Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

OpenAIRE

Velmans, Max

1996-01-01

Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

Quantum causality conceptual issues in the causal theory of quantum mechanics

CERN Document Server

Riggs, Peter J; French, Steven RD

2009-01-01

This is a treatise devoted to the foundations of quantum physics and the role that causality plays in the microscopic world governed by the laws of quantum mechanics. The book is controversial and will engender some lively debate on the various issues raised.

UMA TEORÍA CAUSAL PARA LOS CASOS FREGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ABEL WAJNERMAN PAZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Fodor ha argumentado a favor de un par de tesis que pueden caracterizarse como constituyendo un dilema: Por un lado, si adoptamos una teoría funcional para los conceptos explicamos semánticamente los casos Frege pero caemos en el holismo semántico. Por otro lado, si adoptamos una teoría causal/informacional evitamos el holismo pero no explicamos los casos Frege semánticamente. Fodor (por ej, 1994, 1998 y 2008 intenta evitar la segunda parte del dilema argumentando que los casos de Frege pueden tener una explicación sintáctica y no semántica. En este trabajo intentaré ofrecer una salida alternativa al dilema fodoriano. Propondré una explicación semántica de los casos Frege que incorpora tanto elementos de una teoría causal como de una de rol funcional. Afirmaré que el contenido cognitivo o estrecho de un concepto (el tipo de contenido aparentemente exigido por los casos Frege es el conjunto de contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones que figuran en su rol funcional. Considero que individuar a las representaciones en los roles por medio de sus contenidos causales permite evitar el holismo (evitando el proceso de ramsificación típicamente empleado para individuar a los roles y que identificar el contenido cognitivo con contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones en los roles permite evitar el referencialismo de las propuestas causales (podemos distinguir sentido de referencia en términos causales.

Human Papilloma Viruses and Breast Cancer - Assessment of Causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, James Sutherland; Glenn, Wendy K; Whitaker, Noel James

2016-01-01

High risk human papilloma viruses (HPVs) may have a causal role in some breast cancers. Case-control studies, conducted in many different countries, consistently indicate that HPVs are more frequently present in breast cancers as compared to benign breast and normal breast controls (odds ratio 4.02). The assessment of causality of HPVs in breast cancer is difficult because (i) the HPV viral load is extremely low, (ii) HPV infections are common but HPV associated breast cancers are uncommon, and (iii) HPV infections may precede the development of breast and other cancers by years or even decades. Further, HPV oncogenesis can be indirect. Despite these difficulties, the emergence of new evidence has made the assessment of HPV causality, in breast cancer, a practical proposition. With one exception, the evidence meets all the conventional criteria for a causal role of HPVs in breast cancer. The exception is "specificity." HPVs are ubiquitous, which is the exact opposite of specificity. An additional reservation is that the prevalence of breast cancer is not increased in immunocompromised patients as is the case with respect to HPV-associated cervical cancer. This indicates that HPVs may have an indirect causal influence in breast cancer. Based on the overall evidence, high-risk HPVs may have a causal role in some breast cancers.

Causality and analyticity in optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nussenzveig, H.M.

In order to provide an overall picture of the broad range of optical phenomena that are directly linked with the concepts of causality and analyticity, the following topics are briefly reviewed, emphasizing recent developments: 1) Derivation of dispersion relations for the optical constants of general linear media from causality. Application to the theory of natural optical activity. 2) Derivation of sum rules for the optical constants from causality and from the short-time response function (asymptotic high-frequency behavior). Average spectral behavior of optical media. Applications. 3) Role of spectral conditions. Analytic properties of coherence functions in quantum optics. Reconstruction theorem.4) Phase retrieval problems. 5) Inverse scattering problems. 6) Solution of nonlinear evolution equations in optics by inverse scattering methods. Application to self-induced transparency. Causality in nonlinear wave propagation. 7) Analytic continuation in frequency and angular momentum. Complex singularities. Resonances and natural-mode expansions. Regge poles. 8) Wigner's causal inequality. Time delay. Spatial displacements in total reflection. 9) Analyticity in diffraction theory. Complex angular momentum theory of Mie scattering. Diffraction as a barrier tunnelling effect. Complex trajectories in optics. (Author) [pt

The role of causal maps in intellectual capital measurement and management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Montemari, Marco; Nielsen, Christian

2013-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the measurement and the management of the dynamic aspects of intellectual capital through the use of causal mapping. Design/methodology/approach – The study details the methods utilized in a single in-depth case study of a network-based business...... of the lag and the persistence of the effects of managerial actions. In addition, it can signal when and how to refine and update the causal map. The combination of these factors supports the dynamic measurement and management of intellectual capital. Research limitations/implications – The paper presented...... the causal mapping approach into practice. Practical implications – The paper highlights the need to build causal maps to enhance the measurement and management of intellectual capital, which is dynamic of nature. As a consequence, this tool can be useful for companies to monitor their intangibles...

The causal structure of utility conditionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Stensrud, Mats Julius; Strohmaier, Susanne; Valberg, Morten; Aalen, Odd Olai

2017-04-01

The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

2015-01-01

The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how...... causal effects might vary over individuals or groups. In this paper we point out one of the under-appreciated hazards of seeking to estimate heterogeneous causal effects: conventional selection bias (that is, selection on baseline differences) can easily be mistaken for heterogeneity of causal effects....... This might lead us to find heterogeneous effects when the true effect is homogenous, or to wrongly estimate not only the magnitude but also the sign of heterogeneous effects. We apply a test for the robustness of heterogeneous causal effects in the face of varying degrees and patterns of selection bias...

Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

2012-11-01

Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Papilloma Viruses and Breast Cancer – Assessment of Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, James Sutherland; Glenn, Wendy K.; Whitaker, Noel James

2016-01-01

High risk human papilloma viruses (HPVs) may have a causal role in some breast cancers. Case–control studies, conducted in many different countries, consistently indicate that HPVs are more frequently present in breast cancers as compared to benign breast and normal breast controls (odds ratio 4.02). The assessment of causality of HPVs in breast cancer is difficult because (i) the HPV viral load is extremely low, (ii) HPV infections are common but HPV associated breast cancers are uncommon, and (iii) HPV infections may precede the development of breast and other cancers by years or even decades. Further, HPV oncogenesis can be indirect. Despite these difficulties, the emergence of new evidence has made the assessment of HPV causality, in breast cancer, a practical proposition. With one exception, the evidence meets all the conventional criteria for a causal role of HPVs in breast cancer. The exception is “specificity.” HPVs are ubiquitous, which is the exact opposite of specificity. An additional reservation is that the prevalence of breast cancer is not increased in immunocompromised patients as is the case with respect to HPV-associated cervical cancer. This indicates that HPVs may have an indirect causal influence in breast cancer. Based on the overall evidence, high-risk HPVs may have a causal role in some breast cancers. PMID:27747193

Causal Mediation in Educational Research: An Illustration Using International Assessment Data

Science.gov (United States)

Caro, Daniel H.

2015-01-01

This paper applies the causal mediation framework proposed by Kosuke Imai and colleagues (Imai, Keele, & Tingley, 2010) to educational research by examining the causal mediating role of early literacy activities in parental education influences on reading performance. The paper argues that the study of causal mediation is particularly relevant…

Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

Science.gov (United States)

Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

2010-09-01

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

The causal role of breakfast in energy balance and health: a randomized controlled trial in obese adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Enhad A; Richardson, Judith D; Holman, Geoffrey D; Tsintzas, Kostas; Thompson, Dylan; Betts, James A

2016-03-01

The causal nature of associations between breakfast and health remain unclear in obese individuals. We sought to conduct a randomized controlled trial to examine causal links between breakfast habits and components of energy balance in free-living obese humans. The Bath Breakfast Project is a randomized controlled trial with repeated measures at baseline and follow-up among a cohort in South West England aged 21-60 y with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-derived fat mass indexes of ≥13 kg/m(2) for women (n = 15) and ≥9 kg/m(2) for men (n = 8). Components of energy balance (resting metabolic rate, physical activity thermogenesis, diet-induced thermogenesis, and energy intake) were measured under free-living conditions with random allocation to daily breakfast (≥700 kcal before 1100) or extended fasting (0 kcal until 1200) for 6 wk, with baseline and follow-up measures of health markers (e.g., hematology/adipose biopsies). Breakfast resulted in greater physical activity thermogenesis during the morning than when fasting during that period (difference: 188 kcal/d; 95% CI: 40, 335) but without any consistent effect on 24-h physical activity thermogenesis (difference: 272 kcal/d; 95% CI: -254, 798). Energy intake was not significantly greater with breakfast than fasting (difference: 338 kcal/d; 95% CI: -313, 988). Body mass increased across both groups over time but with no treatment effects on body composition or any change in resting metabolic rate (stable within 8 kcal/d). Metabolic/cardiovascular health also did not respond to treatments, except for a reduced insulinemic response to an oral-glucose-tolerance test over time with daily breakfast relative to an increase with daily fasting (P = 0.05). In obese adults, daily breakfast leads to greater physical activity during the morning, whereas morning fasting results in partial dietary compensation (i.e., greater energy intake) later in the day. There were no differences between groups in weight change and most

Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Pearl, Judea

2000-03-01

Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

Causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events

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Pieter Moors

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Philosophers have long argued that causality cannot be directly observed but requires a conscious inference (Hume, 1967. Albert Michotte however developed numerous visual phenomena in which people seemed to perceive causality akin to primary visual properties like colour or motion (Michotte, 1946. Michotte claimed that the perception of causality did not require a conscious, deliberate inference but, working over 70 years ago, he did not have access to the experimental methods to test this claim. Here we employ Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS—an interocular suppression technique to render stimuli invisible (Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005—to test whether causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events. We presented observers with ‘causal’ and ‘non-causal’ events, and found consistent evidence that participants become aware of causal events more rapidly than non-causal events. Our results suggest that, whilst causality must be inferred from sensory evidence, this inference might be computed at low levels of perceptual processing, and does not depend on a deliberative conscious evaluation of the stimulus. This work therefore supports Michotte’s contention that, like colour or motion, causality is an immediate property of our perception of the world.

Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

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Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

2015-07-01

Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

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Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

Preschoolers prefer to learn causal information

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Aubry eAlvarez

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Young children, in general, appear to have a strong drive to explore the environment in ways that reveal its underlying causal structure. But are they really attuned specifically to casual information in this quest for understanding, or do they show equal interest in other types of non-obvious information about the world? To answer this question, we introduced 20 three-year-old children to two puppets who were anxious to tell the child about a set of novel artifacts and animals. One puppet consistently described causal properties of the items while the other puppet consistently described carefully matched non-causal properties of the same items. After a familiarization period in which children learned which type of information to expect from each informant, children were given the opportunity to choose which they wanted to hear describe each of eight pictured test items. On average, children chose to hear from the informant that provided causal descriptions on 72% of the trials. This preference for causal information has important implications for explaining the role of conceptual information in supporting early learning and may suggest means for maximizing interest and motivation in young children.

Theories of Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Robert

2010-03-01

There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

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Božidar Tepeš

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

Science.gov (United States)

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

Neural correlates of continuous causal word generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wende, Kim C; Straube, Benjamin; Stratmann, Mirjam; Sommer, Jens; Kircher, Tilo; Nagels, Arne

2012-09-01

Causality provides a natural structure for organizing our experience and language. Causal reasoning during speech production is a distinct aspect of verbal communication, whose related brain processes are yet unknown. The aim of the current study was to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the continuous generation of cause-and-effect coherences during overt word production. During fMRI data acquisition participants performed three verbal fluency tasks on identical cue words: A novel causal verbal fluency task (CVF), requiring the production of multiple reasons to a given cue word (e.g. reasons for heat are fire, sun etc.), a semantic (free association, FA, e.g. associations with heat are sweat, shower etc.) and a phonological control task (phonological verbal fluency, PVF, e.g. rhymes with heat are meat, wheat etc.). We found that, in contrast to PVF, both CVF and FA activated a left lateralized network encompassing inferior frontal, inferior parietal and angular regions, with further bilateral activation in middle and inferior as well as superior temporal gyri and the cerebellum. For CVF contrasted against FA, we found greater bold responses only in the left middle frontal cortex. Large overlaps in the neural activations during free association and causal verbal fluency indicate that the access to causal relationships between verbal concepts is at least partly based on the semantic neural network. The selective activation in the left middle frontal cortex for causal verbal fluency suggests that distinct neural processes related to cause-and-effect-relations are associated with the recruitment of middle frontal brain areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal boundary for stably causal space-times

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Racz, I.

1987-12-01

The usual boundary constructions for space-times often yield an unsatisfactory boundary set. This problem is reviewed and a new solution is proposed. An explicit identification rule is given on the set of the ideal points of the space-time. This construction leads to a satisfactory boundary point set structure for stably causal space-times. The topological properties of the resulting causal boundary construction are examined. For the stably causal space-times each causal curve has a unique endpoint on the boundary set according to the extended Alexandrov topology. The extension of the space-time through the boundary is discussed. To describe the singularities the defined boundary sets have to be separated into two disjoint sets. (D.Gy.) 8 refs

Property transmission: an explanatory account of the role of similarity information in causal inference.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Peter A

2009-09-01

Many kinds of common and easily observed causal relations exhibit property transmission, which is a tendency for the causal object to impose its own properties on the effect object. It is proposed that property transmission becomes a general and readily available hypothesis used to make interpretations and judgments about causal questions under conditions of uncertainty, in which property transmission functions as a heuristic. The property transmission hypothesis explains why and when similarity information is used in causal inference. It can account for magical contagion beliefs, some cases of illusory correlation, the correspondence bias, overestimation of cross-situational consistency in behavior, nonregressive tendencies in prediction, the belief that acts of will are causes of behavior, and a range of other phenomena. People learn that property transmission is often moderated by other factors, but under conditions of uncertainty in which the operation of relevant other factors is unknown, it tends to exhibit a pervasive influence on thinking about causality. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Causal universe

CERN Document Server

Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

2013-01-01

Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

Arsenic metabolism efficiency has a causal role in arsenic toxicity: Mendelian randomization and gene-environment interaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Brandon L; Tong, Lin; Argos, Maria; Gao, Jianjun; Farzana, Jasmine; Roy, Shantanu; Paul-Brutus, Rachelle; Rahaman, Ronald; Rakibuz-Zaman, Muhammad; Parvez, Faruque; Ahmed, Alauddin; Quasem, Iftekhar; Hore, Samar K; Alam, Shafiul; Islam, Tariqul; Harjes, Judith; Sarwar, Golam; Slavkovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary V; Chen, Yu; Yunus, Mohammad; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Baron, John A; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-12-01

Arsenic exposure through drinking water is a serious global health issue. Observational studies suggest that individuals who metabolize arsenic efficiently are at lower risk for toxicities such as arsenical skin lesions. Using two single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs) in the 10q24.32 region (near AS3MT) that show independent associations with metabolism efficiency, Mendelian randomization can be used to assess whether the association between metabolism efficiency and skin lesions is likely to be causal. Using data on 2060 arsenic-exposed Bangladeshi individuals, we estimated associations for two 10q24.32 SNPs with relative concentrations of three urinary arsenic species (representing metabolism efficiency): inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonic acid(MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA). SNP-based predictions of iAs%, MMA% and DMA% were tested for association with skin lesion status among 2483 cases and 2857 controls. Causal odds ratios for skin lesions were 0.90 (95% confidence interval[CI]: 0.87, 0.95), 1.19 (CI: 1.10, 1.28) and 1.23 (CI: 1.12, 1.36)for a one standard deviation increase in DMA%, MMA% and iAs%,respectively. We demonstrated genotype-arsenic interaction, with metabolism-related variants showing stronger associations with skin lesion risk among individuals with high arsenic exposure (synergy index: 1.37; CI: 1.11, 1.62). We provide strong evidence for a causal relationship between arsenic metabolism efficiency and skin lesion risk. Mendelian randomization can be used to assess the causal role of arsenic exposure and metabolism in a wide array of health conditions.exposure and metabolism in a wide array of health conditions.Developing interventions that increase arsenic metabolism efficiency are likely to reduce the impact of arsenic exposure on health.

Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

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Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

2015-01-01

Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

Cultural diversity in causal attributions for illness: the role of the supernatural.

Science.gov (United States)

Landrine, H; Klonoff, E A

1994-04-01

We investigated cultural diversity in beliefs about the causes of illness and assessed the possibility that popular free-form methodologies (asking subjects to generate causes) inhibit minorities from expressing their belief in supernatural causes. As predicted, when asked to generate causes of illness and rate these in terms of their importance, whites and minorities did not differ in the number or type (natural vs supernatural) of causes they generated or in the importance rating they assigned to these. However, when these same subjects were provided with natural and supernatural causes to rate in terms of importance, minorities rated supernatural causes significantly more important than did whites, and more minorities than whites endorsed such causes. Cultural differences in causal attributions for illness are examined, and the role of methodology in determining such attributions is highlighted.

Causal role of prefrontal cortex in the threshold for access to consciousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Cul, A; Dehaene, S; Reyes, P; Bravo, E; Slachevsky, A

2009-09-01

What neural mechanisms support our conscious perception of briefly presented stimuli? Some theories of conscious access postulate a key role of top-down amplification loops involving prefrontal cortex (PFC). To test this issue, we measured the visual backward masking threshold in patients with focal prefrontal lesions, using both objective and subjective measures while controlling for putative attention deficits. In all conditions of temporal or spatial attention cueing, the threshold for access to consciousness was systematically shifted in patients, particular after a lesion of the left anterior PFC. The deficit affected subjective reports more than objective performance, and objective performance conditioned on subjective visibility was essentially normal. We conclude that PFC makes a causal contribution to conscious visual perception of masked stimuli, and outline a dual-route signal detection theory of objective and subjective decision making.

Causal relationship: a new tool for the causal characterization of Lorentzian manifolds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Senovilla, Jose M M

2003-01-01

We define and study a new kind of relation between two diffeomorphic Lorentzian manifolds called a causal relation, which is any diffeomorphism characterized by mapping every causal vector of the first manifold onto a causal vector of the second. We perform a thorough study of the mathematical properties of causal relations and prove in particular that two given Lorentzian manifolds (say V and W) may be causally related only in one direction (say from V to W, but not from W to V). This leads us to the concept of causally equivalent (or isocausal in short) Lorentzian manifolds as those mutually causally related and to a definition of causal structure over a differentiable manifold as the equivalence class formed by isocausal Lorentzian metrics upon it. Isocausality is a more general concept than the conformal relationship, because we prove the remarkable result that a conformal relation φ is characterized by the fact of being a causal relation of the particular kind in which both φ and φ -1 are causal relations. Isocausal Lorentzian manifolds are mutually causally compatible, they share some important causal properties, and there are one-to-one correspondences, which are sometimes non-trivial, between several classes of their respective future (and past) objects. A more important feature is that they satisfy the same standard causality constraints. We also introduce a partial order for the equivalence classes of isocausal Lorentzian manifolds providing a classification of all the causal structures that a given fixed manifold can have. By introducing the concept of causal extension we put forward a new definition of causal boundary for Lorentzian manifolds based on the concept of isocausality, and thereby we generalize the traditional Penrose constructions of conformal infinity, diagrams and embeddings. In particular, the concept of causal diagram is given. Many explicit clarifying examples are presented throughout the paper

Tachyon kinematics and causality: a systematic thorough analysis of the tachyon causal paradoxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recami, E.

1987-01-01

The chronological order of the events along a spacelike path is not invariant under Lorentz transformations, as is well known. This led to an early conviction that tachyons would give rise to causal anomalies. A relativistic version of the Stueckelberg-Feynman switching procedure (SWP) has been invoked as the suitable tool to eliminate those anomalies. The application of the SWP does eliminate the motions backwards in time, but interchanges the roles of source and detector. This fact triggered the proposal of a host of causal paradoxes. Till now, however, it has not been recognized that such paradoxes can be sensibly discussed (and completely solved, at least in microphysics) only after the tachyon relativistic mechanics has been properly developed. They start by showing how to apply the SWP, both in the case of ordinary special relativity and in the case with tachyons. Then they carefully exploit the kinetics of the tachyon exchange between two (ordinary) bodies. Being finally able to tackle the tachyon causality problem, they successively solve the paradoxes of: (i) Tolman-Regge, (ii) Pirani, (iii) Edmonds, and (iv) Bell. Finally, they discuss a further, new paradox associated with the transmission of signals by modulated tachyon beams

Opening the Black Box and Searching for Smoking Guns: Process Causality in Qualitative Research

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Elisabeth E.; McWhorter, Rochell R.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of qualitative research in causality, with particular emphasis on process causality. In one paper, it is not possible to discuss all the issues of causality, but the aim is to provide useful ways of thinking about causality and qualitative research. Specifically, a brief overview of the…

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-01-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-07-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

Causality in Science

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Cristina Puente Águeda

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

2008-01-01

Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

P3-10: Crossmodal Perceptual Grouping Modulates Subjective Causality between Action and Outcome

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Takahiro Kawabe

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Agents have to determine which external events their action has causally produced. A sensation of causal relation between action and outcome is called subjective causality. Subjective causality has been linked to the comparator model. This model assumes that the brain compares an internal prediction for action outcome with an actual sensory outcome, distinguishing between self and externally produced outcomes depending on spatiotemporal congruency. However, recent studies have expressed some doubt about the idea that subjective causality arises depending solely on the spatiotemporal congruency, suggesting instead that other perceptual/cognitive factors play a critical role in determining subjective causality. We hypothesized that crossmodal grouping between action and outcome contributed to subjective causality. Crossmodal temporal grouping is an essential factor for crossmodal simultaneity judgments with ungrouped crossmodal signals likely to be judged as non-simultaneous. We predicted that subjective causality would decrease when an agent's action was not temporally grouped with action outcome. In the experiment, observers were asked to press a key in order to trigger a display change with some temporal delay. To disrupt temporal grouping between action and outcome, a task-irrelevant visual flash or tone was sometimes presented synchronously with the button press and/or the display change. Subjective causality was decreased when the flash or the tone was coincided with the button press. This demonstrates that perceptual grouping has a key role in determination of subjective causality, a result that is not accounted for by the standard comparator model.

A theory of causal learning in children: causal maps and Bayes nets.

Science.gov (United States)

Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M; Schulz, Laura E; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computations similar to those for learning causal Bayes nets and for predicting with them. Experimental results suggest that 2- to 4-year-old children construct new causal maps and that their learning is consistent with the Bayes net formalism.

A theory of causal learning in children: Causal maps and Bayes nets

OpenAIRE

Gopnik, A; Glymour, C; Sobel, D M; Schulz, L E; Kushnir, T; Danks, D

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computatio...

Repeated causal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling of causality with metamaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smolyaninov, Igor I

2013-01-01

Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space–time. While this model may be used to build interesting space–time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler–Feynman absorber theory of causality. (paper)

Causal ubiquity in quantum physics a superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

CERN Document Server

Neelamkavil, Raphael

2014-01-01

A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly non-causal processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the non-causal. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That

Non-Causal Computation

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Ämin Baumeler

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Computation models such as circuits describe sequences of computation steps that are carried out one after the other. In other words, algorithm design is traditionally subject to the restriction imposed by a fixed causal order. We address a novel computing paradigm beyond quantum computing, replacing this assumption by mere logical consistency: We study non-causal circuits, where a fixed time structure within a gate is locally assumed whilst the global causal structure between the gates is dropped. We present examples of logically consistent non-causal circuits outperforming all causal ones; they imply that suppressing loops entirely is more restrictive than just avoiding the contradictions they can give rise to. That fact is already known for correlations as well as for communication, and we here extend it to computation.

Causality re-established.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

2018-07-13

Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Sanchez, Miguel

2005-01-01

Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R 2 (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries

A quantum causal discovery algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

2018-03-01

Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

Epidemiological causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Morabia, Alfredo

2005-01-01

Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

Discrete causal theory emergent spacetime and the causal metric hypothesis

CERN Document Server

Dribus, Benjamin F

2017-01-01

This book evaluates and suggests potentially critical improvements to causal set theory, one of the best-motivated approaches to the outstanding problems of fundamental physics. Spacetime structure is of central importance to physics beyond general relativity and the standard model. The causal metric hypothesis treats causal relations as the basis of this structure. The book develops the consequences of this hypothesis under the assumption of a fundamental scale, with smooth spacetime geometry viewed as emergent. This approach resembles causal set theory, but differs in important ways; for example, the relative viewpoint, emphasizing relations between pairs of events, and relationships between pairs of histories, is central. The book culminates in a dynamical law for quantum spacetime, derived via generalized path summation.

Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

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Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

Investigating the Causal Role of rOFA in Holistic Detection of Mooney Faces and Objects: An fMRI-guided TMS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bona, Silvia; Cattaneo, Zaira; Silvanto, Juha

2016-01-01

The right occipital face area (rOFA) is known to be involved in face discrimination based on local featural information. Whether this region is also involved in global, holistic stimulus processing is not known. We used fMRI-guided transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to investigate whether rOFA is causally implicated in stimulus detection based on holistic processing, by the use of Mooney stimuli. Two studies were carried out: In Experiment 1, participants performed a detection task involving Mooney faces and Mooney objects; Mooney stimuli lack distinguishable local features and can be detected solely via holistic processing (i.e. at a global level) with top-down guidance from previously stored representations. Experiment 2 required participants to detect shapes which are recognized via bottom-up integration of local (collinear) Gabor elements and was performed to control for specificity of rOFA's implication in holistic detection. In Experiment 1, TMS over rOFA and rLO impaired detection of all stimulus categories, with no category-specific effect. In Experiment 2, shape detection was impaired when TMS was applied over rLO but not over rOFA. Our results demonstrate that rOFA is causally implicated in the type of top-down holistic detection required by Mooney stimuli and that such role is not face-selective. In contrast, rOFA does not appear to play a causal role in detection of shapes based on bottom-up integration of local components, demonstrating that its involvement in processing non-face stimuli is specific for holistic processing. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Paulo; Holbrook, Colin; Swiney, Lauren

2015-01-01

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency. PMID:26441755

On the entanglement entropy of quantum fields in causal sets

Science.gov (United States)

Belenchia, Alessio; Benincasa, Dionigi M. T.; Letizia, Marco; Liberati, Stefano

2018-04-01

In order to understand the detailed mechanism by which a fundamental discreteness can provide a finite entanglement entropy, we consider the entanglement entropy of two classes of free massless scalar fields on causal sets that are well approximated by causal diamonds in Minkowski spacetime of dimensions 2, 3 and 4. The first class is defined from discretised versions of the continuum retarded Green functions, while the second uses the causal set’s retarded nonlocal d’Alembertians parametrised by a length scale l k . In both cases we provide numerical evidence that the area law is recovered when the double-cutoff prescription proposed in Sorkin and Yazdi (2016 Entanglement entropy in causal set theory (arXiv:1611.10281)) is imposed. We discuss in detail the need for this double cutoff by studying the effect of two cutoffs on the quantum field and, in particular, on the entanglement entropy, in isolation. In so doing, we get a novel interpretation for why these two cutoff are necessary, and the different roles they play in making the entanglement entropy on causal sets finite.

Exploring a causal role of DNA methylation in the relationship between maternal vitamin B12 during pregnancy and child's IQ at age 8, cognitive performance and educational attainment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Caramaschi, Doretta; Sharp, Gemma C; Nohr, Ellen A

2017-01-01

An adequate intake of vitamin B12 during pregnancy plays an important role in offspring neurodevelopment, potentially via epigenetic processes. We used a two-step Mendelian randomization approach to assess whether DNA methylation plays a mediating and causal role in associations between maternal...

Causal Learning in Gambling Disorder: Beyond the Illusion of Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Perales, José C; Navas, Juan F; Ruiz de Lara, Cristian M; Maldonado, Antonio; Catena, Andrés

2017-06-01

Causal learning is the ability to progressively incorporate raw information about dependencies between events, or between one's behavior and its outcomes, into beliefs of the causal structure of the world. In spite of the fact that some cognitive biases in gambling disorder can be described as alterations of causal learning involving gambling-relevant cues, behaviors, and outcomes, general causal learning mechanisms in gamblers have not been systematically investigated. In the present study, we compared gambling disorder patients against controls in an instrumental causal learning task. Evidence of illusion of control, namely, overestimation of the relationship between one's behavior and an uncorrelated outcome, showed up only in gamblers with strong current symptoms. Interestingly, this effect was part of a more complex pattern, in which gambling disorder patients manifested a poorer ability to discriminate between null and positive contingencies. Additionally, anomalies were related to gambling severity and current gambling disorder symptoms. Gambling-related biases, as measured by a standard psychometric tool, correlated with performance in the causal learning task, but not in the expected direction. Indeed, performance of gamblers with stronger biases tended to resemble the one of controls, which could imply that anomalies of causal learning processes play a role in gambling disorder, but do not seem to underlie gambling-specific biases, at least in a simple, direct way.

Domain-specific perceptual causality in children depends on the spatio-temporal configuration, not motion onset

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne eSchlottmann

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Humans, even babies, perceive causality when one shape moves briefly and linearly after another. Motion timing is crucial in this and causal impressions disappear with short delays between motions. However, the role of temporal information is more complex: It is both a cue to causality and a factor that constrains processing. It affects ability to distinguish causality from non-causality, and social from mechanical causality. Here we study both issues with 3- to 7-year-olds and adults who saw two computer-animated squares and chose if a picture of mechanical, social or non-causality fit each event best. Prior work fit with the standard view that early in development, the distinction between the social and physical domains depends mainly on whether or not the agents make contact, and that this reflects concern with domain-specific motion onset, in particular, whether the motion is self-initiated or not. The present experiments challenge both parts of this position. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that not just spatial, but also animacy and temporal information affect how children distinguish between physical and social causality. In Experiments 3 and 4 we showed that children do not seem to use spatio-temporal information in perceptual causality to make inferences about self- or other-initiated motion onset. Overall, spatial contact may be developmentally primary in domain-specific perceptual causality in that it is processed easily and is dominant over competing cues, but it is not the only cue used early on and it is not used to infer motion onset. Instead, domain-specific causal impressions may be automatic reactions to specific perceptual configurations, with a complex role for temporal information.

