WorldWideScience

Sample records for global temperature increase

  1. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2018-04-01

    Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

  2. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  3. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

  4. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

  5. Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706

  6. Global Increases in Individualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Henri C; Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

    2017-09-01

    Individualism appears to have increased over the past several decades, yet most research documenting this shift has been limited to the study of a handful of highly developed countries. Is the world becoming more individualist as a whole? If so, why? To answer these questions, we examined 51 years of data on individualist practices and values across 78 countries. Our findings suggest that individualism is indeed rising in most of the societies we tested. Despite dramatic shifts toward greater individualism around the world, however, cultural differences remain sizable. Moreover, cultural differences are primarily linked to changes in socioeconomic development, and to a lesser extent to shifts in pathogen prevalence and disaster frequency.

  7. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  8. Mediating water temperature increases due to livestock and global change in high elevation meadow streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastien Nussle; Kathleen R. Matthews; Stephanie M. Carlson

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout...

  9. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  10. Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  11. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  12. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

  13. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  14. NOAA Global Surface Temperature (NOAAGlobalTemp)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is a merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (formerly known as MLOST) (link is external). It is...

  15. Increasing women in leadership in global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, Jennifer A; Reif, Lindsey K; Hokororo, Adolfine; Fitzgerald, Daniel W

    2014-08-01

    Globally, women experience a disproportionate burden of disease and death due to inequities in access to basic health care, nutrition, and education. In the face of this disparity, it is striking that leadership in the field of global health is highly skewed towards men and that global health organizations neglect the issue of gender equality in their own leadership. Randomized trials demonstrate that women in leadership positions in governmental organizations implement different policies than men and that these policies are more supportive of women and children. Other studies show that proactive interventions to increase the proportion of women in leadership positions within businesses or government can be successful. Therefore, the authors assert that increasing female leadership in global health is both feasible and a fundamental step towards addressing the problem of women's health. In this Perspective, the authors contrast the high proportion of young female trainees who are interested in academic global health early in their careers with the low numbers of women successfully rising to global health leadership roles. The authors subsequently explore reasons for female attrition from the field of global health and offer practical strategies for closing the gender gap in global health leadership. The authors propose solutions aimed to promote female leaders from both resource-wealthy and resource-poor countries, including leadership training grants, mentorship from female leaders in global professions, strengthening health education in resource-poor countries, research-enabling grants, and altering institutional policies to support women choosing a global health career path.

  16. Analysed foundation sea surface temperature, global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The through-cloud capabilities of microwave radiometers provide a valuable picture of global sea surface temperature (SST). To utilize this, scientists at Remote...

  17. Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beladi, Hamid; Oladi, Reza

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simple duopoly market in which a home firm and a foreign firm use labor to produce an identical product and supply it to the home market. Firms emit pollution as a by-product of production. We show conditions under which international trade liberalization decreases (increases) the global pollution. (author)

  18. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Campos, C.P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries. (author)

  19. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses--CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Pires de Campos, Christiano

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the Carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries

  20. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  1. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, Grant; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr −1 . When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Niño/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.

  2. Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

  3. Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20

  4. European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

    2018-05-01

    We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to

  5. Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Brunke

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous analyses of the Earth’s annual cycle and its trends have utilized surface temperature data sets. Here we introduce a new analysis of the global and hemispheric annual cycle using a satellite remote sensing derived data set during the period 1979–2009, as determined from the lower tropospheric (LT channel of the MSU satellite. While the surface annual cycle is tied directly to the heating and cooling of the land areas, the tropospheric annual cycle involves additionally the gain or loss of heat between the surface and atmosphere. The peak in the global tropospheric temperature in the 30 year period occurs on 10 July and the minimum on 9 February in response to the larger land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. The actual dates of the hemispheric maxima and minima are a complex function of many variables which can change from year to year thereby altering these dates.Here we examine the time of occurrence of the global and hemispheric maxima and minima lower tropospheric temperatures, the values of the annual maxima and minima, and the slopes and significance of the changes in these metrics.  The statistically significant trends are all relatively small. The values of the global annual maximum and minimum showed a small, but significant trend. Northern and Southern Hemisphere maxima and minima show a slight trend toward occurring later in the year. Most recent analyses of trends in the global annual cycle using observed surface data have indicated a trend toward earlier maxima and minima.

  6. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux; Gerard Grehan

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm 3 . The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  7. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire DSU/SERAC, BP 68, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Gerard Grehan [UMR 6614 CORIA, Laboratoire d' Electromagnetisme et Systemes Particulaires Site Universitaire du Madrillet, Avenue de l' universite BP 12, 76 801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, (France)

    2005-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm{sup 3}. The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Mohajan, Haradhan

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

  9. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  10. Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) Data, 1985-present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) develops and maintains a global ocean temperature and salinity resource with data that are both up-to-date...

  11. Functional responses of North Atlantic fish eggs to increasing temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsoukali, Stavroula; Visser, Andre; MacKenzie, Brian

    2016-01-01

    -days and survival of fish eggs from 32 populations of 17 species in the North Atlantic to different temperatures in order to determine potential consequences of global warming for these species. The response of development time exhibited a similar decreasing trend with respect to temperature across species....... There was an overall decrease, across species, in an index of thermal requirement (cumulative degree-days) for egg development with increasing temperature. Within an empirically derived optimal thermal range for egg survival, the thermal requirement was more variable in species adapted to cold waters compared...... to species adapted to warmer waters. Moreover, the sensitivity of survival of eggs from different species to increases in temperature differed, reflecting a pattern of sensitivity along a stenotherm-eurytherm gradient of vulnerability to temperature among species. The results quantify physiological effects...

  12. Antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacFadden, Derek R.; McGough, Sarah F.; Fisman, David; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S.

    2018-06-01

    Bacteria that cause infections in humans can develop or acquire resistance to antibiotics commonly used against them1,2. Antimicrobial resistance (in bacteria and other microbes) causes significant morbidity worldwide, and some estimates indicate the attributable mortality could reach up to 10 million by 20502-4. Antibiotic resistance in bacteria is believed to develop largely under the selective pressure of antibiotic use; however, other factors may contribute to population level increases in antibiotic resistance1,2. We explored the role of climate (temperature) and additional factors on the distribution of antibiotic resistance across the United States, and here we show that increasing local temperature as well as population density are associated with increasing antibiotic resistance (percent resistant) in common pathogens. We found that an increase in temperature of 10 °C across regions was associated with an increases in antibiotic resistance of 4.2%, 2.2%, and 2.7% for the common pathogens Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. The associations between temperature and antibiotic resistance in this ecological study are consistent across most classes of antibiotics and pathogens and may be strengthening over time. These findings suggest that current forecasts of the burden of antibiotic resistance could be significant underestimates in the face of a growing population and climate change4.

  13. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

    2018-04-30

    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  14. Evidence that global evapotranspiration makes a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.

    2018-02-01

    The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15

  15. Global nitrogen requirement for increased biofuel production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flapper, Joris

    2008-01-01

    Biofuels are thought to be one of the options to substitute fossil fuels and prevent global warming by the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect as they are seen as a renewable form of energy. However, biofuels are almost solely subjected to criticism from an energ

  16. Global temperature stability by rule induction: An interdisciplinary bridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, J.D.; Grzymala-Busse, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Rules incorporating influences on global temperature, an estimate of radiation balance, were induced from astronomical, geophysical, and anthropogenic variables. During periods of intermediate global temperatures (generally like the present century), the influences assume canceling roles; influences cancel the effects of extreme states potentially imposed by other influences because they are, in aggregate, most likely to be assuming opposite values. This imparts an overall stability to the global temperature. To achieve cold or hot global temperature, influences assume reinforcing roles. CO 2 is an active influence on global temperature. By virtue of its constancy in the atmosphere, it can be expected to sponsor frequent hot years in combination with the other influences as they cycle through their periods. If measures were implemented to maintain warm or cool global temperatures, it could retain the status quo of present global agricultural regions. They are probably more productive than hot world regions would be because of narrow storm tracks

  17. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  18. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  19. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  20. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  1. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  2. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  3. Potential Increasing Dominance of Heterotrophy in the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvale, K.; Meissner, K. J.; Keller, D. P.

    2016-02-01

    Autotrophs are largely limited by resources in the modern ocean. However, standard metabolic theory suggests continued ocean warming could globally benefit heterotrophs, thereby reducing autotrophic nutrient limitation. The paleo record as well as modern observations offer evidence this has happened in the past and could happen again. Increasing dominance of heterotrophs would result in strong nutrient recycling in the upper ocean and high rates of net primary production (NPP), yet low carbon export to the deep ocean and sediments. We describe the transition towards such a state in the early 22nd century as a response to business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP8.5) in an intermediate complexity Earth system model in three configurations: with and without an explicit calcifier phytoplankton class and calcite ballast model. In all models nutrient regeneration in the near surface becomes an increasingly important driver of primary production. The near-linear relationship between changes in NPP and global sea surface temperature (SST) found over the 21st century becomes exponential above a 2-4 °C global mean SST change. This transition to a more heterotrophic ocean agrees roughly with metabolic theory. Inclusion of small phytoplankton and calcifiers increase the model NPP:SST sensitivity because of their relatively higher nutrient affinity than general phytoplankton. Accounting for organic carbon "protected" from remineralization by carbonate ballast mitigates the exponential increase in NPP and provides an increasingly important pathway for deep carbon export with higher SST changes, despite simultaneous increasing carbonate dissolution rates due to ocean acidification.

  4. Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

    2016-12-01

    In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

  5. The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hussainy, F.M.

    1995-08-01

    This paper presented the relationship between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  6. NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is derived from two independent analyses: the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)...

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  8. Leptospirosis: a globally increasing zoonotic disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Rock, Clare

    2010-01-01

    A 27-year-old previously healthy man was admitted to the intensive care unit with severe jaundice, dyspnoea with haemoptysis, anaemia, thrombocytopenia and acute renal injury. He had no recent history of foreign travel but had been building a shed in his back garden in Cork, Ireland, for the preceding week. The patient\\'s history, clinical observations, haematological and radiological results were all consistent with icteric leptospirosis or Weil\\'s disease. This was confirmed on serological testing. He completed 7 days intravenous ceftriaxone and made a complete recovery. While endemic in tropical climates, leptospirosis incidence is increasing in temperate climates. Recent cases seen in temperate climates can be severe, particularly with pulmonary manifestations. The report of this case serves to increase awareness of this re-emerging potentially fatal infectious disease.

  9. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

  10. Genetic aftereffects of increased temperature in Larix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Greenwood; Keith W. Hutchinson

    1996-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that temperature during gametogenesis and embryogenesis can affect progeny genotype and phenotype. Identical crosses were made among cloned parents of Larix spp. inside and outside a greenhouse, where the temperature inside averaged 4?C above the outside temperature. Significant growth differences as a function of crossing...

  11. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  12. Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

    1997-01-01

    An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

  13. Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

  14. Geomagnetic activity and the global temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 4 (2009), s. 571-573 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : global warming * Southern Oscillation * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009

  15. Effects of temperature increase in insect community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuda, Midori; Fujii, Koichi

    1993-01-01

    Temperature will rise by 2degC in the near future. Potential effects of the rise on biological community are predicted with little evidence on the subjects. Individualistic responses of component species in community are often ignored. We performed experiments on a lab host-parasitoid community and tested the hypothesis that individualistic changes in developmental schedules by temperature rise can generate drastic community change. (author)

  16. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  17. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  18. Global 1-km Sea Surface Temperature (G1SST)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — JPL OurOcean Portal: A daily, global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set is produced at 1-km (also known as ultra-high resolution) by the JPL ROMS (Regional Ocean...

  19. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  20. Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden

    2017-10-01

    Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.

  1. On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

    Science.gov (United States)

    KäRner, O.

    2002-10-01

    Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

  2. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris" : An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-01-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these

  3. Nutrients and temperature additively increase stream microbial respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. P. Manning; Amy D. Rosemond; Vladislav Gulis; Jonathan P. Benstead; John S. Kominoski

    2017-01-01

    Rising temperatures and nutrient enrichment are co‐occurring global‐change drivers that stimulate microbial respiration of detrital carbon, but nutrient effects on the temperature dependence of respiration in aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. We measured respiration rates associated with leaf litter, wood, and fine benthic organic matter (FBOM) across...

  4. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  5. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  6. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  7. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  8. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  9. A possible mechanism relating increased soil temperature to forest decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomlinson, G.H.

    1993-01-01

    Nutrient cations are removed from the soil by uptake in biomass, and by leaching as a result of soil acidification. Such acidification results from acid deposition and/or from HNO 3 formed by mineralization and nitrification of humus, when at a rate in excess of the tree's nutritional requirements. This has been found to occur during and following periods of increased temperature and reduced rainfall. The cumulative loss of either Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ or K + by one or more of these processes, if greater than the amount released from the specific minerals in that soil, leads to nutrient deficiency, fine root mortality, poor growth, and eventually to die-back. Trees growing in soils derived from specific minerals in which there is a strong imbalance in the elements from which the exchangeable nutrients are formed, are vulnerable to nutrient deficiency. This paper discusses the relevance of earlier studies, when considered in relation to more recent findings. In Hawaii there have been frequent periods of increased temperature and drought resulting from the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This fact, when considered in relation to the relatively low K content, and its imbalance with Ca and Mg in the lava and volcanic ash on which the trees have grown, could result in K deficiency in the declining ohia trees. It is possible that the unusual periods of increased temperature and drought which have occurred in certain other localized areas may have led to the decline symptoms recently observed. In view of the threat of global warming, this possibility should be investigated. 39 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  10. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  11. High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

  12. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  13. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

  14. Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

    2018-03-01

    Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

  15. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  16. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  17. Seasonal differences in human responses to increasing temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitazawa, Sachie; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Wargocki, Pawel

    2014-01-01

    to be sleepier. Heart rate slightly increased during exposure, and SpO2 and ETCO2 began to decrease while core temperature started to increase. Performance of Tsai-partington test and addition test improved during exposures due to learning though lesser in winter. Results show negative effects of the temperature......Experiments were conducted in late summer and winter with 80 young and elderly Danish subjects exposed for 3.5 hours in a climate chamber to the temperature increasing from 24°C to 35.2°C at a rate of 3.7K/h. Psychological and physiological measurements were performed during exposure and subjects...... assessed comfort and acute health symptoms. Thermal sensation increased with increasing chamber temperature and did not differ during late summer and winter exposures. Skin temperature increased with increasing temperature and was slightly but significantly higher in the late summer in the first half...

  18. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  20. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  2. Global health-related publications in otolaryngology are increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Kyle J; Creighton, Francis; Abdul-Aziz, Dunia; Cheney, Mack; Randolph, Gregory W

    2015-04-01

    Determine trends in global health-related publication in otolaryngology. A review of research databases. A search of publications available on PubMed and nine additional databases was undertaken reviewing two time periods 10 years apart for the timeframes 1998 to 2002 (early time period) and 2008 to 2012 (recent time period) using specific search terms to identify global health-related publications in otolaryngology. Publications were examined for region of origin, subspecialty, type of publication, and evidence of international collaboration. χ and t test analyses were used to identify trends. In the 1998 to 2002 time period, a total of 26 publications met inclusion criteria for the study, with a mean of 5.2 ± 2.8 publications per year. In the 2008 to 2012 time period, a total of 61 publications met inclusion criteria, with a mean of 12.3 ± 5.6 publications per year. The 235% increase in global health-related publications identified between the two study periods was statistically significant (P = .02). The absolute number of publications in which collaboration occurred between countries increased from three in the early time period to nine the recent time period. There has been a significant increase in the volume of global health-related publications in English language otolaryngology journals over the past decade, providing strong evidence of the increasing trend of global health as an academic pursuit within the field of otolaryngology. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  3. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  4. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  5. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  6. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  7. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  8. Detrimental effect of temperature increase on the fitness of an amphibian ( Lissotriton helveticus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloy, Valérie; Denoël, Mathieu

    2010-03-01

    Increases of global temperatures have resulted in measurable shifts in the distribution, phenology and survival of some plant and animal species. However, the mechanisms showing links between global warming and biodiversity declines remain unclear. The aim of this study was to examine whether a key parameter of fitness, i.e. offspring number, could be affected by a temperature increase. To this end, we compared egg-laying traits at naturally occurring temperatures (14 °C, 18 °C and 22 °C) in palmate newts, Lissotriton helveticus. Our study suggests that water temperature increase has a negative effect on the fecundity of female newts. Females lay half as many eggs at high temperatures as they do at low temperatures, which results in a lower number of hatchlings. This study shows that global warming would affect amphibian populations. It complements other studies in pointing out that changes in phenology may not be driven only by warmer earlier temperatures but also by counter-selection during late-breeding, particularly in long-term breeders such as newts. More experimental studies should be carried out to understand the complex consequences of global warming and the proximate mechanisms of amphibian decline.

  9. Increasing Global Competitiveness: A Case for the Pakistan Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Shamyla Chaudry

    2007-01-01

    The issue of global competitiveness is critical for developing countries. This paper looks at the drivers that influence industrial competitiveness and provides a comparison of these drivers for Pakistan, India and China. The analysis shows that Pakistan lags behind China and India in most of the main components of the industrial competitiveness index. The analysis also presents a series of micro and macro level policy recommendations aimed at increasing Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness.

  10. Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

    2016-04-01

    Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

  11. Physiological responses of rice to increased day and night temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Wanju

    2017-01-01

    A more rapid increase in night-time temperature compared with day-time temperature and the increased frequency of heat waves associated with climate change present a serious threat to rice (Oryza sativa L.) production and food security. This thesis aims to understand the impact of high

  12. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanh Dung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

  13. Drivers And Uncertainties Of Increasing Global Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Pfister, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity threatens ecosystems and human health and hampers economic development. It generally depends on the ratio of water consumption to availability. We calculated global, spatially explicit water stress indices (WSIs) which describe the vulnerability to additional water consumption on a scale from 0 (low) to 1 (high) and compare them for the decades 1981-1990 and 2001-2010. Input data are obtained from a multi-model ensemble at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. The variability among the models was used to run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations (latin hypercube sampling) and to subsequently estimate uncertainties of the WSIs. Globally, a trend of increasing water scarcity can be observed, however, uncertainties are large. The probability that this trend is actually occurring is as low as 53%. The increase in WSIs is rather driven by higher water use than lower water availability. Water availability is only 40% likely to decrease whereas water consumption is 67% likely to increase. Independent from the trend, we are already living under water scarce conditions, which is reflected in a consumption-weighted average of monthly WSIs of 0.51 in the recent decade. Its coefficient of variation points with 0.8 to the high uncertainties entailed, which might still hide poor model performance where all models consistently over- or underestimate water availability or use. Especially in arid areas, models generally overestimate availability. Although we do not traverse the planetary boundary of freshwater use as global water availability is sufficient, local water scarcity might be high. Therefore the regionalized assessment of WSIs under uncertainty helps to focus on specific regions to optimise water consumption. These global results can also help to raise awareness of water scarcity, and to suggest relevant measures such as more water efficient technologies to international companies, which have to deal with complex and distributed supply chains (e.g. in food production).

  14. The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

    2017-05-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

  15. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  16. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

  17. The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

    2003-07-01

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

  18. Global versus local mechanisms of temperature sensing in ion channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigoni, Cristina; Minor, Daniel L

    2018-05-01

    Ion channels turn diverse types of inputs, ranging from neurotransmitters to physical forces, into electrical signals. Channel responses to ligands generally rely on binding to discrete sensor domains that are coupled to the portion of the channel responsible for ion permeation. By contrast, sensing physical cues such as voltage, pressure, and temperature arises from more varied mechanisms. Voltage is commonly sensed by a local, domain-based strategy, whereas the predominant paradigm for pressure sensing employs a global response in channel structure to membrane tension changes. Temperature sensing has been the most challenging response to understand and whether discrete sensor domains exist for pressure and temperature has been the subject of much investigation and debate. Recent exciting advances have uncovered discrete sensor modules for pressure and temperature in force-sensitive and thermal-sensitive ion channels, respectively. In particular, characterization of bacterial voltage-gated sodium channel (BacNa V ) thermal responses has identified a coiled-coil thermosensor that controls channel function through a temperature-dependent unfolding event. This coiled-coil thermosensor blueprint recurs in other temperature sensitive ion channels and thermosensitive proteins. Together with the identification of ion channel pressure sensing domains, these examples demonstrate that "local" domain-based solutions for sensing force and temperature exist and highlight the diversity of both global and local strategies that channels use to sense physical inputs. The modular nature of these newly discovered physical signal sensors provides opportunities to engineer novel pressure-sensitive and thermosensitive proteins and raises new questions about how such modular sensors may have evolved and empowered ion channel pores with new sensibilities.

  19. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

    2010-01-01

    temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.

  1. Evidence on a link between the intensity of Schumann resonance and global surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sekiguchi

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available A correlation is investigated between the intensity of the global electromagnetic oscillations (Schumann resonance with the planetary surface temperature. The electromagnetic signal was monitored at Moshiri (Japan, and temperature data were taken from surface meteorological observations. The series covers the period from November 1998 to May 2002. The Schumann resonance intensity is found to vary coherently with the global ground temperature in the latitude interval from 45° S to 45° N: the relevant cross-correlation coefficient reaches the value of 0.9. It slightly increases when the high-latitude temperature is incorporated. Correspondence among the data decreases when we reduce the latitude interval, which indicates the important role of the middle-latitude lightning in the Schumann resonance oscillations. We apply the principal component (or singular spectral analysis to the electromagnetic and temperature records to extract annual, semiannual, and interannual variations. The principal component analysis (PCA clarifies the links between electromagnetic records and meteorological data.

  2. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  3. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  4. Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

  5. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  6. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

    2015-04-17

    In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

  7. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  8. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  9. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  10. Temperature increase beneath etched dentin discs during composite polymerization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaarslan, Emine Sirin; Secilmis, Asli; Bulbul, Mehmet; Yildirim, Cihan; Usumez, Aslihan

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this in vitro study was to measure the temperature increase during the polymerization of a composite resin beneath acid-etched or laser-etched dentin discs. The irradiation of dentin with an Er:YAG laser may have a positive effect on the thermal conductivity of dentin. This technique has not been studied extensively. Forty dentin discs (5 mm in diameter and 0.5 or 1 mm in height) were prepared from extracted permanent third molars. These dentin discs were etched with 20% orthophosphoric acid or an Er:YAG laser, and were then placed on an apparatus developed to measure temperature increases. The composite resin was polymerized with a high-intensity quartz tungsten halogen (HQTH) or light-emitting diode unit (LED). The temperature increase was measured under the dentin disc with a J-type thermocouple wire that was connected to a data logger. Five measurements were made for each dentin disc, curing unit, and etching system combination. Differences between the initial and the highest temperature readings were taken, and the five calculated temperature changes were averaged to determine the value of the temperature increase. Statistical analysis was performed with a three-way ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests at a 0.05 level of significance. Further SEM examinations were performed. The temperature increase values varied significantly, depending on etching systems (p < 0.05), dentin thicknesses (p < 0.05), and curing units (p < 0.05). Temperature increases measured beneath laser-etched discs were significantly higher than those for acid-etched dentin discs (p < 0.05). The HQTH unit induced significantly higher temperature increases than the LED unit (p < 0.05). The LED unit induced the lowest temperature change (5.2°C) in the 1-mm, acid-etched dentin group. The HQTH unit induced the highest temperature change (10.4°C) for the 0.5-mm, laser-etched dentin group. The risk of heat-induced pulpal damage should be taken into consideration

  11. Increased nitrogen availability counteracts climatic change feedback from increased temperature on boreal forest soil organic matter degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erhagen, Bjorn; Nilsson, Mats; Oquist, Mats; Ilstedt, Ulrik; Sparrman, Tobias; Schleucher, Jurgen

    2014-05-01

    Over the last century, the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, greatly exceeding pre-industrial levels that had prevailed for the preceding 420 000 years. At the same time the annual anthropogenic contribution to the global terrestrial nitrogen cycle has increased and currently exceeds natural inputs. Both temperature and nitrogen levels have profound effects on the global carbon cycle including the rate of organic matter decomposition, which is the most important biogeochemical process that returns CO2 to the atmosphere. Here we show for the first time that increasing the availability of nitrogen not only directly affects the rate of organic matter decomposition but also significantly affects its temperature dependence. We incubated litter and soil organic matter from a long-term (40 years) nitrogen fertilization experiment in a boreal Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) forest at different temperatures and determined the temperature dependence of the decomposition of the sample's organic matter in each case. Nitrogen fertilization did not affect the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of the decomposition of fresh plant litter but strongly reduced that for humus soil organic matter. The Q10 response of the 0-3 cm soil layer decreased from 2.5±0.35 to an average of 1.9±0.21 over all nitrogen treatments, and from 2.2±0.19 to 1.6±0.16 in response to the most intense nitrogen fertilization treatment in the 4-7 cm soil layer. Long-term nitrogen additions also significantly affected the organic chemical composition (as determined by 13C CP-MAS NMR spectroscopy) of the soil organic matter. These changes in chemical composition contributed significantly (p<0.05) to the reduced Q10 response. These new insights into the relationship between nitrogen availability and the temperature sensitivity of organic matter decomposition will be important for understanding and predicting how increases in global temperature and rising anthropogenic

  12. Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

    2009-01-01

    The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

  13. Reirradiation of mixed-oxide fuel pins at increased temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, L.A.; Weber, E.T.

    1976-05-01

    Mixed-oxide fuel pins from EBR-II irradiations were reirradiated in the General Electric Test Reactor (GETR) at higher temperatures than experienced in EBR-II to study effects of the increased operating temperatures on thermal/mechanical and chemical behavior. The response of a mixed-oxide fuel pin to a power increase after having operated at a lower power for a significant portion of its life-time is an area of performance evaluation where little information currently exists. Results show that the cladding diameter changes resulting from the reirradiation are strongly dependent upon both prior burnup level and the magnitude of the temperature increase. Results provide the initial rough outlines of boundaries within which mixed-oxide fuel pins can or cannot tolerate power increases after substantial prior burnup at lower powers

  14. Increasing Water Temperature Triggers Dominance of Small Freshwater Plankton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasconi, Serena; Gall, Andrea; Winter, Katharina; Kainz, Martin J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change scenarios predict that lake water temperatures will increase up to 4°C and rainfall events will become more intense and frequent by the end of this century. Concurrently, supply of humic substances from terrestrial runoff is expected to increase, resulting in darker watercolor ("brownification") of aquatic ecosystems. Using a multi-seasonal, low trophic state mesocosm experiment, we investigated how higher water temperature and brownification affect plankton community composition, phenology, and functioning. We tested the hypothesis that higher water temperature (+3°C) and brownification will, a) cause plankton community composition to shift toward small sized phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, and, b) extend the length of the growing season entailing higher phytoplankton production later in the season. We demonstrate that the 3°C increase of water temperature favored the growth of heterotrophic bacteria and small sized autotrophic picophytoplankton cells with significantly higher primary production during warmer fall periods. However, 3X darker water (effect of brownification) caused no significant changes in the plankton community composition or functioning relative to control conditions. Our findings reveal that increased temperature change plankton community structure by favoring smaller sized species proliferation (autotrophic phytoplankton and small size cladocerans), and increase primary productivity and community turnover. Finally, results of this multi-seasonal experiment suggest that warming by 3°C in aquatic ecosystems of low trophic state may cause planktonic food web functioning to become more dominated by fast growing, r-trait species (i.e., small sizes and rapid development).

  15. Effect of increasing growth temperature on yeast fermentation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of increasing growth temperature on yeast fermentation was studied at approximately 5 oC intervals over a range of 18 – 37 oC, using one strain each of ale, lager and wine yeast. The ale and wine yeasts grew at all the temperatures tested, but lager yeast failed to grow at 37 oC. All these strains gave lower ...

  16. Cross-sectional area of the murine aorta linearly increases with increasing core body temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crouch, A Colleen; Manders, Adam B; Cao, Amos A; Scheven, Ulrich M; Greve, Joan M

    2017-11-06

    The cardiovascular (CV) system plays a vital role in thermoregulation. To date, the response of core vasculature to increasing core temperature has not been adequately studied in vivo. Our objective was to non-invasively quantify the arterial response in murine models due to increases in body temperature, with a focus on core vessels of the torso and investigate whether responses were dependent on sex or age. Male and female, adult and aged mice were anaesthetised and underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Data were acquired from the circle of Willis (CoW), heart, infrarenal aorta and peripheral arteries at core temperatures of 35, 36, 37 and 38 °C (±0.2 °C). Vessels in the CoW did not change. Ejection fraction decreased and cardiac output (CO) increased with increasing temperature in adult female mice. Cross-sectional area of the aorta increased significantly and linearly with temperature for all groups, but at a diminished rate for aged animals (p temperature are biologically important because they may affect conductive and convective heat transfer. Leveraging non-invasive methodology to quantify sex and age dependent vascular responses due to increasing core temperature could be combined with bioheat modelling in order to improve understanding of thermoregulation.

  17. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

    2018-05-01

    The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

  18. Experimental demonstration of superconducting critical temperature increase in electromagnetic metamaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolyaninova, Vera N; Yost, Bradley; Zander, Kathryn; Osofsky, M S; Kim, Heungsoo; Saha, Shanta; Greene, R L; Smolyaninov, Igor I

    2014-12-04

    A recent proposal that the metamaterial approach to dielectric response engineering may increase the critical temperature of a composite superconductor-dielectric metamaterial has been tested in experiments with compressed mixtures of tin and barium titanate nanoparticles of varying composition. An increase of the critical temperature of the order of ΔT ~ 0.15 K compared to bulk tin has been observed for 40% volume fraction of barium titanate nanoparticles. Similar results were also obtained with compressed mixtures of tin and strontium titanate nanoparticles.

  19. Experimental demonstration of superconducting critical temperature increase in electromagnetic metamaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolyaninova, Vera N.; Yost, Bradley; Zander, Kathryn; Osofsky, M. S.; Kim, Heungsoo; Saha, Shanta; Greene, R. L.; Smolyaninov, Igor I.

    2014-12-01

    A recent proposal that the metamaterial approach to dielectric response engineering may increase the critical temperature of a composite superconductor-dielectric metamaterial has been tested in experiments with compressed mixtures of tin and barium titanate nanoparticles of varying composition. An increase of the critical temperature of the order of ΔT ~ 0.15 K compared to bulk tin has been observed for 40% volume fraction of barium titanate nanoparticles. Similar results were also obtained with compressed mixtures of tin and strontium titanate nanoparticles.

