WorldWideScience

Sample records for global warming impacting

  1. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  2. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  3. Global warming potential impact of bioenergy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, L.; Wenzel, H.

    environmental consequences related to land use changes. In this study the global warming potential impact associated with six alternative bioenergy systems based on willow and Miscanthus was assessed by means of life-cycle assessment. The results showed that bioenergy production may generate higher global...... warming impacts than the reference fossil fuel system, when the impacts from indirect land use changes are accounted for. In a life-cycle perspective, only highly-efficient co-firing with fossil fuel achieved a (modest) GHG emission reduction....

  4. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  5. The impacts and costs of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyre, N.J.

    1991-01-01

    There is now a scientific consensus that current rates of accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere will result in significant global warming and climate change. These changes are likely to have important impacts on a wide range of human activities and the natural environment. There has now been a considerable weight of literature published on the impacts of global warming, much of it very recent. This report seeks to summarise the important results, to analyse the uncertainties and to make a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of monetarising these environmental costs. The impacts of global warming are divided into ten major categories: agriculture, forests and forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, hydrology and water resources, sea level rise and coastal zones, energy, infrastructure/transport/industry, human health and air quality, oceans, and cryospheric impacts. The results of major summary reports are analysed, notably the report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). (author)

  6. Impact of Global Warming on Flora and Fauna

    OpenAIRE

    , A. Srivastava; , S. Srivastav

    2011-01-01

    The paper, illustrated with graphs, discusses the impact of global warming on şora & fauna, its underlying causes, and attempts to trim down it with the collaboration of all individuals. The paper relates that, as an outcome of global warming, climate changes have reached anomalous levels with rainfall and hurricanes of unusual intensity. Everyday gases such as carbon dioxide are released to warm the earth, allowing it to be a place that can be inhabited by şora & fauna. Howev...

  7. What do global warming impacts really mean to U.S. industry?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bendel, W.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper will explore real-world impacts that global warming could have on US industry. The question of dealing with global warming is, to some extent, an exercise in probability or relative risk management. The difficult part is separating fact from fiction. There is another issue that arises in this intense debate regarding impacts on business and policy. This is the question of whether the impacts are real or only perceived. As the authors have been seen in several environmental situations, the difference between a real or perceived impact can be academic, since a perceived risk often produces real impacts. This paper presents a discussion on what companies can and should do to minimize the perceived risk of global warming on their bottom lines. That is, the basic question is, how can businesses today manage this risk so that objective business decisions can be made? Problems that could be directly or indirectly embedded in the global warming controversy are examined. These include financial, engineering, and international aspects of global climate change. This discussion will include possible impacts on the utility, agricultural, insurance, and financial industries

  8. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  9. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

    2016-01-01

    Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for

  10. Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuichi Kano

    Full Text Available Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more

  11. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  12. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jin; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conversion technologies, crop residue gasification has been regarded as promising owing to its higher energy efficiency than that of direct combustion. However, prior to large-scale application of crop residue gasification, the lifetime environmental performance should be investigated to shed light on sustainable strategies. As traditional static life cycle assessment (LCA) does not include temporal information for dynamic processes, we proposed a dynamic life cycle assessment approach, which improves the static LCA approach by considering time-varying factors, e.g., greenhouse gas characterization factors and energy intensity. As the gasification project can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) discharge compared with traditional direct fuel combustion, trade-offs between the benefits of global warming mitigation and the impact on global warming of crop residue gasification should be considered. Therefore, indicators of net global warming mitigation benefit and global warming impact mitigation period are put forward to justify the feasibility of the crop residue gasification project. The proposed dynamic LCA and indicators were then applied to estimate the life cycle global warming impact of a crop residue gasification system in China. Results show that the crop residue gasification project has high net global warming mitigation benefit and a short global warming impact mitigation period, indicating its prominent potential in alleviating global warming impact. During

  13. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  14. Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, Hans A

    2008-01-01

    This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.

  15. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  16. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  17. Likely impact of global warming on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topping, J.

    1992-01-01

    Over the last couple of years there has been mounting evidence that the human costs of rapid global warming are likely to be concentrated especially in developing countries and that some countries may be gravely affected. Climate impacts research has until recently been focused principally on a handful of more affluent countries, but studies of climate impacts on developing countries are now under way and preliminary results are likely to be available for many areas of the world within the next year

  18. Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

    2011-02-01

    To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

  19. Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

    2013-01-01

    Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

  20. Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

  1. Global warming's impact on the performance of GSHP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Nordell, Bo [Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleaa University of Technology, SE-97187 Luleaa (Sweden)

    2011-05-15

    Since heating and cooling systems of buildings consume 30-50% of the global energy consumption, increased efficiency of such systems means a considerable reduction in energy consumption. Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) are likely to play a central role in achieving this goal due to their high energy efficient performance. The efficiency of GSHP depends on the ground temperature, heating and cooling demands, and the distribution of heating and cooling over the year. However, all of these are affected by the ongoing climatic change. Consequently, global warming has direct effects on the GSHP performance. Within the framework of current study, heating and cooling demands of a reference building were calculated for different global warming scenarios in different climates i.e. cold, mild and hot climate. The prime energy required to drive the GSHP system is compared for each scenario and two configurations of ground heat exchangers. Current study shows that the ongoing climatic change has significant impact on GSHP systems. (author)

  2. The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurane, Ichiro

    2010-12-01

    Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

  3. Quantifying impacts of nitrogen use in European agriculture on global warming potential.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de W.; Kros, J.; Reinds, G.J.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper summarizes current knowledge on the impacts of changes of nitrogen (Nr) use in agriculture on the global warming potential (GWP) by its impact on carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from agricultural and terrestrial nonagricultural systems and from

  4. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  5. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  6. The regions and global warming: Impacts and response strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    To date, much of the attention given to global warming in scientific research as well as in policy development has focused on the global picture. International negotiations and agreements to stabilize, and eventually reduce, greenhouse gas emissions are very important. By themselves, however, they are not sufficient to address global warming. Regional strategies are also needed. They can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and they will be the most effective way to mitigate the consequences of global warming. Adaptive strategies must respond to local and regional conditions. In many countries, subnational jurisdictions such as states and provinces or community organizations can already take effective actions without direction from their national government or waiting for international agreements. An important factor in defining regional approaches is the disparate consequences of climate change for developed and developing areas. Different strategies will also be needed for industrial and agricultural regions. Wealthy industrial regions may be better able to develop capital-intensive, adaptive infrastructure than regions with fewer discretionary resources where people are more vulnerable to the vagaries of weather patterns. On the other hand, regions that rely on indigenous knowledge and local resources may be better equipped to make incremental adaptations and more willing to modify life-styles. Ultimately, all climate change effects are experienced in specific places and effective response depends upon local action. We recognize that individual localities cannot solve a problem of global proportions by acting alone. However, a regional strategy can supplement international and national action and be the focal point for addressing risks in the unique social and economic context of a particular area. These meetings discussions dealt with the impacts and implications of climate change on such things as agriculture, forestry, and policy

  7. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  8. Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, S.K.; Fairchild, P.D.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are used in a number of applications, and volumes of CFCs used grew at a tremendous pace during the 1960s and 1970s. However, in the mid-1980s, it was confirmed that these extremely useful chemicals contribute to the destruction of stratospheric ozone. These chemicals are being phased out of use rapidly to protect the ozone layer and it is very important that the replacements for CFSs do not result in a net increase in global warming by introducing less efficient processes that lead to higher energy use and increased carbon dioxide emissions. A study was conducted to identify those alternative chemicals and technologies that could replace CFCs in energy related applications before the year 2000, and to assess the total potential impact of these alternatives on global warming. The analysis for this project included an estimate of the direct effects from the release of blowing agents, refrigerants, and solvents into the atmosphere and the indirect effects in the form of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy use for commercial and residential heating and cooling, household and commercial refrigeration, building and automobile air-conditioning, and general metal and electronics solvent cleaning. The discussion in this paper focuses on those aspects of the study relevant to refrigeration and air-conditioning. In general the use of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) alternatives for CFCs lead to large and sometimes dramatic reduction in total equivalent warming impact (TEWI), lifetime equivalent CO 2 emission. Most of the reductions result from decreased direct effects without significant changes in energy use. 3 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  9. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  10. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  11. Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiao

    2018-04-01

    In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

  12. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  13. Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-26

    Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

  14. Global warming-setting the stages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

  15. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  16. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  17. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  18. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  19. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz

    2017-01-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between

  20. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Synergistic impacts of global warming on the resilience of coral reefs

    OpenAIRE

    Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent epizootics have removed important functional species from Caribbean coral reefs and left communities vulnerable to alternative attractors. Global warming will impact reefs further through two mechanisms. A chronic mechanism reduces coral calcification, which can result in depressed somatic growth. An acute mechanism, coral bleaching, causes extreme mortality when sea temperatures become anomalously high. We ask how these two mechanisms interact in driving future reef state (coral cover...

  2. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  3. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-05-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a

  4. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for

  5. Global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies: Combining fluorocarbon and CO2 effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are on their way out, due to their role in stratospheric ozone depletion and the related international Montreal Protocol agreement and various national phaseout timetables. As the research, engineering development, and manufacturing investment decisions have ensued to prepare for this transition away from CFCs, the climate change issue has emerged and there has recently been increased attention on the direct global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, there has been less focus on the indirect global warming effect arising from end-use energy changes and associated CO 2 emissions. A study was undertaken to address these combined global warming effects. A concept of Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) was developed for combining the direct and indirect effects and was used for evaluating CFC-replacement options available in the required CFC transition time frame. Analyses of industry technology surveys indicate that CFC-user industries have made substantial progress toward near-equal energy efficiency with many HCFC/HFC alternatives. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the direct effect in many applications and stress energy efficiency when searching for suitable CFC alternatives. For chillers, household refrigerators, and unitary air-conditioning or heat pump equipment, changes in efficiency of only 2--5% would have a greater effect on future TEWI than completely eliminating the direct effect

  6. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

  7. Introduction of nuclear power plant for mitigating the impact of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ida Nuryatin Finahari

    2008-01-01

    Energy utilization for power plants in Indonesia is still highly depending on the burning of fossil fuel like coal, oil, and gas. From the combustion of fossil fuel, greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and N 2 O are produced. An increase of CO 2 gas emission to the atmosphere can block the heat loss from the earth surface and will increase the greenhouse effect that results in the temperature increase of the earth surface (global warming). Global warming can cause a very extreme climate change on earth. One of the solutions to reduce CO 2 gas emission produced by fossil fuel power plants is to utilize the plants with flue gas treatment facility. At such facility, CO 2 gas is reacted with certain mineral based substances thus can be used as base material in food-, pharmaceutical-, construction-, and cosmetic industry. Another alternative to reduce CO 2 gas emission is by replacing fossil fuel power plants with nuclear power plants. Considering the environmental and economic aspects, the nuclear power plant does not emit CO 2 gas, so that the use of nuclear power plant can mitigate the impact of global warming. Based on the operational experience of nuclear power plants in advanced countries, the cost of generating electricity from nuclear power plants is more competitive than that of fossil fuel power plant. (author)

  8. A matter of degrees: A primer on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    A primer on global warming is presented in order to provide information to Canadians on making environmentally responsible decisions. The fundamentals of natural climate change, the atmospheric environment, factors that influence climate, and the greenhouse effect are explained. Global warming is then discussed with reference to paleoclimatic research, the influence of human activity on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and predictions of future climates. The possible impacts of global warming on Canada are described for such sectors as forests, fisheries, agriculture, sea levels, health, energy supply and demand, and the Arctic regions. The actions that citizens and governments can take in order to mitigate or adapt to global warming are then presented. A glossary and index are included. 55 refs., 17 figs

  9. Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S; Wu, G

    2010-12-01

    Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. Global warming and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonand, Frederic

    2015-01-01

    The macro-economic impacts of climate change and of policies to reduce carbon content should be moderate on a global basis for the planet - a few hundredths of a % of world GDP on an annual basis, but significant for some regions (Asia-Pacific notably). The probability of extreme climatic events justifies with effect from today the implementation of measures that will carry a cost in order to limit global warming. (author)

  11. Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

    2015-01-01

    The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

  12. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  13. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  14. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

    2018-05-13

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of

  15. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  16. Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E

    1999-01-01

    The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

  17. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  18. Studies of global warming and global energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inaba, Atsushi

    1993-01-01

    Global warming caused by increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been the focus of many recent global energy studies. CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. This means that global warming is fundamentally a problem of the global energy system. An analysis of the findings of recent global energy studies is made in this report. The results are categorized from the viewpoint of concern about global warming. The analysis includes energy use and CO 2 emissions, measures taken to restrain CO 2 emissions and the cost of such measure, and suggestions for long term global energy generation. Following this comparative analysis, each of the studies is reviewed in detail. (author) 63 refs

  19. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  20. Greenhouse gases and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

  1. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  2. Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya. Impacts and adaptations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane [School of Economics, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197, 00100, Nairobi (Kenya)

    2009-05-15

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. (author)

  3. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

  4. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  5. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches

  6. New electric technologies to reduce global warming impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtright, H.A.

    1994-01-01

    Advanced electric technologies hold significant potential to reduce global warming impact through reduction of primary fuel needed to power end-use applications. These reductions can occur in two forms: (1) reduced kilowatt-hour usage and power plant emissions through efficiency improvements and technological enhancements of existing electrically-driven applications; (2) the development of new electric technologies to replace traditional fossil-fuel driven applications which can result in less overall primary energy consumption and lower overall emissions. Numerous new electric technologies are presently being developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. The technologies reviewed in this paper include: Microwave Fabric Dryer, Advanced Heat Pumps, Heat Pump Water Heater, Infrared Sand Reclaimer, Freeze Concentration, Membrane Water Recovery, Microwave Petrochemical Production, Infrared Drying, and Electric Vehicles. Full commercialization of these technologies can result in significant energy savings and CO 2 reductions, in addition to improving the competitiveness of businesses using these technologies

  7. Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies for foam building insulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, S.K.; Fairchild, P.D.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS) have been used as blowing agents in foam insulation, as the working fluids in cooling and refrigeration equipment, and as solvents in general and precision cleaning applications since their introduction in the 1930s. The number of applications and volumes of CFCs used grew at a tremendous pace during the 1960s and 1970s, but in the mid-1980s it was confirmed that these extremely useful chemicals contribute to the destruction of stratospheric zone and that they are the primary cause of the CFCs have also been found to be second only to carbon dioxide as a factor causing increased greenhouse warming. These chemicals are being phased out of use rapidly to protect the ozone layer and it is very important that the replacements for CFCs do not result in a net increase in global warming by introducing less efficient processes that lead to higher energy use and increased carbon dioxide emissions. A study was conducted to identify those alternative chemicals and technologies that could replace CFCs in energy related applications before the year 2000, and to assess the total potential impact of those alternatives on global warming. The analysis for this project included an estimate of the direct effects from the release of blowing agents, refrigerants, and solvents into the atmosphere and the indirect effects of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy use for commercial and residential building insulation, household and commercial refrigeration, building and automobile air conditioning, and general metal and electronics solvent cleaning. This paper focuses on those aspects of the study relevant to building insulation. In general the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon alternatives for CFCs lead to large and sometimes dramatic reductions in total equivalent warming impact, lifetime equivalent C0 2 emissions (TEWI). Most of the reductions result from decreased direct effects without significant changes in energy use

  8. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  9. Using global warming potential to compare methane and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Greenhouse gases affect the planetary heat budget. Any change of their concentration affects this budget and therefore the global mean surface temperature of the Earth. These gases have different radiative properties and different lifetimes in the atmosphere, which prevents any direct comparison of the consequences of their emissions on global warming. Almost twenty years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed the global warming potential (GWP) as an index to compare the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. In a recent paper, it has been stated that the use of GWP leads to strongly underestimating the global warming due to constant methane emissions compared to that of constant CO 2 emissions. Here we show that it is not really the case. The GWP enables comparisons of global warming due to constant emissions for any prescribed period, 100 years being often used. But this comparison is not universal. For instance, the impact of methane is underestimated at the beginning of the chosen period while the impact of CO 2 is underestimated after this period

  10. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  11. Global warming from an energy perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, A.G.

    1991-01-01

    Global climate change and energy are integrally related. The majority of greenhouse gas emissions are the result of energy production and use; at the same time, warming will affect energy patterns in California through physical increases in energy demand, physical changes in energy supply, and changes in both energy end-use patterns and supplies resulting from climate-change policies. There seems to be a growing political consensus that the world (as well as the state) needs to act soon to minimize further commitment to future warming. While California is not likely to experience the physical changes resulting from a warmer climate for years or perhaps decades, policy responses to the warming issue may cause more immediate impacts. This chapter will discuss how policy response to potential warming may be the most significant early impact of the issue on California's energy system. Makers of energy policy face the dilemma of deciding how to respond to the climate warming issue in the face of scientific uncertainties about its timing and seriousness. The chapter will conclude by presenting a conceptual framework for dealing with this dilemma, along with general recommendations for action

  12. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  13. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  14. Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25671171

  15. Global warming and drainage development: perspective and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wrachien, De D.; Feddes, R.A.

    2004-01-01

    The report gives an overview of current and future (time horizon 2025) drainage developments around the world. Moreover, the paper analyses the results of four of the most advanced global circulation models for assessing the hydrological impact of global warming, due to the greenhouse effect, on the

  16. Global Warming and Its Health Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Rossati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

  17. Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossati, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

  18. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  19. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  20. A Comparative Study on the Impact of Global Warming of Applying Low Carbon Factor Concrete Products

    OpenAIRE

    Su-Hyun Cho; Chang-U Chae

    2015-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment techniques have been developed as a result of the worldwide efforts to reduce the environmental impact of global warming. By using the quantification method in the construction industry, it is now possible to manage the greenhouse gas is to systematically evaluate the impact on the environment over the entire construction process. In particular, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions at the production stage of construction material occu...

  1. Impacts of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise on Service Life of Chloride-Exposed Concrete Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jian Gao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will increase the rate of chloride ingress and the rate of steel corrosion of concrete structures. Furthermore, in coastal (atmospheric marine zones, sea level rise will reduce the distance of concrete structures from the coast and increase the surface chloride content. This study proposes a probabilistic model for analyzing the effects of global warming and sea level rise on the service life of coastal concrete structures. First, in the corrosion initiation stage, an improved chloride diffusion model is proposed to determine chloride concentration. The Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate the service life in the corrosion initiation stage; Second, in the corrosion propagation stage, a numerical model is proposed to calculate the rate of corrosion, probability of corrosion cracking, and service life. Third, overall service life is determined as the sum of service life in the corrosion initiation and corrosion propagation stages. After considering the impacts of global warming and sea level rise, the analysis results show that for concrete structures having a service life of 50 years, the service life decreases by about 5%.

