WorldWideScience

Sample records for greater risk aversion

  1. Risk Aversion and Emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

  2. Risk Aversion and Job Mobility

    OpenAIRE

    van Huizen, T.M.; Alessie, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Job mobility is inherently risky as workers have limited ex ante information about the quality of outside jobs. Using a large longitudinal Dutch dataset, which includes data on risk preferences elicited through (incentivized) experiments, we examine the relation between risk aversion and job mobility. The results for men show that risk averse workers are less likely to move to other jobs. For women, the evidence that risk aversion affects job mobility is weak. Our empirical findings indicate ...

  3. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovářík, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper first investigates empirically the relationship between risk aversion and social network structure in a large group of undergraduate students. We find that risk aversion is strongly correlated to local network clustering, that is, the probability that one has a social tie to friends of

  4. ARE PEOPLE INEQUALITY AVERSE OR JUST RISK AVERSE?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlsson, Fredrik; Daruvala, Dinky; Johansson-Stenman, Olof

    2001-01-01

    Individuals’ preferences for risk and inequality are measured through experimental choices between hypothetical societies and lotteries. The median relative risk aversion, which is often seen to reflect social inequality aversion, is between 2 and 3. We also estimate the individual inequality aversion, reflecting individuals’ willingness to pay for living in a more equal society. Left-wing voters and women are both more risk- and inequality averse than others. The model allows for non-monoton...

  5. The origin of risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

    2014-12-16

    Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

  6. Peer effects in risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

    2015-01-01

    We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartog, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Jonker, N.

    2002-01-01

    From the stated price of a specified lottery in three unrelated surveys we deduce individuals' Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion. We find that risk aversion indeed falls with income and wealth. Entrepreneurs are less risk averse than employees, civil servants are more risk averse than private

  8. Health shocks and risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Simon; Schmitz, Hendrik

    2016-12-01

    We empirically assess whether a health shock influences individual risk aversion. We use grip strength data to obtain an objective health shock indicator. In order to account for the non-random nature of our data regression-adjusted matching is employed. Risk preferences are traditionally assumed to be constant. However, we find that a health shock increases individual risk aversion. The finding is robust to a series of sensitivity analyses and persists for at least four years after the shock. Income changes do not seem to be the driving mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk Aversion and the Value of Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eeckhoudt, Louis; Godfroid, Phillippe

    2000-01-01

    Explains why risk aversion does not always induce a greater information value, but instead may induce a lower information value when increased. Presents a basic model defining the concept of perfect information value and providing a numerical illustration. Includes references. (CMK)

  10. Risk Aversion and Job Mobility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Huizen, T.M.; Alessie, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Job mobility is inherently risky as workers have limited ex ante information about the quality of outside jobs. Using a large longitudinal Dutch dataset, which includes data on risk preferences elicited through (incentivized) experiments, we examine the relation between risk aversion and job

  11. Leverage Aversion and Risk Parity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asness, Clifford; Frazzini, Andrea; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    The authors show that leverage aversion changes the predictions of modern portfolio theory: Safer assets must offer higher risk-adjusted returns than riskier assets. Consuming the high risk-adjusted returns of safer assets requires leverage, creating an opportunity for investors with the ability...... to apply leverage. Risk parity portfolios exploit this opportunity by equalizing the risk allocation across asset classes, thus overweighting safer assets relative to their weight in the market portfolio....

  12. Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.; Ross, Don

    2017-01-01

    Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in statements of this calibration puzzle is that small-stakes risk aversion is observed over all levels of wealth...

  13. Risk Aversion and Religion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, C.N.; Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.; Vellekoop, N.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Using a dataset for a demographically representative sample of the Dutch population, containing a revealed preference risk attitude measure, as well as very detailed information about participants’ religious background, we study three issues raised in previous literature. First, we find

  14. Risk aversion and religious behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare

    2017-01-01

    would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern...... and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes...

  15. Risk Aversion and Engagement in the Sharing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Santana

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The sharing economy is a new online community that has important implications for offline behavior. This study evaluates whether engagement in the sharing economy is associated with an actor’s aversion to risk. Using a web-based survey and a field experiment, we apply an adaptation of Holt and Laury’s (2002 risk lottery game to a representative sample of sharing economy participants. We find that frequency of activity in the sharing economy predicts risk aversion, but only in interaction with satisfaction. While greater satisfaction with sharing economy websites is associated with a decrease in risk aversion, greater frequency of usage is associated with greater risk aversion. This analysis shows the limitations of a static perspective on how risk attitudes relate to participation in the sharing economy.

  16. Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty and Irreversible Investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Huisman, K.J.M.; Kort, P.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of com-plete markets.Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets.Within a

  17. Risk Aversion, Loss Aversion, and the Demand for Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Eeckhoudt

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze insurance demand when the utility function depends both upon final wealth and the level of losses or gains relative to a reference point. Besides some comparative statics results, we discuss the links with first-order risk aversion, with the Omega measure, and with a tendency to over-insure modest risks that has been been extensively documented in real insurance markets.

  18. Health Security and Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herington, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision-making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Risk Aversion Relates to Cognitive Ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making, rather than to risk preferences....

  20. Risk aversion relates to cognitive ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation might be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice...... tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Structural estimation allowing for heterogeneity of noise yields no significant relation between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our...... results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences....

  1. Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2014-04-01

    Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

  2. Small Stakes Risk Aversion in the Laboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Ross, Don

    Evidence of risk aversion in laboratory settings over small stakes leads to a priori implausible levels of risk aversion over large stakes under certain assumptions. One core assumption in standard statements of this calibration puzzle is that individuals define utility over terminal wealth......, and that terminal wealth is defined as the sum of extra-lab wealth and any wealth accumulated in the lab. This assumption is often used in Expected Utility Theory, as well as popular alternatives such as RankDependent Utility theory. Another core assumption is that the small-stakes risk aversion is observed over...... all levels of wealth, or over a “sufficiently large” range of wealth. Although this second assumption if often viewed as self-evident from the vast experimental literature showing risk aversion over laboratory stakes, it actually requires that lab wealth be varied for a given subject as one takes...

  3. How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

    2013-01-01

    Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

  4. Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

    2001-01-01

    We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

  5. Characterizing the genetic influences on risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrati, Amal

    2014-01-01

    Risk aversion has long been cited as an important factor in retirement decisions, investment behavior, and health. Some of the heterogeneity in individual risk tolerance is well understood, reflecting age gradients, wealth gradients, and similar effects, but much remains unexplained. This study explores genetic contributions to heterogeneity in risk aversion among older Americans. Using over 2 million genetic markers per individual from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on risk preferences using a sample of 10,455 adults. None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are found to be statistically significant determinants of risk preferences at levels stricter than 5 × 10(-8). These results suggest that risk aversion is a complex trait that is highly polygenic. The analysis leads to upper bounds on the number of genetic effects that could exceed certain thresholds of significance and still remain undetected at the current sample size. The findings suggest that the known heritability in risk aversion is likely to be driven by large numbers of genetic variants, each with a small effect size.

  6. Random queues and risk averse users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Palma, André; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    We analyze Nash equilibrium in time of use of a congested facility. Users are risk averse with general concave utility. Queues are subject to varying degrees of random sorting, ranging from strict queue priority to a completely random queue. We define the key “no residual queue” property, which...

  7. Household portfolios and implicit risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bucciol, A.; Miniaci, R.

    2008-01-01

    We derive from a sample of US households the distribution of the risk aversion implicit in their portfolio choice. Our estimate minimizes the distance between the certainty equivalent return generated with observed portfolios and portfolios that are optimal in a mean-variance framework. Taking into

  8. Public Sector Employees: Risk Averse and Altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.W.J.M. Buurman (Margaretha); A.J. Dur (Robert); S. Bossche, van den (Seth)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered

  9. Public sector employees: risk averse and altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buurman, M.; Delfgaauw, J.; Dur, R.; Bossche, S.N.J. van den

    2012-01-01

    We assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered a

  10. Public sector employees: risk averse and altruistic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buurman, M.; Dur, R.; Bossche, S.N.J. van den

    2009-01-01

    We assess whether public sector employees have a stronger inclination to serve others and are more risk averse than employees in the private sector. A unique feature of our study is that we use revealed rather than stated preferences data. Respondents of a large-scale survey were offered a

  11. Risk Aversion and Skewness Preference: a comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.T. Post (Thierry); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractEmpirically, co-skewness of asset returns seems to explain a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation of mean return not explained by beta. Thisfinding is typically interpreted in terms of a risk averse representativeinvestor with a cubic utility function. This comment questions

  12. Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Laibson, David I; Bennett, David A

    2011-09-11

    Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE) = 0.39, p risk aversion. Thus, a lower level of global cognitive function and female sex were associated with greater risk aversion. Moreover, performance on four out of the five cognitive domains was negatively related to risk aversion (i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed); performance on visuospatial abilities was not. A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater

  13. Risk Aversion in Game Shows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2008-01-01

    We review the use of behavior from television game shows to infer risk attitudes. These shows provide evidence when contestants are making decisions over very large stakes, and in a replicated, structured way. Inferences are generally confounded by the subjective assessment of skill in some games......, and the dynamic nature of the task in most games. We consider the game shows Card Sharks, Jeopardy!, Lingo, and finally Deal Or No Deal. We provide a detailed case study of the analyses of Deal Or No Deal, since it is suitable for inference about risk attitudes and has attracted considerable attention....

  14. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovarik, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Agents involved in the formation of a social or economic network typically face uncertainty about the benefits of creating a link. However, the interplay of such uncertainty and risk attitudes has been neglected in the network formation literature. We propose a dynamic network formation model that

  15. Risk aversion and social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovářík, J.; van der Leij, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Agents involved in the formation of a social or economic network typically face uncertainty about the benefits of creating a link. However, the interplay of such uncertainty and risk attitudes has been neglected in the network formation literature. We propose a dynamic network formation model that

  16. Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranlund, John K

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

  17. Correlations of self-esteem and intolerance of ambiguity with risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanson, J C

    2000-10-01

    The current paper reports for 80 undergraduates that risk aversion is greater among those with lower self-esteem scores on Rosenberg's Self-esteem Scale and those with higher scores on Budner's Intolerance of Ambiguity Scale.

  18. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotter, John [Centre for Financial Markets, School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin (Ireland); Hanly, Jim [School of Accounting and Finance, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2010-03-15

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  19. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim

    2010-01-01

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  20. The risks of risk aversion in drug regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Brasseur, Daniel; Breckenridge, Alasdair; Leufkens, Hubert; Raine, June; Salmonson, Tomas; Schneider, Christian K; Rasi, Guido

    2013-12-01

    Drugs are approved by regulatory agencies on the basis of their assessment of whether the available evidence indicates that the benefits of the drug outweigh its risks. In recent years, regulatory agencies have been criticized both for being overly tolerant of risks or being excessively risk-averse, which reflects the challenge in determining an appropriate balance between benefit and risk with the limited data that is typically available before drug approval. The negative consequences of regulatory tolerance in allowing drugs onto the market that turn out to be unsafe are obvious, but the potential for adverse effects on public health owing to the absence of new drugs because of regulatory risk-aversion is less apparent. Here, we discuss the consequences of regulatory risk-aversion for public health and suggest what might be done to best align acceptance of risk and uncertainty by regulators with the interests of public health.

  1. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  2. Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    Within the expected-utility framework, the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave: A person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor. This paper provides a theorem showing that expected-utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes: Within expected-utility theory, for any concave utility function, even very little risk aversion over modest st...

  3. Enhanced Risk Aversion, But Not Loss Aversion, in Unmedicated Pathological Anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; Aylward, Jessica; Roiser, Jonathan P; Robinson, Oliver J

    2017-06-15

    Anxiety disorders are associated with disruptions in both emotional processing and decision making. As a result, anxious individuals often make decisions that favor harm avoidance. However, this bias could be driven by enhanced aversion to uncertainty about the decision outcome (e.g., risk) or aversion to negative outcomes (e.g., loss). Distinguishing between these possibilities may provide a better cognitive understanding of anxiety disorders and hence inform treatment strategies. To address this question, unmedicated individuals with pathological anxiety (n = 25) and matched healthy control subjects (n = 23) completed a gambling task featuring a decision between a gamble and a safe (certain) option on every trial. Choices on one type of gamble-involving weighing a potential win against a potential loss (mixed)-could be driven by both loss and risk aversion, whereas choices on the other type-featuring only wins (gain only)-were exclusively driven by risk aversion. By fitting a computational prospect theory model to participants' choices, we were able to reliably estimate risk and loss aversion and their respective contribution to gambling decisions. Relative to healthy control subjects, pathologically anxious participants exhibited enhanced risk aversion but equivalent levels of loss aversion. Individuals with pathological anxiety demonstrate clear avoidance biases in their decision making. These findings suggest that this may be driven by a reduced propensity to take risks rather than a stronger aversion to losses. This important clarification suggests that psychological interventions for anxiety should focus on reducing risk sensitivity rather than reducing sensitivity to negative outcomes per se. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Mathematical Modeling for Risk Averse Firm Facing Loss Averse Customer’s Stochastic Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungbeom Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To optimize the firm’s profit during a finite planning horizon, a dynamic programming model is used to make joint pricing and inventory replenishment decision assuming that customers are loss averse and the firm is risk averse. We model the loss averse customer’s demand using the multinomial choice model. In this choice model, we consider the acquisition and transition utilities widely used by a mental accounting theory which also incorporate the reference price and actual price. Then, we show that there is an optimal inventory policy which is base-stock policy depending on the accumulated wealth in each period.

  5. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2012-01-01

    Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

  6. Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Steven M; Duffy, John

    2012-01-15

    Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan.

  7. Risk Aversion and Sorting into Public Sector Employment

    OpenAIRE

    Pfeifer, Christian

    2008-01-01

    This research note uses two German data sets – the large-scale German Socio-Economic Panel and unique data from own student questionnaires – to analyse the relationship between risk aversion and the choice for public sector employment. Main results are: (1) more risk averse individuals sort into public sector employment, (2) the impact of career specific and unemployment risk attitudes is larger than the impact of general risk attitudes, and (3) risk taking is rewarded with higher wages in th...

  8. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  9. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  10. Patient risk perceptions for carotid endarterectomy: which patients are strongly averse to surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosworth, Hayden B; Stechuchak, Karen M; Grambow, Steven C; Oddone, Eugene Z

    2004-07-01

    Patient risk perception for surgery may be central to their willingness to undergo surgery. This study examined potential factors associated with patient aversion of surgery. This is a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study that examined patients referred for evaluation of carotid artery stenosis at five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. The study collected demographic, clinical, and psychosocial information related to surgery. This analysis focused on patient response to a question assessing their aversion to surgery. Among the 1065 individuals, at the time of evaluation for carotid endarterectomy (CEA), 66% of patients had no symptoms, 16% had a transient ischemic attack, and 18% had stroke. Twelve percent of patients referred for CEA evaluation were averse to surgery. In adjusted analyses, increased age, black race, no previous surgery, lower level of chance locus of control, less trust of physicians, and less social support were significantly related to greater likelihood of surgery aversion among individuals referred for CEA evaluation. Patient degree of medical comorbidity and a validated measure of preoperative risk score were not associated with increased aversion to surgery. In previous work, aversion to CEA was associated with lack of receipt of CEA even after accounting for patient clinical appropriateness for surgery. We identified important patient characteristics associated with aversion to CEA. Interventions designed to assist patient decision making should focus on these more complex factors related to CEA aversion rather than the simple explanation of clinical usefulness.

  11. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  12. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  13. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 6- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data acquisition. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g. insula, hippocampus and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk averse showed increased activation during decision making in vmPFC and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  14. Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buchman Aron S

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Methods Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15 versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. Results In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE = 0.39, p i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed; performance on visuospatial abilities was not. Conclusion A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater risk aversion in advanced age.

  15. Neural intrinsic connectivity networks associated with risk aversion in old age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, S Duke; Boyle, Patricia A; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra A; Yu, Lei; Edmonds, Emily C; Bennett, David A

    2012-02-01

    Risk aversion is associated with several important real world outcomes. Although the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion have been studied in young persons, little is known of the neurobiological correlates of risk aversion among older persons. Resting-state functional MRI data were collected on 134 non-demented participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a community-based cohort study of aging. Risk aversion was measured using a series of standard questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing, with potential gains varied across questions. Participants determined to be "high" (n=27) and "low" (n=27) in risk aversion were grouped accordingly. Using a spherical seed region of interest in the anterior cingulate cortex, voxel-wise functional connectivity network similarities were observed in bilateral frontal, anterior and posterior cingulate, insula, basal ganglia, temporal, parietal, and thalamic regions. Differences in functional connectivity were observed such that those low in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the superior, middle, and medial frontal regions, as well as cerebellar, parietal, occipital, and inferior temporal regions. Those high in risk aversion had greater connectivity to clusters in the inferior and orbital frontal, parahippocampal, and insula regions, as well as thalamic, parietal, precentral gyrus, postcentral gyrus, and middle temporal regions. Similarities and differences in functional connectivity patterns may reflect the historical recruitment of specific brain regions as a network in the active processing of risk in older adults. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

    2018-05-16

    Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Feasible sets, comparative risk aversion, and comparative uncertainty aversion in bargaining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driesen, B.W.I.; Lombardi, M.; Peters, H.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    We study feasible sets of the bargaining problem under two different assumptions: the players are subjective expected utility maximizers or the players are Choquet expected utility maximizers. For the latter case, we consider the effects on bargaining solutions when players become more risk averse

  18. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-04-01

    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  19. Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ebert, S.; Wiesen, D.

    Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk

  20. Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model with Strategic Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic newsvendor problem focuses on maximizing the expected profit or minimizing the expected cost when the newsvendor faces myopic customers. However, it ignores the customer’s bargain-hunting behavior and risk preference measure of the newsvendor. As a result, we carry out the rational expectation (RE equilibrium analysis for risk-averse newsvendor facing forward-looking customers who anticipate future sales and choose purchasing timing to maximize their expected surplus. We propose the equations satisfied by the RE equilibrium price and quantity for the risk-averse retailer in general setting and the explicit equilibrium decisions for the case where demand follows the uniform distribution and utility is a general power function. We identify the impacts of the system parameters on the RE equilibrium for this specific situation. In particular, we show that the RE equilibrium price for some risk-averse newsvendors is lower than for a risk-neutral retailer and the RE equilibrium stocking quantity for some risk-averse newsvendors is higher than for a risk-neutral retailer. We also find that the RE equilibrium sale price for a risk-averse newsvendor is decreasing in salvage price in some situations.

  1. Five-year-olds do not show ambiguity aversion in a risk and ambiguity task with physical objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rosa; Roberts, Rachel C; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2017-07-01

    Ambiguity aversion arises when a decision maker prefers risky gambles with known probabilities over equivalent ambiguous gambles with unknown probabilities. This phenomenon has been consistently observed in adults across a large body of empirical work. Evaluating ambiguity aversion in young children, however, has posed methodological challenges because probabilistic representations appropriate for adults might not be understood by young children. Here, we established a novel method for representing risk and ambiguity with physical objects that overcomes previous methodological limitations and allows us to measure ambiguity aversion in young children. We found that individual 5-year-olds exhibited consistent choice preferences and, as a group, exhibited no ambiguity aversion in a task that evokes ambiguity aversion in adults. Across individuals, 5-year-olds exhibited greater variance in ambiguity preferences compared with adults tested under similar conditions. This suggests that ambiguity aversion is absent during early childhood and emerges over the course of development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M

    2010-04-01

    This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

  3. Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Among Chinese University Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Desmond

    2015-12-01

    This paper examines gender differences in risk aversion among Chinese university students. Chinese females are proposed to be more risk averse and require a higher risk premium when faced with a gamble option in the gain-domain frame as compared to Chinese males. Two groups of 100 participants each (male = 100 and female = 100 in total) were recruited to fill up questionnaires that included items relating to objective probability lotteries. Within each group, it was found that Chinese males and females did not differ in their risk aversion. However, results show that Chinese males tend to react more readily to rising risk premium by taking up options with higher expected values when compared to Chinese females. Current findings will have useful implications to marketers (particularly, promoters of gambling products) and problem gambling counselors.

  4. Differences in risk aversion between young and older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert SM

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Steven M Albert1, John Duffy21Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, 2Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USAAbstract: Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than the younger (P < 0.05 and had a higher discount rate (15.6%–21.0% versus 10.3%–15.5%, P < 0.01, indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision making across the lifespan.Keywords: aging, decision making, risk, time preference, behavioral economics

  5. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Carter, R McKell; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision-making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 5- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the youngest sample of children in an fMRI decision-making task. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision-making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g., insula, hippocampus, and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk-averse showed increased activation during decision-making in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision-making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  6. Human capital and risk aversion in relational incentive contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvaloey, Ola

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines a self-enforced relational incentive contract between a risk neutral principal and a risk averse agent where the agent's human capital is essential in ex post realization of values. I analyse the effect of outside options on the optimal bonus level, showing how the presence of ex post outside options may impede desirable degrees of performance pay. The effect of risk aversion and incentive responsiveness is analysed by allowing for linear contracts. I show that the first order effect of these parameters are the same as in verifiable contracts, but second order effects show that the optimal bonus level's sensitivity to risk aversion and incentive responsiveness increases with the discount factor. The analysis has interesting implications on firm boundaries and specificity choices. (author)

  7. Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

    2017-12-01

    Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

    2005-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

  9. Heightened aversion to risk and loss in depressed patients with a suicide attempt history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, JaeHyung; Chae, Jeong-Ho; Chung, Yong An; Kralik, Jerald D; Min, Jung-Ah; Huh, HyuJung; Choi, Kyung Mook; Jang, Kuk-In; Lee, Na-Bin; Kim, Sunyoung; Peterson, Bradley S; Jeong, Jaeseung

    2017-09-11

    Suicide attempters have been found to be impaired in decision-making; however, their specific biases in evaluating uncertain outcomes remain unclear. Here we tested the hypothesis that suicidal behavior is associated with heightened aversion to risk and loss, which might produce negative predictions about uncertain future events. Forty-five depressed patients with a suicide attempt history, 47 nonsuicidal depressed patients, and 75 healthy controls participated in monetary decision-making tasks assessing risk and loss aversion. Suicide attempters compared with the other groups exhibited greater aversion to both risk and loss during gambles involving potential loss. Risk and loss aversion correlated with each other in the depressed patients, suggesting that a common pathophysiological mechanism underlies these biases. In addition, emotion regulation via suppression, a detrimental emotional control strategy, was positively correlated with loss aversion in the depressed patients, also implicating impairment in regulatory processes. A preliminary fMRI study also found disrupted neural responses to potential gains and losses in the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and left amygdala, brain regions involved in valuation, emotion reactivity, and emotion regulation. The findings thus implicate heightened negative valuation in decision-making under risk, and impaired emotion regulation in depressed patients with a history of suicide attempts.

  10. Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Stylized facts about statistical properties for short horizon returns in financial markets have been identified in the literature, but a satisfactory understanding for their manifestation is yet to be achieved. In this work, we show that a simple asset pricing model with representative agent is able to generate time series of returns that replicate such stylized facts if the risk aversion coefficient is allowed to change endogenously over time in response to unexpected excess returns under evolutionary forces. The same model, under constant risk aversion, would instead generate returns that are essentially Gaussian. We conclude that an endogenous time-varying risk aversion represents a very parsimonious way to make the model match real data on key statistical properties, and therefore deserves careful consideration from economists and practitioners alike.

  11. Heterogenous Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia; Gayle, Wayne-Roy

    This paper investigates the existence and degree of variation across house holds and over time in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) that is generated by habit forming preferences. To do so, we develop a new nonlinear GMM estimator...... in food consumption. Using these estimates, we develop bounds for the expectation of the implied heterogenous intertemporal elasticity of substitution and relative risk aversion that account for measurement errors and compute asymptotically valid confidence intervals on these bounds. We find...

  12. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Gender differences in financial risk aversion and career choices are affected by testosterone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi; Maestripieri, Dario

    2009-09-08

    Women are generally more risk averse than men. We investigated whether between- and within-gender variation in financial risk aversion was accounted for by variation in salivary concentrations of testosterone and in markers of prenatal testosterone exposure in a sample of >500 MBA students. Higher levels of circulating testosterone were associated with lower risk aversion among women, but not among men. At comparably low concentrations of salivary testosterone, however, the gender difference in risk aversion disappeared, suggesting that testosterone has nonlinear effects on risk aversion regardless of gender. A similar relationship between risk aversion and testosterone was also found using markers of prenatal testosterone exposure. Finally, both testosterone levels and risk aversion predicted career choices after graduation: Individuals high in testosterone and low in risk aversion were more likely to choose risky careers in finance. These results suggest that testosterone has both organizational and activational effects on risk-sensitive financial decisions and long-term career choices.

  14. Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Giorgio

    2002-01-01

    Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

  15. Subjective expected utility with non-increasing risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that assumptions about risk aversion, usually studied under the presupposition of expected utility maximization, have a surprising extra merit at an earlier stage of the measurement work: together with the sure-thing principle, these assumptions imply subjective expected utility

  16. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

  17. The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

  18. A Survey Data Response to the Teaching of Utility Curves and Risk Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Jeffrey; Sharma, Vivek

    2011-01-01

    In many finance and economics courses as well as in practice, the concept of risk aversion is reduced to the standard deviation of returns, whereby risk-averse investors prefer to minimize their portfolios' standard deviations. In reality, the concept of risk aversion is richer and more interesting than this, and can easily be conveyed through…

  19. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  20. Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

    2016-12-01

    The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Hiring a Gay Man, Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baert, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.

  2. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  3. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  4. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi; Na, Seong H.

    2016-01-01

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  5. Identification of risk aversion factor for radiation workers in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fadul, Abdulbagi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Radiation aversion factor reflects the degree of avoidance of radiation exposure which is considered a fundamental element in the optimization of radiation protection and a key factor in determining the real monetary value of the man-Sievert (Sv). This study provides an adjusted risk aversion factor, which was prescribed by the Korea Institute for Nuclear Safety (KINS), a regulatory body in Korea. Specifically, the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) evaluated the monetary value of the man-Sv for Korean Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) workers. This monetary value was assessed by the radiation aversion factor. Consequently, identifying the monetary value of the man-Sv in this study will enhance not only the effectiveness of optimization of radiation protection in Korea but also contribute to reduce doses to As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) when accounting for economic and societal aspects. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain the risk aversion factor for radiation workers in medical and industrial facilities in Korea. The secondary purpose is to evaluate the real monetary value of the man-Sv.These objectives will be accomplished by collecting data from surveys that consider a variety of socio-economic conditions. The value of 1.45 represents considerable avoidance of radiation risk for the majority of NDT radiographers due to familiarity and work experience with radiation hazards. On the other hand, the value 1.57 indicates that most of radiation medical practitioners, in particular, interventional radiologists have a strong will to avoid radiation risk. However, they will accept more risk with incremental salary increases. For international comparison, the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) should be adopted to obtain the alpha values in real term. Certainly, this monetary value of the man-Sv is expected to contribute effectively in optimization of radiation protection in both medical and industrial fields. The findings of this study

  6. Brief Report: Risk-Aversion and Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

    2018-05-30

    Risk-aversion and rationality have both been highlighted as core features of decision making in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). This study tested whether risk-aversion is related to rational decision-making in ASD individuals. ASD and matched control adults completed a decision-making task that discriminated between the use of risk-averse and rational strategies. Results showed that overall, ASD participants were more risk-averse than control participants. Specifically, both groups made similar choices when risk-aversion was the less rational strategy but ASD participants chose more rational options than control participants when risk-aversion was the most rational strategy. This study confirmed that risk-aversion is a core feature of ASD and revealed that ASD individuals can switch their decision-making strategy adaptively to avoid negative consequences.

  7. Reward salience and risk aversion underlie differential ACC activity in substance dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, William H; Fukunaga, Rena; Finn, Peter; Brown, Joshua W

    2015-01-01

    The medial prefrontal cortex, especially the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), has long been implicated in cognitive control and error processing. Although the association between ACC and behavior has been established, it is less clear how ACC contributes to dysfunctional behavior such as substance dependence. Evidence from neuroimaging studies investigating ACC function in substance users is mixed, with some studies showing disengagement of ACC in substance dependent individuals (SDs), while others show increased ACC activity related to substance use. In this study, we investigate ACC function in SDs and healthy individuals performing a change signal task for monetary rewards. Using a priori predictions derived from a recent computational model of ACC, we find that ACC activity differs between SDs and controls in factors related to reward salience and risk aversion between SDs and healthy individuals. Quantitative fits of a computational model to fMRI data reveal significant differences in best fit parameters for reward salience and risk preferences. Specifically, the ACC in SDs shows greater risk aversion, defined as concavity in the utility function, and greater attention to rewards relative to reward omission. Furthermore, across participants risk aversion and reward salience are positively correlated. The results clarify the role that ACC plays in both the reduced sensitivity to omitted rewards and greater reward valuation in SDs. Clinical implications of applying computational modeling in psychiatry are also discussed.

  8. Mean-Preserving-Spread Risk Aversion and The CAPM

    OpenAIRE

    Phelim P. Boyle; Chenghu Ma

    2013-01-01

    This paper establishes conditions under which the classical CAPM holds in equilibrium. Our derivation uses simple arguments to clarify and extend results available in the literature. We show that if agents are risk averse in the sense of mean-preserving-spread (MPS) the CAPM will necessarily hold, along with two-fund separation. We derive this result without imposing any distributional assumptions on asset returns. The CAPM holds even when the market contains an infinite number of securities ...

  9. Personality, risk aversion and speeding: an empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaves, Stephen P; Ellison, Adrian B

    2011-09-01

    Evidence suggests that in addition to demographics, there are strong relationships between facets of drivers' personality (e.g., aggression, thrill-seeking, altruism), aversion to risk and driving behaviour, particularly speeding. However, evidence is muted by the reliance on self-reported driving behaviour, which is thought to not accurately reflect actual driving behaviour. This paper reports on a study of 133 drivers in Sydney, who were asked to complete a short survey to develop their personality and risk aversion profiles and self-reported speeding behaviour. A Global Positioning System (GPS) device was then installed in their vehicle for several weeks as part of a major investigation of driving behaviour from which empirical measures of speeding are derived. Among the most pertinent findings are: (1) the tendency for drivers to both under and over-estimate their propensity to speed, (2) significant heterogeneity in speeding with a small, but notable number of drivers exceeding the limit for more than 20 percent of the distance driven, (3) weak relationships between the personality/risk-aversion measures and actual speeding, and (4) the suggestion that different personality traits appear to influence behaviour in different situations both from self-reported and actual speeding behaviour. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Business corruption, uncertainty and risk aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Tina Søreide

    2006-01-01

    The presence of business-corruption in a market provokes firms to make choices between legal business approaches and illegal bribery. The outcome of a chosen strategy will usually be uncertain at the time the decision is made, and a firm's decision will depend partly on its attitude towards risk. Drawing on the empirical data provided by a survey of 82 Norwegian exporting businesses, the paper proposes a theory about firm's choices between legal and illegal business practices. It begins by de...

  11. Engineering Decisions Under Risk-Averseness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-13

    Y (x′) may be different, especially in the critical upper tail. For example, if Y (x) = g(x,V ) = 100− xV1 − (1− x)V2, where V1 is normally...Econometrica, 47:263–291, 1979. [16] K. Kalinchenko, S. Uryasev, and R.T. Rockafellar. Calibrating risk preferences with generalized CAPM based on mixed

  12. Measuring Risk Aversion to Guide Transportation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dixit, Vinayak K.; Harb, Rami C.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    2015-01-01

    Road pricing may provide a solution to increasing traffic congestion in metropolitan areas. Route, departure time and travel mode choices depend on risk attitudes as commuters perceive the options as having uncertain effects on travel times. We propose that Experimental Economics methods can...... deliver data that uses real consequences and where the context can be varied by the researcher. The approach relies on the controlled manipulation of contexts, similar to what is done in the Stated Choice approach, but builds in actual consequences, similar to the Revealed Preference approach. This paper...

  13. Fairness concerns and risk aversion on recycle pricing strategies: Implications for environmentally friendly supply chains

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jianhong; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Binbin; Li, Lin

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the pricing strategy in the closed-loop supply chain with Nash bargaining when considering fairness concerns and risk aversion. Mainly, the authors argue that behavioral factors (i.e., fairness concern and risk aversion) should be introduced into pricing process. They consider three different pricing models: the first is that both manufacturer and retailer have fairness concern; the second is both manufacturer and retailer have risk aversion and the final is manufacturer ha...

  14. Risk aversion, time preference, and the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S J; Yohe, Gary W

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review reported a social cost of carbon of over $300/tC, calling for ambitious climate policy. We here conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of this result on two crucial parameters: the rate of pure time preference, and the rate of risk aversion. We show that the social cost of carbon lies anywhere in between 0 and $120 000/tC. However, if we restrict these two parameters to matching observed behaviour, an expected social cost of carbon of $60/tC results. If we correct this estimate for income differences across the world, the social cost of carbon rises to over $200/tC.

  15. Labor migration and risk aversion in less developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, E; Stark, O

    1986-01-01

    "In this paper we question the pioneering work of Todaro, which states that rural-to-urban labor migration in less developed countries (LDCs) is an individual response to a higher urban expected income. We demonstrate that rural-to-urban labor migration is perfectly rational even if urban expected income is lower than rural income. We achieve this under a set of fairly stringent conditions: an individual decision-making entity, a one-period planning horizon, and global risk aversion. We obtain the result that a small chance of reaping a high reward is sufficient to trigger rural-to-urban labor migration." excerpt

  16. Shared risk aversion in spontaneous and induced abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalano, Ralph; Bruckner, Tim A; Karasek, Deborah; Adler, Nancy E; Mortensen, Laust H

    2016-05-01

    Does the incidence of spontaneous abortion correlate positively over conception cohorts with the incidence of non-clinically indicated induced abortion as predicted by shared risk aversion? We find that the number of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions correlates in conception cohorts, suggesting that risk aversion affects both the conscious and non-conscious mechanisms that control parturition. Much literature speculates that natural selection conserved risk aversion because the trait enhanced Darwinian fitness. Risk aversion, moreover, supposedly influences all decisions including those that individuals can and cannot report making. We argue that these circumstances, if real, would manifest in conscious and non-conscious decisions to invest in prospective offspring, and therefore affect incidence of induced and spontaneous abortion over time. Using data from Denmark, we test the hypothesis that monthly conception cohorts yielding unexpectedly many non-clinically indicated induced abortions also yield unexpectedly many spontaneous abortions. The 180 month test period (January 1995 through December 2009), yielded 1 351 800 gestations including 156 780 spontaneous as well as 233 280 induced abortions 9100 of which were clinically indicated. We use Box-Jenkins transfer functions to adjust the incidence of spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions for autocorrelation (including seasonality), cohort size, and fetal as well as gestational anomalies over the 180-month test period. We use cross-correlation to test our hypothesized association. We find a positive association between spontaneous and non-clinically indicated induced abortions. This suggests, consistent with our theory, that mothers of conception cohorts that yielded more spontaneous abortions than expected opted more frequently than expected for non-clinically indicated induced abortion. Limitations of our work include that even the world's best registration system

  17. Simulating the market coefficient of relative risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the market standard deviation, the market stock premium, and the skewness and the kurtosis of the risky return. Both the high extremes and the low extremes are considered. With these figures, the upper bound of the market CRRA is 3.021 and the lower bound is 0.466. Log utility, which corresponds to a CRRA of 1, is not excluded.

  18. Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

  19. Empirical analysis of time preferences and risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tu, Q.

    2005-01-01

    One of the important contributions is that a structural model with the reference point and loss aversion for intertemporal choice was developed to estimate the coefficient of loss aversion and the reference points of individuals.

  20. Does Market Experience Attenuate Risk Aversion? Evidence from Landed Farm Households in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melesse, Mequanint Biset; Cecchi, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Risk preferences are important drivers of many relevant economic decisions of farm households. High risk aversion is a well-known trigger of "poverty traps" for farm households in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effect of market experience on risk aversion for a relatively large sample

  1. Does Market Experience Attenuate Risk Aversion? Evidence from Landed Farm Households in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melesse, Mequanint B.; Cecchi, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Risk preferences are important drivers of many relevant economic decisions of farm households. High risk aversion is a well-known trigger of "poverty traps" for farm households in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effect of market experience on risk aversion for a relatively large

  2. Impact of childhood trauma and cognitive emotion regulation strategies on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huh, Hyu Jung; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kwon, Jae-Hyung; Jeong, Jaeseung; Chae, Jeong-Ho

    2016-11-01

    Although poor decision-making ultimately impairs quality of life in depression, few studies describe the clinical characteristics of patients suffering from dysfunctional decision-making. This study aims to delineate the effect of childhood trauma and other personality factors on risk-aversive and loss-aversive patterns of decision-making in patients with depression. A total of 50 depressive patients completed surveys for the measurement of sociodemographic factors, trauma loads and other clinical characteristics, including depression, anxiety, and strategies for emotion regulation. Risk aversion and loss aversion were quantified using probability discounting task and a 50:50 gamble on monetary decision-making task under specified risks. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the factors, predicting risk aversion or loss aversion in depression. Childhood trauma was the most prominent factor predicting loss aversion in patients with depressive disorders. Overall maladaptive emotion regulation strategies were associated with risk aversion. Childhood trauma and specific strategies of emotion regulation contribute to risk or loss aversion in patients with depression. These findings may provide useful insight into elaborative evaluation and interventions to improve decision-making and quality of life in patients with depression.

  3. On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

    OpenAIRE

    Eyal Ert; Ido Erev

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1) framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2) ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the pro...

  4. Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M; Fiebach, Christian J

    2014-01-01

    Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect.

  5. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  6. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  7. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  8. Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: implications of concavity calabration for decision theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, J.C.; Sadiraj, V.

    2006-01-01

    A growing literature reports the conclusions that: (a) expected utility theory does not provide a plausible theory of risk aversion for both small-stakes and large-stakes gambles; and (b) this decision theory should be replaced with an alternative theory characterized by loss aversion. This paper

  9. Noxious facility impact projection: Incorporating the effects of risk aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Developing new sites for noxious facilities has become a complex process with many potential pitfalls. In addition to the need to negotiate conditions acceptable to the host community, siting success may depend on the facility proposer's ability to identify a candidate site that not only meets technical requirements, but that is located in a community or region whose population is not highly averse to the risks associated with the type of facility being proposed. Success may also depend on the proposer accurately assessing potential impacts of the facility and offering an equitable compensation package to the people affected by it. Facility impact assessments, as typically performed, include only the effects of changes in population, employment and economic activity associated with facility construction and operation. Because of their scope, such assessments usually show a short-run, net economic benefit for the host region, making the intensely negative public reaction to some types and locations of facilities seem unreasonable. The impact component excluded from these assessments is the long-run economic effect of public perceptions of facility risk and nuisance characteristics. Recent developments in psychological and economic measurement techniques have opened the possibility of correcting this flaw by incorporating public perceptions in projections of economic impacts from noxious facilities

  10. Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size

    OpenAIRE

    Fehr-Duda, Helga; Bruhin, Adrian; Epper, Thomas F.; Schubert, Renate

    2008-01-01

    How does risk tolerance vary with stake size? This important question cannot be adequately answered if framing effects, nonlinear probability weighting, and heterogeneity of preference types are neglected. We show that, contrary to gains, no coherent change in relative risk aversion is observed for losses. The increase in relative risk aversion over gains cannot be captured by the curvature of the utility function. It is driven predominantly by a change in probability weighting of a majority ...

  11. Risk Aversion: As Perceived by U.S. and Swedish Officers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-10

    marginalized traditional morality . (Furedi 1997, 153f) The value of risk aversion means to not put people at risk and to regulate behavior. The main...difference compared to traditional morality lies in the individualistic orientation of risk aversion (Furedi 1997, 163) Ulrich Beck German Professor of...that distinguishes one group of people from another (Hofstede 2005, 3ff). Studying differences in culture demands a position of cultural relativism

  12. The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

  13. The Unspoken Consequence of Command, Control Communications Technology: Enhanced Micromanagement by Risk-Averse Commanders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carozza, John

    2004-01-01

    .... However, along with its benefits, this command, control and communications (C3) network includes the dangerous consequence of eroding the autonomy of tactical command through enhanced micromanagement by risk-averse operational commanders...

  14. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the performance and risk aversion rate of those indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results of this study were SRI-KEHATI becomes the best performer with the highest risk aversion rate, while Jakarta Islamic Index (JII produces the lowest positive per­formance with the lowest risk aversion rate. This finding shows that sharia stocks’ characters (i.e. usury free could give relieveness and convenience regardless its per­formance.