  20. Role of stranded gas in increasing global gas supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    This report synthesizes the findings of three regional studies in order to evaluate, at the global scale, the contribution that stranded gas resources can make to global natural gas supplies. Stranded gas, as defined for this study, is natural gas in discovered conventional gas and oil fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. The regional studies evaluated the cost of bringing the large volumes of undeveloped gas in stranded gas fields to selected markets. In particular, stranded gas fields of selected Atlantic Basin countries, north Africa, Russia, and central Asia are screened to determine whether the volumes are sufficient to meet Europe’s increasing demand for gas imports. Stranded gas fields in Russia, central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia are also screened to estimate development, production, and transport costs and corresponding gas volumes that could be supplied to Asian markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The data and cost analysis presented here suggest that for the European market and the markets examined in Asia, the development of stranded gas provides a way to meet projected gas import demands for the 2020-to-2040 period. Although this is a reconnaissance-type appraisal, it is based on volumes of gas that are associated with individual identified fields. Individual field data were carefully examined. Some fields were not evaluated because current technology was insufficient or it appeared the gas was likely to be held off the export market. Most of the evaluated stranded gas can be produced and delivered to markets at costs comparable to historical prices. Moreover, the associated volumes of gas are sufficient to provide an interim supply while additional technologies are developed to unlock gas diffused in shale and hydrates or while countries transition to making a greater use of renewable energy sources.

  1. Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable

  2. Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

  3. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  4. GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

  5. Global warming increases the interspecific competitiveness of the invasive plant alligator weed, Alternanthera philoxeroides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao; Ismail, Mohannad; Ding, Jianqing

    2017-01-01

    Global warming could accelerate the spread of invasive species to higher latitudes and intensify their effects on native species. Here, we report results of two years of field surveys along a latitudinal gradient (21°N to 31°N) in southern China, to determine the species structure of the invasive plant Alternanthera philoxeroides community. We also performed a replacement series experiment (mono and mixed) to evaluate the effects of elevated temperature on the competitiveness of A. philoxeroides with the native co-occurring species Digitaria sanguinalis. In the field survey, we found that the dominance of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing of latitude gradient while cover of D. sanguinalis decreased. In monospecific plantings, artificial warming reduced the length of D. sanguinalis roots. In mixed plantings, warming reduced both A. philoxeroides abundance and D. sanguinalis stem length when A. philoxeroides was more prevalent in the planting. Warming also significantly reduced D. sanguinalis biomass, but increased that of A. philoxeroides. In addition, elevated temperatures significantly reduced the relative yield (RY) of D. sanguinalis, particularly when A. philoxeroides was planted in higher proportion in the plot. These results suggest that the invasiveness of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing latitude, and that warming may increase the effectiveness of its interspecific competition with D. sanguinalis. Hence, under global warming conditions, the harm to native species from A. philoxeroides would increase at higher latitudes. Our findings are critical for predicting the invasiveness of alien species under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Temperature differences within the detector of the Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, compared to global radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjeldstad, Berit; Grandum, Oddbjorn

    1993-11-01

    The Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, has no temperature compensation, and the effect of temperature on the instrument response has been investigated and discussed in several reports. It is recommended to control the temperature of the detector or at least measure it. The temperature sensor is recommended to be positioned within the detector unit. We have measured the temperature at three different positions in the detector: At the edge of the green filter where the phosphor layer is placed; at the glass tube covering the cathode; and, finally, the air temperature inside the instrument. These measurements have been performed outdoors since July 1991, with corresponding measurements of the global and direct solar radiation. There was no difference between the temperature of the glasstube covering the cathode and the air inside the instrument, at any radiation level. However, there was a difference between the green filter and the two others. The difference is linearly dependent on the amount of global radiation. The temperature difference, (Delta) T (temperature between the green filter and the air inside the sensor), increased 0.8 degree(s)C when the global irradiation increased by 100 W/m2. At maximum global radiation in Trondheim (latitude 63.4 degree(s)N) (Delta) T was approximately 5 - 6 K when the global radiation was about 700 W/m2. This was valid for temperatures between 7 degree(s)C and 30 degree(s)C. Only clear days were evaluated.

  7. Impact of increasing temperature on snowfall in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serquet, G.; Marty, C.; Rebetez, M.

    2012-04-01

    The exact impact of changing temperatures on snow amounts is extremely important for mountainous regions, not only for hydrological aspects but also for winter tourism and the leisure industry in winter ski resorts. However, the impact of increasing temperatures on snowfall amounts is difficult to measure because of the large natural variability of precipitation. In addition, the impact of increasing temperatures varies, depending on region and altitude. Moreover, the impact of the observed increasing trend in temperature on snowfall and snow cover has usually been investigated on a seasonal basis only. On a monthly basis, the relationship between this increase in temperature and snowfall is still largely unknown. Of particular concern are the autumn and spring months and variations with altitude. In order to isolate the impact of changing temperatures on snowfall from the impact of changes in the frequency and intensity of total precipitation, we analyzed the proportion of snowfall days compared to precipitation days for each month from November to April in Switzerland. Our analyses concern 52 meteorological stations located between 200 and 2700 m asl over a 48 year time span. Our results show clear decreasing trends in snowfall days relative to precipitation days for all months (November to April) during the study period 1961-2008. Moreover, the present conditions in December, January and February correspond to those measured in the 1960's in November and March. During the whole snow season, the snowfall ratios have been transferred in elevation by at least 300 m from 1961 to 2008. This means that with an expected temperature increase during the coming decades at least similar to the temperature rise of recent decades, we can assume an additional similar altitudinal transfer of the snowfall days relative to precipitation days ratios. The current situation in November and March could thus become the future situation in December, January and February. During the

  8. Increasing global participation in genetics research through DNA barcoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamowicz, Sarah J; Steinke, Dirk

    2015-12-01

    DNA barcoding--the sequencing of short, standardized DNA regions for specimen identification and species discovery--has promised to facilitate rapid access to biodiversity knowledge by diverse users. Here, we advance our opinion that increased global participation in genetics research is beneficial, both to scientists and for science, and explore the premise that DNA barcoding can help to democratize participation in genetics research. We examine publication patterns (2003-2014) in the DNA barcoding literature and compare trends with those in the broader, related domain of genomics. While genomics is the older and much larger field, the number of nations contributing to the published literature is similar between disciplines. Meanwhile, DNA barcoding exhibits a higher pace of growth in the number of publications as well as greater evenness among nations in their proportional contribution to total authorships. This exploration revealed DNA barcoding to be a highly international discipline, with growing participation by researchers in especially biodiverse nations. We briefly consider several of the challenges that may hinder further participation in genetics research, including access to training and molecular facilities as well as policy relating to the movement of genetic resources.

  9. Increasing Water Temperature Triggers Dominance of Small Freshwater Plankton.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Rasconi

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios predict that lake water temperatures will increase up to 4°C and rainfall events will become more intense and frequent by the end of this century. Concurrently, supply of humic substances from terrestrial runoff is expected to increase, resulting in darker watercolor ("brownification" of aquatic ecosystems. Using a multi-seasonal, low trophic state mesocosm experiment, we investigated how higher water temperature and brownification affect plankton community composition, phenology, and functioning. We tested the hypothesis that higher water temperature (+3°C and brownification will, a cause plankton community composition to shift toward small sized phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, and, b extend the length of the growing season entailing higher phytoplankton production later in the season. We demonstrate that the 3°C increase of water temperature favored the growth of heterotrophic bacteria and small sized autotrophic picophytoplankton cells with significantly higher primary production during warmer fall periods. However, 3X darker water (effect of brownification caused no significant changes in the plankton community composition or functioning relative to control conditions. Our findings reveal that increased temperature change plankton community structure by favoring smaller sized species proliferation (autotrophic phytoplankton and small size cladocerans, and increase primary productivity and community turnover. Finally, results of this multi-seasonal experiment suggest that warming by 3°C in aquatic ecosystems of low trophic state may cause planktonic food web functioning to become more dominated by fast growing, r-trait species (i.e., small sizes and rapid development.

  10. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  11. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  12. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  13. Increase of volume swelling by a temperature gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herschbach, K.; Schneider, W.; Stober, T.

    1996-11-01

    The temperature gradient in the cladding of a Fast Reactor fuel pin leads to increased dilatation compared to material irradiations. Investigations of a specially designed fuel pin reached the conclusion that the cause is enhanced volume swelling. It is induced by He-bubbles, which migrate upwards the temperature gradient and coalesce. The critical size of nuclei for void swelling is thus reached much faster. Consequently, the p in deformation is larger than expected from materials irradiations, in the present case (DIN 1.4981 sa) by about 50%. (orig.) [de

  14. Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics

    2001-07-01

    The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  15. Increase of COP for heat transformer in water purification systems. Part I - Increasing heat source temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siqueiros, J.; Romero, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The integration of a water purification system in a heat transformer allows a fraction of heat obtained by the heat transformer to be recycled, increasing the heat source temperature. Consequently, the evaporator and generator temperatures are also increased. For any operating conditions, keeping the condenser and absorber temperatures and also the heat load to the evaporator and generator, a higher value of COP is obtained when only the evaporator and generator temperatures are increased. Simulation with proven software compares the performance of the modeling of an absorption heat transformer for water purification (AHTWP) operating with water/lithium bromide, as the working fluid-absorbent pair. Plots of enthalpy-based coefficients of performance (COP ET ) and the increase in the coefficient of performance (COP) are shown against absorber temperature for several thermodynamic operating conditions. The results showed that proposed (AHTWP) system is capable of increasing the original value of COP ET more than 120%, by recycling part of the energy from a water purification system. The proposed system allows to increase COP values from any experimental data for water purification or any other distillation system integrated to a heat transformer, regardless of the actual COP value and any working fluid-absorbent pair

  16. Increased Risk of Drug-Induced Hyponatremia during High Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna K Jönsson

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To investigate the relationship between outdoor temperature in Sweden and the reporting of drug-induced hyponatremia to the Medical Products Agency (MPA. Methods: All individual adverse drug reactions (ADR reported to MPA from 1 January 2010 to 31 October 2013 of suspected drug-induced hyponatremia and random controls were identified. Reports where the ADR had been assessed as having at least a possible relation to the suspected drug were included. Information on administered drugs, onset date, causality assessment, sodium levels, and the geographical origin of the reports was extracted. A case-crossover design was used to ascertain the association between heat exposure and drug-induced hyponatremia at the individual level, while linear regression was used to study its relationship to sodium concentration in blood. Temperature exposure data were obtained from the nearest observation station to the reported cases. Results: During the study period, 280 reports of hyponatremia were identified. More cases of drug-induced hyponatremia were reported in the warmer season, with a peak in June, while other ADRs showed an opposite annual pattern. The distributed lag non-linear model indicated an increasing odds ratio (OR with increasing temperature in the warm season with a highest odds ratio, with delays of 1–5 days after heat exposure. A cumulative OR for a lag time of 1 to 3 days was estimated at 2.21 at an average daily temperature of 20 °C. The change in sodium per 1 °C increase in temperature was estimated to be −0.37 mmol/L (95% CI: −0.02, −0.72. Conclusions: Warm weather appears to increase the risk of drug-induced hyponatremia

  17. Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2015-08-01

    We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

  18. BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN INCREASING GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    NABABAN, TONGAM SIHOL

    2014-01-01

    Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index or the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) In 2013 positioned Indonesia at ranked 76 of 118 countries. Compared with the ASEAN countries, the position are still far below Singapore (13), and still below Malaysia (57), Brunei Darussalam (58), Thailand (65). This fact shows that Indonesia has not been optimal in building its entrepreneurial yet. To enhance the development of entrepreneurship, the Indonesian government has launched a...

  19. Enhanced sludge reduction in septic tanks by increasing temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pussayanavin, Tatchai; Koottatep, Thammarat; Eamrat, Rawintra; Polprasert, Chongrak

    2015-01-01

    Septic tanks in most developing countries are constructed without drainage trenches or leaching fields to treat toilet wastewater and /or grey water. Due to the short hydraulic retention time, effluents of these septic tanks are still highly polluted, and there is usually high accumulation of septic tank sludge or septage containing high levels of organics and pathogens that requires frequent desludging and subsequent treatment. This study aimed to reduce sludge accumulation in septic tanks by increasing temperatures of the septic tank content. An experimental study employing two laboratory-scale septic tanks fed with diluted septage and operating at temperatures of 40 and 30°C was conducted. At steady-state conditions, there were more methanogenic activities occurring in the sludge layer of the septic tank operating at the temperature of 40°C, resulting in less total volatile solids (TVS) or sludge accumulation and more methane (CH4) production than in the unit operating at 30°C. Molecular analysis found more abundance and diversity of methanogenic microorganisms in the septic tank sludge operating at 40°C than at 30°C. The reduced TVS accumulation in the 40°C septic tank would lengthen the period of septage removal, resulting in a cost-saving in desluging and septage treatment. Cost-benefit analysis of increasing temperatures in septic tanks was discussed.

  20. Theoretical modeling of critical temperature increase in metamaterial superconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolyaninov, Igor; Smolyaninova, Vera

    Recent experiments have demonstrated that the metamaterial approach is capable of drastic increase of the critical temperature Tc of epsilon near zero (ENZ) metamaterial superconductors. For example, tripling of the critical temperature has been observed in Al-Al2O3 ENZ core-shell metamaterials. Here, we perform theoretical modelling of Tc increase in metamaterial superconductors based on the Maxwell-Garnett approximation of their dielectric response function. Good agreement is demonstrated between theoretical modelling and experimental results in both aluminum and tin-based metamaterials. Taking advantage of the demonstrated success of this model, the critical temperature of hypothetic niobium, MgB2 and H2S-based metamaterial superconductors is evaluated. The MgB2-based metamaterial superconductors are projected to reach the liquid nitrogen temperature range. In the case of an H2S-based metamaterial Tc appears to reach 250 K. This work was supported in part by NSF Grant DMR-1104676 and the School of Emerging Technologies at Towson University.

  1. Increase of body surface temperature and blood flow by theanine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Takeo; Noguchi, Kenichi; Ando, Satoshi

    2002-01-01

    Suntheanine (Taiyo Kagaku Co.: Theanine) is the trade name for L-theanine which is a unique amino acid found almost solely in tea plants, responsible for the exotictaste of green tea. We investigated the effects of relate to relaxation, improves the taste of processed foods, radiation sensitization, and increase of body surface temperature in vivo study. The results of the present study confirmed, (1) Suntheanine is incorporated into the brain and induces the emission of α -waves an induced of relaxation. (2) Body surface temperature and blood flow on skin were increased after administration of Suntheanine. (3) There was effects of radiation sensitization in whole body irradiation of X-rays after Suntheanine IP injection on C3H mice. (4) Acute toxicity, subacute toxicity and mutagen testconfirm the safety Suntheanine in this study

  2. Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, P.; Moseley, C.; Härter, Jan Olaf Mirko

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation changes can affect society more directly than variations in most other meteorological observables, but precipitation is difficult to characterize because of fluctuations on nearly all temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the intensity of extreme precipitation rises markedly...... at higher temperature, faster than the rate of increase in the atmosphere's water-holding capacity, termed the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. Invigoration of convective precipitation (such as thunderstorms) has been favoured over a rise in stratiform precipitation (such as large-scale frontal precipitation......) as a cause for this increase , but the relative contributions of these two types of precipitation have been difficult to disentangle. Here we combine large data sets from radar measurements and rain gauges over Germany with corresponding synoptic observations and temperature records, and separate convective...

  3. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  4. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  5. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  6. Globalization Then and Now: Increasing Scale Reduces Local Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph A. Tainter

    2006-01-01

    One consequence of globalization is that parts of the world that were once remote and minimally influenced by broader political and economic developments now find themselves profoundly affected by forces beyond their comprehension. Communities that were once self-sufficient and resilient come to depend on larger systems, no longer control their own destinies, and...

  7. rapid increase in precaution The global financial crisis: origin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2010-05-01

    May 1, 2010 ... provoked a global flight on quality, caused firms to cut back on ... despite coordinated easing of monetary policy by governments and trillions ... indicated in the scope of the study, the discussions will be based on financial .... financial investors in decision making, which would overvalue asset prices in.

  8. Towards Increased Engagement of Geoscientists in Global Development Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geoscientists have the potential to make a significant contribution to tackling some of the major socio-environmental challenges of today, including extreme poverty, sustainable development, disaster risk reduction and climate change. This presentation explores the importance and social responsibility of geoscientists to engage in such work through understanding and supporting key global development frameworks. During 2015 the international community agreed three important agendas for change. Each framework relates to the intersection of environmental processes with human activities and behaviours, addressing significant challenges affecting society. The frameworks are (i) the UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, (ii) the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, and (iii) subject to final confirmation at the time of writing, an agreement on climate change at the Paris Conference of the Parties - COP21. The UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development, for example, includes 17 goals aiming to end extreme poverty, fight inequality and ensure environmental sustainability. Specific goals relate to clean water and sanitation, clean and affordable energy, the development of resilient infrastructure, and the need for climate action. Given this context, here (i) a synthesis is presented of the role of geoscience in successfully achieving these major global development frameworks agreed in 2015, (ii) the ethical and social understanding that underpins effective engagement by geoscientists in the science-policy-practice interface is discussed, and (iii) this required ethical understanding is placed into the context of geoscience training and development needs. This approach demonstrates the importance of geoscientists from across all sectors and specialisms, engaging in the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of global development frameworks. It highlights the importance of a greater awareness and consideration of our ethical responsibilities in

  9. Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

  10. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  11. Human preference and acceptance of increased air velocity to offset warm sensation at increased room temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattarin, Giulio; Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    . The present climatic chamber study examined energy performance and achievable thermal comfort of traditional and bladeless desk fans. Different effects of mechanical and simulated-natural airflow patterns were also investigated. 32 Scandinavians, performing office activities and wearing light clothes , were......Previous studies have demonstrated that in summertime increased air velocities can compensate for higher room temperatures to achieve comfortable conditions. In order to increase air movement, windows opening, ceiling or desk fans can be used at the expense of relatively low energy consumption...... exposed to a increased air movement generated by a personal desk fan. The subjects could continuously regulate the fans under three fixed environmental conditions (operative temperatures equal to 26 °C, 28 °C, or 30 °C, and same absolute humidity 12.2 g/m3). The experimental study showed that increased...

  12. Human preference and acceptance of increased air velocity to offset warm sensation at increased room temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Cattarin, Giulio; Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that in summertime increased air velocities can compensate for higher room temperatures to achieve comfortable conditions. In order to increase air movement, windows opening, ceiling or desk fans can be used at the expense of relatively low energy consumption. The present climatic chamber study examined energy performance and achievable thermal comfort of traditional and bladeless desk fans. Different effects of mechanical and simulated-natural airflow patte...

  13. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  14. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  15. Responding to bioterror concerns by increasing milk pasteurization temperature would increase estimated annual deaths from listeriosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasiewicz, Matthew J; Martin, Nicole; Laue, Shelley; Gröhn, Yrjo T; Boor, Kathryn J; Wiedmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    In a 2005 analysis of a potential bioterror attack on the food supply involving a botulinum toxin release into the milk supply, the authors recommended adopting a toxin inactivation step during milk processing. In response, some dairy processors increased the times and temperatures of pasteurization well above the legal minimum for high temperature, short time pasteurization (72 °C for 15 s), with unknown implications for public health. The present study was conducted to determine whether an increase in high temperature, short time pasteurization temperature would affect the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, a potentially lethal foodborne pathogen normally eliminated with proper pasteurization but of concern when milk is contaminated postpasteurization. L. monocytogenes growth during refrigerated storage was higher in milk pasteurized at 82 °C than in milk pasteurized at 72 °C. Specifically, the time lag before exponential growth was decreased and the maximum population density was increased. The public health impact of this change in pasteurization was evaluated using a quantitative microbial risk assessment of deaths from listeriosis attributable to consumption of pasteurized fluid milk that was contaminated postprocessing. Conservative estimates of the effect of pasteurizing all fluid milk at 82 °C rather than 72 °C are that annual listeriosis deaths from consumption of this milk would increase from 18 to 670, a 38-fold increase (8.7- to 96-fold increase, 5th and 95th percentiles). These results exemplify a situation in which response to a rare bioterror threat may have the unintended consequence of putting the public at increased risk of a known, yet severe harm and illustrate the need for a paradigm shift toward multioutcome risk benefit analyses when proposing changes to established food safety practices.

  16. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?

    OpenAIRE

    Berge, Travis

    2012-01-01

    The past 30 years have been witness to an inexorable change in the degree to which economies are connected internationally. At the same time, the 2007-2008 recession was the first ‘global recession’ in decades. This article explores how international trade and cross-border holdings financial assets impact the synchronization of business cycles internationally. The paper begins by producing chronologies of business cycle turning points for a group of 32 major economies covering 40 years of his...

  17. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-04

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

  18. Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

    2017-12-01

    In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

  19. Hiatus in global warming - example of water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge (Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ducić Vladan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007

  20. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  1. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  2. Internally generated natural variability of global-mean temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative frequency-domain and time-domain estimates are made of an important aspect of natural variability of global-mean temperatures, namely, passive internal variability resulting from the modulation of atmospheric variability by the ocean. The results are derived using an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance climate model. In the frequency domain, analytical spectral results show a transition from a high-frequency region in which the response is determined by the mixed-layer heat capacity and is independent of the climate sensitivity (time scales less than around 10 years), to a low-frequency region in which the response depends only on the climate sensitivity. In the former region the spectral power is proportional to f -2 , where f is the frequency, while in the latter the power is independent of frequency. The range of validity of these results depends on the components of the climate system that are included in the model. In this case these restrict the low-frequency results to time scales less than about 1,000 years. A qualitative extrapolation is presented in an attempt to explain the observed low-frequency power spectra from deep-sea-core δ 18 O time series. The spectral results are also used to estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean as a function of frequency. At low frequencies, this can range up to 50 times greater than the heat capacity of the mixed layer. Results in the time domain are obtained by solving the model equations numerically

  3. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  5. MEMBANGUN SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP UNTUK MENINGKATKAN DAYA SAING GLOBAL (BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN INCREASING GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS)

    OpenAIRE

    NABABAN, TONGAM SIHOL

    2014-01-01

    Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index or the Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index (GEDI) In 2013 positioned Indonesia at ranked 76 of 118 countries. Compared with the ASEAN countries, the position are still far below Singapore (13), and still below Malaysia (57), Brunei Darussalam (58), Thailand (65). This fact shows that Indonesia has not been optimal in building its entrepreneurial yet. To enhance the development of entrepreneurship, the Indonesian government has launched ...

  6. On the influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varonov, Albert; Shopov, Yavor

    2014-01-01

    Using statistical analysis, correlation between the variations of the total solar irradiance and of the annual-mean land temperatures was found. An unknown time lag between both data sets was expected to be present due to the complexity of the Earth’s climate system leading to a delayed response to changes in influencing factors. We found the best correlation with coefficient over 90% for a 14-year shift of the annual mean land temperature record ahead with data until 1970, while the same comparison with data until 2006 yields 61% correlation. These results show substantially higher influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperatures until 1970. The decline of this influence during the last 40 years could be attributed to the increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Key words: total solar irradiance, solar variations, solar forcing, climate change

  7. Modeling Air Temperature/Water Temperature Relations Along a Small Mountain Stream Under Increasing Urban Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedders, E. R.; Anderson, W. P., Jr.; Hengst, A. M.; Gu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Boone Creek is a headwater stream of low to moderate gradient located in Boone, North Carolina, USA. Total impervious surface coverage in the 5.2 km2 catchment drained by the 1.9 km study reach increases from 13.4% in the upstream half of the reach to 24.3% in the downstream half. Other markers of urbanization, including culverting, lack of riparian shade vegetation, and bank armoring also increase downstream. Previous studies have shown the stream to be prone to temperature surges on short timescales (minutes to hours) caused by summer runoff from the urban hardscaping. This study investigates the effects of urbanization on the stream's thermal regime at daily to yearly timescales. To do this, we developed an analytical model of daily average stream temperatures based on daily average air temperatures. We utilized a two-part model comprising annual and biannual components and a daily component consisting of a 3rd-order Markov process in order to fit the thermal dynamics of our small, gaining stream. Optimizing this model at each of our study sites in each studied year (78 total site-years of data) yielded annual thermal exchange coefficients (K) for each site. These K values quantify the strength of the relationship between stream and air temperature, or inverse thermal stability. In a uniform, pristine catchment environment, K values are expected to decrease downstream as the stream gains discharge volume and, therefore, thermal inertia. Interannual average K values for our study reach, however, show an overall increase from 0.112 furthest upstream to 0.149 furthest downstream, despite a near doubling of stream discharge between these monitoring points. K values increase only slightly in the upstream, less urban, half of the reach. A line of best fit through these points on a plot of reach distance versus K value has a slope of 2E-6. But the K values of downstream, more urbanized sites increase at a rate of 2E-5 per meter of reach distance, an order of magnitude

  8. Carbon inventories and atmospheric temperatures: A global and regional perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    stream_size 3 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  9. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly Temperature, Version 4 (BETA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Only available as BETA release. The GHCN-Monthly Temperature Version 4 dataset consists of monthly mean temperature - both raw and bias corrected data. A full...

  10. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  11. Soil warming increases metabolic quotients of soil microorganisms without changes in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marañón-Jiménez, Sara; Soong, Jenniffer L.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Dauwe, Steven; Fransen, Erik; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-04-01

    Increasing temperatures can accelerate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, potentially inducing climate change feedbacks. Alterations to the temperature sensitivity and metabolic pathways of soil microorganisms in response to soil warming can play a key role in these soil carbon (C) losses. Here, we present results of an incubation experiment using soils from a geothermal gradient in Iceland that have been subjected to different intensities of soil warming (+0, +1, +3, +5, +10 and +20 °C above ambient) over seven years. We hypothesized that 7 years of soil warming would led to a depletion of labile organic substrates, with a subsequent decrease of the "apparent" temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. Associated to this C limitation and more sub-optimal conditions for microbial growth, we also hypothesized increased microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass), which is associated with increases in the relative amount of C invested into catabolic pathways along the warming gradient. Soil respiration and basal respiration rates decreased with soil warming intensity, in parallel with a decline in soil C availability. Contrasting to our first hypothesis, we did not detect changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration with soil warming or on the availability of nutrients and of labile C substrates at the time of incubation. However, in agreement to our second hypothesis, microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass) increased at warmer temperatures, while the C retained in biomass decreased as substrate became limiting. Long-term (7 years) temperature increases thus triggered a change in the metabolic functioning of the soil microbial communities towards increasing energy costs for maintenance or resource acquisition, thereby lowering the capacity of C retention and stabilization of warmed soils. These results highlight the need

  12. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  13. The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jackson Davis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature

  14. Global variation in the cost of increasing ecosystem carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjavaara, Markku; Kanninen, Markku; Gordillo, Harold; Koskinen, Joni; Kukkonen, Markus; Käyhkö, Niina; Larson, Anne M.; Wunder, Sven

    2018-01-01

    Slowing the reduction, or increasing the accumulation, of organic carbon stored in biomass and soils has been suggested as a potentially rapid and cost-effective method to reduce the rate of atmospheric carbon increase1. The costs of mitigating climate change by increasing ecosystem carbon relative to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario has been quantified in numerous studies, but results have been contradictory, as both methodological issues and substance differences cause variability2. Here we show, based on 77 standardized face-to-face interviews of local experts with the best possible knowledge of local land-use economics and sociopolitical context in ten landscapes around the globe, that the estimated cost of increasing ecosystem carbon varied vastly and was perceived to be 16-27 times cheaper in two Indonesian landscapes dominated by peatlands compared with the average of the eight other landscapes. Hence, if reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and other land-use mitigation efforts are to be distributed evenly across forested countries, for example, for the sake of international equity, their overall effectiveness would be dramatically lower than for a cost-minimizing distribution.

  15. Effects of Ocean Acidification and Temperature Increases on the Photosynthesis of Tropical Reef Calcified Macroalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherner, Fernando; Pereira, Cristiano Macedo; Duarte, Gustavo; Horta, Paulo Antunes; E Castro, Clovis Barreira; Barufi, José Bonomi; Pereira, Sonia Maria Barreto

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a global phenomenon that is considered an important threat to marine ecosystems. Ocean acidification and increased seawater temperatures are among the consequences of this phenomenon. The comprehension of the effects of these alterations on marine organisms, in particular on calcified macroalgae, is still modest despite its great importance. There are evidences that macroalgae inhabiting highly variable environments are relatively resilient to such changes. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate experimentally the effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and temperature rises on the photosynthesis of calcified macroalgae inhabiting the intertidal region, a highly variable environment. The experiments were performed in a reef mesocosm in a tropical region on the Brazilian coast, using three species of frondose calcifying macroalgae (Halimeda cuneata, Padina gymnospora, and Tricleocarpa cylindrica) and crustose coralline algae. The acidification experiment consisted of three treatments with pH levels below those occurring in the region (-0.3, -0.6, -0.9). For the temperature experiment, three temperature levels above those occurring naturally in the region (+1, +2, +4°C) were determined. The results of the acidification experiment indicate an increase on the optimum quantum yield by T. cylindrica and a decline of this parameter by coralline algae, although both only occurred at the extreme acidification treatment (-0.9). The energy dissipation mechanisms of these algae were also altered at this extreme condition. Significant effects of the temperature experiment were limited to an enhancement of the photosynthetic performance by H. cuneata although only at a modest temperature increase (+1°C). In general, the results indicate a possible photosynthetic adaptation and/or acclimation of the studied macroalgae to the expected future ocean acidification and temperature rises, as separate factors. Such relative resilience may be a result of the

  16. Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

    2016-02-01

    We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  17. Microturbogas cogeneration systems for distributed generation: Effects of ambient temperature on global performance and components’ behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caresana, F.; Pelagalli, L.; Comodi, G.; Renzi, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Electrical power reduces with temperature, heat recovery remains almost constant. • Thermal-to-electrical power ratio increases with ambient temperature. • Not only the density of sucked air decreases but also its volumetric flow. • Putting a limit to shaft speed causes TIT to decrease with ambient temperature. • Power reduction with ambient temperature more than doubles that of great GTs. - Abstract: Microturbines (MGTs) are a relatively new technology that is currently attracting a lot of interest in the distributed generation market. Particularly interesting is their use as backup source for integrating photovoltaic panels or/and wind turbines in hybrid systems. In this case the sensitivity to ambient conditions of the MGT adds to that of the renewables and the knowledge of the effects of ambient conditions on its performance becomes a key subject both for the sizing of the energy system and for its optimal dynamic control. Although the dependence of medium/large gas turbines performance on atmospheric conditions is well known and documented in literature, there are very limited reports available on MGTs and they regard only global parameters. The paper aims at filling this lack of information by analyzing the ambient temperature effect on the global performance of an MGT in cogeneration arrangement and by entering in detail into its machines’ behavior. A simulation code, tuned on experimental data, is used for this purpose. Starting from the nominal ISO conditions, electrical power output is shown to decrease with ambient temperature at a rate of about 1.22%/°C, due to a reduction of both air density and volumetric flow. Meanwhile, thermal to electrical power ratio increases at a rate of about 1.30%/°C. As temperature increases compressor delivers less air at a lower pressure, and the turbine expansion ratio and mass flow reduce accordingly. With the in-use control system the turbine inlet temperature reduces at a rate of 0.07%/

  18. Global attractors for the coupled suspension bridge system with temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dell'Oro, Filippo; Giorgi, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 4 (2016), s. 864-875 ISSN 0170-4214 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : absorbing set * coupled bridge system * global attractor Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mma.3526/abstract

  19. A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukicevic, Tomislava; Schimel, David

    2001-01-01

    The observed interannual variability of atmospheric CO 2 reflects short-term variability in sources and sinks of CO 2 . Analyses using 13 C and O 2 suggest that much of the observed interannual variability is due to changes in terrestrial CO 2 exchange. First principles, empirical correlations and process models suggest a link between climate variation and net ecosystem exchange, but the scaling of ecological process studies to the globe is notoriously difficult. We sought to identify a component of global CO 2 exchange that varied coherently with land temperature anomalies using an inverse modeling approach. We developed a family of simplified spatially aggregated ecosystem models (designated K-model versions) consisting of five compartments: atmospheric CO 2 , live vegetation, litter, and two soil pools that differ in turnover times. The pools represent cumulative differences from mean storage due to temperature variability and can thus have positive or negative values. Uptake and respiration of CO 2 are assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. One model version includes a simple representation of the nitrogen cycle in which changes in the litter and soil carbon pools result in stoichiometric release of plant-available nitrogen, the other omits the nitrogen feedback. The model parameters were estimated by inversion of the model against global temperature and CO 2 anomaly data using the variational method. We found that the temperature sensitivity of carbon uptake (NPP) was less than that of respiration in all model versions. Analyses of model and data also showed that temperature anomalies trigger ecosystem changes on multiple, lagged time-scales. Other recent studies have suggested a more active land biosphere at Northern latitudes in response to warming and longer growing seasons. Our results indicate that warming should increase NPP, consistent with this theory, but that respiration should increase more than NPP, leading to decreased or negative NEP. A

  20. Increasing temperature causes flowering onset time changes of alpine ginger Roscoea in the Central Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmalingam Mohandass

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent herbarium-based phenology assessments of many plant species have found significant responses to global climate change over the previous century. In this study, we investigate how the flowering phenology of three alpine ginger Roscoea species responses to climate change over the century from 1913 to 2011, by comparing between herbarium-based phenology records and direct flowering observations. According to the observations, flowering onset of the three alpine ginger species occurred either 22 days earlier or was delayed by 8–30 days when comparing the mean peak flowering date between herbarium-based phenology records and direct flowering observations. It is likely that this significant change in flowering onset is due to increased annual minimum and maximum temperatures and mean annual temperature by about 0.053°C per year. Our results also show that flowering time changes occurred due to an increasing winter–spring minimum temperature and monsoon minimum temperature, suggesting that these Roscoea species respond greatly to climate warming resulting in changes on flowering times.