  2. The present effect of global warming on U.S. industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bendel, W.B.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will discuss how global warming issues are currently affecting U.S. industry. Global climate models are projecting global temperature increases in the 1.5-4.5 degrees C range within the next 50-60 years. This increase is based on the assumption that CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere will continue to increase 1-2% per year, resulting in a doubling of preindustrial CO 2 levels by mid twenty-first century. These projections may cause U.S. industry to readjust its thinking with respect to the benefits of pollution prevention as they relate to global warming, corporate image enhancement, global competitiveness and risk assessment or balance. Real or perceived impacts of global warming are already influencing U.S. competitiveness within the global economy because Japan and the European countries are taking the global warming threat more seriously than is the U.S. Mitigation of CO 2 emissions through carbon taxes or permitting will be discussed. Options available to U.S. industry to deal with the current uncertainties of global warming will be presented. Examples of how specific companies are coping with this issue will be given. Finally, recommendations are presented for proactive planning to determine which segments, divisions or facilities in a multinational company would be most sensitive to CO 2 stabilization regulations

  3. A new international environmental order? An assessment of the impact of the global warming epistemic community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, H.A.

    1993-12-01

    Global warming is a problem which ignores national boundaries, making international cooperation essential. The role of epistemic communities, or those composed of professionals who share a commitment to a common causal model and a set of political values, in affecting the international response to the global warming problem is examined. It is claimed that the epistemic global warming community can affect the policy process, both domestically and internationally, and facilitate cooperation in an era of ecological interdependence. This claim is explored and eventually supported through the examination of two case studies: the responses of Canada and Britain to the issue of global warming between 1988 and November 1990. The case studies are supplemented with a more general discussion of the issues surrounding the international politics of global warming through the same period. Through these studies, it is found that a global warming community can be identified and that its efforts have played a significant role in framing the global warming issue. 121 refs

  4. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  5. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  6. Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Tami C

    2007-01-01

    'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

  7. Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donnelly, Chantal; Greuell, Wouter; Andersson, Jafet; Gerten, Dieter; Pisacane, Giovanna; Roudier, Philippe; Ludwig, Fulco

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate

  8. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  9. Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childers, Katelin

    2015-04-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

  10. National contributions to observed global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, H Damon; Graham, Tanya L; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J

    2014-01-01

    There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. (paper)

  11. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  12. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  13. Implications of global warming on human health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, R.K.; Syam, P.V.S.

    1997-01-01

    Due to the build up of green house gases in atmosphere, less heat escapes through the atmosphere promoting global warming. This may result in world wide droughts, sea-level rise inundating islands and coastal countries, cataclysmic hurricanes etc. Human health as a result of these changes, will be affected both physiologically and psychologically. Physiological effects may be more pronounced in cases occurring due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, food production amounts, water availability, etc. Psychological impact may be more in cases of catastrophes like floods, hurricanes or famine. In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight the implications of global warming on human health due to temperature change. Food production changes and ultra-violet radiation effects and cataclysmic disaster effects. (author)

  14. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  15. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B; Smith, Ward N; Desjardins, Raymond L; Worth, Devon E; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S

    2014-08-15

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Forests between global warming and local wood use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czeskleba-Dupont, Rolf

    2009-01-01

    The sustainability of extended energetic wood use in atmospheric burners is questioned because it accelerates global warming for decades and often intensifies local air pollution with serious health impacts. Forest developments in Denmark and Austria are compared, the latter including data...

  17. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

    1980-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

  18. Memo to US energy executives: Don't forget global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howes, J.A.

    1990-01-01

    This article warns executives of energy related companies and government policy makers to not be complacent regarding the impact of future global warming legislation. The author feels that those companies that take a minimum approach to meeting the requirements of the Clean Air Act may find themselves having to revise their approach in midstream to meet tougher global warming legislation requirements. The author approaches the issue as a challenge to the industry to compete in an increasingly environmentally-conscious worldwide market

  19. Surface reflectance and conversion efficiency dependence of technologies for mitigating global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, Ian [Solartran Pty Ltd., 12 Lentara St, Kenmore, Brisbane 4069 (Australia); Smith, Geoff [Physics and Advanced Materials, University of Technology, Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, New South Wales 2007 (Australia)

    2011-05-15

    A means of assessing the relative impact of different renewable energy technologies on global warming has been developed. All power plants emit thermal energy to the atmosphere. Fossil fuel power plants also emit CO{sub 2} which accumulates in the atmosphere and provides an indirect increase in global warming via the greenhouse effect. A fossil fuel power plant may operate for some time before the global warming due to its CO{sub 2} emission exceeds the warming due to its direct heat emission. When a renewable energy power plant is deployed instead of a fossil fuel power plant there may be a significant time delay before the direct global warming effect is less than the combined direct and indirect global warming effect from an equivalent output coal fired plant - the ''business as usual'' case. Simple expressions are derived to calculate global temperature change as a function of ground reflectance and conversion efficiency for various types of fossil fuelled and renewable energy power plants. These expressions are used to assess the global warming mitigation potential of some proposed Australian renewable energy projects. The application of the expressions is extended to evaluate the deployment in Australia of current and new geo-engineering and carbon sequestration solutions to mitigate global warming. Principal findings are that warming mitigation depends strongly on the solar to electric conversion efficiency of renewable technologies, geo-engineering projects may offer more economic mitigation than renewable energy projects and the mitigation potential of reforestation projects depends strongly on the location of the projects. (author)

  20. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  1. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  2. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  3. The physics and history of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yongyun

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is not only a hot research area in atmospheric sciences and even all Earth sciences but is also a controversial topic in the international community. The purpose of this paper is not to clarify these controversies, but instead, to address the physical basis on which our understanding of global warming is founded, and to briefly review the nearly 200-year history of global warming sciences. We hope the paper will help readers, who have no background in the atmospheric and climate sciences, understand scientific issues of global warming. (author)

  4. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON LIFE: LIFE ON EARTH FROM SINGLE-CELLULAR ORGANISMS TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANISMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kartikey Gupta [Grade X, Mayura School, Jaipur (India)

    2008-09-30

    Wherever we look, life can be seen...so many different forms of life, that is, uncountable varieties of animals and plants occupy the whole world today! But, where and how did it all start? The story of evolution is one of the most interesting theories ever put forward. It refers to - the way that simple and small living things eventually changed into much more functional and bigger beings, in course of time. Charles Darwin had explored this mystery, and had provided the reason- Evolution. Evolution is changing of life forms into more functional ones with respect to their changing environment. However, as odd as it may sound, evolution and extinction are closely linked. Because, the better evolved species survives, and throughout the timeline of evolution, there have been many extinction waves. They were all occurred naturally thus proving that the very process of extinction is natural. The earth has seen many variations of global temperature; it has suffered various ice ages, which had also many a times threatened to eradicate most life from the planet. But, every time life has found a way to go on. Therefore, whatever life we see today has resulted from the ongoing long process of evolution. After millions of years, finally we humans have come into existence, and today are the leading species of the world. But, we may possibly be very close to another major extinction wave, the root causes of which are both natural and man-made, but the part played by the latter is much more than the former. Global Warming has now started affecting all kinds of life on the planet, and it is our responsibility as the leading and most intellectual species to try to save our earth. A study reveals that 60% Indian people do not actually know about Global Warming, and that the number of youth aware of Global Warming and Its impacts are much more than the number of adults. About 75% Indians believe that it is the sole responsibility of the government to solve the problems related to

  5. An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

    OpenAIRE

    Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...

  6. US demilitarization and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, A.G.; Liston-Heyes, C.; Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, London

    1993-01-01

    In the paper input-output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the US federal budget. The impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous, and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed. The effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy-wide cuts in personal taxation and/or deficit reduction. In other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial. (author)

  7. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  8. Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla

    2015-06-01

    Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

  9. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  10. Anesthesia and global warming: the real hazards of theoretic science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mychaskiw II George

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent speculative articles in the medical literature have indicted certain inhalational anesthetics as contributing to global warming. This unfounded speculation may have deleterious patient impact

  11. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

  12. Identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the EU-25 economy using a multi-objective input–output approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortés-Borda, D.; Ruiz-Hernández, A.; Guillén-Gosálbez, G.; Llop, M.; Guimerà, R.; Sales-Pardo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi-criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO 2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policy makers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought. - Highlights: • We minimize climate change by performing small changes in the consumption habits. • We propose a tool that combines multiobjective optimization and macroeconomic models. • Identifying key sectors allows improving the environmental performance significantly with little impact to the economy. • Significant reductions in global warming potential are attained by regulating sectors. • Our tool aids policy makers in the design of effective sustainability policies

  13. Global warming : a guide to the science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.L.; Robinson, A.B.; Robinson, Z.W.

    2001-01-01

    This guide dispels the popular hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from increased industrial activity have caused global warming. The report suggests that there is no evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and that temperature changes over the last 100 years has been due mostly to natural phenomena. The global temperature has increased by about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C in the past 100 years, and this, before most of the greenhouse gases were added to the air by human activities such as burning of fossil fuels. The initial major rise in temperature was in 1940, before the rise in carbon dioxide levels, therefore, it was suggested that this warming must have been natural in origin. Computer based simulations of the climate system forecast disastrous rises in global temperature. But it was argued that current climate models are not accurate in forecasting future climate change because it is not possible to isolate the effect of an increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate because about 5 million different variables have to be considered with all their important impacts and interactions. Science indicates that at most, a little warming will occur and certainly better plant grown which should be of great benefit to mankind. It was concluded that the human condition can be improved through unconstrained access to energy, but use of energy may also produce local unwanted pollutants as a by product. The sources of true environmental pollution can be mitigated based on rational considerations of the risks of pollutants and benefits of energy use. refs., figs

  14. A policy synthesis approach for slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.R.

    1996-01-01

    Global warming is a burning environmental issue today but confronting with subjective as well as policy conflicts. The findings of various studies indicate that developed countries that are capable of affording effective measures towards the global warming mitigation have fewer incentives for doing so because they will have a minimal damage from global warming. The developing countries, although they will have greater damage, are unlikely to divert their development budget for taking preventive actions towards global warming. The only solution in this situation is to design a policy that encourages all the nation in the world to participate in the programs for slowing global warming. Without active participation of all nations, it seems unlikely to reduce the global warming problem in an effective way. This study presents a qualitative policy recommendation extracted from a comprehensive analysis of the findings of several studies conducted so far in this field. This study has categorized the policy approaches for mitigating the global warming in three groups: Engineering approach, forestry approach and economic approach

  15. Global Warming: How Much and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanouette, William

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

  16. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  17. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  18. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  19. Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

  20. Global warming and the forest fire business in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stocks, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    The current forest fire situation in Canada is outlined, and an attempt is made to predict the impact of global warming on the forest fire business in Canada. Despite the development of extremely sophisticated provincial and territorial fire management systems, forest fires continue to exert a tremendous influence on the Canadian forest resource. Research into the relationship between climate warming and forest fires has fallen into two categories: the effect of future global warming on fire weather severity, and the current contribution of forest fires to global atmospheric greenhouse gas budgets. A 46% increase in seasonal fire severity across Canada is suggested under a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Approximately 89% of carbon released to the atmosphere by forest fire burning is in the form of carbon dioxide, 9% is carbon monoxide, and the remaining carbon is released as methane or non-methane hydrocarbons. It is estimated that forest fires in northern circumpolar countries contribute from 1-2% of the carbon released globally through biomass burning. Fire may be the agent by which a northerly shift of forest vegetation in Canada occurs. 13 refs., 2 figs

  1. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  2. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

  3. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  4. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  5. Strategies for mitigation of global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Niels I

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed.......The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed....

  6. Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this…

  7. Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauretano, V.

    2016-01-01

    The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

  8. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

  9. Global warming -- Science and anti-science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preining, O. [Univ. of Vienna, Wien (Austria). Inst. for Experimental Physics]|[Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wien (Austria). Clean Air Commission

    1995-06-01

    The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

  10. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; Worth, Devon E.; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 decreased on average the emissions of N 2 O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO 2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N 2 O, NO and NH 3 flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha −1 reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N 2 O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact

  11. Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B.; Smith, Ward N. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Desjardins, Raymond L., E-mail: ray.desjardins@agr.gc.ca [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Worth, Devon E. [Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, K.W. Neatby Building, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6 (Canada); Zentner, Robert [Swift Current Research Station, Swift Current, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada); Malhi, Sukhdev S. [Melfort Research Farm, PO Box 1240, Melfort, Saskatchewan S0E 1A0 (Canada)

    2014-08-15

    Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} decreased on average the emissions of N{sub 2}O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO{sub 2} emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. - Highlights: • LCA was combined with DNDC model to estimate the GWP of a cropping system. • N{sub 2}O, NO and NH{sub 3} flux increased by 39% under the higher fertilizer rate. • A change from 75 to 50 kg N ha{sup −1} reduced the GWP per ha and GJ basis by 18%. • N{sub 2}O emissions contributed 67% to the overall GWP of the cropping system. • Small changes in N fertilizer can have a substantial environmental impact.

  12. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  13. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  14. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

    2017-12-01

    The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

  15. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...... development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies...

  16. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  17. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  18. The politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, N.

    1991-01-01

    The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

  19. Scientists have lost the North. Reflections on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galam, S.

    2008-01-01

    A huge difference exists between a scientific proof and a scientific theory. This is the case with global warming. No honest scientist can prove that mankind is the only responsible of it. The possibility of a natural cause to the observed disturbances is much more worrying, considering that with our present day knowledge, no determining element allows to identify its origin and there exist no warranty that we can face up to it. The author considers that in this affair, scientists have become gurus and their opinions are considered as absolute truths. Science is now decreed and not proven, information has become propaganda and the real risk of global warming is in its social impact. On this point it is effectively urgent to act

  20. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-01-01

    Most atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil, which become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of the climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is likely to increase methane concentrations within the atmosphere, possibly leading to further heating, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. Investigators explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although they found this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity that should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/.

  1. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  2. Using isotopes for global warming observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Namata, K.

    2002-01-01

    This paper, based on a literature review, discusses the main aspects of using isotopic techniques to obtain information about global warming. The rapid increase concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in the atmosphere will result in global warming by the greenhouse effect, and the isotopic techniques constitute an efficient tool to explain this complex environmental phenomenon. (author)

  3. Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2014-08-19

    Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

  4. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

  5. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  6. Awareness And Perception of Global Warming Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Increase in the emission of green house gases and the attendant climatic changes have led to the phenomenon of global warming with all its catastrophic consequences. OBJECTIVE: To assess knowledge and perception of the concept of global warming among undergraduate medical students

  7. Global warming: What should we do to stop or slow?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guenalp, B.

    2006-01-01

    Earth is warming much faster than had been predicted. 2005 was the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998. The multinational Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report recently concluded that in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, average temperatures have increased 3 to 4 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years. Rising temperatures have a dramatic impact on Arctic ice. Since 1978 Arctic sea ice area has shrunk by some 9 percent per decade, and thinned as well. There are three specific events especially worrisome and potentially imminent, although the time frames are a matter of dispute: dramatic sea level rise by the end of the century that would take tens of thousand years to reverse; widespread coral bleaching that could be damage the world's fisheries within three decades; and, within 200 years, a shutdown of the ocean current that moderates temperatures in northern Europe. Global warming is caused by human activities such as burning nature's vast store of coal, oil and nature gas which releases billions of tones carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) every year. If current trends continue, we will raise atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to double pre-industrial levels during this century. That will probably be enough to raise global temperatures by around 2 degree C to 5 degree C. Even if humans stop burning oil and coal tomorrow we have already spewed enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to cause temperatures to warm and sea levels to rise for at least another century. So what should we do? We can not continue drawing energy from fossil fuels and there is no chance that the renewable, wind, tide, and water power can provide enough energy and in time. Nuclear energy is the only one immediately available source does not cause global warming. In this presentation consequences and risks of global warming, as well as nuclear power comparisons will be discussed comprehensively

  8. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; hide

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  9. A global warming forum: Scientific, economic, and legal overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geyer, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    A Global Warming Forum covers in detail five general subject areas aimed at providing first, the scientific background and technical information available on global warming and second, a study and evaluation of the role of economic, legal, and political considerations in global warming. The five general topic areas discussed are the following: (1) The role of geophysical and geoengineering methods to solve problems related to global climatic change; (2) the role of oceanographic and geochemical methods to provide evidence for global climatic change; (3) the global assessment of greenhouse gas production including the need for additional information; (4) natural resource management needed to provide long-term global energy and agricultural uses; (5) legal, policy, and educational considerations required to properly evaluate global warming proposals

  10. National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Although numerous historical examples demonstrate how actual climate change has contributed to the rise and fall of powers, global warming , in and of...become convinced that global warming is universally bad and humans are the primary cause, political leaders may develop ill-advised policies restricting

  11. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  12. Synergistic impacts of global warming on the resilience of coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozec, Yves-Marie; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent epizootics have removed important functional species from Caribbean coral reefs and left communities vulnerable to alternative attractors. Global warming will impact reefs further through two mechanisms. A chronic mechanism reduces coral calcification, which can result in depressed somatic growth. An acute mechanism, coral bleaching, causes extreme mortality when sea temperatures become anomalously high. We ask how these two mechanisms interact in driving future reef state (coral cover) and resilience (the probability of a reef remaining within a coral attractor). We find that acute mechanisms have the greatest impact overall, but the nature of the interaction with chronic stress depends on the metric considered. Chronic and acute stress act additively on reef state but form a strong synergy when influencing resilience by intensifying a regime shift. Chronic stress increases the size of the algal basin of attraction (at the expense of the coral basin), whereas coral bleaching pushes the system closer to the algal attractor. Resilience can change faster—and earlier—than a change in reef state. Therefore, we caution against basing management solely on measures of reef state because a loss of resilience can go unnoticed for many years and then become disproportionately more difficult to restore.

  13. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  14. Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2009-01-01

    Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential

  15. Unified force and its relation with global warming crave for hydrogen energy and promote fuel cell technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is presently a tremendous public interest and has become a threat to every individual. Huge quantities of CO/sub 2/ are emitted to the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity in power plants and burning of gasoline in aeroplanes and vehicles. Enormous amount of greenhouse gasses are sent into the air when garbage is burnt in landfills. Cutting down of trees and other plants which collect CO/sub 2/ a greenhouse gas which is inhaled and which gives back oxygen which is exhaled makes global warming worse. 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is also known as Unified Force is also related with global warming which is proportional to increase of H/sub 2/O level in sea and causes floods, storms, droughts and severe impacts to the environment and society. In order to better understand global warming and its relation with Unified Force, this paper discusses the cause and effect system on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and also the other green house gases like CH/sub 4/, water vapour, NOx etc. and emphasis its importance to focus on crave for Hydrogen Energy and to promote Fuel Cell technology to keep the earth green and safer from the impacts of global warming. The benefit of switching from fossil fuels to Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell technology reduces the impact of global warming, elimination of pollution caused by fossil fuels and greenhouse gases, economic dependence and distributed production. (author)

  16. The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott B.; Kociuba, Greg [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-11-15

    The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean, from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west - is one of the world's most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Nino, for example, the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate, ecosystems, agriculture, and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century, consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show, in stark contrast to expectations, that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century, not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti, but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC, it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural, internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the

  17. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

    2018-04-30

    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  18. Global warming and north-south solidarity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, S.

