WorldWideScience

Sample records for global sun-heliosphere simulations

  1. An Efficient Approximation of the Coronal Heating Rate for use in Global Sun-Heliosphere Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranmer, Steven R.

    2010-02-01

    The origins of the hot solar corona and the supersonically expanding solar wind are still the subject of debate. A key obstacle in the way of producing realistic simulations of the Sun-heliosphere system is the lack of a physically motivated way of specifying the coronal heating rate. Recent one-dimensional models have been found to reproduce many observed features of the solar wind by assuming the energy comes from Alfvén waves that are partially reflected, then dissipated by magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. However, the nonlocal physics of wave reflection has made it difficult to apply these processes to more sophisticated (three-dimensional) models. This paper presents a set of robust approximations to the solutions of the linear Alfvén wave reflection equations. A key ingredient of the turbulent heating rate is the ratio of inward-to-outward wave power, and the approximations developed here allow this to be written explicitly in terms of local plasma properties at any given location. The coronal heating also depends on the frequency spectrum of Alfvén waves in the open-field corona, which has not yet been measured directly. A model-based assumption is used here for the spectrum, but the results of future measurements can be incorporated easily. The resulting expression for the coronal heating rate is self-contained, computationally efficient, and applicable directly to global models of the corona and heliosphere. This paper tests and validates the approximations by comparing the results to exact solutions of the wave transport equations in several cases relevant to the fast and slow solar wind.

  2. Global Simulation of Aviation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Sheth, Kapil; Ng, Hok Kwan; Morando, Alex; Li, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    The simulation and analysis of global air traffic is limited due to a lack of simulation tools and the difficulty in accessing data sources. This paper provides a global simulation of aviation operations combining flight plans and real air traffic data with historical commercial city-pair aircraft type and schedule data and global atmospheric data. The resulting capability extends the simulation and optimization functions of NASA's Future Air Traffic Management Concept Evaluation Tool (FACET) to global scale. This new capability is used to present results on the evolution of global air traffic patterns from a concentration of traffic inside US, Europe and across the Atlantic Ocean to a more diverse traffic pattern across the globe with accelerated growth in Asia, Australia, Africa and South America. The simulation analyzes seasonal variation in the long-haul wind-optimal traffic patterns in six major regions of the world and provides potential time-savings of wind-optimal routes compared with either great circle routes or current flight-plans if available.

  3. Global optimization and simulated annealing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekkers, A.; Aarts, E.H.L.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper we are concerned with global optimization, which can be defined as the problem of finding points on a bounded subset of Rn in which some real valued functionf assumes its optimal (i.e. maximal or minimal) value. We present a stochastic approach which is based on the simulated annealing

  4. Global gyrokinetic simulation of tokamak transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furnish, G.; Horton, W.; Kishimoto, Y.; LeBrun, M.J.; Tajima, T.

    1998-10-01

    A kinetic simulation code based on the gyrokinetic ion dynamics in global general metric (including a tokamak with circular or noncircular cross-section) has been developed. This gyrokinetic simulation is capable of examining the global and semi-global driftwave structures and their associated transport in a tokamak plasma. The authors investigate the property of the ion temperature gradient (ITG) or η i (η i ≡ ∂ ell nT i /∂ ell n n i ) driven drift waves in a tokamak plasma. The emergent semi-global drift wave modes give rise to thermal transport characterized by the Bohm scaling

  5. Toward 10-km mesh global climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, W.; Enomoto, T.; Takaya, K.; Yoshioka, M. K.

    2002-12-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that runs very efficiently on the Earth Simulator (ES) was developed. The ES is a gigantic vector-parallel computer with the peak performance of 40 Tflops. The AGCM, named AFES (AGCM for ES), was based on the version 5.4.02 of an AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sciences. The AFES was, however, totally rewritten in FORTRAN90 and MPI while the original AGCM was written in FORTRAN77 and not capable of parallel computing. The AFES achieved 26 Tflops (about 65 % of the peak performance of the ES) at resolution of T1279L96 (10-km horizontal resolution and 500-m vertical resolution in middle troposphere to lower stratosphere). Some results of 10- to 20-day global simulations will be presented. At this moment, only short-term simulations are possible due to data storage limitation. As ten tera flops computing is achieved, peta byte data storage are necessary to conduct climate-type simulations at this super-high resolution global simulations. Some possibilities for future research topics in global super-high resolution climate simulations will be discussed. Some target topics are mesoscale structures and self-organization of the Baiu-Meiyu front over Japan, cyclogenecsis over the North Pacific and typhoons around the Japan area. Also improvement in local precipitation with increasing horizontal resolution will be demonstrated.

  6. 'Disaster day': global health simulation teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed-Ahmed, Rayan; Daniels, Alex; Goodall, Jack; O'Kelly, Emily; Fisher, James

    2016-02-01

    As society diversifies and globalisation quickens, the importance of teaching global health to medical undergraduates increases. For undergraduates, the majority of exposure to 'hands-on' teaching on global health occurs during optional elective periods. This article describes an innovative student-led initiative, 'Disaster Day', which used simulation to teach global health to undergraduates. The teaching day began with an introduction outlining the work of Médecins Sans Frontières and the basic principles of resuscitation. Students then undertook four interactive simulation scenarios: Infectious Diseases in a Refugee Camp, Natural Disaster and Crush Injury, Obstetric Emergency in a Low-Income Country, and Warzone Gunshot Wound. Sessions were facilitated by experienced doctors and fourth-year students who had been trained in the delivery of the scenarios. Students completed pre- and post-session evaluation forms that included the self-rating of confidence in eight learning domains (using a five-point Likert scale). Twenty-seven students voluntarily attended the session, and all provided written feedback. Analysis of the pre- and post-session evaluations demonstrated statistically significant improvements in confidence across all but one domains (Wilcoxon signed rank test). Free-text feedback was overwhelmingly positive, with students appreciating the practical aspect of the scenarios. For undergraduates, the majority of exposure to 'hands-on' teaching on global health occurs during optional elective periods Simulation-based teaching can provide students with 'hands-on' exposure to global health in a controlled, reproducible fashion and appears to help develop their confidence in a variety of learning domains. The more widespread use of such teaching methods is encouraged: helping tomorrow's doctors develop insight into global health challenges may produce more rounded clinicians capable of caring for more culturally diverse populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons

  7. Global solutions through simulation for better decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scoto Di Suoccio, Ines; Testard, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    Decommissioning is a new activity in sense that it only exists a limited experience. Moreover, each facility is different due to their own history and there is no rule about choosing a decommissioning strategy. There are three major decommissioning strategies. First, 'immediate dismantling', which means the action of decommissioning begins immediately after the transfer of waste and nuclear material. Second, 'deferred dismantling strategy', which means that the facility is maintained into a containment zone from thirty to one hundred years before being decommissioned. Finally, 'entombment', means the facility is placed into a reinforced containment until the radionuclides decay and reach a level allowing the site release. When a strategy is decided many factors have to be taken into account. Into a major project such as a reactor decommissioning, there are many smaller projects. The decommissioning strategy can be different among these smaller projects. For some reasons, some entry data are not perfectly known. For example, dosimetric activity has not been updated through time or after specific events. Indeed, because of uncertainties and/or hypothesis existing around projects and their high level of interdependency, global solutions are a good way to choose the best decommissioning strategy. Actually, each entry data has consequences on output results whether it is on costs, cumulated dose, waste or delays. These output data are interdependent and cannot be taken apart from each other. Whether the dose, delays or waste management, all have impact on costs. To obtain an optimal scenario into a special environment, it is necessary to deal with all these items together. This global solution can be implemented thanks to simulation in dedicated software which helps to define the global strategy, to optimize the scenario, and to prevent contingencies. As a complete scenario simulation can be done quickly and efficiently, many strategies can

  8. Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hoose

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available An explicit and detailed representation of in-droplet and in-crystal aerosol particles in stratiform clouds has been introduced in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The new scheme allows an evaluation of the cloud cycling of aerosols and an estimation of the relative contributions of nucleation and collision scavenging, as opposed to evaporation of hydrometeors in the global aerosol processing by clouds. On average an aerosol particle is cycled through stratiform clouds 0.5 times. The new scheme leads to important changes in the simulated fraction of aerosol scavenged in clouds, and consequently in the aerosol wet deposition. In general, less aerosol is scavenged into clouds with the new prognostic treatment than what is prescribed in standard ECHAM5-HAM. Aerosol concentrations, size distributions, scavenged fractions and cloud droplet concentrations are evaluated and compared to different observations. While the scavenged fraction and the aerosol number concentrations in the marine boundary layer are well represented in the new model, aerosol optical thickness, cloud droplet number concentrations in the marine boundary layer and the aerosol volume in the accumulation and coarse modes over the oceans are overestimated. Sensitivity studies suggest that a better representation of below-cloud scavenging, higher in-cloud collision coefficients, or a reduced water uptake by seasalt aerosols could reduce these biases.

  9. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  10. Global gyrokinetic simulations of TEM microturbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernay, T.; Brunner, S.; Villard, L.; McMillan, B. F.; Jolliet, S.; Bottino, A.; Görler, T.; Jenko, F.

    2013-07-01

    Global gyrokinetic simulations of electrostatic temperature-gradient-driven trapped-electron-mode (TEM) turbulence using the δf particle-in-cell code ORB5 are presented. The electron response is either fully kinetic or hybrid, i.e. considering kinetic trapped and adiabatic passing electrons. A linear benchmark in the TEM regime against the Eulerian-based code GENE is presented. Two different methods for controlling the numerical noise, based, respectively, on a Krook operator and a so-called coarse-graining approach, are discussed and successfully compared. Both linear and non-linear studies are carried out for addressing the issue of finite-ρ*-effects and finite electron collisionality on TEM turbulence. Electron collisions are found to damp TEMs through the detrapping process, while finite-ρ*-effects turn out to be important in the non-linear regime but very small in the linear regime. Finally, the effects of zonal flows on TEM turbulence are briefly considered as well and shown to be unimportant in the temperature-gradient-driven TEM regime. Consistently, basically no difference is found between linear and non-linear critical electron temperature gradients in the TEM regime.

  11. Effective assimilation of global precipitation: simulation experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Yuan Lien

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Past attempts to assimilate precipitation by nudging or variational methods have succeeded in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed values. However, the model forecasts tend to lose their additional skill after a few forecast hours. In this study, a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF is used to effectively assimilate precipitation by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights in the analysis. In addition, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are found to alleviate the problems related to the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variable: (a transform the precipitation variable into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution (an approach that could also be used in the assimilation of other non-Gaussian observations and (b only assimilate precipitation at the location where at least some ensemble members have precipitation. Unlike many current approaches, both positive and zero rain observations are assimilated effectively. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs are conducted using the Simplified Parametrisations, primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY model, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When uniformly and globally distributed observations of precipitation are assimilated in addition to rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium-range forecasts of all model variables, including precipitation, are significantly improved as compared to only assimilating rawinsonde observations. The effect of precipitation assimilation on the analyses is retained on the medium-range forecasts and is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH than that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH because the NH analyses are already made more accurate by the denser rawinsonde stations. These improvements are much reduced when only the moisture field is modified by the precipitation observations. Both the Gaussian transformation and

  12. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  13. Promoting Simulation Globally: Networking with Nursing Colleagues Across Five Continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfes, Celeste M; Madigan, Elizabeth A

    Simulation education is gaining momentum internationally and may provide the opportunity to enhance clinical education while disseminating evidence-based practice standards for clinical simulation and learning. There is a need to develop a cohesive leadership group that fosters support, networking, and sharing of simulation resources globally. The Frances Payne Bolton School of Nursing at Case Western Reserve University has had the unique opportunity to establish academic exchange programs with schools of nursing across five continents. Although the joint and mutual simulation activities have been extensive, each international collaboration has also provided insight into the innovations developed by global partners.

  14. Global field experiments for potato simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prasad, Rishi

    2018-01-01

    A large field potato experimental dataset has been assembled for simulation modeling. The data are from temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions across the world and include 87 experiments with 204 treatments. Treatments include nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation, atmospheric CO2 levels, tempera......A large field potato experimental dataset has been assembled for simulation modeling. The data are from temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions across the world and include 87 experiments with 204 treatments. Treatments include nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation, atmospheric CO2 levels...

  15. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  16. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  17. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  18. Global field experiments for potato simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raymundo, Rubi; Asseng, Senthold; Prasad, Rishi; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Condori, Bruno; Bowen, Walter; Wolf, Joost; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Dong, Qiaoxue; Zotarelli, Lincoln; Gastelo, Manuel; Alva, Ashok; Travasso, Maria; Arora, Vijay

    2018-01-01

    A large field potato experimental data set has been assembled for simulation modeling. The data are from temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions across the world and include 87 experiments with 204 treatments. Treatments include nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation, atmospheric CO2 levels,

  19. Conditional simulation for efficient global optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, Jack P.C.; Mehdad, E.; Pasupathy, R.; Kim, S.-H.; Tolk, A.; Hill, R.; Kuhl, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    A classic Kriging or Gaussian process (GP) metamodel estimates the variance of its predictor by plugging-in the estimated GP (hyper)parameters; namely, the mean, variance, and covariances. The problem is that this predictor variance is biased. To solve this problem for deterministic simulations, we

  20. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  1. Simulation analysis of globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, S.J.; Hiroshi, K. [Hiroshima Inst. of Tech., Graduate School of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Dept. of In formation and Intelligent Systems Engineering, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    This paper focuses on the optimal analysis of world-wide recycling activities associated with managing the logistics and production activities in global manufacturing whose activities stretch across national boundaries. Globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies consist of the home country and two free trading economic blocs, NAFTA and ASEAN, where significant differences are found in production and disassembly cost, tax rates, local content rules and regulations. Moreover an optimal analysis of globally integrated value-chain was developed by applying simulation optimization technique as a decision-making tool. The simulation model was developed and analyzed by using ProModel packages, and the results help to identify some of the appropriate conditions required to make well-performed logistics and recycling plans in world-wide collaborated manufacturing environment. (orig.)

  2. How to simulate global cosmic strings with large string tension

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaer, Vincent B.; Moore, Guy D., E-mail: vklaer@theorie.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de, E-mail: guy.moore@physik.tu-darmstadt.de [Institut für Kernphysik, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schlossgartenstraße 2, Darmstadt, D-64289 Germany (Germany)

    2017-10-01

    Global string networks may be relevant in axion production in the early Universe, as well as other cosmological scenarios. Such networks contain a large hierarchy of scales between the string core scale and the Hubble scale, ln( f {sub a} / H ) ∼ 70, which influences the network dynamics by giving the strings large tensions T ≅ π f {sub a} {sup 2} ln( f {sub a} / H ). We present a new numerical approach to simulate such global string networks, capturing the tension without an exponentially large lattice.

  3. Global Particle-in-Cell Simulations of Mercury's Magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schriver, D.; Travnicek, P. M.; Lapenta, G.; Amaya, J.; Gonzalez, D.; Richard, R. L.; Berchem, J.; Hellinger, P.

    2017-12-01

    Spacecraft observations of Mercury's magnetosphere have shown that kinetic ion and electron particle effects play a major role in the transport, acceleration, and loss of plasma within the magnetospheric system. Kinetic processes include reconnection, the breakdown of particle adiabaticity and wave-particle interactions. Because of the vast range in spatial scales involved in magnetospheric dynamics, from local electron Debye length scales ( meters) to solar wind/planetary magnetic scale lengths (tens to hundreds of planetary radii), fully self-consistent kinetic simulations of a global planetary magnetosphere remain challenging. Most global simulations of Earth's and other planet's magnetosphere are carried out using MHD, enhanced MHD (e.g., Hall MHD), hybrid, or a combination of MHD and particle in cell (PIC) simulations. Here, 3D kinetic self-consistent hybrid (ion particle, electron fluid) and full PIC (ion and electron particle) simulations of the solar wind interaction with Mercury's magnetosphere are carried out. Using the implicit PIC and hybrid simulations, Mercury's relatively small, but highly kinetic magnetosphere will be examined to determine how the self-consistent inclusion of electrons affects magnetic reconnection, particle transport and acceleration of plasma at Mercury. Also the spatial and energy profiles of precipitating magnetospheric ions and electrons onto Mercury's surface, which can strongly affect the regolith in terms of space weathering and particle outflow, will be examined with the PIC and hybrid codes. MESSENGER spacecraft observations are used both to initiate and validate the global kinetic simulations to achieve a deeper understanding of the role kinetic physics play in magnetospheric dynamics.

  4. Global simulation of interactions between groundwater and terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, M. C.; Rebel, K.; Dekker, S. C.; Smith, B.; Van Beek, L. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; van Kampenhout, L.; Wassen, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    In many places in the world ecosystems are influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux due to capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has strong positive effect on evapotranspiration. Additionally it has important consequences for vegetation dynamics and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Under water limited conditions shallow groundwater stimulates vegetation productivity, and soil organic matter decomposition while under saturated conditions groundwater may have a negative effect on these processes due to lack of oxygen. Furthermore, since plant species differ with respect to their root distribution, preference for moisture conditions, and resistance to oxygen stress, shallow groundwater also influences vegetation type. Finally, processes such as denitrification and methane production occur under strictly anaerobic conditions and are thus strongly influenced by moisture availability. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure and are therefore less suitable to represent effects of groundwater on biogeochemical fluxes. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure and biogeochemical processes. These models are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. Using this coupled model we aim to

  5. Global gyrokinetic simulation of Tokamak edge pedestal instabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Weigang; Parker, Scott E; Chen, Yang; Yan, Zheng; Groebner, Richard J; Snyder, Philip B

    2012-11-02

    Global electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations show the existence of near threshold conditions for both a high-n kinetic ballooning mode (KBM) and an intermediate-n kinetic version of peeling-ballooning mode (KPBM) in the edge pedestal of two DIII-D H-mode discharges. When the magnetic shear is reduced in a narrow region of steep pressure gradient, the KPBM is significantly stabilized, while the KBM is weakly destabilized and hence becomes the most-unstable mode. Collisions decrease the KBM's critical β and increase the growth rate.

  6. Global Vlasov simulation on magnetospheres of astronomical objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeda, Takayuki; Ito, Yosuke; Fukazawa, Keiichiro

    2013-01-01

    Space plasma is a collisionless, multi-scale, and highly nonlinear medium. There are various types of self-consistent computer simulations that treat space plasma according to various approximations. We develop numerical schemes for solving the Vlasov (collisionless Boltzmann) equation, which is the first-principle kinetic equation for collisionless plasma. The weak-scaling benchmark test shows that our parallel Vlasov code achieves a high performance and a high scalability. Currently, we use more than 1000 cores for parallel computations and apply the present parallel Vlasov code to various cross-scale processes in space plasma, such as a global simulation on the interaction between solar/stellar wind and magnetospheres of astronomical objects

  7. Gyrokinetic Simulation of Global Turbulent Transport Properties in Tokamak Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, W.X.; Lin, Z.; Tang, W.M.; Lee, W.W.; Ethier, S.; Lewandowski, J.L.V.; Rewoldt, G.; Hahm, T.S.; Manickam, J.

    2006-01-01

    A general geometry gyro-kinetic model for particle simulation of plasma turbulence in tokamak experiments is described. It incorporates the comprehensive influence of noncircular cross section, realistic plasma profiles, plasma rotation, neoclassical (equilibrium) electric fields, and Coulomb collisions. An interesting result of global turbulence development in a shaped tokamak plasma is presented with regard to nonlinear turbulence spreading into the linearly stable region. The mutual interaction between turbulence and zonal flows in collisionless plasmas is studied with a focus on identifying possible nonlinear saturation mechanisms for zonal flows. A bursting temporal behavior with a period longer than the geodesic acoustic oscillation period is observed even in a collisionless system. Our simulation results suggest that the zonal flows can drive turbulence. However, this process is too weak to be an effective zonal flow saturation mechanism.

  8. Global simulation of edge pedestal micro-instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Weigang; Parker, Scott; Chen, Yang

    2011-10-01

    We study micro turbulence of the tokamak edge pedestal with global gyrokinetic particle simulations. The simulation code GEM is an electromagnetic δf code. Two sets of DIII-D experimental profiles, shot #131997 and shot #136051 are used. The dominant instabilities appear to be two kinds of modes both propagating in the electron diamagnetic direction, with comparable linear growth rates. The low n mode is at the Alfven frequency range and driven by density and ion temperature gradients. The high n mode is driven by electron temperature gradient and has a low real frequency. A β scan shows that the low n mode is electromagnetic. Frequency analysis shows that the high n mode is sometimes mixed with an ion instability. Experimental radial electric field is applied and its effects studied. We will also show some preliminary nonlinear results. We thank R. Groebner, P. Snyder and Y. Zheng for providing experimental profiles and helpful discussions.

  9. Global Dynamic Numerical Simulations of Plate Tectonic Reorganizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morra, G.; Quevedo, L.; Butterworth, N.; Matthews, K. J.; Müller, D.

    2010-12-01

    We use a new numerical approach for global geodynamics to investigate the origin of present global plate motion and to identify the causes of the last two global tectonic reorganizations occurred about 50 and 100 million years ago (Ma) [1]. While the 50 Ma event is the most well-known global plate-mantle event, expressed by the bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain, a prominent plate reorganization at about 100 Ma, although presently little studied, is clearly indicated by a major bend in the fracture zones in the Indian Ocean and by a change in Pacific plate motion [2]. Our workflow involves turning plate reconstructions into surface meshes that are subsequently employed as initial conditions for global Boundary Element numerical models. The tectonic setting that anticipates the reorganizations is processed with the software GPlates, combining the 3D mesh of the paleo-plate morphology and the reconstruction of paleo-subducted slabs, elaborated from tectonic history [3]. All our models involve the entire planetary system, are fully dynamic, have free surface, are characterized by a spectacular computational speed due to the simultaneous use of the multi-pole algorithm and the Boundary Element formulation and are limited only by the use of sharp material property variations [4]. We employ this new tool to unravel the causes of plate tectonic reorganizations, producing and comparing global plate motion with the reconstructed ones. References: [1] Torsvik, T., Müller, R.D., Van der Voo, R., Steinberger, B., and Gaina, C., 2008, Global Plate Motion Frames: Toward a unified model: Reviews in Geophysics, VOL. 46, RG3004, 44 PP., 2008 [2] Wessel, P. and Kroenke, L.W. Pacific absolute plate motion since 145 Ma: An assessment of the fixed hot spot hypothesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 113, B06101, 2008 [3] L. Quevedo, G. Morra, R. D. Mueller. Parallel Fast Multipole Boundary Element Method for Crustal Dynamics, Proceeding 9th World Congress and 4th Asian

  10. Real-time Global Illumination by Simulating Photon Mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Bent Dalgaard

    2004-01-01

    This thesis introduces a new method for simulating photon mapping in realtime. The method uses a variety of both CPU and GPU based algorithms for speeding up the different elements in global illumination. The idea behind the method is to calculate each illumination element individually in a progr......This thesis introduces a new method for simulating photon mapping in realtime. The method uses a variety of both CPU and GPU based algorithms for speeding up the different elements in global illumination. The idea behind the method is to calculate each illumination element individually...... in a progressive and efficient manner. This has been done by analyzing the photon mapping method and by selecting efficient methods, either CPU based or GPU based, which replaces the original photon mapping algorithms. We have chosen to focus on the indirect illumination and the caustics. In our method we first...... divide the photon map into several photon maps in order to make local updates possible. Then indirect illumination is added using light maps that are selectively updated by using selective photon tracing on the CPU. The final gathering step is calculated by using fragment programs and GPU based...

  11. Physical Processes for Driving Ionospheric Outflows in Global Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Thomas Earle; Strangeway, Robert J.

    2009-01-01

    We review and assess the importance of processes thought to drive ionospheric outflows, linking them as appropriate to the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, and to the spatial and temporal distribution of their magnetospheric internal responses. These begin with the diffuse effects of photoionization and thermal equilibrium of the ionospheric topside, enhancing Jeans' escape, with ambipolar diffusion and acceleration. Auroral outflows begin with dayside reconnexion and resultant field-aligned currents and driven convection. These produce plasmaspheric plumes, collisional heating and wave-particle interactions, centrifugal acceleration, and auroral acceleration by parallel electric fields, including enhanced ambipolar fields from electron heating by precipitating particles. Observations and simulations show that solar wind energy dissipation into the atmosphere is concentrated by the geomagnetic field into auroral regions with an amplification factor of 10-100, enhancing heavy species plasma and gas escape from gravity, and providing more current carrying capacity. Internal plasmas thus enable electromagnetic driving via coupling to the plasma, neutral gas and by extension, the entire body " We assess the Importance of each of these processes in terms of local escape flux production as well as global outflow, and suggest methods for their implementation within multispecies global simulation codes. We complete 'he survey with an assessment of outstanding obstacles to this objective.

  12. Global characteristics of geomagnetic excursions as seen in global empirical models and a numerical geodynamo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korte, M. C.; Wardinski, I.; Brown, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Paleomagnetic results from sediments and lava flows provide observational evidence of numerous geomagnetic excursions throughout Earth's history. Two new spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models covering 50-30 ka, including the Laschamp ( 41ka) and Mono Lake ( 32-35 ka) excursions allow us to characterize the global behaviour of these events, both at Earth's surface and the core-mantle boundary. We investigate the evolution of dipole and large-scale non-dipole power throughout the duration of the model and the morphology of the large-scale radial field at the core-mantle boundary. The models suggest clear differences in both the decrease in axial dipole strength and dipole tilt between the two excursions and unlike the previously published model by Leonhardt et al. (2009), they suggest some increase of non-dipole power during the early and late stages of the Laschamp excursion. Global characteristics from the models can be directly compared with results from numerical simulations. We do so for several excursions generated by a numerical simulation driven by purely compositional convection, which appears Earth-like in terms of excursion and reversal occurrence frequency. Excursions from this simulation show differing characteristics, including differences in spectral power evolution. Some cases show similarities to the Laschamp and Mono Lake excursions in the spherical harmonic models. In particular they all indicate that excursions are mainly governed by the axial dipole term and equatorial dipole terms play a minor role.

  13. Global gyrokinetic and fluid hybrid simulations of tokamaks and stellarators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Michael David John

    2016-07-15

    Achieving commercial production of electricity by magnetic confinement fusion requires improvements in energy and particle confinement. In order to better understand and optimise confinement, numerical simulations of plasma phenomena are useful. One particularly challenging regime is that in which long wavelength MHD phenomena interact with kinetic phenomena. In such a regime, global electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations are necessary. In this regime, computational requirements have been excessive for Eulerian methods, while Particle-in-Cell (PIC) methods have been particularly badly affected by the 'cancellation problem', a numerical problem resulting from the structure of the electromagnetic gyrokinetic equations. A number of researchers have been working on mitigating this problem with some significant successes. Another alternative to mitigating the problem is to move to a hybrid system of fluid and gyrokinetic equations. At the expense of reducing the physical content of the numerical model, particularly electron kinetic physics, it is possible in this way to perform global electromagnetic PIC simulations retaining ion gyrokinetic effects but eliminating the cancellation problem. The focus of this work has been the implementation of two such hybrid models into the gyrokinetic code EUTERPE. The two models treat electrons and the entire bulk plasma respectively as a fluid. Both models are additionally capable of considering the self-consistent interaction of an energetic ion species, described gyrokinetically, with the perturbed fields. These two models have been successfully benchmarked in linear growth rate and frequency against other codes for a Toroidal Alfven Eigenmode (TAE) case in both the linear and non-linear regimes. The m=1 internal kink mode, which is particularly challenging in terms of the fully gyrokinetic cancellation problem, has also been successfully benchmarked using the hybrid models with the MHD eigenvalue code CKA. Non

  14. Global gyrokinetic and fluid hybrid simulations of tokamaks and stellarators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, Michael David John

    2016-01-01

    Achieving commercial production of electricity by magnetic confinement fusion requires improvements in energy and particle confinement. In order to better understand and optimise confinement, numerical simulations of plasma phenomena are useful. One particularly challenging regime is that in which long wavelength MHD phenomena interact with kinetic phenomena. In such a regime, global electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations are necessary. In this regime, computational requirements have been excessive for Eulerian methods, while Particle-in-Cell (PIC) methods have been particularly badly affected by the 'cancellation problem', a numerical problem resulting from the structure of the electromagnetic gyrokinetic equations. A number of researchers have been working on mitigating this problem with some significant successes. Another alternative to mitigating the problem is to move to a hybrid system of fluid and gyrokinetic equations. At the expense of reducing the physical content of the numerical model, particularly electron kinetic physics, it is possible in this way to perform global electromagnetic PIC simulations retaining ion gyrokinetic effects but eliminating the cancellation problem. The focus of this work has been the implementation of two such hybrid models into the gyrokinetic code EUTERPE. The two models treat electrons and the entire bulk plasma respectively as a fluid. Both models are additionally capable of considering the self-consistent interaction of an energetic ion species, described gyrokinetically, with the perturbed fields. These two models have been successfully benchmarked in linear growth rate and frequency against other codes for a Toroidal Alfven Eigenmode (TAE) case in both the linear and non-linear regimes. The m=1 internal kink mode, which is particularly challenging in terms of the fully gyrokinetic cancellation problem, has also been successfully benchmarked using the hybrid models with the MHD eigenvalue code CKA. Non-linear simulations

  15. Simulation of spontaneous and variable global dust storms with the GFDL Mars GCM

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Shabari; Wilson, John; Richardson, Mark; Ingersoll, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    We report on the successful simulation of global dust storms in a general circulation model. The simulated storms develop spontaneously in multiyear simulations and exhibit significant interannual variability. The simulated storms produce dramatic increases in atmospheric dustiness, global-mean air temperatures, and atmospheric circulation intensity, in accord with observations. As with observed global storms, spontaneous initiation of storms in the model occurs in southern spring and summer,...

  16. Global Monte Carlo Simulation with High Order Polynomial Expansions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    William R. Martin; James Paul Holloway; Kaushik Banerjee; Jesse Cheatham; Jeremy Conlin

    2007-01-01

    The functional expansion technique (FET) was recently developed for Monte Carlo simulation. The basic idea of the FET is to expand a Monte Carlo tally in terms of a high order expansion, the coefficients of which can be estimated via the usual random walk process in a conventional Monte Carlo code. If the expansion basis is chosen carefully, the lowest order coefficient is simply the conventional histogram tally, corresponding to a flat mode. This research project studied the applicability of using the FET to estimate the fission source, from which fission sites can be sampled for the next generation. The idea is that individual fission sites contribute to expansion modes that may span the geometry being considered, possibly increasing the communication across a loosely coupled system and thereby improving convergence over the conventional fission bank approach used in most production Monte Carlo codes. The project examined a number of basis functions, including global Legendre polynomials as well as 'local' piecewise polynomials such as finite element hat functions and higher order versions. The global FET showed an improvement in convergence over the conventional fission bank approach. The local FET methods showed some advantages versus global polynomials in handling geometries with discontinuous material properties. The conventional finite element hat functions had the disadvantage that the expansion coefficients could not be estimated directly but had to be obtained by solving a linear system whose matrix elements were estimated. An alternative fission matrix-based response matrix algorithm was formulated. Studies were made of two alternative applications of the FET, one based on the kernel density estimator and one based on Arnoldi's method of minimized iterations. Preliminary results for both methods indicate improvements in fission source convergence. These developments indicate that the FET has promise for speeding up Monte Carlo fission source convergence

  17. Numerical simulation of global formation of auroral arcs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, A.; Sato, T.

    1980-01-01

    Global simulation of auroral arcs is performed, based on the feedback theory of auroral arcs (Sato, 1978), for a three-dimensionally coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere system which includes two pairs of large-scale Birkeland currents, large-scale polar cap electric fields, and a day-night asymmetry of the electron density distribution. Simulation results have shown that auroral arcs are formed in the dark sector of the auroral oval, more preferentially in the evening sector. They usually appear in multiples with a shape elongating in the east-west direction, each arc being a couple of thousand kilometers in length and 10 to 40 km in width. A pair of small-scale, upward and downward, Birkeland currents is associated with each arc, the density of which becomes 10 to 200 μA/m 2 at 110-km height, and the intensity of the associated electrojet reaches 5 to 20 kA. Each arc is strongly polarized in the direction of the large-scale northsouth current so that the electric field inside the arc is reduced considerably from its ambient value. What controls the formation of auroral arcs (growing speed, locations, arc width, etc.) is examined in detail. For example, the arc width becomes sharper, as the bounce time of the Alfven wave decreases. The overall structure of auroras is largely dependent upon the large-scale Birkeland current, the electric field, and the electron density distribution in the auroral oval

  18. Simulated Annealing-Based Krill Herd Algorithm for Global Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gai-Ge Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Gandomi and Alavi proposed a novel swarm intelligent method, called krill herd (KH, for global optimization. To enhance the performance of the KH method, in this paper, a new improved meta-heuristic simulated annealing-based krill herd (SKH method is proposed for optimization tasks. A new krill selecting (KS operator is used to refine krill behavior when updating krill’s position so as to enhance its reliability and robustness dealing with optimization problems. The introduced KS operator involves greedy strategy and accepting few not-so-good solutions with a low probability originally used in simulated annealing (SA. In addition, a kind of elitism scheme is used to save the best individuals in the population in the process of the krill updating. The merits of these improvements are verified by fourteen standard benchmarking functions and experimental results show that, in most cases, the performance of this improved meta-heuristic SKH method is superior to, or at least highly competitive with, the standard KH and other optimization methods.

  19. Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.

    1999-01-01

    Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

  20. A 20-year simulated climatology of global dust aerosol deposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yu; Zhao, Tianliang; Che, Huizheng; Liu, Yu; Han, Yongxiang; Liu, Chong; Xiong, Jie; Liu, Jianhui; Zhou, Yike

    2016-07-01

    Based on a 20-year (1991-2010) simulation of dust aerosol deposition with the global climate model CAM5.1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1), the spatial and temporal variations of dust aerosol deposition were analyzed using climate statistical methods. The results indicated that the annual amount of global dust aerosol deposition was approximately 1161±31Mt, with a decreasing trend, and its interannual variation range of 2.70% over 1991-2010. The 20-year average ratio of global dust dry to wet depositions was 1.12, with interannual variation of 2.24%, showing the quantity of dry deposition of dust aerosol was greater than dust wet deposition. High dry deposition was centered over continental deserts and surrounding regions, while wet deposition was a dominant deposition process over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and northern Indian Ocean. Furthermore, both dry and wet deposition presented a zonal distribution. To examine the regional changes of dust aerosol deposition on land and sea areas, we chose the North Atlantic, Eurasia, northern Indian Ocean, North Pacific and Australia to analyze the interannual and seasonal variations of dust deposition and dry-to-wet deposition ratio. The deposition amounts of each region showed interannual fluctuations with the largest variation range at around 26.96% in the northern Indian Ocean area, followed by the North Pacific (16.47%), Australia (9.76%), North Atlantic (9.43%) and Eurasia (6.03%). The northern Indian Ocean also had the greatest amplitude of interannual variation in dry-to-wet deposition ratio, at 22.41%, followed by the North Atlantic (9.69%), Australia (6.82%), North Pacific (6.31%) and Eurasia (4.36%). Dust aerosol presented a seasonal cycle, with typically strong deposition in spring and summer and weak deposition in autumn and winter. The dust deposition over the northern Indian Ocean exhibited the greatest seasonal change range at about 118.00%, while the North Atlantic showed the lowest seasonal

  1. Global options for biofuels from plantations according to IMAGE simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battjes, J.J.

    1994-07-01

    In this report the contribution of biofuels to the renewable energy supply and the transition towards it are discussed for the energy crops miscanthus, eucalyptus, poplar, wheat and sugar cane. Bio-electricity appears to be the most suitable option regarding energetic and financial aspects and in terms of avoided CO 2 emissions. The IMAGE 2.0 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system, and mainly used here for making more realistic estimates. Dynamic calculations are performed to the year 2100. An IMAGE 2.0-based Conventional Wisdom scenario simulates, among other things, future energy demand and supply, future food production, future land cover patterns and future greenhouse gas emissions. Two biofuel scenarios are described in this report. The first consists of growing energy crops on set asides. According to a 'Conventional Wisdom' scenario, Canada, the U.S. and Europe and to a lesser extent Latin America will experience set asides due to a declining demand in agricultural area. The second biofuel scenario consists of growing energy crops on set asides and on 10% of the agricultural area in the developing countries. Growing energy crops on all of the areas listed above leads to an energy production that consists of about 12% of the total non-renewable energy use in 2050, according to the 'Conventional Wisdom' scenario. Furthermore, the energy related CO 2 emissions are reduced with about 15% in 2050, compared to the Conventional Wisdom scenario. Financial aspects will have great influence on the success of growing energy crops. However, energy generated from biomass derived from plantations is currently more expensive than generating it from traditional fuels. Levying taxes on CO 2 emissions and giving subsidies to biofuels will reduce the cost price difference between fossil fuels and biofuels

  2. Hydrological simulation of the Brahmaputra basin using global datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Conway, Crystal; Craven, Joanne; Masih, Ilyas; Mazzolini, Maurizio; Shrestha, Shreedeepy; Ugay, Reyne; van Andel, Schalk Jan

    2017-04-01

    Brahmaputra River flows through China, India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal and is one of the largest rivers of the world with a catchment size of 580K km2. The catchment is largely hilly and/or forested with sparse population and with limited urbanisation and economic activities. The catchment experiences heavy monsoon rainfall leading to very high flood discharges. Large inter-annual variation of discharge leading to flooding, erosion and morphological changes are among the major challenges. The catchment is largely ungauged; moreover, limited availability of hydro-meteorological data limits the possibility of carrying out evidence based research, which could provide trustworthy information for managing and when needed, controlling, the basin processes by the riparian countries for overall basin development. The paper presents initial results of a current research project on Brahmaputra basin. A set of hydrological and hydraulic models (SWAT, HMS, RAS) are developed by employing publicly available datasets of DEM, land use and soil and simulated using satellite based rainfall products, evapotranspiration and temperature estimates. Remotely sensed data are compared with sporadically available ground data. The set of models are able to produce catchment wide hydrological information that potentially can be used in the future in managing the basin's water resources. The model predications should be used with caution due to high level of uncertainty because the semi-calibrated models are developed with uncertain physical representation (e.g. cross-section) and simulated with global meteorological forcing (e.g. TRMM) with limited validation. Major scientific challenges are seen in producing robust information that can be reliably used in managing the basin. The information generated by the models are uncertain and as a result, instead of using them per se, they are used in improving the understanding of the catchment, and by running several scenarios with varying

  3. Global simulation of aromatic volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera Perez, David; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Pozzer, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Among the large number of chemical compounds in the atmosphere, the organic group plays a key role in the tropospheric chemistry. Specifically the subgroup called aromatics is of great interest. Aromatics are the predominant trace gases in urban areas due to high emissions, primarily by vehicle exhausts and fuel evaporation. They are also present in areas where biofuel is used (i.e residential wood burning). Emissions of aromatic compounds are a substantial fraction of the total emissions of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Impact of aromatics on human health is very important, as they do not only contribute to the ozone formation in the urban environment, but they are also highly toxic themselves, especially in the case of benzene which is able to trigger a range of illness under long exposure, and of nitro-phenols which cause detrimental for humans and vegetation even at very low concentrations. The aim of this work is to assess the atmospheric impacts of aromatic compounds on the global scale. The main goals are: lifetime and budget estimation, mixing ratios distribution, net effect on ozone production and OH loss for the most emitted aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene and trimethylbenzenes). For this purpose, we use the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model to build the global atmospheric budget for the most emitted and predominant aromatic compounds in the atmosphere. A set of emissions was prepared in order to include biomass burning, vegetation and anthropogenic sources of aromatics into the model. A chemical mechanism based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was developed to describe the chemical oxidation in the gas phase of these aromatic compounds. MCM have been reduced in terms of number of chemical equation and species in order to make it affordable in a 3D model. Additionally other features have been added, for instance the production of HONO via ortho

  4. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, Marí a; Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity

  5. Social interaction, globalization and computer-aided analysis a practical guide to developing social simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Osherenko, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    This thorough, multidisciplinary study discusses the findings of social interaction and social simulation using understandable global examples. Shows the reader how to acquire intercultural data, illustrating each step with descriptive comments and program code.

