Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

Movement of global warming issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Taishi

2015-01-01

This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin-Gorriz, B.; Soto-García, M.; Martínez-Alvarez, V.

2014-01-01

Global warming is leading to a water resources decrease in the Mediterranean basin, where future farming resilience depends on incorporating alternative water sources and improving water-energy use efficiency. This paper assesses water and energy consumption when natural water sources are partially replaced by desalinated sea water. Initially, energy consumption, water supply and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions were recorded for the current farming practices in SE (southeast) Spain. The results of our study indicate that citrus orchards have the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions. Annual vegetables were the least energy efficient crops. Subsequently, two alternative water supply scenarios were analysed, in which the reduction of natural water resources associated to climate change was compensated with desalinated sea water. The use of 16.8% of desalinated seawater would increase energy consumption by 32.4% and GHG emissions by 19.6%, whereas for the use of 26.5% of desalinated seawater such increases would amount to 50.0% and 30.3%, respectively. Therefore maintaining irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions by incorporating high energy demanding non-traditional water sources could negatively contribute to combat global warming. - Highlights: • Water supply, energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in irrigated agriculture are very connected. • The use of desalinated sea water will increase the energy consumption, and GHG emissions will rise. • The use of non-traditional water resources enhances global warming processes. • Citrus orchards are the less sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios. • Artichoke is the most sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oerlemans, J.

1989-01-01

It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelini, M.

2001-01-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schewe

2011-03-01

Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents, latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Andrew H; Jensen, Kai; Schönfeldt, Marisa

2014-03-01

Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no-migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (-14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south-latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and

Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-01-01

In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

Methodological advances: using greenhouses to simulate climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, F; Pascual, I; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Aguirreolea, J; Irigoyen, J J; Goicoechea, N; Antolín, M C; Oyarzun, M; Urdiain, A

2014-09-01

Human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. Related to this global warming, periods of low water availability are also expected to increase. Thus, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are three of the main factors related to climate change that potentially may influence crops and ecosystems. In this report, we describe the use of growth chamber - greenhouses (GCG) and temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG) to simulate climate change scenarios and to investigate possible plant responses. In the GCG, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are set to act simultaneously, enabling comparison of a current situation with a future one. Other characteristics of the GCG are a relative large space of work, fine control of the relative humidity, plant fertirrigation and the possibility of light supplementation, within the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) region and/or with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) light. In the TGG, the three above-mentioned factors can act independently or in interaction, enabling more mechanistic studies aimed to elucidate the limiting factor(s) responsible for a given plant response. Examples of experiments, including some aimed to study photosynthetic acclimation, a phenomenon that leads to decreased photosynthetic capacity under long-term exposures to elevated CO2, using GCG and TGG are reported. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What to do about greenhouse warming: Look before you leap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singer, S.F.; Revelle, R.; Starr, C.

1993-01-01

Greenhouse warming has emerged as one of the most complex and controversial environmental foreign-policy issues of the 1990s. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), generated from the burning of oil, gas, and coal, is thought to enhance the natural greenhouse effect that has kept the planet warm for billions of years. Some scientists predict drastic climatic changes in the 21st Century. It is a foreign-policy issue because the US has taken a more cautious approach to dealing with CO 2 emissions than have many industrialized nations. Wide acceptance of the Montreal Protocol, which limits and rolls back the manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to protect the ozone layer, has encouraged environmental activists at international conferences the past three years to call for similar controls on CO 2 from fossil-fuel burning. These activists are disappointed with the White House for not supporting immediate action. But should the US assume leadership in a hastily-conceived campaign that could cripple the global economy, or would it be more prudent to assure first, through scientific research, that the problem is both real and urgent? The authors sum up their conclusions in a simple message: The scientific base for a greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. There is little risk in delaying policy responses to this century-old problem since there is every expectation that scientific understanding will be substantially improved within the next decade. Instead of premature and likely ineffective controls on fuel use that would only slow down CO 2 , the same resources could be used to increase our economic and technological resilience so that we can apply specific remedies as necessary to reduce climate change or to adapt to it. Prudent steps now include energy conservation and efficiency increases and make economic sense even without the threat of greenhouse warming

Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

2012-01-01

Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID

Modeling impacts of alternative practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from rice-wheat annual rotation in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyang Wang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Measured data of methane (CH(4 and nitrous oxide (N(2O were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC model to a winter wheat - single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year impacts on net global warming potential (GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: The simulated cumulative CH(4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N(2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH(4 and N(2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1 high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH(4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH(4 emissions, (2 high inorganic N fertilizer increased N(2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N(2O emissions, (3 the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha(-1 yr(-1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4 the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Comment 1 on workshop in adaptation and mitigation strategies - why greenhouse warming stays a hot topic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppock, R.

1992-01-01

The rapidity with which greenhouse warming burst onto the national and international political agendas is surprising. So too is the fact that it has remained of central interest despite the lack of understanding of the phenomenon exhibited by the general public. Even with lackluster public response, politicians and governments around the world are advocating costly actions designed to counter greenhouse warming. A certain amount of attention and concern is necessary to establish and sustain the attention of government decision makers. There are several attributes of the greenhouse warming problem that generated enough attention and concern to propel it so quickly onto the international agenda and keep it in the forefront for action. First, it is one of a new set of global problems that is intimately connected to scientific analysis. A great deal of data has been collected and analyzed since the early 1960s. Scientists have been carefully laying the groundwork for decades and have a solid foundation for addressing the problem. They were ready in 1988 to capitalize on the North American drought as a vehicle to bring the longer-term problem of greenhouse warming to more wide-spread attention. In short, there is a large body of knowledge about the problem and possible remediative actions. Second, greenhouse warming is a vivid problem with considerable psychological impact. Following close on the heels of the antarctic ozone hole and more widespread depletion of stratospheric ozone, it also demonstrates human capacity to directly alter the physical planet on which we depend for survival. Greenhouse warming is symbolic of some of our deepest fears

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

1994-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective

Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

2010-07-01

For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Zhao

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2016-04-01

Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

Greenhouse science; Global warming: the origin and nature of alleged scientific consensus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindzen, R. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (USA))

1992-01-01

The paper contends that there is not a scientific consensus on the existence of global warming. The scientific issues associated with the prediction of global warming are reviewed and it is concluded that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in greenhouse gases such as CO[sub 2], methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The history of the current concern over global warming is described. Political aspects, scientists' concerns over funding and the desire of industrial companies to improve their public image by supporting environmental activists are some of the factors seen as responsible for the current global warming 'hysteria'. 6 figs.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Climate change - global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciconkov, Risto

2001-01-01

An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

2011-03-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onorato, P; Mascheretti, P; DeAmbrosis, A

2011-01-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

1990-01-01

Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

2011-01-01

Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

2012-01-01

In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands,

Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowley, T.J.

1990-01-01

Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

Literature review on the greenhouse effect and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

English, M.; Petri, H.; Wong, R.K.W.; Kochtubajda, B.

1990-08-01

A literature review of recent (1988-1990) publications on global warming and climate change was carried out by the Alberta Research Council. The objectives of the project were to develop a listing of relevant citations, review the publications, prepare a short summary of the contents of each, and develop statistics with respect to the degree to which scientific consensus exists on the various topics of interest. The bibliography contains 1,557 citations, and a total of 501 publications were reviewed. Topics of interest include computer modelling of world climate, potential impacts of climate change, potential strategies for responding to climate change, and technological solutions. Statistical results are presented of numbers of papers reviewed addressing types of emission, time of effective doubling of greenhouse gases, global temperature increase predicted for effective doubling of greenhouse gases, temperature increase in northern lattitudes for an effective doubling of greenhouse gases, components of atmosphere that are changing, potential impacts on agriculture, forestry, and health, suggested emission limitations, and suggested technological solutions. 4 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs

Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillett, Nathan P [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, V8W 3V6 (Canada); Matthews, H Damon, E-mail: nathan.gillett@ec.gc.ca [Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve West, H 1255-26, Montreal, QC, H3G 1M8 (Canada)

2010-07-15

Greenhouse gases other than CO{sub 2} make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO{sub 2} emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO{sub 2} following a unit mass emission, is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol, and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon-climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by {approx} 20% in coupled carbon-climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 x 1990 emissions, due to a warming-induced release of CO{sub 2} from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model, but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases, and we suggest that the carbon-climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied.

Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillett, Nathan P; Matthews, H Damon

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gases other than CO 2 make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO 2 emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO 2 following a unit mass emission, is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol, and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon-climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by ∼ 20% in coupled carbon-climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 x 1990 emissions, due to a warming-induced release of CO 2 from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model, but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases, and we suggest that the carbon-climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied.

The climatic warming up (the greenhouse effect); Le rechauffement climatique (l'effet de serre)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jancovici, J M; Jouzel, J [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Lorius, C [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, 38 - Grenoble (France); and others

2000-05-01

Facing the environmental and biological impacts of the climatic warming up, scientists and economists organized a debate on the subject. After a theoretical presentation of the greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gases, the climatic changes are discussed and simulation of the effects are presented. The today effects and tomorrow impacts on the agriculture and the public health are also presented. A synthesis is proposed to discuss the contribution of the energy policy and of the technological progress in measures of greenhouse effect control. (A.L.B.)

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

2014-01-01

The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Onorato, P; Mascheretti, P; DeAmbrosis, A, E-mail: pasquale.onorato@unipv.it, E-mail: anna.deambrosisvigna@unipv.it [Department of Physics ' A. Volta' , University of Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy)

2011-03-15

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity influenced by irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and nitrogen fertilization

Science.gov (United States)

Little information exists about sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affected by management practices to account for net emissions from agroecosystems. We evaluated the effects of irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas...

Positive feedback of greenhouse gas balances to warming is determined by non-growing season emissions in an alpine meadow

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, S.; Wang, J.; Quan, Q.; Chen, W.; Wen, X.; Yu, G.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in response to climate warming and human activity. So far, numerous previous studies have evaluated the CO2 budget, but little attention has paid to CH4 and N2O budgets and the concurrent balance of these three gases in combination, especially in the non-growing season. Here, we synthesized eddy covariance measurement with the automatic chamber measurements of CO2, CH4, and N2O exposed to three levels of temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5 °C, +2.5 °C) and two disturbance treatments (ummowing, mowing) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. We have found that warming caused increase in CH4 uptake and decrease in N2O emission offset little of the enhancement in CO2 emission, triggering a positive feedback to climate warming. Warming switches the ecosystem from a net sink (-17 ± 14 g CO2-eq m-2 yr-1) in the control to a net source of greenhouse gases of 94 ± 36 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +1.5 °C warming treatment, and 177 ± 6 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +2.5 °C warming treatment. The changes in the non-growing season balance, rather than those in the growing season, dominate the warming responses of annual greehouse gas balance. And this is not changed by mowing. The dominant role of responses of winter greenhouse gas balance in the positive feedback of ecosystem to climate warming highlights that greenhouse gas balance in cold season has to be considered when assessing climate-carbon cycle feedback.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Nuclear power and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donaldson, D.M.; Tolland, H.G.

1989-05-01

Global levels of the ''Greenhouse'' gases - carbon dioxide, the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, nitrous oxide and tropospheric ozone are increasing as a result of man's activities. This increase is widely expected to bring about a rise in global temperature with concomitant environmental impacts. Global warming has been observed over the last century, and the last decade has seen seven of the warmest years on record. There has also been increased variability in the weather (an expected consequence of global warming). However, these possible manifestations of the Greenhouse Effect are within natural variations and proof must await more definitive indications. A brief outline of current views on the Greenhouse Effect is given. This report addresses the energy sector using CO 2 emissions as a measure of its ''Greenhouse'' contribution. This approach understates the energy sector contribution. However, the difference is within the error band. It seems likely that the warming effect of non-energy related emissions will remain the same and there will be more pressure to reduce the emissions from the energy sector. To assess policy options the pattern of future energy demand is estimated. Two scenarios have been adopted to provide alternative frameworks. Both assume low energy growth projections based on increased energy efficiency. The role of nuclear power in reducing carbon dioxide emissions is considered. (author)

The climatic warming up (the greenhouse effect); Le rechauffement climatique (l'effet de serre)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jancovici, J.M.; Jouzel, J. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Lorius, C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, 38 - Grenoble (France)] [and others

2000-05-01

Facing the environmental and biological impacts of the climatic warming up, scientists and economists organized a debate on the subject. After a theoretical presentation of the greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gases, the climatic changes are discussed and simulation of the effects are presented. The today effects and tomorrow impacts on the agriculture and the public health are also presented. A synthesis is proposed to discuss the contribution of the energy policy and of the technological progress in measures of greenhouse effect control. (A.L.B.)

The greenhouse effect and climate warming up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leygonie, R.

1992-01-01

The present article is a follow-up to a previous article, under the same title, which describes the scientific bases of the greenhouse effect and the prospect, based on climatic global models, of a potential climate warming up. The conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, August 1990) were summarized, predicting a mean global temperature increase between 2.4 and 5.1 deg C in 2070, among other changes. The recent IPCC work confirms 1990 conclusions but states that the decline of ozone in the lower stratosphere could neutralize the radiative forcing of chlorofluorocarbons. At least ten more years of investigation are needed to ascertain an increase of the greenhouse effect. Information is given on recent events which may be connected with the global climate problem, in particular the spectacular eruption of the Pinatubo volcano, in mid 1991, cause of a probable cooling of the atmosphere and a potential decrease of radiative forcing due to anthropogenic dioxide emissions. The most important recent events in the political field is a directive proposal by the European Commission aimed at a taxation of both energy in general and of carbon dioxide emissions by fossil fuels. Another event is the United Nations Convention on climate change, signed by 155 countries at the Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development, which pledges signatories to decrease their greenhouse gas - emissions but no figures are given on percentages and calendar of reduction. At last, a short chapter is devoted to the French ECLAT programme on climate change which consists both in participating in world programmes and in performing original investigations by French Scientists

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Wehner

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Landfilling of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manfredi, Simone; Tonini, Davide; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2009-01-01

Accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste landfilling is summarized with the focus on processes and technical data for a number of different landfilling technologies: open dump (which was included as the worst-case-scenario), conventional landfills with flares and with energy recove...

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic change from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.

Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

2006-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

Greenhouse gas intensity of palm oil produced in Colombia addressing alternative land use change and fertilization scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castanheira, Érica Geraldes; Acevedo, Helmer; Freire, Fausto

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A comprehensive evaluation of alternative LUC and fertilization schemes. • The GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. • Colombian palm area expansion resulted in negative or low palm oil GHG intensity. • GHG emissions from plantation vary significantly with N 2 O emission parameters. - Abstract: The main goal of this article is to assess the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of palm oil produced in a specific plantation and mill in Colombia. A comprehensive evaluation of the implications of alternative land use change (LUC) scenarios (forest, shrubland, savanna and cropland conversion) and fertilization schemes (four synthetic and one organic nitrogen-fertilizer) was performed. A sensitivity analysis to field nitrous oxide emission calculation, biogas management options at mill, time horizon considered for global warming and multifunctionality approach were also performed. The results showed that the GHG intensity of palm oil greatly depends on the LUC scenario. Significant differences were observed between the LUC scenarios (−3.0 to 5.3 kg CO 2 eq kg −1 palm oil). The highest result is obtained if tropical rainforest is converted and the lowest if palm is planted on previous cropland, savanna and shrubland, in which almost all LUC from Colombian oil palm area expansion occurred between 1990 and 2009. Concerning plantation and oil extraction, it was shown that field nitrous oxide emissions and biogas management options have a high influence on GHG emissions

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

Science.gov (United States)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

The net greenhouse warming forcing of methanol produced from biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellington, R.T.; Meo, M.; El-Sayed, D.A.

1993-01-01

Recent national and international actions regarding atmosphere warming mitigation, clean technology, and technology transfer have emphasized the need for a method for unambiguous greenhouse gas emissions analysis for comparing technologies, documentation of application of the method, and proof of applicability. We have developed and applied such an approach to production of methanol fuel from woody biomass. The system was defined, its emission for its entire lifetime delineated, and the atmospheric warming forcing calculated for that lifetime plus after effects. The results are presented with materials and energy balances including ancillary equipment, external energy subsidies and invested quantities. These extend the analysis considerably beyond those possible using the global warming potential (GWP). For wood input of 283 mg day -1 , 70 mg of methanol are produced. System carbon dioxide emissions are 3.18 tonne/tonne methanol produced, with another 1.37 mg emitted when that tonne methanol is burned in a vehicle. System energy usage efficiency was 41.2%, and 41.1% with inclusion of energy to construct the system. In essence, more than two Joules of carbon must be produced in wood for every Joule burned in the vehicle. (author)

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

The role of reduced aerosol precursor emissions in driving near-term warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillett, Nathan P; Von Salzen, Knut

2013-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios all assume stringent emissions controls on aerosols and their precursors, and hence include progressive decreases in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions through the 21st century. Recent studies have suggested that the resultant decrease in aerosols could drive rapid near-term warming, which could dominate the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases in the coming decades. In CanESM2 simulations, we find that under the RCP 2.6 scenario, which includes the fastest decrease in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, the contribution of aerosol reductions to warming between 2000 and 2040 is around 30%. Moreover, the rate of warming in the RCP 2.6 simulations declines gradually from its present-day value as GHG emissions decrease. Thus, while aerosol emission reductions contribute to gradual warming through the 21st century, we find no evidence that aerosol emission reductions drive particularly rapid near-term warming in this scenario. In the near-term, as in the long-term, GHG increases are the dominant driver of warming. (letter)

The Effects of Concept Cartoons on Eliminating Students’ Misconceptions: Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lale Cerrah Ozsevgeç

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study is to examine the effects of concept cartoons on eliminating students’ misconceptions about the global warming and greenhouse effect. The sample of the study is consisted of 17 students from the 7 grade of Rize Çay Primary School. Simple experimental study design was used in the study. Test and semi-structured interview were used to collect the data. The results of the study showed that the students had misconceptions about global warming and greenhouse effect. The teaching process comprising concept cartoons treated most of these misconceptions. Students indicated that the teaching process was enjoyable and it eased the students’ remembering of the given knowledge. Based on the results, it was suggested that the teachers should be informed about the usage of concept cartoon in the classroom and combination of different teaching methods which is supported by concept cartoon may be more useful for different science subjects.

Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

Recycling of plastic: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, Thomas; Fruergaard, Thilde; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2009-01-01

Major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to plastic waste recycling were evaluated with respect to three management alternatives: recycling of clean, single-type plastic, recycling of mixed/contaminated plastic, and use of plastic waste as fuel in industrial processes. Source-separated plasti...... to a mixture of different plastic types and/or contamination, the plastic should be used for energy utilization. Recycling of plastic waste for substitution of other materials such as wood provided no savings with respect to global warming....

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

Science.gov (United States)

Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Cloud Feedbacks on Greenhouse Warming in a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework with a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Anning; Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-01-01

Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Comendant I.

2010-04-01

Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

The economics of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pillet, G.; Hediger, W.; Kypreos, S.; Corbaz, C.

1993-05-01

The global warming threat is challenging the world community to both international cooperation and national policy action. This report focuses on the necessity to alternate between ''global and national climate policies''. The Swiss perspective is at issue. The economic rationales for comparing national climate policy options are analyzed. This report explicitly focusses on the fundamental role of the normative framework and the related environmental-economic requisites for establishing an efficient national climate policy and computing a ''carbon tax''. Finally, the latest results of the energy and greenhouse gas scenarios for Switzerland, elaborated on within the network of the IEA/ETSAP Project, Annex IV, ''Greenhouse Gases and National Energy Options: Technologies and Costs for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases'', illustrate Switzerland's difficulties in reducing greenhouse gas emissions at ''reasonable cost'' compared with other countries. This should make Switzerland very sensitive to the implementation of efficient environmental-policy instruments and international cooperation. (author) figs., tabs., refs

Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry

2013-01-01

Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puig, Daniel

This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...

Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

2017-01-01

The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Ran; Tao, Fulu; Xu, Zhihui

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006-2015), 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106-2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to 13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from -0.45 to 6.71 and -3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median change in standard deviation (SD) of TEWR ranged from -10 to 10 % in about 90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, across all four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasing more. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher under the 2.0 than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario in terms of both extent and intensity. Runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum

Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect: January 1986-January 1992. Quick Bibliography Series: QB 92-36.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Jayne T.