  15. The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, Sabrina M; Fox, Craig R; Trepel, Christopher; Poldrack, Russell A

    2007-01-26

    People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.

  16. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  17. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  18. Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) JUN 2016 – MAY 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission...decision weights and potential implications of educating leaders with Prospect Theory . Prospect Theory sheds light on how to look at loss and opportunity...the gain–causing risk aversion. Leaders educated in how to analyze a problem using Prospect Theory can rationally approach gains and losses. For the

  19. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  20. Low- and high-testosterone individuals exhibit decreased aversion to economic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Steven J; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A; McLaurin, R Edward; Kuhn, Cynthia M; LaBar, Kevin S; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A

    2011-04-01

    Testosterone is positively associated with risk-taking behavior in social domains (e.g., crime, physical aggression). However, the scant research linking testosterone to economic risk preferences presents inconsistent findings. We examined the relationship between endogenous testosterone and individuals' economic preferences (i.e., risk preference, ambiguity preference, and loss aversion) in a large sample (N = 298) of men and women. We found that endogenous testosterone levels have a significant U-shaped association with individuals' risk and ambiguity preferences, but not loss aversion. Specifically, individuals with low or high levels of testosterone (more than 1.5 SD from the mean for their gender) were risk and ambiguity neutral, whereas individuals with intermediate levels of testosterone were risk and ambiguity averse. This relationship was highly similar in men and women. In contrast to received wisdom regarding testosterone and risk, the present data provide the first robust evidence for a nonlinear association between economic preferences and levels of endogenous testosterone.

  1. Women at greater risk of HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahathir, M

    1997-04-01

    Although many people believe that mainly men get infected with HIV/AIDS, women are actually getting infected at a faster rate than men, especially in developing countries, and suffer more from the adverse impact of AIDS. As of mid-1996, the Joint UN Program on AIDS estimated that more than 10 million of the 25 million adults infected with HIV since the beginning of the epidemic are women. The proportion of HIV-positive women is growing, with almost half of the 7500 new infections daily occurring among women. 90% of HIV-positive women live in a developing country. In Asia-Pacific, 1.4 million women have been infected with HIV out of an estimated total 3.08 million adults from the late 1970s until late 1994. Biologically, women are more vulnerable than men to infection because of the greater mucus area exposed to HIV during penile penetration. Women under age 17 years are at even greater risk because they have an underdeveloped cervix and low vaginal mucus production. Concurrent sexually transmitted diseases increase the risk of HIV transmission. Women's risk is also related to their exposure to gender inequalities in society. The social and economic pressures of poverty exacerbate women's risk. Prevention programs are discussed.

  2. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

    2018-02-21

    Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers' low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier's concerning range. Although the manufacturer's risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier's impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel.

  3. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qinpeng; He, Longfei

    2018-01-01

    Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers’ low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV) model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier’s concerning range. Although the manufacturer’s risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier’s impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel. PMID:29466281

  4. Managing Risk Aversion for Low-Carbon Supply Chains with Emission Abatement Outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinpeng Wang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Reducing carbon emissions, including emission abatement outsourcing at the supply-chain level, is becoming a significant but challenging problem in practice. Confronting this challenge, we therefore break down the practice to focus on a low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier, one manufacturer and one third-party emission-reducing contractor. The contractor offers a carbon reduction service to the manufacturer. In view of the increasing proportion of Greenhouse Gases (GHG emissions and absence of carbon reduction policies in developing countries, we adopt the prospect of consumers’ low-carbon preferences to capture the demand sensitivity on carbon emission. By exploiting the Mean-Variance (MV model, we develop a supply chain game model considering risk aversion. Comparing the supply chain performances of the cases under risk neutrality and risk aversion, we investigate the impact of the risk aversion of the supplier and the manufacturer on the low-carbon supply chain performances, respectively. We show that the risk aversion of chain members will not influence the relationship underlain by the profit-sharing contract between the manufacturer and contractor, whereas they may extend the supplier’s concerning range. Although the manufacturer’s risk aversion has a positive impact on the wholesale price, interestingly, the supplier’s impact on the wholesale price is negative. Furthermore, we propose a contract to coordinate the risk-averse low-carbon supply chain by tuning the aversion levels of the supplier and the manufacturer, respectively. Through numerical study, we draw on managerial insights for industrial practitioners to adopt a low carbon strategy potentially by managing the risk attitudes along the supply chain channel.

  5. Decisions during negatively-framed messages yield smaller risk-aversion-related brain activation in substance-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R; Brown, Joshua W

    2013-12-01

    A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional MRI, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared with nonsubstance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Decisions during Negatively-Framed Messages Yield Smaller Risk-Aversion-Related Brain Activation in Substance-Dependent Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

    2012-01-01

    A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared to non-substance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PMID:23148798

  7. Risk-Averse Suppliers’ Optimal Pricing Strategies in a Two-Stage Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Shen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-averse suppliers’ optimal pricing strategies in two-stage supply chains under competitive environment are discussed. The suppliers in this paper focus more on losses as compared to profits, and they care their long-term relationship with their customers. We introduce for the suppliers a loss function, which covers both current loss and future loss. The optimal wholesale price is solved under situations of risk neutral, risk averse, and a combination of minimizing loss and controlling risk, respectively. Besides, some properties of and relations among these optimal wholesale prices are given as well. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

  8. Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 1: Observations From Cardiac Surgery and Interventional Cardiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

    2017-12-01

    Risk aversion is a potential unintended consequence of health care public reporting. In Part 1 of this review, four possible consequences of this phenomenon are discussed, including the denial of interventions to some high-risk patients, stifling of innovation, appropriate avoidance of futile interventions, and better matching of high-risk patients to more capable providers. We also summarize relevant observational clinical reports and survey results from cardiovascular medicine and surgery, the two specialties from which almost all risk aversion observations have been derived. Although these demonstrate that risk aversion does occur, the empirical data are much more consistent and compelling for interventional cardiology than for cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Twins less frequent than expected among male births in risk averse populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasek, Deborah; Goodman, Julia; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Hartig, Terry; Magganas, Aristotle; Catalano, Ralph

    2015-06-01

    Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

  10. Electricity capacity investment under risk aversion: A case study of coal, gas, and concentrated solar power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Lin; Norman, Catherine S.; Patt, Anthony G.

    2012-01-01

    The policy instrument many economists favor to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to shift new investment towards low carbon technologies is the tradable allowance system. Experience with this instrument has been mixed, with a crucial design issue being the choice of whether to auction allowances to firms, or to grandfather them based on historical emissions. In this paper, we examine the changing incentives of investment in different technologies, when investors are risk averse and are expecting an allowance system with a certain allocation rule but do not know if the policy is going to take place in the near future. Investors also cannot fully predict future investment costs for the low-carbon technology. We apply a game theoretic model to examine the combined effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the actions of potential investors into high and low carbon generating capacity, under both allocation rules and uncertain costs. We find that uncertainty and risk aversion do have implications towards investment incentives. We discuss policy implications of these findings. - Highlights: ► We examined capacity investments under alternative carbon permit allocation schemes. ► Uncertainty in future permit markets’ existence reduces investments into renewables. ► If permits are grandfathered, risk averse companies decrease renewable investment. ► Risk aversion minimizes the effects of uncertainty if carbon permits are auctioned.

  11. Cross-sectional survey: risk-averse French general practitioners are more favorable toward influenza vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massin, Sophie; Ventelou, Bruno; Nebout, Antoine; Verger, Pierre; Pulcini, Céline

    2015-01-29

    We tested the following hypotheses: (i) risk-averse general practitioners (GPs) are more likely to be vaccinated against influenza; (ii) and risk-averse GPs recommend influenza vaccination more often to their patients. In risk-averse GPs, the perceived benefits of the vaccine and/or the perceived risks of the infectious disease might indeed outweigh the perceived risks of the vaccine. In 2010-2012, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a nationwide French representative sample of 1136 GPs. Multivariate analyses adjusted for four stratification variables (age, gender, urban/suburban/rural practice location and annual patient consultations) and for GPs' characteristics (group/solo practice, and occasional practice of alternative medicine, e.g., homeopathy) looked for associations between their risk attitudes and self-reported vaccination behavior. Individual risk attitudes were expressed as a continuous variable, from 0 (risk-tolerant) to 10 (risk-averse). Overall, 69% of GPs reported that they were very favorable toward vaccination in general. Self-reported vaccination coverage was 78% for 2009/2010 seasonal influenza and 62% for A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Most GPs (72%) reported recommending the pandemic influenza vaccination to at-risk young adults in 2009, but few than half (42%) to young adults not at risk. In multivariate analyses, risk-averse GPs were more often vaccinated against seasonal (marginal effect=1.3%, P=0.02) and pandemic influenza (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.02). Risk-averse GPs recommended the pandemic influenza vaccination more often than their more risk-tolerant colleagues to patients without risk factors (marginal effect=1.7%, P=0.01), but not to their at-risk patients and were more favorable toward vaccination in general (marginal effect=1.5%, P=0.04). Individual risk attitudes may influence GPs' practices regarding influenza vaccination, both for themselves and their patients. Our results suggest that risk-averse GPs may perceive the risks

  12. Risk-Averse Evolutionary Game Model of Aviation Joint Emergency Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study effects of risk-averse attitude of both participators in aviation joint emergency response on the coevolution of cooperation mechanisms and individual preferences between airport and nonprofit organization. First, based on the current aviation joint emergency mechanism in China, we put forward two mechanisms to select the joint nonprofit organization, including reputation cooperation and bidding competition. Meanwhile, we consider two preferences including altruism and selfishness. Then we build replicator dynamics equations using the theory of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR taking risk aversion attitude into account. Finally, we introduce the factor of government and give all participators some suggestions. We show that the risk-averse attitude of the other game participator affects the one participator’s decision and the effects subject to some parameters.

  13. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  14. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO 2 -intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO 2 -intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  15. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

  16. Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lappi, Pauli, E-mail: pauli.lappi@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikka, Kimmo, E-mail: kimmo.ollikka@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikainen, Markku, E-mail: markku.ollikainen@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

    2010-02-15

    This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion.

  17. Conformists or Rebels? Relative Risk Aversion, Educational Decisions, and Social Class Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests the theory of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA), which argues that educational decisions are intended to minimize the risk of downward social class mobility. We propose a structural model which distinguishes the instantaneous utility of educational decisions from the future utility...

  18. Financial literacy, risk aversion and choice of mortgage type by households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, R.; Brounen, Dirk; Neuteboom, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes how financial literacy and reported willingness to take financial risk impact a household’s choice of mortgage type. The results show that households reporting higher financial literacy and lower risk aversion are 55 to 97 % more likely to opt for interest-only mortgages. The

  19. Optimal investment and indifference pricing when risk aversion is not monotone: SAHARA utility functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Pelsser, A.; Vellekoop, M.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract. We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the dis- tinguishing feature that they implement the assumption that agents may become less risk-averse for very low values of wealth. This means that SAHARA utility can be used to characterize risk gambling behavior of an

  20. Negative learning bias is associated with risk aversion in a genetic animal model of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabel, Steven J; Murphy, Ryan T; Malinow, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The lateral habenula (LHb) is activated by aversive stimuli and the omission of reward, inhibited by rewarding stimuli and is hyperactive in helpless rats-an animal model of depression. Here we test the hypothesis that congenital learned helpless (cLH) rats are more sensitive to decreases in reward size and/or less sensitive to increases in reward than wild-type (WT) control rats. Consistent with the hypothesis, we found that cLH rats were slower to switch preference between two responses after a small upshift in reward size on one of the responses but faster to switch their preference after a small downshift in reward size. cLH rats were also more risk-averse than WT rats-they chose a response delivering a constant amount of reward ("safe" response) more often than a response delivering a variable amount of reward ("risky" response) compared to WT rats. Interestingly, the level of bias toward negative events was associated with the rat's level of risk aversion when compared across individual rats. cLH rats also showed impaired appetitive Pavlovian conditioning but more accurate responding in a two-choice sensory discrimination task. These results are consistent with a negative learning bias and risk aversion in cLH rats, suggesting abnormal processing of rewarding and aversive events in the LHb of cLH rats.

  1. Money, well-being, and loss aversion: does an income loss have a greater effect on well-being than an equivalent income gain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J; Wood, Alex M; Banks, James; Clark, Andrew E; Brown, Gordon D A

    2013-12-01

    Higher income is associated with greater well-being, but do income gains and losses affect well-being differently? Loss aversion, whereby losses loom larger than gains, is typically examined in relation to decisions about anticipated outcomes. Here, using subjective-well-being data from Germany (N = 28,723) and the United Kingdom (N = 20,570), we found that losses in income have a larger effect on well-being than equivalent income gains and that this effect is not explained by diminishing marginal benefits of income to well-being. Our findings show that loss aversion applies to experienced losses, challenging suggestions that loss aversion is only an affective-forecasting error. By failing to account for loss aversion, longitudinal studies of the relationship between income and well-being may have overestimated the positive effect of income on well-being. Moreover, societal well-being might best be served by small and stable income increases, even if such stability impairs long-term income growth.

  2. Optimal Ordering Policy of a Risk-Averse Retailer Subject to Inventory Inaccuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijing Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Inventory inaccuracy refers to the discrepancy between the actual inventory and the recorded inventory information. Inventory inaccuracy is prevalent in retail stores. It may result in a higher inventory level or poor customer service. Earlier studies of inventory inaccuracy have traditionally assumed risk-neutral retailers whose objective is to maximize expected profits. We investigate a risk-averse retailer within a newsvendor framework. The risk aversion attitude is measured by conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR. We consider inventory inaccuracy stemming both from permanent shrinkage and temporary shrinkage. Two scenarios of reducing inventory shrinkage are presented. In the first scenario, the retailer conducts physical inventory audits to identify the discrepancy. In the second scenario, the retailer deploys an automatic tracking technology, radiofrequency identification (RFID, to reduce inventory shrinkage. With the CVaR criterion, we propose optimal policies for the two scenarios. We show monotonicity between the retailer’s ordering policy and his risk aversion degree. A numerical analysis provides managerial insights for risk-averse retailers considering investing in RFID technology.

  3. Priority setting in health care: disentangling risk aversion from inequality aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echazu, Luciana; Nocetti, Diego

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce a tractable social welfare function that is rich enough to disentangle attitudes towards risk in health outcomes from attitudes towards health inequalities across individuals. Given this preference specification, we evaluate how the introduction of uncertainty over the severity of illness and over the effectiveness of treatments affects the optimal allocation of healthcare resources. We show that the way in which uncertainty affects the optimal allocation within our proposed specification may differ sharply from that in the standard expected utility framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinqin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.

  5. Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

    2018-05-01

    We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact of gender and personality traits (BFI-10) on risk-aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pavlicek, Antonin; Sudzina, Frantisek

    2017-01-01

    The paper investigates impact of gender and personality traits on risk-aversion. The research was conducted in the Czech Republic using an on-line questionnaire. Data were collected between December 2016 and January 2017. Big Five Inventory-10 was used to measure personality traits. A validated...

  7. A simultaneous approach to the estimation of risk aversion and the subjective time discount rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, A.S.; van Praag, B.M.S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze a sample of 1832 individuals who responded to six randomly generated lottery questions that differ with respect to chance, prize and the timing of the draw. Using a model that explicitly allows for consumption smoothing, we obtain an estimate of relative risk aversion of 82.

  8. A note on risk aversion and labour market outcomes: further evidence from German survey data

    OpenAIRE

    Pfeifer, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Using the large-scale German Socio-Economic Panel, this note reports direct empirical evidence for significant correlations between risk aversion and labour market outcomes (full-time employment, temporary agency work, fixed-term contracts, employer change, quits, training, wages, and job satisfaction).

  9. Risk Aversion and Effort in an Incentive Pay Scheme with Multiplicative Noise: Theory and Experimental Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.V. Zubanov (Nick)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe application of the classical "linear" model of incentive pay to the case when the noise is multiplicative to effort generates two predictions for a given strength of incentives: 1) more risk-averse workers will put in less effort, and 2) setting a performance target will weaken the

  10. The Emotional Information Processing System is Risk Averse: Ego-Depletion and Investment Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. de Langhe (Bart); S.T.L.R. Sweldens (Steven); S.M.J. van Osselaer (Stijn); M.A. Tuk (Mirjam)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractTwo experiments show that a shortage of self-regulatory resources results in more risk aversion in mixed-gamble (gain/loss) situations. The findings support a dual process view that distinguishes between a rational and an affective information processing system, in which self-regulatory

  11. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.; Conejo, Antonio J.; Langodan, Sabique; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  12. Risk-averse formulations and methods for a virtual power plant

    KAUST Repository

    Lima, Ricardo M.

    2017-12-15

    In this paper we address the optimal operation of a virtual power plant using stochastic programming. We consider one risk-neutral and two risk-averse formulations that rely on the conditional value at risk. To handle large-scale problems, we implement two decomposition methods with variants using single- and multiple-cuts. We propose the utilization of wind ensembles obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to quantify the uncertainty of the wind forecast. We present detailed results relative to the computational performance of the risk-averse formulations, the decomposition methods, and risk management and sensitivities analysis as a function of the number of scenarios and risk parameters. The implementation of the two decomposition methods relies on the parallel solution of subproblems, which turns out to be paramount for computational efficiency. The results show that one of the two decomposition methods is the most efficient.

  13. Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

  14. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanju Zhou

    Full Text Available This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  15. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  16. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farsi, Mehdi [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zuerichbergstr. 18, Zurich 8032 (Switzerland)

    2010-06-15

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components. (author)

  17. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farsi, Mehdi

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components.

  18. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

    2017-07-15

    Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

  20. Greater Caregiving Risk, Better Infant Memory Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifkin-Graboi, Anne; Quan, Jeffry; Richmond, Jenny; Goh, Shaun Kok Yew; Sim, Lit Wee; Chong, Yap Seng; Francois-Bureau, Jean; Chen, Helen; Qiu, Anqi

    2018-04-16

    Poor early life care often relates to cognitive difficulties. However, newer work suggests that in early-life, adversity may associate with enhanced or accelerated neurodevelopment. We examine associations between postnatal caregiving risks (i.e., higher self-reported postnatal-anxiety and lower observed maternal sensitivity) and infant relational memory (i.e. via deferred imitation and relational binding). Using subsamples of 67-181 infants (aged 433-477 post-conceptual days, or roughly five to seven months since birth) taking part in the GUSTO study, we found such postnatal caregiving risk significantly predictive of "better" performance on a relational binding task following a brief delay, after Bonferroni adjustments. Subsequent analyses suggest that the association between memory and these risks may specifically be apparent amongst infants spending at least 50% of their waking hours in the presence of their mothers. Our findings echo neuroimaging research concerning similar risk exposure and larger infant hippocampal volume, and likewise underscore the importance of considering developmental context in understanding early life experience. With this in mind, these findings caution against the use of cognitive outcomes as indices of experienced risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan D James

    Full Text Available Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9 years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03. More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002 and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006. Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015 and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026 persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment; the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078. These findings are consistent with the

  2. Cognitive decline is associated with risk aversion and temporal discounting in older adults without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Bryan D; Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Han, S Duke; Bennett, David A

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion and temporal discounting are preferences that are strongly linked to sub-optimal financial and health decision making ability. Prior studies have shown they differ by age and cognitive ability, but it remains unclear whether differences are due to age-related cognitive decline or lower cognitive abilities over the life span. We tested the hypothesis that cognitive decline is associated with higher risk aversion and temporal discounting in 455 older persons without dementia from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging in Chicago. All underwent repeated annual cognitive evaluations using a detailed battery including 19 tests. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions: participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment versus a gamble in which they could gain more or nothing; potential gamble gains varied across questions. Temporal discounting: participants were asked to choose between an immediate, smaller payment and a delayed, larger one; two sets of questions addressed small and large stakes based on payment amount. Regression analyses were used to examine whether prior rate of cognitive decline predicted level of risk aversion and temporal discounting, controlling for age, sex, and education. Over an average of 5.5 (SD=2.9) years, cognition declined at an average of 0.016 units per year (SD=0.03). More rapid cognitive decline predicted higher levels of risk aversion (p=0.002) and temporal discounting (small stakes: p=0.01, high stakes: p=0.006). Further, associations between cognitive decline and risk aversion (p=0.015) and large stakes temporal discounting (p=0.026) persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or mild cognitive impairment); the association of cognitive decline and small stakes temporal discounting was no longer statistically significant (p=0.078). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that

  3. Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Jørgensen, Kasper

    model to explain asset prices with a low relative risk aversion (RRA) of 9.8 and a low intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of 0:11. We also show that the proposed preferences allow an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to match the equity premium, the bond premium, and the risk-free rate......This paper extends the class of Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences with a new utility kernel that disentangles uncertainty about the consumption trend (long-run risk) from short-term variation around this trend (cyclical risk). Our estimation results show that these preferences enable the long-run risk...

  4. On the descriptive value of loss aversion in decisions under risk: Six clarifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eyal Ert

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies of loss aversion in decisions under risk have led to mixed results. Losses appear to loom larger than gains in some settings, but not in others. The current paper clarifies these results by highlighting six experimental manipulations that tend to increase the likelihood of the behavior predicted by loss aversion. These manipulations include: (1 framing of the safe alternative as the status quo; (2 ensuring that the choice pattern predicted by loss aversion maximizes the probability of positive (rather than zero or negative outcomes; (3 the use of high nominal (numerical payoffs; (4 the use of high stakes; (5 the inclusion of highly attractive risky prospects that creates a contrast effect; and (6 the use of long experiments in which no feedback is provided and in which the computation of the expected values is difficult. In addition, the results suggest the possibility of learning in the absence of feedback: The tendency to select simple strategies, like ``maximize the worst outcome'' which implies ``loss aversion'', increases when this behavior is not costly. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  5. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denys Yemshanov

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion.While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and

  6. Female babies and risk-aversion: Causal evidence from hospital wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogrebna, Ganna; Oswald, Andrew J; Haig, David

    2018-03-01

    Using ultrasound scan data from paediatric hospitals, and the exogenous 'shock' of learning the gender of an unborn baby, the paper documents the first causal evidence that offspring gender affects adult risk-aversion. On a standard Holt-Laury criterion, parents of daughters, whether unborn or recently born, become almost twice as risk-averse as parents of sons. The study demonstrates this in longitudinal and cross-sectional data, for fathers and mothers, for babies in the womb and new-born children, and in a West European nation and East European nation. These findings may eventually aid our understanding of risky health behaviors and gender inequalities. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    1999-01-01

    Theories of OPEC such as price leadership, cartel, or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for OPEC members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues. Yet individual OPEC members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential. The cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among OPEC members, and even some non-OPEC members, may have to do with risk aversion. This paper describes an alternative theory for OPEC behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function similar to Fishburn and Koehenberger (1979, Decision Science 10, 503-518), and Friedman and Savage (1948, Journal of political Economy 56). The model shows possible low oil production behavior. (author)

  8. Application of a General Risk Management Model to Portfolio Optimization Problems with Elliptical Distributed Returns for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Decision Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show

  9. PERAN PRODUCT CUES AND RISK AVERSION PADA PURCHASE INTENTION DAN POST PURCHASE FEELINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Rejeki Ekasasi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThe research aimed to investigate the influence of extrinsic cues and intrinsic cues and risk aversion towards purchase intention and post-purchase feeling of counterfeited computer software and music CD. This research study collected data from two populations which are students and employee. Approximately 128 respondents involved to give respond for the survey. The analysis using Structural Equation Model (SEM show that product cues and risk aversion give different significant impact towards purchase intention and post-purchase feeling of counterfeited computer software and music CD. The research concluded that risk aversion and extrinsic cues has a significant influence to purchase intention of counterfeited computer software while it does not appear similar result to music CD. Moreover, the study revealed that for both counterfeited computer software and music CD, the purchase intention is proven to have negative significant influence towards post-purchase feelings.Keywords: risk aversion, extrinsic cues, intrinsic cues, purchase intention, post-purchase feelingsAbstrakTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh atribut ekstrinsik dan intrinsic produk serta aspek menolak resiko terhadap niat beli dan perasaan paska beli software computer dan CD music bajakan. Penelitian ini diharapkan akan memperoleh sebuah model dengan pendekatan cultural dan strategi bisnis untuk memblokir atau mengurangi produk bajakan yang dapat diakses konsumen di pasar. Data primer akan dikumpulkan dari dua populasi, kelompok mahasiswa dan kelompok pekerja, dari empat kota besar di Indonesia yaitu Jakarta, Semarang, Surabaya, dan Yogyakarta. Lebih kurang 128 responden terlibat dalam penelitian ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aspek atribut produk yang bersifat ekstrinsik dan aspek menolak resiko terbukti memiliki hubungan signifikan mempengaruhi niat beli software computer, akan tetapi lain tidak demikian pada niat beli CD music bajakan

  10. Optimal Management of Supply Disruptions when Contracting with Unreliable, Risk-averse, Suppliers

    OpenAIRE

    Parlane, Sarah; Tsai, Ying-Yi

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the optimal management of supply disruptions by a manufacturer who uses order inflation and/or investments in process reliability when contracting two risk-averse suppliers. We consider that these investments can be subject to moral hazard. Technically we solve a newsvendor optimization problem using a random capacity model of disruption. In such a model, the order size does not affect the average production but impacts the probability of disruption. When investments a...

  11. Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf? Risk Aversion and Gender Discrimination in Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jason Hartford and Nic Spearman

    2014-01-01

    This study exploits a natural experiment to evaluate the gender bias effect associated with negative marking due to gender-differentiated risk aversion. This approach avoids framing effects that characterize experimental evaluation of negative marking assessments. Evidence of a gender bias against female students is found. Quantile regressions indicate that female students in higher quantiles are substantially more adversely affected by negative marking. This distribution effect has been over...

  12. From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Paulsen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

  13. Potential Impact of Risk and Loss Aversion on the Process of Accepting Kidneys for Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Raymond L; Green, Ellen P; Reddy, Kunam S; Moss, Adyr; Kaplan, Bruce

    2017-07-01

    Behavioral economic theory suggests that people make decisions based on maximizing perceived value; however, this may be influenced more by the risk of loss rather than of potential gain. Additionally, individuals may seek certainty over uncertainty. These are termed loss aversion and risk aversion, respectively. Loss aversion is particularly sensitive to how the decision is "framed." Thus, labeling a kidney as high Kidney Donor Profile Index results in higher discard rates because this creates a nonlinearity in perceived risk. There is also evidence that the perceived loss due to regulatory sanction results in increased organ discard rates. This may be due to the overuse of terminology that stresses regulatory sanctions and thus perpetuates fear of loss through a form of nudging. Our goal is to point out how these concepts of behavioral economics may negatively influence the decision process to accept these suboptimal organs. We hope to make the community more aware of these powerful psychological influences and thus potentially increase the utilization of these suboptimal organs. Further, we would urge regulatory bodies to avoid utilizing strategies that frame outcomes in terms of loss due to flagging and build models that are less prone to uncertain expected versus observed outcomes.

  14. Altered risk-aversion and risk-taking behaviour in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Juwon; Kim, Eun-Jin; Lim, Sewon; Shin, Dong-Won; Kang, Yeo-Jin; Bae, Seung-Min; Yoon, Hyung-Kun; Oh, Kang-Seob

    2012-09-01

    Normal individuals are risk averse for decisions framed as gains but risk taking for decisions framed as losses. This framing effect is supposed to be attenuated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. We investigated the effects of highlighting rewards versus highlighting punishments on the risky decision-making of AD patients. Fourteen mild to moderate AD patients (Mini-Mental Status Examination score, 11-23; Clinical Dementia Rating, 1-2) and 16 healthy volunteers were recruited for the study. Subjects completed a computerized task on risky decision-making in which mathematically equivalent dilemmas were presented in terms of opportunities to gain monetary rewards ('positive frame') or avoid suffering losses ('negative frame'). As expected, AD patients chose more risky options under the positive frame than the negative frame, contrary to the control group (Z =-2.671, P= 0.007). The normal difference in the distribution of risky choices between positively and negatively framed dilemmas was significantly reduced in the AD group after we adjusted for years of education, mean age and depression (F= 5.321, P= 0.030). Deliberation time did not differ significantly between the two groups. These results suggest that AD patients making high-risk choices is associated with attenuated sensitivity to the emotional frames that highlight rewards or punishments, possibly reflecting altered evaluations of prospective gains and losses. © 2012 The Authors. Psychogeriatrics © 2012 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  15. Dynamic asset allocation and downside-risk aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We find that

  16. Risk aversion and religious behaviour: Analysis using a sample of Danish twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare; Kiil, Astrid; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2017-08-01

    Economics offers an analytical framework to consider human behaviour including religious behaviour. Within the realm of Expected Utility Theory, religious belief and activity could be interpreted as an insurance both for current life events and for afterlife rewards. Based on that framework, we would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern regards the problems of spurious correlations due to underlying omitted or unobservable characteristics shaping both religious activities and risk attitudes. This paper examines empirically the demand for religion by analysing the association between risk attitudes on the one hand, and church attandance and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes and religious behaviour is driven by the subgroup of individuals who believe in an afterlife. In addition, when re-analysing our results using panel data analyses which cancel out shared factors among twin pairs, we find that the correlation found between risk aversion and religious behaviour is no longer significant indicating that other factors might explain differences in religious behaviour. Caution is needed in the interpretation of our results as the insignificant association between risk aversion and religious behaviour in the panel data analyses potentially might be due to measurement error causing attenuation bias or lack of variation within twin pairs rather than the actual absence of an association. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Which currency to set price? A model of multiple countries and risk averse firm

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Wang

    2004-01-01

    A crucial question centering many recent debates in the international macroeconomics is under which currency the price is sticky. This paper provides a microfoundation to study the firm¡¦s choice of price setting currency in the sticky price model. I first prove that the risk preference is a secondary consideration in the choice of the price setting currency. This result questions the claim that the currency forward market can change the currency choice of risk averse firms. Then I extend the...

  18. Cooperative game analysis of a supply chain with one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwen Li

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper considers a two-echelon supply chain composed of one risk-neutral supplier and two risk-averse retailers. The retailers obtain production from the supplier and sell them to the market. Based on the cooperative game theory, the paper studies the appropriate profit allocation of the supply chain when all the players cooperate with each other, where the two retailers face a price-sensitive stochastic demand. The two retailers can either determine their retail prices independently, or decide whether or not to cooperate with each other. Design/methodology/approach: To allocate the system-wide profit among upstream risk-neutral suppliers and two risk-averse downstream retailers, this paper constructed a cooperative game model, considered as the supermodularity of the characteristic function and the Shapley value of the game. Findings and Originality/value: By analyzing the construction’s cooperative game model, the results show that the profit of the whole supply chain is the highest in the grand coalition structure. This paper also shows that the core of our cooperative game is nonempty, and has the supermodularity property. Based on this, we have computed the Shapley value-based profit allocation for the whole supply chain in a fair manner. Originality/value: Although there are a lot of literature examined risk aversion in a supply chain, but they did not consider using cooperative game to study this problem. This the first study is in the context of a supply chain with risk aversion problem.

  19. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  20. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  1. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

  2. Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulreich, Stefan; Gerhardt, Holger; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2016-04-01

    In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional--in particular, fear-related--processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet, but not self-centered impulsivity, attenuated the effect of incidental fear cues on loss aversion, consistent with reduced fear reactivity. Together, these results highlight the sensitivity of loss aversion to the affective context. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Loss Aversion in the Laboratory

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, William G.; Oxoby, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    We report the results of a laboratory experiment testing for the existence of loss aversion in a standard risk aversion protocol (Holt and Laury, 2002). In our experiment, participants earn and retain money for a week before using it in an incentivized risk preference elicitation task. We find loss aversion, distinct from risk aversion, has a significant effect on behavior resulting in participants requiring higher compensation to bear risk.

  4. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  5. Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Kazem; Conejo, Antonio J.; Carrion, Miguel; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

  6. Multi-market energy procurement for a large consumer using a risk-aversion procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zare, Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, P.O. Box 14115-111 (Iran); Conejo, Antonio J. [Castilla-La Mancha University, Ciudad Real (Spain); Carrion, Miguel [Castilla-La Mancha University, Toledo (Spain); Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-01-15

    This paper provides a technique to derive the bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a large consumer that procures its electricity demand in both the day-ahead market and a subsequent adjustment market. Price uncertainty is modeled using concepts derived from information gap decision theory, which allows deriving robust decisions with respect to price volatility. Risk aversion is built implicitly within the proposed model. Correlations among prices in the day-ahead and the adjustment markets are properly modeled. The proposed technique is illustrated through a realistic case study. (author)

  7. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK AVERSION RATE FOR SEVERAL STOCK INDICES IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Robiyanto Robiyanto

    2017-01-01

    There are numerous stock indices in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Several of them are LQ-45, MBX, DBX, JII, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. Unfortunately there are limi­ted researches which have been done to measure those indices performance specifically. The same condition also occurs on risk aversion level usage in Indonesia Stock Exchange, only few numbers of researches use this me­a­surement in the portfolio valuation. Based on that, this research measured the perfor...

  8. Serotonin 2A receptors contribute to the regulation of risk-averse decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina

    2013-01-01

    Pharmacological studies point to a role of the neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) in regulating the preference for risky decisions, yet the functional contribution of specific 5-HT receptors remains to be clarified. We used pharmacological fMRI to investigate the role of the 5-HT2A receptors...... in processing negative outcomes and regulating risk-averse behavior. During fMRI, twenty healthy volunteers performed a gambling task under two conditions: with or without blocking the 5-HT2A receptors. The volunteers repeatedly chose between small, likely rewards and large, unlikely rewards. Choices were...

  9. Coordinating a Supply Chain with Risk-Averse Agents under Demand and Consumer Returns Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the optimal order decision in a supply chain when it faces uncertain demand and uncertain consumer returns. We build consumer returns model with decision-makers’ risk preference under mean-variance objective framework and discuss supply chain coordination problem under wholesale-price-only policy and the manufacturer’s buyback policy, respectively. We find that, with wholesale price policy, the supply chain cannot be coordinated whether the supply chain agents are risk-neutral or risk-averse. However, with buyback policy, the supply chain can be coordinated and the profit of the supply chain can be arbitrarily allocated between the manufacturer and the retailer. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the impact of stochastic consumer returns and the supply chain agents’ risk attitude on the optimal order decision.

  10. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  11. The (Null) Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Lina; Andersson, David; Morrison, India; Västfjäll, Daniel; Tinghög, Gustav

    2017-01-01

    Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants ( n = 120) were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition) or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects), while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task), altruism (donating money to a charitable organization), and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task). We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch-and, by extension, oxytocin-in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  12. Impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop selection of risk averse farmers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Peter; Moran, Dominic

    2013-01-01

    The UK Government policy is for the area of perennial energy crops in the UK to expand significantly. Farmers need to choose these crops in preference to conventional rotations for this to be achievable. This paper looks at the potential level and variability of perennial energy crop incomes and the relation to incomes from conventional arable crops. Assuming energy crop prices are correlated to oil prices the results suggests that incomes from them are not well correlated to conventional arable crop incomes. A farm scale mathematical programming model is then used to attempt to understand the affect on risk averse farmers crop selection. The inclusion of risk reduces the energy crop price required for the selection of these crops. However yields towards the highest of those predicted in the UK are still required to make them an optimal choice, suggesting only a small area of energy crops within the UK would be expected to be chosen to be grown. This must be regarded as a tentative conclusion, primarily due to high sensitivity found to crop yields, resulting in the proposal for further work to apply the model using spatially disaggregated data. - Highlights: ► Energy crop and conventional crop incomes suggested as uncorrelated. ► Diversification effect of energy crops investigated for a risk averse farmer. ► Energy crops indicated as optimal selection only on highest yielding UK sites. ► Large establishment grant rates to substantially alter crop selections.

  13. Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A MIQP approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem. ► Head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints are considered. ► As new contribution to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios. ► Also, risk aversion is incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through CVaR. ► A case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems is provided. - Abstract: In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

  14. The (Null Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Koppel

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants (n = 120 were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects, while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task, altruism (donating money to a charitable organization, and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task. We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch—and, by extension, oxytocin—in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  15. Impact of Risk Aversion on the Operation of Hydroelectric Reservoirs in the Presence of Renewable Energy Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Jovanović

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The increasing share of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar generation, has a direct impact on the planning and operation of power systems. In addition, the consideration of risk criteria within the decision support tools used by market participants (generation companies, energy services companies, and arbitrageurs is becoming a common activity given the increasing level of uncertainties faced by them. As a consequence, the behavior of market participants is affected by their level of risk aversion, and the application of equilibrium-based models is a common technique used in order to simulate their behavior. This paper presents a multi-stage market equilibrium model of risk-averse agents in order to analyze up to what extent the operation of hydro reservoirs can be affected by the risk-averse profile of market participants in a context of renewable energy source penetration and fuel price volatility.

  16. Unpleasant odors increase aversion to monetary losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancak, Andrej; Xie, Yuxin; Fallon, Nicholas; Bulsing, Patricia; Giesbrecht, Timo; Thomas, Anna; Pantelous, Athanasios A

    2015-04-01

    Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains of equal nominal values. Unpleasant odors not only influence affective state but have also been shown to activate brain regions similar to those mediating loss aversion. Therefore, we hypothesized a stronger loss aversion in a monetary gamble task if gambles were associated with an unpleasant as opposed to pleasant odor. In thirty human subjects, unpleasant (methylmercaptan), pleasant (jasmine), and neutral (clean air) odors were presented for 4 s. At the same time, uncertain gambles offering an equal chance of gain or loss of a variable amount of money, or a prospect of an assured win were displayed. One hundred different gambles were presented three times, each time paired with a different odor. Loss aversion, risk aversion, and logit sensitivity were evaluated using non-linear fitting of individual gamble decisions. Loss aversion was larger when prospects were displayed in the presence of methylmercaptan compared to jasmine or clean air. Moreover, individual differences in changes in loss aversion to the unpleasant as compared to pleasant odor correlated with odor pleasantness but not with odor intensity. Skin conductance responses to losses during the outcome period were larger when gambles were associated with methylmercaptan compared to jasmine. Increased loss aversion while perceiving an unpleasant odor suggests a dynamic adjustment of loss aversion toward greater sensitivity to losses. Given that odors are biological signals of hazards, such adjustment of loss aversion may have adaptive value in situations entailing threat or danger. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. An Index of Loss Aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köbberling, V.; Wakker, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    To a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic utility,

  18. An Index of Loss Aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Köbberling (Veronika); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractTo a considerable extent, risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion. Several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature. The one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components: basic

  19. Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

    2012-01-01

    The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

  20. Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

    2012-09-01

    The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

  1. An evolutionary game model for behavioral gambit of loyalists: Global awareness and risk-aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfinito, E.; Barra, A.; Beccaria, M.; Fachechi, A.; Macorini, G.

    2018-02-01

    We study the phase diagram of a minority game where three classes of agents are present. Two types of agents play a risk-loving game that we model by the standard Snowdrift Game. The behaviour of the third type of agents is coded by indifference with respect to the game at all: their dynamics is designed to account for risk-aversion as an innovative behavioral gambit. From this point of view, the choice of this solitary strategy is enhanced when innovation starts, while is depressed when it becomes the majority option. This implies that the payoff matrix of the game becomes dependent on the global awareness of the agents measured by the relevance of the population of the indifferent players. The resulting dynamics is nontrivial with different kinds of phase transition depending on a few model parameters. The phase diagram is studied on regular as well as complex networks.

  2. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Personal finance and life insurance under separation of risk aversion and elasticity of substitution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Steffensen, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    aversion from elasticity of inter-temporal substitution, we introduce certainty equivalents. We propose a time-inconsistent global optimization problem, and we present a verification theorem for an equilibrium control. In the special case without mortality risk, we discover that our optimization approach...... is equivalent to recursive utility optimization with Epstein–Zin preferences in the sense that the two approaches lead to the same result. We find this interesting since our optimization problem has an intuitive interpretation as a global maximization of certainty equivalents and since recursive utility......, in contrast to our approach, gives rise to severe differentiability problems. Also, our optimization approach can there be seen as a generalization of recursive utility optimization with Epstein–Zin preferences to include mortality risk and life insurance....

