WorldWideScience

Sample records for global summer monsoons

  1. What drives the global summer monsoon over the past millennium?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    The global summer monsoon precipitation (GSMP) provides a fundamental measure for changes in the annual cycle of the climate system and hydroclimate. We investigate mechanisms governing decadal-centennial variations of the GSMP over the past millennium with a coupled climate model's (ECHO-G) simulation forced by solar-volcanic (SV) radiative forcing and greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. We show that the leading mode of GSMP is a forced response to external forcing on centennial time scale with a globally uniform change of precipitation across all monsoon regions, whereas the second mode represents internal variability on multi-decadal time scale with regional characteristics. The total amount of GSMP varies in phase with the global mean temperature, indicating that global warming is accompanied by amplification of the annual cycle of the climate system. The northern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (NHSMP) responds to GHG forcing more sensitively, while the southern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (SHSMP) responds to the SV radiative forcing more sensitively. The NHSMP is enhanced by increased NH land-ocean thermal contrast and NH-minus-SH thermal contrast. On the other hand, the SHSMP is strengthened by enhanced SH subtropical highs and the east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The strength of the GSMP is determined by the factors controlling both the NHSMP and SHSMP. Intensification of GSMP is associated with (a) increased global land-ocean thermal contrast, (b) reinforced east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and (c) enhanced circumglobal SH subtropical highs. The physical mechanisms revealed here will add understanding of future change of the global monsoon. (orig.)

  2. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  3. The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2011-11-15

    In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5 C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at

  4. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  5. Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moumita Saha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon is a challenging task due to its complex and nonlinear behavior. A large number of global climatic variables with varying interaction patterns over years influence monsoon. Various statistical and neural prediction models have been proposed for forecasting monsoon, but many of them fail to capture variability over years. The skill of predictor variables of monsoon also evolves over time. In this article, we propose a joint-clustering of monsoon years and predictors for understanding and predicting the monsoon. This is achieved by subspace clustering algorithm. It groups the years based on prevailing global climatic condition using statistical clustering technique and subsequently for each such group it identifies significant climatic predictor variables which assist in better prediction. Prediction model is designed to frame individual cluster using random forest of regression tree. Prediction of aggregate and regional monsoon is attempted. Mean absolute error of 5.2% is obtained for forecasting aggregate Indian summer monsoon. Errors in predicting the regional monsoons are also comparable in comparison to the high variation of regional precipitation. Proposed joint-clustering based ensemble model is observed to be superior to existing monsoon prediction models and it also surpasses general nonclustering based prediction models.

  6. Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2011-08-01

    For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

  7. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  8. The Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over the South of China and its Response to Asian Monsoon at the Turning Points of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huan; Li, Dongliang

    2017-04-01

    Under the background of global warming, decadal variability of the summer precipitation in the South of China and the Asian monsoon experienced mutations at around the end of 1970s, the beginning of 1990s and 21st century. We examined the external and internal forcings which may cause the mutations and diagnosed the mechanism. Human emission of CO2 has always been the fatal reason for global warming, and it is also the primary reason for the precipitation increasing over Yangtze-Huai river basin at the end of the 1970s. The Yangtze-Huai river basin and South China demonstrated more summer rainfall after 1993. This can be explained by the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon caused by the positive anomaly of summer SST over northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. A significant trend in the enhancement of sensible heat over the TP has exerted some considerable influence on the reinforce of the EASM, accompanied by the northward migration of the summer precipitation belt shifting northward at the beginning of 21st century.

  9. Transport of regional pollutions to UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon - A CTM study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian; Bian, Jianchun; Lu, Daren

    2013-04-01

    We use a 3-D global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) GEOS-Chem to simulate the observed Asian Summer Monsoon transport of biomass burning tracers HCN and CO from local emissions to UTLS. By analyzing the satellite observations, we focus on the distribution and spatial-temporal variation of HCN and CO concentration in UTLS. The model simulations capture well the main features of distribution of HCN and CO compared with satellite observations. Recent studies (Li et al., 2009; Randel et al., 2010) indicated that regional emissions may play an important role controlling the distribution and variation of HCN in tropical UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon seasons, mainly due to the local dynamical uplift of Asian Summer Monsoon. By using GEOS-Chem simulations, we will analyze the UTLS distribution and variation of HCN and CO from emissions of different regions including S.E. Asia, Boreal Asia, Indonesia and Australia, Africa, Europe, Northern America and Southern America. According to the amount and seasonal variability of emissions, the contribution of biomass burning and biofuel burning emissions of different regions to the highly concentrated HCN and CO in UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon seasons will be discussed, individually.

  10. Atmospheric circulation characteristics associated with the onset of Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongyin; Pan, Jing

    2006-12-01

    The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer monsoon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea (SCS) and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump (from 25° 28°N to around 30°N) occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere (500 200 hPa) and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.

  11. Modelling the Asian summer monsoon using CCAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Kim Chi; McGregor, John L. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2009-02-15

    A ten-year mean (1989-1998) climatology of the Asian summer monsoon is studied using the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale NCEP reanalyses. The aim of the current study is to validate the model results against previous work on this topic, in order to identify model strengths and weaknesses in simulating the Asian summer monsoon. The model results are compared with available observations and are presented in two parts. In the first part, the mean summer rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and winds are compared with the observations. The second part focuses on validation of the monsoon onset. The model captures the mean characteristics such as the cross-equatorial flow of low-level winds over the Indian Ocean and near the Somali coast, rainfall patterns, onset indices, northward movements, active-break and revival periods. (orig.)

  12. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuyan; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Hua

    2017-01-01

    The impact of the total effects due to anthropogenic aerosols from global, East Asian, and non-East Asian sources on East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system is studied using an aerosol-climate online model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero. The results show that the summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface reduce by 4.8 and 5.0 W m- 2, respectively, due to the increases of global aerosol emissions in 2000 relative to 1850. Changes in radiations and their resulting changes in heat and water transport and cloud fraction contribute together to the surface cooling over EAMR in summer. The increases in global anthropogenic aerosols lead to a decrease of 2.1 K in summer mean surface temperature and an increase of 0.4 hPa in summer mean surface pressure averaged over EAMR, respectively. It is shown that the changes in surface temperature and pressure are significantly larger over land than ocean, thus decreasing the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure. This results in the marked anomalies of north and northeast winds over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans in summer, thereby weakening the EASM. The summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR reduces by 12%. The changes in non-East Asian aerosol emissions play a more important role in inducing the changes of local temperature and pressure, and thus significantly exacerbate the weakness of the EASM circulation due to local aerosol changes. The weakening of circulation due to both is comparable, and even the effect of non-local aerosols is larger in individual regions. The changes of local and non-local aerosols contribute comparably to the reductions in precipitation over oceans, whereas cause opposite changes over eastern China. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol changes outside East Asia in the impact of the changes of anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.

  13. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a ''wet-gets-wetter'' trend pattern and indirectly a ''dry-gets-drier'' trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms. (orig.)

  14. Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received. 77% of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore,.

  15. Late Holocene anti-phase change in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Shugang; Wang, Xulong; Roberts, Helen M.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Cheng, Peng; Lu, Yanchou; An, Zhisheng

    2018-05-01

    Changes in East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity have played a pivotal role in the prosperity and decline of society in the past, and will be important for future climate scenarios. However, the phasing of changes in the intensity of East Asian summer and winter monsoons on millennial and centennial timescales during the Holocene is unclear, limiting our ability to understand the factors driving past and future changes in the monsoon system. Here, we present a high resolution (up to multidecadal) loess record for the last 3.3 ka from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau that clearly demonstrates the relationship between changes in the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons, particularly at multicentennial scales. At multimillennial scales, the East Asian summer monsoon shows a steady weakening, while the East Asian winter monsoon intensifies continuously. At multicentennial scales, a prominent ∼700-800 yr cycle in the East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity is observed, and here too the two monsoons are anti-phase. We conclude that multimillennial changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while multicentennial changes can be correlated with solar activity and changing strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  16. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  17. The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon to a Global Warming Scenario

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    Stan, C.; Jin, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to the abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is investigated using the Super-Parameterized Community Climate Model, version 4 (SP-CCSM4). The EASM precipitation and circulation intensify in response to global warming and these changes are related to the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). The displacement of WNPSH is caused by two mechanisms: i) the increase of sea surface temperature and ii) the reduction of latent heat flux over the South China Sea and adjacent western Pacific Ocean. The changes in the surface fluxes over the tropics induce a Gill-type anti-cyclonic circulation to the north of the heating anomaly and a Rossy wave train from the tropics into the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. The westerly anomalies on the northern side of the anticyclone strengthen the southwesterly flow on the western edge of WNPSH. This flow further affects the wind anomalies and moisture transport over East Asia.

  18. Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

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    Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

    2017-10-27

    Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

  19. Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

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    Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

    2018-02-01

    The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

  20. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer ... 2008 summer monsoon rainfall based on the model were also found to be in good agreement with the ..... nificant on the basis of a one-tailed test of Student's.

  1. Summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over eastern Arabian Sea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Significant power is seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer ... Intraseasonal oscillation; wavelet analysis; Indian summer monsoon. J. Earth .... be caused by synoptic scale systems, in conformity with the ...

  2. Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

  3. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  4. Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

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    Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2018-01-01

    Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

  5. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  6. Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascale, Salvatore; Boos, William R.; Bordoni, Simona; Delworth, Thomas L.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Future changes in the North American monsoon, a circulation system that brings abundant summer rains to vast areas of the North American Southwest, could have significant consequences for regional water resources. How this monsoon will change with increasing greenhouse gases, however, remains unclear, not least because coarse horizontal resolution and systematic sea-surface temperature biases limit the reliability of its numerical model simulations. Here we investigate the monsoon response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations using a 50-km-resolution global climate model which features a realistic representation of the monsoon climatology and its synoptic-scale variability. It is found that the monsoon response to CO2 doubling is sensitive to sea-surface temperature biases. When minimizing these biases, the model projects a robust reduction in monsoonal precipitation over the southwestern United States, contrasting with previous multi-model assessments. Most of this precipitation decline can be attributed to increased atmospheric stability, and hence weakened convection, caused by uniform sea-surface warming. These results suggest improved adaptation measures, particularly water resource planning, will be required to cope with projected reductions in monsoon rainfall in the American Southwest.

  7. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y; Maneesha, K.

    peak monsoon (October–November) season and concluded that the frequency of cyclones is modulated by negative and positive IOD rather than El-Nino and La-Nina. In this study, the relationship between southwest monsoon rainfall (June–September) and TNDC... Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season Y Sadhuram∗ and K Maneesha CSIR–National Institute of Oceanography, 176, Lawsons Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam 530 017, India...

  8. The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

    1989-04-01

    In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric

  9. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

    2015-02-01

    The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

  10. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    relationship between Indian Ocean Dipole Mode. Index (IODMI) and the ... 2013) in the cyclogenesis over north Indian Ocean ..... Indian summer monsoon; J. Climate 17 3141–3155. ... Murakami H, Wang B and Kitoh A 2011 Future change.

  11. Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on Surface Ozone Pattern in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shu; Wang, Tijian; Huang, Xing; Pu, Xi; Li, Mengmeng; Chen, Pulong; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Wang, Minghuai

    2018-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone plays a key role in regional and global atmospheric and climate systems. In East Asia, ozone can be affected both in concentration level and spatial pattern by typical monsoon climate. This paper uses three different indices to identify the strength of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and explores the possible impact of EASM intensity on the ozone pattern through synthetic and process analysis. The difference in ozone between three strong and three weak monsoon years was analyzed using the simulations from regional climate model RegCM4-Chem. It was found that EASM intensity can significantly influence the spatial distribution of ozone in the lower troposphere. When EASM is strong, ozone in the eastern part of China (28°N - 42° N) is reduced, but the inverse is detected in the north and south. The surface ozone difference ranges from -7 to 7 ppbv during the 3 months (June to August) of the EASM, with the most obvious difference in August. Difference of the 3 months' average ozone ranges from -3.5 to 4 ppbv. Process analysis shows that the uppermost factor controlling ozone level during summer monsoon seasons is the chemistry process. Interannual variability of EASM can impact the spatial distribution of ozone through wind in the lower troposphere, cloud cover, and downward shortwave radiation, which affect the transport and chemical formation of ozone. The phenomenon should be addressed when considering the interaction between ozone and the climate in East Asia region.

  12. Why is Bay of Bengal warmer than Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    the summer monsoon. In the Arabian Sea, the winds associated with the summer monsoon are stronger and favour the transfer of heat to deeper layers owing to overturning and turbulent mixing. In contrast, the weaker winds over the bay force a relatively...

  13. Glacial-interglacial water cycle, global monsoon and atmospheric methane changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Zhengtang; Wu, Haibin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); Zhou, Xin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); University of Science and Technology of China, School of Earth and Space Sciences and Institute of Polar Environment, Hefei (China)

    2012-09-15

    The causes of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}) changes are still a major contention, in particular with regards to the relative contributions of glacial-interglacial cycles, monsoons in both hemispheres and the late Holocene human intervention. Here, we explore the CH{sub 4} signals in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice records using the methods of timeseries analyses and correlate them with insolation and geological records to address these issues. The results parse out three distinct groups of CH{sub 4} signals attributable to different drivers. The first group ({proportional_to}80% variance), well tracking the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record, is attributable to glacial-interglacial modulation on the global water cycle with the effects shared by wetlands at all latitudes, from monsoonal and non-monsoonal regions in both hemispheres. The second group ({proportional_to}15% variance), centered at the {proportional_to}10-kyr semi-precession frequency, is linkable with insolation-driven tropical monsoon changes in both hemispheres. The third group ({proportional_to}5% variance), marked by millennial frequencies, is seemingly related with the combined effect of ice-volume and bi-hemispheric insolation changes at the precession bands. These results indicate that bi-hemispheric monsoon changes have been a constant driver of atmospheric CH{sub 4}. This mechanism also partially explains the Holocene CH{sub 4} reversal since {proportional_to}5 kyr BP besides the human intervention. In the light of these results, we propose that global monsoon can be regarded as a system consisting of two main integrated components, one primarily driven by the oscillations of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to the low-latitude summer insolation changes, anti-phase between the two hemispheres (i.e. the ITCZ monsoon component); and another modulated by the glacial-interglacial cycles, mostly synchronous at the global scale (i.e. the glacial-interglacial monsoon

  14. On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the EQUINOO in the CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnu, S.; Francis, P. A.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

    2018-03-01

    Several recent studies have shown that positive (negative) phase of Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) is favourable (unfavourable) to the Indian summer monsoon. However, many ocean-atmosphere global coupled models, including the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 have difficulty in reproducing this link realistically. In this study, we analyze the retrospective forecasts by the CFS model for the period 1982-2010 with an objective to identify the reasons behind the failure of the model to simulate the observed links between Indian summer monsoon and EQUINOO. It is found that, in the model hindcasts, the rainfall in the core monsoon region was mainly due to westward propagating synoptic scale systems, that originated from the vicinity of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). Our analysis shows that unlike in observations, in the CFS, majority of positive (negative) EQUINOO events are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events in the Pacific. In addition to this, there is a strong link between EQUINOO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the model. We show that, during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, northward propagating TCZs remained stationary over the Bay of Bengal for longer period compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD. As a result, compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD, during a negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, more westward propagating synoptic scale systems originated from the vicinity of TCZ and moved on to the core monsoon region, which resulted in higher rainfall over this region in the CFS. We further show that frequent, though short-lived, westward propagating systems, generated near the vicinity of TCZ over the Bay moved onto the mainland were responsible for less number of break monsoon spells during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD in the model hindcasts. This study underlines the necessity for improving the skill of the coupled models, particularly CFS model, to simulate the links between EQUINOO/IOD and

  15. quantitative precipitation forecasts during the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    65

    the Indian Summer Monsoon: Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) Approach ... 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia ... are evaluated over India using the Contiguous Rainfall Area (CRA) verification technique.

  16. Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

  17. Linking the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Global Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.

    2016-02-01

    This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

  18. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  19. On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

  20. Surface temperature pattern of the Indian Ocean before summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.; Rao, D.P.

    , suggests that the position of the warmer areas in the Bay of Bengal in May is an indicator of the subsequent summer rainfall over India. The statistical method adopted for the long range forcasting of the Indian summer monsoon gives very little...

  1. First detection of ammonia (NH3 in the Asian summer monsoon upper troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Höpfner

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Ammonia (NH3 has been detected in the upper troposphere by the analysis of averaged MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding infrared limb-emission spectra. We have found enhanced amounts of NH3 within the region of the Asian summer monsoon at 12–15 km altitude. Three-monthly, 10° longitude  ×  10° latitude average profiles reaching maximum mixing ratios of around 30 pptv in this altitude range have been retrieved, with a vertical resolution of 3–8 km and estimated errors of about 5 pptv. These observations show that loss processes during transport from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere within the Asian monsoon do not deplete the air entirely of NH3. Thus, ammonia might contribute to the so-called Asian tropopause aerosol layer by the formation of ammonium aerosol particles. On a global scale, outside the monsoon area and during different seasons, we could not detect enhanced values of NH3 above the actual detection limit of about 3–5 pptv. This upper bound helps to constrain global model simulations.

  2. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  3. Global effect of irrigation and its impact on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guimberteau, Matthieu [Universite de Paris 6, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Laval, Katia [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Perrier, Alain [UFR Physique de l' Environnement, AgroParisTech, Paris (France); Polcher, Jan [CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

    2012-09-15

    In a context of increased demand for food and of climate change, the water consumptions associated with the agricultural practice of irrigation focuses attention. In order to analyze the global influence of irrigation on the water cycle, the land surface model ORCHIDEE is coupled to the GCM LMDZ to simulate the impact of irrigation on climate. A 30-year simulation which takes into account irrigation is compared with a simulation which does not. Differences are usually not significant on average over all land surfaces but hydrological variables are significantly affected by irrigation over some of the main irrigated river basins. Significant impacts over the Mississippi river basin are shown to be contrasted between eastern and western regions. An increase in summer precipitation is simulated over the arid western region in association with enhanced evapotranspiration whereas a decrease in precipitation occurs over the wet eastern part of the basin. Over the Indian peninsula where irrigation is high during winter and spring, a delay of 6 days is found for the mean monsoon onset date when irrigation is activated, leading to a significant decrease in precipitation during May to July. Moreover, the higher decrease occurs in June when the water requirements by crops are maximum, exacerbating water scarcity in this region. A significant cooling of the land surfaces occurs during the period of high irrigation leading to a decrease of the land-sea heat contrast in June, which delays the monsoon onset. (orig.)

  4. Changes in the in-phase relationship between the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoons during the past five decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-Y. Yu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the decadal changes in the in-phase relationship between Indian summer monsoon and the subsequent Australian summer monsoon using observational data from 1950–2005. The in-phase relationship is the tendency for a strong Indian summer monsoon to be followed by a strong Australian summer monsoon and vice versa. It is found that the in-phase relationship was weak during the late 1950s and early 1960s, strengthened to a maximum in the early 1970s just before the 1976/77 Pacific climate shift, then declined until the late 1990s. Pacific SST anomalies are noticed to have strong persistence from boreal to austral summer, providing the memory to connect the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoon. The simultaneous correlation between the Pacific SST anomalies and the Indian summer monsoon is always strong. It is the weakening and strengthening of the simultaneous correlation between the Australian summer monsoon and the Pacific SST anomalies that contributes to the decadal variations of the in-phase monsoon relation. This study suggests that the interaction between the Australian monsoon and the Pacific Ocean is crucial to tropical climate variability and has experienced significant changes over the past five decades.

  5. Initial results from the StratoClim aircraft campaign in the Asian Monsoon in summer 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rex, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Asian Monsoon System is one of the Earth's largest and most energetic weather systems. Monsoon rainfall is critical to feeding over a billion people in Asia and the monsoon circulation affects weather patterns over the entire northern hemisphere. The Monsoon also acts like an enormous elevator, pumping vast amounts of air and pollutants from the surface up to the tropopause region at levels above 16km altitude, from where air can ascend into the stratosphere, where it spreads globally. Thus the monsoon affects the chemical composition of the global tropopause region and the stratosphere, and hence plays a key role for the composition of the UTS. Dynamically the monsoon circulation leads to the formation of a large anticyclone at tropopause levels above South Asia - the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Satellite images show a large cloud of aerosols directly above the monsoon, the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). In July to August 2017 the international research project StratoClim carried out the first in-situ aircraft measurements in the AMA and the ATAL with the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica. Around 8 scientific flights took place in the airspaces of Nepal, India and Bangladesh and have horizontally and vertically probed the AMA and have well characterized the ATAL along flight patterns that have been carefully designed by a theory, modelling and satellite data analysing team in the field. The aircraft campaign has been complemented by launches of research balloons from ground stations in Nepal, Bangladesh, China and Palau. The presentation will give an overview of the StratoClim project, the aircraft and balloon activities and initial results from the StratoClim Asian Monsoon campaign in summer 2017.

  6. Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Kutzbach, J. [Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Harrison, S.P. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena (Germany); Otto-Bliesner, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

    2004-03-01

    The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations. (orig.)

  7. Development of summer monsoon and onset of continuous rains over central west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    rains happening during the last phase of monsoon development as a consequence of and after (2-5 weeks) the establishment of monsoon circulation or monsoon front. Summer monsoon front, as the term 'monsoon' originally meant, is to be delineated from...

  8. Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

    2018-03-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

  9. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon: Sensitivity to ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the present study, the assessment of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for seasonal forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with different persistent SST is reported. Towards achieving the objective, 30-year model climatology has been ...

  10. Observations of barrier layer formation in the Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vinayachandran, P.N.; Murty, V.S.N.; RameshBabu, V.

    monsoon, J. Geophys. Res., 107(C12), 8018, doi:10.1029/2001JC000831, 2002. 1. Introduction [2] Several monsoon lows and depressions, that contrib- ute substantially to the summer monsoon rainfall of the Indian subcontinent, form over the Bay of Bengal... August–September, 1990,Murtyetal.[1996]foundthatthemixedlayerbasedon a temperature criterion is deeper than that using density. The regionwithrelativelyfreshwaterwithhighSSTappearstobe an excellent breeding ground for the formation of monsoon depressions...

  11. Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal ensemble prediction system. Kailas Sonawane1,∗. , O P Sreejith1, D R Pattanaik1,. Mahendra Benke1, Nitin Patil2 and D S Pai1. 1India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, India. 2Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate ...

  12. The link between Tibetan Plateau monsoon and Indian summer precipitation: a linear diagnostic perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Fei; Sielmann, Frank; Zhu, Xiuhua; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei; Peng, Ting; Wang, Lei

    2017-12-01

    The thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is analyzed to investigate the formation and variability of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon (TPSM), which affects the climates of the surrounding regions, in particular the Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Dynamic composites and statistical analyses indicate that the Indian summer monsoon precipitation is less/greater than normal during the strong/weak TPSM. Strong (weak) TPSM is associated with an anomalous near surface cyclone (anticyclone) over the western part of the Tibetan Plateau, enhancing (reducing) the westerly flow along its southern flank, suppressing (favoring) the meridional flow of warm and moist air from the Indian ocean and thus cutting (providing) moisture supply for the northern part of India and its monsoonal rainfall. These results are complemented by a dynamic and thermodynamic analysis: (i) A linear thermal vorticity forcing primarily describes the influence of the asymmetric heating of TP generating an anomalous stationary wave flux. Composite analysis of anomalous stationary wave flux activity (after Plumb in J Atmos Sci 42:217-229, 1985) strongly indicate that non-orographic effects (diabatic heating and/or interaction with transient eddies) of the Tibetan Plateau contribute to the generation of an anomalous cyclone (anti-cyclone) over the western TP. (ii) Anomalous TPSM generation shows that strong TPSM years are related to the positive surface sensible heating anomalies over the eastern TP favoring the strong diabatic heating in summer. While negative TPSM years are associated with the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the preceding spring, enhancing northerly dry-cold air intrusions into TP, which may weaken the condensational heat release in the middle and upper troposphere, leading to a weaker than normal summer monsoon over the TP in summer.

  13. Validation of the HIRHAM-Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Polanski

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40 data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

  14. Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gottschaldt, Klaus Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, V.; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

    2018-01-01

    This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth

  15. Stratospheric Influence on Summer Monsoon and Associated Planetary Wave Breaking and Mixing in the Subtropical Tropopause Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubis, S. W.; Nakamura, N.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have shown that the monsoonal circulation plays an important role in planetary wave breaking (PWB). The highest frequency of breaking events occurs just downstream (east) of the monsoon region in summer. PWB induces mixing of potential vorticity (PV) and hence, alter the horizontal mixing in the atmosphere. Here, the authors hypothesize that the stratospheric easterlies in the boreal summer also play a significant role in the PWB and mixing associated with the summer monsoon. If the stratospheric winds were westerly in boreal summer, the frequency of PWB would be decreased due to more waves penetrating in the stratosphere, resulting in less horizontal PWB and thus reduced mixing in the subtropical tropopause region. The hypothesis is examined by using a set of idealized moist GFDL simulations. The monsoon circulation is produced by adding a land-sea contrast with a Gaussian-shaped mountains positioned in the midlatitudes. Other key ingredients for the monsoon, including albedo, oceanic warm pool, and Q-flux, were also ideally imposed in all simulations. Our control simulation produces a summer monsoon-like circulation similar to the observation. In particular, the thermally forced monsoonal circulation forms a prominent closed upper-level anticyclone that dominates the summertime upper-level flow. Associated with this circulation is an upward-bulging tropopause that forms a large reservoir of anomalously low PV. Consistent with previous studies, the well-defined tropospheric jet lies just poleward of the upper-level anticyclone, and acts as a dynamical barrier between the low-PV reservoir over the monsoonal region and the high-PV reservoir in the extratropics. This barrier disappears just northeast of the monsoon area in the jet exit region, allowing more quasi-planetary waves to break in this region. Repetitive wave breaking further weakens the PV gradient, leading to the formation of the surf zone and stronger mixing in this region. To quantify

  16. Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosmans, J. H. C.; Erb, M. P.; Dolan, A. M.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Tuenter, E.; Hilgen, F. J.; Edge, D.; Pope, J. O.; Lourens, L. J.

    2018-05-01

    We examine the response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to separate precession and obliquity forcing, using a set of fully coupled high-resolution models for the first time: EC-Earth, GFDL CM2.1, CESM and HadCM3. We focus on the effect of insolation changes on monsoon precipitation and underlying circulation changes, and find strong model agreement despite a range of model physics, parameterization, and resolution. Our results show increased summer monsoon precipitation at times of increased summer insolation, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, accompanied by a redistribution of precipitation and convection from ocean to land. Southerly monsoon winds over East Asia are strengthened as a consequence of an intensified land-sea pressure gradient. The response of the Indian summer monsoon is less straightforward. Over south-east Asia low surface pressure is less pronounced and winds over the northern Indian Ocean are directed more westward. An Indian Ocean Dipole pattern emerges, with increased precipitation and convection over the western Indian Ocean. Increased temperatures occur during minimum precession over the Indian Ocean, but not during maximum obliquity when insolation is reduced over the tropics and southern hemisphere during northern hemisphere summer. Evaporation is reduced over the northern Indian Ocean, which together with increased precipitation over the western Indian Ocean dampens the increase of monsoonal precipitation over the continent. The southern tropical Indian Ocean as well as the western tropical Pacific (for precession) act as a moisture source for enhanced monsoonal precipitation. The models are in closest agreement for precession-induced changes, with more model spread for obliquity-induced changes, possibly related to a smaller insolation forcing. Our results indicate that a direct response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to insolation forcing is possible, in line with speleothem records but in

  17. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to the performance of summer monsoon rain- fall over India. Variations in the total amount of rainfall have strong socio-economic consequences. Parthasarathy et al .... deviation of rainfall for training period 1961–1995, are 838.4 mm and 89.3 mm respectively. The period. 1949–1960 and 1996–2005 is used for independent.

  18. Predicting onset and withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon in 2016: results of Tipping elements approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The monsoon is the season of rain caused by a global seasonal reverse in winds direction and a change in pressure distribution. The Southwest winds bring summer monsoon to India. The economy of India is able to maintain its GDP in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even two weeks, it can spell disaster because the high population depending on agriculture - 70% of its people directly related to farming. Agriculture, in turn, is dependent on the monsoon. Although the rainy season happens annually between June and September, the time of monsoon season's onset and withdrawal varies within a month from year to year. The important feature of the monsoon is that it starts and ends suddenly. Hence, despite enormous progress having been made in predicting monsoon since 1886, it remains a significant scientific challenge. To make predictions of monsoon timing in 2016, we applied our recently developed method [1]. Our approach is based on a teleconnection between the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP) - Tipping Elements of Indian Summer Monsoon. Both our predictions - for monsoon onset and withdrawal - were made for the Eastern Ghats region (EG-20N,80E) in the central part of India, while the Indian Meteorological Department forecasts monsoon over Kerala - a state at the southern tip of the Indian subcontinent. Our prediction for monsoon onset was published on May 6-th, 2016 [2]. We predicted the monsoon arrival to the EG on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. In fact, monsoon onset was on June 17-th, that was confirmed by information from meteorological stations located around the EG-region. Hence, our prediction of monsoon onset (made 40 days in advance) was correct. We delivered the prediction of monsoon withdrawal on July 27, 2016 [3], announcing the monsoon withdrawal from the EG on October 5-th with a deviation of +/-5 days. The actual monsoon withdrawal started on October 10-th when the relative humidity in the region

  19. Different orbital rhythms in the Asian summer monsoon records from North and South China during the Pleistocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Dekkers, M.J.; Xiao, G.; Yang, X.; Qin, L.; Liu, X; Qiang, X.; Chang, H.; Zhao, H.

    2012-01-01

    Here we construct a Pleistocene astronomical timescale for the Nihewan fluvio–lacustrine sediments (North China), via tuning a stacked summer monsoon index generated from grain size and low-field magnetic susceptibility records to orbital obliquity and precession. Combining the summer monsoon

  20. Orbital-scale nonlinear response of East Asian summer monsoon to its potential driving forces in the late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Shi, Zhengguo; Tan, Liangcheng; Deng, Chenglong

    2018-03-01

    We conducted a statistical study to characterize the nonlinear response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to its potential forcing factors over the last 260 ka on orbital timescales. We find that both variation in solar insolation and global ice volume were responsible for the nonlinear forcing of orbital-scale monsoonal variations, accounting for 80% of the total variance. Specifically, EASM records with dominated precession variance exhibit a more sensitive response to changes in solar insolation during intervals of enhanced monsoon strength, but are less sensitive during intervals of reduced monsoon strength. In the case of global ice volume with 100-ka variance, this difference is not one of sensitivity but rather a difference in baseline conditions, such as the relative areas of land and sea which affected the land-sea thermal gradient. We therefore suggest that EASM records with dominated precession variance recorded the signal of a shift in the location of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and the associated changes in the incidence of torrential rainfall; while for proxies with dominated 100-ka variance, it recorded changes in the land-sea thermal gradient via its effects on non-torrential precipitation.

  1. Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.; Toma, Violeta E. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2012-12-15

    The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere relative to observations. In contrast, a warm bias is found over the northern part of North Pacific and North Atlantic. Excessive precipitation is found along the ITCZ, equatorial Atlantic, equatorial Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south-easterly trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Somali Jet and the subtropical northwestern Pacific high are weaker in CFSv2 relative to the reanalysis. In both systems, the prediction of SST, precipitation and low-level zonal wind has greatest skill in the tropical belt, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling systems capture the global monsoon and the large-scale monsoon wind variability well, while at the same time performing poorly in simulating monsoon precipitation. The Asian monsoon prediction skill increases with the ENSO amplitude, although the models simulate an overly strong impact of ENSO on the monsoon. Overall, the monsoon predictive skill is lower than the ENSO skill in both modeling systems but both systems show greater predictive skill compared to persistence. (orig.)

  2. Interhemispheric Changes in Atlantic Ocean Heat Content and Their Link to Global Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, H.; Lee, S. K.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. The effect of eddies on the NH (SH) poleward of 30° is opposite with heat flux divergence (convergence), which must be balanced by sinking (rising) motion, consistent with a poleward (equatorward) displacement of the jet stream and mean storm track. The mechanism described here could easily be interpreted for the case of strong SAMHT, with the reverse influence on the interhemispheric atmospheric circulation and monsoons. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

  3. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  4. Decreasing Asian summer monsoon intensity after 1860 AD in the global warming epoch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Hai [Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Xi' an, Shaanxi Province (China); Hong, Yetang; Hong, Bin [Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Guiyang (China)

    2012-10-15

    The trend of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity and its nature during the past 100 and 200 years still remain unclear. In this study we reconstructed the ISM intensity during the past 270 years from tree ring {delta}{sup 18}O at Hongyuan, eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The monsoon failures inferred from {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} correlate well with those recorded in ice cores, speleothem, and historical literature sources. 22.6, 59.0, and 110.9-years frequency components in the Hongyuan {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} series, which may be the responses to solar activities, synchronize well with those recorded in other ISM indices. A notable feature of the reconstructed ISM intensity is the gradually decreasing trend from about 1860 to the present, which is inversely related to the increasing temperature trend contemporaneously. Such ''decreasing ISM intensity-increasing temperature'' tendency can also be supported by ice core records and meteorological records over a wide geographic extension. The decrease in sea surface temperature gradient between tropical and north Indian Ocean, and the decrease in land-sea thermal contrast between tropical Indian Ocean and ''Indian sub-continent-western Himalaya'' are possibly responsible for the observed decreasing ISM trend. (orig.)

  5. Increases in aerosol concentrations over eastern China due to the decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jianlei; Liao, Hong; Li, Jianping

    2012-05-01

    China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We show by using a chemical transport model driven by the assimilated meteorological fields that the observed decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon also contributed to the increases in aerosols in China. We find that the simulated aerosol concentrations have strong negative correlations with the strength of the East Asian Summer monsoon. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the summer surface-layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.7% higher in the weakest monsoon years than in the strongest monsoon years. The weakening of the East Asian Summer monsoon increases aerosol concentrations mainly by the changes in atmospheric circulation (the convergence of air pollutants) in eastern China.

  6. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  7. Dynamics and Composition of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschaldt, K. D.; Schlager, H.; Baumann, R.; Bozem, H.; Cai, D. S.; Eyring, V.; Hoor, P. M.; Graf, P.; Joeckel, P.; Jurkat, T.; Voigt, C.; Grewe, V.; Zahn, A.; Ziereis, H.

    2017-12-01

    This study places trace gas observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) obtained with the HALO research aircraft during the ESMVal campaign into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the EMAC model. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from the rest of the year. Air uplifted from the lower troposphere to the tropopause layer dominates the eastern part of the ASMA's interior, while the western part is characterized by subsidence down to the mid-troposphere. Soluble compounds are being washed out when uplifted by convection in the eastern part, where lightning simultaneously replenishes reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere. Net photochemical ozone production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, contrasted by an ozone depleting regime in the mid-troposphere and more neutral conditions in autumn and winter. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank, and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production, as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulation additionally shows entrainment of clean air from the equatorial region by northerly winds at the western ASMA flank. Although the in situ measurements were performed towards the end of summer, the main ingredients needed for their interpretation are present throughout the monsoon season.Subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the ASMA effectively overcome horizontal transport barriers, occur quite frequently, and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA and its outflow into regions around the world.

  8. ANALYSIS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐国强; 朱乾根

    2003-01-01

    With NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and SST for 1998, the paper investigates the features of summer monsoon low-frequency oscillation (LFO) over the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that SCS summer monsoon onset is enhanced because of its LFO. Low-frequency (LF) low-level convergence (divergence) region of SCS is in the LF positive (negative) rainfall area. LFO of the SCS region migrates from south to north in the meridian and from west to east in zonal direction. LF divergence of SCS is vertically compensating to each other between high and low level.

  9. Detecting the influence of ocean process on the moisture supply for India summer monsoon from Satellite Sea Surface Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yueh, S. H.; Liu, W. T.; Fore, A.; Hayashi, A.

    2016-02-01

    A strong contrast in the onset of Indian summer monsoon was observed by independent satellites: average rain rate over India subcontinent (IS) in June was more than doubled in 2013 than 2012 (TRMM); also observed are larger area of wet soil (Aquarius) and high water storage (GRACE). The difference in IS rainfall was contributed to the moisture inputs through west coast of India, estimated from ocean wind (OSCAT2) and water vapor (TMI). This is an interesting testbed for studying the role of ocean on terrestrial water cycle, in particular the Indian monsoon, which has tremendous social-economical impact. What is the source of extra moisture in 2013 or deficit in 2012 for the monsoon onset? Is it possible to quantify the contribution of ocean process that maybe responsible for redistributing the freshwater in favor of the summer monsoon moisture supply? This study aims to identify the influence of ocean processes on the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces, using Aquarius sea surface salinity (SSS). We found two areas in Indian Ocean with high correlation between IS rain rate and Aquarius SSS: one area is in the Arabian Sea adjacent to IS, another area is a horizontal patch from 60°E to 100°E centered around 10°S. On the other hand, E-P (OAflux, TRMM) shows no similar correlation patterns with IS rain. Based on the governing equation of the salt budget in the upper ocean, we define the freshwater flux, F, from the oceanic branch of the water cycle, including contributions from salinity tendency, advection, and subsurface process. The tendency and advection terms are estimated using Aquarius SSS and OSCAR ocean current. We will present results of analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of F and evidence of and hypothesis on how the oceanic processes may enhance the moisture supply for summer Indian monsoon onset in 2013 comparing with 2012. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) has been producing the global soil moisture (SM) every 2-3 days

  10. Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

    2017-10-01

    The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

  11. Variations in swells along Eastern Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Johnson, G.; SanilKumar, V.; Sanjiv, P.C.; Singh, J.; Pednekar, P.S.; AshokKumar, K.; Dora, G.U.; Gowthaman, R.

    A study was carried out to find the variation in wave characteristics along the eastern Arabian Sea and the influence of swells in the nearshore waves at 3 locations during summer monsoon in 2010. Percentage of swells in the measured waves was 75...

  12. ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnections During The Last Millennium In The PMIP3 Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karumuri, A.; Tejavath, C. T.; Chakraborty, S.; Ramesh, R.

    2017-12-01

    Using the available model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June-September; JJAS) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (CE 850-1849; LM), with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; CE 1000-1199 as against the CE 950-AD1350 from the proxy-observations) and Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1550-1749 as against the CE 1500-1850 from proxy observations). Out of the eight available model datasets, we identify seven `realistic' models by validating the corresponding simulated global and Indian mean summer temperatures and mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), and their respective trends, of historical simulations (CMIP5) vintage, with concurrent observations/reanalysis. The models simulate higher (lower) mean summer temperatures in India as well as globally during the MWP (LIA) as compared to the corresponding LM statistics, in confirmation of several proxy data sets. Our Analysis shows a strong negative correlation between the NINO3.4 index and the ISMR and a positive correlation between NINO3.4 and summer temperature over India during the LM, as is observed in the last one-and-half centuries. The magnitude of the simulated ISMR-NINO3.4 index correlations as seen from the available models is found to be higher for the MWP as compared to that for the LIA although they are statistically significant at 0.05 level. The spatial distribution of monsoon-ENSO correlations also shows negative values during the LM just as the current period. Our analysis also shows that the above (below) LM-mean summer temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively higher (lower) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to the La Niñas. Proxy analysis studies by various groups suggest that the rainfall over India during the MWP is higher than that during the LIA. Interestingly, the MWP mean circulation `anomalies' (obtained by comparing the MWP mean circulation with that over the LM period) indicate a westward shift in Walker

  13. Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

    2014-12-01

    The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

  14. The decadal-scale variation of the South Asian summer monsoon onset and its connection with the PDO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, T.; Yamazaki, K.

