A news event-driven approach for the historical value at risk method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, de M.; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

2015-01-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is a tool widely used in financial applications to assess portfolio risk. The historical stock return data used in calculating VaR may be sensitive to rare news events that occur during the sampled period and cause trend disruptions. Therefore, in this paper, we measure the

The use of historical data for the characterisation of multiple damaging hydrogeological events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Petrucci

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Landslides, floods and secondary floods (hereinafter called phenomena triggered by rainfall and causing extensive damage are reviewed in this paper. Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs are defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena. A method for the characterisation of DHEs based upon historic data is proposed. The method is aimed at assessing DHE-related hazard in terms of recurrence, severity, damage, and extent of the affected area. Using GIS, the DHEs historical and climatic data collection, the geomorphological and hydrogeological characterisation of the hit areas, the characterisation of induced damage, the evaluation of triggering rainfall return period and critical duration of each DHE were carried out. The approach was applied to a test site in Southern Italy (Calabria for validation purposes. A database was set up including data from 24 events which have occurred during an 80-year period. The spatial distribution of phenomena was analysed together with the return period of cumulative rainfall. The trend of the occurred phenomena was also compared with the climatic trend. Four main types of Damaging Hydrogeological Events were identified in the study area.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Economic impact and market analysis of a special event: The Great New England Air Show

Science.gov (United States)

Rodney B. Warnick; David C. Bojanic; Atul Sheel; Apurv Mather; Deepak Ninan

2010-01-01

We conducted a post-event evaluation for the Great New England Air Show to assess its general economic impact and to refine economic estimates where possible. In addition to the standard economic impact variables, we examined travel distance, purchase decision involvement, event satisfaction, and frequency of attendance. Graphic mapping of event visitors' home ZIP...

History, Historical and Historicity in Heidegger

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José Manuel CHILLÓN

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to the “Historie” is possible as “Geschichte”, that is, so that the events are more than mere collections of past vestiges, it is necessary that the historical (geschichtlich of history is understood as enshrined in the historicity, in Geschichtlichkeit. In § 6 of the Introduction to ‘Being and Time’ Heidegger understands that the historicity refers to the temporality of Dasein, to its finitude. Thiking of the historicity requires, as its main task, overcoming history as history of entities, in terms of history of forgotten being. And, of course, to think the being, the happening of being and Dasein which, as such event, is being, is occurring , it is historicizing .

Climate and human influences on historical fire regimes (AD 1400-1900) in the eastern Great Basin (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley G. Kitchen

2015-01-01

High fire activity in western North America is associated with drought. Drought and fire prevail under negative El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases in the Southwest and with positive phases in the Northwest. Here, I infer climate effects on historic fire patterns in the geographically intermediate, eastern Great...

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Prince, Karine; Chipault, Jennifer G.; White, C. LeAnn; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2018-01-01

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events.In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae.During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c. 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae.Synthesis and applications. Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated

Numerical Study on the 1682 Tainan Historic Tsunami Event

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Y.; Wu, T.; Lee, C.; KO, L.; Chuang, M.

2013-12-01

We intend to reconstruct the tsunami source of the 1682/1782 tsunami event in Tainan, Taiwan, based on the numerical method. According to Soloviev and Go (1974), a strong earthquake shook the Tainan and caused severe damage, followed by tsunami waves. Almost the whole island was flooded by tsunami for over 120 km. More than 40,000 inhabitants were killed. Forts Zealand and Pigchingi were washed away. 1682/1782 event was the highest death toll in the Pacific Ocean regarded by Bryant (2001). However, the year is ambiguous in 1682 or 1782, and death toll is doubtful. We tend to believe that this event was happened in 1682 based on the evolution of the harbor name. If the 1682 tsunami event does exist, the hazard mitigation plan has to be modified, and restoring the 1682 event becomes important. In this study, we adopted the tsunami reverse tracking method (TRTM) to examine the possible tsunami sources. A series of numerical simulations were carried out by using COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model), and nested grid with 30 m resolution was applied to the study area. According to the result of TRTM, the 1682 tsunami is most likely sourcing from the north segment of Manila Trench. From scenario study, we concluded that the 1682 event was triggered by an Mw >= 8.8 earthquake in north segment of Manila Trench, and 4 m wave height was observed in Tainan and its inundation range is agreeable with historical records. If this scenario occurred again, sever damage and death toll will be seen many high population cities, such as Tainan city, Kaohsiung city and Kenting, where No. 3 nuclear power plant is located. Detailed results will be presented in the full paper. Figure 1. Map of Tsunami Reverse Tracking Method (TRTM) in Tainan. Black arrow indicates direction of possible tsunami direction. The color bar denotes the magnitude of the maximum moment flux. Figure 2. Scenario result of Mw 8.8 in northern segment of Manila Trench. (Left: Initial free surface elevation

The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

2009-01-01

The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

The Great Oxidation Event Recorded in Paleoproterozoic Rocks from Fennoscandia

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Dmitry V. Rychanchik

2010-04-01

Full Text Available With support of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP and other funding organizations, the Fennoscandia Arctic Russia – Drilling Early Earth Project (FAR-DEEP operations have been successfully completed during 2007. A total of 3650 meters of core have been recovered from fifteen holes drilled through sedimentary and volcanic formations in Fennoscandia (Fig. 1, recording several global environmental changes spanning the time interval 2500–2000 Ma, including the Great Oxidation Event (GOE (Holland, 2002. The core was meanwhile curated and archived in Trondheim, Norway, and it has been sampled by an international team of scientists.

Transfer of Telegraph Technology to China: The Role of The Great northern Telegraph Company 1870-1890

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baark, Erik

This report examines the historical events surrounding the introduction of telegraph technology in China by the Danish Great Northern Telegraph Company. It describes the influence of Great Northern on diplomatic relations between Denmark and China during the decades of the 1870s and 1880s......, and the contributions in terms of the establishment of telegraph schools and development of a Chinese telegraph code that this company made as part of the technology transfer process....

Great Men, Great Deeds.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Charles W.

1985-01-01

An excellent way to teach history is by focusing on the lives of individual historical figures. History is the story of living persons, who for good or ill have made history as it is. To understand history, students must learn about the men and women who shaped events. (RM)

The events associated with the great tsunami of 26 December, 2004 sea level variation and impact on coastal region of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shetye, S.R.

-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Satish R. Shetye National Institute of Oceanography, Goa The events associated with the Great Tsunami of 26 December 2004 Sea Level Variation and Impact on Coastal Region of India Tsunamis are shallow... in the region. The Great Tsunami, though an event with a low probability of occurrence, was a high-impact event. One cannot but compare this event with what happened in 1755 along the east coast of the North Atlantic, another low-probability location...

Modeling the Effects of Drought Events on Forest Ecosystem Functioning Historically and Under Scenarios of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild

Cultural Anthropology Study on Historical Narrative and Jade Mythological Concepts in Records of the Great Historian: Annals of the First Emperor of Qin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JUAN WU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper takes Records of the Great Historian: Annals of the First Emperor of Qin, an essential historical narrative at the dawning of Chinese civilization, as a case to illustrate the causality of historical incidents and the underlying mythological concepts, reveal the underlying mythological concepts that dominate the ritual behaviors and narrative expressions, and highlight the prototype function of mythological concepts in the man’s behavior and ideology construction. Once the prototype of certain cultural community is revealed, the evolvement track of its historical cultural texts and the operative relations between coding and re-coding will be better understood.

Feasibility of performing high resolution cloud-resolving simulations of historic extreme events: The San Fruttuoso (Liguria, italy) case of 1915.

Science.gov (United States)

Parodi, Antonio; Boni, Giorgio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco

2017-04-01

Recent studies show that highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapor content. Analyses of available historical records do not provide a univocal answer, since these may be likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria (Italy): The San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs, as they are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the Reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Liguria Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to Reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers and even photographs can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

2017-01-01

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

Historical space weather monitoring of prolonged aurora activities in Japan and in China

Science.gov (United States)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Isobe, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Hisashi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Miyahara, Hiroko; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Yamamoto, Kazuaki; Takei, Masako; Terashima, Tsuneyo; Suzuki, Hidehiko; Fujiwara, Yasunori; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-02-01

Great magnetic storms are recorded as aurora sightings in historical documents. The earliest known example of "prolonged" aurora sightings, with aurora persistent for two or more nights within a 7 day interval at low latitudes, in Japan was documented on 21-23 February 1204 in Meigetsuki, when a big sunspot was also recorded in China. We have searched for prolonged events over the 600 year interval since 620 in Japan based on the catalogue of Kanda and over the 700 year interval since 581 in China based on the catalogues of Tamazawa et al. (2017) and Hayakawa et al. (2015). Before the Meigetsuki event, a significant fraction of the 200 possible aurora sightings in Sòng dynasty (960-1279) of China was detected at least twice within a 7 day interval and sometimes recurred with approximately the solar rotation period of 27 days. The majority of prolonged aurora activity events occurred around the maximum phase of solar cycles rather than around the minimum, as estimated from the 14C analysis of tree rings. They were not reported during the Oort Minimum (1010-1050). We hypothesize that the prolonged aurora sightings are associated with great magnetic storms resulting from multiple coronal mass ejections from the same active region. The historical documents therefore provide useful information to support estimation of great magnetic storm frequency, which are often associated with power outages and other societal concerns.

Did mantle plume magmatism help trigger the Great Oxidation Event?

Science.gov (United States)

Ciborowski, T. Jake. R.; Kerr, Andrew C.

2016-03-01

The Great Oxidation Event (GOE) represents the first sustained appearance of free oxygen in Earth's atmosphere. This fundamental event in Earth's history has been dated to approximately 2450 million years ago (Ma), that is, hundreds of millions of years after the appearance of photosynthetic cyanobacteria in the fossil record. A variety of mechanisms have been suggested to explain this time lag between the onset of photosynthesis and atmospheric oxygenation, including orogenesis, changes in the areal extent and distribution of continental shelves, the secular release of hydrogen to space, and methanogenic bacterial stress. Recently, it has been proposed that subaerial volcanism during the early Proterozoic could have provided a large pulse of sulphate to the ancient oceans, the reduction of which liberated the oxygen to drive the GOE. Here we show that the Matachewan Large Igneous Province (LIP), which is partially preserved in Scandinavia and North America, is both exactly coincident with the onset of the GOE, and of sufficient magnitude to be the source of this sulphate release. We therefore propose that the volcanism associated with the emplacement of the Matachewan LIP was a principal driver of the oxygenation of our planet.

[The application of forensic medical knowledge for the reconstruction of historical events].

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalev, A V; Molin, Yu A; Gorshkov, A N; Smolyanitsky, A G; Mazurova, E A; Vorontsov, G A

2015-01-01

The objective of the present study was to summarize the results of many year investigations on the application of forensic medical methods and experience for the reconstruction of historical events including identification of the ancient Russian saints' hallows and statesmen's remains, elucidation of the genuine causes of death of the members of the Russian Imperial House of Romanovs based on the recently discovered archival materials, restoration of the character of the injuries suffered by Aleksander II, M.I. Kutuzov, P. Demidov, G. Gapon., and G. Rasputin, the attribution A.S. Pushkin's memorial belongings based on the biological traces, and the like.

A Dynamical Downscaling study over the Great Lakes Region Using WRF-Lake: Historical Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.

2014-12-01

As the largest group of fresh water bodies on Earth, the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influence on local and regional weather and climate through their unique physical features compared with the surrounding land. Due to the limited spatial resolution and computational efficiency of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored or idealized into several grid cells in GCMs. Thus, the nested regional climate modeling (RCM) technique, known as dynamical downscaling, serves as a feasible solution to fill the gap. The latest Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to dynamically downscale the historical simulation produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Model (GFDL-CM3) from 1970-2005. An updated lake scheme originated from the Community Land Model is implemented in the latest WRF version 3.6. It is a one-dimensional mass and energy balance scheme with 20-25 model layers, including up to 5 snow layers on the lake ice, 10 water layers, and 10 soil layers on the lake bottom. The lake scheme is used with actual lake points and lake depth. The preliminary results show that WRF-Lake model, with a fine horizontal resolution and realistic lake representation, provides significantly improved hydroclimates, in terms of lake surface temperature, annual cycle of precipitation, ice content, and lake-effect snowfall. Those improvements suggest that better resolution of the lakes and the mesoscale process of lake-atmosphere interaction are crucial to understanding the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.

Literature of a Crisis: The Great War in Anglo-American Modernism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shadi Neimneh

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This paper looks at the representation of war in fiction as a catastrophic social event. In studying or teaching the Great War as represented in modernist literature, we have to acknowledge that fiction, and despite its overlap with history or historical value, is not mere history. War literature retains a powerful sociological orientation. The novels discussed in this paper push real war action to the background and highlight, instead, the impact of war on the subjective lives of individuals and their social interaction. Modernism is not primarily concerned with accurately reproducing the war, but rather with impressionistic details, i.e. the impact of war on introverted lives. Therefore, the real value of such novels is not documentary or historical but social and psychological.

Computer Games as a Tool for Implementation of Memory Policy (on the Example of Displaying Events of The Great Patriotic War in Video Games

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Сергей Игоревич Белов

2018-12-01

Full Text Available The presented work is devoted to the study of the practice of using computer games as a tool of the memory policy. The relevance of this study determines both the growth of the importance of video games as a means of forming ideas about the events of the past, and a low degree of study of this topic. As the goal of the author's research, the research is to identify the prospects for using computer games as an instrument for implementing the memory policy within the framework of the case of the events of the Great Patriotic War. The empirical base of the work was formed due to the generalization of the content of such video games as “Call of Duty 1”, “Call of Duty 14: WWII”, “Company of Heroes 2” and “Commandos 3: Destination Berlin”. The methodological base of the research is formed due to the involvement of elements of descriptive political analysis, the theory of operant conditioning B.F. Skinner and the concept of social identity H. Tajfel and J. Turner. The author comes to the conclusion that familiarization of users with the designated games contributes to the consolidation in the minds of users of negative stereotypes regarding the participation of the Red Army in the Great Patriotic War. The process of integration of negative images is carried out using the methods of operant conditioning. The integration of the system of negative images into the mass consciousness of the inhabitants of the post-Soviet space makes it difficult to preserve the remnants of Soviet political symbols and elements constructed on their basis identity. The author puts forward the hypothesis that in the case of complete desovietization of the public policy space in the states that emerged as a result of the collapse of the USSR, the task of revising the history of the Great Patriotic War will be greatly facilitated, and with the subsequent departure from the life of the last eyewitnesses of the relevant events, achieving this goal will be only a

Narrative of the annotated Space–Time Cube – revisiting a historical event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraak, Menno-Jan; Kveladze, Irma

2017-01-01

The Space–Time Cube (STC) is a suitable representation to display multiple characteristics of movement data and will especially reveal temporal patterns in the data. By adding annotations to the cube’s paths and stations, the narrative of the display is enhanced. To illustrate the STC’s storytell......The Space–Time Cube (STC) is a suitable representation to display multiple characteristics of movement data and will especially reveal temporal patterns in the data. By adding annotations to the cube’s paths and stations, the narrative of the display is enhanced. To illustrate the STC......’s storytelling capabilities, a historical event, Napoleon’s crossing of the Berezina River during his Russian campaign in 1812 is presented and linked to an event in 2012 when the authors made a similar trip. Also, a set of different visual queries and their results are presented, emphasizing the STC...... as an alternative addition to a more extended visualization environment....

Historical Tsunami Event Locations with Runups

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

Historical Trauma, Substance Use, and Indigenous Peoples: Seven Generations of Harm From a "Big Event".

Science.gov (United States)

Nutton, Jennifer; Fast, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Indigenous peoples the world over have and continue to experience the devastating effects of colonialism including loss of life, land, language, culture, and identity. Indigenous peoples suffer disproportionately across many health risk factors including an increased risk of substance use. We use the term "Big Event" to describe the historical trauma attributed to colonial policies as a potential pathway to explain the disparity in rates of substance use among many Indigenous populations. We present "Big Solutions" that have the potential to buffer the negative effects of the Big Event, including: (1) decolonizing strategies, (2) identity development, and (3) culturally adapted interventions. Study limitations are noted and future needed research is suggested.

Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

2017-11-01

Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

Surviving coral bleaching events: porites growth anomalies on the Great Barrier Reef.

Science.gov (United States)

Cantin, Neal E; Lough, Janice M

2014-01-01

Mass coral bleaching affected large parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 1998 and 2002. In this study, we assessed if signatures of these major thermal stress events were recorded in the growth characteristics of massive Porites colonies. In 2005 a suite of short (bleaching. Sites included inshore (Nelly Bay, Pandora Reef), annually affected by freshwater flood events, midshelf (Rib Reef), only occasionally affected by freshwater floods and offshore (Myrmidon Reef) locations primarily exposed to open ocean conditions. Annual growth characteristics (extension, density and calcification) were measured in 144 cores from 79 coral colonies and analysed over the common 24-year period, 1980-2003. Visual examination of the annual density bands revealed growth hiatuses associated with the bleaching years in the form of abrupt decreases in annual linear extension rates, high density stress bands and partial mortality. The 1998 mass-bleaching event reduced Porites calcification by 13 and 18% on the two inshore locations for 4 years, followed by recovery to baseline calcification rates in 2002. Evidence of partial mortality was apparent in 10% of the offshore colonies in 2002; however no significant effects of the bleaching events were evident in the calcification rates at the mid shelf and offshore sites. These results highlight the spatial variation of mass bleaching events and that all reef locations within the GBR were not equally stressed by the 1998 and 2002 mass bleaching events, as some models tend to suggest, which enabled recovery of calcification on the GBR within 4 years. The dynamics in annual calcification rates and recovery displayed here should be used to improve model outputs that project how coral calcification will respond to ongoing warming of the tropical oceans.

Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

Geohazard assessment through the analysis of historical alluvial events in Southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo

2015-04-01

The risk associated with extreme water events such as flash floods, results from a combination of overflows and landslides hazards. A multi-hazard approach have been utilized to analyze the 1773 flood that occurred in conjunction with heavy rainfall, causing major damage in terms of lost lives and economic cost over an area of 200 km2, including both the coastal strip between Salerno and Maiori and the Apennine hinterland, Campania region - Southern Italy. This area has been affected by a total of 40 flood events over the last five centuries, 26 of them occurred between 1900 and 2000. Streamflow events have produced severe impacts on Cava de' Tirreni (SA) and its territory and in particular four catastrophic floods in 1581, 1773, 1899 and 1954, caused a pervasive pattern of destruction. In the study area, rainstorm events typically occur in small and medium-sized fluvial system, characterized by small catchment areas and high-elevation drainage basins, causing the detachment of large amount of volcaniclastic and siliciclastic covers from the carbonate bedrock. The mobilization of these deposits (slope debris) mixed with rising floodwaters along the water paths can produce fast-moving streamflows of large proportion with significant hazardous implications (Violante et al., 2009). In this context the study of 1773 historical flood allows the detection and the definition of those areas where catastrophic events repeatedly took place over the time. Moreover, it improves the understanding of the phenomena themselves, including some key elements in the management of risk mitigation, such as the restoration of the damage suffered by the buildings and/or the environmental effects caused by the floods.

23 March 2015 - Tree planting ceremony Chemin Auguer, by His Holiness the XIIth Gyalwang Drukpa and CERN Director-General, on the occasion of the event Connecting Worlds: Science Meets Buddhism Great Minds, Great Matters.

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Brice, Maximilien

2015-01-01

23 March 2015 - Tree planting ceremony Chemin Auguer, by His Holiness the XIIth Gyalwang Drukpa and CERN Director-General, on the occasion of the event Connecting Worlds: Science Meets Buddhism Great Minds, Great Matters.

Impact of a Historical Fire Event on Pyrogenic Carbon Stocks and Dissolved Pyrogenic Carbon in Spodosols in Northern Michigan

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Fernanda Santos

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Inventories of fire-derived (pyrogenic C (PyC stocks in soils remain incomplete for many parts of the world, yet are critical to reduce uncertainties in global PyC estimates. Additionally, PyC dynamics in soils remain poorly understood. For example, dissolved PyC (DPyC fluxes from soil horizons, as well as the influence of historical fire events on these fluxes and soil PyC stocks remain poorly quantified. In this study, we examined stock and concentration differences in soil PyC and leached DPyC, respectively, between two forest types in the Great Lakes region (USA: (1 a red pine (Pinus resinosa forest planted after the site had experienced post-logging slash burning in the late nineteenth century (100 year-burned site, and (2 a sugar maple (Acer saccharum forest that showed no evidence of burning in the past 250 years (unburned site. We hypothesized that the 100 year-burned site would have greater PyC stocks and concentrations of DPyC compared to the unburned site. We measured PyC in soil, as well as DPyC in soil water leaching from O and E horizons following a spring snowmelt event in both 100 year-burned and unburned sites. Additionally, we measured DPyC drained from B horizons in 100 year-burned site. In organic horizons, PyC stocks were 1.8 (Oi and 2.3 (Oe times greater in the 100 year-burned site than in the unburned site. Contrary to our initial hypothesis, DPyC concentrations did not differ between sites. On average, DPyC leached from all sites contributed 3.11 ± 0.27% of the total dissolved organic carbon pool. In the 100 year-burned site, a significant decline in concentrations of DPyC leaving the B horizon was attributed to the immobilization of this C pool in the Al and Fe oxides-rich subsoil. Even though PyC stock in O horizons was higher in 100 year-burned than in unburned site, our results did not support our initial hypothesis that the 100 year-burned site would have greater DPyC concentrations than the unburned site

Reflection in phraseological neology of traumatic historical events connected with the terrorist threat

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Skorobogatova Taisiya Ivanovna

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of phraseological units - neologisms which are associated with such traumatic historical events, as the implementation of terrorist acts. Particular emphasis is placed on the description of English, Russian and French phraseological units that have introduced the memory of the terrorist threat in the XX-XXI centuries.: Eng. That’s so 10th September (lit. today September 10, fig: Do not worry ahead of time about nothing; Rus. мочить в сортире (descriptor: беспощадно расправиться; фр. le prince s’est mari, le m chant est mort, c’est une semaine Walt Disney (lit. prince married the villain died, week Walt Disney; descriptor: Idyll, g n ration Bataclan (lit. Bataklan generation; descriptor: young people age of the victims who died in the “Bataklane”, i.e. young people aged 25-35. Phraseology description of new, emerging units is one of the most important problems in theoretical linguistics, namely: to illustrate and confirm the fact that the phrasebook body of a single national language is the result of the two memories - historical and linguistic. At the same time important to consider such a significant factor that determines the specificity of the national phraseological fund as memory selectivity in general and historical memory in particular.

Historical Determinants of Regional Divisions of Georgia and their Implications for Territorial Governance

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Mądry Cezary

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Georgia can be characterised by its turbulent history, centuries-old traditions, and a great ethnic diversity. This makes it necessary to include historical determinants, in addition to geopolitical and economic factors, when making a regional analysis of its territory and contemporary governance issues. Five stages of the development of the present territorial division of Georgia are distinguished. They have been identified by means of an analysis of key events (critical junctures of significance in the formation of its historical regions. Additionally, their influence at each of the three levels of the current territorial division of independent Georgia is discussed, in particular in the context of territorial governance.

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments

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Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.

2018-01-01

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to 90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events. PMID:29457133

The historical dynamics of social-ecological traps.

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Boonstra, Wiebren J; de Boer, Florianne W

2014-04-01

Environmental degradation is a typical unintended outcome of collective human behavior. Hardin's metaphor of the "tragedy of the commons" has become a conceived wisdom that captures the social dynamics leading to environmental degradation. Recently, "traps" has gained currency as an alternative concept to explain the rigidity of social and ecological processes that produce environmental degradation and livelihood impoverishment. The trap metaphor is, however, a great deal more complex compared to Hardin's insight. This paper takes stock of studies using the trap metaphor. It argues that the concept includes time and history in the analysis, but only as background conditions and not as a factor of causality. From a historical-sociological perspective this is remarkable since social-ecological traps are clearly path-dependent processes, which are causally produced through a conjunction of events. To prove this point the paper conceptualizes social-ecological traps as a process instead of a condition, and systematically compares history and timing in one classic and three recent studies of social-ecological traps. Based on this comparison it concludes that conjunction of social and environmental events contributes profoundly to the production of trap processes. The paper further discusses the implications of this conclusion for policy intervention and outlines how future research might generalize insights from historical-sociological studies of traps.

Expanding the Notion of Historical Text through Historic Building Analysis

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Baron, Christine; Dobbs, Christina

2015-01-01

Among the disciplinary skills necessary for understanding in the social studies classroom is the ability to determine context and build meaning from past events. Historical buildings are an important component of historical study, and they serve as a type of nontraditional text that students can decode and use to construct meaning about multiple…

Meteotsunamis in the Great Lakes and Investigation into the May 27, 2012 Event on Lake Erie

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Anderson, E. J.; Bechle, A.; Wu, C. H.; Schwab, D. J.; Mann, G.

2016-02-01

Meteotsunami events have been documented in several countries around the world in the coastal ocean, semi-enclosed basins, and in the Great Lakes. In particular, investigations in the Great Lakes have raised the issue of dangers posed by enclosed basins due to the reflection and interaction of meteotsunami waves, in which the destructive waves can arrive several hours after the atmospheric disturbance has passed. This disassociation in time and space between the atmospheric disturbance and resultant meteotsunami wave can pose a significant threat to the public. In a recent event on May 27, 2012, atmospheric conditions gave rise to two convective systems that generated a series of waves in the meteotsunami band on Lake Erie. The resulting waves swept three swimmers a half-mile offshore, inundated a marina, and may have led to a capsized boat along the southern shoreline. Examination of the observed conditions shows that these events occurred at a time between the arrivals of these two storm systems when atmospheric conditions were relatively calm but water level displacements were at their greatest. In this work, we attempt to explain the processes that led to these conditions through a combination of atmospheric and hydrodynamic modeling and an analysis of the observed radial velocities associated with the meteotsunami-inducing front. Results from a high-resolution atmospheric model and hydrodynamic model reveal that the formation of these destructive waves resulted from a combination of wave reflection, focusing, and edge waves that impacted the southern shore of Lake Erie. This event illustrates the unique danger posed by temporal lags between the inducing atmospheric conditions and resulting dangerous nearshore wave conditions.

An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

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Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

2016-03-01

Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

Development of a Historical Hydrological online research and application platform for Switzerland - Historical Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland (HHAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-04-01

It is planned to develop and maintain a historical hydrological online platform for Switzerland, which shall be specially designed for the needs of research and federal, cantonal or private institutions being interested in hydrological risk assessment and protection measures. The aim is on the one hand to facilitate the access to raw data which generally is needed for further historical hydrological reconstruction and quantification, so that future research will be achieved in significantly shorter time. On the other hand, new historical hydrological research results shall be continuously included in order to establish this platform as a useful tool for the assessment of hydrological risk by including the long term experience of reconstructed pre-instrumental hydrological extreme events like floods and droughts. Meteorological parameters that may trigger extreme hydrological events, like monthly or seasonally resolved reconstructions of temperature and precipitation shall be made accessible in this platform as well. The ultimate goal will be to homogenise the reconstructed hydrological extreme events which usually appeared in the pre anthropogenic influence period under different climatological as well as different hydrological regimes and topographical conditions with the present day state. Long term changes of reconstructed small- to extreme flood seasonality, based on municipal accounting records, will be included in the platform as well. This helps - in combination with the before mentioned meteorological parameters - to provide an increased understanding of the major changes in the generally complex overall system that finally causes hydrological extreme events. The goal of my presentation at the Historical Climatology session is to give an overview about the applied historical climatological and historical hydrological methodologies that are applied on the historical raw data (evidence) to reconstruct pre instrumental hydrological events and meteorological

An Astronomical Time Machine: Light Echoes from Historic Supernovae and Stellar Eruptions

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Rest, Armin

2014-01-01

Tycho Brahe's observations of a supernova in 1572 challenged the dogma that the celestial realm was unchanging. Now, 440 years later we have once again seen the light that Tycho saw as simple reflections from walls of Galactic dust. These light echoes, as well as ones detected from other historical events such as Cas A and Eta Carinae's Great Eruption, give us a rare opportunity in astronomy: the direct observation of the cause (the explosion/eruption) and the effect (the remnant) of the same astronomical event. But we can do more: the light echoes let us look at the explosion from different angles, and permit us to map the asymmetries in the explosion. I will discuss how the unprecedented three-dimensional view of these exciting events allows us to unravel some of their secrets.

Great Historical Events that were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 9, the Year Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France (II).

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, J.; Dettwiller, J.

1990-01-01

This paper is an extension of an earlier paper (Neumann 1977) on historical events affected by the weather. More data are published herein on rainfall, pressure and temperature for spring-early summer 1788, when a severe drought struck France during anticyclonic conditions, leading to a crop failure. It is estimated that the grain harvest was 35%-40% below the mean for 1774-88. (The wine-grape harvest was even more catastrophic.) The shortfall led to increasingly high bread prices. The prices reached the highest level on 14 July 1789 (Bastille Day). Since workers spent about 55% of their income on bread and flour prior to 1788, bread riots had already broken out in August 1788. The number and violence of the riots tended to increase with time, causing a destabilization of public order.A meteorological factor of secondary importance was the harsh winter of 1788-89, which brought additional suffering to the lower classes. The price of heating materials rose, and water mills could not be operated because of the ice.Until April 1789 the numerous riots did not have, in most cases, anti-regime overtones. After May, however, the disturbances assumed political overtones, especially in Paris. This was due to agitation by the bourgeoisie who desired the abolition of the many privileges of the nobility and Church, and the lifting of restrictions on some economic activities. The bread riots, caused by the high bread prices (and, ultimately, by the drought), were used by the middle class for overthrowing the existing regime.In France of the 1700s, the number of poor depended on the price of bread which, first and foremost, was determined by the harvest.

Historical prologue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, D.; Bethe, H.A.; Blair, B.G.; Bracken, P.; Carter, A.B.; Dickinson, H.; Garwin, R.L.; Holloway, D.; Kendall, H.W.

1988-01-01

The organizations and machines engaged in a severe nuclear crisis would be its tangible and partially quantifiable factors. For that reason they often dominate our thinking about superpower confrontations. Military organizations, however, are not automatons that can run amok on their own. The perceptions of leaders and populations propel the course of events, and their mindsets are shaped by what experience, history, and myth claim to say about war. Since there has never been combat between nuclear-armed states, it is debatable whether the past has any relevance to what we now face. But the part is all we have to go on. Thus soldiers and statesmen are still haunted by the manner in which this century's two great wars began, and the past thereby influences the thoughts that lead to weapons, to military plans, and to decisions that could turn peace into war. It is therefore essential to have some appreciation for the historical roots that nourish our expectations about international conflict. This paper describes some of these roots

Historical events, groups and mentors: on agents of politicization and multiple ways of entering politics in Argentina

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Mariana Gené

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes the processes of politicization of the elites of the Interior Ministry in Argentina. Supported by in-depth interviews, archival material, journalistic records, and specific bibliography, the paper seeks to shed light on the centrality of historical events, militancy groups, and mentors in such paths. Firstly, we reflect on the role of political events understood as milestones of politicization, which then fuel a dispute over their interpretation and appropriation. Then we refer to the multiple character of the militancy groups and the theoretical and practical knowledge there harvested. Finally, we focus on the role played by mentors in facilitating experiences and contacts, fundamental rudiments for the political profession.

Testing Event Discrimination over Broad Regions using the Historical Borovoye Observatory Explosion Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Pasyanos, Michael E.; Ford, Sean R.; Walter, William R.

2014-03-01

We test the performance of high-frequency regional P/S discriminants to differentiate between earthquakes and explosions at test sites and over broad regions using a historical dataset of explosions recorded at the Borovoye Observatory in Kazakhstan. We compare these explosions to modern recordings of earthquakes at the same location. We then evaluate the separation of the two types of events using the raw measurements and those where the amplitudes are corrected for 1-D and 2-D attenuation structure. We find that high-frequency P/S amplitudes can reliably identify earthquakes and explosions, and that the discriminant is applicable over broad regions as long as propagation effects are properly accounted for. Lateral attenuation corrections provide the largest improvement in the 2-4 Hz band, the use of which may successfully enable the identification of smaller, distant events that have lower signal-to-noise at higher frequencies. We also find variations in P/S ratios among the three main nuclear testing locations within the Semipalatinsk Test Site which, due to their nearly identical paths to BRVK, must be a function of differing geology and emplacement conditions.

Analyses of infrequent (quasi-decadal) large groundwater recharge events in the northern Great Basin: Their importance for groundwater availability, use, and management

Science.gov (United States)

Masbruch, Melissa D.; Rumsey, Christine; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Susong, David D.; Pruitt, Tom

2016-01-01

There has been a considerable amount of research linking climatic variability to hydrologic responses in the western United States. Although much effort has been spent to assess and predict changes in surface water resources, little has been done to understand how climatic events and changes affect groundwater resources. This study focuses on characterizing and quantifying the effects of large, multiyear, quasi-decadal groundwater recharge events in the northern Utah portion of the Great Basin for the period 1960–2013. Annual groundwater level data were analyzed with climatic data to characterize climatic conditions and frequency of these large recharge events. Using observed water-level changes and multivariate analysis, five large groundwater recharge events were identified with a frequency of about 11–13 years. These events were generally characterized as having above-average annual precipitation and snow water equivalent and below-average seasonal temperatures, especially during the spring (April through June). Existing groundwater flow models for several basins within the study area were used to quantify changes in groundwater storage from these events. Simulated groundwater storage increases per basin from a single recharge event ranged from about 115 to 205 Mm3. Extrapolating these amounts over the entire northern Great Basin indicates that a single large quasi-decadal recharge event could result in billions of cubic meters of groundwater storage. Understanding the role of these large quasi-decadal recharge events in replenishing aquifers and sustaining water supplies is crucial for long-term groundwater management.

Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes - A historical review

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, D.K.

2002-01-01

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces the historical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquake are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession of post-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing "retrospective" analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, synthesis of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still

Importance of historical seismicity in the evaluation of large return period hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, C.S.

1983-01-01

This paper reports the results from an historical investigation on earthquake activity in Portugal based on data collected from original sources. A detailed revision of earthquake catalogues in what concerns date of occurrence, isosseismal maps, epicentral location, magnitude and duration of vibration was made for most of the 260 events identified in the period 1000 to 1900. Introducing this new piece of information which exhibits a much higher degree of quality into standard hazard models, uncertainties on final estimates for the zones of large return periods, RP, (RP > 200 years) are greatly reduced

Appreciation of historical events and characters: their relationship with national identity and collective self-esteem in a sample of public school teachers from the city of Lima.

Science.gov (United States)

Rottenbacher de Rojas, Jan Marc

2010-11-01

This study analyzes the relation between national identity and the appreciation of the characters and events of Peruvian history in a sample of public school teachers from the city of Lima (N = 99). Adapted versions of the NATID Scale (Keillor et al., 1996) and the CSES Scale (Luhtanen & Crocker, 1992) are used as measures of national identity. National pride and interest in knowing about Peruvian history are variables also included in this study. The study shows that appreciation of historical characters is more positive than appreciation of historical events. There is a positive association between national identity and appreciation of Peruvian historical characters. A multiple linear regression model is proposed; this model shows that appreciation of cultural heritage and national pride has a positive impact on the appreciation of characters of Peruvian history.

Evaluation and cataloging of Korean historical earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Kew Hwa; Han, Young Woo; Lee, Jun Hui; Park, Ji Eok; Na, Kwang Wooing; Shin, Byung Ju

1999-03-01

Historical earthquake data of the Korean Peninsula which are very important is evaluating seismicity and seismic hazard of the peninsula were collected and analyzed by seismologist and historian. A preliminary catalog of Korean historical earthquake data translated in English was made. Felt places of 528 events felt at more than 2 places were indicated on maps and MMI III isoseismal were drawn for 52 events of MMI≥VII. Epicenters and intensities of these MMI≥VII events were estimated from these isoseismal maps

Evaluation and cataloging of Korean historical earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Kew Hwa; Han, Young Woo; Lee, Jun Hui; Park, Ji Eok; Na, Kwang Wooing; Shin, Byung Ju [The Reaearch Institute of Basic Sciences, Seoul Nationl Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1999-03-15

Historical earthquake data of the Korean Peninsula which are very important is evaluating seismicity and seismic hazard of the peninsula were collected and analyzed by seismologist and historian. A preliminary catalog of Korean historical earthquake data translated in English was made. Felt places of 528 events felt at more than 2 places were indicated on maps and MMI III isoseismal were drawn for 52 events of MMI{>=}VII. Epicenters and intensities of these MMI{>=}VII events were estimated from these isoseismal maps.

Insights into a historic severe haze event in Shanghai: synoptic situation, boundary layer and pollutants

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C. Leng

2016-07-01

Full Text Available A historic haze event, characterized by lengthy, large-scale and severe pollution, occurred in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD of China from 1 to 10 December 2013. This haze event significantly influenced air quality throughout the region, especially in urban areas. Aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties were measured in Shanghai. Sometimes the 1 h average particle concentration (e.g., PM2.5 exceeded 600 µg m−3. Inorganic water-soluble ions in particles, trace gases and aerosol optical coefficients had a similar tendency to increase evidently from clear to hazy episodes. A combination of various factors contributed to the formation and evolution of the haze event, among which meteorological conditions, local anthropogenic emissions and pollutants are the major factors. High pressure system, calm surface wind and subsidence airflow were responsible for the decrease of planetary boundary layer (PBL and the accumulation of pollutants. Atmospheric visibility correlated strongly with relative humidity (RH, particle number in size of 600–1400 nm other than particulate water-soluble species and particle mass (PM2.5. The particle hygroscopicity plays an important role in atmospheric visibility reduction. The results are somewhat helpful to forecast and eliminate regional atmospheric pollution in China.

MUSEUM META-NARRATIVES AND MICRO-STORIES OF THE GREAT RUSSIAN REVOLUTION (TO THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE REVOLUTION

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Chuvilova Irina

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to an overview and analysis of Museum projects dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the Great Russian revolution. Preparing for the anniversary initiated a return to the difficult topic, the desire to relate modern historical knowledge of the Museum and of a concept of Russian history on the whole space of the country. The author selects two main groups of Museum projects with meta-and microhistory, which are disclosed through the regional aspects of the event, the individual aspects, the monologue of a single event or a single artifact, cultural theoretical reflection, personal understanding of our contemporaries.

Assessing historical empathy through simulation – How do Finnish teacher students achieve contextual historical empathy?

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Jukka Rantala

2011-05-01

Full Text Available There has been a great deal of international debate about introducing historical empathy as the focus in teaching history. However, as it is, the contents of the concept have been included in the curricula in many countries. Nevertheless, practising stepping into the shoes of a person from a previous era is still in its infancy in schools in many locations – Finland included. This article discusses Finnish class teacher students' understanding of historical empathy. The article is based on a study where 360 class teacher students played a game simulating the Cuban Missile Crisis. Their task was to assume the roles of the superpower leaders and make decisions on the basis of these roles. The simulation showed that a majority of the student teachers are able to attain a level of contextual historical empathy. They were able to empathize with the historical context in question and make such decisions that would have been possible for the historical actors. Some of the playing groups on the other hand, referred to their current knowledge and attitudes, which, according to Ashby and Lee's empathy classification, shows lower-level empathy. The study corroborates previous research results concerning great discrepancies in the understanding of empathy prevalent within one age group. Moreover, the study raises the question of how historical empathy should be handled in teaching if many future teachers have difficulties in understanding it.

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

2009-04-01

The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

2014-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

2013-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Mid-latitude Ozone Depletion Events Caused by Halogens from the Great Salt Lake in Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Fibiger, D. L.; Goldberger, L.; Womack, C.; McDuffie, E. E.; Dube, W. P.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Thornton, J. A.; Brown, S. S.

2017-12-01

Halogens are highly reactive chemicals and play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. They can be involved in many cycles which influence the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, including through destruction of ozone (O3). While the influence of halogens on O3 is well documented in the arctic, there are very few observations of O3 depletion driven by halogens in the mid-latitudes. To date, the most comprehensive study observed co-occurring plumes of BrO and depleted O3 near the Dead Sea in 1997. During the Utah Wintertime Fine Particulate Study (UWFPS) in winter 2017, simultaneous measurements of a comprehensive suite of halogen measurements by I- chemical ionization mass spectrometry and O3 from cavity ring-down spectroscopy, both at 1-second time resolution, were taken on a NOAA Twin Otter Aircraft over the Great Salt Lake and in the surrounding valleys. Many O3 depletion events were observed over the lake with O3 values sometimes below the instrument detection limit of 0.5 ppbv. Corresponding increases in BrO and/or ClO were observed. Many of these events were caused by extremely high levels of halogens (up to 1 ppmv Cl2) emitted from the U.S. Magnesium plant on the edge of the lake. The O3 depletion caused by U.S. Magnesium was usually isolated to a distinct vertical layer, but in other cases O3 depletion was vertically mixed and the origin of halogen activation was not immediately clear. The most complete O3 depletion was observed over the lake, but there were smaller events of a few ppbv observed in the adjacent valleys, including the highly populated Salt Lake Valley, with corresponding plumes of BrO and ClO, due to transport from the lake. Additionally, meteorology played a role in the observed O3 depletion. The strongest O3 depletion was observed during inversion events, when there is a low boundary layer and little mixing out of the air above the lake. During non-inversion conditions, only small depletions were observed, covering a much smaller

The effect of migration on ages at vital events: a critique of family reconstitution in historical demography.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasakoff, A B; Adams, J W

1995-09-01

The empirical findings of this study challenge the premise that stayers in a population, historical or otherwise, capture the changes over time that occurred in populations as a whole. Systematic differences between stayers and movers occur and result in differences in ages at vital events. This paper aims to show how two kinds of differences can be distinguished in a set of data. The data used in this analysis was obtained from nine published genealogies on New England families with ancestors who migrated prior to 1650 and settled throughout the northern region of the United States until 1880. The most complete data on births and deaths pertained to 3612 men descended in the male line before 1840. 72% of this sample moved from the native towns during their lifetimes. The findings lend support to Ruggles' hypothesis about migration censorship--that studies based on family reconstructions systematically underestimate ages at vital events because of the exclusion of migrants. The aim was not to support or disprove his hypothesis but to distinguish two sources of differences due to migration censorship and due to different socioeconomic opportunities in which movers and stayers have lived their lives. The data document the differences in marriage age and age at death between movers and stayers. Movers were found to marry and die at later ages than stayers. Some socioeconomic factors might delay the ages at vital events and counteract the increases in age associated with migration censorship and thus reflect similar age patterns as stayers. Socioeconomic opportunities are considered as factors affecting both stayers and movers. The conclusion is reached that a "correction" factor is not possible to extrapolate from stayers to the larger population because of changing migration rates over time. Migration censorship is described as being the product of boundary making that is typical of colonizing populations. Few options are available for eliminating censorship. This

NATIONAL HISTORICAL EVENTS IN IRANIAN COLLECTIVE MEMORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Ebadollahi Chanzanagh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate presence of nationalhistorical events in Iraniancollective memory. According to social theorists remembering is a socialphenomenon which occurs in social cadres. In Iranian social context, ethnicity,generation, religion and education are important social cadres of memory. 384national samples from three different ethnicities,Azeri, Gilaki and Kurd, werechosen by quota sampling. Results of survey indicated three social cadres ofgeneration, religion and education explained remembering national historicalevents and Iranian collective memory is basically rooted in national historicalevents rather than ethnic one. ‘The 1979 Islamic revolution’, ‘Iran’s oilnationalization and the following 1953 Iranian coupd’état’ from the last centuryevents and ‘Iranian constitutional revolution’, ‘Russo-Persian wars’ from prior tothe last century events are the most important national events remembered byIranian.