  4. Risk and Interaction Aversion: Screening Mechanisms in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canova, Gabriel A.; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

    2017-09-01

    When the interactions between cooperators (C) and defectors (D) can be partially avoided within a population, there may be an overall enhancement of cooperation. One example of such screening mechanism occurs in the presence of risk-averse agents (loners, L) that are neutral towards others, i.e., both L and its opponent, whatever its strategy, receive the same payoff. Their presence in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game sustains the coexistence of cooperators and defectors far beyond the level attained in their absence. Another screening mechanism is a heterogeneous landscape obtained, for example, by site diluting the lattice. In this case, cooperation is enhanced with some fraction of such inactive, interaction-averse sites. By considering the interplay of both mechanisms, we show that there is an explosive increase in the range of densities, just above the percolation threshold, where neutrality is prevented and loners become extinct, the behavior reverting to the pure PD game. Interestingly, this occurs despite defectors being usually abundant in that region. This has to be compared with the corresponding loner-free region in the undiluted case that, besides being very small, is dominated by cooperators.

  5. Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.

  6. Gender Differences in Sleep Deprivation Effects on Risk and Inequality Aversion: Evidence from an Economic Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Michele; Bottasso, Anna; Tempesta, Daniela; Carrieri, Marika; De Gennaro, Luigi; Ponti, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Excessive working hours—even at night—are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects’ risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced) participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females’ reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making. PMID:25793869

  7. Gender differences in sleep deprivation effects on risk and inequality aversion: evidence from an economic experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Ferrara

    Full Text Available Excessive working hours--even at night--are becoming increasingly common in our modern 24/7 society. The prefrontal cortex (PFC is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sleep loss and, consequently, the specific behaviors subserved by the functional integrity of the PFC, such as risk-taking and pro-social behavior, may be affected significantly. This paper seeks to assess the effects of one night of sleep deprivation on subjects' risk and social preferences, which are probably the most explored behavioral domains in the tradition of Experimental Economics. This novel cross-over study employs thirty-two university students (gender-balanced participating to 2 counterbalanced laboratory sessions in which they perform standard risk and social preference elicitation protocols. One session was after one night of undisturbed sleep at home, and the other was after one night of sleep deprivation in the laboratory. Sleep deprivation causes increased sleepiness and decreased alertness in all subjects. After sleep loss males make riskier decisions compared to the rested condition, while females do the opposite. Females likewise show decreased inequity aversion after sleep deprivation. As for the relationship between cognitive ability and economic decisions, sleep deprived individuals with higher cognitive reflection show lower risk aversion and more altruistic behavior. These results show that one night of sleep deprivation alters economic behavior in a gender-sensitive way. Females' reaction to sleep deprivation, characterized by reduced risky choices and increased egoism compared to males, may be related to intrinsic psychological gender differences, such as in the way men and women weigh up probabilities in their decision-making, and/or to the different neurofunctional substrate of their decision-making.

  8. Flexible Multi-Objective Transmission Expansion Planning with Adjustable Risk Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Qiu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-objective transmission expansion planning (TEP framework. Rather than using the conventional deterministic reliability criterion, a risk component based on the probabilistic reliability criterion is incorporated into the TEP objectives. This risk component can capture the stochastic nature of power systems, such as load and wind power output variations, component availability, and incentive-based demand response (IBDR costs. Specifically, the formulation of risk value after risk aversion is explicitly given, and it aims to provide network planners with the flexibility to conduct risk analysis. Thus, a final expansion plan can be selected according to individual risk preferences. Moreover, the economic value of IBDR is modeled and integrated into the cost objective. In addition, a relatively new multi-objective evolutionary algorithm called the MOEA/D is introduced and employed to find Pareto optimal solutions, and tradeoffs between overall cost and risk are provided. The proposed approach is numerically verified on the Garver’s six-bus, IEEE 24-bus RTS and Polish 2383-bus systems. Case study results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively reduce cost and hedge risk in relation to increasing wind power integration.

  9. Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager’s perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker’s risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.

  10. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  11. Reporting individual surgeon outcomes does not lead to risk aversion in abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saratzis, A; Thatcher, A; Bath, M F; Sidloff, D A; Bown, M J; Shakespeare, J; Sayers, R D; Imray, C

    2017-02-01

    INTRODUCTION Reporting surgeons' outcomes has recently been introduced in the UK. This has the potential to result in surgeons becoming risk averse. The aim of this study was to investigate whether reporting outcomes for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery impacts on the number and risk profile (level of fitness) of patients offered elective treatment. METHODS Publically available National Vascular Registry data were used to compare the number of AAAs treated in those centres across the UK that reported outcomes for the periods 2008-2012, 2009-2013 and 2010-2014. Furthermore, the number and characteristics of patients referred for consideration of elective AAA repair at a single tertiary unit were analysed yearly between 2010 and 2014. Clinic, casualty and theatre event codes were searched to obtain all AAAs treated. The results of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were assessed. RESULTS For the 85 centres that reported outcomes in all three five-year periods, the median number of AAAs treated per unit increased between the periods 2008-2012 and 2010-2014 from 192 to 214 per year (p=0.006). In the single centre cohort study, the proportion of patients offered elective AAA repair increased from 74% in 2009-2010 to 81% in 2013-2014, with a maximum of 84% in 2012-2013. The age, aneurysm size and CPET results (anaerobic threshold levels) for those eventually offered elective treatment did not differ significantly between 2010 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS The results do not support the assumption that reporting individual surgeon outcomes is associated with a risk averse strategy regarding patient selection in aneurysm surgery at present.

  12. Innovation and risk-averse firms: Options on carbon allowances as a hedging tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szolgayová, Jana; Golub, Alexander; Fuss, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    In a regulated world where government seeks to decarbonize the energy sector, firms face both indirect and direct costs of emitting CO 2 . This study seeks to take the perspective of the firm, which needs to maximize profits implying minimization of (carbon) cost as well. In this study, the firm can compose the cost-optimal portfolio of (a) investing into carbon-saving technology, which is currently expensive, (b) investing into carbon-saving technology R and D and adopt this technology at a later point, (c) buying allowances per ton of emitted CO 2 in a carbon market (alternatively this could be formulated as a tax), and (d) buying offsets traded in the same market, which are based on reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Uncertainties in the cost of carbon coming from a lack of commitment in policy-making leading to fluctuations in markets and uncertainty in the payoff of R and D activities could provide disincentives to incur large up-front sunk cost and raise the economic value of being flexible. We apply a real options approach with stochastic carbon-saving technology costs and stochastic CO 2 costs. Assuming that firms are risk-averse, they will not only value flexibility, but also risk reductions from diversification over the different (carbon mitigation) options. - Highlights: • We study the compliance problem of a private firm under both regulatory and technological uncertainty in an optimal control setting. • When firms are risk-averse, forest-backed offset options will be part of the compliance portfolio. • R and D creates valuable options on new technology

  13. Regret Aversion Bias dan Risk Tolerance Investor Muda Jakarta dan Surabaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yohnson Yohnson

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision behavior is an interesting topic in finance research. Bailey and Kinerson’s (2005 research found that individual risk tolerance and experienced regret significantly influenced investment decisions. Anticipation of potential future regret did not predict subsequent investment decision behavior. Specifically, this research also wants to know the effects of a person’s experienced regret and anticipated regret or the effects of individual risk tolerance on investment decision behavior in Jakarta and Surabaya. Respondent of this research is 323 students from UK Petra who represent young investors from Surabaya and students from UPH who represent young investors from Jakarta. The method of research is experimental study and the design of research is 2x2x2 (between subject with experienced regret (time deposit and stock as first variable, anticipated regret (time deposit and stock as second variable and risk tolerance (high and low as third variable This study finds that an individual risk tolerance significantly influences decisions. Regret aversion bias does not influence young investors in Indonesia. (We assume that it is because the character of Indonesian investors is different from foreign investors. The couse of this is supposedly the unique characteristics of Indonesian investors and the different view points between Indonesian investors and investors from other countries. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Perilaku keputusan investasi sangat menarik untuk diteliti. Dalam penelitian Bailey dan Kinerson (2005 ditemukan risk tolerance dan experienced regret mempengaruhi keputusan investasi. Anticipated regret tidak dapat dipakai sebagai predictor perilaku keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini juga ingin mengetahui experienced regret, anticipated regret atau risk tolerance yang lebih mempengaruhi perilaku keputusan investasi di Jakarta dan Surabaya. Responden yang diteliti sebesar 323 mahasiswa berasal dari UK Petra yang mewakili

  14. In uncertainty we trust: a median voter model with risk aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel A. Yakovlev

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The principal-agent problem and uncertainty are some of the key factors affecting financial and political markets. Fear of the unknown plays an important role in human decision making, including voting. This article describes a theoretical model where voter risk aversion towards uncertainty gives political incumbents a significant advantage over their challengers, exacerbating the principal-agent problem between voters and legislators. The model presented predicts that a rise in voter uncertainty concerning the challenger allows the incumbent to deviate from the median voter’s policy preference without losing the election. This model reconciles the paradoxical coexistence of ideological shirking and high incumbent reelection rates without abandoning the elegant median voter framework.

  15. Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

    2018-02-01

    We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

  16. Assessing the Impact of the Funding Environment on Researchers' Risk Aversion: The Use of Citation Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoller, Frank A.; Zimmerling, Eric; Boutellier, Roman

    2014-01-01

    The funding environment has a profound impact on researchers' behavior. In particular, it influences their freedom and readiness to conduct research ventures with highly uncertain outcomes. In this conceptual paper, we propose a concise new methodology to evaluate researchers' risk aversion based on citation statistics. The derived…

  17. Effects of incorporating environmental cost and risk aversion on economic values of pig breeding goal traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, B M; de Mey, Y; Bastiaansen, J W M; Oude Lansink, A G J M

    2018-06-01

    Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. Transcranial direct current stimulation over prefrontal cortex diminishes degree of risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Jia, Yongmin; Luo, Jun

    2015-06-26

    Previous studies have established that transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a powerful technique for manipulating the activity of the human cerebral cortex. Many studies have found that weighing the risks and benefits in decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). We studied whether participants change the balance of risky and safe responses after receiving tDCS applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex. A total of 60 healthy volunteers performed a risk task while they received either anodal tDCS over the right prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the left; anodal tDCS over the left prefrontal cortex, with cathodal over the right; or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose less risky options after receiving sham stimulation, demonstrating that the task might be highly influenced by the "wealth effect". There was no statistically significant change after either right anodal/left cathodal or left anodal/right cathodal tDCS, indicating that both types of tDCS impact the participants' degrees of risk aversion, and therefore, counteract the wealth effect. We also found gender differences in the participants' choices. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making. Application of tDCS to the right/left DLPFC may impact a person's attitude to taking risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk aversion, time preference and health production: theory and empirical evidence from Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    This paper quantifies the relationship between risk aversion and discount rates on the one hand and height and weight on the other. It studies this link in the context of poor households in Cambodia. Evidence is based on an original dataset that contains both experimental measures of risk taking and impatience along with anthropometric measurements of children and adults. The aim of the paper is to (i) explore the importance of risk and time preferences in explaining undernutrition and (ii) compare the evidence stemming from poor households to strikingly similar findings from industrialized countries. It uses an inter-generational approach to explain observed correlations in adults and children that is inspired by the height premium on labor markets. Parents can invest in the health capital of their child to increase future earnings and their consumption when old: better nutrition during infancy translates into better human capital and better wages, and ultimately better financial means to take care of elderly parents. However this investment is subject to considerable uncertainty, since parents neither perfectly foresee economic conditions when the child starts earning nor fully observe the ability to transform nutritional investments into long-term health capital. As a result, risk taking households have taller and heavier children. Conversely, impatience does not affect child health. In the case of adults, only weight and the body mass index (BMI), but not height, are positively and moderately correlated with risk taking and impatience. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. College Students with ADHD at Greater Risk for Sleep Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaultney, Jane F.

    2014-01-01

    The pediatric literature indicates that children with ADHD are at greater risk for sleep problems, daytime sleepiness, and some sleep disorders than children with no diagnosed disability. It has not been determined whether this pattern holds true among emerging adults, and whether comorbid sleep disorders with ADHD predict GPA. The present study…

  1. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Risk-averse decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Eun Jeong; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative analysis and assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Decision models that have been utilized during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic component rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward consequences and risk only to a limited degree. The application of models reflecting these attitudes to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events that may impact civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. In particular, the phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with severe consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate the role and characteristics of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.

  3. Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market. A case-study of the 2006 compliance event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Ielpo, Florian; Mercier, Ludovic

    2009-01-01

    This article evaluates the impact of the 2006 compliance event on changes in investors' risk aversion on the European carbon market using the newly available option prices dataset. Thus, we aim at capturing the specific event that occurred on April 2007 as the European Commission disclosed the 2006 verified emissions data. Following the methodology existing for stock indices, we recover empirically risk aversion adjustments on the period 2006-2007 by estimating first the risk-neutral distribution from option prices and second the actual distribution from futures on the European Climate Exchange. Our results show evidence of a dramatic change in the market perception of risk around the 2006 yearly compliance event that has not been assessed yet. (author)

  4. A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

  5. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

    2015-01-01

    We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for

  6. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoanna Arlina Kurnianingsih

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning.We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61 to 80 years old were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic

  7. Enhanced striatal sensitivity to aversive reinforcement in adolescents versus adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galván, Adriana; McGlennen, Kristine M

    2013-02-01

    Neurodevelopmental changes in mesolimbic regions are associated with adolescent risk-taking behavior. Numerous studies have shown exaggerated activation in the striatum in adolescents compared with children and adults during reward processing. However, striatal sensitivity to aversion remains elusive. Given the important role of the striatum in tracking both appetitive and aversive events, addressing this question is critical to understanding adolescent decision-making, as both positive and negative factors contribute to this behavior. In this study, human adult and adolescent participants performed a task in which they received squirts of appetitive or aversive liquid while undergoing fMRI, a novel approach in human adolescents. Compared with adults, adolescents showed greater behavioral and striatal sensitivity to both appetitive and aversive stimuli, an effect that was exaggerated in response to delivery of the aversive stimulus. Collectively, these findings contribute to understanding how neural responses to positive and negative outcomes differ between adolescents and adults and how they may influence adolescent behavior.

  8. Clinical responsibility, accountability, and risk aversion in mental health nursing: a descriptive, qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Jenni; Crowe, Marie

    2014-08-01

    A number of recent, highly-publicized, perceived health-care service failures have raised concerns about health professionals' accountabilities. Relevant to these concerns, the present study sought to examine how mental health nurses understood clinical responsibility and its impact on their practice. A descriptive, qualitative design was used, and a convenience sample of 10 mental health nurses was recruited from specialist inpatient and outpatient mental health settings in Canterbury, New Zealand. Data were collected using semistructured interviews, and the transcriptions were analysed using an inductive, descriptive approach. Three major themes were identified: being accountable, fostering patient responsibility, and shifting responsibility. Being accountable involved weighing up patients' therapeutic needs against the potential for blame in an organizational culture of risk management. Fostering patient responsibility described the process of deciding in what situations patients could take responsibility for their behaviour. Shifting responsibility described the culture of defensive practice fostered by the organizational culture of risk aversion. The present study highlighted the challenges mental health nurses experience in relation to clinical responsibility in practice, including the balancing required between the needs of patients, the needs of the organization, and the perceived need for self-protection. © 2014 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  9. Coordinating Contracts for Two-Stage Fashion Supply Chain with Risk-Averse Retailer and Price-Dependent Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minli Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available When the demand is sensitive to retail price, revenue sharing contract and two-part tariff contract have been shown to be able to coordinate supply chains with risk neutral agents. We extend the previous studies to consider a risk-averse retailer in a two-echelon fashion supply chain. Based on the classic mean-variance approach in finance, the issue of channel coordination in a fashion supply chain with risk-averse retailer and price-dependent demand is investigated. We propose both single contracts and joint contracts to achieve supply chain coordination. We find that the coordinating revenue sharing contract and two-part tariff contract in the supply chain with risk neutral agents are still useful to coordinate the supply chain taking into account the degree of risk aversion of fashion retailer, whereas a more complex sales rebate and penalty (SRP contract fails to do so. When using combined contracts to coordinate the supply chain, we demonstrate that only revenue sharing with two-part tariff contract can coordinate the fashion supply chain. The optimal conditions for contract parameters to achieve channel coordination are determined. Numerical analysis is presented to supplement the results and more insights are gained.

  10. Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

  11. Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

    2017-01-01

    Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making.

  12. Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan Hafezalkotob

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set of risk-averse retailers. The strategic decisions are frequently taking precedence over tactical ones. Therefore, we first find equilibrium of tactical decisions for each possible scenario of supply chain network. Afterwards, we find optimal distribution network of the new supply chain by the scenario evaluation method. Numerical example, including sensitivity analysis will illustrate how the conservative behaviors of chains' members affect expected demand, profit, and utility of each distribution scenario.

  13. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  14. Strategic and Tactical Design of Competing Decentralized Supply Chain Networks with Risk-Averse Participants for Markets with Uncertain Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Makui, Ahmad; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar

    2011-01-01

    An integrated equilibrium model for tactical decisions in network design is developed. We consider a decentralized supply chain network operating in markets under uncertain demands when there is a rival decentralized chain. The primary assumption is that two chains provide partial substitutable products to the markets, and markets' demands are affected by tactical decisions such as price, service level, and advertising expenditure. Each chain consists of one risk-averse manufacturer and a set...

  15. The Influence of Financial Literacy, Risk Aversion and Expectations on Retirement Planning and Portfolio Allocation in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan

    2018-12-01

    Full Text Available The two objectives of this paper are to examine the effect of financial literacy, risk aversion and expectations on retirement planning; and, to investigate the effect of these antecedents on the retire- ment portfolio allocation. Data was collected via a self-administered questionnaire from a sample of 270 working individuals in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Logistic and ordered probit regressions were employed to analyse the first and second objective, respectively. The results from the logistic regression indicate that future expectations significantly influence the probability of planning for retirement. Meanwhile, individu- als with higher financial literacy and lower risk aversion are more likely to hold risky assets in their retirement portfolios. Subsequently, two-sample t-test and one-way ANOVA tests were conducted to further examine the differences in financial literacy, risk aversion and expectations, across demographic sub-groups. The study contributes to the literature by holistically incorporating the behavioural aspects that affect retirement planning and by exploring an uncharted issue of retirement planning—namely, the retirement portfolio allocation.

  16. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

    2011-06-01

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

  17. Possibility of dying as a unified explanation of why we discount the future, get weaker with age, and display risk-aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhry, Bhagwan

    2011-01-01

    I formulate a simple and parsimonious evolutionary model that shows that because most species face a possibility of dying because of external factors, called extrinsic mortality in the biology literature, it can simultaneously explain (a) why we discount the future, (b) get weaker with age, and (c) display risk-aversion. The paper suggests that testable restrictions—across species, across time, or across genders—among time preference, aging, and risk-aversion could be analyzed in a simple framework .

  18. The Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task: An Individual Level Betrayal Aversion Measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aimone, Jason; Ball, Sheryl; King-Casas, Brooks

    2015-01-01

    Research on betrayal aversion shows that individuals' response to risk depends not only on probabilities and payoffs, but also on whether the risk includes a betrayal of trust. While previous studies focus on measuring aggregate levels of betrayal aversion, the connection between an individual's own betrayal aversion and other individually varying factors, including risk preferences, are currently unexplored. This paper develops a new task to elicit an individual's level of betrayal aversion that can then be compared to individual characteristics. We demonstrate the feasibility of our new task and show that our aggregate individual results are consistent with previous studies. We then use this classification to ask whether betrayal aversion is correlated with risk aversion. While we find risk aversion and betrayal aversion have no significant relationship, we do observe that risk aversion is correlated with non-social risk preferences, but not the social, betrayal related, risk component of the new task.

  19. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisciella, P.; Vespucci, M.T.; Bertocchi, M.; Zigrino, S.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a multi-stage stochastic optimization model for the generation capacity expansion problem of a price-taker power producer. Uncertainties regarding the evolution of electricity prices and fuel costs play a major role in long term investment decisions, therefore the objective function represents a trade-off between expected profit and risk. The Conditional Value at Risk is the risk measure used and is defined by a nested formulation that guarantees time consistency in the multi-stage model. The proposed model allows one to determine a long term expansion plan which takes into account uncertainty, while the LCoE approach, currently used by decision makers, only allows one to determine which technology should be chosen for the next power plant to be built. A sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the risk weighting factor and budget amount. - Highlights: • We propose a time consistent risk averse multi-stage model for capacity expansion. • We introduce a case study with uncertainty on electricity prices and fuel costs. • Increased budget moves the investment from gas towards renewables and then coal. • Increased risk aversion moves the investment from coal towards renewables. • Time inconsistency leads to a profit gap between planned and implemented policies.

  1. An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

    2015-02-01

    Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

  2. Too Risk Averse to Stay Honest? Business Corruption, Uncertainty and Attitudes Toward Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Soreide, T.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of business-corruption provokes firms to make choices between legal business approaches and illegal bribery. The outcome of a chosen strategy will usually be uncertain at the time the decision is made, and a firm's decision will depend partly on its attitude towards risk. Drawing on empirical results about business corruption, this paper describes the risks, uncertainties and benefits attached to bribery, and specifies their impact on firms' propensity to offer bribes. it then de...

  3. Behavioral and neural correlates of loss aversion and risk avoidance in adolescents and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily E; Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Galván, Adriana

    2013-01-01

    Individuals are frequently faced with risky decisions involving the potential for both gain and loss. Exploring the role of both potential gains and potential losses in predicting risk taking is critical to understanding how adolescents and adults make the choice to engage in or avoid a real-life risk. This study aimed to examine the impact of potential losses as well as gains on adolescent decisions during risky choice in a laboratory task. Adolescent (n=18) and adult (n=16) participants underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a mixed gambles task, and completed questionnaires measuring real-world risk-taking behaviors. While potential loss had a significantly greater effect on choice than potential gain in both adolescents and adults and there were no behavioral group differences on the task, adolescents recruited significantly more frontostriatal circuitry than adults when choosing to reject a gamble. During risk-seeking behavior, adolescent activation in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) was negatively correlated with self-reported likelihood of risk taking. During risk-avoidant behavior, mPFC activation of in adults was negatively correlated with self-reported benefits of risk-taking. Taken together, these findings reflect different neural patterns during risk-taking and risk-avoidant behaviors in adolescents and adults. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

    2015-01-01

    We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  5. Prospect theory and body mass: Characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Lark eLim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

  6. Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou; Craig Johnston

    2017-01-01

    Markov decision process models were extended to reflect some consequences of the risk attitude of forestry decision makers. One approach consisted of maximizing the expected value of a criterion subject to an upper bound on the variance or, symmetrically, minimizing the variance subject to a lower bound on the expected value.  The other method used the certainty...

  7. Stochastic risk-averse coordinated scheduling of grid integrated energy storage units in transmission constrained wind-thermal systems within a conditional value-at-risk framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemmati, Reza; Saboori, Hedayat; Saboori, Saeid

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, wind power resources have been integrated in the power systems increasingly. Besides confirmed benefits, utilization of large share of this volatile source in power generation portfolio has been faced system operators with new challenges in terms of uncertainty management. It is proved that energy storage systems are capable to handle projected uncertainty concerns. Risk-neutral methods have been proposed in the previous literature to schedule storage units considering wind resources uncertainty. Ignoring risk of the cost distributions with non-desirable properties may result in experiencing high costs in some unfavorable scenarios with high probability. In order to control the risk of the operator decisions, this paper proposes a new risk-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to make optimal decisions on energy storage and thermal units in a transmission constrained hybrid wind-thermal power system. Risk-aversion procedure is explicitly formulated using the conditional value-at-risk measure, because of possessing distinguished features compared to the other risk measures. The proposed model is a mixed integer linear programming considering transmission network, thermal unit dynamics, and storage devices constraints. The simulations results demonstrate that taking the risk of the problem into account will affect scheduling decisions considerably depend on the level of the risk-aversion. - Highlights: • Risk of the operation decisions is handled by using risk-averse programming. • Conditional value-at-risk is used as risk measure. • Optimal risk level is obtained based on the cost/benefit analysis. • The proposed model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming. • The unit commitment is integrated with ESSs and wind power penetration.

  8. Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-12-07

    Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

  9. Do no harm: Risk aversion versus risk management in the context of pedagogic frailty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie A. Hulme

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Innovation in teaching ensures that education remains fit for purpose in a changing world. The model of pedagogic frailty proposes that educators may perceive innovation as risky, which may inhibit innovation, and thus reduce opportunities to update learning experiences. Within psychology, psychological literacy (the skills, knowledge and attributes acquired as outcomes of studying psychology is becoming increasingly central to the curriculum. Educators are teaching more applied psychology, which requires new pedagogic approaches and are adopting and modelling core professional values espoused as components of psychological literacy, including evidence-based practice, ethics, and professional competence. We argue that psychology educators (and those from other disciplines may assess the risk of innovation through the lenses of these professional values. The decision to maintain ‘safe’ practices may reflect a risk management approach, rather than frailty. We propose a model whereby frailty may depend on social context and risk in different educational circumstances. The professional values associated with psychological literacy and similar integrative disciplinary constructs, which at first seem to hinder innovation, may promote innovation which is creative and safe, and will facilitate the development of a rigorous evidence base to inform future practice.

  10. Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz eTyszka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Several years ago, Cohen, Dearnaley, and Hansel [1] demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly [2]. The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar, where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.

  11. Alcohol reduces aversion to ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyszka, Tadeusz; Macko, Anna; Stańczak, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    Several years ago, Cohen et al. (1958) demonstrated that under the influence of alcohol drivers became more risk prone, although their risk perception remained unchanged. Research shows that ambiguity aversion is to some extent positively correlated with risk aversion, though not very highly (Camerer and Weber, 1992). The question addressed by the present research is whether alcohol reduces ambiguity aversion. Our research was conducted in a natural setting (a restaurant bar), where customers with differing levels of alcohol intoxication were offered a choice between a risky and an ambiguous lottery. We found that alcohol reduced ambiguity aversion and that the effect occurred in men but not women. We interpret these findings in terms of the risk-as-value hypothesis, according to which, people in Western culture tend to value risk, and suggest that alcohol consumption triggers adherence to socially and culturally valued patterns of conduct different for men and women.

  12. Leveraging Enterprise Risk Management: Opportunity for Greater Relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.; Baird, Robert; Neugebauer, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) gained a foothold in higher education during the first decade of the 21st century. College and university governing board members came to their board service with the perspective and experience of having served on corporate boards and in corporate leadership positions where ERM was in active use. Trustees asked…

  13. Does a too risk-averse approach to the implementation of new radiotherapy technologies delay their clinical use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R; Nyström, H; Fiorino, C; Thwaites, D

    2015-07-01

    Radiotherapy is a generally safe treatment modality in practice; nevertheless, recent well-reported accidents also confirm its potential risks. However, this may obstruct or delay the introduction of new technologies and treatment strategies/techniques into clinical practice. Risks must be addressed and judged in a realistic context: risks must be assessed realistically. Introducing new technology may introduce new possibilities of errors. However, delaying the introduction of such new technology therefore means that patients are denied the potentially better treatment opportunities. Despite the difficulty in quantitatively assessing the risks on both sides of the possible choice of actions, including the "lost opportunity", the best estimates should be included in the overall risk-benefit and cost-benefit analysis. Radiotherapy requires a sufficiently high level of support for the safety, precision and accuracy required: radiotherapy development and implementation is exciting. However, it has been anxious with a constant awareness of the consequences of mistakes or misunderstandings. Recent history can be used to show that for introduction of advanced radiotherapy, the risk-averse medical physicist can act as an electrical fuse in a complex circuit. The lack of sufficient medical physics resource or expertise can short out this fuse and leave systems unsafe. Future technological developments will continue to present further safety and risk challenges. The important evolution of radiotherapy brings different management opinions and strategies. Advanced radiotherapy technologies can and should be safely implemented in as timely a manner as possible for the patient groups where clinical benefit is indicated.

  14. Scrotal neoplasia: would truck drivers be at greater risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Seabra

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze how scrotal neoplasias have been managed during the past decade and to question possible factors or professions associated to its presence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated every case reported from 1995 to 2005 at our hospital. We described the clinical scenario, complementary exams, treatments and outcomes. We also tried to verify if there was any risk, predisposing factors or professions that would explain the cancer origin. RESULTS: Six cases were reviewed. Out of these, three patients were truck drivers. Five of them showed restricted lesions without inguinal lymph nodes enlargement. Histologically, six patients presented squamous carcinoma, with two of them having the verrucous type. The median age of patients was 52 years old (31 to 89. The five patients who are still alive had their lesions completely removed with safety margin and primary closure. CONCLUSIONS: We have noticed that the scrotal carcinoma behavior is similar to that of the penis, where removal of the lesion and study of the regional lymph nodes help to increase the patient survival rate. The outstanding fact was that three out of six patients were truck drivers, raising the hypothesis that such profession, maybe due to the contact or attrition with the diesel exhaust expelled by the engine or to sexual promiscuity, would imply in a larger risk of developing this rare neoplasia.

  15. Therapeutic Decisions in Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention: The Role of Aversion to Ambiguity and Physicians' Risk Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sposato, Luciano A; Stirling, Devin; Saposnik, Gustavo

    2018-04-09

    Knowledge-to-action gaps influence therapeutic decisions in atrial fibrillation (AF). Physician-related factors are common, but the least studied. We evaluated the prevalence and determinants of physician-related factors and knowledge-to-action gaps among physicians involved in the management of AF patients. In this cross-sectional study, participants from 6 South American countries recruited during an educational program answered questions regarding 16 case scenarios of patients with AF and completed experiments assessing 3 outcome measures: therapeutic inertia, herding, and errors in risk stratification knowledge translated into action (ERSKTA) based on commonly used stratification tools (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years (double), Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (double), Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, and female gender (score of 0 for males and 1 for female) (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (double) (CHADS 2 )). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with the outcomes. Overall, 149 physicians were invited to participate, of which 88 (59.1%) completed the online assessment tool. Cardiology was the most frequent specialty (69.3%). Therapeutic inertia was present in 53 participants (60.2%), herding in 66 (75.0%), and ERSKTA in 46 (52.3%). Therapeutic inertia was inversely associated with willingness to take financial risks (odds ratio [OR] .72, 95% confidence interval [CI] .59-.89 per point in the financial risk propensity score), herding was associated with aversion to ambiguity in the medical domain (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.40-20.46), and ERSKTA was associated with the willingness to take risks (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.15-2.50, per point in score). Among physicians involved in stroke prevention in AF, individual risk preferences and aversion to ambiguity lead

  16. The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieider, Ferdinand M

    2009-09-01

    This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

  17. Risk-averse portfolio selection of renewable electricity generator investments in Brazil: An optimised multi-market commercialisation strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier, Sebastian; Street, Alexandre; McKinnon, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. - Highlights: • Gives a portfolio-based multi-market, multi-asset approach to renewable investment. • Details how to model currently used contract types in each of the Brazilian markets. • Presents a test case using realistic contract and real renewable data from Brazil. • Shows that the approach controls financial risks and boosts optimal values. • Explains how relative contract prices and attitude to risk affect optimal decisions.

  18. Study and Simulation on Dynamics of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Pricing Model with Dual-Channel and Incomplete Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lijian; Ma, Junhai

    Under the industrial background of dual-channel, volatility in demand of consumers, we use the theory of bifurcations and numerical simulation tools to investigate the dynamic pricing game in a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse behavior and incomplete information. Due to volatility of demand of consumers, we consider all the players in the supply chain are risk-averse. We assume there exist Bertrand game and Manufacturers’ Stackelberg in the chain which are closer to reality. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the complex influence of the decision parameters such as wholesale price adjustment speed, risk preference and service value on stability of the risk-averse supply chain and average utilities of all the players. We lay emphasis on the influence of chaos on average utilities of all the players which did not appear in previous studies. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed by 2D bifurcation phase portraits, Double Largest Lyapunov exponent, basins of attraction and so on. The study shows that the manufacturers should slow down their wholesale price adjustment speed to get more utilities, if the manufacturers are willing to take on more risk, they will get more profits, but they must keep their wholesale prices in a certain range in order to maintain the market stability.

  19. Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Stavroula; Chen, Jia Ning; Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

    2017-01-01

    Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. To evaluate the association between family physicians' risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08-27.85). Physicians' willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.86). Physicians' aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed.

  20. Inexact stochastic risk-aversion optimal day-ahead dispatch model for electricity system management with wind power under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Ling; Huang, Guo-He; Huang, Lu-Cheng; Xie, Yu-Lei; Niu, Dong-Xiao

    2016-01-01

    High penetration of wind power generation and deregulated electricity market brings a great challenge to the electricity system operators. It is crucial to make optimal strategy among various generation units and spinning reserve for supporting the system safety operation. By integrating interval two-stage programming and stochastic robust programming, this paper proposes a novel robust model for day-ahead dispatch and risk-aversion management under uncertainties. In the proposed model, the uncertainties are expressed as interval values with different scenario probability. The proposed method requires low computation, and still retains the complete information. A case study is to validate the effectiveness of this approach. Facing the uncertainties of future demand and electricity price, the system operators need to make optimal dispatch strategy for thermal power units and wind turbine, and arrange proper spinning reserve and flexible demand response program to mitigate wind power forecasting error. The optimal strategies provide the system operators with better trade-off between the maximum benefits and the minimum system risk. In additional, two different market rules are compared. The results show that extra financial penalty for the wind power dispatch deviation is another efficient way to enhance the risk consciousness of decision makers and lead to more conservative strategy. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for electricity system with wind power penetration. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions. • Demand response program was introduced to adjust the deviation in real-time market. • Financial penalty for imbalance risk from wind power generation was evaluated.

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk of new drugs for the treatment of diabetes mellitus: risk assessment vs. risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zannad, Faiez; Stough, Wendy Gattis; Lipicky, Raymond J; Tamargo, Juan; Bakris, George L; Borer, Jeffrey S; Alonso García, Maria de Los Angeles; Hadjadj, Samy; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kupfer, Stuart; McCullough, Peter A; Mosenzon, Ofri; Pocock, Stuart; Scheen, André J; Sourij, Harald; Van der Schueren, Bart; Stahre, Christina; White, William B; Calvo, Gonzalo

    2016-07-01

    The Food and Drug Administration issued guidance for evaluating the cardiovascular risk of new diabetes mellitus drugs in 2008. Accumulating evidence from several completed trials conducted within this framework raises questions as to whether requiring safety outcome studies for all new diabetes mellitus therapies remains justified. Given the burden of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes, the focus should shift towards cardiovascular outcome studies designed to evaluate efficacy (i.e. to determine the efficacy of a drug over placebo or standard care) rather than demonstrating that risk is not increased by a pre-specified safety margin. All stakeholders are responsible for ensuring that new drug approvals occur under conditions of appropriate safety and effectiveness. It is also a shared responsibility to avoid unnecessary hurdles that may compromise access to useful drugs and threaten the sustainability of health systems. It is critical to renew this debate so that stakeholders can collectively determine the optimal approach for developing new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Risk-averse purchasing behavior of female dentists and innovation in dental practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J McGrath

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study was to see if there was any correlation between the variables of age, gender, practice location and longevity, and type of practice on the risk-taking behavior of dentists in Connecticut. Risk-taking behavior was defined as the willingness to adopt new technologies. A questionnaire was used to gather data, and a series of questions were then posed to estimate the degree to which the responding dentists would be willing to implement the technology into their practices. Materials and Methods: Three hundred Connecticut dentists were randomly selected from a list of dentists that was provided by Benco Dental Supply Company. A questionnaire was written and mailed to all 300 dentists with a return envelope inside. One hundred twenty-nine dentists responded. The questionnaire contained questions to gather demographic information about the respondents. It posed a hypothetical situation that described a new imaging technology that was recently brought into the market. The only differences between this technology and current imaging machines were that it did not emit any radiation, and it was twice as expensive as comparable imaging technologies. A risk score was calculated based on the responses to the three main questions. Those who would adopt the technology quickly or immediately received higher risk scores, and those who would wait or would not buy the technology at all received low risk scores. The data were then analyzed with SPSS software to detect if there were statistically significant differences between different groups of dentists. Results: Male dentists were found to have higher risk scores than their female counterparts. Men in the 30-39-years age range had the highest risk scores, while women in this age range had the lowest. As age increased, the difference between the sexes decreased. Specialists were found to have higher risk scores compared to general dentists of the same gender; however, male

  3. Risk aversion and uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: the expected-utility, moment-generating function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbasha, Elamin H

    2005-05-01

    The availability of patient-level data from clinical trials has spurred a lot of interest in developing methods for quantifying and presenting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Although the majority has focused on developing methods for using sample data to estimate a confidence interval for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a small strand of the literature has emphasized the importance of incorporating risk preferences and the trade-off between the mean and the variance of returns to investment in health and medicine (mean-variance analysis). This paper shows how the exponential utility-moment-generating function approach is a natural extension to this branch of the literature for modelling choices from healthcare interventions with uncertain costs and effects. The paper assumes an exponential utility function, which implies constant absolute risk aversion, and is based on the fact that the expected value of this function results in a convenient expression that depends only on the moment-generating function of the random variables. The mean-variance approach is shown to be a special case of this more general framework. The paper characterizes the solution to the resource allocation problem using standard optimization techniques and derives the summary measure researchers need to estimate for each programme, when the assumption of risk neutrality does not hold, and compares it to the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The importance of choosing the correct distribution of costs and effects and the issues related to estimation of the parameters of the distribution are also discussed. An empirical example to illustrate the methods and concepts is provided. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

  4. Risk averse optimal operation of a virtual power plant using two stage stochastic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajeddini, Mohammad Amin; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Soroudi, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    VPP (Virtual Power Plant) is defined as a cluster of energy conversion/storage units which are centrally operated in order to improve the technical and economic performance. This paper addresses the optimal operation of a VPP considering the risk factors affecting its daily operation profits. The optimal operation is modelled in both day ahead and balancing markets as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming in order to maximize a GenCo (generation companies) expected profit. Furthermore, the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is used as a risk measure technique in order to control the risk of low profit scenarios. The uncertain parameters, including the PV power output, wind power output and day-ahead market prices are modelled through scenarios. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study to show its applicability and the results are presented and thoroughly discussed. - Highlights: • Virtual power plant modelling considering a set of energy generating and conversion units. • Uncertainty modelling using two stage stochastic programming technique. • Risk modelling using conditional value at risk. • Flexible operation of renewable energy resources. • Electricity price uncertainty in day ahead energy markets

  5. Reacting to Crises: The Risk-Averse Nature of Contemporary American Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, numerous arguments have been made advancing the notion that the failings of the public education system in the United States have placed the nation's national security or economic prosperity at risk. This article will examine some of these "crises" and explore how arguments claiming that the shortcomings of…

  6. Animal testing, 3R models and regulatory acceptance : Technology transition in a risk-averse context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiffelers, M.J.W.A.

    2016-01-01

    Risk avoidance has resulted in a broad range of regulations to guarantee the safety of products such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Many of these regulations rely on animal tests. About 3 million laboratory animals are used annually in Europe to meet such regulatory requirements.Regulatory animal

  7. Higher Pretransplantation Hemoglobin A1c Is Associated With Greater Risk of Posttransplant Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung-Im Shin

    2017-11-01

    Discussion: Higher pretransplantation HbA1c above 5.4% is independently associated with greater risk of PTDM among kidney transplant recipients. A continuous relationship between pretransplantation HbA1c and risk of PTDM suggests that increased risk starts at HbA1c levels well below current thresholds for prediabetes.

  8. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiqi Cheng

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  9. Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

  10. Effects of Risk Aversion on Market Outcomes: A Stochastic Two-Stage Equilibrium Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluates how different risk preferences of electricity producers alter the market-clearing outcomes. Toward this goal, we propose a stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two settlements, i.e., day-ahead and balancing, in which a number of conventional and stochastic...... by its optimality conditions, resulting in a mixed complementarity problem. Numerical results from a case study based on the IEEE one-area reliability test system are derived and discussed....