This bibliography contains 442 journal article, book, and audiovisual citations on global warming and the greenhouse effect entered into the National Agricultural Library's AGRICOLA database between January 1979 and March 1992. The bibliography contains an author and subject index as well as information on obtaining documents. (LZ)

Mass Media and Global Warming: A Public Arenas Model of the Greenhouse Effect's Scientific Roots.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuzil, Mark

1995-01-01

Uses the Public Arenas model to examine the historical roots of the greenhouse effect issue as communicated in scientific literature from the early 1800s to modern times. Utilizes a constructivist approach to discuss several possible explanations for the rise and fall of global warming as a social problem in the scientific arena. (PA)

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response

Global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in rice agriculture driven by high yields and nitrogen use efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoxu; Xu, Xin; Liu, Yinglie; Wang, Jinyang; Xiong, Zhengqin

2016-05-01

Our understanding of how global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is affected by management practices aimed at food security with respect to rice agriculture remains limited. In the present study, a field experiment was conducted in China to evaluate the effects of integrated soil-crop system management (ISSM) on GWP and GHGI after accounting for carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions from all sources, including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, agrochemical inputs and farm operations and sinks (i.e., soil organic carbon sequestration). The ISSM mainly consisted of different nitrogen (N) fertilization rates and split, manure, Zn and Na2SiO3 fertilization and planting density for the improvement of rice yield and agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). Four ISSM scenarios consisting of different chemical N rates relative to the local farmers' practice (FP) rate were carried out, namely, ISSM-N1 (25 % reduction), ISSM-N2 (10 % reduction), ISSM-N3 (FP rate) and ISSM-N4 (25 % increase). The results showed that compared with the FP, the four ISSM scenarios significantly increased the rice yields by 10, 16, 28 and 41 % and the agronomic NUE by 75, 67, 35 and 40 %, respectively. In addition, compared with the FP, the ISSM-N1 and ISSM-N2 scenarios significantly reduced the GHGI by 14 and 18 %, respectively, despite similar GWPs. The ISSM-N3 and ISSM-N4 scenarios remarkably increased the GWP and GHGI by an average of 69 and 39 %, respectively. In conclusion, the ISSM strategies are promising for both food security and environmental protection, and the ISSM scenario of ISSM-N2 is the optimal strategy to realize high yields and high NUE together with low environmental impacts for this agricultural rice field.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-01-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown. PMID:27616203

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-12

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Zhai

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C; it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs for the baseline (2006–2015, 1.5, and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106–2115 were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to provide more comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to 13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from −0.45 to 6.71 and −3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median change in standard deviation (SD of TEWR ranged from −10 to 10 % in about 90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, across all four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasing more. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher under the 2.0 than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario in terms of both extent and intensity. Runoff was significantly positively

A global meta-analysis on the impact of management practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from cropland soils

Science.gov (United States)

Agricultural practices contribute significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but little is known about their effects on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of carbon dioxide emissions per unit area or crop yield. Se...

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Corbett

2010-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO₂ emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Buying greenhouse insurance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manne, A.S.; Richels, R.G.

1992-01-01

A growing concern that the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases will lead to undesirable changes in global climate has resulted in proposals, both in the United States and internationally, to set physical targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But what will these proposals cost? This book outlines a way to think about greenhouse-effect decisions under uncertainty. It describes an insightful model for determining the economic costs of limiting CO 2 emissions produced by burning fossil fuels and provides a solid analytical base for rethinking public policy on the far-reaching issue of global warming. It presents region-by-region estimates of the costs that would underlie an international agreement. Using a computer model known as Global 2100, they analyze the economic impacts of limiting CO 2 emissions under alternative supply and conservation scenarios. The results clearly indicate that a reduction in emissions is not the sole policy response to potential climate change. Following a summary of the greenhouse effect, its likely causes, and possible consequences, this book takes up issues that concern the public at large. They provide an overview of Global 2100, look at how the U.S. energy sector is likely to evolve under business-as-usual conditions and under carbon constraints, and describe the concept of greenhouse insurance. They consider possible global agreements, including an estimate of benefits that might result from trading in an international market in emission rights. They conclude with a technical description directed toward modeling specialists

Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

2012-01-01

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

2013-01-01

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

Scenarios of high greenhouse gas emission reduction in transports and buildings by 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teissier, O.; Meunier, L.

2008-01-01

The authors report simulations of different environmental policy measures concerning transports and buildings in France. First, they review measures which may entail a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and comment their emission reduction potential and their implementation costs. These measures are then ranked, and only those presenting a significant potential and an economically and technologically feasibility are finally considered. Their impact is then simulated by using different models which are adapted to the both sectors and to time ranges. The obtained results are compared to those obtained with a calibrated trend scenario and with a 'factor 4' scenario

Night-time warming and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukla, G.; Karl, T.R.

1993-01-01

Studies of temperature data collected mainly from rural stations in North America, China, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Australia, Sudan, Japan, Denmark, Northern Finland, several Pacific Islands, Pakistan, South Africa and Europe suggest that the reported warming of the Northern Hemisphere since WWII is principally a result of an increase in night-time temperatures. The average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the mean diurnal temperature range (DTR), were calculated for various regions from data supplied by 1000 stations from 1951 to 1990. Average and minimum temperatures generally rose during the analysed interval and the rise in night-time temperatures was more pronounced than the increase in daily maximum temperatures. As a result, the mean DTR decreased almost everywhere. The most probable causes of the rise in night-time temperatures are: an increase in cloudiness owing to natural changes in the circulation patterns of oceans and the atmosphere; increased cloud cover density caused by industrial pollution; urban heat islands, generated by cities, which are strongest during the night; irrigation which keeps the surface warmer at night and cooler by day; and anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 18 refs., 3 figs

Climate warming: what we can actually expect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delbecq, Denis; Lemarchand, Fabienne; Boucher, Olivier; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Le Treut, Herve

2013-01-01

As the next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is soon to be published, a paleo-climatologist answers few questions about issues related to climate change (recent climate events, slower temperature increase during the past ten years, lessons learned from the previous IPCC report, evolutions of models, remaining opportunities to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees). A second article comments climate modelling improvements (finer description of oceans, atmosphere and ice field, introduction of new mechanisms in IPCC models such as carbon cycle, vegetation evolution, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, models relying on greenhouse gas emission principles and not on socioeconomic scenarios any longer). A third article outlines that Earth has never been so warm since 1850 and proposes some explanations about the fact that warming has slowed down during the last ten years. A fourth article discusses how greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced, notices that their accounting underestimates the short-term and medium-term impact of methane emission reduction, and stresses the importance of an increased attention to methane emissions

The Greenhouse and Anti-Greenhouse Effects on Titan

Science.gov (United States)

McKay, C. P.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn and is the only moon in the solar system with a substantial atmosphere. Its atmosphere is mostly made of nitrogen, with a few percent CH4, 0.1% H2 and an uncertain level of Ar (less than 10%). The surface pressure is 1.5 atms and the surface temperature is 95 K, decreasing to 71 at the tropopause before rising to stratospheric temperatures of 180 K. In pressure and composition Titan's atmosphere is the closest twin to Earth's. The surface of Titan remains unknown, hidden by the thick smog layer, but it may be an ocean of liquid methane and ethane. Titan's atmosphere has a greenhouse effect which is much stronger than the Earth's - 92% of the surface warming is due to greenhouse radiation. However an organic smog layer in the upper atmosphere produces an anti-greenhouse effect that cuts the greenhouse warming in half - removing 35% of the incoming solar radiation. Models suggest that during its formation Titan's atmosphere was heated to high temperatures due to accretional energy. This was followed by a cold Triton-like period which gradually warmed to the present conditions. The coupled greenhouse and haze anti-greenhouse may be relevant to recent suggestions for haze shielding of a CH4 - NH3 early atmosphere on Earth or Mars. When the NASA/ESA mission to the Saturn System, Cassini, launches in a few years it will carry a probe that will be sent to the surface of Titan and show us this world that is strange and yet in many ways similar to our own.

Greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, global warming potential and waste management – an introduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter; Gentil, Emmanuel

2009-01-01

forcing (RF) and global warming potential (GWP). This paper provides a general introduction of the factors that define a GHG and explains the scientific background for estimating RF and GWP, thereby exposing the lay reader to a brief overview of the methods for calculating the effects of GHGs on climate......Management of post-consumer solid waste contributes to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) representing about 3% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Most GHG reporting initiatives around the world utilize two metrics proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): radiative...

Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamminger, Chris; Poll, Christian; Marhan, Sven

2018-01-01

Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (R s ), and metabolic quotient (qCO 2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO 2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N 2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N 2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

2011-01-01

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-07-15

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1997-12-31

The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios. The Implications for Policy. An Example from Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.I.

1999-01-01

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and ,most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and 'the precautionary principle'. 21 refs

Greenhouse Gases Emission and Global Warming Potential as Affected by Chemical Inputs for Main Cultivated Crops in Kerman Province: - Horticultural Crops

OpenAIRE

Nasibe Pourghasemian; Rooholla Moradi

2017-01-01

Introduction The latest report of the IPCC states that future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will continue to increase and will be the main cause of global climatic changes, as well as Iran. The three greenhouse gases associated with agriculture are CO2, CH4, and N2O. Chemical inputs consumption in agriculture has increased annually, while more intensive use of energy led to some important human health and environmental problems such as greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Th...

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2010-01-26

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

Nuclear energy, a solution in the struggle against global warming in quest of recognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faudon, Valerie

2014-01-01

In this article, the author first comments assessments of the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions as they appear in the IPCC report of September 2013 and in the results published by the Global Carbon Project. She also evokes the commitments in emission reductions in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol and some dramatic consequences global warming may have according to the IPCC scenarios. Then, she addresses the share of nuclear energy in energy production and outlines its stakes and benefits in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. She notices that international bodies (European Commission, World Bank) do not mention nuclear energy in their plan for energy production development, but mainly rely on the development of renewable energies. The author then outlines the reasons why the development of renewable energies does not necessarily goes with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. She also notices that a new generation of ecologists considers nuclear energy as a tool to struggle against climate warming

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia

OpenAIRE

Aleluia Reis, Lara; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David

2016-01-01

Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2êC) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GD...

How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

Science.gov (United States)

Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

2016-04-01

While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5Eg

The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

2004-01-01

Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

2011-01-01

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2009-12-15

The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal

OpenAIRE

Boysen, L.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.; Lenton, T.; Schellnhuber, H.

2017-01-01

Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying "well below 2°C" global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature "overshoot" in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to "repair" delayed or insufficient emissions redu...

Studying the physical basis of global warming: thermal effects of the interaction between radiation and matter and greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besson, Ugo; De Ambrosis, Anna; Mascheretti, Paolo [Department of Physics ' A Volta' , University of Pavia, Via A Bassi 6, 27100 Pavia (Italy)], E-mail: ugo.besson@unipv.it, E-mail: anna.deambrosisvigna@unipv.it

2010-03-15

We present a teaching module dealing with the thermal effects of interaction between radiation and matter, the infrared emission of bodies and the greenhouse effect devoted to university level and teacher education. The module stresses the dependence of the optical properties of materials (transparency, absorptivity and emissivity) on radiation frequency, as a result of interaction between matter and radiation. Multiple experiences are suggested to favour a progressive construction of knowledge on the physical aspects necessary to understand the greenhouse effect and global warming. Some results obtained with university students are briefly reported.

Studying the physical basis of global warming: thermal effects of the interaction between radiation and matter and greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besson, Ugo; De Ambrosis, Anna; Mascheretti, Paolo

2010-01-01

We present a teaching module dealing with the thermal effects of interaction between radiation and matter, the infrared emission of bodies and the greenhouse effect devoted to university level and teacher education. The module stresses the dependence of the optical properties of materials (transparency, absorptivity and emissivity) on radiation frequency, as a result of interaction between matter and radiation. Multiple experiences are suggested to favour a progressive construction of knowledge on the physical aspects necessary to understand the greenhouse effect and global warming. Some results obtained with university students are briefly reported.

Greenhouse gas measurements from aircraft during CARVE

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, R. Y.; Miller, C. E.; Dinardo, S. J.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Daube, B.; Pittman, J. V.; Miller, J. B.; Budney, J. W.; Gottlieb, E. W.; Santoni, G. W.; Kort, E. A.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-12-01

Permafrost in the Arctic contain large carbon pools that are currently non-labile. As the polar regions warm, these carbon reserves can be released into the atmosphere and impact the greenhouse gas budget. In order to predict future climate scenarios, we need to understand the emissions of these greenhouse gases under varying environmental conditions. This study presents aircraft measurements made as a part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) which flew over Alaska from May to September 2012 and captured seasonal and spatial variations. Results from in situ cavity ring down spectroscopy measurements of CO2, CH4 and CO will be discussed and compared with aircraft measurements made during the summer of 1988 as a part of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition as well as relevant measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations experiments (2009-2011).

The Once and Future North Atlantic: How the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Can Increase Stakeholder Preparedness in a Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, P.; de Mutsert, K.

2013-12-01

Paleoclimatic reconstructions, particularly from periods that may serve as an analog to the present and future greenhouse-driven warming, are increasingly being used to validate climate models as well as to provide constraints on broad impacts such as global temperature and sea level change. However, paleoclimatic data remains under-utilized in decision-making processes by stakeholders, who typically rely on scenarios produced by computer models or naive extrapolation of present trends. We hope to increase the information available to stakeholders by incorporating paleoclimatic data from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ~3ma) into a fisheries model of the North Atlantic. North Atlantic fisheries are economically important and are expected to be sensitive to climatic change. State of the art climate models remain unable to realistically simulate the North Atlantic, both over the observational record as well as during times in the geologic past such as the mPWP. Given that the mPWP shares many of the same boundary conditions as those likely to be seen in the near future, we seek to answer the question 'What if the climate of the future looks more like the climate of the past?' relative to what state of the art computer models currently project. To that end we have created a suite of future North Atlantic Ocean scenarios using output from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 modeling experiments, as well as the PRISM group's Mid-Pliocene ocean reconstruction. We use these scenarios to drive an ecosystem-based fisheries model using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software to identify differences between the scenarios as the North Atlantic Ocean changes through time. Additionally, we examine the spatial component of these differences by using the Ecospace module of EwE. Whereas the Ecosim realizations are intended to capture the dynamic response to changing oceanographic parameters (SST, SSS, DO) over time, the Ecospace experiments are intended to explore the impact of different

Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R

2013-01-01

We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)

Modeling of the climate system and of its response to a greenhouse effect increase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, L.

2005-01-01

The anthropic disturbance of the Earth's greenhouse effect is already visible and will enhance in the coming years or decades. In front of the rapidity and importance of the global warming effect, the socio-economical management of this change will rise problems and must be studied by the scientific community. At the modeling level, finding a direct strategy for the validation of climate models is not easy: many uncertainties exist because energy transformations take place at a low level and several processes take place at the same time. The variability observed at the seasonal, inter-annual or paleo- scales allows to validate the models at the process level but not the evolution of the whole system. The management of these uncertainties is an integral part of the global warming problem. Thus, several scenarios can be proposed and their risk of occurrence must be estimated. This paper presents first the greenhouse effect, the climatic changes during geologic times, the anthropic disturbance of the greenhouse effect, the modeling of climate and the forecasting of its evolution. (J.S.)

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

The Dynamic Greenhouse Challenge

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Harry T.

2010-01-01

Greenhouses are marvelous devices, allowing one to enjoy the flower spectacle of summer all year round. At night, greenhouses use supplemental heat to keep the fragile plants warm. Over the last 30 years, greenhouse technology has undergone many changes, with the structures being automated and monitored and low-cost plastic structures emerging as…

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1998-01-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse...... gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore, the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution...... to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source....

Keeping cool on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

1992-01-01

A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Regional greenhouse climate effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Rind, D.; Delgenio, A.; Lacis, A.; Lebedeff, S.; Prather, M.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T.

1990-01-01

The authors discuss the impact of an increasing greenhouse effect on three aspects of regional climate: droughts, storms and temperature. A continuous of current growth rates of greenhouse gases causes an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in their climate model simulations, with the greatest impacts in broad regions of the subtropics and middle latitudes. But the greenhouse effect enhances both ends of the hydrologic cycle in the model, that is, there is an increased frequency of extreme wet situations, as well as increased drought. Model results are shown to imply that increased greenhouse warming will lead to more intense thunderstorms, that is, deeper thunderstorms with greater rainfall. Emanual has shown that the model results also imply that the greenhouse warming leads to more destructive tropical cyclones. The authors present updated records of observed temperatures and show that the observations and model results, averaged over the globe and over the US, are generally consistent. The impacts of simulated climate changes on droughts, storms and temperature provide no evidence that there will be regional winners if greenhouse gases continue to increase rapidly

An accurate analytical solution of a zero-dimensional greenhouse model for global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foong, S K

2006-01-01

In introducing the complex subject of global warming, books and papers usually use the zero-dimensional greenhouse model. When the ratio of the infrared radiation energy of the Earth's surface that is lost to outer space to the non-reflected average solar radiation energy is small, the model admits an accurate approximate analytical solution-the resulting energy balance equation of the model is a quartic equation that can be solved analytically-and thus provides an alternative solution and instructional strategy. A search through the literature fails to find an analytical solution, suggesting that the solution may be new. In this paper, we review the model, derive the approximation and obtain its solution. The dependence of the temperature of the surface of the Earth and the temperature of the atmosphere on seven parameters is made explicit. A simple and convenient formula for global warming (or cooling) in terms of the percentage change of the parameters is derived. The dependence of the surface temperature on the parameters is illustrated by several representative graphs

Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age Legacy?

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, P.

2016-12-01

Relying on the IPCC Assessments, this paper assesses legacy from total committed global warming over centuries, correlated with comprehensive projected impacts. Socio-economic inertia, climate system inertia, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, amplifying feedback emissions, and unmasking of cooling aerosols are determinants. Stabilization of global temperature (and ocean acidification for CO2) requires emissions of "long lived greenhouse gases" to be "about zero," including feedbacks. "The feedback … is positive" this century; many large feedback sources tend to be self- and inter-reinforcing. Only timely total conversion of all fossil fuel power to clean, virtually zero-carbon renewable power can achieve virtual zero carbon emissions. This results in multiple, increasing benefits for the entire world population of today's and all future generations, as laid out here. Conversions of methane- and nitrous oxide-emitting sources have large benefits. Without timely conversion to virtual zero emissions, the global climate and ocean disruptions are predicted to become progressively more severe and practically irreversible. "Continued emission of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems." Crop yields in all main food-producing regions are projected to decline progressively with rising temperature (as proxy to multiple adverse effects) (AR5). Ocean heating, acidification, and de-oxygenation are projected to increase under all scenarios, as is species extinction. The legacy for humanity depends on reducing long-lived global emissions fast enough to virtual zero. Today's surface warming with unprecedented and accelerating atmospheric GHG concentrations requires an immediate response. The only IPCC scenario to possibly meet this and not exceed 2ºC by and after 2100 is the best-case RCP2.6, which requires CO2 eq. emissions to peak right away and decline at the latest by 2020.

Global warming on trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broeker, W.S.

1992-01-01

Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

2015-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

2014-01-01

Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Optimal scenario balance of reduction in costs and greenhouse gas emissions for municipal solid waste management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

邓娜; 张强; 陈广武; 齐长青; 崔文谦; 张于峰; 马洪亭

2015-01-01

To reduce carbon intensity, an improved management method balancing the reduction in costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required for Tianjin’s waste management system. Firstly, six objective functions, namely, cost minimization, GHG minimization, eco-efficiency minimization, cost maximization, GHG maximization and eco-efficiency maximization, are built and subjected to the same constraints with each objective function corresponding to one scenario. Secondly, GHG emissions and costs are derived from the waste flow of each scenario. Thirdly, the range of GHG emissions and costs of other potential scenarios are obtained and plotted through adjusting waste flow with infinitely possible step sizes according to the correlation among the above six scenarios. And the optimal scenario is determined based on this range. The results suggest the following conclusions. 1) The scenarios located on the border between scenario cost minimization and GHG minimization create an optimum curve, and scenario GHG minimization has the smallest eco-efficiency on the curve;2) Simple pursuit of eco-efficiency minimization using fractional programming may be unreasonable; 3) Balancing GHG emissions from incineration and landfills benefits Tianjin’s waste management system as it reduces GHG emissions and costs.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Foxes, hedgehogs, and greenhouse governance: Knowledge, uncertainty, and international policy-making in a warming World

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michel, David

2009-01-01

Global environmental challenges like greenhouse warming are characterized by profound uncertainties about the workings of complex systems, high stakes as to the costs and benefits of various possible actions, and important differences concerning the values that should shape public choices, confounding ready resolution by conventional decision-making procedures. So-called adaptive or reflexive governance strategies provide policy-makers an alternative framework for tackling the greenhouse problem. Adaptive governance employs deliberate experimentation and continuous learning-by-doing to test and adjust ongoing policy responses. Yet pursuing such approaches poses particular challenges to global climate cooperation. In an increasingly interdependent world, coordinating multiple parties experimentally adopting different climate measures could prove contentious. Unequivocal policy lessons may be difficult to draw and apply. Timely collective revisions to ongoing policies may prove more difficult still to define and agree. Advocates must engage these issues directly and develop means of addressing them if adaptive governance approaches are to allow policy-makers to formulate better strategies for combating climate change. (author)

Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

1994-01-01

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

2018-01-01

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

Global warming: Towards a strategy for Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

A discussion paper is provided as background to a proposed public review of a strategy for Ontario's response to global warming. Global warming arises from the generation of greenhouse gases, which come from the use of fossil fuels, the use of chlorofluorocarbons, and deforestation. Energy policy is the backbone of achieving climate stability since the burning of fossil fuels releases most of the greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide. Canada is, by international standards, a very energy-intensive country and is among the world's largest emitters of carbon dioxide on a per capita basis. Ontario is the largest energy-using province in Canada, and fossil fuels represent over 80% of provincial energy use. A proposed goal for Ontario is to provide leadership in stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, while minimizing the social, economic, and environmental costs in Ontario of adapting to global warming. A proposed first step to address global warming is to achieve reductions in expected emissions of the greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, so that levels by the year 2000 are lower than in 1989. Current policies and regulations helping to reduce the greenhouse effect include some of the current controls on automotive emissions and the adoption by the provincial electric utility of targets to reduce electricity demand. New initiatives include establishment of minimum energy efficiency standards and reduction of peak-day electricity use. Action steps for future consideration are detailed in the categories of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, carbon dioxide absorption, and research and analysis into global warming

Mitigation of global warming and the role of identification of greenhouse gas sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaya, Y.