    1998-01-01

    The discussion on climate change is based on 'contradictory certainties'. All sides claim to have found the truth. Much has been written and said about the connection between global warming, biodiversity and over population. The impoverished countries of the South se the insatiable intentions of the North as the major threat to the environment; and global warming as an excuse for stopping the economic development of the south

  19. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  20. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

  1. Impact of global warming on permafrost conditions in a coupled GCM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, M.; Christensen, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    emissions (SRES A2 issued by IPCC), we estimate the amounts that the permafrost zones moves poleward and how the thickness of the active layer deepens in response to the global warming by the end of the 21st century. The simulation indicates a 30-40% increase in active-layer thickness for most...

  2. GLOBAL WARMING: IS A NEW THREAT?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayca Eminoglu

    2008-09-30

    In the Post Cold War era, the concepts of ''security'', ''national security'', and ''international security'' have changed with regard to their contents and meanings. Such developments made states to renew their national security policies. Security is a special form of politics as well. All security issues are political problems but not all political conflicts are security issues. In the Post Cold War era, differentiating and increasing numbers of elements that constitutes threat changed the concept of threat and widen the capacity of security. In this term, many elements lost its effect of being a threat but also new threatening elements emerged. Environmental problems, human rights, mass migration, micro nationalism, ethnic conflicts, religious fundamentalism, contagious diseases, international terrorism, economic instabilities, drug and weapon smuggling and human trafficking are the new problems emerged in international security agenda. Environmental problems no longer take place in security issues and can be mentioned as a ''low security'' issue. They are threats to the global commons i.e. the oceans, the seas, the ozone layer and the climate system, which are life supports for mankind as a whole. Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues of our day that effects human life in every field and can be defined as a 'serious threat to international security'. Because of global warming, environmental changes will occur and these changes will cause conflicting issues in international relations. Because of global warming dwindling freshwater supplies, food shortages, political instability and other conflicts may take place. Some IR scholars see a need for global cooperation in order to face the threat. At the background of global warming and its effects, states have to get preventive measures and normally, each state form its own measures, therefore as a

  3. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  4. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  5. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  6. Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation Aquecimento Global na Amazônia: impactos e Mitigação

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Martin Fearnside

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998. Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005. We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of

  7. Decarbonization of fossil fuels as a strategy to control global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbasi, T.; Abbasi, S.A. [Pondicherry Central University, Pondicherry (India)

    2011-05-15

    With the world reaching near-total consensus on the seriousness of the global warming impacts, and on the urgency to halt further warming, R & D efforts have intensified many-fold to find ways and means of global warming control. One of the avenues being explored is 'decarbonization' of fossil fuel use by either decarbonizing the fuels before they are burnt or by capturing the CO{sub 2} they emit on combustion. In this paper the various available options are reviewed in the context of their economic and environmental viability. It emerges that even as the goal is very enchanting, the possibility of it's realization appears remote. It also follows that the only sure method of reducing greenhouse gas emissions presently available to humankind is by reducing consumption of energy and other resources.

  8. The impact of global warming on the automotive industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannappel, Ralf

    2017-08-01

    One cause of global warming of the earth's atmosphere is the emission of human made gases (methane, CO2, nitrous oxygen, etc.) into the environment. Of the total global CO2 emissions the transportation sector contributes to about 14%. In order to control the emissions of the automotive sector, in all major countries (USA, Europe, China, Japan) of the world, tough emissions targets were being set to reduce the vehicle traffic's contribution of CO2. These are derived from the global climate conference' target to limit the maximum temperature increase of the earth of 2 degrees Celsius until 2100. In order to achieve these stringent targets the automotive industry will face a major change in its drivetrain. It will move from combustion to electrical engines. The technical realization of these engines will most likely be battery and fuel cell driven propulsion systems. In order to achieve that transition a major effort is required in 4 industrial areas, i.e. growing electrical charging infrastructure, lowering battery cost, increasing the battery-electric vehicle ranges and developing new environmental friendly hydrogen production methods.

  9. The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas. A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krosnick, J.A.; Holbrook, A.L.; Lowe, L.; Visser, P.S.

    2006-01-01

    This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans' judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judgments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human responsibility for causing global warming and people's ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experiences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public's assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences

  10. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more

  11. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  12. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D [State Univ. of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY (USA). Lab. for Planetary Atmospheres Research

    1983-01-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  13. Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hameed, S; Cess, R D

    1983-02-01

    Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

  14. Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

  15. Global warming and the challenge of international cooperation: an interdisciplinary assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The book aims to explore the nature of potential climatic change. It seeks to assess the scientific, economic legal and political issues related to the threat of global warming from an interdisciplinary perspective. The seven chapters have the following titles: the challenge of global warming; global warming and ozone depletion - certainties and uncertainties; consequences of global climate change for Earth's biosphere; global energy use and global warming; problems and prospects of institutionalizing ecological interdependence in a world of local independence; political institutions and climate change; and policy options for responding to the threat of global warming. Six chapters are abstracted separately. 158 refs

  16. Movement of global warming issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Taishi

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

  17. Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

    2018-05-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

  18. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  19. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  20. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  1. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  2. Nuclear Energy is the Answer to Cope with the Lack of Energy and Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wisnu Arya Wardhana

    2009-01-01

    This paper of nuclear energy is the answer to cope with the lack of energy and global warming based on the analysis of energy demand which is increasing rapidly, meanwhile the energy reserve is limited and decreased. Mostly world′s energy is generated by fossil fuel energy, mainly oil and coal. Fossil fuel energy and industrial activities produce green house gases (GHG) such as : COx, CH 4 , N 2 O, and CFC which cause of global warming. Global warming gives bad impact to environment and to human being. Every country in the world needs sufficient energy, but the energy resources is limited and decreased. The answer for this solution must be an energy source which does not produce green house gases. Why nuclear energy is chosen to cope with the lack of energy and global warming will be explained briefly in this paper. (author)

  3. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  4. The FRISBEE tool, a software for optimising the trade-off between food quality, energy use, and global warming impact of cold chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gwanpua, S.G.; Verboven, P.; Leducq, D.; Brown, T.; Verlinden, B.E.; Bekele, E.; Aregawi, W. Evans, J.; Foster, A.; Duret, S.; Hoang, H.M.; Sluis, S. van der; Wissink, E.; Hendriksen, L.J.A.M.; Taoukis, P.; Gogou, E.; Stahl, V.; El Jabri, M.; Le Page, J.F.; Claussen, I.; Indergård, E.; Nicolai, B.M.; Alvarez, G.; Geeraerd, A.H.

    2015-01-01

    Food quality (including safety) along the cold chain, energy use and global warming impact of refrigeration systems are three key aspects in assessing cold chain sustainability. In this paper, we present the framework of a dedicated software, the FRISBEE tool, for optimising quality of refrigerated

  5. Global warming: Towards a strategy for Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    A discussion paper is provided as background to a proposed public review of a strategy for Ontario's response to global warming. Global warming arises from the generation of greenhouse gases, which come from the use of fossil fuels, the use of chlorofluorocarbons, and deforestation. Energy policy is the backbone of achieving climate stability since the burning of fossil fuels releases most of the greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide. Canada is, by international standards, a very energy-intensive country and is among the world's largest emitters of carbon dioxide on a per capita basis. Ontario is the largest energy-using province in Canada, and fossil fuels represent over 80% of provincial energy use. A proposed goal for Ontario is to provide leadership in stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, while minimizing the social, economic, and environmental costs in Ontario of adapting to global warming. A proposed first step to address global warming is to achieve reductions in expected emissions of the greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, so that levels by the year 2000 are lower than in 1989. Current policies and regulations helping to reduce the greenhouse effect include some of the current controls on automotive emissions and the adoption by the provincial electric utility of targets to reduce electricity demand. New initiatives include establishment of minimum energy efficiency standards and reduction of peak-day electricity use. Action steps for future consideration are detailed in the categories of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, carbon dioxide absorption, and research and analysis into global warming

  6. Global warming influence on climatic variables and thermal comfort index in Paraíba state, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Gustavo de Assis; Instituto Agronômico de Pernambuco; Souza, Bonifácio Benicio de; Universidade Federal Campina Grande; Silva, Elisângela Maria Nunes da; UFCG

    2015-01-01

    The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases originated from burning fossil fuels, along with breeding, been appointed as the main causes of global climate change resulting from global warming in earth's atmosphere. These changes can cause serious impacts on the lives and livestock production mainly in tropical regions. Therefore, the aim with this work was to evaluate the effect of global warming on the climatological variables, thermal comfort index and animal production in the sta...

  7. The Relational Concurrence of Global Warming and Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An attempt has been made to examine the concurrent relationship between global warming and economic development focusing on the danger it inheres in developing countries. To achieve this, the paper commenced with the conceptualization of global warming and economic development, the natural and human causes ...

  8. Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunstad, Bjoern

    2007-01-01

    The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)

  9. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  10. A real-time Global Warming Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

    2017-11-13

    We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

  11. Global Surface Warming Hiatus Analysis Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data were used to conduct the study of the global surface warming hiatus, an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998....

  12. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  13. Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton J.

    2007-01-01

    The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

  14. Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

    2009-12-01

    The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

  15. Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Jeffrey

    2018-06-01

    Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

  16. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

  17. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2018-03-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  18. Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2017-04-01

    The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change

  19. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University; Scherer, Martin [Stanford University; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  20. Alternative "global warming" metrics in life cycle assessment: a case study with existing transportation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P; Aamaas, Borgar; T Lund, Marianne; Solli, Christian; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

    2011-10-15

    The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) impact category "global warming" compares emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) using Global Warming Potential (GWP) with a 100-year time-horizon as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Two weaknesses of this approach are (1) the exclusion of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and biophysical factors despite their established importance, and (2) the use of a particular emission metric (GWP) with a choice of specific time-horizons (20, 100, and 500 years). The GWP and the three time-horizons were based on an illustrative example with value judgments and vague interpretations. Here we illustrate, using LCA data of the transportation sector, the importance of SLCFs relative to LLGHGs, different emission metrics, and different treatments of time. We find that both the inclusion of SLCFs and the choice of emission metric can alter results and thereby change mitigation priorities. The explicit inclusion of time, both for emissions and impacts, can remove value-laden assumptions and provide additional information for impact assessments. We believe that our results show that a debate is needed in the LCA community on the impact category "global warming" covering which emissions to include, the emission metric(s) to use, and the treatment of time.

  1. Environmental impact assessment caused by global warming. Chikyu ondanka no eikyoryo hyoka to sono taisaku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oshima, K [Geological Survey of Japan, Tokyo (Japan)

    1991-09-01

    This paper describes the considerations on the influence of the global warming on the environment, and the discussions on the measures against the climatic changes. With respect to the environmental effects by the global warming, the considerations were given based on the studies on the effects of mainly the Quaternary climatic changes on the surface sea water temperatures, sea level and animal flocks. If the magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated to occur during the 21st century is lower than that have taken place in the past 10,000 years during which the agricultural production has developed to a full-scale, there would be no fear of drastically changing the ecology on earth. If the estimation of future climatic and environmental changes becomes possible, then four basic positions could be selected for establishing the contermeasure plans. That is, the first is the measures to correspond to birth-rebirth transmigration; the second is the measures to carbon dioxide disposition upon concluding that the cause for the global warming is the atmospheric increase of carbon dioxide concentration, measures for conservation and international cooperation; the third is to deal with the warming environments; and the fourth is the means to reconstruct the earth. While a number of countermeasures may be prepared, Which of them should be selected will be decided by the amount of effects. 15 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

    2018-05-01

    Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

  3. Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

  4. Transgenerational plasticity mitigates the impact of global warming to offspring sex ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donelson, Jennifer M; Munday, Philip L

    2015-08-01

    Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  6. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  7. The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-03-23

    The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  8. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  9. Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, Govindasamy; Nag, Bappaditya [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-09-15

    A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO{sub 2} leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m{sup -2}) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO{sub 2} (3.3 W m{sup -2}) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m{sup -2}). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification. (orig.)

  10. Regional growth management policies: Toward reducing global warming at state and local levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purdie, J.

    1995-01-01

    State and local governments in the United States are accepting mandates to coordinate legislated land use and growth management planning with vigorous environmental protection and resource conservation. These mandates, implemented or planned in states with populations totaling over 100 million, will directly impact growth patterns and ultimately affect the level of atmospheric gases and particulates generated within their borders. This paper addresses the issues of growth management and land use planning at the local, state and regional levels and identifies areas impacting global warming. A review of existing systems will be presented, and recommendations will be made to improve monitoring of growth management mechanisms and organizational structures with the goal of global atmospheric improvement. The issues discussed include urban sprawl, transportation, and growth patterns as managed by policies also designed to protect environments and provide for sustainable growth. Areas for improved coordination between jurisdictions to ease global warming will also be examined

  11. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  12. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  13. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  14. Impacts of Climate Change under the Threat of Global Warming for an Agricultural Watershed of the Kangsabati River

    OpenAIRE

    Sujana Dhar; Asis Mazumdar

    2009-01-01

    The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to conti...

  15. What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

    OpenAIRE

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

  16. Global Warming and Financial Umbrellas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dosi, C.; Moretto, M.

    2001-10-01

    A new instrument for hedging weather risks has made its appearance in the financial arena. Trade in 'weather derivatives' has taken off in the US, and interest is growing elsewhere. Whilst such contracts may be simply interpreted as a new tool for solving a historical problem, the question addressed in this paper is if, besides other factors, the appearance of weather derivatives is somehow related to anthropogenic climate change. Our tentative answer is positive. Since 'global warming' does not simply mean an increase in averaged temperatures, but increased climate variability, and increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, derivative contracts may potentially become a useful tool for hedging some weather risks, insofar as they may provide coverage at a lower cost than standard insurance schemes. Keywords: Global warming, climate variability, insurance coverage, weather derivatives

  17. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

    2017-04-01

    In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

  18. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor

    2017-04-11

    In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

  19. Chinese Grade Eight Students' Understanding about the Concept of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing

    2017-01-01

    China is one of the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitters. Chinese students' awareness and understanding about global warming have a significant impact on the future of mankind. This study, as an initial research of this kind in Mainland China, uses clinical interviews to survey 37 grade eight students on their understanding about global…

  20. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  1. A globális felmelegedésről (About the Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin M. Barna

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years we can more and more often hear and read about the climate change and global warming. However, the global warming has already occured many times in Earth’s history – think of the alternation of ice ages and warmer periods – but the pace of the global warming which can cause for concern. British and American researchers say that even the carbon dioxide emissions quotas can not slow down the process moreover to full stopping of emissions could not to reverse the global warming. What will actually happen, we don’t know yet exactly, scientists are trying to set up different scenarios with the help of climate modeling. As the 5th of IPCC report says, people are responsible for the climate change at least 95 percent. Due to the fact the climate change has become a global phenomenon so the need for intervention is not an issue anymore thus only the extensive international cooperation can correct reply for global challanges. Beside the environmental and physiological effects, there are economic effects of climate change which costs may be 5-20% of GDP if we don’t intervene in processes while prevention costs of the most serious consequences are not expected to reach 1% of GDP. However, do not forget that the social and enterprise-level acceptance is the foundation of every step which counterbalance the global warming process. A part of the society is still sceptical about the impacts of climate change, in this case the development of appropriate communication is the solution. Among the companies the acceptance is wider as today the use of an environmentally friendly technology is a competitive advantage so these technologies have become a main factor of the long-term survival.

  2. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  3. Toward international law on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shultz, E.B. Jr.; Johns, C.; Pauken, M.T.

    1991-01-01

    Legal precedent in the history of international environmental law is considered. Then, the legal principles, rights and obligations related to transboundary environmental interference are drawn from the precedent. From this legal and historical background, and a brief overview of the principal technical aspects of the emerging global warming problem, the authors suggest a number of possible international protocols. These include outlines of multilateral treaties on energy efficiency, reduction in utilization of coal, increased adoption efficiency, reduction in utilization of coal, increased adoption of renewable and solar energy, and stimulation of several types of forestation, with creation of practical regimes and remedies. Each protocol has its own environmental social and economic merits and urgency, apart from the prevention of global warming. In each suggested protocol, the political obstacles are analyzed. Suggestions are presented for reduction of levels of disagreement standing in the way of obtaining viable treaties likely to be upheld in practice by the signatories. An agenda for study and action is presented, on the assumption that prudence dictates that international environmental law must be expanded as soon as feasible to regulate global warming

  4. The use of analogies in forecasting ecological and societal responses to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, M.H. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO (USA). Environmental Research and Societal Impacts Group)

    1991-06-01

    Due to the limitations of general circulation models, researchers use analogies to look at future climatic change and its effects. Analogies used include the greenhouse, the Altithermal period, regional climates and summertime. Analogical reasoning is a prominent part of general circulation modeling of the atmosphere. Analogies are useful for generating hypotheses and improving understanding, but not as forecasts. The use of an analogy to develop specific policies related to global warming is risky. Historical analogies can provide a first approach to ascertaining the level of societal preparedness for the impacts of a global warming. Each analogy provides additional information about the target problem. 63 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  5. The use of analogies in forecasting ecological and societal responses to global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    Due to the limitations of general circulation models, researchers use analogies to look at future climatic change and its effects. Analogies used include the greenhouse, the Altithermal period, regional climates and summertime. Analogical reasoning is a prominent part of general circulation modeling of the atmosphere. Analogies are useful for generating hypotheses and improving understanding, but not as forecasts. The use of an analogy to develop specific policies related to global warming is risky. Historical analogies can provide a first approach to ascertaining the level of societal preparedness for the impacts of a global warming. Each analogy provides additional information about the target problem. 63 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  6. An innovative nuclear reactor as a solution to global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Robson Silva da; Sefidvash, Farhang

    2007-01-01

    The problem of global warming is no longer a philosophical discussion, but it is a fact seriously threatening the future of humanity. In this paper a practical solution to the problem of global warming resulting from the fossil fuelled energy suppliers is presented. The energy conservation and alternative forms of energy such as solar, wind, and bio even though having important roles, do not satisfy the energy demand generated by an increasing world population that desires to increase its standard of living. The fission process in the nuclear reactors does not produce greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The new paradigm in nuclear energy is the future innovative reactors that meet the new standards set by the INPRO Program of the IAEA. One such a reactor is presented in this paper, namely the Fixed Bed Nuclear Reactor (FBNR) that is supported by the International Atomic Energy (IAEA) in its program of Small Reactors Without On-Site Refuelling (SRWOSR), being one of the four water cooled reactors in this program. The other three reactor concepts are PFPWR50 of Japan, BWRPB of Russia and AFPR-100 of USA. It is shown that the nuclear energy of the future is totally different than what is today in respect to safety, economics, environmental impact and proliferation. In this manner, the public perception of nuclear energy will change and its acceptability is promoted. (author)

  7. Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

  8. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  9. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  10. Understanding the challenges of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.