  11. Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

    2017-09-01

    This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to 141.4 acre-1 or 55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

  12. On the influence of uncertainties in estimating risk aversion and working interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    The influence of uncertainties in costs, value, success probability, risk tolerance and mandated working interest are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on risk adjusted value, RAV, using different models. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainty in RAV is analyzed, as is the influence of different probability distributions for the intrinsic variables entering the RAV model formulae. Numerical illustrations indicate how the RAV probabilities depend not only on the model functions (Cozzolino, hyperbolic tangent) used to provide RAV estimates, but also on the intrinsic shapes of the probability distributions from which are drawn input parameter values for Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, a mandated range of working interest can be addressed as an extra variable contributing to the probabilistic range of RAV; while negative RAV values for high-cost project can be used to assess the probable buy-out amount one should be prepared to pay depending on corporate risk philosophy. Also, the procedures illustrate how the relative contributions of scientific factors influence uncertainty of reserve assessments, allowing one to determine where to concentrate effort to improve the ranges of uncertainty. (Author)

  13. Playing it safe but losing anyway--serotonergic signaling of negative outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina; Elliott, Rebecca; Paulson, Olaf B; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2013-08-01

    Risk avoidance is an important determinant of human behavior. The neurotransmitter serotonin has been implicated in processing negative outcomes caused by risky decisions. However, it is unclear whether serotonin provides a neurobiological link between making a risk aversive decision and the response to a negative outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase the serotonergic tone, (ii) after acute tryptophan depletion (ATD) to reduce central serotonin levels, or (iii) without interventions. ATD and citalopram had opposite effects on outcome related activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and amygdala. Relative to the control condition, ATD increased and citalopram decreased the neural response to negative outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to negative outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk decisions and led to a high missed reward. ATD and citalopram did not alter the neural response to positive outcomes in dmPFC, but relative to ATD, citalopram produced a bilateral increase in the amygdala response to large wins caused by high-risk choices. The results show a selective involvement of the serotonergic system in neocortical processing of negative outcomes resulting from risk-averse decisions, thereby linking risk aversion and processing of negative outcomes in goal-directed behaviors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  14. Research on closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium with two-type suppliers, risk-averse manufacturers and capacity constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Sun

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this paper is to investigate the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC network equilibrium wiht the consideration of three practical factors: two complementary types of suppliers, risk-averse character of the manufacturer and capacity constraints of the suppliers. Design/methodology/approach: The equilibrium of various decision makers including the suppliers, the manufacturers, the retailers, the collectors and the demand markets are modeled via finite-dimensional variational inequality, respectively. Then the governing CLSC network equilibrium model is established. The logarithmic-quadratic proximal prediction-correction algorithm is designed to solve the variational inequality model. Numerical examples are given to analyze the impact of return rate, risk-averse degree and capacity constraints on the network equilibrium under different product BOMs. Findings: with the increase of return rate, the profits of various channel members and the performance of the CLSC system will improve. There is a contradiction between profit maximization and risk minimization for the manufacturers. Moreover, the economic behavior of the CLSC is likely to be limited by the capacity constraints of the suppliers. Originality/value: Prior to this paper, few papers have addressed with the CLSC network equilibrium considering some practical factors. They assume all the suppliers are identical and all the decision-makers are risk neutral. Furthermore, the production capacities of all suppliers are assumed to be infinite or large enough. To fill the gap, this paper examines the influences of two-type suppliers, risk aversion and capacity constraints upon the CLSC network equilibrium.

  15. Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raptis S

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Stavroula Raptis,1,* Jia Ning Chen,2,* Florencia Saposnik,2 Roman Pelyavskyy,2 Andrew Liuni,3 Gustavo Saposnik2,4 On behalf of the Stroke Outcomes Research Canada Working Group (SORCan- www.sorcan.ca 1Applied Health Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, 2Stroke Outcomes and Decision Neuroscience Research Unit, Department of Medicine, St. Michael’s Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, 3Medical Department, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada Ltd., Burlington, ON, Canada; 4Neuroeconomics and Decision Neuroscience, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF. It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. Objectives: To evaluate the association between family physicians’ risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Methods: Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks. The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Results: Overall, 23.3% (17/73 of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate

  16. Myopic loss aversion revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Blavatskyy, Pavlo; Pogrebna, Ganna

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we reexamine several experimental papers on myopic loss aversion by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. We find that the behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of myopic loss aversion.

  17. Multiattribute Utility Theory, Intertemporal Utility and Correlation Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable...... aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles....

  18. Complex dynamics of a MC-MS pricing model for a risk-averse supply chain with after-sale investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Sun, Lijian

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the pricing strategy of the manufacturers and that of a common retailer, including their after-sale investment in a risk-averse supply chain. As the demand is not always for sure, the supply chain follows Manufacturers Cooperating (MC) and Manufacturers Stackelberg (MS). The main objective of the paper is to investigate the influence of the decision parameters such as the after-sale investment, wholesale price adjustment speed and risk preference on the stability and utilities of the risk-averse supply chain. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed with 2D-bifurcation diagrams, double largest Lyapunov exponent and basins of attraction. The study shows that the faster the adjustment speed is, the more profits the retailer can make, but on the other hand, it is no good to manufacturers. Risk tolerance levels (RM and RR) affect the utility of the manufacturers and that of the retailer differently. A feedback control method is used to control the chaos in the supply chain.

  19. Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

    2015-01-01

    Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

  20. Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Jim T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks.

  1. Impact of risk aversion and disease outbreak characteristics on the incentives of producers as a group to participate in animal disease insurance-A simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Jarkko K; Heikkilä, Jaakko

    2011-06-01

    The participation of agricultural producers in financing losses caused by livestock epidemics has been debated in many countries. One of the issues raised is how reluctant producers are to participate voluntarily in the financing of disease losses before an outbreak occurs. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether disease losses should be financed through pre- or post-outbreak premiums or their combination. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to illustrate the costs of financing two diseases of different profiles. The profiles differed in the probability in which the damage occurs and in the average damage per event. Three hypothetical financing schemes were compared based on their ability to reduce utility losses in the case of risk-neutral and risk-averse producer groups. The schemes were examined in a dynamic setting where premiums depended on the compensation history of the sector. If producers choose the preferred financing scheme based on utility losses, results suggest that the timing of the premiums, the transaction costs of the scheme, the degree of risk aversion of the producer, and the level and the volatility of premiums affect the choice of the financing scheme. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: An introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease r...

  3. Accounting for risk aversion, income distribution, and social welfare in cost-benefit analysis for flood risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kind, Jarl; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Most cost-benefit analysis (CBA) textbooks and guidelines recognize the objective of CBAs to improve social welfare—a function of well-being of all individuals, conceptualized by utility. However, today's common practice to value flood risk management benefits as the reduction of the expected annual

  4. Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao

    experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn...

  5. Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Hideaki; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Yokoyama, Naoto; Takemura, Ariyoshi; Murao, Takuro; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.

  6. The functional and structural neural basis of individual differences in loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Motterlini, Matteo; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Chierchia, Gabriele; Pantaleo, Giuseppe; Tettamanti, Marco; Cappa, Stefano F

    2013-09-04

    Decision making under risk entails the anticipation of prospective outcomes, typically leading to the greater sensitivity to losses than gains known as loss aversion. Previous studies on the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation and loss aversion provided inconsistent results, showing either bidirectional mesolimbic responses of activation for gains and deactivation for losses, or a specific amygdala involvement in processing losses. Here we focused on loss aversion with the aim to address interindividual differences in the neural bases of choice-outcome anticipation. Fifty-six healthy human participants accepted or rejected 104 mixed gambles offering equal (50%) chances of gaining or losing different amounts of money while their brain activity was measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We report both bidirectional and gain/loss-specific responses while evaluating risky gambles, with amygdala and posterior insula specifically tracking the magnitude of potential losses. At the individual level, loss aversion was reflected both in limbic fMRI responses and in gray matter volume in a structural amygdala-thalamus-striatum network, in which the volume of the "output" centromedial amygdala nuclei mediating avoidance behavior was negatively correlated with monetary performance. We conclude that outcome anticipation and ensuing loss aversion involve multiple neural systems, showing functional and structural individual variability directly related to the actual financial outcomes of choices. By supporting the simultaneous involvement of both appetitive and aversive processing in economic decision making, these results contribute to the interpretation of existing inconsistencies on the neural bases of anticipating choice outcomes.

  7. Drugs and taste aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rondeau, D.B.; Jolicoeur, F.B.; Merkel, A.D.; Wayner, M.J.

    1981-01-01

    The literature on the effects of drugs on the acquisition and the magnitude of taste aversion is reviewed and discussed. Then, the results of a series of experiments on the effects of phenobarbital and related drugs on taste aversion are reported. A standard taste aversion model was used in all experiments; test drugs were injected prior to drinking in a one bottle situation on the first test day following the taste aversion treatment. Phenobarbital in doses ranging from 20 to 80 mg/kg significantly attenuated taste aversion induced by lithium chloride (LiCl) and x-radiation, the maximal effect occurred with the 60 mg/kg dose. The attenuating effect was found to be dependent upon the magnitude of the aversion to the sapid solution. Phenobarbital completely abolished aversion produced by 0.375 mEq LiCl while the attenuation effect decreased linearly with higher doses of LiCl. Results also indicate that phenobarbital's attenuating effect cannot be solely attributed to its dipsogenic characteristic or to its state dependent learning effect. Attenuation of LiCl aversion to a saccharin solution was also observed following single doses of amobarbital, 30 mg/kg, pentobarbital, 15 mg/kg, and chloropromazine, 0.75 mg/kg. Taste aversion was not affected by other doses of those drugs or by hexobarbital, barbital, and chlordiazepoxide. Phenobarbital's attenuating effect on taste aversion is discussed in relation to other known behavioral and neurophysiological effects of the drug

  8. Ambiguity aversion in rhesus macaques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin eHayden

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available People generally prefer risky options, which have fully specified outcome probabilities, to ambiguous options, which have unspecified probabilities. This preference, formalized in economics, is strong enough that people will reliably prefer a risky option to an ambiguous option with a greater expected value. Explanations for ambiguity aversion often invoke uniquely human faculties like language, self-justification, or a desire to avoid public embarrassment. Challenging these ideas, here we demonstrate that a preference for unambiguous options is shared with rhesus macaques. We trained four monkeys to choose between pairs of options that both offered explicitly cued probabilities of large and small juice outcomes. We then introduced occasional trials where one of the options was obscured and examined their resulting preferences; we ran humans in a parallel experiment on a nearly identical task. We found that monkeys reliably preferred risky options to ambiguous ones, even when this bias was costly, closely matching the behavior of humans in the analogous task. Notably, ambiguity aversion varied parametrically with the extent of ambiguity. As expected, ambiguity aversion gradually declined as monkeys learned the underlying probability distribution of rewards. These data indicate that ambiguity aversion reflects fundamental cognitive biases shared with other animals rather than uniquely human factors guiding decisions.

  9. Neural loss aversion differences between depression patients and healthy individuals: A functional MRI investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekhar Pammi, V S; Pillai Geethabhavan Rajesh, Purushothaman; Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Rappai Mary, Paramban; Seema, Satish; Radhakrishnan, Ashalatha; Sitaram, Ranganatha

    2015-04-01

    Neuroeconomics employs neuroscience techniques to explain decision-making behaviours. Prospect theory, a prominent model of decision-making, features a value function with parameters for risk and loss aversion. Recent work with normal participants identified activation related to loss aversion in brain regions including the amygdala, ventral striatum, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. However, the brain network for loss aversion in pathologies such as depression has yet to be identified. The aim of the current study is to employ the value function from prospect theory to examine behavioural and neural manifestations of loss aversion in depressed and healthy individuals to identify the neurobiological markers of loss aversion in economic behaviour. We acquired behavioural data and fMRI scans while healthy controls and patients with depression performed an economic decision-making task. Behavioural loss aversion was higher in patients with depression than in healthy controls. fMRI results revealed that the two groups shared a brain network for value function including right ventral striatum, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and right amygdala. However, the neural loss aversion results revealed greater activations in the right dorsal striatum and the right anterior insula for controls compared with patients with depression, and higher activations in the midbrain region ventral tegmental area for patients with depression compared with controls. These results suggest that while the brain network for loss aversion is shared between depressed and healthy individuals, some differences exist with respect to differential activation of additional areas. Our findings are relevant to identifying neurobiological markers for altered decision-making in the depressed. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  10. "Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion": Correction to Schulreich, Gerhardt, and Heekeren (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Reports an error in "Incidental fear cues increase monetary loss aversion" by Stefan Schulreich, Holger Gerhardt and Hauke R. Heekeren ( Emotion , 2016[Apr], Vol 16[3], 402-412). In the current article, there was an error in the Study 2 portion of the article. The fourth paragraph of the Results section should read as follows: Performing the same analyses as in Study 1, we found an effect of incidental fear cues on decision behavior. Participants accepted fewer gambles in the fearful-face condition (32.77%) than in the neutral-face condition (33.96%), with Z = -2.187, p = .027, d = -0.998 in the Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and β = 0.012, SE = 0.0053, F(1, 21) = 4.434, p = .047, partial η² = .174 in the linear regression. This suggests increased risk aversion in the fearful-face condition. Concerning personality, however, there were no significant between-subjects effects or between-within interaction effects (all ps = .349). (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2015-52358-001.) In many everyday decisions, people exhibit loss aversion-a greater sensitivity to losses relative to gains of equal size. Loss aversion is thought to be (at least partly) mediated by emotional-in particular, fear-related-processes. Decision research has shown that even incidental emotions, which are unrelated to the decision at hand, can influence decision making. The effect of incidental fear on loss aversion, however, is thus far unclear. In two studies, we experimentally investigated how incidental fear cues, presented during (Study 1) or before (Study 2) choices to accept or reject mixed gambles over real monetary stakes, influence monetary loss aversion. We find that the presentation of fearful faces, relative to the presentation of neutral faces, increased risk aversion-an effect that could be attributed to increased loss aversion. The size of this effect was moderated by psychopathic personality: Fearless dominance, in particular its interpersonal facet

  11. Rats and seabirds: effects of egg size on predation risk and the potential of conditioned taste aversion as a mitigation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Lucía; Larrinaga, Asier R; Santamaría, Luis

    2013-01-01

    Seabirds nesting on islands are threatened by invasive rodents, such as mice and rats, which may attack eggs, chicks and even adults. The low feasibility of rat eradications on many islands makes the development of alternate control plans necessary. We used a combination of field experiments on a Mediterranean island invaded by black rats (Rattusrattus) to evaluate (1) the predation risk posed to different-sized seabird eggs and (2), the potential of two deterrent methods (electronic and chemical) to reduce its impact. Rats were able to consume eggs of all sizes (12 to 68 g), but survival increased 13 times from the smallest to the largest eggs (which also had more resistant eggshells). Extrapolation to seabird eggs suggests that the smallest species (Hydrobatespelagicus) suffer the most severe predation risk, but even the largest (Larusmichahellis) could suffer >60% mortality. Nest attack was not reduced by the deterrents. However, chemical deterrence (conditioned taste aversion by lithium chloride) slowed the increase in predation rate over time, which resulted in a three-fold increase in egg survival to predation as compared to both control and electronic deterrence. At the end of the experimental period, this effect was confirmed by a treatment swap, which showed that conferred protection remains at least 15 days after cessation of the treatment. Results indicate that small seabird species are likely to suffer severe rates of nest predation by rats and that conditioned taste aversion, but not electronic repellents, may represent a suitable method to protect colonies when eradication or control is not feasible or cost-effective.

  12. Suicide in married couples in Sweden: Is the risk greater in same-sex couples?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkenstam, Charlotte; Andersson, Gunnar; Dalman, Christina; Cochran, Susan; Kosidou, Kyriaki

    2016-07-01

    Minority sexual orientation is a predictor of suicide ideation and attempts, though its association with suicide mortality is less clear. We capitalize on Sweden's extensively linked databases, to investigate whether, among married individuals, same-sex marriage is associated with suicide. Using a population-based register design, we analyzed suicide risk among same-sex married women and men (n = 6456), as compared to different-sex married women and men (n = 1181723) in Sweden. We selected all newly partnered or married individuals in the intervening time between 1/1/1996 and 12/31/2009 and followed them with regard to suicide until 12/31/2011. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to calculate adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI). The risk of suicide was higher among same-sex married individuals as compared to different-sex married individuals (IRR 2.7, 95 % CI 1.5-4.8), after adjustment for time at risk and socioeconomic confounding. Sex-stratified analyses showed a tentatively elevated risk for same-sex married women (IRR 2.5, 95 % CI 0.8-7.7) as compared to different-sex married women. Among same-sex married men the suicide risk was nearly three-fold greater as compared to different-sex married (IRR 2.895 % CI 1.5-5.5). This holds true also after adjustment for HIV status. Even in a country with a comparatively tolerant climate regarding homosexuality such as Sweden, same-sex married individuals evidence a higher risk for suicide than other married individuals.

  13. Loss aversion in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trémeau, Fabien; Brady, Melissa; Saccente, Erica; Moreno, Alexis; Epstein, Henry; Citrome, Leslie; Malaspina, Dolores; Javitt, Daniel

    2008-08-01

    Loss aversion in decision-making refers to a higher sensitivity to losses than to gains. Loss aversion is conceived as an affective interference in cognitive processes such as judgment and decision-making. Loss aversion in non-risky choices has not been studied in schizophrenia. Forty-two individuals with schizophrenia and 42 non-patient control subjects, matched by gender and age, were randomized to two different scenarios (a buying scenario and a selling scenario). Subjects were asked to evaluate the price of a decorated mug. Schizophrenia subjects were re-tested four weeks later with the other scenario. Contrary to non-patient controls, schizophrenia subjects did not show loss aversion. In the schizophrenia group, absence of loss aversion was correlated with age, duration of illness, number of months in State hospitals, and poorer performance in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, but not with current psychopathology and two domains of emotional experience. Absence of loss aversion in schizophrenia represents a deficit in the processing of emotional information during decision-making. It can be interpreted as a lack of integration between the emotional and the cognitive systems, or to a more diffuse and de-differentiated impact of emotional information on decision-making. Future studies should bring more clarity to this question.

  14. Male Astronauts Have Greater Bone Loss and Risk of Hip Fracture Following Long Duration Spaceflights than Females

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellman, Rachel; Sibonga, Jean; Bouxsein, Mary

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews bone loss in males and compares it to female bone loss during long duration spaceflight. The study indicates that males suffer greater bone loss than females and have a greater risk of hip fracture. Two possible reason for the greater male bone loss are that the pre-menopausal females have the estrogen protection and the greater strength of men max out the exercise equipment that provide a limited resistance to 135 kg.

  15. Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

    2015-01-01

    Background: Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Methods: Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results: Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Conclusion: Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. PMID:25745873

  16. Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

    2015-08-01

    Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  17. Application of a general risk management model to portfolio optimization problems with elliptical distributed returns for risk neutral and risk averse decision makers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe discuss a class of risk measures for portfolio optimization with linear loss functions, where the random returns of financial instruments have a multivariate elliptical distribution. Under this setting we pay special attention to two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and

  18. Loss Aversion and Individual Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Katrine; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    Many studies have shown that loss aversion affects the valuation of non-market goods. Using stated choice data, this paper presents an empirical investigation of how individual-level loss aversion varies with observable personal characteristics and with the choice context. We investigate loss...... aversion with respect to travel time and money, and find significant loss aversion in both dimensions. The degree of loss aversion in the time dimension is larger than in the money dimension, and depends on age and education. Subjects tend to be more loss averse when the reference is well established....

  19. Probability Weighting and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2008-01-01

    We analyze how the introduction of probability weighting and loss aversion in a futures hedging model affects decision making. Analytical findings indicate that probability weighting alone always affects optimal hedge ratios, while loss and risk aversion only have an impact when probability

  20. Reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Neuman

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE in the health-care sector to test the loss aversion theory that is derived from reference-dependent preferences: The absolute subjective value of a deviation from a reference point is generally greater when the deviation represents a loss than when the same-sized change is perceived as a gain. As far as is known, this paper is the first to use a DCE to test the loss aversion theory. A DCE is a highly suitable tool for such testing because it estimates the marginal valuations of attributes, based onextit{ deviations from a reference point} (a constant scenario. Moreover, loss aversion can be examined for extit{each attribute separately}. Another advantage of a DCE is that is can be applied toextit{ non-traded goods with non-tangible attributes}. A health-care event is used for empirical illustration: The loss aversion theory is tested within the context of preference structures for maternity-ward attributes, estimated using data gathered from 3850 observations made by a sample of 542 women who had recently given birth. Seven hypotheses are presented and tested. Overall, significant support for behavioral loss aversion theories was found. %JEL codes: D01, D12, I19

  1. Cardiovascular risk factors cause premature rarefaction of the collateral circulation and greater ischemic tissue injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Scott M; Zhang, Hua; Maeda, Nobuyo; Doerschuk, Claire M; Faber, James E

    2015-07-01

    Collaterals lessen tissue injury in occlusive disease. However, aging causes progressive decline in their number and smaller diameters in those that remain (collateral rarefaction), beginning at 16 months of age in mice (i.e., middle age), and worse ischemic injury-effects that are accelerated in even 3-month-old eNOS(-/-) mice. These findings have found indirect support in recent human studies. We sought to determine whether other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) associated with endothelial dysfunction cause collateral rarefaction, investigate possible mechanisms, and test strategies for prevention. Mice with nine different models of CVRFs of 4-12 months of age were assessed for number and diameter of native collaterals in skeletal muscle and brain and for collateral-dependent perfusion and ischemic injury after arterial occlusion. Hypertension caused collateral rarefaction whose severity increased with duration and level of hypertension, accompanied by greater hindlimb ischemia and cerebral infarct volume. Chronic treatment of wild-type mice with L-N (G)-nitro-arginine methylester caused similar rarefaction and worse ischemic injury which were not prevented by lowering arterial pressure with hydralazine. Metabolic syndrome, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and obesity also caused collateral rarefaction. Neither chronic statin treatment nor exercise training lessened hypertension-induced rarefaction. Chronic CVRF presence caused collateral rarefaction and worse ischemic injury, even at relatively young ages. Rarefaction was associated with increased proliferation rate of collateral endothelial cells, effects that may promote accelerated endothelial cell senescence.

  2. Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, Monique; Plate, Rista C; Carlisi, Christina O; Gorodetsky, Elena; Goldman, David; Pine, Daniel S

    2014-04-01

    Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT) gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR) in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1) does manifest in adolescents, (2) does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3), when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Loss aversion and 5HTT gene variants in adolescent anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Ernst

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Loss aversion, a well-documented behavioral phenomenon, characterizes decisions under risk in adult populations. As such, loss aversion may provide a reliable measure of risky behavior. Surprisingly, little is known about loss aversion in adolescents, a group who manifests risk-taking behavior, or in anxiety disorders, which are associated with risk-avoidance. Finally, loss aversion is expected to be modulated by genotype, particularly the serotonin transporter (SERT gene variant, based on its role in anxiety and impulsivity. This genetic modulation may also differ between anxious and healthy adolescents, given their distinct propensities for risk taking. The present work examines the modulation of loss aversion, an index of risk-taking, and reaction-time to decision, an index of impulsivity, by the serotonin-transporter-gene-linked polymorphisms (5HTTLPR in healthy and clinically anxious adolescents. Findings show that loss aversion (1 does manifest in adolescents, (2 does not differ between healthy and clinically anxious participants, and (3, when stratified by SERT genotype, identifies a subset of anxious adolescents who are high SERT-expressers, and show excessively low loss-aversion and high impulsivity. This last finding may serve as preliminary evidence for 5HTTLPR as a risk factor for the development of comorbid disorders associated with risk-taking and impulsivity in clinically anxious adolescents.

  4. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  5. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: An examination of concurrent validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules. Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate mechanisms that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC and one such mechanism, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV. Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a choosing risky options when expected value favors those options and (b avoiding risky options when expected value favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  6. Investigating the Effect of Consumer’s Risk Aversion and Product Involvement on their Brand Loyalty and Word of Mouth Behavior: The Mediating Role of Brand Attachment and Brand Trust

    OpenAIRE

    Manijeh Bahrainizadeh; Alireza Ziaei Bide

    2013-01-01

    In today’s highly competitive markets, brand loyalty is a central element of marketing strategies and tactics. Therefore, the sources of loyalty and the processes through which it is established is becoming central concern of marketers. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the consumer’s risk aversion and product involvement with their brand loyalty and positive word of mouth behaviors and also to test empirically whether this relationship is mediated by brand trus...

  7. Increased Loss Aversion in Unmedicated Patients with Obsessive–Compulsive Disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila E. Sip

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionObsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD patients show abnormalities in decision-making and, clinically, appear to show heightened sensitivity to potential negative outcomes. Despite the importance of these cognitive processes in OCD, few studies have examined the disorder within an economic decision-making framework. Here, we investigated loss aversion, a key construct in the prospect theory that describes the tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to potential losses than gains when making decisions.MethodsAcross two study sites, groups of unmedicated OCD patients (n = 14, medicated OCD patients (n = 29, and healthy controls (n = 34 accepted or rejected a series of 50/50 gambles containing varying loss/gain values. Loss aversion was calculated as the ratio of the likelihood of rejecting a gamble with increasing potential losses to the likelihood of accepting a gamble with increasing potential gains. Decision times to accept or reject were also examined and correlated with loss aversion.ResultsUnmedicated OCD patients exhibited significantly more loss aversion compared to medicated OCD or controls, an effect that was replicated across both sites and remained significant even after controlling for OCD symptom severity, trait anxiety, and sex. Post hoc analyses further indicated that unmedicated patients’ increased likelihood to reject a gamble as its loss value increased could not be explained solely by greater risk aversion among patients. Unmedicated patients were also slower to accept than reject gambles, effects that were not found in the other two groups. Loss aversion was correlated with decision times in unmedicated patients but not in the other two groups.DiscussionThese data identify abnormalities of decision-making in a subgroup of OCD patients not taking psychotropic medication. The findings help elucidate the cognitive mechanisms of the disorder and suggest that future treatments could aim to target

  8. Increased Loss Aversion in Unmedicated Patients with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sip, Kamila E; Gonzalez, Richard; Taylor, Stephan F; Stern, Emily R

    2017-01-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients show abnormalities in decision-making and, clinically, appear to show heightened sensitivity to potential negative outcomes. Despite the importance of these cognitive processes in OCD, few studies have examined the disorder within an economic decision-making framework. Here, we investigated loss aversion, a key construct in the prospect theory that describes the tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to potential losses than gains when making decisions. Across two study sites, groups of unmedicated OCD patients ( n  = 14), medicated OCD patients ( n  = 29), and healthy controls ( n  = 34) accepted or rejected a series of 50/50 gambles containing varying loss/gain values. Loss aversion was calculated as the ratio of the likelihood of rejecting a gamble with increasing potential losses to the likelihood of accepting a gamble with increasing potential gains. Decision times to accept or reject were also examined and correlated with loss aversion. Unmedicated OCD patients exhibited significantly more loss aversion compared to medicated OCD or controls, an effect that was replicated across both sites and remained significant even after controlling for OCD symptom severity, trait anxiety, and sex. Post hoc analyses further indicated that unmedicated patients' increased likelihood to reject a gamble as its loss value increased could not be explained solely by greater risk aversion among patients. Unmedicated patients were also slower to accept than reject gambles, effects that were not found in the other two groups. Loss aversion was correlated with decision times in unmedicated patients but not in the other two groups. These data identify abnormalities of decision-making in a subgroup of OCD patients not taking psychotropic medication. The findings help elucidate the cognitive mechanisms of the disorder and suggest that future treatments could aim to target abnormalities of loss/gain processing during

  9. Rumination time around calving: an early signal to detect cows at greater risk of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calamari, L; Soriani, N; Panella, G; Petrera, F; Minuti, A; Trevisi, E

    2014-01-01

    slower increase of RT after calving. Furthermore, more than 90% of the cows in the L group had clinical diseases in early lactation compared with 42% of the H cows. Overall, our results demonstrate the utility of monitoring RT around calving, and in particular during the first week of lactation, as a way to identify in a timely fashion those cows at a greater risk of developing a disease in early lactation. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Children do not exhibit ambiguity aversion despite intact familiarity bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rosa; Brannon, Elizabeth M; Huettel, Scott A

    2014-01-01

    The phenomenon of ambiguity aversion, in which risky gambles with known probabilities are preferred over ambiguous gambles with unknown probabilities, has been thoroughly documented in adults but never measured in children. Here, we use two distinct tasks to investigate ambiguity preferences of children (8- to 9-year-olds) and a comparison group of adults (19- to 27-year-olds). Across three separate measures, we found evidence for significant ambiguity aversion in adults but not in children and for greater ambiguity aversion in adults compared to children. As ambiguity aversion in adults has been theorized to result from a preference to bet on the known and avoid the unfamiliar, we separately measured familiarity bias and found that children, like adults, are biased towards the familiar. Our findings indicate that ambiguity aversion emerges across the course of development between childhood and adolescence, while a familiarity bias is already present in childhood.

  11. Prevalence and risk factors for hyperthyroidism in Irish cats from the greater Dublin area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bree, Laura; Gallagher, Barbara A; Shiel, Robert E; Mooney, Carmel T

    2018-01-01

    Hyperthyroidism is common in older cats. Prevalence varies geographically, but is anecdotally considered low in Ireland. The aim of this study was to document prevalence of hyperthyroidism in older cats in the greater Dublin area of Ireland and to assess environmental and clinical associations for development and identification of the disease. Primary-care veterinary practices were requested to select cats aged 10 years or older where blood sampling was being performed for health screening or clinical investigations. Surplus serum/plasma samples were submitted to University College Dublin Diagnostic Endocrine Laboratory for total thyroxine (T 4 ) measurement. Cats were classified as hyperthyroid, equivocal or euthyroid based on a total T 4 concentration (reference interval, 15-60 nmol/L), of >60 nmol/L, 30-60 nmol/L or hyperthyroidism were excluded. A questionnaire completed by the client and veterinarian detailing historical and physical information was also required. Associations between categorical variables were analysed by Chi-square or Fisher's exact test and odds ratio (OR) calculated. A P value of hyperthyroid, 54 (10.6%) equivocal and 346 (68.2%) euthyroid. The presence of goitre ( P  weight loss ( P  hyperthyroidism. Cats with goitre were more likely to be diagnosed as hyperthyroid [OR 2.85, (95% CI 1.75-4.62] compared to those without. However, goitre was only palpated in 40 of 102 (39.2%) hyperthyroid cats. Increasing age was the only significant ( P  hyperthyroidism. A relationship between hyperthyroidism and sex, breed, lifestyle, parasite control, vaccination status or feeding habits was not identified. Hyperthyroidism is not uncommon in Irish cats. Age was the only significant risk factor for its development. The high proportion of hyperthyroid cats without palpable goitre (> 60%) may reflect failure to detect goitre and account for the perceived low prevalence of this condition in Ireland.

  12. Interoceptive ability predicts aversion to losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Hartley, Catherine A; Hamilton, Jeffrey R; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-01-01

    Emotions have been proposed to inform risky decision-making through the influence of affective physiological responses on subjective value. The ability to perceive internal body states, or "interoception" may influence this relationship. Here, we examined whether interoception predicts participants' degree of loss aversion, which has been previously linked to choice-related arousal responses. Participants performed both a heartbeat-detection task indexing interoception and a risky monetary decision-making task, from which loss aversion, risk attitudes and choice consistency were parametrically measured. Interoceptive ability correlated selectively with loss aversion and was unrelated to the other value parameters. This finding suggests that specific and separable component processes underlying valuation are shaped not only by our physiological responses, as shown in previous findings, but also by our interoceptive access to such signals.

  13. Colour Separation and Aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Haigh

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Aversion to achromatic patterns is well documented but relatively little is known about discomfort from chromatic patterns. Large colour differences are uncommon in the natural environment and deviation from natural statistics makes images uncomfortable (Fernandez and Wilkins 2008, Perception, 37(7, 1098–113; Juricevic et al 2010, Perception, 39(7, 884–899. We report twelve studies documenting a linear increase in aversion to chromatic square-wave gratings as a function of the separation in UCS chromaticity between the component bars, independent of their luminance contrast. Two possible explanations for the aversion were investigated: (1 accommodative response, or (2 cortical metabolic demand. We found no correlation between chromaticity separation and accommodative lag or variance in lag, measured using an open-field autorefractor. However, near infrared spectroscopy of the occipital cortex revealed a larger oxyhaemoglobin response to patterns with large chromaticity separation. The aversion may be cortical in origin and does not appear to be due to accommodation.

  14. Inequity aversion revisted

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Y.; Onderstal, S.; Schram, A.

    2012-01-01

    We provide the first systematic study of the robustness of parameter estimates for the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) model of inequity aversion with respect to (i) the occurrence of efficiency concerns; (ii) the scale of payoffs; and (iii) the game used (i.e., cross-game consistency). Moreover, we provide

  15. 21 CFR 50.52 - Clinical investigations involving greater than minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to individual subjects. 50.52 Section 50.52... investigations involving greater than minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to individual... prospect of direct benefit for the individual subject, or by a monitoring procedure that is likely to...

  16. Understanding Loan Aversion in Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Boatman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although prior research has suggested that some students may be averse to taking out loans to finance their college education, there is little empirical evidence showing the extent to which loan aversion exists or how it affects different populations of students. This study provides the first large-scale quantitative evidence of levels of loan aversion in the United States. Using survey data collected on more than 6,000 individuals, we examine the frequency of loan aversion in three distinct populations. Depending on the measure, between 20 and 40% of high school seniors exhibit loan aversion with lower rates among community college students and adults not in college. Women are less likely to express loan-averse attitudes than men, and Hispanic respondents are more likely to be loan averse than White respondents.

  17. Coping with Loss Aversion in the Newsvendor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce loss aversion into the decision framework of the newsvendor model. By introducing the loss aversion coefficient λ, we propose a novel utility function for the loss-averse newsvendor. First, we obtain the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-neutral. It is found that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the expected profit maximization order quantity in the classical newsvendor model, which may help to explain the decision bias in the classical newsvendor model. Then, to reduce the risk which originates from the fluctuation in the market demand, we achieve the optimal order quantity to maximize CVaR about utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-averse. We find that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility above and is decreasing in the confidence level α. Further, it is proved that the expected utility under this optimal order quantity is decreasing in the confidence level α, which verifies that low risk implies low return. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results and some management insights are suggested for the loss-averse newsvendor model.

  18. Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William Frans Christian; Madsen, Kristoffer H

    2018-01-01

    Background: Major depression and bipolar disorders aggregates in families and are linked with a wide range ofneurobiological abnormalities including cortical gray matter (GM) alterations. Prospective studies of individualsat familial risk may expose the neural mechanisms underlying risk...... inferior frontal cortex compared to high- and low-risk twins who remainedwell at follow-up.Conclusion: This pattern of apparently stable grater regional GM volume may constitute a neural marker of anincreased risk for developing an affective disorder in individuals at familial risk....... transmission.Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major de-pression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...

  19. Amygdala damage eliminates monetary loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Camerer, Colin F; Adolphs, Ralph

    2010-02-23

    Losses are a possibility in many risky decisions, and organisms have evolved mechanisms to evaluate and avoid them. Laboratory and field evidence suggests that people often avoid risks with losses even when they might earn a substantially larger gain, a behavioral preference termed "loss aversion." The cautionary brake on behavior known to rely on the amygdala is a plausible candidate mechanism for loss aversion, yet evidence for this idea has so far not been found. We studied two rare individuals with focal bilateral amygdala lesions using a series of experimental economics tasks. To measure individual sensitivity to financial losses we asked participants to play a variety of monetary gambles with possible gains and losses. Although both participants retained a normal ability to respond to changes in the gambles' expected value and risk, they showed a dramatic reduction in loss aversion compared to matched controls. The findings suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in generating loss aversion by inhibiting actions with potentially deleterious outcomes.

  20. Optimal wildlife management in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem: A spatiotemporal model of disease risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    South of Yellowstone National Park there are twenty-three sites where elk herds are provided supplementary feeding during the winter and spring months. Supplementary feeding of elk in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has been practiced since the early twentieth century, but the practice has b...

  1. Do beef risk perceptions or risk attitudes have a greater effect on the beef purchase decisions of Canadian consumers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    Cluster analysis is applied in this study to group Canadian households by two characteristics, their risk perceptions and risk attitudes toward beef. There are some similarities in demographic profiles, meat purchases, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) media recall between the cluster that perceives beef to be the most risky and the cluster that has little willingness to accept the risks of eating beef. There are similarities between the medium risk perception cluster and the medium risk attitude cluster, as well as between the cluster that perceives beef to have little risk and the cluster that is most willing to accept the risks of eating beef. Regression analysis shows that risk attitudes have a larger impact on household-level beef purchasing decisions than do risk perceptions for all consumer clusters. This implies that it may be more effective to undertake policies that reduce the risks associated with eating beef, instead of enhancing risk communication to improve risk perceptions. Only for certain clusters with higher willingness to accept the risks of eating beef might enhancing risk communication increase beef consumption significantly. The different role of risk perceptions and risk attitudes in beef consumption needs to be recognized during the design of risk management policies.

  2. Sensitivity of the brain to loss aversion during risky gambles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Jean-Claude

    2007-07-01

    Little is known about the neural systems that subserve human loss aversion. A recent neuroimaging study by Tom, Poldrack and colleagues reports that this pattern of behaviour is directly tied to the greater sensitivity of the brain to potential losses compared with potential gains and uncovers a brain network whose activity increases with potential gains and decreases with potential losses. These results challenge the common view that loss aversion engages a distinct emotion-related brain network (e.g. amygdala and insula).

  3. Do Different ADHD-Related Etiological Risks Involve Specific Neuropsychological Pathways? An Analysis of Mediation Processes by Inhibitory Control and Delay Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauli-Pott, Ursula; Dalir, Silke; Mingebach, Tanja; Roller, Alisa; Becker, Katja

    2013-01-01

    Background: Inhibitory control (IC) has been regarded as a neuropsychological basic deficit and as an endophenotype of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Implicated here are mediation processes between etiological factors and ADHD symptoms. We thus analyze whether and to what extent executive IC and delay aversion (DA; i.e.,…

  4. Tuberculosis and poverty: why are the poor at greater risk in India?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxlade, Olivia; Murray, Megan

    2012-01-01

    Although poverty is widely recognized as an important risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) disease, the specific proximal risk factors that mediate this association are less clear. The objective of our study was to investigate the mechanisms by which poverty increases the risk of TB. Using individual level data from 198,754 people from the 2006 Demographic Health Survey (DHS) for India, we assessed self-reported TB status, TB determinants and household socioeconomic status. We used these data to calculate the population attributable fractions (PAF) for each key TB risk factor based on the prevalence of determinants and estimates of the effect of these risk factors derived from published sources. We conducted a mediation analysis using principal components analysis (PCA) and regression to demonstrate how the association between poverty and TB prevalence is mediated. The prevalence of self-reported TB in the 2006 DHS for India was 545 per 100,000 and ranged from 201 in the highest quintile to 1100 in the lowest quintile. Among those in the poorest population, the PAFs for low body mass index (BMI) and indoor air pollution were 34.2% and 28.5% respectively. The PCA analysis also showed that low BMI had the strongest mediating effect on the association between poverty and prevalent TB (12%, p = 0.019). TB control strategies should be targeted to the poorest populations that are most at risk, and should address the most important determinants of disease--specifically low BMI and indoor air pollution.

  5. Greater ability to express positive emotion is associated with lower projected cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Natalie L; Adams, Kathryn S; Pressman, Sarah D; Consedine, Nathan S

    2017-12-01

    Positive emotion is associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, yet some mechanisms remain unclear. One potential pathway is via emotional competencies/skills. The present study tests whether the ability to facially express positive emotion is associated with CVD risk scores, while controlling for potential confounds and testing for sex moderation. Eighty-two men and women underwent blood draws before completing self-report assessments and a performance test of expressive skill. Positive expressions were scored for degree of 'happiness' using expression coding software. CVD risk scores were calculated using established algorithms based on biological, demographic, and behavioral risk factors. Linear regressions revealed a main effect for skill, with skill in expressing positive emotion associated with lower CVD risk scores. Analyses also revealed a sex-by-skill interaction whereby links between expressive skill and CVD risk scores were stronger among men. Objective tests of expressive skill have methodological advantages, appear to have links to physical health, and offer a novel avenue for research and intervention.

  6. The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T

    1999-11-01

    Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.

  7. 40 CFR 26.405 - Observational research involving greater than minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... greater than minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to the individual subjects. 26.405... but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to the individual subjects. If the IRB finds that an...: (a) The intervention or procedure holds out the prospect of direct benefit to the individual subject...

