Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

Science.gov (United States)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

[The research protocol VI: How to choose the appropriate statistical test. Inferential statistics].

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Ruiz, Eric; Miranda-Novales, María Guadalupe; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel

2017-01-01

The statistical analysis can be divided in two main components: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. An inference is to elaborate conclusions from the tests performed with the data obtained from a sample of a population. Statistical tests are used in order to establish the probability that a conclusion obtained from a sample is applicable to the population from which it was obtained. However, choosing the appropriate statistical test in general poses a challenge for novice researchers. To choose the statistical test it is necessary to take into account three aspects: the research design, the number of measurements and the scale of measurement of the variables. Statistical tests are divided into two sets, parametric and nonparametric. Parametric tests can only be used if the data show a normal distribution. Choosing the right statistical test will make it easier for readers to understand and apply the results.

The research protocol VI: How to choose the appropriate statistical test. Inferential statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Flores-Ruiz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The statistical analysis can be divided in two main components: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. An inference is to elaborate conclusions from the tests performed with the data obtained from a sample of a population. Statistical tests are used in order to establish the probability that a conclusion obtained from a sample is applicable to the population from which it was obtained. However, choosing the appropriate statistical test in general poses a challenge for novice researchers. To choose the statistical test it is necessary to take into account three aspects: the research design, the number of measurements and the scale of measurement of the variables. Statistical tests are divided into two sets, parametric and nonparametric. Parametric tests can only be used if the data show a normal distribution. Choosing the right statistical test will make it easier for readers to understand and apply the results.

Polarimetric Segmentation Using Wishart Test Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skriver, Henning; Schou, Jesper; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

2002-01-01

A newly developed test statistic for equality of two complex covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution and an associated asymptotic probability for the test statistic has been used in a segmentation algorithm. The segmentation algorithm is based on the MUM (merge using moments......) approach, which is a merging algorithm for single channel SAR images. The polarimetric version described in this paper uses the above-mentioned test statistic for merging. The segmentation algorithm has been applied to polarimetric SAR data from the Danish dual-frequency, airborne polarimetric SAR, EMISAR...

Statistical distributions of optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tang Jiaowei

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The inference of homology from statistically significant sequence similarity is a central issue in sequence alignments. So far the statistical distribution function underlying the optimal global alignments has not been completely determined. Results In this study, random and real but unrelated sequences prepared in six different ways were selected as reference datasets to obtain their respective statistical distributions of global alignment scores. All alignments were carried out with the Needleman-Wunsch algorithm and optimal scores were fitted to the Gumbel, normal and gamma distributions respectively. The three-parameter gamma distribution performs the best as the theoretical distribution function of global alignment scores, as it agrees perfectly well with the distribution of alignment scores. The normal distribution also agrees well with the score distribution frequencies when the shape parameter of the gamma distribution is sufficiently large, for this is the scenario when the normal distribution can be viewed as an approximation of the gamma distribution. Conclusion We have shown that the optimal global alignment scores of random protein sequences fit the three-parameter gamma distribution function. This would be useful for the inference of homology between sequences whose relationship is unknown, through the evaluation of gamma distribution significance between sequences.

A simplification of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The traditional likelihood ratio test statistic for testing hypothesis about goodness of fit of multinomial probabilities in one, two and multi – dimensional contingency table was simplified. Advantageously, using the simplified version of the statistic to test the null hypothesis is easier and faster because calculating the expected ...

Statistics-Based Compression of Global Wind Fields

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong

2017-02-07

Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spatially varying parameters based on large-scale geographical descriptors such as altitude to better account for different regimes across the Earth\\'s orography. We consider a multi-step conditional likelihood approach to estimate the parameters that explicitly accounts for nonstationary features while also balancing memory storage and distributed computation. We apply the proposed model to more than 18 million points of yearly global wind speed. The proposed SG requires orders of magnitude less storage for generating surrogate ensemble members from wind than does creating additional wind fields from the climate model, even if an effective lossy data compression algorithm is applied to the simulation output.

Statistics-Based Compression of Global Wind Fields

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong; Castruccio, Stefano; Crippa, Paola; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spatially varying parameters based on large-scale geographical descriptors such as altitude to better account for different regimes across the Earth's orography. We consider a multi-step conditional likelihood approach to estimate the parameters that explicitly accounts for nonstationary features while also balancing memory storage and distributed computation. We apply the proposed model to more than 18 million points of yearly global wind speed. The proposed SG requires orders of magnitude less storage for generating surrogate ensemble members from wind than does creating additional wind fields from the climate model, even if an effective lossy data compression algorithm is applied to the simulation output.

Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong

2017-11-28

Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

Explorations in Statistics: Hypothesis Tests and P Values

Science.gov (United States)

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This second installment of "Explorations in Statistics" delves into test statistics and P values, two concepts fundamental to the test of a scientific null hypothesis. The essence of a test statistic is that it compares what…

Robust inference from multiple test statistics via permutations: a better alternative to the single test statistic approach for randomized trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganju, Jitendra; Yu, Xinxin; Ma, Guoguang Julie

2013-01-01

Formal inference in randomized clinical trials is based on controlling the type I error rate associated with a single pre-specified statistic. The deficiency of using just one method of analysis is that it depends on assumptions that may not be met. For robust inference, we propose pre-specifying multiple test statistics and relying on the minimum p-value for testing the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. The null hypothesis associated with the various test statistics is that the treatment groups are indistinguishable. The critical value for hypothesis testing comes from permutation distributions. Rejection of the null hypothesis when the smallest p-value is less than the critical value controls the type I error rate at its designated value. Even if one of the candidate test statistics has low power, the adverse effect on the power of the minimum p-value statistic is not much. Its use is illustrated with examples. We conclude that it is better to rely on the minimum p-value rather than a single statistic particularly when that single statistic is the logrank test, because of the cost and complexity of many survival trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distinguish Dynamic Basic Blocks by Structural Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petit, Matthieu; Gotlieb, Arnaud

Statistical testing aims at generating random test data that respect selected probabilistic properties. A distribution probability is associated with the program input space in order to achieve statistical test purpose: to test the most frequent usage of software or to maximize the probability of...... control flow path) during the test data selection. We implemented this algorithm in a statistical test data generator for Java programs. A first experimental validation is presented...

Cluster Detection Tests in Spatial Epidemiology: A Global Indicator for Performance Assessment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aline Guttmann

Full Text Available In cluster detection of disease, the use of local cluster detection tests (CDTs is current. These methods aim both at locating likely clusters and testing for their statistical significance. New or improved CDTs are regularly proposed to epidemiologists and must be subjected to performance assessment. Because location accuracy has to be considered, performance assessment goes beyond the raw estimation of type I or II errors. As no consensus exists for performance evaluations, heterogeneous methods are used, and therefore studies are rarely comparable. A global indicator of performance, which assesses both spatial accuracy and usual power, would facilitate the exploration of CDTs behaviour and help between-studies comparisons. The Tanimoto coefficient (TC is a well-known measure of similarity that can assess location accuracy but only for one detected cluster. In a simulation study, performance is measured for many tests. From the TC, we here propose two statistics, the averaged TC and the cumulated TC, as indicators able to provide a global overview of CDTs performance for both usual power and location accuracy. We evidence the properties of these two indicators and the superiority of the cumulated TC to assess performance. We tested these indicators to conduct a systematic spatial assessment displayed through performance maps.

Cluster Detection Tests in Spatial Epidemiology: A Global Indicator for Performance Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Guttmann, Aline; Li, Xinran; Feschet, Fabien; Gaudart, Jean; Demongeot, Jacques; Boire, Jean-Yves; Ouchchane, Lemlih

2015-01-01

In cluster detection of disease, the use of local cluster detection tests (CDTs) is current. These methods aim both at locating likely clusters and testing for their statistical significance. New or improved CDTs are regularly proposed to epidemiologists and must be subjected to performance assessment. Because location accuracy has to be considered, performance assessment goes beyond the raw estimation of type I or II errors. As no consensus exists for performance evaluations, heterogeneous methods are used, and therefore studies are rarely comparable. A global indicator of performance, which assesses both spatial accuracy and usual power, would facilitate the exploration of CDTs behaviour and help between-studies comparisons. The Tanimoto coefficient (TC) is a well-known measure of similarity that can assess location accuracy but only for one detected cluster. In a simulation study, performance is measured for many tests. From the TC, we here propose two statistics, the averaged TC and the cumulated TC, as indicators able to provide a global overview of CDTs performance for both usual power and location accuracy. We evidence the properties of these two indicators and the superiority of the cumulated TC to assess performance. We tested these indicators to conduct a systematic spatial assessment displayed through performance maps. PMID:26086911

Globalization, statist political economy, and unsuccessful education reform in South Korea, 1993-2003.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ki Su Kim

2005-02-01

Full Text Available This article examines the relationship between globalization and national education reforms, especially those of educational systems. Instead of exploring the much debated issues of how globalization affects national educational systems and how the nations react by what kinds of systemic education reform, however, it focuses on what such a method often leaves out, viz., the internal conditions of a nation that facilitates or hampers reform efforts. Taking South Korea as an example, it explores that country's unique national context which restricts and even inhibits education reforms. Especially noted here is the established "statist" political economy in education. In the paper's analysis, although South Korea's statist political economy has made a substantial contribution to economic and educational development, it is now considered increasingly unviable as globalization progresses. Nevertheless, the internal conditions, resultant from the previous statist policies, set limits on policy makers' efforts to alter the existing educational system. The analysis suggests that a fuller assessment of globalization's impact upon national educational systems or their reforms requires a perspective which is broad enough to encompass not only the concepts and/or theories of globalization and nation states but also the power relations and ideological setup of individual nations.

Statistical considerations for harmonization of the global multicenter study on reference values.

Science.gov (United States)

Ichihara, Kiyoshi

2014-05-15

The global multicenter study on reference values coordinated by the Committee on Reference Intervals and Decision Limits (C-RIDL) of the IFCC was launched in December 2011, targeting 45 commonly tested analytes with the following objectives: 1) to derive reference intervals (RIs) country by country using a common protocol, and 2) to explore regionality/ethnicity of reference values by aligning test results among the countries. To achieve these objectives, it is crucial to harmonize 1) the protocol for recruitment and sampling, 2) statistical procedures for deriving the RI, and 3) test results through measurement of a panel of sera in common. For harmonized recruitment, very lenient inclusion/exclusion criteria were adopted in view of differences in interpretation of what constitutes healthiness by different cultures and investigators. This policy may require secondary exclusion of individuals according to the standard of each country at the time of deriving RIs. An iterative optimization procedure, called the latent abnormal values exclusion (LAVE) method, can be applied to automate the process of refining the choice of reference individuals. For global comparison of reference values, test results must be harmonized, based on the among-country, pair-wise linear relationships of test values for the panel. Traceability of reference values can be ensured based on values assigned indirectly to the panel through collaborative measurement of certified reference materials. The validity of the adopted strategies is discussed in this article, based on interim results obtained to date from five countries. Special considerations are made for dissociation of RIs by parametric and nonparametric methods and between-country difference in the effect of body mass index on reference values. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simplified Freeman-Tukey test statistics for testing probabilities in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents the simplified version of the Freeman-Tukey test statistic for testing hypothesis about multinomial probabilities in one, two and multidimensional contingency tables that does not require calculating the expected cell frequencies before test of significance. The simplified method established new criteria of ...

Analysis of Preference Data Using Intermediate Test Statistic Abstract

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

2013-06-01

Jun 1, 2013 ... West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research Vol.7 No. 1 June ... Keywords:-Preference data, Friedman statistic, multinomial test statistic, intermediate test statistic. ... new method and consequently a new statistic ...

New Graphical Methods and Test Statistics for Testing Composite Normality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc S. Paolella

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational method is derived, which delivers the test statistic and also a highly accurate p-value approximation, essentially instantaneously. The MSP test is demonstrated to have higher power against asymmetric alternatives than the well-known and powerful Jarque-Bera test. A further size-correct test, based on combining two test statistics, is shown to have yet higher power. The methodology employed is fully general and can be applied to any i.i.d. univariate continuous distribution setting.

Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

2017-05-01

The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

Global aesthetic surgery statistics: a closer look.

Science.gov (United States)

Heidekrueger, Paul I; Juran, S; Ehrl, D; Aung, T; Tanna, N; Broer, P Niclas

2017-08-01

Obtaining quality global statistics about surgical procedures remains an important yet challenging task. The International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ISAPS) reports the total number of surgical and non-surgical procedures performed worldwide on a yearly basis. While providing valuable insight, ISAPS' statistics leave two important factors unaccounted for: (1) the underlying base population, and (2) the number of surgeons performing the procedures. Statistics of the published ISAPS' 'International Survey on Aesthetic/Cosmetic Surgery' were analysed by country, taking into account the underlying national base population according to the official United Nations population estimates. Further, the number of surgeons per country was used to calculate the number of surgeries performed per surgeon. In 2014, based on ISAPS statistics, national surgical procedures ranked in the following order: 1st USA, 2nd Brazil, 3rd South Korea, 4th Mexico, 5th Japan, 6th Germany, 7th Colombia, and 8th France. When considering the size of the underlying national populations, the demand for surgical procedures per 100,000 people changes the overall ranking substantially. It was also found that the rate of surgical procedures per surgeon shows great variation between the responding countries. While the US and Brazil are often quoted as the countries with the highest demand for plastic surgery, according to the presented analysis, other countries surpass these countries in surgical procedures per capita. While data acquisition and quality should be improved in the future, valuable insight regarding the demand for surgical procedures can be gained by taking specific demographic and geographic factors into consideration.

Modified Distribution-Free Goodness-of-Fit Test Statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, So Yeon; Browne, Michael W; Shapiro, Alexander

2018-03-01

Covariance structure analysis and its structural equation modeling extensions have become one of the most widely used methodologies in social sciences such as psychology, education, and economics. An important issue in such analysis is to assess the goodness of fit of a model under analysis. One of the most popular test statistics used in covariance structure analysis is the asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) test statistic introduced by Browne (Br J Math Stat Psychol 37:62-83, 1984). The ADF statistic can be used to test models without any specific distribution assumption (e.g., multivariate normal distribution) of the observed data. Despite its advantage, it has been shown in various empirical studies that unless sample sizes are extremely large, this ADF statistic could perform very poorly in practice. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon and further propose a modified test statistic that improves the performance in samples of realistic size. The proposed statistic deals with the possible ill-conditioning of the involved large-scale covariance matrices.

Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

An, Mark Yuing

1996-01-01

This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2008-01-01

For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

Similar tests and the standardized log likelihood ratio statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jens Ledet

1986-01-01

When testing an affine hypothesis in an exponential family the 'ideal' procedure is to calculate the exact similar test, or an approximation to this, based on the conditional distribution given the minimal sufficient statistic under the null hypothesis. By contrast to this there is a 'primitive......' approach in which the marginal distribution of a test statistic considered and any nuisance parameter appearing in the test statistic is replaced by an estimate. We show here that when using standardized likelihood ratio statistics the 'primitive' procedure is in fact an 'ideal' procedure to order O(n -3...

Two independent pivotal statistics that test location and misspecification and add-up to the Anderson-Rubin statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.

2002-01-01

We extend the novel pivotal statistics for testing the parameters in the instrumental variables regression model. We show that these statistics result from a decomposition of the Anderson-Rubin statistic into two independent pivotal statistics. The first statistic is a score statistic that tests

Statistical assessment of numerous Monte Carlo tallies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiedrowski, Brian C.; Solomon, Clell J.

2011-01-01

Four tests are developed to assess the statistical reliability of collections of tallies that number in thousands or greater. To this end, the relative-variance density function is developed and its moments are studied using simplified, non-transport models. The statistical tests are performed upon the results of MCNP calculations of three different transport test problems and appear to show that the tests are appropriate indicators of global statistical quality. (author)

Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

2013-01-01

controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice......This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... argue that applying statistical significance tests and mechanically adhering to their results are highly problematic and detrimental to critical thinking. We claim that the use of such tests do not provide any advantages in relation to deciding whether differences between citation indicators...

Teaching Statistics in Language Testing Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, James Dean

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the literature on teaching statistics for useful ideas that teachers of language testing courses can draw on and incorporate into their teaching toolkits as they see fit. To those ends, the article addresses eight questions: What is known generally about teaching statistics? Why are students so anxious…

Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

2008-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

2015-01-01

In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

SPSS for applied sciences basic statistical testing

CERN Document Server

Davis, Cole

2013-01-01

This book offers a quick and basic guide to using SPSS and provides a general approach to solving problems using statistical tests. It is both comprehensive in terms of the tests covered and the applied settings it refers to, and yet is short and easy to understand. Whether you are a beginner or an intermediate level test user, this book will help you to analyse different types of data in applied settings. It will also give you the confidence to use other statistical software and to extend your expertise to more specific scientific settings as required.The author does not use mathematical form

A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth-based enumeration tests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; IJzerman-Boon, Pieta C.

This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth-based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are

Global statistics on addictive behaviours: 2014 status report.

Science.gov (United States)

Gowing, Linda R; Ali, Robert L; Allsop, Steve; Marsden, John; Turf, Elizabeth E; West, Robert; Witton, John

2015-06-01

Addictive behaviours are among the greatest scourges on humankind. It is important to estimate the extent of the problem globally and in different geographical regions. Such estimates are available, but there is a need to collate and evaluate these to arrive at the best available synthetic figures. Addiction has commissioned this paper as the first of a series attempting to do this. Online sources of global, regional and national information on prevalence and major harms relating to alcohol use, tobacco use, unsanctioned psychoactive drug use and gambling were identified through expert review and assessed. The primary data sources located were the websites of the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Alberta Gambling Research Institute. Summary statistics were compared with recent publications on the global epidemiology of addictive behaviours. An estimated 4.9% of the world's adult population (240 million people) suffer from alcohol use disorder (7.8% of men and 1.5% of women), with alcohol causing an estimated 257 disability-adjusted life years lost per 100 000 population. An estimated 22.5% of adults in the world (1 billion people) smoke tobacco products (32.0% of men and 7.0% of women). It is estimated that 11% of deaths in males and 6% of deaths in females each year are due to tobacco. Of 'unsanctioned psychoactive drugs', cannabis is the most prevalent at 3.5% globally, with each of the others at gambling are not possible, but in countries where it has been assessed the prevalence is estimated at 1.5%. Tobacco and alcohol use are by far the most prevalent addictive behaviours and cause the large majority of the harm. However, the quality of data on prevalence and addiction-related harms is mostly low, and comparisons between countries and regions must be viewed with caution. There is an urgent need to review the quality of data on which global estimates are made and coordinate efforts to arrive at

Ensuring Positiveness of the Scaled Difference Chi-square Test Statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Satorra, Albert; Bentler, Peter M

2010-06-01

A scaled difference test statistic [Formula: see text] that can be computed from standard software of structural equation models (SEM) by hand calculations was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (2001). The statistic [Formula: see text] is asymptotically equivalent to the scaled difference test statistic T̄(d) introduced in Satorra (2000), which requires more involved computations beyond standard output of SEM software. The test statistic [Formula: see text] has been widely used in practice, but in some applications it is negative due to negativity of its associated scaling correction. Using the implicit function theorem, this note develops an improved scaling correction leading to a new scaled difference statistic T̄(d) that avoids negative chi-square values.

Statistical tests for person misfit in computerized adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Meijer, R.R.; van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith

1998-01-01

Recently, several person-fit statistics have been proposed to detect nonfitting response patterns. This study is designed to generalize an approach followed by Klauer (1995) to an adaptive testing system using the two-parameter logistic model (2PL) as a null model. The approach developed by Klauer

[Clinical research IV. Relevancy of the statistical test chosen].

Science.gov (United States)

Talavera, Juan O; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo

2011-01-01

When we look at the difference between two therapies or the association of a risk factor or prognostic indicator with its outcome, we need to evaluate the accuracy of the result. This assessment is based on a judgment that uses information about the study design and statistical management of the information. This paper specifically mentions the relevance of the statistical test selected. Statistical tests are chosen mainly from two characteristics: the objective of the study and type of variables. The objective can be divided into three test groups: a) those in which you want to show differences between groups or inside a group before and after a maneuver, b) those that seek to show the relationship (correlation) between variables, and c) those that aim to predict an outcome. The types of variables are divided in two: quantitative (continuous and discontinuous) and qualitative (ordinal and dichotomous). For example, if we seek to demonstrate differences in age (quantitative variable) among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with and without neurological disease (two groups), the appropriate test is the "Student t test for independent samples." But if the comparison is about the frequency of females (binomial variable), then the appropriate statistical test is the χ(2).

Analysis of statistical misconception in terms of statistical reasoning

Science.gov (United States)

Maryati, I.; Priatna, N.

2018-05-01

Reasoning skill is needed for everyone to face globalization era, because every person have to be able to manage and use information from all over the world which can be obtained easily. Statistical reasoning skill is the ability to collect, group, process, interpret, and draw conclusion of information. Developing this skill can be done through various levels of education. However, the skill is low because many people assume that statistics is just the ability to count and using formulas and so do students. Students still have negative attitude toward course which is related to research. The purpose of this research is analyzing students’ misconception in descriptive statistic course toward the statistical reasoning skill. The observation was done by analyzing the misconception test result and statistical reasoning skill test; observing the students’ misconception effect toward statistical reasoning skill. The sample of this research was 32 students of math education department who had taken descriptive statistic course. The mean value of misconception test was 49,7 and standard deviation was 10,6 whereas the mean value of statistical reasoning skill test was 51,8 and standard deviation was 8,5. If the minimal value is 65 to state the standard achievement of a course competence, students’ mean value is lower than the standard competence. The result of students’ misconception study emphasized on which sub discussion that should be considered. Based on the assessment result, it was found that students’ misconception happen on this: 1) writing mathematical sentence and symbol well, 2) understanding basic definitions, 3) determining concept that will be used in solving problem. In statistical reasoning skill, the assessment was done to measure reasoning from: 1) data, 2) representation, 3) statistic format, 4) probability, 5) sample, and 6) association.

Policies of Global English Tests: Test-Takers' Perspectives on the IELTS Retake Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, M. Obaidul

2016-01-01

Globalized English proficiency tests such as the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) are increasingly playing the role of gatekeepers in a globalizing world. Although the use of the IELTS as a "policy tool" for making decisions in the areas of study, work and migration impacts on test-takers' lives and life chances, not…

Statistical analysis and planning of multihundred-watt impact tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F. Jr.; Waterman, M.S.

1977-10-01

Modular multihundred-watt (MHW) radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG's) are used as a power source for spacecraft. Due to possible environmental contamination by radioactive materials, numerous tests are required to determine and verify the safety of the RTG. There are results available from 27 fueled MHW impact tests regarding hoop failure, fingerprint failure, and fuel failure. Data from the 27 tests are statistically analyzed for relationships that exist between the test design variables and the failure types. Next, these relationships are used to develop a statistical procedure for planning and conducting either future MHW impact tests or similar tests on other RTG fuel sources. Finally, some conclusions are given

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

Statistical tests to compare motif count exceptionalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vandewalle Vincent

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Finding over- or under-represented motifs in biological sequences is now a common task in genomics. Thanks to p-value calculation for motif counts, exceptional motifs are identified and represent candidate functional motifs. The present work addresses the related question of comparing the exceptionality of one motif in two different sequences. Just comparing the motif count p-values in each sequence is indeed not sufficient to decide if this motif is significantly more exceptional in one sequence compared to the other one. A statistical test is required. Results We develop and analyze two statistical tests, an exact binomial one and an asymptotic likelihood ratio test, to decide whether the exceptionality of a given motif is equivalent or significantly different in two sequences of interest. For that purpose, motif occurrences are modeled by Poisson processes, with a special care for overlapping motifs. Both tests can take the sequence compositions into account. As an illustration, we compare the octamer exceptionalities in the Escherichia coli K-12 backbone versus variable strain-specific loops. Conclusion The exact binomial test is particularly adapted for small counts. For large counts, we advise to use the likelihood ratio test which is asymptotic but strongly correlated with the exact binomial test and very simple to use.

Testing the statistical compatibility of independent data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maltoni, M.; Schwetz, T.

2003-01-01

We discuss a goodness-of-fit method which tests the compatibility between statistically independent data sets. The method gives sensible results even in cases where the χ 2 minima of the individual data sets are very low or when several parameters are fitted to a large number of data points. In particular, it avoids the problem that a possible disagreement between data sets becomes diluted by data points which are insensitive to the crucial parameters. A formal derivation of the probability distribution function for the proposed test statistics is given, based on standard theorems of statistics. The application of the method is illustrated on data from neutrino oscillation experiments, and its complementarity to the standard goodness-of-fit is discussed

BrightStat.com: free statistics online.

Science.gov (United States)

Stricker, Daniel

2008-10-01

Powerful software for statistical analysis is expensive. Here I present BrightStat, a statistical software running on the Internet which is free of charge. BrightStat's goals, its main capabilities and functionalities are outlined. Three different sample runs, a Friedman test, a chi-square test, and a step-wise multiple regression are presented. The results obtained by BrightStat are compared with results computed by SPSS, one of the global leader in providing statistical software, and VassarStats, a collection of scripts for data analysis running on the Internet. Elementary statistics is an inherent part of academic education and BrightStat is an alternative to commercial products.

HOW TO SELECT APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL TEST IN SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir TRAJKOVSKI

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Statistics is mathematical science dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data in order to draw relevant conclusions. Statistics is a form of mathematical analysis that uses quantified models, representations and synopses for a given set of experimental data or real-life studies. The students and young researchers in biomedical sciences and in special education and rehabilitation often declare that they have chosen to enroll that study program because they have lack of knowledge or interest in mathematics. This is a sad statement, but there is much truth in it. The aim of this editorial is to help young researchers to select statistics or statistical techniques and statistical software appropriate for the purposes and conditions of a particular analysis. The most important statistical tests are reviewed in the article. Knowing how to choose right statistical test is an important asset and decision in the research data processing and in the writing of scientific papers. Young researchers and authors should know how to choose and how to use statistical methods. The competent researcher will need knowledge in statistical procedures. That might include an introductory statistics course, and it most certainly includes using a good statistics textbook. For this purpose, there is need to return of Statistics mandatory subject in the curriculum of the Institute of Special Education and Rehabilitation at Faculty of Philosophy in Skopje. Young researchers have a need of additional courses in statistics. They need to train themselves to use statistical software on appropriate way.

Statistical Maps of Ground Magnetic Disturbance Derived from Global Geospace Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rigler, E. J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Electric currents in space are the principal driver of magnetic variations measured at Earth's surface. These in turn induce geoelectric fields that present a natural hazard for technological systems like high-voltage power distribution networks. Modern global geospace models can reasonably simulate large-scale geomagnetic response to solar wind variations, but they are less successful at deterministic predictions of intense localized geomagnetic activity that most impacts technological systems on the ground. Still, recent studies have shown that these models can accurately reproduce the spatial statistical distributions of geomagnetic activity, suggesting that their physics are largely correct. Since the magnetosphere is a largely externally driven system, most model-measurement discrepancies probably arise from uncertain boundary conditions. So, with realistic distributions of solar wind parameters to establish its boundary conditions, we use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) geospace model to build a synthetic multivariate statistical model of gridded ground magnetic disturbance. From this, we analyze the spatial modes of geomagnetic response, regress on available measurements to fill in unsampled locations on the grid, and estimate the global probability distribution of extreme magnetic disturbance. The latter offers a prototype geomagnetic "hazard map", similar to those used to characterize better-known geophysical hazards like earthquakes and floods.

Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

2002-01-01

Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

statistical tests for frequency distribution of mean gravity anomalies

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

1980-03-01

Mar 1, 1980 ... STATISTICAL TESTS FOR FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN. GRAVITY ANOMALIES. By ... approach. Kaula [1,2] discussed the method of applying statistical techniques in the ..... mathematical foundation of physical ...

Understanding the Sampling Distribution and Its Use in Testing Statistical Significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Breunig, Nancy A.

Despite the increasing criticism of statistical significance testing by researchers, particularly in the publication of the 1994 American Psychological Association's style manual, statistical significance test results are still popular in journal articles. For this reason, it remains important to understand the logic of inferential statistics. A…

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosinski, Andrzej S

2013-03-15

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical inferences for bearings life using sudden death test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morariu Cristin-Olimpiu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a calculus method for reliability indicators estimation and a complete statistical inferences for three parameters Weibull distribution of bearings life. Using experimental values regarding the durability of bearings tested on stands by the sudden death tests involves a series of particularities of the estimation using maximum likelihood method and statistical inference accomplishment. The paper detailing these features and also provides an example calculation.

Selecting the most appropriate inferential statistical test for your quantitative research study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bettany-Saltikov, Josette; Whittaker, Victoria Jane

2014-06-01

To discuss the issues and processes relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test. A review of the basic research concepts together with a number of clinical scenarios is used to illustrate this. Quantitative nursing research generally features the use of empirical data which necessitates the selection of both descriptive and statistical tests. Different types of research questions can be answered by different types of research designs, which in turn need to be matched to a specific statistical test(s). Discursive paper. This paper discusses the issues relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test and makes some recommendations as to how these might be dealt with. When conducting empirical quantitative studies, a number of key issues need to be considered. Considerations for selecting the most appropriate statistical tests are discussed and flow charts provided to facilitate this process. When nursing clinicians and researchers conduct quantitative research studies, it is crucial that the most appropriate statistical test is selected to enable valid conclusions to be made. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Testing the Difference of Correlated Agreement Coefficients for Statistical Significance

Science.gov (United States)

Gwet, Kilem L.

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problem of testing the difference between two correlated agreement coefficients for statistical significance. A number of authors have proposed methods for testing the difference between two correlated kappa coefficients, which require either the use of resampling methods or the use of advanced statistical modeling…

A statistical approach to plasma profile analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kardaun, O.J.W.F.; McCarthy, P.J.; Lackner, K.; Riedel, K.S.

1990-05-01

A general statistical approach to the parameterisation and analysis of tokamak profiles is presented. The modelling of the profile dependence on both the radius and the plasma parameters is discussed, and pertinent, classical as well as robust, methods of estimation are reviewed. Special attention is given to statistical tests for discriminating between the various models, and to the construction of confidence intervals for the parameterised profiles and the associated global quantities. The statistical approach is shown to provide a rigorous approach to the empirical testing of plasma profile invariance. (orig.)

Statistical Estimation of Heterogeneities: A New Frontier in Well Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.; Illman, W. A.; Riva, M.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2001-12-01

Well-testing methods have traditionally relied on analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations in relatively simple domains, consisting of one or at most a few units having uniform hydraulic properties. Recently, attention has been shifting toward methods and solutions that would allow one to characterize subsurface heterogeneities in greater detail. On one hand, geostatistical inverse methods are being used to assess the spatial variability of parameters, such as permeability and porosity, on the basis of multiple cross-hole pressure interference tests. On the other hand, analytical solutions are being developed to describe the mean and variance (first and second statistical moments) of flow to a well in a randomly heterogeneous medium. Geostatistical inverse interpretation of cross-hole tests yields a smoothed but detailed "tomographic" image of how parameters actually vary in three-dimensional space, together with corresponding measures of estimation uncertainty. Moment solutions may soon allow one to interpret well tests in terms of statistical parameters such as the mean and variance of log permeability, its spatial autocorrelation and statistical anisotropy. The idea of geostatistical cross-hole tomography is illustrated through pneumatic injection tests conducted in unsaturated fractured tuff at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. The idea of using moment equations to interpret well-tests statistically is illustrated through a recently developed three-dimensional solution for steady state flow to a well in a bounded, randomly heterogeneous, statistically anisotropic aquifer.

MODIS/Aqua Clear Radiance Statistics Indexed to Global Grid 5-Min L2 Swath 10km V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODIS/Aqua Clear Radiance Statistics Indexed to Global Grid 5-Min L2 Swath 10km (MYDCSR_G) provides a variety of statistical measures that characterize observed...

A Third Moment Adjusted Test Statistic for Small Sample Factor Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Johnny; Bentler, Peter M

2012-01-01

Goodness of fit testing in factor analysis is based on the assumption that the test statistic is asymptotically chi-square; but this property may not hold in small samples even when the factors and errors are normally distributed in the population. Robust methods such as Browne's asymptotically distribution-free method and Satorra Bentler's mean scaling statistic were developed under the presumption of non-normality in the factors and errors. This paper finds new application to the case where factors and errors are normally distributed in the population but the skewness of the obtained test statistic is still high due to sampling error in the observed indicators. An extension of Satorra Bentler's statistic is proposed that not only scales the mean but also adjusts the degrees of freedom based on the skewness of the obtained test statistic in order to improve its robustness under small samples. A simple simulation study shows that this third moment adjusted statistic asymptotically performs on par with previously proposed methods, and at a very small sample size offers superior Type I error rates under a properly specified model. Data from Mardia, Kent and Bibby's study of students tested for their ability in five content areas that were either open or closed book were used to illustrate the real-world performance of this statistic.

