WorldWideScience

Sample records for global temperatures rise

  1. Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  2. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  3. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  4. Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Di Lorenzo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.

  5. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  6. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  7. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  8. Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

    2018-03-01

    To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

  9. Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.

    2018-03-01

    We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

  10. Tube temperature rise limits: Boiling considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderwater, R.G.

    1952-03-26

    A revision of tube power limits based on boiling considerations was presented earlier. The limits were given on a basis of tube power versus header pressure. However, for convenience of operation, the limits have been converted from tube power to permissible water temperature rise. The permissible {triangle}t`s water are given in this document.

  11. The Global Economic Crisis and the Africa Rising Narrative

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    growth back on the global agenda, with lowering oil prices and the rising of fracking .... workforce is informalised labour (Bieler et al 2008), while in the rural areas .... community gardens, and socially-owned renewable energy projects, which.

  12. Mixotrophic organisms become more heterotrophic with rising temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilken, S.; Huisman, J.; Naus-Wiezer, S.; van Donk, E.

    2013-01-01

    The metabolic theory of ecology predicts that temperature affects heterotrophic processes more strongly than autotrophic processes. We hypothesized that this differential temperature response may shift mixotrophic organisms towards more heterotrophic nutrition with rising temperature. The hypothesis

  13. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  14. Experimentation and Prediction of Temperature Rise in Turning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Experimentation and Prediction of Temperature Rise in Turning Process using Response Surface Methodology. ... Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue ...

  15. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

  16. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  17. 46 CFR 111.20-5 - Temperature rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING ELECTRIC SYSTEMS-GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Transformer Construction, Installation, and Protection § 111.20-5 Temperature rise. (a) The... than 40 degrees C, the transformer must be derated so that the total temperature stated in this section...

  18. Temperature rising characteristics of ammonium diurante in microwave fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Bingguo; Peng JinHui; Huang Daifu; Zhang Libo; Hu Jinming; Zhuang Zebiao; Kong Dongcheng; Guo Shenghui; Li Chunxiang

    2010-01-01

    The temperature rising characteristics of ammonium diurante, triuranium octaoxide (U 3 O 8 ), and their mixture were investigated under microwave irradiation, aiming at exploring newly theoretical foundation for advanced metallurgical methods. The temperature rising curves showed that ammonium diurante had weak capability to absorb microwave energy, while triuranium octaoxide had the very strong absorption capability. The temperature of mixture containing 20% of U 3 O 8 could rise from room temperature to 1171 K within 280 s. The ability to absorb microwave energy for the mixture with different ratios increased with the increase in the amount of U 3 O 8 . These are in good agreement with the results of Maxwell-Garnett effective medium theory. It is feasible to calcine ammonium diurante by adding of small amounts of U 3 O 8 in microwave fields.

  19. Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.

    2017-12-01

    Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to ‘well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’, projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we project GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr-1). Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr-1 (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr-1).

  20. Temperature rise and stress induced by microcracks in accelerating structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The temperature rise and induced stress due to Ohmic heating in the vicinity of microcracks on the walls of high-gradient accelerating structures are considered. The temperature rise and induced stress depend on the orientation of the crack with respect to the rf magnetic field, the shape of the crack, and the power and duration of the rf pulse. Under certain conditions the presence of cracks can double the temperature rise over that of a smooth surface. Stress at the bottom of the cracks can be several times larger than that of the case when there are no cracks. We study these effects both analytically and by computer simulation. It is shown that the stress in cracks is maximal when the crack depth is on the order of the thermal penetration depth.

  1. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  2. Tooth Whitening And Temperature Rise With Two Bleaching Activation Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abu-ElMagd, D. M.; El-Sayad, I. I.; Abd El-Gawad, L. M.

    2009-01-01

    To measure the tooth whitening and the surface and Intrapulpal temperature increase in vitro on freshly extracted upper human central incisors after chemical, Zoom AP light and diode laser activated bleaching. Thirty caries-free upper human incisors were selected. Teeth were divided into three equal groups according to the methods of activation of the bleaching agent (n = 10). A whitening gel containing hydrogen peroxide was applied to the buccal surface of all teeth. Group I was bleached using chemically activated hydrogen peroxide gel, for three applications of 15 min each. Group II was bleached with high intensity advanced power Zoom activation light (Zoom AP), for three applications of 15 min each. Group III was bleached with diode laser activation technique, where the teeth were irradiated with 2 Watt diode laser for three applications of 30 sec each. The whitening degree was assessed using an image analysis system, while temperature rise was recorded using a thermocouple on the external tooth surface and Intrapulpal. The degree of whitening increased significantly in all groups. However, the percentage of whitening was not statistically significantly different between the three groups. In addition, group II showed statistically significant higher mean rise in both surface and pulp temperatures than group I and group III. Chemical bleaching produces the same whitening effect as Zoom AP light and laser, with no surface or pulpal temperature rise. Laser application is faster and produces less surface and pulp temperature increase than Zoom AP light. Diode laser used to activate bleaching gels is not considered dangerous to the vitality of dental pulp using power settings of 2 W.

  3. The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.; Thompson, T. R.

    2017-12-01

    Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10-30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high tempera- tures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

  4. Determination of Temperature Rise and Temperature Differentials of CEMII/B-V Cement for 20MPa Mass Concrete using Adiabatic Temperature Rise Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chee Siang, GO

    2017-07-01

    Experimental test was carried out to determine the temperature rise characteristics of Portland-Fly-Ash Cement (CEM II/B-V, 42.5N) of Blaine fineness 418.6m2/kg and 444.6m2/kg respectively for 20MPa mass concrete under adiabatic condition. The estimation on adiabatic temperature rise by way of CIRIA C660 method (Construction Industry Research & Information Information) was adopted to verify and validate the hot-box test results by simulating the heat generation curve of the concrete under semi-adiabatic condition. Test result found that Portland fly-ash cement has exhibited decrease in the peak value of temperature rise and maximum temperature rise rate. The result showed that the temperature development and distribution profile, which is directly contributed from the heat of hydration of cement with time, is affected by the insulation, initial placing temperature, geometry and size of concrete mass. The mock up data showing the measured temperature differential is significantly lower than the technical specifications 20°C temperature differential requirement and the 27.7°C limiting temperature differential for granite aggregate concrete as stipulated in BS8110-2: 1985. The concrete strength test result revealed that the 28 days cubes compressive strength was above the stipulated 20MPa characteristic strength at 90 days. The test demonstrated that with proper concrete mix design, the use of Portland flyash cement, combination of chilled water and flake ice, and good insulation is effective in reducing peak temperature rise, temperature differential, and lower adiabatic temperature rise for mass concrete pours. As far as the determined adiabatic temperature rise result was concern, the established result could be inferred for in-situ thermal properties of 20MPa mass concrete application, as the result could be repeatable on account of similar type of constituent materials and concrete mix design adopted for permanent works at project site.

  5. Effects of environment temperature rise on marine life. Bibliographic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancellin, J.; Eustache, M.; Vilquin, A.

    1973-12-01

    The effects of a temperature rise in the marine environment resulting from thermal wastes have already been covered by many studies. A body of data acquired on this subject, in the biological field, experimentally and in situ are reviewed. To this are added data concerning the major effects associated with the use of cooling systems, drag effect exerted on organisms by the pumping system and consequences due to the use of anti-fouling substances, as well as some ideas concerning the potential use of thermal wastes in the field of aquaculture [fr

  6. Temperature rise, sea level rise and increased radiative forcing - an application of cointegration methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmith, Torben; Thejll, Peter; Johansen, Søren

    2016-04-01

    We analyse the statistical relationship between changes in global temperature, global steric sea level and radiative forcing in order to reveal causal relationships. There are in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We therefore apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis, originating from the field of econometrics, which is able to correctly handle the analysis of series with trends and other long-range dependencies. Further, we find a relationship between steric sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the steric sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. This result is obtained both when analyzing observed data and data from a CMIP5 historical model run. Finally, we find that in the data from the historical run, the steric sea level, in turn, is driven by the external forcing. Finally, we demonstrate that combining these two results can lead to a novel estimate of radiative forcing back in time based on observations.

  7. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  8. Global warming and sea level rise. Chikyu Ondanka to kaimen josho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mimura, N [Ibaraki University, Ibaraki (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1993-10-15

    This paper describes the following matters on the problems of global warming and sea level rise. The first evaluation report published by the inter-government panel on climate change (IPCC) in 1990 estimates that, if emission of greenhouse effect gas keeps increasing at the present rate, the air temperature and the average sea level would rise by 3[degree]C and 65 centimeters, respectively by 2100. Global warming would not only result in rise of the sea level, but also accompany changes in strengths and routes of tropical low pressure areas, and precipitation patterns. Downstream areas of large rivers and island countries on coral reefs may have a risk of getting submerged. Countries having coasts developed to high densities (Japan, for example) would be subjected to a high potential effect. An 'East Hemisphere International Conference on Sea Level Rising Problem' was held in Japan in August 1993 as part of the works to prepare the second evaluation report of the IPCC (publication scheduled for 1995). The conference was attended by 24 countries, and 43 study results were reported. 4 figs.

  9. Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelbrecht, Francois; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Adegoke, Jimmy; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfey, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of

  10. The Rise of Global Science and the Emerging Political Economy of International Research Collaborations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Michael A.

    2006-01-01

    This article charts the rise of global science and a global science infrastructure as part of the emerging international knowledge system exemplifying a geography of knowledge and the importance of new info-communications networks. The article theorises the rise of global science, which still strongly reflects a Western bias and is highly…

  11. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

  12. Can human local activities worsen the rise of temperature due to Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, E.; Santana, J.; Deeb, A.; Grünwaldt, A.; Prieto, R.

    2013-12-01

    Several studies have shown a global scale temperature rise which in consequence, have brought up the need to propose various impact scenarios for this change on the planet and its life forms. Climate changes have a direct effect on human activities. Particularly these alterations have a negative impact on economy which in turn affects the most vulnerable and marginal population on developing nations. In a recent study based on 30 years climatological observed temperature in ten Mexican watersheds, from the period between 1970 and 1999, positive trend on maximum temperature were found in all watersheds. At each watershed at least 10 climatological stations from the net operated by the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meterologico Nacional), whose data are maintained in the CLICOM database (Computerized Climate database), were selected. The climatological stations have at least 70% valid data per decade. In eight watersheds a maximum temperature trend oscillates between +0.5 to +1 oC every 30 years with a 95% confidence level. Nonetheless, in Rio Bravo and Rio Verde watersheds the tendencies are +1.75 and +2.75 oC over 30 years. The result in these two last watersheds evinces that: 1) there are fragile systems; 2) the human activities have a strong impact in those places, and 3) a principal anthropogenic influence on temperature rise is the change in land use. Temperature rised on Jalostitlan within Rio Verde watershed

  13. A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Heki, K.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

  14. Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden

    2017-10-01

    Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.

  15. The Global Economic Crisis and the Africa Rising Narrative

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    in the context of the intertwined global socio-economic as well as ecological crisis ...... Warming and Environmental Destruction, London: Resistance Books. .... Piketty, T., 2014, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, The Belknap Press of Harvard.

  16. The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon H. Hanson

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, I examine changes in international trade associated with the integration of low- and middle-income countries into the global economy. Led by China and India, the share of developing economies in global exports more than doubled between 1994 and 2008. One feature of new trade patterns is greater South-South trade. China and India have booming demand for imported raw materials, which they use to build cities and factories. Industrialization throughout the South has deepened globa...

  17. Globalization and the Rise of the Entrepreneurial Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Audretsch, D.; Sanders, M.

    This paper argues that recent trends in the global economy have led to a shift in developed countries’ comparative advantage from mature industrial to early stage entrepreneurial production. We develop a three stage product life cycle model in which we distinguish between life cycle stages

  18. The rise and fall of the global climate polity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited to engine......Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited...... to engineering local and temporary effects on rainfall, and historically many schemes ended in failure or even ridicule (Fleming 2012). Few if any people seriously entertained the idea that people, states, corporations and international organizations would mobilize and operate giant monitoring and regulatory...... systems in concerted attempts to change (or preserve) the chemical composition of the global atmosphere. This raises not only the question of how the idea of governing something like the climate so rapidly became a matter of course but also how sure we can be that it will remain so in, for example...

  19. The Global Rise of the U.S. Community College Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase-Mayoral, Audree M.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter explores the theoretical and conceptual history of the global rise of the U.S. community college model, focusing on the common missing ingredient that remains elusive among the increasing numbers of these community-based institutions.

  20. Rising Power Clusters and the Challenges of Local and Global Standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Knorringa (Peter); K. Nadvi (Khalid)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper explores the intersection between three processes associated with globalisation. First, the rise of emerging economies like China, Brazil and India, the so-called ‘Rising Powers’, and their potential to define the contours of globalisation, global production arrangements and

  1. Rising Power Clusters and the Challenges of Local and Global Standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Knorringa (Peter); K. Nadvi (Khalid)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ This paper explores the intersection between three processes associated with globalisation. First, the rise of emerging economies like China, Brazil and India, the so-called ‘Rising Powers’, and their potential to define the contours of globalisation, global

  2. Investigating sea level rise due to global warming in the teaching laboratory using Archimedes’ principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Stephen; Pearce, Darren

    2015-01-01

    A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm 3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of −0.008 ± 0.011%. (paper)

  3. NOAA Global Surface Temperature (NOAAGlobalTemp)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is a merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (formerly known as MLOST) (link is external). It is...

  4. Rising trade, declining stocks: The global gugul (Commiphora wightii) trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, A B; Brinckmann, J A; Kulloli, R N; Schippmann, U

    2018-05-07

    Commiphora wightii is exploited in India and Pakistan for an oleo-resin (gum guggul) traditionally used in Ayurvedic, Siddha and Unani medical systems. Processed C. wightii oleo-resin products are exported from India to 42 countries, including re-export to Pakistan, for anti-inflammatory use and as an anti-inflammatory and an anti-obesity treatment considered to lower cholesterol and lipid levels. The C. wightii export trade has particular relevance to the European Union because Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom are importing countries. Demand and prices for C. wightii oleo-resin are increasing and wild stocks of C. wightii are in decline. The overexploitation of C. wightii after tapping for its commercially valuable oleo-resin is not a new problem, however, but one that has existed for over 50 years. Lopping and chopping trees to extract C. wightii oleo-resin has had a devastating impact on C. wightii populations since the 1960's. The aim of this study was to review the sustainability of the global trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. This included reviewing studies on resin tapping methods and the impacts of wild harvest on C. wightii populations in India and Pakistan. Firstly, we reviewed studies on impacts of C. wightii oleo-resin harvest and on the policy responses taken in relation to harvest and trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. Secondly, we reviewed studies on C. wightii cultivation. Thirdly, global trade data for C. wightii were analyzed. Destructive harvest to obtain the gum is the major threat facing this species. C. wightii populations are also fragmented by habitat loss through clearing for farming. Cutting and lopping in order to extract the medicinal gum are a major threat to C. wightii populations, as is poor recruitment due to grazing by livestock. As a result of over-exploitation, C. wightii oleo-resin production has declined in India. In Gujarat, a key production area, the decline over a 50-year period has

  5. The Rise and Fall of Protein Malnutrition in Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semba, Richard D

    2016-01-01

    From the 1950s to the mid-1970s, United Nations (UN) agencies were focused on protein malnutrition as the major worldwide nutritional problem. The goal of this review is to examine this era of protein malnutrition, the reasons for its demise, and the aftermath. The UN Protein Advisory Group was established in 1955. International conferences were largely concerned about protein malnutrition in children. By the early 1970s, UN agencies were ringing the alarm about a 'protein gap'. In The Lancet in 1974, Donald McLaren branded these efforts as 'The Great Protein Fiasco', declaring that the 'protein gap' was a fallacy. The following year, John Waterlow, the scientist who led most of the efforts on protein malnutrition, admitted that a 'protein gap' did not exist and that young children in developing countries only needed sufficient energy intake. The emphasis on protein malnutrition waned. It is recently apparent that quality protein and essential amino acids are missing in the diet and may have adverse consequences for child growth and the reduction of child stunting. Key Messages: It may be time to re-include protein and return protein malnutrition in the global health agenda using a balanced approach that includes all protective nutrients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  6. The Community College and a Rising Global Imaginary: An Analysis of Practical Reasoning, 1950-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, David F.; Palmadessa, Allison L.

    2015-01-01

    Through an analysis of 245 issues of the "Community College Journal" published between 1950 and 2013, we show how three discourses--international understanding and geopolitics, economic competitiveness, and global citizenship--informed practical reasoning about a rising global imaginary and its implications for the community college. By…

  7. Demography and growth: two forces leading to rising global income inequality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rougoor, W.; van Marrewijk, C.; Jiaotong, X.

    2014-01-01

    Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic

  8. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, Senthold; Cammarano, Davide; Basso, Bruno; Chung, Uran; Alderman, Phillip D; Sonder, Kai; Reynolds, Matthew; Lobell, David B

    2017-06-01

    Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Temperature rise and Heat build up inside a parked Car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coady, Rose; Maheswaranathan, Ponn

    2001-11-01

    We have studied the heat build up inside a parked car under the hot summer Sun. Inside and outside temperatures were monitored every ten seconds from 9 AM to about 4 PM for a 2000 Toyota Camry parked in a Winthrop University parking lot without any shades or trees. Two PASCO temperature sensors, one inside the car and the other outside the car, are used along with PASCO-750 interface to collect the data. Data were collected under the following conditions while keeping track of the outside weather: fully closed windows, slightly open windows, half way open windows, fully open windows, and with window shades inside and outside. Inside temperatures reached as high as 150 degrees Fahrenheit on a sunny day with outside high temperature of about 100 degrees Fahrenheit. These results will be presented along with results from car cover and window tint manufacturers and suggestions to keep your car cool next time you park it under the Sun.

  10. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

    2017-09-01

    Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

  11. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. F. Lewin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by  ∼  1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be  ∼  2–3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming

  12. Temperature rise produced by different light-curing units through dentin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazici, A Rüya; Müftü, Ali; Kugel, Gerard

    2007-11-01

    This study investigated the temperature rise caused by different light curing units and the temperature increase in dentin of different thicknesses. Dentin discs of 1.0 and 2.0 mm thicknesses were prepared from extracted human mandibular molars. Temperatures were recorded directly at the surface of the light guide tip, under dentin discs with different thicknesses, and through a sandwich composed of 2 mm thick cured composite and dentin using a K-type thermocouple. The curing units used were two quartz-tungsten-halogen lights (Spectrum and Elipar Trilight-ET) and a light-emitting diode (LED). The highest temperature rise was observed under a Mylar strip using ET standard mode. Under 1 and 2 mm thick dentin barriers, the lowest temperature rise was measured for the LED curing light. Significant differences in temperature rise existed among all curing units except between the Spectrum and ET exponential modes under a 1 mm thick dentin barrier with cured composite. Temperature rises were insignificant between the Spectrum and ET exponential modes and between two modes of Trilight when the same experimental setup was used under a 2 mm thick dentin barrier. For all curing units, temperature elevation through 2 mm of dentin was less than for 1 mm of dentin thickness. The ET standard mode produced the highest and the LED produced the lowest temperature rise for all tested conditions. The thickness of dentin and light-curing unit might affect temperature transmission.

  13. A study on plastic strain accumulation caused by traveling of temperature distribution synchronizing with temperature rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okajima, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    The prevention of excessive deformation by thermal ratcheting is important in the design of high-temperature components of fast breeder reactors (FBR). This includes evaluation methods for a new type of thermal ratcheting caused by an axial traveling of temperature distribution, which corresponds to moving-up of liquid sodium surface in startup phase. Long range traveling of the axial temperature distribution brings flat plastic deformation profile in wide range. Therefore, at the center of this range, residual stress that brings shakedown behavior does not accumulate. As a result, repeating of this temperature traveling brings continuous accumulation of the plastic strain, even if there is no primary stress. In contrast, in the case with short range traveling, residual stress is caused by constraint against elastic part, and finally it results in shakedown. Because of this mechanism, we supposed that limit for the shakedown behavior depends on distance from the elastic part (i.e. half length of region with plastic deformation). In this paper, we examined characteristics of the accumulation of the plastic strain caused by realistic heat transients, namely, traveling of temperature distribution synchronizing with temperature rise. This examination was based on finite element analyses using elastic-perfectly plastic material. As a result, we confirmed that the shakedown limit depends not on the traveling range of the temperature distribution but the plastic deformation range, which was predicted by the elastic analysis. In the actual application, we can control the plastic deformation range by changing rate of the moving-up of liquid sodium surface. (author)

  14. On rising temperature trends at Dehradun in Doon valley of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    temperature changes at Dehradun city by analyzing the time series data of annual maximum, minimum and mean ... Moreover, about 80% of future economic growth will occur in cities ... Assessing the impacts of urbanization and land ... tant business, educational and cultural destination ... Tourism and transportation. 203.0.

  15. Temperature rise induced by some light emitting diode and quartz-tungsten-halogen curing units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmussen, Erik; Peutzfeldt, Anne

    2005-02-01

    Because of the risk of thermal damage to the pulp, the temperature rise induced by light-curing units should not be too high. LED (light emitting diode) curing units have the main part of their irradiation in the blue range and have been reported to generate less heat than QTH (quartz-tungsten-halogen) curing units. This study had two aims: first, to measure the temperature rise induced by ten LED and three QTH curing units; and, second, to relate the measured temperature rise to the power density of the curing units. The light-induced temperature rise was measured by means of a thermocouple embedded in a small cylinder of resin composite. The power density was measured by using a dental radiometer. For LED units, the temperature rise increased with increasing power density, in a statistically significant manner. Two of the three QTH curing units investigated resulted in a higher temperature rise than LED curing units of the same power density. Previous findings, that LED curing units induce less temperature rise than QTH units, does not hold true in general.

  16. Relationship of pressure to temperature rise in overfilled cylinders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barber, E.J.

    1979-01-01

    Mild steel pressure vessels containing uranium hexafluoride are heated in 96-inch diameter autoclaves to allow the feed material to enter the gaseous diffusion process equipment for enrichment in the uranium 235 isotope. For purposes of safety analysis it is necessary to establish the ability of the instrumentation to shut off the steam supply to the autoclave prior to cylinder rupture if the cylinder has been overfilled. To make this determination requires estimates of the rate of change of pressure with respect to change of temperature at constant volume as a function of the temperature at which the ullage disappears. The paper presents the calculations for the estimation of this rate of change for liquid uranium hexafluoride using the ratio of the coefficients of expansion and compressibility using empirical liquid density data and the Eyring equation of state for liquids. 5 figs. (MB)

  17. Analysed foundation sea surface temperature, global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The through-cloud capabilities of microwave radiometers provide a valuable picture of global sea surface temperature (SST). To utilize this, scientists at Remote...

  18. Optimization of Process Parameters During End Milling and Prediction of Work Piece Temperature Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhirud N.L.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available During the machining processes, heat gets generated as a result of plastic deformation of metal and friction along the tool–chip and tool–work piece interface. In materials having high thermal conductivity, like aluminium alloys, large amount of this heat is absorbed by the work piece. This results in the rise in the temperature of the work piece, which may lead to dimensional inaccuracies, surface damage and deformation. So, it is needed to control rise in the temperature of the work piece. This paper focuses on the measurement, analysis and prediction of work piece temperature rise during the dry end milling operation of Al 6063. The control factors used for experimentation were number of flutes, spindle speed, depth of cut and feed rate. The Taguchi method was employed for the planning of experimentation and L18 orthogonal array was selected. The temperature rise of the work piece was measured with the help of K-type thermocouple embedded in the work piece. Signal to noise (S/N ratio analysis was carried out using the lower-the-better quality characteristics. Depth of cut was identified as the most significant factor affecting the work piece temperature rise, followed by spindle speed. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was employed to find out the significant parameters affecting the work piece temperature rise. ANOVA results were found to be in line with the S/N ratio analysis. Regression analysis was used for developing empirical equation of temperature rise. The temperature rise of the work piece was calculated using the regression equation and was found to be in good agreement with the measured values. Finally, confirmation tests were carried out to verify the results obtained. From the confirmation test it was found that the Taguchi method is an effective method to determine optimised parameters for minimization of work piece temperature.

  19. Curie temperature rising by fluorination for Sm2Fe17

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matahiro Komuro

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Fluorine atoms can be introduced to Sm2Fe17 using XeF2 below 423 K. The resulting fluorinated Sm2Fe17 powders have ferromagnetic phases containing Sm2Fe17FY1(0temperature from 403 K for Sm2Fe17 to 675 K. This increase can be explained by the magneto-volume effect.

  20. In vitro pulp chamber temperature rise from irradiation and exotherm of flowable composites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baroudi, Kusai; Silikas, Nick; Watts, David C

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the pulpal temperature rise induced during the polymerization of flowable and non-flowable composites using light-emitting diode (LED) and halogen (quartz-tungsten-halogen) light-curing units (LCUs). Five flowable and three non-flowable composites were examined. Pulpal temperature changes were recorded over 10 min in a sample primary tooth by a thermocouple. A conventional quartz-tungsten-halogen source and two LEDs, one of which was programmable, were used for light curing the resin composites. Three repetitions per material were made for each LCU. There was a wide range of temperature rises among the materials (P < 0.05). Temperature rises ranged between 1.3 degrees C for Filtek Supreme irradiated by low-power LED and 4.5 degrees C for Grandio Flow irradiated by high-power LED. The highest temperature rises were observed with both the LED high-power and soft-start LCUs. The time to reach the exothermic peak varied significantly between the materials (P < 0.05). Pulpal temperature rise is related to both the radiant energy output from LCUs and the polymerization exotherm of resin composites. A greater potential risk for heat-induced pulp damage might be associated with high-power LED sources. Flowable composites exhibited higher temperature rises than non-flowable materials, because of higher resin contents.

  1. Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Chao, B.; Wu, Y.-H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies suggest the increasing contribution of groundwater depletion to global sea-level rise. Groundwater depletion has more than doubled during the last decades, primarily due to increase in water demand, while the increase in water impoundments behind dams has been tapering off since

  2. US elite power and the rise of ‘statist’ Chinese elites in global markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, Naná; van Apeldoorn, Bastiaan

    The rise of Chinese ‘state capitalism’ such as expressed by the global expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been met with substantial suspicion on the part of the Western corporate and political establishment—including among Washington’s policy-making elite. The underpinning claim

  3. Heat generation and temperature-rise in ordinary concrete due to capture of thermal neutrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdo, E.A.; Amin, E.

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this work is the evaluation of the heat generation and temperature-rise in local ordinary concrete as a biological shield due to capture of total thermal and reactor thermal neutrons. The total thermal neutron fluxes were measured and calculated. The channel number 2 of the ETRR-1 reactor was used in the measurements as a neutron source. Computer code ANISN (VAX version) and neutron multigroup cross-section library EURLiB-4 was used in the calculations. The heat generation and temperature-rise in local ordinary concrete were evaluated and calculated. The results were displayed in curves to show the distribution of thermal neutron fluxes and heat generation as well as temperature-rise with the shield thickness. The results showed that, the heat generation as well as the temperature-rise have their maximum values in the first layers of the shield thickness. 4 figs., 12 refs

  4. Finite difference modelling of the temperature rise in non-linear medical ultrasound fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divall, S A; Humphrey, V F

    2000-03-01

    Non-linear propagation of ultrasound can lead to increased heat generation in medical diagnostic imaging due to the preferential absorption of harmonics of the original frequency. A numerical model has been developed and tested that is capable of predicting the temperature rise due to a high amplitude ultrasound field. The acoustic field is modelled using a numerical solution to the Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov (KZK) equation, known as the Bergen Code, which is implemented in cylindrical symmetric form. A finite difference representation of the thermal equations is used to calculate the resulting temperature rises. The model allows for the inclusion of a number of layers of tissue with different acoustic and thermal properties and accounts for the effects of non-linear propagation, direct heating by the transducer, thermal diffusion and perfusion in different tissues. The effect of temperature-dependent skin perfusion and variation in background temperature between the skin and deeper layers of the body are included. The model has been tested against analytic solutions for simple configurations and then used to estimate temperature rises in realistic obstetric situations. A pulsed 3 MHz transducer operating with an average acoustic power of 200 mW leads to a maximum steady state temperature rise inside the foetus of 1.25 degrees C compared with a 0.6 degree C rise for the same transmitted power under linear propagation conditions. The largest temperature rise occurs at the skin surface, with the temperature rise at the foetus limited to less than 2 degrees C for the range of conditions considered.

  5. The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

    2017-12-01

    Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

  6. Evaluation of temperature rise with different curing methods and units in two composite resins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabatabaei M

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: The majority of commercial curing units in dentistry are of halogen lamp type. The new polymerizing units such as blue LED are introduced in recent years. One of the important side effects of light curing is the temperature rise in composite resin polymerization which can affect the vitality of tooth pulp. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the temperature rise in two different composite resins during polymerization with halogen lamps and blue LED. Materials and Methods: This experimental study investigated the temperature rise in two different composites (Hybrid, Tetric Ceram/Nanofilled, Filteke Supreme of A2 shade polymerized with two halogen lamps (Coltolux 50, 350 mW/cm2 and Optilux 501 in standard, 820 mW/cm2 and Ramp, 100-1030 mW/cm2 operating modes and one blue LED with the intensity of 620 mW/cm2. Five samples for each group were prepared and temperature rise was monitored using a k-type thermocouple. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA, two-way ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests with P<0.05 as the limit of significance. Results: Light curing units and composite resins had statistically significant influence on the temperature rise (p<0.05. Significantly, lower temperature rise occurred in case of illumination with Coltolux 50.There was no significant difference between Optilux 501 in standard curing mode and LED. Tetric Ceram showed higher temperature rise. Conclusion: According to the results of this study the high power halogen lamp and LED could produce significant heat which may be harmful to the dental pulp.

  7. Feedback circuit application for multiple fluid temperature rise or drop; Visestruko dizanje i spustanje temperature fluida povratnom spregom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novakovic, M [Tehnoloski fakultet Novi Sad (Yugoslavia); Stefanovic, M [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia); Blagojevic, B [MaSinski fakultet, Nis (Yugoslavia); Stoiljkovic, S [Tehnoloski fakultet, Leskovac (Yugoslavia)

    1995-07-01

    Multiplication of temperature rise or drop is proposed and explained by Feedback method. Application of this method is proposed for different elementary processes of temperature variation (non isothermal processes). The paper points to possibilities of increasing performance of existing apparatuses and new ways for performing heating or cooling. (author)

  8. Feedback circuit application for multiple fluid temperature rise or drop; Visestruko dizanje i spustanje temperature fluida povratnom spregom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novakovic, M [Tehnoloski fakultet Novi Sad (Yugoslavia); Stefanovic, M [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia); Blagojevic, B [MaSinski fakultet, Nis (Yugoslavia); Stoiljkovic, S [Tehnoloski fakultet, Leskovac (Yugoslavia)

    1996-12-31

    Multiplication of temperature rise or drop is proposed and explained by Feedback method. Application of this method is proposed for different elementary processes of temperature variation (non isothermal processes). The paper points to possibilities of increasing performance of existing apparatuses and new ways for performing heating or cooling. (author.) 2 refs. 3 figs. 1 tabs.

  9. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, Grant; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr −1 . When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Niño/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.

  10. The rise and manifestation of globalism and its implications for science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.J. van Niekerk

    1995-03-01

    Full Text Available The rise and manifestation of globalism and its implicationsfor science. The concept globalism refers to the interdependent and interconnected character of the contemporary world. One of the characteristics of the globalistic world order is that it is a threat unto itself This threat is manifested in numerous global crises such as the population explosion, the extensive developmental disparities between First and Third World countries, the energy crisis, atomic warfare and the environmental crisis. Humanity has brought these and other global crises upon itself by the advancement of the modern (Western industrial civilisation which emanated from the absolutised application of the natural scientific mode of thought. In order to defend the thesis that the phenomenon of globalisation has profound implications for scientific practice, it is necessary to present a historical overview of the rise of globalism and an interpretation of its current manifestation. From these aspects one can deduce the significant implications that this phenomenon has for scientific practice. General features of a more accountable mode of scientific thought are also presented. Finally, Temporality Agogics, a paradigm within the context o f History of Education, is discussed as an example o f such a more accountable mode of scientific practice.

  11. Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, Matthew; Chester, Mikhail; Johnson, Nathan; Gorman, Brandon; Eisenberg, Daniel; Linkov, Igor; Bates, Matthew

    2016-11-01

    Climate change may constrain future electricity supply adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity and increasing electricity demand. The carrying capacity of electric power cables decreases as ambient air temperatures rise; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity loads typically increase with hotter air temperatures due to increased air conditioning usage. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher ambient air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by simultaneously reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity load. We estimate the impacts of rising ambient air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak per-capita electricity load for 121 planning areas in the United States using downscaled global climate model projections. Together, these planning areas account for roughly 80% of current peak summertime load. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with future temperature projections to determine the percent change in rated ampacity. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity load by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We find that by mid-century (2040-2060), increases in ambient air temperature may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 1.9%-5.8% relative to the 1990-2010 reference period. At the same time, peak per-capita summertime loads may rise by 4.2%-15% on average due to increases in ambient air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity supply adequacy.

