WorldWideScience

Sample records for ground rainfall amounts

  1. Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amitai, E.; Wolff, D. B.; Robinson, M.; Silberstein, D. S.; Marks, D. A.; Kulie, M. S.; Fisher, B.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

  2. Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

    Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

  3. Computation of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation amounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel

    2018-10-01

    Rainfall erosivity is an important parameter in many erosion models, and the EI30 defined by the Universal Soil Loss Equation is one of the best known erosivity indices. One issue with this and other erosivity indices is that they require continuous breakpoint, or high frequency time interval, precipitation data. These data are rare, in comparison to more common medium-frequency data, such as daily precipitation data commonly recorded by many national and regional weather services. Devising methods for computing estimates of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation data that are comparable to those obtained by using high-frequency data is, therefore, highly desired. Here we present a method for producing such estimates, based on optimal regression tools such as the Gamma Generalised Linear Model and universal kriging. Unlike other methods, this approach produces unbiased and very close to observed EI30, especially when these are aggregated at the annual level. We illustrate the method with a case study comprising more than 1500 high-frequency precipitation records across Spain. Although the original records have a short span (the mean length is around 10 years), computation of spatially-distributed upscaling parameters offers the possibility to compute high-resolution climatologies of the EI30 index based on currently available, long-span, daily precipitation databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Modelling rainfall amounts using mixed-gamma model for Kuantan district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Moslim, Nor Hafizah

    2017-05-01

    An efficient design of flood mitigation and construction of crop growth models depend upon good understanding of the rainfall process and characteristics. Gamma distribution is usually used to model nonzero rainfall amounts. In this study, the mixed-gamma model is applied to accommodate both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts. The mixed-gamma model presented is for the independent case. The formulae of mean and variance are derived for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables, respectively. Firstly, the gamma distribution is used to model the nonzero rainfall amounts and the parameters of the distribution (shape and scale) are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the mixed-gamma model is defined for both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts simultaneously. The formulae of mean and variance for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables derived are tested using the monthly rainfall amounts from rainfall stations within Kuantan district in Pahang Malaysia. Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, the results demonstrate that the descriptive statistics of the observed sum of rainfall amounts is not significantly different at 5% significance level from the generated sum of independent mixed-gamma variables. The methodology and formulae demonstrated can be applied to find the sum of more than three independent mixed-gamma variables.

  5. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  6. An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Wambui Kimani

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks. Satellite rainfall products can potentially play a role in increasing the spatial coverage of rainfall estimates; however, their performance needs to be understood across space–time scales and factors relating to their errors. This study assesses the performance of seven satellite products: Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT, African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43, Climate Prediction Centre (CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, using locally developed gridded (0.05° rainfall data for 15 years (1998–2012 over East Africa. The products’ assessments were done at monthly and yearly timescales and were remapped to the gridded rain gauge data spatial scale during the March to May (MAM and October to December (OND rainy seasons. A grid-based statistical comparison between the two datasets was used, but only pixel values located at the rainfall stations were considered for validation. Additionally, the impact of topography on the performance of the products was assessed by analyzing the pixels in areas of highest negative bias. All the products could substantially replicate rainfall patterns, but their differences are mainly based on retrieving high rainfall amounts, especially of localized orographic types. The products exhibited systematic errors, which

  7. PATTERNS OF THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS REGISTERED IN 24 HOURS WITHIN THE OLTENIA PLAIN

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    ALINA VLĂDUŢ

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Patterns of the maximum rainfall amounts registered in 24 hours within the Oltenia Plain. The present study aims at rendering the main features of the maximum rainfall amounts registered in 24 h within the Oltenia Plain. We used 30-year time series (1980-2009 for seven meteorological stations. Generally, the maximum amounts in 24 h display the same pattern as the monthly mean amounts, namely higher values in the interval May-October. In terms of mean values, the highest amounts are registered in the western and northern extremity of the plain. The maximum values generally exceed 70 mm at all meteorological stations: D.T. Severin, 224 mm, July 1999; Slatina, 104.8 mm, August 2002; Caracal, 92.2 m, July 1991; Bechet, 80.8 mm, July 2006; Craiova, 77.6 mm, April 2003. During the cold season, there was noticed a greater uniformity all over the plain, due to the cyclonic origin of rainfalls compared to the warm season, when thermal convection is quite active and it triggers local showers. In order to better emphasize the peculiarities of this parameter, we have calculated the frequency on different value classes (eight classes, as well as the probability of appearance of different amounts. Thus, it resulted that the highest frequency (25-35% is held by the first two classes of values (0-10 mm; 10.1-20 mm. The lowest frequency is registered in case of the amounts of more than 100 mm, which generally display a probability of occurrence of less than 1% and only in the western and eastern extremities of the plain.

  8. The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

    2017-11-01

    Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

  9. Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan

    2016-05-17

    In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

  10. Error threshold inference from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data and interpolated ground-based rainfall measurements in Metro Manila

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampil, L. J. Y.; Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is a group of satellites that provides global observations of precipitation. Satellite-based observations act as an alternative if ground-based measurements are inadequate or unavailable. Data provided by satellites however must be validated for this data to be reliable and used effectively. In this study, the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run v3 half-hourly product is validated by comparing against interpolated ground measurements derived from sixteen ground stations in Metro Manila. The area considered in this study is the region 14.4° - 14.8° latitude and 120.9° - 121.2° longitude, subdivided into twelve 0.1° x 0.1° grid squares. Satellite data from June 1 - August 31, 2014 with the data aggregated to 1-day temporal resolution are used in this study. The satellite data is directly compared to measurements from individual ground stations to determine the effect of the interpolation by contrast against the comparison of satellite data and interpolated measurements. The comparisons are calculated by taking a fractional root-mean-square error (F-RMSE) between two datasets. The results show that interpolation improves errors compared to using raw station data except during days with very small amounts of rainfall. F-RMSE reaches extreme values of up to 654 without a rainfall threshold. A rainfall threshold is inferred to remove extreme error values and make the distribution of F-RMSE more consistent. Results show that the rainfall threshold varies slightly per month. The threshold for June is inferred to be 0.5 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 9.78, while the threshold for July and August is inferred to be 0.1 mm, reducing the maximum F-RMSE to 4.8 and 10.7, respectively. The maximum F-RMSE is reduced further as the threshold is increased. Maximum F-RMSE is reduced to 3.06 when a rainfall threshold of 10 mm is applied over the entire duration of JJA. These results indicate that

  11. Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

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    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

  12. Sensitivity of Distributed Hydrologic Simulations to Ground and Satellite Based Rainfall Products

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    Singaiah Chintalapudi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, seven precipitation products (rain gauges, NEXRAD MPE, PERSIANN 0.25 degree, PERSIANN CCS-3hr, PERSIANN CCS-1hr, TRMM 3B42V7, and CMORPH were used to force a physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The model was driven by these products to simulate the hydrologic response of a 1232 km2 watershed in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Storm events in 2007 were used to analyze the precipitation products. Comparison with rain gauge observations reveals that there were significant biases in the satellite rainfall products and large variations in the estimated amounts. The radar basin average precipitation compared very well with the rain gauge product while the gauge-adjusted TRMM 3B42V7 precipitation compared best with observed rainfall among all satellite precipitation products. The NEXRAD MPE simulated streamflows matched the observed ones the best yielding the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency correlation coefficient values for both the July and August 2007 events. Simulations driven by TRMM 3B42V7 matched the observed streamflow better than other satellite products for both events. The PERSIANN coarse resolution product yielded better runoff results than the higher resolution product. The study reveals that satellite rainfall products are viable alternatives when rain gauge or ground radar observations are sparse or non-existent.

  13. Be-7 measured at ground air level and rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damatto, Sandra R.; Souza, Joseilton M.; Frujuele, Jonatan V.; Maduar, Marcelo F.; Leonardo, Lucio; Pecequilo, Brigitte R.S.

    2013-01-01

    The cosmogenic radionuclide 7 Be (T 1/2 = 53.3 d), produced in the upper atmosphere by cosmic ray spallation of oxygen and nitrogen, is one of the cosmogenic radionuclides that can be used as tracer for heavy metals and pollutants in the environment, tracer of soil erosion and sedimentation in lakes, among other examples. Their subsequent deposition to the land surface occurs as both wet and dry fallout, although it has been demonstrated that 7 Be fallout is primarily associated with precipitation. There is limited data on the concentration of 7 Be in rainfall and in particulate in the Southern Hemisphere and in Brazil, compared with data from the Northern Hemisphere. This paper presents the results obtained of 7 Be concentrations measured from April 2011 to June 2013, in samples of air at ground level, each fifteen days, and rainfall in all the rainy events that occurred at Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), which has its campus located in the city of Sao Paulo, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The concentrations of 7 Be were measured by non-destructive gamma-ray spectrometry using an extended range closed-end coaxial Be-layer HPGe detector with 25% relative efficiency and associated electronic devices and live counting time varying from 100,000 s to 300,000 s. The results obtained of 7 Be in particulate and in rainfall were correlated to seasons, precipitation, temperature and sunspot number. The higher values obtained for the concentrations were in spring and summer time presenting good correlations with the amount of precipitation and sunspot number and a clear seasonal variation. (author)

  14. Rainfall over Friuli-Venezia Giulia: High amounts and strong geographical gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceschia, M.; Micheletti, St.; Carniel, R.

    1991-12-01

    The precipitation distribution over Friuli-Venezia Giulia — the easternmost region of Northern Italy extending from the Adriatic Sea to the Alps — has been studied. Monthly rainfall data over the region and the bordering areas of Veneto and Slovenia during the period from 1951 to 1986 have been analyzed by standard statistical methods, including cluster analysis. The overall results emphasize a distribution with rainfall increasing from the sea to the prealpine areas. The highest precipitations were recorded over the Musi-Canin range, with average values exceeding 3 200 mm per year. Noteworthy is the unforeseen subdivision of the region by the clustering procedure by means of the Angot index.

  15. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

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    C. Massari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  16. Detecting trends in 10-day rainfall amounts at five sites in the state ofSão Paulo, Brazil

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    Gabriel Constantino Blain

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The temporal distribution of the rainfall events within a crop growing season plays a crucial role on the crop yield. In this way, the main goal of this study was to evaluate the presence of climate trends in the 10-day rainfall totalsobtained from five weather stations in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (1951-2012.The autocorrelation function, the Run test and the Durbin-Watson test indicateda lack of significant serial correlation in theseseries. The wavelet analysis revealed no conclusive evidence of periodicities in the temporal variability of this variable. According to the Mann-Kendall test, most of the 10-day rainfall amounts obtained from the five weather stations shows no significant trends. However, for the locations of States Campinas, Pindorama and Ribeirão Preto, the significant decreasing trends observed during the 2nd and 3rd ten days of October suggests a possible change in the climatic patterns of these locations, which may be linked to a delay in the return of the rainy season.

  17. Nitrate Accumulation and Leaching in Surface and Ground Water Based on Simulated Rainfall Experiments

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    Wang, Hong; Gao, Jian-en; Li, Xing-hua; Zhang, Shao-long; Wang, Hong-jie

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the process of nitrate accumulation and leaching in surface and ground water, we conducted simulated rainfall experiments. The experiments were performed in areas of 5.3 m2 with bare slopes of 3° that were treated with two nitrogen fertilizer inputs, high (22.5 g/m2 NH4NO3) and control (no fertilizer), and subjected to 2 hours of rainfall, with. From the 1st to the 7th experiments, the same content of fertilizer mixed with soil was uniformly applied to the soil surface at 10 minutes before rainfall, and no fertilizer was applied for the 8th through 12th experiments. Initially, the time-series nitrate concentration in the surface flow quickly increased, and then it rapidly decreased and gradually stabilized at a low level during the fertilizer experiments. The nitrogen loss in the surface flow primarily occurred during the first 18.6 minutes of rainfall. For the continuous fertilizer experiments, the mean nitrate concentrations in the groundwater flow remained at less than 10 mg/L before the 5th experiment, and after the 7th experiment, these nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 mg/L throughout the process. The time-series process of the changing concentration in the groundwater flow exhibited the same parabolic trend for each fertilizer experiment. However, the time at which the nitrate concentration began to change lagged behind the start time of groundwater flow by approximately 0.94 hours on average. The experiments were also performed with no fertilizer. In these experiments, the mean nitrate concentration of groundwater initially increased continuously, and then, the process exhibited the same parabolic trend as the results of the fertilization experiments. The nitrate concentration decreased in the subsequent experiments. Eight days after the 12 rainfall experiments, 50.53% of the total nitrate applied remained in the experimental soil. Nitrate residues mainly existed at the surface and in the bottom soil layers, which represents a

  18. Interaction between the effects of evaporation rate and amount of simulated rainfall on development of the free-living stages of Haemonchus contortus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Lauren J; Kahn, Lewis P; Walkden-Brown, Stephen W

    2008-08-17

    A factorial experiment (3 x 4 x 2 x 3) was conducted in programmable incubators to investigate interaction between the effects of rainfall amount, rainfall distribution and evaporation rate on development of Haemonchus contortus to L3. Sheep faeces containing H. contortus eggs were incubated on sterilised soil under variable temperatures typical of summer in the Northern Tablelands of NSW, Australia. Simulated rainfall was applied in 1 of 3 amounts (12, 24 or 32 mm) and 4 distributions (a single event on the day after deposition, or the same total amount split in 2, 3 or 4 equal events over 2, 3 or 4 days, respectively). Samples were incubated at either a Low or High rate of evaporation (Low: 2.1-3.4 mm/day and High: 3.8-6.1 mm/day), and faeces and soil were destructively sampled at 4, 7 and 14 days post-deposition. Recovery of L3 from the soil (extra-pellet L3) increased over time (up to 0.52% at day 14) and with each increment of rainfall (12 mm: evaporation rate (0.01%) compared with the Low evaporation rate (0.31%). All rainfall amounts yielded significantly different recoveries of L3 under Low evaporation rates but there was no difference between the 12 and 24 mm treatments under the High evaporation rate. The distribution of simulated rainfall did not significantly affect recovery of infective larvae. Faecal moisture content was positively associated with L3 recovery, as was the ratio of cumulative precipitation and cumulative evaporation (P/E), particularly when measured in the first 4 days post-deposition. The results show that evaporation rate plays a significant role in regulating the influence of rainfall amount on the success of L3 transmission.

  19. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

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    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  20. Sensitivity of effective rainfall amount to land use description using GIS tool. Case of a small mediterranean catchment

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    Payraudeau, S.; Tournoud, M. G.; Cernesson, F.

    Distributed modelling in hydrology assess catchment subdivision to take into account physic characteristics. In this paper, we test the effect of land use aggregation scheme on catchment hydrological response. Evolution of intra-subcatchment land use is studied using statistic and entropy methods. The SCS-CN method is used to calculate effective rainfall which is here assimilated to hydrological response. Our purpose is to determine the existence of a critical threshold-area appropriate for the application of hydrological modelling. Land use aggregation effects on effective rainfall is assessed on small mediterranean catchment. The results show that land use aggregation and land use classification type have significant effects on hydrological modelling and in particular on effective rainfall modelling.

  1. An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Kimani, M.W.; Hoedjes, Johannes Cornelis Bernardus; Su, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks. Satellite rainfall products can potentially play a role in increasing the spatial coverage of rainfall estimates; however, their performance needs to be understood across space–time scales and factors...

  2. Potential Impact of Rainfall on the Air-Surface Exchange of Total Gaseous Mercury from Two Common Urban Ground Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of rainfall on total gaseous mercury (TGM) flux from pavement and street dirt surfaces was investigated in an effort to determine the influence of wet weather events on mercury transport in urban watersheds. Street dirt and pavement are common urban ground surfaces tha...

  3. An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kimani, M.W.; Hoedjes, Johannes Cornelis Bernardus; Su, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks.

  4. Development of Deep Learning Based Data Fusion Approach for Accurate Rainfall Estimation Using Ground Radar and Satellite Precipitation Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H.; Chandra, C. V.; Tan, H.; Cifelli, R.; Xie, P.

    2016-12-01

    Rainfall estimation based on onboard satellite measurements has been an important topic in satellite meteorology for decades. A number of precipitation products at multiple time and space scales have been developed based upon satellite observations. For example, NOAA Climate Prediction Center has developed a morphing technique (i.e., CMORPH) to produce global precipitation products by combining existing space based rainfall estimates. The CMORPH products are essentially derived based on geostationary satellite IR brightness temperature information and retrievals from passive microwave measurements (Joyce et al. 2004). Although the space-based precipitation products provide an excellent tool for regional and global hydrologic and climate studies as well as improved situational awareness for operational forecasts, its accuracy is limited due to the sampling limitations, particularly for extreme events such as very light and/or heavy rain. On the other hand, ground-based radar is more mature science for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), especially after the implementation of dual-polarization technique and further enhanced by urban scale radar networks. Therefore, ground radars are often critical for providing local scale rainfall estimation and a "heads-up" for operational forecasters to issue watches and warnings as well as validation of various space measurements and products. The CASA DFW QPE system, which is based on dual-polarization X-band CASA radars and a local S-band WSR-88DP radar, has demonstrated its excellent performance during several years of operation in a variety of precipitation regimes. The real-time CASA DFW QPE products are used extensively for localized hydrometeorological applications such as urban flash flood forecasting. In this paper, a neural network based data fusion mechanism is introduced to improve the satellite-based CMORPH precipitation product by taking into account the ground radar measurements. A deep learning system is

  5. Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayland, J.R.

    1977-03-01

    The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

  6. Amount and distribution of benthic marine litter along Sardinian fishing grounds (CW Mediterranean Sea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvito, Andrea; Bellodi, Andrea; Cau, Alessandro; Moccia, Davide; Mulas, Antonello; Palmas, Francesco; Pesci, Paola; Follesa, Maria Cristina

    2018-02-17

    Reports of marine litter pollution first appeared in scientific literature of the early 1970s; yet, more than 40 years later, no rigorous estimates exist of the amount of litter existing in the marine environment. To cope with this global urgency, this study reports the status of marine litter abundance along fishing grounds surrounding the island of Sardinia (CW Mediterranean Sea; FAO Geographical Sub-Area 11) through three years of trawl surveys. A total of 302 hauls, covering a total of 18.4 km 2 of trawled surface were carried out in the framework of the MEDITS campaign, at depths comprised between 0 and 800 m. A total of 918 items were collected and sorted, with the highest concentration observed above 200 m depth. Overall, plastic was the dominant component of litter, followed by glass and metal. Comparing our results with other areas from the Mediterranean basin, Sardinian waters showed a lower impact, possibly as a consequence of multiple factors such as the lower human population density and the low flow of the main rivers, among others. In addition, fishermen behaviour with respect to marine litter was investigated by mean of anonymous questionnaires, emphasizing the necessity to further develop management policies and infrastructures supporting litter disposal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Below and above-ground carbon distribution along a rainfall gradient. A case of the Zambezi teak forests, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngoma, Justine; Moors, Eddy; Kruijt, Bart; Speer, James H.; Vinya, Royd; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Leemans, Rik

    2018-02-01

    Understanding carbon (C) stocks or biomass in forests is important to examine how forests mitigate climate change. To estimate biomass in stems, branches and roots takes intensive fieldwork to uproot, cut and weigh the mass of each component. Different models or equations are also required. Our research focussed on the dry tropical Zambezi teak forests and we studied their structure at three sites following a rainfall gradient in Zambia. We sampled 3558 trees at 42 plots covering a combined area of 15ha. Using data from destructive tree samples, we developed mixed-species biomass models to estimate above ground biomass for small (forests, thereby adversely affecting their mitigating role in climate change.

  8. Ground-foraging ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae and rainfall effect on pitfall trapping in a deciduous thorn woodland (Caatinga, Northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francyregis A Nunes

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The semi-arid Caatinga is the fourth largest biome of Brazil, which biota still remains one of the most poorly known, especially with regard to invertebrate groups. In this study, a ground-foraging ant assemblage was surveyed during one year and the effect of rainfall on pitfall trapping was assessed. The study was performed in an area located in the municipality of Pentecoste (3º48’ S - 39º20’ W, in the State of Ceará. A 200m transect with 20 equidistant sampling points was established. Transect sampling was performed once a month during 12 months, over the period August 2008-August 2009. At each sampling point, a pitfall trap partially filled with a mixture of ethanol and monoethylene glycol was placed at the beginning of each month and remained in the field for seven days. 39 species belonging to six subfamilies and 19 genera, plus two unidentified species, were collected, with Pheidole (10 spp. and Camponotus (8 spp. being the taxa with the most species. 23 species were frequent, being found in more than 50% of the 12 transect samplings. Five species had an intermediate frequency (25 to 50%, while 13 were relatively infrequent (less than 25%. Most of the species (22 showed low occurrence, being found in less than 10% of the 240 samples (20 samples each month, during 12 months. Only five species were collected in more than 50% of the samples, those species being also responsible for most of the total abundance (number of captured individuals of all species observed each month. The speciesaccumulation curves (observed and estimated indicated that sampling sufficiency was attained, and that about 92% of the estimated ground-foraging ant fauna had been collected. 40 and 29 species were collected in the dry and rainy season, respectively, with monthly species richness ranging from 13 to 28. The total ant abundance showed a drastic decrease during the rainy season, and a negative linear correlation was found between rainfall and total ant

  9. Cross-validation Methodology between Ground and GPM Satellite-based Radar Rainfall Product over Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Metroplex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, V.; Biswas, S.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past two decades, a large number of rainfall products have been developed based on satellite, radar, and/or rain gauge observations. However, to produce optimal rainfall estimation for a given region is still challenging due to the space time variability of rainfall at many scales and the spatial and temporal sampling difference of different rainfall instruments. In order to produce high-resolution rainfall products for urban flash flood applications and improve the weather sensing capability in urban environment, the center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA), in collaboration with National Weather Service (NWS) and North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), has developed an urban radar remote sensing network in DFW Metroplex. DFW is the largest inland metropolitan area in the U.S., that experiences a wide range of natural weather hazards such as flash flood and hailstorms. The DFW urban remote sensing network, centered by the deployment of eight dual-polarization X-band radars and a NWS WSR-88DP radar, is expected to provide impacts-based warning and forecasts for benefit of the public safety and economy. High-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the major goals of the development of this urban test bed. In addition to ground radar-based rainfall estimation, satellite-based rainfall products for this area are also of interest for this study. Typical example is the rainfall rate product produced by the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory satellite. Therefore, cross-comparison between ground and space-based rainfall estimation is critical to building an optimal regional rainfall system, which can take advantages of the sampling differences of different sensors. This paper presents the real-time high-resolution QPE system developed for DFW urban radar network, which is based upon the combination of S-band WSR-88DP and X

  10. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based...

  11. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  12. Ground-foraging ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae and rainfall effect on pitfall trapping in a deciduous thorn woodland (Caatinga, Northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francyregis A Nunes

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The semi-arid Caatinga is the fourth largest biome of Brazil, which biota still remains one of the most poorly known, especially with regard to invertebrate groups. In this study, a ground-foraging ant assemblage was surveyed during one year and the effect of rainfall on pitfall trapping was assessed. The study was performed in an area located in the municipality of Pentecoste (3º48’ S - 39º20’ W, in the State of Ceará. A 200m transect with 20 equidistant sampling points was established. Transect sampling was performed once a month during 12 months, over the period August 2008-August 2009. At each sampling point, a pitfall trap partially filled with a mixture of ethanol and monoethylene glycol was placed at the beginning of each month and remained in the field for seven days. 39 species belonging to six subfamilies and 19 genera, plus two unidentified species, were collected, with Pheidole (10 spp. and Camponotus (8 spp. being the taxa with the most species. 23 species were frequent, being found in more than 50% of the 12 transect samplings. Five species had an intermediate frequency (25 to 50%, while 13 were relatively infrequent (less than 25%. Most of the species (22 showed low occurrence, being found in less than 10% of the 240 samples (20 samples each month, during 12 months. Only five species were collected in more than 50% of the samples, those species being also responsible for most of the total abundance (number of captured individuals of all species observed each month. The speciesaccumulation curves (observed and estimated indicated that sampling sufficiency was attained, and that about 92% of the estimated ground-foraging ant fauna had been collected. 40 and 29 species were collected in the dry and rainy season, respectively, with monthly species richness ranging from 13 to 28. The total ant abundance showed a drastic decrease during the rainy season, and a negative linear correlation was found between rainfall and total ant

  13. Changes in rainfall amount and frequency do not affect the outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa and its neighbouring grasses in two semiarid communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliveres, Santiago; García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the net outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa, our target plant, and different herbaceous neighbours in response to changes in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events during three years. The experiment was conducted in natural and anthropogenic grasslands dominated by a perennial stress-tolerator and ruderal annual species, respectively. In spite of the neutral or positive effects of neighbours on water availability, neighbouring plants reduced the performance of Retama juveniles, suggesting competition for resources other than water. The negative effects of grasses on the photochemical efficiency of Retama juveniles decreased with higher water availabilities or heavier irrigation pulses, depending on the grassland studied; however, these effects did not extent to the survival and growth of Retama juveniles. Our findings show the prevalence of competitive interactions among the studied plants, regardless of the water availability and its temporal pattern. These results suggest that positive interactions may not prevail under harsher conditions when shade-intolerant species are involved. This study could be used to further refine our predictions of how plant-plant interactions will respond to changes in rainfall, either natural or increased by the ongoing climatic change, in ecosystems where grass-shrubs interactions are prevalent. PMID:25914429

  14. Changes in rainfall amount and frequency do not affect the outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa and its neighbouring grasses in two semiarid communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliveres, Santiago; García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    We evaluated the net outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa , our target plant, and different herbaceous neighbours in response to changes in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events during three years. The experiment was conducted in natural and anthropogenic grasslands dominated by a perennial stress-tolerator and ruderal annual species, respectively. In spite of the neutral or positive effects of neighbours on water availability, neighbouring plants reduced the performance of Retama juveniles, suggesting competition for resources other than water. The negative effects of grasses on the photochemical efficiency of Retama juveniles decreased with higher water availabilities or heavier irrigation pulses, depending on the grassland studied; however, these effects did not extent to the survival and growth of Retama juveniles. Our findings show the prevalence of competitive interactions among the studied plants, regardless of the water availability and its temporal pattern. These results suggest that positive interactions may not prevail under harsher conditions when shade-intolerant species are involved. This study could be used to further refine our predictions of how plant-plant interactions will respond to changes in rainfall, either natural or increased by the ongoing climatic change, in ecosystems where grass-shrubs interactions are prevalent.

  15. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  16. Rainfall: State of the Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

  17. How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be

  18. The influence of the intensity of use, rainfall and location in the amount of marine debris in four beaches in Niteroi, Brazil: Sossego, Camboinhas, Charitas and Flechas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Melanie Lopes da; Sales, Alessandro Souza; Martins, Suzane; Castro, Rebeca de Oliveira; Araújo, Fábio Vieira de

    2016-01-01

    The presence of marine debris in coastal and oceanic regions is a worldwide and growing problem and own to different factors. In order to check the influence of some of these factors in the amount of debris in these areas, we quantified and identified marine debris found on sand of four beaches in the city of Niterói, RJ during dry and rainy seasons; two in oceanic region and two in Guanabara Bay, and observed the intensity of use of them by people. Our results showed that intensity of use and intensity of rain had influence in the presence and amount of solid waste collected. Environmental education campaigns and improvements in basic sanitation are extremely necessary to prevent the pollution of aquatic environments and get improvements on waste management in the cities of Niterói, RJ. - Highlights: • Plastic were the most frequent item. • Ocean beaches had the highest amounts of marine debris in units and kg. • The intensity of use influenced the amount of debris found. • The largest amount of residue was found in the rainy period.

  19. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  20. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  1. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  2. Evaluation of rainfall infiltration characteristics in a volcanic ash soil by time domain reflectometry method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hasegawa

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Time domain reflectometry (TDR was used to monitor soil water conditions and to evaluate infiltration characteristics associated with rainfall into a volcanic-ash soil (Hydric Hapludand with a low bulk density. Four 1 m TDR probes were installed vertically along a 6 m line in a bare field. Three 30 cm and one 60 cm probes were installed between the 1 m probes. Soil water content was measured every half or every hour throughout the year. TDR enabled prediction of the soil water content precisely even though the empirical equation developed by Topp et al. (1980 underestimated the water content. Field capacity, defined as the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m on the day following heavy rainfall, was 640 mm. There was approximately 100 mm difference in the amount of water stored between field capacity and the driest period. Infiltration characteristics of rainfall were investigated for 36 rainfall events exceeding 10 mm with a total amount of rain of 969 mm out of an annual rainfall of 1192 mm. In the case of 25 low intensity rainfall events with less than 10 mm h-1 on to dry soils, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was equal to the cumulative rainfall. For rain intensity in excess of 10 mm h-1, non-uniform infiltration occurred. The increase in the amount of water stored at lower elevation locations was 1.4 to 1.6 times larger than at higher elevation locations even though the difference in ground height among the 1 m probes was 6 cm. In the two instances when rainfall exceeded 100 mm, including the amount of rain in a previous rainfall event, the increase in the amount of water stored to a depth of 1 m was 65 mm lower than the total quantity of rain on the two occasions (220 mm; this indicated that 65 mm of water or 5.5% of the annual rainfall had flowed away either by surface runoff or bypass flow. Hence, approximately 95% of the annual rainfall was absorbed by the soil matrix but it is not possible to simulate

  3. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  4. Typhoon-Induced Ground Deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouyen, M.; Canitano, A.; Chao, B. F.; Hsu, Y.-J.; Steer, P.; Longuevergne, L.; Boy, J.-P.

    2017-11-01

    Geodetic instruments now offer compelling sensitivity, allowing to investigate how solid Earth and surface processes interact. By combining surface air pressure data, nontidal sea level variations model, and rainfall data, we systematically analyze the volumetric deformation of the shallow crust at seven borehole strainmeters in Taiwan induced by 31 tropical cyclones (typhoons) that made landfall to the island from 2004 to 2013. The typhoon's signature consists in a ground dilatation due to air pressure drop, generally followed by a larger ground compression. We show that this compression phase can be mostly explained by the mass loading of rainwater that falls on the ground and concentrates in the valleys towards the strainmeter sensitivity zone. Further, our analysis shows that borehole strainmeters can help quantifying the amount of rainwater accumulating and flowing over a watershed during heavy rainfalls, which is a useful constraint for building hydrological models.

