WorldWideScience

Sample records for global urban growth

  1. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  2. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxing Chen

    Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  3. Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

    2015-03-01

    The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

  4. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

  5. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  6. Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

  7. Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

  8. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  9. Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

  10. Globalization, Growth and Poverty

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One-pagers are a publication of IDRC's “Globalization, Growth and Poverty” Program Initiative, and are ... great disparities, with earnings among urban workers with higher education being four or five times larger than those of illiterate rural.

  11. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  12. Urban growth management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Alexander Sick Nielsen, Thomas; Grünfelder, Julien

    2011-01-01

    , and finally urban attractivity policies. Effective regional bodies are needed to deal with urban expansion and peri-urbanisation at a relevant scale; European rural and agricultural policies makes up the main ‘policy complex’ targeting the non-urban area including its land uses; while lastly leverage of urban...... urban growth and curb urban sprawl in a wider sense. Methodology The main methodology of the paper is a desk-research based review of policy options supplemented with field study and interviews in selected cased study regions. This paper consists of two parts. The first part is based on literature...... there are contradictions in the evidence presented in the literature, we believe that it may be safely said that urban growth management policies have an influence on urban growth under certain preconditions including: sufficient time for implementation and continuity of efforts; choice of appropriate policy measures...

  13. Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as

  14. Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

    2011-05-01

    Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

  15. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  16. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

    2012-10-02

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

  17. Urban Environmental Education for Global Transformation Initiatives - Integrating Information and Communication Systems for Urban Sustainability in 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Urban population of developing countries is predicted to rise from one third in 1990 to over 50% by 2025. In 1950 the world's total urban population was 734 million, of whom 448 million were living in developed countries and remaining 286 were in developing region. The total population on earth is predicted to increase by more than one billion people within the next 15 years, reaching 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. Looking at the ever increasing urbanization.In 2016, an estimated 54.5 per cent of the world's populations inhabited in urban region. By 2030, urban areas are projected to shelter 60 per cent of people worldwide and one in every three people will live in cities with at least half a million inhabitants.On the basis of these figures and other global trends, it would appear that Africa and Asia will have the highest share of world's urban growth in next 25 years, resulting consideration rise of large number of metropolitan cities and towns. Therefore issues related to urban climate change will be important for socio economic development for urban transformation through environmental sustainability.The information and communication systems plays an important role in achieving the social sustainability through environmental sustainability for urban transformation. This presentation aims to start the Global initiatives on the problem identifications in environment education for global transformation, education for socio-economic and environmental sustainability due to urbanization in 2050 to investigate problems related to social-economic risks and management issues resulting from urbanization to aid mitigation planning in globalized world and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable solutions in environment learning.The presentation aims to assess the potential of information and communication technology for environment education,both within different

  18. Global distribution and evolvement of urbanization and PM2.5 (1998-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dongyang; Ye, Chao; Wang, Xiaomin; Lu, Debin; Xu, Jianhua; Yang, Haiqing

    2018-06-01

    PM2.5 concentrations increased and have been one of the major social issues along with rapid urbanization in many regions of the world in recent decades. The development of urbanization differed among regions, PM2.5 pollution also presented discrepant distribution across the world. Thus, this paper aimed to grasp the profile of global distribution of urbanization and PM2.5 and their evolutionary relationships. Based on global data for the proportion of the urban population and PM2.5 concentrations in 1998-2015, this paper investigated the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and evolutionary relationships of global urbanization and PM2.5. The results showed PM2.5 presented an increasing trend along with urbanization during the study period, but there was a variety of evolutionary relationships in different countries and regions. Most countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and some African countries developed with the rapid increase in both urbanization and PM2.5. Under the impact of other socioeconomic factors, such as industry and economic growth, the development of urbanization increased PM2.5 concentrations in most Asian countries and some African countries, but decreased PM2.5 concentrations in most European and American countries. The findings of this study revealed the spatial distributions of global urbanization and PM2.5 pollution and provided an interpretation on the evolution of urbanization-PM2.5 relationships, which can contribute to urbanization policies making aimed at successful PM2.5 pollution control and abatement.

  19. Global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture: irrigated and rainfed croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thebo, A. L.; Drechsel, P.; Lambin, E. F.

    2014-11-01

    The role of urban agriculture in global food security is a topic of increasing discussion. Existing research on urban and peri-urban agriculture consists largely of case studies that frequently use disparate definitions of urban and peri-urban agriculture depending on the local context and study objectives. This lack of consistency makes quantification of the extent of this practice at the global scale difficult. This study instead integrates global data on croplands and urban extents using spatial overlay analysis to estimate the global area of urban and peri-urban irrigated and rainfed croplands. The global area of urban irrigated croplands was estimated at about 24 Mha (11.0 percent of all irrigated croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.48. The global area of urban rainfed croplands found was approximately 44 Mha (4.7 percent of all rainfed croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.03. These values were derived from the MIRCA2000 Maximum Monthly Cropped Area Grids for irrigated and rainfed crops and therefore their sum does not necessarily represent the total urban cropland area when the maximum extent of irrigated and rainfed croplands occurs in different months. Further analysis of croplands within 20 km of urban extents show that 60 and 35 percent of, respectively, all irrigated and rainfed croplands fall within this distance range.

  20. Global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture: irrigated and rainfed croplands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thebo, A L; Drechsel, P; Lambin, E F

    2014-01-01

    The role of urban agriculture in global food security is a topic of increasing discussion. Existing research on urban and peri-urban agriculture consists largely of case studies that frequently use disparate definitions of urban and peri-urban agriculture depending on the local context and study objectives. This lack of consistency makes quantification of the extent of this practice at the global scale difficult. This study instead integrates global data on croplands and urban extents using spatial overlay analysis to estimate the global area of urban and peri-urban irrigated and rainfed croplands. The global area of urban irrigated croplands was estimated at about 24 Mha (11.0 percent of all irrigated croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.48. The global area of urban rainfed croplands found was approximately 44 Mha (4.7 percent of all rainfed croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.03. These values were derived from the MIRCA2000 Maximum Monthly Cropped Area Grids for irrigated and rainfed crops and therefore their sum does not necessarily represent the total urban cropland area when the maximum extent of irrigated and rainfed croplands occurs in different months. Further analysis of croplands within 20 km of urban extents show that 60 and 35 percent of, respectively, all irrigated and rainfed croplands fall within this distance range. (letter)

  1. An obsolete dichotomy? Rethinking the rural–urban interface in terms of food security and production in the global south.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Amy M; Eakin, Hallie

    2011-01-01

    The global food system is coming under increasing strain in the face of urban population growth. The recent spike in global food prices (2007–08) provoked consumer protests, and raised questions about food sovereignty and how and where food will be produced. Concurrently, for the first time in history the majority of the global population is urban, with the bulk of urban growth occurring in smaller-tiered cities and urban peripheries, or ‘peri-urban’ areas of the developing world. This paper discusses the new emerging spaces that incorporate a mosaic of urban and rural worlds, and reviews the implications of these spaces for livelihoods and food security. We propose a modified livelihoods framework to evaluate the contexts in which food production persists within broader processes of landscape and livelihood transformation in peri-urban locations. Where and how food production persists are central questions for the future of food security in an urbanising world. Our proposed framework provides directions for future research and highlights the role of policy and planning in reconciling food production with urban growth.

  2. Nature of urban interventions in changing the old center of a globalizing Doha

    OpenAIRE

    Gharib, Remah; Salama, Ashraf

    2017-01-01

    Doha, Qatar is continuously positioning itself at the forefront of international urbanism with different qualities of expression in terms of economy, culture, and global outlook, and is characterized by fast-tracked urban development process with large-scale urban interventions in the old center. Although the unprecedented urban growth of this city continues to be a subject of discussion, little attention has been given to investigate the new interventions and the resulting effects they have ...

  3. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  4. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

    2012-12-01

    Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

  5. Planning instruments to control urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2010-01-01

    It is challenging to plan and control urban development in peri-urban areas. But if no planning is done, the result will often be unsustainable, including widespread, dispersed and uncoordinated urban growth. Spatial planning based on zoning remains the most important planning instrument and its...... success depend on regional coordination. Incentive based instruments may contrbute to growth management, but only few examples are available and their effects on urban growth patterns yet to be seen....

  6. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  7. Policy Tools for Addressing Urban Sprawl: Urban Growth Boundaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. STRAUSS

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The analysis herein explores the topic of urban growth boundaries and how local governments in Romania could use this growth management tool in order to address unplanned, haphazard growth that is taking place at the fringe of cities and in the villages/ farming communities that surround them. The structure of the paper is threefold. The first section focuses on a brief socio-economic profile of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The aim is to provide a better context and facilitate the reader’s understanding of the nature of urban growth and suburbanization in Romania. Cluj-Napoca is currently in the process of adopting a master plan for the city and specific policy recommendations on how to address urban sprawl may prove useful. The authors hope to stir a debate among scholars, practitioners, and residents with regard to how the city of Cluj will further develop and whether future development should occur in the same manner it occurred during the last 10 years. The second section of the paper is meant to introduce the concepts of growth management and urban growth boundaries. The former is described in terms of a planning philosophy while the latter is portrayed as a specific policy tool that growth management advocates suggest it could be used in order to fight sprawl. A case study on urban growth boundaries is presented in order to underscore specific advantages and disadvantages associated with establishing a growth boundary. The last section comprises several preliminary policy recommendations for the city of Cluj-Napoca. Because of the incomplete data the authors currently have on critical issues some of the recommendations are general in scope and need to be further detailed.

  8. Urban Growth and Land-Use Structure in Two Mediterranean Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study develops an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA with the aim to assess changes over time in the distribution of selected uses of land in two Mediterranean urban regions (Rome and Athens with different morphology and economic functions. The study uses global and local Moran’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation to describe the land-use structure observed in the two cities in mid-1970s and late-2000s, and debates on the divergent contribution of compact growth and scattered urban expansion to changes in land use. The analysis identifies fringe landscapes as a key target for urban containment policies in sprawling cities.

  9. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  10. Global nitrogen and phosphate in urban wastewater for the period 1970 to 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drecht, van G.; Bouwman, A.F.; Harrison, J.; Knoop, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents estimates for global N and P emissions from sewage for the period 1970-2050 for the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios. Using country-specific projections for population and economic growth, urbanization, development of sewage systems, and wastewater treatment

  11. Is Urban Economic Growth Inclusive in India?

    OpenAIRE

    Tripathi, Sabyasachi

    2013-01-01

    This paper measures the overall inclusive growth of a city by considering changing trends in the key economic variables based on ‘Borda ranking’ and establishes a relationship between city economic growth and overall city inclusive growth. By using data of 52 large cities in India, this paper finds that higher urban economic growth is associated with an increase in urban inequality, a reduction in urban poverty, and a lower level of overall inclusive growth of a city.

  12. Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

  13. Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Creutzig, Felix; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

  14. Dubai: An Urbanism Shaped for Global Tourism

    OpenAIRE

    Salama, Hussam Hussein

    2015-01-01

    The urban transformation experience of Dubai presents an interesting model of dealing with globalization and benefiting from its flows of people, capital, and transformation. Although that city does not have rich urban heritage or natural attractions compared to other cities in the region, it managed to construct an urban structure that captured a relatively significant portion of global tourism to its local context. In this research paper the author argue that Dubai has achieved this quest b...

  15. Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padowski, Julie C; Gorelick, Steven M

    2014-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

  16. Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

    2017-12-01

    Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re

  17. Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martellozzo, F; Landry, J-S; Plouffe, D; Seufert, V; Ramankutty, N; Rowhani, P

    2014-01-01

    Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km 2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space. (letters)

  18. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

    2018-03-20

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  19. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  20. Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auch, Roger; Taylor, Janis; Acevedo, William

    2004-01-01

    The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002)It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape.The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future.Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs

  1. Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

    2013-03-01

    Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

  2. Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Güneralp, B; Seto, K C

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km 2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km 2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km 2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km 2 , is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies. (letter)

  3. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nduwayezu, G.; Sliuzas, R.V.; Kuffer, M.

    2017-01-01

    The uncontrolled urban growth is the key characteristics in most cities in less developed countries. However, having a good understanding of the key drivers of the city's growth dynamism has proven to be a key instrument to manage urban growth. This paper investigates the main determinants of Kigali

  4. Regional growth management policies: Toward reducing global warming at state and local levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purdie, J.

    1995-01-01

    State and local governments in the United States are accepting mandates to coordinate legislated land use and growth management planning with vigorous environmental protection and resource conservation. These mandates, implemented or planned in states with populations totaling over 100 million, will directly impact growth patterns and ultimately affect the level of atmospheric gases and particulates generated within their borders. This paper addresses the issues of growth management and land use planning at the local, state and regional levels and identifies areas impacting global warming. A review of existing systems will be presented, and recommendations will be made to improve monitoring of growth management mechanisms and organizational structures with the goal of global atmospheric improvement. The issues discussed include urban sprawl, transportation, and growth patterns as managed by policies also designed to protect environments and provide for sustainable growth. Areas for improved coordination between jurisdictions to ease global warming will also be examined

  5. Nature of urban interventions in changing the old center of a globalizing Doha

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Remah Y. Gharib

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Doha, Qatar is continuously positioning itself at the forefront of international urbanism with different qualities of expression in terms of economy, culture, and global outlook, and is characterized by fast-tracked urban development process with large-scale urban interventions in the old center. Although the unprecedented urban growth of this city continues to be a subject of discussion, little attention has been given to investigate the new interventions and the resulting effects they have on the old center. This study aims to examine three important urban interventions, namely, the Museum of Islamic Art, the reconstruction of the traditional market called Souq Waqif, and the Msheireb urban regeneration project. It examines local and global issues, universal standard practices, and traditional knowledge. This study employs a descriptive analysis of these interventions to explore the impact of change in the old center, exemplified by socio-spatial and typo-morphological aspects. Reference is made to a number of empirical studies, including behavioral mapping, GIS population statistics, and analysis of historical maps. Results analytically narrate the reactions of these interventions to the possibility of simultaneously adopting universal practices with local knowledge, and whether prioritizing local influences would represent narrow-mindedness in shaping the city.

  6. Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030...

  7. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  8. The role of urbanization in the global carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina eChurkina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas account for more than 70% of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. Urban expansion in tropics is responsible for 5% of the annual emissions from land use change. Here I show that the effect of urbanization on the global carbon cycle extends beyond these emissions. I quantify the contribution of urbanization to the major carbon fluxes and pools globally and identify gaps crucial for predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the future. Urban residents currently control ~22 (12-40 % of the land carbon uptake (112 PgC/yr and ~24 (15-39 % of the carbon emissions (117 PgC/yr from land globally. Urbanization resulted in the creation of new carbon pools on land such as buildings (~6.7 PgC and landfills (~30 PgC. Together these pools store 1.6 (±0.3 % of the total vegetation and soil carbon pools globally. The creation and maintenance of these new pools has been associated with high emissions of CO2, which are currently better understood than the processes associated with the dynamics of these pools and accompanying uptake of carbon. Predictions of the future trajectories of the global carbon cycle will require a much better understanding of how urban development affects the carbon cycle over the long term.

  9. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  10. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  11. Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

    2018-01-01

    Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

  12. Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

    2016-01-01

    Cities experiencing elevated temperature (i.e., urban “heat island” warming), CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the projected average global change are regarded as the “harbingers” of the future global change. It is for this reason that cities have been regarded as ideal natural laboratories for global change studies and particularly valuable to elucidate the potential responses of other nonurban ecosystems to future climate and environmental changes. However, the impacts of urban...

  13. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  14. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  15. UrbanTransformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lea Louise Holst

    Due to the economical and political changes marked by globalization, neo-liberalism and, post-industrialism a changed spatial configuration is emerging in which an increased division is taking place, into on the one hand, economical and demographical growing urban areas, where the urban fabric...... is being concentrated, and on the other, into declining urban areas that experience a dilution of the urban fabric and a de-concentration of people and capital. This gives an uneven spatial geography where some places are becoming nodal points in the global society and others are left behind. But the urban...... situation of concentration and de-concentration is also closely connected where there is a dynamic relation between the two. Decline might in some cases even be seen as an aspect of growth, where the growth of some places influence the decline in others. With this approach the urban fabric can, therefore...

  16. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  17. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  18. The effects of urban growth on dengue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio Pereira Horta

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue in Coronel Fabriciano, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and to associate cases to the growth of urban areas and loss of natural areas in recent years. Methods: This is a descriptive, exploratory study, with a quantitative approach. Dengue cases of 2009 were obtained from the Health Municipal Secretariat, including the suspected and confirmed cases. Shape files were obtained, containing information about the municipal boundary, boundary of the urban area, census tracts, areas with buildings and natural areas. Based on the distribution of dengue cases, the Kernel estimator was used to measure data dispersion. Results: Dengue cases reported were georeferenced in GIS (Geographic Information System environment. The landscape showed changes in the units of urban area and pasture, as an urban growth over the pasture matrix. No changes were observed in the areas of remaining forest and eucalyptus. There are cases spatially spread with a tendency to form clusters. Conclusion: Cases of dengue were observed spatially clustered in the northern region of the city, where new neighborhoods have emerged in recent years, following the population growth without proper structure of urbanization and urban planning. In addition, urban growth have reduced the margin of watercourses providing a bare soil, suitable for accumulation of trash and formation of breeding sites for mosquitoes. Efficient public policies and appropriate urban planning might reduce the impact of dengue in endemic regions. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5020/18061230.2013.p539

  19. Breaking new ground in mapping human settlements from space - The Global Urban Footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esch, Thomas; Heldens, Wieke; Hirner, Andreas; Keil, Manfred; Marconcini, Mattia; Roth, Achim; Zeidler, Julian; Dech, Stefan; Strano, Emanuele

    2017-12-01

    Today, approximately 7.2 billion people inhabit the Earth and by 2050 this number will have risen to around nine billion, of which about 70% will be living in cities. The population growth and the related global urbanization pose one of the major challenges to a sustainable future. Hence, it is essential to understand drivers, dynamics, and impacts of the human settlements development. A key component in this context is the availability of an up-to-date and spatially consistent map of the location and distribution of human settlements. It is here that the Global Urban Footprint (GUF) raster map can make a valuable contribution. The new global GUF binary settlement mask shows a so far unprecedented spatial resolution of 0.4″ (∼ 12m) that provides - for the first time - a complete picture of the entirety of urban and rural settlements. The GUF has been derived by means of a fully automated processing framework - the Urban Footprint Processor (UFP) - that was used to analyze a global coverage of more than 180,000 TanDEM-X and TerraSAR-X radar images with 3 m ground resolution collected in 2011-2012. The UFP consists of five main technical modules for data management, feature extraction, unsupervised classification, mosaicking and post-editing. Various quality assessment studies to determine the absolute GUF accuracy based on ground truth data on the one hand and the relative accuracies compared to established settlements maps on the other hand, clearly indicate the added value of the new global GUF layer, in particular with respect to the representation of rural settlement patterns. The Kappa coefficient of agreement compared to absolute ground truth data, for instance, shows GUF accuracies which are frequently twice as high as those of established low resolution maps. Generally, the GUF layer achieves an overall absolute accuracy of about 85%, with observed minima around 65% and maxima around 98%. The GUF will be provided open and free for any scientific use in

  20. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  1. The global potential of local peri-urban food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriewald, Steffen; Garcia Cantu Ros, Anselmo; Sterzel, Till; Kropp, Jürgen P.

    2013-04-01

    One big challenge for the rest of the 21st century will be the massive urbanisation. It is expected that more than 7 out of 10 persons will live in a city by the year 2050. Crucial developments towards a sustainable future will therefore take place in cities. One important approach for a sustainable city development is to re-localize food production and to close urban nutrient cycles through better waste management. The re-location of food production avoids CO2 emissions from transportation of food to cities and can also generate income for inhabitants. Cities are by definition locations where fertility accumulates. As cities are often built along rivers, their soils are often fertile. Furthermore, labour force and the possibility of producing fertilizer from human fecal matter within the city promises sustainable nutrients cycles. Although urban and peri-urban agriculture can be found in many cities worldwide and already have a substantial contribution to food supply, it has not jet been comprehensibly structured by research. We combine several worldwide data sets to determine the supply of cities with regional food production, where regional is defined as a production that occurs very close to the consumption within the peri-urban area. Therefore, urban areas are not defined by administrative boundaries but by connected built-up urban areas, and peri-urban area by the surrounding area with the same size multiplied with a scaling parameter. Both together accumulate to an urban-bio-region (UBR). With regard to national food consumption, a linear program achieves the best possible yield on agricultural areas and allows the computation of the fraction of population, which can be nourished. Additionally, several climate scenarios and different dietary patterns were considered. To close the gap between single case studies and to provide a quantitative overview of the global potential of peri-urban food production we used high resolution land-use data Global Land Cover

  2. Spatio-temporal landscape modeling of urban growth patterns in Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration, India using geoinformatics techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanhaiya Lal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the quantification of urban sprawl and land transformation of Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration (DUA using geoinformatics and gradient modeling during last four decades (1972–2011. Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., MSS (1972, ETM+ (1999, 2011 and digital elevation model (CARTOSAT I, 2006 were used to analyse the urban expansion, land transformation, growth directions, and spatial segregations within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the nature of built-up growth in DUA. The urban area increased from 10.33 km2 to 46.70 km2 (352.08% along with high rate of population growth (160.07% during 1972–2011 exhibiting population densification in DUA. The study reveals that coal mining based city faced significant land use transformation converting vegetation (−41.33% into built-up land (352.08% exhibiting loss of productive lands for the expansion of impervious surface. The per year urban growth exhibited increasing urban growth from 0.4 km2/year to 1.51 km2/year during 1972–1999 and 1999–2011 periods with overall growth of 332.73%. The built-up growth on varied elevation zones exhibits that the elevation zones 150–200 m is the most preferred (79.01% for urban development with high growth (541.74%. The gradient modeling represents that the percentage of land (built-up gradually increased from 3.48% to 15.74% during 1972–2011. The result exhibited that the major growth took place in south-west direction followed by south direction in haphazard manner during 1971–99 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in north, south and south-west direction during 1999–2011 period, majorly within the municipal limits. The study provides an analytical method to evaluate the built-up growth patterns of an urban milieu combining geoinformatics and landscape matrix. The built-up growth in DUA indicates urgent imposition of building bylaws along with zoning (land use, height and density

  3. Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2010-10-01

    Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

  4. Transnational Urban Spaces and Urban Environmental Reforms : Analyzing Beijing's Environmental Restructuring in the Light of Globalization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melchert Saguas Presas, L.

    2004-01-01

    In this era of globalization, `transnational spaces¿ are being created within urban settings, providing a direct connection between the `local¿ and the `global¿. Corporate headquarters, hotels, shopping malls, and airports are typical examples of such spaces, which while located within an urban

  5. A Global Perspective on the Sustainable Performance of Urbanization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyin Shen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, particularly in developing countries, is a major strategy for development. However, major concerns accompany it, such as air pollution, habitat destruction, and loss of arable land. In responding to these challenges, governments throughout the world have been implementing various policy mechanisms to guide the practice of urbanization towards sustainable development. It appears that there is little research investigating the outcomes of those efforts in implementing sustainable urbanization strategies. This paper provides a profile of sustainable urbanization from a global perspective. Data used for this research cover 111 countries and are collected from the World Bank database and the United Nation database. A ranking list of sustainable performance of urbanization between these countries is produced and discussed. The study suggests that countries at different stages of urbanization have achieved different levels of sustainable performance. The research results provide significant references for future study in the field of urbanization from a global perspective.

  6. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kagoyire

    industrialization, land consumption and infrastructural development, have impacted ..... urban growth (reference image) and urban development predicted to the ..... neighboring characteristics (regular water and electricity provision) were not ...

  7. The Philippines: integrated planning for balanced urban growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    During the past 80 years, the proportion of the Philippine population living in urban areas has nearly tripled, from 13% at the beginning of the 20th century to 36% in 1980. The number of people living in urban areas multipled 17-fold over this period. Currently, an estimated 17 million people live in urban areas, and this number is expected to reach 30 million by the year 2000. Migration from rural areas has been an important component of urban growth, but it has not been the principal one. Natural increase accounted for 54% of total urban growth in the 1960s and 1970s. A combination of reclassification and migration accounted for the rest. Big cities did not grow as rapidly as small cities, since their growth was generated largely by urban inmigration. Small cities tended to grow faster due to more natural increase than to inmigration. Philippine urbanization has been marked by increasing primacy. Metropolitan Manila, the largest city, has more than quadrupled in size since 1950. The phenomenon of primacy has been the cumulative consequence of historical, demographic, political, and socioeconomic factors. It may also have resulted from growth policies which unintentionally and indirectly favored the premier city. For national planners, the issue of urbanization in the Philippines is closely intertwined with the country's development objectives, particularly those of reducing poverty and attaining a more equitable distribution of income and wealth. The integration of population growth and distribution trends into the planning process is very important. Efforts to actively advocate this approach at various planning levels have been initiated. More must be learned about population and development dynamics, and planning capabilities at all levels must be improved.

  8. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  9. Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2015-01-01

    Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

  10. Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

    2015-12-01

    Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities

  11. The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Farrell

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

  12. Learning from urban growth management in the Pacific Northwest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The development of contemporary urban growth management in the Northwest United States began in the 1970s. The major tool is the implementation of urban containment boundaries, fostering growth within and limiting it outside the boundary. Additionally a set of policies reaching from densification...... Washington and Oregon as e.g. the municipalities in Denmark have strong control options in planning. However, especially the metropolitan co-operation and co-ordination instruments can certainly contribute to the discussion on urban growth management in Denmark and elsewhere....

  13. Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

    2018-06-01

    The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all

  14. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  15. Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Feller, M.; Phillip, Guertin D.

    2009-01-01

    The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

  16. Responding to Globalization and Urban Conflict: Human Rights City Initiatives

    OpenAIRE

    Jackie Smith

    2018-01-01

    Expanding globalization and urbanization have intensified the threats to human rights for many vulnerable groups and have restricted resources available to the primary guarantors of these rights—local authorities. Human rights cities initiatives are bottom-up efforts to advance human rights implementation in local contexts. They are emerging around the world in response to the global pressures on cities that intensify urban inequality and conflict. In this article I discuss how global changes...

  17. [Changes in urban development: is the globalization era one of urban deconcentration?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, S

    1997-01-01

    Urbanization patterns in Mexico during the past five decades clearly reflect trends in the country's capitalist development. Accelerated industrialization with protectionism; redistributive policies with unlimited expansion of public expenditures; industrial conversion attended by economic crisis and structural adjustment during the "lost decade" of the 1980s; and indiscriminate opening, currency instability, and anti-inflation measures in the stage of globalization represent four successive phases. This work argues that the commercial opening and application of a neoliberal model are likely to renew tendencies toward concentration of population and economic activity in a few metropolitan areas. There are indications that manufacturing is again tending to concentrate in the older industrial cities, especially Mexico City. The 1995 census suggests that, beginning in 1988, the metropolitan areas again began to attract population growth, after a cycle of outflow from the center city to the metropolitan periphery in the 1970s and 1980s. The trend toward deconcentration, thus, may not represent a linear and long-term tendency. Instead, fluctuations over time are intimately related to macroeconomic forces and regulatory mechanisms that influence the urban system. No consensus has been reached concerning the theoretical explanations of effects on regional or urban systems when international restrictions on commerce are eliminated. The neoclassical perspective predicts a homogenizing effect, assuming that key conditions are met, while a competing theory predicts that increasing competition will inevitably be met by increases in the scale of production. Incentives to focus production in a small number of places would lead to economic and demographic concentration in the urban centers or regions enjoying better infrastructure, more qualified labor forces, and more extensive markets for labor and consumption. A renewed cycle of locus in Mexico's largest metropolitan zones may

  18. Mapping Global Urban Dynamics from Nighttime Lights - 1992 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yanhua

    Accurate, up-to-date, and consistent information of urban extent is indispensable for numerous applications central to urban planning, ecosystem management, and environmental assessment and monitoring. However, current large-scale urban extent products are not uniform with respect to urban definition, spatial resolution, thematic representation, and temporal frequency. To fill this gap, this study proposed a method to update and backdate global urban extent from currently available urban maps by using nighttime light (NTL) as the main indicator. The method followed three steps: (1) exploring the spatiotemporal variation of NTL thresholds for mapping urban dynamics from NTL time series and developing an object-based thresholding method (i.e., NTL-OUT method, Xie & Weng, 2016b); (2) spatiotemporally enhancing time-series Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) NTL data for detecting broad-scale urban changes (Xie & Weng, 2017); and (3) detecting global urban dynamics during the period between 1992 and 2012 (i.e., 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012) from enhanced OLS NTL time series by using the NTL-OUT method. The results show that global urban extent almost doubled during the period from 1992 to 2012, increasing from 0.52 million to 0.98 million km 2, which accounts for 0.39% and 0.72% of the total global land area, respectively. Regionally, the urbanization level varies by continent, with Europe being the most urbanized, followed by North America, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia-Oceania. In 1992, the urban extent varied from only 0.1% of total continental land area in Australia-Oceania and Africa to 1.18% in Europe. While the proportion of urban extent in North America increased slightly from 1992 to 2002 (i.e., 0.07%), urban extent increased 0.1% for both Asia and South America. In 2012, over 0.7% of the total land was covered by the human built environment, with 0.2% in Africa and Australia-Oceania and around 0

  19. A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

  20. Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

    2018-03-01

    It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

  1. Effects of income and urban form on urban NO2: global evidence from satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechle, Matthew J; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

    2011-06-01

    Urban air pollution is among the top 15 causes of death and disease worldwide, and a problem of growing importance with a majority of the global population living in cities. A important question for sustainable development is to what extent urban design can improve or degrade the environment and public health. We investigate relationships between satellite-derived estimates of nitrogen dioxide concentration (NO(2), a key component of urban air pollution) and urban form for 83 cities globally. We find a parsimonious yet powerful relationship (model R(2) = 0.63), using as predictors population, income, urban contiguity, and meteorology. Cities with highly contiguous built-up areas have, on average, lower urban NO(2) concentrations (a one standard deviation increase in contiguity is associated with a 24% decrease in average NO(2) concentration). More-populous cities tend to have worse air quality, but the increase in NO(2) associated with a population increase of 10% may be offset by a moderate increase (4%) in urban contiguity. Urban circularity ("compactness") is not a statistically significant predictor of NO(2) concentration. Although many factors contribute to urban air pollution, our findings suggest that antileapfrogging policies may improve air quality. We find that urban NO(2) levels vary nonlinearly with income (Gross Domestic Product), following an "environmental Kuznets curve"; we estimate that if high-income countries followed urban pollution-per-income trends observed for low-income countries, NO(2) concentrations in high-income cities would be ∼10× larger than observed levels.

  2. Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

    2012-01-03

    Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

  3. Toward a 30m resolution time series of historical global urban expansion: exploring variation in North American cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuhlmacher, M.; Wang, C.; Georgescu, M.; Tellman, B.; Balling, R.; Clinton, N. E.; Collins, L.; Goldblatt, R.; Hanson, G.

    2016-12-01

    Global representations of modern day urban land use and land cover (LULC) extent are becoming increasingly prevalent. Yet considerable uncertainties in the representation of built environment extent (i.e. global classifications generated from 250m resolution MODIS imagery or the United States' National Land Cover Database) remain because of the lack of a systematic, globally consistent methodological approach. We aim to increase resolution, accuracy, and improve upon past efforts by establishing a data-driven definition of the urban landscape, based on Landsat 5, 7 & 8 imagery and ancillary data sets. Continuous and discrete machine learning classification algorithms have been developed in Google Earth Engine (GEE), a powerful online cloud-based geospatial storage and parallel-computing platform. Additionally, thousands of ground truth points have been selected from high resolution imagery to fill in the previous lack of accurate data to be used for training and validation. We will present preliminary classification and accuracy assessments for select cities in the United States and Mexico. Our approach has direct implications for development of projected urban growth that is grounded on realistic identification of urbanizing hot-spots, with consequences for local to regional scale climate change, energy demand, water stress, human health, urban-ecological interactions, and efforts used to prioritize adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset large-scale climate change. Future work to apply the built-up detection algorithm globally and yearly is underway in a partnership between GEE, University of California in San Diego, and Arizona State University.

  4. Simulating urban growth in the George town conurbation | Samat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Therefore, this paper aims to develop an urban growth simulation model using GIS-based CA-Markov approach, incorporated with driving forces of urban growth in the Malaysian context. ... Keywords: CA-Markov; Geograpghic Information Sciences (GIS); Land use changes;

  5. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  6. A global analysis of the urban heat island effect based on multisensor satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, J.; Frolking, S. E.; Milliman, T. E.; Schneider, A.; Friedl, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Human population is rapidly urbanizing. In much of the world, cities are prone to hotter weather than surrounding rural areas - so-called `urban heat islands' - and this effect can have mortal consequences during heat waves. During the daytime, when the surface energy balance is driven by incoming solar radiation, the magnitude of urban warming is strongly influenced by surface albedo and the capacity to evaporate water (i.e., there is a strong relationship between vegetated land fraction and the ratio of sensible to latent heat loss or Bowen ratio). At nighttime, urban cooling is often inhibited by the thermal inertia of the built environment and anthropogenic heat exhaust from building and transportation energy use. We evaluated a suite of global remote sensing data sets representing a range of urban characteristics against MODIS-derived land-surface temperature differences between urban and surrounding rural areas. We included two new urban datasets in this analysis - MODIS-derived change in global urban extent and global urban microwave backscatter - along with several MODIS standard products and DMSP/OLS nighttime lights time series data. The global analysis spanned a range of urban characteristics that likely influence the magnitude of daytime and/or nighttime urban heat islands - urban size, population density, building density, state of development, impervious fraction, eco-climatic setting. Specifically, we developed new satellite datasets and synthesizing these with existing satellite data into a global database of urban land surface parameters, used two MODIS land surface temperature products to generate time series of daytime and nighttime urban heat island effects for 30 large cities across the globe, and empirically analyzed these data to determine specifically which remote sensing-based characterizations of global urban areas have explanatory power with regard to both daytime and nighttime urban heat islands.

  7. Rapid Urban Growth and Land Use Patterns in Doha, Qatar: Opportunities for Sustainability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivek Shandas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Amidst chaotic growth of Asian cities, the expansion of urban infrastructure in the Middle East's Gulf region is arguably outpacing any other region on the planet. Yet we have a limited understanding of the types of urban form or the extent to which this rapid urbanization is giving rise to sustainable patterns of growth. We ask, what is the pace and character of urban growth in one Middle East city, Doha, Qatar. By using remotely sensed imagery from 1987 to 2013, we examined the pace, quality, and characteristics of urban growth. We further use the results to create a typology of urban growth that integrates historical and spatial dimensions for describing the qualitative aspects of growth and its implications on regional landscapes. Our results suggest that Doha is creating development patterns similar to many Western cities, and that planners may need to consider whether the emerging urban form offers opportunities for more sustainable growth in the future.

  8. ECONOMIC gROWTH, GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between economic growth, globalization and trade. The manuscript uses the assumptions of the economic growth exogenous and endogenous models. It introduces new proxies for explain the economic growth as in intra-industry trade, foreign direct investment and globalization index. The results indicate that economic growth is a dynamic process. The intra-industry has a positive impact on economic growth. This paper confirms relevan...

  9. Change detection of runoff-urban growth relationship in urbanised watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abas, Aisya Azizah; Hashim, Mazlan

    2014-01-01

    Urban growth has negative environmental impacts that create water-based disasters such as flash floods and storm runoff causing billions of dollars worth of damage each year. Due to serious flash floods in urbanised areas of Malaysia, water resource management is a vital issue. This paper reports on a study that has been carried out using remote sensing techniques and hydrological modelling for examining the spatial patterns changes of urban areas and its impacts on surface runoff. The estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) method was performed by integrating both remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing is a data sources for monitoring urban growth by quantifying the changes of urban area and its environmental impact are then analysed by using a GIS-based hydrological model. By linking the integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS, the relationship of runoff with urban expansion are further examined. Hence, the changes in runoff due to urbanisation are analysed. This methodology is applied to the central region of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, where rapid urban growth has occurred over the last decade. The results showed that there was a significant between spatial patterns of urban growth and estimated runoff depth. The increase in runoff from year 2000, 2006 and 2010 are estimated about five percent

  10. Planning urban megaprojects in the Gulf: The international consultancy firms in urban planning between global and contingent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oula Aoun

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Driven by globalization and market openings, many architecture and engineering firms have become global. By focusing on the urban megaprojects in the Gulf, a particular cultural and political context, this paper argues that such firms have a major role in the rapid urban transformation of Gulf countries and act as transfer agents of an international knowledge in the urban planning domain. However, the transfer is adapted by several context-related characteristics, such as local governance, urban knowledge, and regulatory framework. This paper explores the procedural adaptation of these firms to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC in terms of internal structure, methodology, adopted tools, and interaction with the context. The level of learning that results from this transfer is also investigated.

