A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

Science.gov (United States)

Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

2016-03-01

Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

Science.gov (United States)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noemi Mancosu

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Present water shortage is one of the primary world issues, and according to climate change projections, it will be more critical in the future. Since water availability and accessibility are the most significant constraining factors for crop production, addressing this issue is indispensable for areas affected by water scarcity. Current and future issues related to “water scarcity” are reviewed in this paper so as to highlight the necessity of a more sustainable approach to water resource management. As a consequence of increasing water scarcity and drought, resulting from climate change, considerable water use for irrigation is expected to occur in the context of tough competition between agribusiness and other sectors of the economy. In addition, the estimated increment of the global population growth rate points out the inevitable increase of food demand in the future, with an immediate impact on farming water use. Since a noteworthy relationship exists between the water possessions of a country and the capacity for food production, assessing the irrigation needs is indispensable for water resource planning in order to meet food needs and avoid excessive water consumption.

Global water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

1993-01-01

This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

2010-04-01

SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

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Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

2012-12-01

Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B.; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Grogan, Danielle S.; Frolking, Steve

2017-10-01

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a global partial equilibrium grid-resolving model SIMPLE-G, and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the consequences of reducing unsustainable irrigation for food security, land use change, and terrestrial carbon. A variety of future (2050) scenarios are considered that interact irrigation productivity with two policy interventions— inter-basin water transfers and international commodity market integration. We find that pursuing sustainable irrigation may erode other development and environmental goals due to higher food prices and cropland expansion. This results in over 800 000 more undernourished people and 0.87 GtC additional emissions. Faster total factor productivity growth in irrigated sectors will encourage more aggressive irrigation water use in the basins where irrigation vulnerability is expected to be reduced by inter-basin water transfer. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future irrigation vulnerability, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

Science.gov (United States)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

2015-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Closing of water circuits - a global benchmark on sustainable water management

Science.gov (United States)

Fröhlich, Siegmund

2017-11-01

Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: "The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water." [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

2015-01-01

Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2005-01-01

priorities for future improvements in global fresh water budget monitoring. The priorities are based on the potential of new approaches to provide improved measurement and modeling systems, and on the need to measure and understand the potential for a speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

2015-04-01

Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

Are water markets globally applicable?

Science.gov (United States)

Endo, Takahiro; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-03-01

Water scarcity is a global concern that necessitates a global perspective, but it is also the product of multiple regional issues that require regional solutions. Water markets constitute a regionally applicable non-structural measure to counter water scarcity that has received the attention of academics and policy-makers, but there is no global view on their applicability. We present the global distribution of potential nations and states where water markets could be instituted in a legal sense, by investigating 296 water laws internationally, with special reference to a minimum set of key rules: legalization of water reallocation, the separation of water rights and landownership, and the modification of the cancellation rule for non-use. We also suggest two additional globally distributed prerequisites and policy implications: the predictability of the available water before irrigation periods and public control of groundwater pumping throughout its jurisdiction.

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Closing of water circuits – a global benchmark on sustainable water management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fröhlich Siegmund

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: “The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water.” [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

Energy-Water-Land Nexus: The relative contributions of climate and human systems on global water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Chen, M.; Turner, S. W. D.; Graham, N. T.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Kim, S. H.; Link, R. P.

2017-12-01

There is a growing consensus that energy, water, and land systems are interconnected and should be analyzed as such. New tools are required to represent the interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamically evolving system. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. The model accounts for a variety of human activities, including changing demands for water for agriculture, power generation, industry, and public supply. We find that these activities exert a larger influence on water scarcity than climate in 93% of river basins globally. This work highlights the importance of accounting for human activities in hydrologic modeling applications and how they may change under different pathways of how land use and agricultural systems, energy systems, and economies may evolve in the future.

National water resource management as a global problem: The example of Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Abdelkader, A. A.; Tuninetti, M.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.; Fahmy, H.

2017-12-01

The engineering redistribution of water remains limited in its spatial scope, when compared with the socioeconomic redistribution of water in its virtual form. Virtual water (VW) embedded in products has its own human-induced cycle by moving across the globe. There is a significant body of literature on global VW trade networks (VWTN), with most studies focused on the network structure and the variables controlling its behavior. It was shown that the importing nations will play an important role in the evolution of the network dynamics. The increased connectivity of the global network highlights the risk of systemic disruptions and the vulnerability of the global food, especially when exporting countries change to non-exporting ones. The existing models of VWTN characterize the properties of the network, along with its nodes and links. Acknowledging its contribution to understand the global redistribution of virtual water, hardly can this approach attract potential users to adopt it. The VW trade (VWT) modeling needs to be repositioned to allow resource managers and policy makers at various scales to benefit from it and link global VW dynamics to their local decisions. The aim of this research is to introduce a new modeling approach for the VWT where detailed national scale water management is nested within the coarser global VWTN. The case study of Egypt, the world biggest importer of wheat, is considered here because its population growth and limitations of water and arable land position it as a significant node in the global network. A set of potential scenarios of Egypt's future, driven by population growth, development plans, consumption patterns, technology change, and water availability are developed. The annual national food and water balance in every scenario is calculated to estimate the potential for VW export and import of Egypt. The results indicate that Egypt's demand for food might cause unexpectedly higher demands on other countries' water resources

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

Observability of global rivers with future SWOT observations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Colby; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric

2017-04-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated using a data assimilation system. This mission will provide increased spatial and temporal coverage compared to current altimeters, with an expected accuracy for water level elevations of 10 cm on rivers greater than 100 m wide. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time, which will impact the derived discharge values. There is, then, a need for a better understanding of how the mission will observe global river basins. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts the discharge estimated from assimilation. SWOT observations can be assimilated using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013] with a fixed interval Kalman smoother. Previous work has shown that the ISR assimilation method can be used to reproduce the spatial and temporal dynamics of discharge within many global basins: however, this performance was strongly impacted by the spatial and temporal availability of discharge observations. In this study, we apply the ISR method to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each. Based on these properties, we quantify the "observability" of each basin and relate this to the performance of the assimilation. Applying this metric globally to a large variety of basins we can gain a better understanding of the impact that SWOT observations may have across basin scales. By determining the

Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

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Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

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Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-12-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padowski, Julie C; Gorelick, Steven M

2014-01-01

This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

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Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

2010-06-01

The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides

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Pickering, M. D.; Horsburgh, K. J.; Blundell, J. R.; Hirschi, J. J.-M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Verlaan, M.; Wells, N. C.

2017-06-01

Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at 10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

Water availability, water quality water governance: the future ahead

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Tundisi, J. G.; Matsumura-Tundisi, T.; Ciminelli, V. S.; Barbosa, F. A.

2015-04-01

The major challenge for achieving a sustainable future for water resources and water security is the integration of water availability, water quality and water governance. Water is unevenly distributed on Planet Earth and these disparities are cause of several economic, ecological and social differences in the societies of many countries and regions. As a consequence of human misuse, growth of urbanization and soil degradation, water quality is deteriorating continuously. Key components for the maintenance of water quantity and water quality are the vegetation cover of watersheds, reduction of the demand and new water governance that includes integrated management, predictive evaluation of impacts, and ecosystem services. Future research needs are discussed.

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

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Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

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Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Callisto

Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

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Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

2015-03-01

Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Globalization: prospects of future international cooperation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinu, I.P.

2001-01-01

As the world is moving into a new millennium, its energy needs are increasing. Next to nuclear generation alternative there is no power that creates more concern because of the many global and public issues and because of a large impact over the future. There is much discussion about globalization at this end of millenium, when human kind has already experienced atomic bomb and Chernobyl is haunting our dreams. But many benefits of nuclear in all area of life leads us to idea we have to assess before to choose, apply individual by local needs and policy and - most important - not impede the future generation to choose, its turn. (author)

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

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Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

2013-04-01

Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled

Groundwater science in water-utility operations: global reflections on current status and future needs

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Foster, Stephen; Sage, Rob

2017-08-01

The relevance of groundwater science to water-utility operations is analysed from a broad international perspective, identifying key concerns and specific opportunities for the future. The strategic importance worldwide of water utilities assuming the role of lead stakeholders for integrated groundwater resource management, recognizing their often considerable technical know-how and highly significant data holdings, is emphasized. Concurrently, the utilities themselves will need an ever-closer appreciation of groundwater-system behaviour if they are to manage efficiently their water-supply and wastewater operations.

The Future of Global Social Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Potocky-Tripodi

2005-05-01

Full Text Available This article addresses the social work within the context of internationalism and globalization. Based on an examination of published documents on international social work in the past decade, the authors make an evidence-based projection of what is likely to occur in the future of global social work. Finally, the authors make a social work values-based projection of what should occur.

The Global Politics of Water Grabbing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Franco, J.; Mehta, L.; Veldwisch, G.J.A.

2013-01-01

The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land management

The global politics of water grabbing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Franco, Jennifer; Mehta, Lyla; Veldwisch, Gert Jan

2016-01-01

The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

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Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

Renewable: A key component of our global energy future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartley, D.

1995-12-31

Inclusion of renewable energy sources in national and international energy strategies is a key component of a viable global energy future. The global energy balance is going to shift radically in the near future brought about by significant increases in population in China and India, and increases in the energy intensity of developing countries. To better understand the consequences of such global shifts in energy requirements and to develop appropriate energy strategies to respond to these shifts, we need to look at the factors driving choices among supply options by geopolitical consumers and the impact these factors can have on the future energy mix.

Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

2014-12-01

The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

2014-01-01

Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Advances in Global Water Cycle Science Made Possible by Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Within this decade the internationally sponsored Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams from very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and on to blends of the former datastreams with other less-high caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of NASA's role in global water cycle science and its own Global Water & Energy Cycle (GWEC) program, GPM is the centerpiece mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a space-based measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in global temperature. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination, This paper presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Mission and how its datasets can be used in a set of quantitative tests within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine comprehensively whether substantive rate changes do accompany perturbations in global temperatures and how such rate changes manifest themselves in both water storage and water flux transport processes.

Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

2016-04-01

Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

Saving water through global trade

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chapagain, Ashok; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Savenije, H.H.G.

2005-01-01

Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water

Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lohmann, Rainer; Breivik, Knut; Dachs, Jordi; Muir, Derek

2007-01-01

For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks

A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junguo Liu

Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

2013-01-01

Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Global climate change and California's water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaux, H.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

Global water governance. Conceptual design of global institutional arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkerk, M.P.; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

2008-01-01

This study builds upon the explorative study of Hoekstra (2006), who puts forward an argument for coordination at the global level in ‘water governance’. Water governance is understood here in the broad sense as ‘the way people use and maintain water resources’. One of the factors that give water

Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2012-04-17

Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lohmann, Rainer [Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882-1197 (United States)], E-mail: lohmann@gso.uri.edu; Breivik, Knut [Norwegian Institute for Air Research, PO Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); University of Oslo, Department of Chemistry, PO Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Dachs, Jordi [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08034 (Spain); Muir, Derek [Aquatic Ecosystem Protection Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, ON L7R4A6 (Canada)

2007-11-15

For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks.

Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

2017-12-01

Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shabeh ul Hasson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

Future-proofing global health: Governance of priorities.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Belinda; Cohen, I Glenn; Davies, Sara E; Gostin, Lawrence O; Hill, Peter S; Mankad, Aditi; Phelan, Alexandra L

2018-05-01

The year 2015 was a significant anniversary for global health: 15 years since the adoption of the Millennium Development Goals and the creation of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, followed two years later by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. 2015 was also the 10-year anniversary of the adoption of the International Health Regulations (May 2005) and the formal entering into force of the Framework Convention on the Tobacco Control (February 2005). The anniversary of these frameworks and institutions illustrates the growth and contribution of 'global' health diplomacy. Each initiative has also revealed on-going issues with compliance, sustainable funding and equitable attention in global health governance. In this paper, we present four thematic challenges that will continue to challenge prioritisation within global health governance into the future unless addressed: framing and prioritising within global health governance; identifying stakeholders of the global health community; understanding the relationship between health and behaviour; and the role of governance and regulation in supporting global health.

Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

Science.gov (United States)

George H. Kubik

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

Perspectives : How global food traders manage our water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Warner, J.F.; Keulertz, M.; Sojamo, S.

2015-01-01

To many analysts, global water governance is about getting the institutions right: more accountable water users and more public participation in decisions. But are we barking up the right tree? In this analysis, we argue that when analysing global water governance, one needs to look at the global

Global drivers of future river flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

2016-04-01

Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

2017-12-01

Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

2016-04-01

Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2005-01-01

This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Isotope tracers in global water and climate studies of the past and present

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.W.D.; Birks, S.J.; Gibson, J.J.

2002-01-01

To date the global distribution of isotopes in modern precipitation has been characterized almost exclusively from the IAEA/WMO GNIP database, although patchiness of GNIP station records in both time and space has limited the potential of isotope hydrology and climate applications in some areas. Herein, we discuss the prospect of utilizing GCMs for simulating global isotope distributions as a supplementary tool for modern and paleoclimate isotope studies to bridge this gap. Such models currently generate reliable zonal isotope fields, and it is anticipated that future enhancements in finescale resolution of GCMs, and incorporation of land-surface feedbacks and topography will allow for future development of a global reanalysis data set ground-truthed by GNIP. Compilation of time-slice maps of past isotope distribution in precipitation from archival records of meteoric waters also offers significant potential to ground-truth paleoclimate simulations extending back tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (author)

Advances in Understanding Global Water Cycle with Advent of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Within this decade the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a global measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the global water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is the natural variability of a fixed rate cycle.

Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio J. Castro

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Globally, environmental and social change in water-scarce regions challenge the sustainability of social-ecological systems. WaterSES, a sponsored working group within the Program for Ecosystem Change and Society, explores and compares the social-ecological dynamics related to water scarcity across placed-based international research sites with contrasting local and regional water needs and governance, including research sites in Spain and Sweden in Europe, South Africa, China, and Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Texas in the USA. This paper aims to provide a commentary on insights into conducting future solutions-oriented research on water scarcity based on the understanding of the social-ecological dynamics of water scarce regions.

Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrand, P. H.

2004-01-01

This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. Key elements of the global water cycle are discussed in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers, and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. Approaches to measuring or otherwise evaluating the global water cycle are presented, and the limitations on known accuracy for many components of the water cycle are discussed, as are the characteristic spatial and temporal scales of the different water cycle components. Using these observational requirements for a global water cycle observing system, an approach to measuring the global water cycle from space is developed. The capabilities of various active and passive microwave instruments are discussed, as is the potential of supporting measurements from other sources. Examples of space observational systems, including TRMM/GPM precipitation measurement, cloud radars, soil moisture, sea surface salinity, temperature and humidity profiling, other measurement approaches and assimilation of the microwave and other data into interpretative computer models are discussed to develop the observational possibilities. The selection of orbits is then addressed, for orbit selection and antenna size/beamwidth considerations determine the sampling characteristics for satellite measurement systems. These considerations dictate a particular set of measurement possibilities, which are then matched to the observational sampling requirements based on the science. The results define a network of satellite instrumentation systems, many in low Earth orbit, a few in geostationary orbit, and all tied together through a sampling network that feeds the observations into a data-assimilative computer model.

Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven

2017-04-01

The relevance of inland waters to global biogeochemical cycles is increasingly recognized, and of particular importance is their contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The latter remain largely unreported in African inland waters. Here we report dissolved CO2, CH4 and N2O from 12 rivers in Sub-Saharan Africa acquired during >30 field expeditions and additional seasonally resolved sampling at >30 sites between 2006 and 2014. Fluxes were calculated from reported gas transfer velocity values, and upscaled using available spatial datasets, with an estimated uncertainty of about ±19%. CO2 equivalent emissions ( 0.4±0.1 PgC yr-1) match 2/3 of the overall net carbon sink previously reported for Africa. Including emissions from wetlands of the Congo, the putative total emission ( 0.9±0.1 PgC yr-1) is about half of the global oceanic or land carbon sinks. In-situ respiration supported <14% of riverine CO2 emissions, which must therefore largely be driven by mineralization in wetlands or uplands. Riverine CO2 and CH4 emissions were directly correlated to wetland coverage and aboveground vegetation biomass, implying that future changes in wetland and upland vegetation cover will strongly impact GHG emissions from African inland waters.

Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

2014-12-01

We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

2014-05-01

In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

2012-11-01

The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

Anthropocene Futures and Water Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Berkhout

2015-04-01

Full Text Available A central claim about the Anthropocene is that this new epoch, in which people have become the primary geological force, raises profound questions about the sustainability of human development (Crutzen 2002. Human populations have grown dramatically, especially over the past two centuries; these people have grown on average wealthier, drawing on massively greater natural resources and environmental services, including water (Steffen et al. 2011. A number of ‘planetary boundaries' have been defined (Röckstrom et al. 2009, which point to the most urgent dimensions of the global sustainability problems that flow from the scale and scope of human appropriations and interventions in biophysical Earth Systems. These include by now familiar changes and impacts associated with climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss and land-use change, as well as global freshwater use. Röckstrom et al. (2009 suggest using consumptive water run-off (or blue water use as a proxy for global freshwater use. Assuming an upper limit of ~12 500–15 000 km3 year−1 of accessible blue water resources, they suggest that consumptive uses above a threshold of 4000–6000 km3 year-1 would represent a significant risk to ecosystems, moisture feedbacks and freshwater/ocean mixing. Given that consumptive use is now at about 2600 km3 year−1 the authors conclude that there appears to be some room for manoeuvre, although there continues to be a trend of rapidly growing consumptive water use at the global scale. In addition, a number of other problems associated with access to resources have been pointed to: peak oil; peak phosphorus; and the resilience of ecosystem services (Steffen 2011. Beyond this, there is the growing awareness of "systemic risks" to global economic, financial and political systems linked to the degradation, failure or transformation of key biophysical and ecological systems. Perhaps one of the most striking claims is that an epoch of relative

Anthropocene Futures and Water Security

Science.gov (United States)

Berkhout, F.

2015-04-01

A central claim about the Anthropocene is that this new epoch, in which people have become the primary geological force, raises profound questions about the sustainability of human development (Crutzen 2002). Human populations have grown dramatically, especially over the past two centuries; these people have grown on average wealthier, drawing on massively greater natural resources and environmental services, including water (Steffen et al. 2011). A number of `planetary boundaries' have been defined (Röckstrom et al. 2009), which point to the most urgent dimensions of the global sustainability problems that flow from the scale and scope of human appropriations and interventions in biophysical Earth Systems. These include by now familiar changes and impacts associated with climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss and land-use change, as well as global freshwater use. Röckstrom et al. (2009) suggest using consumptive water run-off (or blue water use) as a proxy for global freshwater use. Assuming an upper limit of ~12 500-15 000 km3 year-1 of accessible blue water resources, they suggest that consumptive uses above a threshold of 4000-6000 km3 year-1 would represent a significant risk to ecosystems, moisture feedbacks and freshwater/ocean mixing. Given that consumptive use is now at about 2600 km3 year-1 the authors conclude that there appears to be some room for manoeuvre, although there continues to be a trend of rapidly growing consumptive water use at the global scale. In addition, a number of other problems associated with access to resources have been pointed to: peak oil; peak phosphorus; and the resilience of ecosystem services (Steffen 2011). Beyond this, there is the growing awareness of "systemic risks" to global economic, financial and political systems linked to the degradation, failure or transformation of key biophysical and ecological systems. Perhaps one of the most striking claims is that an epoch of relative stability in these systems

A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Challenges in global ballast water management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Endresen, Oyvind; Lee Behrens, Hanna; Brynestad, Sigrid; Bjoern Andersen, Aage; Skjong, Rolf

2004-01-01

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

The impacts of wind technology advancement on future global energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Xiaochun; Ma, Chun; Song, Xia; Zhou, Yuyu; Chen, Weiping

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Integrated assessment model perform a series of scenarios of technology advances. • Explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advance in global energy. • Technology advance impacts on energy consumption and global low carbon market. • Technology advance influences on global energy security and stability. - Abstract: To avoid additional global warming and environmental damage, energy systems need to rely on the use of low carbon technologies like wind energy. However, supply uncertainties, production costs, and energy security are the main factors considered by the global economies when reshaping their energy systems. Here, we explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advancement in future global electricity generations, costs, and energy security. We use an integrated assessment model performing a series of technology advancement scenarios. The results show that double of the capital cost reduction causes 40% of generation increase and 10% of cost ​decrease on average in the long-term global wind electricity market. Today’s technology advancement could bring us the benefit of increasing electricity production in the future 40–50 years, and decreasing electricity cost in the future 90–100 years. The technology advancement of wind energy can help to keep global energy security and stability. An aggressive development and deployment of wind energy could in the long-term avoid 1/3 of gas and 1/28 of coal burned, and keep 1/2 biomass and 1/20 nuclear fuel saved from the global electricity system. The key is that wind resources are free and carbon-free. The results of this study are useful in broad coverage ranges from innovative technologies and systems of renewable energy to the economic industrial and domestic use of energy with no or minor impact on the environment.

Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Westholm

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

Infectious Disinfection: "Exploring Global Water Quality"

Science.gov (United States)

Mahaya, Evans; Tippins, Deborah J.; Mueller, Michael P.; Thomson, Norman

2009-01-01

Learning about the water situation in other regions of the world and the devastating effects of floods on drinking water helps students study science while learning about global water quality. This article provides science activities focused on developing cultural awareness and understanding how local water resources are integrally linked to the…

Human and climate impacts on global water resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

2013-01-01

Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meg A Krawchuk

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade. We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research

Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

Science.gov (United States)

Krawchuk, Meg A; Moritz, Max A; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global

Personalized Telehealth in the Future: A Global Research Agenda.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinesen, Birthe; Nonnecke, Brandie; Lindeman, David; Toft, Egon; Kidholm, Kristian; Jethwani, Kamal; Young, Heather M; Spindler, Helle; Oestergaard, Claus Ugilt; Southard, Jeffrey A; Gutierrez, Mario; Anderson, Nick; Albert, Nancy M; Han, Jay J; Nesbitt, Thomas

2016-03-01

As telehealth plays an even greater role in global health care delivery, it will be increasingly important to develop a strong evidence base of successful, innovative telehealth solutions that can lead to scalable and sustainable telehealth programs. This paper has two aims: (1) to describe the challenges of promoting telehealth implementation to advance adoption and (2) to present a global research agenda for personalized telehealth within chronic disease management. Using evidence from the United States and the European Union, this paper provides a global overview of the current state of telehealth services and benefits, presents fundamental principles that must be addressed to advance the status quo, and provides a framework for current and future research initiatives within telehealth for personalized care, treatment, and prevention. A broad, multinational research agenda can provide a uniform framework for identifying and rapidly replicating best practices, while concurrently fostering global collaboration in the development and rigorous testing of new and emerging telehealth technologies. In this paper, the members of the Transatlantic Telehealth Research Network offer a 12-point research agenda for future telehealth applications within chronic disease management.

Technologies for water resources management: an integrated approach to manage global and regional water resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tao, W. C., LLNL

1998-03-23

Recent droughts in California have highlighted and refocused attention on the problem of providing reliable sources of water to sustain the State`s future economic development. Specific elements of concern include not only the stability and availability of future water supplies in the State, but also how current surface and groundwater storage and distribution systems may be more effectively managed and upgraded, how treated wastewater may be more widely recycled, and how legislative and regulatory processes may be used or modified to address conflicts between advocates of urban growth, industrial, agricultural, and environmental concerns. California is not alone with respect to these issues. They are clearly relevant throughout the West, and are becoming more so in other parts of the US. They have become increasingly important in developing and highly populated nations such as China, India, and Mexico. They are critically important in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, especially as they relate to regional stability and security issues. Indeed, in almost all cases, there are underlying themes of `reliability` and `sustainability` that pertain to the assurance of current and future water supplies, as well as a broader set of `stability` and `security` issues that relate to these assurances--or lack thereof--to the political and economic future of various countries and regions. In this latter sense, and with respect to regions such as China, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, water resource issues may take on a very serious strategic nature, one that is most illustrative and central to the emerging notion of `environmental security.` In this report, we have identified a suite of technical tools that, when developed and integrated together, may prove effective in providing regional governments the ability to manage their water resources. Our goal is to formulate a framework for an Integrated Systems Analysis (ISA): As a strategic planning tool for managing

Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

Science.gov (United States)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Perceptions of the Year 2000: Then, Now, and In The Future. Developing the Critical Analysis Skills and Time Reference Perspective of Proactive Action Students in Environmental and Global Education Curricula.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Richard Oakes

An overview of future global environmental concerns and a strategy for teaching action skills to students are presented. Information from "The Global 2000 Report" and quotes from 11 different people provide a variety of perspectives on future problems and solutions concerning world food and hunger, economic growth, population, water,…

Water treatments of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poon, John; Moore Kenneth

2011-01-01

This article discusses and reviews nine water technologies. They are solar desalination, synthetic aquaporin membranes, microbial fuel cell and desalination, forward osmosis, resource recovery and brine managment, 'Smart' water grids, micropollutant treatment, the Cities of the Future program and high retention membrane bioreactors.

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

2001-01-01

The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

Global Water Cycle Diagrams Minimize Human Influence and Over-represent Water Security

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, B. W.; Bishop, K.; Zarnetske, J. P.; Minaudo, C.; Chapin, F. S., III; Plont, S.; Marçais, J.; Ellison, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Kolbe, T.; Ursache, O.; Hampton, T. B.; GU, S.; Chapin, M.; Krause, S.; Henderson, K. D.; Hannah, D. M.; Pinay, G.

2017-12-01

The diagram of the global water cycle is the central icon of hydrology, and for many people, the point of entry to thinking about key scientific concepts such as conservation of mass, teleconnections, and human dependence on ecological systems. Because humans now dominate critical components of the hydrosphere, improving our understanding of the global water cycle has graduated from an academic exercise to an urgent priority. To assess how the water cycle is conceptualized by researchers and the general public, we analyzed 455 water cycle diagrams from textbooks, scientific articles, and online image searches performed in different languages. Only 15% of diagrams integrated human activity into the water cycle and 77% showed no sign of humans whatsoever, although representation of humans varied substantially by region (lowest in China, N. America, and Australia; highest in Western Europe). The abundance and accessibility of freshwater resources were overrepresented, with 98% of diagrams omitting water pollution and climate change, and over 90% of diagrams making no distinction for saline groundwater and lakes. Oceanic aspects of the water cycle (i.e. ocean size, circulation, and precipitation) and related teleconnections were nearly always underrepresented. These patterns held across disciplinary boundaries and through time. We explore the historical and contemporary reasons for some of these biases and present a revised version of the global water cycle based on research from natural and social sciences. We conclude that current depictions of the global water cycle convey a false sense of water security and that reintegrating humans into water cycle diagrams is an important first step towards understanding and sustaining the hydrosocial cycle.

Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

2012-02-07

Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

Fusion power in a future low carbon global electricity system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cabal, H.; Lechón, Y.; Bustreo, C.

2017-01-01

Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation...

Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

2015-12-01

Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-01-01

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Jolly, Ian; Sophocleous, Marios; Zhang, Lu

2007-03-01

Past land use changes have greatly impacted global water resources, with often opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Increases in rain-fed cropland (460%) and pastureland (560%) during the past 300 years from forest and grasslands decreased evapotranspiration and increased recharge (two orders of magnitude) and streamflow (one order of magnitude). However, increased water quantity degraded water quality by mobilization of salts, salinization caused by shallow water tables, and fertilizer leaching into underlying aquifers that discharge to streams. Since the 1950s, irrigated agriculture has expanded globally by 174%, accounting for ˜90% of global freshwater consumption. Irrigation based on surface water reduced streamflow and raised water tables resulting in waterlogging in many areas (China, India, and United States). Marked increases in groundwater-fed irrigation in the last few decades in these areas has lowered water tables (≤1 m/yr) and reduced streamflow. Degradation of water quality in irrigated areas has resulted from processes similar to those in rain-fed agriculture: salt mobilization, salinization in waterlogged areas, and fertilizer leaching. Strategies for remediating water resource problems related to agriculture often have opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Long time lags (decades to centuries) between land use changes and system response (e.g., recharge, streamflow, and water quality), particularly in semiarid regions, mean that the full impact of land use changes has not been realized in many areas and remediation to reverse impacts will also take a long time. Future land use changes should consider potential impacts on water resources, particularly trade-offs between water, salt, and nutrient balances, to develop sustainable water resources to meet human and ecosystem needs.

The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply

OpenAIRE

Lars Lindholt; Solveig Glomsrød

2011-01-01

The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic regions during 2010-2050 along with global economic growth and different assumptions regarding petroleum prices and resource endowments. Supply is calculated based on a global model of oil and gas mar...

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Scientific Achievements of Global ENA Imaging and Future Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, P. C.; Stephens, G. K.; Hsieh, S. Y. W.; Demajistre, R.; Gkioulidou, M.