Inferring recent historic abundance from current genetic diversity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palsboll, Per J.; Peery, M. Zachariah; Olsen, Morten T.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Berube, Martine

Recent historic abundance is an elusive parameter of great importance for conserving endangered species and understanding the pre-anthropogenic state of the biosphere. The number of studies that have used population genetic theory to estimate recent historic abundance from contemporary levels of

Great paleoearthquakes of the central Himalaya and their implications for seismotectonic models and seismic hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Yule, D.; Lave, J.; Kumar, S.; Wesnousky, S.

2007-12-01

A growing body of paleoseismic data collected from more than ten sites in Nepal and India has documented large coseismic displacements at the thrust front (Main Frontal thrust (MFT)). Three great earthquakes have been identified: in ~A.D. 1410 centered north of Delhi, in A.D. 1505 centered in far-western Nepal, and in ~A.D. 1100 centered in eastern Nepal. It is noteworthy that wherever exposures of the MFT have been studied estimates of surface slip are consistently large; with a range of 9-26 m. Historic accounts of the 1505 earthquake describe strong shaking across a 600-km-long stretch of the central Himalaya. A magnitude for this event is estimated to be >Mw 8.5 based on the maximum extent of felt strong shaking, the 100 km width of the locked portion of the basal detachment, and an average slip of 10-15 m. Though no historic accounts exist for the ~1410 and ~1100 earthquakes, the similarity between their surface expression and the 1505 rupture suggests that these events may have been equally large. These surface-rupturing earthquakes are distinctly different from a host of blind thrust events (Mw 7.5-8.4) that dominate the historic record since A.D. 1505. Both blind and emergent earthquakes are presumed to rupture the basal detachment and release interseismic strain that accumulates near the base of the High Himalaya and carry it to the thrust front where Holocene shortening occurs at rates of 15-22 mm/yr. Whereas the surface-rupturing earthquakes clearly deform the thrust front, survey data from the region affected by the 1906 Dehra Dun earthquake suggest that blind events contribute negligible, if any, deformation to the frontal structures. The factors controlling whether or not surface rupture occurs on the MFT remain unconstrained, but the current data seem to suggest that >Mw 8.5 surface-rutpuring earthquakes are the primary contributors to the shortening observed at the thrust front. It is sobering to consider that the 'Big One' has not struck the

Big Data and historical social science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Bearman

2015-11-01

Full Text Available “Big Data” can revolutionize historical social science if it arises from substantively important contexts and is oriented towards answering substantively important questions. Such data may be especially important for answering previously largely intractable questions about the timing and sequencing of events, and of event boundaries. That said, “Big Data” makes no difference for social scientists and historians whose accounts rest on narrative sentences. Since such accounts are the norm, the effects of Big Data on the practice of historical social science may be more limited than one might wish.

VT Roadside Historic Markers

Data.gov (United States)

Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Roadside Historic Site Marker program has proven an effective way to commemorate Vermont’s many people, events, and places of regional, statewide, or national...

The Gulf of Carpentaria heated Torres Strait and the Northern Great Barrier Reef during the 2016 mass coral bleaching event

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolanski, E.; Andutta, Fernando P.; Deleersnijder, E.L.C.; Li, Y.; Thomas, C.J.

The 2015/16 ENSO event increased the temperature of waters surrounding northeast Australia to above 30 °C, with large patches of water reaching 32 °C, for over two months, which led to severe bleaching of corals of the Northern Great Barrier Reef (NGBR). This study provides evidence gained from

A short history of Japanese historical seismology: past and the present

Science.gov (United States)

Matsu'ura, Ritsuko S.

2017-12-01

Since seismicity in Japan is fairly high, Japanese interest in historical seismicity can be traced back to the nineth century, only a few centuries after the formation of the ancient ruling state. A 1000 years later, 2 years earlier than the modern seismological society was founded, the research on historical seismology started in Japan in 1878. By the accumulation for the recent 140 years, the present Japanese seismologists can read many historical materials without reading cursive scripts. We have a convenient access to the historical information related to earthquakes, in the modern characters of 27,759 pages. We now have 214 epicenters of historical earthquakes from 599 ad to 1872. Among them, 134 events in the early modern period were assigned hypocentral depths and proper magnitudes. The intensity data of 8700 places by those events were estimated. These precise intensity data enabled us to compare the detailed source areas of pairs of repeated historical earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake with the 1923 Kanto earthquake, and the 1707 Hoei earthquake with the summation of the 1854 Ansei Tokai and Ansei Nankai earthquakes. It is revealed that the focal area of the former larger event cannot completely include those of the latter smaller earthquakes, although those were believed to be typical sets of characteristic interplate earthquakes at the Sagami trough and at the Nankai trough. Research on historical earthquakes is very important to assess the seismic hazard in the future. We still have one-fifth events of the early modern period to be analyzed in detail. The compilation of places experienced high intensities in the modern events is also necessary. For the ancient and medieval periods, many equivocal events are still left. The further advance of the interdisciplinary research on historical seismology is necessary.

Anomalies and contradictions in an airport construction project: a historical analysis based on Cultural-Historical Activity Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, Manoela Gomes Reis; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; Querol, Marco Antônio Pereira

2018-02-19

Large construction projects involve the functioning of a complex activity system (AS) in network format. Anomalies such as accidents, delays, reworks, etc., can be explained by contradictions that emerge historically in the system. The aim of this study was to analyze the history of an airport construction project to understand the current contradictions and anomalies in the AS and how they emerged. A case study was conducted for this purpose, combining Collective Work Analysis, interviews, observations, and analysis of documents that provided the basis for sessions in the Change Laboratory, where a participant timeline was elaborated with the principal events during the construction project. Based on the timeline, a historical analysis of the airport's AS revealed critical historical events and contradictions that explained the anomalies that occurred during the project. The analysis showed that the airport had been planned for construction with politically determined deadlines that were insufficient and inconsistent with the project's complexity. The choice of the contract modality, which assigned responsibility to a joint venture for all of the project's phases, was another critical historical event, because it allowed launching the construction before a definitive executive project had been drafted. There were also different cultures in companies working together for the first time in the context of a project with time pressures and outsourcing of activities without the necessary coordination. Identifying these contradictions and their historical origins proved essential for understanding the current situation and efforts to prevent similar situations in the future.

Great War legacies in Serbian culture

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Milojković-Đurić Jelena

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the aftermath of the Great War, Ivo Andrić published a number of poems, essays and short stories describing the hard-won victorious outcome as transient to the dire reality of the inordinate loss of human lives and suffering. Yet, personal experiences, although perceived as ephemeral, helped to define the historical discourse capturing man’s resolve to persist in his chosen mission. Over time, Serbian literature and fine arts sustained an unfinished dialogue of the past and the present, merging the individual voices with the collective voices to construct the national narrative. The young writer Miloš Crnjanski observed the sights of destruction and despair that seemed to pale in new literary works pertaining to the war. His novel A Diary about Čarnojević was closely related to his own perilous wartime journey as a conscript in the Austrian army. The vastness of Pannonian plains and Galician woods must have invoked a comparison of sorts with another historic chapter recorded in the collective consciousness of his nation: the Great Migration of Serbs led by Patriarch Arsenije III Čarnojević (Crnojević in 1690. The very title of the novel contained a powerful reference to the migration, and its illustrious historic leader which has not been discussed or explored before.

Great magnetic storms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

1992-01-01

The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

Understanding Great Earthquakes in Japan's Kanto Region

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Reiji; Curewitz, Daniel

2008-10-01

Third International Workshop on the Kanto Asperity Project; Chiba, Japan, 16-19 February 2008; The 1703 (Genroku) and 1923 (Taisho) earthquakes in Japan's Kanto region (M 8.2 and M 7.9, respectively) caused severe damage in the Tokyo metropolitan area. These great earthquakes occurred along the Sagami Trough, where the Philippine Sea slab is subducting beneath Japan. Historical records, paleoseismological research, and geophysical/geodetic monitoring in the region indicate that such great earthquakes will repeat in the future.

Stress Transfer Processes during Great Plate Boundary Thrusting Events: A Study from the Andaman and Nicobar Segments

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, V.; Rajendran, K.

2010-12-01

The response of subduction zones to large earthquakes varies along their strike, both during the interseismic and post-seismic periods. The December 26, 2004 earthquake nucleated at 3° N latitude and its rupture propagated northward, along the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone, terminating at 15°N. Rupture speed was estimated at about 2.0 km per second in the northern part under the Andaman region and 2.5 - 2.7 km per second under southern Nicobar and North Sumatra. We have examined the pre and post-2004 seismicity to understand the stress transfer processes within the subducting plate, in the Andaman (10° - 15° N ) and Nicobar (5° - 10° N) segments. The seismicity pattern in these segments shows distinctive characteristics associated with the outer rise, accretionary prism and the spreading ridge, all of which are relatively better developed in the Andaman segment. The Ninety East ridge and the Sumatra Fault System are significant tectonic features in the Nicobar segment. The pre-2004 seismicity in both these segments conform to the steady-state conditions wherein large earthquakes are fewer and compressive stresses dominate along the plate interface. Among the pre-2004 great earthquakes are the 1881 Nicobar and 1941 Andaman events. The former is considered to be a shallow thrust event that generated a small tsunami. Studies in other subduction zones suggest that large outer-rise tensional events follow great plate boundary breaking earthquakes due to the the up-dip transfer of stresses within the subducting plate. The seismicity of the Andaman segment (1977-2004) concurs with the steady-state stress conditions where earthquakes occur dominantly by thrust faulting. The post-2004 seismicity shows up-dip migration along the plate interface, with dominance of shallow normal faulting, including a few outer rise events and some deeper (> 100 km) strike-slip faulting events within the subducting plate. The September 13, 2002, Mw 6.5 thrust faulting earthquake at

Great earthquakes and slow slip events along the Sagami trough and outline of the Kanto Asperity Project

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, R.; Yamamoto, Y.; Sato, T.; Shishikura, M.; Ito, H.; Shinohara, M.; Kawamura, K.; Shibazaki, B.

2010-12-01

The Kanto region is one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world. Complicated plate configurations are due to T-T-T type triple junction, island arc-island arc collision zone, and very shallow angle between axis of the Sagami trough and subducting direction. Great earthquakes along the Sagami trough have repeatedly occurred. The 1703 Genroku and 1923 (Taisho) Kanto earthquakes caused severe damages in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Intriguingly slow slip events have also repeatedly occurred in an area adjacent to the asperities of the great earthquakes, off Boso peninsula (e.g., Ozawa et al 2007). In the cases of the Nankai and Cascadia subduction zones, slow slip events occur at deeper levels than the asperity, in a transition zone between the asperity and a region of steady slip. In contrast, slow slip events in the Kanto region have occurred at relatively shallow depths, at the same level as the asperity, raising the possibility of friction controlled by different conditions to those (temperature and pressure) encountered at Nankai and Cascadia. We focus on three different types of seismic events occurring repeatedly at the almost same depth of the seismogenic zone along the Sagami trough (5-20 km) (1) The 1923 M~7.9 Taisho earthquake, located in Sagami Bay. Maximum slip is about 6 m, the recurrence interval is 200-400 yr, and the coupling rate is 80-100% (“coupling rates” = “slip amounts during earthquakes or slow-slip events” / [“rate of motion of the Philippine Sea Plate” - “recurrence interval”]) . (2) The 1703 M~8.2 Genroku earthquake, located in Sagami Bay, but also extending to the southern part of Boso Peninsula. Maximum slip is 15-20 m, the recurrence interval is ~2000 yr, and the coupling rate at the southern part of the Boso Peninsula is 10-30%. (3) Boso slow-slip events, located southeast of Boso Peninsula. Maximum slip is 15-20 cm over ~10 days, the recurrence interval is 5-6 yr, and the coupling rate is 70

Historical hotels in “Golden Prague”

OpenAIRE

Bończak, Bartosz

2008-01-01

Prague, with its monuments of great historical and artistic value, has been gaining popularity in recent years. It has become one of the most important tourist destinations in Central Europe. This is the reason why hotel industry in this city is developing so quickly – there are 654 collective tourist accommodation establishments with 547 hotels, motels, pensions and residences, which is more than 83%. Establishments, located in the old, historical buildings, are among the m...

Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

2013-01-01

The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

Social representation of events in world history: crosscultural consensus or Western discourse? How Turkish students view events in world history.

Science.gov (United States)

Özer, Serap; Ergün, Gökçe

2013-01-01

The perceptions of historical events are considered to be an important cultural, political, and social psychological variable. Earlier studies have shown a crosscultural consensus on historical events that are considered to be important. It has been indicated that a strong Western-Christian European template dominates the view of which events are considered to be important events in history, by many samples across the world. It was the aim of this study to test this finding with a Turkish sample, which would represent some unique characteristics in that it is Muslim, comes from an Empire background, and has undergone a recent nation-building process. College students (n = 372) responded to a questionnaire that was utilized in seven other countries. It was shown that Turkish students were not Eurocentric as expected by the literature: They were highly sociocentric; they gave importance to events related to Turkish history. They were similar to their European counterparts in that war and violence were given primary importance when selecting events as important in history. However, they did not behave as predicted by earlier literature: They did not see Western European events as having a primary importance in history but gave at least equal importance to events that originated from Ottoman Empire roots. The results were discussed in terms of the unique cultural and historical variables that contribute to the identity and social psychological attributions of Turkish students. Further research should focus on not only which events are considered as important historical events but also the reasons behind these.

Use of cartography in historical seismicity analysis: a reliable tool to better apprehend the contextualization of the historical documents

Science.gov (United States)

Thibault, Fradet; Grégory, Quenet; Kevin, Manchuel

2014-05-01

Historical studies, including historical seismicity analysis, deal with historical documents. Numerous factors, such as culture, social condition, demography, political situations and opinions or religious ones influence the way the events are transcribed in the archives. As a consequence, it is crucial to contextualize and compare the historical documents reporting on a given event in order to reduce the uncertainties affecting their analysis and interpretation. When studying historical seismic events it is often tricky to have a global view of all the information provided by the historical documents. It is also difficult to extract cross-correlated information from the documents and draw a precise historical context. Use of cartographic and geographic tools in GIS software is the best tool for the synthesis, interpretation and contextualization of the historical material. The main goal is to produce the most complete dataset of available information, in order to take into account all the components of the historical context and consequently improve the macroseismic analysis. The Entre-Deux-Mers earthquake (1759, Iepc= VII-VIII) [SISFRANCE 2013 - EDF-IRSN-BRGM] is well documented but has never benefited from a cross-analysis of historical documents and historical context elements. The map of available intensity data from SISFRANCE highlights a gap in macroseismic information within the estimated epicentral area. The aim of this study is to understand the origin of this gap by making a cartographic compilation of both, archive information and historical context elements. The results support the hypothesis that the lack of documents and macroseismic data in the epicentral area is related to a low human activity rather than low seismic effects in this zone. Topographic features, geographical position, flood hazard, roads and pathways locations, vineyards distribution and the forester coverage, mentioned in the archives and reported on the Cassini's map confirm this

HISTORICAL PROSE ON «COSSACKS» IN THE COLLECTIONS OF THE UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND ITS ROLE IN THE EVENTS OF UKRAINIAN REVOLUTION OF 1917-1921

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Д. В. Кобельський

2017-02-01

of the 20th century about the Cossacks and their role in events of 1917-1921 that is in funds of Scientific Library of the Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University. The main objective of article is to expand knowledge of the unique editions, which are contained in a meeting of university library. On concrete examples, it is shown how the historical prose, ideologically influenced participants of events, the essence of use of the idea of the Cossacks by warring parties in race for power in Ukraine is disclosed 1917-1921. The popularity reasons of “the Cossack myth” in the Ukrainian people are established. In article, various parties of events of that time in the territory of Ukraine pay special attention to the analysis of various forms of involvement of the Cossacks. The main contribution of work, consists in what has been tracked library marks on this subject, clarifications of owners of books, are tracked bibliographic notes and dedicatory inscriptions and so forth. Results of a research have practical value for all who are interested in history of the Ukrainian revolution of 1917-1921, the Ukrainian historical fiction the beginning of the 20th century and history of Scientific Library of University.

Mapping and historical reconstruction of the great Mexican 22 June 1932 tsunami

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Corona

2012-05-01

Full Text Available At 07:00 h (UTC-6 on 22 June 1932, a M_s = 6.9 earthquake shocked the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. Five minutes later a tsunami arrived at the coast. It almost completely destroyed the town of Cuyutlán, Colima, causing the deaths of 50 people and leaving about 1200 injured. In this study, newspaper reports and technical reports are reviewed, as well as survivors' testimonials. The physical characteristics (mean sea level at the time, time of arrival, sea retreat, and inundation distribution and the tsunami effects (number of victims, injuries, affected buildings have been reconstructed and mapped. The interpretation of historical data allowed us to determine the intensity of the tsunami and to reveal the tsunamigenic source. This study emphasizes the relevance of historical analysis, including survivor's testimonies, in the reconstruction of tsunamis that lack instrumental data. The results of this study are relevant to paleotsunami studies and tsunami related hazard planning.

Large-scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, T P; Kerry, J T; Simpson, T

2018-02-01

In 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching. In the southern hemisphere summer of March-April 2016, we used aerial surveys to measure the level of bleaching on 1,156 individual reefs throughout the 2,300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest coral reef system. The accuracy of the aerial scores was ground-truthed with detailed underwater surveys of bleaching at 260 sites (104 reefs), allowing us to compare aerial and underwater bleaching data with satellite-derived temperatures and with associated model predictions of bleaching. The severity of bleaching on individual reefs in 2016 was tightly correlated with the level of local heat exposure: the southernmost region of the Great Barrier Reef escaped with only minor bleaching because summer temperatures there were close to average. Gradients in nutrients and turbidity from inshore to offshore across the Great Barrier Reef had minimal effect on the severity of bleaching. Similarly, bleaching was equally severe on reefs that are open or closed to fishing, once the level of satellite-derived heat exposure was accounted for. The level of post-bleaching mortality, measured underwater after 7-8 months, was tightly correlated with the aerial scores measured at the peak of bleaching. Similarly, reefs with a high aerial bleaching score also experienced major shifts in species composition due to extensive mortality of heat-sensitive species. Reefs with low bleaching scores did not change in composition, and some showed minor increases in coral cover. Two earlier mass bleaching events occurred on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998 and 2002, that were less severe than 2016. In 2016, bleaching, compared to 42% in 2002 and 44% in 1998. Conversely, the proportion of reefs that were severely bleached (>60% of corals affected) was four times higher in 2016. The geographic footprint of each of the three events is distinctive, and matches satellite-derived sea surface

Detection capabilities. Some historical footnotes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Currie, L.A.

2017-01-01

Part I Summary of relevant topics from 1923 to present-including: Currie (Anal Chem 40:586-593, 1968) detection concepts and capabilities; International detection and uncertainty standards; Failure of classical "1"4C dating and birth of new scientific disciplines; Exploratory nuclear data analysis of "8"5Kr monitors found coincident with the collapse of the Iron Curtain (1989); Faulty statistics proved responsible for mistaken assertions that Currie's LC yields excessive false positives; Low-level counting and AMS for atmospheric "3"7Ar and µmolar fossil/biomass carbon in the environment; Erroneous assumption that our low-level background is a Poisson Process, linked to ∼8 % spurious anticoincidence events. Part II. Exact treatment of bivariate Poisson data-solved in 1930s by Przyborowski and Wilenski, Krakow University, for detecting extreme trace amounts of a malicious contaminant (dodder) in high purity seed standards. We adapted their treatment to detection capabilities in ultra-low-level nuclear counting. The timing of their work had great historical significance, marking the start of World War II, with the invasion of Poland (1939). (author)

Onset of the aerobic nitrogen cycle during the Great Oxidation Event.

Science.gov (United States)

Zerkle, Aubrey L; Poulton, Simon W; Newton, Robert J; Mettam, Colin; Claire, Mark W; Bekker, Andrey; Junium, Christopher K

2017-02-23

The rise of oxygen on the early Earth (about 2.4 billion years ago) caused a reorganization of marine nutrient cycles, including that of nitrogen, which is important for controlling global primary productivity. However, current geochemical records lack the temporal resolution to address the nature and timing of the biogeochemical response to oxygenation directly. Here we couple records of ocean redox chemistry with nitrogen isotope ( 15 N/ 14 N) values from approximately 2.31-billion-year-old shales of the Rooihoogte and Timeball Hill formations in South Africa, deposited during the early stages of the first rise in atmospheric oxygen on the Earth (the Great Oxidation Event). Our data fill a gap of about 400 million years in the temporal 15 N/ 14 N record and provide evidence for the emergence of a pervasive aerobic marine nitrogen cycle. The interpretation of our nitrogen isotope data in the context of iron speciation and carbon isotope data suggests biogeochemical cycling across a dynamic redox boundary, with primary productivity fuelled by chemoautotrophic production and a nitrogen cycle dominated by nitrogen loss processes using newly available marine oxidants. This chemostratigraphic trend constrains the onset of widespread nitrate availability associated with ocean oxygenation. The rise of marine nitrate could have allowed for the rapid diversification and proliferation of nitrate-using cyanobacteria and, potentially, eukaryotic phytoplankton.

Historical Roots of Generalized Trust in Polish Society

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Borowiecki Łukasz

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The article analyses how historical events shape generalized trust in contemporary Polish society. The analysis consists of a set of logistic regression models. The impact of historical variables is controlled for age, sex, education and the size of the municipality. This is the first quantitative study on Poland that links historical events with the current levels of trust among Polish citizens. The common knowledge is that the Partitions of Poland had negative impact on trust. Literature on the topic hints that historical demo? graphics should play a role too. The findings suggest that Partitions had little impact with only Greater Poland and Pomerania having lower levels of generalized trust. Historical literacy rate and the presence of Ukrainian or Belarusian population are negatively associated with generalized trust while the abrupt migrations after the World War I are positively associated. The rapid character of migration is supposed to positively impact generalized trust by forcing individuals to cooperate and rely on people with whom they have no personal ties.

Hard Times and New Deals: Teaching Fifth Graders about the Great Depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Fertig, Gary

2001-01-01

Presents a fifth grade study unit about the Great Depression that attempts to incorporate research on student's historical understanding. Features activities that include a simulation focusing on how people lost money, children writing letters to Mrs. Eleanor Roosevelt, and students performing their own historical scenarios. (CMK)

Historical Consciousness in Youth. Theoretical and Exemplary Empirical Analyses

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Carlos Kölbl

2001-09-01

Full Text Available The thesis that historical consciousness is an anthropological competence and category is called into question. A concept of modern historical consciousness is outlined which from then on serves as a working concept. This kind of historical consciousness, it is argued, is not a universal anthropological fact, but a result of the development of occidental cultures and societies. Long since a great number of groups and individuals have been deeply affected by this development in which the establishment of a scientific world view and methodical thinking played a major role. Their historical consciousness is modern since it refers to a radically temporalized and dynamic world and since it ties partial representations of this world to (implicit criteria of validity. Moreover it is closely connected with the possibility of self-critical reflections which are grounded in the historically mediated encounter with strangers. After a concise overview of the important questions and the state of the art in different disciplines, selected results of a broader qualitative-empirical study are presented. In the group discussions which were carried out with young people—only results from a discussion with thirteen to fourteen year old grammar-school pupils (Gymnasiasten are presented here—the analysis revealed clear indicators of a specifically modern historical consciousness. Looked at closely this consciousness is committed in a surprisingly high degree to scientific-methodical standards of rationality. One may welcome this as a successful implementation of a life form oriented towards rationality into young people's everyday life or deplore it as a symptom of the distortion of pragmatic orientations for activity and living by scientific standards: first of all it is a fact that the commitment to tie the reconstruction of past realities, historical events and contexts to an operation of knowledge which is intersubjectively transparent and rationally

Radium in consumer products: an historical perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holm, W.M.

1978-01-01

This paper demonstrates in historical and technical perspective how radium began to be used in consumer products and how changing conditions in technology and regulations have greatly modified the use of radium. In addition, the various uses of radium that have been tried or have been used in consumer products have been described, and whenever possible, the historical perspective has been used to show when devices were needed and when changing conditions caused the products to be no longer required. The historical perspective attitude is again used in the evaluation of the risks and benefits of radium in comparison to radium substitutes

Keeping the History in Historical Seismology: The 1872 Owens Valley, California Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hough, Susan E.

2008-01-01

The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude

Commentary. The diseases of Alexander the Great.

Science.gov (United States)

York, George K; Steinberg, David A

2004-06-01

The accompanying articles that speculate that Alexander the Great had a traumatic carotid dissection or congenital cervical scoliosis demonstrate the difficulties in retrospective diagnosis as a historical enterprise. The extant primary sources were written centuries after Alexander's death and are ambiguous in their original languages, and even more so in translation. Thus we cannot be certain what illness Alexander actually had. Furthermore, anachronistic diagnosis removes Alexander from the medical context of this time, telling us little of historical significance about him. Such investigations also illustrate the more general limits that the absence of context imposes on the study of ancient history.

Crowdfunding for the co-financing of projects to enhance complexes of great historical and architectural value: the case of Torino Esposizioni - pdf

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Paola Marinò

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the financing required to restore and reuse the great architecture of the 1900s, in a time in history when public financial resources are becoming increasingly low and difficult to find. The research addresses the possibility of using crowdfunding through the case study of the reuse project of Torino Esposizioni, an architectural work from the '900, partially used, in a state of decay, despite being recognized by international critics as a work of exceptional value. After the Master Plan had been developed by the Turin Polytechnic in collaboration with the City of Turin, the applicability of crowdfunding was analyzed by a survey to evaluate the willingness of the potential users to contribute to the Torino Esposizioni reuse project. In addition to this, the interest of citizens in the historical value of the Torino Esposizioni and the reuse project that would enhance it has been understood. The survey results have highlighted unexpected unwillingness to contribute to the collective funding of the project. Furthermore, they have revealed not only the lack of knowledge of crowdfunding as a means of financing, but also the lack of awareness of the value of Turin’s historical and modern architectural heritage, of which Torino Esposizioni is an outstanding example, although not the only one.

Albert Einstein and Wernher von Braun - the two great German-American physicists seen in a historical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Winterberg, Friedwardt

2008-04-01

It was Albert Einstein who for the first time changed our view of the universe to be a non-euclidean curved space-time. And it was Wernher von Braun who blazed the trail to take us into this universe, leaving for the first time the gravitational field of our planet earth, with the landing a man on the moon the greatest event in human history. Both these great physicists did this on the shoulders of giants. Albert Einstein on the shoulders of his landsman, the mathematician Bernhard Riemann, and Wernher von Braun on the shoulders of Goddard and Oberth. Both Einstein and von Braun made a Faustian pact with the devil, von Braun by accepting research funds from Hitler, and Einstein by urging Roosvelt to build the atom bomb (against Hitler). Both of these great men later regretted the use of their work for the killing of innocent bystanders, even though in the end the invention of nuclear energy and space flight is for the benefit of man. Their example serves as a warning for all of us. It can be formulated as follows: ``Can I in good conscience accept research funds from the military to advance scientific knowledge, for weapons developed against an abstract enemy I never have met in person?'' Weapons if used do not differentiate between the scientist, who invented these weapons, and the non-scientist.

Great Blunders?: The Great Wall of China, the Berlin Wall, and the Proposed United States/Mexico Border Fence

Science.gov (United States)

Langerbein, Helmut

2009-01-01

This article presents an analysis of the Great Wall of China and the Berlin Wall which reveals that both grew from unique political, historical, geographical, cultural, and economic circumstances. The purpose of this article is to provide new arguments for a debate that all too often has been waged with emotions, polemics, and misinformation. The…

Hermeneutics and the Historicity of Human Understanding

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Gholamreza Jamshidnia

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Whether objectivity in the understanding of history is achivable? Putting  in another way, whether it is possible to account a historical event purely objectively, and free of one's own values, attitudes, and interests? Whether it is possible to have a "complete history'' and a complete explanation of any historical matter? If it is not possible, then it necessarily leads to a relativistic approach which finds any historical narrative acceptable? Are there any criteria according to which one could compare truthfulness of various historical narratives? The present study approach these questions hermeneutically. However, not all hermeneutical approaches answer them alike. Denying the relativist approach, this study attempts to analyze historicity of the human understanding and that of the interpreter him/herself.

PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez Cobo, A.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events, including the following: historical background, procedures for event evaluation using PSA, use of PSA for event rating, current activities

Historical review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamora C, H.H.

1989-01-01

Short history of the ''Instituto de Asuntos Nucleares''. A short historical review about IAN is made: from 1956 when it was called Instituto Colombiano de Asuntos Nucleares, showing its scientific and technical development and the most important events that have occurred in the last 30 years. The people who had contributed to the progress of the institution are also considered, making emphasis in the important happenings that have guided the routes of the IAN

Historical “gothic” novel in the context of English preromantic literature

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Grigorieva Elena Valentinovna

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the development of the Gothic historical novel in English literature of the last third of the XVIII century. Initial installation on a stylized medieval romance, and attempts to reconstruct historical color associated with the overall objective aesthetic and artistic development of the Middle Ages (“The Castle of Otranto” Mr. Walpole, 1764 is replaced by the rejection of the historical and geographical exoticism and transferring activities in a much closer historical Age (K. Reeve “Old English Baron”, 1777. Image of real historical figures and famous historical events was a major literary discovery of the historic Gothic novel (S.Li “Refuge, or Tale of other times”, 1785, is preceded in this regard in the work by W. Scott. The next conquest of Gothic historical novel was the desire to enter the historical events in a common “historiosophical” story, reflecting the unbreakable laws of nature (C. Reeve, “Memoirs of Roger de Clarendon,” 1793. A similar trend is a characteristic of educational tradition, and yet, the historic Gothic novel, opens the way to a romantic historical novel, with its nostalgia for bygone times, tragic conflicts, an ideal hero, carried along by fate historic flow. Formation of the genre is analyzed in the context of socio-political and literary-aesthetic discussions era.

Empirical assessment of effects of urbanization on event flow hydrology in watersheds of Canada's Great Lakes-St Lawrence basin

Science.gov (United States)

Trudeau, M. P.; Richardson, Murray

2016-10-01

We conducted an empirical hydrological analysis of high-temporal resolution streamflow records for 27 watersheds within 11 river systems in the Greater Toronto Region of the Canadian Great Lakes basin. Our objectives were to model the event-scale flow response of watersheds to urbanization and to test for scale and threshold effects. Watershed areas ranged from 37.5 km2 to 806 km2 and urban percent land cover ranged from less than 0.1-87.6%. Flow records had a resolution of 15-min increments and were available over a 42-year period, allowing for detailed assessment of changes in event-scale flow response with increasing urban land use during the post-freshet period (May 26 to November 15). Empirical statistical models were developed for flow characteristics including total runoff, runoff coefficient, eightieth and ninety-fifth percentile rising limb event runoff and mean rising limb event acceleration. Changes in some of these runoff metrics began at very low urban land use (acceleration increased with increasing urban cover, thus causing 80th percentile runoff depths to be reached sooner. These results indicate the potential for compromised water balance when cumulative changes are considered at the watershed scale. No abrupt or threshold changes in hydrologic characteristics were identified along the urban land use gradient. A positive interaction of urban percent land use and watershed size indicated a scale effect on total runoff. Overall, the results document compromised hydrologic stability attributable to urbanization during a period with no detectable change in rainfall patterns. They also corroborate literature recommendations for spatially distributed low impact urban development techniques; measures would be needed throughout the urbanized area of a watershed to dampen event-scale hydrologic responses to urbanization. Additional research is warranted into event-scale hydrologic trends with urbanization in other regions, in particular rising limb event

Historical and Paleo Events as an input for Seismic And Associated Natural Hazard Assessment of Javakheti highland (South Georgia)

Science.gov (United States)

Elashvili, M.; Javakhishvili, Z.; Godoladze, T.; Karakhanyan, A.; Sukhishvili, L.; Nikolaeva, E.; Sokhadze, G.; Avanesyan, M.

2012-12-01

of historical earthquakes of 1899 and 1089, as well as Archaeo-Seismological site along the Javakheti seismic fault will be presented. History on Natural Disasters in the region can be complemented by Bertakana Paleo-Landslide, to be discussed separately as one of the mega events in the Area. The mentioned events are considered as an important input for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Javakheti Region.

Beliefs about history, the meaning of historical events and culture of war

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Magdalena Bobowik

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines beliefs concerning the content of history, the meaning of Second World War (WWII and the evaluation of historical events in relation to pro-war attitudes. Participants were 1183 university students from Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Brazil, Peru and Cape Verde. Four supra-level dimensions in the representations of the past were found: History as progress and leaders-oriented, history as focused on justifying calamities, history as violence and catastrophe, and history as meaningless. The prevalent positive beliefs about history were linked with enthusiasm to fight in a future war for one’s country.---Se estudiaron las creencias sobre el contenido de la historia, el significado de la Segunda Guerra Mundial y la evaluación de eventos históricos en relación con una actitud favorable a la guerra. Los participantes fueron 1183 estudiantes universitarios de España, Portugal, Argentina, Brasil, Perú y Cabo Verde. Se encontraron cuatro grandes dimensiones en las representaciones sobre el pasado: la historia como proceso de progreso y dirigida por líderes; la historia compuesta por calamidades que se deben aceptar; la historia como violencia y catástrofes; y, la historia como carente de sentido. La prevalente visión positiva de la historia se asoció a una actitud favorable a luchar en una nueva guerra.

Teaching Economics Using Historical Novels: Jonathan Harr's "The Lost Painting"

Science.gov (United States)

Cotti, Chad; Johnson, Marianne

2012-01-01

Undergraduate students are often interested in and benefit greatly from applications of economic principles. Historical novels drawn from real-world situations can engage students with economic concepts in new ways and provide a useful tool to help enhance instruction. In this article, the authors discuss the use of historical novels generally in…

Modifikace, změna, událost: Badiou a ontologie historicity

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Růžička, Jiří

2016-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 1 (2016), s. 121-153 ISSN 1214-7249 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : Alain Badiou * philosophy of history * historicity * event * historical materialism Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

Categorising Resources of Historical Memory in Researching Publicistic Text

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Konyk Anastasiya

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on the allocation and analysis of the main resources of historical memory which are considered as peculiar indicators for studying publicist content and conceptual reading of discourses of historical memory in contemporary publications. It is relevant insofar as researching the use and intensification of these or other resources of historical memory allows us to observe changes in world landmarks, socio-political moods, ideological references and temperament and the dynamics of re-interpretation of historical facts and events by authors.

Description of veterinary events and risk factors for fatality in National Hunt flat racing Thoroughbreds in Great Britain (2000-2013).

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, S E; Rosanowski, S M; Stirk, A J; Verheyen, K L P

2017-11-01

No large-scale studies have described veterinary events occurring in National Hunt (NH) flat racing or investigated risk factors for fatality in this race type. To describe injuries and conditions requiring veterinary attendance on race day and to determine risk factors for racehorse fatality in NH flat racing in Great Britain. Retrospective cohort study (2000-2013). Information from all NH flat races held over the study period, including horse, race and veterinary event report details, was combined. Veterinary events were described by type and anatomical structure(s) affected. Incidence per 1000 starts were calculated for all veterinary events and by event group, and stratified by certain horse- and race-level variables. Risk factors for fatality were determined using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Over the 14-year study period, 544 veterinary events were recorded, providing an overall incidence of 13.0 events per 1000 starts. The most common events were bone injuries (23.5%) and tendon or ligament injuries (16.4%). A fatal outcome was recorded for 117 horses (21.5% of all events), resulting in an incidence of 2.9 deaths per 1000 starts. Odds of fatality were 4.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59-11.82; P = 0.02) times higher in races restricted to conditional jockeys compared to those that were not. Horses starting in their first race experienced 1.44 (95% CI 1.00-2.08; P = 0.05) times the odds of death compared to those that had raced before. Classification of veterinary events frequently relied upon presumptive diagnosis. This study provides a benchmark for the ongoing surveillance of veterinary events in NH flat racing. These results support the phasing out of NH flat races restricted to conditional jockeys and highlight the need for further work to establish why NH flat racing Thoroughbreds competing in their first race are at increased risk for death. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

A method to add richness to the National Landslide Database of Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Faith; Freeborough, Katy; Malamud, Bruce; Demeritt, David

2014-05-01

Landslides in Great Britain (GB) pose a risk to infrastructure, property and livelihoods. Our understanding of where landslide hazard and impact will be greatest is based on our knowledge of past events. Here, we present a method to supplement existing records of landslides in GB by searching electronic archives of local and regional newspapers. In Great Britain, the British Geological Survey (BGS) are responsible for updating and maintaining records of GB landslide events and their impacts in the National Landslide Database (NLD). The NLD contains records of approximately 16,500 landslide events in Great Britain. Data sources for the NLD include field surveys, academic articles, grey literature, news, public reports and, since 2012, social media. Here we aim to supplement the richness of the NLD by (i) identifying additional landslide events and (ii) adding more detail to existing database entries. This is done by systematically searching the LexisNexis digital archive of 568 local and regional newspapers published in the UK. The first step in the methodology was to construct Boolean search criteria that optimised the balance between minimising the number of irrelevant articles (e.g. "a landslide victory") and maximising those referring to landslide events. This keyword search was then applied to the LexisNexis archive of newspapers for all articles published between 1 January and 31 December 2012, resulting in 1,668 articles. These articles were assessed to determine whether they related to a landslide event. Of the 1,668 articles, approximately 30% (~700) referred to landslide events, with others referring to landslides more generally or themes unrelated to landslides. Examples of information obtained from newspaper articles included: date/time of landslide occurrence, spatial location, size, impact, landslide type and triggering mechanism, although the amount of detail and precision attainable from individual articles was variable. Of the 700 articles found for

Great Importance Attached to Intangible Cultural Heritage

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

@@ Intangible Cultural Heritage on Verge of Extinction? With the acceleration of globalization and modernization, dramatic changes have taken place in China's cultural ecology: intangible cultural heritage is confronted with great challenges and a lot of orally and behaviorally transmitted cultural heritage disappear one after another; a great deal of traditional craftsmanship is on the verge of extinction; a large number of precious objects and materials of historical and cultural values are destroyed,deserted or lost in foreign countries; arbitrary misuse and excessive exploitation of intangible cultural heritage occur from time to time. Therefore, the protection of intangible cultural heritage brooks no delay.

CENTENARY OF 1917 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION IN THE FOCUS OF ANTI-RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PROPAGANDA

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Вардан Эрнестович Багдасарян

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the anti-Russian historical narrative focused on the 1917 events. The relevance of the theme is determined bythe wide-ranging discussion on the Russian revolution due toits anniversary. The authors solve the problem of the scientific criticism of the anti-Russian myths, focused on the assessments and interpretations of the two Russian revolutions of 1917. In the article there are shown the ideological basis and political context of the coverage of the events of 1917. The authors analyze 5 historical ideologemes, which are disseminated in the public consciousness. They also show the cognitive and political implications of adopting the respective ideology. As a typical liberal myth, the authors regard the interpretation of the October Revolution as “stolen freedom” provided by the February revolution. In the article there is shown that through the myth of “stolen freedom” the whole history of Russia is presented as a reproduction of the “totalitarian regime”. The authors prove the incorrectness of showing Bolsheviks as the initiators of the use of mass terror tactics, to which all major opposing forces resorted. There is considered the connection of the interpretation of the Revolution as the manifestation of the “Russian rebellion” with the Russophobic myth of the Russian barbarism. The authors criticize the idea of the Bolshevik imperialism, which is allegedly based on the ideology of world revolution. The article gives the deconstruction of the myth of the Bolshevik regime illegitimacy and shows the cognitive contradictions of the attempts to counter the concepts of “October Revolution” and “October Coup”. The authors reveal that the thesis of the Constituent Assembly, as an illustration of the Bolshevik illegitimacy, doesn’t correspondent to the historical facts. The authors conclude that the issues of covering the events of both the Revolutionand the Great Patriotic War are linked to the national

Governmentality as a Genealogical Toolbox in Historical Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Janicke

2014-01-01

The aim of this article is to show how governmentality may be used to analyze historical events and discourses, and how this historical analysis can be used as a perspective to problematize contemporary discourses. The example used in this article is from my research on life-extension handbooks published in Sweden 1700-1930, and by this I stress…

Historical empathy in a museum : Uniting contextualisation and emotional engagement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Savenije, G.M.; de Bruijn, P.

2017-01-01

Museums, memorial centres and other heritage institutions use various strategies to evoke an emotional response that serves to elicit empathy with the historical events and actors that are portrayed in exhibitions. To increase historical understanding, however, both emotional engagement with and

Post-traumatic stress reactions before the advent of post-traumatic stress disorder: potential effects on the lives and legacies of Alexander the Great, Captain James Cook, Emily Dickinson, and Florence Nightingale.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackowiak, Philip A; Batten, Sonja V

2008-12-01

Evidence is presented that Alexander the Great, Captain James Cook, Emily Dickinson, and Florence Nightingale each developed symptoms consistent with post-traumatic stress disorder in the aftermath of repeated potentially traumatizing events of differing character. Their case histories also varied with respect to background, premorbid personality style, risk factors, clinical presentation, and course of the illness, illustrating the pleomorphic character of the disorder, as well as the special problems in diagnosing it in historical figures.

Status of the amphipod Diporeia ssp. in coastal waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Diporeia has historically been the dominant benthic macroinvertebrate in deeper waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes, and its abundance has been proposed as an indicator of ecological condition. In 2010, the USEPA incorporated the Great Lakes into the National Coastal Condition A...