  12. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  13. Unequal ‘Partners’. AIDS, Academia, and the Rise of Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna T. Crane

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has seen the proliferation of “global health” departments, centers, programs, and majors across top research universities in North America and Europe. This trend has been particularly pronounced in the United States, where it is connected to America′s new role as a major sponsor of HIV treatment in Africa. This paper describes the rise of “global health” as a research, funding, and training priority within U.S. academic medicine, and the increasing desirability of “global health partnerships” with institutions in sub-Saharan Africa. Leading spokespersons emphasize that “partnership” with poor nations is central to the mission of global health, an ethic that distinguishes it from older, more paternalistic traditions of international health and tropical medicine. However, at the same time, the field of academic global health depends on steep inequalities for its very existence, as it is the opportunity to work in impoverished, low-tech settings with high disease burdens that draws North American researchers and clinicians to global health programs and ensures their continued funding. This paradox – in which inequality is both a form of suffering to be redressed and a professional, knowledge-generating, opportunity to be exploited – makes the partnerships to which global health aspires particularly challenging.

  14. Evidence that global evapotranspiration makes a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.

    2018-02-01

    The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15

  15. Temperature rise due to mechanical energy dissipation in undirectional thermoplastic composites(AS4/PEEK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgious, I. T.; Sun, C. T.

    1992-01-01

    The history of temperature rise due to internal dissipation of mechanical energy in insulated off-axis uniaxial specimens of the unidirectional thermoplastic composite (AS4/PEEK) has been measured. The experiment reveals that the rate of temperature rise is a polynomial function of stress amplitude: It consists of a quadratic term and a sixth power term. This fact implies that the specific heat of the composite depends on the stretching its microstructure undergoes during deformation. The Einstein theory for specific heat is used to explain the dependence of the specific heat on the stretching of the microstructure.

  16. Dissipation of mechanical work and temperature rise in AS4/PEEK thermoplastic composite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, I.; Sun, C. T.

    1990-01-01

    The dissipated mechanical work per cycle of sinusoidal stress in the thermoplastic composite material AS4/PEEK was measured as a function of stress amplitude for fixed frequency and fiber orientation. The experimental result shows that the dissipated work per cycle is proportional to the square of the stress amplitude. Using the concept of the equivalent isotropic material, it is shown that the relaxation modulus satisfies a proportionality condition. Also, the rate of temperature rise due to sinusoidal stresses has been measured as a function of stress amplitude. The result shows that the rate of temperature rise is not proportional to the square of the stress amplitude.

  17. The Global Experience of Deployment of Energy-Efficient Technologies in High-Rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potienko, Natalia D.; Kuznetsova, Anna A.; Solyakova, Darya N.; Klyueva, Yulia E.

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this research is to examine issues related to the increasing importance of energy-efficient technologies in high-rise construction. The aim of the paper is to investigate modern approaches to building design that involve implementation of various energy-saving technologies in diverse climates and at different structural levels, including the levels of urban development, functionality, planning, construction and engineering. The research methodology is based on the comprehensive analysis of the advanced global expertise in the design and construction of energy-efficient high-rise buildings, with the examination of their positive and negative features. The research also defines the basic principles of energy-efficient architecture. Besides, it draws parallels between the climate characteristics of countries that lead in the field of energy-efficient high-rise construction, on the one hand, and the climate in Russia, on the other, which makes it possible to use the vast experience of many countries, wholly or partially. The paper also gives an analytical review of the results arrived at by implementing energy efficiency principles into high-rise architecture. The study findings determine the impact of energy-efficient technologies on high-rise architecture and planning solutions. In conclusion, the research states that, apart from aesthetic and compositional interpretation of architectural forms, an architect nowadays has to address the task of finding a synthesis between technological and architectural solutions, which requires knowledge of advanced technologies. The study findings reveal that the implementation of modern energy-efficient technologies into high-rise construction is of immediate interest and is sure to bring long-term benefits.

  18. Impact of global warming and rising CO2 levels on coral reef fishes: what hope for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Philip L; McCormick, Mark I; Nilsson, Göran E

    2012-11-15

    Average sea-surface temperature and the amount of CO(2) dissolved in the ocean are rising as a result of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2). Many coral reef fishes appear to be living close to their thermal optimum, and for some of them, even relatively moderate increases in temperature (2-4°C) lead to significant reductions in aerobic scope. Reduced aerobic capacity could affect population sustainability because less energy can be devoted to feeding and reproduction. Coral reef fishes seem to have limited capacity to acclimate to elevated temperature as adults, but recent research shows that developmental and transgenerational plasticity occur, which might enable some species to adjust to rising ocean temperatures. Predicted increases in P(CO(2)), and associated ocean acidification, can also influence the aerobic scope of coral reef fishes, although there is considerable interspecific variation, with some species exhibiting a decline and others an increase in aerobic scope at near-future CO(2) levels. As with thermal effects, there are transgenerational changes in response to elevated CO(2) that could mitigate impacts of high CO(2) on the growth and survival of reef fishes. An unexpected discovery is that elevated CO(2) has a dramatic effect on a wide range of behaviours and sensory responses of reef fishes, with consequences for the timing of settlement, habitat selection, predator avoidance and individual fitness. The underlying physiological mechanism appears to be the interference of acid-base regulatory processes with brain neurotransmitter function. Differences in the sensitivity of species and populations to global warming and rising CO(2) have been identified that will lead to changes in fish community structure as the oceans warm and becomes more acidic; however, the prospect for acclimation and adaptation of populations to these threats also needs to be considered. Ultimately, it will be the capacity for species to adjust to environmental

  19. Carbon inventories and atmospheric temperatures: A global and regional perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    stream_size 3 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  20. An observational study on the temperature rising effects in water warming canal and water warming pond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, J. B.; Hong, S. B. [Rural Development Cooperation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1990-09-15

    The power water flowed out from the multipurpose darn influences the ecosystem approximately because of the low water temperature. An appropriate counter measure to the rising water temperature is needed for growing crops especially when the temperature is below 18°C in the source of the irrigation water This observational study is practiced in Yong-Doo water warming canal and pond in the down stream of Choong-Ju multipurpose dam and is practiced for analyse and compare the rising effects in actural water temperature by actual measurement with the rising effects of planned water temperatuer by the basic theoritical method and for the help to present the direction in plan establishment through investigate the results afterwards. The results are as follows. 1. The degree of the rise of the water temperature can be decided by θ{sub x} = θ{sub 0} + K (L/(v * h)) * (T - θ{sub 0}) Then, K values of a factor representing the characteristics of the water warming canal were 0.00002043 for the type I. and 0.0000173 for the type II. respectively. 2. A variation of water temperature which produced by the difference effective temperature and water temperature in the water warming canal was θ{sub x1} = 16.5 + 15.9 (1-e{sup -0.00018x}), θ{sub x2} = 18.8 + 8.4(1-e{sup -0.000298x}) for the type I. and θ{sub x} = 19.6 + 12.8 (1-e{sup -0.00041x}) for the type II. 3. It was shown that the effects of the rise of water temperature for the type I. water warming canal were greater than that of type II. as a resultes of broadening the surface of the canal compared with the depth of water, coloring the surface of water canal and installing the resistance block. 4. In case of the type I. water warming canal, the equation between the air temperature and the degree of the rise of water temprature could be made; Y = 0.4134X + 7.728 In addition, in case of the type II. water warming canal, the correlation was very low. 5. A monthly variation of the water temperature in the water warming

  1. Temperature rise induced by various light curing units through human dentin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, Arife; Hubbezoglu, Ihsan; Dogan, Orhan Murat; Bolayir, Giray; Demir, Hakan

    2009-05-01

    This study investigated temperature rises caused by different light curing units (LCUs) in dentin of different thicknesses. The different LCUs tested in this study were namely: quartz-tungsten-halogen (QTH) (Heliolux DLX) LCU, plasma arc (PAC) (Apollo 95E Elite) LCU, and light emitting diode (LED) (Mini LED) in standard curing mode as well as pulse and soft-start modes. One hundred and forty dentin disks of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 mm thickness were prepared from mandibular molars (n=7). Temperatures were recorded using a L-type thermocouple in direct contact with the light guide tip. For all curing units/modes, dentin thickness was inversely proportional to temperature rise and that QTH light gave significantly higher values compared to PAC and LED in all the test conditions. The highest temperature rise was observed under 0.5-mm-thick dentin disk with QTH, whereas the lowest temperature rise was registered with LED light in pulse mode under 2-mm-thick dentin.

  2. Frictional Performance and Temperature Rise of a Mining Nonasbestos Brake Material during Emergency Braking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiusheng Bao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available By simulating emergency braking conditions of mine hoisters, tribological experiments of a mining nonasbestos brake material sliding on E355CC steel friction disc investigated a pad-on-disc friction tester. It is shown that, under combined influence of braking velocity and pressure, the lubricating film and micro-convex-apices on wear surface would have complex physicochemical reactions which make the instant friction coefficient rise gradually while the instant surface temperature rises first and then falls. With the antifriction effect from lubricating film and the desquamating of composite materials, the mean friction coefficient decreases first, then rises, and decreases again with the increasing of initial braking velocity. And with the existence of micro-convex-apices and variation from increment ratio of load and actual contacting area, it rises first and then falls with the increasing of braking pressure. However, the mean surface temperature rises obviously with the increasing of both initial braking velocity and braking pressure for growth of transformed kinetic energy. It is considered that the friction coefficient cannot be considered as a constant when designing brake devices for mine hoisters. And special attention should be paid to the serious influence of surface temperature on tribological performance of brake material during emergency braking.

  3. Intrapulpal Temperature Rise During Light Activation of Restorative Composites in a Primary Molar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinall, Craig V; Garcia-Silva, Tales C; Lou, Jennifer S B; Wells, Martha H; Tantbirojn, Daranee; Versluis, Antheunis

    2017-05-15

    To investigate intrapulpal temperature rise in a primary molar during light activation of a composite restoration to determine if clinically significant pulpal temperatures (greater than 5.5 degrees Celsius) were reached. Restorative composites (EsthetX HD, Filtek Supreme Ultra, Filtek Bulk Fill) were placed into a primary molar with occlusal preparation (1.5 mm depth; remaining pulpal floor thickness one mm). The pulp was extirpated through a root access to place a thermocouple against the pulpal roof. Temperature changes were recorded during composite restoration light polymerization with three curing lights (one quartz-tungsten-halogen, two LEDs). Sample size was 10. Samples received additional irradiation to assure complete polymerization, followed by a third irradiation for calculating the exothermic heat contribution (subtracting third irradiation temperatures from first irradiation temperatures). Cured restorations were removed after each test, and the tooth was reused. Results were analyzed with Kruskal-Wallis (α =0.05). Type of curing light and composite material affected the intrapulpal temperature rise, which was up to five degrees Celsius for one combination of LED-composite. Clinicians should be aware of the potential for clinically significant intrapulpal temperature rises when light-activating composite restorations in a primary molar with a moderately deep cavity.

  4. A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.

  5. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanh Dung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

  6. Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Brunke

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous analyses of the Earth’s annual cycle and its trends have utilized surface temperature data sets. Here we introduce a new analysis of the global and hemispheric annual cycle using a satellite remote sensing derived data set during the period 1979–2009, as determined from the lower tropospheric (LT channel of the MSU satellite. While the surface annual cycle is tied directly to the heating and cooling of the land areas, the tropospheric annual cycle involves additionally the gain or loss of heat between the surface and atmosphere. The peak in the global tropospheric temperature in the 30 year period occurs on 10 July and the minimum on 9 February in response to the larger land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. The actual dates of the hemispheric maxima and minima are a complex function of many variables which can change from year to year thereby altering these dates.Here we examine the time of occurrence of the global and hemispheric maxima and minima lower tropospheric temperatures, the values of the annual maxima and minima, and the slopes and significance of the changes in these metrics.  The statistically significant trends are all relatively small. The values of the global annual maximum and minimum showed a small, but significant trend. Northern and Southern Hemisphere maxima and minima show a slight trend toward occurring later in the year. Most recent analyses of trends in the global annual cycle using observed surface data have indicated a trend toward earlier maxima and minima.

  7. Very low temperature rise laser annealing of radiation-damaged solar cells in orbit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poulek, V.

    1988-01-01

    Solar cells of all space objects are damaged by radiation in orbit. This damage, however, can be removed by laser annealing. A new in-orbit laser regeneration system for both body- and spin-stabilized space objects is proposed. For successful annealing of solar cells damaged by 10 years' radiation dose in orbit it is necessary for the temperature rise in the incidence point of the laser beam to reach about 400 0 C. By continuous regeneration, however, between two annealing cycles the solar cells are hit by about two orders of magnitude lower radiation dose. This makes it possible to carry out the regeneration at a temperature rise well under 1 0 C! If an optimal laser regeneration system is used, such low temperature rise laser annealing of radiation-damaged solar cells is possible. A semiconductor GaAlAs diode laser with output power up to 10 mW CW was used for annealing. Some results of the very low temperature rise annealing experiment are given in this paper. (author)

  8. An experimental investigation of temperature rise during compaction of pharmaceutical powders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krok, Alexander; Mirtic, Andreja; Reynolds, Gavin K; Schiano, Serena; Roberts, Ron; Wu, Chuan-Yu

    2016-11-20

    During pharmaceutical powder compaction, temperature rise in the compressed powder can affect physiochemical properties of the powder, such as thermal degradation and change in crystallinity. Thus, it is of practical importance to understand the effect of process conditions and material properties on the thermal response of pharmaceutical formulations during compaction. The aim of this study was to examine the temperature rise of pharmaceutical powders during tableting, in particular, to explore how the temperature rise depends on material properties, compression speed and tablet shape. Three grades of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) were considered: MCC Avicel pH 101, MCC Avicel pH 102 and MCC DG. These powders were compressed using a compaction simulator at various compaction speeds (10-500mm/s). Flat faced, shallow convex and normal convex tablets were produced and temperature distributions on the surface of theses tablets upon ejection were examined using an infrared thermoviewer. It was found that an increase in the compaction speed led to an increase in the average surface temperature. A higher surface temperature was induced when the powder was compressed into a tablet with larger surface curvature. This was primarily due to the increasing degree of powder deformation (i.e. the volume reduction) and the effect of interparticule/wall friction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux; Gerard Grehan

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm 3 . The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  10. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire DSU/SERAC, BP 68, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Gerard Grehan [UMR 6614 CORIA, Laboratoire d' Electromagnetisme et Systemes Particulaires Site Universitaire du Madrillet, Avenue de l' universite BP 12, 76 801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, (France)

    2005-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm{sup 3}. The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  11. Dominant factors affecting temperature rise in simulations of human thermoregulation during RF exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laakso, Ilkka; Hirata, Akimasa

    2011-01-01

    Numerical models of the human thermoregulatory system can be used together with realistic voxel models of the human anatomy to simulate the body temperature increases caused by the power absorption from radio-frequency electromagnetic fields. In this paper, the Pennes bioheat equation with a thermoregulatory model is used for calculating local peak temperatures as well as the body-core-temperature elevation in a realistic human body model for grounded plane-wave exposures at frequencies 39, 800 and 2400 MHz. The electromagnetic power loss is solved by the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, and the discretized bioheat equation is solved by the geometric multigrid method. Human thermoregulatory models contain numerous thermophysiological and computational parameters—some of which may be subject to considerable uncertainty—that affect the simulated core and local temperature elevations. The goal of this paper is to find how greatly the computed temperature is influenced by changes in various modelling parameters, such as the skin blood flow rate, models for vasodilation and sweating, and clothing and air movement. The results show that the peak temperature rises are most strongly affected by the modelling of tissue blood flow and its temperature dependence, and mostly unaffected by the central control mechanism for vasodilation and sweating. Almost the opposite is true for the body-core-temperature rise, which is however typically greatly lower than the peak temperature rise. It also seems that ignoring the thermoregulation and the blood temperature increase is a good approximation when the local 10 g averaged specific absorption rate is smaller than 10 W kg −1 .

  12. Esterification of jatropha oil via ultrasonic irradiation with auto-induced temperature-rise effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade-Tacca, Cesar Augusto; Chang, Chia-Chi; Chen, Yi-Hung; Manh, Do-Van; Chang, Ching-Yuan; Ji, Dar-Ren; Tseng, Jyi-Yeong; Shie, Je-Lueng

    2014-01-01

    Auto-induced temperature-rise effects of ultrasonic irradiation (UI) on the esterification performance of jatropha oil (JO) were studied. Comparisons with other methods of mechanical mixing (MM) and hand shaking mixing were made. Major system parameters examined include: esterification time (t E ), settling time (t S ) after esterification and temperature. Properties of acid value (AV), iodine value (IV), kinematic viscosity (KV) and density of JO and ester product were measured. The esterification conversion efficiencies (η) were determined and assessed. Sulfuric acid was used to catalyze the esterification using methyl alcohol. For esterification without temperature control, η at t E  = 10 and 30 min for UI of 56.73 and 83.23% are much higher than those for MM of 36.76 and 42.48%, respectively. At t E  = 10 min, the jatropha oil esters produced via UI and MM respectively possess AV of 15.82 and 23.12 mg KOH/g, IV of 111.49 and 113.22 g I 2 /100 g, KV of 22.41 and 22.51 mm 2 /s and density of 913.8 and 913.58 kg/m 3 , showing that UI is much better than MM in enhancing the reduction of AV. The t E exhibits more vigorous effect on AV for UI than MM. The UI offers auto-induced temperature-rise, improving the mixing and esterification extents. - Highlights: • Esterification of jatropha oil is pronounced under ultrasonic irradiation (UI). • UI can auto-induce temperature rise. • The induced temperature rise assists the mixing of UI in enhancing esterification. • UI offers better esterification than mechanical mixing with external heating. • An 83.23% reduction of FFA in jatropha-ester is achievable via UI in 30 min

  13. Rising food costs & global food security: Key issues & relevance for India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    Rising food costs can have major impact on vulnerable households, pushing those least able to cope further into poverty and hunger. On the other hand, provided appropriate policies and infrastructure are in place, higher agricultural prices can also raise farmers’ incomes and rural wages, improve rural economies and stimulate investment for longer-term economic growth. High food prices since 2007 have had both short-term impacts and long-term consequences, both good and bad. This article reviews the evidence of how rising costs have affected global food security since the food price crisis of 2007-2008, and their impact on different categories of households and countries. In light of recent studies, we know more about how households, and countries, cope or not with food price shocks but a number of contentious issues remain. These include the adequacy of current estimates and the interpretation of national and household food and nutrition security indicators. India is a particularly important country in this regard, given the high number of food insecure, the relative weight of India in global estimates of food and nutrition insecurity, and the puzzles that remain concerning the country's reported declining per capita calorie consumption. Competing explanations for what is behind it are not in agreement, but these all point to the importance of policy and programme innovation and greater investment necessary to reach the achievable goal of food and nutrition security for all. PMID:24135190

  14. Rising food costs & global food security: Key issues & relevance for India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J Gustafson

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising food costs can have major impact on vulnerable households, pushing those least able to cope further into poverty and hunger. On the other hand, provided appropriate policies and infrastructure are in place, higher agricultural prices can also raise farmers′ incomes and rural wages, improve rural economies and stimulate investment for longer-term economic growth. High food prices since 2007 have had both short-term impacts and long-term consequences, both good and bad. This article reviews the evidence of how rising costs have affected global food security since the food price crisis of 2007-2008, and their impact on different categories of households and countries. In light of recent studies, we know more about how households, and countries, cope or not with food price shocks but a number of contentious issues remain. These include the adequacy of current estimates and the interpretation of national and household food and nutrition security indicators. India is a particularly important country in this regard, given the high number of food insecure, the relative weight of India in global estimates of food and nutrition insecurity, and the puzzles that remain concerning the country′s reported declining per capita calorie consumption. Competing explanations for what is behind it are not in agreement, but these all point to the importance of policy and programme innovation and greater investment necessary to reach the achievable goal of food and nutrition security for all.

  15. Rising food costs & global food security: key issues & relevance for India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Daniel J

    2013-09-01

    Rising food costs can have major impact on vulnerable households, pushing those least able to cope further into poverty and hunger. On the other hand, provided appropriate policies and infrastructure are in place, higher agricultural prices can also raise farmers' incomes and rural wages, improve rural economies and stimulate investment for longer-term economic growth. High food prices since 2007 have had both short-term impacts and long-term consequences, both good and bad. This article reviews the evidence of how rising costs have affected global food security since the food price crisis of 2007-2008, and their impact on different categories of households and countries. In light of recent studies, we know more about how households, and countries, cope or not with food price shocks but a number of contentious issues remain. These include the adequacy of current estimates and the interpretation of national and household food and nutrition security indicators. India is a particularly important country in this regard, given the high number of food insecure, the relative weight of India in global estimates of food and nutrition insecurity, and the puzzles that remain concerning the country's reported declining per capita calorie consumption. Competing explanations for what is behind it are not in agreement, but these all point to the importance of policy and programme innovation and greater investment necessary to reach the achievable goal of food and nutrition security for all.

  16. The Rise and Attenuation of the Basic Education Programme (BEP) in Botswana: A Global-Local Dialectic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabulawa, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Using a global-local dialectic approach, this paper traces the rise of the basic education programme in the 1980s and 1990s in Botswana and its subsequent attenuation in the 2000s. Amongst the local forces that led to the rise of BEP were Botswana's political project of nation-building; the country's dire human resources situation in the decades…

  17. Temperature rise during adhesive and composite polymerization with different light-curing sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira Da Silva, A; Alves Da Cunha, L; Pagani, C; De Mello Rode, S

    2010-05-01

    This study evaluated the temperature rise of the adhesive system Single Bond (SB) and the composite resins Filtek Z350 flow (Z) and Filtek Supreme (S), when polymerized by light-emitting diode (LED XL 3000) and quartz-tungsten halogen (QTH Biolux). Class V cavities (3 yen2 mm) were prepared in 80 bovine incisors under standardized conditions. The patients were divided as follows: G1: Control; G2: SB; G3: SB + Z; G4: SB + S. The groups were subdivided into two groups for polymerization (A: QTH, B: LED). Light curing was performed for 40 s and measurement of temperature changes during polymerization was performed with a thermocouple positioned inside the pulp chamber. Data were statistically analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey tests. The factors material (P<0.00001) and curing unit (P<0.00001) had significant influence on temperature rise. The lowest temperature increase (0.15 degrees C) was recorded in G2 B and the highest was induced in G1 A (0.75 degrees C, P<0.05). In all groups, lower pulp chamber temperature measurements were obtained when using LED compared to QTH (P<0.05). QTH caused greater increases in tooth temperature than LED. However, both sources did not increase pulpal temperature above the critical value that may cause pulpal damage.

  18. A temperature rise equation for predicting environmental impact and performance of cooling ponds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serag-Eldin, M.A. [American Univ. in Cairo, Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    Cooling ponds are used to cool the condenser water used in large central air-conditioning systems. However, larger cooling loads can often increase pond surface evaporation rates. A temperature-rise energy equation was developed to predict temperature rises in cooling ponds subjected to heating loads. The equation was designed to reduce the need for detailed meteorological data as well as to determine the required surface area and depth of the pond for any given design criteria. Energy equations in the presence and absence of cooling loads were subtracted from each other to determine increases in pond temperature resulting from the cooling load. The energy equations include solar radiation, radiation exchange with sky and surroundings, heat convection from the surface, evaporative cooling, heat conducted to the walls, and rate of change of water temperature. Results of the study suggested that the environmental impact and performance of the cooling pond is a function of temperature only. It was concluded that with the aid of the calculated flow field and temperature distribution, the method can be used to position sprays in order to produce near-uniform pond temperatures. 10 refs., 12 figs.

  19. Dynamic Temperature Rise Mechanism and Some Controlling Factors of Wet Clutch Engagement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhigang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The friction transmission model of wet clutch is established to analyze the friction transmission mechanism of its engagement. The model is developed by applying both the average flow model and the elastic contact model between the friction disk and separator plate. The key components during wet clutch engagement are the separator plate, friction disk, and lubricant. The one-dimension transient models of heat transfer in radial direction for the three components are built on the basis of the heat transfer theory and the conservation law of energy. The friction transmission model and transient heat transfer models are coupled and solved by using the Runge-Kutta numerical method, and the radial temperature distribution and their detailed parametric study for the three components are conducted separately. The simulation results show that the radial temperature for the three components rises with the increase of radius in engagement. The changes in engagement pressure, lubricant viscosity, friction lining permeability, combined surface roughness RMS, equivalent elasticity modulus, difference between dynamic and static friction coefficients, and lubricant flow have important influence on the temperature rise characteristics. The proposed models can get better understanding of the dynamic temperature rise characteristics of wet clutch engagement.

  20. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  1. Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) Data, 1985-present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) develops and maintains a global ocean temperature and salinity resource with data that are both up-to-date...

  2. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnacinski, P. [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Ship Electrical Power Engineering, Morska Street 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2008-04-15

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions. (author)

  3. Prediction of windings temperature rise in induction motors supplied with distorted voltage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnacinski, P.

    2008-01-01

    One of the features of ship power systems is a different level and intensity of disturbances appearing during routine operation - the rms voltage value and frequency deviation, voltage unbalance and waveform voltage distortion. As a result, marine induction machines are exposed to overheating due to the lowered voltage quality. This paper is devoted to windings temperature rise prediction in marine induction cage machines supplied with distorted voltage, which means real voltage conditions. The proposed method of prediction does not require detailed knowledge of the thermal properties of a machine. Although the method was developed for marine induction motors, it is applicable for industry machines supplied with distorted voltage. It can also be generalized and used for estimation of the steady state windings temperature rise of any electrical machinery in various work conditions

  4. Behavior of pressure rise and condensation caused by water evaporation under vacuum at high temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takase, Kazuyuki; Kunugi, Tomoaki; Yamazaki, Seiichiro; Fujii, Sadao

    1998-01-01

    Pressure rise and condensation characteristics during the ingress-of-coolant event (ICE) in fusion reactors were investigated using the preliminary ICE apparatus with a vacuum vessel (VV), an additional tank (AT) and an isolation valve (IV). A surface of the AT was cooled by water at RT. The high temperature and pressure water was injected into the VV which was heated up to 250degC and pressure and temperature transients in the VV were measured. The pressure increased rapidly with an injection time of the water because of the water evaporation. After the IV was opened and the VV was connected with the AT, the pressure in the VV decreased suddenly. From a series of the experiments, it was confirmed that control factors on the pressure rise were the flushing evaporation and boiling heat transfer in the VV, and then, condensation of the vapor after was effective to the depressurization in the VV. (author)

  5. Theoretical estimation of adiabatic temperature rise from the heat flow data obtained from a reaction calorimeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Parichay K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This method for estimating ΔT ad (t) against time in a semi-batch reactor is distinctively pioneer and novel. ► It has established uniquely a direct correspondence between the evolution of ΔT ad (t) in RC and C A (t) in a semi-batch reactor. ► Through a unique reaction scheme, the independent effects of heat of mixing and reaction on ΔT ad (t) has been demonstrated quantitatively. ► This work will help to build a thermally safe corridor of a thermally hazard reaction. ► This manuscript, the author believes will open a new vista for further research in Adiabatic Calorimetry. - Abstract: A novel method for estimating the transient profile of adiabatic rise in temperature has been developed from the heat flow data for exothermic chemical reactions that are conducted in reaction calorimeter (RC). It has also been mathematically demonstrated by the present design that there exists a direct qualitative equivalence between the temporal evolution of the adiabatic temperature rise and the concentration of the limiting reactant for an exothermic chemical reaction, carried out in semi batch mode. The proposed procedure shows that the adiabatic temperature rise will always be less than that of the reaction executed at batch mode thereby affording a thermally safe corridor. Moreover, a unique reaction scheme has been designed to establish the independent heat effect of dissolution and reaction quantitatively. It is hoped that the testimony of the transient adiabatic temperature rise that can be prepared by the proposed method, may provide ample scope for further research.

  6. Hydro-galvanic and rising - temperature bath therapy for chronic elbow epicondylitis: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mucha

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available The efficacy of two different regimens of physiotherapy for epicondylitis was compared. A combination treatment with hydrogalvanic four-cell bath and arm bath with rising temperature, which had showed good effects in treatment of tennis elbow in an earlier observational study (Mucha 1987, was compared with the analgesic interference current treatment often recommended in the literature (Sadil and Sadil 1994, Noteboom et al 1994, Becker and Reuter 1982. For this study, 60 patients with epicondylitis that was resistant to conservative treatment were randomized into two groups for comparison. In group 1, interference currents were administered twice a day for six weeks and group 2 received combination treatment with the hydrogalvanic four-cell bath and rising- temperature arm bath once a day for six weeks. Criteria for inclusion, control and appraisal were laid down prospectively. Several parameters were used, recorded and statistically evaluated as outcome measures.  These were active joint range of movement of the elbow, grip strength, pain provocation with muscle contraction, palpation pain and pain with functional activities.  The results showed a significant superiority of combination treatment over therapy with interference current. It is therefore recommended that hydrogalvanic four-cell bath and arm bath with rising temperature should be carried out before considering surgical treatment for chronic epicondylitis.

  7. Operating experiences since rise-to-power test in high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tochio, Daisuke; Watanabe, Shuji; Motegi, Toshihiro; Kawano, Shuichi; Kameyama, Yasuhiko; Sekita, Kenji; Kawasaki, Kozo

    2007-03-01

    The rise-to-power test of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) was actually started in April 2000. The rated thermal power of 30MW and the rated reactor outlet coolant temperature of 850degC were achieved in the middle of Dec. 2001. After that, the reactor thermal power of 30MW and the reactor outlet coolant temperature of 950degC were achieved in the final rise-to-power test in April 2004. After receiving the operation licensing at 850degC, the safety demonstration tests have conducted to demonstrate inherent safety features of the HTGRs as well as to obtain the core and plant transient data for validation of safety analysis codes and for establishment of safety design and evaluation technologies. This paper summarizes the HTTR operating experiences for six years from start of the rise-to-power test that are categorized into (1) Operating experiences related to advanced gas-cooled reactor design, (2) Operating experiences for improvement of the performance, (3) Operating experiences due to fail of system and components. (author)

  8. Numerical Analysis on Temperature Rise of a Concrete Arch Dam after Sealing Based on Measured Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingbin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The thermal boundary conditions in the construction and operation phases of a concrete arch dam are always complex. After sealing, differences between the arch dam temperature and its sealing temperature can cause compressive or tensile stresses. Based on measured temperature of an arch dam located in China, a temperature rise phenomenon (TRP is found in the after-sealed regions of the arch dam. By mining and analyzing the temperature data of various monitoring apparatus embedded in the arch dam, higher environment temperature is considered to be the main cause for the occurrence of the TRP. Mathematical methods for complex thermal boundary conditions, including external boundary conditions and internal heat source conditions, are proposed in this paper. A finite element model is implemented with the concern of the construction phase and operation phase of the arch dam. Results confirm good agreement with the measured temperature and verify the conjecture that the TRP occurs mainly because the external temperature of the arch dam is higher than its sealing temperature.

  9. The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickering, M. D.; Horsburgh, K. J.; Blundell, J. R.; Hirschi, J. J.-M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Verlaan, M.; Wells, N. C.

    2017-06-01

    Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at 10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

  10. Effect of LED and Argon Laser on Degree of Conversion and Temperature Rise of Hybrid and Low Shrinkage Composite Resins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahlevan, Ayob; Tabatabaei, Masumeh Hasani; Arami, Sakineh; Valizadeh, Sara

    2016-01-01

    Different light curing units are used for polymerization of composite resins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the degree of conversion (DC) and temperature rise in hybrid and low shrinkage composite resins cured by LED and Argon Laser curing lights. DC was measured using FTIR spectroscopy. For measuring temperature rise, composite resin samples were placed in Teflon molds and cured from the top. The thermocouple under samples recorded the temperature rise. After initial radiation and specimens reaching the ambient temperature, reirradiation was done and temperature was recorded again. Both temperature rise and DC data submitted to one-way ANOVA and Tukey-HSD tests (5% significance). The obtained results revealed that DC was not significantly different between the understudy composite resins or curing units. Low shrinkage composite resin showed a significantly higher temperature rise than hybrid composite resin. Argon laser caused the lowest temperature rise among the curing units. Energy density of light curing units was correlated with the DC. Type of composite resin and light curing unit had a significant effect on temperature rise due to polymerization and curing unit, respectively.

  11. Assessment of Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET in Transitional Spaces of a High-Rise Building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nooriati Taib

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One passive approach that can significantly reduce energy usage in high-rise buildings is through the creation of non-air conditioned spaces such as transitional spaces. Optimizing passive design would reduce wastage associated with the building’s energy consumption. The study measures the thermal comfort of three types of transitional spaces (sky court, balcony, and rooftop in a high-rise office building. Based on the assessment of Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET, the outcome showed significant differences in PET in all locations in both wet and dry season. The effectiveness of such area can be improved with the contributions of landscape, maximizing natural ventilation and day lighting where possible.