2017-12-01

Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imaging is the only technique that can capture the instantaneous global state of energetic ion distributions in planetary magnetospheres and from the heliosheath. In particular at Earth, ENA imaging has been used to diagnose the morphology and dynamics of the ring current and plasma sheet down to several minutes time resolution and is therefore a critical tool to validate global ring current physics models. However, this requires a detailed understanding for how ENAs are produced from the ring current and inversion techniques that are thoroughly validated against in-situ measurements. To date, several missions have carried out planetary and heliospheric ENA imaging including Cassini, JUICE, IBEX of the heliosphere, and POLAR, Astrid-1, Double Star, TWINS and IMAGE of the terrestrial magnetosphere. Because of their path-finding successes, a future global-imaging mission concept, MEDICI, has been recommended in the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. Its core mission consists of two satellites in one circular, near-polar orbit beyond the radiation belts at around 8 RE, with ENA, EUV and FUV cameras. This recommendation has driven the definition of smaller mission concepts that address specific science aspects of the MEDICI concept. In this presentation, we review the past scientific achievements of ENA imaging with a focus on the terrestrial magnetosphere from primarily the NASA IMAGE and the TWINS missions. The highlighted achievements include the storm, sub-storm and quiet-time morphology, dynamics and pitch-angle distributions of the ring current, global differential acceleration of protons versus O+ ions, the structure of the global electrical current systems associated with the plasma pressure of protons and O+ ions up to around 200 keV, and the relation between ring current and plasmasphere. We discuss the need for future global observations of the ring current, plasma sheet and magnetosheath ion distributions based and derive their

Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

2017-12-01

Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

The future of global health education: training for equity in global health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V. Adams

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Among academic institutions in the United States, interest in global health has grown substantially: by the number of students seeking global health opportunities at all stages of training, and by the increase in institutional partnerships and newly established centers, institutes, and initiatives to house global health programs at undergraduate, public health and medical schools. Witnessing this remarkable growth should compel health educators to question whether the training and guidance that we provide to students today is appropriate, and whether it will be applicable in the next decade and beyond. Given that “global health” did not exist as an academic discipline in the United States 20 years ago, what can we expect it will look like 20 years from now and how can we prepare for that future? Discussion Most clinicians and trainees today recognize the importance of true partnership and capacity building in both directions for successful international collaborations. The challenge is in the execution of these practices. There are projects around the world where this is occurring and equitable partnerships have been established. Based on our experience and observations of the current landscape of academic global health, we share a perspective on principles of engagement, highlighting instances where partnerships have thrived, and examples of where we, as a global community, have fallen short. Conclusions As the world moves beyond the charity model of global health (and its colonial roots, it is evident that the issue underlying ethical global health practice is partnership and the pursuit of health equity. Thus, achieving equity in global health education and practice ought to be central to our mission as educators and advisors when preparing trainees for careers in this field. Seeking to eliminate health inequities wherever they are ingrained will reveal the injustices around the globe and in our own cities and

Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

Science.gov (United States)

Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

2017-06-01

The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Müller Schmied

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

Hotspot identification of trans-boundary water conflict due to anthropogenic water use and climate change in the future

Science.gov (United States)

Ueki, A.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

A significant fraction of world population is projected to experience increased water stress in response　to the combined effects of population growth and climate change. Some previous studies have suggested that high water stress had significant causality for civil war, and militarized conflict and trans-boundary water conflict in international river basin. On the other hand, some previous empirical analyses have found that institutionalization (e.g., specific provisions in trans-boundary freshwater treaties) in international river basin was associated with a lower risk of water conflicts during water scarcity. The purpose of this study is to identify these water conflict "hotspots", integrating institutional and governance mechanisms of adaptations to impact of water stress. These adaptations is classified to 4 abilities and skills and then used to calculate the adaptive capacity. The adaptive capacity includes the way to manage water conflict effectively, plan to deal with　uncertainty in the future, alter current situation and create institutionalization with common perspective throughout the whole activities. This study identifies water conflict "hotspots" by combining high water stress areas projected by a global water resource model and a lower degree of the adaptive capacity. This study finds that 9 water conflict "hotspots" in Africa, Asia and South America.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Pacyna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

How well will the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission observe global reservoirs?

Science.gov (United States)

Solander, Kurt C.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

2016-03-01

Accurate observations of global reservoir storage are critical to understand the availability of managed water resources. By enabling estimates of surface water area and height for reservoir sizes exceeding 250 m2 at a maximum repeat orbit of up to 21 days, the NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission (anticipated launch date 2020) is expected to greatly improve upon existing reservoir monitoring capabilities. It is thus essential that spatial and temporal measurement uncertainty for water bodies is known a priori to maximize the utility of SWOT observations as the data are acquired. In this study, we evaluate SWOT reservoir observations using a three-pronged approach that assesses temporal aliasing, errors due to specific reservoir spatial properties, and SWOT performance over actual reservoirs using a combination of in situ and simulated reservoir observations from the SWOTsim instrument simulator. Results indicate temporal errors to be less than 5% for the smallest reservoir sizes (100 km2). Surface area and height errors were found to be minimal (area SWOT, this study will be have important implications for future applications of SWOT reservoir measurements in global monitoring systems and models.

Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia; Kumar, Sanjiv

2016-05-01

Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Joshua B.; Melton, Forrest; Middleton, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Richard; McCabe, Matthew F.; Hook, Simon; Baldocchi, Dennis; Townsend, Philip A.;

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, S.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in

Enhancing the water management schemes of H08 global hydrological model to attribute human water use to six major water sources

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water management, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the human water management schemes of the H08 GHM by incorporating the latest data and techniques. The model enables us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program and the water balance was always strictly closed at any place and time during the simulation period. Using this model, we first conducted a historical global hydrological simulation at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree to specify the sources of water for humanity. The results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628 km3yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839 km3yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789 km3yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786, 199, 106, and 1.8 km3yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747 km3yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607 and 182 km3yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Second, we evaluated the water stress using our simulations and contrasted it with earlier global assessments based on empirical water scarcity indicators, namely, the Withdrawal to Availability ratio and the Falkenmark index (annual renewable water resources per capita). We found that inclusion of water infrastructures in our model diminished water stress in some parts of the world, on

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-25

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

Science.gov (United States)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals

Science.gov (United States)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-12-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Science.gov (United States)

Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

2016-01-01

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-01-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

KAUST Repository

Fisher, Joshua B.; Melton, Forrest; Middleton, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Richard; McCabe, Matthew; Hook, Simon; Baldocchi, Dennis; Townsend, Philip A.; Kilic, Ayse; Tu, Kevin; Miralles, Diego G.; Perret, Johan; Lagouarde, Jean-Pierre; Waliser, Duane; Purdy, Adam J.; French, Andrew; Schimel, David; Famiglietti, James S.; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Eric F.

2017-01-01

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

KAUST Repository

Fisher, Joshua B.

2017-03-11

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

Research development, current hotspots, and future directions of water research based on MODIS images: a critical review with a bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yibo; Zhang, Yunlin; Shi, Kun; Yao, Xiaolong

2017-06-01

Water is essential for life as it provides drinking water and food for humans and animals. Additionally, the water environment provides habitats for numerous species and plays an important role in hydrological, nutrient, and carbon cycles. Among the existing natural resources on Earth's surface, water is the most extensive as it covers more than 70% of the Earth. To gather a comprehensive understanding of the focus of past, present, and future directions of remote sensing water research, we provide an alternative perspective on water research using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery by conducting a comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of research development, current hotspots, and future directions using a bibliometric analysis. Our study suggests that there has been a rapid growth in the scientific outputs of water research using MODIS imagery over the past 15 years compared to other popular satellites around the world. The analysis indicated that Remote Sensing of Environment was the most active journal, and "remote sensing," "imaging science photographic technology," "environmental sciences ecology," "meteorology atmospheric sciences," and "geology" are the top 5 most popular subject categories. The Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution with a total of 477 papers, and Hu CM (Chinese) was the most productive author with 76 papers. A keyword analysis indicated that "vegetation index," "evapotranspiration," and "phytoplankton" were the most active research topics throughout the study period. In addition, it is predicted that more attention will be paid to research on climate change and phenology in the future. Based on the keyword analysis and in consideration of current environmental problems, more studies should focus on the following three aspects: (1) develop methods suitable for data assimilation to fully explain climate or phenological phenomena at continental or global scales rather than at

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Global Changes and Drivers of the Water Footprint of Food Consumption: A Historical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Yang

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Water is one of the most important limiting resources for food production. How much water is needed for food depends on the size of the population, average food consumption patterns and food production per unit of water. These factors show large differences around the world. This paper analyzes sub-continental dynamics of the water footprint of consumption (WFcons for the prevailing diets from 1961 to 2009 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. The findings show that, in most regions, the water needed to feed one person decreased even if diets became richer, because of the increase in water use efficiency in food production during the past half-century. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI decomposition approach is used to analyze the contributions of the major drivers of WFcons for food: population, diet and agricultural practices (output per unit of water. We compare the contributions of these drivers through different subcontinents, and find that population growth still was the major driver behind increasing WFcons for food until now and that potential water savings through agricultural practice improvements were offset by population growth and diet change. The changes of the factors mentioned above were the largest in most developing areas with rapid economic development. With the development of globalization, the international food trade has brought more and more water savings in global water use over time. The results indicate that, in the near future and in many regions, diet change is likely to override population growth as the major driver behind WFcons for food.

Global Water Governance in the Context of Global and Multilevel Governance: Its Need, Form, and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joyeeta Gupta

2013-12-01

Full Text Available To complement this Special Feature on global water governance, we focused on a generic challenge at the global level, namely, the degree to which water issues need to be dealt with in a centralized, concentrated, and hierarchical manner. We examined water ecosystem services and their impact on human well-being, the role of policies, indirect and direct drivers in influencing these services, and the administrative level(s at which the provision of services and potential trade-offs can be dealt with. We applied a politics of scale perspective to understand motivations for defining a problem at the global or local level and show that the multilevel approach to water governance is evolving and inevitable. We argue that a centralized overarching governance system for water is unlikely and possibly undesirable; however, there is a need for a high-level think tank and leadership to develop a cosmopolitan perspective to promote sustainable water development.

Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Freshwater and Associated Grey Water Footprints and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater and the associated grey water footprints (GWFs) for the period 2002-2010, at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 arc min, and compare the GWF per river basin to runoff to assess the P-related water pollution level (WPL). The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources is estimated at 1.5 Tg/yr. More than half of this total load was in Asia, followed by Europe (19%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (13%). The domestic sector contributed 54% to the total, agriculture 38%, and industry 8%. In agriculture, cereals production had the largest contribution to the P load (31%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing 15%. The global total GWF related to anthropogenic P loads is estimated to be 147 × 1012 m3/yr, with China contributing 30%, India 8%, USA 7%, and Spain and Brazil 6% each. The basins with WPL > 1 (where GWF exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity) together cover about 38% of the global land area, 37% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to about 90% of the global population.

Global habitat suitability for framework-forming cold-water corals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Davies

Full Text Available Predictive habitat models are increasingly being used by conservationists, researchers and governmental bodies to identify vulnerable ecosystems and species' distributions in areas that have not been sampled. However, in the deep sea, several limitations have restricted the widespread utilisation of this approach. These range from issues with the accuracy of species presences, the lack of reliable absence data and the limited spatial resolution of environmental factors known or thought to control deep-sea species' distributions. To address these problems, global habitat suitability models have been generated for five species of framework-forming scleractinian corals by taking the best available data and using a novel approach to generate high resolution maps of seafloor conditions. High-resolution global bathymetry was used to resample gridded data from sources such as World Ocean Atlas to produce continuous 30-arc second (∼1 km(2 global grids for environmental, chemical and physical data of the world's oceans. The increased area and resolution of the environmental variables resulted in a greater number of coral presence records being incorporated into habitat models and higher accuracy of model predictions. The most important factors in determining cold-water coral habitat suitability were depth, temperature, aragonite saturation state and salinity. Model outputs indicated the majority of suitable coral habitat is likely to occur on the continental shelves and slopes of the Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Oceans. The North Pacific has very little suitable scleractinian coral habitat. Numerous small scale features (i.e., seamounts, which have not been sampled or identified as having a high probability of supporting cold-water coral habitat were identified in all ocean basins. Field validation of newly identified areas is needed to determine the accuracy of model results, assess the utility of modelling efforts to identify vulnerable marine

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.

Science.gov (United States)

Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Creutzig, Felix; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M.; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A.; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Porto, Antonio Lo; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J.; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

2015-08-01

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60 % by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Lo Porto, Antonio; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

2015-08-01

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

Science.gov (United States)

Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

2017-12-01

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance

Future land-use related water demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Hughes, Gordon A

2010-01-01

Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H [Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam (Netherlands); Strzepek, Kenneth M [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA (United States); Hughes, Gordon A, E-mail: philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl [School of Economics, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

2010-10-15

Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

Global opportunities in land and water use while staying within the safe (and just) operating space: quantifications of interactions and tradeoffs

Science.gov (United States)

Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Heck, Vera

2016-04-01

Staying within the safe and just operating space as defined by multiple planetary boundaries will be a major challenge especially in view of anticipated future increases in food demand, the potential need for balancing climate change (e.g. through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal) and its impacts, and the water and land demand associated with these goals and measures. This presentation will show simulation results from a comprehensive model-based study on the global potentials of diverse crop management options considered as opportunities to stay within the planetary boundaries for human freshwater use and land-system change. The quantified on-farm options include rainwater harvesting, soil conservation and more efficient irrigation, all of which are designed to use neither more water nor more land for agriculture than is presently the case. Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements could save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ambitious scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighbouring rainfed systems, could at the same time boost kilocalorie production by 26% globally. Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, such ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies could increase global kcal production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Global climate change would have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but the improvements in water management quantified here could buffer such effects to a significant degree. Thus, a substantial amount of anticipated future needs for food production could be fulfilled without further approaching / transgressing planetary boundaries. In addition, it will be shown how large-scale biomass plantations for the purpose of terrestrial CO2 removal (climate engineering, potentially implemented should

Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

Science.gov (United States)

An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

Global Knowledge Futures: Articulating the Emergence of a New Meta-level Field

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer M. Gidley

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper I articulate a new meta-level field of studies that I call global knowledge futures—a field through which other emerging transdisciplinary fields can be integrated to cohere knowledge at a higher level. I contrast this with the current dominant knowledge paradigm of the global knowledge economy with its fragmentation, commodification and instrumentalism based on neoliberal knowledge capitalism. I take a big-picture, macrohistorical lens to the new thinking and new knowledge patterns that are emerging within the evolution of consciousness discourse. I explore three discourses: postformal studies, integral studies and planetary studies—using a fourth discourse, futures studies, to provide a macro-temporal framing. By extending the meta-fields of postformal, integral and planetary studies into a prospective future dimension, I locate areas of development where these leading-edge discourses can be brought into closer dialogue with each other. In this meeting point of four boundary-spanning discourses I identify the new meta-level field of global knowledge futures, grounded in human thinking capacities, such as creativity, imagination, dialogue and collaboration.

Terrestrial Water Flux Responses to Global Warming in Tropical Rainforest Area

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Kumar, S.

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (TWFn) (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results reveal that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes (TWF) lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

Dye-Sensitized Photocatalytic Water Splitting and Sacrificial Hydrogen Generation: Current Status and Future Prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pankaj Chowdhury

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Today, global warming and green energy are important topics of discussion for every intellectual gathering all over the world. The only sustainable solution to these problems is the use of solar energy and storing it as hydrogen fuel. Photocatalytic and photo-electrochemical water splitting and sacrificial hydrogen generation show a promise for future energy generation from renewable water and sunlight. This article mainly reviews the current research progress on photocatalytic and photo-electrochemical systems focusing on dye-sensitized overall water splitting and sacrificial hydrogen generation. An overview of significant parameters including dyes, sacrificial agents, modified photocatalysts and co-catalysts are provided. Also, the significance of statistical analysis as an effective tool for a systematic investigation of the effects of different factors and their interactions are explained. Finally, different photocatalytic reactor configurations that are currently in use for water splitting application in laboratory and large scale are discussed.

Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Finger

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Water constraints on future food production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biemans, H.

2012-01-01

To meet the food demand of a growing global population, agricultural production will have to more than double in this century. Agricultural land expansion combined with yield increases will therefore be required. This thesis investigates whether enough water resources will be available to

A Future-Oriented, Globally Based Curriculum Model for Industrial Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Michael

1982-01-01

Presents a future-oriented curriculum approach for industrial technology programs. Major global issues provide the basic structure for curriculum development. These issues include energy management, resource management, technological advancement, and international relations. Rationales for industrial technology are discussed and a curriculum…

The Future of Education for All as a Global Regime of Educational Governance

Science.gov (United States)

Tikly, Leon

2017-01-01

The article considers the future of Education for All (EFA) understood as a global regime of educational governance. The article sets out an understanding of global governance, world order, power, and legitimacy within which EFA is embedded. It explains what is meant by EFA as a regime of global governance and as part of a "regime…

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Future trends in heavy water production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galley, M.R.

1983-10-01

World heavy water production has spanned nearly fifty years and, for much of that period, the commodity was often in short supply, but that situation has changed, at least in Canada. There are now adequate reserves of heavy water and sufficient installed production capacity to service Canadian domestic and export demands for the next ten years or beyond. More than 90 percent of the world's inventory of heavy water has been produced by the GS process but this may not be the method that is chosen when the time comes to expand heavy water production again. Other countries, such as India and Argentina, have already chosen ammonia-hydrogen exchange as an alternative technology for part of their domestic production programs. Despite the present surplus of heavy water, research and development of new technologies is very active, particularly in Canada and Japan, because it is recognized that there are still attractive opportunities for future production by processes that are both less expensive and environmentally more acceptable, than either the demonstrated GS process or ammonia-hydrogen alternative. This paper describes the prospects for some of these new processes, contrasts them with the present established methods and assesses the probable impact on the future supply situation

Assessment of the terrestrial water balance using the global water availability and use model WaterGAP - status and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Müller Schmied, Hannes; Döll, Petra

2017-04-01

The estimation of the World's water resources has a long tradition and numerous methods for quantification exists. The resulting numbers vary significantly, leaving room for improvement. Since some decades, global hydrological models (GHMs) are being used for large scale water budget assessments. GHMs are designed to represent the macro-scale hydrological processes and many of those models include human water management, e.g. irrigation or reservoir operation, making them currently the first choice for global scale assessments of the terrestrial water balance within the Anthropocene. The Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a model framework that comprises both the natural and human water dimension and is in development and application since the 1990s. In recent years, efforts were made to assess the sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing input data and, e.g., how this sensitivity is affected by WaterGAP's calibration scheme. This presentation shows the current best estimate of terrestrial water balance components as simulated with WaterGAP by 1) assessing global and continental water balance components for the climate period 1971-2000 and the IPCC reference period 1986-2005 for the most current WaterGAP version using a homogenized climate forcing data, 2) investigating variations of water balance components for a number of state-of-the-art climate forcing data and 3) discussing the benefit of the calibration approach for a better observation-data constrained global water budget. For the most current WaterGAP version 2.2b and a homogenized combination of the two WATCH Forcing Datasets, global scale (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) river discharge into oceans and inland sinks (Q) is assessed to be 40 000 km3 yr-1 for 1971-2000 and 39 200 km3 yr-1 for 1986-2005. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is close to each other with around 70 600 (70 700) km3 yr-1 as well as water consumption with 1000 (1100) km3 yr-1. The

Global perspectives on future nuclear energy utilisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watts, G.L.

1998-01-01

This paper is presented as an overview of the nuclear sector from a global perspective. The aim is to show that nuclear power does have a future but that this will only be fully realised when the industry is able to demonstrate that it is part of the solution to the world's energy and environmental difficulties rather than part of the problem. The paper looks at the projected world energy demand as the population increases and countries develop, showing that nuclear power is required to meet this demand. In presenting nuclear power as a solution, the paper addresses the challenges facing us such as public confidence, environmental opposition, political issues and finance. It addresses the debate over reprocessing and direct disposal of irradiated nuclear fuel and looks at the competition from other fuels. The paper suggests how the industry might approach these issues such that nuclear power is indeed regarded globally as a solution to some of the worlds most pressing problems. (author)

Monitoring Water Quality in the Future, Volume 3: Biomonitoring

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwart D de; ECO

1995-01-01

In general terms the problems with the existing water quality monitoring approach concern effective and efficient monitoring strategies. In 1993 the project "Monitoring water quality in the future" started in order to address these problems which will only increase in the future. In the framework of

Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

2014-01-13

In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

Evaluation of global water quality - the potential of a data- and model-driven analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bärlund, Ilona; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph; Völker, Jeanette; Malsy, Marcus; Kaus, Andrew; Reder, Klara; Büttner, Olaf; Katterfeld, Christiane; Dietrich, Désirée; Borchardt, Dietrich

2016-04-01

The ongoing socio-economic development presents a new challenge for water quality worldwide, especially in developing and emerging countries. It is estimated that due to population growth and the extension of water supply networks, the amount of waste water will rise sharply. This can lead to an increased risk of surface water quality degradation, if the wastewater is not sufficiently treated. This development has impacts on ecosystems and human health, as well as food security. The United Nations Member States have adopted targets for sustainable development. They include, inter alia, sustainable protection of water quality and sustainable use of water resources. To achieve these goals, appropriate monitoring strategies and the development of indicators for water quality are required. Within the pre-study for a 'World Water Quality Assessment' (WWQA) led by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), a methodology for assessing water quality, taking into account the above-mentioned objectives has been developed. The novelty of this methodology is the linked model- and data-driven approach. The focus is on parameters reflecting the key water quality issues, such as increased waste water pollution, salinization or eutrophication. The results from the pre-study show, for example, that already about one seventh of all watercourses in Latin America, Africa and Asia show high organic pollution. This is of central importance for inland fisheries and associated food security. In addition, it could be demonstrated that global water quality databases have large gaps. These must be closed in the future in order to obtain an overall picture of global water quality and to target measures more efficiently. The aim of this presentation is to introduce the methodology developed within the WWQA pre-study and to show selected examples of application in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

Future United States Domestic Water Demand

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

Numerical modeling and remote sensing of global water management systems: Applications for land surface modeling, satellite missions, and sustainable water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Solander, Kurt C.

The ability to accurately quantify water storages and fluxes in water management systems through observations or models is of increasing importance due to the expected impacts from climate change and population growth worldwide. Here, I describe three innovative techniques developed to better understand this problem. First, a model was created to represent reservoir storage and outflow with the objective of integration into a Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate the impacts of reservoir management on the climate system. Given this goal, storage capacity represented the lone model input required that is not already available to an LSM user. Model parameterization was linked to air temperature to allow future simulations to adapt to a changing climate, making it the first such model to mimic the potential response of a reservoir operator to climate change. Second, spatial and temporal error properties of future NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite reservoir operations were quantified. This work invoked the use of the SWOTsim instrument simulator, which was run over a number of synthetic and actual reservoirs so the resulting error properties could be extrapolated to the global scale. The results provide eventual users of SWOT data with a blueprint of expected reservoir error properties so such characteristics can be determined a priori for a reservoir given knowledge about its topology and anticipated repeat orbit pass over its location. Finally, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission was used in conjunction with in-situ water use records to evaluate sustainable water use at the two-digit HUC basin scale over the contiguous United States. Results indicate that the least sustainable water management region is centered in the southwest, where consumptive water use exceeded water availability by over 100% on average for some of these basins. This work represents the first attempt at evaluating sustainable

Global environment outlook GEO5. Environment for the future we want

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-05-15

The main goal of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and knowledge about the global environment; identified potential policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by turning the best available scientific knowledge into information relevant for decision makers. The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three distinct but linked parts. Part 1 - State and trends of the global environment; Part 2 - Policy options from the regions; Part 3 - Opportunities for a global response.

Global environment outlook GEO5. Environment for the future we want

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-05-15

The main goal of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and knowledge about the global environment; identified potential policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by turning the best available scientific knowledge into information relevant for decision makers. The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three distinct but linked parts. Part 1 - State and trends of the global environment; Part 2 - Policy options from the regions; Part 3 - Opportunities for a global response.

Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Brikowski, T. H.

2009-12-01

Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a

A visão brasileira da futura ordem global Brazil's vision of the future global order

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Flemes

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Este artigo visa desdobrar a concepção brasileira da futura ordem global localizada entre os polos extremos de um concerto de grandes potências e de uma ordem mundial multirregional. O autor demonstra como os formuladores de política externa brasileira contribuem para um tipo de ordem global que oferece espaço de manobra para a potência emergente. As opções de política externa do Brasil são limitadas, diante do superior poder material (hard power das grandes potências estabelecidas. A estratégia de soft balancing do Brasil envolve estratégias institucionais, como a formação de coalizões diplomáticas limitadas ou alianças para restringir o poder das grandes potências estabelecidas. O Brasil tem estado entre os mais poderosos condutores de mudança incremental na diplomacia mundial e é beneficiado em grande parte pelas conectadas mudanças de poder global. Em uma ordem global moldada por grandes potências por meio de arranjos e instituições internacionais, esses jogadores que efetivamente operam em ambos como inovadores, construtores de coalizões e porta-vozes, ao mesmo tempo em que preservam grande parcela de soberania e autonomia, têm o potencial de influenciar substancialmente os resultados da futura política global.This article aims to unfold the Brazilian conception of the future global order located between the extreme poles of a concert of great powers and a multiregional world order. The author demonstrates how Brazilian foreign policy makers contribute to the kind of global order, which offers most room to manoeuvre to the rising power. The foreign policy options of Brazil are limited in view of the superior hard power of the established great powers. Brazil's soft balancing strategy involves institutional strategies such as the formation of limited diplomatic coalitions or ententes to constrain the power of the established great powers. Brazil has been amongst the most powerful drivers of incremental change in

Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

2013-01-01

Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

The Future Revisited: Can Global Learning Still Save the World?

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hook, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This article provides a twelve-year review of my "OJDLA" article ("Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration," University of West Georgia) on the future of global learning, and updates related to issues such as societal need, technologies, course design, administration affairs, faculty support, and student service.

Strategies for ensuring global consistency/comparability of water-quality data

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, J.M.

1999-01-01

In the past 20 years the water quality of the United States has improved remarkably-the waters are safer for drinking, swimming, and fishing. However, despite many accomplishments, it is still difficult to answer such basic questions as: 'How clean is the water?' and 'How is it changing over time?' These same questions exist on a global scale as well. In order to focus water-data issues in the United States, a national Intergovernmental Task Force on Monitoring Water Quality (ITFM) was initiated for public and private organizations, whereby key elements involved in data collection, analysis, storage, and management could be made consistent and comparable. The ITFM recommended and its members are implementing a nationwide strategy to improve water-quality monitoring, assessment, and reporting activities. The intent of this paper is to suggest that a voluntary effort be initiated to ensure the comparability and utility of hydrological data on a global basis. Consistent, long-term data sets that are comparable are necessary in order to formulate ideas regarding regional and global trends in water quantity and quality. The author recommends that a voluntary effort similar to the ITFM effort be utilized. The strategy proposed would involve voluntary representation from countries and international organizations (e.g. World Health Organization) involved in drinking-water assessments and/or ambient water-quality monitoring. Voluntary partnerships such as this will improve curability to reduce health risks and achieve a better return on public and private investments in monitoring, environmental protection, and natural resource management, and result in a collaborative process that will save millions of dollars.In this work it is suggested that a voluntary effort be initiated to ensure the comparability and utility of hydrological data on a global basis. The strategy proposed would involve voluntary representation from countries and international organizations involved in

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

Science.gov (United States)

Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

2005-01-01

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Does global progress on sanitation really lag behind water? An analysis of global progress on community- and household-level access to safe water and sanitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, Oliver; Elliott, Mark; Overbo, Alycia; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Safe drinking water and sanitation are important determinants of human health and wellbeing and have recently been declared human rights by the international community. Increased access to both were included in the Millennium Development Goals under a single dedicated target for 2015. This target was reached in 2010 for water but sanitation will fall short; however, there is an important difference in the benchmarks used for assessing global access. For drinking water the benchmark is community-level access whilst for sanitation it is household-level access, so a pit latrine shared between households does not count toward the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target. We estimated global progress for water and sanitation under two scenarios: with equivalent household- and community-level benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that the "sanitation deficit" is apparent only when household-level sanitation access is contrasted with community-level water access. When equivalent benchmarks are used for water and sanitation, the global deficit is as great for water as it is for sanitation, and sanitation progress in the MDG-period (1990-2015) outstrips that in water. As both drinking water and sanitation access yield greater benefits at the household-level than at the community-level, we conclude that any post-2015 goals should consider a household-level benchmark for both.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2018-04-01

Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-06-01

Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

Developing Strategies for Islamic Banks to Face the Future Challenges of Financial Globalization

OpenAIRE

Al Ajlouni, Ahmed

2004-01-01

Developing Strategies for Islamic Banks to Face the Future Challenges of Financial Globalization Ahmed Al-Ajlouni Abstract This study aims at forming strategic response to assess the ability of Islamic banks in benefiting from the opportunities that may be provided by financial globalization and limits its threats, through assessing the capability of Islamic banks to meet the requirements and challenges of financial globalization, then suggests the suitable strategies that may be ...

Bridges to Global Citizenship: Ecologically Sustainable Futures Utilising Children's Literature in Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Bradbery, Debbie

2013-01-01

Developing an understanding of the importance of a sustainable future is vital in helping children to become "global citizens". Global citizens are those willing to take responsibility for their own actions, respect and value diversity and see themselves as contributors to a more peaceful and sustainable world. Children's…

Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

Future changes in the East Asian rain band projected by global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid size

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo [Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Matsueda, Mio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2011-12-15

Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations, the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model, precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July, Korean peninsula in May, and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley, the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. (orig.)

Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

2017-04-01

Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

Advances In Understanding Global Water Cycle With Advent of GPM Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

During the coming decade, the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space based on an international fleet of satellites operated as a constellation. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the Earth's water cycle from a global measurement perspective and on down to regional scales and below. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper first presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its overriding scientific objectives for climate, weather, and hydrology flow from the anticipated improvements that are being planned for the constellation-based measuring system. Next, the paper shows how the GPM observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is simply part of the natural

Grey mullet (Mugilidae) as possible indicators of global warming in South African estuaries and coastal waters.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Nicola C; Whitfield, Alan K; Harrison, Trevor D

2016-12-01

The grey mullet usually occur in large numbers and biomass in the estuaries of all three South African biogeographic regions, thus making it an ideal family to use in terms of possibly acting as an environmental indicator of global warming. In this analysis the relative estuarine abundance of the dominant three groups of mugilids, namely tropical, warm-water and cool-water endemics, were related to sea surface coastal temperatures. The study suggests a strong link between temperature and the distribution and abundance of the three mullet groups within estuaries and indicates the potential of this family to act as an indicator for future climate change within these systems and adjacent coastal waters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water research to support society: past, present and future

Science.gov (United States)

Arheimer, Berit

2014-05-01

. Historical changes in focus areas clearly reflect the shifts in societal needs, going from industrialization to the information society and globalization. Present research needs will be illustrated in the on-going practical work to support water managers and decision makers with hydrological forecasts, climate change impact assessments, improved water status for biodiversity and statistics for dimensioning safe infrastructure. Different approaches to applied research and ways to implement new knowledge in society will be discussed. Future research is suggested to embrace the complexity of the water systems by linking scales, monitoring systems, processes, disciplines and various users. Some ingredients to achieve a coordinated effort in the scientific community will be suggested, based on new technology, multi-data, transparency and the principles of sharing. To handle the problems of the Antropocene, improved knowledge accumulation to advance science and interactions with other disciplines is absolutely necessary. These should be the basic elements of Panta Rhei.