  11. Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

  12. Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gomes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC reacts to demographic pressures, economic trends, or improved transport networks. Urban growth with implications on LUCC patterns can be measured using a diversity of methods. Our study derives from Tobler’s first law of geography: ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant ones’. We identified and measured the influence of neighbouring distance on urban growth from the edge of existing urban areas. For that, we have developed a method, built using the NetLogo software tool, which we called Land-use chAnge and Neighbouring Distance (LAND. We selected Torres Vedras (Portugal to conduct our case study due to its increasing urban development in the past few years. The periods of analysis were 1995–2010, 1995–2007, and 2007–2010. The results have shown the influence and the effect of strong spatial correlation between the proximity of existing artificial surfaces and the emergence of new ones. The understanding of the patterns of urban growth is helpful to plan forward land developments. This method can be used to write guidelines for decision makers to monitor urban expansion and define spatial planning priorities.

  13. Classification of Global Urban Centers Using ASTER Data: Preliminary Results From the Urban Environmental Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, W. L.; Stefanov, W. L.; Christensen, P. R.

    2001-05-01

    Land cover and land use changes associated with urbanization are important drivers of global ecologic and climatic change. Quantification and monitoring of these changes are part of the primary mission of the ASTER instrument, and comprise the fundamental research objective of the Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) Program. The UEM program will acquire day/night, visible through thermal infrared ASTER data twice per year for 100 global urban centers over the duration of the mission (6 years). Data are currently available for a number of these urban centers and allow for initial comparison of global city structure using spatial variance texture analysis of the 15 m/pixel visible to near infrared ASTER bands. Variance texture analysis highlights changes in pixel edge density as recorded by sharp transitions from bright to dark pixels. In human-dominated landscapes these brightness variations correlate well with urbanized vs. natural land cover and are useful for characterizing the geographic extent and internal structure of cities. Variance texture analysis was performed on twelve urban centers (Albuquerque, Baghdad, Baltimore, Chongqing, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Lisbon, Madrid, Phoenix, Puebla, Riyadh, Vancouver) for which cloud-free daytime ASTER data are available. Image transects through each urban center produce texture profiles that correspond to urban density. These profiles can be used to classify cities into centralized (ex. Baltimore), decentralized (ex. Phoenix), or intermediate (ex. Madrid) structural types. Image texture is one of the primary data inputs (with vegetation indices and visible to thermal infrared image spectra) to a knowledge-based land cover classifier currently under development for application to ASTER UEM data as it is acquired. Collaboration with local investigators is sought to both verify the accuracy of the knowledge-based system and to develop more sophisticated classification models.

  14. Globalization, Growth and Poverty

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One-pagers are a publication of IDRC's “Globalization, Growth and Poverty” Program Initiative, and are based on ... countries, mainly the fast-growing economies of East Asia. ... had no significant overall impact on investment and growth. Other.

  15. The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2011-01-01

    The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

  16. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  17. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  18. Impacts of urban growth and heat waves events on the urban heat island in Bucharest city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2016-10-01

    This study investigated the influences of urban growth and heat waves events on Urban Heat Island in relationship with several biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania through satellite and in-situ monitoring data. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- temperature interactions over period between 2000 and 2016 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters (surface albedo, precipitations, wind intensity and direction) have been analyzed. Results show that in the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

  19. Nature-based solutions for urban landscapes under post-industrialization and globalization: Barcelona versus Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Ouyang, Zutao; Basnou, Corina; Pino, Joan; Park, Hogeun; Chen, Jiquan

    2017-07-01

    Using Barcelona and Shanghai as case studies, we examined the nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban settings-specifically within cities experiencing post-industrialization and globalization. Our specific research questions are: (1) What are the spatiotemporal changes in urban built-up land and green space in Barcelona and Shanghai? (2) What are the relationships between economic development, exemplified by post-industrialization, globalization, and urban green space? Urban land use and green space change were evaluated using data derived from a variety of sources, including satellite images, landscape matrix indicators, and a land conversion matrix. The relationships between economic development, globalization, and environmental quality were analyzed through partial least squares structural equation modeling based on secondary statistical data. Both Barcelona and Shanghai have undergone rapid urbanization, with urban expansion in Barcelona beginning in the 1960s-1970s and in Shanghai in the last decade. While Barcelona's urban green space and green space per capita began declining between the 1950s and 1990s, they increased slightly over the past two decades. Shanghai, however, has consistently and significantly improved urban green space and green space per capita over the past six decades, especially since the economic reform in 1978. Economic development has a direct and significant influence on urban green space for both cities and post-industrialization had served as the main driving force for urban landscape change in Barcelona and Shanghai. Based on secondary statistical and qualitative data from on-site observations and interviews with local experts, we highlighted the institution's role in NBS planning. Furthermore, aspiration to become a global or globalizing city motivated both cities to use NBS planning as a place-making tool to attract global investment, which is reflected in various governing policies and regulations. The cities' effort to achieve a

  20. Constructing spatialised knowledge on urban poverty : (multiple) dimensions, mapping spaces and claim-making in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baud, I.; Lemanski, C.; Marx, C.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, increasing attention is given to poverty issues in urban areas in the Global South. This follows recognition that population growth is shifting to urban areas, as more than half the world population is found in urban areas, which are expected to grow mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan

  1. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  2. Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yanguang

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

  3. Social Theories of Urban Violence in the Global South | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-04-25

    Apr 25, 2018 ... Book cover: Social Theories of Urban Violence in the Global South ... Call for new OWSD Fellowships for Early Career Women Scientists now open ... adaptive water management: Innovative solutions from the Global South”.

  4. Urban sprawl and growth management - drivers, impacts and responses in selected European and US cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2016-01-01

    Urban growth management has become a common term to circumscribe strategies and tools to regulate urban land use in metropolitan areas. It is particularly used to counteract negative impacts of urban sprawl but also to frame future urban development. We discuss recent challenges of urban growth...... in 6 European and 2 US American city-regions. The paper compares the urban development focusing on a quantification of drivers and effects of urban growth and a qualitative analysis of the applied urban growth management tools. We build our analysis on findings from the EU-FP6 project PLUREL...

  5. Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

    2017-12-31

    For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

    2018-04-01

    Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

  7. Do motorways shape urban growth?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder

    2005-01-01

    results suggest that the motorway most markedly influences the location of non-residential building activities within the city – in favour of locations near the entrance points to/from the motorway network. The development can be explained in part by municipal planning, which in some instances has opened......The paper is an offspring from the Research project Town, Road and Landscape that aims to assess the effect of the Danish motorway network (specifically the last 20 years) on urban growth and interaction patterns. As one of the main interests of the project is the changing urban form...... and the changing character of the roadscape, the impact of the motorway is in part analysed with micro level data, spatial statistics and GIS – to allowing mapping of changing development trends in motorway corridors. The paper presents analysis of the impact of motorway openings on urban form in two Danish...

  8. A new map of global urban extent from MODIS satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, A; Friedl, M A; Potere, D

    2009-01-01

    Although only a small percentage of global land cover, urban areas significantly alter climate, biogeochemistry, and hydrology at local, regional, and global scales. To understand the impact of urban areas on these processes, high quality, regularly updated information on the urban environment-including maps that monitor location and extent-is essential. Here we present results from efforts to map the global distribution of urban land use at 500 m spatial resolution using remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our approach uses a supervised decision tree classification algorithm that we process using region-specific parameters. An accuracy assessment based on sites from a stratified random sample of 140 cities shows that the new map has an overall accuracy of 93% (k = 0.65) at the pixel level and a high level of agreement at the city scale (R 2 = 0.90). Our results (available at http://sage.wisc.edu/urbanenvironment.html) also reveal that the land footprint of cities occupies less than 0.5% of the Earth's total land area.

  9. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1km)...

  10. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

  11. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

  12. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Urban Extent Polygons, Revision 01

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The primary output of the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) are a series of grids representing estimated population counts and density for the...

  14. A Global-Scale Estimate of Ecosystem Services from Urban Agriculture: Understanding Incentives for Natural Capital in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, N.; Stuhlmacher, M.; Miles, A.; Uludere, N.; Wagner, M.; Georgescu, M.; Herwig, C.; Gong, P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite substantial interest in urban agriculture, little is known about the aggregate benefits conferred by natural capital for growing food in cities. Here we perform a scenario-based analysis to quantify ecosystem services from adoption of urban agriculture at varying intensity. To drive the scenarios, we created global-scale estimates of vacant land, rooftop and building surface area, at one kilometer resolution, from remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data. We used national scale agricultural reports, climate and other geospatial data at global scale to estimate agricultural production and economic returns, storm-water avoidance, energy savings from avoided heating and cooling costs, and ecosystem services provided by nitrogen sequestration, pollination and biocontrol of pests. The results indicate that vacant lands, followed by rooftops, represent the largest opportunities for natural capital put to agricultural use in urban areas. Ecosystem services from putting such spaces to productive use are dominated by agricultural returns, but energy savings conferred by insulative characteristics of growth substrate also provide economic incentives. Storm water avoidance was estimated to be substantial, but no economic value was estimated. Relatively low economic returns were estimated from the other ecosystem services examined. In aggregate, approximately $10-100 billion in economic incentives, before costs, were estimated. The results showed that relatively developed, high-income countries stand the most to gain from urban agricultural adoption due to the unique combination of climate, crop mixture and crop prices. While the results indicate that urban agriculture is not a panacea for urban food security issues, there is potential to simultaneously ameliorate multiple issues around food, energy and water in urbanized areas.

  15. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

    2017-01-01

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

  16. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  17. Are autonomous cities our urban future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Barbara

    2018-05-29

    Cities are rapidly expanding in size, wealth and power, with some now larger than nation states. Smart city solutions and strong global urban networks are developing to manage massive urban growth. However, cities exist within a wider system and it may take more than technological advances, innovation and city autonomy to develop a sustainable urban future.

  18. ASSESSMENT OF URBAN BUILT ENVIRONMENT QUALITY ON THE URBANIZED TERRITORIES: INTERREGIONAL COMPARISONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovsiannikova T. Yu.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The urbanization and growth of a cities role, formation of cities as reference points of regions economic development are modern global tendencies. Cities concentrate human and investment resources on their territory, so in large part cities cause competitiveness of the regions in the global market. For preservation of competitive advantages regions need to form on the urbanized territories not only the favorable environment for business, but also for the population life. This paper deals with the problem of an assessment of urban built environment quality, due to urban built environment is a space-material basis of life quality of the population on the urbanized territories. The role of the cities in social and economic development of regions and their considerable influence on competitiveness of territories in the global competition for economic resources are proved. The method of assessment of urban built environment quality on the basis of calculation of an integrated index is proposed. Interregional comparisons on the example of regions of the Siberian and Ural Federal districts are completed. The offered method of assessment of urban built environment quality allows to range the urbanized territories on usefulness for living, to reveal most and the least developed spheres of city infrastructure.

  19. Assessing the drivers shaping global patterns of urban vegetation landscape structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, C; Nitschke, C; Kendal, D

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation is one of the main resources involve in ecosystem functioning and providing ecosystem services in urban areas. Little is known on the landscape structure patterns of vegetation existing in urban areas at the global scale and the drivers of these patterns. We studied the landscape structure of one hundred cities around the globe, and their relation to demography (population), socioeconomic factors (GDP, Gini Index), climate factors (temperature and rain) and topographic characteristics (altitude, variation in altitude). The data revealed that the best descriptors of landscape structure were amount, fragmentation and spatial distribution of vegetation. Populated cities tend to have less, more fragmented, less connected vegetation with a centre of the city with low vegetation cover. Results also provided insights on the influence of socioeconomics at a global scale, as landscape structure was more fragmented in areas that are economically unequal and coming from emergent economies. This study shows the effects of the social system and climate on urban landscape patterns that gives useful insights for the distribution in the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas and therefore the maintenance of human well-being. This information can support local and global policy and planning which is committing our cities to provide accessible and inclusive green space for all urban inhabitants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Is global dimming and brightening in Japan limited to urban areas?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tanaka

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide observations indicate secular trends of all-sky surface solar radiation on a decadal time scale, termed global dimming and brightening. Accordingly, the observed surface radiation in Japan generally shows a strong decline until the end of the 1980s and then a recovery until around 2000. Because a substantial number of measurement stations are located within or close to populated areas, one may speculate that the observed trends are strongly influenced by local air pollution and are thus not of large-scale significance. This hypothesis poses a serious question as to what regional extent the global dimming and brightening are significant: are the global dimming and brightening truly global phenomena, or regional, or even only local? Our study focused on 14 meteorological observatories that measured all-sky surface solar radiation, zenith transmittance, and maximum transmittance. On the basis of municipality population time series, historical land use maps, recent satellite images, and actual site visits, we concluded that eight stations have been significantly influenced by urbanization, with the remaining six stations being left pristine. Between the urban and rural areas, no marked differences were identified in the temporal trends of the aforementioned meteorological parameters. Our findings suggest that global dimming and brightening in Japan occurred on a large scale, independently of urbanization.

  1. Does globalization contribute to economic growth in developing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines empirically whether or not globalization contributes to economic growth in developing countries, drawing empirical lessons from Nigeria. The globalizationgrowth link, is anchored on Husain Schematic representation, Solow model, and the new growth (endogenous growth) theory. The paper adopts ...

  2. Inter-Regional Spillovers and Urban-Rural Disparity in U.S. Employment Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Hisamitsu Saito; Munisamy Gopinath; JunJie Wu

    2011-01-01

    A wide urban-rural disparity is observed in employment growth in the United States. For example, employment growth averaged 2.1 percent in urban counties during 1998-2007, compared with just 1 percent in rural counties. In this study, we examine the sources of U.S. employment growth using the county-level industry data. From an analytical labor-market model, we derive equilibrium employment growth as a function of growth in neighborhood characteristics and initial conditions such as accumulat...

  3. Urban Teens: Trauma, Posttraumatic Growth, and Emotional Distress among Female Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickovics, Jeanette R.; Meade, Christina S.; Kershaw, Trace S.; Milan, Stephanie; Lewis, Jessica B.; Ethier, Kathleen A.

    2006-01-01

    Urban teens face many traumas, with implications for potential growth and distress. This study examined traumatic events, posttraumatic growth, and emotional distress over 18 months among urban adolescent girls (N = 328). Objectives were to (a) describe types of traumatic events, (b) determine how type and timing of events relate to profiles of…

  4. Unveiling 25 Years of Planetary Urbanization with Remote Sensing: Perspectives from the Global Human Settlement Layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Melchiorri

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last few decades the magnitude and impacts of planetary urban transformations have become increasingly evident to scientists and policymakers. The ability to understand these processes remained limited in terms of territorial scope and comparative capacity for a long time: data availability and harmonization were among the main constraints. Contemporary technological assets, such as remote sensing and machine learning, allow for analyzing global changes in the settlement process with unprecedented detail. The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL project set out to produce detailed datasets to analyze and monitor the spatial footprint of human settlements and their population, which are key indicators for the global policy commitments of the 2030 Development Agenda. In the GHSL, Earth Observation plays a key role in the detection of built-up areas from the Landsat imagery upon which population distribution is modelled. The combination of remote sensing imagery and population modelling allows for generating globally consistent and detailed information about the spatial distribution of built-up areas and population. The GHSL data facilitate a multi-temporal analysis of human settlements with global coverage. The results presented in this article focus on the patterns of development of built-up areas, population and settlements. The article reports about the present status of global urbanization (2015 and its evolution since 1990 by applying to the GHSL the Degree of Urbanisation definition of the European Commission Directorate General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG-Regio and the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT. The analysis portrays urbanization dynamics at a regional level and per country income classes to show disparities and inequalities. This study analyzes how the 6.1 billion urban dwellers are distributed worldwide. Results show the degree of global urbanization (which reached 85% in 2015, the more than 100

  5. The New Global Urban Realm: Complex, Connected, Diffuse, and Diverse Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa R. McHale

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization continues to be a transformative process globally, affecting ecosystem integrity and the health and well being of people around the world. Although cities tend to be centers for both the production and consumption of goods and services that degrade natural environments, there is also evidence that urban ecosystems can play a positive role in sustainability efforts. Despite the fact that most of the urbanization is now occurring in the developing countries of the Global South, much of what we know about urban ecosystems has been developed from studying cities in the United States and across Europe. We propose a conceptual framework to broaden the development of urban ecological research and its application to sustainability. Our framework describes four key contemporary urban features that should be accounted for in any attempt to build a unified theory of cities that contributes to urban sustainability efforts. We evaluated a range of examples from cities around the world, highlighting how urban areas are complex, connected, diffuse and diverse and what these interconnected features mean for the study of urban ecosystems and sustainability.

  6. Monitoring urban growth around Rustenburg, South Africa, using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nale Mudau

    spatial growth of Rustenburg city in South Africa from 2007 to 2012 using ... Many studies point out that population growth in urban areas is a result of ... maximum likelihood, minimum distance, spectral unmixing and neutral networks. ..... Bands (Case Study: Arid Region of Iran)', American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural.

  7. The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the

  8. Strategies for Low-Carbon Green Growth and Urban Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichung Yang

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: National policies and strategies for low-carbon green growth in Korea are reviewed in this study. Providing standards and guidelines for urban comprehensive planning and management plans is necessary so that the series of plans can deal with possible effects from climate changes. Urban planning guidelines for management and improvements to achieve low carbon green growth were set up and implemented, focusing on institutional and regulatory foundations. These deal with climate change influences on urban planning, reduction of green house gas emissions and elevation of energy efficiency based on plans of land use units. In the case of Seoul city, transit-oriented compact development, public transportation-oriented structure, green space expansion, and pleasant living spaces are implemented in relation to urban structure and land use. We should suggest systematic and comprehensive countermeasures against greenhouse gas emissions and climate changes in terms of spatial structure, transportation systems, natural resource conservation, environment management, energy and open spaces. For the Seoul mega-city, plans show the capabilities of the policy department including many policy tools. Reflecting smart city, ubiquitous city, and U-Eco city concepts and human behavior, we should move towards increasing efficiency and maintaining sustainable economic growth. KEYWORDS: Low-carbon green growth, urban management, Korea, Seoul

  9. On the urban heat island effect dependence on temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camilloni, I.; Barros, V.

    1997-01-01

    For US, Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (ΔT u-r ) and rural temperatures (T r ) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual variability of temperature is generally lower in urban environments than in rural areas. This seems to hold true at low frequencies leading to opposite trends in the two variables. Hence, urban stations are prone to have lower trends in absolute value than rural ones. Therefore, regional data sets including records from urban locations, in addition to urban growth bias may have a second type of urban bias associated with temperature trends. A bulk estimate of this second urban bias trend for the contiguous United States during 1901-1984 indicates that it could be of the same order as the urban growth bias and of opposite sign. If these results could be extended to global data, it could be expected that the spurious influence of urban growth on global temperature trends during warming periods will be offset by the diminishing of the urban heat island intensity. 36 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model

  11. Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

    2018-01-01

    Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

  12. Compelling Factors of Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cntaganda

    These grouped habitats are intended to improve aspects of service- delivery such as water, ... dance with global trends and of satisfying the priorities of inter- national funding .... Natural population growth in urban areas but more specifically, ..... strategy should be pursued, together with meaningful interventions aimed at ...

  13. South African cities and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Vacchiani-Marcuzzo

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Illustration 1 – Centre des affaires, Le CapAuteur : Céline Vacchiani-Marcuzzo.Born with colonial settlement patterns, the South-African urban system has experienced half a century of Apartheid. Under the effects of globalization, this urban system evolves as more developed urban systems and mature settlement patterns. This urbanization process (in the limits of functional urban agglomeration makes South Africa one of the most advanced countries in Africa in terms of urban growth. The world-...

  14. Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

    2012-01-01

    The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

  15. Urban development and global sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferlaino Fiorenzo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the 1950s, the economist Simon Kuznets theorized the existence of a bell-shaped curve describing the correlation between the level of GDP per capita and income inequality. This generated another hypothesis concerning the existence of an inverted-U relationship between income per capita (GDP and environmental impact. By means of a cross-country analysis, the article shows that, at least at the global scale, an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC does not exist, but rather an Environmental Urban Curve (EUC. The city exhibits an complex socioeconomic metabolism that we can define in terms of dissipative and resilience territorial structures.

  16. Globalization and the "Identity Remix" among Urban Adolescents in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mrinalini A.; Berry, Ruhi; Gonsalves, Ayesha; Hastak, Yogita; Shah, Mukti; Roeser, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined adolescents' perceptions of cultural change and identity development during an age of globalization in India. Analyses of data from 1497 Indian, urban, middle-class 12-15-year-olds (46% girls) revealed that these youth were aware of changes in their daily lives due to globalization and evaluated such changes in a pragmatic…

  17. A Global Characterization of Urban Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, T.; Lee, X.

    2017-12-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect refers to the higher temperatures in urban areas, and it is one of the most well-known consequences of urbanization on local climate. In the present study, we define a new simplified urban-boundary (SUB) algorithm to quantify the daytime and nighttime surface UHIs on a global scale based on 16 years of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data. The results from the algorithm are validated against previous studies and used to determine the diurnal, monthly, and long-term variation in the surface UHI for over 9000 urban clusters situated in the different Koppen-Geiger climate zones,namely equatorial, arid, warm temperate, snow, and polar. Thus, the variability of the surface UHI for each climate class is determined using a consistent methodology for the first time. The 16-year mean global daytime surface UHI is 0.71 ± 0.93 °C at 1030 LT and 1.00 ± 1.17 °C at 1330 LT, while the nighttime surface UHI is 0.51 ± 0.50 °C at 2230 LT and 0.42 ± 0.52 °C at 0130 LT. This is in good agreement with the results from previous studies, which have looked at the UHI for multiple cities. Summer surface UHI is larger than winter surface UHI across all climate zones. The annual daytime surface UHI is highest in the polar urban clusters (1.77 ± 1.61 °C), followed by snow (1.39 ± 1.17 °C), equatorial (1.21 ± 1.32 °C), warm temperate (1.02 ± 0.98 °C), and arid (0.18 ± 1.27 °C). Urban clusters in the arid climate are found to show different diurnal and seasonal patterns, with higher nighttime surface UHI (0.65 ± 0.58 °C) and two seasonal peaks during the year. The diurnal variation in surface UHI is highest in the polar zone (1.16 °C) and lowest in the arid zone (0.57 °C). The inter-seasonality is also highest in the polar Zone (2.20 °C) and lowest in the arid zone (0.80 °C). Finally, we investigate the change in the surface UHI in more than a decade (2001 to 2013 for MODIS TERRA and 2003 to 2013 for MODIS AQUA) and find a gradual

  18. Measuring Urban Carbon Footprint from Carbon Flows in the Global Supply Chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yuanchao; Lin, Jianyi; Cui, Shenghui; Khanna, Nina Zheng

    2016-06-21

    A global multiregional input-output (MRIO) model was built for eight Chinese cities to track their carbon flows. For in-depth understanding of urban carbon footprint from the perspectives of production, consumption, and trade balance, four kinds of footprints and four redefined measurement indicators were calculated. From the global supply chain, urban carbon inflows from Mainland China were larger than outflows, while the carbon outflows to European, principal North American countries and East Asia were much larger than inflows. With the rapid urbanization of China, Construction was the largest consumer and Utilities was the largest producer. Cities with higher consumption (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Beijing) should change their consumption patterns, while cities with lower production efficiency (such as Dalian, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Chongqing) should improve their technology. The cities of net carbon consumption tended to transfer carbon emissions out of them by trading in carbon-intensive products, while the cities of net carbon production tended to produce carbon-intensive products for nonlocal consumers. Our results indicated that urban carbon abatement requires not only rational consumption and industrial symbiosis at the city level, but also tighter collaboration along all stages of the global supply chain.

  19. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

    2017-04-15

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Identifying the Risk Areas and Urban Growth by ArcGIS-Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Hamdy

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abouelreesh is one of the most at risk areas in Aswan, Egypt, which suffers from storms, poor drainage, and flash flooding. These phenomena affect the urban areas and cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the potential for the further realization of dangerous situations increased when the urban areas of Abouelreesh extended towards the risk areas. In an effort to ameliorate the danger, two key issues for urban growth management were studied, namely: (i estimations regarding the pace of urban sprawl, and (ii the identification of urban areas located in regions that would be affected by flash floods. Analyzing these phenomena require a lot of data in order to obtain good results, but in our case, the official data or field data was limited so we tried to obtain it by accessing two kinds of free sources of satellite data. First, we used Arc GIS tools to analyze (digital elevation model (DEM files in order to study the watershed and better identify the risk area. Second, we studied historical imagery in Google Earth to determine the age of each urban block. The urban growth rate in the risk areas had risen to 63.31% in 2001. Urban growth in the case study area had been influenced by house sizes, because most people were looking to live in bigger houses. The aforementioned problem can be observed by considering the increasing average house sizes from 2001 until 2013, where, especially in risky areas, the average of house sizes had grown from 223 m2 in 2001 to 318 m2 in 2013. The findings from this study would be useful to urban planners and government officials in helping them to make informed decisions on urban development to benefit the community, especially those living in areas at risk from flash flooding from heavy rain events.

  1. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  2. [Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco Chavez, B

    1991-01-01

    The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  3. Impact of vegetation growth on urban surface temperature distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buyadi, S N A; Mohd, W M N W; Misni, A

    2014-01-01

    Earlier studies have indicated that, the temperature distribution in the urban area is significantly warmer than its surrounding suburban areas. The process of urbanization has created urban heat island (UHI). As a city expands, trees are cut down to accommodate commercial development, industrial areas, roads, and suburban growth. Trees or green areas normally play a vital role in mitigating the UHI effects especially in regulating high temperature in saturated urban areas. This study attempts to assess the effects of vegetation growth on land surface temperature (LST) distribution in urban areas. An area within the City of Shah Alam, Selangor has been selected as the study area. Land use/land cover and LST maps of two different dates are generated from Landsat 5 TM images of the year 1991 and 2009. Only five major land cover classes are considered in this study. Mono-window algorithm is used to generate the LST maps. Landsat 5 TM images are also used to generate the NDVI maps. Results from this study have shown that there are significant land use changes within the study area. Although the conversion of green areas into residential and commercial areas significantly increase the LST, matured trees will help to mitigate the effects of UHI

  4. Global Garbage: Urban Imaginaries of Waste, Excess and Abandonment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindner, C.; Meissner, M.

    2016-01-01

    Global Garbage examines the ways in which garbage, in its diverse forms, is being produced, managed, experienced, imagined, circulated, concealed, and aestheticized in contemporary urban environments and across different creative and cultural practices. The book explores the increasingly complex

  5. Globalization, Growth and Poverty

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One-pagers are a publication of IDRC's “Globalization, Growth and Poverty” Program Initiative, and are based on findings from the ... Does exporting matter for the poor in South Africa? ... strategies to promote employment and higher wages in.

  6. Small cities in generalized urbanization and global crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Capel

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, referring to the small city means talking about a space that can be connected in every way to the rest of the World, and yet features a particular social and morphologic environment, which is different to that of large cities, and that may therefore be rather attractive. In the current situation of Generalized Urbanization, the meaning of middle and small cities is changing, with respect to what happened in the past. While it could long be asserted that urban growth was a very positive fact (the larger, the better, since the decade of the sixties, when the controversy about growth limits was raised, this perspective began to change. Nowadays it is certainly true that, in some cases, the lesser that growth is, the better, and in every situation, the most balanced it is, the better. Today, small cities may have significant advantages over large ones: they can be innovative, hold education centers, enjoy access to knowledge and culture, and be well communicated with areas of dynamic economic development. And besides all of this, they can be very agreeable places to live in.

  7. Transport Infrastructure and the Environment in the Global South: Sustainable Mobility and Urbanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Cervero

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Integrasi infrastruktur transportasi dan perkembangan kota harus ditingkatkan kepentingannya. Di banyak kota di belahan bumi bagian selatan, investasi pada Bus Rapid Transit (BRT memberikan kesempatan untuk peningkatan tersebut. Akan tetapi, sampai saat ini, sistem BRT telah gagal dalam menciptakan pembangunan yang kompak dan multi-guna bukan saja karena kurangnya perencanaan strategis kawasan stasiun tetapi juga dampak dari penempatan jalur-jalur dan stasiun pada wilayah perkotaan yang stagnan dan pada median jalan yang sibuk. Sistem BRT selama ini dipertimbangkan dan dirancang sebagai suatu investasi pergerakan dan bukan pembentuk kota. Disebabkan mayoritas pertumbuhan kota di masa depan di seluruh dunia akan berada pada kota-kota menengah yang cocok untuk investasi BRT, kesempatan untuk membuat sistem BRT sebagai investasi pembentuk kota tidak boleh disia-siakan. Pembangunan yang berorientasi transit adalah salah satu dari sejumlah model yang paling menjanjikan untuk mendorong pola pergerakan dan urbanisasi yang lebih berkelanjutan di kota-kota di belahan bumi selatan.Kata kunci. Transportasi publik, bus rapid transit, tata guna lahan, keberlanjutan, pembangunan berorientasi transitAbstract. The integration of transport infrastructure and urban development must be elevated in importance. In many cities of the Global South, recent Bus Rapid Transit (BRT investments provide an unprecedented opportunity to do just that. To date, however, BRT systems have failed to leverage compact, mixed-use development due not only to little strategic station-area planning but also factors like siting lines and stations in stagnant urban districts and busy roadway medians. BRT systems are being conceived and designed as mobility investments rather than city-shaping ones. Given that the majority of future urban growth worldwide will be in intermediate-size cities well-suited for BRT investments, the opportunities for making these not only mobility

  8. Surface urban heat island across 419 global big cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ottle, Catherine; Bréon, François-Marie; Nan, Huijuan; Zhou, Liming; Myneni, Ranga B

    2012-01-17

    Urban heat island is among the most evident aspects of human impacts on the earth system. Here we assess the diurnal and seasonal variation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) defined as the surface temperature difference between urban area and suburban area measured from the MODIS. Differences in SUHII are analyzed across 419 global big cities, and we assess several potential biophysical and socio-economic driving factors. Across the big cities, we show that the average annual daytime SUHII (1.5 ± 1.2 °C) is higher than the annual nighttime SUHII (1.1 ± 0.5 °C) (P < 0.001). But no correlation is found between daytime and nighttime SUHII across big cities (P = 0.84), suggesting different driving mechanisms between day and night. The distribution of nighttime SUHII correlates positively with the difference in albedo and nighttime light between urban area and suburban area, while the distribution of daytime SUHII correlates negatively across cities with the difference of vegetation cover and activity between urban and suburban areas. Our results emphasize the key role of vegetation feedbacks in attenuating SUHII of big cities during the day, in particular during the growing season, further highlighting that increasing urban vegetation cover could be one effective way to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

  9. Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

    2016-06-01

    How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

  10. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  11. The urban land debate in the global South : New avenues for research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steel, Griet|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304349828; van Noorloos, Femke|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/342952706; Klaufus, Christien

    2017-01-01

    The global ‘land grab’ debate is going urban and needs a specific conceptual framework to analyze the diverse modalities through which land commodification and speculation are transforming cities across the globe. This article identifies new avenues for research on urban land issues by drawing on an

  12. The urban land debate in the global South : New avenues for research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steel, G.; van Noorloos, F.; Klaufus, C.

    The global ‘land grab’ debate is going urban and needs a specific conceptual framework to analyze the diverse modalities through which land commodification and speculation are transforming cities across the globe. This article identifies new avenues for research on urban land issues by drawing on an

  13. Urban and global populism: An analysis of Jakarta as Resilient City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustikarini, A.; Kabinawa, L. N. R. W.

    2018-03-01

    One of the important elements of friendly city is its cordiality towards diversity. Cities will naturally attract people from different nationalities to live, study and work. The rapid development of cities has long been regarded as major drive of urbanization from other areas which contributed to the high level of ethnic and race diversities. However diversity is currently seen under threat due to the rise of global populism that is mainly fuelled by anxiety over economic condition. The growth of nationalist movement, anti-immigrant parties and xenophobia is gaining foothold across the planet. Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the nexus between diversity and inequality in Jakarta. The current local election provides example of these two competing concepts. Jakarta as emerging global city with diverse communities had been marred by public protest and narration of identity issues. On the other hands, populism has deep root in severe economic inequality among the residents. A robust development in Jakarta has been marked by concentration of wealth in the hands of few. This paper presents case study on the root causes of growing populism and its relations with inequality in Jakarta.

  14. Tree Productivity Enhanced with Conversion from Forest to Urban Land Covers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briber, Brittain M; Hutyra, Lucy R; Reinmann, Andrew B; Raciti, Steve M; Dearborn, Victoria K; Holden, Christopher E; Dunn, Allison L

    2015-01-01

    Urban areas are expanding, changing the structure and productivity of landscapes. While some urban areas have been shown to hold substantial biomass, the productivity of these systems is largely unknown. We assessed how conversion from forest to urban land uses affected both biomass structure and productivity across eastern Massachusetts. We found that urban land uses held less than half the biomass of adjacent forest expanses with a plot level mean biomass density of 33.5 ± 8.0 Mg C ha(-1). As the intensity of urban development increased, the canopy cover, stem density, and biomass decreased. Analysis of Quercus rubra tree cores showed that tree-level basal area increment nearly doubled following development, increasing from 17.1 ± 3.0 to 35.8 ± 4.7 cm(2) yr(-1). Scaling the observed stem densities and growth rates within developed areas suggests an aboveground biomass growth rate of 1.8 ± 0.4 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), a growth rate comparable to nearby, intact forests. The contrasting high growth rates and lower biomass pools within urban areas suggest a highly dynamic ecosystem with rapid turnover. As global urban extent continues to grow, cities consider climate mitigation options, and as the verification of net greenhouse gas emissions emerges as critical for policy, quantifying the role of urban vegetation in regional-to-global carbon budgets will become ever more important.

  15. Comprehensive evaluation system of intelligent urban growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lian-Yan; Ren, Xiao-Bin

    2017-06-01

    With the rapid urbanization of the world, urban planning has become increasingly important and necessary to ensure people have access to equitable and sustainable homes, resources and jobs.This article is to talk about building an intelligent city evaluation system.First,using System Analysis Model(SAM) which concludes literature data analysis and stepwise regression analysis to describe intelligent growth scientifically and obtain the evaluation index. Then,using the improved entropy method to obtain the weight of the evaluation index.Afterwards, establishing a complete Smart Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Model(SGCEM).Finally,testing the correctness of the model.Choosing Otago(New Zealand )and Yumen(China) as research object by data mining and SGCEM model,then we get Yumen and Otago’s rational degree’s values are 0.3485 and 0.5376 respectively. It’s believed that the Otago’s smart level is higher,and it is found that the estimated value of rationality is consistent with the reality.

  16. [Has the urban transition ended in sub-Saharan Africa?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquier, P

    1999-01-01

    In 1950, 28% of the world¿s population lived in cities. At that point, localities larger than 10,000 inhabitants were home to 0.7 billion people, of whom 36% were in developing countries. However, according to UN projections, the rate of urbanization will reach 47.4% in 2000, with cities housing 2.9 billion people, of whom 68.7% will be in developing countries. Africa, like other continents, is urbanizing. Although Africa is among the world¿s least urbanized regions, it is nonetheless the continent with the highest rate of urbanization. Urban population growth reached its height during the 1950s, then the urban population in the region multiplied by a factor of 10 during 1950-90, far outpacing the rate of overall population growth on the continent. However, during the 1980s and 1990s, urban growth in Africa declined sharply. The author discusses urbanization in Africa devoid of industrialization, declining rates of urban population growth in the region, the uncertain future of urbanization in Africa, and how future urbanization in Africa depends upon the role the continent will play in the global economy.