  6. Field Simulation of Global Change: Transplanting Northern Bog Mesocosms Southward

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breeuwer, A.J.G.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Robroek, B.J.M.; Berendse, F.

    2010-01-01

    A large proportion of northern peatlands consists of Sphagnum-dominated ombrotrophic bogs. In these bogs, peat mosses (Sphagnum) and vascular plants occur in an apparent stable equilibrium, thereby sustaining the carbon sink function of the bog ecosystem. How global warming and increased nitrogen

  7. New technique for global solar radiation forecasting by simulated annealing and genetic algorithms using

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolabi, H.B.; Ayob, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a novel approach based on simulated annealing algorithm as a meta-heuristic method is implemented in MATLAB software to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for six different climate cities of Iran. A search method based on genetic algorithm is applied to accelerate problem solving. Results show that simulated annealing based on genetic algorithm search is a suitable method to find the global solar radiation. (author)

  8. Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Nichols, Jeff A. {Cyber Sciences} [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Wang, Dali [ORNL; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL; Singh, Nagendra [ORNL; Kang, Shujiang [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Contemporary global assessments of the deployment potential and sustainability aspects of biofuel crops lack quantitative details. This paper describes an analytical framework capable of meeting the challenges associated with global scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed a modeling platform for bioenergy crops, consisting of five major components: (i) standardized global natural resources and management data sets, (ii) global simulation unit and management scenarios, (iii) model calibration and validation, (iv) high-performance computing (HPC) modeling, and (v) simulation output processing and analysis. A case study with the HPC- Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (HPC-EPIC) to simulate a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and global biomass feedstock analysis on grassland demonstrates the application of this platform. The results illustrate biomass feedstock variability of switchgrass and provide insights on how the modeling platform can be expanded to better assess sustainable production criteria and other biomass crops. Feedstock potentials on global grasslands and within different countries are also shown. Future efforts involve developing databases of productivity, implementing global simulations for other bioenergy crops (e.g. miscanthus, energycane and agave), and assessing environmental impacts under various management regimes. We anticipated this platform will provide an exemplary tool and assessment data for international communities to conduct global analysis of biofuel biomass feedstocks and sustainability.

  9. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  10. Computational Approaches to Simulation and Optimization of Global Aircraft Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Hok Kwan; Sridhar, Banavar

    2016-01-01

    This study examines three possible approaches to improving the speed in generating wind-optimal routes for air traffic at the national or global level. They are: (a) using the resources of a supercomputer, (b) running the computations on multiple commercially available computers and (c) implementing those same algorithms into NASAs Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and compares those to a standard implementation run on a single CPU. Wind-optimal aircraft trajectories are computed using global air traffic schedules. The run time and wait time on the supercomputer for trajectory optimization using various numbers of CPUs ranging from 80 to 10,240 units are compared with the total computational time for running the same computation on a single desktop computer and on multiple commercially available computers for potential computational enhancement through parallel processing on the computer clusters. This study also re-implements the trajectory optimization algorithm for further reduction of computational time through algorithm modifications and integrates that with FACET to facilitate the use of the new features which calculate time-optimal routes between worldwide airport pairs in a wind field for use with existing FACET applications. The implementations of trajectory optimization algorithms use MATLAB, Python, and Java programming languages. The performance evaluations are done by comparing their computational efficiencies and based on the potential application of optimized trajectories. The paper shows that in the absence of special privileges on a supercomputer, a cluster of commercially available computers provides a feasible approach for national and global air traffic system studies.

  11. Visualization and analysis of eddies in a global ocean simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Sean J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hecht, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Petersen, Mark [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Strelitz, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maltrud, Mathew E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlawitschka, Mario [UC DAVIS; Hamann, Bernd [UC DAVIS

    2010-10-15

    Eddies at a scale of approximately one hundred kilometers have been shown to be surprisingly important to understanding large-scale transport of heat and nutrients in the ocean. Due to difficulties in observing the ocean directly, the behavior of eddies below the surface is not very well understood. To fill this gap, we employ a high-resolution simulation of the ocean developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Using large-scale parallel visualization and analysis tools, we produce three-dimensional images of ocean eddies, and also generate a census of eddy distribution and shape averaged over multiple simulation time steps, resulting in a world map of eddy characteristics. As expected from observational studies, our census reveals a higher concentration of eddies at the mid-latitudes than the equator. Our analysis further shows that mid-latitude eddies are thicker, within a range of 1000-2000m, while equatorial eddies are less than 100m thick.

  12. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  13. KEYNOTE: Simulation, computation, and the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Victor, Dr.

    2006-01-01

    Dr. Victor Reis delivered the keynote talk at the closing session of the conference. The talk was forward looking and focused on the importance of advanced computing for large-scale nuclear energy goals such as Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). Dr. Reis discussed the important connections of GNEP to the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the SciDAC research portfolio. In the context of GNEP, Dr. Reis talked about possible fuel leasing configurations, strategies for their implementation, and typical fuel cycle flow sheets. A major portion of the talk addressed lessons learnt from ‘Science Based Stockpile Stewardship’ and the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) initiative and how they can provide guidance for advancing GNEP and SciDAC goals. Dr. Reis’s colorful and informative presentation included international proverbs, quotes and comments, in tune with the international flavor that is part of the GNEP philosophy and plan. He concluded with a positive and motivating outlook for peaceful nuclear energy and its potential to solve global problems. An interview with Dr. Reis, addressing some of the above issues, is the cover story of Issue 2 of the SciDAC Review and available at http://www.scidacreview.org This summary of Dr. Reis’s PowerPoint presentation was prepared by Institute of Physics Publishing, the complete PowerPoint version of Dr. Reis’s talk at SciDAC 2006 is given as a multimedia attachment to this summary.

  14. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  15. Global full-f gyrokinetic simulations of plasma turbulence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grandgirard, V [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Sarazin, Y [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Angelino, P [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Bottino, A [Max Plank Institut fr Plasmaphysik, IPP-EURATOM AssociationGarching (Germany); Crouseilles, N [IRMA, Universite Louis Pasteur, 7, rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg Cedex (France); Darmet, G [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Dif-Pradalier, G [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Garbet, X [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Ghendrih, Ph [CEA/DSM/DRFC, Association Euratom-CEA, Cadarache, 13108 St Paul-lez-Durance (France); Jolliet, S [CRPP, Association Euratom-Confederation Suisse, EPFL, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Latu, G [LaBRI, 341 Cours Liberation, 33405 Talence Cedex (France); Sonnendruecker, E [IRMA, Universite Louis Pasteur, 7, rue Rene Descartes, 67084 Strasbourg Cedex (France); Villard, L [CRPP, Association Euratom-Confederation Suisse, EPFL, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2007-12-15

    Critical physical issues can be specifically tackled with the global full-f gyrokinetic code GYSELA. Three main results are presented. First, the self-consistent treatment of equilibrium and fluctuations highlights the competition between two compensation mechanisms for the curvature driven vertical charge separation, namely, parallel flow and polarization. The impact of the latter on the turbulent transport is discussed. In the non-linear regime, the benchmark with the Particle-In-Cell code ORB5 looks satisfactory. Second, the transport scaling with {rho}{sub *} is found to depend both on {rho}{sub *} itself and on the distance to the linear threshold. Finally, a statistical steady-state turbulent regime is achieved in a reduced version of GYSELA by prescribing a constant heat source.

  16. Global full-f gyrokinetic simulations of plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandgirard, V; Sarazin, Y; Angelino, P; Bottino, A; Crouseilles, N; Darmet, G; Dif-Pradalier, G; Garbet, X; Ghendrih, Ph; Jolliet, S; Latu, G; Sonnendruecker, E; Villard, L

    2007-01-01

    Critical physical issues can be specifically tackled with the global full-f gyrokinetic code GYSELA. Three main results are presented. First, the self-consistent treatment of equilibrium and fluctuations highlights the competition between two compensation mechanisms for the curvature driven vertical charge separation, namely, parallel flow and polarization. The impact of the latter on the turbulent transport is discussed. In the non-linear regime, the benchmark with the Particle-In-Cell code ORB5 looks satisfactory. Second, the transport scaling with ρ * is found to depend both on ρ * itself and on the distance to the linear threshold. Finally, a statistical steady-state turbulent regime is achieved in a reduced version of GYSELA by prescribing a constant heat source

  17. Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roshan, G.R.; Ranjbar, F. [Univ. of Tehran (IR). Dept. of Physical Geography; Orosa, J.A. [Univ. of A Coruna (Spain). Dept. of Energy

    2010-07-01

    In the coming decades, global warming and increase in temperature, in different regions of the world, may change indoor and outdoor thermal comfort conditions and human health. The aim of this research was to study the effects of global warming on thermal comfort conditions in indoor ambiences in Iran. To study the increase in temperature, model for assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change scenario generator compound model has been used together with four scenarios and to estimate thermal comfort conditions, adaptive model of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers has been used. In this study, Iran was divided into 30 zones, outdoor conditions were obtained using meteorological data of 80 climatological stations and changes in neutral comfort conditions in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 were predicted. In accordance with each scenario, findings from this study showed that temperature in the 30 zones will increase by 2100 to between 3.4 C and 5.6 C. In the coming decades and in the 30 studied zones, neutral comfort temperature will increase and be higher and more intense in the central and desert zones of Iran. The low increase in this temperature will be connected to the coastal areas of the Caspian and Oman Sea in southeast Iran. This increase in temperature will be followed by a change in thermal comfort and indoor energy consumption from 8.6 % to 13.1 % in air conditioning systems. As a result, passive methods as thermal inertia are proposed as a possible solution.

  18. Simulating REAL LIVES: Promoting Global Empathy and Interest in Learning through Simulation Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachen, Christine M.; Hernandez-Ramos, Pedro F.; Raphael, Chad

    2012-01-01

    In response to an increasingly interdependent world, educators are demonstrating a growing interest in educating for global citizenship. Many definitions of the "good global citizen" value empathy as an especially important disposition for understanding others across national borders and cultural divides. Yet it may be difficult for…

  19. The effects of global warming on fisheries: Simulation estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Medel

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops two fisheries models in order to estimate the effect of global warming (GW on firm value. GW is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface as a result of emissions. It is assumed that (i GW exists, and (ii higher temperatures negatively affect biomass. CO2 The literature on biology and GW supporting these two crucial assumptions is reviewed. The main argument presented is that temperature increase has two effects on biomass, both of which have an impact on firm value. First, higher temperatures cause biomass to oscillate. To measure the effect of biomass oscillation on firm value the model in [1] is modified to include water temperature as a variable. The results indicate that a 1 to 20% variation in biomass causes firm value to fall from 6 to 44%, respectively. Second, higher temperatures reduce biomass, and a modification of the model in [2] reveals that an increase in temperature anomaly between +1 and +8°C causes fishing firm value to decrease by 8 to 10%.

  20. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  1. DIPOLE COLLAPSE AND DYNAMO WAVES IN GLOBAL DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrinner, Martin; Dormy, Emmanuel [MAG (ENS/IPGP), LRA, Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 Rue Lhomond, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Petitdemange, Ludovic, E-mail: martin@schrinner.eu [Previously at Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany. (Germany)

    2012-06-20

    Magnetic fields of low-mass stars and planets are thought to originate from self-excited dynamo action in their convective interiors. Observations reveal a variety of field topologies ranging from large-scale, axial dipoles to more structured magnetic fields. In this article, we investigate more than 70 three-dimensional, self-consistent dynamo models in the Boussinesq approximation obtained by direct numerical simulations. The control parameters, the aspect ratio, and the mechanical boundary conditions have been varied to build up this sample of models. Both strongly dipolar and multipolar models have been obtained. We show that these dynamo regimes in general can be distinguished by the ratio of a typical convective length scale to the Rossby radius. Models with a predominantly dipolar magnetic field were obtained, if the convective length scale is at least an order of magnitude larger than the Rossby radius. Moreover, we highlight the role of the strong shear associated with the geostrophic zonal flow for models with stress-free boundary conditions. In this case the above transition disappears and is replaced by a region of bistability for which dipolar and multipolar dynamos coexist. We interpret our results in terms of dynamo eigenmodes using the so-called test-field method. We can thus show that models in the dipolar regime are characterized by an isolated 'single mode'. Competing overtones become significant as the boundary to multipolar dynamos is approached. We discuss how these findings relate to previous models and to observations.

  2. Particle tracking code of simulating global RF feedback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mestha, L.K.

    1991-09-01

    It is well known in the ''control community'' that a good feedback controller design is deeply rooted in the physics of the system. For example, when accelerating the beam we must keep several parameters under control so that the beam travels within the confined space. Important parameters include the frequency and phase of the rf signal, the dipole field, and the cavity voltage. Because errors in these parameters will progressively mislead the beam from its projected path in the tube, feedback loops are used to correct the behavior. Since the feedback loop feeds energy to the system, it changes the overall behavior of the system and may drive it to instability. Various types of controllers are used to stabilize the feedback loop. Integrating the beam physics with the feedback controllers allows us to carefully analyze the beam behavior. This will not only guarantee optimal performance but will also significantly enhance the ability of the beam control engineer to deal effectively with the interaction of various feedback loops. Motivated by this theme, we developed a simple one-particle tracking code to simulate particle behavior with feedback controllers. In order to achieve our fundamental objective, we can ask some key questions: What are the input and output parameters? How can they be applied to the practical machine? How can one interface the rf system dynamics such as the transfer characteristics of the rf cavities and phasing between the cavities? Answers to these questions can be found by considering a simple case of a single cavity with one particle, tracking it turn-by-turn with appropriate initial conditions, then introducing constraints on crucial parameters. Critical parameters are rf frequency, phase, and amplitude once the dipole field has been given. These are arranged in the tracking code so that we can interface the feedback system controlling them

  3. EQUILIBRIUM DISKS, MAGNETOROTATIONAL INSTABILITY MODE EXCITATION, AND STEADY-STATE TURBULENCE IN GLOBAL ACCRETION DISK SIMULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkin, E. R.; Bicknell, G. V.

    2013-01-01

    Global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of turbulent accretion disks are presented which start from fully equilibrium initial conditions in which the magnetic forces are accounted for and the induction equation is satisfied. The local linear theory of the magnetorotational instability (MRI) is used as a predictor of the growth of magnetic field perturbations in the global simulations. The linear growth estimates and global simulations diverge when nonlinear motions—perhaps triggered by the onset of turbulence—upset the velocity perturbations used to excite the MRI. The saturated state is found to be independent of the initially excited MRI mode, showing that once the disk has expelled the initially net flux field and settled into quasi-periodic oscillations in the toroidal magnetic flux, the dynamo cycle regulates the global saturation stress level. Furthermore, time-averaged measures of converged turbulence, such as the ratio of magnetic energies, are found to be in agreement with previous works. In particular, the globally averaged stress normalized to the gas pressure P >bar = 0.034, with notably higher values achieved for simulations with higher azimuthal resolution. Supplementary tests are performed using different numerical algorithms and resolutions. Convergence with resolution during the initial linear MRI growth phase is found for 23-35 cells per scale height (in the vertical direction).

  4. Using global magnetospheric models for simulation and interpretation of Swarm external field measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moretto, T.; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Olsen, Nils

    2006-01-01

    simulated external contributions relevant for internal field modeling. These have proven very valuable for the design and planning of the up-coming multi-satellite Swarm mission. In addition, a real event simulation was carried out for a moderately active time interval when observations from the Orsted...... it consistently underestimates the dayside region 2 currents and overestimates the horizontal ionospheric closure currents in the dayside polar cap. Furthermore, with this example we illustrate the great benefit of utilizing the global model for the interpretation of Swarm external field observations and......, likewise, the potential of using Swarm measurements to test and improve the global model....

  5. Bringing global gyrokinetic turbulence simulations to the transport timescale using a multiscale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Jeffrey; Lodestro, Lynda; Told, Daniel; Merlo, Gabriele; Ricketson, Lee; Campos, Alejandro; Jenko, Frank; Hittinger, Jeffrey

    2017-10-01

    Predictive whole-device simulation models will play an increasingly important role in ensuring the success of fusion experiments and accelerating the development of fusion energy. In the core of tokamak plasmas, a separation of timescales between turbulence and transport makes a single direct simulation of both processes computationally expensive. We present the first demonstration of a multiple-timescale method coupling global gyrokinetic simulations with a transport solver to calculate the self-consistent, steady-state temperature profile. Initial results are highly encouraging, with the coupling method appearing robust to the difficult problem of turbulent fluctuations. The method holds potential for integrating first-principles turbulence simulations into whole-device models and advancing the understanding of global plasma behavior. Work supported by US DOE under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and the Exascale Computing Project (17-SC-20-SC).

  6. A global simulation of ICRF heating in a 3D magnetic configuration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, S.; Fukuyama, A.; Akutsu, T.

    2005-01-01

    A global simulation code for the ICRF heating analysis in a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic configuration is developed combining two global simulation codes; a drift kinetic equation solver, GNET, and a wave field solver, TASK/WM. Both codes take into account 3D geometry using the numerically obtained 3D MHD equilibrium. The developed simulation code is applied to the LHD configuration as an example. Characteristics of energetic ion distributions in the phase space are clarified in LHD. The simulation results are also compared with experimental results by evaluating the count number of the neutral particle analyzer using the obtained energetic ion distribution, and a relatively good agreement is obtained. (author)

  7. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  8. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  9. A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2018-01-01

    Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979-2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8

  10. Bringing global gyrokinetic turbulence simulations to the transport timescale using a multiscale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Jeffrey B.; LoDestro, Lynda L.; Told, Daniel; Merlo, Gabriele; Ricketson, Lee F.; Campos, Alejandro; Jenko, Frank; Hittinger, Jeffrey A. F.

    2018-05-01

    The vast separation dividing the characteristic times of energy confinement and turbulence in the core of toroidal plasmas makes first-principles prediction on long timescales extremely challenging. Here we report the demonstration of a multiple-timescale method that enables coupling global gyrokinetic simulations with a transport solver to calculate the evolution of the self-consistent temperature profile. This method, which exhibits resiliency to the intrinsic fluctuations arising in turbulence simulations, holds potential for integrating nonlocal gyrokinetic turbulence simulations into predictive, whole-device models.

  11. Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical Framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL; Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Nichols, Dr Jeff A [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Brandt, Craig C [ORNL; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL; Singh, Nagendra [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC-EPIC) model simulated a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.

  12. Simulation of preindustrial atmospheric methane to constrain the global source strength of natural wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, S; Dentener, F; Lelieveld, J

    2000-01-01

    Previous attempts to quantify the global source strength of CH4 from natural wetlands have resulted in a range of 90-260 TE(CH4) yr(-1). This relatively uncertain estimate significantly limits our understanding of atmospheric methane. In this study we reduce this uncertainty by simulating

  13. A Globalization Simulation to Teach Corporate Social Responsibility: Design Features and Analysis of Student Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Nathan D.; Shami, N. Sadat; Naab, Sara

    2006-01-01

    There is an increasing need for business students to be taught the ability to think through ethical dilemmas faced by corporations conducting business on a global scale. This article describes a multiplayer online simulation game, ISLAND TELECOM, that exposes students to ethical dilemmas in international business. Through role playing and…

  14. On numerical simulation of the global distribution of sulfate aerosol produced by a large volcanic eruption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pudykiewicz, J.A.; Dastoor, A.P. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Quebec (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Volcanic eruptions play an important role in the global sulfur cycle of the Earth`s atmosphere and can significantly perturb the global atmospheric chemistry. The large amount of sulfate aerosol produced by the oxidation of SO{sub 2} injected into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions also has a relatively big influence on the radiative equilibrium of the Earth`s climatic system. The submicron particles of the sulfate aerosol reflect solar radiation more effectively than they trap radiation in the infrared range. The effect of this is observed as cooling of the Earth`s surface. The modification of the global radiation budget following volcanic eruption can subsequently cause significant fluctuations of atmospheric variables on a subclimatic scale. The resulting perturbation of weather patterns has been observed and well documented since the eruptions of Mt. Krakatau and Mt. Tambora. The impact of the sulfate aerosol from volcanic eruptions on the radiative equilibrium of the Earth`s atmosphere was also confirmed by the studies done with Global Circulation Models designed to simulate climate. The objective of the present paper is to present a simple and effective method to estimate the global distribution of the sulfate aerosol produced as a consequence of volcanic eruptions. In this study we will present results of the simulation of global distribution of sulfate aerosol from the eruption of Mt Pinatubo.

  15. Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, K.

    2005-12-01

    I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

  16. Structural Uncertainty in Model-Simulated Trends of Global Gross Primary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaichun Zhu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes in the frequency and severity of droughts as a result of increase in greenhouse gases have a significant impact on the role of vegetation in regulating the global carbon cycle. Drought effect on vegetation Gross Primary Production (GPP is usually modeled as a function of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD and/or soil moisture. Climate projections suggest a strong likelihood of increasing trend in VPD, while regional changes in precipitation are less certain. This difference in projections between VPD and precipitation can cause considerable discrepancies in the predictions of vegetation behavior depending on how ecosystem models represent the drought effect. In this study, we scrutinized the model responses to drought using the 30-year record of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset. A diagnostic ecosystem model, Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS, was used to estimate global GPP from 1982 to 2009 under nine different experimental simulations. The control run of global GPP increased until 2000, but stayed constant after 2000. Among the simulations with single climate constraint (temperature, VPD, rainfall and solar radiation, only the VPD-driven simulation showed a decrease in 2000s, while the other scenarios simulated an increase in GPP. The diverging responses in 2000s can be attributed to the difference in the representation of the impact of water stress on vegetation in models, i.e., using VPD and/or precipitation. Spatial map of trend in simulated GPP using GIMMS 3g data is consistent with the GPP driven by soil moisture than the GPP driven by VPD, confirming the need for a soil moisture constraint in modeling global GPP.

  17. Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1991-01-01

    The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a Mini Nuclear Winter'' as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

  18. Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1991-12-31

    The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a ``Mini Nuclear Winter`` as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

  19. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  20. Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

    2011-06-01

    Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

  1. A simulation study of the global orbit feedback system for Pohang light source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kukhee; Shim, Kyuyeol; Cho, Moohyun; Namkung, Won; Ko, In Soo; Choi, Jinhyuk

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation of the global orbit feedback system using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method, the error minimization method, and the neural network method. Instead of facing unacceptable correction result raised occasionally in the SVD method, we choose the error minimization method for the global orbit feedback. This method provides minimum orbit errors while avoiding unacceptable corrections, and keeps the orbit within the dynamic aperture of the storage ring. We simulate the Pohang Light Source (PLS) storage ring using the Methodical Accelerator Design (MAD) code that generates the orbit distortions for the error minimization method and the learning data set for neural network method. In order to compare the effectiveness of the neural network method with others, a neural network is trained by the learning algorithm using the learning data set. The global response matrix with a minimum error and the trained neural network are used to the global orbit feedback system. The simulation shows that a selection of beam position monitors (BPMs) is very sensitive in the reduction of rms orbit distortions, and the random choice gives better results than any other cases. (author)

  2. Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackerras, D.; Darvenzia, M.; Orville, R. E.; Williams, E. R.; Goodman, S. J.

    1999-01-01

    A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

  3. Simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Chidong; Dong, Min [RSMAS, University of Miami, Miami, FL (United States); Gualdi, Silvio [National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Bologna (Italy); Hendon, Harry H. [BMRC, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Maloney, Eric D. [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); Marshall, Andrew [Monash University, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Sperber, Kenneth R. [PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [CPC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2006-11-15

    The status of the numerical reproduction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) by current global models was assessed through diagnoses of four pairs of coupled and uncoupled simulations. Slow eastward propagation of the MJO, especially in low-level zonal wind, is realistic in all these simulations. However, the simulated MJO suffers from several common problems. The MJO signal in precipitation is generally too weak and often eroded by an unrealistic split of an equatorial maximum of precipitation into a double ITCZ structure over the western Pacific. The MJO signal in low-level zonal wind, on the other hand, is sometimes too strong over the eastern Pacific but too weak over the Indian Ocean. The observed phase relationship between precipitation and low-level zonal wind associated with the MJO in the western Pacific and their coherence in general are not reproduced by the models. The seasonal migration in latitude of MJO activity is missing in most simulations. Air-sea coupling generally strengthens the simulated eastward propagating signal, but its effects on the phase relationship and coherence between precipitation and low-level zonal wind, and on their geographic distributions, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability are inconsistent among the simulations. Such inconsistency cautions generalization of results from MJO simulations using a single model. In comparison to observations, biases in the simulated MJO appear to be related to biases in the background state of mean precipitation, low-level zonal wind, and boundary-layer moisture convergence. This study concludes that, while the realistic simulations of the eastward propagation of the MJO are encouraging, reproducing other fundamental features of the MJO by current global models remains an unmet challenge. (orig.)

  4. Improved Synthesis of Global Irradiance with One-Minute Resolution for PV System Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Hofmann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available High resolution global irradiance time series are needed for accurate simulations of photovoltaic (PV systems, since the typical volatile PV power output induced by fast irradiance changes cannot be simulated properly with commonly available hourly averages of global irradiance. We present a two-step algorithm that is capable of synthesizing one-minute global irradiance time series based on hourly averaged datasets. The algorithm is initialized by deriving characteristic transition probability matrices (TPM for different weather conditions (cloudless, broken clouds and overcast from a large number of high resolution measurements. Once initialized, the algorithm is location-independent and capable of synthesizing one-minute values based on hourly averaged global irradiance of any desired location. The one-minute time series are derived by discrete-time Markov chains based on a TPM that matches the weather condition of the input dataset. One-minute time series generated with the presented algorithm are compared with measured high resolution data and show a better agreement compared to two existing synthesizing algorithms in terms of temporal variability and characteristic frequency distributions of global irradiance and clearness index values. A comparison based on measurements performed in Lindenberg, Germany, and Carpentras, France, shows a reduction of the frequency distribution root mean square errors of more than 60% compared to the two existing synthesizing algorithms.

  5. Simulated effects of nitrogen saturation the global carbon budget using the IBIS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Xiuying; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhang, Zhen; Peng, Changhui

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 100 years, human activity has greatly changed the rate of atmospheric N (nitrogen) deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, resulting in N saturation in some regions of the world. The contribution of N saturation to the global carbon budget remains uncertain due to the complicated nature of C-N (carbon-nitrogen) interactions and diverse geography. Although N deposition is included in most terrestrial ecosystem models, the effect of N saturation is frequently overlooked. In this study, the IBIS (Integrated BIosphere Simulator) was used to simulate the global-scale effects of N saturation during the period 1961–2009. The results of this model indicate that N saturation reduced global NPP (Net Primary Productivity) and NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity) by 0.26 and 0.03 Pg C yr−1, respectively. The negative effects of N saturation on carbon sequestration occurred primarily in temperate forests and grasslands. In response to elevated CO2 levels, global N turnover slowed due to increased biomass growth, resulting in a decline in soil mineral N. These changes in N cycling reduced the impact of N saturation on the global carbon budget. However, elevated N deposition in certain regions may further alter N saturation and C-N coupling.

  6. ARM Cloud Radar Simulator Package for Global Climate Models Value-Added Product

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-05-01

    It has been challenging to directly compare U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ground-based cloud radar measurements with climate model output because of limitations or features of the observing processes and the spatial gap between model and the single-point measurements. To facilitate the use of ARM radar data in numerical models, an ARM cloud radar simulator was developed to converts model data into pseudo-ARM cloud radar observations that mimic the instrument view of a narrow atmospheric column (as compared to a large global climate model [GCM] grid-cell), thus allowing meaningful comparison between model output and ARM cloud observations. The ARM cloud radar simulator value-added product (VAP) was developed based on the CloudSat simulator contained in the community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011), which has been widely used in climate model evaluation with satellite data (Klein et al., 2013, Zhang et al., 2010). The essential part of the CloudSat simulator is the QuickBeam radar simulator that is used to produce CloudSat-like radar reflectivity, but is capable of simulating reflectivity for other radars (Marchand et al., 2009; Haynes et al., 2007). Adapting QuickBeam to the ARM cloud radar simulator within COSP required two primary changes: one was to set the frequency to 35 GHz for the ARM Ka-band cloud radar, as opposed to 94 GHz used for the CloudSat W-band radar, and the second was to invert the view from the ground to space so as to attenuate the beam correctly. In addition, the ARM cloud radar simulator uses a finer vertical resolution (100 m compared to 500 m for CloudSat) to resolve the more detailed structure of clouds captured by the ARM radars. The ARM simulator has been developed following the COSP workflow (Figure 1) and using the capabilities available in COSP

  7. Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

    2016-12-01

    The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

  8. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  9. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Mizielinski

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km, N216 (60 km and N96 (130 km as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS, and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.

  10. A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichii, Kazuhito; Murakami, Kazutaka; Mukai, Toshikazu; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Ogawa, Katsuro

    2003-01-01

    A simple Earth system model, the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model, has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO 2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model, the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model, and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model, which includes the greenhouse effect of CO 2 and H 2 O, and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model, which includes biospheric CO 2 fertilization, vegetation area variation, the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content, soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the 'business as usual' (IS92a) emission scenario, followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170, and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO 2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies, because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO 2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO 2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO 2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand, as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained, we have to quantify and constrain the effect more

  11. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Frieler, K.; Schewe, J.; Ostberg, S.; Willner, S. N.; Schauberger, B.; Gosling, S.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Portmann, F. T.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hanasaki, N.; Biemans, H.; Gerten, D.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Stacke, T.; Ciais, P.; Chang, J.; Ducharne, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Wada, Y.; Kim, H.; Yamazaki, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  12. Simulated Stochastic Approximation Annealing for Global Optimization With a Square-Root Cooling Schedule

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2014-04-03

    Simulated annealing has been widely used in the solution of optimization problems. As known by many researchers, the global optima cannot be guaranteed to be located by simulated annealing unless a logarithmic cooling schedule is used. However, the logarithmic cooling schedule is so slow that no one can afford to use this much CPU time. This article proposes a new stochastic optimization algorithm, the so-called simulated stochastic approximation annealing algorithm, which is a combination of simulated annealing and the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. Under the framework of stochastic approximation, it is shown that the new algorithm can work with a cooling schedule in which the temperature can decrease much faster than in the logarithmic cooling schedule, for example, a square-root cooling schedule, while guaranteeing the global optima to be reached when the temperature tends to zero. The new algorithm has been tested on a few benchmark optimization problems, including feed-forward neural network training and protein-folding. The numerical results indicate that the new algorithm can significantly outperform simulated annealing and other competitors. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  13. Global Hybrid Simulations of Energetic Particle-driven Modes in Toroidal Plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, G.Y.; Breslau, J.; Fredrickson, E.; Park, W.; Strauss, H.R.

    2004-01-01

    Global hybrid simulations of energetic particle-driven MHD modes have been carried out for tokamaks and spherical tokamaks using the hybrid code M3D. The numerical results for the National Spherical Tokamak Experiments (NSTX) show that Toroidal Alfven Eigenmodes are excited by beam ions with their frequencies consistent with the experimental observations. Nonlinear simulations indicate that the n=2 mode frequency chirps down as the mode moves out radially. For ITER, it is shown that the alpha-particle effects are strongly stabilizing for internal kink mode when central safety factor q(0) is sufficiently close to unity. However, the elongation of ITER plasma shape reduces the stabilization significantly

  14. Finite element approach to global gyrokinetic particle-in-cell simulations using magnetic coordinate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fivaz, M.; Brunner, S.; Ridder, G. de; Sauter, O.; Tran, T.M.; Vaclavik, J.; Villard, L.; Appert, K.

    1997-08-01

    We present a fully-global linear gyrokinetic simulation code (GYGLES) aimed at describing the instable spectrum of the ion-temperature-gradient modes in toroidal geometry. We formulate the Particle-In-Cell method with finite elements defined in magnetic coordinates, which provides excellent numerical convergence properties. The poloidal mode structure corresponding to k // =0 is extracted without approximation from the equations, which reduces drastically the numerical resolution needed. The code can simulate routinely modes with both very long and very short toroidal wavelengths, can treat realistic (MHD) equilibria of any size and runs on a massively parallel computer. (author) 10 figs., 28 refs

  15. GLOBAL RANDOM WALK SIMULATIONS FOR SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF PASSIVE TRANSPORT MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Suciu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Global Random Walk algorithm (GRW performs a simultaneoustracking on a fixed grid of huge numbers of particles at costscomparable to those of a single-trajectory simulation by the traditional Particle Tracking (PT approach. Statistical ensembles of GRW simulations of a typical advection-dispersion process in groundwater systems with randomly distributed spatial parameters are used to obtain reliable estimations of the input parameters for the upscaled transport model and of their correlations, input-output correlations, as well as full probability distributions of the input and output parameters.

  16. A dynamic globalization model for large eddy simulation of complex turbulent flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Hae Cheon; Park, No Ma; Kim, Jin Seok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    A dynamic subgrid-scale model is proposed for large eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometry. The eddy viscosity model by Vreman [Phys. Fluids, 16, 3670 (2004)] is considered as a base model. A priori tests with the original Vreman model show that it predicts the correct profile of subgrid-scale dissipation in turbulent channel flow but the optimal model coefficient is far from universal. Dynamic procedures of determining the model coefficient are proposed based on the 'global equilibrium' between the subgrid-scale dissipation and viscous dissipation. An important feature of the proposed procedures is that the model coefficient determined is globally constant in space but varies only in time. Large eddy simulations with the present dynamic model are conducted for forced isotropic turbulence, turbulent channel flow and flow over a sphere, showing excellent agreements with previous results.

  17. A Madden-Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Nasuno, Tomoe; Noda, Akira T; Oouchi, Kazuyoshi

    2007-12-14

    A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a massive weather event consisting of deep convection coupled with atmospheric circulation, moving slowly eastward over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Despite its enormous influence on many weather and climate systems worldwide, it has proven very difficult to simulate an MJO because of assumptions about cumulus clouds in global meteorological models. Using a model that allows direct coupling of the atmospheric circulation and clouds, we successfully simulated the slow eastward migration of an MJO event. Topography, the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, and interplay between eastward- and westward-propagating signals controlled the timing of the eastward transition of the convective center. Our results demonstrate the potential making of month-long MJO predictions when global cloud-resolving models with realistic initial conditions are used.

  18. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Bodeker

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not

  19. CFD simulation of local and global mixing time in an agitated tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liangchao; Xu, Bin

    2017-01-01

    The Issue of mixing efficiency in agitated tanks has drawn serious concern in many industrial processes. The turbulence model is very critical to predicting mixing process in agitated tanks. On the basis of computational fluid dynamics(CFD) software package Fluent 6.2, the mixing characteristics in a tank agitated by dual six-blade-Rushton-turbines(6-DT) are predicted using the detached eddy simulation(DES) method. A sliding mesh(SM) approach is adopted to solve the rotation of the impeller. The simulated flow patterns and liquid velocities in the agitated tank are verified by experimental data in the literature. The simulation results indicate that the DES method can obtain more flow details than Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) model. Local and global mixing time in the agitated tank is predicted by solving a tracer concentration scalar transport equation. The simulated results show that feeding points have great influence on mixing process and mixing time. Mixing efficiency is the highest for the feeding point at location of midway of the two impellers. Two methods are used to determine global mixing time and get close result. Dimensionless global mixing time remains unchanged with increasing of impeller speed. Parallel, merging and diverging flow pattern form in the agitated tank, respectively, by changing the impeller spacing and clearance of lower impeller from the bottom of the tank. The global mixing time is the shortest for the merging flow, followed by diverging flow, and the longest for parallel flow. The research presents helpful references for design, optimization and scale-up of agitated tanks with multi-impeller.

  20. GNES-R: Global nuclear energy simulator for reactors task 1: High-fidelity neutron transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarno, K.; De Almeida, V.; D'Azevedo, E.; De Oliveira, C.; Hamilton, S.

    2006-01-01

    A multi-laboratory, multi-university collaboration has formed to advance the state-of-the-art in high-fidelity, coupled-physics simulation of nuclear energy systems. We are embarking on the first-phase in the development of a new suite of simulation tools dedicated to the advancement of nuclear science and engineering technologies. We seek to develop and demonstrate a new generation of multi-physics simulation tools that will explore the scientific phenomena of tightly coupled physics parameters within nuclear systems, support the design and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors, and provide benchmark quality solutions for code validation. In this paper, we have presented the general scope of the collaborative project and discuss the specific challenges of high-fidelity neutronics for nuclear reactor simulation and the inroads we have made along this path. The high-performance computing neutronics code system utilizes the latest version of SCALE to generate accurate, problem-dependent cross sections, which are used in NEWTRNX - a new 3-D, general-geometry, discrete-ordinates solver based on the Slice-Balance Approach. The Global Nuclear Energy Simulator for Reactors (GNES-R) team is embarking on a long-term simulation development project that encompasses multiple laboratories and universities for the expansion of high-fidelity coupled-physics simulation of nuclear energy systems. (authors)

  1. Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prive, Nikki; Errico, R. M.; Carvalho, D.

    2018-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.