  5. Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering t...

  6. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  7. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  8. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.

    1996-01-01

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  9. Ultraviolet-B Radiation and Nitrogen Affect Nutrient Concentrations and the Amount of Nutrients Acquired by Above-Ground Organs of Maize

    OpenAIRE

    Correia, Carlos M.; Coutinho, João F.; Bacelar, Eunice A.; Gonçalves, Berta M.; Björn, Lars Olof; Moutinho Pereira, José

    2012-01-01

    UV-B radiation effects on nutrient concentrations in above-ground organs of maize were investigated at silking and maturity at different levels of applied nitrogen under field conditions. The experiment simulated a 20% stratospheric ozone depletion over Portugal. At silking, UV-B increased N, K, Ca, and Zn concentrations, whereas at maturity Ca, Mg, Zn, and Cu increased and N, P and Mn decreased in some plant organs. Generally, at maturity, N, Ca, Cu, and Mn were lower, while P, K, and Zn con...

  10. Some observations of the variations in natural gamma radiation due to rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minato, S.

    1980-01-01

    Results of observations of variations in natural gamma-radiation flux densities due to rainfall are presented and discussed in relation to rate of rainfall. Variations of fluences with amounts of rainfall are also described. It is concluded that the frequency distribution of the ratio of the fluence to the amount of rainfall has a trend to be lognormal

  11. Ultraviolet-B radiation and nitrogen affect nutrient concentrations and the amount of nutrients acquired by above-ground organs of maize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Carlos M; Coutinho, João F; Bacelar, Eunice A; Gonçalves, Berta M; Björn, Lars Olof; Moutinho Pereira, José

    2012-01-01

    UV-B radiation effects on nutrient concentrations in above-ground organs of maize were investigated at silking and maturity at different levels of applied nitrogen under field conditions. The experiment simulated a 20% stratospheric ozone depletion over Portugal. At silking, UV-B increased N, K, Ca, and Zn concentrations, whereas at maturity Ca, Mg, Zn, and Cu increased and N, P and Mn decreased in some plant organs. Generally, at maturity, N, Ca, Cu, and Mn were lower, while P, K, and Zn concentrations in stems and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) were higher in N-starved plants. UV-B and N effects on shoot dry biomass were more pronounced than on nutrient concentrations. Nutrient uptake decreased under high UV-B and increased with increasing N application, mainly at maturity harvest. Significant interactions UV-B x N were observed for NUE and for concentration and mass of some elements. For instance, under enhanced UV-B, N, Cu, Zn, and Mn concentrations decreased in leaves, except on N-stressed plants, whereas they were less affected by N nutrition. In order to minimize nutritional, economical, and environmental negative consequences, fertiliser recommendations based on element concentration or yield goals may need to be adjusted.

  12. Ultraviolet-B Radiation and Nitrogen Affect Nutrient Concentrations and the Amount of Nutrients Acquired by Above-Ground Organs of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos M. Correia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available UV-B radiation effects on nutrient concentrations in above-ground organs of maize were investigated at silking and maturity at different levels of applied nitrogen under field conditions. The experiment simulated a 20% stratospheric ozone depletion over Portugal. At silking, UV-B increased N, K, Ca, and Zn concentrations, whereas at maturity Ca, Mg, Zn, and Cu increased and N, P and Mn decreased in some plant organs. Generally, at maturity, N, Ca, Cu, and Mn were lower, while P, K, and Zn concentrations in stems and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE were higher in N-starved plants. UV-B and N effects on shoot dry biomass were more pronounced than on nutrient concentrations. Nutrient uptake decreased under high UV-B and increased with increasing N application, mainly at maturity harvest. Significant interactions UV-B x N were observed for NUE and for concentration and mass of some elements. For instance, under enhanced UV-B, N, Cu, Zn, and Mn concentrations decreased in leaves, except on N-stressed plants, whereas they were less affected by N nutrition. In order to minimize nutritional, economical, and environmental negative consequences, fertiliser recommendations based on element concentration or yield goals may need to be adjusted.

  13. Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

  14. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

  15. FROM RAINFALL DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  16. Estimation of potential rainfall recharge in the pothwar area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afzal, M.; Yaseen, M.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater recharge is complex phenomenon to understand and describe because it cannot be seen with open eyes. We have to depend some theoretical assumptions to understand this complicated hidden natural underground water movement process. There are many factors affecting and controlling the water movement in soil profile. Groundwater use in district chakwal is of a fundamental importance to meet the rapidly expanding drinking and agricultural water requirements. The man factors contributing to groundwater recharge in chakwal are rainfall, evapotranspiration and geology. due to the semi arid climatic conditions of the area, this resource is almost the only key to economic development. There are a number of dug wells in the area where water is getting stored during rainy season. source and processes of recharge in humid areas are different compared with semi-arid areas. Due to the main resource of available water in the area, the potential groundwater recharge estimation could be good exercise to visulize the amount of rainwater entering the ground. For groundwater recharge estimation there are a number of simple and advanced techniques available. In the present study simple methods were used to estimate potential recharge due to available limited resources. Rainfall runoff, gravimetric and water table fluctuation methods were used to quantify rainfall recharge during the monsoon season. The average potential recharge estimated was 60% of the rainfall of 148 mm. Rainfall runoff and gravimetric methods were found to be comparable for short period potential recharge estimation while water table fluctuation method gives actual recharge and require longer period data. Potential recharge values were higher for area having grassland type vegetation and low for area covering shrubs and tick vegetation. (author)

  17. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-07-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972 2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.

  18. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-01-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

  19. Lixiviação de potássio da palha de espécies de cobertura de solo de acordo com a quantidade de chuva aplicada Potassium leaching from green cover crop residues as affected by rainfall amount

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Rosolem

    2003-04-01

    vulgare, black oat (Avena strigosa, triticale (Triticum secale, Indian hemp (Crotalaria juncea and brachiaria (Brachiaria decumbens were grown under greenhouse conditions in pots with soil, in Botucatu, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Forty-five days after emergence, the plants were cut, dried and placed in PVC rings, simulating an amount of 8 t ha-1 of straw. Rainfalls of 4.4, 8.7, 17.4, 34.9, and 69.8 mm were applied. The straws retained up to 3.0 mm of water, irrespective of the plant species, and rains of 5 mm did not cause K leaching. Maximum K leaching per rain unit was observed for rainfalls around 20 mm, and decreased under heavier rainfalls. The amount of K released from the straw right after preparation is species-dependent, but is always below 24.0 kg ha-1 under rains up to 70 mm, and positively related with tissue nutrient contents. Triticale and black oats are more efficient at recycling K.

  20. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

    2015-10-01

    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  1. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  2. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Zulkarnain

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  3. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

    2018-03-01

    The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  4. Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Bunmi Ogungbenro; Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo

    2014-01-01

    Nigerian agriculture is mainly rain-fed and basically dependent on the vagaries of weather especially rainfall. Nigeria today has about forty-four (44) weather observation stations which provide measurement of rainfall amount for different locations across the country. Hence, this study investigates change detection in rainfall pattern over each climatic zone of Nigeria. Data were collected for 90 years (1910–1999) period for all the weather observation stations in Nigeria, while a subdivisio...

  5. Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

    2016-10-01

    One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

  6. Retrieval algorithm for rainfall mapping from microwave links in a cellular communication network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2016-01-01

    Microwave links in commercial cellular communication networks hold a promise for areal rainfall monitoring and could complement rainfall estimates from ground-based weather radars, rain gauges, and satellites. It has been shown that country-wide (≈ 35 500 km2) 15 min rainfall maps can

  7. Fitting the Statistical Distribution for Daily Rainfall in Ibadan, Based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... Abstract. This paper presents several types of statistical distributions to describe rainfall distribution in Ibadan metropolis over a period of 30 years. The exponential, gamma, normal and poison distributions are compared to identify the optimal model for daily rainfall amount based on data recorded at rain ...

  8. Analysis of Rainfall Variations and Trends in Coastal Tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation ... island of Mafia receives the highest amount of rainfall (1879 mm p.a.) while Kilwa. Masoko receives the ... However, the effects of the Pacific .... an important role in terrestrial and marine .... and ENSO, the largest coefficient being .... rainfall on the small islands of Southeast Asia.

  9. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to the performance of summer monsoon rain- fall over India. Variations in the total amount of rainfall have strong socio-economic consequences. Parthasarathy et al .... deviation of rainfall for training period 1961–1995, are 838.4 mm and 89.3 mm respectively. The period. 1949–1960 and 1996–2005 is used for independent.

  10. Comparison of mass transport using average and transient rainfall boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duguid, J.O.; Reeves, M.

    1976-01-01

    A general two-dimensional model for simulation of saturated-unsaturated transport of radionuclides in ground water has been developed and is currently being tested. The model is being applied to study the transport of radionuclides from a waste-disposal site where field investigations are currently under way to obtain the necessary model parameters. A comparison of the amount of tritium transported is made using both average and transient rainfall boundary conditions. The simulations indicate that there is no substantial difference in the transport for the two conditions tested. However, the values of dispersivity used in the unsaturated zone caused more transport above the water table than has been observed under actual conditions. This deficiency should be corrected and further comparisons should be made before average rainfall boundary conditions are used for long-term transport simulations

  11. Effect of Incident Rainfall Redistribution by Maize Canopy on Soil Moisture at the Crop Row Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Martello

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The optimization of irrigation use in agriculture is a key challenge to increase farm profitability and reduce its ecological footprint. To this context, an understanding of more efficient irrigation systems includes the assessment of water redistribution at the microscale. This study aimed to investigate rainfall interception by maize canopy and to model the soil water dynamics at row scale as a result of rain and sprinkler irrigation with HYDRUS 2D/3D. On average, 78% of rainfall below the maize canopy was intercepted by the leaves and transferred along the stem (stemflow, while only 22% reached the ground directly (throughfall. In addition, redistribution of the water with respect to the amount (both rain and irrigation showed that the stemflow/throughfall ratio decreased logarithmically at increasing values of incident rainfall, suggesting the plant capacity to confine the water close to the roots and diminish water stress conditions. This was also underlined by higher soil moisture values observed in the row than in the inter-row at decreasing rainfall events. Modelled data highlighted different behavior in terms of soil water dynamics between simulated irrigation water distributions, although they did not show significant changes in terms of crop water use efficiency. These results were most likely affected by the soil type (silty-loam where the experiment was conducted, as it had unfavorable physical conditions for the rapid vertical water movement that would have increased infiltration and drainage.

  12. Radioactive pollution in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemtland, R.

    1985-01-01

    Routine measurements of radioactivity in rainfall are carried out at the National Institute for Radiation Hygiene, Norway. The report discusses why the method of ion exchange was selected and gives details on how the measurements are performed

  13. Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

    1993-12-01

    An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

  14. Characterisation of Hydrological Response to Rainfall at Multi Spatio-Temporal Scales in Savannas of Semi-Arid Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Jarihani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall is the main driver of hydrological processes in dryland environments and characterising the rainfall variability and processes of runoff generation are critical for understanding ecosystem function of catchments. Using remote sensing and in situ data sets, we assess the spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall, rainfall–runoff response, and effects on runoff coefficients of antecedent soil moisture and ground cover at different spatial scales. This analysis was undertaken in the Upper Burdekin catchment, northeast Australia, which is a major contributor of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. The high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall are found to exert significant controls on runoff generation processes. Rainfall amount and intensity are the primary runoff controls, and runoff coefficients for wet antecedent conditions were higher than for dry conditions. The majority of runoff occurred via surface runoff generation mechanisms, with subsurface runoff likely contributing little runoff due to the intense nature of rainfall events. MODIS monthly ground cover data showed better results in distinguishing effects of ground cover on runoff that Landsat-derived seasonal ground cover data. We conclude that in the range of moderate to large catchments (193–36,260 km2 runoff generation processes are sensitive to both antecedent soil moisture and ground cover. A higher runoff–ground cover correlation in drier months with sparse ground cover highlighted the critical role of cover at the onset of the wet season (driest period and how runoff generation is more sensitive to cover in drier months than in wetter months. The monthly water balance analysis indicates that runoff generation in wetter months (January and February is partially influenced by saturation overland flow, most likely confined to saturated soils in riparian corridors, swales, and areas of shallow soil. By March and continuing through October

  15. Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Hearman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k* and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4 and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2 for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g* and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2. Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time

  16. Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Christofer Kristo; Harianto Rahardjo; Alfrendo Satyanaga

    2017-01-01

    Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall d...

  17. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-02-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

  18. Rainfall simulation experiments in the Southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch rainfall simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semi-arid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30% of the plots simulations were conducted up to five time...

  19. Hydrological Effects of Historic Rainfall on the Waccamaw River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, J.; Bao, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the overall water budget of the Waccamaw River during and after a historic rainfall event related to Hurricane Joaquin, producing a 1000-year rainfall event. While rainfall is the only input, it enters the basin through various means. Some rainwater enters the soil as soil moisture while rainfall also goes underground and enters the river channels from underground, which is defined as bucket in. Over time, the rainfall was removed from the river site through various natural processes. Those processes, including evaporation, soil storage as soil moisture, discharge runoff through the river channel, among others, were modeled and validated against the USGS gauge stations. The validated model results were then used to estimate the hydrological response of the Waccamaw River to the rainfall event and determine the overall water budget. The experiment was completed using a WRF-Hydro modeling system for the purposes of weather forecasting and meteorological analysis. Upon completion of the data analysis, the WRF-Hydro model result showed that large amounts of rainfall were variously dispersed through the aforementioned areas. It was determined that after entering the soil rainfall predominantly left the river basin by discharge, while evaporation accounted for the second most common destination of rainfall. Base flow also accounted for a destination of rainfall, though not as much as those previously mentioned.

  20. Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

  1. Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

  2. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  3. The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Suradi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin. The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern.

  4. A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Aran, Montserrat; Amaro, Jéssica; Gayà, Miquel; Arús, Joan; Montanyà, Joan; der Velde, Oscar van

    2011-06-01

    This study presents an analysis of a severe weather case that took place during the early morning of the 2nd of November 2008, when intense convective activity associated with a rapidly evolving low pressure system affected the southern coast of Catalonia (NE Spain). The synoptic framework was dominated by an upper level trough and an associated cold front extending from Gibraltar along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula to SE France, which moved north-eastward. South easterly winds in the north of the Balearic Islands and the coast of Catalonia favoured high values of 0-3 km storm relative helicity which combined with moderate MLCAPE values and high shear favoured the conditions for organized convection. A number of multicell storms and others exhibiting supercell features, as indicated by Doppler radar observations, clustered later in a mesoscale convective system, and moved north-eastwards across Catalonia. They produced ground-level strong damaging wind gusts, an F2 tornado, hail and heavy rainfall. Total lightning activity (intra-cloud and cloud to ground flashes) was also relevant, exhibiting several classical features such as a sudden increased rate before ground level severe damage, as discussed in a companion study. Remarkable surface observations of this event include 24 h precipitation accumulations exceeding 100 mm in four different observatories and 30 minute rainfall amounts up to 40 mm which caused local flash floods. As the convective system evolved northward later that day it also affected SE France causing large hail, ground level damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

  5. Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES): A product of a high temporal resolution rainfall data collection in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the

  6. Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

    2013-01-01

    The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

  7. Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

    2018-02-01

    There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

  8. Fine-tuning satellite-based rainfall estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsa, Hastuadi; Buono, Agus; Hidayat, Rahmat; Achyar, Jaumil; Noviati, Sri; Kurniawan, Roni; Praja, Alfan S.

    2018-05-01

    Rainfall datasets are available from various sources, including satellite estimates and ground observation. The locations of ground observation scatter sparsely. Therefore, the use of satellite estimates is advantageous, because satellite estimates can provide data on places where the ground observations do not present. However, in general, the satellite estimates data contain bias, since they are product of algorithms that transform the sensors response into rainfall values. Another cause may come from the number of ground observations used by the algorithms as the reference in determining the rainfall values. This paper describe the application of bias correction method to modify the satellite-based dataset by adding a number of ground observation locations that have not been used before by the algorithm. The bias correction was performed by utilizing Quantile Mapping procedure between ground observation data and satellite estimates data. Since Quantile Mapping required mean and standard deviation of both the reference and the being-corrected data, thus the Inverse Distance Weighting scheme was applied beforehand to the mean and standard deviation of the observation data in order to provide a spatial composition of them, which were originally scattered. Therefore, it was possible to provide a reference data point at the same location with that of the satellite estimates. The results show that the new dataset have statistically better representation of the rainfall values recorded by the ground observation than the previous dataset.

  9. Rainfall Stochastic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  10. Runoff Calculation by Neural Networks Using Radar Rainfall Data

    OpenAIRE

    岡田, 晋作; 四俵, 正俊

    1997-01-01

    Neural networks, are used to calculate runoff from weather radar data and ground rain gauge data. Compared to usual runoff models, it is easier to use radar data in neural network runoff calculation. Basically you can use the radar data directly, or without transforming them into rainfall, as the input of the neural network. A situation with the difficulty of ground measurement is supposed. To cover the area lacking ground rain gauge, radar data are used. In case that the distribution of grou...

  11. Water budget for SRP burial ground area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubbard, J.E.; Emslie, R.H.

    1984-01-01

    Radionuclide migration from the SRP burial ground for solid low-level waste has been studied extensively. Most of the buried radionuclides are fixed on the soil and show negligible movement. The major exception is tritium, which when leached from the waste by percolating rainfall, forms tritiated water and moves with the groundwater. The presence of tritium has been useful in tracing groundwater flow paths to outcrop. A subsurface tritium plume moving from the southwest corner of the burial ground toward an outcrop near Four Mile Creek has been defined. Groundwater movement is so slow that much of the tritium decays before reaching the outcrop. The burial ground tritium plume defined to date is virtually all in the uppermost sediment layer, the Barnwell Formation. The purpose of the study reported in this memorandum was to investigate the hypothesis that deeper flow paths, capable of carrying substantial amounts of tritium, may exist in the vicinity of the burial ground. As a first step in seeking deeper flow paths, a water budget was constructed for the burial ground site. The water budget, a materials balance used by hydrologists, is expressed in annual area inches of rainfall. Components of the water budget for the burial ground area were analyzed to determine whether significant flow paths may exist below the tan clay. Mean annual precipitation was estimated as 47 inches, with evapotranspiration, run-off, and groundwater recharge estimated as 30, 2, and 15 inches, respectively. These estimates, when combined with groundwater discharge data, suggest that 5 inches of the groundwater recharge flow above the tan clay and that 10 inches flow below the tan clay. Therefore, two-thirds of the groundwater recharge appears to follow flow paths that are deeper than those previously found. 13 references, 10 figures, 5 tables

  12. Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

    1997-05-01

    Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

  13. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...... this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...

  14. Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

  15. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  16. Response of runoff and soil loss to reforestation and rainfall type in red soil region of southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhigang; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Li, Fengrui; Zheng, Hua; Wang, Xiaoke

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term effects of reforestation types on soil erosion on degraded land, vegetation and soil properties under conventional sloping farmland (CSF) and three different reforestation types including a Pinus massoniana secondary forest (PSF), an Eucommia ulmoides artificial economic forest (EEF) and a natural succession type forest (NST), were investigated at runoff plot scale over a six-year period in a red soil region of southern China. One hundred and thirty erosive rainfall events generating runoff in plots were grouped into four rainfall types by means of K-mean clustering method. Erosive rainfall type I is the dominant rainfall type. The amount of runoff and the soil loss under erosive rainfall type III were the most, followed by rain-fall type II, IV and I. Compared with CSF treatment, reforestation treatments decreased the average annual runoff depth and the soil loss by 25.5%-61.8% and 93.9%-96.2% during the study period respectively. Meanwhile, runoff depth at PSF and EEF treatments was significantly lower than that in NST treatment, but no significant difference existed in soil erosion modulus among the three reforestation treatments. This is mainly due to the improved vegetation properties (i.e., vegetation coverage, biomass of above- and below-ground and litter-fall mass) and soil properties (i.e., bulk density, total porosity, infiltration rate and organic carbon content) in the three reforestation treatments compared to CSF treatment. The PSF and EEF are recommended as the preferred reforestation types to control runoff and soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, with the NST potentially being used as an important supplement.

  17. Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

    2018-05-01

    Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

  18. Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

    2013-04-01

    Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

  19. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

    2016-06-01

    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  20. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  1. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  2. Multisite rainfall downscaling and disaggregation in a tropical urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.

    2014-02-01

    A systematic downscaling-disaggregation study was conducted over Singapore Island, with an aim to generate high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data under future climate-change conditions. The study consisted of two major components. The first part was to perform an inter-comparison of various alternatives of downscaling and disaggregation methods based on observed data. This included (i) single-site generalized linear model (GLM) plus K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (S-G-K) vs. multisite GLM (M-G) for spatial downscaling, (ii) HYETOS vs. KNN for single-site disaggregation, and (iii) KNN vs. MuDRain (Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation tool) for multisite disaggregation. The results revealed that, for multisite downscaling, M-G performs better than S-G-K in covering the observed data with a lower RMSE value; for single-site disaggregation, KNN could better keep the basic statistics (i.e. standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of wet hour) than HYETOS; for multisite disaggregation, MuDRain outperformed KNN in fitting interstation correlations. In the second part of the study, an integrated downscaling-disaggregation framework based on M-G, KNN, and MuDRain was used to generate hourly rainfall at multiple sites. The results indicated that the downscaled and disaggregated rainfall data based on multiple ensembles from HadCM3 for the period from 1980 to 2010 could well cover the observed mean rainfall amount and extreme data, and also reasonably keep the spatial correlations both at daily and hourly timescales. The framework was also used to project future rainfall conditions under HadCM3 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. It was indicated that the annual rainfall amount could reduce up to 5% at the end of this century, but the rainfall of wet season and extreme hourly rainfall could notably increase.

  3. A technique to obtain a multiparameter radar rainfall algorithm using the probability matching procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorgucci, E.; Scarchilli, G.

    1997-01-01

    The natural cumulative distributions of rainfall observed by a network of rain gauges and a multiparameter radar are matched to derive multiparameter radar algorithms for rainfall estimation. The use of multiparameter radar measurements in a statistical framework to estimate rainfall is resented in this paper, The techniques developed in this paper are applied to the radar and rain gauge measurement of rainfall observed in central Florida and central Italy. Conventional pointwise estimates of rainfall are also compared. The probability matching procedure, when applied to the radar and surface measurements, shows that multiparameter radar algorithms can match the probability distribution function better than the reflectivity-based algorithms. It is also shown that the multiparameter radar algorithm derived matching the cumulative distribution function of rainfall provides more accurate estimates of rainfall on the ground in comparison to any conventional reflectivity-based algorithm

  4. Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Ayehu, Getachew Tesfaye; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Gessesse, Berhan; Dinku, Tufa

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through...

  5. Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

    OpenAIRE

    Tarnavsky, Elena; Grimes, David; Maidment, Ross; Black, Emily; Allan, Richard; Stringer, Marc; Chadwick, Robin; Kayitakire, Francois

    2014-01-01

    Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the produ...

  6. Numerical simulation of scouring-deposition variations caused by rainfall-induced landslides in the upstream of Zengwun River, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming-Hsi; Liao, Yi-Wen; Tsai, Kuang-Jung

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, the increasing sediment disasters of severe rainfall-induced landslides on human lives and lifeline facilities worldwide have advanced the necessity to find out both economically acceptable and useful techniques to predict the occurrence and destructive power of the disasters. In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot brought a large amount of rainfall with both high intensity and long duration to a vast area of Taiwan. Unfortunately, this resulted in a catastrophic landslide in watershed of Zengwun-River reservoir, southern Taiwan. Meanwhile, large amounts of landslides were formed in the upstream of Zengwun River. The major scope of this study is to apply numerical model to simulate the scouring-deposition variations caused by rainfall-induced landslides that occurred in the upstream of Zengwun River during Typhoon Morakot. This study proposed the relation diagrams of the intermediate diameter (d50), recurrence interval (T) and scouring-deposition depth (D), and applied the diagrams to understand the impacts of the scouring-deposition variations on the structures for water and soil conservation and their measurements. Based on the simulation of scouring-deposition variation at the Da-Bu dam and Da-Bang dam, this study also discussed the scouring-deposition variations of different sections under different scenarios (including flow rate, intermediate diameters and structures). In summary, the result suggested that the diagrams of the intermediate diameter, recurrence interval and scouring-deposition depth could be used as the reference for designing the check dams, ground sills and lateral constructions.

  7. Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

  8. Feasibility of In-Situ Aeration of Old Dumping Ground for Land Reclamation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan-Huan Tong

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Dumping grounds are characterized by the absence of engineering controls such as base liners and cover layer. Consequently, these dumping grounds present risks for surrounding resources such as soil, groundwater and air. The concern for groundwater contamination by leachate from tropical dumping grounds is heightened due to the greater amounts of rainfall and subsequent infiltration and percolation through the waste mass. The emergent demand for old dumping grounds reclamation drives the need to employ remediation technologies. Generally, in-situ aeration is a remediation method that promotes aerobic conditions in the later stage of dumping ground. It accelerates carbon transfer, reduces remaining organic load, and generally shortens the post closure period. However, high rainfall in tropical areas straitens this technique. For example, pollutants could be easily flushed out and more energy should be required to overcome hydrostatic pressure. Although heavy rainfall could supply sufficient water to the substrate and accelerate degradation of organic matter, it may inhibit aerobic activities due to limited air transfer. The waste characterization from Lorong Halus Dumping Ground (closed dumping ground in Singapore showed that the waste materials were stabilized after 22 years closure. According to the Waste Acceptance Criteria set by European Communities Council, the waste materials could be classified as inert wastes. One interesting finding was that leachate layer detected was about of 5 - 8 meter depth, which entirely soaked the waste materials. Hence, the reclamation design and operation should be carefully adjusted according to these characters. Lorong Halus Dumping Ground case study can provide a guideline for other tropical closed landfills or dumping grounds.

  9. Assessment of the use of remotely sensed rainfall products for runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this research is to compare the performance of SWAT model using rainfall input data from remotely sensed and ground measured data for Gilgel abbay catchment. Based on the results obtained, it can be said that SWAT model yields good results for the satellite rainfall input data when compared to in ...

  10. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  11. Wheat yield vulnerability: relation to rainfall and suggestions for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Tafoughalti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Wheat production is of paramount importance in the region of Meknes, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions. It is the dominant cereal, the greater proportion being the soft type. During the past few decades, rainfall flaws have caused a number of cases of droughts. These flaws have seriously affecting wheat production. The main objective of this study is the assessment of rainfall variability at monthly, seasonal and annual scales and to determine their impact on wheat yields. To reduce this impact we suggested some mechanisms of adaptation. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model to evaluate the impact of rainfall on wheat yields. Data analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that soft wheat and hard wheat are strongly correlated with the period of January to March than with the whole growing-season. While they are adversely correlated with the mid-spring. This investigation concluded that synchronizing appropriate adaptation with the period of January to March was crucial to achieving success yield of wheat.

  12. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961–1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through ...

  13. The Impact of Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming; Surratt, Jason; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, deep convective cloudiness, as well as rainfall occurrence, all increase over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions. This is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift toward afternoon hours in the deforested and savanna regions, compared to the forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that only in August did rainfall amounts increase over the deforested region.

  14. Acidity in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tisue, G.T.; Kacoyannakis, J.

    1975-01-01

    The reported increasing acidity of rainfall raises many interesting ecological and chemical questions. In spite of extensive studies in Europe and North America there are, for example, great uncertainties in the relative contributions of strong and weak acids to the acid-base properties of rainwater. Unravelling this and similar problems may require even more rigorous sample collection and analytical procedures than previously employed. Careful analysis of titration curves permits inferences to be made regarding chemical composition, the possible response of rainwater to further inputs of acidic components to the atmosphere, and the behavior to be expected when rainwater interacts with the buffers present in biological materials and natural waters. Rainwater samples collected during several precipitation events at Argonne National Laboratory during October and November 1975 have been analyzed for pH, acid and base neutralizing properties, and the ions of ammonium, nitrate, chloride, sulfate, and calcium. The results are tabulated

  15. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  16. Improving the extreme rainfall forecast of Typhoon Morakot (2009) by assimilating radar data from Taiwan Island and mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Xuwei; Wu, Dan; Lei, Xiaotu; Ma, Leiming; Wang, Dongliang; Zhao, Kun; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao

    2017-08-01

    This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from mainland China and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot (2009). The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation (VDA) are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot's northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation (ZDA). As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister (drier) initial field with (without) ZDA will produce a more southward (northward) track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity (strong convection) observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait.