  17. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

    2015-09-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

  18. Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obade, Vincent

    The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

  19. Characterizing Urban Heat Islands of Global Settlements Using MODIS and Nighttime Lights Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Bounoua, Lahouari

    2010-01-01

    Impervious surface area (ISA) from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and land surface temperature (LST) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) averaged over three annual cycles (2003-2005) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the urban heat island (UHI) signature on LST amplitude and its relationship with development intensity, size, and ecological setting for more than 3000 urban settlements globally. Development intensity zones based on fractional ISA are defined for each urban area emanating outward from the urban core to the nearby nonurban rural areas and used to stratify sampling for LST. Sampling is further constrained by biome type and elevation data to ensure objective intercomparisons between zones and between cities in different biomes. We find that the ecological context and settlement size significantly influence the amplitude of summer daytime UHI. Globally, an average of 3.8 C UHI is found in cities built in biomes dominated by forests; 1.9 C UHI in cities embedded in grass shrubs biomes; and only a weak UHI or sometimes an urban heat sink (UHS) in cities in arid and semi-arid biomes. Overall, the amplitude of the UHI is negatively correlated (R = -0.66) with the difference in vegetation density between urban and rural zones represented by the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Globally averaged, the daytime UHI amplitude for all settlements is 2.6 C in summer and 1.4 C in winter. Globally, the average summer daytime UHI is 4.7 C for settlements larger than 500 square kilometers compared with 2.5 C for settlements smaller than 50 square kilometers and larger than 10 square kilometers. The stratification of cities by size indicates that the aggregated amount of ISA is the primary driver of UHI amplitude, with variations between ecological contexts and latitudinal zones. More than 60% of the total LST variance is explained by ISA for urban settlements within forests at mid to high latitudes. This

  20. Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsborough, Juliet F.

    2002-01-01

    Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

  1. Understanding "Inclusive Growth": Advancing the global agenda ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2013-03-27

    Mar 27, 2013 ... Increasingly, the concept of "inclusive growth," where the benefits of economic growth are ... Growth is less likely to be sustainable with high and/or growing inequalities, and ... A global vision for small business in Egypt.

  2. Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread

  3. Social Theories of Urban Violence in the Global South: Towards ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-04-25

    Apr 25, 2018 ... Yet, social theory, largely developed and tested in the Global North, ... 15-project research programme, Social Theories of Urban Violence in the ... adapt existing theoretical and conceptual frameworks, others develop and test ...

  4. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Coastlines

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) consists of estimates of human population for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 by 30 arc-second (1km) grid...

  5. The Pan-University Network for Global Health: framework for collaboration and review of global health needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchester, M S; BeLue, R; Oni, T; Wittwer-Backofen, U; Deobagkar, D; Onya, H; Samuels, T A; Matthews, S A; Stone, C; Airhihenbuwa, C

    2016-04-21

    In the current United Nations efforts to plan for post 2015-Millennium Development Goals, global partnership to address non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has become a critical goal to effectively respond to the complex global challenges of which inequity in health remains a persistent challenge. Building capacity in terms of well-equipped local researchers and service providers is a key to bridging the inequity in global health. Launched by Penn State University in 2014, the Pan University Network for Global Health responds to this need by bridging researchers at more than 10 universities across the globe. In this paper we outline our framework for international and interdisciplinary collaboration, as well the rationale for our research areas, including a review of these two themes. After its initial meeting, the network has established two central thematic priorities: 1) urbanization and health and 2) the intersection of infectious diseases and NCDs. The urban population in the global south will nearly double in 25 years (approx. 2 billion today to over 3.5 billion by 2040). Urban population growth will have a direct impact on global health, and this growth will be burdened with uneven development and the persistence of urban spatial inequality, including health disparities. The NCD burden, which includes conditions such as hypertension, stroke, and diabetes, is outstripping infectious disease in countries in the global south that are considered to be disproportionately burdened by infectious diseases. Addressing these two priorities demands an interdisciplinary and multi-institutional model to stimulate innovation and synergy that will influence the overall framing of research questions as well as the integration and coordination of research.

  6. Tree Productivity Enhanced with Conversion from Forest to Urban Land Covers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brittain M Briber

    Full Text Available Urban areas are expanding, changing the structure and productivity of landscapes. While some urban areas have been shown to hold substantial biomass, the productivity of these systems is largely unknown. We assessed how conversion from forest to urban land uses affected both biomass structure and productivity across eastern Massachusetts. We found that urban land uses held less than half the biomass of adjacent forest expanses with a plot level mean biomass density of 33.5 ± 8.0 Mg C ha(-1. As the intensity of urban development increased, the canopy cover, stem density, and biomass decreased. Analysis of Quercus rubra tree cores showed that tree-level basal area increment nearly doubled following development, increasing from 17.1 ± 3.0 to 35.8 ± 4.7 cm(2 yr(-1. Scaling the observed stem densities and growth rates within developed areas suggests an aboveground biomass growth rate of 1.8 ± 0.4 Mg C ha(-1 yr(-1, a growth rate comparable to nearby, intact forests. The contrasting high growth rates and lower biomass pools within urban areas suggest a highly dynamic ecosystem with rapid turnover. As global urban extent continues to grow, cities consider climate mitigation options, and as the verification of net greenhouse gas emissions emerges as critical for policy, quantifying the role of urban vegetation in regional-to-global carbon budgets will become ever more important.

  7. Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

    2014-10-01

    Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  8. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  9. Global Green Growth Institute

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anders Riel

    2017-01-01

    Har man fulgt historien om Venstres gruppeformand Lars Løkkes rejser på 1. klasse i forbindelse med formandsposten for Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) er der sikkert nogle der undrer sig over, hvad GGGI er for en størrelse. Medierne præsenterer GGGI som en international klimaorganisation, der...

  10. Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

  11. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network, however, it is

  12. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network

  13. Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Herran, Diego; Dai, Hancheng; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed global onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas in terms of transmission losses and costs, and visibility (landscape impact) restrictions. Including this factor decreased the economic potential considerably depending on the level of supply cost considered (at least 37% and 16% for an economic potential below 10 and 14 US cents/kWh, respectively). Its importance compared to other factors was secondary below 15 US cents/kWh. At higher costs it was secondary only to land use, and was more important than economic and technical factors. The impact of this factor was mixed across all regions of the world, given the heterogeneity of wind resources in remote and proximal areas. Regions where available resources decreased the most included the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The supply cost chosen to evaluate the economic potential and uncertainties influencing the estimation of distance to the closest urban area are critical for the assessment. Neglecting the restrictions associated with integration into energy systems and social acceptability resulted in an overestimation of global onshore wind resources. These outcomes are fundamental for global climate policies because they help to clarify the limits of wind energy resource availability. - Highlights: • Global onshore wind resources were assessed including the distance to urban areas. • We evaluate the impact of transmission losses and cost, and visibility restrictions. • The distance to urban areas' impact was considerable, depending on the supply cost. • This factor's importance was secondary to economic, land use, and technical factors. • Neglecting this factor resulted in an overestimation of global wind resources.

  14. Simulating urban growth by emphasis on connective routes network (case study: Bojnourd city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Saadat Novin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to landuse changes especially in agricultural lands, which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper landuse planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today’s world. The prediction of urban growth can help in understanding the potential impacts on a region’s water resource, economy and people. One of the effective parameters in development of cities is connective routes network and their different types and qualities that play an important role in decreasing or increasing the growth of the city. On the other hand, the type of the connective routes network is an important factor for the speed and quality of development. In this paper, two different scenarios were used to simulate landuse changes and analyzing their results. In first scenario, modeling is based on the effective parameters in urban growth without classification of connective routes network. In the second scenario, effective parameters in urban growth were considered and connective routes were classified in 6 different classes with different weights in order to examine their effect on urban development. Simulation of landuse has been carried out for 2020–2050. The results clearly showed the effect of the connective routes network classification in output maps so that the effect of the first and second main routes network in development, is conspicuous.

  15. Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

    2016-01-01

    Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

  16. Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Huan

    Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our

  17. Urban Landscape Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederick Steiner

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Cities present significant opportunities for new landscape perspectives that can help inform conservation and development decisions. Early in the twenty-first century, the majority of the planet’s population became urban as more people lived in city-regions for the first time in our history. As the global population increases, so does this urbanization. The environmental challenges of population and urban growth are profound. Landscapes represent a synthesis of natural and cultural processes. Cities are certainly cultural phenomena. Historically, cities provided refuge from nature. The expanding field of urban ecology, coupled with landscape ecology, can enhance how the dual natural and cultural dimensions of landscapes in cities are understood. Furthermore, concepts such as ecosystem services and green infrastructure are proving useful for urban landscape planning and design. Examples from Dayton, Ohio; Brooklyn, New York; and Austin, Texas are presented.

  18. 1-km Global Anthropogenic Heat Flux Database for Urban Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Among various factors contributing to warming in cities, anthropogenic heat emission (AHE), defined by heat fluxes arising from human consumption of energy, has the most obvious influence. Despite this, estimation of the AHE distribution is challenging and assumed almost uniform in investigations of the regional atmospheric environment. In this study, we introduce a top-down method for estimating a global distribution of AHE (see attachment), with a high spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds and temporal resolution of 1 hour. Annual average AHE was derived from human metabolic heating and primary energy consumption, which was further divided into three components based on consumer sector: heat loss, heat emissions from industrial-related sectors and heat emissions from commercial, residential and transport sectors (CRT). The first and second components were equally distributed throughout the country and populated areas, respectively. Bulk AHE from the CRT was proportionally distributed using a global population dataset with a nighttime lights adjustment. An empirical function to estimate monthly fluctuations of AHE based on monthly temperatures was derived from various city measurements. Finally, a global AHE database was constructed for the year 2013. Comparisons between our proposed AHE and other existing datasets revealed that a problem of AHE underestimation at central urban areas existing in previous top-down models was significantly mitigated by the nighttime lights adjustment. A strong agreement in the monthly profiles of AHE between our database and other bottom-up datasets further proved the validity of our current methodology. Investigations of AHE in the 29 largest urban agglomerations globally highlighted that the share of heat emissions from CRT sectors to the total AHE at the city level was 40-95%, whereas the share of metabolic heating varied closely depending on the level of economic development in the city. Incorporation of our proposed AHE data

  19. Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

    2016-06-01

    Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

  20. Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, K.P.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Owen, T.W.; Elvidge, C.D.

    2002-01-01

    This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally, stations classified as rural averaged 0.19??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

  2. Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samimi, Parisa; Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh

    2014-01-01

    This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country's level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms.

  3. Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Samimi

    Full Text Available This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country's level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms.

  4. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  5. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  6. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  7. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2017-12-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  8. Can Reverse Innovation Accelerate the Growth of Global Companies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahu Tuğba Karabulut

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explain the importance of reverse innovation for the growth of global companies. According to literature review, reverse innovation affects the growth of global companies both in developing and developed countries. Thus, it is suggested that global companies should open R&D centers in developing countries to conduct researches to tailor new products for their needs. When these products succeed, they can offer them to other developing and developed countries to continue to grow in the long run. They can fill out market niches which represent unmet demands of price sensitive and not wealthy customers in developing countries. It can be concluded that reverse innovation can accelerate the growth of global companies.

  9. WHEN GROWTH IS NO LONGER THE NORM: TEACHING URBAN DESIGN IN A TIME OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Shetty

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few years, there has been increasing interest in cities that are rapidly losing population, so-called shrinking cities. This is becoming a global phenomenon, with shrinking cities found on every continent. The decline has been attributed variously to changing demographics, suburbanization, postsocialist transformation and deindustrialization. We are just beginning to develop approaches to dealing with shrinkage and its consequences – vacancy, abandonment, and limited public and private resources. However, there is currently little faith in the ability of design-related disciplines to deal with shrinking cities. Some authors argue that disciplines such as architecture, urban design and urban planning have always planned for growth and have reached their limits when dealing with shrinking cities (Oswalt, 2006. Still others suggest that restructuring should be seen as an opportunity (Vey, 2007. This paper challenges the first view and responds to the second by suggesting that design education can and must respond to these new realities. It critically examines a collaborative urban design studio that was part of an attempt to transform a part of a shrinking city in the American ‘rustbelt.’ The city, once a flourishing manufacturing center, is now facing steep economic decline along with the decline of the auto industry. It is also home to a university that is beginning efforts to revitalize neighborhoods adjacent to the campus. The studio, which brought together architecture and urban planning students from two different universities to work on a section of the city including the campus area, suggests possibilities for preparing students to work in an environment where economic growth is no longer the norm. The following lessons emerged: 1 In a shrinking city, urban designers may need to focus less on designing the solids and more on meeting the challenges of the voids. 2 In spite of urban design’s historical bias towards

  10. Monitoring of urban growth in the state of Hidalgo using Landsat images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cano Salinas

    2017-03-01

    Given this background, this paper is focused on the generation of geographic information for regional urban planning and the overall aim is to examine urban growth rate during the period 2000-2014 in the state of Hidalgo, Mexico and identify potential areas of expansion from Landsat images. The methodology was based on techniques of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS. The inputs used were six Landsat scenes: three for 2000 year and three for 2014. Image processing was performed on ERDAS Imagine® 9.1 and the spatial analysis of urban coverage statewide on ArcGIS 10.0 by ESRI®. First, the radiometric correction was made and we obtained the urban polygons of the 2000 year through of supervised classification. The 2014 urban layer was digitized manually due to the spectral incompatibility between the bands of the Landsat sensor 5 and 7, and the Landsat sensor 8. Then, we build a road density map and the spatial relationship of the urban centers with the road influence area was evaluated. For the year 2000, 103 urban polygons were mapped, whilst for 2014 were identified ten polygons more with a mapped minimum area of 24 ha. The main results indicated that in the state has increased 72.3 km2 urban area from 2000 to 2014. This represents an average growth rate of 1.8% per year. The most widespread municipalities are located in the region of Valle del Mezquital, however, Mineral de la Reforma, Tetepango, Tizayuca and Pachuca showed growth rates of 183.44%, 102% 94% and 68.5% in fourteen years, respectively. According to the road map density, these municipalities are located in areas of greatest influence of infrastructure as the Arco Norte highway in the state. The above findings, lead us to conclude that the Mezquital Valley and the Basin of Mexico are potential areas of urban spreading and it is associated with road development in the Central Mexico.

  11. Research on countermeasures to global environment change in the field of urban planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawanaka, Takashi [Building Research Inst., Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    There are a lot of research themes in the field of urban planning and related fields as mitigation of global environment change. Main theme is reduction method of CO{sub 2} gas emission as a countermeasure against global warming. Some groups research on estimation of CO{sub 2} emission caused by construction activities both in building engineering and civil engineering and also on evaluation of countermeasures. They investigate reduction of CO{sub 2} emission by fossil fuel combustion and by building materials (cement, steel and so on) production process. But we cannot use data fitted to a spatial scale of urban planning. Many researches are focused on nation wide analysis. We, BRI, make a study of {open_quotes}Research on CO{sub 2} Emission in Urban Development and the Control Technologies{close_quotes} as will be seen later at 2. (2). There are two ways of research to reduce CO{sub 2} emission caused by daily activities to urban planning field. One is research on positive utilizing of natural environment in urban areas without depending to energy consuming artificial facilities. There is a research on mitigation of heat island phenomenon for instance. The other ways are research on improvement of energy consumption effect and on reusing of wasted energy In energy consuming type urban space for instance. There s a research on promoting District Heating and Cooling (DHC) and cogeneration.

  12. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    OpenAIRE

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. ...

  13. Monitoring urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Kofie, Richard; Yankson, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra is occur......The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra...

  14. Observations of urban and suburban environments with global satellite scatterometer data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Balk, D.; Rodriguez, E.; Neumann, G.; Sorichetta, A.; Small, C.; Elvidge, C. D.

    A global and consistent characterization of land use and land change in urban and suburban environments is crucial for many fundamental social and natural science studies and applications. Presented here is a dense sampling method (DSM) that uses satellite scatterometer data to delineate urban and intraurban areas at a posting scale of about 1 km. DSM results are analyzed together with information on population and housing censuses, with Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imagery, and with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) night-light data. The analyses include Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix in the United States, Bogotá in Colombia, Dhaka in Bangladesh, Guangzhou in China, and Quito in Ecuador. Results show that scatterometer signatures correspond to buildings and infrastructures in urban and suburban environments. City extents detected by scatterometer data are significantly smaller than city light extents, but not all urban areas are detectable by the current SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT satellite. Core commercial and industrial areas with high buildings and large factories are identified as high-backscatter centers. Data from DSM backscatter and DMSP nighttime lights have a good correlation with population density. However, the correlation relations from the two satellite datasets are different for different cities indicating that they contain complementary information. Together with night-light and census data, DSM and satellite scatterometer data provide new observations to study global urban and suburban environments and their changes. Furthermore, the capability of DSM to identify hydrological channels on the Greenland ice sheet and ecological biomes in central Africa demonstrates that DSM can be used to observe persistent structures in natural environments at a km scale, providing contemporaneous data to study human impacts beyond urban and suburban areas.

  15. On the theory of global population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    2010-01-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

  16. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  17. Globalization, Growth and Poverty

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One-pagers are a publication of IDRC's “Globalization, Growth and Poverty” Program Initiative, ... was among the largest in the world, at 90 percent of the entire value of ... the workforce—including young adults, women, and the elderly who are ... UN ECLAC, 2010. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 90+. C o n.

  18. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  19. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  20. Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

    2014-11-01

    Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern

  1. Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development

  2. The scaling structure of the global road network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2017-10-01

    Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

  3. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

    2017-01-09

    Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Discerning urban spiritualities: Tahrir Square, Occupy Wall Street and the idols of global market capitalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calvyn C. du Toit

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Discernment might be said to be a process of searching for meaning in the light of an (un articulated Absolute. This search takes place in the tension between the private and public spheres of life, mostly mitigated by a community. Intermediate communities, such as churches or social movements, construct symbolic spirituality systems for its adherers to search for meaning in the light of an (unarticulated Absolute. The urban events of Occupy Wall Street and Tahrir Square also step into the tension between the public and private spheres of life, creating a (temporary symbolic spirituality system for its adherers. These events were attempts to construct alternatives to the meta-narrative of global market capitalism. As events attempting to symbolise an urban spirituality, Tahrir Square and Occupy Wall Street dissipated rapidly, effecting rather little change at the heart of global market capitalism. This article theorises a possible reason for these urban spiritualities� dissipation, namely an overlap with global market capitalism�s idols of instant gratification and technology.Interdisciplinary Implications: Viewing Occupy Walls Street and Tahrir Square as symbolic systems of spirituality further strengthens theological urban discourse whilst adding weight to viewing mass movements as spiritualities attempting discernment.

  5. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  6. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  7. The Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Urban Growth Using Remote Sensing and Intelligent Algorithms, Case of Mahabad, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alì Soltani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of urban growth can be considered as a useful way for analyzing the complex process of urban physical evolution. The aim of this study is to model and simulate the complex patterns of land use change by utilizing remote sensing and artificial intelligence techniques in the fast growing city of Mahabad, north-west of Iran which encountered with several environmental subsequences. The key subject is how to allocate optimized weight into effective parameters upon urban growth and subsequently achieving an improved simulation. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN algorithm was used to allocate the weight via an iteration approach. In this way, weight allocation was carried out by the ANN training accomplishing through time-series satellite images representing urban growth process. Cellular Automata (CA was used as the principal motor of the model and then ANN applied to find suitable scale of parameters and relations between potential factors affecting urban growth. The general accuracy of the suggested model and obtained Fuzzy Kappa Coefficient confirms achieving better results than classic CA models in simulating nonlinear urban evolution process.

  8. How Will Global Environmental Changes Affect the Growth of Alien Plants?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jujie Jia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental changes can create novel habitats, promoting the growth of alien plants that often exhibit broad environmental tolerance and high phenotypic plasticity. However, the mechanisms underlying these growth promotory effects are unknown at present. Here, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis using data from 111 published studies encompassing the responses of 129 alien plants to global warming, increased precipitation, N deposition, and CO2 enrichment. We compared the differences in the responses of alien plants to the four global environmental change factors across six categories of functional traits between woody and non-woody life forms as well as C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways. Our results showed that all four global change factors promote alien plant growth. Warming had a more positive effect on C4 than C3 plants. Although the effects of the four factors on the functional traits of alien plants were variable, plant growth was mainly promoted via an increase in growth rate and size. Our data suggest that potential future global environmental changes could further facilitate alien plant growth.

  9. Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luyssaert, S; Schulze, E.D.; Börner, A.

    2008-01-01

    Old- growth forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere(1,2) at rates that vary with climate and nitrogen deposition(3). The sequestered carbon dioxide is stored in live woody tissues and slowly decomposing organic matter in litter and soil(4). Old- growth forests therefore serve as a global

  10. A global fingerprint of macro-scale changes in urban structure from 1999 to 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frolking, Steve; Milliman, Tom; Seto, Karen C; Friedl, Mark A

    2013-01-01

    Urban population now exceeds rural population globally, and 60–80% of global energy consumption by households, businesses, transportation, and industry occurs in urban areas. There is growing evidence that built-up infrastructure contributes to carbon emissions inertia, and that investments in infrastructure today have delayed climate cost in the future. Although the United Nations statistics include data on urban population by country and select urban agglomerations, there are no empirical data on built-up infrastructure for a large sample of cities. Here we present the first study to examine changes in the structure of the world’s largest cities from 1999 to 2009. Combining data from two space-borne sensors—backscatter power (PR) from NASA’s SeaWinds microwave scatterometer, and nighttime lights (NL) from NOAA’s defense meteorological satellite program/operational linescan system (DMSP/OLS)—we report large increases in built-up infrastructure stock worldwide and show that cities are expanding both outward and upward. Our results reveal previously undocumented recent and rapid changes in urban areas worldwide that reflect pronounced shifts in the form and structure of cities. Increases in built-up infrastructure are highest in East Asian cities, with Chinese cities rapidly expanding their material infrastructure stock in both height and extent. In contrast, Indian cities are primarily building out and not increasing in verticality. This new dataset will help characterize the structure and form of cities, and ultimately improve our understanding of how cities affect regional-to-global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. (letter)

  11. Globalization and limit to growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gros, D.

    2009-01-01

    A global financial crisis is not the only concern the world should have. From oil and other commodities new challenges arise, that could be difficult to face properly and could provide another limit to growth. This Malthusian feature of the 21. century emerges clearly if one focuses on climate change. [it

  12. Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

    2017-08-22

    Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

  13. Global changes, national development and urban poverty: Political engagement among the poor in Mexico City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vegelin, C.L.

    2016-01-01

    As the world approaches the point in which urban poverty is to become the primary characteristic of global poverty by 2030, understanding the drivers, contexts, and conditions for urban poverty is increasingly urgent. This dissertation contributes to such needed understandings by carrying out an

  14. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2017-09-01

    Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

  15. Contrasting patterns of urban expansion in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1992 and 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Berríos, Nora L; Parés-Ramos, Isabel K; Aide, T Mitchell

    2013-02-01

    The global urban population is increasing rapidly, but patterns of urban expansion differ greatly among countries. Urban transition theory predicts that the shift from low to high urbanization depends on a country's history and level of economic development. This study describes urban expansion in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1992 and 2009. Urban dynamics were analyzed by combining nighttime lights and census data from 4032 municipalities. High-lit areas (>52-63 pixel values) were correlated with urban populations across municipalities and years (R (2) > 0.90). Analyses showed that between 1992 and 2009 Bolivia and Ecuador had rapid population growth and rapidly increasing high-lit areas, while Peru and Colombia had lower rates of population growth and urbanization (i.e., expansion of high-lit areas). We demonstrate how nighttime lights can be a useful tool, providing a homogeneous platform for multi-scale analyses of urban growth.

  16. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    OpenAIRE

    Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good go...

  17. Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

  18. Global Financial Crisis and the City: Narrative, myth and the urban imaginary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meißner, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation examines how urban imaginaries in international film, literature and photography feature as framings in Global Financial Crisis discourses. Drawing on methods and concepts from media and communication studies, cultural analysis, anthropology, and philosophy, it shows how such

  19. Using Arc GIS to analyse urban growth towards torrent risk areas (Aswan city as a case study)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdy, Omar; Zhao, Shichen; Salheen, Mohamed A; Eid, Y Y

    2014-01-01

    Areas suffering from storm water drains are considered to be the places most at risk, water torrents have an effect on urban areas and can cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, there is dangerous situation whereby urban growth is occuring towards at-risk areas. The urban growth rate in risk areas rose up to 24.9% in 2001, and reached 48.8% in 2013. Urban growth in ''Abouelreesh'' village had been influenced by the construction of larger buildings, because most people were looking forward to live in bigger houses. We can discover the previous problem by observing the average size increase of the buildings' areas from 2001 until 2013, especially in risky areas where the average building's area had grown from 254 m2 in 2001 to 411 m2 in 2013. This Phenomenon is considered to be very important factor which attracts the urban growth towards the risky areas in spite of the danger surrounding them

  20. Overview of urban Growth Simulation: With examples from different cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities....

  1. A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronson, Myla F. J.; La Sorte, Frank A.; Nilon, Charles H.; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A.; Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Warren, Paige S.; Williams, Nicholas S. G.; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; MacGregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pyšek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km2) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education. PMID:24523278

  2. A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronson, Myla F J; La Sorte, Frank A; Nilon, Charles H; Katti, Madhusudan; Goddard, Mark A; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Warren, Paige S; Williams, Nicholas S G; Cilliers, Sarel; Clarkson, Bruce; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Dolan, Rebecca; Hedblom, Marcus; Klotz, Stefan; Kooijmans, Jip Louwe; Kühn, Ingolf; Macgregor-Fors, Ian; McDonnell, Mark; Mörtberg, Ulla; Pysek, Petr; Siebert, Stefan; Sushinsky, Jessica; Werner, Peter; Winter, Marten

    2014-04-07

    Urbanization contributes to the loss of the world's biodiversity and the homogenization of its biota. However, comparative studies of urban biodiversity leading to robust generalities of the status and drivers of biodiversity in cities at the global scale are lacking. Here, we compiled the largest global dataset to date of two diverse taxa in cities: birds (54 cities) and plants (110 cities). We found that the majority of urban bird and plant species are native in the world's cities. Few plants and birds are cosmopolitan, the most common being Columba livia and Poa annua. The density of bird and plant species (the number of species per km(2)) has declined substantially: only 8% of native bird and 25% of native plant species are currently present compared with estimates of non-urban density of species. The current density of species in cities and the loss in density of species was best explained by anthropogenic features (landcover, city age) rather than by non-anthropogenic factors (geography, climate, topography). As urbanization continues to expand, efforts directed towards the conservation of intact vegetation within urban landscapes could support higher concentrations of both bird and plant species. Despite declines in the density of species, cities still retain endemic native species, thus providing opportunities for regional and global biodiversity conservation, restoration and education.

  3. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  4. Globalization, Adjustment and the Challenge of Inclusive Growth ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Globalization, Adjustment and the Challenge of Inclusive Growth (Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam). This project seeks to better understand the challenge of inclusive growth in the context of ... the productivity-business cycle interaction. Dossiers. Industry churning, the labor market and workers' welfare. Dossiers.

  5. OPEN SOURCE APPROACH TO URBAN GROWTH SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrasova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatial patterns of land use change due to urbanization and its impact on the landscape are the subject of ongoing research. Urban growth scenario simulation is a powerful tool for exploring these impacts and empowering planners to make informed decisions. We present FUTURES (FUTure Urban – Regional Environment Simulation – a patch-based, stochastic, multi-level land change modeling framework as a case showing how what was once a closed and inaccessible model benefited from integration with open source GIS.We will describe our motivation for releasing this project as open source and the advantages of integrating it with GRASS GIS, a free, libre and open source GIS and research platform for the geospatial domain. GRASS GIS provides efficient libraries for FUTURES model development as well as standard GIS tools and graphical user interface for model users. Releasing FUTURES as a GRASS GIS add-on simplifies the distribution of FUTURES across all main operating systems and ensures the maintainability of our project in the future. We will describe FUTURES integration into GRASS GIS and demonstrate its usage on a case study in Asheville, North Carolina. The developed dataset and tutorial for this case study enable researchers to experiment with the model, explore its potential or even modify the model for their applications.

  6. Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokar Arsanjani, J.; Helbich, M.; Vaz, E.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid urban growth is becoming a serious problem in most developing countries. Tehran, the capital of Iran, stands out as a vibrant metropolitan area, facing uncontrolled urban expansion. Public authorities and decision makers require planning criteria regarding possible spatial developments. To

  7. The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

    2016-01-01

    Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

    2007-05-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts

  9. The Role of Urban Financial Centers within the Economy of Global Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Mionel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, there is no doubt that state economy refers to city economy. In other words, the most part of a state‘s GDP is given by the urban environment, especially by capitals, which are often the economic engine of this environment. There are also cities having great economic importance abroad, beyond the state and even continental borders. These are the so-called global cities where the financial activities play an important role. There are a few cities (New York, London, Hong Kong etc. centering financial activities which are influential for large geographic areas. This research highlights the importance of the financial sector within urban economy and, subsequently, how it consolidates the status of global city. These cities are the engine of the international financial system as they host the headquarters of the most important and famous international stock exchange markets, financial supervision institutions, law firms and consulting companies.

  10. A Global Navigation Management Architecture Applied to Autonomous Robots in Urban Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Kenmogne , Ide-Flore; Alves De Lima , Danilo; Corrêa Victorino , Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents a global behavioral architecture used as a coordinator for the global navigation of an autonomous vehicle in an urban context including traffic laws and other features. As an extension to our previous work, the approach presented here focuses on how this manager uses perceived information (from low cost cameras and laser scanners) combined with digital road-map data to take decisions. This decision consists in retrieving the car's state regarding th...

  11. Urban growth trends in midsize Chilean cities: the case of Temuco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Marchant Santiago

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Academic production about the main Chilean cities exceeds the existing documentation on intermediate cities, though they have shown interesting trends patterns in recent years which have changed the urban system in Chile. This paper aims to analyze the urban growth processes in Chilean intermediate cities using Temuco as a case study. It begins with an historical look at the city and then mentions that in the last decades this kind of cities have undergone new forms of segregation associated to real estate activities such as private communities, rural residential properties and new localization of services which have resulted in a fragmentation of urban space, a phenomenon reinforced by the consolidation of some satellite cities. At the same time, many urban problems associated to poverty, like a standstill of the regional economy and environmental pollution have appeared, jeopardizing the sustainability of these spaces, questioning current development parameters. The article ends considering the future challenges in Temuco’s urban development.

  12. Filling some black holes: modeling the connection between urbanization, infrastructure, and global service intensity

    OpenAIRE

    Van De Vijver, Elien; Derudder, Ben; Bassens, David; Witlox, Frank

    2014-01-01

    This empirical article combines insights from previous research on the level of knowledge-intensive service in metropolitan areas with the aim to develop an understanding of the spatial structure of the global service economy. We use a stepwise regression model with the Globalization and World Cities research network's measure of globalized service provisioning as the dependent variable and a range of variables focusing on population, infrastructure, urban primacy, and national regulation as ...

  13. An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An allometric scaling based on logistic process can be used to model urban growth. • The traditional allometry is based on exponential growth instead of logistic growth. • The exponential allometry represents a local scaling of urban growth. • The logistic allometry represents a global scaling of urban growth. • The exponential allometry is an approximation relation of the logistic allometry. - Abstract: The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed “exponential allometry”, which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the above mentioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed “logistic allometry”. The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective

  14. Municipal property acquisition patterns in a shrinking city: Evidence for the persistence of an urban growth paradigm in Buffalo, NY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mark Silverman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.

  15. Surveying the Environmental Footprint of Urban Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Birkved, Morten; Fernandez, John

    2017-01-01

    Assessments of urban metabolism (UM) are well situated to identify the scale, components, and direction of urban and energy flows in cities and have been instrumental in benchmarking and monitoring the key levers of urban environmental pressure, such as transport, space conditioning......, and electricity. Hitherto, urban food consumption has garnered scant attention both in UM accounting (typically lumped with “biomass”) and on the urban policy agenda, despite its relevance to local and global environmental pressures. With future growth expected in urban population and wealth, an accounting...... of the environmental footprint from urban food demand (“foodprint”) is necessary. This article reviews 43 UM assessments including 100 cities, and a total of 132 foodprints in terms of mass, carbon footprint, and ecological footprint and situates it relative to other significant environmental drivers (transport...

  16. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  17. Beer from the mountains – Value creation through bridging rural/urban and local/global

    OpenAIRE

    Moschitz, Heidrun; Oehen, Bernadette

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a case study of a farmers’ cooperative, Gran Alpin, selling mountain cereal products to mainly urban consumers. It employs and constantly reproduces values of local and place while marketing to mostly extra-local consumers. High levels of trust are maintained through multiple relations in the local network and decisive for successfully transporting the cooperative’s values from the local to the global, from the rural to the urban.

  18. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Paolo Masucci

    Full Text Available We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  19. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masucci, A Paolo; Stanilov, Kiril; Batty, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  20. TOWARDS CONSISTENT MAPPING OF URBAN STRUCTURES – GLOBAL HUMAN SETTLEMENT LAYER AND LOCAL CLIMATE ZONES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bechtel

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Although more than half of the Earth’s population live in urban areas, we know remarkably little about most cities and what we do know is incomplete (lack of coverage and inconsistent (varying definitions and scale. While there have been considerable advances in the derivation of a global urban mask using satellite information, the complexity of urban structures, the heterogeneity of materials, and the multiplicity of spectral properties have impeded the derivation of universal urban structural types (UST. Further, the variety of UST typologies severely limits the comparability of such studies and although a common and generic description of urban structures is an essential requirement for the universal mapping of urban structures, such a standard scheme is still lacking. More recently, there have been two developments in urban mapping that have the potential for providing a standard approach: the Local Climate Zone (LCZ scheme (used by the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools project and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL methodology by JRC. In this paper the LCZ scheme and the GHSL LABEL product were compared for selected cities. The comparison between both datasets revealed a good agreement at city and coarse scale, while the contingency at pixel scale was limited due to the mismatch in grid resolution and typology. At a 1 km scale, built-up as well as open and compact classes showed very good agreement in terms of correlation coefficient and mean absolute distance, spatial pattern, and radial distribution as a function of distance from town, which indicates that a decomposition relevant for modelling applications could be derived from both. On the other hand, specific problems were found for both datasets, which are discussed along with their general advantages and disadvantages as a standard for UST classification in urban remote sensing.

  1. Human-wildlife interactions in urban areas: a review of conflicts, benefits and opportunities

    OpenAIRE

    Soulsbury, Carl D.; White, Piran C. L.

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife has existed in urban areas since records began. However, the discipline of urban ecology is relatively new and one that is undergoing rapid growth. All wildlife in urban areas will interact with humans to some degree. With rates of urbanisation increasing globally, there is a pressing need to understand the type and nature of human-wildlife interactions within urban environments, to help manage, mitigate or even promote these interactions. Much research attention has focussed on th...

  2. International knowledge mobility and urban development in rapidly globalizing areas: building global hubs for talent in Dubai and Abu Dhabi

    OpenAIRE

    Ewers, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the processes through which the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) cities of Abu Dhabi and Dubai attract and integrate knowledge workers into their labor markets. It focuses on how the UAE has acquired the human capital to create post-oil economies, deploying its oil windfalls into massive urban development strategies in order to create global hubs for talent. More significantly, it analyzes how the UAE’s strategies and frameworks for attracting global knowle...

  3. Housing the "Other" Half: American Studies' Global Urban Turn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Faflik

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available

    Over the course of its short lifetime, the discipline of American studies has utilized a series of self-defining metaphors. With each successive paradigm shift in the field, each of these disciplinary figures, in turn, has been found wanting, and so replaced. American studies’ current, if not consensual, metaphor—the “border”—resembles not a few of its predecessors in that it is spatial in nature and effectively doubles as a figuration of the greater nation. The premise of this paper is that the “border,” like the figures that came before it, has outlived its serviceable purpose for a discipline that continues to evolve.