    2013-12-01

    The summer Asian monsoon shows the abrupt increase of precipitation on the onset phase. It is an interesting and important problem when the summer monsoon onset occurs because natural resources, such as water and renewable energy agricultural product, are influenced by the variation of the summer Asian monsoon. Some researchers suggested the advance of the Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades. We investigated the variation of the Asian monsoon onset using the long-term onset data over Kerala, a state in the southwest region of India, for 1948-2011. We discuss three main questions: 1) how is the variation of the monsoon onset date in the long-term period, 2) how the variation of the onset date is related to variations of atmospheric circulation and SST, and 3) what is the mechanism of such variation. Our main method is composite analysis using monthly-mean data. Though the onset date over Kerala shows the trend toward the early onset in recent three decades, such a trend is not observed in the whole period. It is noteworthy that the onset over Kerala shows the interannual variation on a multi-decadal scale. As regards the early onset years of Kerala, the summer monsoon onset is early over the following regions: the region from the southern Arabian Sea to southwestern India, the region from the southern Bay of Bengal to the Indochina Peninsula and the western North Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the onset is late over southern China, Taiwan and the northern Philippine Sea. In early onset years of Kerala, the sea surface temperature over the northern Pacific Ocean is very similar to the negative PDO. The stationary wave train related with the negative PDO reaches into the Central Asia region, generates warm anomaly there and hence intensifies the land-sea thermal contrast there, which promotes the summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. Though the correlation between the onset over Kerala and the PDO is weak before 1976, it becomes high after

  15. Large-Scale Control of the Arabian Sea Summer Monsoon Inversion and Low Clouds: A New Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. H.; Wang, S. Y.; Hsu, H. H.; Hsu, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Arabian Sea undergoes a so-called summer monsoon inversion that reaches the maximum intensity in August associated with a large amount of low-level clouds. The formation of inversion and low clouds was generally thought to be a local system influenced by the India-Pakistan monsoon advancement. New empirical and numerical evidence suggests that, rather than being a mere byproduct of the nearby monsoon, the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is coupled with a broad-scale monsoon evolution connected across the Africa Sahel, South Asia, and the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP). Several subseasonal variations occur in tandem: The eastward expansion of the Asian-Pacific monsoonal heating likely suppresses the India-Pakistan monsoon while enhancing low-level thermal inversion of Arabian Sea; the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia weakens in August smoothing zonal contrast in geopotential heights (10°N-30°N); the subtropical WNP monsoon trough in the lower troposphere that signals the revival of East Asian summer monsoon matures in August; the Sahel rainfall peaks in August accompanied by an intensified tropical easterly jet. The occurrence of the latter two processes enhances upper-level anticyclones over Africa and WNP and this, in turn, induces subsidence in between over the Arabian Sea. Numerical experiments demonstrate the combined effect of the African and WNP monsoonal heating on the enhancement of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion. Connection is further found in the interannual and decadal variations between the East Asian-WNP monsoon and the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion. In years with reduced low clouds of Arabian Sea, the East Asian midlatitude jet stream remains strong in August while the WNP monsoon trough appears to be weakened. The Arabian Sea inversion (ridge) and WNP trough pattern which forms a dipole structure, is also found to have intensified since the 21st century.

  16. Why the Australian Monsoon Strengthened During the Cold Last Glacial Maximum?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.; Ning, L.

    2017-12-01

    The multi-model ensemble simulation suggests that the global monsoon and most sub-monsoons are weakened during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the lower green-house gases concentration, the presence of the ice-sheets and the weakened seasonal distribution of insolation. In contrast, the Australian monsoon is strengthened during the LGM. The precipitation there increases in austral summer and decreases in austral winter, so that the annual range or monsoonality increases. The strengthened monsoonality is mainly due to the decreased precipitation in austral winter, which is primarily caused by circulation changes, although the reduced atmospheric water vapor also has a moderate contribution. On the other hand, the strengthened Australian summer monsoon rainfall is likely caused by the change of land-sea thermal contrast due to the alteration of land-sea configuration and by the asymmetric change in sea surface temperature (SST) over Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The strengthened land-sea thermal contrast and Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean thermal gradients in the pre-summer monsoon season triggers a cyclonic wind anomaly that is maintained to the monsoon season, thereby increasing summer precipitation. The increased summer precipitation is associated with the increased cloud cover over the land and decreased cloud cover over the ocean. This may weaken the land-sea thermal contrast, which agrees with the paleoclimate reconstruction. The biases between different models are likely related to the different responses of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean in the pre-summer monsoon season.

  17. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  18. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash; Kumar, Prashant; Attada, Raju; Kumar, Raj

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  19. Interdecadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon northward propagation and influences on summer precipitation over East China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Z.; Yang, S.; He, J.; Li, J.; Liang, J.

    2008-08-01

    The interdecadal variation of northward propagation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and summer precipitation in East China have been investigated using daily surface rainfall from a dense rain gauge network in China for 1957 2001, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis, and Global Mean Sea Level Pressure Dataset (GMSLP2) from Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Results in general show a consistent agreement on the interdecadal variability of EASM northward propagations. However, it appears that the interdecadal variation is stronger in NCEP than in ECMWF and CRU datasets. A newly defined normalized precipitation index (NPI), a 5-day running mean rainfall normalized with its standard deviation, clearly depicts the characteristics of summer rainbelt activities in East China in terms of jumps and durations during its northward propagations. The EASM northward propagation shows a prominent interdecadal variation. EASM before late 1970s had a rapid northward advance and a northern edge beyond its normal position. As a result, more summer rainfall occurred for the North China rainy season, Huaihe-River Mei-Yu, and South China Mei-Yu. In contrast, EASM after late 1970s had a slow northward movement and a northern edge located south of its normal position. Less summer precipitation occurred in East China except in Yangtze River basin. The EASM northernmost position (ENP), northernmost intensity (ENI), and EASM have a complex and good relationship at interdecadal timescales. They have significant influences on interdecadal variation of the large-scale precipitation anomalies in East China.

  20. Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pattanaik, D.R. [India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi (India); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50 E-110 E and 10 S-35 N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon

  1. Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

    2018-04-01

    This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

  2. Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation

    OpenAIRE

    T. Shinozaki; M. Uchida; K. Minoura; M. Kondo; S. F. Rella; Y. Shibata

    2011-01-01

    Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ13C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based ...

  3. Transport of short-lived climate forcers/pollutants (SLCF/P) to the Himalayas during the South Asian summer monsoon onset

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristofanelli, P; Putero, D; Landi, T C; Marinoni, A; Duchi, R; Calzolari, F; Bonasoni, P; Adhikary, B; Stocchi, P; Verza, G; Vuillermoz, E; Laj, P; Kang, S; Ming, J

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of six years (2006–2011), equivalent black carbon (eqBC), coarse aerosol mass (PM 1–10 ), and surface ozone (O 3 ), observed during the monsoon onset period at the Nepal Climate Observatory–Pyramid WMO/GAW Global Station (NCO-P, 5079 m a.s.l.), were analyzed to investigate events characterized by a significant increase in these short-lived climate forcers/pollutants (SLCF/P). These events occurred during periods characterized by low (or nearly absent) rain precipitation in the central Himalayas, and they appeared to be related to weakening stages (or ‘breaking’) of the South Asian summer monsoon system. As revealed by the combined analysis of atmospheric circulation, air-mass three-dimensional back trajectories, and satellite measurements of atmospheric aerosol loading, surface open fire, and tropospheric NO x , the large amount of SLCF/P reaching the NCO-P appeared to be related to natural (mineral dust) and anthropogenic emissions occurring within the PBL of central Pakistan (i.e., Thar Desert), the Northwestern Indo-Gangetic plain, and the Himalayan foothills. The systematic occurrence of these events appeared to represent the most important source of SLCF/P inputs into the central Himalayas during the summer monsoon onset period, with possible important implications for the regional climate and for hydrological cycles. (letter)

  4. Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

    2018-03-01

    Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

  5. Apparent relationship between thermal regime in Antarctic waters and Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Menon, H.B.; RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

    ) charts for the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean during 2 contrasting years (1977 and 1979) of summer monsoon over India. The results suggest an apparent relationship between the thermal regimes in the Antarctic waters of the Indian Ocean sector...

  6. Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

    2010-08-01

    We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

  7. Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

  8. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

    2018-02-01

    The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

  9. Summer cooling in the east central Arabian Sea - a process of dynamic response to the southwest monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

    The cooling of the east central Arabian Sea during summer monsoon season is examined using data sets of MONEX '79 and MONSOON '77 programmes. These studies have revealed that downward transfer of heat due to the mixing of warm surface and cold sub...

  10. Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

  11. Lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiao; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Gao, Meng; Zhao, Yuanhong; Shao, Jingyuan

    2018-03-01

    Lower tropospheric (surface to 600 hPa) ozone over India poses serious risks to both human health and crops, and potentially affects global ozone distribution through frequent deep convection in tropical regions. Our current understanding of the processes controlling seasonal and long-term variations in lower tropospheric ozone over this region is rather limited due to spatially and temporally sparse observations. Here we present an integrated process analysis of the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends of lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations for years 2006-2014 interpreted with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation for 1990-2010. OMI observed lower tropospheric ozone over India averaged for 2006-2010, showing the highest concentrations (54.1 ppbv) in the pre-summer monsoon season (May) and the lowest concentrations (40.5 ppbv) in the summer monsoon season (August). Process analyses in GEOS-Chem show that hot and dry meteorological conditions and active biomass burning together contribute to 5.8 Tg more ozone being produced in the lower troposphere in India in May than January. The onset of the summer monsoon brings ozone-unfavorable meteorological conditions and strong upward transport, which all lead to large decreases in the lower tropospheric ozone burden. Interannually, we find that both OMI and GEOS-Chem indicate strong positive correlations (r = 0.55-0.58) between ozone and surface temperature in pre-summer monsoon seasons, with larger correlations found in high NOx emission regions reflecting NOx-limited production conditions. Summer monsoon seasonal mean ozone levels are strongly controlled by monsoon strengths. Lower ozone concentrations are found in stronger monsoon seasons mainly due to less ozone net chemical production. Furthermore, model simulations over 1990-2010 estimate a mean annual trend of 0

  12. Interactions between trophic levels in upwelling and non-upwelling regions during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Malik, A; Fernandes, C.E.G.; Gonsalves, M.J.B.D.; Subina, N.S.; Mamatha, S.S.; Krishna, K.S.; Varik, S.; RituKumari; Gauns, M.; Cejoice, R.P.; Pandey, S.S.; Jineesh, V.K.; Kamaleson, A; Vijayan, V.; Mukherjee, I.; Subramanyan, S.; Nair, S.; Ingole, B.S.; LokaBharathi, P.A

    Coastal upwelling is a regular phenomenon occurring along the southwest coast of India during summer monsoon (May–September). We hypothesize that there could be a shift in environmental parameters along with changes in the network of interactions...

  13. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

    2018-02-01

    In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

  14. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ice cover over selected oceanic regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The variations in oceanic ice cover at selected polar regions during 1973 to 1987 have been analysed in relation to the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The ice cover over the Arctic regions in June has negative relationship (correlation...

  15. New spatial and temporal indices of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, Sanjeev; Uma, R.; Lakshmi Kumar, T. V.; Narayanan, M. S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Kripalani, R. H.

    2018-02-01

    The overall yearly seasonal performance of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall (ISMR) for the whole Indian land mass is presently expressed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) by a single number, the total quantum of rainfall. Any particular year is declared as excess/deficit or normal monsoon rainfall year on the basis of this single number. It is well known that monsoon rainfall also has high interannual variability in spatial and temporal scales. To account for these aspects in ISMR, we propose two new spatial and temporal indices. These indices have been calculated using the 115 years of IMD daily 0.25° × 0.25° gridded rainfall data. Both indices seem to go in tandem with the in vogue seasonal quantum index. The anomaly analysis indicates that the indices during excess monsoon years behave randomly, while for deficit monsoon years the phase of all the three indices is the same. Evaluation of these indices is also studied with respect to the existing dynamical indices based on large-scale circulation. It is found that the new temporal indices have better link with circulation indices as compared to the new spatial indices. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) especially over the equatorial Pacific Ocean still have the largest influence in both the new indices. However, temporal indices have much better remote influence as compared to that of spatial indices. Linkages over the Indian Ocean regions are very different in both the spatial and temporal indices. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis indicates that the complete spectrum of oscillation of the QI is shared in the lower oscillation band by the spatial index and in the higher oscillation band by the temporal index. These new indices may give some extra dimension to study Indian summer monsoon variability.

  16. Trace metal dynamics in zooplankton from the Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rejomon, G.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Nair, M.; Muraleedharan, K.R.

    Trace metal (Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb) concentrations in zooplankton from the mixed layer were investigated at 8 coastal and 20 offshore stations in the western Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon of 2003. The ecotoxicological importance...

  17. Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Dao-Yi; Yang, Jing; Hu, Miao [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Kim, Seong-Joong [Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Gao, Yongqi [Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Guo, Dong [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Zhou, Tianjun [State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), IAP/CAS, Beijing (China)

    2011-12-15

    In the present study the links between spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated with focus on the importance of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). To reduce the statistical uncertainty, we analyzed high-pass filtered data with the inter-annual time scales, and excluded the El Nino/Southern Oscillation signals in the climate fields using a linear fitting method. The significant relationship between spring AO and EASM are supported by the changes of multi-monsoon components, including monsoon indices, precipitation, and three-dimensional atmospheric circulations. Following a stronger positive spring AO, an anomalous cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa appears in southeastern Asia and the western North Pacific in summer, with the easterly anomalies spanning from the Pacific to Asian continent along 25 N-30 N and the westerly anomalies south of 15 N. At the same time, the summer western North Pacific subtropical high becomes weaker. Consistently, the positive precipitation anomalies are developed over a broad region south of 30 N stretching from southern China to the western Pacific and the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the lower valley of the Yangtze River and southern Japan. The anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific persisting from spring to summer plays a key role in modulating EASM and monsoon precipitation by a positive air-sea feedback mechanism. During spring the AO-associated atmospheric circulation change produces warmer SSTs between 150 E-180 near the equator. The anomalous sensible and latent heating, in turn, intensifies the cyclone through a Gill-type response of the atmosphere. Through this positive feedback, the tropical atmosphere and SST patterns sustain their strength from spring to summer, that consequently modifies the monsoon trough and the western North Pacific subtropical high and eventually the EASM precipitation. Moreover, the SST response to

  18. Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

    2018-04-01

    Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

  19. The Eurasian ice sheet reinforces the East Asian summer monsoon during the interglacial 500 000 years ago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuzhen Yin

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Deep-sea and ice-core records show that interglacial periods were overall less "warm" before about 420 000 years ago than after, with relatively higher ice volume and lower greenhouse gases concentration. This is particularly the case for the interglacial Marine Isotope Stage 13 which occurred about 500 000 years ago. However, by contrast, the loess and other proxy records from China suggest an exceptionally active East Asian summer monsoon during this interglacial. A three-dimension Earth system Model of Intermediate complexity was used to understand this seeming paradox. The astronomical forcing and the remnant ice sheets present in Eurasia and North America were taken into account in a series of sensitivity experiments. Expectedly, the seasonal contrast is larger and the East Asian summer monsoon is reinforced compared to Pre-Industrial time when Northern Hemisphere summer is at perihelion. Surprisingly, the presence of the Eurasian ice sheet was found to reinforce monsoon, too, through a south-eastwards perturbation planetary wave. The trajectory of this wave is influenced by the Tibetan plateau.

  20. Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Pengfei; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Liu, Shang; Telg, Hagen; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Portmann, Robert W.; Bai, Zhixuan; Ray, Eric A.; Duan, Yunjun; Pan, Laura L.; Toon, Owen B.; Bian, Jianchun; Gao, Ru-Shan

    2017-07-01

    An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (˜15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (˜35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

  1. High sensitivity of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust absorptive properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Qinjian; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wei, Jiangfeng

    2016-07-28

    The absorptive properties of dust aerosols largely determine the magnitude of their radiative impacts on the climate system. Currently, climate models use globally constant values of dust imaginary refractive index (IRI), a parameter describing the dust absorption efficiency of solar radiation, although it is highly variable. Here we show with model experiments that the dust-induced Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall differences (with dust minus without dust) change from -9% to 23% of long-term climatology as the dust IRI is changed from zero to the highest values used in the current literature. A comparison of the model results with surface observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis data sets indicates that the dust IRI values used in most current climate models are too low, tending to significantly underestimate dust radiative impacts on the ISM system. This study highlights the necessity for developing a parameterization of dust IRI for climate studies.

  2. Large-scale connection between aerosol optical depth and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Woo; Yoon, Soon-Chang; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

    2010-05-01

    We investigated the large-scale connection between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the large-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anti-cyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115E and 30-35N and by 120-140E and 35-40N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

  3. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y; Murthy, T.V.R.

    of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian ocean Y. Sadhuram and T. V. Ramana Murthy National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, 176, Lawson's Bay Colony, . Visakhapatnam-530017 ABSTRACT Severalprediction tedmiques have... and droughts associated with strong and weak monsoons greatly influence the economy of the country. Most of the droughts and floods are associated with EI-Nino and La- Nina respectively (Webster andYang3 and krishna Kumar et al\\. The relationship between ENSO...

  4. Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from 3D-Var and hybrid GSI-based system during Indian summer monsoon 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sanjeev Kumar; Prasad, V. S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a systematic investigation of medium-range rainfall forecasts from two versions of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)-Global Forecast System based on three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) and hybrid analysis system namely, NGFS and HNGFS, respectively, during Indian summer monsoon (June-September) 2015. The NGFS uses gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var data assimilation system, whereas HNGFS uses hybrid 3D ensemble-variational scheme. The analysis includes the evaluation of rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall using statistical score such as mean precipitation, bias, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and forecast improvement factor. In addition to these, categorical scores like Peirce skill score and bias score are also computed to describe particular aspects of forecasts performance. The comparison results of mean precipitation reveal that both the versions of model produced similar large-scale feature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for day-1 through day-5 forecasts. The inclusion of fully flow-dependent background error covariance significantly improved the wet biases in HNGFS over the Indian Ocean. The forecast improvement factor and Peirce skill score in the HNGFS have also found better than NGFS for day-1 through day-5 forecasts.

  5. Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

    2013-04-01

    Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

  6. Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

    KAUST Repository

    Konda, Gopinadh; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G; Gnanaseelan, C; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Rama Krishna, S S V S

    2018-01-01

    In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.

  7. Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konda, Gopinadh; Chowdary, J. S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Rama Krishna, S. S. V. S.

    2018-06-01

    In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.

  8. Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

    KAUST Repository

    Konda, Gopinadh

    2018-05-22

    In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.

  9. Past 100 Ky surface salinity-gradient response in the eastern Arabian Sea to the summer monsoon variation recorded by delta super(18)O of G. sacculifer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chodankar, A.R.; Banakar, V.K.; Oba, T.

    tongue may therefore provide a potential tool for understanding the past variation in the intensity of Indian summer monsoons. In response to past fluctuations in the summer- and winter-monsoon intensity, the salinities in both the basins have oscillated... glacial cycle. Mar. Geol. Bassinot, F.C., Labeyrie, L.D., Vincent, E., Quidelleur, X., Shackleton, N.J., Lancelot, Y., 1994. The astronomical theory the Bay of Bengal, suggesting weakest summer monsoons. On the other hand, the lowest contrast indicating...

  10. Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ruowen; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Tianyu; He, Shengping

    2017-09-01

    Recent study revealed a close connection between the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) and boreal summer precipitation over Central China (SPCC). This study further revealed a strengthening of the ASM-SPCC relationship around the late 1990s. It is found that the relationship between the ASM and the SPCC during 1979-1997 (1998-2014) relationship is statistically insignificant (significant). Further analysis indicated that during 1998-2014, the weakened ASM is concurrent with significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which could persist into the following boreal summer and further lead to intensified East Asian summer monsoon, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and anomalous ascending motion over Central China. Consequently, more moisture is transported from the western Pacific northward to Central China where significant anomalous convergence appears. Therefore, the ASM could potentially influence the SPCC during 1998-2014. By contrast, the ASM-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in boreal winter are statistically insignificant during 1979-1997. Such an interdecadal change might be attributed to the interdecadal warming that occurred in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea around the late 1990s. This study might be useful for the prediction of the SPCC.

  11. Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yujie; Feng, Junqiao; Hu, Dunxin

    2016-05-01

    Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and upper ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon (SWASM) (2.5°-20°N, 35°-70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon (SEASM) (2.5°-20°N, 70°-110°E). Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift, the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean. The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow. The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO. After the 1976/77 shift, there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM. However, before that shift, their relationship was weak.

  12. Evaluation of CFSV2 Forecast Skill for Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, S. A.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Prediction of sub seasonal monsoon characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is highly crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management. The Climate forecast System version 2 (CFS V2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by NCEP, is currently being employed for the seasonal and extended range forecasts of ISM. Even though CFSV2 is a fully coupled ocean- atmosphere- land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialisation, its ISM forecasts, in terms of seasonal mean and variability needs improvement. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSV2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - monsoon interactions. Most of these works are based on either rain fall strength or rainfall based indices. Here we evaluate the skill of CFS v2 model in forecasting the various sub seasonal features of ISM, viz., the onset and withdrawal days of monsoon that are determined using circulation based indices, the Monsoon Intra Seasonal Oscillations (MISO), and Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The MISO index, we use here, is based on zonal wind at 850 hPa and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies. With this work, we aim at assessing the skill of the model in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and their variabilities within the monsoon season. Variabilities in these large scale circulation patterns are primarily responsible for the variabilities in the seasonal monsoon strength and its temporal distribution across the season. We find that the model can better forecast the large scale circulation and than the actual precipitation. Hence we suggest that seasonal rainfall forecasts can be improved by the statistical downscaling of CFSV2 forecasts by incorporating the established relationships between the well forecasted large scale variables and monsoon precipitation.

  13. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  14. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Patra

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  15. The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zheng

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ten Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs participated in the third phase of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3 are assessed for the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM in both the pre-Industrial (PI, 0 ka and mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka simulations. Results show that the PMIP3 model median captures well the large-scale characteristics of the EASM, including the two distinct features of the Meiyu rainbelt and the stepwise meridional displacement of the monsoonal rainbelt. At mid-Holocene, the PMIP3 model median shows significant warming (cooling during boreal summer (winter over Eurasia continent that are dominated by the changes of insolation. However, the PMIP3 models fail to simulate a warmer annual mean and winter surface air temperature (TAS over eastern China as derived from proxy records. The EASM at MH are featured by the changes of large-scale circulation over Eastern China while the changes of precipitation are not significant over its sub-domains of the Southern China and the lower reaches of Yangzi River. The inter-model differences for the monsoon precipitation can be associated with different configurations of the changes in large-scale circulation and the water vapour content, of which the former determines the sign of precipitation changes. The large model spread for the TAS over Tibetan Plateau has a positive relationship with the precipitation in the lower reaches of Yangzi River, yet this relationship does not apply to those PMIP3 models in which the monsoonal precipitation is more sensitive to the changes of large-scale circulation. Except that the PMIP3 model median captured the warming of annual mean TAS over Tibetan Plateau, no significant improvements can be concluded when compared with the PMIP2 models results.

  16. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  17. Influence of the Southern Hemisphere Circulations on the Active-Break Cycle of the Indian Summer Monsoon

    OpenAIRE

    Tetsuzo, Yasunari

    1981-01-01

    During the northerm summer monsoon period, the cloudiness fluctuation over and around India shows a predominant periodicity of 30 to 40 days as a major active-break cycle of monsoon activity, and this fluctuation appears as a northward phase shift of maximum (or minimum) cloudiness from the equatorial Indian Ocean toward the Himalayas (T. YASUNARI : J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn, 57,227,1979; ibid., 58,225,1980). It has also been revealed that the northward movement of the cloudiness with this period...

  18. On the statistical aspects of sunspot number time series and its association with the summer-monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    The present paper reports studies on the association between the mean annual sunspot numbers and the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The cross correlations have been studied. After Box-Cox transformation, the time spectral analysis has been executed and it has been found that both of the time series have an important spectrum at the fifth harmonic. An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed on the data series averaged continuously by five years and the neural network could establish a predictor-predict and relationship between the sunspot numbers and the mean yearly summer monsoon rainfall over India.

  19. Multifaceted intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, K. J.; Oh, H.

    2017-12-01

    Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We attempt to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM using physical-empirical model. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor which is causative of north-south thermal contrast. Since the Changma&Meiyu mode is strongly related to the WNP subtropical high, a major precursor is the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the

  20. Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the Subtropical Ridge

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, C.-P.; Zhang, Yongsheng; Li, Tim

    2000-01-01

    The interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTs is studied using rainfall data in the Yangtze River Valley and the NCEP reanalysis for 1951–96. The datasets are also partitioned into two periods, 1951–77 and 1978–96, to study the interdecadal variations of this relationship. A wet summer monsoon is preceded by a warm equatorial eastern Pacific in the previous winter and followed by a cold equatorial eastern Pacific in the following fa...

  1. Equatorially/globally conditioned meteorological analysis of heaviest monsoon rains over India during 23-28 July 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranade, Ashwini; Singh, Nityanand

    2018-06-01

    The heaviest monsoon rainstorm of the period 1951-2007 over India occurred during 23-28 July 2005, mostly the peninsula received rainfall, and each day the rainwater over the country was 40.0 bcm (billion cubic meter) or more, highest 98.4 bcm fell on 25 July 2005. Present premise of monsoon genesis is that it evolves in association with spreading and intensification of equatorial atmospheric condition over Afro-Eurasian landmass and adjoining Indian and Pacific Oceans during boreal summer. Robust natural criteria have been applied to demarcate monsoon and other global weather regimes (GWRs) at standard levels (1000‒100 hPa). Global atmospheric (1000‒100 hPa) thermal condition and monsoon and general circulations during 23-28 July 2005 have been compared with normal features of respective parameters. Over tropics-subtropics (45°S-45°N), troposphere (1000‒250 hPa) was warmer-thicker and pressure lower than normal and mixed conditions of positive/negative departures in temperature, height/thickness and pressure over northern and southern mid-high latitudes. Noticeable changes in 3D monsoon structure were: horizontally spread and eastward-southward shifted over western North Pacific and stretched further southeastward across equatorial Pacific; intense warm-low lower tropospheric confluence-convergence across Asia-Pacific with vertical depth extending beyond 400 hPa; and intense warm-high upper tropospheric anticyclonic circulation zonally stretched and divided into three interconnected cells. Outflows from anticyclonic cells over Tibetan plateau and western North Pacific were mostly directed westward/southwestward/southward. Troposphere was warmer-thicker and pressure higher over eastern part of both subpolars-polars and cooler-thinner and pressure lower over western part. During the period, a deep cyclonic circulation moved from Bay of Bengal through central India while near-stationary atmospheric condition prevailed across the globe.

  2. Upper-tropospheric CO and O3 budget during the Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barret

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available During the Asian summer monsoon, the circulation in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS is dominated by the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA. Pollutants convectively uplifted to the upper troposphere are trapped within this anticyclonic circulation that extends from the Pacific Ocean to the Eastern Mediterranean basin. Among the uplifted pollutants are ozone (O3 and its precursors, such as carbon monoxide (CO and nitrogen oxides (NOx. Many studies based on global modeling and satellite data have documented the source regions and transport pathways of primary pollutants (CO, HCN into the AMA. Here, we aim to quantify the O3 budget by taking into consideration anthropogenic and natural sources. We first use CO and O3 data from the MetOp-A/IASI sensor to document their tropospheric distributions over Asia, taking advantage of the useful information they provide on the vertical dimension. These satellite data are used together with MOZAIC tropospheric profiles recorded in India to validate the distributions simulated by the global GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Over the Asian region, UTLS monthly CO and O3 distributions from IASI and GEOS-Chem display the same large-scale features. UTLS CO columns from GEOS-Chem are in agreement with IASI, with a low bias of 11 ± 9 % and a correlation coefficient of 0.70. For O3, the model underestimates IASI UTLS columns over Asia by 14 ± 26 % but the correlation between both is high (0.94. GEOS-Chem is further used to quantify the CO and O3 budget through sensitivity simulations. For CO, these simulations confirm that South Asian anthropogenic emissions have a more important impact on enhanced concentrations within the AMA (∼  25 ppbv than East Asian emissions (∼  10 ppbv. The correlation between enhanced emissions over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and monsoon deep convection is responsible for this larger impact. Consistently, South Asian anthropogenic NOx emissions also

  3. Variations of trace gases over the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girach, I. A.; Ojha, Narendra; Nair, Prabha R.; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Kumar, K. Ravi

    2018-02-01

    In situ measurements of near-surface ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4) were carried out over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) as a part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) campaign during the summer monsoon season of 2009. O3, CO and CH4 mixing ratios varied in the ranges of 8-54 ppbv, 50-200 ppbv and 1.57-2.15 ppmv, respectively during 16 July-17 August 2009. The spatial distribution of mean tropospheric O3 from satellite retrievals is found to be similar to that in surface O3 observations, with higher levels over coastal and northern BoB as compared to central BoB. The comparison of in situ measurements with the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate (MACC) global reanalysis shows that MACC simulations reproduce the observations with small mean biases of 1.6 ppbv, -2.6 ppbv and 0.07 ppmv for O3, CO and CH4, respectively. The analysis of diurnal variation of O3 based on observations and the simulations from Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a stationary point over the BoB did not show a net photochemical build up during daytime. Satellite retrievals show limitations in capturing CH4 variations as measured by in situ sample analysis highlighting the need of more shipborne in situ measurements of trace gases over this region during monsoon.

  4. Possible connection between the East Asian summer monsoon and a swing of the haze-fog-prone area in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qian; Cao, Ziqi; Sheng, Lifang; Diao, Yina; Wang, Wencai; Zhou, Yang; Qiu, Jingyi

    2018-05-01

    The summer monsoon has recently been hypothesized to influence haze-fog events over China, but the detailed processes involved have yet to be determined. In the present study, we found that the haze-fog-prone area swings over eastern China during boreal summer (May to September), coinciding with the movement of the subtropical monsoon convergence belt (hereinafter referred to simply as the "convergence belt"). Further investigation showed that the convergence belt modulates the spatial distribution of the haze-fog-prone area by altering the regional atmospheric conditions. When the warm and wet summer monsoon air mass pushes northwards and meets with cold air, a frontal zone (namely, the convergence belt) forms. The ascent of warm and wet air along the front strengthens the atmospheric stability ahead of the frontal zone, while the descent of cold and dry air weakens the vertical diffusion at the same place. These processes result in an asymmetric distribution of haze-fog along the convergence belt. Based on the criterion of absolute stability and downdraft, these atmospheric conditions favorable for haze-fog are able to identify 57-79% of haze-fog-prone stations, and the anticipation accuracy is 61-71%. After considering the influence of air pollutants on haze-fog occurrence, the anticipation accuracy rises to 78-79%. Our study reveals a connection between local haze-fog weather phenomena and regional atmospheric conditions and large-scale circulation, and demonstrates one possible mechanism for how the summer monsoon influences the distribution of haze-fog in eastern China.

  5. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-04-11

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

  6. Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

    2011-10-01

    The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

  7. Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohl, Benjamin [Meteo-France/CNRS, CNRM/GAME, Toulouse (France); CNRS/Universite de Bourgogne, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Dijon (France); Douville, Herve [Meteo-France/CNRS, CNRM/GAME, Toulouse (France)

    2011-10-15

    The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10 S-32 N 30 W-50 E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper. (orig.)

  8. Detecting human impacts on the flora, fauna, and summer monsoon of Pleistocene Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. H. Miller

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The moisture balance across northern and central Australia is dominated by changes in the strength of the Australian Summer Monsoon. Lake-level records that record changes in monsoon strength on orbital timescales are most consistent with a Northern Hemisphere insolation control on monsoon strength, a result consistent with recent modeling studies. A weak Holocene monsoon relative to monsoon strength 65–60 ka, despite stronger forcing, suggests a changed monsoon regime after 60 ka. Shortly after 60 ka humans colonized Australia and all of Australia's largest mammals became extinct. Between 60 and 40 ka Australian climate was similar to present and not changing rapidly. Consequently, attention has turned toward plausible human mechanisms for the extinction, with proponents for over-hunting, ecosystem change, and introduced disease. To differentiate between these options we utilize isotopic tracers of diet preserved in eggshells of two large, flightless birds to track the status of ecosystems before and after human colonization. More than 800 dated eggshells of the Australian emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae, an opportunistic, dominantly herbivorous feeder, provide a 140-kyr dietary reconstruction that reveals unprecedented reduction in the bird's food resources about 50 ka, coeval in three distant regions. These data suggest a tree/shrub savannah with occasionally rich grasslands was converted abruptly to the modern desert scrub. The diet of the heavier, extinct Genyornis newtoni, derived from >550 dated eggshells, was more restricted than in co-existing Dromaius, implying a more specialized feeding strategy. We suggest that generalist feeders, such as Dromaius, were able to adapt to a changed vegetation regime, whereas more specialized feeders, such as Genyornis, became extinct. We speculate that ecosystem collapse across arid and semi-arid zones was a consequence of systematic burning by early humans

  9. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  10. Changes in the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the late 1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanyan; Wang, Bin; Li, Xiaofan; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    The Year-to-year variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is primarily controlled by atmosphere-ocean interaction (AOI) between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool dipole SST anomalies (AOI mode) and the anomalous SST forcing from the equatorial central Pacific (the CP forcing mode). In this study, we show that the impacts of the WPSH variability on Asian summer monsoon rainfall have changed after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s (the PRE epoch), the WPSH primarily affects East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and had little influence on Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas after the late 1990s (the POST epoch), the WPSH has strengthened its linkage to the ISM while weakened its relationship with the EASM. This epochal change is associated with a change in the leading circulation mode in the Asia-WP region. During the PRE (POST) epoch the WPSH variation is mainly controlled by the AOI (CP forcing) that mainly affects EASM (ISM). The epochal change of the leading mode may be attributed to the change of the ENSO properties in late 1990s: the CP types of El Nino become a leading ENSO mode in the POST epoch. This work provides a new perspective for understanding decadal changes of the ENSO-monsoon relationship through subtropical dynamics.

  11. A vigorous Mesoamerican monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum driven by orbital and oceanic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Bernal, J. P.; Polyak, V.; Vazquez-Selem, L. V.

    2012-12-01

    The external forcings on global monsoon strength include summer orbital insolation and ocean circulation changes, both of which are key control knobs on Earth's climate. However, few records of the North American Monsoon (NAM) are available to test its sensitivity to variations in the precession-dominated insolation signal and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ± 3 cal ka BP) and deglacial periods. In particular, well-dated and high-resolution records from the southern sector of the NAM, referred to informally as the Mesoamerican monsoon to distinguish it from the more northerly 'core' NAM, are needed to better elucidate paleoclimate change in North America. Here, we present a 22 ka (ka = kilo years) rainfall history from absolutely-dated speleothems from tropical southwestern Mexico that documents a vigorous LGM summer monsoon, in contradiction to previous interpretations, and that the monsoon collapsed during the Heinrich stadial 1 and Younger Dryas cold events. We conclude that a strong Mesoamerican monsoon requires both a large ocean-to-land temperature contrast, driven as today by summer insolation, and a proximal latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, forced by active AMOC.

  12. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

  13. The Red Sea outflow regulated by the Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiki, Hidenori; Takahashi, Keiko; Yamagata, Toshio

    2006-08-01

    To investigate why the Red Sea water overflows less in summer and more in winter, we have developed a locally high-resolution global OGCM with transposed poles in the Arabian peninsula and India. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments with different sets of idealized atmospheric forcing, the present study shows that the summer cessation of the strait outflow is remotely induced by the monsoonal wind over the Indian Ocean, in particular that over the western Arabian Sea. During the southwest monsoon (May-September), thermocline in the Gulf of Aden shoals as a result of coastal Ekman upwelling induced by the predominantly northeastward wind in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Because this shoaling is maximum during the southwest summer monsoon, the Red Sea water is blocked at the Bab el Mandeb Strait by upwelling of the intermediate water of the Gulf of Aden in late summer. The simulation also shows the three-dimensional evolution of the Red Sea water tongue at the mid-depths in the Gulf of Aden. While the tongue meanders, the discharged Red Sea outflow water (RSOW) (incoming Indian Ocean intermediate water (IOIW)) is always characterized by anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity, as suggested from the potential vorticity difference.

  14. The Influence of Air-Sea Fluxes on Atmospheric Aerosols During the Summer Monsoon Over the Tropical Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavarsky, Alex; Booge, Dennis; Fiehn, Alina; Krüger, Kirstin; Atlas, Elliot; Marandino, Christa

    2018-01-01

    During the summer monsoon, the western tropical Indian Ocean is predicted to be a hot spot for dimethylsulfide emissions, the major marine sulfur source to the atmosphere, and an important aerosol precursor. Other aerosol relevant fluxes, such as isoprene and sea spray, should also be enhanced, due to the steady strong winds during the monsoon. Marine air masses dominate the area during the summer monsoon, excluding the influence of continentally derived pollutants. During the SO234-2/235 cruise in the western tropical Indian Ocean from July to August 2014, directly measured eddy covariance DMS fluxes confirm that the area is a large source of sulfur to the atmosphere (cruise average 9.1 μmol m-2 d-1). The directly measured fluxes, as well as computed isoprene and sea spray fluxes, were combined with FLEXPART backward and forward trajectories to track the emissions in space and time. The fluxes show a significant positive correlation with aerosol data from the Terra and Suomi-NPP satellites, indicating a local influence of marine emissions on atmospheric aerosol numbers.

  15. Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

    2018-04-01

    This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

  16. Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

    2017-12-01

    Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

  17. A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

    2018-05-01

    The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

  18. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

    2016-01-01

    Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do. PMID:27063141

  19. Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ji, Zhenming [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Lanzhou (China); Zhang, Dongfeng [Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan (China); Zhu, Chunzi [Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing (China); Wu, Jia; Xu, Ying [National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

    2011-05-15

    A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1-0.5 C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between -25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1-2 pentads, and delaying by 1-2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes. (orig.)

  20. Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700-1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, Kumiko; Saito, Kazuyuki; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2009-06-16

    Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative examination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.

  1. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Pacific Oceans, on subseasonal scales of a few days and on an interannual scale. ... over the Indian monsoon zone2 (Figure 3) during the summer monsoon .... each 500 km ×500 km grid over the equatorial Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and ...

  2. Change in the tropical cyclone activity around Korea by the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Jeoung-Yun

    2017-12-01

    Correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Korea and the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) was analyzed over the last 37 years. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between the two variables in non-ENSO years, after the 8 years with the highest EASMI (high EASMI years) and the 8 years with the lowest EASMI (low EASMI years) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In high EASMI years, in the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. In addition, a monsoon trough strengthened more eastward, and TCs in high EASMI years occurred more in east ward over the western North Pacific.

  3. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  4. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  5. Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

    2017-11-01

    The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

  6. Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

  7. A high-resolved record of the Asian Summer Monsoon from Dongge Cave, China for the past 1200 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Kan; Wang, Yongjin; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Liu, Dianbing; Kong, Xinggong

    2015-08-01

    Two annually-laminated and 230Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Dongge Cave, China, provided a high-resolution Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) history for the past 1200 years. A close similarity between annual band thickness and stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ18O) suggests the calcite δ18O is most likely a proxy associated with ASM precipitation. The two duplicated stalagmite δ18O records show that the ASM varies at a periodicity of ∼220 years, concordant with a dominant cycle of solar activity. A period of strong ASM activity occurred during the Spörer Minimum (1450-1550 A.D.), followed by a striking drop circa 1580 A.D., potentially consistent with the social unrest in the final decades of China's Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 A.D.). Centennial-scale changes in ASM precipitation over the last millennium match well with changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and South American summer monsoon precipitation. Our findings suggest that variations in low-latitude monsoon precipitation are probably driven by shifts in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is further mediated by solar activity and tropical SSTs.

  8. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2018-06-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  9. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  10. Wet scavenging of organic and elemental carbon during summer monsoon and winter monsoon seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonwani, S.; Kulshrestha, U. C.

    2017-12-01

    In the era of rapid industrialization and urbanization, atmospheric abundance of carbonaceous aerosols is increasing due to more and more fossil fuel consumption. Increasing levels of carbonaceous content have significant adverse effects on air quality, human health and climate. The present study was carried out at Delhi covering summer monsoon (July -Sept) and winter monsoon (Dec-Jan) seasons as wind and other meteorological factors affect chemical composition of precipitation in different manner. During the study, the rainwater and PM10 aerosols were collected in order to understand the scavenging process of elemental and organic carbon. The Rain water samples were collected on event basis. PM10 samples were collected before rain (PR), during rain (DR) and after rain (AR) during 2016-2017. The collected samples were analysed by the thermal-optical reflectance method using IMPROVE-A protocol. In PM10, the levels of organic carbon (OC) and its fractions (OC1, OC2, OC3 and OC4) were found significantly lower in the AR samples as compared to PR and DR samples. A significant positive correlation was noticed between scavenging ratios of organic carbon and rain intensity indicating an efficient wet removal of OC. In contrast to OCs, the levels of elemental carbon and its fractions (EC1, EC2, and EC3) in AR were not distinct during PR and DR. The elemental carbon showed very week correlation with rain intensity in Delhi region which could be explained on the basis of hydrophobic nature of freshly emitted carbon soot. The detailed results will be discussed during the conference.