  17. A Machine Learning-based Rainfall System for GPM Dual-frequency Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, H.; Chandrasekar, V.; Chen, H.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation measurement produced by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) plays an important role in researching the water circle and forecasting extreme weather event. Compare with its predecessor - Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR), GRM DPR measures precipitation in two different frequencies (i.e., Ku and Ka band), which can provide detailed information on the microphysical properties of precipitation particles, quantify particle size distribution and quantitatively measure light rain and falling snow. This paper presents a novel Machine Learning system for ground-based and space borne radar rainfall estimation. The system first trains ground radar data for rainfall estimation using rainfall measurements from gauges and subsequently uses the ground radar based rainfall estimates to train GPM DPR data in order to get space based rainfall product. Therein, data alignment between space DPR and ground radar is conducted using the methodology proposed by Bolen and Chandrasekar (2013), which can minimize the effects of potential geometric distortion of GPM DPR observations. For demonstration purposes, rainfall measurements from three rain gauge networks near Melbourne, Florida, are used for training and validation purposes. These three gauge networks, which are located in Kennedy Space Center (KSC), South Florida Water Management District (SFL), and St. Johns Water Management District (STJ), include 33, 46, and 99 rain gauge stations, respectively. Collocated ground radar observations from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Melbourne (i.e., KMLB radar) are trained with the gauge measurements. The trained model is then used to derive KMLB radar based rainfall product, which is used to train GPM DPR data collected from coincident overpasses events. The machine learning based rainfall product is compared against the GPM standard products

  18. Rainfall erosivity factor estimation in Republic of Moldova

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castraveš, Tudor; Kuhn, Nikolaus

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity represents a measure of the erosive force of rainfall. Typically, it is expressed as variable such as the R factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1965, 1978) or its derivates. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event (EI30) is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 minutes intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable for wide regions and countries. Usually, there are three issues regarding precipitation data: low temporal resolution, low spatial density and limited access to the data. This is especially true for some of postsoviet countries from Eastern Europe, such as Republic of Moldova, where soil erosion is a real and persistent problem (Summer, 2003) and where soils represents the main natural resource of the country. Consequently, researching and managing soil erosion is particularly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a model based on commonly available rainfall data, such as event, daily or monthly amounts, to calculate rainfall erosivity for the territory of Republic of Moldova. Rainfall data collected during 1994-2015 period at 15 meteorological stations in the Republic of Moldova, with 10 minutes temporal resolution, were used to develop and calibrate a model to generate an erosivity map of Moldova. References 1. Summer, W., (2003). Soil erosion in the Republic of Moldova — the importance of institutional arrangements. Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 279. 2. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1965). Predicting rainfall-erosion losses from cropland east of the Rocky Mountains. Agr. Handbook No. 282, U.S. Dept. Agr., Washington, DC 3. Wischmeier, W.H., and Smith, D.D. (1978). Predicting rainfall erosion losses. Agr. handbook No. 537, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Science and Education Administration.

  19. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    2000-10-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  20. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Zhao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  1. Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

  2. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria

    2017-04-01

    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  3. Comparison of Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Rain Gauge Measurements in Italy, and Impact on Landslide Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Rossi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Landslides can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall. Rain gauge measurements are commonly used to predict landslides even if satellite rainfall estimates are available. Recent research focuses on the comparison of satellite estimates and gauge measurements. The rain gauge data from the Italian network (collected in the system database “Verifica Rischio Frana”, VRF are compared with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM products. For the purpose, we couple point gauge and satellite rainfall estimates at individual grid cells, evaluating the correlation between gauge and satellite data in different morpho-climatological conditions. We then analyze the statistical distributions of both rainfall data types and the rainfall events derived from them. Results show that satellite data underestimates ground data, with the largest differences in mountainous areas. Power-law models, are more appropriate to correlate gauge and satellite data. The gauge and satellite-based products exhibit different statistical distributions and the rainfall events derived from them differ. In conclusion, satellite rainfall cannot be directly compared with ground data, requiring local investigation to account for specific morpho-climatological settings. Results suggest that satellite data can be used for forecasting landslides, only performing a local scaling between satellite and ground data.

  4. Ground-water reconnaissance of American Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Daniel Arthur

    1963-01-01

    The principal islands of American Samoa are Tutuila, Aunuu, Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u, which have a total area of about 72 square miles and a population of about 20,000. The mean annual rainfall is 150 to 200 inches. The islands are volcanic in origin and are composed of lava flows, dikes, tuff. and breccia, and minor amounts of talus, alluvium, and calcareous sand and gravel. Tutuila is a complex island formed of rocks erupted from five volcanoes. Aunuu is a tuff cone. Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u are composed largely of thin-bedded lava flows. Much of the rock of Tutuila has low permeability, and most of the ground water is in high-level reservoirs that discharge at numerous small springs and seeps. The flow from a few springs and seeps is collected in short tunnels or in basins for village supply, but most villages obtain their water from streams. A large supply of basal ground water may underlie the Tafuna-Leone plain at about sea level in permeable lava flows. Small basal supplies may be in alluvial fill at the mouths of large valleys. Aunuu has small quantities of basal water in beach deposits of calcareous sand and gravel. Minor amounts of high-level ground-water flow from springs and seeps on Ofu, Olosega, and Ta'u. The generally permeable lava flows in the three islands contain substantial amounts of basal ground water that can be developed in coastal areas in wells dug to about sea level.

  5. Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

  6. ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND WORKING RAINFALL FOR BASIC WARNING CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT ON LAHAR FLOW EVENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitriyadi Fitriyadi

    2015-05-01

    The research results showed that the number of reviewed serial rain with total value ≥ 80 mm is 9.28% of the whole serial rain, and 12.5% of them caused lahar flow in Gendol River. Debris flow occurrence probability on total rainfall amount of ≥ 80 mm that may occur on Gendol River amounted to 1.89%. This value represents less possibility of debris flow in Gendol River, this is due to the rain conditions in the Gendol Watershed different from the situation in Japan as well as the limitations of the available data. It is recommended for further research on the limitation of total rainfall in accordance with the conditions in Gendol Watershed by considering other parameters becoming the lahar flow controller factor. Further, it is necessary to perform the analysis using rain catchment method by averaging rainfall values on each of serial rain.

  7. Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

    Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

  8. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    . Individual sci- entists and research institutes use these special datasets to ... including the data reporting no rain is very impor- tant to make the final merged dataset. Figures 2 and 3 show the total weekly rainfall amounts for different weeks in ...

  9. Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Jesse A.; Fung, Inez; Liu, Weihan

    2018-03-01

    The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call “frontal rain events.” In spring and early summer (known as “Meiyu Season”), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951–2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the “South Flood–North Drought” pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994–2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

  10. [Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling

    2010-05-01

    To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01) and also TP mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

  11. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  12. The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

    2017-05-18

    A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

  13. Influence of radioactive contamination to agricultural products by rainfall during a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, W. T.; Han, M. H.; Choi, Y. H.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, C. W.

    2001-01-01

    For the consideration of the effects on radioactive contamination of agricultural products by rainfall during a nuclear accident, the wet interception coefficients for the plants were derived, and the previous dynamic food chain model was also modified. From the results, radioactive contamination of agricultural products was greatly decreased by rainfall, and it decreased dramatically according to increase of rainfall amount. It means that the predictive contamination in agricultural products using the previous dynamic food chain model, in which dry interception to the plants is only considered, can be overestimated. Influence of rainfall on the contamination of agricultural products was the most sensitive for 131 I, and the least sensitive for 90 Sr

  14. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  15. Improved spatial mapping of rainfall events with spaceborne SAR imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulaby, F. T.; Brisco, B.; Dobson, C.

    1983-01-01

    The Seasat satellite acquired the first spaceborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images of the earth's surface, in 1978, at a frequency of 1.275 GHz (L-band) in a like-polarization mode at incidence angles of 23 + or - 3 deg. Although this may not be the optimum system configuration for radar remote sensing of soil moisture, interpretation of two Seasat images of Iowa demonstrates the sensitivity of microwave backscatter to soil moisture content. In both scenes, increased image brightness, which represents more radar backscatter, can be related to previous rainfall activity in the two areas. Comparison of these images with ground-based rainfall observations illustrates the increased spatial coverage of the rainfall event that can be obtained from the satellite SAR data. These data can then be color-enhanced by a digital computer to produce aesthetically pleasing output products for the user community.

  16. Ground Water Recharge Estimation Using Water Table Fluctuation Method And By GIS Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vajja, V.; Bekkam, V.; Nune, R.; M. v. S, R.

    2007-05-01

    Quite often it has become a debating point that how much recharge is occurring to the groundwater table through rainfall on one hand and through recharge structures such as percolation ponds and checkdams on the other. In the present investigations Musi basin of Andhra Pradesh, India is selected for study during the period 2005-06. Pre-monsoon and Post-monsoon groundwater levels are collected through out the Musi basin at 89 locations covering an area11, 291.69 km2. Geology of the study area and rainfall data during the study period has been collected. The contour maps of rainfall and the change in groundwater level between Pre-monsoon and Post- monsoon have been prepared. First the change in groundwater storage is estimated for each successive strips of areas enclosed between two contours of groundwater level fluctuations. In this calculation Specific yield (Sy) values are adopted based on the local Geology. Areas between the contours are estimated through Arc GIS software package. All such storages are added to compute the total storage for the entire basin. In order to find out the percent of rainfall converted into groundwater storage as well as to find out the ground water recharge due to storageponds, a contour map of rainfall for the study area is prepared and areas between successive contours have been calculated. Based on the Geology map, Infiltration values are adopted for each successive strip of the contour area. Then the amount of water infiltrated into the ground is calculated by adjusting the infiltration values for each strip, so that the total infiltrated water for the entire basin is matched with change in Ground water storage, which is 1314.37 MCM for the upper Musi basin while it is 2827.29 MCM for entire Musi basin. With this procedure on an average 29.68 and 30.66 percent of Rainfall is converted into Groundwater recharge for Upper Musi and for entire Musi basin respectively. In the total recharge, the contribution of rainfall directly to

  17. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall

  18. Organic carbon fluxes in stemflow, throughfall and rainfall in an olive orchard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, L.; Vanwalleghem, T.; Gomez, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    The importance of rainfall distribution under the vegetation canopy for nutrient cycling of forest ecosystems has been widely studied (e.g. Kolkai et al., 1999, Bath et al., 2011). It has been demonstrated how throughfall and stemflow reach the soil as chemically-enriched water, by incorporating soluble organic and inorganic particles deriving from plant exudates and from atmospheric depositions (dryfall and wetfall) present on the surfaces of the plant (leaves, bark, fruits). Dissolved (DOC) and particulate (POC) organic carbon inputs from stem- and canopy-derived hydrologic fluxes are small but important components of the natural carbon cycle. DOC has also the capability to form complexes that control the transport and solubility of heavy metals in surface and ground waters, being composed for the most part (75-90%) of fulvic, humic or tanninic compounds, and for the resting part of molecules like carbohydrates, hydrocarbons, waxes, fatty acids, amino and hydroxy acids. However, very little data is available for agricultural tree crops, especially olive trees. In this sense, the objective of this work is to investigate the concentration and fluxes of organic carbon in rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow in a mature olive orchard located in Cordoba, in Southern Spain and to relate them to rainfall characteristics and tree physiology. The measurements started in October 2011. Four high density polyethylene bottles with 18-cm-diameter polyethylene funnels for throughfall collection were placed beneath the canopy of each of the three selected olive trees; four more collectors were placed in open spaces in the same orchard for rainfall sampling. Stemflow was collected through PVC spiral tubes wrapped around the trunks and leading into collection bins. The throughflow sampling points were chosen randomly. Total and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in unfiltered (TOC) and filtered (0.45 µm membrane filter, DOC) collected waters were measured using a TOC analyzer

  19. Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

  20. Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosny Hasanean

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

  1. Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

    2018-01-01

    This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

  2. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  3. Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

    2018-05-01

    Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

  4. Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

    2017-04-01

    Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

  5. Effect of Variations in Long-Duration Rainfall Intensity on Unsaturated Slope Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Fu Yeh

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, many scientific methods have been used to prove that the Earth’s climate is changing. Climate change can affect rainfall patterns, which can in turn affect slope safety. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns from the perspective of rainfall intensity. This analysis was combined with numerical model analysis to examine the rainfall patterns of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area and its effects on slope stability. In this study, the Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen estimator were used to analyze the rainfall records of rainfall stations at Da-Dong-Shan, Ma-To-Shan, and San-Jiao-Nan-Shan. The rainfall intensity of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area showed an increasing trend from 1990–2016. In addition, the analysis results of rainfall intensity trends were used for qualitative analysis of seepage and slope stability. The trend analysis result showed that in the future, from 2017–2100, if the amount of rainfall per hour continues to rise at about 0.1 mm per year, the amount of seepage will increase at the slope surface boundary and significantly change pore water pressure in the soil. As a result, the time of the occurrence of slope instability after the start of rainfall will decrease from 20 to 13 h, and the reduction in the safety coefficient will increase from 32 to 41%. Therefore, to decrease the effects of slope disasters on the safety of the Zengwen reservoir and its surrounding areas, changes in rainfall intensity trends should be considered for slope safety in this region. However, the results of trend analyses were weak and future research is needed using a wider range of precipitation data and detailed hydrological analysis to better predict rainfall pattern variations.

  6. Pb-210 deposition measured in rainfall in Sao Paulo, SP-Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damatto, Sandra R.; Frujuele, Jonatan V.; Souza, Joseilton M.; Santos, Levi F., E-mail: damatto@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Radiometria Ambiental

    2013-07-01

    Pb-210 (T{sub 1/2} = 22.3 y), a natural radionuclide from U-238 serie can be found in the atmosphere, as a product of {sup 222}Rn decay that emanates from the ground, where its atoms become rapidly fixed to aerosols and return to the earth as dry fallout or are washed out in the rain. This natural radionuclide has been widely used as an atmospheric tracer, to determine the aerosol residence time as well as chronometers in the environment. Pb-210 was measured during a period of two years, 2011 to 2013, in samples of rainfall in all the rainy events that occurred at the Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN) campus (23 deg 33’59.24” S - 46 deg 44’15.63” O at 760 m above sea level) which is located in the city of Sao Paulo, in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Pb-210 concentration was measured in a total of 123 rainy events by beta gross counting in a low background gas flow proportional detector, after radiochemistry procedure. The results obtained were correlated to seasons and rainfall. The concentrations of {sup 210}Pb in rainfall varied from the minimum detectable activity, 4.9 mBq L{sup -1} to 1408± 43 mBq L{sup -1}. The highest concentrations were obtained in the months of winter and the lowest in summer. The monthly depositional flux of {sup 210}Pb, varied from 4.03 Bq m{sup -2} month{sup -1} to 46.4 Bq m{sup -2} month{sup -1}presenting a strong correlation with the amount of precipitation and hence showing seasonal trends. (author)

  7. Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

  8. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

  9. Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

  10. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  11. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  12. Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christofer Kristo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 were obtained and analysed by duration using linear regression. A general increasing trend was observed in both weather stations, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events, despite being statistically insignificant according to the Mann-Kendall test. Using the derived trends, projected rainfall intensities in 2050 and 2100 were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses performed on a typical residual soil slope in Singapore. A significant reduction in factor of safety was observed in the next 50 years, with only a marginal decrease in factor of safety in the subsequent 50 years. This indicates a possible detrimental effect of variations in rainfall patterns on slope stability in Singapore, especially in the next 50 years. The statistical analyses on rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 indicated that rainfall intensity tend to increase over the years, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events in the future. The stability analyses showed a significant decrease in factor of safety from 2003 to 2050 due to increase in rainfall intensity, suggesting that a climate change might have existed beyond 2009 with possibly detrimental effects to slope stability. Keywords: Climate change, Rainfall, Seepage, Slope stability

  13. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  14. Commercial application of rainfall simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loch, Rob J.

    2010-05-01

    Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

  15. Move of ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Shigehiko

    1983-01-01

    As a ground water flow which is difficult to explain by Darcy's theory, there is stagnant water in strata, which moves by pumping and leads to land subsidence. This is now a major problem in Japan. Such move on an extensive scale has been investigated in detail by means of 3 H such as from rainfall in addition to ordinary measurement. The move of ground water is divided broadly into that in an unsaturated stratum from ground surface to water-table and that in a saturated stratum below the water-table. The course of the analyses made so far by 3 H contained in water, and the future trend of its usage are described. A flow model of regarding water as plastic fluid and its flow as channel assembly may be available for some flow mechanism which is not possible to explain with Darcy's theory. (Mori, K.)

  16. Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  17. FLASH-FLOOD MODELLING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS USING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu Cristian

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in modelling the hydrological processes has become a common approach in the last two decades, among side the traditional methods. In regard to the rainfall-runoff modelling, in both traditional and ANN models the use of ground rainfall measurements is prevalent, which can be challenging in areas with low rain gauging station density, especially in catchments where strong focused rainfall can generate flash-floods. The weather radar technology can prove to be a solution for such areas by providing rain estimates with good time and space resolution. This paper presents a comparison between different ANN setups using as input both ground and radar observations for modelling the rainfall-runoff process for Bahluet catchment, with focus on a flash-flood observed in the catchment.

  18. Inter-Annual Variability Of Rainfall In Some States Of Southern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egor

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The study inter-annual variability of rainfall in some states in Southern Nigeria focuses on analyzing the trends and fluctuations in annual rainfall over six states in Southern Nigeria covering a period of 1972 2012. In order to ascertain the variabilitys and to model the annual rainfall for future prediction to enhance policy implementation the quantitative and descriptive analysis techniques was employed. The rainfall series were analyzed for fluctuations using Standardized Anomaly Index SAI whereas the trends were examined using Statistical Package for Social Science Software SPSS 17.0. At 95 percent confidence level observations in the stations may be signals that the wetter period dominates the drier periods in this study. Each of the series contains two distinct periods when the rainfall anomalies negative and positive of a particular type were most significant. The period where the annual rainfall is above one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Wet and the period below one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Dry for each station. The results of the linear trend lines revealed an increase in rainfall supply over the period of study especially of recent. The annual rate of increase in rainfall over the period of investigation 1972 - 2012 were 15.21mmyear for Calabar 2.18mmyear for Port Harcourt 22.23mmyear for Owerri 3.25mmyear for Benin City 5.08mmyear for Enugu and 16.29mmyear for Uyo respectively. The variability in amount of annual rainfall revealed that in 2012 Calabar received the highest amount of rainfall of about 4062.70mm and the least value of 2099.4mm in 1973. In Porthacourt the highest amount of rainfall occurred in 1993 with a value of 3911.70mm and the least value in 1983 with a value of 1816.4mm. Owerri recorded the highest amount of rainfall of about 3064.0mm in 2011 and the least value occurred in 1986 with a value of 1228.4mm. In 1976 Benin received the

  19. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  20. Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration

    OpenAIRE

    Gofar Nurly; Rahardjo Harianto

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–...

  1. Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Surender; Rao, V.U.M.; Singh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

  2. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates for Drought and Flood Monitoring in Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolien Toté

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET Rainfall Estimate (RFE v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012. This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

  3. Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

  4. Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, J.; Latif, M.

    2002-12-01

    The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP

  5. Simulated transient thermal infrared emissions of forest canopies during rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Jerrell R.; Hawkins, William R.; Howington, Stacy E.; Kala, Raju V.

    2017-05-01

    We describe the development of a centimeter-scale resolution simulation framework for a theoretical tree canopy that includes rainfall deposition, evaporation, and thermal infrared emittance. Rainfall is simulated as discrete raindrops with specified rate. The individual droplets will either fall through the canopy and intersect the ground; adhere to a leaf; bounce or shatter on impact with a leaf resulting in smaller droplets that are propagated through the canopy. Surface physical temperatures are individually determined by surface water evaporation, spatially varying within canopy wind velocities, solar radiation, and water vapor pressure. Results are validated by theoretical canopy gap and gross rainfall interception models.

  6. Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

  7. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peternel, Tina; Jemec Auflič, Mateja; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Komac, Marko; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Both at the worldwide level and in Slovenia, precipitation and related phenomena represent one of the most important triggering factors for the occurrence of slope mass movements. In the past decade, extreme rainfall events with a very high amount of precipitation occurs in a relatively short rainfall period have become increasingly important and more frequent, that causing numerous undesirable consequences. Intense rainstorms cause flash floods and mostly trigger shallow landslides and soil slips. On the other hand, the damage of long lasting rainstorms depends on the region's adaptation and its capacity to store or infiltrate excessive water from the rain. The amount and, consequently, the intensity of daily precipitation that can cause floods in the eastern part of Slovenia is a rather common event for the north-western part of the country. Likewise, the effect of rainfall is very dependent on the prior soil moisture, periods of full soil saturation and the creation of drifts in groundwater levels due to the slow melting of snow, growing period, etc. Landslides could be identified and to some extent also prevent with better knowledge of the relation between landslides and rainfall. In this paper the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges all over the country. The thresholds have been defined by the (1) use of an existing procedure, characterized by a high degree of objectiveness and (2) software that was developed for a test site with very different geological and climatic characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). Firstly, a single national threshold has been defined, later the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of major the river basins and a single threshold has been calculated for each of them. Validation of the calculated

  8. Traffic Flow Prediction with Rainfall Impact Using a Deep Learning Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhan Jia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is increasingly essential for successful traffic modeling, operation, and management. Traditional data driven traffic flow prediction approaches have largely assumed restrictive (shallow model architectures and do not leverage the large amount of environmental data available. Inspired by deep learning methods with more complex model architectures and effective data mining capabilities, this paper introduces the deep belief network (DBN and long short-term memory (LSTM to predict urban traffic flow considering the impact of rainfall. The rainfall-integrated DBN and LSTM can learn the features of traffic flow under various rainfall scenarios. Experimental results indicate that, with the consideration of additional rainfall factor, the deep learning predictors have better accuracy than existing predictors and also yield improvements over the original deep learning models without rainfall input. Furthermore, the LSTM can outperform the DBN to capture the time series characteristics of traffic flow data.

  9. Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Beguería

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

  10. The Soil Moisture Dependence of TRMM Microwave Imager Rainfall Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyyedi, H.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2011-12-01

    This study presents an in-depth analysis of the dependence of overland rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the soil moisture conditions at the land surface. TMI retrievals are verified against rainfall fields derived from a high resolution rain-gauge network (MESONET) covering Oklahoma. Soil moisture (SOM) patterns are extracted based on recorded data from 2000-2007 with 30 minutes temporal resolution. The area is divided into wet and dry regions based on normalized SOM (Nsom) values. Statistical comparison between two groups is conducted based on recorded ground station measurements and the corresponding passive microwave retrievals from TMI overpasses at the respective MESONET station location and time. The zero order error statistics show that the Probability of Detection (POD) for the wet regions (higher Nsom values) is higher than the dry regions. The Falls Alarm Ratio (FAR) and volumetric FAR is lower for the wet regions. The volumetric missed rain for the wet region is lower than dry region. Analysis of the MESONET-to-TMI ratio values shows that TMI tends to overestimate for surface rainfall intensities less than 12 (mm/h), however the magnitude of the overestimation over the wet regions is lower than the dry regions.

  11. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  12. Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

  13. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  14. Rainfall and streamflow from small tree-covered and fern-covered and burned watersheds in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. W. Anderson; P. D. Duffy; Teruo Yamamoto

    1966-01-01

    Streamflow from two 30-acre watersheds near Honolulu was studied by using principal components regression analysis. Models using data on monthly, storm, and peak discharges were tested against several variables expressing amount and intensity of rainfall, and against variables expressing antecedent rainfall. Explained variation ranged from 78 to 94 percent. The...

  15. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  16. Amount and composition of rain failing at Rothamsted

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, E J; Richards, E H

    1919-01-01

    The monthly fluctuations in the ammoniacal concentration varies with rainfall, i.e., highest in spring; lowest in winter. The nitric nitrogen concentration fluctuated year by year and month by month in the same way as the ammoniacal nitrogen and the rainfall until 1910, since when there has been no simple relationship. The close relationship between the amounts of ammoniacal and nitric nitrogen suggests either a common origin or the production of nitric compounds from ammonia. Chlorine fluctuations closely follow the rainfall also. Since 1888, when the experiments began, to 1916, when they terminated, there has been a rise in the amounts of nitric nitrogen and of chlorine in the rain. In the case of chlorine a parallel series of determinations made at Cirencester over the same period shows a similar rise. There is no rise of ammonia but on the contrary a tendency to drop; the sum of ammoniacal and nitric nitrogen shows little change over the period. This seems to suggest that a former source of ammonia is now turning out nitric acid. It is possible that modern gas burners and grates tend to the formation of nitric oxides rather than of ammonia. Rain contains on an average 10 parts of dissolved oxygen per million, the amount being higher in winter than in summer: 66.4 lb per acre per annum was brought down during the two years over which the determinations extended. The marked difference in composition between summer and winter rainfall suggests that these may differ in their origin. The winter rain resembles Atlantic rain in its high chlorine and low ammonia and nitrate content; the summer rain is characterized by low chlorine but high ammonia and nitrate content, suggesting that it arises by evaporation of water from the soil and condensation at higher altitudes than in the case of winter rain.

  17. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

    2015-04-01

    The CO-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has to date seen the publication of at least ten journal papers that examine the African domain during 2012 and 2013. Five of these papers consider Africa generally (Nikulin et al. 2012, Kim et al. 2013, Hernandes-Dias et al. 2013, Laprise et al. 2013, Panitz et al. 2013) and five have regional foci: Tramblay et al. (2013) on Northern Africa, Mariotti et al. (2014) and Gbobaniyi el al. (2013) on West Africa, Endris et al. (2013) on East Africa and Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) on southern Africa. There also are a further three papers that the authors know about under review. These papers all use an observed rainfall and/or temperature data to evaluate/validate the regional model output and often proceed to assess projected changes in these variables due to climate change in the context of these observations. The most popular reference rainfall data used are the CRU, GPCP, GPCC, TRMM and UDEL datasets. However, as Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) point out there are many other rainfall datasets available for consideration, for example, CMORPH, FEWS, TAMSAT & RIANNAA, TAMORA and the WATCH & WATCH-DEI data. They, with others (Nikulin et al. 2012, Sylla et al. 2012) show that the observed datasets can have a very wide spread at a particular space-time coordinate. As more ground, space and reanalysis-based rainfall products become available, all which use different methods to produce precipitation data, the selection of reference data is becoming an important factor in model evaluation. A number of factors can contribute to a uncertainty in terms of the reliability and validity of the datasets such as radiance conversion algorithims, the quantity and quality of available station data, interpolation techniques and blending methods used to combine satellite and guage based products. However, to date no comprehensive study has been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in these observational datasets. We assess 18 gridded

  18. Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM Rainfall over the Upper Senegal River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansoumana Bodian

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The availability of climatic data, especially on a daily time step, has become very rare in West Africa over the last few years due to the high costs of climate data monitoring. This scarcity of climatic data is a huge obstacle to conduct hydrological studies over some watersheds. In this context, our study aimed to evaluate the capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite data to simulate the observed runoffs over the Bafing (the main important tributary of the Senegal River before their potential integration in hydrological studies. The conceptual hydrological model GR4J (modèle du Génie Rural (Agricultural Engineering Model à 4 paramètres Journalier (4 parameters Daily has been used, calibrated and validated over the 1961–1997 period with rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET as inputs. Then, the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relation, obtained during the cross-calibration-validation phase, were used to simulate runoff over the 1998–2004 period using observed and TRMM rainfalls. The findings of this study show that there is a high consistency between satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall. Over the 1998–2004 simulation period, the two rainfall data series show quite satisfactorily results. The output hydrographs from satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall coincide quite well with the shape of observed hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE of 0.88 and 0.80 for observed rainfalls and TRMM rainfalls, respectively.

  19. Building rainfall thresholds for large-scales landslides by extracting occurrence time of landslides from seismic records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.

  20. Examining spatial-temporal variability and prediction of rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammed, B. U.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

    2012-12-01

    In the last 50 years rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria under the influence of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been characterised by large annual variations with severe droughts recorded in 1967-1973, and 1983-1987. This variability in rainfall has a large impact on the regions agricultural output, economy and security where the majority of the people depend on subsistence agriculture. In the 1990s there was a sign of recovery with higher annual rainfall totals compared to the 1961-1990 period but annual totals were slightly above the long term mean for the century. In this study we examine how significant this recovery is by analysing medium-term (1980-2006) rainfall of the region using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) precipitation ½ degree, 6 hourly reanalysis data set. Percentage coefficient of variation increases northwards for annual rainfall (10%-35%) and the number of rainy days (10%-50%). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the area shows 7 years during the period as very wet (1996, 1999, 2003 and 2004) with SPI≥1.5 and moderately wet (1993, 1998, and 2006) with values of 1.0≥SPI≤1.49. Annual rainfall indicates a recovery from the 1990s and onwards but significant increases (in the amount of rainfall and number of days recorded with rainfall) is only during the peak of the monsoon season in the months of August and September (pARIMA) model. The model is further evaluated using 24 months rainfall data yielding r=0.79 (regression slope=0.8; pARIMA model and the rainfall data used for this study indicates that the model can be satisfactorily used in forecasting rainfall in the in the sub-humid part of North-eastern Nigeria over a 24 months period.

  1. Rainfall Simulations of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzu-Hsiung Yen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot produced record-breaking accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The combination of several factors resulted in this extreme weather event: the steep terrain in Taiwan, the prevailing south-westerly flow in the monsoon trough, Typhoon Goni over the northern South China Sea, and the slow translation speed of Morakot itself over Taiwan. In this study, the influence of the translation speed is particularly emphasized. Based on the EnKF data assimilation, an innovative method is applied to perform ensemble simulations with several designated translation speeds of Morakot using the WRF model. Thus the influence of the translation speed on the amount of accumulated rainfall over Taiwan can be quantitatively evaluated. In the control simulation with observed translation speed, the maximum amount and geographic pattern of accumulated rainfall during the landfall period of Morakot are generally consistent with the observations, though the detailed overall distributions of accumulated rainfall is mostly underestimated, resulting in the low bias of the frequency distribution of the accumulated rainfall. In a simulation with nearly-doubled translation speed of Morakot, the maximum accumulated rainfall is decreased by 33% than that in the control simulation, while the rainfall distribution over Taiwan remains similar. In addition, the 28 ensemble members can further provide additional information in terms of their spread and other statistics. The results from ensemble members reveal the usefulness of ensemble simulations for the quantitative precipitation forecast.

  2. Some analysis on the diurnal variation of rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, T.; Perng, S.; Hughes, A.

    1981-01-01

    Data collected from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was examined. The data were collected from 10,000 grid points arranged as a 100 x 100 array; each grid covered a 4 square km area. The amount of rainfall was measured every 15 minutes during the experiment periods using c-band radars. Two types of analyses were performed on the data: analysis of diurnal variation was done on each of grid points based on the rainfall averages at noon and at midnight, and time series analysis on selected grid points based on the hourly averages of rainfall. Since there are no known distribution model which best describes the rainfall amount, nonparametric methods were used to examine the diurnal variation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test if the rainfalls at noon and at midnight have the same statistical distribution. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to test if the noon rainfall is heavier than, equal to, or lighter than the midnight rainfall. These tests were done on each of the 10,000 grid points at which the data are available.