    This essay proposes the global city, or, more accurately, the global slum, as a post-“border” metaphor peculiarly adapted to the principled transnationalism that now defines American studies for many subscribing students and professionals. On the one hand, the urban has become a prevailing demographic fact in this, the new century. Thus, the multiethnic, multinational world metropolis recommends itself as a more-than-metaphor for the dynamic cultural contact that typifies ascendant hemispheric conceptions of the Americas. On the other hand, the figure of the peripheral city similarly, and spatially, evokes the majority “center” and minority “margin” model of American studies that critics would claim inhibits total global integration among the discipline’s geoculturally diverse practitioners, many of whom reside outside the continental United States. This essay conceptually deploys the world city to explore beyond these professional/territorial “borders.” Its three condensed case studies—first, of Gilded Age Manhattan, second, of the modern Turkish metropolis, and third, of a reunified Germany’s ethnic ghetto—constitute a brisk figurative exercise in “marginal” urban migration, wherein resides an alternate model, and metaphor, of American studies praxis today.

  4. The potential impact of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities 4th Biennial Conference Presented by: Dr Louis Waldeck Date: 10 October 2012 Slide 2 of 17 Why Urban Growth Simulation? ? Reduced carbon footprint ? Reduce resource consumption... of the population concentrated in cities and the opportunities to gain efficiencies, cities are the most important arena for intervention.? Maurice Strong Unabated urbanisation Quest for sustainable development What makes a city sustainable? Slide 3 of 17...

  5. Growing ‘Smart’? Urbanization Processes in the Pune Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Butsch

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Indian city of Pune witnessed rapid growth and deep transformation processes in the last three decades. This paper assesses past developments and recent structures and processes against the concept of urban sustainability. Following an overview of the historical development, the dimensions of sustainability are discussed separately, based on empirical findings. Urban growth puts enormous pressure on Pune’s land and water resources, changing the ecology of the area. The increasing water demand of Pune’s growing population competes with growing energy and water demands. An assessment of future climate change impacts indicates that the storage capacity of the reservoirs is more frequently not met during the rainy season. In addition, extreme dry years can aggravate the effects of land use change on water resources in the future. The city’s growth and especially the large in-migration has also changed Pune’s social fabric significantly. Wealth is distributed unevenly in the city and social disparities can be observed along two fault lines, namely along classes and caste groups. The population development and the increasing socioeconomic polarization are linked to the economic development of the city. Pune’s formal economy has a robust base. However, as in many cities of the Global South, the informal economy is the most relevant source of income for large parts of the population. Pune’s development is challenged by informality, poor infrastructure and inadequate planning and governance. Recently new approaches towards urban renewal and smart city development were launched. These new approaches aim at overcoming blockades in the traditional planning. A special challenge for urban planning is the transformation of urban fringe areas of the city, as this process is currently taking place in an unsustainable manner. The paper concludes that urban development has to become holistic, integrative and participative and should abandon the

  6. Monitoring of urban growth and its related environmental impacts: Niamey case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Tankari Dan-Badjo, Abdourahamane; De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Antonella Dino, Giovanna; Lasagna, Manuela; Spadafora, Francesco; Yadji, Guero; Konaté, Moussa

    2016-04-01

    The present contribution is about a preliminary study of the evolution of Niamey city (Niger) during last decades. Such research is part of an UNICOO project (funded by the University of Turin) and connected to the Edulink Cooperation Project (R.U.S.S.A.D.E.), a multidisciplinary project between Italy, Niger, Burkina Faso and Tchad funded on ACP- EU cooperation program in Higher Education. Recent advances in remote sensing, both in satellite hardware technology (i.e. image availability) and image processing algorithm development, provide opportunities for collection and analysis of multitemporal information on urban form and size that can be useful for policy and planning. In spite of these developments, there are also limitations to remote sensing and its application in practice. Some opportunities for, and limitations on, monitoring urban growth using remote sensing data are shown in the present contribution; moreover examples of environmental impacts of urban growth, as monitored with remote sensing, are provided. Niamey is the capital of Niger and is the first city in the country in size and economic importance. Its population increased gradually, from about 3,000 units in 1930 to about 30,000 in 1960, rising to 250,000 in 1980 and, according to estimates, to 800,000 units in 2000. Its patterns of population distribution, livelihoods, and its dominant role within the national economy of Niger make it a good representative case study for West Africa. This case study will consider the recent historical context of continued urban growth and will assess potential future impacts of settlement patterns. The rapid growth of Niamey in the last decades brought relative prosperity but it certainly affected patterns of land use within the city and the emerging urban system. After a preliminary sketch of the georesources in the city (qualitative and quantitative characterization of the surface water and groundwater, and of aggregates), an analyses of the urban growth and

  7. A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in china

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congjun Cheng

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper is going to analyze that there are dynamic quantitative relationships between Chinese urbanization and service industry.Design/methodology/approach: According to the index number of value-added of service industry and town population/ total population ratio during the year of 1978 to 2012 in China, the paper is designed with models which are analyzed by ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, finally get the conclusion.Findings: The paper achieves the two conclusions, one is that urbanization is the important power of service industry’s growth; the other is that the level of urbanization improves the level of service industry recently.Originality/value: Chinese urbanization and service industry have close relationship, and they also have dynamic changes. The paper studies their dynamic changes through collecting a lot of data from the year 1978 to 2010 and developing models to make quantitative analysis, for example, tables and quotations in the paper are the best proof. At last, the paper also puts forward some suggestions after get the conclusion that Chinese urbanization is the motive power to the growth of service industry.

  8. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  9. Analysis, Assessment and Modeling of The Urban Growth in Greater Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, Using Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Awadhi, T.

    2008-01-01

    Muscat Governorate is the main governorate in the Sultanate of Oman and at the same time, it is the capital of the country. The urban of Muscat expanded on the area rapidly. So, the process of the growth, the controlling factors and the side problems which become apparent need to be highlighted. In order to determine the urban growth between 1960 and 2003, multi data sources and techniques have been used under a GIS environment. This research aims to measure and to model the urban expansion of Muscat Governorate using the combined technologies of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). Based on the detailed datasets and knowledge of historical land use maps attempts were made to simulate future growth patterns of the city. The outcome of this exercise was the design of six urban growth maps covering the years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2003. The results show that the total urban expansion reached more than 650% between 1960 and 2003, with an annual growth rate of approximately 20%. A combination of human and physical factors controlled this rapid growth. The paper discusses also the current urban problems resulting from this rapid growth as well as its future spatial trends

  10. Policies for managing urban growth and landscape change: a key to conservation in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., tech. ed. Bengston

    2005-01-01

    Protecting natural areas in the face of urbanization is one of the most important challenges for conservation in the 21st century. The papers in this collection examine key issues related to growth management and selected approaches to managing urban growth and minimizing its social and environmental costs. They were presented at the 2004 annual meeting of the Society...

  11. Population, migration and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities

  12. Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

  13. Hourly Water Quality Dynamics in Rivers Downstream of Urban Areas: Quantifying Seasonal Variation and Modelling Impacts of Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Miller, J. D.; Hitt, O.; Bowes, M.

    2016-12-01

    Continuous monitoring of water flows and quality is invaluable in improving understanding of the influence of urban areas on river health. When used to inform predictive modelling, insights can be gained as to how urban growth may affect the chemical and biological quality of rivers as they flow downstream into larger waterbodies. Water flow and quality monitoring in two urbanising sub-catchments (long term flow records are available, but particular focus is given to monitoring of an extended set of sites during prolonged winter rainfall. In the Ray sub-catchment streams were monitored in which urban cover varied across a range of 7-78%. A rural-urban gradient in DO was apparent in the low flow period prior to the storms. Transient low DO (works (STW). In this respect temperature- and respiration-driven DO sags in summer were at least if not more severe than those driven by the winter storms. Likewise, although winter storm NH4 concentrations violated EU legislation downstream of the STW, they were lower than summer concentrations in pollutant flushes following dry spells. In contrast the predominant phenomenon affecting water quality in the Cut during the storms was dilution. Here, a river water quality model was calibrated and applied over the course of a year to capture the importance of periphyton photosynthesis and respiration cycles in determining water quality and to predict the influence of hypothetical urban growth on downstream river health. The periods monitored intensively, dry spells followed by prolonged rainfall, represent: (i) marked changes in conditions likely to become more prevalent in future, (ii) situations under which water quality in urban areas is likely to be particularly vulnerable, being influenced for example by first flush effects followed by capacity exceedance at STW. Despite this, whilst being somewhat long lasting in places, impacts on DO were not severe.

  14. Assessing the Impacts of Chinese Sustainable Ground Transportation on the Dynamics of Urban Growth: A Case Study of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Zheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Although China has promoted the construction of Chinese Sustainable Ground Transportation (CSGT to guide sustainable development, it may create substantial challenges, such as rapid urban growth and land limitations. This research assessed the effects of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge on impervious surface growth in Cixi County, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China. Changes in impervious surfaces were mapped based on Landsat images from 1995, 2002, and 2009 using a combination of multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA and landscape metrics. The results indicated that the area and density of impervious surfaces increased significantly during construction of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge (2002–2009. Additionally, the bridge and connected road networks promoted urban development along major roads, resulting in compact growth patterns of impervious surfaces in urbanized regions. Moreover, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge promoted the expansion and densification of impervious surfaces in Hangzhou Bay District, which surrounds the bridge. The bridge also accelerated socioeconomic growth in the area, promoting rapid urban growth in Cixi County between 2002 and 2009. Overall, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge is an important driver of urban growth in Cixi County, and policy suggestions for sustainable urban growth should be adopted in the future.

  15. Remote sensing of impervious surface growth: A framework for quantifying urban expansion and re-densification mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahtahmassebi, Amir Reza; Song, Jie; Zheng, Qing; Blackburn, George Alan; Wang, Ke; Huang, Ling Yan; Pan, Yi; Moore, Nathan; Shahtahmassebi, Golnaz; Sadrabadi Haghighi, Reza; Deng, Jing Song

    2016-04-01

    A substantial body of literature has accumulated on the topic of using remotely sensed data to map impervious surfaces which are widely recognized as an important indicator of urbanization. However, the remote sensing of impervious surface growth has not been successfully addressed. This study proposes a new framework for deriving and summarizing urban expansion and re-densification using time series of impervious surface fractions (ISFs) derived from remotely sensed imagery. This approach integrates multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), analysis of regression residuals, spatial statistics (Getis_Ord) and urban growth theories; hence, the framework is abbreviated as MRGU. The performance of MRGU was compared with commonly used change detection techniques in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the approach. The results suggested that the ISF regression residuals were optimal for detecting impervious surface changes while Getis_Ord was effective for mapping hotspot regions in the regression residuals image. Moreover, the MRGU outputs agreed with the mechanisms proposed in several existing urban growth theories, but importantly the outputs enable the refinement of such models by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of both expansion and re-densification mechanisms. Based on Landsat data, the MRGU is somewhat restricted in its ability to measure re-densification in the urban core but this may be improved through the use of higher spatial resolution satellite imagery. The paper ends with an assessment of the present gaps in remote sensing of impervious surface growth and suggests some solutions. The application of impervious surface fractions in urban change detection is a stimulating new research idea which is driving future research with new models and algorithms.

  16. Urban partnerships in low-carbon development: Opportunities and challenges of an emerging trend in global climate politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Beermann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the linkages between two recent trends in global climate governance. The first trend is the growing focus on cities in the multi-level governance of climate change. Whereas international climate change negotiations often end in deadlock, many urban centers across the world are taking the lead. Industrialized cities from the Global North and increasingly cities from the emerging Southern economies are experimenting with innovative and ambitious programs to reduce their local carbon footprints. A second trend is the expan¬ding urban North-South cooperation in the area of low-carbon development. This cooperation takes various forms, such as city twinning, transnational municipal networks and trans-local development cooperation. A key target of these initiatives is to develop joint projects and exchange knowledge to foster low-carbon development pathways. This study analyzes the conditions of success and failure in selected Indo-German urban low-carbon partnerships with a particular focus on institutional arrangements. The paper presents evidence from three initiatives and argues that successful trans-local cooperation depends largely on the interplay between institutional forms and the development of social capital. Building on these findings, the paper discusses what lessons may be drawn from the emergence of urban North-South cooperation for the future development of global climate governance.

  17. An analysis of the consequences of the phenomenon of urbanization, and pollution of the cities, using economic evaluation models

    OpenAIRE

    Abouzar Fathi; Ali Fathi; Mansour Parvin; Noushin Dolatyari

    2014-01-01

    Increasing concerns about global warming and climate change in recent is more serious. Weather problems, along with the accumulation of dirt on the economy and other aspects of human life, they affect. Urban growth and urbanization, the most striking feature of social change - the economy, has been in the last two centuries. Presently the growth of cities, especially in developing countries under led to urbanization, coupled with the loss of environmental and human ecology is. In this period,...

  18. The impact of globalization on the industrial growth of developing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an attempt to investigate the impact of globalization on the industrial growth of developing economies with special reference to Nigeria. Globalization has facilitated the increased flow of ideas; people, goods and services across national frontiers. Some developing countries as a result of globalization have ...

  19. The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

    2014-12-01

    Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

  20. How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?

    OpenAIRE

    Ghani, Ejaz; Anand, Rahul

    2009-01-01

    The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization--trade, capital, and economic management--may not be the same in the future. Changes ...

  1. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region with reference studies from Europe and the USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  2. Solar Panels reduce both global warming and Urban Heat Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valéry eMasson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The production of solar energy in cities is clearly a way to diminish our dependency to fossil fuels, and is a good way to mitigate global warming by lowering the emission of greenhouse gases. However, what are the impacts of solar panels locally ? To evaluate their influence on urban weather, it is necessary to parameterize their effects within the surface schemes that are coupled to atmospheric models. The present paper presents a way to implement solar panels in the Town Energy Balance scheme, taking account of the energy production (for thermal and photovoltaic panels, the impact on the building below and feedback towards the urban micro-climate through radiative and convective fluxes. A scenario of large but realistic deployment of solar panels on the Paris metropolitan area is then simulated. It is shown that solar panels, by shading the roofs, slightly increases the need for domestic heating (3%. In summer however, the solar panels reduce the energy needed for air-conditioning (by 12% and also the Urban Heat Island (UHI: 0.2K by day and up to 0.3K at night. These impacts are larger than those found in previous works, because of the use of thermal panels (that are more efficient than photovoltaic panels and the geographical position of Paris, which is relatively far from the sea. This means that it is not influenced by sea breezes, and hence that its UHI is stronger than for a coastal city of the same size. But this also means that local adaptation strategies aiming to decrease the UHI will have more potent effects. In summary, the deployment of solar panels is good both globally, to produce renewable energy (and hence to limit the warming of the climate and locally, to decrease the UHI, especially in summer, when it can constitute a health threat.

  3. Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio I. Aguayo

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available City growth and changes in land-use patterns cause various important social and environmental impacts. To understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes, the factors that drive urban development must be identified and analyzed, especially those factors that can be used to predict future changes and their potential environmental effects. Our objectives were to quantify the relationship between urban growth and its driving forces and to predict the spatial growth pattern based on historical land-use changes for the city of Los Ángeles in central Chile. This involved the analysis of images from 1978, 1992, and 1998 and characterization of the spatial pattern of land-use change; the construction of digital coverage in GIS; the selection of predictive variables through univariate analysis; the construction of logistic regression models using growth vs. nongrowth for 1978-1992 as the dependent variable; and the prediction of the probability of land-use change by applying the regression model to the 1992-1998 period. To investigate the influence of spatial scale, we constructed several sets of models that contained (1 only distance variables, e.g., distance to highways; (2 only scale-dependent density variables, e.g., density of urban area within a 600-m radius; (3 both distance and density variables; and (4 both distance and density variables at several spatial scales. The environmental variables were included in all models. The combination of distance and density variables at several scales is required to appropriately capture the multiscale urban growth process. The best models correctly predict ~90% of the observed land-use changes for 1992-1998. The distance to access roads, densities of the urban road system and urbanized area at various scales, and soil type were the strongest predictors of the growth pattern. Other variables were less important or not significant in explaining the urban growth process. Our approach, which

  4. The role of “network of cities” in construction of global urban culture

    OpenAIRE

    Baycan-Levent, Tüzin; Kundak, Seda; Gülümser, Aliye Ahu

    2004-01-01

    The globalization process has led to an increased interaction between cities and to a new urban system/network in which they need to be competitive and complementary at the same time. “Network of cities”, such as World Cities, Eurocities or Sister Cities are among the well known examples of interaction and cooperation of the cities at the regional and global level. The cities of different regions and countries tend to share their experiences and their cultures within these networks in order t...

  5. Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, G.; Crane, M.

    2005-01-01

    Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

  6. The World Meteorological Organization Focus on Urban Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terblanche, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Many of the milestones of human development can be traced back to people assembled in urban settings where economies of scale, competition and social interaction stimulated innovation. Considering that more than half the global pollution now lives in cities and towns and that most of the growth in the global pollution in the remainder of this century will continue to take place in the urban environment, the question could be asked whether humankind will continue to capitalize on the traditional benefits of city life to find solutions for growing environmental challenges? In the past cities developed organically. They evolved through trial and error into livable environments. Things have now changed. The global population is larger, urbanization is rapid, pressure on Earth's limited resources is constraining and we are faced with a changing climate. If cities are now allowed to develop in a haphazard manner, the fight for survival in the city will overshadow its entrepreneurial spirit. It is for this reason that the 11th Sustainable Development Goal will focus on: 'Making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable'. There is now a window of opportunity for weather, climate, water and environmental scientists to contribute towards a more sustainable urban future by ensuring that science based services form an integrated part of urban planning, development and management. WMO recognizes that rapid urbanization will require new types of new and enhanced services. Such integrated urban weather, environment and climate services will assist cities to deal better with hazards such as storm surge, flooding, heat waves, and air pollution episodes, especially in a changing climate. From a research perspective the World Climate Research Programme, the World Weather Research Programme and the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme all have a unique contribution to make in this regard.

  7. THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL BOGDAN ZAMFIR

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose to emphasize the structural changes involved by globalization process who generate a semnificative influence on the economic growth in Romania. Thus, on this background it is important to point out that even though the phenomenon of globalization represents manny opportunities for Romanian economic growth, nevertheles, our country must regard at the same time all the systemic risks that are involved in this process. From this perspective, an important role has the activity of romanian small and medium sized enterprises that through its specific creates jobs and contributes substantially to growth in Romania. In terms of risks, for our country is necessary to develop effective mechanisms of self-defense against involved economic dangers. Also, should not be ignored that the quality of European Union member offers for Romania a strong base and in the same time the chance to benefit from the positive effects of the single market and the opportunities offered by the global market. In this framework, Romanian economy is not exempted from stiff competition in the field of trade in goods and services from countries like China or India who succeed through competition, to "break down trade barriers" of economic blocs. More than that, Romanian high tech industry can take advantage for themselves from the positive effects of globalization process by penetrating on third country markets.

  8. Estimating changes in urban land and urban population using refined areal interpolation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoraghein, Hamidreza; Leyk, Stefan

    2018-05-01

    The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead, it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

  9. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other

  10. Global economic growth and expected returns around the world: The end-of-the-year effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...

  11. Particle formation and growth at five rural and urban sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, C.-H.; Evans, G. J.; McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Zeromskiene, K.; Mozurkewich, M.; Li, S.-M.; Leaitch, W. R.

    2010-08-01

    Ultrafine particle (UFP) number and size distributions were simultaneously measured at five urban and rural sites during the summer of 2007 in Ontario, Canada as part of the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007). Particle formation and growth events at these five sites were classified based on their strength and persistence as well as the variation in geometric mean diameter. Regional nucleation and growth events and local short-lived strong nucleation events were frequently observed at the near-border rural sites, upwind of industrial sources. Surprisingly, the particle number concentrations at one of these sites were higher than the concentrations at a downtown site in a major city, despite its high traffic density. Regional nucleation and growth events were favored during intense solar irradiance and in less polluted cooler drier air. The most distinctive regional particle nucleation and growth event during the campaign was observed simultaneously at all five sites, which were up to 350 km apart. Although the ultrafine particle concentrations and size distributions generally were spatially heterogeneous across the region, a more uniform spatial distribution of UFP across the five areas was observed during this regional nucleation event. Thus, nucleation events can cover large regions, contributing to the burden of UFP in cities and potentially to the associated health impacts on urban populations. Local short-lived nucleation events at the three near-border sites during this summer three-week campaign were associated with high SO2, which likely originated from US and Canadian industrial sources. Hence, particle formation in southwestern Ontario appears to often be related to anthropogenic gaseous emissions but biogenic emissions at times also contribute. Longer-term studies are needed to help resolve the relative contributions of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions to nucleation and growth in this region.

  12. Global Learning Spectral Archive- A new Way to deal with Unknown Urban Spectra -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jilge, M.; Heiden, U.; Habermeyer, M.; Jürgens, C.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urbanization processes and the need of identifying urban materials demand urban planners and the remote sensing community since years. Urban planners cannot overcome the issue of up-to-date information of urban materials due to time-intensive fieldwork. Hyperspectral remote sensing can facilitate this issue by interpreting spectral signals to provide information of occurring materials. However, the complexity of urban areas and the occurrence of diverse urban materials vary due to regional and cultural aspects as well as the size of a city, which makes identification of surface materials a challenging analysis task. For the various surface material identification approaches, spectral libraries containing pure material spectra are commonly used, which are derived from field, laboratory or the hyperspectral image itself. One of the requirements for successful image analysis is that all spectrally different surface materials are represented by the library. Currently, a universal library, applicable in every urban area worldwide and taking each spectral variability into account, is and will not be existent. In this study, the issue of unknown surface material spectra and the demand of an urban site-specific spectral library is tackled by the development of a learning spectral archive tool. Starting with an incomplete library of labelled image spectra from several German cities, surface materials of pure image pixels will be identified in a hyperspectral image based on a similarity measure (e.g. SID-SAM). Additionally, unknown image spectra of urban objects are identified based on an object- and spectral-based-rule set. The detected unknown surface material spectra are entered with additional metadata, such as regional occurrence into the existing spectral library and thus, are reusable for further studies. Our approach is suitable for pure surface material detection of urban hyperspectral images that is globally applicable by taking incompleteness into account

  13. Analyzing Land Cover Change and Urban Growth Trajectories of the Mega-Urban Region of Dhaka Using Remotely Sensed Data and an Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehedy Hassan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate information on, and human interpretation of, urban land cover using satellite-derived sensor imagery is critical given the intricate nature and niches of socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors occurring at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Detailed knowledge of urban land and their changing pattern over time periods associated with ecological risk is, however, required for the best use of critical land and its environmental resources. Interest in this topic has increased recently, driven by a surge in the use of open-source computing software, satellite-derived imagery, and improved classification algorithms. Using the machine learning algorithm Random Forest, combined with multi-date Landsat imagery, we classified eight periods of land cover maps with up-to-date spatial and temporal information of urban land between the period of 1972 and 2015 for the mega-urban region of greater Dhaka in Bangladesh. Random Forest—a non-parametric ensemble classifier—has shown a quantum increase in satellite-derived image classification accuracy due to its outperformance over traditional approaches, e.g., Maximum Likelihood. Employing Random Forest as an image classification approach for this study with independent cross-validation techniques, we obtained high classification accuracy, user and producer accuracy. Our overall classification accuracy ranges were between 85% and 97% with kappa values between 0.81 and 0.94. The area statistics derived from the thematic land cover map show that the built-up area in the 43-year study period expanded quickly, from 35 km2 in 1972 to 378 km2 in 2015, with a net increase rate of approximately 980% and an average annual growth rate of 6%. This growth rate, however, was higher in peripheral areas, with a 2903% increase and an annual expansion rate of 8%, compared to a 460% increase with an annual growth rate of 4% in the core city area (Dhaka City Corporation. This huge urban expansion took

  14. Urban economies, urban livelihoods and natural resource-based economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the constraints of a liberalized world economy

    OpenAIRE

    Potts, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    There is much speculation today about how rapid economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is transforming development prospects in the region. However, in terms of a broad, multi-dimensional, understanding of the term ‘development’, into which social justice must be factored, there are real concerns about whether the undoubted improvements in GDP growth in many countries are strongly connected to urban-located investment and job growth. Many African countries remain poorly placed, in terms of glo...

  15. A study on the relationship between carbon budget and ecosystem service in urban areas according to urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. J.; Lee, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    The study on the analysis of carbon storage capacity of urban green spaces with increasing urban forest. Modern cities have experienced rapid economic development since Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. The rapid economic growth caused an exponential concentration of population to the cities and decrease of green spaces due to the conversion of forest and agricultural lands to build-up areas with rapid urbanization. As green areas including forests, grasslands, and wetlands provide diverse economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, the decrease of green areas might be a huge loss. Also, the process of urbanization caused pressure on the urban environment more than its natural capacity, which accelerates global climate change. This study tries to see the relations between carbon budget and ecosystem services according to the urbanization. For calculating carbon dynamics, this study used VISIT(Vegetation Integrated Simulator for trace gases) model. And the value that ecosystem provides is explained with the concept of ecosystem service and calculated by InVEST model. Study sites are urban and peri-urban areas in Northeast Asia. From the result of the study, the effect of the urbanization can be understood in regard to carbon storage and ecosystem services.

  16. More than 500 million Chinese urban residents (14% of the global urban population) are imperiled by fine particulate hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Han, Lijian; Zhang, Robin Q

    2016-11-01

    China's urbanization and the subsequent public vulnerability to degenerated environment is important to global public health. Among the environmental problems, fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) pollution has become a serious hazard in rapidly urbanizing China. However, quantitative information remains inadequate. We thus collected PM 2.5 concentrations and population census records, to illustrate the spatial patterns and changes in the PM 2.5 hazard levels in China, and to quantify public vulnerability to the hazard during 2000-2010, following the air quality standards of World Health Organization. We found that 28% (2.72 million km 2 ) of China's territory, including 78% of cities (154 cities) with a population of >1 million, was exposed to PM 2.5 hazard in 2010; a 15% increase (1.47 million km 2 ) from 2000 to 2010. The hazards potentially impacted the health of 72% of the total population (942 million) in 2010, including 70% of the young (206 million) and 76% of the old (71 million). This was a significant increase from the 42% of total the population (279 million) exposed in 2000. Of the total urban residents, 76% (501 million) were affected in 2010. Along with PM 2.5 concentration increase, massive number of rural to urban migration also contributed greatly to China's urban public health vulnerability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. [Puebla: the contradictions of growth and urban planning in the nineties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, S; Rojas Bonilla, J L; Vazquez Lopez, J

    1991-12-01

    A series of questions and observations are presented relating to urban problems resulting from demographic growth and economic development in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Although the date used are primarily for the city of Puebla, the metropolitan conurbation in its totality should be the true focus of study. The major problems in the city of Puebla result from the inability of market forces to satisfy growing needs for employment, housing, and transport, and from limitations on the ability of the municipal administration to provide and improve the public services demanded by the population. If the metropolitan area is not viewed as a whole, there is a great risk that uncontrolled growth will continue while problems in the conurbation will be underestimated. Puebla's most rapid period of growth occurred in the 1960s, when significant development took place in manufacturing. An inventory of proposed solutions to problems of urban development and social welfare in Puebla was conducted using data from the Development Plan of the state of Puebla for 1987-93 and reports of the state government and of municipal government programs for 1987-1990 and 1990-1993. The various plans mention 281 separate proposals, 218 actions, and 16 strategies. Severe financial limitations and technical and conceptual shortcomings however will probably prevent many from being implemented. Among the persisting problems in Puebla that have been recognized but are likely to worsen are the 38% deficit of drinking water and 30% loss through leakage and waste; the lack of water treatment and inadequate capacity of the sewage system and the failure to operate 7 existing water treatment plants because of the high cost; the lack of solid waste disposal facilities and existence of only 1 landfill that receives only 32% of the 1450 tons of solid waste produced daily; the lack of paved roads and failure to maintain existing roads, and poor planning and inadequacy of public transportation routes. The

  18. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; Smith, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Launois, T.; Belviso, S.; Bopp, L.; Laine, M.

    2017-04-05

    Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a feedback for climate change, but there is still strong disagreement on the extent to which biogeochemical processes may suppress this GPP growth at the ecosystem to continental scales. The consequent uncertainty in modeling of future carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere constitutes one of the largest unknowns in global climate projections for the next century. Here we provide a global, measurement-based estimate of historical GPP growth using long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that relates changes in the COS concentration to changes in its sources and sinks, the largest of which is proportional to GPP. The COS history was most consistent with simulations that assume a large historical GPP growth. Carbon-climate models that assume little to no GPP growth predicted trajectories of COS concentration over the anthropogenic era that differ from those observed. Continued COS monitoring may be useful for detecting ongoing changes in GPP while extending the ice core record to glacial cycles could provide further opportunities to evaluate earth system models.

  19. Particle growth in an isoprene-rich forest: Influences of urban, wildfire, and biogenic air masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunsch, Matthew J.; Schmidt, Stephanie A.; Gardner, Daniel J.; Bondy, Amy L.; May, Nathaniel W.; Bertman, Steven B.; Pratt, Kerri A.; Ault, Andrew P.

    2018-04-01

    Growth of freshly nucleated particles is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and has been studied within a variety of environments around the world. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the sources of the precursor gases leading to particle growth, particularly in isoprene-rich forests. In this study, particle growth events were observed from the 14 total events (31% of days) during summer measurements (June 24 - August 2, 2014) at the Program for Research on Oxidants PHotochemistry, Emissions, and Transport (PROPHET) tower within the forested University of Michigan Biological Station located in northern Michigan. Growth events were observed within long-range transported air masses from urban areas, air masses impacted by wildfires, as well as stagnant, forested/regional air masses. Growth events observed during urban-influenced air masses were prevalent, with presumably high oxidant levels, and began midday during periods of high solar radiation. This suggests that increased oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) likely contributed to the highest observed particle growth in this study (8 ± 2 nm h-1). Growth events during wildfire-influenced air masses were observed primarily at night and had slower growth rates (3 ± 1 nm h-1). These events were likely influenced by increased SO2, O3, and NO2 transported within the smoke plumes, suggesting a role of NO3 oxidation in the production of semi-volatile compounds. Forested/regional air mass growth events likely occurred due to the oxidation of regionally emitted BVOCs, including isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which facilitated multiday growth events also with slower rates (3 ± 2 nm h-1). Intense sulfur, carbon, and oxygen signals in individual particles down to 20 nm, analyzed by transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDX), suggest that H2SO4 and secondary organic aerosol contributed to particle growth. Overall, aerosol

  20. Comparative study of the growth and carbon sequestration potential of Bermuda grass in industrial and urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman Ali

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global phenomenon occurring throughout the world. Greenhouse gases (GHGs especially carbon dioxide (CO2 considered to be the major culprit to bring these changes. So, carbon (C sequestration by any mean could be useful to reduce the CO2 level in atmosphere. Turf grasses have the ability to sequester C and minimize the effects of GHGs on the environment. In order to study that how turf grasses can help in C sequestration, Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon was grown both at industrial and urban location and its effect on C storage were assessed by soil and plant analysis. Dry deposition of ammonium and nitrate was maximum at both locations through the year. However wet deposition was highest during the months of high rainfall. It was examined through soil analysis that soil organic matter, soil C and nitrogen in both locations increased after second mowing of grass. However, soil pH 6.68 in urban and 7.00 in industrial area and EC 1.86 dS/m in urban and 1.90 dS/m in industrial area decreased as the grass growth continue. Soil fresh weight (27.6 g in urban and (27.28 g industrial area also decreased after first and second mowing of grass. The C levels in plant dry biomass also increased which showed improved ability of plant to uptake C from the soil and store it. Similarly, chlorophyll contents were more in industrial area compared to urban area indicates the positive impact of high C concentration. Whereas stomatal conductance was reduced in high C environment to slow down respiration process. Hence, from present study it can be concluded that the Bermuda grass could be grown in areas with high C concentration in atmosphere for sequestrating C in soil.

  1. Does Urban Form Affect Urban NO2? Satellite-Based Evidence for More than 1200 Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechle, Matthew J; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

    2017-11-07

    Modifying urban form may be a strategy to mitigate urban air pollution. For example, evidence suggests that urban form can affect motor vehicle usage, a major contributor to urban air pollution. We use satellite-based measurements of urban form and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) to explore relationships between urban form and air pollution for a global data  set of 1274 cities. Three of the urban form metrics studied (contiguity, circularity, and vegetation) have a statistically significant relationship with urban NO 2 ; their combined effect could be substantial. As illustration, if findings presented here are causal, that would suggest that if Christchurch, New Zealand (a city at the 75th percentile for all three urban-form metrics, and with a network of buses, trams, and bicycle facilities) was transformed to match the urban form of Indio - Cathedral City, California, United States (a city at the 25th percentile for those same metrics, and exhibiting sprawl-like suburban development), our models suggest that Christchurch's NO 2 concentrations would be ∼60% higher than its current level. We also find that the combined effect of urban form on NO 2 is larger for small cities (β × IQR = -0.46 for cities urban population and are where much of the future urban growth is expected to occur. This work highlights the need for future study of how changes in urban form and related land use and transportation policies impact urban air pollution, especially for small cities.

  2. Land Cover Mapping Analysis and Urban Growth Modelling Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Greater Cairo Region—Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmine Megahed

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR, one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC maps (1984, 2003 and 2014 were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM. Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.

  3. CA-Markov Analysis of Constrained Coastal Urban Growth Modeling: Hua Hin Seaside City, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra Shrestha

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand, a developing country in Southeast Asia, is experiencing rapid development, particularly urban growth as a response to the expansion of the tourism industry. Hua Hin city provides an excellent example of an area where urbanization has flourished due to tourism. This study focuses on how the dynamic urban horizontal expansion of the seaside city of Hua Hin is constrained by the coast, thus making sustainability for this popular tourist destination—managing and planning for its local inhabitants, its visitors, and its sites—an issue. The study examines the association of land use type and land use change by integrating Geo-Information technology, a statistic model, and CA-Markov analysis for sustainable land use planning. The study identifies that the land use types and land use changes from the year 1999 to 2008 have changed as a result of increased mobility; this trend, in turn, has everything to do with urban horizontal expansion. The changing sequences of land use type have developed from forest area to agriculture, from agriculture to grassland, then to bare land and built-up areas. Coastal urban growth has, for a decade, been expanding horizontally from a downtown center along the beach to the western area around the golf course, the southern area along the beach, the southwest grassland area, and then the northern area near the airport.

  4. Urban Cultural Heritage Endangerment: Degradation of historico-cultural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Eric; Cabral, Pedro; Caetano, Mário; Painho, Marco; Nijkamp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    land-use. This brings forth a dichotomy between areas to cope with population increase (and therefore highly probable of urbanization) and regions of valuable historico-cultural and archaeological legacy. To bridge this dichotomy, this paper attempts to provide a methodology for measuring cultural heritage endangerment brought by urban pressure. By using spatial modeling to prompt urban growth combined with archaeological predictive models, composing a secondary layer, a propensity map for areas with extremely high cultural value and where urban growth should be dealt with especial care become evident. Fundamentally, the joined model of Cultural Heritage Endangerment, tackles a recent and unprecedented problem at global level: Committing urban planning to allow the conservation of cultural and archaeological legacy for future generation. In an attempt to abridge the consequences of the decadence of historico-cultural landscapes, the historico-cultural endangerment (HCE) method will be applied to two entirely different regions in the world. On one side, the methodology will be applied on a regional emphasis in the Algarve region in Portugal, addressing the input of maintaining the integrity of archaeological landscapes, and on the other, a local micro-simulation of the Giza Pyramids in Egypt, shall allow to envision a segment of local consequences of urban pressure on irreplaceable monuments. The conclusions of both study-cases abridge the global nature of this problem as well as the importance of HCE implementation at different scales.

  5. How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena

    2016-02-01

    Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.

  6. Global perspectives on the urban stream syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Allison; Booth, Derek B.; Capps, Krista A.; Smith, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Urban streams commonly express degraded physical, chemical, and biological conditions that have been collectively termed the “urban stream syndrome”. The description of the syndrome highlights the broad similarities among these streams relative to their less-impaired counterparts. Awareness of these commonalities has fostered rapid improvements in the management of urban stormwater for the protection of downstream watercourses, but the focus on the similarities among urban streams has obscured meaningful differences among them. Key drivers of stream responses to urbanization can vary greatly among climatological and physiographic regions of the globe, and the differences can be manifested in individual stream channels even through the homogenizing veneer of urban development. We provide examples of differences in natural hydrologic and geologic settings (within similar regions) that can result in different mechanisms of stream ecosystem response to urbanization and, as such, should lead to different management approaches. The idea that all urban streams can be cured using the same treatment is simplistic, but overemphasizing the tremendous differences among natural (or human-altered) systems also can paralyze management. Thoughtful integration of work that recognizes the commonalities of the urban stream syndrome across the globe has benefitted urban stream management. Now we call for a more nuanced understanding of the regional, subregional, and local attributes of any given urban stream and its watershed to advance the physical, chemical, and ecological recovery of these systems.