A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

Science.gov (United States)

Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

2004-01-01

The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Lemeire

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

Islamic vs. Conventional Banking Role in Non-Oil Growth: A Causal Analysis in the Case of Bahrain

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Abdallah Belhadia

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the type of relationship between Islamic vs. Conventional banking and non-Oil economic growth in the case of Bahrain by using annual data 1990-2012 retrieved from Islamic banks and financial institutions information (Ibis-Online of the Islamic Bank of Development (IDB, World Bank development indicators (WB, and the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB annual reports.This study employs the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM as well as Vector Autoregressive model (VAR to reveal the long run and short-run causality between the dual banking development and non-Oil GDP growth. The VECM results of the conventional banking show that there is long-run bidirectional causality between all the conventional banking selected indicators and the non-Oil GDP. For the Islamic banking VAR model, there is a unidirectional causality from Islamic banking indicators to the non-oil GDP. There is no evidence on the role of non-oil GDP on the Islamic banking development. Impulse response functions in the two models shows that through one standards deviation positive shock in Islamic vs. Conventional Credit provided to private sector, the non-Oil GDP will be much higher in the next five years if we stimulate the Islamic credit provided to private sector than the conventional banks.Moreover, the Islamic credit provided to the private sector appears to be more procyclical than the credit provided by the conventional banks. However, the fluctuations in the conventional credit are sharper than the Islamic banks’ private credit. This study provides the policy makers in Bahrain with the appropriate evidences to design their policies in fostering the non-Oil sector.

Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

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Denise Dellarosa Cummins

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

Causal boundary for strongly causal spacetimes: Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabados, L.B.

1989-01-01

In a previous paper an analysis of the general structure of the causal boundary constructions and a new explicit identification rule, built up from elementary TIP-TIF gluings, were presented. In the present paper we complete our identification by incorporating TIP-TIP and TIF-TIF gluings as well. An asymptotic causality condition is found which, for physically important cases, ensures the uniqueness of the endpoints of the non-spacelike curves in the completed spacetime. (author)

Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

Science.gov (United States)

Markus, Keith A.

2010-01-01

One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

Causality discovery technology

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

2012-11-01

Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

Reasoning with Causal Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Bob

2017-01-01

This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

Perceiving and Confronting Sexism: The Causal Role of Gender Identity Salience.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Katie; Dovidio, John F

2017-03-01

Although many researchers have explored the relations among gender identification, discriminatory attributions, and intentions to challenge discrimination, few have examined the causal impact of gender identity salience on women's actual responses to a sexist encounter. In the current study, we addressed this question by experimentally manipulating the salience of gender identity and assessing its impact on women's decision to confront a sexist comment in a simulated online interaction. Female participants ( N = 114) were randomly assigned to complete a short measure of either personal or collective self-esteem, which was designed to increase the salience of personal versus gender identity. They were then given the opportunity to confront a male interaction partner who expressed sexist views. Compared to those who were primed to focus on their personal identity, participants who were primed to focus on their gender identity perceived the interaction partner's remarks as more sexist and were more likely to engage in confrontation. By highlighting the powerful role of subtle contextual cues in shaping women's perceptions of, and responses to, sexism, our findings have important implications for the understanding of gender identity salience as an antecedent of prejudice confrontation. Online slides for instructors who want to use this article for teaching are available on PWQ's website at http://journals.sagepub.com/page/pwq/suppl/index.

Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2005-01-01

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

2014-01-01

of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...

Pharmacological inactivation does not support a unique causal role for intraparietal sulcus in the discrimination of visual number.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas K DeWind

Full Text Available The "number sense" describes the intuitive ability to quantify without counting. Single neuron recordings in non-human primates and functional imaging in humans suggest the intraparietal sulcus is an important neuroanatomical locus of numerical estimation. Other lines of inquiry implicate the IPS in numerous other functions, including attention and decision making. Here we provide a direct test of whether IPS has functional specificity for numerosity judgments. We used muscimol to reversibly and independently inactivate the ventral and lateral intraparietal areas in two monkeys performing a numerical discrimination task and a color discrimination task, roughly equilibrated for difficulty. Inactivation of either area caused parallel impairments in both tasks and no evidence of a selective deficit in numerical processing. These findings do not support a causal role for the IPS in numerical discrimination, except insofar as it also has a role in the discrimination of color. We discuss our findings in light of several alternative hypotheses of IPS function, including a role in orienting responses, a general cognitive role in attention and decision making processes and a more specific role in ordinal comparison that encompasses both number and color judgments.

Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikulecky, Donald C

2007-10-01

Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

Causality in Europeanization Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lynggaard, Kennet

2012-01-01

to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

Of arrows and flows. Causality, determination, and specificity in the Central Dogma of molecular biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Fantini, Bernardino

2006-01-01

From its first proposal, the Central Dogma had a graphical form, complete with arrows of different types, and this form quickly became its standard presentation. In different scientific contexts, arrows have different meanings and in this particular case the arrows indicated the flow of information among different macromolecules. A deeper analysis illustrates that the arrows also imply a causal statement, directly connected to the causal role of genetic information. The author suggests a distinction between two different kinds of causal links, defined as 'physical causality' and 'biological determination', both implied in the production of biological specificity.

THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

The psychophysics of comic: Effects of incongruity in causality and animacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Parovel, Giulia; Guidi, Stefano

2015-07-01

According to several theories of humour (see Berger, 2012; Martin, 2007), incongruity - i.e., the presence of two incompatible meanings in the same situation - is a crucial condition for an event being evaluated as comical. The aim of this research was to test with psychophysical methods the role of incongruity in visual perception by manipulating the causal paradigm (Michotte, 1946/1963) to get a comic effect. We ran three experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the role of speed ratio between the first and the second movement, and the effect of animacy cues (i.e. frog-like and jumping-like trajectories) in the second movement; in Experiment 2, we manipulated the temporal delay between the movements to explore the relationship between perceptual causal contingencies and comic impressions; in Experiment 3, we compared the strength of the comic impressions arising from incongruent trajectories based on animacy cues with those arising from incongruent trajectories not based on animacy cues (bouncing and rotating) in the second part of the causal event. General findings showed that the paradoxical juxtaposition of a living behaviour in the perceptual causal paradigm is a powerful factor in eliciting comic appreciations, coherently with the Bergsonian perspective in particular (Bergson, 2003), and with incongruity theories in general. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causality and headache triggers

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Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

2013-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

Viscous causal cosmologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novello, M.; Salim, J.M.; Torres, J.; Oliveira, H.P. de

1989-01-01

A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author) [pt

Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

2018-01-01

It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

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Höfler M

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

Monetary policy and the causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gatot Sasongko

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Conceptually and empirically, inflation volatility in Indonesia is a monetary and fiscal phenomenon. This study focuses on the macroeconomic policy and public policy especially causality between two variables namely inflation and money supply in Indonesia. This study uses Indonesian macroeconomic data of inflation and money supply from the Bank of Indonesia publication during 2007.1–2017.7. Inflation is measured by the consumer price index, reflects the annual percentage change in costs of acquiring a basket of goods and services to the average consumers that may change at specified intervals. Meanwhile, money supply is measured by the currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and saving deposits. Methodically, this study uses the Granger Causality model to determine the causality between inflation and money supply. The results show that there is a one-way causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia. These findings imply that money supply causes inflation, but not vice versa. This condition implies that the role of Indonesian Government and Bank of Indonesia were very crucial in managing and controlling macroeconomic policy and public policy. Then, analysis of money supply and inflation also related to impacting factors such as money laundering, role of banks, taxation, tax evasion, and corruption.

The argumentative impact of causal relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

1996-01-01

such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

Entropy for theories with indefinite causal structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markes, Sonia; Hardy, Lucien

2011-01-01

Any theory with definite causal structure has a defined past and future, be it defined by light cones or an absolute time scale. Entropy is a concept that has traditionally been reliant on a definite notion of causality. However, without a definite notion of causality, the concept of entropy is not all lost. Indefinite causal structure results from combining probabilistic predictions and dynamical space-time. The causaloid framework lays the mathematical groundwork to be able to treat indefinite causal structure. In this paper, we build on the causaloid mathematics and define a causally-unbiased entropy for an indefinite causal structure. In defining a causally-unbiased entropy, there comes about an emergent idea of causality in the form of a measure of causal connectedness, termed the Q factor.

Defining the Locus of Developmental Differences in Children's Causal Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Siegler, Robert S.

1975-01-01

Five experiments were performed in the area of children's causal reasoning to validate a previously reported developmental difference, to examine the role of a possible mediating mechanism, and to test a number of competing theoretical interpretations. (GO)

Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Castro-Ruiz

2018-03-01

Full Text Available It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B. Here, we develop a framework for “dynamics of causal structures,” i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B, via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A. We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

Perceiving and Confronting Sexism: The Causal Role of Gender Identity Salience

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Katie; Dovidio, John F.

2017-01-01

Although many researchers have explored the relations among gender identification, discriminatory attributions, and intentions to challenge discrimination, few have examined the causal impact of gender identity salience on women’s actual responses to a sexist encounter. In the current study, we addressed this question by experimentally manipulating the salience of gender identity and assessing its impact on women’s decision to confront a sexist comment in a simulated online interaction. Female participants (N = 114) were randomly assigned to complete a short measure of either personal or collective self-esteem, which was designed to increase the salience of personal versus gender identity. They were then given the opportunity to confront a male interaction partner who expressed sexist views. Compared to those who were primed to focus on their personal identity, participants who were primed to focus on their gender identity perceived the interaction partner’s remarks as more sexist and were more likely to engage in confrontation. By highlighting the powerful role of subtle contextual cues in shaping women’s perceptions of, and responses to, sexism, our findings have important implications for the understanding of gender identity salience as an antecedent of prejudice confrontation. Online slides for instructors who want to use this article for teaching are available on PWQ’s website at http://journals.sagepub.com/page/pwq/suppl/index. PMID:29051685

The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Wensink, Maarten; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Baudisch, Annette

2014-05-01

A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross-disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a "causal pie" of "component causes". Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made.

Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

2013-01-01

Roč. 15, - (2013), s. 12987 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013. 07.04.2013-12.04.2013, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : causality analysis * climate networks Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Putting a cap on causality violations in causal dynamical triangulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambjoern, Jan; Loll, Renate; Westra, Willem; Zohren, Stefan

2007-01-01

The formalism of causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) provides us with a non-perturbatively defined model of quantum gravity, where the sum over histories includes only causal space-time histories. Path integrals of CDT and their continuum limits have been studied in two, three and four dimensions. Here we investigate a generalization of the two-dimensional CDT model, where the causality constraint is partially lifted by introducing branching points with a weight g s , and demonstrate that the system can be solved analytically in the genus-zero sector. The solution is analytic in a neighborhood around weight g s = 0 and cannot be analytically continued to g s = ∞, where the branching is entirely geometric and where one would formally recover standard Euclidean two-dimensional quantum gravity defined via dynamical triangulations or Liouville theory

Causal Role of Motor Simulation in Turn-Taking Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadley, Lauren V; Novembre, Giacomo; Keller, Peter E; Pickering, Martin J

2015-12-16

-time repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation protocol, we provide evidence indicating that the dorsal premotor cortex plays a causal role in accurate turn-taking coordination between a pianist and their observed interaction partner. Given that turn-taking behavior is a fundamental feature of human communication, we suggest that simulation is a foundational mechanism underlying the temporal dynamics of communicative joint action. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3516516-05$15.00/0.

Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

CERN Document Server

Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

2012-01-01

A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

A frequency domain subspace algorithm for mixed causal, anti-causal LTI systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fraanje, Rufus; Verhaegen, Michel; Verdult, Vincent; Pintelon, Rik

2003-01-01

The paper extends the subspacc identification method to estimate state-space models from frequency response function (FRF) samples, proposed by McKelvey et al. (1996) for mixed causal/anti-causal systems, and shows that other frequency domain subspace algorithms can be extended similarly. The method

Big Data, epistemology and causality: Knowledge in and knowledge out in EXPOsOMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Canali

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Recently, it has been argued that the use of Big Data transforms the sciences, making data-driven research possible and studying causality redundant. In this paper, I focus on the claim on causal knowledge by examining the Big Data project EXPOsOMICS, whose research is funded by the European Commission and considered capable of improving our understanding of the relation between exposure and disease. While EXPOsOMICS may seem the perfect exemplification of the data-driven view, I show how causal knowledge is necessary for the project, both as a source for handling complexity and as an output for meeting the project’s goals. Consequently, I argue that data-driven claims about causality are fundamentally flawed and causal knowledge should be considered a necessary aspect of Big Data science. In addition, I present the consequences of this result on other data-driven claims, concerning the role of theoretical considerations. I argue that the importance of causal knowledge and other kinds of theoretical engagement in EXPOsOMICS undermine theory-free accounts and suggest alternative ways of framing science based on Big Data.

The Functions of Danish Causal Conjunctions

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Rita Therkelsen

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In the article I propose an analysis of the Danish causal conjunctions fordi, siden and for based on the framework of Danish Functional Grammar. As conjunctions they relate two clauses, and their semantics have in common that it indicates a causal relationship between the clauses. The causal conjunctions are different as far as their distribution is concerned; siden conjoins a subordinate clause and a main clause, for conjoins two main clauses, and fordi is able to do both. Methodologically I have based my analysis on these distributional properties comparing siden and fordi conjoining a subordinate and a main clause, and comparing for and fordi conjoining two main clauses, following the thesis that they would establish a causal relationship between different kinds of content. My main findings are that fordi establishes a causal relationship between the events referred to by the two clauses, and the whole utterance functions as a statement of this causal relationship. Siden presupposes such a general causal relationship between the two events and puts forward the causing event as a reason for assuming or wishing or ordering the caused event, siden thus establishes a causal relationship between an event and a speech act. For equally presupposes a general causal relationship between two events and it establishes a causal relationship between speech acts, and fordi conjoining two main clauses is able to do this too, but in this position it also maintains its event-relating ability, the interpretation depending on contextual factors.

Investigating Causality Between Agricultural and Economic Growth in Iran

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A. Falsafian

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Although rate of economic growth is not the only way to measure economic development, it is relatively more important than the other indices. Agriculture sector plays the main role on economic growth and sustainable development. In addition, it has significant impact on most social, political and economic issues by producing strategic food products for ever-increasing population. Therefore, the present study investigated causal relationship between agricultural and economic growth in Iran. To this end, the Granjer’s causality test was used after employing the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test to see if the variables under consideration are stationary. The result showed that there is a long learn feedback relationship between these variables and agricultural developments.

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

2018-05-01

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

Feedback Both Helps and Hinders Learning: The Causal Role of Prior Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Fyfe, Emily R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2016-01-01

Feedback can be a powerful learning tool, but its effects vary widely. Research has suggested that learners' prior knowledge may moderate the effects of feedback; however, no causal link has been established. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned elementary school children (N = 108) to a condition based on a crossing of 2 factors: induced strategy…

Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

2013-03-01

Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

On causality of extreme events

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Massimiliano Zanin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

Quasi-experiments to establish causal effects of HIV care and treatment and to improve the cascade of care

Science.gov (United States)

Bor, Jacob; Geldsetzer, Pascal; Venkataramani, Atheendar; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-01-01

Purpose of review Randomized, population-representative trials of clinical interventions are rare. Quasi-experiments have been used successfully to generate causal evidence on the cascade of HIV care in a broad range of real-world settings. Recent findings Quasi-experiments exploit exogenous, or quasi-random, variation occurring naturally in the world or because of an administrative rule or policy change to estimate causal effects. Well designed quasi-experiments have greater internal validity than typical observational research designs. At the same time, quasi-experiments may also have potential for greater external validity than experiments and can be implemented when randomized clinical trials are infeasible or unethical. Quasi-experimental studies have established the causal effects of HIV testing and initiation of antiretroviral therapy on health, economic outcomes and sexual behaviors, as well as indirect effects on other community members. Recent quasi-experiments have evaluated specific interventions to improve patient performance in the cascade of care, providing causal evidence to optimize clinical management of HIV. Summary Quasi-experiments have generated important data on the real-world impacts of HIV testing and treatment and on interventions to improve the cascade of care. With the growth in large-scale clinical and administrative data, quasi-experiments enable rigorous evaluation of policies implemented in real-world settings. PMID:26371463

Quasi-experiments to establish causal effects of HIV care and treatment and to improve the cascade of care.

Science.gov (United States)

Bor, Jacob; Geldsetzer, Pascal; Venkataramani, Atheendar; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-11-01

Randomized, population-representative trials of clinical interventions are rare. Quasi-experiments have been used successfully to generate causal evidence on the cascade of HIV care in a broad range of real-world settings. Quasi-experiments exploit exogenous, or quasi-random, variation occurring naturally in the world or because of an administrative rule or policy change to estimate causal effects. Well designed quasi-experiments have greater internal validity than typical observational research designs. At the same time, quasi-experiments may also have potential for greater external validity than experiments and can be implemented when randomized clinical trials are infeasible or unethical. Quasi-experimental studies have established the causal effects of HIV testing and initiation of antiretroviral therapy on health, economic outcomes and sexual behaviors, as well as indirect effects on other community members. Recent quasi-experiments have evaluated specific interventions to improve patient performance in the cascade of care, providing causal evidence to optimize clinical management of HIV. Quasi-experiments have generated important data on the real-world impacts of HIV testing and treatment and on interventions to improve the cascade of care. With the growth in large-scale clinical and administrative data, quasi-experiments enable rigorous evaluation of policies implemented in real-world settings.

Tachyon kinematics and causality: A systematic, thorough analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recami, E.

1985-01-01

The chronological order of the events along a space-like path is not invariant under Lorentz transformations, as wellknown. This led to an early conviction that tachyons would give rise to causal anomalies. A relativistic version of the Stuckelberg-Feynman 'switching procedure' (SWP) has been invoked as the suitable tool to eliminate those anomalies. The application of the 'SWP' does eliminate the motions backwards in time, but interchanges the roles of source and detector. This fact triggered the proposal of a host of causal 'paradoxes'. Till now, however, it has not been recognized that such paradoxes can be sensibly discussed (and completely solved, at least 'in microphysics') only after having properly developed the tachyon relativistic mechanics. It is shown how to apply the 'SWP', both in the case of ordinary Special Relativity, and in the case with tachyons. Then, the kinematics of the tachyon-exchange between two (ordinary) bodies is carrefully exploited. Being finally able to tackle the tachyon-causality problem, the paradoxes are sucessively solved: (i) by Tolman-Regge; (ii) by Pirani; (iii) by Edmonds; (iv) by Bell. At last, a further new paradox associated with the transmission of signals by modulated tachyon beams is discussed. (Author) [pt

Causal symmetric spaces

CERN Document Server

Olafsson, Gestur; Helgason, Sigurdur

1996-01-01

This book is intended to introduce researchers and graduate students to the concepts of causal symmetric spaces. To date, results of recent studies considered standard by specialists have not been widely published. This book seeks to bring this information to students and researchers in geometry and analysis on causal symmetric spaces.Includes the newest results in harmonic analysis including Spherical functions on ordered symmetric space and the holmorphic discrete series and Hardy spaces on compactly casual symmetric spacesDeals with the infinitesimal situation, coverings of symmetric spaces, classification of causal symmetric pairs and invariant cone fieldsPresents basic geometric properties of semi-simple symmetric spacesIncludes appendices on Lie algebras and Lie groups, Bounded symmetric domains (Cayley transforms), Antiholomorphic Involutions on Bounded Domains and Para-Hermitian Symmetric Spaces

Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

KAUST Repository

Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

2017-01-01

Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

KAUST Repository

Triantafillou, Sofia

2017-09-29

Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

Quasi-experiments to establish causal effects of HIV care and treatment and to improve the cascade of care

OpenAIRE

Bor, Jacob; Geldsetzer, Pascal; Venkataramani, Atheendar; B?rnighausen, Till

2015-01-01

Purpose of review Randomized, population-representative trials of clinical interventions are rare. Quasi-experiments have been used successfully to generate causal evidence on the cascade of HIV care in a broad range of real-world settings. Recent findings Quasi-experiments exploit exogenous, or quasi-random, variation occurring naturally in the world or because of an administrative rule or policy change to estimate causal effects. Well designed quasi-experiments have greater internal validit...

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

Science.gov (United States)

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Principal stratification in causal inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

Causal Set Generator and Action Computer

OpenAIRE

Cunningham, William; Krioukov, Dmitri

2017-01-01

The causal set approach to quantum gravity has gained traction over the past three decades, but numerical experiments involving causal sets have been limited to relatively small scales. The software suite presented here provides a new framework for the generation and study of causal sets. Its efficiency surpasses previous implementations by several orders of magnitude. We highlight several important features of the code, including the compact data structures, the $O(N^2)$ causal set generatio...

Toxicology and Epidemiology: Improving the Science with a Framework for Combining Toxicological and Epidemiological Evidence to Establish Causal Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Adami, Hans-Olov; Berry, Sir Colin L.; Breckenridge, Charles B.; Smith, Lewis L.; Swenberg, James A.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Weiss, Noel S.; Pastoor, Timothy P.

2011-01-01

Historically, toxicology has played a significant role in verifying conclusions drawn on the basis of epidemiological findings. Agents that were suggested to have a role in human diseases have been tested in animals to firmly establish a causative link. Bacterial pathogens are perhaps the oldest examples, and tobacco smoke and lung cancer and asbestos and mesothelioma provide two more recent examples. With the advent of toxicity testing guidelines and protocols, toxicology took on a role that was intended to anticipate or predict potential adverse effects in humans, and epidemiology, in many cases, served a role in verifying or negating these toxicological predictions. The coupled role of epidemiology and toxicology in discerning human health effects by environmental agents is obvious, but there is currently no systematic and transparent way to bring the data and analysis of the two disciplines together in a way that provides a unified view on an adverse causal relationship between an agent and a disease. In working to advance the interaction between the fields of toxicology and epidemiology, we propose here a five-step “Epid-Tox” process that would focus on: (1) collection of all relevant studies, (2) assessment of their quality, (3) evaluation of the weight of evidence, (4) assignment of a scalable conclusion, and (5) placement on a causal relationship grid. The causal relationship grid provides a clear view of how epidemiological and toxicological data intersect, permits straightforward conclusions with regard to a causal relationship between agent and effect, and can show how additional data can influence conclusions of causality. PMID:21561883

Spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Mizera, Sebastian

2014-01-01

We evaluate the spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity by simulating random walks on causal sets. In contrast to other approaches to quantum gravity, we find an increasing spectral dimension at small scales. This observation can be connected to the nonlocality of causal set theory that is deeply rooted in its fundamentally Lorentzian nature. Based on its large-scale behaviour, we conjecture that the spectral dimension can serve as a tool to distinguish causal sets that approximate manifolds from those that do not. As a new tool to probe quantum spacetime in different quantum gravity approaches, we introduce a novel dimensional estimator, the causal spectral dimension, based on the meeting probability of two random walkers, which respect the causal structure of the quantum spacetime. We discuss a causal-set example, where the spectral dimension and the causal spectral dimension differ, due to the existence of a preferred foliation. (paper)

The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge

2013-01-01

In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s. - Highlights: • Total energy consumption has predictive content for real economic activity. • The causality from energy to output growth is apparent in the periods of recession. • The causality from energy to output growth is strong in the periods of energy crisis. • Output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. • The power of output growth in explaining energy diminishes after the mid of 1980s

Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban; Lebe, Fuat; Kayhan, Selim

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the direction causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries. The empirical model that includes capital and labor force as the control variables is estimated for the panel of fourteen OECD countries during the period 1980-2007. Apart from the previous studies in the nuclear energy consumption and economic growth relationship, this study utilizes the novel panel causality approach, which allows both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The findings show that there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in eleven out of fourteen cases, supporting the neutrality hypothesis. As a sensitivity analysis, we also conduct Toda-Yamamoto time series causality method and find out that the results from the panel causality analysis are slightly different than those from the time-series causality analysis. Thereby, we can conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analyzing the nature of causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth may play a key role for policy implications. - Highlights: → Causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is examined for OECD countries. → Panel causality method, which allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity, is utilized. → The neutrality hypothesis is supported.

¿CONFIEREN PODERES CAUSALES LOS UNIVERSALES TRASCENDENTES?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Tomás Alvarado Marambio

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This work discusses the so-called ‘Eleatic’ argument against the existence of transcendent universals, i. e. universals which does not require instantiation for its existence. The Eleatic Principle states that everything produces a difference in the causal powers of something. As transcendent universals seem not to produce such a difference, transcendent universals seem not to exist. The argument depends crucially on the justification and the interpretation of the Eleatic Principle. It is argued, first, that it is not very clear that the principle is justified, and, second, that there are several alternatives for its interpretation, in relation with the different theories one can endorse about modality or causality. Anti-realist theories of modality or causality are not very appropriate for the understanding of what should be a ‘causal power’. Neither does a realist theory of causality conjoined with a combinatorial theory of possible worlds. A ‘causal power’ seems to be better understood in connection with a realist –non-reductionist– theory of causality and a causal theory of modality. Taken in this way the Eleatic Principle, nonetheless, it is argued that transcendent universals do ‘produce’ a difference in causal powers, for every causal connection requires such universals for its existence.

Re-thinking local causality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Friederich, Simon

There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the

mediation: R package for causal mediation analysis

OpenAIRE

Tingley, Dustin; Yamamoto, Teppei; Hirose, Kentaro; Keele, Luke; Imai, Kosuke

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting su...

The pivotal role of causality in local quantum physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroer, Bert

1999-04-01

In this article an attempt is made to present very recent conceptual and computational developments in QFT as new manifestation of old well established physical principles. The vehicle for converting the quantum-algebraic aspects of local quantum physics into more classical geometric structures is the modular theory of Tomita. As the above named laureate together with his collaborator showed for the first time, in sufficient generality, its use in physics goes through Einstein causality. This line of research recently gained momentum when it was realized that it is not only of great structural and conceptual innovative power (see section 4), but also promises a new computational road into nonperturbative QFT (section 5) which, picturesquely speaking, enters the subject on the extreme opposite (noncommutative) side relative to (Lagrangian) quantization. (author)

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

2014-06-01

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research

OpenAIRE

Pearl, Judea

1994-01-01

The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifiying causal effects from non-experimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in ter...

The Importance of Specifying and Studying Causal Mechanisms in School-Based Randomised Controlled Trials: Lessons from Two Studies of Cross-Age Peer Tutoring

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Stephen P.; Edovald, Triin; Lloyd, Cheryl; Kiss, Zsolt

2016-01-01

Based on the experience of evaluating 2 cross-age peer-tutoring interventions, we argue that researchers need to pay greater attention to causal mechanisms within the context of school-based randomised controlled trials. Without studying mechanisms, researchers are less able to explain the underlying causal processes that give rise to results from…

Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2012-06-01

We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

The selective power of causality on memory errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Jessecae K; Kulkofsky, Sarah

2015-01-01

We tested the influence of causal links on the production of memory errors in a misinformation paradigm. Participants studied a set of statements about a person, which were presented as either individual statements or pairs of causally linked statements. Participants were then provided with causally plausible and causally implausible misinformation. We hypothesised that studying information connected with causal links would promote representing information in a more abstract manner. As such, we predicted that causal information would not provide an overall protection against memory errors, but rather would preferentially help in the rejection of misinformation that was causally implausible, given the learned causal links. In two experiments, we measured whether the causal linkage of information would be generally protective against all memory errors or only selectively protective against certain types of memory errors. Causal links helped participants reject implausible memory lures, but did not protect against plausible lures. Our results suggest that causal information may promote an abstract storage of information that helps prevent only specific types of memory errors.

Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Plis, Sergey; Danks, David; Freeman, Cynthia; Calhoun, Vince

2015-12-01

Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a "rate-agnostic" manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling.

mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dustin Tingley

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

Entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability

Science.gov (United States)

Milz, Simon; Pollock, Felix A.; Le, Thao P.; Chiribella, Giulio; Modi, Kavan

2018-03-01

Quantum mechanics, in principle, allows for processes with indefinite causal order. However, most of these causal anomalies have not yet been detected experimentally. We show that every such process can be simulated experimentally by means of non-Markovian dynamics with a measurement on additional degrees of freedom. In detail, we provide an explicit construction to implement arbitrary a causal processes. Furthermore, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for open system dynamics with measurement to yield processes that respect causality locally, and find that tripartite entanglement and nonlocal unitary transformations are crucial requirements for the simulation of causally indefinite processes. These results show a direct connection between three counter-intuitive concepts: entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability.

Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

2011-01-01

In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

Space-time as a causal set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bombelli, L.; Lee, J.; Meyer, D.; Sorkin, R.D.

1987-01-01

We propose that space-time at the smallest scales is in reality a causal set: a locally finite set of elements endowed with a partial order corresponding to the macroscopic relation that defines past and future. We explore how a Lorentzian manifold can approximate a causal set, noting in particular that the thereby defined effective dimensionality of a given causal set can vary with length scale. Finally, we speculate briefly on the quantum dynamics of causal sets, indicating why an appropriate choice of action can reproduce general relativity in the classical limit

Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Bandura, Albert

1984-01-01

Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

Causal Evidence from Humans for the Role of Mediodorsal Nucleus of the Thalamus in Working Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Peräkylä, Jari; Sun, Lihua; Lehtimäki, Kai; Peltola, Jukka; Öhman, Juha; Möttönen, Timo; Ogawa, Keith H; Hartikainen, Kaisa M

2017-12-01

The mediodorsal nucleus of the thalamus (MD), with its extensive connections to the lateral pFC, has been implicated in human working memory and executive functions. However, this understanding is based solely on indirect evidence from human lesion and imaging studies and animal studies. Direct, causal evidence from humans is missing. To obtain direct evidence for MD's role in humans, we studied patients treated with deep brain stimulation (DBS) for refractory epilepsy. This treatment is thought to prevent the generalization of a seizure by disrupting the functioning of the patient's anterior nuclei of the thalamus (ANT) with high-frequency electric stimulation. This structure is located superior and anterior to MD, and when the DBS lead is implanted in ANT, tip contacts of the lead typically penetrate through ANT into the adjoining MD. To study the role of MD in human executive functions and working memory, we periodically disrupted and recovered MD's function with high-frequency electric stimulation using DBS contacts reaching MD while participants performed a cognitive task engaging several aspects of executive functions. We hypothesized that the efficacy of executive functions, specifically working memory, is impaired when the functioning of MD is perturbed by high-frequency stimulation. Eight participants treated with ANT-DBS for refractory epilepsy performed a computer-based test of executive functions while DBS was repeatedly switched ON and OFF at MD and at the control location (ANT). In comparison to stimulation of the control location, when MD was stimulated, participants committed 2.26 times more errors in general (total errors; OR = 2.26, 95% CI [1.69, 3.01]) and 2.86 times more working memory-related errors specifically (incorrect button presses; OR = 2.88, CI [1.95, 4.24]). Similarly, participants committed 1.81 more errors in general ( OR = 1.81, CI [1.45, 2.24]) and 2.08 times more working memory-related errors ( OR = 2.08, CI [1.57, 2.75]) in

Repeated Causal Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, Craig

2012-01-01

Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

Kant on causal laws and powers.