The nature and causes of the global water crisis: Syndromes from a meta-analysis of coupled human-water studies

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, V.; Lambin, E. F.; Gorelick, S. M.; Thompson, B. H.; Rozelle, S.

2012-10-01

Freshwater scarcity has been cited as the major crisis of the 21st century, but it is surprisingly hard to describe the nature of the global water crisis. We conducted a meta-analysis of 22 coupled human-water system case studies, using qualitative comparison analysis (QCA) to identify water resource system outcomes and the factors that drive them. The cases exhibited different outcomes for human wellbeing that could be grouped into a six "syndromes": groundwater depletion, ecological destruction, drought-driven conflicts, unmet subsistence needs, resource capture by elite, and water reallocation to nature. For syndromes that were not successful adaptations, three characteristics gave cause for concern: (1) unsustainability—a decline in the water stock or ecosystem function that could result in a long-term steep decline in future human wellbeing; (2) vulnerability—high variability in water resource availability combined with inadequate coping capacity, leading to temporary drops in human wellbeing; (3) chronic scarcity—persistent inadequate access and hence low conditions of human wellbeing. All syndromes could be explained by a limited set of causal factors that fell into four categories: demand changes, supply changes, governance systems, and infrastructure/technology. By considering basins as members of syndrome classes and tracing common causal pathways of water crises, water resource analysts and planners might develop improved water policies aimed at reducing vulnerability, inequity, and unsustainability of freshwater systems.

Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seekell, D A; D'Odorico, P; Pace, M L

2011-01-01

The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seekell, D A; D' Odorico, P; Pace, M L [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

2011-04-15

The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

A Data Analysis Toolbox for Modeling the Global Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Science.gov (United States)

AghaKouchak, A.; Sadegh, M.; Mallakpour, I.

2017-12-01

Water, Food and energy systems are highly interconnected. More than seventy percent of global water resource is used for food production. Water withdrawal, purification, and transfer systems are energy intensive. Furthermore, energy generation strongly depends on water availability. Therefore, considering the interactions in the nexus of water, food and energy is crucial for sustainable management of available resources. In this presentation, we introduce a user-friendly data analysis toolbox that mines the available global data on food, energy and water, and analyzes their interactions. This toolbox provides estimates of water footprint for a wide range of food types in different countries and also approximates the required energy and water resources. The toolbox also provides estimates of the corresponding emissions and biofuel production of different crops. In summary, this toolbox allows evaluating dependencies of the food, energy, and water systems at the country scale. We present global analysis of the interactions between water, food and energy from different perspectives including efficiency and diversity of resources use.

Hybrid Analysis of Blue Water Consumption and Water Scarcity Implications at the Global, National, and Basin Levels in an Increasingly Globalized World.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ranran; Zimmerman, Julie

2016-05-17

As the fifth global water footprint assessment, this study enhanced previous estimates of national blue water consumption (including fresh surface and groundwater) and main economic activities with (1) improved spatial and sectoral resolution and (2) quantified the impacts of virtual water trade on water use and water stress at both the national and basin level. In 2007, 1194 Gm(3) of blue water was consumed globally for human purposes. The consuming (producing) of primary and manufactured goods and services from the sectors of "Primary Crops and Livestock", "Primary Energy and Minerals", "Processed Food and Beverages", "Non-food Manufactured Products", "Electricity", "Commercial and Public Services", and "Households" accounted for 33% (91%), ∼ 0% (1%), 37% (water consumption, respectively. The considerable differences in sectoral water consumption accounted for by the two perspectives (consumption- vs production-based) highlight the significance of the water consumed indirectly, upstream in the supply chain (i.e., > 70% of total blue water consumption) while offering additional insights into the water implications of critical interconnected economic activities, such as the water-energy nexus. With 145 Gm(3) (12%) of the blue water consumption embedded in the goods and services traded internationally, 89 countries analyzed were net blue water importers at the national level. On the basin level, the impacts of virtual water trade on water stress were statistically significant for basins across the world and within 104 countries; virtual water trade mitigated water stress for the basins within 85 of the 104 countries, including all of those where there are moderate and greater water stress countrywide (except Italy).

The NPT regime, present and future global security: an American view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, Sam.

1987-01-01

Although not perfect, an international non-proliferation regime as set out by the IAEA and Non-Proliferation Treaty is in existence. The history of the involvement of the United States in the development of this regime is mentioned as a background to explaining the current approach of the Reagan Administration to non-proliferation. Trends and challenges which may affect future global security are then identified and discussed. The author is optimistic about the future. (U.K.)

Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2017-01-01

Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

2017-04-01

The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

Tourism Curriculum in a Global Perspective: Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Wattanacharoensil, Walanchalee

2014-01-01

This article summarizes the development of tourism curricula over the past 20 years from the perspective of global tourism. The paper proposes a generic framework for a future tourism curriculum on the basis of a review of literature in the American, British, and other European contexts. The proposed tourism curriculum aims to create well-rounded…

Securing a better future for all: Nuclear techniques for global development and environmental protection. NA factsheet on isotope hydrology: Ensuring water now and for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Providing adequate freshwater of a desired quality to their populations is one of the foremost development challenges faced by Member States. Although water is a basic human need, it is estimated that nearly one billion people in developing countries do not have access to safe drinking water and more than two billion lack basic sanitation facilities due to inadequate water availability. According to the World Health Organization, nearly five million people - mostly children - die each year from preventable, water-borne diseases. Increasing population, irrigated agriculture and industrial growth together have stressed global freshwater resources over the past several decades. In addition, climate change and the need for greater energy production are now significant drivers of stress on water resources. Nearly 40% of world food production is achieved by means of irrigated agriculture, which accounts for about 70% of total freshwater withdrawals. A significant proportion of groundwater used for irrigation comes from fossil or non-renewable sources, making the food supply unsustainable for a growing human population. Nearly one in three people depends upon water from rivers that are fed by glaciers and snow melt. Increased variability and vulnerability of river flows in a warmer climate (due to increased glacial melt and changes in precipitation patterns) will drive the need for changes in water use and management practices. These changes may also include greater dependence on already stressed groundwater resources. Nearly four billion people - half of the world's population - may live under conditions of water stress in the next two decades.

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernacchi, Carl J., E-mail: bernacch@illinois.edu [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Leakey, Andrew D.B. [Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Kimball, Bruce A. [USDA-ARS US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, 21881 N. Cardon Lane, Maricopa, AZ 85238 (United States); Ort, Donald R. [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2011-06-15

Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O{sub 3}]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O{sub 3}] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O{sub 3}] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: > Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. > We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. > High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. > Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernacchi, Carl J.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ort, Donald R.

2011-01-01

Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O 3 ] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O 3 ] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: → Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. → We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. → High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. → Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Chao, B.; Wu, Y.-H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2012-01-01

Recent studies suggest the increasing contribution of groundwater depletion to global sea-level rise. Groundwater depletion has more than doubled during the last decades, primarily due to increase in water demand, while the increase in water impoundments behind dams has been tapering off since

Physics for future Presidents - nuclear power, terrorism, global warming; La physique expliquee a notre futur president - Nucleaire, terrorisme, rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muller, Richard A.

2011-04-26

This book explains the science behind the concerns that our nation faces in the immediate future. It outlines the tools of terrorists, the dangers of nuclear power, and the reality of global warming. As citizens who will elect future presidents of the most powerful and influential countries in the world, we need to know-truly understand if Iran's nascent nuclear capability is a genuine threat to the West, if biochemical weapons are likely to be developed by terrorists, if there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels that should be nurtured and supported by the government, if nuclear power should be encouraged, and if global warming is actually happening. This book is written in everyday, nontechnical language on the science behind the concerns that our nations faces in the immediate future. This book is translated from 'Physics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines', published by W. W. Norton and Company in August 2008. Contents: 1 - Terrorism: Nine-eleven, Terrorist nukes, The next terrorist attack, Biological terrorism; 2 - Energy: Key energy surprises, Solar Power, The end of oil; 3 - Nukes: Radioactivity and death, Radioactive decay, Nuclear weapons, Nuclear madness, Nuclear power, Nuclear waste, Controlled fusion; 4 - Space: Space and satellites, Gravity applications, Humans in space, Spying with invisible light; 5 - Global Warming: A brief history of climate, The greenhouse effect, A very likely cause, Evidence, Non-solutions, The fruit on the ground, New technologies

Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas M. Kiulia

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

Energy and ethics. Ethical aspects of a future global power generation; Energie und Ethik. Ethische Aspekte zukuenftiger globaler Stromerzeugung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gethmann, C.F. [Duisburg-Essen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Philosophie; Europaeische Akademie Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH, Essen (Germany)

2008-07-01

The article deals with ethical questions regarding a future global energy supply by considering the normative aspects of economic efficiency, long-term liabilities, environmental sustainability, social acceptability and distributive equity. Regarding the ethical issues dealt with in the debate on the global energy supply, in particular two postulates arise: Both an improvement in knowledge and an improvement in the categories and procedures of ethical reflection are required. (orig.)

Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kummu, Matti; Varis, Olli; Ward, Philip J; De Moel, Hans

2010-01-01

In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961-90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000-1700 m 3 /capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2% of the world population was under chronic water shortage ( 3 /capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected

Integrated Water Resources Management: A Global Review

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, V.; Cohen, M.; Akudago, J.; Keith, D.; Palaniappan, M.

2011-12-01

The diversity of water resources endowments and the societal arrangements to use, manage, and govern water makes defining a single paradigm or lens through which to define, prioritize and evaluate interventions in the water sector particularly challenging. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) emerged as the dominant intervention paradigm for water sector interventions in the early 1990s. Since then, while many successful implementations of IWRM have been demonstrated at the local, basin, national and trans-national scales, IWRM has also been severely criticized by the global water community as "having a dubious record that has never been comprehensively analyzed", "curiously ambiguous", and "ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst". Does IWRM hold together as a coherent paradigm or is it a convenient buzzword to describe a diverse collection of water sector interventions? We analyzed 184 case study summaries of IWRM interventions on the Global Water Partnership (GWP) website. The case studies were assessed to find the nature, scale, objectives and outcomes of IWRM. The analysis does not suggest any coherence in IWRM as a paradigm - but does indicate distinct regional trends in IWRM. First, IWRM was done at very different scales in different regions. In Africa two-thirds of the IWRM interventions involved creating national or transnational organizations. In contrast, in Asia and South America, almost two-thirds were watershed, basin, or local body initiatives. Second, IWRM interventions involved very different types of activities in different regions. In Africa and Europe, IWRM entailed creation of policy documents, basin plans and institution building. In contrast, in Asia and Latin America the interventions were much more likely to entail new technology, infrastructure or watershed measures. In Australia, economic measures, new laws and enforcement mechanisms were more commonly used than anywhere else.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Backman, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

A global, 30-m resolution land-surface water body dataset for 2000

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Huang, C.; Song, D. X.; Song, X. P.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Inland surface water is essential to terrestrial ecosystems and human civilization. The distribution of surface water in space and its change over time are related to many agricultural, environmental and ecological issues, and are important factors that must be considered in human socioeconomic development. Accurate mapping of surface water is essential for both scientific research and policy-driven applications. Satellite-based remote sensing provides snapshots of Earth's surface and can be used as the main input for water mapping, especially in large areas. Global water areas have been mapped with coarse resolution remotely sensed data (e.g., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). However, most inland rivers and water bodies, as well as their changes, are too small to map at such coarse resolutions. Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) imagery has a 30m spatial resolution and provides decades of records (~40 years). Since 2008, the opening of the Landsat archive, coupled with relatively lower costs associated with computing and data storage, has made comprehensive study of the dynamic changes of surface water over large even global areas more feasible. Although Landsat images have been used for regional and even global water mapping, the method can hardly be automated due to the difficulties on distinguishing inland surface water with variant degrees of impurities and mixing of soil background with only Landsat data. The spectral similarities to other land cover types, e.g., shadow and glacier remnants, also cause misidentification. We have developed a probabilistic based automatic approach for mapping inland surface water bodies. Landsat surface reflectance in multiple bands, derived water indices, and data from other sources are integrated to maximize the ability of identifying water without human interference. The approach has been implemented with open-source libraries to facilitate processing large

Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaramillo, Fernando; Destouni, Georgia

2015-12-04

Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 ± 979 km(3)/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km(3)/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

New science for global sustainability? The institutionalisation of knowledge co-production in Future Earth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Hel, S.C.

2016-01-01

In the context of complex and unprecedented issues of global change, calls for new modes of knowledge production that are better equipped to address urgent challenges of global sustainability are increasingly frequent. This paper presents a case study of the new major research programme “Future

Trends and Possible Future Developments in Global Forest-Product Markets—Implications for the Swedish Forest Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ragnar Jonsson

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.

Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

Watch: Current knowledge of the terrestrial Global Water Cycle"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harding, R.; Best, M.; Hagemann, S.; Kabat, P.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Warnaars, T.; Wiberg, D.; Weedon, G.P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.

2011-01-01

Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and

Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. F. Tjiputra

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO₂ gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO₂ partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

Understanding the socio-institutional context to support adaptation for future water security in forest landscapes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tahia Devisscher

2016-12-01

Full Text Available During the first half of the 21st century, socioeconomic development is expected to contribute faster and to a greater extent to global water stress than climate change. Consequently, we aimed to identify conditions that can facilitate local adaptation planning for future water security, accounting for the socio-institutional context, developmental needs, and interests affecting water use and management. Our study focused on three forest landscapes in Latin America where water stress was identified as a current concern potentially leading to future social conflict if not addressed. In the three sites, we adopted a participatory approach to implement a systematic diagnostic framework for the analysis of socio-institutional barriers and opportunities influencing local adaptation decision making. This novel application enabled science-society engagement in which civil society organizations were coleading the research. The field methods we used involved participatory social network mapping, semistructured interviews, and validation workshops. Our study generated insights into several interventions that could help overcome barriers affecting the adaptation decision-making process, particularly in the diagnosis and early planning phases. Points of intervention included fostering local participation and dialogue to facilitate coproduction of knowledge, and strengthening the role of key central actors in the water governance networks. These key actors are currently bridging multiple interests, information sources, and governance levels, and thus, they could become agents of change that facilitate local adaptation processes. Working jointly with civil society to frame the research proved effective to increase awareness about water issues, which related not only to the technological, economic, and political aspects of water, but also to organizational processes. The involvement of civil society created genuine interest in building further capacity for

Spacebased Observation of Water Balance Over Global Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W.; Xie, X.