688,112 statistical results : Content mining psychology articles for statistical test results

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartgerink, C.H.J.

2016-01-01

In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results reported according to the standards prescribed by the American Psychological Association (APA). Articles published by the APA, Springer, Sage, and Taylor & Francis

EVALUATION OF A NEW MEAN SCALED AND MOMENT ADJUSTED TEST STATISTIC FOR SEM.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Xiaoxiao; Bentler, Peter M

2013-01-01

Recently a new mean scaled and skewness adjusted test statistic was developed for evaluating structural equation models in small samples and with potentially nonnormal data, but this statistic has received only limited evaluation. The performance of this statistic is compared to normal theory maximum likelihood and two well-known robust test statistics. A modification to the Satorra-Bentler scaled statistic is developed for the condition that sample size is smaller than degrees of freedom. The behavior of the four test statistics is evaluated with a Monte Carlo confirmatory factor analysis study that varies seven sample sizes and three distributional conditions obtained using Headrick's fifth-order transformation to nonnormality. The new statistic performs badly in most conditions except under the normal distribution. The goodness-of-fit χ(2) test based on maximum-likelihood estimation performed well under normal distributions as well as under a condition of asymptotic robustness. The Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistic performed best overall, while the mean scaled and variance adjusted test statistic outperformed the others at small and moderate sample sizes under certain distributional conditions.

CUSUM-based person-fit statistics for adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith; Meijer, R.R.

2001-01-01

Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be inaccurately estimated. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT),

CUSUM-based person-fit statistics for adaptive testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith; Meijer, R.R.

1999-01-01

Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be estimated inaccurately. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT),

Statistical test of anarchy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gouvea, Andre de; Murayama, Hitoshi

2003-01-01

'Anarchy' is the hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction among the three flavors of neutrinos. It describes the mixing angles as random variables, drawn from well-defined probability distributions dictated by the group Haar measure. We perform a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistical test to verify whether anarchy is consistent with all neutrino data, including the new result presented by KamLAND. We find a KS probability for Nature's choice of mixing angles equal to 64%, quite consistent with the anarchical hypothesis. In turn, assuming that anarchy is indeed correct, we compute lower bounds on vertical bar U e3 vertical bar 2 , the remaining unknown 'angle' of the leptonic mixing matrix

Corrections of the NIST Statistical Test Suite for Randomness

OpenAIRE

Kim, Song-Ju; Umeno, Ken; Hasegawa, Akio

2004-01-01

It is well known that the NIST statistical test suite was used for the evaluation of AES candidate algorithms. We have found that the test setting of Discrete Fourier Transform test and Lempel-Ziv test of this test suite are wrong. We give four corrections of mistakes in the test settings. This suggests that re-evaluation of the test results should be needed.

Statistical alignment: computational properties, homology testing and goodness-of-fit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hein, J; Wiuf, Carsten; Møller, Martin

2000-01-01

The model of insertions and deletions in biological sequences, first formulated by Thorne, Kishino, and Felsenstein in 1991 (the TKF91 model), provides a basis for performing alignment within a statistical framework. Here we investigate this model.Firstly, we show how to accelerate the statistical...... alignment algorithms several orders of magnitude. The main innovations are to confine likelihood calculations to a band close to the similarity based alignment, to get good initial guesses of the evolutionary parameters and to apply an efficient numerical optimisation algorithm for finding the maximum...... analysis.Secondly, we propose a new homology test based on this model, where homology means that an ancestor to a sequence pair can be found finitely far back in time. This test has statistical advantages relative to the traditional shuffle test for proteins.Finally, we describe a goodness-of-fit test...

Statistical treatment of fatigue test data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raske, D.T.

1980-01-01

This report discussed several aspects of fatigue data analysis in order to provide a basis for the development of statistically sound design curves. Included is a discussion on the choice of the dependent variable, the assumptions associated with least squares regression models, the variability of fatigue data, the treatment of data from suspended tests and outlying observations, and various strain-life relations

Statistical Modelling of Global Tectonic Activity and some Physical Consequences of its Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konstantin Statnikov

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Based on the analysis of global earthquake data bank for the last thirty years, a global tectonic activity indicator was proposed comprising a weekly globally averaged mean earthquake magnitude value. It was shown that 84% of indicator variability is a harmonic oscillation with a fundamental period of 37.2 years, twice the maximum period in the tidal oscillation spectrum (18.6 years. From this observation, a conclusion was drawn that parametric resonance (PR exists between global tectonic activity and low-frequency tides. The conclusion was also confirmed by the existence of the statistically significant PR response at the second lowest tidal frequency i.e. 182.6 days. It was shown that the global earthquake flow, with a determination factor 93%, is a sum of two Gaussian streams, nearly equally intense, with mean values of 23 and 83 events per week and standard deviations of 9 and 30 events per week, respectively. The Earth periphery to 'mean time interval between earthquakes' ratios in the first and the second flow modes described above match, by the order of magnitude, the sound velocity in the fluid (~1500 m/s and in elastic medium (5500 m/s.

Comparing statistical tests for detecting soil contamination greater than background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardin, J.W.; Gilbert, R.O.

1993-12-01

The Washington State Department of Ecology (WSDE) recently issued a report that provides guidance on statistical issues regarding investigation and cleanup of soil and groundwater contamination under the Model Toxics Control Act Cleanup Regulation. Included in the report are procedures for determining a background-based cleanup standard and for conducting a 3-step statistical test procedure to decide if a site is contaminated greater than the background standard. The guidance specifies that the State test should only be used if the background and site data are lognormally distributed. The guidance in WSDE allows for using alternative tests on a site-specific basis if prior approval is obtained from WSDE. This report presents the results of a Monte Carlo computer simulation study conducted to evaluate the performance of the State test and several alternative tests for various contamination scenarios (background and site data distributions). The primary test performance criteria are (1) the probability the test will indicate that a contaminated site is indeed contaminated, and (2) the probability that the test will indicate an uncontaminated site is contaminated. The simulation study was conducted assuming the background concentrations were from lognormal or Weibull distributions. The site data were drawn from distributions selected to represent various contamination scenarios. The statistical tests studied are the State test, t test, Satterthwaite's t test, five distribution-free tests, and several tandem tests (wherein two or more tests are conducted using the same data set)

Global health business: the production and performativity of statistics in Sierra Leone and Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Susan L

2012-01-01

The global push for health statistics and electronic digital health information systems is about more than tracking health incidence and prevalence. It is also experienced on the ground as means to develop and maintain particular norms of health business, knowledge, and decision- and profit-making that are not innocent. Statistics make possible audit and accountability logics that undergird the management of health at a distance and that are increasingly necessary to the business of health. Health statistics are inextricable from their social milieus, yet as business artifacts they operate as if they are freely formed, objectively originated, and accurate. This article explicates health statistics as cultural forms and shows how they have been produced and performed in two very different countries: Sierra Leone and Germany. In both familiar and surprising ways, this article shows how statistics and their pursuit organize and discipline human behavior, constitute subject positions, and reify existing relations of power.

Testing and qualification of confidence in statistical procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serghiuta, D.; Tholammakkil, J.; Hammouda, N. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada); O' Hagan, A. [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom)

2014-07-01

This paper discusses a framework for designing artificial test problems, evaluation criteria, and two of the benchmark tests developed under a research project initiated by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to investigate the approaches for qualification of tolerance limit methods and algorithms proposed for application in optimization of CANDU regional/neutron overpower protection trip setpoints for aged conditions. A significant component of this investigation has been the development of a series of benchmark problems of gradually increased complexity, from simple 'theoretical' problems up to complex problems closer to the real application. The first benchmark problem discussed in this paper is a simplified scalar problem which does not involve extremal, maximum or minimum, operations, typically encountered in the real applications. The second benchmark is a high dimensional, but still simple, problem for statistical inference of maximum channel power during normal operation. Bayesian algorithms have been developed for each benchmark problem to provide an independent way of constructing tolerance limits from the same data and allow assessing how well different methods make use of those data and, depending on the type of application, evaluating what the level of 'conservatism' is. The Bayesian method is not, however, used as a reference method, or 'gold' standard, but simply as an independent review method. The approach and the tests developed can be used as a starting point for developing a generic suite (generic in the sense of potentially applying whatever the proposed statistical method) of empirical studies, with clear criteria for passing those tests. Some lessons learned, in particular concerning the need to assure the completeness of the description of the application and the role of completeness of input information, are also discussed. It is concluded that a formal process which includes extended and detailed benchmark

Test for the statistical significance of differences between ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.; Kronman, H.B.

1979-01-01

A test for the statistical significance of observed differences between two measured Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves has been designed and evaluated. The set of observer response data for each ROC curve is assumed to be independent and to arise from a ROC curve having a form which, in the absence of statistical fluctuations in the response data, graphs as a straight line on double normal-deviate axes. To test the significance of an apparent difference between two measured ROC curves, maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters of each curve and the associated parameter variances and covariance are calculated from the corresponding set of observer response data. An approximate Chi-square statistic with two degrees of freedom is then constructed from the differences between the parameters estimated for each ROC curve and from the variances and covariances of these estimates. This statistic is known to be truly Chi-square distributed only in the limit of large numbers of trials in the observer performance experiments. Performance of the statistic for data arising from a limited number of experimental trials was evaluated. Independent sets of rating scale data arising from the same underlying ROC curve were paired, and the fraction of differences found (falsely) significant was compared to the significance level, α, used with the test. Although test performance was found to be somewhat dependent on both the number of trials in the data and the position of the underlying ROC curve in the ROC space, the results for various significance levels showed the test to be reliable under practical experimental conditions

Accelerated testing statistical models, test plans, and data analysis

CERN Document Server

Nelson, Wayne B

2009-01-01

The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "". . . a goldmine of knowledge on accelerated life testing principles and practices . . . one of the very few capable of advancing the science of reliability. It definitely belongs in every bookshelf on engineering.""-Dev G.

Normality Tests for Statistical Analysis: A Guide for Non-Statisticians

Science.gov (United States)

Ghasemi, Asghar; Zahediasl, Saleh

2012-01-01

Statistical errors are common in scientific literature and about 50% of the published articles have at least one error. The assumption of normality needs to be checked for many statistical procedures, namely parametric tests, because their validity depends on it. The aim of this commentary is to overview checking for normality in statistical analysis using SPSS. PMID:23843808

Comparison of small n statistical tests of differential expression applied to microarrays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Anna Y

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays provide data for genome wide patterns of expression between observation classes. Microarray studies often have small samples sizes, however, due to cost constraints or specimen availability. This can lead to poor random error estimates and inaccurate statistical tests of differential expression. We compare the performance of the standard t-test, fold change, and four small n statistical test methods designed to circumvent these problems. We report results of various normalization methods for empirical microarray data and of various random error models for simulated data. Results Three Empirical Bayes methods (CyberT, BRB, and limma t-statistics were the most effective statistical tests across simulated and both 2-colour cDNA and Affymetrix experimental data. The CyberT regularized t-statistic in particular was able to maintain expected false positive rates with simulated data showing high variances at low gene intensities, although at the cost of low true positive rates. The Local Pooled Error (LPE test introduced a bias that lowered false positive rates below theoretically expected values and had lower power relative to the top performers. The standard two-sample t-test and fold change were also found to be sub-optimal for detecting differentially expressed genes. The generalized log transformation was shown to be beneficial in improving results with certain data sets, in particular high variance cDNA data. Conclusion Pre-processing of data influences performance and the proper combination of pre-processing and statistical testing is necessary for obtaining the best results. All three Empirical Bayes methods assessed in our study are good choices for statistical tests for small n microarray studies for both Affymetrix and cDNA data. Choice of method for a particular study will depend on software and normalization preferences.

A critique of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somik Raha

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Many have documented the difficulty of using the current paradigm of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs to test and validate the effectiveness of alternative medical systems such as Ayurveda. This paper critiques the applicability of RCTs for all clinical knowledge-seeking endeavors, of which Ayurveda research is a part. This is done by examining statistical hypothesis testing, the underlying foundation of RCTs, from a practical and philosophical perspective. In the philosophical critique, the two main worldviews of probability are that of the Bayesian and the frequentist. The frequentist worldview is a special case of the Bayesian worldview requiring the unrealistic assumptions of knowing nothing about the universe and believing that all observations are unrelated to each other. Many have claimed that the first belief is necessary for science, and this claim is debunked by comparing variations in learning with different prior beliefs. Moving beyond the Bayesian and frequentist worldviews, the notion of hypothesis testing itself is challenged on the grounds that a hypothesis is an unclear distinction, and assigning a probability on an unclear distinction is an exercise that does not lead to clarity of action. This critique is of the theory itself and not any particular application of statistical hypothesis testing. A decision-making frame is proposed as a way of both addressing this critique and transcending ideological debates on probability. An example of a Bayesian decision-making approach is shown as an alternative to statistical hypothesis testing, utilizing data from a past clinical trial that studied the effect of Aspirin on heart attacks in a sample population of doctors. As a big reason for the prevalence of RCTs in academia is legislation requiring it, the ethics of legislating the use of statistical methods for clinical research is also examined.

Coding and classification in drug statistics – From national to global application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marit Rønning

2009-11-01

Full Text Available  SUMMARYThe Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC classification system and the defined daily dose (DDDwas developed in Norway in the early seventies. The creation of the ATC/DDD methodology was animportant basis for presenting drug utilisation statistics in a sensible way. Norway was in 1977 also thefirst country to publish national drug utilisation statistics from wholesalers on an annual basis. Thecombination of these activities in Norway in the seventies made us a pioneer country in the area of drugutilisation research. Over the years, the use of the ATC/DDD methodology has gradually increased incountries outside Norway. Since 1996, the methodology has been recommended by WHO for use ininternational drug utilisation studies. The WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodologyin Oslo handles the maintenance and development of the ATC/DDD system. The Centre is now responsiblefor the global co-ordination. After nearly 30 years of experience with ATC/DDD, the methodologyhas demonstrated its suitability in drug use research. The main challenge in the coming years is toeducate the users worldwide in how to use the methodology properly.

Statistical test theory for the behavioral sciences

CERN Document Server

de Gruijter, Dato N M

2007-01-01

Since the development of the first intelligence test in the early 20th century, educational and psychological tests have become important measurement techniques to quantify human behavior. Focusing on this ubiquitous yet fruitful area of research, Statistical Test Theory for the Behavioral Sciences provides both a broad overview and a critical survey of assorted testing theories and models used in psychology, education, and other behavioral science fields. Following a logical progression from basic concepts to more advanced topics, the book first explains classical test theory, covering true score, measurement error, and reliability. It then presents generalizability theory, which provides a framework to deal with various aspects of test scores. In addition, the authors discuss the concept of validity in testing, offering a strategy for evidence-based validity. In the two chapters devoted to item response theory (IRT), the book explores item response models, such as the Rasch model, and applications, incl...

Efficient statistical tests to compare Youden index: accounting for contingency correlation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Fangyao; Xue, Yuqiang; Tan, Ming T; Chen, Pingyan

2015-04-30

Youden index is widely utilized in studies evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests and performance of predictive, prognostic, or risk models. However, both one and two independent sample tests on Youden index have been derived ignoring the dependence (association) between sensitivity and specificity, resulting in potentially misleading findings. Besides, paired sample test on Youden index is currently unavailable. This article develops efficient statistical inference procedures for one sample, independent, and paired sample tests on Youden index by accounting for contingency correlation, namely associations between sensitivity and specificity and paired samples typically represented in contingency tables. For one and two independent sample tests, the variances are estimated by Delta method, and the statistical inference is based on the central limit theory, which are then verified by bootstrap estimates. For paired samples test, we show that the estimated covariance of the two sensitivities and specificities can be represented as a function of kappa statistic so the test can be readily carried out. We then show the remarkable accuracy of the estimated variance using a constrained optimization approach. Simulation is performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the derived tests. The proposed approaches yield more stable type I errors at the nominal level and substantially higher power (efficiency) than does the original Youden's approach. Therefore, the simple explicit large sample solution performs very well. Because we can readily implement the asymptotic and exact bootstrap computation with common software like R, the method is broadly applicable to the evaluation of diagnostic tests and model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New Global Policy Regime Founded on Invalid Statistics? Hanushek, Woessmann, PISA, and Economic Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Komatsu, Hikaru; Rappleye, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Several recent, highly influential comparative studies have made strong statistical claims that improvements on global learning assessments such as PISA will lead to higher GDP growth rates. These claims have provided the primary source of legitimation for policy reforms championed by leading international organisations, most notably the World…

Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

2012-01-01

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

A Modified Jonckheere Test Statistic for Ordered Alternatives in Repeated Measures Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Tül Kübra AKDUR

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this article, a new test based on Jonckheere test [1] for  randomized blocks which have dependent observations within block is presented. A weighted sum for each block statistic rather than the unweighted sum proposed by Jonckheereis included. For Jonckheere type statistics, the main assumption is independency of observations within block. In the case of repeated measures design, the assumption of independence is violated. The weighted Jonckheere type statistic for the situation of dependence for different variance-covariance structure and the situation based on ordered alternative hypothesis structure of each block on the design is used. Also, the proposed statistic is compared to the existing test based on Jonckheere in terms of type I error rates by performing Monte Carlo simulation. For the strong correlations, circular bootstrap version of the proposed Jonckheere test provides lower rates of type I error.

Use of run statistics to validate tensile tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eatherly, W.P.

1981-01-01

In tensile testing of irradiated graphites, it is difficult to assure alignment of sample and train for tensile measurements. By recording location of fractures, run (sequential) statistics can readily detect lack of randomness. The technique is based on partitioning binomial distributions

Your Chi-Square Test Is Statistically Significant: Now What?

Science.gov (United States)

Sharpe, Donald

2015-01-01

Applied researchers have employed chi-square tests for more than one hundred years. This paper addresses the question of how one should follow a statistically significant chi-square test result in order to determine the source of that result. Four approaches were evaluated: calculating residuals, comparing cells, ransacking, and partitioning. Data…

Properties of permutation-based gene tests and controlling type 1 error using a summary statistic based gene test.

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, David M; Blacker, Deborah; Alchawa, Taofik; Ludwig, Kerstin U; Mangold, Elisabeth; Lange, Christoph

2013-11-07

The advent of genome-wide association studies has led to many novel disease-SNP associations, opening the door to focused study on their biological underpinnings. Because of the importance of analyzing these associations, numerous statistical methods have been devoted to them. However, fewer methods have attempted to associate entire genes or genomic regions with outcomes, which is potentially more useful knowledge from a biological perspective and those methods currently implemented are often permutation-based. One property of some permutation-based tests is that their power varies as a function of whether significant markers are in regions of linkage disequilibrium (LD) or not, which we show from a theoretical perspective. We therefore develop two methods for quantifying the degree of association between a genomic region and outcome, both of whose power does not vary as a function of LD structure. One method uses dimension reduction to "filter" redundant information when significant LD exists in the region, while the other, called the summary-statistic test, controls for LD by scaling marker Z-statistics using knowledge of the correlation matrix of markers. An advantage of this latter test is that it does not require the original data, but only their Z-statistics from univariate regressions and an estimate of the correlation structure of markers, and we show how to modify the test to protect the type 1 error rate when the correlation structure of markers is misspecified. We apply these methods to sequence data of oral cleft and compare our results to previously proposed gene tests, in particular permutation-based ones. We evaluate the versatility of the modification of the summary-statistic test since the specification of correlation structure between markers can be inaccurate. We find a significant association in the sequence data between the 8q24 region and oral cleft using our dimension reduction approach and a borderline significant association using the

Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-12-15

A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles.

Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik

2015-01-01

A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles

Evaluating statistical tests on OLAP cubes to compare degree of disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Ordonez, Carlos; Chen, Zhibo

2009-09-01

Statistical tests represent an important technique used to formulate and validate hypotheses on a dataset. They are particularly useful in the medical domain, where hypotheses link disease with medical measurements, risk factors, and treatment. In this paper, we propose to compute parametric statistical tests treating patient records as elements in a multidimensional cube. We introduce a technique that combines dimension lattice traversal and statistical tests to discover significant differences in the degree of disease within pairs of patient groups. In order to understand a cause-effect relationship, we focus on patient group pairs differing in one dimension. We introduce several optimizations to prune the search space, to discover significant group pairs, and to summarize results. We present experiments showing important medical findings and evaluating scalability with medical datasets.

Statistical test for the distribution of galaxies on plates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Lambas, D.

1985-01-01

A statistical test for the distribution of galaxies on plates is presented. We apply the test to synthetic astronomical plates obtained by means of numerical simulation (Garcia Lambas and Sersic 1983) with three different models for the 3-dimensional distribution, comparison with an observational plate, suggest the presence of filamentary structure. (author)

Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fluegel, Alex

2007-02-01

A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.

Assessment of the beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test using statistical process control.

Science.gov (United States)

Cher, Daniel J; Deubner, David C; Kelsh, Michael A; Chapman, Pamela S; Ray, Rose M

2006-10-01

Despite more than 20 years of surveillance and epidemiologic studies using the beryllium blood lymphocyte proliferation test (BeBLPT) as a measure of beryllium sensitization (BeS) and as an aid for diagnosing subclinical chronic beryllium disease (CBD), improvements in specific understanding of the inhalation toxicology of CBD have been limited. Although epidemiologic data suggest that BeS and CBD risks vary by process/work activity, it has proven difficult to reach specific conclusions regarding the dose-response relationship between workplace beryllium exposure and BeS or subclinical CBD. One possible reason for this uncertainty could be misclassification of BeS resulting from variation in BeBLPT testing performance. The reliability of the BeBLPT, a biological assay that measures beryllium sensitization, is unknown. To assess the performance of four laboratories that conducted this test, we used data from a medical surveillance program that offered testing for beryllium sensitization with the BeBLPT. The study population was workers exposed to beryllium at various facilities over a 10-year period (1992-2001). Workers with abnormal results were offered diagnostic workups for CBD. Our analyses used a standard statistical technique, statistical process control (SPC), to evaluate test reliability. The study design involved a repeated measures analysis of BeBLPT results generated from the company-wide, longitudinal testing. Analytical methods included use of (1) statistical process control charts that examined temporal patterns of variation for the stimulation index, a measure of cell reactivity to beryllium; (2) correlation analysis that compared prior perceptions of BeBLPT instability to the statistical measures of test variation; and (3) assessment of the variation in the proportion of missing test results and how time periods with more missing data influenced SPC findings. During the period of this study, all laboratories displayed variation in test results that

Study designs, use of statistical tests, and statistical analysis software choice in 2015: Results from two Pakistani monthly Medline indexed journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, Masood Ali

2017-09-01

Assessment of research articles in terms of study designs used, statistical tests applied and the use of statistical analysis programmes help determine research activity profile and trends in the country. In this descriptive study, all original articles published by Journal of Pakistan Medical Association (JPMA) and Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan (JCPSP), in the year 2015 were reviewed in terms of study designs used, application of statistical tests, and the use of statistical analysis programmes. JPMA and JCPSP published 192 and 128 original articles, respectively, in the year 2015. Results of this study indicate that cross-sectional study design, bivariate inferential statistical analysis entailing comparison between two variables/groups, and use of statistical software programme SPSS to be the most common study design, inferential statistical analysis, and statistical analysis software programmes, respectively. These results echo previously published assessment of these two journals for the year 2014.

Appropriate statistical methods are required to assess diagnostic tests for replacement, add-on, and triage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hayen, Andrew; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les; Bossuyt, Patrick

2010-01-01

To explain which measures of accuracy and which statistical methods should be used in studies to assess the value of a new binary test as a replacement test, an add-on test, or a triage test. Selection and explanation of statistical methods, illustrated with examples. Statistical methods for

A NOTE ON THE CONVENTIONAL OUTLIER DETECTION TEST PROCEDURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JIANFENG GUO

Full Text Available Under the assumption of that the variance-covariance matrix is fully populated, Baarda's w-test is turn out to be completely different from the standardized least-squares residual. Unfortunately, this is not generally recognized. In the limiting case of only one degree of freedom, all the three types of test statistics, including Gaussian normal test, Student's t-test and Pope's Tau-test, will be invalid for identification of outliers: (1 all the squares of the Gaussian normal test statistic coincide with the goodness-of-fit (global test statistic, even for correlated observations. Hence, the failure of the global test implies that all the observations will be flagged as outliers, and thus the Gaussian normal test is inconclusive for localization of outliers; (2 the absolute values of the Tau-test statistic are all exactly equal to one, no matter whether the observations are contaminated. Therefore, the Tau-test cannot work for outlier detection in this situation; and (3 Student's t-test statistics are undefined.

THE ATKINSON INDEX, THE MORAN STATISTIC, AND TESTING EXPONENTIALITY

OpenAIRE

Nao, Mimoto; Ricardas, Zitikis; Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University; Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario

2008-01-01

Constructing tests for exponentiality has been an active and fruitful research area, with numerous applications in engineering, biology and other sciences concerned with life-time data. In the present paper, we construct and investigate powerful tests for exponentiality based on two well known quantities: the Atkinson index and the Moran statistic. We provide an extensive study of the performance of the tests and compare them with those already available in the literature.

The Global Statistical Response of the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, K. R.; Watt, C. E. J.; Mann, I. R.; Jonathan Rae, I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Boyd, A. J.; Forsyth, C. F.; Turner, D. L.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J.

2018-05-01

Using the total radiation belt electron content calculated from Van Allen Probe phase space density, the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms is statistically studied. Using phase space density reduces the impacts of adiabatic changes in the main phase, allowing a separation of adiabatic and nonadiabatic effects and revealing a clear modality and repeatable sequence of events in storm time radiation belt electron dynamics. This sequence exhibits an important first adiabatic invariant (μ)-dependent behavior in the seed (150 MeV/G), relativistic (1,000 MeV/G), and ultrarelativistic (4,000 MeV/G) populations. The outer radiation belt statistically shows an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase of rapid acceleration, while the seed population shows little loss and immediate enhancement. The time sequence of the transition to the acceleration is also strongly μ dependent and occurs at low μ first, appearing to be repeatable from storm to storm.

688,112 statistical results: Content mining psychology articles for statistical test results

OpenAIRE

Hartgerink, C.H.J.

2016-01-01

In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results reported according to the standards prescribed by the American Psychological Association (APA). Articles published by the APA, Springer, Sage, and Taylor & Francis were included (mining from Wiley and Elsevier was actively blocked). As a result of this content mining, 688,112 results from 50,845 articles were extracted. In order to provide a comprehensive set...

Global Tourism. New Volatility, Old Statistics

OpenAIRE

Corti, Alberto

2016-01-01

In 2015 the scenario of global tourism has radically changed. The new scenario has shifted from the approach of the foregoing “closed-circuit” international tourism flows and the creation of different development centres of the tourism economy in the world taking over the global business that was previously in the hands of Europe and North America. The globalisation of tourism is unavoidable and, in many respects, positive. The creation of new tourist destinations and new countries generating...

An Evaluation of the Sniffer Global Optimization Algorithm Using Standard Test Functions

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Roger A. R.; Slaminka, Edward E.

1992-03-01

The performance of Sniffer—a new global optimization algorithm—is compared with that of Simulated Annealing. Using the number of function evaluations as a measure of efficiency, the new algorithm is shown to be significantly better at finding the global minimum of seven standard test functions. Several of the test functions used have many local minima and very steep walls surrounding the global minimum. Such functions are intended to thwart global minimization algorithms.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Testing statistical isotropy in cosmic microwave background polarization maps

Science.gov (United States)

Rath, Pranati K.; Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Panda, Srikanta; Mishra, Debesh D.; Aluri, Pavan K.

2018-04-01

We apply our symmetry based Power tensor technique to test conformity of PLANCK Polarization maps with statistical isotropy. On a wide range of angular scales (l = 40 - 150), our preliminary analysis detects many statistically anisotropic multipoles in foreground cleaned full sky PLANCK polarization maps viz., COMMANDER and NILC. We also study the effect of residual foregrounds that may still be present in the Galactic plane using both common UPB77 polarization mask, as well as the individual component separation method specific polarization masks. However, some of the statistically anisotropic modes still persist, albeit significantly in NILC map. We further probed the data for any coherent alignments across multipoles in several bins from the chosen multipole range.

Decoding β-decay systematics: A global statistical model for β- half-lives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costiris, N. J.; Mavrommatis, E.; Gernoth, K. A.; Clark, J. W.

2009-01-01

Statistical modeling of nuclear data provides a novel approach to nuclear systematics complementary to established theoretical and phenomenological approaches based on quantum theory. Continuing previous studies in which global statistical modeling is pursued within the general framework of machine learning theory, we implement advances in training algorithms designed to improve generalization, in application to the problem of reproducing and predicting the half-lives of nuclear ground states that decay 100% by the β - mode. More specifically, fully connected, multilayer feed-forward artificial neural network models are developed using the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm together with Bayesian regularization and cross-validation. The predictive performance of models emerging from extensive computer experiments is compared with that of traditional microscopic and phenomenological models as well as with the performance of other learning systems, including earlier neural network models as well as the support vector machines recently applied to the same problem. In discussing the results, emphasis is placed on predictions for nuclei that are far from the stability line, and especially those involved in r-process nucleosynthesis. It is found that the new statistical models can match or even surpass the predictive performance of conventional models for β-decay systematics and accordingly should provide a valuable additional tool for exploring the expanding nuclear landscape.

Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

Science.gov (United States)

Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

2018-01-01

Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Statistical Bootstrap Test

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Jon M.; Burke, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

This document describes the data produced by the Statistical Bootstrap Test over the final three Threshold Crossing Event (TCE) deliveries to NExScI: SOC 9.1 (Q1Q16)1 (Tenenbaum et al. 2014), SOC 9.2 (Q1Q17) aka DR242 (Seader et al. 2015), and SOC 9.3 (Q1Q17) aka DR253 (Twicken et al. 2016). The last few years have seen significant improvements in the SOC science data processing pipeline, leading to higher quality light curves and more sensitive transit searches. The statistical bootstrap analysis results presented here and the numerical results archived at NASAs Exoplanet Science Institute (NExScI) bear witness to these software improvements. This document attempts to introduce and describe the main features and differences between these three data sets as a consequence of the software changes.

The Relationship between Test Anxiety and Academic Performance of Students in Vital Statistics Course

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirin Iranfar

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Test anxiety is a common phenomenon among students and is one of the problems of educational system. The present study was conducted to investigate the test anxiety in vital statistics course and its association with academic performance of students at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. This study was descriptive-analytical and the study sample included the students studying in nursing and midwifery, paramedicine and health faculties that had taken vital statistics course and were selected through census method. Sarason questionnaire was used to analyze the test anxiety. Data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings indicated no significant correlation between test anxiety and score of vital statistics course.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: The perils of multiple testing

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2016-01-01

Multiple testing refers to situations where a dataset is subjected to statistical testing multiple times - either at multiple time-points or through multiple subgroups or for multiple end-points. This amplifies the probability of a false-positive finding. In this article, we look at the consequences of multiple testing and explore various methods to deal with this issue. PMID:27141478

Testing statistical self-similarity in the topology of river networks

Science.gov (United States)

Troutman, Brent M.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Gupta, Vijay K.

2010-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated that the topological properties of real river networks deviate significantly from predictions of Shreve's random model. At the same time the property of mean self-similarity postulated by Tokunaga's model is well supported by data. Recently, a new class of network model called random self-similar networks (RSN) that combines self-similarity and randomness has been introduced to replicate important topological features observed in real river networks. We investigate if the hypothesis of statistical self-similarity in the RSN model is supported by data on a set of 30 basins located across the continental United States that encompass a wide range of hydroclimatic variability. We demonstrate that the generators of the RSN model obey a geometric distribution, and self-similarity holds in a statistical sense in 26 of these 30 basins. The parameters describing the distribution of interior and exterior generators are tested to be statistically different and the difference is shown to produce the well-known Hack's law. The inter-basin variability of RSN parameters is found to be statistically significant. We also test generator dependence on two climatic indices, mean annual precipitation and radiative index of dryness. Some indication of climatic influence on the generators is detected, but this influence is not statistically significant with the sample size available. Finally, two key applications of the RSN model to hydrology and geomorphology are briefly discussed.

Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

Evaluation of nitrous oxide as a substitute for sulfur hexafluoride to reduce global warming impacts of ANSI/HPS N13.1 gaseous uniformity testing

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xiao-Ying; Barnett, J. Matthew; Amidan, Brett G.; Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Flaherty, Julia E.; Antonio, Ernest J.; Glissmeyer, John A.