  12. Control rod position and temperature coefficients in HTTR power-rise tests. Interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimoto, Nozomu; Nojiri, Naoki; Takada, Eiji; Saito, Kenji; Kobayashi, Shoichi; Sawahata, Hiroaki; Kokusen, Sigeru

    2001-03-01

    Power-rise tests of the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) have been carried out aiming to achieve 100% power. So far, 50% of power operation and many tests have been carried out. In the HTTR, temperature change in core is so large to achieve the outlet coolant temperature of 950degC. To improve the calculation accuracy of the HTTR reactor physics characteristics, control rod positions at criticality and temperature coefficients were measured at each step to achieve 50% power level. The calculations were carried out using Monte Carlo code and diffusion theory with temperature distributions in the core obtained by reciprocal calculation of thermo-hydraulic code and diffusion theory. Control rod positions and temperature coefficients were calculated by diffusion theory and Monte Carlo method. The test results were compared to calculation results. The control rod positions at criticality showed good agreement with calculation results by Monte Carlo method with error of 50 mm. The control position at criticality at 100% was predicted around 2900mm. Temperature coefficients showed good agreement with calculation results by diffusion theory. The improvement of calculation will be carried out comparing the measured results up to 100% power level. (author)

  13. Fuel properties effect on the performance of a small high temperature rise combustor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta, Waldo A.; Beckel, Stephen A.

    1989-01-01

    The performance of an advanced small high temperature rise combustor was experimentally determined at NASA-Lewis. The combustor was designed to meet the requirements of advanced high temperature, high pressure ratio turboshaft engines. The combustor featured an advanced fuel injector and an advanced segmented liner design. The full size combustor was evaluated at power conditions ranging from idle to maximum power. The effect of broad fuel properties was studied by evaluating the combustor with three different fuels. The fuels used were JP-5, a blend of Diesel Fuel Marine/Home Heating Oil, and a blend of Suntec C/Home Heating Oil. The fuel properties effect on the performance of the combustion in terms of pattern factor, liner temperatures, and exhaust emissions are documented.

  14. Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

    2017-12-01

    Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

  15. Study of the temperature rise induced by a focusing transducer with a wide aperture angle on biological tissue containing ribs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xin; Lin Jiexing; Liu Xiaozhou; Liu Jiehui; Gong Xiufen

    2016-01-01

    We used the spheroidal beam equation to calculate the sound field created by focusing a transducer with a wide aperture angle to obtain the heat deposition, and then we used the Pennes bioheat equation to calculate the temperature field in biological tissue with ribs and to ascertain the effects of rib parameters on the temperature field. The results show that the location and the gap width between the ribs have a great influence on the axial and radial temperature rise of multilayer biological tissue. With a decreasing gap width, the location of the maximum temperature rise moves forward; as the ribs are closer to the transducer surface, the sound energy that passes through the gap between the ribs at the focus decreases, the maximum temperature rise decreases, and the location of the maximum temperature rise moves forward with the ribs. (paper)

  16. Influence of whitening gel on pulp chamber temperature rise by in-office bleaching technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Cordeiro Loretto

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Dental bleaching is a conservative method for the aesthetic restoration of stained teeth. However, whitening treatments are likely to cause adverse effects when not well planned and executed. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the influence of whitening gel on temperature rise in the pulp chamber, using the in-office photoactivated dental bleaching technique. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The root portion of an upper central human incisor was sectioned 3mm below the cemento-enamel junction. The root canal was enlarged to permit the insertion of the K-type thermocouple sensor (MT-401 into the pulp chamber, which was filled with thermal paste to facilitate the transfer of heat during bleaching. Three photosensitive whitening agents (35% hydrogen peroxide were used: Whiteness HP (FGM, Whiteness HP Maxx (FGM and Lase Peroxide Sensy (DMC. An LED photocuring light (Flash Lite - Discus Dental was used to activate the whitening gels. Six bleaching cycles were performed on each group tested. The results were submitted to one-way ANOVA and LSD t-test (α<0.05. RESULT: The lowest mean temperature variation (ºC was detected for Lase Peroxide Sensy (0.20, while the highest was recorded for Whiteness HP (1.50. CONCLUSION: The Whiteness HP and Whiteness HP Maxx whitening gels significantly affected the temperature rise in the pulp chamber during bleaching, and this variation was dependent on the type of whitening gel used.

  17. Evaluation of temperature rise in a tissue mimicking material during HIFU exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruvada, S; Liu, Y; Herman, B A; Harris, G R

    2011-01-01

    In pre-clinical testing it is essential to characterize clinical high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) devices using tissue-mimicking materials (TMMs) with well known characteristics, including temperature rise and cavitation properties. The purpose of this study was to monitor cavitation behavior and correlate its effect with temperature rise in a HIFU TMM containing an embedded thermocouple. A 75-μm fine wire thermocouple was embedded in a hydrogel-based TMM previously developed for HIFU. HIFU at 1.1 and 3.3 MHz was focused at the thermocouple junction. Focal pressures from 1-11 MPa were applied and the temperature profiles were recorded. Three hydrophones were used to monitor cavitation activity during sonication. A hydrophone confocal with the HIFU transducer and a cylindrical hydrophone lateral to the HIFU beam were used as passive cavitation detectors for spectral analysis of signals, and a needle hydrophone placed beyond the HIFU focus was used to record changes in the pressure amplitude due to blockage by bubbles at or near the focus. B-mode imaging scans were employed to visualize bubble presence during sonication. In a separate measurement, schlieren imaging was used to monitor the change in field distribution behind the TMM. All hydrophone methods correlated well with cavitation in the TMM.

  18. Evaluation of temperature rise in a tissue mimicking material during HIFU exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruvada, S; Liu, Y; Herman, B A; Harris, G R, E-mail: subha.maruvada@fda.hhs.gov [Food and Drug Administration, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, 10903 New Hampshire Ave., Bldg., Silver Spring, MD 20993 (United States)

    2011-02-01

    In pre-clinical testing it is essential to characterize clinical high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) devices using tissue-mimicking materials (TMMs) with well known characteristics, including temperature rise and cavitation properties. The purpose of this study was to monitor cavitation behavior and correlate its effect with temperature rise in a HIFU TMM containing an embedded thermocouple. A 75-{mu}m fine wire thermocouple was embedded in a hydrogel-based TMM previously developed for HIFU. HIFU at 1.1 and 3.3 MHz was focused at the thermocouple junction. Focal pressures from 1-11 MPa were applied and the temperature profiles were recorded. Three hydrophones were used to monitor cavitation activity during sonication. A hydrophone confocal with the HIFU transducer and a cylindrical hydrophone lateral to the HIFU beam were used as passive cavitation detectors for spectral analysis of signals, and a needle hydrophone placed beyond the HIFU focus was used to record changes in the pressure amplitude due to blockage by bubbles at or near the focus. B-mode imaging scans were employed to visualize bubble presence during sonication. In a separate measurement, schlieren imaging was used to monitor the change in field distribution behind the TMM. All hydrophone methods correlated well with cavitation in the TMM.

  19. Global temperature stability by rule induction: An interdisciplinary bridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, J.D.; Grzymala-Busse, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Rules incorporating influences on global temperature, an estimate of radiation balance, were induced from astronomical, geophysical, and anthropogenic variables. During periods of intermediate global temperatures (generally like the present century), the influences assume canceling roles; influences cancel the effects of extreme states potentially imposed by other influences because they are, in aggregate, most likely to be assuming opposite values. This imparts an overall stability to the global temperature. To achieve cold or hot global temperature, influences assume reinforcing roles. CO 2 is an active influence on global temperature. By virtue of its constancy in the atmosphere, it can be expected to sponsor frequent hot years in combination with the other influences as they cycle through their periods. If measures were implemented to maintain warm or cool global temperatures, it could retain the status quo of present global agricultural regions. They are probably more productive than hot world regions would be because of narrow storm tracks

  20. Detecting anthropogenic footprints in regional and global sea level rise since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, S.; Marcos, M.; Piecuch, C. G.; Jensen, J.

    2015-12-01

    While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) is rising since the late 19th century, it remains unclear how much of this rise is due to natural variability or anthropogenic forcing. Distinguishing both contributions requires an extensive knowledge about the persistence of natural high and low stands in GMSL and LMSL. This is challenging, since observational time series represent the superposition of various processes with different spectral properties. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL (corrected for vertical land motion) into a slowly varying volumetric (mass and density changes) and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. Based on a combination of spectral analyses of tide gauge records, barotropic and baroclinic ocean models and numerical Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectra, the persistence of natural volumetric changes tends to be underestimated. If each component is assessed separately, natural centennial trends are locally up to ~1.0 mm/yr larger than in case of an integrated assessment, therefore erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.

  1. Temperature rise of the mask-resist assembly during LIGA exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ting, Aili

    2004-01-01

    Deep X-ray lithography on PMMA resist is used in the LIGA process. The resist is exposed to synchrotron X-rays through a patterned mask and then is developed in a liquid developer to make high aspect ratio microstructures. The limitations in dimensional accuracies of the LIGA generated microstructure originate from many sources, including synchrotron and X-ray physics, thermal and mechanical properties of mask and resist, and from the kinetics of the developer. This work addresses the thermal analysis and temperature rise of the mask-resist assembly during exposure in air at the Advanced Light Source (ALS) synchrotron. The concern is that dimensional errors generated at the mask and the resist due to thermal expansion will lower the accuracy of the lithography. We have developed a three-dimensional finite-element model of the mask and resist assembly that includes a mask with absorber, a resist with substrate, three metal holders, and a water-cooling block. We employed the LIGA exposure-development software LEX-D to calculate volumetric heat sources generated in the assembly by X-ray absorption and the commercial software ABAQUS to calculate heat transfer including thermal conduction inside the assembly, natural and forced convection, and thermal radiation. at assembly outer and/or inner surfaces. The calculations of assembly maximum temperature. have been compared with temperature measurements conducted at ALS. In some of these experiments, additional cooling of the assembly was produced by forced nitrogen flow ('nitrogen jets') directed at the mask surface. The temperature rise in the silicon mask and the mask holder comes directly from the X-ray absorption, but nitrogen jets carry away a significant portion of heat energy from the mask surface, while natural convection carries away negligibly small amounts energy from the holder. The temperature rise in PMMA resist is mainly from heat conducted from the silicon substrate backward to the resist and from the inner

  2. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  3. Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaves, Luis Fernando

    2016-11-01

    It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

  4. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  5. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  6. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  7. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  8. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  9. Predatory and fake scientific journals/publishers: A global outbreak with rising trend: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukić Tin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent times some publishers are intensively exploiting the model of open access publishing. During the last several years, studies have shown that there was a substantial increase in the number of fake publishers and hijacked journals. These cyber criminals make money by stealing the identities of legitimate journals and collecting the article processing charges on the papers that are submitted. This is all accomplished by a well developed framework that includes web development steps, intensive e-mail marketing and victim selections. This review article strives to recommend that the Beall's list of predatory publishers and journals should be consulted every time when an author plans to submit scientific work to some of the journals that are indexed by Thomson Reuters/Institute for Scientific Information-ISI and covered by the Journal Citation Report. Also, the authors are advised to be 'up to date' with new information regarding this controversial topic by informing themselves through various web-sites and specialized scientific portals. The review paper itself strives to summarize the most recent investigations on predatory and spurious journals/publishers which affect the entire scientific community, thus representing an outbreak with rising trend not only on national and regional level, but on global level as well.

  10. Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori D. Bothwell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Decomposing litter in forest ecosystems supplies nutrients to plants, carbon to heterotrophic soil microorganisms and is a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Despite its essential role in carbon and nutrient cycling, the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter decay in tropical forest ecosystems remains poorly resolved, especially in tropical montane wet forests where the warming trend may be amplified compared to tropical wet forests at lower elevations. We quantified leaf litter decomposition rates along a highly constrained 5.2 °C mean annual temperature (MAT gradient in tropical montane wet forests on the Island of Hawaii. Dominant vegetation, substrate type and age, soil moisture, and disturbance history are all nearly constant across this gradient, allowing us to isolate the effect of rising MAT on leaf litter decomposition and nutrient release. Leaf litter decomposition rates were a positive linear function of MAT, causing the residence time of leaf litter on the forest floor to decline by ∼31 days for each 1 °C increase in MAT. Our estimate of the Q10 temperature coefficient for leaf litter decomposition was 2.17, within the commonly reported range for heterotrophic organic matter decomposition (1.5–2.5 across a broad range of ecosystems. The percentage of leaf litter nitrogen (N remaining after six months declined linearly with increasing MAT from ∼88% of initial N at the coolest site to ∼74% at the warmest site. The lack of net N immobilization during all three litter collection periods at all MAT plots indicates that N was not limiting to leaf litter decomposition, regardless of temperature. These results suggest that leaf litter decay in tropical montane wet forests may be more sensitive to rising MAT than in tropical lowland wet forests, and that increased rates of N release from decomposing litter could delay or prevent progressive N limitation to net primary productivity with climate warming.

  11. Forage quality declines with rising temperatures, with implications for livestock production and methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Mark A.; Davis, Aaron P.; Chagunda, Mizeck G. G.; Manning, Pete

    2017-03-01

    Livestock numbers are increasing to supply the growing demand for meat-rich diets. The sustainability of this trend has been questioned, and future environmental changes, such as climate change, may cause some regions to become less suitable for livestock. Livestock and wild herbivores are strongly dependent on the nutritional chemistry of forage plants. Nutrition is positively linked to weight gains, milk production and reproductive success, and nutrition is also a key determinant of enteric methane production. In this meta-analysis, we assessed the effects of growing conditions on forage quality by compiling published measurements of grass nutritive value and combining these data with climatic, edaphic and management information. We found that forage nutritive value was reduced at higher temperatures and increased by nitrogen fertiliser addition, likely driven by a combination of changes to species identity and changes to physiology and phenology. These relationships were combined with multiple published empirical models to estimate forage- and temperature-driven changes to cattle enteric methane production. This suggested a previously undescribed positive climate change feedback, where elevated temperatures reduce grass nutritive value and correspondingly may increase methane production by 0.9 % with a 1 °C temperature rise and 4.5 % with a 5 °C rise (model average), thus creating an additional climate forcing effect. Future methane production increases are expected to be largest in parts of North America, central and eastern Europe and Asia, with the geographical extent of hotspots increasing under a high emissions scenario. These estimates require refinement and a greater knowledge of the abundance, size, feeding regime and location of cattle, and the representation of heat stress should be included in future modelling work. However, our results indicate that the cultivation of more nutritious forage plants and reduced livestock farming in warming regions

  12. Experimental study of slight temperature rise combustion in trapped vortex combustors for gas turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, R.C.; Fan, W.J.; Xing, F.; Song, S.W.; Shi, Q.; Tian, G.H.; Tan, W.L.

    2015-01-01

    Interstage turbine combustion used for improving efficiency of gas turbine was a new type of combustion mode. Operating conditions and technical requirements for this type of combustor were different from those of traditional combustor. It was expected to achieve engineering application in both ground-based and aviation gas turbine in the near future. In this study, a number of modifications in a base design were applied and examined experimentally. The trapped-vortex combustion technology was adopted for flame stability under high velocity conditions, and the preheating-fuel injection technology was used to improve the atomization and evaporation performance of liquid fuel. The experimental results indicated that stable and efficient combustion with slight temperature-rise can be achieved under the high velocity conditions of combustor inlet. Under all experimental conditions, the excess air coefficients of ignition and lean blow-out were larger than 7 and 20, respectively; pollutant emission index of NO x and the maximum wall temperature were below 2.5 g/(kg fuel) and 1050 K, respectively. Moreover, the effects of fuel injection and overall configuration on the combustion characteristics were analyzed in detail. The number increase, area increase and depth increase of fuel injectors had different influences on the stability, combustion characteristic and temperature distribution. - Highlights: • The combustion mode of slight temperature-rise (200 K) was achieved. • Effect of fuel and air injection on stability characteristic was investigated. • Impact of overall configuration on combustion performance was analyzed. • The feasibility of scheme was determined.

  13. The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hussainy, F.M.

    1995-08-01

    This paper presented the relationship between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  14. NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is derived from two independent analyses: the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  16. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  17. Global Discourses and Power/Knowledge: Theoretical Reflections on Futures of Higher Education during the Rise of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geerlings, L. R. C.; Lundberg, A.

    2018-01-01

    This paper re-reads a selection of critical interdisciplinary theories in an attempt to open a space in higher education for cross-cultural dialogue during the rise of Asia. Theories of globalization, deterritorialization, power/knowledge and postcolonialism indicate that students and academics have the ability to re-imagine and influence…

  18. Comparison of temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units: An in-vitro study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh Ebenezar, A V; Anilkumar, R; Indira, R; Ramachandran, S; Srinivasan, M R

    2010-07-01

    This in vitro study was designed to measure and compare the temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units. The study was done in two settings-in-vitro and in-vivo simulation. In in-vitro setting, 3mm and 6mm acrylic spacers with 4mm tip diameter thermocouple was used and six groups were formed according to the light curing source- 3 Quartz-Tungsten-Halogen (QTH) units and 3 Light-Emitting-Diode (LED) units. For the LED units, three modes of curing like pulse-cure mode, fast mode and ramp mode were used. For in-vivo simulation, 12 caries free human third molar tooth with fused root were used. K-type thermocouple with 1 mm tip diameter was used. Occlusal cavity was prepared, etched, rinsed with water and blot dried; bonding agent was applied and incremental curing of composite was done. Thermal emission for each light curing agent was noted. Temperature rise was very minimal in LED light cure units than in QTH light cure units in both the settings. Temperature rise was minimal at 6mm distance when compared to 3 mm distance. Among the various modes, fast mode produces the less temperature rise. Temperature rise in all the light curing units was well within the normal range of pulpal physiology. Temperature rise caused due to light curing units does not result in irreversible pulpal damage.

  19. Calculation of temperature rise for cable conductor of DCS cabinet power based on theory of numerical thermal transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Yong; Zhang Longqiang; Yang Zhen; Yu Bin

    2014-01-01

    In order to ensure a long-term reliable operation of the DCS cabinet's 220 V AC power cable, it was needed to confirm whether the conductor temperature rise of power cable meet the requirement of the cable specification. Based on the actual data in site and the theory of numerical heat transfer, conservative model was established, and the conductor temperature was calculated. The calculation results show that the cable arrangement on the cable tray will not lead to the conductor temperature rise of power cable over than the required temperature in technical specification. (authors)

  20. Influence of dump voltage and allowable temperature rise on stabilizer requirements in superconducting coils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwenterly, S.W.

    1988-01-01

    A superconducting winding must have enough stabilizer to satisfy two sets of criteria. During normal operation, the amount of stabilizer must be large enough either to make the coil unconditionally stable or to give a certain desired stability margin. Once a dump occurs, the amount of stabilizer must be large enough to carry the current without generating excessive dump voltages or allowing the winding to exceed a certain maximum temperature (and maximum pressure, in the case of force-cooled coils). The voltage criterion often dominates for very large coil systems, but it is frequently ignored in initial design studies. This paper gives some simple relations between the dump voltage and the stored energy, temperature rise, and coil geometry that are useful in scooping the required amount of stabilizer. Comparison with some recently proposed fusion magnet system designs indicates that excessive dump voltages could result in some cases. High-temperature superconductors may require more stabilizer than the conventional alloys. Calculations with simple model coil systems indicate how trade-offs between various coil parameters affect the dump voltage. 12 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  1. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

  2. Characterization of polypropylene–polyethylene blends by temperature rising elution and crystallization analysis fractionation

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Hierro, Pilar

    2010-01-01

    The introduction of single-site catalysts in the polyolefins industry opens new routes to design resins with improved performance through multicatalyst-multireactor processes. Physical combination of various polyolefin types in a secondary extrusion process is also a common practice to achieve new products with improved properties. The new resins have complex structures, especially in terms of composition distribution, and their characterization is not always an easy task. Techniques like temperature rising elution fractionation (TREF) or crystallization analysis fractionation (CRYSTAF) are currently used to characterize the composition distribution of these resins. It has been shown that certain combinations of polyolefins may result in equivocal results if only TREF or CRYSTAF is used separately for their characterization. PMID:20730530

  3. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

    2018-05-01

    The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

  4. Observations of temperature rise during electron cyclotron heating application in Proto-MPEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewer, T. M.; Bigelow, T.; Caneses, J. F.; Diem, S. J.; Rapp, J.; Reinke, M.; Kafle, N.; Ray, H. B.; Showers, M.

    2017-10-01

    The Prototype Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (Proto-MPEX) at ORNL utilizes a variety of power systems to generate and deliver a high heat flux plasma (1 MW/m2 for these discharges) onto the surface of material targets. In the experiments described here, up to 120 kW of 13.56 MHz ``helicon'' waves are combined with 20 kW of 28 GHz microwaves to produce Deuterium plasma discharges. The 28 GHz waves are launched in a region of the device where the magnetic field is axially varying near 0.8 T, resulting in the presence of a 2nd harmonic electron cyclotron heating (ECH) resonance layer that transects the plasma column. The electron density and temperature profiles are measured using a Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostic, and indicate that the electron density is radially peaked. In the core of the plasma column the electron density is higher than the cut-off density (0.9x1019 m-3) for ECH waves to propagate and O-X-B mode conversion into electron Bernstien waves (EBW) is expected. TS measurements indicate electron temperature increases during 28 GHz wave application, rising (from 5 eV to 20 eV) as the neutral Deuterium pressure is reduced below 1 mTorr. This work was supported by the US. D.O.E. contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

  5. An alternative method to record rising temperatures during dental implant site preparation: a preliminary study using bovine bone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenica Laurito

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Overheating is constantly mentioned as a risk factor for bone necrosis that could compromise the dental implant primary stability. Uncontrolled thermal injury can result in a fibrous tissue, interpositioned at the implant-bone interface, compromising the long-term prognosis. The methods used to record temperature rise include either direct recording by thermocouple instruments or indirect estimating by infrared thermography. This preliminary study was carried out using bovine bone and a different method of temperatures rising estimation is presented. Two different types of drills were tested using fluoroptic thermometer and the effectiveness of this alternative temperature recording method was evaluated.

  6. Predicted peak temperature-rises around a high-level radioactive waste canister emplaced in the deep ocean bed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kipp, K.L.

    1978-06-01

    A simple mathematical model of heat conduction was used to evaluate the peak temperature-rise along the wall of a canister of high-level radioactive waste buried in deep ocean sediment. Three different amounts of vitrified waste, corresponding to standard Harvest, large Harvest, and AVM canisters, and three different waste loadings were studied. Peak temperature-rise was computed for the nine cases as a function of canister geometry and storage time between reprocessing and burial. Lower waste loadings or longer storage times than initially envisaged are necessary to prevent the peak temperature-rise from exceeding 200 0 C. The use of longer, thinner cylinders only modestly reduces the storage time for a given peak temperature. Effects of stacking of waste canisters and of close-packing were also studied. (author)

  7. Global Mobility and Rising Inequality: A Cross-National Study of Immigration, Poverty, and Social Cohesion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Laura C.; Rutkowski, Leslie; Rutkowski, David

    2014-01-01

    With globalization, the world has become more interconnected and interdependent, with people, capital, and ideas rapidly migrating across borders. Yet, along with greater global interdependence and increased diversity within societies, economic and social inequalities have deepened, making poverty one of the leading global problems. To lessen…

  8. Geomagnetic activity and the global temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 4 (2009), s. 571-573 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : global warming * Southern Oscillation * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009

  9. Impacts of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise on Service Life of Chloride-Exposed Concrete Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jian Gao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will increase the rate of chloride ingress and the rate of steel corrosion of concrete structures. Furthermore, in coastal (atmospheric marine zones, sea level rise will reduce the distance of concrete structures from the coast and increase the surface chloride content. This study proposes a probabilistic model for analyzing the effects of global warming and sea level rise on the service life of coastal concrete structures. First, in the corrosion initiation stage, an improved chloride diffusion model is proposed to determine chloride concentration. The Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate the service life in the corrosion initiation stage; Second, in the corrosion propagation stage, a numerical model is proposed to calculate the rate of corrosion, probability of corrosion cracking, and service life. Third, overall service life is determined as the sum of service life in the corrosion initiation and corrosion propagation stages. After considering the impacts of global warming and sea level rise, the analysis results show that for concrete structures having a service life of 50 years, the service life decreases by about 5%.

  10. Numerical method for analysis of temperature rises and thermal stresses around high level radioactive waste repository in granite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimooka, Hiroshi

    1982-01-01

    The disposal of high-level radioactive waste should result in temperature rises and thermal stresses which change the hydraulic conductivity of the rock around the repository. For safety analysis on disposal of high-level radioactive waste into hard rock, it is necessary to find the temperature rises and thermal stresses distributions around the repository. In this paper, these distribution changes are analyzed by the use of the finite difference method. In advance of numerical analysis, it is required to simplify the shapes and properties of the repository and the rock. Several kinds of numerical models are prepared, and the results of this analysis are examined. And, the waste disposal methods are discussed from the stand-points of the temperature rise and thermal stress analysis. (author)

  11. Experimental study on solid state reduction of chromite with rising temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kekkonen, M.; Syynimaa, A.; Holappa, L.

    1998-07-01

    The solid state reduction of preoxidized sintered chromite pellets, raw pellets, process pellets and lumpy ores have been studied with rising temperature 700-1520 deg C under CO-atmosphere in order to better simulate the conditions in the upper part of a real submerged arc furnace. According to the reduction degree curves the reduction behaviour of chromite pellets seems to be similar. The reduction rate was slow at the beginning but increased rapidly when the temperature reached about 1000 deg C. The final reduction degree was highest in the case of process pellets and lowest in the case of raw pellet. In the case of preoxidized pellets there was not much difference of the reduction rate and final reduction degree between different oxidation states. In the case of lumpy ores the reduction rate and the final reduction degree was much lower compared to the pellets. Optical photographs, phase and microanalysis show that the reduction has proceeded further in the surface of the samples and confirmed also that the reduction degree remained lower in the case of raw pellet and lumpy ores which was also seen from the reduction degree curves. According to the experiments in the case of preoxidized pellets the effect of oxidation state on the reduction rate was not observed due to small difference in the oxidation state of the samples. But when comparing the reduction of preoxidized pellets and unoxidised raw pellet we can say that preoxidation promotes the reduction. The final reduction degree of the raw pellet remained lower than in the case of preoxidized pellets. (orig.)

  12. Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Lopez-Moreno, Juan-I; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; García-Ruiz, José M; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesús; Beguería, Santiago; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trigo, Ricardo; Coelho, Fatima; Espejo, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future. (paper)

  13. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  14. Comment on 'The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.; Nicholls, R.J.; Brown, S.; Hinkel, J.; Vafeidis, A.T.; Spencer, T.

    2016-01-01

    Pycroft et al. (Environ Resour Econ 1–29, 2015) used incorrect and outdated data to study the economic impact of sea level rise. They misinterpret some of their input data, and fail to exploit the strengths of their computable general equilibrium model and previously developed methods to study

  15. Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20

  16. CFD analysis of flow distribution of reactor core and temperature rise of coolant in fuel assembly for VVER reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Daiquan; Zeng Xiaokang; Xiong Wanyu; Yang Xiaoqiang

    2015-01-01

    Flow field of VVER-1000 reactor core was investigated by using computational fluid dynamics code CFX, and the temperature rise of coolant in hot assembly was calculated. The results show that the maximum value of flow distribution factor is 1.12 and the minimum value is 0.92. The average value of flow distribution factor in hot assembly is 0.97. The temperature rise in hot assembly is higher than current warning limit value ΔT t under the deviated operation condition. The results can provide reference for setting ΔT t during the operation of nuclear power plant. (authors)

  17. Global 1-km Sea Surface Temperature (G1SST)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — JPL OurOcean Portal: A daily, global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set is produced at 1-km (also known as ultra-high resolution) by the JPL ROMS (Regional Ocean...

  18. Effect of composite resin polymerization modes on temperature rise in human dentin of different thicknesses: an in vitro study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baggio Aguiar, Flavio Henrique; Kanda Peres Barros, Gisele; Alves Nunes Leite Lima, Debora; Bovi Ambrosano, Glaucia Maria; Lovadino, Jose Roberto

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the effect of different polymerization modes on temperature rise in human dentin of different thicknesses, and to evaluate the relation between dentin thickness and temperature rise (TR). For this purpose, 60 specimens were assigned into 20 groups (n = 3): five polymerization modes (1-conventional; 2-soft-start; 3-high intensity; 4-ramp cure: progressive and high intensity; 5-high intensity with the tip of the light-curing unit at a distance of 1.3 cm for 10 s and the tip leaning on the sample) at four dentin thicknesses (0, 1, 2, 3 mm). During composite sample polymerization (2 mm), the temperature was measured by a digital laser thermometer (CMSS2000-SL/SKF). The statistical analyses were conducted by ANOVA (p = 0.05) and post-hoc Tukey's test. There were statistical differences of TR among polymerization modes and dentin thicknesses. The temperature rise was dependent on the polymerization mode and the dentin thickness: the thicker the dentin and the lower the polymerization mode energy, the lower the temperature rise

  19. Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

  20. On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

    Science.gov (United States)

    KäRner, O.

    2002-10-01

    Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

  1. Effects of implant drilling parameters for pilot and twist drills on temperature rise in bone analog and alveolar bones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chuan; Hsiao, Chih-Kun; Ciou, Ji-Sih; Tsai, Yi-Jung; Tu, Yuan-Kun

    2016-11-01

    This study concerns the effects of different drilling parameters of pilot drills and twist drills on the temperature rise of alveolar bones during dental implant procedures. The drilling parameters studied here include the feed rate and rotation speed of the drill. The bone temperature distribution was analyzed through experiments and numerical simulations of the drilling process. In this study, a three dimensional (3D) elasto-plastic dynamic finite element model (DFEM) was proposed to investigate the effects of drilling parameters on the bone temperature rise. In addition, the FE model is validated with drilling experiments on artificial human bones and porcine alveolar bones. The results indicate that 3D DFEM can effectively simulate the bone temperature rise during the drilling process. During the drilling process with pilot drills or twist drills, the maximum bone temperature occurred in the region of the cancellous bones close to the cortical bones. The feed rate was one of the important factors affecting the time when the maximum bone temperature occurred. Our results also demonstrate that the elevation of bone temperature was reduced as the feed rate increased and the drill speed decreased, which also effectively reduced the risk region of osteonecrosis. These findings can serve as a reference for dentists in choosing drilling parameters for dental implant surgeries. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Trimmel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land–water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

  3. Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Melcher, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

  4. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  5. Reconciling past changes in Earth's rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk's enigma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Dumberry, Mathieu; Stanley, Sabine

    2015-12-01

    In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth's rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth's rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth's rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth's rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.

  6. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  7. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  8. Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future

  9. The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. The rise of global health diplomacy: An interdisciplinary concept linking health and international relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Global health diplomacy (GHD) is relatively a very new field that has yet to be clearly defined and developed though there are various definitions given by different experts from foreign policy, global health, diplomacy, international relations, governance, and law. With the intensification of globalization and increasing gaps between countries, new and reemerging health threats such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Ebola, and Zika and a gradual rethinking on security concepts framed a new political context. The health problems addressed diplomatically have also become diverse ranging from neglected tropical diseases, infectious diseases, sale of unsafe, counterfeit drugs to brain drain crisis. We see that global health has become more diverse as the actors widened and also the interests appealing not only to the traditional humanitarian ideals associated with health but also to the principles grounded in national and global security. Recently, we are witnessing the increased priority given to the GHD because the issue of health is discussed by various actors outside the WHO to shape the global policy for health determinants. In fact, the area of health has become the part of UN Summit Diplomacy involving the G8, G20, BRICS, and the EU. The recent WHO Pandemic Influenza Framework, UN High Level Framework on Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, and the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control are some of the examples of long-term negotiation processes for agreements that took place.

  11. State strategies of governance in biomedical innovation: aligning conceptual approaches for understanding 'Rising Powers' in the global context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faulkner Alex

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background 'Innovation' has become a policy focus in its own right in many states as they compete to position themselves in the emerging knowledge economies. Innovation in biomedicine is a global enterprise in which 'Rising Power' states figure prominently, and which undoubtedly will re-shape health systems and health economies globally. Scientific and technological innovation processes and policies raise difficult issues in the domains of science/technology, civil society, and the economic and healthcare marketplace. The production of knowledge in these fields is complex, uncertain, inter-disciplinary and inter-institutional, and subject to a continuing political struggle for advantage. As part of this struggle, a wide variety of issues - regulation, intellectual property, ethics, scientific boundaries, healthcare market formation - are raised and policy agendas negotiated. Methods A range of social science disciplines and approaches have conceptualised such innovation processes. Against a background of concepts such as the competition state and the developmental state, and national innovation systems, we give an overview of a range of approaches that have potential for advancing understanding of governance of global life science and biomedical innovation, with special reference to the 'Rising Powers', in order to examine convergences and divergences between them. Conceptual approaches that we focus on include those drawn from political science/political economy, sociology of technology; Innovation Studies and Science & Technology Studies. The paper is part of a project supported by the UK ESRC's Rising Powers programme. Results We show convergences and complementarities between the approaches discussed, and argue that the role of the national state itself has become relatively neglected in much of the relevant theorising. Conclusions We conclude that an approach is required that enables innovation and governance to be seen as 'co

  12. State strategies of governance in biomedical innovation: aligning conceptual approaches for understanding 'Rising Powers' in the global context

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background 'Innovation' has become a policy focus in its own right in many states as they compete to position themselves in the emerging knowledge economies. Innovation in biomedicine is a global enterprise in which 'Rising Power' states figure prominently, and which undoubtedly will re-shape health systems and health economies globally. Scientific and technological innovation processes and policies raise difficult issues in the domains of science/technology, civil society, and the economic and healthcare marketplace. The production of knowledge in these fields is complex, uncertain, inter-disciplinary and inter-institutional, and subject to a continuing political struggle for advantage. As part of this struggle, a wide variety of issues - regulation, intellectual property, ethics, scientific boundaries, healthcare market formation - are raised and policy agendas negotiated. Methods A range of social science disciplines and approaches have conceptualised such innovation processes. Against a background of concepts such as the competition state and the developmental state, and national innovation systems, we give an overview of a range of approaches that have potential for advancing understanding of governance of global life science and biomedical innovation, with special reference to the 'Rising Powers', in order to examine convergences and divergences between them. Conceptual approaches that we focus on include those drawn from political science/political economy, sociology of technology; Innovation Studies and Science & Technology Studies. The paper is part of a project supported by the UK ESRC's Rising Powers programme. Results We show convergences and complementarities between the approaches discussed, and argue that the role of the national state itself has become relatively neglected in much of the relevant theorising. Conclusions We conclude that an approach is required that enables innovation and governance to be seen as 'co-producing' each other in a multi

  13. Food crops face rising temperatures: An overview of responses, adaptive mechanisms, and approaches to improve heat tolerance

    OpenAIRE

    Neeru Kaushal; Kalpna Bhandari; Kadambot H.M. Siddique; Harsh Nayyar

    2016-01-01

    The rising temperatures are resulting in heat stress for various agricultural crops to limit their growth, metabolism, and leading to significant loss of yield potential worldwide. Heat stress adversely affects normal plant growth and development depending on the sensitivity of each crop species. Each crop species has its own range of temperature maxima and minima at different developmental stages beyond which all these processes get inhibited. The reproductive stage is on the whole more sens...