2002-01-01

Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST) is an organization supporting R and D of frontier science and technologies under the full sponsorship of the government of Japan. Under the umbrella of JST the author is in charge of a program called 'Environment friendly social systems' which includes more than 20 research projects for better environment (with as an average of 1 million US dollars per project per year). One of the projects in this program is on development of isotopomer technology and its use in identifying greenhouse gas (GHG) sources headed by Prof. N.Yoshida. JST earnestly hopes that it can contribute as much as possible to mitigation of global warming through the support of important research projects such as Yoshida's. (author)

Scenario for a warm, high-CO/sub 2/ world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wigley, T M.L.; Jones, P D; Kelly, P M

1980-01-03

To assess the impact of global changes in temperature, precipitation, and winds that might occur as a result of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, a meteorologically and climatologically realistic scenario of global warming was developed. The patterns of climatic changes that could result from a large increase in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ were determined by comparing the five warmest years from 1925-74 with the five coldest years in the same period. Results indicate that increased atmospheric CO/sub 2/ will cause temperature increases in most regions of the world, with maximum temperature increases occurring in northern Asia. A few isolated regions, however, will be cooler. Precipitation will increase over India and decrease in regions of the U.S., Europe, and the USSR. The social, political, and economic impacts of these changes are briefly considered. (2 maps, 34 references)

HFCs contribution to the greenhouse effect. Present and projected estimations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Libre, J.M.; Elf-Atochem, S.A. [Central Research & Development, Paris (France)

1997-12-31

This paper reviews data that can be used to calculate hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) contribution to the greenhouse effect and compare it to other trace gas contributions. Projections are made for 2010 and 2100 on the basis of available emission scenarios. Industrial judgement on the likelihood of those scenarios is also developed. Calculations can be made in two different ways: from Global Warming Potential weighted emissions of species or by direct calculation of radiative forcing based on measured and projected atmospheric concentrations of compounds. Results show that HFCs corresponding to commercial uses have a negligible contribution to the greenhouse effect in comparison with other trace gases. The projected contributions are also very small even if very high emission scenarios are maintained for decades. In 2010 this contribution remains below 1%. Longer term emissions projections are difficult. However, based on the IPCC scenario IS92a, in spite of huge emissions projected for the year 2100, the HFC contribution remains below 3%. Actually many factors indicate that the real UFC contribution to the greenhouse effect will be even smaller than presented here. Low emissive systems and small charges will likely improve sharply in the future and have drastically improved in the recent past. HFC technology implementation is likely to grow in the future, reach a maximum before the middle of the next century; the market will stabilise driven by recycling, closing of systems and competitive technologies. This hypothesis is supported by previous analysis of the demand for HTCs type applications which can be represented by {open_quotes}S{close_quotes} type curves and by recent analysis indicating that the level of substitution of old products by HFCs is growing slowly. On the basis of those data and best industrial judgement, the contribution of HFCs to the greenhouse effect is highly likely to remain below 1% during the next century. 11 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, C.R.

2008-08-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

Global warming: the complete briefing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Houghton, J

1994-01-01

The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

2018-06-01

The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

The greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, A.

1991-01-01

The greenhouse effect on earth can be defined as the long wave energy trapped in the atmosphere. Climate forcing and climate system response within which climate feedback mechanisms are contained are determined. Quantitative examples illustrate what could happen if the greenhouse effect is perturbed by human activities, in particular if CO2 atmospheric concentration would double in the future. Recent satellite measurements of the greenhouse effect are given. The net cooling effect of clouds and whether or not there will be less cooling by clouds as the planet warms are also discussed

The greenhouse effect gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

This road-map proposes by the Group Total aims to inform the public on the greenhouse effect gases. It presents the greenhouses effect as a key component of the climate system, the impacts of the human activity, the foreseeable consequences of global warming, the Kyoto protocol and Total commitment in the domain. (A.L.B.)

Global warming: A vicious circle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, J.

1991-01-01

As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

Greenhouse gases - observed tendencies contra scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern

2006-01-01

The article presents a study of the increase in greenhouse gases and concludes that it will be necessary to substantially reduce the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in order to avoid serious climatic changes

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

OpenAIRE

Jinjie Song; Yuan Wang; Jianping Tang

2016-01-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth?s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (G a and G s) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effec...

Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Cuenot

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

2009-01-01

In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

A Three-Tier Diagnostic Test to Assess Pre-Service Teachers' Misconceptions about Global Warming, Greenhouse Effect, Ozone Layer Depletion, and Acid Rain

Science.gov (United States)

Arslan, Harika Ozge; Cigdemoglu, Ceyhan; Moseley, Christine

2012-01-01

This study describes the development and validation of a three-tier multiple-choice diagnostic test, the atmosphere-related environmental problems diagnostic test (AREPDiT), to reveal common misconceptions of global warming (GW), greenhouse effect (GE), ozone layer depletion (OLD), and acid rain (AR). The development of a two-tier diagnostic test…

Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

2014-01-01

This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

Through the greenhouse window

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Townsley, M.

1989-01-01

Nuclear power is being promoted as the only answer to the greenhouse effect. However, power station emissions (from fossil-fuel powered stations) account for only a fraction of the total carbon dioxide emissions. And carbon dioxide accounts for only about a half of the global warming effect -the other gases which create the greenhouse effect must also be limited. Nuclear energy is neither a practical nor economic alternative. Energy efficiency and conservation is a far better answer to the greenhouse effect. (U.K.)

CF3SF5 : a ‘super’ greenhouse gas

OpenAIRE

Tuckett, R. P.

2008-01-01

One molecule of the anthropogenic pollutant trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride (CF\\(_3\\)SF\\(_5\\)), an adduct of the CF\\(_3\\) and SF\\(_5\\) free radicals, causes more global warming than one molecule of any other greenhouse gas yet detected in the Earth’s atmosphere. That is, it has the highest per molecule radiative forcing of any greenhouse pollutant, and the value of its global warming potential is only exceeded by that of SF\\(_6\\). First, the greenhouse effect is described, the propertie...

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

2015-01-01

We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

Scientific perspectives on greenhouse problem. Part 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jastrow, R.; Nierenberg, W.; Seitz, F.

1992-01-01

The spectre of major climate change caused by the greenhouse effect has generated intensive research, heated scientific debate and a concerted international effort to draft agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This report of Scientific Perspectives on the greenhouse problem explains the technical issues in the debate in language readily understandable to the non-specialist. The inherent complexities of attempts to simulate the earth's climate are explained, particularly with regard to the effects of clouds and the circulation of the oceans, which together represent the largest factors of uncertainty in current global warming forecasts. Results of the search for the 'greenhouse signal' in existing climate records aredescribed in chapter 3 (part two). Chapter 5 (part two) develops a projection of 21st-century warming based on relatively firm evidence of the earth's actual response to known increases in greenhouse gas emissions during the last 100 years

Preparing for the regulation of greenhouse gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ezekiel, R.; Wilson, P.

2001-01-01

The Earth is warming, and this belief is shared by the leading scientists that sit on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where it is expected that the average surface temperature of the Earth will rise 2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit between 1990 and 2100. It is felt that the main culprit is greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1992 with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to specified targets below 1990 levels by 2012. For Canada, this commitment is a reduction to 6 per cent below 1990 levels. To avoid penalizing a country that adopts greenhouse gas regulations where the neighbouring country does not follow, negotiations are being held at the international level in an attempt to keep everyone on a level playing field. The United States recently decided not to pursue a cap on greenhouse gas emissions, which could seriously jeopardize the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. The authors examined what the future looks like, in terms of policy options and market-based instruments. In the next section, they discussed the preparations for the regulation of greenhouse gases. The topics reviewed were carbon taxes, command and control regulation, emissions trading, contracts and baseline protection. Canada's baseline protection initiative (BPI) process was closely examined, and identified what reductions are eligible and touched upon ownership issues. The authors concluded that it might be prudent for emitters in Canada to prepare for a variety of regulatory scenarios, as there are a number of uncertainties remaining. Emissions trading must be carefully documented

Greenhouse gas emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosa, L.P.; Schaeffer, R.

1994-01-01

In a recent paper, Rudd et al. have suggested that, per unit of electrical energy produced, greenhouse-gas emissions from some hydroelectric reservoirs in northern Canada may be comparable to emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants. The purpose of this comment is to elaborate these issues further so as to understand the potential contribution of hydroelectric reservoirs to the greenhouse effect. More than focusing on the total budget of carbon emissions (be they in the form of CH 4 or be they in the form of CO 2 ), this requires an evaluation of the accumulated greenhouse effect of gas emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs and fossil-fuelled power plants. Two issues will be considered: (a) global warming potential (GWP) for CH 4 ; and (b) how greenhouse-gas emissions from hydroelectric power plants stand against emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants with respect to global warming

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

The greenhouse theory and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, W.

1994-01-01

Background information is presented on the theory of the greenhouse effect and its implications for the environment and for government policies. The relationship between climate and atmospheric CO 2 , the major greenhouse gas, is explained. Sources of CO 2 , notably fossil fuel combustion, and sinks (vegetation and oceans) are described. Evidence is presented for an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Irrefutable data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO 2 over 1850-1980 from ca 290 ppM to 345 ppM; other evidence indicates a doubling of atmospheric methane since the eighteenth century. More recent increases have been noted for atmospheric N 2 O and chlorofluorocarbons. The implications of increased atmospheric levels of CO 2 are discussed, and new scientific evidence from Greenland ice-core data is presented which seems to indicate that higher CO 2 concentrations are a result of global warming rather than the cause. Canadian parliamentary action in response to the global warming phenomenon is outlined. A chronology of international efforts in response to global warming is appended. 11 refs

Energy and the greenhouse effect. Answers to 60 questions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Visser, H.; De Wolff, J.J.; Folkert, R.J.M.; Hoekstra, J.; Ruijgrok, W.; Stortelder, B.J.M.; Vosbeek, M.E.J.P.; Ruiter, J.P.

1997-11-01

The aim of this report is to clarify the complex interaction between the greenhouse effect and the energy sector in the Netherlands, focusing on the future of the energy supply and how changes in policies with respect to energy consumption can influence climatic change. The relation between energy sector and greenhouse effect is dealt with on the basis of 60 questions on the greenhouse effect, emission of greenhouse gases and energy scenarios, and concise answers. Calculations of consequences of future scenarios for the climate are executed by means of the KEMA-developed integrated scenario model for climatic change DIALOOG. 27 refs

Greenhouse role in reef stress unproven

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, L.

1991-01-01

In the late 1980s, as coral reefs throughout the Caribbean and elsewhere fell victim to a phenomenon known as bleaching, a few scientists stated that greenhouse warming is upon us and that the exquisitely sensitive corals, reacting to elevated water temperatures, are serving as biological sentinels. This stirred up so much concern that Congress assigned the National Science Foundation (NSF) to investigate the connection between coral bleaching and global warming. Late last month investigators at an NSF-sponsored meeting rendered their verdict. Following the Miami meeting, which brought together, for the first time, climatologists, oceanographers, and meteorologists with marine biologists, ecologists, and other reef experts, the participants issued a statement saying essentially that, yes, higher temperatures seem to be at least partly at fault but, no, greenhouse warming cannot be blamed

Global Warming: How Much and Why?

Science.gov (United States)

Lanouette, William

1990-01-01

Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

Nitrous oxide and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeze, C.

1994-01-01

The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Rinnan, Asmund; Michelsen, Anders; Holopainen, Jarmo K; Rinnan, Riikka

2010-07-01

*Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. *We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. *The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C, while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. *The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects.

The challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bryner, G.C.

1992-01-01

The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

Global Warming: Physics and Facts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

1992-01-01

This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

Is global warming mostly at night?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukla, G.; Quayle, R.G.; Karl, T.

1994-01-01

The release of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to substantial future warming. The global mean temperature has indeed risen in recent decades. The causes of the observed warming, and its relation to the greenhouse gas buildup are, however, still debated. One important aspect of the observed temperature change relates to its asymmetry during the day and night. The day-night temperature difference over land in North America, most of Eurasia, Oceania, and portions of Africa and Australia shows a decrease since about 1950. The changes of the daily mean temperature in these areas are principally due to the rising night or early morning temperature, and are accompanied by increasing cloudiness. Their results support the notion that the increase of cloud cover, possibly due to industrial sulfur emissions, mitigates the greenhouse warming. The causes of the changing diurnal temperature range and of the increasing cloudiness will have to be clarified and the future SO 2 emissions reliably projected before any trustworthy prediction of future climates can be made. 37 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Susan; Daniel, John S; Sanford, Todd J; Murphy, Daniel M; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2010-10-26

Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean.

Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

2014-05-01

Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

Pilot Greenhouse

CERN Multimedia

1983-01-01

This pilot greenhouse was built in collaboration with the "Association des Maraichers" of Geneva in the frame of the study for making use of the heat rejected as warm water by CERN accelerators and experiments. Among other improvements, more automated and precise regulation systems for heating and ventilation were developed. See also 8305598X.

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature

Global warming and the forest fire business in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stocks, B.J.

1991-01-01

The current forest fire situation in Canada is outlined, and an attempt is made to predict the impact of global warming on the forest fire business in Canada. Despite the development of extremely sophisticated provincial and territorial fire management systems, forest fires continue to exert a tremendous influence on the Canadian forest resource. Research into the relationship between climate warming and forest fires has fallen into two categories: the effect of future global warming on fire weather severity, and the current contribution of forest fires to global atmospheric greenhouse gas budgets. A 46% increase in seasonal fire severity across Canada is suggested under a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Approximately 89% of carbon released to the atmosphere by forest fire burning is in the form of carbon dioxide, 9% is carbon monoxide, and the remaining carbon is released as methane or non-methane hydrocarbons. It is estimated that forest fires in northern circumpolar countries contribute from 1-2% of the carbon released globally through biomass burning. Fire may be the agent by which a northerly shift of forest vegetation in Canada occurs. 13 refs., 2 figs

Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

Science.gov (United States)

This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

2012-03-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

Nuclear power and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion accounts for about 40% of the global warming due to the 'greenhouse effect'. Thus national energy policies of the fuels used to generate electricity can have a significant effect on the levels of gas emissions which contribute to the 'greenhouse effect'. The more efficient use of energy is the first way of controlling the increase in gas emissions. The use of natural gas instead of coal or oil would also be beneficial but the reserves of natural gas are limited. The use of nuclear-generated electricity has already reduced the level of global warming by 3% but could have a greater effect in the future. Ways in which the government could reduce 'greenhouse' gas emissions are listed. These include the more extensive use of nuclear power for generating electricity not only for domestic but industrial uses. (U.K.)

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisaveta P. Petkova

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Mingko

1992-01-01

Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

Greenhouse gases emission from municipal waste management: The role of separate collection.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrò, Paolo S

2009-07-01

The municipal solid waste management significantly contributes to the emission in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO(2), CH(4), N(2)O) and therefore the management process from collection to treatment and disposal has to be optimized in order to reduce these emissions. In this paper, starting from the average composition of undifferentiated municipal solid waste in Italy, the effect of separate collection on greenhouse gases emissions from municipal waste management has been assessed. Different combinations of separate collection scenarios and disposal options (i.e. landfilling and incineration) have been considered. The effect of energy recovery from waste both in landfills and incinerators has also been addressed. The results outline how a separate collection approach can have a significant effect on the emission of greenhouse gases and how wise municipal solid waste management, implying the adoption of Best Available Technologies (i.e. biogas recovery and exploitation system in landfills and energy recovery system in Waste to Energy plants), can not only significantly reduce greenhouse gases emissions but, in certain cases, can also make the overall process a carbon sink. Moreover it has been shown that separate collection of plastic is a major issue when dealing with global warming relevant emissions from municipal solid waste management.

Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

Science.gov (United States)

Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

2013-04-06

Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

Global warming and prairie wetlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

1991-01-01

In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-11-15

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

The greenhouse effect and the Arctic ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern

2002-01-01

The impact on the Arctic ice of global warming is important for many people and for the environment. Less ice means changed conditions for the Inuits, hard times for the polar bears and changed conditions for the fishing sector. There is at present some uncertainty about the thickness of the ice and what might be the cause of its oscillation. It was reported a few years ago that the thickness of the ice had almost been reduced by 50 per cent since the 1950s and some researchers suggested that within a few decades the ice would disappear during the summer. These measurements have turned out not to be representative for the whole Arctic region, and it now appears that a great deal of the measured thickness variation can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric circulation. The article discusses the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation in relation to the ice thickness, and climate models. Feedback mechanisms such as reduced albedo may have a big impact in the Arctic in a global greenhouse warming. Model simulations are at variance, and the scenarios for the future are uncertain

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2011-01-15

Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B.; Muris, C.

2011-01-01

Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

Climate change and global warming potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vate, J.F. van de

1996-01-01

Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

Fighting global warming by greenhouse gas removal: destroying atmospheric nitrous oxide thanks to synergies between two breakthrough technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ming, Tingzhen; de Richter, Renaud; Shen, Sheng; Caillol, Sylvain

2016-04-01

Even if humans stop discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, the average global temperature will still increase during this century. A lot of research has been devoted to prevent and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is one of the technologies that might help to limit emissions. In complement, direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere has been proposed after the emissions have occurred. But, the removal of all the excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 will not be enough, due to the fact that CO2 outgases from the ocean as its solubility is dependent of its atmospheric partial pressure. Bringing back the Earth average surface temperature to pre-industrial levels would require the removal of all previously emitted CO2. Thus, the atmospheric removal of other greenhouse gases is necessary. This article proposes a combination of disrupting techniques to transform nitrous oxide (N2O), the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of current radiative forcing, which is harmful for the ozone layer and possesses quite high global warming potential. Although several scientific publications cite "greenhouse gas removal," to our knowledge, it is the first time innovative solutions are proposed to effectively remove N2O or other GHGs from the atmosphere other than CO2.

Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

2013-10-10

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants

How do farm models compare when estimating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy cattle production?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hutchings, Nicholas John; Özkan, Şeyda; de Haan, M

2018-01-01

The European Union Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) will require a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 from the sectors not included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, including agriculture. This will require the estimation of current and future...... from four farm-scale models (DairyWise, FarmAC, HolosNor and SFARMMOD) were calculated for eight dairy farming scenarios within a factorial design consisting of two climates (cool/dry and warm/wet)×two soil types (sandy and clayey)×two feeding systems (grass only and grass/maize). The milk yield per...

The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.

A matter of degrees: A primer on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

A primer on global warming is presented in order to provide information to Canadians on making environmentally responsible decisions. The fundamentals of natural climate change, the atmospheric environment, factors that influence climate, and the greenhouse effect are explained. Global warming is then discussed with reference to paleoclimatic research, the influence of human activity on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and predictions of future climates. The possible impacts of global warming on Canada are described for such sectors as forests, fisheries, agriculture, sea levels, health, energy supply and demand, and the Arctic regions. The actions that citizens and governments can take in order to mitigate or adapt to global warming are then presented. A glossary and index are included. 55 refs., 17 figs

Canada and global warming: Meeting the challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

Canada accounts for ca 2% of total world emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide emissions are by far the largest greenhouse gas source in Canada, primarily from energy consumption. On a per capita basis, Canada ranks second among industrialized countries in terms of energy related carbon dioxide emissions. Canada's northern geography and climate, its export-oriented economy with energy-intensive resource industries, and its relatively small population dispersed over a wide land mass contribute to this high per-capita value. The effects of global warming induced by greenhouse gases are outlined, including a reduction in water supplies, droughts affecting agriculture and forestry, and large-scale thawing of permafrost. A national strategy to respond to global warming has been developed which includes limiting and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing for potential climatic changes, and improving scientific understanding and predictive capabilities with respect to climate change. Details of this strategy are outlined, including provincial and territorial strategies in partnership with the national strategy. 11 figs., 2 tabs

Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence on greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al (1994). The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms agree in their geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern hemisphere. The main reason to this is related to increased tropospheric stability, associated with increased warming at the upper troposphere and changes in the large scale circulation such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The surface winds in the tropics are generally weaker and evaporation is also somewhat reduced, in spite of higher sea surface temperatures. (orig.)

The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

2002-01-01

The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E; Marushchak, Maija E; Lind, Saara E; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J; Biasi, Christina

2017-08-01

Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas. As a result of air warming, the seasonal GHG budget of the vegetated tundra surfaces shifted from a GHG sink of -300 to -198 g CO 2 -eq m -2 to a source of 105 to 144 g CO 2 -eq m -2 . At bare peat surfaces, we observed increased release of all three GHGs. While the positive warming response was dominated by CO 2 , we provide here the first in situ evidence of increasing N 2 O emissions from tundra soils with warming. Warming promoted N 2 O release not only from bare peat, previously identified as a strong N 2 O source, but also from the abundant, vegetated peat surfaces that do not emit N 2 O under present climate. At these surfaces, elevated temperatures had an adverse effect on plant growth, resulting in lower plant N uptake and, consequently, better N availability for soil microbes. Although the warming was limited to the soil surface and did not alter thaw depth, it increased concentrations of DOC, CO 2, and CH 4 in the soil down to the permafrost table. This can be attributed to downward DOC leaching, fueling microbial activity at depth. Taken together, our results emphasize the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and different soil layers, which need to be taken into account when predicting the climate change feedback of the Arctic. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2011-11-15

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5 C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at

Greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lepetit, J.P.