Science.gov (United States)

Henschen, Tobias

2014-12-01

The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

2016-01-01

Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

Repair of Partly Misspecified Causal Diagrams.

Science.gov (United States)

Oates, Chris J; Kasza, Jessica; Simpson, Julie A; Forbes, Andrew B

2017-07-01

Errors in causal diagrams elicited from experts can lead to the omission of important confounding variables from adjustment sets and render causal inferences invalid. In this report, a novel method is presented that repairs a misspecified causal diagram through the addition of edges. These edges are determined using a data-driven approach designed to provide improved statistical efficiency relative to de novo structure learning methods. Our main assumption is that the expert is "directionally informed," meaning that "false" edges provided by the expert would not create cycles if added to the "true" causal diagram. The overall procedure is cast as a preprocessing technique that is agnostic to subsequent causal inferences. Results based on simulated data and data derived from an observational cohort illustrate the potential for data-assisted elicitation in epidemiologic applications. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B208.

Functional equations with causal operators

CERN Document Server

Corduneanu, C

2003-01-01

Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

Classical planning and causal implicatures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

Causal inference in economics and marketing.

Science.gov (United States)

Varian, Hal R

2016-07-05

This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

2018-04-01

Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

Causality and dispersion relations and the role of the S-matrix in the ongoing research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroer, Bert; Freie Univ. , Berlin

2011-01-01

The adaptation of the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations to the causal localization structure of QFT led to an important project in particle physics, the only one with a successful closure. The same cannot be said about the subsequent attempts to formulate particle physics as a pure S-matrix project. The feasibility of a pure S-matrix approach are critically analyzed and their seri- ous shortcomings are highlighted. Whereas the conceptual/mathematical demands of renormalized perturbation theory are modest and misunderstandings could easily be corrected, the correct understanding about the origin of the crossing property demands the use of the mathematical theory of modular localization and its relation to the thermal KMS condition. These concepts which combine localization, vacuum polarization and thermal properties under the roof of modular theory will be explained and their use in a new constructive (nonperturbative) approach to QFT will be indicated. The S-matrix still plays a predominant role, but different from Heisenberg's and Mandelstam's proposals the new project is not a pure S-matrix approach. (author)

Causality and dispersion relations and the role of the S-matrix in the ongoing research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schroer, Bert, E-mail: schroer@cbpf.b [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Freie Univ. , Berlin (Germany). Inst. fur Theoretische Physik

2011-07-01

The adaptation of the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations to the causal localization structure of QFT led to an important project in particle physics, the only one with a successful closure. The same cannot be said about the subsequent attempts to formulate particle physics as a pure S-matrix project. The feasibility of a pure S-matrix approach are critically analyzed and their seri- ous shortcomings are highlighted. Whereas the conceptual/mathematical demands of renormalized perturbation theory are modest and misunderstandings could easily be corrected, the correct understanding about the origin of the crossing property demands the use of the mathematical theory of modular localization and its relation to the thermal KMS condition. These concepts which combine localization, vacuum polarization and thermal properties under the roof of modular theory will be explained and their use in a new constructive (nonperturbative) approach to QFT will be indicated. The S-matrix still plays a predominant role, but different from Heisenberg's and Mandelstam's proposals the new project is not a pure S-matrix approach. (author)

Causality, spin, and equal-time commutators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Rahman, A.M.

1975-01-01

We study the causality constraints on the structure of the Lorentz-antisymmetric component of the commutator of two conserved isovector currents between fermion states of equal momenta. We discuss the sum rules that follow from causality and scaling, using the recently introduced refined infinite-momentum technique. The complete set of sum rules is found to include the spin-dependent fixed-mass sum rules obtained from light-cone commutators. The causality and scaling restrictions on the structure of the electromagnetic equal-time commutators are discussed, and it is found, in particular, that causality requires the spin-dependent part of the matrix element for the time-space electromagnetic equal-time commutator to vanish identically. It is also shown, in comparison with the electromagnetic case, that the corresponding matrix element for the time-space isovector current equal-time commutator is required, by causality, to have isospin-antisymmetric tensor and scalar operator Schwinger terms

Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Stuart G

2013-11-10

Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, X. S.

2017-12-01

Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

K-causality and degenerate spacetimes

Science.gov (United States)

Dowker, H. F.; Garcia, R. S.; Surya, S.

2000-11-01

The causal relation K+ was introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar to extend the standard causal analysis of C2 spacetimes to those that are only C0. Most of their results also hold true in the case of metrics with degeneracies which are C0 but vanish at isolated points. In this paper we seek to examine K+ explicitly in the case of topology-changing `Morse histories' which contain degeneracies. We first demonstrate some interesting features of this relation in globally Lorentzian spacetimes. In particular, we show that K+ is robust and the Hawking and Sachs characterization of causal continuity translates into a natural condition in terms of K+. We then examine K+ in topology-changing Morse spacetimes with the degenerate points excised and then for the Morse histories in which the degenerate points are reinstated. We find further characterizations of causal continuity in these cases.

Causal inference in econometrics

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dziopa, P.

1993-01-01

This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

Dynamics and causality constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, Manoelito M. de

2001-04-01

The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

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Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

2017-01-01

Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuipers, Benjamin

The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

Temporal expression profiling identifies pathways mediating effect of causal variant on phenotype.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saumya Gupta

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Even with identification of multiple causal genetic variants for common human diseases, understanding the molecular processes mediating the causal variants' effect on the disease remains a challenge. This understanding is crucial for the development of therapeutic strategies to prevent and treat disease. While static profiling of gene expression is primarily used to get insights into the biological bases of diseases, it makes differentiating the causative from the correlative effects difficult, as the dynamics of the underlying biological processes are not monitored. Using yeast as a model, we studied genome-wide gene expression dynamics in the presence of a causal variant as the sole genetic determinant, and performed allele-specific functional validation to delineate the causal effects of the genetic variant on the phenotype. Here, we characterized the precise genetic effects of a functional MKT1 allelic variant in sporulation efficiency variation. A mathematical model describing meiotic landmark events and conditional activation of MKT1 expression during sporulation specified an early meiotic role of this variant. By analyzing the early meiotic genome-wide transcriptional response, we demonstrate an MKT1-dependent role of novel modulators, namely, RTG1/3, regulators of mitochondrial retrograde signaling, and DAL82, regulator of nitrogen starvation, in additively effecting sporulation efficiency. In the presence of functional MKT1 allele, better respiration during early sporulation was observed, which was dependent on the mitochondrial retrograde regulator, RTG3. Furthermore, our approach showed that MKT1 contributes to sporulation independent of Puf3, an RNA-binding protein that steady-state transcription profiling studies have suggested to mediate MKT1-pleiotropic effects during mitotic growth. These results uncover interesting regulatory links between meiosis and mitochondrial retrograde signaling. In this study, we highlight the advantage

Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

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Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

2017-11-30

Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Causal extraction of black hole rotational energy by various kinds of electromagnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koide, Shinji; Baba, Tamon

2014-01-01

Recent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations have suggested that relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) have been powered by the rotational energy of central black holes. Some mechanisms for extraction of black hole rotational energy have been proposed, like the Penrose process, Blandford-Znajek mechanism, MHD Penrose process, and superradiance. The Blandford-Znajek mechanism is the most promising mechanism for the engines of the relativistic jets from AGNs. However, an intuitive interpretation of this mechanism with causality is not yet clarified, while the Penrose process has a clear interpretation for causal energy extraction from a black hole with negative energy. In this paper, we present a formula to build physical intuition so that in the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, as well as in other electromagnetic processes, negative electromagnetic energy plays an important role in causal extraction of the rotational energy of black holes.

Are bruxism and the bite causally related?

Science.gov (United States)

Lobbezoo, F; Ahlberg, J; Manfredini, D; Winocur, E

2012-07-01

In the dental profession, the belief that bruxism and dental (mal-)occlusion ('the bite') are causally related is widespread. The aim of this review was to critically assess the available literature on this topic. A PubMed search of the English-language literature, using the query 'Bruxism [Majr] AND (Dental Occlusion [Majr] OR Malocclusion [Majr])', yielded 93 articles, of which 46 papers were finally included in the present review*. Part of the included publications dealt with the possible associations between bruxism and aspects of occlusion, from which it was concluded that neither for occlusal interferences nor for factors related to the anatomy of the oro-facial skeleton, there is any evidence available that they are involved in the aetiology of bruxism. Instead, there is a growing awareness of other factors (viz. psychosocial and behavioural ones) being important in the aetiology of bruxism. Another part of the included papers assessed the possible mediating role of occlusion between bruxism and its purported consequences (e.g. tooth wear, loss of periodontal tissues, and temporomandibular pain and dysfunction). Even though most dentists agree that bruxism may have several adverse effects on the masticatory system, for none of these purported adverse effects, evidence for a mediating role of occlusion and articulation has been found to date. Hence, based on this review, it should be concluded that to date, there is no evidence whatsoever for a causal relationship between bruxism and the bite. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Shohei

2018-05-22

Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

OpenAIRE

Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

2014-01-01

Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic lite...

Investigating the possible causal role of coffee consumption with prostate cancer risk and progression using Mendelian randomization analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taylor, Amy E; Martin, Richard M; Geybels, Milan S

2017-01-01

Coffee consumption has been shown in some studies to be associated with lower risk of prostate cancer. However, it is unclear if this association is causal or due to confounding or reverse causality. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation analysis to investigate the causal effects of coffee...... consumption on prostate cancer risk and progression. We used two genetic variants robustly associated with caffeine intake (rs4410790 and rs2472297) as proxies for coffee consumption in a sample of 46,687 men of European ancestry from 25 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. Associations between genetic...... variants and prostate cancer case status, stage and grade were assessed by logistic regression and with all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was no clear evidence that a genetic risk score combining rs4410790 and rs2472297 was associated...

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klimidis Steven

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

Covariation in Natural Causal Induction.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Patricia W.; Novick, Laura R.

1991-01-01

Biases and models usually offered by cognitive and social psychology and by philosophy to explain causal induction are evaluated with respect to focal sets (contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed). A probabilistic contrast model is proposed as underlying covariation computation in natural causal induction. (SLD)

Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

2016-01-01

Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

Exploring causal associations between alcohol and coronary heart disease risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lawlor, Debbie A; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Benn, Marianne

2013-01-01

association with triglycerides [-14.9% (-25.6, -4.3)] in IV analyses; P = 0.006 and 0.01, respectively, for difference between the two. Alcohol was not associated with non-HDLc or glucose.ConclusionOur results show adverse effects of long-term alcohol consumption on BP and BMI. We also found novel evidence......AimsTo explore the causal effect of long-term alcohol consumption on coronary heart disease risk factors.Methods and resultsWe used variants in ADH1B and ADH1C genes as instrumental variables (IV) to estimate the causal effect of long-term alcohol consumption on body mass index (BMI), blood...... pressure (BP), lipids, fibrinogen, and glucose. Analyses were undertaken in 54 604 Danes (mean age 56 years). Both confounder-adjusted multivariable and IV analyses suggested that a greater alcohol consumption among those who drank any alcohol resulted in a higher BP [mean difference in SBP per doubling...

Individuals with currently untreated mental illness: causal beliefs and readiness to seek help.

Science.gov (United States)

Stolzenburg, S; Freitag, S; Evans-Lacko, S; Speerforck, S; Schmidt, S; Schomerus, G

2018-01-16

Many people with mental illness do not seek professional help. Beliefs about the causes of their current health problem seem relevant for initiating treatment. Our aim was to find out to what extent the perceived causes of current untreated mental health problems determine whether a person considers herself/himself as having a mental illness, perceives need for professional help and plans to seek help in the near future. In a cross-sectional study, we examined 207 untreated persons with a depressive syndrome, all fulfilling criteria for a current mental illness as confirmed with a structured diagnostic interview (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview). The sample was recruited in the community using adverts, flyers and social media. We elicited causal explanations for the present problem, depression literacy, self-identification as having a mental illness, perceived need for professional help, help-seeking intentions, severity of depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire - Depression), and whether respondents had previously sought mental healthcare. Most participants fulfilled diagnostic criteria for a mood disorder (n = 181, 87.4%) and/or neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (n = 120, 58.0%) according to the ICD-10. N = 94 (45.4%) participants had never received mental health treatment previously. Exploratory factor analysis of a list of 25 different causal explanations resulted in five factors: biomedical causes, person-related causes, childhood trauma, current stress and unhealthy behaviour. Attributing the present problem to biomedical causes, person-related causes, childhood trauma and stress were all associated with stronger self-identification as having a mental illness. In persons who had never received mental health treatment previously, attribution to biomedical causes was related to greater perceived need and stronger help-seeking intentions. In those with treatment experience, lower attribution to person-related causes and

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role

Behavioural Pattern of Causality Parameter of Autoregressive ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, a causal form of Autoregressive Moving Average process, ARMA (p, q) of various orders and behaviour of the causality parameter of ARMA model is investigated. It is deduced that the behaviour of causality parameter ψi depends on positive and negative values of autoregressive parameter φ and moving ...

Tachyons and causal paradoxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maund, J.B.

1979-01-01

Although the existence of tachyons is not ruled out by special relativity, it appears that causal paradoxes will arise if there are tachyons. The usual solutions to these paradoxes employ some form of the reinterpretation principle. In this paper it is argued first that, the principle is incoherent, second, that even if it is not, some causal paradoxes remain, and third, the most plausible ''solution,'' which appeals to boundary conditions of the universe, will conflict with special relativity

Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

York eHagmayer

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analysed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

Why do tougher caseworkers increase employment? The role of programme assignment as a causal mechanism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

Previous research found that less accommodating caseworkers are more successful in placing unemployed workers into employment. This paper tries to shed more light on the causal mechanisms behind this result using semiparametric mediation analysis. Analysing very informative linked jobseeker...

Perceived causal relations between anxiety, posttraumatic stress and depression: extension to moderation, mediation, and network analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Frewen, Paul A; Schmittmann, Verena D; Bringmann, Laura F; Borsboom, Denny

2013-01-01

Previous research demonstrates that posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame are frequently co-occurring problems that may be causally related. The present study utilized Perceived Causal Relations (PCR) scaling in order to assess participants' own attributions concerning whether and to what degree these co-occurring problems may be causally interrelated. 288 young adults rated the frequency and respective PCR scores associating their symptoms of posttraumatic reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. PCR scores were found to moderate associations between the frequency of posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Network analyses showed that the number of feedback loops between PCR scores was positively associated with symptom frequencies. Results tentatively support the interpretation of PCR scores as moderators of the association between different psychological problems, and lend support to the hypothesis that increased symptom frequencies are observed in the presence of an increased number of causal feedback loops between symptoms. Additionally, a perceived causal role for the reexperiencing of traumatic memories in exacerbating emotional disturbance was identified.

Perceived causal relations between anxiety, posttraumatic stress and depression: extension to moderation, mediation, and network analysis

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Paul A. Frewen

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Previous research demonstrates that posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame are frequently co-occurring problems that may be causally related. Objectives: The present study utilized Perceived Causal Relations (PCR scaling in order to assess participants’ own attributions concerning whether and to what degree these co-occurring problems may be causally interrelated. Methods: 288 young adults rated the frequency and respective PCR scores associating their symptoms of posttraumatic reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Results: PCR scores were found to moderate associations between the frequency of posttraumatic memory reexperiencing, depression, anxiety, and guilt-shame. Network analyses showed that the number of feedback loops between PCR scores was positively associated with symptom frequencies. Conclusion: Results tentatively support the interpretation of PCR scores as moderators of the association between different psychological problems, and lend support to the hypothesis that increased symptom frequencies are observed in the presence of an increased number of causal feedback loops between symptoms. Additionally, a perceived causal role for the reexperiencing of traumatic memories in exacerbating emotional disturbance was identified.

Linear causal modeling with structural equations

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Mulaik, Stanley A

2009-01-01

Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, A.; Zarraga, A.

2010-01-01

This paper applies recent panel methodology to investigate the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for a set of 12 European countries using annual data for the period 1970-2007. The sample countries have moved faster than other neighboring countries towards the creation of a single electricity market over the past 30 years. Energy prices are also included in the study due to their important role in affecting the above variables, thus avoiding the problem of omitted variable bias. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a trivariate VECM estimated by system GMM. The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three series and a negative short-run and strong causality from electricity consumption to GDP. As expected, there is bidirectional causality between energy prices and GDP and weaker evidence between electricity consumption and energy prices. These results support the policies implemented towards the creation of a common European electricity market.

Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

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Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

2014-10-01

This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A Causal Theory of Modality

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José Tomás Alvarado

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This work presents a causal conception of metaphysical modality in which a state of affairs is metaphysically possible if and only if it can be caused (in the past, the present or the future by current entities. The conception is contrasted with what is called the “combinatorial” conception of modality, in which everything can co-exist with anything else. This work explains how the notion of ‘causality’ should be construed in the causal theory, what difference exists between modalities thus defined from nomological modality, how accessibility relations between possible worlds should be interpreted, and what is the relation between the causal conception and the necessity of origin.

Causal reasoning with mental models

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Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

Causal reasoning with mental models.

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Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2014-01-01

This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

Causal reasoning with mental models

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Sangeet eKhemlani

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

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Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

2015-12-01

A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

Safety culture and learning from incidents: the role of incident reporting and causal analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilpert, B.

1994-01-01

Nuclear industry more than any other industrial branch has developed and used predictive risk analysis as a method of feedforward control of safety and reliability. Systematic evaluation of operating experience, statistical documentation of component failures, systematic documentation and analysis of incidents are important complementary elements of feedback control: we are dealing here with adjustment and learning from experience, in particular from past incidents. Using preliminary findings from ongoing research at the Research Center Systems Safety at the Berlin University of Technology the contribution discusses preconditions for an effective use of lessons to be learnt from closely matched incident reporting and in depth analyses of causal chains leading to incidents. Such conditions are especially standardized documentation, reporting and analyzing methods of incidents; structured information flows and feedback loops; abstaining from culpability search; mutual trust of employees and management; willingness of all concerned to continually evaluate and optimize the established learning system. Thus, incident related reporting and causal analyses contribute to safety culture, which is seen to emerge from tightly coupled organizational measures and respective change in attitudes and behaviour. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs

Entanglement entropy in causal set theory

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Sorkin, Rafael D.; Yazdi, Yasaman K.

2018-04-01

Entanglement entropy is now widely accepted as having deep connections with quantum gravity. It is therefore desirable to understand it in the context of causal sets, especially since they provide in a natural manner the UV cutoff needed to render entanglement entropy finite. Formulating a notion of entanglement entropy in a causal set is not straightforward because the type of canonical hypersurface-data on which its definition typically relies is not available. Instead, we appeal to the more global expression given in Sorkin (2012 (arXiv:1205.2953)) which, for a Gaussian scalar field, expresses the entropy of a spacetime region in terms of the field’s correlation function within that region (its ‘Wightman function’ W(x, x') ). Carrying this formula over to the causal set, one obtains an entropy which is both finite and of a Lorentz invariant nature. We evaluate this global entropy-expression numerically for certain regions (primarily order-intervals or ‘causal diamonds’) within causal sets of 1  +  1 dimensions. For the causal-set counterpart of the entanglement entropy, we obtain, in the first instance, a result that follows a (spacetime) volume law instead of the expected (spatial) area law. We find, however, that one obtains an area law if one truncates the commutator function (‘Pauli–Jordan operator’) and the Wightman function by projecting out the eigenmodes of the Pauli–Jordan operator whose eigenvalues are too close to zero according to a geometrical criterion which we describe more fully below. In connection with these results and the questions they raise, we also study the ‘entropy of coarse-graining’ generated by thinning out the causal set, and we compare it with what one obtains by similarly thinning out a chain of harmonic oscillators, finding the same, ‘universal’ behaviour in both cases.

Mathematical implications of Einstein-Weyl causality

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Borchers, H.J.; Sen, R.N.

2006-01-01

The present work is the first systematic attempt at answering the following fundamental question: what mathematical structures does Einstein-Weyl causality impose on a point-set that has no other previous structure defined on it? The authors propose an axiomatization of Einstein-Weyl causality (inspired by physics), and investigate the topological and uniform structures that it implies. Their final result is that a causal space is densely embedded in one that is locally a differentiable manifold. The mathematical level required of the reader is that of the graduate student in mathematical physics. (orig.)

Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

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Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)

2016-03-18

The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of “time machines”, i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

Introductive remarks on causal inference

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Silvana A. Romio

2013-05-01

Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

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Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

2016-01-01

When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

Causal knowledge and imitation/emulation switching in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and children (Homo sapiens).

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Horner, Victoria; Whiten, Andrew

2005-07-01

This study explored whether the tendency of chimpanzees and children to use emulation or imitation to solve a tool-using task was a response to the availability of causal information. Young wild-born chimpanzees from an African sanctuary and 3- to 4-year-old children observed a human demonstrator use a tool to retrieve a reward from a puzzle-box. The demonstration involved both causally relevant and irrelevant actions, and the box was presented in each of two conditions: opaque and clear. In the opaque condition, causal information about the effect of the tool inside the box was not available, and hence it was impossible to differentiate between the relevant and irrelevant parts of the demonstration. However, in the clear condition causal information was available, and subjects could potentially determine which actions were necessary. When chimpanzees were presented with the opaque box, they reproduced both the relevant and irrelevant actions, thus imitating the overall structure of the task. When the box was presented in the clear condition they instead ignored the irrelevant actions in favour of a more efficient, emulative technique. These results suggest that emulation is the favoured strategy of chimpanzees when sufficient causal information is available. However, if such information is not available, chimpanzees are prone to employ a more comprehensive copy of an observed action. In contrast to the chimpanzees, children employed imitation to solve the task in both conditions, at the expense of efficiency. We suggest that the difference in performance of chimpanzees and children may be due to a greater susceptibility of children to cultural conventions, perhaps combined with a differential focus on the results, actions and goals of the demonstrator.

Gravity and matter in causal set theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sverdlov, Roman; Bombelli, Luca

2009-01-01

The goal of this paper is to propose an approach to the formulation of dynamics for causal sets and coupled matter fields. We start from the continuum version of the action for a Klein-Gordon field coupled to gravity, and rewrite it first using quantities that have a direct correspondent in the case of a causal set, namely volumes, causal relations and timelike lengths, as variables to describe the geometry. In this step, the local Lagrangian density L(f;x) for a set of fields f is recast into a quasilocal expression L 0 (f;p,q) that depends on pairs of causally related points pprq and is a function of the values of f in the Alexandrov set defined by those points, and whose limit as p and q approach a common point x is L(f;x). We then describe how to discretize L 0 (f;p,q) and use it to define a causal-set-based action.

The importance of causal connections in the comprehension of spontaneous spoken discourse.

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Cevasco, Jazmin; van den Broek, Paul

2008-11-01

In this study, we investigated the psychological processes in spontaneous discourse comprehension through a network theory of discourse representation. Existing models of narrative comprehension describe the importance of causality processing for forming a representation of a text, but usually in the context of deliberately composed texts rather than in spontaneous, unplanned discourse. Our aim was to determine whether spontaneous discourse components with many causal connections are represented more strongly than components with few connections--similar to the findings in text comprehension literature--and whether any such effects depend on the medium in which the spontaneous discourse is presented (oral vs. written). Participants either listened to or read a transcription of a section of a radio transmission. They then recalled the spontaneous discourse material and answered comprehension questions. Results indicate that the processing of causal connections plays an important role in the comprehension of spontaneous spoken discourse, and do not indicate that their effects on recall are weaker in the comprehension of oral discourse than in the comprehension of written discourse.

Causal theory in (2+1)-dimensional Qed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharf, G.; Wreszinski, W.F.

1994-01-01

The program of constructing the S-matrix by means of causality in quantum field theory goes back to Stueckelberg and Bogoliubov. Epstein and Glaser proposed an axiomatic construct where ultraviolet divergences do not appear, leading directly to the renormalized perturbation series. They have shown that in the causal theory the UV problem is a consequence of incorrect distribution splitting. This paper studies the causal theory in (2+1)D Qed

The emerging causal understanding of institutional objects.

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Noyes, Alexander; Keil, Frank C; Dunham, Yarrow

2018-01-01

Institutional objects, such as money, drivers' licenses, and borders, have functions because of their social roles rather than their immediate physical properties. These objects are causally different than standard artifacts (e.g. hammers, chairs, and cars), sharing more commonality with other social roles. Thus, they inform psychological theories of human-made objects as well as children's emerging understanding of social reality. We examined whether children (N=180, ages 4-9) differentiate institutional objects from standard artifacts. Specifically, we examine whether children understand that mutual intentions (i.e., the intentions of a social collective) underlie the functional affordances of institutional objects in ways that they do not for standard artifacts. We find that young children assimilate institutional objects into their intuitive theories of standard artifacts; children begin to differentiate between the domains in the elementary school years. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The mistake of the causal relationship

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О. Д. Комаров

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The article deals with issues of the mistake of the causal relationship. The modern criminal law science approaches to the content of the mistake of the causal relationship and its significance to the qualification of the crime are described. It is proved that in cases of dolus generalis different mental attitude of the guilty person to two separate acts of his conduct exist. Consequently, in mentioned above cases mistake of the causal relationship does not have place. The rules of qualification of the crimes commited with the mistake of causation and in cases of dolus generalis are proposed .

Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesseh, Presley K.; Zoumara, Babette

2012-01-01

This contribution investigates causal interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia and proposes application of a bootstrap methodology. To better reflect causality, employment is incorporated as additional variable. The study demonstrates evidence of distinct bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Additionally, the results show that employment in Liberia Granger causes economic growth and apply irrespective of the short-run or long-run. Evidence from a Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data, suggesting that the bootstrap technique employed in this study is more appropriate. Given the empirical results, implications are that energy expansion policies like energy subsidy or low energy tariff for instance, would be necessary to cope with demand exerted as a result of economic growth in Liberia. Furthermore, Liberia might have the performance of its employment generation on the economy partly determined by adequate energy. Therefore, it seems fully justified that a quick shift towards energy production based on clean energy sources may significantly slow down economic growth in Liberia. Hence, the government’s target to implement a long-term strategy to make Liberia a carbon neutral country, and eventually less carbon dependent by 2050 is understandable. - Highlights: ► Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia investigated. ► There is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. ► Energy expansion policies are necessary to cope with demand from economic growth. ► Asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data. ► The bootstrap methodology employed in our study is more appropriate.

Optogenetic and pharmacological suppression of spatial clusters of face neurons reveal their causal role in face gender discrimination.

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Afraz, Arash; Boyden, Edward S; DiCarlo, James J

2015-05-26

Neurons that respond more to images of faces over nonface objects were identified in the inferior temporal (IT) cortex of primates three decades ago. Although it is hypothesized that perceptual discrimination between faces depends on the neural activity of IT subregions enriched with "face neurons," such a causal link has not been directly established. Here, using optogenetic and pharmacological methods, we reversibly suppressed the neural activity in small subregions of IT cortex of macaque monkeys performing a facial gender-discrimination task. Each type of intervention independently demonstrated that suppression of IT subregions enriched in face neurons induced a contralateral deficit in face gender-discrimination behavior. The same neural suppression of other IT subregions produced no detectable change in behavior. These results establish a causal link between the neural activity in IT face neuron subregions and face gender-discrimination behavior. Also, the demonstration that brief neural suppression of specific spatial subregions of IT induces behavioral effects opens the door for applying the technical advantages of optogenetics to a systematic attack on the causal relationship between IT cortex and high-level visual perception.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JAPAN: A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

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Hazuki Ishida

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores whether Japanese economy can continue to grow without extensive dependence on fossil fuels. The paper conducts time series analysis using a multivariate model of fossil fuels, non-fossil energy, labor, stock and GDP to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan. The results of cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among the variables. Using a vector error-correction model, the study reveals bidirectional causality between fossil fuels and GDP. The results also show that there is no causal relationship between non-fossil energy and GDP. The results of cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, and variance decomposition analysis imply that non-fossil energy may not necessarily be able to play the role of fossil fuels. Japan cannot seem to realize both continuous economic growth and the departure from dependence on fossil fuels. Hence, growth-oriented macroeconomic policies should be re-examined.

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

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Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

2016-03-01

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

On minimizers of causal variational principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiefeneder, Daniela

2011-01-01

Causal variational principles are a class of nonlinear minimization problems which arise in a formulation of relativistic quantum theory referred to as the fermionic projector approach. This thesis is devoted to a numerical and analytic study of the minimizers of a general class of causal variational principles. We begin with a numerical investigation of variational principles for the fermionic projector in discrete space-time. It is shown that for sufficiently many space-time points, the minimizing fermionic projector induces non-trivial causal relations on the space-time points. We then generalize the setting by introducing a class of causal variational principles for measures on a compact manifold. In our main result we prove under general assumptions that the support of a minimizing measure is either completely timelike, or it is singular in the sense that its interior is empty. In the examples of the circle, the sphere and certain flag manifolds, the general results are supplemented by a more detailed analysis of the minimizers. (orig.)

Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

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Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

2015-01-01

Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

A general, multivariate definition of causal effects in epidemiology.