"Most brilliant in judgment": Alexander the Great and Aristotle.

Science.gov (United States)

Lainas, Panagiotis; Panutsopulos, Dimitrios; Skandalakis, Panagiotis N; Zoras, Odysseas; Skandalakis, John E

2005-03-01

From historical sources, it is evident that Alexander the Great was indebted to one of his teachers, Aristotle of Stagira. It was the teaching of Aristotle that evoked all the nascent talents of young Alexander and turned him into a great man. Alexander was extremely interested in the secrets of medicine and considered it an art. The medical knowledge he acquired from Aristotle may have saved his life and the lives of his troops on many occasions. If Alexander did not possess medical knowledge and if his everyday life had not been so greatly influenced by medicine, he might never have been able to create his empire.

Enriching Great Britain's National Landslide Database by searching newspaper archives

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Faith E.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Freeborough, Katy; Demeritt, David

2015-11-01

Our understanding of where landslide hazard and impact will be greatest is largely based on our knowledge of past events. Here, we present a method to supplement existing records of landslides in Great Britain by searching an electronic archive of regional newspapers. In Great Britain, the British Geological Survey (BGS) is responsible for updating and maintaining records of landslide events and their impacts in the National Landslide Database (NLD). The NLD contains records of more than 16,500 landslide events in Great Britain. Data sources for the NLD include field surveys, academic articles, grey literature, news, public reports and, since 2012, social media. We aim to supplement the richness of the NLD by (i) identifying additional landslide events, (ii) acting as an additional source of confirmation of events existing in the NLD and (iii) adding more detail to existing database entries. This is done by systematically searching the Nexis UK digital archive of 568 regional newspapers published in the UK. In this paper, we construct a robust Boolean search criterion by experimenting with landslide terminology for four training periods. We then apply this search to all articles published in 2006 and 2012. This resulted in the addition of 111 records of landslide events to the NLD over the 2 years investigated (2006 and 2012). We also find that we were able to obtain information about landslide impact for 60-90% of landslide events identified from newspaper articles. Spatial and temporal patterns of additional landslides identified from newspaper articles are broadly in line with those existing in the NLD, confirming that the NLD is a representative sample of landsliding in Great Britain. This method could now be applied to more time periods and/or other hazards to add richness to databases and thus improve our ability to forecast future events based on records of past events.

Evidence for oxygenic photosynthesis half a billion years before the Great Oxidation Event

Science.gov (United States)

Planavsky, Noah J.; Asael, Dan; Hofmann, Axel; Reinhard, Christopher T.; Lalonde, Stefan V.; Knudsen, Andrew; Wang, Xiangli; Ossa Ossa, Frantz; Pecoits, Ernesto; Smith, Albertus J. B.; Beukes, Nicolas J.; Bekker, Andrey; Johnson, Thomas M.; Konhauser, Kurt O.; Lyons, Timothy W.; Rouxel, Olivier J.

2014-04-01

The early Earth was characterized by the absence of oxygen in the ocean-atmosphere system, in contrast to the well-oxygenated conditions that prevail today. Atmospheric concentrations first rose to appreciable levels during the Great Oxidation Event, roughly 2.5-2.3 Gyr ago. The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis is generally accepted to have been the ultimate cause of this rise, but it has proved difficult to constrain the timing of this evolutionary innovation. The oxidation of manganese in the water column requires substantial free oxygen concentrations, and thus any indication that Mn oxides were present in ancient environments would imply that oxygenic photosynthesis was ongoing. Mn oxides are not commonly preserved in ancient rocks, but there is a large fractionation of molybdenum isotopes associated with the sorption of Mo onto the Mn oxides that would be retained. Here we report Mo isotopes from rocks of the Sinqeni Formation, Pongola Supergroup, South Africa. These rocks formed no less than 2.95 Gyr ago in a nearshore setting. The Mo isotopic signature is consistent with interaction with Mn oxides. We therefore infer that oxygen produced through oxygenic photosynthesis began to accumulate in shallow marine settings at least half a billion years before the accumulation of significant levels of atmospheric oxygen.

The Study of Bakhtin's Carnivalism in Christopher Marlowe's Tamburlaine The Great

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Maryam Navidi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In re-visioning history, the dramatists from around the world look at the historical figures on their own ways, not as it is. However, they exert a unique way of recounting the past. That is why the historical characters such as Tamburlaine appears in Marlowe's Tamburlaine The Great, but in Marlowian view. Uunveiling what Marlowe has created and the original facts in history are expounded better in the light of Bakhtin's Carnivalism. It is a method to sub-alter what has been regarded as the norm. It has provided the second world that continues to exist beside the actual one. Marlowe's work has also tried to alter the historical facts and figures in Carnivalistique ways, in order to attract his contemporary people. Concomitantly, he's degraded the different religions. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the different aspects of Tamburlaine The Great, in order to indicate how this play has made a means to manifest the social conditions of Elizabethan era in Carnivalistique ways.

The Cultural Heritage of the Great Prespa Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ema Muslli

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The Great Prespa region is situated in the Balkan Peninsula and is divided between Albania, Macedonia and Greece. It includes the Great Prespa Lake and the surrounding beach and meadow, areas designated for agricultural use and the towns of Pusteci (formerly known as Liqenas and Resen. This region is now part of the Trans-Boundary Biosphere Reserve ‘Ohrid-Prespa Watershed. Great and Small Prespa lakes plus Ohrid Lake are included in this newly-approved UNESCO world Heritage Site, but for this paper, we are looking only at the area surrounding the Great Prespa Lake. It is critical for this area to be protected immediately, because of the overuse it has undergone in recent years. While current levels of fauna are dangerously declining due to recent over-harvesting, this area has been known historically for its diverse natural and cultural features. Thus it is important to take drastic measures to reclaim the natural beauty immediately, including those areas currently covered by Prespa National Parks in Albania and Greece and Galichica and Pelisteri National Parks in Macedonia. Due to many wars over the centuries, it exists a mixture of Albanian and Macedonian culture. The historical and architectural remaining, religious structures and artifacts testify the richness and uniqueness of the communities of Pustec and Resen have. The cultural heritage is now a key element designated for the development of the region’s sustainable tourism development. This study was enhanced via the Geographic Info System (GIS digital presentation showing the opportunities for natural and cultural tourism in both countries (Albania and Macedonia.

76 FR 70483 - Environmental Impact Statement and General Management Plan, Paterson Great Falls National...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-14

... planning process and will remain actively involved throughout the development of the plan. Prepared by... the long-term management of Paterson Great Falls NHP early in the process through public meetings and... Impact Statement and General Management Plan, Paterson Great Falls National Historical Park, NJ AGENCY...

Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes A Historical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, David K.

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective'' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still

To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

2008-01-01

In urban drainage modeling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO...... gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity...

To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

2009-01-01

In urban drainage modelling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO...... gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity...

Great landslide events in Italian artificial reservoirs

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A. Panizzo

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The empirical formulations to forecast landslide generated water waves, recently defined in the framework of a research program funded by the Italian National Dam Office RID (Registro Italiano Dighe, are here used to study three real cases of subaerial landslides which fell down italian artificial reservoirs. It is well known that impulse water waves generated by landslides constitute a very dangerous menace for human communities living in the shoreline of the artificial basin or downstream the dam. In 1963, the menace became tragedy, when a 270 millions m3 landslide fell down the Vajont reservoir (Italy, generated an impulse wave which destroyed the city of Longarone, and killed 2000 people. The paper is aimed at presenting the very satisfactorily reproduction of the events at hand by using forecasting formulations.  

Great landslide events in Italian artificial reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Panizzo, A.; de Girolamo, P.; di Risio, M.; Maistri, A.; Petaccia, A.

2005-09-01

The empirical formulations to forecast landslide generated water waves, recently defined in the framework of a research program funded by the Italian National Dam Office RID (Registro Italiano Dighe), are here used to study three real cases of subaerial landslides which fell down italian artificial reservoirs. It is well known that impulse water waves generated by landslides constitute a very dangerous menace for human communities living in the shoreline of the artificial basin or downstream the dam. In 1963, the menace became tragedy, when a 270 millions m3 landslide fell down the Vajont reservoir (Italy), generated an impulse wave which destroyed the city of Longarone, and killed 2000 people. The paper is aimed at presenting the very satisfactorily reproduction of the events at hand by using forecasting formulations.

The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge

Science.gov (United States)

Frau, Roberto; Andreewsky, Marc; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-03-01

The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 103 years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting regional data into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of credible duration. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept.

FEH Local: Improving flood estimates using historical data

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Prosdocimi Ilaria

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The traditional approach to design flood estimation (for example, to derive the 100-year flood is to apply a statistical model to time series of peak river flow measured by gauging stations. Such records are typically not very long, for example in the UK only about 10% of the stations have records that are more than 50 years in length. Along-explored way to augment the data available from a gauging station is to derive information about historical flood events and paleo-floods, which can be obtained from careful exploration of archives, old newspapers, flood marks or other signs of past flooding that are still discernible in the catchment, and the history of settlements. The inclusion of historical data in flood frequency estimation has been shown to substantially reduce the uncertainty around the estimated design events and is likely to provide insight into the rarest events which might have pre-dated the relatively short systematic records. Among other things, the FEH Local project funded by the Environment Agency aims to develop methods to easily incorporate historical information into the standard method of statistical flood frequency estimation in the UK. Different statistical estimation procedures are explored, namely maximum likelihood and partial probability weighted moments, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are investigated. The project assesses the usefulness of historical data and aims to provide practitioners with useful guidelines to indicate in what circumstances the inclusion of historical data is likely to be beneficial in terms of reducing both the bias and the variability of the estimated flood frequency curves. The guidelines are based on the results of a large Monte Carlo simulation study, in which different estimation procedures and different data availability scenarios are studied. The study provides some indication of the situations under which different estimation procedures might give a better performance.

Middle to Late Ordovician faunal studies from central Australia and Tasmania during the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Kristian Grube

A profound transformation of the marine biosphere took place during the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), recognized as the longest interval of sustained biodiversification in the history of life. Successions through the Middle Ordovician Stairway Sandstone of the Amadeus Basin......, but the diversity is generally relatively low. The bivalves are the most dominant and diverse group in the central Australian fauna, whereas the brachiopods are the most dominant and diverse group in the Tasmanian fauna. Thirteen trilobite, five brachiopod, four conodont and 22 mollusc taxa have been documented......, but the preservation and low number of specimens prevent formal definition of additional new taxa. Although highly endemic at species level, the investigated brachiopod, trilobite and mollusc faunas display a high degree of overall similarity at generic level with Middle Ordovician faunas from North China. Other...

The human impact of tsunamis: a historical review of events 1900-2009 and systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D

2013-04-16

Introduction. Although rare, tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable loss of life and injury as well as widespread damage to the natural and built environments. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of tsunamis on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of tsunamis were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1900 to mid 2009 of tsunami events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review to October 2012 of publications. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between tsunami mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were 255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries (range 45,466-51,457) as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. The majority of deaths (89%) and injuries reported during this time period were attributed to a single event -the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Findings from the systematic literature review indicate that the primary cause of tsunami-related mortality is drowning, and that females, children and the elderly are at increased mortality risk. The few studies that reported on tsunami-related injury suggest that males and young adults are at increased injury-risk. Conclusions. Early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related loss of life.

The historical seismicity in Spain. Analysis. Incidence over the nuclear sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Marinas, J.M.

1985-01-01

The lack of good instrumental registers till very recently and the great documental richness existing in Spain emphasize the importance of the historical seismicity. In the present report, the Spanish catalogues of earthquakes and the necessity of their revision are analyzed showing several examples. Finally the incidence of a historical seismicity datum over a nuclear site is discussed. (author)

Evolution of multicellularity coincided with increased diversification of cyanobacteria and the Great Oxidation Event

Science.gov (United States)

Schirrmeister, Bettina E.; de Vos, Jurriaan M.; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bagheri, Homayoun C.

2013-01-01

Cyanobacteria are among the most diverse prokaryotic phyla, with morphotypes ranging from unicellular to multicellular filamentous forms, including those able to terminally (i.e., irreversibly) differentiate in form and function. It has been suggested that cyanobacteria raised oxygen levels in the atmosphere around 2.45–2.32 billion y ago during the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), hence dramatically changing life on the planet. However, little is known about the temporal evolution of cyanobacterial lineages, and possible interplay between the origin of multicellularity, diversification of cyanobacteria, and the rise of atmospheric oxygen. We estimated divergence times of extant cyanobacterial lineages under Bayesian relaxed clocks for a dataset of 16S rRNA sequences representing the entire known diversity of this phylum. We tested whether the evolution of multicellularity overlaps with the GOE, and whether multicellularity is associated with significant shifts in diversification rates in cyanobacteria. Our results indicate an origin of cyanobacteria before the rise of atmospheric oxygen. The evolution of multicellular forms coincides with the onset of the GOE and an increase in diversification rates. These results suggest that multicellularity could have played a key role in triggering cyanobacterial evolution around the GOE. PMID:23319632

Land Use Effects on Net Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in the US Great Plains: Historical Trends and Model Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Del Grosso, S. J.; Parton, W. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Mosier, A. R.; Mosier, A. R.; Paustian, K.; Peterson, G. A.

2001-12-01

We present maps showing regional patterns of land use change and soil C levels in the US Great Plains during the 20th century and time series of net greenhouse gas fluxes associated with different land uses. Net greenhouse gas fluxes were calculated by accounting for soil CO2 fluxes, the CO2 equivalents of N2O emissions and CH4 uptake, and the CO2 costs of N fertilizer production. Both historical and modern agriculture in this region have been net sources of greenhouse gases. The primary reason for this, prior to 1950, is that agriculture mined soil C and resulted in net CO2 emissions. When chemical N fertilizer became widely used in the 1950's agricultural soils began to sequester CO2-C but these soils were still net greenhouse gas sources if the effects of increased N2O emissions and decreased CH4 uptake are included. The sensitivity of net greenhouse gas fluxes to conventional and alternative land uses was explored using the DAYCENT ecosystem model. Model projections suggest that conversion to no-till, reduction of the fallow period, and use of nitrification inhibitors can significantly decrease net greenhouse gas emissions in dryland and irrigated systems, while maintaining or increasing crop yields.

Tropical shoreline ice in the late Cambrian: Implications for earth's climate between the Cambrian Explosion and the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event

Science.gov (United States)

Runkel, Anthony C.; MacKey, T.J.; Cowan, Clinton A.; Fox, David L.

2010-01-01

Middle to late Cambrian time (ca. 513 to 488 Ma) is characterized by an unstable plateau in biodiversity, when depauperate shelf faunas suffered repeated extinctions. This poorly understood interval separates the Cambrian Explosion from the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event and is generally regarded as a time of sustained greenhouse conditions. We present evidence that suggests a drastically different climate during this enigmatic interval: Features indicative of meteoric ice are well preserved in late Cambrian equatorial beach deposits that correspond to one of the shelf extinction events. Thus, the middle to late Cambrian Earth was at least episodically cold and might best be considered a muted analogue to the environmental extremes that characterized the Proterozoic, even though cooling in the two periods may have occurred in response to different triggers. Such later Cambrian conditions may have significantly impacted evolution preceding the Ordovician radiation.

It’s About Valence: Historical Continuity or Historical Discontinuity as a Threat to Social Identity

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Jenny Roth

2017-08-01

Full Text Available National identity is underpinned by historical representations. Recent research shows that narratives presenting an in-group’s history as discontinuous rather than continuous raise collective angst, suggesting that historical discontinuity threatens social identity. This previous research has focused on positive aspects of an in-group’s past. The present research aims to extend the findings to go beyond positive histories. We suggest that when the in-group’s actions in the past are presented as negative, historical continuity instead of discontinuity will increase perceived identity threat because a negative, continuous history threatens group members’ need for a positive social identity in the present. In an experiment with a sample size of N = 316, we manipulated the narrated valence of in-group actions during the historical event of the approval of the German constitutional law by framing the group’s actions in either positive or negative terms. In addition, we presented the in-group’s history as connected or disconnected to the in-group’s present. Results demonstrate that historical continuity only decreased identity threat compared to historical discontinuity when the in-group’s past behavior was presented as positive. When the in-group’s past was presented as negative, continuity even increased identity threat compared to historical discontinuity. These results were particularly pronounced for people who strongly identified with their national in-group. We discuss implications of the findings for political communication and managing a nation’s perception of social identity threat.

Assessment of the Great Lakes Marine Renewable Energy Resources: Characterizing Lake Erie Surge, Seiche and Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Farhadzadeh, A.; Hashemi, M. R.

2016-02-01

Lake Erie, the fourth largest in surface area, smallest in volume and shallowest among the Great Lakes is approximately 400 km long and 90 km wide. Short term lake level variations are due to storm surge generated by high winds and moving pressure systems over the lake mainly in the southwest-northeast direction, along the lakes longitudinal axis. The historical wave data from three active offshore buoys shows that significant wave height can exceed 5 m in the eastern and central basins. The long-term lake level data show that storm surge can reach up to 3 m in eastern Lake Erie. Owing its shallow depth, Lake Erie frequently experiences seiching motions, the low frequency oscillations that are initiated by storm surge. The seiches whose first mode of oscillations has a period of nearly 14.2 hours can last from several hours to days. In this study, the Lake Erie potential for power generation, primarily using storm surge and seiche and also waves are assessed. Given the cyclic lake level variations due to storm-induced seiching, a concept similar to that of tidal range development is utilized to assess the potential of storm surge and seiche energy harvesting mechanisms for power generation. In addition, wave energy resources of the Lake is characterized -. To achieve these objectives, the following steps are taken : (1) Frequency of occurrence for extreme storm surge and wave events is determined using extreme value analysis such as Peak-Over-Threshold method for the long-term water level and wave data; (2) Spatial and temporal variations of wave height, storm surge and seiche are characterized. The characterization is carried out using the wave and storm surge outputs from numerical simulation of a number of historical extreme events. The coupled ADCIRC and SWAN model is utilized for the modeling; (3) Assessment of the potentials for marine renewable power generation in Lake Erie is made. The approach can be extended to the other lakes in the Great Lakes region.

Alternative model for the Great Oxidation Event

Science.gov (United States)

Bekker, A.

2014-12-01

Transition from the Archean, largely anoxic atmosphere and ocean to the Proterozoic oxidizing surface conditions has been inferred in Zimbabwe from the geochemical and geological evidence as early as 1927. Subsequent studies provided additional support for this interpretation, bracketed the transition between 2.45 and 2.32 Ga, and suggested temporal and cause-and-effect relationship with a series of the early Paleoproterozoic ice ages (including 4 discrete events). Recently recognized transient oxidation events of the Archean add texture to this pattern, but do not change it. The rise of atmospheric oxygen requires a misbalance between oxygen sinks and sources and most attention was focused on sinks. In contrast, change in oxygen supply related to low organic productivity in Archean oceans with limited nutrient contents are considered here. Although carbon isotope values of carbonates and organic carbon indicate substantial relative burial rate of organic carbon during the Archean, most of the earlier buried organic matter at that time was recycled to sediments during continental weathering, implying very low productivity and burial of 'new' organic carbon. Low contents of redox-sensitive elements, such as Mo, Cu, Zn, and V, in Archean seawater could have kept organic productivity and oxygen production at low levels. The GOE was immediately preceded by deposition of giant iron formations, accounting for more than 70% of world iron resources, and worldwide emplacement of a number of LIPs between 2.5 and 2.45 Ga, indicating enhanced delivery of nutrients and redox-sensitive elements to the oceans via submarine hydrothermal processes and continental weathering under CO2- and SO2-rich atmosphere and associated terrestrial acidic runoff. This enhanced emplacement of LIPs has been linked with the growth of continental crust, emergence of the first supercontinent, and mantle overturn at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary. The GOE could have thus been triggered by enhanced

Marea guvernare liberală: independenţa României şi proclamarea Regatului (The Great Liberal Government: the Romanian Independence and the Monarchy

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Dan CARBARĂU

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The study below is putting together, in a historical view, important events for the Romanian history. Brief, the research is related to the period between 1876 and 1888, also called by historians “The Great liberal government”, when the national ideals were made real. The study tells about the State Independence (1877, the Constitution revision (1879 and finally, the transition to monarchy (1881. By putting together, the study shares how the National Liberal Party and its past leaders were able to put above the party interests and national interests, leaving the individualism behind.

Alexander the Great's relationship with alcohol.

Science.gov (United States)

Liappas, J A; Lascaratos, J; Fafouti, S; Christodoulou, G N

2003-05-01

This study sought to clarify if Alexander the Great indulged pathologically in alcohol and whether it contributed to his death. The texts of the historians Diodorus of Sicily, Plutarch, Arrian, Curtius Rufus, Athenaeus, Aelian and Justin were studied, with their information concerning wine consumption by Macedonians, and especially Alexander, and were evaluated. The surviving historical texts, all later than Alexander's epoch, are based on a series of contemporary histories and especially on the 'Royal Journals', an official diary written in the imperial court. Alexander consumed large quantities of undiluted wine periodically, reaching pathological intoxication. However, the existing data do not provide convincing evidence that Alexander the Great manifested abuse of or dependence on alcohol according to DSM-IV or ICD-10 criteria and it seems unlikely that alcohol was involved in his untimely death.

Identity Centrality and In-Group Superiority Differentially Predict Reactions to Historical Victimization and Harm Doing

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Rezarta Bilali

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Two U.S. studies report a differential effect of identity centrality and in-group superiority on reactions to in-group victimization and in-group harm-doing. Study 1 (N = 80 found that higher identity centrality predicted less justification for freely-recalled in-group victim events, whereas higher in-group superiority predicted more justification for freely-recalled in-group harm-doing events. Study 2 (N = 105 reexamined these findings in specific contexts of historical victimization (Pearl Harbor and harm-doing (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, finding that in-group superiority was a predictor of reactions to historical in-group harm-doing (justification, emotional reactions, importance of events, whereas centrality was a predictor of reactions to historical in-group victimization.

Comparative riverscape genetics reveals reservoirs of genetic diversity for conservation and restoration of Great Plains fishes.

Science.gov (United States)

Osborne, Megan J; Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B; Turner, Thomas F

2014-12-01

We used comparative landscape genetics to examine the relative roles of historical events, intrinsic traits and landscape factors in determining the distribution of genetic diversity of river fishes across the North American Great Plains. Spatial patterns of diversity were overlaid on a patch-based graphical model and then compared within and among three species that co-occurred across five Great Plains watersheds. Species differing in reproductive strategy (benthic vs. pelagic-spawning) were hypothesized to have different patterns of genetic diversity, but the overriding factor shaping contemporary patterns of diversity was the signature of past climates and geological history. Allelic diversity was significantly higher at southern latitudes for Cyprinella lutrensis and Hybognathus placitus, consistent with northward expansion from southern Pleistocene refugia. Within the historical context, all species exhibited lowered occupancy and abundance in heavily fragmented and drier upstream reaches, particularly H. placitus; a pelagic-spawning species, suggesting rates of extirpation have outpaced losses of genetic diversity in this species. Within most tributary basins, genetically diverse populations of each species persisted. Hence, reconnecting genetically diverse populations with those characterized by reduced diversity (regardless of their position within the riverine network) would provide populations with greater genetic and demographic resilience. We discuss cases where cross-basin transfer may be appropriate to enhance genetic diversity and mitigate negative effects of climate change. Overall, striking similarities in genetic patterns and in response to fragmentation and dewatering suggest a common strategy for genetic resource management in this unique riverine fish assemblage. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Teaching towards historical expertise : Developing students’ ability to reason causally in history

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoel, G.L.

2017-01-01

Explaining historical events is an important goal in history education, but not much is known about pedagogical approaches to support this reasoning. In this dissertation, we therefore developed and investigated a learning-environment intended to foster students’ ability for causal historical

Spatial Integration Analysis of Provincial Historical and Cultural Heritage Resources Based on Geographic Information System (gis) — a Case Study of Spatial Integration Analysis of Historical and Cultural Heritage Resources in Zhejiang Province

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, W.; Zhang, J.; Wu, Q.; Chen, J.; Huo, X.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, T.

2017-08-01

In China historical and cultural heritage resources include historically and culturally famous cities, towns, villages, blocks, immovable cultural relics and the scenic spots with cultural connotation. The spatial distribution laws of these resources are always directly connected to the regional physical geography, historical development and historical traffic geography and have high research values. Meanwhile, the exhibition and use of these resources are greatly influenced by traffic and tourism and other plans at the provincial level, and it is of great realistic significance to offer proposals on traffic and so on that are beneficial to the exhibition of heritage resources based on the research of province distribution laws. This paper takes the spatial analysis of Geographic Information System (GIS) as the basic technological means and all historical and cultural resources in China's Zhejiang Province as research objects, and finds out in the space the accumulation areas and accumulation belts of Zhejiang Province's historic cities and cultural resources through overlay analysis and density analysis, etc. It then discusses the reasons of the formation of these accumulation areas and accumulation belts by combining with the analysis of physical geography and historical geography and so on, and in the end, linking the tourism planning and traffic planning at the provincial level, it provides suggestions on the exhibition and use of accumulation areas and accumulation belts of historic cities and cultural resources.

Private events: from methodological behaviorism to interbehaviorism

OpenAIRE

Bueno, Roberto; Universidad de San Martín de Porres / Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal

2010-01-01

As supposed events being accessible to a unique observer, private events posit an interesting challenge to a behavioristic psychology. Three historical variants of behaviorism dealt with the problem of private events: methodological behaviorism, radical behaviorism and interbehaviorism. The basic argument of the two last views, and that distinguishes them from the former, is that private events are comprised into the scope of an objective science of behavior. The analysis of these accounts pe...

VLF Observation of Long Ionospheric Recovery Events

Science.gov (United States)

Cotts, B. R.; Inan, U. S.

2006-12-01

On the evening of 20 November 1992, three early/fast events were observed on the great circle path (GCP) from the NAU transmitter in Puerto Rico to Gander (GA), Newfoundland. These events were found to have significantly longer recovery times (up to 20 minutes) than any previously documented events. Typical early/fast events and Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP) events affect the D-region ionosphere near the night-time VLF-reflection height of ~85 km and exhibit recovery to pre-event levels of gigantic jets. In this context, preliminary results indicate that the lightning-associated VLF long recovery events appear to be more common in oceanic thunderstorms. In this paper, we present occurrence statistics and other measured properties of VLF long recovery events, observed on all-sea based and land based VLF great circle paths.

HISTORICISM AND HISTORICAL AND CRITICAL METHOD IN WOLFHART PANNENBERG’S THEOLOGY

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Andrey Lavrentyev

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Researched is the problem of awareness of historicism for the christian theology, presented in the works of a german theologian Wolfhart Pannenberg. Discussed are the issue of application of the methods of historical science in theology, the problem of historical anthropocentrism, coexistence «natural» and «supernatural» events in history, teleology and contingency of history. It is come to conclusion of special significance of historical knowledge for Christian theology

Studying historical occupational careers with multilevel growth models

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Wiebke Schulz

2010-10-01

Full Text Available In this article we propose to study occupational careers with historical data by using multilevel growth models. Historical career data are often characterized by a lack of information on the timing of occupational changes and by different numbers of observations of occupations per individual. Growth models can handle these specificities, whereas standard methods, such as event history analyses can't. We illustrate the use of growth models by studying career success of men and women, using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands. The results show that the method is applicable to male careers, but causes trouble when analyzing female careers.

Surface Deformation Associated With a Historical Diking Event in Afar From Correlation of Space and Air-Borne Optical Images

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, J.; Peltzer, G.; Leprince, S.; Ayoub, F.; Kasser, M.

2011-12-01

We present new measurements of the surface deformation associated with the rifting event of 1978 in the Asal-Ghoubbet rift, Republic of Djibouti. The Asal-Ghoubbet rift forms a component of the Afar Depression, a broad extensional region at the junction between the Nubia, Arabia, and Somalia plates, which apart from Iceland, is the only spreading center located above sea-level. The 1978 rifting event was marked by a 2-month sequence of small to moderate earthquakes (Mb ~3-5) and a fissural eruption of the Ardukoba Volcano. Deformation in the Asal rift associated with the event included the reactivation of the main bordering faults and the development of numerous open fissures on the rift floor. The movement of the rift shoulders, measured using ground-based geodesy, showed up to 2.5 m of opening in the N40E direction. Our data include historical aerial photographs from 1962 and 1984 (less than 0.8 m/pixel) along the northern border fault, three KH-9 Hexagon(~8 m/pixel) satellite images from 1973, and recently acquired ASTER (15 m/pixel) and SPOT5 (2.5 m/pixel) data. The measurements are made by correlating pre- and post-event images using the COSI-Corr (Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation) software developed at Caltech. The ortho-rectification of the images is done with a mosaic of a 10 m resolution digital elevation model, made by French Institut Geographique National (IGN), and the SRTM and GDEM datasets. Correlation results from the satellite images indicate 2-3 meters of opening across the rift. Preliminary results obtained using the 1962 and 1984 aerial photographs indicate that a large fraction of the opening occurred on or near Fault γ, which borders the rift to the North. These preliminary results are largely consistent with the ground based measurements made after the event. A complete analysis of the aerial photograph coverage will provide a better characterization of the spatial distribution of the deformation throughout the rift.

Simulating the production and dispersion of environmental pollutants in aerosol phase in an urban area of great historical and cultural value.

Science.gov (United States)

Librando, Vito; Tringali, Giuseppe; Calastrini, Francesca; Gualtieri, Giovanni

2009-11-01

Mathematical models were developed to simulate the production and dispersion of aerosol phase atmospheric pollutants which are the main cause of the deterioration of monuments of great historical and cultural value. This work focuses on Particulate Matter (PM) considered the primary cause of monument darkening. Road traffic is the greatest contributor to PM in urban areas. Specific emission and dispersion models were used to study typical urban configurations. The area selected for this study was the city of Florence, a suitable test bench considering the magnitude of architectural heritage together with the remarkable effect of the PM pollution from road traffic. The COPERT model, to calculate emissions, and the street canyon model coupled with the CALINE model, to simulate pollutant dispersion, were used. The PM concentrations estimated by the models were compared to actual PM concentration measurements, as well as related to the trend of some meteorological variables. The results obtained may be defined as very encouraging even the models correlated poorly: the estimated concentration trends as daily averages moderately reproduce the same trends of the measured values.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

The Great London Smog of 1952.

Science.gov (United States)

Polivka, Barbara J

2018-04-01

: The Great London Smog of December 1952 lasted five days and killed up to 12,000 people. The smog developed primarily because of extensive burning of high-sulfur coal. The health effects were both immediate and long lasting, with a recent study revealing an increased likelihood of childhood asthma development in those exposed to the Great Smog while in utero or during their first year of life. Subsequent pollution legislation-including the U.S. Clean Air Act and its amendments-have demonstrably reduced air pollution and positively impacted health outcomes. With poor air quality events like the Great Smog continuing to occur today, nurses need to be aware of the impact such environmental disasters can have on human health.

Historical earthquake research in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Hammerl, Christa

2017-12-01

Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.

The great downside dilemma for risky emerging technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baum, Seth D

2014-01-01

Some emerging technologies promise to significantly improve the human condition, but come with a risk of failure so catastrophic that human civilization may not survive. This article discusses the great downside dilemma posed by the decision of whether or not to use these technologies. The dilemma is: use the technology, and risk the downside of catastrophic failure, or do not use the technology, and suffer through life without it. Historical precedents include the first nuclear weapon test and messaging to extraterrestrial intelligence. Contemporary examples include stratospheric geoengineering, a technology under development in response to global warming, and artificial general intelligence, a technology that could even take over the world. How the dilemma should be resolved depends on the details of each technology’s downside risk and on what the human condition would otherwise be. Meanwhile, other technologies do not pose this dilemma, including sustainable design technologies, nuclear fusion power, and space colonization. Decisions on all of these technologies should be made with the long-term interests of human civilization in mind. This paper is part of a series of papers based on presentations at the Emerging Technologies and the Future of Humanity event held at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on 17 March 2014. (invited comment)

High pollution events in the Great Salt Lake Basin and its adjacent valleys. Insights on mechanisms and spatial distribution of the formation of secondary aerosol.

Science.gov (United States)

Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Baasandorj, M.; Brown, S. S.; Fibiger, D. L.; Goldberger, L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Thornton, J. A.; Womack, C.

2017-12-01

High pollution events are common in many locations in the U.S.A. and around the world. They can last several days or up to weeks and they negatively affect human health, deteriorate visibility, and increase premature mortality. The main causes for high pollution events are related to meteorology and sources. They often happen in the winter, when high emissions, stagnation and reduced mixing, due to a shallow boundary layer, cause high concentrations of pollutants to accumulate. In the last decades, the air quality in the U.S. has seen an overall improvement, due to the reductions in particulate and gaseous pollutants. However, some areas remain critical. The Great Salt Lake Basin and its adjacent valleys are currently areas where high pollution events are a serious environmental problem involving more than 2.4 million people. We will present the results of the Utah Wintertime Fine Particulate Study (UWFPS) that took place in winter 2017. During UWFPS, we carried out airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition and precursor vapor concentrations over the Great Salt Lake Basin and its adjacent valleys. We will give insights into how and under which conditions conversion of precursor vapors into aerosol particles takes place in the area. We will also present a comparison of our measurements with models that will provide an insight of the mechanisms that lead to the formation of secondary aerosol particles. With the results of our work, we aim to inform strategies for pollution control in the future.

Place of great extinctions in the new ecological paradigm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. Я. Кипоренко

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The paper demonstrates importance of the knowledge of the causes and consequences of the Great extinctions that occurred before the origin of man, in the formation of a new environmental paradigm. Were described methodological foundations of paleoecological studies. Were analyzed the fossilized remains found directly by the authors on the territory of Ukraine. In the development of new environmental paradigm is necessary to consider knowledge of the great extinction (the knowledge of the past, because it is an event, that can be used not only to study past, as well as predicting the same events in the future

State-of-the-art of the historical seismology in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. J. Salcedo Hurtado

2004-06-01

Full Text Available In Colombia are available a discreet number of historical seismology investigations, dating back 50 years. This paper reviews basic information about earthquakes studies in Colombia, such as primary sources, compilation of descriptive catalogues and parametric catalogues. Father Jesús Emilio Ramírez made the main systematic study before 1975. During the last 20 years, great earthquakes hit Colombia and, as consequence, historical seismology investigation was developed in the frame of seismic hazard projects.

Clinical roundtable monograph. New alternatives in CLL therapy: managing adverse events.

Science.gov (United States)

Chanan-Khan, Asher; Kipps, Thomas; Stilgenbauer, Stephan

2010-08-01

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a B-cell leukemia mainly affecting older adults. Historically, CLL has been regarded as an incurable disease, and treatment has been confined to cytotoxic chemotherapy regimens. However, prognosis for patients treated with these agents remained poor, prompting the development of new, targeted agents. The introduction of rituximab, a CD20-targeted monoclonal antibody, revolutionized the treatment for this disease. Rituximab in combination with fludarabine improved response rates and length of progression-free survival. The success of rituximab in this setting has prompted the development of many more investigational agents for CLL, including other antibody agents. However, as with any medication, the potential benefit achieved with CLL therapies is mitigated by the safety risk for the patient. These agents have been associated with adverse events such as immunosuppression, reactivation of cytomegalovirus, and infusion-related reactions that can occur with antibody administration. Adverse events can greatly affect the patient’s quality of life and ability to tolerate therapy. Management of adverse events is a critical component of the overall treatment strategy for CLL, particularly in elderly patients. In this clinical roundtable monograph, 3 expert physicians discuss the latest clinical studies evaluating the treatment of CLL, focusing on the adverse events associated with each agent and the potential interventions that can be used to manage their occurrence.

Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Kiss, Andrea

2016-04-01

The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

Olomouc - Possibilities of Geovisualization of the Historical City

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Stanislav Popelka

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Olomouc, nowadays a city with 100,000 inhabitants, has always been considered as one of the most prominent Czech cities. It is a social and economical centre, which history started just about the 11th century. The present appearance of the city has its roots in the 18th century, when the city was almost razed to the ground after the Thirty years’ war and a great fire in 1709. After that, the city was rebuilt to a baroque military fortress against Prussia army. At the beginning of the 20th century the majority of the fortress was demolished. Character of the town is dominated by the large number of churches, burgher’s houses and other architecturally significant buildings, like a Holy Trinity Column, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Aim of this project was to state the most suitable methods of visualization of spatial-temporal change in historical build-up area from the tourist’s point of view, and to design and evaluate possibilities of spatial data acquisition. There are many methods of 2D and 3D visualization which are suitable for depiction of historical and contemporary situation. In the article four approaches are discussed comparison of historical and recent pictures or photos, overlaying historical maps over the orthophoto, enhanced visualization of historical map in large scale using the third dimension and photorealistic 3D models of the same area in different ages. All mentioned methods were geolocalizated using the Google Earth environment and multimedia features were added to enhance the impression of perception. Possibilities of visualization, which were outlined above, were realized on a case study of the Olomouc city. As a source of historical data were used rapport plans of the bastion fortress from the 17th century. The accuracy of historical maps was confirmed by cartometric methods with use of the MapAnalyst software. Registration of the spatial-temporal changes information has a great potential in urban planning or

The human impact of volcanoes: a historical review of events 1900-2009 and systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dooling, Shayna; Gorokhovich, Yuri

2013-04-16

Introduction. More than 500 million people live within the potential exposure range of a volcano. The risk of catastrophic losses in future eruptions is significant given population growth, proximities of major cities to volcanoes, and the possibility of larger eruptions. The objectives of this review are to describe the impact of volcanoes on the human population, in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of volcanoes were compiled using two methods, a historical review of volcano events from 1900 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between volcano mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were a total of 91,789 deaths (range: 81,703-102,372), 14,068 injuries (range 11,541-17,922), and 4.72 million people affected by volcanic events between 1900 and 2008. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of numbers injured and affected. The primary causes of mortality in recent volcanic eruptions were ash asphyxiation, thermal injuries from pyroclastic flow, and trauma. Mortality was concentrated with the ten deadliest eruptions accounting for more than 80% of deaths; 84% of fatalities occurred in four locations (the Island of Martinique (France), Colombia, Indonesia, and Guatemala). Conclusions. Changes in land use practices and population growth provide a background for increasing risk; in conjunction with increasing urbanization in at risk areas, this poses a challenge for future volcano preparedness and mitigation efforts.

The War in the Historical Memory of Nations

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Nikolaj V. Pavlov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is no doubt that the most important event of the 20th century was a joint victory of the united front of peoples and states over German fascism. For some that was the victory in the Second World War. For the Russians - the victory in the Great Patriotic War which cost the Soviet Union incredible efforts, enormous sacrifices and material losses. Now when we celebrate the 70thyear since that epoch-making date we turn our attention once more to the lessons of history because the memory of the war has been imprinted deeply on our gene level of Russians and Germans. This is because every family from both sides sustained heavy losses. This memory is alive in literature, in movies and plays, songs, in memorials, biographies and historical dates. The Russian and German descendants of those who fought against each other are doing an important work searching for the killed, looking after the burial places, compensating the damage to the victims of this inhuman massacre, trying to understand critically our common and controversial past. What was the 9th of May for the Germans and the Russians in the perception of Germans and Russians? Was it a victory, a defeat or liberation? This is what the author of the article reflects on, convinced that we are anyway dealing with the greatest event of the 20th century, at least because it prevented the end of civilization.

Monitoring and forecasting of radiation hazard from great solar energetic particle events by using on-line one-min neutron monitor and satellite data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorman, L. I.

2007-01-01

The method of automatically determining the start of great solar energetic particle (SEP) events are described on the basis of cosmic ray (CR) one-min observations by neutron monitors in real-time scale. It is shown that the probabilities of false alarms and missed triggers are negligible. After the start of SEP event, it is automatically determined by the method of coupling functions the SEP energy spectrum and flux for each minute of observations. By solving the inverse problem during few first minutes of SEP event, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, source function on the Sun, and time of ejection of SEP into solar wind are determined. For extending obtained results into small energy range we use also available from Internet the satellite one-min CR data. This make possible to give forecast of space-time variation of SEP for more than 2 days and estimate expected radiation dose for satellite and aircraft. With each new minute of observations, the quality of forecast increased, and after ∼30 min became near 100%. (authors)

Geoarchaeology of water management at Great Zimbabwe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sulas, Federica; Pikirayi, Innocent; Sagiya, Munyaradzi Elton

In Africa, research on water management in urban contexts has often focussed rainfall, and the occurrence floods and droughts, whereas small-scale catchment systems and soil moisture regimes have received far less attention. This paper sets out to re-address the issue by examining the occurrence......, distribution and use of multiple water resources at the ancient urban landscape of Great Zimbabwe. Here, the rise and demise of the urban site have been linked to changing rainfall in the 1st mill. AD. Accordingly, rainfall shortages and consequent droughts eventually leading to the decline and abandonment...... of Great Zimbabwe at around 1550 AD. However, new research findings suggest a different scenario. Combining geoarchaeolological investigations, soil micromorphology and geochemistry with the study of historical sources and ethnographic records, new datasets indicate prolonged availability and diversified...

Process mining on databases: Unearthing historical data from redo logs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

González-López de Murillas, E.; van der Aalst, W.M.P.; Reijers, H.A.

2015-01-01

Process Mining techniques rely on the existence of event data. However, in many cases it is far from trivial to obtain such event data. Considerable efforts may need to be spent on making IT systems record historic data at all. But even if such records are available, it may not be possible to derive

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

The Great 1787 Earthquake (M 8.6) and Tsunami along The Mexican Subduction Zone - History, Geology and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichvili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

2017-12-01

The 1787 great earthquake (M 8.6) triggered a deadly tsunami that poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland. This tsunami, according with historical documents, destroyed mostly farmlands and livestock, and damaged few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time. We report first on geological evidence from the Corralero lagoon and adjacent coastal plain that seem in agreement with historical accounts. The deposit left by the 1787 tsunami can be traced along a transect of cores and test pits from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that was deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is almost continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at variable depths, with variable thickness, and pinching up with the distance from the coastline. We used stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic susceptibility and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility proxies to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. Stratigraphy, abrupt contacts, and magnetic properties support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported most probably by an extreme sea-wave far inland. Furthermore, based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, and estimates from 210Pb sedimentation rates, we suggest that this is the tsunami deposit left by the 1787 event. Tsunami modeling will further enhance the hazard and risk assessment of this area in Mexico.