1992-01-01

This book speaks about the growth of greenhouse gases content in the atmosphere and try to forecast the different scenarios which may happen. But, in spite of international cooperation and coordinated research programs, nobody owns the answer. So possible future climatic changes depend on the behavior of the concerned actors. A review of energy policy driven by USA, Japan, Sweden, United Kingdom and Federal Republic of Germany is given. Political management of this file and public opinion in front of greenhouse effect are also described. 7 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

OpenAIRE

Dr. Basanti Jain

2017-01-01

The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, John

2005-01-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

National action strategy on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

A document prepared by a committee of Canadian environmental ministries proposes a strategic framework for a national action plan concerning global warming. The strategy would be carried out jointly by governments and all other sectors of the economy, taking into account the present state of scientific knowledge on global warming. Within this framework, the governments in cooperation with interested parties would take certain measures in their respective areas of competence. The main recommendations of the document include the following. The action strategy should comprise 3 elements: limiting emissions of greenhouse gases; forecasting climatic changes which Canada could undergo due to global warming and preparing for such changes; and improving scientific knowledge and the capacity to predict climatic changes. Limitations on this strategy should take into account such matters as the interaction of greenhouse gases with other pollutants, the importance of the international context, the need to adapt to new discoveries, and the importance of regional differences. Implementation of the strategy should incorporate widespread consultation of all affected sectors, sustained work on establishing international conventions and protocols on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, objectives and schedules for such reductions, and stepwise actions to control emissions in order to enable an adequate evaluation of the consequences and effectiveness of such measures. 10 figs., 2 tabs

Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roshan, G.R.; Ranjbar, F. [Univ. of Tehran (IR). Dept. of Physical Geography; Orosa, J.A. [Univ. of A Coruna (Spain). Dept. of Energy

2010-07-01

In the coming decades, global warming and increase in temperature, in different regions of the world, may change indoor and outdoor thermal comfort conditions and human health. The aim of this research was to study the effects of global warming on thermal comfort conditions in indoor ambiences in Iran. To study the increase in temperature, model for assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change scenario generator compound model has been used together with four scenarios and to estimate thermal comfort conditions, adaptive model of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers has been used. In this study, Iran was divided into 30 zones, outdoor conditions were obtained using meteorological data of 80 climatological stations and changes in neutral comfort conditions in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 were predicted. In accordance with each scenario, findings from this study showed that temperature in the 30 zones will increase by 2100 to between 3.4 C and 5.6 C. In the coming decades and in the 30 studied zones, neutral comfort temperature will increase and be higher and more intense in the central and desert zones of Iran. The low increase in this temperature will be connected to the coastal areas of the Caspian and Oman Sea in southeast Iran. This increase in temperature will be followed by a change in thermal comfort and indoor energy consumption from 8.6 % to 13.1 % in air conditioning systems. As a result, passive methods as thermal inertia are proposed as a possible solution.

Global Warming: Knowledge and Views of Iranian Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taraneh Yazdanparast, Sousan Salehpour, Mohammad Reza Masjedi, Seyed Mohammad Seyedmehdi, Eddie Boyes, Martin Stanisstreet, Mirsaeed Attarchi

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Study of students’ knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students’ knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed “if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter” and “incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming”. 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought “the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide” and “presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect”. 68.4% believed “not using cars so much is a cure for global warming”. While a student’s ‘cognitive score’ could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P0.05. In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students’ mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

Modeling of the climate system and of its response to a greenhouse effect increase; Modelisation du systeme climatique et de sa reponse a une augmentation de l'effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, L [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, 75 - Paris (France)

2005-07-01

The anthropic disturbance of the Earth's greenhouse effect is already visible and will enhance in the coming years or decades. In front of the rapidity and importance of the global warming effect, the socio-economical management of this change will rise problems and must be studied by the scientific community. At the modeling level, finding a direct strategy for the validation of climate models is not easy: many uncertainties exist because energy transformations take place at a low level and several processes take place at the same time. The variability observed at the seasonal, inter-annual or paleo- scales allows to validate the models at the process level but not the evolution of the whole system. The management of these uncertainties is an integral part of the global warming problem. Thus, several scenarios can be proposed and their risk of occurrence must be estimated. This paper presents first the greenhouse effect, the climatic changes during geologic times, the anthropic disturbance of the greenhouse effect, the modeling of climate and the forecasting of its evolution. (J.S.)

Using isotopes for global warming observation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Namata, K.

2002-01-01

This paper, based on a literature review, discusses the main aspects of using isotopic techniques to obtain information about global warming. The rapid increase concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in the atmosphere will result in global warming by the greenhouse effect, and the isotopic techniques constitute an efficient tool to explain this complex environmental phenomenon. (author)

The macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gases: a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boero, Gianna; Clarke, Rosemary; Winters, L.A.

1991-01-01

This is the summary of a major report which provides a survey of existing estimates of the macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). There are broadly speaking two main questions. What are the consequences of global warming for economic activity and welfare? What, if any, are the economic consequences of reducing the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? This survey covers only those studies which quantify the overall (macroeconomic) costs of abating greenhouse gas emissions. It is not concerned with whether any particular degree of abatement is sufficient to reduce global warming, nor whether it is worth undertaking in the light of its benefits. These are topics for other researchers and other papers. Here we are concerned only to map the relationship between economic welfare and GHG abatement. (author)

Global warming: Economic policy responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

1991-01-01

This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

World warms to nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortimer, N.

1989-01-01

The greenhouse effect and global warming is a major environmental issue. The nuclear industry has taken this opportunity to promote itself as providing clean energy without implication in either the greenhouse effect or acid rain. However, it is acknowledged that nuclear power does have its own environment concerns. Two questions are posed -does nuclear power contribute to carbon dioxide emissions and can nuclear power provide a realistic long-term solution to global warming? Although nuclear power stations do not emit carbon dioxide, emissions occur during the manufacture of reactor components, the operation of the nuclear fuel cycle and especially, during the mining and processing of the uranium ore. It is estimated that the supply of high grade ores will last only 23 years, beyond that the carbon dioxide emitted during the processing is estimated to be as great as the carbon dioxide emitted from an coal-fired reactor. Fast breeder reactors are dismissed as unable to provide an answer, so it is concluded that nuclear technology has only a very limited role to play in countering global warming.(UK)

Absorption of Greenhouse Gases in Liquids : A Molecular Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Balaji, S.P.

2015-01-01

The increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming over the past few years. A major portion of the emitted greenhouse gases contains carbon dioxide (CO2). The capture of carbon dioxide from the effluent sources, its transport, and storage has been identified as the

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Nuclear power in the context of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1989-01-01

The paper examines the extent to which nuclear power could help ameliorate the greenhouse problem. Topics discussed include: (1) How serious is the environmental threat posed by the greenhouse effect? (2) How large a part do fossil fuels play in producing greenhouse gases? (3) Is it possible to prevent or abate the anticipated global warming? (4) Can nuclear power play a significant role? (5) What overall approached might best reduce greenhouse emissions? Global cooperativeness in addressing the problem will be essential. 14 refs., 5 tabs

Modeling of the climate system and of its response to a greenhouse effect increase; Modelisation du systeme climatique et de sa reponse a une augmentation de l'effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, L. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, 75 - Paris (France)

2005-07-01

The anthropic disturbance of the Earth's greenhouse effect is already visible and will enhance in the coming years or decades. In front of the rapidity and importance of the global warming effect, the socio-economical management of this change will rise problems and must be studied by the scientific community. At the modeling level, finding a direct strategy for the validation of climate models is not easy: many uncertainties exist because energy transformations take place at a low level and several processes take place at the same time. The variability observed at the seasonal, inter-annual or paleo- scales allows to validate the models at the process level but not the evolution of the whole system. The management of these uncertainties is an integral part of the global warming problem. Thus, several scenarios can be proposed and their risk of occurrence must be estimated. This paper presents first the greenhouse effect, the climatic changes during geologic times, the anthropic disturbance of the greenhouse effect, the modeling of climate and the forecasting of its evolution. (J.S.)

Sensitivity of direct global warming potentials to key uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weubbles, D.J.; Jain, A.K.; Palten, K.O.; Grant, K.E.

1995-01-01

The concept of global warming potential was developed as a relative measure of the potential effects on climate of a greenhouse gas. In this paper a series of sensitivity studies examines several uncertainties in determination of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs). The original evaluation of GWPs did not attempt to account for the possible sinks of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that could balance the carbon cycle and produce atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 that match observations. In this study, a balanced carbon cycle model is applied in calculation of the radiative forcing from CO 2 . Use of the balanced model produces up to 21% enhancement of the GWPs for most trace gases compared with the IPCC (1990) values for time horizons up to 100 years, but a decreasing enhancement with longer time horizons. Uncertainty limits of the fertilization feedback parameter contribute a 20% range in GWP values. Another systematic uncertainty in GWPs is the assumption of an equilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases remains constant) versus a disequilibrium atmosphere (one in which the concentration of trace gases varies with time). The latter gives GWPs that are 19 to 32% greater than the former for a 100 year time horizons, depending upon the carbon dioxide emission scenario chosen. Five scenarios are employed: constant-concentration, constant-emission past 1990 and the three IPCC (1992) emission scenarios. For the analysis of uncertainties in atmospheric lifetime (tor) of the GWP changes in direct proportion to (tor) for short-lived gases, but to a lesser extent for gases with (tor) greater than the time horizontal for the GWP calculation. 40 refs., 7 figs., 13 tabs

Global greenhouse and energy situation and outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, R.W.; Clively, S.R.; Tilley, J.W.

1990-01-01

Fossil fuels provide the basis for world energy usage and, in the absence of fundamental policy changes, are expected to continue to do so for the next few decades. However, the prospect of global warming due to the greenhouse effect will have profound implications for the use of energy. This paper outlines the current situation and trends in world energy use, with a focus on energy requirements by region and fuel. Implications for greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse policy challenges are also discussed. 8 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Exploring the Greenhouse Effect through Physics-Oriented Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Kerry P.; Laws, Priscilla W.

2003-01-01

We are developing a new activity-based unit on global warming and the environment as part of the "Explorations in Physics Curriculum." We describe the current status of this unit, which focuses on helping students understand the greenhouse effect and its relationship to global warming. We outline several problems encountered in testing the unit…

Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Flanner, M. G.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Krinner, G.

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.

Rapid and extensive warming following cessation of solar radiation management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCusker, Kelly E; Armour, Kyle C; Bitz, Cecilia M; Battisti, David S

2014-01-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to alleviate the climate impacts of ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, its efficacy depends on its indefinite maintenance, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure or global cooperation breakdown. Here, we consider the scenario in which SRM—via stratospheric aerosol injection—is terminated abruptly following an implementation period during which anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued. We show that upon cessation of SRM, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside 20th century climate variability bounds. Global mean precipitation also increases rapidly following cessation, however spatial patterns are less coherent than temperature, with almost half of land areas experiencing drying trends. We further show that the rate of warming—of critical importance for ecological and human systems—is principally controlled by background GHG levels. Thus, a risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent to the large-scale implementation of SRM, and can be diminished only through concurrent strong reductions in anthropogenic GHG emissions. (paper)

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Otterman, Jay; Angell, J.; Atlas, Robert; Bungato, D.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Susskind, J.; Wu, M.-L. C.

2001-01-01

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface skin temperature are observed over central Europe: we observe a difference of 9.8 K comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996 for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average Ina for February 1990 was 10.6 in s(exp -1), but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m s(exp -1). A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions result, which we observe in February 1990 at 700 mb. The near-surface moisture rises to higher (and cooler) levels, producing clouds and precipitation. Total preciptable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios can be translated into a virtual irradiating source of 2.6 W m(exp -2) above the February 1990 atmosphere, which, as an order of magnitude estimate, contributes to the warming of the surface by 2.6 K. If we accept this estimate as numerically pertinent, the direct effect stands as 7.2 K (9.8 K - 2.6 K), and therefore its greenhouse-effect reinforcement is by 36%. This constitutes a substantial positive feedback to the direct effect, which is the inflow of warm air to the low troposphere over Europe.

Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980

Science.gov (United States)

Lacis, A.; Hansen, J.; Lee, P.; Lebedeff, S.; Mitchell, T.

1981-01-01

Increased abundances were measured for several trace atmospheric gases in the decade 1970-1980. The equilibrium greenhouse warming for the measured increments of CH4, chlorofluorocarbons and N2O is between 50% and 100% of the equilibrium warming for the measured increase of atmospheric CO2 during the same 10 years. The combined warming of CO2 and trace gases should exceed natural global temperature variability in the 1980's and cause the global mean temperature to rise above the maximum of the late 1930's.

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

Three Smoking Guns Prove Falsity of Green house Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Fong, P.

2001-12-01

Three observed facts: 1, the cloud coverage increased 4.1% in 50 years; 2. the precipitation increased 7.8% in 100 years; 3. the two rates are the same. {Interpretation}. 1, By the increased albedo of the clouds heat dissipation is increased 3.98 W/m2 by 2XCO2 time, canceling out greenhouse warming of 4 W/m{2}. Thus no global warming. 2, The precipitation increase show the increased release of latent heat of vaporization, which turns out to be equal to that absorbed by ocean due to increased evaporation by the greenhouse forcing. This all greenhouse heat is used up in evaporation and the warming of the earth is zero. 3, The identity of the two rates double-checked the two independent proofs. Therefore experimentally no greenhouse warming is triply proved. A new branch of science Pleistocene Climatology is developed to study the theoretical origin of no greenhouse warming. Climatology, like mechanics of a large number of particles, is of course complex and unwieldy. If totally order-less then there is no hope. However, if some regularity appears, then a systematic treatment can be done to simplify the complexity. The rigid bodies are subjected to a special simplifying condition (the distances between all particles are constant) and only 6 degrees of freedom are significant, all others are sidetracked. To study the spinning top there is no need to study the dynamics of every particle of the top by Newton's laws through super-computer. It only needs to solve the Euler equations without computer. In climate study the use of super-computer to study all degrees of freedom of the climate is as untenable as the study of the spinning top by super-computer. Yet in spite of the complexity there is strict regularity as seen in the ice ages, which works as the simplifying conditions to establish a new science Pleistocene climatology. See my book Greenhouse Warming and Nuclear Hazards just published (www.PeterFongBook.com). This time the special condition is the presence of a

Ideas of Elementary Students about Reducing the "Greenhouse Effect."

Science.gov (United States)

Francis, Claire; And Others

1993-01-01

Presents the results of a questionnaire given to 563 elementary students to study their ideas of actions that would reduce the greenhouse effect. Most of the children (87%) appreciated that planting trees would help reduce global warming. During interviews it was discovered that children were confused between the greenhouse effect and ozone layer…

The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland von Glasow

2010-12-01

Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

Greenhouse gases reduction potential through consumer’s behavioral changes in terms of food-related product selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshikawa, Naoki; Fujiwara, Natsumi; Nagata, Junko; Amano, Koji

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction potential by shopping behavior change is analyzed. • Four scenarios related to food consumption is evaluated using life cycle assessment. • Total GHG reduction potential by four scenarios in Japan is 1367 kt-CO_2/year. • Potential reduces to 45% when considering feasible ratio of taking behavior change. • Contribution of seasonal production/consumption scenario is highest among scenarios. - Abstract: Sustainable consumption plays an important role in the mitigation of global warming and the conservation of energy. Promoting more environmentally responsible consumer behavior, especially through open communication between stakeholders, is one way to achieve low-carbon consumption. This study evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through behavioral transformation of consumers in terms of their daily shopping habits. In this context, the behavioral transformative actions pertain to certain foods and daily necessities, and are analyzed from a life cycle assessment perspective. We developed multiple product-selection scenarios to evaluate GHG emissions related to the daily purchase of commodities. Based on the life cycle assessment, we estimated the GHG emissions that result from the production and distribution of these commodities, pertaining to both the current product selection and to a possibly improved selection. The results of our study show that because of seasonal consumption patterns and energy conversion, there is a substantial potential to reduce GHG emissions resulting from out-of-season produce cultivation. The GHG reduction potential is not high for each individual commodity because diverse commodities are needed on a daily basis. However, various actions in combination could have substantial potential for reducing emissions.

Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lestari, R Kartika; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D; Takemura, Toshihiko

2014-01-01

Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ∼25% increase in severe drought events from 1951–2000 to 2001–2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention. (letter)

Short-term climatic fluctuations and the interpretation of recent observations in terms of greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.

1999-01-01

Simulations of future climate made with coupled general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean predict that the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere by man's activities will have a large influence on the climate of the next century. The identification of the climatic impact produced by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last decades is made difficult by strong inter-annual climate variability, and requires the application of statistical techniques combining several climatic indicators (method of climatic 'fingerprints') so as to improve the detection of a possible anthropogenic perturbation. In this paper we review the evolution through the last decades of several climate indicators showing global warming, its geographical distribution, sea level, the hydrological cycle and the response of vegetation, and we compare them to the model results predicted in climate scenarios. The coherence between model results and observed climatic trends shows that the additional greenhouse effect is starting to become detectable in recent climatic data. (authors)

Policy and Environmental Implications of Photovoltaic Systems in Farming in Southeast Spain: Can Greenhouses Reduce the Greenhouse Effect?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angel Carreño-Ortega

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Solar photovoltaic (PV systems have grown in popularity in the farming sector, primarily because land area and farm structures themselves, such as greenhouses, can be exploited for this purpose, and, moreover, because farms tend to be located in rural areas far from energy production plants. In Spain, despite being a country with enormous potential for this renewable energy source, little is being done to exploit it, and policies of recent years have even restricted its implementation. These factors constitute an obstacle, both for achieving environmental commitments and for socioeconomic development. This study proposes the installation of PV systems on greenhouses in southeast Spain, the location with the highest concentration of greenhouses in Europe. Following a sensitivity analysis, it is estimated that the utilization of this technology in the self-consumption scenario at farm level produces increased profitability for farms, which can range from 0.88% (worst scenario to 52.78% (most favorable scenario. Regarding the Spanish environmental policy, the results obtained demonstrate that the impact of applying this technology mounted on greenhouses would bring the country 38% closer to reaching the 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG target. Furthermore, it would make it possible to nearly achieve the official commitment of 20% renewable energies by 2020. Additionally, it would have considerable effects on the regional socioeconomy, with increases in job creation and contribution to gross domestic product (GDP/R&D (Research and Development, allowing greater profitability in agrifood activities throughout the entire region.

An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

2003-01-01

The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

Nuclear power and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donaldson, D; Tolland, H.; Grimston, M.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect is first explained. The evidence is shown in global warming and changing weather patterns which are generally believed to be due to the emission of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. Serious consequences are predicted if emission of the greenhouse gases is not reduced. Sources of these gases are identified - agriculture, carbon fluorocarbons, coal-fired power stations, vehicle exhausts. The need is to use energy more efficiently but such measures as combined heat and power stations, more fuel efficient cars and better thermal insulation in homes is advocated. The expansion of renewable energy sources such as wind and water power is also suggested. Nuclear power is promoted as it reduces the carbon dioxide emissions and in both the short and long-term will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. (author)

Greenhouse effect and its climatic consequences: scientific evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

The greenhouse effect plays a major role in climate evolution and the increase observed at present in the concentration of the main gases causing the greenhouse effect (carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane) stems very definitely from human activities. The global warming potential by the various greenhouse effect gases is calculated through restrictive hypotheses. An essential element in the importance given to the growth of the greenhouse effect phenomena was the regular rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The overall carbon cycle balance still needs to be worked out. The aerosols caused by sulfurous releases have grown. The decrease in the amount of ozone in the stratosphere brings on a slight cooling of the surface of the Earth. The local increase of tropospheric ozone brings on a slight local warming with a comparable order of magnitude. Despite all the progress that has been achieved in modelling the phenomena, we cannot affirm today that these predictions are accurate. Recent work involving analyses of the polar ice-caps along with other indications of past climates have given a better understanding of the North Atlantic climate over the past 200,000 years. 119 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

Environmental policy and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weenink, J.B.

1993-01-01

Emissions, resulting from human activity, are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This is causing an additional average warming of the Earth's surface. This article presents an overview of recent developments in the international discussion on climate change, taking into account the work of other organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long term and global character of the climate change problem requires an international long term strategy based on internationally agreed principles such as sustainable development and the precautionary principle. Research is needed to further develop risk assessment and environmental quality standards, from which emission targets can be derived. As a first step, governments of many industrialized countries have already set provisional national CO 2 emission targets, aimed at stabilization at present levels by the year 2000 and in some cases, reductions thereafter. Under the auspices of United Nations, negotiations have begun on an international framework climate convention and associated agreements, on, for example, greenhouse gas emissions, forestry and funding mechanisms. Obligations imposed on individual nations may be expected to reflect their responsibility for greenhouse warming; this paper presents some views on the equity of burden sharing. 17 refs., 5 tabs

Modeling of municipal greenhouse gas emissions. Calculation of greenhouse gas emissions and the reduction possibilities of Dutch municipalities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vries de, Willem

2011-01-01

Summary Municipalities represent an active governmental layer in the Netherlands. They often have ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this way the municipalities take responsibility to reduce the threat of global warming. To implement effect

Coal and the greenhouse effect: strategies for the future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, K M [Australian Coal Association, Sydney, NSW (Australia)

1991-07-01

A number of gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons are transparent to incoming short-wave radiation, but are relatively opaque to outgoing longwave radiation. Variations in the concentration of these gases in the troposphere can alter the thermal balance of the earth's atmosphere. Outgoing terrestrial radiation which would otherwise escape to space, is trapped within the inner layer of the atmosphere, resulting in a potential warming and the greenhouse effect. It is estimated that at present greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, contribute about 50% to the greenhouse effect. However, in the future, the contribution made by gases other than CO{sub 2} will be become greater. Greenhouse gases arise from a wide range of sources and their escalating increase is largely related to an increase in the world's population, and the standard of living of many areas as well as changes in lifestyle. The effect of increasing man-made greenhouse gases in the troposphere is unknown, but it is proposed that it may increase temperature and may modify climate, agricultural response and land use. The facts and uncertainties relating to potential greenhouse warming are examined. Man-generated emissions are quantified and their source identified. Coal's contribution worldwide is examined in detail and is shown to be small, being about 10% of man-made greenhouse gases. Strategies for minimising emissions, having maximum potential for reduction, with minimum impact on man are suggested. 16 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

Nordic regionalisation of a greenhouse-gas stabilisation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wyser, Klaus; Rummukainen, Markku; Strandberg, Gustav

2006-10-15

The impact of a CO{sub 2} stabilisation on the Swedish climate is investigated with the regional climate model RCA3 driven by boundary conditions obtained from a global coupled climate system model (CCSM3). The global model has been forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations from pre-industrial conditions until today's, and with an idealised further increase until the stabilisation level is reached. After stabilisation the model integration continues for another 150+ years in order to follow the delayed response of the climate system over a period of time. Results from the global and regional climate model are compared against observations and ECMWF reanalysis for 1961-1990. For this period, the global model is found to be too cold over Europe and with a zonal flow from the North Atlantic towards Europe that is too strong. The climate of the driving global model controls the climate of the regional model and the same deviations from one are thus inherited by the other. We therefore analyse the relative climate changes differences, or ratios, of climate variables between future's and today's climate. Compared to pre-industrial conditions, the global mean temperature changes by about 1.5 deg C as a result of the stabilisation at 450 ppmv equivalent CO{sub 2}. Averaged over Europe, the temperature change is slightly larger, and it is even larger for Sweden and Northern Europe. Annual mean precipitation for Europe is unaffected, but Sweden receives more precipitation under higher CO{sub 2} levels. The inter-annual and decadal variability of annual mean temperature and precipitation does not change with any significant degree. The changes in temperature and precipitation are not evenly distributed with the season: the largest warming and increased precipitation in Northern Europe occurs during winter months while the summer climate remains more or less unchanged. The opposite is true for the Mediterranean region where the precipitation decreases

"Home Made" Model to Study the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

2011-01-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of…

Greenhouse Earth: A Traveling Exhibition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, W.H.; Caesar, S.