  7. Urban air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenger, J.

    1999-01-01

    Since 1950 the world population has more than doubled, and the global number of cars has increased by a factor of 10. In the same period the fraction of people living in urban areas has increased by a factor of 4. In year 2000 this will amount to nearly half of the world population. About 20 urban regions will each have populations above 10 million people. Seen over longer periods, pollution in major cities tends to increase during the built up phase, they pass through a maximum and are then again reduced, as abatement strategies are developed. In the industrialised western world urban air pollution is in some respects in the last stage with effectively reduced levels of sulphur dioxide and soot. In recent decades however, the increasing traffic has switched the attention to nitrogen oxides, organic compounds and small particles. In some cities photochemical air pollution is an important urban problem, but in the northern part of Europe it is a large-scale phenomenon, with ozone levels in urban streets being normally lower than in rural areas. Cities in Eastern Europe have been (and in many cases still are) heavily polluted. After the recent political upheaval, followed by a temporary recession and a subsequent introduction of new technologies, the situation appears to improve. However, the rising number of private cars is an emerging problem. In most developing countries the rapid urbanisation has so far resulted in uncontrolled growth and deteriorating environment. Air pollution levels are here still rising on many fronts. Apart from being sources of local air pollution, urban activities are significant contributors to transboundary pollution and to the rising global concentrations of greenhouse gasses. Attempts to solve urban problems by introducing cleaner, more energy-efficient technologies will generally have a beneficial impact on these large-scale problems. Attempts based on city planning with a spreading of the activities, on the other hand, may generate

  8. Prospects for resilience and sustainability of urban socio-techno-ecological systems to evolving stressors at global, regional, and local scales (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, N. B.

    2013-12-01

    Urbanization is occurring at an accelerating rate against a backdrop of the numerous other globally significant environmental changes that are the hallmark of the Anthropocene. Thus an understanding of the environmental impacts of urbanization must recognize the multiscalar context of other environmental changes. Cities are focal points of human population, production, and consumption, including the generation of waste and most of the critical emissions to the atmosphere. They are highly modified and dominated by built structure. They are generally depauperate of species and harbor their own microclimates and hot spots of pollutants. But they also are centers of human creative activities, and in that capacity may provide platforms for the transition to a more sustainable world. A view of the city, a complex social-technological-ecological system, as both driver and responder to these multiple stressors is key to developing appropriate conceptual frameworks for understanding urban ecosystem change. The convergence of global environmental change, including climate change, and worldwide urbanization presents numerous challenges for sustainability that are manifest at global, regional, and local scales. This presentation will explore the current reality and future prospects for resilience of cities and, more specifically, urban water systems, to extant and changing stressors at these three scales. At the global scale, challenges of supplying water for three billion new urban residents in the coming decades are explored through a geography of water availability, quality, and accessibility. At regional scales, I highlight differences in solutions to climate change-related challenges that derive from geophysical and socioecological gradients. And, at the local scale, blended technological and ecological solutions to the challenges of urban stormwater and the 'new normal' are discussed, based on a case study in an arid urban ecosystem. Urban resilience and sustainability

  9. Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  10. Digital Innovations: Startup Marketing Strategy for Global Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Gröhn, Hanna

    2017-01-01

    This thesis discusses the relatively new phenomena of innovative digital products created by startup companies, who often must scale globally fast, before the volatile trends or the fierce competition of the digital marketspace take over. International entry itself is no longer the issue, but rather standing out in the crowd while balancing resources and flexibility. The focus is on how startups can induce global growth and tackle structural obstacles by means of marketing strategy. The t...

  11. Urban Intensification and Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts on Urban Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzokwe, V. N. E. N.; Muchelo, R. O.; Odeh, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urban intensification and expansion are increasing at alarming rates due to rapid population growth and rural-to-urban migration. This has led to the premise that the proportion of SSA urban residents most vulnerable to food insecurity is the highest in the world. Using a focused survey and multi-temporal (decadal) land use/cover classification of Landsat images, we explored the effect of urban intensification and expansion on urban agriculture and food security, focusing on a megacity and a regional center in Uganda: Kampala and Mbarara, respectively. We found that food insecurity arose due to a number of reasons, among which are: i) expansion and intensification of of urban settlements into previously productive agricultural lands in urban and peri-urban areas; ii) loss of predominantly young (rural agricultural) adult labor force to urban centers, leading to decline in rural food production; iii) lack of proper urban planning incorporating green and agricultural development leading to low productive market garden systems. We discussed these outcomes in light of existing studies which estimated that urban agriculture alone supports over 800 million people globally and accounts for 15-20% of world food supply. In spite of this relatively low contribution by urban/peri-urban agriculture, it probably accounts for higher proportion of food supply to urban poor in SSA and thus are most vulnerable to the loss of urban and peri-urban agricultural land. Further recommendations require policy makers and urban planners to team up to design a suitable framework for sustainable urban planning and development.

  12. A Global comparison of surface soil characteristics across five cities: A test of the urban ecosystem convergence hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard V. Pouyat; Ian D. Yesilonis; Miklos Dombos; Katalin Szlavecz; Heikki Setala; Sarel Cilliers; Erzsebet Hornung; D. Johan Kotze; Stephanie Yarwood

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Global Urban Soil Ecology and Education Network and to test the urban ecosystem convergence hypothesis, we report on soil pH, organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) measured in four soil habitat types (turfgrass, ruderal, remnant, and reference) in five metropolitan areas (Baltimore, Budapest,...

  13. Economic Growth and Expansion of China’s Urban Land Area: Evidence from Administrative Data and Night Lights, 1993–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Gibson

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between economic growth, expansion of urban land area and the broader issue of cultivated land conversion in China has been closely examined for the late 1980s and 1990s. Much less is known about recent urban expansion and if the effects of economic growth on this expansion have changed over time. This paper updates estimates of urban expansion for China and examines the relationship with city economic growth for 1993–2012. To see if patterns are robust to different types of evidence, administrative data on the area of 225 urban cores are compared to estimates of brightly lit areas from remotely sensed night lights. The trend annual expansion rate in lit area is 8% and was significantly faster in the decade to 2002 than in the most recent decade. Expansion is slower according to administrative data, at just 5% per annum, with no change in unconditional expansion rates between decades, while conditional expansion rates have declined. The elasticity of area with respect to city economic output is about 0.3. Over time, expansion of urban land area is becoming less responsive to the growth of the local non-agricultural population.

  14. Urban microbiomes and urban ecology: how do microbes in the built environment affect human sustainability in cities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Gary M

    2014-09-01

    Humans increasingly occupy cities. Globally, about 50% of the total human population lives in urban environments, and in spite of some trends for deurbanization, the transition from rural to urban life is expected to accelerate in the future, especially in developing nations and regions. The Republic of Korea, for example, has witnessed a dramatic rise in its urban population, which now accounts for nearly 90% of all residents; the increase from about 29% in 1955 has been attributed to multiple factors, but has clearly been driven by extraordinary growth in the gross domestic product accompanying industrialization. While industrialization and urbanization have unarguably led to major improvements in quality of life indices in Korea and elsewhere, numerous serious problems have also been acknowledged, including concerns about resource availability, water quality, amplification of global warming and new threats to health. Questions about sustainability have therefore led Koreans and others to consider deurbanization as a management policy. Whether this offers any realistic prospects for a sustainable future remains to be seen. In the interim, it has become increasingly clear that built environments are no less complex than natural environments, and that they depend on a variety of internal and external connections involving microbes and the processes for which microbes are responsible. I provide here a definition of the urban microbiome, and through examples indicate its centrality to human function and wellbeing in urban systems. I also identify important knowledge gaps and unanswered questions about urban microbiomes that must be addressed to develop a robust, predictive and general understanding of urban biology and ecology that can be used to inform policy-making for sustainable systems.

  15. URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON TREE GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plants in urban ecosystems are exposed to many pollutants and higher temperatures, CO2 and nitrogen deposition than plants in rural areas. Although each factor has a detrimental or beneficial influence on plant growth, the net effect of all factors and the key driving variables a...

  16. A global analysis approach for investigating structural resilience in urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugume, Seith N; Gomez, Diego E; Fu, Guangtao; Farmani, Raziyeh; Butler, David

    2015-09-15

    Building resilience in urban drainage systems requires consideration of a wide range of threats that contribute to urban flooding. Existing hydraulic reliability based approaches have focused on quantifying functional failure caused by extreme rainfall or increase in dry weather flows that lead to hydraulic overloading of the system. Such approaches however, do not fully explore the full system failure scenario space due to exclusion of crucial threats such as equipment malfunction, pipe collapse and blockage that can also lead to urban flooding. In this research, a new analytical approach based on global resilience analysis is investigated and applied to systematically evaluate the performance of an urban drainage system when subjected to a wide range of structural failure scenarios resulting from random cumulative link failure. Link failure envelopes, which represent the resulting loss of system functionality (impacts) are determined by computing the upper and lower limits of the simulation results for total flood volume (failure magnitude) and average flood duration (failure duration) at each link failure level. A new resilience index that combines the failure magnitude and duration into a single metric is applied to quantify system residual functionality at each considered link failure level. With this approach, resilience has been tested and characterised for an existing urban drainage system in Kampala city, Uganda. In addition, the effectiveness of potential adaptation strategies in enhancing its resilience to cumulative link failure has been tested. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Savings, Investment & FDI Contribution To Malaysian Economic Growth In The Globalization Era

    OpenAIRE

    Kasim Mansur; Markos Mamalakis; Sidah Idris

    2011-01-01

    What are the prospects and future of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Malaysia now? Malaysia is undoubtedly a development success story. Throughout the post-independence period since 1957, Malaysia has enjoyed rapid economic growth with rising per capita income and price stability. Rising living standards, greater urbanization and access to health and education, and an improvement in the distribution of income have accompanied economic growth. Malaysian performance has been particularly rem...

  18. Using stable isotopes in tree rings to evaluate the impact of urban pollution on CO2 uptake by forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savard, M.M.; Begin, Ch.; Marion, J.

    2004-01-01

    Contributions addressing the impact of industrial activities on tree growth are scarce; likewise, only a few studies document δ 13 C values in growth rings of natural specimens subjected to potentially toxic industrial emissions. These last studies suggest that the SO 2 emissions affect the physiology of trees and induce changes in their carbon isotope ratios. It has been reported that copper-smelter emissions reduce the C uptake of exposed trees by 35 % to 6 % relatively to unexposed trees, in growth stands located between 9 and 120 km from the smelter. In the context of the globally increasing concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere, what is the net impact of the large-scale annual reduction of CO 2 uptake induced by phyto-toxic pollutants? What should we expect for trees growing in regions submitted to urban diffuse pollution? It has been recently suggested on the basis of plant biomass measurements in the New York region that urban pollution can relatively reduce plant growth, but the effect is apparently greater in distant rural sites than in peri-urban and urban ones. Is this representative of numerous urban settings? If the answer to this question is yes, the pollution-effect parameter should be considered in the global annual forest C budget, particularly for the highly industrialized northern hemisphere. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) measure the tissue increments of the stems and determine the C isotopic ratios in tree-ring cellulose of selected trees undergoing pollution stress in selected peri-urban stands; (2) present a secular time series of the CO 2 uptake by forests peripheral to a large urban region; and (3) evaluate stable isotope dendro-geochemistry as a proxy for past changes of air quality in urban and peri-urban settings. (authors)

  19. Towards large-scale mapping of urban three-dimensional structure using Landsat imagery and global elevation datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Huang, C.

    2017-12-01

    The three-dimensional (3D) structure of buildings and infrastructures is fundamental to understanding and modelling of the impacts and challenges of urbanization in terms of energy use, carbon emissions, and earthquake vulnerabilities. However, spatially detailed maps of urban 3D structure have been scarce, particularly in fast-changing developing countries. We present here a novel methodology to map the volume of buildings and infrastructures at 30 meter resolution using a synergy of Landsat imagery and openly available global digital surface models (DSMs), including the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ASTER Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), ALOS World 3D - 30m (AW3D30), and the recently released global DSM from the TanDEM-X mission. Our method builds on the concept of object-based height profile to extract height metrics from the DSMs and use a machine learning algorithm to predict height and volume from the height metrics. We have tested this algorithm in the entire England and assessed our result using Lidar measurements in 25 England cities. Our initial assessments achieved a RMSE of 1.4 m (R2 = 0.72) for building height and a RMSE of 1208.7 m3 (R2 = 0.69) for building volume, demonstrating the potential of large-scale applications and fully automated mapping of urban structure.

  20. Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

    2012-12-01

    This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

  1. New Futures for Older Ports: Synergistic Development in a Global Urban System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe Ravetz

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Port cities are on the front-line of a changing global urban system. There are problems from restructuring of trade, logistics and ship-building, creating economic dependency, social exclusion and cultural destruction. Meanwhile, there exists new opportunities in heritage tourism, cultural industries and ecological restoration, but these opportunities often have negative impacts. This paper addresses the question of how port cities can steer from negative to positive development paths and outcomes. It sets out a way of working with inter-connected economic, social, political and technological factors—a ‘synergistic’ approach to mapping of problems and design of policy responses. Looking at three contrasting examples of port cities—Liverpool, Dubai and Mauritius—we can compare the inter-connected dynamics of growth and decline. Then we can understand the inter-connected factors of successful regeneration and sustainable prosperity, not as linear ‘policy fixes’, but more like synergistic processes of learning, innovation and capacity building. These call for new models for creative innovation in social and community enterprise: cultural heritage both old and new; new social finance and investment; socio-ecological restoration with participative governance, etc. Such pathways and opportunities are now emerging in many different locations; this paper provides methods and tools to understand them and promote them.

  2. The effectiveness of conservation interventions to overcome the urban-environmental paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Robert I

    2015-10-01

    Globally, urbanization is rapidly growing cities and towns at a historically unprecedented rate, and this rapid urban growth is influencing many facets of the environment. This paper reviews the effectiveness of conservation interventions that are designed to increase urban sustainability. It presents evidence for an apparent urban-environmental paradox: while the process of urban growth converts natural habitat to other land covers and degrades natural resources and ecosystem function, the increase in human population can increase demand for natural resources and ecosystem services. The fundamental problem that many conservation interventions try to address is that most facets of the environment are common or public goods, and are hence undervalued in decision making (market failure). The paper presents a threefold classification of conservation interventions in cities: conservation in the city (protecting biodiversity), conservation by the city (reducing per capita resource and energy use), and conservation for cities (projects that maintain or enhance ecosystem services). It ends by discussing methods for spatially targeting conservation interventions of all three types and for quantifying the effectiveness of interventions retrospectively. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

  3. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  4. Overview of urban growth simulation: With examples of results from three SA cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities...

  5. The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, urban growth boundaries (UGBs have been regarded as effective tools applied by planners and local governments to curb urban sprawl and guide urban smart growth. The UGBs help limit urban development to suitable areas and protect surrounding agricultural and ecological landscapes. At present, China’s Town and Country Planning Act officially requires the delimitation of UGBs in a city master planning outline and in central urban area planning. However, China’s practices in UGBs are usually determined by urban planners and local authorities, and lack a sound analytical basis. Consequently, Chinese UGBs are often proven to be inefficient for controlling urban expansion. In this paper, take the fast-growing Xinzhuang town of Changshu city, eastern China as an example, a new method towards establishing UGBs is proposed based on land-use change model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent, CLUE-S. The results of our study show that the land-use change and urban growth simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is high. The expansion of construction land and the decrease of paddy field would be the main changing trends of local land use, and a good deal of cultivated land and ecological land would be transformed into construction land in 2009–2027. There is remarkable discordance in the spatial distribution between the simulated UGBs based on the CLUE-S model and the planned UGBs based on the conventional method, where the simulated results may more closely reflect the reality of urban growth laws. Therefore, we believe that our method could be a useful planning tool for the delimitation of UGBs in Chinese cities.

  6. Responses of herbaceous plants to urban air pollution: Effects on growth, phenology and leaf surface characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honour, Sarah L.; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Ashenden, Trevor W.; Cape, J. Neil; Power, Sally A.

    2009-01-01

    Vehicle exhaust emissions are a dominant feature of urban environments and are widely believed to have detrimental effects on plants. The effects of diesel exhaust emissions on 12 herbaceous species were studied with respect to growth, flower development, leaf senescence and leaf surface wax characteristics. A diesel generator was used to produce concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) representative of urban conditions, in solardome chambers. Annual mean NO x concentrations ranged from 77 nl l -l to 98 nl l -1 , with NO:NO 2 ratios of 1.4-2.2, providing a good experimental simulation of polluted roadside environments. Pollutant exposure resulted in species-specific changes in growth and phenology, with a consistent trend for accelerated senescence and delayed flowering. Leaf surface characteristics were also affected; contact angle measurements indicated changes in surface wax structure following pollutant exposure. The study demonstrated clearly the potential for realistic levels of vehicle exhaust pollution to have direct adverse effects on urban vegetation. - Fumigation experiments demonstrate adverse effects of exhaust emissions on urban vegetation

  7. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Andrissi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area, aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. RESULTS: Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area dependent distribution. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a

  8. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrissi, Laura; Mottini, Giovanni; Sebastiani, Valeria; Boldrini, Laura; Giuliani, Alessandro

    2013-01-01

    The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area), aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD) was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach) analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components) were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area-dependent distribution. We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake) and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a balanced diet must go hand-in-hand with the intervention on caloric intake in order to

  9. Urban ecology in a developing world: why advanced socioecological theory needs Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHale, Melissa R; Bunn, David N; Pickett, Steward Ta; Twine, Wayne

    2013-12-01

    Socioecological theory, developed through the study of urban environments, has recently led to a proliferation of research focusing on comparative analyses of cities. This research emphasis has been concentrated in the more developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere (often referred to as the "Global North"), yet urbanization is now occurring mostly in the developing world, with the fastest rates of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like South Africa are experiencing a variety of land-cover changes that may challenge current assumptions about the differences between urban and rural environments and about the connectivity of these dynamic socioecological systems. Furthermore, questions concerning ecosystem services, landscape preferences, and conservation - when analyzed through rural livelihood frameworks - may provide insights into the social and ecological resilience of human settlements. Increasing research on urban development processes occurring in Africa, and on patterns of kinship and migration in the less developed countries of the "Global South", will advance a more comprehensive worldview of how future urbanization will influence the progress of sustainable societies.

  10. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  11. Influence of Urbanization Factors on Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity: A Comparison of Countries at Different Developmental Phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaoping Cui

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization is a global problem with demographic trends. The urban heat island plays a dominant role in local climate systems. Despite existing efforts to understand the impacts of multiple urbanization factors on the urban heat island globally, very little is known about the attribution of urban heat island magnitude to urbanization in different locations or developmental phases. In this study, based on global land surface temperature data, urban spatial domain data, gross domestic product (GDP, and population data, we analyzed the influence of multiple urbanization factors on global surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII. We also tentatively compared the abovementioned factors between different regions across the globe, especially between China and the USA, the largest countries that are experiencing or have experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades. The results showed that global SUHII had remarkable spatial heterogeneity due to the geographical and socioeconomic variation between cities. There was a significant correlation between SUHII and population as well as GDP in global cities. Moreover, this study suggested that the impacts of population on SUHII might be stronger in the early stages of urbanization, and the GDP factor would become a critical factor at a certain development level. The urban area also had non-ignorable impacts on SUHII, while the correlation between SUHII and urban shape was relatively weak. All these may imply that the best approach to slow down SUHII is to find other solutions, e.g., optimize the spatial configuration of urban internal landscapes, when the urbanization reaches a high level.

  12. Sprawl and mega-events: Economic growth and recent urban expansion in a city losing its competitive edge (Athens, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the new context of contemporary cities, local competitiveness for financial resources has grown more than ever, resulting in cities characterised by important socioeconomic transformations. Earlier studies addressed the relation between urban expansion, socioeconomic development and mega-events only for specific areas and types of urban growth, often overlooking the role of mega-events in fuelling urban sprawl. As the host of the 2004 Olympic Games, Athens, Greece is a paradigmatic example for emerging cities hosting mega-events due to the close interconnection between the Olympics, infrastructure development and urban sprawl. This article connects the latent relationship between economic expansion driven by the Olympic Games and laissez-faire urbanism to the long-term unregulated urban expansion characterising Athens’s development. By providing room for the original wave of sprawl, the resulting socioeconomic context is interpreted as a signal of the weakness of the “competitive city” framework in poorly planned and long-deregulated urban contexts such as Athens. A comprehensive analysis of recent phases of economic growth and discontinuous urban expansion thus provides further insight into understanding sprawl processes in today’s cities, and helps distinguish the morphological patterns and socioeconomic dynamics that characterise urban expansion during sequential cycles of economic expansion and recession.

  13. Coping with Migration-Induced Urban Growth: Addressing the Blind Spot of UN Habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Aerni

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The demography of cities in the 21st century will be shaped, to a large extent, by migration. This paper argues that the rights-based approach to urban policy advocated in the preparatory work of Habitat III, the UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development to be held in October 2016 in Quito, Ecuador, may not be conducive to this goal. The approach lacks a contextual and dynamic understanding of urbanization. It implicitly assumes that a growing and expansive urban economy would primarily benefit the rich and harm the poor. The resulting containment policies to stop “urban sprawl” and defend “the right to the city” can, however, be counterproductive if adopted in cities in less developed countries (LDCs that grow fast due to internal migration. Attempts to limit urban growth may merely lead to more informal settlements, less affordable housing, and increasing costs of doing business. In other words, it may benefit the rich and harm the poor. LDCs should, therefore, refrain from adopting defensive urban policies mostly advocated by more developed countries (MDCs and, instead, plan for sustainable urban expansion designed to improve access to essential urban services and to create a level playing field for newcomers in business. In this context, urban policies may build upon the basic insights of the late urbanist Jane Jacobs. She recognized that the vital function of cities is to provide affordable infrastructure and an institutional environment that enable migrants and other marginal urban communities to contribute to urban prosperity and problem-solving with their skills, networks, and entrepreneurial minds. The resulting social and economic empowerment increases access to essential human rights and ensures that cities become more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable.

  14. Global Marine Fisheries with Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Sugiawan, Yogi; Islam, Moinul; Managi, Shunsuke

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the state of global marine fisheries and empirically analyzes its relationship to economic factors. We apply the pooled mean group estimator method to examine 70 fishing countries for the period of 1961-2010. We use both catch and the estimated size of stock as proxies for marine ecosystems. Our results confirm that economic growth initially leads to the deterioration of marine ecosystems. However, for a per capita income level of approximately 3,827 USD for the catch mode...

  15. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgren, Karin; Kjellström, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly elect...

  16. Urban ecology in a developing world: why advanced socioecological theory needs Africa

    OpenAIRE

    McHale, Melissa R; Bunn, David N; Pickett, Steward TA; Twine, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    Socioecological theory, developed through the study of urban environments, has recently led to a proliferation of research focusing on comparative analyses of cities. This research emphasis has been concentrated in the more developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere (often referred to as the “Global North”), yet urbanization is now occurring mostly in the developing world, with the fastest rates of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like South Africa are experiencing a variety of lan...

  17. Urban forests for sustainable urban development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

    2017-11-01

    This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

  18. Global Drivers and Tradeoffs of Three Urban Vegetation Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, Cynnamon; Nitschke, Craig R.; Kendal, Dave

    2014-01-01

    Our world is increasingly urbanizing which is highlighting that sustainable cities are essential for maintaining human well-being. This research is one of the first attempts to globally synthesize the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services and how these relate to governance, social development and climate. Three urban vegetation ecosystem services (carbon storage, recreation potential and habitat potential) were quantified for a selection of a hundred cities. Estimates of ecosystem services were obtained from the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of well-known carbon and structural habitat models. We found relationships between ecosystem services, social development, climate and governance, however these varied according to the service studied. Recreation potential was positively related to democracy and negatively related to population. Carbon storage was weakly related to temperature and democracy, while habitat potential was negatively related to democracy. We found that cities under 1 million inhabitants tended to have higher levels of recreation potential than larger cities and that democratic countries have higher recreation potential, especially if located in a continental climate. Carbon storage was higher in full democracies, especially in a continental climate, while habitat potential tended to be higher in authoritarian and hybrid regimes. Similar to other regional or city studies we found that the combination of environment conditions, socioeconomics, demographics and politics determines the provision of ecosystem services. Results from this study showed the existence of environmental injustice in the developing world. PMID:25402184

  19. Global drivers and tradeoffs of three urban vegetation ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs, Cynnamon; Nitschke, Craig R; Kendal, Dave

    2014-01-01

    Our world is increasingly urbanizing which is highlighting that sustainable cities are essential for maintaining human well-being. This research is one of the first attempts to globally synthesize the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services and how these relate to governance, social development and climate. Three urban vegetation ecosystem services (carbon storage, recreation potential and habitat potential) were quantified for a selection of a hundred cities. Estimates of ecosystem services were obtained from the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of well-known carbon and structural habitat models. We found relationships between ecosystem services, social development, climate and governance, however these varied according to the service studied. Recreation potential was positively related to democracy and negatively related to population. Carbon storage was weakly related to temperature and democracy, while habitat potential was negatively related to democracy. We found that cities under 1 million inhabitants tended to have higher levels of recreation potential than larger cities and that democratic countries have higher recreation potential, especially if located in a continental climate. Carbon storage was higher in full democracies, especially in a continental climate, while habitat potential tended to be higher in authoritarian and hybrid regimes. Similar to other regional or city studies we found that the combination of environment conditions, socioeconomics, demographics and politics determines the provision of ecosystem services. Results from this study showed the existence of environmental injustice in the developing world.

  20. Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-12

    Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...Bryan S. Green and the Director was Dr. David W. Pittman. ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 viii Unit Conversion Factors Multiply By To Obtain acres 4,046.873...combat team studies. CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that

  1. International travel between global urban centres vulnerable to yellow fever transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Shannon E; Watts, Alexander; Cetron, Martin; German, Matthew; Kraemer, Moritz Ug; Bogoch, Isaac I; Brady, Oliver J; Hay, Simon I; Creatore, Maria I; Khan, Kamran

    2018-05-01

    To examine the potential for international travel to spread yellow fever virus to cities around the world. We obtained data on the international flight itineraries of travellers who departed yellow fever-endemic areas of the world in 2016 for cities either where yellow fever was endemic or which were suitable for viral transmission. Using a global ecological model of dengue virus transmission, we predicted the suitability of cities in non-endemic areas for yellow fever transmission. We obtained information on national entry requirements for yellow fever vaccination at travellers' destination cities. In 2016, 45.2 million international air travellers departed from yellow fever-endemic areas of the world. Of 11.7 million travellers with destinations in 472 cities where yellow fever was not endemic but which were suitable for virus transmission, 7.7 million (65.7%) were not required to provide proof of vaccination upon arrival. Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Peru and the United States of America had the highest volumes of travellers arriving from yellow fever-endemic areas and the largest populations living in cities suitable for yellow fever transmission. Each year millions of travellers depart from yellow fever-endemic areas of the world for cities in non-endemic areas that appear suitable for viral transmission without having to provide proof of vaccination. Rapid global changes in human mobility and urbanization make it vital for countries to re-examine their vaccination policies and practices to prevent urban yellow fever epidemics.

  2. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volker C. Radeloff; David P. Helmers; H. Anu Kramer; Miranda H. Mockrin; Patricia M. Alexandre; Avi Bar-Massada; Van Butsic; Todd J. Hawbaker; Sebastián Martinuzzi; Alexandra D. Syphard; Susan I. Stewart

    2018-01-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2...

  3. Urban Green Infrastructure as a tool for urban heat mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saaroni, H.; Amorim, J.H.; Hiemstra, J.A.; Pearlmutter, D.

    2018-01-01

    The combined trends of urban heat island intensification and global warming are focusing attention on greening of cities as a tool for urban heat mitigation. Our study examines the range of research approaches and findings regarding the role of urban green infrastructure (UGI) in mitigating urban

  4. Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Misha; Ponisio, Lauren C; Kremen, Claire; Thorp, Robbin W; Roderick, George K

    2016-03-01

    Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human-altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral-dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio-temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human-altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2009-01-01

    Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential

  6. Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Graft-johnson, K T

    1974-01-01

    but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.

  7. Global cities rankings. A research agenda or a neoliberal urban planning tool?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cándida Gago García

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper contains a theoretical reflection about the methodology and meaning given to the global city rankings. There is a very large academic production about the role that some cities have in global territorial processes, which has been related to the concept of global city. Many recent contributions from the mass media, advertising and consulting services must be considered also in the analysis. All of them have included new indicators in order to show the main role that cultural services have acquired in the urban economy. Also the city rankings are being used as a tool in neoliberal policies. These policies stress the position that cities have in the rankings, which are used in practices of city-branding and to justify the neoliberal decisions that are being taken. In fact, we think that rankings are used inappropriately and that it is necessary a deep and new reflection about them.

  8. Can the Future EnMAP Mission Contribute to Urban Applications? A Literature Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available With urban populations and their footprints growing globally, the need to assess the dynamics of the urban environment increases. Remote sensing is one approach that can analyze these developments quantitatively with respect to spatially and temporally large scale changes. With the 2015 launch of the spaceborne EnMAP mission, a new hyperspectral sensor with high signal-to-noise ratio at medium spatial resolution, and a 21 day global revisit capability will become available. This paper presents the results of a literature survey on existing applications and image analysis techniques in the context of urban remote sensing in order to identify and outline potential contributions of the future EnMAP mission. Regarding urban applications, four frequently addressed topics have been identified: urban development and planning, urban growth assessment, risk and vulnerability assessment and urban climate. The requirements of four application fields and associated image processing techniques used to retrieve desired parameters and create geo-information products have been reviewed. As a result, we identified promising research directions enabling the use of EnMAP for urban studies. First and foremost, research is required to analyze the spectral information content of an EnMAP pixel used to support material-based land cover mapping approaches. This information can subsequently be used to improve urban indicators, such as imperviousness. Second, we identified the global monitoring of urban areas as a promising field of investigation taking advantage of EnMAP’s spatial coverage and revisit capability. However, owing to the limitations of EnMAPs spatial resolution for urban applications, research should also focus on hyperspectral resolution enhancement to enable retrieving material information on sub-pixel level.

  9. What is Urban? A study of census and satellite-derived urban classes in the United States (1990-2010) with comparisons to India and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balk, D.; Leyk, S.; Jones, B.; Clark, A.; Montgomery, M.

    2017-12-01

    Geographers and demographers have contributed much to understanding urban population and urban place. Yet, we nevertheless remain ill-prepared to fully understand past urban processes and our urban future, and importantly, connect that knowledge to pressing concerns such as climate and environmental change. This is largely due to well-known data limitations and inherent inconsistencies in the urban definition across countries and over time and spatial scales, and because urban models and definitions arise out of disciplinary silos. This paper provides a new framework for urban inquiry in that it combines urban definitions used by the U.S. Census Bureau from 1990-2010 with newly available satellite-based (mostly Landsat) data on built-up area from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). We identify areas of agreement and disagreement, as well as the population distribution underlying various GHSL derived built-up land thresholds. Our analysis allows for a systematic means of discerning peri-urban areas from other types of urban development, as well as examines differences in these patterns at the national and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level. While we find overwhelming areas of agreement - about 70% of the census-designated urban population can be characterized as living on land that is at least 50% built-up - we also learn much of the significant heterogeneity in levels and patterns of growth between different MSAs. We further compare the US results with those for India and Mexico. This research unlocks the potential of such alternative measures for creating globally and temporally consistent proxies of urban land and may guide further research on consistent modeling of spatial demographic urban change, highly urgent for future work to distinguish between fine-scale levels of urban development and to forecast urban expansion.

  10. Social capital and vulnerable urban youth in five global cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Beth Dail; Astone, Nan; Blum, Robert W; Jejeebhoy, Shireen; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Olumide, Adesola; Wang, Ziliang

    2014-12-01

    Social capital is essential for the successful development of young people. The current study examines direct measures of social capital in young people in five urban global contexts. The Well-Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments is a global study of young people aged 15-19 years living in disadvantaged, urban settings. Respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit approximately 500 participants from each site. The sample included 2,339 young people (mean age 16.7 years; 47.5% female). We examined the associations between social capital in four domains-family, school, peers, and neighborhood and demographic characteristics-using gender-stratified ordinary least-squares regression. We also examined associations between self-reported health and the four social capital domains, which was minimal. School enrollment was positively associated with social capital for young women in Baltimore, Delhi, and Shanghai; the association was less consistent for young men. The same pattern is true for perceived wealth. Unstable housing was associated with low familial social capital in all groups except young women in Shanghai and young men in Ibadan and Johannesburg. Being raised outside a two-parent family has a widespread, negative association with social capital. Self-reported health had a mainly positive association with social capital with the most consistent association being neighborhood social capital. Different types of social capital interact with social contexts and gender differently. Strategies that aim to build social capital as part of risk reduction and positive youth development programming need to recognize that social capital enhancement may work differently for different groups and in different settings. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Social Capital and Vulnerable Urban Youth in Five Global Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Beth Dail; Astone, Nan; Blum, Robert; Jejeebhoy, Shireen; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Olumide, Adesola; Wang, Ziliang

    2015-01-01

    Background Social capital is essential for the successful development of young people. The current study examines direct measures of social capital in young people in five urban global contexts. Methods The Well Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments (WAVE) is a global study of young people aged 15 to 19 years living in disadvantaged, urban settings. Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) was used to recruit approximately 500 participants from each site. The sample included 2339 young people (mean age 16.7 years; 47.5% female). We examined the associations between social capital in four domains -family, school, peers and neighborhood -and demographic characteristics using gender stratified Ordinary Least Squares regression. We also examined associations between self-reported health and the four social capital domains is minimal. School enrollment was positively associated with social capital for young women in Baltimore, Delhi, and Shanghai: the association was less consistent for young men. The same pattern is true for perceived wealth. Unstable housing was associated with low familial social capital in all groups except young women in Shanghai and young men in Ibadan and Johannesburg. Being raised outside a two-parent family has a widespread, negative association with social capital. Self-reported health had a mainly positive association with social capital with the most consistent association being neighborhood social capital, Conclusions Different types of social capital interact with social contexts and gender differently. Strategies that aim to build social capital as part of risk reduction and positive youth development programming need to recognize that social capital enhancement may work differently for different groups and in different settings. PMID:25453999

  12. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, Volker C; Helmers, David P; Kramer, H Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H; Alexandre, Patricia M; Bar-Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D; Stewart, Susan I

    2018-03-27

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

  13. Is It Possible to Distinguish Global and Regional Climate Change from Urban Land Cover Induced Signals? A Mid-Latitude City Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wiesner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The local climate in cities differs from the one in rural areas, most prominently characterized by increased surface and air temperatures, known as the “(surface urban heat island”. As climate has changed and continues to change in all areas of the world, the question arises whether the effects that are noticeable in urban areas are “homemade”, or whether some of them originate from global and regional scale climate changes. Identifying the locally induced changes of urban meteorological parameters is especially relevant for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures. This study aims to distinguish global and regional climate change signals from those induced by urban land cover. Therefore, it provides a compilation of observed and projected climate changes, as well as urban influences on important meteorological parameters. It is concluded that evidence for climate change signals is found predominantly in air temperature. The effect of urban land cover on local climate can be detected for several meteorological parameters, which are air and surface temperature, humidity, and wind. The meteorology of urban areas is a mixture of signals in which the influencing parameters cannot be isolated, but can be assessed qualitatively. Blending interactions between local effects and regional changes are likely to occur.