  1. Attribution of atmospheric CO2 and temperature increases to regions: importance of preindustrial land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pongratz, Julia; Caldeira, Ken

    2012-01-01

    The historical contribution of each country to today’s observed atmospheric CO 2 excess and higher temperatures has become a basis for discussions around burden-sharing of greenhouse gas reduction commitments in political negotiations. However, the accounting methods have considered greenhouse gas emissions only during the industrial era, neglecting the fact that land use changes (LUC) have caused emissions long before the Industrial Revolution. Here, we hypothesize that considering preindustrial LUC affects the attribution because the geographic pattern of preindustrial LUC emissions differs significantly from that of industrial-era emissions and because preindustrial emissions have legacy effects on today’s atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and temperatures. We test this hypothesis by estimating CO 2 and temperature increases based on carbon cycle simulations of the last millennium. We find that accounting for preindustrial LUC emissions results in a shift of attribution of global temperature increase from the industrialized countries to less industrialized countries, in particular South Asia and China, by up to 2–3%, a level that may be relevant for political discussions. While further studies are needed to span the range of plausible quantifications, our study demonstrates the importance of including preindustrial emissions for the most scientifically defensible attribution. (letter)

  2. The Effect of Increased Temperature on Flowering Behaviour of Saffron (Crocus sativus L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Koocheki

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Flowering in saffron requires a period of incubation at high temperatures for flower differentiation followed by a period of low temperatures for flower emergence. Global warming could adversely affect the flowering of saffron because of its high sensitivity to temperature. Flowering behaviour of saffron in response to rising temperature was studied in an experiment conducted in controlled environment. Corms with identical sizes were collected form green or fully withered field grown plants and sown in plastic pots. Pots were incubated in 25, 27 and 30 °C for 70, 90 and 120 days. By the end of each incubation period, pots incubated in 25, 27 and 30 °C were transferred to 17, 19 and 21 °C, respectively. Days to flowering, development rate and growth characteristics of saffron were measured in alternative temperature regimes of 25/17, 27/19 and 30/21 °C in combination with 3 incubation periods and in 3 replications. The results indicated that increasing incubation temperature up to 27 °C had no significant effects on saffron flowering behaviour however, no flower was appeared from corms incubated in 30°C. Increased duration of incubation period had adverse effects on flower emergence and corms incubated for 120 days were only flowered in 27/19 °C temperature regime. The optimal flowering response and the highest number of vegetative buds was obtained when 90 days incubation period at 27 °C was followed by a period for flower emergence at 17°C. Corms lifted from green or withered plants showed similar response to temperature regimes and incubation periods. However, in average duration of sowing to flowering was 5 days longer in corms lifted from green plants. Comparing the results of this research with daily temperature in the main saffron production areas of Khorasan provinces showed that increasing mean daily temperature by 2 °C during summer and autumn results in a considerable delay in flowering of saffron.

  3. Increase of ozone concentrations, its temperature sensitivity and the precursor factor in South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Lee

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Concerns have been raised about the possible connections between the local and regional photochemical problem and global warming. The current study assesses the trend of ozone in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta (PRD in South China and investigates the interannual changes of sensitivity of ozone to air temperature, as well as the trends in regional precursors. Results reveal, at the three monitoring sites from the mid-1990s to 2010, an increase in the mean ozone concentrations from 1.0 to 1.6 µg m−3 per year. The increase occurred in all seasons, with the highest rate in autumn. This is consistent with trends and temperature anomalies in the region. The increase in the sensitivity of ozone to temperature is clearly evident from the correlation between ozone (OMI [Ozone Monitoring Instrument] column amount and surface air temperature (from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder displayed in the correlation maps for the PRD during the prominently high ozone period of July–September. It is observed to have increased from 2005 to 2010, the latter being the hottest year on record globally. To verify this temporal change in sensitivity, the ground-level trends of correlation coefficients/regression slopes are analysed. As expected, results reveal a statistically significant upward trend over a 14-year period (1997–2010. While the correlation revealed in the correlation maps is in agreement with the corresponding OMI ozone maps when juxtaposed, temperature sensitivity of surface ozone also shows an association with ozone concentration, with R=0.5. These characteristics of ozone sensitivity are believed to have adverse implications for the region. As shown by ground measurements and/or satellite analyses, the decrease in nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx in Hong Kong is not statistically significant while NO2 of the PRD has only very slightly changed. However, carbon dioxide has remarkably declined in the whole region. While these observations concerning

  4. THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE INCREASE OF THE WORLD OCEAN’S TEMPERATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Perticas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental pollution represents one of the problems that humanity is facing right now, problems that create a series of economic, ecologic and social consequences. This paper wishes to identify by presenting concrete data, some of the negative effects that occurred as a result of the increase of pollution on global scale, for example like the rise of global temperature. Starting with the industrial revolution but especially with the increase of the population’s needs, desires, interests that occurred during the last decades, environmental pollution intensified to an extent that we could even consider alarming. A main effect which can be easily observed by each and every person without the need to perform measurements, is the climate warming which has a series of consequences, like for example: drought, natural disasters, decrease in agricultural production, fires (especially wildfires which reduce the population of wild animals, etc. So the effects of global warming are not just ecologic but also economic and social. Another aspect analyzed in this paper is the rise of the seas’ and oceans’ temperature which inevitably results in the decrease of the population of fish and aquatic animals. The melting of glaciers is another negative effect of the climate warming which is discussed in this paper, effect which is responsible for numerous floods that result from the rise of the sea levels causing numerous damages, the most affected people being those living in the vicinity of waters. During floods, phenomenon which occurs more and more often, drainage channels are overused many times not being able to handle the huge quantities of water, thus favoring the multiplication and spreading of rodents. There are evidences showing that the number of cases of diseases transmitted by rodents increases during natural disasters, which occur more and more often during the last decades.

  5. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

    2014-01-01

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

  6. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

    2014-11-25

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  7. Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Matthew; Belcher, Claire M; Killi, Dilek; Dewhirst, Rebecca A; Materassi, Alessandro; Raschi, Antonio; Centritto, Mauro

    2018-04-18

    Global warming events have coincided with turnover of plant species at intervals in Earth history. As mean global temperatures rise, the number, frequency and duration of heat-waves will increase. Ginkgo biloba was grown under controlled climatic conditions at two different day/night temperature regimes (25/20 °C and 35/30 °C) to investigate the impact of heat stress. Photosynthetic CO 2 -uptake and electron transport were reduced at the higher temperature, while rates of respiration were greater; suggesting that the carbon balance of the leaves was adversely affected. Stomatal conductance and the potential for evaporative cooling of the leaves was reduced at the higher temperature. Furthermore, the capacity of the leaves to dissipate excess energy was also reduced at 35/30 °C, indicating that photo-protective mechanisms were no longer functioning effectively. Leaf economics were adversely affected by heat stress, exhibiting an increase in leaf mass per area and leaf construction costs. This may be consistent with the selective pressures experienced by fossil Ginkgoales during intervals of global warming such as the Triassic - Jurassic boundary or Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The physiological and morphological responses of the G. biloba leaves were closely interrelated; these relationships may be used to infer the leaf economics and photosynthetic/stress physiology of fossil plants.

  8. Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

    2014-09-23

    Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

  9. Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and ... Surface air tempera- ture is one of the factors that influence monsoon variability. The distribution of surface air temper- ature over land and sea determines the locations ..... Asia, north Indian Ocean, northeast Russia and.

  10. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, E.; Pišoft, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2016), s. 231-249 ISSN 2190-4979 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atlantic multidecadal osciallation * pacific decadal oscillation * surface-temperature * 20th century reanalysis * southern-oscilation * internal variability * irradiance Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.635, year: 2016

  11. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  12. Enhanced Stability of a Protein with Increasing Temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Joachim Møllesøe; Kristensen, Søren M; Led, Jens J

    2010-01-01

    The unusual stability of a structured but locally flexible protein, human growth hormone (hGH) at pH 2.7, was investigated using the temperature dependence of the nanosecond-picosecond dynamics of the backbone amide groups obtained from (15)N NMR relaxation data. It is found that the flexibility ...

  13. Citrate increases glass transition temperature of vitrified sucrose preparations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kets, E.P.W.; Lipelaar, P.J.; Hoekstra, F.A.; Vromans, H.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of sodium citrate on the properties of dried amorphous sucrose glasses. Addition of sodium citrate to a sucrose solution followed by freeze-drying or convective drying resulted in a glass transition temperature (T-g) that was higher than the

  14. Neutrophil elastase-mediated increase in airway temperature during inflammation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Annika; Belaaouaj, Azzaq; Bissinger, Rosi

    2014-01-01

    in the exhaled air of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. To further test our hypothesis, a pouch inflammatory model using neutrophil elastase-deficient mice was employed. Next, the impact of temperature changes on the dominant CF pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa growth was tested by plating method and RNAseq. Results...

  15. NODC Standard Product: Global ocean temperature and salinity profiles (2 disc set) (NODC Accession 0098058)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of CD-ROMs contains global ocean temperature and salinity profiles derived from NODC archive data files. It includes oceanographic station (bottle) data,...

  16. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

    OpenAIRE

    Wilcox, C; Van Sebille, E; Hardesty, BD

    2015-01-01

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a rapidly emerging global environmental concern, with high concentrations (up to 580,000 pieces per km2) and a global distribution, driven by exponentially increasing production. Seabirds are particularly vulnerable to this type of pollution and are widely observed to ingest floating plastic. We used a mixture of literature surveys, oceanographic modeling, and ecological models to predict the risk of plastic ingestion to 186 seabird species globally. Impacts ...

  17. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

    2016-11-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Spatio-temporal interpolation of daily temperatures for global land areas at 1 km resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kilibarda, M.; Hengl, T.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Graler, B.; Pebesma, E.; Tadic, M.P.; Bajat, B.

    2014-01-01

    Combined Global Surface Summary of Day and European Climate Assessment and Dataset daily meteorological data sets (around 9000 stations) were used to build spatio-temporal geostatistical models and predict daily air temperature at ground resolution of 1km for the global land mass. Predictions in

  19. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  20. Increases in both acute and chronic temperature potentiate tocotrienol concentrations in wild barley at 'Evolution Canyon'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yu; Lansky, Ephraim; Traber, Maret; Nevo, Eviatar

    2013-09-01

    Biosynthesis of tocols (vitamin E isoforms) is linked to response to temperature in plants. 'Evolution Canyon', an ecogeographical microcosm extending over an average of 200 meters (range 100-400) wide area in the Carmel Mountains of northern Israel, has been suggested as a model for studying global warming. Both domestic (Hordeum vulgare) and wild (Hordeum spontaneum) barley compared with wheat, oat, corn, rice, and rye show high tocotrienol/tocopherol ratios. Therefore, we hypothesized that tocol distribution might change in response to global warming. α-, β-, γ-, and δ-tocopherol, and α-, β-, γ-, and δ-tocotrienol concentrations were measured in wild barley (H. spontaneum) seeds harvested from the xeric (African) and mesic (European) slopes of Evolution Canyon over a six-year period from 2005-2011. Additionally, we examined seeds from areas contiguous to and distant from the part of the Canyon severely burned during the Carmel Fire of December 2010. Increased α-tocotrienol (pslope in contrast to the cooler 'European' slope, and 3) to propinquity to the fire. The study illustrates the role of α-tocotrienol in both chronic and acute temperature adaptation in wild barley and suggests future research into thermoregulatory mechanisms in plants. Copyright © 2013 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

  1. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  2. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  3. Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

    2013-03-01

    There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it

  4. Cooler temperatures destabilize RNA interference and increase susceptibility of disease vector mosquitoes to viral infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zach N Adelman

    Full Text Available The impact of global climate change on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is the subject of extensive debate. The transmission of mosquito-borne viral diseases is particularly complex, with climatic variables directly affecting many parameters associated with the prevalence of disease vectors. While evidence shows that warmer temperatures often decrease the extrinsic incubation period of an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus, exposure to cooler temperatures often predisposes disease vector mosquitoes to higher infection rates. RNA interference (RNAi pathways are essential to antiviral immunity in the mosquito; however, few experiments have explored the effects of temperature on the RNAi machinery.We utilized transgenic "sensor" strains of Aedes aegypti to examine the role of temperature on RNA silencing. These "sensor" strains express EGFP only when RNAi is inhibited; for example, after knockdown of the effector proteins Dicer-2 (DCR-2 or Argonaute-2 (AGO-2. We observed an increase in EGFP expression in transgenic sensor mosquitoes reared at 18°C as compared with 28°C. Changes in expression were dependent on the presence of an inverted repeat with homology to a portion of the EGFP sequence, as transgenic strains lacking this sequence, the double stranded RNA (dsRNA trigger for RNAi, showed no change in EGFP expression when reared at 18°C. Sequencing small RNAs in sensor mosquitoes reared at low temperature revealed normal processing of dsRNA substrates, suggesting the observed deficiency in RNAi occurs downstream of DCR-2. Rearing at cooler temperatures also predisposed mosquitoes to higher levels of infection with both chikungunya and yellow fever viruses.This data suggest that microclimates, such as those present in mosquito breeding sites, as well as more general climactic variables may influence the dynamics of mosquito-borne viral diseases by affecting the antiviral immunity of disease vectors.

  5. The Major Challenges Facing Teacher Education in an Increasingly Global Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paese, Paul C.

    2008-01-01

    Central to schools of education are the professional preparation and development of future educators, who will be responsible for preparing citizens to function and live in a global community. Globalization and schooling have the potential to successfully or unsuccessfully affect the skills that students need to succeed in an increasingly global…

  6. Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

  7. Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Steinbrecht

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

  8. Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

    2015-01-01

    There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.

  9. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Lang, Johannes; Langset, Magdalene; Lescroël, Amélie; Lorentsen, Svein-Hâkon; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Mallory, Mark; Moe, Børge; Montevecchi, William A.; Monticelli, David; Mostello, Carolyn; Newell, Mark; Nicholson, Lisa; Nisbet, Ian; Olsson, Olof; Oro, Daniel; Pattison, Vivian; Poisbleau, Maud; Pyk, Tanya; Quintana, Flavio; Ramos, Jaime A.; Ramos, Raül; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Rodríguez, Cristina; Ryan, Peter; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Schmidt, Niels M.; Shannon, Paula; Sittler, Benoit; Southwell, Colin; Surman, Christopher; Svagelj, Walter S.; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Warzybok, Pete; Watanuki, Yutaka; Weimerskirch, Henri; Wilson, Peter R.; Wood, Andrew G.; Phillimore, Albert B.; Lewis, Sue

    2018-04-01

    Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr-1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days °C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.

  10. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  11. Perceived air quality, thermal comfort, and SBS symptoms at low air temperature and increased radiant temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toftum, Jørn; Reimann, Gregers Peter; Foldbjerg, P.

    2002-01-01

    source present at the low temperature. To maintain overall thermal neutrality, the low air temperature was partly compensated for by individually controlled radiant heating, and partly by allowing subjects to modify clothing insulation. A reduction of the air temperature from 23 deg.C to 18 deg.......C suggested an improvement of the perceived air quality, while no systematic effect on symptom intensity was observed. The overall indoor environment was evaluated equally acceptable at both temperatures due to local thermal discomfort at the low air temperature....

  12. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan

    2018-01-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role

  13. Increased recovery in dual temperature isotope exchange process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babcock, D.F.; Neill, J.S.

    1978-01-01

    The improvement comprises increasing the flow ratio of liquid with respect to gas within the upper portion of the first tower, wherein the liquid is enriched in the isotope, and within the lower portion of the second tower, wherein the liquid is depleted in the isotope each to a value of at least 5% above the corresponding flow ratio within the remaining lower portion of the first tower and the remaining upper portion of the second tower respectively. The increased flow ratios are provided by increasing the rate of liquid substance being fed to the first tower and withdrawing up to about 50% of the increased liquid substance flow from a location within the upper one-half of the first tower and reintroducing the withdrawn liquid at a location within the lower one-half portion of the second tower. (author)

  14. ATSR sea surface temperature data in a global analysis with TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data from the ERS 1 satellite mission are used in a global analysis of the surface temperature of the oceans. The data are the low resolution 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees average temperatures and cover about 24 months. At global scales a significant seasonal...... variability is found. On each of the hemispheres the surface temperatures reach their maximum after summer heating. The seasonal sea level variability, as observed from TOPEX/POSEIDON, reaches its maximum 1.1-1.4 months later....

  15. Global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brace, L.H.; Theis, R.F.; Hoegy, W.R.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamics Explorer-2 is permitting the first measurements of the global structure of the F-regions at very high levels of solar activity (S>200). Selected full orbits of Langmuir probe measurements of electron temperature, T/sub e/, and density, N/sub e/, are shown to illustrate this global structure and some of the ionospheric features that are the topic of other papers in this issue. The ionospheric thermal structure is of particular interest because T/sub e/ is a sensitive indicator of the coupling of magnetospheric energy into the upper atmosphere. A comparison of these heating effects with those observed at solar minimum shows that the magnetospheric sources are more important at solar maximum, as might have been expected. Heating at the cusp, the auroral oval and the plasma-pause is generally both greater and more variable. Electron cooling rate calculations employing low latitude measurements indicate that solar extreme ultraviolet heating of the F region at solar maximum is enhanced by a factor that is greater than the increase in solar flux. Some of this enhanced electron heating arises from the increase in electron heating efficiency at the higher N/sub e/ of solar maximum, but this appears insufficient to completely resolve the discrepancy

  16. Reproductive acclimation to increased water temperature in a tropical reef fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Donelson

    Full Text Available Understanding the capacity of organisms to cope with projected global warming through acclimation and adaptation is critical to predicting their likely future persistence. While recent research has shown that developmental acclimation of metabolic attributes to ocean warming is possible, our understanding of the plasticity of key fitness-associated traits, such as reproductive performance, is lacking. We show that while the reproductive ability of a tropical reef fish is highly sensitive to increases in water temperature, reproductive capacity at +1.5°C above present-day was improved to match fish maintained at present-day temperatures when fish complete their development at the higher temperature. However, reproductive acclimation was not observed in fish reared at +3.0°C warmer than present-day, suggesting limitations to the acclimation possible within one generation. Surprisingly, the improvements seen in reproduction were not predicted by the oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis. Specifically, pairs reared at +1.5°C, which showed the greatest capacity for reproductive acclimation, exhibited no acclimation of metabolic attributes. Conversely, pairs reared at +3.0°C, which exhibited acclimation in resting metabolic rate, demonstrated little capacity for reproductive acclimation. Our study suggests that understanding the acclimation capacity of reproductive performance will be critically important to predicting the impacts of climate change on biological systems.

  17. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  18. First evidence of immunomodulation in bivalves under seawater acidification and increased temperature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Matozzo

    Full Text Available Water acidification, temperature increases and changes in seawater salinity are predicted to occur in the near future. In such a global climate change (GCC scenario, there is growing concern for the health status of both wild and farmed organisms. Bivalve molluscs, an important component of coastal marine ecosystems, are at risk. At the immunological level, the ability of an organism to maintain its immunosurveillance unaltered under adverse environmental conditions may enhance its survival capability. To our knowledge, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing environmental parameters (as predicted in a GCC scenario on the immune responses of bivalves. In the present study, the effects of both decreased pH values and increased temperature on the important immune parameters of two bivalve species were evaluated for the first time. The clam Chamelea gallina and the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, widespread along the coast of the Northwestern Adriatic Sea, were chosen as model organisms. Bivalves were exposed for 7 days to three pH values (8.1, 7.7 and 7.4 at two temperatures (22 and 28°C. Three independent experiments were carried out at salinities of 28, 34 and 40 PSU. The total haemocyte count, Neutral Red uptake, haemolymph lysozyme activity and total protein levels were measured. The results obtained demonstrated that tested experimental conditions affected significantly most of the immune parameters measured in bivalves, even if the variation pattern of haemocyte responses was not always linear. Between the two species, C. gallina appeared more vulnerable to changing pH and temperature than M. galloprovincialis. Overall, this study demonstrated that climate changes can strongly affect haemocyte functionality in bivalves. However, further studies are needed to clarify better the mechanisms of action of changing environmental parameters, both individually and in combination, on bivalve haemocytes.

  19. Diffuse radiation increases global ecosystem-level water-use efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffat, A. M.; Reichstein, M.; Cescatti, A.; Knohl, A.; Zaehle, S.

    2012-12-01

    Current environmental changes lead not only to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and air temperature but also to changes in air pollution and thus the light quality of the solar radiation reaching the land-surface. While rising CO2 levels are thought to enhance photosynthesis and closure of stomata, thus leading to relative water savings, the effect of diffuse radiation on transpiration by plants is less clear. It has been speculated that the stimulation of photosynthesis by increased levels of diffuse light may be counteracted by higher transpiration and consequently water depletion and drought stress. Ultimately, in water co-limited systems, the overall effect of diffuse radiation will depend on the sensitivity of canopy transpiration versus photosynthesis to diffuse light, i.e. whether water-use efficiency changes with relative levels of diffuse light. Our study shows that water-use efficiency increases significantly with higher fractions of diffuse light. It uses the ecosystem-atmosphere gas-exchange observations obtained with the eddy covariance method at 29 flux tower sites. In contrast to previous global studies, the analysis is based directly on measurements of diffuse radiation. Its effect on water-use efficiency was derived by analyzing the multivariate response of carbon and water fluxes to radiation and air humidity using a purely empirical approach based on artificial neural networks. We infer that per unit change of diffuse fraction the water-use efficiency increases up to 40% depending on diffuse fraction levels and ecosystem type. Hence, in regions with increasing diffuse radiation positive effects on primary production are expected even under conditions where water is co-limiting productivity.

  20. Why Globally GDP, Trade, Profits, Wages, Employment Decrease and Why Poverty Increases?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Štrukelj

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to propose a scientific explanation ofwhy GDP, trade, profits, wages and employment have been globallydecreasing and why poverty has been globally increasing betweenthe 2nd quarter of 2008 and the 3rd quarter of 2009. I explainthese facts in a scientific manner, that is, by deriving thepresent state of the global economy (crisis from the principles ofthe present global economy (predominately organized in a capitalisticmanner. I therefore prove that the crisis necessarily followsfrom the way the present global economy functions. I arguethat the reason for the crisis is the fundamental contradiction betweenthe purpose of companies (increasing profits and necessaryways in which companies try to increase profits, and that theconsequences of this fundamental contradiction are triggered bya general lack of credits.

  1. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  2. Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

    2013-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

  4. Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

    The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

  5. Synchronous drought and flooding in southern Chinese Loess Plateau in phase with the variation of global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Kang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and flooding, usually occurring in the catchment scale, are the main natural threats to human livelihood due to the extreme variation of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales. Within the context of global warming, the risk of flood and drought tends to increase in different regions. Understanding the mechanism of the regional occurrence of flood and drought is of enormous importance for the predicting studies and taking corresponding measures. However, the instrumental records are too short to conduct a prediction. Here, we present a historical-archive-based high-resolution dataset of drought and flooding back to AD 1646 in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. This sequence, integrated with the modern meteorological observation data, shows that the frequency of drought and flooding in the study region is synchronous on a decadal scale, and they are in phase with the increase in both global and regional temperature. During the warm period, the ENSO activity was found to be increase, resulting in the anomaly distribution of precipitation in different seasons in southern Chinese Loess Plateau, which is the reason for the temperature dependence of flooding and drought in this region. If global temperature continues to rise in the future, the risk of both drought and flooding in the study area would also increase.

  6. Does a General Temperature-Dependent Q10 Model of Soil Respiration Exist at Biome and Global Scale?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hua CHEN; Han-Qin TIAN

    2005-01-01

    Soil respiration (SR) is commonly modeled by a Q10 (an indicator of temperature sensitivity)function in ecosystem models. Q10is usually treated as a constant of 2 in these models, although Q10 value of SR often decreases with increasing temperatures. It remains unclear whether a general temperaturedependent Q10 model of SR exists at biome and global scale. In this paper, we have compiled the long-term Q10 data of 38 SR studies ranging from the Boreal, Temperate, to Tropical/Subtropical biome on four continents.Our analysis indicated that the general temperature-dependent biome Q10 models of SR existed, especially in the Boreal and Temperate biomes. A single-exponential model was better than a simple linear model in fitting the average Q10 values at the biome scale. Average soil temperature is a better predictor of Q10 value than average air temperature in these models, especially in the Boreal biome. Soil temperature alone could explain about 50% of the Q10 variations in both the Boreal and Temperate biome single-exponential Q10 model. Q10 value of SR decreased with increasing soil temperature but at quite different rates among the three biome Q10 models. The k values (Q10 decay rate constants) were 0.09, 0.07, and 0.02/℃ in the Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical/Subtropical biome, respectively, suggesting that Q10 value is the most sensitive to soil temperature change in the Boreal biome, the second in the Temperate biome, and the least sensitive in the Tropical/Subtropical biome. This also indirectly confirms that acclimation of SR in many soil warming experiments probably occurs. The k value in the "global" single-exponential Q10 model which combined both the Boreal and Temperate biome data set was 0.08/℃. However, the global general temperature-dependent Q10model developed using the data sets of the three biomes is not adequate for predicting Q10 values of SR globally.The existence of the general temperature-dependent Q10 models of SR in the Boreal and

  7. Global ablation of the mitochondrial calcium uniporter increases glycolysis in cortical neurons subjected to energetic stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Matthew; Elustondo, Pia A; Warford, Jordan; Thirumaran, Aruloli; Pavlov, Evgeny V; Robertson, George S

    2017-08-01

    The effects of global mitochondrial calcium (Ca 2+ ) uniporter (MCU) deficiency on hypoxic-ischemic (HI) brain injury, neuronal Ca 2+ handling, bioenergetics and hypoxic preconditioning (HPC) were examined. Forebrain mitochondria isolated from global MCU nulls displayed markedly reduced Ca 2+ uptake and Ca 2+ -induced opening of the membrane permeability transition pore. Despite evidence that these effects should be neuroprotective, global MCU nulls and wild-type (WT) mice suffered comparable HI brain damage. Energetic stress enhanced glycolysis and depressed Complex I activity in global MCU null, relative to WT, cortical neurons. HI reduced forebrain NADH levels more in global MCU nulls than WT mice suggesting that increased glycolytic consumption of NADH suppressed Complex I activity. Compared to WT neurons, pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) was hyper-phosphorylated in MCU nulls at several sites that lower the supply of substrates for the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Elevation of cytosolic Ca 2+ with glutamate or ionomycin decreased PDH phosphorylation in MCU null neurons suggesting the use of alternative mitochondrial Ca 2+ transport. Under basal conditions, global MCU nulls showed similar increases of Ca 2+ handling genes in the hippocampus as WT mice subjected to HPC. We propose that long-term adaptations, common to HPC, in global MCU nulls compromise resistance to HI brain injury and disrupt HPC.

  8. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

  9. Multi-Temperature Zone, Droplet-based Microreactor for Increased Temperature Control in Nanoparticle Synthesis

    KAUST Repository

    Erdem, E. Yegâ n; Cheng, Jim C.; Doyle, Fiona M.; Pisano, Albert P.

    2013-01-01

    Microreactors are an emerging technology for the controlled synthesis of nanoparticles. The Multi-Temperature zone Microreactor (MTM) described in this work utilizes thermally isolated heated and cooled regions for the purpose of separating

  10. Increased Global Interaction Across Functional Brain Modules During Cognitive Emotion Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandl, Felix; Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Wohlschläger, Afra M; Riedl, Valentin; Meng, Chun; Sorg, Christian

    2017-07-13

    Cognitive emotion regulation (CER) enables humans to flexibly modulate their emotions. While local theories of CER neurobiology suggest interactions between specialized local brain circuits underlying CER, e.g., in subparts of amygdala and medial prefrontal cortices (mPFC), global theories hypothesize global interaction increases among larger functional brain modules comprising local circuits. We tested the global CER hypothesis using graph-based whole-brain network analysis of functional MRI data during aversive emotional processing with and without CER. During CER, global between-module interaction across stable functional network modules increased. Global interaction increase was particularly driven by subregions of amygdala and cuneus-nodes of highest nodal participation-that overlapped with CER-specific local activations, and by mPFC and posterior cingulate as relevant connector hubs. Results provide evidence for the global nature of human CER, complementing functional specialization of embedded local brain circuits during successful CER. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

    2016-01-01

    The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  12. Body temperature increases during pediatric full mouth rehabilitation surgery under general anesthesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Shan Chuang

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: Body temperature transiently increased during pediatric full mouth rehabilitation surgery. The increase in body temperature was associated with operation duration. The etiology is uncertain. Continuous body temperature monitoring and the application of both heating and cooling devices during pediatric full mouth rehabilitation surgery should be mandatory.

