WorldWideScience

Sample records for global water futures

  1. Global Water Availability and Requirements for Future Food Production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Hoff, H.; Biemans, H.; Fader, M.; Waha, K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was

  2. Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

    2016-12-01

    With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

  3. Sustainable water future with global implications: everyone's responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuylenstierna, J L; Bjorklund, G; Najlis, P

    1997-01-01

    The current use and management of freshwater is not sustainable in many countries and regions of the world. If current trends are maintained, about two-thirds of the world's population will face moderate to severe water stress by 2025 compared to one-third at present. This water stress will hamper economic and social development unless action is taken to deal with the emerging problems. The Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, prepared by the UN and the Stockholm Environment Institute, calls for immediate action to prevent further deterioration of freshwater resources. Although most problems related to water quantity and quality require national and regional solutions, only a global commitment can achieve the necessary agreement on principles, as well as financial means to attain sustainability. Due to the central and integrated role played by water in human activities, any measures taken need to incorporate a wide range of social, ecological and economic factors and needs. The Assessment thus addresses the many issues related to freshwater use, such as integrated land and water management at the watershed level, global food security, water supply and sanitation, ecosystem requirements, pollution, strengthening of major groups, and national water resource assessment capabilities and monitoring networks. Governments are urged to work towards a consensus regarding global principles and guidelines for integrated water management, and towards their implementation in local and regional water management situations. The alternative development options available to countries facing water stress, or the risk thereof, needs to be considered in all aspects of development planning.

  4. Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

    2007-01-01

    The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

  5. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  6. Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falkenmark, Malin

    2013-11-13

    As water is an essential component of the planetary life support system, water deficiency constitutes an insecurity that has to be overcome in the process of socio-economic development. The paper analyses the origin and appearance of blue as well as green water scarcity on different scales and with particular focus on risks to food production and water supply for municipalities and industry. It analyses water scarcity originating from both climatic phenomena and water partitioning disturbances on different scales: crop field, country level and the global circulation system. The implications by 2050 of water scarcity in terms of potential country-level water deficits for food self-reliance are analysed, and the compensating dependence on trade in virtual water for almost half the world population is noted. Planetary-scale conditions for sustainability of the global water circulation system are discussed in terms of a recently proposed Planetary Freshwater Boundary, and the consumptive water use reserve left to be shared between water requirements for global food production, fuelwood production and carbon sequestration is discussed. Finally, the importance of a paradigm shift in the further conceptual development of water security is stressed, so that adequate attention is paid to water's fundamental role in both natural and socio-economic systems.

  7. Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales - Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA's Community Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, P.; Kahil, T.; Satoh, Y.; Greve, P.; Byers, E.; Langan, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Half of the planet's population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA's integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At

  8. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  9. Global Monitoring of Water Supply and Sanitation: History, Methods and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartram, Jamie; Brocklehurst, Clarissa; Fisher, Michael B.; Luyendijk, Rolf; Hossain, Rifat; Wardlaw, Tessa; Gordon, Bruce

    2014-01-01

    International monitoring of drinking water and sanitation shapes awareness of countries’ needs and informs policy, implementation and research efforts to extend and improve services. The Millennium Development Goals established global targets for drinking water and sanitation access; progress towards these targets, facilitated by international monitoring, has contributed to reducing the global disease burden and increasing quality of life. The experiences of the MDG period generated important lessons about the strengths and limitations of current approaches to defining and monitoring access to drinking water and sanitation. The methods by which the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) of WHO and UNICEF tracks access and progress are based on analysis of data from household surveys and linear regression modelling of these results over time. These methods provide nationally-representative and internationally-comparable insights into the drinking water and sanitation facilities used by populations worldwide, but also have substantial limitations: current methods do not address water quality, equity of access, or extra-household services. Improved statistical methods are needed to better model temporal trends. This article describes and critically reviews JMP methods in detail for the first time. It also explores the impact of, and future directions for, international monitoring of drinking water and sanitation. PMID:25116635

  10. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  11. Groundwater science in water-utility operations: global reflections on current status and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Stephen; Sage, Rob

    2017-08-01

    The relevance of groundwater science to water-utility operations is analysed from a broad international perspective, identifying key concerns and specific opportunities for the future. The strategic importance worldwide of water utilities assuming the role of lead stakeholders for integrated groundwater resource management, recognizing their often considerable technical know-how and highly significant data holdings, is emphasized. Concurrently, the utilities themselves will need an ever-closer appreciation of groundwater-system behaviour if they are to manage efficiently their water-supply and wastewater operations.

  12. Water futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mattias Borg

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the potential construction of a water reservoir in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca. Proposed by a peasant group, it would have served important productive purposes but have its intake within the perimeter of a national park. Thus, different notions about water and landscape emerge...... in the encounters between place-based practices and state-sponsored conservation efforts. Empirically tracing the efforts to construct the reservoir, the analytical focus of the article is on how different ways of knowing water within a particular landscape conjure and collide in the process. It is argued...... that the movement of water extends itself beyond the physical properties of the reservoir and irrigation channels as these are produced in encounters between different notions of the role of water in the landscape....

  13. A global scientific literature of research on water quality indices: trends, biases and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Tereza Ribeiro Alves

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available AIM: Water quality has been the subject of many recent studies, moreover, the physical, chemical and biological parameters of water are used to investigate water quality and can be combined into a single index, the Water Quality Index (WQI, for use by water resource managers and the general public. The aim of this study was to use scientometrics to evaluate how water quality has been addressed in the international scientific literature. METHOD: For the quantitative analysis of the publications on WQI, we used the search database SCOPUS (http://www.scopus.com. The search was performed using the words "QUALIT* WATER* INDEX*" in papers published in all databases (through 2011. RESULTS: We found 554 articles that dealt with the use of WQI the number of publications has increased significantly over the last 20 years. India had the most studies, with 177 articles, followed by China, Brazil and the United States. These four countries together published 57% of studies on WQI. We generated 15 linear models to explain the number of publication by study sit (country. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best model to explain the number of publications by country was the model that combined Sanitation and Public Supply. CONCLUSION: Finally, this paper presents the state of scientific literature on WQI and demonstrates the growing interest of the scientific community in this issue, which is certainly due to the importance of the quantity and quality of water for human supply, economics, health and the conservation of water resources.

  14. Global water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

    1993-01-01

    This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

  15. Greening the global water system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, H.; Falkenmark, M.; Gerten, D.; Gordon, L.; Karlberg, L.; Rockström, J.

    2010-04-01

    SummaryRecent developments of global models and data sets enable a new, spatially explicit and process-based assessment of green and blue water in food production and trade. An initial intercomparison of a range of different (hydrological, vegetation, crop, water resources and economic) models, confirms that green water use in global crop production is about 4-5 times greater than consumptive blue water use. Hence, the full green-to-blue spectrum of agricultural water management options needs to be used when tackling the increasing water gap in food production. The different models calculate considerable potentials for complementing the conventional approach of adding irrigation, with measures to increase water productivity, such as rainwater harvesting, supplementary irrigation, vapour shift and soil and nutrient management. Several models highlight Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, as a key region for improving water productivity in agriculture, by implementing these measures. Virtual water trade, mostly based on green water, helps to close the water gap in a number of countries. It is likely to become even more important in the future, when inequities in water availability are projected to grow, due to climate, population and other drivers of change. Further model developments and a rigorous green-blue water model intercomparison are proposed, to improve simulations at global and regional scale and to enable tradeoff analyses for the different adaptation options.

  16. The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

    KAUST Repository

    Fisher, Joshua B.; Melton, Forrest; Middleton, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Richard; McCabe, Matthew; Hook, Simon; Baldocchi, Dennis; Townsend, Philip A.; Kilic, Ayse; Tu, Kevin; Miralles, Diego G.; Perret, Johan; Lagouarde, Jean-Pierre; Waliser, Duane; Purdy, Adam J.; French, Andrew; Schimel, David; Famiglietti, James S.; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Eric F.

    2017-01-01

    The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

    KAUST Repository

    Fisher, Joshua B.

    2017-03-11

    The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  18. The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Joshua B.; Melton, Forrest; Middleton, Elizabeth; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha; Allen, Richard; McCabe, Matthew F.; Hook, Simon; Baldocchi, Dennis; Townsend, Philip A.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.

  19. Securing a better future for all: Nuclear techniques for global development and environmental protection. NA factsheet on isotope hydrology: Ensuring water now and for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Providing adequate freshwater of a desired quality to their populations is one of the foremost development challenges faced by Member States. Although water is a basic human need, it is estimated that nearly one billion people in developing countries do not have access to safe drinking water and more than two billion lack basic sanitation facilities due to inadequate water availability. According to the World Health Organization, nearly five million people - mostly children - die each year from preventable, water-borne diseases. Increasing population, irrigated agriculture and industrial growth together have stressed global freshwater resources over the past several decades. In addition, climate change and the need for greater energy production are now significant drivers of stress on water resources. Nearly 40% of world food production is achieved by means of irrigated agriculture, which accounts for about 70% of total freshwater withdrawals. A significant proportion of groundwater used for irrigation comes from fossil or non-renewable sources, making the food supply unsustainable for a growing human population. Nearly one in three people depends upon water from rivers that are fed by glaciers and snow melt. Increased variability and vulnerability of river flows in a warmer climate (due to increased glacial melt and changes in precipitation patterns) will drive the need for changes in water use and management practices. These changes may also include greater dependence on already stressed groundwater resources. Nearly four billion people - half of the world's population - may live under conditions of water stress in the next two decades.

  20. A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

    2016-03-01

    Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

  1. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  2. The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

  3. The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

  4. Water and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-03-01

    This is material of the 18th world water day in 2010 which reports current situation of water resources such as water world, in water in Korea and water dispute, water and disaster like climate change, flood, drought, historical report about drought and flood, water resources facilities in Korea, disaster management system, development and management of eco-friendly water resources, eco-friendly water resources management and river maintenance, renovating four rivers and supply and procure of safe water.

  5. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  6. Future trends in global blindness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Resnikoff

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms "global AND blindness" and "global AND vision AND impairment", resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002-2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity.

  7. Saving water through global trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chapagain, Ashok; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2005-01-01

    Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water

  8. Renewables. Global futures report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinot, Eric

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to show the range of credible possibilities for the future of renewable energy. It does not present just one vision of the future, but rather a full and objective range of visions, based on the collective and contemporary thinking of many. This report combines a unique array of interviews with 170 experts from around the world, along with over 50 recently published scenarios. These interviews and scenarios are blended into a 'mosaic' of thinking about the future. Persons interviewed included industry and finance experts, CEOs and business managers, researchers and academics, policy-makers and parliamentarians, and public advocates and visionaries, among many others. Views of existing energy companies are also included

  9. Are water markets globally applicable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, Takahiro; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2018-03-01

    Water scarcity is a global concern that necessitates a global perspective, but it is also the product of multiple regional issues that require regional solutions. Water markets constitute a regionally applicable non-structural measure to counter water scarcity that has received the attention of academics and policy-makers, but there is no global view on their applicability. We present the global distribution of potential nations and states where water markets could be instituted in a legal sense, by investigating 296 water laws internationally, with special reference to a minimum set of key rules: legalization of water reallocation, the separation of water rights and landownership, and the modification of the cancellation rule for non-use. We also suggest two additional globally distributed prerequisites and policy implications: the predictability of the available water before irrigation periods and public control of groundwater pumping throughout its jurisdiction.

  10. The Future of Global Social Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Potocky-Tripodi

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the social work within the context of internationalism and globalization. Based on an examination of published documents on international social work in the past decade, the authors make an evidence-based projection of what is likely to occur in the future of global social work. Finally, the authors make a social work values-based projection of what should occur.

  11. Globalization: prospects of future international cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinu, I.P.

    2001-01-01

    As the world is moving into a new millennium, its energy needs are increasing. Next to nuclear generation alternative there is no power that creates more concern because of the many global and public issues and because of a large impact over the future. There is much discussion about globalization at this end of millenium, when human kind has already experienced atomic bomb and Chernobyl is haunting our dreams. But many benefits of nuclear in all area of life leads us to idea we have to assess before to choose, apply individual by local needs and policy and - most important - not impede the future generation to choose, its turn. (author)

  12. Water treatments of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poon, John; Moore Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses and reviews nine water technologies. They are solar desalination, synthetic aquaporin membranes, microbial fuel cell and desalination, forward osmosis, resource recovery and brine managment, 'Smart' water grids, micropollutant treatment, the Cities of the Future program and high retention membrane bioreactors.

  13. Water availability, water quality water governance: the future ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tundisi, J. G.; Matsumura-Tundisi, T.; Ciminelli, V. S.; Barbosa, F. A.

    2015-04-01

    The major challenge for achieving a sustainable future for water resources and water security is the integration of water availability, water quality and water governance. Water is unevenly distributed on Planet Earth and these disparities are cause of several economic, ecological and social differences in the societies of many countries and regions. As a consequence of human misuse, growth of urbanization and soil degradation, water quality is deteriorating continuously. Key components for the maintenance of water quantity and water quality are the vegetation cover of watersheds, reduction of the demand and new water governance that includes integrated management, predictive evaluation of impacts, and ecosystem services. Future research needs are discussed.

  14. Global Energy Assessment. Toward a Sustainable Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, T B; Nakicenovic, N; Patwardhan, A; Gomez-Echeverri, L [eds.

    2012-11-01

    The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy challenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is an invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

  15. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  16. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  17. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  18. Anthropocene Futures and Water Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Berkhout

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A central claim about the Anthropocene is that this new epoch, in which people have become the primary geological force, raises profound questions about the sustainability of human development (Crutzen 2002. Human populations have grown dramatically, especially over the past two centuries; these people have grown on average wealthier, drawing on massively greater natural resources and environmental services, including water (Steffen et al. 2011. A number of ‘planetary boundaries' have been defined (Röckstrom et al. 2009, which point to the most urgent dimensions of the global sustainability problems that flow from the scale and scope of human appropriations and interventions in biophysical Earth Systems. These include by now familiar changes and impacts associated with climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss and land-use change, as well as global freshwater use. Röckstrom et al. (2009 suggest using consumptive water run-off (or blue water use as a proxy for global freshwater use. Assuming an upper limit of ~12 500–15 000 km3 year−1 of accessible blue water resources, they suggest that consumptive uses above a threshold of 4000–6000 km3 year-1 would represent a significant risk to ecosystems, moisture feedbacks and freshwater/ocean mixing. Given that consumptive use is now at about 2600 km3 year−1 the authors conclude that there appears to be some room for manoeuvre, although there continues to be a trend of rapidly growing consumptive water use at the global scale. In addition, a number of other problems associated with access to resources have been pointed to: peak oil; peak phosphorus; and the resilience of ecosystem services (Steffen 2011. Beyond this, there is the growing awareness of "systemic risks" to global economic, financial and political systems linked to the degradation, failure or transformation of key biophysical and ecological systems. Perhaps one of the most striking claims is that an epoch of relative

  19. Anthropocene Futures and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkhout, F.

    2015-04-01

    A central claim about the Anthropocene is that this new epoch, in which people have become the primary geological force, raises profound questions about the sustainability of human development (Crutzen 2002). Human populations have grown dramatically, especially over the past two centuries; these people have grown on average wealthier, drawing on massively greater natural resources and environmental services, including water (Steffen et al. 2011). A number of `planetary boundaries' have been defined (Röckstrom et al. 2009), which point to the most urgent dimensions of the global sustainability problems that flow from the scale and scope of human appropriations and interventions in biophysical Earth Systems. These include by now familiar changes and impacts associated with climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss and land-use change, as well as global freshwater use. Röckstrom et al. (2009) suggest using consumptive water run-off (or blue water use) as a proxy for global freshwater use. Assuming an upper limit of ~12 500-15 000 km3 year-1 of accessible blue water resources, they suggest that consumptive uses above a threshold of 4000-6000 km3 year-1 would represent a significant risk to ecosystems, moisture feedbacks and freshwater/ocean mixing. Given that consumptive use is now at about 2600 km3 year-1 the authors conclude that there appears to be some room for manoeuvre, although there continues to be a trend of rapidly growing consumptive water use at the global scale. In addition, a number of other problems associated with access to resources have been pointed to: peak oil; peak phosphorus; and the resilience of ecosystem services (Steffen 2011). Beyond this, there is the growing awareness of "systemic risks" to global economic, financial and political systems linked to the degradation, failure or transformation of key biophysical and ecological systems. Perhaps one of the most striking claims is that an epoch of relative stability in these systems

  20. Global perspectives on future nuclear energy utilisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watts, G.L.

    1998-01-01

    This paper is presented as an overview of the nuclear sector from a global perspective. The aim is to show that nuclear power does have a future but that this will only be fully realised when the industry is able to demonstrate that it is part of the solution to the world's energy and environmental difficulties rather than part of the problem. The paper looks at the projected world energy demand as the population increases and countries develop, showing that nuclear power is required to meet this demand. In presenting nuclear power as a solution, the paper addresses the challenges facing us such as public confidence, environmental opposition, political issues and finance. It addresses the debate over reprocessing and direct disposal of irradiated nuclear fuel and looks at the competition from other fuels. The paper suggests how the industry might approach these issues such that nuclear power is indeed regarded globally as a solution to some of the worlds most pressing problems. (author)

  1. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  2. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  3. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

    2018-01-01

    Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

  4. Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

  5. Globalization: prospects for future international cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinu, I.P.

    2000-01-01

    When I say 'globalization', I think to that golden beginning when President Eisenhower gave his historical speech, 'Atomic Power for Peace,' to the General Assembly of U.N.O. in 1953. He proposed, for the first time, an international cooperation for sustaining the peaceful application of nuclear energy. Years later, the global nuclear dream was shaken by Chernobyl. Humankind had seen the reverse of globalization: any lack in project, execution, or operation of an NPP has global consequences. Still, why globalization? Globalization because global urbanization trends are an important factor for energy planners and this debate is vital for fueling the bigger cities of tomorrow. (author)

  6. The Global Politics of Water Grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, J.; Mehta, L.; Veldwisch, G.J.A.

    2013-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land management

  7. The global politics of water grabbing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franco, Jennifer; Mehta, Lyla; Veldwisch, Gert Jan

    2016-01-01

    The contestation and appropriation of water is not new, but it has been highlighted by recent global debates on land grabbing. Water grabbing takes place in a field that is locally and globally plural-legal. Formal law has been fostering both land and water grabs but formal water and land

  8. Global water governance. Conceptual design of global institutional arrangements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkerk, M.P.; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2008-01-01

    This study builds upon the explorative study of Hoekstra (2006), who puts forward an argument for coordination at the global level in ‘water governance’. Water governance is understood here in the broad sense as ‘the way people use and maintain water resources’. One of the factors that give water

  9. Global Water Issues and Insights

    OpenAIRE

    Grafton, Quentin R.; Wyrwoll, Paul; White , Chris; Allendes, David

    2014-01-01

    This book brings together some of the world’s leading water researchers with an especially written collection of chapters on: water economics; transboundary water; water and development; water and energy; and water concepts.

  10. Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

    2015-12-01

    A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

  11. Software testing and global industry future paradigms

    CERN Document Server

    Casey, Valentine; Richardson, Ita

    2009-01-01

    Today software development has truly become a globally sourced commodity. This trend has been facilitated by the availability of highly skilled software professionals in low cost locations in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Far East. Organisations

  12. Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Kubik

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

  13. Observability of global rivers with future SWOT observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Colby; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is designed to provide global observations of water surface elevation and slope from which river discharge can be estimated using a data assimilation system. This mission will provide increased spatial and temporal coverage compared to current altimeters, with an expected accuracy for water level elevations of 10 cm on rivers greater than 100 m wide. Within the 21-day repeat cycle, a river reach will be observed 2-4 times on average. Due to the relationship between the basin orientation and the orbit, these observations are not evenly distributed in time, which will impact the derived discharge values. There is, then, a need for a better understanding of how the mission will observe global river basins. In this study, we investigate how SWOT will observe global river basins and how the temporal and spatial sampling impacts the discharge estimated from assimilation. SWOT observations can be assimilated using the Inverse Streamflow Routing (ISR) model of Pan and Wood [2013] with a fixed interval Kalman smoother. Previous work has shown that the ISR assimilation method can be used to reproduce the spatial and temporal dynamics of discharge within many global basins: however, this performance was strongly impacted by the spatial and temporal availability of discharge observations. In this study, we apply the ISR method to 32 global basins with different geometries and crossing patterns for the future orbit, assimilating theoretical SWOT-retrieved "gauges". Results show that the model performance varies significantly across basins and is driven by the orientation, flow distance, and travel time in each. Based on these properties, we quantify the "observability" of each basin and relate this to the performance of the assimilation. Applying this metric globally to a large variety of basins we can gain a better understanding of the impact that SWOT observations may have across basin scales. By determining the

  14. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  15. Infectious Disinfection: "Exploring Global Water Quality"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahaya, Evans; Tippins, Deborah J.; Mueller, Michael P.; Thomson, Norman

    2009-01-01

    Learning about the water situation in other regions of the world and the devastating effects of floods on drinking water helps students study science while learning about global water quality. This article provides science activities focused on developing cultural awareness and understanding how local water resources are integrally linked to the…

  16. Sea Global Containerized Trade. Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo Boşneagu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The global economy, global trade and maritime transport show a trend of development in the next period of time, remaining still some serious risks with the potential to reduce the positive trend, including: modest economic recovery of developed economies, difficulties in emerging growth and development of increasing geopolitical tensions in many parts of the world. Stimulating measures are presently applied in order to achieve the world economic growth, the international trade, the investment and profit growth in consumer’s demand, especially in Western Asia and Africa, as well as increased exports of mineral resources.

  17. Earth Matters: Studies for Our Global Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserman, Pamela; Doyle, Andrea

    Through 12 readings and 32 activities this curriculum material introduces high school students to issues of the global environment and society, while both challenging them to critically evaluate the issues and motivating them to develop solutions. The materials are cited as being applicable to social studies, science, math, language arts, and…

  18. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    priorities for future improvements in global fresh water budget monitoring. The priorities are based on the potential of new approaches to provide improved measurement and modeling systems, and on the need to measure and understand the potential for a speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

  19. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  20. On the Local Constitution of Global Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Irwin, Alan

    2015-01-01

    This essay focuses on the relationship between public engagement with science and larger discussions of globalized and decentred democracy. In particular, it asks whether public engagement on very specific issues and in the form of carefully-planned exercises should be seen as a distraction (or......-wicked problems. There is a tendency for engagement initiatives to operate at the regional or national levels. But what happens when the issues are presented as crossing borders and boundaries, and when the traditional centres of power seem sidelined by the expressed requirement for ‘global’ governance? Going...... governance represent both a challenge when it comes to issues such as climate change and global food security but also an important focus for STS scholarship. Finally, and in the spirit of more grounded conclusions, I suggest six ‘red blooded’ principles for public engagement which can at least get us...

  1. Global environmental technologies in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, M.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the activities of New Energy and industrial Technology Development Organization's (NEDO) 'Research and Development of Industrial Technology' projects which are related to global environmental technologies. Then, it describes four new material programs and two biotechnology ones, and presents a list of a few environmentally-friendly technologies. These national projects are carried out by private companies which are consigned by NEDO in conformity with MITI's fundamental Research and Development policy. (TEC)

  2. Water as the future clash for civilizations: a fresh conceptual approach for a Global Trinity? Water Scarcity and Future Conflict- consideration of water scarcity as a primary cause of conflict in the future requiring an adjustment to the Western approach to threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-25

    conflicts of recent years have arguably become an ideological obsession for some, whilst perhaps fuelled as more than this as demonstrated by the ready...dairy, requiring more water. Producing 1kg of rice requires approximately 3500L of water, 1kg of beef requires circa 15000L, and a cup of coffee 140L

  3. Renewable: A key component of our global energy future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.

    1995-12-31

    Inclusion of renewable energy sources in national and international energy strategies is a key component of a viable global energy future. The global energy balance is going to shift radically in the near future brought about by significant increases in population in China and India, and increases in the energy intensity of developing countries. To better understand the consequences of such global shifts in energy requirements and to develop appropriate energy strategies to respond to these shifts, we need to look at the factors driving choices among supply options by geopolitical consumers and the impact these factors can have on the future energy mix.

  4. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  5. Future United States Domestic Water Demand

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

  6. Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noemi Mancosu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Present water shortage is one of the primary world issues, and according to climate change projections, it will be more critical in the future. Since water availability and accessibility are the most significant constraining factors for crop production, addressing this issue is indispensable for areas affected by water scarcity. Current and future issues related to “water scarcity” are reviewed in this paper so as to highlight the necessity of a more sustainable approach to water resource management. As a consequence of increasing water scarcity and drought, resulting from climate change, considerable water use for irrigation is expected to occur in the context of tough competition between agribusiness and other sectors of the economy. In addition, the estimated increment of the global population growth rate points out the inevitable increase of food demand in the future, with an immediate impact on farming water use. Since a noteworthy relationship exists between the water possessions of a country and the capacity for food production, assessing the irrigation needs is indispensable for water resource planning in order to meet food needs and avoid excessive water consumption.

  7. Fusion power in a future low carbon global electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cabal, H.; Lechón, Y.; Bustreo, C.

    2017-01-01

    Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation...

  8. The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply

    OpenAIRE

    Lars Lindholt; Solveig Glomsrød

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic regions during 2010-2050 along with global economic growth and different assumptions regarding petroleum prices and resource endowments. Supply is calculated based on a global model of oil and gas mar...

  9. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  10. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2018-04-01

    Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  11. Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

    2015-06-01

    Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

  12. Food irradiation; Global aspects and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuyama, Akira (Tokyo Univ. of Agriculture (Japan). Nodai Research Institute)

    1990-07-01

    This paper reviews researches, commentaries, and conference and public records of food irradiation, published mainly during the period 1987-1989, focusing on the current conditions of food irradiation that may pose not only scientific or technologic problems but also political issues or consumerism. Approximately 50 kinds of food, although not enough to fill economic benefit, are now permitted for food irradiation in the world. Consumerism is pointed out as the major factor that precludes the feasibility of food irradiation in the world. In the United States, irradiation is feasible only for spices. Food irradiation has already been feasible in France, Hollands, Belgium, and the Soviet Union; has under consideration in the Great Britain, and has been rejected in the West Germany. Although the feasibility of food irradiation is projected to increase gradually in the future, commercial success or failure depends on the final selection of consumers. In this respect, the role of education and public information are stressed. Meat radicidation and recent progress in the method for detecting irradiated food are referred to. (N.K.) 128 refs.

  13. Future vaccines and a global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, S L

    1997-12-13

    Advances in medical biotechnology mean that vaccines to prevent more than 75 infectious diseases are being or have been developed. Vaccination is unfortunately not reliant purely on biotechnology but also on politics and resources. Countries with the greatest demand for vaccines have the least ability to pay for or produce them. Health-care Infrastructure and diagnostic facilities also hamper immunisation projects in developing countries. Charitable organisations are relied on heavily to support such projects but the challenge to ensure all infants are immunised against the most common infections of childhood is still enormous. Difficulties that present themselves now should not prevent us looking into future possibilities such as immunisation during pregnancy and targeting of children for immunisation against sexually transmitted diseases. Other avenues for research are in administration of vaccines. A move to mucosal immunisation rather than use of the syringe and needle would be positive both economically and from the point of view of risk of needle contamination. Plant science may also provide a new vehicle for vaccines by engineering plants such as the banana tree to be naturally bioencapsulated vaccines. Prospects for control and eradication of infectious disease in the next century are certainly good.