    2003-01-01

    The evolution of the threat of global warming and the chronology of the last half century of efforts to prevent it from overwhelming humanity is chronicled. It was in the 1970s when it was first realized that the cumulative total of atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning had been steadily rising from the pre-industrial 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) to 325 ppmv, approximately parallel with the rise of industrialization. Nevertheless, the first attempt at a global accord to reduce emissions was not made until 1992, when the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit tried, but miserably failed to reach agreement, having been prevented from achieving anything of substance by a loose-knit group of nations and commercial interests. Binding agreements were finally reached at the next scheduled international meeting in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. There is a detailed discussion of the Kyoto Protocols, the measures that Annex One nations such as Canada have to do to achieve the six per cent reductions targets below 1990 levels of emissions by 2010, and estimates of the costs involved. These discussions of proposed actions are balanced by a display of examples of the the growing volume of arguments advanced by opponents who not only disagree about what can be done to reduce emissions, but that there is anything that needs to be done at all. Central to their arguments is the denial that human activities are responsible for global warming, disregarding the overwhelming evidence by 3000+ leading scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that most of the global warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. The rest of the article details what can and needs to be done to reverse the cumulative impact of greenhouse gas emissions, how we can produce the energy we need at the lowest environmental cost, and the types of energy (solar, wind, biomass, natural gas) that result in the smallest GHG emissions. Familiar arguments are recited to

  11. Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ama Browne Klutse, Nana; Ajayi, Vincent O.; Olabode Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Egbebiyi, Temitope S.; Kouadio, Kouakou; Nkrumah, Francis; Akumenyi Quagraine, Kwesi; Olusegun, Christiana; Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971‑2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.

  12. Is the enhancement of global warming important?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Symons, M.C.R.; Barrett, J.

    2001-01-01

    There is no doubt that global warming is important; without it the Earth's surface would have a mean temperature of 33 o C lower than it has currently. The IPCC maintains that human activities are to blame for the observed increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times. There are some doubts about whether global warming is being enhanced by the activities of the human race. This article reviews these doubts and the proposed remedies to the alleged enhancement. (author)

  13. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  14. Life on a warmer earth: Possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. Executive report 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flohn, H

    1981-01-01

    This Executive Report derives from IIASA Research Report RR-80-30, Possible Climatic Consequences of a Man-Made Global Warming, by H. Flohn and published separately. It is based on research undertaken to explore the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic; it provides insight into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. The purpose of this report is to put the research findings into layman's language and add related information to provide a general introduction to the global warming problem. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: the scenario in brief; the climatic system; changes in ice cover; changes in atmosphere and oceans; man's effect on climate; taking the earth's temperature; what a hotter earth might mean; beyond immediate prospects; and, today's mixed signals. (JGB)

  15. Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

    2013-04-06

    Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

  16. Greenhouse science; Global warming: the origin and nature of alleged scientific consensus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, R. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (USA))

    1992-01-01

    The paper contends that there is not a scientific consensus on the existence of global warming. The scientific issues associated with the prediction of global warming are reviewed and it is concluded that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in greenhouse gases such as CO[sub 2], methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The history of the current concern over global warming is described. Political aspects, scientists' concerns over funding and the desire of industrial companies to improve their public image by supporting environmental activists are some of the factors seen as responsible for the current global warming 'hysteria'. 6 figs.

  17. Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

  18. Replacement of chlorofluorocarbons at the DOE gaseous diffusion plants: An assessment of global impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Socolof, M.L.; McCold, L.N.; Saylor, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    Three gaseous diffusion plants (GDPs) for enriching uranium maintain a large inventory of chlorofluorocarbon-114 (CFC-114) as a coolant. To address the continued use of CFC-114, an ozone-depleting substance, the US Department of Energy (DOE) considered introducing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) by the end of 1995. These PFCs would not contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion but would be larger contributors to global warming than would CFC-114. The paper reports the results of an assessment of the global impacts of four alternatives for modifying GDP coolant system operations over a three-year period beginning in 1996. The overall contribution of GDP coolant releases to impacts on ozone depletion and global warming were quantified by parameters referred to as ozone-depletion impact and global-warming impact. The analysis showed that these parameters could be used as surrogates for predicting global impacts to all resources and could provide a framework for assessing environmental impacts of a permanent coolant replacement, eliminating the need for subsequent resource-specific analyses

  19. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  20. Interactive effects of warming, eutrophication and size structure: impacts on biodiversity and food-web structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binzer, Amrei; Guill, Christian; Rall, Björn C; Brose, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: Warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: Communities of similarly sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Nonrandom extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-06

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Mohajan, Haradhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

  3. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...... and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions...

  4. Is man responsible for global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legendre, A.

    2009-01-01

    According to politicians, ecologists and mass media, it is now certain that with our CO 2 emissions, we are all responsible for a major global warming to come with dramatic consequences. But, is this affirmation indisputable? Are we all responsible for the rise of sea level and the summer thawing of the arctic ice shelf? Is this expected global warming without precedent? And is CO 2 , necessary for life, the cause of our misfortune? The answers commonly claimed are maybe more complex in reality and the climate question more subtle than it looks like. This book tries to decode the wheels of the climate machine and the share of human responsibility in climate change. (J.S.)

  5. Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

    2016-11-30

    The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

  6. Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

    2017-06-01

    The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

  7. Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

    2011-01-01

    Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

  8. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  9. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

  10. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

  11. National action strategy on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-11-01

    A document prepared by a committee of Canadian environmental ministries proposes a strategic framework for a national action plan concerning global warming. The strategy would be carried out jointly by governments and all other sectors of the economy, taking into account the present state of scientific knowledge on global warming. Within this framework, the governments in cooperation with interested parties would take certain measures in their respective areas of competence. The main recommendations of the document include the following. The action strategy should comprise 3 elements: limiting emissions of greenhouse gases; forecasting climatic changes which Canada could undergo due to global warming and preparing for such changes; and improving scientific knowledge and the capacity to predict climatic changes. Limitations on this strategy should take into account such matters as the interaction of greenhouse gases with other pollutants, the importance of the international context, the need to adapt to new discoveries, and the importance of regional differences. Implementation of the strategy should incorporate widespread consultation of all affected sectors, sustained work on establishing international conventions and protocols on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, objectives and schedules for such reductions, and stepwise actions to control emissions in order to enable an adequate evaluation of the consequences and effectiveness of such measures. 10 figs., 2 tabs

  12. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  13. Global Warming: Claims, Science, and Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Laurence I.

    2007-04-01

    Widespread (and seemingly dominant) claims about the dire consequences of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been propagated by both scientists and politicians and have been prominently featured by much of the mass media. This talk will examine some of those claims --- such as those made in the popular pro-AGW film, An Inconvenient Truth^1 --- from the perspectives of science^2 and scientific methodology^3. Some of the issues considered will be: What are the major ``greenhouse gases''? To what extent is global warming a result of human influences through an increase of ``greenhouse gases''? Is an increase in (1) global temperature and (2) carbon dioxide bad/good? What are some meanings that can be given to the term ``consensus'' in science? What are the estimated financial and other costs of governments implementing the Kyoto accords? Links to readings and videos will be given at the conclusion of the talk. ^1Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It -- (Rodale Press, May, 2006). ^2Marlo Lewis, ``A Skeptic's Guide to An Inconvenient Truth'' http://www.cei.org/pages/aitresponse-book.cfm ^3Aaron Wildavsky, But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues (Harvard University Press, 1995), Intro. and Chap. 11. To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.NES07.C1.6

  14. Can paleorefugia of cold-adapted species in talus slopes resist global warming?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Růžička, Vlastimil; Zacharda, M.; Šmilauer, P.; Kučera, T.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 3 (2015), s. 403-412 ISSN 1239-6095 Grant - others:GA JU(CZ) 04-142/2010/P Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : global warming Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.476, year: 2015 http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/ber20/ber20-403.pdf

  15. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  16. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  17. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.

    2017-11-01

    There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.

  18. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  19. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  20. The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

    2012-12-01

    The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

  1. Public perception of global warming and related environmental issues in Kano city, Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliyasu, Z.; Abubakar, I.; Gajida, A.U.

    2010-07-01

    Sub-Saharan African countries are at an increased risk of the effects of global warming. Unfortunately they have the least capacity to adapt to its untoward effects. We studied public awareness of global warming, its perceived causes, effects and prevention in Kano city, northern Nigeria. Structured questionnaires were administered on a cross section of 181 adults in Kano eliciting their awareness of global warming, as well as perceived causes, effects and ways of prevention. Of the 181 respondents, 132 (72.9%) were aware of global warming mainly from electronic media (44.4%), the Internet (20.5%) and schools (18.7%). They mostly attributed it to air pollution (99.2%), use of fossil fuels (97.7%), toxic waste (78.0%) and chlorofluorocarbons (73.5%). Perceived effects of global warming include extremes of ambient temperature (97.7%), increased disease outbreaks (92.4%), floods (68.2%), droughts (51.5%) and loss of species (50.0%). Respondents opined that global warming could be prevented by using renewable sources of energy such as the sun (53.8%), massive tree planting (44.7%) and phasing out of old automobiles (43.2%). A significantly higher proportion of males, younger and educated respondents were aware of global warming. The high awareness about global warming needs to be reinforced through use of media to encourage advocacy and community action towards preventing global warming and ensuring environmental sustainability.

  2. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  3. The status and prospects of the debate upon the global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, C. Y.

    2001-01-01

    Possible climate change caused by global warming becomes one of the most serious challenges that mankind shall tackle in 21 st century. Nuclear power, which doesn't emit any greenhouse gas during the generation of electricity, is a promising solution to mitigate the global warming. However, there are still debates about the role of nuclear power related to the subjects such as safety, radioactive waste management and nuclear proliferation risk in the international climate change talks. This paper introduces on-going negotiation focused on the nuclear power and then, gives some prospects on the future negotiations. Finally the brief analysis of their impacts on domestic nuclear industry is carried out

  4. Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

    2014-12-01

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

  5. A methodology for the evaluation of global warming impact on soil moisture and runoff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valdes, J.B.; Seoane, R.S.; North, G.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. Precipitation and temperature patterns, soil moisture requirements, and the physical structure of the vegetation canopy play important roles in the hydrologic system of drainage basins. Changes in these phenomena, because of a buildup Of CO 2 and other trace gases, have the potential to affect the quantity, quality, timing, and spatial distribution of water available to satisfy the many demands placed on the resource by society. In this work a methodology for the evaluation of impact on soil moisture concentration and direct surface runoff is presented. The methodology integrates stochastic models of hydroclimatic input variables with a model of water balance in the soil. This allows the derivation of the probability distribution of soil moisture concentration and direct surface runoff for different combinations of climate and soil characteristics, ranging from humid to semi-arid and arid. These PDFs asses, in a comprehensive manner, the impact that climate change have on soil moisture and runoff and allow the water resources planner to make more educated decisions in the planning and design of water resources systems. The methodology was applied to three sites in Texas. To continue in the line of research suggested by Delworth and Manabe the authors computed the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the spectra of both precipitation inputs and soil moisture concentration outputs for all scenarios of climate change

  6. Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldey, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

  7. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  8. Global warming considerations in northern Boreal forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slaughter, C.W.

    1993-01-01

    The northern boreal forests of circumpolar lands are of special significance to questions of global climate change. Throughout its range, these forests are characterized by a relatively few tree species, although they may exhibit great spatial heterogeneity. Their ecosystems are simpler than temperate systems, and ecosystem processes are strongly affected by interactions between water, the landscape, and the biota. Northern boreal forest vegetation patterns are strongly influenced by forest fires, and distribution of forest generally coincides with occurrence of permafrost. Boreal forest landscapes are extremely sensitive to thermal disruption; global warming may result in lasting thermal and physical degradation of soils, altered rates and patterns of vegetation succession, and damage to engineered structures. A change in fire severity and frequency is also a significant concern. The total carbon pool of boreal forests and their associated peatlands is significant on a global scale; this carbon may amount to 10-20% of the global carbon pool. A change in latitudinal or elevational treeline has been suggested as a probable consequence of global warming. More subtle aspects of boreal forest ecosystems which may be affected by global warming include the depth of the active soil layer, the hydrologic cycle, and biological attributes of boreal stream systems. 48 refs., 2 figs

  9. Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilbert, David W

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

  10. Recognition of people with an opinion that nuclear power generation causes global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukue, Chiyokazu

    2004-01-01

    Almost a half of the people are thinking that nuclear power generation causes global warming. We conducted a survey in order to explore the recognition and background for the thinking of people. Consequently, the existence of the right knowledge ''nuclear power generation does not discharge carbon dioxide at the time of power generation'' influenced most the idea which nuclear power generation prevents global warming. On the other hand, the misunderstanding as ''the radioactive material produced from a nuclear power plant advances global warming'' has influenced the idea considered as a cause, and it is though that this misunderstanding depend on the negative image to nuclear power generation. Moreover, many people do not recognize the mechanism of global warming, and it is thought that they confuse global warming with the other global environment problems, such as acid rain or ozone layer destruction. Therefore, it is required to spread the knowledge that nuclear power generation does not discharge carbon dioxide, and to promote the understanding that a radioactive material is not related to global warming. Furthermore, it is required to distinguish global warming from the other global environment problems, and to explain them intelligibly. (author)

  11. Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

    2018-05-01

    The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

  12. Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

  13. Cosmic rays and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erlykin, A.D. [P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Sloan, T. [Lancaster University (United Kingdom); Wolfendale, A.W. [Durham University (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-01

    The possible effects of cosmic rays on clouds could contribute to global warming. The argument is that the observed increased solar activity during the last century caused a decrease in the ionization due to cosmic rays since the lower energy cosmic particles are deflected by the magnetic field created by the increasing solar wind. This would lead to a decrease in cloud cover allowing more heating of the earth by the sun. Meteorological data combined to solar activity observations and simulations show that any effect of solar activity on clouds and the climate is likely to be through irradiance rather than cosmic rays. Since solar irradiance transfers 8 orders of magnitude more energy to the atmosphere than cosmic rays it is more plausible that this can produce a real effect. The total contribution of variable solar activity to global warming is shown to be less than 14% of the total temperature rise. (A.C.)

  14. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  15. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  16. Global Swindle or Global Warming. How technology can deal with it; Global Swindle of Global Warming. Hoe moet de techniek hiermee omgaan?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeiler, W. [Kropman Installatietechniek, Breda (Netherlands)

    2008-02-15

    Some people are still not convinced that human-caused global warming is taking place. The media tend to pay attention to both proponents and opponents of their points of view. The impression is that the subject is still widely open to debate. One of the best-known contributions is Al Gore's film 'An Inconvenient Truth'. Channel 4 Television in the United Kingdom countered Gore's arguments with the documentary 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' (TGGWS), a production which went on to enjoy worldwide media exposure. Both Al Gore and the makers of TGGWS play on the viewer's emotions. The Climate Portal, the Dutch website of the Platform for Communication on Climate Change (PCCC), examines the arguments presented in TGGWS in the light of current knowledge on climate change. It is also clear from the recently published Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, that not one of the arguments of TGGWS is scientifically valid. The makers of the film created arguments by manipulating graphs and making selective use of the data. [Dutch] Voor sommige mensen is het nog steeds niet aannemelijk dat we te maken hebben met de effecten van 'Global Warming'. In de media worden voor- en tegenstanders aan het woord gelaten. Hierdoor ontstaat een beeld dat er nog veel discussie over dit onderwerp mogelijk is. Het meest bekend is AI Gore's 'An Inconvenient truth', maar als antwoord daarop heeft het Engelse Channel 4 de documentaire 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' (TGGWS), ook een wereldtournee door de media gemaakt. Zowel Al Gore als de makers van deze documentaire spelen in op de emoties van het publiek. Op het klimaatportaal, de site van het Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC) worden de beweringen in TGGWS in de context van de kennis over klimaatverandering geplaatst. Daaruit blijkt, zoals onder andere in het recent verschenen vierde Assessment Report van het IPCC te lezen is, dat geen van de in de TGGWS

  17. CERN plans global-warming experiment

    CERN Multimedia

    De Laine, M

    1998-01-01

    A controversial theory that proposes that cosmic rays are responsible for global warming, is going to be tested at CERN. Experimentalists will use a cloud chamber to mimic the Earth's atmosphere in order to try and find out if cloud formation is influenced by solar activity (1 page).

  18. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  19. Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z; Footitt, S; Tang, A; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-01-01

    Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.

    2016-12-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

  1. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  2. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-03-09

    century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human

  3. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  4. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-06-06

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

  5. Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

  6. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

  7. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  8. Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. [Monograph

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    A summary of research conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and published by H. Flohn in 1977 updates the original data to March 1980. The work explores the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic in that it gains insights into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. Although paleoclimatic knowledge is limited, no complete model of the climatic system is available. This research uses both approaches, combining the two to some extent. 10 figures.

  9. Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

    2017-05-03

    Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

  10. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  11. Greenhouse effect. DOE's programs and activities relevant to the global warming phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Robert E. Jr.; Iager, Richard E.; Che, Deborah

    1990-03-01

    While considerable understanding of global climate systems has been gained in the past few years, major sources of uncertainty remain, including the role played by factors such as cloud cover, oceans, and vegetation growth. To help fill these information gaps, DOE undertakes direct research and collects data needed for carbon and climate system models used to predict potential climate changes. These direct research and development efforts represent a requested $28 million in fiscal year 1990 funds, an increase of about $5 million over fiscal year 1989 funding. DOE also conducts a wide range of other research development and demonstration programs it considers indirectly related to the global warming issue, including efforts to increase energy efficiencies, promote conservation, and develop non-fossil energy technologies. For fiscal year 1990, DOE requested about $1.3 billion for these program areas, about $330 million more than the fiscal year 1989 funding level. In these program areas DOE has not established any written criteria or guidance to give special priority to projects on the basis of their relevance or potential impact on global climate change. Senior DOE officials stated that management considers the issue when making funding decisions. In July 1989, the Secretary of Energy established six principles that will form DOE's approach to the global climate change issue, and stated that the issue will be a central part of DOE's efforts to develop a new National Energy Strategy. In addition, several management initiatives have been taken that were related to the issue. These efforts have included compiling an inventory of DOE programs relevant to the issue, organizing a global warming conference, and establishing a DOE Climate Issue Response Group. Public and private organizations, including the Environmental Protection Agency and the World Resources Institute, have made many proposals to address global warming. Generally, the proposals suggested increasing

  12. Estimation of the Carbon Footprint and Global Warming Potential in Rice Production Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastan, S.; Soltani, F.; Noormohamadi, G.; Madani, H.; Yadi, R.