  13. Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

    2017-06-01

    The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

  14. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  15. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  16. GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Comiso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  17. Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...

  18. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2015-04-02

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  19. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  20. Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud Land Increasing Faster Than Climate Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, B.; McConnell, J. R.; Neumann, T. A.; Reijmer, C. H.; Chellman, N.; Sigl, M.; Kipfstuhl, S.

    2018-02-01

    East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer-term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long-term trend (+5.2 ± 3.7% decade-1) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1 ± 0.7°C decade-1). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML contribution to sea level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.

  1. The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

    2016-01-01

    Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Havlik, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2018-02-01

    Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and Ukraine are estimated and explicitly implemented in an economic agricultural sector model. We find that cereal (barley, corn, and wheat) production in Russia and Ukraine could increase by up to 64% in 2030 to 267 million tons, compared to a baseline scenario. Oilseeds (rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower) production could increase by 84% to 50 million tons, respectively. In comparison to the baseline, common net exports of Ukraine and Russia could increase by up to 86.3 million tons of cereals and 18.9 million tons of oilseeds in 2030, representing 4% and 3.6% of the global production of these crops, respectively. Furthermore, we find that production potentials due to intensification are ten times larger than potentials due to recultivation of abandoned land. Consequently, we also find stronger impacts from intensification at the global scale. A utilization of crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine could globally save up to 21 million hectares of cropland and reduce average global crop prices by more than 3%.

  3. Quality-controlled sea surface temperature, salinity and other measurements from the NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database (NCEI-TSG)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains global in-situ sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS) and other measurements from the NOAA NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database...

  4. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  5. Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

    2016-05-13

    Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5° × 5° grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) have increased monotonically by 0.22 °C/decade, which reflects well the elevated anthropogenic GHG effect. The warmest 5% of maximum temperature anomalies (the warmest deviation), however, display a significant oscillation following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a warming rate of 0.07 °C/decade from 1900 to 2013. The warmest (0.34 °C/decade) and coldest deviations (0.25 °C/decade) increased at much higher rates over the most recent decade than last century mean values, indicating the hiatus should not be interpreted as a general slowing of climate change. The significant oscillation of the warmest deviation provides an extension of previous study reporting no pause in the hottest temperature extremes since 1979, and first uncovers its increase from 1900 to 1939 and decrease from 1940 to 1969.

  6. Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji

    2015-01-01

    Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

  7. Multi-Temperature Zone, Droplet-based Microreactor for Increased Temperature Control in Nanoparticle Synthesis

    KAUST Repository

    Erdem, E. Yegân

    2013-12-12

    Microreactors are an emerging technology for the controlled synthesis of nanoparticles. The Multi-Temperature zone Microreactor (MTM) described in this work utilizes thermally isolated heated and cooled regions for the purpose of separating nucleation and growth processes as well as to provide a platform for a systematic study on the effect of reaction conditions on nanoparticle synthesis. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  9. Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 4 (2012), s. 1095-1107 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * polar vortex * climate indices * global temperature Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2012

  10. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

    2017-12-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.

  11. Response of Sphagnum species mixtures to increased temperature and nitrogen availability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breeuwer, A.J.G.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Berendse, F.; Gleichman, J.M.; Robroek, B.J.M.; Limpens, J.

    2009-01-01

    To predict the role of ombrotrophic bogs as carbon sinks in the future, it is crucial to understand how Sphagnum vegetation in bogs will respond to global change. We performed a greenhouse experiment to study the effects of two temperature treatments (17.5 and 21.7°C) and two N addition treatments

  12. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2018-01-01

    Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

  13. Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

  14. Increasingly Global: Combining an International Business Degree with a Post-Degree Designation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel; Terry, Andy; Vibhakar, Ashvin

    2006-01-01

    In the increasingly complex and competitive global marketplace, many students seek to gain multiple skills and credentials that can aid them in their career goals. One such career strategy weds a general overarching comprehensive degree with a specific and targeted skill set. This paper provides a viable curriculum path for students who seek…

  15. Increasing the Value of Agricultural Products in the Face of Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Paper examined the increasing value of agricultural products in the face of global economic recession in Anambra State. The paper revealed that Anambra State is endowed with human and natural resources and if properly harnessed, can go a long way in arresting the food insecurity in the State and alleviate the ...

  16. Implications of the global increase of diabetes for tuberculosis control and patient care.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruslami, R.; Aarnoutse, R.E.; Alisjahbana, B.; Ven, A.J.A.M. van der; Crevel, R. van

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To review the current knowledge about tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes, assessing the implication of the global increase of diabetes for TB control and patient care. METHODS: Systematic literature review. RESULTS: Using public databases, it can be estimated that 12.6% (95% CI 9.2-17.3%) of

  17. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5

  18. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  19. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-02-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  20. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend–dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  1. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  2. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  3. The global SMOS Level 3 daily soil moisture and brightness temperature maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Al Bitar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present the multi-orbit (MO surface soil moisture (SM and angle-binned brightness temperature (TB products for the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission based on a new multi-orbit algorithm. The Level 3 algorithm at CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS makes use of MO retrieval to enhance the robustness and quality of SM retrievals. The motivation of the approach is to make use of the longer temporal autocorrelation length of the vegetation optical depth (VOD compared to the corresponding SM autocorrelation in order to enhance the retrievals when an acquisition occurs at the border of the swath. The retrieval algorithm is implemented in a unique operational processor delivering multiple parameters (e.g. SM and VOD using multi-angular dual-polarisation TB from MO. A subsidiary angle-binned TB product is provided. In this study the Level 3 TB V310 product is showcased and compared to SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive TB. The Level 3 SM V300 product is compared to the single-orbit (SO retrievals from the Level 2 SM processor from ESA with aligned configuration. The advantages and drawbacks of the Level 3 SM product (L3SM are discussed. The comparison is done on a global scale between the two datasets and on the local scale with respect to in situ data from AMMA-CATCH and USDA ARS Watershed networks. The results obtained from the global analysis show that the MO implementation enhances the number of retrievals: up to 9 % over certain areas. The comparison with the in situ data shows that the increase in the number of retrievals does not come with a decrease in quality, but rather at the expense of an increased time lag in product availability from 6 h to 3.5 days, which can be a limiting factor for applications like flood forecast but reasonable for drought monitoring and climate change studies. The SMOS L3 soil moisture and L3 brightness temperature products are delivered using an

  4. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  6. The effect of air velocity on heat stress at increased air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, B.; Wang, Xiaoshuai; Zhang, Guoqiang

    Increased air velocity is a frequently used method to reduce heat stress of farm animals housed in warm conditions. The main reason why the method works is that higher air velocity increases the convective heat release from the animals. Convective heat release from the animals is strongly related...... to the temperature difference between the surfaces of animals and the surrounding air, and this temperature difference declines when the air temperature approaches the animal body temperature. Consequently it can it by expected that the effect of air velocity decreases at increased air temperature. The literature...... on farm animals in warm conditions includes several thermal indices which incorporate the effect of air velocities. But, surprisingly none of them predicts a decreased influence of air velocity when the air temperature approaches the animal body temperature. This study reviewed published investigations...

  7. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  8. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  9. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  10. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  11. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  12. GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  13. Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

    2014-12-01

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

  14. Increased Global Functional Connectivity Correlates with LSD-Induced Ego Dissolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Roseman, Leor; Kaelen, Mendel; Orban, Csaba; Muthukumaraswamy, Suresh D; Murphy, Kevin; Laufs, Helmut; Leech, Robert; McGonigle, John; Crossley, Nicolas; Bullmore, Edward; Williams, Tim; Bolstridge, Mark; Feilding, Amanda; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin

    2016-04-25

    Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a non-selective serotonin-receptor agonist that was first synthesized in 1938 and identified as (potently) psychoactive in 1943. Psychedelics have been used by indigenous cultures for millennia [1]; however, because of LSD's unique potency and the timing of its discovery (coinciding with a period of major discovery in psychopharmacology), it is generally regarded as the quintessential contemporary psychedelic [2]. LSD has profound modulatory effects on consciousness and was used extensively in psychological research and psychiatric practice in the 1950s and 1960s [3]. In spite of this, however, there have been no modern human imaging studies of its acute effects on the brain. Here we studied the effects of LSD on intrinsic functional connectivity within the human brain using fMRI. High-level association cortices (partially overlapping with the default-mode, salience, and frontoparietal attention networks) and the thalamus showed increased global connectivity under the drug. The cortical areas showing increased global connectivity overlapped significantly with a map of serotonin 2A (5-HT2A) receptor densities (the key site of action of psychedelic drugs [4]). LSD also increased global integration by inflating the level of communication between normally distinct brain networks. The increase in global connectivity observed under LSD correlated with subjective reports of "ego dissolution." The present results provide the first evidence that LSD selectively expands global connectivity in the brain, compromising the brain's modular and "rich-club" organization and, simultaneously, the perceptual boundaries between the self and the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Di Lorenzo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.

  16. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  17. Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, K.P.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Owen, T.W.; Elvidge, C.D.

    2002-01-01

    This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally, stations classified as rural averaged 0.19??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. Increasing ocean temperatures reduce activity patterns of a large commercially important coral reef fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, J L; Messmer, V; Coker, D J; Hoey, A S; Pratchett, M S

    2014-04-01

    Large-bodied fish are critical for sustaining coral reef fisheries, but little is known about the vulnerability of these fish to global warming. This study examined the effects of elevated temperatures on the movement and activity patterns of the common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), which is an important fishery species in tropical Australia and throughout the Indo West-Pacific. Adult fish were collected from two locations on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (23°S and 14°S) and maintained at one of four temperatures (24, 27, 30, 33 °C). Following >4 weeks acclimation, the spontaneous swimming speeds and activity patterns of individuals were recorded over a period of 12 days. At 24-27 °C, spontaneous swimming speeds of common coral trout were 0.43-0.45 body lengths per second (bls(-1)), but dropped sharply to 0.29 bls(-1) at 30 °C and 0.25 bls(-1) at 33 °C. Concurrently, individuals spent 9.3-10.6% of their time resting motionless on the bottom at 24-27 °C, but this behaviour increased to 14.0% at 30 °C and 20.0% of the time at 33 °C (mean ± SE). The impact of temperature was greatest for smaller individuals (55 cm TL) were first affected by 30 °C and 33 °C, respectively. Importantly, there was some indication that populations can adapt to elevated temperature if presented with adequate time, as the high-latitude population decreased significantly in swimming speeds at both 30 °C and 33 °C, while the low-latitude population only showed significant reductions at 33 °C. Given that movement and activity patterns of large mobile species are directly related to prey encounter rates, ability to capture prey and avoid predators, any reductions in activity patterns are likely to reduce overall foraging and energy intake, limit the energy available for growth and reproduction, and affect the fitness and survival of individuals and populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Increase of the blocking temperature of Fe–Ag granular multilayers with increasing number of the layers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balogh, Judit [Institute for Solid State Physics and Optics, Wigner Research Centre for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest (Hungary); Kaptás, Dénes, E-mail: kaptas.denes@wigner.mta.hu [Institute for Solid State Physics and Optics, Wigner Research Centre for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest (Hungary); Kiss, László F. [Institute for Solid State Physics and Optics, Wigner Research Centre for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest (Hungary); Dézsi, István [Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Wigner Research Centre for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest (Hungary); Nakanishi, Akio [Department of Physics, Shiga University of Medical Science, Shiga 520-2192 (Japan); Devlin, Eamonn; Vasilakaki, Marianna; Margaris, George; Trohidou, Kalliopi N. [Institute of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, NCSR “Demokritos”, Aghia Paraskevi, 15310 Athens (Greece)

    2016-03-01

    Multilayers of 0.4 nm Fe and 5 nm Ag with repetition number, n=1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 were prepared by vacuum evaporation onto Si wafer. The blocking temperature was determined by measuring the field cooled and zero field cooled magnetization curves with a SQUID magnetometer and it was found to increase by almost an order of magnitude from around 20 K for the single Fe layer sample up to around 160 K for n=20. Significant increase of the average size of the superparamagnetic Fe grains by increasing the number of the Fe layers was excluded by conversion electron Mössbauer spectroscopy measurements of the paramagnetic state. The role of the dipole–dipole interactions and their interplay with the out-of-plain magnetic anisotropy in the variation of the blocking temperature has been investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations. - Highlights: • Multilayers of [0.4 nm Fe/5 nm Ag]{sub n} (n=1,2,5,10, and 20) were grown over Si. • Large increase of the superparamagnetic blocking temperature up to n=10 is observed. • The average Fe grain size does not change in the subsequent layers. • Perpendicular anisotropy enhances the dipolar coupling and the blocking temperature.

  20. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  1. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  2. Constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity causes significant increase of modelled tropical vegetation surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattge, J.; Knorr, W.; Raddatz, T.; Wirth, C.

    2009-04-01

    Photosynthetic capacity is one of the most sensitive parameters of terrestrial biosphere models whose representation in global scale simulations has been severely hampered by a lack of systematic analyses using a sufficiently broad database. Due to its coupling to stomatal conductance changes in the parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity may potentially influence transpiration rates and vegetation surface temperature. Here, we provide a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity for different plant functional types in the context of the photosynthesis model proposed by Farquhar et al. (1980), based on a comprehensive compilation of leaf photosynthesis rates and leaf nitrogen content. Mean values of photosynthetic capacity were implemented into the coupled climate-vegetation model ECHAM5/JSBACH and modelled gross primary production (GPP) is compared to a compilation of independent observations on stand scale. Compared to the current standard parameterisation the root-mean-squared difference between modelled and observed GPP is substantially reduced for almost all PFTs by the new parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity. We find a systematic depression of NUE (photosynthetic capacity divided by leaf nitrogen content) on certain tropical soils that are known to be deficient in phosphorus. Photosynthetic capacity of tropical trees derived by this study is substantially lower than standard estimates currently used in terrestrial biosphere models. This causes a decrease of modelled GPP while it significantly increases modelled tropical vegetation surface temperatures, up to 0.8°C. These results emphasise the importance of a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity not only for the carbon cycle, but also for the climate system.

  3. Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Martinez, Elena M.; Pant, Suraj; Gandra, Sumanth; Levin, Simon A.; Goossens, Herman

    2018-01-01

    Tracking antibiotic consumption patterns over time and across countries could inform policies to optimize antibiotic prescribing and minimize antibiotic resistance, such as setting and enforcing per capita consumption targets or aiding investments in alternatives to antibiotics. In this study, we analyzed the trends and drivers of antibiotic consumption from 2000 to 2015 in 76 countries and projected total global antibiotic consumption through 2030. Between 2000 and 2015, antibiotic consumption, expressed in defined daily doses (DDD), increased 65% (21.1–34.8 billion DDDs), and the antibiotic consumption rate increased 39% (11.3–15.7 DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day). The increase was driven by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where rising consumption was correlated with gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) growth (P = 0.004). In high-income countries (HICs), although overall consumption increased modestly, DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day fell 4%, and there was no correlation with GDPPC. Of particular concern was the rapid increase in the use of last-resort compounds, both in HICs and LMICs, such as glycylcyclines, oxazolidinones, carbapenems, and polymyxins. Projections of global antibiotic consumption in 2030, assuming no policy changes, were up to 200% higher than the 42 billion DDDs estimated in 2015. Although antibiotic consumption rates in most LMICs remain lower than in HICs despite higher bacterial disease burden, consumption in LMICs is rapidly converging to rates similar to HICs. Reducing global consumption is critical for reducing the threat of antibiotic resistance, but reduction efforts must balance access limitations in LMICs and take account of local and global resistance patterns. PMID:29581252

  4. When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Technische Universitaet Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Kalkuhl, Matthias, E-mail: kalkuhl@pik-potsdam.d [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    The 'green paradox' by Hans-Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets, we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn-as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly. - Research highlights: {yields} Fast increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming if they start at a low level. {yields} Appropriately high carbon taxes can always reduce cumulative emissions. {yields} Many existing tax proposals are unlikely to accelerate global warming. {yields} Capital income taxes cannot reduce cumulative emissions.

  5. When do increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming? A note on the green paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias

    2011-01-01

    The 'green paradox' by Hans-Werner Sinn suggests that increasing resource taxes accelerate global warming because resource owners increase near-term extraction in fear of higher future taxation. In this note we show that this effect does only occur for the specific set of carbon taxes that increase at a rate higher than the effective discount rate of the resource owners. We calculate a critical initial value for the carbon tax that leads to a decreased cumulative consumption over the entire (infinite) time horizon. Applying our formal findings to carbon taxes for several mitigation targets, we conclude that there is a low risk of a green paradox in case the regulator implements and commits to a permanently mal-adjusted tax. This remaining risk can be avoided by emissions trading scheme as suggested by Sinn-as long as the emission caps are set appropriately and the intertemporal permit market works correctly. - Research highlights: → Fast increasing carbon taxes accelerate global warming if they start at a low level. → Appropriately high carbon taxes can always reduce cumulative emissions. → Many existing tax proposals are unlikely to accelerate global warming. → Capital income taxes cannot reduce cumulative emissions.

  6. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

  7. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Unemployment levels after the global financial crisis linked to increase in suicides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-23

    The 2008 global economic crisis appears to have triggered an increase in suicides, particularly among men in Europe and America. To investigate the impact of the economic crisis on international trends in suicide, researchers conducted an analysis comparing the number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would have been expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-2007). The analysis included data from 54 countries.

  9. Increasing Globalization and AFTA in 2003: What are the Prospects for the Philippine Automotive Industry?

    OpenAIRE

    Aldaba, Rafaelita M.

    2000-01-01

    The Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme represents the main mechanism to remove barriers to intra-ASEAN trade. Its adoption will entail intraregional tariffs ranging from zero to five percent. AFTA and the increasing globalization (which occurs through trade and foreign direct investment) of the automotive industry poses both risks and opportunities for us. The opportunities would come from the effects of a bigger market and liberalization combined with the cost advantages that...

  10. Increasing Brand Awareness for a Born Global Through Social Media Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Amblard, Johanna

    2016-01-01

    Increasing the brand awareness and recognition among the consumers is one of the most important steps for a start-up, operating in the global business environment, where the competition is intense and risks are high. The lack of funds, personnel, experience, knowledge and managerial skills in the international business environment however limits the company’s choices in terms of strategies chosen. Especially the lack of funds has a direct impact on the marketing strategy chosen through which ...

  11. Investigation of heat flux processes governing the increase of groundwater temperatures beneath cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, P.; Menberg, K.; Zhu, K.; Blum, P.

    2012-12-01

    In the subsurface of many cities there are widespread and persistent thermal anomalies. These so-called subsurface urban heat islands (UHIs), which also stimulate warming of urban aquifers, are triggered by various processes. Possible heat sources are basements of buildings, leakage of sewage systems, buried district heating networks, re-injection of cooling water and solar irradiation on paved surfaces. In the current study, the reported groundwater temperatures in several Central European cities, such as Berlin, Cologne (Germany) and Zurich (Switzerland) are compared. Available data sets are supplemented by temperature measurements and depth profiles in observation wells. Trend analyses are conducted with time series of groundwater temperatures, and three-dimensional groundwater temperature maps are provided. In all investigated cities, pronounced positive temperature anomalies are present. The distribution of groundwater temperatures appears to be spatially and temporally highly variable. Apparently, the increased heat input into the urban subsurface is controlled by very local and site-specific parameters. In the long-run, the combination of various heat sources results in an extensive temperature increase. In many cases, the maximum temperature elevation is found close to the city center. Regional groundwater temperature differences between the city center and the rural background are up to 5 °C, with local hot spots of even more pronounced anomalies. Particular heat sources, like cooling water injections or case-specific underground constructions, can cause local temperatures > 20 °C in the subsurface. Examination of the long-term variations in isotherm maps shows that temperatures have increased by about 1 °C in the city, as well as in the rural background areas over the last decades. This increase could be reproduced with trend analysis of temperature data gathered from several groundwater wells. Comparison between groundwater and air temperatures in the

  12. Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-04-16

    The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

  13. Temperature is the evil twin: effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on reproduction in a reef fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G M; Kroon, F J; Metcalfe, S; Mundayi, P L

    2015-04-01

    Reproduction in many organisms can be disrupted by changes to the physical environment, such as those predicted to occur during climate change. Marine organisms face the dual climate change threats of increasing temperature and ocean acidification, yet no studies have examined the potential interactive effects of these stressors on reproduction in marine fishes. We used a long-term experiment to test the interactive effects of increased temperature and CO2 on the reproductive performance of the anemonefish, Amphiprion melanopus. Adult breeding pairs were kept for 10 months at three temperatures (28.5°C [+0.0°C], 30.0°C [-1.5°C] and 31.5°C [+3.0°C]) cross-factored with three CO2 levels (a current-day control [417 µatm] and moderate [644 µatm] and high [1134 µatm]) treatments consistent with the range of CO2 projections for the year 2100. We recorded each egg clutch produced during the breeding season, the number of eggs laid per clutch, average egg size, fertilization success, survival to hatching, hatchling length, and yolk provisioning. Adult body condition, hepatosomatic index, gonadosomatic index, and plasma 17β-estradiol concentrations were measured at the end of the breeding season to determine the effect of prolonged exposure to increased temperature and elevated. CO2 on adults, and to examine potential physiological mechanisms for changes in reproduction. Temperature had by far the stronger influence on reproduction, with clear declines in reproduction occurring in the +1.5°C treatment and ceasing altogether in the +3.0°C treatment. In contrast, CO2 had a minimal effect on the majority of reproductive traits measured, but caused a decline in offspring quality in combination with elevated temperature. We detected no significant effect of temperature or Co2 on adult body condition or hepatosomatic index. Elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on plasma 17β-estradiol concentrations, suggesting that declines in reproduction with

  14. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  15. Global weak solutions for coupled transport processes in concrete walls at high temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Beneš, Michal; Štefan, Radek

    2012-01-01

    We consider an initial-boundary value problem for a fully nonlinear coupled parabolic system with nonlinear boundary conditions modelling hygro-thermal behavior of concrete at high temperatures. We prove a global existence of a weak solution to this system on an arbitrary time interval. The main result is proved by an approximation procedure. This consists in proving the existence of solutions to mollified problems using the Leray-Schauder theorem, for which a priori estimates are obtained. T...

  16. Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

    2017-03-06

    Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

  17. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  18. Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

    2016-12-01

    The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

  19. Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauter, Caspar; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole A.

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO_2 and CH_4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO_2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming. - Highlights: • We estimate global spatial CO_2 and CH_4 inequality using grid data for 1970–2008. • Overall spatial emission inequality is constant for CO_2 and increasing for CH_4. • Within-country inequality is rising and constitutes the main bulk of overall inequality. • An important part of within country inequality is due to differences among sectors. • The gap between emitters and victims is rising within countries.

  20. Autism and increased paternal age related changes in global levels of gene expression regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Alter

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A causal role of mutations in multiple general transcription factors in neurodevelopmental disorders including autism suggested that alterations in global levels of gene expression regulation might also relate to disease risk in sporadic cases of autism. This premise can be tested by evaluating for changes in the overall distribution of gene expression levels. For instance, in mice, variability in hippocampal-dependent behaviors was associated with variability in the pattern of the overall distribution of gene expression levels, as assessed by variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in the hippocampus. We hypothesized that a similar change in variance might be found in children with autism. Gene expression microarrays covering greater than 47,000 unique RNA transcripts were done on RNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL of children with autism (n = 82 and controls (n = 64. Variance in the distribution of gene expression levels from each microarray was compared between groups of children. Also tested was whether a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age, was associated with variance. A decrease in the variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in PBL was associated with the diagnosis of autism and a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age. Traditional approaches to microarray analysis of gene expression suggested a possible mechanism for decreased variance in gene expression. Gene expression pathways involved in transcriptional regulation were down-regulated in the blood of children with autism and children of older fathers. Thus, results from global and gene specific approaches to studying microarray data were complimentary and supported the hypothesis that alterations at the global level of gene expression regulation are related to autism and increased paternal age. Global regulation of transcription, thus, represents a possible point of convergence for multiple etiologies of autism and other

  1. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

    2018-04-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

  2. Increasing temperature decreases the predatory effect of the intertidal shanny Lipophrys pholis on an amphipod prey

    KAUST Repository

    South, J.

    2017-11-15

    Interactions between Lipophrys pholis and its amphipod prey Echinogammarus marinus were used to investigate the effect of changing water temperatures, comparing current and predicted mean summer temperatures. Contrary to expectations, predator attack rates significantly decreased with increasing temperature. Handling times were significantly longer at 19° C than at 17 and 15° C and the maximum feeding estimate was significantly lower at 19° C than at 17° C. Functional-response type changed from a destabilizing type II to the more stabilizing type III with a temperature increase to 19° C. This suggests that a temperature increase can mediate refuge for prey at low densities. Predatory pressure by teleosts may be dampened by a large increase in temperature (here from 15 to 19° C), but a short-term and smaller temperature increase (to 17° C) may increase destabilizing resource consumption due to high maximum feeding rates; this has implications for the stability of important intertidal ecosystems during warming events.

  3. Increasing temperature decreases the predatory effect of the intertidal shanny Lipophrys pholis on an amphipod prey

    KAUST Repository

    South, J.; Welsh, D.; Anton, A.; Sigwart, J. D.; Dick, J. T. A.

    2017-01-01

    Interactions between Lipophrys pholis and its amphipod prey Echinogammarus marinus were used to investigate the effect of changing water temperatures, comparing current and predicted mean summer temperatures. Contrary to expectations, predator attack rates significantly decreased with increasing temperature. Handling times were significantly longer at 19° C than at 17 and 15° C and the maximum feeding estimate was significantly lower at 19° C than at 17° C. Functional-response type changed from a destabilizing type II to the more stabilizing type III with a temperature increase to 19° C. This suggests that a temperature increase can mediate refuge for prey at low densities. Predatory pressure by teleosts may be dampened by a large increase in temperature (here from 15 to 19° C), but a short-term and smaller temperature increase (to 17° C) may increase destabilizing resource consumption due to high maximum feeding rates; this has implications for the stability of important intertidal ecosystems during warming events.

  4. Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

    2012-06-01

    Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

  5. Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

    1984-08-16

    Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.

  6. An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

    1991-10-01

    This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.

  7. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  8. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

  9. Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

    2009-01-01

    Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

  10. Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

    2014-11-14

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Response of Southeast Asian Muslims to the increasingly globalized world: discourse and action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iik Arifin Mansurnoor

    2009-03-01

    criticism. Islam has found two major support-bases for its translation in Southeast Asia: the state and the autonomous religious leaders. With the increasing sophistication and penetration of Western colonialism, modern Muslim organizations gradually have taken over the social role of the defunct indigenous states and other institutions. Southeast Asian Muslims have shown their moral vision of the globalized world and their design to achieve it. In this article, emphasis is given to major trends in spirituality centered movement among Southeast Asian Muslims as represented by mass organizations, the reformed traditional institutions, and the more pronounced social movements in the region. Despite the fact that the state's hegemony and the ever presence of the shari'a at times interfere with and color the activities of these movements, they have undeniably demonstrated the viability and potential of spirituality centered movement in reshaping the rapidly changing and more globalized world of today.

  12. Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely

  13. The effect of increased temperature and nitrogen deposition on decomposition in bogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breeuwer, A.J.G.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Robroek, B.J.M.; Limpens, J.; Berendse, F.

    2008-01-01

    Despite their low primary production, ombrotrophic peatlands have a considerable potential to store atmospheric carbon as a result of their extremely low litter decomposition rates. Projected changes in temperature and nitrogen (N) deposition may increase decomposition rates by their positive

  14. Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

  15. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  16. Effects of increasing temperature and, CO2 on quality of litter, shredders, and microorganisms in Amazonian aquatic systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Tavares Martins

    Full Text Available Climate change may affect the chemical composition of riparian leaf litter and, aquatic organisms and, consequently, leaf breakdown. We evaluated the effects of different scenarios combining increased temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2 on leaf detritus of Hevea spruceana (Benth Müll. and decomposers (insect shredders and microorganisms. We hypothesized that simulated climate change (warming and elevated CO2 would: i decrease leaf-litter quality, ii decrease survival and leaf breakdown by shredders, and iii increase microbial leaf breakdown and fungal biomass. We performed the experiment in four microcosm chambers that simulated air temperature and CO2 changes in relation to a real-time control tracking current conditions in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The experiment lasted seven days. During the experiment mean air temperature and CO2 concentration ranged from 26.96 ± 0.98ºC and 537.86 ± 18.36 ppmv in the control to 31.75 ± 0.50ºC and 1636.96 ± 17.99 ppmv in the extreme chamber, respectively. However, phosphorus concentration in the leaf litter decreased with warming and elevated CO2. Leaf quality (percentage of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, cellulose and lignin was not influenced by soil flooding. Fungal biomass and microbial leaf breakdown were positively influenced by temperature and CO2 increase and reached their highest values in the intermediate condition. Both total and shredder leaf breakdown, and shredder survival rate were similar among all climatic conditions. Thus, low leaf-litter quality due to climate change and higher leaf breakdown under intermediate conditions may indicate an increase of riparian metabolism due to temperature and CO2 increase, highlighting the risk (e.g., decreased productivity of global warming for tropical streams.

  17. Method to increase the toughness of aluminum-lithium alloys at cryogenic temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankaran, Krishnan K. (Inventor); Sova, Brian J. (Inventor); Babel, Henry W. (Inventor)

    2006-01-01

    A method to increase the toughness of the aluminum-lithium alloy C458 and similar alloys at cryogenic temperatures above their room temperature toughness is provided. Increasing the cryogenic toughness of the aluminum-lithium alloy C458 allows the use of alloy C458 for cryogenic tanks, for example for launch vehicles in the aerospace industry. A two-step aging treatment for alloy C458 is provided. A specific set of times and temperatures to age the aluminum-lithium alloy C458 to T8 temper is disclosed that results in a higher toughness at cryogenic temperatures compared to room temperature. The disclosed two-step aging treatment for alloy 458 can be easily practiced in the manufacturing process, does not involve impractical heating rates or durations, and does not degrade other material properties.