  14. Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

  15. Protecting global soil resources for future generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanarella, Luca

    2017-04-01

    The latest Status of World's Soil Resources report has highlighted that soils are increasingly under pressure by numerous human induced degradation processes in most parts of the world. The limits of our planetary boundaries concerning vital soil resources have been reached and without reversing this negative trend there will be a serious lack of necessary soil resources for future generations. It has been therefore of the highest importance to include soils within some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) recently approved by the United Nations. Sustainable development can not be achieved without protecting the limited, non-renewable, soil resources of our planet. There is the need to limit on-going soil degradation processes and to implement extensive soil restoration activities in order to strive towards a land degradation neutral (LDN) world, as called upon by SDG 15. Sustainable soil management needs to be placed at the core of any LDN strategy and therefore it is of highest importance that the recently approved Voluntary Guidelines for Sustainable Soil Management (VGSSM) of FAO get fully implemented at National and local scale.Sustainable soil management is not only relevant for the protection of fertile soils for food production, but also to mitigate and adopt to climate change at to preserve the large soil biodiversity pool. Therefore the VGSSM are not only relevant to FAO, but also the the climate change convention (UNFCCC) and the biodiversity convention (CBD). An integrated assessment of the current land degradation processes and the available land restoration practices is needed in order to fully evaluate the potential for effectively achieving LDN by 2030. The on-going Land Degradation and Restoration Assessment (LDRA) of the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) will provide the necessary scientific basis for the full implementation of the necessary measures for achieving the planned SGS's relevant to land

  16. Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2017-01-01

    Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

  17. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  18. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  19. Water constraints on future food production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biemans, H.

    2012-01-01

    To meet the food demand of a growing global population, agricultural production will have to more than double in this century. Agricultural land expansion combined with yield increases will therefore be required. This thesis investigates whether enough water resources will be available to

  20. Challenges in global ballast water management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endresen, Oyvind; Lee Behrens, Hanna; Brynestad, Sigrid; Bjoern Andersen, Aage; Skjong, Rolf

    2004-01-01

    Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied

  1. Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, P. H.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. Key elements of the global water cycle are discussed in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers, and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. Approaches to measuring or otherwise evaluating the global water cycle are presented, and the limitations on known accuracy for many components of the water cycle are discussed, as are the characteristic spatial and temporal scales of the different water cycle components. Using these observational requirements for a global water cycle observing system, an approach to measuring the global water cycle from space is developed. The capabilities of various active and passive microwave instruments are discussed, as is the potential of supporting measurements from other sources. Examples of space observational systems, including TRMM/GPM precipitation measurement, cloud radars, soil moisture, sea surface salinity, temperature and humidity profiling, other measurement approaches and assimilation of the microwave and other data into interpretative computer models are discussed to develop the observational possibilities. The selection of orbits is then addressed, for orbit selection and antenna size/beamwidth considerations determine the sampling characteristics for satellite measurement systems. These considerations dictate a particular set of measurement possibilities, which are then matched to the observational sampling requirements based on the science. The results define a network of satellite instrumentation systems, many in low Earth orbit, a few in geostationary orbit, and all tied together through a sampling network that feeds the observations into a data-assimilative computer model.

  2. Assessment of global grey water footprint of major food crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong; Liu, Wenfeng; Antonelli, Marta

    2016-04-01

    Agricultural production is one of the major sources of water pollution in the world. This is closely related to the excess application of fertilizers. Leaching of N and P to water bodies has caused serious degradation of water quality in many places. With the persistent increase in the demand for agricultural products, agricultural intensification evident during the past decades will continue in the future. This will lead to further increase in fertilizer application and consequently water pollution. Grey water footprint is a measure of the intensity of water pollution caused by water use for human activities. It is defined as the volume of water that is required to assimilate a load of pollutants to a freshwater body, based on natural background concentrations and water quality standards. This study conducts a global assessment of grey water footprint for major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice. A crop model, Python-based EPIC (PEPIT), is applied to quantify the leaching of N and P from the fertilizer application in the three crops on a global scale with 0.5 degree spatial resolution. The hotspots of leaching are identified. The results suggest that, based on the definition and method of grey water footprint proposed by the World Water Footprint Network, the grey water footprint in many parts of the world has exceeded their total water resources availability. This indicates the seriousness of water pollution caused by agricultural production. However, the situation may also call for the development of a realistic measurement of grey water footprint which is more pertinent to water resources management. This paper proposes some alternatives in measuring grey water footprint and also discusses incorporation of grey water footprint assessment into water policy formulation and river basins plan development.

  3. Today's virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlowsky, B; Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Hoekstra, A Y

    2014-01-01

    The populations of most nations consume products of both domestic and foreign origin, importing together with the products the water which is expended abroad for their production (termed ‘virtual water’). Therefore, any investigation of the sustainability of present-day water consumption under future climate change needs to consider the effects of potentially reduced water availability both on domestic water resources and on the trades of virtual water. Here we use combinations of Global Climate and Global Impact Models from the ISI–MIP ensemble to derive patterns of future water availability under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations scenarios. We assess the effects of reduced water availability in these scenarios on national water consumptions and virtual water trades through a simple accounting scheme based on the water footprint concept. We thereby identify countries where the water footprint within the country area is reduced due to a reduced within-area water availability, most prominently in the Mediterranean and some African countries. National water consumption in countries such as Russia, which are non-water scarce by themselves, can be affected through reduced imports from water scarce countries. We find overall stronger effects of the higher GHG concentrations scenario, although the model range of climate projections for single GHG concentrations scenarios is in itself larger than the differences induced by the GHG concentrations scenarios. Our results highlight that, for both investigated GHG concentration scenarios, the current water consumption and virtual water trades cannot be sustained into the future due to the projected patterns of reduced water availability. (letter)

  4. The impacts of wind technology advancement on future global energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaochun; Ma, Chun; Song, Xia; Zhou, Yuyu; Chen, Weiping

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Integrated assessment model perform a series of scenarios of technology advances. • Explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advance in global energy. • Technology advance impacts on energy consumption and global low carbon market. • Technology advance influences on global energy security and stability. - Abstract: To avoid additional global warming and environmental damage, energy systems need to rely on the use of low carbon technologies like wind energy. However, supply uncertainties, production costs, and energy security are the main factors considered by the global economies when reshaping their energy systems. Here, we explore the potential roles of wind energy technology advancement in future global electricity generations, costs, and energy security. We use an integrated assessment model performing a series of technology advancement scenarios. The results show that double of the capital cost reduction causes 40% of generation increase and 10% of cost ​decrease on average in the long-term global wind electricity market. Today’s technology advancement could bring us the benefit of increasing electricity production in the future 40–50 years, and decreasing electricity cost in the future 90–100 years. The technology advancement of wind energy can help to keep global energy security and stability. An aggressive development and deployment of wind energy could in the long-term avoid 1/3 of gas and 1/28 of coal burned, and keep 1/2 biomass and 1/20 nuclear fuel saved from the global electricity system. The key is that wind resources are free and carbon-free. The results of this study are useful in broad coverage ranges from innovative technologies and systems of renewable energy to the economic industrial and domestic use of energy with no or minor impact on the environment.

  5. Future-proofing global health: Governance of priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Belinda; Cohen, I Glenn; Davies, Sara E; Gostin, Lawrence O; Hill, Peter S; Mankad, Aditi; Phelan, Alexandra L

    2018-05-01

    The year 2015 was a significant anniversary for global health: 15 years since the adoption of the Millennium Development Goals and the creation of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, followed two years later by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. 2015 was also the 10-year anniversary of the adoption of the International Health Regulations (May 2005) and the formal entering into force of the Framework Convention on the Tobacco Control (February 2005). The anniversary of these frameworks and institutions illustrates the growth and contribution of 'global' health diplomacy. Each initiative has also revealed on-going issues with compliance, sustainable funding and equitable attention in global health governance. In this paper, we present four thematic challenges that will continue to challenge prioritisation within global health governance into the future unless addressed: framing and prioritising within global health governance; identifying stakeholders of the global health community; understanding the relationship between health and behaviour; and the role of governance and regulation in supporting global health.

  6. Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, Rainer; Breivik, Knut; Dachs, Jordi; Muir, Derek

    2007-01-01

    For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks

  7. Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohmann, Rainer [Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882-1197 (United States)], E-mail: lohmann@gso.uri.edu; Breivik, Knut [Norwegian Institute for Air Research, PO Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); University of Oslo, Department of Chemistry, PO Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Dachs, Jordi [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08034 (Spain); Muir, Derek [Aquatic Ecosystem Protection Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, ON L7R4A6 (Canada)

    2007-11-15

    For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks.

  8. The Water Sensitive Future of Lahijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoumeh Mirsafa

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of the modern urban water system in Iran, albeit facilitated access to clean water and accelerated discharge of waste- and stormwater, it left some negative imprints on country’s urban and natural environment. Among which larger stress on natural water cycles and pollution of water resources are of great importance. More importantly, such impacts are occurring when cities are going through a changing climate, and are facing higher risks of water shortages and flooded urban surfaces in warm and wet seasons, respectively. The present research is built upon a case study conducted in Lahijan, a small city in northern Iran. Bridging between traditional urban design principles and water management practices, the study aims to find ways to connect place making with urban water infrastructure design in order to reintegrate water into the design of public spaces to create visually pleasant, environmentally sustainable and yet resilient contemporary urban forms. The analysis of the water-state of the traditional city reveals that stormwater has been an integrated into the design of Lahijan’s public spaces for centuries, and that the blue and green surfaces were the key components in constructing the porous landscape of Lahijan. As an endeavor to build new techniques upon the old traditions, the paper concludes that after a long period of absence of water in urban settings, water must be reintegrated in the design of public spaces. Accordingly, urban spaces of the future water sensitive Lahijan through various storage, conveyance, infiltration, and evaporation capacities shape the distributed on-site stormwater management infrastructure of the city which can adapt to the impacts of a changing environment while addressing the problems of water scarcity, flooding, and pollution.

  9. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  10. The Future Revisited: Can Global Learning Still Save the World?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hook, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a twelve-year review of my "OJDLA" article ("Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration," University of West Georgia) on the future of global learning, and updates related to issues such as societal need, technologies, course design, administration affairs, faculty support, and student service.

  11. Tourism Curriculum in a Global Perspective: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanacharoensil, Walanchalee

    2014-01-01

    This article summarizes the development of tourism curricula over the past 20 years from the perspective of global tourism. The paper proposes a generic framework for a future tourism curriculum on the basis of a review of literature in the American, British, and other European contexts. The proposed tourism curriculum aims to create well-rounded…

  12. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  14. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  15. Future trends in heavy water production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galley, M.R.

    1983-10-01

    World heavy water production has spanned nearly fifty years and, for much of that period, the commodity was often in short supply, but that situation has changed, at least in Canada. There are now adequate reserves of heavy water and sufficient installed production capacity to service Canadian domestic and export demands for the next ten years or beyond. More than 90 percent of the world's inventory of heavy water has been produced by the GS process but this may not be the method that is chosen when the time comes to expand heavy water production again. Other countries, such as India and Argentina, have already chosen ammonia-hydrogen exchange as an alternative technology for part of their domestic production programs. Despite the present surplus of heavy water, research and development of new technologies is very active, particularly in Canada and Japan, because it is recognized that there are still attractive opportunities for future production by processes that are both less expensive and environmentally more acceptable, than either the demonstrated GS process or ammonia-hydrogen alternative. This paper describes the prospects for some of these new processes, contrasts them with the present established methods and assesses the probable impact on the future supply situation

  16. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  17. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

    2017-06-01

    The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

  18. Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Creutzig, Felix; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

  19. A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

    2015-04-01

    We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

  20. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-06

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  1. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meg A Krawchuk

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade. We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research

  2. Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawchuk, Meg A; Moritz, Max A; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global

  3. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  4. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  5. Water, Society and the future of water resources research (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    The subject of water and society is broad, but at heart is the study of water as a resource, essential to human activities, a vital input to food and energy production, the sustaining medium for ecosystems and yet also a destructive hazard. Society demands, withdraws, competes, uses and wastes the resource in dynamic counterpart. The science of water management emerges from this interface, a field at the nexus of engineering and geoscience, with substantial influence from economics and other social sciences. Within this purview are some of the most pressing environmental questions of our time, such as adaptation to climate change, direct and indirect connections between water and energy policy, the continuing dependence of agriculture on depletion of the world's aquifers, the conservation or preservation of ecosystems within increasingly human-influenced river systems, and food security and poverty reduction for the earth's poorest inhabitants. This presentation will present and support the hypothesis that water resources research is a scientific enterprise separate from, yet closely interrelated to, hydrologic science. We will explore the scientific basis of water resources research, review pressing research questions and opportunities, and propose an action plan for the advancement of the science of water management. Finally, the presentation will propose a Chapman Conference on Water and Society: The Future of Water Resources Research in the spring of 2015.

  6. Personalized Telehealth in the Future: A Global Research Agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinesen, Birthe; Nonnecke, Brandie; Lindeman, David; Toft, Egon; Kidholm, Kristian; Jethwani, Kamal; Young, Heather M; Spindler, Helle; Oestergaard, Claus Ugilt; Southard, Jeffrey A; Gutierrez, Mario; Anderson, Nick; Albert, Nancy M; Han, Jay J; Nesbitt, Thomas

    2016-03-01

    As telehealth plays an even greater role in global health care delivery, it will be increasingly important to develop a strong evidence base of successful, innovative telehealth solutions that can lead to scalable and sustainable telehealth programs. This paper has two aims: (1) to describe the challenges of promoting telehealth implementation to advance adoption and (2) to present a global research agenda for personalized telehealth within chronic disease management. Using evidence from the United States and the European Union, this paper provides a global overview of the current state of telehealth services and benefits, presents fundamental principles that must be addressed to advance the status quo, and provides a framework for current and future research initiatives within telehealth for personalized care, treatment, and prevention. A broad, multinational research agenda can provide a uniform framework for identifying and rapidly replicating best practices, while concurrently fostering global collaboration in the development and rigorous testing of new and emerging telehealth technologies. In this paper, the members of the Transatlantic Telehealth Research Network offer a 12-point research agenda for future telehealth applications within chronic disease management.

  7. Integrated Water Resources Management: A Global Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, V.; Cohen, M.; Akudago, J.; Keith, D.; Palaniappan, M.

    2011-12-01

    The diversity of water resources endowments and the societal arrangements to use, manage, and govern water makes defining a single paradigm or lens through which to define, prioritize and evaluate interventions in the water sector particularly challenging. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) emerged as the dominant intervention paradigm for water sector interventions in the early 1990s. Since then, while many successful implementations of IWRM have been demonstrated at the local, basin, national and trans-national scales, IWRM has also been severely criticized by the global water community as "having a dubious record that has never been comprehensively analyzed", "curiously ambiguous", and "ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst". Does IWRM hold together as a coherent paradigm or is it a convenient buzzword to describe a diverse collection of water sector interventions? We analyzed 184 case study summaries of IWRM interventions on the Global Water Partnership (GWP) website. The case studies were assessed to find the nature, scale, objectives and outcomes of IWRM. The analysis does not suggest any coherence in IWRM as a paradigm - but does indicate distinct regional trends in IWRM. First, IWRM was done at very different scales in different regions. In Africa two-thirds of the IWRM interventions involved creating national or transnational organizations. In contrast, in Asia and South America, almost two-thirds were watershed, basin, or local body initiatives. Second, IWRM interventions involved very different types of activities in different regions. In Africa and Europe, IWRM entailed creation of policy documents, basin plans and institution building. In contrast, in Asia and Latin America the interventions were much more likely to entail new technology, infrastructure or watershed measures. In Australia, economic measures, new laws and enforcement mechanisms were more commonly used than anywhere else.

  8. Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

  9. An updated view of global water cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, P. R.; Schlosser, A.; Lehr, J.

    2009-04-01

    Unprecedented new observation capacities combined with revolutions in modeling, we are poised to make huge advances in water cycle assessment, understanding, and prediction. To realize this goal, we must develop a discipline of prediction and verification through the integration of water and energy cycle observations and models, and to verify model predictions against observed phenomena to ensure that research delivers reliable improvements in prediction skill. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability, through integration of all necessary observations and research tools. A brief history of the lineage of the conventional water balance and a summary accounting of all major parameters of the water balance using highly respected secondary sources will be presented. Principally, recently published peer reviewed papers reporting results of original work involving direct measurements and new data generated by high-tech devices (e.g. satellite / airborne instruments, supercomputers, geophysical tools) will be employed. This work lends credence to the conventional water balance ideas, but also reveals anachronistic scientific concepts/models, questionable underlying data, longstanding oversights and outright errors in the water balance.

  10. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  11. Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

  12. Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padowski, Julie C; Gorelick, Steven M

    2014-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

  13. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  14. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  15. Scientific Achievements of Global ENA Imaging and Future Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, P. C.; Stephens, G. K.; Hsieh, S. Y. W.; Demajistre, R.; Gkioulidou, M.

    2017-12-01

    Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imaging is the only technique that can capture the instantaneous global state of energetic ion distributions in planetary magnetospheres and from the heliosheath. In particular at Earth, ENA imaging has been used to diagnose the morphology and dynamics of the ring current and plasma sheet down to several minutes time resolution and is therefore a critical tool to validate global ring current physics models. However, this requires a detailed understanding for how ENAs are produced from the ring current and inversion techniques that are thoroughly validated against in-situ measurements. To date, several missions have carried out planetary and heliospheric ENA imaging including Cassini, JUICE, IBEX of the heliosphere, and POLAR, Astrid-1, Double Star, TWINS and IMAGE of the terrestrial magnetosphere. Because of their path-finding successes, a future global-imaging mission concept, MEDICI, has been recommended in the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. Its core mission consists of two satellites in one circular, near-polar orbit beyond the radiation belts at around 8 RE, with ENA, EUV and FUV cameras. This recommendation has driven the definition of smaller mission concepts that address specific science aspects of the MEDICI concept. In this presentation, we review the past scientific achievements of ENA imaging with a focus on the terrestrial magnetosphere from primarily the NASA IMAGE and the TWINS missions. The highlighted achievements include the storm, sub-storm and quiet-time morphology, dynamics and pitch-angle distributions of the ring current, global differential acceleration of protons versus O+ ions, the structure of the global electrical current systems associated with the plasma pressure of protons and O+ ions up to around 200 keV, and the relation between ring current and plasmasphere. We discuss the need for future global observations of the ring current, plasma sheet and magnetosheath ion distributions based and derive their

  16. The Global Geostationary Wildfire ABBA: Current Implementation and Future Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, E.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hoffman, J.; Brunner, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

    2012-12-01

    The Wild Fire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA), developed at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), has a long legacy of operational near real-time wildfire detection and characterization in the Western Hemisphere. The first phase of the global geostationary WF_ABBA was made operational at NOAA NESDIS in 2009 and currently includes diurnal active fire monitoring from GOES-East, GOES-South America, GOES-West, Meteosat-9 and MTSAT-1R/-2. This allows for near global active fire monitoring with coverage of Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific utilizing distinct geostationary sensors and a consistent algorithm. Version 6.5.006 of the WF_ABBA was specifically designed to address the capabilities and limitations of diverse geostationary sensors and requests from the global fire monitoring and user community. This presentation will provide an overview of version 6.5.006 of the global WF_ABBA fire product including the new fire and opaque cloud mask and associated metadata. We will demonstrate the WF_ABBA showing examples from around the globe with a focus on the capabilities and plans for integrating new geostationary platforms with coverage of Eastern Europe and Asia (INSAT-3D, Korean COMS, Russian GOMS Elektro-L MSU-GS). We are also preparing for future fire monitoring in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Africa utilizing the next generation GOES-R Imager and Meteosat Third Generation Flexible Combined Imager (MTG - FCI). The goal is to create a globally consistent long-term fire product utilizing the capabilities of each of these unique operational systems and a common fire detection algorithm. On an international level, development of a global geostationary fire monitoring system is supported by the IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team. This work also generally supports Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) activities and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO).

  17. The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindholt, Lars; Glomsroed, Solveig

    2011-07-01

    The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic regions during 2010-2050 along with global economic growth and different assumptions regarding petroleum prices and resource endowments. Supply is calculated based on a global model of oil and gas markets. The data on undiscovered resources for the Arctic is based on the estimates by USGS. Sensitivity studies are carried out for two alternative price scenarios and for a 50 per cent reduction of arctic undiscovered resources compared with the USGS 2008 resource estimate. Although a major part of the undiscovered arctic petroleum resources is natural gas, our results show that the relative importance of the Arctic as a world gas supplier will decline, while its importance as a global oil producer may be maintained. We also show that less than full access to undiscovered oil resources will have minor effect on total arctic oil production and a marginal effect on arctic gas extraction. The reason is that Arctic Russia is an important petroleum producer with a sufficiently large stock of already discovered resources to support their petroleum production before 2050. (Author)

  18. Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2018-06-01

    Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

  19. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.

    2017-08-01

    Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  20. Feeding the nuclear pipeline: Enabling a global nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, A.E.

    2004-01-01

    Nuclear energy, which exhibits a unique combination of environmental and sustainable attributes, appears strongly positioned to play a much larger and more pivotal role in the mix of future global energy supplies than it has played in the past. Unfortunately, enrolment patterns in nuclear engineering programmes have seriously eroded over the past decade - causing alarmingly low enrolment levels in many countries by the turn of the century and a sobering concern that the nuclear manpower pipeline cannot keep up with the emerging needs of the nuclear industry. On the positive side, enrolment patterns within the United States are now generally on the rise, at least at the undergraduate level. A few of the particularly successful efforts initiated by various sectors of the U.S. nuclear infrastructure to stimulate this rebound are shared in this paper with the hope that some of them might be beneficially employed in other global settings. (author)

  1. Perspectives : How global food traders manage our water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warner, J.F.; Keulertz, M.; Sojamo, S.

    2015-01-01

    To many analysts, global water governance is about getting the institutions right: more accountable water users and more public participation in decisions. But are we barking up the right tree? In this analysis, we argue that when analysing global water governance, one needs to look at the global

  2. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  3. Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backman, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

  4. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  5. The future of global health education: training for equity in global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Adams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Among academic institutions in the United States, interest in global health has grown substantially: by the number of students seeking global health opportunities at all stages of training, and by the increase in institutional partnerships and newly established centers, institutes, and initiatives to house global health programs at undergraduate, public health and medical schools. Witnessing this remarkable growth should compel health educators to question whether the training and guidance that we provide to students today is appropriate, and whether it will be applicable in the next decade and beyond. Given that “global health” did not exist as an academic discipline in the United States 20 years ago, what can we expect it will look like 20 years from now and how can we prepare for that future? Discussion Most clinicians and trainees today recognize the importance of true partnership and capacity building in both directions for successful international collaborations. The challenge is in the execution of these practices. There are projects around the world where this is occurring and equitable partnerships have been established. Based on our experience and observations of the current landscape of academic global health, we share a perspective on principles of engagement, highlighting instances where partnerships have thrived, and examples of where we, as a global community, have fallen short. Conclusions As the world moves beyond the charity model of global health (and its colonial roots, it is evident that the issue underlying ethical global health practice is partnership and the pursuit of health equity. Thus, achieving equity in global health education and practice ought to be central to our mission as educators and advisors when preparing trainees for careers in this field. Seeking to eliminate health inequities wherever they are ingrained will reveal the injustices around the globe and in our own cities and

  6. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  7. Closing of water circuits – a global benchmark on sustainable water management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fröhlich Siegmund

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: “The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water.” [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

  8. Closing of water circuits - a global benchmark on sustainable water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fröhlich, Siegmund

    2017-11-01

    Access to clean water resources has always been a crucial factor in the history of mankind. Now, in the 21st century, water, as an increasingly scarce resource, will take a strategic role for the future development of global populations. As the former UN Secretary General Dr. Dr. Boutrous Boutrous Ghali predicts: "The wars of the 21st century will be fought not over oil, they will be fought over water." [1]. In nine global examples will be demonstrated the different ways of dealing with water resources. That are: Mexico City, Egypt, Libya, DOW Terneuzen, Los Angeles, Israel, China and Singapore and also global trends, such as, scarcity & rural exodus and salinization of soil. Thereby, he explains the different kinds of water management to be observed. The most relevant prognosis of the WHO is, that to the end of 21st century Africa's population will grow over proportionally from 1 billion now up to nearly 4 billion [9]. That is why all efforts need to be concentrated on helping Africa create a sustainable economic development. The first and by far most important strategic step is to assure access to clean water resources in the rural and mostly arid regions of the continent. The lecturer shows several technological proposals on how to overcame problems like: water scarcity, rural exodus, salinization of soil and others. Such technologies could be successfully implemented in sustainable development programs in African countries.

  9. Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Tjiputra

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO2 gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO2 partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even

  10. Global climate changes in the past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1993-01-01

    Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

  11. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  12. Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selin, N E; Nam, K M; Reilly, J M; Paltsev, S; Prinn, R G; Webster, M D; Wu, S

    2009-01-01

    We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis - Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We use EPPA-HE to assess the human health damages (including mortality and morbidity) caused by ozone pollution, and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that mortalities from acute exposure will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.

  13. The Copernicus Global Land Service: present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacaze, Roselyne; Smets, Bruno; Trigo, Isabel; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Jann, Alexander; Camacho, Fernando; Baret, Frédéric; Kidd, Richard; Defourny, Pierre; Tansey, Kevin; Pacholczyk, Philippe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Szintai, Balazs

    2013-04-01

    From 1st January 2013, the Copernicus Global Land Service is operational, providing continuously to European, African and International users a set of biophysical variables describing the vegetation conditions, the energy budget at the continental surface and the water cycle over the whole globe at one kilometer resolution. These generic products can serve numerous applications such as agriculture and food security monitoring, weather forecast, climate change impact studies, water, forest and natural resources management. The Copernicus Global Land Service is built on the achievements of the BioPar component of the FP7 geoland2 project. Essential Climate Variables like the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the Fraction of PAR absorbed by the vegetation (FAPAR), the surface albedo, the Land Surface Temperature, the soil moisture, the burnt areas, the areas of water bodies, and additional vegetation indices, are generated every hour, every day or every 10 days on a reliable and automatic basis from Earth Observation satellite data. Beside this timely production, the available historical archives have been processed, using the same innovative algorithms, to get consistent time series as long as possible. As an example, more than 30 years of LAI and FAPAR relying on NOAA/AVHRR sensors (from 1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT sensors (from 1999 to the present) are now available. All products are accessible, free of charge and after registration, at the following address: http://www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html. Documentation describing the physical methodologies, the technical properties of products, and the results of validation exercises can also be downloaded. In view of service continuity, research and development are performed on two parallel ways. On one hand, the existing retrieval methodologies will be adapted to new input data sets (e.g. Proba-V and Sentinel-3 at 1km resolution) that will be used in replacement of current sensor (SPOT/VGT) which reached the end

  14. Renewables Global Futures Report: Great debates towards 100% renewable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teske, Sven; Fattal, Alex; Lins, Christine; Hullin, Martin; Williamson, Laura E.