Studying constructions of national identity across historical settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ydesen, Christian; Øland, Trine

2018-01-01

, and national self-imagery. The first setting is the first decade after World War II and the second setting is the post-9/11 era. The empirical focus is based on sources pertaining to the way police officers and related professionals of the Danish welfare nation-state construct disturbing behavior and how......This article aims to demonstrate how constructions of national identity can be studied across historical settings. In this sense, the article contributes knowledge about how Danish-ness is constructed in two historical settings characterized by great upheavals in popular moral codes, culture...... these constructions are made into categories that activate an array of interventions. Using a comparative outlook between the two historical settings and by putting theoretically guided questions to work empirically, the purpose of this article is to understand 1) the boundaries of legitimate behavior and membership...

Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

Science.gov (United States)

Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

2008-09-01

The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

Historical gardens of the Banat region

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Hegedűs Noémi Melitta

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is the studying of a frequently seen phenomenon, which is the loss of value as far as some buildings and their surroundings are concerned, which, at the moment of their construction, held great historical and architectural value, but in time they have gradually lost their value due to political, social, and cultural changes. In the Banat region of the first half of the 19th century, we can remark the dominance of the neoclassical style. The parks of the Banat region, apart from their role of satisfying the visual aesthetic appearances, are very well adapted to the place. They are unique, but the pattern after which they were conceived is common, according to the fashion of the era in which they were created. The subject of the research develops around the historical gardens belonging to certain historical monuments. The aim of researching these landscape arrangements is the investigation of the present-day situation and their evolution that has led to their actual transformation.

Historical Chronology of ENSO Events Based Upon Documentary Data From South America: Strengths and Limitations

Science.gov (United States)

Luc, O.

2007-05-01

The first reconstructions of past El Niño occurrences were proposed by W. Quinn twenty years ago. They were based on documentary evidence of anomalous rainfall episodes, destructive floods and other possible impacts of El Niño conditions in Peru and other South-American countries. It has been shown, later, that the El Niño chronological sequence covering the last four and a half centuries produced by Quinn needed a thorough revision since many so-called EN events had not occurred while some others had been overlooked. Beside the classical methodological problems met in historical climatology studies (reliability of data, confidence in the sources, primary and secondary information), the reconstruction of former EN events faces specific difficulties dealing with the significance of the indicators and their spatial location. For instance, strong precipitation anomalies during summer in Southern Ecuador and northern Peru and precipitation excess recorded in the preceding winter in central Chile constitute quite reliable proxies of El Niño conditions, in modern times. However this observed teleconnection pattern, which is useful to reinforce the interpretation of past EN occurrences, seems to have been inoperative before the early nineteenth century. It is interpreted that atmospheric circulation features during the Little Ice Age interfered with the teleconnection system linking the EN impacts in northern Peru and central Chile. As a consequence, how should be evaluated the significance of documented winter precipitation excess in central Chile in years during which there is drought evidence in northern Peru, during the sixteenth to eighteenth century? And vice versa, are former evidences for precipitation excess in northern Peru (prior to the nineteenth century) quite reliable indicators for EN conditions, even if the preceding winter was dry in the Valparaiso-Santiago region? Other specific problems met in the building-up of a consolidated EN chronological

To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

Science.gov (United States)

Schaarup-Jensen, K; Rasmussen, M R; Thorndahl, S

2009-01-01

In urban drainage modelling long-term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties with regards to long-term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO volumes. Traditionally, long-term rainfall series, from a local rain gauge, are unavailable. In the present case study, however, long and local rain series are available. 2 rainfall gauges have recorded events for approximately 9 years at 2 locations within the catchment. Beside these 2 gauges another 7 gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity can be handled, e.g. by introducing an "averaging procedure" based on the variability within the set of statistics. All simulations are performed by means of the MOUSE LTS model.

The Great War and Its Significance for Law, Legal Thinking and Jurisprudence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boom, van W.H.

2014-01-01

This year marks the centenary of the outbreak of the Great War, the First World War. The remembrance events, museum exhibitions, TV-programs and numerous publications rightly draw attention to the Great War. Obviously, in the past century much scholarly work has been dedicated to the Great War, its

Making historic loss data comparable over time and place

Science.gov (United States)

Eichner, Jan; Steuer, Markus; Löw, Petra

2017-04-01

When utilizing historic loss data for present day risk assessment, it is necessary to make the data comparable over time and place. To achieve this, the assessment of costs from natural hazard events requires consistent and homogeneous methodologies for loss estimation as well as a robust treatment of loss data to estimate and/or reduce distorting effects due to a temporal bias in the reporting of small-scale loss events. Here we introduce Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE loss database and present a novel methodology of peril-specific normalization of the historic losses (to account for socio-economic growth of assets over time), and we introduce a metric of severity classification (called CatClass) that allows for a global comparison of impact severity across countries of different stages of economic development.

Statics of Historic Masonry Constructions

CERN Document Server

Como, Mario

2013-01-01

Masonry constructions are the great majority of the buildings in Europe’s historic centres and the most important monuments in its architectural heritage. Given the age of much of these constructions, the demand for safety assessments and restoration projects is pressing and constant. This book aims to help fill this demand presenting a comprehensive new statics of masonry constructions. The book, result of thirty years of research and professional experience, gives the fundamentals of statics of the masonry solid, then applied to the study of statics of arches, piers and vaults. Further, combining engineering and architecture and through an interdisciplinary approach, the book investigates the statical behaviour of many historic monuments, as the Pantheon, the Colosseum,  the domes of S. Maria del Fiore in Florence and of St. Peter in Rome, the Tower of Pisa, the Gothic Cathedrals and the Masonry Buildings under seismic actions.

Private events: from methodological behaviorism to interbehaviorism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Bueno

2011-09-01

Full Text Available As supposed events being accessible to a unique observer, private events posit an interesting challenge to a behavioristic psychology. Three historical variants of behaviorism dealt with the problem of private events: methodological behaviorism, radical behaviorism and interbehaviorism. The basic argument of the two last views, and that distinguishes them from the former, is that private events are comprised into the scope of an objective science of behavior. The analysis of these accounts permits us to confirm a gradual advance in behavior theory, in dealing with this issue, toward a totally monistic view.

Opportunity to Save Historical Railway Infrastructure - Adaptation and Functional Conversion of Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Podwojewska, Magdalena

2017-10-01

After years of neglect and underinvestment, the Polish railways are now witnessing a rapid modernization of both their technical facilities and rolling stock. However, this is true only of the main railway lines connecting major urban complexes. It is worth pointing out that a great number of secondary lines, railway stations and halts still has not been covered by the transformation process. Railway facilities, warehouses and service features are in decay. Rapid technological developments have caused numerous architectural structures of historical interest and service features to fall out of use. There are historical railway facilities dating back to the late 19th or early 20th centuries, whose condition is constantly deteriorating. The only way to save these structures is to change the manner, in which they are being used, and attract new investors and operators. The adaptation of buildings may be carried out in a number of ways by following different strategies. The process depends on the structure’s current condition and significance for the railway network. The facilities which are disused as a result of technological changes in the rolling stock and infrastructure include workshops, steam locomotive bays, turntables and warehouses. Their size and location within a city make them a perfect place for commercial services, exhibitions, heritage sites, concerts and other events attracting great numbers of people. Other strategies may be used for constructions located next to railways lines, whose role has declined. Such constructions include small railway stations, warehouses, reloading and forwarding facilities, railway ramps, railway staff buildings as well as residences for railway employees. Railway stations located at large junctions can handle passenger traffic or freight loading operations. As well as acting as the only window to the world, railway stations in small towns housed all the services available in the place. At the same time, they served as

Great war, ethics of Vidovdan, memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šijaković Bogoljub

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Beginning with a characterization of contemporaneity (dominance of the financial sector and high technology, politicization of economy, ideological use of culture and control of the capacity for thought and a brief analysis of expansionism (political, economic, cultural on the eve of the Great War, the author embarks on a more detailed description of the spiritual situation in the wake of the Great War: in philosophy, literature, art, as well as the national-political programmatic texts and war propaganda publications of German intellectuals of the time. The continuity of the Austro-Hungarian colonial policy towards the Balkans and Serbia culminates in instigating a preventive war against Serbia by the elites in Berlin and Vienna, which is of importance with regard to the question of responsibility for the war, guided by concrete aims of war in which causes for war are reflected. These war elites wanted to declare the assassination in Sarajevo as the cause of war, which in fact was a political assassination and tyrannicide. The freedom movement of democratic youth, Mlada Bosna (Young Bosnia, needs to be viewed in the European context as inspired by the Serbian tradition of the cult of Kosovo and the ethics of Vidovdan (St Vitus' Day which speaks both about the victim's sacrifice as sublimation of history and about just suffering as elements of identity. Historical memory suggests that historical responsibility is transgenerational. The epic proportions of Serbian suffering in the Great War have additionally encouraged the positing of the theme of St Vitus' Day Temple (Vidovdanski Hram as envisaged by Ivan Meštrović. The foundations of this idea were shaken by Miloš Crnjanski who, in his 'Lyrics of Ithaca', succeeds in returning to Vidovdan (St Vitus' Day the inexhaustible national power of validity. Because of enormous Serbian military and civilian casualties in recent history, the need to establish a Victim's Sacrifice Memorial, in our day

The great fear of the nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labbe, M.H.

2000-09-01

The public opinion always kept complex relations with the atom, done of fascination and repulsion. Is it then correct to speak of ''great fear of nuclear''? To answer this question the author presents, in five chapters, an analysis of the relations between the public and the nuclear. The two first chapters are devoted to historical aspects with respectively a presentation of the atomic episodes and the ground traumatisms. The chapters three and four presents the fears of the nuclear policy and the civil nuclear. The last chapter deals with the the fear of the military nuclear. (A.L.B.)

Romanian revolution through the eyes of a contemporary. Some reflections on events confusing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enache Tușa

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Social events, political and historical spent in Romania in December 1989 are too important to remain registered only in newspapers or archives era for public order and defense institutions of the political system. Their extent and the subsequent consequences for the Romanian society, these events require their depth research because succeeding generations will have access to all past historical- political as it is.

Sociopolitical development of the nursing profession in Iran: a historical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Raiesifar, Afsaneh; Firouzkouhi, Mohammadreza; Fooladi, Marjaneh; Parvizy, Soroor

2016-01-01

Significant sociopolitical changes in recent decades have not only influenced the nursing profession, but also the entire Iranian healthcare system. This study describes the historical evolution of the nursing profession within a sociopolitical context. This historical review of unpublished and published literature endorsed personal accounts of historic events by 14 of the oldest nurses in Iran chosen through purposive sampling method, as they shared their nursing experiences. Individual recollections were collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews and later analyzed through oral history analysis method. From the results, the 3 categories of the White Revolution, the Islamic Revolution, and Iran-Iraq war and 8 subcategories emerged, where participants identified factors that fundamentally changed the Iranian nursing profession. The nursing profession continues to develop and help revise policies to improve the healthcare system and quality of care. The findings of this study facilitate the better understanding of the influence of sociopolitical events on the nursing profession and guide the revision or development of new healthcare policies.

Oxidative Weathering of Archean Sulfides: Implications for the Great Oxidation Event

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, A.; Romaniello, S. J.; Reinhard, C.; Garcia-Robledo, E.; Revsbech, N. P.; Canfield, D. E.; Lyons, T. W.; Anbar, A. D.

2015-12-01

The first widely accepted evidence for oxidation of Earth's atmosphere and oceans occurs ~2.45 Ga immediately prior to the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). A major line of evidence for this transition includes the abundances and isotopic variations of redox-sensitive transition metals in marine sediments (e.g., Fe, Mo, Re, Cr, and U). It is often assumed that oxidative weathering is required to liberate these redox-sensitive elements from sulfide minerals in the crust, and hence that their presence in early Archean marine sediments signifies that oxidative weathering was stimulated by small and/or transient "whiffs" of O2 in the environment.1 However, studies of crustal sulfide reactivity have not been conducted at O2 concentrations as low as those that would have prevailed when O2 began its rise during the late Archean (estimated at molybdenite oxidation kinetics at the nanomolar O2 concentrations that are relevant to late Archean environments. These measurements were made using recently developed, highly sensitive optical O2 sensors to monitor the rates at which the powdered minerals consumed dissolved O2 in a range of pH-buffered solutions.3Our data extend the range of experimental pyrite oxidation rates in the literature by three orders of magnitude from ~10-3 present atmospheric O2 to ~10-6. We find that molybdenite and pyrite oxidation continues to <1 nM O2 (4 x 10-6 present atmospheric O2). This implies that oxidative weathering of sulfides could occur under conditions which preserve MIF S fractionation. Furthermore, our results indicate that the rate law and reaction order of pyrite oxidation kinetics change significantly at nanomolar concentrations of O2 when compared to previous compilations.2 Our results provide new empirical data that should allow for more precise quantitative constraints on atmospheric pO2 based on the sedimentary rock record. 1Anbar, A.D. et al., 2007. Science, 317, i. 5846: 1903-1906. 2Williamson & Rimstidt, 1994. Geochim. et Cosmochim

A Study of the Historical Earthquake Catalog and Gutenberg-richter Parameter Values of the Korean Peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil; Rhee, Hyun Me

2010-01-01

The KIER's Korean historical earthquake catalog was revised for MMI≥VI events recorded from the years 27 A.D. to 1904. The magnitude of each event was directly determined from the criteria suggested by Seo. The criteria incorporated the damage phenomena of the Japanese historical earthquake catalog, recent seismological studies, and the results of tests performed on ancient structures in Korea. Thus, the uncertainty of the magnitudes of the Korean historical earthquakes can be reduced. Also, the Gutenberg-Richter parameter values were estimated based on the revised catalog of this study. It was determined that the magnitudes of a maximum inland and minimum offshore event were approximately 6.3 and 6.5, respectively. The Gutenberg-Richter parameter pairs of the historical earthquake catalog were estimated to be a=5.32±0.21, b=0.95±0.19, which were somewhat lower than those obtained from recent complete instrumental earthquakes. No apparent change in the Gutenberg-Richter parameter is observed for the 16 th -17 th centuries of the seismically active period

Genius [corrected] without the "Great Man": new possibilities for the historian of psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Laura C

2012-02-01

The Carlylian style of history, more commonly known as the "Great Man" approach, presented the "genius" as an individual worthy of celebration: history as hero worship. This style, which characterized the first wave of the history of psychology, has gone out of historiographic fashion. In its place is the "new history," which is marked by its external focus and privileging of social factors and cultural context in its explanations. This shift in historiographic sensibilities has also led to a revision in the appropriate subject matter for psychologist-historians. This article argues, in contrast, that it is possible to study eminent individuals without resorting to hagiography, and it presents various methods that could be used for this purpose. The aim of such an endeavor is to create a space for critically and historically informed perspectives on greatness and to suggest a reconsideration of the value of an "historical psychology".

Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

2016-01-01

An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

Everything for the Lulz: Historical Memes and World War II Memory on Lurkomor’e

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Makhortykh, M.

2015-01-01

The article explores interactions between digital media and cultural memory in post-Soviet countries by focusing on internet memes related to World War II. It introduces the concept of historical internet memes, which are groups of digital content units associated with a historical event or a

The Amazon Caboclo: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Eugene Philip, Ed.

1985-01-01

This collection of papers provides a general sketch of the events and processes leading to the evolution and development of Caboclo culture in the Amazonia region of South America. Following the foreword and introduction, the book is divided into two parts. Part one contains historical background about the period from 1615 to 1920 within three…

The History of Research and Development Islands Peter the Great Bay, Sea of Japan

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Aleksandr B. Kosolapov

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the history of the discovery, research and development of the islands of Russian pioneers in Peter the Great Bay, Sea of Japan from the middle of the XIX century. The paper used in scientific papers and journalistic materials researchers Islands Peter the Great Bay, unpublished sources: Russian State Historical Archive of the Far East, Primorsky Region State Archives, Archives of Primorsky regional department of the All-Russian public organization "Russian Geographical Society" Society for the Study of the Amur region. The methodological basis of the work was the principle of historicism and objectivity, allowed to consider the issue of research and development of the islands of the Gulf of Peter the Great on a broad documentary basis in the process of development in the specific historical conditions. The history of hydrographic discoveries of natural and geographical studies. It touches upon the issues concerning the construction of Vladivostok fortress. In the periodical press materials recreated pages agricultural and industrial development of the islands. Examples of business entrepreneurs first edge (A.D. Startsev, M.I. Jankowski, O.V. Lindgolm. The Toponymic notes link the island territories with the names of their discoverers, explorers, industrialists. The authors conclude that the historical conditionality of development of the islands is linked mainly with the military interests of Russia on its southeastern edge, using the resources of the sea and the unique natural conditions suitable for the development of agricultural, industrial, recreation and tourism.

Statics of historic masonry constructions

CERN Document Server

Como, Mario

2017-01-01

Masonry constructions are the great majority of the buildings in Europe’s historic centres and the most important monuments of its architectural heritage. Given the age of these constructions, the demand for safety assessments and restoration projects is pressing and constant; still within the broad studies in the subject it is not yet recognised, in particular within the seismic area, a unitary approach to deal with Masonry structures. This successful book contributes to clarify the issues with a rigorous approach offering a comprehensive new Statics of Masonry Constructions. This third edition has been driven by some recent developments of the research in the field, and it gives the fundamentals of Statics with an original and rigorous mathematical formulation, further in-depth inquired in this new version. With many refinements and improvements, the book investigates the static behaviour of many historic monuments, such as the Gothic Cathedrals, the Mycenaean Tholoi, the Pantheon, the Colosseum, the dome...

Religious-Historical Sublayers in Anania Shirakatsi's Works

Science.gov (United States)

Yerznkyan, Nora

2014-10-01

This work is forward-looking with its content, because 7th century mathemetician, geographer and one of the most important representatives of natural sciences in the Middle Ages Anania Shirakatsi is mostly recognized in the frames of above-mentioned sciences and his works are mainly studied under this angle. However this article is a sort of guide to focus reader's attention not only on his works about natural sciences, but also on his religious and historical observations. Some parts of his works give clear description about some historical events in Armenia which is very important in highlighting social and economic relations. In order to prove the importance of his works, it is enough to mention that Shirakatsi in his "Khndragirq" (book of tasks) gave several examples which was later used to prove the existence of vassal living in the early feudal stages, which is an important historical fact.

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800)?

Science.gov (United States)

Chirikure, Shadreck; Moultrie, Thomas; Bandama, Foreman; Dandara, Collett; Manyanga, Munyaradzi

2017-01-01

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site's nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000-1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950.

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 - 1800?

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Shadreck Chirikure

Full Text Available The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha. This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site's nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000-1800, after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950.

Traces of the Great War. Architecture and restoration a century on

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Gian Paolo Treccani

2014-06-01

Full Text Available One hundred years after the First World War, the essay intends to review the systems adopted for protection of historic buil- dings, along with the damage suffered, and reconstruction after the war. The two wars which, in the 20th century, involved Italy, and severely damaged its historical patrimony, had different outcomes and gave rise to very different memories. Damage caused by the Second World War (1939-45 was much more serious, and the memories which historians of art, architects and restorers produced, in the form of documents and popular essays, are vast. However, the Great War, especially in the North-East of Italy, produced profound changes, not only due to the complete ruin of entire villages (Asiago, Conegliano and others, but, as it is known, also due to the serious damage which Venice, Verona, Treviso suffered through bombings. Unlike the Second World War, which was in every way destructive, the Great War, also because of specific strategies and military techniques, was in some way a “constructive” war: it led to the construction of huge military buildings (barracks, fortress, infrastructures, etc.. For this reason, the Great War was probably the last conflictin human history which, paradoxically, produced new buildings and new landscapes. These inheritances, which very often show high technical and aesthetic qualities, have had little recogni- tion, and even less investment for conservation and re-use.

Murder and Mayhem. "The Great Gatsby": The Facts Behind the Fiction. Learning Page Lesson Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohrbach, Margie; Koszoru, Janie

To appreciate historical fiction, students need to understand the factual context and recognize how popular culture reflects the values, mores, and events of the time period. Since a newspaper records significant events and attitudes representative of a period, students create their own newspapers, utilizing primary source materials from several…

"Confused by Multiple Deities, Ancient Egyptians Embraced Monotheism": Analysing Historical Thinking and Inclusion in Egyptian History Textbooks

Science.gov (United States)

Abdou, Ehaab D.

2016-01-01

Egyptian history textbooks are examined through the prism of historical thinking dimensions and skills, utilizing a critical discourse analysis. The analysis focuses on how the textbooks portray two historically significant events: the advent of Christianity (ca. 33 CE) and Islam (ca. 641 CE) to Egypt. It reveals that the historical narrative…

Historical time in the age of big data: Cultural psychology, historical change, and the Google Books Ngram Viewer.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettit, Michael

2016-05-01

Launched in 2010, the Google Books Ngram Viewer offers a novel means of tracing cultural change over time. This digital tool offers exciting possibilities for cultural psychology by rendering questions about variation across historical time more quantitative. Psychologists have begun to use the viewer to bolster theories about a historical shift in the United States from a more collectivist to individualist form of selfhood and society. I raise 4 methodological cautions about the Ngram Viewer's use among psychologists: (a) the extent to which print culture can be taken to represent culture as a whole, (b) the difference between viewing the past in terms of trends versus events, (c) assumptions about the stability of a word's meaning over time, and (d) inconsistencies in the scales and ranges used to measure change over time. The aim is to foster discussion about the standards of evidence needed for incorporating historical big data into empirical research. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Heritage film set : the protection and care of historic filming locations

OpenAIRE

Flynn, Clare

2016-01-01

Taking part in filming can offer considerable benefits to the historic properties involved, including increased visitor numbers, public awareness, and funding that can facilitate the ongoing care and conservation of the featured properties. However, film shoots are also intrusive events that introduce serious threats to the historic built fabric of these properties. This dissertation will investigate how the conservation integrity of heritage sites and properties is maintained when film shoot...

Written records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea – challenges associated with developing a new integrated database

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A. Y. A. Lau

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical tsunami database for the northeastern (NE region of the South China Sea (SCS including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on historical records from 1951–2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any source affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%. However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height >1 m, and/or causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any given year is low (1–2%. This work indicates the need for further research using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate

Events and mega events: leisure and business in tourism

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Ricardo Alexandre Paiva

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The promotion of events and mega events mobilizes at the same time, in a concatenated way or not, leisure and business practices, which are captured by the tourism industry as a stimulus for the reproduction of capitalism, by the amount of other activities which raise (primary, secondary and tertiary , placing the architecture and the city as protagonists in contemporary urban development. In this sense, the article analyzes the articulation of events and mega events to the provision of architecture and urban infrastructure, as well as the construction of the tourist image of the places, motivated by leisure and business activities. The methodological procedures have theoretical and exploratory character and have multidisciplinary intentions. This will be discussed, in a historical perspective, the concepts of leisure and business activities that raise as moving or traveling; next it will be delimited similarities and differences between tourism events and business tourism, entering after the analysis of the distinctions between events and mega events, highlighting the complexity and the role of mega-events as a major symptom of globalization; finally it will be presented the spatial scale developments in architecture and the city in the realization of (mega events, as well as its impact on the city's image. As a synthesis, it is important to notice that spatial developments business tourism, events and mega events are manifested in various scales and with different levels of complexity, revealing the strengths and / or weaknesses of the places. The urban planning, architecture and urbanism are important objects of knowledge and spatial intervention to ensure infrastructure and urban and architectural structures appropriate for events, which should be sensitive to the demands of tourists and host communities.

Transmuting historical antecedents for mass reaction in Osofisan's ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article adopts the inflection device in fabulous theatre (Abubakar, 2006) to measure the efficacy or otherwise of the aforementioned qualities in Femi Osofisan's handling of three major historical events in The Chattering and the Song (Osofisan, 1977) and Once Upon Four Robbers (Osofisan, 1991). The antecedents are ...

Achebe's Novels as a Historical Documentation of Nigeria | Ugwanyi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It is with this background that the paper looks at the Nigerian state from its early beginnings to the present state of chaos, anarchy and great backwardness and concludes that Chinua Achebe has aptly used his novels to reflect these historical movements. This paper shows clearly that imperialism is the basis of the crises ...

Correlation between Space and Atmospheric March 2012 Extreme Events

Science.gov (United States)

Anagnostopoulos, Georgios C.

2015-04-01

Previous studies have provided statistical evidence of a solar cycle correlation between space weather and meteorological phenomena. In this study we present a case study, the March 2012 events, with a strong evidence of such a correlation between space and atmospheric extreme events. March 2012 phenomena, beside a great CME (March 7) and a following superstorm, has been most known in the scientific community as well as in the public from the historic heat wave in USA. This event was not anticipated by solely atmospheric models (called a "black swan event":http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/events/2012/marchheatwave/anticipation.html). Furthermore, various extreme phenomena as high temperatures, intense rainfalls and ice extent at middle and high latitudes followed the March 7, 2012 CME all over the globe (USA, Europe, Australia, Antartic), while unusual measurements of various atmospheric and ionospheric quantities were observed by a series of satellites (TIMED, MODIS, NOAA etc.) In this study we concentrate to (a) the unusual high maximum of temperature in north-east USA (highest values since 1910) and (b) intense winds, rainfalls and fluctuating (>1500 V/m) geolectric fields in South East Europe (Greece). These events were observed almost simultaneously with geomagnetic storms and unusual radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP) events on days 6-9, 10-12 and 26-28.3.2012 (two CMEs and one CIR). The most striking result is the time coincidence of variations of several space and meteorological measurements, which, for instance, most probably suggests a direct influence of the RBEP on the intense rainfalls observed in Greece. It is also possible that the RBEP at polar latitudes was responsible for the positive North Atlantic Oscillation effect evaluated at those times, which contributed to the global middle and high latitude weather variations. Our study provides an example of possible space weather utility to the atmospheric models, and, therefore, to the

Modern historical epistemology through the prism of Paul Ricoeur’ transactions

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Trubnikova Natalia

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this article it is carried out the contribution of Paul Ricoeur, the leading theorist of modern humanitarian knowledge, in the elaboration of the modern historical epistemology problems. His diverse works affect all sense fields of history and historical perception. The article shows the place of Paul Ricoeur as a primary guide of philosophical hermeneutic tradition achievements in the sphere of historical research, moreover, as a thinker, who gives a principal possibility to surmount divisions of different historiographical trends and find a methodological consensus in regard to basic orientations of historical scholarship. On the basis of his works the dialectic of a historical objectivity and a personal subjectivity of historian, the interoperability issues of history and historical memory are traced. At the same time this paper touches principals dichotomies, basic for the Paul Ricoeur’s considerations, such as fiction and historical narration, structure and event, history and truth, memory and imagination, scientism and art of interpretation, human action and social constraint. The contents of a current debate on the theory of history, based on the development of the Ricoeur’s “defatalisation” of history concept and utopian future vision are shown.

Potency of Education Historical Tourismof World War II Japanese Cavesand Bunkersin Coastal Banyuwangi

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmi, Miftahul; Qiram, Ikhwanul

2018-05-01

Banyuwangi district has some Japanese caves and bunkers of World War II. The location of the objects are along the Banyuwangi coast as a maritime defense during the war. This structures can be used as education historical tourism object. There are many similar structures in other area that have been neglected and do not get enough preservation attention. This research is aimed to identify the potency of education historical tourism of Japanese caves and bunker in Banyuwangi. The research is done by field research for the observation of objects physical condition. It is also done by interviewing local government, historical actors and surrounding community. The result shows that the caves and bunker have a great potency but have not been used as education historical object.

The great fear of 1987: a rereading of the accident with Cesium-137 in Goiania, Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira Junior, Euripedes Monteiro de

2016-01-01

The works that take as object of study the radioactive accident in Goiania, and I have found to date, have tried to give special importance to its legal, psychosocial and clinical trials of radiation patients. Here in this text, I will try to understand this event from its historical dimension of fear, emphasizing its historicity from the social and cultural practices of some people, groups and entities involved with the issue. In other words, the focus of this study will be in the memories of those social relations that have been built while unfolding the event, both past and present. In this sense, we find our main concerns contained in a number of issues that are constantly alluded to discussions in which the central concepts refer to the event, memory and narrative in this case will be worked out by building the fear contained in people's memories, in groups involved in the event as well as the narratives constructed by official agencies involved in the event along with the film and the news media. (author)

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

Reassessment of the historical seismic activity with major impact on S. Miguel Island (Azores

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D. Silveira

2003-01-01

Full Text Available On account of its tectonic setting, both seismic and volcanic events are frequent in the Azores archipelago. During the historical period earthquakes and seismic swarms of tectonic and/or volcanic origin have struck S. Miguel Island causing a significant number of casualties and severe damages. The information present in historical records made possible a new macroseismic analysis of these major events using the European Macroseismic Scale-1998 (EMS-98. Among the strongest earthquakes of tectonic origin that affected S. Miguel Island, six events were selected for this study. The isoseismal maps drawn for these events enabled the identification of areas characterized by anomalous values of seismic intensity, either positive or negative, to constrain epicentre locations and to identify some new seismogenic areas. Regarding seismic activity associated with volcanic phenomena six cases were also selected. For each of the studied cases cumulative intensity values were assessed for each locality. The distribution of local intensity values shows that the effects are not homogeneous within a certain distance from the eruptive centre, the area of major impacts relates with the eruptive style and damages equivalent to high intensities may occur in Furnas and Sete Cidades calderas. Combining all the historical macroseismic data, a maximum intensity map was produced for S. Miguel Island.

Coral skeletons provide historical evidence of phosphorus runoff on the great barrier reef.

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Jennie Mallela

Full Text Available Recently, the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef have declined rapidly because of deteriorating water quality. Increased catchment runoff is one potential culprit. The impacts of land-use on coral growth and reef health however are largely circumstantial due to limited long-term data on water quality and reef health. Here we use a 60 year coral core record to show that phosphorus contained in the skeletons (P/Ca of long-lived, near-shore Porites corals on the Great Barrier Reef correlates with annual records of fertiliser application and particulate phosphorus loads in the adjacent catchment. Skeletal P/Ca also correlates with Ba/Ca, a proxy for fluvial sediment loading, again linking near-shore phosphorus records with river runoff. Coral core records suggest that phosphorus levels increased 8 fold between 1949 and 2008 with the greatest levels coinciding with periods of high fertiliser-phosphorus use. Periods of high P/Ca correspond with intense agricultural activity and increased fertiliser application in the river catchment following agricultural expansion and replanting after cyclone damage. Our results demonstrate how coral P/Ca records can be used to assess terrestrial nutrient loading of vulnerable near-shore reefs.

Characterization And State-Of-The-Art Modeling Of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Africa During The Historical Period

Science.gov (United States)

Gibba, P.; Sylla, M. B.

2015-12-01

The ability of the state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the mean spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation indices over Africa is evaluated. The ensembles of eight precipitation-based indices as defined by ETCCDI were extracted from seventeen CMIP5 GCMs and twelve CORDEX RCMs simulations based on absolute and percentile (95th) thresholds and computed from the 1975 to 2004 historical period. Daily precipitation indices calculated from GPCP and TRMM satellite-derived observation datasets during the period 1997 to 2012 and 1998 to 2011 respectively were also employed in this study for model validation. Results of spatial representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events (R1mm, CDD, CWD and R95p) highlight a generally good consistency between the two observations. Equally, in the regional analysis some similarities exist in their median and interquartile (25th and 75th percentile) spread especially for CDD, CWD and R95p for most regions. In the associated intensities (SDII, RX5day, R95 and R95ptot), results indicate large spatial differences between the two observational datasets, with finer resolution TRMM generating higher rainfall intensities than the coarser resolution GPCP. TRMM has also demonstrated higher median and interquartile range as compared to GPCP. The CORDEX RCMs and CMIP5 GCMs simulations have estimated more number of extreme precipitation events, while underestimated the intensities. The differences between the models and observations can be as large as the typical model interquartile spread of the ensembles for some indices (R1mm, CWD, SDII and R95) in some regions. Meanwhile, CORDEX estimations are generally closer to the observations than CMIP5 in reproducing the frequency of extreme rainfall indices. For the estimation of rainfall intensities, CORDEX simulations are in most cases more consistence with TRMM observations whilst the CMIP5 GCMs simulations are closer to GPCP observations.

The death of Alexander the Great--a spinal twist of fate.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashrafian, Hutan

2004-06-01

Alexander the Great died in 323 B.C. from an unknown cause. Physical depictions of this historical figure reveal the likelihood of a cervical scoliotic deformity. This is substantiated with the medical history and is correlated with his untimely death. For the first time, it is concluded that Alexander's death may have ensued from the sequelae of congenital scoliotic syndrome.

The Gulf of Carpentaria heated Torres Strait and the Northern Great Barrier Reef during the 2016 mass coral bleaching event

Science.gov (United States)

Wolanski, E.; Andutta, F.; Deleersnijder, E.; Li, Y.; Thomas, C. J.

2017-07-01

The 2015/16 ENSO event increased the temperature of waters surrounding northeast Australia to above 30 °C, with large patches of water reaching 32 °C, for over two months, which led to severe bleaching of corals of the Northern Great Barrier Reef (NGBR). This study provides evidence gained from remote-sensing data, oceanographic data and oceanographic modeling, that three factors caused this excessive heating, namely: 1) the shutdown of the North Queensland Coastal Current, which would otherwise have flushed and cooled the Northern Coral Sea and the NGBR through tidal mixing 2) the advection of warm (>30 °C) water from the Gulf of Carpentaria eastward through Torres Strait and then southward over the NGBR continental shelf, and 3) presumably local solar heating. The eastward flux of this warm water through Torres Strait was driven by a mean sea level difference on either side of the strait that in turn was controlled by the wind, which also generated the southward advection of this warm water onto the NGBR shelf. On the NGBR shelf, the residence time of this warm water was longer inshore than offshore, and this may explain the observed cross-shelf gradient of coral bleaching intensity. The fate of the Great Barrier Reef is thus controlled by the oceanography of surrounding seas.

Historical analysis of Newfoundland dog fur colour genetics ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Whereas small white marks on the chest and/or paw appears to be a random event, the historical data supports the existence of an 'Irish spotted' fur colour pattern, with white head blaze, breast, paws and tail tip, in spotted/spotted homozygotes. Keywords: Fur colour genetics, Irish spotting, Landseer Newfoundland, MITF, ...

Historical perspectives on theories of periodontal disease etiology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hujoel, Philippe; Zina, Lívia Guimarães; Cunha-Cruz, Joana

2012-01-01

Our understanding of the causes of periodontal disease have changed greatly over time. The aim of this review is to provide a critical and historical perspective, dating back over more than a century, on two competing paradigms. While we understand that this stark dichotomization may be viewed...... as extreme, and is legitimately open to challenge, it is our hope that this didactic approach will serve to stimulate debate. The distinction made focuses on whether the primary etiology involves local causes, such as dental plaque, or involves remote causes, such as nutrition, tobacco use or other systemic...... factors. We provide a brief historical overview of the local and remote cause hypotheses and discuss some key reasons why the local cause hypothesis has become dominant....

Between Transnationalism and Localization: The Pan-European TV Miniseries 14 - Diaries of the Great War

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Tea Sindbæk; Arnold-de Simine, Silke

2017-01-01

for a transnational audience. The TV-series aspired to create a new kind of historical documentary, showing history as it was experienced by ordinary people. This article compares how 14 – Diaries of the Great War was realised and received in Great Britain, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. We argue that the TV......14 –Diaries of the Great War is a transmedial project consisting of a documentary TV-series, a website, a radio programme, a photo book and a museum exhibition, produced for the centenary of World War One in 2014. The project was created by a transnational collaboration and aimed...

The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

2010-01-01

Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Event Structure and Cognitive Control

OpenAIRE

Reimer, Jason F.; Radvansky, Gabriel A.; Lorsbach, Thomas C.; Armendarez, Joseph J.

2015-01-01

Recently, a great deal of research has demonstrated that although everyday experience is continuous in nature, it is parsed into separate events. The aim of the present study was to examine whether event structure can influence the effectiveness of cognitive control. Across five experiments we varied the structure of events within the AX-CPT by shifting the spatial location of cues and probes on a computer screen. When location shifts were present, a pattern of AX-CPT performance consistent w...

Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Kenji

2015-10-28

Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

For What It's Worth: Historical Financial Bubbles and the Boundaries of Economic Rationality.

Science.gov (United States)

Deringer, William

2015-09-01

This essay is a historical and epistemological exploration of a traditionally crazy economic event: the financial bubble. Venturing into two different moments in the history of economic thinking, it investigates financial bubbles as epistemic frontiers, where rationality has reached its limits. The first half forays into late twentieth-century economics. Since 1980, an interpretive battle over the ir/rationality of bubbles has made those peculiar events, long beyond the pale of the rational, contested terrain on which the limits of rationality have been fought out. The essay's second half turns to one historical crisis, the South Sea Bubble. For contemporaries in 1720, the bubble was a different kind of epistemic frontier. As they tried to reckon what South Sea Company stock was worth, investors were confronted not with clearly rational or irrational choices but with a decidedly unruly collection of similarly plausible calculations. The story of 1720 suggests that studying historical confusion might be a profitable enterprise for scholars of the economic and epistemological past.

Examples Not Numbers: Using Historical Events To Present Regional Hazard Information And Stimulate Client Thinking In The Insurance Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Pile, J.; Switzer, A.; Gouramanis, C.; Rush, B.; Reynolds, I.; Ryrie, S.; Soria, L.

2013-12-01

Coastal hazards, including tsunami and storm surges, periodically affect many of the world's coasts. Re-insurers and insurance companies use a variety of means to understand and quantify the recurrence interval and risk of such events. Such work is done with the primary aim of placing monetary values on the risk. This collective understanding is often gleaned from the available scientific literature and commonly makes use of maps to delineate areas of risk that assist in communicating risk with clients. In this study we approached the problem of producing an integrated map of coastal hazards (storm and tsunami) for much of southeast Asia (including the Bay of Bengal and northern Australia). Initial analysis showed that assessments based on the short, partial and, for the most part, fragmentary documented history of past events in southeast Asia, would deem almost every coast on the map at high risk of coastal hazards at the regional scale. Although this may be true to a certain extent it would be unjust and unscientific to label entire coastlines 'high risk' as clearly particular sites on any coast are more susceptible to coastal hazards at the local scale. This raises the question: What is the best way to communicate risk at a regional scale without broad generalisations? Our recent collaboration with a major re-insurer lead to the creation of a new form of map (poster) for their clientele using a case study approach aimed at getting clients to think about the details of historical events in the context of localised risk. Using the pedagogical premise of 'Concept, Example, Consequence', we highlight risk in a way that will hopefully stimulate thought among practitioners and provide an alternative to the broad generalizations found in many products in the marketplace. The envisaged outcome is to enhance communication of site-specific risk assessments between stakeholders and encourage a better understanding of localised and regional risk.

Regulations and policies that limit the growth of the U.S. Great Lakes cruising market.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

The worldwide cruise industry has seen remarkable growth since the 1990s. The cruise market on the Great Lakes has lagged the worldwide growth and compared to historical records, has fallen far short of its full potential. This paper reviews the hist...

From Hitler to Hurricanes, Vietnam to Virginia Tech: Using Historical Nonfiction to Teach Rhetorical Context

Science.gov (United States)

Beckelhimer, Lisa

2010-01-01

Historical nonfiction is effective in teaching rhetoric for two main reasons. First, historical texts communicate through a real-world lens that students can understand and find familiar. Students study history and are exposed to current events through the news, school, and each other. Second, since history affects people's lives so broadly, its…

The role of the women's foreign missions in Serbia during the Great War: Transfer of medicalized technologies and the birth of biopolitics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinković Dušan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is theoretically and methodologically limited to one narrow aspect of the First World War - to the role of the women's foreign missions. The case of Serbia in this context is of particular importance not just in terms of the weight, dramatic and tragic consequences of the Great war, but because the international engagement of women in foreign missions served as a latent social mechanism - the transfer of medicalized political and social technologies and practices that at the time did not existed. In this paper we analyze the conditions and causes of the changes in social roles of women that were related to their activism, professionalism, mobilization and engagement in medical and humanitarian missions during the Great War. This historical event was also the turning point in regard to the social participation of women as well as the milestone for the changes in the culture of gender relations. The Second front as the front of missionary struggle with epidemics, contagious diseases, the sick, the wounded, poverty, hunger, refugees and orphans took more than a third of total war victims in Serbia. We conclude that social events on this front, especially with the help of the medical campaign, represented the transfer of medicalized technologies of control, medication and prevention over the population. Those were the strategic needs of Serbia at the time but also the foundations of the new biopolitics.

Identification and selection of initiating events for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the current approaches used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to identify and select accident initiating events for study in either probabilistic safety analysis or PRA. Current methods directly apply to fusion facilities as well as other types of industries, such as chemical processing and nuclear fission. These identification and selection methods include the Master Logic Diagram, historical document review, system level Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and others. A combination of the historical document review, such as Safety Analysis Reports and fusion safety studies, and the Master Logic Diagram with appropriate quality assurance reviews, is suggested for standardizing US fusion PRA effects. A preliminary set of generalized initiating events applicable to fusion facilities derived from safety document review is presented as a framework to start from for the historical document review and Master Logic Diagram approach. Fusion designers should find this list useful for their design reviews. 29 refs., 2 tabs

Identification and selection of initiating events for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the current approaches used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to identify and select accident initiating events for study in either probabilistic safety analysis or PRA. Current methods directly apply to fusion facilities as well as other types of industries, such as chemical processing and nuclear fission. These identification and selection methods include the Master Logic Diagram, historical document review, system level Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and others. A combination of the historical document review, such as Safety Analysis Reports and fusion safety studies, and the Master Logic Diagram with appropriate quality assurance reviews, is suggested for standardizing U.S. fusion PRA efforts. A preliminary set of generalized initiating events applicable to fusion facilities derived from safety document review is presented as a framework to start from for the historical document review and Master Logic Diagram approach. Fusion designers should find this list useful for their design reviews. 29 refs., 1 tab

A study on the factors that contribute to the practice of organizational behavior as coping with unexpected events. Exploration of the factors through the case survey of the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayase, Kenichi

2016-01-01

In the organizations in the face of unexpected events in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the organizational behavior which was coped with by their members was seen. It is important to prepare emergency that the backgrounds of those organizational behavior were understood. This study aimed to explore the factors that contribute to the practice of organizational behavior as coping with unexpected events through the case survey of the Great East Japan Earthquake. This study carried out literature survey and interview survey of personnel in charge of disaster prevention, BCP in the 10 organizations which coped with the earthquake. As the result, the following two outcomes were obtained. 1) Factors that contribute to the practice of the 13 kinds of the organizational behavior were clarified. 2) Discussion from the view point of the factors classification indicated the importance of the factors which are classified into normal business and features of organization. (author)

Educational Foundations Best Writings (20th Century): Biblio-Historical Essay.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Franklin

This paper lists and discusses, in historical progression, books and other writings that are considered to cover the major developments of education in the United States in the 20th century. The paper is intended to help professional educators to know better the great ideas, themes, and books that laid the foundations of education in the United…

The Cadmium Isotope Record of the Great Oxidation Event from the Turee Creek Group, Hamersley Basin, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Abouchami, W.; Busigny, V.; Philippot, P.; Galer, S. J. G.; Cheng, C.; Pecoits, E.