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Flanders, W Dana; Klein, Mitchel

2015-07-01

Population causal effects are often defined as contrasts of average individual-level counterfactual outcomes, comparing different exposure levels. Common examples include causal risk difference and risk ratios. These and most other examples emphasize effects on disease onset, a reflection of the usual epidemiological interest in disease occurrence. Exposure effects on other health characteristics, such as prevalence or conditional risk of a particular disability, can be important as well, but contrasts involving these other measures may often be dismissed as non-causal. For example, an observed prevalence ratio might often viewed as an estimator of a causal incidence ratio and hence subject to bias. In this manuscript, we provide and evaluate a definition of causal effects that generalizes those previously available. A key part of the generalization is that contrasts used in the definition can involve multivariate, counterfactual outcomes, rather than only univariate outcomes. An important consequence of our generalization is that, using it, one can properly define causal effects based on a wide variety of additional measures. Examples include causal prevalence ratios and differences and causal conditional risk ratios and differences. We illustrate how these additional measures can be useful, natural, easily estimated, and of public health importance. Furthermore, we discuss conditions for valid estimation of each type of causal effect, and how improper interpretation or inferences for the wrong target population can be sources of bias.

Information causality from an entropic and a probabilistic perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Safi, Sabri W.; Short, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

The information causality principle is a generalization of the no-signaling principle which implies some of the known restrictions on quantum correlations. But despite its clear physical motivation, information causality is formulated in terms of a rather specialized game and figure of merit. We explore different perspectives on information causality, discussing the probability of success as the figure of merit, a relation between information causality and the nonlocal ''inner-product game,'' and the derivation of a quadratic bound for these games. We then examine an entropic formulation of information causality with which one can obtain the same results, arguably in a simpler fashion.

Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

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Keele, Luke

2015-01-01

In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

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Kinsler, Paul

2011-01-01

I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

On the road toward formal reasoning: reasoning with factual causal and contrary-to-fact causal premises during early adolescence.

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Markovits, Henry

2014-12-01

Understanding the development of conditional (if-then) reasoning is critical for theoretical and educational reasons. Here we examined the hypothesis that there is a developmental transition between reasoning with true and contrary-to-fact (CF) causal conditionals. A total of 535 students between 11 and 14 years of age received priming conditions designed to encourage use of either a true or CF alternatives generation strategy and reasoning problems with true causal and CF causal premises (with counterbalanced order). Results show that priming had no effect on reasoning with true causal premises. By contrast, priming with CF alternatives significantly improved logical reasoning with CF premises. Analysis of the effect of order showed that reasoning with CF premises reduced logical responding among younger students but had no effect among older students. Results support the idea that there is a transition in the reasoning processes in this age range associated with the nature of the alternatives generation process required for logical reasoning with true and CF causal conditionals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The causal relation between children’s life satisfaction and materialism and the role of advertising exposure

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Opree, S.J.; Buijzen, M.; Eisend, M.; Langner, T.

2011-01-01

This longitudinal survey study was designed to determine the causal direction of the relation between materialism and life satisfaction among children. We tested the hypothesis that life satisfaction negatively affects materialism. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that this effect would be

BOLD Granger causality reflects vascular anatomy.

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J Taylor Webb

Full Text Available A number of studies have tried to exploit subtle phase differences in BOLD time series to resolve the order of sequential activation of brain regions, or more generally the ability of signal in one region to predict subsequent signal in another region. More recently, such lag-based measures have been applied to investigate directed functional connectivity, although this application has been controversial. We attempted to use large publicly available datasets (FCON 1000, ADHD 200, Human Connectome Project to determine whether consistent spatial patterns of Granger Causality are observed in typical fMRI data. For BOLD datasets from 1,240 typically developing subjects ages 7-40, we measured Granger causality between time series for every pair of 7,266 spherical ROIs covering the gray matter and 264 seed ROIs at hubs of the brain's functional network architecture. Granger causality estimates were strongly reproducible for connections in a test and replication sample (n=620 subjects for each group, as well as in data from a single subject scanned repeatedly, both during resting and passive video viewing. The same effect was even stronger in high temporal resolution fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, and was observed independently in data collected during performance of 7 task paradigms. The spatial distribution of Granger causality reflected vascular anatomy with a progression from Granger causality sources, in Circle of Willis arterial inflow distributions, to sinks, near large venous vascular structures such as dural venous sinuses and at the periphery of the brain. Attempts to resolve BOLD phase differences with Granger causality should consider the possibility of reproducible vascular confounds, a problem that is independent of the known regional variability of the hemodynamic response.

Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

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de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

2016-08-01

We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, Jan de [Institute of Physics, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haehl, Felix M. [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University,South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

2016-08-29

We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

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Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

2017-01-01

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

Dual Causality and the Autonomy of Biology.

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Bock, Walter J

2017-03-01

Ernst Mayr's concept of dual causality in biology with the two forms of causes (proximate and ultimate) continues to provide an essential foundation for the philosophy of biology. They are equivalent to functional (=proximate) and evolutionary (=ultimate) causes with both required for full biological explanations. The natural sciences can be classified into nomological, historical nomological and historical dual causality, the last including only biology. Because evolutionary causality is unique to biology and must be included for all complete biological explanations, biology is autonomous from the physical sciences.

The Processing of Causal and Hierarchical Relations in Semantic Memory as Revealed by N400 and Frontal Negativity.

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Xiuling Liang

Full Text Available Most current studies investigating semantic memory have focused on associative (ring-emerald or taxonomic relations (bird-sparrow. Little is known about the question of how causal relations (virus-epidemic are stored and accessed in semantic memory. The goal of this study was to examine the processing of causally related, general associatively related and hierarchically related word pairs when participants were required to evaluate whether pairs of words were related in any way. The ERP data showed that the N400 amplitude (200-500 ms elicited by unrelated related words was more negative than all related words. Furthermore, the late frontal distributed negativity (500-700 ms elicited by causally related words was smaller than hierarchically related words, but not for general associated words. These results suggested the processing of causal relations and hierarchical relations in semantic memory recruited different degrees of cognitive resources, especially for role binding.

A causal link between prediction errors, dopamine neurons and learning.

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Steinberg, Elizabeth E; Keiflin, Ronald; Boivin, Josiah R; Witten, Ilana B; Deisseroth, Karl; Janak, Patricia H

2013-07-01

Situations in which rewards are unexpectedly obtained or withheld represent opportunities for new learning. Often, this learning includes identifying cues that predict reward availability. Unexpected rewards strongly activate midbrain dopamine neurons. This phasic signal is proposed to support learning about antecedent cues by signaling discrepancies between actual and expected outcomes, termed a reward prediction error. However, it is unknown whether dopamine neuron prediction error signaling and cue-reward learning are causally linked. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated dopamine neuron activity in rats in two behavioral procedures, associative blocking and extinction, that illustrate the essential function of prediction errors in learning. We observed that optogenetic activation of dopamine neurons concurrent with reward delivery, mimicking a prediction error, was sufficient to cause long-lasting increases in cue-elicited reward-seeking behavior. Our findings establish a causal role for temporally precise dopamine neuron signaling in cue-reward learning, bridging a critical gap between experimental evidence and influential theoretical frameworks.

Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

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Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

2012-01-01

Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

Causal strength induction from time series data.

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Soo, Kevin W; Rottman, Benjamin M

2018-04-01

One challenge when inferring the strength of cause-effect relations from time series data is that the cause and/or effect can exhibit temporal trends. If temporal trends are not accounted for, a learner could infer that a causal relation exists when it does not, or even infer that there is a positive causal relation when the relation is negative, or vice versa. We propose that learners use a simple heuristic to control for temporal trends-that they focus not on the states of the cause and effect at a given instant, but on how the cause and effect change from one observation to the next, which we call transitions. Six experiments were conducted to understand how people infer causal strength from time series data. We found that participants indeed use transitions in addition to states, which helps them to reach more accurate causal judgments (Experiments 1A and 1B). Participants use transitions more when the stimuli are presented in a naturalistic visual format than a numerical format (Experiment 2), and the effect of transitions is not driven by primacy or recency effects (Experiment 3). Finally, we found that participants primarily use the direction in which variables change rather than the magnitude of the change for estimating causal strength (Experiments 4 and 5). Collectively, these studies provide evidence that people often use a simple yet effective heuristic for inferring causal strength from time series data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The Relevance of Causal Social Construction

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Marques Teresa

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Social constructionist claims are surprising and interesting when they entail that presumably natural kinds are in fact socially constructed. The claims are interesting because of their theoretical and political importance. Authors like Díaz-León argue that constitutive social construction is more relevant for achieving social justice than causal social construction. This paper challenges this claim. Assuming there are socially salient groups that are discriminated against, the paper presents a dilemma: if there were no constitutively constructed social kinds, the causes of the discrimination of existing social groups would have to be addressed, and understanding causal social construction would be relevant to achieve social justice. On the other hand, not all possible constitutively socially constructed kinds are actual social kinds. If an existing social group is constitutively constructed as a social kind K, the fact that it actually exists as a K has social causes. Again, causal social construction is relevant. The paper argues that (i for any actual social kind X, if X is constitutively socially constructed as K, then it is also causally socially constructed; and (ii causal social construction is at least as relevant as constitutive social construction for concerns of social justice. For illustration, I draw upon two phenomena that are presumed to contribute towards the discrimination of women: (i the poor performance effects of stereotype threat, and (ii the silencing effects of gendered language use.

Selecting appropriate cases when tracing causal mechanisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beach, Derek; Pedersen, Rasmus Brun

2016-01-01

The last decade has witnessed resurgence in the interest in studying the causal mechanisms linking causes and outcomes in the social sciences. This article explores the overlooked implications for case selection when tracing mechanisms using in-depth case studies. Our argument is that existing case...... selection guidelines are appropriate for research aimed at making cross-case claims about causal relationships, where case selection is primarily used to control for other causes. However, existing guidelines are not in alignment with case-based research that aims to trace mechanisms, where the goal...... is to unpack the causal mechanism between X and Y, enabling causal inferences to be made because empirical evidence is provided for how the mechanism actually operated in a particular case. The in-depth, within-case tracing of how mechanisms operate in particular cases produces what can be termed mechanistic...

Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics.

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David K Sewell

Full Text Available Adopting successful climate change mitigation policies requires the public to choose how to balance the sometimes competing goals of managing CO2 emissions and achieving economic growth. It follows that collective action on climate change depends on members of the public to be knowledgeable of the causes and economic ramifications of climate change. The existing literature, however, shows that people often struggle to correctly reason about the fundamental accumulation dynamics that drive climate change. Previous research has focused on using analogy to improve people's reasoning about accumulation, which has been met with some success. However, these existing studies have neglected the role economic factors might play in shaping people's decisions in relation to climate change. Here, we introduce a novel iterated decision task in which people attempt to achieve a specific economic goal by interacting with a causal dynamic system in which human economic activities, CO2 emissions, and warming are all causally interrelated. We show that when the causal links between these factors are highlighted, people's ability to achieve the economic goal of the task is enhanced in a way that approaches optimal responding, and avoids dangerous levels of warming.

Could Plasmodium vivax malaria trigger malnutrition? Revisiting the Bradford Hill criteria to assess a causal relationship between two neglected problems

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Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract: The benign characteristics formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infections have recently changed owing to the increasing number of reports of severe vivax malaria resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical complications, probably including undernutrition. Causal inference is a complex process, and arriving at a tentative inference of the causal or non-causal nature of an association is a subjective process limited by the existing evidence. Applying classical epidemiology principles, such as the Bradford Hill criteria, may help foster an understanding of causality and lead to appropriate interventions being proposed that may improve quality of life and decrease morbidity in neglected populations. Here, we examined these criteria in the context of the available data suggesting that vivax malaria may substantially contribute to childhood malnutrition. We found the data supported a role for P. vivax in the etiology of undernutrition in endemic areas. Thus, the application of modern causal inference tools, in future studies, may be useful in determining causation.

Explaining quantum correlations through evolution of causal models

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Harper, Robin; Chapman, Robert J.; Ferrie, Christopher; Granade, Christopher; Kueng, Richard; Naoumenko, Daniel; Flammia, Steven T.; Peruzzo, Alberto

2017-04-01

We propose a framework for the systematic and quantitative generalization of Bell's theorem using causal networks. We first consider the multiobjective optimization problem of matching observed data while minimizing the causal effect of nonlocal variables and prove an inequality for the optimal region that both strengthens and generalizes Bell's theorem. To solve the optimization problem (rather than simply bound it), we develop a genetic algorithm treating as individuals causal networks. By applying our algorithm to a photonic Bell experiment, we demonstrate the trade-off between the quantitative relaxation of one or more local causality assumptions and the ability of data to match quantum correlations.

Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

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Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

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Melby-Lervag, Monica

2012-01-01

The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

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Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.

Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

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Molenaar, Peter C M

2018-06-01

The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

Causality Between Urban Concentration and Environmental Quality

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Amin Pujiati

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Population is concentrated in urban areas can cause the external diseconomies on environment if it exceeds the carrying capacity of the space and the urban economy. Otherwise the quality of the environment is getting better, led to the concentration of population in urban areas are increasingly high. This study aims to analyze the relationship of causality between the urban concentration and environmental quality in urban agglomeration areas. The data used in the study of secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics and the City Government from 2000 to 2013. The analytical method used is the Granger causality and descriptive. Granger causality study results showed no pattern of reciprocal causality, between urban concentration and the quality of the environment, but there unidirectional relationship between the urban concentration and environmental quality. This means that increasing urban concentration led to decreased environmental quality.

Partial Granger causality--eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables.

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Guo, Shuixia; Seth, Anil K; Kendrick, Keith M; Zhou, Cong; Feng, Jianfeng

2008-07-15

Attempts to identify causal interactions in multivariable biological time series (e.g., gene data, protein data, physiological data) can be undermined by the confounding influence of environmental (exogenous) inputs. Compounding this problem, we are commonly only able to record a subset of all related variables in a system. These recorded variables are likely to be influenced by unrecorded (latent) variables. To address this problem, we introduce a novel variant of a widely used statistical measure of causality--Granger causality--that is inspired by the definition of partial correlation. Our 'partial Granger causality' measure is extensively tested with toy models, both linear and nonlinear, and is applied to experimental data: in vivo multielectrode array (MEA) local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the inferotemporal cortex of sheep. Our results demonstrate that partial Granger causality can reveal the underlying interactions among elements in a network in the presence of exogenous inputs and latent variables in many cases where the existing conditional Granger causality fails.

Inductive reasoning about causally transmitted properties.

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Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2008-11-01

Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates' context-sensitive use of taxonomic and food web knowledge to guide reasoning about causal transmission and shows good qualitative agreement between model predictions and human inferences. A second experiment demonstrates strong quantitative and qualitative fits to inferences about a more complex artificial food web. A third experiment investigates human reasoning about complex novel food webs where species have known taxonomic relations. Results demonstrate a double-dissociation between the predictions of our causal model and a related taxonomic model [Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2003). Learning domain structures. In Proceedings of the 25th annual conference of the cognitive science society]: the causal model predicts human inferences about diseases but not genes, while the taxonomic model predicts human inferences about genes but not diseases. We contrast our framework with previous models of category-based induction and previous formal instantiations of intuitive theories, and outline challenges in developing a complete model of context-sensitive reasoning.

Uncertainty, causality and decision: The case of social risks and nuclear risk in particular

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahidji, R.

2012-01-01

Probability and causality are two indispensable tools for addressing situations of social risk. Causal relations are the foundation for building risk assessment models and identifying risk prevention, mitigation and compensation measures. Probability enables us to quantify risk assessments and to calibrate intervention measures. It therefore seems not only natural, but also necessary to make the role of causality and probability explicit in the definition of decision problems in situations of social risk. Such is the aim of this thesis.By reviewing the terminology of risk and the logic of public interventions in various fields of social risk, we gain a better understanding of the notion and of the issues that one faces when trying to model it. We further elaborate our analysis in the case of nuclear safety, examining in detail how methods and policies have been developed in this field and how they have evolved through time. This leads to a number of observations concerning risk and safety assessments.Generalising the concept of intervention in a Bayesian network allows us to develop a variety of causal Bayesian networks adapted to our needs. In this framework, we propose a definition of risk which seems to be relevant for a broad range of issues. We then offer simple applications of our model to specific aspects of the Fukushima accident and other nuclear safety problems. In addition to specific lessons, the analysis leads to the conclusion that a systematic approach for identifying uncertainties is needed in this area. When applied to decision theory, our tool evolves into a dynamic decision model in which acts cause consequences and are causally interconnected. The model provides a causal interpretation of Savage's conceptual framework, solves some of its paradoxes and clarifies certain aspects. It leads us to considering uncertainty with regard to a problem's causal structure as the source of ambiguity in decision-making, an interpretation which corresponds to a

Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban

2011-01-01

The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

Exploring Torus Universes in Causal Dynamical Triangulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Budd, Timothy George; Loll, R.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the search for new observables in nonperturbative quantum gravity, we consider Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in 2+1 dimensions with the spatial topology of a torus. This system is of particular interest, because one can study not only the global scale factor, but also global...... shape variables in the presence of arbitrary quantum fluctuations of the geometry. Our initial investigation focusses on the dynamics of the scale factor and uncovers a qualitatively new behaviour, which leads us to investigate a novel type of boundary conditions for the path integral. Comparing large....... Apart from setting the stage for the analysis of shape dynamics on the torus, the new set-up highlights the role of nontrivial boundaries and topology....

Granger Causality and Unit Roots

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Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

2014-01-01

The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges......, eventually rejecting the null hypothesis, even when the series are independent of each other. Moreover, controlling for these deterministic elements (in the auxiliary regressions of the test) does not preclude the possibility of drawing erroneous inferences. Granger-causality tests should not be used under...

Quantum theory and local causality

CERN Document Server

Hofer-Szabó, Gábor

2018-01-01

This book summarizes the results of research the authors have pursued in the past years on the problem of implementing Bell's notion of local causality in local physical theories and relating it to other important concepts and principles in the foundations of physics such as the Common Cause Principle, Bell's inequalities, the EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen) scenario, and various other locality and causality concepts. The book is intended for philosophers of science with an interest in the formal background of sciences, philosophers of physics and physicists working in foundation of physics.

A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

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Bean, John P.

A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

2003-01-01

We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general spacetime to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp-waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave spacetimes. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality

Testing the causal theory of reference.

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Domaneschi, Filippo; Vignolo, Massimiliano; Di Paola, Simona

2017-04-01

Theories of reference are a crucial research topic in analytic philosophy. Since the publication of Kripke's Naming and Necessity, most philosophers have endorsed the causal/historical theory of reference. The goal of this paper is twofold: (i) to discuss a method for testing experimentally the causal theory of reference for proper names by investigating linguistic usage and (ii) to present the results from two experiments conducted with that method. Data collected in our experiments confirm the causal theory of reference for people proper names and for geographical proper names. A secondary but interesting result is that the semantic domain affects reference assignment: while with people proper names speakers tend to assign the semantic reference, with geographical proper names they are prompted to assign the speaker's reference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

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Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

2004-01-01

We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general space-time to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave space-times. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality.

Are fetal growth impairment and preterm birth causally related to child attention problems and ADHD? Evidence from a comparison between high-income and middle-income cohorts.

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Murray, Elizabeth; Pearson, Rebecca; Fernandes, Michelle; Santos, Iná S; Barros, Fernando C; Victora, Cesar G; Stein, Alan; Matijasevich, Alicia

2016-07-01

Cross-cohort comparison is an established method for improving causal inference. This study compared 2 cohorts, 1 from a high-income country and another from a middle-income country, to (1) establish whether birth exposures may play a causal role in the development of childhood attention problems; and (2) identify whether confounding structures play a different role in parent-reported attention difficulties compared with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnoses. Birth exposures included low birth weight (LBW), small-for-gestational age (SGA), small head circumference (HC) and preterm birth (PTB)). Outcomes of interest were attention difficulties (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, SDQ) and ADHD (Development and Well-Being Assessment, DAWBA). Associations between exposures and outcomes were compared between 7-year-old children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in the UK (N=6849) and the 2004 Pelotas cohort in Brazil (N=3509). For attention difficulties (SDQ), the pattern of association with birth exposures was similar between cohorts: following adjustment, attention difficulties were associated with SGA (OR=1.59, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.19) and small HC (OR=1.64, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.41) in ALSPAC and SGA (OR=1.35, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.75) in Pelotas. For ADHD, however, the pattern of association following adjustment differed markedly between cohorts. In ALSPAC, ADHD was associated with LBW (OR=2.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 4.80) and PTB (OR=2.33, 95% CI 1.23 to 4.42). In the Pelotas cohort, however, ADHD was associated with SGA (OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.82). The findings suggest that fetal growth impairment may play a causal role in the development of attention difficulties in childhood, as similar associations were identified across both cohorts. Confounding structures, however, appear to play a greater role in determining whether a child meets the full diagnostic criteria for ADHD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited

Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Taguri, Masataka; Featherstone, John; Cheng, Jing

2018-01-01

In many health studies, researchers are interested in estimating the treatment effects on the outcome around and through an intermediate variable. Such causal mediation analyses aim to understand the mechanisms that explain the treatment effect. Although multiple mediators are often involved in real studies, most of the literature considered mediation analyses with one mediator at a time. In this article, we consider mediation analyses when there are causally non-ordered multiple mediators. Even if the mediators do not affect each other, the sum of two indirect effects through the two mediators considered separately may diverge from the joint natural indirect effect when there are additive interactions between the effects of the two mediators on the outcome. Therefore, we derive an equation for the joint natural indirect effect based on the individual mediation effects and their interactive effect, which helps us understand how the mediation effect works through the two mediators and relative contributions of the mediators and their interaction. We also discuss an extension for three mediators. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on the prevention of dental caries.

Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

2013-04-01

Climate data are increasingly analyzed by complex network analysis methods, including graph-theoretical approaches [1]. For such analysis, links between localized nodes of climate network are typically quantified by some statistical measures of dependence (connectivity) between measured variables of interest. To obtain information on the directionality of the interactions in the networks, a wide range of methods exists. These can be broadly divided into linear and nonlinear methods, with some of the latter having the theoretical advantage of being model-free, and principally a generalization of the former [2]. However, as a trade-off, this generality comes together with lower accuracy - in particular if the system was close to linear. In an overall stationary system, this may potentially lead to higher variability in the nonlinear network estimates. Therefore, with the same control of false alarms, this may lead to lower sensitivity for detection of real changes in the network structure. These problems are discussed on the example of daily SAT and SLP data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. We first reduce the dimensionality of data using PCA with VARIMAX rotation to detect several dozens of components that together explain most of the data variability. We further construct directed climate networks applying a selection of most widely used methods - variants of linear Granger causality and conditional mutual information. Finally, we assess the stability of the detected directed climate networks by computing them in sliding time windows. To understand the origin of the observed instabilities and their range, we also apply the same procedure to two types of surrogate data: either with non-stationarity in network structure removed, or imposed in a controlled way. In general, the linear methods show stable results in terms of overall similarity of directed climate networks inferred. For instance, for different decades of SAT data, the Spearman correlation of edge

Mind and Meaning: Piaget and Vygotsky on Causal Explanation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beilin, Harry

1996-01-01

Piaget's theory has been characterized as descriptive and not explanatory, not qualifying as causal explanation. Piaget was consistent in showing how his theory was both explanatory and causal. Vygotsky also endorsed causal-genetic explanation but, on the basis of knowledge of only Piaget's earliest works, he claimed that Piaget's theory was not…

Beyond Markov: Accounting for independence violations in causal reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Bob

2018-06-01

Although many theories of causal cognition are based on causal graphical models, a key property of such models-the independence relations stipulated by the Markov condition-is routinely violated by human reasoners. This article presents three new accounts of those independence violations, accounts that share the assumption that people's understanding of the correlational structure of data generated from a causal graph differs from that stipulated by causal graphical model framework. To distinguish these models, experiments assessed how people reason with causal graphs that are larger than those tested in previous studies. A traditional common cause network (Y 1 ←X→Y 2 ) was extended so that the effects themselves had effects (Z 1 ←Y 1 ←X→Y 2 →Z 2 ). A traditional common effect network (Y 1 →X←Y 2 ) was extended so that the causes themselves had causes (Z 1 →Y 1 →X←Y 2 ←Z 2 ). Subjects' inferences were most consistent with the beta-Q model in which consistent states of the world-those in which variables are either mostly all present or mostly all absent-are viewed as more probable than stipulated by the causal graphical model framework. Substantial variability in subjects' inferences was also observed, with the result that substantial minorities of subjects were best fit by one of the other models (the dual prototype or a leaky gate models). The discrepancy between normative and human causal cognition stipulated by these models is foundational in the sense that they locate the error not in people's causal reasoning but rather in their causal representations. As a result, they are applicable to any cognitive theory grounded in causal graphical models, including theories of analogy, learning, explanation, categorization, decision-making, and counterfactual reasoning. Preliminary evidence that independence violations indeed generalize to other judgment types is presented. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Shahbaz, Muhammad

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in the case of Angola, while utilizing the data over the period of 1971–2009. We have applied Lee and Strazicich (2003. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089; 2004. Working Paper. Department of Economics, Appalachian State University) unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Using the Gregory–Hansen structural break cointegration procedure as a complement, we employ the ARDL bounds test to investigate long run relationships. The VECM Granger causality test is subsequently used to examine the direction of causality between economic growth, urbanisation, and electricity consumption. Our results indicate the existence of long run relationships. We further observe evidence in favour of bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanisation and economic growth. Urbanisation and electricity consumption Granger cause each other. We conclude that Angola is energy-dependent country. Consequently, the relevant authorities should boost electricity production as one of the means of achieving sustainable economic development in the long run. - Highlights: • We consider the link between electricity consumption and economic growth in Angola. • Urbanisation is added to turn the research into a trivariate investigation. • Various time series procedures are used. • Results show that increasing electricity will improve economic growth in Angola. • Results show urbanisations reduced economic growth during civil war

Simplifying Causal Complexity: How Interactions between Modes of Causal Induction and Information Availability Lead to Heuristic-Driven Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Grotzer, Tina A.; Tutwiler, M. Shane

2014-01-01

This article considers a set of well-researched default assumptions that people make in reasoning about complex causality and argues that, in part, they result from the forms of causal induction that we engage in and the type of information available in complex environments. It considers how information often falls outside our attentional frame…

Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

Causality in demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

2011-01-01

to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the ... of selected west African countries: Panel ARDL/Granger Causality Analysis. ... among this developing countries and an important revelation for policy implication.

Does self-efficacy causally influence initial smoking cessation? An experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shadel, William G; Martino, Steven C; Setodji, Claude; Cervone, Daniel; Witkiewitz, Katie

2017-10-01

Self-efficacy has been associated with smoking cessation outcomes in many correlational research studies, but strong causal inferences are lacking. This study tested whether self-efficacy affects initial smoking cessation in a laboratory experiment, which will allow for stronger causal inferences in this domain of inquiry. Participants (n=103 motivated adult smokers) were provided with brief cessation treatment over three days in preparation for quitting on a target quit day (TQD). In addition, participants were randomized to one of two standard self-efficacy manipulations in the form of bogus feedback about their chances of quitting smoking. Participants in the Average Chances of Quitting (ACQ) condition took a computerized test and were told (falsely) that the test showed that they had the same chances of quitting as everyone else in the study. Participants in the High Chances of Quitting (HCQ) condition took the same computerized test and were told (falsely) that the test showed that they had a greater chance of quitting compared to everyone else in the study. The main outcome was whether participants were able to quit for 24h on the TQD. Results revealed that HCQ participants had a significantly greater chance of quitting smoking compared to ACQ participants. However, these effects were not attributable to changes in self-efficacy brought about by the manipulation. An exploration of other potential mediators showed that the manipulation actually influenced smoking outcome expectancies, and changes in these outcome expectancies influenced initial smoking cessation. The results highlight the conceptual and empirical challenges with manipulating self-efficacy in the smoking literature. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Causal role for inverse reasoning on obsessive-compulsive symptoms: Preliminary evidence from a cognitive bias modification for interpretation bias study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Shiu F; Grisham, Jessica R

2017-12-01

The inference-based approach (IBA) is a cognitive account of the genesis and maintenance of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). According to the IBA, individuals with OCD are prone to using inverse reasoning, in which hypothetical causes form the basis of conclusions about reality. Several studies have provided preliminary support for an association between features of the IBA and OCD symptoms. However, there are currently no studies that have investigated the proposed causal relationship of inverse reasoning in OCD. In a non-clinical sample (N = 187), we used an interpretive cognitive bias procedure to train a bias towards using inverse reasoning (n = 64), healthy sensory-based reasoning (n = 65), or a control condition (n = 58). Participants were randomly allocated to these training conditions. This manipulation allowed us to assess whether, consistent with the IBA, inverse reasoning training increased compulsive-like behaviours and self-reported OCD symptoms. Results indicated that compared to a control condition, participants trained in inverse reasoning reported more OCD symptoms and were more avoidant of potentially contaminated objects. Moreover, change in inverse reasoning bias was a small but significant mediator of the relationship between training condition and behavioural avoidance. Conversely, training in a healthy (non-inverse) reasoning style did not have any effect on symptoms or behaviour relative to the control condition. As this study was conducted in a non-clinical sample, we were unable to generalise our findings to a clinical population. Findings generally support the IBA model by providing preliminary evidence of a causal role for inverse reasoning in OCD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity Analysis and Bounding of Causal Effects with Alternative Identifying Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Jo, Booil; Vinokur, Amiram D.