  18. Investigating the low-temperature impedance increase of lithium-ion cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abraham, D. P.; Heaton, J. R.; Kang, S.-H.; Dees, D. W.; Jansen, A. N.; Chemical Engineering

    2008-01-01

    Low-temperature performance loss is a significant barrier to commercialization of lithium-ion cells in hybrid electric vehicles. Increased impedance, especially at temperatures below 0 C, reduces the cell pulse power performance required for cold engine starts, quick acceleration, or regenerative braking. Here we detail electrochemical impedance spectroscopy data on binder- and carbon-free layered-oxide and spinel-oxide electrodes, obtained over the +30 to ?30 C temperature range, in coin cells containing a lithium-preloaded Li 4/3 Ti 5/3 O 4 composite (LTOc) counter electrode and a LiPF 6 -bearing ethylene carbonate/ethyl methyl carbonate electrolyte. For all electrodes studied, the impedance increased with decreasing cell temperature; the increases observed in the midfrequency arc dwarfed the increases in ohmic resistance and diffusional impedance. Our data suggest that the movement of lithium ions across the electrochemical interface on the active material may have been increasingly hindered at lower temperatures, especially below 0 C. Low-temperature performance may be improved by modifying the electrolyte-active material interface (for example, through electrolyte composition changes). Increasing surface area of active particles (for example, through nanoparticle use) can lower the initial electrode impedance and lead to lower cell impedances at -30 C

  19. Neurocognitive and somatic components of temperature increases during g-tummo meditation: legend and reality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Kozhevnikov

    Full Text Available Stories of g-tummo meditators mysteriously able to dry wet sheets wrapped around their naked bodies during a frigid Himalayan ceremony have intrigued scholars and laypersons alike for a century. Study 1 was conducted in remote monasteries of eastern Tibet with expert meditators performing g-tummo practices while their axillary temperature and electroencephalographic (EEG activity were measured. Study 2 was conducted with Western participants (a non-meditator control group instructed to use the somatic component of the g-tummo practice (vase breathing without utilization of meditative visualization. Reliable increases in axillary temperature from normal to slight or moderate fever zone (up to 38.3°C were observed among meditators only during the Forceful Breath type of g-tummo meditation accompanied by increases in alpha, beta, and gamma power. The magnitude of the temperature increases significantly correlated with the increases in alpha power during Forceful Breath meditation. The findings indicate that there are two factors affecting temperature increase. The first is the somatic component which causes thermogenesis, while the second is the neurocognitive component (meditative visualization that aids in sustaining temperature increases for longer periods. Without meditative visualization, both meditators and non-meditators were capable of using the Forceful Breath vase breathing only for a limited time, resulting in limited temperature increases in the range of normal body temperature. Overall, the results suggest that specific aspects of the g-tummo technique might help non-meditators learn how to regulate their body temperature, which has implications for improving health and regulating cognitive performance.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

    2018-06-01

    Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.

  1. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  2. Cooperation and diplomacy in Oceania: Transformations to the regional system and an increased global presence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasenkamp, Oliver

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Oceania’s political institutions as well as the Pacific Island Countries international activities are changing. Especially Fiji’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum created impediments towards greater regional cooperation within this most eminent regional organization, while sub-regionalism and alternative ways of collaboration were strengthened. At the same time Oceania is receiving renewed global attention. The Pacific Island Countries become increasingly active and visible in international diplomacy. Headed by Fiji they challenge traditional alliances and perceptions and start to take greater responsibility in international organizations such as the United Nations.

  3. Temperature regulation of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes increases latitudinally as a breach between bottom-up and top-down controls

    KAUST Repository

    Moran, Xose Anxelu G.

    2017-04-19

    Planktonic heterotrophic prokaryotes make up the largest living biomass and process most organic matter in the ocean. Determining when and where the biomass and activity of heterotrophic prokaryotes are controlled by resource availability (bottom-up), predation and viral lysis (top-down) or temperature will help in future carbon cycling predictions. We conducted an extensive survey across subtropical and tropical waters of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans during the Malaspina 2010 Global Circumnavigation Expedition and assessed indices for these three types of controls at 109 stations (mostly from the surface to 4000 m depth). Temperature control was approached by the apparent activation energy in eV (ranging from 0.46 to 3.41), bottom-up control by the slope of the log-log relationship between biomass and production rate (ranging from -0.12 to 1.09) and top-down control by an index that considers the relative abundances of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and viruses (ranging from 0.82 to 4.83). We conclude that temperature becomes dominant (i.e. activation energy >1.5 eV) within a narrow window of intermediate values of bottom-up (0.3-0.6) and top-down 0.8-1.2) controls. A pervasive latitudinal pattern of decreasing temperature regulation towards the Equator, regardless of the oceanic basin, suggests that the impact of global warming on marine microbes and their biogeochemical function will be more intense at higher latitudes. Our analysis predicts that 1°C ocean warming will result in increased biomass of heterotrophic prokaryoplankton only in waters with <26°C of mean annual surface temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  4. Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez Alcaraz, M.N.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20 °C vs. 25 °C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus

  5. Van ‘t Hoff global analyses of variable temperature isothermal titration calorimetry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freiburger, Lee A.; Auclair, Karine; Mittermaier, Anthony K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ▶ We developed a global fitting strategy for ITC data collected at multiple temperatures. ▶ This method does not require prior knowledge of the binding mechanism. ▶ Monte Carlo simulations show that the approach improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters. ▶ The method is used to study coupled folding/binding in aminoglycoside 6′-N-acetyltransferase-Ii. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) can provide detailed information on the thermodynamics of biomolecular interactions in the form of equilibrium constants, K A , and enthalpy changes, ΔH A . A powerful application of this technique involves analyzing the temperature dependences of ITC-derived K A and ΔH A values to gain insight into thermodynamic linkage between binding and additional equilibria, such as protein folding. We recently developed a general method for global analysis of variable temperature ITC data that significantly improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters and requires no prior knowledge of the coupled equilibria. Here we report detailed validation of this method using Monte Carlo simulations and an application to study coupled folding and binding in an aminoglycoside acetyltransferase enzyme.

  6. Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

    2018-03-01

    A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

  7. Genetic Diversity of Globally Dispersed Lacustrine Group I Haptophytes: Implications for Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, N.; Longo, W. M.; Amaral-Zettler, L. A.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    There are significant uncertainties surrounding the forcings that drive terrestrial temperature changes on local and regional scales. Quantitative temperature reconstructions from terrestrial sites, such as lakes, help to unravel the fundamental processes that drive changes in temperature on different temporal and spatial scales. Recent studies at Brown University show that distinct alkenones, long chain ketones produced by haptophytes, are found in many freshwater, alkaline lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, highlighting these systems as targets for quantitative continental temperature reconstructions. These freshwater alkenones are produced by the Group I haptophyte phylotype and are characterized by a distinct signature: the presence of isomeric tri-unsaturated ketones and absence of alkenoates. There are currently no cultured representatives of the "Group I" haptophytes, hence they are only known based on their rRNA gene signatures. Here we present robust evidence that Northern Hemispheric freshwater, alkaline lakes with the characteristic "Group I" alkenone signature all host the same clade of Isochrysidales haptophytes. We employed next generation DNA amplicon sequencing to target haptophyte specific hypervariable regions of the large and small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene from 13 different lakes from three continents (i.e., North America, Europe, and Asia). Combined with previously published sequences, our genetic data show that the Group I haptophyte is genetically diverse on a regional and global scale, and even within the same lake. We present two case studies from a suite of five lakes in Alaska and three in Iceland to assess the impact of various environmental factors affecting Group I diversity and alkenone production. Despite the genetic diversity in this group, the overall ketone signature is conserved. Based on global surface sediment samples and in situ Alaskan lake calibrations, alkenones produced by different operational taxonomic units of the Group

  8. Temperature rise, sea level rise and increased radiative forcing - an application of cointegration methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmith, Torben; Thejll, Peter; Johansen, Søren

    2016-04-01

    We analyse the statistical relationship between changes in global temperature, global steric sea level and radiative forcing in order to reveal causal relationships. There are in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We therefore apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis, originating from the field of econometrics, which is able to correctly handle the analysis of series with trends and other long-range dependencies. Further, we find a relationship between steric sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the steric sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. This result is obtained both when analyzing observed data and data from a CMIP5 historical model run. Finally, we find that in the data from the historical run, the steric sea level, in turn, is driven by the external forcing. Finally, we demonstrate that combining these two results can lead to a novel estimate of radiative forcing back in time based on observations.

  9. The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-03-23

    The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  10. Temperature modulates coccolithophorid sensitivity of growth, photosynthesis and calcification to increasing seawater pCO₂.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scarlett Sett

    Full Text Available Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to impact pelagic ecosystem functioning in the near future by driving ocean warming and acidification. While numerous studies have investigated impacts of rising temperature and seawater acidification on planktonic organisms separately, little is presently known on their combined effects. To test for possible synergistic effects we exposed two coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, to a CO₂ gradient ranging from ∼0.5-250 µmol kg⁻¹ (i.e. ∼20-6000 µatm pCO₂ at three different temperatures (i.e. 10, 15, 20°C for E. huxleyi and 15, 20, 25°C for G. oceanica. Both species showed CO₂-dependent optimum-curve responses for growth, photosynthesis and calcification rates at all temperatures. Increased temperature generally enhanced growth and production rates and modified sensitivities of metabolic processes to increasing CO₂. CO₂ optimum concentrations for growth, calcification, and organic carbon fixation rates were only marginally influenced from low to intermediate temperatures. However, there was a clear optimum shift towards higher CO₂ concentrations from intermediate to high temperatures in both species. Our results demonstrate that the CO₂ concentration where optimum growth, calcification and carbon fixation rates occur is modulated by temperature. Thus, the response of a coccolithophore strain to ocean acidification at a given temperature can be negative, neutral or positive depending on that strain's temperature optimum. This emphasizes that the cellular responses of coccolithophores to ocean acidification can only be judged accurately when interpreted in the proper eco-physiological context of a given strain or species. Addressing the synergistic effects of changing carbonate chemistry and temperature is an essential step when assessing the success of coccolithophores in the future ocean.

  11. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  12. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  13. A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhoff, Jacob T.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.

  14. Global characteristics of zonal flows generated by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyato, Naoaki; Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Li, Jiquan

    2004-08-01

    Global structure of zonal flows driven by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas is investigated using a global electromagnetic Landau fluid code. Characteristics of the coupled system of the zonal flows and the turbulence change with the safety factor q. In a low q region stationary zonal flows are excited and suppress the turbulence effectively. Coupling between zonal flows and poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations via a geodesic curvature makes the zonal flows oscillatory in a high q region. Also we identify energy transfer from the zonal flows to the turbulence via the poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations in the high q region. Therefore in the high q region the zonal flows cannot quench the turbulent transport completely. (author)

  15. Cold temperatures increase cold hardiness in the next generation Ophraella communa beetles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong-Shi Zhou

    Full Text Available The leaf beetle, Ophraella communa, has been introduced to control the spread of the common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, in China. We hypothesized that the beetle, to be able to track host-range expansion into colder climates, can phenotypically adapt to cold temperatures across generations. Therefore, we questioned whether parental experience of colder temperatures increases cold tolerance of the progeny. Specifically, we studied the demography, including development, fecundity, and survival, as well as physiological traits, including supercooling point (SCP, water content, and glycerol content of O. communa progeny whose parents were maintained at different temperature regimes. Overall, the entire immature stage decreased survival of about 0.2%-4.2% when parents experienced cold temperatures compared to control individuals obtained from parents raised at room temperature. However, intrinsic capacity for increase (r, net reproductive rate (R 0 and finite rate of increase (λ of progeny O. communa were maximum when parents experienced cold temperatures. Glycerol contents of both female and male in progeny was significantly higher when maternal and paternal adults were cold acclimated as compared to other treatments. This resulted in the supercooling point of the progeny adults being significantly lower compared to beetles emerging from parents that experienced room temperatures. These results suggest that cold hardiness of O. communa can be promoted by cold acclimation in previous generation, and it might counter-balance reduced survival in the next generation, especially when insects are tracking their host-plants into colder climates.

  16. Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to elevate global surface air temperatures by 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the century, and potentially magnify the intensity and variability of seasonal precipitation distribution. The mid-latitude grasslands of North America are predicted to experience substantial modification in precipitation regimes, with a shift towards drier summers and wetter spring and fall seasons. Despite these predictions, little is known concerning the effects of these global climate change drivers or their potential interactive effects on nitrogen (N) cycling processes. The purpose of this study is to quantify seasonal variation in rates of N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching in soil subjected to experimental warming and rainfall manipulation. Research was conducted at the Texas A&M Warming and Rainfall Manipulation (WaRM) Site in College Station where eight 9x18m rainout shelters and two unsheltered controls were established in post oak savanna in 2003. Replicate annual rainfall redistribution treatments (n = 4) are applied at the shelter level (long term mean vs. 40% of summer redistributed to fall and spring with same annual total). Warming treatments (ambient vs. 24-hr IR canopy warming of 1-3°C) were applied to planted monocultures of juniper and little bluestem, and a juniper-grass combination. Both juniper and little bluestem are key species within the post oak savanna region. Plots were sampled from the full factorial design during years six and seven of the WaRM experiment. Soil N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching were assessed quarterly for two years using the resin core incubation method. Rainfall, species composition, and time interacted significantly to influence both ammonification and nitrification. Highest rates of ammonification (0.115 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred in grass monocultures during summer in the control rainfall plots, whereas highest rates of

  17. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  18. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.

    2014-01-01

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing. PMID:25201962

  19. Growth and physiological responses of canola (Brassica napus) to three components of global climate change: temperature, carbon dioxide and drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qaderi, M.M.; Kurepin, L.V.; Reid, D.M. [Univ. of Calgary, Dept. of Biological Sciences, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    Elevated CO{sub 2} appears to be a significant factor in global warming, which will likely lead to drought conditions in many areas. Few studies have considered the interactive effects of higher CO{sub 2}, temperature and drought on plant growth and physiology. We grew canola (Brassica napus cv. 45H72) plants under lower (22/18 deg. C) and higher (28/24 deg. C) temperature regimes in controlled-environment chambers at ambient (370 {mu}mol mol-1) and elevated (740 {mu}mol mol-1) CO{sub 2} levels. One half of the plants were watered to field capacity and the other half at wilting point. In three separate experiments, we determined growth, various physiological parameters and content of abscisic acid (ABA), indole-3-acetic acid and ethylene. Drought-stressed plants grown under higher temperature at ambient CO{sub 2} had decreased stem height and diameter, leaf number and area, dry matter, leaf area ratio, shoot/root weight ratio, net CO{sub 2} assimilation and chlorophyll fluorescence. However, these plants had increased specific leaf weight, leaf weight ratio and chlorophyll concentration. Elevated CO{sub 2} generally had the opposite effect. and partially reversed the inhibitory effects of higher temperature and drought on leaf dry weight accumulation. This study showed that higher temperature and drought inhibit many processes but elevated CO{sub 2} partially mitigate some adverse effects. As expected, drought stress increased ABA but higher temperature inhibited the ability of plants to produce ABA in response to drought. (au)

  20. Past surface temperature changes as derived from continental temperature logs - Canadian and some global examples of application of a new tool in climate change studies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 47, - (2004), s. 113-174 ISSN 0065-2687 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : well temperature * global warming * surface temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.667, year: 2004

  1. Global analysis of the temperature and flow fields in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Grande, I.; Rivas, D.; de Pablo, V.

    The temperature field in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces will be analyzed, using a global model where the temperature fields in the sample, the furnace and the insulation are coupled; the input thermal data is the electric power supplied to the heaters. The radiation heat exchange between the sample and the furnace is formulated analytically, taking into account specular reflections at the sample; for the solid sample the reflectance is both diffuse and specular, and for the melt it is mostly specular. This behavior is modeled through the exchange view factors, which depend on whether the sample is solid or liquid, and, therefore, they are not known a priori. The effect of this specular behavior in the temperature field will be analyzed, by comparing with the case of diffuse samples. A parameter of great importance is the thermal conductivity of the insulation material; it will be shown that the temperature field depends strongly on it. A careful characterization of the insulation is therefore necessary, here it will be done with the aid of experimental results, which will also serve to validate the model. The heating process in the floating-zone technique in microgravity conditions will be simulated; parameters like the Marangoni number or the temperature gradient at the melt-crystal interface will be estimated. Application to the case of compound samples (graphite-silicon-graphite) will be made; the temperature distribution in the silicon part will be studied, especially the temperature difference between the two graphite rods that hold the silicon, since it drives the thermocapillary flow in the melt. This flow will be studied, after coupling the previous model with the convective effects. The possibility of suppresing this flow by the controlled vibration of the graphite rods will be also analyzed. Numerical results show that the thermocapillary flow can indeed be counterbalanced quite effectively.

  2. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    KAUST Repository

    Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Pitt, Kylie A.; Condon, Robert H.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Novaes de Santana, Charles; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2016-01-01

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  3. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, Matt; Foley, J; Mueller, N D; Licker, R; Holloway, T; Barford, C; Kucharik, C

    2011-01-01

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap-essentially improving global yields to median levels-the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike-helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  4. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2015-01-01

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km2 and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat. PMID:26324886

  5. Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2015-09-22

    Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km(2) and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat.

  6. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, Matt; Foley, J; Mueller, N D [Institute on the Environment (IonE), University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108 (United States); Licker, R; Holloway, T; Barford, C; Kucharik, C [Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53726 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap-essentially improving global yields to median levels-the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike-helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  7. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    KAUST Repository

    Sanz-Martín, Marina

    2016-06-24

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  8. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Matt; Licker, R.; Foley, J.; Holloway, T.; Mueller, N. D.; Barford, C.; Kucharik, C.

    2011-07-01

    Since the end of World War II, global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification achieved through a combination of increased applications of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, the implementation of best management practice techniques, mechanization, irrigation, and more recently, through the use of optimized seed varieties and genetic engineering. However, not all crops and not all regions of the world have realized the same improvements in agricultural intensity. In this study we examine both the magnitude and spatial variation of new agricultural production potential from closing of 'yield gaps' for 20 ethanol and biodiesel feedstock crops. With biofuels coming under increasing pressure to slow or eliminate indirect land-use conversion, the use of targeted intensification via established agricultural practices might offer an alternative for continued growth. We find that by closing the 50th percentile production gap—essentially improving global yields to median levels—the 20 crops in this study could provide approximately 112.5 billion liters of new ethanol and 8.5 billion liters of new biodiesel production. This study is intended to be an important new resource for scientists and policymakers alike—helping to more accurately understand spatial variation of yield and agricultural intensification potential, as well as employing these data to better utilize existing infrastructure and optimize the distribution of development and aid capital.

  9. Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

    2015-09-01

    Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. The effect of sexual selection on adaptation and extinction under increasing temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrett, Jonathan M; Knell, Robert J

    2018-04-25

    Strong sexual selection has been reported to both enhance and hinder the adaptive capacity and persistence of populations when exposed to novel environments. Consequently, how sexual selection influences population adaption and persistence under stress remains widely debated. Here, we present two empirical investigations of the fitness consequences of sexual selection on populations of the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella, exposed to stable or gradually increasing temperatures. When faced with increasing temperatures, strong sexual selection was associated with both increased fecundity and offspring survival compared with populations experiencing weak sexual selection, suggesting sexual selection acts to drive adaptive evolution by favouring beneficial alleles. Strong sexual selection did not, however, delay extinction when the temperature became excessively high. By manipulating individuals' mating opportunities during fitness assays, we were able to assess the effect of multiple mating independently from the effect of population-level sexual selection, and found that polyandry has a positive effect on both fecundity and offspring survival under increasing temperatures in those populations evolving with weak sexual selection. Within stable temperatures, there were some benefits from strong sexual selection but these were not consistent across the entire experiment, possibly reflecting changing costs and benefits of sexual selection under stabilizing and directional selection. These results indicate that sexual selection can provide a buffer against climate change and increase adaptation rates within a continuously changing environment. These positive effects of sexual selection may, however, be too small to protect populations and delay extinction when environmental changes are relatively rapid. © 2018 The Author(s).

  11. Cesium relocation in mixed-oxide fuel pins resulting from increased temperature reirradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, L.A.; Woodley, R.E.; Weber, E.T.

    1976-06-01

    Mixed-oxide fuel pins from EBR-II test subassemblies PNL-3 and PNL-4 were reirradiated in the GETR to study effects of increased fuel and cladding temperatures on chemical and thermomechanical behavior. Radial and axial distributions of cesium were obtained using postirradiation nondestructive precision gamma-scanning techniques. Data presented relate to the dependence of cesium distribution and transport processes on temperature gradients which were altered after substantial steady-state operation

  12. Crop growth and nitrogen turnover under increased temperatures and low autumn and winter light intensity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Ingrid Kaag; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2010-01-01

    The rise in mean annual temperatures under the projected climate change will affect both soil organic matter turnover and cropping patterns in agriculture. Nitrogen (N) mineralization may be higher during autumn and winter and may increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Our study tested whether...... before the late sowing of wheat caused generally higher levels of inorganic N to accumulate in soil. Despite the higher mineralization under the raised temperatures, at T+8 the late-sown winter wheat was able to reduce soil inorganic N to a lower level than late-sown wheat at the two lower temperatures...

  13. Moving to Google Cloud: Renovation of Global Borehole Temperature Database for Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Y.; Huang, S.

    2013-12-01

    Borehole temperature comprises an independent archive of information on climate change which is complementary to the instrumental and other proxy climate records. With support from the international geothermal community, a global database of borehole temperatures has been constructed for the specific purpose of the study on climate change. Although this database has become an important data source in climate research, there are certain limitations partially because the framework of the existing borehole temperature database was hand-coded some twenty years ago. A database renovation work is now underway to take the advantages of the contemporary online database technologies. The major intended improvements include 1) dynamically linking a borehole site to Google Earth to allow for inspection of site specific geographical information; 2) dynamically linking an original key reference of a given borehole site to Google Scholar to allow for a complete list of related publications; and 3) enabling site selection and data download based on country, coordinate range, and contributor. There appears to be a good match between the enhancement requirements for this database and the functionalities of the newly released Google Fusion Tables application. Google Fusion Tables is a cloud-based service for data management, integration, and visualization. This experimental application can consolidate related online resources such as Google Earth, Google Scholar, and Google Drive for sharing and enriching an online database. It is user friendly, allowing users to apply filters and to further explore the internet for additional information regarding the selected data. The users also have ways to map, to chart, and to calculate on the selected data, and to download just the subset needed. The figure below is a snapshot of the database currently under Google Fusion Tables renovation. We invite contribution and feedback from the geothermal and climate research community to make the

  14. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2018-02-01

    One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Assimilation of global radar backscatter and radiometer brightness temperature observations to improve soil moisture and land evaporation estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N.E.C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R.H.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.

    2016-01-01

    Active radar backscatter (σ°) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model

  16. Engineered Photorespiratory Bypass Pathways Improve Photosynthetic Efficiency and Growth as Temperature Increases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavanagh, A. P.; South, P. F.; Ort, D. R.; Bernacchi, C.

    2017-12-01

    In C3 plants grown under ambient [CO2] at 25°C, 23% of the fixed carbon dioxide is lost to photorespiration, the energy expensive metabolic pathway that recycles toxic compounds produced by Rubisco oxygenation reactions. Furthermore, rates of photorespiration increase with rising temperature, as higher temperatures favor increased Rubisco oxygenation. Modelling suggests that the absence of photorespiration could improve gross photosynthesis by 12-55% under projected climate conditions; however, this is difficult to measure empirically, as photorespiration interacts with several metabolic pathways and is an essential process for all C3 plants grown at ambient [O2]. Introduced biochemical bypasses to the native photorespiration pathway hold promise as a strategy to mitigate the impact of temperature on photorespiratory losses. We grew tobacco containing engineered pathways to bypass photorespiration under ambient and elevated temperatures (+5°C) in the field to determine if bypassing photorespiration could mitigate high temperature induced losses in growth and physiology. Our preliminary results show that engineered plants have a higher quantum efficiency under heated conditions than do non-engineered plants, resulting in up to 20% lower yield losses under heated conditions compared to non-engineered plants. These results support the theoretical modelling of temperature impacts on photorespiratory losses, and suggest the bypassing photorespiration could be an important strategy to increase crop yields.

  17. Global IP6K1 deletion enhances temperature modulated energy expenditure which reduces carbohydrate and fat induced weight gain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingzhang Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: IP6 kinases (IP6Ks regulate cell metabolism and survival. Mice with global (IP6K1-KO or adipocyte-specific (AdKO deletion of IP6K1 are protected from diet induced obesity (DIO at ambient (23 °C temperature. AdKO mice are lean primarily due to increased AMPK mediated thermogenic energy expenditure (EE. Thus, at thermoneutral (30 °C temperature, high fat diet (HFD-fed AdKO mice expend energy and gain body weight, similar to control mice. IP6K1 is ubiquitously expressed; thus, it is critical to determine to what extent the lean phenotype of global IP6K1-KO mice depends on environmental temperature. Furthermore, it is not known whether IP6K1 regulates AMPK mediated EE in cells, which do not express UCP1. Methods: Q-NMR, GTT, food intake, EE, QRT-PCR, histology, mitochondrial oxygen consumption rate (OCR, fatty acid metabolism assays, and immunoblot studies were conducted in IP6K1-KO and WT mice or cells. Results: Global IP6K1 deletion mediated enhancement in EE is impaired albeit not abolished at 30 °C. As a result, IP6K1-KO mice are protected from DIO, insulin resistance, and fatty liver even at 30 °C. Like AdKO, IP6K1-KO mice display enhanced adipose tissue browning. However, unlike AdKO mice, thermoneutrality only partly abolishes browning in IP6K1-KO mice. Cold (5 °C exposure enhances carbohydrate expenditure, whereas 23 °C and 30 °C promote fat oxidation in HFD-KO mice. Furthermore, IP6K1 deletion diminishes cellular fat accumulation via activation of the AMPK signaling pathway. Conclusions: Global deletion of IP6K1 ameliorates obesity and insulin resistance irrespective of the environmental temperature conditions, which strengthens its validity as an anti-obesity target. Keywords: IP6K, Obesity, Diabetes, Energy expenditure, β-oxidation

  18. Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

  19. Global Trends in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Development: Increasing the Probability of Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugino, Haruhiko; Watanabe, Akihito; Amada, Naoki; Yamamoto, Miho; Ohgi, Yuta; Kostic, Dusan; Sanchez, Raymond

    2015-08-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a growing global health and economic issue as elderly populations increase dramatically across the world. Despite the many clinical trials conducted, currently no approved disease-modifying treatment exists. In this commentary, the present status of AD drug development and the grounds for collaborations between government, academia, and industry to accelerate the development of disease-modifying AD therapies are discussed. Official government documents, literature, and news releases were surveyed by MEDLINE and website research. Currently approved anti-AD drugs provide only short-lived symptomatic improvements, which have no effect on the underlying pathogenic mechanisms or progression of the disease. The failure to approve a disease-modifying drug for AD may be because the progression of AD in the patient populations enrolled in clinical studies was too advanced for drugs to demonstrate cognitive and functional improvements. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency recently published draft guidance for industry which discusses approaches for conducting clinical studies with patients in early AD stages. For successful clinical trials in early-stage AD, however, it will be necessary to identify biomarkers highly correlated with the clinical onset and the longitudinal progress of AD. In addition, because of the high cost and length of clinical AD studies, support in the form of global initiatives and collaborations between government, industry, and academia is needed. In response to this situation, national guidance and international collaborations have been established. Global initiatives are focusing on 2025 as a goal to provide new treatment options, and early signs of success in biomarker and drug development are already emerging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. [Effect of temperature and salinity on intrinsic increasing rate of Moina mongolica Daddy (Cladocera: Moinidae) population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y; He, Z

    2001-02-01

    The intrinsic increasing rate of Moina mongolica Daddy, a euryhaline cladocera species isolated from inland brackish lakes of northwestern China, was studied at 20 degrees C-33 degrees C and 5-40 ppt, respectively. The results showed that its intrinsic increasing rate (rm) increased with increasing temperature from 20 degrees C-30 degrees C, and sharply dropped with further increasing temperature up to 33 degrees C. The rm of M. mongolica was relatively high at low salinity, the highest at 10 ppt, but no significant difference at 20-40 ppt. Therefore, 25 degrees C-30 degrees C and 10 ppt could be optimal for the development of M. mongolica population, and its increasing potential would not be affected significantly by rearing this cladocera species in seawater for a long period.

  1. Temperature Increase Negatively Affects the Fatty Acid Bioconversion Capacity of Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Fed a Linseed Oil-Based Diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellery, Julie; Geay, Florian; Tocher, Douglas R; Kestemont, Patrick; Debier, Cathy; Rollin, Xavier; Larondelle, Yvan

    2016-01-01

    Aquaculture is meant to provide fish rich in omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFA). This objective must be reached despite (1) the necessity to replace the finite and limited fish oil in feed production and (2) the increased temperature of the supply water induced by the global warming. The objective of the present paper was to determine to what extent increased water temperature influences the fatty acid bioconversion capacity of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fed a plant-derived diet. Fish were fed two diets formulated with fish oil (FO) or linseed oil (LO) as only added lipid source at the optimal water temperature of 15°C or at the increased water temperature of 19°C for 60 days. We observed that a temperature increase close to the upper limit of the species temperature tolerance range negatively affected the feed efficiency of rainbow trout fed LO despite a higher feed intake. The negative impact of increased water temperature on fatty acid bioconversion capacity appeared also to be quite clear considering the reduced expression of fatty acid desaturase 2 in liver and intestine and the reduced Δ6 desaturase enzymatic activity in intestinal microsomes. The present results also highlighted a negative impact of increased temperature on the apparent in vivo enzymatic activity of Δ5 and Δ6 desaturases of fish fed LO. Interestingly, this last parameter appeared less affected than those mentioned above. This study highlights that the increased temperature that rainbow trout may face due to global warming could reduce their fatty acid bioconversion capacity. The unavoidable replacement of finite fish oil by more sustainable, readily available and economically viable alternative lipid sources in aquaculture feeds should take this undeniable environmental issue on aquaculture productivity into account.

  2. Facility for studying the effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration and increased temperature on crops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawlor, D.W.; Mitchell, R.A.C.; Franklin, J.; Mitchell, V.J.; Driscoll, S.P.; Delgado, E. (Institute of Arable Crops Research, Harpenden (United Kingdom). Dept. of Biochemistry and Physiology)

    1993-06-01

    The requirements for the experimental study of the effects of global climate change conditions on plants are outlined. A semi-controlled plant growth facility is described which allows the study of elevated CO[sub 2] and temperature, and their interaction on the growth of plants under radiation and temperature conditions similar to the field. During an experiment on winter wheat (cv. Mercia), which ran from December 1990 through to August 1991, the facility maintained mean daytime CO[sub 2] concentrations of 363 and 692 cm[sup 3] m[sup -3] for targets of 350 and 700 cm[sup 3] m[sup 3] respectively. Temperatures were set to follow outside ambient or outside ambient +4[degree]C, and hourly means were within 0.5[degree]C of the target for 92% of the time for target temperatures greater than 6[degree]C. Total photosynthetically active radiation incident on the crop (solar radiation supplemented by artificial light with natural photoperiod) was 2% greater than the total measured outside over the same period.