  8. Tuberculosis and poverty: why are the poor at greater risk in India?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia Oxlade

    Full Text Available Although poverty is widely recognized as an important risk factor for tuberculosis (TB disease, the specific proximal risk factors that mediate this association are less clear. The objective of our study was to investigate the mechanisms by which poverty increases the risk of TB.Using individual level data from 198,754 people from the 2006 Demographic Health Survey (DHS for India, we assessed self-reported TB status, TB determinants and household socioeconomic status. We used these data to calculate the population attributable fractions (PAF for each key TB risk factor based on the prevalence of determinants and estimates of the effect of these risk factors derived from published sources. We conducted a mediation analysis using principal components analysis (PCA and regression to demonstrate how the association between poverty and TB prevalence is mediated.The prevalence of self-reported TB in the 2006 DHS for India was 545 per 100,000 and ranged from 201 in the highest quintile to 1100 in the lowest quintile. Among those in the poorest population, the PAFs for low body mass index (BMI and indoor air pollution were 34.2% and 28.5% respectively. The PCA analysis also showed that low BMI had the strongest mediating effect on the association between poverty and prevalent TB (12%, p = 0.019.TB control strategies should be targeted to the poorest populations that are most at risk, and should address the most important determinants of disease--specifically low BMI and indoor air pollution.

  9. Risk for affective disorders is associated with greater prefrontal gray matter volumes: A prospective longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Baaré, William; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2017-01-01

    transmission. Methods: We used voxel based morphometry to investigate changes in regional GM brain volume, over a seven-year period, in 37 initially healthy individuals having a mono- or di-zygotic twin diagnosed with major depression or bipolar disorder (high-risk group; mean age 41.6 yrs.) as compared to 36...... anterior cingulate, inferior frontal gyrus and temporoparietal regions as compared to low-risk twins. Further, individuals who developed an affective disorder at follow-up (n=12), had relatively the largest GM volumes, both at baseline and follow-up, in the right dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right...

  10. Beyond Hurt Feelings: Investigating Why Some Victims of Bullying Are at Greater Risk for Suicidal Ideation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonanno, Rina A.; Hymel, Shelley

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated why some adolescents who are victimized through peer bullying are more negatively impacted than others. Drawing from research on peer victimization and suicidology, two theoretically derived models were investigated, one examining social hopelessness as a risk factor, the other examining social support as a protective…

  11. Risk aversion and social networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kovářík, Jaromír; van der Leij, M. J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 2 (2014), s. 121-155 ISSN 2194-5993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-22044S Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : clustering coefficient * degree distribution * local/global search Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.447, year: 2014

  12. Active unicameral bone cysts in the upper limb are at greater risk of fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tey, Inn Kuang; Mahadev, Arjandas; Lim, Kevin Boon Leong; Lee, Eng Hin; Nathan, Saminathan Suresh

    2009-08-01

    To elucidate the natural history of unicameral bone cyst (UBC) and risk factors for pathological fracture. 14 males and 8 females (mean age, 9 years) diagnosed with UBC were reviewed. Cyst location, symptoms, and whether there was any fracture or surgery were recorded. Cyst parameters were measured on radiographs, and included (1) the cyst index, (2) the ratio of the widest cyst diameter to the growth plate diameter, and (3) the adjusted distance of the cyst border from the growth plate. There were 11 upper- and 11 lower-limb cysts. 13 patients had pathological fractures and 9 did not. 20 patients were treated conservatively with limb immobilisation; 2 underwent curettage and bone grafting (one resolved and one did not). Seven cysts resolved (5 had fractures and 2 did not). The risk of fracture was higher in the upper than lower limbs (100% vs 18%, pFractured cysts were larger than unfractured cysts (mean cyst index, 4.5 vs. 2.2, p=0.07). Active cysts were more likely to fracture. Conservative management had a 30% resolution rate. Surgery should be considered for large active cysts in the upper limbs in order to minimise the fracture risk.

  13. Sewage-effluent phosphorus: A greater risk to river eutrophication than agricultural phosphorus?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarvie, Helen P.; Neal, Colin; Withers, Paul J.A.

    2006-01-01

    Phosphorus (P) concentrations from water quality monitoring at 54 UK river sites across seven major lowland catchment systems are examined in relation to eutrophication risk and to the relative importance of point and diffuse sources. The over-riding evidence indicates that point (effluent) rather than diffuse (agricultural) sources of phosphorus provide the most significant risk for river eutrophication, even in rural areas with high agricultural phosphorus losses. Traditionally, the relative importance of point and diffuse sources has been assessed from annual P flux budgets, which are often dominated by diffuse inputs in storm runoff from intensively managed agricultural land. However, the ecological risk associated with nuisance algal growth in rivers is largely linked to soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations during times of ecological sensitivity (spring/summer low-flow periods), when biological activity is at its highest. The relationships between SRP and total phosphorus (TP; total dissolved P + suspended particulate P) concentrations within UK rivers are evaluated in relation to flow and boron (B; a tracer of sewage effluent). SRP is the dominant P fraction (average 67% of TP) in all of the rivers monitored, with higher percentages at low flows. In most of the rivers the highest SRP concentrations occur under low-flow conditions and SRP concentrations are diluted as flows increase, which is indicative of point, rather than diffuse, sources. Strong positive correlations between SRP and B (also TP and B) across all the 54 river monitoring sites also confirm the primary importance of point source controls of phosphorus concentrations in these rivers, particularly during spring and summer low flows, which are times of greatest eutrophication risk. Particulate phosphorus (PP) may form a significant proportion of the phosphorus load to rivers, particularly during winter storm events, but this is of questionable relevance for river eutrophication

  14. Gratitude is associated with greater levels of protective factors and lower levels of risks in African American adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mindy; Kibler, Jeffrey L; Sly, Kaye

    2013-10-01

    The literature suggests gratitude is associated with positive youth development. The current study examined the relationship between gratitude and protective/risk factors among African American youth. Adolescents (N = 389; 50.4% males) ages 12-14 completed measures of gratitude (moral affect and life-orientation), protective factors (e.g., academic and activity engagement, family relationship), and high-risk behaviors (e.g., sexual attitudes and behaviors, drug/alcohol use). Results indicated greater moral affect gratitude was the only variable significantly associated with greater academic interest, better academic performance, and more extra-curricular activity engagement. Greater moral affect and life-orientation gratitude both significantly correlated with positive family relationship. Greater life-orientation gratitude was the only variable significantly associated with abstinence from sexual intimacy, sexual intercourse, likelihood of engaging in sex during primary school, and abstinence from drug/alcohol use. The findings suggest that moral affect gratitude may enhance protective factors while life-orientation gratitude may buffer against high-risk behaviors among African American youth. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Children in family foster care have greater health risks and less involvement in Child Health Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, M; Emmelin, M; Hjern, A; Rosvall, M

    2015-05-01

    This study investigated the impact of being in family foster care on selected health determinants and participation in Child Health Services (CHS). Two groups of 100 children, born between 1992 and 2008, were studied using data from Swedish Child Health Services for the preschool period up to the age of six. The first group had been in family foster care, and the controls, matched for age, sex and geographic location, had not. Descriptive statistics were used to describe differences in health determinants and participation in Child Health Services between the two groups. The foster care group had higher health risks, with lower rates of breastfeeding and higher levels of parental smoking. They were less likely to have received immunisations and attended key nurse or physician visits and speech and vision screening. Missing data for the phenylketonuria test were more common in children in family foster care. Children in family foster care were exposed to more health risks than the control children and had lower participation in the universal child health programme during the preschool period. These results call for secure access to high-quality preventive health care for this particularly vulnerable group of children. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay, Summer N; Clithero, John A; Harris, Alison M; Reed, Catherine L

    2017-01-01

    Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

  17. Loss-Averse Retailer’s Optimal Ordering Policies for Perishable Products with Customer Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the loss-averse retailer’s ordering policies for perishable product with customer returns. With the introduction of the segmental loss utility function, we depict the retailer’s loss aversion decision bias and establish the loss-averse retailer’s ordering policy model. We derive that the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantity with customer returns exists and is unique. By comparison, we obtain that both the risk-neutral and the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantities depend on the inventory holding cost and the marginal shortage cost. Through the sensitivity analysis, we also discuss the effect of loss-averse coefficient and the ratio of return on the loss-averse retailer’s optimal order quantity with customer returns.

  18. Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer N. Clay

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM to choice and response time (RT data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

  19. Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    We study risk taking on behalf of others, both when choices involve losses and when they do not. A large-scale incentivized experiment with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population is conducted. We find that deciding for others reduces loss aversion. When choosing between risky prospects...... when losses loom. This finding is consistent with an interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision making driven by emotions and that these emotions are reduced when making decisions for others....... for which losses are ruled out by design, subjects make the same choices for themselves as for others. In contrast, when losses are possible, we find that the two types of choices differ. In particular, we find that subjects who make choices for themselves take less risk than those who decide for others...

  20. On Loss Aversion, Level-1 Reasoning, and Betting

    OpenAIRE

    Ido Erev; Sharon Gilat-Yihyie; Davide Marchiori; Doron Sonsino

    2013-01-01

    Previous research suggests that human reaction to risky opportunities reflects two contradicting biases: Òloss aversion", and Òlimited level of reasoning" that leads to overconfidence. Rejection of attractive gambles is explained by loss aversion, while counterproductive risk seeking is attributed to limited level of reasoning. The current research highlights a shortcoming of this popular (but often implicit) "contradicting biases" assertion. Studies of "negative-sum betting games" reveal hig...

  1. Benefit-cost-risk analysis of alternatives for greater-confinement disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.; Luner, C.; Peterson, J.M.

    1983-01-01

    Seven alternatives are included in the analysis: near-surface disposal; improved waste form; below-ground engineered structure; augered shaft; shale fracturing; shallow geologic repository; and high-level waste repository. These alternatives are representative generic facilities that span the range from low-level waste disposal practice to high-level waste disposal practice, tentatively ordered according to an expected increasing cost and/or effectiveness of confinement. They have been chosen to enable an assessment of the degree of confinement that represents an appropriate balance between public health and safety requirements and costs rather than identification of a specific preferred facility design. The objective of the analysis is to provide a comparative ranking of the alternatives on the basis of benefit-cost-risk considerations

  2. Greater rupture risk for familial as compared to sporadic unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Joseph P; Brown, Robert D; Sauerbeck, Laura; Hornung, Richard; Huston, John; Woo, Daniel; Anderson, Craig; Rouleau, Guy; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Flaherty, Matthew L; Meissner, Irene; Foroud, Tatiana; Moomaw, E Charles J; Connolly, E Sander

    2009-06-01

    The risk of intracranial aneurysm (IA) rupture in asymptomatic members of families who have multiple affected individuals is not known. First-degree unaffected relatives of those with a familial history of IA who had a history of smoking or hypertension but no known IA were offered cerebral MR angiography (MRA) and followed yearly as part of a National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke-funded study of familial IA (Familial Intracranial Aneurysm [FIA] Study). A total of 2874 subjects from 542 FIA Study families were enrolled. After study enrollment, MRAs were performed in 548 FIA Study family members with no known history of IA. Of these 548 subjects, 113 subjects (20.6%) had 148 IAs by MRA of whom 5 subjects had IA >or=7 mm. Two subjects with an unruptured IA by MRA/CT angiography (3-mm and 4-mm anterior communicating artery) subsequently had rupture of their IA. This represents an annual rate of 1.2 ruptures per 100 subjects (1.2% per year; 95% CI, 0.14% to 4.3% per year). None of the 435 subjects with a negative MRA have had a ruptured IA. Survival curves between the MRA-positive and -negative cohorts were significantly different (P=0.004). This rupture rate of unruptured IA in the FIA Study cohort of 1.2% per year is approximately 17 times higher than the rupture rate for subjects with an unruptured IA in the International Study of Unruptured Aneurysm Study with a matched distribution of IA size and location 0.069% per year. Small unruptured IAs in patients from FIA Study families may have a higher risk of rupture than sporadic unruptured IAs of similar size, which should be considered in the management of these patients.

  3. Good luck, bad luck, and ambiguity aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Briony D. Pulford; Poonam Gill

    2014-01-01

    We report a series of experiments investigating the influence of feeling lucky or unlucky on people's choice of known-risk or ambiguous options using the traditional Ellsberg Urns decision-making task. We induced a state of feeling lucky or unlucky in subjects by using a rigged wheel-of-fortune game, which just missed either the bankrupt or the jackpot outcome. In the first experiment a large reversal of the usual ambiguity aversion effect was shown, indicating that feeling ...

  4. The ontogeny of ethanol aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saalfield, Jessica; Spear, Linda

    2016-03-15

    Recent work has suggested separate developmental periods within the broader framework of adolescence, with data suggesting distinct alterations and vulnerabilities within these intervals. While previous research has suggested reduced sensitivity to the aversive effects of alcohol in adolescence relative to adults, a more detailed ontogeny of this effect has yet to be conducted. The adolescent brain undergoes significant transitions throughout adolescence, including in regions linked with drug reward and aversion. The current study aimed to determine the ontogeny of ethanol aversion by utilizing a conditioned taste aversion procedure at six different ages to test the hypothesis that the transitions into, through, and out of adolescence are associated with ontogenetic alterations in sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol. Non-deprived animals given Boost® as the conditioned stimulus (CS) were used in Experiment 1, whereas Experiment 2 used water-restricted animals provided with a saccharin/sucrose solution as the CS. In both experiments, an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol was evident in adolescents compared to adults, although more age differences were apparent in water deprived animals than when a highly palatable CS was given to ad libitum animals. Overall, the data suggest an attenuated sensitivity to the aversive properties of ethanol that is most pronounced during pre- and early adolescence, declining thereafter to reach the enhanced aversive sensitivity of adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predation risk, elk, and aspen: tests of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winnie, John A

    2012-12-01

    Aspen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem are hypothesized to be recovering from decades of heavy browsing by elk due to a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade (BMTC). Several authors have suggested that wolves interact with certain terrain features, creating places of high predation risk at fine spatial scales, and that elk avoid these places, which creates refugia for plants. This hypothesized BMTC could release aspen from elk browsing pressure, leading to a patchy recovery in places of high risk. I tested whether four specific, hypothesized fine-scale risk factors are correlated with changes in current elk browsing pressure on aspen, or with aspen recruitment since wolf reintroduction, in the Daly Creek drainage in Yellowstone National Park, and near two aspen enclosures outside of the park boundary. Aspen were not responding to hypothesized fine-scale risk factors in ways consistent with the current BMTC hypothesis.

  6. Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kermer, Deborah A; Driver-Linn, Erin; Wilson, Timothy D; Gilbert, Daniel T

    2006-08-01

    Loss aversion occurs because people expect losses to have greater hedonic impact than gains of equal magnitude. In two studies, people predicted that losses in a gambling task would have greater hedonic impact than would gains of equal magnitude, but when people actually gambled, losses did not have as much of an emotional impact as they predicted. People overestimated the hedonic impact of losses because they underestimated their tendency to rationalize losses and overestimated their tendency to dwell on losses. The asymmetrical impact of losses and gains was thus more a property of affective forecasts than a property of affective experience.

  7. Rethinking International Counterterrorism Assistance to the Greater Horn of Africa: Toward a Regional Risk Reduction Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Schwartz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Horn of Africa has long been a recipient of foreign security assistance, with significant funds increasingly devoted to supporting subregional civilian-oriented counterterrorism efforts over the past decade. Despite efforts to better coordinate delivery, counterterrorism programming in the subregion generally remains fragmented, short-term, and siloed in implementation. This article argues that it is time to rethink the international community’s approach to counterterrorism assistance to the Horn of Africa and calls for a cohesive regional approach that not only bridges the gap between security and development, but also the gap between counterterrorism and human security. It emphasizes that the international community must not only better coordinate existing streams of counterterrorism assistance to the region, but also rethink how this assistance is designed and the ways it can be delivered to complement broader subregional development and security agendas. After a brief introduction to international counterterrorism assistance to the Horn of Africa, the article examines linkages across three thematic streams of programming being delivered to the subregion: anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism; criminal justice capacity building assistance to counter terrorism; and, countering violent extremism. This discussion will highlight the need for a regional risk reduction strategy for the Horn of Africa that not only builds on the interplay of different streams of counterterrorism assistance, but on synergies across broader subregional development and security agendas as well.

  8. What to expect from a greater geographic dispersion of wind farms?-A risk portfolio approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drake, Ben; Hubacek, Klaus

    2007-01-01

    The UK, like many other industrialised countries, is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. To achieve this goal the UK is increasingly turning towards wind power as a source of emissions free energy. However, the variable nature of wind power generation makes it an unreliable energy source, especially at higher rates of penetration. Likewise the aim of this paper is to measure the potential reduction in wind power variability that could be realised as a result of geographically dispersing the location of wind farm sites. To achieve this aim wind speed data will be used to simulate two scenarios. The first scenario involves locating a total of 2.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind power capacity in a single location within the UK while the second scenario consists of sharing the same amount of capacity amongst four different locations. A risk portfolio approach as used in financial appraisals is then applied in the second scenario to decide upon the allocation of wind power capacity, amongst the four wind farm sites, that succeeds in minimising overall variability for a given level of wind power generation. The findings of this paper indicate that reductions in the order of 36% in wind power variability are possible as a result of distributing wind power capacity

  9. Repeatable aversion across threat types is linked with life-history traits but is dependent on how aversion is measured.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Gabrielle L; Reichert, Michael S; Crane, Jodie M S; O'Shea, William; Quinn, John L

    2018-02-01

    Personality research suggests that individual differences in risk aversion may be explained by links with life-history variation. However, few empirical studies examine whether repeatable differences in risk avoidance behaviour covary with life-history traits among individuals in natural populations, or how these links vary depending on the context and the way risk aversion is measured. We measured two different risk avoidance behaviours (latency to enter the nest and inspection time) in wild great tits ( Parus major ) in two different contexts-response to a novel object and to a predator cue placed at the nest-box during incubation---and related these behaviours to female reproductive success and condition. Females responded equally strongly to both stimuli, and although both behaviours were repeatable, they did not correlate. Latency to enter was negatively related to body condition and the number of offspring fledged. By contrast, inspection time was directly explained by whether incubating females had been flushed from the nest before the trial began. Thus, our inferences on the relationship between risk aversion and fitness depend on how risk aversion was measured. Our results highlight the limitations of drawing conclusions about the relevance of single measures of a personality trait such as risk aversion.

  10. Combined Effects of Glucocorticoid and Noradrenergic Activity on Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margittai, Zsofia; Nave, Gideon; Van Wingerden, Marijn; Schnitzler, Alfons; Schwabe, Lars; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    Loss aversion is a well-known behavioral regularity in financial decision making, describing humans' tendency to overweigh losses compared to gains of the same amount. Recent research indicates that stress and associated hormonal changes affect loss aversion, yet the underlying neuroendocrine mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the causal influence of two major stress neuromodulators, cortisol and noradrenaline, on loss aversion during financial decision making. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subject design, we orally administered either the α2-adrenergic antagonist yohimbine (increasing noradrenergic stimulation), hydrocortisone, both substances, or a placebo to healthy young men. We tested the treatments' influence on a financial decision-making task measuring loss aversion and risk attitude. We found that both drugs combined, relative to either drug by itself, reduced loss aversion in the absence of an effect on risk attitude or choice consistency. Our data suggest that concurrent glucocorticoid and noradrenergic activity prompts an alignment of reward- with loss-sensitivity, and thus diminishes loss aversion. Our results have implications for the understanding of the susceptibility to biases in decision making.

  11. Motivated attention and family risk for depression: Neuronal generator patterns at scalp elicited by lateralized aversive pictures reveal blunted emotional responsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayser, Jürgen; Tenke, Craig E; Abraham, Karen S; Alschuler, Daniel M; Alvarenga, Jorge E; Skipper, Jamie; Warner, Virginia; Bruder, Gerard E; Weissman, Myrna M

    2017-01-01

    Behavioral and electrophysiologic evidence suggests that major depression (MDD) involves right parietotemporal dysfunction, a region activated by arousing affective stimuli. Building on prior event-related potential (ERP) findings (Kayser et al. 2016 NeuroImage 142:337-350), this study examined whether these abnormalities also characterize individuals at clinical high risk for MDD. We systematically explored the impact of family risk status and personal history of depression and anxiety on three distinct stages of emotional processing comprising the late positive potential (LPP). ERPs (72 channels) were recorded from 74 high and 53 low risk individuals (age 13-59 years, 58 male) during a visual half-field paradigm using highly-controlled pictures of cosmetic surgery patients showing disordered (negative) or healed (neutral) facial areas before or after treatment. Reference-free current source density (CSD) transformations of ERP waveforms were quantified by temporal principal components analysis (tPCA). Component scores of prominent CSD-tPCA factors sensitive to emotional content were analyzed via permutation tests and repeated measures ANOVA for mixed factorial designs with unstructured covariance matrix, including gender, age and clinical covariates. Factor-based distributed inverse solutions provided descriptive estimates of emotional brain activations at group level corresponding to hierarchical activations along ventral visual processing stream. Risk status affected emotional responsivity (increased positivity to negative-than-neutral stimuli) overlapping early N2 sink (peak latency 212 ms), P3 source (385 ms), and a late centroparietal source (630 ms). High risk individuals had reduced right-greater-than-left emotional lateralization involving occipitotemporal cortex (N2 sink) and bilaterally reduced emotional effects involving posterior cingulate (P3 source) and inferior temporal cortex (630 ms) when compared to those at low risk. While the early

  12. Type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes: greater than fourfold risk among Indigenous compared with non-Indigenous Australian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Catherine R; Oldenburg, Brian; Wilson, Alyce N; Eades, Sandra J; O'Dea, Kerin; Oats, Jeremy J N; Wolfe, Rory

    2016-02-01

    Gestational diabetes is associated with a high risk of type 2 diabetes. However, progression rates among Indigenous women in Australia who experience high prevalence of gestational diabetes are unknown. This retrospective cohort study includes all births to women at a regional hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, coded as having 'gestational diabetes' from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010 (1098 births) and receiving laboratory postpartum screening from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2011 (n = 483 births). Women who did not receive postpartum screening were excluded from the denominator. Data were linked between hospital electronic records, routinely collected birth data and laboratories, with sample validation by reviews of medical records. Analysis was conducted using Cox-proportional regression models. Indigenous women had a greater than fourfold risk of developing type 2 diabetes within 8 years of having gestational diabetes, compared with non-Indigenous women (hazards ratio 4.55, 95% confidence interval 2.63-7.88, p Australian women have a greater than fourfold risk of developing type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes. Strategies are urgently needed to reduce rates of type 2 diabetes by supporting a healthy weight and breastfeeding and to improve postpartum screening among Indigenous women with gestational diabetes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations for greater confinement disposal compared to shallow land burial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Lester, D.H.; Robertson, L.D.; Spaeth, M.E.; Stoddard, J.A.; Dickman, P.T.

    1984-09-01

    A limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations of greater confinement disposal (GCD) compared to shallow land burial (SLB) are presented. This study is limited to an analysis of the postclosure phase of hypothetical GCD and SLB facilities. Selected release scenarios are used which bound the range of risks to a maximally exposed individual and a hypothetical population. Based on the scenario assessments, GCD had a significant risk advantage over SLB for normal exposure pathways at both humid and arid sites, particularly for the human intrusion scenario. Since GCD costs are somewhat higher than SLB, it is necessary to weigh the higher costs of GCD against the higher risks of SLB. In this regard, GCD should be pursued as an alternative to SLB for certain types of low-level waste, and as an alternative to processing for wastes requiring improved stabilization or higher integrity packaging to be compatible with SLB. There are two reasons for this conclusion. First, GCD might diminish public apprehension regarding the disposal of wastes perceived to be too hazardous for SLB. Second, GCD may be a relatively cost-effective alternative to various stabilization and packaging schemes required to meet 10 CFR 61 near-surface requirements as well as being a cost-effective alternative to deep geologic disposal. Radionuclide transport through the biosphere and resultant dose consequences were determined using the RADTRAN radionuclide transport code. 19 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

  14. Angiogenesis in symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis: predominance of the inhibitor endostatin is related to a greater extent and risk of recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenillas, Juan F; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Montaner, Joan; Rosell, Anna; Molina, Carlos A; Rovira, Alex; Ribó, Marc; Sánchez, Esther; Quintana, Manuel

    2005-01-01

    Angiogenesis may be beneficial in chronic myocardial and limb ischemia, but its role in intracranial atherosclerosis remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the pro-angiogenic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and the anti-angiogenic endostatin, and the extent and risk of recurrence of symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis. Of a total of 94 consecutive patients with symptomatic intracranial stenoses, 40 fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Intracranial stenoses were confirmed by magnetic resonance angiography. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including diffusion-weighted sequences was conducted. Plasmatic VEGF and endostatin were determined from blood samples obtained 3 months after stroke onset, and patients were followed-up thereafter. A total of 144 intracranial stenoses were confirmed (median number per patient=3). Endostatin/VEGF ratio gradually augmented with the increasing number of intracranial stenoses (r=0.35, P=0.02). Diabetes mellitus (OR, 6.04; CI, 1.1 to 32.2; P=0.03) and a higher endostatin/VEGF ratio (OR, 15.7; CI, 2.2 to 112.3; P=0.006) were independently associated with a greater extent of intracranial atherosclerosis. During a median follow-up of 13 months, 8 patients (20%) experienced a new cerebral ischemic event. A higher baseline endostatin concentration was an independent predictor of new events (hazard ratio, 7.24; CI, 1.6 to 33.8; P=0.011) in a Cox regression model after adjustment for age, sex, number of stenotic vessels, and risk factors. Patients with a higher endostatin level had a lower survival free of new events (P=0.01, log-rank test). A predominance of the inhibitor endostatin within the endogenous angiogenic response is associated with a greater extent and risk of recurrence of symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis, suggesting that angiogenesis may be beneficial in this condition.

  15. Deciding for Others Reduces Loss Aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ola; Holm, Håkan J.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded....... In contrast, when losses are possible, decisions on behalf of others are more risky. Using structural estimation, we show that this increase in risk stems from a decrease in loss aversion when others are affected by their choices.......We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded...

  16. Fine particulate matter components and mortality in Greater Houston: Did the risk reduce from 2000 to 2011?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Suyang; Zhang, Kai, E-mail: Kai.Zhang@uth.tmc.edu

    2015-12-15

    Fine particulate matter (less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter; PM{sub 2.5}) pollution poses a major environmental threat in Greater Houston due to rapid economic growth and the numerous PM{sub 2.5} sources including ports, vehicles, and the largest petrochemical industry in the United States (U.S.). Our objectives were to estimate the short-term associations between the PM{sub 2.5} components and mortality during 2000–2011, and evaluate whether these associations have changed over time. A total of 333,317 deaths were included in our assessment, with an average of 76 deaths per day. We selected 17 PM{sub 2.5} components from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chemical Speciation Network, and then applied Poisson regression models to assess the associations between the PM{sub 2.5} components and mortality. Additionally, we repeated our analysis for two consecutive periods: 2000–2005 and 2006–2011. Interquartile range increases in ammonium (0.881 μg/m{sup 3}), nitrate (0.487 μg/m{sup 3}), sulfate (2.245 μg/m{sup 3}), and vanadium (0.004 μg/m{sup 3}) were associated with an increased risk in mortality of 0.69% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26, 1.12%), 0.38% (95% CI: 0.11, 0.66%), 0.61% (95% CI: 0.15, 1.06%), and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.12, 1.04%), respectively. Seasonal analysis suggested that the associations were strongest during the winter months. The association between PM{sub 2.5} mass and mortality decreased during 2000–2011, however, the PM{sub 2.5} components showed no notable changes in mortality risk over time. Our study indicates that the short-term associations between PM{sub 2.5} and mortality differ across the PM{sub 2.5} components and suggests that future air pollution control measures should not only focus on mass but also pollutant sources. - Highlights: • PM{sub 2.5} concentrations were associated with increased mortality risk. • A few major PM{sub 2.5} components were associated with increased mortality risk.

  17. Greater Fall Risk in Elderly Women Than in Men Is Associated With Increased Gait Variability During Multitasking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Jonas; Nordström, Anna; Nordström, Peter

    2016-06-01

    As 90% of fractures are caused by falls, and as fractures are more common in elderly women than in elderly men, a better understanding of potential sex differences in fall rates and underlying mechanisms is needed. The purpose of this study was to determine whether women are more prone than men to falling, and to evaluate whether the risk of falling is associated with variations in gait patterns. The cohort for this prospective observational study consisted of 1390 community-dwelling men and women aged 70 years, examined in a health survey between July 2012 and November 2014. Gait patterns were measured using a computerized walkway system during normal-speed, fast-speed, and dual-task trials. Triaxial accelerometers were used to collect objective data on physical activity, and self-reported fall data were collected by telephone 6 and 12 months after examination. Incident low-energy falls were defined as unexpected events in which participants came to rest on the ground. During the follow-up period, 148 study participants (88 women, 60 men; P = .01) reported falls. After adjusting for multiple confounders, including objective measures of physical activity, socioeconomic factors, cardiovascular disease, and cognitive function, the odds ratio for falling in women was 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-2.19). Variations in gait pattern were significantly (20%-40%) increased in fallers compared with nonfallers during the dual-task trial for step width, step length, stride length, step time, stance time, stride velocity, and single support time (all P women showed 15% to 35% increased variability in all of these gait parameters during the dual-task trial compared with men (all P women were at greater risk of falls compared with their male counterparts. This increased risk was associated with increased variation in gait pattern during dual-task activities, and may contribute to women's greater fracture risk compared with men. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The

  18. Fine particulate matter components and mortality in Greater Houston: Did the risk reduce from 2000 to 2011?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Suyang; Zhang, Kai

    2015-01-01

    Fine particulate matter (less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter; PM_2_._5) pollution poses a major environmental threat in Greater Houston due to rapid economic growth and the numerous PM_2_._5 sources including ports, vehicles, and the largest petrochemical industry in the United States (U.S.). Our objectives were to estimate the short-term associations between the PM_2_._5 components and mortality during 2000–2011, and evaluate whether these associations have changed over time. A total of 333,317 deaths were included in our assessment, with an average of 76 deaths per day. We selected 17 PM_2_._5 components from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chemical Speciation Network, and then applied Poisson regression models to assess the associations between the PM_2_._5 components and mortality. Additionally, we repeated our analysis for two consecutive periods: 2000–2005 and 2006–2011. Interquartile range increases in ammonium (0.881 μg/m"3), nitrate (0.487 μg/m"3), sulfate (2.245 μg/m"3), and vanadium (0.004 μg/m"3) were associated with an increased risk in mortality of 0.69% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26, 1.12%), 0.38% (95% CI: 0.11, 0.66%), 0.61% (95% CI: 0.15, 1.06%), and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.12, 1.04%), respectively. Seasonal analysis suggested that the associations were strongest during the winter months. The association between PM_2_._5 mass and mortality decreased during 2000–2011, however, the PM_2_._5 components showed no notable changes in mortality risk over time. Our study indicates that the short-term associations between PM_2_._5 and mortality differ across the PM_2_._5 components and suggests that future air pollution control measures should not only focus on mass but also pollutant sources. - Highlights: • PM_2_._5 concentrations were associated with increased mortality risk. • A few major PM_2_._5 components were associated with increased mortality risk. • Associations were generally strongest in winter in Greater

  19. Are ambiguity aversion and ambiguity intolerance identical? A neuroeconomics investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yusuke; Fujino, Junya; Ideno, Takashi; Okubo, Shigetaka; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Miyata, Jun; Kawada, Ryosaku; Fujimoto, Shinsuke; Kubota, Manabu; Sasamoto, Akihiko; Hirose, Kimito; Takeuchi, Hideaki; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, there has been growing interest in understanding a person's reaction to ambiguous situations, and two similar constructs related to ambiguity, "ambiguity aversion" and "ambiguity intolerance," are defined in different disciplines. In the field of economic decision-making research, "ambiguity aversion" represents a preference for known risks relative to unknown risks. On the other hand, in clinical psychology, "ambiguity intolerance" describes the tendency to perceive ambiguous situations as undesirable. However, it remains unclear whether these two notions derived from different disciplines are identical or not. To clarify this issue, we combined an economic task, psychological questionnaires, and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a sample of healthy volunteers. The individual ambiguity aversion tendency parameter, as measured by our economic task, was negatively correlated with agreeableness scores on the self-reported version of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. However, it was not correlated with scores of discomfort with ambiguity, one of the subscales of the Need for Closure Scale. Furthermore, the ambiguity aversion tendency parameter was negatively correlated with gray matter (GM) volume of areas in the lateral prefrontal cortex and parietal cortex, whereas ambiguity intolerance was not correlated with GM volume in any region. Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion, described in decision theory, may not necessarily be identical to ambiguity intolerance, referred to in clinical psychology. Cautious applications of decision theory to clinical neuropsychiatry are recommended.

  20. Relapse insomnia increases greater risk of anxiety and depression: evidence from a population-based 4-year cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ping-Jen; Huang, Charles Lung-Cheng; Weng, Shih-Feng; Wu, Ming-Ping; Ho, Chung-Han; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Tsai, Wan-Chi; Hsu, Ya-Wen

    2017-10-01

    We investigated the longitudinal impacts of insomnia on the subsequent developments of anxiety and depression during a four-year follow-up. We further categorized individuals with insomnia into different insomnia subgroups to examine whether the risk of anxiety and depression varies by subtype. Participants were identified from National Health Insurance enrollees in Taiwan during 2002-2009. The study included 19,273 subjects with insomnia and 38,546 matched subjects without insomnia. All subjects did not have previous diagnosis of insomnia, sleep apnea, anxiety, or depression. Compared with non-insomniacs, insomniacs had a higher risk of developing anxiety only [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 8.83, 95% CI = 7.59-10.27], depression only (adjusted HR = 8.48, 95% CI = 6.92-10.39), and both anxiety and depression (adjusted HR = 17.98, 95% CI = 12.65-25.56). When breaking down the insomnia subgroups, individuals with a relapse of insomnia (adjusted HR = 10.42-26.80) had the highest risk of anxiety only, depression only, and both anxiety and depression, followed by persistent insomnia (adjusted HR = 9.82-18.98), then remitted insomnia (adjusted HR = 4.50-8.27). All three insomnia subgroups had a greater four-year cumulative incidence rate than the non-insomnia group for anxiety only, depression only, and both anxiety and depression (p anxiety or/and depression. Awareness of insomnia and treatment of insomnia should be recommended at clinics, and patterns of insomnia should be monitored to help treatment and control of subsequent psychiatric disorders. Future research with comprehensive data collection is needed to identify factors that contribute to different insomnia subtypes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A pilot study of loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities in cocaine users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Justin C; Beckmann, Joshua S; Rush, Craig R; Stoops, William W

    2017-11-01

    Numerous studies in behavioral economics have demonstrated that individuals are more sensitive to the prospect of a loss than a gain (i.e., loss aversion). Although loss aversion has been well described in "healthy" populations, little research exists in individuals with substance use disorders. This gap is notable considering the prominent role that choice and decision-making play in drug use. The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate loss aversion in active cocaine users. Current cocaine users (N=38; 42% female) participated in this within-subjects laboratory pilot study. Subjects completed a battery of tasks designed to assess loss aversion for drug and non-drug commodities under varying risk conditions. Standardized loss aversion coefficients (λ) were compared to theoretically and empirically relevant normative values (i.e., λ=2). Compared to normative loss aversion coefficient values, a precise and consistent decrease in loss aversion was observed in cocaine users (sample λ≈1). These values were observed across drug and non-drug commodities as well as under certain and risky conditions. These data represent the first systematic study of loss aversion in cocaine-using populations and provide evidence for equal sensitivity to losses and gains or loss equivalence. Futures studies should evaluate the specificity of these effects to a history of cocaine use as well as the impact of manipulations of loss aversion on drug use to determine how this phenomenon may contribute to intervention development efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Coordination of a Random Yield Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Supplier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiarong Luo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the coordination of a supply chain consisting of a loss-averse supplier and a risk-neutral buyer who orders products from the supplier who suffers from random yield to meet a deterministic demand. We derive the risk-neutral buyer’s optimal order policy and the loss-averse supplier’s optimal production policy under shortage-penalty-surplus-subsidy (SPSS contracts. We also analyze the impacts of loss aversion on the loss-averse supplier’s production decision making and find that the loss-averse supplier may produce less than, equal to, or more than the risk-neutral supplier. Then, we provide explicit conditions on which the random yield supply chain with a loss-averse supplier can be coordinated under SPSS contracts. Finally, adopting numerical examples, we find that when the shortage penalty is low, the buyer’s optimal order quantity will increase, while the supplier’s optimal production quantity will first decrease and then increase as the loss aversion level increases. When the shortage penalty is high, the buyer’s optimal order quantity will decrease but the supplier’s optimal production quantity will always increase as the loss aversion level increases. Furthermore, the numerical examples provide strong evidence for the view that SPSS contracts can effectively improve the performance of the whole supply chain.

  3. Is compromised oral health associated with a greater risk of mortality among nursing home residents? A controlled clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Anna-Luisa; Hassel, Alexander Jochen; Schröder, Johannes; Rammelsberg, Peter; Zenthöfer, Andreas

    2017-08-30

    The objective of this controlled clinical study was to evaluate the association between oral health and 1-year mortality among nursing home residents with or without oral health intervention. This research was part of a multidisciplinary intervention study (EVI-P) performed in 14 nursing homes in Germany. Two-hundred and nineteen nursing home residents were included in the study and assigned to an intervention group, for which dental health education was offered and ultrasonic baths were used for denture cleaning (n = 144), or to a control group (n = 75). Before the intervention, each participant was examined, and dental status, plaque control record (PCR), Denture Hygiene Index, and results from the Revised Oral Assessment Guide were recorded. Amount of care needed and dementia were also assessed, by use of the Barthel Index and the Mini Mental State Examination, respectively. Participant mortality was determined after 12 months, and bivariate analysis and logistic regression models were used to evaluate possible factors affecting mortality. Bivariate analysis detected a direct association between greater mortality and being in the control group (p = .038). Participants with higher PCR were also more likely to die during the study period (p = .049). For dentate participants, the protective effect of being in the intervention group was confirmed by multivariate analysis in which covariates such as age and gender were considered. Oral hygiene and oral health seem to affect the risk of mortality of nursing home residents. Dental intervention programs seem to reduce the risk of 1-year mortality among nursing home residents having remaining natural teeth. Further studies, with larger sample sizes and evaluation of the causes of death, are necessary to investigate the reasons for these associations.

  4. Plate fixation for proximal chevron osteotomy has greater risk for hallux valgus recurrence than Kirschner wire fixation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chul-Hyun; Ahn, Ji-Yong; Kim, Yu-Mi; Lee, Woo-Chun

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the results of hallux valgus surgery between feet fixed with Kirschner wires and those fixed with a plate and screws. Between December 2008 and November 2009, 53 patients (62 feet) were treated with proximal chevron osteotomy and distal soft tissue procedure for symptomatic moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity. Thirty-four patients (41 feet) were stabilised with Kirschner wires (K-wire group) and 19 patients (21 feet) were stabilised with a locking plate (plate group). Clinical results were assessed using American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) score. Radiographic parameters were compared between these groups. Recurrence rate at the last follow-up was compared between the K-wire and plate groups. Mean AOFAS score was lower in the plate group, however, the difference between the groups was not statistically significant in AOFAS score at the last follow-up. Hallux valgus angle and intermetatarsal angle were significantly larger in the plate group at the last follow-up. Mean 1-2 metatarsal (MT) distance on immediately postoperative radiographs was significant larger in the plate group. Four (9.8 %) of the 41 feet in the K-wire group and 7 (33.3 %) of the 21 feet in the plate group showed hallux valgus recurrence at the last follow-up. The plate group had a significantly higher risk of recurrence than the K-wire group. Fixation of proximal chevron osteotomy using a plate and screws has a greater risk of hallux valgus recurrence than fixation using Kirschner wires.

  5. On Loss Aversion, Level-1 Reasoning, and Betting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erev, Ido; Gilat-Yihyie, Sharon; Marchiori, Davide

    2014-01-01

    Previous research suggests that human reaction to risky opportunities reflects two contradicting biases: “loss aversion”, and “limited level of reasoning” that leads to overconfidence. Rejection of attractive gambles is explained by loss aversion, while counterproductive risk seeking is attributed...... to limited level of reasoning. The current research highlights a shortcoming of this popular (but often implicit) “contradicting biases” assertion. Studies of “negative-sum betting games” reveal high rate of counterproductive betting even when limited level of reasoning and loss aversion imply no betting...