  2. Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

  3. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

  4. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A

    2015-04-21

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

  5. Creation and Global Deployment of a Mobile, Application-Based Cognitive Simulator for Cardiac Surgical Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Zachary E; Ogden, William David; Fann, James I; Burdon, Thomas A; Sheikh, Ahmad Y

    Several modern learning frameworks (eg, cognitive apprenticeship, anchored instruction, and situated cognition) posit the utility of nontraditional methods for effective experiential learning. Thus, development of novel educational tools emphasizing the cognitive framework of operative sequences may be of benefit to surgical trainees. We propose the development and global deployment of an effective, mobile cognitive cardiac surgical simulator. In methods, 16 preclinical medical students were assessed. Overall, 4 separate surgical modules (sternotomy, cannulation, decannulation, and sternal closure) were created utilizing the Touch Surgery (London, UK) platform. Modules were made available to download free of charge for use on mobile devices. Usage data were collected over a 6-month period. Educational efficacy of the modules was evaluated by randomizing a cohort of medical students to either module usage or traditional, reading-based self-study, followed by a multiple-choice learning assessment tool. In results, downloads of the simulator achieved global penetrance, with highest usage in the USA, Brazil, Italy, UK, and India. Overall, 5368 unique users conducted a total of 1971 hours of simulation. Evaluation of the medical student cohort revealed significantly higher assessment scores in those randomized to module use versus traditional reading (75% ± 9% vs 61% ± 7%, respectively; P < 0.05). In conclusion, this study represents the first effort to create a mobile, interactive cognitive simulator for cardiac surgery. Simulators of this type may be effective for the training and assessment of surgical students. We investigated whether an interactive, mobile-computing-based cognitive task simulator for cardiac surgery could be developed, deployed, and validated. Our findings suggest that such simulators may be a useful learning tool. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

    2018-04-01

    This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

  7. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  8. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  9. GYSELA, a full-f global gyrokinetic Semi-Lagrangian code for ITG turbulence simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandgirard, V.; Sarazin, Y.; Garbet, X.; Dif-Pradalier, G.; Ghendrih, Ph.; Crouseilles, N.; Latu, G.; Sonnendruecker, E.; Besse, N.; Bertrand, P.

    2006-01-01

    This work addresses non-linear global gyrokinetic simulations of ion temperature gradient (ITG) driven turbulence with the GYSELA code. The particularity of GYSELA code is to use a fixed grid with a Semi-Lagrangian (SL) scheme and this for the entire distribution function. The 4D non-linear drift-kinetic version of the code already showns the interest of such a SL method which exhibits good properties of energy conservation in non-linear regime as well as an accurate description of fine spatial scales. The code has been upgrated to run 5D simulations of toroidal ITG turbulence. Linear benchmarks and non-linear first results prove that semi-lagrangian codes can be a credible alternative for gyrokinetic simulations

  10. Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

    2018-01-01

    This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

  11. The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

  12. UTILIZATION OF MULTIPLE MEASUREMENTS FOR GLOBAL THREE-DIMENSIONAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, A. H.; Wu, S. T.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Hill, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Magnetic field measurements, line of sight (LOS) and/or vector magnetograms, have been used in a variety of solar physics studies. Currently, the global transverse velocity measurements near the photosphere from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) are available. We have utilized these multiple observational data, for the first time, to present a data-driven global three-dimensional and resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and to investigate the energy transport across the photosphere to the corona. The measurements of the LOS magnetic field and transverse velocity reflect the effects of convective zone dynamics and provide information from the sub-photosphere to the corona. In order to self-consistently include the observables on the lower boundary as the inputs to drive the model, a set of time-dependent boundary conditions is derived by using the method of characteristics. We selected GONG's global transverse velocity measurements of synoptic chart CR2009 near the photosphere and SOLIS full-resolution LOS magnetic field maps of synoptic chart CR2009 on the photosphere to simulate the equilibrium state and compute the energy transport across the photosphere. To show the advantage of using both observed magnetic field and transverse velocity data, we have studied two cases: (1) with the inputs of the LOS magnetic field and transverse velocity measurements, and (2) with the input of the LOS magnetic field and without the input of transverse velocity measurements. For these two cases, the simulation results presented here are a three-dimensional coronal magnetic field configuration, density distributions on the photosphere and at 1.5 solar radii, and the solar wind in the corona. The deduced physical characteristics are the total current helicity and the synthetic emission. By comparing all the physical parameters of case 1 and case 2 and their synthetic emission images with the EIT image, we find that using both the measured magnetic field and the

  13. LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS IN GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF BLACK HOLE ACCRETION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Sean M.; Reynolds, Christopher S.; Coleman Miller, M.; Sorathia, Kareem A.

    2011-01-01

    We have identified the presence of large-scale, low-frequency dynamo cycles in a long-duration, global, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of black hole accretion. Such cycles have previously been seen in local shearing box simulations, but we discuss their evolution over 1500 inner disk orbits of a global π/4 disk wedge spanning two orders of magnitude in radius and seven scale heights in elevation above/below the disk midplane. The observed cycles manifest themselves as oscillations in azimuthal magnetic field occupying a region that extends into a low-density corona several scale heights above the disk. The cycle frequencies are 10-20 times lower than the local orbital frequency, making them potentially interesting sources of low-frequency variability when scaled to real astrophysical systems. Furthermore, power spectra derived from the full time series reveal that the cycles manifest themselves at discrete, narrowband frequencies that often share power across broad radial ranges. We explore possible connections between these simulated cycles and observed low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (LFQPOs) in galactic black hole binary systems, finding that dynamo cycles have the appropriate frequencies and are located in a spatial region associated with X-ray emission in real systems. Derived observational proxies, however, fail to feature peaks with rms amplitudes comparable to LFQPO observations, suggesting that further theoretical work and more sophisticated simulations will be required to form a complete theory of dynamo-driven LFQPOs. Nonetheless, this work clearly illustrates that global MHD dynamos exhibit quasi-periodic behavior on timescales much longer than those derived from test particle considerations.

  14. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  15. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  16. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  17. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelini, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

  18. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  19. Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Model Experiments - ISOGAME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pi, Xiaoqing; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Stephens, Philip; Iijima, Bryron A.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and imaging the Earth's ionosphere as well as understanding its structures, inhomogeneities, and disturbances is a key part of NASA's Heliophysics Directorate science roadmap. This invention provides a design tool for scientific missions focused on the ionosphere. It is a scientifically important and technologically challenging task to assess the impact of a new observation system quantitatively on our capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. This question is often raised whenever a new satellite system is proposed, a new type of data is emerging, or a new modeling technique is developed. The proposed constellation would be part of a new observation system with more low-Earth orbiters tracking more radio occultation signals broadcast by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) than those offered by the current GPS and COSMIC observation system. A simulation system was developed to fulfill this task. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) including first-principles and empirical ionospheric models, a multiple- dipole geomagnetic field model, data assimilation modules, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software.

  20. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  1. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  2. Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

  3. Using probabilistic finite automata to simulate hourly series of global radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mora-Lopez, L. [Universidad de Malaga (Spain). Dpto. Lenguajes y Computacion; Sidrach-de-Cardona, M. [Universidad de Malaga (Spain). Dpto. Fisica Aplicada II

    2003-03-01

    A model to generate synthetic series of hourly exposure of global radiation is proposed. This model has been constructed using a machine learning approach. It is based on the use of a subclass of probabilistic finite automata which can be used for variable-order Markov processes. This model allows us to represent the different relationships and the representative information observed in the hourly series of global radiation; the variable-order Markov process can be used as a natural way to represent different types of days, and to take into account the ''variable memory'' of cloudiness. A method to generate new series of hourly global radiation, which incorporates the randomness observed in recorded series, is also proposed. As input data this method only uses the mean monthly value of the daily solar global radiation. We examine if the recorded and simulated series are similar. It can be concluded that both series have the same statistical properties. (author)

  4. Kinetics programs for simulation of tropospheric photochemistry on the global scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, S.; Kao, C.Y.J.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X.P.

    1993-08-01

    The study of tropospheric kinetics underlies global change because key greenhouse gases are photochemically active. Modeling of tropospheric chemistry on a global scale is essential because some indirect greenhouse gases are short-lived and interact in a non-linear fashion. It is also extremely challenging, however; the global change grid is extensive in both the physical and temporal domains, and critical lower atmospheric species include the organics and their oxidized derivatives, which are numerous. Several types of optimization may be incorporated into kinetics modules to enhance their ability to simulate the complete lower atmospheric gas phase chemical system. (1) The photochemical integrator can be accelerated by avoiding matrix and iterative solutions and by establishing families. Accuracy and mass conservation are sacrificed in the absence of iteration, but atom balancing is restorable post hoc. (2) Chemistry can be arranged upon the massive grid to exploit parallel processing, and solutions to its continuity equations can be automated to permit experimentation with species and reaction lists or family definitions. Costs in programming effort will be incurred in these cases. (3) Complex hydrocarbon decay sequences can be streamlined either through structural lumping methods descended from smog investigations, which require considerable calibration, or by defining surrogates for classes of compounds, with a loss in constituent detail. From among the available options, the most advantageous permutations will vary with the specific nature of any eventual global scale study, and there is likely to be demand for many approaches. Tracer transport codes serve as a foundation upon which tropospheric chemistry packages will be tested. Encroachment of the NO x sphere of influence upon tropical rain forests and the upper free troposphere are two examples of specific problems to which full three-dimensional chemical simulations might be applied

  5. The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watterson, I.G. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale (Australia)

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones, and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM, under rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal distribution of cyclones appears broadly realistic during 1961-1990. By 2071-2100, with 3 K global warming, numbers over 20 deg N to 70 deg N decrease by 6% in winter and 2% annually, with similar results for the south. The average intensity of cyclones, from relative central pressure and other measures, is largely unchanged however. 30-yr extremes of dynamic intensity also show little clear change, including values averaged over continents. Mean rain rates at cyclone centres are typically at least double rates from all days. Rates during cyclones increase by an average 14% in the northern winter under global warming. Rates over adjacent grid squares and during the previous day increase similarly, as do extreme rates. Results from simulations of the higher-resolution (1.8 deg grid) Mark 3 GCM are similar, with widespread increases in rain rates but not in cyclone intensity. The analyses suggest that latent heating during storms increases, as anticipated due to the increased moisture capacity of the warmer atmosphere. However, any role for enhanced heating in storm development in the GCMs is apparently masked by other factors. An exception is a 5% increase in extreme intensity around 55 deg S in Mark 3, despite decreased numbers of lows, a factor assessed using extreme value theory. Further studies with yet higher-resolution models may be needed to examine the potential realism of these results, particularly with regard to extremes at smaller scale.

  6. Assessment of SMAP soil moisture for global simulation of gross primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liming; Chen, Jing M.; Liu, Jane; Bélair, Stéphane; Luo, Xiangzhong

    2017-07-01

    In this study, high-quality soil moisture data derived from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite measurements are evaluated from a perspective of improving the estimation of the global gross primary production (GPP) using a process-based ecosystem model, namely, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The SMAP soil moisture data are assimilated into BEPS using an ensemble Kalman filter. The correlation coefficient (r) between simulated GPP from the sunlit leaves and Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measured by Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 is used as an indicator to evaluate the performance of the GPP simulation. Areas with SMAP data in low quality (i.e., forests), or with SIF in low magnitude (e.g., deserts), or both are excluded from the analysis. With the assimilated SMAP data, the r value is enhanced for Africa, Asia, and North America by 0.016, 0.013, and 0.013, respectively (p r appears in single-cropping agricultural land where the irrigation is not considered in the model but well captured by SMAP (e.g., 0.09 in North America, p < 0.05). With the assimilation of SMAP, areas with weak model performances are identified in double or triple cropping cropland (e.g., part of North China Plain) and/or mountainous area (e.g., Spain and Turkey). The correlation coefficient is enhanced by 0.01 in global average for shrub, grass, and cropland. This enhancement is small and insignificant because nonwater-stressed areas are included.

  7. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  8. Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

  9. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH

  10. Fully-kinetic Ion Simulation of Global Electrostatic Turbulent Transport in C-2U

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulton, Daniel; Lau, Calvin; Bao, Jian; Lin, Zhihong; Tajima, Toshiki; TAE Team

    2017-10-01

    Understanding the nature of particle and energy transport in field-reversed configuration (FRC) plasmas is a crucial step towards an FRC-based fusion reactor. The C-2U device at Tri Alpha Energy (TAE) achieved macroscopically stable plasmas and electron energy confinement time which scaled favorably with electron temperature. This success led to experimental and theoretical investigation of turbulence in C-2U, including gyrokinetic ion simulations with the Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC). A primary objective of TAE's new C-2W device is to explore transport scaling in an extended parameter regime. In concert with the C-2W experimental campaign, numerical efforts have also been extended in A New Code (ANC) to use fully-kinetic (FK) ions and a Vlasov-Poisson field solver. Global FK ion simulations are presented. Future code development is also discussed.

  11. Experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment effects on microbial litter decomposers in a marsh

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flury, Sabine; Gessner, Mark

    2011-01-01

    obtained by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) indicated that simulated global warming induced a shift in bacterial community structure. In addition, warming reduced fungal biomass, whereas bacterial biomass was unaffected. The mesh size of the litter bags and sampling date also had......Atmospheric warming and increased nitrogen deposition can lead to changes of microbial communities with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes. We used an enclosure facility in a freshwater marsh to assess the effects on microbes associated with decomposing plant litter under conditions...... of simulated climate warming and pulsed nitrogen supply. Standard batches of litter were placed in coarse-mesh and fine-mesh bags and submerged in a series of heated, nitrogen-enriched, and control enclosures. They were retrieved later and analyzed for a range of microbial parameters. Fingerprinting profiles...

  12. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  13. DOUBLE DYNAMO SIGNATURES IN A GLOBAL MHD SIMULATION AND MEAN-FIELD DYNAMOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaudoin, Patrice; Simard, Corinne; Cossette, Jean-François; Charbonneau, Paul [Département de Physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3J7 (Canada)

    2016-08-01

    The 11 year solar activity cycle is the most prominent periodic manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) large-scale dynamo operating in the solar interior, yet longer and shorter (quasi-) periodicities are also present. The so-called “quasi-biennial” signal appearing in many proxies of solar activity has been gaining increasing attention since its detection in p -mode frequency shifts, which suggests a subphotospheric origin. A number of candidate mechanisms have been proposed, including beating between co-existing global dynamo modes, dual dynamos operating in spatially separated regions of the solar interior, and Rossby waves driving short-period oscillations in the large-scale solar magnetic field produced by the 11 year activity cycle. In this article, we analyze a global MHD simulation of solar convection producing regular large-scale magnetic cycles, and detect and characterize shorter periodicities developing therein. By constructing kinematic mean-field α {sup 2}Ω dynamo models incorporating the turbulent electromotive force (emf) extracted from that same simulation, we find that dual-dynamo behavior materializes in fairly wide regions of the model’s parameters space. This suggests that the origin of the similar behavior detected in the MHD simulation lies with the joint complexity of the turbulent emf and differential rotation profile, rather that with dynamical interactions such as those mediated by Rossby waves. Analysis of the simulation also reveals that the dual dynamo operating therein leaves a double-period signature in the temperature field, consistent with a dual-period helioseismic signature. Order-of-magnitude estimates for the magnitude of the expected frequency shifts are commensurate with helioseismic measurements. Taken together, our results support the hypothesis that the solar quasi-biennial oscillations are associated with a secondary dynamo process operating in the outer reaches of the solar convection zone.

  14. Model-data fusion across ecosystems: from multisite optimizations to global simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppel, S.; Peylin, P.; Maignan, F.; Chevallier, F.; Kiely, G.; Montagnani, L.; Cescatti, A.

    2014-11-01

    This study uses a variational data assimilation framework to simultaneously constrain a global ecosystem model with eddy covariance measurements of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from a large number of sites grouped in seven plant functional types (PFTs). It is an attempt to bridge the gap between the numerous site-specific parameter optimization works found in the literature and the generic parameterization used by most land surface models within each PFT. The present multisite approach allows deriving PFT-generic sets of optimized parameters enhancing the agreement between measured and simulated fluxes at most of the sites considered, with performances often comparable to those of the corresponding site-specific optimizations. Besides reducing the PFT-averaged model-data root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and the associated daily output uncertainty, the optimization improves the simulated CO2 balance at tropical and temperate forests sites. The major site-level NEE adjustments at the seasonal scale are reduced amplitude in C3 grasslands and boreal forests, increased seasonality in temperate evergreen forests, and better model-data phasing in temperate deciduous broadleaf forests. Conversely, the poorer performances in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests points to deficiencies regarding the modelling of phenology and soil water stress for this PFT. An evaluation with data-oriented estimates of photosynthesis (GPP - gross primary productivity) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) rates indicates distinctively improved simulations of both gross fluxes. The multisite parameter sets are then tested against CO2 concentrations measured at 53 locations around the globe, showing significant adjustments of the modelled seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentration, whose relevance seems PFT-dependent, along with an improved interannual variability. Lastly, a global-scale evaluation with remote sensing NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index

  15. MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION DYNAMICS FROM 3D MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF SOLAR CONVECTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passos, Dário; Charbonneau, Paul; Miesch, Mark

    2015-01-01

    The form of solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. However, a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work, we use results from three-dimensional global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results, we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone at mid-latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 R ⊙ ). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behavior. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation which involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations

  16. Estimating a planetary magnetic field with time-dependent global MHD simulations using an adjoint approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Nabert

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of the solar wind with a planetary magnetic field causes electrical currents that modify the magnetic field distribution around the planet. We present an approach to estimating the planetary magnetic field from in situ spacecraft data using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulation approach. The method is developed with respect to the upcoming BepiColombo mission to planet Mercury aimed at determining the planet's magnetic field and its interior electrical conductivity distribution. In contrast to the widely used empirical models, global MHD simulations allow the calculation of the strongly time-dependent interaction process of the solar wind with the planet. As a first approach, we use a simple MHD simulation code that includes time-dependent solar wind and magnetic field parameters. The planetary parameters are estimated by minimizing the misfit of spacecraft data and simulation results with a gradient-based optimization. As the calculation of gradients with respect to many parameters is usually very time-consuming, we investigate the application of an adjoint MHD model. This adjoint MHD model is generated by an automatic differentiation tool to compute the gradients efficiently. The computational cost for determining the gradient with an adjoint approach is nearly independent of the number of parameters. Our method is validated by application to THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms magnetosheath data to estimate Earth's dipole moment.

  17. Fast simulation of reconstructed phylogenies under global time-dependent birth-death processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höhna, Sebastian

    2013-06-01

    Diversification rates and patterns may be inferred from reconstructed phylogenies. Both the time-dependent and the diversity-dependent birth-death process can produce the same observed patterns of diversity over time. To develop and test new models describing the macro-evolutionary process of diversification, generic and fast algorithms to simulate under these models are necessary. Simulations are not only important for testing and developing models but play an influential role in the assessment of model fit. In the present article, I consider as the model a global time-dependent birth-death process where each species has the same rates but rates may vary over time. For this model, I derive the likelihood of the speciation times from a reconstructed phylogenetic tree and show that each speciation event is independent and identically distributed. This fact can be used to simulate efficiently reconstructed phylogenetic trees when conditioning on the number of species, the time of the process or both. I show the usability of the simulation by approximating the posterior predictive distribution of a birth-death process with decreasing diversification rates applied on a published bird phylogeny (family Cettiidae). The methods described in this manuscript are implemented in the R package TESS, available from the repository CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TESS/). Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  18. Global gyrokinetic simulations of intrinsic rotation in ASDEX Upgrade Ohmic L-mode plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornsby, W. A.; Angioni, C.; Lu, Z. X.; Fable, E.; Erofeev, I.; McDermott, R.; Medvedeva, A.; Lebschy, A.; Peeters, A. G.; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

    2018-05-01

    Non-linear, radially global, turbulence simulations of ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) plasmas are performed and the nonlinear generated intrinsic flow shows agreement with the intrinsic flow gradients measured in the core of Ohmic L-mode plasmas at nominal parameters. Simulations utilising the kinetic electron model show hollow intrinsic flow profiles as seen in a predominant number of experiments performed at similar plasma parameters. In addition, significantly larger flow gradients are seen than in a previous flux-tube analysis (Hornsby et al 2017 Nucl. Fusion 57 046008). Adiabatic electron model simulations can show a flow profile with opposing sign in the gradient with respect to a kinetic electron simulation, implying a reversal in the sign of the residual stress due to kinetic electrons. The shaping of the intrinsic flow is strongly determined by the density gradient profile. The sensitivity of the residual stress to variations in density profile curvature is calculated and seen to be significantly stronger than to neoclassical flows (Hornsby et al 2017 Nucl. Fusion 57 046008). This variation is strong enough on its own to explain the large variations in the intrinsic flow gradients seen in some AUG experiments. Analysis of the symmetry breaking properties of the turbulence shows that profile shearing is the dominant mechanism in producing a finite parallel wave-number, with turbulence gradient effects contributing a smaller portion of the parallel wave-vector.

  19. Description and validation of the Simple, Efficient, Dynamic, Global, Ecological Simulator (SEDGES v.1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiewonsky, Pablo; Elison Timm, Oliver

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a simple dynamic global vegetation model whose primary intended use is auxiliary to the land-atmosphere coupling scheme of a climate model, particularly one of intermediate complexity. The model simulates and provides important ecological-only variables but also some hydrological and surface energy variables that are typically either simulated by land surface schemes or else used as boundary data input for these schemes. The model formulations and their derivations are presented here, in detail. The model includes some realistic and useful features for its level of complexity, including a photosynthetic dependency on light, full coupling of photosynthesis and transpiration through an interactive canopy resistance, and a soil organic carbon dependence for bare-soil albedo. We evaluate the model's performance by running it as part of a simple land surface scheme that is driven by reanalysis data. The evaluation against observational data includes net primary productivity, leaf area index, surface albedo, and diagnosed variables relevant for the closure of the hydrological cycle. In this setup, we find that the model gives an adequate to good simulation of basic large-scale ecological and hydrological variables. Of the variables analyzed in this paper, gross primary productivity is particularly well simulated. The results also reveal the current limitations of the model. The most significant deficiency is the excessive simulation of evapotranspiration in mid- to high northern latitudes during their winter to spring transition. The model has a relative advantage in situations that require some combination of computational efficiency, model transparency and tractability, and the simulation of the large-scale vegetation and land surface characteristics under non-present-day conditions.

  20. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  1. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  2. A global MHD simulation of an event with a quasi-steady northward IMF component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Merkin

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We show results of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM global MHD simulations of an event previously examined using Iridium spacecraft observations as well as DMSP and IMAGE FUV data. The event is chosen for the steady northward IMF sustained over a three-hour period during 16 July 2000. The Iridium observations showed very weak or absent Region 2 currents in the ionosphere, which makes the event favorable for global MHD modeling. Here we are interested in examining the model's performace during weak magnetospheric forcing, in particular, its ability to reproduce gross signatures of the ionospheric currents and convection pattern and energy deposition in the ionosphere both due to the Poynting flux and particle precipitation. We compare the ionospheric field-aligned current and electric potential patterns with those recovered from Iridium and DMSP observations, respectively. In addition, DMSP magnetometer data are used for comparisons of ionospheric magnetic perturbations. The electromagnetic energy flux is compared with Iridium-inferred values, while IMAGE FUV observations are utilized to verify the simulated particle energy flux.

  3. Influence of the solar wind and IMF on Jupiter's magnetosphere: Results from global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkango, Y.; Jia, X.; Toth, G.; Hansen, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Due to its large size, rapid rotation and presence of substantial internal plasma sources, Jupiter's magnetosphere is fundamentally different from that of the Earth. How and to what extent do the external factors, such as the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), influence the internally-driven magnetosphere is an open question. In this work, we solve the 3D semi-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations using a well-established code, BATSRUS, to model the Jovian magnetosphere and study its interaction with the solar wind. Our global model adopts a non-uniform mesh covering the region from 200 RJ upstream to 1800 RJ downstream with the inner boundary placed at a radial distance of 2.5 RJ. The Io plasma torus centered around 6 RJ is generated in our model through appropriate mass-loading terms added to the set of MHD equations. We perform systematic numerical experiments in which we vary the upstream solar wind properties to investigate the impact of solar wind events, such as interplanetary shock and IMF rotation, on the global magnetosphere. From our simulations, we extract the location of the magnetopause boundary, the bow shock and the open-closed field line boundary (OCB), and determine their dependence on the solar wind properties and the IMF orientation. For validation, we compare our simulation results, such as density, temperature and magnetic field, to published empirical models based on in-situ measurements.

  4. Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

    2013-04-01

    Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

  5. Global Qualitative Flow-Path Modeling for Local State Determination in Simulation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T. (Inventor); Fleming, Land D. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    For qualitative modeling and analysis, a general qualitative abstraction of power transmission variables (flow and effort) for elements of flow paths includes information on resistance, net flow, permissible directions of flow, and qualitative potential is discussed. Each type of component model has flow-related variables and an associated internal flow map, connected into an overall flow network of the system. For storage devices, the implicit power transfer to the environment is represented by "virtual" circuits that include an environmental junction. A heterogeneous aggregation method simplifies the path structure. A method determines global flow-path changes during dynamic simulation and analysis, and identifies corresponding local flow state changes that are effects of global configuration changes. Flow-path determination is triggered by any change in a flow-related device variable in a simulation or analysis. Components (path elements) that may be affected are identified, and flow-related attributes favoring flow in the two possible directions are collected for each of them. Next, flow-related attributes are determined for each affected path element, based on possibly conflicting indications of flow direction. Spurious qualitative ambiguities are minimized by using relative magnitudes and permissible directions of flow, and by favoring flow sources over effort sources when comparing flow tendencies. The results are output to local flow states of affected components.

  6. Directional and Spectral Irradiance in Ocean Models: Effects on Simulated Global Phytoplankton, Nutrients, and Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of including directional and spectral light in simulations of ocean radiative transfer was investigated using a coupled biogeochemical-circulation-radiative model of the global oceans. The effort focused on phytoplankton abundances, nutrient concentrations and vertically-integrated net primary production. The importance was approached by sequentially removing directional (i.e., direct vs. diffuse) and spectral irradiance and comparing results of the above variables to a fully directionally and spectrally-resolved model. In each case the total irradiance was kept constant; it was only the pathways and spectral nature that were changed. Assuming all irradiance was diffuse had negligible effect on global ocean primary production. Global nitrate and total chlorophyll concentrations declined by about 20% each. The largest changes occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics rather than the high latitudes, where most of the irradiance is already diffuse. Disregarding spectral irradiance had effects that depended upon the choice of attenuation wavelength. The wavelength closest to the spectrally-resolved model, 500 nm, produced lower nitrate (19%) and chlorophyll (8%) and higher primary production (2%) than the spectral model. Phytoplankton relative abundances were very sensitive to the choice of non-spectral wavelength transmittance. The combined effects of neglecting both directional and spectral irradiance exacerbated the differences, despite using attenuation at 500 nm. Global nitrate decreased 33% and chlorophyll decreased 24%. Changes in phytoplankton community structure were considerable, representing a change from chlorophytes to cyanobacteria and coccolithophores. This suggested a shift in community function, from light-limitation to nutrient limitation: lower demands for nutrients from cyanobacteria and coccolithophores favored them over the more nutrient-demanding chlorophytes. Although diatoms have the highest nutrient demands in the model, their

  7. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  8. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  9. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  10. Experimental outgassing of toxic chemicals to simulate the characteristics of hazards tainting globally shipped products.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lygia Therese Budnik

    Full Text Available Ambient monitoring analyses may identify potential new public health hazards such as residual levels of fumigants and industrial chemicals off gassing from products and goods shipped globally. We analyzed container air with gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (TD-2D-GC-MS/FPD and assessed whether the concentration of the volatiles benzene and 1,2-dichloroethane exceeded recommended exposure limits (REL. Products were taken from transport containers and analyzed for outgassing of volatiles. Furthermore, experimental outgassing was performed on packaging materials and textiles, to simulate the hazards tainting from globally shipped goods. The mean amounts of benzene in analyzed container air were 698-fold higher, and those of ethylene dichloride were 4.5-fold higher than the corresponding REL. More than 90% of all containers struck with toluene residues higher than its REL. For 1,2-dichloroethane 53% of containers, transporting shoes exceeded the REL. In standardized experimental fumigation of various products, outgassing of 1,2-dichloroethane under controlled laboratory conditions took up to several months. Globally produced transported products tainted with toxic industrial chemicals may contribute to the mixture of volatiles in indoor air as they are likely to emit for a long period. These results need to be taken into account for further evaluation of safety standards applying to workers and consumers.

  11. A Global Terrestrial Reference Frame from simulated VLBI and SLR data in view of GGOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Susanne; König, Rolf; Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Nilsson, Tobias; Heinkelmann, Robert; Flechtner, Frank; Schuh, Harald

    2017-07-01

    In this study, we assess the impact of two combination strategies, namely local ties (LT) and global ties (GT), on the datum realization of Global Terrestrial Reference Frames in view of the Global Geodetic Observing System requiring 1 mm-accuracy. Simulated Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data over a 7 year time span was used. The LT results show that the geodetic datum can be best transferred if the precision of the LT is at least 1 mm. Investigating different numbers of LT, the lack of co-located sites on the southern hemisphere is evidenced by differences of 9 mm in translation and rotation compared to the solution using all available LT. For the GT, the combination applying all Earth rotation parameters (ERP), such as pole coordinates and UT1-UTC, indicates that the rotation around the Z axis cannot be adequately transferred from VLBI to SLR within the combination. Applying exclusively the pole coordinates as GT, we show that the datum can be transferred with mm-accuracy within the combination. Furthermore, adding artificial stations in Tahiti and Nigeria to the current VLBI network results in an improvement in station positions by 13 and 12%, respectively, and in ERP by 17 and 11%, respectively. Extending to every day VLBI observations leads to 65% better ERP estimates compared to usual twice-weekly VLBI observations.

  12. The Global Nuclear Futures Model: A Dynamic Simulation Tool for Energy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bixler, N.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Nuclear Futures Model (GNFM) is a dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global nuclear materials management, and nuclear proliferation risk. It links nuclear energy and other energy shares dynamically to greenhouse gas emissions and twelve other measures of environmental impact. It presents historical data from 1990 to 2000 and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. More specifically, it contains separate modules for energy, the nuclear fuel cycle front end, the nuclear fuel cycle back end, defense nuclear materials, environmental impacts, and measures of the potential for nuclear proliferation. It is globally integrated but also breaks out five regions of the world so that environmental impacts and nuclear proliferation concerns can be evaluated on a regional basis. The five regions are the United States of America (USA), The Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the OECD nations excluding the USA, and the rest of the world (ROW). (author)

  13. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  14. S-World: A high resolution global soil database for simulation modelling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoorvogel, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    There is an increasing call for high resolution soil information at the global level. A good example for such a call is the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison carried out within AgMIP. While local studies can make use of surveying techniques to collect additional techniques this is practically impossible at the global level. It is therefore important to rely on legacy data like the Harmonized World Soil Database. Several efforts do exist that aim at the development of global gridded soil property databases. These estimates of the variation of soil properties can be used to assess e.g., global soil carbon stocks. However, they do not allow for simulation runs with e.g., crop growth simulation models as these models require a description of the entire pedon rather than a few soil properties. This study provides the required quantitative description of pedons at a 1 km resolution for simulation modelling. It uses the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) for the spatial distribution of soil types, the ISRIC-WISE soil profile database to derive information on soil properties per soil type, and a range of co-variables on topography, climate, and land cover to further disaggregate the available data. The methodology aims to take stock of these available data. The soil database is developed in five main steps. Step 1: All 148 soil types are ordered on the basis of their expected topographic position using e.g., drainage, salinization, and pedogenesis. Using the topographic ordering and combining the HWSD with a digital elevation model allows for the spatial disaggregation of the composite soil units. This results in a new soil map with homogeneous soil units. Step 2: The ranges of major soil properties for the topsoil and subsoil of each of the 148 soil types are derived from the ISRIC-WISE soil profile database. Step 3: A model of soil formation is developed that focuses on the basic conceptual question where we are within the range of a particular soil property

  15. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

    2016-02-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

  16. Modeling extreme "Carrington-type" space weather events using three-dimensional global MHD simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Glocer, Alex

    2014-06-01

    There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al. (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst˜=-1600 nT.

  17. Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-12-01

    The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

  18. Description and evaluation of GMXe: a new aerosol submodel for global simulations (v1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Pringle

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new aerosol microphysics and gas aerosol partitioning submodel (Global Modal-aerosol eXtension, GMXe implemented within the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC, version 1.8. The submodel is computationally efficient and is suitable for medium to long term simulations with global and regional models. The aerosol size distribution is treated using 7 log-normal modes and has the same microphysical core as the M7 submodel (Vignati et al., 2004.

    The main developments in this work are: (i the extension of the aerosol emission routines and the M7 microphysics, so that an increased (and variable number of aerosol species can be treated (new species include sodium and chloride, and potentially magnesium, calcium, and potassium, (ii the coupling of the aerosol microphysics to a choice of treatments of gas/aerosol partitioning to allow the treatment of semi-volatile aerosol, and, (iii the implementation and evaluation of the developed submodel within the EMAC model of atmospheric chemistry.

    Simulated concentrations of black carbon, particulate organic matter, dust, sea spray, sulfate and ammonium aerosol are shown to be in good agreement with observations (for all species at least 40% of modeled values are within a factor of 2 of the observations. The distribution of nitrate aerosol is compared to observations in both clean and polluted regions. Concentrations in polluted continental regions are simulated quite well, but there is a general tendency to overestimate nitrate, particularly in coastal regions (geometric mean of modelled values/geometric mean of observed data ≈2. In all regions considered more than 40% of nitrate concentrations are within a factor of two of the observations. Marine nitrate concentrations are well captured with 96% of modeled values within a factor of 2 of the observations.

  19. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  20. A simulation of orientation dependent, global changes in camera sensitivity in ECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieszk, J.A.; Hawman, E.G.; Malmin, R.E.

    1984-01-01

    ECT promises the abilities to: 1) observe radioisotope distributions in a patient without the summation of overlying activity to reduce contrast, and 2) measure quantitatively these distributions to further and more accurately assess organ function. Ideally, camera-based ECT systems should have a performance that is independent of camera orientation or gantry angle. This study is concerned with ECT quantitation errors that can arise from angle-dependent variations of camera sensitivity. Using simulated phantoms representative of heart and liver sections, the effects of sensitivity changes on reconstructed images were assessed both visually and quantitatively based on ROI sums. The sinogram for each test image was simulated with 128 linear digitization and 180 angular views. The global orientation-dependent sensitivity was modelled by applying an angular sensitivity dependence to the sinograms of the test images. Four sensitivity variations were studied. Amplitudes of 0% (as a reference), 5%, 10%, and 25% with a cosθ dependence were studied as well as a cos2θ dependence with a 5% amplitude. Simulations were done with and without Poisson noise to: 1) determine trends in the quantitative effects as a function of the magnitude of the variation, and 2) to see how these effects are manifested in studies having statistics comparable to clinical cases. For the most realistic sensitivity variation (cosθ, 5% ampl.), the ROIs chosen in the present work indicated changes of <0.5% in the noiseless case and <5% for the case with Poisson noise. The effects of statistics appear to dominate any effects due to global, sinusoidal, orientation-dependent sensitivity changes in the cases studied

  1. The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lee

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interaction effects are a major source of uncertainty in climate models so it is important to quantify the sources of uncertainty and thereby direct research efforts. However, the computational expense of global aerosol models has prevented a full statistical analysis of their outputs. Here we perform a variance-based analysis of a global 3-D aerosol microphysics model to quantify the magnitude and leading causes of parametric uncertainty in model-estimated present-day concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. Twenty-eight model parameters covering essentially all important aerosol processes, emissions and representation of aerosol size distributions were defined based on expert elicitation. An uncertainty analysis was then performed based on a Monte Carlo-type sampling of an emulator built for each model grid cell. The standard deviation around the mean CCN varies globally between about ±30% over some marine regions to ±40–100% over most land areas and high latitudes, implying that aerosol processes and emissions are likely to be a significant source of uncertainty in model simulations of aerosol–cloud effects on climate. Among the most important contributors to CCN uncertainty are the sizes of emitted primary particles, including carbonaceous combustion particles from wildfires, biomass burning and fossil fuel use, as well as sulfate particles formed on sub-grid scales. Emissions of carbonaceous combustion particles affect CCN uncertainty more than sulfur emissions. Aerosol emission-related parameters dominate the uncertainty close to sources, while uncertainty in aerosol microphysical processes becomes increasingly important in remote regions, being dominated by deposition and aerosol sulfate formation during cloud-processing. The results lead to several recommendations for research that would result in improved modelling of cloud–active aerosol on a global scale.

  2. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  3. Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Abe

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been substantially retreating since the 1980s, particularly in September, under simulated global warming conditions. The simulated sea ice reduction is consistent with satellite observations. On the other hand, Arctic cloud cover has been increasing in October, with about a 1-month lag behind the sea ice reduction. The delayed response leads to extensive sea ice reductions because the heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying open ocean into the atmosphere are enhanced. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric part of MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increases in cloud cover. Arctic cloud cover increases primarily in the lower troposphere, but it decreases in the near-surface layers just above the ocean; predominant temperature rises in these near-surface layers cause drying (i.e., decreases in relative humidity, despite increasing moisture flux. Cloud radiative forcing due to increases in cloud cover in autumn brings an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR by approximately 40–60 % compared to changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may bring further sea ice retreat and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

  4. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  5. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  6. The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol: simulations for year 2000 emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Righi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry global model with the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications to quantify the impact of transport emissions (land transport, shipping and aviation on the global aerosol. We consider a present-day (2000 scenario according to the CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 emission data set developed in support of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The model takes into account particle mass and number emissions: The latter are derived from mass emissions under different assumptions on the size distribution of particles emitted by the three transport sectors. Additional sensitivity experiments are performed to quantify the effects of the uncertainties behind such assumptions. The model simulations show that the impact of the transport sectors closely matches the emission patterns. Land transport is the most important source of black carbon (BC pollution in the USA, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, contributing up to 60–70% of the total surface-level BC concentration in these regions. Shipping contributes about 40–60% of the total aerosol sulfate surface-level concentration along the most-traveled routes of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans, with a significant impact (~ 10–20% along the coastlines. Aviation mostly affects aerosol number, contributing about 30–40% of the particle number concentration in the northern midlatitudes' upper troposphere (7–12 km, although significant effects are also simulated at the ground, due to the emissions from landing and take-off cycles. The transport-induced perturbations to the particle number concentrations are very sensitive to the assumptions on the size distribution of emitted particles, with the largest uncertainties (about one order of magnitude obtained for the land transport sector. The simulated climate impacts, due to

  7. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  8. Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

    Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

  9. Minimizing the wintertime low bias of Northern Hemisphere carbon monoxide in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Olaf; Schultz, Martin G.; Bouarar, Idir; Clark, Hannah; Huijnen, Vincent; Gaudel, Audrey; George, Maya; Clerbaux, Cathy

    2015-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) is a product of incomplete combustion and is also produced from oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the atmosphere. It is of interest as an indirect greenhouse gas and an air pollutant causing health effects and is thus subject to emission restrictions. CO acts as a major sink for the OH radical and as a precursor for tropospheric ozone and affects the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere as well as regional air quality. Despite the developments in the global modelling of chemistry and of the parameterization of the physical processes, CO concentrations remain underestimated during NH winter by most state-of-the-art chemical transport models. The resulting model bias can in principle originate from either an underestimation of CO sources or an overestimation of its sinks. We address both the role of sources and sinks with a series of MOZART chemistry transport model sensitivity simulations for the year 2008 and compare our results to observational data from ground-based stations, satellite observations, and from MOZAIC tropospheric profile measurements on passenger aircraft. Our base case simulation using the MACCity emission inventory (Granier et al. 2011) underestimates the near-surface Northern Hemispheric CO mixing ratios by more than 20 ppb from December to April with a maximal bias of 40 ppb in January. The bias is strongest for the European region (up to 75 ppb in January). From our sensitivity studies the mismatch between observed and modelled atmospheric CO concentrations can be explained by a combination of the following emission inventory shortcuts: (i) missing anthropogenic wintertime CO emissions from traffic or other combustion processes, (ii) missing anthropogenic VOC emissions, (iii) an exaggerated downward trend in the RCP8.5 scenario underlying the MACCity inventory, (iv) a lack of knowledge about the seasonality of emissions. Deficiencies in the parameterization of the dry deposition velocities can also lead to

  10. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  11. Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

  12. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  13. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delworth, T.L.; Broccoli, A.J.; Rosati, A.; Stouffer, R.J.; Balaji, V.; Beesley, J.A.; Cooke, W.F.; Dixon, K.W.; Dunne, J.; Dunne, K.A.; Durachta, J.W.; Findell, K.L.; Ginoux, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Gudgel, R.; Harrison, M.J.; Held, I.M.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Kushner, P.J.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, S.-J.; Lu, J.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Spelman, M.J.; Stern, W.F.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Wyman, B.; Zeng, F.; Zhang, R.