  14. Monitoring urban growth and detection of land use with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Kyrenia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Can; Akçit, Nuhcan

    2016-08-01

    Land-cover change is considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. It is important to manage land resources in a sustainable manner which targets at compacting and consolidating urban development. From 2005 to 2015,urban growth in Kyrenia has been quite dramatic, showing a wide and scattered pattern, lacking proper plan. As a result of this unplanned/unorganized expansion, agricultural areas, vegetation and water bodies have been lost in the region. Therefore, it has become a necessity to analyze the results of this urban growth and compare the losses between land-cover changes. With this goal in mind, a case study of Kyrenia region has been carried out using a supervised image classification method and Landsat TM images acquired in 2005 and 2015 to map and extract land-cover changes. This paper tries to assess urban-growth changes detected in the region by using Remote Sensing and GIS. The study monitors the changes between different land cover types. Also, it shows the urban occupation of primary soil loss and the losses in forest areas, open areas, etc.

  15. Growth pattern of preterm and IUGR babies in an urban slum of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The present study was carried out to analyze the growth pattern of preterm and IUGR infants from birth up to nine months of age. A longitudinal study was conducted in an urban slum of Chetla, Kolkata, India. Study population comprised of 36 low birth weight babies, out of which 13 were preterms and rest 23 were IUGR ...

  16. Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif Hossain, Md.

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971-2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run. - Highlights: → Dynamic causal relationships are conducted for different panel variables of NIC. → Test results support only existence of unidirectional short-run causal relationships. → Environment will be polluted more due to energy consumption in the long-run. → But environmental quality is found to be normally good in respect of other variables. → NIC should use solar energy as the substitute of oil to control CO 2 emissions.

  17. Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Setälä, H.; Bardgett, R.D.; Birkhofer, K.; Brady, M.; Byrne, L.; de Ruiter, P.C.; de Vries, F.T.; Gardi, C.; Hedlund, K.; Hemerik, L.; Hotes, S.; Liiri, M.; Mortimer, S.R.; Pavao-Zuckerman, M.; Pouyat, R.; Tsiafouli, M.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2014-01-01

    [KEYWORDS: Agriculture Ecosystem services Land use Management optimization Soil Urban Trade-off] On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services

  18. Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

    2015-12-01

    This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

  19. Environmental sustainability assessment of urban systems applying coupled urban metabolism and life cycle assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkved, Morten; Goldstein, Benjamin Paul

    2013-01-01

    environmental sustainability of large urban systems by relating the environmental sustainability performance of urban systems with global environmental burden boundaries quantifying pollution thresholds beyond which performance of global ecosystems services may be detrimentally affected....

  20. The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Chuanhui; Crane, John; Hornberger, George; Carrico, Amanda

    2015-03-15

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn

  1. Assessing the Impact of Urbanization Using Remote Sensing On A Global Scale, Past Present And Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luvall, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    channel mid/thermal infrared instrument. These instruments build on a long heritage of NASA funded research using aircraft based urban remote sensing instruments to develop techniques for assessing the UHI. HyspIRI will provide the global datasets necessary to monitor and study the impacts of urbanization on a global scale.

  2. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  3. Urbanization and the Carbon Cycle: Synthesis of Ongoing Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, K. R.; Duren, R. M.; Hutyra, L.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Patarasuk, R.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Davis, K.; Kort, E. A.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Lauvaux, T.; Rao, P.; Eldering, A.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S.; McKain, K.; Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Cambaliza, M. O. L.

    2015-12-01

    Given the explosive growth in urbanization and its dominant role in current and future global greenhouse gas emissions, urban areas have received increasing research attention from the carbon cycle science community. The emerging focus is driven by the increasingly dense atmospheric observing capabilities - ground and space-based - in addition to the rising profile of cities within international climate change policymaking. Dominated by anthropogenic emissions, urban carbon cycle research requires a cross-disciplinary perspective with contributions from disciplines such as engineering, economics, social theory, and atmospheric science. We review the recent results from a sample of the active urban carbon research efforts including the INFLUX experiment (Indianapolis), the Megacity carbon project (Los Angeles), Salt Lake City, and Boston. Each of these efforts represent unique approaches in pursuit of different scientific and policy questions and assist in setting priorities for future research. From top-down atmospheric measurement systems to bottom-up estimation, these research efforts offer a view of the challenges and opportunities in urban carbon cycle research.

  4. Universal scaling of the distribution of land in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riascos, A. P.

    2017-09-01

    In this work, we explore the spatial structure of built zones and green areas in diverse western cities by analyzing the probability distribution of areas and a coefficient that characterize their respective shapes. From the analysis of diverse datasets describing land lots in urban areas, we found that the distribution of built-up areas and natural zones in cities obey inverse power laws with a similar scaling for the cities explored. On the other hand, by studying the distribution of shapes of lots in urban regions, we are able to detect global differences in the spatial structure of the distribution of land. Our findings introduce information about spatial patterns that emerge in the structure of urban settlements; this knowledge is useful for the understanding of urban growth, to improve existing models of cities, in the context of sustainability, in studies about human mobility in urban areas, among other applications.

  5. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.

  6. Modeling urbanization patterns with generative adversarial networks

    OpenAIRE

    Albert, Adrian; Strano, Emanuele; Kaur, Jasleen; Gonzalez, Marta

    2018-01-01

    In this study we propose a new method to simulate hyper-realistic urban patterns using Generative Adversarial Networks trained with a global urban land-use inventory. We generated a synthetic urban "universe" that qualitatively reproduces the complex spatial organization observed in global urban patterns, while being able to quantitatively recover certain key high-level urban spatial metrics.

  7. China's energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Zhujun; Lin Boqiang

    2012-01-01

    China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is the key stage of transition from a low-income country to a middle-income country and requires large amount of energy. The process will not end until 2020, so China's primary energy demand will keep high growth in the mid-term. Although each country is unique considering its particular history and background, all countries are sharing some common rules in energy demand for economic development. Based on the comparison with developed countries, here, we report some rules in the process of industrialization and urbanization as follows: (1) urbanization always goes along with industrialization; (2) the higher economic growth is, the higher energy demand is; (3) economic globalization makes it possible to shorten the time of industrialization, but the shorter the transition phase is, the faster energy demand grows; (4) the change of energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve, but whose shape can be changed for different energy policy. The above rules are very important for the Chinese government in framing its energy policy. - Highlights: ► China's energy demand will maintain high growth in mid-term. ► Urbanization always goes along with industrialization. ► Higher economic growth needs more energy. ► The energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve.

  8. Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

  9. A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be

  10. Construction of a new growth references for China based on urban Chinese children: comparison with the WHO growth standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui

    2013-01-01

    Growth references for Chinese children should be updated due to the positive secular growth trends and the progress of the smoothing techniques. Human growth differs among the various ethnic groups, so comparison of the China references with the WHO standards helps to understand such differences. The China references, including weight, length/height, head circumference, weight-for-length/height and body mass index (BMI) aged 0-18 years, were constructed based on 69,760 urban infants and preschool children under 7 years and 24,542 urban school children aged 6-20 years derived from two cross-sectional national surveys. The Cole's LMS method is employed for smoothing the growth curves. The merged data sets resulted in a smooth transition at age 6-7 years and continuity of curves from 0 to 18 years. Varying differences were found on the empirical standard deviation (SD) curves in each indicator at nearly all ages between China and WHO. The most noticeable differences occurred in genders, final height and boundary centiles curves. Chinese boys' weight is strikingly heavier than that of the WHO at age 6-10 years. The height is taller than that of the WHO for boys below 15 years and for girls below 13, but is significantly lower when boys over 15 years and girls over 13. BMI is generally higher than that of the WHO for boys at age 6-16 years but appreciably lower for girls at 3-18 years. The differences between China and WHO are mainly caused by the reference populations of different ethnic backgrounds. For practitioners, the choices of the standards/references depend on the population to be assessed and the purpose of the study. The new China references could be applied to facilitate the standardization assessment of growth and nutrition for Chinese children and adolescents in clinical pediatric and public health.

  11. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  12. Socio-economic and ecological transformations of the peri-urban region of Gurgaon: an analysis of the trickle-down effect in the post globalization era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, A.; Punia, M.

    2014-11-01

    Economic processes are a manifestation of dynamic complex interdependent array of factors which involves resources, technology and an acting innovative human mind. Production, growth and development are the processes which has vast number of complex drivers, determinants and factors. Innovation, research, diffusion and dissemination are vital instrument of the economic processes of production, which are part of education. Whereas ecological transformations can be corroborated and analyzed by integrating remote sensing based information related to expansion of built-up area beyond city boundaries, extending to peripheries. City reflect economic, environmental, technological and social processes in their change, yet all are in turn profoundly driven by the urban spatial expansion. Metropolitan cities reflects expansion of existing urban and peri-urban areas with a significant socio-ecological transformation in terms of employment, education, and work force participation and land use changes. From the point of view of New Economic Geography (NEG) Theory 2009, the growth dynamic of metros is influenced by their proximity and dependence to a metropolis and the probable spillover effect. Entry point of discussion is the change in production of space in the post globalization era. It attempts to understand city morphology by using remote sensing datasets of LISS IV, IRS-P6 of 5.8 m spatial resolution for 2008 and 2013 and used Gurgaon Municipal Corporation's (GMC) ward boundary to represent socio-political meaning of this expansion and ways of life within the suburb. To understand how city works, detailed analysis related occupational structure, education and informality of ward 31 of Gurgaon and two villages namely Behlpa, Fazalwas and ward 11 of Nuh ( Mewat) along with the village Gabsanpur is attempted as the spatial units of study.

  13. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. Mapping Impervious Surfaces Globally at 30m Resolution Using Landsat Global Land Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown de Colstoun, E.; Huang, C.; Wolfe, R. E.; Tan, B.; Tilton, J.; Smith, S.; Phillips, J.; Wang, P.; Ling, P.; Zhan, J.; Xu, X.; Taylor, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Impervious surfaces, mainly artificial structures and roads, cover less than 1% of the world's land surface (1.3% over USA). Regardless of the relatively small coverage, impervious surfaces have a significant impact on the environment. They are the main source of the urban heat island effect, and affect not only the energy balance, but also hydrology and carbon cycling, and both land and aquatic ecosystem services. In the last several decades, the pace of converting natural land surface to impervious surfaces has increased. Quantitatively monitoring the growth of impervious surface expansion and associated urbanization has become a priority topic across both the physical and social sciences. The recent availability of consistent, global scale data sets at 30m resolution such as the Global Land Survey from the Landsat satellites provides an unprecedented opportunity to map global impervious cover and urbanization at this resolution for the first time, with unprecedented detail and accuracy. Moreover, the spatial resolution of Landsat is absolutely essential to accurately resolve urban targets such a buildings, roads and parking lots. With long term GLS data now available for the 1975, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010 time periods, the land cover/use changes due to urbanization can now be quantified at this spatial scale as well. In the Global Land Survey - Imperviousness Mapping Project (GLS-IMP), we are producing the first global 30 m spatial resolution impervious cover data set. We have processed the GLS 2010 data set to surface reflectance (8500+ TM and ETM+ scenes) and are using a supervised classification method using a regression tree to produce continental scale impervious cover data sets. A very large set of accurate training samples is the key to the supervised classifications and is being derived through the interpretation of high spatial resolution (~2 m or less) commercial satellite data (Quickbird and Worldview2) available to us through the unclassified

  15. Urban blight and urban redesign

    OpenAIRE

    Zsilincsar, Walter

    2018-01-01

    The phenomenon of urban blight dates back to the 19th century when industrialisation starting in Europe and North America initiated an uncontrolled urban growth in combination with strong demand in cheap an quickly constructed housing. Ghettoisation of mainly the working-class population and other “marginal groups” were the consequence together with a constant decay of single buildings, whole blocks and quarters. These general aspects of urban blight with its additional facettes or aspects re...

  16. Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

    2016-12-14

    Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits.

  17. GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

  18. One-pager on Globalization, Growth and Poverty research Do ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    msandilands

    One-pagers are a publication of IDRC's “Globalization, Growth and Poverty” Program Initiative, and are based on findings from the GGP-supported projects referenced in the footnotes. Readers are encouraged to consult the Project output cited. The authors of the work cited are not responsible for the contents of GGP ...

  19. Spatiotemporal Effects of Climate Variability and Urban Growth on the "Valle de Toluca" Aquifer (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastachi-Loza, C. A.; Diaz-Delgado, C.; Esteller, M. V.; Gomez-Albores, M. A.; Becerril, R.; Ruiz-Gomez, M. D.

    2013-05-01

    Toluca city is located in the "Valle de Toluca" at the upper course of the Lerma river basin, is an important economic center which contributes with 1.2% of Gross National Product (GNP) since it is an industrial city, The city has grown due to the economic development sustained by the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer which provides water for human consumption, industrial facilities and crop irrigation. Recent studies have shown that in the last 50 years the annual precipitation rate in Toluca has increased 122 mm, whereas the daily minimum temperature has increased 1.1 °C and the daily maximum temperature has also increased 0.8 °C. These results show a general overview of the change in the climate conditions of the city; however they do not show the spatial distribution of the change. For this reason, the aim of this work was to evaluate the spatiotemporal change of precipitation rates and urban growth in order to determine their effects over the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer. In order to detect the urban growth, a supervised classification technique has been used taking into account Landsat TM satellite images between 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2005. A yearly spatiotemporal raster set of rainfall rates from 1980 to 2010 were obtained interpolating data from 812 climatologic stations. To evaluate the effect in annual precipitation rates and urban growth over the aquifer, we interpolate data from 38 piezometers from 1980 to 2010 to obtain a spatiotemporal raster set. The piezometric values correspond to the aquifer's upper level. The spatiotemporal raster sets were analyzed with the non-parametric Theil-Sen test to determine trends in piezometric levels and precipitation rates. Finally the urban growth, spatial-temporal trends of precipitation rates and piezometric levels were displayed in a GIS and then subjectively analyzed to figure out coincidences. An increase in annual precipitation rates (+87 mm) over Toluca's Valley during the last three decades was observed specially

  20. City Size, Density and Sectoral Structure: Exploring Urban Sustainability in the Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia

    2010-05-01

    For the first time in history, the Global population is more urban than rural and the trend is obvious at various scales. Cities do not serve just as dynamic centres of activities, jobs and consumption markets, social interactions and cultural expressions, but also carry the weight of the main environmental problems of current times and the near future. Global Warming, air and water pollution, population growth and recourse constraints, i.e. reduction of carrying capacity of the environment are among the well known ones. The overall aim of this research is to develop mitigation (at various scales) and adaptation systems, tailored to urban settlements. They should be effective at the very local as well as regional levels, assess and introduce innovative urban technologies and policies, reduce ecological footprint of cities and increase recycling efficiency. We propose the empirical method of urban sustainability assessment, that supports our hypothesis that city functioning, the changes in its population and area growth depends on the size, average and internal densities and the geographical form. The existing cities of three regions are examined: Western and Eastern Europe (incl. Russia), Latin America and China. There are fundamental urban developmental differences and also within the first region, namely between EU countries and the Eastern part of European geographical region. The cities are considered not only as some agglomerates of areas with dense population but from the ecological point of view, namely examining inflow of food and energy and outflow of waste products across the boundaries. There are major differences between the patterns of urbanisation in the studied regions, urban systems functioning and resilience. Continuous investigation of these differenced helps building regional scenarios of cities development, population allocation and pollution management for the 21st century.

  1. Urban thermal environment and its biophysical parameters derived from satellite remote sensing imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Tautan, Marina N.; Baschir, Laurentiu V.

    2013-10-01

    In frame of global warming, the field of urbanization and urban thermal environment are important issues among scientists all over the world. This paper investigated the influences of urbanization on urban thermal environment as well as the relationships of thermal characteristics to other biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania based on satellite remote sensing imagery Landsat TM/ETM+, time series MODIS Terra/Aqua data and IKONOS acquired during 1990 - 2012 period. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also retrieved from thermal infrared band of Landsat TM/ETM+, from MODIS Terra/Aqua datasets. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters have been analyzed. Results indicated that the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during two decades investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

  2. Urban design and the tracking of secondary school students in the urban landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harder, Henrik; Bro, Peter; Knudsen, Anne-Marie Sanvig

    2012-01-01

    Recent developments in the global positioning system (GPS) and the global system for mobile communications have enabled an increasingly simple and cost-effective tracking of human activity in urban areas through the use of mobile telephony for the collection of vast amounts of location-based data....... From an urban design perspective, location-based datasets concerning collective or individual spatial behaviour in urban areas are highly interesting. By combining the data with existing information on urban elements such as the location of plazas, shops, etc., infinitely detailed mappings...... of the interplay between users’ individual behaviours and urban elements can be gathered, but this requires accessible ways of representation. Further questions should address other, value-based choices concerning urban design. In the following we demonstrate a number of ways in which the collected data enable...

  3. Global Climate Change and Solutions for Urban Sustainability of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dao Phan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC, the largest city in Vietnam, is steadily growing, certainly towards a mega city in the near future. Like other mega cities at the boom stage, it has to face with serious environmental matters insolvable for many years. The situation may be worse under the effects of global climate change, geological subsidence due to non-standard construction and sea level rise. The situation of HCMC can be damaged or even broken by resonant effects of unsolved environmental matters and latent impacts of climate change. This article shows the challenges to the urban sustainable development under the duo effect of urban environmental matters and climate change in Ho Chi Minh City. Opportunities and strategic directions to overcome the challenges are also analyzed and recommended.

  4. The Effect of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Industrialization on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guangdong; Fang, Chuanglin; Wang, Shaojian; Sun, Siao

    2016-11-01

    Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in China have led to extremely severe air pollution that causes increasing negative effects on human health, visibility, and climate change. However, the influence mechanisms of these anthropogenic factors on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations are poorly understood. In this study, we combined panel data and econometric methods to investigate the main anthropogenic factors that contribute to increasing PM 2.5 concentrations in China at the prefecture level from 1999 to 2011. The results showed that PM 2.5 concentrations and three anthropogenic factors were cointegrated. The panel Fully Modified Least Squares and panel Granger causality test results indicated that economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization increased PM 2.5 concentrations in the long run. The results implied that if China persists in its current development pattern, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to increased PM 2.5 emissions in the long term. Industrialization was the principal factor that affected PM 2.5 concentrations for the total panel, the industry-oriented panel and the service-oriented panel. PM 2.5 concentrations can be reduced at the cost of short-term economic growth and industrialization. However, reducing the urbanization level is not an efficient way to decrease PM 2.5 pollutions in the short term. The findings also suggest that a rapid reduction of PM 2.5 concentrations relying solely on adjusting these anthropogenic factors is difficult in a short-term for the heavily PM 2.5 -polluted panel. Moreover, the Chinese government will have to seek much broader policies that favor a decoupling of these coupling relationships.

  5. Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Artificial Neural Network to Simulate Urbanization in Mumbai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadlou, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Tayyebi, A.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use change (LUC) models used for modelling urban growth are different in structure and performance. Local models divide the data into separate subsets and fit distinct models on each of the subsets. Non-parametric models are data driven and usually do not have a fixed model structure or model structure is unknown before the modelling process. On the other hand, global models perform modelling using all the available data. In addition, parametric models have a fixed structure before the modelling process and they are model driven. Since few studies have compared local non-parametric models with global parametric models, this study compares a local non-parametric model called multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and a global parametric model called artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate urbanization in Mumbai, India. Both models determine the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to compare the power of the both models for simulating urbanization. Landsat images of 1991 (TM) and 2010 (ETM+) were used for modelling the urbanization process. The drivers considered for urbanization in this area were distance to urban areas, urban density, distance to roads, distance to water, distance to forest, distance to railway, distance to central business district, number of agricultural cells in a 7 by 7 neighbourhoods, and slope in 1991. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve for MARS and ANN was 94.77% and 95.36%, respectively. Thus, ANN performed slightly better than MARS to simulate urban areas in Mumbai, India.

  6. Long-Term Urban Growth and Land Use Efficiency in Southern Europe: Implications for Sustainable Land Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Zitti

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study illustrates a multidimensional analysis of an indicator of urban land use efficiency (per-capita built-up area, LUE in mainland Attica, a Mediterranean urban region, along different expansion waves (1960–2010: compaction and densification in the 1960s, dispersed growth along the coasts and on Athens’ fringe in the 1970s, fringe consolidation in the 1980s, moderate re-polarization and discontinuous expansion in the 1990s and sprawl in remote areas in the 2000s. The non-linear trend in LUE (a continuous increase up to the 1980s and a moderate decrease in 1990 and 2000 preceding the rise observed over the last decade reflects Athens’ expansion waves. A total of 23 indicators were collected by decade for each municipality of the study area with the aim of identifying the drivers of land use efficiency. In 1960, municipalities with low efficiency in the use of land were concentrated on both coastal areas and Athens’ fringe, while in 2010, the lowest efficiency rate was observed in the most remote, rural areas. Typical urban functions (e.g., mixed land uses, multiple-use buildings, vertical profile are the variables most associated with high efficiency in the use of land. Policies for sustainable land management should consider local and regional factors shaping land use efficiency promoting self-contained expansion and more tightly protecting rural and remote land from dispersed urbanization. LUE is a promising indicator reflecting the increased complexity of growth patterns and may anticipate future urban trends.

  7. Urbanization and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Didenko, N. I.; Skripnuk, D. F.; Mirolyubova, O. V.

    2017-06-01

    This article analyses the global environment. The article describes processes that characterize the global environment, specific indicators are suggested, that can be used to measure the change in the global environment. It is said that cities and all urbanized territories have a negative effect on the global environment. Originally, the authors wanted to call the article «City as a source of destruction of the global environment». But taking into account the fact that urbanization contributes to improving the economic efficiency of the state, cities are the centers of the economic, cultural and informational potential that provide a «breakthrough» into the development of the economy. The article assesses the impact of urbanization on the global environment. For the analysis of the impact of urbanization on the natural habitat, the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL-model) are chosen.

  8. The Rise of Urban Slum in Nigeria: Implications on the Urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... defacement of the urban landscape in Nigeria. It recommends that Government and city planners should provide affordable land and low cost housing for the urban dwellers. This will enable people to own their property or rent as the case may be. Keywords: Urban Slum, Urban Landscape, Implication, Population, Growth

  9. Governance of urban transitions: towards sustainable resource efficient urban infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swilling, Mark; Hajer, Maarten

    2017-12-01

    The transition to sustainable resource efficient cities calls for new governance arrangements. The awareness that the doubling of the global urban population will result in unsustainable levels of demand for natural resources requires changes in the existing socio-technical systems. Domestic material consumption could go up from 40 billion tons in 2010, to 89 billion tons by 2050. While there are a number of socio-technical alternatives that could result in significant improvements in the resource efficiency of urban systems in developed and developing countries (specifically bus-rapid transit, district energy systems and green buildings), we need to rethink the urban governance arrangements to get to this alternative pathway. We note modes of urban governance have changed over the past century as economic and urban development paradigms have shifted at the national and global levels. This time round we identify cities as leading actors in the transition to more sustainable modes of production and consumption as articulated in the Sustainable Development Goals. This has resulted in a surge of urban experimentation across all world regions, both North and South. Building on this empirically observable trend we suggest this can also be seen as a building block of a new urban governance paradigm. An ‘entrepreneurial urban governance’ is proposed that envisages an active and goal-setting role for the state, but in ways that allows broader coalitions of urban ‘agents of change’ to emerge. This entrepreneurial urban governance fosters and promotes experimentation rather than suppressing the myriad of such initiatives across the globe, and connects to global city networks for systemic learning between cities. Experimentation needs to result in a contextually appropriate balance between economic, social, technological and sustainable development. A full and detailed elaboration of the arguments and sources for this article can be found in chapter 6 of Swilling M et

  10. Entanglement growth after a global quench in free scalar field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotler, Jordan S. [Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Hertzberg, Mark P. [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States); Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Mueller, Mark T. [Center for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2016-11-28

    We compute the entanglement and Rényi entropy growth after a global quench in various dimensions in free scalar field theory. We study two types of quenches: a boundary state quench and a global mass quench. Both of these quenches are investigated for a strip geometry in 1, 2, and 3 spatial dimensions, and for a spherical geometry in 2 and 3 spatial dimensions. We compare the numerical results for massless free scalars in these geometries with the predictions of the analytical quasiparticle model based on EPR pairs, and find excellent agreement in the limit of large region sizes. At subleading order in the region size, we observe an anomalous logarithmic growth of entanglement coming from the zero mode of the scalar.

  11. The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

    2017-10-11

    Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

  12. Estimating urban vegetation fraction across 25 cities in pan-Pacific using Landsat time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yuhao; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin

    2017-04-01

    Urbanization globally is consistently reshaping the natural landscape to accommodate the growing human population. Urban vegetation plays a key role in moderating environmental impacts caused by urbanization and is critically important for local economic, social and cultural development. The differing patterns of human population growth, varying urban structures and development stages, results in highly varied spatial and temporal vegetation patterns particularly in the pan-Pacific region which has some of the fastest urbanization rates globally. Yet spatially-explicit temporal information on the amount and change of urban vegetation is rarely documented particularly in less developed nations. Remote sensing offers an exceptional data source and a unique perspective to map urban vegetation and change due to its consistency and ubiquitous nature. In this research, we assess the vegetation fractions of 25 cities across 12 pan-Pacific countries using annual gap-free Landsat surface reflectance products acquired from 1984 to 2012, using sub-pixel, spectral unmixing approaches. Vegetation change trends were then analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistics and Theil-Sen slope estimators. Unmixing results successfully mapped urban vegetation for pixels located in urban parks, forested mountainous regions, as well as agricultural land (correlation coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.77). The greatest vegetation loss from 1984 to 2012 was found in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Dalian in China. In contrast, cities including Vancouver (Canada) and Seattle (USA) showed stable vegetation trends through time. Using temporal trend analysis, our results suggest that it is possible to reduce noise and outliers caused by phenological changes particularly in cropland using dense new Landsat time series approaches. We conclude that simple yet effective approaches of unmixing Landsat time series data for assessing spatial and temporal changes of urban vegetation at regional scales can provide

  13. Dynamic impact of urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Hamisu Sadi; Law, Siong Hook; Zannah, Talha Ibrahim

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic impact of urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria based on autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach for the period of 1971-2011. The result shows that variables were cointegrated as null hypothesis was rejected at 1 % level of significance. The coefficients of long-run result reveal that urbanization does not have any significant impact on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria, economic growth, and energy consumption has a positive and significant impact on CO 2 emissions. However, trade openness has negative and significant impact on CO 2 emissions. Consumption of energy is among the main determinant of CO 2 emissions which is directly linked to the level of income. Despite the high level of urbanization in the country, consumption of energy still remains low due to lower income of the majority populace and this might be among the reasons why urbanization does not influence emissions of CO 2 in the country. Initiating more open economy policies will be welcoming in the Nigerian economy as the openness leads to the reduction of pollutants from the environment particularly CO 2 emissions which is the major gases that deteriorate physical environment.

  14. Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson-Lira, Valeria

    Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

  15. Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Neha

    The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by

  16. Urban Land Expansion and Structural Change in the Yangtze River Delta, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinlong Gao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban development in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is still needed to examine and understand the mechanisms of urban land expansion, especially within the context of globalization/marketization, decentralization and urbanization. This paper analyzes urban land expansion and structural changes in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. We find that cities in the YRD are experiencing urban land expansion mainly characterized by the growth of residential and industrial land. The dominant characteristics of urban land expansion in cities have also varied within different development and administrative levels. Based on our conceptual framework, we have used multi-models to investigate the driving forces of urban land expansion and structural changes in the YRD. The results reveal that six influencing factors—foreign direct investment (FDI, labor, government competition, institution, population, and job-housing relations—facilitate land use change in the economic transition process. However, their impacts differ in cities in different geographical locations, as well as with different administrative levels. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable urban land use in the YRD.

  17. Urbanization dramatically altered the water balances of a paddy field dominated basin in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. Hao; G. Sun; Y. Liu; J. Wan; M. Qin; H. Qian; C. Liu; R. John; P. Fan; J. Chen

    2015-01-01

    Rice paddy fields provide important ecosystem services (e.g., food production, water retention, carbon sequestration) to a large population globally. However, these benefits are declining as a result of rapid environmental and socioeconomic transformations characterized by population growth, urbanization, and climate change in many Asian countries. This case study...

  18. New Challenges for Urban History: Culture, Networks, Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hietala, Marjatta

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban history is a very lively and dynamic research field, showing strict parallelism with the fast increasing of the urban population. Today, competitiveness is one of the key aims for cities in the globalized world. Factors such as accessibility and infrastructure, industry, human capital, innovation, and investment, green spaces, affordable housing, business support and quality of education are necessaries. However, the OECD recognizes three dilemmas in this strategic vision, concerning the spill over of metro-regions, the public strategic vision, and the relationship between economic dynamism and the liveable city. Today urban historians are facing some general challenges: comparative aspects are needed; also interdisciplinarity to develop cooperation between disciplines; and for maintaining the professional status of academic urban history. The expanding networks between towns and cities, and the meeting places as conferences and exhibitions are considered, as they are the multitudinous challenges and threats, especially for those cities suffering continuously of major natural and man-made disasters. Moreover, new amalgams of hazard are being created in metropolitan areas with overlapping natural, technological, biological and social risks, exposing more people and places, needing safety and security.

    La historia urbana es un campo de investigación muy vivo y dinámico, mostrando un paralelismo estricto con el rápido incremento de la población urbana. La competencia es hoy uno de los objetivos claves para las ciudades en el mundo globalizado. Factores tales como la accesibilidad y las infraestructuras, la industria, el capital humano, la innovación y la inversión, los espacios verdes, la vivienda accesible, el apoyo a los negocios y la calidad de la educación son necesarios. Sin embargo, la OCDE reconoce tres dilemas en esa visión estratégica, el desarrollo de las metrópolis, la visión estratégica pública y la relaci

  19. Multi-Sensor Constrained Time Varying Emissions Estimation of Black Carbon: Attributing Urban and Fire Sources Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    The short lifetime and heterogeneous distribution of Black Carbon (BC) in the atmosphere leads to complex impacts on radiative forcing, climate, and health, and complicates analysis of its atmospheric processing and emissions. Two recent papers have estimated the global and regional emissions of BC using advanced statistical and computational methods. One used a Kalman Filter, including data from AERONET, NOAA, and other ground-based sources, to estimate global emissions of 17.8+/-5.6 Tg BC/year (with the increase attributable to East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe - all regions which have had rapid urban, industrial, and economic expansion). The second additionally used remotely sensed measurements from MISR and a variance maximizing technique, uniquely quantifying fire and urban sources in Southeast Asia, as well as their large year-to-year variability over the past 12 years, leading to increases from 10% to 150%. These new emissions products, when run through our state-of-the art modelling system of chemistry, physics, transport, removal, radiation, and climate, match 140 ground stations and satellites better in both an absolute and a temporal sense. New work now further includes trace species measurements from OMI, which are used with the variance maximizing technique to constrain the types of emissions sources. Furthermore, land-use change and fire estimation products from MODIS are also included, which provide other constraints on the temporal and spatial nature of the variations of intermittent sources like fires or new permanent sources like expanded urbanization. This talk will introduce a new, top-down constrained, weekly varying BC emissions dataset, show that it produces a better fit with observations, and draw conclusions about the sources and impacts from urbanization one hand, and fires on another hand. Results specific to the Southeast and East Asia will demonstrate inter- and intra-annual variations, such as the function of

  20. How can urbanization be sustainable? : a reflection on the role of city resources in global sustainable development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pereira Roders, A.R.

    2014-01-01

    This article is a contribution to the debate on the role of city resources in global sustainable development. It discusses the evolution of models in which urbanization is defined to be sustainable, as well as, their relation to the conservation of city resources. Further, it provides an in-depth

  1. [A longitudinal study of urban-rural growth differences among infants fed with breast milk in six economically better areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    To understand the differences between urban and rural breast-fed infants' growth patterns. In economically better regions of six provinces in China, 1147 urban and 1058 rural subjects were recruited by the project respectively, and their longitudinal weight, length, and head circumference were measured from birth to 12 months old. The monitoring frequency was 16 times in total. Analysis was conducted to compare the growth patterns between 497 of urban and 764 of rural subjects meeting the breast-fed babies definition by WHO. During the first year after birth, urban breast-feeding boys' weight, length, head circumference increased by 7.13 kg, 26.9 cm, and 12.4 cm respectively, and 6.60 kg, 26.1 cm, and 11.9 cm for girls. The corresponding values of rural population were 6.70 kg, 25.7 cm and 12.4 cm for boys, and 6.20 kg, 25.0 cm, and 11.8 cm for girls respectively. The gaps existed in the three physical indexes between urban and rural breastfeeding babies were 110 - 480 g, 1.2 - 2.0 cm and 0.1 - 0.6 cm for boys, and 200 - 510 g, 1.3 - 1.7 cm, and 0.4 - 0.6 cm for girls. In about 50% of monitoring age points, monthly increments of urban boy's weight presented higher than rural samples, but only 17% for girl's weight, and boy/girl's length and head circumference. The urban-rural regional gaps in breast-fed infants' physical development were not optimistic and seemed to be wider in boys than in girls. There are still large room for improvement for growth of infants in rural areas.

  2. Comparing the urbanization and global warming impacts on extreme rainfall characteristics in Southern China Pearl River Delta megacity based on dynamical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, K. Y.; Tam, C. Y.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that urban land use can significantly influence the local temperature, precipitation and meteorology through altering land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture and heat in urban areas. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase ( 5-10%) on the intensity of extreme rainfall over Southeast China; it is projected to increase further according to the latest IPCC reports. In this study, we assess how urbanization and global warming together might impact on heavy precipitation characteristics over the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, located in southern China. This is done by dynamically downscaling GFDL-ESM2M simulations for the present and future (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). Over the PRD area, the WRF model is integrated at a resolution of 2km x 2km. To focus on extreme events, episodes covering daily rainfall intensity above the 99th percentile in Southeast China in the GFDL-ESM2M daily precipitation datasets were first identified. These extreme episodes were then dynamically downscaled in two parallel experiments with the following model designs: one with anthropogenic heat flux (AH) = 0 Wm-2 and the other with peak AH = 300 Wm-2 in the AH diurnal cycle over the urban domain. Results show that, with AH in urban area, the urban 2m-temperature can rise by about 2oC. This in turn leads to an increase of the mean as well as the extreme rain rates by 10-15% in urban domain. The latter is comparable to the impact of global warming alone, according to downscaling experiments for the RCP8.5 scenario. Implications of our results on urban effects on extreme rainfall under a warming background climate will be discussed.

  3. Economic Dimensions of Urban Agriculture in the Context of Urban ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Economic Dimensions of Urban Agriculture in the Context of Urban Poverty ... price crisis and the threat of climate change to traditional sources of food security. ... its 2017 call for proposals to establish Cyber Policy Centres in the Global South.

  4. Fondos inmobiliarios y riesgo urbano./ Real estate funds and urban risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Daher

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available La relación entre fondos de inversión inmobiliaria y riesgo urbano es compleja: el riesgo del sector inmobiliario-financiero incrementa la vulnerabilidad urbana, y la sustentabilidad de las ciudades es más dependiente del riesgo de ese sector que éste del riesgo urbano y del riesgo país. La suerte de las economías nacionales está muy asociada a la suerte de las ciudades y la del riesgo supranacional global a la del riesgo subnacional urbano. El riesgo financiero-inmobiliario se ha multiplicado por la financiarización: los fondos inmobiliarios transnacionales y la gran movilidad geográfica de capitales, por su alta y selectiva concentración metropolitana, inducen la inflación de burbujas y las crisis, afectando la sustentabilidad urbana, nacional e incluso global. La financiarización no sólo es inmobiliaria: se trata de una amplia “financiarización urbana” que incluye –como en la crisis subprime- la vivienda social, y que agudiza las disparidades e inequidades territoriales./ The association between real estate funds and urban risk is complex; financial uncertainty of real estate development increases urban vulnerability and negatively affects the sustainability of cities. However, the relation is not reciprocal, since the impact that urban risk, and the reliability of national economies have on real estate development is relatively low. The success of national economies depends on the specific conditions of a country’s cities, and the success of global supranational risk is closer to urban subnational risk. The financial risk of real estate development has increased because of financialisation. As the metropolitan concentration is high and selective, transnational real estate funds, along with the geographical mobility of capital, propel the growth of real estate bubbles and crisis, making a big impact on sustainability at many levels –urban, national and even global-. Financialisation is not just a real estate

  5. Exploiting Earth observation data pools for urban analysis: the TEP URBAN project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heldens, W.; Esch, T.; Asamer, H.; Boettcher, M.; Brito, F.; Hirner, A.; Marconcini, M.; Mathot, E.; Metz, A.; Permana, H.; Zeidler, J.; Balhar, J.; Soukop, T.; Stankek, F.