  6. Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractProspect theory and loss aversion play a dominant role in behavioral finance. In this paper we derive closed-form solutions for optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion. When confronted with gains a loss averse investor behaves similar to a portfolio insurer. When confronted with

  7. Aversive racism in Spain: testing the theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojcieszak, M.

    2015-01-01

    This study applies the aversive racism framework to Spain and tests whether aversive racism depends on intergroup contact. Relying on a 3 (qualifications) by 3 (ethnicity) experiment, this study finds that aversive racism is especially pronounced against the Mexican job applicant, and emerges among

  8. The risk of cirrhosis in non-alcohol drinkers is greater in female than male betel nut chewers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Yu-Hua; Wang, Lee; Ko, Pei-Chieh; Lan, Shou-Jen; Liaw, Yung-Po

    2018-02-02

    The association of betel nut with liver cirrhosis among alcohol drinkers has been clearly shown. However, very few studies have shown such an association among non-alcohol drinkers. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between betel nut chewing and cirrhosis among non-alcohol drinkers. This study retrospectively analyzed data retrieved from the 2012 Adult Preventive Medical Services and the National Health Insurance Research Datasets in Taiwan. Participants' information included physical examination and lifestyle, alongside laboratory tests. Betel nut chewers were grouped into three categories: never, occasional and frequent. Diseases were diagnosed using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM). Initially, 1573024 adults aged 40 years and above who engaged in the free adult preventive medical services in 2012 were recruited. However, only 1065246 of them were included in the analysis. Chi-square test and logistic regression were used for the analyses. After multivariable adjustments, there were significant relationships between cirrhosis and betel nut chewing in both sexes (P-trend betel nut chewing and cirrhosis in both male and female non-alcohol drinkers. The risk of cirrhosis was greater in female than male chewers.

  9. Ambiguity aversion is not universal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocher, M.G.; Lahno, Amrei; Trautmann, Stefan

    Assuming universal ambiguity aversion, an extensive theoretical literature studies how ambiguity can account for market anomalies from the perspective of expected utility-based theories. We provide a systematic experimental assessment of ambiguity attitudes in different likelihood ranges, and in the

  10. Aversive Stimulation -- Criteria for Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Patrick A.; Ohlson, Glenn A.

    Criteria for applying aversive stimulation with severely handicapped children are examined, and practical and ethical issues are considered. Factors seen to influence punishment outcomes include timing, intensity, and schedule of reinforcement. Suggested is the need for further research on the comparative effectiveness of positive and negative…

  11. Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk : How banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, W.B.; Nijskens, R.G.M.

    2011-01-01

    A main cause of the crisis of 2007–2009 is the various ways through which banks have transferred credit risk in the financial system. We study the systematic risk of banks before the crisis, using two samples of banks respectively trading Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and issuing Collateralized Loan

  12. Size doesn't really matter: ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

  13. Lycopene supplementation elevates circulating insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 and -2 concentrations in persons at greater risk of colorectal cancer.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Voskuil, D.W.; Bonfrer, J.M.; Korse, C.M.; Doorn, J. van; Cats, A.; Depla, A.C.; Timmer, R.; Witteman, B.J.M.; Leeuwen, F.E. van; Veer, L.J. van 't; Rookus, M.A.; Kampman, E.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Higher circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) concentrations have been related to a greater risk of cancer. Lycopene intake is inversely associated with cancer risk, and experimental studies have shown that it may affect the IGF system, possibly through an effect on IGF-binding

  14. Lycopene supplementation elevates circulating insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-1 and-2 concentrations in persons at greater risk of colorectal cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Voskuil, D.W.; Bonfrer, J.M.; Korse, C.M.; Doorn, J.; Cats, A.; Depla, A.C.; Timmer, R.; Witteman, B.J.M.; Leeuwen, van F.E.; van't Veer, L.J.; Rookus, M.A.; Kampman, E.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Higher circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) concentrations have been related to a greater risk of cancer. Lycopene intake is inversely associated with cancer risk, and experimental studies have shown that it may affect the IGF system, possibly through an effect on IGF-binding

  15. The effects of nicotine on ethanol-induced conditioned taste aversions in Long-Evans rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinker, Jennifer A; Busse, Gregory D; Roma, Peter G; Chen, Scott A; Barr, Christina S; Riley, Anthony L

    2008-04-01

    Overall drug acceptability is thought to be a function of the balance between its rewarding and aversive effects, the latter of which is reportedly affected by polydrug use. Given that nicotine and alcohol are commonly co-used, the present experiments sought to assess nicotine's impact on ethanol's aversive effects within a conditioned taste aversion design. Experiment 1 examined various doses of nicotine (0, 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 mg/kg) to determine a behaviorally active dose, and experiment 2 examined various doses of ethanol (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 g/kg) to determine a dose that produced intermediate aversions. Experiment 3 then examined the aversive effects of nicotine (0.8 mg/kg) and ethanol (1.0 g/kg) alone and in combination. Additionally, nicotine's effects on blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) and ethanol-induced hypothermia were examined. Nicotine and ethanol combined produced aversions significantly greater than those produced by either drug alone or the summed aversive effects of the individual compounds. These effects were unrelated to changes in BAC, but nicotine and ethanol combined produced a prolonged hypothermic effect which may contribute to the increased aversions induced by the combination. These data demonstrate that nicotine may interact with ethanol, increasing ethanol's aversive effects. Although the rewarding effects of concurrently administered nicotine and ethanol were not assessed, these data do indicate that the reported high incidence of nicotine and ethanol co-use is unlikely due to reductions in the aversiveness of ethanol with concurrently administered nicotine. It is more likely attributable to nicotine-related changes in ethanol's rewarding effects.

  16. The effects of cocaine, alcohol and cocaine/alcohol combinations in conditioned taste aversion learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busse, Gregory D; Verendeev, Andrey; Jones, Jermaine; Riley, Anthony L

    2005-09-01

    We have recently reported that alcohol attenuates cocaine place preferences. Although the basis for this effect is unknown, alcohol may attenuate cocaine reward by potentiating its aversive effects. To examine this possibility, these experiments assessed the effects of alcohol on cocaine-induced taste aversions under conditions similar to those that resulted in attenuated place preferences. Specifically, Experiments 1 and 2 assessed the effects of alcohol (0.5 g/kg) on taste aversions induced by 20, 30 and 40 mg/kg cocaine. Experiment 3 examined the role of intertrial interval in the effects of alcohol (0.5 g/kg) on cocaine (30 mg/kg) taste aversions. In Experiments 1 and 2, cocaine was effective at conditioning aversions. Alcohol produced no measurable effect. Combining cocaine and alcohol produced no greater aversion than cocaine alone (and, in fact, weakened aversions at the lowest dose of cocaine). In Experiment 3, varying the intertrial interval from 3 days (as in the case of Experiments 1 and 2) to 1 day (a procedure identical to that in which alcohol attenuated cocaine place preferences) resulted in significant alcohol- and cocaine-induced taste aversions. Nonetheless, alcohol remained ineffective in potentiating cocaine aversions. Thus, under these conditions alcohol does not potentiate cocaine's aversiveness. These results were discussed in terms of their implication for the effects of alcohol on cocaine-induced place preferences. Further, the effects of alcohol on place preferences conditioned by cocaine were discussed in relation to other assessments of the effects of alcohol on the affective properties of cocaine and the implications of these interactions for alcohol and cocaine co-use.

  17. Exploitation, Violence, and Suicide Risk Among Child and Adolescent Survivors of Human Trafficking in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Ligia; Yun, Katherine; Pocock, Nicola; Zimmerman, Cathy

    2015-09-01

    Human trafficking and exploitation of children have profound health consequences. To our knowledge, this study represents the largest survey on the health of child and adolescent survivors of human trafficking. To describe experiences of abuse and exploitation, mental health outcomes, and suicidal behavior among children and adolescents in posttrafficking services. We also examine how exposures to violence, exploitation, and abuse affect the mental health and suicidal behavior of trafficked children. A survey was conducted with 387 children and adolescents aged 10 to 17 years in posttrafficking services in Cambodia, Thailand, or Vietnam, which along with Laos, Myanmar, and Yunnan Province, China, compose the Greater Mekong Subregion. Participants were interviewed within 2 weeks of entering services from October 2011 through May 2013. Depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, suicidal ideation, self-injury, and suicide attempts. Among the 387 children and adolescent study participants, most (82%) were female. Twelve percent had tried to harm or kill themselves in the month before the interview. Fifty-six percent screened positive for depression, 33% for an anxiety disorder, and 26% for posttraumatic stress disorder. Abuse at home was reported by 20%. Physical violence while trafficked was reported by 41% of boys and 19% of girls. Twenty-three percent of girls and 1 boy reported sexual violence. Mental health symptoms were strongly associated with recent self-harm and suicide attempts. Severe physical violence was associated with depression (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 3.55; 95% CI, 1.64-7.71), anxiety (AOR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.12-4.05), and suicidal ideation (AOR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.77-7.67). Sexual violence while trafficked was associated with depression (AOR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.22-4.23) and suicidal ideation (AOR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.80-6.54). Children and adolescents in posttrafficking care showed high symptom levels of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress

  18. Eliciting and Measuring Betrayal Aversion using the BDM Mechanism*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quercia, Simone

    2016-01-01

    Betrayal aversion has been operationalized as the evidence that subjects demand a higher risk premium to take social risks compared to natural risks. This evidence has been first shown by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) using an adaptation of the Becker – DeGroot – Marschak mechanism (BDM, Becker et al. (1964)). We compare their implementation of the BDM mechanism with a new version designed to facilitate subjects’ comprehension. We find that, although the two versions produce different distributions of values, the size of betrayal aversion, measured as an average treatment difference between social and natural risk settings, is not different across the two versions. We further show that our implementation is preferable to use in practice as it reduces substantially subjects’ mistakes and the likelihood of noisy valuations. PMID:27366658

  19. Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (I): A citizen-science based risk model for bovine brucellosis transmission from elk to cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffman, Mandy; Peck, Dannele; Scurlock, Brandon; Logan, Jim; Robinson, Timothy; Cook, Walt; Boroff, Kari; Schumaker, Brant

    2016-09-15

    Livestock producers and state wildlife agencies have used multiple management strategies to control bovine brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). However, spillover from elk to domestic bison and cattle herds continues to occur. Although knowledge is increasing about the location and behavior of elk in the SGYA, predicting spatiotemporal overlap between elk and cattle requires locations of livestock operations and observations of elk contact by producers. We queried all producers in a three-county area using a questionnaire designed to determine location of cattle and whether producers saw elk comingle with their animals. This information was used to parameterize a spatially-explicit risk model to estimate the number of elk expected to overlap with cattle during the brucellosis transmission risk period. Elk-cattle overlap was predicted in areas further from roads and forest boundaries in areas with wolf activity, with higher slopes, lower hunter densities, and where the cost-distance to feedgrounds was very low or very high. The model was used to estimate the expected number of years until a cattle reactor will be detected, under alternative management strategies. The model predicted cattle cases every 4.28 years in the highest risk herd unit, a higher prediction than the one case in 26 years we have observed. This difference likely indicates that ongoing management strategies are at least somewhat effective in preventing potential elk-cattle brucellosis transmission in these areas. Using this model, we can infer the expected effectiveness of various management strategies for reducing the risk of brucellosis spillover from elk to cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Health risk assessment of pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls contaminations in dairy products from selected farms in Greater Accra Region - Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amoako, D.

    2013-07-01

    The residual concentrations of synthetic chemicals such as organochlorines pesticides (OCPs), pyrethroids and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in dairy products (milk, yoghurt, cheese) from selected farms in Greater Accra were analyzed using Gas Chromatography (GC). A total of 50 samples of dairy products (9 cheese, 25 cow milk and 16 yogourt) were analyzed for OCPs, prethroids and PCBs. Of the numerious pesticides evaluated, detectable levels of OCPs (β-HCH, endrin, heptachlor, endosulfan, p ' p-DDT and methoxchlor); synthetic prethroids (permathrin, allethrin, cypermethrin and deltamethrin) and PCBs (18, 28, 52, 101, 153, 138, and 180) were found in all the dairy product samples analysed. Milk samples were found to be the most contaminated with respect to the OCPs and the levels ranged between 0.0001µg/ml and 0.0407µg/ml. ß-HCH was the highest OCP with concentration of 0.0407µg/ml while cyfluthrin was the highest synthetic prethroids recorded in yoghurt sample (0.0318µg/ml). The highest PCB 18 (2,2,5-Trichlorobiphenyl) recorded (0.2668µg/ml) in yoghurt samples. (Data obtained from the field survey regarding safe use of pesticides, toxicity awareness and symptoms among farmers indicated that a very high proportion of animal farmers were at a high risk of pesticide poisoning from occupational exposure. More than 70% of farm workers did not practise safety precaution during pesticide mixing and application leading to considerable prevalence of pesticide related illness including nausea, vomiting, blurred vision, abdominal cramps, dizziness, diarrhoea and headaches in this agricultural community. The presence of pesticide residues in dairy products was of further concern because milk is the main protein diet for infants. The estimated dose for γ-chlordane(8.5x10 5 µ/ml), endrin(0.0114 µg/ml) p ' p ' -DDT(8.5x10 5 µg/ml), DDE(8.5x10 5 µg/ml),heptachlor(2.5x10 5 µg/ml), dieldrin(6.8x10 5 µg/ml) do not pose a direct hazard to human health, although present

  1. How Much Is that Exam Grade Really Worth? An Estimation of Student Risk Aversion to Their Unknown Final College Course Grades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalley, Lanier; McKenzie, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    This study created an experimental design with which students can empirically assess their risk behavior with respect to exam grades within an expected utility framework. Specifically, the authors analyzed students' risk preferences associated with taking exams and earning a "risky" unknown grade versus not taking exams and instead…

  2. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  3. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  4. Polygenic Risk Score Identifies Subgroup With Higher Burden of Atherosclerosis and Greater Relative Benefit From Statin Therapy in the Primary Prevention Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, Pradeep; Young, Robin; Stitziel, Nathan O; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Baber, Usman; Mehran, Roxana; Sartori, Samantha; Fuster, Valentin; Reilly, Dermot F; Butterworth, Adam; Rader, Daniel J; Ford, Ian; Sattar, Naveed; Kathiresan, Sekar

    2017-05-30

    Relative risk reduction with statin therapy has been consistent across nearly all subgroups studied to date. However, in analyses of 2 randomized controlled primary prevention trials (ASCOT [Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid-Lowering Arm] and JUPITER [Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin]), statin therapy led to a greater relative risk reduction among a subgroup at high genetic risk. Here, we aimed to confirm this observation in a third primary prevention randomized controlled trial. In addition, we assessed whether those at high genetic risk had a greater burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. We studied participants from a randomized controlled trial of primary prevention with statin therapy (WOSCOPS [West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study]; n=4910) and 2 observational cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults] and BioImage; n=1154 and 4392, respectively). For each participant, we calculated a polygenic risk score derived from up to 57 common DNA sequence variants previously associated with coronary heart disease. We compared the relative efficacy of statin therapy in those at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic risk score) versus all others (WOSCOPS), as well as the association between the polygenic risk score and coronary artery calcification (CARDIA) and carotid artery plaque burden (BioImage). Among WOSCOPS trial participants at high genetic risk, statin therapy was associated with a relative risk reduction of 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-60; P statin therapy was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.0-5.1) among those in the high genetic risk group and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.6-1.9) in all others. Each 1-SD increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.32-fold (95% CI, 1.04-1.68) greater likelihood of having coronary artery calcification and 9.7% higher (95% CI, 2.2-17.8) burden of carotid plaque. Those at high genetic risk have a greater

  5. Does ambiguity aversion influence the framing effect during decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmont, Anaïs; Cassotti, Mathieu; Agogué, Marine; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

    2015-04-01

    Decision-makers present a systematic tendency to avoid ambiguous options for which the level of risk is unknown. This ambiguity aversion is one of the most striking decision-making biases. Given that human choices strongly depend on the options' presentation, the purpose of the present study was to examine whether ambiguity aversion influences the framing effect during decision making. We designed a new financial decision-making task involving the manipulation of both frame and uncertainty levels. Thirty-seven participants had to choose between a sure option and a gamble depicting either clear or ambiguous probabilities. The results revealed a clear preference for the sure option in the ambiguity condition regardless of frame. However, participants presented a framing effect in both the risk and ambiguity conditions. Indeed, the framing effect was bidirectional in the risk condition and unidirectional in the ambiguity condition given that it did not involve preference reversal but only a more extreme choice tendency.

  6. 21 CFR 50.53 - Clinical investigations involving greater than minimal risk and no prospect of direct benefit to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... minimal risk and no prospect of direct benefit to individual subjects, but likely to yield generalizable... minimal risk and no prospect of direct benefit to individual subjects, but likely to yield generalizable... intervention or procedure that does not hold out the prospect of direct benefit for the individual subject, or...

  7. 34 CFR 97.406 - Research involving greater than minimal risk and no prospect of direct benefit to individual...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... subject, or by a monitoring procedure which is not likely to contribute to the well-being of the subject, only if the IRB finds that— (a) The risk represents a minor increase over minimal risk; (b) The... Education PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS Additional ED Protections for Children Who Are Subjects in Research...

  8. Are Teams Less Inequality Averse than Individuals?

    OpenAIRE

    He, Haoran; Villeval, Marie Claire

    2014-01-01

    We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in team decision-making becau...

  9. Alcohol-Aversion Therapy: Relation Between Strength of Aversion and Abstinence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Dale S.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Assessed degree of alcohol aversion in 60 alcoholics who received emetic alcohol-aversion therapy. Results revealed changes in response to alcoholic, but not to nonalcoholic, flavors, including decreased consumption in taste tests, more negative flavor ratings, overt behavioral indicants of aversion and increased tachycardiac response. (Author/NB)

  10. 45 CFR 46.406 - Research involving greater than minimal risk and no prospect of direct benefit to individual...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... to the well-being of the subject, only if the IRB finds that: (a) The risk represents a minor... HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS Additional Protections for Children...

  11. Playing it safe but losing anyway-Serotonergic signaling of negative outcomes in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex in the context of risk-aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macoveanu, Julian; Rowe, James B; Hornboll, Bettina

    2013-01-01

    and the response to a negative outcome. Using pharmacological fMRI, we manipulated the availability of serotonin in healthy volunteers while performing a gambling task. The same group of participants was studied in three fMRI sessions: (i) during intravenous administration of the SSRI citalopram to increase...... and citalopram decreased the neural response to negative outcomes in dmPFC. Conversely, ATD decreased and citalopram increased the neural response to negative outcomes in left amygdala. Critically, these pharmacological effects were restricted to negative outcomes that were caused by low-risk decisions and led...

  12. 45 CFR 46.405 - Research involving greater than minimal risk but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... presenting the prospect of direct benefit to the individual subjects. 46.405 Section 46.405 Public Welfare... risk but presenting the prospect of direct benefit to the individual subjects. HHS will conduct or fund... procedure that holds out the prospect of direct benefit for the individual subject, or by a monitoring...

  13. Loop diuretics are associated with greater risk of sarcopenia in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Seiko; Naito, Shotaro; Iimori, Soichiro; Takahashi, Daiei; Zeniya, Moko; Sato, Hidehiko; Nomura, Naohiro; Sohara, Eisei; Okado, Tomokazu; Uchida, Shinichi; Rai, Tatemitsu

    2018-01-01

    Sarcopenia, the age-related loss of muscle mass and function, frequently accompanies chronic kidney disease. The aim of this study was to clarify the prevalence and the risk factors for sarcopenia among patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD), focusing on the use of drugs. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis on a cohort of 260 patients with NDD-CKD in a university hospital, recruited between June 2016 and March 2017. We extracted data on patient gender, age, cause of chronic kidney disease, use of drugs, and comorbidities that could potentially affect the prevalence of sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was diagnosed using the criteria of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the association of each factor on the prevalence of sarcopenia. 25.0% of our study subjects had sarcopenia. Multivariable analysis revealed that an increased risk of sarcopenia was significantly associated with age, male gender, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and loop diuretic use (odds ratio, 4.59: 95% confidence interval, 1.81-11.61: P-value 0.001). In our cohort, the prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with NDD-CKD was high, and diuretics use, particularly loop diuretic use, was suggested to be a risk factor of sarcopenia. Although loop diuretics are commonly used in patients with CKD, careful consideration of the risk of sarcopenia may be necessary.

  14. Fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Yahao; Wang Xiaotian; Wu Min

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new fractional-order value function which generalizes the value function of Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323], and give the corresponding fractional-moment versions of CAPM in the cases of both the prospect theory [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323] and the expected utility model. The models that we obtain can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be asymmetric stable Levy distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. In particular, from the prospect theory we get the following fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion: E(R i -R 0 )=(E[(W-W 0 ) + -0.12 (R i -R 0 )]+2.25E[(W 0 -W) + -0.12 (R i -R 0 )])/ (E[(W-W 0 ) + -0.12 (W-R 0 )]+2.25E[(W 0 -W) + -0.12 (W-R 0 )]) .E(W-R 0 ), where W 0 is a fixed reference point distinguishing between losses and gains.

  15. To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Michał Krawczyk

    2011-01-01

    This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss aversion predicts that less risk will be taken (less questions will be answered) when losses are possible but in fact, no treatment effect was observed.

  16. Inequality Aversion and Voting on Redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Höchtl, Wolfgang; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    of income classes. We experimentally study voting on redistribution between two income classes and show that the effect of inequality aversion is asymmetric. Inequality aversion is more likely to matter if the “rich” are in majority. With a “poor” majority, we find that redistribution outcomes look...

  17. Inequality aversion and voting on redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Höchtl, Wolfgang; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2012-01-01

    of income classes. We experimentally study voting on redistribution between two income classes and show that the effect of inequality aversion is asymmetric. Inequality aversion is more likely to matter if the “rich” are in majority. With a “poor” majority, we find that redistribution outcomes look...

  18. An Aversion-Desensitization Treatment for Alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primo, Richard V.; And Others

    1972-01-01

    A six-to nine-month interview follow-up showed that five of the seven traceable Ss given the interpersonal aversion-systematic desensitization treatment had been abstinent, compared with only one of seven treated by the interpersonal aversion-control procedure. (Author)

  19. Role of prostate dose escalation in patients with greater than 15% risk of pelvic lymph node involvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, Rojymon; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Movsas, Benjamin; Uzzo, Robert G.; Pollack, Alan

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the radiation dose is a determinant of clinical outcome in patients with a lymph node risk of >15% treated using whole pelvic (WP), partial pelvic (PP), or prostate only (PO) fields. Methods and materials: A total of 420 patients with prostate cancer treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy with or without short-term androgen deprivation (STAD) between June 1989 and July 2000 were included in this study. Patients had an initial pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level of 15% in the patient population studied. These data suggest that the primary tumor takes precedence over lymph node coverage or the use of STAD. Doses >70 Gy are of paramount importance in such intermediate- and high-risk patients

  20. Pathological Outcome following Radical Prostatectomy in Men with Prostate Specific Antigen Greater than 10 ng/ml and Histologically Favorable Risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jiwoong; Kwon, Young Suk; Kim, Sinae; Han, Christopher Sejong; Farber, Nicholas; Kim, Jongmyung; Byun, Seok Soo; Kim, Wun-Jae; Jeon, Seong Soo; Kim, Isaac Yi

    2016-05-01

    Active surveillance is now the treatment of choice in men with low risk prostate cancer. Although there is no consensus on which patients are eligible for active surveillance, prostate specific antigen above 10 ng/ml is generally excluded. In an attempt to determine the validity of using a prostate specific antigen cutoff of 10 ng/ml to counsel men considering active surveillance we analyzed a multi-institution database to determine the pathological outcome in men with prostate specific antigen greater than 10 ng/ml but histologically favorable risk prostate cancer. We queried a prospectively maintained database of men with histologically favorable risk prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy between 2003 and 2015. The cohort was categorized into 3 groups based on prostate specific antigen level, including low-less than 10 ng/ml, intermediate-10 or greater to less than 20 and high-20 or greater. Associations of prostate specific antigen group with adverse pathological and oncologic outcomes were analyzed. Of 2,125 patients 1,327 were categorized with histologically favorable risk disease. However on multivariate analyses the rates of up staging and upgrading were similar between the intermediate and low prostate specific antigen groups. In contrast compared to the intermediate prostate specific antigen group the high group had higher incidences of up staging (p = 0.02) and upgrading to 4 + 3 or greater disease (p = 0.046). Biochemical recurrence-free survival rates revealed no pairwise intergroup differences except between the low and high groups. Patients with preoperatively elevated prostate specific antigen between 10 and less than 20 ng/ml who otherwise had histologically favorable risk prostate cancer were not at higher risk for adverse pathological outcomes than men with prostate specific antigen less than 10 ng/ml. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Decision-Making in Suicidal Behavior: The Protective Role of Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadlaczky, Gergö; Hökby, Sebastian; Mkrtchian, Anahit; Wasserman, Danuta; Balazs, Judit; Machín, Núria; Sarchiapone, Marco; Sisask, Merike; Carli, Vladimir

    2018-01-01

    Loss aversion is a central and well operationalized trait behavior that describes the tendency for humans to strongly prefer avoiding losses to making equivalent gains. Human decision-making is thus biased toward safer choices. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between loss aversion and suicidal behavior in a large cohort of adolescents recruited in 30 schools of seven European countries for a longitudinal study (Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65120704). We hypothesized that individuals with higher loss aversion would be less likely to attempt suicide. A mixed monetary gamble task was used to generate loss aversion scores for each participant. Logistic regression was used to estimate the cross-sectional association between loss aversion and life-time suicide attempts in the baseline sample ( N  = 2,158; 156 attempters), and incident attempts were predicted in a 4-month prospective model ( N  = 1,763; 75 attempters). Multiple regression was used to estimate the association between loss aversion and suicidal ideation. Loss aversion was a significant predictor of attempted suicide in both the cross-sectional (OR = 0.79; P  = 0.005) and prospective analysis (OR = 0.81; P  = 0.040), adjusting for depression, anxiety, stress, and sex. The correlation between pre and post measures of loss aversion was r  = 0.52 ( P  loss aversion was not (cross-sectional model: P  = 0.092; Prospective model: P  = 0.390). This suggests that the concept of loss aversion may be useful in understanding the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts. This and previous studies suggest that altered decision-making is involved in suicide attempts. In our study, we show the involvement of loss aversion in particular, and propose that individuals high in loss aversion are discouraged from carrying out the suicide attempt because of a greater focus on the negative consequences of the decision.

  2. National evaluation of the benefits and risks of greater structuring and coding of the electronic health record: exploratory qualitative investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Zoe; Fernando, Bernard; Kalra, Dipak; Cresswell, Kathrin; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to explore stakeholder views, attitudes, needs, and expectations regarding likely benefits and risks resulting from increased structuring and coding of clinical information within electronic health records (EHRs). Qualitative investigation in primary and secondary care and research settings throughout the UK. Data were derived from interviews, expert discussion groups, observations, and relevant documents. Participants (n=70) included patients, healthcare professionals, health service commissioners, policy makers, managers, administrators, systems developers, researchers, and academics. Four main themes arose from our data: variations in documentation practice; patient care benefits; secondary uses of information; and informing and involving patients. We observed a lack of guidelines, co-ordination, and dissemination of best practice relating to the design and use of information structures. While we identified immediate benefits for direct care and secondary analysis, many healthcare professionals did not see the relevance of structured and/or coded data to clinical practice. The potential for structured information to increase patient understanding of their diagnosis and treatment contrasted with concerns regarding the appropriateness of coded information for patients. The design and development of EHRs requires the capture of narrative information to reflect patient/clinician communication and computable data for administration and research purposes. Increased structuring and/or coding of EHRs therefore offers both benefits and risks. Documentation standards within clinical guidelines are likely to encourage comprehensive, accurate processing of data. As data structures may impact upon clinician/patient interactions, new models of documentation may be necessary if EHRs are to be read and authored by patients.

  3. Health-damaging policing practices among persons who inject drugs in Mexico: Are deported migrants at greater risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinedo, Miguel; Beletsky, Leo; Alamillo, Nathan; Ojeda, Victoria D

    2017-08-01

    Evidence-based public health and criminal justice policies aimed at addressing the structurally vulnerable population of persons who inject drugs (PWID) and who are involved in the immigrant enforcement and deportation system are lacking. Policing practices are critical structural determinants of HIV among PWID. PWID in Mexico who have been deported from the US are at elevated risk of HIV. From 2011 to 2013, 733 PWID were recruited to complete structured questionnaires, including past 6-month experiences with police. Eligible PWID were 18 years or older, had injected in the past month, and resided in Tijuana, Mexico with no intentions of moving. To determine if deportation status was associated with experiences of arrests and problematic policing practices, we conducted separate multivariate logistic regression models for independent policing variables. In multivariate analyses, deportation status was independently associated with higher odds of being arrested (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.45; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02-2.05), being asked for a bribe (AOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.05-2.04), and being forced to leave a place of residence (AOR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.08-3.70) in the past 6 months. Results highlight a previously poorly understood elements of the US-deportation experience: migrants' experiences with law enforcement post-deportation and the role of deportation policies and practices as structural drivers of public health risk in destination countries. We provide policy recommendations for Mexico and the US based on our findings, which have potential application in other countries seeking to improve enforcement and related policing practices from a public health perspective. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Elevated resting heart rate is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in current and former smokers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Magnus T; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    . Current and former smokers had, irrespective of tobacco consumption, greater relative risk of elevated RHR compared to never smokers. The relative risk of all-cause mortality per 10bpm increase in RHR was (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01-1.10) in never smokers, 1.11 (1.07-1.15) in former smokers, 1.13 (1......BACKGROUND: Elevated resting heart rate is associated with mortality in general populations. Smokers may be at particular risk. The association between resting heart rate (RHR), smoking status and cardiovascular and total mortality was investigated in a general population. METHODS: Prospective.......09-1.16) in moderate smokers, and 1.13 (1.10-1.16) in heavy smokers. There was no gender difference. The risk estimates for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were essentially similar. In univariate analyses, the difference in survival between a RHR in the highest (>80bpm) vs lowest quartile (...

  5. Elevated resting heart rate is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in current and former smokers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Magnus T; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Elevated resting heart rate is associated with mortality in general populations. Smokers may be at particular risk. The association between resting heart rate (RHR), smoking status and cardiovascular and total mortality was investigated in a general population. METHODS: Prospective....... Current and former smokers had, irrespective of tobacco consumption, greater relative risk of elevated RHR compared to never smokers. The relative risk of all-cause mortality per 10bpm increase in RHR was (95% CI): 1.06 (1.01-1.10) in never smokers, 1.11 (1.07-1.15) in former smokers, 1.13 (1.......09-1.16) in moderate smokers, and 1.13 (1.10-1.16) in heavy smokers. There was no gender difference. The risk estimates for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were essentially similar. In univariate analyses, the difference in survival between a RHR in the highest (>80bpm) vs lowest quartile (...

  6. Labour Trafficking among Men and Boys in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Exploitation, Violence, Occupational Health Risks and Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pocock, Nicola S.; Kiss, Ligia; Oram, Sian; Zimmerman, Cathy

    2016-01-01

    Background Men comprise nearly two-thirds of trafficked and forced labourers in common low-skilled labour sectors including fishing, agriculture and factory work. Yet, most evidence on human trafficking has focused on women and girls trafficked for sex work, with scant research on trafficked men and boys. Methods We analyse survey data from the largest systematic consecutive sample of trafficked people collected to date to describe the prevalence of violence, occupational health risks and injuries and associated factors. Participants were labour-trafficked men and boys using post-trafficking support services in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Findings Data are presented on 446 males aged 10–58. Men and boys were mainly trafficked for fishing (61.7%), manufacturing (19.1%) and begging (5.2%). Fishermen worked extensive hours (mean 18.8 hours/day, SD 5.9) and factory workers worked on average 11.9 hours/day (SD 2.9). 35.5% of male survivors had been injured while trafficked; 29.4% received no personal protective equipment (e.g. gloves). The most commonly reported injuries among all males were deep cuts (61.8%) and skin injuries (36.7%), injuries for which fewer than one-quarter reported receiving medical care. Six fishermen lost body parts, none of whom received medical care. Most males (80.5%) had no or very few rest breaks. One-third (37.8%) experienced severe violence. Work-related injuries were associated with severe violence (AOR 3.44, CI:1.63–7.26), being in the fishing sector, (AOR 4.12, CI:2.39–7.09) and threats (AOR 2.77, CI:1.62–4.75). Experiencing any violence was associated with threats (AOR 26.86, CI:14.0–51.23), being in the fishing sector (AOR 18.53, CI:8.74–39.28) and fluency in language of destination country (AOR 0.39, CI:0.20–0.75). Conclusion This study highlights the abuse and extreme occupational hazards suffered by trafficked men and boys. Occupational health and safety interventions are urgently needed to protect male migrant

  7. Labour Trafficking among Men and Boys in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Exploitation, Violence, Occupational Health Risks and Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pocock, Nicola S; Kiss, Ligia; Oram, Sian; Zimmerman, Cathy

    2016-01-01

    Men comprise nearly two-thirds of trafficked and forced labourers in common low-skilled labour sectors including fishing, agriculture and factory work. Yet, most evidence on human trafficking has focused on women and girls trafficked for sex work, with scant research on trafficked men and boys. We analyse survey data from the largest systematic consecutive sample of trafficked people collected to date to describe the prevalence of violence, occupational health risks and injuries and associated factors. Participants were labour-trafficked men and boys using post-trafficking support services in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Data are presented on 446 males aged 10-58. Men and boys were mainly trafficked for fishing (61.7%), manufacturing (19.1%) and begging (5.2%). Fishermen worked extensive hours (mean 18.8 hours/day, SD 5.9) and factory workers worked on average 11.9 hours/day (SD 2.9). 35.5% of male survivors had been injured while trafficked; 29.4% received no personal protective equipment (e.g. gloves). The most commonly reported injuries among all males were deep cuts (61.8%) and skin injuries (36.7%), injuries for which fewer than one-quarter reported receiving medical care. Six fishermen lost body parts, none of whom received medical care. Most males (80.5%) had no or very few rest breaks. One-third (37.8%) experienced severe violence. Work-related injuries were associated with severe violence (AOR 3.44, CI:1.63-7.26), being in the fishing sector, (AOR 4.12, CI:2.39-7.09) and threats (AOR 2.77, CI:1.62-4.75). Experiencing any violence was associated with threats (AOR 26.86, CI:14.0-51.23), being in the fishing sector (AOR 18.53, CI:8.74-39.28) and fluency in language of destination country (AOR 0.39, CI:0.20-0.75). This study highlights the abuse and extreme occupational hazards suffered by trafficked men and boys. Occupational health and safety interventions are urgently needed to protect male migrant labourers working in high-risk sectors, particularly

  8. Determinants of Propranolol's Selective Effect on Loss Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F; Tobe, Russell H; Camerer, Colin F; Leventhal, Bennett L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-07-01

    Research on emotion and decision making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions, but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. We used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk attitudes, and choice consistency to risky decision making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention's pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e., as a function of initial loss aversion and body mass index), and did not affect risk attitudes or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of emotion and risky decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Determinants of propranolol’s selective effect on loss aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F.; Tobe, Russell H.; Camerer, Colin F.; Leventhal, Bennett L.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Research on emotion and decision-making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions (e.g., Bechara et al., 1997), but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. Here, we used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk sensitivity and choice consistency to risky decision-making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention’s pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision-making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e. as a function of initial loss aversion and body-mass index), and did not affect risk sensitivity or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of both emotion and risky decision-making. PMID:26063441

  10. Is greater acculturation associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among Latinos in South Florida?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Aileen; Kenya, Sonjia; Ilangovan, Kumar; Li, Hua; Koru-Sengul, Tulay; Alonzo, Yisel; Carrasquillo, Olveen

    2015-05-01

    To examine the association of acculturation with various cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) among Latinos with diabetes in South Florida. In a cross-sectional analysis of data collected from 300 Latinos with poorly controlled diabetes we measured acculturation using the Marin Short Acculturation Scale. We examined correlations between acculturation and the following 7 CRFs: hemoglobin A1C, low-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, smoking status, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable intake. Cubans made up 38% of our population; no other Latino subgroup represented over 17% of the sample. Of the 8 outcomes examined, only smoking was associated with increased acculturation; 12% of Latinos in the 2 lowest acculturation groups were current smokers versus 25% in the highest acculturation group (P=0.02). Furthermore, Cuban Americans from our sample had over double the prevalence of smoking compared with non-Cubans in both the lowest and highest acculturation groups. With the exception of smoking, our data does not support a link between increased acculturation and higher prevalence of CRFs in Latinos with diabetes. Smoking prevention and cessation programs targeting Latinos and particularly among Cubans are needed.

  11. Environmental fate and ecotoxicological risk of the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole across the Katari catchment (Bolivian Altiplano) : application of the GREAT-ER model

    OpenAIRE

    Archundia, D.; Boithias, Laurie; Duwig, Céline; Morel, M. C.; Aviles, G. F.; Martins, J. M. F.

    2018-01-01

    Antibiotics are emergent contaminants that can induce adverse effects in terrestrial and aquatic organisms. The surface water compartment is of particular concern as it receives direct waste water discharge. Modeling is highlighted as an essential tool to understand the fate and behavior of these compounds and to assess their eco-toxicological risk. This study aims at testing the ability of the GREAT-ER model in simulating sulfamethoxazole (SMX) concentrations in the surface waters of the ari...

  12. Loss aversion is associated with bilateral insula volume. A voxel based morphometry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markett, S; Heeren, G; Montag, C; Weber, B; Reuter, M

    2016-04-21

    Loss aversion is a decision bias, reflecting a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains in a decision situation. Recent neuroscientific research has shown that mesocorticolimbic structures like ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the ventral striatum constitute a bidirectional neural system that processes gains and losses and exhibits a neural basis of loss aversion. On a functional and structural level, the amygdala and insula also seem to play an important role in the processing of loss averse behavior. By applying voxel-based morphometry to structural brain images in N=41 healthy participants, the current study provides further evidence for the relationship of brain structure and loss aversion. The results show a negative correlation of gray matter volume in bilateral posterior insula as well as left medial frontal gyrus with individual loss aversion. Hence, higher loss aversion is associated with lower gray matter volume in these brain areas. Both structures have been discussed to play important roles in the brain's salience network, where the posterior insula is involved in interoception and the detection of salience. The medial frontal gyrus might impact decision making through its dense connections with the anterior cingulate cortex. A possible explanation for the present finding is that structural differences in these regions alter the processing of losses and salience, possibly biasing decision making towards avoidance of negative outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Social influences on inequity aversion in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine McAuliffe

    Full Text Available Adults and children are willing to sacrifice personal gain to avoid both disadvantageous and advantageous inequity. These two forms of inequity aversion follow different developmental trajectories, with disadvantageous inequity aversion emerging around 4 years and advantageous inequity aversion emerging around 8 years. Although inequity aversion is assumed to be specific to situations where resources are distributed among individuals, the role of social context has not been tested in children. Here, we investigated the influence of two aspects of social context on inequity aversion in 4- to 9-year-old children: (1 the role of the experimenter distributing rewards and (2 the presence of a peer with whom rewards could be shared. Experiment 1 showed that children rejected inequity at the same rate, regardless of whether the experimenter had control over reward allocations. This indicates that children's decisions are based upon reward allocations between themselves and a peer and are not attempts to elicit more favorable distributions from the experimenter. Experiment 2 compared rejections of unequal reward allocations in children interacting with or without a peer partner. When faced with a disadvantageous distribution, children frequently rejected a smaller reward when a larger reward was visible, even if no partner would obtain the larger reward. This suggests that nonsocial factors partly explain disadvantageous inequity rejections. However, rejections of disadvantageous distributions were higher when the larger amount would go to a peer, indicating that social context enhances disadvantageous inequity aversion. By contrast, children rejected advantageous distributions almost exclusively in the social context. Therefore, advantageous inequity aversion appears to be genuinely social, highlighting its potential relevance for the development of fairness concerns. By comparing social and nonsocial factors, this study provides a detailed picture of

  14. Pupillometry reveals the physiological underpinnings of the aversion to holes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayzenberg, Vladislav; Hickey, Meghan R; Lourenco, Stella F

    2018-01-01

    An unusual, but common, aversion to images with clusters of holes is known as trypophobia. Recent research suggests that trypophobic reactions are caused by visual spectral properties also present in aversive images of evolutionary threatening animals (e.g., snakes and spiders). However, despite similar spectral properties, it remains unknown whether there is a shared emotional response to holes and threatening animals. Whereas snakes and spiders are known to elicit a fear reaction, associated with the sympathetic nervous system, anecdotal reports from self-described trypophobes suggest reactions more consistent with disgust, which is associated with activation of the parasympathetic nervous system. Here we used pupillometry in a novel attempt to uncover the distinct emotional response associated with a trypophobic response to holes. Across two experiments, images of holes elicited greater constriction compared to images of threatening animals and neutral images. Moreover, this effect held when controlling for level of arousal and accounting for the pupil grating response. This pattern of pupillary response is consistent with involvement of the parasympathetic nervous system and suggests a disgust, not a fear, response to images of holes. Although general aversion may be rooted in shared visual-spectral properties, we propose that the specific emotion is determined by cognitive appraisal of the distinct image content.