2011-01-01

When identification of causal effects relies on untestable assumptions regarding nonidentified parameters, sensitivity of causal effect estimates is often questioned. For proper interpretation of causal effect estimates in this situation, deriving bounds on causal parameters or exploring the sensitivity of estimates to scientifically plausible…

Causal quantum theory and the collapse locality loophole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kent, Adrian

2005-01-01

Causal quantum theory is an umbrella term for ordinary quantum theory modified by two hypotheses: state vector reduction is a well-defined process, and strict local causality applies. The first of these holds in some versions of Copenhagen quantum theory and need not necessarily imply practically testable deviations from ordinary quantum theory. The second implies that measurement events which are spacelike separated have no nonlocal correlations. To test this prediction, which sharply differs from standard quantum theory, requires a precise definition of state vector reduction. Formally speaking, any precise version of causal quantum theory defines a local hidden variable theory. However, causal quantum theory is most naturally seen as a variant of standard quantum theory. For that reason it seems a more serious rival to standard quantum theory than local hidden variable models relying on the locality or detector efficiency loopholes. Some plausible versions of causal quantum theory are not refuted by any Bell experiments to date, nor is it evident that they are inconsistent with other experiments. They evade refutation via a neglected loophole in Bell experiments--the collapse locality loophole--which exists because of the possible time lag between a particle entering a measurement device and a collapse taking place. Fairly definitive tests of causal versus standard quantum theory could be made by observing entangled particles separated by ≅0.1 light seconds

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

2010-01-01

Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

OpenAIRE

Bright, Aimée K.; Feeney, Aidan

2014-01-01

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participan...

Normalizing the causality between time series

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, X. San

2015-08-01

Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

Inference of boundaries in causal sets

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, William J.

2018-05-01

We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in (1+1) -dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons–Hawking–York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space. We discuss algorithms to differentiate between different types of regions, consider when these distinctions are possible, and then apply the algorithms to several spacetime regions. Numerical results indicate the volumes of timelike boundaries can be measured to within 0.5% accuracy for flat boundaries and within 10% accuracy for highly curved boundaries for medium-sized causal sets with N  =  214 spacetime elements.

Spatial hypersurfaces in causal set cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Major, Seth A; Rideout, David; Surya, Sumati

2006-01-01

Within the causal set approach to quantum gravity, a discrete analogue of a spacelike region is a set of unrelated elements, or an antichain. In the continuum approximation of the theory, a moment-of-time hypersurface is well represented by an inextendible antichain. We construct a richer structure corresponding to a thickening of this antichain containing non-trivial geometric and topological information. We find that covariant observables can be associated with such thickened antichains and transitions between them, in classical sequential growth models of causal sets. This construction highlights the difference between the covariant measure on causal set cosmology and the standard sum-over-histories approach: the measure is assigned to completed histories rather than to histories on a restricted spacetime region. The resulting re-phrasing of the sum-over-histories may be fruitful in other approaches to quantum gravity

Analogy in causal inference: rethinking Austin Bradford Hill's neglected consideration.

Science.gov (United States)

Weed, Douglas L

2018-05-01

The purpose of this article was to rethink and resurrect Austin Bradford Hill's "criterion" of analogy as an important consideration in causal inference. In epidemiology today, analogy is either completely ignored (e.g., in many textbooks), or equated with biologic plausibility or coherence, or aligned with the scientist's imagination. None of these examples, however, captures Hill's description of analogy. His words suggest that there may be something gained by contrasting two bodies of evidence, one from an established causal relationship, the other not. Coupled with developments in the methods of systematic assessments of evidence-including but not limited to meta-analysis-analogy can be restructured as a key component in causal inference. This new approach will require that a collection-a library-of known cases of causal inference (i.e., bodies of evidence involving established causal relationships) be developed. This library would likely include causal assessments by organizations such as the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, a process for describing key features of a causal relationship would need to be developed along with what will be considered paradigm cases of causation. Finally, it will be important to develop ways to objectively compare a "new" body of evidence with the relevant paradigm case of causation. Analogy, along with all other existing methods and causal considerations, may improve our ability to identify causal relationships. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

2016-10-01

One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

Multichannel Signal Enhancement using Non-Causal, Time-Domain Filters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Benesty, Jacob

2013-01-01

In the vast amount of time-domain filtering methods for speech enhancement, the filters are designed to be causal. Recently, however, it was shown that the noise reduction and signal distortion capabilities of such single-channel filters can be improved by allowing the filters to be non-causal. W......In the vast amount of time-domain filtering methods for speech enhancement, the filters are designed to be causal. Recently, however, it was shown that the noise reduction and signal distortion capabilities of such single-channel filters can be improved by allowing the filters to be non......-causal, multichannel filters for enhancement based on an orthogonal decomposition is proposed. The evaluation shows that there is a potential gain in noise reduction and signal distortion by introducing non-causality. Moreover, experiments on real-life speech show that we can improve the perceptual quality....

Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

Science.gov (United States)

Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-01-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

Evaluation report on the causal association between humidifier disinfectants and lung injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mina Ha

2016-08-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES As of November 2011, the Korean government recalled and banned humidifier disinfectants (HDs from the market, because four case-control studies and one retrospective epidemiological study proved the association between HDs and lung injury of unknown cause. The report reviewed the causal role of HDs in lung injury based on scientific evidences. METHODS A careful examination on the association between the HDs and lung injury was based on the criteria of causality inference by Hill and the US Surgeon General Expert Committee. RESULTS We found that all the evidences on the causality fulfilled the criteria (strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biologic gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, analogy, consideration of alternative explanations, and cessation of exposure, which proved the unknown cause lung injury reported in 2011 was caused by the HDs. In particular, there was no single reported case of lung injury since the ban in selling HDs in November 2011 as well as before the HDs were sold in markets. CONCLUSIONS Although only a few epidemiological studies in Korea have evaluated the association between lung injury and the use of HDs, those studies contributed to proving the strong association between the use of the HDs and lung injury, based on scientific evidence.

Counterfactual overdetermination vs. the causal exclusion problem.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparber, Georg

2005-01-01

This paper aims to show that a counterfactual approach to causation is not sufficient to provide a solution to the causal exclusion problem in the form of systematic overdetermination. Taking into account the truthmakers of causal counterfactuals provides a strong argument in favour of the identity of causes in situations of translevel, causation.

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric

2012-01-01

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

Causal Relations and Feature Similarity in Children's Inductive Reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Brett K.; Thompson, Susan P.

2007-01-01

Four experiments examined the development of property induction on the basis of causal relations. In the first 2 studies, 5-year-olds, 8-year-olds, and adults were presented with triads in which a target instance was equally similar to 2 inductive bases but shared a causal antecedent feature with 1 of them. All 3 age groups used causal relations…

Causality and subjectivity in discourse : The meaning and use of causal connectives in spontaneous conversation, chat interactions and written text

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sanders, T.J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075243911; Spooren, W.P.M.S.

Many languages of the world have connectives to express causal relations at the discourse level. Often, language users systematically prefer one lexical item (because) over another (even highly similar) one (since) to express a causal relationship. Such choices provide a window on speakers'

Beyond the linear fluctuation-dissipation theorem: the role of causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Colangeli, Matteo

2012-01-01

In this paper we tackle the traditional problem of relating the fluctuations of a system to its response to external forcings and extend the classical theory in order to be able to encompass also nonlinear processes. With this goal, we try to build on Kubo's linear response theory and the response theory recently developed by Ruelle for nonequilibrium systems equipped with an invariant Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen (SRB) measure. Our derivation also sheds light on the link between causality and the possibility of relating fluctuations and response, both at the linear and nonlinear level. We first show, in a rather general setting, how the formalism of Ruelle's response theory can be used to derive in a novel way a generalization of the Kramers–Kronig relations. We then provide a formal extension at each order of nonlinearity of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem for general systems endowed with a smooth invariant measure. Finally, we focus on the physically relevant case of systems weakly perturbed from equilibrium, for which we present explicit fluctuation-dissipation relations linking the susceptibility describing the nth order response of the system with suitably defined correlations taken in the equilibrium ensemble

Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

Science.gov (United States)

West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

2010-01-01

Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fa-Hsuan Lin

Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

Inference of Boundaries in Causal Sets

OpenAIRE

Cunningham, William

2017-01-01

We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in $(1+1)$-dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space...

Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nebiye Yamak

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

A Causal Model of Career Development and Quality of Life of College Students with Disabilities

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Chun, Jina

2017-01-01

Researchers have assumed that social cognitive factors play significant roles in the career development of transition youth and young adults with disabilities and those without disabilities. However, research on the influence of the career decision-making process as a primary causal agent in one's psychosocial outcomes such as perceived level of…

Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

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Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

Estimating causal effects with a non-paranormal method for the design of efficient intervention experiments.

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Teramoto, Reiji; Saito, Chiaki; Funahashi, Shin-ichi

2014-06-30

Knockdown or overexpression of genes is widely used to identify genes that play important roles in many aspects of cellular functions and phenotypes. Because next-generation sequencing generates high-throughput data that allow us to detect genes, it is important to identify genes that drive functional and phenotypic changes of cells. However, conventional methods rely heavily on the assumption of normality and they often give incorrect results when the assumption is not true. To relax the Gaussian assumption in causal inference, we introduce the non-paranormal method to test conditional independence in the PC-algorithm. Then, we present the non-paranormal intervention-calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (NPN-IDA), which incorporates the cumulative nature of effects through a cascaded pathway via causal inference for ranking causal genes against a phenotype with the non-paranormal method for estimating DAGs. We demonstrate that causal inference with the non-paranormal method significantly improves the performance in estimating DAGs on synthetic data in comparison with the original PC-algorithm. Moreover, we show that NPN-IDA outperforms the conventional methods in exploring regulators of the flowering time in Arabidopsis thaliana and regulators that control the browning of white adipocytes in mice. Our results show that performance improvement in estimating DAGs contributes to an accurate estimation of causal effects. Although the simplest alternative procedure was used, our proposed method enables us to design efficient intervention experiments and can be applied to a wide range of research purposes, including drug discovery, because of its generality.

Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation

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Paolo Vineis

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing—notably, the “sufficient-component-cause framework” and the “mark transmission” approach; (b new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the “branched model” in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of “signals” and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of “cancer causes”. We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called “evidential pluralism”. According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both “evidence of difference-making” (e.g. associations and on “evidence of underlying biological mechanisms”. We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission, which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social—are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

Causal hierarchy within the thalamo-cortical network in spike and wave discharges.

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Anna E Vaudano

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Generalised spike wave (GSW discharges are the electroencephalographic (EEG hallmark of absence seizures, clinically characterised by a transitory interruption of ongoing activities and impaired consciousness, occurring during states of reduced awareness. Several theories have been proposed to explain the pathophysiology of GSW discharges and the role of thalamus and cortex as generators. In this work we extend the existing theories by hypothesizing a role for the precuneus, a brain region neglected in previous works on GSW generation but already known to be linked to consciousness and awareness. We analysed fMRI data using dynamic causal modelling (DCM to investigate the effective connectivity between precuneus, thalamus and prefrontal cortex in patients with GSW discharges.We analysed fMRI data from seven patients affected by Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE with frequent GSW discharges and significant GSW-correlated haemodynamic signal changes in the thalamus, the prefrontal cortex and the precuneus. Using DCM we assessed their effective connectivity, i.e. which region drives another region. Three dynamic causal models were constructed: GSW was modelled as autonomous input to the thalamus (model A, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (model B, and precuneus (model C. Bayesian model comparison revealed Model C (GSW as autonomous input to precuneus, to be the best in 5 patients while model A prevailed in two cases. At the group level model C dominated and at the population-level the p value of model C was approximately 1.Our results provide strong evidence that activity in the precuneus gates GSW discharges in the thalamo-(fronto cortical network. This study is the first demonstration of a causal link between haemodynamic changes in the precuneus -- an index of awareness -- and the occurrence of pathological discharges in epilepsy.

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

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McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

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Chaido Dritsaki

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Energy plays an important role in economic development worldwide. The increase of energy consumption showed that CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, and these lead many scientists to push governments of the developing countries to take action for the formulation of environmental policies. Many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions mainly on developing countries. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions for three countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Portugal covering the annual period 1960-2009. The FMOLS and DOLS are then used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The findings of this study reveal that there is a short-run bilateral causal link between the examined variables. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to energy consumption (EC, and economic growth (GDP and a bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This indicates that energy is a force for economic growth both in short and long run as it is driven from economic growth. Moreover, to face the heterogeneity on the three countries of Southern Europe we use the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods.

Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Prasad, Arti

2008-01-01

The goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real GDP for 30 OECD countries. We use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real GDP in Australia, Iceland, Italy, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Korea, Portugal, and the UK. The implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real GDP in these countries. However, for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real GDP

Causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia.

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Farhani, Sahbi; Ozturk, Ilhan

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia over the period of 1971-2012. The long-run relationship is investigated by the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM). The results of the analysis reveal a positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that the financial development in Tunisia has taken place at the expense of environmental pollution. The Tunisian case also shows a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions. This means that the results do not support the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. In addition, the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using Granger causality models and it concludes that financial development plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.

Non-Causal Time-Domain Filters for Single-Channel Noise Reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Benesty, Jacob; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

2012-01-01

suppression and signal distortion by allowing the filters to be non-causal. Non-causal time-domain filters require knowledge of the future, and are therefore not directly implementable. If the observed signal is processed in blocks, however, the non-causal filters are implementable. In this paper, we propose...

Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

2017-01-01

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-01-01

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

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Bentler, Peter M.

2016-01-01

The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.; Menyah, Kojo; Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

2010-01-01

This paper examines the causal relationship between CO 2 emissions, nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984-2007 using a panel error correction model. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions, but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption. The results from the panel Granger causality tests suggest that in the short-run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing CO 2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions. This may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand. (author)

QED representation for the net of causal loops

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Ciolli, Fabio; Ruzzi, Giuseppe; Vasselli, Ezio

2015-06-01

The present work tackles the existence of local gauge symmetries in the setting of Algebraic Quantum Field Theory (AQFT). The net of causal loops, previously introduced by the authors, is a model independent construction of a covariant net of local C*-algebras on any 4-dimensional globally hyperbolic space-time, aimed to capture structural properties of any reasonable quantum gauge theory. Representations of this net can be described by causal and covariant connection systems, and local gauge transformations arise as maps between equivalent connection systems. The present paper completes these abstract results, realizing QED as a representation of the net of causal loops in Minkowski space-time. More precisely, we map the quantum electromagnetic field Fμν, not free in general, into a representation of the net of causal loops and show that the corresponding connection system and the local gauge transformations find a counterpart in terms of Fμν.

Causal learning is collaborative: Examining explanation and exploration in social contexts.

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Legare, Cristine H; Sobel, David M; Callanan, Maureen

2017-10-01

Causal learning in childhood is a dynamic and collaborative process of explanation and exploration within complex physical and social environments. Understanding how children learn causal knowledge requires examining how they update beliefs about the world given novel information and studying the processes by which children learn in collaboration with caregivers, educators, and peers. The objective of this article is to review evidence for how children learn causal knowledge by explaining and exploring in collaboration with others. We review three examples of causal learning in social contexts, which elucidate how interaction with others influences causal learning. First, we consider children's explanation-seeking behaviors in the form of "why" questions. Second, we examine parents' elaboration of meaning about causal relations. Finally, we consider parents' interactive styles with children during free play, which constrains how children explore. We propose that the best way to understand children's causal learning in social context is to combine results from laboratory and natural interactive informal learning environments.

Evidence and causality assessment in environmental epidemiology: methodological aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valleron, A.J.

2000-01-01

There are usually three major steps in the study of the possible impact of environmental factors on health: 1) to demonstrate that there is an association between exposure to the factor and the disease under study; 2) to demonstrate that this association is causal; 3) to evaluate the health benefit that could be obtained by removing the source of exposure. Statistical methods are commonly assumed to provide an objective way of achieving these three steps. This paper reviews some of the conditions that have to be met to allow proper interpretations and to avoid some of the controversies that are often found in health-environment studies. First, it should be remembered that the so-called P value which is used to qualify 'statistically significant' associations between risk factors and diseases does not give any indication of the probability that this association is actual, while far too often it is believed that it does. The probability that an association between an environmental factor and a disease is real could, however, be estimated by using Bayesian methods. These methods require that the a priori probabilities be stated, which is difficult to do in practice. Some directions to overcome this difficulty are presented. Second, the analysis of causality cannot be carried out on statistical grounds alone and the so-called 'causality criteria' are of limited practical interest. Definition of what is a cause, and upon which conditions a candidate factor of a disease can be considered as a cause, deserves much research effort, and careful consideration of the huge literature (mostly outside of the epidemiological field, for example in logic) which is devoted to this subject. Finally, the measurement of the role of a factor in a disease is very often assessed through the use of 'attributable fraction' or 'attributable mortality'. This should be done only when it is demonstrated that the considered factor is causal. Moreover, the interpretation of attributable fractions

Causality and Free Will

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hvorecký, Juraj

2012-01-01

Roč. 19, Supp.2 (2012), s. 64-69 ISSN 1335-0668 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/12/0833 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : conciousness * free will * determinism * causality Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

Causality and skies: is non-refocussing necessary?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bautista, A; Ibort, A; Lafuente, J

2015-01-01

The causal structure of a strongly causal, null pseudo-convex, space-time M is completely characterized in terms of a partial order on its space of skies defined by means of a class of non-negative Legendrian isotopies called sky isotopies. It is also shown that such partial order is determined by the class of future causal celestial curves, that is, curves in the space of light rays which are tangent to skies and such that they determine non-negative sky isotopies. It will also be proved that the space of skies Σ equipped with Low’s (or reconstructive) topology is homeomorphic and diffeomorphic to M under the only additional assumption that M separates skies, that is, that different events determine different skies. The sky-separating property of M is sharp and the previous result provides an answer to the question about the class of space-times whose causal structure, topological and differentiable structure can be reconstructed from their spaces of light rays and skies. These results can be understood as a Malament–Hawking-like theorem stated in terms of the partial order defined on the space of skies. (paper)

A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer S Trueblood

2012-05-01

Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

Scalar field Green functions on causal sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomaan Ahmed, S; Surya, Sumati; Dowker, Fay

2017-01-01

We examine the validity and scope of Johnston’s models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2-dimensional spacetime. We explicitly demonstrate that this is indeed the case in a Riemann normal neighbourhood. In 4d the model can again be used to provide a Green function for the massive scalar field in a Riemann normal neighbourhood which we compare to Bunch and Parker’s continuum Green function. We find that the same prescription can also be used for de Sitter spacetime and the conformally flat patch of anti-de Sitter spacetime. Our analysis then allows us to suggest a generalisation of Johnston’s model for the Green function for a causal set approximated by 3-dimensional flat spacetime. (paper)

Causal Scale of Rotors in a Cardiac System

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Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Kawakatsu, Mari; Dehghani, Nima

2018-04-01

Rotors of spiral waves are thought to be one of the potential mechanisms that maintain atrial fibrillation (AF). However, disappointing clinical outcomes of rotor mapping and ablation to eliminate AF raise a serious doubt on rotors as a macro-scale mechanism that causes the micro-scale behavior of individual cardiomyocytes to maintain spiral waves. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the causal relationship between rotors and spiral waves in a numerical model of cardiac excitation. To accomplish the aim, we described the system in a series of spatiotemporal scales by generating a renormalization group, and evaluated the causal architecture of the system by quantifying causal emergence. Causal emergence is an information-theoretic metric that quantifies emergence or reduction between micro- and macro-scale behaviors of a system by evaluating effective information at each scale. We found that the cardiac system with rotors has a spatiotemporal scale at which effective information peaks. A positive correlation between the number of rotors and causal emergence was observed only up to the scale of peak causation. We conclude that rotors are not the universal mechanism to maintain spiral waves at all spatiotemporal scales. This finding may account for the conflicting benefit of rotor ablation in clinical studies.

Norms and customs: causally important or causally impotent?

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Jones, Todd

2010-01-01

In this article, I argue that norms and customs, despite frequently being described as being causes of behavior in the social sciences and ordinary conversation, cannot really cause behavior. Terms like "norms" and the like seem to refer to philosophically disreputable disjunctive properties. More problematically, even if they do not, or even if there can be disjunctive properties after all, I argue that norms and customs still cannot cause behavior. The social sciences would be better off without referring to properties like norms and customs as if they could be causal.

Causal beliefs about obesity and associated health behaviors: results from a population-based survey

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Coups Elliot J

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several genetic variants are associated with obesity risk. Promoting the notion of genes as a cause for obesity may increase genetically deterministic beliefs and decrease motivation to engage in healthy lifestyle behaviors. Little is known about whether causal beliefs about obesity are associated with lifestyle behaviors. Study objectives were as follows: 1 to document the prevalence of various causal beliefs about obesity (i.e., genes versus lifestyle behaviors, and 2 to determine the association between obesity causal beliefs and self-reported dietary and physical activity behaviors. Methods The study data were drawn from the 2007 Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS. A total of 3,534 individuals were included in the present study. Results Overall, 72% of respondents endorsed the belief that lifestyle behaviors have 'a lot' to do with causing obesity, whereas 19% indicated that inheritance has 'a lot' to do with causing obesity. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that the belief that obesity is inherited was associated with lower reported levels of physical activity (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.77-0.99 and fruit and vegetable consumption (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76-0.99. In contrast, the belief that obesity is caused by lifestyle behaviors was associated with greater reported levels of physical activity (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.03-1.62, but was not associated with fruit and vegetable intake (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 0.90-1.28. Conclusions Causal beliefs about obesity are associated with some lifestyle behaviors. Additional research is needed to determine whether promoting awareness of the genetic determinants of obesity will decrease the extent to which individuals will engage in the lifestyle behaviors essential to healthy weight management.

Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salazar-Ferrer, P

1995-06-01

In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

Outcomes of role stress: a multisample constructive replication.

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Kemery, E R; Bedeian, A G; Mossholder, K W; Touliatos, J

1985-06-01

Responses from four separate samples of accountants and hospital employees provided a constructive replication of the Bedeian and Armenakis (1981) model of the causal nexus between role stress and selected outcome variables. We investigated the relationship between both role ambiguity and role conflict--as specific forms of role stress--and job-related tension, job satisfaction, and propensity to leave, using LISREL IV, a technique capable of providing statistical data for a hypothesized population model, as well as for specific causal paths. Results, which support the Bedeian and Armenakis model, are discussed in light of previous research.

Energy, Metaphysics, and Space: Ernst Mach's Interpretation of Energy Conservation as the Principle of Causality

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Guzzardi, Luca

2014-06-01

This paper discusses Ernst Mach's interpretation of the principle of energy conservation (EC) in the context of the development of energy concepts and ideas about causality in nineteenth-century physics and theory of science. In doing this, it focuses on the close relationship between causality, energy conservation and space in Mach's antireductionist view of science. Mach expounds his thesis about EC in his first historical-epistemological essay, Die Geschichte und die Wurzel des Satzes von der Erhaltung der Arbeit (1872): far from being a new principle, it is used from the early beginnings of mechanics independently from other principles; in fact, EC is a pre-mechanical principle which is generally applied in investigating nature: it is, indeed, nothing but a form of the principle of causality. The paper focuses on the scientific-historical premises and philosophical underpinnings of Mach's thesis, beginning with the classic debate on the validity and limits of the notion of cause by Hume, Kant, and Helmholtz. Such reference also implies a discussion of the relationship between causality on the one hand and space and time on the other. This connection plays a major role for Mach, and in the final paragraphs its importance is argued in order to understand his antireductionist perspective, i.e. the rejection of any attempt to give an ultimate explanation of the world via reduction of nature to one fundamental set of phenomena.

Testing the Causal Direction of Mediation Effects in Randomized Intervention Studies.

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Wiedermann, Wolfgang; Li, Xintong; von Eye, Alexander

2018-05-21

In a recent update of the standards for evidence in research on prevention interventions, the Society of Prevention Research emphasizes the importance of evaluating and testing the causal mechanism through which an intervention is expected to have an effect on an outcome. Mediation analysis is commonly applied to study such causal processes. However, these analytic tools are limited in their potential to fully understand the role of theorized mediators. For example, in a design where the treatment x is randomized and the mediator (m) and the outcome (y) are measured cross-sectionally, the causal direction of the hypothesized mediator-outcome relation is not uniquely identified. That is, both mediation models, x → m → y or x → y → m, may be plausible candidates to describe the underlying intervention theory. As a third explanation, unobserved confounders can still be responsible for the mediator-outcome association. The present study introduces principles of direction dependence which can be used to empirically evaluate these competing explanatory theories. We show that, under certain conditions, third higher moments of variables (i.e., skewness and co-skewness) can be used to uniquely identify the direction of a mediator-outcome relation. Significance procedures compatible with direction dependence are introduced and results of a simulation study are reported that demonstrate the performance of the tests. An empirical example is given for illustrative purposes and a software implementation of the proposed method is provided in SPSS.

Associations between childhood ADHD, gender, and adolescent alcohol and marijuana involvement: A causally informative design.

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Elkins, Irene J; Saunders, Gretchen R B; Malone, Stephen M; Keyes, Margaret A; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

2018-03-01

We report whether the etiology underlying associations of childhood ADHD with adolescent alcohol and marijuana involvement is consistent with causal relationships or shared predispositions, and whether it differs by gender. In three population-based twin samples (N = 3762; 64% monozygotic), including one oversampling females with ADHD, regressions were conducted with childhood inattentive or hyperactive-impulsive symptoms predicting alcohol and marijuana outcomes by age 17. To determine whether ADHD effects were consistent with causality, twin difference analyses divided effects into those shared between twins in the pair and those differing within pairs. Adolescents with more severe childhood ADHD were more likely to initiate alcohol and marijuana use earlier, escalate to frequent or heavy use, and develop symptoms. While risks were similar across genders, females with more hyperactivity-impulsivity had higher alcohol consumption and progressed further toward daily marijuana use than did males. Monozygotic twins with more severe ADHD than their co-twins did not differ significantly on alcohol or marijuana outcomes, however, suggesting a non-causal relationship. When co-occurring use of other substances and conduct/oppositional defiant disorders were considered, hyperactivity-impulsivity remained significantly associated with both substances, as did inattention with marijuana, but not alcohol. Childhood ADHD predicts when alcohol and marijuana use are initiated and how quickly use escalates. Shared familial environment and genetics, rather than causal influences, primarily account for these associations. Stronger relationships between hyperactivity-impulsivity and heavy drinking/frequent marijuana use among adolescent females than males, as well as the greater salience of inattention for marijuana, merit further investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BioCause: Annotating and analysing causality in the biomedical domain.

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Mihăilă, Claudiu; Ohta, Tomoko; Pyysalo, Sampo; Ananiadou, Sophia

2013-01-16

Biomedical corpora annotated with event-level information represent an important resource for domain-specific information extraction (IE) systems. However, bio-event annotation alone cannot cater for all the needs of biologists. Unlike work on relation and event extraction, most of which focusses on specific events and named entities, we aim to build a comprehensive resource, covering all statements of causal association present in discourse. Causality lies at the heart of biomedical knowledge, such as diagnosis, pathology or systems biology, and, thus, automatic causality recognition can greatly reduce the human workload by suggesting possible causal connections and aiding in the curation of pathway models. A biomedical text corpus annotated with such relations is, hence, crucial for developing and evaluating biomedical text mining. We have defined an annotation scheme for enriching biomedical domain corpora with causality relations. This schema has subsequently been used to annotate 851 causal relations to form BioCause, a collection of 19 open-access full-text biomedical journal articles belonging to the subdomain of infectious diseases. These documents have been pre-annotated with named entity and event information in the context of previous shared tasks. We report an inter-annotator agreement rate of over 60% for triggers and of over 80% for arguments using an exact match constraint. These increase significantly using a relaxed match setting. Moreover, we analyse and describe the causality relations in BioCause from various points of view. This information can then be leveraged for the training of automatic causality detection systems. Augmenting named entity and event annotations with information about causal discourse relations could benefit the development of more sophisticated IE systems. These will further influence the development of multiple tasks, such as enabling textual inference to detect entailments, discovering new facts and providing new

Theories of conduct disorder: a causal modelling analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krol, N.P.C.M.; Morton, J.; Bruyn, E.E.J. De

2004-01-01

Background: If a clinician has to make decisions on diagnosis and treatment, he or she is confronted with a variety of causal theories. In order to compare these theories a neutral terminology and notational system is needed. The Causal Modelling framework involving three levels of description –

Violation of causality in f(T) gravity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otalora, G. [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Instituto de Fisica, Valparaiso (Chile); Reboucas, M.J. [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-11-15

In the standard formulation, the f(T) field equations are not invariant under local Lorentz transformations, and thus the theory does not inherit the causal structure of special relativity. Actually, even locally violation of causality can occur in this formulation of f(T) gravity. A locally Lorentz covariant f(T) gravity theory has been devised recently, and this local causality problem seems to have been overcome. The non-locality question, however, is left open. If gravitation is to be described by this covariant f(T) gravity theory there are a number of issues that ought to be examined in its context, including the question as to whether its field equations allow homogeneous Goedel-type solutions, which necessarily leads to violation of causality on non-local scale. Here, to look into the potentialities and difficulties of the covariant f(T) theories, we examine whether they admit Goedel-type solutions. We take a combination of a perfect fluid with electromagnetic plus a scalar field as source, and determine a general Goedel-type solution, which contains special solutions in which the essential parameter of Goedel-type geometries, m{sup 2}, defines any class of homogeneous Goedel-type geometries. We show that solutions of the trigonometric and linear classes (m{sup 2} < 0 and m = 0) are permitted only for the combined matter sources with an electromagnetic field matter component. We extended to the context of covariant f(T) gravity a theorem which ensures that any perfect-fluid homogeneous Goedel-type solution defines the same set of Goedel tetrads h{sub A}{sup μ} up to a Lorentz transformation. We also showed that the single massless scalar field generates Goedel-type solution with no closed time-like curves. Even though the covariant f(T) gravity restores Lorentz covariance of the field equations and the local validity of the causality principle, the bare existence of the Goedel-type solutions makes apparent that the covariant formulation of f(T) gravity

The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Höfler Michael

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Bradford Hill's considerations published in 1965 had an enormous influence on attempts to separate causal from non-causal explanations of observed associations. These considerations were often applied as a checklist of criteria, although they were by no means intended to be used in this way by Hill himself. Hill, however, avoided defining explicitly what he meant by "causal effect". This paper provides a fresh point of view on Hill's considerations from the perspective of counterfactual causality. I argue that counterfactual arguments strongly contribute to the question of when to apply the Hill considerations. Some of the considerations, however, involve many counterfactuals in a broader causal system, and their heuristic value decreases as the complexity of a system increases; the danger of misapplying them can be high. The impacts of these insights for study design and data analysis are discussed. The key analysis tool to assess the applicability of Hill's considerations is multiple bias modelling (Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis; these methods should be used much more frequently.