    2017-10-01

    Large amounts of Earth observation (EO) data have been collected to date, to increase even more rapidly with the upcoming Sentinel data. All this data contains unprecedented information, yet it is hard to retrieve, especially for nonremote sensing specialists. As we live in an urban era, with more than 50% of the world population living in cities, urban studies can especially benefit from the EO data. Information is needed for sustainable development of cities, for the understanding of urban growth patterns or for studying the threats of natural hazards or climate change. Bridging this gap between the technology-driven EO sector and the information needs of environmental science, planning, and policy is the driver behind the TEP-Urban project. Modern information technology functionalities and services are tested and implemented in the Urban Thematic Exploitation Platform (U-TEP). The platform enables interested users to easily exploit and generate thematic information on the status and development of the environment based on EO data and technologies. The beta version of the web platform contains value added basic earth observation data, global thematic data sets, and tools to derive user specific indicators and metrics. The code is open source and the architecture of the platform allows adding of new data sets and tools. These functionalities and concepts support the four basic use scenarios of the U-TEP platform: explore existing thematic content; task individual on-demand analyses; develop, deploy and offer your own content or application; and, learn more about innovative data sets and methods.

  6. Urbanization and Slum Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phua, Kai Hong

    2007-01-01

    The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution. PMID:17387618

  7. The future is urban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

  8. URBAN POLITICS: KEY APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ledyaeva Ol'ga Mikhaylovna

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches that underlie urban politics are discussed in the paper. They include neo-liberalism, political economy discourse, elitist/pluralist debates, and postmodernism. The neoliberal approach focuses on the limited role of the state and individual responsibility. The legal framework protects both the rights and responsibilities of individuals and regulates the operation of the market. It is the market that fosters individual choices and provides goods and services by virtue of the processes which are flexible, efficient and transparent. The political economy approaches (regulation theory, public choice theory, neo-Marxism explain urban politics via the analysis of national and international economic processes and changes in contemporary capitalism. Changes in national and international economies determine what solutions are possible. The discourse has been influenced by the debate on globalization of capital and labour markets. Modern elitism and neopluralism are represented by theories of "growth machines" and "urban regimes". The former focuses on bargaining alliances between political and business leaders in order to manage the urban system and to promote its growth. The latter develops neopluralist explanations of power within local communities with an emphasis on the fragmented nature of the government where local authorities lack comprehensive governing powers. Postmodernism views the city as the site of the crisis of late capitalism which leads to segregation of neighbourhoods onto prosperous areas and ghettoes. In contrast to the modern city, the postmodern city is not defined by its industrial base; rather, it is determined by its consumerist environment of malls and museums, characterized by revivalist architecture. At the same time, the suburban shopping mall and a motorway network make nonsense of the idea of the city as a unique and well-defined space. These and other approaches encompass a wide spectrum of possibilities

  9. Redistribution, Growth, and Inclusion : The Development of the Urban Housing System in China, 1949-2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, W.; Hoekstra, J.S.C.M.; Elsinga, M.G.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explains the development of the urban housing system in China from 1949 to 2011 with an emphasis on the factors driving housing inequality in each policy period. We argue that the logic underpinning the housing policy had shifted from socialist redistribution to the stimulation of growth

  10. Urban Re-qualification and New Centralization in Quelimane, Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klayde Karmila Gaspar Evaristo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay analyses urban restructuring caused by the introduction of new economic activities undertaken by private sector agents in Quelimane, Mozambique. The research investigated the process of urbanization and expansion of the city, economic dynamics and production of urban space, the growth of commerce and specialized services, social inequality and socio-spatial precariousness. The study seeks to demonstrate how issues related to the economic activities, agents and roles of actors in the process of urban restructuring are portrayed. A qualitative approach was used, involving interviews of key actors. The research revealed that urban restructuring in Quelimane in the recent past occurred informally and spontaneously as it still does today. Urban expansion reflects occupational models, the most expressive being economic activities undertaken by small and medium enterprises involving hotels, the provision of specialized goods and services, commerce, civil construction, entertainment and passenger transport in bicycle taxis. The study suggests that in the process of urban restructuring planners must be morecareful to embrace excluded actors. Similarly, the process of urban restructuring and city expansion must follow models of urban re-qualification based not only on official norms but which also take indigenous knowledge into account. This is fundamental in times of globalization in order to accommodate political, cultural and socio-economic functional systems.

  11. China's Urban Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannell, Clifton

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that Chinese urbanization is proceeding rapidly in step with population growth and a structural shift in employment patterns. Discusses governmental policies and economic reforms that enhance the urbanization process. Describes four extended metropolitan areas and maintains they will be the models for future urbanization. (CFR)

  12. Agricultural Abandonment, Suburban Growth, and Forest Expansion in Puerto Rico between 1991 and 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel K. Parés-Ramos

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The response of local economies to the globalization process can have a large effect on population and land-use dynamics. In countries with a high population density and relatively high levels of education, the globalization process has resulted in a shift in the local economy from agriculture to manufacturing, technology, and service sectors. This shift in the economy has impacted land-use dynamics by decreasing agricultural lands, increasing urban growth, and in some cases, increasing forest cover. This process of economic and forest transition has been well documented in Puerto Rico for the period 1950 to 1990, but some authors predicted that poor planning and continued urban growth would eliminate the gains in forest cover. To investigate the impacts of recent economic changes, we evaluated demographic and land-use changes for 880 "barrios" (i.e., neighborhoods, the smallest administrative unit, in Puerto Rico using government census data from 1990 and 2000 and land-cover classifications from 1991 and 2000. During this period, the population increased by 284 127 people (8.2%. Most of the growth was in the suburban barrios, whereas urban barrios lost population. This shift was reflected by the construction of more than 100 000 housing units in suburban barrios. Although urban sprawl is perceived as the major land-cover change, urban cover only increased from 10% to 11% between 1990 and 2000, whereas the increase in forest cover was much greater (28% to 40%. Grasslands and shrublands were the major sources of new urban and forest areas in 2000. Although these results are encouraging in terms of increasing forest cover, most of the new development has been concentrated in the coastal plains, which are the location of most of the remaining agricultural areas, a few protected areas, and threatened ecosystems (e.g., mangroves.

  13. Global Urban Heat Island (UHI) Data Set, 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect represents the relatively higher temperatures found in urban areas compared to surrounding rural areas owing to higher proportions...

  14. The European Dimension of the Global Urban Development Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bubenko Pavlo T.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the process of evolutionary formation of the EU Cities Development Program and analyzing the strategic instrumentarium for the urban development within the currently established EU urban policy at the present stage. The key features of the process of formation of the EU urban policy have been analyzed, the main stages of evolutionary formation of the integrated EU Cities Development Program have been defined and described. In the context of ensuring an integrated approach to the sustainable urban development and complementary positioning of urban development in the EU’s territorial development and cohesion strategies, the European Union’s normative and legal framework on urban development was researched. As a result of the conducted research, the strategic instrumentarium of implementation of the EU Cities Development Program has been systematized.

  15. Global Integration, Non-Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozoemena Stanley Nwodo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on global integration, non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria. The direct and interaction effect of the both openness variables and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria is investigated using quarterly data from 1986-2014. For analysis, it uses one measures of financial openness: de facto (total capital flow variables following Aizenman and Noy (2009.and a measure of trade openness adopted by Okoh (2004. The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL. The results show positive impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short run and in the long run, negative effect of trade and financial openness on economic growth however, the result recorded a negative effect of the interaction of trade openness and non-oil export on economic growth and a positive effect of the interaction of financial openness and non-oil export on economic growth. Thus, the study recommends among others that government should get the fundamentals right in the economy first that will boost non-oil sector before opening the economy for trade.

  16. Population in urban development and the practical problems of urban planning policy in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Uyanga

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the pattern of recent growth in African towns, examines the population component in this growth process and discusses the attendant urban planning problems. The contention in the study is that there are problems of definition. policy enunciation, and organisational co-ordination in the conceptualization. planning. orchestration and implementation of urban development and service systems. The magnitude of African urban developmental problems, and its multi-faceted nature demands that the latest in scientific knowledge and technological innovations should be integrated and incorporated into the urban planning and implementation processes.

  17. A blueprint for strategic urban research: the urban piazza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter; Franklin, Rachel S; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés

    2014-01-01

    Urban research in many countries has failed to keep up with the pace of rapidly and constantly evolving urban change. The growth of cities, the increasing complexity of their functions and the complex intra- and inter-urban linkages in this 'urban century' demand new approaches to urban analysis, which, from a systemic perspective, supersede the existing fragmentation in urban studies. In this paper we propose the concept of the urban piazza as a framework in order to address some of the inefficiencies associated with current urban analysis. By combining wealth-creating potential with smart urban mobility, ecological resilience and social buzz in this integrated and systemic framework, the aim is to set the basis for a ' New Urban World ' research blueprint, which lays the foundation for a broader and more integrated research programme for strategic urban issues.

  18. Sustainable urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Pierre-Noel

    2011-01-01

    The principal messages from Energy and urban innovation are presented. This report by the World Energy Council has examined the challenges related to energy in big cities (in particular 'mega-cities'), the policies that are being or could be implemented, and the role of firms in this implementation. Considerable progress can be made by using existing techniques. The main difficulty has to do with diffusing them. There is a need for organizational and institutional innovations that will stimulate players, coordinate their actions and speed up the tempo of change

  19. Urbanization in Kenya: Urbanization Trends and Prospects; Rural Development and Urban Growth. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurenti, Luigi; Gerhart, John

    Two articles on the urbanization of Kenya are presented in this survey. The first one, "Urbanization Trends and Prospects," by Luigi Laurenti, states that urbanization has only recently been recognized as a problem of some importance in Kenya, and this recognition is far from comprehensive. Consequently, public policy--and especially…

  20. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

  1. Some structural aspects of urbanization in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiq, M; Hailemariam, A

    1987-07-01

    This article studies the emerging patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia. Over the period from 1967-1984, a number of structural changes have occurred which are likely to play a dominant role in the future urban growth in Ethiopia. In spite of its long history of settled population, Ethiopia did not witness sustained growth of urban centers. Ethiopia is 1 of the least urbanized areas in the Third World. A 3rd aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials in the level of urbanization. Most of the urban population is concentrated in 2 administrative regions--Shoa and Eritrea. A more balanced urban growth may, inter alia, involve a better spread in terms of higher education, industrialization, provision of health and social services, and the development of communication and commercial infrastructure. Another striking feature of urbanization in Ethiopia is that growth has not been disproportionately concentrated in the largest urban centers. The largest urban centers have not assumed an inordinately higher level of primacy. The basic form of the curve depicting the relationship between the size of a locality and its rank has remained unchanged over the period. The post-revolution land reforms and the new socioeconomic structure emerging from reorganization of the society appear to have a rural-urban migration inhibiting effect. Some of the country's regional differentials may be associated with environmental factors.

  2. Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

    2008-02-08

    The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

  3. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  4. Nordic urban nature recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, Scott; Lindhjem, Henrik; Zandersen, Marianne

    the associated nonmarket welfare benefits. The study stresses the need to collect user data to better understand visitation patterns, which can be combined with valuation methods to provide evidence of economic benefits associated with e.g., hiking, cycling, skiing, paddling and other recreation activities. Once......The Nordic countries continue to experience growth of urban areas, which provides benefits like economic growth, but also imposes economic costs in terms of reduced ecosystem services. This report focuses on urban nature recreation and highlights economic methods and data that can help capture...... these benefits are visible, decision-makers will have a better basis to balance economic growth with the environmental costs it imposes on urban ecosystem services....

  5. Case Studies of Successful Assistance in Urban School Improvement Programs. I. The Teacher Growth Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piety-Jacobs, Sharon R.

    As part of a research project on "Patterns of Successful Assistance in Urban School Programs," this paper presents a case study of an assister's work in a Teacher Growth Program (TGP) at an elementary school in Staten Island, New York. The school has an experienced teaching staff, a supportive principal, a cross-sectional student…

  6. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water quality was analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes (LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro- invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  7. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water samples were analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes(LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro-invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  8. Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

    2014-07-01

    The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

  9. CHALLENGES TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF GROWTH FROM THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Unguru

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Global Competitiveness Index GCI developed by the World Economic Forum is currently a wellknown and most appreciated tool for assessing global competitiveness. This article takes advantage of the complexity and richness of information embedded in this composite indicator to analyze the main challenges arising for the sustainability of growth from the perspective of global competitiveness indicators. After a brief review of the European Union (EU member states’ current state in terms of competitiveness, the investigation is focused on the performance and dynamics of the various competitiveness determinants, that explain, on the one hand, the poor ranking of Romania in the world competitiveness scoreboard and represent, on the other hand, major barriers to sustainable development.

  10. City leadership: At the heart of the global challenge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliver, P.A.

    2008-09-30

    The world's attention is now focused on cities, and for good reasons. From a global perspective cities have become the engines of economic prosperity. In 2007, the collective Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the top 10 cities exceeded the total GDP of 162 countries combined, with Tokyo alone generating a larger GDP than Canada. Cities have become the centers of population. In 1900, only 10% of the world's population lived in cities, but by 2007 the urban population had reached 50%, and the estimate for 2050 is that 75% of the world's population, over 7 billion people, will be living in cities. In parallel, cities have become the centers of consumption. In 2006, cities accounted for approximately 67% of global primary energy demand, a concentration that is expected to rise to 75% by 2030. The corollary to this concentration of population and consumption is the concentration of activities that lead to climate change. Cities now acount for over 70% of global carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. Asia's cities are at the forefront of the global challenges of urbanization. While they are the location of many challenges, cities also present opportunities, particularly in finding solutions to the crucial global challenges of our time -- climate change, energy demand and water. Many of the world's greatest challenges, from environmental degradation to widening income gaps, are increasingly coming to be defined as urban challenges, given the rapid growth of cities. The author, who leads the World Economic Forum's SlimCity initiative, take a look at the options being explored by the public and private sectors.

  11. Scaling and universality in urban economic diversification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, Hyejin; Bettencourt, Luís M A; Lobo, José; Strumsky, Deborah; Samaniego, Horacio; West, Geoffrey B

    2016-01-01

    Understanding cities is central to addressing major global challenges from climate change to economic resilience. Although increasingly perceived as fundamental socio-economic units, the detailed fabric of urban economic activities is only recently accessible to comprehensive analyses with the availability of large datasets. Here, we study abundances of business categories across US metropolitan statistical areas, and provide a framework for measuring the intrinsic diversity of economic activities that transcends scales of the classification scheme. A universal structure common to all cities is revealed, manifesting self-similarity in internal economic structure as well as aggregated metrics (GDP, patents, crime). We present a simple mathematical derivation of the universality, and provide a model, together with its economic implications of open-ended diversity created by urbanization, for understanding the observed empirical distribution. Given the universal distribution, scaling analyses for individual business categories enable us to determine their relative abundances as a function of city size. These results shed light on the processes of economic differentiation with scale, suggesting a general structure for the growth of national economies as integrated urban systems. © 2016 The Authors.

  12. Urban expansion dynamics and natural habitat loss in China: a multiscale landscape perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Tian, Jie; Ma, Qun

    2014-09-01

    China's extensive urbanization has resulted in a massive loss of natural habitat, which is threatening the nation's biodiversity and socioeconomic sustainability. A timely and accurate understanding of natural habitat loss caused by urban expansion will allow more informed and effective measures to be taken for the conservation of biodiversity. However, the impact of urban expansion on natural habitats is not well-understood, primarily due to the lack of accurate spatial information regarding urban expansion across China. In this study, we proposed an approach that can be used to accurately summarize the dynamics of urban expansion in China over two recent decades (1992-2012), by integrating data on nighttime light levels, a vegetation index, and land surface temperature. The natural habitat loss during the time period was evaluated at the national, ecoregional, and local scales. The results revealed that China had experienced extremely rapid urban growth from 1992 to 2012 with an average annual growth rate of 8.74%, in contrast with the global average of 3.20%. The massive urban expansion has resulted in significant natural habitat loss in some areas in China. Special attention needs to be paid to the Pearl River Delta, where 25.79% or 1518 km(2) of the natural habitat and 41.99% or 760 km(2) of the local wetlands were lost during 1992-2012. This raises serious concerns about species viability and biodiversity. Effective policies and regulations must be implemented and enforced to sustain regional and national development in the context of rapid urbanization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Global change, urban livelihoods and food security; presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murambadoro, M

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Food security research and policy have focused more on the rural poor where the incidence and depth of poverty is more pronounced. Urban livelihoods are based on cash income and many people in urban areas are employed in the informal sector which...

  14. Urban Heat Island Growth Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression: A case study of Tehran, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Sh. A.; Saradjian, M. R.; Niazmardi, S.

    2013-09-01

    Numerous investigations on Urban Heat Island (UHI) show that land cover change is the main factor of increasing Land Surface Temperature (LST) in urban areas. Therefore, to achieve a model which is able to simulate UHI growth, urban expansion should be concerned first. Considerable researches on urban expansion modeling have been done based on cellular automata. Accordingly the objective of this paper is to implement CA method for trend detection of Tehran UHI spatiotemporal growth based on urban sprawl parameters (such as Distance to nearest road, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Slope and Aspect ratios). It should be mentioned that UHI growth modeling may have more complexities in comparison with urban expansion, since the amount of each pixel's temperature should be investigated instead of its state (urban and non-urban areas). The most challenging part of CA model is the definition of Transfer Rules. Here, two methods have used to find appropriate transfer Rules which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The reason of choosing these approaches is that artificial neural networks and support vector regression have significant abilities to handle the complications of such a spatial analysis in comparison with other methods like Genetic or Swarm intelligence. In this paper, UHI change trend has discussed between 1984 and 2007. For this purpose, urban sprawl parameters in 1984 have calculated and added to the retrieved LST of this year. In order to achieve LST, Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) night-time images have exploited. The reason of implementing night-time images is that UHI phenomenon is more obvious during night hours. After that multilayer feed-forward neural networks and support vector regression have used separately to find the relationship between this data and the retrieved LST in 2007. Since the transfer rules might not be the same in different regions, the satellite image of the city has

  15. The impact on chinese economic growth and energy consumption of the Global Financial Crisis: An input-output analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Chaoqing; Liu, Sifeng; Xie, Naiming

    2010-01-01

    The dependence on foreign trade increased sharply in China, and therefore Chinese economy is obviously export-oriented. The Global Financial Crisis will impact the Chinese economic growth violently. Chinese government has recently adopted some effective measures to fight against the Global Financial Crisis. The most important measure is the 4 trillion Yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan which was announced on November 9, 2008. This paper discusses the influence on energy consumption and economic growth of Global Financial Crisis and the stimulus plan against it by input-output analysis. The results show that the fall of exports caused by the Global Financial Crisis will lead to a decrease of 7.33% in GDP (Gross Domestic Production) and a reduction of 9.21% in energy consumption; the stimulus plan against the Global Financial Crisis will lead to an increase of 4.43% in economic growth and an increase of 1.83% in energy consumption; In the Global Financial Crisis, energy consumption per unit GDP will fall in China. (author)

  16. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model, we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

  17. The Urban Nexus: Contradictions and Dilemmas of (PostCommunist (SubUrbanization in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Dumitrache

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The process of urbanization in Romania was a very tumultuous and slightly different one compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, being marked by the constant willingness to increase the degree of urbanization. The communist period was the most significant from this point of view, by considering both the number of newly declared towns and urban population growth. The urbanization of communist era corroborated with the excessive and forced industrialization has generated imbalances in the urban system and created distortions in the urban hierarchy. However, the legislative inconsistency and the lack of urban regulations during the post – communist period have lead to the increasing number of new (quasi urban units (many of which without urban amenities to the chaotic sub-urbanization of cities and urban decline. In many cases, the ability of local authorities to manage the urban development in the early years of transition has been hampered by inadequate legislation that regulates the urban growth in a completely different socio-economic system. Thus, the lacks of specific urban policies and urban regeneration plans have determined indirectly a hypertrophic evolution and an uncontrolled suburban expansion. Bucharest, the capital of the country has been most affected by these processes determining multilayered space transformation within the city and open space conversion to commercial and residential use, both affecting the urban environment and quality of life of urban-rural communities. The paper focuses on the patterns, the driving forces and the consequences of two opposing processes: socialist forced urbanization vs. post-socialist chaotic urbanization unfolding across the national urban landscape.

  18. Impact of energy consumption on urban warming and air pollution in Tokyo metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.S.; Hoshi, H.

    1995-01-01

    The rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization due to economic growth and concentration of social function in the urban areas in Japan have had an adverse effect on the urban environment. In most cities, it has become evident that the increase in energy consumption is causing environmental problems, including a temperature rise in the urban atmosphere (urban heat island) and air pollution. This paper reports the results of field observations and three dimensional simulations of the urban heat island using a three-dimensional modelling vorticity-velocity vector potential formation, in the Tokyo metropolitan area. According to the simulation for urban warming in the study area for the year 2031, the maximum temperature of a summer evening (18:00) would exceed 43 degrees celsius, indicating that Tokyo would no longer be comfortable for its inhabitants. It is concluded that in the near future, the problem of the urban heat island will become a more important issue than that of global warming because the rate of urban warming is greater. For this reason, the urban heat island could be fatal to humans unless resolved in the near future. (author). 1 tab., 11 figs., 18 refs

  19. Ixodid Ticks (Acari, Ixodidae in Urban Landscapes. A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akimov I. А.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the results of content analysis of published works on ixodid ticks in urban conditions in order to determine the species diversity, the vectors of research interests at various stages. Information about ticks in the cities up to the 1980s is incidental, to the point of exclusive, after this point there is targeted research in urban landscapes. There are 106 or 15 % of hard ticks of the world fauna registered in the urban territory, 26 species or 3.7 % being the most abundant. Of the urban hard tick species, 23 (88.5 % can attack humans, and 12 species are the most adapted to the urban landscape: Ixodes ricinus, I. persulcatus, Dermacentor reticulatus, D. marginatus, I. pavlovskyi, I. scapularis (dammini, Amblyomma cajennense, Haemaphysalis longicornis, I. hexagonus, Hyalomma marginatum, Am. americanum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus. It was determined that the most likely causes of the growing number of publications on ixodids urban landscapes are: global accelerating urbanization, the development of recreational areas, the development of green tourism, the growth of the prestige of outdoor recreation, the creation of new, especially of the landscape parks and a tendency to preserve the native landscape in the cities, a significant increase in the density of populations of common species of hard ticks adapted to living in urban environment. The vectors of further work in urban landscapes will be directed to exact planning of monitoring studies of ixodids and associated tick-borne infections.

  20. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  1. The future of global urbanization and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rob McDonald; Burak Guneralp; Wayne Zipperer; Peter Marcotullio

    2014-01-01

    Using findings of the Cities and Biodiversity Outlook (CBO), we propose three specific solutions to mitigate the loss ofecosystem services and biodiversity in our urban and urbanizing landscapes. The CBO identified continued loss of criticalhabitats for biodiversity conservation and degradation of many important ecosystem services due to...

  2. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  3. Beyond urban penalty and urban sprawl: back to living conditions as the focus of urban health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freudenberg, Nicholas; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

    2005-02-01

    Researchers have long studied urban health, both to describe the consequences of urban living and to design interventions to promote the health of people living in cities. Two approaches to understanding the impact of cities on health have been dominant, namely, urban health penalty and urban sprawl. The urban penalty approach posits that cities concentrate poor people and expose them to unhealthy physical and social environments. Urban sprawl focuses on the adverse health and environmental effects of urban growth into outlying areas. We propose a model that integrates these approaches and emphasizes urban living conditions as the primary determinant of health. The aim of the model is to move beyond describing the health-related characteristics of various urban populations towards identifying opportunities for intervention. Such a shift in framework enables meaningful comparisons that can inform public health activities at the appropriate level and evaluate their effectiveness in improving the health of urban populations. The model is illustrated with two examples from current urban public health practice.

  4. Teaching method: ‘Integrative urban design game’ for soft urban regeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrđenović Tatjana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban regeneration is challenged by contradictory process of globalization. This double-sided process can enrich local communities or leave them at margins of global society. Regarding globalization, most authorities claim that urban planning and design are in paradigm crisis. The crisis is an announcement for paradigm shift that is in contemporary theoretical and conceptual frameworks. They give hope for the ‘light at the end of the tunnel’. Their common groundings are: ‘soft and hard infrastructure’; ‘agencies and structures’; ‘power to’; ‘new rationality’, ‘common sense’; ‘communicative action’; and ‘integrative development’. The purpose of the research is to discuss possibilities of teaching method ‘Integrative urban design game’ for soft urban regeneration, elaborating it with respect to the crisis in specific context of building bridges among academia and local communities regarding various teaching approaches. The method was innovated at the Faculty of Architecture in Belgrade and tested in Bač community. The hypothesis is that the method provides soft infrastructure for urban regeneration in local communities. The research will result in a form of principles the game should be grounded on, using participative mimicry model of present and future place for overcoming paradigm crisis. Methodological approach is based on theoretical comparison, case study, and questionnaires among stakeholders. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR 36035: Spatial, environmental, energy and social aspects of developing settlements and climate change - mutual impacts

  5. Growth and development in school-age children from Rostov region, Russia: Comparison between urban and rural settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voynov, V B; Kulba, S N; Arapova, Yu Yu

    2017-12-01

    The purposes of the current study were: (1) to describe growth and physical development and establish norms for schoolchildren from Rostov region in Russia; (2) to compare major characteristics of development between urban and rural children by sex and age. Nearly 200,000 children (198,712) aged between 7 and 17 years from 232 urban and rural schools of Rostov region (Southern Federal District of Russia) participated in the study. School age is a period of intensive growth and physiological and psychological development. Irregularities of personal development are caused by a multitude of factors, such as sex differences, heredity, socio-economic status of a family, standard of living, particular environmental conditions, and lifestyle. It has been established that children from the Southern Federal District of Russia had body mass index values higher than age-appropriate norms for all Russians (Total Russian, Rudnev et al., 2014) and World Health Organization charts. Children from urban settings were taller and heavier than children from rural settings. Sex is one of the most influential factors which play key role in determining specific characteristics of growth and personal development. According to our results, boys and girls both had similar age-related changes in weight and height, but their respective dynamics differed. Girls' height and weight values accelerated at the age 10 to 12 years and plateaued after the age fourteen, whereas in boys height and weight steadily increased with age, showing slight acceleration at the age 12 to 13 years, and reached a plateau by the age of seventeen. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  6. Examining the Link between Innovation, Productivity and Growth: a Global View

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinko Škare

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Innovation has long been recognized as one of the key elements of economic progress, though some say that its direct relation to the concept of economic growth remains rather controversial. Productivity growth is the key economic indicator of innovation, non-the-less. Growth theory assumes that changes in real output are result of technological shocks within the economy. Using ARIMA modelling techniques and Beveridge-Nelson univariate decomposition this paper estimates the impact of technological shocks on GDP, GDP per capita and labour productivity (long-term growth of OECDs` most developed countries. The study explores the global effects of the `third industrial revolution` for 25 OECD countries over 1950-2013 periods. The impact of innovations on growth differs in intensity and time among the countries. Measured impact of technological innovation on growth is significant, and it is expected to become even more significant in the future. Economic growth is riding on the technological innovation wave but for how long and how far it is uncertain if the `Great Decoupling` problem is to abound. Positive impact of technological innovation on growth and welfare is seriously risked by the high divergence and inequality arising from the Great decoupling problem.

  7. Urban agriculture: Rosario, Argentina reaps the benefits | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-10-06

    Oct 6, 2010 ... Urban agriculture: Rosario, Argentina reaps the benefits ... Urban agriculture has become a permanent part of the city's fabric, ... The Global Roundtable of Chief Economists highlights global trends and best practices to help ...

  8. Computing Pathways for Urban Decarbonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Sommer, P.

    2016-12-01

    Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society. Urban expansion and related transportation needs lead to increased energy use, and to carbon-intensive lock-ins that create barriers for climate change mitigation globally. The authors present the Integrated Urban Complexity (IUC) model, based on self-organizing Cellular Automata (CA), and use it to produce a new kind of spatially explicit Transformation Pathways for Urban Decarbonization (TPUD). IUC is based on statistical evidence relating the energy needed for transportation with the spatial distribution of population, specifically IUC incorporates variables from complexity science related to urban form, like the slope of the rank-size rule or spatial entropy, which brings IUC a step beyond existing models. The CA starts its evolution with real-world urban land use and population distribution data from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Thus, the IUC model runs over existing urban settlements, transforming the spatial distribution of population so the energy consumption for transportation is minimized. The statistical evidence that governs the evolution of the CA departs from the database of the International Association of Public Transport. A selected case is presented using Stuttgart (Germany) as an example. The results show how IUC varies urban density in those places where it improves the performance of crucial parameters related to urban form, producing a TPUD that shows where the spatial distribution of population should be modified with a degree of detail of 250 meters of cell size. The TPUD shows how the urban complex system evolves over time to minimize energy consumption for transportation. The resulting dynamics or urban decarbonization show decreased energy per capita, although total energy increases for increasing population. The results provide innovative insights: by checking current urban planning against a TPUD, urban

  9. Discovery of Transition Rules for Cellular Automata Using Artificial Bee Colony and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms in Urban Growth Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fereydoun Naghibi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced method in urban growth modeling to discover transition rules of cellular automata (CA using the artificial bee colony (ABC optimization algorithm. Also, comparisons between the simulation results of CA models optimized by the ABC algorithm and the particle swarm optimization algorithms (PSO as intelligent approaches were performed to evaluate the potential of the proposed methods. According to previous studies, swarm intelligence algorithms for solving optimization problems such as discovering transition rules of CA in land use change/urban growth modeling can produce reasonable results. Modeling of urban growth as a dynamic process is not straightforward because of the existence of nonlinearity and heterogeneity among effective involved variables which can cause a number of challenges for traditional CA. ABC algorithm, the new powerful swarm based optimization algorithms, can be used to capture optimized transition rules of CA. This paper has proposed a methodology based on remote sensing data for modeling urban growth with CA calibrated by the ABC algorithm. The performance of ABC-CA, PSO-CA, and CA-logistic models in land use change detection is tested for the city of Urmia, Iran, between 2004 and 2014. Validations of the models based on statistical measures such as overall accuracy, figure of merit, and total operating characteristic were made. We showed that the overall accuracy of the ABC-CA model was 89%, which was 1.5% and 6.2% higher than those of the PSO-CA and CA-logistic model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement (simulation error of the simulation results for the ABC-CA, PSO-CA, and CA-logistic models are 11%, 12.5%, and 17.2%, respectively. Finally, for all evaluation indices including running time, convergence capability, flexibility, statistical measurements, and the produced spatial patterns, the ABC-CA model performance showed relative improvement and therefore its superiority was

  10. Urban Ideas From Around the World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Liansheng

    2010-01-01

    @@ The Urban Best Practices Area (UBPA) of the World Expo in Shanghai aims to introduce various ongoing practices designed to improve the quality of urban life as global urbanization increases,and provide a platform for all the cities of the world to share and exchange experiences in urban management and development.

  11. Urbanization and Condition of Urban Slums in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Digambar Abaji Chimankar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper attempted to study the urbanization in India and condition of urban slums in terms of water, sanitation, electricity, garbage collection and health care, and education which are supposed to be basic minimum needs for the slum dwellers. India is going through the process of rapid urbanization because of industrialization like other third world countries.  The percent of urbanization increase from 27.8 percent in 2001 to 31.1 percent in 2011 census. The increase in the percentage of population in urban areas is because of natural growth, rural to urban migration and the reclassification of village and towns. The share of the slum population in the total urban population of the country was 18.3 percent in 2001 while in 2011 it was 17.4 percent. The condition of urban slums in India is to be improved so as to make them better for living.

  12. Strategies for sustainable urban development and urban-rural linkages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, K.; Sick Nielsen, T.; Aalbers, C.B.E.M.; Bell, S.; Boitier, B.; Chery, J.P.; Fertner, C.; Groschowski, M.; Haase, D.; Loibl, W.; Pauleit, S.; Pintar, M.; Piorr, A.; Ravetz, J.; Ristimäki, M.; Rounsevell, M.; Tosics, I.; Westerink, J.; Zasada, I.

    2014-01-01

    An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the

  13. A temperature and vegetation adjusted NTL urban index for urban area mapping and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiya; Li, Peijun

    2018-01-01

    Accurate and timely information regarding the extent and spatial distribution of urban areas on regional and global scales is crucially important for both scientific and policy-making communities. Stable nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) provides a unique proxy of human settlement and activity, which has been used in the mapping and analysis of urban areas and urbanization dynamics. However, blooming and saturation effects of DMSP/OLS NTL data are two unresolved problems in regional urban area mapping and analysis. This study proposed a new urban index termed the Temperature and Vegetation Adjusted NTL Urban Index (TVANUI). It is intended to reduce blooming and saturation effects and to enhance urban features by combining DMSP/OLS NTL data with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Terra satellite. The proposed index was evaluated in two study areas by comparison with established urban indices. The results demonstrated the proposed TVANUI was effective in enhancing the variation of DMSP/OLS light in urban areas and in reducing blooming and saturation effects, showing better performance than three established urban indices. The TVANUI also significantly outperformed the established urban indices in urban area mapping using both the global-fixed threshold and the local-optimal threshold methods. Thus, the proposed TVANUI provides a useful variable for urban area mapping and analysis on regional scale, as well as for urbanization dynamics using time-series DMSP/OLS and related satellite data.

  14. Self-organized criticality and urban development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Batty

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban society is undergoing as profound a spatial transformation as that associated with the emergence of the industrial city two centuries ago. To describe and measure this transition, we introduce a new theory based on the concept that large-scale, complex systems composed of many interacting elements, show a surprising degree of resilience to change, holding themselves at critical levels for long periods until conditions emerge which move the system, often abruptly, to a new threshold. This theory is called ‘self-organized criticality’; it is consistent with systems in which global patterns emerge from local action which is the hallmark of self-organization, and it is consistent with developments in system dynamics and their morphology which find expression in fractal geometry and weak chaos theory. We illustrate the theory using a unique space–time series of urban development for Buffalo, Western New York, which contains the locations of over one quarter of a million sites coded by their year of construction and dating back to 1773, some 60 years before the city began to develop. We measure the emergence and growth of the city using urban density functions from which measures of fractal dimension are used to construct growth paths of the way the city has grown to fill its region. These phase portraits suggest the existence of transitions between the frontier, the settled agricultural region, the centralized industrial city and the decentralized postindustrial city, and our analysis reveals that Buffalo has maintained itself at a critical threshold since the emergence of the automobile city some 70 years ago. Our implied speculation is: how long will this kind of urban form be maintained in the face of seemingly unstoppable technological change?

  15. Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21(st) Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubler, Duane J

    2011-12-01

    Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world's population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

  16. Strengthening Rural-Urban Interactions as a Contemporary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    finance through remittances as well as the flow of goods and services between rural and urban ... of the South-West Region of Cameroon as a case study. ..... major areas of interest within the Kumba urban area were the urban market, cash ... This study makes use of two main concepts – the Growth Pole and Growth.

  17. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

    2007-08-28

    Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  18. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madise Nyovani

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Since the 1990s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Methods Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Results Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Conclusion Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status – which is an MDG target itself – may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  19. A Regional Spatial-Retrofitting Approach (RSRA to Geovisualise Regional Urban Growth: An application to the Golden Horseshoe in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Vaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding urban change in particular for larger regions has been a great demur in both regional planning and geography. One of the main challenges has been linked to the potential of modelling urban change. The absence of spatial data and size of areas of study limit the traditional urban monitoring approaches, which also do not take into account visualization techniques that share information with the community. This is the case of the Golden Horseshoe in southern Ontario in Canada, one of the fastest growing regions in North America. An unprecedented change on the urban environment has been witnessed, leading to an increased importance of awareness for future planning in the region. With a population greater than 8 million, the Golden Horseshoe is steadily showing symptoms of becoming a mega-urban region, joining surrounding cities into a single and diversified urban landscape. However, little effort has been done to understand these changes, nor to share information with policy makers, stakeholders and investors. These players are in need of the most diverse information on urban land use, which is seldom available from a single source. The spatio-temporal effect of the growth of this urban region could very well be the birth of yet another North American megacity. Therefore, from a spatial perspective there is demand for joint collaboration and adoption of a regional science perspective including land cover and spatio-temporal configurations. This calls forth a novel technique that allows for assessment of urban and regional change, and supports decision-making without having the usual concerns of locational data availability. It is this sense, that we present a spatial-retrofitting model, with the objective of (i retrofitting spatial land use based on current land use and land cover, and assessing proportional change in the past, leading to four spatial timestamps of the Golden Horseshoe’s land use, while (ii integrating this in a

  20. Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leduc, Wouter R. W. A.; Van Kann, Ferry M. G.