  14. The Effect of Specimen Size on the Results of Concrete Adiabatic Temperature Rise Test with Commercially Available Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byung Jae Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, adiabatic temperature rise tests depending on binder type and adiabatic specimen volume were performed, and the maximum adiabatic temperature rises and the reaction factors for each mix proportion were analyzed and suggested. The results indicated that the early strength low heat blended cement mixture had the lowest maximum adiabatic temperature rise (Q∞ and the ternary blended cement mixture had the lowest reaction factor (r. Also, Q and r varied depending on the adiabatic specimen volume even when the tests were conducted with a calorimeter, which satisfies the recommendations for adiabatic conditions. Test results show a correlation: the measurements from the 50 L specimens were consistently higher than those from the 6 L specimens. However, the Q∞ and r values of the 30 L specimen were similar to those of the 50 L specimen. Based on the above correlation, the adiabatic temperature rise of the 50 L specimen could be predicted using the results of the 6 L and 30 L specimens. Therefore, it is thought that this correlation can be used for on-site concrete quality control and basic research.

  15. The Effect of Specimen Size on the Results of Concrete Adiabatic Temperature Rise Test with Commercially Available Equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Byung Jae; Bang, Jin Wook; Shin, Kyung Joon; Kim, Yun Yong

    2014-12-08

    In this study, adiabatic temperature rise tests depending on binder type and adiabatic specimen volume were performed, and the maximum adiabatic temperature rises and the reaction factors for each mix proportion were analyzed and suggested. The results indicated that the early strength low heat blended cement mixture had the lowest maximum adiabatic temperature rise ( Q ∞ ) and the ternary blended cement mixture had the lowest reaction factor ( r ). Also, Q and r varied depending on the adiabatic specimen volume even when the tests were conducted with a calorimeter, which satisfies the recommendations for adiabatic conditions. Test results show a correlation: the measurements from the 50 L specimens were consistently higher than those from the 6 L specimens. However, the Q ∞ and r values of the 30 L specimen were similar to those of the 50 L specimen. Based on the above correlation, the adiabatic temperature rise of the 50 L specimen could be predicted using the results of the 6 L and 30 L specimens. Therefore, it is thought that this correlation can be used for on-site concrete quality control and basic research.

  16. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  17. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  18. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  19. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  20. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  1. Globalization and the rise of precarious employment: the new frontier for workplace health promotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldbick, Sam; Labonte, Ronald; Mohindra, K S; Ruckert, Arne

    2014-06-01

    Global market integration over the past three decades has led to labour market restructuring in most countries around the world. Employment flexibility has been emphasized as a way for employers to restructure their organizations to remain globally competitive. This flexibility has resulted in the growth of precarious employment, which has been exacerbated by the global financial crisis and resulting recession in 2007/2008, and the ongoing economic uncertainty throughout much of the world. Precarious employment may result in short and long-term health consequences for many workers. This presents a deeper and more structural determinant of health than what health promoters have traditionally considered. It calls for a different understanding of workplace health promotion research and intervention that goes beyond enabling healthier lifestyle choices or advocating safer workplace conditions to ensuring adequate social protection floors that provide people with sufficient resources to lead healthy lives, and for advocacy for taxation justice to finance such protection.

  2. Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Michael D.; Roberts, Harry H.

    2009-07-01

    Over the past few centuries, 25% of the deltaic wetlands associated with the Mississippi Delta have been lost to the ocean. Plans to protect and restore the coast call for diversions of the Mississippi River, and its associated sediment, to sustain and build new land. However, the sediment load of the Mississippi River has been reduced by 50% through dam construction in the Mississippi Basin, which could affect the effectiveness of diversion plans. Here we calculate the amount of sediment stored on the delta plain for the past 12,000 years, and find that mean storage rates necessary to construct the flood plain and delta over this period exceed modern Mississippi River sediment loads. We estimate that, in the absence of sediment input, an additional 10,000-13,500km2 will be submerged by the year 2100 owing to subsidence and sea-level rise. Sustaining existing delta surface area would require 18-24billiontons of sediment, which is significantly more than can be drawn from the Mississippi River in its current state. We conclude that significant drowning is inevitable, even if sediment loads are restored, because sea level is now rising at least three times faster than during delta-plain construction.

  3. Rising to the Challenge: Developing a Survey of Workplace Skills, Civic Engagement, and Global Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouimet, Judith A.; Pike, Gary R.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter describes the ongoing development of a survey of students' workplace skills, civic engagement, and global awareness that colleges and universities can use to document their contributions to the public good. The student growth survey currently under development offers colleges and universities an opportunity to refocus the attention of…

  4. A New Global Coastal Database for Impact and Vulnerability Analysis to Sea-Level Rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vafeidis, A.T.; Nicholls, R.J.; McFadden, L.; Tol, R.S.J.; Hinkel, J.; Spencer, T.; Grashoff, P.S.; Boot, G.; Klein, R.J.T.

    2008-01-01

    A new global coastal database has been developed within the context of the DINAS-COAST project. The database covers the world's coasts, excluding Antarctica, and includes information on more than 80 physical, ecological, and socioeconomic parameters of the coastal zone. The database provides the

  5. Physics responsible for heating efficiency and self-controlled temperature rise of magnetic nanoparticles in magnetic hyperthermia therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaterabadi, Zhila; Nabiyouni, Gholamreza; Soleymani, Meysam

    2018-03-01

    Magnetic nanoparticles as heat-generating nanosources in hyperthermia treatment are still faced with many drawbacks for achieving sufficient clinical potential. In this context, increase in heating ability of magnetic nanoparticles in a biologically safe alternating magnetic field and also approach to a precise control on temperature rise are two challenging subjects so that a significant part of researchers' efforts has been devoted to them. Since a deep understanding of Physics concepts of heat generation by magnetic nanoparticles is essential to develop hyperthermia as a cancer treatment with non-adverse side effects, this review focuses on different mechanisms responsible for heat dissipation in a radio frequency magnetic field. Moreover, particular attention is given to ferrite-based nanoparticles because of their suitability in radio frequency magnetic fields. Also, the key role of Curie temperature in suppressing undesired temperature rise is highlighted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  7. Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)

  8. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  9. High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

  10. China’s Rise and Its Implications for the Global Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitaru Loredana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 1978, the world has been witnessing China’s formidable growth at an average growthyearly rate of about 10%. Even when the world economy was affected by the global economicfinancialcrisis, China’s economy grew 9-10% per year. The objective of this study is to provide acomplex view of the Chinese economic growth and to identify the effects of this growth on theworld economy. To that effect, this paper is structured in two parts. In the first part, we analysedthe evolution of the Chinese economic growth and the drivers of this spectacular growth. In thesecond part, we identified and analysed the implications of this growth for the global economy. Toachieve our objective, we used the method of documentary research.

  11. Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

    2006-03-01

    Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

  12. ESTIMATION OF THE TEMPERATURE RISE OF A MCU ACID STREAM PIPE IN NEAR PROXIMITY TO A SLUDGE STREAM PIPE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fondeur, F; Michael Poirier, M; Samuel Fink, S

    2007-01-01

    Effluent streams from the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) will transfer to the tank farms and to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). These streams will contain entrained solvent. A significant portion of the Strip Effluent (SE) pipeline (i.e., acid stream containing Isopar(reg s ign) L residues) length is within one inch of a sludge stream. Personnel envisioned the sludge stream temperature may reach 100 C during operation. The nearby SE stream may receive heat from the sludge stream and reach temperatures that may lead to flammability issues once the contents of the SE stream discharge into a larger reservoir. To this end, personnel used correlations from the literature to estimate the maximum temperature rise the SE stream may experience if the nearby sludge stream reaches boiling temperature. Several calculation methods were used to determine the temperature rise of the SE stream. One method considered a heat balance equation under steady state that employed correlation functions to estimate heat transfer rate. This method showed the maximum temperature of the acid stream (SE) may exceed 45 C when the nearby sludge stream is 80 C or higher. A second method used an effectiveness calculation used to predict the heat transfer rate in single pass heat exchanger. By envisioning the acid and sludge pipes as a parallel flow pipe-to-pipe heat exchanger, this method provides a conservative estimation of the maximum temperature rise. Assuming the contact area (i.e., the area over which the heat transfer occurs) is the whole pipe area, the results found by this method nearly matched the results found with the previous calculation method. It is recommended that the sludge stream be maintained below 80 C to minimize a flammable vapor hazard from occurring

  13. The global biopharma industry and the rise of Indian drug multinationals: implications for Australian generics policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfgren, Hans

    2007-06-01

    This article provides a synopsis of the new dynamics of the global biopharma industry. The emergence of global generics companies with capabilities approximating those of 'big pharma' has accelerated the blurring of boundaries between the innovator and generics sectors. Biotechnology-based products form a large and growing segment of prescription drug markets and regulatory pathways for biogenerics are imminent. Indian biopharma multinationals with large-scale efficient manufacturing plants and growing R&D capabilities are now major suppliers of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and generic drugs across both developed and developing countries. In response to generic competition, innovator companies employ a range of life cycle management techniques, including the launch of 'authorised generics'. The generics segment in Australia will see high growth rates in coming years but the prospect for local manufacturing is bleak. The availability of cheap generics in international markets has put pressure on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) pricing arrangements, and a new policy direction was announced in November 2006. Lower generics prices will have a negative impact on some incumbent suppliers but industrial renewal policies for the medicines industry in Australia are better focused on higher value R&D activities and niche manufacturing of sophisticated products.

  14. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  15. Neo-Mercantilist Policy and China’s Rise as a Global Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Lai Tony Yu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that China is adopting Neo-mercantilist policies in its national development and global expansion. China’s Neo-mercantilist strategies include promoting nationalism and patriotism, stockpiling gold and foreign reserves, striving for favorable balance of payment via exchange rate manipulation, tariff, export subsidies and other trade protections. The Chinese government also controls population growth for national development and social control, initiates “Belt and Road” project and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to counter American and Western influences, and deploys strategic expansion in Africa, South Asia and Latin American countries. China’s economic success through Neo-mercantilist strategies may provide an incentive for other Asian developing nations such as the Philippines to follow.

  16. The Global Rise of Zero Liquid Discharge for Wastewater Management: Drivers, Technologies, and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Tiezheng; Elimelech, Menachem

    2016-07-05

    Zero liquid discharge (ZLD)-a wastewater management strategy that eliminates liquid waste and maximizes water usage efficiency - has attracted renewed interest worldwide in recent years. Although implementation of ZLD reduces water pollution and augments water supply, the technology is constrained by high cost and intensive energy consumption. In this critical review, we discuss the drivers, incentives, technologies, and environmental impacts of ZLD. Within this framework, the global applications of ZLD in the United States and emerging economies such as China and India are examined. We highlight the evolution of ZLD from thermal- to membrane-based processes, and analyze the advantages and limitations of existing and emerging ZLD technologies. The potential environmental impacts of ZLD, notably greenhouse gas emission and generation of solid waste, are discussed and the prospects of ZLD technologies and research needs are highlighted.

  17. Bollywood Dreams? The Rise of the Asian Mela as a Global Cultural Phenomenon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Smith

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article will examine some of the complexities inherent in the development of Asian Mela festivals from small-scale community-based events in India, to national celebrations of Diasporic culture in Western countries. Like Caribbean Carnivals, Melas are becoming more popular as a global cultural tourism phenomenon and are increasingly being promoted to white and tourist audiences. This similarly engenders fears of cultural dilution, distortion, and ‘Othering’. The programming of Melas is apparently keeping pace with the exporting, re-packaging and hybridisation of other forms of Asian culture, such as cuisine, music, fashion, and cinema. But does this symbolise a Bollywood dream or just another post-colonial appropriation of indigenous or Disaporic cultures? Cultural protectionism is certainly a contentious issue within Diasporic communities, where inter-generational differences of opinion can lead to conflict and confusion. Identity construction is complex and worthy of further examination in the context of Melas, which traditionally served to celebrate ethnic community and folk cultures and identities, but are increasingly becoming a showcase for global and hybridised cultural forms. The article will examine these issues, as well as providing an analysis of the factors and mechanisms that are driving the development of Melas forward. This will include the role and vision of artistic directors of Melas, the contribution of ethnic communities to cultural continuity, and issues relating to audience and tourism development. A case study of the Edinburgh Mela will be presented, which exemplifies a number of the aforementioned issues, focusing in particular on national and Diasporic identity construction, and the tensions between popular and traditional cultural forms.

  18. Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

  19. Influence of temperature rise distribution in second harmonic generation crystal on intensity distributions of output second harmonic wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wei; Feng Guoying; Li Gang; Huang Yu; Zhang Qiuhui

    2009-01-01

    Second-harmonic generation (SHG) of high-intensity laser with an SHG crystal for type I angle phase matching has been studied by the use of a split-step algorithm based on the fast Fourier transform and a fourth-order Runge-Kutta (R-K) integrator. The transverse walk-off effect, diffraction, the second-order and the third-order nonlinear effects have been taken into consideration. Influences of a temperature rise distribution of the SHG crystal on the refractive indices of ordinary wave and extraordinary wave have been discussed. The rules of phase mismatching quantity, intensity distribution of output beam and frequency conversion efficiency varying with the temperature rise distribution of the SHG crystal have been analyzed quantitatively. The calculated results indicate that in a high power frequency conversion system, the temperature rise distribution of SHG crystal would result in the phase mismatching of fundamental and harmonic waves, leading to the variation of intensity distribution of the output beam and the decrease of the conversion efficiency. (authors)

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  1. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  3. A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J. T.

    2013-12-01

    This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

  4. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  5. The Steel and Shipbuilding Industries of South Korea: Rising East Asia and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-ho Shin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we focus on the roles of the steel and shipbuilding industries as generative sectors in Korea’s rapid economic ascent. We argue that a world-systems analysis focusing on these generative sectors provides a more complete understanding of Korea’s rapid economic ascent than do other theoretical models. We outline the similarities between this case and those analyzed by Bunker and Ciccantell (2005, 2007 both in terms of the central role of generative sectors in raw materials and transport industries and how the creation and growth of these two industrial sectors shaped institutional patterns and the broader economic ascent of South Korea and East Asia. Even though South Korea has not and may never become a challenger for global hegemony, its rapid ascent has helped reshape East Asia and the capitalist world-economy. We use the model of generative sectors to analyze the critical industries that underlay and shaped South Korea’s ascent from a low wage, light industry base to a world leader in electronics, automobiles, and other advanced industries.

  6. Inside the greenhouse debate. Energy issues set to rise on global warming agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2000-01-01

    At The Hague in November 2000, pivotal talks on climate change policies and actions - notably ways to cut emissions of greenhouse gases - were suspended after two weeks of intensive debate. Countries now are looking to resume negotiations by June 2001, possibly in Bonn, Germany. Five countries interested in nuclear power under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for reducing greenhouse gas emissions presented national case studies at COP-6. The presentations were made at a ''sidebar'' event introduced by Mr. Hans-Holger Rogner, who heads the IAEA's Planning and Economic Studies Section, Department of Nuclear Energy. Case studies were presented by Mr. R.B. Grover, India; Mr. Chaeyung Lim, Republic of Korea; Mr. Liu Deshun, China; Mr. Le Doan Phac, Viet Nam; and Mr. Muhammad Latif, Pakistan. India's presentation outlined plans to expand electricity production through 2012, including an increase in nuclear capacity. Mr. Grover said that some nuclear power projects are dependent upon receiving financial assistance under the CDM; the dependence is linked to the plant's location relative to India's major coal mines. The Republic of Korea presentation addressed the cost of carbon reduction, noting that reductions using nuclear power would cost about one-tenth of the cost using gas-fired plants in the country. Nuclear power also would contribute to the country's energy security. China's presentation reviewed the country's plans to boost nuclear power capacity over the next 20 years in the face of rising electricity demand, with new plants targeted for coastal regions that are more economically developed. Achieving nuclear expansion plans would result in the annual avoidance of about 63 million tonnes carbon through reduced carbon-dioxide emissions. Nearly 75% of the country's electricity production is now coal-fired, which places a heavy toll on both the environment and transportation requirements. Financial support is needed to more fully develop the nuclear option

  7. Pulp chamber temperature rise during curing of resin-based composites with different light-curing units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durey, Kathryn; Santini, Ario; Miletic, Vesna

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to measure the intrapulpal temperature rise occurring during polymerisation of different shades of resin-based composites (RBCs), and two light-emitting diode (LED) units. Seventy non-carious permanent molars, that had been extracted for orthodontic purposes and stored in 2% thymol for not more than four months, were selected. Patient age range was 11-18 years. Standard cavity preparation with standardised remaining dentine thickness and placement of thermocouples (TCs) was prepared using a novel split-tooth technique. Cavities were filled with one of two shades of RBC (A2 and C4, Filtek Z250, 3M ESPE, Seefeld, Germany), and cured with two LED high-intensity units (Elipar Freelight2, 3M ESPE, Seefeld, Germany; Bluephase, Ivoclar Vivadent, Schaan, Liechtenstein) and a conventional halogen light-curing unit (LCU) (Prismetics Lite 2, Dentsply, Weybridge, Surrey, UK) as a control. Pulp temperature rises during bonding [A2 results: H;2.67/0.48:E;5.24/1.32;B;5.99/1.61] were always greater than during RBC curing [A2 results: 2.44/0.63;E3.34/0.70;B3.38/0.60], and these were significant for both LED lights but not for the halogen control, irrespective of shade (Mann-Whitney test: 95% confidence limits). Temperature rises were at times in excess of the values normally quoted as causing irreversible pulp damage. Pulp temperature rises during bonding were higher with the LED lights than with the halogen control. There was no significant difference in temperature rise between the two LED lights when bonding but there was a significant difference between the two LED lights and the halogen control LCUs (Kruskal-Wallis Test: 95% confidence limits). The results support the view that there is a potential risk for heat-induced pulpal injury when light-curing RBCs. The risk is greater during bonding and with high energy, as compared to low-energy output systems. As the extent of tolerable thermal trauma by the pulp tissues is unknown, care and

  8. Conceptualizing the Cultural and Political Facets of “Chinese Nationalism” in an Era of China’s Global Rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bislev, Ane Katrine; Li, Xing

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Chinese nationalism and national identity is of primary importance in comprehending the increasingly assertive role that a rising China plays on the global political scene. But “Chinese nationalism” is a very difficult concept to deal with due to differences in the Western and Chinese...... society is also recognized by the Chinese state, that deliberately fosters patriotic sentiment among the young generation through the Patriotic Education Campaign. Material from this campaign is used to provide an important indication of the patriotic content of current Chinese state nationalism....... understandings of the term. This article attempts to bridge the gap by analyzing both Chinese and Western conceptualizations of the term and discussing the difference between patriotism and nationalism and their interchange in China today. The importance of nationalism/patriotism in shaping modern Chinese...

  9. Methane rising from the Deep: Hydrates, Bubbles, Oil Spills, and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leifer, I.; Rehder, G. J.; Solomon, E. A.; Kastner, M.; Asper, V. L.; Joye, S. B.

    2011-12-01

    Elevated methane concentrations in near-surface waters and the atmosphere have been reported for seepage from depths of nearly 1 km at the Gulf of Mexico hydrate observatory (MC118), suggesting that for some methane sources, deepsea methane is not trapped and can contribute to atmospheric greenhouse gas budgets. Ebullition is key with important sensitivity to the formation of hydrate skins and oil coatings, high-pressure solubility, bubble size and bubble plume processes. Bubble ROV tracking studies showed survival to near thermocline depths. Studies with a numerical bubble propagation model demonstrated that consideration of structure I hydrate skins transported most methane only to mid-water column depths. Instead, consideration of structure II hydrates, which are stable to far shallower depths and appropriate for natural gas mixtures, allows bubbles to survive to far shallower depths. Moreover, model predictions of vertical methane and alkane profiles and bubble size evolution were in better agreement with observations after consideration of structure II hydrate properties as well as an improved implementation of plume properties, such as currents. These results demonstrate the importance of correctly incorporating bubble hydrate processes in efforts to predict the impact of deepsea seepage as well as to understand the fate of bubble-transported oil and methane from deepsea pipeline leaks and well blowouts. Application to the DWH spill demonstrated the importance of deepsea processes to the fate of spilled subsurface oil. Because several of these parameters vary temporally (bubble flux, currents, temperature), sensitivity studies indicate the importance of real-time monitoring data.

  10. A high-temperature hydrothermal deposit on the East Pacific Rise near 70N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulegue, J.; Stouff, P.; Perseil, E.A.; Bernat, M.; Dupre, B.; Francheteau, J.

    1984-01-01

    A SEABEAM survey of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) led to the selection of several sites having structural characteristics favorable for hydrothermal activity. Dredging of such an area located at 7 0 N on the EPR resulted in the recovery of sulfides, oxides and fresh basalt. Chemical analyses and isotopic compositions showed that the recovered pyrites were probably precipitated directly from hot vent hydrothermal waters. Chemical analyses and isotopic composition of manganese-iron oxides indicated that they too were of hydrothermal origin. 210 Pb/Pb measurements yielded ages of 90 +- 10 years for the deposits. This site may still be undergoing hydrothermal activity. (orig.)

  11. Ciguatera incidence in the US Virgin Islands has not increased over a 30-year time period despite rising seawater temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radke, Elizabeth G; Grattan, Lynn M; Cook, Robert L; Smith, Tyler B; Anderson, Donald M; Morris, J Glenn

    2013-05-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning is the most common marine food poisoning worldwide. It has been hypothesized that increasing seawater temperature will result in increasing ciguatera incidence. In St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, we performed an island-wide telephone survey (N = 807) and a medical record review of diagnosed ciguatera cases at the emergency department of the sole hospital and compared these data with comparable data sources collected in 1980. Annual incidence from both recent data sources remained high (12 per 1,000 among adults in the telephone survey). However, the combined data sources suggest that incidence has declined by 20% or more or remained stable over 30 years, whereas seawater temperatures were increasing. Illness was associated with lower education levels, higher levels of fish consumption, and having previous episodes of ciguatera; population shifts from 1980 to 2010 in these factors could explain an incidence decline of approximately 3 per 1,000, obscuring effects from rising seawater temperature.

  12. Potential decline in geothermal energy generation due to rising temperatures under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angel, E.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Ruiz-Carrascal, D.

    2016-12-01

    Geothermal energy production depends on the difference between air temperature and the geothermal fluid temperature. The latter remains approximately constant over time, so the power generation varies according to local atmospheric conditions. Projected changes in near-surface air temperatures in the upper levels of the tropical belt are likely to exceed the projected temperature anomalies across many other latitudes, which implies that geothermal plants located in these regions may be affected, reducing their energy output. This study focuses on a hypothetical geothermal power plant, located in the headwaters of the Claro River watershed, a key high-altitude basin in Los Nevados Natural Park, on the El Ruiz-Tolima volcanic massif, in the Colombian Central Andes, a region with a known geothermal potential. Four different Atmospheric General Circulation Models where used to project temperature anomalies for the 2040-2069 prospective period. Their simulation outputs were merged in a differentially-weighted multi-model ensemble, whose weighting factors were defined according to the capability of individual models to reproduce ground truth data from a set of digital data-loggers installed in the basin since 2008 and from weather stations gathering climatic variables since the early 50s. Projected anomalies were computed for each of the Representative Concentration Pathways defined by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in the studied region. These climate change projections indicate that air temperatures will likely reach positive anomalies in the range +1.27 ºC to +3.47 ºC, with a mean value of +2.18 ºC. Under these conditions, the annual energy output declines roughly 1% per each degree of increase in near-surface temperature. These results must be taken into account in geothermal project evaluations in the region.

  13. Effect of temperature rise and ocean acidification on growth of calcifying tubeworm shells (Spirorbis spirorbis): an in situ benthocosm approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Sha; Taubner, Isabelle; Böhm, Florian; Winde, Vera; Böttcher, Michael E.

    2018-03-01

    The calcareous tubeworm Spirorbis spirorbis is a widespread serpulid species in the Baltic Sea, where it commonly grows as an epibiont on brown macroalgae (genus Fucus). It lives within a Mg-calcite shell and could be affected by ocean acidification and temperature rise induced by the predicted future atmospheric CO2 increase. However, Spirorbis tubes grow in a chemically modified boundary layer around the algae, which may mitigate acidification. In order to investigate how increasing temperature and rising pCO2 may influence S. spirorbis shell growth we carried out four seasonal experiments in the Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms at elevated pCO2 and temperature conditions. Compared to laboratory batch culture experiments the benthocosm approach provides a better representation of natural conditions for physical and biological ecosystem parameters, including seasonal variations. We find that growth rates of S. spirorbis are significantly controlled by ontogenetic and seasonal effects. The length of the newly grown tube is inversely related to the initial diameter of the shell. Our study showed no significant difference of the growth rates between ambient atmospheric and elevated (1100 ppm) pCO2 conditions. No influence of daily average CaCO3 saturation state on the growth rates of S. spirorbis was observed. We found, however, net growth of the shells even in temporarily undersaturated bulk solutions, under conditions that concurrently favoured selective shell surface dissolution. The results suggest an overall resistance of S. spirorbis growth to acidification levels predicted for the year 2100 in the Baltic Sea. In contrast, S. spirorbis did not survive at mean seasonal temperatures exceeding 24 °C during the summer experiments. In the autumn experiments at ambient pCO2, the growth rates of juvenile S. spirorbis were higher under elevated temperature conditions. The results reveal that S. spirorbis may prefer moderately warmer conditions during their early life stages

  14. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

  15. Comparison of temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units: An in-vitro study

    OpenAIRE

    Rajesh Ebenezar A; Anilkumar R; Indira R; Ramachandran S; Srinivasan M

    2010-01-01

    Aims/Objectives : This in vitro study was designed to measure and compare the temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units. Materials and Methods : The study was done in two settings-in-vitro and in-vivo simulation. In in-vitro setting, 3mm and 6mm acrylic spacers with 4mm tip diameter thermocouple was used and six groups were formed according to the light curing source- 3 Quartz-Tungsten-Halogen (QTH) units and 3 Light-Emitting-Diode (LED) units. For the LED units...

  16. Comparison of temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units: An in-vitro study

    OpenAIRE

    Rajesh Ebenezar, A V; Anilkumar, R; Indira, R; Ramachandran, S; Srinivasan, M R

    2010-01-01

    Aims/Objectives: This in vitro study was designed to measure and compare the temperature rise in the pulp chamber with different light curing units. Materials and Methods: The study was done in two settings-in-vitro and in-vivo simulation. In in-vitro setting, 3mm and 6mm acrylic spacers with 4mm tip diameter thermocouple was used and six groups were formed according to the light curing source- 3 Quartz-Tungsten-Halogen (QTH) units and 3 Light-Emitting-Diode (LED) units. For the LED units, th...

  17. Self-sensing of temperature rises on light emitting diode based optrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehkhoda, Fahimeh; Soltan, Ahmed; Ponon, Nikhil; Jackson, Andrew; O'Neill, Anthony; Degenaar, Patrick

    2018-04-01

    Objective. This work presents a method to determine the surface temperature of microphotonic medical implants like LEDs. Our inventive step is to use the photonic emitter (LED) employed in an implantable device as its own sensor and develop readout circuitry to accurately determine the surface temperature of the device. Approach. There are two primary classes of applications where microphotonics could be used in implantable devices; opto-electrophysiology and fluorescence sensing. In such scenarios, intense light needs to be delivered to the target. As blue wavelengths are scattered strongly in tissue, such delivery needs to be either via optic fibres, two-photon approaches or through local emitters. In the latter case, as light emitters generate heat, there is a potential for probe surfaces to exceed the 2 °C regulatory. However, currently, there are no convenient mechanisms to monitor this in situ. Main results. We present the electronic control circuit and calibration method to monitor the surface temperature change of implantable optrode. The efficacy is demonstrated in air, saline, and brain. Significance. This paper, therefore, presents a method to utilize the light emitting diode as its own temperature sensor.

  18. A controlled intervention study concerning the effect of intended temperature rise on house dust mite load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidenius, Kirsten E; Hallas, Thorkil E; Poulsen, Lars K.

    2002-01-01

    In epidemiological studies, increased indoor temperature--producing a lower relative humidity--is associated with low house dust mite (HDM) load. Twenty-eight dwellings were allocated for either intervention (12/15 completed) or control (11/13 completed). In the intervention group, participants w...

  19. Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lori D. Bothwell; Paul C. Selmants; Christian P. Giardina; Creighton M. Litton

    2014-01-01

    Decomposing litter in forest ecosystems supplies nutrients to plants, carbon to heterotrophic soil microorganisms and is a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Despite its essential role in carbon and nutrient cycling, the temperature sensitivityof leaf litter decay in tropical forest ecosystems remains poorly resolved, especially in tropical...

  20. Global versus local mechanisms of temperature sensing in ion channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigoni, Cristina; Minor, Daniel L

    2018-05-01

    Ion channels turn diverse types of inputs, ranging from neurotransmitters to physical forces, into electrical signals. Channel responses to ligands generally rely on binding to discrete sensor domains that are coupled to the portion of the channel responsible for ion permeation. By contrast, sensing physical cues such as voltage, pressure, and temperature arises from more varied mechanisms. Voltage is commonly sensed by a local, domain-based strategy, whereas the predominant paradigm for pressure sensing employs a global response in channel structure to membrane tension changes. Temperature sensing has been the most challenging response to understand and whether discrete sensor domains exist for pressure and temperature has been the subject of much investigation and debate. Recent exciting advances have uncovered discrete sensor modules for pressure and temperature in force-sensitive and thermal-sensitive ion channels, respectively. In particular, characterization of bacterial voltage-gated sodium channel (BacNa V ) thermal responses has identified a coiled-coil thermosensor that controls channel function through a temperature-dependent unfolding event. This coiled-coil thermosensor blueprint recurs in other temperature sensitive ion channels and thermosensitive proteins. Together with the identification of ion channel pressure sensing domains, these examples demonstrate that "local" domain-based solutions for sensing force and temperature exist and highlight the diversity of both global and local strategies that channels use to sense physical inputs. The modular nature of these newly discovered physical signal sensors provides opportunities to engineer novel pressure-sensitive and thermosensitive proteins and raises new questions about how such modular sensors may have evolved and empowered ion channel pores with new sensibilities.

  1. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  2. Current sharing effect on the current instability and allowable temperature rise of composite high-TC superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanovskii, V.R.; Watanabe, K.; Awaji, S.; Nishijima, G.; Takahashi, Ken-ichiro

    2004-01-01

    To understand the basic mechanisms of the thermal runaway phenomenon, the limiting margin of the current instability, which may spontaneously occur in composite high-T C superconductors like multifilament Bi-based wire or tape, is derived under DC magnetic field. The current sharing and allowable temperature rise effects were considered. A static zero-dimensional model was utilized to describe the basic formulae dealing with the peculiarities of the non-isothermal change of superconducting composite voltage-current characteristic. The boundary of allowable stable values of the temperature, electric field and current are derived analytically. It was shown that permissible values of the current and electric field might be higher than those determined by use of the standard critical current criterion. In consequence of this feature, the noticeable allowable temperature rise of the composite superconductor before its transition to the normal state may be seen. The criterion for complete thermal stability condition is written describing the state when temperature of the composite equals critical temperature of a superconductor and the transport current flows stably only in matrix. The performed analysis also proves the existence of value of the volume fraction of a superconductor in composite at which its current-carrying capacity has minimum. These peculiarities are due to the stable current redistribution between superconductor and stabilizing matrix. Therefore, the current sharing not only leads to the matrix/superconductor ratio effect on the stable operating characteristics of the composite high-T C superconductors but also becomes important in the adequate description of quench process in the high-T C superconducting magnets

  3. Effects of elevated temperatures and rising sea level on Arctic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Peter W.