    2006-01-01

    The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and

  14. Solar Simulated Ultraviolet Radiation Induces Global Histone Hypoacetylation in Human Keratinocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoru; Kluz, Thomas; Gesumaria, Lisa; Matsui, Mary S; Costa, Max; Sun, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) from sunlight is the primary effector of skin DNA damage. Chromatin remodeling and histone post-translational modification (PTM) are critical factors in repairing DNA damage and maintaining genomic integrity, however, the dynamic changes of histone marks in response to solar UVR are not well characterized. Here we report global changes in histone PTMs induced by solar simulated UVR (ssUVR). A decrease in lysine acetylation of histones H3 and H4, particularly at positions of H3 lysine 9, lysine 56, H4 lysine 5, and lysine 16, was found in human keratinocytes exposed to ssUVR. These acetylation changes were highly associated with ssUVR in a dose-dependent and time-specific manner. Interestingly, H4K16ac, a mark that is crucial for higher order chromatin structure, exhibited a persistent reduction by ssUVR that was transmitted through multiple cell divisions. In addition, the enzymatic activities of histone acetyltransferases were significantly reduced in irradiated cells, which may account for decreased global acetylation. Moreover, depletion of histone deacetylase SIRT1 in keratinocytes rescued ssUVR-induced H4K16 hypoacetylation. These results indicate that ssUVR affects both HDAC and HAT activities, leading to reduced histone acetylation.

  15. GLOBAL GENERAL RELATIVISTIC MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF BLACK HOLE ACCRETION FLOWS: A CONVERGENCE STUDY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiokawa, Hotaka; Dolence, Joshua C.; Gammie, Charles F.; Noble, Scott C.

    2012-01-01

    Global, general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of non-radiative, magnetized disks are widely used to model accreting black holes. We have performed a convergence study of GRMHD models computed with HARM3D. The models span a factor of four in linear resolution, from 96 × 96 × 64 to 384 × 384 × 256. We consider three diagnostics of convergence: (1) dimensionless shell-averaged quantities such as plasma β; (2) the azimuthal correlation length of fluid variables; and (3) synthetic spectra of the source including synchrotron emission, absorption, and Compton scattering. Shell-averaged temperature is, except for the lowest resolution run, nearly independent of resolution; shell-averaged plasma β decreases steadily with resolution but shows signs of convergence. The azimuthal correlation lengths of density, internal energy, and temperature decrease steadily with resolution but show signs of convergence. In contrast, the azimuthal correlation length of magnetic field decreases nearly linearly with grid size. We argue by analogy with local models, however, that convergence should be achieved with another factor of two in resolution. Synthetic spectra are, except for the lowest resolution run, nearly independent of resolution. The convergence behavior is consistent with that of higher physical resolution local model ( s hearing box ) calculations and with the recent non-relativistic global convergence studies of Hawley et al.

  16. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Moridis, G.J.; Cameron-Smith, P.J.

    2011-01-02

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH{sub 4} distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  17. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Scott; Maltrud, Mathew; Reagan, Matthew; Moridis, George; Cameron-Smith, Philip

    2011-03-01

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH4 distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  18. The global warming game - simulations of a CO2 reduction agreement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, S.; Kverndokk, S.

    1992-06-01

    The paper analyses incentives for and the benefits of a possible international cooperation to reduce CO-2-emissions. The negotiations are modeled as a (static) reciprocal-externality-game in CO 2 -emissions between five world regions. CO 2 -emissions affect the players in two ways: First, each country's income depends (via energy inputs) on the amount of CO 2 emitted. On the other hand, emissions may cause future damage due to climate change. Without cooperation, each player maximizes its net benefits in setting marginal income equal to its marginal damage cost (Nash equilibrium). Under full cooperation marginal income equals the sum of the marginal damages (social optimum). The paper presents simulations of these two equilibria. Compared to the situation where no attention is paid to the greenhouse effect (the business as usual scenario), emission reductions under the Nash equilibrium can be interpreted as incentives for unilateral actions. According to the simulation results, this can only be expected from OECD countries. The results also imply that a socially optimal treaty, while clearly beneficial for the world in its entirety, may only be achieved if side payments are offered to at least China and the former Soviet Union, and probably the USA. The optimal global emission reductions in this study are on average lower than the reductions recommended by international conferences. 34 refs., 2 figs., 9 tabs

  19. Toward Improving the Representation of Convection and Cloud-Radiation Interaction for Global Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X.; Song, X.; Deng, L.; Park, S.; Liang, X.; Zhang, G. J.

    2006-05-01

    Despite the significant progress made in developing general circulation models (GCMs), major uncertainties related to the parameterization of convection, cloud and radiation processes still remain. The current GCM credibility of seasonal-interannual climate predictions or climate change projections is limited. In particular, the following long-standing biases, common to most GCMs, need to be reduced: 1) over-prediction of high-level cloud amounts although GCMs realistically simulating the global radiation budget; 2) general failure to reproduce the seasonal variation and migration of the ITCZ precipitation; 3) incomplete representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO); and 4) false production of an excessive cold tone of sea surface temperature across the Pacific basin and a double ITCZ structure in precipitation when the atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled. The development of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) provides a unique opportunity to address issues aimed to reduce these biases. The statistical analysis of CRM simulations together with the theoretical consideration of subgrid-scale processes will enable us to develop physically-based parameterization of convection, clouds, radiation and their interactions.

  20. The global warming game - simulations of a CO[sub 2] reduction agreement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fankhauser, S [Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, London (United Kingdom); Kverndokk, S [Stiftelsen for Samfunns- og Naeringslivsforskning, Oslo (Norway)

    1992-06-01

    The paper analyses incentives for and the benefits of a possible international cooperation to reduce CO-2-emissions. The negotiations are modeled as a (static) reciprocal-externality-game in CO[sub 2]-emissions between five world regions. CO[sub 2]-emissions affect the players in two ways: First, each country's income depends (via energy inputs) on the amount of CO[sub 2] emitted. On the other hand, emissions may cause future damage due to climate change. Without cooperation, each player maximizes its net benefits in setting marginal income equal to its marginal damage cost (Nash equilibrium). Under full cooperation marginal income equals the sum of the marginal damages (social optimum). The paper presents simulations of these two equilibria. Compared to the situation where no attention is paid to the greenhouse effect (the business as usual scenario), emission reductions under the Nash equilibrium can be interpreted as incentives for unilateral actions. According to the simulation results, this can only be expected from OECD countries. The results also imply that a socially optimal treaty, while clearly beneficial for the world in its entirety, may only be achieved if side payments are offered to at least China and the former Soviet Union, and probably the USA. The optimal global emission reductions in this study are on average lower than the reductions recommended by international conferences. 34 refs., 2 figs., 9 tabs.

  1. Global Simulations of the Asymmetry in Forming Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability at Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paral, J.; Rankin, R.

    2013-12-01

    MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) is the first spacecraft to provide data from the orbit of Mercury. After the probe's insertion into the orbit on March 2011, the in situ measurements revealed a dawn-dusk asymmetry in the observations of Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability. This instability forms at the magnetopause boundary due to the high shear of the plasma flows. The asymmetry in the observations is unexpected and largely unexplained, although it has been speculated that finite ion gyroradius effect plays an important role. The large gyroradius implies that kinetic effects are important and thus must be taken into account. We employ global ion hybrid-kinetic simulations to obtain a 2D model of Mercury's magnetosphere. This code treats ions as particles and follows the full trajectory while electrons act as a charge neutralizing fluid. The planet is treated as the perfect conductor placed in the streaming solar wind to form a quasi steady state of the magnetosphere. By placing a virtual probe in the simulation domain we obtain time series of the plasma parameters which can be compared to the observations by the MESSENGER spacecraft. The comparison of the KH instability is remarkably close to the observations of MESSENGER; to within a factor of two. The model also confirms the asymmetry in the observations. The ion density obtained from the computer model is shown together with velocity vectors (represented by arrows). The solid line represents the trajectory of the third flyby of MESSENGER on September 29, 2009.

  2. Methane emissions from a freshwater marsh in response to experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flury, Sabine; McGinnis, Daniel Frank; Gessner, Mark O.

    2010-01-01

    We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel ...... to the atmosphere, even when they occupy only relatively small littoral areas. More detailed investigations are clearly needed to assess whether global warming and nitrogen deposition can have climate feedbacks by altering methane fluxes from these wetlands.  ......We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel...... traps deployed in a series of enclosures for two 3 week periods. Diffusive fluxes were estimated on the basis of measured CH4 concentrations and application of Fick's law. Neither diffusive nor ebullitive fluxes of methane were significantly affected by warming or nitrate enrichment, possibly because...

  3. Global mass conservation method for dual-continuum gas reservoir simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Yi; Sun, Shuyu; Gong, Liang; Yu, Bo

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we find that the numerical simulation of gas flow in dual-continuum porous media may generate unphysical or non-robust results using regular finite difference method. The reason is the unphysical mass loss caused by the gas compressibility and the non-diagonal dominance of the discretized equations caused by the non-linear well term. The well term contains the product of density and pressure. For oil flow, density is independent of pressure so that the well term is linear. For gas flow, density is related to pressure by the gas law so that the well term is non-linear. To avoid these two problems, numerical methods are proposed using the mass balance relation and the local linearization of the non-linear source term to ensure the global mass conservation and the diagonal dominance of discretized equations in the computation. The proposed numerical methods are successfully applied to dual-continuum gas reservoir simulation. Mass conservation is satisfied while the computation becomes robust. Numerical results show that the location of the production well relative to the large-permeability region is very sensitive to the production efficiency. It decreases apparently when the production well is moved from the large-permeability region to the small-permeability region, even though the well is very close to the interface of the two regions. The production well is suggested to be placed inside the large-permeability region regardless of the specific position.

  4. Global mass conservation method for dual-continuum gas reservoir simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Yi

    2018-03-17

    In this paper, we find that the numerical simulation of gas flow in dual-continuum porous media may generate unphysical or non-robust results using regular finite difference method. The reason is the unphysical mass loss caused by the gas compressibility and the non-diagonal dominance of the discretized equations caused by the non-linear well term. The well term contains the product of density and pressure. For oil flow, density is independent of pressure so that the well term is linear. For gas flow, density is related to pressure by the gas law so that the well term is non-linear. To avoid these two problems, numerical methods are proposed using the mass balance relation and the local linearization of the non-linear source term to ensure the global mass conservation and the diagonal dominance of discretized equations in the computation. The proposed numerical methods are successfully applied to dual-continuum gas reservoir simulation. Mass conservation is satisfied while the computation becomes robust. Numerical results show that the location of the production well relative to the large-permeability region is very sensitive to the production efficiency. It decreases apparently when the production well is moved from the large-permeability region to the small-permeability region, even though the well is very close to the interface of the two regions. The production well is suggested to be placed inside the large-permeability region regardless of the specific position.

  5. Magnetically Modulated Heat Transport in a Global Simulation of Solar Magneto-convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cossette, Jean-Francois [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Campus Box 600, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Charbonneau, Paul [Département de Physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada); Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX (United Kingdom); Rast, Mark P., E-mail: Jean-Francois.Cossette@lasp.colorado.edu, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: smolar@ecmwf.int, E-mail: Mark.Rast@lasp.colorado.edu [Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Campus Box 391, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States)

    2017-05-20

    We present results from a global MHD simulation of solar convection in which the heat transported by convective flows varies in-phase with the total magnetic energy. The purely random initial magnetic field specified in this experiment develops into a well-organized large-scale antisymmetric component undergoing hemispherically synchronized polarity reversals on a 40 year period. A key feature of the simulation is the use of a Newtonian cooling term in the entropy equation to maintain a convectively unstable stratification and drive convection, as opposed to the specification of heating and cooling terms at the bottom and top boundaries. When taken together, the solar-like magnetic cycle and the convective heat flux signature suggest that a cyclic modulation of the large-scale heat-carrying convective flows could be operating inside the real Sun. We carry out an analysis of the entropy and momentum equations to uncover the physical mechanism responsible for the enhanced heat transport. The analysis suggests that the modulation is caused by a magnetic tension imbalance inside upflows and downflows, which perturbs their respective contributions to heat transport in such a way as to enhance the total convective heat flux at cycle maximum. Potential consequences of the heat transport modulation for solar irradiance variability are briefly discussed.

  6. Global gyrokinetic simulations of the H-mode tokamak edge pedestal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Weigang; Parker, Scott E.; Chen, Yang [Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States); Groebner, Richard J. [General Atomics, Post Office Box 85068, San Diego, California 92186 (United States); Yan, Zheng [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States); Pankin, Alexei Y.; Kruger, Scott E. [Tech-X Corporation, 5621 Arapahoe Ave., Boulder, Colorado 80305 (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Global gyrokinetic simulations of DIII-D H-mode edge pedestal show two types of instabilities may exist approaching the onset of edge localized modes: an intermediate-n, high frequency mode which we identify as the “kinetic peeling ballooning mode (KPBM),” and a high-n, low frequency mode. Our previous study [W. Wan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 185004 (2012)] has shown that when the safety factor profile is flattened around the steep pressure gradient region, the high-n mode is clearly kinetic ballooning mode and becomes the dominant instability. Otherwise, the KPBM dominates. Here, the properties of the two instabilities are studied by varying the density and temperature profiles. It is found that the KPBM is destabilized by density and ion temperature gradient, and the high-n mode is mostly destabilized by electron temperature gradient. Nonlinear simulations with the KPBM saturate at high levels. The equilibrium radial electric field (E{sub r}) reduces the transport. The effect of the parallel equilibrium current is found to be weak.

  7. Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

  8. Global simulation of flux transfer events: Generation mechanism and spacecraft signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeder, J.

    We use global MHD simulations of Earth's magnetosphere to show that for southward IMF conditions: a) steady reconnection preferentially occurs without FTEs when the stagnation flow line nearly coincides with the X-line location, which requires small dipole tilt and nearly due southward IMF, b) FTEs occur when the flow/field symmetry is broken, which requires either a large dipole tilt and/or a substantial east-west component of the IMF, c) the predicted spacecraft signature and the repetition frequency of FTEs in the simulations agrees very well with typical observations, lending credibility to the the model, d) the fundamental process that leads to FTE formation is multiple X-line formation caused by the flow and field patterns in the magnetosheath and requires no intrinsic plasma property variations like variable resistivity, e) if the dipole tilt breaks the symmetry FTEs occur only in the winter hemisphere whereas the reconnection signatures in the summer hemisphere are steady with no bipolar FTE-like signatures, f) if the IMF east-west field component breaks the symmetry FTEs occur in both hemispheres but are least likely observed near the subsolar point, and g) FTE formation depends on sufficient resolution and low diffusion in the model. Too coarse resolution and/or too high diffusivity lead to flow-through reconnection signatures that appear unphysical given the frequent observation of FTEs.

  9. Experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment effects on microbial litter decomposers in a marsh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flury, Sabine; Gessner, Mark O

    2011-02-01

    Atmospheric warming and increased nitrogen deposition can lead to changes of microbial communities with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes. We used an enclosure facility in a freshwater marsh to assess the effects on microbes associated with decomposing plant litter under conditions of simulated climate warming and pulsed nitrogen supply. Standard batches of litter were placed in coarse-mesh and fine-mesh bags and submerged in a series of heated, nitrogen-enriched, and control enclosures. They were retrieved later and analyzed for a range of microbial parameters. Fingerprinting profiles obtained by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) indicated that simulated global warming induced a shift in bacterial community structure. In addition, warming reduced fungal biomass, whereas bacterial biomass was unaffected. The mesh size of the litter bags and sampling date also had an influence on bacterial community structure, with the apparent number of dominant genotypes increasing from spring to summer. Microbial respiration was unaffected by any treatment, and nitrogen enrichment had no clear effect on any of the microbial parameters considered. Overall, these results suggest that microbes associated with decomposing plant litter in nutrient-rich freshwater marshes are resistant to extra nitrogen supplies but are likely to respond to temperature increases projected for this century.

  10. Kinetic structures of quasi-perpendicular shocks in global particle-in-cell simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Ivy Bo; Markidis, Stefano; Laure, Erwin; Johlander, Andreas; Vaivads, Andris; Khotyaintsev, Yuri; Henri, Pierre; Lapenta, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We carried out global Particle-in-Cell simulations of the interaction between the solar wind and a magnetosphere to study the kinetic collisionless physics in super-critical quasi-perpendicular shocks. After an initial simulation transient, a collisionless bow shock forms as a result of the interaction of the solar wind and a planet magnetic dipole. The shock ramp has a thickness of approximately one ion skin depth and is followed by a trailing wave train in the shock downstream. At the downstream edge of the bow shock, whistler waves propagate along the magnetic field lines and the presence of electron cyclotron waves has been identified. A small part of the solar wind ion population is specularly reflected by the shock while a larger part is deflected and heated by the shock. Solar wind ions and electrons are heated in the perpendicular directions. Ions are accelerated in the perpendicular direction in the trailing wave train region. This work is an initial effort to study the electron and ion kinetic effects developed near the bow shock in a realistic magnetic field configuration

  11. Validation of high-resolution aerosol optical thickness simulated by a global non-hydrostatic model against remote sensing measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Daisuke; Sato, Yousuke; Yashiro, Hisashi; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2017-02-01

    A high-performance computing resource allows us to conduct numerical simulations with a horizontal grid spacing that is sufficiently high to resolve cloud systems. The cutting-edge computational capability, which was provided by the K computer at RIKEN in Japan, enabled the authors to perform long-term, global simulations of air pollutions and clouds with unprecedentedly high horizontal resolutions. In this study, a next generation model capable of simulating global air pollutions with O(10 km) grid spacing by coupling an atmospheric chemistry model to the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) was performed. Using the newly developed model, month-long simulations for July were conducted with 14 km grid spacing on the K computer. Regarding the global distributions of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), it was found that the correlation coefficient (CC) between the simulation and AERONET measurements was approximately 0.7, and the normalized mean bias was -10%. The simulated AOT was also compared with satellite-retrieved values; the CC was approximately 0.6. The radiative effects due to each chemical species (dust, sea salt, organics, and sulfate) were also calculated and compared with multiple measurements. As a result, the simulated fluxes of upward shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere and the surface compared well with the observed values, whereas those of downward shortwave radiation at the surface were underestimated, even if all aerosol components were considered. However, the aerosol radiative effects on the downward shortwave flux at the surface were found to be as high as 10 W/m2 in a global scale; thus, simulated aerosol distributions can strongly affect the simulated air temperature and dynamic circulation.

  12. Using WEED to simulate the global wetland distribution in a ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Lakes and wetlands are an important land surface feature. In terms of hydrology, they regulate river discharge, mitigate flood events and constitute a significant surface water storage. Considering physical processes, they link the surface water and energy balances by altering the separation of incoming energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes. Finally, they impact biogeochemical processes and may act as carbon sinks or sources. Most global hydrology and climate models regard wetland extent and properties as constant in time. However, to study interactions between wetlands and different states of climate, it is necessary to implement surface water bodies (thereafter referred to as wetlands) with dynamical behavior into these models. Besides an improved representation of geophysical feedbacks between wetlands, land surface and atmosphere, a dynamical wetland scheme could also provide estimates of soil wetness as input for biogeochemical models, which are used to compute methane production in wetlands. Recently, a model for the representation of wetland extent dynamics (WEED) was developed as part of the hydrology model (MPI-HM) of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). The WEED scheme computes wetland extent in agreement with the range of observations for the high northern latitudes. It simulates a realistic seasonal cycle which shows sensitivity to northern snow-melt as well as rainy seasons in the tropics. Furthermore, flood peaks in river discharge are mitigated. However, the WEED scheme overestimates wetland extent in the Tropics which might be related to the MPI-HM's simplified potential evapotranspiration computation. In order to overcome this limitation, the WEED scheme is implemented into the MPI-M's land surface model JSBACH. Thus, not only its effect on water fluxes can be investigated but also its impact on the energy cycle, which is not included in the MPI-HM. Furthermore, it will be possible to analyze the physical effects of wetlands in a

  13. Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

    2011-10-15

    Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

  14. Global Hybrid Simulations of The Magnetopause Boundary Layers In Low- and High-latitude Magnetic Reconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Y.; Perez, J. D.

    A 2-D global hybrid simulation is carried out to study the structure of the dayside mag- netopause in the noon-midnight meridian plane associated with magnetic reconnec- tion. In the simulation the bow shock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause are formed self-consistently by supersonic solar wind passing the geomagnetic field. The recon- nection events at high- and low-latitudes are simulated for various IMF conditions. The following results will be presented. (1) Large-amplitude rotational discontinuities and Alfvén waves are present in the quasi-steady reconnection layer. (2) The rotational discontinuity possesses an electron sense, or right-hand polarization in the magnetic field as the discontinuity forms from the X line. Later, however, the rotational dis- continuity tends to evolve to a structure with a smallest field rotational angle and thus may reverse its sense of the field rotation. The Walén relation is tested for elec- tron and ion flows in the magnetopause rotational discontinuities with left-hand and right-hand polarizations. (3) The structure of the magnetopause discontinuities and that of the accelerated/decelerated flows are modified significantly by the presence of the local magnetosheath flow. (4) Field-aligned currents are generated in the magne- topause rotational discontinuities. Part of the magnetopause currents propagate with Alfvén waves along the field lines into the polar ionosphere, contributing to the field- aligned current system in the high latitudes. The generation of the parallel currents under northward and southward IMF conditions is investigated. (5) Finally, typical ion velocity distributions will be shown at various locations across the magnetopause northward and southward of the X lines. The ion distributions associated with single or multiple X lines will be discussed.

  15. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  16. Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merlo, G.; Brunner, S.; Huang, Z.; Coda, S.; Görler, T.; Villard, L.; Bañón Navarro, A.; Dominski, J.; Fontana, M.; Jenko, F.; Porte, L.; Told, D.

    2018-03-01

    Axisymmetric (n = 0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f 0 which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper (Z Huang et al, this issue). Given that f 0 scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f 0 is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency {f}{GAM}. In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE to simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature and properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. Simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.

  17. Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

  18. Comprehensive simulation study on local and global development of auroral arcs and field-aligned potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Tomohiko; Oya, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Kunihiko; Sato, Tetsuya.

    1992-10-01

    Extensive three-dimensional computer simulations of the magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling are performed to study self-excitation of auroral arcs with special emphasis on 1) nonlinear evolution of the feedback instability in the M-I coupling system, 2) controlling mechanisms of the auroral arc structure, 3) formation of a field-aligned electric potential structure in association with the development of the feedback instability, and 4) effects of the parallel potential generation on auroral arc development. It is reconfirmed that the feedback instability produces a longitudinally elongated, latitudinally striated structure where the upward field-aligned current and the ionospheric density are locally enhanced. The following important new features are revealed. 1) The global distribution of the striation structure is primarily governed by the magnetospheric convection pattern and the ionospheric density distribution. 2) There appears a significant dawn-dusk asymmetry in the auroral arc formation, even though the apparent geometrical relationship is symmetric. 3) The recombination effect plays a significant role in the global, as well as local, development of the auroral arc structure. The nonlinearity of recombination, in conjunction with the closure of an arc-associated local field-aligned current system, acts to destroy an old arc and creates a new arc in a different but adjacent position. 4) A V-shaped field aligned potential structure is created in association with an auroral arc. Rapid increase in the electron density and the local upward field-aligned current of an arc arises as a result of enhanced ionization by precipitating electrons accelerated by the parallel potential. 5) A drastic oscillatory behavior of appearance and disappearance of auroral arcs is obtained when the ionization effect is strong. The period is primarily given by the Alfven bounce time. (J.P.N.)

  19. Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Yan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs and chemistry–climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100–500 km, typically 200 km. These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long.  ×  2° lat. and its three nested models (at 0.667° long.  ×  0.5° lat. covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD, the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS, aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI products. The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3

  20. Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Masaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Miyamoto, Yoshiaki; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Nakano, Masuo; Kodama, Chihiro; Noda, Akira T.; Nasuno, Tomoe; Yamada, Yohei; Fukutomi, Yoshiki

    2017-12-01

    This article reviews the major outcomes of a 5-year (2011-2016) project using the K computer to perform global numerical atmospheric simulations based on the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM). The K computer was made available to the public in September 2012 and was used as a primary resource for Japan's Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE), an initiative to investigate five strategic research areas; the NICAM project fell under the research area of climate and weather simulation sciences. Combining NICAM with high-performance computing has created new opportunities in three areas of research: (1) higher resolution global simulations that produce more realistic representations of convective systems, (2) multi-member ensemble simulations that are able to perform extended-range forecasts 10-30 days in advance, and (3) multi-decadal simulations for climatology and variability. Before the K computer era, NICAM was used to demonstrate realistic simulations of intra-seasonal oscillations including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), merely as a case study approach. Thanks to the big leap in computational performance of the K computer, we could greatly increase the number of cases of MJO events for numerical simulations, in addition to integrating time and horizontal resolution. We conclude that the high-resolution global non-hydrostatic model, as used in this five-year project, improves the ability to forecast intra-seasonal oscillations and associated tropical cyclogenesis compared with that of the relatively coarser operational models currently in use. The impacts of the sub-kilometer resolution simulation and the multi-decadal simulations using NICAM are also reviewed.

  1. ON HELIUM MIXING IN QUASI-GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF THE INTRACLUSTER MEDIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berlok, Thomas; Pessah, Martin E., E-mail: berlok@nbi.dk, E-mail: mpessah@nbi.dk [Niels Bohr International Academy, Niels Bohr Institute, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø (Denmark)

    2016-12-20

    The assumption of a spatially uniform helium distribution in the intracluster medium (ICM) can lead to biases in the estimates of key cluster parameters if composition gradients are present. The helium concentration profile in galaxy clusters is unfortunately not directly observable. Current models addressing the putative sedimentation are one-dimensional and parametrize the presence of magnetic fields in a crude way, ignoring the weakly collisional, magnetized nature of the medium. When these effects are considered, a wide variety of instabilities can play an important role in the plasma dynamics. In a series of recent papers, we have developed the local, linear theory of these instabilities and addressed their nonlinear development with a modified version of Athena. Here, we extend our study by developing a quasi-global approach that we use to simulate the mixing of helium as induced by generalizations of the heat-flux-driven buoyancy instability (HBI) and the magnetothermal instability, which feed off thermal and composition gradients. In the inner region of the ICM, mixing can occur over a few gigayears, after which the average magnetic field inclination angle is ∼30°–50°, resulting in an averaged Spitzer parameter higher by about 20% than the value obtained in homogeneous simulations. In the cluster outskirts the instabilities are rather inefficient, due to the shallow gradients. This suggests that composition gradients in cluster cores might be shallower than one-dimensional models predict. More quantitative statements demand more refined models that can incorporate the physics driving the sedimentation process and simultaneously account for the weakly collisional nature of the plasma.

  2. Global Simulations of the Inner Regions of Protoplanetary Disks with Comprehensive Disk Microphysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xue-Ning

    2017-08-01

    The gas dynamics of weakly ionized protoplanetary disks (PPDs) are largely governed by the coupling between gas and magnetic fields, described by three non-ideal magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) effects (Ohmic, Hall, ambipolar). Previous local simulations incorporating these processes have revealed that the inner regions of PPDs are largely laminar and accompanied by wind-driven accretion. We conduct 2D axisymmetric, fully global MHD simulations of these regions (˜1-20 au), taking into account all non-ideal MHD effects, with tabulated diffusion coefficients and approximate treatment of external ionization and heating. With the net vertical field aligned with disk rotation, the Hall-shear instability strongly amplifies horizontal magnetic field, making the overall dynamics dependent on initial field configuration. Following disk formation, the disk likely relaxes into an inner zone characterized by asymmetric field configuration across the midplane, which smoothly transitions to a more symmetric outer zone. Angular momentum transport is driven by both MHD winds and laminar Maxwell stress, with both accretion and decretion flows present at different heights, and modestly asymmetric winds from the two disk sides. With anti-aligned field polarity, weakly magnetized disks settle into an asymmetric field configuration with supersonic accretion flow concentrated at one side of the disk surface, and highly asymmetric winds between the two disk sides. In all cases, the wind is magneto-thermal in nature, characterized by a mass loss rate exceeding the accretion rate. More strongly magnetized disks give more symmetric field configuration and flow structures. Deeper far-UV penetration leads to stronger and less stable outflows. Implications for observations and planet formation are also discussed.

  3. Global Simulations of the Inner Regions of Protoplanetary Disks with Comprehensive Disk Microphysics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bai, Xue-Ning, E-mail: xbai@cfa.harvard.edu [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS-51, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-08-10

    The gas dynamics of weakly ionized protoplanetary disks (PPDs) are largely governed by the coupling between gas and magnetic fields, described by three non-ideal magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) effects (Ohmic, Hall, ambipolar). Previous local simulations incorporating these processes have revealed that the inner regions of PPDs are largely laminar and accompanied by wind-driven accretion. We conduct 2D axisymmetric, fully global MHD simulations of these regions (∼1–20 au), taking into account all non-ideal MHD effects, with tabulated diffusion coefficients and approximate treatment of external ionization and heating. With the net vertical field aligned with disk rotation, the Hall-shear instability strongly amplifies horizontal magnetic field, making the overall dynamics dependent on initial field configuration. Following disk formation, the disk likely relaxes into an inner zone characterized by asymmetric field configuration across the midplane, which smoothly transitions to a more symmetric outer zone. Angular momentum transport is driven by both MHD winds and laminar Maxwell stress, with both accretion and decretion flows present at different heights, and modestly asymmetric winds from the two disk sides. With anti-aligned field polarity, weakly magnetized disks settle into an asymmetric field configuration with supersonic accretion flow concentrated at one side of the disk surface, and highly asymmetric winds between the two disk sides. In all cases, the wind is magneto-thermal in nature, characterized by a mass loss rate exceeding the accretion rate. More strongly magnetized disks give more symmetric field configuration and flow structures. Deeper far-UV penetration leads to stronger and less stable outflows. Implications for observations and planet formation are also discussed.

  4. Global simulation of formation and evolution of plasmoid and flux-rope in the Earth's Magnetotail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Y.; Raeder, J.; Du, A.

    2014-12-01

    The observation of plasmoids and flux-ropes in the Earth's magnetotail was crucial to establish the simultaneous presence of multiple x-lines in the tail, and has become the basis for the Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL) model of substorms. While the "classical" NENL model envisions x-lines that extend across the entire tail, recent observations have shown that neither do the x-lines and resulting plasmoids encompass the entire tail, nor do the x-lines have to lie along the y-axis. The fragmentation of the tail by spatially and temporally limited x-lines has important consequences for the mass and energy budget of the tail. Recent ARTEMIS observations have shown that the plasmoids in the distant tail are limited in the Y direction and some flux ropes are tilted during their tailward propagation. Understanding their formation and evolution during their propagation through the magnetotail shall shred more light on the general energy and flux transport of the Earth's magnetosphere. In this study we simulate plasmoids and flux-ropes in the Earth's magnetotail using the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model (OpenGGCM). We investigate the generation mechanisms for tail plasmoids and flux-ropes and their evolution as they propagate in the magnetotail. The simulation results show that the limited extend of NENL controls the length or the Y scale of tail plasmoid and flux rope. In addition, by studying their 3D magnetic topology we find that the tilted flux rope forms due to a progressive spreading of reconnection line along the east-west direction, which produces and releases two ends of the flux rope at different times and in different speeds. By constructing a catalogue of observational signatures of plasmoid and flux rope we compare the differences of their signatures and find that large-scale plasmoids have much weaker core fields than that inside the small-scale flux ropes.

  5. Global ice volume variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice-dynamical model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    2002-01-01

    A coupled ice sheet—ice shelf—bedrock model was run at 20km resolution to simulate the evolution of global ice cover during the last glacial cycle. The mass balance model uses monthly mean temperature and precipitation as input and incorporates the albedo—mass balance feedback. The model is forced

  6. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

    2000-01-01

    A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

  7. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

  8. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2004-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

  9. The atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model: simulations versus observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Rotstayn, L. D.; Krummel, P. B.

    2002-07-01

    A 5-year simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model (GCM) is compared with detailed boundary-layer observations at six locations, two over the ocean and four over land. Field observations, in the form of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of wind, temperature and humidity, are generally available for each hour over periods of one month or more in a single year. GCM simulations are for specific months corresponding to the field observations, for each of five years. At three of the four land sites (two in Australia, one in south-eastern France), modelled rainfall was close to the observed climatological values, but was significantly in deficit at the fourth (Kansas, USA). Observed rainfall during the field expeditions was close to climatology at all four sites. At the Kansas site, modelled screen temperatures (Tsc), diurnal temperature amplitude and sensible heat flux (H) were significantly higher than observed, with modelled evaporation (E) much lower. At the other three land sites, there is excellent correspondence between the diurnal amplitude and phase and absolute values of each variable (Tsc, H, E). Mean monthly vertical profiles for specific times of the day show strong similarities: over land and ocean in vertical shape and absolute values of variables, and in the mixed-layer and nocturnal-inversion depths (over land) and the height of the elevated inversion or height of the cloud layer (over the sea). Of special interest is the presence climatologically of early morning humidity inversions related to dewfall and of nocturnal low-level jets; such features are found in the GCM simulations. The observed day-to-day variability in vertical structure is captured well in the model for most sites, including, over a whole month, the temperature range at all levels in the boundary layer, and the mix of shallow and deep mixed layers. Weaknesses or unrealistic structure include the following, (a) unrealistic model mixed

  10. Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ordóñez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Three global Chemistry Transport Models – MOZART, MOCAGE, and TM5 – as well as MOZART coupled to the IFS meteorological model including assimilation of ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO satellite column retrievals, have been compared to surface measurements and MOZAIC vertical profiles in the troposphere over Western/Central Europe for summer 2003. The models reproduce the meteorological features and enhancement of pollution during the period 2–14 August, but not fully the ozone and CO mixing ratios measured during that episode. Modified normalised mean biases are around −25% (except ~5% for MOCAGE in the case of ozone and from −80% to −30% for CO in the boundary layer above Frankfurt. The coupling and assimilation of CO columns from MOPITT overcomes some of the deficiencies in the treatment of transport, chemistry and emissions in MOZART, reducing the negative biases to around 20%. The high reactivity and small dry deposition velocities in MOCAGE seem to be responsible for the overestimation of O3 in this model. Results from sensitivity simulations indicate that an increase of the horizontal resolution to around 1°×1° and potential uncertainties in European anthropogenic emissions or in long-range transport of pollution cannot completely account for the underestimation of CO and O3 found for most models. A process-oriented TM5 sensitivity simulation where soil wetness was reduced results in a decrease in dry deposition fluxes and a subsequent ozone increase larger than the ozone changes due to the previous sensitivity runs. However this latest simulation still underestimates ozone during the heat wave and overestimates it outside that period. Most probably, a combination of the mentioned factors together with underrepresented biogenic emissions in the models, uncertainties in the modelling of vertical/horizontal transport processes in the proximity of the boundary layer as well as limitations of

  11. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  12. Use of a hybrid code for global-scale plasma simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, D.W.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a demonstration of the use of a hybrid code to model the Earth's magnetosphere on a global scale. The typical hybrid code calculates the interaction of fully kinetic ions and a massless electron fluid with the magnetic field. This code also includes a fluid ion component to approximate the cold ionospheric plasma that spatially overlaps with the discrete particle component. Other innovative features of the code include a numerically generated curvilinear coordinate system and subcycling of the magnetic field update to the particle push. These innovations allow the code to accommodate disparate time and distance scales. The demonstration is a simulation of the noon meridian plane of the magnetosphere. The code exhibits the formation of fast and slow-mode shocks and tearing reconnection at the magnetopause. New results include particle acceleration in the cusp and nearly field aligned currents linking the cusp and polar ionosphere. The paper also describes a density depletion instability and measures to avoid it. 27 refs., 4 figs

  13. Global SWOT Data Assimilation of River Hydrodynamic Model; the Twin Simulation Test of CaMa-Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeshima, D.; Yamazaki, D.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    CaMa-Flood is a global scale model for simulating hydrodynamics in large scale rivers. It can simulate river hydrodynamics such as river discharge, flooded area, water depth and so on by inputting water runoff derived from land surface model. Recently many improvements at parameters or terrestrial data are under process to enhance the reproducibility of true natural phenomena. However, there are still some errors between nature and simulated result due to uncertainties in each model. SWOT (Surface water and Ocean Topography) is a satellite, which is going to be launched in 2021, can measure open water surface elevation. SWOT observed data can be used to calibrate hydrodynamics model at river flow forecasting and is expected to improve model's accuracy. Combining observation data into model to calibrate is called data assimilation. In this research, we developed data-assimilated river flow simulation system in global scale, using CaMa-Flood as river hydrodynamics model and simulated SWOT as observation data. Generally at data assimilation, calibrating "model value" with "observation value" makes "assimilated value". However, the observed data of SWOT satellite will not be available until its launch in 2021. Instead, we simulated the SWOT observed data using CaMa-Flood. Putting "pure input" into CaMa-Flood produce "true water storage". Extracting actual daily swath of SWOT from "true water storage" made simulated observation. For "model value", we made "disturbed water storage" by putting "noise disturbed input" to CaMa-Flood. Since both "model value" and "observation value" are made by same model, we named this twin simulation. At twin simulation, simulated observation of "true water storage" is combined with "disturbed water storage" to make "assimilated value". As the data assimilation method, we used ensemble Kalman filter. If "assimilated value" is closer to "true water storage" than "disturbed water storage", the data assimilation can be marked effective. Also

  14. Using interactive online role-playing simulations to develop global competency and to prepare engineering students for a globalised world

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Dominik; Wold, Kari; Moore, Stephanie

    2015-09-01

    The world is changing significantly, and it is becoming increasingly globalised. This means that countries, businesses, and professionals must think and act globally to be successful. Many individuals, however, are not prepared with the global competency skills needed to communicate and perform effectively in a globalised system. To address this need, higher education institutions are looking for ways to instil these skills in their students. This paper explains one promising approach using current learning principles: transnational interactive online environments in engineering education. In 2011, the TU Dortmund and the University of Virginia initiated a collaboration in which engineering students from both universities took part in one online synchronous course and worked together on global topics. This paper describes how the course was designed and discusses specific research results regarding how interactive online role-playing simulations support students in gaining the global competency skills required to actively participate in today's international workforce.