1992-09-01

The Franklin Institute Science Museum provided an exhibit entitled the Greenhouse Earth: A Traveling Exhibition. This 3500 square-foot exhibit on global climate change was developed in collaboration with the Association of Science-Technology Centers. The exhibit opened at The Franklin Institute on February 14, 1992, welcoming 291,000 visitors over its three-month stay. During its three-year tour, Greenhouse Earth will travel to ten US cities, reaching two million visitors. Greenhouse Earth aims to deepen public understanding of the scientific issues of global warming and the conservation measures that can be taken to slow its effects. The exhibit features hands-on exhibitry, interactive computer programs and videos, a theater production, a ''demonstration cart,'' guided tours, and lectures. supplemental educational programs at the Institute included a teachers preview, a symposium on climate change, and a ''satellite field trip.'' The development of Greenhouse Earth included front-end and formative evaluation procedures. Evaluation includes interviews with visitors, prototypes, and summative surveys for participating museums. During its stay in Philadelphia, Greenhouse Earth was covered by the local and national press, with reviews in print and broadcast media. Greenhouse Earth is the first large-scale museum exhibit to address global climate change

Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

1998-12-31

This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

1999-12-31

This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

2012-01-01

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delarue, Erik; Lamberts, Hans; D'haeseleer, William

2007-01-01

Due to the growing concern for global warming, the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005-2007), part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points, the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario, electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario

Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

1994-01-01

The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

The relative greenhouse gas impacts of realistic dietary choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berners-Lee, M.; Hoolohan, C.; Cammack, H.; Hewitt, C.N.

2012-01-01

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in 61 different categories of food are used, with information on the diet of different groups of the population (omnivorous, vegetarian and vegan), to calculate the embodied GHG emissions in different dietary scenarios. We calculate that the embodied GHG content of the current UK food supply is 7.4 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 , or 2.7 t CO 2 e person −1 y −1 . This gives total food-related GHG emissions of 167 Mt CO 2 e (1 Mt=10 6 metric tonnes; CO 2 e being the mass of CO 2 that would have the same global warming potential, when measured over 100 years, as a given mixture of greenhouse gases) for the entire UK population in 2009. This is 27% of total direct GHG emissions in the UK, or 19% of total GHG emissions from the UK, including those embodied in goods produced abroad. We calculate that potential GHG savings of 22% and 26% can be made by changing from the current UK-average diet to a vegetarian or vegan diet, respectively. Taking the average GHG saving from six vegetarian or vegan dietary scenarios compared with the current UK-average diet gives a potential national GHG saving of 40 Mt CO 2 e y −1 . This is equivalent to a 50% reduction in current exhaust pipe emissions from the entire UK passenger car fleet. Hence realistic choices about diet can make substantial differences to embodied GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► We calculate the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in different diets. ► The embodied GHG content of the current UK food supply is 7.4 kg CO 2 e person −1 day −1 . ► Changing to a vegetarian or vegan diet reduces GHG emissions by 22–26%. ► Changing to a vegetarian or vegan diet would reduce UK GHG emissions by 40 Mt CO 2 e y −1 .

Roadside management strategies to reduce greenhouse gases.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

Californias Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32), Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act : (SB 375), and Executive Order S-14-08 direct Caltrans to develop actions to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs). Air : pollution reduction is...

The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methods on greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Batool, Syeda Adila; Chuadhry, Muhammad Nawaz

2009-01-01

The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclables with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO2 equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH4) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO2 equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO2 equivalents of -33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO2 equivalents compared to the baseline scenario.

The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methods on greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore, Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batool, Syeda Adila; Chuadhry, Muhammad Nawaz

2009-01-01

The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84 kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclables with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO 2 equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH 4 ) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO 2 equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO 2 equivalents of -33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO 2 equivalents compared to the baseline scenario

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Recycling of metals: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Damgaard, Anders; Larsen, Anna W; Christensen, Thomas H

2009-11-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of metals in post-consumer waste are assessed from a waste management perspective; here the material recovery facility (MRF), for the sorting of the recovered metal. The GHG accounting includes indirect upstream emissions, direct activities at the MRF as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of reprocessing of the metal scrap and savings in terms of avoided production of virgin metal. The global warming factor (GWF) shows that upstream activities and the MRF causes negligible GHG emissions (12.8 to 52.6 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) recovered metal) compared to the reprocessing of the metal itself (360-1260 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of recovered aluminium and 400- 1020 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(- 1) of recovered steel).The reprocessing is however counterbalanced by large savings of avoided virgin production of steel and aluminium. The net downstream savings were found to be 5040-19 340 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated aluminium and 560-2360 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated steel. Due to the huge differences in reported data it is hard to compare general data on the recovery of metal scrap as they are very dependent on the technology and data choices. Furthermore, the energy used in both the recovery process as well as the avoided primary production is crucial. The range of avoided impact shows that recovery of metals will always be beneficial over primary production, due to the high energy savings, and that the GHG emissions associated with the sorting of metals are negligible.

A Simple Experiment to Demonstrate the Effects of Greenhouse Gases

Science.gov (United States)

Keating, C. F.

2007-01-01

The role of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere is the subject of considerable discussion and debate. Global warming is well-documented, as is the continually increasing amount of greenhouse gases that human activity puts in the air. Is there a relationship between the two? The simple experiment described in this paper provides a good demonstration…

The greenhouse effect gases; Les gaz a effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-06-15

This road-map proposes by the Group Total aims to inform the public on the greenhouse effect gases. It presents the greenhouses effect as a key component of the climate system, the impacts of the human activity, the foreseeable consequences of global warming, the Kyoto protocol and Total commitment in the domain. (A.L.B.)

California's Snow Gun and its implications for mass balance predictions under greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Howat, I.; Snyder, M.; Tulaczyk, S.; Sloan, L.

2003-12-01

Precipitation has received limited treatment in glacier and snowpack mass balance models, largely due to the poor resolution and confidence of precipitation predictions relative to temperature predictions derived from atmospheric models. Most snow and glacier mass balance models rely on statistical or lapse rate-based downscaling of general or regional circulation models (GCM's and RCM's), essentially decoupling sub-grid scale, orographically-driven evolution of atmospheric heat and moisture. Such models invariably predict large losses in the snow and ice volume under greenhouse warming. However, positive trends in the mass balance of glaciers in some warming maritime climates, as well as at high elevations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, suggest that increased precipitation may play an important role in snow- and glacier-climate interactions. Here, we present a half century of April snowpack data from the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains of California, USA. This high-density network of snow-course data indicates that a gain in winter snow accumulation at higher elevations has compensated loss in snow volume at lower elevations by over 50% and has led to glacier expansion on Mt. Shasta. These trends are concurrent with a region-wide increase in winter temperatures up to 2° C. They result from the orographic lifting and saturation of warmer, more humid air leading to increased precipitation at higher elevations. Previous studies have invoked such a "Snow Gun" effect to explain contemporaneous records of Tertiary ocean warming and rapid glacial expansion. A climatological context of the California's "snow gun" effect is elucidated by correlation between the elevation distribution of April SWE observations and the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation, both controlling the heat and moisture delivered to the U.S. Pacific coast. The existence of a significant "Snow Gun" effect presents two challenges to snow and glacier mass

Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

2017-12-01

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

Climate warming: answering some basic questions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jancovici, J.M.

2009-01-01

Illustrated by many graphs, drawings, figures and tables, this long publication offers a detailed overview of the physical aspects of climatic change (definition of the greenhouse effect, explanation and assessment of warming, relationship and differences between greenhouse effect and ozone depletion, between climate change and greenhouse effect induced by human activity, and between meteorology and climate) and states some generalities on greenhouse effect gases. The author then discusses prospective issues on climatic change (notion of average temperature, role and liability of climate models, evolutions of temperatures and precipitations in different places, influence of greenhouse gas reduction), the various risks associated with climatic change (changes of sea currents, impact on ecosystems, diseases, ozone depletion, geographical differences, threat from methane hydrate). After a presentation of the carbon cycle, the next chapters are discussing the scientific discourses, the assessment of greenhouse effect in our everyday life, the impact of possible collective and individual actions, the relationship between greenhouse effect and economy, and strategic choices in France on airports and on nuclear energy

The Peculiar Negative Greenhouse Effect Over Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Sejas, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Cai, M.

2017-12-01

Greenhouse gases warm the climate system by reducing the energy loss to space through the greenhouse effect. Thus, a common way to measure the strength of the greenhouse effect is by taking the difference between the surface longwave (LW) emission and the outgoing LW radiation. Based on this definition, a paradoxical negative greenhouse effect is found over the Antarctic Plateau, which suprisingly indicates that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space. Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the greenhouse effect varies seasonally and spectrally. A previous explanation attributes the negative greenhouse effect solely to stratospheric CO2 and warmer than surface stratospheric temperatures. However, we surprisingly find that the negative greenhouse effect is predominantly caused by tropospheric water vapor. A novel principle-based explanation provides the first complete account of the Antarctic Plateau's negative greenhouse effect indicating that it is controlled by the vertical variation of temperature and greenhouse gas absorption strength. Our findings indicate that the strong surface-based temperature inversion and scarcity of free tropospheric water vapor over the Antarctic Plateau cause the negative greenhouse effect. These are climatological features uniquely found in the Antarctic Plateau region, explaining why the greenhouse effect is positive everywhere else.

Priority setting of strategies and mechanisms for limiting global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, S.J.L.

1994-01-01

Scientific communities have reached a consensus that increases of greenhouse gas emission will result in climatic warming and sea level rises despite existing uncertainties. Major uncertainties include the sensitivities of climate changes in terms of timing, magnitude, and scales of regional changes. Socioeconomic uncertainties encompass population and economic growth, changes in technology, future reliance on fossil fuel, and policies compiled to stabilize the global warming. Moreover, increase in world population coupled with limited resources will increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and social systems. Global warming has become an international concern since the destinies of all nations are closely interwoven by this issue and how nations deal with it. Appropriate strategies and mechanisms are need to slow down the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Questionnaires were sent to 150 experts in 30 countries to evaluate such strategies and mechanisms for dealing with global warming, from both the domestic and international perspectives. This paper will focus primarily on strategy selection

The effects of rape residue mulching on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from no-tillage paddy fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-Sheng; Cao, Cou-Gui; Guo, Li-Jin; Li, Cheng-Fang

2014-01-01

A field experiment was conducted to provide a complete greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for global warming potential (GWP), net GWP, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) from no-tillage (NT) paddy fields with different amounts of oilseed rape residue mulch (0, 3000, 4000, and 6000 kg dry matter (DM) ha(-1)) during a rice-growing season after 3 years of oilseed rape-rice cultivation. Residue mulching treatments showed significantly more organic carbon (C) density for the 0-20 cm soil layer at harvesting than no residue treatment. During a rice-growing season, residue mulching treatments sequestered significantly more organic C from 687 kg C ha(-1) season(-1) to 1654 kg C ha(-1) season(-1) than no residue treatment. Residue mulching significantly increased emissions of CO2 and N2O but decreased CH4 emissions. Residue mulching treatments significantly increased GWP by 9-30% but significantly decreased net GWP by 33-71% and GHGI by 35-72% relative to no residue treatment. These results suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be achieved simultaneously by residue mulching on NT paddy fields in central China.

Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

2012-01-01

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

Thermography and Sonic Anemometry to Analyze Air Heaters in Mediterranean Greenhouses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Araceli Peña

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The present work has developed a methodology based on thermography and sonic anemometry for studying the microclimate in Mediterranean greenhouses equipped with air heaters and polyethylene distribution ducts to distribute the warm air. Sonic anemometry allows us to identify the airflow pattern generated by the heaters and to analyze the temperature distribution inside the greenhouse, while thermography provides accurate crop temperature data. Air distribution by means of perforated polyethylene ducts at ground level, widely used in Mediterranean-type greenhouses, can generate heterogeneous temperature distributions inside the greenhouse when the system is not correctly designed. The system analyzed in this work used a polyethylene duct with a row of hot air outlet holes (all of equal diameter that expel warm air toward the ground to avoid plant damage. We have observed that this design (the most widely used in Almería’s greenhouses produces stagnation of hot air in the highest part of the structure, reducing the heating of the crop zone. Using 88 kW heating power (146.7 W∙m−2 the temperature inside the greenhouse is maintained 7.2 to 11.2 °C above the outside temperature. The crop temperature (17.6 to 19.9 °C was maintained above the minimum recommended value of 10 °C.

Thermography and sonic anemometry to analyze air heaters in Mediterranean greenhouses.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Alejandro; Valera, Diego L; Molina-Aiz, Francisco; Peña, Araceli

2012-10-16

The present work has developed a methodology based on thermography and sonic anemometry for studying the microclimate in Mediterranean greenhouses equipped with air heaters and polyethylene distribution ducts to distribute the warm air. Sonic anemometry allows us to identify the airflow pattern generated by the heaters and to analyze the temperature distribution inside the greenhouse, while thermography provides accurate crop temperature data. Air distribution by means of perforated polyethylene ducts at ground level, widely used in Mediterranean-type greenhouses, can generate heterogeneous temperature distributions inside the greenhouse when the system is not correctly designed. The system analyzed in this work used a polyethylene duct with a row of hot air outlet holes (all of equal diameter) that expel warm air toward the ground to avoid plant damage. We have observed that this design (the most widely used in Almería's greenhouses) produces stagnation of hot air in the highest part of the structure, reducing the heating of the crop zone. Using 88 kW heating power (146.7 W ∙ m(-2)) the temperature inside the greenhouse is maintained 7.2 to 11.2 °C above the outside temperature. The crop temperature (17.6 to 19.9 °C) was maintained above the minimum recommended value of 10 °C.

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States, 1985--1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Earth's capacity to support life depends on the moderating influences of gases that envelop the planet and warm its surface and protect it from harmful radiation. These gases are referred to as ''greenhouse gases.'' Their warming capacity, called ''the greenhouse effect,'' is essential to maintaining a climate hospitable to all plant, animal, and human life. In recent years, however, there has been increasing concern that human activity may be affecting the intricate balance between the Earth's absorption of heat from the sun and its capacity to reradiate excess heat back into space. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities may be an important mechanism that affects global climate. Thus, research is intensifying to improve our understanding of the role human activities might play in influencing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. On the basis of scientific findings of the past few decades, the US Government and the international community at large are now taking steps toward stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions. This report contributes to that process. Mandated by Congress this report provides estimates of US emissions of the principal greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorcarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds. Estimates are for the period 1985 to 1990. Preliminary estimates for 1991 have also been included, whenever data were available

Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States, 1985--1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-11-10

The Earth`s capacity to support life depends on the moderating influences of gases that envelop the planet and warm its surface and protect it from harmful radiation. These gases are referred to as ``greenhouse gases.`` Their warming capacity, called ``the greenhouse effect,`` is essential to maintaining a climate hospitable to all plant, animal, and human life. In recent years, however, there has been increasing concern that human activity may be affecting the intricate balance between the Earth`s absorption of heat from the sun and its capacity to reradiate excess heat back into space. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities may be an important mechanism that affects global climate. Thus, research is intensifying to improve our understanding of the role human activities might play in influencing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. On the basis of scientific findings of the past few decades, the US Government and the international community at large are now taking steps toward stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions. This report contributes to that process. Mandated by Congress this report provides estimates of US emissions of the principal greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorcarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds. Estimates are for the period 1985 to 1990. Preliminary estimates for 1991 have also been included, whenever data were available.

Energy utilization and greenhouse-gas emissions: Transportation sector, topical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darrow, K.G.

1992-06-01

The objective of the report is to compare the emissions of greenhouse gases for alternative end-use technologies in the transportation sector. Scientists assert that global warming is occurring and will continue to occur as a result of increasing concentrations of certain gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the focus of this analysis because they are believed to cause three-fourths of the global warming effect and because energy production and use are a significant source of these emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector occur during energy production, conversion, transportation and end-use. This analysis compares alternative transportation sector fuel/technology choices in terms of their total fuel-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases. The emphasis of this report is on the end use comparison. The fuel-cycle emissions comparison was developed in a companion report

Refrigeration and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

2018-03-01

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

Recent data concerning contribution of various greenhouse effect gas sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambert, G.

1991-01-01

The greenhouse effect contributes to a +33 degrees C warming of the earth atmosphere (mean temperature of +15 deg C instead of -18 deg C without any greenhouse effect). The roles of water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane in greenhouse effect are discussed; the CH 4 raise seems to be due to rice cultivation and cattle farming; the CO 2 raise is mainly due oil, coal and natural gas burning. Greenhouse gas increase will cause a 2 to 4 deg C increase of the earth mean temperature but the anthropogenous causes will be obviously seen only during the next century

Composting and compost utilization: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Boldrin, Alessio; Andersen, Jacob K; Møller, Jacob; Christensen, Thomas H; Favoino, Enzo

2009-11-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to composting of organic waste and the use of compost were assessed from a waste management perspective. The GHG accounting for composting includes use of electricity and fuels, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from the composting process, and savings obtained by the use of the compost. The GHG account depends on waste type and composition (kitchen organics, garden waste), technology type (open systems, closed systems, home composting), the efficiency of off-gas cleaning at enclosed composting systems, and the use of the compost. The latter is an important issue and is related to the long-term binding of carbon in the soil, to related effects in terms of soil improvement and to what the compost substitutes; this could be fertilizer and peat for soil improvement or for growth media production. The overall global warming factor (GWF) for composting therefore varies between significant savings (-900 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wet waste (ww)) and a net load (300 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne( -1) ww). The major savings are obtained by use of compost as a substitute for peat in the production of growth media. However, it may be difficult for a specific composting plant to document how the compost is used and what it actually substitutes for. Two cases representing various technologies were assessed showing how GHG accounting can be done when specific information and data are available.

Environmental policy: Meeting the challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gotzaman, P.

1990-01-01

The Canadian government's overall approach to resolving the environmental problems due to global warming is discussed, with reference to how this approach is related to actions taken by other countries. Canada's environmental strategy is based the need to correct the failure to take into account the environmental consequences of daily actions. One element seen necessary for such correction, better environmental decisionmaking, is underlain by such key factors as the need to provide a strong scientific base on which to make decisions, resolving uncertainties regarding the greenhouse effect, and an environmentally educated population. Direct governmental measures can be taken to factor environmental considerations into decisions, such as regulatory instruments regarding the environment and economic incentives to encourage taking the environment into account. With respect to global warming, Canada has signed the Hague Declaration on international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. About half the annual world emissions of greenhouse gases come from fossil fuel combustion. Canada is the fourth largest producer per capita of the single most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The transport and industrial sectors each account for ca 25% of Canada's CO 2 emissions, and energy conservation is seen as a first step in reducing these emissions. The greatest scope for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector appears to lie in the development of convenient and economic alternate fuels

Laboratory evaluation of warm mix asphalt.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-14

"Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has been traditionally produced at a discharge temperature of between : 280F (138C) and 320 F (160C), resulting in high energy (fuel) costs and generation of greenhouse : gases. The goal for Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is to...

Warming Early Mars by Impact Degassing of Reduced Greenhouse Gases

Science.gov (United States)

Haberle, R. M.; Zahnle, K.; Barlow, N. G.

2018-01-01

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form collision induced absorptions (CIA) involving H2 and/or CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power in a predominately CO2 atmosphere to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. Surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level for CIA to be effective. Atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2- 10% H2 can sustain surface environments favorable for liquid water. Smaller concentrations of H2 are sufficient if CH4 is also present. If thick CO2 atmospheres with percent level concentrations of reduced gases are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox for Mars, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks. In this paper we focus on impact delivered reduced gases.

An experimental evaluation of the greenhouse effect in the substitution of R134a with CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aprea, C.; Greco, A.; Maiorino, A.