    1990-01-01

    Ice is a major agent on the inner shelf, gouging the bottom, increasing hydraulic scour, transporting sediment, and influencing river flood patterns. Rapid coastal retreat is common and low barrier islands and beaches are constantly changing due to the influence of permafrost, ice-push, waves, and currents. Coastal processes are presently a balance between the influence of ice and the action of waves and currents. Quantitative values for processes are poorly known, however our qualitative understanding is nearly complete. Climatic warming and rising sea levels would decrease the temporal and aerial extent of coastal ice thereby expanding the role of waves and currents. As a result, shoreline retreat rates would increase, producing a transgressive erosional surface on the low coastal plain. With increased wave activity, beaches and barrier islands presently nourished by ice push processes would decay and disappear. Increased sediment supply from a deeply thawed, active layer would release more sediments to rivers and coasts. Additional research should be focused on permafrost and sea ice processes active during freeze up and breakup; the two seasons of most vigorous activity and change.

  4. Palaeotethys seawater temperature rise and an intensified hydrological cycle following the end-Permian mass extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schobben, Martin; Joachimski, Michael M.; Korn, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    are presented together with new data from Wuchiapingian to Griesbachian sections in Iran. δ18O data from P-Tr sections in Iran document tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) of 27-33°C during the Changhsingian with a negative shift in δ18O starting at the extinction horizon, translating into a warming of SSTs...... and associated processes, vertical water column stratification, eutrophication and subsequent local anoxia may all have facilitated an extinction event....

  5. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

    2010-01-01

    temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.

  6. Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Karen C.; Jastram, John D.

    2015-01-01

    Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

  7. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  8. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  9. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  10. Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

    1997-01-01

    An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

  11. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  12. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

    2015-04-17

    In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

  13. Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, J.M.; White, N.J.; Church, J.A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Box, J.E.; Van den Broeke, M.R.; Cogley, J.G.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Huybrechts, P.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Leclercq, P.W.; Marzeion, B.; Oerlemans, J.; Tamisiea, M.E.; Wada, Y.; Wake, L.M.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

  14. Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Henry P; Goodstein, Eban; Euskirchen, Eugénie

    2012-02-01

    Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.

  15. Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Keith, Sally A.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Edwards, Alasdair J.; Guest, James R.; Bauman, Andrew G.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Heron, Scott F.; Berumen, Michael L.; Bouwmeester, Jessica; Piromvaragorn, Srisakul; Rahbek, Carsten; Baird, Andrew H.

    2016-01-01

    Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R2 = 0.73, peak: R2 = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

  16. Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Keith, Sally A.

    2016-05-11

    Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R2 = 0.73, peak: R2 = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

  17. Influence of nanoscale temperature rises on photoacoustic generation: Discrimination between optical absorbers based on thermal nonlinearity at high frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simandoux, Olivier; Prost, Amaury; Gateau, Jérôme; Bossy, Emmanuel

    2015-03-01

    In this work, we experimentally investigate thermal-based nonlinear photoacoustic generation as a mean to discriminate between different types of absorbing particles. The photoacoustic generation from solutions of dye molecules and gold nanospheres (same optical densities) was detected using a high frequency ultrasound transducer (20 MHz). Photoacoustic emission was observed with gold nanospheres at low fluence for an equilibrium temperature around 4 °C, where the linear photoacoustic effect in water vanishes, highlighting the nonlinear emission from the solution of nanospheres. The photoacoustic amplitude was also studied as a function of the equilibrium temperature from 2 °C to 20 °C. While the photoacoustic amplitude from the dye molecules vanished around 4 °C, the photoacoustic amplitude from the gold nanospheres remained significant over the whole temperature range. Our preliminary results suggest that in the context of high frequency photoacoustic imaging, nanoparticles may be discriminated from molecular absorbers based on nanoscale temperature rises.

  18. Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

    2016-08-01

    The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

  19. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  20. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  1. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  3. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C

  4. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms

  5. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  6. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  7. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  8. Effect of irradiation type (LED or QTH) on photo-activated composite shrinkage strain kinetics, temperature rise, and hardness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Norbert; Hugo, Burkard; Klaiber, Bernd

    2002-12-01

    This study compares commercially available light-emitting diode (LED) lights with a quartz tungsten halogen (QTH) unit for photo-activating resin-based composites (RBC). Shrinkage strain kinetics and temperature within the RBC were measured simultaneously using the 'deflecting disc technique' and a thermocouple. Surface hardness (Knoop) at the bottom of 1.5-mm thick RBC specimens was measured 24 h after irradiation to indicate degree of cure. Irradiation was performed for 40 s using either the continuous or the ramp-curing mode of a QTH and a LED light (800 mW cm(-2) and 320 mW cm(-2), respectively) or the continuous mode of a lower intensity LED light (160 mW cm(-2)). For Herculite XRV and Filtek Z250 (both containing only camphoroquinone as a photo-initiator) the QTH and the stronger LED light produced similar hardness, while in the case of Definite (containing an additional photo-activator absorbing at lower wavelength) lower hardness was observed after LED irradiation. The temperature rise during polymerization and heating from radiation were lower with LED compared to QTH curing. The fastest increase of polymerization contraction was observed after QTH continuous irradiation, followed by the stronger and the weaker LED light in the continuous mode. Ramp curing decreased contraction speed even more. Shrinkage strain after 60 min was greater following QTH irradiation compared with both LED units (Herculite, Definite) or with the weaker LED light (Z250).

  9. The Effect in Vitro of Ionizing Irradiation and Small Rises in Temperature on the Uptake and Release of Labelled Lipids by the Human Erythrocyte Membrane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Heinz Johs. Max; Karle, H.; Stender, S.

    1978-01-01

    1. The effect of X-irradiation (50 000 rad) and an increase in temperature from 37 to 42° C on the synthesis, uptake and release of labelled lipids by erythrocytes was studied in plasma incubations in vitro. 2. Both irradiation and a rise in temperature resulted in an enhanced synthesis of [32P]phosphatidic...

  10. Food crops face rising temperatures: An overview of responses, adaptive mechanisms, and approaches to improve heat tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeru Kaushal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The rising temperatures are resulting in heat stress for various agricultural crops to limit their growth, metabolism, and leading to significant loss of yield potential worldwide. Heat stress adversely affects normal plant growth and development depending on the sensitivity of each crop species. Each crop species has its own range of temperature maxima and minima at different developmental stages beyond which all these processes get inhibited. The reproductive stage is on the whole more sensitive to heat stress, resulting in impaired fertilization to cause abortion of flowers. During seed filling, heat stress retards seed growth by affecting all the biochemical events to reduce seed size. Unfavorable temperature may significantly affect photosynthesis, respiration, water balance, and membrane stability of leaves. To combat heat stress, plants acquire various defense mechanisms for their survival such as maintaining membrane stability, and scavenging reactive oxygen species by generating antioxidants and stress proteins. Thermo-tolerance can be improved by the accumulation of various compounds of low molecular mass known as thermo-protectants as well as phyto-hormones. Exogenous application of these molecules has benefited plants growing under heat stress. Alternatively, transgenic plants over-expressing the enzymes catalyzing the synthesis of these molecules may be raised to increase their endogenous levels to improve heat tolerance. In recent times, various transgenics have been developed with improved thermo-tolerance having potential benefits for inducing heat tolerance in food crops. Updated information about of the effects of heat stress on various food crops and their responses as well as adaptive mechanisms is reviewed here.

  11. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2018-04-01

    Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

  12. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  13. Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.R.

    2008-08-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  14. Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

    2013-01-01

    The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

  15. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  16. The effect of gaze angle on the evaluations of SAR and temperature rise in human eye under plane-wave exposures from 0.9 to 10 GHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diao, Yinliang; Leung, Sai-Wing; Sun, Weinong; Siu, Yun-Ming; Kong, Richard; Hung Chan, Kwok

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates the effect of gaze angle on the specific absorption rate (SAR) and temperature rise in human eye under electromagnetic exposures from 0.9 to 10 GHz. Eye models in different gaze angles are developed based on bio-metric data. The spatial-average SARs in eyes are investigated using the finite-difference time-domain method, and the corresponding maximum temperature rises in lens are calculated by the finite-difference method. It is found that the changes in the gaze angle produce a maximum variation of 35, 12 and 20 % in the eye-averaged SAR, peak 10 g average SAR and temperature rise, respectively. Results also reveal that the eye-averaged SAR is more sensitive to the changes in the gaze angle than peak 10 g average SAR, especially at higher frequencies. (authors)

  17. One crop breeding cycle from starvation? How engineering crop photosynthesis for rising CO2 and temperature could be one important route to alleviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kromdijk, Johannes; Long, Stephen P

    2016-03-16

    Global climate change is likely to severely impact human food production. This comes at a time when predicted demand for primary foodstuffs by a growing human population and changing global diets is already outpacing a stagnating annual rate of increase in crop productivity. Additionally, the time required by crop breeding and bioengineering to release improved varieties to farmers is substantial, meaning that any crop improvements needed to mitigate food shortages in the 2040s would need to start now. In this perspective, the rationale for improvements in photosynthetic efficiency as a breeding objective for higher yields is outlined. Subsequently, using simple simulation models it is shown how predicted changes in temperature and atmospheric [CO2] affect leaf photosynthetic rates. The chloroplast accounts for the majority of leaf nitrogen in crops. Within the chloroplast about 25% of nitrogen is invested in the carboxylase, Rubisco, which catalyses the first step of CO2 assimilation. Most of the remaining nitrogen is invested in the apparatus to drive carbohydrate synthesis and regenerate ribulose-1:5-bisphosphate (RuBP), the CO2-acceptor molecule at Rubisco. At preindustrial [CO2], investment in these two aspects may have been balanced resulting in co-limitation. At today's [CO2], there appears to be over-investment in Rubisco, and despite the counter-active effects of rising temperature and [CO2], this imbalance is predicted to worsen with global climate change. By breeding or engineering restored optimality under future conditions increased productivity could be achieved in both tropical and temperate environments without additional nitrogen fertilizer. Given the magnitude of the potential shortfall, better storage conditions, improved crop management and better crop varieties will all be needed. With the short time-scale at which food demand is expected to outpace supplies, all available technologies to improve crop varieties, from classical crop breeding to

  18. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  19. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  20. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  1. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  2. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  3. New Kids on the Block: the Rise of the BRIC and the Reconfiguration of Global Economic Ties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Müller

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This contribution examines the rise of the BRICs (Brazil-Russia-India-China through the lens of central socio-economic indicators, including the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators and the World Values Survey. It charts the shift in economic weight and emerging reconfiguration of economic ties as evidenced in foreign direct investment (FDI and the emergence of transnational corporations (TNCs and considers the resulting challenges for intercultural contact at different scale levels through two brief case studies.

  4. The effect of temperature rise on microstructural properties of cement-based materials : Correlation of experimental data and a simulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susanto, A.; Koleva, D.A.; Van Breugel, K.

    2015-01-01

    This work reports on the influence of stray current flow on temperature rise in hardening cement-based materials and consequently altered cement hydration. To simulate stray current, different levels of electrical current were applied to cement paste and mortar specimens immediately after casting.

  5. Internally generated natural variability of global-mean temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative frequency-domain and time-domain estimates are made of an important aspect of natural variability of global-mean temperatures, namely, passive internal variability resulting from the modulation of atmospheric variability by the ocean. The results are derived using an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance climate model. In the frequency domain, analytical spectral results show a transition from a high-frequency region in which the response is determined by the mixed-layer heat capacity and is independent of the climate sensitivity (time scales less than around 10 years), to a low-frequency region in which the response depends only on the climate sensitivity. In the former region the spectral power is proportional to f -2 , where f is the frequency, while in the latter the power is independent of frequency. The range of validity of these results depends on the components of the climate system that are included in the model. In this case these restrict the low-frequency results to time scales less than about 1,000 years. A qualitative extrapolation is presented in an attempt to explain the observed low-frequency power spectra from deep-sea-core δ 18 O time series. The spectral results are also used to estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean as a function of frequency. At low frequencies, this can range up to 50 times greater than the heat capacity of the mixed layer. Results in the time domain are obtained by solving the model equations numerically

  6. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  7. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  8. Assessment of Temperature Rise and Time of Alveolar Ridge Splitting by Means of Er:YAG Laser, Piezosurgery, and Surgical Saw: An Ex Vivo Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matys, Jacek; Flieger, Rafał; Dominiak, Marzena

    2016-01-01

    The most common adverse effect after bone cutting is a thermal damage. The aim of our study was to evaluate the bone temperature rise during an alveolar ridge splitting, rating the time needed to perform this procedure and the time to raise the temperature of a bone by 10°C, as well as to evaluate the bone carbonization occurrence. The research included 60 mandibles ( n = 60) of adult pigs, divided into 4 groups ( n = 15). Two vertical and one horizontal cut have been done in an alveolar ridge using Er:YAG laser with set power of 200 mJ (G1), 400 mJ (G2), piezosurgery unit (G3), and a saw (G4). The temperature was measured by K-type thermocouple. The highest temperature gradient was noted for piezosurgery on the buccal and lingual side of mandible. The temperature rises on the bone surface along with the increase of laser power. The lower time needed to perform ridge splitting was measured for a saw, piezosurgery, and Er:YAG laser with power of 400 mJ and 200 mJ, respectively. The temperature rise measured on the bone over 10°C and bone carbonization occurrence was not reported in all study groups. Piezosurgery, Er:YAG laser (200 mJ and 400 mJ), and surgical saw are useful and safe tools in ridge splitting surgery.

  9. Assessment of Temperature Rise and Time of Alveolar Ridge Splitting by Means of Er:YAG Laser, Piezosurgery, and Surgical Saw: An Ex Vivo Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Matys

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The most common adverse effect after bone cutting is a thermal damage. The aim of our study was to evaluate the bone temperature rise during an alveolar ridge splitting, rating the time needed to perform this procedure and the time to raise the temperature of a bone by 10°C, as well as to evaluate the bone carbonization occurrence. The research included 60 mandibles (n=60 of adult pigs, divided into 4 groups (n=15. Two vertical and one horizontal cut have been done in an alveolar ridge using Er:YAG laser with set power of 200 mJ (G1, 400 mJ (G2, piezosurgery unit (G3, and a saw (G4. The temperature was measured by K-type thermocouple. The highest temperature gradient was noted for piezosurgery on the buccal and lingual side of mandible. The temperature rises on the bone surface along with the increase of laser power. The lower time needed to perform ridge splitting was measured for a saw, piezosurgery, and Er:YAG laser with power of 400 mJ and 200 mJ, respectively. The temperature rise measured on the bone over 10°C and bone carbonization occurrence was not reported in all study groups. Piezosurgery, Er:YAG laser (200 mJ and 400 mJ, and surgical saw are useful and safe tools in ridge splitting surgery.

  10. A macroeconomic perspective on the rise of second-tier cities in the national and globalizing context of China

    OpenAIRE

    Cadez, Fabien; Cadez, Fabien

    2016-01-01

    Since China’s economic reforms in the late 1970s, foreign investments have initially flooded the so-called “first-tier cities” including Shanghai, Beijing, or even Shenzhen or Guangzhou. Due to rising labour costs, growing constraints over natural resources, long-term inflation and environmental issues among others (Zhuang et al. 2012; Zuojun, 2012), they have been undertaking structural economic adjustments in order to shift from a “late-developing advantage” to a “first-mover advantage” mod...

  11. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly Temperature, Version 4 (BETA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Only available as BETA release. The GHCN-Monthly Temperature Version 4 dataset consists of monthly mean temperature - both raw and bias corrected data. A full...

  12. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  13. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  14. Marking the success or end of global multi-stakeholder governance? The rise of national sustainability standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hospes, O.

    2014-01-01

    The RSPO and RTRS are global private partnerships that have been set up by business and civil society actors from the North to curb de-forestation and to promote sustainable production of palm oil or soy in the South. This article is about the launch of new national standards in Indonesia and Brazil

  15. Will Global Warming Cause a Rise in Sea Level? A Simple Activity about the States of Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguz, Ayse

    2009-01-01

    In this activity, a possible problem related to global warming is clarified by the principle of states of water. The activity consists of an experiment that includes three scientific principles: Archimedes' Principle, the Law of Conservation of Matter, and the fluidity of liquids. The experiment helps students raise questions and open new horizons…

  16. Synchronous drought and flooding in southern Chinese Loess Plateau in phase with the variation of global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Kang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and flooding, usually occurring in the catchment scale, are the main natural threats to human livelihood due to the extreme variation of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales. Within the context of global warming, the risk of flood and drought tends to increase in different regions. Understanding the mechanism of the regional occurrence of flood and drought is of enormous importance for the predicting studies and taking corresponding measures. However, the instrumental records are too short to conduct a prediction. Here, we present a historical-archive-based high-resolution dataset of drought and flooding back to AD 1646 in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. This sequence, integrated with the modern meteorological observation data, shows that the frequency of drought and flooding in the study region is synchronous on a decadal scale, and they are in phase with the increase in both global and regional temperature. During the warm period, the ENSO activity was found to be increase, resulting in the anomaly distribution of precipitation in different seasons in southern Chinese Loess Plateau, which is the reason for the temperature dependence of flooding and drought in this region. If global temperature continues to rise in the future, the risk of both drought and flooding in the study area would also increase.

  17. Computational modelling of temperature rises in the eye in the near field of radiofrequency sources at 380, 900 and 1800 MHz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, P. R.

    2007-07-01

    This paper reports calculations of the temperature rises induced in the eye and lens by near-field exposure to radiation from communication handsets, using the finite difference time domain method and classical bioheat equation. Various models are compared, including the analytic solution for a sphere, a finite element model of an isolated eye and a modern model of the whole head. The role of the blood supply to the choroid in moderating temperature is discussed. Three different frequencies are considered, namely 380 MHz (used by TETRA), and 900 and 1800 MHz (used by GSM mobile phones). At 380 MHz, monopole and helical antennas are compared. An 'equivalent blood flow' is derived for the choroid in order to facilitate comparison of the whole head and isolated eye models. In the whole head model, the heating of the lens receives a significant contribution from energy absorbed outside the eye. The temperature rise in the lens is compared to the ICNIRP-recommended average specific energy absorption rate (SAR) and the SAR averaged over the eye alone. The temperature rise may reach 1.4 °C at the ICNIRP occupational exposure limit if an antenna is placed less than 24 mm from the eye and the exposure is sufficiently prolonged.

  18. Computational modelling of temperature rises in the eye in the near field of radiofrequency sources at 380, 900 and 1800 MHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wainwright, P R

    2007-01-01

    This paper reports calculations of the temperature rises induced in the eye and lens by near-field exposure to radiation from communication handsets, using the finite difference time domain method and classical bioheat equation. Various models are compared, including the analytic solution for a sphere, a finite element model of an isolated eye and a modern model of the whole head. The role of the blood supply to the choroid in moderating temperature is discussed. Three different frequencies are considered, namely 380 MHz (used by TETRA), and 900 and 1800 MHz (used by GSM mobile phones). At 380 MHz, monopole and helical antennas are compared. An 'equivalent blood flow' is derived for the choroid in order to facilitate comparison of the whole head and isolated eye models. In the whole head model, the heating of the lens receives a significant contribution from energy absorbed outside the eye. The temperature rise in the lens is compared to the ICNIRP-recommended average specific energy absorption rate (SAR) and the SAR averaged over the eye alone. The temperature rise may reach 1.4 deg. C at the ICNIRP occupational exposure limit if an antenna is placed less than 24 mm from the eye and the exposure is sufficiently prolonged

  19. Multi-Objective Optimal Design of Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator Driving Motors for Low Temperature Rise and High Power Weight Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Hong

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of technology, motors have drawn increasing attention in aviation applications, especially in the more electrical aircraft and all electrical aircraft concepts. Power weight ratio and reliability are key parameters for evaluating the performance of equipment applied in aircraft. The temperature rise of the motor is closely related to the reliability of the motor. Therefore, based on Taguchi, a novel multi-objective optimization method for the heat dissipation structural design of an electro-hydrostatic actuator (EHA drive motor was proposed in this paper. First, the thermal network model of the EHA drive motor was established. Second, a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters affecting the cooling performance of the motor was conducted, such as the thickness of fins, the height of fins, the space of fins, the potting materials and the slot fill factor. Third, taking the average temperature of the windings and the power weight ratio as the optimization goal, the multi-objective optimal design of the heat dissipation structure of the motor was carried out by applying Taguchi. Then, a 3-D finite element model of the motor was established and the steady state thermal analysis was carried out. Furthermore, a prototype of the optimal motor was manufactured, and the temperature rise under full load condition tested. The result indicated that the motor with the optimized heat dissipating structure presented a low temperature rise and high power weight ratio, therefore validating the proposed optimization method.

  20. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

  1. The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Hallegatte, St.; Crassous, R.

    2008-09-01

    This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macro-economic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold: first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parametrization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. (authors)

  2. The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, Celine; Hallegatte, Stephane; Crassous, Renaud

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macroeconomic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold: first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parameterization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. (author)

  3. Introduction – Political Governance and Strategic Relations: Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus and China’s Rise in the Global System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed several momentous developments in the political economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC both on the domestic front and in her foreign relations. Deriving correct interpretation of such fast-paced developments and changes has preoccupied much of the circles of China-watchers these days, with political scientists, economists, sociologists and international relations experts focusing their respective attentions on either the domestic transformation occurring within the PRC or on her foreign relations. While the volatile series of incidents involving a year of crackdowns on domestic civil societal movements, civil rights lawyers, labour activists and Hong Kong’s book publishers and distributors were unfolding dramatically, the year also witnessed the continued rise of China’s economic might culminating in the realisation of her initiative for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB that started operation on 25th December 2015 and the continued progress of her “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR proposal after the creation of the State-owned Silk Road Fund on 29th December 2014. Such developments on China’s domestic and global fronts have to be properly placed in the overall context of China’s domestic-foreign policy nexus that has uniquely evolved during her recent decades of continuous, astounding economic tour de force amidst the stagnation of the modernisation and democratisation of her political structure and sociopolitical power configuration, and the rise of her influence in the global system.

  4. Introduction – Political Governance and Strategic Relations: Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus and China’s Rise in the Global System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed several momentous developments in the political economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC both on the domestic front and in her foreign relations. Deriving correct interpretation of such fast-paced developments and changes has preoccupied much of the circles of China-watchers these days, with political scientists, economists, sociologists and international relations experts focusing their respective attention on either the domestic transformation occurring within the PRC or on her foreign relations. While the volatile series of incidents involving a year of crackdowns on domestic civil societal movements, civil rights lawyers, labour activists and Hong Kong’s book publishers and distributors were unfolding dramatically, the year also witnessed the continued rise of China’s economic might culminating in the realisation of her initiative for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB that started operation on 25th December 201 5 and the continued progress of her “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR proposal after the creation of the State-owned Silk Road Fund on 29th December 201 4. Such developments on China’s domestic and global fronts has to be properly placed in the overall context of China’s domestic-foreign policy nexus that has uniquely evolved during from her recent decades of continuous, astounding economic tour de force amidst the stagnation of the modernisation and democratisation of her political structure and sociopolitical power configuration, and the rise of her influence in the global system.

  5. Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Eun Kyung; Lee, Jong-Koo

    2016-12-01

    This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH) was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC) was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in disease control. The

  6. Changes of Global Infectious Disease Governance in 2000s: Rise of Global Health Security and Transformation of Infectious Disease Control System in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun Kyung CHOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focus upon the changes of global infectious disease governance in 2000s and the transformation of infectious disease control system in South Korea. Traditionally, infectious disease was globally governed by the quarantine regulated by the international conventions. When an infectious disease outbreak occurred in one country, each country prevented transmission of the disease through the standardized quarantine since the installation of international sanitary convention in 1892. Republic of Korea also organized the infectious disease control system with quarantine and disease report procedure after the establishment of government. Additionally, Korea National Health Institute(KNIH was founded as research and training institute for infectious disease. However, traditional international health regulation system faced a serious challenge by the appearance of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease in 1990s. As a result, global infectious disease governance was rapidly changed under the demand to global disease surveillance and response. Moreover, global health security frame became important after 2001 bioterror and 2003 SARS outbreak. Consequently, international health regulation was fully revised in 2005, which included not only infectious disease but also public health emergency. The new international health regime was differently characterized in several aspects; reinforcement of global cooperation and surveillance, enlargement of the role of supranational and international agencies, and reorganization of national capacity. KNIH was reorganized with epidemic control and research since late 1990s. However, in 2004 Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention(KCDC was established as a disease control institution with combining quarantine and other functions after 2003 SARS outbreak. KCDC unified national function against infectious disease including prevention, protection, response and research, as a national representative in

  7. Global attractors for the coupled suspension bridge system with temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dell'Oro, Filippo; Giorgi, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 4 (2016), s. 864-875 ISSN 0170-4214 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : absorbing set * coupled bridge system * global attractor Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mma.3526/abstract

  8. Temperature rise during removal of fractured components out of the implant body: an in vitro study comparing two ultrasonic devices and five implant types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisberger, Eric W; Bakker, Sjoerd J G; Cune, Marco S

    2015-12-01

    Ultrasonic instrumentation under magnification may facilitate mobilization of screw remnants but may induce heat trauma to surrounding bone. An increase of 5°C is considered detrimental to osseointegration. The objective of this investigation was to examine the rise in temperature of the outer implant body after 30 s of ultrasonic instrumentation to the inner part, in relation to implant type, type of ultrasonic equipment, and the use of coolants in vitro. Two ultrasonic devices (Satelec Suprasson T Max and Electro Medical Systems (EMS) miniMaster) were used on five different implant types that were provided with a thermo couple (Astra 3.5 mm, bone level Regular CrossFit (RC) 4.1 mm, bone level Narrow CrossFit (NC) 3.3 mm, Straumann tissue level regular body regular neck 3.3 mm, and Straumann tissue level wide body regular neck 4.8 mm), either with or without cooling during 30 s. Temperature rise at this point in time is the primary outcome measure. In addition, the mean maximum rise in temperature (all implants combined) was assessed and statistically compared among devices, implant systems, and cooling mode (independent t-tests, ANOVA, and post hoc analysis). The Satelec device without cooling induces the highest temperature change of up to 13°C, particularly in both bone level implants (p < 0.05) but appears safe for approximately 10 s of continuous instrumentation, after which a cooling down period is rational. Cooling is effective for both devices. However, when the Satelec device is used with coolant for a longer period of time, a rise in temperature must be anticipated after cessation of instrumentation, and post-operational cooling is advised. The in vitro setup used in this experiment implies that care should be taken when translating the observations to clinical recommendations, but it is carefully suggested that the EMS device causes limited rise in temperature, even without coolant.

  9. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laakso, Ilkka

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m -2 was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 deg. C in the whole frequency range.

  10. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Ilkka

    2009-06-01

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m-2 was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 °C in the whole frequency range.

  11. Assessment of the computational uncertainty of temperature rise and SAR in the eyes and brain under far-field exposure from 1 to 10 GHz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laakso, Ilkka [Department of Radio Science and Engineering, Helsinki University of Technology, Otakaari 5 A, 02150 Espoo (Finland)], E-mail: ilkka.laakso@tkk.fi

    2009-06-07

    This paper presents finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of specific absorption rate (SAR) values in the head under plane-wave exposure from 1 to 10 GHz using a resolution of 0.5 mm in adult male and female voxel models. Temperature rise due to the power absorption is calculated by the bioheat equation using a multigrid method solver. The computational accuracy is investigated by repeating the calculations with resolutions of 1 mm and 2 mm and comparing the results. Cubically averaged 10 g SAR in the eyes and brain and eye-averaged SAR are calculated and compared to the corresponding temperature rise as well as the recommended limits for exposure. The results suggest that 2 mm resolution should only be used for frequencies smaller than 2.5 GHz, and 1 mm resolution only under 5 GHz. Morphological differences in models seemed to be an important cause of variation: differences in results between the two different models were usually larger than the computational error due to the grid resolution, and larger than the difference between the results for open and closed eyes. Limiting the incident plane-wave power density to smaller than 100 W m{sup -2} was sufficient for ensuring that the temperature rise in the eyes and brain were less than 1 deg. C in the whole frequency range.

  12. Aesthetic primitivism revisited: The global diaspora of ‘primitive art’ and the rise of indigenous modernisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth B. Phillips

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the global export of the construct of primitive art which developed in Europe in the early-twentieth century and the catalytic role it played in the emergence of modernist art forms produced by Indigenous peoples. It argues for the need to distinguish between sociological primitivism grounded in cultural evolutionist theory and the aesthetic primitivism promoted by artists, ethnologists and patrons who admired and appropriated the traditional arts of non-Western peoples classified as 'primitive.' Case studies of two refugees from Nazi Europe, German ethnologist Leonhard Adam and Austrian artist George Swinton, demonstrate the tension between received understandings of primitive art and these men's growing awareness, following emigration, of Indigenous modernities. It also led to their active promotion of modern Australian Aboriginal and Inuit arts, despite the undoubted links between aesthetic primitivism and the oppressive assimilationist policies justified through sociological primitivism.

  13. Is climate predictable?. Fear of global warming and rise of sea levels; Laesst sich das Klima in die Karten schauen?. Globale Erwaermung und Anstieg des Meeresspiegels befuerchtet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H [Weltorganisation fuer Meteorologie (WMO), Genf (Switzerland)

    1995-02-01

    Scientific warnings of world-wide climate changes through human activities were voiced even as long ago as 100 years before now. A chain of evidence reaching into our time has since turned up. With the first UN world climate conference in 1979, climate change became a concern of climatologists all over the world. Many scientists fear that man has already triggered global warming by emissions of trace gases into the atmosphere. (orig.) [Deutsch] Wissenschaftliche Warnungen vor weltweiten Klimaveraenderungen durch den Menschen reichen inzwischen rund 100 Jahre zurueck. Seither fuehrt eine Kette von Befunden bis in unsere Zeit. Mit der ersten UN-Weltklimakonferenz im Jahr 1979 wurden sie zu einem internationalen Anliegen der Klimatologie. Viele Wissenschaftler befuerchten, dass der Mensch mit Emissionen von Spurengasen in die Atmosphaere eine globale Erwaermung bereits angestossen hat. (orig.)

  14. Characteristics of DC electrical braking method of the gas circulator to limit the temperature rise at the heat transfer pipes in the HTTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, K.; Saito, K.; Iyoku, T.

    2001-01-01

    In the safety evaluation of a High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR), it must be confirmed that the core has no chance to be damaged and the barrier against the FP release is designed properly not to be affecting the influence of radiation around the reactor site. Especially the maximum temperature of the reactor pressure boundary such as the heat transfer pipes of pressurized water cooler (PWC) must not exceed the permissible values under an anticipated accident such as pipe of rupture in PWC. A requirement for the gas circulator which circulates helium gas in the primary cooling line and the secondary cooling line, is to be braked within 10 seconds by an electrical braking method after the HTTR reactor has scrammed under the accident in PWC. The reason is that the temperature rise of the heat transfer pipe at PWC has to be suppressed when the gas circulator has stopped, the revolution of the gas circulator decreases like the free coast down so that it takes about 90 seconds to be zero and the temperature rise of the pipe in the PWC exceeds the permissible value. By braking within 10 secs., the temperature of the pipe in the PWC reaches about 368 deg. C, less than the permissible value. Using a simplified equivalent circuit of an induction motor, braking time analysis was performed with obtained electrical resistance and inductance. The obtained braking time is about 10 secs., showing close agreement with analysis values. (author)

  15. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  16. Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2015-08-01

    We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

  17. Thermographic analysis of the effect of composite type, layering method, and curing light on the temperature rise of photo-cured composites in tooth cavities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Ryan Jin-Young; Ferracane, Jack; Lee, In-Bog

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate temperature rise in the composite and dentin of a class I cavity in extracted human molars under different restoration conditions, including the use of different composite types, layering methods, and curing lights. Open occlusal cavities were prepared on 28 extracted human molars. A conventional (Filtek Z250) and a bulk-fill (Filtek Bulk Fill Posterior; BFP) composite were used to restore the preparations. BFP was incrementally layered or bulk-filled. Bulk-filled BFP was cured with two different lights, the Elipar S10 and the BeLite. Each layer was illuminated for 20s, while thermograms of the specimens were recorded for 100s using an infrared thermal camera. Temperature changes on the composite and dentin surfaces were obtained at points of interest (POI) pertaining to successive incremental distances of 0.75mm from the top of the cavity to the pulp. The polymerization kinetics of each composite was determined using photo-differential scanning calorimetry. The greatest temperature rise was observed 0.75mm apical from the top of the cavity. All groups showed over 6°C maximum temperature rise (ΔT max ) at the pulpal side of the dentin. Upon curing, Z250 reached ΔT=5°C faster than BFP; however, ΔT max of the two composites were comparable at any POI. Bulk filling showed greater ΔT max than incremental filling at 0.75mm apical from the top and in the middle of the cavity. The Elipar S10 light generated faster temperature changes in the curing composite at all recorded positions throughout the depth of the cavity and greater ΔT max in all POIs compared to BeLite. Real-time thermographic analysis demonstrated that the composite type and layering method did not influence the temperature rise at the pulpal side of dentin during composite restoration of an occlusal preparation in a tooth. The amount and initial rate of temperature increase was most affected by the radiant exposure of the light curing unit. Within the

  18. Heat flux estimate of warm water flow in a low-temperature diffuse flow site, southern East Pacific Rise 17°25‧ S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Shusaku; Kinoshita, Masataka; Mitsuzawa, Kyohiko

    2003-09-01

    A low-temperature diffuse flow site associated with abundant vent fauna was found by submersible observations on the southern East Pacific Rise at 17°25‧ S in 1997. This site was characterized by thin sediment covered pillow and sheet lavas with collapsed pits up to ˜15 m in diameter. There were three warm water vents (temperature: 6.5 to 10.5 °C) within the site above which the vented fluids rise as plumes. To estimate heat flux of the warm water vents, a temperature logger array was deployed and the vertical temperature distribution in the water column up to 38 m above the seafloor was monitored. A stationary deep seafloor observatory system was also deployed to monitor hydrothermal activity in this site. The temperature logger array measured temperature anomalies, while the plumes from the vents passed through the array. Because the temperature anomalies were measured in only specific current directions, we identified one of the vents as the source. Heat flux from the vent was estimated by applying a plume model in crossflow in a density-stratified environment. The average heat flux from September 13 to October 18, 1997 was 39 MW. This heat flux is as same order as those of high-temperature black smokers, indicating that a large volume flux was discharged from the vent (1.9 m3/s). Previous observations found many similar warm water flow vents along the spreading axis between 17°20‧ S 30‧ S. The total heat flux was estimated to be at least a few hundred mega-watts. This venting style would contribute to form effluent hydrothermal plumes extended above the spreading axis.