  3. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

    2017-12-01

    With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

  4. Description of rainfall variability in Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira

    OpenAIRE

    Iyengar, RN

    2004-01-01

    Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira (5–6th century AD) provides valuable information on the approach in ancient India towards monsoon rainfall, including its measurement and forecasting. In this context, we come across a description of the expected amount of total seasonal rainfall depending on the first rains under the 27 naks atras of Indian astronomy. This provides a rough statistical picture of what might have been the rainfall and its variability in the region around Ujjain, where Varâha-mi...

  5. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-01-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have been emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rainfall amounts...

  6. Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

  7. A Preliminary Study on Rainfall Interception Loss and Water Yield Analysis on Arabica Coffee Plants in Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Benara

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss from plants or trees can reduce a net rainfall as source of water yield. The amount of rainfall interception loss depends on kinds of plants and hydro-meteorological characteristics. Therefore, it is important to study rainfall interception loss such as from Arabica Coffee plantation which is as main agricultural commodity for Central Aceh Regency. In this study, rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plants was studied in Kebet Village of Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia from January 20 to March 9, 2011. Arabica coffee plants used in this study was 15 years old, height of 1.5 m and canopy of 4.567 m2. Rainfall interception loss was determined based on water balance approach of daily rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow data. Empirical regression equation between rainfall interception loss and rainfall were adopted as a model to estimate rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plantation, which the coefficient of correlation, r is 0.98. In water yield analysis, this formula was applied and founded that Arabica Coffee plants intercept 76% of annual rainfall or it leaved over annual net rainfall 24% of annual rainfall. Using this net rainfall, water yield produced from Paya Bener River which is the catchment area covered by Arabica Coffee plantation was analyzed in a planning of water supply project for water needs domestic of 3 sub-districts in Central Aceh Regency. Based on increasing population until year of 2025, the results showed that the water yield will be not enough from year of 2015. However, if the catchment area is covered by forest, the water yield is still enough until year of 2025

  8. Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-08-01

    The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

  9. Runoff and Sediment Production under the Similar Rainfall Events in Different Aggregate Sizes of an Agricultural Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Eslami

    2016-09-01

    soil loss (sediment. Ten same rainfall events with 60 mm h-1 in intensity for 30 min were applied using a designed rainfall simulator in the lab. The rainfall simulator had a rainfall plate with a dimension of 100 cm × 120 cm which has been fixed on a metal frame with 3m height from the ground surface. Runoff and sediment samples were collected using a plastic container placed the out-let of the flumes. Runoff generation of each flume was determined based on multiplying total content volume of the tank by volume proportion of water in the sample. Soil loss for each event was determined using multiply the container volume and sediment concentration of the uniform sample. Initial soil moisture was measured in the aggregate samples before each rainfall event in order to investigate its effect on the runoff and sediment variations in the event scales. Runoff, soil loss and initial soil moisture data were evaluated for normality before any statistical analysis using SPSS version 18 software. Differences of runoff and soil loss among different rainfall events were analyzed using the Duncan's test. Results and Discussion: Based on the results, the soil was calcareous having 16% equivalent calcium carbonate. Low amount of organic matter (0.6%. The measured aggregate stability showed to be very low, indicating high susceptibility of the aggregates to water erosion processes. Significant differences were found among the rainfall events in runoff (p< 0.05, sediment (p< 0.001 and sediment concentration (p< 0.001 which were associated with aggregate breakdown by raindrop impacts in the rainfall events. Runoff and sediment were strongly increased from each event to other event. Significant relationship was found between sediment and runoff in the events (R2= 0.89, p< 0.001. However, sediment showed to have higher increasing trend as compared to runoff variation pattern in the event scale. Sediment value was very low in the first rainfall event due to high portions of the water

  10. Do we really use rainfall observations consistent with reality in hydrological modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Moussa, Roger; Le Bissonnais, Yves

    2017-04-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall control how water reaches soil surface and interacts with soil properties (i.e., soil wetting, infiltration, saturation). Once a hydrological event is defined by a rainfall with its spatiotemporal variability and by some environmental parameters such as soil properties (including land use, topographic and anthropic features), the evidence shows that each parameter variation produces different, specific outputs (e.g., runoff, flooding etc.). In this study, we focus on the effect of rainfall patterns because, due to the difficulty to dispose of detailed data, their influence in modelling is frequently underestimated or neglected. A rainfall event affects a catchment non uniformly, it is spatially localized and its pattern moves in space and time. The way and the time how the water reaches the soil and saturates it respect to the geometry of the catchment deeply influences soil saturation, runoff, and then sediment delivery. This research, approaching a hypothetical, simple case, aims to stimulate the debate on the reliability of the rainfall quality used in hydrological / soil erosion modelling. We test on a small catchment of the south of France (Roujan, Languedoc Roussillon) the influence of rainfall variability with the use of a HD hybrid hydrological - soil erosion model, combining a cinematic wave with the St. Venant equation and a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, able to quantify the effect of different spatiotemporal patterns of a very-high-definition synthetic rainfall. Results indicate that rainfall spatiotemporal patterns are crucial simulating an erosive event: differences between spatially uniform rainfalls, as frequently adopted in simulations, and some hypothetical rainfall patterns here applied, reveal that the outcome of a simulated event can be highly underestimated.

  11. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  12. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    digital elevation model in ArcGIS environment. Validation of the selected interpolation methods were based on goodness of fit between gauged (observed) and generated rainfall derived from residual errors statistics, coefficient of determination (R 2), mean absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) statistics. Analyses showed 90 % chance of below cropping-threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for 1 year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (e.g. coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.56, 0.47, 0.59) and in number of rainy days (e.g. CV = 0.88, 0.53) in Machang'a and Kiritiri, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (e.g. CV = 0.48, 0.49 and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang'a. Dry spell probabilities within growing months were high, e.g. 81 and 60 % in Machang'a and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  13. Hydrologic response in karstic-ridge wetlands to rainfall and evapotranspiration, central Florida, 2001-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Leel; Phelps, G.G.; Kinnaman, Sandra L.; German, Edward R.

    2005-01-01

    Two internally drained karstic wetlands in central Florida-Boggy Marsh at the Hilochee Wildlife Management Area and a large unnamed wetland at the Lyonia Preserve-were studied during 2001-03 to gain a better understanding of the net-recharge function that these wetlands provide, the significance of exchanges with ground water with regard to wetland water budgets, and the variability in wetland hydrologic response to a range of climate conditions. These natural, relatively remote and unaltered wetlands were selected to provide a baseline of natural wetland hydrologic variability to which anthropogenic influences on wetland hydrology could be compared. Large departures from normal rainfall during the study were fortuitous, and allowed monitoring of hydrologic processes over a wide range of climate conditions. Wetland responses varied greatly as a result of climate conditions that ranged from moderate drought to extremely moist. Anthropogenic activities influenced water levels at both study sites; however, because these activities were brief relative to the duration of the study, sufficient data were collected during unimpacted periods to allow for the following conclusions to be made. Water budgets developed for Boggy Marsh and the Lyonia large wetland showed strong similarity between the flux terms of rainfall, evaporation, net change in storage, and the net ground-water exchange residual. Runoff was assumed to be negligible. Of the total annual flux at Boggy Marsh, rainfall accounted for 45 percent; evaporation accounted for 25 percent; net change in storage accounted for 25 percent; and the net residual accounted for 5 percent. At the Lyonia large wetland, rainfall accounted for 44 percent; evaporation accounted for 29 percent; net change in storage accounted for 21 percent; and the net residual accounted for 6 percent of the total annual flux. Wetland storage and ground-water exchange were important when compared to the total water budget at both wetlands. Even

  14. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  15. Parametric study on the effect of rainfall pattern to slope stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakim Sagitaningrum Fathiyah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide in Indonesia usually occurs during the rainy seasons. Previous studies showed that rainfall infiltration has a great effect on the factor of safety (FS of slopes. This research focused on the effect of rainfall pattern on the FS of unsaturated slope with different slope angle i.e.: 30°, 45°, and 60°. Three different rainfall patterns, which are normal, advanced, and delayed were considered in the analysis. The effects of low or high hydraulic conductivity of the soil are also observed. The analyses were conducted with SEEP/W for the seepage and SLOPE/W for the slope stability. It is found that the lowest FS for gentle slope is reached under the application of advanced rainfall pattern and the lowest FS for steep slope is reached under the application of delayed rainfall pattern. Reduction of FS is known to be the largest for gentle slope rather than steep slope due to negative pore water pressure reduction and the rising of ground water level. The largest FS reduction caused by rainfall was achieved for gentle slope under advanced rainfall pattern.

  16. Determining the precipitable water vapor thresholds under different rainfall strengths in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Ta-Kang; Shih, Hsuan-Chang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Choy, Suelynn; Chen, Chieh-Hung; Hong, Jing-Shan

    2018-02-01

    Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) plays an important role for weather forecasting. It is helpful in evaluating the changes of the weather system via observing the distribution of water vapor. The ability of calculating PWV from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is useful to understand the special weather phenomenon. In this study, 95 ground-based GPS and rainfall stations in Taiwan were utilized from 2006 to 2012 to analyze the relationship between PWV and rainfall. The PWV data were classified into four classes (no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall), and the vertical gradients of the PWV were obtained and the variations of the PWV were analyzed. The results indicated that as the GPS elevation increased every 100 m, the PWV values decreased by 9.5 mm, 11.0 mm, 12.2 mm and 12.3 mm during the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. After applying correction using the vertical gradients mentioned above, the average PWV thresholds were 41.8 mm, 52.9 mm, 62.5 mm and 64.4 mm under the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. This study offers another type of empirical threshold to assist the rainfall prediction and can be used to distinguish the rainfall features between different areas in Taiwan.

  17. A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2018-01-01

    RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

  18. Impact analysis of satellite rainfall products on flow simulations in the Magdalena River Basin, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Elgamal

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Magdalena River is the most important river in Colombia in terms of economic activities and is home to about 77% of the country’s population. The river faces water resources allocation challenges, which require reliable hydrological assessments. However, hydrological analysis and model simulations are hampered by insufficient and uncertain knowledge of the actual rainfall fields. In this research the reliability of groundbased measurements, different satellite products of rainfall and their combinations are tested for their impact on the discharge simulations of the Magdalena River. Two different satellite rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, have been compared and merged with the ground-based measurements and their impact on the Magdalena river flows quantified using the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW distributed hydrological model.

  19. Ground-truth measurement systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, R.; Seliga, T. A.; Lhermitte, R. M.; Nystuen, J. A.; Cherry, S.; Bringi, V. N.; Blackmer, R.; Heymsfield, G. M.

    1981-01-01

    Ground-truth measurements of precipitation and related weather events are an essential component of any satellite system designed for monitoring rainfall from space. Such measurements are required for testing, evaluation, and operations; they provide detailed information on the actual weather events, which can then be compared with satellite observations intended to provide both quantitative and qualitative information about them. Also, very comprehensive ground-truth observations should lead to a better understanding of precipitation fields and their relationships to satellite data. This process serves two very important functions: (a) aiding in the development and interpretation of schemes of analyzing satellite data, and (b) providing a continuing method for verifying satellite measurements.

  20. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  1. Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

    2014-05-01

    This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

  2. The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

  3. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  4. Forecasting the heavy rainfall during Himalayan flooding—June 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anumeha Dube

    2014-08-01

    Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.

  5. Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

  6. [Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

    2006-12-01

    With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

  7. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  8. A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

    2015-12-01

    Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical

  9. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.

    2018-03-01

    Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  10. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Peres

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity–duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily. The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  11. Stream discharge of metals and rare earth elements in rainfall events in a forested catchment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsunaga, Takeshi; Tsuduki, Katsunori; Yanase, Nobuyuki; Hanzawa, Yukiko; Naganawa, Hirochika; Inoue, Takanobu; Yamada, Toshiro; Miyata, Akifumi

    2007-01-01

    In a forested catchment rainfall event, the accelerated stream discharge of dissolved Cr, Cu, and Sb was attributed mainly to the first flush from the ground surface and/or instantaneous resuspension of stream sediment, while REE discharge was linked to that of dissolved organic matter from the soil layer. (author)

  12. Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

    2012-08-01

    This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

  13. Radar Rainfall Bias Correction based on Deep Learning Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yang; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel A.

    2017-04-01

    Radar rainfall measurement errors can be considerably attributed to various sources including intricate synoptic regimes. Temperature, humidity and wind are typically acknowledged as critical meteorological factors in inducing the precipitation discrepancies aloft and on the ground. The conventional practices mainly use the radar-gauge or geostatistical techniques by direct weighted interpolation algorithms as bias correction schemes whereas rarely consider the atmospheric effects. This study aims to comprehensively quantify those meteorological elements' impacts on radar-gauge rainfall bias correction based on a deep learning approach. The deep learning approach employs deep convolutional neural networks to automatically extract three-dimensional meteorological features for target recognition based on high range resolution profiles. The complex nonlinear relationships between input and target variables can be implicitly detected by such a scheme, which is validated on the test dataset. The proposed bias correction scheme is expected to be a promising improvement in systematically minimizing the synthesized atmospheric effects on rainfall discrepancies between radar and rain gauges, which can be useful in many meteorological and hydrological applications (e.g., real-time flood forecasting) especially for regions with complex atmospheric conditions.

  14. Uncertainty of Flood Forecasting Based on Radar Rainfall Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinchi Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the core data input to hydrological forecasting. The uncertainty in precipitation forecast data can lead to poor performance of predictive hydrological models. Radar-based precipitation measurement offers advantages over ground-based measurement in the quantitative estimation of temporal and spatial aspects of precipitation, but errors inherent in this method will still act to reduce the performance. Using data from White Lotus River of Hubei Province, China, five methods were used to assimilate radar rainfall data transformed from the classified Z-R relationship, and the postassimilation data were compared with precipitation measured by rain gauges. The five sets of assimilated rainfall data were then used as input to the Xinanjiang model. The effect of precipitation data input error on runoff simulation was analyzed quantitatively by disturbing the input data using the Breeding of Growing Modes method. The results of practical application demonstrated that the statistical weight integration and variational assimilation methods were superior. The corresponding performance in flood hydrograph prediction was also better using the statistical weight integration and variational methods compared to the others. It was found that the errors of radar rainfall data disturbed by the Breeding of Growing Modes had a tendency to accumulate through the hydrological model.

  15. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

  16. Further developments of the Neyman-Scott clustered point process for modeling rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowpertwait, Paul S. P.

    1991-07-01

    This paper provides some useful results for modeling rainfall. It extends work on the Neyman-Scott cluster model for simulating rainfall time series. Several important properties have previously been found for the model, for example, the expectation and variance of the amount of rain captured in an arbitrary time interval (Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., 1987a), In this paper additional properties are derived, such as the probability of an arbitrary interval of any chosen length being dry. In applications this is a desirable property to have, and is often used for fitting stochastic rainfall models to field data. The model is currently being used in rainfall time series research directed toward improving sewage systems in the United Kingdom. To illustrate the model's performance an example is given, where the model is fitted to 10 years of hourly data taken from Blackpool, England.

  17. Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfaye Ayehu, Getachew; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Gessesse, Berhan; Dinku, Tufa

    2018-04-01

    Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data over the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia for the period of 2000 to 2015. In addition, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT 3) and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2) products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. From the overall analysis at dekadal (10 days) and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited better performance in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. An evaluation based on categorical/volumetric and continuous statistics indicated that CHIRPS has the greatest skills in detecting rainfall events (POD = 0.99, 1.00) and measure of volumetric rainfall (VHI = 1.00, 1.00), the highest correlation coefficients (r = 0.81, 0.88), better bias values (0.96, 0.96), and the lowest RMSE (28.45 mm dekad-1, 59.03 mm month-1) than TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products at dekadal and monthly analysis, respectively. CHIRPS overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence (up to 31 % at dekadal scale), although the volume of rainfall recorded during those events was very small. Indeed, TAMSAT 3 has shown a comparable performance with that of the CHIRPS product, mainly with regard to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance underestimating rain gauge observed rainfall by

  18. Grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Tina

    2015-04-29

    Grounded theory is a popular research approach in health care and the social sciences. This article provides a description of grounded theory methodology and its key components, using examples from published studies to demonstrate practical application. It aims to demystify grounded theory for novice nurse researchers, by explaining what it is, when to use it, why they would want to use it and how to use it. It should enable nurse researchers to decide if grounded theory is an appropriate approach for their research, and to determine the quality of any grounded theory research they read.

  19. Rainfall and runoff water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, south-eastern England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Neal

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The water quality of rainfall and runoff is described for two catchments of two tributaries of the River Thames, the Pang and Lambourn. Rainfall chemistry is variable and concentrations of most determinands decrease with increasing volume of catch probably due to 'wash out' processes. Two rainfall sites have been monitored, one for each catchment. The rainfall site on the Lambourn shows higher chemical concentrations than the one for the Pang which probably reflects higher amounts of local inputs from agricultural activity. Rainfall quality data at a long-term rainfall site on the Pang (UK National Air Quality Archive shows chemistries similar to that for the Lambourn site, but with some clear differences. Rainfall chemistries show considerable variation on an event-to-event basis. Average water quality concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations as well as fluxes vary across the sites, typically by about 30%. Stream chemistry is much less variable due to the main source of water coming from aquifer sources of high storage. The relationship between rainfall and runoff chemistry at the catchment outlet is described in terms of the relative proportions of atmospheric and within-catchment sources. Remarkably, in view of the quantity of agricultural and sewage inputs to the streams, the catchments appear to be retaining both P and N. Keywords: water quality, nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, ammonia, nitrogen dioxide, pH, alkalinity, nutrients, trace metals, rainfall, river, Pang, Lambourn, LOCAR

  20. The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

    2013-12-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

  1. Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

  2. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  3. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  4. Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-11-01

    Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

  5. Developing empirical relationship between interrill erosion, rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to develop an empirical relationship for interrill erosion based on rainfall intensity, slope steepness and soil types, an interrill erosion experiment was conducted using laboratory rainfall simulator on three soil types (Vertisols, Cambisols and Leptosols) for the highlands of North Shewa Zone of Oromia Region.

  6. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10◦N (north. Kerala) fall into one group and they ...

  7. Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

    2010-05-01

    rainfall amount were analysed for each rainfall sub-region and weather type from 1961-2007 (Ferranti et al., 2010). The conditional analysis showed total rainfall under SW and W weather types to be increasing, with the greatest increases observed in the upland sub-regions. The increase in total SW rainfall is driven by a greater occurrence of SW rain days, and there has been little change to the average wet-day rainfall amount. The increase in total W rainfall is driven in part by an increase in the frequency of wet-days, but more significantly by an increase in the average wet-day rainfall amount. In contrast, total rainfall under C weather types has decreased. Further analysis will investigate how spring, summer and autumn rainfall climatologies have changed for the different weather types and sub-regions. Conditional analysis that combines GIS and synoptic climatology provides greater insights into the processes underlying readily available meteorological data. Dissecting Cumbrian rainfall data under different synoptic and geographic conditions showed the observed changes in winter rainfall are not uniform for the different weather types, nor for the different geographic sub-regions. These intricate details are often lost during coarser resolution analysis, and conditional analysis will provide a detailed synopsis of Cumbrian rainfall processes against which Regional Climate Model (RCM) performance can be tested. Conventionally RCMs try to simulate composite rainfall over many different weather types and sub-regions and by undertaking conditional validation the model performance for individual processes can be tested. This will help to target improvements in model performance, and ultimately lead to better simulation of rainfall in areas of complex topography. BURT, T. P. & FERRANTI, E. J. S. (2010) Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England. Atmospheric Environment, [in review]. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R

  8. Tea shoot production in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature in Pagilaran tea estate, Batang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yudono, P.

    2000-01-01

    Tea shoot production pattern in PT Pagilaran tea estate, Batang, is studied in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature. Pagilaran tea estate is located at 700-1,500 m above the sea level, with temperature of 15-30 deg. C and rainfall ranging from 4,500 mm to 7,000 mm per year. However, the area is also characterized by two up to three dry months for every three years. Monthly data of rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature were collected and were related to tea shoot production using correlation and regression analysis. The results indicated that there was no significant different pattern of tea shoot production form the three estate units (Kayulandak, Pagilaran, and Andongsili). Monthly shoots production increases during October up to December, and then goes down in January up to February. It fluctuated at a lesser degree in the upper units (Kayulandak and Andongsili) which might be attributed to better soil moisture available in the area. They are right below a forests area which understandably serves as rainfall catchment area and maintains soil moisture of the area below in a better condition. Weak to moderate correlation was obtained when monthly tea shoot production was correlated to amount of rainfall (r = -0.3771), days of rainfall (r = -0.3512), maximum temperature (r = -0.3502), minimum temperature (r = -0.2786), and solar radiation (r=0.6607) of the same month. On regressing monthly tea shoot production to those variables, rainfall and duration of solar radiation turned out to be the two significant factors through the following equation y = 759.5616-0.1802 xi-1 + 0.1057 xi-2 + 0.5239 zi-1 (R at the power of 2 = 0.3398), where y = tea shoots production, x=amount of monthly rainfall, z=duration of solar radiation, and i refer to month [in

  9. Rainfall estimation in SWAT: An alternative method to simulate orographic precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galván, L.; Olías, M.; Izquierdo, T.; Cerón, J. C.; Fernández de Villarán, R.

    2014-02-01

    The input of water from precipitation is one of the most important aspects of a hydrologic model because it controls the basin's water budget. The model should reproduce the amount and distribution of rainfall in the basin, spatially and temporally. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is one of the most widely used hydrologic models. In this paper the rainfall estimation in SWAT is revised, focusing on the treatment of orographic precipitation. SWAT was applied to the Odiel river basin (SW Spain), with a surface of 2300 km2. Results show that SWAT does not reflect reallisticaly the spatial distribution of rainfall in the basin. In relation to orographic precipitation, SWAT estimates the daily precipitation in elevation bands by adding a constant amount to the recorded precipitation in the rain gauge, which depends on the increase in precipitation with altitude and the difference between the mean elevation of each band and the elevation of the recording gauge. This does not reflect rainfall in the subbasin because the increase in precipitation with altitude actually it is not constant, but depends on the amount of rainfall. An alternative methodology to represent the temporal distribution of orographic precipitation is proposed. After simulation, the deviation of runoff volume using the SWAT elevation bands was appreciably higher than that obtained with the proposed methodology.

  10. Rainfall prediction using fuzzy inference system for preliminary micro-hydro power plant planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprapty, B.; Malani, R.; Minardi, J.

    2018-04-01

    East Kalimantan is a very rich area with water sources, in the form of river streams that branch to the remote areas. The conditions of natural potency like this become alternative solution for area that has not been reached by the availability of electric energy from State Electricity Company. The river water in selected location (catchment area) which is channelled to the canal, pipeline or penstock can be used to drive the waterwheel or turbine. The amount of power obtained depends on the volume/water discharge and headwater (the effective height between the reservoir and the turbine). The water discharge is strongly influenced by the amount of rainfall. Rainfall is the amount of water falling on the flat surface for a certain period measured, in units of mm3, above the horizontal surface in the absence of evaporation, run-off and infiltration. In this study, the prediction of rainfall is done in the area of East Kalimantan which has 13 watersheds which, in principle, have the potential for the construction of Micro Hydro Power Plant. Rainfall time series data is modelled by using AR (Auto Regressive) Model based on FIS (Fuzzy Inference System). The FIS structure of the training results is then used to predict the next two years rainfall.

  11. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  12. Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, W.

    2004-05-01

    A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

  13. Quantifying Rainfall Interception Loss of a Subtropical Broadleaved Forest in Central Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ying Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors controlling seasonal rainfall interception loss are investigated by using a double-mass curve analysis, based on direct measurements of high-temporal resolution gross rainfall, throughfall and stemflow from 43 rainfall events that occurred in central Taiwan from April 2008 to April 2009. The canopy water storage capacity for the wet season was estimated to be 1.86 mm, about twice that for the dry season (0.91 mm, likely due to the large reduction in the leaf area index (LAI from 4.63 to 2.23 (m2·m−2. Changes in seasonal canopy structure and micro-meteorological conditions resulted in temporal variations in the amount of interception components, and rainfall partitioning into stemflow and throughfall. Wet canopy evaporation after rainfall contributed 41.8% of the wet season interception loss, but only 17.1% of the dry season interception loss. Wet canopy evaporation during rainfall accounted for 82.9% of the dry season interception loss, but only 58.2% of the wet season interception loss. Throughfall accounted for over 79.7% of the dry season precipitation and 76.1% of the wet season precipitation, possibly due to the change in gap fraction from 64.2% in the dry season to 50.0% in the wet season. The reduced canopy cover in the dry season also produced less stemflow than that of the wet season. The rainfall stemflow ratio ( P s f / P g was reduced from 12.6% to 8.9%. Despite relatively large changes in canopy structure, seasonal variation of the ratio of rainfall partitioned to interception was quite small. Rainfall interception loss accounted for nearly 12% of gross precipitation for both dry and wet seasons.

  14. Monitoring System for Slope Stability under Rainfall by using MEMS Acceleration Sensor IC tags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, S; Dairaku, A; Komine, H; Saito, O; Sakai, N; Isizawa, T; Maruyama, I

    2013-01-01

    Real-time warning system for slope failure under rainfall is available to disaster prevention and mitigation. Monitoring of multi-point and wireless measurements is effective because it is difficult to conclude the most dangerous part in a slope. The purpose of this study is to propose a method of monitoring system with multi-point and wireless measurements for a slope stability using MEMS acceleration sensor IC tags. MEMS acceleration sensor IC tag is an acceleration sensor microminiaturized by a technology of Micro Electro Mechanical Systems on board IC tag. Especially, low cost of the sensor will yield to the realization of the system. In order to investigate the applicability of the proposed system, a large-scale model test of artificial slope subjected to rainfall has been performed. MEMS acceleration sensor IC tags has been located on the slope and ground acceleration caused by forced vibration has been measured until the model slope collapses. The experimental results show that the MEMS acceleration sensor IC tag is comfortably available under rainfall, the characteristics of ground accelerations varies with changing the condition of the slope subjected to rainfall, and the proposed method can be applied to a real-time monitoring system for slope failure under rainfall.

  15. Sediment yield during typhoon events in relation to landslides, rainfall, and catchment areas in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Wen; Oguchi, Takashi; Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Saito, Hitoshi; Chen, Hongey; Lin, Guan-Wei; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chao, Yi-Chiung

    2018-02-01

    Debris sourced from landslides will result in environmental problems such as increased sediment discharge in rivers. This study analyzed the sediment discharge of 17 main rivers in Taiwan during 14 typhoon events, selected from the catchment area and river length, that caused landslides according to government reports. The measured suspended sediment and water discharge, collected from hydrometric stations of the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan, were used to establish rating-curve relationships, a power-law relation between them. Then sediment discharge during typhoon events was estimated using the rating-curve method and the measured data of daily water discharge. Positive correlations between sediment discharge and rainfall conditions for each river indicate that sediment discharge increases when a greater amount of rainfall or a higher intensity of rainfall falls during a typhoon event. In addition, the amount of sediment discharge during a typhoon event is mainly controlled by the total amount of rainfall, not by peak rainfall. Differences in correlation equations among the rivers suggest that catchments with larger areas produce more sediment. Catchments with relatively low sediment discharge show more distinct increases in sediment discharge in response to increases in rainfall, owing to the little opportunity for deposition in small catchments with high connectivity to rivers and the transportation of the majority of landslide debris to rivers during typhoon events. Also, differences in geomorphic and geologic conditions among catchments around Taiwan lead to a variety of suspended sediment dynamics and the sediment budget. Positive correlation between average sediment discharge and average area of landslides during typhoon events indicates that when larger landslides are caused by heavier rainfall during a typhoon event, more loose materials from the most recent landslide debris are flushed into rivers, resulting in higher sediment discharge. The high

  16. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  17. Rainfall interception from a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykes, A. P.

    1997-12-01

    Results from a programme of throughfall measurements in a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei, northwest Borneo, indicate that interception losses amount to 18% of the gross incident rainfall. The high annual rainfall experienced by the study area results in annual interception losses of around 800 mm, which may result in total annual evapotranspiration losses significantly higher than in other rainforest locations. An improved version of Gash's analytical interception model is tested on the available data using assumed values for the "forest" parameters, and is found to predict interception losses extremely well. The model predictions are based on an estimated evaporation rate during rainfall of 0.71 mm h -1. This is significantly higher than has been reported in other tropical studies. It is concluded that these results are distinctive when compared with previous results from rainforests, and that further, detailed work is required to establish whether the enhanced evaporation rate is due to advective effects associated with the maritime setting of the study area.

  18. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  19. Rainfall measurement based on in-situ storm drainage flow sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2017-01-01

    Data for adjustment of weather radar rainfall estimations are mostly obtained from rain gauge observations. However, the density of rain gauges is often very low. Yet in many urban catchments, runoff sensors are typically available which can measure the rainfall indirectly. By utilising these sen......Data for adjustment of weather radar rainfall estimations are mostly obtained from rain gauge observations. However, the density of rain gauges is often very low. Yet in many urban catchments, runoff sensors are typically available which can measure the rainfall indirectly. By utilising...... these sensors, it may be possible to improve the ground rainfall estimate, and thereby improve the quantitative precipitation estimation from weather radars for urban drainage applications. To test the hypothesis, this paper presents a rainfall measurement method based on flow rate measurements from well......-defined urban surfaces. This principle was used to design a runoff measurement system in a parking structure in Aalborg, Denmark, where it was evaluated against rain gauges. The measurements show that runoff measurements from well-defined urban surfaces perform just as well as rain gauges. This opens up...

  20. Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gofar Nurly

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–pore-water pressure analysis to evaluate the effect of rainfall infiltration on the deformation and transient pore-water pressure on slope stability. Slope stability analyses were performed at some times during and after rainfall infiltration. Results show that the critical condition for slope made by sandy material was at the end of rainfall while for clayey material was at some specified times after the rainfall ceased. Unsaturated stability analysis on sandy soil gives higher factor of safety because the soil never reached saturation. Transient analysis using unsaturated soil concept could predict more critical condition of delayed failure of slopes made up of clayey soil.