  3. Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years

    OpenAIRE

    Chunlüe Zhou; Kaicun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5????5? grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) ha...

  4. Reproductive gene expression in a coral reef fish exposed to increasing temperature across generations

    KAUST Repository

    Veilleux, Heather D; Donelson, Jennifer M; Munday, Philip L

    2017-01-01

    Reproduction in marine fish is generally tightly linked with water temperature. Consequently, when adults are exposed to projected future ocean temperatures, reproductive output of many species declines precipitously. Recent research has shown that in the common reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, step-wise exposure to higher temperatures over two generations (parents: +1.5°C, offspring: +3.0°C) can improve reproductive output in the F2 generation compared to F2 fish that have experienced the same high temperatures over two generations (F1 parents: +3.0°C, F2 offspring: +3.0°C). To investigate how a step-wise increase in temperature between generations improved reproductive capacity, we tested the expression of well-known teleost reproductive genes in the brain and gonads of F2 fish using quantitative reverse transcription PCR and compared it among control (+0.0°C for two generations), developmental (+3.0°C in second generation only), step (+1.5°C in first generation and +3.0°C in second generation), and transgenerational (+3.0°C for two generations) treatments. We found that levels of gonadotropin receptor gene expression (Fshr and Lhcgr) in the testes were reduced in developmental and transgenerational temperature treatments, but were similar to control levels in the step treatment. This suggests Fshr and Lhcgr may be involved in regulating male reproductive capacity in A. polyacanthus. In addition, lower Fshb expression in the brain of females in all temperature treatments compared to control, suggests that Fshb expression, which is involved in vitellogenesis, is sensitive to high temperatures. Our results help elucidate key genes that facilitate successful reproduction in reef fishes when they experience a gradual increase in temperature across generations consistent with the trajectory of climate change.

  5. Reproductive gene expression in a coral reef fish exposed to increasing temperature across generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veilleux, Heather D; Donelson, Jennifer M; Munday, Philip L

    2018-01-01

    Reproduction in marine fish is generally tightly linked with water temperature. Consequently, when adults are exposed to projected future ocean temperatures, reproductive output of many species declines precipitously. Recent research has shown that in the common reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus , step-wise exposure to higher temperatures over two generations (parents: +1.5°C, offspring: +3.0°C) can improve reproductive output in the F2 generation compared to F2 fish that have experienced the same high temperatures over two generations (F1 parents: +3.0°C, F2 offspring: +3.0°C). To investigate how a step-wise increase in temperature between generations improved reproductive capacity, we tested the expression of well-known teleost reproductive genes in the brain and gonads of F2 fish using quantitative reverse transcription PCR and compared it among control (+0.0°C for two generations), developmental (+3.0°C in second generation only), step (+1.5°C in first generation and +3.0°C in second generation), and transgenerational (+3.0°C for two generations) treatments. We found that levels of gonadotropin receptor gene expression ( Fshr and Lhcgr ) in the testes were reduced in developmental and transgenerational temperature treatments, but were similar to control levels in the step treatment. This suggests Fshr and Lhcgr may be involved in regulating male reproductive capacity in A. polyacanthus . In addition, lower Fshb expression in the brain of females in all temperature treatments compared to control, suggests that Fshb expression, which is involved in vitellogenesis, is sensitive to high temperatures. Our results help elucidate key genes that facilitate successful reproduction in reef fishes when they experience a gradual increase in temperature across generations consistent with the trajectory of climate change.

  6. Reproductive gene expression in a coral reef fish exposed to increasing temperature across generations

    KAUST Repository

    Veilleux, Heather D

    2017-12-07

    Reproduction in marine fish is generally tightly linked with water temperature. Consequently, when adults are exposed to projected future ocean temperatures, reproductive output of many species declines precipitously. Recent research has shown that in the common reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, step-wise exposure to higher temperatures over two generations (parents: +1.5°C, offspring: +3.0°C) can improve reproductive output in the F2 generation compared to F2 fish that have experienced the same high temperatures over two generations (F1 parents: +3.0°C, F2 offspring: +3.0°C). To investigate how a step-wise increase in temperature between generations improved reproductive capacity, we tested the expression of well-known teleost reproductive genes in the brain and gonads of F2 fish using quantitative reverse transcription PCR and compared it among control (+0.0°C for two generations), developmental (+3.0°C in second generation only), step (+1.5°C in first generation and +3.0°C in second generation), and transgenerational (+3.0°C for two generations) treatments. We found that levels of gonadotropin receptor gene expression (Fshr and Lhcgr) in the testes were reduced in developmental and transgenerational temperature treatments, but were similar to control levels in the step treatment. This suggests Fshr and Lhcgr may be involved in regulating male reproductive capacity in A. polyacanthus. In addition, lower Fshb expression in the brain of females in all temperature treatments compared to control, suggests that Fshb expression, which is involved in vitellogenesis, is sensitive to high temperatures. Our results help elucidate key genes that facilitate successful reproduction in reef fishes when they experience a gradual increase in temperature across generations consistent with the trajectory of climate change.

  7. Global equatorial sea-surface temperatures over the last 150,000 years: An update from foraminiferal elemental analysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.

    for the warmest waters. However, how the equatorial SST affects global climate, is still not clear. Long-term past seawater temperature records are required to understand the effect of temporal changes in equatorial SST on the global climate. Various techniques...

  8. Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

  9. Automatic luminous reflections detector using global threshold with increased luminosity contrast in images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Ricardo Petri; Naozuka, Gustavo Taiji; Mastelini, Saulo Martiello; Felinto, Alan Salvany

    2018-01-01

    The incidence of luminous reflections (LR) in captured images can interfere with the color of the affected regions. These regions tend to oversaturate, becoming whitish and, consequently, losing the original color information of the scene. Decision processes that employ images acquired from digital cameras can be impaired by the LR incidence. Such applications include real-time video surgeries, facial, and ocular recognition. This work proposes an algorithm called contrast enhancement of potential LR regions, which is a preprocessing to increase the contrast of potential LR regions, in order to improve the performance of automatic LR detectors. In addition, three automatic detectors were compared with and without the employment of our preprocessing method. The first one is a technique already consolidated in the literature called the Chang-Tseng threshold. We propose two automatic detectors called adapted histogram peak and global threshold. We employed four performance metrics to evaluate the detectors, namely, accuracy, precision, exactitude, and root mean square error. The exactitude metric is developed by this work. Thus, a manually defined reference model was created. The global threshold detector combined with our preprocessing method presented the best results, with an average exactitude rate of 82.47%.

  10. Decline in temperature and humidity increases the occurrence of influenza in cold climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Both temperature and humidity may independently or jointly contribute to the risk of influenza infections. We examined the relations between the level and decrease of temperature, humidity and the risk of influenza A and B virus infections in a subarctic climate. Methods We conducted a case-crossover study among military conscripts (n = 892) seeking medical attention due to respiratory symptoms during their military training period and identified 66 influenza A and B cases by PCR or serology. Meteorological data such as measures of average and decline in ambient temperature and absolute humidity (AH) during the three preceding days of the onset (hazard period) and two reference periods, prior and after the onset were obtained. Results The average temperature preceding the influenza onset was −6.8 ± 5.6°C and AH 3.1 ± 1.3 g/m3. A decrease in both temperature and AH during the hazard period increased the occurrence of influenza so that a 1°C decrease in temperature and 0.5 g decrease per m3 in AH increased the estimated risk by 11% [OR 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20)] and 58% [OR 1.58 (1.28 to 1.96)], respectively. The occurrence of influenza infections was positively associated with both the average temperature [OR 1.10 per 1°C (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.19)] and AH [OR 1.25 per g/m3 (1.05 to 1.49)] during the hazard period prior to onset. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that a decrease rather than low temperature and humidity per se during the preceding three days increase the risk of influenza episodes in a cold climate. PMID:24678699

  11. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  12. What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.

  13. Enhanced water use efficiency in global terrestrial ecosystems under increasing aerosol loadings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Xiaoliang; Chen, Min; Liu, Yaling; Miralles, Diego G.; Wang, Faming

    2017-05-01

    Aerosols play a crucial role in the climate system, affecting incoming radiation and cloud formation. Based on a modelling framework that couples ecosystem processes with the atmospheric transfer of radiation, we analyze the effect of aerosols on surface incoming radiation, gross primary productivity (GPP), water losses from ecosystems through evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, defined as GPP/ET) for 2003–2010 and validate them at global FLUXNET sites. The total diffuse radiation increases under relatively low or intermediate aerosol loadings, but decreases under more polluted conditions. We find that aerosol-induced changes in GPP depend on leaf area index, aerosol loading and cloudiness. Specifically, low and moderate aerosol loadings cause increases in GPP for all plant types, while heavy aerosol loadings result in enhancement (decrease) in GPP for dense (sparse) vegetation. On the other hand, ET is mainly negatively affected by aerosol loadings due to the reduction in total incoming radiation. Finally, WUE shows a consistent rise in all plant types under increasing aerosol loadings. Overall, the simulated daily WUE compares well with observations at 43 eddy-covariance tower sites (R2=0.84 and RMSE=0.01gC (kg H2O)-1) with better performance at forest sites. In addition to the increasing portions of diffuse light, the rise in WUE is also favored by the reduction in radiation- and heat-stress caused by the aerosols, especially for wet and hot climates.

  14. Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Ralph F.; Graven, Heather D.; Welp, Lisa R.; Resplandy, Laure; Bi, Jian; Piper, Stephen C.; Sun, Ying; Bollenbacher, Alane; Meijer, Harro A. J.

    2017-09-01

    A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm-1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

  15. Ion temperature increase during MHD events on the TST-2 spherical tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ejiri, A.; Shiraiwa, S.; Takase, Y.; Yamada, T.; Nagashima, Y.; Kasahara, H.; Iijima, D.; Kobori, Y.; Nishi, T.; Taniguchi, T.; Aramasu, M.; Ohara, S.; Ushigome, M.; Yamagishi, K.

    2003-01-01

    Various types of MHD events including internal reconnection events are studied on the TST-2 spherical tokamak. In weak MHD events no positive current spike was observed, but in strong MHD events with positive current spikes, a rapid and significant impurity ion temperature increase was observed. The decrease in the poloidal magnetic energy is the most probable energy source for ion heating. The plasma current shows a stepwise change. The magnitude of this step correlates with the temperature increase and is found to be a good indicator of the strength of each event. (author)

  16. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

    2014-01-01

    Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

  19. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  20. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  1. Temperature increases on the external root surface during endodontic treatment using single file systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özkocak, I; Taşkan, M M; Gökt Rk, H; Aytac, F; Karaarslan, E Şirin

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate increases in temperature on the external root surface during endodontic treatment with different rotary systems. Fifty human mandibular incisors with a single root canal were selected. All root canals were instrumented using a size 20 Hedstrom file, and the canals were irrigated with 5% sodium hypochlorite solution. The samples were randomly divided into the following three groups of 15 teeth: Group 1: The OneShape Endodontic File no.: 25; Group 2: The Reciproc Endodontic File no.: 25; Group 3: The WaveOne Endodontic File no.: 25. During the preparation, the temperature changes were measured in the middle third of the roots using a noncontact infrared thermometer. The temperature data were transferred from the thermometer to the computer and were observed graphically. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance at a significance level of 0.05. The increases in temperature caused by the OneShape file system were lower than those of the other files (P file showed the highest temperature increases. However, there were no significant differences between the Reciproc and WaveOne files. The single file rotary systems used in this study may be recommended for clinical use.

  2. Increasing temperature reduces the coupling between available nitrogen and phosphorus in soils of Chinese grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Yan; Baumann, Frank; Song, Chao; Zhang, Mi; Shi, Yue; Kühn, Peter; Scholten, Thomas; He, Jin-Sheng

    2017-03-01

    Changes in climatic conditions along geographical gradients greatly affect soil nutrient cycling processes. Yet how climate regimes such as changes in temperature influence soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and their stoichiometry is not well understood. This study investigated the spatial pattern and variability of soil N and P availability as well as their coupling relationships at two soil layers (0-10 and 10-20 cm) along a 4000-km climate transect in two grassland biomes of China, the Inner Mongolian temperate grasslands and the Tibetan alpine grasslands. Our results found that in both grasslands, from cold to warm sites the amounts of soil total N, total P and available P all decreased. By contrast, the amount of available N was positively related to mean annual temperature in the Tibetan grasslands. Meanwhile, with increasing temperature ratio of available N to P significantly increased but the linear relationship between them was considerably reduced. Thus, increasing temperature may not only induce a stoichiometric shift but also loose the coupling between available N and P. This N-P decoupling under warmer conditions was more evident in the Tibetan alpine grasslands where P limitation might become more widespread relative to N as temperatures continue to rise.

  3. Mass extinctions drove increased global faunal cosmopolitanism on the supercontinent Pangaea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Button, David J; Lloyd, Graeme T; Ezcurra, Martín D; Butler, Richard J

    2017-10-10

    Mass extinctions have profoundly impacted the evolution of life through not only reducing taxonomic diversity but also reshaping ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. In particular, they are considered to have driven increased biogeographic cosmopolitanism, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis are rare and have not explicitly incorporated information on evolutionary relationships. Here we quantify faunal cosmopolitanism using a phylogenetic network approach for 891 terrestrial vertebrate species spanning the late Permian through Early Jurassic. This key interval witnessed the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions, the onset of fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangaea, and the origins of dinosaurs and many modern vertebrate groups. Our results recover significant increases in global faunal cosmopolitanism following both mass extinctions, driven mainly by new, widespread taxa, leading to homogenous 'disaster faunas'. Cosmopolitanism subsequently declines in post-recovery communities. These shared patterns in both biotic crises suggest that mass extinctions have predictable influences on animal distribution and may shed light on biodiversity loss in extant ecosystems.Mass extinctions are thought to produce 'disaster faunas', communities dominated by a small number of widespread species. Here, Button et al. develop a phylogenetic network approach to test this hypothesis and find that mass extinctions did increase faunal cosmopolitanism across Pangaea during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic.

  4. Increasing parameter certainty and data utility through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed temperature and solute model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bandaragoda

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available To support the goal of distributed hydrologic and instream model predictions based on physical processes, we explore multi-dimensional parameterization determined by a broad set of observations. We present a systematic approach to using various data types at spatially distributed locations to decrease parameter bounds sampled within calibration algorithms that ultimately provide information regarding the extent of individual processes represented within the model structure. Through the use of a simulation matrix, parameter sets are first locally optimized by fitting the respective data at one or two locations and then the best results are selected to resolve which parameter sets perform best at all locations, or globally. This approach is illustrated using the Two-Zone Temperature and Solute (TZTS model for a case study in the Virgin River, Utah, USA, where temperature and solute tracer data were collected at multiple locations and zones within the river that represent the fate and transport of both heat and solute through the study reach. The result was a narrowed parameter space and increased parameter certainty which, based on our results, would not have been as successful if only single objective algorithms were used. We also found that the global optimum is best defined by multiple spatially distributed local optima, which supports the hypothesis that there is a discrete and narrowly bounded parameter range that represents the processes controlling the dominant hydrologic responses. Further, we illustrate that the optimization process itself can be used to determine which observed responses and locations are most useful for estimating the parameters that result in a global fit to guide future data collection efforts.

  5. Interactive effect of temperature and CO2 increase in Arctic phytoplankton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra eCoello-Camba

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available An experiment was performed in order to analyze the effects of the increase in water temperature and CO2 partial pressure expected for the end of this century in a present phytoplankton community inhabiting the Arctic Ocean. We analyzed both factors acting independently and together, to test possible interactions between them. The arctic planktonic community was incubated under 6 different treatments combining three experimental temperatures (1 ºC, 6 ºC and 10 ºC with two different CO2 levels of 380 ppm or 1000 ppm, at the UNIS installations in Longyearbyen (Svalbard, in summer 2010. Under warmer temperatures, a decrease in chlorophyll a concentration, biovolume and primary production was found, together with a shift in community structure towards a dominance of smaller cells (nano-sized. Effects of increased pCO2 were more modest, and although interactions were weak, our results suggest antagonistic interactive effects amongst increased temperature and CO2 levels, as elevated CO2 compensated partially the decrease in phytoplankton biomass induced by temperature in some groups. Interactions between the two stressors were generally weak, but elevated CO2 was observed to lead to a stepper decline in primary production with warming. Our results also suggest that future increases in water temperature and pCO2 would lead to a decrease in the community chl a concentration and biomass in the Arctic phytoplankton communities examined, leading to communities dominated by smaller nano-phytoplankton groups, with important consequences for the flow of carbon and food web dynamics.

  6. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  7. Apparent increase in the thickness of superconducting particles at low temperatures measured by electron holography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, J E

    2013-10-01

    We predict that superconducting particles will show an apparent increase in thickness at low temperatures when measured by electron holography. This will result not from a real thickness increase, rather from an increase in the mean inner potential sensed by the electron wave traveling through the particle, originating in expansion of the electronic wavefunction of the superconducting electrons and resulting negative charge expulsion from the interior to the surface of the superconductor, giving rise to an increase in the phase shift of the electron wavefront going through the sample relative to the wavefront going through vacuum. The temperature dependence of the observed phase shifts will yield valuable new information on the physics of the superconducting state of metals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  9. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  10. AVHRR Pathfinder version 5.3 level 3 collated (L3C) global 4km sea surface temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.3 (PFV53) L3C Sea Surface Temperature data set is a collection of global, twice-daily (Day and Night) 4km sea surface temperature...

  11. Temperature-Induced Increase in Methane Release from Peat Bogs: A Mesocosm Experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Winden, J.F.; Reichart, G.J.; McNamara, N.P.; Benthien, A.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2012-01-01

    Peat bogs are primarily situated at mid to high latitudes and future climatic change projections indicate that these areas may become increasingly wetter and warmer. Methane emissions from peat bogs are reduced by symbiotic methane oxidizing bacteria (methanotrophs). Higher temperatures and

  12. Temperature-induced increase in methane release from peat bogs: A mesocosm experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winden, J.F. van; Reichart, G.-J.; McNamara, N.P.; Benthien, A.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2012-01-01

    Peat bogs are primarily situated at mid to high latitudes and future climatic change projections indicate that these areas may become increasingly wetter and warmer. Methane emissions from peat bogs are reduced by symbiotic methane oxidizing bacteria (methanotrophs). Higher temperatures and

  13. A mathematical correlation between variations in solar radiation parameters. 2. Global radiation, air temperature and specific humidity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-06-01

    We derive from first principles, an equation which expresses global radiation as a function of specific humidity and air temperature at screen height. The practical validity of this equation is tested by using humidity, air temperature and global radiation data from Tanzania. It is shown that global radiation values calculated on the basis of the derived equation agree with measured radiation values to within ± 8% as long as the prevalent (horizontal) winds are either calm or light. It is noted that the equation is equally valid at times of strong horizontal winds provided that the temperature and humidity measuring site is sufficiently shielded from the winds. This implies that meteorological stations that are (for some unavoidable reasons) unable to stock pyranometers can still procure reasonable estimates of local global radiation as long as they can, at least, stock the relatively cheaper barometers and wet- and dry-bulb psychrometers. (author). 12 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs

  14. Apparent increase in the thickness of superconducting particles at low temperatures measured by electron holography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirsch, J.E.

    2013-01-01

    We predict that superconducting particles will show an apparent increase in thickness at low temperatures when measured by electron holography. This will result not from a real thickness increase, rather from an increase in the mean inner potential sensed by the electron wave traveling through the particle, originating in expansion of the electronic wavefunction of the superconducting electrons and resulting negative charge expulsion from the interior to the surface of the superconductor, giving rise to an increase in the phase shift of the electron wavefront going through the sample relative to the wavefront going through vacuum. The temperature dependence of the observed phase shifts will yield valuable new information on the physics of the superconducting state of metals. - Highlights: • A new property of superconducting particles is predicted. • Electron holography will show an apparent increase in thickness at low temperatures. • This will result from a predicted increase in the mean inner potential. • This will originate in expulsion of electrons from the interior to the surface. • This is not predicted by the conventional BCS theory of superconductivity

  15. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  16. Partnering With Scientists To Increase the Visibility and Use of Published Global Climate Change Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, L. J.; Scott, M.; Geiger-Wooten, N.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Anderson, D. M.; Eakin, C. M.

    2003-12-01

    Scientific journal articles are notoriously difficult for non-scientists or scientists outside a specialty to comprehend. Yet in societally relevant fields such as global climate change, there is an urgent need to make the published results of scientific research more accessible and useable to a broad audience. NOAA's World Data for Paleoclimatology attempts to meet this need using the Internet to distribute raw data and information products from scientific publications. The Data Center creates "What's New" pages highlighting data from recent publications, along with descriptions and ancillary information such as photographs. The Data Center also authors a "Climate TimeLine", online slide sets and photo gallery, and "Paleo Perspectives" web pages that describe the broader significance of scientific research, and how the data are used to improve our understanding of global warming, drought, and climate change. With the goal to inform and engage, the Climate Time Line provides interactive activities, and information that can be integrated into the classroom. The approach benefits a diverse audience by demystifying climate science and making it more accessible, and benefits scientists by increasing the visibility and use of scientists' published data. The success of the approach can be seen in web site user statistics and comments, and numerous awards for providing valuable information via the Internet. To solve the challenge of simplifying complex scientific problems while maintaining the accuracy and integrity of the scientific information, the World Data Center works closely with scientists who contribute the data. Underlying the effort are the hundreds of scientists who have contributed their data to the World Data Center, and reviewed and edited the online extensions of their research.

  17. Increase of COP for heat transformer in water purification systems. Part II - Without increasing heat source temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero, R.J.; Siqueiros, J.; Huicochea, A.

    2007-01-01

    The integration of a water purification system allows a heat transformer to increase the actual coefficient of performance, by the reduction of the amount of heat supplied by unit of heat. A new defined COP called COP WP is proposed for the present system, which considers the fraction of heat recycled. Simulation with proven software compares the performance of the modeling of an absorption heat transformer for water purification (AHTWP) operating with water/lithium bromide, as working fluid-absorbent pair. Plots of enthalpy-based coefficients of performance (COP ET ) and water purification coefficient of performance (COP WP ) are shown against absorber temperature for several thermodynamic operating conditions. The results showed that the proposed (AHTWP) system is capable of increasing the original value of COP ET up to 1.6 times its original value by recycling energy from a water purification system. The proposed COP WP allows increments for COP values from any experimental data for water purification or for any other distillation system integrated to a heat transformer, regardless of actual COP A value or working fluid-absorbent pair

  18. A moderate increase in ambient temperature modulates the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua spleen transcriptome response to intraperitoneal viral mimic injection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hori Tiago S

    2012-08-01

    pIC at 10°C vs. 16°C at 6HPI. These results substantially increase our understanding of the genes and molecular pathways involved in the negative impacts of elevated ambient temperature on fish health, and may also be valuable to our understanding of how accelerated global climate change could impact cold-water marine finfish species.

  19. Structural and magnetic properties of cobalt ferrite nanoparticles synthesized by co-precipitation at increasing temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, C. R.; Bezerra, M. T. S.; Holanda, G. H. A.; André-Filho, J.; Morais, P. C.

    2018-05-01

    This study reports on the synthesis and characterization of cobalt ferrite (CoFe2O4) nanoparticles (NPs) synthesized by chemical co-precipitation in alkaline medium at increasing temperatures in the range of 27 °C to 100 °C. High-quality samples in the size range of 5 to 10 nm were produced using very low stirring speed (250 rpm) and moderate alkaline aqueous solution concentration (4.8 mol/L). Three samples were synthesized and characterized by x-ray diffraction (XRD) and room-temperature (RT) magnetization measurements. All samples present superparamagnetic (SPM) behavior at RT and Rietveld refinements confirm the inverse cubic spinel structure (space group Fd-3m (227)) with minor detectable impurity phase. As the synthesis temperature increases, structural parameters such as lattice constant and grain size change monotonically from 8.385 to 8.383 Å and from 5.8 to 7.4 nm, respectively. Likewise, as the synthesis temperature increases the NPs' magnetic moment and saturation magnetization increases monotonically from 2.6 ×103 to 16×103 μB and from 37 to 66 emu/g, respectively. The RT magnetization (M) versus applied field (H) curves were analyzed by the first-order Langevin function averaged out by a lognormal distribution function of magnetic moments. The excellent curve-fitting of the M versus H data is credited to a reduced particle-particle interaction due to both the SPM behavior and the existence of a surface amorphous shell layer (dead layer), the latter reducing systematically as the synthesis temperature increases.

  20. Changes in myosin S1 orientation and force induced by a temperature increase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Peter J; Bagni, Maria A; Colombini, Barbara; Amenitsch, Heinz; Bernstorff, Sigrid; Ashley, Christopher C; Cecchi, Giovanni; Ameritsch, Heinz

    2002-04-16

    Force generation in myosin-based motile systems is thought to result from an angular displacement of the myosin subfragment 1 (S1) tail domain with respect to the actin filament axis. In muscle, raised temperature increases the force generated by S1, implying a greater change in tail domain angular displacement. We used time-resolved x-ray diffraction to investigate the structural corollary of this force increase by measuring M3 meridional reflection intensity during sinusoidal length oscillations. This technique allows definition of S1 orientation with respect to the myofilament axis. M3 intensity changes were approximately sinusoid at low temperatures but became increasingly distorted as temperature was elevated, with the formation of a double intensity peak at maximum shortening. This increased distortion could be accounted for by assuming a shift in orientation of the tail domain of actin-bound S1 toward the orientation at which M3 intensity is maximal, which is consistent with a tail domain rotation model of force generation in which the tail approaches a more perpendicular projection from the thin filament axis at higher temperatures. In power stroke simulations, the angle between S1 tail mean position during oscillations and the position at maximum intensity decreased by 4.7 degrees, corresponding to a mean tail displacement toward the perpendicular of 0.73 nm for a temperature-induced force increase of 0.28 P(0) from 4 to 22 degrees C. Our findings suggest that at least 62% of crossbridge compliance is associated with the tail domain.

  1. High temperature increases the masculinization rate of the all-female (XX) rainbow trout "Mal" population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Karina; Jouanno, Elodie; Volff, Jean-Nicolas; Galiana-Arnoux, Delphine; Guyomard, René; Helary, Louise; Mourot, Brigitte; Fostier, Alexis; Quillet, Edwige; Guiguen, Yann

    2014-01-01

    Salmonids are generally considered to have a robust genetic sex determination system with a simple male heterogamety (XX/XY). However, spontaneous masculinization of XX females has been found in a rainbow trout population of gynogenetic doubled haploid individuals. The analysis of this masculinization phenotype transmission supported the hypothesis of the involvement of a recessive mutation (termed mal). As temperature effect on sex differentiation has been reported in some salmonid species, in this study we investigated in detail the potential implication of temperature on masculinization in this XX mal-carrying population. Seven families issued from XX mal-carrying parents were exposed from the time of hatching to different rearing water temperatures ((8, 12 and 18°C), and the resulting sex-ratios were confirmed by histological analysis of both gonads. Our results demonstrate that masculinization rates are strongly increased (up to nearly two fold) at the highest temperature treatment (18°C). Interestingly, we also found clear differences between temperatures on the masculinization of the left versus the right gonads with the right gonad consistently more often masculinized than the left one at lower temperatures (8 and 12°C). However, the masculinization rate is also strongly dependent on the genetic background of the XX mal-carrying families. Thus, masculinization in XX mal-carrying rainbow trout is potentially triggered by an interaction between the temperature treatment and a complex genetic background potentially involving some part of the genetic sex differentiation regulatory cascade along with some minor sex-influencing loci. These results indicate that despite its rather strict genetic sex determinism system, rainbow trout sex differentiation can be modulated by temperature, as described in many other fish species.

  2. Increased Kawasaki Disease Incidence Associated With Higher Precipitation and Lower Temperatures, Japan, 1991-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Joseph Y; Blase, Jennifer L; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

    2018-06-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile vasculitis, which primarily affects children. The etiology of KD is unknown; while certain characteristics of the disease suggest an infectious origin, genetic or environmental factors may also be important. Seasonal patterns of KD incidence are well documented, but it is unclear whether these patterns are caused by changes in climate or by other unknown seasonal effects. The relationship between KD incidence and deviations from expected temperature and precipitation were analyzed using KD incidence data from Japanese nationwide epidemiologic surveys (1991-2004) and climate data from 136 weather stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven separate Poisson-distributed generalized linear regression models were run to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on KD incidence in the same month as KD onset and the previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months, controlling for geography as well as seasonal and long-term trends in KD incidence. KD incidence was negatively associated with temperature in the previous 2, 3, 4 and 5 months and positively associated with precipitation in the previous 1 and 2 months. The model that best predicted variations in KD incidence used climate data from the previous 2 months. An increase in total monthly precipitation by 100 mm was associated with increased KD incidence (rate ratio [RR] 1.012, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005-1.019), and an increase of monthly mean temperature by 1°C was associated with decreased KD incidence (RR 0.984, 95% CI: 0.978-0.990). KD incidence was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation in previous months independent of other unknown seasonal factors. Climate data from the previous 2 months best predicted the variations in KD incidence. Although fairly minor, the effect of temperature and precipitation independent of season may provide additional clues to the etiology of KD.

  3. Stabilization of apoglobin by low temperature increases yield of soluble recombinant hemoglobin in Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weickert, M J; Pagratis, M; Curry, S R; Blackmore, R

    1997-01-01

    Accumulation of soluble recombinant hemoglobin (rHb1.1) in Escherichia coli requires proper protein folding, prosthetic group (heme) addition, and subunit assembly. This served as a new model system for the study of the effects of temperature, protein synthesis rates, and protein accumulation rates on protein solubility in E. coli. Fermentation expression of rHb1.1 at 30 degrees C from cultures containing a medium or high globin gene dosage (pBR-based or pUC-based plasmids with rHb1.1 genes under the control of the tac promoter) was compared. A medium gene dosage resulted in rHb1.1 accumulating to approximately 7% of the soluble cell protein, of which 78% was soluble. A high globin gene dosage resulted in a > or = 3-fold increase in total globin to 23 to 24% of the soluble cell protein, but 70% was insoluble. Accumulation of insoluble rHb1.1 began immediately upon induction. The proportion of rHb1.1 from the high globin gene dosage that accumulated as insoluble globin was affected by reducing (i) the inducer concentration and (ii) the temperature. Reducing the inducer concentration reduced globin synthesis up to eightfold but increased the proportion of soluble rHb1.1 to 93%. In contrast, total globin protein synthesis was barely affected by reducing the temperature from 30 to 26 degrees C, while soluble globin accumulation increased > 2-fold to approximately 15% of the soluble cell protein. The contrast between the effects of reducing rates of protein synthesis and accumulation and those of reducing temperature suggests that lower temperature stabilizes one or more folding intermediates. We propose a simplified physical model which integrates protein synthesis, folding, and heme association. This model shows that temperature-dependent apoglobin stability is the most critical factor in soluble rHb1.1 accumulation. PMID:9361418

  4. A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

    2018-03-01

    A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer

  5. Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of

  6. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-06-06

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

  7. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-01-01

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

  8. A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)

    2012-01-20

    The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.