  19. Rising global burden of breast cancer: the case of sub-Saharan Africa (with emphasis on Nigeria) and implications for regional development: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azubuike, Samuel O; Muirhead, Colin; Hayes, Louise; McNally, Richard

    2018-03-22

    Despite mortality from breast cancer in Africa being higher than in high income countries, breast cancer has not been extensively studied in the region. The aim of this paper was to highlight the rising burden of breast cancer with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa as well as trends, characteristics, controversies and their implications for regional development. A review of published studies and documents was conducted in Medline, Scopus, Pubmed and Google using combinations of key words-breast neoplasm, breast cancer, cancer, incidence, mortality, Africa, Nigeria. Graphical and frequency analyses were carried out on some of the incidence and mortality figures retrieved from published papers and the GLOBOCAN website. Globally, about 25% and 15% of all new cancer cases and cancer deaths respectively among females were due to breast cancer. Africa currently had the highest age-standardized breast cancer mortality rate globally, with the highest incidence rates being recorded within the sub-Saharan African sub-region. Incidence trends such as inherently aggressive tumour and younger age profile had been subject to controversies. Certain factors such as westernized diet, urbanization and possibly increasing awareness had been implicated, though their specific contributions were yet to be fully established. Unless urgent action is taken, breast cancer will compound sub-Saharan Africa's disease burden, increase poverty and gender inequality as well as reverse the current global gains against maternal and neonatal mortality.

  20. Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and ... Surface air tempera- ture is one of the factors that influence monsoon variability. The distribution of surface air temper- ature over land and sea determines the locations ..... Asia, north Indian Ocean, northeast Russia and.

  1. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, E.; Pišoft, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2016), s. 231-249 ISSN 2190-4979 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atlantic multidecadal osciallation * pacific decadal oscillation * surface-temperature * 20th century reanalysis * southern-oscilation * internal variability * irradiance Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.635, year: 2016

  2. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  3. Reversible conformational transition gives rise to 'zig-zag' temperature dependence of the rate constant of irreversible thermoinactivation of enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitsky VYu; Melik-Nubarov, N S; Siksnis, V A; Grinberg VYa; Burova, T V; Levashov, A V; Mozhaev, V V

    1994-01-15

    We have obtained unusual 'zig-zag' temperature dependencies of the rate constant of irreversible thermoinactivation (k(in)) of enzymes (alpha-chymotrypsin, covalently modified alpha-chymotrypsin, and ribonuclease) in a plot of log k(in) versus reciprocal temperature (Arrhenius plot). These dependencies are characterized by the presence of both ascending and descending linear portions which have positive and negative values of the effective activation energy (Ea), respectively. A kinetic scheme has been suggested that fits best for a description of these zig-zag dependencies. A key element of this scheme is the temperature-dependent reversible conformational transition of enzyme from the 'low-temperature' native state to a 'high-temperature' denatured form; the latter form is significantly more stable against irreversible thermoinactivation than the native enzyme. A possible explanation for a difference in thermal stabilities is that low-temperature and high-temperature forms are inactivated according to different mechanisms. Existence of the suggested conformational transition was proved by the methods of fluorescence spectroscopy and differential scanning calorimetry. The values of delta H and delta S for this transition, determined from calorimetric experiments, are highly positive; this fact underlies a conclusion that this heat-induced transition is caused by an unfolding of the protein molecule. Surprisingly, in the unfolded high-temperature conformation, alpha-chymotrypsin has a pronounced proteolytic activity, although this activity is much smaller than that of the native enzyme.

  4. NODC Standard Product: Global ocean temperature and salinity profiles (2 disc set) (NODC Accession 0098058)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of CD-ROMs contains global ocean temperature and salinity profiles derived from NODC archive data files. It includes oceanographic station (bottle) data,...

  5. Evaluation of an Absorption Heat Pump to Mitigate Plant Capacity Reduction Due to Ambient Temperature Rise for an Air-Cooled Ammonia and Water Cycle: Preprint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bharathan, D.; Nix, G.

    2001-01-01

    Air-cooled geothermal plants suffer substantial decreases in generating capacity at increased ambient temperatures. As the ambient temperature rises by 50 F above a design value of 50 F, at low brine-resource temperatures, the decrease in generating capacity can be more than 50%. This decrease is caused primarily by increased condenser pressure. Using mixed-working fluids has recently drawn considerable attention for use in power cycles. Such cycles are more readily amenable to use of absorption ''heat pumps.'' For a system that uses ammonia and water as the mixed-working fluid, this paper evaluates using an absorption heat pump to reduce condenser backpressure. At high ambient temperatures, part of the turbine exhaust vapor is absorbed into a circulating mixed stream in an absorber in series with the main condenser. This steam is pumped up to a higher pressure and heated to strip the excess vapor, which is recondensed using an additional air-cooled condenser. The operating conditions are chosen to reconstitute this condensate back to the same concentration as drawn from the original system. We analyzed two power plants of nominal 1-megawatt capacity. The design resource temperatures were 250 F and 300 F. Ambient temperature was allowed to rise from a design value of 50 F to 100 F. The analyses indicate that using an absorption heat pump is feasible. For the 300 F resource, an increased brine flow of 30% resulted in a net power increase of 21%. For the 250 F resource, the increase was smaller. However, these results are highly plant- and equipment-specific because evaluations must be carried out at off-design conditions for the condenser. Such studies should be carried out for specific power plants that suffer most from increased ambient temperatures

  6. Spatio-temporal interpolation of daily temperatures for global land areas at 1 km resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kilibarda, M.; Hengl, T.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Graler, B.; Pebesma, E.; Tadic, M.P.; Bajat, B.

    2014-01-01

    Combined Global Surface Summary of Day and European Climate Assessment and Dataset daily meteorological data sets (around 9000 stations) were used to build spatio-temporal geostatistical models and predict daily air temperature at ground resolution of 1km for the global land mass. Predictions in

  7. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  8. Comparison of the Amount of Temperature Rise in the Pulp Chamber of Teeth Treated With QTH, Second and Third Generation LED Light Curing Units: An In Vitro Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahant, Rajesh Harivadanbhai; Chokshi, Shraddha; Vaidya, Rupal; Patel, Pruthvi; Vora, Asima; Mahant, Priyanka

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: This in vitro study was designed to measure and compare the amount of temperature rise in the pulp chamber of the teeth exposed to different light curing units (LCU), which are being used for curing composite restorations. Methods: The study was performed in two settings; first, an in vitro and second was mimicking an in vivo situation. In the first setup of the study, three groups were formed according to the respective three light curing sources. i.e. quartz-tungsten-halogen (QTH) unit and two light-emitting diode (LED) units (second and third generations). In the in vitro setting, direct thermal emission from three light sources at 3 mm and 6 mm distances, was measured with a k-type thermocouple, and connected to a digital thermometer. For a simulation of an in vivo situation, 30 premolar teeth were used. Class I Occlusal cavity of all the teeth were prepared and they were restored with incremental curing of composite, after bonding agent application. While curing the bonding agent and composite in layers, the intrapulpal temperature rise was simultaneously measured with a k-type thermocouple. Results: The first setting of the study showed that the heat produced by irradiation with LCU was significantly less at 6 mm distance when compared to 3 mm distance. The second setting of the study showed that the rise of intrapulpal temperature was significantly less with third generation LED light cure units than with second generation LED and QTH light cure units. Conclusion: As the distance from the light source increases, less irradiation heat is produced. Third generation LED lights cause the least temperature change in the pulp chamber of single rooted teeth.

  9. Effect of high intensity vs. soft-start halogen irradiation on light-cured resin-based composites. Part I. Temperature rise and polymerization shrinkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Norbert; Markert, Tanja; Hugo, Burkard; Klaiber, Bernd

    2003-12-01

    To determine polymerization shrinkage kinetics and temperature rise of light-cured resin-based composites after high intensity vs. soft-start quartz tungsten halogen irradiation. Shrinkage kinetics was evaluated using the "deflecting disk technique", modified for simultaneous measurement of temperature within the resin-based composite using a thermocouple. Additional irradiations after 60 and 65 minutes allowed the determination of temperature rises caused by radiation or by reaction heat. Four hybrids (Filtek Z250, Herculite, Solitaire 2, Tetric Ceram), an inhomogeneously filled hybrid (InTen-S) and a microfill (Filtek A110, formerly Silux Plus) were cured using the quartz tungsten halogen units Astralis 10 and Optilux 501 in the high intensity (A10 HiPo: 10 seconds at 1300 mW/cm2; OL Boost: 10 seconds at 1140 mW/cm2) or soft-start modes (A10 Pulse: increase to 700 mW/cm2 within 10 seconds, three periods of 2 seconds at 1300 mW/cm2 alternating with two periods of 2 seconds at 700 mW/cm2; OL Ramp: exponential increase within 10 seconds, followed by 10 seconds at 1140 mW/cm2). The soft-start protocols produced less contraction, and polymerization shrinkage started later and progressed slower (or: more slowly), compared to high intensity irradiation [correction]. The lowest shrinkage was observed for InTen-S, followed by Filtek Z250 and A110, whereas Solitaire 2, Herculite and Tetric Ceram scored highest for this parameter. Temperature rise was caused more or less equally by radiation and by reaction heat and reached values of up to 28.9 degrees C relative to a baseline of 37 degrees C. For some combinations of curing modes and resin-based composites, less heat was generated by the soft-start protocols and by Optilux 501.

  10. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  11. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Steinbrecht

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

  13. Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

    2015-01-01

    There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.

  14. Rare-earth elements and uranium in high-temperature solutions from East Pacific Rise hydrothermal vent field (130N)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michard, A.; Albarede, F.; Michard, G.; Minster, J.F.; Charlou, J.L.

    1983-01-01

    The mobility of rare-earth elements (REE) and U during hydrothermal alteration of the basalts at spreading centres has long been a matter of concern because of its bearing on the evolution and recycling of the oceanic crust. Previous approaches to this problem have been indirect, through studies on altered dredged basalts or ophiolites. Sampling of hydrothermal vent waters from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 13 0 N is reported. It provides the first direct evidence of REE-enriched solutions which, however, leave the budget of these elements in the crust and the ocean rather unmodified. In constrast, uranium, like magnesium, is quantitatively taken up from the seawater during the hydrothermal process. (author)

  15. The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

    2017-05-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

  16. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Lang, Johannes; Langset, Magdalene; Lescroël, Amélie; Lorentsen, Svein-Hâkon; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Mallory, Mark; Moe, Børge; Montevecchi, William A.; Monticelli, David; Mostello, Carolyn; Newell, Mark; Nicholson, Lisa; Nisbet, Ian; Olsson, Olof; Oro, Daniel; Pattison, Vivian; Poisbleau, Maud; Pyk, Tanya; Quintana, Flavio; Ramos, Jaime A.; Ramos, Raül; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Rodríguez, Cristina; Ryan, Peter; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Schmidt, Niels M.; Shannon, Paula; Sittler, Benoit; Southwell, Colin; Surman, Christopher; Svagelj, Walter S.; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Warzybok, Pete; Watanuki, Yutaka; Weimerskirch, Henri; Wilson, Peter R.; Wood, Andrew G.; Phillimore, Albert B.; Lewis, Sue

    2018-04-01

    Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr-1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days °C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.

  17. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  18. Numerical study of RF exposure and the resulting temperature rise in the foetus during a magnetic resonance procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hand, J W; Li, Y; Hajnal, J V

    2010-01-01

    Numerical simulations of specific absorption rate (SAR) and temperature changes in a 26-week pregnant woman model within typical birdcage body coils as used in 1.5 T and 3 T MRI scanners are described. Spatial distributions of SAR and the resulting spatial and temporal changes in temperature are determined using a finite difference time domain method and a finite difference bio-heat transfer solver that accounts for discrete vessels. Heat transfer from foetus to placenta via the umbilical vein and arteries as well as that across the foetal skin/amniotic fluid/uterine wall boundaries is modelled. Results suggest that for procedures compliant with IEC normal mode conditions (maternal whole-body averaged SAR MWB ≤ 2 W kg -1 (continuous or time-averaged over 6 min)), whole foetal SAR, local foetal SAR 10g and average foetal temperature are within international safety limits. For continuous RF exposure at SAR MWB = 2 W kg -1 over periods of 7.5 min or longer, a maximum local foetal temperature >38 deg. C may occur. However, assessment of the risk posed by such maximum temperatures predicted in a static model is difficult because of frequent foetal movement. Results also confirm that when SAR MWB = 2 W kg -1 , some local SAR 10g values in the mother's trunk and extremities exceed recommended limits.

  19. Rise-to-power test in High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor. Test progress and summary of test results up to 30 MW of reactor thermal power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Shigeaki; Fujimoto, Nozomu; Shimakawa, Satoshi

    2002-08-01

    The High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) is a graphite moderated and gas cooled reactor with the thermal power of 30 MW and the reactor outlet coolant temperature of 850degC/950degC. Rise-to-power test in the HTTR was performed from April 23rd to June 6th in 2000 as phase 1 test up to 10 MW in the rated operation mode, from January 29th to March 1st in 2001 as phase 2 test up to 20 MW in the rated operation mode and from April 14th to June 8th in 2001 as phase 3 test up to 20 MW in the high temperature test the mechanism of the reactor outlet coolant temperature becomes 850degC at 30 MW in the rated operation mode and 950degC in the high temperature test operation mode. Phase 4 rise-to-power test to achieve the thermal reactor power of 30 MW started on October 23rd in 2001. On December 7th in 2001 it was confirmed that the thermal reactor power and the reactor outlet coolant temperature reached to 30 MW and 850degC respectively in the single loaded operation mode in which only the primary pressurized water cooler is operating. Phase 4 test was performed until March 6th in 2002. JAERI (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute) obtained the certificate of the pre-operation test from MEXT (Ministry of Education Culture Sports Science and Technology) after all the pre-operation tests by MEXT were passed successfully with the reactor transient test at an abnormal event as a final pre-operation test. From the test results of the rise-up-power test up to 30 MW in the rated operation mode, performance of the reactor and cooling system were confirmed, and it was also confirmed that an operation of reactor facility can be performed safely. Some problems to be solved were found through the tests. By solving them, the reactor operation with the reactor outlet coolant temperature of 950degC will be achievable. (author)

  20. A multi-scale approach of mechanical and transport properties of cementitious materials under rises of temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caratini, G.

    2012-01-01

    The modern industrial activities (storage of nuclear waste, geothermal wells, nuclear power plants,...) can submit cementitious materials to some extreme conditions, for example at temperatures above 200 C. This level of temperature will induce phenomena of dehydration in the cement paste, particularly impacting the CSH hydrates which led to the mechanical cohesion. The effects of these temperatures on the mechanical and transport properties have been the subject of this thesis.To understand these effects, we need to take into account the heterogeneous, porous, multi-scale aspects of these materials. To do this, micro-mechanics and homogenization tools based on the Eshelby problem's solution were used. Moreover, to support this multi-scale modeling, mechanical testing based on the theory of porous media were conducted. The measurements of modulus compressibility, permeability and porosity under confining pressure were used to investigate the mechanisms of degradation of these materials during thermal loads up to 400 C. (author)

  1. Evaluation of the temperature rise in pulp chamber during class V preparation with Er:YAG laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picinini, Leonardo Santos

    2001-01-01

    One of the major concerns regarding laser irradiation in the dentistry field is the overheating in dental tissue, specially pulpal tissue. A temperature raise over 5.5 deg C is considered to be harmful to its vitality. The current study evaluated the temperature increase in the pulp chamber, during class V preparation, performed with the laser Er:YAG in 36 bovine incisive extracted teeth. The samples were eroded on the outer side of the vestibular wall to obtain the dentinal thickness of 2.0 mm (group I), 1.0 mm (group II) and 0.5 mm (group III). Thermocouples were fixed to the inner part of the vestibular wall using thermal paste, through the palatine opening of the samples. Class V cavities were prepared in the vestibular side only in 1 mm 2 thick dentins. Irradiation parameters used were: 500 mJ/10 Hz, 850 mJ/10 Hz and 1 000 mJ/10 Hz for all the groups. The results were processed by a microcomputer. This study showed that the temperature increased into the pulpal cavity reached around 3 deg C for the groups I (2,0 mm thick dentine) and II (1.0 mm thick dentine). In the group III (0.5 mm thick) temperature was around 5.5 deg C. Thus, the parameters used for cavity preparation, using Er:YAG laser, were safe in relation to the temperature raise for dentinal thickness of 1,0 and 2,0 mm; in 0.5 mm thick dentins, temperature increase reached 5.5 deg C and an appropriate correction in the laser parameters was necessary. (author)

  2. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan

    2018-01-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role

  3. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris" : An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-01-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these

  4. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

  5. CALCULATED TEMPERATURE RISE AND THERMAL ELONGATION OF STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS, DEPENDING ON ACTION INTEGRAL OF INJECTED LIGHTNING CURRENTS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Søren Find

    2005-01-01

    expressions established, accounts for the geometry of the structure (round conductor, rectangular cross section, pipe, plane sheet, etc), the material properties (Aluminum, Copper, Carbon Fiber Composites, etc.), the frequency of the current (skin depth) and the Specific Energy (Action Integral). For linear...... structures (wires, bars etc.), the result is the resistance of the structure, the final temperature, and the thermal elongation depending on geometry and material properties. Regarding arc injection in the centre of plane specimens the equations enables calculation of the temperature as a function...

  6. Temperature Sensor Feasibility Study of Wireless Sensor Network Applications for Heating Efficiency Maintenance in High-Rise Apartment Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freliha B.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cities are responsible for 60%-80% of the world’s energy use and for approximately the same percentage of greenhouse gas emissions. The existing multi-apartment buildings of multifamily housing sector are often energy inefficient, and the heating system does not ensure optimization of heat distribution of individual apartments. Heat distribution, heating system balancing, heat loss detection and calculation, individual heat energy accounting are difficult tasks to accomplish. This article deals with the temperature monitoring system designed to retrieve temperature differences necessary for overall building heat monitoring and individual apartment monitoring. The sensor testing case study process and its measurements are analysed.

  7. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  8. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  9. Influence of light curing unit and ceramic thickness on temperature rise during resin cement photo-activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiraldo, Ricardo Danil; Consani, Simonides; Mastrofrancisco, Sarina; Consani, Rafael Leonardo Xediek; Sinhoreti, Mario Alexandre Coelho; Correr-Sobrinho, Lourenço

    2008-11-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of different ceramic thickness on heat generation during resin cement photo-activation by QTH (quartz-tungsten-halogen), LED (light emitting diode), and PAC (plasma arc-curing) LCUs (light curing units). The resin cement used was Rely X ARC (3M-ESPE), and the ceramic was IPS Empress Esthetic (Ivoclar-Vivadent), of which 0.7-, 1.4- and 2.0-mm thick disks, 0.8 mm in diameter were made. Temperature increase was recorded with a type-K thermocouple connected to a digital thermometer (Iopetherm 46). An acrylic resin base was built to guide the thermocouple and support the 1.0-mm thick dentin disk. A 0.1-mm thick black adhesive paper matrix with a perforation 6 mm in diameter was placed on the dentin to contain the resin cement and support the ceramic disks of different thicknesses. Three LCUs were used: QTH, LED and PAC. Nine groups were formed (n=10) according to the interaction: 3 ceramic thicknesses, 1 resin cement and 3 photo-activation methods. Temperature increase data were submitted to Tukey's test (5%). For all ceramic thicknesses, a statistically significant difference in temperature increase was observed among the LCUs, with the highest mean value for the QTH LCU (p0.05). The interaction of higher energy density with smaller ceramic thickness showed higher temperature increase values.

  10. ATSR sea surface temperature data in a global analysis with TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data from the ERS 1 satellite mission are used in a global analysis of the surface temperature of the oceans. The data are the low resolution 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees average temperatures and cover about 24 months. At global scales a significant seasonal...... variability is found. On each of the hemispheres the surface temperatures reach their maximum after summer heating. The seasonal sea level variability, as observed from TOPEX/POSEIDON, reaches its maximum 1.1-1.4 months later....

  11. The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

    2003-07-01

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

  12. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  13. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  14. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  15. Numerical studies of tool diameter on strain rates, temperature rises and grain sizes in friction stir welding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zhao; Qi, Wu [Dalian University of Technology, Dalian (China)

    2015-10-15

    Fully coupled thermo-mechanical model is used to obtain the true strain components. The sizes of the TMAZ and the SZ are predicted according to the different behaviors of the traced material particles. The strain rate and the temperature histories are used to calculate the Zener-Hollomon parameter and then the grain size in the SZ. Results indicate that the contribution from the temperatures is much more important than the one from the deformations. The strain rates at the advancing side are higher than the ones at the retreating side on the top surface but become symmetrical on the bottom surface. The widths of the TMAZ and the SZ become narrower in smaller shoulder diameter. Smaller shoulder can lead to smaller grain size in the SZ.

  16. Rising water temperatures, reproduction and recruitment of an invasive oyster, Crassostrea gigas, on the French Atlantic coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutertre, Mickaël; Beninger, Peter G; Barillé, Laurent; Papin, Mathias; Haure, Joël

    2010-02-01

    The recent appearance and invasion of feral oysters (Crassostrea gigas) along the northern European Atlantic coast, underscores the necessity to investigate the relationship between environmental variables, reproductive physiology, larval development and recruitment. We studied these relationships at both high (HT) and intermediate (IT) - turbidity sites, through historical data on water temperatures, multi-parameter environmental probes, histological analyses, and field collections of planktonic larvae and settled post-larvae in 2005 and 2006. A progressive warming trend was observed, especially since 1995, when oyster proliferation first became severe. Threshold temperatures for oocyte growth, larval development and settlement were achieved in both 2005 and 2006. The HT site showed greater numbers of larvae and post-larvae than the IT site for both years, with the highest numbers of post-larvae observed at both sites during the warmer summer of 2006. These results suggest that increased temperatures in northern European waters allow successful reproduction, larval development, and recruitment of C. gigas. High turbidity conditions further enhance this success. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Conditions giving rise to intense visible room temperature photoluminescence in SrWO4 thin films: the role of disorder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orhan, E.; Anicete-Santos, M.; Maurera, M.A.M.A.; Pontes, F.M.; Paiva-Santos, C.O.; Souza, A.G.; Varela, J.A.; Pizani, P.S.; Longo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The nature of intense visible photoluminescence at room temperature of SrWO 4 (SWO) non-crystalline thin films is discussed in the light of experimental results and theoretical calculations. The SWO thin films were synthesized by the polymeric precursors method. Their structural properties have been obtained by X-ray diffraction data and the corresponding photoluminescence (PL) spectra have been measured. The UV-vis optical spectra measurements suggest the creation of localized states in the disordered structure. The photoluminescence measurements reveal that the PL changes with the degree of disorder in the SWO thin film. To understand the origin of visible PL at room temperature in disordered SWO, we performed quantum-mechanical calculations on crystalline and disordered SWO periodic models. Their electronic structures are analyzed in terms of DOS, band dispersion and charge densities. We used DFT method with the hybrid non-local B3LYP approximation. The polarization induced by the symmetry break and the existence of localized levels favors the creation of trapped holes and electrons, giving origin to the room temperature photoluminescence phenomenon in the SWO thin films

  18. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  19. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  20. Brazils Rise to Global Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    International Relations ISI Import Substitution Industrialization LATAM Latin America MERCOSUR South American Common Market NAFTA North American Free...numerous occasions that they view BRIC as an emerging trade bloc that will eventually constitute an alternative to the Western-dominated system led by...capabilities.208 As an offensive realist, Niccolo Machiavelli argues that the ends justify the means.209 Therefore, what constitutes ‘the right’ must

  1. Determination of the Optimum Heat Transfer Coefficient and Temperature Rise Analysis for a Lithium-Ion Battery under the Conditions of Harbin City Bus Driving Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the heat problems that occur during the operation of power batteries, especially thermal runaway, which usually take place in high temperature environments. The study was conducted on a ternary polymer lithium-ion battery. In addition, a lumped parameter thermal model was established to analyze the thermal behavior of the electric bus battery system under the operation conditions of the driving cycles of the Harbin city electric buses. Moreover, the quantitative relationship between the optimum heat transfer coefficient of the battery and the ambient temperature was investigated. The relationship between the temperature rise (Tr, the number of cycles (c, and the heat transfer coefficient (h under three Harbin bus cycles have been investigated at 30 °C, because it can provide a basis for the design of the battery thermal management system. The results indicated that the heat transfer coefficient that meets the requirements of the battery thermal management system is the cubic power function of the ambient temperature. Therefore, if the ambient temperature is 30 °C, the heat transfer coefficient should be at least 12 W/m2K in the regular bus lines, 22 W/m2K in the bus rapid transit lines, and 32 W/m2K in the suburban lines.

  2. The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

  3. Personalized Hydration Strategy Attenuates the Rise in Heart Rate and in Skin Temperature Without Altering Cycling Capacity in the Heat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Melo-Marins

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The optimal hydration plan [i.e., drink to thirst, ad libitum (ADL, or personalized plan] to be adopted during exercise in recreational athletes has recently been a matter of debate and, due to conflicting results, consensus does not exist. In the present investigation, we tested whether a personalized hydration strategy based on sweat rate would affect cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses and exercise capacity in the heat. Eleven recreational male cyclists underwent two familiarization cycling sessions in the heat (34°C, 40% RH where sweat rate was also determined. A fan was used to enhance sweat evaporation. Participants then performed three randomized time-to-exhaustion (TTE trials in the heat with different hydration strategies: personalized volume (PVO, where water was consumed, based on individual sweat rate, every 10 min; ADL, where free access to water was allowed; and a control (CON trial with no fluids. Blood osmolality and urine-specific gravity were measured before each trial. Heart rate (HR, rectal, and skin temperatures were monitored throughout trials. Time to exhaustion at 70% of maximal workload was used to define exercise capacity in the heat, which was similar in all trials (p = 0.801. Body mass decreased after ADL (p = 0.008 and CON (p < 0.001 and was maintained in PVO trials (p = 0.171. Participants consumed 0 ml in CON, 166 ± 167 ml in ADL, and 1,080 ± 166 ml in PVO trials. The increase in mean body temperature was similar among trials despite a lower increase in skin temperature during PVO trial in comparison with CON (2.1 ± 0.6 vs. 2.9 ± 0.5°C, p = 0.0038. HR was lower toward the end of TTE in PVO (162 ± 8 bpm in comparison with ADL (168 ± 12 bpm and CON (167 ± 10 bpm, p < 0.001. In conclusion, a personalized hydration strategy can reduce HR during a moderate to high intensity exercise session in the heat and halt the increase in skin

  4. Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

    The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

  5. Evidence on a link between the intensity of Schumann resonance and global surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sekiguchi

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available A correlation is investigated between the intensity of the global electromagnetic oscillations (Schumann resonance with the planetary surface temperature. The electromagnetic signal was monitored at Moshiri (Japan, and temperature data were taken from surface meteorological observations. The series covers the period from November 1998 to May 2002. The Schumann resonance intensity is found to vary coherently with the global ground temperature in the latitude interval from 45° S to 45° N: the relevant cross-correlation coefficient reaches the value of 0.9. It slightly increases when the high-latitude temperature is incorporated. Correspondence among the data decreases when we reduce the latitude interval, which indicates the important role of the middle-latitude lightning in the Schumann resonance oscillations. We apply the principal component (or singular spectral analysis to the electromagnetic and temperature records to extract annual, semiannual, and interannual variations. The principal component analysis (PCA clarifies the links between electromagnetic records and meteorological data.

  6. Explaining global increases in water use efficiency: why have we overestimated responses to rising atmospheric CO(2 in natural forest ecosystems?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas C R Silva

    Full Text Available The analysis of tree-ring carbon isotope composition (δ(13C has been widely used to estimate spatio-temporal variations in intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE of tree species. Numerous studies have reported widespread increases in iWUE coinciding with rising atmospheric CO(2 over the past century. While this could represent a coherent global response, the fact that increases of similar magnitude were observed across biomes with no apparent effect on tree growth raises the question of whether iWUE calculations reflect actual physiological responses to elevated CO(2 levels.Here we use Monte Carlo simulations to test if an artifact of calculation could explain observed increases in iWUE. We show that highly significant positive relationships between iWUE and CO(2 occur even when simulated data (randomized δ(13C values spanning the observed range are used in place of actual tree-ring δ(13C measurements. From simulated data sets we calculated non-physiological changes in iWUE from 1900 to present and across a 4000 m altitudinal range. This generated results strikingly similar to those reported in recent studies encompassing 22 species from tropical, subtropical, temperate, boreal and mediterranean ecosystems. Only 6 of 49 surveyed case studies showed increases in iWUE significantly higher than predicted from random values.Our results reveal that increases in iWUE estimated from tree-ring δ(13C occur independently of changes in (13C discrimination that characterize physiological responses to elevated CO(2. Due to a correlation with CO(2 concentration, which is used as an independent factor in the iWUE calculation, any tree-ring δ(13C data set would inevitably generate increasing iWUE over time. Therefore, although consistent, previously reported trends in iWUE do not necessarily reflect a coherent global response to rising atmospheric CO(2. We discuss the significance of these findings and suggest ways to distinguish real from artificial

  7. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change? Será o crescimento mundial de incidência da asma um impacto antecipado de mudanças climáticas antropogênicas?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul John Beggs

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.O crescimento na incidência, prevalência e morbidade da asma durante as recentes décadas representa importante desafio para a saúde pública. Pólen é um importante desencadeador de alguns tipos de asma e tanto a sua quantidade como as especificidades das estações em que eles mais se disseminam dependem de variáveis climáticas e meteorológicas. No mesmo período em que se observa o incremento na incidência da asma houve considerável crescimento de concentração de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera e aumento da média de temperatura da superfície da terra. Nossa hipótese é a de que as mudanças antropogênicas do clima constituem um fator plausível para o incremento da incidência da asma. Maiores concentrações de dióxido de carbono e elevadas temperaturas podem aumentar a quantidade de pólen e induzir o aumento de variações climáticas que facilitam sua dispersão. Alergias a pólen podem aumentar

  8. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  9. Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706

  10. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  11. Personalized Hydration Strategy Attenuates the Rise in Heart Rate and in Skin Temperature Without Altering Cycling Capacity in the Heat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo-Marins, Denise; Souza-Silva, Ana Angélica; da Silva-Santos, Gabriel Lucas Leite; Freire-Júnior, Francisco de Assis; Lee, Jason Kai Wei; Laitano, Orlando

    2018-01-01

    The optimal hydration plan [i.e., drink to thirst, ad libitum (ADL), or personalized plan] to be adopted during exercise in recreational athletes has recently been a matter of debate and, due to conflicting results, consensus does not exist. In the present investigation, we tested whether a personalized hydration strategy based on sweat rate would affect cardiovascular and thermoregulatory responses and exercise capacity in the heat. Eleven recreational male cyclists underwent two familiarization cycling sessions in the heat (34°C, 40% RH) where sweat rate was also determined. A fan was used to enhance sweat evaporation. Participants then performed three randomized time-to-exhaustion (TTE) trials in the heat with different hydration strategies: personalized volume (PVO), where water was consumed, based on individual sweat rate, every 10 min; ADL, where free access to water was allowed; and a control (CON) trial with no fluids. Blood osmolality and urine-specific gravity were measured before each trial. Heart rate (HR), rectal, and skin temperatures were monitored throughout trials. Time to exhaustion at 70% of maximal workload was used to define exercise capacity in the heat, which was similar in all trials ( p  = 0.801). Body mass decreased after ADL ( p  = 0.008) and CON ( p  skin temperature during PVO trial in comparison with CON (2.1 ± 0.6 vs. 2.9 ± 0.5°C, p  = 0.0038). HR was lower toward the end of TTE in PVO (162 ± 8 bpm) in comparison with ADL (168 ± 12 bpm) and CON (167 ± 10 bpm), p  hydration strategy can reduce HR during a moderate to high intensity exercise session in the heat and halt the increase in skin temperature. Despite these advantages, cycling capacity in the heat remained unchanged.