  15. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecanique de simulation numerique du soudage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petelet, M

    2008-07-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of thermo-mechanical models in numerical weld modelling; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecaniques de simulation numerique du soudage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petelet, M

    2007-10-15

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range {exclamation_point} This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases. The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  17. A Non-hydrostatic Atmospheric Model for Global High-resolution Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, X.; Li, X.

    2017-12-01

    A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic atmosphere model, GRAPES_YY, is developed on the spherical Yin-Yang grid system in order to enforce global high-resolution weather simulation or forecasting at the CAMS/CMA. The quasi-uniform grid makes the computation be of high efficiency and free of pole problem. Full representation of the three-dimensional Coriolis force is considered in the governing equations. Under the constraint of third-order boundary interpolation, the model is integrated with the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian method using the same code on both zones. A static halo region is set to ensure computation of cross-boundary transport and updating Dirichlet-type boundary conditions in the solution process of elliptical equations with the Schwarz method. A series of dynamical test cases, including the solid-body advection, the balanced geostrophic flow, zonal flow over an isolated mountain, development of the Rossby-Haurwitz wave and a baroclinic wave, are carried out, and excellent computational stability and accuracy of the dynamic core has been confirmed. After implementation of the physical processes of long and short-wave radiation, cumulus convection, micro-physical transformation of water substances and the turbulent processes in the planetary boundary layer include surface layer vertical fluxes parameterization, a long-term run of the model is then put forward under an idealized aqua-planet configuration to test the model physics and model ability in both short-term and long-term integrations. In the aqua-planet experiment, the model shows an Earth-like structure of circulation. The time-zonal mean temperature, wind components and humidity illustrate reasonable subtropical zonal westerly jet, meridional three-cell circulation, tropical convection and thermodynamic structures. The specific SST and solar insolation being symmetric about the equator enhance the ITCZ and tropical precipitation, which concentrated in tropical region. Additional analysis and

  18. Precipitation and total power consumption in the ionosphere: Global MHD simulation results compared with Polar and SNOE observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Palmroth

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available We compare the ionospheric electron precipitation morphology and power from a global MHD simulation (GUMICS-4 with direct measurements of auroral energy flux during a pair of substorms on 28-29 March 1998. The electron precipitation power is computed directly from global images of auroral light observed by the Polar satellite ultraviolet imager (UVI. Independent of the Polar UVI measurements, the electron precipitation energy is determined from SNOE satellite observations on the thermospheric nitric oxide (NO density. We find that the GUMICS-4 simulation reproduces the spatial variation of the global aurora rather reliably in the sense that the onset of the substorm is shown in GUMICS-4 simulation as enhanced precipitation in the right location at the right time. The total integrated precipitation power in the GUMICS-4 simulation is in quantitative agreement with the observations during quiet times, i.e., before the two substorm intensifications. We find that during active times the GUMICS-4 integrated precipitation is a factor of 5 lower than the observations indicate. However, we also find factor of 2-3 differences in the precipitation power among the three different UVI processing methods tested here. The findings of this paper are used to complete an earlier objective, in which the total ionospheric power deposition in the simulation is forecasted from a mathematical expression, which is a function of solar wind density, velocity and magnetic field. We find that during this event, the correlation coefficient between the outcome of the forecasting expression and the simulation results is 0.83. During the event, the simulation result on the total ionospheric power deposition agrees with observations (correlation coefficient 0.8 and the AE index (0.85.

  19. A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

  20. SELF-DESTRUCTING SPIRAL WAVES: GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF A SPIRAL-WAVE INSTABILITY IN ACCRETION DISKS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Jaehan; Hartmann, Lee [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 1085 S. University Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Nelson, Richard P.; Richard, Samuel, E-mail: jaehbae@umich.edu, E-mail: lhartm@umich.edu, E-mail: r.p.nelson@qmul.ac.uk, E-mail: samuel.richard@qmul.ac.uk [Astronomy Unit, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (United Kingdom)

    2016-09-20

    We present results from a suite of three-dimensional global hydrodynamic simulations that shows that spiral density waves propagating in circumstellar disks are unstable to the growth of a parametric instability that leads to break down of the flow into turbulence. This spiral wave instability (SWI) arises from a resonant interaction between pairs of inertial waves, or inertial-gravity waves, and the background spiral wave. The development of the instability in the linear regime involves the growth of a broad spectrum of inertial modes, with growth rates on the order of the orbital time, and results in a nonlinear saturated state in which turbulent velocity perturbations are of a similar magnitude to those induced by the spiral wave. The turbulence induces angular momentum transport and vertical mixing at a rate that depends locally on the amplitude of the spiral wave (we obtain a stress parameter α ∼ 5 × 10{sup −4} in our reference model). The instability is found to operate in a wide range of disk models, including those with isothermal or adiabatic equations of state, and in viscous disks where the dimensionless kinematic viscosity ν ≤ 10{sup −5}. This robustness suggests that the instability will have applications to a broad range of astrophysical disk-related phenomena, including those in close binary systems, planets embedded in protoplanetary disks (including Jupiter in our own solar system) and FU Orionis outburst models. Further work is required to determine the nature of the instability and to evaluate its observational consequences in physically more complete disk models than we have considered in this paper.

  1. SELF-DESTRUCTING SPIRAL WAVES: GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF A SPIRAL-WAVE INSTABILITY IN ACCRETION DISKS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Jaehan; Hartmann, Lee; Nelson, Richard P.; Richard, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    We present results from a suite of three-dimensional global hydrodynamic simulations that shows that spiral density waves propagating in circumstellar disks are unstable to the growth of a parametric instability that leads to break down of the flow into turbulence. This spiral wave instability (SWI) arises from a resonant interaction between pairs of inertial waves, or inertial-gravity waves, and the background spiral wave. The development of the instability in the linear regime involves the growth of a broad spectrum of inertial modes, with growth rates on the order of the orbital time, and results in a nonlinear saturated state in which turbulent velocity perturbations are of a similar magnitude to those induced by the spiral wave. The turbulence induces angular momentum transport and vertical mixing at a rate that depends locally on the amplitude of the spiral wave (we obtain a stress parameter α ∼ 5 × 10 −4 in our reference model). The instability is found to operate in a wide range of disk models, including those with isothermal or adiabatic equations of state, and in viscous disks where the dimensionless kinematic viscosity ν ≤ 10 −5 . This robustness suggests that the instability will have applications to a broad range of astrophysical disk-related phenomena, including those in close binary systems, planets embedded in protoplanetary disks (including Jupiter in our own solar system) and FU Orionis outburst models. Further work is required to determine the nature of the instability and to evaluate its observational consequences in physically more complete disk models than we have considered in this paper.

  2. Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

  3. Internet-Based Digital Simulation for Cleft Surgery Education: A 5-Year Assessment of Demographics, Usage, and Global Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantar, Rami S; Plana, Natalie M; Cutting, Court B; Diaz-Siso, Jesus Rodrigo; Flores, Roberto L

    2018-01-29

    In October 2012, a freely available, internet-based cleft simulator was created in partnership between academic, nonprofit, and industry sectors. The purpose of this educational resource was to address global disparities in cleft surgery education. This report assesses demographics, usage, and global effect of our simulator, in its fifth year since inception. Evaluate the global effect, usage, and demographics of an internet-based educational digital simulation cleft surgery software. Simulator modules, available in five languages demonstrate surgical anatomy, markings, detailed procedures, and intraoperative footage to supplement digital animation. Available data regarding number of users, sessions, countries reached, and content access were recorded. Surveys evaluating the demographic characteristics of registered users and simulator use were collected by direct e-mail. The total number of simulator new and active users reached 2865 and 4086 in June 2017, respectively. By June 2017, users from 136 countries had accessed the simulator. From 2015 to 2017, the number of sessions was 11,176 with a monthly average of 399.0 ± 190.0. Developing countries accounted for 35% of sessions and the average session duration was 9.0 ± 7.3 minutes. This yields a total simulator screen time of 100,584 minutes (1676 hours). Most survey respondents were surgeons or trainees (87%) specializing in plastic, maxillofacial, or general surgery (89%). Most users found the simulator to be useful (88%), at least equivalent or more useful than other resources (83%), and used it for teaching (58%). Our internet-based interactive cleft surgery platform reaches its intended target audience, is not restricted by socioeconomic barriers to access, and is judged to be useful by surgeons. More than 4000 active users have been reached since inception. The total screen time over approximately 2 years exceeded 1600 hours. This suggests that future surgical simulators of this kind may be sustainable by

  4. Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

    2015-12-15

    Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

  5. Globally-Optimized Local Pseudopotentials for (Orbital-Free) Density Functional Theory Simulations of Liquids and Solids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rio, Beatriz G; Dieterich, Johannes M; Carter, Emily A

    2017-08-08

    The accuracy of local pseudopotentials (LPSs) is one of two major determinants of the fidelity of orbital-free density functional theory (OFDFT) simulations. We present a global optimization strategy for LPSs that enables OFDFT to reproduce solid and liquid properties obtained from Kohn-Sham DFT. Our optimization strategy can fit arbitrary properties from both solid and liquid phases, so the resulting globally optimized local pseudopotentials (goLPSs) can be used in solid and/or liquid-phase simulations depending on the fitting process. We show three test cases proving that we can (1) improve solid properties compared to our previous bulk-derived local pseudopotential generation scheme; (2) refine predicted liquid and solid properties by adding force matching data; and (3) generate a from-scratch, accurate goLPS from the local channel of a non-local pseudopotential. The proposed scheme therefore serves as a full and improved LPS construction protocol.

  6. Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

    2012-01-01

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

  7. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  8. A global three dimensional hybrid simulation of the interaction between a weakly magnetized obstacle and the solar wind

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trávníček, Pavel; Hellinger, Petr; Schiver, D.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 679, CP679 (2003), s. 485-488 ISSN 1551-7616. [Solar wind ten. Pisa, 17.06.2002-21.06.2002] Grant - others:ESA(NL) Prodex14529/00/NL/SFe; NSF(US) INT-0010111 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : magnetized obstacle * solar wind * global hybrid simulations Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics

  9. Aerosol effects on cloud water amounts were successfully simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Yousuke; Goto, Daisuke; Michibata, Takuro; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Takemura, Toshihiko; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2018-03-07

    Aerosols affect climate by modifying cloud properties through their role as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, called aerosol-cloud interactions. In most global climate models (GCMs), the aerosol-cloud interactions are represented by empirical parameterisations, in which the mass of cloud liquid water (LWP) is assumed to increase monotonically with increasing aerosol loading. Recent satellite observations, however, have yielded contradictory results: LWP can decrease with increasing aerosol loading. This difference implies that GCMs overestimate the aerosol effect, but the reasons for the difference are not obvious. Here, we reproduce satellite-observed LWP responses using a global simulation with explicit representations of cloud microphysics, instead of the parameterisations. Our analyses reveal that the decrease in LWP originates from the response of evaporation and condensation processes to aerosol perturbations, which are not represented in GCMs. The explicit representation of cloud microphysics in global scale modelling reduces the uncertainty of climate prediction.

  10. On Fast Post-Processing of Global Positioning System Simulator Truth Data and Receiver Measurements and Solutions Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kizhner, Semion; Day, John H. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Post-Processing of data related to a Global Positioning System (GPS) simulation is an important activity in qualification of a GPS receiver for space flight. Because a GPS simulator is a critical resource it is desirable to move off the pertinent simulation data from the simulator as soon as a test is completed. The simulator data files are usually moved to a Personal Computer (PC), where the post-processing of the receiver logged measurements and solutions data and simulated data is performed. Typically post-processing is accomplished using PC-based commercial software languages and tools. Because of commercial software systems generality their general-purpose functions are notoriously slow and more than often are the bottleneck problem even for short duration experiments. For example, it may take 8 hours to post-process data from a 6-hour simulation. There is a need to do post-processing faster, especially in order to use the previous test results as feedback for a next simulation setup. This paper demonstrates that a fast software linear interpolation algorithm is applicable to a large class of engineering problems, like GPS simulation data post-processing, where computational time is a critical resource and is one of the most important considerations. An approach is developed that allows to speed-up post-processing by an order of magnitude. It is based on improving the post-processing bottleneck interpolation algorithm using apriori information that is specific to the GPS simulation application. The presented post-processing scheme was used in support of a few successful space flight missions carrying GPS receivers. A future approach to solving the post-processing performance problem using Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) technology is described.

  11. Towards Global Simulation of Irrigation in a Land Surface Model: Multiple Cropping and Rice Paddy in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Rodell, Matthew; Ozdogan, Mutlu

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural land use significantly influences the surface water and energy balances. Effects of irrigation on land surface states and fluxes include repartitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes, an increase in net radiation, and an increase in soil moisture and runoff. We are working on representing irrigation practices in continental- to global-scale land surface simulation in NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Because agricultural practices across the nations are diverse, and complex, we are attempting to capture the first-order reality of the regional practices before achieving a global implementation. This study focuses on two issues in Southeast Asia: multiple cropping and rice paddy irrigation systems. We first characterize agricultural practices in the region (i.e., crop types, growing seasons, and irrigation) using the Global data set of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset. Rice paddy extent is identified using remote sensing products. Whether irrigated or rainfed, flooded fields need to be represented and treated explicitly. By incorporating these properties and processes into a physically based land surface model, we are able to quantify the impacts on the simulated states and fluxes.

  12. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  13. Numerical simulations of thermo-compositional global convection with generation of proto-continental crust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozel, A. B.; Golabek, G.; Gerya, T.; Jain, C.; Tackley, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    We study the creation of primordial continental crust (TTG rocks) employing fully self-consistent numerical models of thermo-chemical convection on a global scale at the Archean. We use realistic rheological parameters [1] in 2D spherical annulus geometry using the convection code StagYY [2] for a one billion years period. Starting from a pyrolytic composition and an initially warm core, our simulations first generate mafic crust and depleted mantle in the upper mantle. The basaltic material can be both erupted (cold) and/or intruded (warm) at the base of the crust following a predefined partitioning. At all times, water concentration is considered fully saturated in the top 10 km of the domain, and it simply advected with the deforming material elsewhere. We track the pressure-temperature conditions of the newly formed hydrated basalt and check if it matches the conditions necessary for the formation of proto-continental crust [3]. We systematically test the influence of volcanism (eruption, also called "heat pipe") and plutonism (intrusive magmatism) on the time-dependent geotherm in the lithosphere. We show that the "heat-pipe" model (assuming 100% eruption) suggested to be the main heat loss mechanism during the Archean epoch [4] is not able to produce continental crust since it forms a too cold lithosphere. We also systematically test various friction coefficients and show that an intrusion fraction higher than 60% (in agreement with [5]) combined with a friction coefficient larger than 0.1 produces the expected amount of the three main petrological TTG compositions previously reported [3]. This result seems robust as the amount of TTG rocks formed vary over orders of magnitude. A large eruption over intrusion ratio can result in up to 100 times less TTG felsic crust production than a case where plutonism dominates. This study represents a major step towards the production of self-consistent convection models able to generate the continental crust of the Earth

  14. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  15. Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

    2018-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community. PMID:29674806

  16. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

    2010-05-01

    The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

  17. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21. century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; Noblet-Ducoudre, N. de; Kato, E.

    2014-01-01

    Bio-geophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO 2 simulations for the 21. century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO 2 -fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. (authors)

  18. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  19. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  20. Evaluation and uncertainties of global climate models as simulated in East Asia and China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Z.C.

    1994-01-01

    The assessments and uncertainties of the general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated in East Asia and China (15-60 N, 70-140 E) have been investigated by using seven GCMs. Four methods of assessment have been chosen. The variables for the validations for the GCMs include the annual, seasonal and monthly mean temperatures and precipitation. The assessments indicated that: (1) the simulations of seven GCMs for temperature are much better than those for precipitation; (2) the simulations in winter are much better than those in summer; (3) the simulations in eastern parts are much better than those in Western parts for both temperature and precipitation; (4) the best GCM for simulated temperature is the GISS model, and the best GCM for simulated precipitation is the UKMO-H model. The seven GCMs' means for both simulated temperature and precipitation provided good results. The range of uncertainties in East Asia and China due to human activities are presented. The differences between the GCMs for temperature and precipitation before the year 2050 are much smaller than those after the year 2050

  1. GLOBAL HIGH-RESOLUTION N-BODY SIMULATION OF PLANET FORMATION. I. PLANETESIMAL-DRIVEN MIGRATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kominami, J. D. [Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro-Ku, Tokyo (Japan); Daisaka, H. [Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi-shi, Tokyo (Japan); Makino, J. [RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo (Japan); Fujimoto, M., E-mail: kominami@mail.jmlab.jp, E-mail: daisaka@phys.science.hit-u.ac.jp, E-mail: makino@mail.jmlab.jp, E-mail: fujimoto.masaki@jaxa.jp [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Sagamihara-shi, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2016-03-01

    We investigated whether outward planetesimal-driven migration (PDM) takes place or not in simulations when the self-gravity of planetesimals is included. We performed N-body simulations of planetesimal disks with a large width (0.7–4 au) that ranges over the ice line. The simulations consisted of two stages. The first-stage simulations were carried out to see the runaway growth phase using the planetesimals of initially the same mass. The runaway growth took place both at the inner edge of the disk and at the region just outside the ice line. This result was utilized for the initial setup of the second-stage simulations, in which the runaway bodies just outside the ice line were replaced by the protoplanets with about the isolation mass. In the second-stage simulations, the outward migration of the protoplanet was followed by the stopping of the migration due to the increase of the random velocity of the planetesimals. Owing to this increase of random velocities, one of the PDM criteria derived in Minton and Levison was broken. In the current simulations, the effect of the gas disk is not considered. It is likely that the gas disk plays an important role in PDM, and we plan to study its effect in future papers.

  2. For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, Falko

    2017-04-01

    A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

  3. Simulation with an O-AGCM of the influence of variations of the solar constant on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Crowley, T.J. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Oceanography

    1996-07-01

    Two simulations have been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further results indicate that solar variability induces a similar pattern of surface temperature change as the increase of greenhouse gases, i.e. an increase of the land-sea contrast. However, the solarinduced warming pattern over the ocean during northern hemispheric summer is more centered over the northern hemisphere subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the increase in greenhouse gases. Finally, the magnitude of the estimated solar warming during the 20th century is not sufficient to explain the observed warming. The recent observed 30-year trends are inconsistent with the solar forcing simulation at an estimated 90% significance level. Also, the observed trend pattern agrees better with the greenhouse warming pattern. (orig.)

  4. Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian S. Acuña-Rodríguez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at

  5. Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

    2017-01-01

    The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could

  6. Global heating distributions for January 1979 calculated from GLA assimilated and simulated model-based datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaack, Todd K.; Lenzen, Allen J.; Johnson, Donald R.

    1991-01-01

    This study surveys the large-scale distribution of heating for January 1979 obtained from five sources of information. Through intercomparison of these distributions, with emphasis on satellite-derived information, an investigation is conducted into the global distribution of atmospheric heating and the impact of observations on the diagnostic estimates of heating derived from assimilated datasets. The results indicate a substantial impact of satellite information on diagnostic estimates of heating in regions where there is a scarcity of conventional observations. The addition of satellite data provides information on the atmosphere's temperature and wind structure that is important for estimation of the global distribution of heating and energy exchange.

  7. Simulations research of the global predictive control with self-adaptive in the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Jie; Xia Guoqing; Zhang Wei

    2007-01-01

    For further improving the dynamic control capabilities of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant, this paper puts forward to apply the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive in the rotate speed control of the gas turbine, including control structure and the design of controller in the base of expounding the math model of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant. the simulation results show that the respond of the change of the gas turbine speed under the control algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive is ten second faster than that under the PID control algorithm, and the output value of the gas turbine speed under the PID control algorithm is 1%-2% higher than that under the control slgorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive. It shows that the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive can better control the output of the speed of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant and get the better control effect. (authors)

  8. File Specification for the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, Ganymed Release Non-Hydrostatic 7-km Global Mesoscale Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Arlindo M.; Putman, William; Nattala, J.

    2014-01-01

    This document describes the gridded output files produced by a two-year global, non-hydrostatic mesoscale simulation for the period 2005-2006 produced with the non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), O3, CO and CO2. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic sources. A description of the GEOS-5 model configuration used for this simulation can be found in Putman et al. (2014). The simulation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 7 km using a cubed-sphere horizontal grid with 72 vertical levels, extending up to to 0.01 hPa (approximately 80 km). For user convenience, all data products are generated on two logically rectangular longitude-latitude grids: a full-resolution 0.0625 deg grid that approximately matches the native cubed-sphere resolution, and another 0.5 deg reduced-resolution grid. The majority of the full-resolution data products are instantaneous with some fields being time-averaged. The reduced-resolution datasets are mostly time-averaged, with some fields being instantaneous. Hourly data intervals are used for the reduced-resolution datasets, while 30-minute intervals are used for the full-resolution products. All full-resolution output is on the model's native 72-layer hybrid sigma-pressure vertical grid, while the reduced-resolution output is given on native vertical levels and on 48 pressure surfaces extending up to 0.02 hPa. Section 4 presents additional details on horizontal and vertical grids. Information of the model surface representation can be found in Appendix B. The GEOS-5 product is organized into file collections that are described in detail in Appendix C. Additional

  9. Modelling, interpolation and stochastic simulation in space and time of global solar radiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bechini, L.; Ducco, G.; Donatelli, M.; Stein, A.

    2000-01-01

    Global solar radiation data used as daily inputs for most cropping systems and water budget models are frequently available from only a few weather stations and over short periods of time. To overcome this limitation, the Campbell–Donatelli model relates daily maximum and minimum air temperatures to

  10. Simulated Stochastic Approximation Annealing for Global Optimization With a Square-Root Cooling Schedule

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Cheng, Yichen; Lin, Guang

    2014-01-01

    cooling schedule, for example, a square-root cooling schedule, while guaranteeing the global optima to be reached when the temperature tends to zero. The new algorithm has been tested on a few benchmark optimization problems, including feed-forward neural

  11. Simulating awareness in global software engineering: a comparative analysis of Scrum and Agile Service Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tamburri, D.A.; Razo Zapata, I.S.; Fernandez, H.; Tedeschi, C.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract—Global software engineering (GSE) is a business strategy to realize a business idea (i.e. the development project) faster, through round-the-clock productivity. However, GSE creates a volatile and unstable process in which many actors interact together against unpredictable premises (e.g.

  12. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  13. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  14. B33C-0612: Evaluation of Simulated Biospheric Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Atmospheric Concentrations Using Global in Situ Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sajeev; Johnson, Matthew S.; Potter, Christopher S.; Genovese, Vanessa

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in

  15. The "Grey Zone" cold air outbreak global model intercomparison: A cross evaluation using large-eddy simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomassini, Lorenzo; Field, Paul R.; Honnert, Rachel; Malardel, Sylvie; McTaggart-Cowan, Ron; Saitou, Kei; Noda, Akira T.; Seifert, Axel

    2017-03-01

    A stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition as observed in a cold air outbreak over the North Atlantic Ocean is compared in global climate and numerical weather prediction models and a large-eddy simulation model as part of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation "Grey Zone" project. The focus of the project is to investigate to what degree current convection and boundary layer parameterizations behave in a scale-adaptive manner in situations where the model resolution approaches the scale of convection. Global model simulations were performed at a wide range of resolutions, with convective parameterizations turned on and off. The models successfully simulate the transition between the observed boundary layer structures, from a well-mixed stratocumulus to a deeper, partly decoupled cumulus boundary layer. There are indications that surface fluxes are generally underestimated. The amount of both cloud liquid water and cloud ice, and likely precipitation, are under-predicted, suggesting deficiencies in the strength of vertical mixing in shear-dominated boundary layers. But also regulation by precipitation and mixed-phase cloud microphysical processes play an important role in the case. With convection parameterizations switched on, the profiles of atmospheric liquid water and cloud ice are essentially resolution-insensitive. This, however, does not imply that convection parameterizations are scale-aware. Even at the highest resolutions considered here, simulations with convective parameterizations do not converge toward the results of convection-off experiments. Convection and boundary layer parameterizations strongly interact, suggesting the need for a unified treatment of convective and turbulent mixing when addressing scale-adaptivity.

  16. Local and global eulerian gyrokinetic simulations of microturbulence in realistic geometry with applications to the TCV Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapillonne, X.

    2010-04-01

    In magnetically confined fusion devices, the energy and particle transport is significantly larger than expected from purely collisional processes. This degraded confinement mostly results from small-scale turbulence and prevents from reaching self-sustained burning plasma conditions in present day experiments. A better understanding of these nonlinear phenomena is therefore of key importance on the way towards controlled fusion. The small-scale microinstabilities and associated turbulence are investigated for Tokamak plasmas by means of numerical simulations in the frame of the gyrokinetic theory. This model describes the evolution of the particle distribution functions in phase space together with self-consistent electromagnetic fields, while neglecting the fast motion associated with the Larmor orbit of particles around the magnetic field lines. In the course of this thesis work, substantial modifications to the existing Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE have been carried out in collaboration with the Max-Planck- Institute f¨ur Plasmaphysik in Garching, Germany. The code has been extended from a local approximation, which only considers a reduced volume of a fusion plasma, to a global version which fully includes radial temperature and density profiles as well as radial magnetic equilibrium variations. To this end, the gyrokinetic equations have been formulated for general magnetic geometry, keeping radial variations of equilibrium quantities, and considering field aligned coordinates, suitable for their numerical implementation. The numerical treatment of the radial direction has been modified from a Fourier representation in the local approach to real space in the global code. This has in particular required to adapt the radial derivatives, the field solver, and to implement a real space dealiasing scheme for the treatment of the nonlinearity. A heat source was in addition introduced to allow for steady state global nonlinear simulations. An important part of

  17. Forcing of global ocean models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Rafael; Boening, Claus

    2015-04-01

    Current practice in the atmospheric forcing of ocean model simulations can lead to unphysical behaviours. The problem lies in the bulk formulation of the turbulent air-sea fluxes in conjunction with a prescribed, and unresponsive, atmospheric state as given, e.g., by reanalysis products. This forcing formulation corresponds to assuming an atmosphere with infinite heat capacity, and effectively damps SST anomalies even on basin scales. It thus curtails an important negative feedback between meridional ocean heat transport and SST in the North Atlantic, rendering simulations of the AMOC in such models excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes. As a consequence, such simulations are known for spurious drift behaviors which can only partially controlled by introducing some (and sometimes strong) unphysical restoring of sea surface salinity. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem by including some simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (AML) which allows a feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the surface fluxes. We here present simulations with a simple, only thermally active AML formulation (based on the 'CheapAML' proposed by Deremble et al., 2013) implemented in a global model configuration based on NEMO (ORCA05). In a suite of experiments building on the CORE-bulk forcing methodology, we examine some general features of the AML-solutions (in which only the winds are prescribed) in comparison to solutions with a prescribed atmosperic state. The focus is on the North Atlantic, where we find that the adaptation of the atmospheric temperature the simulated ocean state can lead to strong local modifications in the surface heat fluxes in frontal regions (e.g., the 'Northwest Corner'). We particularly assess the potential of the AML-forcing concept for obtaining AMOC-simulations with reduced spurious drift, without

  18. Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

    2017-08-23

    Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.

  19. Global motions exhibited by proteins in micro- to milliseconds simulations concur with anisotropic network model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gur, M.; Zomot, E.; Bahar, I.

    2013-09-01

    The Anton supercomputing technology recently developed for efficient molecular dynamics simulations permits us to examine micro- to milli-second events at full atomic resolution for proteins in explicit water and lipid bilayer. It also permits us to investigate to what extent the collective motions predicted by network models (that have found broad use in molecular biophysics) agree with those exhibited by full-atomic long simulations. The present study focuses on Anton trajectories generated for two systems: the bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, and an archaeal aspartate transporter, GltPh. The former, a thoroughly studied system, helps benchmark the method of comparative analysis, and the latter provides new insights into the mechanism of function of glutamate transporters. The principal modes of motion derived from both simulations closely overlap with those predicted for each system by the anisotropic network model (ANM). Notably, the ANM modes define the collective mechanisms, or the pathways on conformational energy landscape, that underlie the passage between the crystal structure and substates visited in simulations. In particular, the lowest frequency ANM modes facilitate the conversion between the most probable substates, lending support to the view that easy access to functional substates is a robust determinant of evolutionarily selected native contact topology.

  20. A Global Three-Dimensional Radiation Hydrodynamic Simulation of a Self-Gravitating Accretion Disk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, Rebecca; Vogeley, Michael S.; McMillan, Stephen; Boyd, Patricia

    2018-01-01

    We present three-dimensional, radiation hydrodynamic simulations of initially thin accretion disks with self-gravity using the grid-based code PLUTO. We produce simulated light curves and spectral energy distributions and compare to observational data of X-ray binary (XRB) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability. These simulations are of interest for modeling the role of radiation in accretion physics across decades of mass and frequency. In particular, the characteristics of the time variability in various bandwidths can probe the timescales over which different physical processes dominate the accretion flow. For example, in the case of some XRBs, superorbital periods much longer than the companion orbital period have been observed. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) calculations have shown that irradiation-driven warping could be the mechanism underlying these long periods. In the case of AGN, irradiation-driven warping is also predicted to occur in addition to strong outflows originating from thermal and radiation pressure driving forces, which are important processes in understanding feedback and star formation in active galaxies. We compare our simulations to various toy models via traditional time series analysis of our synthetic and observed light curves.

  1. Global sensitivity analysis for UNSATCHEM simulations of crop production with degraded waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    One strategy for maintaining irrigated agricultural productivity in the face of diminishing resource availability is to make greater use of marginal quality waters and lands. A key to sustaining systems using degraded irrigation waters is salinity management. Advanced simulation models and decision ...

  2. The influence of nepheloid layers on global model simulations of 231Pa and 230Th.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, C.; Plancherel, Y.; Khatiwala, S.; Anderson, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    231Pa and 230Th in the ocean are produced at a constant ratio by Uranium decay but adsorption onto particles removes these tracers differentially. This fractionation process makes it possible to use the elemental 231Pa/230Th ratio as a paleoceanography proxy, frequently used for deriving the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The removal process, however, is further complicated by the abundance and composition of the available particle types. Understanding how dissolved tracers interact with the particle field in the ocean is key to better understand the biogeochemical cycling of these particle-reactive elements and their use as a flux tracer in present and past oceans. We here present simulations of the 231Pa/230Th ratio using the Transport Matrix Method (TMM, Khatiwala, 2007), focusing especially on the role of the nepheloid layer in controlling the distribution of these radiotracers. The model simulates each tracer separately, with advective-diffusive transport based on the ECCO ocean state estimate (Stammer et al., 2004). Sources include production by Uranium decay and dust dissolution. Radioactive decay and importantly, reversible scavenging and sedimentation are the main sinks that control the removal of the radiotracers. Similar to previous studies, we consider particle fields consisting of calcium carbonate, opal, particle organic matter, and dust. A novelty is that we explicitly consider the influence of an additional bottom particle layer (nepheloid). Simulations that include a nepheloid layer produce vertical profiles that better fit the observed distribution of 230Th and 231Pa. Specifically, observational data in the South Atlantic and eastern South Pacific indicate a mid-depth inflection (for both Pa and Th), a feature that can only be obtained if a nepheloid layer is included in the simulation. Our simulations reinforce the idea that nepheloid layers play an important role in Pa and Th cycling in the ocean (Deng et al., 2014

  3. Acoustic wave simulation using an overset grid for the global monitoring system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushida, N.; Le Bras, R.

    2017-12-01

    The International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has been monitoring hydro-acoustic and infrasound waves over the globe. Because of the complex natures of the oceans and the atmosphere, computer simulation can play an important role in understanding the observed signals. In this regard, methods which depend on partial differential equations and require minimum modelling, are preferable. So far, to our best knowledge, acoustic wave propagation simulations based on partial differential equations on such a large scale have not been performed (pp 147 - 161 of ref [1], [2]). The main difficulties in building such simulation codes are: (1) considering the inhomogeneity of medium including background flows, (2) high aspect ratio of computational domain, (3) stability during long time integration. To overcome these difficulties, we employ a two-dimensional finite different (FDM) scheme on spherical coordinates with the Yin-Yang overset grid[3] solving the governing equation of acoustic waves introduces by Ostashev et. al.[4]. The comparison with real recording examples in hydro-acoustic will be presented at the conference. [1] Paul C. Etter: Underwater Acoustic Modeling and Simulation, Fourth Edition, CRC Press, 2013. [2] LIAN WANG et. al.: REVIEW OF UNDERWATER ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION MODELS, NPL Report AC 12, 2014. [3] A. Kageyama and T. Sato: "Yin-Yang grid": An overset grid in spherical geometry, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 5, Q09005, 2004. [4] Vladimir E. Ostashev et. al: Equations for finite-difference, time-domain simulation of sound propagation in moving inhomogeneous media and numerical implementation, Acoustical Society of America. DOI: 10.1121/1.1841531, 2005.

  4. Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes. Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, Christian; Meyer, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO 2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a far-reaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a 'drop in the bucket', which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2 target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used. (author)

  5. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO{sub 2} transient. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-07-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report.

  6. Simulations of the global carbon cycle and anthropogenic CO2 transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmiento, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    This research focuses on improving the understanding of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide transient using observations and models of the past and present. In addition, an attempt is made to develop an ability to predict the future of the carbon cycle in response to continued anthropogenic perturbations and climate change. Three aspects of the anthropogenic carbon budget were investigated: (1) the globally integrated budget at the present time; (2) the time history of the carbon budget; and (3) the spatial distribution of carbon fluxes. One of the major activities of this study was the participation in the model comparison study of Enting, et al. [1994] carried out in preparation for the IPCC 1994 report

  7. Deficits in Attention and Visual Processing but not Global Cognition Predict Simulated Driving Errors in Drivers Diagnosed With Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Stephanie; Stinchcombe, Arne; Gagnon, Sylvain

    2016-06-01

    This study sought to predict driving performance of drivers with Alzheimer's disease (AD) using measures of attention, visual processing, and global cognition. Simulated driving performance of individuals with mild AD (n = 20) was contrasted with performance of a group of healthy controls (n = 21). Performance on measures of global cognitive function and specific tests of attention and visual processing were examined in relation to simulated driving performance. Strong associations were observed between measures of attention, notably the Test of Everyday Attention (sustained attention; r = -.651, P = .002) and the Useful Field of View (r = .563, P = .010), and driving performance among drivers with mild AD. The Visual Object and Space Perception Test-object was significantly correlated with the occurrence of crashes (r = .652, P = .002). Tests of global cognition did not correlate with simulated driving outcomes. The results suggest that professionals exercise caution when extrapolating driving performance based on global cognitive indicators. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. LACAN Code for global simulation of SILVA laser isotope separation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quaegebeur, J.P.; Goldstein, S.

    1991-01-01

    Functions used for the definition of a SILVA separator require quite a lot of dimensional and operating parameters. Sizing a laser isotope separation plant needs the determination of these parameters for optimization. In the LACAN simulation code, each elementary physical process is described by simplified models. An example is given for a uranium isotope separation plant whose separation power is optimized with 6 parameters [fr

  9. Structure of the lunar wake: Two-dimensional global hybrid simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trávníček, Pavel; Hellinger, Petr; Schriver, D.; Bale, S. D.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 32, - (2005), L06102/1-L06102/4 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA205/05/1011 Grant - others:ESA(XE) PRODEX 14529; NSF(US) INT- 0010111; NASA (US) NAG5-11804 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : hybrid simulations * lunar wake Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 2.491, year: 2005

  10. The gyro-radius scaling of ion thermal transport from global numerical simulations of ITG turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ottaviani, M.; Manfredi, G.

    1998-12-01

    A three-dimensional, fluid code is used to study the scaling of ion thermal transport caused by Ion-Temperature-Gradient-Driven (ITG) turbulence. The code includes toroidal effects and is capable of simulating the whole torus. It is found that both close to the ITG threshold and well above threshold, the thermal transport and the turbulence structures exhibit a gyro-Bohm scaling, at least for plasmas with moderate poloidal flow. (author)

  11. Low-latitude plasma drifts from a simulation of the global atmospheric dynamo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crain, D.J.; Heelis, R.A.; Bailey, G.J.; Richmond, A.D.

    1993-01-01

    The authors work with a dynamo model to address questions about plasma drifts in the E region, primarily at low latitudes. Tidal winds have been known to have a big influence on electric fields in the E region, and magnetic fields and ion drifts in the equatorial F region. Recent work has centered on self consistency in simulations, using realistic wind distributions, 3-D current distributions, and more accurate measures of the currents and conductivities. The wind dynamo in the ionosphere is well accepted as the main source of electric fields in the low and mid latitudes. The authors present a self consistent model of the plasma distribution and the dynamo driven electric potential distribution. Their results are compared with other simulations. A major concern in their model was reproducing ion drift observations in the equatorial region. Their conclusion is that the F region plays a significant role in the low latitude dyanamo effects, much larger than was previously assumed. When they build into their model realistic ionospheric conditions, allow for appropriate wind distributions, and allow a self consistent redistribution of plasma in the night, they find the model simulates measured ion drifts more closely. Their model is normalized against observations at Jicamarca. By allowing E x B drifts in the ionosphere, and F region zonal winds they can reproduce many of the night changes in the ion drifts at Jicamarca

  12. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  13. A 4.5 km resolution Arctic Ocean simulation with the global multi-resolution model FESOM 1.4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang; Wekerle, Claudia; Danilov, Sergey; Wang, Xuezhu; Jung, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    In the framework of developing a global modeling system which can facilitate modeling studies on Arctic Ocean and high- to midlatitude linkage, we evaluate the Arctic Ocean simulated by the multi-resolution Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). To explore the value of using high horizontal resolution for Arctic Ocean modeling, we use two global meshes differing in the horizontal resolution only in the Arctic Ocean (24 km vs. 4.5 km). The high resolution significantly improves the model's representation of the Arctic Ocean. The most pronounced improvement is in the Arctic intermediate layer, in terms of both Atlantic Water (AW) mean state and variability. The deepening and thickening bias of the AW layer, a common issue found in coarse-resolution simulations, is significantly alleviated by using higher resolution. The topographic steering of the AW is stronger and the seasonal and interannual temperature variability along the ocean bottom topography is enhanced in the high-resolution simulation. The high resolution also improves the ocean surface circulation, mainly through a better representation of the narrow straits in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The representation of CAA throughflow not only influences the release of water masses through the other gateways but also the circulation pathways inside the Arctic Ocean. However, the mean state and variability of Arctic freshwater content and the variability of freshwater transport through the Arctic gateways appear not to be very sensitive to the increase in resolution employed here. By highlighting the issues that are independent of model resolution, we address that other efforts including the improvement of parameterizations are still required.