  1. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  2. Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

    2017-04-01

    In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

  3. Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

  4. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  5. prediction of rainfall in the southern highlands of tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    distribution at different places in the world. A study to ... climate indices influence rainfall. It has been observed .... Table 4: Summary of Predictors entered MLR and PCR models for MAM and OND rainfalls. .... from the cumulus clouds; rainfall is.

  6. Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara–Serengeti ... To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  7. Disaggregating radar-derived rainfall measurements in East Azarbaijan, Iran, using a spatial random-cascade model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouladi Osgouei, Hojjatollah; Zarghami, Mahdi; Ashouri, Hamed

    2017-07-01

    The availability of spatial, high-resolution rainfall data is one of the most essential needs in the study of water resources. These data are extremely valuable in providing flood awareness for dense urban and industrial areas. The first part of this paper applies an optimization-based method to the calibration of radar data based on ground rainfall gauges. Then, the climatological Z-R relationship for the Sahand radar, located in the East Azarbaijan province of Iran, with the help of three adjacent rainfall stations, is obtained. The new climatological Z-R relationship with a power-law form shows acceptable statistical performance, making it suitable for radar-rainfall estimation by the Sahand radar outputs. The second part of the study develops a new heterogeneous random-cascade model for spatially disaggregating the rainfall data resulting from the power-law model. This model is applied to the radar-rainfall image data to disaggregate rainfall data with coverage area of 512 × 512 km2 to a resolution of 32 × 32 km2. Results show that the proposed model has a good ability to disaggregate rainfall data, which may lead to improvement in precipitation forecasting, and ultimately better water-resources management in this arid region, including Urmia Lake.

  8. Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

    2016-10-01

    Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

  9. A Numerical Investigation of Vapor Intrusion — the Dynamic Response of Contaminant Vapors to Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G.; Suuberg, Eric M.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1 m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in

  10. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  11. Transport of three veterinary antimicrobials from feedlot pens via simulated rainfall runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sura, Srinivas; Degenhardt, Dani; Cessna, Allan J; Larney, Francis J; Olson, Andrew F; McAllister, Tim A

    2015-07-15

    Veterinary antimicrobials are introduced to wider environments by manure application to agricultural fields or through leaching or runoff from manure storage areas (feedlots, stockpiles, windrows, lagoons). Detected in manure, manure-treated soils, and surface and ground water near intensive cattle feeding operations, there is a concern that environmental contamination by these chemicals may promote the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Surface runoff and leaching appear to be major transport pathways by which veterinary antimicrobials eventually contaminate surface and ground water, respectively. A study was conducted to investigate the transport of three veterinary antimicrobials (chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, tylosin), commonly used in beef cattle production, in simulated rainfall runoff from feedlot pens. Mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 3.5 times higher in surface material from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Runoff rates and volumetric runoff coefficients were similar across all treatments but both were significantly higher from non-bedding (0.53Lmin(-1); 0.27) than bedding areas (0.40Lmin(-1); 0.19). In keeping with concentrations in pen surface material, mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 2.5 times higher in runoff generated from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Water solubility and sorption coefficient of antimicrobials played a role in their transport in runoff. Estimated amounts of chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and tylosin that could potentially be transported to the feedlot catch basin during a one in 100-year precipitation event were 1.3 to 3.6ghead(-1), 1.9ghead(-1), and 0.2ghead(-1), respectively. This study demonstrates the magnitude of veterinary antimicrobial transport in feedlot pen runoff and supports the necessity of catch basins for runoff containment within feedlots. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Shi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

  13. Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

  14. Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Wang-chun

    2013-04-01

    The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

  15. Testing the Beta-Lognormal Model in Amazonian Rainfall Fields Using the Generalized Space q-Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hernán D. Salas

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We study spatial scaling and complexity properties of Amazonian radar rainfall fields using the Beta-Lognormal Model (BL-Model with the aim to characterize and model the process at a broad range of spatial scales. The Generalized Space q-Entropy Function (GSEF, an entropic measure defined as a continuous set of power laws covering a broad range of spatial scales, S q ( λ ∼ λ Ω ( q , is used as a tool to check the ability of the BL-Model to represent observed 2-D radar rainfall fields. In addition, we evaluate the effect of the amount of zeros, the variability of rainfall intensity, the number of bins used to estimate the probability mass function, and the record length on the GSFE estimation. Our results show that: (i the BL-Model adequately represents the scaling properties of the q-entropy, S q, for Amazonian rainfall fields across a range of spatial scales λ from 2 km to 64 km; (ii the q-entropy in rainfall fields can be characterized by a non-additivity value, q s a t, at which rainfall reaches a maximum scaling exponent, Ω s a t; (iii the maximum scaling exponent Ω s a t is directly related to the amount of zeros in rainfall fields and is not sensitive to either the number of bins to estimate the probability mass function or the variability of rainfall intensity; and (iv for small-samples, the GSEF of rainfall fields may incur in considerable bias. Finally, for synthetic 2-D rainfall fields from the BL-Model, we look for a connection between intermittency using a metric based on generalized Hurst exponents, M ( q 1 , q 2 , and the non-extensive order (q-order of a system, Θ q, which relates to the GSEF. Our results do not exhibit evidence of such relationship.

  16. ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL AND LINEAR TREND IN MENGLUN, XISHUANGBANNA, SOUTHWEST CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xin; ZHANG Yi-ping

    2006-01-01

    @@ 1 INTRODUCTION As one of the main factors affecting input and use of precipitation by forests, rainfall also makes a difference on partitioning of gross precipitation over the canopy, equilibrium of water amount in river basins and water cycling processes[1-4].

  17. Assessment of probabilistic areal reduction factors of precipitations for the entire French territory with gridded rainfall data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouchier, Catherine; Maire, Alexis; Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

    2016-04-01

    The starting point of our study was the availability of maps of rainfall quantiles available for the entire French mainland territory at the spatial resolution of 1 km². These maps display the rainfall amounts estimated for different rainfall durations (from 15 minutes to 72 hours) and different return periods (from 2 years up to 1 000 years). They are provided by a regionalized stochastic hourly point rainfall generator, the SHYREG method which was previously developed by Irstea (Arnaud et al., 2007; Cantet and Arnaud, 2014). Being calibrated independently on numerous raingauges data (with an average density across the country of 1 raingauge per 200 km²), this method suffers from a limitation common to point-process rainfall generators: it can only reproduce point rainfall patterns and has no capacity to generate rainfall fields. It can't hence provide areal rainfall quantiles, the estimation of the latter being however needed for the construction of design rainfall or for the diagnostic of observed events. One means of bridging this gap between our local rainfall quantiles and areal rainfall quantiles is given by the concept of probabilistic areal reduction factors of rainfall (ARF) as defined by Omolayo (1993). This concept enables to estimate areal rainfall of a particular frequency within a certain amount of time from point rainfalls of the same frequency and duration. Assessing such ARF for the whole French territory is of particular interest since it should allow us to compute areal rainfall quantiles, and eventually watershed rainfall quantiles, by using the already available grids of statistical point rainfall of the SHYREG method. Our purpose was then to assess these ARF thanks to long time-series of spatial rainfall data. We have used two sets of rainfall fields: i) hourly rainfall fields from a 10-year reference database of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) over France (Tabary et al., 2012), ii) daily rainfall fields resulting from a 53-year

  18. Characteristics of Rainfall-Discharge and Water Quality at Limboto Lake, Gorontalo, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luki Subehi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Problems of high turbidity, sedimentation, water pollution and siltation occur at Limboto Lake, Gorontalo, Indonesia. The objective of this study was to analyze the rainfall-discharge relationship and its implications for water quality conditions. Secchi disk (water transparency, chlorophyll-a (chl-a, and total organic matter (TOM were measured in May 2012, September 2012 and March 2013 at three sites of the lake (L-1, L-2 and L-3 to observe the impacts on the surrounding catchment. Based on representative stations for rainfall data from 2004 to 2013, monthly averages of rainfall in March-May (166.7 mm and September (76.4 mm were used to represent the wet and dry period, respectively. Moreover, sediment traps at these three sites were installed in September 2012. Based on the analysis it is suggested that rainfall magnitude and land use change at the Alopohu River catchment influenced the amount of materials flowing into the lake, degrading the water quality. Specifically, the higher average rainfall in May (184.5 mm gave a higher average total sediment load (4.41 g/L/day. In addition, water transparency decreased with increasing chl-a. This indicates that the concentrations of sediment and nutrients, reflected by the high amount of chl-a, influenced the water quality conditions.

  19. Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diallo, M.A.

    1995-09-01

    In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

  20. Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

    2009-12-01

    A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

  1. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-10-04

    Oct 4, 2016 ... facilities and development of robust methods, especially geosta- tistically-based .... Cathedral Peak historical rainfall dataset, quality control pro- cedures .... used to assess the predictive power of the developed model. The.

  2. 10 Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to ... of crops. There is need for more research attention on the onset of rainfall and ... impacts of adverse weather conditions or.

  3. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and Dongseok Choi. 2. 1. School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M60 1QD, UK. ... This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea. 1. ..... protection. This paper only ...

  4. Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan

  5. The capacity of radar, crowdsourced personal weather stations and commercial microwave links to monitor small scale urban rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; de Vos, L. W.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.; Raupach, T. H.; Berne, A.

    2017-12-01

    For the purpose of urban rainfall monitoring high resolution rainfall measurements are desirable. Typically C-band radar can provide rainfall intensities at km grid cells every 5 minutes. Opportunistic sensing with commercial microwave links yields rainfall intensities over link paths within cities. Additionally, recent developments have made it possible to obtain large amounts of urban in situ measurements from weather amateurs in near real-time. With a known high resolution simulated rainfall event the accuracy of these three techniques is evaluated, taking into account their respective existing layouts and sampling methods. Under ideal measurement conditions, the weather station networks proves to be most promising. For accurate estimation with radar, an appropriate choice for Z-R relationship is vital. Though both the microwave links and the weather station networks are quite dense, both techniques will underestimate rainfall if not at least one link path / station captures the high intensity rainfall peak. The accuracy of each technique improves when considering rainfall at larger scales, especially by increasing time intervals, with the steepest improvements found in microwave links.

  6. Study of acid mine drainage management with evaluating climate and rainfall in East Pit 3 West Banko coal mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochyani, Neny

    2017-11-01

    Acid mine drainage is a major problem for the mining environment. The main factor that formed acid mine drainage is the volume of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to know clearly the main climate pattern of rainfall and season on the management of acid mine drainage. This study focuses on the effects of rainfall on acid mine water management. Based on daily rainfall data, monthly and seasonal patterns by using Gumbel approach is known the amount of rainfall that occurred in East Pit 3 West Banko area. The data also obtained the highest maximum daily rainfall on 165 mm/day and the lowest at 76.4 mm/day, where it is known that the rainfall conditions during the period 2007 - 2016 is from November to April so the use of lime is also slightly, While the low rainfall is from May to October and the use of lime will be more and more. Based on calculation of lime requirement for each return period, it can be seen the total of lime and financial requirement for treatment of each return period.

  7. Salt nuclei, wind and daily rainfall in Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodcock, A H; Mordy, W A

    1955-01-01

    The discovery of large sea-salt particulates at cloud levels led to the hypothesis that these particles act as nuclei on which raindrops initially form within clouds and to the suggestion that the amount of rainfall on an oceanic island might be a function of the number of the salt particles in the air. Exploratory observations of rain and airborne salt in Hawaii, which were intended to test this suggestion, are presented and discussed. These observations do not prove that greater numbers of salt nuclei are related to greater amounts of rain. They do, however, indicate that such a relationship may exist, and that additional field studies should be made which utilize the pertinent results of the present study.

  8. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  9. Variability of rainfall over small areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnels, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

  10. Adjustment of rainfall estimates from weather radars using in-situ stormwater drainage sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte

    importance as long as the estimated flow and water levels are correct. It makes sense to investigate the possibility of adjusting weather radar data to rainfall-runoff measurements instead of rain gauge measurements in order to obtain better predictions of flow and water levels. This Ph.D. study investigates......-rain gauge adjusted data is applied for urban drainage models, discrepancies between radar-estimated runoff and observed runoff still occur. The aim of urban drainage applications is to estimate flow and water levels in critical points in the system. The “true” rainfall at ground level is, therefore, of less...... how rainfall-runoff measurements can be utilised to adjust weather radars. Two traditional adjustments methods based on rain gauges were used as the basis for developing two radar-runoff adjustment methods. The first method is based on the ZR relationship describing the relation between radar...

  11. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  12. Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

    2016-01-01

    Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

  13. Rainfall recharge estimation on a nation-wide scale using satellite information in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerhoff, Rogier; White, Paul; Moore, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Models of rainfall recharge to groundwater are challenged by the need to combine uncertain estimates of rainfall, evapotranspiration, terrain slope, and unsaturated zone parameters (e.g., soil drainage and hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface). Therefore, rainfall recharge is easiest to estimate on a local scale in well-drained plains, where it is known that rainfall directly recharges groundwater. In New Zealand, this simplified approach works in the policy framework of regional councils, who manage water allocation at the aquifer and sub-catchment scales. However, a consistent overview of rainfall recharge is difficult to obtain at catchment and national scale: in addition to data uncertainties, data formats are inconsistent between catchments; the density of ground observations, where these exist, differs across regions; each region typically uses different local models for estimating recharge components; and different methods and ground observations are used for calibration and validation of these models. The research described in this paper therefore presents a nation-wide approach to estimate rainfall recharge in New Zealand. The method used is a soil water balance approach, with input data from national rainfall and soil and geology databases. Satellite data (i.e., evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and terrain) aid in the improved calculation of rainfall recharge, especially in data-sparse areas. A first version of the model has been implemented on a 1 km x 1 km and monthly scale between 2000 and 2013. A further version will include a quantification of recharge estimate uncertainty: with both "top down" input error propagation methods and catchment-wide "bottom up" assessments of integrated uncertainty being adopted. Using one nation-wide methodology opens up new possibilities: it can, for example, help in more consistent estimation of water budgets, groundwater fluxes, or other hydrological parameters. Since recharge is estimated for the entire land

  14. Toward Continental-scale Rainfall Monitoring Using Commercial Microwave Links From Cellular Communication Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and timely surface precipitation measurements are crucial for water resources management, agriculture, weather prediction, climate research, as well as ground validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks such data, and in many parts of the world the density of surface precipitation gauging networks is even rapidly declining. This development can potentially be counteracted by using received signal level data from the enormous number of microwave links used worldwide in commercial cellular communication networks. Along such links, radio signals propagate from a transmitting antenna at one base station to a receiving antenna at another base station. Rain-induced attenuation and, subsequently, path-averaged rainfall intensity can be retrieved from the signal's attenuation between transmitter and receiver. We have previously shown how one such a network can be used to retrieve the space-time dynamics of rainfall for an entire country (The Netherlands, ˜35,500 km2), based on an unprecedented number of links (˜2,400) and a rainfall retrieval algorithm that can be applied in real time. This demonstrated the potential of such networks for real-time rainfall monitoring, in particular in those parts of the world where networks of dedicated ground-based rainfall sensors are often virtually absent. The presentation will focus on the potential for upscaling this technique to continental-scale rainfall monitoring in Europe. In addition, several examples of recent applications of this technique on other continents (South America, Africa, Asia and Australia) will be given.

  15. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

  16. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

  17. Ground water level, Water storage, Soil moisture, Precipitation Variability Using Multi Satellite Data during 2003-2016 Associated with California Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J. W.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The agricultural market of California is a multi-billion-dollar industry, however in the recent years, the state is facing severe drought. It is important to have a deeper understanding of how the agriculture is affected by the amount of rainfall as well as the ground conditions in California. We have considered 5 regions (each 2 degree by 2 degree) covering whole of California. Multi satellite (MODIS Terra, GRACE, GLDAS) data through NASA Giovanni portal were used to study long period variability 2003 - 2016 of ground water level and storage, soil moisture, root zone moisture level, precipitation and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) in these 5 regions. Our detailed analysis of these parameters show a strong correlation between the NDVI and some of these parameters. NDVI represents greenness showing strong drought conditions during the period 2011-2016 due to poor rainfall and recharge of ground water in the mid and southern parts of California. Effect of ground water level and underground storage will be also discussed on the frequency of earthquakes in five regions of California. The mid and southern parts of California show increasing frequency of small earthquakes during drought periods.

  18. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  19. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  20. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  1. Future rainfall variations reduce abundances of aboveground arthropods in model agroecosystems with different soil types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann G. Zaller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios for Central Europe predict less frequent but heavier rainfalls and longer drought periods during the growing season. This is expected to alter arthropods in agroecosystems that are important as biocontrol agents, herbivores or food for predators (e.g. farmland birds. In a lysimeter facility (totally 18 3-m2-plots, we experimentally tested the effects of long-term past vs. prognosticated future rainfall variations (15% increased rainfall per event, 25% more dry days according to regionalized climate change models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on aboveground arthropods in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cultivated at three different soil types (calcaric phaeozem, calcic chernozem and gleyic phaeozem. Soil types were established 17 years and rainfall treatments one month before arthropod sampling; treatments were fully crossed and replicated three times. Aboveground arthropods were assessed by suction sampling, their mean abundances (± SD differed between April, May and June with 20 ± 3 m-2, 90 ± 35 m-2 and 289 ± 93 individuals m-2, respectively. Averaged across sampling dates, future rainfall reduced the abundance of spiders (Araneae, -47%, cicadas and leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha, -39%, beetles (Coleoptera, -52%, ground beetles (Carabidae, -41%, leaf beetles (Chrysomelidae, -64%, spring tails (Collembola, -58%, flies (Diptera, -73% and lacewings (Neuroptera, -73% but increased the abundance of snails (Gastropoda, +69%. Across sampling dates, soil types had no effects on arthropod abundances. Arthropod diversity was neither affected by rainfall nor soil types. Arthropod abundance was positively correlated with weed biomass for almost all taxa; abundance of Hemiptera and of total arthropods was positively correlated with weed density. These detrimental effects of future rainfall varieties on arthropod taxa in wheat fields can potentially alter arthropod-associated agroecosystem services.

  2. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Brijesh; Patra, Kanhu Charan; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June-September or JJAS) from 2005-2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall. The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas, TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimates the amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capture the high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well as the plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfall products with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies that TRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for the topography.

  3. Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

    2016-04-01

    Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

  4. Dry/Wet Conditions Monitoring Based on TRMM Rainfall Data and Its Reliability Validation over Poyang Lake Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianghu Li

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Local dry/wet conditions are of great concern in regional water resource and floods/droughts disaster risk management. Satellite-based precipitation products have greatly improved their accuracy and applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground rain gauges data. This paper investigated the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM rainfall data for monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin during 1998–2010, and validated its reliability with rain gauges data from 14 national meteorological stations in the basin. The results show that: (1 the daily TRMM rainfall data does not describe the occurrence and contribution rates of precipitation accurately, but monthly TRMM data have a good linear relationship with rain gauges rainfall data; (2 both the Z index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI based on monthly TRMM rainfall data oscillate around zero and show a consistent interannual variability as compared with rain gauges data; (3 the spatial pattern of moisture status, either in dry months or wet months, based on both the Z index and SPI using TRMM data, agree with the observed rainfall. In conclusion, the monthly TRMM rainfall data can be used for monitoring the variation and spatial distribution of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin.

  5. Gauge-adjusted rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fencl

    2017-01-01

    experimental layouts of ground truth from rain gauges (RGs with different spatial and temporal resolutions. The results suggest that CMLs adjusted by RGs with a temporal aggregation of up to 1 h (i provide precise high-resolution QPEs (relative error  < 7 %, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient  >  0.75 and (ii that the combination of both sensor types clearly outperforms each individual monitoring system. Unfortunately, adjusting CML observations to RGs with longer aggregation intervals of up to 24 h has drawbacks. Although it substantially reduces bias, it unfavourably smoothes out rainfall peaks of high intensities, which is undesirable for stormwater management. A similar, but less severe, effect occurs due to spatial averaging when CMLs are adjusted to remote RGs. Nevertheless, even here, adjusted CMLs perform better than RGs alone. Furthermore, we provide first evidence that the joint use of multiple CMLs together with RGs also reduces bias in their QPEs. In summary, we believe that our adjustment method has great potential to improve the space–time resolution of current urban rainfall monitoring networks. Nevertheless, future work should aim to better understand the reason for the observed systematic error in QPEs from CMLs.

  6. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2014-01-01

    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  7. Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

  8. Determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayorga Marquez, Ruth

    2003-01-01

    Considering that rainfall is the natural event that more often triggers landslides, it is important to study the relationship between this phenomenon and the occurrence of earth mass movements, by determining rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in different zones of Colombia. The research presents a methodology that allows proposing rainfall thresholds that trigger landslides in Colombia, by means of a relationship between the accumulated rain in the soil (antecedent rainfall) and the rain that falls the day of the landslide occurrence (event rainfall)

  9. The stable isotope amount effect: New insights from NEXRAD echo tops, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Shanley, James B.; Zegarra, Jan Paul; Coplen, Tyler B.

    2009-01-01

    The stable isotope amount effect has often been invoked to explain patterns of isotopic composition of rainfall in the tropics. This paper describes a new approach, correlating the isotopic composition of precipitation with cloud height and atmospheric temperature using NEXRAD radar echo tops, which are a measure of the maximum altitude of rainfall within the clouds. The seasonal differences in echo top altitudes and their corresponding temperatures are correlated with the isotopic composition of rainfall. These results offer another factor to consider in interpretation of the seasonal variation in isotopic composition of tropical rainfall, which has previously been linked to amount or rainout effects and not to temperature effects. Rain and cloud water isotope collectors in the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico were sampled monthly for three years and precipitation was analyzed for δ18O and δ2H. Precipitation enriched in 18O and 2H occurred during the winter dry season (approximately December–May) and was associated with a weather pattern of trade wind showers and frontal systems. During the summer rainy season (approximately June–November), precipitation was depleted in 18O and 2H and originated in low pressure systems and convection associated with waves embedded in the prevailing easterly airflow. Rain substantially depleted in 18O and 2H compared to the aforementioned weather patterns occurred during large low pressure systems. Weather analysis showed that 29% of rain input to the Luquillo Mountains was trade wind orographic rainfall, and 30% of rainfall could be attributed to easterly waves and low pressure systems. Isotopic signatures associated with these major climate patterns can be used to determine their influence on streamflow and groundwater recharge and to monitor possible effects of climate change on regional water resources.

  10. The cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall-groundwater system in Pingtung plain, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2013-04-01

    The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events has been observed recently in Taiwan. Particularly, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Fanapi, and Typhoon Megi consecutively brought record-breaking intensity and magnitude of rainfalls to different locations of Taiwan in these two years. However, records show the extreme rainfall events did not elevate the amount of annual rainfall accordingly. Conversely, the increasing frequency of droughts has also been occurring in Taiwan. The challenges have been confronted by governmental agencies and scientific communities to come up with effective adaptation strategies for natural disaster reduction and sustainable environment establishment. Groundwater has long been a reliable water source for a variety of domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses because of its stable quantity and quality. In Taiwan, groundwater accounts for the largest proportion of all water resources for about 40%. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge, find the non-stationary time-frequency relations between the variations of rainfall and groundwater levels to understand the phase difference of time series. Groundwater level data and over-50-years hourly rainfall records obtained from 20 weather stations in Pingtung Plain, Taiwan has been collected. Extract the space-time pattern by EOF method, which is a decomposition of a signal or data set in terms of orthogonal basis functions determined from the data for both time series and spatial patterns, to identify the important spatial pattern of groundwater recharge and using cross wavelet and wavelet coherence method to identify the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels. Results show that EOF method can specify the spatial-temporal patterns which represents certain geological characteristics and other mechanisms of groundwater, and the wavelet coherence method can identify general correlation between

  11. The Impact of Rainfall on Fecal Coliform Bacteria in Bayou Dorcheat (North Louisiana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B. Tchounwou

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Fecal coliform bacteria are the most common pollutant in rivers and streams. In Louisiana, it has been reported that 37% of surveyed river miles, 31% of lakes, and 23% of estuarine water had some level of contamination. The objective of this research was to assess the effect of surface runoff amounts and rainfall amount parameters on fecal coliform bacterial densities in Bayou Dorcheat in Louisiana. Bayou Dorcheat has been designated by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality as a waterway that has uses such as primary contact recreation, secondary contact recreation, propagation of fish and wildlife, agriculture and as being an outstanding natural resource water. Samples from Bayou Dorcheat were collected monthly and analyzed for the presence of fecal coliforms. Fecal coliforms isolated from these samples were identified to the species level. The analysis of the bacterial levels was performed following standard test protocols as described in Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater. Information regarding the rainfall amounts and surface runoff amounts for the selected years was retrieved from the Louisiana Office of State Climatology. It was found that a significant increase in the fecal coliform numbers may be associated with average rainfall amounts. Possible sources of elevated coliform counts could include sewage discharges from municipal treatment plants and septic tanks, storm water overflows, and runoff from pastures and range lands. It can be concluded that nonpoint source pollution that is carried by surface runoff has a significant effect on bacterial levels in water resources.

  12. Rainfall prediction methodology with binary multilayer perceptron neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, João Trevizoli; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio

    2018-05-01

    Precipitation, in short periods of time, is a phenomenon associated with high levels of uncertainty and variability. Given its nature, traditional forecasting techniques are expensive and computationally demanding. This paper presents a soft computing technique to forecast the occurrence of rainfall in short ranges of time by artificial neural networks (ANNs) in accumulated periods from 3 to 7 days for each climatic season, mitigating the necessity of predicting its amount. With this premise it is intended to reduce the variance, rise the bias of data and lower the responsibility of the model acting as a filter for quantitative models by removing subsequent occurrences of zeros values of rainfall which leads to bias the and reduces its performance. The model were developed with time series from ten agriculturally relevant regions in Brazil, these places are the ones with the longest available weather time series and and more deficient in accurate climate predictions, it was available 60 years of daily mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation which were used to estimate the potential evapotranspiration and water balance; these were the variables used as inputs for the ANNs models. The mean accuracy of the model for all the accumulated periods were 78% on summer, 71% on winter 62% on spring and 56% on autumn, it was identified that the effect of continentality, the effect of altitude and the volume of normal precipitation, have an direct impact on the accuracy of the ANNs. The models have peak performance in well defined seasons, but looses its accuracy in transitional seasons and places under influence of macro-climatic and mesoclimatic effects, which indicates that this technique can be used to indicate the eminence of rainfall with some limitations.

  13. Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2010-09-01

    One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall

  14. Prediction of Meiyu rainfall in Taiwan by multi-lead physical-empirical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen; Lu, Mong-Ming

    2015-06-01

    Taiwan is located at the dividing point of the tropical and subtropical monsoons over East Asia. Taiwan has double rainy seasons, the Meiyu in May-June and the Typhoon rains in August-September. To predict the amount of Meiyu rainfall is of profound importance to disaster preparedness and water resource management. The seasonal forecast of May-June Meiyu rainfall has been a challenge to current dynamical models and the factors controlling Taiwan Meiyu variability has eluded climate scientists for decades. Here we investigate the physical processes that are possibly important for leading to significant fluctuation of the Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Based on this understanding, we develop a physical-empirical model to predict Taiwan Meiyu rainfall at a lead time of 0- (end of April), 1-, and 2-month, respectively. Three physically consequential and complementary predictors are used: (1) a contrasting sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (2) the tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic that is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation, and (3) a surface warming tendency in northeast Asia. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Philippine Sea anticyclonic anomalies and the anomalous cyclone near the southeastern China in the ensuing summer, which together favor increasing Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Note that the identified precursors at various lead-times represent essentially the same physical processes, suggesting the robustness of the predictors. The physical empirical model made by these predictors is capable of capturing the Taiwan rainfall variability with a significant cross-validated temporal correlation coefficient skill of 0.75, 0.64, and 0.61 for 1979-2012 at the 0-, 1-, and 2-month lead time, respectively. The physical-empirical model concept used here can be extended to summer monsoon rainfall prediction over the Southeast Asia and other regions.

  15. A method for predicting monthly rainfall patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    A brief survey is made of previous methods that have been used to predict rainfall trends or drought spells in different parts of the earth. The basic methodologies or theoretical strategies used in these methods are compared with contents of a recent theory of Sun-Weather/Climate links (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987a; 1987b; 1987c) which point towards the possibility of practical climatic predictions. It is shown that not only is the theoretical basis of each of these methodologies or strategies fully incorporated into the above-named theory, but also this theory may be used to develop a technique by which future monthly rainfall patterns can be predicted in further and finer details. We describe the latter technique and then illustrate its workability by means of predictions made on monthly rainfall patterns in some East African meteorological stations. (author). 43 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

  16. Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.

    2014-02-01

    Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

  17. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...... applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value......Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  18. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  19. Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

    2012-04-01

    Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

  20. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  1. How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

  2. Rainfall Runoff Mitigation by Retrofitted Permeable Pavement in an Urban Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shafique

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Permeable pavement is an effective low impact development (LID practice that can play an important role in reducing rainfall runoff amount in urban areas. Permeable interlocking concrete pavement (PICP was retrofitted in a tremendously developed area of Seoul, Korea and the data was monitored to evaluate its effect on the hydrology and stormwater quality performance for four months. Rainfall runoff was first absorbed by different layers of the PICP system and then contributed to the sewage system. This not only helps to reduce the runoff volume, but also increase the time of concentration. In this experiment, different real rain events were observed and the field results were investigated to check the effectiveness of the PICP system for controlling the rainfall runoff in Songpa, Korea. From the analysis of data, results showed that the PCIP system was very effective in controlling rainfall runoff. Overall runoff reduction performance from the PCIP was found to be around 30–65% during various storm events. In addition, PICP significantly reduced peak flows in different storm events which is very helpful in reducing the chances of water-logging in an urbanized area. Research results also allow us to sum up that retrofitted PICP is a very effective approach for rainfall runoff management in urban areas.