2016-12-01

The evolution of the ocean, atmosphere and biosphere throughout Earth's history has impacted on the biogeochemistry of some key trace metals that are of particular importance in regulating the exchange between Earth's reservoirs. Several geochemical proxies exhibit isotopic shifts that have been linked to major changes in the oxygenation levels of the ancient oceans during the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE) between 2.45 and 2.2 Ga and the Neoproterozoic Oxygenation Event at ca. 0.6 Ga. Studies of the modern marine biogeochemical cycle of the transition metal Cadmium have shown that stable Cd isotope fractionation is mainly driven by biological uptake of light Cd into marine phytoplankton in surface waters leaving behind the seawater enriched in the heavy Cd isotopes. Here we use of the potential of this novel proxy to trace ancient biological productivity which remains an enigma, particularly during the early stages of Earth history. The Turee Creek Group in the Hamersley Basin, Australia, provides a continuous stratigraphic sedimentary section covering the GOE and at least two glacial events, offering a unique opportunity to examine the changes that took place during these periods and possibly constrain the evolution, timing and onset of oxygenic photosynthesis. Stable Cd isotope data were obtained on samples from the Boolgeeda Iron Fm. (BIFs), the siliciclastic and carbonate successions of Kungara (including the Meteorite Bore Member) and the Kazputt Fm., using a double spike technique by TIMS (ThermoFisher Triton) and Cd concentrations were determined by isotope dilution. The Boolgeeda BIFs have generally low Cd concentrations varying between 8 and 50ppb, with two major excursions marked by an increase in Cd content, reaching similar levels to those in the overlying Kungarra Fm. (≥150 ppb). These variations are associated with a large range in ɛ112/110Cd values (-2 to +2), with the most negative values typically found in the organic and Cd-rich shales and

OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

2012-01-01

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

Dreams and Despair: The Early Years of the Great Depression in Gary, Indiana.

Science.gov (United States)

Indiana Historian, 1993

1993-01-01

Based on official reports, newspapers, the memories of citizens, and historical studies, a description of Gary, Indiana during the Great Depression shows how many people in Gary were affected by the Depression. Gary began to grow rapidly beginning in 1906 with the organization of two steel companies. Black, European, and Mexican immigrants came to…

Use of molecular genetics and historical records to reconstruct the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Recent advances in molecular genetics made the inference of past demographic events through the analysis of gene pools from modern populations possible. The technology uses genetic markers to provide previously unavailable resolution into questions of human evolution, migration and the historical relationship of ...

Antiquarian books as source of environment historical water data.

Science.gov (United States)

Schram, Jürgen; Schneider, Mario; Horst, Rasmus; Thieme, Hagen

2009-05-01

Historical environment considerations are inevitable also for modern environmental analysis. They alone allow evaluation of anthropogenic impact into the environment. To receive information about the historical environment situation in inhabited regions, we approached this task by examining historical well dated and locatable products of the Homo faber. The work introduced here uses books as a source of environment historical data specially for the environmental compartment of water. The paper of historical books, dated by their printing and allocated by their watermark(1) (Wasserzeichensammlung Piccard, Piccard online, Hauptstaatsarchiv Stuttgart, ) is a trap for traces of heavy metals contaminating their production water in historical times. Great amounts of water were brought into contact with the paper pulp in the historical paper mill process. The cellulose of the pulp acts as an ion exchange material for heavy metals, forming a dynamic equilibrium. A well defined pulp production process, starting with used clothes, allows estimation of the concentration of historical heavy metals (Cu(2+), Pb(2+), Zn(2+), Cd(2+)) in the production water (river water). Ancient papers from well dated books are eluted without destruction of their paper and the resulting solution is analysed by ETAAS and inverse stripping voltammetry to determine the historical impact of metals. Afterwards in a flow system the eluted paper spot is equilibrated with different concentrations of heavy metals (Cu(2+), Pb(2+), Zn(2+), Cd(2+)) to plot the adsorption isotherm of that very spot. Both data together allows a calculation of the heavy metal content of the historical river. For different waters of Germany and the Netherlands of the 16th-18th Century the heavy metal load could be estimated. The resulting concentrations were mostly similar to the level of modern surface waters, but in the case of the Dutch waters of the 17th Century, they were e.g. for Pb(2+) significantly higher than modern

Environmental project and public space rehabilitation: the great project for the historic center of Naples Unesco World Heritage Site

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Losasso

2014-05-01

Full Text Available “Historic Centre of Naples, World Heritage Site Enhancement” project has as its goal the rehabilitation of the oldest part of the historic center of Naples, one of the largest and most representative of Europe. The research reference field is placed on the level of strategic approach to the project and process management downstream of EU funding in large cities, with particular multidisciplinary relevance and urban issues of a complex nature. The scientific products of study, training and research were collected in Guidelines for the rehabilitation of public spaces and for sustainable performance of interventions on roads, walkways, squares and urban facilities.

COGNITIVE ASPECTS OF MODERN PHILOSOPHY OF HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Spartak Sh. Aytov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The aim of this work is the intelligent reconstruction and the analysis of the various methodological approaches to cognitive areas of modern philosophy of history and determines their cognitive and academic relationships with conceptual terms of such branches of historical knowledge as historical anthropology. Methodology. Methodological tools of this work are such scientific approaches as methods of philosophy of science, interdisciplinary approach, methods of source and system analysis. Scientific novelty. Reproduced and analyzed was a number of methodological approaches inherent in the natural sciences and the social - the humanities. The latter, in accordance with the principles of interdisciplinary paradigm, is very widely applied by the modern philosophy of historical knowledge, in particular in the analysis of the historical process and its main elements: the mentality, attitudes and norms of socially significant and personal behavior of individuals and societies of the past. The influence of research on various historical and historical anthropological problems such concepts implanted in the methodology of modern philosophy of history scientific disciplines as chaos theory, synergetics, mathematical biology, ethnology, social psychology, etc. Focuses on intellectual connections are used in the philosophy of history, historical knowledge interdisciplinary methodology, theory and concepts of natural science and social - humanities. They are used to analyze and understand the complex and multifaceted historical events and processes. Conclusions. The result of the analysis of the cognitive dynamics applications in the philosophy of history of conceptual approaches of a very wide range of scientific disciplines has been the allocation of a number of phases of the mining process. Each of them has special logic - methodological and socio cultural characteristics ("Data". Internal, cognitive science dynamics of this unity was not the

Cognitive Aspects of Modern Philosophy of Historical Knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Spartak Sh. Aytov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The aim of this work is the intelligent reconstruction and the analysis of the various methodological approaches to cognitive areas of modern philosophy of history and determines their cognitive and academic relationships with conceptual terms of such branches of historical knowledge as historical anthropology. Methodology. Methodological tools of this work are such scientific approaches as methods of philosophy of science, interdisciplinary approach, methods of source and system analysis. Scientific novelty. Reproduced and analyzed was a number of methodological approaches inherent in the natural sciences and the social - the humanities. The latter, in accordance with the principles of interdisciplinary paradigm, is very widely applied by the modern philosophy of historical knowledge, in particular in the analysis of the historical process and its main elements: the mentality, attitudes and norms of socially significant and personal behavior of individuals and societies of the past. The influence of research on various historical and historical anthropological problems such concepts implanted in the methodology of modern philosophy of history scientific disciplines as chaos theory, synergetics, mathematical biology, ethnology, social psychology, etc. Focuses on intellectual connections are used in the philosophy of history, historical knowledge interdisciplinary methodology, theory and concepts of natural science and social - humanities. They are used to analyze and understand the complex and multifaceted historical events and processes. Conclusions. The result of the analysis of the cognitive dynamics applications in the philosophy of history of conceptual approaches of a very wide range of scientific disciplines has been the allocation of a number of phases of the mining process. Each of them has special logic - methodological and socio cultural characteristics ("Data". Internal, cognitive science dynamics of this unity was not the

Snow and ice perturbation during historical volcanic eruptions and the formation of lahars and floods

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Jon J.; Newhall, Christopher G.

1989-10-01

Historical eruptions have produced lahars and floods by perturbing snow and ice at more than 40 volcanoes worldwide. Most of these volcanoes are located at latitudes higher than 35°; those at lower latitudes reach altitudes generally above 4000 m. Volcanic events can perturb mantles of snow and ice in at least five ways: (1) scouring and melting by flowing pyroclastic debris or blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, (2) surficial melting by lava flows, (3) basal melting of glacial ice or snow by subglacial eruptions or geothermal activity, (4) ejection of water by eruptions through a crater lake, and (5) deposition of tephra fall. Historical records of volcanic eruptions at snow-clad volcanoes show the following: (1) Flowing pyroclastic debris (pyroclastic flows and surges) and blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris are the most common volcanic events that generate lahars and floods; (2) Surficial lava flows generally cannot melt snow and ice rapidly enough to form large lahars or floods; (3) Heating the base of a glacier or snowpack by subglacial eruptions or by geothermal activity can induce basal melting that may result in ponding of water and lead to sudden outpourings of water or sediment-rich debris flows; (4) Tephra falls usually alter ablation rates of snow and ice but generally produce little meltwater that results in the formation of lahars and floods; (5) Lahars and floods generated by flowing pyroclastic debris, blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, or basal melting of snow and ice commonly have volumes that exceed 105 m3. The glowing lava (pyroclastic flow) which flowed with force over ravines and ridges...gathered in the basin quickly and then forced downwards. As a result, tremendously wide and deep pathways in the ice and snow were made and produced great streams of water (Wolf 1878).

TECTONIC AND SEISMOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE GREAT JAPAN EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 11, 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan N. Tikhonov

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The publication presents a review of the structure and seismotectonic features of the Pacific margin of the NorthEastern Honshu Island on the basis of data from seismic reflection and CDP, drilling and detailed seismic studies in view of the megaearthquake (Mw=9.0 which occurred in Japan on March 11, 2011. The megaearthquake is discussed in terms of its position in the succession of the strongest events (M≥7.6 in the area under study within the historical period and in the recent timeline. It is suggested that the period of recurrence is about 40 years for great events and about 1000+ years for megaearthquakes. A number of facts suggesting a probability of a planetaryscale earthquake in the Honshu Island region are revealed. Specifically, a seismic gap with a total length of about 800 km is determined in the study area. It is located southward of 39° north latitude has already manifested aftershocks of the megaearthquake of March 11, 2011. It is probable that the megaearthquake was related to the deep thrust along the Benioff zone and the Oyashio nappe being its structural cap rock in the middle Pacific slope. The sequence of its aftershocks is compared with those of the SumatraAndaman (Mw=9.3, 2004 and Simushir (Mw=8.3, 2006 earthquakes. It is established that development of the aftershock sequences of the first and second events was very similar in time, and development of the areas of aftershock epicentres of the first and third earthquakes is similar in space. The above similarities give grounds to suggest that an aftershock (M~8.0 is possible with a relative shifting from the main shock towards the deep trench.

Significant U.S. 20th Century Education Books: Biblio-Historical Essay.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Franklin

Presented in historical context, the books listed in this annotated bibliography offer insights into professional education concerns and can help teachers know about the great ideas and themes of their field, and what the best and most provocative books are today. The bibliography begins with books that list and annotate topically selected best…

The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows

Keeping "Every Catholic Child in a Catholic School" during the Great Depression, 1933-1939

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Ann Marie

2007-01-01

The quest for state and federal aid for Catholic schools is not new. Concerns regarding excessive entanglement, mission dilution, and external control have been voiced for decades. A particularly instructive historical period on this issue is the era of the Great Depression. Because of widespread economic hardship across sectors, Catholic leaders…

Historical evidence of faulting in Eastern Anatolia and Northern Syria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. P. Melville

1995-06-01

Full Text Available Historical data show that like the North Anatolian fault zone, which was delineated by a series of earthquakes during this century from east to west, so was the conjugate Eastern Anatolian fault zone delineated from the northeast to the southwest by a succession of large earthquakes in earlier times, with a major event at its junction with the Dead Sea fault system. This event was associated with surface faulting and occurred in a region seismically quiescent for nearly two centuries.

Introduction to thematic collection "Historical and geological studies of earthquakes"

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Kenji; Wang, Jian; Hammerl, Christa; Malik, Javed N.

2017-12-01

This thematic collection contains eight papers mostly presented at the 2016 AOGS meeting in Beijing. Four papers describe historical earthquake studies in Europe, Japan, and China; one paper uses modern instrumental data to examine the effect of giant earthquakes on the seismicity rate; and three papers describe paleoseismological studies using tsunami deposit in Japan, marine terraces in Philippines, and active faults in Himalayas. Hammerl (Geosci Lett 4:7, 2017) introduced historical seismological studies in Austria, starting from methodology which is state of the art in most European countries, followed by a case study for an earthquake of July 17, 1670 in Tyrol. Albini and Rovida (Geosci Lett 3:30, 2016) examined 114 historical records for the earthquake on April 6, 1667 on the east coast of the Adriatic Sea, compiled 37 Macroseismic Data Points, and estimated the epicenter and the size of the earthquake. Matsu'ura (Geosci Lett 4:3, 2017) summarized historical earthquake studies in Japan which resulted in about 8700 Intensity Data Points, assigned epicenters for 214 earthquakes between AD 599 and 1872, and estimated focal depth and magnitudes for 134 events. Wang et al. (Geosci Lett 4:4, 2017) introduced historical seismology in China, where historical earthquake archives include about 15,000 sources, and parametric catalogs include about 1000 historical earthquakes between 2300 BC and AD 1911. Ishibe et al. (Geosci Lett 4:5, 2017) tested the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three giant (M 9) earthquakes that occurred in recent years, and found that at least the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes caused the seismicity rate change. Ishimura (2017) re-estimated the ages of 11 tsunami deposits in the last 4000 years along the Sanriku coast of northern Japan and found that the average recurrence interval of those tsunamis as 350-390 years. Ramos et al. (2017) studied 1000-year-old marine terraces on the west coast of Luzon Island, Philippines

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Investigations On Historic Centers In Seismic Areas: Guidelines For The Diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Binda, Luigia; Cardani, Giuliana; Modena, Claudio; Valluzzi, Maria Rosa; Saisi, Antonella

2008-01-01

After the earthquake that hit central Italy in 1979, many small historic centers were restored. A subsequent seismic event occurred in 1997 in Umbria-Marche regions revealed that some techniques used in the previous interventions were not successful due to low durability of new materials and/or incompatibility between the new and the existing materials and structures. An extensive investigation on four small typical historic centers in Umbria was carried out. The objectives of the research were: (i) to define a methodology for the vulnerability analysis of historic buildings at the level of the historic centre, (ii) to collect information on the effectiveness of the repair techniques both traditional and new, (iii) to set up Databases storing the information useful to prepare rescue plans, (iv) to use the collected knowledge for the implementation of reliable models for the vulnerability analysis, (v) to prepare guidelines for investigation and vulnerability analysis

What was the population of Great Zimbabwe (CE1000 – 1800)?

Science.gov (United States)

Moultrie, Thomas; Bandama, Foreman; Dandara, Collett; Manyanga, Munyaradzi

2017-01-01

The World Heritage Site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most iconic and largest archaeological settlements in Africa. It was the hub of direct and indirect trade which internally connected various areas of southern Africa, and externally linked them with East Africa and the Near and Far East. Archaeologists believe that at its peak, Great Zimbabwe had a fully urban population of 20,000 people concentrated in approximately 2.9 square kilometres (40 percent of 720 ha). This translates to a population density of 6,897, which is comparable with that of some of the most populous regions of the world in the 21st century. Here, we combine archaeological, ethnographic and historical evidence with ecological and statistical modelling to demonstrate that the total population estimate for the site’s nearly 800-year occupational duration (CE1000–1800), after factoring in generational succession, is unlikely to have exceeded 10,000 people. This conclusion is strongly firmed up by the absence of megamiddens at the site, the chronological differences between several key areas of the settlement traditionally assumed to be coeval, and the historically documented low populations recorded for the sub-continent between CE1600 and 1950. PMID:28614397

OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2012-09-20

The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

Host Event Based Network Monitoring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jonathan Chugg

2013-01-01

The purpose of INL’s research on this project is to demonstrate the feasibility of a host event based network monitoring tool and the effects on host performance. Current host based network monitoring tools work on polling which can miss activity if it occurs between polls. Instead of polling, a tool could be developed that makes use of event APIs in the operating system to receive asynchronous notifications of network activity. Analysis and logging of these events will allow the tool to construct the complete real-time and historical network configuration of the host while the tool is running. This research focused on three major operating systems commonly used by SCADA systems: Linux, WindowsXP, and Windows7. Windows 7 offers two paths that have minimal impact on the system and should be seriously considered. First is the new Windows Event Logging API, and, second, Windows 7 offers the ALE API within WFP. Any future work should focus on these methods.

BDHI: a French national database on historical floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lang Michel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the various features of the BDHI database (objects, functions, content. This document database provides document sheets on historical floods from various sources: technical reports from water authorities, scientific accounts (meteorology, hydrology, hydraulics..., post-disaster reports, newspapers or book extracts... It is complemented by fact sheets on flood events, which provide a summary text on significant past floods: location, date and duration, type of flood, extent, probability, adverse consequences A search engine is provided for information search based on time (specific date or period, on location (district, basin, city or thematic topic (document type, flood type, flood magnitude, flood impact.... We conclude by some future challenges in relation to the next cycle of the Floods Directive (2016-2022, with the inventory of past floods which had significant adverse impacts. What are the flood events that need to be integrated (new ones later than 2011 and/or previous floods that had not yet been selected? How can the process of historical data integration be extended at a local scale, with an adequate process of validation? How to promote the use of BDHI database in relation with the development of the culture of risk?

A Synthesis of Equilibrium and Historical Models of Landform Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Renwick, William H.

1985-01-01

The synthesis of two approaches that can be used in teaching geomorphology is described. The equilibrium approach explains landforms and landform change in terms of equilibrium between landforms and controlling processes. The historical approach draws on climatic geomorphology to describe the effects of Quaternary climatic and tectonic events on…

Urban Science Education: Examining Current Issues through a Historical Lens

Science.gov (United States)

McLaughlin, Cheryl A.

2014-01-01

This paper reviews and synthesizes urban science education studies published between 2000 and 2013 with a view to identifying current challenges faced by both teachers and students in urban classrooms. Additionally, this paper considers the historical events that have shaped the conditions, bureaucracies, and interactions of urban institutions.…

Using Historical Empathy to Excite Students about the Study of History: Can You Empathize with Neville Chamberlain?

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Stuart

1999-01-01

Describes a historical empathy lesson that requires high school students to understand, explain, and evaluate why Neville Chamberlain followed the policy of appeasement in his negotiations with Adolf Hitler. Defines historical empathy and includes an appendix with list of key events, student investigation sheet, and resource materials. (CMK)

Towards a Participatory Memory: Multi-platform Storytelling in Historical Television Documentary

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hagedoorn, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341477826

2015-01-01

This article explores strategies used by television programme makers in the multi-platform era, principally concerning personal memories of historical events. The availability and use of televisual materials has increased in the current ‘post-scarcity culture’, especially through the digitization of

In search of colonial El Niño events and a brief history of meteorology in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Terneus

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This study shows a brief overview of the development of meteorology in Ecuador from historical documentation of climatic events in the Colonial era through to modern data collection. In the colonial era (16th century-1824, historical documents of rogation ceremonies and municipal proceedings, from the Quito area, provide a rich source of climate information, including El Niño events. Our preliminary findings show that very few of the historically documented catastrophes and other marked environmental events in Quito match known El Niño episodes. Independently, the first meteorological data was collected in Ecuador (beginning with La Condamine in 1738, followed by the earliest attempts to build a national meteorological network in the 1860's, linked closely to President Gabriel García Moreno and the Jesuits. The 1925 El Niño phenomenon was the first important meteorological episode recorded with scientific instrumentation in Ecuador, with newspapers providing complementary archives about the extreme impact of this event.

In search of colonial El Niño events and a brief history of meteorology in Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Terneus, A.; Gioda, A.

2006-02-01

This study shows a brief overview of the development of meteorology in Ecuador from historical documentation of climatic events in the Colonial era through to modern data collection. In the colonial era (16th century-1824), historical documents of rogation ceremonies and municipal proceedings, from the Quito area, provide a rich source of climate information, including El Niño events. Our preliminary findings show that very few of the historically documented catastrophes and other marked environmental events in Quito match known El Niño episodes. Independently, the first meteorological data was collected in Ecuador (beginning with La Condamine in 1738), followed by the earliest attempts to build a national meteorological network in the 1860's, linked closely to President Gabriel García Moreno and the Jesuits. The 1925 El Niño phenomenon was the first important meteorological episode recorded with scientific instrumentation in Ecuador, with newspapers providing complementary archives about the extreme impact of this event.

Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2012-01-01

Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

Observing Semi-Arid Ecoclimates across Mountain Gradients in the Great Basin, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Strachan, Scotty

Observation of climate and ecohydrological variables in mountain systems is a necessary (if challenging) endeavor for modern society. Water resources are often intimately tied to mountains, and high elevation environments are frequently home to unique landscapes and biota with limited geographical distributions. This is especially true in the temperate and semi-arid mountains of the western United States, and specifically the Great Basin. Stark contrasts in annual water balance and ecological populations are visible across steep elevational gradients in the region; and yet the bulk of our historical knowledge of climate and related processes comes from lowland observations. Interpolative models that strive to estimate conditions in mountains using existing datasets are often found to be inaccurate, making future projections of mountain climate and ecosystem response suspect. This study details the results of high-resolution topographically-diverse ecohydrological monitoring, and describes the character and seasonality of basic climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation as well as their impact on soil moisture and vegetation during the 2012-2015 drought sequence. Relationships of topography (elevation/aspect) to daily and seasonal temperatures are shown. Tests of the PRISM temperature model are performed at the large watershed scale, revealing magnitudes, modes, and potential sources of bias that could dramatically affect derivative scientific conclusions. A new method of precipitation phase partitioning to detect and quantify frozen precipitation on a sub-daily basis is described. Character of precipitation from sub-daily to annual scales is quantified across all major Great Basin vegetation/elevation zones, and the relationship of elevation to precipitation phase, intensity, and amount is explored. Water-stress responses of Great Basin conifers including Pinus flexilis, Pinus longaeva, and Pinus ponderosa are directly observed, showing potential

A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

2017-04-01

Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

Historical trends in tank 241-SY-101 waste temperatures and levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antoniak, Z.I.

1993-09-01

The gas release and fluctuating level of the waste in tank 241-SY-101 have prompted more detailed interest in its historical behavior, in hopes of achieving a better understanding of its current status. To examine the historical behavior, essentially all of the tank waste temperature and level data record has been retrieved, examined, and plotted in various ways. To aid in interpreting the data, the depth of the non-convective waste layer was estimated by using a least-squares Chebyshev approximation to the temperatures. This report documents the retrieval critical examination, and graphic presentation of 241-SY-101 temperature and waste level histories. The graphic presentations clearly indicate a tank cooling trend that has become precipitous since late 1991. The plots also clearly show the decreasing frequency of waste gas release events, increasing height of the non-convective layer, and larger level drops per event

Information field for historical research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sviatets, Yu. A.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the main information collision of historical knowledge, which consists in physical inaccessibility of events and phenomena of the past as an object of historical science for a historian as an investigator. The aim of the research is to formulate and discuss a working hypothesis about the information field of historical science. The article provides an analytical background on the main ideas and approaches in the field of modern information field theory. The author carries out the projection of the main provisions of the information field theory on historical research. It is shown that the information field is a really existing information carrier that provides its acquisition, transportation, storage and visualization, as well as provides information and knowledge recorded in various forms, realizes cultural communications. One of the manifestations of such a culture is the sign systems, which determine certain contexts. Signs are characterized by polysemy. Despite artificial origin, semiotic reality is objective. Simultaneously, signs provide intellectual activity of people. Mental signs in the historical process of use by society acquire additional meanings, generating new symbols. Polysemy shapes the problem of epistemological uncertainty of two stages – identifying the problem and solving it. Historians as researchers resort to cognitive models, which, thanks to the translational function, ensure the transfer of information from the known to the unknown. One of the explanations of polysemy is the theory of conceptual integration, according to which the structures of the original mental spaces are projected onto a new, constructed, mental space – blend. This is the result of a personʼs intellectual ability to create new meanings on the basis of the available ones. Since signs and symbols are multi-valued, they form a multiplicity of retrospective scenarios of historical research at the stage of problem formulation

Historical seismicity in Morocco: methodological aspects and cases of multidisciplinary evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elmrabet, T.; Ramdani, M.; Tadili, B.

1989-05-01

Within the framework of a cooperative agreement between Sofratome and the Office National d'Electricite of Morocco, the Centre National de la Recherche of Rabat, with the collaboration of the French Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, was put in charge of compiling a revised catalogue of the historical seismicity of Morocco. The method adopted calls for the participation of several different disciplines in view of situating each earthquake in its own geographical and historical context. The approach entails, during the first stage involving primarily the historian, gathering together the original sources of data and subjecting them to a critical analysis in order to assess their reliability. The second stage consists in interpreting the information so as to define those earthquake characteristics that are requisite to seismic hazard studies. This latter evaluation must be the fruit of a multidisciplinary effort. This is particularly true for earthquakes of past centuries, the observations of which are frequently incompatible or biased and accordingly need to be substantiated by referring to information of a varying nature and, wherever possible, calibrated using accurate data from recent events. In a number of instances, duplications are encountered, or lumped effects for distinct events due to calendar misreckonings, erroneous copying, or misconceptions relative to the geological or historical context. A particularly significant example of the interference of these diverse aspects is afforded by the assessment of the destructive effects in Morocco of the 1755 'Lisbon' earthquake: a method is proposed for calibrating its intensities by comparing them with those of the recent 1969 event of similar origin

Great Lakes rivermouths: a primer for managers

Science.gov (United States)

Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul; Pebbles, Victoria; Larson, James; Seelbach, Paul

2013-01-01

Between the North American Great Lakes and their tributaries are the places where the confluence of river and lake waters creates a distinct ecosystem: the rivermouth ecosystem. Human development has often centered around these rivermouths, in part, because they provide a rich array of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, centuries of intense human activity have led to substantial pressures on, and alterations to, these ecosystems, often diminishing or degrading their ecological functions and associated ecological services. Many Great Lakes rivermouths are the focus of intense restoration efforts. For example, 36 of the active Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are rivermouths or areas that include one or more rivermouths. Historically, research of rivermouth ecosystems has been piecemeal, focused on the Great Lakes proper or on the upper reaches of tributaries, with little direct study of the rivermouth itself. Researchers have been divided among disciplines, agencies and institutions; and they often work independently and use disparate venues to communicate their work. Management has also been fragmented with a focus on smaller, localized, sub-habitat units and socio-political or economic elements, rather than system-level consideration. This Primer presents the case for a more holistic approach to rivermouth science and management that can enable restoration of ecosystem services with multiple benefits to humans and the Great Lakes ecosystem. A conceptual model is presented with supporting text that describes the structures and processes common to all rivermouths, substantiating the case for treating these ecosystems as an identifiable class.1 Ecological services provided by rivermouths and changes in how humans value those services over time are illustrated through case studies of two Great Lakes rivermouths—the St. Louis River and the Maumee River. Specific ecosystem services are identified in italics throughout this Primer and follow definitions described

1964 Great Alaska Earthquake: a photographic tour of Anchorage, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Thoms, Evan E.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Anderson, Rebecca D.; McGimsey, Robert G.

2014-01-01

On March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m., a magnitude 9.2 earthquake, the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history, struck southcentral Alaska (fig. 1). The Great Alaska Earthquake (also known as the Good Friday Earthquake) occurred at a pivotal time in the history of earth science, and helped lead to the acceptance of plate tectonic theory (Cox, 1973; Brocher and others, 2014). All large subduction zone earthquakes are understood through insights learned from the 1964 event, and observations and interpretations of the earthquake have influenced the design of infrastructure and seismic monitoring systems now in place. The earthquake caused extensive damage across the State, and triggered local tsunamis that devastated the Alaskan towns of Whittier, Valdez, and Seward. In Anchorage, the main cause of damage was ground shaking, which lasted approximately 4.5 minutes. Many buildings could not withstand this motion and were damaged or collapsed even though their foundations remained intact. More significantly, ground shaking triggered a number of landslides along coastal and drainage valley bluffs underlain by the Bootlegger Cove Formation, a composite of facies containing variably mixed gravel, sand, silt, and clay which were deposited over much of upper Cook Inlet during the Late Pleistocene (Ulery and others, 1983). Cyclic (or strain) softening of the more sensitive clay facies caused overlying blocks of soil to slide sideways along surfaces dipping by only a few degrees. This guide is the document version of an interactive web map that was created as part of the commemoration events for the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake. It is accessible at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Science Center website: http://alaska.usgs.gov/announcements/news/1964Earthquake/. The website features a map display with suggested tour stops in Anchorage, historical photographs taken shortly after the earthquake, repeat photography of selected sites, scanned documents

Phylogenetic analyses provide insights into the historical biogeography and evolution of Brachyrhaphis fishes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingley, Spencer J; Reina, Ruth G; Bermingham, Eldredge; Johnson, Jerald B

2015-08-01

The livebearing fish genus Brachyrhaphis (Poeciliidae) has become an increasingly important model in evolution and ecology research, yet the phylogeny of this group is not well understood, nor has it been examined thoroughly using modern phylogenetic methods. Here, we present the first comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Brachyrhaphis by using four molecular markers (3mtDNA, 1nucDNA) to infer relationships among species in this genus. We tested the validity of this genus as a monophyletic group using extensive outgroup sampling based on recent phylogenetic hypotheses of Poeciliidae. We also tested the validity of recently described species of Brachyrhaphis that are part of the B. episcopi complex in Panama. Finally, we examined the impact of historical events on diversification of Brachyrhaphis, and made predictions regarding the role of different ecological environments on evolutionary diversification where known historical events apparently fail to explain speciation. Based on our results, we reject the monophyly of Brachyrhaphis, and question the validity of two recently described species (B. hessfeldi and B. roswithae). Historical biogeography of Brachyrhaphis generally agrees with patterns found in other freshwater taxa in Lower Central America, which show that geological barriers frequently predict speciation. Specifically, we find evidence in support of an 'island' model of Lower Central American formation, which posits that the nascent isthmus was partitioned by several marine connections before linking North and South America. In some cases where historic events (e.g., vicariance) fail to explain allopatric species breaks in Brachyrhaphis, ecological processes (e.g., divergent predation environments) offer additional insight into our understanding of phylogenetic diversification in this group. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Newspaper archives + text mining = rich sources of historical geo-spatial data

Science.gov (United States)

Yzaguirre, A.; Smit, M.; Warren, R.

2016-04-01

Newspaper archives are rich sources of cultural, social, and historical information. These archives, even when digitized, are typically unstructured and organized by date rather than by subject or location, and require substantial manual effort to analyze. The effort of journalists to be accurate and precise means that there is often rich geo-spatial data embedded in the text, alongside text describing events that editors considered to be of sufficient importance to the region or the world to merit column inches. A regional newspaper can add over 100,000 articles to its database each year, and extracting information from this data for even a single country would pose a substantial Big Data challenge. In this paper, we describe a pilot study on the construction of a database of historical flood events (location(s), date, cause, magnitude) to be used in flood assessment projects, for example to calibrate models, estimate frequency, establish high water marks, or plan for future events in contexts ranging from urban planning to climate change adaptation. We then present a vision for extracting and using the rich geospatial data available in unstructured text archives, and suggest future avenues of research.

Historical intensity VIII earthquakes along the Rhone valley (Valais, Switzerland): primary and secondary effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritsche, S.; Faeh, D.; Schwarz-Zanetti, G.

2012-06-15

In recent years the upper Rhone Valley has been one of the most intensively investigated regions by the Swiss Seismological Service. The high seismicity in the region encourages research in the seismological field and one main focus has been historical seismology. This report presents the state of the art of our historical investigations by giving an overview of the effects of four damaging earthquakes with intensity larger than VII, for which a fairly large number of documents could be found and analyzed. The overview includes the events of 1584 (Aigle, epicentral intensity VIII), 1755 (Brig, epicentral intensity VIII), 1855 (Visp, epicentral intensity VIII), and 1946 (Sierre, epicentral intensity VIII for the main shock and intensity VII for the largest aftershock). The paper focuses mainly on primary and secondary effects in the epicentral region, providing the key data and a general characterization of the event. Generally, primary effects such as the reaction of the population and impact on buildings took more focus in the past. Thus building damage is more frequently described in historic documents. However, we also found a number of sources describing secondary effects such as landslides, snow avalanches, and liquefaction. Since the sources may be useful, we include citations of these documents. The 1584 Aigle event, for example, produced exceptional movements in the Lake of Geneva, which can be explained by an expanded sub aquatic slide with resultant tsunami and seiche. The strongest of the aftershocks of the 1584 event triggered a destructive landslide covering the villages Corbeyrier and Yvorne, Vaud. All macroseismic data on the discussed events are accessible through the web page of the Swiss Seismological Service (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch). (authors)

Comparative Analysis of the Representations of the Great Patriotic War: Generational Aspects (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus

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Владимир Михайлович Филиппов

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian peoples` (who has been considered fraternal for a long time representations of the modern world currently due to many factors are subjected to complex processes of transformation. So the importance of the historical period of the Great Patriotic War in the life of all three peoples, the memory of which has an important means of confrontation western propaganda, is certainly true. The article presents the results of the study of Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian students’ and their parents’ representations of the Great Patriotic War. The study was being held in Peoples’ friendship University of Russia, immediately after the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Great Victory.

The Premises of the Event. Are architectural competitions incubators for events?

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Loïse Lenne

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Around 1980, two important competitions were launched on both sides of the Channel. One led to the Grande Arche in La Défense (Johann Otto von Spreckelsen, 1982–1989 and the other to the Lloyd’s building of London (Richard Rogers Partnership, 1977–1986. Recalling the history of these two projects, we will try, in this article, to show how the programmes, their formulation, the methods used and, above all, the culture of the various actors influenced both the decisions and the built results. At the end of the paper, we propose to see these buildings as events. Based on the analysis of these competitions, we will show that these buildings can then be considered as belonging to two different categories – historical and spatial event – that we will define.

An interactive program on digitizing historical seismograms

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yihe; Xu, Tao

2014-02-01

Retrieving information from analog seismograms is of great importance since they are considered as the unique sources that provide quantitative information of historical earthquakes. We present an algorithm for automatic digitization of the seismograms as an inversion problem that forms an interactive program using Matlab® GUI. The program integrates automatic digitization with manual digitization and users can easily switch between the two modalities and carry out different combinations for the optimal results. Several examples about applying the interactive program are given to illustrate the merits of the method.

Great day: H. M. Queen Elizabeth II at the Calder Hall opening

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1956-01-01

The opening of the world's first nuclear power station, Calder Hall, was a major event in the history of post-war Britain. This film describes the construction and design of the station and its opening by the Queen. It is also an interesting historical document reflecting the beliefs and aspirations of the time. (author).

Great day: H.M. Queen Elizabeth II at the Calder Hall opening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1956-01-01

The opening of the world's first nuclear power station, Calder Hall, was a major event in the history of post-war Britain. This film describes the construction and design of the station and its opening by the Queen. It is also an interesting historical document reflecting the beliefs and aspirations of the time. (author)

Hydrologic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Associated With the Increased Role of Fire on Western Landscapes, Great Basin, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Spaeth, K. E.; Hardegree, S. P.; Clark, P. E.; Moffet, C. A.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Boll, J.

2010-12-01

Landscape-scale plant community transitions and altered fire regimes across Great Basin, USA, rangelands have increased the likelihood of post-fire flooding and erosion events. These hazards are particularly concerning for western urban centers along the rangeland urban-wildland interface where natural resources, property, and human life are at risk. Extensive conversion of 4-7 million hectares of Great Basin shrub-steppe to cheatgrass-dominated (Bromus tectorum) grasslands has increased the frequency and size of wildland fires within these ecosystems. Fire frequencies have increased by more than an order of magnitude and occur on 3-10 year intervals across much of the cheatgrass-dominated landscape. Extensive tree (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) encroachment into wooded shrub-steppe has increased heavy fuel loads. Ladder fuels in these ecosystems promote rapidly spreading, high-intensity and severe ground-surface-crown fires. These altered fuel structures across much of the historical Great Basin shrub-steppe have initiated an upsurge in large rangeland wildfires and have increased the spatial and temporal vulnerability of these landscapes to amplified runoff and erosion. Resource and infrastructure damages, and loss of life have been reported due to flooding following recent large-scale burning of western rangelands and dry forests. We present a decade of post-fire rangeland hydrologic research that provides a foundation for conceptual modeling of the hydrologic impacts associated with an increased role of rangeland wildfires. We highlight advancements in predictive tools to address this large-scale phenomenon and discuss vital research voids requiring attention. Our geographic emphasis is the Great Basin Region, however, these concepts likely extend elsewhere given the increased role of fire in many geographic regions and across rangeland-to-forest ecotones in the western United States.

Impact of High-Reliability Education on Adverse Event Reporting by Registered Nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

McFarland, Diane M; Doucette, Jeffrey N

Adverse event reporting is one strategy to identify risks and improve patient safety, but, historically, adverse events are underreported by registered nurses (RNs) because of fear of retribution and blame. A program was provided on high reliability to examine whether education would impact RNs' willingness to report adverse events. Although the findings were not statistically significant, they demonstrated a positive impact on adverse event reporting and support the need to create a culture of high reliability.

Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus).

Science.gov (United States)

Tsangaras, Kyriakos; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Ishida, Yasuko; Helgen, Kristofer M; Roca, Alfred L; Greenwood, Alex D

2012-10-24

The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas.

Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources

Science.gov (United States)

Alberola, Armando; Barriendos, Mariano; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Pérez-Morales, Alfredo; Balasch, Carles; Castelltort, Xavier; Mazón, Jordi; Pino, David; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Tuset, Jordi

2016-04-01

Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources Armando Alberola, Barriendos, M., Gil-Guirado, S., Pérez Morales, A., Balasch, C., Castelltort, X., Mazón, J., Pino, D., Ruiz-Bellet, J.L., Tuset, J. Historical flood events in eastern spanish coast have been studied by different research groups and projects. Complexity of flood processes, involving atmospheric, surface and human factors, is not easily understandable when long time series are required. Present analysis from PREDIFLOOD Project Consortium defines a new step of flood event databases: Improved access to primary (documentary) and secondary (bibliographical) sources, data collection for all possible locations where floods are detected, and improved system of classification (Barriendos et al., 2014). A first analysis is applied to 8 selected flood series. Long chronologies from PREDIFLOOD Project for Catalonia region (Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Tortosa). In addition, to cover all sector of spanish mediterranean coast, we introduce Valencia city in Turia River basin. South Eastern sector is cover with Murcia and Caravaca cities, Segura River basin. Extension of area under study required contributions of research teams experienced in work of documentary primary sources (Alberola, 2006; Gil-Guirado, 2013). Flood frequency analysis for long scale periods show natural climatic oscillations into so-called Little Ice Age. There are general patterns, affecting most of basins, but also some local anomalies or singularities. To explain these differences and analogies it is not enough to use purely climatic factors. In this way, we analyze human factors that have been able to influence the variability of floods along last 6 centuries (demography, hydraulic infrastructures, urban development...). This approach improves strongly understanding of mechanisms producing

FEATURES AND PROBLEMS WITH HISTORICAL GREAT EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

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Lobkovsky L.

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The present study examines the historical earthquakes and tsunamis of 21 July 365 and of 9 February 1948 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Numerical simulations were performed for the tsunamis generated by underwater seismic sources in frames of the keyboard model, as well as for their propagation in the Mediterranean Sea basin. Similarly examined were three different types of seismic sources at the same localization near the Island of Crete for the earthquake of 21 July 365, and of two different types of seismic sources for the earthquake of 9 February 1948 near the Island of Karpathos. For each scenario, the tsunami wave field characteristics from the earthquake source to coastal zones in Mediterranean Sea’s basin were obtained and histograms were constructed showing the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights, along a 5-m isobath. Comparison of tsunami wave characteristics for all the above mentioned scenarios, demonstrates that underwater earthquakes with magnitude M > 7 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea basin, can generate waves with coastal runup up to 9 m.

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-01-01

Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wetter, Oliver [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Section of Economic, Social and Environmental History (WSU)

2017-07-01

Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

A Historical Analysis of the Relationship of Faith and Science and its Significance within Education

Science.gov (United States)

Yegge, John G.

Science curriculum and pedagogy are at the center of a centuries-long debate concerning the appropriate relationship of faith and science. The difficulties that science educators face seem to be based in misinformation about the historical roots of this conflict. To address that conflict, the goals of this research were to separate myth from reality and to provide a necessary context to the current tensions that are disrupting science pedagogy and curriculum content within American public schools. Working within a theoretical framework of historical literacy, this qualitative, historical analysis was a comprehensive examination of the relationship of faith and science from ancient times through the Renascence to the emergence and development of Darwinism. The historical approach methodology was utilized as a means to document the systematic examination of past events, in order to illuminate and interpret the meaning of those events. The historical record revealed that science and religion are not necessarily incompatible and that the early Christian religion provided a fertile environment in which modern science could emerge. Also noted were many instances where the record was inconsistent with what educators have commonly taught as historical fact. Finally, the complex sources of tension between modern fundamentalist Christianity and Darwinism, which has appeared as a flashpoint in public discourse within science education, were examined in depth. Based on this analysis, the study includes recommendations for educators in their approach to addressing these challenges and teaching science. This analysis can produce positive social change for educators and their students, as this information is advanced as a means to enhance historical literacy among educators and their students.

BIM applied in historical building documentation and refurbishing

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, H.-M.; Yang, W.-B.; Yen, Y.-N.

2015-08-01

Historical building conservation raises two important issues which are documentation and refurbishing. For the recording and documentation, we already have developed 3d laser scanner and such photogrammetry technology those represent a freeze object of virtual reality by digital documentation. On the other hand, the refurbished engineering of historic building is a challenge for conservation heritage which are not only reconstructing the damage part but also restoring tangible cultural heritage. 3D digital cultural heritage models has become a topic of great interest in recent years. One reason for this is the more widespread use of laser scanning and photogrammetry for recording cultural heritage sites. These technologies have made it possible to efficiently and accurately record complex structures remotely that would not have been possible with previous survey methods. In addition to these developments, digital information systems are evolving for the presentation, analysis and archival of heritage documentation.

Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587-1996)

Science.gov (United States)

Beauval, Céline; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, José; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

2010-06-01

The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw 8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (~2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ~6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587-1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mw between 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity >=VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity >=III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (+/-1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding

Historical analysis of Newfoundland dog fur colour genetics

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J. Bondeson

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This article makes use of digitized historic newspapers to analyze Newfoundland dog fur colour genetics, and fur colour variations over time. The results indicate that contrary to the accepted view, the ‘Solid’ gene was introduced into the British population of Newfoundland dogs in the 1840s. Prior to that time, the dogs were white and black (Landseer or white and brown, and thus spotted/spotted homozygotes. Due to ‘Solid’ being dominant over ‘spotted’, and selective breeding, today the majority of Newfoundland dogs are solid black. Whereas small white marks on the chest and/or paw appears to be a random event, the historical data supports the existence of an ‘Irish spotted’ fur colour pattern, with white head blaze, breast, paws and tail tip, in spotted/spotted homozygotes.

STSHV a teleinformatic system for historic seismology in Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

Choy, J. E.; Palme, C.; Altez, R.; Aranguren, R.; Guada, C.; Silva, J.

2013-05-01

From 1997 on, when the first "Jornadas Venezolanas de Sismicidad Historica" took place, a big interest awoke in Venezuela to organize the available information related to historic earthquakes. At that moment only existed one published historic earthquake catalogue, that from Centeno Grau published the first time in 1949. That catalogue had no references about the sources of information. Other catalogues existed but they were internal reports for the petroleum companies and therefore difficult to access. In 2000 Grases et al reedited the Centeno-Grau catalogue, it ended up in a new, very complete catalogue with all the sources well referenced and updated. The next step to organize historic seismicity data was, from 2004 to 2008, the creation of the STSHV (Sistema de teleinformacion de Sismologia Historica Venezolana, http://sismicidad.hacer.ula.ve ). The idea was to bring together all information about destructive historic earthquakes in Venezuela in one place in the internet so it could be accessed easily by a widespread public. There are two ways to access the system. The first one, selecting an earthquake or a list of earthquakes, and the second one, selecting an information source or a list of sources. For each earthquake there is a summary of general information and additional materials: a list with the source parameters published by different authors, a list with intensities assessed by different authors, a list of information sources, a short text summarizing the historic situation at the time of the earthquake and a list of pictures if available. There are searching facilities for the seismic events and dynamic maps can be created. The information sources are classified in: books, handwritten documents, transcription of handwritten documents, documents published in books, journals and congress memories, newspapers, seismologic catalogues and electronic sources. There are facilities to find specific documents or lists of documents with common characteristics

Exploring historical trends using taxonomic name metadata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schenk Ryan

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Authority and year information have been attached to taxonomic names since Linnaean times. The systematic structure of taxonomic nomenclature facilitates the ability to develop tools that can be used to explore historical trends that may be associated with taxonomy. Results From the over 10.7 million taxonomic names that are part of the uBio system 4, approximately 3 million names were identified to have taxonomic authority information from the years 1750 to 2004. A pipe-delimited file was then generated, organized according to a Linnaean hierarchy and by years from 1750 to 2004, and imported into an Excel workbook. A series of macros were developed to create an Excel-based tool and a complementary Web site to explore the taxonomic data. A cursory and speculative analysis of the data reveals observable trends that may be attributable to significant events that are of both taxonomic (e.g., publishing of key monographs and societal importance (e.g., world wars. The findings also help quantify the number of taxonomic descriptions that may be made available through digitization initiatives. Conclusion Temporal organization of taxonomic data can be used to identify interesting biological epochs relative to historically significant events and ongoing efforts. We have developed an Excel workbook and complementary Web site that enables one to explore taxonomic trends for Linnaean taxonomic groupings, from Kingdoms to Families.

History lesson and the historical culture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Héctor Diego Martínez Ochoa

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The teaching - learning process of History is subjected to the theoretical conceptio ns about developing learning on the f oundation of the theory of dialectic materialism where the subject is related to the surrounded world, in order to transform the world . It is significant the subject - objet relation in the acquirement and assimilation of the culture. For that, it has to be taken into account the study of historical personalities of great importance where there are analyzed the concrete conditions in which the subjects are developed, the supports given in their time, how they contribute to transform reality in a collective and individual welfare, thus developing perspectives.

The 'horns' of a medical dilemma: Alexander the Great.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Gül A

2004-06-01

Retrospective 'diagnosis' of clinical disorders of famous historical figures has been of medical interest. In the absence of a patient's 'body', the validity of 'physical symptoms' and their interpretation by contemporary diagnostic criteria are questionable. When the symptoms have been gleaned from the patients's effigy which, as in the case of Alexander the Great, is submerged in legend, the enterprise becomes inherently hazardous. In the present paper, some of the conceptual problems underlying retrospective diagnoses will be identified. Then the use of iconographic records, such as numismatics and sculpture, to provide evidence of clinical symptoms will be shown to be highly misleading.

Temporal variations in the gene expression levels of cyanobacterial anti-oxidant enzymes through geological history: implications for biological evolution during the Great Oxidation Event

Science.gov (United States)

Harada, M.; Furukawa, R.; Yokobori, S. I.; Tajika, E.; Yamagishi, A.

2016-12-01

A significant rise in atmospheric O2 levels during the GOE (Great Oxidation Event), ca. 2.45-2.0 Ga, must have caused a great stress to biosphere, enforcing life to adapt to oxic conditions. Cyanobacteria, oxygenic photosynthetic bacteria that had been responsible for the GOE, are at the same time one of the organisms that would have been greatly affected by the rise of O2 level in the surface environments. Knowledge on the evolution of cyanobacteria is not only important to elucidate the cause of the GOE, but also helps us to better understand the adaptive evolution of life in response to the GOE. Here we performed phylogenetic analysis of an anti-oxidant enzyme Fe-SOD (iron superoxide dismutase) of cyanobacteria, to assess the adaptive evolution of life under the GOE. The rise of O2 level must have increased the level of toxic reactive oxygen species in cyanobacterial cells, thus forced them to change activities or the gene expression levels of Fe-SOD. In the present study, we focus on the change in the gene expression levels of the enzyme, which can be estimated from the promoter sequences of the gene. Promoters are DNA sequences found upstream of protein encoding regions, where RNA polymerase binds and initiates transcription. "Strong" promoters that efficiently interact with RNA polymerase induce high rates of transcription, leading to high levels of gene expression. Thus, from the temporal changes in the promoter sequences, we can estimate the variations in the gene expression levels during the geological time. Promoter sequences of Fe-SOD at each ancestral node of cyanobacteria were predicted from phylogenetic analysis, and the ancestral promoter sequences were compared to the promoters of known highly expressed genes. The similarity was low at the time of the emergence of cyanobacteria; however, increased at the branching nodes diverged 2.4 billon years ago. This roughly coincided with the onset of the GOE, implying that the transition from low to high gene

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

Science.gov (United States)

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Ternate Historical Site as an Object Based Education for Sustainable Development

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Suswandari Suswandari

2019-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims to classify the historical sites of Ternate based on the timeliness of its existence. This study uses a critical qualitative historical approach and is conducted in several locations related to the history of Ternate. Data relating to the physical facts of Ternate history sites, then the location of research in the Ternate region of North Maluku. Data were collected from several findings and poured in filed notes. Then do the sorting and grouping to found description. Data were analyzed using critical historical analysis techniques. The Ternate history sites identified in this research consist of Ternate Museum of Ternate, Ternate Great Mosque, Kastela Fortress, Toluko Fortress, Kalamata Fortress, Oranje Bull, and Nala Fortress. Seven sites are conditions vary and still require government intervention to be used as an object of tourism which can then become an economic power for the people of Ternate. With the Education For Sustainable Development (EDS approach, historical site development takes care of the needs and involves the community directly with full results for the benefit of the people of Ternate and the wider Indonesian community.

Increasing the Operational Value of Event Messages

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhenping; Savkli, Cetin; Smith, Dan

2003-01-01

Assessing the health of a space mission has traditionally been performed using telemetry analysis tools. Parameter values are compared to known operational limits and are plotted over various time periods. This presentation begins with the notion that there is an incredible amount of untapped information contained within the mission s event message logs. Through creative advancements in message handling tools, the event message logs can be used to better assess spacecraft and ground system status and to highlight and report on conditions not readily apparent when messages are evaluated one-at-a-time during a real-time pass. Work in this area is being funded as part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center to create component-based, middleware-based, standards-based general purpose ground system architecture referred to as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. The new capabilities and operational concepts for event display, event data analyses and data mining are being developed by Lockheed Martin and the new subsystem has been named GREAT - the GMSEC Reusable Event Analysis Toolkit. Planned for use on existing and future missions, GREAT has the potential to increase operational efficiency in areas of problem detection and analysis, general status reporting, and real-time situational awareness.

Debt burden of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia at times of great depression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gnjatović Dragana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available It is customary to look for the causes of widespread problems of public debt service at times of the Great Depression on the side of a sharp drop of foreign exchange earnings of the debtor country, in conditions of severe contraction of international trade and the introduction of a series of foreign trade restrictions. In the case of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, in addition to these causes, which were generated by the Great Depression, there were some specific reasons on the side of public expenditures that were not related to the crisis, which led the country to sovereign debt default in 1932. Analysing these reasons is the subject matter of this paper. The aim of this paper is to indicate, on the basis of relevant macroeconomic indicators and economic-historical facts, how much the Kingdom of Yugoslavia was indebted and why it was not possible to avoid the accumulation of public debt in the years of Great Depression.

Detecting regular sound changes in linguistics as events of concerted evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hruschka, Daniel J; Branford, Simon; Smith, Eric D; Wilkins, Jon; Meade, Andrew; Pagel, Mark; Bhattacharya, Tanmoy

2015-01-05

Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isaiah 36–39: Rethinking the issues of priority and historical reliability

African Journals Online (AJOL)

20 and refl ects a historically reliable interpretation of the events surrounding Sennacherib's invasion. On a literary level, Isaiah 36–39 shows itself to be a vital piece of the overall literary structure of Proto- Isaiah in that it highlights the fulfi lment ...

"To Kill a Mockingbird": An Historical Perspective. Learning Page Lesson Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Prody, Kathleen; Whearty, Nicolet

Students gain from a sense of the living history that surrounds Harper Lee's novel, "To Kill a Mockingbird." Through studying primary source materials from American Memory and other online sources, students of all backgrounds may better grasp how historical events and human forces have shaped relationships between black and white and…

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long

A Database of Historical Information on Landslides and Floods in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzetti, F.; Tonelli, G.

2003-04-01

For the past 12 years we have maintained and updated a database of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy, known as the National Research Council's AVI (Damaged Urban Areas) Project archive. The database was originally designed to respond to a specific request of the Minister of Civil Protection, and was aimed at helping the regional assessment of landslide and flood risk in Italy. The database was first constructed in 1991-92 to cover the period 1917 to 1990. Information of damaging landslide and flood event was collected by searching archives, by screening thousands of newspaper issues, by reviewing the existing technical and scientific literature on landslides and floods in Italy, and by interviewing landslide and flood experts. The database was then updated chiefly through the analysis of hundreds of newspaper articles, and it now covers systematically the period 1900 to 1998, and non-systematically the periods 1900 to 1916 and 1999 to 2002. Non systematic information on landslide and flood events older than 20th century is also present in the database. The database currently contains information on more than 32,000 landslide events occurred at more than 25,700 sites, and on more than 28,800 flood events occurred at more than 15,600 sites. After a brief outline of the history and evolution of the AVI Project archive, we present and discuss: (a) the present structure of the database, including the hardware and software solutions adopted to maintain, manage, use and disseminate the information stored in the database, (b) the type and amount of information stored in the database, including an estimate of its completeness, and (c) examples of recent applications of the database, including a web-based GIS systems to show the location of sites historically affected by landslides and floods, and an estimate of geo-hydrological (i.e., landslide and flood) risk in Italy based on the available historical information.

Decadal oscillation of lakes and aquifers in the upper Great Lakes region of North America: hydroclimatic implications

Science.gov (United States)

Watras, C.J.; Read, J.S.; Holman, K.D.; Liu, Z.; Song, Y.-Y.; Watras, A.J.; Morgan, S.; Stanley, E.H.

2014-01-01

We report a unique hydrologic time-series which indicates that water levels in lakes and aquifers across the upper Great Lakes region of North America have been dominated by a climatically-driven, near-decadal oscillation for at least 70 years. The historical oscillation (~13y) is remarkably consistent among small seepage lakes, groundwater tables and the two largest Laurentian Great Lakes despite substantial differences in hydrology. Hydrologic analyses indicate that the oscillation has been governed primarily by changes in the net atmospheric flux of water (P-E) and stage-dependent outflow. The oscillation is hypothetically connected to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns originating in the mid-latitude North Pacific that support the flux of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Recent data indicate an apparent change in the historical oscillation characterized by a ~12y downward trend beginning in 1998. Record low water levels region-wide may mark the onset of a new hydroclimatic regime.

Worrying about terrorism and other acute environmental health hazard events.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Michael; Babcock-Dunning, Lauren

2012-04-01

To better understand why some people worry more about terrorism compared with others, we measured how much US residents worried about a terrorist event in their area and examined the association of their fears with their concerns about acute and chronic hazards and other correlates. In 2008 (n = 600) and 2010 (n = 651), we performed a random-digit dialing national landline telephone survey. We asked about worries about terrorism and 5 other environmental health hazard issues. We also collected demographic and socioeconomic data. Only 15% worried "a great deal" about a terrorist event in their area and 18% to 33% were greatly concerned about other environmental issues. Fear about acute hazard events was a stronger predictor of a great deal of concern about terrorism than were age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational achievement, and other correlates. Those who worried most about acute environmental health hazard events were most likely to worry about terrorism. Also, those who were older, poorer, Blacks, or Latinos, or who lived in populous urban areas felt they were most vulnerable to terrorist attacks. We recommend methods to involve US citizens as part of disaster planning.

Model Based Control of Moisture Sorption in a Historical Interior

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P. Zítek

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with a novel scheme for microclimate control in historical exhibition rooms, inhibiting moisture sorption phenomena that are inadmissible from the preventive conservation point of view. The impact of air humidity is the most significant harmful exposure for a great deal of the cultural heritage deposited in remote historical buildings. Leaving the interior temperature to run almost its spontaneous yearly cycle, the proposed non-linear model-based control protects exhibits from harmful variations in moisture content by compensating the temperature drifts with an adequate adjustment of the air humidity. Already implemented in a medieval interior since 1999, the proposed microclimate control has proved capable of permanently maintaining constant a desirable moisture content in organic or porous materials in the interior of a building. 

Improving the use of historical written sources in paleopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Piers D

2017-12-01

The texts written by the people of past societies can provide key information that enhances our understanding of disease in the past. Written sources and art can describe cultural contexts that not only help us interpret lesions in excavated human remains, but also provide evidence for past disease events themselves. However, in recent decades many biohistorical articles have been published that claim to diagnose diseases present in past celebrities or well known individuals, often using less than scholarly methodology. This article aims to help researchers use historical written sources and artwork responsibly, thus improving our understanding of health and disease in the past. It explores a broad range of historical sources, from medical texts and histories to legal documents and tax records, and it highlights how the key to interpreting any past text is to understand who wrote it, when it was written, and why it was written. Case studies of plague epidemics, crucifixion, and the spinal deformity of King Richard III are then used to highlight how we might better integrate archaeological and historical evidence. When done well, integrating evidence from both archaeological and historical sources increases the probability of a complete and well-balanced understanding of disease in past societies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus

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Tsangaras Kyriakos

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. Results The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Conclusions Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas.

Computerized surveillance of opioid-related adverse drug events in perioperative care: a cross-sectional study

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Gattis Katherine G

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Given the complexity of surgical care, perioperative patients are at high risk of opioid-related adverse drug events. Existing methods of detection, such as trigger tools and manual chart review, are time-intensive which makes sustainability challenging. Using strategic rule design, computerized surveillance may be an efficient, pharmacist-driven model for event detection that leverages existing staff resources. Methods Computerized adverse drug event surveillance uses a logic-based rules engine to identify potential adverse drug events or evolving unsafe clinical conditions. We extended an inpatient rule (administration of naloxone to detect opioid-related oversedation and respiratory depression to perioperative care at a large academic medical center. Our primary endpoint was the adverse drug event rate. For all patients with a naloxone alert, manual chart review was performed by a perioperative clinical pharmacist to assess patient harm. In patients with confirmed oversedation, other patient safety event databases were queried to determine if they could detect duplicate, prior, or subsequent opioid-related events. Results We identified 419 cases of perioperative naloxone administration. Of these, 101 were given postoperatively and 69 were confirmed as adverse drug events after chart review yielding a rate of 1.89 adverse drug events/1000 surgical encounters across both the inpatient and ambulatory settings. Our ability to detect inpatient opioid adverse drug events increased 22.7% by expanding surveillance into perioperative care. Analysis of historical surveillance data as well as a voluntary reporting database revealed that 11 of our perioperative patients had prior or subsequent harmful oversedation. Nine of these cases received intraoperative naloxone, and 2 had received naloxone in the post-anesthesia care unit. Pharmacist effort was approximately 3 hours per week to evaluate naloxone alerts and confirm adverse drug

Public policy of historical memory as a factor of ukrainian society consolidation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. I. Lutsyshyn

2015-06-01

It is stated that society’s attitude toward the events and figures of the past changes frequently. Communities often adjust their attitude in order to be able to rely on it in solving urgent current problems or implementing projects aimed at the future. Collective representation of key historical events serves as a basis of group identity and allows members of the group to distinguish themselves from the others. The shortcomings and prospects for improvement of public administration in this area are defined.

THE DOCUMENTATION OF HISTORIC MAPS OF WORLD HERITAGE SITE CITY SUZHOU

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Z. Guangwei

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Documentation and analysis of historic maps enhance understanding of temporal and spatial interactions between events and the evolution of physical canals upon which they occurred. And the challenge of this work lies on carefully sifting of information through the maps drawn with relative accuracy by traditional cartographical principles before the emergence of scientific survey. This research project focuses on sorting out the evolution of historic city Suzhou in a spatio-temporal view. The investigation was conducted through an in-depth analysis of historic maps. Re-projection of the geographical elements of the city to one single georeference, that is to say a standard map BASE, help acquiring an actual sense of the scale and facilitate the recognition of the city's evolution in clear details. It is an important contribution of this thesis in coordination of variously distorted geographical information contained in nineteen periods span from 1229 to 2013 into a single research resource. Through the work both quantitative and qualitative, a clear vision of the evolution and characteristics of the urban structure of ancient Suzhou is achieved. Meanwhile, in the process of projecting the historical geometrical information onto the topographic map, historical bibliographic and cartographic records is key to the data coordination and readjustment, this inspire as well on the cautious utilization of historical materials from ancient time in the recording, documentation work.

Greek or Roman historical personages in the Quixote

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Juan Antonio López Férez

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper concentrates on the presence of Greek or Roman historical personages in Don Quixote, offering the passages with the pertinent commentary and notes. Following a chronological order, and indicating in brackets the number of mentions, we have: Lycurgus (1; Tulia, Servius Tulius daughter (1; Lucretia (2; Horatius Cocles (1; Caius Mucius Scevola (1; Artemisia-Mausolus (1; Alexander the Great (13; Hannibal (2; Publius Cornelius Scipio, Africanus (1; Viriatus (1; Sulla-Marius-Catillina (1; Julius Caesar (6; Portia (1; Augustus (2; Nero (2; Traianus-Hadrianus (1.

Avesta Dilinin Tarihi Coğrafyası
The Historical Geoghraphy Of The Avestan Language

OpenAIRE

Ulaş Töre SİVRİOĞLU

2013-01-01

The sacred book of Zoroastrians, The Avesta can not be still stateddefinitely where and when it was collected. The silence of avestan textstowards historical events,the large geographical spread of the Aryansand being too late to handwrite Avesta complicate the determination ofplace and time which avestan texts created. Therefore,it is applied tothe comparison of the social construction into texts with archeologicaland historical data,to the lexicology of avestan texts,the grammaticalstructur...

Georadar Archaeological Prospection at the Historical Center of the Merida City, Yucatan, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Barba, L.; Ortiz, A.; Blancas, J.; Ligorred, J.

2007-05-01

This paper shows the results of the georadar archaeological prospection carried out by the Laboratorio de Prospección Arqueologica from the Instituto de Investigaciones Antropologicas (IIA) of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM) verifing the archaeological and historical information recovered by the Departamento de Patrimonio Arqueologico y Natural del Municipio (DPANM) del Ayuntamiento de Merida en el Centro Histerico de la Ciudad de Merida under a joint project. The Historical Center of Merida has been classified as a "zone of high patrimonial value" after the topographic data and the historical documents recovered showed a long-term occupation, non interrupted since pre-Columbian times, when T Ho was the great capital of the northern region of the Maya area. For the rehabilitation program of the Historical Center of Merida has been a great priority to verify the existence of archaeological remains, pre-Columbian or colonial, under the present streets, gardens and plazas that could be damaged during the public infrastructure works. In order to prevent any damage to the patrimony a large georadar study was carried out pulling 200 and 400 MHz antennas of the GSSI SIR System 2 for 16500 m of the city streets, focusing in the areas where infrastructure works were imminent. After the analysis of the radar data it was possible to build up a map with the location of the most noticeable archaeological remains under the pavement of the streets that confirmed many of the topographic and documental proposed places. As a final result, by the first time a city government has available information to take present urban decisions, while preventing the damage to the archaeological patrimony of the same city.

Using Stellarium to cyber-observe the Great American Eclipse

Science.gov (United States)

Prim, Ellie R.; Sitar, David J.

2017-09-01

The Great American Eclipse is over. Somewhat sad, is it not? Individuals who were unable to experience the event on August 21, 2017, can now cyber-observe the eclipse with Stellarium (http://www.stellarium.org). In the authors' opinion, it is fun and has many great applications in the classroom. In addition it is open source and available for Android, iOS, and Linux users. We here at Appalachian use it in our introductory astronomy labs for specific activities such as investigating coordinate systems, discovering differences between solar and sidereal days, as well as determining why your "astrological sign" is most often not your "astronomical sign."

Using Focus Groups to Explore the Stressful Life Events of Black College Men

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, Daphne C.; Green, B. Lee; Goodson, Patricia; Guidry, Jeffrey Joseph; Stanley, Christine A.

2007-01-01

Black students who attend predominately White institutions (PWI) face many obstacles. This study identified the stressful life events of Black college men via focus group discussions and examined how these events impact their mental health and health behaviors. Forty-six participants from a PWI and a historically Black college/university (HBCU)…

Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587–1996)

Science.gov (United States)

Beauval, Celine; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, Jose; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

2010-01-01

The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (∼2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ∼6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587–1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mwbetween 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity ≥VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity ≥III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (±1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding

The Great Recession was not so Great

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ours, J.C.

2015-01-01

The Great Recession is characterized by a GDP-decline that was unprecedented in the past decades. This paper discusses the implications of the Great Recession analyzing labor market data from 20 OECD countries. Comparing the Great Recession with the 1980s recession it is concluded that there is a

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

2013-01-01

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Wetter

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers. The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE, the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP, and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss, which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-11-01

Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical

Continuous-time random walks with reset events. Historical background and new perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, Miquel; Masó-Puigdellosas, Axel; Villarroel, Javier

2017-09-01

In this paper, we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which relocate the system to its starting position. We focus our attention on a one-dimensional, monotonic continuous-time random walk with a constant drift: the process moves in a fixed direction between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of a deterministic bias. However, the orientation of its motion is randomly determined after each restart. As a result of these alternating dynamics, interesting properties do emerge. General formulas for the propagator as well as for two extreme statistics, the survival probability and the mean first-passage time, are also derived. The rigor of these analytical results is verified by numerical estimations, for particular but illuminating examples.

Introduction to thematic collection “Historical and geological studies of earthquakes”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenji Satake

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract This thematic collection contains eight papers mostly presented at the 2016 AOGS meeting in Beijing. Four papers describe historical earthquake studies in Europe, Japan, and China; one paper uses modern instrumental data to examine the effect of giant earthquakes on the seismicity rate; and three papers describe paleoseismological studies using tsunami deposit in Japan, marine terraces in Philippines, and active faults in Himalayas. Hammerl (Geosci Lett 4:7, 2017 introduced historical seismological studies in Austria, starting from methodology which is state of the art in most European countries, followed by a case study for an earthquake of July 17, 1670 in Tyrol. Albini and Rovida (Geosci Lett 3:30, 2016 examined 114 historical records for the earthquake on April 6, 1667 on the east coast of the Adriatic Sea, compiled 37 Macroseismic Data Points, and estimated the epicenter and the size of the earthquake. Matsu’ura (Geosci Lett 4:3, 2017 summarized historical earthquake studies in Japan which resulted in about 8700 Intensity Data Points, assigned epicenters for 214 earthquakes between AD 599 and 1872, and estimated focal depth and magnitudes for 134 events. Wang et al. (Geosci Lett 4:4, 2017 introduced historical seismology in China, where historical earthquake archives include about 15,000 sources, and parametric catalogs include about 1000 historical earthquakes between 2300 BC and AD 1911. Ishibe et al. (Geosci Lett 4:5, 2017 tested the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three giant (M~9 earthquakes that occurred in recent years, and found that at least the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes caused the seismicity rate change. Ishimura (2017 re-estimated the ages of 11 tsunami deposits in the last 4000 years along the Sanriku coast of northern Japan and found that the average recurrence interval of those tsunamis as 350–390 years. Ramos et al. (2017 studied ~ 1000-year-old marine terraces on the west

The role of historical and contemporary processes on phylogeographic structure and genetic diversity in the Northern Cardinal, Cardinalis cardinalis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navarro-Sigüenza Adolfo G

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Earth history events such as climate change are believed to have played a major role in shaping patterns of genetic structure and diversity in species. However, there is a lag between the time of historical events and the collection of present-day samples that are used to infer contemporary population structure. During this lag phase contemporary processes such as dispersal or non-random mating can erase or reinforce population differences generated by historical events. In this study we evaluate the role of both historical and contemporary processes on the phylogeography of a widespread North American songbird, the Northern Cardinal, Cardinalis cardinalis. Results Phylogenetic analysis revealed deep mtDNA structure with six lineages across the species' range. Ecological niche models supported the same geographic breaks revealed by the mtDNA. A paleoecological niche model for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that cardinals underwent a dramatic range reduction in eastern North America, whereas their ranges were more stable in México. In eastern North America cardinals expanded out of glacial refugia, but we found no signature of decreased genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum. Present-day demographic data suggested that population growth across the expansion cline is positively correlated with latitude. We propose that there was no loss of genetic diversity in areas colonized after the Last Glacial Maximum because recent high-levels of gene flow across the region have homogenized genetic diversity in eastern North America. Conclusion We show that both deep historical events as well as demographic processes that occurred following these events are critical in shaping genetic pattern and diversity in C. cardinalis. The general implication of our results is that patterns of genetic diversity are best understood when information on species history, ecology, and demography are considered

Commanders of the Great Victory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anatoly Dmitriyevich Borshchov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The honorary title of «commander» as well as the «admiral» is granted to a military or naval figure on the basis of public recognition of his personal contribution to the success of actions. Generals are usually individuals with creative thinking, the ability to foresee the development of military events. Generals usually have such personality traits as a strong will and determination, rich combat experience, credibility and high organizational skills. In an article dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the Soviet victory in the Great War examines the experience of formation and practice of the most talent-ed Soviet military leaders.

A historical perspective of the effect of the great recession on hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Shortt, Janet

2014-08-01

At 18 months, the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009 is the longest recession since World War II. The recession led to soaring unemployment, resulting in loss of employment-based health insurance for millions of people. In addition to seeing increases in uninsured patients, hospitals experienced losses in their investment portfolios, which in turn increased bad debt, charity care, and uncompensated care nationwide. Hospital executives began to devise cost-cutting strategies to balance the rising debt, such as standardizing medical equipment, cutting staff positions, and delaying construction projects and capital expenditures as well as implementing value analysis strategies. The recession is officially over, and, although economic recovery has been slow and unemployment continues to be an issue, hospitals' net revenue started improving as of 2009 and hospital construction started increasing in 2010. Still, caution is warranted in the postrecession climate, because it is unknown what effects will be seen when the Baby Boomer generation begins using Medicare. Copyright © 2014 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A chemometric approach to the characterisation of historical mortars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rampazzi, L.; Pozzi, A.; Sansonetti, A.; Toniolo, L.; Giussani, B.

2006-01-01

The compositional knowledge of historical mortars is of great concern in case of provenance and dating investigations and of conservation works since the nature of the raw materials suggests the most compatible conservation products. The classic characterisation usually goes through various analytical determinations, while conservation laboratories call for simple and quick analyses able to enlighten the nature of mortars, usually in terms of the binder fraction. A chemometric approach to the matter is here undertaken. Specimens of mortars were prepared with calcitic and dolomitic binders and analysed by Atomic Spectroscopy. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to investigate the features of specimens and samples. A Partial Least Square (PLS1) regression was done in order to predict the binder/aggregate ratio. The model was applied to historical mortars from the churches of St. Lorenzo (Milan) and St. Abbondio (Como). The accordance between the predictive model and the real samples is discussed

An historical framework for psychiatric nosology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendler, K S

2009-12-01

This essay, which seeks to provide an historical framework for our efforts to develop a scientific psychiatric nosology, begins by reviewing the classificatory approaches that arose in the early history of biological taxonomy. Initial attempts at species definition used top-down approaches advocated by experts and based on a few essential features of the organism chosen a priori. This approach was subsequently rejected on both conceptual and practical grounds and replaced by bottom-up approaches making use of a much wider array of features. Multiple parallels exist between the beginnings of biological taxonomy and psychiatric nosology. Like biological taxonomy, psychiatric nosology largely began with 'expert' classifications, typically influenced by a few essential features, articulated by one or more great 19th-century diagnosticians. Like biology, psychiatry is struggling toward more soundly based bottom-up approaches using diverse illness characteristics. The underemphasized historically contingent nature of our current psychiatric classification is illustrated by recounting the history of how 'Schneiderian' symptoms of schizophrenia entered into DSM-III. Given these historical contingencies, it is vital that our psychiatric nosologic enterprise be cumulative. This can be best achieved through a process of epistemic iteration. If we can develop a stable consensus in our theoretical orientation toward psychiatric illness, we can apply this approach, which has one crucial virtue. Regardless of the starting point, if each iteration (or revision) improves the performance of the nosology, the eventual success of the nosologic process, to optimally reflect the complex reality of psychiatric illness, is assured.

An historical framework for psychiatric nosology

Science.gov (United States)

Kendler, K. S.

2009-01-01

This essay, which seeks to provide an historical framework for our efforts to develop a scientific psychiatric nosology, begins by reviewing the classificatory approaches that arose in the early history of biological taxonomy. Initial attempts at species definition used top-down approaches advocated by experts and based on a few essential features of the organism chosen a priori. This approach was subsequently rejected on both conceptual and practical grounds and replaced by bottom-up approaches making use of a much wider array of features. Multiple parallels exist between the beginnings of biological taxonomy and psychiatric nosology. Like biological taxonomy, psychiatric nosology largely began with ‘expert’ classifications, typically influenced by a few essential features, articulated by one or more great 19th-century diagnosticians. Like biology, psychiatry is struggling toward more soundly based bottom-up approaches using diverse illness characteristics. The underemphasized historically contingent nature of our current psychiatric classification is illustrated by recounting the history of how ‘Schneiderian’ symptoms of schizophrenia entered into DSM-III. Given these historical contingencies, it is vital that our psychiatric nosologic enterprise be cumulative. This can be best achieved through a process of epistemic iteration. If we can develop a stable consensus in our theoretical orientation toward psychiatric illness, we can apply this approach, which has one crucial virtue. Regardless of the starting point, if each iteration (or revision) improves the performance of the nosology, the eventual success of the nosologic process, to optimally reflect the complex reality of psychiatric illness, is assured. PMID:19368761

Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, A.; Yu, X.; Shen, Z.

2014-12-01

Although the seismically active North China basin has the most complete written records of pre-instrumentation earthquakes in the world, this information has not been fully utilized for assessing potential earthquake hazards of this densely populated region that hosts ~200 million people. In this study, we use the historical records to document the earthquake migration pattern and the existence of a 180-km seismic gap along the 600-km long right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian (THC) fault zone that cuts across the North China basin. The newly recognized seismic gap, which is centered at Tianjin with a population of 11 million people and ~120 km from Beijing (22 million people) and Tangshan (7 million people), has not been ruptured in the past 1000 years by M≥6 earthquakes. The seismic migration pattern in the past millennium suggests that the epicenters of major earthquakes have shifted towards this seismic gap along the THC fault, which implies that the 180- km gap could be the site of the next great earthquake with M≈7.6 if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping or seismic strain transfer between active faults.

An inventory of historical glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas based on remote sensing observations and geomorphological analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Yong; Liu, Qiao; Wang, Jida; Zhang, Yili; Sheng, Yongwei; Liu, Shiyin

2018-05-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a unique type of natural hazard in the cryosphere that may result in catastrophic fatalities and damages. The Himalayas are known as one of the world's most GLOF-vulnerable zones. Effective hazard assessments and risk management require a thorough inventory of historical GLOF events across the Himalayas, which is hitherto absent. Existing studies imply that numerous historical GLOF events are contentious because of discrepant geographic coordinates, names, or outburst time, requiring further verifications. This study reviews and verifies over 60 historical GLOF events across the Himalayas using a comprehensive method that combines literature documentations, archival remote sensing observations, geomorphological analysis, and field investigations. As a result, three unreported GLOF events were discovered from remote sensing images and geomorphological analysis. Eleven suspicious events were identified and suggested to be excluded. The properties of five outburst lakes, i.e., Degaco, Chongbaxia Tsho, Geiqu, Lemthang Tsho, and a lake on Tshojo Glacier, were corrected or updated. A total of 51 GLOF events were verified to be convincing, and these outburst lakes were classified into three categories according to their statuses in the past decades, namely disappeared (12), stable (30), and expanding (9). Statistics of the verified GLOF events show that GLOF tended to occur between April and October in the Himalayas. We suggest that more attention should be paid to rapidly expanding glacial lakes with high possibility of repetitive outbursts. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating remote sensing and geomorphic interpretations in identifying and verifying GLOF events in remote alpine environments. This inventory of GLOFs with a range of critical attributes (e.g., locations, time, and mechanisms) will benefit the continuous monitoring and prediction of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and contribute to

Evolution of nuclear medicine: a historical perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, A.; Kamal, S.

1996-01-01

The field Nuclear Medicine has Completed its 100 yeas in 1996. Nuclear medicine began with physics, expanded into chemistry and instrumentation, and then greatly influenced various fields of medicine. The chronology of the events that formulated the present status of nuclear medicine involves some of the great pioneers of yesterday like Becquerel, Curie, Joliot, Hevesy, Anger, Berson and Yallow. The field of nuclear medicine has been regarded as the bridge builder between various aspects of health care and within next 20 years, nuclear medicine enters a new age of certainty, in which surgery, radiation and chemotherapy will only be used when a benefit in certain to result from the treatment. (author)

Eta Carinae's 2014.6 spectroscopic event: Clues to the long-term recovery from its Great Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Mehner, A.; Davidson, K.; Humphreys, R. M.; Walter, F. M.; Baade, D.; de Wit, W. J.; Martin, J.; Ishibashi, K.; Rivinius, T.; Martayan, C.; Ruiz, M. T.; Weis, K.

2015-06-01

Aims: Every 5.5 years, η Car's light curve and spectrum change remarkably across all observed wavelength bands. These so-called spectroscopic events are most likely caused by the close approach of a companion. We compare the recent spectroscopic event in mid-2014 to the events in 2003 and 2009 and investigate long-term trends. Methods: Eta Car was observed with HST STIS, VLT UVES, and CTIO 1.5 m CHIRON for a period of more than two years in 2012-2015. Archival observations with these instruments cover three orbital cycles and the events of 2003.5, 2009.1, and 2014.6. The STIS spectra provide high spatial resolution and include epochs during the 2014 event when observations from most ground-based observatories were not feasible. The strategy for UVES observations allows for a multidimensional analysis, because each location in the reflection nebula is correlated with a different stellar latitude. Results: Important spectroscopic diagnostics during η Car's events show significant changes in 2014 compared to previous events. While the timing of the first He ii λ4686 flash was remarkably similar to previous events, the He ii equivalent widths were slightly larger, and the line flux increased by a factor of ~7 compared to 2003. The second He ii peak occurred at about the same phase as in 2009, but was stronger. The He i line flux grew by a factor of ~8 in 2009-2014 compared to 1998-2003. The N ii emission lines also increased in strength. On the other hand, Hα and Fe ii lines show the smallest emission strengths ever observed in η Car. The optical continuum brightened by a factor of ~4 in the past 10-15 years.The polar spectrum shows fewer changes in the broad wind emission lines: the Fe ii emission strength decreased by a factor of ~2 (compared to a factor of ~4 in our direct line of sight). The He ii equivalent widths at FOS4 were larger in 2009 and 2014 than during the 2003 event. Conclusions: The basic character of η Car's spectroscopic events has changed in

An ecosystem approach to the health effects of mercury in the Great Lakes basin ecosystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbertson, Michael; Carpenter, D.O.

2004-01-01

New concerns about the global presence and human health significance of mercury have arisen as a result of recent epidemiological data demonstrating subtle neurological effects from consumption of mercury-contaminated fish. In the Great Lakes Basin, the complexity of the diverse sources, pools, and sinks of mercury and of the pathways of distribution, fate, and biotransformation requires an ecosystem approach to the assessment of exposures of Great Lakes' human populations. Further epidemiological research is needed to verify preliminary indications of harmful effects in people living near the Great Lakes. Great Lakes fish are valuable resources for subsistence nutrition, recreation, and commerce, but the benefits of fish consumption must be balanced by concern for the hazards from the contaminants that they may contain. The efficacy of fish consumption advisories in reducing exposures should continue to be evaluated while planning continues for remedial actions on contaminated sediments from historic industrial activities and for regulatory action to control sources

Modern Aspects of Cultural and Historical Heritage Involvement in Tourism Activities in Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Aleksandrova

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on problems and prospects of cultural tourism development in Russia. The results of overall research at national, regional and local levels and case studies held in several regions of Russia are presented. They confirm that Russia’s huge cultural and historical heritage is still inefficiently used in tourism. In recent years the growing demand for cultural tours remains largely pending due to lack of modern tourist products and their insufficient promotion. The use of iconic and flagship attractions for increasing the destination attractiveness as well as culture-tourism interaction in regional development are being discussed. Currently, particular attention is paid to events based on cultural and historical sites. “National Calendar of Events” and national “Russian Event Award” are established to encourage event tourism growth. State policy in cultural tourism management in Russia is now changing mainly from the separate “growth points” development to the organization of interregional tourist routes based on diverse cultural heritage. Effective interaction of cultural heritage and tourism industry requires special measures and platforms based on the partnership of a vast number of stakeholders.

Implementing Solar PV Projects on Historic Buildings and in Historic Districts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kandt, A.; Hotchkiss, E.; Walker, A.; Buddenborg, J; Lindberg, J.

2011-09-01

Many municipalities, particularly in older communities of the United States, have a large amount of historic buildings and districts. In addition to preserving these historic assets, many municipalities have goals or legislative requirements to procure a certain amount of energy from renewable sources and to become more efficient in their energy use; often, these requirements do not exempt historic buildings. This paper details findings from a workshop held in Denver, Colorado, in June 2010 that brought together stakeholders from both the solar and historic preservation industries. Based on these findings, this paper identifies challenges and recommends solutions for developing solar photovoltaic (PV) projects on historic buildings and in historic districts in such a way as to not affect the characteristics that make a building eligible for historic status.

The rise and fall of gay: a cultural-historical approach to gay identity development.

Science.gov (United States)

Weststrate, Nic M; McLean, Kate C

2010-02-01

Research on identity development has paid relatively little attention to the development of marginalised identities such as those of gays and lesbians, whose isolation from the canonical narrative of sexuality may limit the available resources required for establishing a coherent identity. We examined these contested identities in relation to cultural-historical factors that may have played a role in shaping these identities over the past 50 years, and looked at how such factors have impacted the voicing and silencing of gay experiences. Participants (N=251) reported (1) a memory of a cultural event relevant to their sexuality, and (2) a self-defining memory about their sexuality. Those in older cohorts reported cultural memories centred on politics and other external events (e.g., Stonewall riots), and younger cohorts reported more personal memories (e.g., coming out), suggesting that homosexual identities have become less culturally defined, and instead more personally defined. Further, participants of older cohorts reported self-defining events that were predominantly from one private domain (e.g., sex). In contrast, younger participants reported a variety of self-defining events. These results suggest that cultural-historical factors play an important role in defining the developmental pathway of individuals, perhaps especially those who have marginalised identities.

Modeling Documents with Event Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longhui Wang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

Geopan AT@S: a Brokering Based Gateway to Georeferenced Historical Maps for Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Previtali, M.

2017-08-01

Importance of ancient and historical maps is nowadays recognized in many applications (e.g., urban planning, landscape valorisation and preservation, land changes identification, etc.). In the last years a great effort has been done by different institutions, such as Geographical Institutes, Public Administrations, and collaborative communities, for digitizing and publishing online collections of historical maps. In spite of this variety and availability of data, information overload makes difficult their discovery and management: without knowing the specific repository where the data are stored, it is difficult to find the information required. In addition, problems of interconnection between different data sources and their restricted interoperability may arise. This paper describe a new brokering based gateway developed to assure interoperability between data, in particular georeferenced historical maps and geographic data, gathered from different data providers, with various features and referring to different historical periods. The developed approach is exemplified by a new application named GeoPAN Atl@s that is aimed at linking in Northern Italy area land changes with risk analysis (local seismicity amplification and flooding risk) by using multi-temporal data sources and historic maps.

Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records.

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, David K; Moseley, Michael E

2004-07-27

In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

Using Webgis and Cloud Tools to Promote Cultural Heritage Dissemination: the Historic up Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tommasi, A.; Cefalo, R.; Zardini, F.; Nicolaucig, M.