    2017-01-01

    The first version of REN21's Renewables Global Futures Report (GFR) published in January 2013 identified a panorama of likely future debates related to the renewable energy transition. As a reflection of the wide range of contemporary thinking by the many experts interviewed for the report, it did not present just one vision of the future but rather a 'mosaic' of insights. Given the positive feedback in response to the first edition, a new edition has been prepared, continuing where the last one left off. The objective of this report is to gather opinions about the feasibility of a 100% renewable energy future, and the macro-economic impacts it would entail. In so doing, the report reflects on the debates of 2013, and tracks their evolution to the present time. Some remain, some have changed, some have been overtaken by progress, and new ones have arisen. They are summarised here as the Great Debates in renewable energy. The questionnaire for the survey was developed in close cooperation between the REN21 Secretariat, the Institute for Sustainable Future (ISF) of the University of Technology Sydney/Australia (UTS) and the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam/Germany. It covered the following topics: 1. How much renewables?; 2. Power sector; 3. Heating and cooling; 4. Transport; 5. Storage; 6. Demand-side management and energy efficiency; 7. Integration of sectors; 8. Macro-economic considerations; 9. Technology and costs; 10. Policy; 11. Cities; 12. Distributed renewable energy/energy access; 13. Barriers/challenges/enablers. 114 experts were interviewed in total; the average interview time was approximately one hour. The interviews were conducted between May and October 2016. The questionnaire was also mirrored in an online version and used both by interviewers and interviewees to record the interview process. Interviewees were selected from the following regions: Africa, Australia and Oceania, China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America

  15. Double or quits?: The global future of civil nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, Peter; Grimston, Malcolm

    2004-01-01

    Among the many disputes in the field of energy, in many countries none appear to be as acrimonious as those surrounding nuclear power. Its supporters are confident that nuclear power will have an important long-term future on the global energy scene, while its critics are equally confident that its days are numbered and that it was only developed to provide a political fig-leaf for a nuclear weapons programme. Both sides believe the other to be thoroughly biased or stupid and there is little constructive debate between them. As the disputes rage, especially over such issues as the management of nuclear waste, the economics and safety of nuclear power compared with other sources of electricity, the possible links with nuclear weapons and the attitude of the public towards the industry, decision-making is either paralysed or dominated by those who shout loudest. As a result, governments, industry and the financial sector have in recent years found it increasingly difficult to develop policy in this field. Deciding about future energy developments requires balanced and trustworthy information about issues such as the relative environmental effects of different options, the safety of installations, economics and the availability of resources. This is of particular importance now because world energy use is expected to continue to grow significantly during this century, particularly in less developed countries. In the same period, global emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, will have to be severely curbed. To meet both these requirements may well involve a step change away from being able to meet growing energy needs by depending on an ever increasing supply of carboniferous fossil fuel. To address this situation, the Royal Institute of International Affairs undertook a two-year research project, aimed at providing information from the standpoint of an organization with no vested interest in either the pro or the anti camp, but close connections to

  16. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rost, Stefanie; Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Gerten, Dieter

    2010-04-01

    SummaryKnowledge of the virtual water content (VWC) of crops and especially its possible future developments is helpful for improvements in water productivity and water management, which are necessary at global scale due to rising demand for food, the necessity to ease present and future water scarcity, and the reduction of poverty. Using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model (LPJmL), this study quantifies the VWC of two of the most important crop types worldwide, temperate cereals and maize, at high spatial resolution (0.5°). We analyzed present conditions (1999-2003) and also for the first time also for scenarios of future climate and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2041-2070; HadCM3, ECHAM5 and CCSM3 climate models, A2 emissions scenario). VWC presently differs significantly among regions: highest values are common in large parts of Africa (>2 m 3 kg -1), and lowest values were found e.g. for Central Europe (Europe, South Africa, Argentina, Australia and South East Asia—are projected to become less water efficient (higher VWC) for at least one of the crop types. CO 2 fertilisation was simulated to generally reduce VWC, though realisation of this effect in the field will depend, for example, on the intensity of nutrient management in the future. The potentially adverse future changes in VWC found here pose a challenge to water management efforts and eventually global trade policies.

  17. Human and climate impacts on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819

    2013-01-01

    Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water

  18. Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven

    2017-04-01

    The relevance of inland waters to global biogeochemical cycles is increasingly recognized, and of particular importance is their contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The latter remain largely unreported in African inland waters. Here we report dissolved CO2, CH4 and N2O from 12 rivers in Sub-Saharan Africa acquired during >30 field expeditions and additional seasonally resolved sampling at >30 sites between 2006 and 2014. Fluxes were calculated from reported gas transfer velocity values, and upscaled using available spatial datasets, with an estimated uncertainty of about ±19%. CO2 equivalent emissions ( 0.4±0.1 PgC yr-1) match 2/3 of the overall net carbon sink previously reported for Africa. Including emissions from wetlands of the Congo, the putative total emission ( 0.9±0.1 PgC yr-1) is about half of the global oceanic or land carbon sinks. In-situ respiration supported <14% of riverine CO2 emissions, which must therefore largely be driven by mineralization in wetlands or uplands. Riverine CO2 and CH4 emissions were directly correlated to wetland coverage and aboveground vegetation biomass, implying that future changes in wetland and upland vegetation cover will strongly impact GHG emissions from African inland waters.

  19. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  20. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2012-04-17

    Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

  1. Is there a lean future for global startups?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanev, Stoyan

    2017-01-01

    This article integrates insights from the latest research on the lean startup entrepreneurial method, born-global firms, and global startups. It contributes to the clarification of terminology referring to the global aspects of startups, summarizes insights from previous literature focusing on gl......-based global startup research and practice. The analysis should benefit both researchers and practitioners in technology entrepreneurship, international entrepreneurship, and global innovation management.......This article integrates insights from the latest research on the lean startup entrepreneurial method, born-global firms, and global startups. It contributes to the clarification of terminology referring to the global aspects of startups, summarizes insights from previous literature focusing...... on global startups, and further substantiates the articulation of the need for considering the lean global startup as a new type of firm. The main message is that the lessons learned from the emergence of lean startup entrepreneurship offer a basis for promoting a similar lean phase in technology...

  2. A novel approach for examining future US domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching policy makers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistic...

  3. The "Global Heritage Stone Resource": Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Barry

    2013-04-01

    The "Global Heritage Stone Resource" designation arose in 2007 as a suggested mechanism to enhance international recognition of famous dimension stones. There were also many aspects of dimension stone study that had no formal recognition in mainstream geology and which could be recognised in a formal geological sense via an internationally acceptable geological standard. Such a standard could also receive recognition by other professionals and the wider community. From the start, it was appreciated that active quarrying would an important aspect of the designation so a designation different to any other standard was needed. Also the project was linked to the long-established Commission C-10 Building Stone and Ornamental Rocks of the International Association of Engineering Geology and the Environment (IAEG C-10). Since 2007, the "Global Heritage Stone Resource" (GHSR) proposal has evolved in both in stature and purpose due to an increasing number of interested international correspondents that were actively sought via conference participation. The "English Stone Forum" in particular was pursuing similar aims and was quick to advise that English dimension stone types were being recognised as having international, national or regional importance. Furthermore the proposed designation was suggested as to having significant value in safeguarding designated stone types whilst also providing a potential mechanism in preventing heritage stone replacement by cheap substitutes. During development it also became apparent that stone types having practical applications such as roofing slates and millstones or even stone types utilised by prehistoric man can also be recognised by the new designation. The heritage importance of architects was also recognised. Most importantly an international network evolved, primarily including geologists, that now seems to be the largest international grouping of dimension stone professionals. This has assisted the project to affiliate with the

  4. Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

  5. Feeding the nuclear pipeline: Enabling a global nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waltar, Alan E.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: There is nothing more vital to the advancement of human civilization than the abundance of usable and affordable energy. It underpins national security, economic prosperity, and global stability. Nuclear energy, which exhibits a unique combination of environmental and sustainable attributes, appears strongly positioned to play a much larger and more pivotal role in the mix of future global energy supplies than it has played in the past. Unfortunately, after a fairly rapid growth period within the industrialized nations in the 1960 to 1980 time frame, a variety of factors led to a substantial reduction in commercial nuclear power plant construction (with the possible exception of several Pacific Rim countries). This, in turn, led to a serious erosion in the enrollment patterns of nuclear engineering programs - causing alarmingly low enrollment levels in many counties by the turn of the century. Numerous studies conducted over the past five years have soberly come to the consistent conclusion that the nuclear pipeline cannot keep up with the needs of the nuclear industry. In fact, when combining the aging work force with low matriculation rates in most nuclear engineering academic programs, a huge (and unacceptable) mismatch between needs and supply is strikingly evident. This is further exasperated by the lack of meaningful efforts to capture the knowledge of the 'first nuclear era' professionals in a form that can be effectively transferred to the upcoming generation. Methods must be found to better capture the enormous body of experience already accumulated and both document it and then mentor the new nuclear engineers that do enter the work force to enable them to build upon this experience, rather than having to re-create it. On the positive side, enrollment patterns in the majority of nuclear engineering programs still in existence within the United States are now generally on the rise, at least at the undergraduate level. Some programs have

  6. The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickering, M. D.; Horsburgh, K. J.; Blundell, J. R.; Hirschi, J. J.-M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Verlaan, M.; Wells, N. C.

    2017-06-01

    Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at 10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

  7. FUTURE WATER MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS IN ASIAN MEGACITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Prinz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, about half of the world population lives in urban areas and in the coming 20 years, urbanization is expected to increase steadily, especially in the Developing World. Based on UN data and projections, about 4 out of the 5 billion world urban population will live in developing countries by 2030. Large cities in the Developing World face the problem of unplanned growth, coupled with the financial and operational inability to offer the public services needed to sustain a decent life in urban environments. Water is one of those essential commodities which is often short in supply and/or of low quality. Additionally, flood poses a threat to urban dwellers during rainy season. The water management challenges in tropical urban areas today and in the decades to come can be characterized by (1 fighting physical shortcomings in water resources, (2 coping with contamination of groundwater, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs by domestic, agricultural or industrial waste and waste water, (3 mitigating environmental impacts of water extraction (such as loss of wetlands, subsidence and seawater intrusion , (4 preventing / mastering flood situations and (5 overcoming administrative and financial strains and operational incapacities. Solutions to the problems of urban water in 20 years time are to be found in supply side and demand side measures. The first group includes (1 optimal use of surface water and groundwater resources, (2 pollution protection, (3 watershed management and (4 more water storage. The second group includes (1 educational training, (2 technological innovation, (3 water conservation and (4 water pricing.

  8. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur PJ; Oosterveer, Peter

    2014-01-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology’s contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology’s strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change. PMID:25937642

  9. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lidskog, Rolf; Mol, Arthur Pj; Oosterveer, Peter

    2015-05-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of sociology in a globalised world. It discusses how environmental sociology in the US and Europe differ in their understandings of sociology's contribution to the study of the environment. Particular stress is placed on how these two regions differ with respect to their use of the tradition of sociological thought, views on what constitutes the environment and ways of institutionalising environmental sociology as a sociological field. In conclusion, the question is raised of whether current versions of environmental sociology are appropriate for analysing a globalised world environment; or whether environmental sociology's strong roots in European and US cultures make it less relevant when facing an increasingly globalised world. Finally, the article proposes some new rules for a global environmental sociology and describes some of their possible implications for the sociological study of climate change.

  10. Future directions in water quality regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pontius, F.W.

    1997-01-01

    The Safe Drinking Water Act amendments of 1996 have imposed new requirements on the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to establish drinking water regulations. The regulatory process has been revised and now requires the use of sound science. Costs, benefits, and competing risks may also be considered. Current regulations for fluoride, volatile organic chemicals, total coliforms, surface water treatment, Phase 2 and Phase 5 synthetic organic and inorganic contaminants, and lead and copper remain basically unchanged. New deadlines are established for the regulation of arsenic, sulfate, radon, disinfectants and disinfection by-products, enhanced surface water treatment, and groundwater disinfection

  11. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

  12. Monitoring Water Quality in the Future, Volume 3: Biomonitoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwart D de; ECO

    1995-01-01

    In general terms the problems with the existing water quality monitoring approach concern effective and efficient monitoring strategies. In 1993 the project "Monitoring water quality in the future" started in order to address these problems which will only increase in the future. In the framework of

  13. Energy-Water-Land Nexus: The relative contributions of climate and human systems on global water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Chen, M.; Turner, S. W. D.; Graham, N. T.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Kim, S. H.; Link, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    There is a growing consensus that energy, water, and land systems are interconnected and should be analyzed as such. New tools are required to represent the interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamically evolving system. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. The model accounts for a variety of human activities, including changing demands for water for agriculture, power generation, industry, and public supply. We find that these activities exert a larger influence on water scarcity than climate in 93% of river basins globally. This work highlights the importance of accounting for human activities in hydrologic modeling applications and how they may change under different pathways of how land use and agricultural systems, energy systems, and economies may evolve in the future.

  14. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  15. [Globalization and infectious diseases: the past and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotto, Gaetano

    2011-03-01

    Globalization is a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour. Globalization is not a new phenomenon. Today the concept of globalization can be extended to include global exposure to infectious diseases, which is becoming more apparent. The aim of this article is to examine the influence of globalization on the outbreak and spread of infections in the world.

  16. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  17. Is There a Lean Future for Global Startups?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stoyan Tanev

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article integrates insights from the latest research on the lean startup entrepreneurial method, born-global firms, and global startups. It contributes to the clarification of terminology referring to the global aspects of startups, summarizes insights from previous literature focusing on global startups, and further substantiates the articulation of the need for considering the lean global startup as a new type of firm. The main message is that the lessons learned from the emergence of lean startup entrepreneurship offer a basis for promoting a similar lean phase in technology-based global startup research and practice. The analysis should benefit both researchers and practitioners in technology entrepreneurship, international entrepreneurship, and global innovation management.

  18. Future land-use related water demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

  19. Global water cycle: geochemistry and environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berner, Elizabeth Kay; Berner, Robert A

    1987-01-01

    .... The book provides an integrated approach to global geochemistry and environmental problems and introduces the reader to some fundamental concepts of geology, oceanography, meteorology, environmental...

  20. Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Callisto

    Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

  1. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana D Davidson

    Full Text Available Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial

  2. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the

  3. Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

    2013-06-01

    An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

  4. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  5. Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

  6. A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

  7. Water security-National and global issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tindall, James A.; Campbell, Andrew A.

    2010-01-01

    Potable or clean freshwater availability is crucial to life and economic, environmental, and social systems. The amount of freshwater is finite and makes up approximately 2.5 percent of all water on the Earth. Freshwater supplies are small and randomly distributed, so water resources can become points of conflict. Freshwater availability depends upon precipitation patterns, changing climate, and whether the source of consumed water comes directly from desalination, precipitation, or surface and (or) groundwater. At local to national levels, difficulties in securing potable water sources increase with growing populations and economies. Available water improves living standards and drives urbanization, which increases average water consumption per capita. Commonly, disruptions in sustainable supplies and distribution of potable water and conflicts over water resources become major security issues for Government officials. Disruptions are often influenced by land use, human population, use patterns, technological advances, environmental impacts, management processes and decisions, transnational boundaries, and so forth.

  8. Future global ethics: environmental change, embedded ethics, evolving human identity.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Work on global ethics looks at ethical connections on a global scale. It should link closely to environmental ethics, recognizing that we live in unified social-ecological systems, and to development ethics, attending systematically to the lives and interests of

  9. Water research to support society: past, present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arheimer, Berit

    2014-05-01

    . Historical changes in focus areas clearly reflect the shifts in societal needs, going from industrialization to the information society and globalization. Present research needs will be illustrated in the on-going practical work to support water managers and decision makers with hydrological forecasts, climate change impact assessments, improved water status for biodiversity and statistics for dimensioning safe infrastructure. Different approaches to applied research and ways to implement new knowledge in society will be discussed. Future research is suggested to embrace the complexity of the water systems by linking scales, monitoring systems, processes, disciplines and various users. Some ingredients to achieve a coordinated effort in the scientific community will be suggested, based on new technology, multi-data, transparency and the principles of sharing. To handle the problems of the Antropocene, improved knowledge accumulation to advance science and interactions with other disciplines is absolutely necessary. These should be the basic elements of Panta Rhei.

  10. Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

  11. Advances in Global Water Cycle Science Made Possible by Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Within this decade the internationally sponsored Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams from very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and on to blends of the former datastreams with other less-high caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of NASA's role in global water cycle science and its own Global Water & Energy Cycle (GWEC) program, GPM is the centerpiece mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a space-based measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in global temperature. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination, This paper presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Mission and how its datasets can be used in a set of quantitative tests within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine comprehensively whether substantive rate changes do accompany perturbations in global temperatures and how such rate changes manifest themselves in both water storage and water flux transport processes.

  12. Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B.; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Grogan, Danielle S.; Frolking, Steve

    2017-10-01

    Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a global partial equilibrium grid-resolving model SIMPLE-G, and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the consequences of reducing unsustainable irrigation for food security, land use change, and terrestrial carbon. A variety of future (2050) scenarios are considered that interact irrigation productivity with two policy interventions— inter-basin water transfers and international commodity market integration. We find that pursuing sustainable irrigation may erode other development and environmental goals due to higher food prices and cropland expansion. This results in over 800 000 more undernourished people and 0.87 GtC additional emissions. Faster total factor productivity growth in irrigated sectors will encourage more aggressive irrigation water use in the basins where irrigation vulnerability is expected to be reduced by inter-basin water transfer. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future irrigation vulnerability, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge.

  13. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data

  14. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Earth Observations for Global Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawford, Richard; Strauch, Adrian; Toll, David; Fekete, Balazs; Cripe, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    The combined effects of population growth, increasing demands for water to support agriculture, energy security, and industrial expansion, and the challenges of climate change give rise to an urgent need to carefully monitor and assess trends and variations in water resources. Doing so will ensure that sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe and useable water will serve as a foundation for water security. Both satellite and in situ observations combined with data assimilation and models are needed for effective, integrated monitoring of the water cycle's trends and variability in terms of both quantity and quality. On the basis of a review of existing observational systems, we argue that a new integrated monitoring capability for water security purposes is urgently needed. Furthermore, the components for this capability exist and could be integrated through the cooperation of national observational programmes. The Group on Earth Observations should play a central role in the design, implementation, management and analysis of this system and its products.

  16. Back to the future: Rethinking global control of tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, Barry R; Atun, Rifat

    2016-03-09

    If the ultimate goal of controlling an infectious disease is to interrupt transmission, the current global tuberculosis strategy is not succeeding. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. How Will Copper Contamination Constrain Future Global Steel Recycling?

    OpenAIRE

    Daehn, Katrin; Cabrera Serrenho, Andre; Allwood, Julian Mark

    2017-01-01

    Copper in steel causes metallurgical problems, but is pervasive in end-of-life scrap and cannot currently be removed commercially once in the melt. Contamination can be managed to an extent by globally trading scrap for use in tolerant applications and dilution with primary iron sources. However, the viability of long-term strategies can only be evaluated with a complete characterization of copper in the global steel system and this is presented in this paper. The copper concentration of flow...

  18. Future Investment in Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Beider, Perry

    2002-01-01

    ... in maintaining and replacing their pipes, treatment plants, and other infrastructure. But there is neither consensus on the size and timing of future investment costs nor agreement on the impact of those costs on households and other water ratepayers...

  19. Water for bioenergy: A global analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; van der Meer, Theodorus H.; Gasparatos, A.; Stromberg, P.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture is by far the largest water user. This chapter reviews studies on the water footprints (WFs) of bioenergy (in the form of bioethanol, biodiesel, and heat and electricity produced from biomass) and compares their results with the WFs of fossil energy and other types of renewables (wind

  20. The Future of Education for All as a Global Regime of Educational Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikly, Leon

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the future of Education for All (EFA) understood as a global regime of educational governance. The article sets out an understanding of global governance, world order, power, and legitimacy within which EFA is embedded. It explains what is meant by EFA as a regime of global governance and as part of a "regime…

  1. How Will Copper Contamination Constrain Future Global Steel Recycling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daehn, Katrin E; Cabrera Serrenho, André; Allwood, Julian M

    2017-06-06

    Copper in steel causes metallurgical problems, but is pervasive in end-of-life scrap and cannot currently be removed commercially once in the melt. Contamination can be managed to an extent by globally trading scrap for use in tolerant applications and dilution with primary iron sources. However, the viability of long-term strategies can only be evaluated with a complete characterization of copper in the global steel system and this is presented in this paper. The copper concentration of flows along the 2008 steel supply chain is estimated from a survey of literature data and compared with estimates of the maximum concentration that can be tolerated in steel products. Estimates of final steel demand and scrap supply by sector are taken from a global stock-saturation model to determine when the amount of copper in the steel cycle will exceed that which can be tolerated. Best estimates show that quantities of copper arising from conventional scrap preparation can be managed in the global steel system until 2050 assuming perfectly coordinated trade and extensive dilution, but this strategy will become increasingly impractical. Technical and policy interventions along the supply chain are presented to close product loops before this global constraint.

  2. Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

  3. The role of scarcity in global virtual water flows

    OpenAIRE

    Lenzen, Manfred; Bhaduri, Anik; Moran, Daniel; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Bekchanov, Maksud

    2012-01-01

    Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly draw on the rest of the world to alleviate the pressure on their domestic water resources. Our work builds on these studies, but fills three important gaps in the research on global virtual water trade. First, we note that in previous studies virtual w...

  4. Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

    2017-12-01

    Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

  5. Past, current and future water footprints, water scarcity and virtual water flows in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhuo, L.

    2016-01-01

    The increasing water consumption as a result of population growth and economic development, especially in fast growing developing countries, puts an increasing strain on the sustainable use of the globe’s finite freshwater resources and poses a key challenge for the future. The objective of the

  6. Using Systems Thinking to train future leaders in global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Anne; Frost, Laura J

    2017-07-09

    Systems Thinking provides a useful set of concepts and tools that can be used to train students to be effective and innovative global health leaders in an ever-changing and often chaotic world. This paper describes an experiential, multi-disciplinary curriculum that uses Systems Thinking to frame and analyse global health policies and practices. The curriculum uses case studies and hands-on activities to deepen students' understanding of the following concepts: complex adaptive systems, dynamic complexity, inter-relationships, feedback loops, policy resistance, mental models, boundary critique, leverage points, and multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral, and multi-stakeholder thinking and action. A sample of Systems Thinking tools for analysing global health policies and practices are also introduced.

  7. Global Water Governance in the Context of Global and Multilevel Governance: Its Need, Form, and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joyeeta Gupta

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To complement this Special Feature on global water governance, we focused on a generic challenge at the global level, namely, the degree to which water issues need to be dealt with in a centralized, concentrated, and hierarchical manner. We examined water ecosystem services and their impact on human well-being, the role of policies, indirect and direct drivers in influencing these services, and the administrative level(s at which the provision of services and potential trade-offs can be dealt with. We applied a politics of scale perspective to understand motivations for defining a problem at the global or local level and show that the multilevel approach to water governance is evolving and inevitable. We argue that a centralized overarching governance system for water is unlikely and possibly undesirable; however, there is a need for a high-level think tank and leadership to develop a cosmopolitan perspective to promote sustainable water development.

  8. Advances in Understanding Global Water Cycle with Advent of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Within this decade the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, GPM serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a global measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., climate warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination. This paper presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its observations can be used within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine whether a given perturbation in precipitation is indicative of an actual rate change in the global water cycle, consistent with required responses in water storage and/or water flux transport processes, or whether it is the natural variability of a fixed rate cycle.

  9. Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabeh ul Hasson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

  10. Global warming and the future of the Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Watts, Robert

    2007-01-01

    The globally averaged surface temperature of the Earth has increased during the past century by about 0.7°C. Most of the increase can be attributed to the greenhouse effect, the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide that is emitted when fossil fuels are burned to produce energy.The book begins with the important distinction between weather and climate, followed by data showing how carbon dioxide has increased and the incontrovertible evidence that it is caused by burning fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas). I also address the inevitable skepticism that global

  11. Future directions in boiling water reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkins, D.R.; Hucik, S.A.; Duncan, J.D.; Sweeney, J.I.

    1987-01-01

    The Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR) is being developed by an international team of BWR manufacturers to respond to worldwide utility needs in the 1990's. Major objectives of the ABWR program are design simplification; improved safety and reliability; reduced construction, fuel and operating costs; improved maneuver-ability; and reduced occupational exposure and radwaste. The ABWR incorporates the best proven features from BWR designs in Europe, Japan and the United States and application of leading edge technology. Key features of the ABWR are internal recirculation pumps; fine-motion, electrohydraulic control rod drives; digital control and instrumentation; multiplexed, fiber optic cabling netwoek; pressure suppression containment with horizontal vents; cylindrical reinforced concrete containment; structural integration of the containment and reactor building; severe accident capability; state-of-the-art fuel; advanced trubine/generator with 52'' last stage buckets; and advanced radwaste technology. The ABWR is ready for lead plant application in Japan, where it is being developed as the next generation Japan standard BWR under the guidance and leadership of The Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc. and a group of Japanese BWR utilities. In the United States it is being adapted to the needs of US utilities through the Electric Power Research Institute's Advanced LWR Requirements Program, and is being reviewed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for certification as a preapproved US standard BWR under the US Department of Energy's ALWR Design Verification Program. These cooperative Japanese and US programs are expected to establish the ABWR as a world class BWR for the 1990's...... (author)

  12. Global gray water footprint and water pollution levels related to anthropogenic nitrogen loads to fresh water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen, Mesfin; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2015-01-01

    This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater,

  13. Development of a Global Lifelong Learning Index for Future Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, JuSeuk

    2016-01-01

    Since the transition from industrial society to a knowledge-based society, the source of national competitiveness is also changing. In this context, lifelong education has become a new competitive strategy for countries. This study broadly consists of three steps. Step I features a theoretical review of global lifelong learning indices and a…

  14. Global trade and health: key linkages and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettcher, D W; Yach, D; Guindon, G E

    2000-01-01

    Globalization of trade, marketing and investment has important implications for public health, both negative and positive. This article considers the implications of the single package of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements for public health research and policy, focusing on three themes: commodities, intellectual property rights, and health services. The main aims of the analysis are as follows: to identify how trade issues are associated with the transnationalization of health risks and possible benefits; to identify key areas of research; and to suggest policy-relevant advice and interventions on trade and health issues. The next wave of international trade law will need to take more account of global public health issues. However, to become more engaged in global trade debates, the public health community must gain an understanding of the health effects of global trade agreements. It must also ensure that its own facts are correct, so that public health is not blindly used for political ends, such as justifying unwarranted economic protectionism. "Healthy trade" policies, based on firm empirical evidence and designed to improve health status, are an important step towards reaching a more sustainable form of trade liberalization.

  15. Assessing the Future Directions of Global Knowledge Partnership ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    129124.pdf. Studies. ICT4D and K4D trends : report summary; Global Knowledge Partnership ExCo Meeting, May 26th, Paris. 41221. Papers. GKP Task-Force inputs study : the outlook for using Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) in international development assistance - issues, trends and opportunities.

  16. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  17. Forecasting the Future: Exploring Evidence for Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    California Univ., San Diego, La Jolla. Inst. of Marine Resources.

    This curriculum and classroom activity guide considers evidence gathered in answer to questions concerning global environmental change. It describes methods that biologists, chemists, geologists, meteorologists, and physicists use to gather and interpret their findings. The activities and approaches in this guide were developed to meet the skill…

  18. Future Technoscientific Education: Atheism and Ethics in a Globalizing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Colin D.

    2011-01-01

    This article attempts to assess the claim that the unum necessarium in our time is the general dissemination of scientific knowledge because liberal civilization or the "good society" cannot be had in the presence of traditional religion and "metaphysics." The paper attempts to place this claim in the context of continuing globalization and…

  19. FVS and global Warming: A prospectus for future development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Dennis E. Ferguson; Marcus Warwell

    2008-01-01

    Climate change-global warming and changes in precipitation-will cause changes in tree growth rates, mortality rates, the distribution of tree species, competition, and species interactions. An implicit assumption in FVS is that site quality will remain the same as it was during the time period observations used to calibrate the component models were made and that the...