2008-12-01

We demonstrated that ocean surface fresh water flux less the water discharge into the ocean from river and ice melt balances the mass loss in the ocean both in magnitude and in the phase of annual variation. The surface water flux was computed from the divergence of the water transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere. The atmospheric water transport is estimated from the precipitable water measured by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the surface wind vector by QuikSCAT, and the NOAA cloud drift wind through a statistical model. The transport has been extensively validated using global radiosonde and data and operational numerical weather prediction results. Its divergence has been shown to agree with the difference between evaporation estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer data and the precipitation measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission over the global tropical and subtropical oceans both in magnitude and geographical distribution for temporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interannual. The water loss rate in the ocean is estimated by two methods, one is from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the other is by subtracting the climatological steric change from the sea level change measured by radar altimeter on Jason. Only climatological river discharge and ice melt from in situ measurements are available and the lack of temporal variation may contribute to discrepancies in the balance. We have successfully used the spacebased surface fluxes to estimate to climatological mean heat transport in the Atlantic ocean and is attempting to estimate the meridional fresh water (or salt) transport from the surface flux. The approximate closure of the water balance gives a powerful indirect validation of the spacebased products.

A global assessment of wildfire risks to human and environmental water security

Science.gov (United States)

Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

2017-04-01

Extreme wildfire events extensively affect hydrosystem stability and generate an important threat to the reliability of the water supply for human and natural communities. While actively studied at the watershed scale, the development of a global vision of wildfire risk to water security has only been undertaken recently, pointing at potential water security concerns in an era of global changes. In order to address this concern, we propose a global-scale analysis of the wildfire risk to surface water supplies based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. Based on the literature, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. Each indicator was assigned a DPSIR category. Then, we collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the wildfire-water risk (WWR). For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, for analysis. Overall, our results show a distinct pattern of medium-to-high risk levels in areas where sizeable wildfire activity, water resources, and water consumption are concomitant, which mainly encompasses temperate and sub-tropical zones. A closer look at hydrobelts reveals differences in the factors driving the risk, with fire activity being the primary factor of risk in the circumboreal forest, and freshwater resource density being prevalent in tropical areas. We also identified major urban areas across the world whose source waters should be protected from extreme fire events, particularly when

Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

1984-04-01

The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

Increasing Awareness of Sustainable Water Management for Future Civil Engineers

Science.gov (United States)

Ilic, Suzana; Karleusa, Barbara; Deluka-Tibljas, Aleksandra

2010-05-01

There are more than 1.2 billion people around the world that do not have access to drinking water. While there are plans under the United Nations Millennium Development Goals to halve this number by 2015, there are a number of regions that will be exposed to water scarcity in the coming future. Providing sufficient water for future development is a great challenge for planners and designers of water supply systems. In order to design sustainable water supplies for the future, it is important to learn how people consume water and how water consumption can be reduced. The education of future civil engineers should take into account not only technical aspects of the water supply but also the accompanying social and economical issues, and appreciated the strengths and weaknesses of traditional solutions. The Faculty of Civil Engineering, at the University of Rijeka, has begun incorporating a series of activities that engage undergraduate students and the local community to develop a mutual understanding of the future needs for sustainable management. We present one of the activities, collaboration with the Lancaster Environment Centre at Lancaster University in the UK through the field course Water and environmental management in Mediterranean context. The course, which is designed for the Lancaster University geography students, features a combination of field trips and visits to provide an understanding of the socio-economic and environmental context of water management in two counties (Istra and Primorsko-Goranska). Students from Lancaster visit the Croatian water authority and a regional water company, where they learn about current management practices and problems in managing water supplies and demand through the year. They make their own observations of current management practices in the field and learn about water consumption from the end users. One day field visit to a village in the area that is still not connected to the main water supply system is

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

Impacts on quality-induced water scarcity: drivers of nitrogen-related water pollution transfer under globalization from 1995 to 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Liyang; Cai, Wenjia; Jiang, Yongkai; Wang, Can

2016-07-01

Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations’ imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations’ exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the ‘cap-and-trade’ and ‘boarder-tax-adjustment’ schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption.

A matter of prior knowledge: Canadian young children’s conceptions about the future in the global community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ottilia CHAREKA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given bychildren in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior knowledge, in this case, prior knowledge of global issues, holds for effective teaching and learning about global issues. Canadian children were optimistic about the future for themselves and their community but less so for the globe. More so than other children, Canadian children were concerned with issues of social justice, issues such as discrimination and racism, and withimproving the environment, which might be attributed to the emphasis that is placed on these issues in their school curriculum. Assessing prior knowledge should be a priority for those considering development and implementation of global education curricula.

A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartout, Pascal

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

2017-09-30

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

Quantifying present and future glacier melt-water contribution to runoff in a central Himalayan river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Prasch

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Water supply of most lowland cultures heavily depends on rain and melt water from the upstream mountains. Especially melt-water release of alpine mountain ranges is usually attributed a pivotal role for the water supply of large downstream regions. Water scarcity is assumed as consequence of glacier shrinkage and possible disappearance due to global climate change (GCC, in particular for large parts of Central and Southeast Asia. In this paper, the application and validation of a coupled modeling approach with regional climate model (RCM outputs and a process-oriented glacier and hydrological model is presented for the central Himalayan Lhasa River basin despite scarce data availability. Current and possible future contributions of ice melt to runoff along the river network are spatially explicitly shown. Its role among the other water balance components is presented. Although glaciers have retreated and will continue to retreat according to the chosen climate scenarios, water availability is and will be primarily determined by monsoon precipitation and snowmelt. Ice melt from glaciers is and will be a minor runoff component in summer monsoon-dominated Himalayan river basins.

The role of scarcity in global virtual water flows

OpenAIRE

Lenzen, Manfred; Bhaduri, Anik; Moran, Daniel; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Bekchanov, Maksud

2012-01-01

Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly draw on the rest of the world to alleviate the pressure on their domestic water resources. Our work builds on these studies, but fills three important gaps in the research on global virtual water trade. First, we note that in previous studies virtual w...

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

Science.gov (United States)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a

Water requirements for livestock production: a global perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlink, A C; Nguyen, M L; Viljoen, G J

2010-12-01

Water is a vital but poorly studied component of livestock production. It is estimated that livestock industries consume 8% of the global water supply, with most of that water being used for intensive, feed-based production. This study takes a broad perspective of livestock production as a component of the human food chain, and considers the efficiency of its water use. Global models are in the early stages of development and do not distinguish between developing and developed countries, or the production systems within them. However, preliminary indications are that, when protein production is adjusted for biological value in the human diet, no plant protein is significantly more efficient at using water than protein produced from eggs, and only soybean is more water efficient than milk and goat and chicken meat. In some regions, especially developing countries, animals are not used solely for food production but also provide draught power, fibre and fertiliser for crops. In addition, animals make use of crop by-products that would otherwise go to waste. The livestock sector is the fastest-growing agricultural sector, which has led to increasing industrialisation and, in some cases, reduced environmental constraints. In emerging economies, increasing involvement in livestock is related to improving rural wealth and increasing consumption of animal protein. Water usage for livestock production should be considered an integral part of agricultural water resource management, taking into account the type of production system (e.g. grain-fed or mixed crop-livestock) and scale (intensive or extensive), the species and breeds of livestock, and the social and cultural aspects of livestock farming in various countries.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Feeding the nuclear pipeline: Enabling a global nuclear future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, A.E.

2004-01-01

Nuclear energy, which exhibits a unique combination of environmental and sustainable attributes, appears strongly positioned to play a much larger and more pivotal role in the mix of future global energy supplies than it has played in the past. Unfortunately, enrolment patterns in nuclear engineering programmes have seriously eroded over the past decade - causing alarmingly low enrolment levels in many countries by the turn of the century and a sobering concern that the nuclear manpower pipeline cannot keep up with the emerging needs of the nuclear industry. On the positive side, enrolment patterns within the United States are now generally on the rise, at least at the undergraduate level. A few of the particularly successful efforts initiated by various sectors of the U.S. nuclear infrastructure to stimulate this rebound are shared in this paper with the hope that some of them might be beneficially employed in other global settings. (author)

The Copernicus Global Land Service: present and future

Science.gov (United States)

Lacaze, Roselyne; Smets, Bruno; Trigo, Isabel; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Jann, Alexander; Camacho, Fernando; Baret, Frédéric; Kidd, Richard; Defourny, Pierre; Tansey, Kevin; Pacholczyk, Philippe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Szintai, Balazs

2013-04-01

From 1st January 2013, the Copernicus Global Land Service is operational, providing continuously to European, African and International users a set of biophysical variables describing the vegetation conditions, the energy budget at the continental surface and the water cycle over the whole globe at one kilometer resolution. These generic products can serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The Copernicus Global Land Service is built on the achievements of the BioPar component of the FP7 geoland2 project. Essential Climate Variables like the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), the surface albedo, the Land Surface Temperature, the soil moisture, the burnt areas, the areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices, are generated every hour, every day or every 10 days on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives have been processed, using the same innovative algorithms, to get consistent time series as long as possible. As an example, more than 30 years of LAI and FAPAR relying on NOAA/AVHRR sensors (from 1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT sensors (from 1999 to the present) are now available. All products are accessible, free of charge and after registration, at the following address: http://www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html. Documentation describing the physical methodologies, the technical properties of products, and the results of validation exercises can also be downloaded. In view of service continuity, research and development are performed on two parallel ways. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies will be adapted to new input data sets (e.g. Proba-V and Sentinel-3 at 1km resolution) that will be used in replacement of current sensor (SPOT/VGT) which reached the end

The future role of nuclear power in addressing global environmental problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stumpf, W.

1995-01-01

Decision makers have to increasingly balance the costs versus benefits of various energy choices against a background of global environmental deterioration. This is particularly so in the choice of long term electricity production strategies where these have to be balanced against the potential of a very severe disruption of the world's climate due to global warming. In this presentation, the threat of global warming is quantified and scenarios are developed of future predicted energy consumption patterns and their impact on international policies to curb global warming, are analyzed. The conclusion is reached that the threat of global warming is so severe that, on the macro level, an international accepted strategy of utilising a proper balance between all forms of electricity production, is a matter of priority and that all national energy choices should be taken against this framework. Such strategic decisions on the macro level must, however, also translate into the micro level of energy production on topics which include: - more efficient plant utilisation; - more effective risk management; correct choice and application of technology; and - better understanding of issues concerning safety, quality and environmental impact. (author)

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, Steve

2006-01-01

The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

A matter of prior knowledge: Canadian young children’s conceptions about the future in the global community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ottilia Chareka

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given by children in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior knowledge, in this case, prior knowledge of global issues, holds for effective teaching and learning about global issues. Canadian children were optimistic about the future for themselves and their community but less so for the globe. More so than other children, Canadian children were concerned with issues of social justice, issues such as discrimination and racism, and with improving the environment, which might be attributed to the emphasis that is placed on these issues in their school curriculum. Assessing prior knowledge should be a priority for those considering development and implementation of global education curricula.

The Global Enery and Water Cycle Experiment Science Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Chahine, M. T.

1997-01-01

The distribution of water in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth is the most influential factor regulating our environment, not only because water is essential for life but also because through phase transitions it is the main energy source that control clouds and radiation and drives the global circulation of the atmosphere.

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2013-01-01

An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, F

2010-08-01

Full Text Available positive chill units. 31 Winter (Apr - Sep) CASE STUDY - Global change impacts on agriculture and water: South Africa?s Garden Route 33 7 Global change and human health 35 CASE STUDY - Environmental health: Bridging the gap between traditional... days). Annual (Jan - Dec) 31 Map 6.2 Intermediate future - present (degree days). Accumulated heat units. 31 Annual (Jan - Dec) Map 6.3 Accumulated positive chill units. Winter (Apr - Sep) 31 Map 6.4 Intermediate future - present. Accumulated...

Social-scientific global change research in the Netherlands. A future study by order of the Human Dimensions Programme (HDP) Committee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correlje, A.F.

2000-09-01

the Netherlands, namely: (1) Institutions; (2) Integrated Assessment; and (3) Sustainable Use of Land and Water. Research contributions in the Netherlands to these themes are expected to contribute to results that can be generalised towards research elsewhere in the world. The themes are attracting the interest of researchers as well as of policy makers. On the basis of consultations with amongst others representatives of the academic research community in the Netherlands and users of knowledge, the report illustrates how the themes are embedded in the traditions and the capacity of the research infrastructure in the Netherlands and in present and future national and international global change research programmes. 49 refs

Water, Society and the future of water resources research (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The subject of water and society is broad, but at heart is the study of water as a resource, essential to human activities, a vital input to food and energy production, the sustaining medium for ecosystems and yet also a destructive hazard. Society demands, withdraws, competes, uses and wastes the resource in dynamic counterpart. The science of water management emerges from this interface, a field at the nexus of engineering and geoscience, with substantial influence from economics and other social sciences. Within this purview are some of the most pressing environmental questions of our time, such as adaptation to climate change, direct and indirect connections between water and energy policy, the continuing dependence of agriculture on depletion of the world's aquifers, the conservation or preservation of ecosystems within increasingly human-influenced river systems, and food security and poverty reduction for the earth's poorest inhabitants. This presentation will present and support the hypothesis that water resources research is a scientific enterprise separate from, yet closely interrelated to, hydrologic science. We will explore the scientific basis of water resources research, review pressing research questions and opportunities, and propose an action plan for the advancement of the science of water management. Finally, the presentation will propose a Chapman Conference on Water and Society: The Future of Water Resources Research in the spring of 2015.

Seasonal and global behavior of water vapor in the Mars atmosphere: Complete global results of the Viking atmospheric water detector experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakosky, B.M.; Farmer, C.B.

1982-01-01

The water vapor content of the Mars atmosphere was measured from the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) for a period of more than 1 Martian year, from June 1976 through April 1979. Results are presented in the form of global maps of column abundance for 24 periods throughout each Mars year. The data reduction incorporates spatial and seasonal variations in surface pressure and supplements earlier published versions of less complete data

The Global Dimension of Water Governance: Why the River Basin Approach Is No Longer Sufficient and Why Cooperative Action at Global Level Is Needed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arjen Y. Hoekstra

2010-12-01

Full Text Available When water problems extend beyond the borders of local communities, the river basin is generally seen as the most appropriate unit for analysis, planning, and institutional arrangements. In this paper it is argued that addressing water problems at the river basin level is not always sufficient. Many of today’s seemingly local water issues carry a (subcontinental or even global dimension, which urges for a governance approach that comprises institutional arrangements at a level beyond that of the river basin. This paper examines a number of arguments for the thesis that good water governance requires a global approach complementary to the river basin approach. Subsequently, it identifies four major issues to be addressed at global scale: Efficiency, equity, sustainability and security of water supply in a globalised world. Finally, the paper raises the question of what kind of institutional arrangements could be developed to cope with the global dimension of water issues. A few possible directions are explored, ranging from an international protocol on full-cost water pricing and a water label for water-intensive products to the implementation of water footprint quotas and the water-neutral concept.