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of R314a substitution with a natural refrigerant fluid. Attention is devoted to the evaluation of the environmental impact, in terms of greenhouse effect. R134a and R744 (CO 2 ) are compared to one another. The hydrofluorocarbon R134a has a large direct warming impact (GWP), whereas the R744 contribution is negligible. The greenhouse effect is determined by the experimental evaluation of the TEWI index (Total Equivalent Warming Impact) that takes into account both direct and indirect contributions to global warming. This paper compares a commercial R134a refrigeration plant and a prototype R744 system working in a trans-critical cycle. The experimental results clearly show that the latter has a larger TEWI than the system operating with R134a. The indirect contribution to global warming provided by R744 is always greater than that of R134a. This contribution prevails in most cases. Only few operating conditions corresponding to a refrigerating plant working as a classical split system benefits, in terms of greenhouse effect, of the substitution of R134a with R744. -- Highlights: ► A comparison between a classical vapour compression plant and a trans-critical cycle. ► Evaluation of the greenhouse effect in R134a substitution with R744. ► Evaluation of direct and indirect contribution to global warming. ► Minimization of the global warming impact of a R744 transcritical cycle.

The greenhouse effect: A new source of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meunier, Francis

2007-01-01

Climate change induced by global warming is a result of an excess of energy at the earth's surface due to the greenhouse effect. But a new energy management can reverse the situation taking advantage of the greenhouse effect to produce renewable energy. In fact, both the renewable energy and the energy consumed which are not dissipated into heat are subtracted from the excess of energy produced by the greenhouse effect and contribute to mitigate climate change. This opens perspectives to harness the greenhouse effect [F. Meunier, Domestiquer l'effet de serre, Dunod, 2005]. Should all the primary energy be renewable energy and should part of the energy production not dissipated into heat, the present earth's energy imbalance should be beneficial and should serve to produce renewable energy

A Comparative Assessment of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hypothetical Electric Airport Transportation Services in Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Koiwanit, J.

2018-05-01

Global warming is an increase of average temperature in the atmosphere, which causes adverse effects on the environment. Carbon dioxide (CO2) from transportation sector is one of the main contributors of the overall greenhouse gases (GHG). To cope with this issue, electric car services are increasingly seen as popular alternative modes of green transportation especially for urban cities as it is more flexible, more environmentally-friendly, and less expensive than the use of conventional vehicles. The study analyses and compare the hypothetical electric car systems from airport transportation services. Center of Environmental Science of Leiden University (CML) 2001, the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) method, is applied to convert life cycle inventory data into environmental impacts. The observed results showed that the electric shuttle bus had the highest impact in global warming potential (GWP) compared to other transportation types. Alternatively, this Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study that evaluated different transportations provided important information for decision makers on quantifying the differences between each scenario.

Self-Calibrating Greenhouse Gas Balloon-Borne Sensor, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Understanding the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has been recognized as critical to predicting climate change and global warming. A...

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Shubert, S.; Starr, David OC.; Susskind, J.; Wu, M.-L. C.

2002-01-01

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Recycling of plastic: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Astrup, Thomas; Fruergaard, Thilde; Christensen, Thomas H

2009-11-01

Major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to plastic waste recycling were evaluated with respect to three management alternatives: recycling of clean, single-type plastic, recycling of mixed/contaminated plastic, and use of plastic waste as fuel in industrial processes. Source-separated plastic waste was received at a material recovery facility (MRF) and processed for granulation and subsequent downstream use. In the three alternatives, plastic was assumed to be substituting virgin plastic in new products, wood in low-strength products (outdoor furniture, fences, etc.), and coal or fuel oil in the case of energy utilization. GHG accounting was organized in terms of indirect upstream emissions (e.g. provision of energy, fuels, and materials), direct emissions at the MRF (e.g. fuel combustion), and indirect downstream emissions (e.g. avoided emissions from production of virgin plastic, wood, or coal/oil). Combined, upstream and direct emissions were estimated to be roughly between 5 and 600 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne( -1) of plastic waste depending on treatment at the MRF and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Potential downstream savings arising from substitution of virgin plastic, wood, and energy fuels were estimated to be around 60- 1600 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne( -1) of plastic waste depending on substitution ratios and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Based on the reviewed data, it was concluded that substitution of virgin plastic should be preferred. If this is not viable due to a mixture of different plastic types and/or contamination, the plastic should be used for energy utilization. Recycling of plastic waste for substitution of other materials such as wood provided no savings with respect to global warming.

Recycling of paper: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Merrild, Hanna; Damgaard, Anders; Christensen, Thomas H

2009-11-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been established for recycling of paper waste with focus on a material recovery facility (MRF). The MRF upgrades the paper and cardboard waste before it is delivered to other industries where new paper or board products are produced. The accounting showed that the GHG contributions from the upstream activities and operational activities, with global warming factors (GWFs) of respectively 1 to 29 and 3 to 9 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) paper waste, were small in comparison wih the downstream activities. The GHG contributions from the downstream reprocessing of the paper waste ranged from approximately 490 to 1460 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne( -1) of paper waste. The system may be expanded to include crediting of avoided virgin paper production which would result in GHG contributions from -1270 to 390 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) paper waste. It may also be assumed that the wood not used for virgin paper production instead is used for production of energy that in turn is assumed to substitute for fossil fuel energy. This would result in GHG contributions from -1850 to -4400 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) of paper waste. These system expansions reveal very large GHG savings, suggesting that the indirect upstream and operational GHG contributions are negligible in comparison with the indirect downstream emissions. However, the data for reprocessing of paper waste and the data for virgin paper production are highly variable. These differences are mainly related to different energy sources for the mills, both in regards to energy form (heat or electricity) and fuel (biomass or fossil fuels).

Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ansuategi, Alberto [Environment Department, University of York, York (United Kingdom); Escapa, Marta [Foundations of Economic Analysis Department, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain)

2002-01-01

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. Unfortunately, this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions. One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global, not local, disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions-income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate-economy interactions. We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency, (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

Greenhouse intelligent control system based on microcontroller

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Congwei

2018-04-01

As one of the hallmarks of agricultural modernization, intelligent greenhouse has the advantages of high yield, excellent quality, no pollution and continuous planting. Taking AT89S52 microcontroller as the main controller, the greenhouse intelligent control system uses soil moisture sensor, temperature and humidity sensors, light intensity sensor and CO2 concentration sensor to collect measurements and display them on the 12864 LCD screen real-time. Meantime, climate parameter values can be manually set online. The collected measured values are compared with the set standard values, and then the lighting, ventilation fans, warming lamps, water pumps and other facilities automatically start to adjust the climate such as light intensity, CO2 concentration, temperature, air humidity and soil moisture of the greenhouse parameter. So, the state of the environment in the greenhouse Stabilizes and the crop grows in a suitable environment.

Steps toward a cooler greenhouse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1991-01-01

In April a committee of the National Academies of Science and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine urged the Bush Administration and Congress to begin cutting emissions of greenhouse gases immediately. The risk of delay is great, and the cost of insurance against disastrous climate warming is cheap. Now the committee's panel on mitigation has issued a 500-page report describing just how cheap that hedge against a climate calamity could be. The panel found that it would not be unreasonable to expect that a 25% reduction in US greenhouse gas emissions might be achieved at a cost of less than $10 per ton of carbon dioxide or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases. In more familiar terms, that considerable reduction in greenhouse emissions would cost about $4.75 for each barrel of oil burned or $0.11 per gallon of gasoline. The most cost-effective measures for reducing emissions, are increasing the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings and activities, vehicles, and industrial processes that use electricity

Technologies for a greenhouse-constrained society

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuliasha, M.A.; Zucker, A.; Ballew, K.J.

1992-01-01

This conference explored how three technologies might help society adjust to life in a greenhouse-constrained environment. Technology experts and policy makers from around the world met June 11--13, 1991, in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, to address questions about how energy efficiency, biomass, and nuclear technologies can mitigate the greenhouse effect and to explore energy production and use in countries in various stages of development. The conference was organized by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Energy efficiency biomass, and nuclear energy are potential substitutes for fossil fuels that might help slow or even reverse the global warming changes that may result from mankind's thirst for energy. Many other conferences have questioned whether the greenhouse effect is real and what reductions in greenhouse gas emissions might be necessary to avoid serious ecological consequences; this conference studied how these reductions might actually be achieved. For these conference proceedings, individuals papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base

Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

The second generation model of greenhouse gas emissions: background and initial development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, R.; Wise, M.A.; Edmonds, J.A.; Pitcher, H.M.; Barns, D.

1992-01-01

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions has made enormous progress during the course of the past decade. We have progressed from the use of simple time-trend extrapolations to the analysis of emissions of several greenhouse gases with parallel but independent behavioral and optimization models of energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and land-use systems. But our ability to examine potential future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions is limited because modeling tools adequate to the task of integrating analyses of technologies and human activities on a global scale with regional detail, including energy production and consumption, agriculture, manufacture, capital formation, and land-use, along with the interdependencies between these categories, do not yet exist. The first generation of models were specialty models which focused on a particular aspect of the emissions problem without regard to how that activity interacted with other human and natural activities. The natural science pertaining to greenhouse warming now emphasizes the variety of gases associated with potential changes in the radiative composition of the atmosphere: CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, N 2 O, NO x , SO 2 , VOC's, chlorofluorocarbons, (CFC's) and CFC substitutes. Human activities generating the emissions of these gases are interdependent; actions taken to limit emissions from one segment of the economy will affect other segments of the economy. Policy issues such as the recycling of revenues from a carbon tax, land-use changes due to to tree-planting to sequestrate carbon dioxide or extensive development of biomass energy resources, require a more comprehensive modeling approach in which the relationship between technology, institutions, land use, economics and human activity is explicitly represented. The purpose of this paper is to describe briefly the design of a model which is capable of addressing greenhouse gas emissions and the consequences of alternative policy options. 7 refs

Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Nangombe, Shingirai; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Wenxia; Wu, Bo; Hu, Shuai; Zou, Liwei; Li, Donghuan

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events1, the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa2. However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets3,4. Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations5, we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 °C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December-February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25 ± 5% and 20 ± 4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa.

Impact of Climate Warming on Passive Night Cooling Potential

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Artmann, Nikolai; Gyalistras, D.; Manz, H.

2008-01-01

' scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Time-dependent, site-specific Tmin scenarios were constructed from 30 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data sets, as obtained from the European PRUDENCE project. Under both emissions scenarios and across all locations and seasons, CCP...

Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gschrey, Barbara; Schwarz, Winfried [Oeko-Recherche Buero fuer Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbH, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

2009-11-15

Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are currently covered under the Montreal Protocol, which focuses on ozone-depleting substances such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and under the Kyoto Protocol, which controls emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF{sub 6} (sulfur hexafluoride). This study bridges the gap between political regimes and their reporting systems by giving an overview of banks and emissions of all fluorinated gases in 2005, and projections of banks and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2050. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments will eventually result in the full phase out of CFCs and HCFCs. Developed countries have already completed the phase out of CFCs and will reach full phase out of HCFCs by 2020. Developing countries, in contrast, will phase out CFCs by 2010 and HCFCs by 2030. Although climate-friendly technology is available for most applications, the risk occurs that substitutes for ozone-depleting substances rely on HFCs, which cause global warming. This study determines global emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6} (Kyoto F-gases) in 2050 in a ''business-as-usual'' scenario. The global population is expected to increase to ca. 8.7 billion people, and high economic growth of 3.5% per year is assumed. Emissions in 2050 are quantified for each sector of application as well as for developed and developing countries based on growth rates of each sector. In 2050, total global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are projected to amount to 4 GT CO{sub 2} eq. which equals ca. 5.9% of the total greenhouse gas emissions at this time. Compared to a relatively small share of F-gas emissions ranging around 1.3% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004, this percentage reflects an enormous increase. Relative to projected direct CO{sub 2} emissions alone, the 2050 F-gas emissions will even account for ca. 7.9%. In case of CO{sub 2} mitigation, this share

Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

2018-04-03

Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets.

Science.gov (United States)

Leconte, Jérémy; Forget, Francois; Charnay, Benjamin; Wordsworth, Robin; Pottier, Alizée

2013-12-12

The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can 'run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m(-2), which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.

The greenhouse effect and energy efficiency: some facts and figures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere. In particular the burning of fossil fuels emits carbon dioxide, one of the so-called ''greenhouse gases'' that help maintain the Earth's surface at a temperature suitable for life. They transmit incoming sunlight but trap outgoing radiated heat. Levels of greenhouse gases are increasing, giving rise to concern that the world may warm further, leading to climate change. Energy efficiency can make an important contribution to controlling the greenhouse effect, and brings further benefits for industry and commerce through cost savings. 17 figs

The greenhouse effect: A new source of energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meunier, Francis [CNAM-IFFI (EA 21), 292 rue Saint Martin, 75141 Paris (France)]. E-mail: meunierf@cnam.fr

2007-02-15

Climate change induced by global warming is a result of an excess of energy at the earth's surface due to the greenhouse effect. But a new energy management can reverse the situation taking advantage of the greenhouse effect to produce renewable energy. In fact, both the renewable energy and the energy consumed which are not dissipated into heat are subtracted from the excess of energy produced by the greenhouse effect and contribute to mitigate climate change. This opens perspectives to harness the greenhouse effect [F. Meunier, Domestiquer l'effet de serre, Dunod, 2005]. Should all the primary energy be renewable energy and should part of the energy production not dissipated into heat, the present earth's energy imbalance should be beneficial and should serve to produce renewable energy.

The Effects of Rape Residue Mulching on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from No-Tillage Paddy Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-Sheng; Cao, Cou-Gui; Guo, Li-Jin; Li, Cheng-Fang

2014-01-01

A field experiment was conducted to provide a complete greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for global warming potential (GWP), net GWP, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) from no-tillage (NT) paddy fields with different amounts of oilseed rape residue mulch (0, 3000, 4000, and 6000 kg dry matter (DM) ha−1) during a rice-growing season after 3 years of oilseed rape-rice cultivation. Residue mulching treatments showed significantly more organic carbon (C) density for the 0–20 cm soil layer at harvesting than no residue treatment. During a rice-growing season, residue mulching treatments sequestered significantly more organic C from 687 kg C ha−1 season−1 to 1654 kg C ha−1 season−1 than no residue treatment. Residue mulching significantly increased emissions of CO2 and N2O but decreased CH4 emissions. Residue mulching treatments significantly increased GWP by 9–30% but significantly decreased net GWP by 33–71% and GHGI by 35–72% relative to no residue treatment. These results suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be achieved simultaneously by residue mulching on NT paddy fields in central China. PMID:25140329

A meteorologist's view of the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zillman, J.W.

2001-01-01

The greenhouse effect is a natural process in the atmosphere which keeps the earth's surface warm enough for human life There are theoretical and observational reasons for believing that increasing atmospheric concentrations of the trace gases responsible for this surface warmth are leading to enhanced warming and other changes of global and regional climate By modifying the meteorological models used for routine numerical weather prediction to incorporate the influences that are believed to be of most importance on decade to century and longer time scales, the climate research community are able to explore the possible impacts on global and regional climate of a range of possible future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations. Despite many uncertainties, these provide the principal scientific basis for intergovernmental negotiation on the development of global strategies for averting or minimising adverse human impacts on climate and assisting national communities in planning to live with natural climate variability and possible future human-induced change

Elementary Pre-Service Teacher Perceptions of the Greenhouse Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

1999-01-01

Expands on earlier work to examine pre-service teachers' views on environmental issues, especially global warming and the related term "greenhouse effect." Suggests that pre-service elementary teachers hold many misconceptions about environmental issues. (DDR)

Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

Cover materials excluding near infrared radiation: effect on greenhouse climate and plant processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kempkes, F.L.K.; Stanghellini, C.; Hemming, S.; Dai, J.

2008-01-01

Only about half of the energy that enters a greenhouse as sun radiation is in the wavelength range that is useful for photosynthesis (PAR, Photosynthetically Active Radiation). Nearly all the remaining energy fraction is in the Near InfraRed range (NIR) and warms the greenhouse and crop and does

Mitigation of greenhouse gases in the energy sector: an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romani, M.N.

1998-01-01

It is fairly well recognised that greenhouse gases (GHG) have an impact on the global climate as they trap heat in the atmosphere. With the result earth is warmed in manner similar to the glass panels of a greenhouse increase. Hence the name 'green house effect' during the last two centuries in CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere has been reckoned at 25%, with corresponding values for CH/sub 4/ and N/sub 2/O as 100% and 10% during 1950-80. CFC concentration increased by 10%. It is estimated that the earth has warmed by 0.5 deg. C and sea level has increased by 15 cm over the last 100 years or so. The major cause has been attributed to the process of industrialization. (author)

Some considerations on the utilization of thermal drainage for greenhouse heating by means of indirect heat exchange system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Yujiro; Aoki, Kiyoshi; Okano, Toshiaki

1976-01-01

The cost of maintaining the desirable temperature in winter is the principal element in the production of vegetables by greenhouse culture. Therefore very low heating cost and profitable operation are possible if the warm water from a condenser in a power plant is available as the heat source for greenhouse heating. In order to investigate the possibility of utilizing warm water discharge as the heat source for greenhouse heating, experiment was carried out with a miniature greenhouse equipped with the indirect heat exchanger with PVC pipes. The results obtained are summarized as follows. Under the conditions of the warm water discharge of 25 deg C and outside air temperature of -5 deg C, the average temperature and relative humidity in the greenhouse were about 10 deg C and 80%, respectively. From the experimentally obtained relationship between the heat transfer coefficient on the PVC pipe surfaces and the velocity of air passing through the pipes, the heat transfer coefficient at 8 m/sec air velocity was three times as much as that at 2 m/sec. From the theoretically obtained formula for calculating the number of pipes required for a greenhouse, it was determined that 72 PVC pipes of 10 cm diameter and 23 m long were required for a 23 x 25 m greenhouse to maintain 12 deg C inside under the before-described conditions. (Kako, I.)

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

2005-01-01

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

Greenhouse gas contribution of municipal solid waste collection: A case study in the city of Istanbul, Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Korkut, Nafiz E; Yaman, Cevat; Küçükağa, Yusuf; Jaunich, Megan K; Demir, İbrahim

2018-02-01

This article estimates greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors resulting from collection of municipal solid waste to the transfer stations or landfills in Istanbul for the year of 2015. The aim of this study is to quantify and compare diesel fuel consumption and estimate the greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors associated with municipal solid waste collection of the 39 districts of Istanbul. Each district's greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the provision and combustion of diesel fuel was estimated by considering the number of collection trips and distances to municipal solid waste facilities. The estimated greenhouse gases and global warming factors for the districts varied from 61.2 to 2759.1 t CO 2 -eq and from 4.60 to 15.20 kg CO 2 -eq t -1 , respectively. The total greenhouse gas emission was estimated as 46.4E3 t CO 2 -eq. Lastly, the collection data from the districts was used to parameterise a collection model that can be used to estimate fuel consumption associated with municipal solid waste collection. This mechanistic model can then be used to predict future fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions associated with municipal solid waste collection based on projected population, waste generation, and distance to transfer stations and landfills. The greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by decreasing the trip numbers and trip distances, building more transfer stations around the city, and making sure that the collection trucks are full in each trip.

Comparing greenhouse gases for policy purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalensee, R.

1993-01-01

In order to derive optimal policies for greenhouse gas emissions control, the discounted marginal damages of emissions from different gases must be compared. The greenhouse warming potential (GWP) index, which is most often used to compare greenhouse gases, is not based on such a damage comparison. This essay presents assumptions under which ratios of gas-specific discounted marginal damages reduce to ratios of discounted marginal contributions to radiative forcing, where the discount rate is the difference between the discount rate relevant to climate-related damages and the rate of growth of marginal climate-related damages over time. If there are important gas-specific costs or benefits not tied to radiative forcing, however, such as direct effects of carbon dioxide on plant growth, there is in general no shortcut around explicit comparison of discounted net marginal damages. 16 refs

Greenhouse statistics: A different look at climate research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, R.S.J.; Vos, A.F. de

1994-01-01

The debate on the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, confusing the climate change impact analysis and the decision makers. This article attempts to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the temperature's response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and attempts to weigh the hypothesis that the observed warming is due to the long-term natural variability against the hypothesis that it is due to human influence. Information from the distant past on the size of natural variability plays a key role in this. On the basis of this information, the authors conclude that the hypothesis that the observed temperature rise is not related to the enhanced greenhouse effect is rejected at the 1% significance level

Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

2005-08-01

Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

Low Simulated Radiation Limit for Runaway Greenhouse Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Goldblatt, Colin; Robinson, Tyler D.; Zahnle, Kevin J.; Crisp, David

2013-01-01

Terrestrial planet atmospheres must be in long-term radiation balance, with solar radiation absorbed matched by thermal radiation emitted. For hot moist atmospheres, however, there is an upper limit on the thermal emission which is decoupled from the surface temperature. If net absorbed solar radiation exceeds this limit the planet will heat uncontrollably, the so-called \\runaway greenhouse". Here we show that a runaway greenhouse induced steam atmosphere may be a stable state for a planet with the same amount of incident solar radiation as Earth has today, contrary to previous results. We have calculated the clear-sky radiation limits at line-by-line spectral resolution for the first time. The thermal radiation limit is lower than previously reported (282 W/sq m rather than 310W/sq m) and much more solar radiation would be absorbed (294W/sq m rather than 222W/sq m). Avoiding a runaway greenhouse under the present solar constant requires that the atmosphere is subsaturated with water, and that cloud albedo forcing exceeds cloud greenhouse forcing. Greenhouse warming could in theory trigger a runaway greenhouse but palaeoclimate comparisons suggest that foreseeable increases in greenhouse gases will be insufficient to do this.

Using global warming potential to compare methane and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.