  20. Collection of Condensate Water: Global Potential and Water Quality Impacts

    KAUST Repository

    Loveless, Kolin Joseph; Farooq, Aamir; Ghaffour, NorEddine

    2012-01-01

    . Technologies that can supply fresh water at a reduced cost are therefore becoming increasingly important and the impact of such technologies can be substantial. This paper considers the collection of condensate water from large air conditioning units as a

  1. Technologies for water resources management: an integrated approach to manage global and regional water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao, W. C., LLNL

    1998-03-23

    Recent droughts in California have highlighted and refocused attention on the problem of providing reliable sources of water to sustain the State`s future economic development. Specific elements of concern include not only the stability and availability of future water supplies in the State, but also how current surface and groundwater storage and distribution systems may be more effectively managed and upgraded, how treated wastewater may be more widely recycled, and how legislative and regulatory processes may be used or modified to address conflicts between advocates of urban growth, industrial, agricultural, and environmental concerns. California is not alone with respect to these issues. They are clearly relevant throughout the West, and are becoming more so in other parts of the US. They have become increasingly important in developing and highly populated nations such as China, India, and Mexico. They are critically important in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, especially as they relate to regional stability and security issues. Indeed, in almost all cases, there are underlying themes of `reliability` and `sustainability` that pertain to the assurance of current and future water supplies, as well as a broader set of `stability` and `security` issues that relate to these assurances--or lack thereof--to the political and economic future of various countries and regions. In this latter sense, and with respect to regions such as China, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, water resource issues may take on a very serious strategic nature, one that is most illustrative and central to the emerging notion of `environmental security.` In this report, we have identified a suite of technical tools that, when developed and integrated together, may prove effective in providing regional governments the ability to manage their water resources. Our goal is to formulate a framework for an Integrated Systems Analysis (ISA): As a strategic planning tool for managing

  2. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  3. Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

    2013-04-01

    The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

  4. Future prospects for renewable energy sources in a global frame

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.

    1992-06-01

    The objective of this study has been to evaluate the possibilities of some new energy sources (solar, wind) in the future world energy supply. We intend to prepare future projections accounting for limitations in infrastructure, time and material inputs. One underlying assumption in the analyses is that new technologies will see an early market introduction in the near future which would continue up to year 2020. During these 30 years, there will still be technological developments leading to a much better manufacturability, mass production, and hence reduced costs. In year 2020, the industrial and economic infrastructure of new energy sources would be mature for a major penetration into the world energy market starting to substitute existing energy sources mainly for environmental reasons. This scenario will be suported by more factual information and data in the following chapters. Each new energy technology will be handled separately. (Quittner)

  5. Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

  6. China, Global Governance and the Future of Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian H. Hearn

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China’s deepening engagement with Latin America has been accompanied by concerns about the Chinese government’s regard for international conventions of economic governance. Critics claim that across Latin America and the Caribbean, Chinese aid and trade are characterised by excessive state intervention. This article argues that, for two reasons, the rationale for these misgivings is dissipating. First, since the onset of the global financial crisis, China has gained influence in multilateral institutions, prompting them toward greater acceptance of public spending in developing countries. Second, recent developments in Cuba show that China is actively encouraging the Western hemisphere’s only communist country to liberalise its economy. China sits at the crossroads of these local and global developments, prompting Cuba toward rapprochement with international norms even as it works to reform them.

  7. Future prospects of the international G-8 Global Partnership Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigor'ev, A.V.; Esaulova, A.V.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Partnership Programme Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was adopt at the Group-8 (G-8) summit on the 27-th of June 2002 for 10 years. At the G-8 summit in May 2011, the decision was made to extent the Global Partnership Programme to beyond 2012 and to expand its reach and geographical coverage. New areas for cooperation were named, such as: nuclear, radiological and biological safety, employment of scientists involved with sensitive industries and assistance to third countries in their compliance with the provisions of United Nations Security Council Resolution No 1540. The parties re-affirmed their commitment to completing a series of priority projects in Russia [ru

  8. Watch: Current knowledge of the terrestrial Global Water Cycle"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harding, R.; Best, M.; Hagemann, S.; Kabat, P.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Warnaars, T.; Wiberg, D.; Weedon, G.P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.

    2011-01-01

    Water-related impacts are among the most important consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Changes in the global water cycle will also impact the carbon and nutrient cycles and vegetation patterns. There is already some evidence of increasing severity of floods and droughts and

  9. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  10. The Global Enery and Water Cycle Experiment Science Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, M. T.

    1997-01-01

    The distribution of water in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth is the most influential factor regulating our environment, not only because water is essential for life but also because through phase transitions it is the main energy source that control clouds and radiation and drives the global circulation of the atmosphere.

  11. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasternak, A.D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  12. The Global Common Good and the Future of Academic Professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genevieve G. Shaker

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this epilogue to the special issue of Higher Learning Research Communications dedicated to higher education, community engagement, and the public good, Shaker addresses the unifying concept presented across the issue: the common good. For Shaker, this special issue responds to UNESCO’s call for educational institutions and educators to rethink education in the contemporary era and focuses on how academic endeavors can, do, and should act in service to a global common good. The essay stresses the academic workforce needs to be reimagined concurrently with rethinking the systems of education that will ensure the world and society “to which we aspire.” Faculty in all their diversity are the central and essential ingredient to a successful global educational response to the challenges of an equitable and just global society will create and disseminate the knowledge society needs. To close, Shaker notes publications such as this bring these conversations into sharper focus to align and connect them so that a rethought approach to higher education might generate discernible results within the relatively short time available.

  13. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasternak, A.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  14. Increasing Awareness of Sustainable Water Management for Future Civil Engineers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilic, Suzana; Karleusa, Barbara; Deluka-Tibljas, Aleksandra

    2010-05-01

    There are more than 1.2 billion people around the world that do not have access to drinking water. While there are plans under the United Nations Millennium Development Goals to halve this number by 2015, there are a number of regions that will be exposed to water scarcity in the coming future. Providing sufficient water for future development is a great challenge for planners and designers of water supply systems. In order to design sustainable water supplies for the future, it is important to learn how people consume water and how water consumption can be reduced. The education of future civil engineers should take into account not only technical aspects of the water supply but also the accompanying social and economical issues, and appreciated the strengths and weaknesses of traditional solutions. The Faculty of Civil Engineering, at the University of Rijeka, has begun incorporating a series of activities that engage undergraduate students and the local community to develop a mutual understanding of the future needs for sustainable management. We present one of the activities, collaboration with the Lancaster Environment Centre at Lancaster University in the UK through the field course Water and environmental management in Mediterranean context. The course, which is designed for the Lancaster University geography students, features a combination of field trips and visits to provide an understanding of the socio-economic and environmental context of water management in two counties (Istra and Primorsko-Goranska). Students from Lancaster visit the Croatian water authority and a regional water company, where they learn about current management practices and problems in managing water supplies and demand through the year. They make their own observations of current management practices in the field and learn about water consumption from the end users. One day field visit to a village in the area that is still not connected to the main water supply system is

  15. Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

    2017-12-01

    Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

  16. Collection of Condensate Water: Global Potential and Water Quality Impacts

    KAUST Repository

    Loveless, Kolin Joseph

    2012-12-28

    Water is a valuable resource throughout the world, especially in hot, dry climates and regions experiencing significant population growth. Supplies of fresh water are complicated by the economic and political conditions in many of these regions. Technologies that can supply fresh water at a reduced cost are therefore becoming increasingly important and the impact of such technologies can be substantial. This paper considers the collection of condensate water from large air conditioning units as a possible method to alleviate water scarcity issues. Using the results of a climate model that tested data collected from 2000 to 2010, we have identified areas in the world with the greatest collection potential. We gave special consideration to areas with known water scarcities, including the coastal regions of the Arabian Peninsula, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. We found that the quality of the collected water is an important criterion in determining the potential uses for this water. Condensate water samples were collected from a few locations in Saudi Arabia and detailed characterizations were conducted to determine the quality of this water. We found that the quality of condensate water collected from various locations and types of air conditioners was very high with conductivities reaching as low as 18 μS/cm and turbidities of 0. 041 NTU. The quality of the collected condensate was close to that of distilled water and, with low-cost polishing treatments, such as ion exchange resins and electrochemical processes, the condensate quality could easily reach that of potable water. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  17. Towards a global environmental sociology? Legacies, trends and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lidskog, R.; Mol, A.P.J.; Oosterveer, P.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    A current debate on environmental sociology involves how the subdiscipline should conceptualise and investigate the environment and whether it should be prescriptive and deliver policy recommendations. Taking this debate as a point of departure this article discusses the current and future role of

  18. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  19. Energy and ethics. Ethical aspects of a future global power generation; Energie und Ethik. Ethische Aspekte zukuenftiger globaler Stromerzeugung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gethmann, C.F. [Duisburg-Essen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Philosophie; Europaeische Akademie Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH, Essen (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The article deals with ethical questions regarding a future global energy supply by considering the normative aspects of economic efficiency, long-term liabilities, environmental sustainability, social acceptability and distributive equity. Regarding the ethical issues dealt with in the debate on the global energy supply, in particular two postulates arise: Both an improvement in knowledge and an improvement in the categories and procedures of ethical reflection are required. (orig.)

  20. 47. Essen conference on water and waste management. Is our water management fit for the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinnekamp, J.

    2014-01-01

    These congress proceedings cover the following larger topics: Challenges facing the German water economy; value retention and financing of water infrastructure; water quality; Sewage Sludge Ordinance / phosphorus recycling; urban mining; new technologies; wastewater disposal structures of the future; flood management; drinking water (quality issues, clarification methods, maintenance); trace substances; wastewater and energy; and fracking. One lecture has been abstracted individually for this database. [de

  1. Traditional medicines and globalization: current and future perspectives in ethnopharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eLeonti

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The ethnopharmacological approach towards the understanding and appraisal of traditional and herbal medicines is characterized by the inclusions of the social as well as the natural sciences. Anthropological field-observations describing the local use of nature-derived medicines are the basis for ethnopharmacological enquiries. The multidisciplinary scientific validation of indigenous drugs is of relevance to modern societies at large and helps to sustain local health care practices. Especially with respect to therapies related to ageing related, chronic and infectious diseases traditional medicines offer promising alternatives to biomedicine. Bioassays applied in ethnopharmacology represent the molecular characteristics and complexities of the disease or symptoms for which an indigenous drug is used in traditional medicine to variable depth and extent. One-dimensional in vitro approaches rarely cope with the complexity of human diseases and ignore the concept of polypharmacological synergies. The recent focus on holistic approaches and systems biology in medicinal plant research represents the trend towards the description and the understanding of complex multi-parameter systems.Ethnopharmacopoeias are non-static cultural constructs shaped by belief and knowledge systems. Intensified globalization and economic liberalism currently accelerates the interchange between local and global pharmacopoeias via international trade, television, the World Wide Web and print media. The increased infiltration of newly generated biomedical knowledge and introduction of foreign medicines into local pharmacopoeias leads to syncretic developments and generates a feedback loop. While modern and post-modern cultures and knowledge systems adapt and transform the global impact, they become more relevant for ethnopharmacology. Moreover, what is traditional, alternative or complementary medicine depends on the adopted historic-cultural perspective.

  2. Traditional medicines and globalization: current and future perspectives in ethnopharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonti, Marco; Casu, Laura

    2013-01-01

    The ethnopharmacological approach toward the understanding and appraisal of traditional and herbal medicines is characterized by the inclusions of the social as well as the natural sciences. Anthropological field-observations describing the local use of nature-derived medicines are the basis for ethnopharmacological enquiries. The multidisciplinary scientific validation of indigenous drugs is of relevance to modern societies at large and helps to sustain local health care practices. Especially with respect to therapies related to aging related, chronic and infectious diseases traditional medicines offer promising alternatives to biomedicine. Bioassays applied in ethnopharmacology represent the molecular characteristics and complexities of the disease or symptoms for which an indigenous drug is used in "traditional" medicine to variable depth and extent. One-dimensional in vitro approaches rarely cope with the complexity of human diseases and ignore the concept of polypharmacological synergies. The recent focus on holistic approaches and systems biology in medicinal plant research represents the trend toward the description and the understanding of complex multi-parameter systems. Ethnopharmacopoeias are non-static cultural constructs shaped by belief and knowledge systems. Intensified globalization and economic liberalism currently accelerates the interchange between local and global pharmacopoeias via international trade, television, the World Wide Web and print media. The increased infiltration of newly generated biomedical knowledge and introduction of "foreign" medicines into local pharmacopoeias leads to syncretic developments and generates a feedback loop. While modern and post-modern cultures and knowledge systems adapt and transform the global impact, they become more relevant for ethnopharmacology. Moreover, what is traditional, alternative or complementary medicine depends on the adopted historic-cultural perspective.

  3. After Globalization Future Security in a Technology Rich World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin,T J

    2001-08-17

    Over the course of the year 2000, five workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats to international security in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. The participants included US national leaders and experts from the Department of Energy National Laboratories; the Department of Defense: Army, Navy, Air Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; the Department of State, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. The threats ranged from local/regional to global, from intentional to unintended to natural, from merely economic to massively destructive, and from individual and group to state actions. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses to the threats, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be executed or countered. At the concluding review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and national responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain or uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This paper summarizes the consenses and

  4. Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

  5. Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gain, Animesh K.; Giupponi, Carlo; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-12-01

    Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience ‘low water security’ over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated—physical and socio-economic—approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term ‘security’ is conceptualized as a function of ‘availability’, ‘accessibility to services’, ‘safety and quality’, and ‘management’. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

  6. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  7. Global change and water resources in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. C.; Hirsch, R. M.

    2010-03-01

    in the first half of the 20th century. Decreased summer runoff affects water supply for agriculture, domestic water supply, cooling needs for thermoelectric power generation, and ecosystem needs. In addition to the reduced volume of streamflow during warm summer months, less water results in elevated stream temperature, which also has significant effects on cooling of power generating facilities and on aquatic ecosystem needs. We are now required to include fish and other aquatic species in negotiation over how much water to leave in the river, rather than, as in the past, how much water we could remove from a river. Additionally, we must pay attention to the quality of that water, including its temperature. This is driven in the US by the Endangered Species Act and the Clean Water Act. Furthermore, we must now better understand and manage the whole hydrograph and the influence of hydrologic variability on aquatic ecosystems. Man has trimmed the tails off the probability distribution of flows. We need to understand how to put the tails back on but can’t do that without improved understanding of aquatic ecosystems. Sea level rise presents challenges for fresh water extraction from coastal aquifers as they are compromised by increased saline intrusion. A related problem faces users of ‘run-of-the-river’ water-supply intakes that are threatened by a salt front that migrates further upstream because of higher sea level. We face significant challenges with water infrastructure. The U.S. has among the highest quality drinking water in the world piped to our homes. However, our water and sewage treatment plants and water and sewer pipelines have not had adequate maintenance or investment for decades. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are up to 3.5M illnesses per year from recreational contact with sewage from sanitary sewage overflows. Infrastructure investment needs have been put at 5 trillion nationally. Global change and water resources

  8. Hotspot identification of trans-boundary water conflict due to anthropogenic water use and climate change in the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueki, A.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    A significant fraction of world population is projected to experience increased water stress in response to the combined effects of population growth and climate change. Some previous studies have suggested that high water stress had significant causality for civil war, and militarized conflict and trans-boundary water conflict in international river basin. On the other hand, some previous empirical analyses have found that institutionalization (e.g., specific provisions in trans-boundary freshwater treaties) in international river basin was associated with a lower risk of water conflicts during water scarcity. The purpose of this study is to identify these water conflict "hotspots", integrating institutional and governance mechanisms of adaptations to impact of water stress. These adaptations is classified to 4 abilities and skills and then used to calculate the adaptive capacity. The adaptive capacity includes the way to manage water conflict effectively, plan to deal with uncertainty in the future, alter current situation and create institutionalization with common perspective throughout the whole activities. This study identifies water conflict "hotspots" by combining high water stress areas projected by a global water resource model and a lower degree of the adaptive capacity. This study finds that 9 water conflict "hotspots" in Africa, Asia and South America.

  9. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  10. How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

  11. Future development of global regulations of Chinese herbal products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Tai-Ping; Deal, Greer; Koo, Hoi-Lun; Rees, Daryl; Sun, He; Chen, Shaw; Dou, Jin-Hui; Makarov, Valery G; Pozharitskaya, Olga N; Shikov, Alexander N; Kim, Yeong Shik; Huang, Yi-Tsau; Chang, Yuan Shiun; Jia, William; Dias, Alberto; Wong, Vivian Chi-Woon; Chan, Kelvin

    2012-04-10

    GP-TCM is the first EU-funded Coordination Action consortium dedicated to traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) research. One of the key deliverables of the Work Package 7 in GP-TCM was to investigate information of the existing requirements for registration of TCM products listed by global regulatory bodies. The paper aims to collate data and draw comparison of these regulations. Case studies are also presented to illustrate the problems involved in registering TCM products in different regions worldwide. A collaborative network task force was established during the early stage of the GP-TCM project and operated through exchanges, teleconferences and focused discussions at annual meetings. The task force involved coordinators, academics who are actively involved with R&D of Chinese herbal medicines, experts on monographic standards of Chinese materia medica, representatives from regulatory agencies, experts from industries in marketing Chinese medicines/herbal medicines and natural products. The co-ordinators took turns to chair teleconferences, led discussions on specific issues at AGM discussion sessions, at joint workshops with other work-packages such as WP1 (quality issues), WP3 (toxicology issues) and WP6 (clinical trial issues). Collectively the authors were responsible for collating discussion outcomes and updating written information. A global overview of regulations on herbal registration has been compiled during the three years of the consortium. The regulatory requirements for registration of herbal products in the EU and China were compared, and this is extended to other regions/countries: Africa, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. A wide variation of the regulations for the categories of herbal products exists: food (functional food, novel foods, dietary food for special medical purpose, foods for particular nutritional use, food supplement); cosmetic, traditional herbal medicine products; herbal

  12. Managing Water-Food-Energy Futures in the Canadian Prairies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Nazemi, A.; Elshorbagy, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    The water-food-energy nexus is a convenient phrase to highlight competing societal uses for water and the need for cross-sectoral policy integration, but this can lead to oversimplification of the multiple dimensions of water (and energy) management. In practice, water managers must balance (and prioritize) demands for water for many uses, including environmental flows, and reservoir operation often involves managing conflicting demands, for example to maximize retention for supply, reduce storage to facilitate flood control, and constrain water levels and releases for habitat protection. Agriculture and water quality are also inextricably linked: irrigated agriculture requires appropriate water quality for product quality and certification, but agriculture can be a major source of nutrient pollution, with impacts on human and ecosystem health, drinking water treatment and amenity. And energy-water interactions include energy production (hydropower and cooling water for thermal power generation) and energy consumption (e.g. for pumping and water and wastewater treatment). These dependencies are illustrated for the Canadian prairies, and a risk-based approach to the management of climate change is presented. Trade-offs between economic benefits of hydropower and irrigation are illustrated for alternative climate futures, including implications for freshwater habitats. The results illustrate that inter-sector interactions vary as a function of climate and its variability, and that there is a need for policy to manage inter-sector allocations as a function of economic risk.

  13. Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio J. Castro

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Globally, environmental and social change in water-scarce regions challenge the sustainability of social-ecological systems. WaterSES, a sponsored working group within the Program for Ecosystem Change and Society, explores and compares the social-ecological dynamics related to water scarcity across placed-based international research sites with contrasting local and regional water needs and governance, including research sites in Spain and Sweden in Europe, South Africa, China, and Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Texas in the USA. This paper aims to provide a commentary on insights into conducting future solutions-oriented research on water scarcity based on the understanding of the social-ecological dynamics of water scarce regions.

  14. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  15. Nanomedicine: Past, present and future - A global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Esther H; Harford, Joe B; Eaton, Michael A W; Boisseau, Patrick M; Dube, Admire; Hayeshi, Rose; Swai, Hulda; Lee, Dong Soo

    2015-12-18

    Nanomedicine is an emerging and rapidly evolving field and includes the use of nanoparticles for diagnosis and therapy of a variety of diseases, as well as in regenerative medicine. In this mini-review, leaders in the field from around the globe provide a personal perspective on the development of nanomedicine. The focus lies on the translation from research to development and the innovation supply chain, as well as the current status of nanomedicine in industry. The role of academic professional societies and the importance of government funding are discussed. Nanomedicine to combat infectious diseases of poverty is highlighted along with other pertinent examples of recent breakthroughs in nanomedicine. Taken together, this review provides a unique and global perspective on the emerging field of nanomedicine. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. After globalization future security in a technology rich world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilmartin, T J

    2000-02-12

    Over the course of the year 2000, five one-day workshops were conducted by the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on threats that might come against the US and its allies in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe due to the global availability of advanced technology. These workshops focused on threats that are enabled by nuclear, missile, and space technology; military technology; information technology; bio technology; and geo systems technology. In December, an Integration Workshop and Senior Review before national leaders and experts were held. The participants and reviewers were invited from the DOE National Laboratories, the DOD Services, OSD, DTRA, and DARPA, the DOS, NASA, Congressional technical staff, the intelligence community, universities and university study centers, think tanks, consultants on national security issues, and private industry. For each workshop the process of analysis involved identification and prioritization of the participants' perceived most severe threat scenarios (worst nightmares), discussion of the technologies which enabled those threats, and ranking of the technologies' threat potentials. We were not concerned in this exercise with defining responses, although our assessment of each threat's severity included consideration of the ease or difficulty with which it might be countered. At the concluding Integration Workshop and Senior Panel Review, we brought the various workshops' participants together, added senior participant/reviewers with broad experience and responsibility, and discussed the workshop findings to determine what is most certain, and uncertain, and what might be needed to resolve our uncertainties. This document reports the consensus and important variations of both the reviewers and the participants. In all, 45 threats over a wide range of lethality and probability of occurrence were identified. Over 60 enabling technologies were also discussed. These are

  17. Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Morin

    Full Text Available Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems.

  18. Safeguarding water availability for food and ecosystems under global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pastor, Amandine V.

    2017-01-01

    In a context of future population increase and intensification of water cycle by climate change, water demand for irrigation is projected to double. However, freshwater resources have been degraded the last decades especially in rivers via fragmentation, dam contraction and pollution. Flow

  19. Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Jolly, Ian; Sophocleous, Marios; Zhang, Lu

    2007-03-01

    Past land use changes have greatly impacted global water resources, with often opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Increases in rain-fed cropland (460%) and pastureland (560%) during the past 300 years from forest and grasslands decreased evapotranspiration and increased recharge (two orders of magnitude) and streamflow (one order of magnitude). However, increased water quantity degraded water quality by mobilization of salts, salinization caused by shallow water tables, and fertilizer leaching into underlying aquifers that discharge to streams. Since the 1950s, irrigated agriculture has expanded globally by 174%, accounting for ˜90% of global freshwater consumption. Irrigation based on surface water reduced streamflow and raised water tables resulting in waterlogging in many areas (China, India, and United States). Marked increases in groundwater-fed irrigation in the last few decades in these areas has lowered water tables (≤1 m/yr) and reduced streamflow. Degradation of water quality in irrigated areas has resulted from processes similar to those in rain-fed agriculture: salt mobilization, salinization in waterlogged areas, and fertilizer leaching. Strategies for remediating water resource problems related to agriculture often have opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Long time lags (decades to centuries) between land use changes and system response (e.g., recharge, streamflow, and water quality), particularly in semiarid regions, mean that the full impact of land use changes has not been realized in many areas and remediation to reverse impacts will also take a long time. Future land use changes should consider potential impacts on water resources, particularly trade-offs between water, salt, and nutrient balances, to develop sustainable water resources to meet human and ecosystem needs.

  20. How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

    2017-04-01

    Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

  1. Bridges to Global Citizenship: Ecologically Sustainable Futures Utilising Children's Literature in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradbery, Debbie

    2013-01-01

    Developing an understanding of the importance of a sustainable future is vital in helping children to become "global citizens". Global citizens are those willing to take responsibility for their own actions, respect and value diversity and see themselves as contributors to a more peaceful and sustainable world. Children's…

  2. New science for global sustainability? The institutionalisation of knowledge co-production in Future Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hel, S.C.

    2016-01-01

    In the context of complex and unprecedented issues of global change, calls for new modes of knowledge production that are better equipped to address urgent challenges of global sustainability are increasingly frequent. This paper presents a case study of the new major research programme “Future

  3. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  4. Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Müller Schmied

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean. Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.

  5. Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

    2013-04-01

    Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled

  6. Developing Strategies for Islamic Banks to Face the Future Challenges of Financial Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Al Ajlouni, Ahmed

    2004-01-01

    Developing Strategies for Islamic Banks to Face the Future Challenges of Financial Globalization Ahmed Al-Ajlouni Abstract This study aims at forming strategic response to assess the ability of Islamic banks in benefiting from the opportunities that may be provided by financial globalization and limits its threats, through assessing the capability of Islamic banks to meet the requirements and challenges of financial globalization, then suggests the suitable strategies that may be ...

  7. National water resource management as a global problem: The example of Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshorbagy, A. A.; Abdelkader, A. A.; Tuninetti, M.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.; Fahmy, H.

    2017-12-01

    The engineering redistribution of water remains limited in its spatial scope, when compared with the socioeconomic redistribution of water in its virtual form. Virtual water (VW) embedded in products has its own human-induced cycle by moving across the globe. There is a significant body of literature on global VW trade networks (VWTN), with most studies focused on the network structure and the variables controlling its behavior. It was shown that the importing nations will play an important role in the evolution of the network dynamics. The increased connectivity of the global network highlights the risk of systemic disruptions and the vulnerability of the global food, especially when exporting countries change to non-exporting ones. The existing models of VWTN characterize the properties of the network, along with its nodes and links. Acknowledging its contribution to understand the global redistribution of virtual water, hardly can this approach attract potential users to adopt it. The VW trade (VWT) modeling needs to be repositioned to allow resource managers and policy makers at various scales to benefit from it and link global VW dynamics to their local decisions. The aim of this research is to introduce a new modeling approach for the VWT where detailed national scale water management is nested within the coarser global VWTN. The case study of Egypt, the world biggest importer of wheat, is considered here because its population growth and limitations of water and arable land position it as a significant node in the global network. A set of potential scenarios of Egypt's future, driven by population growth, development plans, consumption patterns, technology change, and water availability are developed. The annual national food and water balance in every scenario is calculated to estimate the potential for VW export and import of Egypt. The results indicate that Egypt's demand for food might cause unexpectedly higher demands on other countries' water resources

  8. Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2017-09-30

    The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

  9. Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahai, D.

    2010-12-01

    Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

  10. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  11. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  12. Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

    2012-02-07

    Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

  13. Agriculture's portfolio for an uncertain future: Preparing for global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drabenstott, M.

    1992-01-01

    Farmers and foresters will adapt as the climate changes, but the attendant social costs call for policy steps now to encourage even more adaptation. The challenge to policymakers can be viewed as building a balanced portfolio of climate change assets and then managing it effectively. Put simply, investing in a diverse portfolio of agricultural assets must be viewed as prudent policy. The climate seems likely to change; how much and how soon, is not known. If the climate changes, there will be social costs to the nation, and the costs could be large. A prudent way to hedge the risk of those costs is to hold a diverse portfolio of assets and assure the flexibility to use them. Such a portfolio offers the best change for agriculture to adapt successfully to whatever climate unfolds. And even if the climate stays the same, investing in such a flexible portfolio will surely pay dividends in the stream of other changes bound to come. The present rich allocation of resources must be improved if they will be effective adapting agents in the future

  14. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  15. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-01-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered

  16. Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2016-04-01

    A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990-1999) and future (2059-2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam's spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake's surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake's surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A

  17. Physics for future Presidents - nuclear power, terrorism, global warming; La physique expliquee a notre futur president - Nucleaire, terrorisme, rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, Richard A.