Temporal and Statistical Information in Causal Structure Learning

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Teresa; Frosch, Caren; Patrick, Fiona; Lagnado, David

2015-01-01

Three experiments examined children's and adults' abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a 3-variable mechanical…

Ends, Principles, and Causal Explanation in Educational Justice

Science.gov (United States)

Dum, Jenn

2017-01-01

Many principles characterize educational justice in terms of the relationship between educational inputs, outputs and distributive standards. Such principles depend upon the "causal pathway view" of education. It is implicit in this view that the causally effective aspects of education can be understood as separate from the normative…

The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

2012-08-05

We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection--a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity.

Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

2014-01-01

We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

Science.gov (United States)

CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality

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Sami Saafi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to investigate the linear and nonlinear causality between a set of alternative tax burden ratios and economic growth in 23 OECD countries. To that end, the linear causality approach of Toda– Yamamoto (1995 and the nonparametric causality method of Kyrtsou and Labys (2006 are applied to annual data spanning from 1970 to 2014. Results obtained from the nonlinear causality test tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the tax structure–growth relationship in 19 of the 23 OECD countries. In the majority of the countries under investigation, the evidence is in line with the growth hypothesis where causality running from economic growth to tax burden ratios was detected in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, and Norway. The opposite causality running from tax structure to economic growth was found in Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden. In contrast, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in Austria, Italy, Luxembourg, and the USA, whereas the feedback hypothesis was supported in Turkey and the UK. Additional robustness checks show that when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from positive tax burden shocks to positive per capita GDP shocks for Belgium, France, and Turkey. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the tax structure-economic growth relationships should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the test-dependent and country-specific results.

The discourse of causal explanations in school science

Science.gov (United States)

Slater, Tammy Jayne Anne

Researchers and educators working from a systemic functional linguistic perspective have provided a body of work on science discourse which offers an excellent starting point for examining the linguistic aspects of the development of causal discourse in school science, discourse which Derewianka (1995) claimed is critical to success in secondary school. No work has yet described the development of causal language by identifying the linguistic features present in oral discourse or by comparing the causal discourse of native and non-native (ESL) speakers of English. The current research responds to this gap by examining the oral discourse collected from ESL and non-ESL students at the primary and high school grades. Specifically, it asks the following questions: (1) How do the teachers and students in these four contexts develop causal explanations and their relevant taxonomies through classroom interactions? (2) What are the causal discourse features being used by the students in these four contexts to construct oral causal explanations? The findings of the social practice analysis showed that the teachers in the four contexts differed in their approaches to teaching, with the primary school mainstream teacher focusing largely on the hands-on practice , the primary school ESL teacher moving from practice to theory, the high school mainstream teacher moving from theory to practice, and the high school ESL teacher relying primarily on theory. The findings from the quantitative, small corpus approach suggest that the developmental path of cause which has been identified in the writing of experts shows up not only in written texts but also in the oral texts which learners construct. Moreover, this move appears when the discourse of high school ESL and non-ESL students is compared, suggesting a developmental progression in the acquisition of these features by these students. The findings also reveal that the knowledge constructed, as shown by the concept maps created

Nonparametric Identification of Causal Effects under Temporal Dependence

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Dafoe, Allan

2018-01-01

Social scientists routinely address temporal dependence by adopting a simple technical fix. However, the correct identification strategy for a causal effect depends on causal assumptions. These need to be explicated and justified; almost no studies do so. This article addresses this shortcoming by offering a precise general statement of the…

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naveen Musunuru

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

On Storks and Babies: Correlation, Causality and Field Experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lambrecht Anja

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The explosion of available data has created much excitement among marketing practitioners about their ability to better understand the impact of marketing investments. Big data allows for detecting patterns and often it seems plausible to interpret them as causal. While it is quite obvious that storks do not bring babies, marketing relationships are usually less clear. Apparent “causalities” often fail to hold up under examination. If marketers want to be sure not to walk into a causality trap, they need to conduct field experiments to detect true causal relationships. In the present digital environment, experiments are easier than ever to execute. However, they need to be prepared and interpreted with great care in order to deliver meaningful and genuinely causal results that help improve marketing decisions.

Implications of causality for quantum biology - I: topology change

Science.gov (United States)

Scofield, D. F.; Collins, T. C.

2018-06-01

A framework for describing the causal, topology changing, evolution of interacting biomolecules is developed. The quantum dynamical manifold equations (QDMEs) derived from this framework can be related to the causality restrictions implied by a finite speed of light and to Planck's constant to set a transition frequency scale. The QDMEs imply conserved stress-energy, angular-momentum and Noether currents. The functional whose extremisation leads to this result provides a causal, time-dependent, non-equilibrium generalisation of the Hohenberg-Kohn theorem. The system of dynamical equations derived from this functional and the currents J derived from the QDMEs are shown to be causal and consistent with the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This has the potential of allowing living systems to be quantum mechanically distinguished from non-living ones.

On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

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Srinivasan Palamalai

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Apergis, Nicholas [Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Karaoli and Dimitriou 80, Piraeus, ATTIKI 18534 (Greece); Payne, James E. [Department of Economics, Illinois State University, Normal, IL 61790-4200 (United States); Menyah, Kojo [London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University, 84 Moorgate, London, EC2M 6SQ (United Kingdom); Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

2010-09-15

This paper examines the causal relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions, nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984-2007 using a panel error correction model. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions, but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption. The results from the panel Granger causality tests suggest that in the short-run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions. This may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand. (author)

I can do that: the impact of implicit theories on leadership role model effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, Crystal L; Burnette, Jeni L; Innella, Audrey N

2012-02-01

This research investigates the role of implicit theories in influencing the effectiveness of successful role models in the leadership domain. Across two studies, the authors test the prediction that incremental theorists ("leaders are made") compared to entity theorists ("leaders are born") will respond more positively to being presented with a role model before undertaking a leadership task. In Study 1, measuring people's naturally occurring implicit theories of leadership, the authors showed that after being primed with a role model, incremental theorists reported greater leadership confidence and less anxious-depressed affect than entity theorists following the leadership task. In Study 2, the authors demonstrated the causal role of implicit theories by manipulating participants' theory of leadership ability. They replicated the findings from Study 1 and demonstrated that identification with the role model mediated the relationship between implicit theories and both confidence and affect. In addition, incremental theorists outperformed entity theorists on the leadership task.

Examining causal components and a mediating process underlying self-generated health arguments for exercise and smoking cessation.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Austin S; Rothman, Alexander J; Vander Weg, Mark W; Christensen, Alan J

2013-12-01

Self-persuasion-generating one's own arguments for engaging in a specific behavior-can be an effective strategy to promote health behavior change, yet the causal processes that explain why it is effective are not well-specified. We sought to elucidate specific causal components and a mediating process of self-persuasion in two health behavior domains: physical activity and smoking. In two experiments, participants were randomized to write or read arguments about regular exercise (Study 1: N = 76; college students) or smoking cessation (Study 2: N = 107; daily smokers). In Study 2, we also manipulated the argument content (matched vs. mismatched participants' own concerns about smoking) to isolate its effect from the effect of argument source (self vs. other). Study outcomes included participants' reports of argument ratings, attitudes, behavioral intentions (Studies 1 & 2), and cessation attempts at 1 month (Study 2). In Study 1, self-generated arguments about exercise were evaluated more positively than other arguments (p = .01, d = .63), and this biased processing mediated the self-generated argument effect on attitudes toward exercise (β = .08, 95% CI = .01, .18). In Study 2, the findings suggested that biased processing occurs because self-generated argument content matches people's own health concerns and not because of the argument source (self vs. other). In addition, self-generated arguments indirectly led to greater behavior change intentions (Studies 1 & 2) and a greater likelihood of a smoking cessation attempt (Study 2). The findings elucidate a causal component and a mediating process that explain why self-persuasion and related behavior change interventions, such as motivational interviewing, are effective. Findings also suggest that self-generated arguments may be an efficient way to deliver message interventions aimed at changing health behaviors.

Explaining through causal mechanisms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biesbroek, Robbert; Dupuis, Johann; Wellstead, Adam

2017-01-01

This paper synthesizes and builds on recent critiques of the resilience literature; namely that the field has largely been unsuccessful in capturing the complexity of governance processes, in particular cause–effects relationships. We demonstrate that absence of a causal model is reflected in the

They Work Together to Roar: Kindergartners' Understanding of an Interactive Causal Task

Science.gov (United States)

Solis, S. Lynneth; Grotzer, Tina A.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate kindergartners' exploration of interactive causality during their play with a pair of toy sound blocks. Interactive causality refers to a type of causal pattern in which two entities interact to produce a causal force, as in particle attraction and symbiotic relationships. Despite being prevalent in nature,…

On the conceptual distinction of general causality orientations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Martin Hammershøj

electronic questionnaires of dispositional personality traits (NEO-FFI) and general causality orientations (GCOS). Proposed separate latent models and alternative shared latent models of the underlying individual differences constructs had been developed in a previous exploratory study (Olesen, Thomsen......, that is general causality orientations can be understood as characteristic adaptations of dispositional traits....

An Information Processing Approach to Children's Causal Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegler, Robert S.

This paper questions evidence for the thesis that causal reasoning of older children is more logical than that of younger ones, and describes two experiments which attempted to determine (1) whether there are true developmental differences in causal reasoning, and (2) what explanations for developmental differences can be supported. In the first…

Weighting-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Mediation Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Guanglei; Qin, Xu; Yang, Fan

2018-01-01

Through a sensitivity analysis, the analyst attempts to determine whether a conclusion of causal inference could be easily reversed by a plausible violation of an identification assumption. Analytic conclusions that are harder to alter by such a violation are expected to add a higher value to scientific knowledge about causality. This article…

Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

2014-07-01

One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test

Science.gov (United States)

Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Fernández-Macho, J.; Neumann, M. B.; Faria, S. H.

2018-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of EU peripheral (so-called PIIGS) stock market indices and the S&P Europe 350 index (SPEURO), as a European benchmark market, over the pre-crisis (2004-2007) and crisis (2008-2011) periods. We computed a rolling-window wavelet correlation for the market returns and applied a non-linear Granger causality test to the wavelet decomposition coefficients of these stock market returns. Our results show that the correlation is stronger for the crisis than for the pre-crisis period. The stock market indices from Portugal, Italy and Spain were more interconnected among themselves during the crisis than with the SPEURO. The stock market from Portugal is the most sensitive and vulnerable PIIGS member, whereas the stock market from Greece tends to move away from the European benchmark market since the 2008 financial crisis till 2011. The non-linear causality test indicates that in the first three wavelet scales (intraweek, weekly and fortnightly) the number of uni-directional and bi-directional causalities is greater during the crisis than in the pre-crisis period, because of financial contagion. Furthermore, the causality analysis shows that the direction of the Granger cause-effect for the pre-crisis and crisis periods is not invariant in the considered time-scales, and that the causality directions among the studied stock markets do not seem to have a preferential direction. These results are relevant to better understand the behaviour of vulnerable stock markets, especially for investors and policymakers.

Information–theoretic implications of quantum causal structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaves, Rafael; Majenz, Christian; Gross, David

2015-01-01

. However, no systematic method is known for treating such problems in a way that generalizes to quantum systems. Here, we describe a general algorithm for computing information–theoretic constraints on the correlations that can arise from a given causal structure, where we allow for quantum systems as well...... as classical random variables. The general technique is applied to two relevant cases: first, we show that the principle of information causality appears naturally in our framework and go on to generalize and strengthen it. Second, we derive bounds on the correlations that can occur in a networked architecture......It is a relatively new insight of classical statistics that empirical data can contain information about causation rather than mere correlation. First algorithms have been proposed that are capable of testing whether a presumed causal relationship is compatible with an observed distribution...

Comparison of a noncausal with a causal relativistic wave-packet evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro, A.N. de; Jabs, A.

1991-01-01

In order to study causality violation in more detail we contrast the Klein-Gordon wave packet of Rosenstein und Usher with the Dirac wave packet of Bakke and Wergeland. Both packets are initially localized with exponentially bounded tails but just outside the condition of the general Hegerfeldt theorem for causality violation. It turns out that the wave packet of Bakke and Wergeland exhibits all the features investigated by Rosenstein and Usher, except that it never violates relativistic causality. Thus none of those features, in particular the back- and forerunners emerging from the light cone, can be held responsible for causality violation, and the Ruijsenaars integral is not necessarily a measure of the amount of causality violation. (orig.)

Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

2009-12-01

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

Efficient nonparametric estimation of causal mediation effects

OpenAIRE

Chan, K. C. G.; Imai, K.; Yam, S. C. P.; Zhang, Z.

2016-01-01

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. However, all of the existing mediation analysis methods rely on parametric modeling assumptions in one way or another, typically requiring researchers to specify multiple regression models involving the treat...

The Continuum Limit of Causal Fermion Systems

OpenAIRE

Finster, Felix

2016-01-01

This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries." The dynamics is described by...

On causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goedecke, G.H.

1984-01-01

The differential-difference (DD) motion equations of the causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics developed by the author in 1975 are shown to possess only nonrunaway, causal solutions with no discontinuities in particle velocity or position. As an example, the DD equation solution for the problem of an electromagnetic shock incident on an initially stationary charged particle is contrasted with the standard Abraham-Lorentz equation solution. The general Cauchy problem for these DD motion equations is discussed. In general, in order to uniquely determine a solution, the initial data must be more detailed than the standard Cauchy data of initial position and velocity. Conditions are given under which the standard Cauchy data will determine the DD equation solutions to sufficient practical accuracy

Corporate Governance and Financial Performance Nexus: Any Bidirectional Causality?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alley Ibrahim S.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Most studies on corporate governance recognize endogeneity in the nexus between corporate governance and financial performance. Little attention has, however, been paid to the direction of causality between the two phenomena, and hence the Vector Error Correction (VEC model, which allows for endogenous determination of the direction of causality, has not been widely employed. This study fills that gap by estimating the nexus and the direction of causality using the VEC model to analyze panel data on selected listed firms in Nigeria. The results agree with the findings of most previous studies that corporate governance significantly affects financial performance. Board skills, board composition and management skills enhanced financial performance indicators – return on equity (ROE, return on asset (ROA and net profit margin (NPM; in many occasions, significantly. Board size and audit committee size did not, and can actually undermine financial performance. More importantly, financial performance did not significantly affect corporate governance. On the basis of the lag structure of the VEC model, this study affirms unidirectional causality in the nexus, running from corporate governance to financial performance, nullifying the hypothesis of bidirectional causality in the nexus.

Determining the causal relationships among entrepreneurship, educational attainment and per capita GDP in high-income OECD countries

OpenAIRE

Feyza BALAN; Seda OZEKICIOGLU; Cuneyt KILIC

2016-01-01

The entrepreneurship has been evaluated as playing a central role in explaining economic growth by many economists and policy makers. This role has recently been the subject of a growing literature. However, entrepreneurship literature generally has been focused on evaluating the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth. This study will evaluate the causal relationships among women’s and men’s entrepreneurship, women’s and men’s educational attainment and per capita GDP in...

Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriatik Hoxha

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

Contrasting cue-density effects in causal and prediction judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Vadillo, Miguel A; Musca, Serban C; Blanco, Fernando; Matute, Helena

2011-02-01

Many theories of contingency learning assume (either explicitly or implicitly) that predicting whether an outcome will occur should be easier than making a causal judgment. Previous research suggests that outcome predictions would depart from normative standards less often than causal judgments, which is consistent with the idea that the latter are based on more numerous and complex processes. However, only indirect evidence exists for this view. The experiment presented here specifically addresses this issue by allowing for a fair comparison of causal judgments and outcome predictions, both collected at the same stage with identical rating scales. Cue density, a parameter known to affect judgments, is manipulated in a contingency learning paradigm. The results show that, if anything, the cue-density bias is stronger in outcome predictions than in causal judgments. These results contradict key assumptions of many influential theories of contingency learning.

The connexion of duality and causal properties for generalized free fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garber, W.D.

1975-01-01

It is shown that the time-slice axiom and the diamond property are equivalent for the generalized free field. If, in addition, there is a mass gap, duality is equivalent to either causality requirement. It is further shown that the local rings associated with certain space-time regions are factors in the case of causal generalized free fields with mass gap. Necessary and sufficient conditions for causality and duality and some examples for causal and acausal generalized free fields are also given. (orig.) [de

Human error and the problem of causality in analysis of accidents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1990-01-01

, designers or managers have played a major role. There are, however, several basic problems in analysis of accidents and identification of human error. This paper addresses the nature of causal explanations and the ambiguity of the rules applied for identification of the events to include in analysis......Present technology is characterized by complexity, rapid change and growing size of technical systems. This has caused increasing concern with the human involvement in system safety. Analyses of the major accidents during recent decades have concluded that human errors on part of operators...

Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

CERN Document Server

Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

2016-01-01

This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

Causal pathways between substance use disorders and personality pathology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verheul, R.; van den Brink, W.

2005-01-01

A high co-occurrence between personality and substance use disorders suggests causal relationships between these conditions. Most empirical evidence strongly supports causal pathways in which (pathological) personality traits contribute to the development of a substance use disorder (i.e., primary

Bilirubin as a potential causal factor in type 2 diabetes risk: a Mendelian randomization study

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Abbasi, Ali; Deetman, Petronella E.; Corpeleijn, Eva; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O.B.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z.; Bakker, Stephan J.L.

2014-01-01

Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the nature of the relationship remains unknown. We performed Mendelian randomization in a prospective cohort of 3,381 participants free of diabetes at baseline (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%). We used rs6742078 located in UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus as instrumental variable (IV) to study a potential causal effect of serum total bilirubin on T2D risk. T2D developed in a total of 210 (6.2%) participants during a median follow-up of 7.8 years. In adjusted analyses, rs6742078, which explained 19.5% of bilirubin variation, was strongly associated with total bilirubin (a 0.68-SD increase in bilirubin levels per T allele; Pbilirubin levels, we observed a 25% (OR 0.75 [95%CI, 0.62-0.92]; P=0.004) lower risk of T2D. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the causal risk reduction for T2D was estimated to be 42% (causal ORIVestimation per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin 0.58 [95%CI, 0.39-0.84]; P=0.005), which was comparable to the observational estimate (Durbin-Wu-Hausman chi-square test Pfor difference =0.19). These novel results provide evidence that elevated bilirubin is causally associated with risk of T2D and support its role as a protective determinant. PMID:25368098

Bulk viscous cosmology with causal transport theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piattella, Oliver F.; Fabris, Júlio C.; Zimdahl, Winfried

2011-01-01

We consider cosmological scenarios originating from a single imperfect fluid with bulk viscosity and apply Eckart's and both the full and the truncated Müller-Israel-Stewart's theories as descriptions of the non-equilibrium processes. Our principal objective is to investigate if the dynamical properties of Dark Matter and Dark Energy can be described by a single viscous fluid and how such description changes when a causal theory (Müller-Israel-Stewart's, both in its full and truncated forms) is taken into account instead of Eckart's non-causal one. To this purpose, we find numerical solutions for the gravitational potential and compare its behaviour with the corresponding ΛCDM case. Eckart's and the full causal theory seem to be disfavoured, whereas the truncated theory leads to results similar to those of the ΛCDM model for a bulk viscous speed in the interval 10 −11 || cb 2 ∼ −8

In a distinguishing spacetime the horismos relation generates the causal relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minguzzi, E

2009-01-01

It is proved that in a distinguishing spacetime the horismos relation E + = J + /I + generates the causal relation J + . In other words two causally related events are joined by a chain of horismotically related events, or again, the causal relation is the smallest transitive relation containing the horismos relation. The result is sharp in the sense that the distinction cannot be weakened to future or past distinction. Finally, it is proved that a spacetime in which the horismos relation generates the causal relation is necessarily non-total imprisoning.

Financial networks based on Granger causality: A case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Papana, A.; Kyrtsou, C.; Kugiumtzis, D.; Diks, C.

Connectivity analysis is performed on a long financial record of 21 international stock indices employing a linear and a nonlinear causality measure, the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI) and the partial mutual information on mixed embedding (PMIME), respectively. Both measures aim to

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

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Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-03-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Causality between income and emission. A country group-specific econometric analysis

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Coondoo, Dipankor; Dinda, Soumyananda

2002-01-01

Empirical studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income. Customarily, in the diagram of EKC the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis. Thus, it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa. The validity of this presumption is now being questioned. It is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other. In this paper, we present the results of a study of income-CO 2 emission causality based on a Granger causality test to cross-country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita CO 2 emission data. Briefly, our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups. For the developed country groups of North America and Western Europe (and also for Eastern Europe) the causality is found to run from emission to income. For the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan causality from income to emission is obtained. Finally, for the country groups of Asia and Africa the causality is found to be bi-directional. The regression equations estimated as part of the Granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of North America and Western Europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean, and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income. In contrast, for the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission. Finally, causality being bi-directional for the country groups of Asia and Africa, the income and the emission growth

Causality between income and emission. A country group-specific econometric analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coondoo, Dipankor [Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 B.T. Road, 35 Kolkata (India); Dinda, Soumyananda [S.R. Fatepuria College, Beldanga, West Bengal, Murshidabad (India)

2002-03-01

Empirical studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income. Customarily, in the diagram of EKC the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis. Thus, it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa. The validity of this presumption is now being questioned. It is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other. In this paper, we present the results of a study of income-CO{sub 2} emission causality based on a Granger causality test to cross-country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita CO{sub 2} emission data. Briefly, our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups. For the developed country groups of North America and Western Europe (and also for Eastern Europe) the causality is found to run from emission to income. For the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan causality from income to emission is obtained. Finally, for the country groups of Asia and Africa the causality is found to be bi-directional. The regression equations estimated as part of the Granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of North America and Western Europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean, and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income. In contrast, for the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission. Finally, causality being bi-directional for the country groups of Asia and Africa, the income and the

The causal effect of family income on child health in the U.K.

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Kuehnle, Daniel

2014-07-01

Recent studies examining the effect of family income on child health have been unable to account for the endogeneity of income. Using data from a British cohort study, we address this gap by exploiting exogenous variation in local labour market characteristics to instrument for family income. We estimate the causal effect of family income on different measures of child health and explore the role of potential transmission mechanisms. We find that income has a very small but significant causal effect on subjective child health and no significant effect on chronic health conditions, apart from respiratory illnesses. Using the panel structure, we show that the timing of income does not matter for young children. Moreover, our results provide further evidence that parental health does not drive a spurious relationship between family income and child health. Our study implies that financial transfers are unlikely to deliver substantial improvements in child health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2013-07-26

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faming Liang

Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

2013-01-01

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

What is the nature of causality in the brain? - Inherently probabilistic. Comment on "Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks" by M. Mannino and S.L. Bressler

Science.gov (United States)

Dhamala, Mukesh

2015-12-01

Understanding cause-and-effect (causal) relations from observations concerns all sciences including neuroscience. Appropriately defining causality and its nature, though, has been a topic of active discussion for philosophers and scientists for centuries. Although brain research, particularly functional neuroimaging research, is now moving rapidly beyond identification of brain regional activations towards uncovering causal relations between regions, the nature of causality has not be been thoroughly described and resolved. In the current review article [1], Mannino and Bressler take us on a beautiful journey into the history of the work on causality and make a well-reasoned argument that the causality in the brain is inherently probabilistic. This notion is consistent with brain anatomy and functions, and is also inclusive of deterministic cases of inputs leading to outputs in the brain.

Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

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Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Concepts in causality: chemically induced human urinary bladder cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lower, G.M. Jr.

1982-01-01

A significant portion of the incidence of human urinary bladder cancer can be attributed to occupational and cultural (tobacco smoking) situations associated with exposures to various arylamines, many of which represent established human carcinogens. A brief historical overview of research in bladder cancer causality indicates that the identification of causal agents and causal mechanism has been approached and rests upon information gathered at the organismal (geographical/historical), cellular, and molecular levels of biologic organization. This viewpoint speaks of a natural evolution within the biomedical sciences; a natural evolution from descriptive approaches to mechanistic approaches; and a natural evolution from more or less independent discipline-oriented approaches to hierarchically organized multidisciplinary approaches. Available information relevant to bladder cancer causality can be readily integrated into general conceptual frameworks to yield a hierarchial view of the natural history of urinary bladder cancer, a view consistent with contemporary natural systems and information theory and perhaps relevant also to other chemically induced epithelial cancers. Such frameworks are useful in appreciating the spatial and temporal boundaries and interrelationships in causality and the conceptual interrelationships within the biomedical sciences. Recent approaches in molecular epidemiology and the assessment of relative individual susceptibility to bladder cancer indicate that such frameworks are useful in forming hypotheses

A Transient Dopamine Signal Represents Avoidance Value and Causally Influences the Demand to Avoid

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Pultorak, Katherine J.; Schelp, Scott A.; Isaacs, Dominic P.; Krzystyniak, Gregory

2018-01-01

Abstract While an extensive literature supports the notion that mesocorticolimbic dopamine plays a role in negative reinforcement, recent evidence suggests that dopamine exclusively encodes the value of positive reinforcement. In the present study, we employed a behavioral economics approach to investigate whether dopamine plays a role in the valuation of negative reinforcement. Using rats as subjects, we first applied fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV) to determine that dopamine concentration decreases with the number of lever presses required to avoid electrical footshock (i.e., the economic price of avoidance). Analysis of the rate of decay of avoidance demand curves, which depict an inverse relationship between avoidance and increasing price, allows for inference of the worth an animal places on avoidance outcomes. Rapidly decaying demand curves indicate increased price sensitivity, or low worth placed on avoidance outcomes, while slow rates of decay indicate reduced price sensitivity, or greater worth placed on avoidance outcomes. We therefore used optogenetics to assess how inducing dopamine release causally modifies the demand to avoid electrical footshock in an economic setting. Increasing release at an avoidance predictive cue made animals more sensitive to price, consistent with a negative reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a worse outcome than expected). Increasing release at avoidance made animals less sensitive to price, consistent with a positive reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a better outcome than expected). These data demonstrate that transient dopamine release events represent the value of avoidance outcomes and can predictably modify the demand to avoid. PMID:29766047

Moment problems and the causal set approach to quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ash, Avner; McDonald, Patrick

2003-01-01

We study a collection of discrete Markov chains related to the causal set approach to modeling discrete theories of quantum gravity. The transition probabilities of these chains satisfy a general covariance principle, a causality principle, and a renormalizability condition. The corresponding dynamics are completely determined by a sequence of non-negative real coupling constants. Using techniques related to the classical moment problem, we give a complete description of any such sequence of coupling constants. We prove a representation theorem: every discrete theory of quantum gravity arising from causal set dynamics satisfying covariance, causality, and renormalizability corresponds to a unique probability distribution function on the non-negative real numbers, with the coupling constants defining the theory given by the moments of the distribution

Drawing causal inferences using propensity scores: a practical guide for community psychologists.

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Lanza, Stephanie T; Moore, Julia E; Butera, Nicole M

2013-12-01

Confounding present in observational data impede community psychologists' ability to draw causal inferences. This paper describes propensity score methods as a conceptually straightforward approach to drawing causal inferences from observational data. A step-by-step demonstration of three propensity score methods-weighting, matching, and subclassification-is presented in the context of an empirical examination of the causal effect of preschool experiences (Head Start vs. parental care) on reading development in kindergarten. Although the unadjusted population estimate indicated that children with parental care had substantially higher reading scores than children who attended Head Start, all propensity score adjustments reduce the size of this overall causal effect by more than half. The causal effect was also defined and estimated among children who attended Head Start. Results provide no evidence for improved reading if those children had instead received parental care. We carefully define different causal effects and discuss their respective policy implications, summarize advantages and limitations of each propensity score method, and provide SAS and R syntax so that community psychologists may conduct causal inference in their own research.

Causal Modelling in Evaluation Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Winteler, Adolf

1983-01-01

A study applied path analysis methods, using new techniques of causal analysis, to the problem of predicting the achievement, dropout rate, and satisfaction of university students. Besides providing explanations, the technique indicates possible remedial measures. (MSE)

Optimal relaxed causal sampler using sampled-date system theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shekhawat, Hanumant; Meinsma, Gjerrit

This paper studies the design of an optimal relaxed causal sampler using sampled data system theory. A lifted frequency domain approach is used to obtain the existence conditions and the optimal sampler. A state space formulation of the results is also provided. The resulting optimal relaxed causal

Causality and symmetry in cosmology and the conformal group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segal, I.E.

1977-01-01

A new theoretic postulate in fundamental physics is considered which is called the chronometric principle because it deals primarily with the nature of time, or its dual or conjugate, energy. Conformality is equivalent to causality. Thus, the group of all local causality-preserving transformations in the vicinity of a point of Minkowski space is, as a local Lie group, identical with the conformal group. The same statement made globally on Minkowski space is: The set of all vector fields on Minkowski space which generate smooth local causality-preserving transformations is identical with the set of all conformal vector fields. The main validation for the chronometric principle is in cosmology or ultramacroscopic physics. Therefore this principle is illustrated along the lines of the red shift. This principle in combination with quantum field theory leads to a convergent and causal description of particle production in which nonlinearities are supplanted by more sophisticated and comprehensive actions for the fundamental symmetry groups. 11 references

The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdal, Guelistan; Erdal, Hilmi; Esenguen, Kemal

2008-01-01

This paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption (EC) and real Gross National Product (GNP) for Turkey during 1970-2006. We employ unit root tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Philips-Perron (PP), Johansen cointegration test, and Pair-wise Granger causality test to examine relation between EC and GNP. Our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non-stationary. However, first differences of these series lead to stationarity. Further, the results indicate that EC and GNP are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from EC to GNP and vice versa. This means that an increase in EC directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further EC. This bidirectional causality relationship between EC and GNP determined for Turkey at 1970-2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

Network and system diagrams revisited: Satisfying CEA requirements for causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perdicoulis, Anastassios; Piper, Jake

2008-01-01

Published guidelines for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) have called for the identification of cause-and-effect relationships, or causality, challenging researchers to identify methods that can possibly meet CEA's specific requirements. Together with an outline of these requirements from CEA key literature, the various definitions of cumulative effects point to the direction of a method for causality analysis that is visually-oriented and qualitative. This article consequently revisits network and system diagrams, resolves their reported shortcomings, and extends their capabilities with causal loop diagramming methodology. The application of the resulting composite causality analysis method to three Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) case studies appears to satisfy the specific requirements of CEA regarding causality. Three 'moments' are envisaged for the use of the proposed method: during the scoping stage, during the assessment process, and during the stakeholder participation process

Investigating causality in the association between 25(OH)D and schizophrenia.