  9. Increasing the efficiency of heating systems by reducing the flue gas temperature below the dew point

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremer, H.

    1981-06-01

    This paper deals with the fundamentals and technical possibilities of increasing the combustion efficiency of gas-fired heating units for domestic heating by cooling the flue gases below their water vapor saturation temperature. The improvement of the efficiency can be more than 15% in comparison even to modern warm water heating boilers. Important however is the availability of cooling fluids of sufficiently low temperatures which could be recirculated heating water, freshwater and air. Different possible applications of this method are discussed in detail.

  10. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  11. Powder free PECVD epitaxial silicon by plasma pulsing or increasing the growth temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wanghua; Maurice, Jean-Luc; Vanel, Jean-Charles; Cabarrocas, Pere Roca i.

    2018-06-01

    Crystalline silicon thin films are promising candidates for low cost and flexible photovoltaics. Among various synthesis techniques, epitaxial growth via low temperature plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition is an interesting choice because of two low temperature related benefits: low thermal budget and better doping profile control. However, increasing the growth rate is a tricky issue because the agglomeration of clusters required for epitaxy leads to powder formation in the plasma. In this work, we have measured precisely the time evolution of the self-bias voltage in silane/hydrogen plasmas at millisecond time scale, for different values of the direct-current bias voltage applied to the radio frequency (RF) electrode and growth temperatures. We demonstrate that the decisive factor to increase the epitaxial growth rate, i.e. the inhibition of the agglomeration of plasma-born clusters, can be obtained by decreasing the RF OFF time or increasing the growth temperature. The influence of these two parameters on the growth rate and epitaxial film quality is also presented.

  12. Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.

  13. Experimental study on coil of direct action solenoid valve with temperature increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lu; Liu Qianfeng; Bo Hanliang

    2012-01-01

    Hydraulic control rod drive technology (HCRDT) is a newly invented patent and Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University owns HCRDT's independent intellectual property rights. The integrated valve which is made up of three direct action solenoid valves is the key part of this technology, so the performance of the solenoid valve directly affects the function of the integrated valve and the HCRDT. Based on the conditions occurring in the operation of the control rod hydraulic drive system, the coil of the direct action solenoid valve with temperature increasing was studied by the experiment and analyzed by ANSYS code. The result shows that the temperature of the coil for the solenoid valve increases with the current increasing firstly. The temperature of the inner wall of the coil is higher than that of the exterior wall. The temperature of the middle coil is higher than that of the edge of the coil. The design of the direct action solenoid valve can be optimized. (authors)

  14. Increase of child car seat temperature in cars parked in the outpatient parking lot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimura, Tetsu; Suzue, Junji; Kamada, Makoto; Ozaki, Yukiko; Tananari, Yoshifumi; Maeno, Yasuki; Ito, Shinichi; Nishino, Hiroshi; Kakimoto, Noriko; Yamakawa, Rumi

    2011-12-01

    A guideline for the safe use of child car seats (CS) was published by the Japan Pediatric Society in 2008. There have been few studies of the increase of temperature of a CS in parked cars. The aim of this study was to determine the change in the temperature of the CS in cars parked in full sun. The temperature of CS was measured during summer (July and August) in 2006, 2007, and 2008. The CS used in this study (n= 50) were for children (≤ 6 years old) who were taken by car to Sugimura Children's Medical Clinic. Temperatures were only measured on sunny days. Measurements were performed from 09.00 to 17.00 hours. Thermochron (Thermochron i-Button: G type, Maxim Integrated Products, CA, USA) was used to measure the temperatures. The maximum temperatures of CS were compared in time at the clinic, taking into consideration seat colors, and car colors. Of the 50 cars, three cars were excluded due to being in the shade while the temperature was measured. A total of 47 cars were used for this study. The temperature of the CS ranged from 38.0 to 65.5°C (47.8 ± 5.8°C). Eighteen CS (38.3%) reached a temperature of 50°C or above. The maximum temperature of the 13.00-15.00-hours group was significantly higher than that of the 09.00-11.00-hours group (P= 0.035). The CS temperatures in the black car group were significantly higher than those of the white car group (P= 0.013). CS may become very hot while a car is parked in sun, especially if the car and the CS are black, so the CS should be cooled before a young child is placed in it. Guardians of small children should be aware of this risk. © 2011 The Authors. Pediatrics International © 2011 Japan Pediatric Society.

  15. A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012, have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007 to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI.

  16. Global Model of Time-Modulated Electronegative Discharges for Neutral Radical and Electron Temperature Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.

    2003-10-01

    Control and reduction of neutral radical flux/ion flux ratio and electron temperature Te is required for next generation etching in the microelectronics industry. We investigate time-modulated power for these purposes using a volume-averaged (global) oxygen discharge model, We consider pressures of 10-50 mTorr and plasma densities of 10^10-10^11 cm-3. In this regime, the discharge is found to be weakly electronegative. The modulation period and the duty ratio (on-time/period) are varied to determine the optimum conditions for reduction of FR= O-atom flux/ion flux and T_e. Two chambers with different height/diameter ratios (SMART Contract SM99-10051.

  17. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  18. AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.

    2001-02-01

    The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.

  19. Study on Increasing High Temperature pH(t) to Reduce Iron Corrosion Products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Dong Man; Hur, Nam Yong; Kim, Waang Bae

    2011-01-01

    The transportation and deposition of iron corrosion products are important elements that affect both the steam generator (SG) integrity and secondary system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) nuclear power plants. Most of iron corrosion products are generated on carbon steel materials due to flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). The several parameters like water chemistry, temperature, hydrodynamic, and steel composition affect FAC. It is well established that the at-temperature pH of the deaerated water system has a first order effect on the FAC rate of carbon steels through nuclear industry researches. In order to reduce transportation and deposition of iron corrosion products, increasing pH(t) tests were applied on secondary system of A, B units. Increasing pH(t) successfully reduced flow accelerated corrosion. The effect of increasing pH(t) to inhibit FAC was identified through the experiment and pH(t) evaluation in this paper

  20. Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

    2018-01-01

    A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

  1. An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

  2. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  3. Can the Global Adoption of Genetically Improved Farmed Fish Increase Beyond 10%, and How?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Olesen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The annual production from global aquaculture has increased rapidly from 2.6 million tons or 3.9% of the total supply of fish, shellfish and mollusks in 1970, to 66.7 million tons or 42.2% in 2012, while capture fisheries have more or less leveled out at about 90 million tons per year since the turn of the century. Consequently, the future seafood supply is likely to depend on a further increase of aquaculture production. Unlike terrestrial animal farming, less than 10% of the aquaculture production comes from domesticated and selectively bred farm stocks. This situation has substantial consequences in terms of poorer resource efficiency, poorer product quality and poorer animal welfare. The history of biological and technical challenges when establishing selective breeding programs for aquaculture is discussed, and it is concluded that most aquaculture species may now be domesticated and improved by selection. However, the adoption of selective breeding in aquaculture is progressing slowly. This paper reports on a study carried out in 2012 to identify key issues to address in promoting the development of genetically improved aquaculture stocks. The study involved semi structured interviews of 34 respondents from different sectors of the aquaculture society in East and Southeast Asia, where 76% of the global aquaculture production is located. Based on the interviews and literature review, three key factors are identified: (i long-term public commitment is often needed for financial support of the breeding nucleus operation (at least during the first five to ten generations of selection; (ii training at all levels (from government officers and university staff to breeding nucleus and hatchery operators, as well as farmers; and (iii development of appropriate business models for benefit sharing between the breeding, multiplier and grow-out operators (whether being public, cooperative or private operations. The public support should be invested in

  4. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  5. Gyrokinetic global analysis of ion temperature gradient driven mode in reversed shear tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idomura, Y.; Tokuda, S.; Kishimoto, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A new toroidal gyrokinetic particle code has been developed to study the ion temperature gradient driven (ITG) turbulence in reactor relevant tokamak parameters. We use a new method based on a canonical Maxwellian distribution F CM (P φ , ε, μ), which is defined by three constants of motion in the axisymmetric toroidal system, the canonical angular momentum P φ , the energy ε, and the magnetic moment μ. A quasi-ballooning representation enables linear and nonlinear high-m,n global calculations with a good numerical convergence. Conservation properties are improved by using the optimized loading method. From comprehensive linear global analyses over a wide range of an unstable toroidal mode number spectrum (n=0∼100) in large tokamak parameters (a/ρ ti =320∼460), properties of the ITG modes in reversed shear tokamaks are discussed. In the nonlinear simulation, it is found that a new method based on F CM can simulate a zonal flow damping correctly, and spurious zonal flow oscillations, which are observed in a conventional method based on a local Maxwellian distribution F LM (ψ, ε, μ), do not appear in the nonlinear regime. (author)

  6. A model–data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lohmann

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST in the models shows a high-latitude cooling and a low-latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 yr. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We test if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We explore whether consideration of different growing seasons and depth habitats of the planktonic organisms used for temperature reconstruction could lead to a better agreement of model results with proxy data on a regional scale. The extent to which temporal shifts in growing season or vertical shifts in depth habitat can reduce model–data misfits is determined. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model–data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modelled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behaviour of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Results indicate that modelled and reconstructed

  7. Modelling forest growth and carbon storage in response to increasing CO2 and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    1999-11-01

    The response of plant growth to increasing climate change remains one of the unresolved issues in understanding the future of the terrestrial biosphere. It was investigated here by using the comprehensive forest growth model CenW 1.0.5 which integrates routines for the fluxes of carbon and water, interception of radiation and the cycling of nutrients. It was run with water and/or nutrient limitations on a background of naturally observed climate at Canberra, Australia. It was parameterised for Pinus radiata, the commercially most important plantation species in Australia. The simulations showed that under water-limited conditions, forest growth was highly sensitive to doubling CO2,with growth increases of over 50% on average and even greater increases in dry years. In contrast, when water supply was adequate, but nutrients were limiting, growth increases were smaller, with an initial increase of about 15% during the first year after CO2 was doubled. This growth increase diminished further over subsequent years so that after 20years, there was virtually no remaining effect. This diminishing response was due to developing nutrient limitations caused by extra carbon input which immobilised nutrients in the soil. When both water and nutrients were adequate, growth was increased by about 15 20% with no decrease over time. Increasing ambient temperature had a positive effect on growth under nutrient limited conditions by stimulating nitrogen mineralisation rates, but had very little effect when nutrients were non-limiting. Responses were qualitatively similar when conditions were changed gradually. In response to increasing CO2 by 2µmol mol1year1 over 50years, growth was increased by only 1% under nutrient-limited condition but by 16% under water-limited conditions. When temperature and CO2 were both changed to emulate conditions between 1950 and 2030, growth was enhanced between 5 and 15% over the 80-year period due to the effect of CO2 on photosynthesis and water

  8. Adaptation of root growth to increased ambient temperature requires auxin and ethylene coordination in Arabidopsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fei, Qionghui; Wei, Shaodong; Zhou, Zhaoyang

    2017-01-01

    Key message: A fresh look at the roles of auxin, ethylene, and polar auxin transport during the plant root growth response to warmer ambient temperature (AT). Abstract: The ambient temperature (AT) affects plant growth and development. Plants can sense changes in the AT, but how this change......-naphthaleneacetic acid, but not indole-3-acetic acid (IAA). AUX1, PIN1, and PIN2 are involved in the ckrc1-1 root gravity response under increased AT. Furthermore, CKRC1-dependent auxin biosynthesis was critical for maintaining PIN1, PIN2, and AUX1 expression at elevated temperatures. Ethylene was also involved...... in this regulation through the ETR1 pathway. Higher AT can promote CKRC1-dependent auxin biosynthesis by enhancing ETR1-mediated ethylene signaling. Our research suggested that the interaction between auxin and ethylene and that the interaction-mediated polar auxin transport play important roles during the plant...

  9. Increased Heat Generation in Postcardiac Arrest Patients During Targeted Temperature Management Is Associated With Better Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uber, Amy J; Perman, Sarah M; Cocchi, Michael N; Patel, Parth V; Ganley, Sarah E; Portmann, Jocelyn M; Donnino, Michael W; Grossestreuer, Anne V

    2018-04-03

    relationship between outcomes and time to Ttarget was no longer significant. Controlling for location, witnessed arrest, age, initial rhythm, and neuromuscular blockade use, increased heat generation was associated with better neurologic (adjusted odds ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 1.00-1.03]; p = 0.039) and survival (adjusted odds ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 1.00-1.03]; p = 0.045) outcomes. Increased heat generation during targeted temperature management initiation is associated with better outcomes at hospital discharge and may affect the relationship between time to Ttarget and outcomes.

  10. Increased Global DNA Hypomethylation in Distant Metastatic and Dedifferentiated Thyroid Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Hesselink, Esther N; Zafon, Carles; Villalmanzo, Núria; Iglesias, Carmela; van Hemel, Bettien M; Klein Hesselink, Mariëlle S; Montero-Conde, Cristina; Buj, Raquel; Mauricio, Dídac; Peinado, Miguel A; Puig-Domingo, Manel; Riesco-Eizaguirre, Garcilaso; Reverter, Jordi L; Robledo, Mercedes; Links, Thera P; Jordà, Mireia

    Context: Global DNA hypomethylation is a major event for the development and progression of cancer, although the significance in thyroid cancer remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate its role in thyroid cancer progression and its potential as a prognostic marker. Methods: Global

  11. Global food supply and the impacts of increased use of biofuels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nonhebel, Sanderine

    In recent years prices on global food markets showed large fluctuations. The use of biomass as energy source (biofuel) in the developed world is frequently mentioned as one of the reasons for this instability. This paper compares the need for biofuel and needs for food and feed on global scale. A

  12. Downstream changes in spring-fed stream invertebrate communities: the effect of increased temperature range?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell G. DEATH

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Reduced thermal amplitude has been highlighted as a limiting factor for aquatic invertebrate diversity in springs. Moving downstream water temperature range increases and invertebrate richness is expected to change accordingly. In the present study temperature patterns were investigated in seven spring-fed streams, between April 2001 and November 2002, and compared to five run-off-fed streams to assess the degree of crenic temperature constancy. Temperature and physico-chemical characteristics of the water, and food resource levels were measured, and the invertebrate fauna collected at 4 distances (0, 100, 500 m and 1 km from seven springs in the North and South Islands of New Zealand. Temperature variability was greater for run-off-fed streams than for springs, and increased in the spring-fed streams with distance from the source. Periphyton and physico-chemical characteristics of the water did not change markedly over the 1 km studied, with the exception of water velocity and organic matter biomass, which increased and decreased, respectively. The rate of increase in temperature amplitude differed greatly for the studied springs, probably being affected by flow, altitude, and the number and type of tributaries (i.e., spring- or run-off-fed joining the spring-fed stream channel. Longitudinal changes in the number and evenness of invertebrate taxa were positively correlated to thermal amplitude (rs = 0.8. Moving downstream, invertebrate communities progressively incorporated taxa with higher mobility and taxa more common in nearby run-off-fed streams. Chironomids and non-insect taxa were denser at the sources. Chironomid larvae also numerically dominated communities 100 and 500 m downstream from the sources, together with Pycnocentria spp. and Zelolessica spp., while taxa such as Hydora sp. and Hydraenidae beetles, the mayflies Deleatidium spp. and Coloburiscus humeralis, and the Trichoptera Pycnocentrodes spp., all had greater abundances 1 km

  13. Potential impact of increased temperature and CO2 on particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the Southeastern Bering Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A. Lee

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of elevated sea surface temperature (SST and pCO2 on algal community structure and particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPp concentrations in the southeastern Bering Sea was examined using a shipboard “Ecostat” continuous culture system. The ecostat system was used to mimic the conditions projected to exist in the world's oceans by the end of this century (i.e. elevated pCO2 (750 ppm and elevated SST (ambient + 4°C. Two experiments were conducted using natural phytoplankton assemblages from the high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC central basin and from the middle domain of the southeastern continental shelf. At the HNLC site, the relative abundances of haptophytes and pelagophytes were higher and the relative abundance of diatoms lower under “greenhouse” conditions (i.e. combined 750 ppm CO2 and elevated temperature than control conditions (380 ppm CO2 and ambient temperature. This shift in algal community structure was accompanied by increases in DMSPp (2–3 fold, DMSPp:Chl a (2–3 fold and DMSP:PON (2 fold. At the continental shelf site, the changes in the relative abundances of haptophytes, pelagophytes and diatoms under “greenhouse” conditions were similar to those observed at the HNLC site, with 2.5 fold increases in DMSPp, 50–100% increases in DMSPp:Chl a and 1.8 fold increases in DMSP:PON. At both locations, changes in community structure and the DMSPp parameters were largely driven by increasing temperature. The observed changes were also consistent with the phytoplankton-DMS-albedo climate feedback mechanism proposed in the Charlson-Lovelock-Andreae-Warren (CLAW hypothesis.

  14. Cellulose-Hemicellulose Interactions at Elevated Temperatures Increase Cellulose Recalcitrance to Biological Conversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mittal, Ashutosh [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Himmel, Michael E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kumar, Rajeev [University of California, Riverside; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; ; Smith, Micholas Dean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; University of Tennessee; Petridis, Loukas [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; University of Tennessee; Ong, Rebecca G. [Michigan Technological University; Cai, Charles M. [University of California, Riverside; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Balan, Venkatesh [University of Houston; Dale, Bruce E. [Michigan State University; Ragauskas, Arthur J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; University of Tennessee; Smith, Jeremy C. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; University of Tennessee; Wyman, Charles E. [University of California, Riverside; Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    2018-01-23

    It has been previously shown that cellulose-lignin droplets' strong interactions, resulting from lignin coalescence and redisposition on cellulose surface during thermochemical pretreatments, increase cellulose recalcitrance to biological conversion, especially at commercially viable low enzyme loadings. However, information on the impact of cellulose-hemicellulose interactions on cellulose recalcitrance following relevant pretreatment conditions are scarce. Here, to investigate the effects of plausible hemicellulose precipitation and re-association with cellulose on cellulose conversion, different pretreatments were applied to pure Avicel(R) PH101 cellulose alone and Avicel mixed with model hemicellulose compounds followed by enzymatic hydrolysis of resulting solids at both low and high enzyme loadings. Solids produced by pretreatment of Avicel mixed with hemicelluloses (AMH) were found to contain about 2 to 14.6% of exogenous, precipitated hemicelluloses and showed a remarkably much lower digestibility (up to 60%) than their respective controls. However, the exogenous hemicellulosic residues that associated with Avicel following high temperature pretreatments resulted in greater losses in cellulose conversion than those formed at low temperatures, suggesting that temperature plays a strong role in the strength of cellulose-hemicellulose association. Molecular dynamics simulations of hemicellulosic xylan and cellulose were found to further support this temperature effect as the xylan-cellulose interactions were found to substantially increase at elevated temperatures. Furthermore, exogenous, precipitated hemicelluloses in pretreated AMH solids resulted in a larger drop in cellulose conversion than the delignified lignocellulosic biomass containing comparably much higher natural hemicellulose amounts. Increased cellulase loadings or supplementation of cellulase with xylanases enhanced cellulose conversion for most pretreated AMH solids; however, this approach

  15. Decreased solar radiation and increased temperature combine to facilitate fouling by marine non-indigenous species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Won; Micheli, Fiorenza

    2013-01-01

    Studies of the effects of climate changes on marine biofouling have mainly focused on the effects of temperature increase, but a decrease in the level of solar radiation could also influence the establishment and persistence of fouling species. To test if decreased solar radiation and/or increased temperature influenced marine fouling communities, solar radiation, and temperature were manipulated by deploying shading devices in the intertidal zone of a central California estuary. Non-indigenous species (NIS) recruiting to artificial substrata had greater coverage under the shading treatments than under transparent plates, indicating that low radiation facilitates recruitment and growth of NIS. In contrast, the coverage of NIS underneath warmer black plates was higher than that on white plates. Furthermore, spatial comparisons of recruitment showed that NIS had a tendency to grow better in the warmer region of the estuary whereas native species showed the opposing trend. The results suggest that both lower radiation and higher temperature may facilitate the spread of marine NIS.

  16. Enhanced flux creep in Nb-Ti superconductors after an increase in temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, R.W.; Goldfarb, R.B.

    1991-01-01

    The magnetic fields of Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) dipole magnets change with time when the magnets are operated at constant current. The decay of the field is thought to be a consequence of flux creep in the Nb-Ti filaments in the superconducting cables. However, measured magnetic relaxation of small samples of SSC cable as a function of time is unlike the large decays that are observed in the fields of the actual magnets. We have made relaxation measurements on sample SSC conductors at 3.5 and 4.0 K after field cycling. The decay at both temperatures was 2.8% in 50 min. However, the relaxation measured after a temperature increase from 3.5 to 4.0 K was 4.8% in 50 min. A likely reason for the greater magnetization decay is that, after an increase in temperature, the Nb-Ti is in a supercritical state, with shielding currents flowing at a density greater than the new critical current density. This causes enhanced flux creep. We suggest that a small temperature rise during the operation of SSC magnets may contribute to the unexpectedly large magnetic field decay

  17. Designing for multiple global user populations: increasing resource allocation efficiency for greater sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadadur, G; Parkinson, M B

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a method to identify opportunities for increasing the efficiency of raw material allocation decisions for products that are simultaneously targeted at multiple user populations around the world. The values of 24 body measures at certain key percentiles were used to estimate the best-fitting anthropometric distributions for female and male adults in nine national populations, which were selected to represent the diverse target markets multinational companies must design for. These distributions were then used to synthesize body measure data for combined populations with a 1:1 female:male ratio. An anthropometric range metric (ARM) was proposed for assessing the variation of these body measures across the populations. At any percentile, ARM values were calculated as the percentage difference between the highest and lowest anthropometric values across the considered user populations. Based on their magnitudes, plots of ARM values computed between the 1st and 99 th percentiles for each body measure were grouped into low, medium, and high categories. This classification of body measures was proposed as a means of selecting the most suitable strategies for designing raw material-efficient products. The findings in this study and the contributions of subsequent work along these lines are expected to help achieve greater efficiencies in resource allocation in global product development.

  18. Impact of increased mutagenesis on adaptation to high temperature in bacteriophage Qβ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arribas, María; Cabanillas, Laura; Kubota, Kirina; Lázaro, Ester

    2016-10-01

    RNA viruses replicate with very high error rates, which makes them more sensitive to additional increases in this parameter. This fact has inspired an antiviral strategy named lethal mutagenesis, which is based on the artificial increase of the error rate above a threshold incompatible with virus infectivity. A relevant issue concerning lethal mutagenesis is whether incomplete treatments might enhance the adaptive possibilities of viruses. We have addressed this question by subjecting an RNA virus, the bacteriophage Qβ, to different transmission regimes in the presence or the absence of sublethal concentrations of the mutagenic nucleoside analogue 5-azacytidine (AZC). Populations obtained were subsequently exposed to a non-optimal temperature and analyzed to determine their consensus sequences. Our results show that previously mutagenized populations rapidly fixed a specific set of mutations upon propagation at the new temperature, suggesting that the expansion of the mutant spectrum caused by AZC has an influence on later evolutionary behavior. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Lower growth temperature increases alternative pathway capacity and alternative oxidase protein in tobacco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanlerberghe, G C; McIntosh, L

    1992-09-01

    Suspension cells of NT1 tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L. cv bright yellow) have been used to study the effect of growth temperature on the CN-resistant, salicylhydroxamic acid-sensitive alternative pathway of respiration. Mitochondria isolated from cells maintained at 30 degrees C had a low capacity to oxidize succinate via the alternative pathway, whereas mitochondria isolated from cells 24 h after transfer to 18 degrees C displayed, on average, a 5-fold increase in this capacity (from 7 to 32 nanoatoms oxygen per milligram protein per minute). This represented an increase in alternative pathway capacity from 18 to 45% of the total capacity of electron transport. This increased capacity was lost upon transfer of cells back to 30 degrees C. A monoclonal antibody to the terminal oxidase of the alternative pathway (the alternative oxidase) from Sauromatum guttatum (T.E. Elthon, R.L. Nickels, L. McIntosh [1989] Plant Physiology 89: 1311-1317) recognized a 35-kilodalton mitochondrial protein in tobacco. There was an excellent correlation between the capacity of the alternative path in isolated tobacco mitochondria and the levels of this 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein. Cycloheximide could inhibit both the increased level of the 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein and the increased alternative pathway capacity normally seen upon transfer to 18 degrees C. We conclude that transfer of tobacco cells to the lower temperature increases the capacity of the alternative pathway due, at least in part, to de novo synthesis of the 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein.

  20. Effects of increased temperature and CO{sub 2} on soil quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ogner, G.

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The Norwegian Forest Research Institute has studied the effects of increased CO{sub 2} and temperature on forest soil, soil leachate and plants in an open top chamber experiment. The purpose was to analyze the changes in soil parameters and the leaching of elements. Nitrate and aluminium received special attention. The growth of Norway spruce and birch was followed, and its impact on the soil parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the temperature increase of the soil and consequently an increased turnover of soil organic matter had the major effect on the quality of soil leachates. CO{sub 2} was less important. Leaching of NO{sub 3}{sup -} was high from control lysimeters with moss cover. Lysimeters with birch hardly leached NO{sub 3}{sup -} at all. Spruce is in an intermediate position. Increased leaching of Al{sup n+} is found for moss lysimeters. Leachates from birch lysimeters have high concentrations of Al{sup n+} only at the end of the growth seasons. Plant growth is to some extent increased by the CO{sub 2} treatment. Birch grew well in all lysimeters and all treatments, spruce developed clear symptoms of stress. This result does not fit with the increased availability of nutrients in soil solution

  1. Global embedding of D-dimensional black holes with a cosmological constant in Minkowskian spacetimes: Matching between Hawking temperature and Unruh temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Nuno Loureiro; Dias, Oscar J.C.; Lemos, Jose P.S.

    2004-01-01

    We study the matching between the Hawking temperature of a large class of static D-dimensional black holes and the Unruh temperature of the corresponding higher dimensional Rindler spacetime. In order to accomplish this task we find the global embedding of the D-dimensional black holes into a higher dimensional Minkowskian spacetime, called the global embedding Minkowskian spacetime procedure (GEMS procedure). These global embedding transformations are important on their own, since they provide a powerful tool that simplifies the study of black hole physics by working instead, but equivalently, in an accelerated Rindler frame in a flat background geometry. We discuss neutral and charged Tangherlini black holes with and without cosmological constant, and in the negative cosmological constant case, we consider the three allowed topologies for the horizons (spherical, cylindrical/toroidal, and hyperbolic)

  2. The Role of Global University Rankings in the Process of Increasing the Competitiveness of Russian Education in the Context of Globalization and the Export of Educational Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avralev, Nikita; Efimova, Irina

    2015-01-01

    Article is devoted to the new conditions for the development of society characterized by the reconstruction of the course of higher education by increasing the competitiveness of Russian universities in the world scientific and educational space and the global university rankings as indicators of the implementation of the integration process and…

  3. Event-related potentials reveal increased distraction by salient global objects in older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiegand, Iris; Finke, Kathrin; Töllner, Thomas

    Age-related changes in visual functions influence how older individuals perceive and react upon objects in their environment. In particular, older individuals might be more distracted by highly salient, irrelevant information. Kanizsa figures induce a ‘global precedence’ effect, which reflects...... a processing advantage for salient whole-object representations relative to configurations of local elements not inducing a global form. We investigated event-related potential (ERP) correlates of age-related decline in visual abilities, and specifically, distractibility by salient global objects in visual...

  4. Opinion: do we have the architecture for health aid right? Increasing global aid effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godal, Tore

    2005-11-01

    The advent of the new millennium has witnessed the embracing of a different perspective on global health aid. New and innovative mechanisms in health-aid financing are leading to new opportunities, focused on greater innovation, risk taking and speed. However, these opportunities might not fully materialize if the traditional approaches of channeling and using funds are followed. To maximize global aid effectiveness and to have a realistic chance of achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the implementation of a holistic approach to the global architecture of health aid will be essential.

  5. Decadal increase in seagrass biomass and temperature at the CARICOMP site in Bocas del Toro, Panama

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge M. López-Calderón

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity Program (CARICOMP was launched in 1993 to study regional long-term interactions between land and sea, taking standardized measurements of productivity and biomass of mangroves, coral reefs and seagrasses. Since 1999 continuous measurements of seagrass (Thalassia testudinum parameters as well as environmental data have been recorded in Caribbean Panama. Replicate stations were selected near the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Bocas del Toro. Sediment cores and quadrants were placed there to estimate biomass and productivity, respectively. Mean values for productivity, standing crop, turnover rate, total dry biomass, and Leaf Area Index were 1.74gDW/m²/d, 66.6gDW/m², 2.62%/d, 1 481 gDW/m², and 4.65, respectively. Total dry biomass (shoots, rhizomes and roots and LAI of T. testudinum increased significantly during the study period. Mean values for total rainfall, Secchi disk depth, sea surface temperature, and salinity were 3 498mm, 8.24m, 28.79°C, and 32.26psu, respectively. Sea surface temperature was the only environmental variable with a statistically significant change, increasing from 1999 to 2010. Correlation between sea surface temperature and T. testudinum parameters (total biomass and LAI were both positive and significant. Human population has increased dramatically over the last ten years in Bocas del Toro region, increasing pressure (deforestation, runoff, wastewater over coastal ecosystems (seagrasses, mangroves, coral reefs. Change in the abundance of T. testudinum may be linked to ocean warming, as a consequence to satisfy plant’s metabolic requirements, although other local factors need to be analyzed (reduced grazing and increased eutrophication. A further warming of the ocean could have a negative effect on T. testudinum population, increasing respiratory demands and microbial metabolism.

  6. What to eat in a warming world: do increased temperatures necessitate hazardous duty pay?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, L. Embere; Chalfoun, Anna D.

    2018-01-01

    Contemporary climate change affects nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions and resource availability. Changes in resource selection may allow individuals to offset climatic stress, thereby providing a mechanism for persistence amidst warming conditions. Whereas the role of predation risk in food choice has been studied broadly, the extent to which individuals respond to thermoregulatory risk by changing resource preferences is unclear. We addressed whether individuals compensated for temperature-related reductions in foraging time by altering forage preferences, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model species. We tested two hypotheses: (1) food-quality hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should select higher-quality vegetation in return for accepting a physiologically riskier feeding situation; and (2) food-availability hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should prioritize foraging quickly, thereby decreasing selection for higher-quality food. We quantified the composition and quality (% moisture, % nitrogen, and fiber content) of available and harvested vegetation, and deployed a network of temperature sensors to measure in situ conditions for 30 individuals, during July–Sept., 2015. Individuals exposed to more extreme daytime temperatures showed increased selection for high-nitrogen and for low-fiber vegetation, demonstrating strong support for the food-quality hypothesis. By contrast, pikas that experienced warmer conditions did not reduce selection for any of the three vegetation-quality metrics, as predicted by the food-availability hypothesis. By shifting resource-selection patterns, temperature-limited animals may be able to proximately buffer some of the negative effects associated with rapidly warming environments, provided that sufficient resources remain on the landscape.