2017-05-01

On the occasion of the First World War centennial, GeoSNav Lab (Geodesy and Satellite Navigation Laboratory), Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Italy, in coooperation with Radici&Futuro Association, Trieste, Italy, carried out an educational Project named "Historic Up" involving a group of students from "F. Petrarca" High School of Trieste, Italy. The main goal of the project is to make available to students of Middle and High Schools a set of historical and cultural contents in a simple and immediate way, through the production of a virtual and interactive tour following the event that caused the burst of the First World War: the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sofia in Sarajevo occurred on June 28, 1914. A set of Google Apps was used, including Google Earth, Maps, Tour Builder, Street View, Gmail, Drive, and Docs. The Authors instructed the students about software and team-working and supported them along the research. After being checked, all the historical and geographic data have been uploaded on a Google Tour Builder to create a sequence of historical checkpoints. Each checkpoint has texts, pictures and videos that connect the tour-users to 1914. Moreover, GeoSNaV Lab researchers produced a KML (Keyhole Markup Language) file, formed by several polylines and points, representing the itinerary of the funeral procession that has been superimposed on ad-hoc georeferenced historical maps. This tour, freely available online, starts with the arrival of the royals, on June 28th 1914, and follows the couple along the events, from the assassination to the burial in Arstetten (Austria), including their passages through Trieste (Italy), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Graz and Wien (Austria).

Locating the Great Red Spot: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Science.gov (United States)

Lesniak, Michael V.; Stapleton, J. C.

2014-01-01

The Great Red Spot, a persistent storm in Jupiter's atmosphere, is the most prominent feature of that planet's disk as viewed from Earth. Combined with the fact that Jupiter is a gas giant planet and has no visible surface with discernible landmarks, this means that following the passage of the Great Red Spot is the primary method of observing the planet's rotation. Therefore, it is paramount for any program which generates synthetic images of the planet to accurately place the feature. The U.S. Naval Observatory's "Apparent Disk of a Solar System Object" online web service (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/diskmap.php) is such a program. The Great Red Spot's planetary latitude is locked between two of Jupiter's striated atmospheric layers at 22 °S. However, its planetary longitude is not constant; over time it migrates east and west along the atmospheric layer boundary it is trapped within. Observing and recording its longitude is made difficult because Jupiter's atmosphere is subject to differential rotation and the Great Red Spot slowly migrates with respect to the surrounding atmospheric layers. Furthermore, the Great Red Spot does not move at a uniform rate. Currently its relative motion is approximately 0°.051 per day. Since its first recorded observation in 1831, the Great Red Spot has made almost three complete laps around the planet at the 22nd parallel. "Apparent Disk of a Solar System Object" operates over any requested date between 1700 and 2100 A.D. Therefore, our treatment of the Great Red Spot needs to take into account both historical positions and future predicted motion. Based on researching past observations of the spot's position on the disk, we find that its behavior prior to 2009 is best represented by a 10-part piecewise function. Each component of the piecewise function is a 2nd order polynomial. Observations from 2009-present are better fit with a linear function; this function is used for future years by extrapolation. Using these fits

A Historical Perspective of the Atlantic’s Evolution

OpenAIRE

Teixeira, Nuno Severiano; Marcos, Daniel

2016-01-01

SFRH/BPD/75764/2011 UID/CPO/04627/2013 565280-EPP-1-2015-1-USEPPJMO-NETWORK In the last two centuries, several key moments have defined the Atlantic Basin’s history that help us understand its present. This chapter endeavours to present a comprehensive overview of this evolution, pointing out key events that set up the historical links that still play a role in the Atlantic. In the first section, following a chronological approach, it shows how the American and the French Revolutions...

Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

Science.gov (United States)

Parodi, Antonio; Ferraris, Luca; Gallus, William; Maugeri, Maurizio; Molini, Luca; Siccardi, Franco; Boni, Giorgio

2017-05-01

Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

Science.gov (United States)

Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

2009-09-01

Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River

Significant Tsunami Events

Science.gov (United States)

Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

Variations of «Drama Historial» (Historical Drama in Lope de Vega

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joan Oleza Simó

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Starting from the presentation of the principles underlying the current research and that link it to previous studies —principles which deal with the concept and features of drama historial (historic drama in Lope de Vega—, the essay focuses on the distinction of two fundamental modes of drama historial: the commemoration of famous historical events on the one hand, and moral conflict analysis, almost always of private nature and exploding in specific historical circumstances, on the other hand. These two major strategies of significance, the one being characteristic of a collective memory, associated with the identity of the nascent nation, and the other one exploring private identity, their subjectivity and their conflicts, constitute the two major branches of Lope’s drama historial. In exceptional cases, this diversification of strategies can be seen with precision in variations on the same subject. Such is the case of plays dedicated to the figure of the king of Portugal João II, two of which, the First and the Second part of The Perfect Prince, are a clear commemoration of famous public events, in this case about an exemplary king, while the third, the tragedy of The Duke of Viseo, is a detailed analysis of an ethical-political conflict which stresses the clash of individual subjects, and especially that between the King and the Duke of Viseo. The differences in the dramatic strategies followed in these works determine a completely different image of the historical figure of the king, who appears as a perfect prince in the first and second dramas, and as a man capable of perversion and injustice in the third.

Stable Isotopic Composition of Precipitation from 2015-2016 Central Texas Rainfall Events

Science.gov (United States)

Maupin, C. R.; McChesney, C. L.; Roark, B.; Gorman, M. K.; Housson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Central Texas lies within the Southern Great Plains, a region where rainfall is of tremendous agricultural and associated socioeconomic importance. Paleoclimate records from speleothems in central Texas caves may assist in placing historical and recent drought and pluvial events in the context of natural variability. Effective interpretation of such records requires the nature and origin of variations in the meteoric δ18O signal transmitted from cloud to speleothem to be understood. Here we present a record of meteoric δ18O and δD from each individual precipitation event (δ18Op and δDp), collected by rain gauge in Austin, Texas, USA, from April 2015 through 2016. Backwards hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectories (HYSPLITs) indicate the broader moisture source for each precipitation event during this time was the Gulf of Mexico. The local meteoric water line is within error of the global meteoric water line, suggesting minimal sourcing of evaporated continental vapor for precipitation. Total monthly rainfall followed the climatological pattern of a dual boreal spring and fall maximum, with highly variable event δ18Op and δDp values. Surface temperature during precipitation often exerts control over continental and mid latitude δ18Op values, but is not significantly correlated to study site δ18Op (p>0.10). Amount of rain falling during each precipitation event ("amount effect") explains a significant 18% of variance in δ18Op. We hypothesize that this relationship can be attributed to the following: 1) minimal recycling of continental water vapor during the study period; 2) the presence of synoptic conditions favoring intense boreal spring and fall precipitation, driven by a developing, and subsequently in-place, strong ENSO event coupled with a southerly flow from the open Gulf of Mexico; and 3) the meteorological nature of the predominant precipitating events over Texas during this time, mesoscale convective systems, which are known to

Historical event: the best reload of CLV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivera C, A.

2006-01-01

The present work will describe how the Laguna Verde Central advances to achieve the excellence in the evaluations of WANO, in one of their two important concepts that have to improve to aspire to that qualification, in Collective Dose of the Personnel and in the duration of the periods of the fuel reloads. The result of the 11th Fuel reload of the Unit 1 that begins September 11, 2005 and concludes on October 10, 2005, came out in 29.5 days, being the best in the history of the CLV. It critical route (most large duration activities) it was the bigger maintenance of the main generator, having like challenge that if the program was completed or decreased the time, the Laguna Verde Central it would be placed in the threshold of the qualification of Excellency. With this vision the technicians of the Power station in previous meetings, determined to improve the maneuvers recommended by the manufacturing Mitsubishi (Japanese Company) for the disassembly and assembly of the rotor that it has a weight of 120 tons, same that for their great weight make difficult the maneuver. This maintenance is carried out every five years, highlighting that in its previous maintenance it was in reload of 17 hours in its retirement, same that it was to improve. The changes to the instructions of Mitsubishi for the retirement of the rotor are: the use of synthetic slings instead of steel strobes that needed to use of neoprene and wooden staves to protect the rotor and a system of pulleys instead of differential of chain, being 3 hours in the retirement of the rotor, instead of 17 hours that it lasted previously. It is also excellent that it decreased of six necessary people for the movement of the rotor, to a one person. The reduction of effort was shown in pictures, like instead of the chain differential, they put on steel strobes with pulleys. To give the force of the movement it was used a hoisting machine. The two fixed support points were changed in supports with simple pulleys

Locating and mitigating risks to children associated with major sporting events

OpenAIRE

Brackenridge, CH; Rhind, D; Palmer-Felgate, S

2014-01-01

Despite recent efforts to blend sport and human rights, activism for children's rights in sport has historically been marginalised. The positive 'social legacy' of sport events frequently masks more problematic issues, including child exploitation. We argue that harms to children in hosting communities of major sporting events (MSEs) should be a focus for both research and intervention since the plight of such children is currently a political blind spot. The article examines the evidence for...

A Short Biography of Joseph Fourier and Historical Development of Fourier Series and Fourier Transforms

Science.gov (United States)

Debnath, Lokenath

2012-01-01

This article deals with a brief biographical sketch of Joseph Fourier, his first celebrated work on analytical theory of heat, his first great discovery of Fourier series and Fourier transforms. Included is a historical development of Fourier series and Fourier transforms with their properties, importance and applications. Special emphasis is made…

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

2009-09-15

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

2009-01-01

The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

Will oil palm's homecoming spell doom for Africa's great apes?

Science.gov (United States)

Wich, Serge A; Garcia-Ulloa, John; Kühl, Hjalmar S; Humle, Tatanya; Lee, Janice S H; Koh, Lian Pin

2014-07-21

Expansion of oil palm plantations has led to extensive wildlife habitat conversion in Southeast Asia [1]. This expansion is driven by a global demand for palm oil for products ranging from foods to detergents [2], and more recently for biofuels [3]. The negative impacts of oil palm development on biodiversity [1, 4, 5], and on orangutans (Pongo spp.) in particular, have been well documented [6, 7] and publicized [8, 9]. Although the oil palm is of African origin, Africa's production historically lags behind that of Southeast Asia. Recently, significant investments have been made that will likely drive the expansion of Africa's oil palm industry [10]. There is concern that this will lead to biodiversity losses similar to those in Southeast Asia. Here, we analyze the potential impact of oil palm development on Africa's great apes. Current great ape distribution in Africa substantially overlaps with current oil palm concessions (by 58.7%) and areas suitable for oil palm production (by 42.3%). More importantly, 39.9% of the distribution of great ape species on unprotected lands overlaps with suitable oil palm areas. There is an urgent need to develop guidelines for the expansion of oil palm in Africa to minimize the negative effects on apes and other wildlife. There is also a need for research to support land use decisions to reconcile economic development, great ape conservation, and avoiding carbon emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The National Landslide Database of Great Britain: Acquisition, communication and the role of social media

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Dijkstra, Tom; Lawrie, Kenneth

2015-11-01

The British Geological Survey (BGS) is the national geological agency for Great Britain that provides geoscientific information to government, other institutions and the public. The National Landslide Database has been developed by the BGS and is the focus for national geohazard research for landslides in Great Britain. The history and structure of the geospatial database and associated Geographical Information System (GIS) are explained, along with the future developments of the database and its applications. The database is the most extensive source of information on landslides in Great Britain with over 17,000 records of landslide events to date, each documented as fully as possible for inland, coastal and artificial slopes. Data are gathered through a range of procedures, including: incorporation of other databases; automated trawling of current and historical scientific literature and media reports; new field- and desk-based mapping technologies with digital data capture, and using citizen science through social media and other online resources. This information is invaluable for directing the investigation, prevention and mitigation of areas of unstable ground in accordance with Government planning policy guidelines. The national landslide susceptibility map (GeoSure) and a national landslide domains map currently under development, as well as regional mapping campaigns, rely heavily on the information contained within the landslide database. Assessing susceptibility to landsliding requires knowledge of the distribution of failures, an understanding of causative factors, their spatial distribution and likely impacts, whilst understanding the frequency and types of landsliding present is integral to modelling how rainfall will influence the stability of a region. Communication of landslide data through the Natural Hazard Partnership (NHP) and Hazard Impact Model contributes to national hazard mitigation and disaster risk reduction with respect to weather and

Construct on Digital Rights Management for Historical Newspaper Archives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shien-chiang Yu

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Newspaper is one of the most important media as it contains the records that input the cultural data and social events, progress of national and international economical and political developments, the world’s circumstances of the time, so as transmitting information and sharing knowledge of particular regions or around the globe. However, the copyright is limited to cover the transformed entity to digital contents. In order to protect the rights of digitized-contents and restrict the scope of on-line grant of historical newspaper, it is necessary to clarify the concepts and practices. This study reveals the concepts of digital rights management via literature review that will work on both mentioned issues, so as to identify the fair use to assure the profit of digitized archive of historical newspaper. [Article content in Chinese

Glass Science tutorial lecture No. 5: Historical review of USDOE tank waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDaniel, E.W.

1995-02-01

This is a two day course whose objective is to present an unbiased historical overview of the DOE tank waste activities. World events which impacted the US nuclear program (or vise versa) will be presented. Liquid, mostly tank waste, and sludge are the primary concerns of this course

The Conference in the Moscow Kremlin State Museums “Historical Weapons in Museums and Private Collections”

OpenAIRE

Sergey P. Orlenko

2017-01-01

In November 2016 in the Moscow Kremlin State Historical and Cultural Museum and Heritage Site in the framework of events dedicated to the 210th anniversary of the Armoury Chamber museum, an international conference “Historical weapons in museums and private collections”. This scientific forum continued the tradition of conferences held in the Moscow Kremlin Museums in 1999-2007. The participants of this forum discussed a number of priority topics for the studies of the weapon collection h...

A forgotten social science? Creating a place for linguistics in the historical dialogue.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Nielsen, Janet

2011-01-01

The post-World War II era was one of great triumph for American linguists-and yet linguistics is all but absent from the historical literature on postwar social science. This paper aims to illuminate this curious situation: to understand its provenance, evaluate its merits, and contextualize it broadly. I argue that the historiographic lacuna results from two factors: (1) the opt-out of linguists from the wider American social science community, and (2) historical-developmental and -orientational factors that stand linguistics apart from the social science mainstream. The resultant isolation of linguistics has led to a parallel isolation in the historical literature. Ultimately, this paper poses a pivotal and timely question: How is the postwar social science space construed within the existing historiographic framework, and how should it be construed in order to maximize understanding? I propose a rethink of the received historiography centered on intellectual transformations and cross-disciplinary integration. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

FEH Local: improving flood estimates using historical data

OpenAIRE

Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Stewart, Lisa; Faulkner, Duncan; Mitchell, Chrissy

2016-01-01

The traditional approach to design flood estimation (for example, to derive the 100-year flood) is to apply a statistical model to time series of peak river flow measured by gauging stations. Such records are typically not very long, for example in the UK only about 10% of the stations have records that are more than 50 years in length. Along-explored way to augment the data available from a gauging station is to derive information about historical flood events and paleo-floods, which can be ...

The role of fire in managing for biological diversity on native rangelands of the Northern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Carolyn Hull Sieg

1997-01-01

A strategy for using fire to manage for biological diversity on native rangelands in the Northern Great Plains incorporates an understanding of its past frequency, timing and intensity. Historically, lightning and humans were the major fire setters, and the role of fire varied both in space and time. A burning regime that includes fires at various intervals, seasons...

Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy

OpenAIRE

Stephen G. Cecchetti

1997-01-01

Over the four years beginning in the summer of 1929, financial markets, labor markets and goods markets all virtually ceased to function. Throughout this, the government policymaking apparatus seemed helpless. Since the end of the Great Depression, macroeconomists have labored diligently in an effort to understand the circumstances that led to the wholesale collapse of the economy. What lessons can we draw from our study of these events? In this essay, I argue that the Federal Reserve played ...

Science-based risk assessments for rare events in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M. K.; Camargo, S. J.; Lee, C. Y.; Allen, J. T.

2014-12-01

History shows that substantial investments in protection against any specific type of natural disaster usually occur only after (usually shortly after) that specific type of disaster has happened in a given place. This is true even when it was well known before the event that there was a significant risk that it could occur. Presumably what psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have called "availability bias" is responsible, at least in part, for these failures to act on known but out-of-sample risks. While understandable, this human tendency prepares us poorly for events which are very rare (on the time scales of human lives) and even more poorly for a changing climate, as historical records become a poorer guide. A more forward-thinking and rational approach would require scientific risk assessments that can place meaningful probabilities on events that are rare enough to be absent from the historical record, and that can account for the influences of both anthropogenic climate change and low-frequency natural climate variability. The set of tools available for doing such risk assessments is still quite limited, particularly for some of the most extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes. We will briefly assess the state of the art for these events in particular, and describe some of our ongoing research to develop new tools for quantitative risk assessment using hybrids of statistical methods and physical understanding of the hazards.

Historic Context and Building Assessments for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Built Environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ullrich, R. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sullivan, M. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2007-09-14

This document was prepared to support u.s. Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Agency (DOE/NNSA) compliance with Sections 106 and 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a DOE/NNSA laboratory and is engaged in determining the historic status of its properties at both its main site in Livermore, California, and Site 300, its test site located eleven miles from the main site. LLNL contracted with the authors via Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to prepare a historic context statement for properties at both sites and to provide assessments of those properties of potential historic interest. The report contains an extensive historic context statement and the assessments of individual properties and groups of properties determined, via criteria established in the context statement, to be of potential interest. The historic context statement addresses the four contexts within which LLNL falls: Local History, World War II History (WWII), Cold War History, and Post-Cold War History. Appropriate historic preservation themes relevant to LLNL's history are delineated within each context. In addition, thresholds are identified for historic significance within each of the contexts based on the explication and understanding of the Secretary of the Interior's Guidelines for determining eligibility for the National Register of Historic Places. The report identifies specific research areas and events in LLNL's history that are of interest and the portions of the built environment in which they occurred. Based on that discussion, properties of potential interest are identified and assessments of them are provided. Twenty individual buildings and three areas of potential historic interest were assessed. The final recommendation is that, of these, LLNL has five individual historic buildings, two sets of historic objects, and two historic districts eligible for the National Register. All are

Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. M. Willis

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time

Event structure and cognitive control.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimer, Jason F; Radvansky, Gabriel A; Lorsbach, Thomas C; Armendarez, Joseph J

2015-09-01

Recently, a great deal of research has demonstrated that although everyday experience is continuous in nature, it is parsed into separate events. The aim of the present study was to examine whether event structure can influence the effectiveness of cognitive control. Across 5 experiments we varied the structure of events within the AX-CPT by shifting the spatial location of cues and probes on a computer screen. When location shifts were present, a pattern of AX-CPT performance consistent with enhanced cognitive control was found. To test whether the location shift effects were caused by the presence of event boundaries per se, other aspects of the AX-CPT were manipulated, such as the color of cues and probes and the inclusion of a distractor task during the cue-probe delay. Changes in cognitive control were not found under these conditions, suggesting that the location shift effects were specifically related to the formation of separate event models. Together, these results can be accounted for by the Event Horizon Model and a representation-based theory of cognitive control, and suggest that cognitive control can be influenced by the surrounding environmental structure. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Testimonial Response to Frame the Challenges and Possibilities of Risky Historical Texts

Science.gov (United States)

Damico, James; Apol, Laura

2008-01-01

Literature that vividly and explicitly describes (often in the form of testimonies from one or more characters) traumatic and/or catastrophic events of human history poses particular challenges for readers. This article proposes testimonial response as one approach to responding to these "risky historical texts." By way of introducing "testimonial…

USING WEBGIS AND CLOUD TOOLS TO PROMOTE CULTURAL HERITAGE DISSEMINATION: THE HISTORIC UP PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Tommasi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available On the occasion of the First World War centennial, GeoSNav Lab (Geodesy and Satellite Navigation Laboratory, Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Italy, in coooperation with Radici&Futuro Association, Trieste, Italy, carried out an educational Project named “Historic Up” involving a group of students from “F. Petrarca” High School of Trieste, Italy. The main goal of the project is to make available to students of Middle and High Schools a set of historical and cultural contents in a simple and immediate way, through the production of a virtual and interactive tour following the event that caused the burst of the First World War: the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sofia in Sarajevo occurred on June 28, 1914. A set of Google Apps was used, including Google Earth, Maps, Tour Builder, Street View, Gmail, Drive, and Docs. The Authors instructed the students about software and team-working and supported them along the research. After being checked, all the historical and geographic data have been uploaded on a Google Tour Builder to create a sequence of historical checkpoints. Each checkpoint has texts, pictures and videos that connect the tour-users to 1914. Moreover, GeoSNaV Lab researchers produced a KML (Keyhole Markup Language file, formed by several polylines and points, representing the itinerary of the funeral procession that has been superimposed on ad-hoc georeferenced historical maps. This tour, freely available online, starts with the arrival of the royals, on June 28th 1914, and follows the couple along the events, from the assassination to the burial in Arstetten (Austria, including their passages through Trieste (Italy, Ljubljana (Slovenia, Graz and Wien (Austria.

Experimental Investigation of Lime Mortar Used in Historical Buildings in Becin, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adem SOLAK

2016-05-01

Full Text Available It is of great importance that the architectural and engineering disciplines work together in the restoration studies of historical buildings which are our cultural heritages. It is required that the bearing system and the materials of the structures should be investigated in detail prior to any conservation. The determination of the properties and compositions of the mortar material used in the construction of the historical building is one of the most important phases of the conservation studies and it is the main purpose of this study. In the scope of the study, the basic physical and mechanical properties, micro structures, raw material compositions, mineralogical and chemical properties of historical mortars taken from Kizil Khan, Karapasah Madrasah and Yelli Mosque structures in Becin antique city are determined. As a result of the study, it is determined that all mortar samples have hydraulic properties that is a result of hydraulic properties of binder lime.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.22.1.9022

Historical Biogeography of Five Characidium Fish Species: Dispersal from the Amazon Paleobasin to Southeastern South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Poveda-Martínez, Daniel; Sosa, Chrystian C; Chacón-Vargas, Katherine; García-Merchán, Víctor Hugo

2016-01-01

Characidium is a Neotropical fish genus. Its distribution ranges from eastern Panama to northern Argentina, and it is an important component of the Neotropical ichthyofauna present in the major rivers of South America. We here provide an approximation to the dispersal and historical distributions of Characidium. The biogeographic history of five species of the genus was analyzed through nuclear RAG-2 and mitochondrial 16S genes and a time-calibrated phylogenetic analysis using three outgroup species. A biogeographical reconstruction was performed to estimate ancestral geographic ranges and infer the historical events that impacted the geographic distributions of Characidium species. Our results showed Characidium as a monophyletic group. The molecular clock suggests that the most recent common ancestor of Characidium originated during the Eocene, about 50.2 Mya. In addition, different dispersion and vicariance events could be inferred, which possibly gave rise to the present geographical distribution of the genus. Our results point to the rise of the Andean mountains and sea fluctuations as being important events in the formations and delimitation of different rivers, which influenced the distribution of South American ichthyofauna.

Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

2017-12-01

The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

Philosophy and Revolution: Badiou's Infidelity to the Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Vassilacopoulos

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Our aim in this paper is to give reasons for thinking that Badioursquo;s philosophy is not prepared to follow through all the consequences of the historical retreat of the political event. We want to suggest that it is important to come to terms with the implications of this retreat as no less a revolutionary aspect of the revolution. Whereas fidelity to the event demands that we not be selective in following the consequences of an event, fidelity to the eventrsquo;s retreat points to a more direct relation of philosophy to the event than Badiou allows. In the first section of our paper we outline the philosophical orientation that informs our encounter with Badioursquo;s thought. In the second we examine the relationship between philosophy and the political event in order to set the context for the elaboration of our claim in the third section that fidelity to the event calls for attention not only to the demands of its emergence but also to those associated with the eventrsquo;s retreat. In the final section we indicate how the retreat of the political event might give rise to the philosophical subject and to the requirements of a philosophy of the event.

Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

2017-12-01

Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

Historicity and theology, and the quest for historical Jesus1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Geyser

1999-12-01

Full Text Available The issue of history and historicity is reviewed in this article. The efforts of New Historicism is brought to bear on this question in an effort to find a way out of the impasse created by the modernist demand for objectivity and the postmodern resignation to radical relativism. The possibility of historiography is explored in conjunction with the pragmatic approach and leads to the conclusion that a kind of historical knowledge is attainable which can be described as useful even if not perfect. The author concurs with Crossan and his working definition of history as the past reconstructed interactively by the present through argued evidence in public discourse. The intersubjective nature of any historical enterprise leads the author to the conclusion that the search for the historical Jesus can only be done in the dialectical approach of a both ... and: both the historical Jesus and the kerygmatic Christ

Subsurface signatures and timing of extreme wave events along the ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The diagnostic event signatures include the extent and elevation of the deposits, as well as morphologic similarity ... Historical archives of the origin, timing, and impact of tsunamis, storms, and floods along the mar- gins of ... High-resolution GPR studies (by the IIT Madras group) of erosional signatures from the beach ridge.

Old ages of two historical Romanian trees assessed by AMS radiocarbon dating

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patrut, Adrian, E-mail: apatrut@gmail.com [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Reden, Karl F. von [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology and Geophysics, NOSAMS Facility, 360 Woods Hole Rd., Mailstop 8, Woods Hole, MA 02543 (United States); Lowy, Daniel A. [FlexEl, LLC, 387 Technology Drive, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Patrut, Roxana T. [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Biology and Geology, Gh. Bilascu 44, 400015 Cluj-Napoca (Romania); Lucian Vaida, D. [Museum of Border Regiment Nasaud, Granicerilor 19, 425200 Nasaud (Romania); Margineanu, Dragos [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Chemistry, Arany Janos 11, 400028 Cluj-Napoca (Romania)

2013-01-15

Two large Romanian poplars are considered to be associated with significant historical events of the past. In order to verify these claims, wood samples collected from the broken trunks of the two poplars were radiocarbon dated by AMS. The oldest radiocarbon dates were found to be 275 {+-} 20 bp for the black poplar of Mocod and 316 {+-} 22 bp for the gray poplar of Rafaila. These values correspond to calibrated ages of 365 {+-} 10 and 465 {+-} 25 years, respectively. The dating results indicate old ages for the two trees, i.e., 455 years for the Mocod poplar and 560 years for the Rafaila poplar. Such age values validate historical information on the two large Romanian trees.

Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

2004-01-01

In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion. PMID:15263069

Celestial delights the best astronomical events through 2020

CERN Document Server

Reddy, Francis

2012-01-01

Celestial Delights is the essential 'TV Guide' for the sky. Through extensive graphics integrated with an eight-year-long calendar of sky events, it provides a look at "don't miss" sky events, mostly for naked-eye and binocular observing. It is organized by ease of observation – lunar phases and the brighter planets come first, with solar eclipses, the aurora, and comets coming later. This third edition also includes a hefty dose of sky lore, astronomical history, and clear overviews of current science. It provides a handy reference to upcoming naked-eye events, with information broken out in clear and simple diagrams and tables that are cross-referenced against a detailed almanac for each year covered. This book puts a variety of information all in one place, presents it in a friendly way that does not require prior in-depth astronomical knowledge, and provides the context and historical background for understanding events that astronomy software or web sites lack.

Negated bio-events: analysis and identification

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Negation occurs frequently in scientific literature, especially in biomedical literature. It has previously been reported that around 13% of sentences found in biomedical research articles contain negation. Historically, the main motivation for identifying negated events has been to ensure their exclusion from lists of extracted interactions. However, recently, there has been a growing interest in negative results, which has resulted in negation detection being identified as a key challenge in biomedical relation extraction. In this article, we focus on the problem of identifying negated bio-events, given gold standard event annotations. Results We have conducted a detailed analysis of three open access bio-event corpora containing negation information (i.e., GENIA Event, BioInfer and BioNLP’09 ST), and have identified the main types of negated bio-events. We have analysed the key aspects of a machine learning solution to the problem of detecting negated events, including selection of negation cues, feature engineering and the choice of learning algorithm. Combining the best solutions for each aspect of the problem, we propose a novel framework for the identification of negated bio-events. We have evaluated our system on each of the three open access corpora mentioned above. The performance of the system significantly surpasses the best results previously reported on the BioNLP’09 ST corpus, and achieves even better results on the GENIA Event and BioInfer corpora, both of which contain more varied and complex events. Conclusions Recently, in the field of biomedical text mining, the development and enhancement of event-based systems has received significant interest. The ability to identify negated events is a key performance element for these systems. We have conducted the first detailed study on the analysis and identification of negated bio-events. Our proposed framework can be integrated with state-of-the-art event extraction systems. The

The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2014-05-01

Over the past decade, the production of economic indices behind the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database has allowed for the conversion of historical earthquake economic loss and cost events into today's terms using long-term spatio-temporal series of consumer price index (CPI), construction costs, wage indices, and GDP from 1900-2013. As part of the doctoral thesis of Daniell (2014), databases and GIS layers for a country and sub-country level have been produced for population, GDP per capita, net and gross capital stock (depreciated and non-depreciated) using studies, census information and the perpetual inventory method. In addition, a detailed study has been undertaken to collect and reproduce as many historical isoseismal maps, macroseismic intensity results and reproductions of earthquakes as possible out of the 7208 damaging events in the CATDAT database from 1900 onwards. a) The isoseismal database and population bounds from 3000+ collected damaging events were compared with the output parameters of GDP and net and gross capital stock per intensity bound and administrative unit, creating a spatial join for analysis. b) The historical costs were divided into shaking/direct ground motion effects, and secondary effects costs. The shaking costs were further divided into gross capital stock related and GDP related costs for each administrative unit, intensity bound couplet. c) Costs were then estimated based on the optimisation of the function in terms of costs vs. gross capital stock and costs vs. GDP via the regression of the function. Losses were estimated based on net capital stock, looking at the infrastructure age and value at the time of the event. This dataset was then used to develop an economic exposure for each historical earthquake in comparison with the loss recorded in the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database. The production of economic fragility functions for each country was possible using a temporal regression based on the parameters of

Historical Truth in Poetry: Napoleon in the Verses of Voloshin, Tyutchev, and Pushkin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivane Sh. Menteshashvili

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article examines the degree to which one can illustrate in poetry a historical phenomenon vested in an artistic form. Here the author looks into the verses of Voloshin, Tyutchev, and Pushkin: “Bonaparte”, “Napoleon”, and “Hero”. These verses bring to light Napoleon’s personality and the historical environment in which he had been working. In each of the verses, Napoleon is portrayed as a carrier of immense romantic energy, thanks to which he leaves such an ineffaceable, meteoric trace in history, and is depicted as steeped in some kind of romantic enchantment. At the same time, each of the verses brings to light the various aspects of the Napoleonic era and his deeds. Voloshin draws a colorful picture of the Great French Revolution and social-political upheavals inherent in it, within the depths of which, under the canopy of Providence, there is born a new phenomenon that is set to become in the near future an embodiment and carrier of the will of world history. Tyutchev portrays Napoleon as already quite a full-fledged phenomenon of history, a child of the revolution, which engages in a desperate and, at the same time, hopeless struggle with his “mother”, a struggle in which the hero is doomed to a tragic end. Whereas Pushkin in his verse, in the form of epic truth typical of him, presents a retrospection of the entire Napoleonic era and the whole amplitude of the activity of this phenomenal personality. And what is depicted as most remarkable, in terms of eternalizing him, is a fact that sort of stands out among a multitude of great deeds: Napoleon’s handshake with a plague-stricken man at a hospital in Egypt intended to elevate his fighting spirit. It may seem that greatness is shown here as a “non-heroic” deed, which, in turn, is a demonstration of the use of an ingenious medium by a great artist to portray greatness in what may seem as something little noticed, which is what is eternal.

EDUCATIONAL EVENT AS THE PEDAGOGICAL CATEGORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor V. Lobanov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the investigation is to reveal the essence of the educational event as a pedagogical category. The reason to study the issue is the methodological generality of the term that came into pedagogical everyday life, but which semantic content is still not clear enough. Methods. The methods involve a theoretical analysis of the philosophical and pedagogical literature on the study, the categorical analysis, surveys of students and teachers. Results. The concept content of «event» is looked upon in both historical scholarship and pedagogy, «educational event» is analyzed in unity with the «educational situation» and «educational process». The attitude of students and teachers to educational events was clarified through the surveys; emotional and rational responses of the respondents were differentiated and the peculiarities of events organization in the education system were classified. While teachers and students are considered as subjects of educational events, their goals are delineated. Scientific novelty. The author's own definition of is given. Educational event is defined as a specially organized and unique pedagogical fact limited, but not rigidly determined by the educational situation, and capable of changing the educational process going beyond the boundaries of its conformism. The formulation above is the result of analysis how the concepts of «event», «situation» and «process» may interact in pedagogical discourse. Practical significance. The results can be used while designing the educational programs and projects, as well as in the development of academic courses of innovative pedagogy. 

Damage and recovery of historic buildings: The experience of L’Aquila

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modena, Claudio; Valluzzi, Maria Rosa; Da Porto, Franca; Munari, Marco

2015-01-01

Problems range from the same definition and choice of the “conventional” safety level, to the methodologies that can be used to perform reliable structural analyses and safety verifications (as modern ones are frequently not suitable for the construction under consideration) and to the selection, design and execution of appropriate materials and interventions techniques aimed to repair and strengthen the built heritage while preserving its cultural, historic, artistic values. The earthquake that struck the Abruzzo region on 6. April 2009 at 3:32 a.m., had its epicentre in the capital of the region, L’Aquila, and seriously affected a wide area around the city, where many historic towns and villages are found. Lessons learned from this event gave relevant contributions to develop specific tools, to appropriately tackle the above mentioned problems, available to practitioner engineers and architects: methodology to intervene on complex and connected buildings in the historic centres, definition of adequate materials and techniques to intervene on the damaged buildings, codes and codes of practice specific for historic constructions. A short review of all the mentioned aspects is presented in the paper, making specific reference to research activities, practical applications and to the recent evolution of codes and guidelines [it

Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2017-06-01

The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

An Aboriginal Australian Record of the Great Eruption of Eta Carinae

Science.gov (United States)

Hamacher, Duane W.; Frew, David J.

2010-11-01

We present evidence that the Boorong Aboriginal people of northwestern Victoria observed the Great Eruption of Eta Carinae in the nineteenth century and incorporated this event into their oral traditions. We identify this star, as well as others not specifically identified by name, using descriptive material presented in the 1858 paper by William Edward Stanbridge in conjunction with early southern star catalogues. This identification of a transient astronomical event supports the assertion that Aboriginal oral traditions are dynamic and evolving, and not static. This is the only definitive indigenous record of Eta Carinae's outburst identified in the literature to date.

Science and Society: Public History in the Context of Historical Culture of the Globalization Era

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorina P. Repina

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In the XIX century known as the „historical age”, a high degree of trust to history and social prestige of historical science relied on the entrenched in public consciousness the idea of continuity of historical development of a human civilization and, respectively, of the unique opportunities of the use of the past experience as a means to solve the problems of the present and to build „the bright future”. But the understanding of the dramatic experi-ence of the XX century undermined the belief in the “use of history”, and this situation has been greatly aggravated with intensification of the processes of globalization on the bor-der of XX and XXI centuries. The problems of interaction between “academic (professional history” and the wide public in the concrete societies and the changes in their relations in the context of deep social transformations proved to take place at the center of many re-searchers’ attention. Public history is purposefully overcoming the typical for historical science of the XX century alienation from „the uninitiated”; it strives to restore the interest of the consumer to the historians’ production, to propagate professional standards, histor-ical knowledge and proper understanding of the specific character of “historian’s craft” among the wide circles of the non-professionals.

External events analysis of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liaukonis, Mindaugas; Augutis, Juozas

1999-01-01

This paper presents analysis of external events impact on the safe operation of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) safety systems. Analysis was based on the probabilistic estimation and modelling of the external hazards. The screening criteria were applied to the number of external hazards. The following external events such as aircraft failure on the INPP, external flooding, fire, extreme winds requiring further bounding study were analysed. Mathematical models were developed and event probabilities were calculated. External events analysis showed rather limited external events danger to Ignalina NPP. Results of the analysis were compared to analogous analysis in western NPPs and no great differences were specified. Calculations performed show that external events can not significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation. (author)

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in southeastern Oregon: A survey of historical localities, 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Pearl, Chistopher A.; Galvan, Stephanie K.; Adams, Michael J.; McCreary, Brome

2010-01-01

The Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) occupies a large range in western North America and is comprised of at least three genetic units. Concern exists regarding the status of the Great Basin populations in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada. We surveyed target and nearby alternate sites on public lands in southeastern Oregon where there was evidence that Columbia spotted frogs were historically present. We found the species at 59.5 percent (25 of 42) of target or nearby alternate sites. They were in 15 of 23 permanent streams and 8 of 13 intermittent streams. Our surveys do not provide evidence of widespread population losses in our sites. Interpretation of status of Columbia spotted frogs in this study is limited by a lack of precision in some of the historical locations and by our inability to determine if locations where only adults were indicated in the historical record once had breeding populations. Our results support the need for continued investigation of these populations.

The Forgotten Legacy: Sediment From Historical Gold Mining Greatly Exceeds all Other Anthropogenic Sources in SE Australian Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Rutherfurd, I.; Davies, P.; Macklin, M. G.; Grove, J. R.

2016-12-01

Coarse and fine sediment has been a major pollutant of Australian rivers and receiving waters since European settlement in 1788. Anthropogenic sediment budget models demonstrate that catchment and channel erosion has increased background sediment delivery by 10 to 20 times across SE Australia, but these estimates ignore the contribution of historical gold mining. Detailed historical records allow us to reconstruct the delivery of coarse and fine sediment (including contaminated sediment) to the fluvial system. Between 1851 and 1900 alluvial gold mining in the state of Victoria liberated between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion m3 of coarse and fine sediment into streams. Catchment scale modelling demonstrates that this volume is at least twice the volume of all anthropogenic (post-European) erosion from hillslopes, river banks, and gullies. We map the deposition and remobilization of these contaminated legacy mining sediments down selected valleys, and find that many contemporary floodplains are blanketed with mining sediments (although mercury contamination is present but low), and discrete sediment-slugs can be recognized migrating down river beds. Overall, the impact of gold mining is one of the strongest indicators of the Anthropocene in the Australian landscape, and the level of impact on rivers is substantially greater than recognized in the past. Perhaps of most interest is the rapid recovery of many river systems from the substantial impacts of gold mining. The result is that these major changes to the landscape are largely forgotten.

Great Expectations: The Persistent Effect of Institutions on Culture

OpenAIRE

Litina, Anastasia

2014-01-01

This research exploits the event of immigration to establish that institutions have a persistent effect on culture. It is argued that immigrants coming from corrupt countries, tend to overtrust the institutions at the host country. This inflated trust of immigrants is documented as the Great Expectations effect. This result is interesting and intriguing for several reasons. First, it highlights the persistent effect of institutions (at the origin coun- try) on the cultural attitudes of immigr...

Pan-European stochastic flood event set

Science.gov (United States)

Kadlec, Martin; Pinto, Joaquim G.; He, Yi; Punčochář, Petr; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Manful, Desmond; Palán, Ladislav

2017-04-01

Impact Forecasting (IF), the model development center of Aon Benfield, has been developing a large suite of catastrophe flood models on probabilistic bases for individual countries in Europe. Such natural catastrophes do not follow national boundaries: for example, the major flood in 2016 was responsible for the Europe's largest insured loss of USD3.4bn and affected Germany, France, Belgium, Austria and parts of several other countries. Reflecting such needs, IF initiated a pan-European flood event set development which combines cross-country exposures with country based loss distributions to provide more insightful data to re/insurers. Because the observed discharge data are not available across the whole Europe in sufficient quantity and quality to permit a detailed loss evaluation purposes, a top-down approach was chosen. This approach is based on simulating precipitation from a GCM/RCM model chain followed by a calculation of discharges using rainfall-runoff modelling. IF set up this project in a close collaboration with Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) regarding the precipitation estimates and with University of East Anglia (UEA) in terms of the rainfall-runoff modelling. KIT's main objective is to provide high resolution daily historical and stochastic time series of key meteorological variables. A purely dynamical downscaling approach with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used to generate the historical time series, using re-analysis data as boundary conditions. The resulting time series are validated against the gridded observational dataset E-OBS, and different bias-correction methods are employed. The generation of the stochastic time series requires transfer functions between large-scale atmospheric variables and regional temperature and precipitation fields. These transfer functions are developed for the historical time series using reanalysis data as predictors and bias-corrected CCLM simulated precipitation and temperature as

Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oros Eugen

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0. Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of Timisoara (January 2012 and March 2013 and the fourth within Hateg Basin, South Carpathians (October 2013. These sequences occurred within the epicentral areas of some strong historical earthquakes (Mw≥5.0. The main events had some macroseismic effects on people up to some few kilometers from the epicenters. Our results update the Romanian earthquakes catalogue and bring new information along the local seismic hazard sources models and seismotectonics.

An Integrated 3S and Historical Materials Analysis of the Keriya Paleoriver, NW China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Lei; Wang, Xinyuan; Cai, Heng

2014-01-01

Combining analysis of 3S (RS, GIS and GPS) and historical materials (historical records, ancient map and academic and literary writings) allows mapping of the Keriya Paleoriver of Southern Xinjiang, NW China. Keriya Paleoriver, one of the ancient Four Green Corridors which passes through the Taklimakan Desert from south to north in the Tarim Basin, recorded changes of the climate-environment in the ancient Silk Road of the region. According to the archaeological data, historical materials and paleoclimates information, its eco-environment and climate have had great changes since the 1.09Ma B.P., especially during the last 2,000 years, which has led to many famous ancient cities to be abandoned and the route of the ancient Silk Road to be moved southward. Using RS (optical and radar imagery), GIS (mapping and spatial analysis) and GPS (study area investigation), we mapped a major paleodrainage system of Keriya River, which have linked the Kunlun Mountains to the Tienshan Mountains through the Taklimakan Desert, possibly as far back as the early Pleistocene. This study illustrates the capability of the 3S and historical materials, in mapping the Keriya Paleoriver drainage networks and archaeological study on the ancient Silk Road

An Integrated 3S and Historical Materials Analysis of the Keriya Paleoriver, NW China

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Lei; Wang, Xinyuan; Cai, Heng

2014-03-01

Combining analysis of 3S (RS, GIS and GPS) and historical materials (historical records, ancient map and academic and literary writings) allows mapping of the Keriya Paleoriver of Southern Xinjiang, NW China. Keriya Paleoriver, one of the ancient Four Green Corridors which passes through the Taklimakan Desert from south to north in the Tarim Basin, recorded changes of the climate-environment in the ancient Silk Road of the region. According to the archaeological data, historical materials and paleoclimates information, its eco-environment and climate have had great changes since the 1.09Ma B.P., especially during the last 2,000 years, which has led to many famous ancient cities to be abandoned and the route of the ancient Silk Road to be moved southward. Using RS (optical and radar imagery), GIS (mapping and spatial analysis) and GPS (study area investigation), we mapped a major paleodrainage system of Keriya River, which have linked the Kunlun Mountains to the Tienshan Mountains through the Taklimakan Desert, possibly as far back as the early Pleistocene. This study illustrates the capability of the 3S and historical materials, in mapping the Keriya Paleoriver drainage networks and archaeological study on the ancient Silk Road.