A Global Civilian Power? The Future Role of the European Union in International Politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bedrudin Brljavac

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Questions about the future of the European Union as an international actor continue to puzzle students of international relations and particularly students of EU foreign policy. What kind of predictions can we make about the future role of the EU in international politics? While the question is often framed in terms of military versus normative and/or global civilian power Europe, there are indications that ambitions in both directions may very well coincide. However, despite the EU’s development towards deepened defense integration since the 1990s, such developments are by far outweighed by developments pointing in the direction of the EU consolidating its role as a global civilian power. In this article, we analyze the union’s civilian policies and contrast the findings of our analysis with developments in the field of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP. Based on our analysis of EU enlargement policy, external aid, global environmental policy and the union’s commitment to multilateralism, our conclusion is that the EU’s international role in the next decades will continue to be best described in terms of a global civilian power.

Globalization: prospects for future international cooperation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinu, I.P.

2000-01-01

When I say 'globalization', I think to that golden beginning when President Eisenhower gave his historical speech, 'Atomic Power for Peace,' to the General Assembly of U.N.O. in 1953. He proposed, for the first time, an international cooperation for sustaining the peaceful application of nuclear energy. Years later, the global nuclear dream was shaken by Chernobyl. Humankind had seen the reverse of globalization: any lack in project, execution, or operation of an NPP has global consequences. Still, why globalization? Globalization because global urbanization trends are an important factor for energy planners and this debate is vital for fueling the bigger cities of tomorrow. (author)

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. D. S. Cullis

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

Science.gov (United States)

Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

2018-02-01

Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

Past, Present and Future use of Municipal Water and Freshwater Resources of the Bekkersdal Community, Westonaria, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone L. Liefferink

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Water is a human right which is recognised globally, with an increasing focus being placed on the ethical considerations of water use. The paper focuses on investigating access and perceptions surrounding this basic need in the Bekkersdal community and the Wonderfonteinspruit, in the Gauteng Province, South Africa. It is hypothesised that several challenges exist both internally and externally in the process of ensuring the right to water in Bekkersdal, from both an environmental and service provision perspective. Through the use of a questionnaire conducted with a statistically representative group from the Bekkersdal community, the following issues were investigated: current water use of municipal and river water, challenges regarding water availability and quality, perceptions regarding the state of the Wonderfonteinspruit and future water use wants and needs. The results indicate a strong reliance on municipal water complicated with water service delivery issues, which resulted in 10% of the residents making use of the polluted Wonderfonteinspruit on a regular basis. Furthermore, the need for solutions to water supply and availability solutions should be developed in conjunction with community members. This research represents some of the first steps that need to be taken to do so.

An updated view of global water cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Houser, P. R.; Schlosser, A.; Lehr, J.

2009-04-01

Unprecedented new observation capacities combined with revolutions in modeling, we are poised to make huge advances in water cycle assessment, understanding, and prediction. To realize this goal, we must develop a discipline of prediction and verification through the integration of water and energy cycle observations and models, and to verify model predictions against observed phenomena to ensure that research delivers reliable improvements in prediction skill. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability, through integration of all necessary observations and research tools. A brief history of the lineage of the conventional water balance and a summary accounting of all major parameters of the water balance using highly respected secondary sources will be presented. Principally, recently published peer reviewed papers reporting results of original work involving direct measurements and new data generated by high-tech devices (e.g. satellite / airborne instruments, supercomputers, geophysical tools) will be employed. This work lends credence to the conventional water balance ideas, but also reveals anachronistic scientific concepts/models, questionable underlying data, longstanding oversights and outright errors in the water balance.

Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; DöLl, Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; Gochis, David; van de Giesen, Nick; Houser, Paul; Jaffé, Peter R.; Kollet, Stefan; Lehner, Bernhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Sheffield, Justin; Wade, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul

2011-05-01

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (˜10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a "grand challenge" to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; 4 Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; Doell. Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James;

Global climate changes in the past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenwiese, C.D.

1993-01-01

Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

Past, current and future water footprints, water scarcity and virtual water flows in China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhuo, L.

2016-01-01

The increasing water consumption as a result of population growth and economic development, especially in fast growing developing countries, puts an increasing strain on the sustainable use of the globe’s finite freshwater resources and poses a key challenge for the future. The objective of the

A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-01-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979-2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8�

Determining water reservoir characteristics with global elevation data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bemmelen, C. W T; Mann, M.; de Ridder, M.P.; Rutten, M.M.; van de Giesen, N.C.

2016-01-01

Quantification of human impact on water, sediment, and nutrient fluxes at the global scale demands characterization of reservoirs with an accuracy that is presently unavailable. This letter presents a new method, based on virtual dam placement, to make accurate estimations of area-volume

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; LeVine, David M.; Chao, Y.; Colomb, F. Raul; Font, J.

2007-01-01

The SMOS and AquariusISAC-D satellite missions will begin a new era to map the global sea surface salinity (SSS) field and its variability from space within the next twothree years. They will provide critical data needed to study the interactions between the ocean circulation, global water cycle and climate. Key scientific issues to address are (1) mapping large expanses of the ocean where conventional SSS data do not yet exist, (2) understanding the seasonal and interannual SSS variations and the link to precipitation, evaporation and sea-ice patterns, (3) links between SSS and variations in the oceanic overturning circulation, (4) air-sea coupling processes in the tropics that influence El Nino, and (4) closing the marine freshwater budget. There is a growing body of oceanographic evidence in the form of salinity trends that portend significant changes in the hydrologic cycle. Over the past several decades, highlatitude oceans have become fresher while the subtropical oceans have become saltier. This change is slowly spreading into the subsurface ocean layers and may be affecting the strength of the ocean's therrnohaline overturning circulation. Salinity is directly linked to the ocean dynamics through the density distribution, and provides an important signature of the global water cycle. The distribution and variation of oceanic salinity is therefore attracting increasing scientific attention due to the relationship to the global water cycle and its influence on circulation, mixing, and climate processes. The oceans dominate the water cycle by providing 86% of global surface evaporation (E) and receiving 78% of global precipitation (P). Regional differences in E-P, land runoff, and the melting or freezing of ice affect the salinity of surface water. Direct observations of E-P over the ocean have large uncertainty, with discrepancies between the various state-of-the-art precipitation analyses of a factor of two or more in many regions. Quantifying the climatic

76 FR 55060 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-06

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9459-7] Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change... entitled, Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi- stressor... vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystems across the United States to the potential impacts of...

The Water Sensitive Future of Lahijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoumeh Mirsafa

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The emergence of the modern urban water system in Iran, albeit facilitated access to clean water and accelerated discharge of waste- and stormwater, it left some negative imprints on country’s urban and natural environment. Among which larger stress on natural water cycles and pollution of water resources are of great importance. More importantly, such impacts are occurring when cities are going through a changing climate, and are facing higher risks of water shortages and flooded urban surfaces in warm and wet seasons, respectively. The present research is built upon a case study conducted in Lahijan, a small city in northern Iran. Bridging between traditional urban design principles and water management practices, the study aims to find ways to connect place making with urban water infrastructure design in order to reintegrate water into the design of public spaces to create visually pleasant, environmentally sustainable and yet resilient contemporary urban forms. The analysis of the water-state of the traditional city reveals that stormwater has been an integrated into the design of Lahijan’s public spaces for centuries, and that the blue and green surfaces were the key components in constructing the porous landscape of Lahijan. As an endeavor to build new techniques upon the old traditions, the paper concludes that after a long period of absence of water in urban settings, water must be reintegrated in the design of public spaces. Accordingly, urban spaces of the future water sensitive Lahijan through various storage, conveyance, infiltration, and evaporation capacities shape the distributed on-site stormwater management infrastructure of the city which can adapt to the impacts of a changing environment while addressing the problems of water scarcity, flooding, and pollution.

Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame

Science.gov (United States)

Kehm, Alexander; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Pavlis, Erricos C.; Seitz, Florian

2018-06-01

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-12-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

Greening the global phosphorus cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Withers, Paul J.A.; Elser, James J.; Hilton, Julian; Ohtake, Hisao; Schipper, Willem J.; Dijk, Van Kimo C.

2015-01-01

The sustainability of global phosphorus (P) use is emerging as a major societal goal to secure future food, energy, and water security for a growing population. Phosphate rock (PR) is a critical raw material whose inefficiency of use is leading to widespread eutrophication and uncertainties about

The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindholt, Lars; Glomsroed, Solveig

2011-07-01

The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic regions during 2010-2050 along with global economic growth and different assumptions regarding petroleum prices and resource endowments. Supply is calculated based on a global model of oil and gas markets. The data on undiscovered resources for the Arctic is based on the estimates by USGS. Sensitivity studies are carried out for two alternative price scenarios and for a 50 per cent reduction of arctic undiscovered resources compared with the USGS 2008 resource estimate. Although a major part of the undiscovered arctic petroleum resources is natural gas, our results show that the relative importance of the Arctic as a world gas supplier will decline, while its importance as a global oil producer may be maintained. We also show that less than full access to undiscovered oil resources will have minor effect on total arctic oil production and a marginal effect on arctic gas extraction. The reason is that Arctic Russia is an important petroleum producer with a sufficiently large stock of already discovered resources to support their petroleum production before 2050. (Author)

Uncertainty of wheat water use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cammarano, Davide; Rötter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Wallach, Daniel; Martre, Pierre; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J.; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richie; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh E.; Hunt, Leslie A.; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Müller, Christoph; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Osborne, Tom M.; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost

2016-01-01

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal.

Global hydrobelts: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?

Science.gov (United States)

Meybeck, M.; Kummu, M.; Dürr, H. H.

2012-08-01

Questions related to water such as its availability, water needs or stress, or management, are mapped at various resolutions at the global scale. They are reported at many scales, mostly along political or continental boundaries. As such, they ignore the fundamental heterogeneity of the hydroclimate and the natural boundaries of the river basins. Here, we describe the continental landmasses according to eight global-scale hydrobelts strictly limited by river basins, defined at a 30' (0.5°) resolution. The belts were defined and delineated, based primarily on the annual average temperature (T) and runoff (q), to maximise interbelt differences and minimise intrabelt variability. The belts were further divided into 29 hydroregions based on continental limits. This new global puzzle defines homogeneous and near-contiguous entities with similar hydrological and thermal regimes, glacial and postglacial basin histories, endorheism distribution and sensitivity to climate variations. The Mid-Latitude, Dry and Subtropical belts have northern and southern analogues and a general symmetry can be observed for T and q between them. The Boreal and Equatorial belts are unique. The hydroregions (median size 4.7 Mkm2) contrast strongly, with the average q ranging between 6 and 1393 mm yr-1 and the average T between -9.7 and +26.3 °C. Unlike the hydroclimate, the population density between the North and South belts and between the continents varies greatly, resulting in pronounced differences between the belts with analogues in both hemispheres. The population density ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 p km-2 for the North American Boreal and some Australian hydroregions to 280 p km-2 for the Asian part of the Northern Mid-Latitude belt. The combination of population densities and hydroclimate features results in very specific expressions of water-related characteristics in each of the 29 hydroregions. Our initial tests suggest that hydrobelt and hydroregion divisions are often more

Improved but unsustainable: accounting for sachet water in post-2015 goals for global safe water.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoler, Justin

2012-12-01

The advent and rapid spread of sachet drinking water in West Africa presents a new challenge for providing sustainable access to global safe water. Sachet water has expanded drinking water access and is often of sufficient quality to serve as an improved water source for Millennium Development Goals (MDG) monitoring purposes, yet sachets are an unsustainable water delivery vehicle due to their overwhelming plastic waste burden. Monitoring of primary drinking water sources in West Africa generally ignores sachet water, despite its growing ubiquity. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is unlikely to meet the MDG Target for drinking water provision, and post-2015 monitoring activities may depend upon rapid adaptability to local drinking water trends. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global land-water nexus: Agricultural land and freshwater use embodied in worldwide supply chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B; Han, M Y; Peng, K; Zhou, S L; Shao, L; Wu, X F; Wei, W D; Liu, S Y; Li, Z; Li, J S; Chen, G Q

2018-02-01

As agricultural land and freshwater inextricably interrelate and interact with each other, the conventional water and land policy in "silos" should give way to nexus thinking when formulating the land and water management strategies. This study constructs a systems multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to expound global land-water nexus by simultaneously tracking agricultural land and freshwater use flows along the global supply chains. Furthermore, land productivity and irrigation water requirements of 160 crops in different regions are investigated to reflect the land-water linkage. Results show that developed economies (e.g., USA and Japan) and major large developing economies (e.g., mainland China and India) are the overriding drivers of agricultural land and freshwater use globally. In general, significant net transfers of these two resources are identified from resource-rich and less-developed economies to resource-poor and more-developed economies. For some crops, blue water productivity is inversely related to land productivity, indicating that irrigation water consumption is sometimes at odds with land use. The results could stimulus international cooperation for sustainable land and freshwater management targeting on original suppliers and final consumers along the global supply chains. Moreover, crop-specific land-water linkage could provide insights for trade-off decisions on minimizing the environmental impacts on local land and water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Tamea

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986–2010. The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible. The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010. In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986, a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km, with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

Science.gov (United States)

Tamea, S.; Allamano, P.; Carr, J. A.; Claps, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2013-03-01

Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986-2010). The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible). The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010). In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986), a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km), with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

Future trends in global blindness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serge Resnikoff

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

A novel approach for examining future US domestic water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching policy makers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistic...