    2016-01-01

    Optimal management approaches can be adopted in order to increase crop productivity and lower the carbon footprint of grain products. The objective of this study was to estimate the carbon (C) footprint and global warming potential of rice production systems. In this experiment, rice production systems (including SRI, improved and conventional) were studied. All activities, field operations and data in production methods and at different input rates were monitored and recorded during 2012. Results showed that average global warming potential across production systems was equal to 2803.25 kg CO 2 -eq ha-1. The highest and least global warming potential were observed in the SRI and conventional systems, respectively. global warming potential per unit energy input was the least and most in SRI and conventional systems, respectively. Also, the SRI and conventional systems had the maximum and minimum global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. SRI and conventional system had the greatest and least global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. Therefore, the optimal management approach found in SRI resulted in a reduction in GHGs, global warming potential and the carbon footprint.

  13. Nuclear power and global warming: a first cost-benefit calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper investigates the costs and benefits of a modest nuclear power programme in the European Union to combat the threat of global warming. The nuclear programme is found to bring a double benefit. The first and more obvious benefit is that the economic impacts of global warming are reduced. The second benefit is counter-intuitive; most people would expect it to be a cost. It comes from the stimulus to the economy from the construction of the nuclear plant, which, with the recycling of carbon tax revenues, offsets its construction and operating costs, and may even cause consumers' expenditure to rise. Calculations in this paper show that over the period to 2100 the mean net present value of the first benefit is 6 billion European Currency Units (ECU; 1 ECU is about Dollars 1), while the second benefit has a mean net present value of 159 billion ECU. However both benefits, particularly the second, are still very uncertain, to the extent that even their sign is not yet definitely established. (author)

  14. Global Warming: Knowledge and Views of Iranian Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Yazdanparast, Sousan Salehpour, Mohammad Reza Masjedi, Seyed Mohammad Seyedmehdi, Eddie Boyes, Martin Stanisstreet, Mirsaeed Attarchi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Study of students’ knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students’ knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed “if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter” and “incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming”. 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought “the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide” and “presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect”. 68.4% believed “not using cars so much is a cure for global warming”. While a student’s ‘cognitive score’ could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P0.05. In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students’ mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

  15. The core of the global warming problem: energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, E.

    2005-01-01

    From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an 'energy balance' problem. The heat (energy) accumulation in the earth and its atmosphere is the cause of global warming. This accumulation is mainly due to the imbalance of (solar) energy reaching and the energy leaving the earth, caused by 'greenhouse effect' in which the CO 2 and other greenhouse gases play a critical role; so that balance of the energy entering and leaving the earth should be the key to solve the problem. Currently in the battle of tackling the global warming, we mainly focus on the development of CO 2 -related measures, i.e., emission reduction, CO 2 sequestration, and CO 2 recycle technologies. It is right in technical aspect, because they are attempting to thin the CO 2 'blanket' around the earth. However, 'Energy' that is the core of the problem has been overlooked, at least in management/policy aspect. This paper is proposing an 'Energy Credit' i.e., the energy measure concept as an alternative to the 'CO 2 credit' that is currently in place in the proposed emission trading scheme. The proposed energy credit concept has the advantages such as covering broad activities related to the global warming and not just direct emissions. Three examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the energy measure and its advantages over the CO 2 credit concept. (Author)

  16. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

    2009-01-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

  17. Why do they think nuclear power is origin of global warming effect?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukae, Chiyokazu

    2005-01-01

    A questionnaire on nuclear power was conducted on 1500 adults in Kansai area, Japan, from October 9 to November 9, 2003. The recovery ratio was 71.0%. The results showed that 34% of them thought the nuclear power was protection of the global warming effect and 35% it was origin of the effect. It was analyzed by the logistic regression analysis method on whether the nuclear power was protection of global warming effect or not. About 43% of them recognized the nuclear power contributed to control carbon dioxide emission, and the mechanism of global warming effect. However, 35% of them did not recognize the mechanism and thought radioactive materials emission gave bad effects on the global environment. To make recognize the nuclear power is a good power source for protection of the global warming effect, the amount of reduction of carbon dioxide emission by nuclear power had to be shown. It is the shortest way for solution of the global warming problem to prove worthy of nuclear power's trust by safety and stable operation. (S.Y.)

  18. Air Pollution Impacts on Global Crop Productivity and Nitrogen Depositio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heald, C. L.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.

    2014-12-01

    The biosphere is undeniably transformed by air pollution. Emissions, climate change, and land use change are all expected to substantially alter future air quality. In this presentation, we discuss near-term projections (2050) of air quality impacts on both crop productivity and nitrogen deposition. First, we contrast the relative impacts of ozone air pollution and a warming climate on global crop yields. To do so, we define statistical crop yield functions to a warming climate based on the historical record. We combine these relationships with ozone-damage estimates and apply these to future air quality and climate projections from a global coupled chemistry-climate model (CESM). We find substantial variability in the response, with certain regions or crops more sensitive to ozone pollution and others more sensitive to warming. This work demonstrates that air quality management is a key element to ensuring global food security. Second, we examine the relative impacts of anthropogenic emissions, climate change, and land use change on global nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen deposition has rapidly increased over the Anthropocene. Excess deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems can lead to eutrophication of waters, and a decrease in biodiversity. We use the CESM to investigate two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) and focus our analysis on the impacts on diverse ecoregions in North America, Europe, and Asia.

  19. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Bill

    1993-01-01

    Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

  20. Global Warming Blame the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Calder, N

    1997-01-01

    Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

  1. Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the 'clean development mechanism''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearnside, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include definition of the units of carbon (permanent sequestration versus carbon-ton-years, the latter being most appropriate for forest options), the means of crediting forest reserve establishment, adoption of discounting or other time-preference weighting for carbon, definition of the accounting method (avoided emissions versus stock maintenance), and mechanism to allow program contributions to be counted, rather than restricting consideration to free-standing projects. Silvicultural plantations offer opportunities for carbon benefits, but have high social impacts in the Brazilian context. Plantations also inherently compete with deforestation reduction options for funds. Forest management has been proposed as a global warming response option, but the assignment of any value to time makes this unattractive in terms of carbon benefits. However, reduced-impact logging can substantially reduce emissions over those from traditional logging practices. Slowing deforestation is the major opportunity offered by Brazil. Slowing deforestation will require understanding its causes and creating functional models capable of generating land-use change scenarios with and without different policy changes and other activities. Brazil already has a number of programs designed to slow deforestation, but the continued rapid loss of forest highlights the vast gulf that exists between the magnitude of the problem and the

  2. Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however,...

  3. Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G. [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Bangalore (India); Indian Institute of Science, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong [Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA (United States); Nemani, Rama [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO{sub 2} changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ''geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. (orig.)

  4. The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

  5. Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its

  6. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nicholas; Joffe, Helene

    2013-01-01

    The present study utilises social representations theory to explore common sense conceptualisations of global warming risk using an in-depth, qualitative methodology. Fifty-six members of a British, London-based 2008 public were initially asked to draw or write four spontaneous "first thoughts or feelings" about global warming. These were then explored via an open-ended, exploratory interview. The analysis revealed that first thoughts, either drawn or written, often mirrored the images used by the British press to depict global warming visually. Thus in terms of media framings, it was their visual rather than their textual content that was spontaneously available for their audiences. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of interview data revealed that global warming was structured around three themata: self/other, natural/unnatural and certainty/uncertainty, reflecting the complex and often contradictory nature of common sense thinking in relation to risk issues.

  8. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  9. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

  10. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-01-01

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

  11. Collection, transfer and transport of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisted, Rasmus; Larsen, Anna Warberg; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    ) emissions were quantified. The emission factors were assigned a global warming potential (GWP) and aggregated into global warming factors (GWFs), which express the potential contribution to global warming from collection, transport and transfer of 1 tonne of wet waste. Six examples involving collection...

  12. Priority setting of strategies and mechanisms for limiting global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, S.J.L.

    1994-01-01

    Scientific communities have reached a consensus that increases of greenhouse gas emission will result in climatic warming and sea level rises despite existing uncertainties. Major uncertainties include the sensitivities of climate changes in terms of timing, magnitude, and scales of regional changes. Socioeconomic uncertainties encompass population and economic growth, changes in technology, future reliance on fossil fuel, and policies compiled to stabilize the global warming. Moreover, increase in world population coupled with limited resources will increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and social systems. Global warming has become an international concern since the destinies of all nations are closely interwoven by this issue and how nations deal with it. Appropriate strategies and mechanisms are need to slow down the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Questionnaires were sent to 150 experts in 30 countries to evaluate such strategies and mechanisms for dealing with global warming, from both the domestic and international perspectives. This paper will focus primarily on strategy selection

  13. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

    2017-06-01

    To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

  14. Magnetic fusion development for global warming suppression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiangang; Zhang Jie; Duan Xuru

    2010-01-01

    Energy shortage and environmental pollution are two critical issues for human beings in the 21st century. There is an urgent need for new sustainable energy to meet the fast growing demand for clean energy. Fusion is one of the few options which may be able to satisfy the requirement for large scale sustainable energy generation and global warming suppression and therefore must be developed as quickly as possible. Fusion research has been carried out for the past 50 years. It is too long to wait for another 50 years to generate electricity by fusion. A much more aggressive approach should be taken with international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.

  15. Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

    2013-01-01

    The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

  16. Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

    2011-01-01

    Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

  17. Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

    2018-02-01

    Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

  18. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  19. Transportation in El Salvador: a commitment to global warming management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lafleur, A.

    2001-01-01

    San Salvador City, El Salvador, is a city plagued with air pollution caused by traffic and congestion. Forecasts indicate the problem is likely to worsen in the coming years. Delcan International Corporation was commissioned by the Ministry of Public Works of El Salvador to study and evaluate the design and alternatives to a Ring Road circling San Salvador. The project, financed by the Inter-American Development Bank, is discussed in this paper, along with a summary of aspects of an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) and the environmental impacts assessment conducted. Human-induced changes in climate, increasing levels of greenhouse gases are referred to as global warming of climate change. Water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone are the main greenhouse gases, with carbon dioxide representing the biggest threat. Approximately 14 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions are caused by fumes emanating from motor-vehicle gasoline-fuels, and 50 per cent of those are produced in developing countries. Motor vehicles produce 60 to 90 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in Latin America urban centres. Some ways of reducing carbon dioxide emissions are: reduce travel, use more efficient vehicles, improving existing vehicle technologies and fuels, improving traveller behaviour, reducing congestion. ITS could be a valuable tool for measuring the effectiveness of measures designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The Intelligent Transportation System assists with the evaluation of the optimization and enlargement of existing roads, especially downtown, the construction of a highway around the city. This evaluation includes an environmental impact assessment, a traffic study and the highway final design. The Government of El Salvador has shown its commitment to sustainable practices toward global warming

  20. Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

    2011-01-15

    Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

  1. Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B.; Muris, C.

    2011-01-01

    Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

  2. Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

  3. Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-04-01

    Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global

  4. Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...

  5. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  6. A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2012-04-15

    Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

  7. Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

    2012-06-01

    Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

  8. The carbon cycle and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    Five land-use-based approaches can be used to slow the buildup of CO 2 in the atmosphere: slowing or stopping the loss of existing forests, thus preserving current carbon reservoirs; adding to the planet's vegetative cover through reforestation or other means, thus enlarging living terrestrial carbon reservoirs; increasing the carbon stored in nonliving carbon reservoirs such as agricultural soils; increasing the carbon stored in artificial reservoirs, including timber products; and substituting sustainable biomass energy sources for fossil fuel consumption, thus reducing energy-related carbon emissions. These approaches are all based on the same basic premise: adding to the planet's net carbon stores in vegetative cover or soil, or preventing any net loss, will help moderate global warming by keeping atmospheric CO 2 levels lower than they would otherwise be. Because biotic policy options appear capable of contributing significantly to the mitigation of global warming while also furthering many other public policy objectives, their role deserves careful consideration on a country-by-country basis

  9. Possible impacts of global warming on tundra and boreal forest ecosystems - comparison of some biogeochemical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploechl, M.; Cramer, W.

    1995-06-01

    Global warming affects the magnitude of carbon, water and nitrogen fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere as well as the distribution of vegetation types. Biogeochemical models, global as well as patch models, can be used to estimate the differences between the mean values of annual net primary production (NPP) for the present and for future climate scenarios. Both approaches rely on the prescribed pattern of vegetation types. Structural, rule based models can predict such patterns, provided that vegetation and climate are in equilibrium. The coupling of biogeochemical and structural models gives the opportunity to test the sensitivity of biogeochemical processes not only to climatic change but also to biome shifts. Whether the annual mean NPP of a vegetation type increses or decreases depends strongly on the assumptions about a CO{sub 2} fertilization effect and nitrogen cycling. Results from our coupled model show that, given that direct CO{sub 2} effects are uncertain, (i) average NPP of these northern biomes might decrease under global warming, but (ii) total NPP of the region would increase, due to the northward shift of the taiga biome. (orig.)

  10. Global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahimi, N.; Karbassi, A. R.; Abbaspour, M.

    2002-01-01

    Among the efforts to slow the potential for climate change are measures to reduce emissions of CO 2 from energy use, and promote long-term storage of carbon in forests and soils. Important environmental changes due to climate change and global warming pose potentially significant risks to humans, social systems, and natural world. Many uncertainties remain regarding precise timing,magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change and the extent to which mankind and nature can adapt to any changes. Estimating technical / economical / environmental potentials for reducing CO 2 emission in energy sector and preventing of global warming is one of the main activities, which have been performed for the first time in Iran. By use of 26 factors, model on global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran in long-medium and short term determine decreasing amount of CO 2 emission. The results and also method of providing this model will be described in this paper

  11. Literature review on the greenhouse effect and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    English, M.; Petri, H.; Wong, R.K.W.; Kochtubajda, B.

    1990-08-01

    A literature review of recent (1988-1990) publications on global warming and climate change was carried out by the Alberta Research Council. The objectives of the project were to develop a listing of relevant citations, review the publications, prepare a short summary of the contents of each, and develop statistics with respect to the degree to which scientific consensus exists on the various topics of interest. The bibliography contains 1,557 citations, and a total of 501 publications were reviewed. Topics of interest include computer modelling of world climate, potential impacts of climate change, potential strategies for responding to climate change, and technological solutions. Statistical results are presented of numbers of papers reviewed addressing types of emission, time of effective doubling of greenhouse gases, global temperature increase predicted for effective doubling of greenhouse gases, temperature increase in northern lattitudes for an effective doubling of greenhouse gases, components of atmosphere that are changing, potential impacts on agriculture, forestry, and health, suggested emission limitations, and suggested technological solutions. 4 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs

  12. Effects of global warming on respiratory diseases

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abe Olugbenga

    and tuberculosis), parasitic lung diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ... Methods: A literature search on global warming and respiratory diseases was carried out through the internet .... (COPD) The main factor to consider here is.

  13. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  14. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  15. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

    2018-05-01

    A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food

  16. Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

  17. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

  18. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  19. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

    2017-05-01

    Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

  20. Review: Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Setyawan AD. 2009. Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future. Nusantara Bioscience 1: 43-52. Lessons from the past shows that global warming and glaciation is a natural cycle of repeated, the trigger factor is not always the same, but global warming is always accompanied by elevated levels of CO2 and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which cause the other rising global temperatures. Present and destruction of various plants and other living makhluh continue to happen from time to time. Every era has its own life form, as a mirror of global environmental conditions at the time. Biodiversity is not always the same between one period of global warming are with the next global warming, or one period of glaciation that one with the next glaciation, although new breeds always show traces the evolution of his ancestors. Man is one of the agents of global warming that began with the development of agricultural systems since 8000 years ago. The impact of climate change due to global warming should continue to be wary of. Based on past experience, global warming is always followed by mass extinctions, but various forms of life will still survive even though its shape is almost certainly not the same as before. Living organisms can survive it will evolve into new taxa that are different from its parental taxa. Humans who were present at that time probably were not a men who are present at this time, given Homo sapiens may have been extinct for not being able to adapt or otherwise has evolved into a new man who may no longer shows characteristics of human wisdom.

  1. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  2. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  3. A New Type of Debate for Global Warming and Scientific Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expanding on some ideas introduced in the paper by Albe and Gombert (2012) "Students' communication, argumentation and knowledge in a citizen' conference on global warming", I explore two issues relevant to their work: global warming (GW) as a socioscientific controversy and scientific literacy in regards to climate change science. For the first…

  4. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H.; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP 100 ), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO 2 -eq. tonne −1 to net saving of 670 kg CO 2 -eq. tonne −1 of MSWM

  5. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Habib, Komal, E-mail: koh@kbm.sdu.dk [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohr’s Alle 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark); Schmidt, Jannick H.; Christensen, Per [Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 13, DK-9220 Aalborg OE (Denmark)

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • Five scenarios are compared based on different waste management systems from 1970 to 2010. • Technology development for incineration and vehicular exhaust system throughout the time period is considered. • Compared scenarios show continuous improvement regarding environmental performance of waste management system. • Energy and material recovery from waste account for significant savings of Global Warming Potential (GWP) today. • Technology development for incineration has played key role in lowering the GWP during past five decades. - Abstract: The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP{sub 100}), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} to net saving of 670 kg CO{sub 2}-eq. tonne{sup −1} of MSWM.

  6. NASA: Black soot fuels global warming

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    New research from NASA's Goddard Space Center scientists suggests emissions of black soot have been altering the way sunlight reflects off Earth's snow. The research indicates the soot could be responsible for as much as 25 percent of global warming over the past century (assorted news items, 1 paragraph each).

  7. I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malott, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    In the provocatively titled "I'll Save the World from Global Warming--Tomorrow," Dick Malott says that although we all want to do the right thing to help the environment, whether it's buying and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) or replacing an energy-guzzling appliance with a more efficient one, we put it off because there's no…

  8. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

    2018-04-01

    Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

  9. Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Frölicher, Thomas L

    2016-12-23

    Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Hydrological Responses of Chaobai River Basin under 1.5° and 2.0° Global Warming Using Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Y.; Ma, J.