  12. The Rise of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahigh-Aghsan, Ali

    Iran is viewed as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East...

  13. The Rise of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahigh-Aghsan, Ali; Jakobsen, Peter Viggo

    2010-01-01

    Iran is viewed as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle East...

  14. Effect of adverse environmental conditions and protective clothing on temperature rise in a human body exposed to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephen M; McIntosh, Robert L; Iskra, Steve; Lajevardipour, Alireza; Wood, Andrew W

    2017-07-01

    This study considers the computationally determined thermal profile of a finely discretized, heterogeneous human body model, simulating a radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) worker wearing protective clothing subject to RF-EMF exposure, and subject to various environmental conditions including high ambient temperature and high humidity, with full thermoregulatory mechanisms in place. How the human body responds in various scenarios was investigated, and the information was used to consider safety limits in current international RF-EMF safety guidelines and standards. It was found that different environmental conditions had minimal impact on the magnitude of the thermal response due to RF-EMF exposure, and that the current safety factor of 10 applied in international RF-EMF safety guidelines and standards for RF-EMF workers is generally conservative, though it is only narrowly so when workers are subjected to the most adverse environmental conditions. Bioelectromagnetics. 38:356-363, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  16. Antagonistic Effects of Ocean Acidification and Rising Sea Surface Temperature on the Dissolution of Coral Reef Carbonate Sediments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Trnovsky

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Increasing atmospheric CO2 is raising sea surface temperature (SST and increasing seawater CO2 concentrations, resulting in a lower oceanic pH (ocean acidification; OA, which is expected to reduce the accretion of coral reef ecosystems. Although sediments comprise most of the calcium carbonate (CaCO3 within coral reefs, no in situ studies have looked at the combined effects of increased SST and OA on the dissolution of coral reef CaCO3 sediments. In situ benthic chamber incubations were used to measure dissolution rates in permeable CaCO3 sands under future OA and SST scenarios in a coral reef lagoon on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (Heron Island. End of century (2100 simulations (temperature +2.7°C and pH -0.3 shifted carbonate sediments from net precipitating to net dissolving. Warming increased the rate of benthic respiration (R by 29% per 1°C and lowered the ratio of productivity to respiration (P/R; ΔP/R = -0.23, which increased the rate of CaCO3 sediment dissolution (average net increase of 18.9 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 for business as usual scenarios. This is most likely due to the influence of warming on benthic P/R which, in turn, was an important control on sediment dissolution through the respiratory production of CO2. The effect of increasing CO2 on CaCO3 sediment dissolution (average net increase of 6.5 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 for business as usual scenarios was significantly less than the effect of warming. However, the combined effect of increasing both SST and pCO2 on CaCO3 sediment dissolution was non-additive (average net increase of 5.6 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 due to the different responses of the benthic community. This study highlights that benthic biogeochemical processes such as metabolism and associated CaCO3 sediment dissolution respond rapidly to changes in SST and OA, and that the response to multiple environmental changes are not necessarily additive.

  17. Active (air-cooled) vs. passive (phase change material) thermal management of high power lithium-ion packs: Limitation of temperature rise and uniformity of temperature distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabbah, Rami; Kizilel, R.; Selman, J.R.; Al-Hallaj, S. [Center for Electrochemical Science and Engineering, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, 10 W. 33rd Street, Chicago, IL 60616 (United States)

    2008-08-01

    The effectiveness of passive cooling by phase change materials (PCM) is compared with that of active (forced air) cooling. Numerical simulations were performed at different discharge rates, operating temperatures and ambient temperatures of a compact Li-ion battery pack suitable for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) propulsion. The results were also compared with experimental results. The PCM cooling mode uses a micro-composite graphite-PCM matrix surrounding the array of cells, while the active cooling mode uses air blown through the gaps between the cells in the same array. The results show that at stressful conditions, i.e. at high discharge rates and at high operating or ambient temperatures (for example 40-45 C), air-cooling is not a proper thermal management system to keep the temperature of the cell in the desirable operating range without expending significant fan power. On the other hand, the passive cooling system is able to meet the operating range requirements under these same stressful conditions without the need for additional fan power. (author)

  18. Active (air-cooled) vs. passive (phase change material) thermal management of high power lithium-ion packs: Limitation of temperature rise and uniformity of temperature distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbah, Rami; Kizilel, R.; Selman, J. R.; Al-Hallaj, S.

    The effectiveness of passive cooling by phase change materials (PCM) is compared with that of active (forced air) cooling. Numerical simulations were performed at different discharge rates, operating temperatures and ambient temperatures of a compact Li-ion battery pack suitable for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) propulsion. The results were also compared with experimental results. The PCM cooling mode uses a micro-composite graphite-PCM matrix surrounding the array of cells, while the active cooling mode uses air blown through the gaps between the cells in the same array. The results show that at stressful conditions, i.e. at high discharge rates and at high operating or ambient temperatures (for example 40-45 °C), air-cooling is not a proper thermal management system to keep the temperature of the cell in the desirable operating range without expending significant fan power. On the other hand, the passive cooling system is able to meet the operating range requirements under these same stressful conditions without the need for additional fan power.

  19. GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Comiso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  20. Experimental investigation of temperature rise in bone drilling with cooling: A comparison between modes of without cooling, internal gas cooling, and external liquid cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakouri, Ehsan; Haghighi Hassanalideh, Hossein; Gholampour, Seifollah

    2018-01-01

    Bone fracture occurs due to accident, aging, and disease. For the treatment of bone fractures, it is essential that the bones are kept fixed in the right place. In complex fractures, internal fixation or external methods are used to fix the fracture position. In order to immobilize the fracture position and connect the holder equipment to it, bone drilling is required. During the drilling of the bone, the required forces to chip formation could cause an increase in the temperature. If the resulting temperature increases to 47 °C, it causes thermal necrosis of the bone. Thermal necrosis decreases bone strength in the hole and, subsequently, due to incomplete immobilization of bone, fracture repair is not performed correctly. In this study, attempts have been made to compare local temperature increases in different processes of bone drilling. This comparison has been done between drilling without cooling, drilling with gas cooling, and liquid cooling on bovine femur. Drilling tests with gas coolant using direct injection of CO 2 and N 2 gases were carried out by internal coolant drill bit. The results showed that with the use of gas coolant, the elevation of temperature has limited to 6 °C and the thermal necrosis is prevented. Maximum temperature rise reached in drilling without cooling was 56 °C, using gas and liquid coolant, a maximum temperature elevation of 43 °C and 42 °C have been obtained, respectively. This resulted in decreased possibility of thermal necrosis of bone in drilling with gas and liquid cooling. However, the results showed that the values obtained with the drilling method with direct gas cooling are independent of the rotational speed of drill.

  1. Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...

  2. Rising equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burr, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    This article reports on the results of a financial rankings survey of the independent energy industry indicating that lenders and investors provided more than five billion dollars in capital for new, private power projects during the first six months of 1992. The topics of the article include rising equity requirements, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, project finance investors, revenue bonds, project finance lenders for new projects, project finance lenders for restructurings, and project finance advisors

  3. Quality-controlled sea surface temperature, salinity and other measurements from the NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database (NCEI-TSG)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains global in-situ sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS) and other measurements from the NOAA NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database...

  4. Influence of refreshment/activation cycles and temperature rise on the reaction rate of sodium hypochlorite with bovine dentine during ultrasonic activated irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, R G; Verhaagen, B; Wesselink, P R; Versluis, M; van der Sluis, L W M

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of multiple refreshment/activation cycles and temperature on the reaction rate of sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) with bovine dentine during ultrasonic activated irrigation (UAI) under laboratory conditions. The root canal walls of 24 standardized root canals in bovine incisors were exposed to a standardized volume of NaOCl at different temperatures (24 °C and 38 °C) and exposure times (20, 60 and 180 s). The irrigant was refreshed and ultrasonically activated four times for 20 s followed by a 40 s rest interval, with no refreshment and no activation as the controls. The reaction rate was determined by measuring the amount of active chlorine in the NaOCl solution before and after being exposed to dentine during the specific experimental conditions. Calorimetry was used to measure the electrical-to-sonochemical conversion efficiency during ultrasonic activation. Refreshment, activation and exposure time all increased the reaction rate of NaOCl (P reaction rate of NaOCl (P > 0.125). The reaction rate of NaOCl with dentine is enhanced by refreshment, ultrasonic activation and exposure time. Temperature rise of irrigant during ultrasonic activation was not sufficient to alter the reaction rate. © 2013 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 4 (2012), s. 1095-1107 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * polar vortex * climate indices * global temperature Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2012

  6. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

    2017-12-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.

  7. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2018-01-01

    Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

  8. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  9. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  10. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  11. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  12. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  14. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  15. GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  16. The relationship of temperature rise to specific absorption rate and current in the human leg for exposure to electromagnetic radiation in the high frequency band

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wainwright, P R

    2003-01-01

    Of the biological effects of human exposure to radiofrequency and microwave radiation, the best-established are those due to elevation of tissue temperature. To prevent harmful levels of heating, restrictions have been proposed on the specific absorption rate (SAR). However, the relationship between SAR and temperature rise is not an invariant, since not only the heat capacity but also the efficiency of heat dissipation varies between different tissues and exposure scenarios. For small enough SAR, the relationship is linear and may be characterized by a 'heating factor'. Under whole-body irradiation the SAR may be particularly high in the ankles due to the concentration of current flowing through a relatively small cross-sectional area. In a previous paper, the author has presented calculations of the SAR distribution in a human leg in the high frequency (HF) band. In this paper, the heating factor for this situation is derived using a finite element approximation of the Pennes bio-heat equation. The sensitivity of the results to different blood perfusion rates is investigated, and a simple local thermoregulatory model is applied. Both time-dependent and steady-state solutions are considered. Results confirm the appropriateness of the ICNIRP reference level of 100 mA on current through the leg, but suggest that at higher currents significant thermoregulatory adjustments to muscle blood flow will occur

  17. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  18. Detection of temperature rise at 4.2K by using a dual-core optical fiber-an optical method to detect a quench of a superconducting magnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsukamoto, O.; Kokubun, Y.; Toyama, T.

    1986-01-01

    We performed an experiment to detect a temperature rise at cryogenic temperature using a dual-core optical fiber. This fiber has two single-mode optical cores in one fiber. We demonstrated that a temperature rise of 4 K was detectable at 4.2 K. The sensitivity of this method can be improved using a longer fiber. This method may be applicable as a quench detector for superconducting magnets. A quench detector using this optical method is immune from electromagnetic noise, free from troubles caused by break-down of electrical insulator, and has many advantages over a conventional quench detector measuring voltages of a magnet

  19. Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, K.P.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Owen, T.W.; Elvidge, C.D.

    2002-01-01

    This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally, stations classified as rural averaged 0.19??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Mediating water temperature increases due to livestock and global change in high elevation meadow streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastien Nussle; Kathleen R. Matthews; Stephanie M. Carlson

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout...

  1. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  2. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  3. NEOTEC: Negative-CO2-Emissions Marine Energy With Direct Mitigation of Global Warming, Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, G. H.; Baird, J.; Noland, G.

    2016-12-01

    The vertical thermal energy potential in the ocean is a massive renewable energy resource that is growing due to anthropogenic warming of the surface and near-surface ocean. The conversion of this thermal energy to useful forms via Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) has been demonstrated over the past century, albeit at small scales. Because OTEC removes heat from the surface ocean, this could help directly counter ongoing, deleterious ocean/atmosphere warming. The only other climate intervention that could do this is solar radiation "geoengineering". Conventional OTEC requires energy intensive, vertical movement of seawater resulting in ocean and atmospheric chemistry alteration, but this can be avoided via more energy efficient, vertical closed-cycle heating and cooling of working fluid like CO2 or NH3. An energy carrier such as H2 is required to transport energy optimally extracted far offshore, and methods of electrochemically generating H2 while also consuming CO2 and converting it to ocean alkalinity have been demonstrated. The addition of such alkalinity to the ocean would provide vast, stable, carbon storage, while also helping chemically counter the effects of ocean acidification. The process might currently be profitable given the >$100/tonne CO2 credit offered by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels like H2. Negative-Emissions OTEC, NEOTEC, thus can potentially provide constant, cost effective, high capacity, negative-emissions energy while: a) reducing surface ocean heat load, b) reducing thermal ocean expansion and sea-level rise, c) utilizing a very large, natural marine carbon storage reservoir, and d) helping mitigate ocean acidification. The technology also avoids the biophysical and land use limitations posed by negative emissions methods that rely on terrestrial biology, such as afforestation and BECCS. NEOTEC and other marine-based, renewable energy and CO2 removal approaches could therefore greatly increase the

  4. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Temperature rise and microplastics interact with the toxicity of the antibiotic cefalexin to juveniles of the common goby (Pomatoschistus microps): Post-exposure predatory behaviour, acetylcholinesterase activity and lipid peroxidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonte, Elsa; Ferreira, Pedro; Guilhermino, Lúcia

    2016-11-01

    The goal of this study was to investigate the toxicity of cefalexin to Pomatoschistus microps juveniles in relation to the presence of microplastics in the water and temperature rise. After acclimatization, groups of wild juveniles were exposed for 96h to artificial salt water (control), microplastics alone (0.184mg/l), cefalexin alone (1.3-10mg/l) and in mixture with microplastics (cefalexin: 1.3-10mg/l; microplastics: 0.184mg/l) at 20 and 25°C. Effect criteria were mortality, post-exposure predatory performance (PEPP), acetylcholinesterase activity (AChE) and lipid peroxidation levels (LPO). At 20°C, concentrations of cefalexin alone≥5mg/l significantly reduced PEPP (up to 56%; 96h-EC 50 =8.4mg/l), indicating toxicity of the antibiotic to juveniles after short-term exposure to water concentrations in the low ppm range. At 20°C, fish exposed to microplastics alone did not have significant differences in any of the parameters tested relative to the control group but tended to have an inhibition of the PEPP (23%) and AChE (21%); at 25°C, microplastics alone caused mortality (33%) and PEPP inhibition (28%). Thus, microplastics are toxic to P. microps juveniles. At 20°C, under simultaneous exposure to cefalexin and microplastics, the PEPP was significantly reduced (at cefalexin concentrations≥1.25mg/l). Moreover, at 25°C, the toxicity curves of cefalexin (PEPP based), alone and in mixture with microplastics, were significantly different (pmicroplastics in the water influenced the toxicity of cefalexin. The rise of water temperature (from 20°C to 25°C), increased the microplastics-induced mortality (from 8 to 33%), and the inhibitory effects of cefalexin on the PEPP (up to 70%). Significant differences (pmicroplastics and of cefalexin, alone and in mixture with microplastics, to P. microps juveniles. These findings raise concern on the long-term exposure of wild populations to complex mixtures of pollutants, likely decreasing their fitness, and highlight

  6. Hiatus in global warming - example of water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge (Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ducić Vladan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007

  7. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  8. Global weak solutions for coupled transport processes in concrete walls at high temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Beneš, Michal; Štefan, Radek

    2012-01-01

    We consider an initial-boundary value problem for a fully nonlinear coupled parabolic system with nonlinear boundary conditions modelling hygro-thermal behavior of concrete at high temperatures. We prove a global existence of a weak solution to this system on an arbitrary time interval. The main result is proved by an approximation procedure. This consists in proving the existence of solutions to mollified problems using the Leray-Schauder theorem, for which a priori estimates are obtained. T...

  9. Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

    2016-12-01

    The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

  10. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-04

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

  11. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

    2018-04-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

  12. Changing Ocean, Changing Economics: Impact of Rising Temperatures on the American Lobster Landings and on the US-Canada Lobster Economics in the Emerging Chinese Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, C. H. J.

    2016-02-01

    Record high temperatures in 2012 pushed the start date of the Maine lobster fishing season three weeks earlier than normal. High landings during a compressed time period more than doubled the volume experienced in June and July. As supply outpaced demand, an average 40% decrease in ex-vessel price significantly reduced fishermen's profitability. This study examined how the timing and location of lobster landings is affected by ocean temperatures, number of trips, distance fished from shore, price, and seasonality. Weekly lobster landings and the number of fishing trips in eastern, central, and western Maine from 2008 to 2014 were combined with NERACOOS buoy temperatures to model the change in productivity. The model shows warming leads to significant increases in landings. We also used monthly landings, prices, and trade of live and processed lobster between the U.S. and Canada from 1990 to 2014 to specify a system of equations that captures how both markets are integrated and how they respond to changing market conditions. The model shows that an increase in landings in both areas leads to an increase in lobster trade and then to an increase in US imports of frozen lobster meat. Furthermore, lobster exports to the emerging Chinese market started to expand after 2012 and grew to account for 21% and 11% of the exports value from U.S. and Canada, respectively. From 2010 to 2014, a sub-system model is specified to address how increasing demand in the Chinese market for hard-shell lobster could create incentives to delay production and increase the supply of hard-shell live lobster. The full model was then used to explore ways in which this coastal social-ecological system can adapt to increasing ocean temperature and how the integrated global market might alter the economic implications of the next ocean heatwave.

  13. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  14. Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

    1984-08-16

    Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.

  15. An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

    1991-10-01

    This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.

  16. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  17. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

  18. Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

    2009-01-01

    Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

  19. Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics

    2001-07-01

    The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  20. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  1. On the influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varonov, Albert; Shopov, Yavor

    2014-01-01

    Using statistical analysis, correlation between the variations of the total solar irradiance and of the annual-mean land temperatures was found. An unknown time lag between both data sets was expected to be present due to the complexity of the Earth’s climate system leading to a delayed response to changes in influencing factors. We found the best correlation with coefficient over 90% for a 14-year shift of the annual mean land temperature record ahead with data until 1970, while the same comparison with data until 2006 yields 61% correlation. These results show substantially higher influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperatures until 1970. The decline of this influence during the last 40 years could be attributed to the increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Key words: total solar irradiance, solar variations, solar forcing, climate change

  2. The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jackson Davis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature

  3. Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

  4. Temperature differences within the detector of the Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, compared to global radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjeldstad, Berit; Grandum, Oddbjorn

    1993-11-01

    The Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, has no temperature compensation, and the effect of temperature on the instrument response has been investigated and discussed in several reports. It is recommended to control the temperature of the detector or at least measure it. The temperature sensor is recommended to be positioned within the detector unit. We have measured the temperature at three different positions in the detector: At the edge of the green filter where the phosphor layer is placed; at the glass tube covering the cathode; and, finally, the air temperature inside the instrument. These measurements have been performed outdoors since July 1991, with corresponding measurements of the global and direct solar radiation. There was no difference between the temperature of the glasstube covering the cathode and the air inside the instrument, at any radiation level. However, there was a difference between the green filter and the two others. The difference is linearly dependent on the amount of global radiation. The temperature difference, (Delta) T (temperature between the green filter and the air inside the sensor), increased 0.8 degree(s)C when the global irradiation increased by 100 W/m2. At maximum global radiation in Trondheim (latitude 63.4 degree(s)N) (Delta) T was approximately 5 - 6 K when the global radiation was about 700 W/m2. This was valid for temperatures between 7 degree(s)C and 30 degree(s)C. Only clear days were evaluated.

  5. Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

    2018-06-01

    Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.

  6. The Search for Eight Glacial Cycles of Deep-Water Temperatures and Global ice Volume From the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, P.; Elderfield, H.; Greaves, M.; McCave, N.

    2007-12-01

    It has been recently suggested "a substantial portion of the marine 100-ky cycle that has been object of so much attention over the past quarter of a century is, in reality, a deep-water temperature signal and not an ice volume signal" (Shackleton, 2000). There are currently few records available of deep-water temperature variations during the Pleistocene and most of our understanding is inferred from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of benthic foraminifera from deep-sea sediments. However, variations in benthic δ18O reflect some combination of local to regional changes in water mass properties (largely deep- water temperature) as well as global changes in seawater δ18O (δ18Osw) resulting from the growth and decay of continental ice. Recent studies suggest that benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca may be useful in reconstructing deep-water temperature changes, but the application of this method to benthic species has been hampered by a number of unresolved issues, such as uncertainties related to the calibration for benthic Mg at the coldest temperatures. Here we present deep-sea Mg/Ca and δ18O records for the past eight glacial cycles in benthic foraminiferal ( Uvigerina spp.) calcite from a marine sediment core recovered in the mid Southern latitudes. Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 was retrieved from Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand in the Southwest Pacific Ocean (3290 m water depth). This site lies under the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) that flows into the Pacific Ocean, and is responsible for most of the deep water in that ocean; DWBC strength is directly related to processes occurring around Antarctica. Temperatures derived via pore fluid modeling of the last glacial maximum are available from Site 1123 and represent an important tool to constrain deep-water temperatures estimates using Mg/Ca. In selected time slices, we measured B/Ca ratios in Uvigerina in order to gain information on the deep-water carbonate saturation state and have data of Mg

  7. The Rise of Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Peter Viggo; Rahigh-Aghsan, Ali

    2010-01-01

    Iran is viewed by many as a rising power that poses an increasing threat to regional and even global security. This view is wrong for three reasons. Iran's hard and soft power is exaggerated by most accounts; it is too limited to allow the Iranians to dominate the Persian Gulf let alone the Middle...... East, and its brand of Shi‘ism has very limited appeal outside of Iran. Second, growing internal political and economic instability will seriously limit Iran's bid for regional dominance. Third, the failure to stop the Iranian nuclear program has led analysts to underestimate the ability of the other...... regional powers and the West to balance Iran and contain its influence, even if it acquires nuclear weapons. If these limitations on Iranian power are taken into account the rise seems destined to be a short one....

  8. Van ‘t Hoff global analyses of variable temperature isothermal titration calorimetry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freiburger, Lee A.; Auclair, Karine; Mittermaier, Anthony K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ▶ We developed a global fitting strategy for ITC data collected at multiple temperatures. ▶ This method does not require prior knowledge of the binding mechanism. ▶ Monte Carlo simulations show that the approach improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters. ▶ The method is used to study coupled folding/binding in aminoglycoside 6′-N-acetyltransferase-Ii. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) can provide detailed information on the thermodynamics of biomolecular interactions in the form of equilibrium constants, K A , and enthalpy changes, ΔH A . A powerful application of this technique involves analyzing the temperature dependences of ITC-derived K A and ΔH A values to gain insight into thermodynamic linkage between binding and additional equilibria, such as protein folding. We recently developed a general method for global analysis of variable temperature ITC data that significantly improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters and requires no prior knowledge of the coupled equilibria. Here we report detailed validation of this method using Monte Carlo simulations and an application to study coupled folding and binding in an aminoglycoside acetyltransferase enzyme.

  9. Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

    2018-03-01

    A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

  10. Genetic Diversity of Globally Dispersed Lacustrine Group I Haptophytes: Implications for Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, N.; Longo, W. M.; Amaral-Zettler, L. A.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    There are significant uncertainties surrounding the forcings that drive terrestrial temperature changes on local and regional scales. Quantitative temperature reconstructions from terrestrial sites, such as lakes, help to unravel the fundamental processes that drive changes in temperature on different temporal and spatial scales. Recent studies at Brown University show that distinct alkenones, long chain ketones produced by haptophytes, are found in many freshwater, alkaline lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, highlighting these systems as targets for quantitative continental temperature reconstructions. These freshwater alkenones are produced by the Group I haptophyte phylotype and are characterized by a distinct signature: the presence of isomeric tri-unsaturated ketones and absence of alkenoates. There are currently no cultured representatives of the "Group I" haptophytes, hence they are only known based on their rRNA gene signatures. Here we present robust evidence that Northern Hemispheric freshwater, alkaline lakes with the characteristic "Group I" alkenone signature all host the same clade of Isochrysidales haptophytes. We employed next generation DNA amplicon sequencing to target haptophyte specific hypervariable regions of the large and small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene from 13 different lakes from three continents (i.e., North America, Europe, and Asia). Combined with previously published sequences, our genetic data show that the Group I haptophyte is genetically diverse on a regional and global scale, and even within the same lake. We present two case studies from a suite of five lakes in Alaska and three in Iceland to assess the impact of various environmental factors affecting Group I diversity and alkenone production. Despite the genetic diversity in this group, the overall ketone signature is conserved. Based on global surface sediment samples and in situ Alaskan lake calibrations, alkenones produced by different operational taxonomic units of the Group

  11. A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhoff, Jacob T.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.

  12. Global characteristics of zonal flows generated by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyato, Naoaki; Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Li, Jiquan

    2004-08-01

    Global structure of zonal flows driven by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas is investigated using a global electromagnetic Landau fluid code. Characteristics of the coupled system of the zonal flows and the turbulence change with the safety factor q. In a low q region stationary zonal flows are excited and suppress the turbulence effectively. Coupling between zonal flows and poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations via a geodesic curvature makes the zonal flows oscillatory in a high q region. Also we identify energy transfer from the zonal flows to the turbulence via the poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations in the high q region. Therefore in the high q region the zonal flows cannot quench the turbulent transport completely. (author)

  13. Microturbogas cogeneration systems for distributed generation: Effects of ambient temperature on global performance and components’ behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caresana, F.; Pelagalli, L.; Comodi, G.; Renzi, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Electrical power reduces with temperature, heat recovery remains almost constant. • Thermal-to-electrical power ratio increases with ambient temperature. • Not only the density of sucked air decreases but also its volumetric flow. • Putting a limit to shaft speed causes TIT to decrease with ambient temperature. • Power reduction with ambient temperature more than doubles that of great GTs. - Abstract: Microturbines (MGTs) are a relatively new technology that is currently attracting a lot of interest in the distributed generation market. Particularly interesting is their use as backup source for integrating photovoltaic panels or/and wind turbines in hybrid systems. In this case the sensitivity to ambient conditions of the MGT adds to that of the renewables and the knowledge of the effects of ambient conditions on its performance becomes a key subject both for the sizing of the energy system and for its optimal dynamic control. Although the dependence of medium/large gas turbines performance on atmospheric conditions is well known and documented in literature, there are very limited reports available on MGTs and they regard only global parameters. The paper aims at filling this lack of information by analyzing the ambient temperature effect on the global performance of an MGT in cogeneration arrangement and by entering in detail into its machines’ behavior. A simulation code, tuned on experimental data, is used for this purpose. Starting from the nominal ISO conditions, electrical power output is shown to decrease with ambient temperature at a rate of about 1.22%/°C, due to a reduction of both air density and volumetric flow. Meanwhile, thermal to electrical power ratio increases at a rate of about 1.30%/°C. As temperature increases compressor delivers less air at a lower pressure, and the turbine expansion ratio and mass flow reduce accordingly. With the in-use control system the turbine inlet temperature reduces at a rate of 0.07%/

  14. Past surface temperature changes as derived from continental temperature logs - Canadian and some global examples of application of a new tool in climate change studies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 47, - (2004), s. 113-174 ISSN 0065-2687 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : well temperature * global warming * surface temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.667, year: 2004

  15. Global analysis of the temperature and flow fields in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Grande, I.; Rivas, D.; de Pablo, V.

    The temperature field in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces will be analyzed, using a global model where the temperature fields in the sample, the furnace and the insulation are coupled; the input thermal data is the electric power supplied to the heaters. The radiation heat exchange between the sample and the furnace is formulated analytically, taking into account specular reflections at the sample; for the solid sample the reflectance is both diffuse and specular, and for the melt it is mostly specular. This behavior is modeled through the exchange view factors, which depend on whether the sample is solid or liquid, and, therefore, they are not known a priori. The effect of this specular behavior in the temperature field will be analyzed, by comparing with the case of diffuse samples. A parameter of great importance is the thermal conductivity of the insulation material; it will be shown that the temperature field depends strongly on it. A careful characterization of the insulation is therefore necessary, here it will be done with the aid of experimental results, which will also serve to validate the model. The heating process in the floating-zone technique in microgravity conditions will be simulated; parameters like the Marangoni number or the temperature gradient at the melt-crystal interface will be estimated. Application to the case of compound samples (graphite-silicon-graphite) will be made; the temperature distribution in the silicon part will be studied, especially the temperature difference between the two graphite rods that hold the silicon, since it drives the thermocapillary flow in the melt. This flow will be studied, after coupling the previous model with the convective effects. The possibility of suppresing this flow by the controlled vibration of the graphite rods will be also analyzed. Numerical results show that the thermocapillary flow can indeed be counterbalanced quite effectively.

  16. Rising Mean Annual Temperature Increases Carbon Flux and Alters Partitioning, but Does Not Change Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Hawaiian Tropical Montane Wet Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litton, C. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Selmants, P.

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) storage exceeds that in the atmosphere by a factor of four, and represents a dynamic balance among C input, allocation, and loss. This balance is likely being altered by climate change, but the response of terrestrial C cycling to warming remains poorly quantified, particularly in tropical forests which play a disproportionately large role in the global C cycle. Over the past five years, we have quantified above- and belowground C pools and fluxes in nine permanent plots spanning a 5.2°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (13-18.2°C) in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forest. This elevation gradient is unique in that substrate type and age, soil type, soil water balance, canopy vegetation, and disturbance history are constant, allowing us to isolate the impact of long-term, whole ecosystem warming on C input, allocation, loss and storage. Across the gradient, soil respiration, litterfall, litter decomposition, total belowground C flux, aboveground net primary productivity, and estimates of gross primary production (GPP) all increase linearly and positively with MAT. Carbon partitioning is dynamic, shifting from below- to aboveground with warming, likely in response to a warming-induced increase in the cycling and availability of soil nutrients. In contrast to observed patterns in C flux, live biomass C, soil C, and total ecosystem C pools remained remarkably constant with MAT. There was also no difference in soil bacterial taxon richness, phylogenetic diversity, or community composition with MAT. Taken together these results indicate that in tropical montane wet forests, increased temperatures in the absence of water limitation or disturbance will accelerate C cycling, will not alter ecosystem C storage, and will shift the products of photosynthesis from below- to aboveground. These results agree with an increasing number of studies, and collectively provide a unique insight into anticipated warming-induced changes in tropical

  17. A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukicevic, Tomislava; Schimel, David

    2001-01-01

    The observed interannual variability of atmospheric CO 2 reflects short-term variability in sources and sinks of CO 2 . Analyses using 13 C and O 2 suggest that much of the observed interannual variability is due to changes in terrestrial CO 2 exchange. First principles, empirical correlations and process models suggest a link between climate variation and net ecosystem exchange, but the scaling of ecological process studies to the globe is notoriously difficult. We sought to identify a component of global CO 2 exchange that varied coherently with land temperature anomalies using an inverse modeling approach. We developed a family of simplified spatially aggregated ecosystem models (designated K-model versions) consisting of five compartments: atmospheric CO 2 , live vegetation, litter, and two soil pools that differ in turnover times. The pools represent cumulative differences from mean storage due to temperature variability and can thus have positive or negative values. Uptake and respiration of CO 2 are assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. One model version includes a simple representation of the nitrogen cycle in which changes in the litter and soil carbon pools result in stoichiometric release of plant-available nitrogen, the other omits the nitrogen feedback. The model parameters were estimated by inversion of the model against global temperature and CO 2 anomaly data using the variational method. We found that the temperature sensitivity of carbon uptake (NPP) was less than that of respiration in all model versions. Analyses of model and data also showed that temperature anomalies trigger ecosystem changes on multiple, lagged time-scales. Other recent studies have suggested a more active land biosphere at Northern latitudes in response to warming and longer growing seasons. Our results indicate that warming should increase NPP, consistent with this theory, but that respiration should increase more than NPP, leading to decreased or negative NEP. A

  18. Moving to Google Cloud: Renovation of Global Borehole Temperature Database for Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Y.; Huang, S.

    2013-12-01

    Borehole temperature comprises an independent archive of information on climate change which is complementary to the instrumental and other proxy climate records. With support from the international geothermal community, a global database of borehole temperatures has been constructed for the specific purpose of the study on climate change. Although this database has become an important data source in climate research, there are certain limitations partially because the framework of the existing borehole temperature database was hand-coded some twenty years ago. A database renovation work is now underway to take the advantages of the contemporary online database technologies. The major intended improvements include 1) dynamically linking a borehole site to Google Earth to allow for inspection of site specific geographical information; 2) dynamically linking an original key reference of a given borehole site to Google Scholar to allow for a complete list of related publications; and 3) enabling site selection and data download based on country, coordinate range, and contributor. There appears to be a good match between the enhancement requirements for this database and the functionalities of the newly released Google Fusion Tables application. Google Fusion Tables is a cloud-based service for data management, integration, and visualization. This experimental application can consolidate related online resources such as Google Earth, Google Scholar, and Google Drive for sharing and enriching an online database. It is user friendly, allowing users to apply filters and to further explore the internet for additional information regarding the selected data. The users also have ways to map, to chart, and to calculate on the selected data, and to download just the subset needed. The figure below is a snapshot of the database currently under Google Fusion Tables renovation. We invite contribution and feedback from the geothermal and climate research community to make the

  19. Assimilation of global radar backscatter and radiometer brightness temperature observations to improve soil moisture and land evaporation estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N.E.C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R.H.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.

    2016-01-01

    Active radar backscatter (σ°) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model

  20. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

    2016-11-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Global equatorial sea-surface temperatures over the last 150,000 years: An update from foraminiferal elemental analysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.

    for the warmest waters. However, how the equatorial SST affects global climate, is still not clear. Long-term past seawater temperature records are required to understand the effect of temporal changes in equatorial SST on the global climate. Various techniques...