2009-01-01

Greenhouse gases affect the planetary heat budget. Any change of their concentration affects this budget and therefore the global mean surface temperature of the Earth. These gases have different radiative properties and different lifetimes in the atmosphere, which prevents any direct comparison of the consequences of their emissions on global warming. Almost twenty years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed the global warming potential (GWP) as an index to compare the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. In a recent paper, it has been stated that the use of GWP leads to strongly underestimating the global warming due to constant methane emissions compared to that of constant CO 2 emissions. Here we show that it is not really the case. The GWP enables comparisons of global warming due to constant emissions for any prescribed period, 100 years being often used. But this comparison is not universal. For instance, the impact of methane is underestimated at the beginning of the chosen period while the impact of CO 2 is underestimated after this period

Unified force and its relation with global warming crave for hydrogen energy and promote fuel cell technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

2011-01-01

Global warming is presently a tremendous public interest and has become a threat to every individual. Huge quantities of CO/sub 2/ are emitted to the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity in power plants and burning of gasoline in aeroplanes and vehicles. Enormous amount of greenhouse gasses are sent into the air when garbage is burnt in landfills. Cutting down of trees and other plants which collect CO/sub 2/ a greenhouse gas which is inhaled and which gives back oxygen which is exhaled makes global warming worse. 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is also known as Unified Force is also related with global warming which is proportional to increase of H/sub 2/O level in sea and causes floods, storms, droughts and severe impacts to the environment and society. In order to better understand global warming and its relation with Unified Force, this paper discusses the cause and effect system on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and also the other green house gases like CH/sub 4/, water vapour, NOx etc. and emphasis its importance to focus on crave for Hydrogen Energy and to promote Fuel Cell technology to keep the earth green and safer from the impacts of global warming. The benefit of switching from fossil fuels to Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell technology reduces the impact of global warming, elimination of pollution caused by fossil fuels and greenhouse gases, economic dependence and distributed production. (author)

Assessment of urgent impacts of greenhouse gas emissions—the climate tipping potential (CTP)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

2014-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change receives much focus today. This impact is however often considered only in terms of global warming potential (GWP), which does not take into account the need for staying below climatic target levels, in order to avoid...... passing critical climate tipping points. Some suggestions to include a target level in climate change impact assessment have been made, but with the consequence of disregarding impacts beyond that target level. The aim of this paper is to introduce the climate tipping impact category, which represents...... as on the chosen climatic target level and background scenario for atmospheric GHG concentration development. In order to enable direct application in life cycle assessment (LCA), CTP characterisation factors are presented for the three main anthropogenic GHGs, CO2, CH4 and N2O.The CTP metric distinguishes...

FETC Programs for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruether, J.A.

1998-02-01

Mark Twain once quipped that everyone talks about the weather but no one does anything about it. With interest in global climate change on the rise, researchers in the fossil-energy sector are feeling the heat to provide new technology to permit continued use of fossil fuels but with reduced emissions of so-called 'greenhouse gases.' Three important greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, are released to the atmosphere in the course of recovering and combusting fossil fuels. Their importance for trapping radiation, called forcing, is in the order given. In this report, we briefly review how greenhouse gases cause forcing and why this has a warming effect on the Earth's atmosphere. Then we discuss programs underway at FETC that are aimed at reducing emissions of methane and carbon dioxide

Urban warming drives insect pest abundance on street trees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily K Meineke

Full Text Available Cities profoundly alter biological communities, favoring some species over others, though the mechanisms that govern these changes are largely unknown. Herbivorous arthropod pests are often more abundant in urban than in rural areas, and urban outbreaks have been attributed to reduced control by predators and parasitoids and to increased susceptibility of stressed urban plants. These hypotheses, however, leave many outbreaks unexplained and fail to predict variation in pest abundance within cities. Here we show that the abundance of a common insect pest is positively related to temperature even when controlling for other habitat characteristics. The scale insect Parthenolecanium quercifex was 13 times more abundant on willow oak trees in the hottest parts of Raleigh, NC, in the southeastern United States, than in cooler areas, though parasitism rates were similar. We further separated the effects of heat from those of natural enemies and plant quality in a greenhouse reciprocal transplant experiment. P. quercifex collected from hot urban trees became more abundant in hot greenhouses than in cool greenhouses, whereas the abundance of P. quercifex collected from cooler urban trees remained low in hot and cool greenhouses. Parthenolecanium quercifex living in urban hot spots succeed with warming, and they do so because some demes have either acclimatized or adapted to high temperatures. Our results provide the first evidence that heat can be a key driver of insect pest outbreaks on urban trees. Since urban warming is similar in magnitude to global warming predicted in the next 50 years, pest abundance on city trees may foreshadow widespread outbreaks as natural forests also grow warmer.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Agricultural sources of greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rochette, P.

2003-01-01

The author described different sources of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural activities and the process by which carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane are generated on Canadian farms. The author also proposed some practices that would contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. A brief description of the greenhouse effect was also provided with special emphasis on the agricultural sector. In 1996, the Canadian agricultural sector was responsible for approximately 10 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in the country. Given the increase in farm animals and more intensive agricultural activities, it is estimated that greenhouse gas emissions generated by the agricultural sector will increase by 20 per cent by 2010 if current practices remain in effect. The most optimistic scenarios indicate that the agricultural sector could achieve or even exceed Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitments mainly through organic material sequestration in soils. The possibility for farmers to sell greenhouse gas credits could motivate farmers into adopting various practices that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. However, the author indicated that the best motivation for farmers is the fact that adopting such practices would also lead to more efficient agricultural production. 5 refs., 4 figs

Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauretano, V.

2016-01-01

The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

Energy inputs and greenhouse gases emissions in wheat production in Gorgan, Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soltani, Afshin; Rajabi, M.H.; Zeinali, E.; Soltani, Elias

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study were to analyze energy use and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in various wheat production scenarios in north eastern Iran and to identify measures to reduce energy use and GHG emissions. Three high-input, a low-input, a better crop management and a usual production scenarios were included. All activities and production processes were monitored and recorded. Averages of total energy input and output were 15.58 and 94.4 GJ ha −1 , respectively. Average across scenarios, GHG emissions of 1137 kg CO 2 -eq ha −1 and 291 kg CO 2 -eq t −1 were estimated. The key factors relating to energy use and GHG emissions were seedbed preparation and sowing and applications of nitrogen fertilizer. The better crop management production scenario required 38% lower nitrogen fertilizer (and 33% lower total fertilizer), consumed 11% less input energy and resulted in 33% more grain yield and output energy compared to the usual production scenario. It also resulted in 20% less GHG emissions per unit field area and 40% less GHG emissions per ton of grain. It was concluded that this scenario was the cleaner production scenario in terms of energy use and GHG emissions. Measures of improvement in energy use and GHG emission were identified. - Highlights: ► Wheat production scenarios were evaluated for energy use and greenhouse gases emission. ► A better crop management production scenario was the cleaner production scenario. ► Measures to reduce energy use and greenhouse gases emission were identified

Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

2005-01-01

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

The climatic scenario of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Greenhouse Gases Emission and Global Warming Potential as Affected by Chemicals Inputs for Main Cultivated Crops in Kerman Province: - Cereal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rooholla Moradi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction Agriculture is a major consumer of chemical resources. Increasing use of the inputs in agriculture has led to numerous environmental problems such as high consumption of nonrenewable energy resources, loss of biodiversity and pollution of the aquatic environment (Moradi et al., 2014. This environmental change will have the serious impacts on different growth and development processes of crops. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC states that future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs will continue to increase and cause to climatic change (IPCC, 2007. This condition is also true for Iran. The three greenhouse gases associated with agriculture are carbon dioxide (CO2, methane (CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O. Consistent with the development of agricultural production systems and move towards modernization in this sector increased dependence of the chemical resource (Salinger, 2005. There is even less data on CO2, N2O, and CH4 gas emission analysis as affected by cultivating various crops in Kerman province. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the greenhouse gases (GHGs emission and global warming potential (GWP caused by chemical inputs (various chemical fertilizers and pesticides for cultivating wheat, barley and maize in some regions of Kerman province at 2011-2012 growth season. Materials and methods The study was conducted in Kerman province of Iran. Information about planting area of potato, onion and watermelon in various regions of Kerman was collected. Data were collected from potato, onion and watermelon growers by using a face to face questionnaire in 2014 for different regions of Kerman. In addition to the data obtained by surveys, previous studies of related organization (Agricultural Ministry of Kerman were also utilized during the study. The application rates of the chemical inputs were collected by using a face-to-face questionnaire in various regions (Bardsir, Bam, Jiroft

Technological substitution options for controlling greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbier, E.B.; Burgess, J.C.; Pearce, D.W.

1991-01-01

This chapter is concerned with technological options for greenhouse gas substitution. The authors interpret the term substitution to exclude energy conservation/efficiency measures, investments in afforestation (sinks), and greenhouse gas removal or abatement technologies. Their working definition of greenhouse gas substitution includes (1) replacement technologies, for example, substituting a greenhouse gas technology with a nongreenhouse gas technology; and (2) reduction technologies, for example, substituting a greenhouse gas technology with an alternative technology that reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Essentially, replacement technologies involve 100 percent reduction in CO 2 ; reduction technologies involve a partial reduction in CO 2 . Of the man-made sources of greenhouse gases, energy is the most important and is expected to contribute to at least half of the global warming effect in the near future. The majority of this impact is from fossil fuel combustion as a source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), although fossil fuels also contribute significantly to methane (CH 4 ), to nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and to low-level ozone (O 3 ) through production of various nitrogen gases (NO x ) and carbon monoxide (CO). This study analyzes the available greenhouse gas substitutions and their costs. The authors concentrate particularly on substitutions for fossil-fuel combustion and CFC production and consumption. They conclude by summarizing the potential for greenhouse gas substitution, the cost-effectiveness of the various options and the design of incentives for substitution

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Collection, transfer and transport of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eisted, Rasmus; Larsen, Anna Warberg; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2009-01-01

) emissions were quantified. The emission factors were assigned a global warming potential (GWP) and aggregated into global warming factors (GWFs), which express the potential contribution to global warming from collection, transport and transfer of 1 tonne of wet waste. Six examples involving collection...

Global Warming: A Myth?

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

Greenhouse gases - an up-date on the contribution of automotive fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, M.L.

1992-01-01

This paper examines the contribution to global emissions of greenhouse gases from automotive fuels. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change are explained briefly. Data is presented on the global warming potential of automobile emissions, actual measured emission rates and greenhouse gas emissions as CO 2 equivalents. It is concluded that insufficient data exists to assess accurately the contribution of automotive fuel use to all the important greenhouse gases. Over short timescales (say 20 years) low emission technologies do show significant reductions in CO 2 equivalent emissions compared with current technology vehicles. However, in the longer term, fuel economy rather than emissions of non-CO 2 gases, is likely to become the determining factor. (UK)

Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2015-04-01

What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This

Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

Science.gov (United States)

Grandey, B S; Wang, C

2015-08-21

Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

NF ISO 14064-2. Greenhouse gases. Part 2: specifications and guidance at the project level for quantification, monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emission reductions or removal enhancements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This document describes methodology for quantification, monitoring and reporting of activities intended to cause greenhouse gas emissions and reductions at projects level (activity modifying the conditions identified in a baseline scenario, intended to reduce emissions or to increase the removal of greenhouse gases). Thus it suggests a method for the declarations of inventory of projects greenhouse gases and provides support for the monitoring and the management of emissions. It provides terms and definitions, principles, the introduction to greenhouse gases projects and the requirements for greenhouse gas projects. (A.L.B.)

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte

2016-06-30

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Selection of appropriate greenhouse gas mitigation options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramanathan, R. [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India)

1999-10-01

Greenhouse gas mitigation options help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions so as to avoid the adverse environmental impacts due to global warming/climate change. They have different characteristics when evaluated using different criteria. For example, some options may be very cost effective, while some may have an additional advantage of reducing local pollution. Hence, selection of these options, for consideration by a national government or by a funding agency, has to incorporate multiple criteria. In this paper, some important criteria relevant to the selection are discussed, and a multi-criteria methodology is suggested for making appropriate selection. The methodology, called the Analytic Hierarchy Process, is described using two illustrations. (author)

Global Warming Blame the Sun

CERN Document Server

Calder, N

1997-01-01

Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

2010-07-01

Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geyer, R.A.

1993-01-01

A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals

Global warming and drainage development: perspective and challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wrachien, De D.; Feddes, R.A.

2004-01-01

The report gives an overview of current and future (time horizon 2025) drainage developments around the world. Moreover, the paper analyses the results of four of the most advanced global circulation models for assessing the hydrological impact of global warming, due to the greenhouse effect, on the

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

The greenhouse effect

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1992-01-01

a convincing basis for decision making in order to counter climatic change will become evere more acute. Even though most governments may agree that something should be done, many disagree over the extent, the pace, and the acceptable costs of action. Is it, for example, sufficient to follow the recommendation...... different time spans?The present paper seeks to contribute to the creation of a more convincing an operational basis for decision making. The authors recommend the application of calculated profiles of realized global warming or avoided global warming as a direct and comprehensible way of comparing...... different options for reducing emissions. Computed results for two selected global and two national scenarios are presented....

Does warming affect growth rate and biomass production of shrubs in the High Arctic?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Campioli, Matteo; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Albert, Kristian Rost

2013-01-01

Few studies have assessed directly the impact of warming on plant growth and biomass production in the High Arctic. Here, we aimed to investigate the impact of 7 years of warming (open greenhouses) on the aboveground relative growth rate (RGR) of Cassiope tetragona and Salix arctica in North-East...

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

2014-01-01

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

Uses of warmed water in agriculture. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrett, R.E.

1978-11-01

Energy in the form of warmed water is available from condenser cooling water from fossil fuel or nuclear-electric power-generating facilities, geothermal power plants, geothermal fluids, or spent steam and cooling water from industrial processes. A re-analysis of the characteristics of possible agricultural uses of warmed water has revealed the need to decouple considerations of warmed water sources from those of warmed water users. Conflicting objectives and managerial requirements seem to preclude an integrated system approach. Rather an interface must be established with separate costs and benefits identified for a reliable warmed water source and for its various potential uses. These costs and benefits can be utilized as a basis for decisions separately by the energy supplier and the prospective energy users. A method of classifying uses of warmed water according to need, volume, objective, temperature, and quality is presented and preliminary classifications are discussed for several potential agricultural uses of warmed water. Specific uses for soil warming, space heating in greenhouses, and irrigation are noted. Specific uses in aquaculture for catfish, lobster, and prawn production are discussed. Warmed water use in animal shelters is mentioned. Low-quality heat is required for methane generation from biomass and warmed water heating could be utilized in this industry. 53 references

Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

1993-05-01

This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

The core of the global warming problem: energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, E.

2005-01-01

From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an 'energy balance' problem. The heat (energy) accumulation in the earth and its atmosphere is the cause of global warming. This accumulation is mainly due to the imbalance of (solar) energy reaching and the energy leaving the earth, caused by 'greenhouse effect' in which the CO 2 and other greenhouse gases play a critical role; so that balance of the energy entering and leaving the earth should be the key to solve the problem. Currently in the battle of tackling the global warming, we mainly focus on the development of CO 2 -related measures, i.e., emission reduction, CO 2 sequestration, and CO 2 recycle technologies. It is right in technical aspect, because they are attempting to thin the CO 2 'blanket' around the earth. However, 'Energy' that is the core of the problem has been overlooked, at least in management/policy aspect. This paper is proposing an 'Energy Credit' i.e., the energy measure concept as an alternative to the 'CO 2 credit' that is currently in place in the proposed emission trading scheme. The proposed energy credit concept has the advantages such as covering broad activities related to the global warming and not just direct emissions. Three examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the energy measure and its advantages over the CO 2 credit concept. (Author)

[Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

2013-05-01

It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

Forests and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curren, T.

1991-04-01

The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

Improving Students' Conceptual Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect Using Theory-Based Learning Materials that Promote Deep Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Reinfried, Sibylle; Aeschbacher, Urs; Rottermann, Benno

2012-01-01

Students' everyday ideas of the greenhouse effect are difficult to change. Environmental education faces the challenge of developing instructional settings that foster students' conceptual understanding concept of the greenhouse effect in order to understand global warming. To facilitate students' conceptual development with regard to the…

The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M

2007-07-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Understanding the Greenhouse Effect by Embodiment - Analysing and Using Students' and Scientists' Conceptual Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Niebert, Kai; Gropengießer, Harald

2014-01-01

Over the last 20 years, science education studies have reported that there are very different understandings among students of science regarding the key aspects of climate change. We used the cognitive linguistic framework of experientialism to shed new light on this valuable pool of studies to identify the conceptual resources of understanding climate change. In our study, we interviewed 35 secondary school students on their understanding of the greenhouse effect and analysed the conceptions of climate scientists as drawn from textbooks and research reports. We analysed all data by metaphor analysis and qualitative content analysis to gain insight into students' and scientists' resources for understanding. In our analysis, we found that students and scientists refer to the same schemata to understand the greenhouse effect. We categorised their conceptions into three different principles the conceptions are based on: warming by more input, warming by less output, and warming by a new equilibrium. By interrelating students' and scientists' conceptions, we identified the students' learning demand: First, our students were afforded with experiences regarding the interactions of electromagnetic radiation and CO2. Second, our students reflected about the experience-based schemata they use as source domains for metaphorical understanding of the greenhouse effect. By uncovering the-mostly unconscious-deployed schemata, we gave students access to their source domains. We implemented these teaching guidelines in interventions and evaluated them in teaching experiments to develop evidence-based and theory-guided learning activities on the greenhouse effect.

Global Warming: Claims, Science, and Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Laurence I.

2007-04-01

Widespread (and seemingly dominant) claims about the dire consequences of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been propagated by both scientists and politicians and have been prominently featured by much of the mass media. This talk will examine some of those claims --- such as those made in the popular pro-AGW film, An Inconvenient Truth^1 --- from the perspectives of science^2 and scientific methodology^3. Some of the issues considered will be: What are the major ``greenhouse gases''? To what extent is global warming a result of human influences through an increase of ``greenhouse gases''? Is an increase in (1) global temperature and (2) carbon dioxide bad/good? What are some meanings that can be given to the term ``consensus'' in science? What are the estimated financial and other costs of governments implementing the Kyoto accords? Links to readings and videos will be given at the conclusion of the talk. ^1Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It -- (Rodale Press, May, 2006). ^2Marlo Lewis, ``A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth'' http://www.cei.org/pages/aitresponse-book.cfm ^3Aaron Wildavsky, But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues (Harvard University Press, 1995), Intro. and Chap. 11. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NES07.C1.6

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongxiang Zhang

Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING General Provision Pt. 98, Subpt. A, Table A-1 Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming...

Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

2010-06-15

A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginzburg, V.

1998-01-01

In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

Global warming from an energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, A.G.

1991-01-01

Global climate change and energy are integrally related. The majority of greenhouse gas emissions are the result of energy production and use; at the same time, warming will affect energy patterns in California through physical increases in energy demand, physical changes in energy supply, and changes in both energy end-use patterns and supplies resulting from climate-change policies. There seems to be a growing political consensus that the world (as well as the state) needs to act soon to minimize further commitment to future warming. While California is not likely to experience the physical changes resulting from a warmer climate for years or perhaps decades, policy responses to the warming issue may cause more immediate impacts. This chapter will discuss how policy response to potential warming may be the most significant early impact of the issue on California's energy system. Makers of energy policy face the dilemma of deciding how to respond to the climate warming issue in the face of scientific uncertainties about its timing and seriousness. The chapter will conclude by presenting a conceptual framework for dealing with this dilemma, along with general recommendations for action

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change : global and regional perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. What is less recognized than problems with GHGs, however, is a comparably major g...

The Greenhouse effect: from research to political action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, A.; Charmant, A.; Ladoux, N.; Vielle, M.

1992-01-01

What would be the ecological and socio-economic consequences of the warming of the planet Earth. The greenhouse effect is better defined today, but evaluating the dangers is still a risky business which demands extreme caution. The study recapitulates the current state of knowledge, and the preventive measures under consideration, so as to encourage the examination of the question

Stopping the greenhouse effect - recommendations submitted by the Bundestag Enquete Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bach, W.

1991-01-01

Details are given about the factors which influence the greenhouse effect and about the impact of the greenhouse effect on the climate. The strategy developed by the enquete commission for the Federal Republic of Germany is essentially based on the international and the EC recommendations for stopping the additional greenhouse effect and for reducing the emission of power-generation trace gases which affect the climate. Different scenarios are analyzed to evaluate the recommended measures. (DG) [de

Strengthening the Montreal Protocol: Does it cool down the greenhouse?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Swart, R.J.; Rotmans, J.

1992-01-01

Strengthening of the Montreal Protocol is recently being negotiated in London in 1990 in order to achieve further reductions of the regulated CFCs and to include possibly more substances. The implications of different policies with respect to control of ozone depleting substances for climate change are analysed, including the proposed substitution by HCFCs and HFCs, carbon tetrachloride and methylchloroform. A special halocarbon module was developed within the framework of RIVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE). IMAGE is a parametrized science based policy model and has been developed to give policy agencies a concise overview of the quantitative aspects of the greenhouse problem, to evaluate various policy options concerning climate change and to serve as a means of communication. It is concluded, from simulations with the halocarbon module, that it is of primary importance to achieve a further reduction of the regulated CFCs compared to the Montreal Protocol with compliance by as many countries as possible. From the perspective of the greenhouse effect the inclusion of longer lived halocarbons, such as carbon tetrachloride and HCFC-22 in the protocol come second. The application of methylchloroform, halons and HCFCs and HFCs with lower global warming potentials (GWPs) than HCFC-22 contributes only marginally to the greenhouse effect in comparison with the much more important greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide. Especially if further growth of the total production of HCFCs after complete replacement of the present CFCs can be avoided by using these alternatives with a lower GWP, these substances could therefore be tolerated in a transition period, from the perspective of global warming. 13 figs., 3 tabs., 29 refs

The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldblatt, Colin; Watson, Andrew J

2012-09-13

The ultimate climate emergency is a 'runaway greenhouse': a hot and water-vapour-rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only after the surface reaches approximately 1400 K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that the Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here, we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the dynamics, thermodynamics, radiative transfer and cloud physics of hot and steamy atmospheres is weak. We cannot therefore completely rule out the possibility that human actions might cause a transition, if not to full runaway, then at least to a much warmer climate state than the present one. High climate sensitivity might provide a warning. If we, or more likely our remote descendants, are threatened with a runaway greenhouse, then geoengineering to reflect sunlight might be life's only hope. Injecting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere would be too short-lived, and even sunshades in space might require excessive maintenance. In the distant future, modifying Earth's orbit might provide a sustainable solution. The runaway greenhouse also remains relevant in planetary sciences and astrobiology: as extrasolar planets smaller and nearer to their stars are detected, some will be in

Empirical links between the local runaway greenhouse, super-greenhouse, and deep convection in Earth's tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Dewey, M. C.; Goldblatt, C.