  7. Intrapulpal Temperature Increase During Er:YAG Laser-Aided Debonding of Ceramic Brackets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilanci, Hilal; Yildirim, Zeynep Beyza; Ramoglu, Sabri Ilhan

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the temperature changes in the pulp chamber while using a newly introduced application of Er:YAG laser to debond ceramic brackets in a study model with a pulpal circulation with and without thermocycled samples. An esthetic alternative to stainless steel brackets, ceramic brackets have been proposed. However, because of their low fracture resistance and high bond strengths, ceramic brackets can cause a problem when they are being removed using conventional techniques. Experimental Groups A and B were established for samples with or without thermocycling. The same 20 maxillary central incisor and 20 premolar teeth were used in both groups. Pulpal blood microcirculation was simulated using an apparatus described in a previous study. Monocrystalline brackets were bonded by using Transbond XT. In Group A, brackets were debonded using the Er:YAG laser (600 mJ, 2 Hz, long pulse, and no air or water spray) after being stored in distilled water for 24 h. In Group B, brackets were debonded using the same laser system as that used in Group A after being stored in distilled water for 24 h and then thermocycled for a total of 5000 cycles between 5°C and 55°C. The laser irradiation duration and intrapulpal temperature changes were measured. In Group B, the intrapulpal temperature increase of the central incisors was significantly higher than that of the premolar teeth. In the central incisor and premolar teeth groups, there were no statistically significant difference between Groups A and B (p > 0.05). A positive correlation was found between laser irradiation duration and temperature increase (p brackets. This method can be used safely under the consideration of intrapulpal temperature changes.

  8. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

  9. How Do You Increase Students' Global Learning in the Classroom?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fezzey, Hilary N.; Fujieda, Eri; Goerdt, Lynn Amerman; Kahler, Heather; Nikoi, Ephraim

    2017-01-01

    This chapter will discuss global awareness in five distinctive disciplines (Communications, Literature, Mathematics, Social Work, and Sociology). Comparisons between the pedagogies in the disciplines focus on academic settings other than study abroad.

  10. Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori D. Bothwell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Decomposing litter in forest ecosystems supplies nutrients to plants, carbon to heterotrophic soil microorganisms and is a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Despite its essential role in carbon and nutrient cycling, the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter decay in tropical forest ecosystems remains poorly resolved, especially in tropical montane wet forests where the warming trend may be amplified compared to tropical wet forests at lower elevations. We quantified leaf litter decomposition rates along a highly constrained 5.2 °C mean annual temperature (MAT gradient in tropical montane wet forests on the Island of Hawaii. Dominant vegetation, substrate type and age, soil moisture, and disturbance history are all nearly constant across this gradient, allowing us to isolate the effect of rising MAT on leaf litter decomposition and nutrient release. Leaf litter decomposition rates were a positive linear function of MAT, causing the residence time of leaf litter on the forest floor to decline by ∼31 days for each 1 °C increase in MAT. Our estimate of the Q10 temperature coefficient for leaf litter decomposition was 2.17, within the commonly reported range for heterotrophic organic matter decomposition (1.5–2.5 across a broad range of ecosystems. The percentage of leaf litter nitrogen (N remaining after six months declined linearly with increasing MAT from ∼88% of initial N at the coolest site to ∼74% at the warmest site. The lack of net N immobilization during all three litter collection periods at all MAT plots indicates that N was not limiting to leaf litter decomposition, regardless of temperature. These results suggest that leaf litter decay in tropical montane wet forests may be more sensitive to rising MAT than in tropical lowland wet forests, and that increased rates of N release from decomposing litter could delay or prevent progressive N limitation to net primary productivity with climate warming.

  11. Students’ Perceived Heat-Health Symptoms Increased with Warmer Classroom Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalin Bidassey-Manilal

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Temperatures in Africa are expected to increase by the end of the century. Heat-related health impacts and perceived health symptoms are potentially a problem, especially in public schools with limited resources. Students (n = 252 aged ~14–18 years from eight high schools completed an hourly heat-health symptom log over 5 days. Data loggers measured indoor classroom temperatures. A high proportion of students felt tired (97.2%, had low concentration (96.8% and felt sleepy (94.1% during at least one hour on any day. There were statistically significant correlations, when controlling for school cluster effect and time of day, between indoor temperatures ≥32 °C and students who felt tired and found it hard to breathe. Consistently higher indoor classroom temperatures were observed in classrooms constructed of prefabricated asbestos sheeting with corrugated iron roof and converted shipping container compared to brick classrooms. Longitudinal studies in multiple seasons and different classroom building types are needed.

  12. Development and evaluation of a HEPA filter for increased strength and resistance to elevated temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, H.; Bergman, W.; Fretthold, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed an improved HEPA filter for increased strength and resistance to elevated temperature to improve the reliability of HEPA filters under accident conditions. The improvements to the HEPA filter consist of a silicone rubber sealant and a new HEPA medium reinforced with a glass cloth. Several prototype filters were built and evaluated for temperature and pressure resistance and resistance to rough handling. The temperature resistance test consisted of exposing the HEPA filter to 1,000 scan at 700 degrees F for five minutes. The pressure resistance test consisted of exposing the HEPA filter to a differential pressure of 10 in. w.g. using a water saturated air flow at 95 degrees F. For the rough handling test, we used a vibrating machine designated the Q110. DOP filter efficiency tests were performed before and after each of the environmental tests. In addition to following the standard practice of using a separate new filter for each environmental test, we also subjected the same filter to the elevated temperature test followed by the pressure resistance test. The efficiency test results show that the improved HEPA filter is significantly better than the standard HEPA filter

  13. Development and evaluation of a HEPA filter for increased strength and resistance to elevated temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, H.; Bergman, W.; Fretthold, J.K.

    1993-01-01

    We have completed a preliminary study of an improved HEPA filter for increased strength and resistance to elevated temperature to improve the reliability of the standard deep pleated HEPA filter under accident conditions. The improvements to the HEPA filter consist of a silicone rubber sealant and a new HEPA medium reinforced with a glass cloth. Three prototype filters were built and evaluated for temperature and pressure resistance and resistance to rough handling. The temperature resistance test consisted of exposing the HEPA filter to 1,000 scan (1,700 m 3 /hr) at 700 degrees F (371 degrees C) for five minutes.The pressure resistance test consisted of exposing the HEPA filter to a differential pressure of 10 in. w.g. (2.5 kPa) using a water saturated air flow at 95 degrees F (35 degrees C). For the rough handling test, we used a vibrating machine designated the Q110. DOP filter efficiency tests were performed before and after each of the environmental tests. In addition to following the standard practice of using a separate new filter for each environmental test, we also subjected the same filter to the elevated temperature test followed by the pressure resistance test. The efficiency test results show that the improved HEPA filter is significantly better than the standard HEPA filter. Further studies are recommended to evaluate the improved HEPA filter and to assess its performance under more severe accident conditions

  14. Light availability and temperature, not increased CO2, will structure future meadows of Posidonia oceanica

    KAUST Repository

    Hendriks, Iris E.

    2017-02-15

    We evaluated the photosynthetic performance of Posidonia oceanica during short-term laboratory exposures to ambient and elevated temperatures (24–25°C and 29–30°C) warming and pCO2 (380, 750 and 1000ppm pCO2) under normal and low light conditions (200 and 40μmol photons m−2s−1 respectively). Plant growth was measured at the low light regime and showed a negative response to warming. Light was a critical factor for photosynthetic performance, although we found no evidence of compensation of photosynthetic quantum efficiency in high light. Relative Electron Rate Transport (rETRmax) was higher in plants incubated in high light, but not affected by pCO2 or temperature. The saturation irradiance (Ik) was negatively affected by temperature. We conclude that elevated CO2 does not enhance photosynthetic activity and growth, in the short term for P. oceanica, while temperature has a direct negative effect on growth. Low light availability also negatively affected photosynthetic performance during the short experimental period examined here. Therefore increasing concentrations of CO2 may not compensate for predicted future conditions of warmer water and higher turbidity for seagrass meadows.

  15. Light availability and temperature, not increased CO2, will structure future meadows of Posidonia oceanica

    KAUST Repository

    Hendriks, Iris E.; Olsen, Ylva S.; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    We evaluated the photosynthetic performance of Posidonia oceanica during short-term laboratory exposures to ambient and elevated temperatures (24–25°C and 29–30°C) warming and pCO2 (380, 750 and 1000ppm pCO2) under normal and low light conditions (200 and 40μmol photons m−2s−1 respectively). Plant growth was measured at the low light regime and showed a negative response to warming. Light was a critical factor for photosynthetic performance, although we found no evidence of compensation of photosynthetic quantum efficiency in high light. Relative Electron Rate Transport (rETRmax) was higher in plants incubated in high light, but not affected by pCO2 or temperature. The saturation irradiance (Ik) was negatively affected by temperature. We conclude that elevated CO2 does not enhance photosynthetic activity and growth, in the short term for P. oceanica, while temperature has a direct negative effect on growth. Low light availability also negatively affected photosynthetic performance during the short experimental period examined here. Therefore increasing concentrations of CO2 may not compensate for predicted future conditions of warmer water and higher turbidity for seagrass meadows.

  16. Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

    2017-05-01

    In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

  17. Skin temperature increase mediated by wearable, long duration, low-intensity therapeutic ultrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Matthew D.; Huang, Wenyi; Ghanem, Angi; Guo, Yuan; Lewis, George K.

    2017-03-01

    One of the safety concerns with the delivery of therapeutic ultrasound is overheating of the transducer-skin interface due to poor or improper coupling. The objective of this research was to define a model that could be used to calculate the heating in the skin as a result of a novel, wearable long-duration ultrasound device. This model was used to determine that the maximum heating in the skin remained below the minimum threshold necessary to cause thermal injury over multiple hours of use. In addition to this model data, a human clinical study used wire thermocouples on the skin surface to measure heating characteristics during treatment with the sustained ultrasound system. Parametric analysis of the model determined that the maximum temperature increase is at the surface of the skin ranged from 40-41.8° C when perfusion was taken into account. The clinical data agreed well with the model predictions. The average steady state temperature observed across all 44 subjects was 40°C. The maximum temperature observed was less than 44° C, which is clinically safe for over 5 hours of human skin contact. The resultant clinical temperature data paired well with the model data suggesting the model can be used for future transducer and ultrasound system design simulation. As a result, the device was validated for thermal safety for typical users and use conditions.

  18. Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Challinor, Andrew J; Hawkins, Ed; Asseng, Senthold

    2013-01-01

    As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions. (letter)

  19. Temperature and sowing date affect the linear increase of sunflower harvest index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bange, M.P.; Hammer, G.L.; Rickert, K.G.

    1998-01-01

    The linearity of daily linear harvest index (HI) increase can provide a simple means to predict grain growth and yield in field crops. However, the stability of the rate of increase across genotypes and environments is uncertain. Data from three field experiments were collated to investigate the phase of linear HI increase of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) across environments by changing genotypes, sowing time, N level, and solar irradiation level. Linear increase in HI was similar among different genotypes, N levels, and radiation treatments (mean 0.0125 d-1), but significant differences occurred between sowings. The linear increase in HI was not stable at very low temperatures (down to 9 degrees C) during grain filling, due to possible limitations to biomass accumulation and translocation (mean 0.0091 d-1). Using the linear increase in HI to predict grain yield requires predictions of the duration from an thesis to the onset of linear HI increase (lag phase) and the cessation of linear HI increase. These studies showed that the lag phase differed, and the linear HI increase ceased when 91% of the anthesis to physiological maturity period had been completed

  20. The Central Asian Journal of Global Health to Increase Scientific Productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Freese

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The WHO Collaborating Center at the University of Pittsburgh, USA partnering with Nazarbayev University, developed the Central Asian Journal of Global Health (CAJGH, cajgh.pitt.edu in order to increase scientific productivity in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Scientists in this region often have difficulty publishing in upper tier English language scientific journals due to language barriers, high publication fees, and a lack of access to mentoring services. CAJGH seeks to help scientists overcome these challenges by providing peer-reviewed publication free of change with English and research mentoring services available to selected authors. CAJGH began as a way to expand the Supercourse scientific network (www.pitt.edu/~super1 in the Central Asian region in order to rapidly disseminate educational materials. The network began with approximately 60 individuals in five Central Asian countries and has grown to over 1,300 in a few short years. The CAJGH website receives nearly 900 visits per month. The University of Pittsburgh's “open access publishing system” was utilized to create CAJGH in 2012. There are two branches of the CAJGH editorial board: Astana (at the Center for Life Sciences, Nazarbayev University and Pittsburgh (WHO Collaborating Center. Both are comprised of leading scientists and expert staff who work together throughout the review and publication process. Two complete issues have been published since 2012 and a third is now underway. Even though CAJGH is a new journal, the editorial board uses a rigorous review process; fewer than 50% of all submitted articles are forwarded to peer review or accepted for publication. Furthermore, in 2014, CAJGH will apply to be cross referenced in PubMed and Scopes. CAJGH is one of the first English language journals in the Central Asian region that reaches a large number of scientists. This journal fills a unique niche that will assist scientists in Kazakhstan and Central Asia publish their

  1. The Central Asian Journal of Global Health to Increase Scientific Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freese, Kyle; Shubnikov, Eugene; LaPorte, Ron; Adambekov, Shalkar; Askarova, Sholpan; Zhumadilov, Zhaxybay; Linkov, Faina

    2013-01-01

    The WHO Collaborating Center at the University of Pittsburgh, USA partnering with Nazarbayev University, developed the Central Asian Journal of Global Health (CAJGH, cajgh.pitt.edu) in order to increase scientific productivity in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Scientists in this region often have difficulty publishing in upper tier English language scientific journals due to language barriers, high publication fees, and a lack of access to mentoring services. CAJGH seeks to help scientists overcome these challenges by providing peer-reviewed publication free of change with English and research mentoring services available to selected authors. CAJGH began as a way to expand the Supercourse scientific network (www.pitt.edu/~super1) in the Central Asian region in order to rapidly disseminate educational materials. The network began with approximately 60 individuals in five Central Asian countries and has grown to over 1,300 in a few short years. The CAJGH website receives nearly 900 visits per month. The University of Pittsburgh's "open access publishing system" was utilized to create CAJGH in 2012. There are two branches of the CAJGH editorial board: Astana (at the Center for Life Sciences, Nazarbayev University) and Pittsburgh (WHO Collaborating Center). Both are comprised of leading scientists and expert staff who work together throughout the review and publication process. Two complete issues have been published since 2012 and a third is now underway. Even though CAJGH is a new journal, the editorial board uses a rigorous review process; fewer than 50% of all submitted articles are forwarded to peer review or accepted for publication. Furthermore, in 2014, CAJGH will apply to be cross referenced in PubMed and Scopes. CAJGH is one of the first English language journals in the Central Asian region that reaches a large number of scientists. This journal fills a unique niche that will assist scientists in Kazakhstan and Central Asia publish their research findings and

  2. Modeling of river bed deformation composed of frozen sediments with increasing environmental temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Debolskaya

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to investigation of the influence of river flow and of the temperature rise on the deformation of the coastal slopes composed of permafrost with the inclusion of ice layer. The method of investigation is the laboratory and mathematical modeling. The laboratory experiments have shown that an increase in water and air temperature changes in a laboratory analogue of permafrost causes deformation of the channel even without wave action, i.e. at steady-state flow and non-erosive water flow velocity. The previously developed model of the bed deformation was improved to account for long-term changes of soil structure with increasing temperature. The three-dimensional mathematical model of coastal slopes thermoerosion of the rivers flowing in permafrost regions, and its verification was based on the results of laboratory experiments conducted in the hydraulic tray. Analysis of the results of mathematical and laboratory modeling showed that bed deformation of the rivers flowing in the permafrost zone, significantly different from the deformation of channels composed of soils not susceptible to the influence of the phase transition «water-ice», and can occur even under the non-erosive velocity of the water flow.

  3. Low temperature sensing in tulip (Tulipa gesneriana L.) is mediated through an increased response to auxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietveld, P L; Wilkinson, C; Franssen, H M; Balk, P A; van der Plas, L H; Weisbeek, P J; Douwe de Boer, A

    2000-03-01

    Tulip (Tulipa gesneriana L.) is a bulbous plant species that requires a period of low temperature for proper growth and flowering. The mechanism of sensing the low temperature period is unknown. The study presented in this paper shows that the essential developmental change in tulip bulbs during cold treatment is an increase in sensitivity to the phytohormone auxin. This is demonstrated using a model system consisting of isolated internodes grown on tissue culture medium containing different combinations of the phytohormones auxin and gibberellin. Using mathematical modelling, equations taken from the field of enzyme kinetics were fitted through the data. By doing so it became apparent that longer periods of low temperature resulted in an increased maximum response at a lower auxin concentration. Besides the cold treatment, gibberellin also enhances the response to auxin in the internodes in this in vitro system. A working model describing the relationship between the cold requirement, gibberellin action and auxin sensitivity is put forward. Possible analogies with other cold-requiring processes such as vernalization and stratification, and the interaction of auxin and gibberellin in the stalk elongation process in other plant species are discussed.

  4. Supplementary Material for: Compressing an Ensemble With Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific datasets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a nontrivial model to a dataset of 1 billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 1018 entries. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  5. Elevated temperature increases carbon and nitrogen fluxes between phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria through physical attachment

    KAUST Repository

    Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor

    2016-12-06

    Quantifying the contribution of marine microorganisms to carbon and nitrogen cycles and their response to predicted ocean warming is one of the main challenges of microbial oceanography. Here we present a single-cell NanoSIMS isotope analysis to quantify C and N uptake by free-living and attached phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria, and their response to short-term experimental warming of 4 °C. Elevated temperature increased total C fixation by over 50%, a small but significant fraction of which was transferred to heterotrophs within 12 h. Cell-to-cell attachment doubled the secondary C uptake by heterotrophic bacteria and increased secondary N incorporation by autotrophs by 68%. Warming also increased the abundance of phytoplankton with attached heterotrophs by 80%, and promoted C transfer from phytoplankton to bacteria by 17% and N transfer from bacteria to phytoplankton by 50%. Our results indicate that phytoplankton-bacteria attachment provides an ecological advantage for nutrient incorporation, suggesting a mutualistic relationship that appears to be enhanced by temperature increases.

  6. Elevated temperature increases carbon and nitrogen fluxes between phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria through physical attachment

    KAUST Repository

    Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Weber, Peter K; Alonso-Sá ez, Laura; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Mayali, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying the contribution of marine microorganisms to carbon and nitrogen cycles and their response to predicted ocean warming is one of the main challenges of microbial oceanography. Here we present a single-cell NanoSIMS isotope analysis to quantify C and N uptake by free-living and attached phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria, and their response to short-term experimental warming of 4 °C. Elevated temperature increased total C fixation by over 50%, a small but significant fraction of which was transferred to heterotrophs within 12 h. Cell-to-cell attachment doubled the secondary C uptake by heterotrophic bacteria and increased secondary N incorporation by autotrophs by 68%. Warming also increased the abundance of phytoplankton with attached heterotrophs by 80%, and promoted C transfer from phytoplankton to bacteria by 17% and N transfer from bacteria to phytoplankton by 50%. Our results indicate that phytoplankton-bacteria attachment provides an ecological advantage for nutrient incorporation, suggesting a mutualistic relationship that appears to be enhanced by temperature increases.

  7. Utilisation of bleed steam heat to increase the upper heat source temperature in low-temperature ORC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikielewicz, Dariusz; Mikielewicz, Jarosław

    2011-12-01

    In the paper presented is a novel concept to utilize the heat from the turbine bleed to improve the quality of working fluid vapour in the bottoming organic Rankine cycle (ORC). That is a completely novel solution in the literature, which contributes to the increase of ORC efficiency and the overall efficiency of the combined system of the power plant and ORC plant. Calculations have been accomplished for the case when available is a flow rate of low enthalpy hot water at a temperature of 90 °C, which is used for preliminary heating of the working fluid. That hot water is obtained as a result of conversion of exhaust gases in the power plant to the energy of hot water. Then the working fluid is further heated by the bleed steam to reach 120 °C. Such vapour is subsequently directed to the turbine. In the paper 5 possible working fluids were examined, namely R134a, MM, MDM, toluene and ethanol. Only under conditions of 120 °C/40 °C the silicone oil MM showed the best performance, in all other cases the ethanol proved to be best performing fluid of all. Results are compared with the "stand alone" ORC module showing its superiority.

  8. The influence of increased temperature of waters from Cernavoda NPP on underground water sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isbasoiu, Eugen Constantin; Marinov, Anca Mariana; Moraru, Carina Nicoleta; Rizescu, Gheorghe

    1997-01-01

    The operation of Cernavoda NPP implies the change of thermal regime of waters in the Danube-Black Sea channel zone. The Danube water is used to cool the NPP systems before being delivered into channel and used in irrigations. The temperature increase of water in Cernavoda NPP installations is between 7 and 12 deg. C. The negative effects of this warming are: 1. limitation of water use for irrigations; 2. occurrence and persistence of fog in channel area; 3. thermal pollution of underground waters and limitation of underground potable water supply. The paper presents a general approach of thermal pollution problems of an aquifer and a mathematical model of forecasting the underground water temperature variation in Danube-Black Sea channel area. (authors)

  9. Toward Spectroscopically Detecting the Global Latitudinal Temperature Variation on the Solar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Y.; UeNo, S.

    2017-09-01

    A very slight rotation-induced latitudinal temperature variation (presumably on the order of several kelvin) on the solar surface is theoretically expected. While recent high-precision solar brightness observations reported its detection, confirmation by an alternative approach using the strengths of spectral lines is desirable, for which reducing the noise due to random fluctuation caused by atmospheric inhomogeneity is critical. Toward this difficult task, we carried out a pilot study of spectroscopically investigating the relative variation of temperature (T) at a number of points in the solar circumference region near to the limb (where latitude dependence should be detectable, if any exists) based on the equivalent widths (W) of 28 selected lines in the 5367 - 5393 Å and 6075 - 6100 Å regions. We paid special attention to i) clarifying which types of lines should be employed and ii) how much precision is attainable in practice. We found that lines with strong T-sensitivity (|log W/log T|) should be used and that very weak lines should be avoided because they inevitably suffer strong relative fluctuations (Δ W/W). Our analysis revealed that a precision of Δ T/T ≈ 0.003 (corresponding to ≈ 15 K) can be achieved at best by a spectral line with comparatively large |log W/log T|, although this can possibly be further improved When a number of lines are used all together. Accordingly, if many such favorable lines could be measured with subpercent precision of Δ W/W and by averaging the resulting Δ T/T from each line, the random noise would eventually be reduced to ≲ 1 K and detection of a very subtle amount of global T-gradient might be possible.

  10. Lower Growth Temperature Increases Alternative Pathway Capacity and Alternative Oxidase Protein in Tobacco 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanlerberghe, Greg C.; McIntosh, Lee

    1992-01-01

    Suspension cells of NT1 tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L. cv bright yellow) have been used to study the effect of growth temperature on the CN-resistant, salicylhydroxamic acid-sensitive alternative pathway of respiration. Mitochondria isolated from cells maintained at 30°C had a low capacity to oxidize succinate via the alternative pathway, whereas mitochondria isolated from cells 24 h after transfer to 18°C displayed, on average, a 5-fold increase in this capacity (from 7 to 32 nanoatoms oxygen per milligram protein per minute). This represented an increase in alternative pathway capacity from 18 to 45% of the total capacity of electron transport. This increased capacity was lost upon transfer of cells back to 30°C. A monoclonal antibody to the terminal oxidase of the alternative pathway (the alternative oxidase) from Sauromatum guttatum (T.E. Elthon, R.L. Nickels, L. McIntosh [1989] Plant Physiology 89: 1311-1317) recognized a 35-kilodalton mitochondrial protein in tobacco. There was an excellent correlation between the capacity of the alternative path in isolated tobacco mitochondria and the levels of this 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein. Cycloheximide could inhibit both the increased level of the 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein and the increased alternative pathway capacity normally seen upon transfer to 18°C. We conclude that transfer of tobacco cells to the lower temperature increases the capacity of the alternative pathway due, at least in part, to de novo synthesis of the 35-kilodalton alternative oxidase protein. Images Figure 3 Figure 4 PMID:16652932

  11. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  12. Increasing minority carrier lifetime in as-grown multicrystalline silicon by low temperature internal gettering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Amin, M., E-mail: m.al-amin@warwick.ac.uk; Murphy, J. D., E-mail: john.d.murphy@warwick.ac.uk [School of Engineering, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2016-06-21

    We report a systematic study into the effects of long low temperature (≤500 °C) annealing on the lifetime and interstitial iron distributions in as-grown multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) from different ingot height positions. Samples are characterised in terms of dislocation density, and lifetime and interstitial iron concentration measurements are made at every stage using a temporary room temperature iodine-ethanol surface passivation scheme. Our measurement procedure allows these properties to be monitored during processing in a pseudo in situ way. Sufficient annealing at 300 °C and 400 °C increases lifetime in all cases studied, and annealing at 500 °C was only found to improve relatively poor wafers from the top and bottom of the block. We demonstrate that lifetime in poor as-grown wafers can be improved substantially by a low cost process in the absence of any bulk passivation which might result from a dielectric surface film. Substantial improvements are found in bottom wafers, for which annealing at 400 °C for 35 h increases lifetime from 5.5 μs to 38.7 μs. The lifetime of top wafers is improved from 12.1 μs to 23.8 μs under the same conditions. A correlation between interstitial iron concentration reduction and lifetime improvement is found in these cases. Surprisingly, although the interstitial iron concentration exceeds the expected solubility values, low temperature annealing seems to result in an initial increase in interstitial iron concentration, and any subsequent decay is a complex process driven not only by diffusion of interstitial iron.

  13. Elevated CO2 and temperature increase soil C losses from a soybean-maize ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Christopher K; Davis, Sarah C; Hudiburg, Tara W; Bernacchi, Carl J; DeLucia, Evan H

    2017-01-01

    Warming temperatures and increasing CO 2 are likely to have large effects on the amount of carbon stored in soil, but predictions of these effects are poorly constrained. We elevated temperature (canopy: +2.8 °C; soil growing season: +1.8 °C; soil fallow: +2.3 °C) for 3 years within the 9th-11th years of an elevated CO 2 (+200 ppm) experiment on a maize-soybean agroecosystem, measured respiration by roots and soil microbes, and then used a process-based ecosystem model (DayCent) to simulate the decadal effects of warming and CO 2 enrichment on soil C. Both heating and elevated CO 2 increased respiration from soil microbes by ~20%, but heating reduced respiration from roots and rhizosphere by ~25%. The effects were additive, with no heat × CO 2 interactions. Particulate organic matter and total soil C declined over time in all treatments and were lower in elevated CO 2 plots than in ambient plots, but did not differ between heat treatments. We speculate that these declines indicate a priming effect, with increased C inputs under elevated CO 2 fueling a loss of old soil carbon. Model simulations of heated plots agreed with our observations and predicted loss of ~15% of soil organic C after 100 years of heating, but simulations of elevated CO 2 failed to predict the observed C losses and instead predicted a ~4% gain in soil organic C under any heating conditions. Despite model uncertainty, our empirical results suggest that combined, elevated CO 2 and temperature will lead to long-term declines in the amount of carbon stored in agricultural soils. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Ocean acidification and temperature increase impact mussel shell shape and thickness: problematic for protection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzer, Susan C; Vittert, Liberty; Bowman, Adrian; Kamenos, Nicholas A; Phoenix, Vernon R; Cusack, Maggie

    2015-11-01

    Ocean acidification threatens organisms that produce calcium carbonate shells by potentially generating an under-saturated carbonate environment. Resultant reduced calcification and growth, and subsequent dissolution of exoskeletons, would raise concerns over the ability of the shell to provide protection for the marine organism under ocean acidification and increased temperatures. We examined the impact of combined ocean acidification and temperature increase on shell formation of the economically important edible mussel Mytilus edulis. Shell growth and thickness along with a shell thickness index and shape analysis were determined. The ability of M. edulis to produce a functional protective shell after 9 months of experimental culture under ocean acidification and increasing temperatures (380, 550, 750, 1000 μatm pCO 2, and 750, 1000 μatm pCO 2 + 2°C) was assessed. Mussel shells grown under ocean acidification conditions displayed significant reductions in shell aragonite thickness, shell thickness index, and changes to shell shape (750, 1000 μatm pCO 2) compared to those shells grown under ambient conditions (380 μatm pCO 2). Ocean acidification resulted in rounder, flatter mussel shells with thinner aragonite layers likely to be more vulnerable to fracture under changing environments and predation. The changes in shape presented here could present a compensatory mechanism to enhance protection against predators and changing environments under ocean acidification when mussels are unable to grow thicker shells. Here, we present the first assessment of mussel shell shape to determine implications for functional protection under ocean acidification.

  15. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  16. Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid

  17. Increased Water Retention in Polymer Electrolyte Membranes at Elevated Temperatures Assisted by Capillary Condensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, M.J.; Downing, K.H.; Jackson, A.; Gomez, E.D.; Minor, A.M.; Cookson, D.; Weber, A.Z.; Balsara, N.P.

    2007-01-01

    We establish a new systematic methodology for controlling the water retention of polymer electrolyte membranes. Block copolymer membranes comprising hydrophilic phases with widths ranging from 2 to 5 nm become wetter as the temperature of the surrounding air is increased at constant relative humidity. The widths of the moist hydrophilic phases were measured by cryogenic electron microscopy experiments performed on humid membranes. Simple calculations suggest that capillary condensation is important at these length scales. The correlation between moisture content and proton conductivity of the membranes is demonstrated.

  18. Increased water retention in polymer electrolyte membranes at elevated temperatures assisted by capillary condensation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Moon Jeong; Downing, Kenneth H; Jackson, Andrew; Gomez, Enrique D; Minor, Andrew M; Cookson, David; Weber, Adam Z; Balsara, Nitash P

    2007-11-01

    We establish a new systematic methodology for controlling the water retention of polymer electrolyte membranes. Block copolymer membranes comprising hydrophilic phases with widths ranging from 2 to 5 nm become wetter as the temperature of the surrounding air is increased at constant relative humidity. The widths of the moist hydrophilic phases were measured by cryogenic electron microscopy experiments performed on humid membranes. Simple calculations suggest that capillary condensation is important at these length scales. The correlation between moisture content and proton conductivity of the membranes is demonstrated.

  19. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.