  15. Variable use of amiodarone is associated with a greater risk of recurrence of atrial fibrillation in the critically ill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrić, Goran; Udy, Andrew; Bandeshe, Hiran; Clement, Pierre; Boots, Rob

    2016-04-02

    Atrial fibrillation is a common rhythm disturbance in the general medical-surgical intensive care unit. Amiodarone is a popular drug in this setting but evidence to inform clinical practice remains scarce. We aimed to identify whether variation in the clinical use of amiodarone was associated with recurrent atrial fibrillation. This was a retrospective audit of 177 critically ill patients who developed new-onset atrial fibrillation after admission to a tertiary level medical-surgical trauma intensive care unit. Patterns of amiodarone prescription (including dosage schedule and duration) were assessed in relation to recurrence of atrial fibrillation during the intensive care unit stay. Known recurrence risk factors, such as inotrope administration, cardiac disease indices, Charlson Comorbidity Index, magnesium concentrations, fluid balance, and potassium concentrations, were also included in adjusted analysis using forward stepwise logistic regression modelling. The cohort had a median (interquartile range) age of 69 years (60-75), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evalution II score of 22 (17-28) and Charlson Comorbidity Index of 2 (1-4). A bolus dose of amiodarone followed by infusion (P = 0.02), in addition to continuing amiodarone infusion through to discharge from the intensive care unit (P < 0.001), were associated with less recurrent dysrhythmia. Recurrence after successful treatment was associated with ceasing amiodarone while an inotrope infusion continued (P < 0.001), and was more common in patients with a prior history of congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.04), and a diagnosis of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (P = 0.02). Amiodarone should be administered as a bolus dose followed immediately with an infusion when treating atrial fibrillation in the medical-surgical intensive care unit. Consideration should be given to continuing amiodarone infusions in patients on inotropes until they are ceased.

  16. Visual Aversive Learning Compromises Sensory Discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalev, Lee; Paz, Rony; Avidan, Galia

    2018-03-14

    Aversive learning is thought to modulate perceptual thresholds, which can lead to overgeneralization. However, it remains undetermined whether this modulation is domain specific or a general effect. Moreover, despite the unique role of the visual modality in human perception, it is unclear whether this aspect of aversive learning exists in this modality. The current study was designed to examine the effect of visual aversive outcomes on the perception of basic visual and auditory features. We tested the ability of healthy participants, both males and females, to discriminate between neutral stimuli, before and after visual learning. In each experiment, neutral stimuli were associated with aversive images in an experimental group and with neutral images in a control group. Participants demonstrated a deterioration in discrimination (higher discrimination thresholds) only after aversive learning. This deterioration was measured for both auditory (tone frequency) and visual (orientation and contrast) features. The effect was replicated in five different experiments and lasted for at least 24 h. fMRI neural responses and pupil size were also measured during learning. We showed an increase in neural activations in the anterior cingulate cortex, insula, and amygdala during aversive compared with neutral learning. Interestingly, the early visual cortex showed increased brain activity during aversive compared with neutral context trials, with identical visual information. Our findings imply the existence of a central multimodal mechanism, which modulates early perceptual properties, following exposure to negative situations. Such a mechanism could contribute to abnormal responses that underlie anxiety states, even in new and safe environments. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using a visual aversive-learning paradigm, we found deteriorated discrimination abilities for visual and auditory stimuli that were associated with visual aversive stimuli. We showed increased neural

  17. Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Zhixin; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben

    2017-01-01

    There is a significant gender imbalance on financial trading floors. This motivated us to investigate gender differences in financial risk taking under pressure. We used a well-established approach from behavior economics to analyze a series of risky monetary choices by male and female participants with and without time pressure. We also used second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and face width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as correlates of pre-natal exposure to testosterone. We constructed a structural model and estimated the participants' risk attitudes and probability perceptions via maximum likelihood estimation under both expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent utility (RDU) models. In line with existing research, we found that male participants are less risk averse and that the gender gap in risk attitudes increases under moderate time pressure. We found that female participants with lower 2D:4D ratios and higher fWHR are less risk averse in RDU estimates. Males with lower 2D:4D ratios were less risk averse in EU estimations, but more risk averse using RDU estimates. We also observe that men whose ratios indicate a greater prenatal exposure to testosterone exhibit a greater optimism and overestimation of small probabilities of success.

  18. The early warning application role in facing the environmental crisis and disasters: "Preliminarily risk management strategy for the greater city of Cairo"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghoneem Yousef M.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural disasters are inevitable and it is almost impossible to fully recoup the damage caused by the disasters. But it is possible to minimize the potential risk by developing disaster early warning strategies, methods using the new technology applications which play a crucial role in efficient mitigation and management of disasters. This paper describes the importance of the remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS in evolving a suitable strategy for disaster, crises and risk management using these technologies. The main objective of this paper is to make a Preliminary risk management plan (it is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing, treating and monitoring the risks involved in any activity or process. This process helps Administrations to focus on priorities and in decisions on deploying limited resources to deal with the highest risks using the Environmental risk map of the greater city of Cairo demonstrating the most high-risk administrative areas in the city, supported by field evidence and different sources of information. to reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters and other man-made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation. This study has shown that how can the early warning Applications can be useful in analyzing, Integrating and managing different datasets for predicting the environmental crises and disasters that may affect the urbanism inside the city and help in the preparation of the Risk management plan.

  19. Contaminant risks from biosolids land application Contemporary organic contaminant levels in digested sewage sludge from five treatment plants in Greater Vancouver, British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, D.A.; Healey, N.

    2003-01-01

    The risks of organic contaminants in sewage sludges are evaluated. - This study examines the potential for environmental risks due to organic contaminants at sewage sludge application sites, and documents metals and various potential organic contaminants (volatile organics, chlorinated pesticides, PCBs, dioxins/furans, extractable petroleum hydrocarbons, PAHs, phenols, and others) in current production biosolids from five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) within the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD). There has been greater focus in Europe, North America and elsewhere on metals accumulation in biosolids-amended soil than on organic substances, with the exception of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans. Another objective, therefore, was to evaluate the extent to which management of biosolids re-use based on metal/metalloid levels coincidentally minimizes environmental risks from organic contaminants. Historical-use contaminants such as chlorophenols, PCBs, and chlorinated pesticides were not detected at environmentally relevant concentrations in any of the 36 fresh biosolids samples, and appear to have virtually eliminated from sanitary collection system inputs. The few organic contaminants found in freshly produced biosolids samples that exhibited high concentrations relative to British Columbia and Canadian soil quality benchmarks included p-cresol, phenol, phenanthrene, pyrene, naphthalene, and heavy extractable petroleum hydrocarbons (HEPHs-nCl9-C34 effective carbon chain length). It was concluded that, with the exception of these petroleum hydrocarbon constituents or their microbial metabolites, the mixing of biosolids with uncontaminated soils during land application and based on the known metal concentrations in biosolids from the Greater Vancouver WWTPs investigated provides adequate protection against the environmental risks associated with organic substances such as dioxins and furans, phthalate esters, or volatile

  20. Greater sexual risk-taking in female and male recreational MDMA/ecstasy users compared with alcohol drinkers: a questionnaire study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Aimee L; Parrott, Andrew C

    2015-07-01

    Previous studies have shown increased sexual risk-taking in experienced MDMA/ecstasy users. The main objectives of this study were to compare levels of sexual risk-taking between a young student sample of predominantly heterosexual MDMA users and alcohol-drinker controls and investigate potential gender differences. Recreational drug use and sexual risk questionnaires were completed by 20 MDMA users (10 females, 10 males) and 20 non-user controls (10 females, 10 males). They were predominantly university students, aged between 20-22 years, mainly heterosexual (n = 37), with three bisexual participants. MDMA users displayed significantly greater levels of sexual risk-taking than the alcohol-drinker controls. It involved significantly higher rates of casual sex, non-condom use during sex, and penetrative sexual risks. This increase in sexual riskiness occurred to a similar extent in males and females. These findings indicate that both female and male ecstasy/MDMA users reported more risky sexual behaviours, than the non-user controls. Further research into the sexual behaviour and sexual risk-taking of heterosexual MDMA users should be conducted because much of the past literature has focused on homosexual participants. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. The Effect of Wealth Shocks on Loss Aversion: Behavior and Neural Correlates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Chandrasekhar Pammi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Kahneman and Tversky (1979 first demonstrated that when individuals decide whether or not to accept a gamble, potential losses receive more weight than possible gains in the decision. This phenomenon is referred to as loss aversion. We investigated how loss aversion in risky financial decisions is influenced by sudden changes to wealth, employing both behavioral and neurobiological measures. We implemented an fMRI experimental paradigm, based on that employed by Tom et al. (2007. There are two treatments, called RANDOM and CONTINGENT. In RANDOM, the baseline setting, the changes to wealth, referred to as wealth shocks in economics, are independent of the actual choices participants make. Under CONTINGENT, we induce the belief that the changes in income are a consequence of subjects' own decisions. The magnitudes and sequence of the shocks to wealth are identical between the CONTINGENT and RANDOM treatments. We investigated whether more loss aversion existed in one treatment than another. The behavioral results showed significantly greater loss aversion in CONTINGENT compared to RANDOM after a negative wealth shock. No differences were observed in the response to positive shocks. The fMRI results revealed a neural loss aversion network, comprising the bilateral striatum, amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex that was common to the CONTINGENT and RANDOM tasks. However, the ventral prefrontal cortex, primary somatosensory cortex and superior occipital cortex, showed greater activation in response to a negative change in wealth due to individual's own decisions than when the change was exogenous. These results indicate that striatum activation correlates with loss aversion independently of the source of the shock, and that the ventral prefrontal cortex (vPFC codes the experimental manipulation of agency in one's actions influencing loss aversion.

  2. The Effect of Wealth Shocks on Loss Aversion: Behavior and Neural Correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Ruiz, Sergio; Lee, Sangkyun; Noussair, Charles N; Sitaram, Ranganatha

    2017-01-01

    Kahneman and Tversky (1979) first demonstrated that when individuals decide whether or not to accept a gamble, potential losses receive more weight than possible gains in the decision. This phenomenon is referred to as loss aversion. We investigated how loss aversion in risky financial decisions is influenced by sudden changes to wealth, employing both behavioral and neurobiological measures. We implemented an fMRI experimental paradigm, based on that employed by Tom et al. (2007). There are two treatments, called RANDOM and CONTINGENT. In RANDOM, the baseline setting, the changes to wealth, referred to as wealth shocks in economics, are independent of the actual choices participants make. Under CONTINGENT, we induce the belief that the changes in income are a consequence of subjects' own decisions. The magnitudes and sequence of the shocks to wealth are identical between the CONTINGENT and RANDOM treatments. We investigated whether more loss aversion existed in one treatment than another. The behavioral results showed significantly greater loss aversion in CONTINGENT compared to RANDOM after a negative wealth shock. No differences were observed in the response to positive shocks. The fMRI results revealed a neural loss aversion network, comprising the bilateral striatum, amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex that was common to the CONTINGENT and RANDOM tasks. However, the ventral prefrontal cortex, primary somatosensory cortex and superior occipital cortex, showed greater activation in response to a negative change in wealth due to individual's own decisions than when the change was exogenous. These results indicate that striatum activation correlates with loss aversion independently of the source of the shock, and that the ventral prefrontal cortex (vPFC) codes the experimental manipulation of agency in one's actions influencing loss aversion.

  3. Fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Yahao [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Wang Xiaotian [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)], E-mail: swa001@126.com; Wu Min [Dep. of Math., South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)

    2009-11-15

    In this paper, we present a new fractional-order value function which generalizes the value function of Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323], and give the corresponding fractional-moment versions of CAPM in the cases of both the prospect theory [Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979;47:263-91; Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J. Risk Uncertainty 1992;4:297-323] and the expected utility model. The models that we obtain can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be asymmetric stable Levy distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. In particular, from the prospect theory we get the following fractional-moment CAPM with loss aversion: E(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})=(E[(W-W{sub 0}){sub +}{sup -0.12}(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})]+2.25E[(W{sub 0}-W){sub +}{sup -0.12}(R{sub i}-R{sub 0})])/ (E[(W-W{sub 0}){sub +}{sup -0.12} (W-R{sub 0})]+2.25E[(W{sub 0}-W){sub +}{sup -0.12}(W-R{sub 0})]) .E(W-R{sub 0}), where W{sub 0} is a fixed reference point distinguishing between losses and gains.

  4. Expressing negative emotions to children: Mothers' aversion sensitivity and children's adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moed, Anat; Dix, Theodore; Anderson, Edward R; Greene, Shannon M

    2017-03-01

    Research is unclear about when expressing negative emotions to children performs valuable socialization and regulatory functions and when, instead, it undermines children's adjustment. In this study, we isolated 1 kind of negative expression to test the aversion sensitivity hypothesis: that rapid increases in mothers' negativity as a function of increases in the aversiveness of children's behavior are uniquely problematic for children. During multiple assessments of a divorcing sample over 2 years (N = 284), 12-min interactions between mothers and their 4- to 11-year-old children were recorded. Forty-seven observed child behaviors were ranked from low to high aversive. Within-dyad changes demonstrated that mothers' general negativity-their tendency to express negative emotion at high rates-was unrelated to children's adjustment. In contrast, mothers' aversion-focused negativity-their tendency to increase negative emotional expression rapidly as the aversiveness of children's behavior increased-predicted children's poor social competence, poor emotion regulation, and externalizing behavior problems at the next assessment. The findings suggest that negative expression that reflects mothers' affective sensitivity to aversive child behavior may promote interaction patterns and adaptations in children that are particularly likely to place children at risk for adjustment problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Aversive smell associations shape social judgment

    OpenAIRE

    Homan, Philipp; Ely, Benjamin A.; Yuan, May; Brosch, Tobias; Ng, John; Trope, Yaacov; Schiller, Daniela

    2017-01-01

    Once associating another person with an unpleasant smell, how do we perceive and judge this person from that moment on? Here, we used aversive olfactory conditioning followed by a social attribution task during functional magnetic resonance imaging to address this question. After conditioning, where one of two faces was repeatedly paired with an aversive smell, the participants reported negative affect when viewing the smell-conditioned but not the neutral face. When subsequently confronted w...

  6. A Greater Extent of Insomnia Symptoms and Physician-Recommended Sleep Medication Use Predict Fall Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tuo-Yu; Lee, Soomi; Buxton, Orfeu M

    2017-11-01

    Cross-sectional studies suggest that insomnia symptoms are associated with falls in later life. This longitudinal study examines the independent and interactive effects of the extent of insomnia symptoms (i.e., multiple co-existing insomnia symptoms) and sleep medications on fall risk over a 2-year follow-up among community-dwelling older adults. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2014, N = 6882, Mage = 74.5 years ± 6.6 years), we calculated the extent of insomnia symptoms (range = 0-4) participants reported (i.e., trouble falling asleep, waking up during the night, waking up too early, and not feeling rested). At each wave, participants reported recent sleep medications use and falls since the last wave, and were evaluated for balance and walking speed. A greater burden of insomnia symptoms and using physician-recommended sleep medications at baseline independently predicted falling after adjusting for known risk factors of falling. The effects of insomnia symptoms on fall risk differed by sleep medications use. The extent of insomnia symptoms exhibited a positive, dose-response relation with risk of falling among those not using sleep medications. Older adults using physician-recommended sleep medications exhibited a consistently higher fall risk irrespective of the extent of insomnia symptoms. The number of insomnia symptoms predicts 2-year fall risk in older adults. Taking physician-recommended sleep medications increases the risks for falling in older adults, irrespective of the presence of insomnia symptoms. Future efforts should be directed toward treating insomnia symptoms, and managing and selecting sleep medications effectively to decrease the risk of falling in older adults. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Ecological Risk Assessment of Metal Pollution along Greater Cairo Sector of the River Nile, Egypt, Using Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, as Bioindicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wael A. Omar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work aims to evaluate seasonal metal pollution along Greater Cairo sector of the River Nile, Egypt, using wild Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, as bioindicator and to conduct a risk assessment for human consumers. Greater Cairo is the largest populated area along the whole course of River Nile with a wide range of anthropogenic activities. Effects of metal pollution on fish body indices were studied using condition factor (CF and scaled mass index (SMI. Metal pollution index (MPI showed that the total metal load in fish organs followed the follwoing order: kidney > liver > gill > muscle which gives a better idea about the target organs for metal accumulation. Metal concentrations in fish muscle (edible tissue showed the following arrangement: Fe > Zn > Cu > Mn > Pb > Cd. Metal’s bioaccumulation factor (BAF in fish muscle showed the following arrangement: Zn > Cu > Fe > Mn > Cd and Pb. The hazard index (HI as an indicator of human health risks associated with fish consumption showed that adverse health effects are not expected to occur in most cases. However, the metals’ cumulative risk effects gave an alarming sign specifically at high fish consumption rates.

  8. Ambiguity and risk measures in the lab and students’ real-life borrowing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fairley, Kim; Weitzel, Utz

    This study analyzes the external validity of experimentally elicited ambiguity aversion, likelihood insensitivity and risk aversion on real-life decision-making in the field of student loans. Our main finding is that ambiguity aversion, likelihood insensitivity and risk aversion are not related to

  9. Greater early and mid-pregnancy gestational weight gain are associated with increased risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Chunrong; Li, Xiating; Chen, Renjuan; Zhou, Xuezhen; Liu, Chaoqun; Wu, Jiangyue; Xu, Shangzhi; Wang, Weiye; Xiao, Mei; Xiong, Guoping; Wang, Jing; Yang, Xuefeng; Hao, Liping; Yang, Nianhong

    2017-12-01

    Gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with adverse short- and long-term consequences for both the mother and the offspring. To examine the relationship between the rates of gestational weight gain (RGWG) during early and mid-pregnancy and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). 2090 singleton pregnant women from the Tongji Maternal and Child Health Cohort (TMCHC) without overt diabetes before pregnancy were analyzed in our study. Gestational weight were measured regularly in every antenatal visit. Gestational diabetes mellitus was assessed with the 75-g, 2-h oral glucose tolerance test at 24-28 weeks of gestation. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to estimate effect of RGWG on GDM. A total of 8.3% (n = 173) of pregnant women were diagnosed with GDM. Women with elevated rate of gestational weight gain prior to glucose screening test (RGWG-PG) increased the risk of GDM (adjusted p-trend = 0.004; odds ratios (OR) 1.64, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.01-2.68 and OR 2.30,95% CI 1.44-3.66 for 0.297-0.384 kg/wk and 0.385 kg/wk or more vs. 0.213 kg/wk or less, respectively). Women with greater rate of gestational weight gain in the first trimester (RGWG-F) increased the risk of GDM (adjusted p-trend = 0.048; OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.14-2.94 and OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.10-2.83 for 0.086-0.200 kg/wk and 0.201 kg/wk or more vs. -0.025 kg/wk or less, respectively). The rate of gestational weight gain in the second trimester (RGWG-S) was significantly associated with GDM only among women with RGWG-F more than 0.086 kg/wk (adjusted p-trend = 0.035; OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.16-3.59 for 0.658 kg/wk or more vs. 0.418 kg/wk or less). Greater early pregnancy weight gain are associated with increased risk of GDM. Elevated weight gain in mid-pregnancy increased the risk of GDM only among pregnant women with greater weight gain in the first trimester. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All

  10. Greater intake of fruit and vegetables is associated with a lower risk of osteoporotic hip fractures in elderly Chinese: a 1:1 matched case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, H-L; Wu, B-H; Xue, W-Q; He, M-G; Fan, F; Ouyang, W-F; Tu, S-L; Zhu, H-L; Chen, Y-M

    2013-11-01

    In this case-control study, we examined the relationship between the consumption of fruit and vegetables and risk of hip fractures in 646 pairs of incident cases and controls in elderly Chinese. We found that greater consumption of both fruit and vegetables in men and vegetables in women was associated with a lower risk of osteoporotic hip fractures in elderly Chinese. The association between fruit and vegetable consumption and the risk of osteoporotic fractures remains controversial due to limited published evidence. The purpose of this study was to determine whether consuming fruits and vegetables has a protective effect against hip fractures. Between January 2008 and December 2012, 646 (162 males, 484 females) incident cases (70.9 ± 6.8 years) of hip fractures were enrolled from five hospitals, with 646 sex- and age-matched (±3 years) controls (70.7 ± 6.8 years) from hospitals or the community. Face-to-face interviews were conducted to assess habitual dietary intakes using a 79-item food frequency questionnaire and various covariates by structured questionnaires. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses showed dose-dependent inverse correlations between the intake of total fruit (p-trend = 0.014), total vegetables (p-trend fruits and vegetables combined (p-trend fruits, vegetables and the combination of fruits and vegetables were 0.53 (0.32-0.87), 0.37 (0.23-0.60) and 0.25 (0.15-0.41), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that the benefits remained significant in males (p = 0.001) but not in females (p = 0.210) (p-interaction 0.045). Among the subcategories of fruits and vegetables, similar associations were observed for all subgroups except light-coloured fruits. Our findings suggest that greater consumption of both fruits and vegetables in men and vegetables in women may decrease the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures in elderly Chinese.

  11. Greater Pupil Size in Response to Emotional Faces as an Early Marker of Social-Communicative Difficulties in Infants at High Risk for Autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Jennifer B; Luyster, Rhiannon J; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

    2016-01-01

    When scanning faces, individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have shown reduced visual attention (e.g., less time on eyes) and atypical autonomic responses (e.g., heightened arousal). To understand how these differences might explain sub-clinical variability in social functioning, 9-month-olds, with or without a family history of ASD, viewed emotionally-expressive faces, and gaze and pupil diameter (a measure of autonomic activation) were recorded using eye-tracking. Infants at high-risk for ASD with no subsequent clinical diagnosis (HRA-) and low-risk controls (LRC) showed similar face scanning and attention to eyes and mouth. Attention was overall greater to eyes than mouth, but this varied as a function of the emotion presented. HRA- showed significantly larger pupil size than LRC. Correlations between scanning at 9 months, pupil size at 9 months, and 18-month social-communicative behavior, revealed positive associations between pupil size and attention to both face and eyes at 9 months in LRC, and a negative association between 9-month pupil size and 18-month social-communicative behavior in HRA-. The present findings point to heightened autonomic arousal in HRA-. Further, with greater arousal relating to worse social-communicative functioning at 18 months, this work points to a mechanism by which unaffected siblings might develop atypical social behavior.

  12. Neural systems underlying aversive conditioning in humans with primary and secondary reinforcers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio R Delgado

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Money is a secondary reinforcer commonly used across a range of disciplines in experimental paradigms investigating reward learning and decision-making. The effectiveness of monetary reinforcers during aversive learning and its neural basis, however, remains a topic of debate. Specifically, it is unclear if the initial acquisition of aversive representations of monetary losses depends on similar neural systems as more traditional aversive conditioning that involves primary reinforcers. This study contrasts the efficacy of a biologically defined primary reinforcer (shock and a socially defined secondary reinforcer (money during aversive learning and its associated neural circuitry. During a two-part experiment, participants first played a gambling game where wins and losses were based on performance to gain an experimental bank. Participants were then exposed to two separate aversive conditioning sessions. In one session, a primary reinforcer (mild shock served as an unconditioned stimulus (US and was paired with one of two colored squares, the conditioned stimuli (CS+ and CS-, respectively. In another session, a secondary reinforcer (loss of money served as the US and was paired with one of two different CS. Skin conductance responses were greater for CS+ compared to CS- trials irrespective of type of reinforcer. Neuroimaging results revealed that the striatum, a region typically linked with reward-related processing, was found to be involved in the acquisition of aversive conditioned response irrespective of reinforcer type. In contrast, the amygdala was involved during aversive conditioning with primary reinforcers, as suggested by both an exploratory fMRI analysis and a follow-up case study with a patient with bilateral amygdala damage. Taken together, these results suggest that learning about potential monetary losses may depend on reinforcement learning related systems, rather than on typical structures involved in more biologically based

  13. Aversive effects of ethanol in adolescent versus adult rats: potential causes and implication for future drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm-Sapyta, Nicole L; DiFeliceantonio, Alexandra G; Foscue, Ethan; Glowacz, Susan; Haseeb, Naadeyah; Wang, Nancy; Zhou, Cathy; Kuhn, Cynthia M

    2010-12-01

    Many people experiment with alcohol and other drugs of abuse during their teenage years. Epidemiological evidence suggests that younger initiates into drug taking are more likely to develop problematic drug seeking behavior, including binge and other high-intake behaviors. The level of drug intake for any individual depends on the balance of rewarding and aversive effects of the drug in that individual. Multiple rodent studies have demonstrated that aversive effects of drugs of abuse are reduced in adolescent compared to adult animals. In this study, we addressed 2 key questions: First, do reduced aversive effects of ethanol in younger rats correlate with increased ethanol consumption? Second, are the reduced aversive effects in adolescents attributable to reduced sensitivity to ethanol's physiologic effects? Adolescent and adult rats were tested for ethanol conditioned taste aversion (CTA) followed by a voluntary drinking period, including postdeprivation consumption. Multivariate regression was used to assess correlations. In separate experiments, adolescent and adult rats were tested for their sensitivity to the hypothermic and sedative effects of ethanol, and for blood ethanol concentrations (BECs). We observed that in adolescent rats but not adults, taste aversion was inversely correlated with postdeprivation consumption. Adolescents also exhibited a greater increase in consumption after deprivation than adults. Furthermore, the age difference in ethanol CTA was not attributable to differences in hypothermia, sedation, or BECs. These results suggest that during adolescence, individuals that are insensitive to aversive effects are most likely to develop problem drinking behaviors. These results underscore the importance of the interaction between developmental stage and individual variation in sensitivity to alcohol. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  14. From which level of competition in clubs are adolescents at greater risk of injury compared with outside-of-clubs athletes? A school-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiggi, Maxime; Rindler, Victoria; Griffet, Jean

    2018-02-01

    Sport practice is a key factor in a person's physical and mental health but, for adolescent athletes, some injuries lead to health problems in the long term. The literature provides multiple factors for understanding injury but does not give information about injury risk related to each level of play in a large sample of multisport athletes. This study investigates this relationship in 14- to 19-year-old adolescents. The survey on adolescents and health was conducted in classrooms of France, from February to March 2015. Only sports players were included in the analyses (n = 986). The levels of play were divided into five categories: outside of a club/no competition, club player/no competition, club player/local level, club player/state level and club player/national and higher level. A three-step binary logistic regression analysis with age, sex, type of sport, weekly hours of exposure, and level of play was used. During the past year, 48.1% of the adolescents were injured. Age and sex were not risk factors. The injury risk associated with the increases in level of play is higher than those related to the hours of exposure per week or the type of sport. In clubs, adolescents who do not compete or play at a local level showed no evidence of greater injury risk whereas state-level and national- and higher-level athletes were at greater risk than outside-of-club players (OR = 2.18, 95%CI = 1.13-3.94 and OR = 3.89, 95%CI = 2.07-7.31, respectively). Adolescents who play sports in clubs are clearly more exposed to injury than those who play outside of a club, mainly from state level. Age and sex are not related to injury. Future epidemiological studies should control adolescents' level of play. Special attention should be accorded to the injury risk of athletes playing at these levels of competition.

  15. A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. My loss is your loss ... Sometimes: loss aversion and the effect of motivational biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Arvai, Joseph L; Arkes, Hal R

    2008-08-01

    Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.

  17. Occupational dust exposure and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma risk in a population-based case–control study conducted in the greater Boston area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langevin, Scott M; McClean, Michael D; Michaud, Dominique S; Eliot, Melissa; Nelson, Heather H; Kelsey, Karl T

    2013-01-01

    Head and neck cancers account for an estimated 549,000 global cancer diagnoses each year. While tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and HPV16 infection are considered to be the major risk factors for this disease, occupational risk factors, including exposure to asbestos, have also been described, although dust exposures other than asbestos have been historically understudied. We have investigated the relationship between occupational exposures to five types of dusts, including sawdust, concrete dust, leather dust, metal dust, and chimney soot, and head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) in the greater Boston area. We report findings from a population-based case–control study involving 951 incident HNSCC cases and 1193 controls, frequency matched on age (±3 years), sex, and town/neighborhood of residence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between occupational exposure to each type of dust and HNSCC, overall and by primary tumor site. After adjusting for age, sex, race, smoking, alcohol consumption, education, and HPV16 serology, laryngeal carcinoma risk increased for each decade of occupational exposure to sawdust (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.3) and metal dust (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.4); and HNSCC risk increased for each decade of occupational leather dust exposure (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.9). We have provided evidence for an association between occupational sawdust and metal dust and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, and leather dust and HNSCC, with increasing risk with longer duration at the exposed occupation

  18. Occupational dust exposure and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma risk in a population-based case-control study conducted in the greater Boston area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langevin, Scott M; McClean, Michael D; Michaud, Dominique S; Eliot, Melissa; Nelson, Heather H; Kelsey, Karl T

    2013-12-01

    Head and neck cancers account for an estimated 549,000 global cancer diagnoses each year. While tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and HPV16 infection are considered to be the major risk factors for this disease, occupational risk factors, including exposure to asbestos, have also been described, although dust exposures other than asbestos have been historically understudied. We have investigated the relationship between occupational exposures to five types of dusts, including sawdust, concrete dust, leather dust, metal dust, and chimney soot, and head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) in the greater Boston area. We report findings from a population-based case-control study involving 951 incident HNSCC cases and 1193 controls, frequency matched on age (±3 years), sex, and town/neighborhood of residence. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between occupational exposure to each type of dust and HNSCC, overall and by primary tumor site. After adjusting for age, sex, race, smoking, alcohol consumption, education, and HPV16 serology, laryngeal carcinoma risk increased for each decade of occupational exposure to sawdust (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.3) and metal dust (OR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.4); and HNSCC risk increased for each decade of occupational leather dust exposure (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.9). We have provided evidence for an association between occupational sawdust and metal dust and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, and leather dust and HNSCC, with increasing risk with longer duration at the exposed occupation. © 2013 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Are female daycare workers at greater risk of cytomegalovirus infection? A secondary data analysis of CMV seroprevalence between 2010 and 2013 in Hamburg, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stranzinger, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Close contact with asymptomatic children younger than three years is a risk factor for a primary cytomegalovirus (CMV infection. In pregnant women, such primary infection increases the risk of CMV-induced feto- or embryopathy. Daycare providers have therefore implemented working restrictions for pregnant daycare workers (DCWs in accordance with legislation and guidelines for maternity protection. However, little is known about the infection risk for DCWs. We therefore compared the prevalence of CMV antibodies of pregnant DCWs to that of female blood donors (BDs.Method: In a secondary data analysis, the prevalence of anti-CMV IgG among pregnant DCWs (N=509 in daycare centers (DCCs was compared to the prevalence of female first-time BDs (N=14,358 from the greater region of Hamburg, Germany. Data collection took place between 2010 and 2013. The influence of other risk factors such as age, pregnancies and place of residence was evaluated using logistic regression models. Results: The prevalence of CMV antibodies in pregnant DCWs was higher than in female BDs (54.6 vs 41.5%; OR 1.6; 95%CI 1.3–1.9. The subgroup of BDs who had given birth to at least one child and who lived in the city of Hamburg (N=2,591 had a prevalence of CMV antibodies similar to the prevalence in pregnant DCWs (53.9 vs 54.6%; OR 0.9; 95%CI 0.8–1.2. Age, pregnancy history and living in the center of Hamburg were risk factors for CMV infections.Conclusion: The comparison of pregnant DCWs to the best-matching subgroup of female first-time BDs with past pregnancies and living in the city of Hamburg does not indicate an elevated risk of CMV infection among DCWs. However, as two secondary data sets from convenience samples were used, a more detailed investigation of the risk factors other than place of residence, age and maternity was not possible. Therefore, the CMV infection risk in DCWs should be further studied by taking into consideration the potential preventive

  20. Effect of sex on ethanol consumption and conditioned taste aversion in adolescent and adult rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm-Sapyta, Nicole L; Francis, Reynold; MacDonald, Andrea; Keistler, Colby; O'Neill, Lauren; Kuhn, Cynthia M

    2014-04-01

    Vulnerability to alcoholism is determined by many factors, including the balance of pleasurable vs. aversive alcohol-induced sensations: pleasurable sensations increase intake, while aversive sensations decrease it. Female sex and adolescent age are associated with lower sensitivity to intake-reducing effects and more rapid development of alcohol abuse. This study assessed voluntary drinking and the aversive effects of alcohol to determine whether these measures are inversely related across the sexes and development. Voluntary drinking of 20 % ethanol in an every-other-day (EOD) availability pattern and the dose-response relationship of ethanol conditioned taste aversion (CTA) were assessed in male and female adolescent and adult rats. CTA was sex specific in adult but not adolescent rats, with adult females exhibiting less aversion. Voluntary ethanol consumption varied according to age and individual differences but was not sex specific. Adolescents initially drank more than adults, exhibited greater day-to-day variation in consumption, were more susceptible to the alcohol deprivation effect, and took longer to establish individual differences in consumption patterns. These results show that the emergence of intake patterns differs between adolescents and adults. Adolescents as a group initiate drinking at high levels but decrease intake as they mature. A subset of adolescents maintained high drinking levels into adulthood. In contrast, most adults consumed at steady, low levels, but a small subset quickly established and maintained high-consumption patterns. Adolescents also showed marked deprivation-induced increases. Sex differences were not observed in EOD drinking during either adolescence or adulthood.

  1. How to make loss aversion disappear and reverse: tests of the decision by sampling origin of loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walasek, Lukasz; Stewart, Neil

    2015-02-01

    One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion--the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to find loss aversion, loss neutrality, and even the reverse of loss aversion.

  2. Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (II): Cost-benefit analysis of reducing elk brucellosis prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boroff, Kari; Kauffman, Mandy; Peck, Dannele; Maichak, Eric; Scurlock, Brandon; Schumaker, Brant

    2016-11-01

    Recent cases of bovine brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in cattle (Bos taurus) and domestic bison (Bison bison) of the southern Greater Yellowstone Area (SGYA) have been traced back to free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus). Several management activities have been implemented to reduce brucellosis seroprevalence in elk, including test-and-slaughter, low-density feeding at elk winter feedgrounds, and elk vaccination. It is unclear which of these activities are most cost-effective at reducing the risk of elk transmitting brucellosis to cattle. In a companion paper, a stochastic risk model was used to translate a reduction in elk seroprevalence to a reduction in the risk of transmission to cattle. Here, we use those results to estimate the expected economic benefits and costs of reducing seroprevalence in elk using three different management activities: vaccination of elk with Brucella strain 19 (S19), low-density feeding of elk, and elk test-and-slaughter. Results indicate that the three elk management activities yield negative expected net benefits, ranging from -$2983 per year for low-density feeding to -$595,471 per year for test-and-slaughter. Society's risk preferences will determine whether strategies that generate small negative net benefit, such as low-density feeding, are worth implementing. However, activities with large negative net benefits, such as test-and-slaughter and S19 vaccination, are unlikely to be economically worthwhile. Given uncertainty about various model parameters, we identify some circumstances in which individual management activities might generate positive expected net benefit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Professional Rugby Union players have a 60% greater risk of time loss injury after concussion: a 2-season prospective study of clinical outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Matthew; Kemp, Simon; Smith, Andrew; Trewartha, Grant; Stokes, Keith

    2016-01-01

    Aim To investigate incidence of concussion, clinical outcomes and subsequent injury risk following concussion. Methods In a two-season (2012/2013, 2013/2014) prospective cohort study, incidence of diagnosed match concussions (injuries/1000 h), median time interval to subsequent injury of any type (survival time) and time spent at each stage of the graduated return to play pathway were determined in 810 professional Rugby Union players (1176 player seasons). Results Match concussion incidence was 8.9/1000 h with over 50% occurring in the tackle. Subsequent incidence of any injury for players who returned to play in the same season following a diagnosed concussion (122/1000 h, 95% CI 106 to 141) was 60% higher (IRR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) than for those who did not sustain a concussion (76/1000 h, 95% CI 72 to 80). Median time to next injury following return to play was shorter following concussion (53 days, 95% CI 41 to 64) than following non-concussive injuries (114 days, 95% CI 85 to 143). 38% of players reported recurrence of symptoms or failed to match their baseline neurocognitive test during the graduated return to play protocol. Summary and conclusions Players who returned to play in the same season after a diagnosed concussion had a 60% greater risk of time-loss injury than players without concussion. A substantial proportion of players reported recurrence of symptoms or failed to match baseline neurocognitive test scores during graduated return to play. These data pave the way for trials of more conservative and comprehensive graduated return to play protocols, with a greater focus on active rehabilitation. PMID:26626266

  4. A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaren, Zoë M; Schnippel, Kathryn; Sharp, Alana

    2016-01-01

    Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB) is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context. We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing. Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p informal settlement households (β1 = 0.021, p = 0.136, R2 = 0.014). These analyses reveal that the set of characteristics identified by the Global Plan as defining key populations do not adequately predict

  5. Loss aversion and rent-seeking: An experimental study

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Xiaojing

    2008-01-01

    We report an experiment designed to evaluate the impact of loss aversion on rent-seeking contests. We find, as theoretically predicted, a negative relationship between rent-seeking expenditures and loss aversion. However, for any degree of loss aversion, levels of rent-seeking expenditure are higher than predicted. Moreover, we find that the effect of loss aversion becomes weaker with repetition of the contest.

  6. Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Simone Cerreia-Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Luigi Montrucchio

    2010-01-01

    We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.

  7. Aversion substance(s) of the rat coagulating glands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawienowski, Anthony M.; Berry, Iver J.; Kennelly, James J.

    1982-01-01

    The aversive substance(s) present in adult male urine were not found in castrate rat urine. Removal of the coagulating glands also resulted in a loss of the aversion compounds. The aversion substances were restored to the urine after androgen treatment of the castrate rats.

  8. Consequences of regret aversion : effects of expected feedback on risky decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeelenberg, M.; Beattie, J.; Pligt, van der J.; Vries, de N.K.

    1996-01-01

    Previous research has considered the question of how anticipated regret affects risky decision making. Several studies have shown that anticipated regret forces participants towards the safe option, showing risk-aversion. We argue that these results are due to the previous confounding of the

  9. Aversive Life Events Enhance Human Freezing Responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, M.A.; Stins, J.F.; Roelofs, K.

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated the effect of prior aversive life events on freezing-like responses. Fifty healthy females were presented neutral, pleasant, and unpleasant images from the International Affective Picture System while standing on a stabilometric platform and wearing a polar band

  10. Aversive life events enhance human freezing responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, M.A.; Stins, J.F.; Roelofs, K.

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated the effect of prior aversive life events on freezing-like responses. Fifty healthy females were presented neutral, pleasant, and unpleasant images from the International Affective Picture System while standing on a stabilometric platform and wearing a polar band

  11. Memory reconsolidation in aversive and appetitive settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Claire Reichelt

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Memory reconsolidation has been observed across species and in a number of behavioural paradigms. The majority of memory reconsolidation studies have been carried out in pavlovian fear conditioning and other aversive memory settings, with potential implications for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder. However, there is a growing literature on memory reconsolidation in appetitive reward-related memory paradigms, including translational models of drug addiction. While there appears to be substantial similarity in the basic phenomenon and underlying mechanisms of memory reconsolidation across unconditioned stimulus valence, there are also notable discrepancies. These arise both when comparing aversive to appetitive paradigms and also across different paradigms within the same valence of memory. We review the demonstration of memory reconsolidation across different aversive and appetitive memory paradigms, the commonalities and differences in underlying mechanisms and the conditions under which each memory undergoes reconsolidation. We focus particularly on whether principles derived from the aversive literature are applicable to appetitive settings, and also whether the expanding literature in appetitive paradigms is informative for fear memory reconsolidation.