    2011-04-26

    This book explains the science behind the concerns that our nation faces in the immediate future. It outlines the tools of terrorists, the dangers of nuclear power, and the reality of global warming. As citizens who will elect future presidents of the most powerful and influential countries in the world, we need to know-truly understand if Iran's nascent nuclear capability is a genuine threat to the West, if biochemical weapons are likely to be developed by terrorists, if there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels that should be nurtured and supported by the government, if nuclear power should be encouraged, and if global warming is actually happening. This book is written in everyday, nontechnical language on the science behind the concerns that our nations faces in the immediate future. This book is translated from 'Physics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines', published by W. W. Norton and Company in August 2008. Contents: 1 - Terrorism: Nine-eleven, Terrorist nukes, The next terrorist attack, Biological terrorism; 2 - Energy: Key energy surprises, Solar Power, The end of oil; 3 - Nukes: Radioactivity and death, Radioactive decay, Nuclear weapons, Nuclear madness, Nuclear power, Nuclear waste, Controlled fusion; 4 - Space: Space and satellites, Gravity applications, Humans in space, Spying with invisible light; 5 - Global Warming: A brief history of climate, The greenhouse effect, A very likely cause, Evidence, Non-solutions, The fruit on the ground, New technologies

  18. Passive safety features in current and future water cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-11-01

    Better understanding of the passive safety systems and components in current and future water-cooled reactors may enhance the safety of present reactors, to the extend passive features are backfitted. This better understanding should also improve the safety of future reactors, which can incorporate more of these features. Passive safety systems and components may help to prevent accidents, core damage, or release radionuclides to the environment. The Technical Committee Meeting which was hosted by the USSR State Committee for Utilization of Nuclear Energy was attended by about 80 experts from 16 IAEA Member States and the NEA-OECD. A total of 21 papers were presented during the meeting. The objective of the meeting was to review and discuss passive safety systems and features of current and future water cooled reactor designs and to exchange information in this area of activity. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 21 papers published in this proceedings. Refs, figs and tabs

  19. Isotope tracers in global water and climate studies of the past and present

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.W.D.; Birks, S.J.; Gibson, J.J.

    2002-01-01

    To date the global distribution of isotopes in modern precipitation has been characterized almost exclusively from the IAEA/WMO GNIP database, although patchiness of GNIP station records in both time and space has limited the potential of isotope hydrology and climate applications in some areas. Herein, we discuss the prospect of utilizing GCMs for simulating global isotope distributions as a supplementary tool for modern and paleoclimate isotope studies to bridge this gap. Such models currently generate reliable zonal isotope fields, and it is anticipated that future enhancements in finescale resolution of GCMs, and incorporation of land-surface feedbacks and topography will allow for future development of a global reanalysis data set ground-truthed by GNIP. Compilation of time-slice maps of past isotope distribution in precipitation from archival records of meteoric waters also offers significant potential to ground-truth paleoclimate simulations extending back tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (author)

  20. The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

  1. Determining water reservoir characteristics with global elevation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bemmelen, C. W T; Mann, M.; de Ridder, M.P.; Rutten, M.M.; van de Giesen, N.C.

    2016-01-01

    Quantification of human impact on water, sediment, and nutrient fluxes at the global scale demands characterization of reservoirs with an accuracy that is presently unavailable. This letter presents a new method, based on virtual dam placement, to make accurate estimations of area-volume

  2. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  3. The future for electrocoagulation as a localised water treatment technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Peter K; Barton, Geoffrey W; Mitchell, Cynthia A

    2005-04-01

    Electrocoagulation is an electrochemical method of treating polluted water whereby sacrificial anodes corrode to release active coagulant precursors (usually aluminium or iron cations) into solution. Accompanying electrolytic reactions evolve gas (usually as hydrogen bubbles) at the cathode. Electrocoagulation has a long history as a water treatment technology having been employed to remove a wide range of pollutants. However electrocoagulation has never become accepted as a 'mainstream' water treatment technology. The lack of a systematic approach to electrocoagulation reactor design/operation and the issue of electrode reliability (particularly passivation of the electrodes over time) have limited its implementation. However recent technical improvements combined with a growing need for small-scale decentralised water treatment facilities have led to a re-evaluation of electrocoagulation. Starting with a review of electrocoagulation reactor design/operation, this article examines and identifies a conceptual framework for electrocoagulation that focuses on the interactions between electrochemistry, coagulation and flotation. In addition detailed experimental data are provided from a batch reactor system removing suspended solids together with a mathematical analysis based on the 'white water' model for the dissolved air flotation process. Current density is identified as the key operational parameter influencing which pollutant removal mechanism dominates. The conclusion is drawn that electrocoagulation has a future as a decentralised water treatment technology. A conceptual framework is presented for future research directed towards a more mechanistic understanding of the process.

  4. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  5. Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

    2017-12-01

    Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

  6. A visão brasileira da futura ordem global Brazil's vision of the future global order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Flemes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo visa desdobrar a concepção brasileira da futura ordem global localizada entre os polos extremos de um concerto de grandes potências e de uma ordem mundial multirregional. O autor demonstra como os formuladores de política externa brasileira contribuem para um tipo de ordem global que oferece espaço de manobra para a potência emergente. As opções de política externa do Brasil são limitadas, diante do superior poder material (hard power das grandes potências estabelecidas. A estratégia de soft balancing do Brasil envolve estratégias institucionais, como a formação de coalizões diplomáticas limitadas ou alianças para restringir o poder das grandes potências estabelecidas. O Brasil tem estado entre os mais poderosos condutores de mudança incremental na diplomacia mundial e é beneficiado em grande parte pelas conectadas mudanças de poder global. Em uma ordem global moldada por grandes potências por meio de arranjos e instituições internacionais, esses jogadores que efetivamente operam em ambos como inovadores, construtores de coalizões e porta-vozes, ao mesmo tempo em que preservam grande parcela de soberania e autonomia, têm o potencial de influenciar substancialmente os resultados da futura política global.This article aims to unfold the Brazilian conception of the future global order located between the extreme poles of a concert of great powers and a multiregional world order. The author demonstrates how Brazilian foreign policy makers contribute to the kind of global order, which offers most room to manoeuvre to the rising power. The foreign policy options of Brazil are limited in view of the superior hard power of the established great powers. Brazil's soft balancing strategy involves institutional strategies such as the formation of limited diplomatic coalitions or ententes to constrain the power of the established great powers. Brazil has been amongst the most powerful drivers of incremental change in

  7. Navigating Troubled Waters. An analysis of how urban water regimes in the global South reproduce inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Nastar, Maryam

    2014-01-01

    This research is an attempt to conceptualize the underlying forces behind persistent and ubiquitous problems of inequality in access to water in cities of the global south. Inequality in water access is hypothesized to result from urban water regimes that tend to prioritize the right to water access or to provide preferential terms of access for some groups in society, while marginalizing others. By employing a critical realist approach, different theories in relation to inequality are app...

  8. Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Chao, B.; Wu, Y.-H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies suggest the increasing contribution of groundwater depletion to global sea-level rise. Groundwater depletion has more than doubled during the last decades, primarily due to increase in water demand, while the increase in water impoundments behind dams has been tapering off since

  9. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  10. Perceptions of the Year 2000: Then, Now, and In The Future. Developing the Critical Analysis Skills and Time Reference Perspective of Proactive Action Students in Environmental and Global Education Curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Richard Oakes

    An overview of future global environmental concerns and a strategy for teaching action skills to students are presented. Information from "The Global 2000 Report" and quotes from 11 different people provide a variety of perspectives on future problems and solutions concerning world food and hunger, economic growth, population, water,…

  11. Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tamea

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986–2010. The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible. The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010. In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986, a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km, with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

  12. Local and global perspectives on the virtual water trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamea, S.; Allamano, P.; Carr, J. A.; Claps, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

    2013-03-01

    Recent studies on fluxes of virtual water are showing how the global food and goods trade interconnects the water resources of different and distant countries, conditioning the local water balances. This paper presents and discusses the assessment of virtual water fluxes between a single country and its network of trading partners, delineating a country's virtual water budget in space and time (years 1986-2010). The fluxes between the country under study and its importing/exporting partners are visualized with a geographical representation shaping the trade network as a virtual river/delta. Time variations of exchanged fluxes are quantified to show possible trends in the virtual water balance, while characterizing the time evolution of the trade network and its composition in terms of product categories (plant-based, animal-based, luxury food, and non-edible). The average distance traveled by virtual water to arrive to the place of consumption is also introduced as a new measure for the analysis of globalization of the virtual water trade. Using Italy as an example, we find that food trade has a steadily growing importance compared to domestic production, with a major component represented by plant-based products, and luxury products taking an increasingly larger share (26% in 2010). In 2010 Italy had an average net import of 55 km3 of virtual water (38 km3 in 1986), a value which poses the country among the top net importers in the world. On average each cubic meter of virtual water travels nearly 4000 km before entering Italy, while export goes to relatively closer countries (average distance: 2600 km), with increasing trends in time which are almost unique among the world countries. Analyses proposed for Italy are replicated for 10 other world countries, triggering similar investigations on different socio-economic actualities.

  13. Bromine and water quality – Selected aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winid, Bogumiła

    2015-01-01

    Bromine is a microelement present in waters, both in inorganic and in a wide range of organic compounds, though at lower concentrations. Typically, concentrations of organobromine compounds in waters are several orders of magnitude lower than of bromides. Two issues are addressed in the paper: the influence of bromides on the quality of treated waters and organobromines as contaminants of natural waters. Bromide presence in treated water gives rise to formation of potentially mutagenic disinfection by-products (DBPs). Registered amounts of DBPs in potable waters, exceeding the admissible levels, and the published data on DBPs in waters used for leisure and recreation activities, clearly indicate the health risk. Major sources are identified and registered concentrations of EDB, DBCB, methyl bromide, bromacil and PBDEs in the aquatic environment are summarized. The effects of bromide on DBPs formation and numerous examples of organobromine contamination of the aquatic environment indicate that the presence of bromides and organobromine compounds in the aquatic environment will have to be given more consideration, for several reasons. Firstly, larger amounts of bromide are present in saline and contaminated waters and the proportion of such waters being handled is increasing. Similarly, the processes of water purification, treatment and disinfection are now playing a major role. Secondly, emissions from manufacturing of bromine-containing materials growing, due to, inter alia, intensive development of the electronic industry and the plastic manufacturing sector. Thirdly, bromine compounds are also used as medicine ingredients. There is now a growing awareness of the presence of pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. Fourth, low bromide concentrations in hypergene zones may be modified in the future, partly because of the climate changes, which may give rise to difficulties with water treatment systems. Water quality standards having relevance to water used for

  14. Dye-Sensitized Photocatalytic Water Splitting and Sacrificial Hydrogen Generation: Current Status and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Chowdhury

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Today, global warming and green energy are important topics of discussion for every intellectual gathering all over the world. The only sustainable solution to these problems is the use of solar energy and storing it as hydrogen fuel. Photocatalytic and photo-electrochemical water splitting and sacrificial hydrogen generation show a promise for future energy generation from renewable water and sunlight. This article mainly reviews the current research progress on photocatalytic and photo-electrochemical systems focusing on dye-sensitized overall water splitting and sacrificial hydrogen generation. An overview of significant parameters including dyes, sacrificial agents, modified photocatalysts and co-catalysts are provided. Also, the significance of statistical analysis as an effective tool for a systematic investigation of the effects of different factors and their interactions are explained. Finally, different photocatalytic reactor configurations that are currently in use for water splitting application in laboratory and large scale are discussed.

  15. Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

    2007-12-01

    Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

  16. Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

  17. COMMENTARY: GLOBALIZATION, HEALTH SECTOR REFORM, AND THE HUMAN RIGHT TO HEALTH: IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE HEALTH POLICY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuftan, Claudio

    2015-01-01

    The author here distills his long-time personal experience with the deleterious effects of globalization on health and on the health sector reforms embarked on in many of the more than 50 countries where he has worked in the last 25 years. He highlights the role that the "human right to health" framework can and should play in countering globalization's negative effects on health and in shaping future health policy. This is a testimonial article.

  18. OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DUŢĂ ALEXANDRU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The hypothesis of the paper is that the future of the European Union cannot be understood outside of the global context. Here are the main strategic options for the 21st century - Friedman, Attali, Fukuyama and Huntigton. Without denying any possible conflicts, a global war involving the nucleus of the great civilizations is highly unlikely. Our view is that the United States of Europe is a strategically achievable target, bringing some arguments in favor of the advanced hypothesis.

  19. Spacebased Observation of Water Balance Over Global Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.; Xie, X.

    2008-12-01

    We demonstrated that ocean surface fresh water flux less the water discharge into the ocean from river and ice melt balances the mass loss in the ocean both in magnitude and in the phase of annual variation. The surface water flux was computed from the divergence of the water transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere. The atmospheric water transport is estimated from the precipitable water measured by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the surface wind vector by QuikSCAT, and the NOAA cloud drift wind through a statistical model. The transport has been extensively validated using global radiosonde and data and operational numerical weather prediction results. Its divergence has been shown to agree with the difference between evaporation estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer data and the precipitation measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission over the global tropical and subtropical oceans both in magnitude and geographical distribution for temporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interannual. The water loss rate in the ocean is estimated by two methods, one is from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the other is by subtracting the climatological steric change from the sea level change measured by radar altimeter on Jason. Only climatological river discharge and ice melt from in situ measurements are available and the lack of temporal variation may contribute to discrepancies in the balance. We have successfully used the spacebased surface fluxes to estimate to climatological mean heat transport in the Atlantic ocean and is attempting to estimate the meridional fresh water (or salt) transport from the surface flux. The approximate closure of the water balance gives a powerful indirect validation of the spacebased products.

  20. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

  1. Global water risks and national security: Building resilience (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    The UN defines water security as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. This definition highlights complex and interconnected challenges and underscores the centrality of water for environmental services and human aactivities. Global risks are expressed at the national level. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2010 National Security Strategy identify climate change as likely to trigger outcomes that will threaten U.S. security including how freshwater resources can become a security issue. Impacts will be felt on the National Security interest through water, food and energy security, and critical infrastructure. This recognition focuses the need to consider the rates of change in climate extremes, in the context of more traditional political, economic, and social indicators that inform security analyses. There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-state conflict. It is generally recognized that water resources as a security issue to date exists mainly at the substate level and has not led to physical conflict between nation states. In conflict and disaster zones, threats to water security increase through inequitable and difficult access to water supply and related services, which may aggravate existing social fragility, tensions, violence, and conflict. This paper will (1) Outline the dimensions of water security and its links to national security (2) Analyze water footprints and management risks for key basins in the US and around the world, (3) map the link between global water security and national concerns, drawing lessons from the drought of 2012 and elsewhere

  2. Improved but unsustainable: accounting for sachet water in post-2015 goals for global safe water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, Justin

    2012-12-01

    The advent and rapid spread of sachet drinking water in West Africa presents a new challenge for providing sustainable access to global safe water. Sachet water has expanded drinking water access and is often of sufficient quality to serve as an improved water source for Millennium Development Goals (MDG) monitoring purposes, yet sachets are an unsustainable water delivery vehicle due to their overwhelming plastic waste burden. Monitoring of primary drinking water sources in West Africa generally ignores sachet water, despite its growing ubiquity. Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is unlikely to meet the MDG Target for drinking water provision, and post-2015 monitoring activities may depend upon rapid adaptability to local drinking water trends. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Food, Paper, Wood, or Energy? Global Trends and Future Swedish Forest Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Westholm

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a futures study of international forest trends. The study, produced as part of the Swedish Future Forest program, focuses on global changes of importance for future Swedish forest use. It is based on previous international research, policy documents, and 24 interviews with selected key experts and/or actors related to the forest sector, and its findings will provide a basis for future research priorities. The forest sector, here defined as the economic, social, and cultural contributions to life and human welfare derived from forest and forest-based activities, faces major change. Four areas stand out as particularly important: changing energy systems, emerging international climate policies, changing governance systems, and shifting global land use systems. We argue that global developments are, and will be, important for future Swedish forest use. The forest sector is in transition and forest-, energy, climate- and global land use issues are likely to become increasingly intertwined. Therefore, the “forest sector” must be disembedded and approached as an open system in interplay with other systems.

  4. Energy-water-environment nexus underpinning future desalination sustainability

    KAUST Repository

    Shahzad, Muhammad Wakil

    2017-03-11

    Energy-water-environment nexus is very important to attain COP21 goal, maintaining environment temperature increase below 2°C, but unfortunately two third share of CO2 emission has already been used and the remaining will be exhausted by 2050. A number of technological developments in power and desalination sectors improved their efficiencies to save energy and carbon emission but still they are operating at 35% and 10% of their thermodynamic limits. Research in desalination processes contributing to fuel World population for their improved living standard and to reduce specific energy consumption and to protect environment. Recently developed highly efficient nature-inspired membranes (aquaporin & graphene) and trend in thermally driven cycle\\'s hybridization could potentially lower then energy requirement for water purification. This paper presents a state of art review on energy, water and environment interconnection and future energy efficient desalination possibilities to save energy and protect environment.

  5. Simulation Games: The Future of Water Resources Education and Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

    2014-12-01

    Scientists rely on models of the water cycle to describe and predict problems of water scarcity in a changing climate, and to suggest adaptation strategies for securing future water needs. Yet these models are too often complicated for managers, the general public and for students to understand. Simpler modelling environments will help with finding solutions by engaging a broader segment of the population. Such environments will enable education at the earliest stages and collective action. I propose that simulation games can be an effective communication platform between scientists and 'non-experts' and that such games will shed light on problems of pollution and overuse of water resources. In the same way as pilots use flight simulators to become proficient at flying aircraft, simulation games—if underpinned by good science—can be used to educate the public, students and managers about how to best manage our water resources. I aim to motivate young scientists to think about using games to advance water education and management.

  6. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2007-02-15

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W{sub r} ) and biome-level water limitation (L{sub TA}), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L{sub TA} is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L{sub TA}, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L{sub TA} tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L{sub TA} suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L{sub TA} would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.

  7. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

    2007-01-01

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W r ) and biome-level water limitation (L TA ), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L TA , ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L TA suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative

  8. Evaluation of global water quality - the potential of a data- and model-driven analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärlund, Ilona; Flörke, Martina; Alcamo, Joseph; Völker, Jeanette; Malsy, Marcus; Kaus, Andrew; Reder, Klara; Büttner, Olaf; Katterfeld, Christiane; Dietrich, Désirée; Borchardt, Dietrich

    2016-04-01

    The ongoing socio-economic development presents a new challenge for water quality worldwide, especially in developing and emerging countries. It is estimated that due to population growth and the extension of water supply networks, the amount of waste water will rise sharply. This can lead to an increased risk of surface water quality degradation, if the wastewater is not sufficiently treated. This development has impacts on ecosystems and human health, as well as food security. The United Nations Member States have adopted targets for sustainable development. They include, inter alia, sustainable protection of water quality and sustainable use of water resources. To achieve these goals, appropriate monitoring strategies and the development of indicators for water quality are required. Within the pre-study for a 'World Water Quality Assessment' (WWQA) led by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), a methodology for assessing water quality, taking into account the above-mentioned objectives has been developed. The novelty of this methodology is the linked model- and data-driven approach. The focus is on parameters reflecting the key water quality issues, such as increased waste water pollution, salinization or eutrophication. The results from the pre-study show, for example, that already about one seventh of all watercourses in Latin America, Africa and Asia show high organic pollution. This is of central importance for inland fisheries and associated food security. In addition, it could be demonstrated that global water quality databases have large gaps. These must be closed in the future in order to obtain an overall picture of global water quality and to target measures more efficiently. The aim of this presentation is to introduce the methodology developed within the WWQA pre-study and to show selected examples of application in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

  9. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  10. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  11. Global environment outlook GEO5. Environment for the future we want

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-05-15

    The main goal of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and knowledge about the global environment; identified potential policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by turning the best available scientific knowledge into information relevant for decision makers. The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three distinct but linked parts. Part 1 - State and trends of the global environment; Part 2 - Policy options from the regions; Part 3 - Opportunities for a global response.

  12. Global environment outlook GEO5. Environment for the future we want

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-05-15

    The main goal of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and knowledge about the global environment; identified potential policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by turning the best available scientific knowledge into information relevant for decision makers. The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three distinct but linked parts. Part 1 - State and trends of the global environment; Part 2 - Policy options from the regions; Part 3 - Opportunities for a global response.

  13. The NPT regime, present and future global security: an American view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Sam.

    1987-01-01

    Although not perfect, an international non-proliferation regime as set out by the IAEA and Non-Proliferation Treaty is in existence. The history of the involvement of the United States in the development of this regime is mentioned as a background to explaining the current approach of the Reagan Administration to non-proliferation. Trends and challenges which may affect future global security are then identified and discussed. The author is optimistic about the future. (U.K.)

  14. Water requirements for livestock production: a global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlink, A C; Nguyen, M L; Viljoen, G J

    2010-12-01

    Water is a vital but poorly studied component of livestock production. It is estimated that livestock industries consume 8% of the global water supply, with most of that water being used for intensive, feed-based production. This study takes a broad perspective of livestock production as a component of the human food chain, and considers the efficiency of its water use. Global models are in the early stages of development and do not distinguish between developing and developed countries, or the production systems within them. However, preliminary indications are that, when protein production is adjusted for biological value in the human diet, no plant protein is significantly more efficient at using water than protein produced from eggs, and only soybean is more water efficient than milk and goat and chicken meat. In some regions, especially developing countries, animals are not used solely for food production but also provide draught power, fibre and fertiliser for crops. In addition, animals make use of crop by-products that would otherwise go to waste. The livestock sector is the fastest-growing agricultural sector, which has led to increasing industrialisation and, in some cases, reduced environmental constraints. In emerging economies, increasing involvement in livestock is related to improving rural wealth and increasing consumption of animal protein. Water usage for livestock production should be considered an integral part of agricultural water resource management, taking into account the type of production system (e.g. grain-fed or mixed crop-livestock) and scale (intensive or extensive), the species and breeds of livestock, and the social and cultural aspects of livestock farming in various countries.

  15. Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

  16. Identifying future electricity-water tradeoffs in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Sovacool, Kelly E.

    2009-01-01

    Researchers for the electricity industry, national laboratories, and state and federal agencies have begun to argue that the country could face water shortages resulting from the addition of thermoelectric power plants, but have not attempted to depict more precisely where or how severe those shortages will be. Using county-level data on rates of population growth collected from the US Census Bureau, utility estimates of future planned capacity additions in the contiguous United States reported to the US Energy Information Administration, and scientific estimates of anticipated water shortages provided from the US Geologic Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this paper highlights the most likely locations of severe shortages in 22 counties brought about by thermoelectric capacity additions. Within these areas are some 20 major metropolitan regions where millions of people live. After exploring the electricity-water nexus and explaining the study's methodology, the article then focuses on four of these metropolitan areas - Houston, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Las Vegas, Nevada; New York, New York - to deepen an understanding of the water and electricity challenges they may soon be facing. It concludes by identifying an assortment of technologies and policies that could respond to these electricity-water tradeoffs.

  17. Hydrology and water law: what is their future common ground?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Arthur M.; Thomas, Harold E.

    1957-01-01

    We live in an age of social and economic evolution--evolution so deep reaching and rapid it constitutes ad revolution in numerous fields of human concern. Long-standing concepts of what is appropriate and orderly face drastic modification if they are to survive. To this situation the principles of applied hydrology and the tenets of water law are no exceptions. Their common ground, incomplete in the past, becomes tenuous when projected into the future. To hydrologists it is common knowledge that the Nation has some trouble spots tin water supply, occasioned by burgeoning population, by standards of living that seem luxurious to other peoples if not to us, and by tremendously dynamic industry whose voracious thirst for water seems insatiable. Seldom is the "trouble" a mere lack of water in a quantity sufficient to serve all real needs; rather, water usually is available only part of the time, at greater-than-customary cost, or under competition among several potential uses. We can expect only that such spots will increase in number and in geographic reach.

  18. Identifying future electricity-water tradeoffs in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K. [Energy Governance Program, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore (Singapore); Sovacool, Kelly E. [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States)

    2009-07-15

    Researchers for the electricity industry, national laboratories, and state and federal agencies have begun to argue that the country could face water shortages resulting from the addition of thermoelectric power plants, but have not attempted to depict more precisely where or how severe those shortages will be. Using county-level data on rates of population growth collected from the US Census Bureau, utility estimates of future planned capacity additions in the contiguous United States reported to the US Energy Information Administration, and scientific estimates of anticipated water shortages provided from the US Geologic Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this paper highlights the most likely locations of severe shortages in 22 counties brought about by thermoelectric capacity additions. Within these areas are some 20 major metropolitan regions where millions of people live. After exploring the electricity-water nexus and explaining the study's methodology, the article then focuses on four of these metropolitan areas - Houston, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Las Vegas, Nevada; New York, New York - to deepen an understanding of the water and electricity challenges they may soon be facing. It concludes by identifying an assortment of technologies and policies that could respond to these electricity-water tradeoffs. (author)

  19. Water Reuse: From Ancient to Modern Times and the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas N. Angelakis

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available From the beginning of the Bronze Age (ca. 3200–1100 BC, domestic wastewater (sewage has been used for irrigation and aquaculture by a number of civilizations including those that developed in China and the Orient, Egypt, the Indus Valley, Mesopotamia, and Crete. In historic times (ca. 1000 BC−330 AD, wastewater was disposed of or used for irrigation and fertilization purposes by the Greek and later Roman civilizations, especially in areas surrounding important cities (e.g., Athens and Rome. In more recent times, the practice of land application of wastewater for disposal and agricultural use was utilized first in European cities and later in USA. Today, water reclamation and reuse projects are being planned and implemented throughout the world. Recycled water is now used for almost any purpose including potable use. This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of water reuse over the last 5,000 years, along with current practice and recommendations for the future. Understanding the practices and solutions of the past, provides a lens with which to view the present and future.

  20. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

  1. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-01-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

  2. A Future-Oriented, Globally Based Curriculum Model for Industrial Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Michael

    1982-01-01

    Presents a future-oriented curriculum approach for industrial technology programs. Major global issues provide the basic structure for curriculum development. These issues include energy management, resource management, technological advancement, and international relations. Rationales for industrial technology are discussed and a curriculum…

  3. Evolution of Water Supply, Sanitation, Wastewater, and Stormwater Technologies Globally

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas N. Angelakis

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an outline of history of hydro-technologies in the west and the east. It is an overview of the special issue on “the evolution of hydro-technologies globally”, in which the key topics regarding the history of water and sanitation worldwide, and its importance to future cities are presented and discussed. It covers a wide range of relevant historical issues, and is presented in three categories: productivity assessment, institutional framework and mechanisms, and governance aspects. This paper concludes by discussing the challenges on future research in this field of study.

  4. Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seekell, D A; D'Odorico, P; Pace, M L

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

  5. Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seekell, D A; D' Odorico, P; Pace, M L [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    The distribution of renewable freshwater resources between countries is highly unequal and 80% of humanity lives in regions where water security is threatened. The transfer of agricultural and industrial products to areas where water is limited through global trade may have potential for redressing water imbalances. These transfers represent 'virtual water' used in commodity production. We evaluated the current water-use inequality between countries and the potential of virtual water transfers to equalize water use among nations using multiple statistical measures of inequality. Overall, the actual use of renewable water resources is relatively equal even though the physical distribution of renewable water resources is highly unequal. Most inequality (76%) in water use is due to agricultural production and can be attributed to climate and arable land availability, not social development status. Virtual water use is highly unequal and is almost completely explained by social development status. Virtual water transfer is unlikely to increase water-use equality primarily because agricultural water use dominates national water needs and cannot be completely compensated by virtual water transfers.