    2017-12-01

    The global warming of 1.5° and 2.0° proposed in Paris Agreement has became the iconic threshold of climate change impact research and discussion. In order to provide useful reference to the effective water resource management and planning for the capital city of China, this study aims to assessing the potential impact of 1.5° and 2.0° global warming on river discharge in Chaobai River Basin(CRB) which is main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to simulate the future discharge in CRB under 1.5° and 2.0° global warming respectively. On this basis, climate change impact on annual and monthly discharge, seasonal discharge distribution, extreme monthly discharge in CRB were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that the average annual discharge will increase slightly and more concentrate in midsummer and early autumn under 1.5° global warming. When the global average temperature rise 2°, the annual discharge in CRB show an evident positive tendency with the magnitude increasing by approximate 30% and the extreme monthly runoff will significantly increase. However, the proportion of discharge in summer which is the peak water usage period will decline. It is obvious that the increment of 0.5° will lead to more flood events and bring great challenge to water resource management. There is a certain uncertainty in the projection of temperature, precipitation and discharge, by contrast, uncertainty of discharge projection is far greater than that of other two meteorological elements. Compared with RCPs, GCMs are proved to be the main factor which are responsible for the impact uncertainty in CRB under two global warming horizons. The uncertainty will be larger as the warming magnitude increase. In a word

  11. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  12. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-13

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  13. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  14. Global Warming Potential Of A Waste Refinery Using Enzymatic Treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonini, Davide; Astrup, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    and fossil resources. This is especially important with respect to the residual waste (i.e. the remains after source-separation and separate collection) which is typically incinerated or landfilled. In this paper the energy and Global Warming performance of a pilot-scale waste refinery for the enzymatic...... plants and utilization of the liquid fraction for biogas production turned out to be the best options with respect to energy and Global Warming performance....

  15. Teaching cases on transportation and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    This project developed a series of three teaching cases that explore the implications of global : warming for transportation policy in the United States. The cases are intended to be used in : graduate and undergraduate courses on transportation poli...

  16. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  17. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  18. The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arent, Douglas J.; Wise, Alison; Gelman, Rachel

    2011-01-01

    Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness - and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.

  19. The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arent, Douglas J., E-mail: doug.arent@nrel.gov; Wise, Alison; Gelman, Rachel

    2011-07-15

    Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness - and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.

  20. The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

    2018-05-29

    Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

  1. A methodological note on the making of causal statements in the debate on anthropogenic global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J.K.

    2011-01-01

    At best, the empirical evidence for human impact on climate change, more specifically, the anthropogenic global warming (AGW), is based on correlational research. That is, no experiment has been carried out that confirms or falsifies the causal hypothesis put forward by the International Panel on

  2. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  3. Book ReviewL Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Astriani

    2015-01-01

    Global Warming is part of Greenhaven’s Contemporary Issues Companion series published by, Thomson Gale on 2005. Each volume of the anthologyseries focuses on a topic of current interest, presenting informative and thought-provoking selection written from wide-variety viewpoints. It is an ideal launching point for research on a particular topic. Each anthology in the series is composed of readings taken from an extensive gamut of resources, including periodical, newspapers, books, governmentdo...

  4. Comparing the urbanization and global warming impacts on extreme rainfall characteristics in Southern China Pearl River Delta megacity based on dynamical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, K. Y.; Tam, C. Y.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that urban land use can significantly influence the local temperature, precipitation and meteorology through altering land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture and heat in urban areas. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase ( 5-10%) on the intensity of extreme rainfall over Southeast China; it is projected to increase further according to the latest IPCC reports. In this study, we assess how urbanization and global warming together might impact on heavy precipitation characteristics over the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, located in southern China. This is done by dynamically downscaling GFDL-ESM2M simulations for the present and future (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). Over the PRD area, the WRF model is integrated at a resolution of 2km x 2km. To focus on extreme events, episodes covering daily rainfall intensity above the 99th percentile in Southeast China in the GFDL-ESM2M daily precipitation datasets were first identified. These extreme episodes were then dynamically downscaled in two parallel experiments with the following model designs: one with anthropogenic heat flux (AH) = 0 Wm-2 and the other with peak AH = 300 Wm-2 in the AH diurnal cycle over the urban domain. Results show that, with AH in urban area, the urban 2m-temperature can rise by about 2oC. This in turn leads to an increase of the mean as well as the extreme rain rates by 10-15% in urban domain. The latter is comparable to the impact of global warming alone, according to downscaling experiments for the RCP8.5 scenario. Implications of our results on urban effects on extreme rainfall under a warming background climate will be discussed.

  5. Decarbonization and sequestration for mitigating global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, M.

    2000-01-01

    Mitigating the global warming greenhouse effect while maintaining a fossil fuel economy, requires improving efficiency of utilization of fossil fuels, use of high hydrogen content fossil fuels, decarbonization of fossil fuels, and sequestering of carbon and CO 2 applied to all the sectors of the economy, electric power generation, transportation, and industrial, and domestic power and heat generation. Decarbonization means removal of carbon as C or CO 2 either before or after fossil fuel combustion and sequestration means disposal of the recovered C or CO 2 including its utilization. Removal and recovery of CO 2 from power generation plants and sequestration in the ocean represents one possibility of making a major impact on reducing CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. This paper will briefly review the progress made in ocean disposal and present some alternative schemes. (author)

  6. Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, David

    2018-02-01

    A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

  7. Enhanced Global Monsoon in Present Warm Period Due to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate global monsoon precipitation (GMP changes between the Present Warm Period (PWP, 1900–2000 and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250–1850 by performing millennium sensitivity simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1. Three millennium simulations are carried out under time-varying solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas (GHG forcing, respectively, from 501 to 2000 AD. Compared to the global-mean surface temperature of the cold LIA, the global warming in the PWP caused by high GHG concentration is about 0.42 °C, by strong solar radiation is 0.14 °C, and by decreased volcanic activity is 0.07 °C. The GMP increases in these three types of global warming are comparable, being 0.12, 0.058, and 0.055 mm day−1, respectively. For one degree of global warming, the GMP increase induced by strong GHG forcing is 2.2% °C−1, by strong solar radiation is 2.8% °C−1, and by decreased volcanic forcing is 5.5% °C−1, which means that volcanic forcing is most effective in terms of changing the GMP among these three external forcing factors. Under volcanic inactivity-related global warming, both monsoon moisture and circulation are enhanced, and the enhanced circulation mainly occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH. The circulation, however, is weakened in the other two cases, and the GMP intensification is mainly caused by increased moisture. Due to large NH volcanic aerosol concentration in the LIA, the inter-hemispheric thermal contrast of PWP global warming tends to enhance NH monsoon circulation. Compared to the GHG forcing, solar radiation tends to warm low-latitude regions and cause a greater monsoon moisture increase, resulting in a stronger GMP increase. The finding in this study is important for predicting the GMP in future anthropogenic global warming when a change in natural solar or volcanic activity occurs.

  8. Importance of food waste pre-treatment efficiency for global warming potential in life cycle assessment of anaerobic digestion systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsson, My; Naroznova, Irina; Møller, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    treatment of the refuse. The objective of this study was to investigate how FW pre-treatment efficiency impacts the environmental performance of waste management, with respect to global warming potential (GWP). The modeling tool EASETECH was used to perform consequential LCA focusing on the impact...

  9. Microwave sounding units and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

    1991-01-01

    A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

  10. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-06

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  11. Slowing global warming biotically - Options for the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    Each of the five biotic approaches introduced in Chapter 2 is applicable to some extent in the US. Taking US land-use characteristics into account, a menu of policy options tailored to US carbon storage opportunities is presented. Several of the options are capable of significantly reducing net US carbon emissions; several offer corollary benefits in areas other than global warming mitigation. The time frame and costs of the different options vary widely, although in most cases some level of implementation appears economically justified even without considering global warming. The approach, projected costs, and advantages of seven different policy options are profiled

  12. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  13. Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

    2008-02-01

    Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

  14. Solar Panels reduce both global warming and Urban Heat Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valéry eMasson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The production of solar energy in cities is clearly a way to diminish our dependency to fossil fuels, and is a good way to mitigate global warming by lowering the emission of greenhouse gases. However, what are the impacts of solar panels locally ? To evaluate their influence on urban weather, it is necessary to parameterize their effects within the surface schemes that are coupled to atmospheric models. The present paper presents a way to implement solar panels in the Town Energy Balance scheme, taking account of the energy production (for thermal and photovoltaic panels, the impact on the building below and feedback towards the urban micro-climate through radiative and convective fluxes. A scenario of large but realistic deployment of solar panels on the Paris metropolitan area is then simulated. It is shown that solar panels, by shading the roofs, slightly increases the need for domestic heating (3%. In summer however, the solar panels reduce the energy needed for air-conditioning (by 12% and also the Urban Heat Island (UHI: 0.2K by day and up to 0.3K at night. These impacts are larger than those found in previous works, because of the use of thermal panels (that are more efficient than photovoltaic panels and the geographical position of Paris, which is relatively far from the sea. This means that it is not influenced by sea breezes, and hence that its UHI is stronger than for a coastal city of the same size. But this also means that local adaptation strategies aiming to decrease the UHI will have more potent effects. In summary, the deployment of solar panels is good both globally, to produce renewable energy (and hence to limit the warming of the climate and locally, to decrease the UHI, especially in summer, when it can constitute a health threat.

  15. Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

    2016-09-20

    Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  17. Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

    2014-11-14

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

    2018-03-01

    In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

  19. Effects of global warming on floods and droughts in the Caribbean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Kailas

    2004-01-01

    The Caribbean islands stretch in an arc from Cuba, south of Florida, to Trinidad and Tobago, north of the South American coast. The islands range in size from 100,000 square kilometers to 100 square kilometers, with populations ranging from ten million to less than ten thousand people. There is a wide range of rainfall in the region, occurring mainly from the Inter-Tropical convergence Zone, Tropical Waves and Hurricanes. There are also extended periods of droughts in the dry season. As a result the islands suffer from droughts as well as floods. These phenomena can have devastating results on the economies of the islands, resulting in extreme hardships for the population as well as forced shifting of population centers. Change of precipitation patterns as a result of Global warming can only worsen the situation. In this paper the author attempts an investigation into the effects of global warming and the resulting impacts in terms of droughts, floods on the Caribbean islands and on coastal areas of continental countries in the Caribbean. Vulnerability and risks are also investigated in terms of these phenomena. (Author)

  20. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  1. Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Joshi, Manoj; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Park, Hoonyoung; Kim, Baek-Min; Feng, Song

    2018-01-01

    Aridity—the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)—is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification1-6. However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability—defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)—is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies7-10. Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 °C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 °C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts.

  2. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  3. Global warming and its implication to emission reduction strategies for residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Chen, Dong; Ren, Zhengen [CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P.O. Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190 (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Carbon emission reduction schemes by improving residential building energy performance are often developed and assessed upon the assumption of current or stationary climates. This study investigated the heating and cooling (H-C) energy requirements and corresponding carbon emissions of residential houses in different climatic conditions in relation to global warming. This included assessing and quantifying the efficacy of emission reduction schemes based on emission reduction capacity (ERC). ERC represents the percentage of projected carbon emission reduction under changing climate in a specific year compared to the expected reduction by a scheme at current or stationary climates. It is shown that in a heating-dominated region with a cold climate or temperate climate with cold winter, ERC is projected to increase (or the projected emission reduction is higher than the expected reduction under the emission reduction scheme) in the presence of global warming. In contrast, in a cooling-dominated region with a hot dry or hot humid climate or an H-C balanced temperate climate, ERC is projected to decline. This implies that emission reductions will be lower than those initially targeted by the emission reduction scheme without consideration of global warming. Additionally, to reflect the changing carbon emission over years due to climate change, the average emission reduction capacity (AERC) was also proposed for the assessment of reduction schemes. It was concluded that the design and assessment of carbon emission reduction schemes for residential buildings need to move beyond its assumptions of a current or stationary climate to take into account climate change impacts. (author)

  4. A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H; Christensen, Per

    2013-09-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hmielowski, Jay D; Feldman, Lauren; Myers, Teresa A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward

    2014-10-01

    There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening. © The Author(s) 2013.

  6. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R.; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H.; Schuurmans, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy. PMID:26473907

  7. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Elgendi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress, improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

  8. Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgendi, Mohamed; Norton, Ian; Brearley, Matt; Fletcher, Richard R; Abbott, Derek; Lovell, Nigel H; Schuurmans, Dale

    2015-10-14

    Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 7 12777 of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.

  9. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  10. Global warming - Time to get things done

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognasse, Olivier; Dumas, Arnaud; Dupin, Ludovic; Moragues, Manuel; Rouaud, Pierre-Olivier

    2016-01-01

    A set of articles is proposed just before the COP22 in Morocco. A first article comments the content of the Paris agreement signed at the end of the COP21, evokes some commitments adopted by various countries to play a role in the struggle against global warming, mentions the various institutional steps before the COP22 in Marrakech, and evokes the commitment of the private sector. A second article highlights that actors of the finance sector trend to take the climate risk always more into account in their investments: this can be noticed with the development of green bonds. Then, in an interview, Nicolas Hulot comments the challenges and stakes of the COP22, outlines that everything is still to be done regarding the struggle against global warming and the decrease of the use of fossil energies, comments political and social consequences, criticizes the behaviour and approach of industries, notably Monsanto, and concludes by the need of a new tax policy. The next article discusses the recent evolutions of energy mixes in different countries and at the World level: slow decrease of carbon share, issue of the importance of nuclear energy, impact of carbon price, development of wind and solar energy everywhere. The other articles concern Morocco. An article then comments the Moroccan energy policy which is characterized by massive investments in green energies even if fossil energies are still prevailing. These developments are financed through a performing system based on public-private partnership. An article addresses the project of rehabilitation of a landfill by Suez in Meknes, and another one a Renault-Nissan factory, near Tangier, where water recycling is remarkable. The last article proposes a brief overview of the development of public and urban transport in Morocco: electric buses, tramways, project of a TGV line

  11. The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Chuanhui; Crane, John; Hornberger, George; Carrico, Amanda

    2015-03-15

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn

  12. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, John; Nuccitelli, Dana; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Skuce, Andrew; Green, Sarah A; Richardson, Mark; Way, Robert; Jacobs, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research. (letter)

  13. Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to

  14. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  15. Metaphors of Primary School Students Relating to the Concept of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogru, Mustafa; Sarac, Esra

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to reveal the metaphors of primary school students (n = 362) relating to the concept of global warming. Data collected by completing the expression of "global warming is like..., because..." of the students were analysed by use of qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. According to findings of…

  16. Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

  17. Hydroelectric power and global environmental problems: benefits and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabot, B.

    1992-01-01

    The risk of global warming is one of the most serious global environmental problems. It is due to the increase of greenhouse gases emissions, mainly because of the use of fossil fuels in the energy sector, particularly for electricity generation. At an international level, experts now agree that measures are to be taken to reduce this risk. In the energy sector, an improvement of energy efficiency and an increase of nuclear electricity generation are often presented as the best available solutions. Renewable energy sources are often presented as a solution with a negligible potential impact, and sometimes, hydro power is even forgotten, or its coasts and its potential impacts on local environment are presented as an obstacle to its positive contribution to the reduction of global warming risk. Without denying the positive impacts of other solutions, this paper explains the possibilities and the benefits of an increased use of hydroelectric power, when implemented with a minimum impact on local environment and with a synergistic effect with the rational use of generated energy, in order to have access to a sustainable development. 19 refs., 6 figs

  18. Canada and global warming: Meeting the challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    Canada accounts for ca 2% of total world emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide emissions are by far the largest greenhouse gas source in Canada, primarily from energy consumption. On a per capita basis, Canada ranks second among industrialized countries in terms of energy related carbon dioxide emissions. Canada's northern geography and climate, its export-oriented economy with energy-intensive resource industries, and its relatively small population dispersed over a wide land mass contribute to this high per-capita value. The effects of global warming induced by greenhouse gases are outlined, including a reduction in water supplies, droughts affecting agriculture and forestry, and large-scale thawing of permafrost. A national strategy to respond to global warming has been developed which includes limiting and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing for potential climatic changes, and improving scientific understanding and predictive capabilities with respect to climate change. Details of this strategy are outlined, including provincial and territorial strategies in partnership with the national strategy. 11 figs., 2 tabs

  19. The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

    2018-03-01

    This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

  20. A global meta-analysis on the impact of management practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from cropland soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural practices contribute significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but little is known about their effects on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of carbon dioxide emissions per unit area or crop yield. Se...

  1. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  2. Is global warming mostly at night?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukla, G.; Quayle, R.G.; Karl, T.

    1994-01-01

    The release of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to substantial future warming. The global mean temperature has indeed risen in recent decades. The causes of the observed warming, and its relation to the greenhouse gas buildup are, however, still debated. One important aspect of the observed temperature change relates to its asymmetry during the day and night. The day-night temperature difference over land in North America, most of Eurasia, Oceania, and portions of Africa and Australia shows a decrease since about 1950. The changes of the daily mean temperature in these areas are principally due to the rising night or early morning temperature, and are accompanied by increasing cloudiness. Their results support the notion that the increase of cloud cover, possibly due to industrial sulfur emissions, mitigates the greenhouse warming. The causes of the changing diurnal temperature range and of the increasing cloudiness will have to be clarified and the future SO 2 emissions reliably projected before any trustworthy prediction of future climates can be made. 37 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3/C(4 transitions and relative seasonality.Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming.Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N. Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.

  4. Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roudier, Philippe; Andersson, Jafet C.M.; Donnelly, Chantal; Feyen, Luc; Greuell, Wouter; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-01-01

    We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results

  5. Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H

    2018-01-30

    One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

  6. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  7. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  8. Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Meng, Yan; Jia, Long

    2018-01-01

    The occurrence frequency and intensity of many natural geohazards, such as landslides, debris flows and earthquakes, have increased in response to global warming. However, the effects of such on development and spread of sinkholes has been largely overlooked. Most research shows that water pumping and related drawdown is the most important factor in sinkhole development, but in this paper evidence is presented which highlights the role played by global warming in causing sinkholes. The state ...

  9. Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  10. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Chen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6, +4.1 (+9.4 and +0.2 % (−1.7 %, respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than

  11. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  12. 40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING General Provision Pt. 98, Subpt. A, Table A-1 Table A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming...

  13. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  14. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  15. Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the

  17. Keeping cool on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

  18. Coping with the Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macro-dynamics of Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Gael; Mc Isaac, Florent; Bovari, Emmanuel; Zatsepina, Ekaterina

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a macro-economic model of endogenous growth that enables to take into consideration both the economic impact of climate change and the pivotal role of private debt. Using a Goodwin-Keen approach, based on the Lotka-Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. Moreover, various damage functions a la Nordhaus and Dietz-Stern reflect the loss in final production due to the temperature increase caused by the rising levels of CO_2 emissions. An empirical estimation of the model at the world-scale enables us to simulate plausible trajectories for the planetary business-as-usual scenario. Our main finding is that, even though the short-run impact of climate change on economic fundamentals may seem prima facie rather minor, its long-run dynamic consequences may lead to an extreme downside. Under plausible circumstances, global warming forces the private sector to leverage in order to compensate for output losses; the private debt overhang may eventually induce a global financial collapse, even before climate change could cause serious damage to the production sector. Under more severe conditions, the interplay between global warming and debt may lead to a secular stagnation followed by a collapse in the second half of this century. We analyze the extent to which slower demographic growth or higher carbon pricing allow a global breakdown to be avoided. The paper concludes by examining the conditions under which the +1.5 C target, adopted by the Paris Agreement (2015), could be reached. (authors)

  19. Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable

  20. Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aptroot, A. [ABL Herbarium, G.v.d. Veenstraat 107, NL-3762 XK Soest (Netherlands)]. E-mail: andreaptroot@wanadoo.nl; Herk, C.M. van [Lichenologisch Onderzoeksbureau Nederland, Goudvink 47, NL-3766 WK Soest (Netherlands)]. E-mail: lonsoest@wxs.nl

    2007-03-15

    Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronouced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming. - Epiphytic and terricolous lichens in Western Europe respond to global warming through their Trentepohlia algae.