  3. Characterizing fluvial heavy metal pollutions under different rainfall conditions: Implication for aquatic environment protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lixun; Zhao, Bo; Xu, Gang; Guan, Yuntao

    2018-09-01

    Globally, fluvial heavy metal (HM) pollution has recently become an increasingly severe problem. However, few studies have investigated the variational characteristics of fluvial HMs after rain over long periods (≥1 year). The Dakan River in Xili Reservoir watershed (China) was selected as a case study to investigate pollution levels, influencing factors, and sources of HMs under different rainfall conditions during 2015 and 2016. Fluvial HMs showed evident spatiotemporal variations attributable to the coupled effects of pollution generation and rainfall diffusion. Fluvial HM concentrations were significantly associated with rainfall characteristics (e.g., rainfall intensity, rainfall amount, and antecedent dry period) and river flow, which influenced the generation and the transmission of fluvial HMs in various ways. Moreover, this interrelationship depended considerably on the HM type and particle size distribution. Mn, Pb, Cr, and Ni were major contributors to high values of the comprehensive pollution index; therefore, they should be afforded special attention. Additionally, quantitative source apportionment of fluvial HMs was conducted by combining principal component analysis with multiple linear regression and chemical mass balance models to obtain comprehensive source profiles. Finally, an environment-friendly control strategy coupling "source elimination" and "transport barriers" was proposed for aquatic environment protection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  5. Ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmond, J.K.; Cowart, J.B.

    1982-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: background and theory (introduction; fractionation in the hydrosphere; mobility factors; radioisotope evolution and aquifer classification; aquifer disequilibria and geochemical fronts); case studies (introduction; (a) conservative, and (b) non-conservative, behaviour); ground water dating applications (general requirements; radon and helium; radium isotopes; uranium isotopes). (U.K.)

  6. Ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmond, J.K.; Cowart, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    The great variations in concentrations and activity ratios of 234 U/ 238 U in ground waters and the features causing elemental and isotopic mobility in the hydrosphere are discussed. Fractionation processes and their application to hydrology and other environmental problems such as earthquake, groundwater and aquifer dating are described. (UK)

  7. Forest amount affects soybean productivity in Brazilian agricultural frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rattis, L.; Brando, P. M.; Marques, E. Q.; Queiroz, N.; Silverio, D. V.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past three decades, large tracts of tropical forests have been converted to crop and pasturelands across southern Amazonia, largely to meet the increasing worldwide demand for protein. As the world's population continue to grow and consume more protein per capita, forest conversion to grow more crops could be a potential solution to meet such demand. However, widespread deforestation is expected to negatively affect crop productivity via multiple pathways (e.g., thermal regulation, rainfall, local moisture, pest control, among others). To quantify how deforestation affects crop productivity, we modeled the relationship between forest amount and enhanced vegetation index (EVI—a proxy for crop productivity) during the soybean planting season across southern Amazonia. Our hypothesis that forest amount causes increased crop productivity received strong support. We found that the maximum MODIS-based EVI in soybean fields increased as a function of forest amount across three spatial-scales, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km, 5 km, 10 km, 15 km and 20 km. However, the strength of this relationship varied across years and with precipitation, but only at the local scale (e.g., 500 meters and 1 km radius). Our results highlight the importance of considering forests to design sustainable landscapes.

  8. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  9. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  10. Self-Organized Criticality of Rainfall in Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiliang Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall is a complexity dynamics process. In this paper, our objective is to find the evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC for rain datasets in China by employing the theory and method of SOC. For this reason, we analyzed the long-term rain records of five meteorological stations in Henan, a central province of China. Three concepts, that is, rain duration, drought duration, accumulated rain amount, are proposed to characterize these rain events processes. We investigate their dynamics property by using scale invariant and found that the long-term rain processes in central China indeed exhibit the feature of self-organized criticality. The proposed theory and method may be suitable to analyze other datasets from different climate zones in China.

  11. Performance of high-resolution X-band radar for rainfall measurement in The Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. van de Beek

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of 195 rainfall events gathered with the X-band weather radar SOLIDAR and a tipping bucket rain gauge network near Delft, The Netherlands, between May 1993 and April 1994. The aim of this paper is to present a thorough analysis of a climatological dataset using a high spatial (120 m and temporal (16 s resolution X-band radar. This makes it a study of the potential for high-resolution rainfall measurements with non-polarimetric X-band radar over flat terrain. An appropriate radar reflectivity – rain rate relation is derived from measurements of raindrop size distributions and compared with radar – rain gauge data. The radar calibration is assessed using a long-term comparison of rain gauge measurements with corresponding radar reflectivities as well as by analyzing the evolution of the stability of ground clutter areas over time. Three different methods for ground clutter correction as well as the effectiveness of forward and backward attenuation correction algorithms have been studied. Five individual rainfall events are discussed in detail to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of high-resolution X-band radar and the effectiveness of the presented correction methods. X-band radar is found to be able to measure the space-time variation of rainfall at high resolution, far greater than what can be achieved by rain gauge networks or a typical operational C-band weather radar. On the other hand, SOLIDAR can suffer from receiver saturation, wet radome attenuation as well as signal loss along the path. During very strong convective situations the signal can even be lost completely. In combination with several rain gauges for quality control, high resolution X-band radar is considered to be suitable for rainfall monitoring over relatively small (urban catchments. These results offer great prospects for the new high resolution polarimetric doppler X-band radar IDRA.

  12. Rainfall drives atmospheric ice-nucleating particles in the coastal climate of southern Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Conen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Ice-nucleating particles (INPs active at modest supercooling (e.g. −8 °C; INP−8 can transform clouds from liquid to mixed phase, even at very small number concentrations (< 10 m−3. Over the course of 15 months, we found very similar patterns in weekly concentrations of INP−8 in PM10 (median  =  1.7 m−3, maximum  =  10.1 m−3 and weekly amounts of rainfall (median  =  28 mm, maximum  =  153 mm at Birkenes, southern Norway. Most INP−8 were probably aerosolised locally by the impact of raindrops on plant, litter and soil surfaces. Major snowfall and heavy rain onto snow-covered ground were not mirrored by enhanced numbers of INP−8. Further, transport model calculations for large (> 4 m−3 and small (< 4 m−3 numbers of INP−8 revealed that potential source regions likely to provide precipitation to southern Norway were associated with large numbers of INP−8. The proportion of land cover and land use type in potential source regions was similar for large and small numbers of INP−8. In PM2. 5 we found consistently about half as many INP−8 as in PM10. From mid-May to mid-September, INP−8 correlated positively with the fungal spore markers arabitol and mannitol, suggesting that some fraction of INP−8 during that period may consist of fungal spores. In the future, warmer winters with more rain instead of snow may enhance airborne concentrations of INP−8 during the cold season in southern Norway and in other regions with a similar climate.

  13. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  14. Rainfall erosivity in Brazil: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we review the erosivity studies conducted in Brazil to verify the quality and representativeness of the results generated and to provide a greater understanding of the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) in Brazil. We searched the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar datab...

  15. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

  16. Water Conservation Education with a Rainfall Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Hans; Kessen, Shelly

    1997-01-01

    Describes a program in which a rainfall simulator was used to promote water conservation by showing water infiltration, water runoff, and soil erosion. The demonstrations provided a good background for the discussion of issues such as water conservation, crop rotation, and conservation tillage practices. The program raised awareness of…

  17. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    1995-01-01

    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...

  18. Rainfall measurement using cell phone links

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schip, van het T.I.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Meirink, J.F.; Delden, van A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Commercial cellular telecommunication networks can be used for rainfall estimation by measuring the attenuation of electromagnetic signals transmitted between antennas from microwave links. However, as the received link signal may also decrease during dry periods, a method to separate wet and dry

  19. Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

  20. Characterizing rainfall in the Tenerife island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; del Jesus, Manuel; Losada Rodriguez, Inigo

    2017-04-01

    In many locations, rainfall data are collected through networks of meteorological stations. The data collection process is nowadays automated in many places, leading to the development of big databases of rainfall data covering extensive areas of territory. However, managers, decision makers and engineering consultants tend not to extract most of the information contained in these databases due to the lack of specific software tools for their exploitation. Here we present the modeling and development effort put in place in the Tenerife island in order to develop MENSEI-L, a software tool capable of automatically analyzing a complete rainfall database to simplify the extraction of information from observations. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information derived from atmospheric conditions to separate the complete time series into homogeneous groups where statistical distributions are fitted. Normal and extreme regimes are obtained in this manner. MENSEI-L is also able to complete missing data in the time series and to generate synthetic stations by using Kriging techniques. These techniques also serve to generate the spatial regimes of precipitation, both normal and extreme ones. MENSEI-L makes use of weather type information to also provide a stochastic three-day probability forecast for rainfall.

  1. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    annual, Kiremt (June-September) and Belg (February-May) rainfall, using I 0 selected ... the significance of trends in hydrometer-logical time series (Yue et al., 2002(2)). The .... then the Auto Regressive One (AR (I)) is removed from the r,' by.

  2. On the determination of trends in rainfall

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-02-19

    Feb 19, 2008 ... it was decided to start from the inherent distribution of rainfall and develop a method for determining temporal .... first log-transformed to stabilise the variance of the time series ... the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter had a very high probability of ... seasonality, the SKT test and a t-test adjusted for seasonality.

  3. The linkage between household water consumption and rainfall in the semi-arid region of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messakh, J. J.; Moy, D. L.; Mojo, D.; Maliti, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have shown that the amount of water consumption by communities will depend on the factors of water consumption patterns that are influenced by social, cultural, economic and local climate conditions. Research on the linkage between rainfall and household water consumption in semi-arid areas of Indonesia has never been done. This study has been conducted on 17 regions in NTT, and case study has taken samples in one town and one village. The research used survey and documentation method. The results show that the average amount of household water consumption in semi-arid region of East Nusa Tenggara is 107 liters / person / day. Statistical test results using Pearson correlation found r = -0.194 and sig = 0.448. This means that there is a negative correlation between rainfall and household water consumption. The greater the rainfall the smaller the consumption of water, or the smaller the rainfall the greater the consumption of water, but the linkage is not significant. Research shows that the amount of household water consumption will be influenced by many interrelated factors and none of the most dominant factors, including the size of the rainfall that occurs in a region.

  4. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  5. [Characteristics of nutrient loss by runoff in sloping arable land of yellow-brown under different rainfall intensities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ling; Liu, De-Fu; Song, Lin-Xu; Cui, Yu-Jie; Zhang, Gei

    2013-06-01

    In order to investigate the loss characteristics of N and P through surface flow and interflow under different rainfall intensities, a field experiment was conducted on the sloping arable land covered by typical yellow-brown soils inXiangxi River watershed by artificial rainfall. The results showed that the discharge of surface flow, total runoff and sediment increased with the increase of rain intensity, while the interflow was negatively correlated with rain intensity under the same total rainfall. TN, DN and DP were all flushed at the very beginning in surface flow underdifferent rainfall intensities; TP fluctuated and kept consistent in surface flow without obvious downtrend. While TN, DN and DP in interflow kept relatively stable in the whole runoff process, TP was high at the early stage, then rapidly decreased with time and kept steady finally. P was directly influenced by rainfall intensity, its concentration in the runoff increased with the increase of the rainfall intensity, the average concentration of N and P both exceeded the threshold of eutrophication of freshwater. The higher the amount of P loss was, the higher the rain intensity. The change of N loss was the opposite. The contribution rate of TN loss carried by surface flow increased from 36.5% to 57.6% with the increase of rainfall intensity, but surface flow was the primary form of P loss which contributed above 90.0%. Thus, it is crucial to control interflow in order to reduce N loss. In addition, measures should be taken to effectively manage soil erosion to mitigate P loss. The proportion of dissolved nitrogen in surface flow elevated with the decrease of rainfall intensity, but in interflow, dissolved form was predominant. P was exported mainly in the form of particulate under different rainfall intensities and runoff conditions.

  6. Ground-Water Occurrence and Contribution to Streamflow, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingerich, Stephen B.

    1999-01-01

    The study area lies on the northern flank of the East Maui Volcano (Haleakala) and covers about 129 square miles between the drainage basins of Maliko Gulch to the west and Makapipi Stream to the east. About 989 million gallons per day of rainfall and 176 million gallons per day of fog drip reaches the study area and about 529 million gallons per day enters the ground-water system as recharge. Average annual ground-water withdrawal from wells totals only about 3 million gallons per day; proposed (as of 1998) additional withdrawals total about 18 million gallons per day. Additionally, tunnels and ditches of an extensive irrigation network directly intercept at least 10 million gallons per day of ground water. The total amount of average annual streamflow in gaged stream subbasins upstream of 1,300 feet altitude is about 255 million gallons per day and the total amount of average annual base flow is about 62 million gallons per day. Six major surface-water diversion systems in the study area have diverted an average of 163 million gallons per day of streamflow (including nearly all base flow of diverted streams) for irrigation and domestic supply in central Maui during 1925-97. Fresh ground water is found in two main forms. West of Keanae Valley, ground-water flow appears to be dominated by a variably saturated system. A saturated zone in the uppermost rock unit, the Kula Volcanics, is separated from a freshwater lens near sea level by an unsaturated zone in the underlying Honomanu Basalt. East of Keanae Valley, the ground-water system appears to be fully saturated above sea level to altitudes greater than 2,000 feet. The total average annual streamflow of gaged streams west of Keanae Valley is about 140 million gallons per day at 1,200 feet to 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast. All of the base flow measured in the study area west of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the high

  7. Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

    2017-08-01

    Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

  8. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  9. Ground Pollution Science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Jong Min; Bae, Jae Geun

    1997-08-01

    This book deals with ground pollution science and soil science, classification of soil and fundamentals, ground pollution and human, ground pollution and organic matter, ground pollution and city environment, environmental problems of the earth and ground pollution, soil pollution and development of geological features of the ground, ground pollution and landfill of waste, case of measurement of ground pollution.

  10. The partitioning of litter carbon during litter decomposition under different rainfall patterns: a laboratory study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Szlavecz, K. A.; Langley, J. A.; Pitz, S.; Chang, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying litter C into different C fluxes during litter decomposition is necessary to understand carbon cycling under changing climatic conditions. Rainfall patterns are predicted to change in the future, and their effects on the fate of litter carbon are poorly understood. Soils from deciduous forests in Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC) in Maryland, USA were collected to reconstruct soil columns in the lab. 13C labeled tulip poplar leaf litter was used to trace carbon during litter decomposition. Top 1% and the mean of 15-minute historical precipitation data from nearby weather stations were considered as extreme and control rainfall intensity, respectively. Both intensity and frequency of rainfall were manipulated, while the total amount was kept constant. A pulse of CO2 efflux was detected right after each rainfall event in the soil columns with leaf litter. After the first event, CO2 efflux of the control rainfall treatment soils increased to threefold of the CO2 efflux before rain event and that of the extreme treatment soils increased to fivefold. However, in soils without leaf litter, CO2 efflux was suppressed right after rainfall events. After each rainfall event, the leaf litter contribution to CO2 efflux first showed an increase, decreased sharply in the following two days, and then stayed relatively constant. In soil columns with leaf litter, the order of cumulative CO2 efflux was control > extreme > intermediate. The order of cumulative CO2 efflux in the bare soil treatment was extreme > intermediate > control. The order of volume of leachate from different treatments was extreme > intermediate > control. Our initial results suggest that more intense rainfall events result in larger pulses of CO2, which is rarely measured in the field. Additionally, soils with and without leaf litter respond differently to precipitation events. This is important to consider in temperate regions where leaf litter cover changes throughout the year

  11. Wageningen Urban Rainfall Experiment 2014 (WURex14): Experimental setup and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leth, Thomas C.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Hazenberg, Pieter; Berne, Alexis

    2016-04-01

    Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been shown to be able to provide valuable information concerning the space-time variability of rainfall. In particular over urban areas, where network densities are generally high, they have the potential to complement existing dedicated infrastructure to measure rainfall (gauges, radars). In addition, microwave links provide a great opportunity for ground-based rainfall measurement for those land surface areas of the world where gauges and radars are generally lacking. Such information is not only crucial for water management and agriculture, but also for instance for ground validation of space-borne rainfall estimates such as those provided by the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) mission. WURex14 is dedicated to address several errors and uncertainties associated with such quantitative precipitation estimates in detail. The core of the experiment is provided by three co-located microwave links installed between two major buildings on the Wageningen University campus, approximately 2 km apart: a 38 GHz commercial microwave link, provided by T-Mobile NL, and 26 GHz and 38 GHz (dual-polarization) research microwave links from RAL. Transmitting and receiving antennas have been attached to masts installed on the roofs of the two buildings, about 30 m above the ground. This setup has been complemented with a Scintec infrared Large-Aperture Scintillometer, installed over the same path, as well as 5 Parsivel optical disdrometers and an automated rain gauge positioned at several locations along the path. Temporal sampling of the received signals was performed at a rate of 20 Hz. The setup is being monitored by time-lapse cameras to assess the state of the antennas as well as the atmosphere. Finally, data is available from the KNMI weather radars and an automated weather station situated just outside Wageningen. The experiment has been active between August 2014 and December 2015. We give a global overview of

  12. Extreme value analysis of rainfall data for Kalpakkam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pramod Kumar; John Arul, A.; Ramkrishnan, M.; Bhuvana, V.

    2016-01-01

    Flood hazard evaluation is an important safety study for a Nuclear Power Plant. In the present study flood hazard at PFBR site due to rainfall is evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment is daily annual maximum rainfall (24 hrs data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law, and exponential distribution and return period has been estimated. The predicted 100 yrs return period rainfall for Kalpakkam ranges from 240 mm to 365 mm in a day and 1000 yrs return period rainfall ranges from 320 mm to 790 min in a day. To study the stationarity of rainfall data a moving window estimate of the parameters (exponential distribution) have also been performed. (author)

  13. Investigation into increasing short-duration rainfall intensities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-04-03

    Apr 3, 2015 ... This study explores this expectation by using historical short-duration ... weather station 5-min rainfall data were combined to extend the effective ... evidence was found of trends or indications of changes in rainfall intensities.

  14. GPM ground validation via commercial cellular networks: an exploratory approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Brasjen, Noud; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2016-04-01

    The suitability of commercial microwave link networks for ground validation of GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) data is evaluated here. Two state-of-the-art rainfall products are compared over the land surface of the Netherlands for a period of 7 months, i.e., rainfall maps from commercial cellular communication networks and Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). Commercial microwave link networks are nowadays the core component in telecommunications worldwide. Rainfall rates can be retrieved from measurements of attenuation between transmitting and receiving antennas. If adequately set up, these networks enable rainfall monitoring tens of meters above the ground at high spatiotemporal resolutions (temporal sampling of seconds to tens of minutes, and spatial sampling of hundreds of meters to tens of kilometers). The GPM mission is the successor of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). For two years now, IMERG offers rainfall estimates across the globe (180°W - 180°E and 60°N - 60°S) at spatiotemporal resolutions of 0.1° x 0.1° every 30 min. These two data sets are compared against a Dutch gauge-adjusted radar data set, considered to be the ground truth given its accuracy, spatiotemporal resolution and availability. The suitability of microwave link networks in satellite rainfall evaluation is of special interest, given the independent character of this technique, its high spatiotemporal resolutions and availability. These are valuable assets for water management and modeling of floods, landslides, and weather extremes; especially in places where rain gauge networks are scarce or poorly maintained, or where weather radar networks are too expensive to acquire and/or maintain.

  15. Periods of high intensity rainfall and the safety of the Angra dos Reis nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolli, D.

    1993-01-01

    The high precipitation rates aggravate the consequences of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), as determined by probabilistic risk assessment. A 30-year rainfall series was analysed, aiming at calculating the probability of occurring a given amount q of precipitation during a certain period of n days. The nine highest precipitation amounts have also been determined. The results show there was a rainier climate in the '50 s and '60 s than in the '70 s and '80 s. The risk of catastrophic landslide has been enhanced as an environmental impact of the construction of the Rio-Santos highway and NPP which have not yet gone through an abnormal rainfall period. It has been suggested that criteria should be established to reduce the nuclear power and shut down the reactor when the precipitation accumulates to a dangerous limit. (author)

  16. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  17. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

  18. Mapping extreme rainfall in the Northwest Portugal region: statistical analysis and spatial modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

    2010-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude

  19. Evaluating the MSG satellite Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate for extreme rainfall monitoring over northern Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saoussen Dhib

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge and evaluation of extreme precipitation is important for water resources and flood risk management, soil and land degradation, and other environmental issues. Due to the high potential threat to local infrastructure, such as buildings, roads and power supplies, heavy precipitation can have an important social and economic impact on society. At present, satellite derived precipitation estimates are becoming more readily available. This paper aims to investigate the potential use of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate (MPE for extreme rainfall assessment in Tunisia. The MSGMPE data combine microwave rain rate estimations with SEVIRI thermal infrared channel data, using an EUMETSAT production chain in near real time mode. The MPE data can therefore be used in a now-casting mode, and are potentially useful for extreme weather early warning and monitoring. Daily precipitation observed across an in situ gauge network in the north of Tunisia were used during the period 2007–2009 for validation of the MPE extreme event data. As a first test of the MSGMPE product's performance, very light to moderate rainfall classes, occurring between January and October 2007, were evaluated. Extreme rainfall events were then selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (>50 mm/day occurring at least at one ground station. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October and the wet winter season (from November to April. Interpolated gauge rainfall maps were then compared to MSGMPE data available from the EUMETSAT UMARF archive or from the GEONETCast direct dissemination system. The summation of the MPE data at 5 and/or 15 min time intervals over a 24 h period, provided a basis for comparison. The MSGMPE product was not very effective in the detection of very light and light rain events. Better results were obtained for the slightly

  20. Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. T. Ayehu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor ground observations or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data over the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia for the period of 2000 to 2015. In addition, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT 3 and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2 products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. From the overall analysis at dekadal (10 days and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited better performance in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. An evaluation based on categorical/volumetric and continuous statistics indicated that CHIRPS has the greatest skills in detecting rainfall events (POD  =  0.99, 1.00 and measure of volumetric rainfall (VHI  =  1.00, 1.00, the highest correlation coefficients (r =  0.81, 0.88, better bias values (0.96, 0.96, and the lowest RMSE (28.45 mm dekad−1, 59.03 mm month−1 than TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products at dekadal and monthly analysis, respectively. CHIRPS overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence (up to 31 % at dekadal scale, although the volume of rainfall recorded during those events was very small. Indeed, TAMSAT 3 has shown a comparable performance with that of the CHIRPS product, mainly with regard to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance

  1. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R.C.; Wieczorek, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    A simple numerical model, based on the physical analogy of a leaky barrel, can simulate significant features of the interaction between rainfall and shallow-hillslope pore pressures. The leaky-barrel-model threshold is consistent with, but slightly higher than, an earlier, purely empirical, threshold. The number of debris flows triggered by a storm can be related to the time and amount by which the leaky-barrel-model response exceeded the threshold during the storm. -from Authors

  2. Development of extreme rainfall PRA methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology for extreme rainfall with focusing on decay heat removal system of a sodium-cooled fast reactor. For the extreme rainfall, annual excess probability depending on the hazard intensity was statistically estimated based on meteorological data. To identify core damage sequence, event trees were developed by assuming scenarios that structures, systems and components (SSCs) important to safety are flooded with rainwater coming into the buildings through gaps in the doors and the SSCs fail when the level of rainwater on the ground or on the roof of the building becomes higher than thresholds of doors on first floor or on the roof during the rainfall. To estimate the failure probability of the SSCs, the level of water rise was estimated by comparing the difference between precipitation and drainage capacity. By combining annual excess probability and the failure probability of SSCs, the event trees led to quantification of core damage frequency, and therefore the PRA methodology for rainfall was developed. (author)

  3. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  4. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

    2018-01-01

    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  5. Validation and correction of rainfall data from the WegenerNet high density network in southeast Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    O, Sungmin; Foelsche, U.; Kirchengast, G.; Fuchsberger, J.

    2018-01-01

    Eight years of daily rainfall data from WegenerNet were analyzed by comparison with data from Austrian national weather stations. WegenerNet includes 153 ground level weather stations in an area of about 15 km × 20 km in the Feldbach region in southeast Austria. Rainfall has been measured by tipping bucket gauges at 150 stations of the network since the beginning of 2007. Since rain gauge measurements are considered close to true rainfall, there are increasing needs for WegenerNet data for the validation of rainfall data products such as remote sensing based estimates or model outputs. Serving these needs, this paper aims at providing a clearer interpretation on WegenerNet rainfall data for users in hydro-meteorological communities. Five clusters - a cluster consists of one national weather station and its four closest WegenerNet stations - allowed us close comparison of datasets between the stations. Linear regression analysis and error estimation with statistical indices were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the WegenerNet daily rainfall data. It was found that rainfall data between the stations show good linear relationships with an average correlation coefficient (r) of 0.97 , while WegenerNet sensors tend to underestimate rainfall according to the regression slope (0.87). For the five clusters investigated, the bias and relative bias were - 0.97 mm d-1 and - 11.5 % on average (except data from new sensors). The average of bias and relative bias, however, could be reduced by about 80 % through a simple linear regression-slope correction, with the assumption that the underestimation in WegenerNet data was caused by systematic errors. The results from the study have been employed to improve WegenerNet data for user applications so that a new version of the data (v5) is now available at the WegenerNet data portal (www.wegenernet.org).

  6. Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

    2011-01-01

    A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

  7. Effect of rainfall on cropping pattern in mid Himalayan region ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis of effect of rainfall during the last 20 years is needed to evaluate cropping pattern in the rain-fed region. In this study, trends in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall of district of Himachal Pradesh in India over the past 20 years were examined. The annual rainfall varies from 863.3 to 1470.0 mm. During the ...

  8. Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

  9. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-09

    Feb 9, 2009 ... the lowest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The highest 24-h ... With regard to seasonal rainfall, the 1995/96 summer rainfall season had ..... The Gauteng Province is approximately 16 500 km2 in size. When the ...

  10. RAINFALL AGGRESSIVENESS EVALUATION IN REGHIN HILLS USING FOURNIER INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. SZILAGYI

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Aggressiveness erosive force of rainfall is the express of kinetic energy and potential energy of rain water runoff on slopes. In the absence of a database for the analysis of parameters that define the torrencial rainfall, the rainfall erosivity factor was calculated by Fournier Index, Modified Fournier Index based on the monthly and annual precipitation.

  11. Rainfall runoff and erosion in Napa Valley vineyards: effects of slope, cover and surface roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battany, M. C.; Grismer, M. E.

    2000-05-01

    The effects of slope, cover and surface roughness on rainfall runoff, infiltration and erosion were determined at two sites on a hillside vineyard in Napa County, California, using a portable rainfall simulator. Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out at two sites, with five replications of three slope treatments (5%, 10% and 15%) in a randomized block design at each site (0%bsol;64 m2 plots). Prior to initiation of the rainfall simulations, detailed assessments, not considered in previous vineyard studies, of soil slope, cover and surface roughness were conducted. Significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) between the physical characteristics of slope, cover and surface roughness, with total infiltration, runoff, sediment discharge and average sediment concentration were obtained. The extent of soil cracking, a physical characteristic not directly measured, also affected analysis of the rainfall-runoff-erosion process. Average cumulative runoff and cumulative sediment discharge from site A was 87% and 242% greater, respectively, than at site B. This difference was linked to the greater cover, extent of soil cracking and bulk density at site B than at site A. The extent of soil cover was the dominant factor limiting soil loss when soil cracking was not present. Field slopes within the range of 4-16%, although a statistically significant factor affecting soil losses, had only a minor impact on the amount of soil loss. The Horton infiltration equation fit field data better than the modified Philip's equation. Owing to the variability in the treatment parameters affecting the rainfall-runoff-erosion process, use of ANOVA methods were found to be inappropriate; multiple-factor regression analysis was more useful for identifying significant parameters. Overall, we obtained similar values for soil erosion parameters as those obtained from vineyard erosion studies in Europe. In addition, it appears that results from the small plot studies may be

  12. Runoff generation in a Mediterranean semi-arid landscape: Thresholds, scale, rainfall and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Fabian; Schmidt, Sebastian; Sauter, Martin; Lange, Jens

    2016-04-01

    Surface runoff acts as an integrated response of catchment characteristics and hydrological processes. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, a lack of runoff data has hindered a better understanding of runoff generation processes on the catchment scale, despite the importance of surface runoff as a water resource or flood hazard. Our main aim was to identify and explain differences in catchment runoff reactions across a variety of scales. Over a period of five years, we observed runoff in ephemeral streams of seven watersheds with sizes between 3 and 129 km2. Landuse and surface cover types (share of vegetation, bare soil and rock outcrops) were derived from aerial images by objective classification techniques. Using data from a dense rainfall network we analysed the effects of scale, catchment properties and aridity on runoff generation. Thereby we extracted rainfall and corresponding runoff events from our time-series to calculate event based rainfall characteristics and catchment runoff coefficients. Soil moisture observations provided additional information on antecedent moisture conditions, infiltration characteristics and the evolution of saturated areas. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that the proportion of Hortonian overland flow increases with aridity, we found that in our area the largest share (> 95 %) of runoff is generated by saturation excess overland flow in response to long lasting, rainfall events of high amount. This was supported by a strong correlation between event runoff and precipitation totals. Similar rainfall thresholds (50 mm) for runoff generation were observed in all investigated catchments. No scale effects on runoff coefficients were found; instead we identified up to three-fold runoff coefficients in catchments with larger extension of arid areas, higher percentage of rock outcrops and urbanization. Comparing two headwater catchments with noticeable differences in extent of olive orchards, no difference in runoff generation was

  13. High Severity Wildfire Effect On Rainfall Infiltration And Runoff: A Cellular Automata Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.

    2017-12-01

    A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.

  14. Characteristics of PAHs in farmland soil and rainfall runoff in Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Rongguang; Xu, Mengmeng; Liu, Aifeng; Tian, Yong; Zhao, Zongshan

    2017-10-14

    Rainfall runoff can remove certain amounts of pollutants from contaminated farmland soil and result in a decline in water quality. However, the leaching behaviors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with rainfall have been rarely reported due to wide variations in the soil compositions, rainfall conditions, and sources of soil PAHs in complex farmland ecosystems. In this paper, the levels, spatial distributions, and composition profiles of PAHs in 30 farmland soil samples and 49 rainfall-runoff samples from the Tianjin region in 2012 were studied to investigate their leaching behaviors caused by rainfall runoff. The contents of the Σ 16 PAHs ranged from 58.53 to 3137.90 μg/kg in the soil and 146.58 to 3636.59 μg/L in the runoff. In total, most of the soil sampling sites (23 of 30) were contaminated, and biomass and petroleum combustion were proposed as the main sources of the soil PAHs. Both the spatial distributions of the soil and the runoff PAHs show a decreasing trend moving away from the downtown, which suggested that the leaching behaviors of PAHs in a larger region during rainfall may be mainly affected by the compounds themselves. In addition, 4- and 5-ring PAHs are the dominant components in farmland soil and 3- and 4-ring PAHs dominate the runoff. Comparisons of the PAH pairs and enrichment ratios showed that acenaphthylene, acenaphthene, benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, and fluoranthene were more easily transferred into water systems from soil than benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and indeno[123-cd]pyrene, which indicated that PAHs with low molecular weight are preferentially dissolved due to their higher solubility compared to those with high molecular weight.

  15. Rainfall during parental care reduces reproductive and survival components of fitness in a passerine bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öberg, Meit; Arlt, Debora; Pärt, Tomas; Laugen, Ane T; Eggers, Sönke; Low, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer-term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long-term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer-term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.

  16. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF EROSIVITY FACTOR FOR CAMERON HIGHLAND, PAHANG, MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Taofeeq Sholagberu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff is the active agent of soil erosion which often resulted in land degradation and water quality deterioration. Its aggressiveness to induce erosion is usually termed as rainfall erosivity index or factor (R. R-factor is one of the factors to be parameterized in the evaluation of soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its reversed versions (USLE/RUSLE. The computation of accurate R-factor for a particular watershed requires high temporal resolution rainfall (pluviograph data with less than 30-minutes intensities for at least 20 yrs, which is available only in a few regions of the world. As a result, various simplified models have been proposed by researchers to evaluate R-factor using readily available daily, monthly or annual precipitation data. This study is thus aimed at estimating R-factor and to establish an approximate relationship between R-factor and rainfall for subsequent usage in the estimation of soil loss in Cameron highlands watershed. The results of the analysis showed that the least and peak (critical R-factors occurred in the months of January and April with 660.82 and 2399.18 MJ mm ha-1 h-1year-1 respectively. Also, it was observed that erosivity power starts to increase from the month of January through April before started falling in the month of July. The monthly and annual peaks (critical periods may be attributed to increased rainfall amount due to climate change which in turn resulted to increased aggressiveness of rains to cause erosion in the study area. The correlation coefficient of 0.985 showed that there was a strong relationship rainfall and R-factor.

  17. Performance of CMORPH, TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain, mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Yawar; Satgé, Frédéric; Hussain, Muhammad Babar; Martinez-Carvajal, Hernan; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Cárdenas-Soto, Martin; Roig, Henrique Llacer; Akhter, Gulraiz

    2018-02-01

    The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.

  18. Communication grounding facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Gye Seong

    1998-06-01

    It is about communication grounding facility, which is made up twelve chapters. It includes general grounding with purpose, materials thermal insulating material, construction of grounding, super strength grounding method, grounding facility with grounding way and building of insulating, switched grounding with No. 1A and LCR, grounding facility of transmission line, wireless facility grounding, grounding facility in wireless base station, grounding of power facility, grounding low-tenton interior power wire, communication facility of railroad, install of arrester in apartment and house, install of arrester on introduction and earth conductivity and measurement with introduction and grounding resistance.

  19. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  20. A numerical investigation of vapor intrusion--the dynamic response of contaminant vapors to rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Rui; Pennell, Kelly G; Suuberg, Eric M

    2012-10-15

    The U.S. government and various agencies have published guidelines for field investigation of vapor intrusion, most of which suggest soil gas sampling as an integral part of the investigation. Contaminant soil gas data are often relatively more stable than indoor air vapor concentration measurements, but meteorological conditions might influence soil gas values. Although a few field and numerical studies have considered some temporal effects on soil gas vapor transport, a full explanation of the contaminant vapor concentration response to rainfall events is not available. This manuscript seeks to demonstrate the effects on soil vapor transport during and after different rainfall events, by applying a coupled numerical model of fluid flow and vapor transport. Both a single rainfall event and seasonal rainfall events were modeled. For the single rainfall event models, the vapor response process could be divided into three steps: namely, infiltration, water redistribution, and establishment of a water lens atop the groundwater source. In the infiltration step, rainfall intensity was found to determine the speed of the wetting front and wash-out effect on the vapor. The passage of the wetting front led to an increase of the vapor concentration in both the infiltration and water redistribution steps and this effect is noted at soil probes located 1m below the ground surface. When the mixing of groundwater with infiltrated water was not allowed, a clean water lens accumulated above the groundwater source and led to a capping effect which can reduce diffusion rates of contaminant from the source. Seasonal rainfall with short time intervals involved superposition of the individual rainfall events. This modeling results indicated that for relatively deeper soil that the infiltration wetting front could not flood, the effects were damped out in less than a month after rain; while in the long term (years), possible formation of a water lens played a larger role in determining

  1. Soil organic carbon loss and selective transportation under field simulated rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

    2014-01-01

    The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future.

  2. Forecasting and Analysis of Monthly Rainfalls in Ardabil Province by Arima, Autoregrressive, and Winters Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Salahi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Rainfall has the highest variability at time and place scale. Rainfall fluctuation in different geographical areas reveals the necessity of investigating this climate element and suitable models to forecast the rate of precipitation for regional planning. Ardabil province has always faced rainfall fluctuations and shortage of water supply. Precipitation is one of the most important features of the environment. The amount of precipitation over time and in different places is subject to large fluctuations which may be periodical. Studies show that, due to the certain complexities of rainfall, the models which used to predict future values will also need greater accuracy and less error. Among the forecasting models, Arima has more applications and it has replaced with other models. Materials and Methods: In this research, through order 2 Autoregrressive, Winters, and Arima models, monthly rainfalls of Ardabil synoptic station (representing Ardabil province for a 31-year period (1977-2007 were investigated. To assess the presence or absence of significant changes in mean precipitation of Ardabil synoptic station, rainfall of this station was divided into two periods: 1977-1993 and 1994-2010. T-test was used to statistically examine the difference between the two periods. After adjusting the data, descriptive statistics were applied. In order to model the total monthly precipitation of Ardabil synoptic station, Winters, Autoregressive, and Arima models were used. Among different models, the best options were chosen to predict the time series including the mean absolute deviation (MAD, the mean squared errors (MSE, root mean square errors (RMSE and mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE. In order to select the best model among the available options under investigation, the predicted value of the deviation of the actual value was utilized for the months of 2006-2010. Results and Discussion: Statistical characteristics of the total monthly

  3. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A

    2017-01-01

    to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...... and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part...... selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency...

  4. Bivariate copula in fitting rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Kong Ching; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusof, Fadhilah; Mean, Foo Hui

    2014-07-01

    The usage of copula to determine the joint distribution between two variables is widely used in various areas. The joint distribution of rainfall characteristic obtained using the copula model is more ideal than the standard bivariate modelling where copula is belief to have overcome some limitation. Six copula models will be applied to obtain the most suitable bivariate distribution between two rain gauge stations. The copula models are Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Galambos, Gumbel-Hoogaurd (GH) and Plackett. The rainfall data used in the study is selected from rain gauge stations which are located in the southern part of Peninsular Malaysia, during the period from 1980 to 2011. The goodness-of-fit test in this study is based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

  5. Radar rainfall estimation in a hilly environment and implications for runoff modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2010-05-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about the spatial stormfield characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed taking into account attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data were implemented, because that does not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar. Largest quality improvements in the radar data are obtained by ground clutter removal. The influence of VPR correction and advection depends on the precipitation system observed. Overall, the radar shows an underestimation as compared to the rain gauges, which becomes smaller after averaging at the scale of the medium-sized Ourthe catchment. Remaining differences between both devices can mainly be attributed to an improper choice of the Z-R relationship. Conceptual rainfall-runoff simulations show similar results using either catchment average radar or rain gauge data, although the largest discharge peak observed, is seriously underestimated when applying radar data. Overall, for hydrological applications corrected weather radar information in a hilly environment can be used up to 70 km during a winter half-year.

  6. Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

  7. Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

  8. 46 CFR 308.403 - Insured amounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... total amount of war risk insurance obtainable from companies authorized to do an insurance business in a... MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Builder's Risk Insurance § 308.403 Insured amounts. (a) Prelaunching period. The amount insured during...

  9. 13 CFR 400.202 - Loan amount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Loan amount. 400.202 Section 400.202 Business Credit and Assistance EMERGENCY STEEL GUARANTEE LOAN BOARD EMERGENCY STEEL GUARANTEE LOAN PROGRAM Steel Guarantee Loans § 400.202 Loan amount. (a) The aggregate amount of loan principal guaranteed...

  10. 13 CFR 500.202 - Loan amount.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Loan amount. 500.202 Section 500.202 Business Credit and Assistance EMERGENCY OIL AND GAS GUARANTEED LOAN BOARD EMERGENCY OIL AND GAS GUARANTEED LOAN PROGRAM Oil and Gas Guaranteed Loans § 500.202 Loan amount. The aggregate amount of loan...

  11. 45 CFR 32.8 - Amounts withheld.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...) of this section, or (ii) An amount equal to 25% of the debtor's disposable pay less the amount(s... first pay day after the employer receives the order. However, if the first pay day is within 10 days after receipt of the order, the employer may begin deductions on the second pay day. (k) An employer may...

  12. 31 CFR 235.5 - Reclamation amounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reclamation amounts. 235.5 Section 235.5 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE... ON DESIGNATED DEPOSITARIES § 235.5 Reclamation amounts. Amounts received by way of reclamation on...

  13. Relating tree growth to rainfall in Bolivian rain forests: a test for six species using tree ring analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, Roel J W; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2005-11-01

    Many tropical regions show one distinct dry season. Often, this seasonality induces cambial dormancy of trees, particularly if these belong to deciduous species. This will often lead to the formation of annual rings. The aim of this study was to determine whether tree species in the Bolivian Amazon region form annual rings and to study the influence of the total amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall on diameter growth. Ring widths were measured on stem discs of a total of 154 trees belonging to six rain forest species. By correlating ring width and monthly rainfall data we proved the annual character of the tree rings for four of our study species. For two other species the annual character was proved by counting rings on trees of known age and by radiocarbon dating. The results of the climate-growth analysis show a positive relationship between tree growth and rainfall in certain periods of the year, indicating that rainfall plays a major role in tree growth. Three species showed a strong relationship with rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, while one species is most sensitive to the rainfall at the end of the previous growing season. These results clearly demonstrate that tree ring analysis can be successfully applied in the tropics and that it is a promising method for various research disciplines.

  14. The Impact of Typhoon Danas (2013 on the Torrential Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Fitow (2013 in East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiong Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available When typhoon Danas (2013 was located at northeast of Taiwan during 6–8 October 2013, a torrential rainfall brought by typhoon Fitow (2013 occurred over the east of China. Observations show that the rainband of Fitow, which may be impacted by Danas, caused the rainfall over north of Zhejiang. The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast (ARW-WRF model was used to investigate the possible effects of typhoon Danas (2013 on this rainfall event. Results show that the model captured reasonably well the spatial distribution and evolution of the rainband of Fitow. The results of a sensitivity experiment removing Danas vortex, which is conducted to determine its impact on the extreme rainfall, show that extra moist associated with Danas plays an important role in the maintenance and enhancement of the north rainband of Fitow, which resulted in torrential rainfall over the north of Zhejiang. This study may explain the unusual amount of rainfall over the north of Zhejiang province caused by interaction between the rainband of typhoon Fitow and extra moisture brought by typhoon Danas.

  15. Hydrogeologic setting, water budget, and preliminary analysis of ground-water exchange at Lake Starr, a seepage lake in Polk County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swancar, Amy; Lee, T.M.; O'Hare, T. M.

    2000-01-01

    of wet and dry seasons, and provided evidence for ground-water inflow generated from the upper basin. Annual water budgets showed how differences in timing of rainfall and pumping stresses affected lake stage and lake ground-water interactions. Lake evaporation measurements made during the study suggest that, on average, annual lake evaporation exceeds annual precipitation in the basin. Rainfall was close to the long-term average of 51.99 inches per year for the 2 years of the study (50.68 and 54.04 inches, respectively). Lake evaporation was 57.08 and 55.88 inches per year for the same 2 years, making net precipitation (rainfall minus evaporation) negative during both years. If net precipitation to seepage lakes in this area is negative over the long-term, then the ability to generate net ground-water inflow from the surrounding basin plays an important role in sustaining lake levels. Evaporation exceeded rainfall by a similar amount for both years of the study, but net ground-water flow differed substantially between the 2 years. The basin contributed net ground-water inflow to the lake in both years, however, net ground-water inflow was not sufficient to make up for the negative net precipitation during the first year, and the lake fell 4.9 inches. During the second year, net ground-water inflow exceeded the difference between evaporation and rainfall and the lake rose by 12.7 inches. The additional net ground-water inflow in the second year was due to both an increase in the amount of gross ground-water inflow and a decrease in lake leakage (ground-water outflow). Ground-water inflow was greater during the second year because more rain fell during the winter, when evaporative losses were low, resulting in greater ground-water recharge. However, decreased lake leakage during this year was probably at least as important as increased ground-water inflow in explaining the difference in net ground-water flow to the lake between the 2 years. Estimates of lake leakage

  16. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  17. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svoboda Vojtěch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

  18. Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

  19. 'Grounded' Politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Garbi

    2012-01-01

    play within one particular neighbourhood: Nørrebro in the Danish capital, Copenhagen. The article introduces the concept of grounded politics to analyse how groups of Muslim immigrants in Nørrebro use the space, relationships and history of the neighbourhood for identity political statements....... The article further describes how national political debates over the Muslim presence in Denmark affect identity political manifestations within Nørrebro. By using Duncan Bell’s concept of mythscape (Bell, 2003), the article shows how some political actors idealize Nørrebro’s past to contest the present...... ethnic and religious diversity of the neighbourhood and, further, to frame what they see as the deterioration of genuine Danish identity....

  20. An Establishment of Rainfall-induced Soil Erosion Index for the Slope Land in Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Shu, Chia-Chun; Chen, Ying-Hui

    2014-05-01

    With more and more concentrated extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change, in Taiwan, mass cover soil erosion occurred frequently and led to sediment related disasters in high intensity precipiton region during typhoons or torrential rain storms. These disasters cause a severely lost to the property, public construction and even the casualty of the resident in the affected areas. Therefore, we collected soil losses by using field investigation data from the upstream of watershed where near speific rivers to explore the soil erosion caused by heavy rainfall under different natural environment. Soil losses induced by rainfall and runoff were obtained from the long-term soil depth measurement of erosion plots, which were established in the field, used to estimate the total volume of soil erosion. Furthermore, the soil erosion index was obtained by referring to natural environment of erosion test plots and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). All data collected from field were used to compare with the one obtained from laboratory test recommended by the Technical Regulation for Soil and Water Conservation in Taiwan. With MATLAB as a modeling platform, evaluation model for soil erodibility factors was obtained by golden section search method, considering factors contributing to the soil erosion; such as degree of slope, soil texture, slope aspect, the distance far away from water system, topography elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution map of soil erosion index was developed by this project and used to estimate the rainfall-induced soil losses from erosion plots have been established in the study area since 2008. All results indicated that soil erodibility increases with accumulated rainfall amount regardless of soil characteristics measured in the field. Under the same accumulated rainfall amount, the volume of soil erosion also increases with the degree of slope and soil permeability, but decreases with the

  1. Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

  2. Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

  3. Strategy for introduction of rainwater management facility considering rainfall event applied on new apartment complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIM, H.; Lee, D. K.; Yoo, S.

    2014-12-01

    As regional torrential rains become frequent due to climate change, urban flooding happens very often. That is why it is necessary to prepare for integrated measures against a wide range of rainfall. This study proposes introduction of effective rainwater management facilities to maximize the rainwater runoff reductions and recover natural water circulation for unpredictable extreme rainfall in apartment complex scale. The study site is new apartment complex in Hanam located in east of Seoul, Korea. It has an area of 7.28ha and is analysed using the EPA-SWMM and STORM model. First, it is analyzed that green infrastructure(GI) had efficiency of flood reduction at the various rainfall events and soil characteristics, and then the most effective value of variables are derived. In case of rainfall event, Last 10 years data of 15 minutes were used for analysis. A comparison between A(686mm rainfall during 22days) and B(661mm/4days) knew that soil infiltration of A is 17.08% and B is 5.48% of the rainfall. Reduction of runoff after introduction of the GI of A is 24.76% and B is 6.56%. These results mean that GI is effective to small rainfall intensity, and artificial rainwater retarding reservoir is needed at extreme rainfall. Second, set of target year is conducted for the recovery of hydrological cycle at the predevelopment. And an amount of infiltration, evaporation, surface runoff of the target year and now is analysed on the basis of land coverage, and an arrangement of LID facilities. Third, rainwater management scenarios are established and simulated by the SWMM-LID. Rainwater management facilities include GI(green roof, porous pavement, vegetative swale, ecological pond, and raingarden), and artificial rainwater. Design scenarios are categorized five type: 1)no GI, 2)conventional GI design(current design), 3)intensive GI design, 4)GI design+rainwater retarding reservoir 5)maximized rainwater retarding reservoir. Intensive GI design is to have attribute value to

  4. The Impact of a Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Liming; Surratt, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect to percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, shallow cumulus cloudiness, deep convective cloudiness, and rainfall occurrence all are larger over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions than over areas of dense jungle. This difference is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region s varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift in the onset of convection toward afternoon hours in the deforested and towards the morning hours in the savanna regions when compared to the neighboring forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of monthly estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that in only in August was there a pattern of higher monthly rainfall amounts over the deforested region.

  5. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Patra

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  6. Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

    2014-02-01

    The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

  7. Comparison study between traditional and finite element methods for slopes under heavy rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rabie

    2014-08-01

    Moreover, slope stability concerning rainfall and infiltration is analyzed. Specially, two kinds of infiltrations (saturated and unsaturated are considered. Many slopes become saturated during periods of intense rainfall or snowmelt, with the water table rising to the ground surface, and water flowing essentially parallel to the direction of the “slope” and “Influence” of the change in shear strength, density, pore-water pressure and seepage force in soil slices on the slope stability is explained. Finally, it is found that classical limit equilibrium methods are highly conservative compared to the finite element approach. For assessment the factor of safety for slope using the later technique, no assumption needs to be made in advance about the shape or location of the failure surface, slice side forces and their directions. This document outlines the capabilities of the finite element method in the analysis of slope stability problems.

  8. Design and Performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Super NiCd Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Anisa J.; Rao, Gopalakrishna M.; Jallice, Doris E.; Moran Vickie E.

    1999-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. The observatory is designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall and the associated release of energy that helps to power the global atmospheric circulation shaping both weather and climate around the globe. The spacecraft was launched from Japan on November 27,1997 via the NASDA H-2 launch vehicle. The TRMM Power Subsystem is a Peak Power Tracking system that can support the maximum TRMM load of 815 watts at the end of its three year life. The Power Subsystem consists of two 50 Ampere Hour Super NiCd batteries, Gallium Arsenide Solar Array and the Power System Electronics. This paper describes the TRMM Power Subsystem, battery design, cell and battery ground test performance, and in-orbit battery operations and performance.

  9. Processes influencing rainfall features in the Amazonian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerken, T.; Chamecki, M.; Fuentes, J. D.; Katul, G. G.; Fitzjarrald, D. R.; Manzi, A. O.; Nascimento dos Santos, R. M.; von Randow, C.; Stoy, P. C.; Tota, J.; Trowbridge, A.; Schumacher, C.; Machado, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Amazon is globally unique as it experiences the deepest atmospheric convection with important teleconnections to other parts of the Earth's climate system. In the Amazon Basin a large fraction of the local evapotranspiration is recycled through the formation of deep convective precipitating storms. Deep convection occurs due to moist thermodynamic conditions associated with elevated amounts of convective available potential energy. Aerosols invigorate the formation of convective storms in the Amazon via their unique concentrations, physical size, and chemical composition to activate into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but important aspects of aerosol/precipitation feedbacks remain unresolved. During the wet season, low atmospheric aerosol concentrations prevail in the pristine tropical air masses. These conditions have led to the Green Ocean hypothesis, which compares the clean tropical air to maritime air-masses and emphasizes biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks, to explain the features of the convective-type rainfall events in the Amazon. Field studies have been designed to investigate these relationships and the development of mesoscale convective systems through the Green Ocean Amazon project and the GOAmazon Boundary Layer Experiment. From March to October 2014 a field experiment was conducted at the Cuieiras Biological Reserve (2°51' S, 54°58' W), 80 km north of the city of Manaus, Brazil. This investigation spans the biological, chemical, and physical conditions influencing emissions and reactions of precursors (biogenic and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds, VOCs), formation of aerosols and CCNs and transport out of the ABL, and their role in cloud formation and precipitation triggers. In this presentation we will show results on the magnitude turbulent fluxes of latent and sensible heat, CCN concentrations, and rain droplet size distribution for both the wet and dry season. Such influencing factors on precipitation, will be contrasted with the

  10. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Vern Suomi 's Vital Role

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Joanne; Kummerow, Christian

    1999-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission was a new concept of measuring rainfall over the global tropics using a combination of instruments, including the first weather radar to be flown in space. An important objective of the mission was to obtain profiles of latent heat in order to initialize large-scale circulation models and to understand the relationship between short-term climate changes in relation to rainfall variability. The idea originated in the early 1980's from scientists at the Goddard Space Flight Center/NASA who had been involved with attempts to measure rain with a passive microwave instrument on Nimbus 5 and had compared its results with rain falling in the area covered by the GATE1 radar ships. Using an imaginary satellite flying over the GATE ships, scientists showed that a satellite with an inclined orbit of 30-35 degrees could obtain monthly rainfalls with a sampling error of less than 10 percent over 5 degree by 5 degree areas. The Japanese proposed that they could build a nadir-scanning rain radar for the satellite. Vern Suomi was excited by this mission from the outset, since he recognized the great importance of adequate rainfall measurements over the tropical oceans. He was a charter member of the Science Steering Team and prepared a large part of the Report. While the mission attracted strong support in the science community, it was opposed by some of the high-level NASA management who feared its competition for funds with some much larger Earth Science satellites. Vern was able to overcome this opposition and to generate Congressional support, so that the Project finally got underway on both sides of the Pacific in 1991. The paper will discuss the design of the satellite, its data system and ground validation program. TP.NM was successfully launched in late 1997. Early results will be described. 1 GATE stands for GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment and GARP stands for Global Atmospheric Research Program.

  11. Experiences of citizen-based reporting of rainfall events using lab-generated videos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon, Juan

    2016-04-01

    Hydrologic studies rely on the availability of good-quality precipitation estimates. However, in remote areas of the world and particularly in developing countries, ground-based measurement networks are either sparse or nonexistent. This creates difficulties in the estimation of precipitation, which limits the development of hydrologic forecasting and early warning systems for these regions. The EC-FP7 WeSenseIt project aims at exploring the involvement of citizens in the observation of the water cycle with innovative sensor technologies, including mobile telephony. In particular, the project explores the use of a smartphone applications to facilitate the reporting water-related situations. Apart from the challenge of using such information for scientific purposes, the citizen engagement is one of the most important issues to address. To this end effortless methods for reporting need to be developed in order to involve as many people as possible in these experiments. A potential solution to overcome these drawbacks, consisting on lab-controlled rainfall videos have been produced to help mapping the extent and distribution of rainfall fields with minimum effort [1]. In addition, the quality of the collected rainfall information has also been studied [2] by means of different experiments with students. The present research shows the latest results of the application of this method and evaluates the experiences in some cases. [1] Alfonso, L., J. Chacón, and G. Peña-Castellanos (2015), Allowing Citizens to Effortlessly Become Rainfall Sensors, in 36th IAHR World Congress edited, The Hague, the Netherlands [2] Cortes-Arevalo, J., J. Chacón, L. Alfonso, and T. Bogaard (2015), Evaluating data quality collected by using a video rating scale to estimate and report rainfall intensity, in 36th IAHR World Congress edited, The Hague, the Netherlands

  12. Multiple data fusion for rainfall estimation using a NARX-based recurrent neural network – the development of the REIINN model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M R C O; Gonzalez, R M; Castro, P P M

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall, one of the important elements of the hydrologic cycle, is also the most difficult to model. Thus, accurate rainfall estimation is necessary especially in localized catchment areas where variability of rainfall is extremely high. Moreover, early warning of severe rainfall through timely and accurate estimation and forecasting could help prevent disasters from flooding. This paper presents the development of two rainfall estimation models that utilize a NARX-based neural network architecture namely: REIINN 1 and REIINN 2. These REIINN models, or Rainfall Estimation by Information Integration using Neural Networks, were trained using MTSAT cloud-top temperature (CTT) images and rainfall rates from the combined rain gauge and TMPA 3B40RT datasets. Model performance was assessed using two metrics – root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R). REIINN 1 yielded an RMSE of 8.1423 mm/3h and an overall R of 0.74652 while REIINN 2 yielded an RMSE of 5.2303 and an overall R of 0.90373. The results, especially that of REIINN 2, are very promising for satellite-based rainfall estimation in a catchment scale. It is believed that model performance and accuracy will greatly improve with a denser and more spatially distributed in-situ rainfall measurements to calibrate the model with. The models proved the viability of using remote sensing images, with their good spatial coverage, near real time availability, and relatively inexpensive to acquire, as an alternative source for rainfall estimation to complement existing ground-based measurements

  13. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  14. A small single-nozzle rainfall simulator to measure erosion response on different burn severities in southern British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covert, Ashley; Jordan, Peter

    2010-05-01

    To study the effects of wildfire burn severity on runoff generation and soil erosion from high intensity rainfall, we constructed an effective yet simple rainfall simulator that was inexpensive, portable and easily operated by two people on steep, forested slopes in southern British Columbia, Canada. The entire apparatus, including simulator, pumps, hoses, collapsible water bladders and sample bottles, was designed to fit into a single full-sized pick-up truck. The three-legged simulator extended to approximately 3.3 metres above ground on steep slopes and used a single Spraying Systems 1/2HH-30WSQ nozzle which can easily be interchanged for other sized nozzles. Rainfall characteristics were measured using a digital camera which took images of the raindrops against a grid. Median drop size and velocity 5 cm above ground were measured and found to be 3/4 of the size of natural rain drops of that diameter class, and fell 7% faster than terminal velocity. The simulator was used for experiments on runoff and erosion on sites burned in 2007 by two wildfires in southern British Columbia. Simulations were repeated one and two years after the fires. Rainfall was simulated at an average rate of 67 mm hr-1 over a 1 m2 plot for 20 minutes. This rainfall rate is similar to the 100 year return period rainfall intensity for this duration at a nearby weather station. Simulations were conducted on five replicate 1 m2 plots in each experimental unit including high burn severity, moderate burn severity, unburned, and unburned with forest floor removed. During the simulation a sample was collected for 30 seconds every minute, with two additional samples until runoff ceased, resulting in 22 samples per simulation. Runoff, overland flow coefficient, infiltration and sediment yield were compared between treatments. Additional simulations were conducted immediately after a 2009 wildfire to test different mulch treatments. Typical results showed that runoff on plots with high burn

  15. Runoff and leaching of metolachlor from Mississippi River alluvial soil during seasons of average and below-average rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwick, Lloyd M; Appelboom, Timothy W; Fouss, James L

    2009-02-25

    The movement of the herbicide metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] via runoff and leaching from 0.21 ha plots planted to corn on Mississippi River alluvial soil (Commerce silt loam) was measured for a 6-year period, 1995-2000. The first three years received normal rainfall (30 year average); the second three years experienced reduced rainfall. The 4-month periods prior to application plus the following 4 months after application were characterized by 1039 +/- 148 mm of rainfall for 1995-1997 and by 674 +/- 108 mm for 1998-2000. During the normal rainfall years 216 +/- 150 mm of runoff occurred during the study seasons (4 months following herbicide application), accompanied by 76.9 +/- 38.9 mm of leachate. For the low-rainfall years these amounts were 16.2 +/- 18.2 mm of runoff (92% less than the normal years) and 45.1 +/- 25.5 mm of leachate (41% less than the normal seasons). Runoff of metolachlor during the normal-rainfall seasons was 4.5-6.1% of application, whereas leaching was 0.10-0.18%. For the below-normal periods, these losses were 0.07-0.37% of application in runoff and 0.22-0.27% in leachate. When averages over the three normal and the three less-than-normal seasons were taken, a 35% reduction in rainfall was characterized by a 97% reduction in runoff loss and a 71% increase in leachate loss of metolachlor on a percent of application basis. The data indicate an increase in preferential flow in the leaching movement of metolachlor from the surface soil layer during the reduced rainfall periods. Even with increased preferential flow through the soil during the below-average rainfall seasons, leachate loss (percent of application) of the herbicide remained below 0.3%. Compared to the average rainfall seasons of 1995-1997, the below-normal seasons of 1998-2000 were characterized by a 79% reduction in total runoff and leachate flow and by a 93% reduction in corresponding metolachlor movement via these routes

  16. Vegetation Variability And Its Effect On Monsoon Rainfall Over South East Asia: Observational and Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chiu, L.; Kafatos, M.

    2005-12-01

    vegetation to crop land affects monsoon rainfall in two ways: 1) The presence of cropland increases the sensible heat release from ground, increasing the chances for development of forced convection; 2) Large scale irrigation associated with spring crop development creates a moister lower boundary layer thus inducing more moist instability and free convection in the succeeding season.

  17. Convective Cloud and Rainfall Processes Over the Maritime Continent: Simulation and Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianotti, Rebecca L.

    The Maritime Continent experiences strong moist convection, which produces significant rainfall and drives large fluxes of heat and moisture to the upper troposphere. Despite the importance of these processes to global circulations, current predictions of climate change over this region are still highly uncertain, largely due to inadequate representation of the diurnally-varying processes related to convection. In this work, a coupled numerical model of the land-atmosphere system (RegCM3-IBIS) is used to investigate how more physically-realistic representations of these processes can be incorporated into large-scale climate models. In particular, this work improves simulations of convective-radiative feedbacks and the role of cumulus clouds in mediating the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Three key contributions are made to the development of RegCM3-IBIS. Two pieces of work relate directly to the formation and dissipation of convective clouds: a new representation of convective cloud cover, and a new parameterization of convective rainfall production. These formulations only contain parameters that can be directly quantified from observational data, are independent of model user choices such as domain size or resolution, and explicitly account for subgrid variability in cloud water content and nonlinearities in rainfall production. The third key piece of work introduces a new method for representation of cloud formation within the boundary layer. A comprehensive evaluation of the improved model was undertaken using a range of satellite-derived and ground-based datasets, including a new dataset from Singapore's Changi airport that documents diurnal variation of the local boundary layer height. The performance of RegCM3-IBIS with the new formulations is greatly improved across all evaluation metrics, including cloud cover, cloud liquid water, radiative fluxes and rainfall, indicating consistent improvement in physical realism throughout the simulation. This work

  18. Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

    2009-12-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi

  19. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  20. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  1. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Wood

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  2. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2018-04-01

    This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

  3. Effects of sea surface temperature, cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall in equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Zhe; Li Xiao-Fan; Zhou Yu-Shu; Gao Shou-Ting

    2012-01-01

    The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall statistics are documented with grid data from the two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations. For a rain rate of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor convergence prevails. The rainfall amount decreases with the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C, the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST, or the exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds and radiative effects of water clouds, which are primarily associated with the decreases in water vapor convergence. However, the amount of rainfall increases with the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C, the exclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, and the exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds, which are primarily related to increases in water vapor convergence. For a rain rate of less than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor divergence prevails. Unlike rainfall statistics for rain rates of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C and the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds increase the rainfall amount, which corresponds to the suppression in water vapor divergence. The exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds decreases the amount of rainfall, which corresponds to the enhancement in water vapor divergence. The amount of rainfall is less sensitive to the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C and to the radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of the radiative effects of ice clouds. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  4. First results from comparison of rainfall estimations by GPM IMERG with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oo, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    The research level products of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG "Final" run datasets) were compared with rainfall measurements from the WegenerNet high density network as part of ground validation (GV) projects of GPM missions. The WegenerNet network comprises 151 ground level weather stations in an area of 15 km × 20 km in south-eastern Austria (Feldbach region, ˜46.93° N, ˜15.90° E) designed to serve as a long-term monitoring and validation facility for weather and climate research and applications. While the IMERG provides rainfall estimations every half hour at 0.1° resolution, the WegenerNet network measures rainfall every 5 minutes at around 2 km2 resolution and produces 200 m × 200 m gridded datasets. The study was conducted on the domain of the WegenerNet network; eight IMERG grids are overlapped with the network, two of which are entirely covered by the WegenerNet (40 and 39 stations in each grid). We investigated data from April to September of the years 2014 to 2015; the date of first two years after the launch of the GPM Core Observatory. Since the network has a flexibility to work with various spatial and temporal scales, the comparison could be conducted on average-points to pixel basis at both sub-daily and daily timescales. This presentation will summarize the first results of the comparison and future plans to explore the characteristics of errors in the IMERG datasets.

  5. Constraining continuous rainfall simulations for derived design flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Mehrotra, R.; Westra, S.

    2016-11-01

    Stochastic rainfall generation is important for a range of hydrologic and water resources applications. Stochastic rainfall can be generated using a number of models; however, preserving relevant attributes of the observed rainfall-including rainfall occurrence, variability and the magnitude of extremes-continues to be difficult. This paper develops an approach to constrain stochastically generated rainfall with an aim of preserving the intensity-durationfrequency (IFD) relationships of the observed data. Two main steps are involved. First, the generated annual maximum rainfall is corrected recursively by matching the generated intensity-frequency relationships to the target (observed) relationships. Second, the remaining (non-annual maximum) rainfall is rescaled such that the mass balance of the generated rain before and after scaling is maintained. The recursive correction is performed at selected storm durations to minimise the dependence between annual maximum values of higher and lower durations for the same year. This ensures that the resulting sequences remain true to the observed rainfall as well as represent the design extremes that may have been developed separately and are needed for compliance reasons. The method is tested on simulated 6 min rainfall series across five Australian stations with different climatic characteristics. The results suggest that the annual maximum and the IFD relationships are well reproduced after constraining the simulated rainfall. While our presentation focusses on the representation of design rainfall attributes (IFDs), the proposed approach can also be easily extended to constrain other attributes of the generated rainfall, providing an effective platform for post-processing of stochastic rainfall generators.

  6. Feasibility of High-Resolution Soil Erosion Measurements by Means of Rainfall Simulations and SfM Photogrammetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phoebe Hänsel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The silty soils of the intensively used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province, eastern Germany, are very prone to soil erosion, mainly caused by water erosion. Rainfall simulations, and also increasingly structure-from-motion (SfM photogrammetry, are used as methods in soil erosion research not only to assess soil erosion by water, but also to quantify soil loss. This study aims to validate SfM photogrammetry determined soil loss estimations with rainfall simulations measurements. Rainfall simulations were performed at three agricultural sites in central Saxony. Besides the measured data runoff and soil loss by sampling (in mm, terrestrial images were taken from the plots with digital cameras before and after the rainfall simulation. Subsequently, SfM photogrammetry was used to reconstruct soil surface changes due to soil erosion in terms of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs for the pre- and post-event (resolution 1 × 1 mm. By multi-temporal change detection, the digital elevation model of difference (DoD and an averaged soil loss (in mm is received, which was compared to the soil loss by sampling. Soil loss by DoD was higher than soil loss by sampling. The method of SfM photogrammetry-determined soil loss estimations also include a comparison of three different ground control point (GCP approaches, revealing that the most complex one delivers the most reliable soil loss by DoD. Additionally, soil bulk density changes and splash erosion beyond the plot were measured during the rainfall simulation experiments in order to separate these processes and associated surface changes from the soil loss by DoD. Furthermore, splash was negligibly small, whereas higher soil densities after the rainfall simulations indicated soil compaction. By means of calculated soil surface changes due to soil compaction, the soil loss by DoD achieved approximately the same value as the soil loss by rainfall simulation.

  7. A depleted ozone layer absorbs less UV-B, cooling the ozone layer, increasing the amount of UV-B observed to reach Earth, heating air by dissociating tropospheric and ground-level ozone, and heating oceans very efficiently by penetrating tens of meters into the mixed layer. UV-B is 48 times more energetic ("hotter") than IR absorbed by greenhouse gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    This new insight into the physics of radiation shows why changes in stratospheric ozone are observed to cause changes in global temperature. By 1970, manufactured CFC gases and ozone depletion began increasing. By 1993, increases in CFCs stopped as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. By 1995, increases in ozone depletion stopped. By 1998, increases in temperature stopped until 2014. Ozone is also depleted by halogen gases emitted from major basaltic lava flows, the largest of which, since 1783, occurred at Bardarbunga in Iceland in 2014, causing 2015 and 2016 to be the hottest years on record. Throughout Earth history, the largest basaltic lava flows were contemporaneous with periods of greatest warming and greatest levels of mass extinctions. Planck's empirical law shows that temperature of matter results from oscillation of all the bonds holding matter together. The higher the temperature, the higher the frequencies and amplitudes of oscillation. Thus, radiation from a nearby hotter body will make the absorbing body hotter than radiation from a cooler body. According to the Planck-Einstein relation, thermal energy (E) in matter and in radiation equals frequency of oscillation (ν) times the Planck constant (h), E=hν—the energy of a frictionless atomic oscillator. Since frequency is observed to be a very broad continuum extending from radio signals through visible light to gamma rays, thermal energy (E=hν) must also be a very broad continuum. Thermal flux cannot be represented properly by a single number of watts per square meter, as commonly assumed throughout the physical sciences, because all frequencies coexist and the number of watts increases with frequency. Thus, UV-B solar radiation is 48 times more energetic than IR terrestrial radiation absorbed by greenhouse gases and can make the absorbing body 48 times hotter. UV-B causes sunburn; no amount of IR can cause sunburn. Furthermore, in a basic experiment, I show that air containing more than 23 times

  8. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  9. Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

  10. Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2008-01-01

    Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

  11. Isotope hydrology of ground waters of the Kalahari, Gordonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verhagen, B.Th.

    1985-01-01

    Environmental isotope observations were conducted on ground waters from approximately 50 boreholes covering a substantial part of Gordonia. The quality of these waters ranges from fresh to saline. The observed isotope ratios cover a wide range of values, indicating varied hydrological conditions. The most important conclusions arrived at by this study are: 1. no important regional movement of ground water occurs at present; 2. there is widespread evidence of diffuse rainfall recharge; and 3. an important part of ground-water salinity is derived from the unsaturated zone, during such recharge

  12. Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

  13. 24 CFR 201.10 - Loan amounts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Loan amounts. 201.10 Section 201.10... MORTGAGE AND LOAN INSURANCE PROGRAMS UNDER NATIONAL HOUSING ACT AND OTHER AUTHORITIES TITLE I PROPERTY IMPROVEMENT AND MANUFACTURED HOME LOANS Loan and Note Provisions § 201.10 Loan amounts. (a) Property...

  14. Performance and efficiency of geotextile-supported erosion control measures during simulated rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obriejetan, Michael; Rauch, Hans Peter; Florineth, Florin

    2013-04-01

    Erosion control systems consisting of technical and biological components are widely accepted and proven to work well if installed properly with regard to site-specific parameters. A wide range of implementation measures for this specific protection purpose is existent and new, in particular technical solutions are constantly introduced into the market. Nevertheless, especially vegetation aspects of erosion control measures are frequently disregarded and should be considered enhanced against the backdrop of the development and realization of adaptation strategies in an altering environment due to climate change associated effects. Technical auxiliaries such as geotextiles typically used for slope protection (nettings, blankets, turf reinforcement mats etc.) address specific features and due to structural and material diversity, differing effects on sediment yield, surface runoff and vegetational development seem evident. Nevertheless there is a knowledge gap concerning the mutual interaction processes between technical and biological components respectively specific comparable data on erosion-reducing effects of technical-biological erosion protection systems are insufficient. In this context, an experimental arrangement was set up to study the correlated influences of geotextiles and vegetation and determine its (combined) effects on surface runoff and soil loss during simulated heavy rainfall events. Sowing vessels serve as testing facilities which are filled with top soil under application of various organic and synthetic geotextiles and by using a reliable drought resistant seed mixture. Regular vegetational monitoring as well as two rainfall simulation runs with four repetitions of each variant were conducted. Therefore a portable rainfall simulator with standardized rainfall intensity of 240 mm h-1 and three minute rainfall duration was used to stress these systems on different stages of plant development at an inclination of 30 degrees. First results show

  15. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  16. Comparison between Pludix and impact/optical disdrometers during rainfall measurement campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Clelia; Prodi, Franco; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2006-11-01

    The performances of two couples of disdrometers based on different measuring principles are compared: a classical Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer and a recently developed device, called the Pludix tested in Ferrara, Italy, and Pludix and the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) tested in Cabauw, The Netherlands. First, the measuring principles of the different instruments are presented and compared. Secondly, the performances of the two pairs of disdrometers are analysed by comparing their rain amounts with nearby tipping bucket rain gauges and the inferred drop size distributions. The most important rainfall integral parameters (e.g. rain rate and radar reflectivity) and drop size distribution parameters are also analysed and compared. The data set for Ferrara comprises 13 rainfall events, with a total of 20 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 4 mm h - 1 . The data set for Cabauw consists of 9 events, with 25-50 mm of rainfall and a maximum rain rate of 20-40 mm h - 1 . The Pludix tends to underestimate slightly the bulk rainfall variables in less intense events, whereas it tends to overestimate with respect to the other instruments in heavier events. The correspondence of the inferred drop size distributions with those measured by the other disdrometers is reasonable, particularly with the Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer. Considering that the Pludix is still in a calibration and testing phase, the reported results are encouraging. A new signal inversion algorithm, which will allow the detection of rain drops throughout the entire diameter interval between 0.3 and 7.0 mm, is under development.

  17. Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenshi Hibino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

  18. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Melissa McLean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  20. Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Hu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

  1. Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Terzo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

  2. Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

  3. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  4. Mathematical and physical modeling of rainfall in centrifuge

    OpenAIRE

    CAICEDO, Bernardo; THOREL, Luc; TRISTANCHO, Julian

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall simulation in centrifuge models is important for modelling soil-atmosphere interactions. However, the presence of Coriolis force, drag forces, evaporation and wind within the centrifuge may affect the distribution of rainfall over the model. As a result, development of appropriate centrifuge rain simulators requires a demanding process of experimental trial and error. This paper highlights the key factors involved in controlling rainfall in centrifuge simulations, develops a mathemat...

  5. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small areas...... resolutions and single gauge rainfall was fed to a MOUSE run-off model. The flow and total volume over the event is evaluated....

  6. Validity and extension of the SCS-CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall-excess rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

    2004-12-01

    A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS-CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall-excess rates. The extended SCS-CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall-excess rates are found to be in good agreement.

  7. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2013-04-01

    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  8. Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to

  9. Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

    2012-01-01

    Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2–0.3 Bq/L and 2–7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1–0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below

  10. Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2-0.3 Bq/L and 2-7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1-0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below the

  11. Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Yuang Huang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

  12. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  13. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

    2018-03-01

    Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  14. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  15. Beryllium-7 in Rainfall, River Sediment and Sewage Sludge - Beryllium-7 in rainwater, river sediment and sewage sludge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Helmut W.; Igbinosa, Aimuamwosa; Souti, Maria Evangelia [University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, D-28359 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    Introduction: The cosmogenic radioisotope {sup 7}Be is one of the major contributors to natural airborne radioactivity, with fairly constant concentrations of some mBq/m{sup 3} near the Earth's surface. The isotope is assumed to be bound to aerosols. It is deposited onto the Earth's surface mainly by wet deposition. In environmental surveillance it is detected regularly in air by aerosol sampling, and in topsoil and on plant leaves after rainfall. In previous studies of this laboratory it had also been detected regularly in freshwater sediments and in wastewater treatment primary sludge. River sediment samples from an estuary showed concentrations influenced by dilution with sea water. Thus it appeared interesting to investigate the usefulness of {sup 7}Be as tracer for rainfall contribution in environmental samples. Experimental: In order to investigate possible correlations and interrelations between {sup 7}Be activity in rainfall, sediment and primary sludge, a measurement campaign was planned and conducted covering a time span of 6 months. {sup 7}Be concentrations were determined in weekly samples of rainwater and primary sludge and in monthly samples of river sediment by high resolution gamma spectroscopy. Besides, rainfall amount and intensity were recorded and weekly primary sludge production volume data were obtained from the treatment plant operators. From these numbers, total atmospheric deposition per surface area could be calculated. Results and discussion: The data show a clear correlation between weekly rainfall amount and {sup 7}Be surface deposition. This is more than plausible as wet deposition is known to be the most effective deposition process. Although washout effectivity is assumed to decrease with rainfall intensity, no correlation could be seen in the data, probably due to averaging within the weekly sampling intervals. The time series of {sup 7}Be deposition with rain and its concentration in primary sludge exhibit very similar

  16. Chase the direct impact of rainfall into groundwater in Mt. Fuji from multiple analyses including microbial DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kenji; Sugiyama, Ayumi; Nagaosa, Kazuyo; Tsujimura, Maki

    2016-04-01

    A huge amount of groundwater is stored in subsurface environment of Mt. Fuji, the largest volcanic mountain in Japan. Based on the concept of piston flow transport of groundwater an apparent residence time was estimated to ca. 30 years by 36Cl/Cl ratio (Tosaki et al., 2011). However, this number represents an averaged value of the residence time of groundwater which had been mixed before it flushes out. We chased signatures of direct impact of rainfall into groundwater to elucidate the routes of groundwater, employing three different tracers; stable isotopic analysis (delta 18O), chemical analysis (concentration of silica) and microbial DNA analysis. Though chemical analysis of groundwater shows an averaged value of the examined water which was blended by various water with different sources and routes in subsurface environment, microbial DNA analysis may suggest the place where they originated, which may give information of the source and transport routes of the water examined. Throughout the in situ observation of four rainfall events showed that stable oxygen isotopic ratio of spring water and shallow groundwater obtained from 726m a.s.l. where the average recharge height of rainfall was between 1500 and 1800 m became higher than the values before a torrential rainfall, and the concentration of silica decreased after this event when rainfall exceeded 300 mm in precipitation of an event. In addition, the density of Prokaryotes in spring water apparently increased. Those changes did not appear when rainfall did not exceed 100 mm per event. Thus, findings shown above indicated a direct impact of rainfall into shallow groundwater, which appeared within a few weeks of torrential rainfall in the studied geological setting. In addition, increase in the density of Archaea observed at deep groundwater after the torrential rainfall suggested an enlargement of the strength of piston flow transport through the penetration of rainfall into deep groundwater. This finding was

  17. Radium migration of Morro do Ferro (Pocos de Caldas, MG) thorium deposit during baseflow regime (no rainfall)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campos, M.J.; Sachett, I.A.; Franca, E.P.; Lobao, N.; Trindade, H.

    1986-01-01

    The mechanisms of radium leaching and transport at the Morro do Ferro and to estimate the 228 Ra mobilization rate, under conditions of no rainfall (baseflow regime) are investigated. Radium was analyzed in solution and in suspended solids, in surface and ground waters at the Morro do Ferro general basin. Ra-226 was determined by the classical radon emanation method. Ra-228 was analyzed by radiometric method which is based on the radiometry of β-γ 228Ac concidence transitions. (Author) [pt

  18. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  19. Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2017-11-01

    Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

  20. Ground-Water Geochemistry of Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribble, Gordon W.

    1997-01-01

    Ground water on Kwajalein Island is an important source of drinking water, particularly during periods of low rainfall. Fresh ground water is found as a thin lens underlain by saltwater. The concentration of dissolved ions increases with depth below the water table and proximity to the shoreline as high-salinity seawater mixes with fresh ground water. The maximum depth of the freshwater lens is 37 ft. Chloride is assumed to be non-reactive under the range of geochemical conditions on the atoll. The concentration of chloride thus is used as a conservative constituent to evaluate freshwater-saltwater mixing within the aquifer. Concentrations of sodium and for the most part, potassium and sulfate, also appear to be determined by conservative mixing between saltwater and rain. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and strontium are higher than expected from conservative mixing; these higher concentrations are a result of the dissolution of carbonate minerals. An excess in dissolved inorganic carbon results from carbonate-mineral dissolution and from the oxidation of organic matter in the aquifer; the stoichiometric difference between excess dissolved inorganic carbon and excess bivalent cations is used as a measure of the amount of organic-matter oxidation. Organic-matter oxidation also is indicated by the low concentration of dissolved oxygen, high concentrations of nutrients, and the presence of hydrogen sulfide in many of the water samples. Low levels of dissolved oxygen indicate oxic respiration, and sulfate reduction is indicated by hydrogen sulfide. The amount of dissolved inorganic carbon released during organic-matter oxidation is nearly equivalent to the amount of carbonate-mineral dissolution. Organic-matter oxidation and carbonate-mineral dissolution seem to be most active either in the unsaturated zone or near the top of the water table. The most plausible explanation is that high amounts of oxic respiration in the unsaturated zone generate carbon dioxide

  1. Mixing the Green-Ampt model and Curve Number method as an empirical tool for rainfall excess estimation in small ungauged catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.

    2012-04-01

    The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.

  2. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shafique

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas.

  3. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon

    2018-03-16

    This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas.

  4. A preliminary investigation of radar rainfall estimation in the Ardennes region and a first hydrological application for the Ourthe catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Berne

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first assessment of the hydrometeorological potential of a C-band doppler weather radar recently installed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium near the village of Wideumont in the southern Ardennes region. An analysis of the vertical profile of reflectivity for two contrasting rainfall events confirms the expected differences between stratiform and convective precipitation. The mean areal rainfall over the Ourthe catchment upstream of Tabreux estimated from the Wideumont weather radar using the standard Marshall-Palmer reflectivity-rain rate relation shows biases between +128% and –42% for six selected precipitation events. For two rainfall events the radar-estimated mean areal rainfall is applied to the gauge-calibrated (lumped HBV-model for the Ourthe upstream of Tabreux, resulting in a significant underestimation with respect to the observed discharge for one event and a closer match for another. A bootstrap analysis using the radar data reveals that the uncertainty in the hourly discharge from the ~1600km2} catchment associated with the sampling uncertainty of the mean areal rainfall estimated from 10 rain gauges evenly spread over the catchment amounts to ±25% for the two events analyzed. This uncertainty is shown to be of the same order of magnitude as that associated with the model variables describing the initial state of the model.

  5. Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

    2017-03-01

    Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

  6. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon

    2018-01-01

    This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas. PMID:29547567

  7. Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

  8. Trace amount analysis using spark mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stefani, Rene

    1975-01-01

    Characteristics of spark mass spectrometers (ion source, properties of the ion beam, ion optics, and performance) and their use in qualitative and quantitative analysis are described. This technique is very interesting for the semi-quantitative analysis of trace amounts, down to 10 -8 atoms. Examples of applications such as the analysis of high purity materials and non-conducting mineral samples, and determination of carbon and gas trace amounts are presented. (50 references) [fr

  9. Accuracy of CHIRPS Satellite-Rainfall Products over Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Bai

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the main component of global water cycle. At present, satellite quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs are widely applied in the scientific community. However, the evaluations of satellite QPEs have some limitations in terms of the deficiency in observation, evaluation methodology, the selection of time windows for evaluation and short periods for evaluation. The objective of this work is to make some improvements by evaluating the spatio-temporal pattern of the long-terms Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation Satellite’s (CHIRPS’s QPEs over mainland China. In this study, we compared the daily precipitation estimates from CHIRPS with 2480 rain gauges across China and gridded observation using several statistical metrics in the long-term period of 1981–2014. The results show that there is significant difference between point evaluation and grid evaluation for CHIRPS. CHIRPS has better performance for a large amount of precipitation than it does for arid and semi-arid land. The change in good performance zones has strong relationship with monsoon’s movement. Therefore, CHIRPS performs better in river basins of southern China and exhibits poor performance in river basins in northwestern and northern China. Moreover, CHIRPS exhibits better in warm season than in Winter, owing to its limited ability to detect snowfall. Nevertheless, CHIRPS is moderately sensitive to the precipitation from typhoon weather systems. The limitations for CHIRPS result from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 estimates’ accuracy and valid spatial coverage.

  10. Changes in rainfall patterns in Mediterranean ecosystems: the MIND project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papale D

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Will Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems be affected by the expected changes in precipitation regimes? If so, by how much and in which direction? These questions are at the basis of the research performed in context of the EU MIND project, whose key objectives were: i to investigate the potential effects of increasing drought on Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems at the process, ecosystem and regional scales and ii to assess ecosystem vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns. A network of experimental study sites has been created in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, where field manipulations alter the amount of water available to the ecosystem. The most up-to-date methods of ecophysiology, micrometeorology, soil ecology and remote sensing have been used to elucidate the mechanisms that regulate the response of vegetation and soil to changes in water availability. This information is providing the basis for the implementation and validation of simulation models capable of predicting the drought response of Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems, and their vulnerability to future climate change, on a larger scale. The out-coming results are elucidating how water availability affects plant ecophysiological processes, the dynamics of soil carbon and the overall exchange of mass and energy between the land and the atmosphere. This paper focuses on some of the important, yet preliminary, results on C and energy fluxes that have been obtained at the large scale troughfall manipulation experiment (Tolfa, Italy, in a forest dominated by Arbutus unedo L.

  11. Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

  12. Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vessia, G.; Parise, M.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Rossi, M.; Vennari, C.; Guzzetti, F.

    2014-04-01

    Over the last 40 years, many contributions have been devoted to identifying the empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. intensity vs. duration ID, cumulated rainfall vs. duration ED, cumulated rainfall vs. intensity EI) for the initiation of shallow landslides, based on local as well as worldwide inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has rarely been addressed. Nonetheless, objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence (effective rainfall) play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented: (1) the first is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over one month preceding the landslide occurrence, and (2) the second on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure written in R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy by the CNR-IRPI research group from 2002 to 2012 has been used to calibrate the proposed procedure. The cumulated rainfall E and duration D of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the (D,E) diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the (D,E) pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method.

  13. Heat recovery from ground below the solar pond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganguly, S.; Date, Abhijit; Akbarzadeh, Aliakbar

    2017-01-01

    The method of heat recovery from the ground below solar ponds is investigated in the present brief note. Solar ponds lose considerable amount of heat from its bottom to the ground due to temperature gradient between them. This waste heat from ground, which is at different temperature at different

  14. Coping with Rainfall Variability in Northern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...... of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets....... There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local...

  15. Ground cover influence on evaporation and stable water isotopes in soil water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdalena Warter, Maria; Jiménez-Rodríguez, Cesar D.; Coenders-Gerrits, Miriam; Teuling, Adriaan J. Ryan

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are characterized by complex structures which influence hydrological processes such as evaporation. The vertical stratification of the forest modifies the effect of the evaporation process due to the composition and local distribution of species within the forest. The evaluation of it will improve the understanding of evaporation in forest ecosystems. To determine the influence of forest understory on the fractionation front, four ground cover types were selected from the Speulderbos forest in the Netherlands. The native species of Thamariskmoss (Thuidium thamariscinum), Rough Stalked Feathermoss (Brachythecium rutabulum), and Haircapmoss (Polytrichum commune) as well as one type of litter made up of Douglas-Fir needles (Pseudotsuga menziesii) were used to analyse the rate of evaporation and changes on the isotopic concentration of the soil water on an in-situ basis in a controlled environment. Over a period of 4 weeks soil water content and atmospheric conditions were continuously measured, while the rainfall simulations were performed with different amounts and timings. The reference water added to the boxes keeps a stable composition along the trial period with a δ ^2H value of -42.59±1.15 \\permil} and δ 18O of -6.01±0.21 \\permil}. The evaporation front in the four ground covers is located between 5 and 10 cm depth and deuterium excess values are bigger than 5 \\permil. The litter layer of Douglas-Fir needles is the cover with higher fractionation in respect to the added water at 10 cm depth (δ ^2H: -29.79 \\permil), while the Haircapmoss keeps the lower fractionation rate at 5 cm and 10 cm (δ ^2H: -33.62 and δ ^2H: -35.34 \\permil). The differences showed by the soil water beneath the different ground covers depict the influence of ground cover on fractionation rates of the soil water, underlining the importance of the spatial heterogeneity of the evaporation front in the first 15 cm of soil.

  16. The use of Mediterranean shrub to flight against the land degradation. The rainfall partitioning fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Estringana, Pablo; Nieves Alonso-Blazquez, M.; Alegre, Jesús; Cerdà, Artemi

    2014-05-01

    Desertification can be triggered by the lost of vegetation (Izzo et al., 2013). One of the impacts of the lack of vegetation is the increase in the effective rainfall and then higher soil and water losses. Vegetation can reduce the effective rainfall by interception. To recover the land that is affected by Desertification we must select plant species that will intercept the rainfall, but will not avoid the rainfall to reach the soil. This is why, studies on the plant rainfall interception are relevant to flight Land Degradation processes. Soil erosion is highly dependent on the effective rainfall (Cerdà and Lasanta, 2005; Haile and Fetene; 2012; Miao et al., 2012, Prokop and Poręba, 2012). The amount of rainfall that reaches the soil surface and can contribute to detach and transport material is determined by the interception of plants. Interception is also a key factor of the watershed hydrology (Zema et al., 2012). The importance of the rainfall partitioning fluxes is related to the climatic conditions, as climate control the plant cover and the soil properties, and then the soil losses (Cerdà, 1998). Although the shrubs has been seen as a key vegetation cover in semiarid lands to control the soil and water losses (Cerdà and Doerr, 2007) little information is available about rainfall interception in Mediterranean shrub vegetation, due to technical difficulties to measure them in such small-sized vegetation (Belmonte Serrato and Romero Diaz, 1998). The aim of this work was to assess the influence of different Mediterranean shrubs (Retama sphaerocarpa, Colutea arborescens, Dorycnium pentaphyllum, Medicago strasseri, Pistacia Lentiscus and Quercus coccifera) on rainfall partitioning fluxes (interception losses, throughfall and stemflow) in semiarid environments. The experiment was carried out under natural rainfall conditions with live specimens during two years, with automatic measurement of rainfall partitioning fluxes. In order to assess the influence of

  17. Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

    2016-04-01

    Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

  18. Geophysical Factor Resolving of Rainfall Mechanism for Super Typhoons by Using Multiple Spatiotemporal Components Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    This study develops a novel methodology to resolve the geophysical cause of typhoon-induced rainfall considering diverse dynamic co-evolution at multiple spatiotemporal components. The multi-order hidden patterns of complex hydrological process in chaos are detected to understand the fundamental laws of rainfall mechanism. The discovered spatiotemporal features are utilized to develop a state-of-the-art descriptive statistical model for mechanism validation, modeling and further prediction during typhoons. The time series of hourly typhoon precipitation from different types of moving track, atmospheric field and landforms are respectively precede the signal analytical process to qualify each type of rainfall cause and to quantify the corresponding affected degree based on the measured geophysical atmospheric-hydrological variables. This study applies the developed methodology in Taiwan Island which is constituted by complex diverse landform formation. The identified driving-causes include: (1) cloud height to ground surface; (2) co-movement effect induced by typhoon wind field with monsoon; (3) stem capacity; (4) interaction between typhoon rain band and terrain; (5) structural intensity variance of typhoon; and (6) integrated cloudy density of rain band. Results show that: (1) for the central maximum wind speed exceeding 51 m/sec, Causes (1) and (3) are the primary ones to generate rainfall; (2) for the typhoon moving toward the direction of 155° to 175°, Cause (2) is the primary one; (3) for the direction of 90° to 155°, Cause (4) is the primary one; (4) for the typhoon passing through mountain chain which above 3500 m, Cause (5) is the primary one; and (5) for the moving speed lower than 18 km/hr, Cause (6) is the primary one. Besides, the multiple geophys