    The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

  1. Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leduc, W.R.W.A.; Kann, van F.M.G.

    2013-01-01

    The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

  2. How Did Urban Land Expand in China between 1992 and 2015? A Multi-Scale Landscape Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Min; He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Dou, Yinyin

    2016-01-01

    Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth-infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog-edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China.

  3. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  4. Urbanization in contemporary Arab Gulf states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qutub, I Y

    1983-01-01

    Urbanization in the Arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is analyzed. Topics discussed include the historical background to urbanization; current demographic trends in the region; urban characteristics and growth; socioeconomic factors influencing urbanization, with an emphasis on labor force structure; future urban strategy; and the need for urban research.

  5. [Experiences of the urbanization process in Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez Tirado, N

    1985-01-01

    The process of urbanization and urban growth in relation to economic development in Venezuela is analyzed. Four periods are considered: the period prior to the discovery of oil in Venezuela, which ended in the early 1940s; from the 1940s to the early 1970s; from the 1970s to 1983; and the present. Information is provided for the period 1936-1981 on total and urban population growth and on the size and number of urban centers.

  6. Filling some black holes: modeling the connection between urbanization, infrastructure, and global service intensity in 112 metropolitan regions across the world

    OpenAIRE

    Van De Vijver, Elien; Derudder, Ben; Bassens, David; Witlox, Frank

    2012-01-01

    This empirical article combines insights from previous research on the level of knowledge-intensive service in metropolitan areas with the aim to develop an understanding of the spatial structure of the global service economy. We use a stepwise regression model with GaWC’s measure of globalized service provisioning as the dependent variable and a range of variables focusing on population, infrastructure, urban primacy, and national regulation as independent variables. The discussion of the re...

  7. India's Urban war: Through the Smoke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaur, Ravinder

    2008-01-01

    The assimilation of India's urban terror attacks into a global narrative of Islamist violence carries the danger that their domestic social and historical roots will be missed, says Ravinder Kaur.......The assimilation of India's urban terror attacks into a global narrative of Islamist violence carries the danger that their domestic social and historical roots will be missed, says Ravinder Kaur....

  8. Smart Growth for a Sustainable Urban Environment - Concepts and Practice in US and China (CLASS PRESENTATION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is an invited seminar to a class of undergraduate and graduate students at DAAP of the University of Cincinnati. It provides students the concepts and trends in smart growth and sustainable urban development in U.S. and China. The materials are drawn from my research and m...

  9. Urban forest biomass estimates: is it important to use allometric relationships developed specifically for urban trees? 

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.R. McHale; I.C. Burke; M.A. Lefsky; P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson

    2009-01-01

    Many studies have analyzed the benefits, costs, and carbon storage capacity associated with urban trees. These studies have been limited by a lack of research on urban tree biomass, such that estimates of carbon storage in urban systems have relied upon allometric relationships developed in traditional forests. As urbanization increases globally, it is becoming...

  10. Traffic-related air pollution and allergic disease: an update in the context of global urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsten, Christopher; Rider, Christopher F

    2017-04-01

    The review aims to give an update on the literature around traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and allergic disease in the context of global urbanization, as the most populous countries in the world face severe TRAP exposure challenges. As research continues to show that gene-environment interactions and epigenetics contribute to the TRAP-allergy link, evidence around the links to climate change grows. Greenspace may provide a buffer to adverse effects of traffic on health, overall, but pose risks in terms of allergic disease. The link between traffic-related pollution and allergy continues to strengthen, in terms of supportive observational findings and mechanistic studies. Levels of TRAP across the world, particularly in Asia, continue to dramatically exceed acceptable levels, suggesting that the related adverse health consequences will accelerate. This could be counterbalanced by primary emission control and urban planning. Attention to combined effects of TRAP and allergen exposure is critical to avoiding misleading inferences drawn though examination only of isolated factors.

  11. A critical knowledge pathway to a sustainable future in an urbanizing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Lankao, P.

    2014-12-01

    The pace and scale of contemporary urbanization is a defining feature of the Anthropocene, which characterizes the dominance of human influence on the global environment. Although urban areas occupy less than three percent of the global land surface, they have global-scale impacts on natural resources, social dynamics, human wellbeing and the environment. The global environmental changes already underway are profound and in some ways irreversible. Altogether, these have serious implications for future human and environmental health, and social wellbeing. Despite considerable research and policy attention to cities, efforts are strongly needed towards integration that builds upon this and facilitates intensive interactions among disciplines in developing new perspectives, theory and methods for understanding urbanizations and urban systems as they drive and are affected by global environmental change, and for exploring options to achieve sustainability and resilience in an urbanizing world. I will present initial outcomes from a 2014 NSF/Future Earth-funded activity to develop a co-designed and interdisciplinary urban initiative within the Future Earth framework. The complexity of urban systems and the global sustainability challenges we face require inter- and trans-disciplinary research approaches that adopt a contextual approach to finding solutions. I will synthesize perspectives spanning multiple urban research and practice communities from workshops that took place over 2014 including the 2104 UGEC Conference, where emphasis was given to exploring: knowledge gaps and key urban research and socially-relevant questions moving forward; major challenges and opportunities for developing conceptual and methodological frameworks that support the global transformation to sustainability in the context of an urbanizing planet; operational mechanisms that must be in place for a successful interdisciplinary urban project that fits within Future Earth.

  12. Navigating Troubled Waters. An analysis of how urban water regimes in the global South reproduce inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Nastar, Maryam

    2014-01-01

    This research is an attempt to conceptualize the underlying forces behind persistent and ubiquitous problems of inequality in access to water in cities of the global south. Inequality in water access is hypothesized to result from urban water regimes that tend to prioritize the right to water access or to provide preferential terms of access for some groups in society, while marginalizing others. By employing a critical realist approach, different theories in relation to inequality are app...

  13. India in the urban revolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, J.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, India’s development has featured rapid economic growth and unprecedented urbanization. Using preliminary results from the 2011 Census and recent macro-economic data, this paper analyses the relationship between urbanization and economic development in India. While urbanization is

  14. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Wolff

    Full Text Available Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (dedensification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

  15. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

    2018-01-01

    Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. PMID:29489851

  16. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

    2018-01-01

    Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

  17. Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

  18. Interconnecting Urban Planning with Multi-Scale Urban Quality : Review of Macro Scale Urban Redevelopment Project on Micro Scale Urban Quality in Shenzhen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, X.

    2015-01-01

    The Shenzhen planning system has been effective in promoting economic growth through the prodigious urbanization of land. It has given priority to the ‘macro-level’ planning goals of economic growth through physical development. Questions can be raised about the physical and social outcomes from the

  19. Medan City: Informality and the Historical Global City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudarmadji, N.; Tyaghita, B.; Astuti, P. T.; Etleen, D.

    2018-05-01

    As projected by UN that two-thirds of Indonesia’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, rapid urbanization is happening in Indonesian cities. Initial research on eight Indonesian Cities (which includes Medan, Jatinegara, Bandung, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Manado) by Tunas Nusa Foundation since 2012 shows that urbanization of each city has happened throughout history creating cultural, economic, and environmental networks that are distinct from one city to another. While the networks remain until today and continuously shapes the urban agglomeration pattern, not all parts of the city could undergo subsequent development that confirms the existing pattern, leading to the creation informality. Nor could it make future planning that comprehends the nature of its integrated urban dynamic beyond its current administrative authority. In this paper, we would like to share our study for Medan, North Sumatra as it shows a portrait of a city with a long relationship to a global network since the Maritime trade era. Medan has become home to many ethnic groups which have sailed and migrated as part of a global economic agenda creating a strong economic network between port cities along the Malacca Strait. The city has kept its role in the global economic network until today, to name a few, becoming the frontier for the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle. While we celebrate Medan’s potential to become a global city with major infrastructure development as well as cultural assets as its advantage in the future, we argue that microscale cohesion supported by government policy in agreed planning documents are fundamental for the city to thrive amidst the challenges it is facing. Yet, these cultural assets, as well as micro scale cohesion in Medan City today, are still undermined. Thus, informality in Medan exists as result of ignorance and marginalization of certain socio-cultural groups, abandoning places and identity, as well as the

  20. Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Zeug

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

  1. Analyzing the Effects of Spatial Interaction among City Clusters on Urban Growth—Case of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronghui Tan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available For the past two decades, China’s urbanization has attracted increasing attention from scholars around the world. Numerous insightful studies have attempted to determine the socioeconomic causes of the rapid urban growth in Chinese cities. However, most of these studies regarded each city as a single entity, with few considering inter-city relationships. The present study uses a gravity-based model to measure the spatial interaction among city clusters in the Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA, which is one of China’s most rapidly urbanizing regions. The effects of spatial interaction on urban growth area were also analyzed. Empirical results indicate that, similar to urban population or employment in secondary and tertiary industries in the WUA from 2000 to 2005, the spatial interaction among city clusters is one of the main drivers of urban growth. In fact, this study finds the effects of spatial interaction as the only socioeconomic factor that affected the spatial expansion from 2005 to 2010. This finding suggests that population migration and information and commodity flows showed greater influence than the socioeconomic drivers of each city did on promoting urbanization in the WUA during this period. We thus argue that spatial interaction among city clusters should be a consideration in future regional planning.

  2. Urban Growth Areas, This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area is a concept used by the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the population, land area and population density of a built-up or continuously deve, Published in 2000, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Urban Growth Areas dataset current as of 2000. This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area...

  3. Global health and development: conceptualizing health between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowy, Iris

    2013-07-01

    After World War II, health was firmly integrated into the discourse about national development. Transition theories portrayed health improvements as part of an overall development pattern based on economic growth as modeled by the recent history of industrialization in high-income countries. In the 1970s, an increasing awareness of the environmental degradation caused by industrialization challenged the conventional model of development. Gradually, it became clear that health improvements depended on poverty-reduction strategies including industrialization. Industrialization, in turn, risked aggravating environmental degradation with its negative effects on public health. Thus, public health in low-income countries threatened to suffer from lack of economic development as well as from the results of global economic development. Similarly, demands of developing countries risked being trapped between calls for global wealth redistribution, a political impossibility, and calls for unrestricted material development, which, in a world of finite land, water, air, energy, and resources, increasingly looked like a physical impossibility, too. Various international bodies, including the WHO, the Brundtland Commission, and the World Bank, tried to capture the problem and solution strategies in development theories. Broadly conceived, two models have emerged: a "localist model," which analyzes national health data and advocates growth policies with a strong focus on poverty reduction, and a "globalist" model, based on global health data, which calls for growth optimization, rather than maximization. Both models have focused on different types of health burdens and have received support from different institutions. In a nutshell, the health discourse epitomized a larger controversy regarding competing visions of development.

  4. Organic pollution of rivers: Combined threats of urbanization, livestock farming and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-02-23

    Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. We quantify here for the first time the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we calculate historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD >5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, our results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.

  5. Organic pollution of rivers: Combined threats of urbanization, livestock farming and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-02-01

    Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. We quantify here for the first time the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we calculate historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD >5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, our results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.

  6. Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, R

    1996-12-01

    This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

  7. Green infrastructure and urban sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagishima, Aya

    2018-02-01

    Temperature increase in urban areas due to the urban heat island as well as the global climate change inevitably raises the peak load supply for space cooling as well as the risk of heat-related illness in hot climate. This paper provides the comprehensive review of the thermal mitigation effect of urban vegetation based on the field observations.

  8. Urbanization and Structural Transformation

    OpenAIRE

    Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population growth for cities - Gibrat's Law and a stable population distribution - are strongly rejected when both rural and urban areas are considered. Population growth exhibits a U-shaped relationship with initial population density, and only becomes uncorrelated with initial population...

  9. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  10. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  11. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  12. Urbanization and Sub-urbanization Processes Over Time and Space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obudho, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    Until recently, it was thought that Kenya would be an overwhelmingly rural country and that urbanization would not be a problem, because it was associated with modernization and industrialization. Both Government of Kenya (GoK) and international donor agencies fostered rural developmental and agricultural-based strategies without paying attention to rapid rates of urbanization. Today, the high rate of urbanization in Kenya has been added to the long list of potentially devastating development problems that must be addressed. The fundamental problem is that, the urban population is growing very fast while the economic growth and development transformations necessary to support it enhance the quality of urban life are not occurring as rapidly. The new planning strategy for Kenya is to move beyond isolated projects, that emphasize shelter and residential infrastructure towards integrated urban-wide effort that promote urban productivity and reduce constraints on efficiency

  13. Trends in Urbanization and Implications for Peri-Urban Livelihoods in Accra, Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adom, Cynthia

    Urbanization is a common occurrence in both developed and developing worlds. Similar to occurrences in other developing world cities, Accra's urbanization is marked by fast, unplanned and uneven growth into mostly peripheral lands (Grant and Yankson 2002; Yeboah 2001; Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) 2002). Such trends in urbanization in places where data on the urbanization process is seriously inadequate and infrequent, (Rakodi 1997a; Ohadika 1991; Fasona and Omojola 2004) pose a major challenge to urban planning and management (Henderson 2002), and affect the livelihood base of several peri-urban households. Properly monitoring the urbanization process in the developing world and understanding its effects on people's lives depends on the availability of useful and up-to- date data (Weber and Puissant 2003; Mundia and Aniya 2006) that could be obtained using new and robust analytical techniques (Yang 2003). In addition, in the urban environment, differences in rates of urbanization, income, employment status, and gender dynamics across neighborhoods suggest that the impacts of increasing urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are likely to vary across peoples and places. Against this backdrop, this dissertation uses Accra as a case study to, first, measures the nature and extent of urban expansion using a non-conventional technique, and then analyzes neighborhood - and gender-differentiated impacts of increasing urbanization on household livelihoods in peri-urban Accra. Study findings reveal: 1) major conversion of vegetated land to urban lands uses and support the effectiveness of the Self-Organizing Map and Landsat data to map complex and hazy urban tropical environments; 2) that the impacts of urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are structured along the lines of neighborhood-level urbanization; changes brought by a higher rate of urbanization are more beneficial than harmful to household livelihoods; 3) that positive livelihood outcomes in high-growth

  14. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  15. A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

    2018-02-01

    This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

  16. The astysphere and urban geochemistry-a new approach to integrate urban systems into the geoscientific concept of spheres and a challenging concept of modern geochemistry supporting the sustainable development of planet earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norra, Stefan

    2009-07-01

    In 1875, the geoscientist Walter Suess introduced several spheres, such as the lithosphere and the atmosphere to promote a comprehensive understanding of the system earth. Since then, this idea became the dominating concept for the understanding of the distribution of chemical elements in the system earth. Meanwhile, due to the importance of human beings on global element fluxes, the term anthroposphere was introduced. Nevertheless, in face of the ongoing urbanization of the earth, this concept is not any more adequate enough to develop a comprehensive understanding of global element fluxes in and between solid, liquid, and gaseous phases. This article discusses a new concept integrating urbanization into the geoscientific concept of spheres. No geological exogenic force has altered the earth's surface during the last centuries in such an extent as human activity. Humans have altered the morphology and element balances of the earth by establishing agrosystems first and urban systems later. Currently, urban systems happen to become the main regulators for fluxes of many elements on a global scale due to ongoing industrial and economic development and a growing number of inhabitants. Additionally, urban systems are constantly expanding and cover more and more former natural and agricultural areas. For nature, urban systems are new phenomena, which never existed in previous geological eras. The process of the globe's urbanization concurrently is active with the global climate change. In fact, urban systems are a major emitter for climate active gases. Thus, beside the global changes in economy and society, urbanization is an important factor within the global change of nature as is already accepted for climate, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Due to the fact that urbanization has become a global process shaping the earth and that the urban systems are globally cross-linked among each other, a new geoscientific sphere has to be introduced: the astysphere. This sphere

  17. Nutritional psychiatry research: an emerging discipline and its intersection with global urbanization, environmental challenges and the evolutionary mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Alan C; Jacka, Felice N

    2014-07-24

    In 21st-century public health, rapid urbanization and mental health disorders are a growing global concern. The relationship between diet, brain function and the risk of mental disorders has been the subject of intense research in recent years. In this review, we examine some of the potential socioeconomic and environmental challenges detracting from the traditional dietary patterns that might otherwise support positive mental health. In the context of urban expansion, climate change, cultural and technological changes and the global industrialization and ultraprocessing of food, findings related to nutrition and mental health are connected to some of the most pressing issues of our time. The research is also of relevance to matters of biophysiological anthropology. We explore some aspects of a potential evolutionary mismatch between our ancestral past (Paleolithic, Neolithic) and the contemporary nutritional environment. Changes related to dietary acid load, advanced glycation end products and microbiota (via dietary choices and cooking practices) may be of relevance to depression, anxiety and other mental disorders. In particular, the results of emerging studies demonstrate the importance of prenatal and early childhood dietary practices within the developmental origins of health and disease concept. There is still much work to be done before these population studies and their mirrored advances in bench research can provide translation to clinical medicine and public health policy. However, the clear message is that in the midst of a looming global epidemic, we ignore nutrition at our peril.

  18. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  19. Urban transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernstson, Henrik; van der Leeuw, Sander E; Redman, Charles L; Meffert, Douglas J; Davis, George; Alfsen, Christine; Elmqvist, Thomas

    2010-12-01

    Urbanization is a global multidimensional process paired with increasing uncertainty due to climate change, migration of people, and changes in the capacity to sustain ecosystem services. This article lays a foundation for discussing transitions in urban governance, which enable cities to navigate change, build capacity to withstand shocks, and use experimentation and innovation in face of uncertainty. Using the three concrete case cities--New Orleans, Cape Town, and Phoenix--the article analyzes thresholds and cross-scale interactions, and expands the scale at which urban resilience has been discussed by integrating the idea from geography that cities form part of "system of cities" (i.e., they cannot be seen as single entities). Based on this, the article argues that urban governance need to harness social networks of urban innovation to sustain ecosystem services, while nurturing discourses that situate the city as part of regional ecosystems. The article broadens the discussion on urban resilience while challenging resilience theory when addressing human-dominated ecosystems. Practical examples of harnessing urban innovation are presented, paired with an agenda for research and policy.

  20. Strategies for Urbanization and Economic Competitiveness in Burundi

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2015-01-01

    This report argues that urbanization brings significant opportunities for both rural and urban areas and that Burundi needs to prioritize issues of economic growth and job creation. Based on a diagnostic evaluation of the current urbanization and spatial growth, GDP, and job potential, the report highlights the importance of prioritizing policies and investments to address deficiencies in ...

  1. Sustainable energy supply - a key to global growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, J.K.

    2002-01-01

    From this overall concept of what constitutes sustainability, a range of considerations on equity of energy supply across regions, time scales over which fuel and energy source mixes and technology changes and the like, can be developed. Within the spatial dimension, considerations of sustainability that operate at the global scale need to be translated to the operations of large and small companies, national and local governments down to individual households. It is a complex mix in an increasingly complex world. But one thing is certain, the world's energy demand is going to continue to increase. This demand will be largely satisfied by fossil fuels and this use is not sustainable using current technology in the long term. Massive changes are required to turn the world around onto a more sustainable pathway that will probably take many decades even to make a significant start. The aim of this paper is to briefly explore some of the possible technological options that will guide us on the road to a more sustainable energy future. A genuinely sustainable energy system that also promotes sustainable growth with an improving standard of living for all is obviously a major challenge. At the same time the global demand for energy will continue to increase. On the global scale, the prospect of climate change imposes a major long-term constraint on the use of GHG emitting fuels and generating technologies. The long-term development of a sustainable energy system will require multiple interventions and a pluralistic approach to energy management. Ingredients within the mix are likely to require: 1. innovation in the way we currently generate and supply power 2. continued integration and greater penetration of renewables 3. greater use of embedded and distributed energy generation 4. aggressive end-use efficiency 5. development of technologies to enable continued use of fossil fuels until the transition to sustainability is completed. A combination of market and regulatory

  2. Urban transitions: On urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Ernstson H.; Leeuw S.E.V.D.; Redman C.L.; Meffert D.J.; Davis G.; Alfsen C.; Elmqvist T.

    2010-01-01

    Urbanization is a global multidimensional process paired with increasing uncertainty due to climate change, migration of people, and changes in the capacity to sustain ecosystem services. This article lays a foundation for discussing transitions in urban governance, which enable cities to navigate change, build capacity to withstand shocks, and use experimentation and innovation in face of uncertainty. Using the three concrete case cities—New Orleans, Cape Town, and Phoenix—the article analyz...

  3. Using Parametrics to Facilitate Collaborative Urban Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinø, Nicolai; Benbih, Karima; Obeling, Esben

    2013-01-01

    in the context of the urban South which is characterized by high urban growth rates, weak planning systems and modest means. The current state of planning and urban development in Morocco is introduced as a context for discussing collaborative urban design and parametric urban design, and some tentative...

  4. Global patterns and clines in the growth of common carp Cyprinus carpio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilizzi, L; Copp, G H

    2017-07-01

    This review provides a meta-analytical assessment of the global patterns and clines in the growth of Cyprinus carpio as measured by length-at-age (L t ) or von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters, mass-length relationship (W-L t ) and condition factor, based on literature data. In total, 284 studies were retrieved spanning 91 years of research and carried out on 381 waterbodies-locations in 50 countries in all five continents. Although native C. carpio achieved larger (asymptotic) size relative to its non-native counterpart, the latter grew faster during the first 7 years of life. Lentic populations (especially in natural lakes) also achieved larger sizes relative to lotic ones and the same was true for populations in cold and temperate v. arid climates. Unlike previous studies (on much more restricted datasets), only weak latitudinal clines in instantaneous growth rate, L t at age 3 and mortality were observed globally and this was probably due to the presence of counter-gradient growth variation at all representative age classes (i.e. 1-10 years). Slightly negative allometry was revealed by the W-L t and the related form factor tended to distinguish the more elongated and torpedo-shaped body typical of the wild form from the deeper body of feral-domesticated C. carpio. Existing population dynamics models for C. carpio will benefit from the comprehensive range of waterbody type × climate class-specific VBGF parameters provided in the present study; whereas, more studies are needed on the species' growth in tropical regions and to unravel the possibility of confounding effects on age estimation due to both historical and methodological reasons. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  5. Resource management as a key factor for sustainable urban planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agudelo-Vera, Claudia M; Mels, Adriaan R; Keesman, Karel J; Rijnaarts, Huub H M

    2011-10-01

    Due to fast urbanization and increasing living standards, the environmental sustainability of our global society becomes more and more questionable. In this historical review we investigate the role of resources management (RM) and urban planning (UP) and propose ways for integration in sustainable development (SD). RM follows the principle of circular causation, and we reflect on to what extent RM has been an element for urban planning. Since the existence of the first settlements, a close relationship between RM, urbanization and technological development has been present. RM followed the demand for urban resources like water, energy, and food. In history, RM has been fostered by innovation and technology developments and has driven population growth and urbanization. Recent massive resource demand, especially in relation to energy and material flows, has altered natural ecosystems and has resulted in environmental degradation. UP has developed separately in response to different questions. UP followed the demand for improved living conditions, often associated to safety, good manufacturing and trading conditions and appropriate sanitation and waste management. In history UP has been a developing research area, especially since the industrial era and the related strong urbanization at the end of the 18th century. UP responded to new emerging problems in urban areas and became increasingly complex. Nowadays, UP has to address many objectives that are often conflicting, including, the urban sustainability. Our current urban un-sustainability is rooted in massive resource consumption and waste production beyond natural limits, and the absence of flows from waste to resources. Therefore, sustainable urban development requires integration of RM into UP. We propose new ways to this integration. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meineke, Emily; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

    2016-01-01

    sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because...... photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem service assessments that do not consider urban conditions may overestimate urban tree carbon storage. Because urban and global warming are becoming more intense, our results suggest that urban trees will sequester even less carbon in the future....

  7. "Global Cities" and "Globalization" in East Asia: Empirical Realities and Conceptual Questions

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, David; Timberlake, Michael

    2002-01-01

    For most of the Twentieth Century, East Asia was among the least urbanized parts of the world; now it is a region where cities are growing the most rapidly and becoming increasingly important centers regionally and in terms of the global urban hierarchy. Tokyo is unquestionably a key "global city," with Hong Kong probably following not far behind, and Seoul and Taipei also moving up in the world city ranks as crucial national articulates of highly successful newly industrialized countries (N...

  8. Slumdog cities: rethinking subaltern urbanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Ananya

    2011-01-01

    This article is an intervention in the epistemologies and methodologies of urban studies. It seeks to understand and transform the ways in which the cities of the global South are studied and represented in urban research, and to some extent in popular discourse. As such, the article is primarily concerned with a formation of ideas - "subaltern urbanism" - which undertakes the theorization of the megacity and its subaltern spaces and subaltern classes. Of these, the ubiquitous ‘slum’ is the most prominent. Writing against apocalyptic and dystopian narratives of the slum, subaltern urbanism provides accounts of the slum as a terrain of habitation, livelihood, self-organization and politics. This is a vital and even radical challenge to dominant narratives of the megacity. However, this article is concerned with the limits of and alternatives to subaltern urbanism. It thus highlights emergent analytical strategies, utilizing theoretical categories that transcend the familiar metonyms of underdevelopment such as the megacity, the slum, mass politics and the habitus of the dispossessed. Instead, four categories are discussed — peripheries, urban informality, zones of exception and gray spaces. Informed by the urbanism of the global South, these categories break with ontological and topological understandings of subaltern subjects and subaltern spaces.

  9. Vivid valleys, pallid peaks? Hypsometric variations and rural-urban land change in the Central Peruvian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Andreas

    2012-11-01

    What happens to the land cover within the hinterland's altitudinal belts while Central Andean cities are undergoing globalization and urban restructuring? What conclusions can be drawn about changes in human land use? By incorporating a regional altitudinal zonation model, direct field observations and GIS analyses of remotely sensed long term data, the present study examines these questions using the example of Huancayo Metropolitano - an emerging Peruvian mountain city of 420,000 inhabitants, situated at 3260 m asl in the Mantaro Valley. The study's results indicate that rapid urban growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s was followed by the agricultural intensification and peri-urban condominization at the valley floor ( quechua ) - since the beginning of Peru's neoliberal era. Moreover, regarding the adjoining steep slopes ( suni ) and subsequent grassland ecosystems ( puna ), the research output presents land cover change trajectories that clearly show an expansion of human land use, such as reforestation for wood production and range burning for livestock grazing, even at high altitudes - despite rural-urban migration trends and contrary to several results of extra-Andean studies. Consequently, rural-urban planners and policy makers are challenged to focus on the manifold impacts of globalization on human land use - at all altitudinal belts of the Andean city's hinterland: toward sustainable mountain development that bridges the social and physical gaps - from the bottom up.

  10. Developing green infrastructure design guidelines for urban climate adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klemm, Wiebke; Lenzholzer, Sanda; Brink, van den Adri

    2017-01-01

    In the context of global warming and increasing urban climate problems, urban green spaces and elements have been recognized as a strategy for urban climate adaptation. Yet, despite increasing scientific evidence of the positive impacts that urban green infrastructure (UGI) is having on the urban

  11. Urban Transport and Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irandu, E.M.

    1999-01-01

    The population according to the 1989 census was 21,448,774 inhabitants. This figure shows that on average the total population has been increasing by more than 40% every decade since 1948. As a result the widening gap between fertility and mortality, the population is growing at an accelerated rate. The current official population growth rate figure of 3.4% per annum puts the country among the world's most rapidly growing nations. It is projected that by the year 2010, the population will be about 37.4 million. At present the urban centres with a population size of 2,000 people and above constitute about 18.1% of the total population (Kenya, 1994). Rapid economic growth has led to the development of a number of urban centres as centres of commerce, industry and tourism. Consequently, this has led to rural urban drift. This drift to urban areas causes a number of problems which if unresolved will limit the ability of the urban centres to support their population The rapid increase in urban population causes a shortage of facilities to meet the increasing demand in services such as public transport, water supply, sewage and housing (Ramatullah, 1997: 161-168). Urban Transport acts as catalyst to both urban and national development, by facilitating the movements associated with urban and national Development. They provide a means by which goods and services are made available to industry and consumers, creating opportunity for social and economic interaction and employment. Without urban transport, access to health, education and employment would not be possible. Indeed urban transport is what gives life to urban development

  12. Counter-Storytelling with African Proverbs: A Vehicle for Teaching Social Justice and Global Understanding in Urban, U.S. Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimeng-Boahene, Lewis

    2010-01-01

    Although the current demographics of urban schools in the United States reflect a rapid growth of culturally and linguistically diverse students, curricula continue to emphasize mainstream culture; cultural and linguistic experiences of these diverse students are ignored. In this article, the author examines how the use of counter storytelling in…

  13. Potential effects of urbanization on urban thermal comfort, a case study of Nairobi city, Kenya: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongoma Victor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study reviews the effect of urbanization on human thermal comfort over Nairobi city in Kenya. Urbanization alters urban center's land use and land cover, modifying the climate of the urban setting. The modification in climate affects human comfort and the environment at large. This study focuses on the recent studies conducted in Nairobi city and many other cities globally to examine modification of wind, temperature and humidity over Nairobi. There was observed reduction in wind speed and relative humidity over the city, posing threat to human and animal comfort and the environment at large. The city of Nairobi, just like other cities globally is observed to experience urban heat island (UHI. The observed increase in minimum temperature as compared to maximum temperature signifies overall warming. A combination of all these changes reduces human comfort. Borrowing lessons from developed cities, increasing the urban forest cover is thus suggested as one of the practical and effective measures that can help prevent further modification of weather and urban climates. The study recommends further research involving multi-sectoral urban stake holders, on forcing driving urban thermal comfort. In the short term, design and construction of appropriate structures can help minimize energy consumption and emissions, thus enhancing comfort.

  14. [The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, A G; Olvera, G

    1991-01-01

    Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.

  15. India’s urban challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, J.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, India's development has featured rapid economic growth and unprecedented urbanization. Using preliminary results from the 2011 Census and recent macro-economic data, the paper by a noted EU-based specialist analyzes the relationship between urbanization and economic development

  16. A New Automatic Method of Urban Areas Mapping in East Asia from LANDSAT Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    XU, R.; Jia, G.

    2012-12-01

    Cities, as places where human activities are concentrated, account for a small percent of global land cover but are frequently cited as the chief causes of, and solutions to, climate, biogeochemistry, and hydrology processes at local, regional, and global scales. Accompanying with uncontrolled economic growth, urban sprawl has been attributed to the accelerating integration of East Asia into the world economy and involved dramatic changes in its urban form and land use. To understand the impact of urban extent on biogeophysical processes, reliable mapping of built-up areas is particularly essential in eastern cities as a result of their characteristics of smaller patches, more fragile, and a lower fraction of the urban landscape which does not have natural than in the West. Segmentation of urban land from other land-cover types using remote sensing imagery can be done by standard classification processes as well as a logic rule calculation based on spectral indices and their derivations. Efforts to establish such a logic rule with no threshold for automatically mapping are highly worthwhile. Existing automatic methods are reviewed, and then a proposed approach is introduced including the calculation of the new index and the improved logic rule. Following this, existing automatic methods as well as the proposed approach are compared in a common context. Afterwards, the proposed approach is tested separately in cities of large, medium, and small scale in East Asia selected from different LANDSAT images. The results are promising as the approach can efficiently segment urban areas, even in the presence of more complex eastern cities. Key words: Urban extraction; Automatic Method; Logic Rule; LANDSAT images; East AisaThe Proposed Approach of Extraction of Urban Built-up Areas in Guangzhou, China

  17. Urban as a determinant of health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlahov, David; Freudenberg, Nicholas; Proietti, Fernando; Ompad, Danielle; Quinn, Andrew; Nandi, Vijay; Galea, Sandro

    2007-05-01

    Cities are the predominant mode of living, and the growth in cities is related to the expansion of areas that have concentrated disadvantage. The foreseeable trend is for rising inequities across a wide range of social and health dimensions. Although qualitatively different, this trend exists in both the developed and developing worlds. Improving the health of people in slums will require new analytic frameworks. The social-determinants approach emphasizes the role of factors that operate at multiple levels, including global, national, municipal, and neighborhood levels, in shaping health. This approach suggests that improving living conditions in such arenas as housing, employment, education, equality, quality of living environment, social support, and health services is central to improving the health of urban populations. While social determinant and multilevel perspectives are not uniquely urban, they are transformed when viewed through the characteristics of cities such as size, density, diversity, and complexity. Ameliorating the immediate living conditions in the cities in which people live offers the greatest promise for reducing morbidity, mortality, and disparities in health and for improving quality of life and well being.

  18. Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brantley Liddle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The level of world urbanization has crossed the 50% mark, and nearly all future population growth is projected to occur in cities. Cities are disproportionately wealthy, but are associated with poverty, too. Addressing the dual challenges of urbanization and poverty is key to achieving sustainable development. This paper performs cross-sectional regressions, based on Kuznets, as a starting point for understanding the relationship between urbanization and poverty/inequality indicators. Increases in gross domestic product per capita unambiguously lowered poverty and narrowed rural-urban gaps. By contrast, levels of urbanization were either unrelated to poverty/inequality indicators and measures of rural-urban gaps, or had a nonlinear effect where, initially, increases in urbanization likewise led to improvements in those areas, while at higher levels of urbanization, increases in urbanization exacerbated poverty and rural-urban gaps.

  19. Urban church forests for local temperature regulation: Implications the role of managing and incorporating urban green space in urban planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulu Tolla TURA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The global surface temperature shows an increment of 0.50.1C per decade and 1.050.3C per century from 1880-2014 with greater increases in cities than non-urban areas. Global communities are shifting towards urbanization due to various factors. Urbanization has caused lack of stable condition for dwellers due to environmental and anthropogenic factors such as land cover changes. Urban temperature rising is the main factors hindering urban dwellers at global level due to insufficient green areas. Social institutions are playing important role in urban greening and urban climate regulation. Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church has long history in indigenous trees biodiversity conservation that plays largely greening role in urban and rural parts of the country. However, there is a research gap in Ethiopia regarding the role of urban green area in the church yards in regulating urban temperature and microclimate change. Therefore, the study evaluated the role of church managed forests in Addis Ababa in regulating surface temperature. Surface temperature inside four church forests at a buffer radius of 0–50 m, 50–100 m, 100–200 m and 200–500 m estimated using Landsat image thermal band 6 of 1986, 2000 and 2010 and ground measurement by ambient thermometer at 10:00 am, 12:30 am and 3:00 pm local time. The ground measurement was done in order to validate satellite image analysis. Plant species diversity, DBH, H, HC, BH and BA was measured. There were 1167 trees in the four studied churches. The mean temperatures of the studied sites were 22.50.1, 23.250.2, 240.6, 24.61.1 and 25.52.2C on site,0–50 m, 50–100 m, 100–200m and 200–500 m respectively for 1986 images; 23.20.5, 23.31.0, 24.32.1, 24.82.2 and 25.51.8C on site, 0-50 m, 50–100 m, 100–200 m and 200–500 m respectively for 2000 images and 23.20.3, 23.270.2, 23.71.6, 241.4 and 24.71.3C on site, 0–50 m, 50–100 m

  20. Urban energy planning in Turku

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Christensen, Emil Maj; Große, Juliane

    prevailing urban sprawl, characterising urban development since the 1950s. The city is densifying and promoting sustainable urban develop-ment, though at a regional scale with several growth centres. Its future development is envisioned in the “Structure model 2035”, focusing on more compact urban...... development along public transport corridors. From the case report three issues arise which might be of considerable interest in a broader context of the PLEEC project: 1. Working with energy efficient regional urban structure (e.g. regarding urban sprawl) in a low density country and on a voluntary...