2018-03-01

The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard requires gaseous tracer uniformity testing for sampling associated with stacks used in radioactive air emissions. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a greenhouse gas with a high global warming potential, has long been the gas tracer used in such testing. To reduce the impact of gas tracer tests on the environment, nitrous oxide (N2O) was evaluated as a potential replacement to SF6. The physical evaluation included the development of a test plan to record percent coefficient of variance and the percent maximum deviation between the two gases while considering variables such as fan configuration, injection position, and flow rate. Statistical power was calculated to determine how many sample sets were needed, and computational fluid dynamic modeling was utilized to estimate overall mixing in stacks. Results show there are no significant differences between the behaviors of the two gases, and SF6 modeling corroborated N2O test results. Although, in principle, all tracer gases should behave in an identical manner for measuring mixing within a stack, the series of physical tests guided by statistics was performed to demonstrate the equivalence of N2O testing to SF6 testing in the context of stack qualification tests. The results demonstrate that N2O is a viable choice leading to a four times reduction in global warming impacts for future similar compliance driven testing.

Operational statistical analysis of the results of computer-based testing of students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Виктор Иванович Нардюжев

2018-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the issues of statistical analysis of results of computer-based testing for evaluation of educational achievements of students. The issues are relevant due to the fact that computerbased testing in Russian universities has become an important method for evaluation of educational achievements of students and quality of modern educational process. Usage of modern methods and programs for statistical analysis of results of computer-based testing and assessment of quality of developed tests is an actual problem for every university teacher. The article shows how the authors solve this problem using their own program “StatInfo”. For several years the program has been successfully applied in a credit system of education at such technological stages as loading computerbased testing protocols into a database, formation of queries, generation of reports, lists, and matrices of answers for statistical analysis of quality of test items. Methodology, experience and some results of its usage by university teachers are described in the article. Related topics of a test development, models, algorithms, technologies, and software for large scale computer-based testing has been discussed by the authors in their previous publications which are presented in the reference list.

Parameter estimation and statistical test of geographically weighted bivariate Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko

2017-11-01

Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.

Statistical tests for the Gaussian nature of primordial fluctuations through CBR experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, X.

1994-01-01

Information about the physical processes that generate the primordial fluctuations in the early Universe can be gained by testing the Gaussian nature of the fluctuations through cosmic microwave background radiation (CBR) temperature anisotropy experiments. One of the crucial aspects of density perturbations that are produced by the standard inflation scenario is that they are Gaussian, whereas seeds produced by topological defects left over from an early cosmic phase transition tend to be non-Gaussian. To carry out this test, sophisticated statistical tools are required. In this paper, we will discuss several such statistical tools, including multivariant skewness and kurtosis, Euler-Poincare characteristics, the three-point temperature correlation function, and Hotelling's T 2 statistic defined through bispectral estimates of a one-dimensional data set. The effect of noise present in the current data is discussed in detail and the COBE 53 GHz data set is analyzed. Our analysis shows that, on the large angular scale to which COBE is sensitive, the statistics are probably Gaussian. On the small angular scales, the importance of Hotelling's T 2 statistic is stressed, and the minimum sample size required to test Gaussianity is estimated. Although the current data set available from various experiments at half-degree scales is still too small, improvement of the data set by roughly a factor of 2 will be enough to test the Gaussianity statistically. On the arc min scale, we analyze the recent RING data through bispectral analysis, and the result indicates possible deviation from Gaussianity. Effects of point sources are also discussed. It is pointed out that the Gaussianity problem can be resolved in the near future by ground-based or balloon-borne experiments

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kuan-Man

2006-01-01

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Statistical Redundancy Testing for Improved Gene Selection in Cancer Classification Using Microarray Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Sunil Rao

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In gene selection for cancer classifi cation using microarray data, we define an eigenvalue-ratio statistic to measure a gene’s contribution to the joint discriminability when this gene is included into a set of genes. Based on this eigenvalueratio statistic, we define a novel hypothesis testing for gene statistical redundancy and propose two gene selection methods. Simulation studies illustrate the agreement between statistical redundancy testing and gene selection methods. Real data examples show the proposed gene selection methods can select a compact gene subset which can not only be used to build high quality cancer classifiers but also show biological relevance.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

2010-09-17

It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martens Pim

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Effect of non-normality on test statistics for one-way independent groups designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cribbie, Robert A; Fiksenbaum, Lisa; Keselman, H J; Wilcox, Rand R

2012-02-01

The data obtained from one-way independent groups designs is typically non-normal in form and rarely equally variable across treatment populations (i.e., population variances are heterogeneous). Consequently, the classical test statistic that is used to assess statistical significance (i.e., the analysis of variance F test) typically provides invalid results (e.g., too many Type I errors, reduced power). For this reason, there has been considerable interest in finding a test statistic that is appropriate under conditions of non-normality and variance heterogeneity. Previously recommended procedures for analysing such data include the James test, the Welch test applied either to the usual least squares estimators of central tendency and variability, or the Welch test with robust estimators (i.e., trimmed means and Winsorized variances). A new statistic proposed by Krishnamoorthy, Lu, and Mathew, intended to deal with heterogeneous variances, though not non-normality, uses a parametric bootstrap procedure. In their investigation of the parametric bootstrap test, the authors examined its operating characteristics under limited conditions and did not compare it to the Welch test based on robust estimators. Thus, we investigated how the parametric bootstrap procedure and a modified parametric bootstrap procedure based on trimmed means perform relative to previously recommended procedures when data are non-normal and heterogeneous. The results indicated that the tests based on trimmed means offer the best Type I error control and power when variances are unequal and at least some of the distribution shapes are non-normal. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

A general statistical test for correlations in a finite-length time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Jeffery A; Yang, Haw

2008-06-07

The statistical properties of the autocorrelation function from a time series composed of independently and identically distributed stochastic variables has been studied. Analytical expressions for the autocorrelation function's variance have been derived. It has been found that two common ways of calculating the autocorrelation, moving-average and Fourier transform, exhibit different uncertainty characteristics. For periodic time series, the Fourier transform method is preferred because it gives smaller uncertainties that are uniform through all time lags. Based on these analytical results, a statistically robust method has been proposed to test the existence of correlations in a time series. The statistical test is verified by computer simulations and an application to single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy is discussed.

Statistical testing of association between menstruation and migraine.

Science.gov (United States)

Barra, Mathias; Dahl, Fredrik A; Vetvik, Kjersti G

2015-02-01

To repair and refine a previously proposed method for statistical analysis of association between migraine and menstruation. Menstrually related migraine (MRM) affects about 20% of female migraineurs in the general population. The exact pathophysiological link from menstruation to migraine is hypothesized to be through fluctuations in female reproductive hormones, but the exact mechanisms remain unknown. Therefore, the main diagnostic criterion today is concurrency of migraine attacks with menstruation. Methods aiming to exclude spurious associations are wanted, so that further research into these mechanisms can be performed on a population with a true association. The statistical method is based on a simple two-parameter null model of MRM (which allows for simulation modeling), and Fisher's exact test (with mid-p correction) applied to standard 2 × 2 contingency tables derived from the patients' headache diaries. Our method is a corrected version of a previously published flawed framework. To our best knowledge, no other published methods for establishing a menstruation-migraine association by statistical means exist today. The probabilistic methodology shows good performance when subjected to receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. Quick reference cutoff values for the clinical setting were tabulated for assessing association given a patient's headache history. In this paper, we correct a proposed method for establishing association between menstruation and migraine by statistical methods. We conclude that the proposed standard of 3-cycle observations prior to setting an MRM diagnosis should be extended with at least one perimenstrual window to obtain sufficient information for statistical processing. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Near-exact distributions for the block equicorrelation and equivariance likelihood ratio test statistic

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Carlos A.; Marques, Filipe J.

2013-09-01

In this paper the authors combine the equicorrelation and equivariance test introduced by Wilks [13] with the likelihood ratio test (l.r.t.) for independence of groups of variables to obtain the l.r.t. of block equicorrelation and equivariance. This test or its single block version may find applications in many areas as in psychology, education, medicine, genetics and they are important "in many tests of multivariate analysis, e.g. in MANOVA, Profile Analysis, Growth Curve analysis, etc" [12, 9]. By decomposing the overall hypothesis into the hypotheses of independence of groups of variables and the hypothesis of equicorrelation and equivariance we are able to obtain the expressions for the overall l.r.t. statistic and its moments. From these we obtain a suitable factorization of the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the l.r.t. statistic, which enables us to develop highly manageable and precise near-exact distributions for the test statistic.

Comment on the asymptotics of a distribution-free goodness of fit test statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, Michael W; Shapiro, Alexander

2015-03-01

In a recent article Jennrich and Satorra (Psychometrika 78: 545-552, 2013) showed that a proof by Browne (British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 37: 62-83, 1984) of the asymptotic distribution of a goodness of fit test statistic is incomplete because it fails to prove that the orthogonal component function employed is continuous. Jennrich and Satorra (Psychometrika 78: 545-552, 2013) showed how Browne's proof can be completed satisfactorily but this required the development of an extensive and mathematically sophisticated framework for continuous orthogonal component functions. This short note provides a simple proof of the asymptotic distribution of Browne's (British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 37: 62-83, 1984) test statistic by using an equivalent form of the statistic that does not involve orthogonal component functions and consequently avoids all complicating issues associated with them.

Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Lawrence L.; Maxwell, Katherine A.; Glass, David E.; Vaughn, Wallace L.; Barger, Weston; Cook, Mylan

2016-01-01

The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.

A NEW TEST OF THE STATISTICAL NATURE OF THE BRIGHTEST CLUSTER GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Yen-Ting; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Miller, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

A novel statistic is proposed to examine the hypothesis that all cluster galaxies are drawn from the same luminosity distribution (LD). In such a 'statistical model' of galaxy LD, the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) are simply the statistical extreme of the galaxy population. Using a large sample of nearby clusters, we show that BCGs in high luminosity clusters (e.g., L tot ∼> 4 x 10 11 h -2 70 L sun ) are unlikely (probability ≤3 x 10 -4 ) to be drawn from the LD defined by all red cluster galaxies more luminous than M r = -20. On the other hand, BCGs in less luminous clusters are consistent with being the statistical extreme. Applying our method to the second brightest galaxies, we show that they are consistent with being the statistical extreme, which implies that the BCGs are also distinct from non-BCG luminous, red, cluster galaxies. We point out some issues with the interpretation of the classical tests proposed by Tremaine and Richstone (TR) that are designed to examine the statistical nature of BCGs, investigate the robustness of both our statistical test and those of TR against difficulties in photometry of galaxies of large angular size, and discuss the implication of our findings on surveys that use the luminous red galaxies to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation features in the galaxy power spectrum.

Statistical Requirements For Pass-Fail Testing Of Contraband Detection Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilliam, David M.

2011-01-01

Contraband detection systems for homeland security applications are typically tested for probability of detection (PD) and probability of false alarm (PFA) using pass-fail testing protocols. Test protocols usually require specified values for PD and PFA to be demonstrated at a specified level of statistical confidence CL. Based on a recent more theoretical treatment of this subject [1], this summary reviews the definition of CL and provides formulas and spreadsheet functions for constructing tables of general test requirements and for determining the minimum number of tests required. The formulas and tables in this article may be generally applied to many other applications of pass-fail testing, in addition to testing of contraband detection systems.

P-Value, a true test of statistical significance? a cautionary note ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

While it's not the intention of the founders of significance testing and hypothesis testing to have the two ideas intertwined as if they are complementary, the inconvenient marriage of the two practices into one coherent, convenient, incontrovertible and misinterpreted practice has dotted our standard statistics textbooks and ...

Statistical approach for collaborative tests, reference material certification procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fangmeyer, H.; Haemers, L.; Larisse, J.

1977-01-01

The first part introduces the different aspects in organizing and executing intercomparison tests of chemical or physical quantities. It follows a description of a statistical procedure to handle the data collected in a circular analysis. Finally, an example demonstrates how the tool can be applied and which conclusion can be drawn of the results obtained

A test statistic in the complex Wishart distribution and its application to change detection in polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schou, Jesper

2003-01-01

. Based on this distribution, a test statistic for equality of two such matrices and an associated asymptotic probability for obtaining a smaller value of the test statistic are derived and applied successfully to change detection in polarimetric SAR data. In a case study, EMISAR L-band data from April 17...... to HH, VV, or HV data alone, the derived test statistic reduces to the well-known gamma likelihood-ratio test statistic. The derived test statistic and the associated significance value can be applied as a line or edge detector in fully polarimetric SAR data also....

A study of statistical tests for near-real-time materials accountancy using field test data of Tokai reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ihara, Hitoshi; Nishimura, Hideo; Ikawa, Koji; Miura, Nobuyuki; Iwanaga, Masayuki; Kusano, Toshitsugu.

1988-03-01

An Near-Real-Time Materials Accountancy(NRTA) system had been developed as an advanced safeguards measure for PNC Tokai Reprocessing Plant; a minicomputer system for NRTA data processing was designed and constructed. A full scale field test was carried out as a JASPAS(Japan Support Program for Agency Safeguards) project with the Agency's participation and the NRTA data processing system was used. Using this field test data, investigation of the detection power of a statistical test under real circumstances was carried out for five statistical tests, i.e., a significance test of MUF, CUMUF test, average loss test, MUF residual test and Page's test on MUF residuals. The result shows that the CUMUF test, average loss test, MUF residual test and the Page's test on MUF residual test are useful to detect a significant loss or diversion. An unmeasured inventory estimation model for the PNC reprocessing plant was developed in this study. Using this model, the field test data from the C-1 to 85 - 2 campaigns were re-analyzed. (author)

"What If" Analyses: Ways to Interpret Statistical Significance Test Results Using EXCEL or "R"

Science.gov (United States)

Ozturk, Elif

2012-01-01

The present paper aims to review two motivations to conduct "what if" analyses using Excel and "R" to understand the statistical significance tests through the sample size context. "What if" analyses can be used to teach students what statistical significance tests really do and in applied research either prospectively to estimate what sample size…

Testing statistical significance scores of sequence comparison methods with structure similarity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leunissen Jack AM

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the past years the Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm has gained popularity due to improved implementations and rapidly increasing computing power. However, the quality and sensitivity of a database search is not only determined by the algorithm but also by the statistical significance testing for an alignment. The e-value is the most commonly used statistical validation method for sequence database searching. The CluSTr database and the Protein World database have been created using an alternative statistical significance test: a Z-score based on Monte-Carlo statistics. Several papers have described the superiority of the Z-score as compared to the e-value, using simulated data. We were interested if this could be validated when applied to existing, evolutionary related protein sequences. Results All experiments are performed on the ASTRAL SCOP database. The Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm with both e-value and Z-score statistics is evaluated, using ROC, CVE and AP measures. The BLAST and FASTA algorithms are used as reference. We find that two out of three Smith-Waterman implementations with e-value are better at predicting structural similarities between proteins than the Smith-Waterman implementation with Z-score. SSEARCH especially has very high scores. Conclusion The compute intensive Z-score does not have a clear advantage over the e-value. The Smith-Waterman implementations give generally better results than their heuristic counterparts. We recommend using the SSEARCH algorithm combined with e-values for pairwise sequence comparisons.

Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2011-01-15

Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B.; Muris, C.

2011-01-01

Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.

Finding differentially expressed genes in high dimensional data: Rank based test statistic via a distance measure.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathur, Sunil; Sadana, Ajit

2015-12-01

We present a rank-based test statistic for the identification of differentially expressed genes using a distance measure. The proposed test statistic is highly robust against extreme values and does not assume the distribution of parent population. Simulation studies show that the proposed test is more powerful than some of the commonly used methods, such as paired t-test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and significance analysis of microarray (SAM) under certain non-normal distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic, and the p-value function are discussed. The application of proposed method is shown using a real-life data set. © The Author(s) 2011.

Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients with tumor recurrence using global score test methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zain, Zakiyah, E-mail: zac@uum.edu.my; Ahmad, Yuhaniz, E-mail: yuhaniz@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, UUM Sintok 06010, Kedah (Malaysia); Azwan, Zairul, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Raduan, Farhana, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Sagap, Ismail, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com [Surgery Department, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif, 56000 Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Aziz, Nazrina, E-mail: nazrina@uum.edu.my

2014-12-04

Colorectal cancer is the third and the second most common cancer worldwide in men and women respectively, and the second in Malaysia for both genders. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are among the options available for treatment of patients with colorectal cancer. In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve several responses or endpoints, and this situation complicates the analysis. In the case of colorectal cancer, sets of responses concerned with survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For a patient, the time to recurrence is correlated to the overall survival. In this study, global score test methodology is used in combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each survival endpoint into a single statistic. The data of tumor recurrence and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients are taken from a Malaysian hospital. The results are found to be similar to those computed using the established Wei, Lin and Weissfeld method. Key factors such as ethnic, gender, age and stage at diagnose are also reported.

Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-12-01

For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρDCCA(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1. Here we derive -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρDCCA within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine—and for nonoverlapping windows we derive—that the standard deviation of ρDCCA(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρDCCA(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.

Statistical correlation of structural mode shapes from test measurements and NASTRAN analytical values

Science.gov (United States)

Purves, L.; Strang, R. F.; Dube, M. P.; Alea, P.; Ferragut, N.; Hershfeld, D.

1983-01-01

The software and procedures of a system of programs used to generate a report of the statistical correlation between NASTRAN modal analysis results and physical tests results from modal surveys are described. Topics discussed include: a mathematical description of statistical correlation, a user's guide for generating a statistical correlation report, a programmer's guide describing the organization and functions of individual programs leading to a statistical correlation report, and a set of examples including complete listings of programs, and input and output data.

Determination of Geometrical REVs Based on Volumetric Fracture Intensity and Statistical Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method to estimate a representative element volume (REV of a fractured rock mass based on the volumetric fracture intensity P32 and statistical tests. A 150 m × 80 m × 50 m 3D fracture network model was generated based on field data collected at the Maji dam site by using the rectangular window sampling method. The volumetric fracture intensity P32 of each cube was calculated by varying the cube location in the generated 3D fracture network model and varying the cube side length from 1 to 20 m, and the distribution of the P32 values was described. The size effect and spatial effect of the fractured rock mass were studied; the P32 values from the same cube sizes and different locations were significantly different, and the fluctuation in P32 values clearly decreases as the cube side length increases. In this paper, a new method that comprehensively considers the anisotropy of rock masses, simplicity of calculation and differences between different methods was proposed to estimate the geometrical REV size. The geometrical REV size of the fractured rock mass was determined based on the volumetric fracture intensity P32 and two statistical test methods, namely, the likelihood ratio test and the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test. The results of the two statistical tests were substantially different; critical cube sizes of 13 m and 12 m were estimated by the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test and the likelihood ratio test, respectively. Because the different test methods emphasize different considerations and impact factors, considering a result that these two tests accept, the larger cube size, 13 m, was selected as the geometrical REV size of the fractured rock mass at the Maji dam site in China.

Global dose to man from proposed NNTRP high altitude nuclear tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, K.R.

1975-05-01

Radionuclide measurements from past high altitude nuclear testing have enabled development of a model to estimate surface deposition and doses from 400 kt of fission products injected in winter within the Pacific Test Area at altitudes in excess of 50 km. The largest 30-year average dose to man is about 10 millirem and occurs at 30 0 to 50 0 N latitude. The principal contributor to this dose is external gamma radiation from gross fission products. Individual doses from 90 Sr via the forage-cow-milk pathway and 137 Cs via the pasture-meat pathway are about 1/5 the gross fission product doses. The global 30-year population dose is 3 x 10 7 person-rem, which compares with a 30-year natural background population dose of 1 X 10 10 person-rem. Due in large part to the global distribution of population, over 98 percent of the global person-rem from the proposed high altitude tests is received in the Northern Hemisphere, while about 75 percent of the total population dose occurs within the 30 0 --50 0 N latitude belt. Detonations in summer would decrease the global dose by about a factor of three. (U.S.)

Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Samuelson, Frank; Abbey, Craig

2016-11-01

Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global Cloud-Permiting Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Chidong [Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States)

2016-08-14

Motivated by the success of the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign, which collected unprecedented observations of cloud and precipitation from the tropical Indian Ocean in Octber 2011 – March 2012, this project explored how such observations can be applied to assist the development of global cloud-permitting models through evaluating and correcting model biases in cloud statistics. The main accomplishment of this project were made in four categories: generating observational products for model evaluation, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations to validate global model simulations, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations in numerical studies of cloud-permitting models, and providing leadership in the field. Results from this project provide valuable information for building a seamless bridge between DOE ASR program’s component on process level understanding of cloud processes in the tropics and RGCM focus on global variability and regional extremes. In particular, experience gained from this project would be directly applicable to evaluation and improvements of ACME, especially as it transitions to a non-hydrostatic variable resolution model.

Statistical test data selection for reliability evalution of process computer software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkmann, K.P.; Hoermann, H.; Ehrenberger, W.

1976-01-01

The paper presents a concept for converting knowledge about the characteristics of process states into practicable procedures for the statistical selection of test cases in testing process computer software. Process states are defined as vectors whose components consist of values of input variables lying in discrete positions or within given limits. Two approaches for test data selection, based on knowledge about cases of demand, are outlined referring to a purely probabilistic method and to the mathematics of stratified sampling. (orig.) [de

Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine A Bliss

Full Text Available Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure

Science.gov (United States)

Paek, Insu

2012-01-01

Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…

Refurbish research and test reactors corresponding to global age of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishima, Kaichiro; Oyama, Yukio; Okamoto, Koji; Yamana, Hajime; Yamaguchi, Akira

2011-01-01

This special article featured arguments for refurbishment of research and test reactors corresponding to global age of nuclear energy, based on the report: 'Investigation of research facilities necessary for future joint usage' issued by the special committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) in September 2010. It consisted of six papers titled as 'Introduction-establishment of AESJ special committee for investigation', 'State of research and test reactors in Japan', 'State of overseas research and test reactors', 'Needs analysis for research and test reactors', 'Proposal of AESJ special committee' and 'Summary and future issues'. In order to develop human resources and promote research and development needed in global age of nuclear energy, research and test reactors would be refurbished as an Asian regional center of excellence. (T. Tanaka)

Staging Liver Fibrosis with Statistical Observers

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Jonathan Frieman

Chronic liver disease is a worldwide health problem, and hepatic fibrosis (HF) is one of the hallmarks of the disease. Pathology diagnosis of HF is based on textural change in the liver as a lobular collagen network that develops within portal triads. The scale of collagen lobules is characteristically on order of 1mm, which close to the resolution limit of in vivo Gd-enhanced MRI. In this work the methods to collect training and testing images for a Hotelling observer are covered. An observer based on local texture analysis is trained and tested using wet-tissue phantoms. The technique is used to optimize the MRI sequence based on task performance. The final method developed is a two stage model observer to classify fibrotic and healthy tissue in both phantoms and in vivo MRI images. The first stage observer tests for the presence of local texture. Test statistics from the first observer are used to train the second stage observer to globally sample the local observer results. A decision of the disease class is made for an entire MRI image slice using test statistics collected from the second observer. The techniques are tested on wet-tissue phantoms and in vivo clinical patient data.

Comparison of Statistical Methods for Detector Testing Programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rennie, John Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Abhold, Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-10-14

A typical goal for any detector testing program is to ascertain not only the performance of the detector systems under test, but also the confidence that systems accepted using that testing program’s acceptance criteria will exceed a minimum acceptable performance (which is usually expressed as the minimum acceptable success probability, p). A similar problem often arises in statistics, where we would like to ascertain the fraction, p, of a population of items that possess a property that may take one of two possible values. Typically, the problem is approached by drawing a fixed sample of size n, with the number of items out of n that possess the desired property, x, being termed successes. The sample mean gives an estimate of the population mean p ≈ x/n, although usually it is desirable to accompany such an estimate with a statement concerning the range within which p may fall and the confidence associated with that range. Procedures for establishing such ranges and confidence limits are described in detail by Clopper, Brown, and Agresti for two-sided symmetric confidence intervals.

Jsub(Ic)-testing of A-533 B - statistical evaluation of some different testing techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, F.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to compare statistically some different methods for the evaluation of fracture toughness of the nuclear reactor material A-533 B. Since linear elastic fracture mechanics is not applicable to this material at the interesting temperature (275 0 C), the so-called Jsub(Ic) testing method was employed. Two main difficulties are inherent in this type of testing. The first one is to determine the quantity J as a function of the deflection of the three-point bend specimens used. Three different techniques were used, the first two based on the experimentally observed input of energy to the specimen and the third employing finite element calculations. The second main problem is to determine the point when crack growth begins. For this, two methods were used, a direct electrical method and the indirect R-curve method. A total of forty specimens were tested at two laboratories. No statistically significant different results were obtained from the respective laboratories. The three methods of calculating J yielded somewhat different results, although the discrepancy was small. Also the two methods of determination of the growth initiation point yielded consistent results. The R-curve method, however, exhibited a larger uncertainty as measured by the standard deviation. The resulting Jsub(Ic) value also agreed well with earlier presented results. The relative standard deviation was of the order of 25%, which is quite small for this type of experiment. (author)

Evaluating Two Models of Collaborative Tests in an Online Introductory Statistics Course

Science.gov (United States)

Björnsdóttir, Auðbjörg; Garfield, Joan; Everson, Michelle

2015-01-01

This study explored the use of two different types of collaborative tests in an online introductory statistics course. A study was designed and carried out to investigate three research questions: (1) What is the difference in students' learning between using consensus and non-consensus collaborative tests in the online environment?, (2) What is…

Observations in the statistical analysis of NBG-18 nuclear graphite strength tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hindley, Michael P.; Mitchell, Mark N.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Groenwold, Albert A.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Statistical analysis of NBG-18 nuclear graphite strength test. ► A Weibull distribution and normal distribution is tested for all data. ► A Bimodal distribution in the CS data is confirmed. ► The CS data set has the lowest variance. ► A Combined data set is formed and has Weibull distribution. - Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to report on the selection of a statistical distribution chosen to represent the experimental material strength of NBG-18 nuclear graphite. Three large sets of samples were tested during the material characterisation of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor and Core Structure Ceramics materials. These sets of samples are tensile strength, flexural strength and compressive strength (CS) measurements. A relevant statistical fit is determined and the goodness of fit is also evaluated for each data set. The data sets are also normalised for ease of comparison, and combined into one representative data set. The validity of this approach is demonstrated. A second failure mode distribution is found on the CS test data. Identifying this failure mode supports the similar observations made in the past. The success of fitting the Weibull distribution through the normalised data sets allows us to improve the basis for the estimates of the variability. This could also imply that the variability on the graphite strength for the different strength measures is based on the same flaw distribution and thus a property of the material.

Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-05

The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Platnick, Steven E.

2011-01-01

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

The Statistic Test on Influence of Surface Treatment to Fatigue Lifetime with Limited Data

OpenAIRE

Suhartono, Agus

2009-01-01

Justifications on the influences of two or more parameters on fatigue strength are some times problematic due to the scatter nature of the fatigue data. Statistic test can facilitate the evaluation, whether the changes in material characteristics as a result of specific parameters of interest is significant. The statistic tests were applied to fatigue data of AISI 1045 steel specimens. The specimens are consisted of as received specimen, shot peened specimen with 15 and 16 Almen intensity as ...

Conducting tests for statistically significant differences using forest inventory data

Science.gov (United States)

James A. Westfall; Scott A. Pugh; John W. Coulston

2013-01-01

Many forest inventory and monitoring programs are based on a sample of ground plots from which estimates of forest resources are derived. In addition to evaluating metrics such as number of trees or amount of cubic wood volume, it is often desirable to make comparisons between resource attributes. To properly conduct statistical tests for differences, it is imperative...

Testing independence of bivariate interval-censored data using modified Kendall's tau statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yuneung; Lim, Johan; Park, DoHwan

2015-11-01

In this paper, we study a nonparametric procedure to test independence of bivariate interval censored data; for both current status data (case 1 interval-censored data) and case 2 interval-censored data. To do it, we propose a score-based modification of the Kendall's tau statistic for bivariate interval-censored data. Our modification defines the Kendall's tau statistic with expected numbers of concordant and disconcordant pairs of data. The performance of the modified approach is illustrated by simulation studies and application to the AIDS study. We compare our method to alternative approaches such as the two-stage estimation method by Sun et al. (Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2006) and the multiple imputation method by Betensky and Finkelstein (Statistics in Medicine, 1999b). © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Statistical Methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sotaridona, Leonardo

2003-01-01

This thesis contains a collection of studies where statistical methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests in multiple-choice format are proposed and investigated. Although all methods are suited to detect answer copying, each method is designed to address specific

Sport-specific endurance plank test for evaluation of global core muscle function.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Tom K; Wu, Shing; Nie, Jinlei

2014-02-01

To examine the validity and reliability of a sports-specific endurance plank test for the evaluation of global core muscle function. Repeated-measures study. Laboratory environment. Twenty-eight male and eight female young athletes. Surface electromyography (sEMG) of selected trunk flexors and extensors, and an intervention of pre-fatigue core workout were applied for test validation. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), coefficient of variation (CV), and the measurement bias ratio */÷ ratio limits of agreement (LOA) were calculated to assess reliability and measurement error. Test validity was shown by the sEMG of selected core muscles, which indicated >50% increase in muscle activation during the test; and the definite discrimination of the ∼30% reduction in global core muscle endurance subsequent to a pre-fatigue core workout. For test-retest reliability, when the first attempt of three repeated trials was considered as familiarisation, the ICC was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-0.99), CV was 2.0 ± 1.56% and the measurement bias ratio */÷ ratio LOA was 0.99 */÷ 1.07. The findings suggest that the sport-specific endurance plank test is a valid, reliable and practical method for assessing global core muscle endurance in athletes given that at least one familiarisation trial takes place prior to measurement. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 1.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-01-01

In this article in our series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at some of the attributes of diagnostic tests (i.e., tests which are used to determine whether an individual does or does not have disease). The next article in this series will focus on further issues related to diagnostic tests.

Global Wine Markets, 1961 to 2009: A statistical compendium

OpenAIRE

Anderson, Kym; Nelgen, Signe

2011-01-01

Until very recently, most grape-based wine was consumed close to where it was produced, and mostly that was in Europe. Barely one-tenth of the world’s wine production was exported prior to the 1970s, even counting intra-European trade. The latest wave of globalization has changed that forever. Now more than one-third of all wine consumed globally is produced in another country, and Europe’s dominance of global wine trade has been greatly diminished by the surge of exports from ‘New World’ pro...

Testing University Rankings Statistically: Why this Perhaps is not such a Good Idea after All. Some Reflections on Statistical Power, Effect Size, Random Sampling and Imaginary Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

2012-01-01

In this paper we discuss and question the use of statistical significance tests in relation to university rankings as recently suggested. We outline the assumptions behind and interpretations of statistical significance tests and relate this to examples from the recent SCImago Institutions Rankin...

A Comparison of Several Statistical Tests of Reciprocity of Self-Disclosure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dindia, Kathryn

1988-01-01

Reports the results of a study that used several statistical tests of reciprocity of self-disclosure. Finds little evidence for reciprocity of self-disclosure, and concludes that either reciprocity is an illusion, or that different or more sophisticated methods are needed to detect it. (MS)

China's energy statistics in a global context: A methodology to develop regional energy balances for East, Central and West China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mischke, Peggy

2013-01-01

for research and policy analysis. An improved understanding of the quality and reliability of Chinese economic and energy data is becoming more important to to understanding global energy markets and future greenhouse gas emissions. China’s national statistical system to track such changes is however still...... developing and, in some instances, energy data remain unavailable in the public domain. This working paper discusses China’s energy and economic statistics in view of identifying suitable indicators to develop a simplified regional energy systems for China from a variety of publicly available data. As China......’s national statistical system continuous to be debated and criticised in terms of data quality, comparability and reliability, an overview of the milestones, status and main issues of China’s energy statistics is given. In a next step, the energy balance format of the International Energy Agency is used...

Global CO2 flux inversions from remote-sensing data with systematic errors using hierarchical statistical models

Science.gov (United States)

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Stavert, Ann; Rigby, Matthew; Ganesan, Anita; Rayner, Peter; Cressie, Noel

2017-04-01

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite was launched on 2 July 2014, and it has been a source of atmospheric CO2 data since September 2014. The OCO-2 dataset contains a number of variables, but the one of most interest for flux inversion has been the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (in units of ppm). These global level-2 data offer the possibility of inferring CO2 fluxes at Earth's surface and tracking those fluxes over time. However, as well as having a component of random error, the OCO-2 data have a component of systematic error that is dependent on the instrument's mode, namely land nadir, land glint, and ocean glint. Our statistical approach to CO2-flux inversion starts with constructing a statistical model for the random and systematic errors with parameters that can be estimated from the OCO-2 data and possibly in situ sources from flasks, towers, and the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). Dimension reduction of the flux field is achieved through the use of physical basis functions, while temporal evolution of the flux is captured by modelling the basis-function coefficients as a vector autoregressive process. For computational efficiency, flux inversion uses only three months of sensitivities of mole fraction to changes in flux, computed using MOZART; any residual variation is captured through the modelling of a stochastic process that varies smoothly as a function of latitude. The second stage of our statistical approach is to simulate from the posterior distribution of the basis-function coefficients and all unknown parameters given the data using a fully Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Estimates and posterior variances of the flux field can then be obtained straightforwardly from this distribution. Our statistical approach is different than others, as it simultaneously makes inference (and quantifies uncertainty) on both the error components' parameters and the CO2 fluxes. We compare it to more classical

Testing the statistical isotropy of large scale structure with multipole vectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zunckel, Caroline; Huterer, Dragan; Starkman, Glenn D.