From County Cork to New York: The Emigration of Megan O'Rourke (A Work of Historical Fiction).

Science.gov (United States)

Social Education, 2000

2000-01-01

Presents the story of Megan O'Rourke and her family from their life in Ireland, the experience of living through the Great Irish Famine, and their journey to New York City. States that this is a work of historical fiction. Includes a glossary of terms, questions, and activities. (CMK)

Visitor satisfaction of international cultural events in Belgrade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zečević Bojan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In modern tourism, events are of great importance. The increase in the number of events on a global scale has influenced the growth of competitive pressure and the need for a marketing approach in managing event development. Consumer satisfaction (service user is one of the basic elements in managing tourism development generally seen, and thus it is also important to manage and measure the satisfaction of event visitors. The satisfaction of event visitors is important bearing in mind its influence onto passing over positive experience, re-visits and tourism affirmation in areas where the event takes place. The paper analyzes the visitor satisfaction of three most important cultural events in Belgrade-BITEF, Jazz Festival and Belgrade book fair. The focus of the analysis is on visitor satisfaction which is the result of event participation, the contents which the event offers, as well as the following tourism contents of Belgrade, as a tourism destination. The analysis has been conducted based on an empirical research in which 450 participants, event visitors, took part in.

78 FR 20454 - Safety Zones; Annual Events Requiring Safety Zones in the Captain of the Port Lake Michigan Zone

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-05

... Zone. The last three entries within this rule have been added for races in the Chicago, IL area and on... written--Celebrate Americafest/Fire over the Fox. This event has historically involved both a fireworks... day of the event. To ensure the safety of the Celebrate Americafest/Fire over the Fox event in its...

An evaluation of how downscaled climate data represents historical precipitation characteristics beyond the means and variances

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kusangaya, S

2016-09-01

Full Text Available represented the underlying historical precipitation characteristics beyond the means and variances. Using the uMngeni Catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa as a case study, the occurrence of rainfall, rainfall threshold events and wet dry sequence...

Dylan Thomas’s “Fern Hill”: The Poets’s Passion for Auden’s Greatness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Bharadwaj

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The poem “Fern Hill” is interpreted as autobiographical and reminiscent of Dylan Thomas’s boyhood holidays. A reading of the figurative language of the poem, the process of playing with its tropes can be the basis of right interpretation independent of the poet’s life or an historical context. As the poem seeks to be persuasive and objective, it relies more on rhetorics suggesting the sufferings of the fallen poets of the thirties and the war poet of the forties owing to their wild love of the transcendental art of W.H.Auden’s Poems (1930 considered as touchstone of great poetry and a hope for self-advancement in life. However, it is the paradoxical poems of Thomas and his vicarious poetical character that have rehabilitated and revamped the depressed poets. “Fern Hill” reaffirms and reassures the continuation of the same sceptic poetic tradition and culture which Thomas has cherished in all the preceeding and the succeeding poems. What this paper, keeping the contemporary poets’s passion for Auden’s greatness and glory, their dreams and destinations as focal point, strives to convey is the liberating power of Thomas’s moral disinterestedness, his vicarious comic vision and his poetic process of life-in-death contrasted with  the amoral aesthetic disinterestedness of Auden, his historic tradition and his poetic process of death-in-life.

Entanglement and Transnational Transfer in the History of Infant Schools in Great Britain and "Salles D'asile" in France, 1816-1881

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, Kaspar

2014-01-01

The historical developments of infant schools in Great Britain and "salles d'asile" in France--both precursors of present-day preschools--were interconnected. However, historians have not yet analysed specifically how transnational exchange influenced the growth and nature of these institutions. Drawing on archival data and secondary…

Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lamb Rob

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Localised erosion (scour during flood flow conditions can lead to costly damage or catastrophic failure of bridges, and in some cases loss of life or significant disruption to transport networks. Here, we take a broad scale view to assess risk associated with bridge scour during flood events over an entire infrastructure network, illustrating the analysis with data from the British railways. There have been 54 recorded events since 1846 in which scour led to the failure of railway bridges in Britain. These events tended to occur during periods of extremely high river flow, although there is uncertainty about the precise conditions under which failures occur, which motivates a probabilistic analysis of the failure events. We show how data from the historical bridge failures, combined with hydrological analysis, have been used to construct fragility curves that quantify the conditional probability of bridge failure as a function of river flow, accompanied by estimates of the associated uncertainty. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a national, spatial joint probability model for extremes in river flows. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event, and provide an empirical basis for further broad-scale network risk analysis.

Historical an insight into the teaching of philosophy in Cuba

OpenAIRE

Anna Lidia Beltrán-Marín; Greten Lauren Blanco-Montesino; Lesly León-Montesino

2018-01-01

The teaching of philosophy in Cuba has been related to events in economic and political life, which leads to the boundaries between the various stages of its teaching are linked to the transformations of its general historical evolution. This work aims to contribute to the training of educational professional’s specialties of history and marxism, and to expand cuban philosophical historiography. Among other methods, analysis and synthesis and logical history were used, complemented by an in-d...

Historical aspects of the discovery of plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, David L.

2016-01-01

The historical events that led up to the discovery of plutonium and subsequently, how that discovery helped shape the modern period table of the elements, and ushered in a new era of nuclear science and technology are discussed. When the first of the transuranium elements, neptunium was discovered, it was realized that the radioactive βdecay of "2"3"9Np should lead to the formation of element 94. The scale of the experiments at that time, however, precluded its identification. Plutonium was first produced late in 1940 by Seaborg, McMillan, Kennedy, and Wahl1,2 by bombarding uranium with deuterons to produce the isotope "2"3"8Pu

Near-Bed Monitoring of Suspended Sediment during a Major Flood Event Highlights Deficiencies in Existing Event-Loading Estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alistair Grinham

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Rates of fluvial sediment discharge are notoriously difficult to quantify, particularly during major flood events. Measurements are typically undertaken using event stations requiring large capital investment, and the high cost tends to reduce the spatial coverage of monitoring sites. This study aimed to characterise the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics during a major flood event using a low-cost approach. Monitoring nodes consisted of a total suspended sediment (TSS logger, a single stage sampler, and a time-lapse camera for a total cost of less than US$420. Seven nodes were deployed across an elevation gradient on the stream bank of Laidley Creek, Queensland, Australia, and two of these nodes successfully characterised the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics across a major flood event. Near-bed TSS concentrations were closely related to stream flow, with the contribution of suspended bed material dominating the total suspended load during peak flows. Observed TSS concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than historical monitoring data for this site collected using the State government event station. This difference was attributed to the event station pump inlet screening the suspended bed material prior to sample collection. The ‘first flush’ phenomenon was detected and attributed to a local resuspension of muddy crusts immediately upstream of the study site. This low-cost approach will provide an important addition to the existing monitoring of fluvial sediment discharge during flood events.

Tsunami Research Status in IAEA after Fukushima Event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil

2012-01-01

On March 11 th , 2011, a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred on the east coast of Japan. This 9.0 magnitude earthquake was the fifth greatest earthquake ever experienced on the planet. The most remarkable problem was that the Fukishima NPP sites. After Japan earthquake, many international researches about tsunami and earthquake event were started or revised. Especially, the most remarkable point of the great earthquake in east coast of Japan was tsunami event. Before this earthquake, the Niigata earthquake occurred in 2007 and the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant had little damaged. The research about the safety of nuclear power plant against earthquake events was activated by 2007 Niigata earthquake. However, the researches about a tsunami event were very few and only tsunami simulation was only focused. After the Fukushima accident, the international society became very interested in tsunami event as a major external event. Therefore in this study, the tsunami research status in IAEA after Fukushima event and the role of Korea are introduced

Interpreting transnational infrastructure vulnerability: European blackout and the historical dynamics of transnational electricity governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vleuten, Erik van der; Lagendijk, Vincent

2010-01-01

Recent transnational blackouts exposed two radically opposed interpretations of Europe's electricity infrastructure, which inform recent and ongoing negotiations on transnational electricity governance. To EU policy makers such blackouts revealed the fragility of Europe's power grids and the need of a more centralized form of governance, thus legitimizing recent EU interventions. Yet to power sector spokespersons, these events confirmed the reliability of transnational power grids and the traditional decentralized governance model: the disturbances were quickly contained and repaired. This paper inquires the historic legacies at work in these conflicting interpretations and associated transnational governance preferences. It traces the power sector's interpretation to its building of a secure transnational power grid from the 1950s through the era of neoliberalization. Next it places the EU interpretation and associated policy measures against the historical record of EU attempts at transnational infrastructure governance. Uncovering the historical roots and embedding of both interpretations, we conclude that their divergence is of a surprisingly recent date and relates to the current era of security thinking. Finally we recommend transnational, interpretative, and historical analysis to the field of critical infrastructure studies.

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D

[Diego Rivera: a great master and a didactic and discerning medical historian].

Science.gov (United States)

Cabello C, Felipe

2014-11-01

Diego Rivera is one of the artistic giants of the 20th century. His many original creations included landscapes, portraits and large murals created in both Mexico and the United States. Rivera ventured into many styles-cubism, naturalism and narrative realism-with great success. Rivera's murals build on those of the Renaissance, pre-historic and colonial civilizations of Mexico. Biological and medical topics and their history form an important concern in Rivera's work, present in many of his murals in a highly informative and creative manner. His two History of Cardiology murals present an original and comprehensive account of the developments of this medical specialty from pre-historic to modern times. His History of Medicine in Mexico (The people demands health) mural is a creatively and vigorously fashioned and highly dynamic and synthetic vision of the relationships between pre-historic and modern medicine in Mexico and its social foundations. Medical topics such as vaccines and vaccination, embryology and surgery are inventively and accurately presented in the large mural, Detroit Industry. The trigger and impetus for the concern of Rivera for these topics of life and death, and the exceedingly ground-breaking way he presents them, appear to stem from his rational materialism, his concern for collective wellbeing, his belief in progress through scientific developments and political action and his commitment to understand Mexican and American history.

Navigating the Great Recession: what role for monetary policy?

OpenAIRE

Bank for International Settlements

2013-01-01

The 12th BIS Annual Conference took place in Lucerne, Switzerland on 20-21 June 2013. The event brought together a distinguished group of central bank governors, leading academics and former public officials to exchange views on the conference theme of "Navigating the Great Recession: what role for monetary policy?". This volume contains the opening address by Stephen Cecchetti (former Economic Adviser, BIS), a keynote address by Finn Kydland (University of California, Santa Barbara) and the ...

Impact of external events on site evaluation: a probabilistic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaccarino, E.; Giuliani, P.; Zaffiro, C.

1975-01-01

A probabilistic method is proposed for definition of the reference external events of nuclear sites. The external events taken into account are earthquakes, floods and tornadoes. On the basis of the available historical data for each event it is possible to perform statistical analyses to determine the probability of occurrence on site of events of given characteristics. For earthquakes, the method of analysis takes into consideration both the annual frequency of seismic events in Italy and the probabilistic distribution of areas stricken by each event. For floods, the methods of analysis of hydrological data and the basic criteria for the determination of design events are discussed and the general lines of the hydraulic analysis of a nuclear site are shown. For tornadoes, the statistical analysis has been performed for the events which occurred in Italy during the last 40 years; these events have been classified according to an empirical intensity scale. The probability of each reference event should be a function of the potential radiological damage associated with the particular type of plant which must be installed on the site. Thus the reference event could be chosen such that for the whole of the national territory the risk for safety and environmental protection is the same. (author)

Semantic Complex Event Processing over End-to-End Data Flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Qunzhi [University of Southern California; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

2012-04-01

Emerging Complex Event Processing (CEP) applications in cyber physical systems like SmartPower Grids present novel challenges for end-to-end analysis over events, flowing from heterogeneous information sources to persistent knowledge repositories. CEP for these applications must support two distinctive features - easy specification patterns over diverse information streams, and integrated pattern detection over realtime and historical events. Existing work on CEP has been limited to relational query patterns, and engines that match events arriving after the query has been registered. We propose SCEPter, a semantic complex event processing framework which uniformly processes queries over continuous and archived events. SCEPteris built around an existing CEP engine with innovative support for semantic event pattern specification and allows their seamless detection over past, present and future events. Specifically, we describe a unified semantic query model that can operate over data flowing through event streams to event repositories. Compile-time and runtime semantic patterns are distinguished and addressed separately for efficiency. Query rewriting is examined and analyzed in the context of temporal boundaries that exist between event streams and their repository to avoid duplicate or missing results. The design and prototype implementation of SCEPterare analyzed using latency and throughput metrics for scenarios from the Smart Grid domain.

Historical research in the Hanford site waste cleanup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerber, Michele S.

1992-01-01

This paper will acquaint the audience with role of historical research in the Hanford Site waste cleanup - the largest waste cleanup endeavor ever undertaken in human history. There were no comparable predecessors to this massive waste remediation effort, but the Hanford historical record can provide a partial road map and guide. It can be, and is, a useful tool in meeting the goal of a successful, cost-effective, safe and technologically exemplary waste cleanup. The Hanford historical record is rich and complex. Yet, it poses difficult challenges, in that no central and complete repository or data base exists, records contain obscure code words and code numbers, and the measurement systems and terminology used in the records change many times over the years. Still, these records are useful to the current waste cleanup in technical ways, and in ways that extend beyond a strictly scientific aspect. Study and presentations of Hanford Site history contribute to the huge educational and outreach tasks of helping the Site's work force deal with 'culture change' and become motivated for the cleanup work that is ahead, and of helping the public and the regulators to place the events at Hanford in the context of WWII and the Cold War. This paper traces historical waste practices and policies as they changed over the years at the Hanford Site, and acquaints the audience with the generation of the major waste streams of concern in Hanford Site cleanup today. It presents original, primary-source research into the waste history of the Hanford Site. The earliest, 1940s knowledge base, assumptions and calculations about radioactive and chemical discharges, as discussed in the memos, correspondence and reports of the original Hanford Site (then Hanford Engineer Works) builders and operators, are reviewed. The growth of knowledge, research efforts, and subsequent changes in Site waste disposal policies and practices are traced. Examples of the strengths and limitations of the

Some historical glimpses on the discovery of x-rays and radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patil, S.K.

1996-01-01

In the last decade of the nineteenth century, a cascade of a number of scientific discoveries of great importance took place. The first of these was the discovery of x-rays which marked the beginning of a new era in physics and this was soon followed by the discovery of radioactivity. Both x-rays and radioactivity have wide applications in basic science, technology and medicine. Some glimpses on the historical aspects of the discovery of x-rays and radioactivity are presented. (author). 72 refs., 1 fig

Old ages of two historical Romanian trees assessed by AMS radiocarbon dating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patrut, Adrian; Reden, Karl F. von; Lowy, Daniel A.; Patrut, Roxana T.; Lucian Vaida, D.; Margineanu, Dragos

2013-01-01

Two large Romanian poplars are considered to be associated with significant historical events of the past. In order to verify these claims, wood samples collected from the broken trunks of the two poplars were radiocarbon dated by AMS. The oldest radiocarbon dates were found to be 275 ± 20 bp for the black poplar of Mocod and 316 ± 22 bp for the gray poplar of Rafaila. These values correspond to calibrated ages of 365 ± 10 and 465 ± 25 years, respectively. The dating results indicate old ages for the two trees, i.e., 455 years for the Mocod poplar and 560 years for the Rafaila poplar. Such age values validate historical information on the two large Romanian trees.

Literature and History--A Focus on the Era of the Great Depression and World War II (1929-1945).

Science.gov (United States)

Ahern, John; Sandmann, Alexa

1997-01-01

Provides an annotated bibliography and suggested teaching activities for units on the Great Depression and World War II. The materials support inquiry into the causes of the Great Depression and World War II and how these events transformed U.S. society. The annotated bibliography includes novels, memoirs, biographies, and political studies. (MJP)

National Register Historic Districts

Data.gov (United States)

Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — The National Register Historic District layer is a shape file showing the boundaries of Historic Districts that are listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

Hydrological simulation of flood transformations in the upper Danube River: Case study of large flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitková Veronika Bačová

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria to Štúrovo (Slovakia under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975. Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501 is discussed.

Assessing Canadian inventories to understand the environmental impacts of mercury releases to the Great Lakes region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trip, Luke; Bender, Tonya; Niemi, David

2004-01-01

North American pollutant release and transfer registries have been continuously developing with an eye to understanding source/receptor relationships and ensuring that the polluter-paid principle is applied to the appropriate parties. The potential contribution of mercury to the Great Lakes Basin arising from the rerelease of historic mercury pollution from contaminated aquatic and terrestrial media is poorly understood and the subject of concern. Although a considerable amount of data may be available on the atmospheric component of mercury releases to the Basin, further inventory work is needed to quantify the rerelease of the historic mercury. Much of the related existing inventory information is either not derived from direct measurement or not bounded by a mass-balance accounting. Critical to this determination is an increased confidence in the inventories of mercury from past and current practices. This may be enhanced through comprehensive and thorough surveys of contributions from specific products and their life-cycle assessments. An even greater challenge is to determine the bioavailability of the mercury emanating from land-based sources and from aquatic media. This paper describes the interplay among the sources and receptors of mercury and provides a quantitative assessment of current Canadian contributions of mercury as a contaminant to the Great Lakes. Recommendations for improved assessments are provided

Paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in Australia: Implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions

Science.gov (United States)

Crone, A.J.; De Martini, P. M.; Machette, M.M.; Okumura, K.; Prescott, J.R.

2003-01-01

Paleoseismic studies of two historically aseismic Quaternary faults in Australia confirm that cratonic faults in stable continental regions (SCR) typically have a long-term behavior characterized by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10,000 and commonly 100,000 years or more. Studies of the approximately 30-km-long Roopena fault in South Australia and the approximately 30-km-long Hyden fault in Western Australia document multiple Quaternary surface-faulting events that are unevenly spaced in time. The episodic clustering of events on cratonic SCR faults may be related to temporal fluctuations of fault-zone fluid pore pressures in a volume of strained crust. The long-term slip rate on cratonic SCR faults is extremely low, so the geomorphic expression of many cratonic SCR faults is subtle, and scarps may be difficult to detect because they are poorly preserved. Both the Roopena and Hyden faults are in areas of limited or no significant seismicity; these and other faults that we have studied indicate that many potentially hazardous SCR faults cannot be recognized solely on the basis of instrumental data or historical earthquakes. Although cratonic SCR faults may appear to be nonhazardous because they have been historically aseismic, those that are favorably oriented for movement in the current stress field can and have produced unexpected damaging earthquakes. Paleoseismic studies of modern and prehistoric SCR faulting events provide the basis for understanding of the long-term behavior of these faults and ultimately contribute to better seismic-hazard assessments.

Geochemistry of sediments in the Back Bay and Yellowknife Bay of the Great Slave Lake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mudroch, A.; Joshi, S.R.; Sutherland, D.; Mudroch, P.; Dickson, K.M.

1989-01-01

Gold mining activities have generated wastes with high concentrations of arsenic and zinc in the vicinity of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Some of the waste material has been discharged into Yellowknife Bay of Great Slave Lake. Concentrations of arsenic and zinc were determined in sediment cores collected at the depositional areas of Yellowknife Bay. Sedimentation rates were estimated using two different radiometric approaches: the depth profiles of cesium 137 and lead 210. Geochemical analysis of the sediment cores indicated input of similar material into sampling areas over the past 50 yr. Age profiles of the sediment constructed from the radionuclide measurements were used to determine historical trends of arsenic and zinc inputs into Yellowknife Bay. The historical record was in good agreement with implemented remedial actions and the usage patterns of both elements. 16 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Statistical analysis of solar proton events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Kurt

2004-06-01

Full Text Available A new catalogue of 253 solar proton events (SPEs with energy >10MeV and peak intensity >10 protons/cm2.s.sr (pfu at the Earth's orbit for three complete 11-year solar cycles (1970-2002 is given. A statistical analysis of this data set of SPEs and their associated flares that occurred during this time period is presented. It is outlined that 231 of these proton events are flare related and only 22 of them are not associated with Ha flares. It is also noteworthy that 42 of these events are registered as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs in neutron monitors. The longitudinal distribution of the associated flares shows that a great number of these events are connected with west flares. This analysis enables one to understand the long-term dependence of the SPEs and the related flare characteristics on the solar cycle which are useful for space weather prediction.

EVENT GENERATOR FOR RHIC SPIN PHYSICS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SAITO, N.; SCHAEFER, A.

1999-01-01

This volume archives the reports from the RIKEN BNL Research Center workshop on ''Event Generator for RHIC Spin Physics II'' held during the week March 15, 1999 at Brookhaven National Laboratory. It was the second meeting on the subject following a first one in last September. This workshop has been initiated to establish a firm collaboration between theorists and experimentalists involved in RHIC spin physics with the aim of developing a reliable, high-precision event generator for RHIC spin physics. Needless to say, adequate event generators are indispensable tools for high energy physics programs in general, especially in the process of: planning the experimental programs; developing algorithms to extract the physics signals of interest; estimating the background in the extracted results, and connecting the final particle kinematics to the fundamental i.e. partonic level processes. Since RHIC is the first polarized collider, dedicated efforts are required to obtain a full-fledged event generator which describes spin dependent reactions in great detail

Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2015-12-01

Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

Diagnosis of balance between Heritage, housing and tourism in historic centers: case studies from Porto (Portugal and Salvador (Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alice Tavares

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The sustainability of cultural values of historic centers depends, to a great extent, on the balance achieved between maintaining the resident population, preventing housing abandonment, and reconciling the new functions installed in those centers. Nowadays, tourism is seen as a solution to reactivate historic centers, often neglecting the original resident population. This study analyzes two examples of urban rehabilitation in historic centers, one in Portugal and another in Brazil, respectively, Porto and Salvador da Bahia, with 1996 and 1985 UNESCO classifications, respectively. The present study analyses the interaction between the evolution of building stock, renting and tourism, focusing on aspects that result in positive and negative actions for the preservation of the built heritage of these centers, their identity and exclusion of traditional residents.

Public Sector Employment Inequality in the United States and the Great Recession.

Science.gov (United States)

Laird, Jennifer

2017-02-01

Historically in the United States, the public sector has served as an equalizing institution through the expansion of job opportunities for minority workers. This study examines whether the public sector continues to serve as an equalizing institution in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Using data from the Current Population Survey, I investigate changes in public sector employment between 2003 and 2013. My results point to a post-recession double disadvantage for black public sector workers: they are concentrated in a shrinking sector of the economy, and they are more likely than white and Hispanic public sector workers to experience job loss. These two trends are a historical break for the public sector labor market. I find that race and ethnicity gaps in public sector employment cannot be explained by differences in education, occupation, or any of the other measurable factors that are typically associated with employment. Among unemployed workers who most recently worked for the public sector, black women are the least likely to transition into private sector employment.

Environmental conditions and microbial community structure during the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event; a multi-disciplinary study from the Canning Basin, Western Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Spaak, Gemma; Edwards, Dianne S.; Foster, Clinton B.; Pagès, Anais; Summons, Roger E.; Sherwood, Neil; Grice, Kliti

2017-12-01

The Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE) is regarded as one of the most significant evolutionary events in the history of Phanerozoic life. The present study integrates palynological, petrographic, molecular and stable isotopic (δ13C of biomarkers) analyses of cores from four boreholes that intersected the Goldwyer Formation, Canning Basin, Western Australia, to determine depositional environments and microbial diversity within a Middle Ordovician epicontinental, tropical sea. Data from this study indicate lateral and temporal variations in lipid biomarker assemblages extracted from Goldwyer Formation rock samples. These variations likely reflect changing redox conditions between the upper (Unit 4) and lower (Units 1 + 2) Goldwyer, which is largely consistent with existing depositional models for the Goldwyer Formation. Cryptospores were identified in Unit 4 in the Theia-1 well and are most likely derived from bryophyte-like plants, making this is the oldest record of land plants in Australian Middle Ordovician strata. Biomarkers in several samples from Unit 4 that also support derivation from terrestrial organic matter include benzonaphthofurans and δ13C-depleted mid-chain n-alkanes. Typical Ordovician marine organisms including acritarchs, chitinozoans, conodonts and graptolites were present in the lower and upper Goldwyer Formation, whereas the enigmatic organism Gloeocapsomorpha prisca (G. prisca) was only detected in Unit 4. The correlation of a strong G. prisca biosignature with high 3-methylhopane indices and 13C depleted G. prisca-derived chemical fossils (biomarkers) is interpreted to suggest an ecological relationship between methanotrophs and G. prisca. This research contributes to a greater understanding of Ordovician marine environments from a molecular perspective since few biomarker studies have been undertaken on age-equivalent sections. Furthermore, the identification of the oldest cryptospores in Australia and their corresponding

Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsworth, Tracy D; Heron, Scott F; Ortiz, Juan Carlos; Mumby, Peter J; Grech, Alana; Ogawa, Daisie; Eakin, C Mark; Leggat, William

2016-04-15

Coral bleaching events threaten the sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here we show that bleaching events of the past three decades have been mitigated by induced thermal tolerance of reef-building corals, and this protective mechanism is likely to be lost under near-future climate change scenarios. We show that 75% of past thermal stress events have been characterized by a temperature trajectory that subjects corals to a protective, sub-bleaching stress, before reaching temperatures that cause bleaching. Such conditions confer thermal tolerance, decreasing coral cell mortality and symbiont loss during bleaching by over 50%. We find that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities

Science.gov (United States)

Worthington, Thomas A.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Mueller, Julia

2014-01-01

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375–780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.

Achieving High Resolution Timer Events in Virtualized Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamczyk, Blazej; Chydzinski, Andrzej

2015-01-01

Virtual Machine Monitors (VMM) have become popular in different application areas. Some applications may require to generate the timer events with high resolution and precision. This however may be challenging due to the complexity of VMMs. In this paper we focus on the timer functionality provided by five different VMMs-Xen, KVM, Qemu, VirtualBox and VMWare. Firstly, we evaluate resolutions and precisions of their timer events. Apparently, provided resolutions and precisions are far too low for some applications (e.g. networking applications with the quality of service). Then, using Xen virtualization we demonstrate the improved timer design that greatly enhances both the resolution and precision of achieved timer events.

HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

Science.gov (United States)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-03-01

The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE" target="_blank">https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

Marine redox structure at the culmination of the Great Oxidation Event: Insights from the Zaonega Formation, Karelia, Russia

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Kipp, M.; Lepland, A.; Buick, R.

2017-12-01

The availability of dissolved oxygen is thought to have been the dominant throttle on the evolution and diversification of eukaryotic life during the Proterozoic Eon [1]. In the mid-Proterozoic, during the interval that presaged the rise of eukaryotes to ecological dominance, oxygen scarcity is thought to have relegated eukaryotic organisms to slivers of oxygenated shallow oceans [2]. However, recent work has suggested that oxygen levels rose dramatically during the early Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event before crashing to the low levels of the mid-Proterozoic [3]. Evidence from selenium isotopes in shales [4] and iodate concentrations in carbonates [5] has even suggested that wide swathes of continental shelves were oxic enough to support eukaryotic organisms at this time. How oxic though, and for how long, remain poorly constrained. Here we present new selenium geochemical data from the Zaonega Formation of Karelia, Russia that can help resolve those questions. Previous work has proposed that the Zaonega Formation, and correlative Francevillian Series of Gabon, record the establishment of an oxygen-rich atmosphere at the culmination of the GOE [6]. Our selenium isotope dataset provides a test for this hypothesis, and can also be used to assess the preservation of the geochemical signatures in the Zaonega Formation. These data point to regional redox fluctuations, but due to the short marine residence time of selenium, extrapolating these results to global phenomena remains difficult. 1. Reinhard, et al (2016) PNAS 2. Planavsky, et al (2014) Science 3. Bekker and Holland (2012) EPSL 4. Kipp, et al (2017) PNAS 5. Hardisty, et al (2014) Geology 6. Kump, et al (2011) Science

The Literal and the Literary: A Note on the Historical References in Isabel Allende's La casa de los espíritus

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Scott Macdonald Frame

2003-06-01

Full Text Available Stripped of much of its individuality as a piece of literature and relegated to the niche set aside for women's writing, Isabel Allende's La casa de los espíritus has sometimes wrongfully been critically condemned as a mere facsimile of García Màrquez's seminal Latin American novel. However, if critics were to reexamine La casa de los espíritus as a work of fiction in which its writer attempts to give voice to, and achieve personal closure of, historical events so tragically real for her, its comparisons with that "other" Latin American novel might be less frequent. This article contends that Allende uses a mixture of traceable historical facts, unsubstantiated personal accounts, and urban myths perpetuated by popular hearsay to present a plausible version of what could have happened during the events surrounding the fall of Salvador Allende on September 11, 1973. The crux of the argument presented will be that by superimposing unsubstantiated or distorted fact and local myth, Allende calls into play an understanding of traceable historical referents and creates a sense of associative identification between the reader and the text and the characters within. This reconstituted image provides a reinterpretation of what happened, a plausible scenario by means of which one can negotiate or interpret the varying shades of "truth" associated with the events as they may have occurred. This article further argues that through the use of familiar and identifiable images of a closer-to-the-fact fictionalization of real historical incidences, Allende is able to create a more credible characterization and historicity in the novel as well as sensitise her target reader to the resultant social and political changes of what many of her countrymen consider the single most fateful day in their nation's history.

Statics of historic masonry constructions

CERN Document Server

Como, Mario

2016-01-01

This successful book, which is now appearing in its second edition, presents a comprehensive new Statics of Masonry Constructions. Masonry constructions are the great majority of the buildings in Europe’s historic centres and the most important monuments in its architectural heritage. Given the age of these constructions, the demand for safety assessments and restoration projects is pressing and constant. The book you hold in hands contributes to fill this demand. The second edition integrates the original text of the first edition with new developments, widening and revisions, due to recent research studies achievements. The result is a book that gives a complete picture of the behaviour of the Masonry Constructions. First of all, it gives the fundamentals of its Statics, based on the no-tension assumption, and then it develops the Limit Analysis for the Masonry Constructions. In this framework, through an interdisciplinary approach combining Engineering and Architecture, the book also investigates the sta...

Democracy and Historical Writing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Baets, Antoon

2015-01-01

In this essay, we try to clarify the relationship between democracy and historical writing. The strategy is first exploring the general relationship between democracy and historical awareness, and then, studying the relationship between democracy and historical writing itself to find out whether

Interpretation of Historical Facts in Modern Italian Literature by the Example of Umberto Eco’s Novel “Baudolino”

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Oxana Yu. Mushtanova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to interpretation of historical facts in Umberto Eco's novel " Baudolino ". The subject of interpretation in the novel is medieval history, in particular, the reign of the emperor Frederick Barbarossa. Eco uses the typical for the historical novel method, which is the combination of facts from chronicles and fictional elements; the events are shown by the eyes of an invented character Baudolino. Emphasizing the connection between history and modernity, Eco proposes to revise the stereotypes associated with the mentioned historical period. The portraits of historical figures are borrowed from the chronicles, however in the novel they get more emotional in the perception of the protagonist, typical cliches are replaced by individuality. The opposition of italian communes to the government of Frederick also becomes a part of Baudolino's personal history. The interpretation of many events is based on legendary sources, including local tales of the italian city Alessandria, the legends of Grail and of Prester John. The legendary material fills in the gaps in medieval history. Many events (in particular, the participation of Barbarossa in the Third Crusade correspond to the chronicles in the descriptive part, however they acquire a fictional motivation. The mystery of the emperor's death is solved in a detective key. The novel presents various doctrines elaborated in the imperial office of Frederick, their authorship is attributed to Baudolino. In the novel «Baudolino» Umberto Eco not only interprets creatively certain facts of the past, but he also practices the postmodern concept of history, according to which the past is unknowable as objective and ultimate truth and therefore it exists only in the form of a narrative. The past and the present have no fundamental difference, the history is always interpreted from the perspective of the present.

Malé zamyšlení nad velkým tématem // Small reflection on great topic

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Zdeněk Beneš

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The text is an initial reflection on a question addressed in this issue of the magazine History — Questions — Problems (Historie — Otázky — Problémy. In our country, the topic of historical, and therefore historian’s judgement, especially on the ethical plane, is not often frequented on the reflected, theoretical or methodological level. But it is, and necessarily so, permanently present implicitly, that is, in one way or another, a judgement passed about a historical event or another historical judgement. This paper is but a reflection and does not pass categorical judgements. It only attempts to characterise selected aspects of the problem that are related to the other texts published in this issue of HOP, which in themselves are of similar nature

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

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Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

The Centrality of Ethnic Community and the Military Service Master Frame in Hmong Americans’ Protest Events and Cycles of Protest, 1980-2010

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Yang Sao Xiong

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Protest is one political strategy by which marginalized groups can try to effect social change in society. As an ethnic group with a unique historical relationship with the United States government, Hmong former refugees have regularly engaged in protests in response to perceived political threats, political opportunities, or both. Using cataloged English-language newspapers, this study examines the characteristics, forms and collective action frames of 84 Hmong American-led protest events in the United States between 1980 and 2010. The evidence indicates that Hmong American protests emerged in the 1990s, coinciding with their formation of socioeconomically mobile ethnic communities, and continued to increase in frequency throughout the 2000s particularly in places with substantial concentrations of Hmong. Although most Hmong protest events involved demonstrations, these events varied greatly in terms of their targets and issues. During the past 30-35 years, Hmong American cycles of protest have produced three master frames: the refugee protection frame, the military service frame, and the civil rights frame. I argue that the military service frame represents one of the most enduring and, to date, most potent collective action frames in Hmong Americans’ modern repertoire of contention. Immigrant groups’ increasingly developed communities and their strategic use of collective action frames could have significant implications for their political incorporation in the United States.

Measuring leg movements during sleep using accelerometry: comparison with EMG and piezo-electric scored events.

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Terrill, Philip I; Leong, Matthew; Barton, Katrina; Freakley, Craig; Downey, Carl; Vanniekerk, Mark; Jorgensen, Greg; Douglas, James

2013-01-01

Periodic Limb Movements during Sleep (PLMS) can cause significant disturbance to sleep, resulting in daytime sleepiness and reduced quality of life. In conventional clinical practice, PLMS are measured using overnight electromyogram (EMG) of the tibialis anterior muscle, although historically they have also been measured using piezo-electric gauges placed over the muscle. However, PLMS counts (PLM index) do not correlate well with clinical symptomology. In this study, we propose that because EMG and piezo derived signals measure muscle activation rather than actual movement, they may count events with no appreciable movement of the limb and therefore no contribution to sleep disturbance. The aim of this study is thus to determine the percentage of clinically scored limb movements which are not associated with movement of the great toe measured using accelerometry. 9 participants were studied simultaneously with an overnight diagnostic polysomnogram (including EMG and piezo instrumentation of the right leg) and high temporal resolution accelerometry of the right great toe. Limb movements were scored, and peak acceleration during each scored movement was quantified. Across the participant population, 54.9% (range: 26.7-76.3) and 39.0% (range: 4.8-69.6) of limb movements scored using piezo and EMG instrumentation respectively, were not associated with toe movement measured with accelerometry. If sleep disturbance is the consequence of the limb movements, these results may explain why conventional piezo or EMG derived PLMI is poorly correlated with clinical symptomology.

Community College Presidents' Perspectives of Dichotomous Events: The Consequences of the Great Recession & Coincidental Increased Enrollment

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Corey W.

2013-01-01

The community college, like all of higher education, has been significantly impacted by the Great Recession and coincidental increased enrollment. The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the decision making processes of community college presidents as related to resource allocation and the impact of these decisions on the…

RE-USING OF THE HISTORICAL BUILDINGS IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLITY: AN ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN STUDIO STUDY ON OLD GIRLS TEACHER TRAINING SCHOOL

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M. Ulusoy

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Refunctioning is a widely used method for protecting historical structures. However, throughout architectural education, functioning historical structures and producing new designs in terms of historical pattern do not attract great attention within the framework of design studios. It is a fact that in such schools that abovementioned items are more popular, the connection between protection oriented studio and design studio is pretty weak. In this study refunctioning was discussed as a design studio topic in relation to the old girls' teacher training school and its immediate surroundings. The primary objective of this design studio is to increase architecture students' awareness in terms of visual and perceptual levels of project designs in historical patterns. Within the context of this manuscript, the experiences gained during design studio process were transferred and discussed.

USE OF RFID AT LARGE-SCALE EVENTS

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Yuusuke KAWAKITA

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Radio Frequency Identification (RFID devices and related technologies have received a great deal of attention for their ability to perform non-contact object identification. Systems incorporating RFID have been evaluated from a variety of perspectives. The authors constructed a networked RFID system to support event management at NetWorld+Interop 2004 Tokyo, an event that received 150,000 visitors. The system used multiple RFID readers installed at the venue and RFID tags carried by each visitor to provide a platform for running various management and visitor support applications. This paper presents the results of this field trial of RFID readability rates. It further addresses the applicability of RFID systems to visitor management, a problematic aspect of large-scale events.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

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Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

Use of tree-ring chemistry to document historical ground-water contamination events

Science.gov (United States)

Vroblesky, Don A.; Yanosky, Thomas M.

1990-01-01

The annual growth rings of tulip trees (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) appear to preserve a chemical record of ground-water contamination at a landfill in Maryland. Zones of elevated iron and chlorine concentrations in growth rings from trees immediately downgradient from the landfill are closely correlated temporally with activities in the landfill expected to generate iron and chloride contamination in the ground water. Successively later iron peaks in trees increasingly distant from the landfill along the general direction of ground-water flow imply movement of iron-contaminated ground water away from the landfill. The historical velocity of iron movement (2 to 9 m/yr) and chloride movement (at least 40 m/yr) in ground water at the site was estimated from element-concentration trends of trees at successive distances from the landfill. The tree-ring-derived chloride-transport velocity approximates the known ground-water velocity (30 to 80 m/yr). A minimum horizontal hydraulic conductivity (0.01 to .02 cm/s) calculated from chloride velocity agrees well with values derived from aquifer tests (about 0.07 cm/s) and from ground-water modeling results (0.009 to 0.04 cm/s).

Combination of High Rate, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations - Preliminary Results Using a Shake Table and Historic Earthquake Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Michael; Passmore, Paul; Zimakov, Leonid; Raczka, Jared

2014-05-01

One of the fundamental requirements of an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (and other mission critical applications) is to quickly detect and process the information from the strong motion event, i.e. event detection and location, magnitude estimation, and the peak ground motion estimation at the defined targeted site, thus allowing the civil protection authorities to provide pre-programmed emergency response actions: Slow down or stop rapid transit trains and high-speed trains; shutoff of gas pipelines and chemical facilities; stop elevators at the nearest floor; send alarms to hospitals, schools and other civil institutions. An important question associated with the EEW system is: can we measure displacements in real time with sufficient accuracy? Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, storage integrity, and real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies and other mission critical applications, such as volcano monitoring, building, bridge and dam monitoring systems. REF TEK a Division of Trimble has developed the integrated GNSS/Accelerograph system, model 160-09SG, which consists of REF TEK's fourth generation electronics, a 147-01 high-resolution ANSS Class A accelerometer, and Trimble GNSS receiver and antenna capable of real time, on board Precise Point Positioning (PPP) techniques with satellite clock and orbit corrections delivered to the receiver directly via L-band satellite communications. The test we

Enlightened state versus millenarian vision: A comparison between two historical novels

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Z. Roelofse-Campbell

1997-04-01

Full Text Available Two millenarian events, one in Brazil (Canudos Rebellion, 1897 and the other in South Africa (Bulhoek Massacre, 1921 have inspired two works of narrative fiction: Mario Vargas Llosa's The War of the End of the World (1981 and Mike Nicol’s This Day and Age (1992. In both novels the events are presented from the perspectives of both the oppressed landless peasants and the oppressors, who were the ruling élites. In both instances, governments which purported to be models of enlightenment and modernity resorted to violence and repression in order to uphold their authority. Vargas Llosa's novel was written in the Latin American tradition where truth and fiction mingle indistinguishably while in the South African novel fictional elements override historical truth.

Medieval Irish chronicles reveal persistent volcanic forcing of severe winter cold events, 431–1649 CE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ludlow, Francis; Stine, Alexander R; Leahy, Paul; Kiely, Gerard; Murphy, Enda; Mayewski, Paul A; Taylor, David; Killen, James; Hennessy, Mark; Baillie, Michael G L

2013-01-01

Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431–1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland’s climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions. (letter)

Training to handle unexpected events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamlin, K.W.

1987-01-01

The importance of conducting hands-on training to deal with complex situations is well recognized. Since most utilities now own or have ordered their own control room simulators, access to simulator training facilities has improved greatly. Most utilities now have a control room shift rotation that includes a dedicated training shift. The opportunities for practicing operational control over unexpected and off-normal events are just beginning to be recognized. Areas that are being enhanced include teamwork training, diagnostics training, expanded simulator training programs, improvements in simulator instructor training, emergency procedures training, and training on the use of probabilistic risk assessment studies. All these efforts are aimed at the goal of improving the plant staff's ability to cope with unexpected and off-normal events

Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

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Slobodan Kolaković

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

350 Years of Fire-Climate-Human Interactions in a Great Lakes Sandy Outwash Plain

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Richard P. Guyette

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Throughout much of eastern North America, quantitative records of historical fire regimes and interactions with humans are absent. Annual resolution fire scar histories provide data on fire frequency, extent, and severity, but also can be used to understand fire-climate-human interactions. This study used tree-ring dated fire scars from red pines (Pinus resinosa at four sites in the Northern Sands Ecological Landscapes of Wisconsin to quantify the interactions among fire occurrence and seasonality, drought, and humans. New methods for assessing the influence of human ignitions on fire regimes were developed. A temporal and spatial index of wildland fire was significantly correlated (r = 0.48 with drought indices (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI. Fire intervals varied through time with human activities that included early French Jesuit missions, European trade (fur, diseases, war, and land use. Comparisons of historical fire records suggest that annual climate in this region has a broad influence on the occurrence of fire years in the Great Lakes region.

State-of-the-art of historical earthquake research in Fennoscandia and the Baltic Republics

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