An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Giertz

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

In hot water: the future of Australia's coastal and marine ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, Anthony J; Poloczanska, Elvira

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Marine ecosystems are extremely important economically and ecologically to Australia in terms of tourism, coastal defence, resources, and ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and waste disposal. Australia is also a globally important repository of biodiversity. Here we describe the observed and potential future impacts of climate change on Australia's marine diversity. Climate simulations project oceanic warming, an increase in stratification, a strengthening of the Eastern Australian Current, increased ocean acidification, a rise in sea level, and altered storm and rainfall regimes, which taken collectively will fundamentally change marine ecosystems. There has already been widespread bleaching of tropical corals, poleward shifts of temperate fish and plankton populations, and a decline in cold-water giant kelp off Tasmania. Future changes are likely to be even more dramatic and have considerable economic and ecological consequences, especially in 'hot spots' of climate change such as theTasman Sea and the Great Barrier Reef area. Corals are likely to bleach more frequently and decline in abundance in response to both warming and ocean acidification. Planktonic animals with calcium carbonate shells, such as winged pteropod snails and coccolithophorid phytoplankton, are likely to decline as increased ocean acidification impairs their ability to maintain carbonate body structures. The projected high warming off south-east Australia is of particular concern. Marine ecosystems in this region are already stressed by high metal concentrations, sewage pollution, and overfishing, and climate models project that this region will warm more than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere this century because of enhanced southerly penetration of the East Australian Current. Venomous jellyfish and harmful algal blooms, which are major threats to human health, will potentially extend further south and occur more frequently. Temperate species

Finding synergy between local competitiveness and global sustainability to provide a future to nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Yacout, Abdellatif; Wade, Dave

2008-01-01

The world's future energy needs will require a mix of energy conversion technologies matched to the local energy market needs while also responding to both local and global socio-political concerns, e.g. energy security, environmental impact, safety and non-proliferation. There is growing recognition worldwide that nuclear energy should not only be part of the solution but maybe as well play a larger share in future's energy supply. The sustainability of future nuclear energy systems is hereby important and a variety of studies have already shown that sustainability of nuclear energy from a resource perspective is achievable via the nuclear fuel cycle though where economic sustainability is essentially defined by the nuclear power plants. The main challenge in deploying sustainable nuclear energy systems will be to find synergies between this local competitiveness of nuclear power plants and the global resource sustainability defined via the nuclear fuel cycle. Both may go hand-in-hand in the long-term but may need government guidance in starting the transition towards such future sustainable nuclear energy systems. (authors)

Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical mo...

The Global Geostationary Wildfire ABBA: Current Implementation and Future Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Prins, E.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hoffman, J.; Brunner, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

2012-12-01

The Wild Fire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA), developed at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), has a long legacy of operational near real-time wildfire detection and characterization in the Western Hemisphere. The first phase of the global geostationary WF_ABBA was made operational at NOAA NESDIS in 2009 and currently includes diurnal active fire monitoring from GOES-East, GOES-South America, GOES-West, Meteosat-9 and MTSAT-1R/-2. This allows for near global active fire monitoring with coverage of Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific utilizing distinct geostationary sensors and a consistent algorithm. Version 6.5.006 of the WF_ABBA was specifically designed to address the capabilities and limitations of diverse geostationary sensors and requests from the global fire monitoring and user community. This presentation will provide an overview of version 6.5.006 of the global WF_ABBA fire product including the new fire and opaque cloud mask and associated metadata. We will demonstrate the WF_ABBA showing examples from around the globe with a focus on the capabilities and plans for integrating new geostationary platforms with coverage of Eastern Europe and Asia (INSAT-3D, Korean COMS, Russian GOMS Elektro-L MSU-GS). We are also preparing for future fire monitoring in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Africa utilizing the next generation GOES-R Imager and Meteosat Third Generation Flexible Combined Imager (MTG - FCI). The goal is to create a globally consistent long-term fire product utilizing the capabilities of each of these unique operational systems and a common fire detection algorithm. On an international level, development of a global geostationary fire monitoring system is supported by the IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team. This work also generally supports Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) activities and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO).

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-08-01

During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress) due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced. In those countries, it can be seen

Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

Science.gov (United States)

Nahai, D.

2010-12-01

Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

Forward and pressure retarded osmosis: potential solutions for global challenges in energy and water supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Klaysom, Chalida; Cath, Tazhi Y; Depuydt, Tom; Vankelecom, Ivo F J

2013-08-21

Osmotically driven membrane processes (ODMP) have gained renewed interest in recent years and they might become a potential solution for the world's most challenging problems of water and energy scarcity. Though the concept of utilizing osmotic pressure difference between high and low salinity streams across semipermeable membranes has been explored for several decades, lack of optimal membranes and draw solutions hindered competition between forward osmosis (FO) and pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) with existing water purification and power generation technologies, respectively. Driven by growing global water scarcity and by energy cost and negative environmental impacts, novel membranes and draw solutions are being developed for ODMPs, mass and heat transfer in osmotic process are becoming better understood, and new applications of ODMPs are emerging. Therefore, OMDPs might become promising green technologies to provide clean water and clean energy from abundantly available renewable resources. This review focuses primarily on new insights into osmotic membrane transport mechanisms and on novel membranes and draw solutions that are currently being developed. Furthermore, the effects of operating conditions on the overall performance of osmotic membranes will be highlighted and future perspectives will be presented.

Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

2015-05-05

Compared with nutrient levels and habitat degradation, the importance of agricultural pesticides in surface water may have been underestimated due to a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis. Increasing pesticide contamination results in decreasing regional aquatic biodiversity, i.e., macroinvertebrate family richness is reduced by ∼30% at pesticide concentrations equaling the legally accepted regulatory threshold levels (RTLs). This study provides a comprehensive metaanalysis of 838 peer-reviewed studies (>2,500 sites in 73 countries) that evaluates, for the first time to our knowledge on a global scale, the exposure of surface waters to particularly toxic agricultural insecticides. We tested whether measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; i.e., quantified insecticide concentrations) exceed their RTLs and how risks depend on insecticide development over time and stringency of environmental regulation. Our analysis reveals that MICs occur rarely (i.e., an estimated 97.4% of analyses conducted found no MICs) and there is a complete lack of scientific monitoring data for ∼90% of global cropland. Most importantly, of the 11,300 MICs, 52.4% (5,915 cases; 68.5% of the sites) exceeded the RTL for either surface water (RTLSW) or sediments. Thus, the biological integrity of global water resources is at a substantial risk. RTLSW exceedances depend on the catchment size, sampling regime, and sampling date; are significantly higher for newer-generation insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids); and are high even in countries with stringent environmental regulations. These results suggest the need for worldwide improvements to current pesticide regulations and agricultural pesticide application practices and for intensified research efforts on the presence and effects of pesticides under real-world conditions.

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

Science.gov (United States)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurane, Ichiro

2010-12-01

Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

Future Investment in Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Beider, Perry

2002-01-01

... in maintaining and replacing their pipes, treatment plants, and other infrastructure. But there is neither consensus on the size and timing of future investment costs nor agreement on the impact of those costs on households and other water ratepayers...

Global gray water footprint and water pollution levels related to anthropogenic nitrogen loads to fresh water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mekonnen, Mesfin; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

2015-01-01

This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater,

Navigating Troubled Waters. An analysis of how urban water regimes in the global South reproduce inequality

OpenAIRE

Nastar, Maryam

2014-01-01

This research is an attempt to conceptualize the underlying forces behind persistent and ubiquitous problems of inequality in access to water in cities of the global south. Inequality in water access is hypothesized to result from urban water regimes that tend to prioritize the right to water access or to provide preferential terms of access for some groups in society, while marginalizing others. By employing a critical realist approach, different theories in relation to inequality are app...

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

Science.gov (United States)

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

Does science need a global language? English and the future of research

CERN Document Server

Montgomery, Scott L

2013-01-01

In early 2012, the global scientific community erupted with news that the elusive Higgs boson had likely been found, providing potent validation for the Standard Model of how the universe works. Scientists from more than one hundred countries contributed to this discovery-proving, beyond any doubt, that a new era in science had arrived, an era of multinationalism and cooperative reach. Globalization, the Internet, and digital technology all play a role in making this new era possible, but something more fundamental is also at work. In all scientific endeavors lies the ancient drive for sharing ideas and knowledge, and now this can be accomplished in a single tongue - English. But is this a good thing? In "Does Science Need a Global Language?", Scott L. Montgomery seeks to answer this question by investigating the phenomenon of global English in science, how and why it came about, the forms in which it appears, what advantages and disadvantages it brings, and what its future might be. He also examines the cons...

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources—Global Stages of Interaction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujay S. Kaushal

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization. During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs. During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability. During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

2017-10-24

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Water resources conservation and nitrogen pollution reduction under global food trade and agricultural intensification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Liu, Yu; Kummu, Matti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Liu, Junguo; Schulin, Rainer

2018-01-01

Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We

Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW) data set measures atmospheric water vapor using ground-based...

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

2005-01-01

Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

Science.gov (United States)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River

Water Resource Impacts Embedded in the Western US Electrical Energy Trade; Current Patterns and Adaptation to Future Drought

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, E. A.; Herron, S.; Qiu, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Ruddell, B. L.

2013-12-01

Water resources are a key element in the global coupled natural-human (CNH) system, because they are tightly coupled with the world's social, environmental, and economic subsystems, and because water resources are under increasing pressure worldwide. A fundamental adaptive tool used especially by cities to overcome local water resource scarcity is the outsourcing of water resource impacts through substitutionary economic trade. This is generally understood as the indirect component of a water footprint, and as ';virtual water' trade. This work employs generalized CNH methods to reveal the trade in water resource impacts embedded in electrical energy within the Western US power grid, and utilizes a general equilibrium economic trade model combined with drought and demand growth constraints to estimate the future status of this trade. Trade in embedded water resource impacts currently increases total water used for electricity production in the Western US and shifts water use to more water-limited States. Extreme drought and large increases in electrical energy demand increase the need for embedded water resource impact trade, while motivating a shift to more water-efficient generation technologies and more water-abundant generating locations. Cities are the largest users of electrical energy, and in the 21st Century will outsource a larger fraction of their water resource impacts through trade. This trade exposes cities to risks associated with disruption of long-distance transmission and distant hydrological droughts.

The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Eric F.

2014-05-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-12-01

As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

Globalization of water and food through international trade: impacts on food security, resilience and justice

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D'Odorico, P.; Carr, J. A.; Seekell, D. A.; Suweis, S. S.

2015-12-01

The global distribution of water resources in general depends on geographic conditions but can be (virtually) modified by humans through mechanisms of globalization, such as trade, that make food commodities available to populations living far from the production regions. While trade is expected to improve access to food and (virtual) water, its impact on the global food system and its vulnerability to shocks remains poorly understood. It is also unclear who benefits from trade and whether it contributes to inequality and justice in resource redistribution. We reconstruct the global patterns of food trade and show with a simple model how the ongoing intensification of imports and exports has eroded the resilience of the global food system. Drawing on human rights theory, we investigate the relationship between inequality and injustice in access to water and food. We assess the fulfillment of positive and negative water and food rights and evaluate the obligations arising from the need to ensure that these rights are met throughout the world. We find that trade enhances the vulnerability to shocks but overall increase the number of people whose water and food rights are met.

47. Essen conference on water and waste management. Is our water management fit for the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinnekamp, J.

2014-01-01

These congress proceedings cover the following larger topics: Challenges facing the German water economy; value retention and financing of water infrastructure; water quality; Sewage Sludge Ordinance / phosphorus recycling; urban mining; new technologies; wastewater disposal structures of the future; flood management; drinking water (quality issues, clarification methods, maintenance); trace substances; wastewater and energy; and fracking. One lecture has been abstracted individually for this database. [de

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

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Joe LoBuglio

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11% use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18% use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

2012-01-01

Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

Making C4 crops more water efficient under current and future climate: Tradeoffs between carbon gain and water loss

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, V.; Pignon, C.

2017-12-01

C4 plants have a carbon concentrating mechanism that has evolved under historically low CO2 concentrations of around 200 ppm. However, increases in global CO2 concentrations in recent times (current CO2 concentrations are at 400 ppm and it is projected to be 550 ppm by mid-century) have diminished the relative advantage of C4 plants over C3 plants, which lack the expensive carbon concentrating machinery. Here we show by employing model simulations that under pre-historic CO2 concentrations, C4 plants are near optimal in their stomatal behavior and nitrogen partitioning between carbon concentrating machinery and carboxylation machinery, and they are significantly supra-optimal under current and future elevated CO2 concentrations. Model simulations performed at current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm show that, under high light conditions, decreasing stomatal conductance by 20% results in a 15% increase in water use efficiency with negligible loss in photosynthesis. Under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm, a 40% decrease in stomatal conductance produces a 35% increase in water use efficiency. Furthermore, stomatal closure is shown to be more effective in decreasing whole canopy transpiration compared to canopy top leaf transpiration, since shaded leaves are more supra-optimal than sunlit leaves. Model simulations for optimizing nitrogen distribution in C4 leaves show that under high light conditions, C4 plants over invest in carbon concentrating machinery and under invest in carboxylation machinery. A 20% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 10% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm. Similarly, a 40% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 15% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm. Our model optimality simulations show that C4 leaves a supra optimal in their

Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2013-12-01

The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

2017-08-01

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

The water footprint of human-made reservoirs for hydropower, irrigation, water supply, flood prevention, fishing and recreation on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Hogeboom, Rick; Knook, Luuk; Hoekstra, Arjen

2017-04-01

Increasing the availability of freshwater to meet growing and competing demands is on many policy agendas. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prescribe sustainable management of water for human consumption. For centuries humans have resorted to building dams to store water in periods of excess for use in times of shortage. Although dams and their reservoirs have made important contributions to human development, it is increasingly acknowledged that reservoirs can be substantial water consumers as well. We estimated the water footprint of human-made reservoirs on a global scale and attributed it to the various reservoir purposes (hydropower generation, residential and industrial water supply, irrigation water supply, flood protection, fishing and recreation) based on their economic value. We found that economic benefits from derived products and services from 2235 reservoirs globally, amount to 311 billion US dollar annually, with residential and industrial water supply and hydropower generation as major contributors. The water footprint associated with these benefits is the sum of the water footprint of dam construction (footprint of reservoirs globally adds up to ˜104 km3yr-1. Attribution per purpose shows that, with a global average water footprint of 21,5 m3GJ,-1 hydropower on average is a water intensive form of energy. We contextualized the water footprint of reservoirs and their purposes with regard to the water scarcity level of the river basin in which they occur. We found the lion's share (55%) of the water footprint is located in non-water scarce basins and only 1% in year-round scarce basins. The purpose for which the reservoir is primarily used changes with increasing water scarcity, from mainly hydropower generation in non-scarce basins, to the (more essential) purposes residential and industrial water supply, irrigation and flood control in scarcer areas. The quantitative explication of how the burden of water consumption from reservoirs is

Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

Science.gov (United States)

Dumont, E.

2012-06-01

Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

Hydropower's future, the environment, and global electricity systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sternberg, R. [Department of Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Ave, Montclair, NJ 07043-1624 (United States)

2010-02-15

Hydropower is a well established electricity system on the global scene. Global electricity needs by far exceed the amount of electricity that hydrosystems can provide to meet global electricity needs. Much of the world's hydropower remains to be brought into production. Improved technology, better calibrated environmental parameters for large projects have become the norm in the past 15 years. How and why does hydropower retain a prominent role in electricity production? How and why does hydropower find social acceptance in diverse social systems? How does hydropower project planning address issues beyond electricity generation? How does the systems approach to hydropower installations further analysis of comparative energy sources powering electricity systems? Attention to the environmental impact of hydropower facilities forms an integral part of systems analysis. Similarly, the technical, political and economic variables call for balanced analysis to identify the viability status of hydro projects. Economic competition among energy systems requires in context assessments as these shape decision making in planning of hydropower systems. Moreover, technological change has to be given a time frame during which the sector advances in productivity and share in expanding electricity generation. The low production costs per kWh assure hydropower at this juncture, 2009, a very viable future. (author)

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Alessandri

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM

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