2011-01-01

A fundamental assumption in cosmology is that of statistical isotropy - that the Universe, on average, looks the same in every direction in the sky. Statistical isotropy has recently been tested stringently using cosmic microwave background data, leading to intriguing results on large angular scales. Here we apply some of the same techniques used in the cosmic microwave background to the distribution of galaxies on the sky. Using the multipole vector approach, where each multipole in the harmonic decomposition of galaxy density field is described by unit vectors and an amplitude, we lay out the basic formalism of how to reconstruct the multipole vectors and their statistics out of galaxy survey catalogs. We apply the algorithm to synthetic galaxy maps, and study the sensitivity of the multipole vector reconstruction accuracy to the density, depth, sky coverage, and pixelization of galaxy catalog maps.

Statistics

CERN Document Server

Hayslett, H T

1991-01-01

Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

Multiple Monte Carlo Testing with Applications in Spatial Point Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mrkvička, Tomáš; Myllymäki, Mari; Hahn, Ute

with a function as the test statistic, 3) several Monte Carlo tests with functions as test statistics. The rank test has correct (global) type I error in each case and it is accompanied with a p-value and with a graphical interpretation which shows which subtest or which distances of the used test function......(s) lead to the rejection at the prescribed significance level of the test. Examples of null hypothesis from point process and random set statistics are used to demonstrate the strength of the rank envelope test. The examples include goodness-of-fit test with several test functions, goodness-of-fit test...

Statistical characteristics of mechanical heart valve cavitation in accelerated testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Changfu; Hwang, Ned H C; Lin, Yu-Kweng M

2004-07-01

Cavitation damage has been observed on mechanical heart valves (MHVs) undergoing accelerated testing. Cavitation itself can be modeled as a stochastic process, as it varies from beat to beat of the testing machine. This in-vitro study was undertaken to investigate the statistical characteristics of MHV cavitation. A 25-mm St. Jude Medical bileaflet MHV (SJM 25) was tested in an accelerated tester at various pulse rates, ranging from 300 to 1,000 bpm, with stepwise increments of 100 bpm. A miniature pressure transducer was placed near a leaflet tip on the inflow side of the valve, to monitor regional transient pressure fluctuations at instants of valve closure. The pressure trace associated with each beat was passed through a 70 kHz high-pass digital filter to extract the high-frequency oscillation (HFO) components resulting from the collapse of cavitation bubbles. Three intensity-related measures were calculated for each HFO burst: its time span; its local root-mean-square (LRMS) value; and the area enveloped by the absolute value of the HFO pressure trace and the time axis, referred to as cavitation impulse. These were treated as stochastic processes, of which the first-order probability density functions (PDFs) were estimated for each test rate. Both the LRMS value and cavitation impulse were log-normal distributed, and the time span was normal distributed. These distribution laws were consistent at different test rates. The present investigation was directed at understanding MHV cavitation as a stochastic process. The results provide a basis for establishing further the statistical relationship between cavitation intensity and time-evolving cavitation damage on MHV surfaces. These data are required to assess and compare the performance of MHVs of different designs.

TRANSIT TIMING OBSERVATIONS FROM KEPLER. VI. POTENTIALLY INTERESTING CANDIDATE SYSTEMS FROM FOURIER-BASED STATISTICAL TESTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steffen, Jason H.; Ford, Eric B.; Rowe, Jason F.; Borucki, William J.; Bryson, Steve; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Jenkins, Jon M.; Koch, David G.; Sanderfer, Dwight T.; Seader, Shawn; Twicken, Joseph D.; Fabrycky, Daniel C.; Holman, Matthew J.; Welsh, William F.; Batalha, Natalie M.; Ciardi, David R.; Kjeldsen, Hans; Prša, Andrej

2012-01-01

We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.

Transit timing observations from Kepler. VI. Potentially interesting candidate systems from fourier-based statistical tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffen, J.H.; Ford, E.B.; Rowe, J.F.

2012-01-01

We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify...... several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies....

Acceleration techniques in the univariate Lipschitz global optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Sergeyev, Yaroslav D.; Kvasov, Dmitri E.; Mukhametzhanov, Marat S.; De Franco, Angela

2016-10-01

Univariate box-constrained Lipschitz global optimization problems are considered in this contribution. Geometric and information statistical approaches are presented. The novel powerful local tuning and local improvement techniques are described in the contribution as well as the traditional ways to estimate the Lipschitz constant. The advantages of the presented local tuning and local improvement techniques are demonstrated using the operational characteristics approach for comparing deterministic global optimization algorithms on the class of 100 widely used test functions.

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

OpenAIRE

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

2004-01-01

The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

Price limits and stock market efficiency: Evidence from rolling bicorrelation test statistic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Kian-Ping; Brooks, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Using the rolling bicorrelation test statistic, the present paper compares the efficiency of stock markets from China, Korea and Taiwan in selected sub-periods with different price limits regimes. The statistical results do not support the claims that restrictive price limits and price limits per se are jeopardizing market efficiency. However, the evidence does not imply that price limits have no effect on the price discovery process but rather suggesting that market efficiency is not merely determined by price limits.

A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Edward V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-02-01

Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning

A testing procedure for wind turbine generators based on the power grid statistical model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Nielsen, Peter

2017-01-01

In this study, a comprehensive test procedure is developed to test wind turbine generators with a hardware-in-loop setup. The procedure employs the statistical model of the power grid considering the restrictions of the test facility and system dynamics. Given the model in the latent space...

Person Fit Based on Statistical Process Control in an Adaptive Testing Environment. Research Report 98-13.

Science.gov (United States)

van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.; Meijer, Rob R.

Person-fit research in the context of paper-and-pencil tests is reviewed, and some specific problems regarding person fit in the context of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) are discussed. Some new methods are proposed to investigate person fit in a CAT environment. These statistics are based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory. A…

Exploration of time-course combinations of outcome scales for use in a global test of stroke recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Fraser C; Fulton, Rachael L; Dawson, Jesse; Bluhmki, Erich; Lees, Kennedy R

2014-08-01

Clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment require large numbers of participants and are expensive to conduct. Methods that enhance statistical power are therefore desirable. We explored whether this can be achieved by a measure incorporating both early and late measures of outcome (e.g. seven-day NIH Stroke Scale combined with 90-day modified Rankin scale). We analyzed sensitivity to treatment effect, using proportional odds logistic regression for ordinal scales and generalized estimating equation method for global outcomes, with all analyses adjusted for baseline severity and age. We ran simulations to assess relations between sample size and power for ordinal scales and corresponding global outcomes. We used R version 2·12·1 (R Development Core Team. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for simulations and SAS 9·2 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) for all other analyses. Each scale considered for combination was sensitive to treatment effect in isolation. The mRS90 and NIHSS90 had adjusted odds ratio of 1·56 and 1·62, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for global outcomes of the combination of mRS90 with NIHSS7 and NIHSS90 with NIHSS7 were 1·69 and 1·73, respectively. The smallest sample sizes required to generate statistical power ≥80% for mRS90, NIHSS7, and global outcomes of mRS90 and NIHSS7 combined and NIHSS90 and NIHSS7 combined were 500, 490, 400, and 380, respectively. When data concerning both early and late outcomes are combined into a global measure, there is increased sensitivity to treatment effect compared with solitary ordinal scales. This delivers a 20% reduction in required sample size at 80% power. Combining early with late outcomes merits further consideration. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

A statistical light use efficiency model explains 85% variations in global GPP

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.

2016-12-01

Photosynthesis is a complicated process whose modeling requires different levels of assumptions, simplification, and parameterization. Among models, light use efficiency (LUE) model is highly compact but powerful in monitoring gross primary production (GPP) from satellite data. Most of LUE models adopt a multiplicative from of maximum LUE, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR), and temperature and water stress functions. However, maximum LUE is a fitting parameter with large spatial variations, but most studies only use several biome dependent constants. In addition, stress functions are empirical and arbitrary in literatures. Moreover, meteorological data used are usually coarse-resolution, e.g., 1°, which could cause large errors. Finally, sunlit and shade canopy have completely different light responses but little considered. Targeting these issues, we derived a new statistical LUE model from a process-based and satellite-driven model, the Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS). We have already derived a set of global radiation (5-km resolution), carbon and water fluxes (1-km resolution) products from 2000 to 2015 from BESS. By exploring these datasets, we found strong correlation between APAR and GPP for sunlit (R2=0.84) and shade (R2=0.96) canopy, respectively. A simple model, only driven by sunlit and shade APAR, was thus built based on linear relationships. The slopes of the linear function act as effective LUE of global ecosystem, with values of 0.0232 and 0.0128 umol C/umol quanta for sunlit and shade canopy, respectively. When compared with MPI-BGC GPP products, a global proxy of FLUXNET data, BESS-LUE achieved an overall accuracy of R2 = 0.85, whereas original BESS was R2 = 0.83 and MODIS GPP product was R2 = 0.76. We investigated spatiotemporal variations of the effective LUE. Spatially, the ratio of sunlit to shade values ranged from 0.1 (wet tropic) to 4.5 (dry inland). By using maps of sunlit and shade effective LUE the accuracy of

Outcomes Definitions and Statistical Tests in Oncology Studies: A Systematic Review of the Reporting Consistency.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivoirard, Romain; Duplay, Vianney; Oriol, Mathieu; Tinquaut, Fabien; Chauvin, Franck; Magne, Nicolas; Bourmaud, Aurelie

2016-01-01

Quality of reporting for Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) in oncology was analyzed in several systematic reviews, but, in this setting, there is paucity of data for the outcomes definitions and consistency of reporting for statistical tests in RCTs and Observational Studies (OBS). The objective of this review was to describe those two reporting aspects, for OBS and RCTs in oncology. From a list of 19 medical journals, three were retained for analysis, after a random selection: British Medical Journal (BMJ), Annals of Oncology (AoO) and British Journal of Cancer (BJC). All original articles published between March 2009 and March 2014 were screened. Only studies whose main outcome was accompanied by a corresponding statistical test were included in the analysis. Studies based on censored data were excluded. Primary outcome was to assess quality of reporting for description of primary outcome measure in RCTs and of variables of interest in OBS. A logistic regression was performed to identify covariates of studies potentially associated with concordance of tests between Methods and Results parts. 826 studies were included in the review, and 698 were OBS. Variables were described in Methods section for all OBS studies and primary endpoint was clearly detailed in Methods section for 109 RCTs (85.2%). 295 OBS (42.2%) and 43 RCTs (33.6%) had perfect agreement for reported statistical test between Methods and Results parts. In multivariable analysis, variable "number of included patients in study" was associated with test consistency: aOR (adjusted Odds Ratio) for third group compared to first group was equal to: aOR Grp3 = 0.52 [0.31-0.89] (P value = 0.009). Variables in OBS and primary endpoint in RCTs are reported and described with a high frequency. However, statistical tests consistency between methods and Results sections of OBS is not always noted. Therefore, we encourage authors and peer reviewers to verify consistency of statistical tests in oncology studies.

A Multimodal Communication Aid for Global Aphasia Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jakob Schou; Dalsgaard, Paul; Lindberg, Børge

2004-01-01

This paper presents the basic rationale behind the development and testing of a multimodal communication aid especially designed for people suffering from global aphasia, and thus having severe expressive difficulties. The principle of the aid is to trigger patient associations by presenting...... various multimodal representations of communicative expressions. The aid can in this way be seen as a conceptual continuation of previous research within the field of communication aids based on uni-modal (pictorial) representations of communicative expressions. As patients suffering from global aphasia...... expressions can be used to support patients with global aphasia in communicating by means of short sentences with their surroundings. Only a limited evaluation is carried out, and as such no statistically significant results are obtained. The tests however indicate that the aid is capable of supporting...

A statistical test for outlier identification in data envelopment analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morteza Khodabin

2010-09-01

Full Text Available In the use of peer group data to assess individual, typical or best practice performance, the effective detection of outliers is critical for achieving useful results. In these ‘‘deterministic’’ frontier models, statistical theory is now mostly available. This paper deals with the statistical pared sample method and its capability of detecting outliers in data envelopment analysis. In the presented method, each observation is deleted from the sample once and the resulting linear program is solved, leading to a distribution of efficiency estimates. Based on the achieved distribution, a pared test is designed to identify the potential outlier(s. We illustrate the method through a real data set. The method could be used in a first step, as an exploratory data analysis, before using any frontier estimation.

Association testing for next-generation sequencing data using score statistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skotte, Line; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Albrechtsen, Anders

2012-01-01

computationally feasible due to the use of score statistics. As part of the joint likelihood, we model the distribution of the phenotypes using a generalized linear model framework, which works for both quantitative and discrete phenotypes. Thus, the method presented here is applicable to case-control studies...... of genotype calls into account have been proposed; most require numerical optimization which for large-scale data is not always computationally feasible. We show that using a score statistic for the joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed sequencing data provides an attractive approach...... to association testing for next-generation sequencing data. The joint model accounts for the genotype classification uncertainty via the posterior probabilities of the genotypes given the observed sequencing data, which gives the approach higher power than methods based on called genotypes. This strategy remains...

Interpreting Statistical Significance Test Results: A Proposed New "What If" Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kieffer, Kevin M.; Thompson, Bruce

As the 1994 publication manual of the American Psychological Association emphasized, "p" values are affected by sample size. As a result, it can be helpful to interpret the results of statistical significant tests in a sample size context by conducting so-called "what if" analyses. However, these methods can be inaccurate…

Evaluation of Applicability of Global Solar Radiation Prediction Models for Kocaeli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurullah ARSLANOĞLU

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Design and analyses of solar energy systems needs value of global solar radiation falling on the surface of the earth. In this study,  thirty relative sunshine duration based regression models in the literature for determining the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli were investigated. To indicate the performance of the models, the following statistical test methods are used: mean absolute bias error (MABE, mean bias error (MBE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, mean percent error (MPE, root mean square error (RMSE. According to the statistical performance, Lewis model (Model 23, Model-18 (Jin et al. and Model 8 (Bahel et al. showed the best estimation of the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli.

Statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Wenjing; Sun, Jinqiu; Zhang, Yanning; Li, Haisen

2016-03-01

Photometric measurement is an important way to identify the space debris, but the present methods of photometric measurement have many constraints on star image and need complex image processing. Aiming at the problems, a statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement is proposed based on the global consistency of the star image, and the statistical information of star images is used to eliminate the measurement noises. First, the known stars on the star image are divided into training stars and testing stars. Then, the training stars are selected as the least squares fitting parameters to construct the photometric measurement model, and the testing stars are used to calculate the measurement accuracy of the photometric measurement model. Experimental results show that, the accuracy of the proposed photometric measurement model is about 0.1 magnitudes.

The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

2017-12-01

NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

Properties of global- and local-ancestry adjustments in genetic association tests in admixed populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Eden R; Tunc, Ilker; Liu, Zhi; Slifer, Susan H; Beecham, Ashley H; Beecham, Gary W

2018-03-01

Population substructure can lead to confounding in tests for genetic association, and failure to adjust properly can result in spurious findings. Here we address this issue of confounding by considering the impact of global ancestry (average ancestry across the genome) and local ancestry (ancestry at a specific chromosomal location) on regression parameters and relative power in ancestry-adjusted and -unadjusted models. We examine theoretical expectations under different scenarios for population substructure; applying different regression models, verifying and generalizing using simulations, and exploring the findings in real-world admixed populations. We show that admixture does not lead to confounding when the trait locus is tested directly in a single admixed population. However, if there is more complex population structure or a marker locus in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the trait locus is tested, both global and local ancestry can be confounders. Additionally, we show the genotype parameters of adjusted and unadjusted models all provide tests for LD between the marker and trait locus, but in different contexts. The local ancestry adjusted model tests for LD in the ancestral populations, while tests using the unadjusted and the global ancestry adjusted models depend on LD in the admixed population(s), which may be enriched due to different ancestral allele frequencies. Practically, this implies that global-ancestry adjustment should be used for screening, but local-ancestry adjustment may better inform fine mapping and provide better effect estimates at trait loci. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Humble, Travis S [ORNL

2014-01-01

The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.

Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

2008-01-01

Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values

Mathematical statistics

CERN Document Server

Pestman, Wiebe R

2009-01-01

This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.

Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-11-15

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

IEEE Std 101-1987: IEEE guide for the statistical analysis of thermal life test data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This revision of IEEE Std 101-1972 describes statistical analyses for data from thermally accelerated aging tests. It explains the basis and use of statistical calculations for an engineer or scientist. Accelerated test procedures usually call for a number of specimens to be aged at each of several temperatures appreciably above normal operating temperatures. High temperatures are chosen to produce specimen failures (according to specified failure criteria) in typically one week to one year. The test objective is to determine the dependence of median life on temperature from the data, and to estimate, by extrapolation, the median life to be expected at service temperature. This guide presents methods for analyzing such data and for comparing test data on different materials

Application of statistical methods to the testing of nuclear counting assemblies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, J.P.; Friedling, G.

1965-01-01

This report describes the application of the hypothesis test theory to the control of the 'statistical purity' and of the stability of the counting batteries used for measurements on activation detectors in research reactors. The principles involved and the experimental results obtained at Cadarache on batteries operating with the reactors PEGGY and AZUR are given. (authors) [fr

The Q* Index: A Useful Global Measure of Dementia Screening Test Accuracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.J. Larner

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: Single, global or unitary, indicators of test diagnostic performance have intuitive appeal for clinicians. The Q* index, the point in receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve space closest to the ideal top left-hand corner and where test sensitivity and specificity are equal, is one such measure. Methods: Datasets from four pragmatic accuracy studies which examined the Mini-Mental State Examination, Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Test Your Memory test, and Mini-Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination were examined to calculate and compare the Q* index, the maximal correct classification accuracy, and the maximal Youden index, as well as the sensitivity and specificity at these cutoffs. Results: Tests ranked similarly for the Q* index and the area under the ROC curve (AUC ROC. The Q* index cutoff was more sensitive (and less specific than the maximal correct classification accuracy cutoff, and less sensitive (and more specific than the maximal Youden index cutoff. Conclusion: The Q* index may be a useful global parameter summarising the test accuracy of cognitive screening instruments, facilitating comparison between tests, and defining a possible test cutoff value. As the point of equal sensitivity and specificity, its use may be more intuitive and appealing for clinicians than AUC ROC.

Test the Overall Significance of p-values by Using Joint Tail Probability of Ordered p-values as Test Statistic

OpenAIRE

Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst

2008-01-01

Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values and decide the test result. This is, in some cases, viewed as a flaw. In order to overcome this flaw and improve the power of the test, the joint tail probability of a set p-values is proposed as a ...

Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2015-04-02

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

Statistical auditing and randomness test of lotto k/N-type games

Science.gov (United States)

Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Rapallo, F.; Scalas, E.

2008-11-01

One of the most popular lottery games worldwide is the so-called “lotto k/N”. It considers N numbers 1,2,…,N from which k are drawn randomly, without replacement. A player selects k or more numbers and the first prize is shared amongst those players whose selected numbers match all of the k randomly drawn. Exact rules may vary in different countries. In this paper, mean values and covariances for the random variables representing the numbers drawn from this kind of game are presented, with the aim of using them to audit statistically the consistency of a given sample of historical results with theoretical values coming from a hypergeometric statistical model. The method can be adapted to test pseudorandom number generators.

IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION OF STATISTICAL TESTS IN RESEARCH'S SOFTWARE HELPING DATA COLLECTION AND PROTOCOLS ANALYSIS IN SURGERY.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuretzki, Carlos Henrique; Campos, Antônio Carlos Ligocki; Malafaia, Osvaldo; Soares, Sandramara Scandelari Kusano de Paula; Tenório, Sérgio Bernardo; Timi, Jorge Rufino Ribas

2016-03-01

The use of information technology is often applied in healthcare. With regard to scientific research, the SINPE(c) - Integrated Electronic Protocols was created as a tool to support researchers, offering clinical data standardization. By the time, SINPE(c) lacked statistical tests obtained by automatic analysis. Add to SINPE(c) features for automatic realization of the main statistical methods used in medicine . The study was divided into four topics: check the interest of users towards the implementation of the tests; search the frequency of their use in health care; carry out the implementation; and validate the results with researchers and their protocols. It was applied in a group of users of this software in their thesis in the strict sensu master and doctorate degrees in one postgraduate program in surgery. To assess the reliability of the statistics was compared the data obtained both automatically by SINPE(c) as manually held by a professional in statistics with experience with this type of study. There was concern for the use of automatic statistical tests, with good acceptance. The chi-square, Mann-Whitney, Fisher and t-Student were considered as tests frequently used by participants in medical studies. These methods have been implemented and thereafter approved as expected. The incorporation of the automatic SINPE (c) Statistical Analysis was shown to be reliable and equal to the manually done, validating its use as a research tool for medical research.

An omnibus likelihood test statistic and its factorization for change detection in time series of polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

2016-01-01

Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...... in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...

Change detection in a time series of polarimetric SAR data by an omnibus test statistic and its factorization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

2016-01-01

Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...... in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...

Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

2010-12-01

information on boundary conditions such as water and light availability or temperature sensibility. Based on the given limitation factors, a number of sensitive parameters are chosen, e.g. for the phenological development, biomass allocation, and different management regimes. These are introduced to a sensitivity analysis and Bayesian parameter evaluation using the R package FME (Soetart & Petzoldt, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010). Given the extremely different climatic conditions at the FluxNet grass sites, the premises for the global sensitivity analysis are very promising.

The use of statistical tools in field testing of putative effects of genetically modified plants on nontarget organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Semenov, Alexander V; Elsas, Jan Dirk; Glandorf, Debora C M; Schilthuizen, Menno; Boer, Willem F

2013-08-01

To fulfill existing guidelines, applicants that aim to place their genetically modified (GM) insect-resistant crop plants on the market are required to provide data from field experiments that address the potential impacts of the GM plants on nontarget organisms (NTO's). Such data may be based on varied experimental designs. The recent EFSA guidance document for environmental risk assessment (2010) does not provide clear and structured suggestions that address the statistics of field trials on effects on NTO's. This review examines existing practices in GM plant field testing such as the way of randomization, replication, and pseudoreplication. Emphasis is placed on the importance of design features used for the field trials in which effects on NTO's are assessed. The importance of statistical power and the positive and negative aspects of various statistical models are discussed. Equivalence and difference testing are compared, and the importance of checking the distribution of experimental data is stressed to decide on the selection of the proper statistical model. While for continuous data (e.g., pH and temperature) classical statistical approaches - for example, analysis of variance (ANOVA) - are appropriate, for discontinuous data (counts) only generalized linear models (GLM) are shown to be efficient. There is no golden rule as to which statistical test is the most appropriate for any experimental situation. In particular, in experiments in which block designs are used and covariates play a role GLMs should be used. Generic advice is offered that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in this testing. The combination of decision trees and a checklist for field trials, which are provided, will help in the interpretation of the statistical analyses of field trials and to assess whether such analyses were correctly applied. We offer generic advice to risk assessors and applicants that will

Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lesner, Rune Vammen

. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure but increases in job transitions and that the fraction of women in high-ranking positions within a firm does......This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market...... not affect the level of statistical discrimination by gender....

Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnet, A.; Gabriel, S.; Percebois, J.

2016-01-01

Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on 'geological environments'. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a distribution of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures. (authors)

Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

2015-10-01

Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

Determination of daily solar ultraviolet radiation using statistical models and artificial neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. J. Barbero

2006-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, two different methodologies are used to develop two models for estimating daily solar UV radiation. The first is based on traditional statistical techniques whereas the second is based on artificial neural network methods. Both models use daily solar global broadband radiation as the only measured input. The statistical model is derived from a relationship between the daily UV and the global clearness indices but modulated by the relative optical air mass. The inputs to the neural network model were determined from a large number of radiometric and atmospheric parameters using the automatic relevance determination method, although only the daily solar global irradiation, daily global clearness index and relative optical air mass were shown to be the optimal input variables. Both statistical and neural network models were developed using data measured at Almería (Spain, a semiarid and coastal climate, and tested against data from Table Mountain (Golden, CO, USA, a mountainous and dry environment. Results show that the statistical model performs adequately in both sites for all weather conditions, especially when only snow-free days at Golden were considered (RMSE=4.6%, MBE= –0.1%. The neural network based model provides the best overall estimates in the site where it has been trained, but presents an inadequate performance for the Golden site when snow-covered days are included (RMSE=6.5%, MBE= –3.0%. This result confirms that the neural network model does not adequately respond on those ranges of the input parameters which were not used for its development.

Computer processing of 14C data; statistical tests and corrections of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obelic, B.; Planinic, J.

1977-01-01

The described computer program calculates the age of samples and performs statistical tests and corrections of data. Data are obtained from the proportional counter that measures anticoincident pulses per 20 minute intervals. After every 9th interval the counter measures total number of counts per interval. Input data are punched on cards. The output list contains input data schedule and the following results: mean CPM value, correction of CPM for normal pressure and temperature (NTP), sample age calculation based on 14 C half life of 5570 and 5730 years, age correction for NTP, dendrochronological corrections and the relative radiocarbon concentration. All results are given with one standard deviation. Input data test (Chauvenet's criterion), gas purity test, standard deviation test and test of the data processor are also included in the program. (author)

A Note on Comparing the Power of Test Statistics at Low Significance Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Nathan; Elston, Robert

2011-01-01

It is an obvious fact that the power of a test statistic is dependent upon the significance (alpha) level at which the test is performed. It is perhaps a less obvious fact that the relative performance of two statistics in terms of power is also a function of the alpha level. Through numerous personal discussions, we have noted that even some competent statisticians have the mistaken intuition that relative power comparisons at traditional levels such as α = 0.05 will be roughly similar to relative power comparisons at very low levels, such as the level α = 5 × 10 -8 , which is commonly used in genome-wide association studies. In this brief note, we demonstrate that this notion is in fact quite wrong, especially with respect to comparing tests with differing degrees of freedom. In fact, at very low alpha levels the cost of additional degrees of freedom is often comparatively low. Thus we recommend that statisticians exercise caution when interpreting the results of power comparison studies which use alpha levels that will not be used in practice.

Cosmological Non-Gaussian Signature Detection: Comparing Performance of Different Statistical Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Forni

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Currently, it appears that the best method for non-Gaussianity detection in the cosmic microwave background (CMB consists in calculating the kurtosis of the wavelet coefficients. We know that wavelet-kurtosis outperforms other methods such as the bispectrum, the genus, ridgelet-kurtosis, and curvelet-kurtosis on an empirical basis, but relatively few studies have compared other transform-based statistics, such as extreme values, or more recent tools such as higher criticism (HC, or proposed “best possible” choices for such statistics. In this paper, we consider two models for transform-domain coefficients: (a a power-law model, which seems suited to the wavelet coefficients of simulated cosmic strings, and (b a sparse mixture model, which seems suitable for the curvelet coefficients of filamentary structure. For model (a, if power-law behavior holds with finite 8th moment, excess kurtosis is an asymptotically optimal detector, but if the 8th moment is not finite, a test based on extreme values is asymptotically optimal. For model (b, if the transform coefficients are very sparse, a recent test, higher criticism, is an optimal detector, but if they are dense, kurtosis is an optimal detector. Empirical wavelet coefficients of simulated cosmic strings have power-law character, infinite 8th moment, while curvelet coefficients of the simulated cosmic strings are not very sparse. In all cases, excess kurtosis seems to be an effective test in moderate-resolution imagery.

Testing Genetic Pleiotropy with GWAS Summary Statistics for Marginal and Conditional Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yangqing; Pan, Wei

2017-12-01

There is growing interest in testing genetic pleiotropy, which is when a single genetic variant influences multiple traits. Several methods have been proposed; however, these methods have some limitations. First, all the proposed methods are based on the use of individual-level genotype and phenotype data; in contrast, for logistical, and other, reasons, summary statistics of univariate SNP-trait associations are typically only available based on meta- or mega-analyzed large genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. Second, existing tests are based on marginal pleiotropy, which cannot distinguish between direct and indirect associations of a single genetic variant with multiple traits due to correlations among the traits. Hence, it is useful to consider conditional analysis, in which a subset of traits is adjusted for another subset of traits. For example, in spite of substantial lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) with statin therapy, some patients still maintain high residual cardiovascular risk, and, for these patients, it might be helpful to reduce their triglyceride (TG) level. For this purpose, in order to identify new therapeutic targets, it would be useful to identify genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on LDL and TG after adjusting the latter for LDL; otherwise, a pleiotropic effect of a genetic variant detected by a marginal model could simply be due to its association with LDL only, given the well-known correlation between the two types of lipids. Here, we develop a new pleiotropy testing procedure based only on GWAS summary statistics that can be applied for both marginal analysis and conditional analysis. Although the main technical development is based on published union-intersection testing methods, care is needed in specifying conditional models to avoid invalid statistical estimation and inference. In addition to the previously used likelihood ratio test, we also propose using generalized estimating equations under the

Evaluation of the Wishart test statistics for polarimetric SAR data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skriver, Henning; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut

2003-01-01

A test statistic for equality of two covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution has previously been used in new algorithms for change detection, edge detection and segmentation in polarimetric SAR images. Previously, the results for change detection and edge detection have been...... quantitatively evaluated. This paper deals with the evaluation of segmentation. A segmentation performance measure originally developed for single-channel SAR images has been extended to polarimetric SAR images, and used to evaluate segmentation for a merge-using-moment algorithm for polarimetric SAR data....

Identification of significant features by the Global Mean Rank test.

Science.gov (United States)

Klammer, Martin; Dybowski, J Nikolaj; Hoffmann, Daniel; Schaab, Christoph

2014-01-01

With the introduction of omics-technologies such as transcriptomics and proteomics, numerous methods for the reliable identification of significantly regulated features (genes, proteins, etc.) have been developed. Experimental practice requires these tests to successfully deal with conditions such as small numbers of replicates, missing values, non-normally distributed expression levels, and non-identical distributions of features. With the MeanRank test we aimed at developing a test that performs robustly under these conditions, while favorably scaling with the number of replicates. The test proposed here is a global one-sample location test, which is based on the mean ranks across replicates, and internally estimates and controls the false discovery rate. Furthermore, missing data is accounted for without the need of imputation. In extensive simulations comparing MeanRank to other frequently used methods, we found that it performs well with small and large numbers of replicates, feature dependent variance between replicates, and variable regulation across features on simulation data and a recent two-color microarray spike-in dataset. The tests were then used to identify significant changes in the phosphoproteomes of cancer cells induced by the kinase inhibitors erlotinib and 3-MB-PP1 in two independently published mass spectrometry-based studies. MeanRank outperformed the other global rank-based methods applied in this study. Compared to the popular Significance Analysis of Microarrays and Linear Models for Microarray methods, MeanRank performed similar or better. Furthermore, MeanRank exhibits more consistent behavior regarding the degree of regulation and is robust against the choice of preprocessing methods. MeanRank does not require any imputation of missing values, is easy to understand, and yields results that are easy to interpret. The software implementing the algorithm is freely available for academic and commercial use.

Partial discharge testing: a progress report. Statistical evaluation of PD data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warren, V.; Allan, J.

2005-01-01

It has long been known that comparing the partial discharge results obtained from a single machine is a valuable tool enabling companies to observe the gradual deterioration of a machine stator winding and thus plan appropriate maintenance for the machine. In 1998, at the annual Iris Rotating Machines Conference (IRMC), a paper was presented that compared thousands of PD test results to establish the criteria for comparing results from different machines and the expected PD levels. At subsequent annual Iris conferences, using similar analytical procedures, papers were presented that supported the previous criteria and: in 1999, established sensor location as an additional criterion; in 2000, evaluated the effect of insulation type and age on PD activity; in 2001, evaluated the effect of manufacturer on PD activity; in 2002, evaluated the effect of operating pressure for hydrogen-cooled machines; in 2003, evaluated the effect of insulation type and setting Trac alarms; in 2004, re-evaluated the effect of manufacturer on PD activity. Before going further in database analysis procedures, it would be prudent to statistically evaluate the anecdotal evidence observed to date. The goal was to determine which variables of machine conditions greatly influenced the PD results and which didn't. Therefore, this year's paper looks at the impact of operating voltage, machine type and winding type on the test results for air-cooled machines. Because of resource constraints, only data collected through 2003 was used; however, as before, it is still standardized for frequency bandwidth and pruned to include only full-load-hot (FLH) results collected for one sensor on operating machines. All questionable data, or data from off-line testing or unusual machine conditions was excluded, leaving 6824 results. Calibration of on-line PD test results is impractical; therefore, only results obtained using the same method of data collection and noise separation techniques are compared. For

Software Test Description (STD) for the Globally Relocatable Navy Tide/Atmospheric Modeling System (PCTides)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Posey, Pamela

2002-01-01

The purpose of this Software Test Description (STD) is to establish formal test cases to be used by personnel tasked with the installation and verification of the Globally Relocatable Navy Tide/Atmospheric Modeling System (PCTides...