  14. Simulated global-scale response of the climate system to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claussen, M. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, P-O Box 601553, 14415 Potsdam (Germany); Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Gerstengarbe, F.W.; Werner, P. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P-O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2003-11-01

    By using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we have studied the global-scale response of the glacial climate system during marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 to perturbations at high northern latitudes and the tropics. These perturbations include changes in inland-ice volume over North America, in freshwater flux into the northern North Atlantic and in surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific. The global pattern of temperature series resulting from an experiment in which perturbations of inland ice and freshwater budget are imposed at high northern latitudes only, agree with paleoclimatic reconstructions. In particular, a positive correlation of temperature variations near Greenland and variations in all regions of the Northern Hemisphere and some parts of the southern tropics is found. Over the southern oceans a weak negative correlation appears which is strongest at a time lag of approximately 500 years. Further experimentation with prescribed temperature anomalies applied to the tropical Pacific suggests that perturbation of tropical sea-surface temperatures and hence, the tropical water cycle, is unlikely to have triggered Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events. However, together with random freshwater anomalies prescribed at high northern latitudes, tropical perturbations would be able to synchronize the occurrence of D/O events via the mechanism of stochastic resonance. (orig.)

  15. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation

  16. Global Rating Scales and Motion Analysis Are Valid Proficiency Metrics in Virtual and Benchtop Knee Arthroscopy Simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Justues; Banaszek, Daniel C; Gambrel, Jason; Bardana, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Work-hour restrictions and fatigue management strategies in surgical training programs continue to evolve in an effort to improve the learning environment and promote safer patient care. In response, training programs must reevaluate how various teaching modalities such as simulation can augment the development of surgical competence in trainees. For surgical simulators to be most useful, it is important to determine whether surgical proficiency can be reliably differentiated using them. To our knowledge, performance on both virtual and benchtop arthroscopy simulators has not been concurrently assessed in the same subjects. (1) Do global rating scales and procedure time differentiate arthroscopic expertise in virtual and benchtop knee models? (2) Can commercially available built-in motion analysis metrics differentiate arthroscopic expertise? (3) How well are performance measures on virtual and benchtop simulators correlated? (4) Are these metrics sensitive enough to differentiate by year of training? A cross-sectional study of 19 subjects (four medical students, 12 residents, and three staff) were recruited and divided into 11 novice arthroscopists (student to Postgraduate Year [PGY] 3) and eight proficient arthroscopists (PGY 4 to staff) who completed a diagnostic arthroscopy and loose-body retrieval in both virtual and benchtop knee models. Global rating scales (GRS), procedure times, and motion analysis metrics were used to evaluate performance. The proficient group scored higher on virtual (14 ± 6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10-18] versus 36 ± 5 [95% CI, 32-40], p virtual scope (579 ±169 [95% CI, 466-692] versus 358 ± 178 [95% CI, 210-507] seconds, p = 0.02) and benchtop knee scope + probe (480 ± 160 [95% CI, 373-588] versus 277 ± 64 [95% CI, 224-330] seconds, p = 0.002). The built-in motion analysis metrics also distinguished novices from proficient arthroscopists using the self-generated virtual loose body retrieval task scores (4 ± 1 [95% CI, 3

  17. Global and kinetic MHD simulation by the Gpic-MHD code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naitou, Hiroshi; Yamada, Yusuke; Kajiwara, Kenji; Lee, Wei-li; Tokuda, Shinji; Yagi, Masatoshi

    2011-01-01

    In order to implement large-scale and high-beta tokamak simulation, a new algorithm of the electromagnetic gyrokinetic PIC (particle-in-cell) code was proposed and installed on the Gpic-MHD code [Gyrokinetic PIC code for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation]. In the new algorithm, the vortex equation and the generalized ohm's law along the magnetic field are derived from the basic equations of the gyrokinetic Vlasov, Poisson, and Ampere system and are used to describe the spatio-temporal evolution of the field quantities of the electrostatic potential φ and the longitudinal component of the vector potential A z . Particle information is mainly used to estimate second order moments in the generalized ohm's law. Because the lower order moments of the charge density and the longitudinal current density are not used explicitly to determine φ and A z , the numerical noise induced by the discreteness of particle quantities reduces drastically. Another advantage of the algorithm is that the longitudinal induced electric field, E Tz =-∂A z /∂t, is explicitly estimated by the generalized ohm's law and used in the equations of motion. The particle velocities along the magnetic field are used (v z -formulation) instead of generalized momentums (p z -formulation), hence there is no problem of 'cancellation', which appear when estimating A z from the Ampere's law in the p z -formulation. The successful simulation of the collisionless internal kink mode by new Gpic-MHD with the realistic values of the large-scale and high-beta, revealed the usefulness of the new algorithm. (author)

  18. Global Hybrid Simulation of Alfvenic Waves Associated with Magnetotail Reconnection and Fast Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Lin, Y.; Wang, X.; Perez, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Alfvenic fluctuations have been observed near the magnetotail plasma sheet boundary layer associated with fast flows. In this presentation, we use the Auburn 3-D Global Hybrid code (ANGIE3D) to investigate the generation and propagation of Alfvenic waves in the magnetotail. Shear Alfven waves and kinetic Alfven waves (KAWs) are found to be generated in magnetic reconnection in the plasma sheet as well as in the dipole-like field region of the magnetosphere, carrying Poynting flux along magnetic field lines toward the ionosphere, and the wave structure is strongly altered by the flow braking in the tail. The 3-D structure of the wave electromagnetic field and the associated parallel currents in reconnection and the dipole-like field region is presented. The Alfvenic waves exhibit a turbulence spectrum. The roles of these Alfvenic waves in ion heating is discussed.

  19. An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

    2003-12-01

    Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

  20. Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Ngada, Narcisse

    2015-06-15

    The complexity and cost of building and running high-power electrical systems make the use of simulations unavoidable. The simulations available today provide great understanding about how systems really operate. This paper helps the reader to gain an insight into simulation in the field of power converters for particle accelerators. Starting with the definition and basic principles of simulation, two simulation types, as well as their leading tools, are presented: analog and numerical simulations. Some practical applications of each simulation type are also considered. The final conclusion then summarizes the main important items to keep in mind before opting for a simulation tool or before performing a simulation.

  1. Response of permafrost to projected climate change: Results from global offline model simulations with JSBACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. In order to assess the response of permafrost to projected climate change for the 21st century, the land surface scheme of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, has recently been equipped with the important physical processes for permafrost studies, and was driven globally with bias corrected climate data, thereby spanning a period from 1850 until 2100. The applied land surface scheme JSBACH now considers the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. To address the uncertainty range arising through different greenhouse gas concentrations as well as through different climate realisations when using various climate models, combinations of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two GCMs were used as driving data. In order to focus only on the climatic impact on permafrost, effects due to feedbacks between climate and permafrost (namely via carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere) are excluded in the experiments

  2. The simulation of the transport of aircraft emissions by a three-dimensional global model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. M. Velders

    1994-04-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional off-line tracer transport model coupled to the ECMWF analyses has been used to study the transport of trace gases in the atmosphere. The model gives a reasonable description of their general transport in the atmosphere. The simulation of the transport of aircraft emissions (as NOx has been studied as well as the transport of passive tracers injected at different altitudes in the North Atlantic flight corridor. A large zonal variation in the NOx concentrations as well as large seasonal and yearly variations was found. The altitude of the flight corridor influences the amount of tracers transported into the troposphere and stratosphere to a great extent.

  3. McGill wetland model: evaluation of a peatland carbon simulator developed for global assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. St-Hilaire

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed the McGill Wetland Model (MWM based on the general structure of the Peatland Carbon Simulator (PCARS and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. Three major changes were made to PCARS: (1 the light use efficiency model of photosynthesis was replaced with a biogeochemical description of photosynthesis; (2 the description of autotrophic respiration was changed to be consistent with the formulation of photosynthesis; and (3 the cohort, multilayer soil respiration model was changed to a simple one box peat decomposition model divided into an oxic and anoxic zones by an effective water table, and a one-year residence time litter pool. MWM was then evaluated by comparing its output to the estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP, gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (ER from 8 years of continuous measurements at the Mer Bleue peatland, a raised ombrotrophic bog located in southern Ontario, Canada (index of agreement [dimensionless]: NEP = 0.80, GPP = 0.97, ER = 0.97; systematic RMSE [g C m−2 d−1]: NEP = 0.12, GPP = 0.07, ER = 0.14; unsystematic RMSE: NEP = 0.15, GPP = 0.27, ER = 0.23. Simulated moss NPP approximates what would be expected for a bog peatland, but shrub NPP appears to be underestimated. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the model output did not change greatly due to variations in water table because of offsetting responses in production and respiration, but that even a modest temperature increase could lead to converting the bog from a sink to a source of CO2. General weaknesses and further developments of MWM are discussed.

  4. Statistical analysis of simulated global soil moisture and its memory in an ensemble of CMIP5 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiß, Felix; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Soil moisture and its memory can have a strong impact on near surface temperature and precipitation and have the potential to promote severe heat waves, dry spells and floods. To analyze how soil moisture is simulated in recent general circulation models (GCMs), soil moisture data from a 23 model ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined for the period 1979 to 2008 with regard to parameterization and statistical characteristics. With respect to soil moisture processes, the models vary in their maximum soil and root depth, the number of soil layers, the water-holding capacity, and the ability to simulate freezing which all together leads to very different soil moisture characteristics. Differences in the water-holding capacity are resulting in deviations in the global median soil moisture of more than one order of magnitude between the models. In contrast, the variance shows similar absolute values when comparing the models to each other. Thus, the input and output rates by precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are computed by the atmospheric component of the models, have to be in the same range. Most models simulate great variances in the monsoon areas of the tropics and north western U.S., intermediate variances in Europe and eastern U.S., and low variances in the Sahara, continental Asia, and central and western Australia. In general, the variance decreases with latitude over the high northern latitudes. As soil moisture trends in the models were found to be negligible, the soil moisture anomalies were calculated by subtracting the 30 year monthly climatology from the data. The length of the memory is determined from the soil moisture anomalies by calculating the first insignificant autocorrelation for ascending monthly lags (insignificant autocorrelation folding time). The models show a great spread of autocorrelation length from a few months in

  5. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  6. CORONAL JETS SIMULATED WITH THE GLOBAL ALFVÉN WAVE SOLAR MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester IV, W. B.; Holst, B. van der; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I. [Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K., E-mail: judithsz@umich.edu [Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2017-01-10

    This paper describes a numerical modeling study of coronal jets to understand their effects on the global corona and their contribution to the solar wind. We implement jets into a well-established three-dimensional, two-temperature magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar corona model employing Alfvén-wave dissipation to produce a realistic solar-wind background. The jets are produced by positioning a compact magnetic dipole under the solar surface and rotating the boundary plasma around the dipole's magnetic axis. The moving plasma drags the magnetic field lines along with it, ultimately leading to a reconnection-driven jet similar to that described by Pariat et al. We compare line-of-sight synthetic images to multiple jet observations at EUV and X-ray bands, and find very close matches in terms of physical structure, dynamics, and emission. Key contributors to this agreement are the greatly enhanced plasma density and temperature in our jets compared to previous models. These enhancements arise from the comprehensive thermodynamic model that we use and, also, our inclusion of a dense chromosphere at the base of our jet-generating regions. We further find that the large-scale corona is affected significantly by the outwardly propagating torsional Alfvén waves generated by our polar jet, across 40° in latitude and out to 24 R {sub ⊙}. We estimate that polar jets contribute only a few percent to the steady-state solar-wind energy outflow.

  7. Application of time transfer functions to Gaia's global astrometry. Validation on DPAC simulated Gaia-like observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertone, Stefano; Vecchiato, Alberto; Bucciarelli, Beatrice; Crosta, Mariateresa; Lattanzi, Mario G.; Bianchi, Luca; Angonin, Marie-Christine; Le Poncin-Lafitte, Christophe

    2017-12-01

    Context. A key objective of the ESA Gaia satellite is the realization of a quasi-inertial reference frame at visual wavelengths by means of global astrometric techniques. This requires accurate mathematical and numerical modeling of relativistic light propagation, as well as double-blind-like procedures for the internal validation of the results, before they are released to the scientific community at large. Aims: We aim to specialize the time transfer functions (TTF) formalism to the case of the Gaia observer and prove its applicability to the task of global sphere reconstruction (GSR), in anticipation of its inclusion in the GSR system, already featuring the Relativistic Astrometric MODel (RAMOD) suite, as an additional semi-external validation of the forthcoming Gaia baseline astrometric solutions. Methods: We extended the current GSR framework and software infrastructure (GSR2) to include TTF relativistic observation equations compatible with Gaia's operations. We used simulated data generated by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC) to obtain different least-squares estimations of the full (five-parameter) stellar spheres and gauge results. These were compared to analogous solutions obtained with the current RAMOD model in GSR2 (RAMOD@GSR2) and to the catalog generated with the Gaia RElativistic Model (GREM), the model baselined for Gaia and used to generate the DPAC synthetic data. Results: Linearized least-squares TTF solutions are based on spheres of about 132 000 primary stars uniformly distributed on the sky and simulated observations spanning the entire 5 yr range of Gaia's nominal operational lifetime. The statistical properties of the results compare well with those of GREM. Finally, comparisons to RAMOD@GSR2 solutions confirmed the known lower accuracy of that model and allowed us to establish firm limits on the quality of the linearization point outside of which an iteration for non-linearity is required for its proper convergence

  8. A highly scalable particle tracking algorithm using partitioned global address space (PGAS) programming for extreme-scale turbulence simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buaria, D.; Yeung, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    A new parallel algorithm utilizing a partitioned global address space (PGAS) programming model to achieve high scalability is reported for particle tracking in direct numerical simulations of turbulent fluid flow. The work is motivated by the desire to obtain Lagrangian information necessary for the study of turbulent dispersion at the largest problem sizes feasible on current and next-generation multi-petaflop supercomputers. A large population of fluid particles is distributed among parallel processes dynamically, based on instantaneous particle positions such that all of the interpolation information needed for each particle is available either locally on its host process or neighboring processes holding adjacent sub-domains of the velocity field. With cubic splines as the preferred interpolation method, the new algorithm is designed to minimize the need for communication, by transferring between adjacent processes only those spline coefficients determined to be necessary for specific particles. This transfer is implemented very efficiently as a one-sided communication, using Co-Array Fortran (CAF) features which facilitate small data movements between different local partitions of a large global array. The cost of monitoring transfer of particle properties between adjacent processes for particles migrating across sub-domain boundaries is found to be small. Detailed benchmarks are obtained on the Cray petascale supercomputer Blue Waters at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. For operations on the particles in a 81923 simulation (0.55 trillion grid points) on 262,144 Cray XE6 cores, the new algorithm is found to be orders of magnitude faster relative to a prior algorithm in which each particle is tracked by the same parallel process at all times. This large speedup reduces the additional cost of tracking of order 300 million particles to just over 50% of the cost of computing the Eulerian velocity field at this scale. Improving support of PGAS models on

  9. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  10. Delivering Value In A Global Aerospace Manufacturer Through The Effective Use Of Numerical Process Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, M. J.; Walløe, S. J.

    2004-06-01

    Numerical models are used extensively in the aerospace sector to identify appropriate manufacturing parameters, and to minimize the risk associated with new product introduction and manufacturing change. This usage is equally prevalent in original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and in their supply chains. The wide range of manufacturing processes and production environments involved, coupled with the varying degrees of technology maturity associated with numerical models of different processes leads to a situation of significant complexity from the OEM perspective. In addition, the intended use of simulation technology can vary considerably between applications, from simple geometric assessment of die shape at one extreme, to full process design or development at the other. Consequently there is an increasing trend towards multi-scale modelling, i.e. the use of several different model types, with differing attributes in terms of accuracy and speed to support a range of different new product introduction decisions. This makes the allocation of appropriate levels of activity to the research and implementation of new capabilities a difficult problem. This paper uses a number of industrial cases studies to illustrate a framework for making such allocation decisions such that value to the OEM is maximized, and investigates how such a framework is likely to shift over the next few years based on technological developments.

  11. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  12. Automated and dynamic scheduling for geodetic VLBI - A simulation study for AuScope and global networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iles, E. J.; McCallum, L.; Lovell, J. E. J.; McCallum, J. N.

    2018-02-01

    As we move into the next era of geodetic VLBI, the scheduling process is one focus for improvement in terms of increased flexibility and the ability to react with changing conditions. A range of simulations were conducted to ascertain the impact of scheduling on geodetic results such as Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs) and station coordinates. The potential capabilities of new automated scheduling modes were also simulated, using the so-called 'dynamic scheduling' technique. The primary aim was to improve efficiency for both cost and time without losing geodetic precision, particularly to maximise the uses of the Australian AuScope VLBI array. We show that short breaks in observation will not significantly degrade the results of a typical 24 h experiment, whereas simply shortening observing time degrades precision exponentially. We also confirm the new automated, dynamic scheduling mode is capable of producing the same standard of result as a traditional schedule, with close to real-time flexibility. Further, it is possible to use the dynamic scheduler to augment the 3 station Australian AuScope array and thereby attain EOPs of the current global precision with only intermittent contribution from 2 additional stations. We thus confirm automated, dynamic scheduling bears great potential for flexibility and automation in line with aims for future continuous VLBI operations.

  13. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  14. The simulated response of dimethylsulfide production in the Arctic Ocean to global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabric, Albert J.; Qu, Bo; Hirst, Anthony C.

    2005-01-01

    Sulfate aerosols (of both biogenic and anthropogenic origin) play a key role in the Earth's radiation balance both directly through scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation, and indirectly by modifying cloud microphysical properties. However, the uncertainties associated with radiative forcing of climate due to aerosols substantially exceed those associated with the greenhouse gases. The major source of sulfate aerosols in the remote marine atmosphere is the biogenic compound dimethylsulfide (DMS), which is ubiquitous in the world's oceans and is synthesized by plankton. Climate models point to significant future changes in sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean due to warming. This will have consequences for primary production and the sea-to-air flux of a number of biogenic compounds, including DMS. In this paper we discuss the impact of warming on the future production of DMS in the Arctic Ocean. A DMS production model has been calibrated to current climate conditions with satellite ocean colour data (SeaWiFS) using a genetic algorithm, an efficient non-derivative based optimization technique. We use the CSIRO Mk 2 climate model to force the DMS model under enhanced greenhouse climate conditions. We discuss the simulated change in DMS flux and its consequences for future aerosol production and the radiative budget of the Arctic. Significant decreases in sea-ice cover (by 18.5% annually and 61% in summer-autumn), increases in mean annual sea surface temperature of 1 deg C, and a decrease of mixed layer depth by 13% annually are predicted to result in annual DMS flux increases of over 80% by the time of equivalent CO 2 tripling (2080). Estimates of the impact of this increase in DMS emissions suggest significant changes to summer aerosol concentrations and the radiative balance in the Arctic region

  15. Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manabe, S.; Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.

    2004-01-01

    By use of a coupled ocean atmosphere-land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the "IS92a" scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.

  16. Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

  17. Use of human patient simulation and the situation awareness global assessment technique in practical trauma skills assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Michael P; Pace, David E; Hapgood, Joanne; Boone, Darrell C

    2006-11-01

    Situation awareness (SA) is defined as the perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, the comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their status in the near future. This construct is vital to decision making in intense, dynamic environments. It has been used in aviation as it relates to pilot performance, but has not been applied to medical education. The most widely used objective tool for measuring trainee SA is the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (SAGAT). The purpose of this study was to design and validate SAGAT for assessment of practical trauma skills, and to compare SAGAT results to traditional checklist style scoring. Using the Human Patient Simulator, we designed SAGAT for practical trauma skills assessment based on Advanced Trauma Life Support objectives. Sixteen subjects (four staff surgeons, four senior residents, four junior residents, and four medical students) participated in three scenarios each. They were assessed using SAGAT and traditional checklist assessment. A questionnaire was used to assess possible confounding factors in attaining SA and overall trainee satisfaction. SAGAT was found to show significant difference (analysis of variance; p level of training lending statistical support to construct validity. SAGAT was likewise found to display reliability (Cronbach's alpha 0.767), and significant scoring correlation with traditional checklist performance measures (Pearson's coefficient 0.806). The questionnaire revealed no confounding factors and universal satisfaction with the human patient simulator and SAGAT. SAGAT is a valid, reliable assessment tool for trauma trainees in the dynamic clinical environment created by human patient simulation. Information provided by SAGAT could provide specific feedback, direct individualized teaching, and support curriculum change. Introduction of SAGAT could improve the current assessment model for practical trauma education.

  18. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  19. On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.

    2015-12-01

    Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  20. The 3-D Tropical Convective Cloud Spectrum in AMIE Radar Observations and Global Climate Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, Courtney [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    2015-08-31

    During the three years of this grant performance, the PI and her research group have made a number of significant contributions towards determining properties of tropical deep convective clouds and how models depict and respond to the heating associated with tropical convective systems. The PI has also been an active ARM/ASR science team member, including playing a significant role in AMIE and GoAmazon2014/5. She served on the DOE ASR radar science steering committee and was a joint chair of the Mesoscale Convective Organization group under the Cloud Life Cycle working group. This grant has funded a number of graduate students, many of them women, and the PI and her group have presented their DOE-supported work at various universities and national meetings. The PI and her group participated in the AMIE (2011-12) and GoAmazon2014/5 (2014-15) DOE field deployments that occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean and Brazilian Amazon, respectively. AMIE observational results (DePasquale et al. 2014, Feng et al. 2014, Ahmed and Schumacher 2015) focus on the variation and possible importance of Kelvin waves in various phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), on the synergy of the different wavelength radars deployed on Addu Atoll, and on the importance of humidity thresholds in the tropics on stratiform rain production. Much of the PIs GoAmazon2014/5 results to date relate to overviews of the observations made during the field campaign (Martin et al. 2015, 2016; Fuentes et al. 2016), but also include the introduction of the descending arm and its link to ozone transport from the mid-troposphere to the surface (Gerken et al. 2016). Vertical motion and mass flux profiles from GoAmazon (Giangrande et al. 2016) also show interesting patterns between seasons and provide targets for model simulations. Results from TWP-ICE (Schumacher et al. 2015), which took place in Darwin, Australia in 2006 show that vertical velocity retrievals from the profilers provide structure to

  1. Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

  2. Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 1: Evaluation of regional and global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Chao; Morel, Béatrice; Wild, Martin; Pohl, Benjamin; Abiodun, Babatunde; Bessafi, Miloud

    2018-02-01

    This study evaluates the performance of climate models in reproducing surface solar radiation (SSR) over Southern Africa (SA) by validating five Regional Climate Models (RCM, including CCLM4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22T, RCA4 and REMO2009) that participated in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program over Africa (CORDEX-Africa) along with their ten driving General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 over SA. The model simulated SSR was thereby compared to reference data from ground-based measurements, satellite-derived products and reanalyses over the period 1990-2005. Results show that (1) the references obtained from satellite retrievals and reanalyses overall overestimate SSR by up to 10 W/m2 on average when compared to ground-based measurements from the Global Energy Balance Archive, which are located mainly over the eastern part of the southern African continent. (2) Compared to one of the satellite products (Surface Solar Radiation Data Set—Heliosat Edition 2; SARAH-2): GCMs overestimate SSR over SA in terms of their multi-model mean by about 1 W/m2 (compensation of opposite biases over sub-regions) and 7.5 W/m2 in austral summer and winter respectively; RCMs driven by GCMs show in their multimodel mean underestimations of SSR in both seasons with Mean Bias Errors (MBEs) of about - 30 W/m2 in austral summer and about - 14 W/m2 in winter compared to SARAH-2. This multi-model mean low bias is dominated by the simulations of the CCLM4, with negative biases up to - 76 W/m2 in summer and - 32 W/m2 in winter. (3) The discrepancies in the simulated SSR over SA are larger in the RCMs than in the GCMs. (4) In terms of trend during the "brightening" period 1990-2005, both GCMs and RCMs (driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA-Interim, short as ERAINT and GCMs) simulate an SSR trend of less than 1 W/m2 per decade. However, variations of SSR trend exist among different references data

  3. Advanced Variance Reduction for Global k-Eigenvalue Simulations in MCNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edward W. Larsen

    2008-06-01

    generations. The FMC method was developed only late in the project and has to date received limited testing. Current work, which is taking place after the conclusion of this project, involves further development and testing for more complex and realistic problems. We expect that the FMC method will become a practical tool for Monte Carlo criticality simulations.

  4. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  5. Preparing for Exascale: Towards convection-permitting, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzeller, Dominikus; Duda, Michael G.; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    With strong financial and political support from national and international initiatives, exascale computing is projected for the end of this decade. Energy requirements and physical limitations imply the use of accelerators and the scaling out to orders of magnitudes larger numbers of cores then today to achieve this milestone. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of these Exascale computing systems, existing applications need to undergo significant development. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric core, an ocean core, a land-ice core and a sea-ice core. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. Here, we present work towards the application of the atmospheric core (MPAS-A) on current and future high performance computing systems for problems at extreme scale. In particular, we address the issue of massively parallel I/O by extending the model to support the highly scalable SIONlib library. Using global uniform meshes with a convection-permitting resolution of 2-3km, we demonstrate the ability of MPAS-A to scale out to half a million cores while maintaining a high parallel efficiency. We also demonstrate the potential benefit of a hybrid parallelisation of the code (MPI/OpenMP) on the latest generation of Intel's Many Integrated Core Architecture, the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing.

  6. Numerical simulation and global linear stability analysis of low-Re flow past a heated circular cylinder

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-31

    We perform two-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes simulation and global linear stability analysis of flow past a heated circular cylinder to investigate the effect of aided buoyancy on the stabilization of the flow. The Reynolds number of the incoming flow is fixed at 100, and the Richardson number characterizing the buoyancy is varied from 0.00 (buoyancy-free case) to 0.10 at which the flow is still unsteady. We investigate the effect of aided buoyancy in stabilizing the wake flow, identify the temporal and spatial characteristics of the growth of the perturbation, and quantify the contributions from various terms comprising the perturbed kinetic energy budget. Numerical results reveal that the increasing Ri decreases the fluctuation magnitude of the characteristic quantities monotonically, and the momentum deficit in the wake flow decays rapidly so that the flow velocity recovers to that of the free-stream; the strain on the wake flow is reduced in the region where the perturbation is the most greatly amplified. Global stability analysis shows that the temporal growth rate of the perturbation decreases monotonically with Ri, reflecting the stabilization of the flow due to aided buoyancy. The perturbation grows most significantly in the free shear layer separated from the cylinder. As Ri increases, the location of maximum perturbation growth moves closer to the cylinder and the perturbation decays more rapidly in the far wake. The introduction of the aided buoyancy alters the base flow, and destabilizes the near wake shear layer mainly through the strain-induced transfer term and the pressure term of the perturbed kinetic energy, whereas the flow is stabilized in the far wake as the strain is alleviated. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Numerical simulation and global linear stability analysis of low-Re flow past a heated circular cylinder

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Wei; Samtaney, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    We perform two-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes simulation and global linear stability analysis of flow past a heated circular cylinder to investigate the effect of aided buoyancy on the stabilization of the flow. The Reynolds number of the incoming flow is fixed at 100, and the Richardson number characterizing the buoyancy is varied from 0.00 (buoyancy-free case) to 0.10 at which the flow is still unsteady. We investigate the effect of aided buoyancy in stabilizing the wake flow, identify the temporal and spatial characteristics of the growth of the perturbation, and quantify the contributions from various terms comprising the perturbed kinetic energy budget. Numerical results reveal that the increasing Ri decreases the fluctuation magnitude of the characteristic quantities monotonically, and the momentum deficit in the wake flow decays rapidly so that the flow velocity recovers to that of the free-stream; the strain on the wake flow is reduced in the region where the perturbation is the most greatly amplified. Global stability analysis shows that the temporal growth rate of the perturbation decreases monotonically with Ri, reflecting the stabilization of the flow due to aided buoyancy. The perturbation grows most significantly in the free shear layer separated from the cylinder. As Ri increases, the location of maximum perturbation growth moves closer to the cylinder and the perturbation decays more rapidly in the far wake. The introduction of the aided buoyancy alters the base flow, and destabilizes the near wake shear layer mainly through the strain-induced transfer term and the pressure term of the perturbed kinetic energy, whereas the flow is stabilized in the far wake as the strain is alleviated. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Marine N2O Emissions From Nitrification and Denitrification Constrained by Modern Observations and Projected in Multimillennial Global Warming Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, G.; Joos, F.

    2018-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone destructing agent; yet global estimates of N2O emissions are uncertain. Marine N2O stems from nitrification and denitrification processes which depend on organic matter cycling and dissolved oxygen (O2). We introduce N2O as an obligate intermediate product of denitrification and as an O2-dependent by-product from nitrification in the Bern3D ocean model. A large model ensemble is used to probabilistically constrain modern and to project marine N2O production for a low (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6) and high GHG (RCP8.5) scenario extended to A.D. 10,000. Water column N2O and surface ocean partial pressure N2O data serve as constraints in this Bayesian framework. The constrained median for modern N2O production is 4.5 (±1σ range: 3.0 to 6.1) Tg N yr-1, where 4.5% stems from denitrification. Modeled denitrification is 65.1 (40.9 to 91.6) Tg N yr-1, well within current estimates. For high GHG forcing, N2O production decreases by 7.7% over this century due to decreasing organic matter export and remineralization. Thereafter, production increases slowly by 21% due to widespread deoxygenation and high remineralization. Deoxygenation peaks in two millennia, and the global O2 inventory is reduced by a factor of 2 compared to today. Net denitrification is responsible for 7.8% of the long-term increase in N2O production. On millennial timescales, marine N2O emissions constitute a small, positive feedback to climate change. Our simulations reveal tight coupling between the marine carbon cycle, O2, N2O, and climate.

  9. Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-04-01

    The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

  10. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  11. Simulation of global sulfate distribution and the influence of effective cloud drop radii with a coupled photochemistry-sulfur cycle model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelofs, G.J.; Lelieveld, J.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    1998-01-01

    A sulfur cycle model is coupled to a global chemistry-climate model. The simulated surface sulfate concentrations are generally within a factor of 2 of observed concentrations, and display a realistic seasonality for most background locations. However, the model tends to underestimate sulfate and

  12. A compact skeletal mechanism for n -dodecane with optimized semi-global low-temperature chemistry for diesel engine simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Tong; Pei, Yuanjiang; Zhong, Bei-Jing; Som, Sibendu; Lu, Tianfeng; Luo, Kai Hong

    2017-03-01

    A skeletal mechanism with 54 species and 269 reactions was developed to predict pyrolysis and oxidation of n-dodecane as a diesel fuel surrogate involving both high-temperature (high-T) and low-temperature (low-T) conditions. The skeletal mechanism was developed from a semi-detailed mechanism developed at the University of Southern California (USC). Species and reactions for high-T pyrolysis and oxidation of C5-C12 were reduced by using reaction flow analysis (RFA), isomer lumping, and then merged into a skeletal C0-C4 core to form a high-T sub-mechanism. Species and lumped semi-global reactions for low-T chemistry were then added to the high-T sub-mechanism and a 54-species skeletal mechanism is obtained. The rate parameters of the low-T reactions were tuned against a detailed mechanism by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), as well as the Spray A flame experimental data, to improve the prediction of ignition delay at low-T conditions, while the high-T chemistry remained unchanged. The skeletal mechanism was validated for auto-ignition, perfectly stirred reactors (PSR), flow reactors and laminar premixed flames over a wide range of flame conditions. The skeletal mechanism was then employed to simulate three-dimensional turbulent spray flames at compression ignition engine conditions and validated against experimental data from the Engine Combustion Network (ECN).

  13. Radial dependence of solar energetic particles derived from the 15 March 2013 solar energetic particle event and global MHD simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Chin-Chun, E-mail: chin-chun.wu@nrl.navy.mil; Plunkett, Simon, E-mail: simon.plunkett@nrl.navy.mil [Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Liou, Kan, E-mail: kan.liou@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland (United States); Wu, S. T., E-mail: wus@uah.edu [CSPAR, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama (United States); Dryer, Murray, E-mail: murraydryer@msn.com [Emeritus, NOAA, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-03-25

    We study an unusual solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was associated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 15, 2013. Enhancements of the SEP fluxes were first detected by the ACE spacecraft at 14:00 UT, ∼7 hours after the onset of the CME (07:00 UT), and the SEP’s peak intensities were recorded ∼36 hours after the onset of the CME. Our recent study showed that the CME-driven shock Mach number, based on a global three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, is well correlated with the time-intensity of 10-30 MeV and 30-80 MeV protons. Here we focus on the radial dependence (r{sup −α}) of {sup 4}He (3.43-41.2 MeV/n) and O (7.30-89.8 MeV/n) energetic particles from ACE/SIS. It is found that the scaling factor (α) ranges between 2 and 4 for most of the energy channels. We also found that the correlation coefficients tend to increase with SEP energies.

  14. Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lauer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available International shipping contributes significantly to the fuel consumption of all transport related activities. Specific emissions of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2 per kg of fuel emitted are higher than for road transport or aviation. Besides gaseous pollutants, ships also emit various types of particulate matter. The aerosol impacts the Earth's radiation budget directly by scattering and absorbing the solar and thermal radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties. Here we use ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE, a global climate model with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics to study the climate impacts of international shipping. The simulations show that emissions from ships significantly increase the cloud droplet number concentration of low marine water clouds by up to 5% to 30% depending on the ship emission inventory and the geographic region. Whereas the cloud liquid water content remains nearly unchanged in these simulations, effective radii of cloud droplets decrease, leading to cloud optical thickness increase of up to 5–10%. The sensitivity of the results is estimated by using three different emission inventories for present-day conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that shipping contributes to 2.3% to 3.6% of the total sulfate burden and 0.4% to 1.4% to the total black carbon burden in the year 2000 on the global mean. In addition to changes in aerosol chemical composition, shipping increases the aerosol number concentration, e.g. up to 25% in the size range of the accumulation mode (typically >0.1 μm over the Atlantic. The total aerosol optical thickness over the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Northeastern Pacific increases by up to 8–10% depending on the emission inventory. Changes in aerosol optical thickness caused by shipping induced modification of aerosol particle number concentration and chemical composition lead to a change in the shortwave radiation budget at the top of the

  15. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  16. Changes of global terrestrial carbon budget and major drivers in recent 30 years simulated using the remote sensing driven BEPS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, R.; Liu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with spatially distributed leaf area index (LAI), land cover, soil, and climate data to simulate the carbon budget of global terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 1981 to 2008. The BEPS model was first calibrated and validated using gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measured in different ecosystems across the word. Then, four global simulations were conducted at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 8 km to quantify the global terrestrial carbon budget and to identify the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and LAI to the global terrestrial carbon sink. The long term LAI data used to drive the model was generated through fusing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data pixel by pixel. The meteorological fields were interpolated from the 0.5° global daily meteorological dataset produced by the land surface hydrological research group at Princeton University. The results show that the BEPS model was able to simulate carbon fluxes in different ecosystems. Simulated GPP, NPP, and NEP values and their temporal trends exhibited distinguishable spatial patterns. During the period from 1981 to 2008, global terrestrial ecosystems acted as a carbon sink. The averaged global totals of GPP NPP, and NEP were 122.70 Pg C yr-1, 56.89 Pg C yr-1, and 2.76 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global totals of GPP and NPP increased greatly, at rates of 0.43 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.728) and 0.26 Pg C yr-2 (R2=0.709), respectively. Global total NEP did not show an apparent increasing trend (R2= 0.036), averaged 2.26 Pg C yr-1, 3.21 Pg C yr-1, and 2.72 Pg C yr-1 for the periods from 1981 to 1989, from 1990 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2008, respectively. The magnitude and temporal trend of global

  17. FY 2011 Second Quarter: Demonstration of New Aerosol Measurement Verification Testbed for Present-Day Global Aerosol Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, D

    2011-03-20

    The regional-scale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is being used by a DOE Earth System Modeling (ESM) project titled “Improving the Characterization of Clouds, Aerosols and the Cryosphere in Climate Models” to evaluate the performance of atmospheric process modules that treat aerosols and aerosol radiative forcing in the Arctic. We are using a regional-scale modeling framework for three reasons: (1) It is easier to produce a useful comparison to observations with a high resolution model; (2) We can compare the behavior of the CAM parameterization suite with some of the more complex and computationally expensive parameterizations used in WRF; (3) we can explore the behavior of this parameterization suite at high resolution. Climate models like the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) being used within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) will not likely be run at mesoscale spatial resolutions (10–20 km) until 5–10 years from now. The performance of the current suite of physics modules in CAM5 at such resolutions is not known, and current computing resources do not permit high-resolution global simulations to be performed routinely. We are taking advantage of two tools recently developed under PNNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) projects for this activity. The first is the Aerosol Modeling Testbed (Fast et al., 2011b), a new computational framework designed to streamline the process of testing and evaluating aerosol process modules over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The second is the CAM5 suite of physics parameterizations that have been ported into WRF so that their performance and scale dependency can be quantified at mesoscale spatial resolutions (Gustafson et al., 2010; with more publications in preparation).

  18. GLOBAL STRUCTURE OF THREE DISTINCT ACCRETION FLOWS AND OUTFLOWS AROUND BLACK HOLES FROM TWO-DIMENSIONAL RADIATION-MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohsuga, Ken; Mineshige, Shin

    2011-01-01

    We present the detailed global structure of black hole accretion flows and outflows through newly performed two-dimensional radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations. By starting from a torus threaded with weak toroidal magnetic fields and by controlling the central density of the initial torus, ρ 0 , we can reproduce three distinct modes of accretion flow. In model A, which has the highest central density, an optically and geometrically thick supercritical accretion disk is created. The radiation force greatly exceeds the gravity above the disk surface, thereby driving a strong outflow (or jet). Because of mild beaming, the apparent (isotropic) photon luminosity is ∼22L E (where L E is the Eddington luminosity) in the face-on view. Even higher apparent luminosity is feasible if we increase the flow density. In model B, which has moderate density, radiative cooling of the accretion flow is so efficient that a standard-type, cold, and geometrically thin disk is formed at radii greater than ∼7 R S (where R S is the Schwarzschild radius), while the flow is radiatively inefficient otherwise. The magnetic-pressure-driven disk wind appears in this model. In model C, the density is too low for the flow to be radiatively efficient. The flow thus becomes radiatively inefficient accretion flow, which is geometrically thick and optically thin. The magnetic-pressure force, together with the gas-pressure force, drives outflows from the disk surface, and the flow releases its energy via jets rather than via radiation. Observational implications are briefly discussed.

  19. GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

    2012-01-01

    We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

  20. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

  1. Last Glacial Maximum simulations over southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model: synoptic-scale verification

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nkoana, R

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Australia. An ensemble of LGM simulations was constructed, through the downscaling of PMIP3 coupled model simulations over southern Africa. A multiple nudging...