  6. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  7. A summary of global {sup 129}I in marine waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He Peng, E-mail: peng.he@geo.uu.se [Dept. of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villav. 16, 752 36 Uppsala (Sweden); Aldahan, A. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villav. 16, 752 36 Uppsala (Sweden); Dept. of Geology, United Arab Emirates University, P.O. Box 17551, Al Ain (United Arab Emirates); Possnert, G. [Tandem Laboratory, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 529, 751 20 Uppsala (Sweden); Hou, X.L. [Riso National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, NUK-202, Technical University of Denmark, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-01-15

    Despite the many investigations concerning the occurrence of anthropogenic iodine-129 in the atmosphere, terrestrial and marine environments, there is a lack of a comprehensive collection of data on the distribution of the isotope in marine waters. The temporal and spatial variability of anthropogenic {sup 129}I is strongly linked to the major point sources in the Irish Sea and the English Channel and the global marine spreading pathways are partly outlined from these sources. The temporal evolution is still, however, not well defined when transport and dissipation are considered in the different oceans and ocean compartments. We here summarize available published literature data on {sup 129}I temporal and spatial distribution in the global marine water. The results show presence of numerous data sets for the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans where strong variability in terms of water depth, time and location also occur. Scarcity of data on {sup 129}I from the Pacific, Indian and South Atlantic Oceans demonstrates gaps in the coverage of the isotope spatial extent. These shortcomings in the spatial coverage may relate to the understanding that the anthropogenic {sup 129}I signal will take a long time to be transported, if at all, from the North Atlantic into other oceans. Data from recent expeditions in the Southern oceans and the Geotraces ocean profiling will reveal additional information about {sup 129}I distribution in the marine waters.

  8. A summary of global 129I in marine waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Peng; Aldahan, A.; Possnert, G.; Hou, X.L.

    2013-01-01

    Despite the many investigations concerning the occurrence of anthropogenic iodine-129 in the atmosphere, terrestrial and marine environments, there is a lack of a comprehensive collection of data on the distribution of the isotope in marine waters. The temporal and spatial variability of anthropogenic 129 I is strongly linked to the major point sources in the Irish Sea and the English Channel and the global marine spreading pathways are partly outlined from these sources. The temporal evolution is still, however, not well defined when transport and dissipation are considered in the different oceans and ocean compartments. We here summarize available published literature data on 129 I temporal and spatial distribution in the global marine water. The results show presence of numerous data sets for the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans where strong variability in terms of water depth, time and location also occur. Scarcity of data on 129 I from the Pacific, Indian and South Atlantic Oceans demonstrates gaps in the coverage of the isotope spatial extent. These shortcomings in the spatial coverage may relate to the understanding that the anthropogenic 129 I signal will take a long time to be transported, if at all, from the North Atlantic into other oceans. Data from recent expeditions in the Southern oceans and the Geotraces ocean profiling will reveal additional information about 129 I distribution in the marine waters.

  9. Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

    2013-01-01

    An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

  10. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  11. Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty

  12. Global Water Cycle Diagrams Minimize Human Influence and Over-represent Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, B. W.; Bishop, K.; Zarnetske, J. P.; Minaudo, C.; Chapin, F. S., III; Plont, S.; Marçais, J.; Ellison, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Kolbe, T.; Ursache, O.; Hampton, T. B.; GU, S.; Chapin, M.; Krause, S.; Henderson, K. D.; Hannah, D. M.; Pinay, G.

    2017-12-01

    The diagram of the global water cycle is the central icon of hydrology, and for many people, the point of entry to thinking about key scientific concepts such as conservation of mass, teleconnections, and human dependence on ecological systems. Because humans now dominate critical components of the hydrosphere, improving our understanding of the global water cycle has graduated from an academic exercise to an urgent priority. To assess how the water cycle is conceptualized by researchers and the general public, we analyzed 455 water cycle diagrams from textbooks, scientific articles, and online image searches performed in different languages. Only 15% of diagrams integrated human activity into the water cycle and 77% showed no sign of humans whatsoever, although representation of humans varied substantially by region (lowest in China, N. America, and Australia; highest in Western Europe). The abundance and accessibility of freshwater resources were overrepresented, with 98% of diagrams omitting water pollution and climate change, and over 90% of diagrams making no distinction for saline groundwater and lakes. Oceanic aspects of the water cycle (i.e. ocean size, circulation, and precipitation) and related teleconnections were nearly always underrepresented. These patterns held across disciplinary boundaries and through time. We explore the historical and contemporary reasons for some of these biases and present a revised version of the global water cycle based on research from natural and social sciences. We conclude that current depictions of the global water cycle convey a false sense of water security and that reintegrating humans into water cycle diagrams is an important first step towards understanding and sustaining the hydrosocial cycle.

  13. Future water table rise at Yucca Mountain: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, N.M.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has developed a program of Systematic Regulatory Analysis (SRA). The purpose of this program is to ensure that important technical issues related to compliance with 10 CFR Part 60 will be identified before receipt of a license application. A plan is being developed to review the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) demonstration of compliance in the license application for each part of the regulation. Under the siting criteria of NRC's Part 60, one of the potentially adverse conditions is the possibility that the water table may rise high enough to saturate a repository in the unsaturated zone. DOE must evaluate this and other conditions in a license application for a geologic repository site. DOE's evaluation must show compliance with the requirements of Part 60 with reasonable assurance. This paper describes the NRC staff's preliminary plans to review DOE's demonstration of compliance, including assumptions about a future rise of the water table

  14. Agricultural insecticides threaten surface waters at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-05-05

    Compared with nutrient levels and habitat degradation, the importance of agricultural pesticides in surface water may have been underestimated due to a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis. Increasing pesticide contamination results in decreasing regional aquatic biodiversity, i.e., macroinvertebrate family richness is reduced by ∼30% at pesticide concentrations equaling the legally accepted regulatory threshold levels (RTLs). This study provides a comprehensive metaanalysis of 838 peer-reviewed studies (>2,500 sites in 73 countries) that evaluates, for the first time to our knowledge on a global scale, the exposure of surface waters to particularly toxic agricultural insecticides. We tested whether measured insecticide concentrations (MICs; i.e., quantified insecticide concentrations) exceed their RTLs and how risks depend on insecticide development over time and stringency of environmental regulation. Our analysis reveals that MICs occur rarely (i.e., an estimated 97.4% of analyses conducted found no MICs) and there is a complete lack of scientific monitoring data for ∼90% of global cropland. Most importantly, of the 11,300 MICs, 52.4% (5,915 cases; 68.5% of the sites) exceeded the RTL for either surface water (RTLSW) or sediments. Thus, the biological integrity of global water resources is at a substantial risk. RTLSW exceedances depend on the catchment size, sampling regime, and sampling date; are significantly higher for newer-generation insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids); and are high even in countries with stringent environmental regulations. These results suggest the need for worldwide improvements to current pesticide regulations and agricultural pesticide application practices and for intensified research efforts on the presence and effects of pesticides under real-world conditions.

  15. HydroGrid: Technologies for Global Water Quality and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeghiazarian, L.

    2017-12-01

    Humans have been transforming planet Earth for millennia. We have recently come to understand that the collective impact of our decisions and actions has brought about severe water quality problems, which are likely to worsen in the light of rapid population growth to the projected nine billion by 2050. To sustainably manage our global water resources and possibly reverse these effects requires efforts in real-time monitoring of water contamination, analysis of monitoring data, and control of the state of water contamination. We develop technologies to address all three areas: monitoring, analysis and control. These efforts are carried out in the conceptual framework of the HydroGrid, an interconnected water system, which is (1) firmly rooted in the fundamental understanding of processes that govern microbial dynamics on multiple scales; and (2) used to develop watershed-specific management strategies. In the area of monitoring we are developing mobile autonomous sensors to detect surface water contamination, an effort supported by extensive materials research to provide multifunctional materials. We analyze environmental data within a stochastic modeling paradigm that bridges microscopic particle interactions to macroscopic manifestation of microbial population behavior in time and space in entire watersheds. These models are supported with laboratory and field experiments. Finally, we combine control and graph theories to derive controllability metrics of natural watersheds.

  16. Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap

  17. An emergency water injection system (EWIS) for future CANDU reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, Andre L.F.; Todreas, Neil E.; Driscoll, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper deals with the investigation of the feasibility and effectiveness of water injection into the annulus between the calandria tubes and the pressure tubes of CANDU reactors. The purpose is to provide an efficient decay heat removal process that avoids permanent deformation of pressure tubes severe accident conditions, such as loss of coolant accident (LOCA). The water injection may present the benefit of cost reduction and better actuation of other related safety systems. The experimental work was conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), in a setup that simulated, as close as possible, a CANDU bundle annular configuration, with heat fluxes on the order of 90 kW/m 2 : the inner cylinder simulates the pressure tube and the outer tube represents the calandria tube. The experimental matrix had three dimensions: power level, annulus water level and boundary conditions. The results achieved overall heat transfer coefficients (U), which are comparable to those required (for nominal accident progression) to avoid pressure tube permanent deformation, considering current CANDU reactor data. Nonetheless, future work should be carried out to investigate the fluid dynamics such as blowdown behavior, in the peak bundle, and the system lay-out inside the containment to provide fast water injection. (author)

  18. Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernacchi, Carl J., E-mail: bernacch@illinois.edu [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Leakey, Andrew D.B. [Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Kimball, Bruce A. [USDA-ARS US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, 21881 N. Cardon Lane, Maricopa, AZ 85238 (United States); Ort, Donald R. [Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Institute for Genomic Biology and Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O{sub 3}]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O{sub 3}] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O{sub 3}] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: > Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. > We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. > High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. > Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

  19. Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernacchi, Carl J.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ort, Donald R.

    2011-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O 3 ] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O 3 ] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 deg. C. - Highlights: → Globally, tropospheric ozone is currently and will likely continue to increase into the future. → We examine the impact of elevated ozone on water use by soybean at the SoyFACE research facility. → High ozone grown soybean had reduced rates of evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture. → Increases in ozone have the potential to impact the hydrologic cycle where these crops are grown. - Soybean grown in elevated concentrations of ozone is shown to evapotranspire less water compared with soybean canopies grown under current atmospheric conditions.

  20. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  1. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-10-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

  2. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Pacyna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

  3. Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, Steve

    2006-01-01

    The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

  4. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

  5. Global change and water resources in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Hirsch, R.M.

    2010-01-01

    in the first half of the 20th century. Decreased summer runoff affects water supply for agriculture, domestic water supply, cooling needs for thermoelectric power generation, and ecosystem needs. In addition to the reduced volume of streamflow during warm summer months, less water results in elevated stream temperature, which also has significant effects on cooling of power generating facilities and on aquatic ecosystem needs. We are now required to include fish and other aquatic species in negotiation over how much water to leave in the river, rather than, as in the past, how much water we could remove from a river. Additionally, we must pay attention to the quality of that water, including its temperature. This is driven in the US by the Endangered Species Act and the Clean Water Act. Furthermore, we must now better understand and manage the whole hydrograph and the influence of hydrologic variability on aquatic ecosystems. Man has trimmed the tails off the probability distribution of flows. We need to understand how to put the tails back on but can’t do that without improved understanding of aquatic ecosystems. Sea level rise presents challenges for fresh water extraction from coastal aquifers as they are compromised by increased saline intrusion. A related problem faces users of ‘run-of-the-river’ water-supply intakes that are threatened by a salt front that migrates further upstream because of higher sea level. We face significant challenges with water infrastructure. The U.S. has among the highest quality drinking water in the world piped to our homes. However, our water and sewage treatment plants and water and sewer pipelines have not had adequate maintenance or investment for decades. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are up to 3.5M illnesses per year from recreational contact with sewage from sanitary sewage overflows. Infrastructure investment needs have been put at 5 trillion nationally. Global change and water resources c

  6. Once upon a Future Time: Thoughts on the Global Environment and LRE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise

    1993-01-01

    Argues that law-related education should prepare students to be able to debate global environmental issues. Discusses overpopulation, water quality, and species extinction. Concludes that law-related education's critical contribution may be to prepare citizens to balance competing interests and make decisions that promote the common good. (CFR)

  7. Global Changes and Drivers of the Water Footprint of Food Consumption: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Water is one of the most important limiting resources for food production. How much water is needed for food depends on the size of the population, average food consumption patterns and food production per unit of water. These factors show large differences around the world. This paper analyzes sub-continental dynamics of the water footprint of consumption (WFcons for the prevailing diets from 1961 to 2009 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. The findings show that, in most regions, the water needed to feed one person decreased even if diets became richer, because of the increase in water use efficiency in food production during the past half-century. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI decomposition approach is used to analyze the contributions of the major drivers of WFcons for food: population, diet and agricultural practices (output per unit of water. We compare the contributions of these drivers through different subcontinents, and find that population growth still was the major driver behind increasing WFcons for food until now and that potential water savings through agricultural practice improvements were offset by population growth and diet change. The changes of the factors mentioned above were the largest in most developing areas with rapid economic development. With the development of globalization, the international food trade has brought more and more water savings in global water use over time. The results indicate that, in the near future and in many regions, diet change is likely to override population growth as the major driver behind WFcons for food.

  8. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  9. Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

    2010-11-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

  10. Mobilization strategy to overcome global crisis of water consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzdaleva, Antonina; Goryunova, Svetlana; Marchuk, Aleksey; Borovkov, Valery

    2017-10-01

    Today, the global water consumption crisis is one of the main threats that can disrupt socio-economic and environmental conditions of life of the majority of the world’s population. The water consumption mobilization strategy is based on the idea of increasing the available water resources. The main direction for the implementation of this strategy is the construction of anti-rivers - the systems for inter-basin (interregional) water resources redistribution. Antirivers are intended for controlled redistribution of water resources from regions with their catastrophic excess to regions with their critical shortage. The creation of anti-rivers, taking into account the requirements of environmental safety, will form large-scale managed natural- engineering systems and implement the principle of sustainable development adopted by the United Nations. The aim of the article is to substantiate a new methodological approach to address the problem, where the implementation of this approach can prevent large-scale humanitarian and environmental disasters expected in the coming years.

  11. Water quality monitoring strategies - A review and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behmel, S; Damour, M; Ludwig, R; Rodriguez, M J

    2016-11-15

    The reliable assessment of water quality through water quality monitoring programs (WQMPs) is crucial in order for decision-makers to understand, interpret and use this information in support of their management activities aiming at protecting the resource. The challenge of water quality monitoring has been widely addressed in the literature since the 1940s. However, there is still no generally accepted, holistic and practical strategy to support all phases of WQMPs. The purpose of this paper is to report on the use cases a watershed manager has to address to plan or optimize a WQMP from the challenge of identifying monitoring objectives; selecting sampling sites and water quality parameters; identifying sampling frequencies; considering logistics and resources to the implementation of actions based on information acquired through the WQMP. An inventory and critique of the information, approaches and tools placed at the disposal of watershed managers was proposed to evaluate how the existing information could be integrated in a holistic, user-friendly and evolvable solution. Given the differences in regulatory requirements, water quality standards, geographical and geological differences, land-use variations, and other site specificities, a one-in-all solution is not possible. However, we advance that an intelligent decision support system (IDSS) based on expert knowledge that integrates existing approaches and past research can guide a watershed manager through the process according to his/her site-specific requirements. It is also necessary to tap into local knowledge and to identify the knowledge needs of all the stakeholders through participative approaches based on geographical information systems and adaptive survey-based questionnaires. We believe that future research should focus on developing such participative approaches and further investigate the benefits of IDSS's that can be updated quickly and make it possible for a watershed manager to obtain a

  12. Understanding the socio-institutional context to support adaptation for future water security in forest landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahia Devisscher

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the first half of the 21st century, socioeconomic development is expected to contribute faster and to a greater extent to global water stress than climate change. Consequently, we aimed to identify conditions that can facilitate local adaptation planning for future water security, accounting for the socio-institutional context, developmental needs, and interests affecting water use and management. Our study focused on three forest landscapes in Latin America where water stress was identified as a current concern potentially leading to future social conflict if not addressed. In the three sites, we adopted a participatory approach to implement a systematic diagnostic framework for the analysis of socio-institutional barriers and opportunities influencing local adaptation decision making. This novel application enabled science-society engagement in which civil society organizations were coleading the research. The field methods we used involved participatory social network mapping, semistructured interviews, and validation workshops. Our study generated insights into several interventions that could help overcome barriers affecting the adaptation decision-making process, particularly in the diagnosis and early planning phases. Points of intervention included fostering local participation and dialogue to facilitate coproduction of knowledge, and strengthening the role of key central actors in the water governance networks. These key actors are currently bridging multiple interests, information sources, and governance levels, and thus, they could become agents of change that facilitate local adaptation processes. Working jointly with civil society to frame the research proved effective to increase awareness about water issues, which related not only to the technological, economic, and political aspects of water, but also to organizational processes. The involvement of civil society created genuine interest in building further capacity for

  13. Pakistan's water resources development and the global perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mushtaq, M.; Sufi, A.B.

    2005-01-01

    be able to sustain future demands of water and power. In the paper, it is concluded that water has emerged as a very critical and abused natural source. The sedimentation of existing reservoir is enhancing with time, thereby reducing the water availability. Further it is the need of the time to develop water storages at least two mega reservoirs on main Indus immediately to meet irrigation requirements along with, domestic, industry and environment. It is also recommended to move towards sustainable groundwater management through improved irrigation and cultural practices and rainwater harvesting by involving stake holders in water governance. (author)

  14. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  15. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  16. Global hydrobelts: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meybeck, M.; Kummu, M.; Dürr, H. H.

    2012-08-01

    Questions related to water such as its availability, water needs or stress, or management, are mapped at various resolutions at the global scale. They are reported at many scales, mostly along political or continental boundaries. As such, they ignore the fundamental heterogeneity of the hydroclimate and the natural boundaries of the river basins. Here, we describe the continental landmasses according to eight global-scale hydrobelts strictly limited by river basins, defined at a 30' (0.5°) resolution. The belts were defined and delineated, based primarily on the annual average temperature (T) and runoff (q), to maximise interbelt differences and minimise intrabelt variability. The belts were further divided into 29 hydroregions based on continental limits. This new global puzzle defines homogeneous and near-contiguous entities with similar hydrological and thermal regimes, glacial and postglacial basin histories, endorheism distribution and sensitivity to climate variations. The Mid-Latitude, Dry and Subtropical belts have northern and southern analogues and a general symmetry can be observed for T and q between them. The Boreal and Equatorial belts are unique. The hydroregions (median size 4.7 Mkm2) contrast strongly, with the average q ranging between 6 and 1393 mm yr-1 and the average T between -9.7 and +26.3 °C. Unlike the hydroclimate, the population density between the North and South belts and between the continents varies greatly, resulting in pronounced differences between the belts with analogues in both hemispheres. The population density ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 p km-2 for the North American Boreal and some Australian hydroregions to 280 p km-2 for the Asian part of the Northern Mid-Latitude belt. The combination of population densities and hydroclimate features results in very specific expressions of water-related characteristics in each of the 29 hydroregions. Our initial tests suggest that hydrobelt and hydroregion divisions are often more

  17. GEWEX - The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, Moustafa T.

    1992-01-01

    GEWEX, which is part of the World Climate Research Program, has as its goal an order-of-magnitude improvement in the ability to model global precipitation and evaporation and furnish an accurate assessment of the sensitivity of atmospheric radiation and clouds. Attention will also be given to the response of the hydrological cycle and water resources to climate change. GEWEX employs a single program to coordinate all aspects of climatology from model development to the deployment and operation of observational systems. GEWEX will operate over the next two decades.

  18. Anticipated future of Latvia and Russia during a global economic crisis: A mixed methods perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolesovs Aleksandrs

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This cross-cultural study explored subjective predictors of more positive evaluation of the future of the country during a global socioeconomic crisis. A sequential mixed-method design was chosen for an exploration of students’ expectations in Russia and Latvia as countries contrasting in macro-contextual conditions. In 2009, Study 1 was designed as a thematic analysis of essays on topic “The Future of Latvia/Russia”. The results demonstrated that the future of a country is anticipated by taking into account external influences, the present of the country, and its perceived power and stability. In 2011, Study 2 involved these themes as independent variables in a multiple regression model. The results demonstrated that positive evaluation of the present and higher perceived power of the country are individuallevel predictors of more positive evaluation of its future. Observed concordance of models indicates relatively high importance of subjective view of the country in the changing world.

  19. Water Stress in Global Transboundary River Basins: Significance of Upstream Water Use on Downstream Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munia, H.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Mirumachi, N.; Porkka,M.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, M.

    2016-01-01

    Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analyzed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world's transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. Wefound that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

  20. A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

    2015-12-01

    The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for

  1. Grey mullet (Mugilidae) as possible indicators of global warming in South African estuaries and coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Nicola C; Whitfield, Alan K; Harrison, Trevor D

    2016-12-01

    The grey mullet usually occur in large numbers and biomass in the estuaries of all three South African biogeographic regions, thus making it an ideal family to use in terms of possibly acting as an environmental indicator of global warming. In this analysis the relative estuarine abundance of the dominant three groups of mugilids, namely tropical, warm-water and cool-water endemics, were related to sea surface coastal temperatures. The study suggests a strong link between temperature and the distribution and abundance of the three mullet groups within estuaries and indicates the potential of this family to act as an indicator for future climate change within these systems and adjacent coastal waters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  3. Troubling Muddy Waters: Problematizing Reflective Practice in Global Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Thirusha; Kumagai, Arno K

    2016-03-01

    The idea of exporting the concept of reflective practice for a global medical education audience is growing. However, the uncritical export and adoption of Western concepts of reflection may be inappropriate in non-Western societies. The emphasis in Western medical education on the use of reflection for a specific end--that is, the improvement of individual clinical practice--tends to ignore the range of reflective practice, concentrating on reflection alone while overlooking critical reflection and reflexivity. This Perspective places the concept of reflective practice under a critical lens to explore a broader view for its application in medical education outside the West. The authors suggest that ideas about reflection in medicine and medical education may not be as easily transferable from Western to non-Western contexts as concepts from biomedical science are. The authors pose the question, When "exporting" Western medical education strategies and principles, how often do Western-trained educators authentically open up to the possibility that there are alternative ways of seeing and knowing that may be valuable in educating Western physicians? One answer lies in the assertion that educators should aspire to turn exportation of educational theory into a truly bidirectional, collaborative exchange in which culturally conscious views of reflective practice contribute to humanistic, equitable patient care. This discussion engages in troubling the already-muddy waters of reflective practice by exploring the global applicability of reflective practice as it is currently applied in medical education. The globalization of medical education demands critical reflection on reflection itself.

  4. The global distribution of deep-water Antipatharia habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yesson, Chris; Bedford, Faye; Rogers, Alex D.; Taylor, Michelle L.

    2017-11-01

    Antipatharia are a diverse group of corals with many species found in deep water. Many Antipatharia are habitat for associates, have extreme longevity and some species can occur beyond 8500 m depth. As they are major constituents of'coral gardens', which are Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs), knowledge of their distribution and environmental requirements is an important pre-requisite for informed conservation planning particularly where the expense and difficulty of deep-sea sampling prohibits comprehensive surveys. This study uses a global database of Antipatharia distribution data to perform habitat suitability modelling using the Maxent methodology to estimate the global extent of black coral habitat suitability. The model of habitat suitability is driven by temperature but there is notable influence from other variables of topography, surface productivity and oxygen levels. This model can be used to predict areas of suitable habitat, which can be useful for conservation planning. The global distribution of Antipatharia habitat suitability shows a marked contrast with the distribution of specimen observations, indicating that many potentially suitable areas have not been sampled, and that sampling effort has been disproportionate to shallow, accessible areas inside marine protected areas (MPAs). Although 25% of Antipatharia observations are located in MPAs, only 7-8% of predicted suitable habitat is protected, which is short of the Convention on Biological Diversity target to protect 10% of ocean habitats by 2020.

  5. NASA Global Hawk Project Update and Future Plans: A New Tool for Earth Science Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naftel, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Science objectives include: First demonstration of the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for NASA and NOAA Earth science research and applications; Validation of instruments on-board the Aura satellite; Exploration of trace gases, aerosols, and dynamics of remote upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere regions; Sample polar vortex fragments and atmospheric rivers; Risk reduction for future missions that will study hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.

  6. The future of financial reporting 2009 : a time of global financial crisis.

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, M.; Slack, R.E.

    2009-01-01

    A discussion paper based on the British Accounting Association Financial Accounting and Reporting Special Interest Group (FARSIG) Colloquium, 9 January 2009. The theme of the future of financial reporting at a time of global crisis was very topical. The papers and discussion, well captured in this summary, set out the main thoughts at that point, both on the role of accounting in the crisis and the impact of the crisis on accounting. The factors which provoked a crisis on that scale and t...

  7. Current Situation and Future Perspectives of Chinese Popular Music in Global Arena

    OpenAIRE

    Qian, Kun

    2012-01-01

    Music industry, as a rising star of cultural industries, is playing an increasingly important role in globalization of international economy. Nowadays western music has cornered most of the modern music market for a long time while Korea and Japan’s modern music developed quickly these last 20 years which gave Chinese music market huge pressure. Under the background the author aims to observe and analyze present market situation and future perspective of Chinese popular music in this study. ...

  8. Global Knowledge Futures: Articulating the Emergence of a New Meta-level Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M. Gidley

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I articulate a new meta-level field of studies that I call global knowledge futures—a field through which other emerging transdisciplinary fields can be integrated to cohere knowledge at a higher level. I contrast this with the current dominant knowledge paradigm of the global knowledge economy with its fragmentation, commodification and instrumentalism based on neoliberal knowledge capitalism. I take a big-picture, macrohistorical lens to the new thinking and new knowledge patterns that are emerging within the evolution of consciousness discourse. I explore three discourses: postformal studies, integral studies and planetary studies—using a fourth discourse, futures studies, to provide a macro-temporal framing. By extending the meta-fields of postformal, integral and planetary studies into a prospective future dimension, I locate areas of development where these leading-edge discourses can be brought into closer dialogue with each other. In this meeting point of four boundary-spanning discourses I identify the new meta-level field of global knowledge futures, grounded in human thinking capacities, such as creativity, imagination, dialogue and collaboration.

  9. A Global Civilian Power? The Future Role of the European Union in International Politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bedrudin Brljavac

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Questions about the future of the European Union as an international actor continue to puzzle students of international relations and particularly students of EU foreign policy. What kind of predictions can we make about the future role of the EU in international politics? While the question is often framed in terms of military versus normative and/or global civilian power Europe, there are indications that ambitions in both directions may very well coincide. However, despite the EU’s development towards deepened defense integration since the 1990s, such developments are by far outweighed by developments pointing in the direction of the EU consolidating its role as a global civilian power. In this article, we analyze the union’s civilian policies and contrast the findings of our analysis with developments in the field of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP. Based on our analysis of EU enlargement policy, external aid, global environmental policy and the union’s commitment to multilateralism, our conclusion is that the EU’s international role in the next decades will continue to be best described in terms of a global civilian power.

  10. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  11. Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Hagen; Voegele, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. (author)

  12. Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe LoBuglio

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11% use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18% use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety.

  13. Global Access to Safe Water: Accounting for Water Quality and the Resulting Impact on MDG Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onda, Kyle; LoBuglio, Joe; Bartram, Jamie

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) drinking water target relies on classification of water sources as “improved” or “unimproved” as an indicator for water safety. We adjust the current Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) estimate by accounting for microbial water quality and sanitary risk using the only-nationally representative water quality data currently available, that from the WHO and UNICEF “Rapid Assessment of Drinking Water Quality”. A principal components analysis (PCA) of national environmental and development indicators was used to create models that predicted, for most countries, the proportions of piped and of other-improved water supplies that are faecally contaminated; and of these sources, the proportions that lack basic sanitary protection against contamination. We estimate that 1.8 billion people (28% of the global population) used unsafe water in 2010. The 2010 JMP estimate is that 783 million people (11%) use unimproved sources. Our estimates revise the 1990 baseline from 23% to 37%, and the target from 12% to 18%, resulting in a shortfall of 10% of the global population towards the MDG target in 2010. In contrast, using the indicator “use of an improved source” suggests that the MDG target for drinking-water has already been achieved. We estimate that an additional 1.2 billion (18%) use water from sources or systems with significant sanitary risks. While our estimate is imprecise, the magnitude of the estimate and the health and development implications suggest that greater attention is needed to better understand and manage drinking water safety. PMID:22690170

  14. NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

  15. Finding synergy between local competitiveness and global sustainability to provide a future to nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Yacout, Abdellatif; Wade, Dave

    2008-01-01

    The world's future energy needs will require a mix of energy conversion technologies matched to the local energy market needs while also responding to both local and global socio-political concerns, e.g. energy security, environmental impact, safety and non-proliferation. There is growing recognition worldwide that nuclear energy should not only be part of the solution but maybe as well play a larger share in future's energy supply. The sustainability of future nuclear energy systems is hereby important and a variety of studies have already shown that sustainability of nuclear energy from a resource perspective is achievable via the nuclear fuel cycle though where economic sustainability is essentially defined by the nuclear power plants. The main challenge in deploying sustainable nuclear energy systems will be to find synergies between this local competitiveness of nuclear power plants and the global resource sustainability defined via the nuclear fuel cycle. Both may go hand-in-hand in the long-term but may need government guidance in starting the transition towards such future sustainable nuclear energy systems. (authors)

  16. Water Resource Impacts Embedded in the Western US Electrical Energy Trade; Current Patterns and Adaptation to Future Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, E. A.; Herron, S.; Qiu, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Ruddell, B. L.