Incorporating an Interactive Statistics Workshop into an Introductory Biology Course-Based Undergraduate Research Experience (CURE) Enhances Students' Statistical Reasoning and Quantitative Literacy Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Olimpo, Jeffrey T; Pevey, Ryan S; McCabe, Thomas M

2018-01-01

Course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) provide an avenue for student participation in authentic scientific opportunities. Within the context of such coursework, students are often expected to collect, analyze, and evaluate data obtained from their own investigations. Yet, limited research has been conducted that examines mechanisms for supporting students in these endeavors. In this article, we discuss the development and evaluation of an interactive statistics workshop that was expressly designed to provide students with an open platform for graduate teaching assistant (GTA)-mentored data processing, statistical testing, and synthesis of their own research findings. Mixed methods analyses of pre/post-intervention survey data indicated a statistically significant increase in students' reasoning and quantitative literacy abilities in the domain, as well as enhancement of student self-reported confidence in and knowledge of the application of various statistical metrics to real-world contexts. Collectively, these data reify an important role for scaffolded instruction in statistics in preparing emergent scientists to be data-savvy researchers in a globally expansive STEM workforce.

Humane Society International's global campaign to end animal testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidle, Troy

2013-12-01

The Research & Toxicology Department of Humane Society International (HSI) operates a multifaceted and science-driven global programme aimed at ending the use of animals in toxicity testing and research. The key strategic objectives include: a) ending cosmetics animal testing worldwide, via the multinational Be Cruelty-Free campaign; b) achieving near-term reductions in animal testing requirements through revision of product sector regulations; and c) advancing humane science by exposing failing animal models of human disease and shifting science funding toward human biology-based research and testing tools fit for the 21st century. HSI was instrumental in ensuring the implementation of the March 2013 European sales ban for newly animal-tested cosmetics, in achieving the June 2013 cosmetics animal testing ban in India as well as major cosmetics regulatory policy shifts in China and South Korea, and in securing precedent-setting reductions in in vivo data requirements for pesticides in the EU through the revision of biocides and plant protection product regulations, among others. HSI is currently working to export these life-saving measures to more than a dozen industrial and emerging economies. 2013 FRAME.

To test photon statistics by atomic beam deflection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yuzhu; Chen Yudan; Huang Weigang; Liu Liang

1985-02-01

There exists a simple relation between the photon statistics in resonance fluorescence and the statistics of the momentum transferred to an atom by a plane travelling wave [Cook, R.J., Opt. Commun., 35, 347(1980)]. Using an atomic beam deflection by light pressure, we have observed sub-Poissonian statistics in resonance fluorescence of two-level atoms. (author)

Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

Science.gov (United States)

Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

2018-03-01

The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

Statistical characteristics of seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC disturbances prior to global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes (1998-2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen

2015-12-01

Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.

Global Tuberculosis Report 2016

Science.gov (United States)

... Alt+0 Navigation Alt+1 Content Alt+2 Tuberculosis (TB) Menu Tuberculosis Data and statistics Regional Framework Resources Meetings and events Global tuberculosis report 2017 WHO has published a global TB ...

A statistical method for testing epidemiological results, as applied to the Hanford worker population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brodsky, A.

1979-01-01

Some recent reports of Mancuso, Stewart and Kneale claim findings of radiation-produced cancer in the Hanford worker population. These claims are based on statistical computations that use small differences in accumulated exposures between groups dying of cancer and groups dying of other causes; actual mortality and longevity were not reported. This paper presents a statistical method for evaluation of actual mortality and longevity longitudinally over time, as applied in a primary analysis of the mortality experience of the Hanford worker population. Although available, this method was not utilized in the Mancuso-Stewart-Kneale paper. The author's preliminary longitudinal analysis shows that the gross mortality experience of persons employed at Hanford during 1943-70 interval did not differ significantly from that of certain controls, when both employees and controls were selected from families with two or more offspring and comparison were matched by age, sex, race and year of entry into employment. This result is consistent with findings reported by Sanders (Health Phys. vol.35, 521-538, 1978). The method utilizes an approximate chi-square (1 D.F.) statistic for testing population subgroup comparisons, as well as the cumulation of chi-squares (1 D.F.) for testing the overall result of a particular type of comparison. The method is available for computer testing of the Hanford mortality data, and could also be adapted to morbidity or other population studies. (author)

Proficiency Testing for Determination of Water Content in Toluene of Chemical Reagents by iteration robust statistic technique

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hao; Wang, Qunwei; He, Ming

2018-05-01

In order to investigate and improve the level of detection technology of water content in liquid chemical reagents of domestic laboratories, proficiency testing provider PT0031 (CNAS) has organized proficiency testing program of water content in toluene, 48 laboratories from 18 provinces/cities/municipals took part in the PT. This paper introduces the implementation process of proficiency testing for determination of water content in toluene, including sample preparation, homogeneity and stability test, the results of statistics of iteration robust statistic technique and analysis, summarized and analyzed those of the different test standards which are widely used in the laboratories, put forward the technological suggestions for the improvement of the test quality of water content. Satisfactory results were obtained by 43 laboratories, amounting to 89.6% of the total participating laboratories.

Recent Literature on Whether Statistical Significance Tests Should or Should Not Be Banned.

Science.gov (United States)

Deegear, James

This paper summarizes the literature regarding statistical significant testing with an emphasis on recent literature in various discipline and literature exploring why researchers have demonstrably failed to be influenced by the American Psychological Association publication manual's encouragement to report effect sizes. Also considered are…

Comparing Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) criteria with the Childhood Asthma Control Test (C-ACT) and Asthma Control Test (ACT)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koolen, B.B.; Pijnenburg, M.W.; Brackel, H.J.; Landstra, A.M.; Berg, N.J. van den; Merkus, P.J.F.M.; Hop, W.C.J.; Vaessen-Verberne, A.A.

2011-01-01

Several tools are useful in detecting uncontrolled asthma in children. The aim of this study was to compare Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) guidelines with the Childhood Asthma Control Test (C-ACT) and the Asthma Control Test (ACT) in detecting uncontrolled asthma in children. 145 children with

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

A method of statistical analysis in the field of sports science when assumptions of parametric tests are not violated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elżbieta Sandurska

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Application of statistical software typically does not require extensive statistical knowledge, allowing to easily perform even complex analyses. Consequently, test selection criteria and important assumptions may be easily overlooked or given insufficient consideration. In such cases, the results may likely lead to wrong conclusions. Aim: To discuss issues related to assumption violations in the case of Student's t-test and one-way ANOVA, two parametric tests frequently used in the field of sports science, and to recommend solutions. Description of the state of knowledge: Student's t-test and ANOVA are parametric tests, and therefore some of the assumptions that need to be satisfied include normal distribution of the data and homogeneity of variances in groups. If the assumptions are violated, the original design of the test is impaired, and the test may then be compromised giving spurious results. A simple method to normalize the data and to stabilize the variance is to use transformations. If such approach fails, a good alternative to consider is a nonparametric test, such as Mann-Whitney, the Kruskal-Wallis or Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Summary: Thorough verification of the parametric tests assumptions allows for correct selection of statistical tools, which is the basis of well-grounded statistical analysis. With a few simple rules, testing patterns in the data characteristic for the study of sports science comes down to a straightforward procedure.

Examining publication bias—a simulation-based evaluation of statistical tests on publication bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Schneck

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background Publication bias is a form of scientific misconduct. It threatens the validity of research results and the credibility of science. Although several tests on publication bias exist, no in-depth evaluations are available that examine which test performs best for different research settings. Methods Four tests on publication bias, Egger’s test (FAT, p-uniform, the test of excess significance (TES, as well as the caliper test, were evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Two different types of publication bias and its degree (0%, 50%, 100% were simulated. The type of publication bias was defined either as file-drawer, meaning the repeated analysis of new datasets, or p-hacking, meaning the inclusion of covariates in order to obtain a significant result. In addition, the underlying effect (β = 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, effect heterogeneity, the number of observations in the simulated primary studies (N = 100, 500, and the number of observations for the publication bias tests (K = 100, 1,000 were varied. Results All tests evaluated were able to identify publication bias both in the file-drawer and p-hacking condition. The false positive rates were, with the exception of the 15%- and 20%-caliper test, unbiased. The FAT had the largest statistical power in the file-drawer conditions, whereas under p-hacking the TES was, except under effect heterogeneity, slightly better. The CTs were, however, inferior to the other tests under effect homogeneity and had a decent statistical power only in conditions with 1,000 primary studies. Discussion The FAT is recommended as a test for publication bias in standard meta-analyses with no or only small effect heterogeneity. If two-sided publication bias is suspected as well as under p-hacking the TES is the first alternative to the FAT. The 5%-caliper test is recommended under conditions of effect heterogeneity and a large number of primary studies, which may be found if publication bias is examined in a

A new approach to a global fit of the CKM matrix

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoecker, A.; Lacker, H.; Laplace, S. [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, 91 - Orsay (France); Le Diberder, F. [Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire et des Hautes Energies, 75 - Paris (France)

2001-05-01

We report on a new approach to a global CKM matrix analysis taking into account most recent experimental and theoretical results. The statistical framework (Rfit) developed in this paper advocates frequentist statistics. Other approaches, such as Bayesian statistics or the 95% CL scan method are also discussed. We emphasize the distinction of a model testing and a model dependent, metrological phase in which the various parameters of the theory are estimated. Measurements and theoretical parameters entering the global fit are thoroughly discussed, in particular with respect to their theoretical uncertainties. Graphical results for confidence levels are drawn in various one and two-dimensional parameter spaces. Numerical results are provided for all relevant CKM parameterizations, the CKM elements and theoretical input parameters. Predictions for branching ratios of rare K and B meson decays are obtained. A simple, predictive SUSY extension of the Standard Model is discussed. (authors)

Pivotal statistics for testing subsets of structural parameters in the IV Regression Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.

2000-01-01

We construct a novel statistic to test hypothezes on subsets of the structural parameters in anInstrumental Variables (IV) regression model. We derive the chi squared limiting distribution of thestatistic and show that it has a degrees of freedom parameter that is equal to the number ofstructural

Incorporating an Interactive Statistics Workshop into an Introductory Biology Course-Based Undergraduate Research Experience (CURE) Enhances Students’ Statistical Reasoning and Quantitative Literacy Skills †

Science.gov (United States)

Olimpo, Jeffrey T.; Pevey, Ryan S.; McCabe, Thomas M.

2018-01-01

Course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) provide an avenue for student participation in authentic scientific opportunities. Within the context of such coursework, students are often expected to collect, analyze, and evaluate data obtained from their own investigations. Yet, limited research has been conducted that examines mechanisms for supporting students in these endeavors. In this article, we discuss the development and evaluation of an interactive statistics workshop that was expressly designed to provide students with an open platform for graduate teaching assistant (GTA)-mentored data processing, statistical testing, and synthesis of their own research findings. Mixed methods analyses of pre/post-intervention survey data indicated a statistically significant increase in students’ reasoning and quantitative literacy abilities in the domain, as well as enhancement of student self-reported confidence in and knowledge of the application of various statistical metrics to real-world contexts. Collectively, these data reify an important role for scaffolded instruction in statistics in preparing emergent scientists to be data-savvy researchers in a globally expansive STEM workforce. PMID:29904549

Link System Performance at the First Global Test of the CMS Alignment System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arce, P.; Calvo, E.; Figueroa, C. F.; Rodrigo, T.; Vila, I.; Virto, A. L.; Barcala, J. M.; Fernandez, M. G.; Ferrando, A.; Josa, M. I.; Molinero, A.; Oller, J. C.

2001-01-01

A test of components and a global test of the CMS alignment system was performed at the 14 hall of the ISR tunnel at CERN along Summer 2000. Positions are reconstructed and compared to survey measurements. The obtained results from the measurements of the Link System are presented here. (Author) 12 refs

Link System Performance at the First Global Test of the CMS Alignment System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arce, P.; Calvo, E.; Figueroa, C.F.; Rodrigo, T.; Vila, I.; Virto, A.L. [Universidad de Cantabria (Spain); Barcala, J.M.; Fernandez, M.G.; Ferrando, A.; Josa, M.I.; Molinero, A.; Oller, J.C. [CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

2001-07-01

A test of components and a global test of the CMS alignment system was performed at the 14 hall of the ISR tunnel at CERN along Summer 2000. Positions are reconstructed and compared to survey measurements. The obtained results from the measurements of the Link System are presented here. (Author) 12 refs.

Statistical Diversions

Science.gov (United States)

Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

2008-01-01

In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voyant, Cyril; Soubdhan, Ted; Lauret, Philippe; David, Mathieu; Muselli, Marc

2015-01-01

In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set of 20 statistical parameters in order to estimate the short term predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby to propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardless the forecasting methods used. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometrics but never in global radiation prediction, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations. This study gives a judgment for engineers and researchers on the installation or management of solar plants and could help in minimizing the energy crisis allowing to improve the renewable energy part of the energy mix. - Highlights: • Use of statistical parameter never used for the global radiation forecasting. • A priori index allowing to optimize easily and quickly a clear sky model. • New methodology allowing to quantify the prediction error regardless the predictor used. • The prediction error depends more on the location and the time series type than the machine Learning method used.

Heteroscedastic Tests Statistics for One-Way Analysis of Variance: The Trimmed Means and Hall's Transformation Conjunction

Science.gov (United States)

Luh, Wei-Ming; Guo, Jiin-Huarng

2005-01-01

To deal with nonnormal and heterogeneous data for the one-way fixed effect analysis of variance model, the authors adopted a trimmed means method in conjunction with Hall's invertible transformation into a heteroscedastic test statistic (Alexander-Govern test or Welch test). The results of simulation experiments showed that the proposed technique…

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, S.E.

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, S E [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Statistical Consulting Centre

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs.

Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender

OpenAIRE

Lesner, Rune Vammen

2016-01-01

This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure...

Statistical sampling approaches for soil monitoring

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.

2014-01-01

This paper describes three statistical sampling approaches for regional soil monitoring, a design-based, a model-based and a hybrid approach. In the model-based approach a space-time model is exploited to predict global statistical parameters of interest such as the space-time mean. In the hybrid

Statistical methods in epidemiology. VII. An overview of the chi2 test for 2 x 2 contingency table analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigby, A S

2001-11-10

The odds ratio is an appropriate method of analysis for data in 2 x 2 contingency tables. However, other methods of analysis exist. One such method is based on the chi2 test of goodness-of-fit. Key players in the development of statistical theory include Pearson, Fisher and Yates. Data are presented in the form of 2 x 2 contingency tables and a method of analysis based on the chi2 test is introduced. There are many variations of the basic test statistic, one of which is the chi2 test with Yates' continuity correction. The usefulness (or not) of Yates' continuity correction is discussed. Problems of interpretation when the method is applied to k x m tables are highlighted. Some properties of the chi2 the test are illustrated by taking examples from the author's teaching experiences. Journal editors should be encouraged to give both observed and expected cell frequencies so that better information comes out of the chi2 test statistic.

Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

2008-01-01

To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

Finite Element Analysis of the Amontons-Coulomb's Model using Local and Global Friction Tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, M. C.; Menezes, L. F.; Ramalho, A.; Alves, J. L.

2011-01-01

In spite of the abundant number of experimental friction tests that have been reported, the contact with friction modeling persists to be one of the factors that determine the effectiveness of sheet metal forming simulation. This difficulty can be understood due to the nature of the friction phenomena, which comprises the interaction of different factors connected to both sheet and tools' surfaces. Although in finite element numerical simulations friction models are commonly applied at the local level, they normally rely on parameters identified based on global experimental tests results. The aim of this study is to analyze the applicability of the Amontons-Coulomb's friction coefficient identified using complementary tests: (i) load-scanning, at the local level and (ii) draw-bead, at the global level; to the numerical simulation of sheet metal forming processes.

Statistical strategies for global monitoring of tropical forests

Science.gov (United States)

Raymond L. Czaplewski

1991-01-01

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations is conducting a global assessment of tropical forest resources, which will be accomplished by mid-1992. This assessment requires, in part, estimates of the total area of tropical forest cover in 1990, and the rate of change in forest cover between 1980 and 1990. This paper describes: (1) the strategic...

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

2005-01-01

The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

Statistical power analysis a simple and general model for traditional and modern hypothesis tests

CERN Document Server

Murphy, Kevin R; Wolach, Allen

2014-01-01

Noted for its accessible approach, this text applies the latest approaches of power analysis to both null hypothesis and minimum-effect testing using the same basic unified model. Through the use of a few simple procedures and examples, the authors show readers with little expertise in statistical analysis how to obtain the values needed to carry out the power analysis for their research. Illustrations of how these analyses work and how they can be used to choose the appropriate criterion for defining statistically significant outcomes are sprinkled throughout. The book presents a simple and g

Statistical Analysis of Compressive and Flexural Test Results on the Sustainable Adobe Reinforced with Steel Wire Mesh

Science.gov (United States)

Jokhio, Gul A.; Syed Mohsin, Sharifah M.; Gul, Yasmeen

2018-04-01

It has been established that Adobe provides, in addition to being sustainable and economic, a better indoor air quality without spending extensive amounts of energy as opposed to the modern synthetic materials. The material, however, suffers from weak structural behaviour when subjected to adverse loading conditions. A wide range of mechanical properties has been reported in literature owing to lack of research and standardization. The present paper presents the statistical analysis of the results that were obtained through compressive and flexural tests on Adobe samples. Adobe specimens with and without wire mesh reinforcement were tested and the results were reported. The statistical analysis of these results presents an interesting read. It has been found that the compressive strength of adobe increases by about 43% after adding a single layer of wire mesh reinforcement. This increase is statistically significant. The flexural response of Adobe has also shown improvement with the addition of wire mesh reinforcement, however, the statistical significance of the same cannot be established.

Confidence intervals permit, but don't guarantee, better inference than statistical significance testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Coulson

2010-07-01

Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.

Why the null matters: statistical tests, random walks and evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheets, H D; Mitchell, C E

2001-01-01

A number of statistical tests have been developed to determine what type of dynamics underlie observed changes in morphology in evolutionary time series, based on the pattern of change within the time series. The theory of the 'scaled maximum', the 'log-rate-interval' (LRI) method, and the Hurst exponent all operate on the same principle of comparing the maximum change, or rate of change, in the observed dataset to the maximum change expected of a random walk. Less change in a dataset than expected of a random walk has been interpreted as indicating stabilizing selection, while more change implies directional selection. The 'runs test' in contrast, operates on the sequencing of steps, rather than on excursion. Applications of these tests to computer generated, simulated time series of known dynamical form and various levels of additive noise indicate that there is a fundamental asymmetry in the rate of type II errors of the tests based on excursion: they are all highly sensitive to noise in models of directional selection that result in a linear trend within a time series, but are largely noise immune in the case of a simple model of stabilizing selection. Additionally, the LRI method has a lower sensitivity than originally claimed, due to the large range of LRI rates produced by random walks. Examination of the published results of these tests show that they have seldom produced a conclusion that an observed evolutionary time series was due to directional selection, a result which needs closer examination in light of the asymmetric response of these tests.

Assessment of noise in a digital image using the join-count statistic and the Moran test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kehshih Chuang; Huang, H.K.

1992-01-01

It is assumed that data bits of a pixel in digital images can be divided into signal and noise bits. The signal bits occupy the most significant part of the pixel. The signal parts of each pixel are correlated while the noise parts are uncorrelated. Two statistical methods, the Moran test and the join-count statistic, are used to examine the noise parts. Images from computerized tomography, magnetic resonance and computed radiography are used for the evaluation of the noise bits. A residual image is formed by subtracting the original image from its smoothed version. The noise level in the residual image is then identical to that in the original image. Both statistical tests are then performed on the bit planes of the residual image. Results show that most digital images contain only 8-9 bits of correlated information. Both methods are easy to implement and fast to perform. (author)

A scan statistic to extract causal gene clusters from case-control genome-wide rare CNV data

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Scherer Stephen W

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several statistical tests have been developed for analyzing genome-wide association data by incorporating gene pathway information in terms of gene sets. Using these methods, hundreds of gene sets are typically tested, and the tested gene sets often overlap. This overlapping greatly increases the probability of generating false positives, and the results obtained are difficult to interpret, particularly when many gene sets show statistical significance. Results We propose a flexible statistical framework to circumvent these problems. Inspired by spatial scan statistics for detecting clustering of disease occurrence in the field of epidemiology, we developed a scan statistic to extract disease-associated gene clusters from a whole gene pathway. Extracting one or a few significant gene clusters from a global pathway limits the overall false positive probability, which results in increased statistical power, and facilitates the interpretation of test results. In the present study, we applied our method to genome-wide association data for rare copy-number variations, which have been strongly implicated in common diseases. Application of our method to a simulated dataset demonstrated the high accuracy of this method in detecting disease-associated gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. Conclusions The scan statistic approach proposed here shows a high level of accuracy in detecting gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. This study has provided a sound statistical framework for analyzing genome-wide rare CNV data by incorporating topological information on the gene pathway.

Statistical testing of the full-range leadership theory in nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanste, Outi; Kääriäinen, Maria; Kyngäs, Helvi

2009-12-01

The aim of this study is to test statistically the structure of the full-range leadership theory in nursing. The data were gathered by postal questionnaires from nurses and nurse leaders working in healthcare organizations in Finland. A follow-up study was performed 1 year later. The sample consisted of 601 nurses and nurse leaders, and the follow-up study had 78 respondents. Theory was tested through structural equation modelling, standard regression analysis and two-way anova. Rewarding transformational leadership seems to promote and passive laissez-faire leadership to reduce willingness to exert extra effort, perceptions of leader effectiveness and satisfaction with the leader. Active management-by-exception seems to reduce willingness to exert extra effort and perception of leader effectiveness. Rewarding transformational leadership remained as a strong explanatory factor of all outcome variables measured 1 year later. The data supported the main structure of the full-range leadership theory, lending support to the universal nature of the theory.

Statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Statistical processing of a particle multidetector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacombe, J.P.

1985-12-01

Statistic study of Poisson non-homogeneous and spatial processes is the first part of this thesis. A Neyman-Pearson type test is defined concerning the intensity measurement of these processes. Conditions are given for which consistency of the test is assured, and others giving the asymptotic normality of the test statistics. Then some techniques of statistic processing of Poisson fields and their applications to a particle multidetector study are given. Quality tests of the device are proposed togetherwith signal extraction methods [fr

Some Statistics for Measuring Large-Scale Structure

OpenAIRE

Brandenberger, Robert H.; Kaplan, David M.; A, Stephen; Ramsey

1993-01-01

Good statistics for measuring large-scale structure in the Universe must be able to distinguish between different models of structure formation. In this paper, two and three dimensional ``counts in cell" statistics and a new ``discrete genus statistic" are applied to toy versions of several popular theories of structure formation: random phase cold dark matter model, cosmic string models, and global texture scenario. All three statistics appear quite promising in terms of differentiating betw...

A practical model-based statistical approach for generating functional test cases: application in the automotive industry

OpenAIRE

Awédikian , Roy; Yannou , Bernard

2012-01-01

International audience; With the growing complexity of industrial software applications, industrials are looking for efficient and practical methods to validate the software. This paper develops a model-based statistical testing approach that automatically generates online and offline test cases for embedded software. It discusses an integrated framework that combines solutions for three major software testing research questions: (i) how to select test inputs; (ii) how to predict the expected...

Reliability Verification of DBE Environment Simulation Test Facility by using Statistics Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Kyung Nam; Kim, Jong Soeg; Jeong, Sun Chul; Kyung Heum

2011-01-01

In the nuclear power plant, all the safety-related equipment including cables under the harsh environment should perform the equipment qualification (EQ) according to the IEEE std 323. There are three types of qualification methods including type testing, operating experience and analysis. In order to environmentally qualify the safety-related equipment using type testing method, not analysis or operation experience method, the representative sample of equipment, including interfaces, should be subjected to a series of tests. Among these tests, Design Basis Events (DBE) environment simulating test is the most important test. DBE simulation test is performed in DBE simulation test chamber according to the postulated DBE conditions including specified high-energy line break (HELB), loss of coolant accident (LOCA), main steam line break (MSLB) and etc, after thermal and radiation aging. Because most DBE conditions have 100% humidity condition, in order to trace temperature and pressure of DBE condition, high temperature steam should be used. During DBE simulation test, if high temperature steam under high pressure inject to the DBE test chamber, the temperature and pressure in test chamber rapidly increase over the target temperature. Therefore, the temperature and pressure in test chamber continue fluctuating during the DBE simulation test to meet target temperature and pressure. We should ensure fairness and accuracy of test result by confirming the performance of DBE environment simulation test facility. In this paper, in order to verify reliability of DBE environment simulation test facility, statistics method is used

The intermediates take it all: asymptotics of higher criticism statistics and a powerful alternative based on equal local levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Gontscharuk, Veronika; Landwehr, Sandra; Finner, Helmut

2015-01-01

The higher criticism (HC) statistic, which can be seen as a normalized version of the famous Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, has a long history, dating back to the mid seventies. Originally, HC statistics were used in connection with goodness of fit (GOF) tests but they recently gained some attention in the context of testing the global null hypothesis in high dimensional data. The continuing interest for HC seems to be inspired by a series of nice asymptotic properties related to this statistic. For example, unlike Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, GOF tests based on the HC statistic are known to be asymptotically sensitive in the moderate tails, hence it is favorably applied for detecting the presence of signals in sparse mixture models. However, some questions around the asymptotic behavior of the HC statistic are still open. We focus on two of them, namely, why a specific intermediate range is crucial for GOF tests based on the HC statistic and why the convergence of the HC distribution to the limiting one is extremely slow. Moreover, the inconsistency in the asymptotic and finite behavior of the HC statistic prompts us to provide a new HC test that has better finite properties than the original HC test while showing the same asymptotics. This test is motivated by the asymptotic behavior of the so-called local levels related to the original HC test. By means of numerical calculations and simulations we show that the new HC test is typically more powerful than the original HC test in normal mixture models. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Filtering a statistically exactly solvable test model for turbulent tracers from partial observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gershgorin, B.; Majda, A.J.

2011-01-01

A statistically exactly solvable model for passive tracers is introduced as a test model for the authors' Nonlinear Extended Kalman Filter (NEKF) as well as other filtering algorithms. The model involves a Gaussian velocity field and a passive tracer governed by the advection-diffusion equation with an imposed mean gradient. The model has direct relevance to engineering problems such as the spread of pollutants in the air or contaminants in the water as well as climate change problems concerning the transport of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide with strongly intermittent probability distributions consistent with the actual observations of the atmosphere. One of the attractive properties of the model is the existence of the exact statistical solution. In particular, this unique feature of the model provides an opportunity to design and test fast and efficient algorithms for real-time data assimilation based on rigorous mathematical theory for a turbulence model problem with many active spatiotemporal scales. Here, we extensively study the performance of the NEKF which uses the exact first and second order nonlinear statistics without any approximations due to linearization. The role of partial and sparse observations, the frequency of observations and the observation noise strength in recovering the true signal, its spectrum, and fat tail probability distribution are the central issues discussed here. The results of our study provide useful guidelines for filtering realistic turbulent systems with passive tracers through partial observations.

Brain SPECT analysis using statistical parametric mapping in patients with transient global amnesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, E. N.; Sohn, H. S.; Kim, S. H; Chung, S. K.; Yang, D. W. [College of Medicine, The Catholic Univ. of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2001-07-01

This study investigated alterations in regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in patients with transient global amnesia (TGA) using statistical parametric mapping 99 (SPM99). Noninvasive rCBF measurements using 99mTc-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) SPECT were performed on 8 patients with TGA and 17 age matched controls. The relative rCBF maps in patients with TGA and controls were compared. In patients with TGA, significantly decreased rCBF was found along the left superior temporal extending to left parietal region of the brain and left thalamus. There were areas of increased rCBF in the right temporal, right frontal region and right thalamus. We could demonstrate decreased perfusion in left cerebral hemisphere and increased perfusion in right cerebral hemisphere in patients with TGA using SPM99. The reciprocal change of rCBF between right and left cerebral hemisphere in patients with TGA might suggest that imbalanced neuronal activity between the bilateral hemispheres may be important role in the pathogenesis of the TGA. For quantitative SPECT analysis in TGA patients, we recommend SPM99 rather than the ROI method because of its definitive advantages.

Brain SPECT analysis using statistical parametric mapping in patients with transient global amnesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, E. N.; Sohn, H. S.; Kim, S. H; Chung, S. K.; Yang, D. W.

2001-01-01

This study investigated alterations in regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in patients with transient global amnesia (TGA) using statistical parametric mapping 99 (SPM99). Noninvasive rCBF measurements using 99mTc-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) SPECT were performed on 8 patients with TGA and 17 age matched controls. The relative rCBF maps in patients with TGA and controls were compared. In patients with TGA, significantly decreased rCBF was found along the left superior temporal extending to left parietal region of the brain and left thalamus. There were areas of increased rCBF in the right temporal, right frontal region and right thalamus. We could demonstrate decreased perfusion in left cerebral hemisphere and increased perfusion in right cerebral hemisphere in patients with TGA using SPM99. The reciprocal change of rCBF between right and left cerebral hemisphere in patients with TGA might suggest that imbalanced neuronal activity between the bilateral hemispheres may be important role in the pathogenesis of the TGA. For quantitative SPECT analysis in TGA patients, we recommend SPM99 rather than the ROI method because of its definitive advantages

Thinking Globally, Acting Locally: Using the Local Environment to Explore Global Issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Simmons, Deborah

1994-01-01

Asserts that water pollution is a global problem and presents statistics indicating how much of the world's water is threatened. Presents three elementary school classroom activities on water quality and local water resources. Includes a figure describing the work of the Global Rivers Environmental Education Network. (CFR)

Statistical energy as a tool for binning-free, multivariate goodness-of-fit tests, two-sample comparison and unfolding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aslan, B.; Zech, G.

2005-01-01

We introduce the novel concept of statistical energy as a statistical tool. We define statistical energy of statistical distributions in a similar way as for electric charge distributions. Charges of opposite sign are in a state of minimum energy if they are equally distributed. This property is used to check whether two samples belong to the same parent distribution, to define goodness-of-fit tests and to unfold distributions distorted by measurement. The approach is binning-free and especially powerful in multidimensional applications

Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hachey Mark

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier detection has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*pop; and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. Results For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*pop had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*pop (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. Conclusion SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*pop perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for

Empirical Statistical Power for Testing Multilocus Genotypic Effects under Unbalanced Designs Using a Gibbs Sampler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaeyoung Lee

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Epistasis that may explain a large portion of the phenotypic variation for complex economic traits of animals has been ignored in many genetic association studies. A Baysian method was introduced to draw inferences about multilocus genotypic effects based on their marginal posterior distributions by a Gibbs sampler. A simulation study was conducted to provide statistical powers under various unbalanced designs by using this method. Data were simulated by combined designs of number of loci, within genotype variance, and sample size in unbalanced designs with or without null combined genotype cells. Mean empirical statistical power was estimated for testing posterior mean estimate of combined genotype effect. A practical example for obtaining empirical statistical power estimates with a given sample size was provided under unbalanced designs. The empirical statistical powers would be useful for determining an optimal design when interactive associations of multiple loci with complex phenotypes were examined.

The extended statistical analysis of toxicity tests using standardised effect sizes (SESs): a comparison of nine published papers.

Science.gov (United States)

Festing, Michael F W

2014-01-01

The safety of chemicals, drugs, novel foods and genetically modified crops is often tested using repeat-dose sub-acute toxicity tests in rats or mice. It is important to avoid misinterpretations of the results as these tests are used to help determine safe exposure levels in humans. Treated and control groups are compared for a range of haematological, biochemical and other biomarkers which may indicate tissue damage or other adverse effects. However, the statistical analysis and presentation of such data poses problems due to the large number of statistical tests which are involved. Often, it is not clear whether a "statistically significant" effect is real or a false positive (type I error) due to sampling variation. The author's conclusions appear to be reached somewhat subjectively by the pattern of statistical significances, discounting those which they judge to be type I errors and ignoring any biomarker where the p-value is greater than p = 0.05. However, by using standardised effect sizes (SESs) a range of graphical methods and an over-all assessment of the mean absolute response can be made. The approach is an extension, not a replacement of existing methods. It is intended to assist toxicologists and regulators in the interpretation of the results. Here, the SES analysis has been applied to data from nine published sub-acute toxicity tests in order to compare the findings with those of the author's. Line plots, box plots and bar plots show the pattern of response. Dose-response relationships are easily seen. A "bootstrap" test compares the mean absolute differences across dose groups. In four out of seven papers where the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) was estimated by the authors, it was set too high according to the bootstrap test, suggesting that possible toxicity is under-estimated.