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Taylor, Amy E; Burgess, Stephen; Ware, Jennifer J; Gage, Suzanne H; Richards, J Brent; Davey Smith, George; Munafò, Marcus R

2016-05-24

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether this association is causal or what the direction of causality is. We performed two sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with serum 25(OH)D to investigate the causal effect of 25(OH)D on risk of schizophrenia, and SNPs robustly associated with schizophrenia to investigate the causal effect of schizophrenia on 25(OH)D. We used summary data from genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses of schizophrenia and 25(OH)D to obtain betas and standard errors for the SNP-exposure and SNP-outcome associations. These were combined using inverse variance weighted fixed effects meta-analyses. In 34,241 schizophrenia cases and 45,604 controls, there was no clear evidence for a causal effect of 25(OH)D on schizophrenia risk. The odds ratio for schizophrenia per 10% increase in 25(OH)D conferred by the four 25(OH)D increasing SNPs was 0.992 (95% CI: 0.969 to 1.015). In up to 16,125 individuals with measured serum 25(OH)D, there was no clear evidence that genetic risk for schizophrenia causally lowers serum 25(OH)D. These findings suggest that associations between schizophrenia and serum 25(OH)D may not be causal. Therefore, vitamin D supplementation may not prevent schizophrenia.

Disease causality extraction based on lexical semantics and document-clause frequency from biomedical literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Dong-Gi; Shin, Hyunjung

2017-05-18

Recently, research on human disease network has succeeded and has become an aid in figuring out the relationship between various diseases. In most disease networks, however, the relationship between diseases has been simply represented as an association. This representation results in the difficulty of identifying prior diseases and their influence on posterior diseases. In this paper, we propose a causal disease network that implements disease causality through text mining on biomedical literature. To identify the causality between diseases, the proposed method includes two schemes: the first is the lexicon-based causality term strength, which provides the causal strength on a variety of causality terms based on lexicon analysis. The second is the frequency-based causality strength, which determines the direction and strength of causality based on document and clause frequencies in the literature. We applied the proposed method to 6,617,833 PubMed literature, and chose 195 diseases to construct a causal disease network. From all possible pairs of disease nodes in the network, 1011 causal pairs of 149 diseases were extracted. The resulting network was compared with that of a previous study. In terms of both coverage and quality, the proposed method showed outperforming results; it determined 2.7 times more causalities and showed higher correlation with associated diseases than the existing method. This research has novelty in which the proposed method circumvents the limitations of time and cost in applying all possible causalities in biological experiments and it is a more advanced text mining technique by defining the concepts of causality term strength.

Causal structure of analogue spacetimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

2004-01-01

The so-called 'analogue models of general relativity' provide a number of specific physical systems, well outside the traditional realm of general relativity, that nevertheless are well-described by the differential geometry of curved spacetime. Specifically, the propagation of perturbations in these condensed matter systems is described by 'effective metrics' that carry with them notions of 'causal structure' as determined by an exchange of quasi-particles. These quasi-particle-induced causal structures serve as specific examples of what can be done in the presence of a Lorentzian metric without having recourse to the Einstein equations of general relativity. (After all, the underlying analogue model is governed by its own specific physics, not necessarily by the Einstein equations.) In this paper we take a careful look at what can be said about the causal structure of analogue spacetimes, focusing on those containing quasi-particle horizons, both with a view to seeing what is different from standard general relativity, and what the similarities might be. For definiteness, and because the physics is particularly simple to understand, we will phrase much of the discussion in terms of acoustic disturbances in moving fluids, where the underlying physics is ordinary fluid mechanics, governed by the equations of traditional hydrodynamics, and the relevant quasi-particles are the phonons. It must however be emphasized that this choice of example is only for the sake of pedagogical simplicity and that our considerations apply generically to wide classes of analogue spacetimes

Paracetamol in therapeutic dosages and acute liver injury: causality assessment in a prospective case series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Castellote José

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute liver injury (ALI induced by paracetamol overdose is a well known cause of emergency hospital admission and death. However, there is debate regarding the risk of ALI after therapeutic dosages of the drug. The aim is to describe the characteristics of patients admitted to hospital with jaundice who had previous exposure to therapeutic doses of paracetamol. An assessment of the causality role of paracetamol was performed in each case. Methods Based on the evaluation of prospectively gathered cases of ALI with detailed clinical information, thirty-two cases of ALI in non-alcoholic patients exposed to therapeutic doses of paracetamol were identified. Two authors assessed all drug exposures by using the CIOMS/RUCAM scale. Each case was classified into one of five categories based on the causality score for paracetamol. Results In four cases the role of paracetamol was judged to be unrelated, in two unlikely, and these were excluded from evaluation. In seven of the remaining 26 cases, the RUCAM score associated with paracetamol was higher than that associated with other concomitant medications. The estimated incidence of ALI related to the use of paracetamol in therapeutic dosages was 0.4 per million inhabitants older than 15 years of age and per year (99%CI, 0.2-0.8 and of 10 per million paracetamol users-year (95% CI 4.3-19.4. Conclusions Our results indicate that paracetamol in therapeutic dosages may be considered in the causality assessment in non-alcoholic patients with liver injury, even if the estimated incidence of ALI related to paracetamol appears to be low.

Causal Attributions about Disease-Onset and Relapse in Patients with Systemic Vasculitis

Science.gov (United States)

Grayson, Peter C.; Amudala, Naomi A.; McAlear, Carol A.; Leduc, Renée L.; Shereff, Denise; Richesson, Rachel; Fraenkel, Liana; Merkel, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Objectives Patients vary in their beliefs related to the cause of serious illness. The impact of these beliefs among patients with systemic vasculitis is not known. This study aimed to describe causal attributions about disease-onset and relapse in systemic vasculitis and to examine whether causal beliefs a) differ by type of vasculitis; and b) are associated with negative health outcomes. Methods Patients with vasculitis were recruited to complete an online questionnaire. Categories of causal beliefs were assessed with the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R). Differences in beliefs about disease-onset versus relapse were compared across different forms of vasculitis. Causal beliefs were assessed in association with several health outcomes including fatigue, functional impairments, and personal understanding of the condition. Results 692 patients representing 9 forms of vasculitis completed the questionnaire. The majority (90%) of patients had beliefs about the cause of their illness. Causal attributions were highly variable, but altered immunity and stress were the most commonly agreed upon causal beliefs. Frequencies of causal beliefs were strikingly similar across different forms of vasculitis, with few notable exceptions primarily in Behçet’s disease. Beliefs differed about causes of disease-onset versus relapse. Specific beliefs about disease-onset and relapse were weakly associated with fatigue, functional impairments, and understanding of the condition. Conclusion Patient beliefs related to the cause of systemic vasculitis are highly variable. Patterns of causal beliefs are associated with important negative health outcomes. Clinicians who care for patients with vasculitis should be mindful of these associations and consider asking about patients’ causal beliefs. PMID:24634202

Quantum mechanics, relativity and causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tati, Takao.

1975-07-01

In quantum mechanics, the state is prepared by a measurement on a space-like surface sigma. What is that determines the surface sigma on which the measurement prepares the state It is considered either a mechanism proper to the measuring process (apparatus) or a universal property of space-time. In the former case, problems arise, concerning causality or conservation of probability due to that the velocity of reduction of wave-packet is considered to exceed the light velocity. The theory of finite degree of freedom proposed previously belongs to the latter case. In this theory, the surface sigma is restricted to the hyper-plane perpendicular to a universal time-like vector governing causal relations. We propose an experiment to discriminate between the above-mentioned two cases and to test the existence of the universal time-like vector. (auth.)

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN GEORGIA, AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huseyin Kalyoncu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This research aims to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia during the period of 1995–2009. The Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality tests are used in order to analyse the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. It is crucial to see the directions of causality between two variables for the policy makers. For Georgia and Azerbaijan it is found that these two variables are not cointegrated. In case of Armenia these two variables are cointegrated. Accordingly, causality analysis is conducted for Armenia. The research outcomes reveal that there is unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption for Armenia.

Thinking Fast and Slow about Causality: Response to Palinkas

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Jeanne C.

2014-01-01

Larry Palinkas advances the developing science of social work by providing an explanation of how social science research methods, both qualitative and quantitative, can improve our capacity to draw casual inferences. Understanding causal relations and making causal inferences--with the promise of being able to predict and control outcomes--is…

Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Steven M; Heiser, Laura M; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K; Carlin, Daniel E; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O; Wong, Chris K; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W; Long, Byron L; Noren, David P; Bisberg, Alexander J; Mills, Gordon B; Gray, Joe W; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A; Fertig, Elana J; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M; Spellman, Paul T; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

2016-04-01

It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense.

Questions on causality and responsibility arising from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in Norway

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Hofmann Bjørn

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract In 2002, Norway experienced a large outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in hospitals with 231 confirmed cases. This fuelled intense public and professional debates on what were the causes and who were responsible. In epidemiology, other sciences, in philosophy and in law there is a long tradition of discussing the concept of causality. We use this outbreak as a case; apply various theories of causality from different disciplines to discuss the roles and responsibilities of some of the parties involved. Mackie's concept of INUS conditions, Hill's nine viewpoints to study association for claiming causation, deterministic and probabilistic ways of reasoning, all shed light on the issues of causality in this outbreak. Moreover, applying legal theories of causation (counterfactual reasoning and the "but-for" test and the NESS test proved especially useful, but the case also illustrated the weaknesses of the various theories of causation. We conclude that many factors contributed to causing the outbreak, but that contamination of a medical device in the production facility was the major necessary condition. The reuse of the medical device in hospitals contributed primarily to the size of the outbreak. The unintended error by its producer – and to a minor extent by the hospital practice – was mainly due to non-application of relevant knowledge and skills, and appears to constitute professional negligence. Due to criminal procedure laws and other factors outside the discourse of causality, no one was criminally charged for the outbreak which caused much suffering and shortening the life of at least 34 people.

Inferring causality from noisy time series data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

2016-01-01

Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

A new spin on causality constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartman, Thomas; Jain, Sachin; Kundu, Sandipan [Department of Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York (United States)

2016-10-26

Causality in a shockwave state is related to the analytic properties of a four-point correlation function. Extending recent results for scalar probes, we show that this constrains the couplings of the stress tensor to light spinning operators in conformal field theory, and interpret these constraints in terms of the interaction with null energy. For spin-1 and spin-2 conserved currents in four dimensions, the resulting inequalities are a subset of the Hofman-Maldacena conditions for positive energy deposition. It is well known that energy conditions in holographic theories are related to causality on the gravity side; our results make a connection on the CFT side, and extend it to non-holographic theories.

The Hankel transform of causal distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel A. Aguirre T.

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In this note we evaluate the unidimensional distributional Hankel transform of \\dfrac{x^{\\alpha-1}_{+}}{\\Gamma^{\\alpha}},\\dfrac{x^{\\alpha-1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{\\alpha}},dfrac{|x|^{\\alpha-1}}{\\Gamma^{\\frac{\\alpha}{2}}},dfrac{|x|^{\\alpha-1}sgn(x}{\\Gamma^{\\frac{\\alpha +1}{2}}} and (x± i0^{\\alpha-1} and then we extend the formulae to certain kinds of n-dimensional distributions calles "causal" and "anti-causal" distributions. We evaluate the distributional Handel transform of \\dfrac{(m^2+P^{\\alpha -1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{(\\alpha} }, \\dfrac{|m^2+P|^{\\alpha -1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{(\\frac{\\alpha}{2}}}, \\dfrac{|m^2+P|^{\\alpha -1}sgn(m^2+P}{\\Gamma (\\frac{\\alpha +1}{2 }} and (m^2+P±i0^{\\alpha-1}

Boundary causality versus hyperbolicity for spherical black holes in Gauss–Bonnet gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrade, Tomás; Cáceres, Elena; Keeler, Cynthia

2017-01-01

We explore the constraints boundary causality places on the allowable Gauss–Bonnet gravitational couplings in asymptotically AdS spaces, specifically considering spherical black hole solutions. We additionally consider the hyperbolicity properties of these solutions, positing that hyperbolicity-violating solutions are sick solutions whose causality properties provide no information about the theory they reside in. For both signs of the Gauss–Bonnet coupling, spherical black holes violate boundary causality at smaller absolute values of the coupling than planar black holes do. For negative coupling, as we tune the Gauss–Bonnet coupling away from zero, both spherical and planar black holes violate hyperbolicity before they violate boundary causality. For positive coupling, the only hyperbolicity-respecting spherical black holes which violate boundary causality do not do so appreciably far from the planar bound. Consequently, eliminating hyperbolicity-violating solutions means the bound on Gauss–Bonnet couplings from the boundary causality of spherical black holes is no tighter than that from planar black holes. (paper)

Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

2011-01-01

Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

Confounding effects of phase delays on causality estimation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasily A Vakorin

Full Text Available Linear and non-linear techniques for inferring causal relations between the brain signals representing the underlying neuronal systems have become a powerful tool to extract the connectivity patterns in the brain. Typically these tools employ the idea of Granger causality, which is ultimately based on the temporal precedence between the signals. At the same time, phase synchronization between coupled neural ensembles is considered a mechanism implemented in the brain to integrate relevant neuronal ensembles to perform a cognitive or perceptual task. Phase synchronization can be studied by analyzing the effects of phase-locking between the brain signals. However, we should expect that there is no one-to-one mapping between the observed phase lag and the time precedence as specified by physically interacting systems. Specifically, phase lag observed between two signals may interfere with inferring causal relations. This could be of critical importance for the coupled non-linear oscillating systems, with possible time delays in coupling, when classical linear cross-spectrum strategies for solving phase ambiguity are not efficient. To demonstrate this, we used a prototypical model of coupled non-linear systems, and compared three typical pipelines of inferring Granger causality, as established in the literature. Specifically, we compared the performance of the spectral and information-theoretic Granger pipelines as well as standard Granger causality in their relations to the observed phase differences for frequencies at which the signals become synchronized to each other. We found that an information-theoretic approach, which takes into account different time lags between the past of one signal and the future of another signal, was the most robust to phase effects.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maxim, L [Institut des Sciences de la Communication, CNRS UPS 3088, 27 Rue Damesme, 75013 Paris (France); Van der Sluijs, J P, E-mail: laura.maxim@iscc.cnrs.f, E-mail: J.P.vanderSluijs@uu.n [Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Department of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands)

2010-01-15

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho compared with other supposed causal factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxim, L; Van der Sluijs, J P

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salazar-Ferrer, P.

1995-06-01

In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

Detecting switching and intermittent causalities in time series

Science.gov (United States)

Zanin, Massimiliano; Papo, David

2017-04-01

During the last decade, complex network representations have emerged as a powerful instrument for describing the cross-talk between different brain regions both at rest and as subjects are carrying out cognitive tasks, in healthy brains and neurological pathologies. The transient nature of such cross-talk has nevertheless by and large been neglected, mainly due to the inherent limitations of some metrics, e.g., causality ones, which require a long time series in order to yield statistically significant results. Here, we present a methodology to account for intermittent causal coupling in neural activity, based on the identification of non-overlapping windows within the original time series in which the causality is strongest. The result is a less coarse-grained assessment of the time-varying properties of brain interactions, which can be used to create a high temporal resolution time-varying network. We apply the proposed methodology to the analysis of the brain activity of control subjects and alcoholic patients performing an image recognition task. Our results show that short-lived, intermittent, local-scale causality is better at discriminating both groups than global network metrics. These results highlight the importance of the transient nature of brain activity, at least under some pathological conditions.

The Causal Relationship between Health and Education Expenditures in Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chor Foon TANG

2011-08-01

Full Text Available A major macroeconomic policy in generating economic growth is to encourage investments on human capital such as health and education. This is because both health and education make significant contribution to increasing productivity of the labour force which ultimately exerts a positive effect on raising output levels. A question that arises is whether investments on health and education have a causal relationship and if so, what is the directional causality? The objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between health and education expenditures in Malaysia. This study covered annual data from 1970 to 2007. Using Granger causality as well as Toda and Yamamoto MWALD causality approaches, this study suggests that education Granger-causes health expenditure in both the short run and long run. The findings of this study implied that the Malaysian society places preference on education expenditure rather than health. This preference is not unexpected as generally, an educated and knowledgeable society precedes a healthy one. Before a society has attained a relatively higher level of education, it is less aware of the importance of health. Thus, expenditure on education should lead expenditure on health.

Darwin revisited: The vagus nerve is a causal element in controlling recognition of other's emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Colzato, Lorenza S; Sellaro, Roberta; Beste, Christian

2017-07-01

Charles Darwin proposed that via the vagus nerve, the tenth cranial nerve, emotional facial expressions are evolved, adaptive and serve a crucial communicative function. In line with this idea, the later-developed polyvagal theory assumes that the vagus nerve is the key phylogenetic substrate that regulates emotional and social behavior. The polyvagal theory assumes that optimal social interaction, which includes the recognition of emotion in faces, is modulated by the vagus nerve. So far, in humans, it has not yet been demonstrated that the vagus plays a causal role in emotion recognition. To investigate this we employed transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS), a novel non-invasive brain stimulation technique that modulates brain activity via bottom-up mechanisms. A sham/placebo-controlled, randomized cross-over within-subjects design was used to infer a causal relation between the stimulated vagus nerve and the related ability to recognize emotions as indexed by the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test in 38 healthy young volunteers. Active tVNS, compared to sham stimulation, enhanced emotion recognition for easy items, suggesting that it promoted the ability to decode salient social cues. Our results confirm that the vagus nerve is causally involved in emotion recognition, supporting Darwin's argumentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measures of Coupling between Neural Populations Based on Granger Causality Principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaminski, Maciej; Brzezicka, Aneta; Kaminski, Jan; Blinowska, Katarzyna J

2016-01-01

This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality) principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a "weak node." Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF) supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

AN INVESTIGATION OF CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY BETWEEN TRADE OPENNESS AND GOVERNMENT SIZE IN TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ismail Aydogus

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Validity of globalization brings out the question of whether greater openness is a booster reason to have a bigger government. This issue has been started to be discussed in relevant literature since the late 1970s. In this context, the purpose of this study is to examine the linkage between trade openness and the size of the government in Turkey over the period 1974-2011. Using residual based co-integration approach, we fail to find an evidence of a long run relationship. In addition, we do not provide causal support of compensation hypothesis in Turkish economy.

Ultra-Wideband Electromagnetic Pulse Propagation through Causal Media

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-04

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0112 Ultra-Wideband Electromagnetic Pulse Propagation through Causal Media Natalie Cartwright RESEARCH FOUNDATION OF STATE... Electromagnetic Pulse Propagation through Causal Media 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT NUMBER FA9550-13-1-0013 5c.  PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61102F 6...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT When an electromagnetic pulse travels through a dispersive material each frequency of the transmitted pulse changes in both

Curvature constraints from the causal entropic principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozek, Brandon; Albrecht, Andreas; Phillips, Daniel

2009-01-01

Current cosmological observations indicate a preference for a cosmological constant that is drastically smaller than what can be explained by conventional particle physics. The causal entropic principle (Bousso et al.) provides an alternative approach to anthropic attempts to predict our observed value of the cosmological constant by calculating the entropy created within a causal diamond. We have extended this work to use the causal entropic principle to predict the preferred curvature within the 'multiverse'. We have found that values larger than ρ k =40ρ m are disfavored by more than 99.99% peak value at ρ Λ =7.9x10 -123 and ρ k =4.3ρ m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending on the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work.

The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

2014-01-01

Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

K-causal structure of space-time in general relativity

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

1Department of Mathematics, St. Francis De Sales College, Nagpur 440 006, India. 2Department of Mathematics ... From the physical point of view, concept of causalities embodies the concept of time evolution, finite .... A K-causal open set O ⊆ V is globally hyperbolic iff for every pair of points p, q ∈ O, the interval K(p, ...

A note on mental content in the Causal Theory

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A note on mental content in the Causal Theory. JP Smit. Department of Philosophy, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, 7600 Matieland, South Africa. E-mail: jps@sun.ac.za. Kripke's causal theory requires that downstream users of a name must have the intention to use the name in the same way that upstream users ...

Sartre's Contingency of Being and Asouzu's Principle of Causality ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The position of this work is that all contingent beings have a causal agent. This position is taken as a result of trying to delve into the issue of contingency and causality of being which has been discussed by many philosophers of diverse epochs of philosophy. This work tries to participate in the debate of whether contingent ...

Causal Learning from Probabilistic Events in 24-Month-Olds: An Action Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Waismeyer, Anna; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Gopnik, Alison

2015-01-01

How do young children learn about causal structure in an uncertain and variable world? We tested whether they can use observed probabilistic information to solve causal learning problems. In two experiments, 24-month-olds observed an adult produce a probabilistic pattern of causal evidence. The toddlers then were given an opportunity to design…

Emergent Geometry from Entropy and Causality

Science.gov (United States)

Engelhardt, Netta

In this thesis, we investigate the connections between the geometry of spacetime and aspects of quantum field theory such as entanglement entropy and causality. This work is motivated by the idea that spacetime geometry is an emergent phenomenon in quantum gravity, and that the physics responsible for this emergence is fundamental to quantum field theory. Part I of this thesis is focused on the interplay between spacetime and entropy, with a special emphasis on entropy due to entanglement. In general spacetimes, there exist locally-defined surfaces sensitive to the geometry that may act as local black hole boundaries or cosmological horizons; these surfaces, known as holographic screens, are argued to have a connection with the second law of thermodynamics. Holographic screens obey an area law, suggestive of an association with entropy; they are also distinguished surfaces from the perspective of the covariant entropy bound, a bound on the total entropy of a slice of the spacetime. This construction is shown to be quite general, and is formulated in both classical and perturbatively quantum theories of gravity. The remainder of Part I uses the Anti-de Sitter/ Conformal Field Theory (AdS/CFT) correspondence to both expand and constrain the connection between entanglement entropy and geometry. The AdS/CFT correspondence posits an equivalence between string theory in the "bulk" with AdS boundary conditions and certain quantum field theories. In the limit where the string theory is simply classical General Relativity, the Ryu-Takayanagi and more generally, the Hubeny-Rangamani-Takayanagi (HRT) formulae provide a way of relating the geometry of surfaces to entanglement entropy. A first-order bulk quantum correction to HRT was derived by Faulkner, Lewkowycz and Maldacena. This formula is generalized to include perturbative quantum corrections in the bulk at any (finite) order. Hurdles to spacetime emergence from entanglement entropy as described by HRT and its quantum

Maximally causal quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, S.M.

1998-01-01

We present a new causal quantum mechanics in one and two dimensions developed recently at TIFR by this author and V. Singh. In this theory both position and momentum for a system point have Hamiltonian evolution in such a way that the ensemble of system points leads to position and momentum probability densities agreeing exactly with ordinary quantum mechanics. (author)

Stock market integration and the speed of information transmission: the role of data frequency in cointegration and Granger causality tests

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Černý, Alexandr; Koblas, M.

2004-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 1 (2004), s. 110-120 ISSN 1544-8037 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : stock market integration * speed of information transmission * data frequency in cointegration and Granger causality tests Subject RIV: AH - Economics

CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Maher, M Cyrus; Hernandez, Ryan D

2015-01-01

Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a

CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Cyrus Maher

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data.Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM, a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations. Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens’ Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement

The role of causal reasoning in understanding Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and the suppression effect: covariate selection in the analysis of observational studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arah Onyebuchi A

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Tu et al present an analysis of the equivalence of three paradoxes, namely, Simpson's, Lord's, and the suppression phenomena. They conclude that all three simply reiterate the occurrence of a change in the association of any two variables when a third variable is statistically controlled for. This is not surprising because reversal or change in magnitude is common in conditional analysis. At the heart of the phenomenon of change in magnitude, with or without reversal of effect estimate, is the question of which to use: the unadjusted (combined table or adjusted (sub-table estimate. Hence, Simpson's paradox and related phenomena are a problem of covariate selection and adjustment (when to adjust or not in the causal analysis of non-experimental data. It cannot be overemphasized that although these paradoxes reveal the perils of using statistical criteria to guide causal analysis, they hold neither the explanations of the phenomenon they depict nor the pointers on how to avoid them. The explanations and solutions lie in causal reasoning which relies on background knowledge, not statistical criteria.

Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

OpenAIRE

Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

2011-01-01

In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Caus...

The causal boundary of wave-type spacetimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores, J.L.; Sanchez, M.

2008-01-01

A complete and systematic approach to compute the causal boundary of wave-type spacetimes is carried out. The case of a 1-dimensional boundary is specially analyzed and its critical appearance in pp-wave type spacetimes is emphasized. In particular, the corresponding results obtained in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence for holography on the boundary, are reinterpreted and very widely generalized. Technically, a recent new definition of causal boundary is used and stressed. Moreover, a set of mathematical tools is introduced (analytical functional approach, Sturm-Liouville theory, Fermat-type arrival time, Busemann-type functions)

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

Causality Illusion and Overconfidence in Predicting (QuasiStochastic Financial Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Houdek

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We argue that individuals systematically interpret sequences of events in a  causal manner. The aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasirandom events casually; they make incorrect predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.

Capturing connectivity and causality in complex industrial processes

CERN Document Server

Yang, Fan; Shah, Sirish L; Chen, Tongwen

2014-01-01

This brief reviews concepts of inter-relationship in modern industrial processes, biological and social systems. Specifically ideas of connectivity and causality within and between elements of a complex system are treated; these ideas are of great importance in analysing and influencing mechanisms, structural properties and their dynamic behaviour, especially for fault diagnosis and hazard analysis. Fault detection and isolation for industrial processes being concerned with root causes and fault propagation, the brief shows that, process connectivity and causality information can be captured in two ways: ·      from process knowledge: structural modeling based on first-principles structural models can be merged with adjacency/reachability matrices or topology models obtained from process flow-sheets described in standard formats; and ·      from process data: cross-correlation analysis, Granger causality and its extensions, frequency domain methods, information-theoretical methods, and Bayesian ne...

Coal consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anoruo Emmanuel

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for a panel of 15 African countries using bootstrap panel Granger causality test. Specifically, this paper uses the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the order of integration for the coal consumption and economic growth series. A bootstrap panel Granger causality test is employed to determine the direction of causality between coal consumption and economic growth. The results provide evidence of unidirectional causality from economic growth to coal consumption. This finding implies that coal conservation measures may be implemented with little or no adverse impact on economic growth for the sample countries as a group.

CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A GRAPHICAL HIERARCHY OF INTERVENTIONS.

Science.gov (United States)

Shpitser, Ilya; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen

2016-12-01

Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated effects may not always be identified even in data where treatment assignment is known and under investigator control, or may be identified under one causal model but not another. Increasingly complex effects of interest, coupled with a diversity of causal models in use resulted in a fragmented view of identification. This fragmentation makes it unnecessarily difficult to determine if a given parameter is identified (and in what model), and what assumptions must hold for this to be the case. This, in turn, complicates the development of estimation theory and sensitivity analysis procedures. In this paper, we give a unifying view of a large class of causal effects of interest, including novel effects not previously considered, in terms of a hierarchy of interventions, and show that identification theory for this large class reduces to an identification theory of random variables under interventions from this hierarchy. Moreover, we show that one type of intervention in the hierarchy is naturally associated with queries identified under the Finest Fully Randomized Causally Interpretable Structure Tree Graph (FFRCISTG) model of Robins (via the extended g-formula), and another is naturally associated with queries identified under the Non-Parametric Structural Equation Model with Independent Errors (NPSEM-IE) of Pearl, via a more general functional we call the edge g-formula. Our results motivate the study of estimation theory for the edge g-formula, since we show it arises both in mediation analysis, and in settings where treatment assignment has unobserved causes, such as models associated with Pearl's front-door criterion.

A Hierarchical Causal Taxonomy of Psychopathology across the Life Span

Science.gov (United States)

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Krueger, Robert F.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zald, David H.

2016-01-01

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the three levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. PMID:28004947

An Algorithmic Information Calculus for Causal Discovery and Reprogramming Systems

KAUST Repository

Zenil, Hector

2017-09-08

We introduce a conceptual framework and an interventional calculus to steer and manipulate systems based on their intrinsic algorithmic probability using the universal principles of the theory of computability and algorithmic information. By applying sequences of controlled interventions to systems and networks, we estimate how changes in their algorithmic information content are reflected in positive/negative shifts towards and away from randomness. The strong connection between approximations to algorithmic complexity (the size of the shortest generating mechanism) and causality induces a sequence of perturbations ranking the network elements by the steering capabilities that each of them is capable of. This new dimension unmasks a separation between causal and non-causal components providing a suite of powerful parameter-free algorithms of wide applicability ranging from optimal dimension reduction, maximal randomness analysis and system control. We introduce methods for reprogramming systems that do not require the full knowledge or access to the system\\'s actual kinetic equations or any probability distributions. A causal interventional analysis of synthetic and regulatory biological networks reveals how the algorithmic reprogramming qualitatively reshapes the system\\'s dynamic landscape. For example, during cellular differentiation we find a decrease in the number of elements corresponding to a transition away from randomness and a combination of the system\\'s intrinsic properties and its intrinsic capabilities to be algorithmically reprogrammed can reconstruct an epigenetic landscape. The interventional calculus is broadly applicable to predictive causal inference of systems such as networks and of relevance to a variety of machine and causal learning techniques driving model-based approaches to better understanding and manipulate complex systems.