  11. Changes in the Indian summer monsoon intensity in Sri Lanka during the last 30 ky - A multiproxy record from a marine sediment core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranasinghage, P. N.; Nanayakkara, N. U.; Kodithuwakku, S.; Siriwardana, S.; Luo, C.; Fenghua, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Indian monsoon plays a vital role in determining climate events happening in the Asian region. There is no sufficient work in Sri Lanka to fully understand how the summer monsoonal variability affected Sri Lanka during the quaternary. Sri Lanka is situated at an ideal location with a unique geography to isolate Indian summer monsoon record from iris counterpart, Indian winter monsoon. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate its variability and understand the forcing factors. For this purpose a 1.82 m long gravity core, extracted from western continental shelf off Colombo, Sri Lanka by Shiyan 1 research vessel, was used. Particle size, chemical composition and colour reflectance were measured using laser particle size analyzer at 2 cm resolution, X-Ray Fluorescence spectrometer (XRF) at 2 cm resolution, and color spectrophotometer at 1 cm resolution respectively. Radio carbon dating of foraminifera tests by gas bench technique yielded the sediment age. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) of XRF and color reflectance (DSR) data was performed to identify groups of correlating elements and mineralogical composition of sediments. Particle size results indicate that Increasing temperature and strengthening monsoonal rainfall after around 18000 yrs BP, at the end of last glacial period, enhanced chemical weathering over physical weathering. Proxies for terrestrial influx (XRF PC1, DSR PC1) and upwelling and nutrient supply driven marine productivity (XRF PC3 and DSR PC2) indicate that strengthening of summer monsoon started around 15000 yrs BP and maximized around 8000-10000 yrs BP after a short period of weakening during Younger Dryas (around 11000 yrs BP). The 8.2 cold event was recorded as a period of low terrestrial influx indicating weakening of rainfall. After that terrestrial input was low till around 2000 yrs BP indicating decrease in rainfall. However, marine productivity remained increasing throughout the Holocene indicating an increase in

  12. Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

  13. Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A.G. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Slingo, J.M. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible

  14. The Global Monsoon as Seen through the Divergent Atmospheric Circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Stepaniak, David P.; Caron, Julie M.

    2000-11-01

    A comprehensive description is given of the global monsoon as seen through the large-scale overturning in the atmosphere that changes with the seasons, and it provides a basis for delimiting the monsoon regions of the world. The analysis focuses on the mean annual cycle of the divergent winds and associated vertical motions, as given by the monthly mean fields for 1979-93 reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which are able to reproduce the dominant modes. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the divergent circulation brings out two dominant modes with essentially the same vertical structures in all months of the year. The first mode, which depicts the global monsoon, has a simple vertical structure with a maximum in vertical motion at about 400 mb, divergence in the upper troposphere that is strongest at 150 mb and decays to zero amplitude above 70 mb, and convergence in the lower troposphere with a maximum at 925 mb (ECMWF) or 850 mb (NCEP). However, this mode has a rich three-dimensional spatial structure that evolves with the seasons. It accounts for 60% of the annual cycle variance of the divergent mass circulation and dominates the Hadley circulation as well as three overturning transverse cells. These include the Pacific Walker circulation; an Americas-Atlantic Walker circulation, both of which comprise rising motion in the west and sinking in the east; and a transverse cell over Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Indian Ocean that has rising motion in the east and sinking toward the west. These exist year-round but migrate and evolve considerably with the seasons and have about a third to half of the mass flux of the peak Hadley cell. The annual cycle of the two Hadley cells reveals peak strength in early February and early August in both reanalyses.A second monsoon mode, which accounts for

  15. Delivery of halogenated very short-lived substances from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fiehn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3 and dibromomethane (CH2Br2, in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000–2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m−2 h−1, very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m−2 h−1, and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m−2 h−1. The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime, convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2. The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the

  16. Spatial variations of DMS, DMSP and phytoplankton in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon 2001

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoy, D.M.; Paul, J.T.; Gauns, M.; Ramaiah, N.; DileepKumar, M.

    in the radiation balance of the earth. During the summer monsoon of 2001 measurements were made for DMS and DMSPt (total DMSP) together with related biological parameters in the Bay of Bengal. Both DMS and DMSPt were restricted to the upper 40 m of the water column...

  17. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  18. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  19. Evaluation of NCMRWF unified model vertical cloud structure with CloudSat over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Mamgain, Ashu; Jisesh, A. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Rakhi, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Representation of rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation in the high resolution versions of NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM-REG) for the short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall event is vastly dependent on the key factors such as vertical cloud distribution, convection and convection/cloud relationship in the model. Hence it is highly relevant to evaluate the vertical structure of cloud and precipitation of the model over the monsoon environment. In this regard, we utilized the synergy of the capabilities of CloudSat data for long observational period, by conditioning it for the synoptic situation of the model simulation period. Simulations were run at 4-km grid length with the convective parameterization effectively switched off and on. Since the sample of CloudSat overpasses through the monsoon domain is small, the aforementioned methodology may qualitatively evaluate the vertical cloud structure for the model simulation period. It is envisaged that the present study will open up the possibility of further improvement in the high resolution version of NCUM in the tropics for the Indian summer monsoon associated rainfall events.

  20. Glacial to Holocene swings of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, Mahyar; Oppo, Delia W.; Steinke, Stephan; Stuut, Jan-Berend W.; de Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Hebbeln, Dierk; Lückge, Andreas

    2011-08-01

    The Australian-Indonesian monsoon is an important component of the climate system in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. However, its past variability, relation with northern and southern high-latitude climate and connection to the other Asian monsoon systems are poorly understood. Here we present high-resolution records of monsoon-controlled austral winter upwelling during the past 22,000 years, based on planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and faunal composition in a sedimentary archive collected offshore southern Java. We show that glacial-interglacial variations in the Australian-Indonesian winter monsoon were in phase with the Indian summer monsoon system, consistent with their modern linkage through cross-equatorial surface winds. Likewise, millennial-scale variability of upwelling shares similar sign and timing with upwelling variability in the Arabian Sea. On the basis of element composition and grain-size distribution as precipitation-sensitive proxies in the same archive, we infer that (austral) summer monsoon rainfall was highest during the Bølling-Allerød period and the past 2,500 years. Our results indicate drier conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 due to a southward shift of summer rainfall and a relatively weak Hadley cell south of the Equator. We suggest that the Australian-Indonesian summer and winter monsoon variability were closely linked to summer insolation and abrupt climate changes in the northern hemisphere.

  1. Surface circulation off Somalia and western equatorial Indian Ocean during summer monsoon of 1988 from Geosat altimeter data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Subrahmanyam, B.; RameshBabu, V.; Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, L.V.G.

    . The region of lower sea levels off the central Somalia Coast (between 6 degrees N and 9 degrees N) coincides with the cold water wedge formed by the offshore movement of the cold upwelled waters from the Somalia Coast during the summer monsoon. By September...

  2. A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

    2013-10-01

    Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

  3. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2018-06-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  4. Precipitation stable isotope records from the northern Hengduan Mountains in China capture signals of the winter India-Burma Trough and the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wusheng; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Xu, Baiqing; Wei, Feili; Ma, Yaoming; Zhu, Haifeng; Luo, Lun; Qu, Dongmei

    2017-11-01

    This project reports results of the first precipitation stable isotope (δ18 O and δD) time series produced for Qamdo in the northern Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The data showed that the fluctuations of precipitation stable isotopes at Qamdo during the different seasons revealed various moisture sources. The westerlies and local recycling moisture dominated at the study area before the pre-monsoon and after the post-monsoon seasons, which resulted in similar trends of both precipitation stable isotopes and temperature. The marine moisture was transported to the northern Hengduan Mountains by the winter India-Burma Trough combined with convection. Consequently, stable isotopes in subsequent precipitation were occasionally observed to decrease suddenly. However, δ18 O and δD values of precipitation at Qamdo were lower during the monsoon period and the duration of those low values was longer because of the effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the strengthening convection. Our findings indicate that the effects of seasonal precipitation differences caused by various climate systems, including the winter India-Burma Trough and Indian Summer Monsoon, need to be considered when attempting to interpret tree-ring and ice core records for the Hengduan Mountains.

  5. Evolution of Indian Ocean biases in the summer monsoon season hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Turner, A. G.; Woolnough, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we investigate the development of biases in the Indian Ocean region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with a variety of observations to test the rate of evolving mean-state biases in the Arabian Sea, over India, and over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Biases are all shown to develop rapidly, particularly for the circulation bias over India that is connected to convection. These circulation biases later reach the surface and lead to responses in Arabian Sea SST in accordance with coastal and Ekman upwelling processes. We also assess the evolution of radiation and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Meanwhile at the equator, easterly biases in surface winds are shown to develop rapidly, consistent with an SST pattern that is consistent with positive-Indian Ocean dipole mean state conditions (warm western equatorial Indian Ocean, cold east). This bias develops consistent with coupled ocean-atmosphere exchanges and Bjerknes feedback. We hypothesize that lower tropospheric easterly wind biases developing in the equatorial region originate from the surface, and also that signals of the cold bias in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean propagate to the Bay of Bengal via coastal Kelvin waves. Earlier work has shown the utility of wind-stress corrections in the Indian Ocean for correcting the easterly winds bias there and ultimately improving the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We identify and test this wind-stress correction technique in case study years from the hindcast period to see their impact on seasonal

  6. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, G.P.

    2003-05-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons followed by excess (deficient) rainfall over India using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanylised data for the period 1948-1995. The composite difference of temperature, wind, stream function and velocity potential during the years of high and low snow years at upper and lower levels have been studied in detail. The temperature at lower level shows maximum cooling up to 6 deg. C during DJF and this cooling persists up to 500hPa by 2 deg. C which gives rise to anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Caspian Sea and this may be one of the causes of the weakening of the summer monsoon circulation over Indian sub-continent. The stream function difference fields show westerly dominated over Arabian Sea at upper level in weak monsoon years. Velocity potential difference field shows complete phase reversal in the dipole structure from the deficient to excess Indian summer monsoon rainfall. (author)

  7. Orbital forcing of the late Pleistocene boreal summer monsoon: Links to North Atlantic cold events and El Nino; Southern Oscillation. Geologica Ultraiectina (313)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziegler, M.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis revolves about the timing of precession-related variations in the boreal summer monsoon and the impact of North Atlantic cold events and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on this timing. Transient climate modelling experiments indicate that the intensity of the Northern Hemisphere summer

  8. Influence of Indian summer monsoon variability on the surface waves in the coastal regions of eastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Jesbin, G.

    –885, 2016 www.ann-geophys.net/34/871/2016/ doi:10.5194/angeo-34-871-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Influence of Indian summer monsoon variability on the surface waves in the coastal regions of eastern Arabian Sea V. Sanil Kumar and Jesbin... of the period. The annual average value is ∼ 1.5 m (Anoop et al., 2015). During the non-monsoon period, the land and sea breeze has a signif- icant influence on the wave climate of eastern AS (Glejin Ann. Geophys., 34, 871–885, 2016 www.ann-geophys.net/34...

  9. Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shengrui; Xiao, Jule; Xu, Qinghai; Wen, Ruilin; Fan, Jiawei; Huang, Yun; Yamagata, Hideki

    2018-06-01

    The response of vegetation to extreme cold events during the last deglaciation is important for assessing the impact of possible extreme climatic events on terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios. Here, we present a detailed record of the development of regional vegetation in the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation (16,500-11,000 cal yr BP) based on a radiocarbon-dated high-resolution pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeast China. The results show that the regional vegetation changed from subalpine meadow-desert steppe to mixed coniferous and deciduous forest-typical steppe during the last deglaciation. However, its responses to the Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas event (YD) were significantly different: during the H1 event, scattered sparse forest was present in the surrounding mountains, while within the lake catchment the vegetation cover was poor and was dominated by desert steppe. In contrast, during the YD event, deciduous forest developed and the proportion of coniferous forest increased in the mountains, the lake catchment was occupied by typical steppe. We suggest that changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and land surface conditions (ice sheets and sea level) caused temperature and monsoonal precipitation variations that contributed to the contrasting vegetation response during the two cold events. We conclude that under future global warming scenarios, extreme climatic events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment of the Hulun Lake region, resulting in increased coniferous forest and decreased total forest cover in the surrounding mountains, and a reduction in typical steppe in the lake catchment.

  10. Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

    2016-06-22

    Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection.

  11. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: II. Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Yimin; Wu, Guoxiong; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Hong, Jieli; Zhou, Linjiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-09-15

    Data analysis based on station observations reveals that many meteorological variables averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are closely correlated, and their trends during the past decades are well correlated with the rainfall trend of the Asian summer monsoon. However, such correlation does not necessarily imply causality. Further diagnosis confirms the existence of a weakening trend in TP thermal forcing, characterized by weakened surface sensible heat flux in spring and summer during the past decades. This weakening trend is associated with decreasing summer precipitation over northern South Asia and North China and increasing precipitation over northwestern China, South China, and Korea. An atmospheric general circulation model, the HadAM3, is employed to elucidate the causality between the weakening TP forcing and the change in the Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Results demonstrate that a weakening in surface sensible heating over the TP results in reduced summer precipitation in the plateau region and a reduction in the associated latent heat release in summer. These changes in turn result in the weakening of the near-surface cyclonic circulation surrounding the plateau and the subtropical anticyclone over the subtropical western North Pacific, similar to the results obtained from the idealized TP experiment in Part I of this study. The southerly that normally dominates East Asia, ranging from the South China Sea to North China, weakens, resulting in a weaker equilibrated Sverdrup balance between positive vorticity generation and latent heat release. Consequently, the convergence of water vapor transport is confined to South China, forming a unique anomaly pattern in monsoon rainfall, the so-called ''south wet and north dry.'' Because the weakening trend in TP thermal forcing is associated with global warming, the present results provide an effective means for assessing projections of regional climate over Asia in the context of global

  12. Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2018-06-01

    Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

  13. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-10-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  14. Analysis of the nonlinearity of Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability using spherical PDFs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajcay, Nikola; Hannachi, Abdel

    2013-04-01

    The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is a high-dimensional and highly complex phenomenon affecting more than one fifth of the world population. The intraseasonal component of the ASM undergoes periods of active and break phases associated respectively with enhanced and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and surroundings. In this paper the nonlinear nature of the intraseasonal monsoon variability is investigated using the leading EOFs of ERA-40 sea level pressure reanalyses field over the ASM region. The probability density function is then computed in spherical coordinates using a Epaneshnikov kernel method. Three significant modes are identified. They represent respectively (i) East - West mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea and below normal pressure over Himalayas, (ii) mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea (without compensating centre of opposite sign as in (i)) and (iii) mode with below normal sea level pressure over East China sea (same as (ii) but with opposite sign). Relationship to large scale flow are also investigated and discussed.

  15. Role of North Indian Ocean Air-Sea Interaction in Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L.; Han, W.; Li, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Air-sea coupling processes over the North Indian Ocean associated with Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) are analyzed. Observations show that MISO convection anomalies affect underlying sea surface temperature (SST) through changes in surface shortwave radiation (via cloud cover change) and surface latent heat flux (associated with surface wind speed change). In turn, SST anomalies determine the changing rate of MISO precipitation (dP/dt): warm (cold) SST anomalies cause increasing (decreasing) precipitation rate through increasing (decreasing) surface convergence. Air-sea interaction gives rise to a quadrature relationship between MISO precipitation and SST anomalies. A local air-sea coupling model (LACM) is established based on these observed physical processes, which is a damped oscillatory system with no external forcing. The period of LACM is proportional to the square root of mean state mixed layer depth , assuming other physical parameters remain unchanged. Hence, LACM predicts a relatively short (long) MISO period over the North Indian Ocean during the May-June monsoon developing (July-August mature) phase when is shallow (deep). This result is consistent with observed MISO statistics. An oscillatory external forcing of a typical 30-day period is added to LACM, representing intraseasonal oscillations originated from the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate into the North Indian Ocean. The period of LACM is then determined by both the inherent period associated with local air-sea coupling and the period of external forcing. It is found that resonance occurs when , amplifying the MISO in situ. This result explains the larger MISO amplitude during the monsoon developing phase compared to the mature phase, which is associated with seasonal cycle of . LACM, however, fails to predict the observed small MISO amplitude during the September-October monsoon decaying phase, when is also shallow. This deficiency might be associated with the

  16. Diagnosis of the Asian summer monsoon variability and the climate prediction of monsoon precipitation via physical decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    This study investigates the space-time evolution of the dominant modes that constitute the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), and, as an ultimate goal, the climate prediction of the ASM rainfall. Precipitation and other synoptic variables during the prominent life cycle of the ASM (May 21 to September 17) are used to show the detailed features of dominant modes, which are identified as the seasonal cycle, the ISO defined by the 40--50 day intraseasonal oscillation including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the El Nino mode. The present study reveals that the ISO is the second largest component of the ASM rainfall variation. Correlation analysis indicates that ISO explains a larger fraction of the variance of the observed precipitation (without climatology) than the ENSO mode. The dominant ISO signal faithfully explains the northward propagation of the ISO toward the Asian continent causing intraseasonal active/break periods. The interannual variation of the ISO strength suggests that the ENSO exerts some influence on the ISO. The composite convective ISO anomaly and Kelvin-Rossby wave response over the Indian Ocean shows that the ISO tends to be stronger during the early stage of the ASM than normal in El Nino (La Nina) years, indicating greater (smaller) possibility of ISO-related extreme rainfall over India, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal. The ENSO mode reveals that the following factors affect the evolution of the ASM system in El Nino (La Nina) years. (1) The anomalous sea surface temperature and sea level pressure over the Indian Ocean during the early stage of the ASM weaken (enhance) the meridional pressure gradient. (2) As a result, the westerly jet and the ensuing moisture transport toward India and the Bay of Bengal become weak (strong) and delayed (expedited), providing a less (more) favorable condition for regional monsoon onsets. (3) The Walker circulation anomaly results in an enhanced subsidence (ascent) and drought (flood) over the Maritime continent

  17. The monsoon system: Land-sea breeze or the ITCZ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadgil, Sulochana

    2018-02-01

    For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford's (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

  18. Effect of the Summer Monsoon on Aerosols at Two Measurement Stations in Northern India – Part 1: PM and BC Concentrations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Raatikainen, T.; Brus, David; Komppula, M.; Panwar, T.S.; Hooda, R.K.; Sharma, V.P.; Lihavainen, H.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 16 (2011), s. 8271-8282 ISSN 1680-7316 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : aerosols * concentrations * summer monsoon Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 5.520, year: 2011

  19. Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Deng, Jiechun

    2018-04-01

    Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30-40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 °C, but a

  20. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-04-01

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  1. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2017-07-04

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  2. Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

  3. Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

    2018-04-01

    The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

  4. Enhanced Global Monsoon in Present Warm Period Due to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate global monsoon precipitation (GMP changes between the Present Warm Period (PWP, 1900–2000 and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250–1850 by performing millennium sensitivity simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1. Three millennium simulations are carried out under time-varying solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas (GHG forcing, respectively, from 501 to 2000 AD. Compared to the global-mean surface temperature of the cold LIA, the global warming in the PWP caused by high GHG concentration is about 0.42 °C, by strong solar radiation is 0.14 °C, and by decreased volcanic activity is 0.07 °C. The GMP increases in these three types of global warming are comparable, being 0.12, 0.058, and 0.055 mm day−1, respectively. For one degree of global warming, the GMP increase induced by strong GHG forcing is 2.2% °C−1, by strong solar radiation is 2.8% °C−1, and by decreased volcanic forcing is 5.5% °C−1, which means that volcanic forcing is most effective in terms of changing the GMP among these three external forcing factors. Under volcanic inactivity-related global warming, both monsoon moisture and circulation are enhanced, and the enhanced circulation mainly occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH. The circulation, however, is weakened in the other two cases, and the GMP intensification is mainly caused by increased moisture. Due to large NH volcanic aerosol concentration in the LIA, the inter-hemispheric thermal contrast of PWP global warming tends to enhance NH monsoon circulation. Compared to the GHG forcing, solar radiation tends to warm low-latitude regions and cause a greater monsoon moisture increase, resulting in a stronger GMP increase. The finding in this study is important for predicting the GMP in future anthropogenic global warming when a change in natural solar or volcanic activity occurs.

  5. Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziguang; Lin, Xiaopei; Cai, Wenju

    2017-07-10

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.

  6. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna

    2017-09-28

    Recent satellite observations show efficient vertical transport of Asian pollutants from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone by deep monsoon convection. In this paper, we examine the transport of carbonaceous aerosols, including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), into the monsoon anticyclone using of ECHAM6-HAM, a global aerosol climate model. Further, we investigate impacts of enhanced (doubled) carbonaceous aerosol emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), underneath monsoon circulation and precipitation from sensitivity simulations. The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  7. A dipole pattern in the Indian and Pacific oceans and its relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Jiayu; Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping

    2014-01-01

    This study demonstrates a robust relationship between the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using observational datasets and sensitivity tests from the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The IPOD, which is a significant pattern of boreal summer SSTA in the Indian and Pacific oceans characterized by positive (negative) sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and negative (positive) SSTA in the IPWP, appears around May, intensifies in the following months, and weakens in September. In summers with a positive IPOD phase, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) weakens and shrinks with the axis of the WPSH ridge moving northwards, which favours an intensified EASM and a decrease in summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, and vice versa. (letter)

  8. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-04-13

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  9. A simple method to forecast the frequency of depressions and cyclones over Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.; Suneeta, P.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a simple multiple regression model to forecast the total number of depressions and cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon (June-September) season using the data for the period, 1995-2016. Four potential predictors (zonal wind speed at 850 hPa in May and April SST in the North Australia-Indonesia region, 05°S-15°S; 120°E-160°E; March NINO 3.4 SST and geopotential height at 200 hPa in the region, 0°N-10°N; 80°E-100°E) have been identified to forecast TNDC. A remarkably high multiple correlation coefficient of 0.92 has been observed with the TNDC which explains 85% variability. The methodology has been tested for the recent 5 years (2012-2016) and found a good agreement between the observed and forecast values of TNDC except in 2015 in which the observed and predicted TNDC were 2 and 0, respectively. It is interesting to see high and significant correlations between the above predictors and the genesis potential parameter (GPP) during summer monsoon season. This GPP depends on the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, mid troposphere relative humidity, thermal instability between 850 and 500 hPa, and vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa. It is inferred that the above predictors are influencing the environmental conditions over Bay of Bengal which, in turn, influencing the genesis of cyclones during summer monsoon season. The impact of ENSO (El-Nino-Southern Oscillation) and La-Nina in TNDC is examined and found that the vertical wind shear and relative vorticity are high and the GPP was almost double in ENSO compared with that in La-Nina which favoured high (low) TNDC under ENSO (La-Nina).

  10. Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

  11. Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the possibility of southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) as a modulator for the early phase of Indian summer monsoon and its possible physical mechanism. A dipole-like structure is obtained from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis which is similar to an Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) found earlier. A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is defined based on the SST anomaly over the positive and negative poles. The regression map of rainfall over India in the month of June corresponding to the SDI during 1983-2013 shows negative patterns along the Western Ghats and Central India. However, the regression pattern is insignificant during 1952-1982. The multiple linear regression models and partial correlation analysis also indicate that the SDI acts as a dominant factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of June during 1983-2013. The similar result is also obtained with the help of composite rainfall over the land points of India in the month of June for positive (negative) SDI events. It is also observed that the positive (negative) SDI delays (early) the onset dates of Indian monsoon over Kerala during the time domain of our study. The study is further extended to identify the physical mechanism of this impact, and it is found that the heating (cooling) in the region covering SDI changes the circulation pattern in the SIO and hence impacts the progression of monsoon in India.

  12. 8000-year monsoonal record from Himalaya revealing reinforcement of tropical and global climate systems since mid-Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Pradeep; Agnihotri, Rajesh; Sharma, Deepti; Meena, Narendra; Sundriyal, Y P; Saxena, Anju; Bhushan, Ravi; Sawlani, R; Banerji, Upasana S; Sharma, C; Bisht, P; Rana, N; Jayangondaperumal, R

    2017-11-06

    We provide the first continuous Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) climate record for the higher Himalayas (Kedarnath, India) by analyzing a 14 C-dated peat sequence covering the last ~8000 years, with ~50 years temporal resolution. The ISM variability inferred using various proxies reveal striking similarity with the Greenland ice core (GISP2) temperature record and rapid denitrification changes recorded in the sediments off Peru. The Kedarnath record provides compelling evidence for a reorganization of the global climate system taking place at ~5.5 ka BP possibly after sea level stabilization and the advent of inter-annual climate variability governed by the modern ENSO phenomenon. The ISM record also captures warm-wet and cold-dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, respectively.

  13. Time-slice analysis of the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, A. G.; Lynch, A. H.

    2006-10-01

    We use the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) to investigate the variation in the Australian summer monsoon over the last 55 000 years. A synthesis of palaeoenvironmental observations is used to constrain the model for six time slices: 55, 35, 21, 11, 6 and 0 ka. Both inter-hemispheric forcing and the seasonal timing of local insolation changes play key, and interacting, roles on the evolution and intensity of the monsoon.During the onset to the monsoon, a heat low develops to the west of Australia over the Indian Ocean in all time slices, but with varying strengths. Divergent outflow from Asia converges with the cyclonic flow to bring increased rainfall to northern Australia and the maritime continent. The relative importance of a low pressure pull and the high pressure push varies according to the strength of the pressure anomalies. Only in the middle Holocene is the low pressure pull the dominant forcing mechanism. At 21 ka, the climate shift to colder mean temperatures determines the large-scale dynamics of the monsoon.The general picture that emerges from these results is consistent with available palaeodata but highlights the importance of a broad regional perspective to ascribe the driving mechanisms at different times. Copyright

  14. Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-05-01

    The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

  15. Asian monsoon variability, cyclicities, and forcing mechanisms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    in monsoonal intensity from 5 to 2Ma. Uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau occurred coeval with the increase in strength of the Asian Monsoon between 9.5 and 5Ma. Variability of monsoon on glacial and interglacial time scale Multi proxy based... in the Western Ghats of India 131 Fig. 3. Multi proxy monsoon reconstructions show that summer monsoon strength was stronger during interglacials (shaded intervals) as compared to glacials 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 100 200 300 400 0 50...

  16. Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

  17. Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Webster, Peter J.; Rajeevan, Madhavan N.; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989–2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical–empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP–ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical–empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989–2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921–2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP–ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability. PMID:25981180

  18. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  19. Impact of ice sheet induced North Atlantic oscillation on East Asian summer monsoon during an interglacial 500,000 years ago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundaram, S.; Yin, Q.Z.; Berger, A.; Muri, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-09-15

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13, an interglacial about 500,000 years ago, is unique due to an exceptionally strong East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) occurring in a relatively cool climate with low greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG). This paper attempts to find one of the possible mechanisms for this seeming paradox. Simulations with an Earth System model LOVECLIM show that the presence of ice sheets over North America and Eurasia during MIS-13 induces a positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) like feature. The ocean having a longer memory than the atmosphere, the oceanic anomalies associated with NAO persists until summer. The signals of summer NAO are transmitted to East Asia to reinforce the monsoon there through the stationary waves excited at the Asian Jet entrance. The geopotential height shows clearly a mid-latitude wave train with positive anomalies over the eastern Mediterranean/Caspian Sea and the Okhotsk Sea and a negative anomaly over Lake Baikal. This reinforces the effect of the high-latitude wave train induced independently by the Eurasian ice sheet topography as shown in previous study. These features reinforce the Meiyu front and enhance the precipitation over East Asia. The results obtained from LOVECLIM are further confirmed by an atmospheric general circulation model, ARPEGE. (orig.)

  20. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2018-04-01

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF-LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in

  1. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2018-04-17

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF–LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena

  2. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2018-01-01

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF–LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena

  3. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  4. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2016-01-01

    India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

  5. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  6. South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, V.

    2016-06-01

    The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

  7. Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

  8. Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Schemm, Jae Kyung E. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-03-15

    Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981-2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models' multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead-lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and

  9. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  10. Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annamalai, H.; Liu, P.

    2005-04-01

    Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976-77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950-75 (PRE76) and 1977-2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July-August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology.Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo-Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July-August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3-5 mm day-1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a

  11. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ˜54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river runoff proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Nath, B. Nagender; Nürnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2016-04-01

    The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses and to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (ΔT) and δ18Osw (Δδ18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our Δδ18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the δ18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ∼18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum δ18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation

  12. Impact of cloud radiative heating on East Asian summer monsoon circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Zhun; Zhou, Tianjun; Wang, Minghuai; Qian, Yun

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of cloud radiative heating on the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) over southeastern China (105°–125°E, 20°–35°N) are addressed by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the radiative heating of clouds leads to a positive effect on the local EASM circulation over southeastern China. Without the radiative heating of clouds, the EASM circulation and precipitation would be much weaker than that in normal conditions. The longwave heating of clouds dominates the changes of EASM circulation. The positive effect of clouds on EASM circulation is explained by the thermodynamic energy equation, i.e. the different heating rate between cloud base and cloud top enhances the convective instability over southeastern China, which consequently enhances updraft. The strong updraft would further result in a southward meridional wind above the center of the updraft through Sverdrup vorticity balance. (letter)

  13. Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30–40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ, which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference

  14. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gautam

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

  15. Variations of the Indian summer monsoon over the Mio-Pliocene recorded in the Bengal Fan (IODP Exp354): implications for the evolution of the terrestrial biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galy, Valier; Feakins, Sarah; Karkabi, Elias; Ponton, Camilo; Galy, Albert; France-Lanord, Christian

    2017-04-01

    A pressing challenge in climate research is understanding the temporal evolution of the Indian monsoon system; its response to global and regional climatic controls (including warming); as well as implications in terms of vegetation (C4 expansion), erosion of the Himalaya and carbon sequestration in the Bengal Fan. Studies on climate dynamics have recently offered new insights into the mechanistic controls on the monsoon: the tectonic boundary of the Himalaya is implicated as the major control on Indian summer monsoon dynamics today. Since this region has been uplifted since at least the late Oligocene, it is possible to test the response of monsoon precipitation to global and regional climate change, and also understand feedbacks on the climate system via carbon sequestration in the Bengal Fan. The evidence for monsoon intensity changes across the Miocene and Pliocene is currently incomplete given temporal uncertainty and diagenesis in terrestrial records; biases in the records reconstructed from the distal fan; and conflicting evidence from wind speed and aridity metrics for a stronger or weaker monsoon. Our alternative approach is therefore to study the basin-wide hydrological changes recorded in a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the marine sediments of the Bengal Fan recovered during IODP expedition 354. In turbiditic sediments of Himalayan origin, the late Miocene C4 expansion was found in all three long records recovered during expedition 354 (i.e. at sites U1451, U1450 and U1455, from East to West) based on stable carbon isotope composition of terrestrial leaf-wax compounds. Cores from sites U1455 (a reoccupation of DSDP Leg 22 Site 218) provide the highest resolution record of the C4 transition, which appears to occur abruptly within a relatively continuous series of turbiditic sequences. Bio- and magneto-stratigraphic dating of these records by members of Expedition 354 science party is underway and will provide the best stratigraphic constraint of the C4

  16. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    2015-12-01

    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  17. On the relationship between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before and after 1976/1977 climate shift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabeerali, C.T.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Ajayamohan, R.S. [University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Murtugudde, Raghu [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A clear shift in the withdrawal dates of the Indian Summer Monsoon is observed in the long term time series of rainfall data. Prior (posterior) to the 1976/1977 climate shift most of the withdrawal dates are associated with a late (an early) withdrawal. As a result, the length of the rainy season (LRS) over the Indian land mass has also undergone similar changes (i.e., longer (shorter) LRS prior (posterior) to the climate shift). In this study, probable reasons for this significant shift in withdrawal dates and the LRS are investigated using reanalysis/observed datasets and also with the help of an atmospheric general circulation model. Reanalysis/observational datasets indicate that prior to the climate shift the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea exerted a strong influence on both the withdrawal and the LRS. After the climate shift, the influence of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean SST has decreased and surprisingly, the influence of the Arabian Sea SST is almost non-existent. On the other hand, the influence of the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean has increased significantly. It is observed that the upper tropospheric temperature gradient over the dominant monsoon region has decreased and the relative influence of the Indian Ocean SST variability on the withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon has increased in the post climate shift period. Sensitivity experiments with the contrasting SST patterns on withdrawal dates and the LRS in the pre- and post- climate shift scenarios, confirm the observational evidences presented above. (orig.)

  18. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Liang, Xiaoyun [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Yu, Jingjing [China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing (China)

    2012-09-15

    Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120 E and between 20/30 N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

  19. Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qun Xu

    2001-01-01

    Following the great flooding of summer 1998, the mid-lower Yangtze Basin further suffered from another large flooding in summer 1999. Successive droughts through three recent summers (1997-1999) appeared in north China in addition, leading to an abnormal summer climate pattern of ''north drought with south flooding''. Such southward move of the summer monsoon rainy belt in east China started in the late 1970s-early 1980s. Its main cause may not be a purely natural climate change, but the acceleration of industrialization in east China could play a major role by emitting large volumes of SO 2 , especially from the rapidly growing rural factories of east China. The annual release of SO 2 in China exceeded 20Tg during 1992-1998, so dense sulfate aerosols covered the central east China which significantly reduced the sunlight. Although present estimates for the changes of clear sky global solar radiation may include some error, they show that the negative radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols in central east China by far exceeds the effect of greenhouse warming in summer. Hence the mid-summer monsoon rainy belt of east China has a trend moving southward in 21 recent years (1979-1999), showing the very sensitive characteristic of the summer monsoon system to the change in heat equilibrium of the land surface. The occurrence rate of summer climate pattern of ''north drought with south flooding'' in east China during 21 recent years is the largest since AD 950; such anomalous climate has brought large losses to China. The only possible way to reverse this southward trend of summer monsoon rainy belt is to significantly reduce air pollution by using more clean energy. Recently, the PRC has paid serious attention to this problem by adopting a series of countermeasures. (author)

  20. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-11-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  1. The effect of El-Niño on South Asian Monsoon and agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, A.

    2015-12-01

    Mukherjee A, Wang S.Y.Abstract:The South Asian Monsoon has a prominent and significant impact on South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and it is one of the most studied phenomena in the world. The monsoon is historically known to be influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of seasonal precipitation over India strongly depends upon the ENSO phasing. The average southwest monsoon rainfall received during the years with El Niño was found to be less compared to normal years and the average rainfall during the northeast monsoon is higher in coastal Andhra Pradesh. ENSO is anti-correlated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The last prominent effect of ENSO on India's monsoon occurred in 2009 with 23% reduction in annual rainfall, reducing summer sown crops such as rice, sugar cane etc. and pushing up food prices. Climatic resources endowment plays a major role in planning agricultural production in tropical and sub-tropical environment especially under rain-fed agriculture, and so contingent crop planning drawn on this relationship would help to mitigate the effects of ENSO episodes in the region. The unexplored area in this domain of research is the changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO due to global warming and its impact on ENSO prediction and agricultural management practices. We analyze the last 30 years datasets of Pacific SST, and precipitation and air temperature over Southeast Asia to examine the evolution of ENSO teleconnections with ISM, as well as making estimates of drought indices such as Palmer Drought Severity Index. This research can lead toward better crop management strategies in the South Asian monsoon region.

  2. Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

    2018-04-01

    This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

  3. Late Holocene vegetation and climate change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the Indian Summer Monsoon and links to the Indian Ocean Dipole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Wang, Yongbo; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Ni, Jian; Liao, Mengna; Xiao, Xiayun

    2017-12-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the most important climate systems, whose variability and driving mechanisms are of broad interest for academic and societal communities. Here, we present a well-dated high-resolution pollen analysis from a 4.82-m long sediment core taken from Basomtso, in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), which depicts the regional climate changes of the past millennium. Our results show that subalpine coniferous forest was dominant around Basomtso from ca. 867 to ca. 750 cal. yr BP, indicating a warm and semi-humid climate. The timberline in the study area significantly decreased from ca. 750 to ca. 100 cal. yr BP, and a cold climate, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed. Since ca. 100 cal. yr BP, the vegetation type changed to forest-meadow with rising temperatures and moisture. Ordination analysis reveals that the migration of vegetation was dominated by regional temperatures and then by moisture. Further comparisons between the Basomtso pollen record and the regional temperature reconstructions underscore the relevance of the Basomtso record from the southeastern TP for regional and global climatologies. Our pollen based moisture reconstruction demonstrates the strong multicentennial-scale link to ISM variability, providing solid evidence for the increase of monsoonal strengths over the past four centuries. Spectral analysis indicates the potential influence of solar forcing. However, a closer relationship has been observed between multicentennial ISM variations and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs), suggesting that the variations in monsoonal precipitation over the southeastern TP are probably driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole on the multicentennial scale.

  4. Coupling of Community Land Model with RegCM4 for Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurya, R. K. S.; Sinha, P.; Mohanty, M. R.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-11-01

    Three land surface schemes available in the regional climate model RegCM4 have been examined to understand the coupling between land and atmosphere for simulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The RegCM4 is coupled with biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model versions 3.5, and 4.5 (CLM3.5 and CLM4.5, respectively) and model performance is evaluated for recent drought (2009) and normal (2011) monsoon years. The CLM4.5 has a more distinct category of surface and it is capable of representing better the land surface characteristics. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis version 2 (NNRP2) datasets are considered as driving force to conduct the experiments for the Indian monsoon region (30°E-120°E; 30°S-50°N). The NNRP2 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation data are used for verification analysis. The results indicate that RegCM4 simulations with CLM4.5 (RegCM4-CLM4.5) and CLM3.5 (RegCM4-CLM3.5) surface temperature (at 2 ms) have very low warm biases ( 1 °C), while with BATS (RegCM4-BATS) has a cold bias of about 1-3 °C in peninsular India and some parts of central India. Warm bias in the RegCM4-BATS is observed over the Indo-Gangetic plain and northwest India and the bias is more for the deficit year as compared to the normal year. However, the warm (cold) bias is less in RegCM4-CLM4.5 than other schemes for both the deficit and normal years. The model-simulated maximum (minimum) surface temperature and sensible heat flux at the surface are positively (negatively) biased in all the schemes; however, the bias is higher in RegCM4-BATS and lower in RegCM4-CLM4.5 over India. All the land surface schemes overestimated the precipitation in peninsular India and underestimated in central parts of India for both the years; however, the biases are less in RegCM4-CLM4.5 and more in RegCM4-CLM3.5 and Reg

  5. Air-sea interaction and formation of the Asian summer monsoon onset vortex over the Bay of Bengal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Mao, Jiangyu [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Guan, Yue [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Yan, Jinghui [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

    2012-01-15

    In spring over the southern Bay of Bengal (BOB), a vortex commonly develops, followed by the Asian summer monsoon onset. An analysis of relevant data and a case study reveals that the BOB monsoon onset vortex is formed as a consequence of air-sea interaction over BOB, which is modulated by Tibetan Plateau forcing and the land-sea thermal contrast over the South Asian area during the spring season. Tibetan Plateau forcing in spring generates a prevailing cold northwesterly over India in the lower troposphere. Strong surface sensible heating is then released, forming a prominent surface cyclone with a strong southwesterly along the coastal ocean in northwestern BOB. This southwesterly induces a local offshore current and upwelling, resulting in cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The southwesterly, together with the near-equatorial westerly, also results in a surface anticyclone with descending air over most of BOB and a cyclone with ascending air over the southern part of BOB. In the eastern part of central BOB, where sky is clear, surface wind is weak, and ocean mixed layer is shallow, intense solar radiation and low energy loss due to weak surface latent and sensible heat fluxes act onto a thin ocean layer, resulting in the development of a unique BOB warm pool in spring. Near the surface, water vapor is transferred from northern BOB and other regions to southeastern BOB, where surface sensible heating is relatively high. The atmospheric available potential energy is generated and converted to kinetic energy, thereby resulting in vortex formation. The vortex then intensifies and moves northward, where SST is higher and surface sensible heating is stronger. Meanwhile, the zonal-mean kinetic energy is converted to eddy kinetic energy in the area east of the vortex, and the vortex turns eastward. Eventually, southwesterly sweeps over eastern BOB and merges with the subtropical westerly, leading to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

  6. The Monsoon Erosion Pump and the Indian Monsoon since Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giosan, L.

    2017-12-01

    Lack of consensus on the Neogene establishment and evolution of the Indian Monsoon is remarkable after half a century of research. Conflicting interpretations point toward the possibility of periodic decoupling between monsoon winds and monsoon precipitation. Here I introduce the concept of a monsoon erosion pump based on terrestrial and oceanic records reconstructed from recent NGHP and IODP drilling and spanning the last 34 million years in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian and Andaman Seas. From millennial to orbital to tectonic timescales, these records suggest that vegetation land cover interacts and modulates the regime of erosion and weathering under perennial but variable monsoonal rain conditions. Under this new proposed paradigm the Indian monsoon exhibits two distinct flavours during the Neogene that can be largely explained by its heartbeat, or astronomical forcing, mediated by the global glacial state and interacting with the paleogeography of South Asia.

  7. Circumglobal wave train and the summer monsoon over northwestern India and Pakistan: the explicit role of the surface heat low

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saeed, Sajjad [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, Hamburg (Germany); Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad (Pakistan); Mueller, Wolfgang A.; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    This study examines the influence of the mid-latitude circulation on the surface heat low (HL) and associated monsoon rainfall over northwestern India and Pakistan using the ERA40 data and high resolution (T106L31) climate model ECHAM5 simulation. Special emphasis is given to the surface HL which forms over Pakistan and adjoining areas of India, Iran and Afghanistan during the summer season. A heat low index (HLI) is defined to depict the surface HL. The HLI displays significant correlations with the upper level mid-latitude circulation over western central Asia and low level monsoon circulation over Arabian Sea and acts as a bridge connecting the mid-latitude wave train to the Indian summer monsoon. A time-lagged singular value decomposition analysis reveals that the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude circumglobal wave train (CGT) influences the surface pressure anomalies over the Indian domain. The largest low (negative) pressure anomalies over the western parts of the HL region (i.e., Iran and Afghanistan) occur in conjunction with the upper level anomalous high that develops over western-central Asia during the positive phase of the CGT. The composite analysis also reveals a significant increase in the low pressure anomalies over Iran and Afghanistan during the positive phase of CGT. The westward increasing low pressure anomalies with its north-south orientation provokes enormous north-south pressure gradient (lower pressure over land than over sea). This in turn enables the moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea to penetrate farther northward over northwestern India and Pakistan. A monsoon trough like conditions develops over northwestern India and Pakistan where the moist southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf converge. The convergence in association with the orographic uplifting expedites convection and associated precipitation over northwestern India and Pakistan. The high resolution climate model ECHAM5 simulation also

  8. Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

    2012-08-01

    SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

  9. ITCZ and ENSO pacing on East Asian winter monsoon variation during the Holocene: Sedimentological evidence from the Okinawa Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xufeng; Li, Anchun; Wan, Shiming; Kao, Shuhji; Kuhn, Gerhard

    2016-04-01

    Deep-sea fan sediments provide an excellent geological archive for paleoenvironment reconstruction. Grain size, clay mineral and elemental (Ti, Fe, Ca) compositions were measured for a core retrieved from a submarine fan in the Okinawa Trough. Varimax-rotated Principal Component Analysis (V-PCA) on time-evolution of grain size spectrum reveals that, since the Holocene, sediment was transported mainly by the benthic nepheloid layer (33%) and upper layers (33%) which is driven by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The intensification of the Kuroshio Current during the Holocene, masks the fluvial signal of the summer monsoon and obstructs clay minerals derived from the Yellow River, a major contributor prior to 12 ka BP. A new grain size index (GSI), which represents the EAWM well, exhibits a negative correlation with the δ18O record in Dongge Cave, China during the Holocene when sea level was relatively steady. This anticorrelation suggests the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The consistency among our records and rainfall records in Peru, Ti counts in the Cariaco Basin, monsoon records in Oman and the averaged summer insolation pattern at 30°N further support the ITCZ's impact on monsoon systems globally. Cross-Correlation Analyses for GSI and log(Ti/Ca) against δ18O record in Dongge Cave reveal a decoupling between the East Asian winter and summer monsoon during 5500-2500 cal yr BP, with greater complexity in the last 2500 years. This can be attributed to exacerbated ENSO mode fluctuations and possibly anthropogenic interference superimposed on insolation and ITCZ forcing.

  10. Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

    2015-08-01

    The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

  11. Relevance of Indian Summer Monsoon and its Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Drivers for the Kharif Crop Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amat, Hemadri Bhusan; Karumuri, Ashok

    2017-12-01

    While the Indian agriculture has earlier been dependent on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), a multifold increase in irrigation and storage facilities raise a question whether the ISMR is still as relevant. We revisit this question using the latest observational climate datasets as well as the crop production data and find that the ISMR is still relevant for the Kharif crop production (KCP). In addition, in the recent changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific driver evolutions and frequency, particularly more frequent occurrence of the ENSO Modokis in place of the canonical ENSOs, we carry out a correlation analysis to estimate the impact of the various Indo-Pacific climate drivers on the rainfall of individual Indian states for the period 1998-2013, for which crop production data for the most productive Indian states, namely West Bengal, Odisha, United Andhra Pradesh (UAP), Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are available. The results suggest that the KCP of the respective states are significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall at the 95-99% confidence levels. Importantly, we find that the NINO 3.4 and ENSO Modoki indices have a statistically significant correlation with the KCP of most of the Indian states, particularly in states such as UAP and Karnataka, through induction of anomalous local convergence/divergence, well beyond the equatorial Indian Ocean. The KCP of districts in UAP also has a significant response to all the climate drivers, having implication for prediction of local crop yield.

  12. The simulation of stratospheric water vapor in the NH summer monsoon regions in a suite of WACCM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Tilmes, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water vapor maxima are found in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) over Asian and North America monsoon regions during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer months. High concentrations of stratospheric water vapor are associated with the upper-level anticyclonic circulation and they play an important role in the radiative forcing for the climate system. However, discrepancies in the simulation of stratospheric water vapor are found among different models. In this study, we use both observational data: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations (MLS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and chemistry climate model outputs: different configurations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), including standard configuration of WACCM, WACCM L110, specified chemistry (SC) WACCM and specified dynamics (SD) WACCM. We find that WACCM L110 with finer vertical resolution better simulates the stratospheric water vapor maxima over the summer monsoon regions. To better understand the mechanism, we examine the simulated temperature at around 100 hPa since 100 hPa is known to act as a dehydration mechanism, i.e. the warmer the temperature, the wetter the stratospheric water vapor. We find that both WACCM L110 and SD-WACCM better simulate the temperature at 100 hPa as compared to that of MERRA2. This suggests that improving model vertical resolution and dynamical processes in the UTLS is crucial in simulating the stratospheric water vapor concentrations.

  13. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

  14. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative and above-normal onset (June positive phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over

  15. Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

    Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

  16. The Effects of Rainfall Pulses on Soil Nitrogen Availability in a Chihuahuan Desert Grassland During the Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.; White, C. S.; Sinsabaugh, R. L.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) is an essential but limiting nutrient in most terrestrial environments. While numerous studies have demonstrated a tight coupling between soil N availability and soil volumetric water content, this relationship is not well understood in desert ecosystems where rain events create pulses of biological activity, such as microbial secretion of extracellular enzymes that enable nutrient acquisition. Moreover, climate models are projecting shifts in the size and frequency of rain events across semi-arid ecosystems as a result of anthropogenic activities; therefore these changes are expected to have consequences for soil N availability in these regions. The goals of this study were to determine (1) if soil N availability pulses in response to monsoon rain events of differing size and frequency, and (2) how soil N availability varies over the course of a monsoon season in a semi-arid grassland. To answer these questions, we analyzed soils collected from a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland during the 2014 summer monsoon. Soils were collected monthly over a period of eight days in conjunction with experimentally manipulated irrigation treatments that varied in both size (small=5mm and large=20mm) and frequency (small=weekly (n=12) and large=monthly (n=3)). Using KCl extraction, soils were processed for their inorganic plant-available nitrogen content (NH4+-N and NO3--N). We found that while soil N availability increased over the monsoon season across all treatment types, large events appeared to saturate soils, creating anaerobic conditions that stimulated nitrogen loss most likely through the denitrification pathway. Soils were also assayed for nitrogen specific extracellular enzyme activities, specifically leucine aminopeptidase (LAP), which breaks down the bond in leucine amino acids to mobilize nitrogen, and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG), which breaks down amino sugars in microbial cell walls. Preliminary results suggest that by mid-monsoon, LAP activity

  17. A daytime climatological distribution of high opaque ice cloud classes over the Indian summer monsoon region observed from 25-year AVHRR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Devasthale

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A daytime climatological spatio-temporal distribution of high opaque ice cloud (HOIC classes over the Indian subcontinent (0–40° N, 60° E–100° E is presented using 25-year data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs for the summer monsoon months. The HOICs are important for regional radiative balance, precipitation and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. In this study, HOICs are sub-divided into three classes based on their cloud top brightness temperatures (BT. Class I represents very deep convection (BT<220 K. Class II represents deep convection (220 K<=BT<233 K and Class III background convection (233 K<=BT<253 K. Apart from presenting finest spatial resolution (0.1×0.1 degrees and long-term climatology of such cloud classes from AVHRRs to date, this study for the first time illustrates on (1 how these three cloud classes are climatologically distributed during monsoon months, and (2 how their distribution changes during active and break monsoon conditions. It is also investigated that how many deep convective clouds reach the tropopause layer during individual monsoon months. It is seen that Class I and Class II clouds dominate the Indian subcontinent during monsoon. The movement of monsoon over continent is very well reflected in these cloud classes. During monsoon breaks strong suppression of convective activity is observed over the Arabian Sea and the western coast of India. On the other hand, the presence of such convective activity is crucial for active monsoon conditions and all-India rainfall. It is found that a significant fraction of HOICs (3–5% reach the tropopause layer over the Bay of Bengal during June and over the north and northeast India during July and August. Many cases are observed when clouds penetrate the tropopause layer and reach the lower stratosphere. Such cases mostly occur during June compared to the other months.

  18. Influence of the May Southern annular mode on the South China Sea summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Jianping; Li, YanJie; Zhao, Sen; Zheng, Fei; Zheng, Jiayu; Yao, Zhixiong

    2017-07-01

    The possible impact of the May Southern Hemisphere (SH) annular mode (SAM) on the following South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is examined. A close inverse relationship between the two is revealed in the observations. The simultaneous South Pacific dipole (SPD), a dipole-like sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the South Pacific, acts as the "oceanic bridge" to preserve the May SAM signal and prolong it into June-September. Observational evidence and numerical simulations both demonstrate that the SPD communicates its large thermal inertia signal to the atmosphere, regulating the Southern Pacific Subtropical Jet (SPSJ) variability over eastern Australia. Corresponding to the adjustment of circulation associated with the SPSJ is a prominent tripolar cross-Pacific teleconnection pattern stretching from the SH middle-high latitudes into the NH East Asia coastal region, referred to as the South-North Pacific (SNP) teleconnection pattern. Wave ray tracing analysis manifests that the SNP acts as the "atmospheric bridge" to propagate the related wave energy across the equator and into the Maritime Continent and SCS monsoon region, modulating the vertical motion and middle-lower tropospheric flows, and favoring the out-of-phase variation of the SCSSM. Therefore, the "coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge" process and the related Rossby wave energy transmission are possible mechanisms for the significant influence of the May SAM on the variability of the following SCSSM. Therefore, the May SAM provides a fresh insight into the prediction of the SCSSM from the perspective of the SH high latitudes.

  19. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.

    2018-04-01

    We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

  20. Tropospheric biennial oscillation and South Asian summer monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    20

    suggested that the Indo-Pacific SST displays strong impact on TBO as compared to .... and model display clear biennial signals with above 95% confidence level .... Ascending motion and low level convergence over the monsoon core ..... Indian and western Pacific oceans during the northern winter as revealed by a self-.

  1. Detecting causal drivers and empirical prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Capua, G.; Vellore, R.; Raghavan, K.; Coumou, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is crucial for the economy, society and natural ecosystems on the Indian peninsula. Predict the total seasonal rainfall at several months lead time would help to plan effective water management strategies, improve flood or drought protection programs and prevent humanitarian crisis. However, the complexity and strong internal variability of the ISM circulation system make skillful seasonal forecasting challenging. Moreover, to adequately identify the low-frequency, and far-away processes which influence ISM behavior novel tools are needed. We applied a Response-Guided Causal Precursor Detection (RGCPD) scheme, which is a novel empirical prediction method which unites a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm (CEN). These tool allow us to assess causal pathways between different components of the ISM circulation system and with far-away regions in the tropics, mid-latitudes or Arctic. The scheme has successfully been used to identify causal precursors of the Stratospheric polar vortex enabling skillful predictions at (sub) seasonal timescales (Kretschmer et al. 2016, J.Clim., Kretschmer et al. 2017, GRL). We analyze observed ISM monthly rainfall over the monsoon trough region. Applying causal discovery techniques, we identify several causal precursor communities in the fields of 2m-temperature, sea level pressure and snow depth over Eurasia. Specifically, our results suggest that surface temperature conditions in both tropical and Arctic regions contribute to ISM variability. A linear regression prediction model based on the identified set of communities has good hindcasting skills with 4-5 months lead times. Further we separate El Nino, La Nina and ENSO-neutral years from each other and find that the causal precursors are different dependent on ENSO state. The ENSO-state dependent causal precursors give even higher skill, especially for La Nina years when the ISM is relatively strong. These

  2. Atmospheric water budget over the South Asian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.

    2018-04-01

    High resolution hybrid atmospheric water budget over the South Asian monsoon region is examined. The regional characteristics, variability, regional controlling factors and the interrelations of the atmospheric water budget components are investigated. The surface evapotranspiration was created using the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) with the satellite-observed rainfall and vegetation fraction. HRLDAS evapotranspiration shows significant similarity with in situ observations and MODIS satellite-observed evapotranspiration. Result highlights the fundamental importance of evapotranspiration over northwest and southeast India on atmospheric water balance. The investigation shows that the surface net radiation controls the annual evapotranspiration over those regions, where the surface evapotranspiration is lower than 550 mm. The rainfall and evapotranspiration show a linear relation over the low-rainfall regions (forcing (like surface net radiation). The lead and lag correlation of water budget components show that the water budget anomalies are interrelated in the monsoon season even up to 4 months lead. These results show the important regional interrelation of water budget anomalies on south Asian monsoon.

  3. Widespread Lake Highstands in the Southernmost Andean Altiplano during Heinrich Event 1: Implications for the South American Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. Y.; McGee, D.; Quade, J.

    2014-12-01

    Speleothem-based oxygen isotope records provide strong evidence of anti-phased behavior of the northern and southern hemisphere summer monsoons during Heinrich events, but we lack rigorous constraints on the amount of wetting or drying occurring in monsoon regions. Studies centered on shoreline deposits of closed-basin lakes are well suited for establishing such quantitative controls on water balance changes by providing unequivocal evidence of lake volume variations. Here we present new dating constraints on the highstands of several high-altitude (3800-4350 m) paleolakes in the southern Andean Altiplano, an outlying arid region of the Atacama Desert stretching across the Chilean-Bolivian-Argentinian border east of the Andes (20-25°S). These lakes once occupied the closed basins where only phreatic playas, dry salars, and shallow ponds exist today. Initial U-Th dating of massive shoreline tufas reveals that these deposits are dateable to within ±150 to 300 yrs due to high U concentrations and low initial Th content (as indicated by high 230Th/232Th). Our U-Th and 14C dates show that lake highstands predominantly occur between 18.5 and 14.5 kyrs BP, coinciding with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) and the expansion of other nearby lakes, such as Lake Titicaca. Because of their (1) location at the modern-day southwestern edge of the summer monsoon, (2) intact shoreline preservation, and (3) precise age control, these lakes may uniquely enable us to reconstruct the evolution of water balance (P-E) changes associated with HE1. Hydrologic modeling constrained by temperature estimates provided by local glacial records is used to provide bounds for past precipitation changes. We also examine North Atlantic cooling as the mechanism for these changes by comparing a compilation of S. American lake level records with various hosing experiments and transient climate simulations at HE1. Our results lend us confidence in expanding our U-Th work to other shoreline tufas in the

  4. Equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon to forcing of anthropogenic aerosol species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Wang, Qiuyan; Zhang, Hua

    2017-12-01

    We used an online aerosol-climate model to study the equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols from 1850 to 2000. Our results show that each of these aerosol species has a different effect on the EASM as a result of changes in the local sea-land thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation. The increased emission of sulfate aerosol leads to a decrease in the thermal contrast between the land and ocean, a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet, and significant northerly wind anomalies at 850 hPa over eastern China and the ambient oceans, markedly dampening the EASM. An increase in organic carbon aerosol results in pronounced surface cooling and the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over the oceans north of 30°N. These effects cause a slight increase in the sea-land thermal contrast and southerly flow anomalies to the west of the anticyclonic center, strengthening the northern EASM. An increase in organic carbon emission decreases the sea-land thermal contrast over southern China, which weakens the southern EASM. The response of the summer 850-hPa winds and rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region to an increase in black carbon emission is generally consistent with the response to an increase in organic carbon. The increase in black carbon emission leads to a strengthening of the northern EASM north of 35°N and a slight weakening of the southern EASM south of 35°N. The simulated response of the EASM to the increase in black carbon emission is unchanged when the emission of black carbon is scaled up by five times its year 2000 levels, although the intensities of the response is enhanced. The increase in sulfate emission primarily weakens the EASM, whereas the increases in black carbon and organic carbon emissions mitigate weakening of the northern EASM.

  5. Trapping, chemistry, and export of trace gases in the South Asian summer monsoon observed during CARIBIC flights in 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rauthe-Schöch

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container passenger aircraft observatory performed in situ measurements at 10–12 km altitude in the South Asian summer monsoon anticyclone between June and September 2008. These measurements enable us to investigate this atmospheric region (which so far has mostly been observed from satellites using the broad suite of trace gases and aerosol particles measured by CARIBIC. Elevated levels of a variety of atmospheric pollutants (e.g. carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen oxides, aerosol particles, and several volatile organic compounds were recorded. The measurements provide detailed information about the chemical composition of air in different parts of the monsoon anticyclone, particularly of ozone precursors. While covering a range of 3500 km inside the monsoon anticyclone, CARIBIC observations show remarkable consistency, i.e. with distinct latitudinal patterns of trace gases during the entire monsoon period. Using the CARIBIC trace gas and aerosol particle measurements in combination with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, we investigated the characteristics of monsoon outflow and the chemical evolution of air masses during transport. The trajectory calculations indicate that these air masses originated mainly from South Asia and mainland Southeast Asia. Estimated photochemical ages of the air were found to agree well with transport times from a source region east of 90–95° E. The photochemical ages of the air in the southern part of the monsoon anticyclone were systematically younger (less than 7 days and the air masses were mostly in an ozone-forming chemical mode. In its northern part the air masses were older (up to 13 days and had unclear ozone formation or destruction potential. Based on analysis of forward trajectories, several receptor regions were identified. In addition to predominantly westward

  6. Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

    2016-05-01

    The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

  7. Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we use a sophisticated high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, EC-Earth, to investigate the effect of Mid-Holocene orbital forcing on summer monsoons on both hemispheres. During the Mid-Holocene (6 ka, there was more summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere than today, which intensified the meridional temperature and pressure gradients. Over North Africa, monsoonal precipitation is intensified through increased landward monsoon winds and moisture advection as well as decreased moisture convergence over the oceans and more convergence over land compared to the pre-industrial simulation. Precipitation also extends further north as the ITCZ shifts northward in response to the stronger poleward gradient of insolation. This increase and poleward extent is stronger than in most previous ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. In north-westernmost Africa, precipitation extends up to 35° N. Over tropical Africa, internal feedbacks completely overcome the direct warming effect of increased insolation. We also find a weakened African Easterly Jet. Over Asia, monsoonal precipitation during the Mid-Holocene is increased as well, but the response is different than over North-Africa. There is more convection over land at the expense of convection over the ocean, but precipitation does not extend further northward, monsoon winds over the ocean are weaker and the surrounding ocean does not provide more moisture. On the Southern Hemisphere, summer insolation and the poleward insolation gradient were weaker during the Mid-Holocene, resulting in a reduced South American monsoon through decreased monsoon winds and less convection, as well as an equatorward shift in the ITCZ. This study corroborates the findings of paleodata research as well as previous model studies, while giving a more detailed account of Mid-Holocene monsoons.

  8. Regional environment and hydrology changes documented by lake sediments from Lake Dalianhai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau since the last glacial maximum and their relationship with Asian summer monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Zhou, A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2016-12-01

    Variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) significantly affects environment and hydrology conditions within its area of influence, as well as economic and social development. Thus it is important to investigate the variability of the ASM on various time-scales and to explore its underlying forcing mechanisms, in order to improve our ability to predict the long-term trends of regional and global climate. Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, a margin area of modern ASM, is sensitive to summer monsoon changes. Existing paleoclimate records from this region contain conflicting evidence for the timing of summer monsoon advance into this region: an early arrival pre-Younger Dryas or a late arrival at the beginning of the Holocene. In addition, it is also debated that whether the Holocene ASM maximum in this region occurred during the early Holocene or the middle Holocene. Here we present a high-resolution record of a 52-m drilling core from Lake Dalianhai in this region. Multiply geochemistry indexes were obtained from the sediment core. 22 AMS 14C data from plant remains and bulk organic matters illustrate that the upper 52 m core covered the whole period since the last glacial maximum (LGM). The results generally indicate that the Lake Dalianhai was occupied by very shallow water body with eolian sand surrounding the lake from 20 to 15 ka BP (1ka=1000 cal yr). With the beginning of the B/A warm period, the sedimentary sequence changed to grey lacustrine clay abruptly. The sedimentary environment was relatively stable under a high lake level state during the B/A period which was marked with fine mean grain size, and high exogenous detrital element content (such as Al, K, Ti and Rb), but with low organic matter content. This perhaps was caused by the increasing of ASM precipitation. Increased contents of element Ca, Sr, and Br, as well as TOC and TN, highlight the increase of ASM during the Holocene. However, reddish lacustrine clay with lower magnetic susceptibility and

  9. Monsoon variability in the Himalayas under the condition of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Keqin; Yao Tandong

    2003-01-01

    An ice core-drilling program was carried out at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28deg23'N, 85deg43'E, 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (δ 18 O), and major ions throughout the core. Cycles indicated by δ 18 O, cations were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend, separated from the time series, shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally, as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1degC, the accumulation decreases about 80 mm, reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming. (author)

  10. Air sea interaction during summer monsoon period of 1979

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    The present study highlights the utility of satellite derived parameters like SST, precipitation, CMV winds in the lower troposphere etc. in supplementing the in-situ observations. This information can lead to a better understanding of the monsoon...

  11. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during. June and ..... the recent trends and associated physical processes. 3. Results and ... depends on the activity of the monsoon trough. To.

  12. Deglaciation in the tropical Indian Ocean driven by interplay between the regional monsoon and global teleconnections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Lea, D.W.; Nigam, R.; Mackensen, A.; Naik, Dinesh K.

    High resolution climate records of the ice age terminations from monsoon-dominated regions reveal the interplay of regional and global driving forces. Speleothem records from Chinese caves indicate that glacial terminations were interrupted...

  13. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  14. Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

    2014-10-01

    This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from 1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record

  15. The Indian Summer Monsoon onset revisited: new approach based on the analysis of historical wind observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordoñez, Paulina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon onset is one of the meteorological events most anticipated in the world. Due to its relevance for the population, the India Meteorological Department has dated the onset over the southern tip of the Indian Peninsula (Kerala) since 1901. The traditional method to date the onset was based in the judgment of skilled meteorologist and because of this, the method was considered subjective and not adequate for the study of long-term changes in the onset. A new method for determining the monsoon onset based solely on objective criteria has been in use since 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies -among other variables- on OLR measurements. This requirement impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the satellite era. An alternative approach to establish the onset by objective methods is the use of the wind field. During the last decade, some works have demonstrated that the changes in the wind direction in some areas of the Indian Ocean can be used to determine the monsoon onset rather precisely. However, this method requires precise wind observations over a large oceanic area which has limited the periods covered for such kind of indices to those of the reanalysis products. In this work we present a new approach to track the Indian monsoon onset based solely on historical wind direction measurements taken onboard ships. Our new series provides an objective record of the onset since the last decade of the 19th century and perhaps more importantly, it can incorporate any new historical wind record not yet known in order to extend the series length. The new series captures quite precisely the rapid precipitation increase associated to the monsoon onset, correlates well with previous approaches and it is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. Although no significant trends in the onset date were detected, a tendency to later than average onsets during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onsets between

  16. Characterization of non-methane hydrocarbons in Asian summer monsoon outflow observed by the CARIBIC aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Baker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Between April and December 2008 the CARIBIC commercial aircraft conducted monthly measurement flights between Frankfurt, Germany and Chennai, India. These flights covered the period of the Asian summer monsoon (June–September, during which enhancements in a number of atmospheric species were observed in the upper troposphere over southwestern Asia. In addition to in situ measurements of trace gases and aerosols, whole air samples were collected during the flights, and these were subsequently analyzed for a suite of trace gases that included a number of C2–C8 non-methane hydrocarbons. Non-methane hydrocarbons are relatively short-lived compounds and the large enhancements in their mixing ratios in the upper troposphere over southwestern Asia during the monsoon, sometimes more than double their spring and fall means, provides qualitative evidence for the influence of convectively uplifted boundary layer air. The particularly large enhancements of the combustion tracers benzene and ethyne, along with the similarity of their ratios with carbon monoxide and emission ratios from the burning of household biofuels, indicate a strong influence of biofuel burning to NMHC emissions in this region. Conversely, the ratios of ethane and propane to carbon monoxide, along with the ratio between i-butane and n-butane, indicate a significant source of these compounds from the use of fossil fuels, and comparison to previous campaigns suggests that this source could be increasing. Photochemical aging patterns of NMHCs showed that the CARIBIC samples were collected in two distinctly different regions of the monsoon circulation: a southern region where air masses had been recently influenced by low level contact and a northern region, where air parcels had spent substantial time in transit in the upper troposphere before being probed. Estimates of age using ratios of individual NMHCs have ranges of 3–6 days in the south and 9–12 days in

  17. The 9.2 ka event in Asian summer monsoon area: the strongest millennial scale collapse of the monsoon during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenchao; Yan, Hong; Dodson, John; Cheng, Peng; Liu, Chengcheng; Li, Jianyong; Lu, Fengyan; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2018-04-01

    Numerous Holocene paleo-proxy records exhibit a series of centennial-millennial scale rapid climatic events. Unlike the widely acknowledged 8.2 ka climate anomaly, the likelihood of a significant climate excursion at around 9.2 cal ka BP, which has been notably recognized in some studies, remains to be fully clarified in terms of its magnitude and intensity, as well as its characteristics and spatial distributions in a range of paleoclimatic records. In this study, a peat sediment profile from the Dajiuhu Basin in central China was collected with several geochemical proxies and a pollen analysis carried out to help improve understanding of the climate changes around 9.2 cal ka BP. The results show that the peat development was interrupted abruptly at around 9.2 cal ka BP, when the chemical weathering strength decreased and the tree-pollen declined. This suggests that a strong drier regional climatic event occurred at around 9.2 cal ka BP in central China, which was, in turn, probably connected to the rapid 9.2 ka climate event co-developing worldwide. In addition, based on the synthesis of our peat records and the other Holocene hydrological records from Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, we further found that the 9.2 ka event probably constituted the strongest abrupt collapse of the Asian monsoon system during the full Holocene interval. The correlations between ASM and the atmospheric 14C production rate, the North Atlantic drift ice records and Greenland temperature indicated that the weakened ASM event at around 9.2 cal ka BP could be interpreted by the co-influence of external and internal factors, related to the changes of the solar activity and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  18. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  19. Multidecadal changes in the Etesians-Indian Summer Monsoon teleconnection along the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Ribera, Pedro; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2017-04-01

    In this work we made use of historical winds record taken aboard ships to reconstruct a series of the prevalent summer northerly winds (Etesian winds) over the Eastern Mediterranean for the entire 20th century. Previous studies have shown a significant link between the frequency and strength of these winds and the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but this relationship had only been studied in detail for the second half of the 20th century due to the absence of long and continous series of observed wind in the Eastern Mediterranean for previous periods. In this work, a new climatic index, the so-called " Etesian Wind Index " (EWI), is defined as the percentage of days with prevalent northerly wind (wind blowing from 305° to 35°) in a fixed region [20E-30E, 32N-37N]. By using historical wind observations, we have been able to compute this index for the summer (JJAS) since 1880 and analyze the long term variability of the Etesians, as well as to research into its relation with the ISM at an unprecedent temporal coverage. A running coverage analysis revealed a strong and significant positive correlation between the EWI and the strength of the ISM for the period 1960-1980, more markedly in July and August. This result is in accordance with other recent studies. However, we have found that the correalation fades out in the first half of the 20th century (1900-1950) and in the period 1980-2012, even showing significant negative values around the subperiod 1920-1950. Similar indices to the EWI were computed using two different 20th century reanalysis datasets (ERA20C and 20CR-V2C). Despite the fact that both indices show some discrepancies with the EWI before 1950, the correlation analysis with the ISM revealed similar results, pointing out a strong loss of the EWI-ISM correlation in the first half of the 20th century and from 1980 onwards, as well as a marked positive correlated period between 1960 and 1980, specially in August. In this study, we show that

  20. A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takahashi, Masaaki

    2012-11-01

    A tripolar anomaly pattern with centers located around the Philippines, China/Japan, and East Siberia dominantly appears in climate variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. In this study, we extracted this pattern as the first mode of a singular value decomposition (SVD1) over East Asia. The squared covariance fraction of SVD1 was 59 %, indicating that this pattern can be considered a dominant pattern of climate variations. Moreover, the results of numerical experiments suggested that the structure is also a dominant pattern of linear responses, even if external forcing is distributed homogeneously over the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the tripolar pattern can be considered an internal mode that is characterized by the internal atmospheric processes. In this pattern, the moist processes strengthen the circulation anomalies, the dynamical energy conversion supplies energy to the anomalies, and the Rossby waves propagate northward in the lower troposphere and southeastward in the upper troposphere. These processes are favorable for the pattern to have large amplitude and to influence a large area.

  1. A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takahashi, Masaaki [University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Chiba (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    A tripolar anomaly pattern with centers located around the Philippines, China/Japan, and East Siberia dominantly appears in climate variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. In this study, we extracted this pattern as the first mode of a singular value decomposition (SVD1) over East Asia. The squared covariance fraction of SVD1 was 59 %, indicating that this pattern can be considered a dominant pattern of climate variations. Moreover, the results of numerical experiments suggested that the structure is also a dominant pattern of linear responses, even if external forcing is distributed homogeneously over the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the tripolar pattern can be considered an internal mode that is characterized by the internal atmospheric processes. In this pattern, the moist processes strengthen the circulation anomalies, the dynamical energy conversion supplies energy to the anomalies, and the Rossby waves propagate northward in the lower troposphere and southeastward in the upper troposphere. These processes are favorable for the pattern to have large amplitude and to influence a large area. (orig.)

  2. The value of C sub(e) for the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, A.S.; Sadhuram, Y.; Krishna, V.V.G.

    We estimate, from the moisture budget the bulk aerodynamic coefficient for latent heat flux (C sub(e)) during the monsoon season over the central Arabian Sea. The average value of C sub(e) under active monsoon conditions was found to be 2.25 x 10...

  3. Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielli, Soline; Douville, Hervé; Pohl, Benjamin

    2010-07-01

    General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance

  4. Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bielli, Soline; Douville, Herve; Pohl, Benjamin [CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

    2010-07-15

    General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance

  5. Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Krishnamurthy, V. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space-time structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30 days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison. (orig.)

  6. Characteristics of monsoonal circulation over the western Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, J; Chen, E

    1980-01-01

    In this article the meteorological observations on ships four times daily in the area between 0 to 46/sup 0/N, 90 to 155/sup 0/E has been utilized. The grid 2 x 2 degrees along coastal waters, and 5 x 5 degrees over the open sea have been used. Here the monsoon currents over the western Pacific are calculated and analyzed and a brief discussion is given. The following three criteria were obtained: (1) The monsoon current over the western Pacific between winter and summer changed almost in opposite directions with April and October being the transitional months. In general the wind direction change from summer to winter went from the coastal waters to the open sea. (2) After the discussion about the duration and the prevailing wind directions, the following was determined: during the winter monsoon period, the 25/sup 0/N latitudinal line may be regarded as the boundary from October to March when the winter wind directions inclined N (NW or N) to the north of that line; but to the south of it NE winds prevailed. However, the durations were quite different in different regions, ranging from five to nine months. Owing to the topographic influence of the Taiwan Strait, the duration of the NE wind lasted nine months. The 25/sup 0/N line may also be applied for summer monsoons; over the eastern open ocean from the Gulf of the Bohai Sea and the Japanese islands the southerly winds lasted about nine months, but in the Taiwan Strait they lasted only two months. (3) During the winter monsoon period, the region of strong winds which encircled the continent was over the open ocean to the east of the Japanese islands and the Philippines. However, it was not as near to the shore line as in the winter season, and the frequency of strong winds was somewhat more on the southern side of the 25/sup 0/N line.

  7. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  8. What caused the cool summer over northern Central Asia, East Asia and central North America during 2009?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Chu, Jung-Eun; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Hameed, Saji N; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Cool and wet weather conditions hit northern Central Asia, East Asia and central North America during the 2009 summer in concert with a strong jet stream and a prominent meandering upper-level circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes despite the fact that the year 2009 is the fifth warmest year globally in the modern record. It is found that the conspicuous atmospheric variability in the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the summer of 2009 was caused by a combination of teleconnections associated with significant tropical thermal forcings, strong polar forcing, and interaction between high-frequency weather events and climate anomalies. The strong negative circumglobal teleconnection pattern associated with the deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall and developing El Niño condition was the major contributor to the cool and wet summer in June. On the other hand, the July weather conditions were attributable to the high-latitude impact of the unprecedented negative Arctic Oscillation, together with the Rossby wave response to the subtropical heating generated by convective activities over the Western North Pacific summer monsoon region. It is also noted that enhanced storm track activity and frequent cold surges from high-latitudes may have played a role in the cool and wet summer over the regions of interest. (letter)

  9. Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-03-01

    Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

  10. Methyl chloride in the UT/LS observed by CARIBIC: global distribution, Asian summer monsoon outflow, and use as a tracer for tropical air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, A. K.; Umezawa, T.; Oram, D.; Sauvage, C.; Rauthe-Schoech, A.; Montzka, S. A.; Zahn, A.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present spatiotemporal variations of methyl chloride (CH3Cl) in the UT/LS observed mainly by the CARIBIC passenger aircraft for the years 2005-2011. The CH3Cl mixing ratio in the UT over Europe was higher than that observed at a European surface baseline station year-round, indicative of a persistent positive vertical gradient at NH mid latitudes. A series of flights over Africa and South Asia show that CH3Cl mixing ratios increase toward tropical latitudes, and the observed UT CH3Cl level over these two regions and the Atlantic was higher than that measured at remote surface sites. Strong emissions of CH3Cl in the tropics combined with meridional transport through the UT may explain such vertical and latitudinal gradients. Comparisons with CO data indicate that non-combustion sources in the tropics dominantly contribute to forming the latitudinal gradient of CH3Cl in the UT. We also observed elevated CH3Cl and CO in air influenced by biomass burning in South America and Africa, and the enhancement ratios derived for CH3Cl to CO in those regions agree with previous observations. In contrast, correlations indicate a high CH3Cl to CO ratio of 2.9±0.5 ppt ppb-1 in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone and domestic biofuel emissions in South Asia are inferred to be responsible. We estimated CH3Cl emissions from South Asia to be 134±23 Gg Cl yr-1, which is higher than a previous estimate due to the higher CH3Cl to CO ratio observed in this study. We also examine the use of CH3Cl as a tracer of tropical tropospheric air in the LMS, where we identified air masses with elevated CH3Cl that were however stratospheric in terms of N2O. Back trajectories suggest recent low-latitude origins of such air masses in early summer. In this season, high CH3Cl LMS air shows a clear branch connecting stratospheric and tropical tropospheric air on N2O-CH3Cl scatterplots. This distinct feature vanishes in late summer when the LMS is ventilated by tropospheric air.

  11. A strengthened East Asian Summer Monsoon during Pliocene warmth: Evidence from 'red clay' sediments at Pianguan, northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shiling; Ding, Zhongli; Feng, Shaohua; Jiang, Wenying; Huang, Xiaofang; Guo, Licheng

    2018-04-01

    The Pliocene epoch (5.3-2.6 Ma) is the most recent geological interval in which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to those of the present day (∼400 ppmv). This epoch is therefore considered to be the best ancient analog for predicting a future anthropogenic greenhouse world. In order to determine the response of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainbelt during Pliocene warmth, a 71.9 m-thick aeolian 'red clay' sequence at Pianguan was investigated. Rock magnetic experiments suggest that magnetite of pseudo-single domain size is the dominant remanence carrier in the 'red clay' sequence. Magnetostratigraphic data, constrained by lithostratigraphy, show that the polarity zones of the 'red clay' section correlate with those between subchrons C2An.2r and C3An.2n of the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS), yielding an age range of 6.9-2.9 Ma. The 'red clay' deposits exhibit enhanced weathering intensity over two time intervals, namely 5.23-4.3 Ma and 3.7-2.9 Ma, as evidenced by their well-developed pedogenic characteristics, as well as their high free to total Fe2O3 ratios and high redness (a∗) values, which in turn indicate an increased summer monsoon intensity during most of the Pliocene. Furthermore, the pedogenic characteristics of the well-weathered Pliocene soils were compared with those of paleosol unit S5 (one of the best-developed soil units found in Pleistocene loess) from the Yulin, Luochuan and Lantian sections, which constitute a north-south transect across the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). The Pliocene soils at Pianguan show a pedogenic development similar to the S5 (∼0.5 Ma) at Luochuan in the central Plateau, which is located some 3.7° latitude south of Pianguan, but this development is much stronger than that observed at Yulin in the north, and weaker than that seen at Lantian in the south. This may imply a more northerly penetration (∼400 km) of the monsoon rainbelt during Pliocene warmth compared with the Pleistocene interglacial

  12. Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, T.; Uchida, M.; Minoura, K.; Kondo, M.; Rella, S. F.; Shibata, Y.

    2011-06-01

    Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ13C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ13C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ18O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ13C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming) periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry) and dry (wet) environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH). The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ13C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in Japan. On the other hand, the 680 yr periodicity between 10.0 and 8.0 kyr is

  13. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-04-01

    A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

  14. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhanqing [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Lau, W. K. -M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Ramanathan, V. [Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego California USA; Wu, G. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Ding, Y. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Manoj, M. G. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Liu, J. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Qian, Y. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Li, J. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhou, T. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Rosenfeld, D. [Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem Israel; Ming, Y. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton New Jersey USA; Wang, Y. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Huang, J. [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou China; Wang, B. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Hawaii USA; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Xu, X. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Lee, S. -S. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Cribb, M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Zhang, F. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Yang, X. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhao, C. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Takemura, T. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka Japan; Wang, K. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Xia, X. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Yin, Y. [School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Zhang, H. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Guo, J. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhai, P. M. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Sugimoto, N. [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan; Babu, S. S. [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram India; Brasseur, G. P. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany

    2016-11-15

    Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  15. Residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi, a monsoonal estuary: A three-dimensional model study

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vijith, V.; Shetye, S.R.; Baetens, K.; Luyten, P.; Michael, G.S.

    -dependence is forced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and hence the estuary is referred to as a monsoonal estuary. In this paper, we use a three-dimensional, open source, hydrodynamic, numerical model to reproduce the observed annual salinity field in the Mandovi. We...

  16. From monsoon to marine productivity in the Arabian Sea: insights from glacial and interglacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Mézo, Priscilla; Beaufort, Luc; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

    2017-07-01

    The current-climate Indian monsoon is known to boost biological productivity in the Arabian Sea. This paradigm has been extensively used to reconstruct past monsoon variability from palaeo-proxies indicative of changes in surface productivity. Here, we test this paradigm by simulating changes in marine primary productivity for eight contrasted climates from the last glacial-interglacial cycle. We show that there is no straightforward correlation between boreal summer productivity of the Arabian Sea and summer monsoon strength across the different simulated climates. Locally, productivity is fuelled by nutrient supply driven by Ekman dynamics. Upward transport of nutrients is modulated by a combination of alongshore wind stress intensity, which drives coastal upwelling, and by a positive wind stress curl to the west of the jet axis resulting in upward Ekman pumping. To the east of the jet axis there is however a strong downward Ekman pumping due to a negative wind stress curl. Consequently, changes in coastal alongshore stress and/or curl depend on both the jet intensity and position. The jet position is constrained by the Indian summer monsoon pattern, which in turn is influenced by the astronomical parameters and the ice sheet cover. The astronomical parameters are indeed shown to impact wind stress intensity in the Arabian Sea through large-scale changes in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature. However, both the astronomical parameters and the ice sheets affect the pattern of wind stress curl through the position of the sea level depression barycentre over the monsoon region (20-150° W, 30° S-60° N). The combined changes in monsoon intensity and pattern lead to some higher glacial productivity during the summer season, in agreement with some palaeo-productivity reconstructions.

  17. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  18. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

    2015-11-09

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  19. Large-scale control of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion in August

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chi-Hua; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

    2017-12-01

    The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India-Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia-Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India-Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa-Asia-WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

  20. The Asian Monsoon Links to Solar Changes and the Intertropical Convergence Zone and 1300 Years of Chinese Human Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Hsu, Y.; Lee, T.

    2011-12-01

    Here we present a new paleoclimatic record from a sediment core recovered in Lake Liyutan in central Taiwan over the last 1300 years. The age model is based on 2 AMS 14C dates. Adjustments of age were using the well-dated records from a near by lake sediment core. The Lake Liyutan sediments record the strength of the summer monsoon in two independent ways: (1) the magnetic parameters (ARM/χ, ARM, anhysteresis remenent magnetization; χ, Volume susceptibility) and magnetic susceptibility, and (2) total organic carbon content, organic C/N elemental ratio and δ13Corg of the sediments as a result of changes in different organic matter origins and terrigenous detritus dilution due to precipitation. All the proxy records are 10 to 30- year-resolution. Weaker summer monsoon phases reconstructed from the Lake Liyutan correlate with higher δ18O at Dongge and Hulu caves, which indicates lower summer precipitation rates. Moreover, it is interesting to find that the strong winter monsoon from the Lake Huguang Maar records show a synchronous relationship with weaker summer monsoon from the caves and the Lake Liyutan. From the coincidence in timing, these records were explained by migrations in the intertropical convergence zone. In addition, the weak Asian summer monsoon in the Lake Liyutan corresponds with lowering Northern Hemisphere summer insolation recorded at Dongge cave. Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. We note that, on the basis of our new lake record, major changes in Chinese dynasties occurred when the summer monsoon strength was weaker and rainfall was reduced. The Tang dynasty began to ebb in the eighth century, and it fully collapsed in AD907, then the dynastic transitions to the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period. The weak summer monsoon and reduced rainfall was indicated in the coincidence in timing of the sediment core LYT-3A from Lake Liyutan during 1100 - 1000BP. In

  1. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrani Roy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  2. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molteni, Franco; Corti, Susanna; Ferranti, Laura; Slingo, Julia M.

    2003-07-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

  3. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: Impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molteni, F.; Corti, S.; Ferranti, L.; Slingo, J.M.

    2002-04-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall yields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

  4. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  5. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  6. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  7. Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

    1988-01-01

    Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

  8. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  9. Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

    2014-11-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

  10. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  11. Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet condition since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

    2014-04-01

    Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the

  12. Phytoplankton size structure in the southern Bay of Bengal modified by the Summer Monsoon Current and associated eddies: Implications on the vertical biogenic flux..

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jyothibabu, R; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Madhu, N.V.; Robin, R; Karman, C.; Jagadeesan, L.; Anjusha, A.

    . Mar. Syst., vol.143; 2015; 98–119 Phytoplankton Size Structure in the Southern Bay of Bengal Modified by the Summer Monsoon Current and Associated Eddies: Implications on the Vertical Biogenic Flux R. Jyothibabu1*, P. N. Vinayachandran2, N. V.... Madhu1, R.S. Robin3, C. Karnan1, L. Jagadeesan1, A. Anjusha1 1CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Kochi, India 2Centre for Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India 3Integrated Coastal...

  13. Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show ... to affect the Indian summer monsoon rainfall indi- ... Monthly composite picture of ESI during (a) positive (28 years) and (b) negative (25 years) tendency of ESI.

  14. Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

    2018-05-01

    The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

  15. Monsoon Convection during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment Observed from Shipboard Radar and the TRMM Satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickenbach, Tom; Cifelli, Rob; Halverson, Jeff; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina; Liu, Ching-Hwang; hide

    1999-01-01

    A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed during the active monsoon periods in a southwesterly flow regime. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from ship-based and spacebome radar reflectivity data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Further examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will be discussed. A strong waterspout was observed very near the ship from an isolated cell in the pre-monsoon period, and was well documented with photography, radar, sounding, and sounding data.

  16. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    CERN Document Server

    Molteni, F; Ferranti, L; Slingo, J M

    2003-01-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. O...

  17. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

    2005-08-01

    Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a

  18. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-06-11

    The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust–ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44mmday1 ( 10% of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan Plateau. This study demonstrates

  19. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.; Wei, J.; Yang, Z.-L.; Pu, B.; Huang, J.

    2015-01-01

    © Author(s) 2015. The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust-ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44 mm day-1 (∼10 % of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan

  20. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-09-02

    © Author(s) 2015. The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust-ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44 mm day-1 (∼10 % of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan

  1. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  2. The inter-decadal correlation between summer arctic oscillation and summer drought and moist characteristic of northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pengxiang; Zheng, Youfei; Sun, Landong; Ren, Zhenhe; He, Jinhai; Zhang, Qiang

    2007-09-01

    In the context of 1960~2003 summertime rainfall and small-sized pan evaporations from 131 stations distributed over NW China covering Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi as well as western Nei Mongolia, and Arctic Oscillation Indices (AOI) we define a homogenized index for aridity or wetness feature, with which to examine the relations between AOI and NW China aridity-wetness regime, indicating their noticeable relations on an interdecadal basis. It is found that during the decade of summer Arctic oscillation stronger than mean, the sea level pressure field shows positive (negative) anomalies over Asian landmass, a stronger anticyclonic anomaly circulation appears at 700 hPa over Lake Baikal and to the south, westerly (northerly) departure emerges in the westerly (monsoon) portion of NW China, as well as over NW China there appears a structure with a low in the west and a high in the east at the 500 hPa height field, suggestive of east-Asian summer monsoon weaker than normal such that westerly flows prevail in the westerly zone of NW China, leading to rainfall more than mean for a wetter climate while in its monsoon area the northerly winds are dominant, with precipitation less than normal, resulting in a climate drier in comparison to mean and v.v. for the decade with summer AO weaker than normal.

  3. Three-Dimensional modelling of the long-term variability of tracer transport in the Asian Summer Monsoon anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taverna, Giorgio; Chipperfield, Martyn; Feng, Wuhu; Pope, Richard; Hossaini, Ryan; Forster, Piers

    2017-04-01

    The Asian Monsoon is an important region for the transport of gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Recent work by many groups has focused on quantifying processes which contribute to coupling in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS), including transport during the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Troposphere-to-stratosphere transport in this region has been the focus of a number of recent campaigns, including the EU "StratoClim campaign" in Kalamata, Greece, 2016. Anthropogenic compounds such as CO Very Short-Lived Substances (VSLS), which destroy stratospheric ozone, and sulphur compounds, which maintain the stratospheric aerosol layer, are among the important species involved in large convective systems transport such as the ASM. An important question for halogenated VSLS is whether ASM-associated transport can take place on timescales which are short relative to their chemical lifetimes of days to months. This talk will present results of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT off-line 3-D chemical transport model to investigate these issues using moderate-resolution simulations (2.8°x2.8°, 60 levels from surface to 60 km). The model is forced by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. A 1979-2016 simulation was run using artificial and idealized tracers with parametrized loss rates, lifetimes and emissions. These types of tracer have already been successfully used to study the transport of VSLS from surface through the TTL. The interannual variability of the transport inside and through the ASM anticyclone and related confinement will be shown and quantified. Comparisons will be made with in-situ and remote satellite data, where possible.

  4. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Gao, Yongli; Xu, Hai; Zhang, Haiwei; An, Zhisheng

    2018-01-01

    The upper Hanjiang River region is the recharge area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The region is under construction of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in China. Monsoon precipitation variations in this region are critical to water resource and security of China. In this study, high-resolution monsoon precipitation variations were reconstructed in the upper Hanjiang River region over the past 6650 years from δ18O and δ13C records of four stalagmites in Xianglong cave. The long term increasing trend of stalagmite δ18O record since the middle Holocene is consistent with other speleothem records from monsoonal China. This trend follows the gradually decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which indicates that solar insolation may control the orbital-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations. Despite the declined EASM intensity since the middle Holocene, local precipitation may not have decreased remarkably, as revealed by the δ13C records. A series of centennial- to decadal-scale cyclicity was observed, with quasi-millennium-, quasi-century-, 57-, 36- and 22-year cycles by removing the long-term trend of stalagmite δ18O record. Increased monsoon precipitation during periods of 4390-3800 a BP, 3590-2960 a BP, 2050-1670 a BP and 1110-790 a BP had caused four super-floods in the upper reach of Hanjiang River. Dramatically dry climate existed in this region during the 5.0 ka and 2.8 ka events, coinciding with notable droughts in other regions of monsoonal China. Remarkably intensified and southward Westerly jet, together with weakened summer monsoon, may delay the onset of rainy seasons, resulting in synchronous decreasing of monsoon precipitation in China during the two events. During the 4.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age, the upper Hanjiang River region was wet, which was similar to the climate conditions in central and southern China, but was the opposite of drought observed in northern China. We

  5. Monsoon oscillations of the Findlater Jet and coastal winds of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pankajakshan, T.; Zhao, C.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Rao, G.S.P.; Sugimori, Y.

    Intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Low Level Jet (LLJ) and its effects on coastal winds during the Indian summer monsoon are examined using National Centre for Environmental Prediction / National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP) reanalyses...

  6. The crucial role of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, R.; Swapna, P.; Ayantika, D.C.; Mujumdar, M. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Sundaram, Suchithra [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Kumar, Vinay [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean-atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean - in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. (orig.)

  7. Impacts of Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction on Rainfall and Circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

    2016-01-01

    The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all- India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: 1) control with no aerosol, 2) aerosol radiative effect only and 3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into mesoscale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

  8. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna; Kalita, Gayatry; Kumar, K. Ravi; Gasparini, Blaž; Li, Jui-Lin Frank

    2017-01-01

    The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  9. Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on heat wave occurrence in Asia and Europe during the summer of 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, June-Yi; Hsu, Pang-Chi; ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hae-Jeong; Jung, Yoo-Rim

    2017-04-01

    The summer of 2016 was the earth's hottest summer on record since 1880. Especially, in August, the global mean temperature was 1.66 degree higher than normal and heat waves set records across Asia, Europe, and North America. This study proposes that boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) played an important role in heat wave outbreaks over many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics in the summer 2016 in addition to other factors including global warming, atmosphere-land interaction, and Africa-Pakistan heavy rainfall. By utilizing the real-time multivariate BSISO indices recently proposed, it has been demonstrated that the two dominant BSISO modes significantly modulate occurrence probability and spatial distributions of extreme rainfall and heat wave over Asia and Europe depending on their phases. The BSISO1 represents the canonical northward propagating variability that often occurs in conjunction with the eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation with quasi-oscillating periods of 30-60 days. The BSISO2 represents the northward/northwestward propagating variability with periods of 10-30 days during primarily the pre-monsoon and monsoon-onset season. In August of 2016, BSISO1 was very active with amplitude up to 2 standard deviation and stayed at phase 7 state for about 20 days. During the phase 7 of BSISO1, extreme convective activity over the South China Sea and western North Pacific typically exerts significant global teleconnection leading to heat wave occurrence over East Asia including Korea and Japan, some part of Russia and Europe, and the western and eastern part of North America. In particular, anticyclonic circulation anomaly tends to be developed over East Asia inducing enhanced adiabatic and diabatic warming over Korea and Japan providing a favorable condition for extreme heat wave occurrence. The August of 2016 exhibited the typical global teleconnection pattern of BSISO1 associated with active convection over the western

  10. Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ueda, Hiroaki; Kuroki, Harumitsu; Kamae, Youichi [University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ohba, Masamichi [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Abiko (Japan)

    2011-12-15

    Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air-sea-land interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer

  11. Recent predictors of Indian summer monsoon based on Indian and Pacific Ocean SST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

    2018-02-01

    This study investigates the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) of various geographical locations of Indian and Pacific Ocean with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to identify possible predictors of ISMR. We identified eight SST predictors based on spatial patterns of correlation coefficients between ISMR and SST of the regions mentioned above during the time domain 1982-2013. The five multiple linear regression (MLR) models have been developed by these predictors in various combinations. The stability and performance of these MLR models are verified using cross-validation method and other statistical methods. The skill of forecast to predict observed ISMR from these MLR models is found to be substantially better based on various statistical verification measures. It is observed that the MLR models constructed using the combination of SST indices in tropical and extra tropical Indian and Pacific is able to predict ISMR accurately for almost all the years during the time domain of our study. We tried to propose the physical mechanism of the teleconnection through regression analysis with wind over Indian subcontinent and the eight predictors and the results are in the conformity with correlation coefficient analysis. The robustness of these models is seen by predicting the ISMR during recent independent years of 2014-2017 and found the model 5 is able to predict ISMR accurately in these years also.

  12. Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

    2018-01-01

    This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

  13. Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

  14. Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of various scenarios of a gradual snow and glaciers developing over the Tibetan Plateau on climate change in Afro-Asian monsoon region and other regions during the Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP are studied by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. The simulations show that the imposed snow and glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau in the mid-Holocene induce global summer temperature decreases over most of Eurasia but in the Southern Asia temperature response is opposite. With the imposed snow and glaciers, summer precipitation decreases strongly in North Africa and South Asia as well as northeastern China, while it increases in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. For the whole period of Holocene (9 kyr BP–0 kyr BP, the response of vegetation cover to the imposed snow and glaciers cover over the Tibetan Plateau is not synchronous in South Asia and in North Africa, showing an earlier and a more rapid decrease in vegetation cover in North Africa from 9 kyr BP to 6 kyr BP while it has only minor influence on that in South Asia until 5 kyr BP. The precipitation decreases rapidly in North Africa and South Asia while it decreases slowly or unchanged during 6 kyr BP to 0 kyr BP with imposed snow and glacier cover over the Tibetan Plateau. The different scenarios of snow and glacier developing over the Tibetan Plateau would result in differences in variation of temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover in North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The model results suggest that the development of snow and ice cover over Tibetan Plateau represents an additional important climate feedback, which amplify orbital forcing and produces a significant synergy with the positive vegetation feedback.

  15. Indian Summer Monsoon dynamics during Termination II and MIS 5e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiera, Matthias; Erhardt, Andrea M.; Hartland, Adam; Kwiecien, Ola; Cheng, Hai; Immenhauser, Adrian; Turchyn, Alexandra; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2017-04-01

    The interpretation of speleothem oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) as proxy for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics is ambiguous, due to multiple influencing factors. Here we combine δ18O and calcium isotope δ44Ca analyses with elemental data to delineate regional shifts in moisture source, local rainfall amount, and changes in ISM intensity and length during Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope ratios reflect a mixed signal of moisture source dynamics and rainfall amount; δ44Ca and Mg/Ca ratios are interpreted as proxies for local effective moisture and prior calcite precipitation (PCP) in the epikarst. The age of stalagmite MAW-3 from Mawmluh Cave, NE India, is constraint by six U-series dates. 108 samples, obtained at 0.4 mm resolution from the 70 mm long speleothem sample, have been analysed for δ18O, δ44Ca and Mg/Ca. Oxygen isotope ratios were measured on a ThermoFisher Scientific MAT 253 at Ruhr-University Bochum. Elemental ratios were measured on a quadrupole ICP-MS at Waikato University. Calcium isotope ratios were analyzed on a ThermoFisher Scientific Triton at University of Cambridge. MAW-3 grew from 136 kyrs BP to 96 kyrs BP, covering Termination II and MIS 5e. Oxygen isotope values are high (ca. +0.91 ‰) during Termination II, reach a minimum during MIS 5e (-3.5 ‰), and rise again to -0.2 ‰ at the end of MIS 5e. Calcium isotope ratios range from -0.32 ‰ to -0.70 ‰ and show a positive correlation (R2= 0.7) with δ18O. High δ18O values during Termination II reflect reduced atmospheric circulation and/or a proximal moisture source (Bay of Bengal), implying lowered ISM intensity. A positive correlation of δ18O with δ44Ca suggests concurrent changes of moisture source location and local rainfall amount, with a proximal moisture source and reduced effective rainfall during periods of weak ISM. Elevated Mg/Ca ratios at such intervals corroborate PCP occurrence, which reflects dry conditions. The beginning of MIS 5e (ca. 132 kyrs BP) is

  16. Condensation heating of the Asian summer monsoon and the subtropical anticyclone in the Eastern Hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Y.M.; Wu, G.X.; Liu, H.; Liu, P. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2001-02-01

    The effects of condensation heating on the formation of the subtropical anticyclone in the Eastern Hemisphere (EH) are studied by means of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The complete vorticity equation is employed for the analysis. It is found that, due to the vertical gradient of strong condensation heating, the distribution of cyclone and anticyclone in the upper troposphere is out of phase with that in the middle and lower troposphere. This is confirmed by a series of numerical experiments. The horizontal gradient of the condensation heating also affects the configuration of the subtropical anticyclone. It is concluded that condensation heating is a key factor for the formation and location of the summer subtropical anticyclone in the EH. The latent heating released by the Asian monsoon rainfall contributes to the formation of the 200 hPa South Asian anticyclone on the western side of the heating center and the 500 hPa western Pacific subtropical anticyclone on the eastern side of the center. Such configurations are modified to some extent by surface sensible heating and orography. The circulation in mid-latitudes is also affected by the latent heating in the subtropical area through the propagation of Rossby waves. (orig.)

  17. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming; Zhou, Bowen; Zhao, Kun; Sun, Zhengqi; Fu, Peiling; Zheng, Yongguang; Zhang, Xiaoling; Meng, Qingtao

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts at a 4 km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d-1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations.

  18. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Singh, Prem

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  19. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.

    2017-10-26

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  20. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  1. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  2. Chemical composition and characteristics of ambient aerosols and rainwater residues during Indian summer monsoon: Insight from aerosol mass spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Abhishek; Gupta, Tarun; Tripathi, Sachchida N.

    2016-07-01

    Real time composition of non-refractory submicron aerosol (NR-PM1) is measured via Aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) for the first time during Indian summer monsoon at Kanpur, a polluted urban location located at the heart of Indo Gangetic Plain (IGP). Submicron aerosols are found to be dominated by organics followed by nitrate. Source apportionment of organic aerosols (OA) via positive matrix factorization (PMF) revealed several types of secondary/oxidized and primary organic aerosols. On average, OA are completely dominated by oxidized OA with a very little contribution from biomass burning OA. During rain events, PM1 concentration is decreased almost by 60%, but its composition remains nearly the same. Oxidized OA showed slightly more decrease than primary OAs, probably due to their higher hygroscopicity. The presence of organo nitrates (ON) is also detected in ambient aerosols. Apart from real-time sampling, collected fog and rainwater samples were also analyzed via AMS in offline mode and in the ICP-OES (Inductively coupled plasma - Optical emission spectrometry) for elements. The presence of sea salt, organo nitrates and sulfates has been observed. Rainwater residues are also dominated by organics but their O/C ratios are 15-20% lower than the observed values for ambient OA. Alkali metals such as Ca, Na, K are found to be most abundant in the rainwater followed by Zn. Rainwater residues are also found to be much less oxidized than the aerosols present inside the fog water, indicating presence of less oxidized organics. These findings indicate that rain can act as an effective scavenger of different types of pollutants even for submicron particle range. Rainwater residues also contain organo sulfates which indicate that some portion of the dissolved aerosols has undergone aqueous processing, possibly inside the cloud. Highly oxidized and possibly hygroscopic OA during monsoon period compared to other seasons (winter, post monsoon), indicates that they can act

  3. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  4. Monsoonal Responses to External Forcings over the Past Millennium: A Model Study (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Wang, B.

    2009-12-01

    The climate variations related to Global Monsoon (GM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall over the past 1000 years were investigated by analysis of a pair of millennium simulations with the coupled climate model named ECHO-G. The free run was generated using fixed external (annual cycle) forcing, while the forced run was obtained using time-varying solar irradiance variability, greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) concentration and estimated radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. The model results indicate that the centennial-millennial variation of the GM and EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcings (insolation, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases). The GM strength responds more directly to the effective solar forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of the volcanoes) when compared to responses of the global mean surface temperature on centennial timescale. The simulated GM precipitation in the forced run exhibits a significant quasi-bi-centennial oscillation. Weak GM precipitation was simulated during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850) with three weakest periods concurring with the Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimum of solar activity. Conversely, strong GM was simulated during the model Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1030-1240). Before the industrial period, the natural variation in effective solar forcing reinforces the thermal contrasts both between the ocean and continent and between the northern and southern hemispheres, resulting in millennium-scale variation and the quasi-bi-centennial oscillation of the GM. The prominent upward trend in the GM precipitation occurring in the last century and the remarkably strengthening of the global monsoon in the period of 1961-1990 appear unprecedented and owed possibly in part to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The EASM has the largest meridional extent (5oN-55oN) among all the regional monsoons on globe. Thus, the EASM provides an unique opportunity for

  5. Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a 'new' data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.

  6. Association between premonsoonal SST anomaly field in the eastern Arabian Sea and subsequent monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sarma, M.S.S.

    -September) summer monsoon rainfall over the central west coast of India. Premonsoonal warm SST anomaly seems to be mainly the result of higher atmospheric subsidence over the ocean and may not be considered as predictor for a good ensuing monsoon, emphasizing...

  7. Variability of mixed layer depth in the northern Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.

    quantitatively making use of time-series data collected during MONSOON-77 and MONEX-79 programmes. After the onset of monsoon (June/July 1977) over the central Arabian Sea, wind stress together with possible sinking processes on account of negative wind stress...

  8. Coastal processes at the southern tip of India during summer monsoon 2005

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Smitha, B.R; VimalKumar, K.G.; Sanjeevan, V.N.

    . Analysis indicates that the system is in harmony with the southwest monsoon winds, maximum during July with horizontal SST gradient of 4 degrees C and 1.17m/ day of vertical velocity. The role of local wind forcing is verified by comparing the isothermal...

  9. Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licht, A; van Cappelle, M; Abels, H A; Ladant, J-B; Trabucho-Alexandre, J; France-Lanord, C; Donnadieu, Y; Vandenberghe, J; Rigaudier, T; Lécuyer, C; Terry, D; Adriaens, R; Boura, A; Guo, Z; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J; Dupont-Nivet, G; Jaeger, J-J

    2014-09-25

    The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.

  10. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Monsoon Effect on the Temperature Lapse Rate of a Subtropical Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-An Chiu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature lapse rate (TLR has been widely used in the prediction of mountain climate and vegetation and in many ecological models. The aims of this paper are to explore the spatio-temporal variations and monsoon effects on the TLR in the subtropical island of Taiwan with its steep Central Mountain Region (CMR. A TLR analysis using the 32-year monthly mean air temperatures and elevations from 219 weather stations (sea level to 3852 m a.s.l. was performed based on different geographical regions and monsoon exposures. The results revealed that the average TLR for all of Taiwan is -5.17°C km-1, with a general tendency to be steeper in summer and shallower in winter. The results are also shallower than the typical or global average TLR of -6.5°C km-1. During the prevailing northeast monsoon season (winter, the TLR exhibits a contrast between the windward side (steeper, -5.97°C km-1 and the leeward side (shallower, -4.51°C km-1. From the diagnosis on spatial characteristics of monthly cloud amount and vertical atmospheric profiles, this contrasting phenomenon may be explained by the warming effect of onshore stratus clouds (500 - 2500 m depth on cold and dry Siberian monsoon air on the windward side of the CMR. On the southwestern leeward side of the CMR, the low-level (1500 m, the weak ventilation atmosphere and temperature inversion make the TLR shallower than on the windward side.

  11. Mid-Miocene C4 expansion on the Chinese Loess Plateau under an enhanced Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jibao; Liu, Zhonghui; An, Zhisheng; Liu, Weiguo; Zhou, Weijian; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan

    2018-06-01

    Atmospheric CO2 starvation, aridity, fire and warm season precipitation have all been proposed as major contributors to C4 plant expansion during the Late Miocene. However, the driving factors responsible for the distribution of C4 plants in the early and mid-Miocene still remain enigmatic. Here we report pedogenic carbon and oxygen isotope data (δ13Cpedo, δ18Opedo), along with magnetic susceptibility (MS) results, from the Zhuang Lang drilling core on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Elevated δ13Cpedo values (>-5‰) signal a prominent C4 expansion and substantially increased δ18Opedo and MS values indicate enhanced Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation. Both of these conditions are observed during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO), 14.5-17 million years ago. The marked increase in C4 plants, associated with warm temperatures and increased precipitation, strongly suggests the control of an enhanced ASM on C4 expansion on the CLP during the MMCO. This finding contrasts with the late-Miocene C4 expansion associated with cooling and drying conditions observed in low latitudes and argues for regionally specific control of C4 plant distribution/expansion.

  12. On the interannual variability of the Bonin high associated with the East Asian summer monsoon rain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, Sun-Seon [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea)

    2007-01-15

    In order to assess how the Bonin high affects interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) around the Korean Peninsula, the pulsation of the Bonin high and its association with teleconnection patterns was examined. The major factor for the interannual intensity of the EASM is the center position of the Bonin high rather than its center pressure. Up to 12 harmonics over time can be used to reconstruct the Bonin high, demonstrating its intraseasonal variation. The interannual variability of the Bonin high correlates with the Tibet high. This correlation is dominant for the EASM onset time, though not its retreat. The primary teleconnection pattern, reliant up on the interannual variability of the Bonin high, is the Western Pacific oscillation (WPO) in April. In relation to long-term variability, the correlation between the WPO and the Bonin high appears to contribute to the retreat stage of the EASM, which has itself increased since the mid-1970s. Furthermore, the WPO in May and the Tibet correlation has marked the onset rather than the retreat of the EASM since the 1970s. This highly correlated pattern since the mid-1970s may be the result of El Nino. (orig.)

  13. Upper air thermal inversion and their impact on the summer monsoon rainfall over Goa - A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swathi, M. S.; Muraleedharan, P. M.; Ramaswamy, V.; Rameshkumar, M. R.; Aswini, Anirudhan

    2018-04-01

    Profiles of periodic GPS Radiosonde ascends collected from a station at the west coast of India (Goa) during summer monsoon months (June to September) of 2009 and 2013 have been used to analyze the thermal inversion statistics at various heights and their repercussions on the regional weather is studied. The interaction of contrasting air masses over the northern Arabian Sea often produces a two layer structure in the lower 5000 m close to the coastal station with warm and dusty air (Summer Shamal) occupying the space above the cool and moist Low Level Jet (LLJ) by virtue of their density differences. The warm air intrusion creates low lapse rate pockets above LLJ and modifies the gravitational stability strong enough to inhibit convection. It is observed that the inversion occurring in the lower 3000 m layer with an optimum layer thickness of 100-200 m has profound influence on the weather beneath it. We demonstrated the validity of the proposed hypothesis by analyzing the collocated data from radiosonde, lidar and the rain gauge during 16th July 2013 as a case study. The lidar depolarization ratio provides evidence to support the two layer structure in the lidar backscatter image. The presence of dust noticed in the two layer interface hints the intrusion of warm air that makes the atmosphere stable enough to suppress convection. The daily rainfall record of 2013 surprisingly coincides with the patterns of a regional break like situation centered at 16th July 2013 in Goa.

  14. Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

    2017-03-01

    The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) signifies the commencement of the wet season over East Asia. Predicting the SCSSM onset date is of significant importance. In this study, we establish two different statistical models, namely the physical-empirical model (PEM) and the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM) to predict the SCSSM onset. The PEM is constructed from the seasonal prediction perspective. Observational diagnoses reveal that the early onset of the SCSSM is preceded by (a) a warming tendency in middle and lower troposphere (850-500 hPa) over central Siberia from January to March, (b) a La Niña-like zonal dipole sea surface temperature pattern over the tropical Pacific in March, and (c) a dipole sea level pressure pattern with negative center in subtropics and positive center over high latitude of Southern Hemisphere in January. The PEM built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated reforecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.84 for the period of 1979-2004, and an independent forecast TCC skill of 0.72 for the period 2005-2014. The STPM is built on the extended-range forecast perspective. Pentad data are used to predict a zonal wind index over the South China Sea region. Similar to PEM, the STPM is constructed using 1979-2004 data. Based on the forecasted zonal wind index, the independent forecast of the SCSSM onset dates achieves a TCC skill of 0.90 for 2005-2014. The STPM provides more detailed information for the intraseasonal evolution during the period of the SCSSM onset (pentad 25-35). The two models proposed herein are expected to facilitate the real-time prediction of the SCSSM onset.

  15. Monsoon Convective During the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment: Observations from Ground-Based Radar and the TRMM Satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, Rob; Rickenbach, Tom; Halverson, Jeff; Keenan, Tom; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina

    1999-01-01

    A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed following the onset of the active monsoon in the northern South China Sea region. The vertical structure of the convection during periods of strong westerly flow and relatively moist environmental conditions in the lower to mid-troposphere contrasted sharply with convection observed during periods of low level easterlies, weak shear, and relatively dry conditions in the mid to upper troposphere. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from the ground (ship)-based and spaceborne radar data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will also be discussed.

  16. Intensification and deepening of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in response to increase in Indian monsoon wind intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachkar, Zouhair; Lévy, Marina; Smith, Shafer

    2018-01-01

    The decline in oxygen supply to the ocean associated with global warming is expected to expand oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). This global trend can be attenuated or amplified by regional processes. In the Arabian Sea, the world's thickest OMZ is highly vulnerable to changes in the Indian monsoon wind. Evidence from paleo-records and future climate projections indicates strong variations of the Indian monsoon wind intensity over climatic timescales. Yet, the response of the OMZ to these wind changes remains poorly understood and its amplitude and timescale unexplored. Here, we investigate the impacts of perturbations in Indian monsoon wind intensity (from -50 to +50 %) on the size and intensity of the Arabian Sea OMZ, and examine the biogeochemical and ecological implications of these changes. To this end, we conducted a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the Arabian Sea using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nitrogen-based nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model that includes a representation of the O2 cycle. We show that the Arabian Sea productivity increases and its OMZ expands and deepens in response to monsoon wind intensification. These responses are dominated by the perturbation of the summer monsoon wind, whereas the changes in the winter monsoon wind play a secondary role. While the productivity responds quickly and nearly linearly to wind increase (i.e., on a timescale of years), the OMZ response is much slower (i.e., a timescale of decades). Our analysis reveals that the OMZ expansion at depth is driven by increased oxygen biological consumption, whereas its surface weakening is induced by increased ventilation. The enhanced ventilation favors episodic intrusions of oxic waters in the lower epipelagic zone (100-200 m) of the western and central Arabian Sea, leading to intermittent expansions of marine habitats and a more frequent alternation of hypoxic and oxic conditions there. The increased

  17. Intensification and deepening of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in response to increase in Indian monsoon wind intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lachkar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The decline in oxygen supply to the ocean associated with global warming is expected to expand oxygen minimum zones (OMZs. This global trend can be attenuated or amplified by regional processes. In the Arabian Sea, the world's thickest OMZ is highly vulnerable to changes in the Indian monsoon wind. Evidence from paleo-records and future climate projections indicates strong variations of the Indian monsoon wind intensity over climatic timescales. Yet, the response of the OMZ to these wind changes remains poorly understood and its amplitude and timescale unexplored. Here, we investigate the impacts of perturbations in Indian monsoon wind intensity (from −50 to +50 % on the size and intensity of the Arabian Sea OMZ, and examine the biogeochemical and ecological implications of these changes. To this end, we conducted a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the Arabian Sea using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS coupled to a nitrogen-based nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD ecosystem model that includes a representation of the O2 cycle. We show that the Arabian Sea productivity increases and its OMZ expands and deepens in response to monsoon wind intensification. These responses are dominated by the perturbation of the summer monsoon wind, whereas the changes in the winter monsoon wind play a secondary role. While the productivity responds quickly and nearly linearly to wind increase (i.e., on a timescale of years, the OMZ response is much slower (i.e., a timescale of decades. Our analysis reveals that the OMZ expansion at depth is driven by increased oxygen biological consumption, whereas its surface weakening is induced by increased ventilation. The enhanced ventilation favors episodic intrusions of oxic waters in the lower epipelagic zone (100–200 m of the western and central Arabian Sea, leading to intermittent expansions of marine habitats and a more frequent alternation of hypoxic and oxic conditions there

  18. Stable isotopic characteristic of Taiwan's precipitation: A case study of western Pacific monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Tsung-Ren; Wang, Chung-Ho; Huang, Chi-Chao; Fei, Li-Yuan; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Hwong, Jeen-Lian

    2010-01-01

    The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic features of precipitation in Taiwan, an island located at the western Pacific monsoon area, are presented from nearly 3,500 samples collected during the past decade for 20 stations. Results demonstrate that moisture sources from diverse air masses with different isotopic signals are the main parameter in controlling the precipitation's isotope characteristics. The air mass from polar continental (Pc) region contributes the precipitation with high deuterium excess values (up to 23‰) and relatively enriched isotope compositions (e.g., - 3.2‰ for δ 18O) during the winter with prevailing northeasterly monsoon. By contrast, air masses from equatorial maritime (Em) and tropical maritime (Tm) supply the precipitation with low deuterium excess values (as low as about 7‰) and more depleted isotope values (e.g., - 8.9‰ and - 6.0‰ for δ 18O of Tm and Em, respectively) during the summer with prevailing southwesterly monsoon. Thus seasonal differences in terms of δ 18O, δD, and deuterium excess values are primarily influenced by the interactions among various precipitation sources. While these various air masses travel through Taiwan, secondary evaporation effects further modify the isotope characteristics of the inland precipitation, such as raindrop evaporation (reduces the deuterium excess of winter precipitation) and moisture recycling (increases the deuterium excess of summer precipitation). The semi-quantitative estimations in terms of evaluation for changes in the deuterium excess suggest that the raindrop evaporation fractions for winter precipitation range 7% to 15% and the proportions of recycling moisture in summer precipitation are less than 5%. Additionally, the isotopic altitude gradient in terms of δ 18O for summer precipitation is - 0.22‰/100 m, greater than - 0.17‰/100 m of winter precipitation. The greater isotopic gradient in summer can be attributed to a higher temperature vs. altitude gradient

  19. Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bidyut B.; Deshpande, Medha; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Saha, Subodh K.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Murthugudde, Raghu; Goswami, B. N.

    2014-11-01

    We have evaluated the simulation of Indian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal oscillations in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The dry bias over the Indian landmass in the mean monsoon rainfall is one of the major concerns. In spite of this dry bias, CFSv2 shows a reasonable northward propagation of convection at intraseasonal (30-60 day) time scale. In order to document and understand this dry bias over the Indian landmass in CFSv2 simulations, a two pronged investigation is carried out on the two major facets of Indian summer monsoon: one, the air-sea interactions and two, the large scale vertical heating structure in the model. Our analysis shows a possible bias in the co-evolution of convection and sea surface temperature in CFSv2 over the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is also found that the simulated large scale vertical heat source (Q1) and moisture sink (Q2) over the Indian region are biased relative to observational estimates. Finally, this study provides a possible explanation for the dry precipitation bias over the Indian landmass in the simulated mean monsoon on the basis of the biases associated with the simulated ocean-atmospheric processes and the vertical heating structure. This study also throws some light on the puzzle of CFSv2 exhibiting a reasonable northward propagation at the intraseasonal time scale (30-60 day) despite a drier monsoon over the Indian land mass.

  20. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control ...

  1. SPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOUR OVER THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA DURING MONSOON SEASON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Salihin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides the precise information on spatial-temporal distribution of water vapour that was retrieved from Zenith Path Delay (ZPD which was estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS processing over the Malaysian Peninsular. A time series analysis of these ZPD and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV values was done to capture the characteristic on their seasonal variation during monsoon seasons. This study was found that the pattern and distribution of atmospheric water vapour over Malaysian Peninsular in whole four years periods were influenced by two inter-monsoon and two monsoon seasons which are First Inter-monsoon, Second Inter-monsoon, Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon.

  2. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  3. CloudSat observations of cloud-type distribution over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. Subrahmanyam

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional distribution of various cloud types over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM region using five years (2006–2010 of CloudSat observations during June-July-August-September months is discussed for the first time. As the radiative properties, latent heat released and microphysical properties of clouds differ largely depending on the cloud type, it becomes important to know what types of clouds occur over which region. In this regard, the present analysis establishes the three-dimensional distribution of frequency of occurrence of stratus (St, stratocumulus (Sc, nimbostratus (Ns, cumulus (Cu, altocumulus (Ac, altostratus (As, cirrus (Ci and deep convective (DC clouds over the ISM region. The results show that the various cloud types preferentially occur over some regions of the ISM, which are consistent during all the years of observations. It is found that the DC clouds frequently occur over northeast of Bay of Bengal (BoB, Ci clouds over a wide region of south BoB–Indian peninsula–equatorial Indian Ocean, and Sc clouds over the north Arabian Sea. Ac clouds preferentially occur over land, and a large amount of As clouds are found over BoB. The occurrence of both St and Ns clouds over the study region is much lower than all other cloud types.The interannual variability of all these clouds including their vertical distribution is discussed. It is envisaged that the present study opens up possibilities to quantify the feedback of individual cloud type in the maintenance of the ISM through radiative forcing and latent heat release.

  4. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  5. Characteristics and seasonal variation of hydrochemistry in the Tangra Yumco basin, central Tibetan Plateau, and its response to Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junbo; Qiao, Baojin; Huang, Lei; Zhu, Liping

    2016-04-01

    water and river water is much higher during Indian summer monsoon (ISM) period than the pre-monsoon period. The TDS concentration of lake water shows a rapid increase from early August and reaches 2.5 times of pre-monsoon period within one month indicating that due to the rise of temperature and increase of rainfall, rock weathering is enhanced, thus the runoff could take much more chemical composition into the river and the lake. During the post-monsoon period, the TDS of lake water is still keeping in a high level as in monsoon period, probably resulting from the balance between concentration of ions due to lake water loss and decrease of terrestrial ion input. K+ and Cl- of rainfall may originate from evaporation of lake water and mineral aerosols, and the dissolved carbonates are responsible for the chemical composition of rainfall water.

  6. Hybrid insolation forcing of Pliocene monsoon dynamics in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. R. Kuechler

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pliocene is regarded as a potential analogue for future climate with conditions generally warmer-than-today and higher-than-preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present the first orbitally resolved records of continental hydrology and vegetation changes from West Africa for two Pliocene time intervals (5.0–4.6 Ma, 3.6–3.0 Ma, which we compare with records from the last glacial cycle (Kuechler et al., 2013. Our results indicate that changes in local insolation alone are insufficient to explain the full degree of hydrologic variations. Generally two modes of interacting insolation forcings are observed: during eccentricity maxima, when precession was strong, the West African monsoon was driven by summer insolation; during eccentricity minima, when precession-driven variations in local insolation were minimal, obliquity-driven changes in the summer latitudinal insolation gradient became dominant. This hybrid monsoonal forcing concept explains orbitally controlled tropical climate changes, incorporating the forcing mechanism of latitudinal gradients for the Pliocene, which probably increased in importance during subsequent Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

  7. Decoupled warming and monsoon precipitation in East Asia over the last deglaciation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.; Prins, M.A.; Beets, C.J.; Troelstra, S.R.; Zheng, H.B.; Gu, Z.Y.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    Our understanding of the continental climate development in East Asia is mainly based on loess-paleosol sequences and summer monsoon precipitation reconstructions based on oxygen isotopes (delta O-18) of stalagmites from several Chinese caves. Based on these records, it is thought that East Asian

  8. Numerical simulation on the southern flood and northern drought in summer 2014 over Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lianlian; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Huijun

    2017-12-01

    In summer 2014, Eastern China suffered a typical "southern flood and northern drought" anomalous climate. Observational analyses indicated that the anomalous vertical motion, East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) played important roles in the formation of such precipitation anomaly. Furthermore, using the climate model (IAP-AGCM-4.1) perturbed by simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in global scale and four different regions (North Pacific, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, and Equatorial Pacific), this study investigated the potential contribution of ocean to such "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China in summer 2014. The simulations forced by global-scale SSTAs or North Pacific SSTAs displayed the most similarity to the observed "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China. It was revealed that the global-scale and North Pacific SSTAs influenced the rainfall over Eastern China via modulating the EASM. The related simulations successfully reproduced the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. The experiment driven by Indian Ocean SSTAs could also reproduce the similar precipitation anomaly pattern and suggested that the Indian Ocean exerted pronounced influence on the North Pacific Subtropical High. Additionally, the simulations forced by SSTAs in the North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific successfully reproduced the northern drought but failed to capture the southern flood. The simulations suggested that precipitation anomaly over Eastern China in summer 2014 was a comprehensive effect of global SSTAs and the dominant contribution to the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern came from the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

  9. Contrasting predictability of summer monsoon rainfall ISOs over the northeastern and western Himalayan region: an application of Hurst exponent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sandipan

    2017-09-01

    Due to heterogeneous nonlinear forcing of complex geomorphological features, predictability of monsoon rainfall 10-90-day intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) over the complex terrain of northeastern and western Himalayan region (NEH and WH) remained poorly quantified. Using 72 and 61 number of station observations of monsoon rainfall ISOs of NEH and WH, respectively, this study attempts to investigate variation in the regional scale predictability of monsoon rainfall ISOs with respect to changing geomorphological features and monsoon rainfall characteristics. In view of the bimodal nonlinear dynamical structure of monsoon rainfall ISO, the fractal dynamical Hurst exponent-based predictability indices are estimated as an indicator of predictability for station observations of NEH and WH, and relationships with elevations, slopes, aspects, and average numbers of occurrences of long (short) spell of active (break) phases are investigated. Results show 10-90-day ISOs are anti-persistent throughout the IHR, although, predictability of 10-90-day ISOs is higher over the NEH region than WH. Predictabilities of ISOs are found to decrease with increasing elevation and slope for both NEH and WH regions. Predictabilities of ISOs over both regions are also found to increase linearly as the number of occurrences of monsoon rainfall ISO phases (active/break) increases.

  10. Tropical influence on boreal summer mid-latitude stationary waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douville, Herve [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, Toulouse (France); Bielli, S.; Deque, M.; Tyteca, S.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); Cassou, C. [CNRS-Cerfacs, Toulouse (France); Hall, N.M.J. [CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse (France)

    2011-11-15

    While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model's mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves

  11. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  12. Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Richard C. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom); Turner, Andrew G. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-06-15

    The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development. (orig.)

  13. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H

    2011-01-01

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  14. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H, E-mail: c.ummenhofer@unsw.edu.au [Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  15. The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, B.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

  16. Extraction and prediction of indices for monsoon intraseasonal oscillations: an approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.

    2017-11-01

    An improved index for real-time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is introduced using the recently developed nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA) technique. Using NLSA, a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions are extracted from unfiltered daily rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of the northeastward-propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of LB eigenfunctions. These modes have a number of advantages over MISO modes extracted via extended empirical orthogonal function analysis including higher memory and predictability, stronger amplitude and higher fractional explained variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats, and adjoining Arabian Sea regions, and more realistic representation of the regional heat sources over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Real-time prediction of NLSA-derived MISO indices is demonstrated via extended-range hindcasts based on NCEP Coupled Forecast System version 2 operational output. It is shown that in these hindcasts the NLSA MISO indices remain predictable out to ˜3 weeks.

  17. Isotope fingerprinting of precipitation associated with western disturbances and Indian summer monsoons across the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeelani, Ghulam; Deshpande, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation samples were collected across the Himalayas from Kashmir (western Himalaya) to Assam (eastern Himalaya) to understand the variation of the stable isotopic content (δ ^{18}O and δ D) in precipitation associated with two dominant weather systems of the region: western disturbances (WDs) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Large spatial and temporal variations in isotopic values were noted with δ^{18}O and δ D values ranging from -30.3 to [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] and -228 to [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.], respectively. The d-excess values also exhibit a large range of variation from -30 to [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]. In general, heavier isotopic values are observed in most of the samples in Jammu, whereas lighter values are observed in majority of the samples in Uttarakhand. Precipitation at Jammu seems to have undergone intense evaporation while that from Uttarakhand suggest normal Rayleigh fractionation/distillation of the air mass as it moves from the source region to the precipitation site and/or orographic lifting. The d-excess of rainfall in Kashmir has a distinctly higher median value of [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] compared to other precipitation sites with a median of [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]. Using distinct isotopic signatures, the regions receiving precipitation from two different weather systems have been identified.

  18. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  19. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  20. Performance of Regional Climate Model in Simulating Monsoon Onset Over Indian Subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatla, R.; Mandal, B.; Verma, Shruti; Ghosh, Soumik; Mall, R. K.

    2018-06-01

    The performance of various Convective Parameterization Schemes (CPSs) of Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) for simulation of onset phase of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over Kerala was studied for the period of 2001-2010. The onset date and its associated spatial variation were simulated using RegCM-4.3 four core CPS, namely Kuo, Tiedtke, Emanuel and Grell; and with two mixed convection schemes Mix98 (Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean) and Mix99 (Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean) on the basis of criteria given by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (Pai and Rajeevan in Indian summer monsoon onset: variability and prediction. National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department, 2007). It has been found that out of six CPS, two schemes, namely Tiedtke and Mix99 simulated the onset date properly. The onset phase is characterized with several transition phases of atmosphere. Therefore, to study the thermal response or the effect of different sea surface temperature (SST), namely ERA interim (ERSST) and weekly optimal interpolation (OI_WK SST) on Indian summer monsoon, the role of two different types of SST has been used to investigate the simulated onset date. In addition, spatial atmospheric circulation pattern during onset phase were analyzed using reanalyze dataset of ERA Interim (EIN15) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), respectively, for wind and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) pattern. Among the six convective schemes of RegCM-4.3 model, Tiedtke is in good agreement with actual onset dates and OI_WK SST forcing is better for simulating onset of ISM over Kerala.

  1. Monsoon onset over Kerala and pre monsoon rainfall peak

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.

    and the monsoon onset date over Kerala was found to be 0.72, which was statistically significant. Thus, as is felt that the pre monsoon rainfall estimate from the satellite data can be used for predicting the monsoon onset over Kerala coast. The results...

  2. Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and ... Surface air tempera- ture is one of the factors that influence monsoon variability. The distribution of surface air temper- ature over land and sea determines the locations ..... Asia, north Indian Ocean, northeast Russia and.

  3. Winter and summer monsoon water mass, heat and freshwater transport changes in the Arabian Sea near 8°N

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stramma, Lothar; Brandt, Peter; Schott, Friedrich; Quadfasel, Detlef; Fischer, Jürgen

    The differences in the water mass distributions and transports in the Arabian Sea between the summer monsoon of August 1993 and the winter monsoon of January 1998 are investigated, based on two hydrographic sections along approximately 8°N. At the western end the sections were closed by a northward leg towards the African continent at about 55°E. In the central basin along 8°N the monsoon anomalies of the temperature and density below the surface-mixed layer were dominated by annual Rossby waves propagating westward across the Arabian Sea. In the northwestern part of the basin the annual Rossby waves have much smaller impact, and the density anomalies observed there were mostly associated with the Socotra Gyre. Salinity and oxygen differences along the section reflect local processes such as the spreading of water masses originating in the Bay of Bengal, northward transport of Indian Central Water, or slightly stronger southward spreading of Red Sea Water in August than in January. The anomalous wind conditions of 1997/98 influenced only the upper 50-100 m with warmer surface waters in January 1998, and Bay of Bengal Water covered the surface layer of the section in the eastern Arabian Sea. Estimates of the overturning circulation of the Arabian Sea were carried out despite the fact that many uncertainties are involved. For both cruises a vertical overturning cell of about 4-6 Sv was determined, with inflow below 2500 m and outflow between about 300 and 2500 m. In the upper 300-450 m a seasonally reversing shallow meridional overturning cell appears to exist in which the Ekman transport is balanced by a geostrophic transport. The heat flux across 8°N is dominated by the Ekman transport, yielding about -0.6 PW for August 1993, and 0.24 PW for January 1998. These values are comparable to climatological and model derived heat flux estimates. Freshwater fluxes across 8°N also were computed, yielding northward freshwater fluxes of 0.07 Sv in January 1998 and 0

  4. The Glacial-Interglacial summer monsoon recorded in southwest Sulawesi speleothems: Evidence for sea level thresholds driving tropical monsoon strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Rifai, H.

    2016-12-01

    Southwest Sulawesi lies within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), at the center of atmospheric convection for two of the largest circulation cells on the planet, the meridional Hadley Cell and zonal Indo-Pacific Walker Circulation. Due to the geographic coincidence of these circulation cells, southwest Sulawesi serves as a hotspot for changes in tropical Pacific climate variability and Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) strength over glacial-interglacial (G-I) timescales. The work presented here spans 386 - 127 ky BP, including glacial terminations IV ( 340 ky BP) and both phases of TIII (TIII 248 ky BP and TIIIa 217 ky BP). This record, along with previous work from southwest Sulawesi spanning the last 40 kyr, reveals coherent climatic features over three complete G-I cycles. The multi-stalagmite Sulawesi speleothem δ18O record demonstrates that on G-I timescales, the strength of the AISM is most sensitive to changes in sea level and its impact on the regional distribution of land and shallow ocean. Stalagmite δ18O and trace element (Mg/Ca) data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. TIV, TIII, TIIIa, and TI are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O that coincides with sea level rise and flooding of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Strong evidence for a sea level (flooding/exposure) threshold is found throughout the southwest Sulawesi record. This is most clearly demonstrated over the period 230 - 212 ky BP (MIS 7d-7c), when a sea level fall to only -80 to -60 m for 10 kyr results in a weakened AISM and glacial conditions, followed by a full termination. Taken together, both glaciations and glacial terminations imply a sea level threshold driving the AISM between two primary levels of intensity (`interglacial' & `glacial'). These massive, sea-level driven shifts in AISM strength are superimposed on precession-scale variability associated with boreal fall insolation at the equator, indicating

  5. Effects of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherchi, Annalisa; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-07-15

    Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO{sub 2} forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarily proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16 x CO{sub 2} experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO{sub 2} sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions (''precipitation-wind paradox''). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales. (orig.)

  6. Atmospheric pollution over the eastern Mediterranean during summer - a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayan, Uri; Ricaud, Philippe; Zbinden, Régina; Dulac, François

    2017-11-01

    The eastern Mediterranean (EM) is one of the regions in the world where elevated concentrations of primary and secondary gaseous air pollutants have been reported frequently, mainly in summer. This review discusses published studies of the atmospheric dispersion and transport conditions characterizing this region during the summer, followed by a description of some essential studies dealing with the corresponding concentrations of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen, methane, and sulfate aerosols observed there. The interlaced relationship between the downward motion of the subsiding air aloft induced by global circulation systems affecting the EM and the depth of the Persian Trough, a low-pressure trough that extends from the Asian monsoon at the surface controlling the spatiotemporal distribution of the mixed boundary layer during summer, is discussed. The strength of the wind flow within the mixed layer and its depth affect much the amount of pollutants transported and determine the potential of the atmosphere to disperse contaminants off their origins in the EM. The reduced mixed layer and the accompanying weak westerlies, characterizing the summer in this region, led to reduced ventilation rates, preventing an effective dilution of the contaminants. Several studies pointing at specific local (e.g., ventilation rates) and regional peculiarities (long-range transport) enhancing the build-up of air pollutant concentrations are presented. Tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations observed in the summer over the EM are among the highest over the Northern Hemisphere. The three essential processes controlling its formation (i.e., long-range transport of polluted air masses, dynamic subsidence at mid-tropospheric levels, and stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange) are reviewed. Airborne campaigns and satellite-borne initiatives have indicated that the concentration values of reactive nitrogen identified as precursors in the formation of O

  7. Sensible climates in monsoon Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, H S; Kawamura, T

    1991-06-01

    This study identifies characteristics of the geographical distribution of sensible climates and their diurnal and annual variations, and presents a classification of bioclimates in monsoon Asia by using Kawamura's discomfort index formula. During the hottest month, tropical areas and areas in central and South China are uncomfortable for humans throughout the day and night, and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during the daytime. Tropical zones are uncomfortable all year long and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during summer. Four climatic types were distinguished in monsoon Asia. Climatic type I, hyperthermal throughout the year, occurs in the tropics south of latitude 20 degrees N. Climatic type II, hyperthermal in the hottest month and comfortable in the coldest month, extends over latitudes from 20 degrees to 30 degrees N except in the highlands. Climatic type III, hyperthermal in the hottest month and hypothermal in the coldest month, encompasses temperate zones of East Asia and subtropical arid areas of northwestern India. Climatic type V, comfortable in the hottest month and hypothermal in coldest month, occurs near the southeast coast of the Soviet Union and in the highlands of the Himalayas.

  8. Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

    2016-06-01

    Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a

  9. Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

    2018-05-01

    Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

  10. 20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hannachi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Asian summer monsoon is a high-dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40 sea-level pressure (SLP anomalies on the seasonal cycle, over the region 50–145° E, 20° S–35° N, to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies, the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet. However during the break phase, the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.

  11. Riverine CO2 supersaturation and outgassing in a subtropical monsoonal mountainous area (Three Gorges Reservoir Region) of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Siyue; Ni, Maofei; Mao, Rong; Bush, Richard T.

    2018-03-01

    Rivers are an important source of CO2 to the atmosphere, however, mountainous rivers and streams with high emission rates are not well studied particularly in China. We report the first detailed investigation on monsoonal mountainous rivers in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region, with a focus on the riverine CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), CO2 degassing and their potential controls. The pCO2 levels ranged from 50 to 6019 μatm with averages of 1573 (SD. ±1060) in dry Autumn and 1276 (SD. ±1166) μatm in wet Summer seasons. 94% of samples were supersaturated with CO2 with respect to the atmospheric equilibrium (410 μatm). Monsoonal precipitation controlled pCO2 seasonality, with both the maximal and minimal levels occurring in the wet season, and showing the overall effects of dilution. Riverine pCO2 could be predicted better in the dry season using pH, DO% and DTP, whereas pH and DOC were better predictors in the wet season. We conclude that in-situ respiration of allochthonous organic carbon, rather than photosynthesis, resulted in negative relationships between pCO2 and DO and pH, and thus CO2 supersaturation. Photosynthetic primary production was effectively limited by rapid flow velocity and short residence time. The estimated water-to-air CO2 emission rate in the TGR rivers was 350 ± 319 in the Autumn and lower, yet more variable at 326 ± 439 mmol/m2/d in Summer. Our calculated CO2 areal fluxes were in the upper-level magnitude of published data, demonstrating the importance of mountainous rivers and streams as a global greenhouse gas source, and urgency for more detailed studies on CO2 degassing, to address a global data gap for these environments.

  12. Influence of eastern Arabian Sea on summer monsoon rainfall over west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.S.; Rao, M.V.

    and distant nature. In order to realise the model results and the influence of Arabian sea in the context of long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall, we have examined the correlation between the rainfall over west coast of India and premonsoon thermal...

  13. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ~54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river run off proxies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E.C.; Sijinkumar, A.V.; Nath, B.N.; Nurnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    ; Viswambharan and Mohanakumar, 2014). Decadal to centennial scale variations in monsoon precipitation have been in phase with temperature fluctuations in northern high latitudes(Fleitmann et al., 2003). Monsoonal changes on millennial to longer time...

  14. Speleothem records of changes in the South American Summer Monsoon during MIS stages 5 and 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, S. J.; Kanner, L.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R.

    2011-12-01

    Little information exists about the behavior of the South American Summer Monsoon prior to the Last Glacial Period. Speleothems from the Peruvian Altiplano are one possible archive of SASM intensity because oxygen isotopes of rainfall on the Altiplano are primarily controlled by the intensity of rainfall in upstream moisture source region, the Amazon Basin. Here, we present results from a two speleothems collected from Gruta de Huagapo, a cave in the central Peruvian Altiplano (12°S, 76°W, ~3800m elevation). The samples grew from approximately 115-125 ky BP and from 136-168 ky BP, spanning time periods equivalent to much of MIS stage 5e and the transition into MIS 5d and MIS 6. Chronologies were determined by U-Th dating techniques and the dates are in stratigraphic with analytical errors Titicaca (Fritz et al, 2007). At present we have isotopic data from only the youngest 10 ky of the older sample. The values are generally more depleted, with most between -16% and -17%, suggesting an intensified SASM during MIS 6 as compared to 5e. A rapid increase in δ18O occurs at ~136 ky BP. Overall the trends in the data parallel major changes in δD from EPICA, but appear to lead the Antarctic time series by ~2 ky.

  15. Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

    2016-12-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

  16. A Centennial Episode of Weak East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Midst of the Medieval Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, C.; Liu, J.; Wang, B.; Wang, Z.; Yan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recent paleo-proxy evidences suggested that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was generally strong (i.e., northern China wet and southern China dry) during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 9th to the mid-13th century), however, there was a centennial period (around 11th century) during which the EASM was weak. This study aims to explore the causes of this centennial weak EASM episode and in general, what controls the centennial variability of the EASM in the pre-industrial period of AD 501-1850. With the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a suit of control and forced experiments were conducted for the past 2000 years. The model run with all external forcings simulates a warm period of EA from AD 801-1250 with a generally increased summer mean precipitation over the northern EA; however, during the 11th century (roughly from AD 980 to AD 1100), the EASM is significantly weaker than the other periods during the MWP. We find that on the multi-decadal to centennial time scale, a strong EASM is associated with a La Nina-like Indo-Pacific warming and the opposite is also true. This sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern represents the leading EOF mode of centennial SST variations, and it is primarily forced by the solar radiation and volcanic activity, whereas the land use/land cover and greenhouse gases as well as internal dynamics play a negligible role. During the MWP, the solar forcing plays a dominate role in supporting the SST variation as the volcanic activity is weak. The weakening of the EASM during the AD 980-1100 is attributed to the relatively low solar radiation, which leads to a prevailing El Nino-like Indo-Pacific cooling with strongest cooling occurring in the equatorial western Pacific. The suppressed convection over the equatorial western Pacific directly induces a Philippine Sea anticyclone anomaly, which increases southern China precipitation, meanwhile suppresses Philippine Sea precipitation, exciting a meridional teleconnection that

  17. Indian Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems Feed Up-and-Over Moisture Transport to the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenhao; Lin, Yanluan; Wright, Jonathon S.; Xie, Yuanyu; Xu, Fanghua; Xu, Wenqing; Wang, Yan

    2017-11-01

    As an integral part of the South Asian summer monsoon system, monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) bring large amounts of precipitation to agrarian north and central India during their passage across the subcontinent. In this study, we investigate the role of LPSs in supplying moisture from north and central India to the southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) and quantify the contribution of these systems to summer rainfall over the SWTP. The results show that more than 60% of total summer rainfall over the SWTP is related to LPS occurrence. LPSs are associated with a 15% rise in average daily rainfall and a 10% rise in rainy days over the SWTP. This relationship is maintained primarily through up-and-over transport, in which convectively lifted moisture over the Indian subcontinent is swept over the SWTP by southwesterly winds in the middle troposphere. LPSs play two roles in supplying up-and-over moisture transport. First, these systems elevate large amounts of water vapor and condensed water to the midtroposphere. Second, the circulations associated with LPSs interact with the background westerlies to induce southwesterly flow in the midtroposphere, transporting elevated moisture and condensate over the Himalayan Mountains. Our findings indicate that LPSs are influential in extending the northern boundary of the South Asian monsoon system across the Himalayas into the interior of the SWTP. The strength of this connection depends on both LPS characteristics and the configuration of the midtropospheric circulation, particularly the prevailing westerlies upstream of the SWTP.

  18. Ice versus liquid water saturation in simulations of the indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glazer, Russell H.; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2018-02-01

    At the same temperature, below 0 °C, the saturation vapor pressure (SVP) over ice is slightly less than the SVP over liquid water. Numerical models use the Clausius-Clapeyron relation to calculate the SVP and relative humidity, but there is not a consistent method for the treatment of saturation above the freezing level where ice and mixed-phase clouds may be present. In the context of current challenges presented by cloud microphysics in climate models, we argue that a better understanding of the impact that this treatment has on saturation-related processes like cloud formation and precipitation, is needed. This study explores the importance of the SVP calculation through model simulations of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the regional spectral model (RSM) at 15 km grid spacing. A combination of seasonal and multiyear simulations is conducted with two saturation parameterizations. In one, the SVP over liquid water is prescribed through the entire atmospheric column (woIce), and in another the SVP over ice is used above the freezing level (wIce). When SVP over ice is prescribed, a thermodynamic drying of the middle and upper troposphere above the freezing level occurs due to increased condensation. In the wIce runs, the model responds to the slight decrease in the saturation condition by increasing, relative to the SVP over liquid water only run, grid-scale condensation of water. Increased grid-scale mean seasonal precipitation is noted across the ISM region in the simulation with SVP over ice prescribed. Modification of the middle and upper troposphere moisture results in a decrease in mean seasonal mid-level cloud amount and an increase in high cloud amount when SVP over ice is prescribed. Multiyear simulations strongly corroborate the qualitative results found in the seasonal simulations regarding the impact of ice versus liquid water SVP on the ISM's mean precipitation and moisture field. The mean seasonal rainfall difference over All India between w

  19. Soil moisture variations in remotely sensed and reanalysis datasets during weak monsoon conditions over central India and central Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-07-01

    Variation of soil moisture during active and weak phases of summer monsoon JJAS (June, July, August, and September) is very important for sustenance of the crop and subsequent crop yield. As in situ observations of soil moisture are few or not available, researchers use data derived from remote sensing satellites or global reanalysis. This study documents the intercomparison of soil moisture from remotely sensed and reanalyses during dry spells within monsoon seasons in central India and central Myanmar. Soil moisture data from the European Space Agency (ESA)—Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has been treated as observed data and was compared against soil moisture data from the ECMWF reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) and the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for the period of 2002-2011. The ESA soil moisture correlates rather well with observed gridded rainfall. The ESA data indicates that soil moisture increases over India from west to east and from north to south during monsoon season. The ERA-I overestimates the soil moisture over India, while the CFSR soil moisture agrees well with the remotely sensed observation (ESA). Over Myanmar, both the reanalysis overestimate soil moisture values and the ERA-I soil moisture does not show much variability from year to year. Day-to-day variations of soil moisture in central India and central Myanmar during weak monsoon conditions indicate that, because of the rainfall deficiency, the observed (ESA) and the CFSR soil moisture values are reduced up to 0.1 m3/m3 compared to climatological values of more than 0.35 m3/m3. This reduction is not seen in the ERA-I data. Therefore, soil moisture from the CFSR is closer to the ESA observed soil moisture than that from the ERA-I during weak phases of monsoon in the study region.

  20. Paleoclimate and Asian monsoon variability inferred from n-alkanes and their stable isotopes at lake Donggi Cona, NE Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Jeetendra; Guenther, Franziska; Mäusbacher, Roland; Gleixner, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensive and sensitive region of elevated topography affecting global climate. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies greatly influences the lake systems at the Tibetan Plateau. Despite a considerable number of research efforts in last decade, possible environmental reactions to change in monsoon dynamics are still not well understood. Here we present results from a sediment core of lake Donggi Cona, which dates back to late glacial period. Distinct organic geochemical proxies and stable isotopes are used to study the paleoenvironmental and hydrological changes in late glacial and Holocene period. Sedimentary n-alkanes of lake Donggi Cona are used as a proxy for paleoclimatic and monsoonal reconstruction. The hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes of n-alkanes are used as proxy for hydrological and phytoplankton productivity, respectively . Qualitative and quantitative analysis were performed for n-alkanes over the sediment core. δD proxy for sedimentary n-alkanes is used to infer lake water and rainfall signal. δD of (n-alkane C23) records the signal of the lake water, whereas δD of (n-alkane C29) record the precipitation signal, hence act as an appropriate proxy to track Asian monsoon. Long chain n-alkanes dominate over the sediment core while unsaturated mid chain n-alkenes have high abundance in some samples. From 18.4-13.8 cal ka BP, sample shows low organic productivity due to cold and arid climate. After 13.8-11.8 cal ka BP, slight increase in phytoplankton productivity indicate onset of weaker monsoon. From 11.8-6.8 cal ka BP, high content of organic matter indicates rise in productivity and strong monsoon with high inflow. After 6.8 cal ka BP, decrease in phytoplankton productivity indicating cooler climate and show terrestrial signal. Our results provide new insight into the variability of east Asian monsoon and changes in phytoplankton productivity for last 18.4 ka. Keywords: n

  1. Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

    2018-03-01

    Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo

  2. Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Monsoon Depression in South China: Structure Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Jianying; JIANG Jixi; BU Yalin; LIU Nianqing

    2008-01-01

    A heavy rainfall associated with the deepening of a monsoon depression happened in the summer of 2005.This process was first diagnostically analyzed and the 3D structure of the monsoon depression was discussed,then this structure was compared with those of the monsoon depression in South Asia and the low vortex in the Meiyu front. The results showed that the heavy rainfall directly resulted from a monsoon depression in South China, and the large-scale environment provided a favorable background for the deepening of the monsoon depression. The 3D structure of the monsoon depression was as follows. In the horizontal direction,there existed a convective cloud band to the south of the monsoon depression, which lay in a convectively instable area, with a relatively strong ascending motion in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, and the ascending motion matched well with a moist tongue, a convergence area, and a band of positive vorticity in the mid and low levels of the troposphere. In the vertical direction, the depression had an obviously cyclonic circulation in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, but no circulation from above 300 hPa. The monsoon depression corresponded to convergence and positive vorticity in the low levels, but to divergence and negative vortieity in the upper levels. The upward draft of the depression could reach the upper levels of the troposphere in the west of the depression, while the descending motion lay in the east. There was a low-level jet to the south of the depression, while the upper-level jet was not obvious. The depression was vertically warm in the upper levels and cold in the low levels, and the axis of the depression tilted southeastward with height, whose characteristics were different not only from the monsoon depression in South Asia but also from the low vortex in the Meiyu front.

  3. Driving forces of Indian summer monsoon on Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales: A review

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    A scientific consensus exists that tectonic evolution of Himalaya is the main cause of monsoon initiation and evolution in southeast Asia. Several forcing factors such as tectonic, solar insolation, latent heat transport, albedo of the earth surface...

  4. Annual monsoon rains recorded by Jurassic dunes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, D B; Rowe, C M; Joeckel, R M

    2001-07-05

    Pangaea, the largest landmass in the Earth's history, was nearly bisected by the Equator during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic eras. Modelling experiments and stratigraphic studies have suggested that the supercontinent generated a monsoonal atmospheric circulation that led to extreme seasonality, but direct evidence for annual rainfall periodicity has been lacking. In the Mesozoic era, about 190 million years ago, thick deposits of wind-blown sand accumulated in dunes of a vast, low-latitude desert at Pangaea's western margin. These deposits are now situated in the southwestern USA. Here we analyse slump masses in the annual depositional cycles within these deposits, which have been described for some outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone. Twenty-four slumps, which were generated by heavy rainfall, appear within one interval representing 36 years of dune migration. We interpret the positions of 20 of these masses to indicate slumping during summer monsoon rains, with the other four having been the result of winter storms. The slumped lee faces of these Jurassic dunes therefore represent a prehistoric record of yearly rain events.

  5. Contrasting sedimentation patterns in two semi-enclosed mesotidal bays along the west and south coasts of Korea controlled by their orientation to the regional monsoon climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seok Hwi; Chun, Seung Soo; Chang, Tae Soo; Jang, Dae Geon

    2017-08-01

    Sedimentation patterns of tidal flats along the Korean west coast have long been known to be largely controlled by the monsoon climate. On the other hand, much less is known about the effect of the monsoon on sedimentation in coastal embayments with mouths of different geographic orientations. Good examples are Hampyeong and Yeoja bays along the west and south coasts, respectively. Both have narrow entrances, but their mouths open toward the northwest and the south, respectively. With mean tidal ranges of 3.46 and 3.2 m, respectively, the two bays experience similar tidal regimes and are hence excellent candidates to compare the effect of different exposure to the same regional monsoon climate on their respective sediment distribution patterns. The winter monsoon, in particular, is characterized by strong northwesterly winds that directly impact the west coast, but blow offshore along the south coast. For the purpose of this study, surficial sediment samples were collected from intertidal and subtidal flats of the two bays, both in summer and winter. Grain-size analyses were carried out by sieving (sand fraction) and Sedigraph (mud fraction). In the case of Yeoja Bay, the sediments consist mostly of mud (mean grain sizes of 5.4 to 8.8 phi). Seasonal changes are very subtle, the sediments being slightly coarser in summer when silt-dominated sediments are supplied by two streams to the northern parts of the bay in response to heavy rainfall. With the exception of the deeper tidal channels, Yeoja Bay is characterized by a thick mud blanket the year round, which is modulated by processes associated with the summer monsoon that predominantly blows from the east. Textural parameters suggest severely restricted sediment mixing on the subtidal and intertidal flats, the overall low energy situation preventing sands from reaching the tidal flats. The sediments of Hampyeong Bay, by contrast, are characterized by a distinct shoreward fining trend. Mean grain sizes average

  6. Effect of increasing greenhouse gases on Indian monsoon rainfall as downscaled from the ECHAM coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, S.V.; Storch, H.V.

    1994-01-01

    It is more or less accepted that the increasing anthropogenic gases will result in global warming through the greenhouse effect. The major influence of this will be felt in the form of ice melts and rising sea levels. The influence on regional climates like monsoons is not very clear. Since the monsoons arise due to surface heating, one would expect that global warming will lead to more vigorous monsoons. The expected change in a climate parameter can be studied by analyzing the historical data and then extrapolating in time. Alternatively, one can use the state-of-the-art coupled GCMs which are able to simulate the earth's climate with reasonable accuracy. Both methods have some limitations. The first method cannot adequately consider the nonlinearity, and the second method may not be efficient for regional scales. So that the projections can be trusted, the regional features should be well simulated. None of the current models are able to simulate the Indian monsoon satisfactorily. Therefore it is desirable to infer the expected change in monsoons from other large and near global scale features which are better simulated. This approach, which depends on the concurrent association between a large-scale modeled feature and a regional scale, is known as downscaling, after Storch et al., and is adopted here to project the Indian monsoon rainfall for the next 100 years from the ECHAM T21 coupled model

  7. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The word 'monsoon' is derived from the Arabic word 'mausam' for season and the distinguishing attribute of ... lance, the word monsoon is used for the rainfall in the rainy season. In this article, I discuss the ..... [1] C S Ramage, Monsoon meteorology, International Geophysics Series,. Academic Press, San Diego, California ...

  8. Atmospheric pollution over the eastern Mediterranean during summer – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Dayan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The eastern Mediterranean (EM is one of the regions in the world where elevated concentrations of primary and secondary gaseous air pollutants have been reported frequently, mainly in summer. This review discusses published studies of the atmospheric dispersion and transport conditions characterizing this region during the summer, followed by a description of some essential studies dealing with the corresponding concentrations of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, total reactive nitrogen, methane, and sulfate aerosols observed there. The interlaced relationship between the downward motion of the subsiding air aloft induced by global circulation systems affecting the EM and the depth of the Persian Trough, a low-pressure trough that extends from the Asian monsoon at the surface controlling the spatiotemporal distribution of the mixed boundary layer during summer, is discussed. The strength of the wind flow within the mixed layer and its depth affect much the amount of pollutants transported and determine the potential of the atmosphere to disperse contaminants off their origins in the EM. The reduced mixed layer and the accompanying weak westerlies, characterizing the summer in this region, led to reduced ventilation rates, preventing an effective dilution of the contaminants. Several studies pointing at specific local (e.g., ventilation rates and regional peculiarities (long-range transport enhancing the build-up of air pollutant concentrations are presented. Tropospheric ozone (O3 concentrations observed in the summer over the EM are among the highest over the Northern Hemisphere. The three essential processes controlling its formation (i.e., long-range transport of polluted air masses, dynamic subsidence at mid-tropospheric levels, and stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange are reviewed. Airborne campaigns and satellite-borne initiatives have indicated that the concentration values of reactive nitrogen identified as precursors in

  9. Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Preceding the El Niño Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Zhang, R.; Bourassa, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Composite analysis from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets over the period 1948-2007 indicates that stronger East Asian winter monsoons (EAWM) and stronger Australian summer monsoons (ASM) generally co-exist in boreal winters preceding the onset of El Niño, although the EAWM tend to be weak after 1990, probably because of the decadal shift of EAWM and the change in El Niño events from cold-tongue type to warm-pool type. The anomalous EAWM and ASM enhance surface westerlies over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTP). It is proposed that the enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP prior to El Niño onset are generally associated with the concurrent anomalous EAWM and ASM. A simple analytical atmospheric model is constructed to test the hypothesis that the emergence of enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP can be linked to concurrent EAWM and ASM anomalies. Model results indicate that when anomalous northerlies from the EAWM converge with anomalous southerlies from the ASM, westerly anomalies over the WTP are enhanced. This result provides a possible explanation of the co-impact of the EAWM and the ASM on the onset of El Niño through enhancing the surface westerly over the WTP.

  10. Variability of wind stress and currents at selected locations over the north Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.V.

    Intra-seasonal variability of wind stress, wind stress curl and currents at different locations over the northern Indian Ocean during two contrasting monsoon seasons has been investigated making use of the time series data collected during MONSOON...

  11. Geochemical provenance of sediments from the northern East China Sea document a gradual migration of the Asian Monsoon belt over the past 400,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beny, François; Toucanne, Samuel; Skonieczny, Charlotte; Bayon, Germain; Ziegler, Martin

    2018-06-01

    The reconstruction of the long-term evolution of the East Asian Monsoon remains controversial. In this study, we aim to give a new outlook on this evolution by studying a 400 kyr long sediment record (U1429) from the northern East China Sea recovered during IODP Expedition 346. Neodymium isotopic ratios and rare earth element concentrations of different grain-size fractions reveal significant provenance changes of the sediments in the East China Sea between East Asian continental sources (mainly Yellow River) and sediment contributions from the Japanese Archipelago. These provenance changes are interpreted as the direct impact of sea level changes, due to the reorganization of East Asian river mouth locations and ocean circulation on the East China Sea shelf, and latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) from the interior of Asia to the western North Pacific Ocean. Our data reveal the dominance of winter and summer monsoons during glacial and interglacial periods, respectively, except for glacial MIS 6d (∼150-180 ka) during which unexpected summer monsoon dominated conditions prevailed. Finally, our data suggests a possible strengthening of the interglacial summer monsoon rainfalls over the East Asian continent and Japan throughout the past 400 kyr, and between MIS 11 and MIS 5 in particular. This could result from a gradual northward migration of the ITCZ.

  12. Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fangxing; Dong, Buwen; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2018-02-01

    Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.

  13. Spatial variations of DMS, DMSP and phytoplankton in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, D M; Paul, Jane T; Gauns, Mangesh; Ramaiah, N; Kumar, M Dileep

    2006-08-01

    Data on the distribution of dimethylsulphide (DMS) and dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) in relation to phytoplankton abundance in different oceanic environments is important to understand the biogeochemistry of DMS, which plays an important role in the radiation balance of the earth. During the summer monsoon of 2001 measurements were made for DMS and DMSPt (total DMSP) together with related biological parameters in the Bay of Bengal. Both DMS and DMSPt were restricted to the upper 40 m of the water column. Diatoms accounted for more than 95% of the phytoplankton and were the major contributors to the DMS and DMSPt pool. The mean concentration of DMS in the upper 40 m was observed to be around 1.8+/-1.9 nM in the study area, while DMSPt concentrations varied between 0.7 nM and 40.2 nM with a mean of 10.4+/-8.2 nM. The observed lower DMSPt in the northern Bay in spite of higher mean primary productivity, chlorophyll a and phytoplankton cell counts seemed to result from grazing. Though salinity divides the Bay into different biogeochemical provinces there is no relation between salinity and DMS or DMSPt. On the other hand DMS was linearly related to chlorophyll a:phaeopigments ratio. The results suggest the need for deeper insight into the role of diatoms in the biogeochemical cycling of DMS.

  14. Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael

    2018-01-01

    A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

  15. Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

    2018-03-01

    In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

  16. Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial variation in spring snow melt on summer soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, G. P.; Papuga, S. A.; Wright, C. L.; Nelson, K.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.

    2010-12-01

    While soil respiration - the flux of carbon dioxide from the soil surface to the atmosphere - is the second largest terrestrial carbon flux, it is the least well constrained component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This is in part because of its high variability in space and time that can become amplified under certain environmental conditions. Under current climate change scenarios, both summer and winter precipitation are expected to be altered in terrestrial ecosystems of the southwestern US. Precipitation magnitude and intensity influence soil moisture, which is a key control on ecosystem-scale respiration rates. Therefore understanding how changes in snow and rainfall translate to changes in soil moisture is critical to understanding climate change impacts on soil respiration processes. Our study took place within the footprint of a semiarid mixed-conifer flux measurement system on Mount Bigelow just north of Tucson, AZ. We analyzed images from three understory phenology cameras (pheno-cams) to identify areas that represented early and late snowmelt. Within the field of view of each of the three pheno-cams we established three early-melt and three late-melt soil respiration measurement “sites”. To understand the persistence of snowmelt conditions on summer soil respiration, we measured soil respiration, soil moisture, and soil temperature at all six sites on four days representing different summer periods (i.e. pre-monsoon, early monsoon, mid-monsoon, and late monsoon). Throughout the entire study period, at both early- and late-melt sites soil respiration was strongly correlated with amount of soil moisture, and was less responsive to temperature. Soil respiration generally increased throughout the rainy season, peaking by mid-monsoon at both early- and late-melt sites. Interestingly, early-melt sites were wetter than late-melt sites following rainfall occurring in the pre- and early monsoon. However, following rainfall occurring in the mid- to late

  17. An oxygen isotope record from Lake Xiarinur in Inner Mongolia since the last deglaciation and its implication for tropical monsoon change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qing; Chu, Guoqiang; Xie, Manman; Zhu, Qingzeng; Su, Youliang; Wang, Xisheng

    2018-04-01

    We present a high-resolution oxygen isotope record from authigenic carbonate (δ18Ocarb) from Lake Xiarinur (Inner Mongolia) since the last deglaciation. The lake is located at the modern northern limit of the monsoon, and is therefore sensitive to the extension of the East Asian summer monsoon. Based on calibration against the instrumental record, the δ18Ocar variation has been interpreted as changes in atmospheric circulation pattern on decadal time scales. On longer time scales, the δ18Ocarb in lake sediments could be mainly regulated by the relative contribution of nearby (remote) water-vapor sources associated with subtropical (tropical) monsoon through changes in the distance from sources to the site of precipitation. Increased remote water vapors from tropical monsoon would lead to lighter isotope value in our study site. Through time the δ18Ocarb record in Lake Xiarinur indicate a notable weak tropical monsoon during the Younger Dryas, a gradual increasing monsoon from the early Holocene and weakening monsoon after the middle Holocene. Oxygen isotope records from lakes and stalagmite in the Asian monsoon region across different localities show a general similar temporal pattern since the last deglaciation, and highlight a fundamental role of the tropical monsoon.

  18. Distributional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen indicating the pathways of Indian monsoon through Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Yong Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The distribution pattern of vegetation on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is fundamentally influenced by the plateau climate, which is mainly controlled by Indian monsoon during summer. The long distance transportation of pollen (mostly anemophilous taxa produced by trees on the plateau has been recorded by modern pollen samples in previous studies, and hypothesized to be a good indicator of monsoon dynamics. Here we use 270 surface pollen samples from Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau to test the distribution patterns of the anemophilous tree pollen. Meanwhile factors related to Indian monsoon affecting pollen transportation are simulated and analyzed. Results show that depositional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen, especially Abies, Pinus, Quercus and Betula are completely controlled by the pathways of Indian monsoon. This is reflected by climatic indicators of the atmospheric pressure pattern over June–July–August, by the precipitation pattern over June–July–August and by the topographic feature of the plateau. The spatial interpolation of thin plate spline results also display two depositional centers (ca. 30°N, 95°E and 30°N, 105°E of the anemophilous tree pollen. In contrast to previous conclusion that pollen distributional pattern is determined by mean annual precipitation, we argue that Indian monsoon is the essential controller because of the synchronization between timing of monsoon wind and timing of plants flowering. Our finding strongly suggests that distributional pattern of anemophilous tree pollen on the plateau is a good proxy of Indian monsoon.

  19. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will

  20. Recent Progresses in Impacts of Indo-Western Pacific Ocean on East Asian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianping

    2016-04-01

    Some progresses in impacts of Western Pacific Ocean (WPO) on East Asian monsoon and stratosphere climate are reviewed from the following aspects. (1) Impact of the IPOD (a cross-basin dipole pattern of SSTA variability between the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) and North Pacific Ocean) on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM).The IPOD exhibits a considerable correlation with the EASM. In summers with a positive IPOD phase, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) weakens and shrinks with WPSH ridge moving northwards, which favours an intensified EASM and a decrease in summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, and vice versa. (2) TheIndo-Western Pacific convection oscillation (IPCO),which is an out-of-phase fluctuation in convection anomalies between the north Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific region,is closely related to the EASM.Negative IPCO phases, which exhibit an enhanced convection over the north Indian Ocean and a suppressed convection over the western North Pacific, favor a weakened EASM and an increase of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley with the joint actions of the stronger than normal Ural and Okhotsk blocking highs and the subtropical western Pacific high, and vice versa.(3) Asymmetric influence of the two types of ENSO on summer rainfall in China. The two types of ENSO have asymmetric impacts on summer rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. The relation between summer rainfall over this valley and the cold tongue (CT) El Niño is significantly positive, while the relation with the CT La Niña is not significant. The negative phase of the warm pool (WP) ENSO has a significant positive influence, whereas no significant relation with the positive phase. They indicated that this asymmetric response of the EASM is likely to be linked to the different spatial patterns of the two types of ENSO.(4) Linkage between recent winter precipitation increase in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley (MLY) since the late 1970s andwarming in the

  1. Summer monsoon onset-induced changes of autotrophic pico- and nanoplankton in the largest monsoonal estuary along the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mohan, A.P.; Jyothibabu, R; Jagadeesan, L.; Lallu, K.R; Karnan, C.

    to the microbial food web of the northwestern Indian Ocean.Deep sea research part II. 40: 773–782. Callieri, C., E. Amicucci, R. Bertoni, and L. Voros. 1996. Fluorometric characterization of two picocyanobacteria strains from different underwater light quality.... 2014. Waning of plankton food web in the upstream region of the Cochin backwaters during the Southwest Monsoon. Indian Journal of Marine Sciences (In Press). Jyothibabu, R., N. V. Madhu, L. Jagadeesan, A. Anjusha, A. P. Mohan , N.Ullas, N. Sudheesh...

  2. The Preboreal-like Asian monsoon climate in the early last interglacial period recorded from the Dark Cave, Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiuyang; He, Yaoqi; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sun, Xiaoshuang; Hong, Hui; Liu, Juan; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Li, Zhizhong; Shen, Chuan-Chou

    2017-08-01

    Transitions of glacial-interglacial cycles are critical periods for Quaternary climate shifts. Here, we present new, decadal resolution Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record from three stalagmites obtained from the Dark Cave in southwestern China over 130-114 thousand years ago (ka, before CE 1950). Chronology was anchored by 28 230Th dates with typical uncertainties of ±0.3-1.0 kyr, allowing an assessment of timing and transition of climate changes during the onset and end of the last interglacial. An agreement between this new and previous stalagmite δ18O records supports that summer insolation predominates orbital-scale ASM evolution. A 2-3 kyr-long gradually increasing ASM period, analogous to the classical Preboreal episode in the early Holocene, follows the termination of a weak monsoon interval at 129.0 ± 0.8 ka. This finding suggests a strong influence of high-latitude ice-sheet dynamics on Asian monsoonal conditions during the early interglacial period. An abrupt end of the marine isotope stage 5e at 118.8 ± 0.6 ka was probably caused by the internal climate system threshold effects.

  3. Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

    2009-12-01

    A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

  4. Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

  5. The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

    2017-10-01

    In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

  6. Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

    2016-02-01

    Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

  7. A comprehensive overview of the climatological composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone based on 10 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santee, M. L.; Manney, G. L.; Livesey, N. J.; Schwartz, M. J.; Neu, J. L.; Read, W. G.

    2017-05-01

    Intense deep convection associated with the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) lofts surface pollutants to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), where strong winds and long chemical lifetimes allow intercontinental transport, affecting atmospheric composition around the globe. The Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched in 2004, makes simultaneous colocated measurements of trace gases and cloud ice water content (a proxy for deep convection) in the UTLS on a daily basis. Here we exploit the dense spatial and temporal coverage, long-term data record, extensive measurement suite, and insensitivity to aerosol and most clouds of Aura MLS to characterize the climatological (2005-2014) composition of the ASM anticyclone throughout its annual life cycle. We use version 4 MLS data to quantify spatial and temporal variations in both tropospheric (H2O, CO, CH3Cl, CH3CN, CH3OH) and stratospheric (O3, HNO3, HCl) tracers on four potential temperature surfaces (350-410 K). Inside the mature anticyclone, all species exhibit substantial changes, not only from their premonsoon distributions in the ASM region but also from their summertime distributions in the rest of the hemisphere. Different tracers exhibit dissimilar seasonal evolution, and the exact location and timing of their extreme values vary. Although individual aspects of the anticyclone have been described previously, we present a uniquely comprehensive overview of the climatological seasonal evolution of the ASM and its impact on UTLS composition. This work provides valuable context for planned in situ measurements as well as a benchmark for model evaluation and future investigations of interannual variability and long-term changes in monsoon processes.

  8. On the response of Indian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanap, S. D.; Pandithurai, G.; Manoj, M. G.

    2015-11-01

    The Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), which hosts 1/7th of the world population, has undergone significant anomalous changes in hydrological cycle in recent decades. In present study, the role of aerosols in the precipitation changes over IGP region is investigated using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-5 (CMIP5) experiments with adequate representation of aerosols in state-of-the art climate models. The climatological sea surface temperature experiments are used to explore the relative impact of the aerosols. The diagnostic analysis on representation of aerosols and precipitation over Indian region was investigated in CMIP5 models. After the evaluation, multi-model ensemble was used for further analysis. It is revealed from the analysis that aerosol-forcing plays an important role in observed weakening of the monsoon circulation and decreased precipitation over the IGP region. The significant cooling of the continental Indian region (mainly IGP) caused by the aerosols leads to reduction in land sea temperature contrast, which further leads to weakening of monsoon overturning circulation and reduction in precipitation.

  9. Heat content variations in the northeastern Arabian sea during a weak spell of 1986 summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sarma, M.S.S.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.

    Based on time series measurements of temperature and surface meteorological parameters taken at a stationary location (10 degrees N;67 degrees E) in the northeastern Arabian Sea during a weak spell of 1986 monsoon from 29th August to 5th September...

  10. Clouds vertical properties over the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions from CloudSat-CALIPSO measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Subrata Kumar; Golhait, R. B.; Uma, K. N.

    2017-01-01

    The CloudSat spaceborne radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) space-borne lidar measurements, provide opportunities to understand the intriguing behavior of the vertical structure of monsoon clouds. The combined CloudSat-CALIPSO data products have been used for the summer season (June-August) of 2006-2010 to present the statistics of cloud macrophysical (such as cloud occurrence frequency, distribution of cloud top and base heights, geometrical thickness and cloud types base on occurrence height), and microphysical (such as ice water content, ice water path, and ice effective radius) properties of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon region. The monsoon regions considered in this work are the North American (NAM), North African (NAF), Indian (IND), East Asian (EAS), and Western North Pacific (WNP). The total cloud fraction over the IND (mostly multiple-layered cloud) appeared to be more frequent as compared to the other monsoon regions. Three distinctive modes of cloud top height distribution are observed over all the monsoon regions. The high-level cloud fraction is comparatively high over the WNP and IND. The ice water content and ice water path over the IND are maximum compared to the other monsoon regions. We found that the ice water content has little variations over the NAM, NAF, IND, and WNP as compared to their macrophysical properties and thus give an impression that the regional differences in dynamics and thermodynamics properties primarily cause changes in the cloud frequency or coverage and only secondary in the cloud ice properties. The background atmospheric dynamics using wind and relative humidity from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data have also been investigated which helps in understanding the variability of the cloud properties over the different monsoon regions.

  11. Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandeep, S.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Boos, William R.; Sabin, T. P.; Praveen, V.

    2018-03-01

    Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ˜600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario. The distribution of LPS genesis shifts poleward as it weakens, with oceanic genesis decreasing by ˜60% and continental genesis increasing by ˜10%; over land the increase in storm counts is accompanied by a shift toward lower storm wind speeds. The weakening and poleward shift of the genesis distribution in a warmer climate are confirmed and attributed, via a statistical model, to the reduction and poleward shift of low-level absolute vorticity over the monsoon region, which in turn are robust features of most coupled model projections. The poleward shift in LPS activity results in an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events over northern India.

  12. Reconstruction of late Quaternary monsoon oscillations based on clay mineral proxies using sediment cores from the western margin of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thamban, M.; Rao, V.P.; Schneider, R.R.

    sites were from the hinterland rocks and soils. Careful evaluations of several factors that could complicate the clay distribution in marine environment indicate that the clay mineral parameters can be used as proxies for the intensity of summer monsoon...

  13. A 22,000-Year Record of Monsoonal Precipitation from Northern Chile's Atacama Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt; Latorre; Rech; Quade; Rylander

    2000-09-01

    Fossil rodent middens and wetland deposits from the central Atacama Desert (22 degrees to 24 degrees S) indicate increasing summer precipitation, grass cover, and groundwater levels from 16.2 to 10.5 calendar kiloyears before present (ky B.P.). Higher elevation shrubs and summer-flowering grasses expanded downslope across what is now the edge of Absolute Desert, a broad expanse now largely devoid of rainfall and vegetation. Paradoxically, this pluvial period coincided with the summer insolation minimum and reduced adiabatic heating over the central Andes. Summer precipitation over the central Andes and central Atacama may depend on remote teleconnections between seasonal insolation forcing in both hemispheres, the Asian monsoon, and Pacific sea surface temperature gradients. A less pronounced episode of higher groundwater levels in the central Atacama from 8 to 3 ky B.P. conflicts with an extreme lowstand of Lake Titicaca, indicating either different climatic forcing or different response times and sensitivities to climatic change.

  14. A lidar study of atmospheric aerosols during two contrasting monsoon seasons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devara, P.C.S.; Raj, P.E. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (India)

    1998-10-01

    The vertical profiles of the boundary-layer aerosols obtained with a bistatic argon ion lidar system at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India, during two contrasting, successive south-west (summer) monsoon seasons of 1987 (weak monsoon year) and 1988 (active monsoon year) have been examined. The concurrent meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and rainfall over Pune have also been studied. It is noticed that the aerosol columnar content (integration of vertical profile throughout the height range) is greater during the active monsoon months and less during the weak monsoon months. Thus the monsoon season total rainfall during 1987 and 1988, apart from other meteorological parameters, shows close correspondence with the aerosol columnar content over the experimental station. A brief description of the lidar experimental setup and the database is given. The observed association between the aerosol columnar content and the monsoon activity is explained in terms of the environmental and meteorological conditions prevailing over Pune. [Spanish] Los perfiles verticales de los aerosoles de la capa fronteriza obtenidos mediante un sistema de Lidar biestatico de iones de argon en el Instituto de Meteorologia Tropical (IITM) en Pune, India, durante dos estaciones contrastantes y suscesivas del monzon del SW (verano) de 1987 (ano de monzon debil) y 1988 (ano activo de monzon) han sido estudiados. Los parametros meteorologicos concurrentes tales como temperatura, humedad relativa y lluvia en Pune, han sido tambien estudiados. Se observa que el contenido columnar de aerosoles (integracion del perfil vertical en toda la gama de alturas) es mayor durante los meses del monzon activo y menor en los meses del monzon debil. De manera que, el total de la lluvia monzonica durante 1987 y 1988, aparte de otros parametros meteorologicos, muestran una correspondencia intima con el contenido columnar de a erosoles sobre la estacion

  15. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Li

    Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

  16. Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on East Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Lee, J.

    2017-12-01

    Humans modify the Earth's terrestrial surface on a continental scale by removing natural vegetation for crops/grazing. The current rates, extents and intensities of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) are greater than ever in history. The earlier studies of Land-atmosphere interactions used specified land surface conditions without interannual variations. In this study using NCEP CFSv2 coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, biogeophysical impacts of LULCC on climate variability, anomaly, and changes are investigated by using the LULCC map from the Hurtt et al. (2006, 2011), which covered 66 years from 1950-2015 with annual variability. We combined the changes in crop and pasture fractions and consider as LULCC. A methodology had been developed to convert the Hurtt LULCC change map with 1° resolution to the GCM grid points. Since the GCM has only one dominant type, when the crop and pasture frction value at one point was larger than the critical value, that grid was assigned as degraded. Comprehensive evaluation was conducted to ensure the consistence of the trend of land degradation in the Hurtt's map and in the GCM LULCC map. In the degraded point, trees were changed to low vegetation or grasses, and low vegetation to bare soil. A set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, vegetation height, roughness length, and soil parameters, associated with vegetation are changed to show the degradation effects. We integrated the model with the potential vegetation map and the map with LULCC from 1950 to 2015, and the results indicate the LULCC causes precipitation reduction globally, with the strongest signals over monsoon regions. For instance, the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produced significant precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. Meanwhile, it has also found that the LULCC enhances the surface warming during the summer in monsoon

  17. Molecular records of continental air temperature and monsoon precipitation variability in East Asia spanning the past 130,000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.; Martínez-García, A.; Zhou, B.; Beets, C.J.; Prins, M.A.; Zheng, H.; Eglinton, T.I.

    2014-01-01

    Our current understanding of past changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation intensity derives from several loess–paleosol sequences and oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of well-dated stalagmites. Although temperature is generally presumed to have had minimal impact on EASM records, past

  18. Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Leung, Ruby; Fan, Jiwen; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2017-11-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

  19. Potential forcings of summer temperature variability of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the past 12 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Enlou; Chang, Jie; Sun, Weiwei; Cao, Yanmin; Langdon, Peter; Cheng, Jun

    2018-06-01

    Investigating potential forcing mechanisms of terrestrial summer temperature changes from the Asian summer monsoon influenced area is of importance to better understand the climate variability in these densely populated regions. The results of spectral and wavelet analyses of the published chironomid reconstructed mean July temperature data from Tiancai Lake on the SE Tibetan Plateau are presented. The evidence of solar forcing of the summer temperature variability from the site on centennial timescales where key solar periodicities (at 855 ± 40, 465 ± 40, 315 ± 40 and 165 ± 40 year) are revealed. By using a band-pass filter, coherent fluctuations were found in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and high elevation mid-latitude (26°N) terrestrial temperatures with solar sunspot cycles since about 7.6 ka. The two abrupt cooling events detected from the Tiancai Lake record, centered at ∼9.7 and 3.5 ka were examined respectively. Coupled with the paleoclimate modeling results, the early Holocene event (9.7 ka) is possibly linked to an ocean-atmospheric feedback mechanism whereas the latter event (3.5 ka) may be more directly related to external forcing.

  20. Stalagmite-derived Last Glacial Maximum - Mid Holocene Indian Monsoon Record from Krem Mawmluh, Meghalaya, NE India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lone, M. A.; Routh, J.; Kumar, V.; Mangini, A.; Rangarajan, R.; Ghosh, P.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Shen, C. C.; Ahmad, S. M.; Mii, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal reversals in monsoon winds strongly influence rainfall patterns on the Indian sub-continent regulating the socio-economy of south Asian region. High-resolution centennial-millennial scale records of climate change from the core zone of the monsoon impacted region are nonetheless very few. Here, we report Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability record from an 87-cm long stalagmite (KM-1) from Krem Mawmluh in the Khasi Hills, Meghalaya. The absolute dated stalagmite record ranges from 22.7 (LGM) to 6.7 ka (Mid Holocene), revealing last glacial-interglacial paleoclimatic changes over the Indian sub-continent. A sharp change in δ18O ( 5‰) and growth rate post Younger Dryas (YD) is marked by continued rapid speleogenesis in KM-1 and coincides with monsoon intensification during the early Holocene. Prominent multi-centennial to millennial scale dry phases in ISM activity are observed from LGM to YD. During early to mid-Holocene, the record shows significant multi-decadal to centennial scale changes. The high frequency δ18O variations referring to abrupt changes in ISM activity are believed to be driven by changes in temperature and shifting of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

  1. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  2. Asian monsoons and aridification response to Paleogene sea retreat and Neogene westerly shielding indicated by seasonality in Paratethys oysters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougeois, Laurie; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; de Rafélis, Marc; Tindall, Julia C.; Proust, Jean-Noël; Reichart, Gert-Jan; de Nooijer, Lennart J.; Guo, Zhaojie; Ormukov, Cholponbelk

    2018-03-01

    Asian climate patterns, characterised by highly seasonal monsoons and continentality, are thought to originate in the Eocene epoch (56 to 34 million years ago - Ma) in response to global climate, Tibetan Plateau uplift and the disappearance of the giant Proto-Paratethys sea formerly extending over Eurasia. The influence of this sea on Asian climate has hitherto not been constrained by proxy records despite being recognised as a major driver by climate models. We report here strongly seasonal records preserved in annual lamina of Eocene oysters from the Proto-Paratethys with sedimentological and numerical data showing that monsoons were not dampened by the sea and that aridification was modulated by westerly moisture sourced from the sea. Hot and arid summers despite the presence of the sea suggest a strong anticyclonic zone at Central Asian latitudes and an orographic effect from the emerging Tibetan Plateau. Westerly moisture precipitating during cold and wetter winters appear to have decreased in two steps. First in response to the late Eocene (34-37 Ma) sea retreat; second by the orogeny of the Tian Shan and Pamir ranges shielding the westerlies after 25 Ma. Paleogene sea retreat and Neogene westerly shielding thus provide two successive mechanisms forcing coeval Asian desertification and biotic crises.

  3. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-04-01

    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  4. Importance of monsoon rainfall in mass fluxes of filtered and unfiltered mercury in Gwangyang Bay, Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Jiyi; Han, Seunghee

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the effects of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which brings approximately half of Korea's annual rainfall in July, on the concentration and particle-water partitioning, and sources of Hg in coastal waters. Surface seawater samples were collected from eight sites in Gwangyang Bay, Korea, during the monsoon (July, 2009) and non-monsoon dry (April and November, 2009) seasons and the concentrations of suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and unfiltered and filtered Hg were determined. We found significant (p 0.05) between the monsoon (459 ± 141 pmol g -1 ) and the dry season (346 ± 30 pmol g -1 ), which resulted in decreased particle-water partition coefficients of Hg in the monsoon season compared to the values in the dry season: 5.7 ± 0.1 in April, 5.3 ± 0.1 in July, and 5.8 ± 0.1 in November. The annual Hg input to Gwangyang Bay was estimated at 64 ± 6.6 mol yr -1 and 27 ± 1.9 mol yr -1 for unfiltered and filtered Hg, respectively. The Hg discharged from rivers was a major source of Hg in Gwangyang Bay: the river input contributed 83 ± 13% of total input of unfiltered and 73 ± 6.0% of filtered Hg. On a monthly basis, unfiltered Hg input was 17 ± 11 mol month -1 in the monsoon season and 3.2 ± 0.70 mol month -1 in the dry season, while filtered Hg input was 7.1 ± 4.1 mol month -1 in the monsoon and 1.3 ± 0.26 mol month -1 in the dry. Consequently, the EASM resulted in an unfiltered Hg input 5.3 times greater than the mean dry month input and a filtered Hg input 5.5 times greater than the mean dry month input, which is mainly attributable to enhanced river water discharge during the monsoon season. - Research Highlights: → Filtered mercury concentration increased in the monsoon month in coastal water. → The monsoon rain increased unfiltered Hg input 5.5 times greater than the dry month. → The monsoon rain increased filtered Hg input 5.3 times greater than the dry month.

  5. Impact of convection over the equatorial trough on the summer monsoon activity over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schulz, J.

    . There have been studies (Cadet and Olory Togbe, 1981; Sadhuram and Sastry, 1987) on the role of Equatorial Trough (ET) as well as Southern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (SHET) on the rainfall over central India. Most of these studies are related... the ET, WET and EET behave in a similar fashion during different monsoon and El Nino conditions ? c) What role do the synoptic systems play during the BM over the Indian subcontinent? 2. Data and Methodology The pentad precipitation data used...

  6. A study on the characteristics of temperature inversions in active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Mohankumar, K.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    The thermal inversion characteristics during active and break cycles of two consecutive and contrasting monsoon years were studied using GPS radiosonde profiles in Goa (15 degrees 46′ N; 73 degrees 08′ E), located on the west coast of India...

  7. On the climate model simulation of Indian monsoon low pressure systems and the effect of remote disturbances and systematic biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Richard C.; Martin, Gill M.

    2018-06-01

    Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale systems forming over the Indian monsoon trough region, contributing substantially to seasonal mean summer monsoon rainfall there. Many current global climate models (GCMs), including the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), show deficient rainfall in this region, much of which has previously been attributed to remote systematic biases such as excessive equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) convection, while also substantially under-representing LPS and associated rainfall as they travel westwards across India. Here the sources and sensitivities of LPS to local, remote and short-timescale forcing are examined, in order to understand the poor representation in GCMs. An LPS tracking method is presented using TRACK feature tracking software for comparison between re-analysis data-sets, MetUM GCM and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. RCM simulations, at similar horizontal resolution to the GCM and forced with re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries, are carried out with different domains to examine the effects of remote biases. The results suggest that remote biases contribute significantly to the poor simulation of LPS in the GCM. As these remote systematic biases are common amongst many current GCMs, it is likely that GCMs are intrinsically capable of representing LPS, even at relatively low resolution. The main problem areas are time-mean excessive EIO convection and poor representation of precursor disturbances transmitted from the Western Pacific. The important contribution of the latter is established using RCM simulations forced by climatological 6-hourly lateral boundary conditions, which also highlight the role of LPS in moving rainfall from steep orography towards Central India.

  8. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, C M; Turner, A G; Brayshaw, D J

    2015-01-01

    India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors

  9. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

    2015-06-01

    India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

  10. Cloud-radiation-precipitation associations over the Asian monsoon region: an observational analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiandong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Dong, Xiquan; Mao, Jiangyu

    2017-11-01

    This study uses 2001-2014 satellite observations and reanalyses to investigate the seasonal characteristics of Cloud Radiative Effects (CREs) and their associations with cloud fraction (CF) and precipitation over the Asian monsoon region (AMR) covering Eastern China (EC) and South Asia (SA). The CREs exhibit strong seasonal variations but show distinctly different relationships with CFs and precipitation over the two regions. For EC, the CREs is dominated by shortwave (SW) cooling, with an annual mean value of - 40 W m- 2 for net CRE, and peak in summer while the presence of extensive and opaque low-level clouds contributes to large Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) albedo (>0.5) in winter. For SA, a weak net CRE exists throughout the year due to in-phase compensation of SWCRE by longwave (LW) CRE associated with the frequent occurrence of high clouds. For the entire AMR, SWCRE strongly correlates with the dominant types of CFs, although the cloud vertical structure plays important role particularly in summer. The relationships between CREs and precipitation are stronger in SA than in EC, indicating the dominant effect of monsoon circulation in the former region. SWCRE over EC is only partly related to precipitation and shows distinctive regional variations. Further studies need to pay more attention to vertical distributions of cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, and associated precipitation systems over the AMR.

  11. An Assessment of Monsoon Triggered Landslides in Western Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudan Acharya, Madhu

    2010-05-01

    Due to heavy monsoon rain, rugged topography and very young mountains, frequent slope failures and soil erosion are very common in Nepal but in most of cases the natural slopes are disturbed by men to construct a road through it and the situation further aggravated by the Monsoon rain. Summer usually tests the disaster response capacity of Nepal, when the monsoons trigger water induced disasters. This year Nepal's Western regions were most severely affected by floods and landslides. Every year, sadly, it is the same story of mostly poor people living in remote villages succumbing to landslides and flooding and those who survive facing hardships brought on by the disaster. The tail end of the monsoon in October has triggered flood and landslides in Nepal which affected a total of 14 districts in the mid and far-west regions, of which Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, Dadeldhura, Accham and Kanchapur district are most affected. The affected areas are geographically scattered and remote, and are therefore difficult to access. In this year (2009), flood and landslides have claimed 62 lives, affecting more than 152,000 individuals from 27,000 families. More than 4,000 families are displaced and are taking shelter in schools, open space and forest areas with no protection from the external elements. In the above context the prevention and mitigation measures for landslides is a great challenge for Nepal. Nepal has been investing its huge amount of resources to stabilize landslides and roadside slope failures, still then it has become unmanageable during Monsoon time. Considering the above facts, an assessment of landslides which were occurred during the Monsoon (July-October 2009), along Khodpe - Jhota - Chainpur road in far western region of Nepal has been carried out based on the field observation of various landslides. The paper presents the causes and mechanisms of failures of different landslides which are mostly triggered by Monsoon rain. It also suggests some low cost

  12. A method for deterministic statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at a monsoonal site in Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yonghe; Feng, Jinming; Liu, Xiu; Zhao, Yadi

    2017-12-01

    Statistical downscaling (SD) is a method that acquires the local information required for hydrological impact assessment from large-scale atmospheric variables. Very few statistical and deterministic downscaling models for daily precipitation have been conducted for local sites influenced by the East Asian monsoon. In this study, SD models were constructed by selecting the best predictors and using generalized linear models (GLMs) for Feixian, a site in the Yishu River Basin and Shandong Province. By calculating and mapping Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the gridded standardized values of five large-scale variables and daily observed precipitation, different cyclonic circulation patterns were found for monsoonal precipitation in summer (June-September) and winter (November-December and January-March); the values of the gridded boxes with the highest absolute correlations for observed precipitation were selected as predictors. Data for predictors and predictands covered the period 1979-2015, and different calibration and validation periods were divided when fitting and validating the models. Meanwhile, the bootstrap method was also used to fit the GLM. All the above thorough validations indicated that the models were robust and not sensitive to different samples or different periods. Pearson's correlations between downscaled and observed precipitation (logarithmically transformed) on a daily scale reached 0.54-0.57 in summer and 0.56-0.61 in winter, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between downscaled and observed precipitation reached 0.1 in summer and 0.41 in winter. The downscaled precipitation partially reflected exact variations in winter and main trends in summer for total interannual precipitation. For the number of wet days, both winter and summer models were able to reflect interannual variations. Other comparisons were also made in this study. These results demonstrated that when downscaling, it is appropriate to combine a correlation

  13. Fire history and climate characteristics during the last millennium of the Great Hinggan Mountains at the monsoon margin in northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chuanyu; He, Jiabao; Zhang, Yan; Cong, Jinxin; Han, Dongxue; Wang, Guoping

    2018-03-01

    The northeastern region of China, at the limit of the summer monsoon, is characterized by the presence of mountains that influenced by the Asian summer monsoon on one side and the westerlies on the other; however, few studies have compared the environmental characteristics on the two sides of these mountains. In this study, two peatland cores from the western and eastern sides of the Great Hinggan Mountains were investigated to better understand the climatic and environmental conditions and the measurements of black carbon (BC) and δ13C-BC were used to reconstruct the fire history and environmental characteristics during the last millennium. Our results showed that the variations in the δ13C-BC values are more sensitive to climate changes than the BC fluxes, and the climate forcing mechanisms differed between the two sides of the mountains. Lower δ13C-BC values around 500 cal yr BP on the western side of the mountains indicated climate conditions were wetter than that on the eastern side, and were influenced by low sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The region east of the mountains was mainly influenced by the strong Asian summer monsoon, and the decreasing of δ13C-BC values indicated climate conditions became wetter from 250 cal yr BP to the present and were wetter than that on the western side after 150 cal yr BP. Moreover, when one of these two forcing factors weakened and the other strengthened (e.g. from 400 to 150 cal yr BP), climate conditions in these two sides were similar.

  14. Distinctive Features of Surface Winds over Indian Ocean Between Strong and Weak Indian Summer Monsoons: Implications With Respect To Regional Rainfall Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Bourassa, M. A.; Ali, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    This observational study focuses on characterizing the surface winds in the Arabian Sea (AS), the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) with special reference to the strong and weak Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using the latest daily gridded rainfall dataset provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) gridded wind product version 2.0 produced by Remote Sensing System (RSS) over the overlapped period 1991-2014. The potential links between surface winds and Indian regional rainfall are also examined. Results indicate that the surface wind speeds in AS and BoB during June-August are almost similar during strong ISMRs and weak ISMRs, whereas significant discrepancies are observed during September. By contrast, the surface wind speeds in SIO during June-August are found to be significantly different between strong and weak ISMRs, where they are similar during September. The significant differences in monthly mean surface wind convergence between strong and weak ISMRs are not coherent in space in the three regions. However, the probability density function (PDF) distributions of daily mean area-averaged values are distinctive between strong and weak ISMRs in the three regions. The correlation analysis indicates the area-averaged surface wind speeds in AS and the area-averaged wind convergence in BoB are highly correlated with regional rainfall for both strong and weak ISMRs. The wind convergence in BoB during strong ISMRs is relatively better correlated with regional rainfall than during weak ISMRs. The surface winds in SIO do not greatly affect Indian rainfall in short timescales, however, they will ultimately affect the strength of monsoon circulation by modulating Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode via atmosphere-ocean interactions.

  15. Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-01-01

    Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

  16. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  17. Effects of volcanic eruptions on China's monsoon precipitation over the past 700 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Z.; Gao, C.

    2013-12-01

    illustrates the effectiveness of MADA in reflecting China's hydrological condition during the summer monsoon season. On the other hand, with only SH injection, north and east china turn to wet in the eruption year and show a southward movement of the wettest areas, when compared to NH injection more than 2×Pinatubo. This spatial difference may shed some light on the possible effects stratospheric geoengineering may have on China's precipitation. References: Cook, E. R., et al. (2010), Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium, Science, 328(5977), 486-489. Crowley, T. J., and M. B. Unterman (2013), Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth System Science Data, 5(1), 187-197. Gao, C. C., et al. (2008), Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J Geophys Res, 113(D23111D23).

  18. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

    2017-09-01

    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  19. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user

    and led to the expectation that the impact of the monsoon on the ... a lead time of 10 days to a month for rainfall, temperature, etc., ... trying to predict, such as clouds or a monsoon depression (in ... occur because (i) the models are not perfect (involving many ... ally at many centres in the world, long-range predictions are.

  20. Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.

    1999-07-01

    Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will

  1. Tree ring evidence of a 20th century precipitation surge in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Ram R.

    2011-01-01

    The present study is the first attempt to develop an annual (August-July) precipitation series back to AD 1330 using a tree ring data network of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don) from the Lahaul-Spiti region in the western Himalaya, India. The rainfall reconstruction reveals high magnitude multidecadal droughts during the 14th and 15th centuries and thenceforth a gradual increase in precipitation. Increasingly wet conditions during the 20th century are consistent with other long-term precipitation reconstructions from high Asia and reflect a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle, coincident with what is anticipated due to global warming. Significant relationships between reconstructed precipitation and precipitation records from central southwest Asia, east of the Caspian Sea, ENSO (NINO4-SST) variability and summer monsoon rainfall over central northeast India underscore the utility of our data in synoptic climatology.

  2. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

    2017-10-01

    Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

  3. Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

    2017-07-01

    Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

  4. Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The

  5. Waves in the Red Sea: Response to monsoonal and mountain gap winds

    KAUST Repository

    Ralston, David K.

    2013-08-01

    An unstructured grid, phase-averaged wave model forced with winds from a high resolution atmospheric model is used to evaluate wind wave conditions in the Red Sea over an approximately 2-year period. The Red Sea lies in a narrow rift valley, and the steep topography surrounding the basin steers the dominant wind patterns and consequently the wave climate. At large scales, the model results indicated that the primary seasonal variability in waves was due to the monsoonal wind reversal. During the winter, monsoon winds from the southeast generated waves with mean significant wave heights in excess of 2. m and mean periods of 8. s in the southern Red Sea, while in the northern part of the basin waves were smaller, shorter period, and from northwest. The zone of convergence of winds and waves typically occurred around 19-20°N, but the location varied between 15 and 21.5°N. During the summer, waves were generally smaller and from the northwest over most of the basin. While the seasonal winds oriented along the axis of the Red Sea drove much of the variability in the waves, the maximum wave heights in the simulations were not due to the monsoonal winds but instead were generated by localized mountain wind jets oriented across the basin (roughly east-west). During the summer, a mountain wind jet from the Tokar Gap enhanced the waves in the region of 18 and 20°N, with monthly mean wave heights exceeding 2. m and maximum wave heights of 14. m during a period when the rest of the Red Sea was relatively calm. Smaller mountain gap wind jets along the northeast coast created large waves during the fall and winter, with a series of jets providing a dominant source of wave energy during these periods. Evaluation of the wave model results against observations from a buoy and satellites found that the spatial resolution of the wind model significantly affected the quality of the wave model results. Wind forcing from a 10-km grid produced higher skills for waves than winds from a

  6. Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

    2008-12-01

    The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

  7. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel

    2018-02-01

    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  8. Teleconnections associated with the intensification of the Australian monsoon during El Nino Modoki events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taschetto, A S; Gupta, A Sen; Ummenhofer, C C; England, M H; Haarsma, R J

    2010-01-01

    In this study we investigate the teleconnection between the central-western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming, characteristic of El Nino Modoki events, and Australian rainfall using observations and atmospheric general circulation model experiments. During Modoki events, wet conditions are generally observed over northwestern Australia at the peak of the monsoon season (i.e. January and February) while dry conditions occur in the shoulder-months (i.e. December and March). This results in a shorter but more intense monsoon season over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology. We show that, apart from the well-known displacement of the Walker circulation, the anomalous warming in the central-western equatorial Pacific also induces a westward-propagating disturbance associated with a Gill-type mechanism. This in turn generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia that reinforces the climatological mean conditions during the peak of the monsoon season. The anomalous circulation leads to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation over northern Australia. This response, however, only occurs persistently during austral summer when the South Pacific Convergence Zone is climatologically strengthened, phase-locking the Gill-type response to the seasonal cycle. The interaction between the interannual SST variability during El Nino Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central-west Pacific, driving a Gill-type response to diabatic heating. The intensified monsoonal rainfall occurs strongly in February due to the climatological wind conditions that are normally cyclonic over northwestern Australia.

  9. Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, S.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Analysis of regional climate simulations to evaluate the ability of 11 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in South Asia experiments (CORDEX-South Asia) along with their ensemble to produce precipitation from June to September (JJAS) over the Himalayan region have been carried out. These suite of 11 combinations come from 6 regional climate models (RCMs) driven with 10 initial and boundary conditions from different global climate models and are collectively referred here as 11 CORDEX South Asia experiments. All the RCMs use a similar domain and are having similar spatial resolution of 0.44° ( 50 km). The set of experiments are considered to study precipitation sensitivity associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the study region. This effort is made as ISM plays a vital role in summertime precipitation over the Himalayan region which acts as driver for the sustenance of habitat, population, crop, glacier, hydrology etc. In addition, so far the summer monsoon precipitation climatology over the Himalayan region has not been studied with the help of CORDEX data. Thus this study is initiated to evaluate the ability of the experiments and their ensemble in reproducing the characteristics of summer monsoon precipitation over Himalayan region, for the present climate (1970-2005). The precipitation climatology, annual precipitation cycles and interannual variabilities from each simulation have been assessed against the gridded observational dataset: Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources for the given time period. Further, after the selection of the better performing experiment the frequency distribution of precipitation was also studied. In this study, an approach has also been made to study the degree of agreement among individual experiments as a way to quantify the uncertainty among them. The experiments though show a wide variation among themselves and individually over

  10. Understanding the Unusual 2017 Monsoon and Floods in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Palash, W.; Hasan, M. A.; Nusrat, F.

    2017-12-01

    Driven primarily by the South Asian Monsoon, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin system collectively drains intense precipitation for an area of more than 1.5 million square kilometers during the wet summer season. Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian country in the system, experiences recurrent floods and immense suffering to its population. The 2017 monsoon season was quite unusual in terms of the characteristics of the precipitation received in the basin. The monsoon was spread out over a much larger time span (April-October) compared to the average monsoon season (June-September). Although the monsoon does not typically start until June in Bangladesh, the 2017 season started much earlier in April with unusually heavy precipitation in the Meghna basin region and caused major damage to agriculture in northeastern Bangladesh. The rainfall continued in several record-breaking pulses, compared to the typical one or two large waves. One of the largest pulses occurred in early August with very high in intensity and volume, causing ECMWF to issue a major warning about widespread flooding in Bangladesh, Northern India, and Eastern Nepal. This record flood event impacted over 40 million people in the above regions, causing major damage to life and infrastructure. Although the Brahmaputra rose above the danger level several times this season, the Ganges was unusually low, thus sparing downstream areas from disastrous floods. However, heavy precipitation continued until October, causing urban flooding in Dhaka and Chittagong - and worsening sanitation and public health conditions in southern Bangladesh - currently undergoing a terrible humanitarian crisis involving Rohingya refugees from the Myanmar. Despite marked improvement in flood forecasting systems in recent years, the 2017 floods identified critical gaps in our understanding of the flooding phenomena and limitations of dissemination in these regions. In this study, we investigate 1) the unusual

  11. Understanding the role of moisture transport on the dry bias in indian monsoon simulations by CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahana, A. S.; Pathak, Amey; Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal

    2018-02-01

    We analyse the bias present in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), as simulated by Climate Forecast System Model 2 (CFSv2), the operational model used for monsoon forecasts in India. In the simulations, the precipitation intensity is redistributed within the ITCZ band with southward shifts of precipitation maxima. We observe weakening of maximum intensity of precipitation over the region between 20°N and 14°N. In the simulations by CFSv2, there exists two rain bands: the northern one located slightly southward compared to reanalysis dataset and the southern one over the equator with intensified precipitation. This results in dry bias over land and wet bias over the ocean. We use a Dynamic Recycling Model, based on Lagrangian approach, to investigate the role of various moisture sources in generating these biases. We find that, the dry bias during June exists due to the delayed monsoon onset and reduced moisture flow from the Arabian Sea. As the monsoon progresses, deficiency in the simulated contributions from South Indian Ocean becomes the key source of bias. The reduced supply of moisture from oceanic sources is primarily attributed to the weaker northward transport of moisture flux from the Southern Ocean, associated with a weaker southward energy flux. Inefficiency of the model in simulating the heating in Tibetan plateau during the pre-monsoon period leads to this reduced cross equatorial energy flow. We also find that, towards the end of monsoon season, moisture contributions from land sources namely, Ganga Basin and North-Eastern forests become significant and underestimations of the same in the simulations by CFSv2 result into biases over Central and Eastern India.

  12. Summer moisture changes in the Lake Qinghai area on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded from a meadow section over the past 8400 yrs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiangzhong; Liu, Xiangjun; He, Yuxin; Liu, Weiguo; Zhou, Xin; Wang, Zheng

    2018-02-01

    Holocene climatic and environmental changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been widely discussed based on the climatic records from sedimentary cores. However, differences in the reconstructed climatic history from various studies in this region still exist, probably due to influence of climatic proxies from multiple factors and the chronological uncertainties in lacustrine sediments. Here we present records of terrestrial plant δ13C, soil color and total organic carbon content over the past 8400 years from a well-dated meadow section on the northeastern TP. The terrestrial plant δ13C value serves as a good summer precipitation/moisture indicator in the studied region. Soil color property and TOC content are also able to disentangle the moisture evolution history. All the data show much wet climates at 8400-7400 cal yr BP, dry climates at 7400-6000 cal yr BP and then wet conditions with fluctuation at 6000-3200 cal yr BP. Late Holocene moisture appears to be comparable with moist conditions from 6000 to 3200 cal yr BP. By further comparing the climatic variations in the Lake Qinghai area with records of the reconstructed summer temperature and the Asian Monsoon precipitation, we believe that the pattern of moisture/precipitation evolution in the Lake Qinghai area was not completely consistent with regions around Lake Qinghai, probably due to complicated interaction between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Indian Summer Monsoon.

  13. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  14. Nitrogen deposition in precipitation to a monsoon-affected eutrophic embayment: Fluxes, sources, and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yunchao; Zhang, Jingping; Liu, Songlin; Jiang, Zhijian; Arbi, Iman; Huang, Xiaoping; Macreadie, Peter Ian

    2018-06-01

    Daya Bay in the South China Sea (SCS) has experienced rapid nitrogen pollution and intensified eutrophication in the past decade due to economic development. Here, we estimated the deposition fluxes of nitrogenous species, clarified the contribution of nitrogen from precipitation and measured ions and isotopic composition (δ15N and δ18O) of nitrate in precipitation in one year period to trace its sources and formation processes among different seasons. We found that the deposition fluxes of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), NO3-, NH4+, NO2-, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to Daya Bay were 132.5, 64.4 17.5, 1.0, 49.6 mmol m-2•yr-1, respectively. DON was a significant contributor to nitrogen deposition (37% of TDN), and NO3- accounted for 78% of the DIN in precipitation. The nitrogen deposition fluxes were higher in spring and summer, and lower in winter. Nitrogen from precipitation contributed nearly 38% of the total input of nitrogen (point sources input and dry and wet deposition) in Daya Bay. The δ15N-NO3- abundance, ion compositions, and air mass backward trajectories implicated that coal combustion, vehicle exhausts, and dust from mainland China delivered by northeast monsoon were the main sources in winter, while fossil fuel combustion (coal combustion and vehicle exhausts) and dust from PRD and southeast Asia transported by southwest monsoon were the main sources in spring; marine sources, vehicle exhausts and lightning could be the potential sources in summer. δ18O results showed that OH pathway was dominant in the chemical formation process of nitrate in summer, while N2O5+ DMS/HC pathways in winter and spring.

  15. Intraseasonal SST-precipitation coupling during the Indian Summer Monsoon, and its modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongaramrungruang, S.; Seo, H.; Ummenhofer, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a crucial role in shaping the large proportion of the total precipitation over the Indian subcontinent each year. The ISM rainfall exhibits a particularly strong intraseasonal variability, that has profound socioeconomic consequences, such as agricultural planning and flood preparation. However, our understanding of the variability on this time scale is still limited due to sparse data availability in the past. In this study, we used a combination of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite estimate of rainfall, objectively analyzed surface flux, as well as atmospheric reanalysis product to investigate the nature of the ISM intraseasonal rainfall variability and how it varies year to year. The emphasis is placed on the Bay of Bengal (BoB) where the intraseasonal ocean-atmosphere coupling is most prominent. Results show that the maximum warming of SST leads the onset of heavy precipitation event by 3-5 days, and that surface heat flux and surface wind speed are weak prior to the rain but amplifies and peaks after the rain reaches its maximum. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly affects the observed intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship. The pre-convection SST warming is stronger and more pronounced during the negative phase of the IOD, while the signal is weaker and less organized in the positive phase. This is explained by the column-integrated moisture budget analysis which reveals that, during the ISM heavy rainfall in the BoB, there is more moisture interchange in the form of enhanced vertical advection from the ocean to atmosphere in negative IOD years as compared to positive IOD years. Knowing the distinction of ISM variabilities during opposite phases of the IOD will help contribute to a more reliable prediction of ISM activities.

  16. Characteristics of monsoon inversions over the Arabian Sea observed by satellite sounder and reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dwivedi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Monsoon inversion (MI over the Arabian Sea (AS is one of the important characteristics associated with the monsoon activity over Indian region during summer monsoon season. In the present study, we have used 5 years (2009–2013 of temperature and water vapour measurement data obtained from satellite sounder instrument, an Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI onboard MetOp satellite, in addition to ERA-Interim data, to study their characteristics. The lower atmospheric data over the AS have been examined first to identify the areas where MIs are predominant and occur with higher strength. Based on this information, a detailed study has been made to investigate their characteristics separately in the eastern AS (EAS and western AS (WAS to examine their contrasting features. The initiation and dissipation times of MIs, their percentage occurrence, strength, etc., has been examined using the huge database. The relation with monsoon activity (rainfall over Indian region during normal and poor monsoon years is also studied. WAS ΔT values are  ∼  2 K less than those over the EAS, ΔT being the temperature difference between 950 and 850 hPa. A much larger contrast between the WAS and EAS in ΔT is noticed in ERA-Interim data set vis-à-vis those observed by satellites. The possibility of detecting MI from another parameter, refractivity N, obtained directly from another satellite constellation of GPS Radio Occultation (RO (COSMIC, has also been examined. MI detected from IASI and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS onboard the NOAA satellite have been compared to see how far the two data sets can be combined to study the MI characteristics. We suggest MI could also be included as one of the semipermanent features of southwest monsoon along with the presently accepted six parameters.

  17. Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2002-01-01

    This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

  18. Impact assessment of El Nino and La Nina episodes on local/regional monsoon rainfall in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Sureuder; Rao, V.U.M.; Shigh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    Large scale atmospheric circulation's and climatic anomalies have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather over many parts of the world. In the present paper an attempt has been made to examine regional monsoon dynamics in relation with El Nino and La Nina episodes. The investigation was earned out for the meteorological sub- division's comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of different locations in the region and corresponding data on El Nino and La Nina episodes for the period of 30 years (1970-99) were used for this investigation. During the El Nino episodes, various locations experienced excess rainfall in monsoon ranged between 11 and 22 percent. Under the influence of La Nina episodes, the probability of excess monsoon rainfall at different locations in the sub-division ranged between 13 and 25 percent. However, many locations viz., Hisar, Bhiwani, Gurgaon, Delhi and Chandigarh received deficient monsoon rainfall which was contrary to the global belief of the association between SST anomalies and rainfall distribution. No significant association was observed between El Nino and La Nina and monsoon rainfall at different locations in the entire sub-division. However, there was a strong relationship between these SST anomalies and all India monsoon rainfall over the period under study (1970-99). (author)

  19. SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Pokhrel, Samir; Chakrabarty, Chandrima; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sreenivas, P.

    2018-04-01

    The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean-atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the

  20. Summer precipitation influences the stable oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose in Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roden, John S; Ehleringer, James R

    2007-04-01

    The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose was examined in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees in the western USA to study seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs. Two sites (California and Oregon) had minimal summer rainfall inputs, whereas a third site (Arizona) received as much as 70% of its annual precipitation during the summer months (North American monsoon). For the Arizona site, both the delta(18)O and delta(13)C values of latewood cellulose increased as the fraction of annual precipitation occurring in the summer (July through September) increased. There were no trends in latewood cellulose delta(18)O with the absolute amount of summer rain at any site. The delta(13)C composition of latewood cellulose declined with increasing total water year precipitation for all sites. Years with below-average total precipitation tended to have a higher proportion of their annual water inputs during the summer months. Relative humidity was negatively correlated with latewood cellulose delta(13)C at all sites. Trees at the Arizona site produced latewood cellulose that was significantly more enriched in (18)O compared with trees at the Oregon or California site, implying a greater reliance on an (18)O-enriched water source. Thus, tree-ring records of cellulose delta(18)O and delta(13)C may provide useful proxy information about seasonal precipitation inputs and the variability and intensity of the North American monsoon.

  1. Monsoon-facilitated characteristics and transport of atmospheric mercury at a high-altitude background site in southwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zhang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available To better understand the influence of monsoonal climate and transport of atmospheric mercury (Hg in southwestern China, measurements of total gaseous mercury (TGM, defined as the sum of gaseous elemental mercury, GEM, and gaseous oxidized mercury, GOM, particulate bound mercury (PBM and GOM were carried out at Ailaoshan Station (ALS, 2450 m a.s.l. in southwestern China from May 2011 to May 2012. The mean concentrations (± SD for TGM, GOM and PBM were 2.09 ± 0.63, 2.2 ± 2.3 and 31.3 ± 28.4 pg m−3, respectively. TGM showed a monsoonal distribution pattern with relatively higher concentrations (2.22 ± 0.58 ng m−3, p  =  0.021 during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM, from May to September and the east Asia summer monsoon (EASM, from May to September periods than that (1.99 ± 0.66 ng m−3 in the non-ISM period. Similarly, GOM and PBM concentrations were higher during the ISM period than during the non-ISM period. This study suggests that the ISM and the EASM have a strong impact on long-range and transboundary transport of Hg between southwestern China and south and southeast Asia. Several high TGM events were accompanied by the occurrence of northern wind during the ISM period, indicating anthropogenic Hg emissions from inland China could rapidly increase TGM levels at ALS due to strengthening of the EASM. Most of the TGM and PBM events occurred at ALS during the non-ISM period. Meanwhile, high CO concentrations were also observed at ALS, indicating that a strong south tributary of westerlies could have transported Hg from south and southeast Asia to southwestern China during the non-ISM period. The biomass burning in southeast Asia and anthropogenic Hg emissions from south Asia are thought to be the source of atmospheric Hg in remote areas of southwestern China during the non-ISM period.

  2. An updated astronomical time scale for the Plio-Pleistocene deposits from South China Sea and new insights into Asian monsoon evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Dekkers, M.J.; Qin, L.; Xiao, G.

    2011-01-01

    Here we present an improved astronomical timescale since 5 Ma as recorded in the ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea, using a recently published Asian summer monsoon record (hematite to goethite content ratio, Hm/Gt) and a parallel benthic δ18O record. Correlation of the benthic δ18O

  3. North American Monsoon Response to Eemian Climate Forcings and its Effect on Rocky Mountain Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    The key to recognizing and predicting future changes in regional climate and ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of paleovariations. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130-116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth history when temperatures are believed to have exceeded those of today. In this study, we are focusing on the response of the North American monsoon (NAM) to shifts in orbital forcings during LIG. In particular, we are using regional climate model (RegCM) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate changes in the strength, timing, duration, and amount of moisture transported from different sources during the NAM season. Understanding these variations is critical to forecast seasonal supply of water to the southwestern U.S. under current warming conditions. In addition, cellulose extracted stable isotopes from Rocky Mountain Eemian wood samples provides both a tool to diagnose the model simulations and to evaluate the response of western U.S. tree species to changes in temperature and moisture availability. Our preliminary results indicate enhanced summer precipitation, wind shifts and changes in NAM characteristics in response to increased Northern Hemisphere insolation. The following features were observed: (1) The NAM strengthens and extends slightly more northward during the Eemian due to a shift in upper-level divergence. (2) The onset and duration of the NAM seems to be similar between modern and Eemian simulations. (3) Consistent with modern observations, simulations suggest a western NAM region in Arizona that receives most of its monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California, while the eastern NAM region in New Mexico obtains most of its summer rains from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Eemian, we see a spatial shift from more depleted to more enriched source waters throughout the monsoon season. These changes in the summer climate are confirmed by the tree ring isotope data, which show a

  4. Observed OH and HO2 concentrations in the upper troposphere inside and outside of Asian monsoon influenced air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marno, D. R.; Künstler, C.; Hens, K.; Tatum Ernest, C.; Broch, S.; Fuchs, H.; Martinez, M.; Bourtsoukidis, E.; Williams, J.; Holland, F.; Hofzumahaus, A.; Tomsche, L.; Fischer, H.; Klausner, T.; Schlager, H.; Eirenschmalz, L.; Stratmann, G.; Stock, P.; Ziereis, H.; Roiger, A.; Bohn, B.; Zahn, A.; Wahner, A.; Lelieveld, J.; Harder, H.

    2016-12-01

    The Asian monsoon convectively transports pollutants like volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NOx, and SO2 from the boundary layer over South Asia into the upper troposphere where they can potentially enter the stratosphere, or be dispersed globally. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the oxidizing capacity of this system regarding the rate of aerosol formation, and conversion of pollutants into compounds that have much shorter atmospheric lifetimes. OH plays a central role in this oxidation process. During the OMO-ASIA campaign in the summer of 2015, OH and HO2 were measured onboard the High Altitude Long-Range (HALO) Research Aircraft. Two laser-induced fluorescence instruments based on the fluorescence assay by gas expansion technique (LIF-FAGE) had been deployed, the AIR-LIF instrument from Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH and the HORUS instrument from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz. To measure the chemical background of OH potentially produced inside the HORUS instrument from highly oxidized VOCs, atmospheric OH is scavenged by an Inlet Pre-injector (IPI) system. This was the first time an IPI system was implemented within an airborne LIF-FAGE instrument measuring OH and HO2. Throughout this campaign OH and HO2 were measured at 12 to 15km within the Asian monsoon anticyclone. These measurements have been contrasted by probing air outside the anticyclone in air masses influenced by North American emissions, and in very clean air masses originated from the southern hemisphere.

  5. Environmental status of the Jilantai Basin, North China, on the northwestern margin of the modern Asian summer monsoon domain during Marine Isotope Stage 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yuxin; Wang, Yongda; Mou, Xuesong; Zhao, Hui; Zhang, Fu; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Wenhao; Hui, Zhengchuang; Huang, Xiaozhong; Ma, Jun

    2017-10-01

    Two drill cores were obtained from the Jilantai sub-depression (JLT(d)) and the neighboring Dengkou sub-uplift (DK(u)), within a huge, former lake basin in northern China. From an analysis of the lithology and pollen assemblages, combined with radiocarbon dating of extracted pollen and OSL dating of extracted quartz, we concluded the following: JLT(d) was continuously occupied by lakes since 85 ka; however, DK(u), the neighboring sub-uplift, was covered by lakes during 80-74 ka, 50-44 ka, 32.5-27.5 ka and DK(u) during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Evidence from shorelines, previously published cores, and the sedimentary and chronological evidence presented in this paper indicate the occurrence of a sub-humid environment, characterized by the occurrence of lakes separated by dunes, in the Jilantai Basin during MIS 3. However, further work is needed to understand the environmental significance of the co-existence of lakes and dunes during MIS 3, although a sub-humid climate background during MIS 3 is supported by well-dated geological archives along the western front of the present-day Asian Summer Monsoon domain and its eastern extensional area.

  6. Seasonal phytoplankton blooms associated with monsoonal influences and coastal environments in the sea areas either side of the Indochina Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Dan Ling; Kawamura, Hiroshi; Shi, Ping; Takahashi, Wataru; Guan, Lei; Shimada, Teruhisa; Sakaida, Futoki; Isoguchi, Osamu

    2006-03-01

    The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) is a semienclosed sea on the west and southwest side of the Indochina Peninsula and connects with the near-coastal waters of the South China Sea (SCS) on the east and northeast side of the Malay Peninsula. The objective of the present study is to understand dynamic features of the phytoplankton biology in the GoT and the nearby SCS, on both sides of the Indochina Peninsula, using remote-sensing measurements of chlorophyll-a (Chl a), sea surface temperature (SST), and surface vector winds obtained during the period from September 1997 to March 2003. Results show that seasonal variations of the phytoplankton blooms are primarily controlled by the monsoonal winds and related coastal environments. The GoT and the near-coastal SCS have a peak in the averaged monthly Chl a in December and January, which is associated with the winter northeaster monsoon. The near-coastal SCS have another big peak in the averaged monthly Chl a in summer (July to September), which is associated with the summer southwest monsoon. The offshore bloom in the GoT occurs in its southern part and enhances the December-January peak of averaged monthly Chl a. By contrast, the offshore bloom in the nearby SCS is observed northeast of the Peninsula, and represents the primary source of the July-September peak Chl a. Here the coastal upwelling associated with the offshore Ekman transport caused by the coastal surface winds parallel to the Vietnam east coast gives physical conditions favorable to the development of offshore phytoplankton blooms. The Mekong River discharge waters flow in different directions, depending on the monsoon winds, and contributes to seasonal blooms on both sides of the Peninsula.

  7. Future changes in the East Asian rain band projected by global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo [Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Matsueda, Mio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2011-12-15

    Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations, the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model, precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July, Korean peninsula in May, and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley, the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. (orig.)

  8. Wetting and greening Tibetan Plateau in early summer in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxia; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Lixia

    2017-06-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an essential role in the global hydrological cycle. Unlike the well-recognized surface warming, changes in precipitation over the TP and the underlying mechanisms remain ambiguous. A significant increase in the amount of precipitation over the southeastern TP in May over 1979-2014 (13.46% decade-1 of the climatology) is identified in this study, based on homogenized daily rain gauge data. Both the increased precipitation frequency and intensity have contributions. The coherent increases in soil moisture content and vegetation activities further confirm the precipitation trend, indicating a wetting and greening TP in the early summer in recent decades. The moisture budget analysis shows that this wetting trend in the past four decades is dominated by the increased water vapor convergence due to circulation changes, while increases in specific humidity play a minor role. The wetting trend over the TP in May results directly from the earlier onset of the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) since the late 1970s associated with the phase transition of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around the late 1990s. The earlier onset of the ASM triggers low-level southwesterly anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean, promoting moisture convergence and increased precipitation over the TP in May. Specifically, the increased amount of precipitation after the onset of the ASM explains 95% of the increase in the total amount of precipitation in May.

  9. Intensified oxygen minimum zone on the western shelf of Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon: Influence of river discharge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sarma, V.V.S.S.; Krishna, M.S.; Viswanadham, R.; Rao, G.D.; Rao, V.D.; Sridevi, B.; Kumar, B.S.K.; Prasad, V.R.; Subbaiah, Ch.V.; Acharyya, T.; Bandopadhyay, D.

    monsoon 2001. Deep Sea Res. II, 50, 881–896. McAullife, C. (1971). GC Determination of solutes by multiple phase equilibration. Chemical Technology, 1, 46-50. Milliman, J.D., and R.H. Meade (1983). World-wide delivery of river sediment...

  10. Differences in heat budgets of the near-surface Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: Implications for the summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    . The atmos0pheric heating associated with the convection plays a critical role in sustaining the monsoon winds, and the rainfall associated with it, not only over the bay but also over the Indian subcontinent, maintains a low-salinity surface layer...

  11. Tropical/Subtropical Peatland Development and Global CH4 during the Last Glaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hai; Lan, Jianghu; Sheng, Enguo; Liu, Yong; Liu, Bin; Yu, Keke; Ye, Yuanda; Cheng, Peng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan; Wang, Xulong

    2016-07-28

    Knowledge of peatland development over the tropical/subtropical zone during the last glaciation is critical for understanding the glacial global methane cycle. Here we present a well-dated 'peat deposit-lake sediment' alternate sequence at Tengchong, southwestern China, and discuss the peatland development and its linkage to the global glacial methane cycle. Peat layers were formed during the cold Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-2 and -4, whereas lake sediments coincided with the relatively warm MIS-3, which is possibly related to the orbital/suborbital variations in both temperature and Asian summer monsoon intensity. The Tengchong peatland formation pattern is broadly synchronous with those over subtropical southern China and other tropical/subtropical areas, but it is clearly in contrast to those over the mid-high Northern Hemisphere. The results of this work suggest that the shifts of peatland development between the tropical/subtropical zone and mid-high Northern Hemisphere may have played important roles in the glacial/interglacial global atmospheric CH4 cycles.

  12. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  13. Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.

    2014-12-01

    The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.

  14. Convective environment in pre-monsoon and monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent: the impact of surface forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Thermodynamic soundings for pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons from the Indian subcontinent are analysed to document differences between convective environments. The pre-monsoon environment features more variability for both near-surface moisture and free-tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles. As a result, the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB and pseudo-adiabatic convective available potential energy (CAPE vary more for the pre-monsoon environment. Pre-monsoon soundings also feature higher lifting condensation levels (LCLs. LCL heights are shown to depend on the availability of surface moisture, with low LCLs corresponding to high surface humidity, arguably because of the availability of soil moisture. A simple theoretical argument is developed and showed to mimic the observed relationship between LCLs and surface moisture. We argue that the key element is the partitioning of surface energy flux into its sensible and latent components, that is, the surface Bowen ratio, and the way the Bowen ratio affects surface buoyancy flux. We support our argument with observations of changes in the Bowen ratio and LCL height around the monsoon onset, and with idealized simulations of cloud fields driven by surface heat fluxes with different Bowen ratios.

  15. Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölg, Thomas; Maussion, Fabien; Collier, Emily; Chiang, John C. H.; Scherer, Dieter

    2017-12-01

    High Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July-September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well-established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes.

  16. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  17. How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen

    2016-04-01

    Ethiopian economy and society are strongly dependent on agriculture and therefore rainfall. Reliable forecasts for the rainy seasons are important to allow for agricultural planning and drought preparations. The operational seasonal forecasts for Ethiopia are based on analogue methods relying mainly on sea surface temperature (SST) indices. A better understanding of the physical links between Ethiopian rainfall and SST may help to improve forecasts. The highest rainfall rates are observed in the Kiremt season (defined as JJAS), which is the rainy season in Central and Northwestern Ethiopia. Kiremt rainfall shows clear negative correlation with Central Pacific SST, linking dry Ethiopian summers with ENSO-like warm SST anomalies. We use the atmosphere general circulation model Echam5.3 to investigate the physical link between Pacific SST anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare a historical simulation with a T106 horizontal resolution (~ 1.125°), forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based rainfall observations for the time period of 1961 to 2009. Composite analysis for model and observations show warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific and a corresponding large-scale circulation anomaly with subsidence over Ethiopia in dry Kiremt seasons. Horizontal wind fields show a slow-down of the whole Indian monsoon system with a weaker Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and a weaker East African Low-Level Jet (EALLJ) in these summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment with El Nino like SST anomalies in the Central Pacific with the same Echam version. Its results show that warm Pacific SST anomalies cause dry summer conditions over Ethiopia. While the large-scale subsidence over East Africa is present in the experiment, there is no significant weakening of the Indian monsoon system. We rather find an anomalous circulation cell over Northern Africa with westerlies at 100-200 hPa and easterlies below 500 hPa. The anomalous easterly flow in the lower and middle

  18. Detecting human impacts on the flora, fauna, and summer monsoon of Pleistocene Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. H.; Magee, J. W.; Fogel, M. L.; Gagan, M. K.

    2006-08-01

    soil type (moisture recycling, surface roughness, albedo) may have weakened the penetration of monsoon moisture into the continental interior under the new ecosystem. Climate modeling suggests such a shift may have reduced monsoon rain in the interior by as much as 50%.

  19. Equatorward dispersion of a high-latitude volcanic plume and its relation to the Asian summer monsoon: a case study of the Sarychev eruption in 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xue; Griessbach, Sabine; Hoffmann, Lars

    2017-11-01

    Tropical volcanic eruptions have been widely studied for their significant contribution to stratospheric aerosol loading and global climate impacts, but the impact of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer is not clear and the pathway of transporting aerosol from high latitudes to the tropical stratosphere is not well understood. In this work, we focus on the high-latitude volcano Sarychev (48.1° N, 153.2° E), which erupted in June 2009, and the influence of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) on the equatorward dispersion of the volcanic plume. First, the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission time series and plume height of the Sarychev eruption are estimated with SO2 observations of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and a backward trajectory approach using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC). Then, the transport and dispersion of the plume are simulated using the derived SO2 emission time series. The transport simulations are compared with SO2 observations from AIRS and validated with aerosol observations from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). The MPTRAC simulations show that about 4 % of the sulfur emissions were transported to the tropical stratosphere within 50 days after the beginning of the eruption, and the plume dispersed towards the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through isentropic transport above the subtropical jet. The MPTRAC simulations and MIPAS aerosol data both show that between the potential temperature levels of 360 and 400 K, the equatorward transport was primarily driven by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking enhanced by the ASM in boreal summer. The volcanic plume was entrained along the anticyclone flows and reached the TTL as it was transported southwestwards into the deep tropics downstream of the anticyclone. Further, the ASM anticyclone influenced the pathway of aerosols by isolating an aerosol hole inside of the ASM, which

  20. Different sub-monsoon signals in stable oxygen isotope in daily precipitation to the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxin Yang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a stable oxygen isotope (δ18O record in daily precipitation from two sites located to the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau (TP: Yushu on the eastern TP and Xi'an on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau. It attempts to reveal the unique features associated with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns over inland China. For δ18O in daily precipitation at both stations, temperature effect is significant (p < 0.01 only during non-monsoon, while amount effect is significant only during monsoon. This suggests the coexistence of local recycling with large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation, which is further verified by the significant correlation of relative humidity with δ18O at both stations during monsoon season. The similarity of δ18O in regions under the supposedly same atmospheric circulation streams is tested for Yushu with that at Lhasa, Lulang and Delingha, demonstrating the lag days of δ18O depletion at Yushu with that at Lulang as varying from 15 to 25 d. This confirms the Bay of Bengal monsoon dominance over Yushu. Daily δ18O at Xi'an is compared with contemporary data at Changsha and Guangzhou, featuring a close correlation with the East Asian summer monsoon evolution processes over eastern China, and reflecting the Meiyu-Baiu front influence during July. Back-trajectory analysis in October–November at Xi'an identified the combined effect of cooling of the atmospheric column by the colder air from the west and the lifting of the warmer air from the east, which coexists with local water vapour source. Interactions of the three result in condensation at lower temperatures that is coupled with the long-distance transport of 2/3 of the available water vapour, thus leading to extremely low δ18O values in the post-monsoon precipitation.

  1. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  2. Representation of the West African Monsoon System in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanelle, Tanja; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bey, Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a major component of the global monsoon system. The temperature contrast between the Saharan land surface in the North and the sea surface temperature in the South dominates the WAM formation. The West African region receives most of its precipitation during the monsoon season between end of June and September. Therefore the existence of the monsoon is of major social and economic importance. We discuss the ability of the climate model ECHAM6 as well as the coupled aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 to simulate the major features of the WAM system. The north-south temperature gradient is reproduced by both model versions but all model versions fail in reproducing the precipitation amount south of 10° N. A special focus is on the representation of the nocturnal low level jet (NLLJ) and the corresponding enhancement of low level clouds (LLC) at the Guinea Coast, which are a crucial factor for the regional energy budget. Most global climate models have difficulties to represent these features. The pure climate model ECHAM6 is able to simulate the existence of the NLLJ and LLC, but the model does not represent the pronounced diurnal cycle. Overall, the representation of LLC is worse in the coupled model. We discuss the model behaviors on the basis of outputted temperature and humidity tendencies and try to identify potential processes responsible for the model deficiencies.

  3. Waves in shallow water off west coast of India during the onset of summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Philip, C.S.; Nair, T.N.B.

    and narrowness parameter varies from 0 to 1, and will have smaller values for narrower spectra. Spectral peaked- ness parameter will have higher values for narrow spectra. ε= radicalBigg 1− m 2 2 m0m4 (1) ν= radicalBiggm 0m2 m21 −1 (2) Qp = 2m2 0 integraldisplay.... Mandal, J. C. and Halder, S. R.: Sea breeze like cloud-free zones during monsoon months, Mausam, 43, 163–168, 1992. Massel, S. R.: On the largest wave height in water of constant depth, Ocean Eng., 23, 553–573, 1996. Miles, J.: On the generation...

  4. Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

    2014-10-01

    Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

  5. Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

    2017-12-01

    The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

  6. Trace gas composition in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone: a case study based on aircraft observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschaldt, Klaus-D.; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Bozem, Heiko; Eyring, Veronika; Hoor, Peter; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

    2017-05-01

    We present in situ measurements of the trace gas composition of the upper tropospheric (UT) Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) performed with the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) in the frame of the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign. Air masses with enhanced O3 mixing ratios were encountered after entering the ASMA at its southern edge at about 150 hPa on 18 September 2012. This is in contrast to the presumption that the anticyclone's interior is dominated by recently uplifted air with low O3 in the monsoon season. We also observed enhanced CO and HCl in the ASMA, which are tracers for boundary layer pollution and tropopause layer (TL) air or stratospheric in-mixing respectively. In addition, reactive nitrogen was enhanced in the ASMA. Along the HALO flight track across the ASMA boundary, strong gradients of these tracers separate anticyclonic from outside air. Lagrangian trajectory calculations using HYSPLIT show that HALO sampled a filament of UT air three times, which included air masses uplifted from the lower or mid-troposphere north of the Bay of Bengal. The trace gas gradients between UT and uplifted air masses were preserved during transport within a belt of streamlines fringing the central part of the anticyclone (fringe), but are smaller than the gradients across the ASMA boundary. Our data represent the first in situ observations across the southern part and downstream of the eastern ASMA flank. Back-trajectories starting at the flight track furthermore indicate that HALO transected the ASMA where it was just splitting into a Tibetan and an Iranian part. The O3-rich filament is diverted from the fringe towards the interior of the original anticyclone, and is at least partially bound to become part of the new Iranian eddy. A simulation with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model is found to reproduce the observations reasonably well. It shows that O3-rich air is entrained by the outer streamlines of the

  7. The effect of the Asian Monsoon to the atmospheric boundary layer over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maoshan; Su, Zhongbo; Chen, Xuelong; Zheng, Donghai; Sun, Fanglin; Ma, Yaoming; Hu, Zeyong

    2016-04-01

    needed temporal and spatial coupling and means for validation of mesoscale model simulations (Zhong et al., 2009, 2011). When these time series are integrated into energy balance analyses methods (Su, 2002, 2005) with reanalysis data, plateau scale diurnal radiative and turbulence fluxes can be generated (Oku et al., 2005; Su et al., 2010) for the study of the boundary layer atmospheric structures at plateau scale. As such regional land-atmosphere feedbacks and atmospheric boundary layer structures can be studied. The quantification of the multi-scale atmospheric boundary layer and land surface processes over the heterogeneous underlying surface of the Tibetan Plateau is a challenging problem that remains unsettled despite many years of efforts. Using field observation, truth investigation, land surface process parameterization and meso-scale simulation, the dynamical and thermal uniform function of the atmospheric boundary layer and its effect to the atmospheric boundary layer will be analyzed in this research. Results The different characteristics of the Boundary layer with Asia monsoon season exchange over TP The height of atmospheric boundary layer was higher before monsoon season than it in summer. It was around 3-4 km above the ground in spring, while it was 1-2 km during monsoon season. It due to sensible heat flux was stronger in spring than it in summer. Using wavelet analysis method, we decomposed the wind include horizontal and vertical velocity from radiosounding observational data. The reason of high boundary layer height was disclosed. Compared to the observation, the output of model was underestimation during spring, while it was reasonable in summer monsoon. The effect of the Asian Monsoon to the precipitation on the TP Numerical simulation of climate on the TP was implemented for the whole year of 2008 using WRF-Noah model. The output of the WRF model is compared to TRMM data set for precipitation and ERA-interim land product for soil moisture. Modeled

  8. Why do global climate models struggle to represent low-level clouds in the West African summer monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Hannak, Lisa; Fink, Andreas H.; Kniffka, Anke; Pante, Gregor

    2017-04-01

    Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5-10°N, 8°W-8°E) during July-September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has so far received little attention. These clouds usually form during the night near the level of the nocturnal low-level jet ( 950 hPa), thicken and spread until the mid-morning ( 09 UTC), and then break up and rise in the course of the day, typically to about 850 hPa. The low thermal contrast to the surface and the frequent presence of obscuring higher-level clouds make detection of the low-level clouds from space rather challenging. Here we use 30 years of output from 18 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as well as 20 years of output from 8 models participating in the Year of Tropical Convection (YoTC) experiments to identify cloud biases and their causes. A great advantage of the YoTC dataset is the 6-hourly output frequency, which allows an analysis of the diurnal cycle, and the availability of temperature and moisture tendencies from parameterized processes such as convection, radiation and boundary-layer turbulence. A comparison to earlier analyses based on CMIP3 output reveals rather limited improvements with regard to the represenation of low-level cloud and winds. Compared to ERA-Interim re-analyses, which shows satisfactory agreement with surface observations, many of the CMIP5 and YoTC models still have large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear due to concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent

  9. Evidence of Himalayan uplift as seen in Neogene records of Indian monsoon variability from ODP Hole 722B, NW Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthusamy, Prakasam; Gupta, Anil K.; Saini, Naresh K.

    2013-04-01

    The Indian monsoon is one of the most interesting climatic features on Earth impacting most populous countries of South and East Asia. It is marked by seasonal reversals of wind direction with southwesterly winds in summer (June-September) and northeasterly winds in winter (December-February). The monsoon not only impacts socioeconomic conditions of Asia but also brings important changes in fauna and flora, ocean upwelling and primary productivity in the Arabian Sea. The Himalaya has undergone several phases of rapid uplift and exhumation since the early Miocene which led to major intensification of the Indian monsoon. The monsoon is driven by the thermal contrast between land and sea, and is intimately linked with the latitudinal movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The effect of Indian monsoon variability and the Himalayan uplift can be seen in numerous proxy records across the region. In this study we discussed about the Indian monsoon intensification and the Himalayan uplift since the early Miocene based on multi proxy records such as planktic foraminiferal relative abundances (Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and mixed layer species), total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3 and elemental data from ODP Hole 722B (2028 mbsf), northwestern Arabian Sea. The TOC, CaCO3 and elemental variations of the ODP Hole 722B suggest multi phase of monsoonal intensification and Himalayan uplifts. Our results suggest that in the early Miocene (23.03 Ma) to ~15Ma, the wind strength and productivity were low. A major change is observed at ~15 Ma, during which time numerous proxies show abrupt changes. TOC, CaCO3 and Elemental analyses results reveal that a major change in the productivity, wind strength and chemical weathering starts around 15 Ma and extends up to 10 Ma. This suggests that a major Himalayan uplift occurred during ~15-10 Ma that drove Indian monsoon intensification. A similar change is also observed during 5 to 1 Ma. These long

  10. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian

    2014-06-02

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  11. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian; Wei, Jiangfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

    2014-01-01

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  12. Environmental status of groundwater affected by chromite ore processing residue (COPR) dumpsites during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matern, Katrin; Weigand, Harald; Singh, Abhas; Mansfeldt, Tim

    2017-02-01

    Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is generated by the roasting of chromite ores for the extraction of chromium. Leaching of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) from COPR dumpsites and contamination of groundwater is a key environmental risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate Cr(VI) contamination in groundwater in the vicinity of three COPR disposal sites in Uttar Pradesh, India, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Groundwater samples (n = 57 pre-monsoon, n = 70 monsoon) were taken in 2014 and analyzed for Cr(VI) and relevant hydrochemical parameters. The site-specific ranges of Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater were Rania), <0.005 to 115 mg L -1 (Chhiwali), and <0.005 to 2.0 mg L -1 (Godhrauli). Maximum levels of Cr(VI) were found close to the COPR dumpsites and significantly exceeded safe drinking water limits (0.05 mg L -1 ). No significant dependence of Cr(VI) concentration on monsoons was observed.

  13. Teleconnection among Asian Summer Monsoon, ENSO and PDO revealed by instrumental and historic records as well as an annual resolution stalagmite record from Lianhua Cave, northwestern Hunan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H.; Yin, J.; Yuan, D.; Li, T.

    2013-12-01

    A 33-cm long aragonite stalagmite, LHN-1, from Lianhua Cave (29°09'N, 109°33'E , 459m a.s.l.) in NW Hunan Province of China has been dated by ICP-MS 230Th/U method. The 14 230Th/U dates with less than ×37 years uncertainties yield excellent chronology, showing that the stalagmite grew continuously over the past 3400 years. The 0.1-mm sampling interval for stable isotope analyses provides annual resolution δ18O and δ13C records of the LHN-1 stalagmite. Up-to-dated, a total of 887 measurements for δ18O and δ13C have been made, which reveal detailed monsoonal climatic changes during the past 1000 years. The average values of δ18O and δ13C are -5.83 (‰, PDB) and -3.29 (‰, PDB), respectively. For the youngest part of the δ18O record, we have compared with the instrumentally meteorological records and historical dryness/wetness indexes from the studying area, indicating that stalagmite δ18O on annual-to-decadal scales reflects mainly rainfall change in the monsoonal area, with lighter δ18O reflecting wetter condition. The comparison of the δ18O with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index since AD 1850 adopted by IPCC (2007) illustrates that lighter stalagmite δ18O corresponds to stronger EASM. Taking the average δ18O value of the 1000-yr record as an average climatic condition, we have found that the δ18O values during AD 1050~1100, 1125~1225, 1300~1350, 1430~1630 and 1900~1960 are lighter than the average, reflecting stronger EASM and wetter condition. The δ18O values during AD 1100~1125, 1225~1300, 1350~1430, 1630~1900 and 1960 to the present are heavier than the average, indicating weak EASM and drier condition. On decadal-to-centennial scales, the δ13C variations generally follow that of δ18O which probably demonstrates that vegetation above the cave controls the δ13C variations. Further comparisons of the δ18O, EASM, ENSO and PDO show that a negative SOI (El Nino phase) correlates warm PDO phase and higher N. Pacific pressure, resulting

  14. On breaks of the Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. ... (Earth Planet. Sci.), 112 .... be useful to define the break monsoon (and active ... monsoon zone, different scientists have used the.

  15. Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

    2014-05-01

    Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

  16. The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogata, Tomomichi; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Mizuta, Ryo; Yoshida, Kohei; Osamu Arakawa

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5-20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity.

  17. Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Joseph G; Ludlow, Francis; Stine, Alexander R; Boos, William R; Sigl, Michael; Marlon, Jennifer R

    2017-10-17

    Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE).

  18. The modulation of Tibetan Plateau heating on the multi-scale northernmost margin activity of East Asia summer monsoon in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Liu, Chen; Chen, Haishan

    2018-02-01

    The northernmost margin of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) could well reflect wet/dry climate variability in the EASM marginal zone (northern China). The study shows that EASM occurs in northern China from Meiyu period to midsummer, and it is also the advancing period of the northern margin of EASM (NMEASM) before the 43rd pentad. NMEASM activity exhibits multi-scale variability, at cycles of 2-3-yr, 4-6-yr and 9-12-yr, which respond not only to EASM intensity but also to westerly circulation anomaly, exhibiting the mid-latitude Eurasian waves and the high-latitude Eurasian teleconnection (EU) patterns. The positive anomalies of Silk Road pattern and EU pattern in recent two decades contribute to the enhanced west-ridge and east-trough anomaly around 120°E over northern China, leading to divergence of moisture flux and north wind anomaly, which is helpful for southward western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and southward NMEASM. Negative Eurasian pattern along subtropical Jet leads to anticyclone anomaly over south of the Yangtze River, deep trough and north wind anomaly along the west coast of the subtropical Pacific, contributing to southward WPSH and NMEASM at the cycle of 4-6-yr. Remote forcing sources of these anomalous Eurasian waves include North Europe, north of Caspian Sea, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau and the west of Lake Baikal; the south of Lake Baikal is a local forcing region. The Tibetan Plateau heating and snow cover could modulate Eurasian wave pattern at multi-scale, which could be used as prediction reference of multi-scale NMEASM.

  19. Onset, active and break periods of the Australian monsoon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaik, Hakeem A; Cleland, Samuel J

    2010-01-01

    Four operational techniques of monsoon monitoring the Australian monsoon at Darwin have been developed in the Darwin Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. Two techniques used the rainfall only criteria and look into the onset of wet season rainfall/monsoon rainfall. The other two techniques are based purely on Darwin wind data. The data used for the study ranges from 14 to 21 years. The main purpose of the study is to develop near-real time monitoring tools for the Australian monsoon at Darwin. The average date of onset of the monsoon ranges from 19 December to 30 December. The average date of monsoon onset is 28 December. In eleven out of twenty-one years the onset date remained within three days range between the two rainfall techniques, whereas it is eleven out of fourteen years between the wind techniques. The median number of active monsoon spells in a wet season is 3 for the rainfall techniques and 6 for the wind techniques. The average length of each active monsoon spell is around 4 days for all of the techniques. The date of onset of the monsoon has shown negative correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that is late onset is found to occur in El Nino years while early onset is more likely in La Nina years.

  20. Wind profiler observations of a monsoon low-level jet over a tropical Indian station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. R. Kalapureddy

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Three-year high-resolution wind observations of the wind profiler have been utilized to characterize the diurnal and seasonal features of the monsoon Low-Level Jet (LLJ over a tropical station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, with a focus on the diurnal variability of low-level winds. The Boreal summer monsoon winds show a conspicuously strong westerly LLJ with average wind speed exceeding 20 m s−1. The L-band wind profiler measurements have shown an advantage of better height and time resolutions over the conventional radiosonde method for diurnal wind measurements. An interesting diurnal oscillation of LLJ core has been observed. It is varying in the height range of 1.8±0.6 km with the maximum and minimum intensity noticed during the early morning and afternoon hours, respectively. The jet core (wind maxima height is observed to coincide with the inversion height. Strong wind shears are normally located beneath the LLJ core. The sole wind profiler observations are capable of identifying the monsoon phases, such as onset, break and active spells, etc. The mutual influence between the LLJ and the boundary layer has been discussed. One notices that the observed LLJ diurnal structures depend on the local convective activity, wind shears and turbulence activity associated with boundary layer winds. The day-to-day change in the LLJ structure depends on the latitudinal position of the LLJ core.