  2. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  3. What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.

  4. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  5. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  6. Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

    2014-09-23

    Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

  7. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  8. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  9. Calculation of SAR and temperature rise in a high-resolution vascularized model of the human eye and orbit when exposed to a dipole antenna at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flyckt, V M M; Raaymakers, B W; Kroeze, H; Lagendijk, J J W

    2007-01-01

    The eye is considered to be a critical organ when determining safety standards for radiofrequency radiation. With a detailed anatomy of the human eye and orbit inserted in a whole-head model, the specific absorption rates (SARs) and thermal effects were determined under exposure to a dipole antenna representing a mobile phone operating at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz with an output power of 1 W. The temperature rise was calculated by taking the blood flow into account either by the Pennes bioheat model or by including the discrete vasculature (DIVA). In addition, a simple spherical model using constant heat transfer coefficients was used. Peak SARs in the humour are 4.5, 7.7 and 8.4 W kg -1 for 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz respectively. Averaged over the whole eyeball, the SARs are 1.7, 2.5 and 2.2 W kg -1 . The maximum temperature rises in the eye due to the exposure are 0.22, 0.27 and 0.25 deg. C for exposure of 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz, respectively, calculated with DIVA. For the Pennes bioheat model, the temperature rises are slightly lower: 0.19, 0.24, 0.22 deg. C respectively. For the simple spherical model, the maximum temperature rises are 0.15, 0.22 and 0.20 deg. C. The peak temperature is located in the anterior part of the lens for 900 MHz and deeper in the eye for higher frequencies, and in the posterior part of the lens for 1500 MHz and close to the centre of the eyeball for 1800 MHz. For these RF safety applications, both DIVA and the Pennes bioheat model could be used to relate the SAR distributions to the resulting temperature distributions. Even though, for these artificial exposure conditions, the SAR values are not in compliance with safety guidelines, the maximum temperature rises in the eye are too small to give harmful effects. The temperature in the eye also remains below body core temperature

  10. Calculation of SAR and temperature rise in a high-resolution vascularized model of the human eye and orbit when exposed to a dipole antenna at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flyckt, V M M; Raaymakers, B W; Kroeze, H; Lagendijk, J J W [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2007-05-21

    The eye is considered to be a critical organ when determining safety standards for radiofrequency radiation. With a detailed anatomy of the human eye and orbit inserted in a whole-head model, the specific absorption rates (SARs) and thermal effects were determined under exposure to a dipole antenna representing a mobile phone operating at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz with an output power of 1 W. The temperature rise was calculated by taking the blood flow into account either by the Pennes bioheat model or by including the discrete vasculature (DIVA). In addition, a simple spherical model using constant heat transfer coefficients was used. Peak SARs in the humour are 4.5, 7.7 and 8.4 W kg{sup -1} for 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz respectively. Averaged over the whole eyeball, the SARs are 1.7, 2.5 and 2.2 W kg{sup -1}. The maximum temperature rises in the eye due to the exposure are 0.22, 0.27 and 0.25 deg. C for exposure of 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz, respectively, calculated with DIVA. For the Pennes bioheat model, the temperature rises are slightly lower: 0.19, 0.24, 0.22 deg. C respectively. For the simple spherical model, the maximum temperature rises are 0.15, 0.22 and 0.20 deg. C. The peak temperature is located in the anterior part of the lens for 900 MHz and deeper in the eye for higher frequencies, and in the posterior part of the lens for 1500 MHz and close to the centre of the eyeball for 1800 MHz. For these RF safety applications, both DIVA and the Pennes bioheat model could be used to relate the SAR distributions to the resulting temperature distributions. Even though, for these artificial exposure conditions, the SAR values are not in compliance with safety guidelines, the maximum temperature rises in the eye are too small to give harmful effects. The temperature in the eye also remains below body core temperature.

  11. Calculation of SAR and temperature rise in a high-resolution vascularized model of the human eye and orbit when exposed to a dipole antenna at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flyckt, V M M; Raaymakers, B W; Kroeze, H; Lagendijk, J J W

    2007-05-21

    The eye is considered to be a critical organ when determining safety standards for radiofrequency radiation. With a detailed anatomy of the human eye and orbit inserted in a whole-head model, the specific absorption rates (SARs) and thermal effects were determined under exposure to a dipole antenna representing a mobile phone operating at 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz with an output power of 1 W. The temperature rise was calculated by taking the blood flow into account either by the Pennes bioheat model or by including the discrete vasculature (DIVA). In addition, a simple spherical model using constant heat transfer coefficients was used. Peak SARs in the humour are 4.5, 7.7 and 8.4 W kg(-1) for 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz respectively. Averaged over the whole eyeball, the SARs are 1.7, 2.5 and 2.2 W kg(-1). The maximum temperature rises in the eye due to the exposure are 0.22, 0.27 and 0.25 degrees C for exposure of 900, 1500 and 1800 MHz, respectively, calculated with DIVA. For the Pennes bioheat model, the temperature rises are slightly lower: 0.19, 0.24, 0.22 degrees C respectively. For the simple spherical model, the maximum temperature rises are 0.15, 0.22 and 0.20 degrees C. The peak temperature is located in the anterior part of the lens for 900 MHz and deeper in the eye for higher frequencies, and in the posterior part of the lens for 1500 MHz and close to the centre of the eyeball for 1800 MHz. For these RF safety applications, both DIVA and the Pennes bioheat model could be used to relate the SAR distributions to the resulting temperature distributions. Even though, for these artificial exposure conditions, the SAR values are not in compliance with safety guidelines, the maximum temperature rises in the eye are too small to give harmful effects. The temperature in the eye also remains below body core temperature.

  12. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  14. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  15. AVHRR Pathfinder version 5.3 level 3 collated (L3C) global 4km sea surface temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.3 (PFV53) L3C Sea Surface Temperature data set is a collection of global, twice-daily (Day and Night) 4km sea surface temperature...

  16. A mathematical correlation between variations in solar radiation parameters. 2. Global radiation, air temperature and specific humidity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-06-01

    We derive from first principles, an equation which expresses global radiation as a function of specific humidity and air temperature at screen height. The practical validity of this equation is tested by using humidity, air temperature and global radiation data from Tanzania. It is shown that global radiation values calculated on the basis of the derived equation agree with measured radiation values to within ± 8% as long as the prevalent (horizontal) winds are either calm or light. It is noted that the equation is equally valid at times of strong horizontal winds provided that the temperature and humidity measuring site is sufficiently shielded from the winds. This implies that meteorological stations that are (for some unavoidable reasons) unable to stock pyranometers can still procure reasonable estimates of local global radiation as long as they can, at least, stock the relatively cheaper barometers and wet- and dry-bulb psychrometers. (author). 12 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs

  17. The correlation between the rise of the tumor temperature during the hyperthermia treatment and the tumor blood flow measured by dynamic CT and 15O gas-positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Hideyuki

    1993-01-01

    This study was designed to determine the correlation between the rise of tumor temperature during hyperthermia treatment and the blood flow of the tumors measured by dynamic CT (DCT) and 15 O gas-positron emission tomography. In this report, we observed 20 patients with malignant tumors which underwent hyperthermia treatment. In each case, the temperature of the tumor was monitored with a photofiber sensor. DCT's and 15 O gas-positron emission tomographies were applied before the hyperthermia treatment. During the DCT, the tumor blood flow of each tumor was estimated by analyzing the time-dependent activity curve after a bolus injection. During the 15 O gas-positron emission tomography, the tumor blood flow was estimated by the C 15 O 2 -steady-state method. The value of the tumor blood flow estimated by DCT were proportional to those calculated by the 15 O gas-positron emission tomography. These values were inversely proportional to the rise of the temperature of the tumors during hyperthermia treatment. Our results imply that DCT as well as the 15 O gas-positron emission tomography can be used for the prediction of the tumor temperature rise during the hyperthermia treatment. (author)

  18. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A; Haigh, Ivan D; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

    2018-05-13

    The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  19. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

    2018-05-01

    The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  20. A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

    2018-03-01

    A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer

  1. A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)

    2012-01-20

    The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.

  2. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012, have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007 to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI.

  4. Global Model of Time-Modulated Electronegative Discharges for Neutral Radical and Electron Temperature Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.

    2003-10-01

    Control and reduction of neutral radical flux/ion flux ratio and electron temperature Te is required for next generation etching in the microelectronics industry. We investigate time-modulated power for these purposes using a volume-averaged (global) oxygen discharge model, We consider pressures of 10-50 mTorr and plasma densities of 10^10-10^11 cm-3. In this regime, the discharge is found to be weakly electronegative. The modulation period and the duty ratio (on-time/period) are varied to determine the optimum conditions for reduction of FR= O-atom flux/ion flux and T_e. Two chambers with different height/diameter ratios (SMART Contract SM99-10051.

  5. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  6. AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.

    2001-02-01

    The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.

  7. Rise of a cold plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakuta, Michio

    1977-06-01

    The rise of smoke from the stacks of two research reactors in normal operation was measured by photogrametric method. The temperature of effluent gas is less than 20 0 C higher than that of the ambient air (heat emission of the order 10 4 cal s -1 ), and the efflux velocity divided by the wind speed is between 0.5 and 2.8 in all 16 smoke runs. The field data obtained within downwind distance of 150m are compared with those by plume rise formulas presently available. Considering the shape of bending-over plume, the Briggs' formula for 'jet' gives a reasonable explanation of the observed plume rise. (auth.)

  8. An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

  9. Effect of diode lasers with wavelength of 445 and 980 nm on a temperature rise when uncovering implants for second stage surgery: An ex-vivo study in pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matys, Jacek; Flieger, Rafał; Dominiak, Marzena

    2017-07-01

    Many surgical procedures in soft tissue are performed using diode lasers. Recently, a novel diode laser operating at 445 nm wavelength was introduced in dentistry. The aim of our study was to evaluate the time of surgery and an increase in temperature of titanium implants during its uncovering using 445 and 980 nm wavelengths. The research included 45 pig mandibles (n = 45). The specimens were randomly divided into 3 groups (n = 15) according to the laser irradiation mode and wavelength; G1 - 445 nm laser, power: 3 W, continuous wave (CW), distance: 2 mm, power density: 7460 W/cm2, fiber: 320 μm, noncontact mode; G2 - 445 nm laser (power: 2 W, CW, power density: 4970 W/cm2, fiber: 320 μm, contact mode; G3 (control) - 980 nm laser, power: 2.5 W, CW, power density: 15920 W/cm2, fiber: 200 μm, contact mode. The temperature was measured with a 2 K-type thermocouples (a P1 at collar and a P2 at mid height of the implant). The mean temperature rises measured by the P1 thermocouple were 16.9°C, 36.1°C and 21.6°C in the G1, G2 and G3 group, respectively. Significant differences in temperature rise were found between the G1 and G2 group (p = 0.0007) and the G2 and G3 group (p = 0.01). The mean temperature rises measured by the P2 thermocouple were 1.8°C, 1.4°C and 5.6°C in the G1, G2 and G3 group, respectively. Significant differences in temperature rise were found between the G1 and the G2 or G3 group (p = 0.0001). The significant differences among the study groups in average time necessary for uncovering the implants amounted to 69.7, 54.4 and 83.6 s, respectively (p diode laser in non-contact mode reduced the temperature rise of the implants. The additional pulse intervals during laser irradiation with wavelength of 445 nm when operating in contact mode are needed.

  10. Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

    2017-06-01

    The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

  11. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  12. Gyrokinetic global analysis of ion temperature gradient driven mode in reversed shear tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idomura, Y.; Tokuda, S.; Kishimoto, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A new toroidal gyrokinetic particle code has been developed to study the ion temperature gradient driven (ITG) turbulence in reactor relevant tokamak parameters. We use a new method based on a canonical Maxwellian distribution F CM (P φ , ε, μ), which is defined by three constants of motion in the axisymmetric toroidal system, the canonical angular momentum P φ , the energy ε, and the magnetic moment μ. A quasi-ballooning representation enables linear and nonlinear high-m,n global calculations with a good numerical convergence. Conservation properties are improved by using the optimized loading method. From comprehensive linear global analyses over a wide range of an unstable toroidal mode number spectrum (n=0∼100) in large tokamak parameters (a/ρ ti =320∼460), properties of the ITG modes in reversed shear tokamaks are discussed. In the nonlinear simulation, it is found that a new method based on F CM can simulate a zonal flow damping correctly, and spurious zonal flow oscillations, which are observed in a conventional method based on a local Maxwellian distribution F LM (ψ, ε, μ), do not appear in the nonlinear regime. (author)

  13. Global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brace, L.H.; Theis, R.F.; Hoegy, W.R.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamics Explorer-2 is permitting the first measurements of the global structure of the F-regions at very high levels of solar activity (S>200). Selected full orbits of Langmuir probe measurements of electron temperature, T/sub e/, and density, N/sub e/, are shown to illustrate this global structure and some of the ionospheric features that are the topic of other papers in this issue. The ionospheric thermal structure is of particular interest because T/sub e/ is a sensitive indicator of the coupling of magnetospheric energy into the upper atmosphere. A comparison of these heating effects with those observed at solar minimum shows that the magnetospheric sources are more important at solar maximum, as might have been expected. Heating at the cusp, the auroral oval and the plasma-pause is generally both greater and more variable. Electron cooling rate calculations employing low latitude measurements indicate that solar extreme ultraviolet heating of the F region at solar maximum is enhanced by a factor that is greater than the increase in solar flux. Some of this enhanced electron heating arises from the increase in electron heating efficiency at the higher N/sub e/ of solar maximum, but this appears insufficient to completely resolve the discrepancy

  14. A model–data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lohmann

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST in the models shows a high-latitude cooling and a low-latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 yr. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We test if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We explore whether consideration of different growing seasons and depth habitats of the planktonic organisms used for temperature reconstruction could lead to a better agreement of model results with proxy data on a regional scale. The extent to which temporal shifts in growing season or vertical shifts in depth habitat can reduce model–data misfits is determined. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model–data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modelled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behaviour of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Results indicate that modelled and reconstructed

  15. Framing Political Change: Can a Left Populism Disrupt the Rise of the Reactionary Right?; Comment on “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Labonté

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Solomon Benatar offers an important critique of the limited frame that sets the boundaries of much of what is referred to as ‘global health.’ In placing his comments within a criticism of increasing poverty (or certainly income and wealth inequalities and the decline in our environmental commons, he locates our health inequities within the pathology of our present global economy. In that respect it is a companion piece to an editorial I published around the same time. Both Benatar’s and my paralleling arguments take on a new urgency in the wake of the US presidential election. Although not a uniquely American event (the xenophobic right has been making inroads in many parts of the world, the degree of vitriol expressed by the President-elect of the world’s (still most powerful and militarized country is being used to further legitimate the policies of right-extremist parties in Europe while providing additional justification for the increasingly autocratic politics of leaders (elected or otherwise in many other of the world’s nations. To challenge right-populism’s rejection of the predatory inequalities that 4 years of (neo-liberal globalization have created demands strong and sustained left populism built, in part, on the ecocentric frame advocated by Benatar.

  16. Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

    2013-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2015-04-02

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  18. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  19. Prenatal temperature shocks reduce cooperation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duchoslav, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Climate change has not only led to a sustained rise in mean global temperature over the past decades, but also increased the frequency of extreme weather events. This paper explores the effect of temperature shocks in utero on later-life taste for cooperation. Using historical climate data combined

  20. Framing Political Change: Can a Left Populism Disrupt the Rise of the Reactionary Right? Comment on "Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labonté, Ronald

    2017-01-17

    Solomon Benatar offers an important critique of the limited frame that sets the boundaries of much of what is referred to as 'global health.' In placing his comments within a criticism of increasing poverty (or certainly income and wealth inequalities) and the decline in our environmental commons, he locates our health inequities within the pathology of our present global economy. In that respect it is a companion piece to an editorial I published around the same time. Both Benatar's and my paralleling arguments take on a new urgency in the wake of the US presidential election. Although not a uniquely American event (the xenophobic right has been making inroads in many parts of the world), the degree of vitriol expressed by the President-elect of the world's (still) most powerful and militarized country is being used to further legitimate the policies of right-extremist parties in Europe while providing additional justification for the increasingly autocratic politics of leaders (elected or otherwise) in many other of the world's nations. To challenge right-populism's rejection of the predatory inequalities that 4 years of (neo)-liberal globalization have created demands strong and sustained left populism built, in part, on the ecocentric frame advocated by Benatar. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  1. Reverse trends of TEX86 temperature in coastal areas of the East China Sea over the last 100 years: implication for global warming and regional circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Y.; Xing, L.; Zhang, T.

    2017-12-01

    To reconstruct and compare the SST changes in different regions of the ECS over the last 100 years, in this study, we analyzed iGDGTs compounds and TEX86 index in two sediment cores (DH5-1 and DH6-2) from the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS). GDGT-0 and GDGT-5 in the two cores account for 80% of iGDGTs, significantly more abundant than the other iGDGTs compounds. It is also found that iGDGTs are mainly derived from marine Thaumarchaeota. TEXH86 temperatures varied from 17 °C to 22 °C (average 19.4 °C), showing a gradual increase in Core DH5-1 near the Changjiang River Estuary, corresponding to global warming and temperature rise in the ECS over the last 100 years. However, in Core DH6-2 further away from the Changjiang River Estuary, TEXH86 temperatures gradually decreased over the last 80 years with a range of 15.3 °C-18.3 °C, which is attributed to the strengthened near-shore Kuroshio Branch Current transporting more subsurface cold water to the ECS coastal area. In future, more sites should be investigated to confirm the range of the coastal area where the decrease in SST is caused by upwelling subsurface water.

  2. Global embedding of D-dimensional black holes with a cosmological constant in Minkowskian spacetimes: Matching between Hawking temperature and Unruh temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Nuno Loureiro; Dias, Oscar J.C.; Lemos, Jose P.S.

    2004-01-01

    We study the matching between the Hawking temperature of a large class of static D-dimensional black holes and the Unruh temperature of the corresponding higher dimensional Rindler spacetime. In order to accomplish this task we find the global embedding of the D-dimensional black holes into a higher dimensional Minkowskian spacetime, called the global embedding Minkowskian spacetime procedure (GEMS procedure). These global embedding transformations are important on their own, since they provide a powerful tool that simplifies the study of black hole physics by working instead, but equivalently, in an accelerated Rindler frame in a flat background geometry. We discuss neutral and charged Tangherlini black holes with and without cosmological constant, and in the negative cosmological constant case, we consider the three allowed topologies for the horizons (spherical, cylindrical/toroidal, and hyperbolic)

  3. Climate Change in Alpine Regions - Regional Characteristics of a Global Phenomenon by the Example of Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Erich; Stary, Ulrike

    2017-04-01

    For nearly 50 years the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) has been engaged in research in the Alpine region recording measuring data at extreme sites. Data series of this duration provide already a good insight into the evolution of climate parameters. Extrapolations derived from it are suitable for comparison with results from climate change models or supplement them with regard to their informative value. This is useful because climate change models describe a simplified picture of reality based on the size of the data grid they use. Analysis of time series of two air temperature measuring stations in different torrent catchment areas indicate that 1) predictions of temperature rise for the Alpine region in Austria will have to be revised upwards, and 2) only looking at the data of seasons (or shorter time periods), reveals the real dramatic effect of climate change. Considering e.g. the annual average data of air temperature of the years 1969-2016 at the climate station "Fleissner" (altitude 1210m a.s.l; Upper Mölltal, Carinthia) a significant upward trend is visible. Using a linear smoothing function an increase of the average annual air temperature of about 2.2°C within 50 years emerges. The calculated temperature rise thus confirms the general fear of an increase of more than 2.0°C till the middle of the 21st century. Looking at the seasonal change of air temperature, significant positive trends are shown in all four seasons. But the level of the respective temperature increase varies considerably and indicates the highest increase in spring (+3.3°C), and the lowest one in autumn (+1.3°C, extrapolated for a time period of 50 years). The maximum increase of air temperature at the measuring station "Pumpenhaus" (altitude 980m a.s.l), which is situated in the "Karnische Alpen" in the south of Austria, is even stronger. From a time series of 28 years (with data recording starting in 1989) the maximum rise of temperature was 5.4°C detected for the

  4. Research on Ambient Temperature Change Law in Mine Refuge Chamber during Temperature Rise%升温期煤矿避难硐室内环境温度变化规律研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周方年

    2014-01-01

    针对煤矿避难硐室内人员避灾过程中人体和设备产热引起的热环境对人员避灾的影响,研究了在无降温措施情况下密闭避难硐室内的空气与围岩壁面的动态耦合传热规律。采用理论分析与试验验证的方法,得出室内避灾过程中的人体与设备产热量计算方法和硐室内空气升温规律。研究结果对避难硐室内的热湿环境控制具有一定的理论指导意义。%To counter to the influence of thermal environment caused by the heat produced by human bodies and equipment on the persons in the mine refuge chamber, study was made on the dynamic coupled heat transfer regularity of air and surrounding rock wall in a sealed refuge chamber without any cooling measures. By using the theoretical analysis and tests, the calculation method for heat produced by human bodies and equipment and the temperature rise regularity in the refuge chamber in the escape period were obtained. This research result has a certain theoretical guiding significance for the control of the hot-moist environment in the mine refuge chamber.

  5. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  6. The global SMOS Level 3 daily soil moisture and brightness temperature maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Al Bitar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present the multi-orbit (MO surface soil moisture (SM and angle-binned brightness temperature (TB products for the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission based on a new multi-orbit algorithm. The Level 3 algorithm at CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS makes use of MO retrieval to enhance the robustness and quality of SM retrievals. The motivation of the approach is to make use of the longer temporal autocorrelation length of the vegetation optical depth (VOD compared to the corresponding SM autocorrelation in order to enhance the retrievals when an acquisition occurs at the border of the swath. The retrieval algorithm is implemented in a unique operational processor delivering multiple parameters (e.g. SM and VOD using multi-angular dual-polarisation TB from MO. A subsidiary angle-binned TB product is provided. In this study the Level 3 TB V310 product is showcased and compared to SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive TB. The Level 3 SM V300 product is compared to the single-orbit (SO retrievals from the Level 2 SM processor from ESA with aligned configuration. The advantages and drawbacks of the Level 3 SM product (L3SM are discussed. The comparison is done on a global scale between the two datasets and on the local scale with respect to in situ data from AMMA-CATCH and USDA ARS Watershed networks. The results obtained from the global analysis show that the MO implementation enhances the number of retrievals: up to 9 % over certain areas. The comparison with the in situ data shows that the increase in the number of retrievals does not come with a decrease in quality, but rather at the expense of an increased time lag in product availability from 6 h to 3.5 days, which can be a limiting factor for applications like flood forecast but reasonable for drought monitoring and climate change studies. The SMOS L3 soil moisture and L3 brightness temperature products are delivered using an

  7. The impact of local land subsidence and global sea level rise on flood severity in Houston-Galveston caused by Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2017-12-01

    Category-4 Hurricane Harvey had devastating socioeconomic impacts to Houston, with flooding far past the 100-year flood zones published by FEMA. In recent decades, frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are escalating, correlated with sea level rise (SLR). Moreover, Local land subsidence (LLS) due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and natural compaction changes surface elevation and slope, potentially altering drainage patterns. GPS data show a mm broad co-cyclonic subsidence due to elastic loading from the water mass measured by GPS, which is inverted to solve for the total fluid volume of 2.73x1010 m3. We additionally investigate the joint impact of an SLR and pre-cyclonic LLS on the flooding of Houston-Galveston during Hurricane Harvey. We examine vertical land motion within North American Vertical Datum 2012 for the period 2007 until the cyclone by investigating SAR imaged acquired by ALOS and Sentinel-1A/B radar satellites combined with GPS data. We find patchy, LLS bowls resulting in sinks where floodwater can collect. We map the flooding extent by comparing amplitudes of Sentinal1-A/B pixels' backscattered radar signal from pre- and post-Harvey acquisitions and estimate 782 km2 are submerged within the area of 3478 km2 of pixels covered by Sentinel frame. Comparing with the LLS map, 89% of the flooded pixels exhibit -3 mm/yr or greater vertical motion. Flooding attributed to the storm surge is determined with high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models (DEM) and a 0.75 m storm tide inundation model, which engulfs only 195 km2 and nearby the shorelines. We estimate future inundation hazard by combining LiDAR DEMs with our InSAR derived subsidence map, projecting LLS rates forward 100 years, and modeling projected SLR from 0.4 to 1.2 meters. Were subsidence to continue unabated, the total flooded area is 281 km2 with a 0.4 m and 394 km2 with a 1.2 m SLR. Next, we add a modest storm tide (0.752 m), which increases the flooded area to 389 - 480

  8. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost Database: metadata statistics and prospective analysis on future permafrost temperature and active layer depth monitoring site distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biskaborn, B. K.; Lanckman, J.-P.; Lantuit, H.; Elger, K.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Cable, W. L.; Romanovsky, V. E.

    2015-03-01

    The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high

  9. Toward Spectroscopically Detecting the Global Latitudinal Temperature Variation on the Solar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Y.; UeNo, S.

    2017-09-01

    A very slight rotation-induced latitudinal temperature variation (presumably on the order of several kelvin) on the solar surface is theoretically expected. While recent high-precision solar brightness observations reported its detection, confirmation by an alternative approach using the strengths of spectral lines is desirable, for which reducing the noise due to random fluctuation caused by atmospheric inhomogeneity is critical. Toward this difficult task, we carried out a pilot study of spectroscopically investigating the relative variation of temperature (T) at a number of points in the solar circumference region near to the limb (where latitude dependence should be detectable, if any exists) based on the equivalent widths (W) of 28 selected lines in the 5367 - 5393 Å and 6075 - 6100 Å regions. We paid special attention to i) clarifying which types of lines should be employed and ii) how much precision is attainable in practice. We found that lines with strong T-sensitivity (|log W/log T|) should be used and that very weak lines should be avoided because they inevitably suffer strong relative fluctuations (Δ W/W). Our analysis revealed that a precision of Δ T/T ≈ 0.003 (corresponding to ≈ 15 K) can be achieved at best by a spectral line with comparatively large |log W/log T|, although this can possibly be further improved When a number of lines are used all together. Accordingly, if many such favorable lines could be measured with subpercent precision of Δ W/W and by averaging the resulting Δ T/T from each line, the random noise would eventually be reduced to ≲ 1 K and detection of a very subtle amount of global T-gradient might be possible.

  10. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-02-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  11. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend–dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  12. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  13. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  14. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  15. Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid

  16. The Climate Science Special Report: Rising Seas and Changing Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    GMSL has risen by about 16-21 cm since 1900. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s, and global mean sea-surface temperature increased 0.7°C/century between 1900 to 2016. Human activity contributed substantially to generating a rate of GMSL rise since 1900 faster than during any preceding century in at least 2800 years. A new set of six sea-level rise scenarios, spanning a range from 30 cm to 250 cm of 21st century GMSL rise, were developed for the CSSR. The lower scenario is based on linearly extrapolating the past two decades' rate of rise. The upper scenario is informed by literature estimates of maximum physically plausible values, observations indicating the onset of marine ice sheet instability in parts of West Antarctica, and modeling of ice-cliff and ice-shelf instability mechanisms. The new scenarios include localized projections along US coastlines. There is significant variability around the US, with rates of rise likely greater than GMSL rise in the US Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. Under scenarios involving extreme Antarctic contributions, regional rise would be greater than GMSL rise along almost all US coastlines. Historical sea-level rise has already driven a 5- to 10-fold increase in minor tidal flooding in several US coastal cities since the 1960s. Under the CSSR's Intermediate sea-level rise scenario (1.0 m of GMSL rise in 2100) , a majority of NOAA tide gauge locations will by 2040 experience the historical 5-year coastal flood about 5 times per year. Ocean changes are not limited to rising sea levels. Ocean pH is decreasing at a rate that may be unparalleled in the last 66 million years. Along coastlines, ocean acidification can be enhanced by changes in the upwelling (particularly along the US Pacific Coast); by episodic, climate change-enhanced increases in freshwater input (particularly along the US Atlantic Coast); and by the enhancement of biological respiration by nutrient runoff. Climate models project

  17. Temperature minima in the average thermal structure of the middle mesosphere (70 - 80 km) from analysis of 40- to 92-km SME global temperature profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.; Callan, Michael T.

    1994-01-01

    Global temperatures have been derived for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) limb radiance profiles. The SME temperature represent fixed local time observations at 1400 - 1500 LT, with partial zonal coverage of 3 - 5 longitudes per day over the 1982-1986 period. These new SME temperatures are compared to the COSPAR International Ionosphere Reference Atmosphere 86 (CIRA 86) climatology (Fleming et al., 1990) as well as stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS); Barnett and Corney, 1984), National Meteorological Center (NMC); (Gelman et al., 1986), and individual lidar and rocket observations. Significant areas of disagreement between the SME and CIRA 86 mesospheric temperatures are 10 K warmer SME temperatures at altitudes above 80 km. The 1981-1982 SAMS temperatures are in much closer agreement with the SME temperatures between 40 and 75 km. Although much of the SME-CIRA 86 disagreement probably stems from the poor vertical resolution of the observations comprising the CIRA 86 modelm, some portion of the differences may reflect 5- to 10-year temporal variations in mesospheric temperatures. The CIRA 86 climatology is based on 1973-1978 measurements. Relatively large (1 K/yr) 5- to 10-year trends in temperatures as functions of longitude, latitude, and altitude have been observed for both the upper stratosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989a) and mesosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989b; Hauchecorne et al., 1991). The SME temperatures also exhibit enhanced amplitudes for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of upper mesospheric temperatures at low latitudes, which are not evident in the CIRA 86 climatology. The so-called mesospheric `temperature inversions' at wintertime midlatitudes, which have been observed by ground-based lidar (Hauschecorne et al., 1987) and rocket in situ measurements (Schmidlin, 1976), are shown to be a climatological aspect of the mesosphere, based on the SME observations.

  18. Simply obtained global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture in an alley cropping system in semi-arid Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mungai, D.N.; Stigter, C.J.; Coulson, C.L.; Ng'ang'a, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    Global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture data were obtained from a 4-6 year old Cassia siamea/maize (CM) alley cropping (or hedgerow intercropping) system, at a semi-arid site at Machakos, Kenya, in the late eighties. With the growing need to explore and manage variations in

  19. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  20. Calculations from the Hadley Centre: The ocean is rising even with stable CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2000-01-01

    The article presents calculations and forecasts for the atmospheric CO 2 level changes in the period of 2000 to 2350. Correlations between the levels and the average global temperature and the sea level are studied for the period of 1850 to 2200. The main conclusion is that the sea level will continue to rise for several hundred years even with a stable atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the next century due to the slow response of oceans to global warming

  1. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

  2. Displacement response of a concrete arch dam to seasonal temperature fluctuations and reservoir level rise during the first filling period: evidence from geodetic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cemal Ozer Yigit

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study evaluates the dynamic behaviour of the Ermenek Dam, the second highest dam in Turkey, based on conventional geodetic measurements and Finite Element Model (FEM analyses during its first filling period. In total, eight periods of measured deformation are considered from the end of construction until the reservoir reached its full capacity. The displacement response of the dam to the reservoir level and to seasonal temperature variations is examined in detail. Time series of apparent total displacements at the middle of the crest of the dam exhibits periodicity and linear trends. Correlation analysis revealed that periodic and linear displacement responses of the dam are related to variations of seasonal temperature and linearly increased reservoir level, respectively, indicating a relation between temperature, water load and dam deformation. It is also concluded that measured deformations based on geodetic data show good agreement with the predicted deformation obtained by the FEM analysis.

  3. Modeling the effect of adverse environmental conditions and clothing on temperature rise in a human body exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Stephen M; McIntosh, Robert L; Iskra, Steve; Wood, Andrew W

    2015-02-01

    This study considers the computationally determined thermal profile of a fully clothed, finely discretized, heterogeneous human body model, subject to the maximum allowable reference level for a 1-GHz radio frequency electromagnetic field for a worker, and also subject to adverse environmental conditions, including high humidity and high ambient temperature. An initial observation is that while electromagnetic fields at the occupational safety limit will contribute an additional thermal load to the tissues, and subsequently, cause an elevated temperature, the magnitude of this effect is far outweighed by that due to the conditions including the ambient temperature, relative humidity, and the type of clothing worn. It is envisaged that the computational modeling approach outlined in this paper will be suitably modified in future studies to evaluate the thermal response of a body at elevated metabolic rates, and for different body shapes and sizes including children and pregnant women.

  4. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  5. Optical measurement of water over-heating in contact with a wall submitted to a quick temperature rise under atmospheric pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrardt, Jacques

    1981-01-01

    As a technique is necessary for the instantaneous measurement of a liquid temperature at the immediate vicinity of a wall submitted to a quick unsteady heating, this research thesis reports the development of such a technique, and its use for the determination of the temperature reached by the liquid before boiling in unsteady regime. After a report of a literature survey on the unsteady heating of liquid (by thermal shock or progressive heating), and on various theoretical aspects, the author reports the use of a measurement installation which is based on the use of optical interferometry, and on the exploitation of raw experimental data. Results of overheating at boiling initiation are interpreted [fr

  6. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  7. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the pa