    2013-12-01

    Water resources are a key element in the global coupled natural-human (CNH) system, because they are tightly coupled with the world's social, environmental, and economic subsystems, and because water resources are under increasing pressure worldwide. A fundamental adaptive tool used especially by cities to overcome local water resource scarcity is the outsourcing of water resource impacts through substitutionary economic trade. This is generally understood as the indirect component of a water footprint, and as ';virtual water' trade. This work employs generalized CNH methods to reveal the trade in water resource impacts embedded in electrical energy within the Western US power grid, and utilizes a general equilibrium economic trade model combined with drought and demand growth constraints to estimate the future status of this trade. Trade in embedded water resource impacts currently increases total water used for electricity production in the Western US and shifts water use to more water-limited States. Extreme drought and large increases in electrical energy demand increase the need for embedded water resource impact trade, while motivating a shift to more water-efficient generation technologies and more water-abundant generating locations. Cities are the largest users of electrical energy, and in the 21st Century will outsource a larger fraction of their water resource impacts through trade. This trade exposes cities to risks associated with disruption of long-distance transmission and distant hydrological droughts.

  17. Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical mo...

  18. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

  19. The future role of nuclear power in addressing global environmental problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stumpf, W.

    1995-01-01

    Decision makers have to increasingly balance the costs versus benefits of various energy choices against a background of global environmental deterioration. This is particularly so in the choice of long term electricity production strategies where these have to be balanced against the potential of a very severe disruption of the world's climate due to global warming. In this presentation, the threat of global warming is quantified and scenarios are developed of future predicted energy consumption patterns and their impact on international policies to curb global warming, are analyzed. The conclusion is reached that the threat of global warming is so severe that, on the macro level, an international accepted strategy of utilising a proper balance between all forms of electricity production, is a matter of priority and that all national energy choices should be taken against this framework. Such strategic decisions on the macro level must, however, also translate into the micro level of energy production on topics which include: - more efficient plant utilisation; - more effective risk management; correct choice and application of technology; and - better understanding of issues concerning safety, quality and environmental impact. (author)

  20. [Future Regulatory Science through a Global Product Development Strategy to Overcome the Device Lag].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchii, Isao

    2016-01-01

    Environment that created "medical device lag (MDL)" has changed dramatically, and currently that term is not heard often. This was mainly achieved through the leadership of three groups: government, which determined to overcome MDL and took steps to do so; medical societies, which exhibited accountability in trial participation; and MD companies, which underwent a change in mindset that allowed comprehensive tripartite cooperation to reach the current stage. In particular, the global product development strategy (GPDS) of companies in a changing social environment has taken a new-turn with international harmonization trends, like Global Harmonization Task Force and International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use. As a result, this evolution has created opportunities for treatment with cutting-edge MDs in Japanese society. Simultaneously, it has had a major impact on the planning process of GPDS of companies. At the same time, the interest of global companies has shifted to emerging economies for future potential profit since Japan no longer faces MDL issue. This economic trend makes MDLs a greater problem for manufacturers. From the regulatory science viewpoint, this new environment has not made it easy to plan a global strategy that will be adaptable to local societies. Without taking hasty action, flexible thinking from the global point of view is necessary to enable the adjustment of local strategies to fit the situation on the ground so that the innovative Japanese medical technology can be exported to a broad range of societies.

  1. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  2. Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org) is the development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model. This model is able to produce 14 day ensemble forecasts based on a hydrological model and operational weather data (presently NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System). Special attention is paid to prediction of situations in which water related issues are relevant, such as floods, droughts, navigation, hydropower generation, and irrigation stress. Near-real time satellite data will be assimilated in the hydrological simulations, which is a feature that will be presented for the first time at EGU 2015. First, we address challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. An important feature in this is the use of existing standards and open-source software to the maximum extent possible. For example, we use the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) approach to coupling models (Basic Model Interface (BMI)). The hydrological model underlying the project is PCR-GLOBWB, built by Utrecht University. This is the motor behind the predictions and state estimations. Parts of PCR-GLOBWB have been re-engineered to facilitate running it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, run parallel on multiple nodes, as well as to use BMI. Hydrological models are not very CPU intensive compared to, say, atmospheric models. They are, however, memory hungry due to the localized processes and associated effective parameters. To accommodate this memory need, especially in an ensemble setting, a variation on the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter was developed that needs much less on-chip memory. Due to the operational nature, the coupling of the hydrological model with hydraulic models is very important. The idea is not to run detailed hydraulic routing schemes over the complete globe but to have on-demand simulation prepared off-line with respect to topography and

  3. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  4. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

    2017-12-01

    During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance

  5. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  6. How well will the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission observe global reservoirs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solander, Kurt C.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2016-03-01

    Accurate observations of global reservoir storage are critical to understand the availability of managed water resources. By enabling estimates of surface water area and height for reservoir sizes exceeding 250 m2 at a maximum repeat orbit of up to 21 days, the NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission (anticipated launch date 2020) is expected to greatly improve upon existing reservoir monitoring capabilities. It is thus essential that spatial and temporal measurement uncertainty for water bodies is known a priori to maximize the utility of SWOT observations as the data are acquired. In this study, we evaluate SWOT reservoir observations using a three-pronged approach that assesses temporal aliasing, errors due to specific reservoir spatial properties, and SWOT performance over actual reservoirs using a combination of in situ and simulated reservoir observations from the SWOTsim instrument simulator. Results indicate temporal errors to be less than 5% for the smallest reservoir sizes (100 km2). Surface area and height errors were found to be minimal (area SWOT, this study will be have important implications for future applications of SWOT reservoir measurements in global monitoring systems and models.

  7. The Energy-Water Nexus: Managing the Links between Energy and Water for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussey, Karen; Petit, Carine

    2010-05-01

    preliminary list of recommendations on how best to account for and integrate these impacts into policy and decision-making processes at various institutional levels was prepared and future research needs in the energy-water nexus were suggested as main outcomes. This presentation draws on the contributions to the COST water-energy-links exploratory workshops and the development of 12 case studies undertaken by researchers from Europe, the United States, Australia and China, which will be published in a Special Feature of Ecology and Society, mid-2010.

  8. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  9. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Liu

    Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  10. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  11. Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brikowski, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a

  12. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  13. Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehm, Alexander; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Pavlis, Erricos C.; Seitz, Florian

    2018-06-01

    Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.

  14. A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Heinimann

    Full Text Available Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation-the majority in the Americas (41% and Africa (37%-this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security

  15. Does science need a global language? English and the future of research

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Scott L

    2013-01-01

    In early 2012, the global scientific community erupted with news that the elusive Higgs boson had likely been found, providing potent validation for the Standard Model of how the universe works. Scientists from more than one hundred countries contributed to this discovery-proving, beyond any doubt, that a new era in science had arrived, an era of multinationalism and cooperative reach. Globalization, the Internet, and digital technology all play a role in making this new era possible, but something more fundamental is also at work. In all scientific endeavors lies the ancient drive for sharing ideas and knowledge, and now this can be accomplished in a single tongue - English. But is this a good thing? In "Does Science Need a Global Language?", Scott L. Montgomery seeks to answer this question by investigating the phenomenon of global English in science, how and why it came about, the forms in which it appears, what advantages and disadvantages it brings, and what its future might be. He also examines the cons...

  16. The Global Rise of Zero Liquid Discharge for Wastewater Management: Drivers, Technologies, and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Tiezheng; Elimelech, Menachem

    2016-07-05

    Zero liquid discharge (ZLD)-a wastewater management strategy that eliminates liquid waste and maximizes water usage efficiency - has attracted renewed interest worldwide in recent years. Although implementation of ZLD reduces water pollution and augments water supply, the technology is constrained by high cost and intensive energy consumption. In this critical review, we discuss the drivers, incentives, technologies, and environmental impacts of ZLD. Within this framework, the global applications of ZLD in the United States and emerging economies such as China and India are examined. We highlight the evolution of ZLD from thermal- to membrane-based processes, and analyze the advantages and limitations of existing and emerging ZLD technologies. The potential environmental impacts of ZLD, notably greenhouse gas emission and generation of solid waste, are discussed and the prospects of ZLD technologies and research needs are highlighted.

  17. A review and future prospects of renewable energy in the global energy system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    D Yogi GOSWAMI; John & Naida Ramil Professor; Co-Director

    2008-01-01

    Global energy consumption in the last half century has rapidly increased and is expected to continue to grow over the next 50 years, however, with significant differences. The past increase was stimulated by relatively "cheap" fossil fuels and increased rates of industrialization in North America, Europe and Japan; yet while energy consumption in these countries continues to increase, additional factors make the picture for the next 50 years more complex. These additional complicating factors include China and India's rapid increase in energy use as they represent about a third of the world's population; the expected depletion of oil resources in the near future; and, the effect of human activities on global climate change. On the positive side, the renewable energy (RE) technologies of wind, bio-fuels, solar thermal and photovoltaics (PV) are finally showing maturity and the ultimate promise of cost competitiveness.

  18. Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Finger

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

  19. Global monthly water scarcity: Blue water footprints versus blue water availability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Mekonnen, Mesfin; Chapagain, Ashok; Mathews, R.E.; Richter, B.D.

    2012-01-01

    Freshwater scarcity is a growing concern, placing considerable importance on the accuracy of indicators used to characterize and map water scarcity worldwide. We improve upon past efforts by using estimates of blue water footprints (consumptive use of ground- and surface water flows) rather than

  20. Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; hide

    2017-01-01

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

  1. 76 FR 55060 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-06

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9459-7] Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change... entitled, Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi- stressor... vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystems across the United States to the potential impacts of...

  2. Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a

  3. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  4. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  5. The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen; Holm, Poul; Blight, Louise; Coll, Marta; MacDiarmid, Alison; Ojaveer, Henn; Poulsen, Bo; Tull, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

  6. The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

    The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

  7. Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

  8. Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

  9. Terrestrial Water Flux Responses to Global Warming in Tropical Rainforest Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Kumar, S.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (TWFn) (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results reveal that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes (TWF) lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

  10. Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia; Kumar, Sanjiv

    2016-05-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

  11. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

    2017-04-01

    abiotic, biotic, and human elements of the landscape (soil, plant cover, crops, water resources, etc.). Simulation and modelling is now an essential tool in the study of landscape and of the effects of Climate Change, not only towards the future through scenarios and simulation modelling, also to the past, to better understand what causes have led to effects, and to what extent. In this work we aim to create a set of software tools for analysis, modelling and simulation of the effects of Global change on two Mediterranean catchments: the middle and upper basin of the Grande River and the high Benamargosa River, both of them in the Province of Málaga (South of Spain). This will allow a full analysis, monitor, and predict those effects at local scale. Finally, we analyse the role that the impact of Global Change issues has had from the media point of view and what tendency can follow. References Dearing, J. et al. (2006): «Human-environment interactions: towards synthesis and simulation». Regional Environmental Change, n° 6, 115-123. García-Ruiz et al. (2015): «Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales». Pirineos, 170. Steffen, W. et al. (2004): Global Change and the Earth System: a planet under pressure. Executive summary. The IGBP Global Change Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelburg, 44 pp., New York. Vitousek, P.M. et al. (1997): «Human domination of earth's ecosystems». Science, n° 277, 494-499.

  12. TRMM and Its Connection to the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummerow, Christian; Hong, Ye

    1999-01-01

    The importance of quantitative knowledge of tropical rainfall, its associated latent heating and variability is summarized in the context of the global hydrologic cycle. Much of the tropics is covered by oceans. What land exists, is covered largely by rainforests that are only thinly populated. The only way to adequately measure the global tropical rainfall for climate and general circulation models is from space. The TRMM orbit is inclined 35' leading to good sampling in the tropics and a rapid precession to study the diurnal cycle of precipitation. The precipitation instrument complement consists of the first rain radar to be flown in space (PR), a multi-channel passive microwave sensor (TMI) and a five-channel VIS/IR (VIRS) sensor. The precipitation radar operates at a frequency of 13.6 GHz. The swath width is 220 km, with a horizontal resolution of 4 km and the vertical resolution of 250 in. The minimum detectable signal from the precipitation radar has been measured at 17 dBZ. The TMI instrument is designed similar to the SSM/I with two important changes. The 22.235 GHz water vapor absorption channel of the SSM/I was moved to 21.3 GHz in order to avoid saturation in the tropics and 10.7 GHz V&H polarized channels were added to expand the dynamic range of rainfall estimates. The resolution of the TMI varies from 4.6 km at 85 GHz to 36 km at 10.7 GHz. The visible and infrared sensor (VIRS) measures radiation at 0.63, 1.6, 3.75, 10.8 and 12.0 microns. The spatial resolution of all five VIRS channels is 2 km at nadir. In addition to the three primary rainfall instruments, TRMM will also carry a Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and a Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument.

  13. Global monthly water scarcity: blue water footprints versus blue water availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Chapagain, Ashok K; Mathews, Ruth E; Richter, Brian D

    2012-01-01

    Freshwater scarcity is a growing concern, placing considerable importance on the accuracy of indicators used to characterize and map water scarcity worldwide. We improve upon past efforts by using estimates of blue water footprints (consumptive use of ground- and surface water flows) rather than water withdrawals, accounting for the flows needed to sustain critical ecological functions and by considering monthly rather than annual values. We analyzed 405 river basins for the period 1996-2005. In 201 basins with 2.67 billion inhabitants there was severe water scarcity during at least one month of the year. The ecological and economic consequences of increasing degrees of water scarcity--as evidenced by the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo), Indus, and Murray-Darling River Basins--can include complete desiccation during dry seasons, decimation of aquatic biodiversity, and substantial economic disruption.

  14. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  15. How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

    2017-12-01

    Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

  16. Light water reactor safety. Past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sehgal, Bal Raj

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the past, present and possible future developments in light water reactor (LWR) safety. The paper divides the past into two periods: the distant past i.e., before the TMI-2 accident when the main concern was with the design basis, the general design criteria, the concept of the defense in depth, the thermal hydraulics of the large loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and the success of the emergency core cooling system (ECCS), and the near past, i.e., after the TMI-2 accident when the main concern was with the physics of the postulated severe accidents: their prevention and mitigation. The present period is chosen as the translation of the research on the design basis and severe accidents into practical designs of Gen III+ with their core catchers and severe accident management (SAM) strategies, which could, in fact, provide ample assurances of public safety even for very severe accidents. The paper attempts to describe the remaining safety issues for both the Gen II and Gen III+ nuclear plants. The more important safety challenges are being posed by the recent moves of (1) extension of the life of the presently installed Gen II LWRs to 60 years (and perhaps to 80 years) and (2) the large uprates in power that are being sought for the Gen II LWRs. Clearly, the safety margins will be tested by these moves of long extended operations with greater power ratings of the Gen II plants. A prognosis of the emerging development trends in the LWR safety has been attempted with some suggestions. (author)

  17. Future development in heavy water reactors in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, J.; Hart, R.G.

    1982-01-01

    1982 marks the 35th anniversary of the start-up of Canada's first research and test reactor, NRX. Its first power reactor has been operating successfully for the past 20 years. With 5,000 MWe of domestic capacity installed, Canada's major CANDU (Canada Deuterium, Uranium) nuclear program has a further 9,500 MWe under construction in Canada for completion by 1990 as well as committed offshore projects in Argentina, Korea and Romania. The CANDU operating record, by any measure of performance, has been outstanding. This performance is largely due to the discipline imposed on the development, design, construction and operation by two fundamental choices: natural uranium and heavy water. The impact of these two choices on availability, fuel utilization, safety and economics is discussed. Future plans call for building on those characteristics which have made CANDU so successful. When time for change comes, current assessments indicate that it will be possible to convert to more efficient advanced fuel cycles without major changes to the basic CANDU design. Primary attention is being focussed on thorium fuel cycles to ensure an abundant and continuing supply of low cost energy for the long term. The resource savings available from these fuel cycles in expanding systems are reviewed and compared with those available from LWR's and Fast Breeders. The results clearly illustrate the versatility of the CANDU reactor. It can benefit from enrichment plants or get along without them. It can complement LWR's or compete with them. It can complement Fast Breeder Reactors or compete with them as well. In the very long term CANDU's and Fast Breeders combined offer the potential of burning all the world's uranium and all the world's thorium. (author)

  18. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

    2008-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

  19. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2017-09-01

    Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

  20. Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

  1. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  2. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  3. Future market sustainable water management and nanotechnology; Zukunftsmarkt Nachhaltige Wasserwirtschaft und Nanotechnologie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luther, Wolfgang; Bachmann, Gerd; Grimm, Vera; Schug, Hartmut; Zweck, Axel [VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2007-12-15

    This case study on nanotechnology with a focus on sustainable water management was done within the scope of the research project ''Future markets - innovative environmental policy in important fields of action''. Nanotechnology is a broad cross-cutting technology with a multitude of process and technology platforms. Nanotechnologies can contribute to preventing water pollution (e. g. by substituting water polluting processes) or removing this (e. g. nanomaterials/ membranes in wastewater treatment) and can be used to monitor water quality (e. g. nanosensors). Water plays a key role in nutrition and health, in agriculture (irrigation) and as a solvent in industrial processes. A globally sustainable supply of drinking water and industrial water is seen as one of the main challenges of the next decades. The world water supply market is predicted to be more than 400 billion US-$ (2010), in which membrane technologies will play a key role. The rapid development of nanotechnologies is reflected in the constant growth in the number of nanotechnology patents and publications. New types of filtration membranes and nanomaterials for the catalytic, adsorptive or magnetic-separation purification of wastewater constitute an important segment; some marketable products have already been developed in this field. In the long term, convergence in the fields of electronics, biotechnology, nanotechnology and microsystems will offer new perspectives and applications, in sustainable water management as well. Germany has high technological competence in membrane and nanofiltration technology, mostly based on the strength of its basic research, which can serve as a good basis from which to tap foreign markets. The USA is the leader in the field of nanotechnology and in water management applications. Starting points for policy measures are the initiation and implementation of innovationsupporting measures for the further development of these technologies -particularly

  4. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  5. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Hughes, Gordon A

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  6. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H [Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam (Netherlands); Strzepek, Kenneth M [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA (United States); Hughes, Gordon A, E-mail: philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl [School of Economics, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-15

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  7. The Global Nuclear Futures Model: A Dynamic Simulation Tool for Energy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bixler, N.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Nuclear Futures Model (GNFM) is a dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global nuclear materials management, and nuclear proliferation risk. It links nuclear energy and other energy shares dynamically to greenhouse gas emissions and twelve other measures of environmental impact. It presents historical data from 1990 to 2000 and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. More specifically, it contains separate modules for energy, the nuclear fuel cycle front end, the nuclear fuel cycle back end, defense nuclear materials, environmental impacts, and measures of the potential for nuclear proliferation. It is globally integrated but also breaks out five regions of the world so that environmental impacts and nuclear proliferation concerns can be evaluated on a regional basis. The five regions are the United States of America (USA), The Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the OECD nations excluding the USA, and the rest of the world (ROW). (author)

  8. Hydropower's future, the environment, and global electricity systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sternberg, R. [Department of Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Ave, Montclair, NJ 07043-1624 (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Hydropower is a well established electricity system on the global scene. Global electricity needs by far exceed the amount of electricity that hydrosystems can provide to meet global electricity needs. Much of the world's hydropower remains to be brought into production. Improved technology, better calibrated environmental parameters for large projects have become the norm in the past 15 years. How and why does hydropower retain a prominent role in electricity production? How and why does hydropower find social acceptance in diverse social systems? How does hydropower project planning address issues beyond electricity generation? How does the systems approach to hydropower installations further analysis of comparative energy sources powering electricity systems? Attention to the environmental impact of hydropower facilities forms an integral part of systems analysis. Similarly, the technical, political and economic variables call for balanced analysis to identify the viability status of hydro projects. Economic competition among energy systems requires in context assessments as these shape decision making in planning of hydropower systems. Moreover, technological change has to be given a time frame during which the sector advances in productivity and share in expanding electricity generation. The low production costs per kWh assure hydropower at this juncture, 2009, a very viable future. (author)

  9. The future of nuclear power worldwide and the role of the global nuclear energy partnership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spurgeon, D.R.

    2008-01-01

    This presentation is entitled, 'The Future of Nuclear Power Worldwide and the Role of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership', and the core message in one sentence is: When we look at the challenges of meeting our growing energy demands, providing for energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we must conclude that nuclear power has to play a significant and growing role in meeting these challenges. Similarly, the mission of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership is to foster the safe and secure worldwide expansion of nuclear energy. GNEP comes at a crucial time in the burgeoning expansion of nuclear power. It is the only comprehensive proposal to close the nuclear fuel cycle in the United States, and engage the international community to minimize proliferation risks as well as provide and benefit from cooperation in policy formation, technical support, and technology and infrastructure development. Nuclear power's poised renaissance is encouraging, but it will require public support, expanded R and D activities and facilities, and increases in human capital needed for wide-scale construction and operation of new nuclear plants. Despite recent political currents, Germany can, too, become a part of this renaissance and become a full partner in the global partnership that shares a common vision for nuclear power's expansion. (orig.)

  10. Global land and water grabbing for food and bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing demand for food, fibers and biofuels, the consequently escalating prices of agricultural products, and the uncertainty of international food markets have recently drawn the attention of governments and corporations toward investments in productive agricultural land, mostly in developing countries. Since 2000 more than 37 million hectares of arable land have been purchased or leased by foreign investors worldwide. The targeted regions are typically located in areas where crop yields are relatively low because of lack of modern technology. It is expected that in the long run large scale investments in agriculture and the consequent development of commercial farming will bring the technology required to close the existing crop yield gaps. Recently, a number of studies and reports have documented the process of foreign land acquisition, while the associated appropriation of land based resources (e.g., water and crops) has remained poorly investigated. The amount of food this land can produce and the number of people it could feed still needs to be quantified. It is also unclear to what extent the acquired land will be used to for biofuel production and the role played by U.S. and E.U. bioenergy policies as drivers of the ongoing land rush. The environmental impacts of these investments in agriculture require adequate investigation. Here we provide a global quantitative assessment of the rates of water and crop appropriation potentially associated with large scale land acquisitions. We evaluate the associated impacts on the food and energy security of both target and investors' countries, and highlight the societal and environmental implications of the land rush phenomenon.

  11. Assessment of the terrestrial water balance using the global water availability and use model WaterGAP - status and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Döll, Petra

    2017-04-01

    The estimation of the World's water resources has a long tradition and numerous methods for quantification exists. The resulting numbers vary significantly, leaving room for improvement. Since some decades, global hydrological models (GHMs) are being used for large scale water budget assessments. GHMs are designed to represent the macro-scale hydrological processes and many of those models include human water management, e.g. irrigation or reservoir operation, making them currently the first choice for global scale assessments of the terrestrial water balance within the Anthropocene. The Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a model framework that comprises both the natural and human water dimension and is in development and application since the 1990s. In recent years, efforts were made to assess the sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing input data and, e.g., how this sensitivity is affected by WaterGAP's calibration scheme. This presentation shows the current best estimate of terrestrial water balance components as simulated with WaterGAP by 1) assessing global and continental water balance components for the climate period 1971-2000 and the IPCC reference period 1986-2005 for the most current WaterGAP version using a homogenized climate forcing data, 2) investigating variations of water balance components for a number of state-of-the-art climate forcing data and 3) discussing the benefit of the calibration approach for a better observation-data constrained global water budget. For the most current WaterGAP version 2.2b and a homogenized combination of the two WATCH Forcing Datasets, global scale (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) river discharge into oceans and inland sinks (Q) is assessed to be 40 000 km3 yr-1 for 1971-2000 and 39 200 km3 yr-1 for 1986-2005. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is close to each other with around 70 600 (70 700) km3 yr-1 as well as water consumption with 1000 (1100) km3 yr-1. The

  12. Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

    2002-01-01

    With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the

  13. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  14. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  15. Passionate Perspectives: Global Change Emersion in Southwestern Dust and Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    "Tell me, and I'll forget. Show me, and I may remember. But involve me, and I'll understand" (attributed to various philosophers). How many professors have shared 20-30 days traveling, hiking, camping, and Coleman stove cooking with 25-50 young adults? Sixteen times! Way over a year on a field trip…holy sh*t! Tired… but happy. We have offered an extended camping field trip that feature the highlands and deserts of Utah, Arizona, Mexico and California; with side trips to Colorado and New Mexico. Two science and one social science courses focus on global environmental change, water and human development. The discussion will center on the short and long term evolution(s) that have occurred: who, what, where, when and why, and perhaps most important, HOW! These tours are amazing learning experiences that go way beyond any classroom. Many of our students have found the expedition to be life changing - or life awakening. Hopefully we can squeeze the essence into our few minutes of fame :) "Once more I am roaring drunk with the lust of life and adventure and unbearable beauty... Adventure seems to beset me on all quarters without my even searching for it... Though not all my days are as wild as this, each one holds its surprises, and I have seen almost more beauty than I can bear." - Everett Reuss

  16. Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW) data set measures atmospheric water vapor using ground-based...

  17. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  18. Future market decentralized water purification and rain water management; Zukunftsmarkt Dezentrale Wasseraufbereitung und Regenwassermanagement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartorius, Christian [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2007-12-15

    With regard to forthcoming climate and demographic changes, semi- and decentralised concepts of water supply and sewage disposal infrastructure are of crucial importance as they are more able to adapt to yet uncertain challenges than the established centrally structured infrastructure. Pivotal elements of such more decentralised infrastructures are the conditioning and re-use of rain and grey water. In this context, rainwater management is of special relevance as it reduces the impact of extreme precipitation on the environment and, at the same time, enables the replenishment of groundwater reservoirs. Another key technology for up-grading of all sorts of raw and wastewater is membrane filtration, which shows its superior potential whenever the conventional technology reaches its limits. With regard to technical capability and performance in foreign trade, the USA, Canada, United Kingdom and the Netherlands are the strongest competitors of the German water industry. Another important country is France, which, due to its colonial past and its high degree of privatisation, hosts the largest global players - Veolia and Suez. Compared with its competitors, the strength of the German water sector is based on the wide variety of innovative, small and medium-sized companies with strong international trade relations offsetting the power of big players by a high degree of flexibility. By contrast, the main weakness of the German water sector is the small-scale structure and local economic orientation of basically public owned utilities, which tends to hinder the formation of powerful water technology companies and the respective networks. While current exports of water-related technology are mainly focussed on central infrastructures, decentralised water supply and sewage disposal are increasingly relevant in Germany today. They may do so even more, if the development and diffusion of the latter technologies are enhanced by demand-oriented innovation policy and the

  19. Future gender relations in global restructuring processes case study evidence from knowledge-intensive, manufacturing and service occupations

    OpenAIRE

    Linda Nierling

    2008-01-01

    Global restructuring processes have not only strong implications for European working and living realities, but also have specific outcomes with regard to gender relations. The following contribution analyses in which way global restructuring shapes current gender relations in order to identify important trends and developments for future gender (in)equalities at the workplace. On the basis of a large qualitative study on global restructuring and impacts on different occupational groups it ar...