  12. Comparing uncertainty aversion towards different sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baillon, Aurélien; Liu, Ning; van Dolder, Dennie

    2017-01-01

    We propose simple behavioral definitions of comparative uncertainty aversion for a single agent towards different sources of uncertainty. Our definitions allow for the comparison of utility curvature for different sources if the agent’s choices satisfy subjective expected utility towards each

  13. On Loss Aversion in Capuchin Monkeys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberberg, Alan; Roma, Peter G.; Huntsberry, Mary E.; Warren-Boulton, Frederick R.; Sakagami, Takayuki; Ruggiero, Angela M.; Suomi, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    Chen, Lakshminarayanan, and Santos (2006) claim to show in three choice experiments that monkeys react rationally to price and wealth shocks, but, when faced with gambles, display hallmark, human-like biases that include loss aversion. We present three experiments with monkeys and humans consistent with a reinterpretation of their data that…

  14. Imagery Rescripting: The Impact of Conceptual and Perceptual Changes on Aversive Autobiographical Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slofstra, Christien; Nauta, Maaike H; Holmes, Emily A; Bockting, Claudi L H

    2016-01-01

    Imagery rescripting (ImRs) is a process by which aversive autobiographical memories are rendered less unpleasant or emotional. ImRs is thought only to be effective if a change in the meaning-relevant (semantic) content of the mental image is produced, according to a cognitive hypothesis of ImRs. We propose an additional hypothesis: that ImRs can also be effective by the manipulation of perceptual features of the memory, without explicitly targeting meaning-relevant content. In two experiments using a within-subjects design (both N = 48, community samples), both Conceptual-ImRs-focusing on changing meaning-relevant content-and Perceptual-ImRs-focusing on changing perceptual features-were compared to Recall-only of aversive autobiographical image-based memories. An active control condition, Recall + Attentional Breathing (Recall+AB) was added in the first experiment. In the second experiment, a Positive-ImRs condition was added-changing the aversive image into a positive image that was unrelated to the aversive autobiographical memory. Effects on the aversive memory's unpleasantness, vividness and emotionality were investigated. In Experiment 1, compared to Recall-only, both Conceptual-ImRs and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in unpleasantness, and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in emotionality of memories. In Experiment 2, the effects on unpleasantness were not replicated, and both Conceptual-ImRs and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in emotionality, compared to Recall-only, as did Positive-ImRs. There were no effects on vividness, and the ImRs conditions did not differ significantly from Recall+AB. Results suggest that, in addition to traditional forms of ImRs, targeting the meaning-relevant content of an image during ImRs, relatively simple techniques focusing on perceptual aspects or positive imagery might also yield benefits. Findings require replication and extension to clinical samples.

  15. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk in computed tomography examinations in some selected CT facilities in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osei, R. K.

    2012-01-01

    The effective dose and cancer risk were determined for patients undergoing seven different types of CT examinations in two CT facilities in the Greater Accra region of Ghana. The two facilities, namely; the Diagnostic Centre Ltd and Cocoa Clinic were chosen because of their significant patient throughput. The effective dose was from patient data namely age, sex, height, weight and technique factors; namely scan length, KVp (Kilovolts peak), mAs (milliamperes per second) and CTDIv from the control console of the CT machines. The effective dose was also estimated using the dose length product (DLP) and k Coefficients which is the anatomic region specific conversion factors. The cancer risk for each patient for a particular examination was determined from the effective dose, age and sex of each patient with the help of BEIR VII. In all, a total number of 800 adult patients with 400 from each of the two CT facilities were compiled. From Diagnostic Centre Ltd, the average effective dose was 5.61mSv in the range of 1.41mSv to 13.34mSv with average BMI of 26.19kg/m 2 in the range of 16.90kg/m 2 to 48.28kg/m 2 for all types of examinations. The average cancer risk was 0.0458 Sv - 1 for 400 patients in the range of 0.0001 Sv - 1 to 0.3036 Sv -1 compared with a population of 900 patients undergoing CT examination per year. From Cocoa Clinic, the average effective dose was 3.91MSv in the range of 0.54mSv to 27.32mSv with an average BMI of 25.59 kg/m 2 in the range of 17.18kg/m 2 to 35.34kg/m 2 and the average cancer risk was 0.0371 Sv - 1 in the range of 0.0001 Sv - 1 and 0.7125 Sv -1 . Some of the values were within the range of values of typical for typical effective dose for CT examinations reported by the ICRP. It was evident from this study that the variations in scanning parameters had significant impact on the effective doses to patient for similar CT examinations among the two facilities.(au)

  16. Transphyseal ACL Reconstruction in Skeletally Immature Patients: Does Independent Femoral Tunnel Drilling Place the Physis at Greater Risk Compared With Transtibial Drilling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Aristides I; Lakomkin, Nikita; Fabricant, Peter D; Lawrence, J Todd R

    2016-06-01

    Most studies examining the safety and efficacy of transphyseal anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction for skeletally immature patients utilize transtibial drilling. Independent femoral tunnel drilling may impart a different pattern of distal femoral physeal involvement. To radiographically assess differences in distal femoral physeal disruption between transtibial and independent femoral tunnel drilling. We hypothesized that more oblique tunnels associated with independent drilling involve a significantly larger area of physeal disruption compared with vertically oriented tunnels. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. We analyzed skeletally immature patients aged between 10 and 15 years who underwent transphyseal ACL reconstruction utilizing an independent femoral tunnel drilling technique between January 1, 2008, and March 31, 2011. These patients were matched with a transtibial technique cohort based on age and sex. Radiographic measurements were recorded from preoperative magnetic resonance imaging and postoperative radiographs. Ten patients in each group were analyzed. There were significant differences between independent drilling and transtibial drilling cohorts in the estimated area of physeal disruption (1.64 vs 0.74 cm(2); P drilling technique disrupt a larger area of the distal femoral physis and create more eccentric tunnels compared with a transtibial technique. As most studies noting the safety of transphyseal ACL reconstruction have utilized a central, vertical femoral tunnel, surgeons should be aware that if an independent femoral tunnel technique is utilized during transphyseal ACL reconstruction, more physeal tissue is at risk and tunnels are more eccentrically placed across the physis when drilling at more horizontal angles. Prior studies have shown that greater physeal involvement and eccentric tunnels may increase the risk of growth disturbance.

  17. Tomato Sauce Enriched with Olive Oil Exerts Greater Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors than Raw Tomato and Tomato Sauce: A Randomized Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palmira Valderas-Martinez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies have observed a negative association between tomato intake and the incidence of cardiovascular disease. As tomato sauces are usually cooked with the addition of oil, some studies have pointed out that both processes may increase the bioavailability of the bioactive compounds. However, the effect of consumption of raw tomatoes and tomato sauces on inflammation biomarkers and adhesion molecules related to atherosclerosis remains unknown. The aim of this study was to test the postprandial effects of a single dose of raw tomatoes (RT, tomato sauce (TS and tomato sauce with refined olive oil (TSOO on cardiovascular disease risk factors. We performed an open, prospective, randomized, cross-over, controlled feeding trial in 40 healthy subjects who randomly received: 7.0 g of RT/kg of body weight (BW, 3.5 g of TS/kg BW, 3.5 g of TSOO/Kg BW and 0.25 g of sugar solved in water/kg BW on a single occasion on four different days. Biochemical parameters and cellular and circulating inflammatory biomarkers were assessed at baseline and 6 h after each intervention. The results indicate that, compared to control intervention, a single tomato intake in any form decreased plasma total cholesterol, triglycerides and several cellular and plasma inflammatory biomarkers, and increased plasma high density lipoproteins (HDL cholesterol and interleukine (IL 10 concentrations. However, the changes of plasma IL-6 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1, and lymphocyte function-associated antigen-1 (LFA-1 from T-lymphocytes and CD36 from monocytes were significantly greater after TSOO than after RT and TS interventions. We concluded that tomato intake has beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk factors, especially cooked and enriched with oil.

  18. A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoë M McLaren

    Full Text Available Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context.We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing.Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.133, lower mobile phone access (β1 = -0.053, p < 0.001, R2 = 0.089, lower unemployment rates (β1 = -0.020, p = 0.003, R2 = 0.048, and a lower proportion of low-income households

  19. The GREAT-ER model in China: Evaluating the risk of both treated and untreated wastewater discharges and a consideration to the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Benjamin; Jones, Kevin; Sweetman, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    As a result of rapid economic development, the production and usage of chemicals in China has risen significantly. This has resulted in China's environment becoming degraded. The Chinese government has attempted to ease these problems with significant investment towards upgrading the wastewater network. These efforts have initially focused upon large cities; progressing towards smaller populations within the most recent 5 year plan. However rural populations were largely overlooked, ~90% of rural settlements do not have treatment facilities for their wastewater. The next (13th) five year plan is a great opportunity to improve upon wastewater infrastructure. This transition is particularly important and it is essential for the government to prioritise settlements to provide treatment facilities and to improve water quality in receiving waters. This study focuses upon the use of a catchment model in order make progress towards this goal. A reliable model which can capture the complexity of the catchment is needed, but one without complexity in itself, in order for it to be developed and validated without an excessive requirement for data. The Geo-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) model is a catchment-scale stochastic-deterministic GIS model. It is primarily used for higher-tier chemical risk assessment. Emissions are from point source only and are calculated based upon population and calculated emission rates per capita. Dilution and transportation are determined using low-flow statistics within each stretch; calculated based upon catchment soil and topographic properties. Removal of the contaminant can occur prior to emission and in-stream. The lowest tier methodology applies a simple 1st-order removal rate and a flat percentage removal for in-stream and sewage treatment work removal respectively. The data requirements are relatively low, although still challenging for many situations. Many authors have reported reasonable

  20. Greater-confinement disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trevorrow, L.E.; Schubert, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    Greater-confinement disposal (GCD) is a general term for low-level waste (LLW) disposal technologies that employ natural and/or engineered barriers and provide a degree of confinement greater than that of shallow-land burial (SLB) but possibly less than that of a geologic repository. Thus GCD is associated with lower risk/hazard ratios than SLB. Although any number of disposal technologies might satisfy the definition of GCD, eight have been selected for consideration in this discussion. These technologies include: (1) earth-covered tumuli, (2) concrete structures, both above and below grade, (3) deep trenches, (4) augered shafts, (5) rock cavities, (6) abandoned mines, (7) high-integrity containers, and (8) hydrofracture. Each of these technologies employ several operations that are mature,however, some are at more advanced stages of development and demonstration than others. Each is defined and further described by information on design, advantages and disadvantages, special equipment requirements, and characteristic operations such as construction, waste emplacement, and closure

  1. F227. PSYCHOLOGICAL TRAUMA OCCURRING DURING ADOLESCENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF GREATER WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE IN EARLY PSYCHOSIS PATIENTS INDEPENDENTLY OF MEDICATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alameda, Luis; Levier, Axel; Golay, Philippe; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Delacretaz, Aurélie; Glatard, Anaïs; Dubath, Céline; Do, Kim Q; Eap, Chin B; Conus, Philippe

    2018-01-01

    present in 32% of the sample. No differences between groups were found at baseline in terms of BMI or WC. Late-Trauma patients, when compared to Non-Trauma patients showed greater WCs during the follow-up (p=0.012). No differences between Early or Late-Trauma patients and Non-Trauma patients were found in any of the other outcome measures during the follow up. Baseline BMI and treatment duration were significantly associated with the level of BMI and WC during the follow up. None of the other potential confounding factors were significantly associated with the outcome measures during the follow up. Discussion Exposition to trauma during adolescence in EP patients is associated with a higher risk of greater WC during the early phase of the disease, independently of the medication intake, depression and other confounding factors. Specific preventive measures should be addressed in these patients in order to reduce the risk of obesity. Depending on the timing of traumatic exposure, different developmental mechanisms may underlie this differential possible impact on WC. Further studies on interactions between central consequences of traumatism and metabolic syndrome are warranted.

  2. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

    2014-01-01

    In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  3. Role for the Rostromedial Tegmental Nucleus in Signaling the Aversive Properties of Alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, Elizabeth J; McDougle, Molly J; Siegel, Griffin S; Jhou, Thomas C; Chandler, L Judson

    2016-08-01

    While the rewarding effects of alcohol contribute significantly to its addictive potential, it is becoming increasingly appreciated that alcohol's aversive properties also play an important role in the propensity to drink. Despite this, the neurobiological mechanism for alcohol's aversive actions is not well understood. The rostromedial tegmental nucleus (RMTg) was recently characterized for its involvement in aversive signaling and has been shown to encode the aversive properties of cocaine, yet its involvement in alcohol's aversive actions have not been elucidated. Adult male and female Long-Evans rats underwent conditioned taste aversion (CTA) procedures where exposure to a novel saccharin solution was paired with intraperitoneal administration of saline, lithium chloride (LiCl), or ethanol (EtOH). Control rats underwent the same paradigm except that drug and saccharin exposure were explicitly unpaired. Saccharin consumption was measured on test day in the absence of drug administration, and rats were sacrificed 90 to 105 minutes following access to saccharin. Brains were subsequently harvested and processed for cFos immunohistochemistry. The number of cFos-labeled neurons was counted in the RMTg and the lateral habenula (LHb)-a region that sends prominent glutamatergic input to the RMTg. In rats that received paired drug and saccharin exposure, EtOH and LiCl induced significant CTA compared to saline to a similar degree in males and females. Both EtOH- and LiCl-induced CTA significantly enhanced cFos expression in the RMTg and LHb but not the hippocampus. Similar to behavioral measures, no significant effect of sex on CTA-induced cFos expression was observed. cFos expression in both the RMTg and LHb was significantly correlated with CTA magnitude with greater cFos being associated with more pronounced CTA. In addition, cFos expression in the RMTg was positively correlated with LHb cFos. These data suggest that the RMTg and LHb are involved in the expression of

  4. Neural markers of loss aversion in resting-state brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canessa, Nicola; Crespi, Chiara; Baud-Bovy, Gabriel; Dodich, Alessandra; Falini, Andrea; Antonellis, Giulia; Cappa, Stefano F

    2017-02-01

    Neural responses in striatal, limbic and somatosensory brain regions track individual differences in loss aversion, i.e. the higher sensitivity to potential losses compared with equivalent gains in decision-making under risk. The engagement of structures involved in the processing of aversive stimuli and experiences raises a further question, i.e. whether the tendency to avoid losses rather than acquire gains represents a transient fearful overreaction elicited by choice-related information, or rather a stable component of one's own preference function, reflecting a specific pattern of neural activity. We tested the latter hypothesis by assessing in 57 healthy human subjects whether the relationship between behavioral and neural loss aversion holds at rest, i.e. when the BOLD signal is collected during 5minutes of cross-fixation in the absence of an explicit task. Within the resting-state networks highlighted by a spatial group Independent Component Analysis (gICA), we found a significant correlation between strength of activity and behavioral loss aversion in the left ventral striatum and right posterior insula/supramarginal gyrus, i.e. the very same regions displaying a pattern of neural loss aversion during explicit choices. Cross-study analyses confirmed that this correlation holds when voxels identified by gICA are used as regions of interest in task-related activity and vice versa. These results suggest that the individual degree of (neural) loss aversion represents a stable dimension of decision-making, which reflects in specific metrics of intrinsic brain activity at rest possibly modulating cortical excitability at choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Inequity aversion and the evolution of cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Asrar; Karlapalem, Kamalakar

    2014-02-01

    Evolution of cooperation is a widely studied problem in biology, social science, economics, and artificial intelligence. Most of the existing approaches that explain cooperation rely on some notion of direct or indirect reciprocity. These reciprocity based models assume agents recognize their partner and know their previous interactions, which requires advanced cognitive abilities. In this paper we are interested in developing a model that produces cooperation without requiring any explicit memory of previous game plays. Our model is based on the notion of inequity aversion, a concept introduced within behavioral economics, whereby individuals care about payoff equality in outcomes. Here we explore the effect of using income inequality to guide partner selection and interaction. We study our model by considering both the well-mixed and the spatially structured population and present the conditions under which cooperation becomes dominant. Our results support the hypothesis that inequity aversion promotes cooperative relationship among nonkin.

  6. A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Martin Kaae; Kozlovskaya, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Guilt aversion has been shown to play an important role in economic decision-making. In this paper, we take an axiomatic approach to guilt by deducing a utility representation from a list of easily interpretable assumptions on an agent's preferences. It turns out that our logarithmic representation can mitigate the problem of multiplicity of equilibria to which psychological games are prone. We apply the model in three well-known games and show that its predictions are consistent with experim...

  7. Different components of conditioned food aversion memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikitin, Vladimir P; Solntseva, Svetlana V; Kozyrev, Sergey A; Nikitin, Pavel V; Shevelkin, Alexey V

    2016-07-01

    Memory reconsolidation processes and protein kinase Mzeta (PKMzeta) activity in memory maintenance and reorganization are poorly understood. Therefore, we examined memory reconsolidation and PKMzeta activity during the maintenance and reorganization of a conditioned food aversion memory among snails. These processes were specifically evaluated after administration of a serotonin receptor antagonist (methiothepin), NMDA glutamate receptor antagonist (MK-801), protein synthesis inhibitor (cycloheximide; CYH), or PKMzeta inhibitor (zeta inhibitory peptide; ZIP) either 2 or 10 days after aversion training. Two days post-training, injections of MK-801 or CYH, combined with a conditioned stimulus reminder, caused amnesia development, and a second training 11 days after this induction did not lead to long-term memory formation. Interestingly, MK-801 or CYH injections and the reminder 10 days after training did not affect memory retrieval. Methiothepin and the reminder, or ZIP without the reminder, at 2 and 10 days after training led to memory impairment, while a second training 11 days after amnesia induction resulted in memory formation. These results suggest that the maintenance of a conditioned food aversion involves two different components with variable dynamics. One component could be characterized by memory strengthening over time and involve N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors and protein synthesis reconsolidation at early, but not late, training stages. The other memory component could involve serotonin-dependent reconsolidation and Mzeta-like kinase activity at both early and late stages after learning. Deficiencies within these two components led to various forms of memory impairment, which differed in terms of the formation of a conditioned food aversion during the second training. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Inflation Aversion and the Optimal Inflation Tax

    OpenAIRE

    Gaowang Wang; Heng-fu Zou

    2011-01-01

    The optimal inflation tax is reexamined in the framework of dynamic second best economy populated by individuals with inflation aversion. A simple formula for the optimal inflation rate is derived. Different from the literature, it is shown that if the marginal excess burden of other distorting taxes approaches zero, Friedman's rule for optimum quantity of money is not optimal, and the optimal inflation tax is negative; if the marginal excess burden of other taxes is nonzero, the optimal infl...

  9. Reward-centricity and attenuated aversions: An adolescent phenotype emerging from studies in laboratory animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doremus-Fitzwater, Tamara L; Spear, Linda P

    2016-11-01

    Adolescence is an evolutionarily conserved developmental period, with neural circuits and behaviors contributing to the detection, procurement, and receipt of rewards bearing similarity across species. Studies with laboratory animals suggest that adolescence is typified by a "reward-centric" phenotype-an increased sensitivity to rewards relative to adults. In contrast, adolescent rodents are reportedly less sensitive to the aversive properties of many drugs and naturally aversive stimuli. Alterations within the mesocorticolimbic dopamine and endocannabinoid systems likely contribute to an adolescent reward-sensitive, yet aversion-resistant, phenotype. Although early hypotheses postulated that developmental changes in dopaminergic circuitry would result in a "reward deficiency" syndrome, evidence now suggests the opposite: that adolescents are uniquely poised to seek out hedonic stimuli, experience greater "pleasure" from rewards, and consume rewarding stimuli in excess. Future studies that more clearly define the role of specific brain regions and neurotransmitter systems in the expression of behaviors toward reward- and aversive-related cues and stimuli are necessary to more fully understand an adolescent-proclivity for and vulnerability to rewards and drugs of potential abuse. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The Loss Aversion / Narrow Framing Approach to the Equity Premium Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas Barberis; Ming Huang

    2006-01-01

    We review a recent approach to understanding the equity premium puzzle. The key elements of this approach are loss aversion and narrow framing, two well-known features of decision-making under risk in experimental settings. In equilibrium, models that incorporate these ideas can generate a large equity premium and a low and stable risk-free rate, even when consumption growth is smooth and only weakly correlated with the stock market. Moreover, they can do so for parameter values that correspo...

  11. Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

    2016-01-01

    Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

  12. Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probablistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Offerman, T.; Palley, A.B.

    2016-01-01

    Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of 1/2 , and (ii) for

  13. A Moist Crevice for Word Aversion: In Semantics Not Sounds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H Thibodeau

    Full Text Available Why do people self-report an aversion to words like "moist"? The present studies represent an initial scientific exploration into the phenomenon of word aversion by investigating its prevalence and cause. Results of five experiments indicate that about 10-20% of the population is averse to the word "moist." This population often speculates that phonological properties of the word are the cause of their displeasure. However, data from the current studies point to semantic features of the word-namely, associations with disgusting bodily functions-as a more prominent source of peoples' unpleasant experience. "Moist," for averse participants, was notable for its valence and personal use, rather than imagery or arousal-a finding that was confirmed by an experiment designed to induce an aversion to the word. Analyses of individual difference measures suggest that word aversion is more prevalent among younger, more educated, and more neurotic people, and is more commonly reported by females than males.

  14. Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer under Yield and Demand Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the channel coordination of a supply chain (SC consisting of a loss-averse retailer and a risk-neutral supplier under yield and demand uncertainties. Three existing contracts are analyzed. Our results demonstrate that the buyback (BB and quantity flexibility (QF contracts can not only coordinate the supply chain but also lead to Pareto improvement for each player, while the wholesale price (WP contract fails to coordinate the chain due to the effects of double marginalization and risk preference. For comparison, a chain with a risk-neutral retailer is also analyzed. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordination contracts, and the impacts of loss aversion and random yield on the decision-making behaviors and system performance are then discussed.

  15. Ethanol-induced conditioned taste avoidance: reward or aversion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chuang; Showalter, John; Grigson, Patricia Sue

    2009-03-01

    Rats avoid intake of a palatable taste cue when paired with all drugs of abuse tested. Evidence suggests that, at least for morphine and cocaine, rats avoid the taste cue because they are anticipating the rewarding properties of the drug. Thus, the suppressive effects of a rewarding sucrose solution and cocaine, but not those of the putatively aversive agent, lithium chloride (LiCl), are exaggerated in drug-sensitive Lewis rats. Likewise, the suppressive effects of sucrose and morphine, but not those of LiCl, are eliminated by bilateral lesions of the gustatory thalamus. Unlike morphine and cocaine, it is less clear whether rewarding or aversive drug properties are responsible for ethanol-induced suppression of intake of a taste cue. The present set of studies tests whether, like cocaine, ethanol-induced suppression of intake of a taste cue also is greater in the drug-sensitive Lewis rats and whether the suppressive effects of the drug are prevented by bilateral lesions of the taste thalamus. In Experiment 1, fluid-deprived Lewis and Fischer rats were given 5-minute access to 0.15% saccharin and then injected with saline or a range of doses of ethanol (0.5, 0.75, 1.0, or 1.5 g/kg). There was a total of 6 such pairings. In Experiments 2 and 3, Sprague-Dawley rats received bilateral electrophysiologically guided lesions of the gustatory thalamus. After recovery, suppression of intake of the saccharin cue was evaluated following repeated daily pairings with either a high (1.5 g/kg) or a low (0.75 g/kg) dose of ethanol. Ethanol-induced suppression of intake of the saccharin conditioned stimulus (CS) did not differ between the drug-sensitive Lewis rats relative to the less-sensitive Fischer rats. Lesions of the taste thalamus, however, prevented the suppressive effect of the 0.75 g/kg dose of the drug, but had no impact on the suppressive effect of the 1.5 g/kg dose of ethanol. The results suggest that the suppressive effects of ethanol on CS intake are mediated by both

  16. Are team members less inequality averse than individual decision makers?

    OpenAIRE

    Haoran He; Marie Claire Villeval

    2014-01-01

    révision Août 2015; We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in team d...

  17. Are group members less inequality averse than individual decision makers?

    OpenAIRE

    He, Haoran; Villeval, Marie Claire

    2017-01-01

    International audience; We compare inequality aversion in individuals and teams by means of both within- and between-subject experimental designs, and we investigate how teams aggregate individual preferences. We find that team decisions reveal less inequality aversion than individual initial proposals in team decision-making. However, teams are no more selfish than individuals who decide in isolation. Individuals express strategically more inequality aversion in their initial proposals in te...

  18. At-Risk Student Averse: Risk Management and Accountability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasquez Heilig, Julian; Young, Michelle; Williams, Amy

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The prevailing theory of action underlying accountability is that holding schools and students accountable will increase educational output. While accountability's theory of action intuitively seemed plausible, at the point of No Child Left Behind's national implementation, little empirical research was available to either support or…

  19. Mechanisms of radiation-induced conditioned taste aversion learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabin, B.M.; Hunt, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The literature on taste aversion learning is reviewed and discussed, with particular emphasis on those studies that have used exposure to ionizing radiation as an unconditioned stimulus to produce a conditioned taste aversion. The primary aim of the review is to attempt to define the mechanisms that lead to the initiation of the taste aversion response following exposure to ionizing radiation. Studies using drug treatments to produce a taste aversion have been included to the extent that they are relevant to understanding the mechanisms by which exposure to ionizing radiation can affect the behavior of the organism. 141 references

  20. How to Make Loss Aversion Disappear and Reverse: Tests of the Decision by Sampling Origin of Loss Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Walasek, Lukasz; Stewart, Neil

    2014-01-01

    One of the most robust empirical findings in the behavioral sciences is loss aversion—the finding that losses loom larger than gains. We offer a new psychological explanation of the origins of loss aversion in which loss aversion emerges from differences in the distribution of gains and losses people experience. In 4 experiments, we tested this proposition by manipulating the range of gains and losses that individuals saw during the process of eliciting their loss aversion. We were able to fi...

  1. Loss aversion and duration of residence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip S. Morrison

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies of internal migration ask who moves, why they move, and what are the consequences - to themselves, their origin, and their destination. By contrast, studies of those who stay for very long durations are less common, despite the fact that most people move relatively infrequently. Objective: We argue that staying is the dominant, preferred state and that moving is simply an adjustment toward a desired state of stability (or equilibrium. The core of our argument, already recognized in the literature, is that migration is risky. However, we extend the argument to loss aversion as developed within prospect theory. Prospect theory posits that existing possessions, including the dwelling and existing commodities, are attributed a value well beyond their purchase price and that this extends the average period of staying among the loss-averse. Methods: Applying prospect theory has several challenges, including measurement of the reference point and potential degrees of gain and loss households face in deciding to change residence, as well as their own degree of loss aversion. The growing number of large panel sets should make it possible to estimate the degree to which endowment effects are likely to extend durations of residence as predicted by prospect theory. Conclusions: Rational expectations models of mobility focus on the changes in the level of consumption of residential services. By contrast, prospect theory focuses on potential gains and losses relative to the existing dwelling - the reference point. As we confront increasing durations of residence in contemporary society, an application of prospect theory is likely to yield important advantages over existing models of mobility and staying.

  2. A note on testing guilt aversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bellemare, Charles; Sebald, Alexander Christopher; Suetens, Sigrid

    2017-01-01

    We compare three approaches to test for guilt aversion in two economic experiments. The first approach elicits second-order beliefs using self-reports. The second approach discloses first-order beliefs of matched players to decision makers, which are taken as exogenous second-order beliefs...... of decision makers. The third approach lets decision makers make choices conditional on a sequence of possible first-order beliefs of matched players. We find that the first and third approach generate similar results, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The second approach, however, generates...

  3. Some aversive characteristics of centrifugally generated gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altman, F.

    1973-01-01

    The effective weight of rats was manipulated by centrifugation. Two effective weight levels were obtained. In three escape avoidance conditions a lever press produced a change from a base level of 2.1 g to a response level of 1.1 g. In a punishment condition a response produced a change from a 1.1 g level to a 2.1 g level and in an extinction condition responses had no effect on the 2.1 g effective weight level present. All changes took 30 sec and were maintained for an additional 10 sec before a return to base level was initiated. When responses occurred closer together than the 40 sec, they delayed the return to base level by 40 sec. This 40 sec interval is referred to as response-contingent-time. The response rate and amount of response-contingent-time served as the data. The results confirmed previous data that centrifugation is aversive. The results are interpreted as indicating that the aversiveness is attributable to the increase in effective weight, and that rats can discriminate the different angular velocity-radius of rotation combinations used.

  4. Does ambiguity aversion survive in experimental asset markets?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Füllbrunn, Sascha; Rau, Holger A.; Weitzel, Utz

    2014-01-01

    Although a number of theoretical studies explain empirical puzzles in finance with ambiguity aversion, it is not a given that individual ambiguity attitudes survive in markets. In fact, despite ample evidence of ambiguity aversion in individual decision making, most studies find no or only limited

  5. Black Faces, White Spaces: Adjusting Self to Manage Aversive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article focuses on conversations in which South Africans speak about their experiences of aversive racism in 'raced' spaces. The article interrogates experiences of aversive racism and argues that, for various reasons, racial segregation and less overt forms of racism remain entrenched in South Africa. Presently, those ...

  6. Aversive Learning and Trait Aggression Influence Retaliatory Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molapour, Tanaz; Lindström, Björn; Olsson, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In two experiments (n = 35, n = 34), we used a modified fear-conditioning paradigm to investigate the role of aversive learning in retaliatory behavior in social context. Participants first completed an initial aversive learning phase in which the pairing of a neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; i.e., neutral face) with a naturally aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; electric shock) was learned. Then they were given an opportunity to interact (i.e., administer 0-2 shocks) with the same faces again, during a Test phase. In Experiment 2, we used the same paradigm with the addition of online trial-by-trial ratings (e.g., US expectancy and anger) to examine the role of aversive learning, anger, and the learned expectancy of receiving punishment more closely. Our results indicate that learned aversions influenced future retaliation in a social context. In both experiments, participants showed largest skin conductance responses (SCRs) to the faces paired with one or two shocks, demonstrating successful aversive learning. Importantly, participants administered more shocks to the faces paired with the most number of shocks when the opportunity was given during test. Also, our results revealed that aggressive traits (Buss and Perry Aggression scale) were associated with retaliation only toward CSs associated with aversive experiences. These two experiments show that aggressive traits, when paired with aversive learning experiences enhance the likelihood to act anti-socially toward others.

  7. Loss Aversion under Prospect Theory: a Parameter-Free Measurement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Bleichrodt (Han); M. Abdellaoui (Mohammed); C. Paraschiv (Corina)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractA growing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion, a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory, can explain a variety of field and experimental data. Quantifications of loss aversion are, however, hindered by the absence of a general preference-based method to elicit the

  8. Self-Other Decision Making and Loss Aversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polman, Evan

    2012-01-01

    In eight studies, we tested the prediction that making choices for others involves less loss aversion than making choices for the self. We found that loss aversion is significantly lessened among people choosing for others in scenarios describing riskless choice (Study 1), gambling (Studies 2 and 3), and social aspects of life, such as likeably…

  9. Schizophrenia illness severity is associated with reduced loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, James; Buruju, Dheeraj; Perrin, Jennifer S; Reid, Ian C; Steele, J Douglas; Feltovich, Nick

    2017-06-01

    Loss aversion, whereby losses weigh more heavily than equal-sized gains, has been demonstrated in many decision-making settings. Previous research has suggested reduced loss aversion in schizophrenia, but with little evidence of a link between loss aversion and schizophrenia illness severity. In this study, 20 individuals with schizophrenia and 16 control participants, matched by age and sex, played two versions of the Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma, one version with only positive payoffs and another version in which negative payoffs were possible, with the second version being derived from the first by subtracting a constant value from all payoffs. The control group demonstrated significantly lower cooperation rates under negative payoffs, compared with the version with only positive payoffs, indicative of loss aversion. The patient group on average showed no loss aversion response. Moreover, the extent of loss aversion in patients was found to be negatively correlated with schizophrenia illness severity, with less ill patients showing loss aversion more similar to controls. Results were found to be robust to the inclusion of potential confounding factors as covariates within rigorous probit regression analyses. Reduced loss aversion is a feature of schizophrenia and related to illness severity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Eveningness and Later Sleep Timing Are Associated with Greater Risk for Alcohol and Marijuana Use in Adolescence: Initial Findings from the National Consortium on Alcohol and Neurodevelopment in Adolescence Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasler, Brant P; Franzen, Peter L; de Zambotti, Massimiliano; Prouty, Devin; Brown, Sandra A; Tapert, Susan F; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Pohl, Kilian M; Sullivan, Edith V; De Bellis, Michael D; Nagel, Bonnie J; Baker, Fiona C; Colrain, Ian M; Clark, Duncan B

    2017-06-01

    Abundant cross-sectional evidence links eveningness (a preference for later sleep-wake timing) and increased alcohol and drug use among adolescents and young adults. However, longitudinal studies are needed to examine whether eveningness is a risk factor for subsequent alcohol and drug use, particularly during adolescence, which is marked by parallel peaks in eveningness and risk for the onset of alcohol use disorders. This study examined whether eveningness and other sleep characteristics were associated with concurrent or subsequent substance involvement in a longitudinal study of adolescents. Participants were 729 adolescents (368 females; age 12 to 21 years) in the National Consortium on Alcohol and Neurodevelopment in Adolescence study. Associations between the sleep variables (circadian preference, sleep quality, daytime sleepiness, sleep timing, and sleep duration) and 3 categorical substance variables (at-risk alcohol use, alcohol bingeing, and past-year marijuana use [y/n]) were examined using ordinal and logistic regression with baseline age, sex, race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and psychiatric problems as covariates. At baseline, greater eveningness was associated with greater at-risk alcohol use, greater bingeing, and past-year use of marijuana. Later weekday and weekend bedtimes, but not weekday or weekend sleep duration, showed similar associations across the 3 substance outcomes at baseline. Greater baseline eveningness was also prospectively associated with greater bingeing and past-year use of marijuana at the 1-year follow-up, after covarying for baseline bingeing and marijuana use. Later baseline weekday and weekend bedtimes, and shorter baseline weekday sleep duration, were similarly associated with greater bingeing and past-year use of marijuana at the 1-year follow-up after covarying for baseline values. Findings suggest that eveningness and sleep timing may be under recognized risk factors and future areas of intervention for

  11. Further evidence for conditioned taste aversion induced by forced swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masaki, Takahisa; Nakajima, Sadahiko

    2005-01-31

    A series of experiments with rats reported that aversion to a taste solution can be established by forced swimming in a water pool. Experiment 1 demonstrated that correlation of taste and swimming is a critical factor for this phenomenon, indicating associative (i.e., Pavlovian) nature of this learning. Experiment 2 showed that this learning obeys the Pavlovian law of strength, by displaying a positive relationship between the duration of water immersion in training and the taste aversion observed in subsequent testing. Experiment 3 revealed that swimming rather than being wet is the critical agent, because a water shower did not endow rats with taste aversion. Experiment 4 found that taste aversion was a positive function of water level of the pools in training (0, 12 or 32 cm). These results, taken together, suggest that energy expenditure caused by physical exercise might be involved in the development of taste aversion.

  12. Acceptable losses: the debatable origins of loss aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yechiam, Eldad

    2018-04-16

    It is often claimed that negative events carry a larger weight than positive events. Loss aversion is the manifestation of this argument in monetary outcomes. In this review, we examine early studies of the utility function of gains and losses, and in particular the original evidence for loss aversion reported by Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica  47:263-291, 1979). We suggest that loss aversion proponents have over-interpreted these findings. Specifically, the early studies of utility functions have shown that while very large losses are overweighted, smaller losses are often not. In addition, the findings of some of these studies have been systematically misrepresented to reflect loss aversion, though they did not find it. These findings shed light both on the inability of modern studies to reproduce loss aversion as well as a second literature arguing strongly for it.

  13. Complexity and competition in appetitive and aversive neural circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crista L. Barberini

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making often involves using sensory cues to predict possible rewarding or punishing reinforcement outcomes before selecting a course of action. Recent work has revealed complexity in how the brain learns to predict rewards and punishments. Analysis of neural signaling during and after learning in the amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex, two brain areas that process appetitive and aversive stimuli, reveals a dynamic relationship between appetitive and aversive circuits. Specifically, the relationship between signaling in appetitive and aversive circuits in these areas shifts as a function of learning. Furthermore, although appetitive and aversive circuits may often drive opposite behaviors – approaching or avoiding reinforcement depending upon its valence – these circuits can also drive similar behaviors, such as enhanced arousal or attention; these processes also may influence choice behavior. These data highlight the formidable challenges ahead in dissecting how appetitive and aversive neural circuits interact to produce a complex and nuanced range of behaviors.

  14. Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Offerman, T.; Palley, A.

    2013-01-01

    Although strictly proper rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs, experimental results have shown that risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports towards the rule's baseline probability of 1/2, and a conservative preference for certain outcomes leads agents

  15. Risk, Balanced Skills and Entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hsieh, C.; Parker, S.C.; van Praag, C.M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes that risk aversion encourages individuals to invest in balanced skill profiles, making them more likely to become entrepreneurs. By not taking this possible linkage into account, previous research has underestimated the impacts of both risk aversion and balanced skills on the

  16. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  17. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  18. Imagery Rescripting: The Impact of Conceptual and Perceptual Changes on Aversive Autobiographical Memories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christien Slofstra

    Full Text Available Imagery rescripting (ImRs is a process by which aversive autobiographical memories are rendered less unpleasant or emotional. ImRs is thought only to be effective if a change in the meaning-relevant (semantic content of the mental image is produced, according to a cognitive hypothesis of ImRs. We propose an additional hypothesis: that ImRs can also be effective by the manipulation of perceptual features of the memory, without explicitly targeting meaning-relevant content.In two experiments using a within-subjects design (both N = 48, community samples, both Conceptual-ImRs-focusing on changing meaning-relevant content-and Perceptual-ImRs-focusing on changing perceptual features-were compared to Recall-only of aversive autobiographical image-based memories. An active control condition, Recall + Attentional Breathing (Recall+AB was added in the first experiment. In the second experiment, a Positive-ImRs condition was added-changing the aversive image into a positive image that was unrelated to the aversive autobiographical memory. Effects on the aversive memory's unpleasantness, vividness and emotionality were investigated.In Experiment 1, compared to Recall-only, both Conceptual-ImRs and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in unpleasantness, and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in emotionality of memories. In Experiment 2, the effects on unpleasantness were not replicated, and both Conceptual-ImRs and Perceptual-ImRs led to greater decreases in emotionality, compared to Recall-only, as did Positive-ImRs. There were no effects on vividness, and the ImRs conditions did not differ significantly from Recall+AB.Results suggest that, in addition to traditional forms of ImRs, targeting the meaning-relevant content of an image during ImRs, relatively simple techniques focusing on perceptual aspects or positive imagery might also yield benefits. Findings require replication and extension to clinical samples.

  19. Perceived inadequate care and excessive overprotection during childhood are associated with greater risk of sleep disturbance in adulthood: the Hisayama Study

    OpenAIRE

    Shibata, Mao; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Anno, Kozo; Kawata, Hiroshi; Iwaki, Rie; Sawamoto, Ryoko; Kubo, Chiharu; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Sudo, Nobuyuki; Hosoi, Masako

    2016-01-01

    Background Sleep disturbance and poor sleep quality are major health problems worldwide. One potential risk factor for the development and maintenance of sleep disturbance is the parenting style experienced during childhood. However, its role in sleep disturbance in adulthood has not yet been estimated. This Japanese population study was done to clarify the relation between the parenting styles ?care? and ?overprotection? during childhood and sleep disturbance in adulthood. Methods A total of...

  20. Toxoplasma gondii influences aversive behaviors of female rats in an estrus cycle dependent manner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golcu, Doruk; Gebre, Rahiwa Z; Sapolsky, Robert M

    2014-08-01

    The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) manipulates the behavior of its rodent intermediate host to facilitate its passage to its feline definitive host. This is accomplished by a reduction of the aversive response that rodents show towards cat odors, which likely increases the predation risk. Females on average show similar changes as males. However, behaviors that relate to aversion and attraction are usually strongly influenced by the estrus cycle. In this study, we replicated behavioral effects of T. gondii in female rats, as well as expanded it to two novel behavioral paradigms. We also characterized the role of the estrus cycle in the behavioral effects of T. gondii on female rats. Uninfected females preferred to spend more time in proximity to rabbit rather than bobcat urine, and in a dark chamber rather than a lit chamber. Infected females lost both of these preferences, and also spent more time investigating social novelty (foreign bedding in their environment). Taken together, these data suggest that infection makes females less risk averse and more exploratory. Furthermore, this effect was influenced by the estrus cycle. Uninfected rats preferred rabbit urine to bobcat urine throughout the cycle except at estrus and metestrus. In contrast, infected rats lost this preference at every stage of the cycle except estrus. Commensurate with the possibility that this was a hormone-dependent effect, infected rats had elevated levels of circulating progesterone, a known anxiolytic. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.