The extended statistical analysis of toxicity tests using standardised effect sizes (SESs: a comparison of nine published papers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F W Festing

Full Text Available The safety of chemicals, drugs, novel foods and genetically modified crops is often tested using repeat-dose sub-acute toxicity tests in rats or mice. It is important to avoid misinterpretations of the results as these tests are used to help determine safe exposure levels in humans. Treated and control groups are compared for a range of haematological, biochemical and other biomarkers which may indicate tissue damage or other adverse effects. However, the statistical analysis and presentation of such data poses problems due to the large number of statistical tests which are involved. Often, it is not clear whether a "statistically significant" effect is real or a false positive (type I error due to sampling variation. The author's conclusions appear to be reached somewhat subjectively by the pattern of statistical significances, discounting those which they judge to be type I errors and ignoring any biomarker where the p-value is greater than p = 0.05. However, by using standardised effect sizes (SESs a range of graphical methods and an over-all assessment of the mean absolute response can be made. The approach is an extension, not a replacement of existing methods. It is intended to assist toxicologists and regulators in the interpretation of the results. Here, the SES analysis has been applied to data from nine published sub-acute toxicity tests in order to compare the findings with those of the author's. Line plots, box plots and bar plots show the pattern of response. Dose-response relationships are easily seen. A "bootstrap" test compares the mean absolute differences across dose groups. In four out of seven papers where the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL was estimated by the authors, it was set too high according to the bootstrap test, suggesting that possible toxicity is under-estimated.

Global statistics of liquid water content and effective number density of water clouds over ocean derived from combined CALIPSO and MODIS measurements

OpenAIRE

Y. Hu; M. Vaughan; C. McClain; M. Behrenfeld; H. Maring; D. Anderson; S. Sun-Mack; D. Flittner; J. Huang; B. Wielicki; P. Minnis; C. Weimer; C. Trepte; R. Kuehn

2007-01-01

International audience; This study presents an empirical relation that links layer integrated depolarization ratios, the extinction coefficients, and effective radii of water clouds, based on Monte Carlo simulations of CALIPSO lidar observations. Combined with cloud effective radius retrieved from MODIS, cloud liquid water content and effective number density of water clouds are estimated from CALIPSO lidar depolarization measurements in this study. Global statistics of the cloud liquid water...

Error Analysis of Determining Airplane Location by Global Positioning System

OpenAIRE

Hajiyev, Chingiz; Burat, Alper

1999-01-01

This paper studies the error analysis of determining airplane location by global positioning system (GPS) using statistical testing method. The Newton Rhapson method positions the airplane at the intersection point of four spheres. Absolute errors, relative errors and standard deviation have been calculated The results show that the positioning error of the airplane varies with the coordinates of GPS satellite and the airplane.

Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Miller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of- care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Miller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D

Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

A Critique of One-Tailed Hypothesis Test Procedures in Business and Economics Statistics Textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tung; Stone, Courtenay C.

1999-01-01

Surveys introductory business and economics statistics textbooks and finds that they differ over the best way to explain one-tailed hypothesis tests: the simple null-hypothesis approach or the composite null-hypothesis approach. Argues that the composite null-hypothesis approach contains methodological shortcomings that make it more difficult for…

Statistical Analysis of the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) Field Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Ekness, Jamie Lynn

The North Dakota farming industry brings in more than $4.1 billion annually in cash receipts. Unfortunately, agriculture sales vary significantly from year to year, which is due in large part to weather events such as hail storms and droughts. One method to mitigate drought is to use hygroscopic seeding to increase the precipitation efficiency of clouds. The North Dakota Atmospheric Research Board (NDARB) sponsored the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) research project to determine the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota. The POLCAST field projects obtained airborne and radar observations, while conducting randomized cloud seeding. The Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) program is used to analyze radar data (33 usable cases) in determining differences in the duration of the storm, rain rate and total rain amount between seeded and non-seeded clouds. The single ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases is 1.56 (0.28 mm/0.18 mm) or 56% increase for the average hourly rainfall during the first 60 minutes after target selection. A seeding effect is indicated with the lifetime of the storms increasing by 41 % between seeded and non-seeded clouds for the first 60 minutes past seeding decision. A double ratio statistic, a comparison of radar derived rain amount of the last 40 minutes of a case (seed/non-seed), compared to the first 20 minutes (seed/non-seed), is used to account for the natural variability of the cloud system and gives a double ratio of 1.85. The Mann-Whitney test on the double ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases (33 cases) gives a significance (p-value) of 0.063. Bootstrapping analysis of the POLCAST set indicates that 50 cases would provide statistically significant results based on the Mann-Whitney test of the double ratio. All the statistical analysis conducted on the POLCAST data set show that hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota does increase precipitation. While an additional POLCAST field

Stability of fundamental couplings: A global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, C. J. A. P.; Pinho, A. M. M.

2017-01-01

Astrophysical tests of the stability of fundamental couplings are becoming an increasingly important probe of new physics. Motivated by the recent availability of new and stronger constraints we update previous works testing the consistency of measurements of the fine-structure constant α and the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ =mp/me (mostly obtained in the optical/ultraviolet) with combined measurements of α , μ and the proton gyromagnetic ratio gp (mostly in the radio band). We carry out a global analysis of all available data, including the 293 archival measurements of Webb et al. and 66 more recent dedicated measurements, and constraining both time and spatial variations. While nominally the full data sets show a slight statistical preference for variations of α and μ (at up to two standard deviations), we also find several inconsistencies between different subsets, likely due to hidden systematics and implying that these statistical preferences need to be taken with caution. The statistical evidence for a spatial dipole in the values of α is found at the 2.3 sigma level. Forthcoming studies with facilities such as ALMA and ESPRESSO should clarify these issues.

A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

2007-01-01

The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...

Using Cochran's Z Statistic to Test the Kernel-Smoothed Item Response Function Differences between Focal and Reference Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yinggan; Gierl, Mark J.; Cui, Ying

2010-01-01

This study combined the kernel smoothing procedure and a nonparametric differential item functioning statistic--Cochran's Z--to statistically test the difference between the kernel-smoothed item response functions for reference and focal groups. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the Type I error and power of the proposed…

Global statistics of liquid water content and effective number density of water clouds over ocean derived from combined CALIPSO and MODIS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Y.; Vaughan, M.; McClain, C.; Behrenfeld, M.; Maring, H.; Anderson, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Flittner, D.; Huang, J.; Wielicki, B.; Minnis, P.; Weimer, C.; Trepte, C.; Kuehn, R.

2007-03-01

This study presents an empirical relation that links layer integrated depolarization ratios, the extinction coefficients, and effective radii of water clouds, based on Monte Carlo simulations of CALIPSO lidar observations. Combined with cloud effective radius retrieved from MODIS, cloud liquid water content and effective number density of water clouds are estimated from CALIPSO lidar depolarization measurements in this study. Global statistics of the cloud liquid water content and effective number density are presented.

R for statistics

CERN Document Server

Cornillon, Pierre-Andre; Husson, Francois; Jegou, Nicolas; Josse, Julie; Kloareg, Maela; Matzner-Lober, Eric; Rouviere, Laurent

2012-01-01

An Overview of RMain ConceptsInstalling RWork SessionHelpR ObjectsFunctionsPackagesExercisesPreparing DataReading Data from FileExporting ResultsManipulating VariablesManipulating IndividualsConcatenating Data TablesCross-TabulationExercisesR GraphicsConventional Graphical FunctionsGraphical Functions with latticeExercisesMaking Programs with RControl FlowsPredefined FunctionsCreating a FunctionExercisesStatistical MethodsIntroduction to the Statistical MethodsA Quick Start with RInstalling ROpening and Closing RThe Command PromptAttribution, Objects, and FunctionSelectionOther Rcmdr PackageImporting (or Inputting) DataGraphsStatistical AnalysisHypothesis TestConfidence Intervals for a MeanChi-Square Test of IndependenceComparison of Two MeansTesting Conformity of a ProportionComparing Several ProportionsThe Power of a TestRegressionSimple Linear RegressionMultiple Linear RegressionPartial Least Squares (PLS) RegressionAnalysis of Variance and CovarianceOne-Way Analysis of VarianceMulti-Way Analysis of Varian...

Do Methods Matter in Global Leadership Development? Testing the Global Leadership Development Ecosystem Conceptual Model

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Jennie L.

2018-01-01

As world communication, technology, and trade become increasingly integrated through globalization, multinational corporations seek employees with global leadership skills. However, the demand for these skills currently outweighs the supply. Given the rarity of globally ready leaders, global competency development should be emphasized in business…

Seismic waveform inversion best practices: regional, global and exploration test cases

Science.gov (United States)

Modrak, Ryan; Tromp, Jeroen

2016-09-01

Reaching the global minimum of a waveform misfit function requires careful choices about the nonlinear optimization, preconditioning and regularization methods underlying an inversion. Because waveform inversion problems are susceptible to erratic convergence associated with strong nonlinearity, one or two test cases are not enough to reliably inform such decisions. We identify best practices, instead, using four seismic near-surface problems, one regional problem and two global problems. To make meaningful quantitative comparisons between methods, we carry out hundreds of inversions, varying one aspect of the implementation at a time. Comparing nonlinear optimization algorithms, we find that limited-memory BFGS provides computational savings over nonlinear conjugate gradient methods in a wide range of test cases. Comparing preconditioners, we show that a new diagonal scaling derived from the adjoint of the forward operator provides better performance than two conventional preconditioning schemes. Comparing regularization strategies, we find that projection, convolution, Tikhonov regularization and total variation regularization are effective in different contexts. Besides questions of one strategy or another, reliability and efficiency in waveform inversion depend on close numerical attention and care. Implementation details involving the line search and restart conditions have a strong effect on computational cost, regardless of the chosen nonlinear optimization algorithm.

Statistical inference based on divergence measures

CERN Document Server

Pardo, Leandro

2005-01-01

The idea of using functionals of Information Theory, such as entropies or divergences, in statistical inference is not new. However, in spite of the fact that divergence statistics have become a very good alternative to the classical likelihood ratio test and the Pearson-type statistic in discrete models, many statisticians remain unaware of this powerful approach.Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures explores classical problems of statistical inference, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, on the basis of measures of entropy and divergence. The first two chapters form an overview, from a statistical perspective, of the most important measures of entropy and divergence and study their properties. The author then examines the statistical analysis of discrete multivariate data with emphasis is on problems in contingency tables and loglinear models using phi-divergence test statistics as well as minimum phi-divergence estimators. The final chapter looks at testing in general populations, prese...

Homogeneity testing of the global ESA CCI multi-satellite soil moisture climate data record

Science.gov (United States)

Preimesberger, Wolfgang; Su, Chun-Hsu; Gruber, Alexander; Dorigo, Wouter

2017-04-01

ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) creates a global, long-term data record by merging multiple available earth observation products with the goal to provide a product for climate studies, trend analysis, and risk assessments. The blending of soil moisture (SM) time series derived from different active and passive remote sensing instruments with varying sensor characteristics, such as microwave frequency, signal polarization or radiometric accuracy, could potentially lead to inhomogeneities in the merged long-term data series, undercutting the usefulness of the product. To detect the spatio-temporal extent of contiguous periods without inhomogeneities as well as subsequently minimizing their negative impact on the data records, different relative homogeneity tests (namely Fligner-Killeen test of homogeneity of variances and Wilcoxon rank-sums test) are implemented and tested on the combined active-passive ESA CCI SM data set. Inhomogeneities are detected by comparing the data against reference data from in-situ data from ISMN, and model-based estimates from GLDAS-Noah and MERRA-Land. Inhomogeneity testing is performed over the ESA CCI SM data time frame of 38 years (from 1978 to 2015), on a global quarter-degree grid and with regard to six alterations in the combination of observation systems used in the data blending process. This study describes and explains observed variations in the spatial and temporal patterns of inhomogeneities in the combined products. Besides we proposes methodologies for measuring and reducing the impact of inhomogeneities on trends derived from the ESA CCI SM data set, and suggest the use of inhomogeneity-corrected data for future trend studies. This study is supported by the European Union's FP7 EartH2Observe "Global Earth Observation for Integrated Water Resource Assessment" project (grant agreement number 331 603608).

Statistical methods for conducting agreement (comparison of clinical tests) and precision (repeatability or reproducibility) studies in optometry and ophthalmology.

Science.gov (United States)

McAlinden, Colm; Khadka, Jyoti; Pesudovs, Konrad

2011-07-01

The ever-expanding choice of ocular metrology and imaging equipment has driven research into the validity of their measurements. Consequently, studies of the agreement between two instruments or clinical tests have proliferated in the ophthalmic literature. It is important that researchers apply the appropriate statistical tests in agreement studies. Correlation coefficients are hazardous and should be avoided. The 'limits of agreement' method originally proposed by Altman and Bland in 1983 is the statistical procedure of choice. Its step-by-step use and practical considerations in relation to optometry and ophthalmology are detailed in addition to sample size considerations and statistical approaches to precision (repeatability or reproducibility) estimates. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2011 The College of Optometrists.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-08

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ke Li

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-01

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

Statistics For Dummies

CERN Document Server

Rumsey, Deborah

2011-01-01

The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics Stymied by statistics? No fear ? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life. Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics cou

Nuclear multifragmentation, its relation to general physics. A rich test ground of the fundamentals of statistical mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gross, D.H.E.

2006-01-01

Heat can flow from cold to hot at any phase separation even in macroscopic systems. Therefore also Lynden-Bell's famous gravo-thermal catastrophe must be reconsidered. In contrast to traditional canonical Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics this is correctly described only by microcanonical statistics. Systems studied in chemical thermodynamics (ChTh) by using canonical statistics consist of several homogeneous macroscopic phases. Evidently, macroscopic statistics as in chemistry cannot and should not be applied to non-extensive or inhomogeneous systems like nuclei or galaxies. Nuclei are small and inhomogeneous. Multifragmented nuclei are even more inhomogeneous and the fragments even smaller. Phase transitions of first order and especially phase separations therefore cannot be described by a (homogeneous) canonical ensemble. Taking this serious, fascinating perspectives open for statistical nuclear fragmentation as test ground for the basic principles of statistical mechanics, especially of phase transitions, without the use of the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, there is also a lot of similarity between the accessible phase space of fragmenting nuclei and inhomogeneous multistellar systems. This underlines the fundamental significance for statistical physics in general. (orig.)

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING DENGAN PERGESERAN WAKTU BERDASARKAN KORELASI SILANG

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aji Hamim Wigena

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Pergeseran waktu (time lag dalam analisis data deret waktu diperlukan terutama untuk analisis hubungan dua peubah (variable, seperti dalam statistical downscaling. Pergeseran waktu ini ditentukan berdasarkan korelasi silang tinggi yang setara dengan hubungan yang kuat antar kedua peubah tersebut sehingga dapat digunakan dalam pemodelan untuk prakiraan yang lebih akurat. Makalah ini mengenai statistical downscaling dengan memperhatikan korelasi silang antara data curah hujan dengan data presipitasi Global Circulation Model (GCM dari Climate Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP5. Salah satu syarat dalam statistical downscaling adalah peubah  skala lokal dan global berkorelasi tinggi. Kedua tipe peubah tersebut berupa data deret waktu sehingga fungsi korelasi silang diterapkan untuk memperoleh pergeseran waktu. Korelasi silang yang tinggi menentukan pergeseran waktu pada luaran GCM yang menghasilkan hubungan fungsional lebih kuat antara kedua tipe peubah. Model regresi komponen utama dan regresi kuadrat terkecil parsial digunakan dalam makalah ini. Model-model dengan pergeseran waktu menduga curah hujan lebih baik daripada model-model tanpa pergeseran waktu.   Time lag in time series data analysis is required especially to analyze the relationship of two variables, such as in statistical downscaling. Time lag is determined based on high cross correlation which is equivalent to strong relationship between the two variables and can be used in modeling for a more accurate forecast. This paper is about  statistical downscaling by considering the cross correlation between rainfall data and precipitation data from Global Circulation Model (GCM of Climate Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP5. One of the conditions in statistical downscaling is that local scale and global scale variables are highly correlated. Both types of variables are time series data, thus cross correlation function is applied to find time lags. High cross correlation determines

Selection of hidden layer nodes in neural networks by statistical tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciftcioglu, Ozer

1992-05-01

A statistical methodology for selection of the number of hidden layer nodes in feedforward neural networks is described. The method considers the network as an empirical model for the experimental data set subject to pattern classification so that the selection process becomes a model estimation through parameter identification. The solution is performed for an overdetermined estimation problem for identification using nonlinear least squares minimization technique. The number of the hidden layer nodes is determined as result of hypothesis testing. Accordingly the redundant network structure with respect to the number of parameters is avoided and the classification error being kept to a minimum. (author). 11 refs.; 4 figs.; 1 tab

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

KAUST Repository

Mahajan, Salil

2011-05-11

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Evaluation of PDA Technical Report No 33. Statistical Testing Recommendations for a Rapid Microbiological Method Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Thomas; Schwedock, Julie; Nguyen, Kham; Mills, Anna; Jones, David

2015-01-01

New recommendations for the validation of rapid microbiological methods have been included in the revised Technical Report 33 release from the PDA. The changes include a more comprehensive review of the statistical methods to be used to analyze data obtained during validation. This case study applies those statistical methods to accuracy, precision, ruggedness, and equivalence data obtained using a rapid microbiological methods system being evaluated for water bioburden testing. Results presented demonstrate that the statistical methods described in the PDA Technical Report 33 chapter can all be successfully applied to the rapid microbiological method data sets and gave the same interpretation for equivalence to the standard method. The rapid microbiological method was in general able to pass the requirements of PDA Technical Report 33, though the study shows that there can be occasional outlying results and that caution should be used when applying statistical methods to low average colony-forming unit values. Prior to use in a quality-controlled environment, any new method or technology has to be shown to work as designed by the manufacturer for the purpose required. For new rapid microbiological methods that detect and enumerate contaminating microorganisms, additional recommendations have been provided in the revised PDA Technical Report No. 33. The changes include a more comprehensive review of the statistical methods to be used to analyze data obtained during validation. This paper applies those statistical methods to analyze accuracy, precision, ruggedness, and equivalence data obtained using a rapid microbiological method system being validated for water bioburden testing. The case study demonstrates that the statistical methods described in the PDA Technical Report No. 33 chapter can be successfully applied to rapid microbiological method data sets and give the same comparability results for similarity or difference as the standard method. © PDA, Inc

A statistical test for the habitable zone concept

Science.gov (United States)

Checlair, J.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

Traditional habitable zone theory assumes that the silicate-weathering feedback regulates the atmospheric CO2 of planets within the habitable zone to maintain surface temperatures that allow for liquid water. There is some non-definitive evidence that this feedback has worked in Earth history, but it is untested in an exoplanet context. A critical prediction of the silicate-weathering feedback is that, on average, within the habitable zone planets that receive a higher stellar flux should have a lower CO2 in order to maintain liquid water at their surface. We can test this prediction directly by using a statistical approach involving low-precision CO2 measurements on many planets with future instruments such as JWST, LUVOIR, or HabEx. The purpose of this work is to carefully outline the requirements for such a test. First, we use a radiative-transfer model to compute the amount of CO2 necessary to maintain surface liquid water on planets for different values of insolation and planetary parameters. We run a large ensemble of Earth-like planets with different masses, atmospheric masses, inert atmospheric composition, cloud composition and level, and other greenhouse gases. Second, we post-process this data to determine the precision with which future instruments such as JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx could measure the CO2. We then combine the variation due to planetary parameters and observational error to determine the number of planet measurements that would be needed to effectively marginalize over uncertainties and resolve the predicted trend in CO2 vs. stellar flux. The results of this work may influence the usage of JWST and will enhance mission planning for LUVOIR and HabEx.

Statistical characterization of global Sea Surface Salinity for SMOS level 3 and 4 products

Science.gov (United States)

Gourrion, J.; Aretxabaleta, A. L.; Ballabrera, J.; Mourre, B.

2009-04-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission of the European Space Agency will soon provide sea surface salinity (SSS) estimates to the scientific community. Because of the numerous geophysical contamination sources and the instrument complexity, the salinity products will have a low signal to noise ratio at level 2 (individual estimates??) that is expected to increase up to mission requirements (0.1 psu) at level 3 (global maps with regular distribution) after spatio-temporal accumulation of the observations. Geostatistical methods such as Optimal Interpolation are being implemented at the level 3/4 production centers to operate this noise reduction step. The methodologies require auxiliary information about SSS statistics that, under Gaussian assumption, consist in the mean field and the covariance of the departures from it. The present study is a contribution to the definition of the best estimates for mean field and covariances to be used in the near-future SMOS level 3 and 4 products. We use complementary information from sparse in-situ observations and imperfect outputs from state-of-art model simulations. Various estimates of the mean field are compared. An alternative is the use of a SSS climatology such as the one provided by the World Ocean Atlas 2005. An historical SSS dataset from the World Ocean Database 2005 is reanalyzed and combined with the recent global observations obtained by the Array for Real-Time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO). Regional tendencies in the long-term temporal evolution of the near-surface ocean salinity are evident, suggesting that the use of a SSS climatology to describe the current mean field may introduce biases of magnitude similar to the precision goal. Consequently, a recent SSS dataset may be preferred to define the mean field needed for SMOS level 3 and 4 production. The in-situ observation network allows a global mapping of the low frequency component of the variability, i.e. decadal, interannual and seasonal

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: Should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Science.gov (United States)

Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S

2016-02-01

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance on naturalistic virtual reality tasks depends on global cognitive functioning as assessed via traditional neurocognitive tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Jorge; Gamito, Pedro; Alghazzawi, Daniyal M; Fardoun, Habib M; Rosa, Pedro J; Sousa, Tatiana; Picareli, Luís Felipe; Morais, Diogo; Lopes, Paulo

2017-08-14

This investigation sought to understand whether performance in naturalistic virtual reality tasks for cognitive assessment relates to the cognitive domains that are supposed to be measured. The Shoe Closet Test (SCT) was developed based on a simple visual search task involving attention skills, in which participants have to match each pair of shoes with the colors of the compartments in a virtual shoe closet. The interaction within the virtual environment was made using the Microsoft Kinect. The measures consisted of concurrent paper-and-pencil neurocognitive tests for global cognitive functioning, executive functions, attention, psychomotor ability, and the outcomes of the SCT. The results showed that the SCT correlated with global cognitive performance as measured with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). The SCT explained one third of the total variance of this test and revealed good sensitivity and specificity in discriminating scores below one standard deviation in this screening tool. These findings suggest that performance of such functional tasks involves a broad range of cognitive processes that are associated with global cognitive functioning and that may be difficult to isolate through paper-and-pencil neurocognitive tests.

Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

2013-01-01

Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter

Transfer of drug dissolution testing by statistical approaches: Case study

Science.gov (United States)

AL-Kamarany, Mohammed Amood; EL Karbane, Miloud; Ridouan, Khadija; Alanazi, Fars K.; Hubert, Philippe; Cherrah, Yahia; Bouklouze, Abdelaziz

2011-01-01

The analytical transfer is a complete process that consists in transferring an analytical procedure from a sending laboratory to a receiving laboratory. After having experimentally demonstrated that also masters the procedure in order to avoid problems in the future. Method of transfers is now commonplace during the life cycle of analytical method in the pharmaceutical industry. No official guideline exists for a transfer methodology in pharmaceutical analysis and the regulatory word of transfer is more ambiguous than for validation. Therefore, in this study, Gauge repeatability and reproducibility (R&R) studies associated with other multivariate statistics appropriates were successfully applied for the transfer of the dissolution test of diclofenac sodium as a case study from a sending laboratory A (accredited laboratory) to a receiving laboratory B. The HPLC method for the determination of the percent release of diclofenac sodium in solid pharmaceutical forms (one is the discovered product and another generic) was validated using accuracy profile (total error) in the sender laboratory A. The results showed that the receiver laboratory B masters the test dissolution process, using the same HPLC analytical procedure developed in laboratory A. In conclusion, if the sender used the total error to validate its analytical method, dissolution test can be successfully transferred without mastering the analytical method validation by receiving laboratory B and the pharmaceutical analysis method state should be maintained to ensure the same reliable results in the receiving laboratory. PMID:24109204

On the efficiency of chaos optimization algorithms for global optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Dixiong; Li Gang; Cheng Gengdong

2007-01-01

Chaos optimization algorithms as a novel method of global optimization have attracted much attention, which were all based on Logistic map. However, we have noticed that the probability density function of the chaotic sequences derived from Logistic map is a Chebyshev-type one, which may affect the global searching capacity and computational efficiency of chaos optimization algorithms considerably. Considering the statistical property of the chaotic sequences of Logistic map and Kent map, the improved hybrid chaos-BFGS optimization algorithm and the Kent map based hybrid chaos-BFGS algorithm are proposed. Five typical nonlinear functions with multimodal characteristic are tested to compare the performance of five hybrid optimization algorithms, which are the conventional Logistic map based chaos-BFGS algorithm, improved Logistic map based chaos-BFGS algorithm, Kent map based chaos-BFGS algorithm, Monte Carlo-BFGS algorithm, mesh-BFGS algorithm. The computational performance of the five algorithms is compared, and the numerical results make us question the high efficiency of the chaos optimization algorithms claimed in some references. It is concluded that the efficiency of the hybrid optimization algorithms is influenced by the statistical property of chaotic/stochastic sequences generated from chaotic/stochastic algorithms, and the location of the global optimum of nonlinear functions. In addition, it is inappropriate to advocate the high efficiency of the global optimization algorithms only depending on several numerical examples of low-dimensional functions

Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1: tests for correlation and regression analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Faul, Franz; Erdfelder, Edgar; Buchner, Axel; Lang, Albert-Georg

2009-11-01

G*Power is a free power analysis program for a variety of statistical tests. We present extensions and improvements of the version introduced by Faul, Erdfelder, Lang, and Buchner (2007) in the domain of correlation and regression analyses. In the new version, we have added procedures to analyze the power of tests based on (1) single-sample tetrachoric correlations, (2) comparisons of dependent correlations, (3) bivariate linear regression, (4) multiple linear regression based on the random predictor model, (5) logistic regression, and (6) Poisson regression. We describe these new features and provide a brief introduction to their scope and handling.

Usage statistics and demonstrator services

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2007-01-01

An understanding of the use of repositories and their contents is clearly desirable for authors and repository managers alike, as well as those who are analysing the state of scholarly communications. A number of individual initiatives have produced statistics of variious kinds for individual repositories, but the real challenge is to produce statistics that can be collected and compared transparently on a global scale. This presentation details the steps to be taken to address the issues to attain this capability View Les Carr's biography

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Testing of a "smart-pebble" for measuring particle transport statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Kitsikoudis, Vasileios; Avgeris, Loukas; Valyrakis, Manousos

2017-04-01

This paper presents preliminary results from novel experiments aiming to assess coarse sediment transport statistics for a range of transport conditions, via the use of an innovative "smart-pebble" device. This device is a waterproof sphere, which has 7 cm diameter and is equipped with a number of sensors that provide information about the velocity, acceleration and positioning of the "smart-pebble" within the flow field. A series of specifically designed experiments are carried out to monitor the entrainment of a "smart-pebble" for fully developed, uniform, turbulent flow conditions over a hydraulically rough bed. Specifically, the bed surface is configured to three sections, each of them consisting of well packed glass beads of slightly increasing size at the downstream direction. The first section has a streamwise length of L1=150 cm and beads size of D1=15 mm, the second section has a length of L2=85 cm and beads size of D2=22 mm, and the third bed section has a length of L3=55 cm and beads size of D3=25.4 mm. Two cameras monitor the area of interest to provide additional information regarding the "smart-pebble" movement. Three-dimensional flow measurements are obtained with the aid of an acoustic Doppler velocimeter along a measurement grid to assess the flow forcing field. A wide range of flow rates near and above the threshold of entrainment is tested, while using four distinct densities for the "smart-pebble", which can affect its transport speed and total momentum. The acquired data are analyzed to derive Lagrangian transport statistics and the implications of such an important experiment for the transport of particles by rolling are discussed. The flow conditions for the initiation of motion, particle accelerations and equilibrium particle velocities (translating into transport rates), statistics of particle impact and its motion, can be extracted from the acquired data, which can be further compared to develop meaningful insights for sediment transport

Statistical Decision Theory Estimation, Testing, and Selection

CERN Document Server

Liese, Friedrich

2008-01-01

Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory

Mapping the global health employment market: an analysis of global health jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Keralis, Jessica M; Riggin-Pathak, Brianne L; Majeski, Theresa; Pathak, Bogdan A; Foggia, Janine; Cullinen, Kathleen M; Rajagopal, Abbhirami; West, Heidi S

2018-02-27

The number of university global health training programs has grown in recent years. However, there is little research on the needs of the global health profession. We therefore set out to characterize the global health employment market by analyzing global health job vacancies. We collected data from advertised, paid positions posted to web-based job boards, email listservs, and global health organization websites from November 2015 to May 2016. Data on requirements for education, language proficiency, technical expertise, physical location, and experience level were analyzed for all vacancies. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the aforementioned job characteristics. Associations between technical specialty area and requirements for non-English language proficiency and overseas experience were calculated using Chi-square statistics. A qualitative thematic analysis was performed on a subset of vacancies. We analyzed the data from 1007 global health job vacancies from 127 employers. Among private and non-profit sector vacancies, 40% (n = 354) were for technical or subject matter experts, 20% (n = 177) for program directors, and 16% (n = 139) for managers, compared to 9.8% (n = 87) for entry-level and 13.6% (n = 120) for mid-level positions. The most common technical focus area was program or project management, followed by HIV/AIDS and quantitative analysis. Thematic analysis demonstrated a common emphasis on program operations, relations, design and planning, communication, and management. Our analysis shows a demand for candidates with several years of experience with global health programs, particularly program managers/directors and technical experts, with very few entry-level positions accessible to recent graduates of global health training programs. It is unlikely that global health training programs equip graduates to be competitive for the majority of positions that are currently available in this field.

Energy statistics yearbook 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2002 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-sixth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

Energy statistics yearbook 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2001 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-fifth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

Energy statistics yearbook 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2000 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-third in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

Decision Support Systems: Applications in Statistics and Hypothesis Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Christopher R.; Bozeman, William C.

1988-01-01

Discussion of the selection of appropriate statistical procedures by educators highlights a study conducted to investigate the effectiveness of decision aids in facilitating the use of appropriate statistics. Experimental groups and a control group using a printed flow chart, a computer-based decision aid, and a standard text are described. (11…

A conceptual guide to statistics using SPSS

CERN Document Server

Berkman, Elliot T

2011-01-01

Bridging an understanding of Statistics and SPSS. This unique text helps students develop a conceptual understanding of a variety of statistical tests by linking the ideas learned in a statistics class from a traditional statistics textbook with the computational steps and output from SPSS. Each chapter begins with a student-friendly explanation of the concept behind each statistical test and how the test relates to that concept. The authors then walk through the steps to compute the test in SPSS and the output, clearly linking how the SPSS procedure and output connect back to the conceptual u

Supplementary Material for: Compressing an Ensemble With Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2016-01-01

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific datasets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a nontrivial model to a dataset of 1 billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10¹⁸ entries. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Debate on GMOs health risks after statistical findings in regulatory tests.

Science.gov (United States)

de Vendômois, Joël Spiroux; Cellier, Dominique; Vélot, Christian; Clair, Emilie; Mesnage, Robin; Séralini, Gilles-Eric

2010-10-05

We summarize the major points of international debate on health risk studies for the main commercialized edible GMOs. These GMOs are soy, maize and oilseed rape designed to contain new pesticide residues since they have been modified to be herbicide-tolerant (mostly to Roundup) or to produce mutated Bt toxins. The debated alimentary chronic risks may come from unpredictable insertional mutagenesis effects, metabolic effects, or from the new pesticide residues. The most detailed regulatory tests on the GMOs are three-month long feeding trials of laboratory rats, which are biochemically assessed. The tests are not compulsory, and are not independently conducted. The test data and the corresponding results are kept in secret by the companies. Our previous analyses of regulatory raw data at these levels, taking the representative examples of three GM maize NK 603, MON 810, and MON 863 led us to conclude that hepatorenal toxicities were possible, and that longer testing was necessary. Our study was criticized by the company developing the GMOs in question and the regulatory bodies, mainly on the divergent biological interpretations of statistically significant biochemical and physiological effects. We present the scientific reasons for the crucially different biological interpretations and also highlight the shortcomings in the experimental protocols designed by the company. The debate implies an enormous responsibility towards public health and is essential due to nonexistent traceability or epidemiological studies in the GMO-producing countries.

Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Collignon, Marine; Hammer, Øyvind; Fallahi, Mohammad J.; Lupi, Matteo; Schmid, Daniel W.; Alwi, Husein; Hadi, Soffian; Mazzini, Adriano

2017-04-01

The 29th May 2006, gas water and mud breccia started to erupt at several localities along the Watukosek fault system in the Sidoarjo Regency in East Java Indonesia. The most prominent eruption site, named Lusi, is still active and the emitted material now covers a surface of nearly 7 km2, resulting in the displacement of 60.000 people (up to date). Due to its social and economic impacts, as well as its spectacular dimensions, the Lusi eruption still attracts the attention of international media and scientists. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126), many efforts were made to develop a quasi-constant monitoring of the site and the regional areas. Several studies attempted to predict the flow rate evolution or ground deformation, resulting in either overestimating or underestimating the longevity of the eruption. Models have failed because Lusi is not a mud volcano but a sedimentary hosted hydrothermal system that became apparent after the M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake. Another reason is because such models usually assume that the flow will decrease pacing the overpressure reduction during the deflation of the chamber. These models typically consider a closed system with a unique chamber that is not being recharged. Overall the flow rate has decreased over the past ten years, although it has been largely fluctuating with monthly periods of higher mud breccia discharge. Monitoring of the eruption has revealed that numerous anomalous events are temporally linked to punctual events such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Nevertheless, the quantification of these events has never been investigated in details. In this study, we present a compilation of anomalous events observed at the Lusi site during the last 10 years. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then statistically compare the displacement, recorded at different seismic stations around Lusi, with the regional and global earthquakes catalogue to test the probability that an earthquake

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

7 CFR 2.68 - Administrator, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

....S.C. 3318). (6) Enter cost-reimbursable agreements relating to agricultural research and statistical... promote and support the development of a viable and sustainable global agricultural system. Such work may... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Administrator, National Agricultural Statistics...

Performance Prediction of Centrifugal Compressor for Drop-In Testing Using Low Global Warming Potential Alternative Refrigerants and Performance Test Codes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joo Hoon Park

2017-12-01

Full Text Available As environmental regulations to stall global warming are strengthened around the world, studies using newly developed low global warming potential (GWP alternative refrigerants are increasing. In this study, substitute refrigerants, R-1234ze (E and R-1233zd (E, were used in the centrifugal compressor of an R-134a 2-stage centrifugal chiller with a fixed rotational speed. Performance predictions and thermodynamic analyses of the centrifugal compressor for drop-in testing were performed. A performance prediction method based on the existing ASME PTC-10 performance test code was proposed. The proposed method yielded the expected operating area and operating point of the centrifugal compressor with alternative refrigerants. The thermodynamic performance of the first and second stages of the centrifugal compressor was calculated as the polytropic state. To verify the suitability of the proposed method, the drop-in test results of the two alternative refrigerants were compared. The predicted operating range based on the permissible deviation of ASME PTC-10 confirmed that the temperature difference was very small at the same efficiency. Because the drop-in test of R-1234ze (E was performed within the expected operating range, the centrifugal compressor using R-1234ze (E is considered well predicted. However, the predictions of the operating point and operating range of R-1233zd (E were lower than those of the drop-in test. The proposed performance prediction method will assist in understanding thermodynamic performance at the expected operating point and operating area of a centrifugal compressor using alternative gases based on limited design and structure information.

[Hydrologic variability and sensitivity based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic].

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Xu; Xie, Ping; Wu, Zi Yi; Sang, Yan Fang; Zhao, Jiang Yan; Li, Bin Bin

2018-04-01

Due to the global climate change and frequent human activities in recent years, the pure stochastic components of hydrological sequence is mixed with one or several of the variation ingredients, including jump, trend, period and dependency. It is urgently needed to clarify which indices should be used to quantify the degree of their variability. In this study, we defined the hydrological variability based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic, and used Monte Carlo statistical tests to test and analyze their sensitivity to different variants. When the hydrological sequence had jump or trend variation, both Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic could reflect the variation, with the Hurst coefficient being more sensitive to weak jump or trend variation. When the sequence had period, only the Bartels statistic could detect the mutation of the sequence. When the sequence had a dependency, both the Hurst coefficient and the Bartels statistics could reflect the variation, with the latter could detect weaker dependent variations. For the four variations, both the Hurst variability and Bartels variability increased with the increases of variation range. Thus, they could be used to measure the variation intensity of the hydrological sequence. We analyzed the temperature series of different weather stations in the Lancang River basin. Results showed that the temperature of all stations showed the upward trend or jump, indicating that the entire basin had experienced warming in recent years and the temperature variability in the upper and lower reaches was much higher. This case study showed the practicability of the proposed method.

USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia Madalina Orac

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

A statistical design for testing apomictic diversification through linkage analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Yanru; Hou, Wei; Song, Shuang; Feng, Sisi; Shen, Lin; Xia, Guohua; Wu, Rongling

2014-03-01

The capacity of apomixis to generate maternal clones through seed reproduction has made it a useful characteristic for the fixation of heterosis in plant breeding. It has been observed that apomixis displays pronounced intra- and interspecific diversification, but the genetic mechanisms underlying this diversification remains elusive, obstructing the exploitation of this phenomenon in practical breeding programs. By capitalizing on molecular information in mapping populations, we describe and assess a statistical design that deploys linkage analysis to estimate and test the pattern and extent of apomictic differences at various levels from genotypes to species. The design is based on two reciprocal crosses between two individuals each chosen from a hermaphrodite or monoecious species. A multinomial distribution likelihood is constructed by combining marker information from two crosses. The EM algorithm is implemented to estimate the rate of apomixis and test its difference between two plant populations or species as the parents. The design is validated by computer simulation. A real data analysis of two reciprocal crosses between hickory (Carya cathayensis) and pecan (C. illinoensis) demonstrates the utilization and usefulness of the design in practice. The design provides a tool to address fundamental and applied questions related to the evolution and breeding of apomixis.

A simple and robust statistical framework for planning, analysing and interpreting faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Denwood, M.J.; McKendrick, I.J.; Matthews, L.

Introduction. There is an urgent need for a method of analysing FECRT data that is computationally simple and statistically robust. A method for evaluating the statistical power of a proposed FECRT study would also greatly enhance the current guidelines. Methods. A novel statistical framework has...... been developed that evaluates observed FECRT data against two null hypotheses: (1) the observed efficacy is consistent with the expected efficacy, and (2) the observed efficacy is inferior to the expected efficacy. The method requires only four simple summary statistics of the observed data. Power...... that the notional type 1 error rate of the new statistical test is accurate. Power calculations demonstrate a power of only 65% with a sample size of 20 treatment and control animals, which increases to 69% with 40 control animals or 79% with 40 treatment animals. Discussion. The method proposed is simple...

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

1999-01-01

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

A review of statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation: looking for an answer in Lynch syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boonstra, Philip S; Gruber, Stephen B; Raymond, Victoria M

2010-01-01

Anticipation, manifested through decreasing age of onset or increased severity in successive generations, has been noted in several genetic diseases. Statistical methods for genetic anticipation range from a simple use of the paired t-test for age of onset restricted to affected parent-child pairs......, and this right truncation effect is more pronounced in children than in parents. In this study, we first review different statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation in affected parent-child pairs that address the issue of bias due to right truncation. Using affected parent-child pair data, we compare...... the issue of multiplex ascertainment and its effect on the different methods. We then focus on exploring genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome and analyze new data on the age of onset in affected parent-child pairs from families seen at the University of Michigan Cancer Genetics clinic with a mutation...

Which statistics should tropical biologists learn?

Science.gov (United States)

Loaiza Velásquez, Natalia; González Lutz, María Isabel; Monge-Nájera, Julián

2011-09-01

Tropical biologists study the richest and most endangered biodiversity in the planet, and in these times of climate change and mega-extinctions, the need for efficient, good quality research is more pressing than in the past. However, the statistical component in research published by tropical authors sometimes suffers from poor quality in data collection; mediocre or bad experimental design and a rigid and outdated view of data analysis. To suggest improvements in their statistical education, we listed all the statistical tests and other quantitative analyses used in two leading tropical journals, the Revista de Biología Tropical and Biotropica, during a year. The 12 most frequent tests in the articles were: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Chi-Square Test, Student's T Test, Linear Regression, Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, Mann-Whitney U Test, Kruskal-Wallis Test, Shannon's Diversity Index, Tukey's Test, Cluster Analysis, Spearman's Rank Correlation Test and Principal Component Analysis. We conclude that statistical education for tropical biologists must abandon the old syllabus based on the mathematical side of statistics and concentrate on the correct selection of these and other procedures and tests, on their biological interpretation and on the use of reliable and friendly freeware. We think that their time will be better spent understanding and protecting tropical ecosystems than trying to learn the mathematical foundations of statistics: in most cases, a well designed one-semester course should be enough for their basic requirements.

Powerful Statistical Inference for Nested Data Using Sufficient Summary Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Dowding, Irene; Haufe, Stefan

2018-01-01

Hierarchically-organized data arise naturally in many psychology and neuroscience studies. As the standard assumption of independent and identically distributed samples does not hold for such data, two important problems are to accurately estimate group-level effect sizes, and to obtain powerful statistical tests against group-level null hypotheses. A common approach is to summarize subject-level data by a single quantity per subject, which is often the mean or the difference between class means, and treat these as samples in a group-level t-test. This “naive” approach is, however, suboptimal in terms of statistical power, as it ignores information about the intra-subject variance. To address this issue, we review several approaches to deal with nested data, with a focus on methods that are easy to implement. With what we call the sufficient-summary-statistic approach, we highlight a computationally efficient technique that can improve statistical power by taking into account within-subject variances, and we provide step-by-step instructions on how to apply this approach to a number of frequently-used measures of effect size. The properties of the reviewed approaches and the potential benefits over a group-level t-test are quantitatively assessed on simulated data and demonstrated on EEG data from a simulated-driving experiment. PMID:29615885

FADTTS: functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Linglong; Li, Runze; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Lin, Weili; Gilmore, John H

2011-06-01

The aim of this paper is to present a functional analysis of a diffusion tensor tract statistics (FADTTS) pipeline for delineating the association between multiple diffusion properties along major white matter fiber bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these white matter tract properties in various diffusion tensor imaging studies. The FADTTS integrates five statistical tools: (i) a multivariate varying coefficient model for allowing the varying coefficient functions in terms of arc length to characterize the varying associations between fiber bundle diffusion properties and a set of covariates, (ii) a weighted least squares estimation of the varying coefficient functions, (iii) a functional principal component analysis to delineate the structure of the variability in fiber bundle diffusion properties, (iv) a global test statistic to test hypotheses of interest, and (v) a simultaneous confidence band to quantify the uncertainty in the estimated coefficient functions. Simulated data are used to evaluate the finite sample performance of FADTTS. We apply FADTTS to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the splenium of the corpus callosum tract and the right internal capsule tract in a clinical study of neurodevelopment. FADTTS can be used to facilitate the understanding of normal brain development, the neural bases of neuropsychiatric disorders, and the joint effects of environmental and genetic factors on white matter fiber bundles. The advantages of FADTTS compared with the other existing approaches are that they are capable of modeling the structured inter-subject variability, testing the joint effects, and constructing their simultaneous confidence bands. However, FADTTS is not crucial for estimation and reduces to the functional analysis method for the single measure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From microarray to biology: an integrated experimental, statistical and in silico analysis of how the extracellular matrix modulates the phenotype of cancer cells

OpenAIRE

Centola Michael B; Dozmorov Igor; Buethe David D; Saban Ricardo; Hauser Paul J; Kyker Kimberly D; Dozmorov Mikhail G; Culkin Daniel J; Hurst Robert E

2008-01-01

Abstract A statistically robust and biologically-based approach for analysis of microarray data is described that integrates independent biological knowledge and data with a global F-test for finding genes of interest that minimizes the need for replicates when used for hypothesis generation. First, each microarray is normalized to its noise level around zero. The microarray dataset is then globally adjusted by robust linear regression. Second, genes of interest that capture significant respo...

Software-Defined Radio Global System for Mobile Communications Transmitter Development for Heterogeneous Network Vulnerability Testing

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-01

AbdelWahab, “ 2G / 3G Inter-RAT Handover Performance Analysis,” Second European Conference on Antennas and Propagation, pp. 1, 8, 11–16, Nov. 2007. [19] J...RADIO GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING by Carson C. McAbee... MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Carson C. McAbee

The Use of Statistical Process Control-Charts for Person-Fit Analysis on Computerized Adaptive Testing. LSAC Research Report Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Meijer, Rob R.; van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.

In this study a cumulative-sum (CUSUM) procedure from the theory of Statistical Process Control was modified and applied in the context of person-fit analysis in a computerized adaptive testing (CAT) environment. Six person-fit statistics were proposed using the CUSUM procedure, and three of them could be used to investigate the CAT in online test…

The Euclid Statistical Matrix Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Curtis Tilves

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Stataphobia, a term used to describe the fear of statistics and research methods, can result from a lack of improper training in statistical methods. Poor statistical methods training can have an effect on health policy decision making and may play a role in the low research productivity seen in developing countries. One way to reduce Stataphobia is to intervene in the teaching of statistics in the classroom; however, such an intervention must tackle several obstacles, including student interest in the material, multiple ways of learning materials, and language barriers. We present here the Euclid Statistical Matrix, a tool for combatting Stataphobia on a global scale. This free tool is comprised of popular statistical YouTube channels and web sources that teach and demonstrate statistical concepts in a variety of presentation methods. Working with international teams in Iran, Japan, Egypt, Russia, and the United States, we have also developed the Statistical Matrix in multiple languages to address language barriers to learning statistics. By utilizing already-established large networks, we are able to disseminate our tool to thousands of Farsi-speaking university faculty and students in Iran and the United States. Future dissemination of the Euclid Statistical Matrix throughout the Central Asia and support from local universities may help to combat low research productivity in this region.

[''R"--project for statistical computing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dessau, R.B.; Pipper, Christian Bressen

2008-01-01

An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests are fai...... are fairly easy to perform in R, but more complex modelling requires programming skills; 3. R is seen as a tool for teaching statistics and implementing complex modelling of medical data among medical professionals Udgivelsesdato: 2008/1/28......An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests...

An investigation of the statistical power of neutrality tests based on comparative and population genetic data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery

2009-01-01

In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...... and population genetic data. We show that in the presence of repeated selective sweeps on relatively neutral background, tests based on the d(N)/d(S) ratios in comparative data almost always have more power to detect selection than tests based on population genetic data, even if the overall level of divergence...... selection. The Hudson-Kreitman-Aguadé test is the most powerful test for detecting positive selection among the population genetic tests investigated, whereas McDonald-Kreitman test typically has more power to detect negative selection. We discuss our findings in the light of the discordant results obtained...

Baseline Testing of The EV Global E-Bike

Science.gov (United States)

Eichenberg, Dennis J.; Kolacz, John S.; Tavernelli, Paul F.

2001-01-01

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center initiated baseline testing of the EV Global E-Bike as a way to reduce pollution in urban areas, reduce fossil fuel consumption and reduce Operating costs for transportation systems. The work was done Linder the Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Program, which includes the Hybrid Electric Transit Bus (HETB). The E-Bike is a state of the art, ground up, hybrid electric bicycle. Unique features of the vehicle's power system include the use of an efficient, 400 W. electric hub motor and a 7-speed derailleur system that permits operation as fully electric, fully pedal, or a combination of the two. Other innovative features, such as regenerative braking through ultracapacitor energy storage are planned. Regenerative braking recovers much of the kinetic energy of the vehicle during deceleration. The E-Bike is an inexpensive approach to advance the state of the art in hybrid technology in a practical application. The project transfers space technology to terrestrial use via nontraditional partners, and provides power system data valuable for future space applications. A description of the E-bike, the results of performance testing, and future vehicle development plans is the subject of this report. The report concludes that the E-Bike provides excellent performance, and that the implementation of ultracapacitors in the power system can provide significant performance improvements.

Designing experiments for maximum information from cyclic oxidation tests and their statistical analysis using half Normal plots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, S.Y.; Nicholls, J.R.

2006-01-01

Cyclic oxidation testing at elevated temperatures requires careful experimental design and the adoption of standard procedures to ensure reliable data. This is a major aim of the 'COTEST' research programme. Further, as such tests are both time consuming and costly, in terms of human effort, to take measurements over a large number of cycles, it is important to gain maximum information from a minimum number of tests (trials). This search for standardisation of cyclic oxidation conditions leads to a series of tests to determine the relative effects of cyclic parameters on the oxidation process. Following a review of the available literature, databases and the experience of partners to the COTEST project, the most influential parameters, upper dwell temperature (oxidation temperature) and time (hot time), lower dwell time (cold time) and environment, were investigated in partners' laboratories. It was decided to test upper dwell temperature at 3 levels, at and equidistant from a reference temperature; to test upper dwell time at a reference, a higher and a lower time; to test lower dwell time at a reference and a higher time and wet and dry environments. Thus an experiment, consisting of nine trials, was designed according to statistical criteria. The results of the trial were analysed statistically, to test the main linear and quadratic effects of upper dwell temperature and hot time and the main effects of lower dwell time (cold time) and environment. The nine trials are a quarter fraction of the 36 possible combinations of parameter levels that could have been studied. The results have been analysed by half Normal plots as there are only 2 degrees of freedom for the experimental error variance, which is rather low for a standard analysis of variance. Half Normal plots give a visual indication of which factors are statistically significant. In this experiment each trial has 3 replications, and the data are analysed in terms of mean mass change, oxidation kinetics

Global regionalized seismicity in view of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics

Science.gov (United States)

Chochlaki, Kalliopi; Vallianatos, Filippos; Michas, Georgios

2018-03-01

In the present work we study the distribution of Earth's shallow seismicity on different seismic zones, as occurred from 1981 to 2011 and extracted from the Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. Our analysis is based on the subdivision of the Earth's surface into seismic zones that are homogeneous with regards to seismic activity and orientation of the predominant stress field. For this, we use the Flinn-Engdahl regionalization (FE) (Flinn and Engdahl, 1965), which consists of fifty seismic zones as modified by Lombardi and Marzocchi (2007). The latter authors grouped the 50 FE zones into larger tectonically homogeneous ones, utilizing the cumulative moment tensor method, resulting into thirty-nine seismic zones. In each one of these seismic zones we study the distribution of seismicity in terms of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the inter-event time distribution between successive earthquakes, a task that is essential for hazard assessments and to better understand the global and regional geodynamics. In our analysis we use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP), which seems to be one of the most adequate and promising methodological tools for analyzing complex systems, such as the Earth's seismicity, introducing the q-exponential formulation as the expression of probability distribution function that maximizes the Sq entropy as defined by Tsallis, (1988). The qE parameter is significantly greater than one for all the seismic regions analyzed with value range from 1.294 to 1.504, indicating that magnitude correlations are particularly strong. Furthermore, the qT parameter shows some temporal correlations but variations with cut-off magnitude show greater temporal correlations when the smaller magnitude earthquakes are included. The qT for earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 takes values from 1.043 to 1.353 and as we increase the cut-off magnitude to 5.5 and 6 the qT value ranges from 1.001 to 1.242 and from 1.001 to 1.181 respectively, presenting

Statistical ecology comes of age

Science.gov (United States)

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-01-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

Statistical ecology comes of age.

Science.gov (United States)

Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

2014-12-01

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

Non-parametric order statistics method applied to uncertainty propagation in fuel rod calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arimescu, V.E.; Heins, L.

2001-01-01

Advances in modeling fuel rod behavior and accumulations of adequate experimental data have made possible the introduction of quantitative methods to estimate the uncertainty of predictions made with best-estimate fuel rod codes. The uncertainty range of the input variables is characterized by a truncated distribution which is typically a normal, lognormal, or uniform distribution. While the distribution for fabrication parameters is defined to cover the design or fabrication tolerances, the distribution of modeling parameters is inferred from the experimental database consisting of separate effects tests and global tests. The final step of the methodology uses a Monte Carlo type of random sampling of all relevant input variables and performs best-estimate code calculations to propagate these uncertainties in order to evaluate the uncertainty range of outputs of interest for design analysis, such as internal rod pressure and fuel centerline temperature. The statistical method underlying this Monte Carlo sampling is non-parametric order statistics, which is perfectly suited to evaluate quantiles of populations with unknown distribution. The application of this method is straightforward in the case of one single fuel rod, when a 95/95 statement is applicable: 'with a probability of 95% and confidence level of 95% the values of output of interest are below a certain value'. Therefore, the 0.95-quantile is estimated for the distribution of all possible values of one fuel rod with a statistical confidence of 95%. On the other hand, a more elaborate procedure is required if all the fuel rods in the core are being analyzed. In this case, the aim is to evaluate the following global statement: with 95% confidence level, the expected number of fuel rods which are not exceeding a certain value is all the fuel rods in the core except only a few fuel rods. In both cases, the thresholds determined by the analysis should be below the safety acceptable design limit. An indirect

AP statistics crash course

CERN Document Server

D'Alessio, Michael

2012-01-01

AP Statistics Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Statistics Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Statistics course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Our easy-to-read format covers: exploring da

Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment. Research project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Serradell, V.; Munoz, A.; Sanchez, A.

1997-01-01

Background, objective, scope, detailed working plan and follow-up and final product of the project ''Global optimization of maintenance and surveillance testing based on reliability and probabilistic safety assessment'' are described

1992 Energy statistics Yearbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the United Nations Statistical Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistical Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

Estimation of In Situ Stresses with Hydro-Fracturing Tests and a Statistical Method

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hikweon; Ong, See Hong

2018-03-01

At great depths, where borehole-based field stress measurements such as hydraulic fracturing are challenging due to difficult downhole conditions or prohibitive costs, in situ stresses can be indirectly estimated using wellbore failures such as borehole breakouts and/or drilling-induced tensile failures detected by an image log. As part of such efforts, a statistical method has been developed in which borehole breakouts detected on an image log are used for this purpose (Song et al. in Proceedings on the 7th international symposium on in situ rock stress, 2016; Song and Chang in J Geophys Res Solid Earth 122:4033-4052, 2017). The method employs a grid-searching algorithm in which the least and maximum horizontal principal stresses ( S h and S H) are varied, and the corresponding simulated depth-related breakout width distribution as a function of the breakout angle ( θ B = 90° - half of breakout width) is compared to that observed along the borehole to determine a set of S h and S H having the lowest misfit between them. An important advantage of the method is that S h and S H can be estimated simultaneously in vertical wells. To validate the statistical approach, the method is applied to a vertical hole where a set of field hydraulic fracturing tests have been carried out. The stress estimations using the proposed method were found to be in good agreement with the results interpreted from the hydraulic fracturing test measurements.

Global motion perception is associated with motor function in 2-year-old children.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Benjamin; McKinlay, Christopher J D; Chakraborty, Arijit; Anstice, Nicola S; Jacobs, Robert J; Paudel, Nabin; Yu, Tzu-Ying; Ansell, Judith M; Wouldes, Trecia A; Harding, Jane E

2017-09-29

The dorsal visual processing stream that includes V1, motion sensitive area V5 and the posterior parietal lobe, supports visually guided motor function. Two recent studies have reported associations between global motion perception, a behavioural measure of processing in V5, and motor function in pre-school and school aged children. This indicates a relationship between visual and motor development and also supports the use of global motion perception to assess overall dorsal stream function in studies of human neurodevelopment. We investigated whether associations between vision and motor function were present at 2 years of age, a substantially earlier stage of development. The Bayley III test of Infant and Toddler Development and measures of vision including visual acuity (Cardiff Acuity Cards), stereopsis (Lang stereotest) and global motion perception were attempted in 404 2-year-old children (±4 weeks). Global motion perception (quantified as a motion coherence threshold) was assessed by observing optokinetic nystagmus in response to random dot kinematograms of varying coherence. Linear regression revealed that global motion perception was modestly, but statistically significantly associated with Bayley III composite motor (r 2 =0.06, Pmotor scores (r 2 =0.06, pmotor and fine motor scores, but unaided visual acuity was not statistically significantly associated with any of the motor scores. These results demonstrate that global motion perception and binocular vision are associated with motor function at an early stage of development. Global motion perception can be used as a partial measure of dorsal stream function from early childhood. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest, Trees, Dynamics: Results from a novel Wisconsin Card Sorting Test variant Protocol for Studying Global-Local Attention and Complex Cognitive Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin eCowley

2016-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundRecognition of objects and their context relies heavily on the integrated functioning of global and local visual processing. In a realistic setting such as work, this processing becomes a sustained activity, implying a consequent interaction with executive functions.MotivationThere have been many studies of either global-local attention or executive functions; however it is relatively novel to combine these processes to study a more ecological form of attention. We aim to explore the phenomenon of global-local processing during a task requiring sustained attention and working memory.MethodsWe develop and test a novel protocol for global-local dissociation, with task structure including phases of divided ('rule search' and selective ('rule found' attention, based on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task.We test it in a laboratory study with 25 participants, and report on behaviour measures (physiological data was also gathered, but not reported here. We develop novel stimuli with more naturalistic levels of information and noise, based primarily on face photographs, with consequently more ecological validity.ResultsWe report behavioural results indicating that sustained difficulty when participants test their hypotheses impacts matching-task performance, and diminishes the global precedence effect. Results also show a dissociation between subjectively experienced difficulty and objective dimension of performance, and establish the internal validity of the protocol.ContributionWe contribute an advance in the state of the art for testing global-local attention processes in concert with complex cognition. With three results we establish a connection between global-local dissociation and aspects of complex cognition. Our protocol also improves ecological validity and opens options for testing additional interactions in future work.

Instruction of Statistics via Computer-Based Tools: Effects on Statistics' Anxiety, Attitude, and Achievement

Science.gov (United States)

Ciftci, S. Koza; Karadag, Engin; Akdal, Pinar

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of statistics instruction using computer-based tools, on statistics anxiety, attitude, and achievement. This study was designed as quasi-experimental research and the pattern used was a matched pre-test/post-test with control group design. Data was collected using three scales: a Statistics…

Histoplasmosis Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

... Testing Treatment & Outcomes Health Professionals Statistics More Resources Candidiasis Candida infections of the mouth, throat, and esophagus Vaginal candidiasis Invasive candidiasis Definition Symptoms Risk & Prevention Sources Diagnosis ...

Estimation of the global regularity of a multifractional Brownian motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lebovits, Joachim; Podolskij, Mark

This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional Brownian motion at two different frequencies. We show that a ...... that a logarithmic transformation of this statistic converges in probability to the minimum of the Hurst functional parameter, which is, under weak assumptions, identical to the global regularity index of the path....

On the Land-Ocean Contrast of Tropical Convection and Microphysics Statistics Derived from TRMM Satellite Signals and Global Storm-Resolving Models

Science.gov (United States)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Satoh, Masaki; Hashino, Tempei; Kubota, Takuji

2016-01-01

A 14-year climatology of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) collocated multi-sensor signal statistics reveal a distinct land-ocean contrast as well as geographical variability of precipitation type, intensity, and microphysics. Microphysics information inferred from the TRMM precipitation radar and Microwave Imager (TMI) show a large land-ocean contrast for the deep category, suggesting continental convective vigor. Over land, TRMM shows higher echo-top heights and larger maximum echoes, suggesting taller storms and more intense precipitation, as well as larger microwave scattering, suggesting the presence of morelarger frozen convective hydrometeors. This strong land-ocean contrast in deep convection is invariant over seasonal and multi-year time-scales. Consequently, relatively short-term simulations from two global storm-resolving models can be evaluated in terms of their land-ocean statistics using the TRMM Triple-sensor Three-step Evaluation via a satellite simulator. The models evaluated are the NASA Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) and the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud Atmospheric Model (NICAM). While both simulations can represent convective land-ocean contrasts in warm precipitation to some extent, near-surface conditions over land are relatively moisture in NICAM than MMF, which appears to be the key driver in the divergent warm precipitation results between the two models. Both the MMF and NICAM produced similar frequencies of large CAPE between land and ocean. The dry MMF boundary layer enhanced microwave scattering signals over land, but only NICAM had an enhanced deep convection frequency over land. Neither model could reproduce a realistic land-ocean contrast in in deep convective precipitation microphysics. A realistic contrast between land and ocean remains an issue in global storm-resolving modeling.

Approximations to the distribution of a test statistic in covariance structure analysis: A comprehensive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hao

2018-05-01

In structural equation modelling (SEM), a robust adjustment to the test statistic or to its reference distribution is needed when its null distribution deviates from a χ 2 distribution, which usually arises when data do not follow a multivariate normal distribution. Unfortunately, existing studies on this issue typically focus on only a few methods and neglect the majority of alternative methods in statistics. Existing simulation studies typically consider only non-normal distributions of data that either satisfy asymptotic robustness or lead to an asymptotic scaled χ 2 distribution. In this work we conduct a comprehensive study that involves both typical methods in SEM and less well-known methods from the statistics literature. We also propose the use of several novel non-normal data distributions that are qualitatively different from the non-normal distributions widely used in existing studies. We found that several under-studied methods give the best performance under specific conditions, but the Satorra-Bentler method remains the most viable method for most situations. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Introductory statistics and analytics a resampling perspective

CERN Document Server

Bruce, Peter C

2014-01-01

Concise, thoroughly class-tested primer that features basic statistical concepts in the concepts in the context of analytics, resampling, and the bootstrapA uniquely developed presentation of key statistical topics, Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective provides an accessible approach to statistical analytics, resampling, and the bootstrap for readers with various levels of exposure to basic probability and statistics. Originally class-tested at one of the first online learning companies in the discipline, www.statistics.com, the book primarily focuses on application

Application of the modified chi-square ratio statistic in a stepwise procedure for cascade impactor equivalence testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Benjamin; Lee, Sau L; Delvadia, Renishkumar; Lionberger, Robert; Li, Bing V; Tsong, Yi; Hochhaus, Guenther

2015-03-01

Equivalence testing of aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD) through multi-stage cascade impactors (CIs) is important for establishing bioequivalence of orally inhaled drug products. Recent work demonstrated that the median of the modified chi-square ratio statistic (MmCSRS) is a promising metric for APSD equivalence testing of test (T) and reference (R) products as it can be applied to a reduced number of CI sites that are more relevant for lung deposition. This metric is also less sensitive to the increased variability often observed for low-deposition sites. A method to establish critical values for the MmCSRS is described here. This method considers the variability of the R product by employing a reference variance scaling approach that allows definition of critical values as a function of the observed variability of the R product. A stepwise CI equivalence test is proposed that integrates the MmCSRS as a method for comparing the relative shapes of CI profiles and incorporates statistical tests for assessing equivalence of single actuation content and impactor sized mass. This stepwise CI equivalence test was applied to 55 published CI profile scenarios, which were classified as equivalent or inequivalent by members of the Product Quality Research Institute working group (PQRI WG). The results of the stepwise CI equivalence test using a 25% difference in MmCSRS as an acceptance criterion provided the best matching with those of the PQRI WG as decisions of both methods agreed in 75% of the 55 CI profile scenarios.

THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

OpenAIRE

Sabina Tuca

2013-01-01

The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

Earthquake number forecasts testing

Science.gov (United States)

Kagan, Yan Y.

2017-10-01

We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

ECG Identification System Using Neural Network with Global and Local Features

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Kuo-Kun; Lee, Dachao; Chen, Charles

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a human identification system via extracted electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. Two hierarchical classification structures based on global shape feature and local statistical feature is used to extract ECG signals. Global shape feature represents the outline information of ECG signals and local statistical feature extracts the…

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

2014-12-01

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

Combining Multiple Hypothesis Testing with Machine Learning Increases the Statistical Power of Genome-wide Association Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M.; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2016-01-01

The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008–2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0. PMID:27892471

Statistics Clinic

Science.gov (United States)

Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

2014-01-01

Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

Nacelle Chine Installation Based on Wind-Tunnel Test Using Efficient Global Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Kanazaki, Masahiro; Yokokawa, Yuzuru; Murayama, Mitsuhiro; Ito, Takeshi; Jeong, Shinkyu; Yamamoto, Kazuomi

Design exploration of a nacelle chine installation was carried out. The nacelle chine improves stall performance when deploying multi-element high-lift devices. This study proposes an efficient design process using a Kriging surrogate model to determine the nacelle chine installation point in wind-tunnel tests. The design exploration was conducted in a wind-tunnel using the JAXA high-lift aircraft model at the JAXA Large-scale Low-speed Wind Tunnel. The objective was to maximize the maximum lift. The chine installation points were designed on the engine nacelle in the axial and chord-wise direction, while the geometry of the chine was fixed. In the design process, efficient global optimization (EGO) which includes Kriging model and genetic algorithm (GA) was employed. This method makes it possible both to improve the accuracy of the response surface and to explore the global optimum efficiently. Detailed observations of flowfields using the Particle Image Velocimetry method confirmed the chine effect and design results.