  20. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  1. An Exploratory Study of Global Issues Impacting the Future of Tourism in Aruba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin S. Murphy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide competition, international foreign policy, changing demographics and the global environment emerged as primary concerns by participants in the think tanks on Visioning the Future of Aruba. The general goal of these forums was to identify and describe the forces driving change, competitive methods and core competencies that will impact the Aruban tourism industry in the next ten years. To achieve these objectives, thirty-five leaders of the Aruban tourism industry gathered for a series of think tank forums over a two year period. The results of the forums demonstrated that there is a distinct link between environmental forces and the impact that those forces have on tourism businesses located in Aruba. The tourism industry in Aruba is facing major challenges in a rapidly changing environment. Participants acknowledged the increasing difficulty associated with maintaining a competitive advantage in the tourism industry and asserted that it will be necessary to engage in creative new competitive methods as an investment in the future of Aruba. Specifically, the group agreed four future competitive methods were in need of development: ecologically responsible destination, sustainable development, safety & security, and sustainable growth & competitiveness.

  2. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

    2017-05-01

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

  3. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation after 55 years: assessing past, present and future developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguas-Araguas, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2015-04-01

    regionalized cluster-based water isotope prediction model (RCWIP) which uses fuzzy clustering to delineate regions of climatic similarity, and to determine regionalized regression models for each climatic cluster in order to lower prediction uncertainty of isotope values. Here, we present new data and figures on the spatial and temporal evolution of the GNIP network, including station spatial density and coverage analysis. Moreover, we assess outstanding deficits in the spatial coverage of the GNIP network by applying the clustering structure of the RCWIP approach to identify those regions which would benefit most from an improved GNIP sampling. Finally, we present an updated global meteoric water (GMWL) line based on different calculation methods (ordinary least squares method, weighted least squares, or based on weighted means).

  4. A review of current and possible future human-water dynamics in Myanmar's river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taft, Linda; Evers, Mariele

    2016-12-01

    Rivers provide a large number of ecosystem services and riparian people depend directly and indirectly on water availability and quality and quantity of the river waters. The country's economy and the people's well-being and income, particularly in agriculturally dominated countries, are strongly determined by the availability of sufficient water. This is particularly true for the country of Myanmar in South-east Asia, where more than 65 % of the population live in rural areas, working in the agricultural sector. Only a few studies exist on river basins in Myanmar at all and detailed knowledge providing the basis for human-water research is very limited. A deeper understanding of human-water system dynamics in the country is required because Myanmar's society, economy, ecosystems and water resources are facing major challenges due to political and economic reforms and massive and rapid investments from neighbouring countries. However, not only policy and economy modify the need for water. Climate variability and change are other essential drivers within human-water systems. Myanmar's climate is influenced by the Indian Monsoon circulation which is subject to interannual and also regional variability. Particularly the central dry zone and the Ayeyarwady delta are prone to extreme events such as serious drought periods and extreme floods. On the one hand, the farmers depend on the natural fertiliser brought by regular river inundations and high groundwater levels for irrigation; on the other hand, they suffer from these water-related extreme events. It is expected that theses climatic extreme events will likely increase in frequency and magnitude in the future as a result of global climate change. Different national and international interests in the abundant water resources may provide opportunities and risks at the same time for Myanmar. Several dam projects along the main courses of the rivers are currently in the planning phase. Dams will most likely modify the

  5. Forward and pressure retarded osmosis: potential solutions for global challenges in energy and water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaysom, Chalida; Cath, Tazhi Y; Depuydt, Tom; Vankelecom, Ivo F J

    2013-08-21

    Osmotically driven membrane processes (ODMP) have gained renewed interest in recent years and they might become a potential solution for the world's most challenging problems of water and energy scarcity. Though the concept of utilizing osmotic pressure difference between high and low salinity streams across semipermeable membranes has been explored for several decades, lack of optimal membranes and draw solutions hindered competition between forward osmosis (FO) and pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) with existing water purification and power generation technologies, respectively. Driven by growing global water scarcity and by energy cost and negative environmental impacts, novel membranes and draw solutions are being developed for ODMPs, mass and heat transfer in osmotic process are becoming better understood, and new applications of ODMPs are emerging. Therefore, OMDPs might become promising green technologies to provide clean water and clean energy from abundantly available renewable resources. This review focuses primarily on new insights into osmotic membrane transport mechanisms and on novel membranes and draw solutions that are currently being developed. Furthermore, the effects of operating conditions on the overall performance of osmotic membranes will be highlighted and future perspectives will be presented.

  6. The Role of Cis-Lunar Space in Future Global Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobskill, Marianne R.; Lupisella, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    Cis-lunar space offers affordable near-term opportunities to help pave the way for future global human exploration of deep space, acting as a bridge between present missions and future deep space missions. While missions in cis-lunar space have value unto themselves, they can also play an important role in enabling and reducing risk for future human missions to the Moon, Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs), Mars, and other deep space destinations. The Cis-Lunar Destination Team of NASA's Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) has been analyzing cis-lunar destination activities and developing notional missions (or "destination Design Reference Missions" [DRMs]) for cis-lunar locations to inform roadmap and architecture development, transportation and destination elements definition, operations, and strategic knowledge gaps. The cis-lunar domain is defined as that area of deep space under the gravitational influence of the earth-moon system. This includes a set of earth-centered orbital locations in low earth orbit (LEO), geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), highly elliptical and high earth orbits (HEO), earth-moon libration or "Lagrange" points (E-ML1 through E-ML5, and in particular, E-ML1 and E-ML2), and low lunar orbit (LLO). To help explore this large possibility space, we developed a set of high level cis-lunar mission concepts in the form of a large mission tree, defined primarily by mission duration, pre-deployment, type of mission, and location. The mission tree has provided an overall analytical context and has helped in developing more detailed design reference missions that are then intended to inform capabilities, operations, and architectures. With the mission tree as context, we will describe two destination DRMs to LEO and GEO, based on present human space exploration architectural considerations, as well as our recent work on defining mission activities that could be conducted with an EML1 or EML2 facility, the latter of which will be an emphasis of this

  7. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  8. Global change and modern coral reefs: New opportunities to understand shallow-water carbonate depositional processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallock, Pamela

    2005-04-01

    Human activities are impacting coral reefs physically, biologically, and chemically. Nutrification, sedimentation, chemical pollution, and overfishing are significant local threats that are occurring worldwide. Ozone depletion and global warming are triggering mass coral-bleaching events; corals under temperature stress lose the ability to synthesize protective sunscreens and become more sensitive to sunlight. Photo-oxidative stress also reduces fitness, rendering reef-building organisms more susceptible to emerging diseases. Increasing concentration of atmospheric CO 2 has already reduced CaCO 3 saturation in surface waters by more than 10%. Doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration over pre-industrial concentration in the 21st century may reduce carbonate production in tropical shallow marine environments by as much as 80%. As shallow-water reefs decline worldwide, opportunities abound for researchers to expand understanding of carbonate depositional systems. Coordinated studies of carbonate geochemistry with photozoan physiology and calcification, particularly in cool subtropical-transition zones between photozoan-reef and heterotrophic carbonate-ramp communities, will contribute to understanding of carbonate sedimentation under environmental change, both in the future and in the geologic record. Cyanobacteria are becoming increasingly prominent on declining reefs, as these microbes can tolerate strong solar radiation, higher temperatures, and abundant nutrients. The responses of reef-dwelling cyanobacteria to environmental parameters associated with global change are prime topics for further research, with both ecological and geological implications.

  9. Water resources conservation and nitrogen pollution reduction under global food trade and agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Liu, Yu; Kummu, Matti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Liu, Junguo; Schulin, Rainer

    2018-01-01

    Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We

  10. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

  11. Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate

  12. Past, Present and Future use of Municipal Water and Freshwater Resources of the Bekkersdal Community, Westonaria, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone L. Liefferink

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Water is a human right which is recognised globally, with an increasing focus being placed on the ethical considerations of water use. The paper focuses on investigating access and perceptions surrounding this basic need in the Bekkersdal community and the Wonderfonteinspruit, in the Gauteng Province, South Africa. It is hypothesised that several challenges exist both internally and externally in the process of ensuring the right to water in Bekkersdal, from both an environmental and service provision perspective. Through the use of a questionnaire conducted with a statistically representative group from the Bekkersdal community, the following issues were investigated: current water use of municipal and river water, challenges regarding water availability and quality, perceptions regarding the state of the Wonderfonteinspruit and future water use wants and needs. The results indicate a strong reliance on municipal water complicated with water service delivery issues, which resulted in 10% of the residents making use of the polluted Wonderfonteinspruit on a regular basis. Furthermore, the need for solutions to water supply and availability solutions should be developed in conjunction with community members. This research represents some of the first steps that need to be taken to do so.

  13. Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

  14. Making C4 crops more water efficient under current and future climate: Tradeoffs between carbon gain and water loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, V.; Pignon, C.

    2017-12-01

    C4 plants have a carbon concentrating mechanism that has evolved under historically low CO2 concentrations of around 200 ppm. However, increases in global CO2 concentrations in recent times (current CO2 concentrations are at 400 ppm and it is projected to be 550 ppm by mid-century) have diminished the relative advantage of C4 plants over C3 plants, which lack the expensive carbon concentrating machinery. Here we show by employing model simulations that under pre-historic CO2 concentrations, C4 plants are near optimal in their stomatal behavior and nitrogen partitioning between carbon concentrating machinery and carboxylation machinery, and they are significantly supra-optimal under current and future elevated CO2 concentrations. Model simulations performed at current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm show that, under high light conditions, decreasing stomatal conductance by 20% results in a 15% increase in water use efficiency with negligible loss in photosynthesis. Under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm, a 40% decrease in stomatal conductance produces a 35% increase in water use efficiency. Furthermore, stomatal closure is shown to be more effective in decreasing whole canopy transpiration compared to canopy top leaf transpiration, since shaded leaves are more supra-optimal than sunlit leaves. Model simulations for optimizing nitrogen distribution in C4 leaves show that under high light conditions, C4 plants over invest in carbon concentrating machinery and under invest in carboxylation machinery. A 20% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 10% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under current CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm. Similarly, a 40% redistribution in leaf nitrogen results in a 15% increase in leaf carbon assimilation without significant increases in transpiration under future elevated CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm. Our model optimality simulations show that C4 leaves a supra optimal in their

  15. Global and Domestic Trends ``Imperil'' Future U.S. Science Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    The U.S. science and engineering workforce of the future ``is imperiled'' by increased global competition for talent and by flat or reduced domestic student interest in the physical sciences and other areas, according to a 19 November report by the U.S. National Science Board (NSB). Citing U.S. census data, the report indicates that the percentage of the foreign-born who are filling U.S. science and engineering occupations has risen sharply, from 14% in 1990 to 22% in 2000. Awards of doctorates to the foreign-born jumped from 24% to 28%, while those with master's degrees increased from 19% to 29%, and the bachelor's degree share rose from 11% to 17%. The census data reflects immigration patterns and the numbers of foreign specialists working in the U.S. with visas.

  16. A global overview of biotech (GM) crops: adoption, impact and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Clive

    2010-01-01

    In the early 1990s, some were skeptical that genetically modified (GM) crops, now referred to as biotech crops, could deliver improved products and make an impact at the farm level. There was even more skepticism that developing countries would adopt biotech crops. The adoption of and commercialization of biotech crops in 2008 is reviewed. The impact of biotech crops are summarized including their contribution to: global food, feed and fiber security; a safer environment; a more sustainable agriculture; and the alleviation of poverty, and hunger in the developing countries of the world. Future prospects are discussed. Notably, Egypt planted Bt maize for the first time in 2008 thereby becoming the first country in the Arab world to commercialize biotech crops.

  17. Global INET 2012: Meeting at the Crossroads: Imagining the future Internet

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    The Internet Society, the world's trusted independent source of leadership for Internet policy and technology standards, celebrates its 20th anniversary this year in Geneva.   Global INET 2012 will take place at the CICG on 22-24 April to discuss the topics and challenges that will shape the future of the Internet.  This is an excellent opportunity to meet, network with and learn from top Internet technologists, policymakers, business executives and other individuals from around the globe. The conference boasts a programme of over 50 speakers and panelists, all offering their insights into topics such as Internet governance, law, ecosystems, intellectual property, social networking and the link between the Internet and economic transformation. Panelists include Slim Amamou, Lynn St Amour, Vint Cerf, Lesley Cowley, Steve Crocker, Dr. Leonard Kleinrock, and co-founder of the Campus Party Paco Ragageles, as well as CERN Director-G...

  18. Water challenges of the future; how scientific understanding can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, G.

    2012-04-01

    Demands for water resources are diverse and are increasing as human populations grow and become more concentrated in urban areas and as economies develop. Water is essential for many uses including the basic human needs of food and the maintenance of good health, for many industries and the creation of electrical energy and as vital for the sustenance of the natural ecosystems on which all life is dependent. At the same time threats from water - floods, droughts - are increasing with these extreme events becoming more common and more intense in many regions of the world and as more people locate in flood- and drought-prone regions. In general, the challenges for water managers are thus becoming greater; managers not only are having to make increasingly difficult decisions regarding allocation of water resources between competing uses as demand outstrips supply, but they also have to take measures to protect societies from the ravages of extreme events. The intensity of the challenges facing water managers is not uniform throughout the world - many nations in the less developed world experiencing far greater problems than most highly developed nations - but the trend towards greater challenges is clear. Decision-makers, whether at the international, national, provincial or local level benefit from reliable information on water resources. They need information on the availability in quantity and quality of water from a variety of sources - surface waters, aquifers or from artificial sources such as re-cycling of wastewater and desalination techniques. Managers also need reliable predictions on water availability for the various uses to which water is put - such predictions are needed on time scales from weeks to decades to inform decision-making. Predictions are also needed on the probabilities of occurrence of extreme events. Thus hydrological scientists developing predictive models and working within a fast-changing world have much to contribute to the needs of

  19. A matter of prior knowledge: Canadian young children’s conceptions about the future in the global community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ottilia Chareka

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given by children in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior knowledge, in this case, prior knowledge of global issues, holds for effective teaching and learning about global issues. Canadian children were optimistic about the future for themselves and their community but less so for the globe. More so than other children, Canadian children were concerned with issues of social justice, issues such as discrimination and racism, and with improving the environment, which might be attributed to the emphasis that is placed on these issues in their school curriculum. Assessing prior knowledge should be a priority for those considering development and implementation of global education curricula.

  20. A matter of prior knowledge: Canadian young children’s conceptions about the future in the global community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ottilia CHAREKA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Young Canadian boys and girls aged nine to eleven were asked to consider their personal futures, the future of their community and the future of the world. Mixed methods were employed for data collection and analysis. Responses were compared with those given bychildren in eight countries and the discussion focused on the importance prior knowledge, in this case, prior knowledge of global issues, holds for effective teaching and learning about global issues. Canadian children were optimistic about the future for themselves and their community but less so for the globe. More so than other children, Canadian children were concerned with issues of social justice, issues such as discrimination and racism, and withimproving the environment, which might be attributed to the emphasis that is placed on these issues in their school curriculum. Assessing prior knowledge should be a priority for those considering development and implementation of global education curricula.

  1. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world’s river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we

  2. Hybrid Analysis of Blue Water Consumption and Water Scarcity Implications at the Global, National, and Basin Levels in an Increasingly Globalized World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ranran; Zimmerman, Julie

    2016-05-17

    As the fifth global water footprint assessment, this study enhanced previous estimates of national blue water consumption (including fresh surface and groundwater) and main economic activities with (1) improved spatial and sectoral resolution and (2) quantified the impacts of virtual water trade on water use and water stress at both the national and basin level. In 2007, 1194 Gm(3) of blue water was consumed globally for human purposes. The consuming (producing) of primary and manufactured goods and services from the sectors of "Primary Crops and Livestock", "Primary Energy and Minerals", "Processed Food and Beverages", "Non-food Manufactured Products", "Electricity", "Commercial and Public Services", and "Households" accounted for 33% (91%), ∼ 0% (1%), 37% (water consumption, respectively. The considerable differences in sectoral water consumption accounted for by the two perspectives (consumption- vs production-based) highlight the significance of the water consumed indirectly, upstream in the supply chain (i.e., > 70% of total blue water consumption) while offering additional insights into the water implications of critical interconnected economic activities, such as the water-energy nexus. With 145 Gm(3) (12%) of the blue water consumption embedded in the goods and services traded internationally, 89 countries analyzed were net blue water importers at the national level. On the basin level, the impacts of virtual water trade on water stress were statistically significant for basins across the world and within 104 countries; virtual water trade mitigated water stress for the basins within 85 of the 104 countries, including all of those where there are moderate and greater water stress countrywide (except Italy).

  3. Advances in high temperature water chemistry and future issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millett, P.J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper traces the development of advances in high temperature water chemistry with emphasis in the field of nuclear power. Many of the water chemistry technologies used in plants throughout the world today would not have been possible without the underlying scientific advances made in this field. In recent years, optimization of water chemistry has been accomplished by the availability of high temperature water chemistry codes such as MULTEQ. These tools have made the science of high temperature chemistry readily accessible for engineering purposes. The paper closes with a discussion of what additional scientific data and insights must be pursued in order to support the further development of water chemistry technologies for the nuclear industry. (orig.)

  4. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

    Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

  5. The Future of the Nation-state in an Era of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Suter

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article uses the scenario planning technique to examine the future of the current nation-state system. Scenario 1: “Steady State” argues that despite all the talk of global governance, the basic nation-state structure will remain; it may have its problems but it is the best of the options. Scenario 2: “World State” is based on there being no purely national solutions to transnational problems, and so governments have to work together through some form of global governance to solve common problems. Scenario 3: “Earth Inc.” suggests that national governments lose control over their countries and transnational corporations fill the vacuum; with the decline of the nation-state, the only organizations capable of driving the pace of change are transnational corporations, which then knit the world together into one market as they fill the governmental vacuum. Scenario 4: “Wild State” suggests that national governments lose control over their countries and there is no organization to fill the vacuum and so there is increasing chaos; this is the “nightmare” scenario, in which nation-states fall apart, there is an increase in “failed states”, mass movements of peoples and increasing environmental and health problems. These are scenarios—and not predictions as such. There are many signs of the world moving to “Wild State”. There needs to be a greater sense of urgency to confront the globe’s looming problems.

  6. Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Akbar; Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and aims The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase. Key facts Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase. Projections This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia. PMID:23304431

  7. Human response to environmental change in the perspective of future, global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butzer, Karl W.

    1983-05-01

    Human response to severe environmental stress is conceived and implemented by individuals, but must be approved by the group. These decisions are made with respect to perceived circumstances. Societies are enmeshed within adaptive systems that provide a matrix of opportunities and constraints for a wide range of potential behavioral variability. Such systems repeatedly readjust to short-term crises, e.g., droughts, but persistent and severe environmental stress may require substantial revision of adaptive strategies. The Sahel drought of 1968-1973 is an example of a brief but severe crisis, recurring along the Saharan margins perhaps once every 30 years. Closer inspection shows links between intensified intertribal warfare and ecological stress in the lower Omo Valley. The decline of the Egyptian New Kingdom during the 12th century B.C., in response to economic stagnation, sociopolitical instability, dynastic weakness, foreign pressures, and poor Nile floods over 50-70 years, represents a more complex and fundamental modification, with systemic simplification lasting 450 years. Such insights can be applied to future, global climatic change due to increasing atmospheric CO 2. Simulation and paleoclimatic experience suggest a drier climate for the North American and Soviet breadbaskets, to threaten world food supplies at a time of maximum demographic pressures and declining resources. Public perception and remedial planning should receive the attention of Quaternary scientists, in order to preempt an involuntary, global, systemic simplification.

  8. The New Normal in Russia and China: Between Past Embedded Structures and Future Global Dominance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon I. Cohen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The new normal is a conceptual situation where economic and political agents are economically convinced and politically motivated to adapt to temporary austerity in economic growth and political participation. The concept entails a remarkable and rare mix of economics and politics. The alternative is to actively plan towards changing the underlying benchmark. Focusing on Russia and China, the paper draws on results from two studies that reflect on underlying weak and strong links in the two benchmark economies. One study examines the tendency and causes for slow growth and sticky distribution in Russia, when compared to China, making use of social accounting matrix multipliers. The Russian weak tendencies are partly due to structural imbalances inherited from the past economy with its state-led and parallel shadow counterparts. The other study looks forward into the future and examines Russian and Chinese prospects for leading roles and their relative influence potential in the global economy. The study makes use of a dominance index composed of the relative sizes of transforming agents (i.e. population and transformed value (i.e. GDP. Results for Russia suggest that in a few decades global marginalization is imminent, unless agents and production change course and actively link and substantially integrate with other world blocs.

  9. Shaping the future or meeting the challenge? The federal constitutional proposals and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bankes, N.

    1991-01-01

    Recent Canadian federal constitutional proposals, presented in a report entitled Shaping Canada's Future Together, have the objective of establishing the basis for a federation capable of confronting global economic, security, and environmental challenges through the 21st century. Global solutions to these problems, such as the warming caused by the greenhouse effect, must be applied by each country. The proposals are evaluated according to the support they give the federal government in the negotiation and execution of an international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions. It is concluded that compared to other jurisdictions, the Canadian government is particularly badly equipped for carrying out such a task with regard to the present distribution of powers. The proposals do not aid to resolve this problem and even aggravate it in some instances. For example, a proposal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions or impose cutbacks by a system of marketable emission permits would in effect create a new set of property and civil rights in the provinces. Implementing such a set of rights would have to be done in cooperation with the provinces, which would be difficult, and if implemented, it would entrench a laissez-faire approach to economics which would not always serve the goal of environmental protection. 18 refs

  10. Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, J. M.; Lassaletta, L.; Beusen, A. H. W.; van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Westhoek, H.; Bouwman, A. F.

    2018-04-01

    Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr‑1 in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr‑1). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions.

  11. Confronting ecological futures: global environmental crises in contemporary survival quests for young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Hammer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines representations of societal concern in the futuristic ecological disaster fictions of three British authors: Julie Bertagna (Exodus; Zenith, Jan Mark (Riding Tycho; Voyager and Marcus Sedgwick Floodland. The depicted refugee journeys in these futuristic worlds speak into a growing global disquiet that surrounds current historic events. Environmental crises that ground the emergent world orders of depicted future societies set the scene in each coming of age frame: each survival quest embeds social and cultural issues recognisable to contemporary audiences in futuristic representations of changed world orders, limited resources, and isolated communities. Authors resist the mythic frame of a traditional quest journey − a call to journey, the engagement with growth through a road of trials and then celebrations in a return to home territory: their conclusions offer limited resolutions, the struggle to survive entrenched as a linear path. Because authors link depictions of the refugee subject with environmental degradation, apocalyptic scenarios that signify the devastating consequences of global environmental crises provide an ecocritical platform from which each author situates a discourse of protest. Interrogating contemporary political positions of ambiguity and denial their novels profile social justice issues experienced by refugee populations in contemporary society.

  12. Current Status and Future Perspective in the Globalization of Traditional Chinese Medicines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan-Ying Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization of traditional Chinese medicines started around 1996, which was initiated by the Chinese government. However, substantial progress was only achieved in recent years including the adoption of TCM quality monographs in the western pharmacopoeias (United States Pharmacopoeia and European Pharmacopoeia and registration in main stream drug regulatory agencies such as US Food and Drug Administration (FDA and European Medicines Agency (EMA. So far, several TCM herbal quality monographs were adopted by the United States Pharmacopoeia including Chinese Salvia, Ganoderma lucidum and Panax notoginseng, etc. Over 45 TCM quality monographs were recorded in the European Pharmacopoeia with 20 more in progress. After the successful registration of the first TCM product named Diao Xin Xue Kang as traditional medicine via the Medicines Evaluation Board of the Netherlands, several other TCM herbal products are in the registration process in several European member states. So far, there has been still not any TCM product authorized as a drug by the FDA regardless of a few TCM products in phase III or phase II clinical trials. This review summarizes the progress made in the globalization of traditional Chinese medicines in recent years and future issues in this regard.

  13. ED51: Using International Networks to Develop the Future Global Geoscience Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, E. E.; Pangman, P.; Jacobs, R. L.

    2011-12-01

    Developed nations face the immediate need to replace the current wave of retiring geoscientists at the same time developing nations need to build an infrastructure to train future geoscientists. But what does a successful geoscientist look like? Recruiters seem to favor candidates from respected universities that pair applied book knowledge with excellent communication skills and the ability to take a multidisciplinary approach to challenges. Students should be global thinking, business minded, and socially aware. The Society of Exploration Geophysicists as a successful global society addresses the needs of a growing diverse membership through an international approach. Student membership has doubled over the past five years to almost 10,000. The Society is building momentum through targeted, yet diverse programs. Students are eager to participate in the unique SEG/Chevron Student Leadership Symposium, SEG/ExxonMobil Student Education Program, Challenge Bowls, Student Expositions, Honorary Lecturer presentations and related events. These are transformative educational opportunities that provide the impetus for expanded and very effective international networking and transfer of knowledge. As SEG's students build on these relationships and newly acquired leadership skills, they affect the scope and breadth of SEG Student Chapter activities. There has been a resulting increase in multi-country field camps. The Geoscientists Without Borders° humanitarian program provides cross-cultural field opportunities that demonstrate how applied geoscience can make a difference in the global society, while providing students with valuable workforce skills that employers seek. These collaborative efforts are facilitated by social media and on-line communities that cause boundaries to dissolve and time zones to become irrelevant.

  14. Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Lo Porto, Antonio; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

    2015-08-01

    There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

  15. Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M.; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A.; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Porto, Antonio Lo; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J.; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

    2015-08-01

    There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60 % by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

  16. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  17. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Wisser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  18. The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment; MNV

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to

  19. Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S

    2018-02-12

    Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

  20. Drinking water while fracking: now and in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, Susan L

    2015-01-01

    The data provided by the PA DEP are incomplete because confidential data are not released. It is impossible to make firm conclusions about water quality impacts when data availability is limited. Nonetheless, the PA experience appears to be characterized by a low rate of problems per gas well or unit of gas produced. Only about 160 of the complaints from homeowners about groundwater to the PA DEP between 2008 and 2012 were problems attributed to oil and gas activity—and only half of these were caused by companies known to drill unconventional shale wells. These problematic wells in turn represent only 0.1 to 1% of the unconventional shale gas wells drilled in that time period (Brantley et al. 2014). Management practices appear to be improving as well; the rate of problems has decreased since 2010 (Figure 1). Apparently, however, the public responds not only to the number of problems per gas well or per unit of gas produced but rather to the number of problems per unit time and per unit area. Thus, even though the r ate of problems with shale gas wells has remained small on a per well basis, pushback has grown in areas of increasing density of drilling and fracking. This may be especially true when consequences are fearsome such as flaming tapwater, toxic contamination, or earthquakes. It is natural that the social license for shale gas development is influenced by short-term, local thinking. But, such thinking may not be helpful given that Marcellus Shale gas wells generate one third the waste per unit volume of gas as compared to conventional shallow gas wells (Vidic et al. 2013). In addition, the release of pollutants such as carbon dioxide, particulates, mercury, nitrogen, and sulfur generated per unit of heat energy is lower f or unconventional shale gas than for fuels such as coal (Heath et al. 2014). Public pushback could nonetheless be a blessing. After all, pushback represents intensified interest in environmental issues. This interest may be seen in the