  1. Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aptroot, A.; Herk, C.M. van

    2007-01-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronouced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming. - Epiphytic and terricolous lichens in Western Europe respond to global warming through their Trentepohlia algae

  2. Can Global Warming Heat Up Environmental Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzatenta, Claudio

    2008-01-01

    Bronx Community College (CUNY) launched "Global Warming Campus Awareness and Action Days" in celebration of Earth Day, 2007. The purpose of this program was to raise awareness of environmental issues in the college population, especially students. To let more students have a grasp of what Environmental Education (EE) is all about, the author…

  3. Taken by storm : the troubled science, policy and politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essex, C.; McKitrick, R.

    2002-01-01

    This book explains the complex science of climate change and dispels the myth that a global warming crisis will bring chaos and destruction to the world. The authors argue that the underlying science of climate change is uncertain, yet global warming has ceased to be a subject of scientific debate for several years because prominent players have been swayed into the complex dynamics of politics which often dismiss scientific evidence for the sake of precaution. The book demonstrates how fear about global warming has become irrational and suggests that instead of pouring billions of dollars each year into global warming related projects, governments could put the money to better use by helping people in developing countries live better lives. In the chapter devoted to the Kyoto Protocol the authors argue that the time and energy used to negotiate the agreement could have been better invested in serious research on climate change. With ratification now underway, governments will likely focus on implementation rather than the difficult task of understanding climate models. The authors argue that the treaty is unstable and unenforceable in terms of commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. refs., tabs., figs

  4. THEORETICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE GLOBAL WARMING DISCOURSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Moreira Sales de Oliveira

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The global warming derived from human activities issue takes account today of a considerable part of individual and public attention in the political, economic, social and environmental scenario. The theoretical and ideological aspects of the environmental discourses involved are however often ignored. This paper aims to bring to light without attempting to exhaust the discussion on this subject (the ideology that involves interpretations of global climate change. To reach the objective it will be used de theoretical framework of ideology developed by Göhan Therborn (1991 applied to Six Degrees book by Mark Lynas (2009 and An inconvenient truth documentary by Al Gore (2006 analysis. Both works served as an example for the characterization of the point of view that blames human activities for global warming as ideological and how this ideology interpellates the individuals, in order to submit and qualify them.

  5. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  6. Summary the race to reinvent energy and stop global warming

    CERN Document Server

    2013-01-01

    Complete summary of Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn's book: ""Earth: The Sequel: The Race to Reinvent Energy and Stop Global Warming"". This summary of the ideas from Fred Krupp and Miriam Horn's book ""Earth: The Sequel"" explains how capitalism, as the most powerful economic force in the world, is the only engine of change that has the strength to stop global warming. In their book, the authors demonstrate how this can be achieved by installing a cap-and-trade initiative, providing genuine economic incentives for companies and reducing their carbon footprint. This summary explains their theory in

  7. Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Akbar; Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and aims The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase. Key facts Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase. Projections This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia. PMID:23304431

  8. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  9. IMPACT OF Global Warming on Trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nasrullah Khan [COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan); Naeem Abas [2Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Gujrat, Gujrat (Pakistan); Norman Mariun [University Putra Malaysia, Faculty of Engineering, UPM Serdang, Serdang (Malaysia)

    2008-09-30

    Trees store CO{sub 2}, drive food chain, produce oxygen and cause cooling effects through the transpiration process. However, increasing forests to cool the planet needs a lot of care regarding locations and types of trees. Initially it was thought that the city trees fight climate change but later it was found that only tropical trees do the best. Ozone absorption in soil affects its natural carbon sequestration capability. Interaction of plants and soil with changing atmosphere and climate is very complex and not yet understood. Some crops like cotton, wheat and rice are more productive in elevated CO{sub 2} but their response at high temperatures needs further studies (GWDTR, 1997-2007; ITGW, 1990-2008). Use of CO{sub 2} as input raw material in fuel cells might be a revolutionary innovation but there is a long way to go ahead. At this moment we can only start energy education to cope up the time to come. On average CO{sub 2} concentration has been increasing at rate of 2.25ppm/yr from 2004 to 2008 but later from 2007 to 2008 it has been found increasing exponentially at rate of 4ppm/yr. It continues to increase at this rate even after oil peaking then it might exceed 500ppm by 2040-2050. CO{sub 2} concentration in atmosphere was 280 ppm before industrial revolution and in last few centuries it has increased to 385 ppm at an average annual rate of 2 ppm. Weeds normally show poor response to high CO{sub 2} concentrations but crops, fruits and vegetables flourish well. Previous draught cycle was only three years long but recent draught cycle is much longer than earlier (IGWT, 1997-2008). However, few trees in the same constellation are still quite healthy and alive. Some trees were seen dead even close to water canals. Based on literature review and observations recorded in this study it is concluded that high CO{sub 2} induced heat wave (global warming) is responsible for helping beetles and wood ants to eat trees roots and stem to kill them by starvation. The

  10. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem. A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1995-01-01

    The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs

  11. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-08

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

  12. Ethical choices and global climate warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dotto, L

    1994-01-01

    The ethical implications of global warming are discussed, and a summary is presented of a study on ethics and climate change. Deciding the 'best' approaches depends on point of view, whether this be of a Canadian, a Somali, great grandchildren, the Amazon rain forest or a kangaroo. The spectrum of possible actions runs from avoidance to adaptation. Avoidance focuses on strategies to reduce the greenhouse effect by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions or preventing these emissions from reaching the atmosphere. Adaptation strategies help to cope with the negative consequences of allowing emissions to continue. Philosophers and ethicists have expressed a wide range of opinions on the consequences, responsibilities, limitations, and legal mechanisms involved in determining global warming action. A profound shift in corporate thinking is called for, with less emphasis on short-term bottom line. The role of governments and other institutions is debated, and questions are raised about the economic strategies that will best protect the interests of future generations. Energy efficiency and conservation must be reflected in the economic equation. Public cynicism with regard to political leaders is such that they are unlikely to credited with any degree of ethical motivation, a view that may be unwarranted. Ethical principles must become more central in the formulation of policies.

  13. Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those…

  14. Senior Secondary Indian Students' Views about Global Warming, and Their Implications for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhokar, Kiran; Dua, Shweta; Taylor, Neil; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

    2012-01-01

    For individuals to make informed lifestyle choices that may help to reduce global warming, they need some understanding of this phenomenon and the factors that contribute to it. However, there is a "gap" between knowledge about global warming and willingness to take personal action. So, although education may be effective in enhancing…

  15. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

  16. Life-cycle global warming and non-renewable energy consumption impacts of ammonia fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Are, Kristian Ray Angelo; Razon, Luis; Tan, Raymond Girard

    2015-01-01

    The use of ammonia (NH 3 ) as transportation fuel had been a recent topics of research interest. NH 3 has fuel properties that are better than those of other alternative fuels, such as it high energy density and simpler storage. However, it has a low flame speed and would require to be mixed with a secondary fuel forming a dual fuel system. Moreover, current industrial methods of NH 3 production are major global warming potential (GWP) and non-renewable energy consumption (NREC) impact contributors. This study assessed the life-cycle GWP and NREC of using different NH 3 -secondary fuel mixtures. Four fuel mixtures were considered, wherein NH 3 is mixed with gasoline, diesel, hydrogen or dimethyl ether (DME). Also, our processes of NH 3 production were considered: steam reforming (SR), partial oxidation (PO), which are industrial methods and two biomass-based (alternative) processes wherein cereal straw (Salix) and cyanobacteria (Anabaena ATCC 33047) are used feedstocks. Contribution, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses (via Monte Carlo simulation) were conducted for life-cycle interpretation. Dominance matrix tool was also employed to aid in drawing conclusions. The study concludes that the environmental impacts of NH 3 fuel are dependent on (i) NH 3 production methods and (ii) type of NH 3 fuel mixture. NH 3 -diesel fuel mixtures have lower GWP compared to pure diesel, while NH 3 -gasoline fuel mixture have higher GWP compared to pure gasoline. Because of large uncertainty of the NREC pure gasoline and pure diesel, no firm conclusion can be made about the NREC ammonia-diesel and ammonia-gasoline. If fuel mixture types are compared, NH 3 -H 2 mixtures have the lowest GWP and NREC among the four, though this would entail designing new engines. Over-all, it is shown that fuel systems involving biomass-based NH 3 have lower environmental impacts as compared to conventionally-produced NH 3 counterparts. (author)

  17. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  18. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  19. Global warming: the significance of methane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, B.; Le Treut, H.; Laponche, B.

    2008-01-01

    the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) indicates the relative contribution to global warming over a given period (for example 100 years) of a pulse emission at the start of the period of 1 kg of a specific greenhouse gas (GHG) in comparison to the contribution, over the same period, of an emission of 1 kg of CO 2 . The GWPs calculated for different time intervals take into account the differences in atmospheric lifetimes of the different GHGs. Using the '100-year GWP' to measure non CO 2 GHG emissions is not well suited to the case of permanent or long lifetime measures whose effectiveness is to be assessed at a given time horizon. In this context, it contributes to significantly playing down the importance of reducing emissions of GHGs with short atmospheric lifetimes. Thus, for example, methane which is not emitted over the period 2020- 2100 as a result of a landfill site being closed in 2020 will have an impact (as opposed to if the site remained in operation) that would be far greater towards 2100 compared to a CO 2 emission source that has also been stopped permanently and whose climate impact is measured in an equivalent manner. Using the GWP is only appropriate if applied year after year to time horizons considered to be of concern or decisive by climate studies, thus in particular 2050, 2100 and 2150. This is all the more significant as climate experts' current concerns lead them not only to advocate long-term stabilisation of GHG concentrations but also to avoid as far as possible intermediate excess of these concentrations over the coming century. Finally, it is noted that CH 4 prevention policies implemented in the short term may continue to have a long-term impact greater than merely taking into account the current GWP would imply. To more or less ignore the impact of CH 4 as it is unsuitable for accounting purposes affects the exclusive character of the link that may exist between the issue of GHGs and that of energy. Furthermore, if the

  20. Global health impacts due to infectious diseases and climate change: A narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sameera Karnik

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization (WHO, environment is explained in terms of human health, such as physical, chemical and biological factors that are external to a person and all the related behavioral changes that affect population health. Quality of life and health is generally affected by people’s interaction with the environment.The purpose of this narrative review was to address various global health impacts such as heat wave impact, impact of floods and droughts, impact of allergens and impact of air pollution. A major emphasis of this review was on climatic impact on a variety of infectious diseases, particularly the interplay between ‘global warming’ and its effects on transmission of infectious diseases across the world. An analysis of vector borne disease transmission, infectious disease transmission modeling, in the backdrop of global warming, the concept of ‘one health’ and the effects of rising sea levels, which are purported to be due to global warming, were some of the highlighted issues addressed in this review. Towards the end, attention was drawn towards the limitations of addressing vector disease transmission related insufficient studies particularly studies which conduct predictive modeling of infectious disease transmission, which were marred by lack of innovation.

  1. Global health impacts due to infectious diseases and climate change: A narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sameera Karnik

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization (WHO, environment is explained in terms of human health, such as physical, chemical and biological factors that are external to a person and all the related behavioral changes that affect population health. Quality of life and health is generally affected by people’s interaction with the environment.The purpose of this narrative review was to address various global health impacts such as heat wave impact, impact of floods and droughts, impact of allergens and impact of air pollution. A major emphasis of this review was on climatic impact on a variety of infectious diseases, particularly the interplay between ‘global warming’ and its effects on transmission of infectious diseases across the world. An analysis of vector borne disease transmission, infectious disease transmission modeling, in the backdrop of global warming, the concept of ‘one health’ and the effects of rising sea levels, which are purported to be due to global warming, were some of the highlighted issues addressed in this review. Towards the end, attention was drawn towards the limitations of addressing vector disease transmission related insufficient studies particularly studies which conduct predictive modeling of infectious disease transmission, which were marred by lack of innovation.

  2. Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  3. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-02-26

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  4. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-01-01

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  5. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, F. S.

    2010-01-01

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  6. Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

    2012-04-01

    Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1993-05-01

    This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

  8. When will we reach 1.5 of global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D.

    2017-12-01

    Recent global temperature trends indicate that we may be rapidly approaching 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, rigorous estimates of when this target will be breached are rare, and are highly sensitive to small errors in observed and model-simulated historical warming, as well as widely-varying estimates of the allowable emissions for 1.5°C. Here, I present a proposed method to estimate the time remaining to 1.5°C using a new estimate of human-attributable warming, updated CO2 emissions trends, and the latest estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget. The resulting calculation suggests that a continuation of recent CO2 emission trends would take us past 1.5°C in 2033, a little less than 16 years from now. Uncertainties in this calculation remain large, reflecting both fundamental scientific uncertainties associated with the climate response to emissions, as well as uncertainties associated with human mitigation decisions and their effect on future CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is nevertheless important to provide a robust and widely-accepted best estimate of the time remaining before we breach the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris climate agreement, so as to clearly communicate our scientific understanding to policy makers and the general public. To this end, in an effort to visualize and track our progress towards these target, we have develop an online and projectable climate clock, which shows a real-time countdown of the time remaining to 1.5 and 2°C of global warming (see www.climateclock.net). This clock will be updated annually in light of the most recent emissions and global temperature data, and accounting for improved estimates of the remaining carbon budget associated with these climate targets. As countries around the world move forward with climate mitigation efforts, this climate clock will be able to clearly mark our progress towards the objective of adding time to the countdown so as to ultimately

  9. The role of the SST-thermocline relationship in Indian Ocean Dipole skewness and its response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tends to have stronger cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the eastern Indian Ocean with greater impacts than warm SSTAs that occur during its negative phase. Two feedbacks have been suggested as the cause of positive IOD skewness, a positive Bjerknes feedback and a negative SST-cloud-radiation (SCR) feedback, but their relative importance is debated. Using inter-model statistics, we show that the most important process for IOD skewness is an asymmetry in the thermocline feedback, whereby SSTAs respond to thermocline depth anomalies more strongly during the positive phase than negative phase. This asymmetric thermocline feedback drives IOD skewness despite positive IODs receiving greater damping from the SCR feedback. In response to global warming, although the thermocline feedback strengthens, its asymmetry between positive and negative IODs weakens. This behaviour change explains the reduction in IOD skewness that many models display under global warming. PMID:25112717

  10. On the differences between 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Paris Agreement of 2015 has resulted in a drive to limit global warming to 2oC with an aim for a lower 1.5oC target. It is therefore vital that we understand some of the differences we would expect between these two levels of global warming. My research uses coupled climate model projections to investigate where and for what variables we can differentiate between worlds of 1.5oC and 2oC global warming. I place a particular focus on climate extremes and population exposure to those extremes. I have found that there are perceptible benefits in limiting global warming to 1.5oC as opposed to 2oC through reduced frequency and intensity of heat extremes, both over land and in ocean areas where thermal stress on coral has resulted in bleaching. Differences in high and low precipitation extremes between the 1.5oC and 2oC global warming levels are projected for some regions. I have also examined how "scalable" changes from the 1.5oC to 2oC level are. In areas of the world such as Eastern China I find that changes in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations will influence the level of change projected at 1.5oC and 2oC, such that past warming is likely to be a poor indicator of future changes. Overall, my research finds clear benefits to limiting global warming to 1.5oC relative to higher levels.

  11. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Various methods exist to calculate global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHG) as measures of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agroecosystems. Little is, however, known about net GWP and GHGI that account for all sources and sinks of GHG emissions. Sources of GHG include...

  12. Evaluation of nitrous oxide as a substitute for sulfur hexafluoride to reduce global warming impacts of ANSI/HPS N13.1 gaseous uniformity testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiao-Ying; Barnett, J. Matthew; Amidan, Brett G.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Flaherty, Julia E.; Antonio, Ernest J.; Glissmeyer, John A.

    2018-03-01

    The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard requires gaseous tracer uniformity testing for sampling associated with stacks used in radioactive air emissions. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a greenhouse gas with a high global warming potential, has long been the gas tracer used in such testing. To reduce the impact of gas tracer tests on the environment, nitrous oxide (N2O) was evaluated as a potential replacement to SF6. The physical evaluation included the development of a test plan to record percent coefficient of variance and the percent maximum deviation between the two gases while considering variables such as fan configuration, injection position, and flow rate. Statistical power was calculated to determine how many sample sets were needed, and computational fluid dynamic modeling was utilized to estimate overall mixing in stacks. Results show there are no significant differences between the behaviors of the two gases, and SF6 modeling corroborated N2O test results. Although, in principle, all tracer gases should behave in an identical manner for measuring mixing within a stack, the series of physical tests guided by statistics was performed to demonstrate the equivalence of N2O testing to SF6 testing in the context of stack qualification tests. The results demonstrate that N2O is a viable choice leading to a four times reduction in global warming impacts for future similar compliance driven testing.

  13. A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putti, Fernando Ferrari; Filho, Luis Roberto Almeida Gabriel; Gabriel, Camila Pires Cremasco; Neto, Alfredo Bonini; Bonini, Carolina Dos Santos Batista; Rodrigues Dos Reis, André

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Depletion of fossil fuels and the impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, M.; Kverndokk, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper combines the theory of optimal extraction of exhaustible resources with the theory of greenhouse externalities, to analyze problems of global warming when the supply side is considered. The optimal carbon tax will initially rise but eventually fall when the externality is positively related to the stock of carbon in the atmosphere. It is shown that the tax will start falling before the stock of carbon in the atmosphere reaches its maximum. If there exists a non-polluting backstop technology, it will be optimal to extract and consume fossil fuels even when the price of fossil fuels is equal to the price of the backstop. The total extraction is the same as when the externality is ignored, but in the presence of the greenhouse effect, it will be optimal to slow the extraction and spread it over a longer period. If, on the other hand, the greenhouse externality depends on the rate of change in the atmospheric stock of carbon, the evolution of the optimal carbon tax is more complex. It can even be optimal to subsidize carbon emissions to avoid future rapid changes in the stock of carbon, and therefore future damages. 22 refs., 3 figs

  15. Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Keller

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the

  16. Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehan, Casey R.

    Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses

  17. The Relational Concurrence of Global Warming and Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    global warming and economic development focusing on the danger it inheres in ... that both developing and developed countries should sink their differences, .... with time. Other fossils exist but are still under investigation. These fossil fuels contribute greatly to human existence in the areas of. Electricity generation and ...

  18. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-01-01

    Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...

  19. Identifying the Molecular Origin of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom, the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated XF bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a non-linear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.

  20. The Role of Information Professionals in Reducing the Effects of Global Warming through Knowledge Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lect. Ph. D. Priti Jain

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available As a result of global environmental change, global warming is the greatest environmental challenge in the 21st century. It could lead to the ultimate end of existence of earth and man. Potential catastrophic effects on the environment and for human life are one of the biggest concerns and most widely discussed issues in the world. This paper will explore how Information Professionals can build knowledge management related to global warming and thus make their contribution towards a sustainable environment. With a brief discussion of causes, effects, solutions and challenges related to global warming, the conclusion suggests a way forward for librarians and information professionals.

  1. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  2. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  3. Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called "Global Warming: Virtual Earth". In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw…

  4. Global warming and energy technology choices: An approach to weighing the alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGroat, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    Responses to global warming must be fashioned in the face of great uncertainty as to the actual costs and benefits of the actions. Yet the possible consequences of inaction are so great that policy makers are having to move ahead on the basis of science's incomplete knowledge of the true impacts of global warming. Energy technology is a key component of any response becauseof fossil fuels' dominant role in generating the gases that are the cause of the greenhouse effect. This paper presents an approach to analyzing CO 2 emissions from both fossil fuel and alternative energy technologies on a basis that normalizes emissions as a function of useful power output over the life of a generating technology, and over its entire fuel cycle. A scenario for analyzing wood-fired electricity generation from a short-rotation wood plantation is developed in detail to illustrate the application of the approach to assessing the CO 2 impact of biomass energy. The paper concludes that wood energy supplied by a short-rotation woody plantation not only balances the emissions during the operation of the generating plant, but also sequesters CO 2 in the 'infrastructure' of growing biomass that remains on the plantation after harvesting. The paper finishes with a caution that this analysis tends to highlight only the environmental issues involved in technology selection; economics, technical feasibility and important technical parameters are intentionally simplified in order to focus attention on emissions and power output. However, if used properly this approach does provide useful inputs for policy makers concerned with integrating environmental concerns into energy decisions

  5. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  6. Potential impact of global warming on the range of Spruce, Fir, Beech and sessile Oak in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piedallu, Christian; Perez, Vincent; Gegout, Jean-Claude; Lebourgeois, Francois; Bertrand, Romain

    2009-01-01

    There have been many studies all over the world that forecast the impact of global warming on vegetation but there is little information currently available to assess its consequences on French forests. The authors studied the range of four common species - spruce, fir, beech and sessile oak - so as to determine their ecology as accurately as possible and assess their sensitivity to global warming. Their range over the period from 1961-1990 was modelled and mapped for the whole of France using ecological variables that characterize climate, water supply, and soil nutrition. The models constructed predict effects from temperature, the water resource, water-logging and the trophic level of soils that are consistent with empirical knowledge about these species. Changes in the probabilities of presence during the 21. century investigated by simulating the A2 and B2 scenarios of the HadCM3 climate model. Changes in climate as predicted by this model would lead to a decrease of the probabilities of presence for all four species initially in the first part of the 21. century at the outer limits of their ranges and then a very significant drop in most plains and medium altitude upland areas, even according to the most optimistic forecasts under scenario B2. The reduction in the forest surface areas that are favourable to the species investigated for the period 2070-2100 is estimated, depending on the scenario, to be between 92% and 99% for spruce, 80% and 93% for beech, 63% and 83% for fir and 43% and 83% for sessile oak. These forecasted changes are very significant in comparison with the current conditions that are favourable to the presence of these species for which edaphic variables act as a local filter within the overall climate envelope. The authors conclude by underscoring the value of these tools for identifying and mapping the most vulnerable areas so as to be in a position to track the behaviour of these species in these areas and determine the appropriate

  7. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  8. IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND WOMEN IN INDIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durgadas Mukhopadhyay [Delhi University, Delhi (India)

    2008-09-30

    The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the world can expect more heat waves and droughts, heavier rains, stronger storms and rising sea levels due to global warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia- where the climate is already more extreme and arid regions are common-are likely to be most affected. Large numbers of people could be forced to find new homes as their living environments are submerged, or food and water become scarce. Up to 250 million people could be displaced by climate-related disasters by the middle of the century. Recent World Bank researcher has found that the impacts of a one-meter rise in sea level will be profound in the developing world, potentially turning 56 million people in 84 developing countries into environmental refugees. In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 per cent of the nation's population will be displaced with onemeter sea level rise, with very high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas. Egypt's Nile Delta will be similarly affected with 10.5 per cent of the population at risk and 25 percent of the delta inundated. In South Asia, Bangladesh will have the largest share of land affected. A 2007 cross-country study in Latin America has found strong evidence that agriculture in the region will be vulnerable to the effects of higher temperatures, though these effects are likely to vary from place to place. Deforestation at five percent a decade is steadily depleting a valuable resource base for millions of people who depend on forest for survival. It also contributes to about 20 per cent of annual global CO2 emissions and seriously threatens biodiversity. A world-wide average 3 centigrade increase (compared to pre-industrial temperatures) over the coming decades would results in a range of localized increases that could reach twice as high in some locations. The effect that increase droughts, extreme weather events, tropical storms and sea level rises will

  9. Perceptions of Global Warming Among the Poorest Counties in the Southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Gregory D; Bell, Ronny A

    2018-03-07

    The geographic position and high level of poverty in the southeastern United States are significant risk factors that contribute to the region's high vulnerability to climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate beliefs and perceptions of global warming among those living in poverty in the poorest counties in the southeastern United States. Results from this project may be used to support public health efforts to increase climate-related messaging to vulnerable and underserved communities. This was an ecological study that analyzed public opinion poll estimates from previously gathered national level survey data (2016). Responses to 5 questions related to beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions of global warming were evaluated. Counties below the national average poverty level (13.5%) were identified among 11 southeastern US states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia). Student t tests were used to compare public perceptions of global warming among the poorest urban and rural counties with national-level public opinion estimates. Overall, counties below the national poverty level in the southeastern US were significantly less likely to believe that global warming was happening compared with national-level estimates. The poorest rural counties were less likely to believe that global warming was happening than the poorest urban counties. Health care providers and public health leaders at regional and local levels are in ideal positions to raise awareness and advocate the health implications of climate change to decision makers for the benefit of helping underserved communities mitigate and adequately adapt to climate-related threats.

  10. [Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

    2014-12-01

    The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

  11. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  12. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

    2005-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  13. The economics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillet, G.; Hediger, W.; Kypreos, S.; Corbaz, C.

    1993-05-01

    The global warming threat is challenging the world community to both international cooperation and national policy action. This report focuses on the necessity to alternate between ''global and national climate policies''. The Swiss perspective is at issue. The economic rationales for comparing national climate policy options are analyzed. This report explicitly focusses on the fundamental role of the normative framework and the related environmental-economic requisites for establishing an efficient national climate policy and computing a ''carbon tax''. Finally, the latest results of the energy and greenhouse gas scenarios for Switzerland, elaborated on within the network of the IEA/ETSAP Project, Annex IV, ''Greenhouse Gases and National Energy Options: Technologies and Costs for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases'', illustrate Switzerland's difficulties in reducing greenhouse gas emissions at ''reasonable cost'' compared with other countries. This should make Switzerland very sensitive to the implementation of efficient environmental-policy instruments and international cooperation. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  14. Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie; Allen, Myles; Kallbekken, Steffen

    2017-02-01

    The politically contentious issue of calculating countries’ contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the ‘Brazilian Proposal’, industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries’ own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a

  15. Scientists' Views about Attribution of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

    2015-04-01

    What do scientists think? That is an important question when engaging in science communication, in which an attempt is made to communicate the scientific understanding to a lay audience. To address this question we undertook a large and detailed survey among scientists studying various aspects of climate change , dubbed "perhaps the most thorough survey of climate scientists ever" by well-known climate scientist and science communicator Gavin Schmidt. Among more than 1800 respondents we found widespread agreement that global warming is predominantly caused by human greenhouse gases. This consensus strengthens with increased expertise, as defined by the number of self-reported articles in the peer-reviewed literature. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), agreed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of recent global warming, i.e. having contributed more than half of the observed warming. With this survey we specified what the consensus position entails with much greater specificity than previous studies. The relevance of this consensus for science communication will be discussed. Another important result from our survey is that the main attribution statement in IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) may lead to an underestimate of the greenhouse gas contribution to warming, because it implicitly includes the lesser known masking effect of cooling aerosols. This shows the importance of the exact wording in high-profile reports such as those from IPCC in how the statement is perceived, even by fellow scientists. The phrasing was improved in the most recent assessment report (AR5). Respondents who characterized the human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change. This shows that contrarian opinions are amplified in the media in relation to their prevalence in the scientific community. This

  16. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  17. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1994-12-01

    The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

  18. Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-10

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  19. National US public policy on global warming derived from optimization of energy use and environmental impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will discuss possible United States policy responses to global warming. The components of a voluntary program for emissions control will be presented as well as regulatory options, including a carbon tax and tradeable permits. The advantages and disadvantages of both options will be discussed as well as the need for a consistent overall policy response to climate change

  20. National US public policy on global warming derived from optimization of energy use and environmental impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reck, R.

    1993-12-31

    This paper will discuss possible United States policy responses to global warming. The components of a voluntary program for emissions control will be presented as well as regulatory options, including a carbon tax and tradeable permits. The advantages and disadvantages of both options will be discussed as well as the need for a consistent overall policy response to climate change.

  1. Partitioning the effects of Global Warming on the Hydrological Cycle with Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S. G.; Russell, J. M.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Buenning, N. H.; Lee, J. E.; Noone, D.

    2016-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that much of the global hydrological cycle's response to anthropogenic warming will be caused by increased lower-tropospheric water vapor concentrations and associated feedbacks. However, fingerprinting changes in the global hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic warming remains challenging. Held and Soden (2006) predicted that as lower-tropospheric water vapor increases, atmospheric circulation will weaken as climate warms to maintain the surface energy budget. Unfortunately, the strength of this feedback and the fallout for other branches of the hydrological cycle is difficult to constrain in situ or with GCMs alone. We demonstrate the utility of stable hydrogen isotope ratios in atmospheric water vapor to quantitatively trace changes in atmospheric circulation and convective mass flux in a warming world. We compare water isotope-enabled GCM experiments for control (present-day) CO2 vs. high CO2(2x, 4x) atmospheres in two GCMs, IsoGSM and iCAM5. We evaluate changes in the distribution of water vapor, vertical velocity (omega), and the stream function between these experiments in order to identify spatial patterns of circulation change over the tropical Pacific (where vertical motion is strong) and map the δD of water vapor associated with atmospheric warming. We also probe the simulations to isolate isotopic signatures associated with water vapor residence time, precipitation efficiency, divergence, and cloud physics. We show that there are robust mechanisms that moisten the troposphere and weaken convective mass flux, and that these mechanisms can be tracked using the δD of water vapor. Further, we find that these responses are most pronounced in the upper troposphere. These findings provide a framework to develop new metrics for the detection of global warming impacts to the hydrological cycle. Further, currently available satellite missions measure δD in the atmospheric boundary layer, the free atmosphere, or the

  2. Nuclear power in the context of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1989-01-01

    The paper examines the extent to which nuclear power could help ameliorate the greenhouse problem. Topics discussed include: (1) How serious is the environmental threat posed by the greenhouse effect? (2) How large a part do fossil fuels play in producing greenhouse gases? (3) Is it possible to prevent or abate the anticipated global warming? (4) Can nuclear power play a significant role? (5) What overall approached might best reduce greenhouse emissions? Global cooperativeness in addressing the problem will be essential. 14 refs., 5 tabs

  3. The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Glen P. [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), Oslo (Norway); Andrew, Robbie M. [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), Oslo (Norway); Boden, Tom [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Canadell, Josep G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra (Australia); Ciais, Philippe [CAE - CNRS - UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette (France); Le Quéré, Corinne [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Marland, Gregg [Appalachian State Univ., Boone, NC (United States); Raupach, Michael R. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra (Australia); Wilson, Charlie [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-02

    Here, the latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

  4. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Canran Liu; Ronald P. Neilson; Lara Hansen; Lee. Hannah

    2006-01-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-C02 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of...

  5. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

    2018-02-01

    Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

  6. Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: A Failed Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Carla

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is a current environmental issue that has been linked to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. To raise awareness of the problem, various simple experiments have been proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon dioxide on the planet's temperature. This article describes a similar experiment, which…

  7. Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gibbs, S.J.; Bown, P.R.; Murphy, B.H.; Sluijs, A.; Edgar, K.M.; Pälike, H.; Bolton, C.T.; Zachos, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are

  8. American lay conceptions of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kempton, W.

    1990-01-01

    Ethnographic interviews were conducted with Americans from all walks of life in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they held fundamental misconceptions that were shared across individuals. Many of these misconceptions derive from the process of fitting a new concept, global warming, into four preexisting categories: stratospheric ozone depletion, plant photosynthesis, tropospheric pollution, and personally-experienced seasonal and geographic temperature variation. Informants readily accepted that human activities could change climate and weather patterns. Indeed, most reported they had already observed changes in weather patterns, some citing space shots or atomic bomb testing as causes. Few informants connected the greenhouse effect to energy or fuel consumption, although the connection was easily understood when explained by the interviewers

  9. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  10. Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian S. Acuña-Rodríguez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at

  11. Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

    2017-01-01

    The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could

  12. PENGEMBANGAN MEDIA POSTER BERBASIS PENDIDIKAN KARAKTER UNTUK MATERI GLOBAL WARMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SRI MAIYENA

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This research was done because of the students’ difficulties in understanding the concept of global warming and implementing character values so that it needed to design poster media based character education. This research was aimed to see the effectiveness of poster media based character education that was already developed in Ilmu Alamiah Dasar subject. The design of the research was a research development. The effectiveness of poster media was gotten from testing to the students who had conducted Ilmu Alamiah Dasar subject. The instrument of the research was questionnaire. The result of the rsearch showed that developing poster media based character education was very effective according to the students with percentage 81.9%. Kata kunci: media poster berbasis pendidikan karakter, praktis, global warming

  13. Global warming update: Recent scientific findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This study, from the George C. Marshall Institute, considers recent scientific findings on the extent of human-induced global warming. The earth's temperature has risen by approximately half a degree Celsius in the last 100 years, coinciding with a substantial increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, apparently the result of human activity. Several scientific groups have concluded that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases has produced much or all of the recent rise in global temperatures. They predict a doubling of carbon dioxide by the mid-21st century resulting in a global temperature rise of 5 degrees C and causing severe disruptions in the earth's ecosystem. The available data on climatic change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. Enormous economic stakes ride on government decisions about carbon taxes and other CO 2 emission restrictions. Attention must be paid to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. The discussion is divided into five parts: introduction; Are the Greenhouse Forecasts Reliable?; The Cause of Recent Climate Changes; New Results on Global Flooding; Conclusions; Policy Implications. 27 refs., 9 figs

  14. Door still open for action on issue of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crow, P.

    1992-01-01

    Global warming may or may not be a legitimate environmental threat, but Washington lobbyists consider it a legislative threat. It does not appear the current Congress will limit or tax use of U.S. fossil fuels, whose burning releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This paper reports that some scientists have claimed a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result in a significant warming of the earth by 2050, threatening agriculture, altering ecosystems, and even melting polar ice and causing rising oceans to flood coastal areas and islands. In 1990 a United Nations panel of climate scientists predicted a 2 degrees C. increase in world temperatures within 35 years and 6 degrees by the end of the next century. Some scientists say preventing further increases will require a 60% reduction in current CO 2 emissions. The oil industry already is beginning to feel heat from the global warming issue. The Environmental Protection Agency calculates energy production and use is responsible for 57% of current emissions caused by man

  15. Global Warming: Implications for Library and Information Professionals

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The major finding is that global warming is an issue that cannot be resolved overnight or with any one policy. It is an intergenerational problem which needs to be addressed by ensuring that how people live on this planet takes climate change seriously into account. The major recommendation is that library buildings should ...

  16. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebők, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M.; Goerlitz, Holger R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey. PMID:24335559

  17. Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebok, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M; Goerlitz, Holger R

    2014-02-06

    Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey.

  18. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  19. Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (Second Edition)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Dennis L.

    Enough coal exists to sustain world energy consumption growth through at least the end of the next century. If fossil carbon fuel consumption continues to increase at current rates, however, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will likely more than double, probably leading to significant warming of global climate, shifts in regional climates, and sea-level rise. Scientists and citizens throughout the world are discussing what should be done about the effects of our energy economy on the global environment.The issue is very broad and engaging, ranging from basic issues of geoscience to economics to fundamental value systems, and it has mobilized great economic interests and concern for our global environment. We live in an interesting time when human activities have begun to compete with the global capacities of Earth to recycle the elements of life. In the coming years, we will see how the world community reacts to this challenge, and what combination of conservation, technological development, and adaptation is ultimately adopted.

  20. An evaluation of applying the 'Critical thinking model' to teaching global warming to junior high school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Hong, C.; Hsu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is a consequence of interaction among the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere. The causes of climate change are extremely complicated for scientists to explain. The fact that the global climate has kept warming in the past few decades is one example. It remains controversial for scientists whether this warming is the result of human activity or natural causes. This research aims to lead students to discuss the causes of global warming from distinct and controversial viewpoints to help the students realize the uncertainty and complicated characteristics of the global warming issue. The context of applying the critical thinking model to teaching the scientific concepts of climate change and global warming is designed for use in junior high schools. The videos of the upside concept 'An Inconvenient Truth' (a 2006 documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim) and the reverse-side concept 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' (a 2007 documentary film made by British television producer/director Martin Durkin) about the global warming crisis are incorporated into lessons in order to guide students to make their own decisions appropriately when discussing the earth climate change crisis. A questionnaire, individual teacher interviews and observations in class were conducted to evaluate the curriculum. The pre-test and post-test questionnaires showed differences in the students' knowledge, attitudes and behavior towards the global warming phenomenon before and after attending the lessons. The results show that those students who attended the whole curriculum had a significant increase in their knowledge and behavior factors of global climate (P value <0.001*). However, there was no significant improvement in their attitudes between the pre-test and post-test questionnaires (P value=0.329). From the individual interviews, the teachers who gave the lessons indicated that this project could increase the interaction with their students during class