Actors, observers, and causal attributions of homelessness: Differences in attribution for the causes of homelessness among domiciled and homeless people in Madrid (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Vázquez, José Juan; Panadero, Sonia; Zúñiga, Claudia

2017-01-01

The study analyzes the differences in causal attributions of homelessness and attributions of responsibility among the members of 3 groups: homeless group, consisting of a representative sample of homeless people in Madrid, Spain (n = 188); domiciled service-users group, consisting of people at risk of homelessness (n = 164); and domiciled nonservice-users group, consisting of people at no imminent risk of homelessness (n = 180). The domiciled service-users group and domiciled nonservice-users group were matched to the homeless group or sex, age, and nationality. The article also analyzes homeless people's causal attributions as regards their own situation. The results show that compared with the domiciled nonservice-users group, a higher percentage of members of the homeless group and domiciled service-users group attributed homelessness to individualistic causes and they blamed homeless people for their situation to a greater extent. The results also show that there was no "actor-observer bias" in causal attributions for homelessness in Madrid. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A framework for estimating causal effects in latent class analysis: is there a causal link between early sex and subsequent profiles of delinquency?

Science.gov (United States)

Butera, Nicole M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Coffman, Donna L

2014-06-01

Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p = 0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p = 0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work.

The causal structure of spacetime is a parameterized Randers geometry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skakala, Jozef; Visser, Matt, E-mail: jozef.skakala@msor.vuw.ac.nz, E-mail: matt.visser@msor.vuw.ac.nz [School of Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington (New Zealand)

2011-03-21

There is a well-established isomorphism between stationary four-dimensional spacetimes and three-dimensional purely spatial Randers geometries-these Randers geometries being a particular case of the more general class of three-dimensional Finsler geometries. We point out that in stably causal spacetimes, by using the (time-dependent) ADM decomposition, this result can be extended to general non-stationary spacetimes-the causal structure (conformal structure) of the full spacetime is completely encoded in a parameterized (t-dependent) class of Randers spaces, which can then be used to define a Fermat principle, and also to reconstruct the null cones and causal structure.

The causal structure of spacetime is a parameterized Randers geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skakala, Jozef; Visser, Matt

2011-01-01

There is a well-established isomorphism between stationary four-dimensional spacetimes and three-dimensional purely spatial Randers geometries-these Randers geometries being a particular case of the more general class of three-dimensional Finsler geometries. We point out that in stably causal spacetimes, by using the (time-dependent) ADM decomposition, this result can be extended to general non-stationary spacetimes-the causal structure (conformal structure) of the full spacetime is completely encoded in a parameterized (t-dependent) class of Randers spaces, which can then be used to define a Fermat principle, and also to reconstruct the null cones and causal structure.

Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Iriani, Mahmoud A.

2006-01-01

This work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption in the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy-GDP causality in the GCC. Empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption. Evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of GDP growth in the GCC countries. Such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of GCC economies

Causal gene identification using combinatorial V-structure search.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Ruichu; Zhang, Zhenjie; Hao, Zhifeng

2013-07-01

With the advances of biomedical techniques in the last decade, the costs of human genomic sequencing and genomic activity monitoring are coming down rapidly. To support the huge genome-based business in the near future, researchers are eager to find killer applications based on human genome information. Causal gene identification is one of the most promising applications, which may help the potential patients to estimate the risk of certain genetic diseases and locate the target gene for further genetic therapy. Unfortunately, existing pattern recognition techniques, such as Bayesian networks, cannot be directly applied to find the accurate causal relationship between genes and diseases. This is mainly due to the insufficient number of samples and the extremely high dimensionality of the gene space. In this paper, we present the first practical solution to causal gene identification, utilizing a new combinatorial formulation over V-Structures commonly used in conventional Bayesian networks, by exploring the combinations of significant V-Structures. We prove the NP-hardness of the combinatorial search problem under a general settings on the significance measure on the V-Structures, and present a greedy algorithm to find sub-optimal results. Extensive experiments show that our proposal is both scalable and effective, particularly with interesting findings on the causal genes over real human genome data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

Science.gov (United States)

Walters, Glenn D

2018-01-01

This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Measures of coupling between neural populations based on Granger causality principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maciej Kaminski

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a weak node. Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John F Magnotti

2013-11-01

Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

Operator ordering and causality

OpenAIRE

Plimak, L. I.; Stenholm, S. T.

2011-01-01

It is shown that causality violations [M. de Haan, Physica 132A, 375, 397 (1985)], emerging when the conventional definition of the time-normal operator ordering [P.L.Kelley and W.H.Kleiner, Phys.Rev. 136, A316 (1964)] is taken outside the rotating wave approximation, disappear when the amended definition [L.P. and S.S., Annals of Physics, 323, 1989 (2008)] of this ordering is used.

Space, time and causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucas, J.R.

1984-01-01

Originating from lectures given to first year undergraduates reading physics and philosophy or mathematics and philosophy, formal logic is applied to issues and the elucidation of problems in space, time and causality. No special knowledge of relativity theory or quantum mechanics is needed. The text is interspersed with exercises and each chapter is preceded by a suggested 'preliminary reading' and followed by 'further reading' references. (U.K.)

Causality and superluminal behavior in classical field theories: Applications to k-essence theories and modified-Newtonian-dynamics-like theories of gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruneton, Jean-Philippe

2007-01-01

Field theories with Lorentz (or diffeomorphism invariant) action can exhibit superluminal behavior through the breaking of local Lorentz invariance. Quantum induced superluminal velocities are well-known examples of this effect. The issue of the causal behavior of such propagation is somewhat controversial in the literature and we intend to clarify it. We provide a careful analysis of the meaning of causality in classical relativistic field theories and stress the role played by the Cauchy problem and the notion of chronology. We show that, in general, superluminal behavior threatens causality only if one assumes that a prior chronology in spacetime exists. In the case where superluminal propagation occurs, however, there are at least two nonconformally related metrics in spacetime and thus two available notions of chronology. These two chronologies are on equal footing, and it would thus be misleading to choose ab initio one of them to define causality. Rather, we provide a formulation of causality in which no prior chronology is assumed. We argue that this is the only way to deal with the issue of causality in the case where some degrees of freedom propagate faster than others. In that framework, then, it is shown that superluminal propagation is not necessarily noncausal, the final answer depending on the existence of an initial data formulation. This also depends on global properties of spacetime that we discuss in detail. As an illustration of these conceptual issues, we consider two field theories, namely, k-essence scalar fields and bimetric theories of gravity, and we derive the conditions imposed by causality. We discuss various applications such as the dark energy problem, modified-Newtonian-dynamics-like theories of gravity, and varying speed of light theories

The relative performance of bivariate causality tests in small samples

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bult, J..R.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

1997-01-01

Causality tests have been applied to establish directional effects and to reduce the set of potential predictors, For the latter type of application only bivariate tests can be used, In this study we compare bivariate causality tests. Although the problem addressed is general and could benefit

Situation models and memory: the effects of temporal and causal information on recall sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Brownstein, Aaron L; Read, Stephen J

2007-10-01

Participants watched an episode of the television show Cheers on video and then reported free recall. Recall sequence followed the sequence of events in the story; if one concept was observed immediately after another, it was recalled immediately after it. We also made a causal network of the show's story and found that recall sequence followed causal links; effects were recalled immediately after their causes. Recall sequence was more likely to follow causal links than temporal sequence, and most likely to follow causal links that were temporally sequential. Results were similar at 10-minute and 1-week delayed recall. This is the most direct and detailed evidence reported on sequential effects in recall. The causal network also predicted probability of recall; concepts with more links and concepts on the main causal chain were most likely to be recalled. This extends the causal network model to more complex materials than previous research.

Linear and nonlinear causality between sectoral electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Cheng-Lang; Lin, Hung-Pin; Chang, Chih-Heng

2010-01-01

This study investigates the linear and nonlinear causality between the total electricity consumption (TEC) and real gross domestic production (RGDP). Unlike previous literature, we solve the undetermined relation between RGDP and electricity consumption by classifying TEC into industrial sector consumption (ISC) and residential sector consumption (RSC) as well as investigating how TEC, ISC, and RSC influence Taiwan's RGDP. By using the Granger's linear causality test, it is shown that (i) there is a bidirectional causality among TEC, ISC, and RGDP, but a neutrality between RSC and RGDP with regard to the linear causality and (ii) there is still a bidirectional causality between TEC and RGDP, but a unidirectional causality between RSC and RGDP with regard to the nonlinear causality. On the basis of (i) and (ii), we suggest that the electricity policy formulators loosen the restriction on ISC and limit RSC in order to achieve the goal of economic growth.

Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsani, Stela Z.

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for Greece for the period 1960-2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). At aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real GDP but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction. The importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in Greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements.

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G

2014-01-01

Knowledge regarding causal relationships among traits is important to understand complex biological systems. Structural equation models (SEM) can be used to quantify the causal relations between traits, which allow prediction of outcomes to interventions applied to such a network. Such models...... are fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select...

Causal Reasoning with Mental Models

Science.gov (United States)

2014-08-08

The initial rubric is equivalent to an exclusive disjunction between the two causal assertions. It 488 yields the following two mental models: 489...are 575 important, whereas the functions of artifacts are important (Ahn, 1998). A genetic code is 576 accordingly more critical to being a goat than

GREATER OMENTUM: MORPHOFUNCTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE IN PEDIATRICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Nekrutov

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The review analyzes the structure organization and pathophysiological age specificities of the greater omentum, which determine its uniqueness and functional diversity in a child's organism. the article discusses protective functions of the organ, its role in the development of post operative complications of children, and the usage in children's reconstructive plastic surgery.Key words: greater omentum, omentitis, of post operative complications, children.

Detecting causal drivers and empirical prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Di Capua, G.; Vellore, R.; Raghavan, K.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is crucial for the economy, society and natural ecosystems on the Indian peninsula. Predict the total seasonal rainfall at several months lead time would help to plan effective water management strategies, improve flood or drought protection programs and prevent humanitarian crisis. However, the complexity and strong internal variability of the ISM circulation system make skillful seasonal forecasting challenging. Moreover, to adequately identify the low-frequency, and far-away processes which influence ISM behavior novel tools are needed. We applied a Response-Guided Causal Precursor Detection (RGCPD) scheme, which is a novel empirical prediction method which unites a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm (CEN). These tool allow us to assess causal pathways between different components of the ISM circulation system and with far-away regions in the tropics, mid-latitudes or Arctic. The scheme has successfully been used to identify causal precursors of the Stratospheric polar vortex enabling skillful predictions at (sub) seasonal timescales (Kretschmer et al. 2016, J.Clim., Kretschmer et al. 2017, GRL). We analyze observed ISM monthly rainfall over the monsoon trough region. Applying causal discovery techniques, we identify several causal precursor communities in the fields of 2m-temperature, sea level pressure and snow depth over Eurasia. Specifically, our results suggest that surface temperature conditions in both tropical and Arctic regions contribute to ISM variability. A linear regression prediction model based on the identified set of communities has good hindcasting skills with 4-5 months lead times. Further we separate El Nino, La Nina and ENSO-neutral years from each other and find that the causal precursors are different dependent on ENSO state. The ENSO-state dependent causal precursors give even higher skill, especially for La Nina years when the ISM is relatively strong. These

No simple dual to the causal holographic information?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engelhardt, Netta [Department of Physics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States); Wall, Aron C. [Institute for Advanced Study,Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ, 08540 (United States)

2017-04-21

In AdS/CFT, the fine grained entropy of a boundary region is dual to the area of an extremal surface X in the bulk. It has been proposed that the area of a certain ‘causal surface’ C — i.e. the ‘causal holographic information’ (CHI) — corresponds to some coarse-grained entropy in the boundary theory. We construct two kinds of counterexamples that rule out various possible duals, using (1) vacuum rigidity and (2) thermal quenches. This includes the ‘one-point entropy’ proposed by Kelly and Wall, and a large class of related procedures. Also, any coarse-graining that fixes the geometry of the bulk ‘causal wedge’ bounded by C, fails to reproduce CHI. This is in sharp contrast to the holographic entanglement entropy, where the area of the extremal surface X measures the same information that is found in the ‘entanglement wedge’ bounded by X.

CEBPA exerts a specific and biologically important proapoptotic role in pancreatic β cells through its downstream network targets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbagallo, Davide; Condorelli, Angelo Giuseppe; Piro, Salvatore

2014-01-01

Transcription factor CEBPA has been widely studied for its involvement in hematopoietic cell differentiation and causal role in hematological malignancies. We demonstrate here that it also performs a causal role in cytokine-induced apoptosis of pancreas β cells. Treatment of two mouse pancreatic ...

Granger causal connectivity dissociates navigation networks that subserve allocentric and egocentric path integration.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Chiu, Te-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Kai; Chuang, Chun-Hsiang; Gramann, Klaus

2018-01-15

Studies on spatial navigation demonstrate a significant role of the retrosplenial complex (RSC) in the transformation of egocentric and allocentric information into complementary spatial reference frames (SRFs). The tight anatomical connections of the RSC with a wide range of other cortical regions processing spatial information support its vital role within the human navigation network. To better understand how different areas of the navigational network interact, we investigated the dynamic causal interactions of brain regions involved in solving a virtual navigation task. EEG signals were decomposed by independent component analysis (ICA) and subsequently examined for information flow between clusters of independent components (ICs) using direct short-time directed transfer function (sdDTF). The results revealed information flow between the anterior cingulate cortex and the left prefrontal cortex in the theta (4-7 Hz) frequency band and between the prefrontal, motor, parietal, and occipital cortices as well as the RSC in the alpha (8-13 Hz) frequency band. When participants prefered to use distinct reference frames (egocentric vs. allocentric) during navigation was considered, a dominant occipito-parieto-RSC network was identified in allocentric navigators. These results are in line with the assumption that the RSC, parietal, and occipital cortices are involved in transforming egocentric visual-spatial information into an allocentric reference frame. Moreover, the RSC demonstrated the strongest causal flow during changes in orientation, suggesting that this structure directly provides information on heading changes in humans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classical Causal Models for Bell and Kochen-Specker Inequality Violations Require Fine-Tuning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric G. Cavalcanti

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Nonlocality and contextuality are at the root of conceptual puzzles in quantum mechanics, and they are key resources for quantum advantage in information-processing tasks. Bell nonlocality is best understood as the incompatibility between quantum correlations and the classical theory of causality, applied to relativistic causal structure. Contextuality, on the other hand, is on a more controversial foundation. In this work, I provide a common conceptual ground between nonlocality and contextuality as violations of classical causality. First, I show that Bell inequalities can be derived solely from the assumptions of no signaling and no fine-tuning of the causal model. This removes two extra assumptions from a recent result from Wood and Spekkens and, remarkably, does not require any assumption related to independence of measurement settings—unlike all other derivations of Bell inequalities. I then introduce a formalism to represent contextuality scenarios within causal models and show that all classical causal models for violations of a Kochen-Specker inequality require fine-tuning. Thus, the quantum violation of classical causality goes beyond the case of spacelike-separated systems and already manifests in scenarios involving single systems.

Causal Agency Theory: Reconceptualizing a Functional Model of Self-Determination

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Shogren, Karrie A.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Palmer, Susan B.; Forber-Pratt, Anjali J.; Little, Todd J.; Lopez, Shane

2015-01-01

This paper introduces Causal Agency Theory, an extension of the functional model of self-determination. Causal Agency Theory addresses the need for interventions and assessments pertaining to selfdetermination for all students and incorporates the significant advances in understanding of disability and in the field of positive psychology since the…

Causal fermion systems: A quantum space-time emerging from an action principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Finster, Felix [Mathematics Department, University of Regensburg (Germany)

2013-07-01

Causal fermion systems provide a general framework for the formulation of relativistic quantum theory. A particular feature is that space-time is a secondary object which emerges by minimizing an action. The aim of the talk is to give a simple introduction, with an emphasis on conceptual issues. We begin with Dirac spinors in Minkowski space and explain how to formulate the system as a causal fermion system. As an example in curved space-time, we then consider spinors on a globally hyperbolic space-time. An example on a space-time lattice illustrates that causal fermion systems also allow for the description of discrete space-times. These examples lead us to the general definition of causal fermion systems. The causal action principle is introduced. We outline how for a given minimizer, one has notions of causality, connection and curvature, which generalize the classical notions and give rise to a proposal for a ''quantum geometry''. In the last part of the talk, we outline how quantum field theory can be described in this framework and discuss the relation to other approaches.

Objective sleep disturbances are associated with greater waking resting-state connectivity between the retrosplenial cortex/ hippocampus and various nodes of the default mode network.

Science.gov (United States)

Regen, Wolfram; Kyle, Simon D; Nissen, Christoph; Feige, Bernd; Baglioni, Chiara; Hennig, Jürgen; Riemann, Dieter; Spiegelhalder, Kai

2016-08-01

Psychological models highlight the bidirectional role of self-referential processing, introspection, worry and rumination in the development and maintenance of insomnia; however, little is known about the underlying neural substrates. Default mode network (DMN) functional connectivity has been previously linked to these cognitive processes. We used fMRI to investigate waking DMN functional connectivity in a well-characterized sample of patients with primary insomnia (PI) and good sleeper controls. We included 20 patients with PI (8 men and 12 women, mean age 42.7 ± 13.4 yr) and 20 controls (8 men and 12 women, mean age 44.1 ± 10.6 yr) in our study. While no between-group differences in waking DMN connectivity were observed, exploratory analyses across all participants suggested that greater waking connectivity between the retrosplenial cortex/hippocampus and various nodes of the DMN was associated with lower sleep efficiency, lower amounts of rapid eye movement sleep and greater sleep-onset latency. Owing to the cross-sectional nature of the study, conclusions about causality cannot be drawn. As sleep disturbances represent a transdiagnostic symptom that is characteristic of nearly all psychiatric disorders, our results may hold particular relevance to previous findings of increased DMN connectivity levels in patients with psychiatric disorders.

The role of empathy in experiencing vicarious anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Jocelyn; Hassell, Samuel; Weber, Jochen; Ochsner, Kevin N; Mobbs, Dean

2017-08-01

With depictions of others facing threats common in the media, the experience of vicarious anxiety may be prevalent in the general population. However, the phenomenon of vicarious anxiety-the experience of anxiety in response to observing others expressing anxiety-and the interpersonal mechanisms underlying it have not been fully investigated in prior research. In 4 studies, we investigate the role of empathy in experiencing vicarious anxiety, using film clips depicting target victims facing threats. In Studies 1 and 2, trait emotional empathy was associated with greater self-reported anxiety when observing target victims, and with perceiving greater anxiety to be experienced by the targets. Study 3 extended these findings by demonstrating that trait empathic concern-the tendency to feel concern and compassion for others-was associated with experiencing vicarious anxiety, whereas trait personal distress-the tendency to experience distress in stressful situations-was not. Study 4 manipulated state empathy to establish a causal relationship between empathy and experience of vicarious anxiety. Participants who took an empathic perspective when observing target victims, as compared to those who took an objective perspective using reappraisal-based strategies, reported experiencing greater anxiety, risk-aversion, and sleep disruption the following night. These results highlight the impact of one's social environment on experiencing anxiety, particularly for those who are highly empathic. In addition, these findings have implications for extending basic models of anxiety to incorporate interpersonal processes, understanding the role of empathy in social learning, and potential applications for therapeutic contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Morse theory on timelike and causal curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Everson, J.; Talbot, C.J.

1976-01-01

It is shown that the set of timelike curves in a globally hyperbolic space-time manifold can be given the structure of a Hilbert manifold under a suitable definition of 'timelike.' The causal curves are the topological closure of this manifold. The Lorentzian energy (corresponding to Milnor's energy, except that the Lorentzian inner product is used) is shown to be a Morse function for the space of causal curves. A fixed end point index theorem is obtained in which a lower bound for the index of the Hessian of the Lorentzian energy is given in terms of the sum of the orders of the conjugate points between the end points. (author)

Tests of the power PC theory of causal induction with negative contingencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanks, David R

2002-01-01

The power PC theory of causal induction (Cheng, 1997) proposes that causal estimates are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the contingency between the cause and effect normalized by the base rate of the effect. Previous tests of this theory have concentrated on generative causes that have positive contingencies with their associated outcomes. Here we empirically test this theory in two experiments using preventive causes that have negative contingencies for their outcomes. Contrary to the power PC theory, the results show that causal judgments vary with contingency across conditions of constant power p. This pattern is consistent, however, with several alternative accounts of causal judgment.

Spatial Causality. An application to the Deforestation Process in Bolivia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Aliaga

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the causes of deforestation for a representative set of Bolivian municipalities. The literature on environmental economics insists on the importance of physical and social factors. We focus on the last group of variables. Our objective is to identify causal mechanisms between these factors of risk and the problem of deforestation. To this end, we present a testing strategy for spatial causality, based on a sequence of Lagrange Multipliers. The results that we obtain for the Bolivian case confirm only partially the traditional view of the problem of deforestation. Indeed, we only find unequivocal signs of causality in relation to the structure of property rights.

Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the Causal Entropic Principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bousso, Raphael; Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

2007-05-01

We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, the principle asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach-weighting by the number of"observers per baryon" -- is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the CausalEntropic Principle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

2007-02-20

We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, it asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach--weighting by the number of ''observers per baryon''--is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

Child Care Subsidy Use and Child Development: Potential Causal Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkinson, Laura E.

2011-01-01

Research using an experimental design is needed to provide firm causal evidence on the impacts of child care subsidy use on child development, and on underlying causal mechanisms since subsidies can affect child development only indirectly via changes they cause in children's early experiences. However, before costly experimental research is…

Is there a causal relationship between alcohol and HIV? Implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There is now conclusive evidence of a causal linkage between heavy drinking patterns and/or alcohol use disorders and the worsening of the disease course for HIV. However, while alcohol usage is consistently associated with the prevalence and incidence of HIV, further research is needed to substantiate causality in ...

Charged singularities: the causality violation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Felice, F; Nobili, L [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Calvani, M [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Astronomia

1980-12-01

A search is made for examples of particle trajectories which, approaching a naked singularity from infinity, make up for lost time before going back to infinity. In the Kerr-Newman metric a whole family of such trajectories is found showing that the causality violation is indeed a non-avoidable pathology.

Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2012-01-01

The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamba, Jean Gaston; Njomo, Donatien; Limanond, Thirayoot; Ntsafack, Borel

2012-01-01

This study examines the causal relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon by using a three-step modern time-series technique. Tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality based on error correction model are employed on annual data covering the period 1975–2008. Empirical results of the study confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30% in the long-run. The overall results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and no causality in the short-run relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth at the 5% level of significance. Thus, the energy policies in Cameroon should place priority on the discovery of new oil field and building capacity additions of the refinery to increase production of petroleum products, as this would propel the economic growth of the country. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationship between diesel consumption and GDP in Cameroon. ► we analyze the petroleum products sector in Cameroon. ► 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30%. ► The policy aimed at improving diesel supply have a positive impact on economics.

Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boruchovitch Evely

2000-01-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. METHODS: Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky. The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. RESULTS: Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

Causality between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung, Bongsuk; Song, Woo-Yong

2013-01-01

This article investigates the causal relationship between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies using panel data from 18 countries for the period 1991–2007. A number of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Time series data on public policies and exports are integrated and cointegrated. The dynamic OLS results indicate that in the long run, a 1% increase in government R and D expenditures (RAD) increases exports (EX) by 0.819%. EX and RAD variables respond to deviations from the long-run equilibrium in the previous period. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Evidence of a bidirectional and short-run, and strong causal relationship between EX and the contribution of renewable energy to the total energy supply (CRES) is uncovered. CRES has a negative effect on EX, whereas EX has a positive effect on CRES. We suggest some policy implications based on the results of this study. - Highlights: ► We model VECM to test the Granger causality between the policies and the export. ► Technology-push policy has a positive impact on export in the long-run. ► There are the short-run causal relationships between market-pull policy and export

Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

2012-07-01

The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.

Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

De Gooijer, Jan G.; Sivarajasingham, Selliah

2008-04-01

This study investigates long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among eleven stock markets, six industrialized markets and five emerging markets of South-East Asia. We cover the period 1987-2006, taking into account the on-set of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We first apply a test for the presence of general nonlinearity in vector time series. Substantial differences exist between the pre- and post-crisis period in terms of the total number of significant nonlinear relationships. We then examine both periods, using a new nonparametric test for Granger noncausality and the conventional parametric Granger noncausality test. One major finding is that the Asian stock markets have become more internationally integrated after the Asian financial crisis. An exception is the Sri Lankan market with almost no significant long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages with other markets. To ensure that any causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VAR filtered residuals and VAR filtered squared residuals for the post-crisis sample. We find quite a few remaining significant bi- and uni-directional causal nonlinear relationships in these series. Finally, after filtering the VAR-residuals with GARCH-BEKK models, we show that the nonparametric test statistics are substantially smaller in both magnitude and statistical significance than those before filtering. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects.

How causal analysis can reveal autonomy in models of biological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, William; Kim, Hyunju; Walker, Sara I.; Tononi, Giulio; Albantakis, Larissa

2017-11-01

Standard techniques for studying biological systems largely focus on their dynamical or, more recently, their informational properties, usually taking either a reductionist or holistic perspective. Yet, studying only individual system elements or the dynamics of the system as a whole disregards the organizational structure of the system-whether there are subsets of elements with joint causes or effects, and whether the system is strongly integrated or composed of several loosely interacting components. Integrated information theory offers a theoretical framework to (1) investigate the compositional cause-effect structure of a system and to (2) identify causal borders of highly integrated elements comprising local maxima of intrinsic cause-effect power. Here we apply this comprehensive causal analysis to a Boolean network model of the fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) cell cycle. We demonstrate that this biological model features a non-trivial causal architecture, whose discovery may provide insights about the real cell cycle that could not be gained from holistic or reductionist approaches. We also show how some specific properties of this underlying causal architecture relate to the biological notion of autonomy. Ultimately, we suggest that analysing the causal organization of a system, including key features like intrinsic control and stable causal borders, should prove relevant for distinguishing life from non-life, and thus could also illuminate the origin of life problem. This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

Parental causal attributions and emotions in daily learning situations with the child.

Science.gov (United States)

Enlund, Emmi; Aunola, Kaisa; Tolvanen, Asko; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

2015-08-01

This study investigated the dynamics between the causal attributions parents reported daily for their children's success in learning situations and parental positive emotions. The sample consisted of 159 mothers and 147 fathers of 162 first graders (83 girls, 79 boys; aged from 6 to 7 years, M = 7.5 years, SD = 3.6 months). Parents filled in a structured diary questionnaire concerning their causal attributions and emotions over 7 successive days in the fall semester and again over 7 successive days in the spring semester. Multilevel analyses showed that both parental causal attributions and positive emotions varied more within parents (between days over the week) than between parents. Furthermore, mothers' positive emotions on a certain day predicted their causal attributions on that same day rather than vice versa. The higher the level of positive emotions parents reported in a specific day, the more they used effort and ability as causal attributions for their offspring's success on that same day. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Do causal concentration-response functions exist? A critical review of associational and causal relations between fine particulate matter and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2017-08-01

Concentration-response (C-R) functions relating concentrations of pollutants in ambient air to mortality risks or other adverse health effects provide the basis for many public health risk assessments, benefits estimates for clean air regulations, and recommendations for revisions to existing air quality standards. The assumption that C-R functions relating levels of exposure and levels of response estimated from historical data usefully predict how future changes in concentrations would change risks has seldom been carefully tested. This paper critically reviews literature on C-R functions for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality risks. We find that most of them describe historical associations rather than valid causal models for predicting effects of interventions that change concentrations. The few papers that explicitly attempt to model causality rely on unverified modeling assumptions, casting doubt on their predictions about effects of interventions. A large literature on modern causal inference algorithms for observational data has been little used in C-R modeling. Applying these methods to publicly available data from Boston and the South Coast Air Quality Management District around Los Angeles shows that C-R functions estimated for one do not hold for the other. Changes in month-specific PM2.5 concentrations from one year to the next do not help to predict corresponding changes in average elderly mortality rates in either location. Thus, the assumption that estimated C-R relations predict effects of pollution-reducing interventions may not be true. Better causal modeling methods are needed to better predict how reducing air pollution would affect public health.

Efectos de la inducción emocional en el Aprendizaje Causal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amparo Herrera

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Uno de los aspectos del aprendizaje causal menos estudiado es el papel que las emociones juegan en dicho aprendizaje. El principal objetivo de esta investigación fue estudiar el impacto que ejercen las emociones sobre una tarea de detección de relaciones causales de carácter afectivo neutral. La inducción de emociones negativas hizo que los participantes subestimaran la relación causal entre los sucesos presentados tanto cuando ésta era de tipo generativo (Experimento 1 – contingencia positiva – como cuando era de tipo preventivo (Experimento 2 – contingencia negativa –. Sin embargo, los participantes recordaban adecuadamente la frecuencia de ocurrencia de cada tipo de ensayo, y sus respuestas de predicción ensayo-a-ensayo no se vieron afectadas por la inducción de emociones. Estos datos parecen apoyar a las teorías que propugnan la existencia de procesos añadidos al mecanismo de cómputo de ocurrencias en la apreciación de relaciones causales entre sucesos, como serían los procesos de integración de la información derivada de las creencias causales previas.

Causality and matter propagation in 3D spin foam quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oriti, Daniele; Tlas, Tamer

2006-01-01

In this paper we tackle the issue of causality in quantum gravity, in the context of 3d spin foam models. We identify the correct procedure for implementing the causality/orientation dependence restriction that reduces the path integral for BF theory to that of quantum gravity in first order form. We construct explicitly the resulting causal spin foam model. We then add matter degrees of freedom to it and construct a causal spin foam model for 3d quantum gravity coupled to matter fields. Finally, we show that the corresponding spin foam amplitudes admit a natural approximation as the Feynman amplitudes of a noncommutative quantum field theory, with the appropriate Feynman propagators weighting the lines of propagation, and that this effective field theory reduces to the usual quantum field theory in flat space in the no-gravity limit

Causal Analysis of Databases Concerning Electromagnetism and Health