  2. LHS (latin hypercubes) sampling of the material properties of steels for the analysis of the global sensitivity in welding numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petelet, Matthieu; Asserin, Olivier; Iooss, Bertrand; Petelet, Matthieu; Loredo, Alexandre

    2006-01-01

    In this work, the method of sensitivity analysis allowing to identify the inlet data the most influential on the variability of the responses (residual stresses and distortions). Classically, the sensitivity analysis is carried out locally what limits its validity domain to a given material. A global sensitivity analysis method is proposed; it allows to cover a material domain as wide as those of the steels series. A probabilistic modeling giving the variability of the material parameters in the steels series is proposed. The original aspect of this work consists in the use of the sampling method by latin hypercubes (LHS) of the material parameters which forms the inlet data (dependent of temperature) of the numerical simulations. Thus, a statistical approach has been applied to the welding numerical simulation: LHS sampling of the material properties, global sensitivity analysis what has allowed the reduction of the material parameterization. (O.M.)

  3. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.

    2003-04-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

  4. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.

    2003-01-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation

  5. Simulation of aerosol optical properties over a tropical urban site in India using a global model and its comparison with ground measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Goto

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Aerosols have great impacts on atmospheric environment, human health, and earth's climate. Therefore, information on their spatial and temporal distribution is of paramount importance. Despite numerous studies have examined the variation and trends of BC and AOD over India, only very few have focused on their spatial distribution or even correlating the observations with model simulations. In the present study, a three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model coupled with a general circulation model. SPRINTARS, simulated atmospheric aerosol distributions including BC and aerosol optical properties, i.e., aerosol optical thickness (AOT, Ångström Exponent (AE, and single scattering albedo (SSA. The simulated results are compared with both BC measurements by aethalometer and aerosol optical properties measured by ground-based skyradiometer and by satellite sensor, MODIS/Terra over Hyderabad, which is a tropical urban area of India, for the year 2008. The simulated AOT and AE in Hyderabad are found to be comparable to ground-based measured ones. The simulated SSA tends to be higher than the ground-based measurements. Both these comparisons of aerosol optical properties between the simulations with different emission inventories and the measurements indicate that, firstly the model uncertainties derived from aerosol emission inventory cannot explain the gaps between the simulations and the measurements and secondly the vertical transport of BC and the treatment of BC-containing particles can be the main issue in the global model to solve the gap.

  6. Simulation analysis of the possibility of introducing massive renewable energy and nuclear fuel cycle in the scenario to halve global CO2 emissions by the year 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoya, Yoshifumi; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2011-01-01

    There is growing attention to the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate the global warming. Hence, the target of 50% reduction of global GHG emissions by the year 2050 has been investigated in this paper. The authors have been revising the regionally disaggregated world energy model which is formulated as a large scale linear optimization model from the aspect of nuclear and photovoltaic power generation technologies. This paper explains the structure of the revised world energy model considering the intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic power generation derived from the changes in weather conditions. And also this paper shows the simulation results to halve global CO 2 emissions by the year 2050 and evaluates the long-term technological options such as nuclear fuel cycle and renewable energies. Finally the authors discuss the future step for extensive revision of the energy model. (author)

  7. Global Monitoring of Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Moderate-spectral-resolution Near-infrared Satellite Measurements: Methodology, Simulations, and Application to GOME-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joiner, J.; Gaunter, L.; Lindstrot, R.; Voigt, M.; Vasilkov, A. P.; Middleton, E. M.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Yoshida, Y.; Frankenberg, C.

    2013-01-01

    Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2). The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0.5 deg × 0.5 deg

  8. Global monitoring of terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence from moderate-spectral-resolution near-infrared satellite measurements: methodology, simulations, and application to GOME-2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Joiner

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2. The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0

  9. Using Interactive Online Role-Playing Simulations to Develop Global Competency and to Prepare Engineering Students for a Globalised World

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Dominik; Wold, Kari; Moore, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    The world is changing significantly, and it is becoming increasingly globalised. This means that countries, businesses, and professionals must think and act globally to be successful. Many individuals, however, are not prepared with the global competency skills needed to communicate and perform effectively in a globalised system. To address this…

  10. Evaluating the Impact of Role-Playing Simulations on Global Competency in an Online Transnational Engineering Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wold, Kari

    2013-01-01

    Successfully interacting with those from different cultures is essential to excel in any field, particularly when global, transnational collaborations in the workplace are increasingly common. However, many higher education students in engineering are not explicitly taught how to display the global competency skills desired by future employers. To…

  11. Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

  12. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  13. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  14. Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2006-01-01

    Ross's Simulation, Fourth Edition introduces aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This text explains how a computer can be used to generate random numbers, and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. It presents the statist

  15. Study of the L-mode tokamak plasma “shortfall” with local and global nonlinear gyrokinetic δf particle-in-cell simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chowdhury, J.; Wan, Weigang; Chen, Yang; Parker, Scott E. [Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States); Groebner, Richard J. [General Atomics, Post Office Box 85068, San Diego, California 92186 (United States); Holland, C. [University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093 (United States); Howard, N. T. [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States)

    2014-11-15

    The δ f particle-in-cell code GEM is used to study the transport “shortfall” problem of gyrokinetic simulations. In local simulations, the GEM results confirm the previously reported simulation results of DIII-D [Holland et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 052301 (2009)] and Alcator C-Mod [Howard et al., Nucl. Fusion 53, 123011 (2013)] tokamaks with the continuum code GYRO. Namely, for DIII-D the simulations closely predict the ion heat flux at the core, while substantially underpredict transport towards the edge; while for Alcator C-Mod, the simulations show agreement with the experimental values of ion heat flux, at least within the range of experimental error. Global simulations are carried out for DIII-D L-mode plasmas to study the effect of edge turbulence on the outer core ion heat transport. The edge turbulence enhances the outer core ion heat transport through turbulence spreading. However, this edge turbulence spreading effect is not enough to explain the transport underprediction.

  16. Mid-Pliocene global climate simulation with MRI-CGCM2.3: set-up and initial results of PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kamae

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The mid-Pliocene (3.3 to 3.0 million yr ago, a globally warm period before the Quaternary, is recently attracting attention as a new target for paleoclimate modelling and data-model synthesis. This paper reports set-ups and results of experiments proposed in Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP using a global climate model, MRI-CGCM2.3. We conducted pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene runs by using the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM and its atmospheric component (AGCM for the PlioMIP Experiments 2 and 1, respectively. In addition, we conducted two types of integrations in AOGCM simulation, with and without flux adjustments on sea surface. General characteristics of differences in the simulated mid-Pliocene climate relative to the pre-industrial in the three integrations are compared. In addition, patterns of predicted mid-Pliocene biomes resulting from the three climate simulations are compared in this study. Generally, difference of simulated surface climate between AGCM and AOGCM is larger than that between the two AOGCM runs, with and without flux adjustments. The simulated climate shows different pattern between AGCM and AOGCM particularly over low latitude oceans, subtropical land regions and high latitude oceans. The AOGCM simulations do not reproduce wetter environment in the subtropics relative to the present-day, which is suggested by terrestrial proxy data. The differences between the two types of AOGCM runs are small over the land, but evident over the ocean particularly in the North Atlantic and polar regions.

  17. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  18. Dependence of stratocumulus-topped boundary-layer entrainment on cloud-water sedimentation: Impact on global aerosol indirect effect in GISS ModelE3 single column model and global simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, A. S.; Kelley, M.; Cheng, Y.; Fridlind, A. M.; Del Genio, A. D.; Bauer, S.

    2017-12-01

    Reduction in cloud-water sedimentation induced by increasing droplet concentrations has been shown in large-eddy simulations (LES) and direct numerical simulation (DNS) to enhance boundary-layer entrainment, thereby reducing cloud liquid water path and offsetting the Twomey effect when the overlying air is sufficiently dry, which is typical. Among recent upgrades to ModelE3, the latest version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), are a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics treatment with prognostic precipitation and a moist turbulence scheme that includes an option in its entrainment closure of a simple parameterization for the effect of cloud-water sedimentation. Single column model (SCM) simulations are compared to LES results for a stratocumulus case study and show that invoking the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization option indeed reduces the dependence of cloud liquid water path on increasing aerosol concentrations. Impacts of variations of the SCM configuration and the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization will be explored. Its impact on global aerosol indirect forcing in the framework of idealized atmospheric GCM simulations will also be assessed.

  19. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia global rating scale is a reliable tool for simulation-based assessment in pediatric anesthesia crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everett, Tobias C; Ng, Elaine; Power, Daniel; Marsh, Christopher; Tolchard, Stephen; Shadrina, Anna; Bould, Matthew D

    2013-12-01

    The use of simulation-based assessments for high-stakes physician examinations remains controversial. The Managing Emergencies in Paediatric Anaesthesia course uses simulation to teach evidence-based management of anesthesia crises to trainee anesthetists in the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada. In this study, we investigated the feasibility and reliability of custom-designed scenario-specific performance checklists and a global rating scale (GRS) assessing readiness for independent practice. After research ethics board approval, subjects were videoed managing simulated pediatric anesthesia crises in a single Canadian teaching hospital. Each subject was randomized to two of six different scenarios. All 60 scenarios were subsequently rated by four blinded raters (two in the UK, two in Canada) using the checklists and GRS. The actual and predicted reliability of the tools was calculated for different numbers of raters using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Average measures ICCs ranged from 'substantial' to 'near perfect' (P ≤ 0.001). The reliability of the checklists and the GRS was similar. Single measures ICCs showed more variability than average measures ICC. At least two raters would be required to achieve acceptable reliability. We have established the reliability of a GRS to assess the management of simulated crisis scenarios in pediatric anesthesia, and this tool is feasible within the setting of a research study. The global rating scale allows raters to make a judgement regarding a participant's readiness for independent practice. These tools may be used in the future research examining simulation-based assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Near-global climate simulation at 1 km resolution: establishing a performance baseline on 4888 GPUs with COSMO 5.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Fuhrer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The best hope for reducing long-standing global climate model biases is by increasing resolution to the kilometer scale. Here we present results from an ultrahigh-resolution non-hydrostatic climate model for a near-global setup running on the full Piz Daint supercomputer on 4888 GPUs (graphics processing units. The dynamical core of the model has been completely rewritten using a domain-specific language (DSL for performance portability across different hardware architectures. Physical parameterizations and diagnostics have been ported using compiler directives. To our knowledge this represents the first complete atmospheric model being run entirely on accelerators on this scale. At a grid spacing of 930 m (1.9 km, we achieve a simulation throughput of 0.043 (0.23 simulated years per day and an energy consumption of 596 MWh per simulated year. Furthermore, we propose a new memory usage efficiency (MUE metric that considers how efficiently the memory bandwidth – the dominant bottleneck of climate codes – is being used.

  1. Near-global climate simulation at 1 km resolution: establishing a performance baseline on 4888 GPUs with COSMO 5.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhrer, Oliver; Chadha, Tarun; Hoefler, Torsten; Kwasniewski, Grzegorz; Lapillonne, Xavier; Leutwyler, David; Lüthi, Daniel; Osuna, Carlos; Schär, Christoph; Schulthess, Thomas C.; Vogt, Hannes

    2018-05-01

    The best hope for reducing long-standing global climate model biases is by increasing resolution to the kilometer scale. Here we present results from an ultrahigh-resolution non-hydrostatic climate model for a near-global setup running on the full Piz Daint supercomputer on 4888 GPUs (graphics processing units). The dynamical core of the model has been completely rewritten using a domain-specific language (DSL) for performance portability across different hardware architectures. Physical parameterizations and diagnostics have been ported using compiler directives. To our knowledge this represents the first complete atmospheric model being run entirely on accelerators on this scale. At a grid spacing of 930 m (1.9 km), we achieve a simulation throughput of 0.043 (0.23) simulated years per day and an energy consumption of 596 MWh per simulated year. Furthermore, we propose a new memory usage efficiency (MUE) metric that considers how efficiently the memory bandwidth - the dominant bottleneck of climate codes - is being used.

  2. Simulating Global AeroMACS Airport Ground Station Antenna Power Transmission Limits to Avoid Interference With Mobile Satellite Service Feeder Uplinks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Jeffrey D.

    2013-01-01

    The Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS), which is based upon the IEEE 802.16e mobile wireless standard, is expected to be implemented in the 5091 to 5150 MHz frequency band. As this band is also occupied by Mobile Satellite Service feeder uplinks, AeroMACS must be designed to avoid interference with this incumbent service. The aspects of AeroMACS operation that present potential interference are under analysis in order to enable the definition of standards that assure that such interference will be avoided. In this study, the cumulative interference power distribution at low Earth orbit from transmitters at global airports was simulated with the Visualyse Professional software. The dependence of the interference power on antenna distribution, gain patterns, duty cycle, and antenna tilt was simulated. As a function of these parameters, the simulation results are presented in terms of the limitations on transmitter power from global airports required to maintain the cumulative interference power under the established threshold.

  3. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events....

  4. Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Takemura

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.

  5. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  6. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  7. Satellite observations of tropospheric ammonia and carbon monoxide: Global distributions, regional correlations and comparisons to model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia (NH3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are primary pollutants emitted to the Earth's atmosphere from common as well as distinct sources associated with anthropogenic and natural activities. The seasonal and global distributions and correlations of NH3 and CO from the Tropospheric...

  8. Present and Future Projections of Habitat Suitability of the Asian Tiger Mosquito, a Vector of Viral Pathogens, from Global Climate Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proestos, Y.; Christophides, G.; Erguler, K.; Tanarhte, M.; Waldock, J.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can influence the transmission of vector borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause Chikungunya, Dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model (GCM) at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the 21st century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that about 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million square kilometres will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

  9. Cosmic global strings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sikivie, P.

    1991-01-01

    The topics are: global strings; the gravitational field of a straight global string; how do global strings behave?; the axion cosmological energy density; computer simulations of the motion and decay of global strings; electromagnetic radiation from the conversion of Nambu-Goldstone bosons in astrophysical magnetic fields. (orig.)

  10. Modal approach for the full simulation of nondestructive tests by elastic guided waves; Approche modale pour la simulation globale de controles non-destructifs par ondes elastiques guidees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jezzine, K

    2006-11-15

    Tools for simulating nondestructive tests by elastic guided waves are developed. Two overall formulations based on modal formalism and reciprocity are derived depending on whether transmission and reception are separated or not. They relate phenomena of guided wave radiation by a transducer, their propagation, their scattering by a non-uniformity of the guide or a defect and their reception. Receiver electrical output is expressed as a product of terms relating to each phenomenon that can be computed separately. Their computation uses developments based on the semi-analytical finite elements method, dealing with guides of arbitrary cross-section and cracks normal to the guide axis. Simulation tools are used to study means for selecting a single mode using a transducer positioned on the guide section, such a selection making easier the interpretation of the results of testing by guided waves. Two methods of mode selection are proposed, based on the use of two specific frequencies (which existence depends on guide geometry and mode symmetry). Mimicking the normal stress distribution of the mode at one of these two frequencies or the other makes it possible to radiate solely or predominantly the mode chosen. Examinations are simulated in configurations using a single or two separated transducers positioned on the section of various guide geometries and cracks of various shapes. The interest and performances of the two methods of mode selection are studied in these configurations. (author)

  11. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-08-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

  12. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  13. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events......., or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth System models should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment...

  14. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  15. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the nitrate leaching and crop yield simulation under different water and nitrogen management practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural system models have become important tools in studying water and nitrogen (N) dynamics, as well as crop growth, under different management practices. Complexity in input parameters often leads to significant uncertainty when simulating dynamic processes such as nitrate leaching or crop y...

  16. Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Putman, B.; Collatz, J.; Gregg, W.

    2012-01-01

    Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement

  17. Modeling the Global Coronal Field with Simulated Synoptic Magnetograms from Earth and the Lagrange Points L3, L4, and L5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrie, Gordon; Pevtsov, Alexei; Schwarz, Andrew; DeRosa, Marc

    2018-06-01

    The solar photospheric magnetic flux distribution is key to structuring the global solar corona and heliosphere. Regular full-disk photospheric magnetogram data are therefore essential to our ability to model and forecast heliospheric phenomena such as space weather. However, our spatio-temporal coverage of the photospheric field is currently limited by our single vantage point at/near Earth. In particular, the polar fields play a leading role in structuring the large-scale corona and heliosphere, but each pole is unobservable for {>} 6 months per year. Here we model the possible effect of full-disk magnetogram data from the Lagrange points L4 and L5, each extending longitude coverage by 60°. Adding data also from the more distant point L3 extends the longitudinal coverage much further. The additional vantage points also improve the visibility of the globally influential polar fields. Using a flux-transport model for the solar photospheric field, we model full-disk observations from Earth/L1, L3, L4, and L5 over a solar cycle, construct synoptic maps using a novel weighting scheme adapted for merging magnetogram data from multiple viewpoints, and compute potential-field models for the global coronal field. Each additional viewpoint brings the maps and models into closer agreement with the reference field from the flux-transport simulation, with particular improvement at polar latitudes, the main source of the fast solar wind.

  18. Simulation of global oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by an optimal bulk formulation derived from multi-campaign measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garric, G.; Pirani, A.; Belamari, S.; Caniaux, G.

    2006-12-01

    order to improve the air/sea interface for the future MERCATOR global ocean operational system, we have implemented the new bulk formulation developed by METEO-FRANCE (French Meteo office) in the MERCATOR 2 degree global ocean-ice coupled model (ORCA2/LIM). A single bulk formulation for the drag, temperature and moisture exchange coefficients is derived from an extended consistent database gathering 10 years of measurements issued from five experiments dedicated to air-sea fluxes estimates (SEMAPHORE, CATCH, FETCH, EQUALANT99 and POMME) in various oceanic basins (from Northern to equatorial Atlantic). The available database (ALBATROS) cover the widest range of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, from very light (0.3 m/s) to very strong (up to 29 m/s) wind speeds, and from unstable to extremely stable atmospheric boundary layer stratification. We have defined a work strategy to test this new formulation in a global oceanic context, by using this multi- campaign bulk formulation to derive air-sea fluxes from base meteorological variables produces by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range and Weather Forecast) atmospheric forecast model, in order to get surface boundary conditions for ORCA2/LIM. The simulated oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by the previous air/sea interface are compared to those forced by the optimal bulk formulation. Consecutively with generally weaker transfer coefficient, the latter formulation reduces the cold bias in the equatorial Pacific and increases the too weak summer sea ice extent in Antarctica. Compared to a recent mixed layer depth (MLD) climatology, the optimal bulk formulation reduces also the too deep simulated MLDs. Comparison with in situ temperature and salinity profiles in different areas allowed us to evaluate the impact of changing the air/sea interface in the vertical structure.

  19. An evaluation of gravity waves and gravity wave sources in the Southern Hemisphere in a 7 km global climate simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, L A; Alexander, M J; Coy, L; Liu, C; Molod, A; Putman, W; Pawson, S

    2017-07-01

    In this study, gravity waves (GWs) in the high-resolution GEOS-5 Nature Run are first evaluated with respect to satellite and other model results. Southern Hemisphere winter sources of non-orographic GWs in the model are then investigated by linking measures of tropospheric non-orographic gravity wave generation tied to precipitation and frontogenesis with absolute gravity wave momentum flux in the lower stratosphere. Finally, non-orographic GW momentum flux is compared to orographic gravity wave momentum flux and compared to previous estimates. The results show that the global patterns in GW amplitude, horizontal wavelength, and propagation direction are realistic compared to observations. However, as in other global models, the amplitudes are weaker and horizontal wavelengths longer than observed. The global patterns in absolute GW momentum flux also agree well with previous model and observational estimates. The evaluation of model non-orographic GW sources in the Southern Hemisphere winter shows that strong intermittent precipitation (greater than 10 mm h -1 ) is associated with GW momentum flux over the South Pacific, whereas frontogenesis and less intermittent, lower precipitation rates (less than 10 mm h -1 ) are associated with GW momentum flux near 60°S. In the model, orographic GWs contribute almost exclusively to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 70 and 75°S, while non-orographic waves dominate at 60°S, and non-orographic GWs contribute a third to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 25 and 30°S.

  20. A generalized adjoint framework for sensitivity and global error estimation in time-dependent nuclear reactor simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; Anitescu, M.; Adams, M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop an abstract framework for computing the adjoint to the neutron/nuclide burnup equations posed as a system of differential algebraic equations. ► We validate use of the adjoint for computing both sensitivity to uncertain inputs and for estimating global time discretization error. ► Flexibility of the framework is leveraged to add heat transfer physics and compute its adjoint without a reformulation of the adjoint system. ► Such flexibility is crucial for high performance computing applications. -- Abstract: We develop a general framework for computing the adjoint variable to nuclear engineering problems governed by a set of differential–algebraic equations (DAEs). The nuclear engineering community has a rich history of developing and applying adjoints for sensitivity calculations; many such formulations, however, are specific to a certain set of equations, variables, or solution techniques. Any change or addition to the physics model would require a reformulation of the adjoint problem and substantial difficulties in its software implementation. In this work we propose an abstract framework that allows for the modification and expansion of the governing equations, leverages the existing theory of adjoint formulation for DAEs, and results in adjoint equations that can be used to efficiently compute sensitivities for parametric uncertainty quantification. Moreover, as we justify theoretically and demonstrate numerically, the same framework can be used to estimate global time discretization error. We first motivate the framework and show that the coupled Bateman and transport equations, which govern the time-dependent neutronic behavior of a nuclear reactor, may be formulated as a DAE system with a power constraint. We then use a variational approach to develop the parameter-dependent adjoint framework and apply existing theory to give formulations for sensitivity and global time discretization error estimates using the adjoint

  1. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

    2017-08-01

    We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  2. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schwinger

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %. The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea–air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea–air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %, which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  3. The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogo, César; Brandão, João

    2014-06-30

    READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. An MHD simulation model of time-dependent global solar corona with temporally varying solar-surface magnetic field maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, K.

    2013-11-01

    We present a model of a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the sub-Alfvenic solar corona and super-Alfvenic solar wind with temporally varying solar-surface boundary magnetic field data. To (i) accommodate observational data with a somewhat arbitrarily evolving solar photospheric magnetic field as the boundary value and (ii) keep the divergence-free condition, we developed a boundary model, here named Confined Differential Potential Field model, that calculates the horizontal components of the magnetic field, from changes in the vertical component, as a potential field confined in a thin shell. The projected normal characteristic method robustly simulates the solar corona and solar wind, in response to the temporal variation of the boundary Br. We conduct test MHD simulations for two periods, from Carrington Rotation number 2009 to 2010 and from Carrington Rotation 2074 to 2075 at solar maximum and minimum of Cycle 23, respectively. We obtained several coronal features that a fixed boundary condition cannot yield, such as twisted magnetic field lines at the lower corona and the transition from an open-field coronal hole to a closed-field streamer. We also obtained slight improvements of the interplanetary magnetic field, including the latitudinal component, at Earth.

  5. On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

    2016-04-01

    Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

  6. Combined Global MHD and Test-Particle Simulation of a Radiation Belt Storm: Comparing Depletion, Recovery and Enhancement with in Situ Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorathia, K.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Merkin, V. G.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Lyon, J.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.

    2017-12-01

    During geomagnetic storms the intensities of radiation belt electrons exhibit dramatic variability. In the main phase electron intensities exhibit deep depletion over a broad region of the outer belt. The intensities then increase during the recovery phase, often to levels that significantly exceed their pre-storm values. In this study we analyze the depletion, recovery and enhancement of radiation belt intensities during the 2013 St. Patrick's geomagnetic storm. We simulate the dynamics of high-energy electrons using our newly-developed test-particle radiation belt model (CHIMP) based on a hybrid guiding-center/Lorentz integrator and electromagnetic fields derived from high-resolution global MHD (LFM) simulations. Our approach differs from previous work in that we use MHD flow information to identify and seed test-particles into regions of strong convection in the magnetotail. We address two science questions: 1) what are the relative roles of magnetopause losses, transport-driven atmospheric precipitation, and adiabatic cooling in the radiation belt depletion during the storm main phase? and 2) to what extent can enhanced convection/mesoscale injections account for the radiation belt buildup during the recovery phase? Our analysis is based on long-term model simulation and the comparison of our model results with electron intensity measurements from the MAGEIS experiment of the Van Allen Probes mission.

  7. Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

    2010-09-01

    After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

  8. Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, K. A.

    2015-01-01

    Our paper examines the impact of the dynamical core on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, distribution, and intensity. The dynamical core, the central fluid flow component of any general circulation model (GCM), is often overlooked in the analysis of a model's ability to simulate TCs compared to the impact of more commonly documented components (e.g., physical parameterizations). The Community Atmosphere Model version 5 is configured with multiple dynamics packages. This analysis demonstrates that the dynamical core has a significant impact on storm intensity and frequency, even in the presence of similar large-scale environments. In particular, the spectral element core produces stronger TCs and more hurricanes than the finite-volume core using very similar parameterization packages despite the latter having a slightly more favorable TC environment. Furthermore, these results suggest that more detailed investigations into the impact of the GCM dynamical core on TC climatology are needed to fully understand these uncertainties. Key Points The impact of the GCM dynamical core is often overlooked in TC assessments The CAM5 dynamical core has a significant impact on TC frequency and intensity A larger effort is needed to better understand this uncertainty

  9. Slow dynamics and glass transition in simulated free-standing polymer films: a possible relation between global and local glass transition temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter, S; Meyer, H; Baschnagel, J; Seemann, R

    2007-01-01

    We employ molecular dynamics simulations to explore the influence that the surface of a free-standing polymer film exerts on its structural relaxation when the film is cooled toward the glass transition. Our simulations are concerned with the features of a coarse-grained bead-spring model in a temperature regime above the critical temperature T c of mode-coupling theory. We find that the film dynamics is spatially heterogeneous. Monomers at the free surface relax much faster than they would in the bulk at the same temperature T. The fast relaxation of the surface layer continuously turns into bulk-like relaxation with increasing distance y from the surface. This crossover remains smooth for all T, but its range grows on cooling. We show that it is possible to associate a gradient in critical temperatures T c (y) with the gradient in the relaxation dynamics. This finding is in qualitative agreement with experimental results on supported polystyrene (PS) films (Ellison and Torkelson 2003 Nat. Mater. 2 695). Furthermore we show that the y dependence of T c (y) can be expressed in terms of the depression of T c (h)-the global T c for a film of thickness h-if we assume that T c (h) is the arithmetic mean of T c (y) and parameterize the depression of T c (h) by T c (h) = T c /(1+h 0 /h), a formula suggested by Herminghaus et al (2001 Eur. Phys. J. E 5 531) for the reduction of the glass transition temperature in supported PS films. We demonstrate the validity of this formula by comparing our simulation results to results from other simulations and experiments

  10. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM long-term ground-based measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Comparisons are performed for three climate regimes as represented by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. Our intercomparisons of three independent measurements of CF or sky-cover reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5% for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The total sky imager (TSI produces smaller total cloud fraction (TCF compared to a radar/lidar dataset for highly cloudy days (CF > 0.8, but produces a larger TCF value than the radar/lidar for less cloudy conditions (CF < 0.3. The compensating errors in lower and higher CF days result in small biases of TCF between the vertically pointing radar/lidar dataset and the hemispheric TSI measurements as multi-year data is averaged. The unique radar/lidar CF measurements enable us to evaluate seasonal variation of cloud vertical structures in the GCMs.

    Both inter-model deviation and model bias against observation are investigated in this study. Another unique aspect of this study is that we use simultaneous measurements of CF and surface radiative fluxes to diagnose potential discrepancies among the GCMs in representing other cloud optical properties than TCF. The results show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are larger than those in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other dimensions of cloud in addition to cloud amount, such as cloud optical thickness and

  11. Turbulence in a Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of the Earth's Magnetosphere during Northward and Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Alaoui, M.; Richard, R. L.; Ashour-Abdalla, M.; Walker, R. J.; Goldstein, M. L.

    2012-01-01

    We report the results of MHD simulations of Earth's magnetosphere for idealized steady solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The simulations feature purely northward and southward magnetic fields and were designed to study turbulence in the magnetotail plasma sheet. We found that the power spectral densities (PSDs) for both northward and southward IMF had the characteristics of turbulent flow. In both cases, the PSDs showed the three scale ranges expected from theory: the energy-containing scale, the inertial range, and the dissipative range. The results were generally consistent with in-situ observations and theoretical predictions. While the two cases studied, northward and southward IMF, had some similar characteristics, there were significant differences as well. For southward IMF, localized reconnection was the main energy source for the turbulence. For northward IMF, remnant reconnection contributed to driving the turbulence. Boundary waves may also have contributed. In both cases, the PSD slopes had spatial distributions in the dissipative range that reflected the pattern of resistive dissipation. For southward IMF there was a trend toward steeper slopes in the dissipative range with distance down the tail. For northward IMF there was a marked dusk-dawn asymmetry with steeper slopes on the dusk side of the tail. The inertial scale PSDs had a dusk-dawn symmetry during the northward IMF interval with steeper slopes on the dawn side. This asymmetry was not found in the distribution of inertial range slopes for southward IMF. The inertial range PSD slopes were clustered around values close to the theoretical expectation for both northward and southward IMF. In the dissipative range, however, the slopes were broadly distributed and the median values were significantly different, consistent with a different distribution of resistivity.

  12. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  13. Estimates of mercury flux into the United States from non-local and global sources : results from a 3-D CTM simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drewniak, B. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Streets, D.; Kim, M.; Crist, K.; Ohio Univ.

    2008-11-01

    The sensitivity of Hg concentration and deposition in the United States to emissions in China was investigated by using a global chemical transport model: Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART). Two forms of gaseous Hg were included in the model: elemental Hg (HG(0)) and oxidized or reactive Hg (HGO). We simulated three different emission scenarios to evaluate the model's sensitivity. One scenario included no emissions from China, while the others were based on different estimates of Hg emissions in China. The results indicated, in general, that when Hg emissions were included, HG(0) concentrations increased both locally and globally. Increases in Hg concentrations in the United States were greatest during spring and summer, by as much as 7%. Ratios of calculated concentrations of Hg and CO near the source region in eastern Asia agreed well with ratios based on measurements. Increases similar to those observed for HG(0) were also calculated for deposition of HGO. Calculated increases in wet and dry deposition in the United States were 5-7% and 5-9%, respectively. The results indicate that long-range transcontinental transport of Hg has a non-negligible impact on Hg deposition levels in the United States.

  14. SACRA - global data sets of satellite-derived crop calendars for agricultural simulations: an estimation of a high-resolution crop calendar using satellite-sensed NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsuki, S.; Tanaka, K.

    2015-01-01

    To date, many studies have performed numerical estimations of food production and agricultural water demand to understand the present and future supply-demand relationship. A crop calendar (CC) is an essential input datum to estimate food production and agricultural water demand accurately with the numerical estimations. CC defines the date or month when farmers plant and harvest in cropland. This study aims to develop a new global data set of a satellite-derived crop calendar for agricultural simulations (SACRA) and reveal advantages and disadvantages of the satellite-derived CC compared to other global products. We estimate global CC at a spatial resolution of 5 min (≈10 km) using the satellite-sensed NDVI data, which corresponds well to vegetation growth and death on the land surface. We first demonstrate that SACRA shows similar spatial pattern in planting date compared to a census-based product. Moreover, SACRA reflects a variety of CC in the same administrative unit, since it uses high-resolution satellite data. However, a disadvantage is that the mixture of several crops in a grid is not considered in SACRA. We also address that the cultivation period of SACRA clearly corresponds to the time series of NDVI. Therefore, accuracy of SACRA depends on the accuracy of NDVI used for the CC estimation. Although SACRA shows different CC from a census-based product in some regions, multiple usages of the two products are useful to take into consideration the uncertainty of the CC. An advantage of SACRA compared to the census-based products is that SACRA provides not only planting/harvesting dates but also a peak date from the time series of NDVI data.

  15. Adaptive surrogate modeling by ANOVA and sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for global sensitivity analysis in fluid simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Kunkun; Congedo, Pietro M.; Abgrall, Rémi

    2016-01-01

    The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

  16. Adaptive surrogate modeling by ANOVA and sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for global sensitivity analysis in fluid simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Kunkun, E-mail: ktg@illinois.edu [The Center for Exascale Simulation of Plasma-Coupled Combustion (XPACC), University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 1308 W Main St, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Inria Bordeaux – Sud-Ouest, Team Cardamom, 200 avenue de la Vieille Tour, 33405 Talence (France); Congedo, Pietro M. [Inria Bordeaux – Sud-Ouest, Team Cardamom, 200 avenue de la Vieille Tour, 33405 Talence (France); Abgrall, Rémi [Institut für Mathematik, Universität Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2016-06-01

    The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

  17. NSTX Disruption Simulations of Detailed Divertor and Passive Plate Models by Vector Potential Transfer from OPERA Global Analysis Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Titus, P.H.; Avasaralla, S.; Brooks, A.; Hatcher, R.

    2010-01-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) project is planning upgrades to the toroidal field, plasma current and pulse length. This involves the replacement of the center-stack, including the inner legs of the TF, OH, and inner PF coils. A second neutral beam will also be added. The increased performance of the upgrade requires qualification of the remaining components including the vessel, passive plates, and divertor for higher disruption loads. The hardware needing qualification is more complex than is typically accessible by large scale electromagnetic (EM) simulations of the plasma disruptions. The usual method is to include simplified representations of components in the large EM models and attempt to extract forces to apply to more detailed models. This paper describes a more efficient approach of combining comprehensive modeling of the plasma and tokamak conducting structures, using the 2D OPERA code, with much more detailed treatment of individual components using ANSYS electromagnetic (EM) and mechanical analysis. This capture local eddy currents and resulting loads in complex details, and allows efficient non-linear, and dynamic structural analyses.

  18. NSTX Disruption Simulations of Detailed Divertor and Passive Plate Models by Vector Potential Transfer from OPERA Global Analysis Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. H. Titus, S. Avasaralla, A.Brooks, R. Hatcher

    2010-09-22

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) project is planning upgrades to the toroidal field, plasma current and pulse length. This involves the replacement of the center-stack, including the inner legs of the TF, OH, and inner PF coils. A second neutral beam will also be added. The increased performance of the upgrade requires qualification of the remaining components including the vessel, passive plates, and divertor for higher disruption loads. The hardware needing qualification is more complex than is typically accessible by large scale electromagnetic (EM) simulations of the plasma disruptions. The usual method is to include simplified representations of components in the large EM models and attempt to extract forces to apply to more detailed models. This paper describes a more efficient approach of combining comprehensive modeling of the plasma and tokamak conducting structures, using the 2D OPERA code, with much more detailed treatment of individual components using ANSYS electromagnetic (EM) and mechanical analysis. This capture local eddy currents and resulting loads in complex details, and allows efficient non-linear, and dynamic structural analyses.

  19. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew

    2017-11-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release

  20. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Shaffer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean–atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean–atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example

  1. A 1.8 trillion degrees-of-freedom, 1.24 petaflops global seismic wave simulation on the K computer

    KAUST Repository

    Tsuboi, Seiji

    2016-03-01

    We present high-performance simulations of global seismic wave propagation with an unprecedented accuracy of 1.2 s seismic period for a realistic three-dimensional Earth model using the spectral element method on the K computer. Our seismic simulations use a total of 665.2 billion grid points and resolve 1.8 trillion degrees of freedom. To realize these large-scale computations, we optimize a widely used community software code to efficiently address all hardware parallelization, especially thread-level parallelization to solve the bottleneck of memory usage for coarse-grained parallelization. The new code exhibits excellent strong scaling for the time stepping loop, that is, parallel efficiency on 82,134 nodes relative to 36,504 nodes is 99.54%. Sustained performance of these computations on the K computer is 1.24 petaflops, which is 11.84% of its peak performance. The obtained seismograms with an accuracy of 1.2 s for the entire globe should help us to better understand rupture mechanisms of devastating earthquakes.

  2. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  3. A 1.8 trillion degrees-of-freedom, 1.24 petaflops global seismic wave simulation on the K computer

    KAUST Repository

    Tsuboi, Seiji; Ando, Kazuto; Miyoshi, Takayuki; Peter, Daniel; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen

    2016-01-01

    We present high-performance simulations of global seismic wave propagation with an unprecedented accuracy of 1.2 s seismic period for a realistic three-dimensional Earth model using the spectral element method on the K computer. Our seismic simulations use a total of 665.2 billion grid points and resolve 1.8 trillion degrees of freedom. To realize these large-scale computations, we optimize a widely used community software code to efficiently address all hardware parallelization, especially thread-level parallelization to solve the bottleneck of memory usage for coarse-grained parallelization. The new code exhibits excellent strong scaling for the time stepping loop, that is, parallel efficiency on 82,134 nodes relative to 36,504 nodes is 99.54%. Sustained performance of these computations on the K computer is 1.24 petaflops, which is 11.84% of its peak performance. The obtained seismograms with an accuracy of 1.2 s for the entire globe should help us to better understand rupture mechanisms of devastating earthquakes.

  4. Young gamma-ray pulsar: from modeling the gamma-ray emission to the particle-in-cell simulations of the global magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brambilla, Gabriele; Kalapotharakos, Constantions; Timokhin, Andrey; Kust Harding, Alice; Kazanas, Demosthenes

    2016-04-01

    Accelerated charged particles flowing in the magnetosphere produce pulsar gamma-ray emission. Pair creation processes produce an electron-positron plasma that populates the magnetosphere, in which the plasma is very close to force-free. However, it is unknown how and where the plasma departs from the ideal force-free condition, which consequently inhibits the understanding of the emission generation. We found that a dissipative magnetosphere outside the light cylinder effectively reproduces many aspects of the young gamma-ray pulsar emission as seen by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, and through particle-in-cell simulations (PIC), we started explaining this configuration self-consistently. These findings show that, together, a magnetic field structure close to force-free and the assumption of gamma-ray curvature radiation as the emission mechanism are strongly compatible with the observations. Two main issues from the previously used models that our work addresses are the inability to explain luminosity, spectra, and light curve features at the same time and the inconsistency of the electrodynamics. Moreover, using the PIC simulations, we explore the effects of different pair multiplicities on the magnetosphere configurations and the locations of the accelerating regions. Our work aims for a self-consistent modeling of the magnetosphere, connecting the microphysics of the pair-plasma to the global magnetosphere macroscopic quantities. This direction will lead to a greater understanding of pulsar emission at all wavelengths, as well as to concrete insights into the physics of the magnetosphere.