2017-12-01

Energy balance requires that energy absorbed and emitted at the top of the atmosphere equal; this is maintained via the Planck feedback whereby outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) increases as surface temperature increases. There are two cases where this breaks down: the runaway greenhouse (known from planetary sciences theory) characterized by an asymptotic limit on OLR from moist atmospheres, and the super-greenhouse (known from tropical meteorology observations) where OLR decreases with surface temperature when the atmosphere is moist aloft. Here we show that the runaway greenhouse limit can be empirically observed and constrained in Earth's tropics, that the runaway and super-greenhouse occur as part of the same physical phenomenon, and that the transition through the super-greenhouse to a local runaway greenhouse is intimately linked to the onset of deep convection. A runaway greenhouse occurs when water vapour causes the troposphere to become optically thick to thermal radiation from the surface and a limit on OLR emerges as thermal emission is from a constant temperature level aloft. This limit is modelled as 282 W/m/m [Goldblatt et al, 2013]. Using satellite data from Earth's tropics, we find an empirical value of this limit of 280 W/m/m, in excellent agreement with the model.A column transitioning to a runaway greenhouse typically overshoots the runaway limit and then OLR decreases with increasing surface temperature until the runaway limit is reached after which OLR remains constant. The term super-greenhouse effect (SGE) has been used to describe OLR decreasing with surface warming, observed in these satellite measurements. We show the SGE is one and the same as the transition to a local runaway greenhouse, and represents a fundamental shift in the radiation response of the earth system, rather than simply an extension of water vapour feedback. This transition via SGE from an optically thin to optically thick troposphere is facilitated by enhanced

Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Tenreiro Machado

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

The Runaway Greenhouse Effect on Earth and other Planets

Science.gov (United States)

Rabbette, Maura; Pilewskie, Peter; McKay, Christopher; Young, Robert

2001-01-01

Water vapor is an efficient absorber of outgoing longwave infrared radiation on Earth and is the primary greenhouse gas. Since evaporation increases with increasing sea surface temperature, and the increase in water vapor further increases greenhouse warming, there is a positive feedback. The runaway greenhouse effect occurs if this feedback continues unchecked until all the water has left the surface and enters the atmosphere. For Mars and the Earth the runaway greenhouse was halted when water vapor became saturated with respect to ice or liquid water respectively. However, Venus is considered to be an example of a planet where the runaway greenhouse effect did occur, and it has been speculated that if the solar luminosity were to increase above a certain limit, it would also occur on the Earth. Satellite data acquired during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) under clear sky conditions shows that as the sea surface temperature (SST) increases, the rate of outgoing infrared radiation at the top of the atmosphere also increases, as expected. Over the pacific warm pool where the SST exceeds 300 K the outgoing radiation emitted to space actually decreases with increasing SST, leading to a potentially unstable system. This behavior is a signature of the runaway greenhouse effect on Earth. However, the SST never exceeds 303K, thus the system has a natural cap which stops the runaway. According to Stefan-Boltzmann's law the amount of heat energy radiated by the Earth's surface is proportional to (T(sup 4)). However, if the planet has a substantial atmosphere, it can absorb all infrared radiation from the lower surface before the radiation penetrates into outer space. Thus, an instrument in space looking at the planet does not detect radiation from the surface. The radiation it sees comes from some level higher up. For the earth#s atmosphere the effective temperature (T(sub e)) has a value of 255 K corresponding to the middle troposphere, above most of the

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Shunsuke

2012-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

Greenhouse effect: doubts and unknowns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabarelli, D.

1992-01-01

There are few doubts today in the scientific world that atmospheric carbon dioxide traps in heat and therefore contributes to global warming; however, it is yet uncertain as to whether the presence of this gas in the upper atmosphere is the only cause of the greenhouse effect, and the scientific theories defining the effect and its causes present a few obvious and significant gaps. This paper cites the fact that most greenhouse effect models only marginally, if at all, consider the mechanisms governing the formation and absorption of carbon dioxide by the earth's oceans; yet oceanic CO 2 concentration levels are about 60 times greater than those found in the atmosphere, and they depend on complex interactions, in seawater, among such factors as currents, carbon oxygenation, and vegetative activity. Another area of weakness in greenhouse effect modelling stems from the complexity and uncertainty introduced by the fact that, in addition to trapping heat, clouds reflect it, thus giving rise to an opposite cooling effect. In addition, it is pointed out that the current models are limited to predicting global and not regional or local effects

Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

1991-01-01

The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaelis, P.

1993-01-01

This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

Science.gov (United States)

Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

2014-01-01

Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the

Argument in the greenhouse. The international economics of controlling global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mabey, N.; Hall, S.; Smith, C.; Gupta, S.

1997-01-01

This book adds a significant new contribution to the crucial climate change/global warming debate. Incorporating the key political and legal considerations into 'real world' applied economic analysis, the authors provide a unique focus on the wider political economy of the problem. All the key issues of controlling climate change (costs, timing and degree of stabilisation, ecological tax reform, developing countries, and evolution of international agreements), are placed firmly within the current legal and political economy context, with state-of-the art economic techniques introduced to analyse different policy proposals. Covering both the developing and developed world, this book identifies important new policies to foster effective agreements on emissions and prevent global warming - realistic policies, likely to receive support at both international and domestic levels. (Author)

Self-interacting warm dark matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannestad, Steen; Scherrer, Robert J.

2000-01-01

It has been shown by many independent studies that the cold dark matter scenario produces singular galactic dark halos, in strong contrast with observations. Possible remedies are that either the dark matter is warm so that it has significant thermal motion or that the dark matter has strong self-interactions. We combine these ideas to calculate the linear mass power spectrum and the spectrum of cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations for self-interacting warm dark matter. Our results indicate that such models have more power on small scales than is the case for the standard warm dark matter model, with a CMB fluctuation spectrum which is nearly indistinguishable from standard cold dark matter. This enhanced small-scale power may provide better agreement with the observations than does standard warm dark matter. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishtiaq Hassan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

1999-01-01

The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: A consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik

2012-01-01

and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow...... and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO2-eq. ha-1, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO2-eq. ha-1, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty...... analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results. © 2012 American Chemical Society....

Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

2007-01-01

Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-12-01

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

2011-04-15

Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Jeffrey

2018-06-01

Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

As warm as in Germany or Northern Africa? Climate scenarios for the research programme Climatools; Lika varmt som i Tyskland eller Nordafrika? Klimatscenarier inom forskningsprogrammet Climatools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parmhed, Oskar; Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika

2007-05-15

Future climate change may become larger or smaller depending on the development of greenhouse gas emissions. During 2007 the IPCC released its fourth assessment report on the dominant causes of climate change. At the end of this century it is expected that the global mean temperature may have risen with as much as six degrees. The heating may be even greater in Sweden, with effects on precipitation, vegetation, and snow cover. The Climatools research programme aims at maintaining or increasing the capacity of sectors and regions in Sweden to deliver services to the society by providing decision makers with tools for decision on issues of climate change. The tools are developed in scenario based case studies. Common to all scenarios in Climatools are assumptions on the future climate in Sweden. Within Climatools the effects on three regions are considered: Umeaa, Maelardalen, and Skaane. We have chosen three climate scenarios as a basis for coming work within the programme. These three scenarios are presented in this report, together with their motivation. The effects on the three regions of interest are also described. With these scenarios we want to span a challenging space of outcomes for the future work. The three scenarios are named after what the average temperature in Umeaa equals in terms of todays climate. They are called: Umeaa like Umeaa, Umeaa like Germany, and Umeaa like North Africa

Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the use of mobility services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grischkat, Sylvie; Hunecke, Marcel; Böhler, Susanne

2014-01-01

gas emissions per person and year was found to be 78 kg in an optimistic scenario and 25 kg in a pessimistic scenario. Extrapolated to the German metropolitan population, behaviour-related measures alone could result in a 1.8 million ton (optimistic scenario) or 0.6 million ton (pessimistic scenario......This study evaluates potential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the passenger transport sector achievable through the use of mobility services. Beside car-sharing and -pooling, six services targeted at improving and encouraging the use of urban public transportation were considered......) reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. In order to exploit this potential fully, however, target group specific information should be obtained and communication strategies developed, as addressed in this paper. This study further presents the limitation of reduction potential quantification...

Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, D.P. van

2007-01-01

In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

Evaluation of an earth heat storage system in a solar energy greenhouse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Q.; Langrell, J.; Boris, R. [Manitoba Univ., Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Dept. of Biosystems Engineering

2010-07-01

Greenhouses store solar energy in the walls and floors during the daytime and release the stored energy back to the greenhouse at night. In this study, an earth heat storage system was constructed and tested in a solar energy greenhouse in order to enhance energy storage. The system consisted of a network of perforated pipes buried in the soil at depths from 0.3 to 1 m. The warm air near the greenhouse ceiling was drawn to the buried pipes. Soil and air temperatures were recorded at various locations by a network of thermocouples. The energy balance was analyzed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the earth heat storage system. The temperature profiles in the soil were used to determine the summer recharge and winter energy depletion behaviour of the system.

The CO2 diet for a greenhouse planet: Assessing individual actions for slowing global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeCicco, J.; Cook, J.; Bolze, D.; Beyea, J.

1990-01-01

Because of uncontrolled population growth and a short-sighted choice of technologies, humankind is emitting enormous quantities of greenhouse gases. Reducing emissions of these gases which can disrupt the Earth's climate will require action by individuals as well as by governments and industries. Most energy use currently entails carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions; increasing energy efficiency can therefore address a major portion of the emissions. Reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as halocarbons, is also necessary. Following such a low-CO 2 diet will require lifestyle changes and prudent consumption choices by individuals. This paper focuses on the activities related to greenhouse gas emissions in the US over which individuals have some control

Biological methanogenesis and the CO2 greenhouse effect

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, P. D.

1986-01-01

It is well established that plants tend to increase net photosynthesis under increased carbon dioxide. It is also well established that a large fraction of atmospheric methane is produced by microbial metabolism of organic sediments in paddies and freshwater wetlands, where a major source of organic debris is local plant growth. As CO2 increases, it may lead to increased methane production and a resulting enhancement of the expected greenhouse warming. A rough estimate of the present rate of this biologically mediated feedback on the climate system indicates that it might account for as much as 30 percent of the observed methane increase and speed up the greenhouse forcing by as much as 15 percent.

How to stop global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldenberg, J.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on how to stop global warming. At the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988, the world's industrialized nations agreed on a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the year 2005. This would not stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases but would at least slow their accumulation. Although difficult to achieve, the Toronto goal is certainly reachable. Newer, more efficient technologies can lower energy consumption without effecting economic output. CFC- substitutes can provide refrigeration. In fact, an international carbon tax of just $1 per barrel of oil, or $6 per ton of coal, would generate more than enough revenue to pay for the necessary fuel-saving measures. This tax could result from an international agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which obliges its signatories to cut down on production of CFCs

Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh

2012-01-01

Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.

Ethical choices and global climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dotto, L

1994-01-01

The ethical implications of global warming are discussed, and a summary is presented of a study on ethics and climate change. Deciding the 'best' approaches depends on point of view, whether this be of a Canadian, a Somali, great grandchildren, the Amazon rain forest or a kangaroo. The spectrum of possible actions runs from avoidance to adaptation. Avoidance focuses on strategies to reduce the greenhouse effect by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions or preventing these emissions from reaching the atmosphere. Adaptation strategies help to cope with the negative consequences of allowing emissions to continue. Philosophers and ethicists have expressed a wide range of opinions on the consequences, responsibilities, limitations, and legal mechanisms involved in determining global warming action. A profound shift in corporate thinking is called for, with less emphasis on short-term bottom line. The role of governments and other institutions is debated, and questions are raised about the economic strategies that will best protect the interests of future generations. Energy efficiency and conservation must be reflected in the economic equation. Public cynicism with regard to political leaders is such that they are unlikely to credited with any degree of ethical motivation, a view that may be unwarranted. Ethical principles must become more central in the formulation of policies.

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean).

Science.gov (United States)

García, Rosa; Holmer, Marianne; Duarte, Carlos M; Marbà, Núria

2013-12-01

The build-up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8-year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (δ(34)S(water)), sediment (δ(34)SCRS ) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (δ(34)S(leaves)), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS(leaves)) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F(sulphide)) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS(leaves)). We observed lower δ(34)S(leaves), higher F(sulphide) and SS(leaves) coinciding with a 6-year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of δ(34)S(leaves) and the positive one of F(sulphide), TS(leaves) and SS(leaves). Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS(leaves). At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST(max)), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B

Ecosystem warming does not affect photosynthesis or aboveground autotrophic respiration for boreal black spruce

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bronson, D.R. [Wyoming Univ., Laramie, WY (United States). Dept. of Renewable Resources; Gower, S.T. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management

2010-04-15

Substantial increases in climatic temperatures may cause boreal forests to become a carbon source. An improved understanding of the effect of climatic warming on photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration is needed in order to determine the impact of temperature increases on net carbon balances. This study measured the light-saturated photosynthesis foliage respiration and stem respiration of black spruce in heated and control plots during a 3-year period at a site located in Thompson, Manitoba. Greenhouses and soil-heating cables were used to maintain air and soil temperatures at 5 degrees C above ambient air and soil temperatures. Studies were conducted to determine the influence of soil and air warming; soil-only warming; and greenhouses maintained at ambient temperatures. The study showed that treatment differences for photosynthesis, foliage respiration, and stem respiration were not significant over the 3-year period. Results suggested that black spruce may not have significant changes in photosynthesis or respiration rates in warmer climates. 38 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

Discussing the Greenhouse Effect: Children's Collaborative Discourse Reasoning and Conceptual Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Lucia; Santi, Marina

1998-01-01

Investigates fifth-grade students' conceptual changes toward the greenhouse effect and global warming due to sociocognitive interaction developed in small and large group discussion in an authentic classroom context during an environmental education unit. Classroom discussions led the children to integrate new scientific knowledge into their…

Global warming -- Science and anti-science

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Preining, O. [Univ. of Vienna, Wien (Austria). Inst. for Experimental Physics]|[Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wien (Austria). Clean Air Commission

1995-06-01

The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Ciais, Philippe; Michalak, Anna M; Canadell, Josep G; Saikawa, Eri; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Gurney, Kevin R; Sitch, Stephen; Zhang, Bowen; Yang, Jia; Bousquet, Philippe; Bruhwiler, Lori; Chen, Guangsheng; Dlugokencky, Edward; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Melillo, Jerry; Pan, Shufen; Poulter, Benjamin; Prinn, Ronald; Saunois, Marielle; Schwalm, Christopher R; Wofsy, Steven C

2016-03-10

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate. Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

2016-08-25

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emission and sink histories in Finland and its future control potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1996-12-31

The effective atmospheric lifetimes of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}),nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and many of the CFCs are of the order of 100 years. Human activities, as an example GDP, very often change at rates of a few per cents per year,corresponding time constants of some tens of years. Also the forest ecosystems have time constants of this order. Even the human population of the globe is increasing by about two percent per year. Because so many natural and human-linked processes, which are relevant to global warming, have slow change rates of about same order, a time-dependent consideration of the greenhouse warming and its control can give useful information for the understanding of the problem. The objective of the work is to study the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in Finland and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of radiative forcing which describes the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. The idea behind the calculations is that Finland should in some way steer its share of the global radiative forcing and greenhouse effect. This presentation describes the calculation model REFUGE and the projects in which it has been used

Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emission and sink histories in Finland and its future control potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1995-12-31

The effective atmospheric lifetimes of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}),nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and many of the CFCs are of the order of 100 years. Human activities, as an example GDP, very often change at rates of a few per cents per year,corresponding time constants of some tens of years. Also the forest ecosystems have time constants of this order. Even the human population of the globe is increasing by about two percent per year. Because so many natural and human-linked processes, which are relevant to global warming, have slow change rates of about same order, a time-dependent consideration of the greenhouse warming and its control can give useful information for the understanding of the problem. The objective of the work is to study the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in Finland and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of radiative forcing which describes the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. The idea behind the calculations is that Finland should in some way steer its share of the global radiative forcing and greenhouse effect. This presentation describes the calculation model REFUGE and the projects in which it has been used

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kallman, Timothy

Warm absorbers and related phenomena are observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have great potential value. Understanding AGN outflows is important for explaining the mass budgets of the central accreting black hole, and also for understanding feedback and the apparent co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. In the X-ray band warm absorbers are observed as photoelectric absorption and resonance line scattering features in the 0.5-10 keV energy band; the UV band also shows resonance line absorption. Warm absorbers are common in low luminosity AGN and they have been extensively studied observationally. They may play an important role in AGN feedback, regulating the net accretion onto the black hole and providing mechanical energy to the surroundings. However, fundamental properties of the warm absorbers are not known: What is the mechanism which drives the outflow?; what is the gas density in the flow and the geometrical distribution of the outflow?; what is the explanation for the apparent relation between warm absorbers and the surprising quasi-relativistic 'ultrafast outflows' (UFOs)? We propose a focused set of model calculations that are aimed at synthesizing observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. These will be used to explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics in order to answer the questions in the previous paragraph. The guiding principle will be to examine as wide a range as possible of warm absorber driving mechanisms, geometry and other properties, but with as careful consideration as possible to physical consistency. We will build on our previous work, which was a systematic campaign for testing important class of scenarios for driving the outflows. We have developed a set of tools that are unique and well suited for dynamical calculations including radiation in this context. We also have state-of-the-art tools for generating synthetic spectra, which are

Atmospheric greenhouse effect: more subtle than it looks like

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.; Treiner, J.

2011-01-01

State-of-the-art radiative models can be used to calculate in a rigorous and accurate manner the atmospheric greenhouse effect, as well as its variation with concentration in water vapour or carbon dioxide. A simple explanation of this effect uses an analogy with the greenhouse effect produced by a glass window. While this analogy has pedagogical virtues and provides a first order explanation of the mean temperature of the Earth, it has an important drawback; it is not able to explain why the greenhouse effect increases with increasing carbon dioxide concentration. Indeed, absorption of infrared radiation by carbon dioxide is, under this scheme, almost at its maximum and depends very weakly on CO 2 concentration. It is said to be saturated. In this paper, we explore this question and propose an alternative model which, while remaining simple, correctly takes into account the various mechanisms and provides an understanding of the increasing greenhouse effect with CO 2 concentration, together with the corresponding climate warming. The role of the atmospheric temperature gradient is particularly stressed. (authors)

American lay conceptions of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kempton, W.

1990-01-01

Ethnographic interviews were conducted with Americans from all walks of life in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they held fundamental misconceptions that were shared across individuals. Many of these misconceptions derive from the process of fitting a new concept, global warming, into four preexisting categories: stratospheric ozone depletion, plant photosynthesis, tropospheric pollution, and personally-experienced seasonal and geographic temperature variation. Informants readily accepted that human activities could change climate and weather patterns. Indeed, most reported they had already observed changes in weather patterns, some citing space shots or atomic bomb testing as causes. Few informants connected the greenhouse effect to energy or fuel consumption, although the connection was easily understood when explained by the interviewers

A primer for trading greenhouse gas reductions from landfills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-06-01

This introductory level primer on domestic greenhouse gas emissions trading addresses the challenge of dealing with landfill gas emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). It describes the first major emissions trading projects in Canada, the Pilot Emission Reduction Trading (PERT) and the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (GERT) pilot projects which calculate and document the GHG emission reductions that are available from landfill sites. PERT initially focused on nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide. PERT uses the Clean Air Emission Reduction Registry for its emissions trading. Canada completed negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997 along with 160 other countries. Upon ratification, Canada will commit to reducing 6 greenhouse gases by 6 per cent below 1990 levels in the period 2008 to 2012. Canada has recognized that it must reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions to slow global warming which leads to climate change. It has been shown that the capture and destruction of landfill gas can profoundly contribute to meeting the target. One tool that can be used to help meet the objective of reducing GHG emissions is domestic GHG emission trading, or carbon trading, as a result of landfill gas capture and flaring. Landfill gas is generally composed of equal parts of carbon dioxide and methane with some other trace emissions. Accounting for quantities of greenhouse gas emissions is done in equivalent tonnes of carbon dioxide where one tonne of methane reduction is equivalent to 21 tonnes of carbon dioxide in terms of global warming potential. Organics in landfills which lead to the generation of methane are considered to be coming from renewable biomass, therefore, the collection and combustion of landfill gas is also considered to reduce GHG emissions from landfills by 100 per cent on a global basis. Destroying landfill gases can also reduce volatile organic compounds, which

Recycling of glass: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Anna Warberg; Merrild, Hanna Kristina; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2009-01-01

-wash facility (combustion of fuels) as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of using the recovered glass waste in other industries and, thereby, avoiding emissions from conventional production. The GHG accounting was presented as aggregated global warming factors (GWFs) for the direct and indirect...

Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

1998-01-01

This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

NARCIS (Netherlands)