Statistics & probaility for dummies

CERN Document Server

Rumsey, Deborah J

2013-01-01

Two complete eBooks for one low price! Created and compiled by the publisher, this Statistics I and Statistics II bundle brings together two math titles in one, e-only bundle. With this special bundle, you'll get the complete text of the following two titles: Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition  Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more. Tra

Engineering Sensitivity Improvement of Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection System by Means Global Hard Vacuum Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sigit Asmara Santa

2006-01-01

The engineering sensitivity improvement of Helium mass spectrometer leak detection using global hard vacuum test configuration has been done. The purpose of this work is to enhance the sensitivity of the current leak detection of pressurized method (sniffer method) with the sensitivity of 10 -3 ∼ 10 -5 std cm 3 /s, to the global hard vacuum test configuration method which can be achieved of up to 10 -8 std cm 3 /s. The goal of this research and development is to obtain a Helium leak test configuration which is suitable and can be used as routine bases in the quality control tests of FPM capsule and AgInCd safety control rod products. The result is an additional instrumented vacuum tube connected with conventional Helium mass spectrometer. The pressure and temperature of the test object during the leak measurement are simulated by means of a 4.1 kW capacity heater and Helium injection to test object, respectively. The addition of auxiliary mechanical vacuum pump of 2.4 l/s pumping speed which is directly connected to the vacuum tube, will reduce 86 % of evacuation time. The reduction of the measured sensitivity due to the auxiliary mechanical vacuum pump can be overcome by shutting off the pump soon after Helium mass spectrometer reaches its operating pressure condition. (author)

Global Environmental Micro Sensors Test Operations in the Natural Environment (GEMSTONE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark ADAMS

2007-10-01

Full Text Available ENSCO, Inc. is developing an innovative atmospheric observing system known as Global Environmental Micro Sensors (GEMS. The GEMS concept features an integrated system of miniaturized in situ, airborne probes measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and vector wind velocity. In order for the probes to remain airborne for long periods of time, their design is based on a helium-filled super-pressure balloon. The GEMS probes are neutrally buoyant and carried passively by the wind at predetermined levels. Each probe contains on-board satellite communication, power generation, processing, and geolocation capabilities. ENSCO has partnered with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC Weather Office for a project called GEMS Test Operations in the Natural Environment (GEMSTONE. The goal of the GEMSTONE project was to build and field-test a small system of prototype probes in the Earth’s atmosphere. This paper summarizes the 9-month GEMSTONE project (Sep 2006 – May 2007 including probe and system engineering as well as experiment design and data analysis from laboratory and field tests. These tests revealed issues with reliability, sensor accuracy, electronics miniaturization, and sub-system optimization. Nevertheless, the success of the third and final free flight test provides a solid foundation to move forward in follow on projects addressing these issues as highlighted in the technology roadmap for future GEMS development.

Error calculations statistics in radioactive measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdera, Silvia

1994-01-01

Basic approach and procedures frequently used in the practice of radioactive measurements.Statistical principles applied are part of Good radiopharmaceutical Practices and quality assurance.Concept of error, classification as systematic and random errors.Statistic fundamentals,probability theories, populations distributions, Bernoulli, Poisson,Gauss, t-test distribution,Ξ2 test, error propagation based on analysis of variance.Bibliography.z table,t-test table, Poisson index ,Ξ2 test

Nonparametric Statistics Test Software Package.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-09-01

25 I1l,lCELL WRITE (NCF,12 ) IvE (I ,RCCT(I) 122 FORMAT(IlXt 3(H5 9 1) IF( IeLT *NCELL) WRITE (NOF1123 J PARTV(I1J 123 FORMAT( Xll----’,FIo.3J 25 CONT...the user’s entries. Its purpose is to write two types of files needed by the program Crunch: the data file, and the option file. 211 Iuill rateLchiavar...data file and communicate the choice of test and test parameters to Crunch. After a data file is written, Lochinvar prompts the writing of the

Global income-related inequalities in HIV testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Larose, Auburn; Moore, Spencer; Harper, Sam; Lynch, John

2011-09-01

Voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) is an important prevention initiative in reducing HIV/AIDS transmission. Despite current global prevention efforts, many low- and middle-income countries continue reporting low VCT levels. Little is known about the association of within- and between-country socioeconomic inequalities and VCT. Based on the 'inverse equity hypothesis,' this study examines the degree to which low socioeconomic groups in developing countries are disadvantaged in VCT. Using recently released data from the 2002 to 2003 World Health Survey (WHS) for 106 705 individuals in 49 countries, this study used multilevel logistic regression to examine the association of individual- and national-level factors with VCT, and whether national economic development moderated the association between individual income and VCT. Individual income was based on country-specific income quintiles. National economic development was based on national gross domestic product per capita (GDP/c). Effect modification was evaluated with the likelihood ratio test (G(2)). Individuals eligible for the VCT question of the WHS were adults between the ages of 18-49 years; women who had given birth in the last 2 years were excluded from this question. VCT was more likely among higher income quintiles and in countries with higher GDP/c. GDP/c moderated the association between individual income and VCT whereby relative income differences in VCT were greater in countries with lower GDP/c (G(2)= 9.21; P= 0.002). Individual socio-demographic characteristics were also associated with the likelihood of a person having VCT. Relative socioeconomic inequalities in VCT coverage appear to decline when higher SES groups reach a certain level of coverage. These findings suggest that changes to international VCT programs may be necessary to moderate the relative VCT differences between high- and low-income individuals in lower GDP/c nations.

Measurement and statistics for teachers

CERN Document Server

Van Blerkom, Malcolm

2008-01-01

Written in a student-friendly style, Measurement and Statistics for Teachers shows teachers how to use measurement and statistics wisely in their classes. Although there is some discussion of theory, emphasis is given to the practical, everyday uses of measurement and statistics. The second part of the text provides more complete coverage of basic descriptive statistics and their use in the classroom than in any text now available.Comprehensive and accessible, Measurement and Statistics for Teachers includes:Short vignettes showing concepts in action Numerous classroom examples Highlighted vocabulary Boxes summarizing related concepts End-of-chapter exercises and problems Six full chapters devoted to the essential topic of Classroom Tests Instruction on how to carry out informal assessments, performance assessments, and portfolio assessments, and how to use and interpret standardized tests A five-chapter section on Descriptive Statistics, giving instructors the option of more thoroughly teaching basic measur...

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-05-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

DWPF Sample Vial Insert Study-Statistical Analysis of DWPF Mock-Up Test Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, S.P.

1997-01-01

This report is prepared as part of Technical/QA Task Plan WSRC-RP-97-351 which was issued in response to Technical Task Request HLW/DWPF/TTR-970132 submitted by DWPF. Presented in this report is a statistical analysis of DWPF Mock-up test data for evaluation of two new analytical methods which use insert samples from the existing HydragardTM sampler. The first is a new hydrofluoric acid based method called the Cold Chemical Method (Cold Chem) and the second is a modified fusion method.Both new methods use the existing HydragardTM sampler to collect a smaller insert sample from the process sampling system. The insert testing methodology applies to the DWPF Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) and the Melter Feed Tank (MFT) samples. Samples in small 3 ml containers (Inserts) are analyzed by either the cold chemical method or a modified fusion method. The current analytical method uses a HydragardTM sample station to obtain nearly full 15 ml peanut vials. The samples are prepared by a multi-step process for Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP) analysis by drying, vitrification, grinding and finally dissolution by either mixed acid or fusion. In contrast, the insert sample is placed directly in the dissolution vessel, thus eliminating the drying, vitrification and grinding operations for the Cold chem method. Although the modified fusion still requires drying and calcine conversion, the process is rapid due to the decreased sample size and that no vitrification step is required.A slurry feed simulant material was acquired from the TNX pilot facility from the test run designated as PX-7.The Mock-up test data were gathered on the basis of a statistical design presented in SRT-SCS-97004 (Rev. 0). Simulant PX-7 samples were taken in the DWPF Analytical Cell Mock-up Facility using 3 ml inserts and 15 ml peanut vials. A number of the insert samples were analyzed by Cold Chem and compared with full peanut vial samples analyzed by the current methods. The remaining inserts were analyzed by

Statistical Inference and Patterns of Inequality in the Global North

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Timothy Patrick

2006-01-01

Cross-national inequality trends have historically been a crucial field of inquiry across the social sciences, and new methodological techniques of statistical inference have recently improved the ability to analyze these trends over time. This paper applies Monte Carlo, bootstrap inference methods to the income surveys of the Luxembourg Income…

Testing the developed world: Global CAPM vs. Local CAPM

OpenAIRE

Knudsen, John

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to assess the extent to which the developed world is integrated that the pricing difference between using the local CAPM and the global CAPM is not relevant. This paper has analysed the twenty developed countries which have been classified as such in the MSCI global index. The paper breaks down the country and stock to identify where there is a significant difference in the pricing of assets between the local and global CAPM, and the significance of the result.

Statistical theory of signal detection

CERN Document Server

Helstrom, Carl Wilhelm; Costrell, L; Kandiah, K

1968-01-01

Statistical Theory of Signal Detection, Second Edition provides an elementary introduction to the theory of statistical testing of hypotheses that is related to the detection of signals in radar and communications technology. This book presents a comprehensive survey of digital communication systems. Organized into 11 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the theory of signal detection and the typical detection problem. This text then examines the goals of the detection system, which are defined through an analogy with the testing of statistical hypotheses. Other chapters consider

Assessment of global phase uncertainty in case-control studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Houwelingen Hans C

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In haplotype-based candidate gene studies a problem is that the genotype data are unphased, which results in haplotype ambiguity. The measure 1 quantifies haplotype predictability from genotype data. It is computed for each individual haplotype, and for a measure of global relative efficiency a minimum value is suggested. Alternatively, we developed methods directly based on the information content of haplotype frequency estimates to obtain global relative efficiency measures: and based on A- and D-optimality, respectively. All three methods are designed for single populations; they can be applied in cases only, controls only or the whole data. Therefore they are not necessarily optimal for haplotype testing in case-control studies. Results A new global relative efficiency measure was derived to maximize power of a simple test statistic that compares haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. Application to real data showed that our proposed method gave a clear and summarizing measure for the case-control study conducted. Additionally this measure might be used for selection of individuals, who have the highest potential for improving power by resolving phase ambiguity. Conclusion Instead of using relative efficiency measure for cases only, controls only or their combined data, we link uncertainty measure to case-control studies directly. Hence, our global efficiency measure might be useful to assess whether data are informative or have enough power for estimation of a specific haplotype risk.

Statistical assessment of crosstalk enrichment between gene groups in biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Theodore; Frings, Oliver; Alexeyenko, Andrey; Sonnhammer, Erik L L

2013-01-01

Analyzing groups of functionally coupled genes or proteins in the context of global interaction networks has become an important aspect of bioinformatic investigations. Assessing the statistical significance of crosstalk enrichment between or within groups of genes can be a valuable tool for functional annotation of experimental gene sets. Here we present CrossTalkZ, a statistical method and software to assess the significance of crosstalk enrichment between pairs of gene or protein groups in large biological networks. We demonstrate that the standard z-score is generally an appropriate and unbiased statistic. We further evaluate the ability of four different methods to reliably recover crosstalk within known biological pathways. We conclude that the methods preserving the second-order topological network properties perform best. Finally, we show how CrossTalkZ can be used to annotate experimental gene sets using known pathway annotations and that its performance at this task is superior to gene enrichment analysis (GEA). CrossTalkZ (available at http://sonnhammer.sbc.su.se/download/software/CrossTalkZ/) is implemented in C++, easy to use, fast, accepts various input file formats, and produces a number of statistics. These include z-score, p-value, false discovery rate, and a test of normality for the null distributions.

α -induced reactions on 115In: Cross section measurements and statistical model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kiss, G. G.; Szücs, T.; Mohr, P.; Török, Zs.; Huszánk, R.; Gyürky, Gy.; Fülöp, Zs.

2018-05-01

Background: α -nucleus optical potentials are basic ingredients of statistical model calculations used in nucleosynthesis simulations. While the nucleon+nucleus optical potential is fairly well known, for the α +nucleus optical potential several different parameter sets exist and large deviations, reaching sometimes even an order of magnitude, are found between the cross section predictions calculated using different parameter sets. Purpose: A measurement of the radiative α -capture and the α -induced reaction cross sections on the nucleus 115In at low energies allows a stringent test of statistical model predictions. Since experimental data are scarce in this mass region, this measurement can be an important input to test the global applicability of α +nucleus optical model potentials and further ingredients of the statistical model. Methods: The reaction cross sections were measured by means of the activation method. The produced activities were determined by off-line detection of the γ rays and characteristic x rays emitted during the electron capture decay of the produced Sb isotopes. The 115In(α ,γ )119Sb and 115In(α ,n )Sb118m reaction cross sections were measured between Ec .m .=8.83 and 15.58 MeV, and the 115In(α ,n )Sb118g reaction was studied between Ec .m .=11.10 and 15.58 MeV. The theoretical analysis was performed within the statistical model. Results: The simultaneous measurement of the (α ,γ ) and (α ,n ) cross sections allowed us to determine a best-fit combination of all parameters for the statistical model. The α +nucleus optical potential is identified as the most important input for the statistical model. The best fit is obtained for the new Atomki-V1 potential, and good reproduction of the experimental data is also achieved for the first version of the Demetriou potentials and the simple McFadden-Satchler potential. The nucleon optical potential, the γ -ray strength function, and the level density parametrization are also

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

A goodness of fit statistic for the geometric distribution

OpenAIRE

Ferreira, J.A.

2003-01-01

textabstractWe propose a goodness of fit statistic for the geometric distribution and compare it in terms of power, via simulation, with the chi-square statistic. The statistic is based on the Lau-Rao theorem and can be seen as a discrete analogue of the total time on test statistic. The results suggest that the test based on the new statistic is generally superior to the chi-square test.

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-01-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990–2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. - Highlights: • We study the evolution of global polarization in GHG emissions. • We consider the four main GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O and F-gases. • We use the multidimensional polarization indices (). • We consider an endogenous grouping of countries (). • Most of the polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern.

Statistics for experimentalists

CERN Document Server

Cooper, B E

2014-01-01

Statistics for Experimentalists aims to provide experimental scientists with a working knowledge of statistical methods and search approaches to the analysis of data. The book first elaborates on probability and continuous probability distributions. Discussions focus on properties of continuous random variables and normal variables, independence of two random variables, central moments of a continuous distribution, prediction from a normal distribution, binomial probabilities, and multiplication of probabilities and independence. The text then examines estimation and tests of significance. Topics include estimators and estimates, expected values, minimum variance linear unbiased estimators, sufficient estimators, methods of maximum likelihood and least squares, and the test of significance method. The manuscript ponders on distribution-free tests, Poisson process and counting problems, correlation and function fitting, balanced incomplete randomized block designs and the analysis of covariance, and experiment...

Solar radiation data - statistical analysis and simulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mustacchi, C; Cena, V; Rocchi, M; Haghigat, F

1984-01-01

The activities consisted in collecting meteorological data on magnetic tape for ten european locations (with latitudes ranging from 42/sup 0/ to 56/sup 0/ N), analysing the multi-year sequences, developing mathematical models to generate synthetic sequences having the same statistical properties of the original data sets, and producing one or more Short Reference Years (SRY's) for each location. The meteorological parameters examinated were (for all the locations) global + diffuse radiation on horizontal surface, dry bulb temperature, sunshine duration. For some of the locations additional parameters were available, namely, global, beam and diffuse radiation on surfaces other than horizontal, wet bulb temperature, wind velocity, cloud type, cloud cover. The statistical properties investigated were mean, variance, autocorrelation, crosscorrelation with selected parameters, probability density function. For all the meteorological parameters, various mathematical models were built: linear regression, stochastic models of the AR and the DAR type. In each case, the model with the best statistical behaviour was selected for the production of a SRY for the relevant parameter/location.

New advances in the statistical parton distributions approach*

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soffer Jacques

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The quantum statistical parton distributions approach proposed more than one decade ago is revisited by considering a larger set of recent and accurate Deep Inelastic Scattering experimental results. It enables us to improve the description of the data by means of a new determination of the parton distributions. This global next-to-leading order QCD analysis leads to a good description of several structure functions, involving unpolarized parton distributions and helicity distributions, in terms of a rather small number of free parameters. There are many serious challenging issues. The predictions of this theoretical approach will be tested for single-jet production and charge asymmetry in W± production in p̄p and pp collisions up to LHC energies, using recent data and also for forthcoming experimental results.

Quality of reporting statistics in two Indian pharmacology journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaykaran; Yadav, Preeti

2011-04-01

To evaluate the reporting of the statistical methods in articles published in two Indian pharmacology journals. All original articles published since 2002 were downloaded from the journals' (Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) and Indian Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology (IJPP)) website. These articles were evaluated on the basis of appropriateness of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics was evaluated on the basis of reporting of method of description and central tendencies. Inferential statistics was evaluated on the basis of fulfilling of assumption of statistical methods and appropriateness of statistical tests. Values are described as frequencies, percentage, and 95% confidence interval (CI) around the percentages. Inappropriate descriptive statistics was observed in 150 (78.1%, 95% CI 71.7-83.3%) articles. Most common reason for this inappropriate descriptive statistics was use of mean ± SEM at the place of "mean (SD)" or "mean ± SD." Most common statistical method used was one-way ANOVA (58.4%). Information regarding checking of assumption of statistical test was mentioned in only two articles. Inappropriate statistical test was observed in 61 (31.7%, 95% CI 25.6-38.6%) articles. Most common reason for inappropriate statistical test was the use of two group test for three or more groups. Articles published in two Indian pharmacology journals are not devoid of statistical errors.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and Its Relevance for the Global Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dáša ADAŠKOVÁ

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT is one of important international nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament measures. One of its pillars is the verification mechanism that has been built as an international system of nuclear testing detection to enable the control of observance of the obligations anchored in the CTBT. Despite the great relevance to the global non-proliferation and disarmament efforts, the CTBT is still not in force. The main aim of the article is to summarize the importance of the CTBT and its entry into force not only from the international relations perspective but also from the perspective of the technical implementation of the monitoring system.

Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

CERN Document Server

Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

2011-01-01

An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

Statistical polarization in greenhouse gas emissions: Theory and evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen

2017-11-01

The current debate on climate change is over whether global warming can be limited in order to lessen its impacts. In this sense, evidence of a decrease in the statistical polarization in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could encourage countries to establish a stronger multilateral climate change agreement. Based on the interregional and intraregional components of the multivariate generalised entropy measures (Maasoumi, 1986), Gigliarano and Mosler (2009) proposed to study the statistical polarization concept from a multivariate view. In this paper, we apply this approach to study the evolution of such phenomenon in the global distribution of the main GHGs. The empirical analysis has been carried out for the time period 1990-2011, considering an endogenous grouping of countries (Aghevli and Mehran, 1981; Davies and Shorrocks, 1989). Most of the statistical polarization indices showed a slightly increasing pattern that was similar regardless of the number of groups considered. Finally, some policy implications are commented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asthma in pregnancy: association between the Asthma Control Test and the Global Initiative for Asthma classification and comparisons with spirometry.

Science.gov (United States)

de Araujo, Georgia Véras; Leite, Débora F B; Rizzo, José A; Sarinho, Emanuel S C

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to identify a possible association between the assessment of clinical asthma control using the Asthma Control Test (ACT) and the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) classification and to perform comparisons with values of spirometry. Through this cross-sectional study, 103 pregnant women with asthma were assessed in the period from October 2010 to October 2013 in the asthma pregnancy clinic at the Clinical Hospital of the Federal University of Pernambuco. Questionnaires concerning the level of asthma control were administered using the Global Initiative for Asthma classification, the Asthma Control Test validated for asthmatic expectant mothers and spirometry; all three methods of assessing asthma control were performed during the same visit between the twenty-first and twenty-seventh weeks of pregnancy. There was a significant association between clinical asthma control assessment using the Asthma Control Test and the Global Initiative for Asthma classification (pspirometry. This study shows that both the Global Initiative for Asthma classification and the Asthma Control Test can be used for asthmatic expectant mothers to assess the clinical control of asthma, especially at the end of the second trimester, which is assumed to be the period of worsening asthma exacerbations during pregnancy. We highlight the importance of the Asthma Control Test as a subjective instrument with easy application, easy interpretation and good reproducibility that does not require spirometry to assess the level of asthma control and can be used in the primary care of asthmatic expectant mothers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Category (CAT) IIIb Level 1 Test Plan for Global Positioning System (GPS)

Science.gov (United States)

1993-09-01

applications. CAT 11Tb is defined in Advisory Circular ( AC ) 120-28C [1] as "a precision instrument approach and landing with no decision height (DH), or...2) FAA AC 20-57A (Automatic Landing Systems) [31, AC 120-28C (Criteria for Approval of CAT III Landing Weather Minima) [I] and the FAA tunnel-in...AD-A274 098I I~II l~iiUIRII 11111ilIII2 DOT/FAA/RD-93/21 Category ( CAT ) IIb Level 1 MTR 93W0000102 Research and Test Plan for Global Development

Michelson Interferometer for Global High-Resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI): Monolithic Interferometer Design and Test

Science.gov (United States)

Harlander, John M.; Englert, Christoph R.; Brown, Charles M.; Marr, Kenneth D.; Miller, Ian J.; Zastera, Vaz; Bach, Bernhard W.; Mende, Stephen B.

2017-10-01

The design and laboratory tests of the interferometers for the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) instrument which measures thermospheric wind and temperature for the NASA-sponsored Ionospheric Connection (ICON) Explorer mission are described. The monolithic interferometers use the Doppler Asymmetric Spatial Heterodyne (DASH) Spectroscopy technique for wind measurements and a multi-element photometer approach to measure thermospheric temperatures. The DASH technique and overall optical design of the MIGHTI instrument are described in an overview followed by details on the design, element fabrication, assembly, laboratory tests and thermal control of the interferometers that are the heart of MIGHTI.

A Systematic Review of Statistical Methods Used to Test for Reliability of Medical Instruments Measuring Continuous Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafdzah Zaki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available   Objective(s: Reliability measures precision or the extent to which test results can be replicated. This is the first ever systematic review to identify statistical methods used to measure reliability of equipment measuring continuous variables. This studyalso aims to highlight the inappropriate statistical method used in the reliability analysis and its implication in the medical practice.   Materials and Methods: In 2010, five electronic databases were searched between 2007 and 2009 to look for reliability studies. A total of 5,795 titles were initially identified. Only 282 titles were potentially related, and finally 42 fitted the inclusion criteria. Results: The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC is the most popular method with 25 (60% studies having used this method followed by the comparing means (8 or 19%. Out of 25 studies using the ICC, only 7 (28% reported the confidence intervals and types of ICC used. Most studies (71% also tested the agreement of instruments. Conclusion: This study finds that the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is the most popular method used to assess the reliability of medical instruments measuring continuous outcomes. There are also inappropriate applications and interpretations of statistical methods in some studies. It is important for medical researchers to be aware of this issue, and be able to correctly perform analysis in reliability studies.

[Statistical approach to evaluate the occurrence of out-of acceptable ranges and accuracy for antimicrobial susceptibility tests in inter-laboratory quality control program].

Science.gov (United States)

Ueno, Tamio; Matuda, Junichi; Yamane, Nobuhisa

2013-03-01

To evaluate the occurrence of out-of acceptable ranges and accuracy of antimicrobial susceptibility tests, we applied a new statistical tool to the Inter-Laboratory Quality Control Program established by the Kyushu Quality Control Research Group. First, we defined acceptable ranges of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for broth microdilution tests and inhibitory zone diameter for disk diffusion tests on the basis of Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) M100-S21. In the analysis, more than two out-of acceptable range results in the 20 tests were considered as not allowable according to the CLSI document. Of the 90 participating laboratories, 46 (51%) experienced one or more occurrences of out-of acceptable range results. Then, a binomial test was applied to each participating laboratory. The results indicated that the occurrences of out-of acceptable range results in the 11 laboratories were significantly higher when compared to the CLSI recommendation (allowable rate laboratory was statistically compared with zero using a Student's t-test. The results revealed that 5 of the 11 above laboratories reported erroneous test results that systematically drifted to the side of resistance. In conclusion, our statistical approach has enabled us to detect significantly higher occurrences and source of interpretive errors in antimicrobial susceptibility tests; therefore, this approach can provide us with additional information that can improve the accuracy of the test results in clinical microbiology laboratories.

Applicability of empirical correlations for estimating global solar radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopinathan, K.K.; Baholo, M.

1987-01-01

Three empirical models suggested by different investigators, for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface, are compared statistically to test their universal applicability. The models thus compared are those suggested by Rietveld, Glover and McCulloch and Gopinathan. The models are compared by calculating the root mean square error, mean bias error and mean relative percentage error values. The model suggested by Gopinathan yields the best results in terms of root mean square, mean bias and mean percentage errors. The model by Rietveld is the second best and the model by Glover and McCulloch comes at third place. However, the differences in the magnitude of errors among the three models are very small and all the three models can be considered to be accurate for global radiation estimation for any location in the world

Global Electric Circuit Implications of Combined Aircraft Storm Electric Current Measurements and Satellite-Based Diurnal Lightning Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

2011-01-01

Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean thunderstorms is 1.7 A while the mean current for land thunderstorms is 1.0 A. The mean current for ocean ESCs 0.41 A and the mean current for land ESCs is 0.13 A. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal flash rate statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean) from thunderstorms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from ESCs, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Mean storm counts are 1100 for land

Optimal allocation of testing resources for statistical simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Quintana, Carolina; Millwater, Harry R.; Singh, Gulshan; Golden, Patrick

2015-07-01

Statistical estimates from simulation involve uncertainty caused by the variability in the input random variables due to limited data. Allocating resources to obtain more experimental data of the input variables to better characterize their probability distributions can reduce the variance of statistical estimates. The methodology proposed determines the optimal number of additional experiments required to minimize the variance of the output moments given single or multiple constraints. The method uses multivariate t-distribution and Wishart distribution to generate realizations of the population mean and covariance of the input variables, respectively, given an amount of available data. This method handles independent and correlated random variables. A particle swarm method is used for the optimization. The optimal number of additional experiments per variable depends on the number and variance of the initial data, the influence of the variable in the output function and the cost of each additional experiment. The methodology is demonstrated using a fretting fatigue example.

IEEE Std 101-1972: IEEE guide for the statistical analysis of thermal life test data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Procedures for estimating the thermal life of electrical insulation systems and materials call for life tests at several temperatures, usually well above the expected normal operating temperature. By the selection of high temperatures for the tests, life of the insulation samples will be terminated, according to some selected failure criterion or criteria, within relatively short times -- typically one week to one year. The result of these thermally accelerated life tests will be a set of data of life values for a corresponding set of temperatures. Usually the data consist of a set of life values for each of two to four (occasionally more) test temperatures, 10 C to 25 C apart. The objective then is to establish from these data the mean life vales at each temperature and the functional dependence of life on temperature, as well as the statistical consistency and the confidence to be attributed to the mean life values and the functional life temperature dependence. The purpose of this guide is to assist in this objective and to give guidance for comparing the results of tests on different materials and of different tests on the same materials

FADTTSter: accelerating hypothesis testing with functional analysis of diffusion tensor tract statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Jean; Prieto, Juan C.; Styner, Martin

2017-03-01

Functional Analysis of Diffusion Tensor Tract Statistics (FADTTS) is a toolbox for analysis of white matter (WM) fiber tracts. It allows associating diffusion properties along major WM bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these WM tract properties. However, to use this toolbox, a user must have an intermediate knowledge in scripting languages (MATLAB). FADTTSter was created to overcome this issue and make the statistical analysis accessible to any non-technical researcher. FADTTSter is actively being used by researchers at the University of North Carolina. FADTTSter guides non-technical users through a series of steps including quality control of subjects and fibers in order to setup the necessary parameters to run FADTTS. Additionally, FADTTSter implements interactive charts for FADTTS' outputs. This interactive chart enhances the researcher experience and facilitates the analysis of the results. FADTTSter's motivation is to improve usability and provide a new analysis tool to the community that complements FADTTS. Ultimately, by enabling FADTTS to a broader audience, FADTTSter seeks to accelerate hypothesis testing in neuroimaging studies involving heterogeneous clinical data and diffusion tensor imaging. This work is submitted to the Biomedical Applications in Molecular, Structural, and Functional Imaging conference. The source code of this application is available in NITRC.

Significance tests for functional data with complex dependence structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Staicu, Ana-Maria; Lahiri, Soumen N; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-01-01

We propose an L 2 -norm based global testing procedure for the null hypothesis that multiple group mean functions are equal, for functional data with complex dependence structure. Specifically, we consider the setting of functional data with a multilevel structure of the form groups-clusters or subjects-units, where the unit-level profiles are spatially correlated within the cluster, and the cluster-level data are independent. Orthogonal series expansions are used to approximate the group mean functions and the test statistic is estimated using the basis coefficients. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is developed, under mild regularity conditions. To our knowledge this is the first work that studies hypothesis testing, when data have such complex multilevel functional and spatial structure. Two small-sample alternatives, including a novel block bootstrap for functional data, are proposed, and their performance is examined in simulation studies. The paper concludes with an illustration of a motivating experiment.

Significance tests for functional data with complex dependence structure

KAUST Repository

Staicu, Ana-Maria

2015-01-01

We propose an L (2)-norm based global testing procedure for the null hypothesis that multiple group mean functions are equal, for functional data with complex dependence structure. Specifically, we consider the setting of functional data with a multilevel structure of the form groups-clusters or subjects-units, where the unit-level profiles are spatially correlated within the cluster, and the cluster-level data are independent. Orthogonal series expansions are used to approximate the group mean functions and the test statistic is estimated using the basis coefficients. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is developed, under mild regularity conditions. To our knowledge this is the first work that studies hypothesis testing, when data have such complex multilevel functional and spatial structure. Two small-sample alternatives, including a novel block bootstrap for functional data, are proposed, and their performance is examined in simulation studies. The paper concludes with an illustration of a motivating experiment.

Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Romilly, Peter

2005-07-01

Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

Statistical refinements for data analysis of mollusc reproduction tests: an example with Lymnaea stagnalis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holbech, Henrik

-contribution of each individual to the measured response. Furthermore, the combination of a Gamma-Poisson stochastic part with a Weibull concentration-response model allowed accounting for the inter-replicate variability. Second, we checked for the possibility of optimizing the initial experimental design through...... was twofold. First, we refined the statistical analyses of reproduction data accounting for mortality all along the test period. The variable “number of clutches/eggs produced per individual-day” was used for EC x modelling, as classically done in epidemiology in order to account for the time...

Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

Science.gov (United States)

Macdonald, Ranald R

2004-11-01

Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

The World of Organic Agriculture – Statistics and Emerging Trends (Session at the BIOFACH 2015)

OpenAIRE

Arbenz, Markus; Willer, Helga; Lernoud, Julia; Huber, Beate; Amarjit, Sahota

2015-01-01

The World of Organic Agriculture – Statistics and Emerging Trends (Session at the BIOFACH 2015) Presentations - Introduction (Markus Arbenz) - Organic Agriculture Worldwide: Current Statistics (Helga Willer, Julia Lernoud) - The World of Organic Agriculture: Regulations and Certification Emerging Trends 2015 (Beate Huber, Christiane Mannigel) - Global survey on Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) (Julia Lernoud, Helga Willer) - Global Organic Food & Drink: Market Update...

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Goodness of Fit Test and Test of Independence by Entropy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Sharifdoost

2009-06-01

Full Text Available To test whether a set of data has a specific distribution or not, we can use the goodness of fit test. This test can be done by one of Pearson X 2 -statistic or the likelihood ratio statistic G 2 , which are asymptotically equal, and also by using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic in continuous distributions. In this paper, we introduce a new test statistic for goodness of fit test which is based on entropy distance, and which can be applied for large sample sizes. We compare this new statistic with the classical test statistics X 2 , G 2 , and Tn by some simulation studies. We conclude that the new statistic is more sensitive than the usual statistics to the rejection of distributions which are almost closed to the desired distribution. Also for testing independence, a new test statistic based on mutual information is introduced

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

2003-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

Non-statistical behavior of coupled optical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, G.; Pando Lambruschini, C.; Sinha, S.; Cerdeira, H.A.

1991-10-01

We study globally coupled chaotic maps modeling an optical system, and find clear evidence of non-statistical behavior: the mean square deviation (MSD) of the mean field saturates with respect to increase in the number of elements coupled, after a critical value, and its distribution is clearly non-Gaussian. We also find that the power spectrum of the mean field displays well defined peaks, indicating a subtle coherence among different elements, even in the ''turbulent'' phase. This system is a physically realistic model that may be experimentally realizable. It is also a higher dimensional example (as each individual element is given by a complex map). Its study confirms that the phenomena observed in a wide class of coupled one-dimensional maps are present here as well. This gives more evidence to believe that such non-statistical behavior is probably generic in globally coupled systems. We also investigate the influence of parametric fluctuations on the MSD. (author). 10 refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

Software testing and global industry future paradigms

CERN Document Server

Casey, Valentine; Richardson, Ita

2009-01-01

Today software development has truly become a globally sourced commodity. This trend has been facilitated by the availability of highly skilled software professionals in low cost locations in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Far East. Organisations