  5. Vertical profiles of Mars 1.27 μm O2 dayglow from MRO CRISM limb spectra: Seasonal/global behaviors, comparisons to LMDGCM simulations, and a global definition for Mars water vapor profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd Clancy, R.; Smith, Michael D.; Lefèvre, Franck; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Sandor, Brad J.; Wolff, Michael J.; Lee, Steven W.; Murchie, Scott L.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Nair, Hari; Navarro, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    Since July of 2009, The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has periodically obtained pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of limb scanned visible/near IR spectra (λ = 0.4 - 4.0 μ m, △λ ∼ 10 nm- Murchie et al., 2007). These CRISM limb observations support the first seasonally and spatially extensive set of Mars 1.27 μm O2(1△g) dayglow profile retrievals (∼ 1100) over ≥ 8-80 km altitudes. Their comparison to Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model (GCM) simulated O2(1△g) volume emission rate (VER) profiles, as a function of altitude, latitude, and season (solar longitude, Ls), supports several key conclusions regarding Mars atmospheric water vapor (which is derived from O2(1△g) emission rates), Mars O3, and the collisional de-excitation of O2(1△g) in the Mars CO2 atmosphere. Current (Navarro et al., 2014) LMDGCM simulations of Mars atmospheric water vapor fall 2-3 times below CRISM derived water vapor abundances at 20-40 km altitudes over low-to-mid latitudes in northern spring (Ls = 30-60°), and northern mid-to-high latitudes over northern summer (Ls = 60-140°). In contrast, LMDGCM simulated water vapor is 2-5 times greater than CRISM derived values at all latitudes and seasons above 40 km, within the aphelion cloud belt (ACB), and over high-southern to mid-southern latitudes in southern summer (Ls = 190-340°) at 15-35 km altitudes. Overall, the solstitial summer-to-winter hemisphere gradients in water vapor are reversed between the LMDGCM modeled versus the CRISM derived water vapor abundances above 10-30 km altitudes. LMDGCM-CRISM differences in water vapor profiles correlate with LMDGCM-CRISM differences in cloud mixing profiles; and likely reflect limitations in simulating cloud microphysics and radiative forcing, both of which restrict meridional transport of water from summer-to-winter hemispheres on Mars (Clancy et al., 1996

  6. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

  7. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  8. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  9. Online Simulations of Global Aerosol Distributions in the NASA GEOS-4 Model and Comparisons to Satellite and Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    We have implemented a module for tropospheric aerosols (GO CART) online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 model and simulated global aerosol distributions for the period 2000-2006. The new online system offers several advantages over the previous offline version, providing a platform for aerosol data assimilation, aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction studies, and short-range chemical weather forecasting and climate prediction. We introduce as well a methodology for sampling model output consistently with satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals to facilitate model-satellite comparison. Our results are similar to the offline GOCART model and to the models participating in the AeroCom intercomparison. The simulated AOT has similar seasonal and regional variability and magnitude to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations. The model AOT and Angstrom parameter are consistently low relative to AERONET in biomass-burning-dominated regions, where emissions appear to be underestimated, consistent with the results of the offline GOCART model. In contrast, the model AOT is biased high in sulfate-dominated regions of North America and Europe. Our model-satellite comparison methodology shows that diurnal variability in aerosol loading is unimportant compared to sampling the model where the satellite has cloud-free observations, particularly in sulfate-dominated regions. Simulated sea salt burden and optical thickness are high by a factor of 2-3 relative to other models, and agreement between model and satellite over-ocean AOT is improved by reducing the model sea salt burden by a factor of 2. The best agreement in both AOT magnitude and variability occurs immediately downwind of the Saharan dust plume.

  10. Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

  11. A comparison of global rating scale and checklist scores in the validation of an evaluation tool to assess performance in the resuscitation of critically ill patients during simulated emergencies (abbreviated as "CRM simulator study IB").

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John; Neilipovitz, David; Cardinal, Pierre; Chiu, Michelle

    2009-01-01

    Crisis resource management (CRM) skills are a set of nonmedical skills required to manage medical emergencies. There is currently no gold standard for evaluation of CRM performance. A prior study examined the use of a global rating scale (GRS) to evaluate CRM performance. This current study compared the use of a GRS and a checklist as formal rating instruments to evaluate CRM performance during simulated emergencies. First-year and third-year residents participated in two simulator scenarios each. Three raters then evaluated resident performance in CRM using edited video recordings using both a GRS and a checklist. The Ottawa GRS provides a seven-point anchored ordinal scale for performance in five categories of CRM, and an overall performance score. The Ottawa CRM checklist provides 12 items in the five categories of CRM, with a maximum cumulative score of 30 points. Construct validity was measured on the basis of content validity, response process, internal structure, and response to other variables. T-test analysis of Ottawa GRS scores was conducted to examine response to the variable of level of training. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) scores were used to measure inter-rater reliability for both scenarios. Thirty-two first-year and 28 third-year residents participated in the study. Third-year residents produced higher mean scores for overall CRM performance than first-year residents (P CRM checklist (P CRM checklist. Users indicated a strong preference for the Ottawa GRS given ease of scoring, presence of an overall score, and the potential for formative evaluation. Construct validity seems to be present when using both the Ottawa GRS and CRM checklist to evaluate CRM performance during simulated emergencies. Data also indicate the presence of moderate inter-rater reliability when using both the Ottawa GRS and CRM checklist.

  12. Efficacy of very fast simulated annealing global optimization method for interpretation of self-potential anomaly by different forward formulation over 2D inclined sheet type structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, A.; Sharma, S. P.

    2012-12-01

    Self-Potential anomaly is an important geophysical technique that measures the electrical potential due natural source of current in the Earth's subsurface. An inclined sheet type model is a very familiar structure associated with mineralization, fault plane, groundwater flow and many other geological features which exhibits self potential anomaly. A number of linearized and global inversion approaches have been developed for the interpretation of SP anomaly over different structures for various purposes. Mathematical expression to compute the forward response over a two-dimensional dipping sheet type structures can be described in three different ways using five variables in each case. Complexities in the inversion using three different forward approaches are different. Interpretation of self-potential anomaly using very fast simulated annealing global optimization has been developed in the present study which yielded a new insight about the uncertainty and equivalence in model parameters. Interpretation of the measured data yields the location of the causative body, depth to the top, extension, dip and quality of the causative body. In the present study, a comparative performance of three different forward approaches in the interpretation of self-potential anomaly is performed to assess the efficacy of the each approach in resolving the possible ambiguity. Even though each forward formulation yields the same forward response but optimization of different sets of variable using different forward problems poses different kinds of ambiguity in the interpretation. Performance of the three approaches in optimization has been compared and it is observed that out of three methods, one approach is best and suitable for this kind of study. Our VFSA approach has been tested on synthetic, noisy and field data for three different methods to show the efficacy and suitability of the best method. It is important to use the forward problem in the optimization that yields the

  13. Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juha M. Alatalo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied the impact of simulated global change on a high alpine meadow plant community. Specifically, we examined whether short-term (5 years responses are good predictors for medium-term (7 years changes in the system by applying a factorial warming and nutrient manipulation to 20 plots in Latnjajaure, subarctic Sweden. Seven years of experimental warming and nutrient enhancement caused dramatic shifts in dominance hierarchies in response to the nutrient and the combined warming and nutrient enhancement treatments. Dominance hierarchies in the meadow moved from a community being dominated by cushion plants, deciduous, and evergreen shrubs to a community being dominated by grasses, sedges, and forbs. Short-term responses were shown to be inconsistent in their ability to predict medium-term responses for most functional groups, however, grasses showed a consistent and very substantial increase in response to nutrient addition over the seven years. The non-linear responses over time point out the importance of longer-term studies with repeated measurements to be able to better predict future changes. Forecasted changes to temperature and nutrient availability have implications for trophic interactions, and may ultimately influence the access to and palatability of the forage for grazers. Depending on what anthropogenic change will be most pronounced in the future (increase in nutrient deposits, warming, or a combination of them both, different shifts in community dominance hierarchies may occur. Generally, this study supports the productivity–diversity relationship found across arctic habitats, with community diversity peaking in mid-productivity systems and degrading as nutrient availability increases further. This is likely due the increasing competition in plant–plant interactions and the shifting dominance structure with grasses taking over the experimental plots, suggesting that global change could have high costs to biodiversity in the

  14. Global hydromagnetic simulations of a planet embedded in a dead zone: Gap opening, gas accretion, and formation of a protoplanetary jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gressel, O. [NORDITA, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Nelson, R. P. [Astronomy Unit, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Turner, N. J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Ziegler, U., E-mail: oliver.gressel@nordita.org, E-mail: r.p.nelson@qmul.ac.uk, E-mail: neal.j.turner@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: uziegler@aip.de [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482, Potsdam (Germany)

    2013-12-10

    We present global hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations with mesh refinement of accreting planets embedded in protoplanetary disks (PPDs). The magnetized disk includes Ohmic resistivity that depends on the overlying mass column, leading to turbulent surface layers and a dead zone near the midplane. The main results are: (1) the accretion flow in the Hill sphere is intrinsically three-dimensional for HD and MHD models. Net inflow toward the planet is dominated by high-latitude flows. A circumplanetary disk (CPD) forms. Its midplane flows outward in a pattern whose details differ between models. (2) The opening of a gap magnetically couples and ignites the dead zone near the planet, leading to stochastic accretion, a quasi-turbulent flow in the Hill sphere, and a CPD whose structure displays high levels of variability. (3) Advection of magnetized gas onto the rotating CPD generates helical fields that launch magnetocentrifugally driven outflows. During one specific epoch, a highly collimated, one-sided jet is observed. (4) The CPD's surface density is ∼30 g cm{sup −2}, small enough for significant ionization and turbulence to develop. (5) The accretion rate onto the planet in the MHD simulation reaches a steady value 8 × 10{sup –3} M {sub ⊕} yr{sup –1} and is similar in the viscous HD runs. Our results suggest that gas accretion onto a forming giant planet within a magnetized PPD with a dead zone allows rapid growth from Saturnian to Jovian masses. As well as being relevant for giant planet formation, these results have important implications for the formation of regular satellites around gas giant planets.

  15. Saltelli Global Sensitivity Analysis and Simulation Modelling to Identify Intervention Strategies to Reduce the Prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 Contaminated Beef Carcasses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria J Brookes

    Full Text Available Strains of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157 are important foodborne pathogens in humans, and outbreaks of illness have been associated with consumption of undercooked beef. Here, we determine the most effective intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated beef carcasses using a modelling approach.A computational model simulated events and processes in the beef harvest chain. Information from empirical studies was used to parameterise the model. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA using the Saltelli method identified variables with the greatest influence on the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses. Following a baseline scenario (no interventions, a series of simulations systematically introduced and tested interventions based on influential variables identified by repeated Saltelli GSA, to determine the most effective intervention strategy.Transfer of STEC O157 from hide or gastro-intestinal tract to carcass (improved abattoir hygiene had the greatest influence on the prevalence of contaminated carcases. Due to interactions between inputs (identified by Saltelli GSA, combinations of interventions based on improved abattoir hygiene achieved a greater reduction in maximum prevalence than would be expected from an additive effect of single interventions. The most effective combination was improved abattoir hygiene with vaccination, which achieved a greater than ten-fold decrease in maximum prevalence compared to the baseline scenario.Study results suggest that effective interventions to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses should initially be based on improved abattoir hygiene. However, the effect of improved abattoir hygiene on the distribution of STEC O157 concentration on carcasses is an important information gap-further empirical research is required to determine whether reduced prevalence of contaminated carcasses is likely to result in reduced

  16. A degradation approach to accelerate simulations to steady-state in a 3-D tracer transport model of the global ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aumont, O.; Orr, J.C.; Marti, O. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement; Jamous, D.; Monfray, P. [Centre des Faibles Radioactivites, Laboratoire mixte CNRS-CEA, L`Orme des Merisiers, Bt. 709/LMCE, CE Saclay, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France); Madec, G. [Laboratoire d`Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, (CNRS/ORSTOM/UPMC) Universite Paris VI, 4 place Jussieu, Paris (France)

    1998-02-01

    We have developed a new method to accelerate tracer simulations to steady-state in a 3D global ocean model, run off-line. Using this technique, our simulations for natural {sup 14}C ran 17 times faster when compared to those made with the standard nonaccelerated approach. For maximum acceleration we wish to initialize the model with tracer fields that are as close as possible to the final equilibrium solution. Our initial tracer fields were derived by judiciously constructing a much faster, lower-resolution (degraded), off-line model from advective and turbulent fields predicted from the parent on-line model, an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). No on-line version of the degraded model exists; it is based entirely on results from the parent OGCM. Degradation was made horizontally over sets of four adjacent grid-cell squares for each vertical layer of the parent model. However, final resolution did not suffer because as a second step, after allowing the degraded model to reach equilibrium, we used its tracer output to reinitialize the parent model (at the original resolution). After reinitialization, the parent model must then be integrated only to a few hundred years before reaching equilibrium. To validate our degradation-integration technique (DEGINT), we compared {sup 14}C results from runs with and without this approach. Differences are less than 10 permille throughout 98.5% of the ocean volume. Predicted natural {sup 14}C appears reasonable over most of the ocean. In the Atlantic, modeled {Delta}{sup 14}C indicates that as observed, the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) fills the deep North Atlantic, and Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW) infiltrates northward. (orig.) With 12 figs., 1 tab., 42 refs.

  17. A three-dimensional, iterative mapping procedure for the implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere anisotropic Ohm's law boundary condition in global magnetohydrodynamic simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Goodman

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available The mathematical formulation of an iterative procedure for the numerical implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere (IM anisotropic Ohm's law boundary condition is presented. The procedure may be used in global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulations of the magnetosphere. The basic form of the boundary condition is well known, but a well-defined, simple, explicit method for implementing it in an MHD code has not been presented previously. The boundary condition relates the ionospheric electric field to the magnetic field-aligned current density driven through the ionosphere by the magnetospheric convection electric field, which is orthogonal to the magnetic field B, and maps down into the ionosphere along equipotential magnetic field lines. The source of this electric field is the flow of the solar wind orthogonal to B. The electric field and current density in the ionosphere are connected through an anisotropic conductivity tensor which involves the Hall, Pedersen, and parallel conductivities. Only the height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities (conductances appear in the final form of the boundary condition, and are assumed to be known functions of position on the spherical surface R=R1 representing the boundary between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The implementation presented consists of an iterative mapping of the electrostatic potential ψ the gradient of which gives the electric field, and the field-aligned current density between the IM boundary at R=R1 and the inner boundary of an MHD code which is taken to be at R2>R1. Given the field-aligned current density on R=R2, as computed by the MHD simulation, it is mapped down to R=R1 where it is used to compute ψ by solving the equation that is the IM Ohm's law boundary condition. Then ψ is mapped out to R=R2, where it is used to update the electric field and the component of velocity perpendicular to B. The updated electric field and perpendicular velocity serve as new boundary

  18. Global minimum-energy structure and spectroscopic properties of I2(*-) x n H2O clusters: a Monte Carlo simulated annealing study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Arup Kumar; Mukherjee, Tulsi; Maity, Dilip Kumar

    2010-01-18

    The vibrational (IR and Raman) and photoelectron spectral properties of hydrated iodine-dimer radical-anion clusters, I(2)(*-) x n H(2)O (n=1-10), are presented. Several initial guess structures are considered for each size of cluster to locate the global minimum-energy structure by applying a Monte Carlo simulated annealing procedure including spin-orbit interaction. In the Raman spectrum, hydration reduces the intensity of the I-I stretching band but enhances the intensity of the O-H stretching band of water. Raman spectra of more highly hydrated clusters appear to be simpler than the corresponding IR spectra. Vibrational bands due to simultaneous stretching vibrations of O-H bonds in a cyclic water network are observed for I(2)(*-) x n H(2)O clusters with n > or = 3. The vertical detachment energy (VDE) profile shows stepwise saturation that indicates closing of the geometrical shell in the hydrated clusters on addition of every four water molecules. The calculated VDE of finite-size small hydrated clusters is extrapolated to evaluate the bulk VDE value of I(2)(*-) in aqueous solution as 7.6 eV at the CCSD(T) level of theory. Structure and spectroscopic properties of these hydrated clusters are compared with those of hydrated clusters of Cl(2)(*-) and Br(2)(*-).

  19. The Effect of Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) on Ionosphere and Thermosphere during 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm: Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, J.; Deng, Y.; Zhang, D.; Lu, Y.; Sheng, C.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) are incorporated into the non-hydrostatic Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), revealing the complex effects on neutral dynamics and ion-neutral coupling processes. The intense westward ion stream could enhance the neutral zonal wind within the SAPS channel. Through neutral dynamics the neutrals then divide into two streams, one turns poleward and the other turns equatorward, forming a two-cell pattern in the SAPS-changed wind. The significant Joule heating induced by SAPS also leads to traveling atmospheric disturbances (TAD) accompanied by traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID), increasing the total electron content (TEC) by 2-8 TECu in the mid-latitude ionosphere. We investigate the potential causes of the reported poleward wind surge during the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015. It is confirmed that Coriolis force on the westward zonal wind can contribute the poleward wind during post-SAPS interval. In addition, the simulations imply that the sudden decrease of heating rate within auroral oval could result in a TAD propagating equatorward, which could also be responsible for the sudden poleward wind surge. This study highlights the complicated effects of SAPS on ion-neutral coupling and neutral dynamics.

  20. Gyrokinetic particle-in-cell global simulations of ion-temperature-gradient and collisionless-trapped-electron-mode turbulence in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolliet, S.

    2009-02-01

    -Maxwell system is solved in the electrostatic and collisionless limit with the Particle-In-Cell (PIC) ORB5 code in global tokamak geometry. This Monte-Carlo approach suffers from statistical noise which unavoidably degrades the quality of the simulation. Consequently, the first part of this work has been devoted to the optimization of the code with a view to reduce the numerical noise. The code has been rewritten in a new coordinate system which takes advantage of the anisotropy of turbulence, which is mostly aligned with the magnetic field lines. The overall result of the optimization is that for a given accuracy, the CPU time has been decreased by a factor two thousand, the total memory has been decreased by a factor ten and the numerical noise has been reduced by a factor two hundred. In addition, the scaling of the code with respect to plasma size is presently optimal, suggesting that ORB5 could compute heat transport for future fusion devices such as ITER. The second part of this thesis presents the validation of the code with numerical convergence tests, linear (including dispersion relations) and nonlinear benchmarks. Furthermore, the code has been applied to important issues in gyrokinetic theory. It is shown for the first time that a 5D global delta-f PIC code can achieve a thermodynamic steady state on the condition that some dissipation is present. This is a fundamental result as the main criticism against delta-f PIC codes is their inability to deal with long time simulations. Next, the role of the parallel nonlinearity is studied and it is demonstrated in this work that this term has no real influence on turbulence, provided the numerical noise is sufficiently low. This result should put an end to the controversy that recently occurred, in which gyrokinetic simulations using different numerical approaches yielded contradictory results. Finally, thanks to the optimization of the code, the gyrokinetic model has been extended to include the kinetic response of trapped

  1. Designing global climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations for 1 and 10 km diameter asteroid impacts using the properties of ejecta from the K-Pg impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. B. Toon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available About 66 million years ago, an asteroid about 10 km in diameter struck the Yucatan Peninsula creating the Chicxulub crater. The crater has been dated and found to be coincident with the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg mass extinction event, one of six great mass extinctions in the last 600 million years. This event precipitated one of the largest episodes of rapid climate change in Earth's history, yet no modern three-dimensional climate calculations have simulated the event. Similarly, while there is an ongoing effort to detect asteroids that might hit Earth and to develop methods to stop them, there have been no modern calculations of the sizes of asteroids whose impacts on land would cause devastating effects on Earth. Here, we provide the information needed to initialize such calculations for the K-Pg impactor and for a 1 km diameter impactor. There is considerable controversy about the details of the events that followed the Chicxulub impact. We proceed through the data record in the order of confidence that a climatically important material was present in the atmosphere. The climatic importance is roughly proportional to the optical depth of the material. Spherules with diameters of several hundred microns are found globally in an abundance that would have produced an atmospheric layer with an optical depth around 20, yet their large sizes would only allow them to stay airborne for a few days. They were likely important for triggering global wildfires. Soot, probably from global or near-global wildfires, is found globally in an abundance that would have produced an optical depth near 100, which would effectively prevent sunlight from reaching the surface. Nanometer-sized iron particles are also present globally. Theory suggests these particles might be remnants of the vaporized asteroid and target that initially remained as vapor rather than condensing on the hundred-micron spherules when they entered the atmosphere. If present in the

  2. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  3. Potentials of satellite derived SIF products to constrain GPP simulated by the new ORCHIDEE-FluOR terrestrial model at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacour, C.; Maignan, F.; Porcar-Castell, A.; MacBean, N.; Goulas, Y.; Flexas, J.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.; Peylin, P.

    2016-12-01

    A new era for improving our knowledge of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the global scale has begun with recent studies on the relationships between remotely sensed Sun Induce Fluorescence (SIF) and plant photosynthetic activity (GPP), and the availability of such satellite-derived products now "routinely" produced from GOSAT, GOME-2, or OCO-2 observations. Assimilating SIF data into terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) represents a novel opportunity to reduce the uncertainty of their prediction with respect to carbon-climate feedbacks, in particular the uncertainties resulting from inaccurate parameter values. A prerequisite is a correct representation in TEMs of the several drivers of plant fluorescence from the leaf to the canopy scale, and in particular the competing processes of photochemistry and non photochemical quenching (NPQ).In this study, we present the first results of a global scale assimilation of GOME-2 SIF products within a new version of the ORCHIDEE land surface model including a physical module of plant fluorescence. At the leaf level, the regulation of fluorescence yield is simulated both by the photosynthesis module of ORCHIDEE to calculate the photochemical yield and by a parametric model to estimate NPQ. The latter has been calibrated on leaf fluorescence measurements performed for boreal coniferous and Mediterranean vegetation species. A parametric representation of the SCOPE radiative transfer model is used to model the plant fluorescence fluxes for PSI and PSII and the scaling up to the canopy level. The ORCHIDEE-FluOR model is firstly evaluated with respect to in situ measurements of plant fluorescence flux and photochemical yield for scots pine and wheat. The potentials of SIF data to constrain the modelled GPP are evaluated by assimilating one year of GOME-2-SIF products within ORCHIDEE-FluOR. We investigate in particular the changes in the spatial patterns of GPP following the optimization of the photosynthesis and phenology parameters

  4. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  5. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna

    2017-09-28

    Recent satellite observations show efficient vertical transport of Asian pollutants from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone by deep monsoon convection. In this paper, we examine the transport of carbonaceous aerosols, including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), into the monsoon anticyclone using of ECHAM6-HAM, a global aerosol climate model. Further, we investigate impacts of enhanced (doubled) carbonaceous aerosol emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), underneath monsoon circulation and precipitation from sensitivity simulations. The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  6. The new version of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Sigma Ocean Model (INMSOM) for simulation of Global Ocean circulation and its variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Anatoly; Fomin, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay; Korshenko, Evgeniya

    2017-04-01

    ) Improvement river runoff algorithm accounting the total amount of discharged water. 6) Using explicit leapfrog time scheme for all lateral operators and implicit Euler scheme for vertical diffusion and viscosity. The INMSOM is tested by reproducing World Ocean circulation and thermohaline characteristics using the well-proved CORE dataset. The presentation is devoted to the analysis of new INMSOM simulation results, estimation of their quality and comparison to the ones previously obtained with the INMOM. The main aim of the INMSOM development is using it as the oceanic component of the next version of INMCM. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants № 16-05-00534 and № 15-05-07539) References 1. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager S.G., Bailey D., et al., 2014: North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean states. Ocean Modelling, 73, 76-107. 2. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager S.G., Kim W.M. et al., 2016: North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability. Ocean Modelling, 97, 65-90. 3. Downes S.M., Farneti R., Uotila P. et al. An assessment of Southern Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Ocean Modelling (2015), 94, 67-94. 4. Farneti R., Downes S.M., Griffies S.M. et al. An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1958-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling (2015), 93, 84-120. 5. Gusev A.V. and Diansky N.A. Numerical simulation of the World ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948-2007 using the INMOM. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2014, V. 50, N. 1, P. 1-12 6. Large, W., Yeager, S., 2009. The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Clim Dyn, V. 33, P. 341-364. 7. Ushakov K.V., Grankina T.B., Ibraev R

  7. A three-dimensional, iterative mapping procedure for the implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere anisotropic Ohm's law boundary condition in global magnetohydrodynamic simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Goodman

    Full Text Available The mathematical formulation of an iterative procedure for the numerical implementation of an ionosphere-magnetosphere (IM anisotropic Ohm's law boundary condition is presented. The procedure may be used in global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulations of the magnetosphere. The basic form of the boundary condition is well known, but a well-defined, simple, explicit method for implementing it in an MHD code has not been presented previously. The boundary condition relates the ionospheric electric field to the magnetic field-aligned current density driven through the ionosphere by the magnetospheric convection electric field, which is orthogonal to the magnetic field B, and maps down into the ionosphere along equipotential magnetic field lines. The source of this electric field is the flow of the solar wind orthogonal to B. The electric field and current density in the ionosphere are connected through an anisotropic conductivity tensor which involves the Hall, Pedersen, and parallel conductivities. Only the height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities (conductances appear in the final form of the boundary condition, and are assumed to be known functions of position on the spherical surface R=R1 representing the boundary between the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The implementation presented consists of an iterative mapping of the electrostatic potential ψ the gradient of which gives the electric field, and the field-aligned current density between the IM boundary at R=R1 and the inner boundary of an MHD code which is taken to be at R2>R1. Given the field-aligned current density on R=R2, as computed by the MHD simulation, it is mapped down to R=R1 where it is used to compute ψ by solving the equation that is the IM Ohm's law boundary condition. Then ψ is mapped out

  8. The Global Saving Glut in the light of demographic developments : a numerical simulation of the developments in China and the US

    OpenAIRE

    Pettersen, Malin Karlberg; Håland, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this thesis is to predict how demographic developments will affect the Global Saving Glut. The thesis examines how the changes in the age structure in China and the US are affecting their respective aggregate savings rates. Ben Bernanke was the first economist to mention the term Global Saving Glut, which describes an economy where desired saving exceeds desired investment. He states that the increase in the global supply of savings was one of the main reasons ...

  9. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  10. Global safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorien J. DeTombe

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Global Safety is a container concept referring to various threats such as HIV/Aids, floods and terrorism; threats with different causes and different effects. These dangers threaten people, the global economy and the slity of states. Policy making for this kind of threats often lack an overview of the real causes and the interventions are based on a too shallow analysis of the problem, mono-disciplinary and focus mostly only on the effects. It would be more appropriate to develop policy related to these issues by utilizing the approaches, methods and tools that have been developed for complex societal problems. Handling these complex societal problems should be done multidisciplinary instead of mono-disciplinary. In order to give politicians the opportunity to handle complex problems multidisciplinary, multidisciplinary research institutes should be created. These multidisciplinary research institutes would provide politicians with better approaches to handle this type of problem. In these institutes the knowledge necessary for the change of these problems can be created through the use of the Compram methodology which has been developed specifically for handling complex societal problems. In a six step approach, experts, actors and policymakers discuss the content of the problem and the possible changes. The framework method uses interviewing, the Group Decision Room, simulation models and scenario's in a cooperative way. The methodology emphasizes the exchange of knowledge and understanding by communication among and between the experts, actors and politicians meanwhile keeping emotion in mind. The Compram methodology will be further explained in relation to global safety in regard to terrorism, economy, health care and agriculture.

  11. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  12. The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

    2017-07-19

    Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

  13. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  14. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  15. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  16. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  17. Draft EEC method for the determination of the global migration of plastics constituents into fatty-food simulants: Applicability to lacquers, plastics and laminates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Battum, D. van; Rijk, M.A.H.; Verspoor, R.; Rossi, L.

    1982-01-01

    An experimental study was carried out to establish whether the draft EEC method for the determination of the global migration of constituents from plastics packaging materials into fatty food stimulants could be applied to all plastics, including lacquers and laminates. Some difficulties were

  18. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

  19. New model simulations of the global atmospheric electric circuit driven by thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds: The roles of lightning and sprites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rycroft, Michael J.; Odzimek, Anna; Arnold, Neil F.

    2007-01-01

    discharge from the base of a thunderstorm increases the ionospheric potential above the thundercloud by 0.0013%. Assuming the ionosphere to be an equipotential surface, this discharge increases the current flowing in the global circuit and the fair-weather electric field also by 0.0013%. A moderate positive...

  20. Computer Simulation of Global Profiles of Carbon Dioxide Using a Pulsed, 2-Micron, Coherent-Detection, Column-Content DIAL System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavaya, Michael J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Koch, Grady J.; Yu, Jirong; Frehlich, Rod G.

    2009-01-01

    We present preliminary results of computer simulations of the error in measuring carbon dioxide mixing ratio profiles from earth orbit. The simulated sensor is a pulsed, 2-micron, coherent-detection lidar alternately operating on at least two wavelengths. The simulated geometry is a nadir viewing lidar measuring the column content signal. Atmospheric absorption is modeled using FASCODE3P software with the HITRAN 2004 absorption line data base. Lidar shot accumulation is employed up to the horizontal resolution limit. Horizontal resolutions of 50, 100, and 200 km are shown. Assuming a 400 km spacecraft orbit, the horizontal resolutions correspond to measurement times of about 7, 14, and 28 s. We simulate laser pulse-pair repetition frequencies from 1 Hz to 100 kHz. The range of shot accumulation is 7 to 2.8 million pulse-pairs. The resultant error is shown as a function of horizontal resolution, laser pulse-pair repetition frequency, and laser pulse energy. The effect of different on and off pulse energies is explored. The results are compared to simulation results of others and to demonstrated 2-micron operating points at NASA Langley.

  1. Global Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Peter Ping

    2013-01-01

    Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

  2. Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

    2016-01-01

    The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

  3. The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, L.J.; Wyman, B.L.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Ming, Y.; Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Ginoux, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Austin, J.; Alaka, G.; Cooke, W.F.; Delworth, T.L.; Freidenreich, S.M.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Held, I.M.; Hurlin, W.J.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, Y.; Magi, B.I.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Naik, V.; Nath, M.J.; Pincus, R.; Ploshay, J.J.; Ramaswamy, V.; Seman, C.J.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Stern, W.F.; Stouffer, R.J.; Wilson, R.J.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Zeng, F.

    2011-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future-for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth's surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of

  4. Global Europa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian

    2010-01-01

    at the mythology of ‘global Europa' - the EU in the world. It concludes with a reflection on the way in which the many diverse myths of global Europa compete for daily attention, whether as lore, ideology, or pleasure. In this respect the mythology of global Europa is part of our everyday existence, part of the EU...

  5. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  6. Global usability

    CERN Document Server

    Douglas, Ian

    2011-01-01

    The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

  7. Downwelling Longwave Fluxes at Continental Surfaces-A Comparison of Observations with GCM Simulations and Implications for the Global Land-Surface Radiation Budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Prata, A. J.

    1996-03-01

    Previous work suggests that general circulation (global climate) models have excess net radiation at land surfaces, apparently due to overestimates in downwelling shortwave flux and underestimates in upwelling long-wave flux. Part of this excess, however, may be compensated for by an underestimate in downwelling longwave flux. Long term observations of the downwelling longwave component at several land stations in Europe, the United States, Australia, and Antarctica suggest that climate models (four are used, as in previous studies) underestimate this flux component on an annual basis by up to 10 W m2, yet with low statistical significance. It is probable that the known underestimate in boundary-layer air temperature contributes to this, as would low model cloudiness and neglect of minor gases such as methane, nitrogen oxide, and the freons. The bias in downwelling longwave flux, together with those found earlier for downwelling shortwave and upwlling long-wave fluxes, are consistent with the model bias found previously for net radiation. All annually averaged fluxes and biases are deduced for global land as a whole.

  8. Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Huntzinger, Deborah N; Schwalm, Christopher R; Michalak, Anna M; Cook, Robert; Ciais, Philippe; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K; Lei, Huimin; Mao, Jiafu; Pan, Shufen; Post, Wilfred M; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ren, Wei; Ricciuto, Daniel; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Zeng, Ning

    2015-06-01

    Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land-atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process-based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century-long (1901-2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation-based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15  g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr -1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr -1 during 2001-2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40-65°N latitude whereas the largest cross-model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901-2010 ranges from -70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble-estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks-even though the responses varied

  9. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  10. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  11. Effects of Model Resolution and Ocean Mixing on Forced Ice-Ocean Physical and Biogeochemical Simulations Using Global and Regional System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Meibing; Deal, Clara; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Matrai, Patricia; Roberts, Andrew; Osinski, Robert; Lee, Younjoo J.; Frants, Marina; Elliott, Scott; Jeffery, Nicole; Hunke, Elizabeth; Wang, Shanlin

    2018-01-01

    The current coarse-resolution global Community Earth System Model (CESM) can reproduce major and large-scale patterns but is still missing some key biogeochemical features in the Arctic Ocean, e.g., low surface nutrients in the Canada Basin. We incorporated the CESM Version 1 ocean biogeochemical code into the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and coupled it with a sea-ice algal module to investigate model limitations. Four ice-ocean hindcast cases are compared with various observations: two in a global 1° (40˜60 km in the Arctic) grid: G1deg and G1deg-OLD with/without new sea-ice processes incorporated; two on RASM's 1/12° (˜9 km) grid R9km and R9km-NB with/without a subgrid scale brine rejection parameterization which improves ocean vertical mixing under sea ice. Higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice extent, ice thickness, and ice algae. In the Bering Sea shelf, only higher resolution contributed to lower model errors in salinity, nitrate (NO3), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). In the Arctic Basin, model errors in mixed layer depth (MLD) were reduced 36% by brine rejection parameterization, 20% by new sea-ice processes, and 6% by higher resolution. The NO3 concentration biases were caused by both MLD bias and coarse resolution, because of excessive horizontal mixing of high NO3 from the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin in coarse resolution models. R9km showed improvements over G1deg on NO3, but not on Chl-a, likely due to light limitation under snow and ice cover in the Arctic Basin.

  12. The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation characteristics with prescribed SSTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Balaji, V.; Benson, R.; Chen, J.-H.; Chen, X.; Donner, L. J.; Dunne, J. P.; Dunne, Krista A.; Durachta, J.; Fan, S.-M.; Freidenreich, S. M.; Garner, S. T.; Ginoux, P.; Harris, L. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krasting, J. P.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Liang, Z.; Lin, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Malyshev, S. L.; Mason, E.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Ming, Y.; Naik, V.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Phillipps, P.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Robinson, T.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Seman, C. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Shen, Z.; Shin, H.; Silvers, L.; Wilson, J. R.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Wyman, B.; Xiang, B.

    2018-01-01

    In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part 1, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode—with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice distribution—is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top‐of‐atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part 2, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.

  13. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

  14. Global Mindset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    2016-01-01

    The concept of Global Mindset (GM) – the way to think about the global reality – is on the agenda of multinational companies concomitant with the increase in global complexity, uncertainty and diversity. In spite of a number of studies, the concept is still fluid and far from a managerial.......e. the capability to sense (quickly), reflect (constructively) and act purposefully (for mutual benefit). A case on an MNC is used at the end to show the organizational manifestations of a GM....

  15. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edlund Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

  16. Simulation of Cloud-aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP Attenuated Backscatter Profiles Using the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Stuart

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To permit the calculation of the radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols, we have linked our aerosol-chemical transport model (CTMGLOMAP to a new radiation module (UKCARADAER. In order to help assess and improve the accuracy of the radiation code, in particular the height dependence of the predicted scattering, we have developed a module that simulates attenuated backscatter (ABS profiles that would be measured by the satellite-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP if it were to sample an atmosphere with the same aerosol loading as predicted by the CTM. Initial results of our comparisons of the predicted ABS profiles with actual CALIOP data are encouraging but some differences are noted, particularly in marine boundary layers where the scattering is currently under-predicted and in dust layers where it is often over-predicted. The sources of these differences are being investigated.

  17. Ab initio calculation of a global potential, vibrational energies, and wave functions for HCN/HNC, and a simulation of the (A-tilde)-(X-tilde) emission spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Joel M.; Gazdy, Bela; Bentley, Joseph A.; Lee, Timothy J.; Dateo, Christopher E.

    1993-01-01

    A potential energy surface for the HCN/HNC system which is a fit to extensive, high-quality ab initio, coupled-cluster calculations is presented. All HCN and HNC states with energies below the energy of the first delocalized state are reported and characterized. Vibrational transition energies are compared with all available experimental data on HCN and HNC, including high CH-overtone states up to 23,063/cm. A simulation of the (A-tilde)-(X-tilde) stimulated emission pumping (SEP) spectrum is also reported, and the results are compared to experiment. Franck-Condon factors are reported for odd bending states of HCN, with one quantum of vibrational angular momentum, in order to compare with the recent assignment by Jonas et al. (1992), on the basis of axis-switching arguments of a number of previously unassigned states in the SEP spectrum.

  18. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

  19. Mixed multiscale finite element methods using approximate global information based on partial upscaling

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Mishev, IIya

    2009-01-01

    The use of limited global information in multiscale simulations is needed when there is no scale separation. Previous approaches entail fine-scale simulations in the computation of the global information. The computation of the global information

  20. Simulated variations of eolian dust from inner Asian deserts at the mid-Pliocene, last glacial maximum, and present day: contributions from the regional tectonic uplift and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Zhengguo; Liu, Xiaodong; An, Zhisheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG), Institute of Earth Environment, Xi' an (China); Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2011-12-15

    Northern Tibetan Plateau uplift and global climate change are regarded as two important factors responsible for a remarkable increase in dust concentration originating from inner Asian deserts during the Pliocene-Pleistocene period. Dust cycles during the mid-Pliocene, last glacial maximum (LGM), and present day are simulated with a global climate model, based on reconstructed dust source scenarios, to evaluate the relative contributions of the two factors to the increment of dust sedimentation fluxes. In the focused downwind regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau/North Pacific, the model generally produces a light eolian dust mass accumulation rate (MAR) of 7.1/0.28 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr during the mid-Pliocene, a heavier MAR of 11.6/0.87 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr at present, and the heaviest MAR of 24.5/1.15 g/cm{sup 2}/kyr during the LGM. Our results are in good agreement with marine and terrestrial observations. These MAR increases can be attributed to both regional tectonic uplift and global climate change. Comparatively, the climatic factors, including the ice sheet and sea surface temperature changes, have modulated the regional surface wind field and controlled the intensity of sedimentation flux over the Loess Plateau. The impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift, which increased the areas of inland deserts, is more important over the North Pacific. The dust MAR has been widely used in previous studies as an indicator of inland Asian aridity; however, based on the present results, the interpretation needs to be considered with greater caution that the MAR is actually not only controlled by the source areas but the surface wind velocity. (orig.)

  1. Gendering Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siim, Birte

    2009-01-01

    The current global financial situation bluntly and brutally brings home the fact that the global and local are closely connected in times of opportunity as well as crises. The articles in this issue of Asia Insights are about ontra-action between Asia, particularly China, and the Nordic countries...

  2. Developing Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Annette Skovsted

    2017-01-01

    This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

  3. Global Uddannelse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Rosendal

    Antologien handler om "demokratiproblemer i den globale sammenhæng" (del I) og "demokratiproblemer i uddannelse og for de offentligt ansatte" (del II), bundet sammen af et mellemstykke, der rækker ud mod begge poler både det globale og det lokale ved at knytte det til forholdet mellem marked...

  4. Global Mindsets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives seeks to tackle a topic that is relatively new in research and practice, and is considered by many to be critical for firms seeking to conduct global business. It argues that multiple mindsets exist (across and within organizations), that they operate...... in a global context, and that they are dynamic and undergo change and action. Part of the mindset(s) may depend upon place, situation and context where individuals and organizations operate. The book will examine the notion of "mindset" is situational and dynamic, especially in a global setting, why...... it is important for future scholars and managers and how it could be conceptualized. Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives is split into two major sections; the first examines where the literature currently is with respect to the knowledge in the field and what conceptual frameworks guide the thinking...

  5. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed