Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation
Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik
2001-07-01
Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)
Global Organic Statistics 2004
Willer, Helga; Yussefi, Minou
2004-01-01
Organic agriculture has developed rapidly worldwide during the last few years and is now practised in almost all countries of the world. Its share of agricultural land and farms continues to grow. The transparencies illustrate the status of global organic agriculture in 2004.
Kanji, Gopal K
2006-01-01
This expanded and updated Third Edition of Gopal K. Kanji's best-selling resource on statistical tests covers all the most commonly used tests with information on how to calculate and interpret results with simple datasets. Each entry begins with a short summary statement about the test's purpose, and contains details of the test objective, the limitations (or assumptions) involved, a brief outline of the method, a worked example, and the numerical calculation. 100 Statistical Tests, Third Edition is the one indispensable guide for users of statistical materials and consumers of statistical information at all levels and across all disciplines.
Global cancer statistics, 2012.
Torre, Lindsey A; Bray, Freddie; Siegel, Rebecca L; Ferlay, Jacques; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Jemal, Ahmedin
2015-03-01
applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.
Testing statistical hypotheses
Lehmann, E L
2005-01-01
The third edition of Testing Statistical Hypotheses updates and expands upon the classic graduate text, emphasizing optimality theory for hypothesis testing and confidence sets. The principal additions include a rigorous treatment of large sample optimality, together with the requisite tools. In addition, an introduction to the theory of resampling methods such as the bootstrap is developed. The sections on multiple testing and goodness of fit testing are expanded. The text is suitable for Ph.D. students in statistics and includes over 300 new problems out of a total of more than 760. E.L. Lehmann is Professor of Statistics Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the recipient of honorary degrees from the University of Leiden, The Netherlands and the University of Chicago. He is the author of Elements of Large-Sample Theory and (with George Casella) he is also the author of Theory of Point Estimat...
Statistical Test for Bivariate Uniformity
Zhenmin Chen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of the multidimension uniformity test is to check whether the underlying probability distribution of a multidimensional population differs from the multidimensional uniform distribution. The multidimensional uniformity test has applications in various fields such as biology, astronomy, and computer science. Such a test, however, has received less attention in the literature compared with the univariate case. A new test statistic for checking multidimensional uniformity is proposed in this paper. Some important properties of the proposed test statistic are discussed. As a special case, the bivariate statistic test is discussed in detail in this paper. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the power of the newly proposed test with the distance-to-boundary test, which is a recently published statistical test for multidimensional uniformity. It has been shown that the test proposed in this paper is more powerful than the distance-to-boundary test in some cases.
Testing statistical hypotheses of equivalence
Wellek, Stefan
2010-01-01
Equivalence testing has grown significantly in importance over the last two decades, especially as its relevance to a variety of applications has become understood. Yet published work on the general methodology remains scattered in specialists' journals, and for the most part, it focuses on the relatively narrow topic of bioequivalence assessment.With a far broader perspective, Testing Statistical Hypotheses of Equivalence provides the first comprehensive treatment of statistical equivalence testing. The author addresses a spectrum of specific, two-sided equivalence testing problems, from the
Kaufman Jay S
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract In 2004, Garcia-Berthou and Alcaraz published "Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers," a critique of statistical errors that received a tremendous amount of attention. One of their observations was that the final reported digit of p-values in articles published in the journal Nature departed substantially from the uniform distribution that they suggested should be expected. In 2006, Jeng critiqued that critique, observing that the statistical analysis of those terminal digits had been based on comparing the actual distribution to a uniform continuous distribution, when digits obviously are discretely distributed. Jeng corrected the calculation and reported statistics that did not so clearly support the claim of a digit preference. However delightful it may be to read a critique of statistical errors in a critique of statistical errors, we nevertheless found several aspects of the whole exchange to be quite troubling, prompting our own meta-critique of the analysis. The previous discussion emphasized statistical significance testing. But there are various reasons to expect departure from the uniform distribution in terminal digits of p-values, so that simply rejecting the null hypothesis is not terribly informative. Much more importantly, Jeng found that the original p-value of 0.043 should have been 0.086, and suggested this represented an important difference because it was on the other side of 0.05. Among the most widely reiterated (though often ignored tenets of modern quantitative research methods is that we should not treat statistical significance as a bright line test of whether we have observed a phenomenon. Moreover, it sends the wrong message about the role of statistics to suggest that a result should be dismissed because of limited statistical precision when it is so easy to gather more data. In response to these limitations, we gathered more data to improve the statistical precision, and
Local and Global Thinking in Statistical Inference
Pratt, Dave; Johnston-Wilder, Peter; Ainley, Janet; Mason, John
2008-01-01
In this reflective paper, we explore students' local and global thinking about informal statistical inference through our observations of 10- to 11-year-olds, challenged to infer the unknown configuration of a virtual die, but able to use the die to generate as much data as they felt necessary. We report how they tended to focus on local changes…
Monotonicity of chi-square test statistics
Ryu, Keunkwan
2003-01-01
This paper establishes monotonicity of the chi-square test statistic. As the more efficient parameter estimator is plugged into the test statistic, the degrees of freedom of the resulting chi-square test statistic monotonically increase.
Global aesthetic surgery statistics: a closer look.
Heidekrueger, Paul I; Juran, S; Ehrl, D; Aung, T; Tanna, N; Broer, P Niclas
2017-08-01
Obtaining quality global statistics about surgical procedures remains an important yet challenging task. The International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ISAPS) reports the total number of surgical and non-surgical procedures performed worldwide on a yearly basis. While providing valuable insight, ISAPS' statistics leave two important factors unaccounted for: (1) the underlying base population, and (2) the number of surgeons performing the procedures. Statistics of the published ISAPS' 'International Survey on Aesthetic/Cosmetic Surgery' were analysed by country, taking into account the underlying national base population according to the official United Nations population estimates. Further, the number of surgeons per country was used to calculate the number of surgeries performed per surgeon. In 2014, based on ISAPS statistics, national surgical procedures ranked in the following order: 1st USA, 2nd Brazil, 3rd South Korea, 4th Mexico, 5th Japan, 6th Germany, 7th Colombia, and 8th France. When considering the size of the underlying national populations, the demand for surgical procedures per 100,000 people changes the overall ranking substantially. It was also found that the rate of surgical procedures per surgeon shows great variation between the responding countries. While the US and Brazil are often quoted as the countries with the highest demand for plastic surgery, according to the presented analysis, other countries surpass these countries in surgical procedures per capita. While data acquisition and quality should be improved in the future, valuable insight regarding the demand for surgical procedures can be gained by taking specific demographic and geographic factors into consideration.
Statistical hypothesis testing with SAS and R
Taeger, Dirk
2014-01-01
A comprehensive guide to statistical hypothesis testing with examples in SAS and R When analyzing datasets the following questions often arise:Is there a short hand procedure for a statistical test available in SAS or R?If so, how do I use it?If not, how do I program the test myself? This book answers these questions and provides an overview of the most commonstatistical test problems in a comprehensive way, making it easy to find and performan appropriate statistical test. A general summary of statistical test theory is presented, along with a basicdescription for each test, including the
Global envelope tests for spatial processes
Myllymäki, Mari; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Grabarnik, Pavel;
Envelope tests are a popular tool in spatial statistics, where they are used in goodness-of-fit testing. These tests graphically compare an empirical function T(r) with its simulated counterparts from the null model. However, the type I error probability α is conventionally controlled for a fixed...... distance r only, whereas the functions are inspected on an interval of distances I. In this study, we propose two approaches related to Barnard's Monte Carlo test for building global envelope tests on I: (1) ordering the empirical and simulated functions based on their r-wise ranks among each other, and (2......) the construction of envelopes for a deviation test. These new tests allow the a priori selection of the global α and they yield p-values. We illustrate these tests using simulated and real point pattern data....
Polarimetric Segmentation Using Wishart Test Statistic
Skriver, Henning; Schou, Jesper; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg;
2002-01-01
A newly developed test statistic for equality of two complex covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution and an associated asymptotic probability for the test statistic has been used in a segmentation algorithm. The segmentation algorithm is based on the MUM (merge using moments......) approach, which is a merging algorithm for single channel SAR images. The polarimetric version described in this paper uses the above-mentioned test statistic for merging. The segmentation algorithm has been applied to polarimetric SAR data from the Danish dual-frequency, airborne polarimetric SAR, EMISAR....... The results show clearly an improved segmentation performance for the full polarimetric algorithm compared to single channel approaches....
Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models
DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.
2016-12-01
A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.
Teaching Statistics in Language Testing Courses
Brown, James Dean
2013-01-01
The purpose of this article is to examine the literature on teaching statistics for useful ideas that teachers of language testing courses can draw on and incorporate into their teaching toolkits as they see fit. To those ends, the article addresses eight questions: What is known generally about teaching statistics? Why are students so anxious…
Teaching Statistics in Language Testing Courses
Brown, James Dean
2013-01-01
The purpose of this article is to examine the literature on teaching statistics for useful ideas that teachers of language testing courses can draw on and incorporate into their teaching toolkits as they see fit. To those ends, the article addresses eight questions: What is known generally about teaching statistics? Why are students so anxious…
SPSS for applied sciences basic statistical testing
Davis, Cole
2013-01-01
This book offers a quick and basic guide to using SPSS and provides a general approach to solving problems using statistical tests. It is both comprehensive in terms of the tests covered and the applied settings it refers to, and yet is short and easy to understand. Whether you are a beginner or an intermediate level test user, this book will help you to analyse different types of data in applied settings. It will also give you the confidence to use other statistical software and to extend your expertise to more specific scientific settings as required.The author does not use mathematical form
Statistical test of VEP waveform equality.
Young, Rockefeller S L; Kimura, Eiji
2010-04-01
The aim of the study was to describe a theory and method for inferring the statistical significance of a visually evoked cortical potential (VEP) recording. The statistical evaluation is predicated on the pre-stimulus VEP as estimates of the cortical potentials expected when the stimulus does not produce an effect, a mathematical transform to convert the voltages into standard deviations from zero, and a time-series approach for estimating the variability of between-session VEPs under the null hypothesis. Empirical and Monte Carlo analyses address issues concerned with testability, statistical validity, clinical feasibility, as well as limitations of the proposed method. We conclude that visual electrophysiological recordings can be evaluated as a statistical study of n = 1 subject using time-series analysis when confounding effects are adequately controlled. The statistical test can be performed on either a single VEP or the difference between pairs of VEPs.
Analysis of Preference Data Using Intermediate Test Statistic Abstract
PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU
2013-06-01
Jun 1, 2013 ... Intermediate statistic is a link between Friedman test statistic and the multinomial statistic. The statistic is ... The null hypothesis Ho .... [7] Taplin, R.H., The Statistical Analysis of Preference Data, Applied Statistics, No. 4, pp.
Statistical test theory for the behavioral sciences
de Gruijter, Dato N M
2007-01-01
Since the development of the first intelligence test in the early 20th century, educational and psychological tests have become important measurement techniques to quantify human behavior. Focusing on this ubiquitous yet fruitful area of research, Statistical Test Theory for the Behavioral Sciences provides both a broad overview and a critical survey of assorted testing theories and models used in psychology, education, and other behavioral science fields. Following a logical progression from basic concepts to more advanced topics, the book first explains classical test theory, covering true score, measurement error, and reliability. It then presents generalizability theory, which provides a framework to deal with various aspects of test scores. In addition, the authors discuss the concept of validity in testing, offering a strategy for evidence-based validity. In the two chapters devoted to item response theory (IRT), the book explores item response models, such as the Rasch model, and applications, incl...
Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming
M. Beenstock; Reingewertz, Y.; N. Paldor
2012-01-01
We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are st...
New Graphical Methods and Test Statistics for Testing Composite Normality
Marc S. Paolella
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational method is derived, which delivers the test statistic and also a highly accurate p-value approximation, essentially instantaneously. The MSP test is demonstrated to have higher power against asymmetric alternatives than the well-known and powerful Jarque-Bera test. A further size-correct test, based on combining two test statistics, is shown to have yet higher power. The methodology employed is fully general and can be applied to any i.i.d. univariate continuous distribution setting.
Statistical tests to compare motif count exceptionalities
Vandewalle Vincent
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Finding over- or under-represented motifs in biological sequences is now a common task in genomics. Thanks to p-value calculation for motif counts, exceptional motifs are identified and represent candidate functional motifs. The present work addresses the related question of comparing the exceptionality of one motif in two different sequences. Just comparing the motif count p-values in each sequence is indeed not sufficient to decide if this motif is significantly more exceptional in one sequence compared to the other one. A statistical test is required. Results We develop and analyze two statistical tests, an exact binomial one and an asymptotic likelihood ratio test, to decide whether the exceptionality of a given motif is equivalent or significantly different in two sequences of interest. For that purpose, motif occurrences are modeled by Poisson processes, with a special care for overlapping motifs. Both tests can take the sequence compositions into account. As an illustration, we compare the octamer exceptionalities in the Escherichia coli K-12 backbone versus variable strain-specific loops. Conclusion The exact binomial test is particularly adapted for small counts. For large counts, we advise to use the likelihood ratio test which is asymptotic but strongly correlated with the exact binomial test and very simple to use.
Conditional statistical inference with multistage testing designs.
Zwitser, Robert J; Maris, Gunter
2015-03-01
In this paper it is demonstrated how statistical inference from multistage test designs can be made based on the conditional likelihood. Special attention is given to parameter estimation, as well as the evaluation of model fit. Two reasons are provided why the fit of simple measurement models is expected to be better in adaptive designs, compared to linear designs: more parameters are available for the same number of observations; and undesirable response behavior, like slipping and guessing, might be avoided owing to a better match between item difficulty and examinee proficiency. The results are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data.
Statistical analysis of concrete quality testing results
Jevtić Dragica
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper statistically investigates the testing results of compressive strength and density of control concrete specimens tested in the Laboratory for materials, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, during 2012. The total number of 4420 concrete specimens were tested, which were sampled on different locations - either on concrete production site (concrete plant, or concrete placement location (construction site. To be exact, these samples were made of concrete which was produced on 15 concrete plants, i.e. placed in at 50 different reinforced concrete structures, built during 2012 by 22 different contractors. It is a known fact that the achieved values of concrete compressive strength are very important, both for quality and durability assessment of concrete inside the structural elements, as well as for calculation of their load-bearing capacity limit. Together with the compressive strength testing results, the data concerning requested (designed concrete class, matching between the designed and the achieved concrete quality, concrete density values and frequency of execution of concrete works during 2012 were analyzed.
Statistical reasoning in clinical trials: hypothesis testing.
Kelen, G D; Brown, C G; Ashton, J
1988-01-01
Hypothesis testing is based on certain statistical and mathematical principles that allow investigators to evaluate data by making decisions based on the probability or implausibility of observing the results obtained. However, classic hypothesis testing has its limitations, and probabilities mathematically calculated are inextricably linked to sample size. Furthermore, the meaning of the p value frequently is misconstrued as indicating that the findings are also of clinical significance. Finally, hypothesis testing allows for four possible outcomes, two of which are errors that can lead to erroneous adoption of certain hypotheses: 1. The null hypothesis is rejected when, in fact, it is false. 2. The null hypothesis is rejected when, in fact, it is true (type I or alpha error). 3. The null hypothesis is conceded when, in fact, it is true. 4. The null hypothesis is conceded when, in fact, it is false (type II or beta error). The implications of these errors, their relation to sample size, the interpretation of negative trials, and strategies related to the planning of clinical trials will be explored in a future article in this journal.
A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing
Thomas, Edward V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-02-01
Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning
A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing.
Thomas, Edward V.
2015-02-01
Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning
Historical global statistics for mineral and material commodities
Matos, Grecia R.; Miller, Lisa D.; Barry, James J.; Matos, Grecia R.
2015-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides information on the current use and flow of minerals and mineral-based materials in the U.S. and world economies. This Data Series report on “Historical Global Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities” contains information on the production of selected commodities from 1990 to the most current year. The data may be used in the analysis of socioeconomic developments and trends and in the study of environmental issues associated with the extraction and processing of the selected commodities.
Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1000-1 mb
Randel, William J.
1992-01-01
The atlas presents atmospheric general circulation statistics derived from twelve years (1979-90) of daily National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational geopotential height analyses; it is an update of a prior atlas using data over 1979-1986. These global analyses are available on pressure levels covering 1000-1 mb (approximately 0-50 km). The geopotential grids are a combined product of the Climate Analysis Center (which produces analyses over 70-1 mb) and operational NMC analyses (over 1000-100 mb). Balance horizontal winds and hydrostatic temperatures are derived from the geopotential fields.
Monte Carlo testing in spatial statistics, with applications to spatial residuals
Mrkvička, Tomáš; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Myllymäki, Mari;
2016-01-01
This paper reviews recent advances made in testing in spatial statistics and discussed at the Spatial Statistics conference in Avignon 2015. The rank and directional quantile envelope tests are discussed and practical rules for their use are provided. These tests are global envelope tests with an...... a two-dimensional smoothed residual field. Second, a goodness-of-fit test of a geostatistical model is performed based on two-dimensional raw residuals....
Statistical Tests of Galactic Dynamo Theory
Chamandy, Luke; Shukurov, Anvar; Taylor, A. Russ
2016-12-01
Mean-field galactic dynamo theory is the leading theory to explain the prevalence of regular magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, but its systematic comparison with observations is still incomplete and fragmentary. Here we compare predictions of mean-field dynamo models to observational data on magnetic pitch angle and the strength of the mean magnetic field. We demonstrate that a standard {α }2{{Ω }} dynamo model produces pitch angles of the regular magnetic fields of nearby galaxies that are reasonably consistent with available data. The dynamo estimates of the magnetic field strength are generally within a factor of a few of the observational values. Reasonable agreement between theoretical and observed pitch angles generally requires the turbulent correlation time τ to be in the range of 10-20 {Myr}, in agreement with standard estimates. Moreover, good agreement also requires that the ratio of the ionized gas scale height to root-mean-square turbulent velocity increases with radius. Our results thus widen the possibilities to constrain interstellar medium parameters using observations of magnetic fields. This work is a step toward systematic statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory. Such studies are becoming more and more feasible as larger data sets are acquired using current and up-and-coming instruments.
Accelerated testing statistical models, test plans, and data analysis
Nelson, Wayne B
2009-01-01
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "". . . a goldmine of knowledge on accelerated life testing principles and practices . . . one of the very few capable of advancing the science of reliability. It definitely belongs in every bookshelf on engineering.""-Dev G.
Hypothesis testing and statistical analysis of microbiome
Yinglin Xia
2017-09-01
Full Text Available After the initiation of Human Microbiome Project in 2008, various biostatistic and bioinformatic tools for data analysis and computational methods have been developed and applied to microbiome studies. In this review and perspective, we discuss the research and statistical hypotheses in gut microbiome studies, focusing on mechanistic concepts that underlie the complex relationships among host, microbiome, and environment. We review the current available statistic tools and highlight recent progress of newly developed statistical methods and models. Given the current challenges and limitations in biostatistic approaches and tools, we discuss the future direction in developing statistical methods and models for the microbiome studies.
Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender
Lesner, Rune Vammen
This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market....... It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure but increases in job transitions and that the fraction of women in high-ranking positions within a firm does...... not affect the level of statistical discrimination by gender....
Statistical Decision Theory Estimation, Testing, and Selection
Liese, Friedrich
2008-01-01
Suitable for advanced graduate students and researchers in mathematical statistics and decision theory, this title presents an account of the concepts and a treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory
Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach
Fluegel, Alex
2007-02-01
A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.
The Global Transformation toward Testing for Accountability
Smith, William C.
2014-01-01
To ensure equal access to high quality education, the global expansion of universal basic education has included accountability measures in the form of academic tests. Presently the majority of countries participate in national testing; however, the past two decades have seen a substantial shift in test characteristics and aims. This article…
Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models
Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K
2011-01-01
An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a
Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments
2011-01-01
This paper raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators. Statistical significance tests are highly controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with s...
Assessing Statistical Aspects of Test Fairness with Structural Equation Modelling
Kline, Rex B.
2013-01-01
Test fairness and test bias are not synonymous concepts. Test bias refers to statistical evidence that the psychometrics or interpretation of test scores depend on group membership, such as gender or race, when such differences are not expected. A test that is grossly biased may be judged to be unfair, but test fairness concerns the broader, more…
Similar tests and the standardized log likelihood ratio statistic
Jensen, Jens Ledet
1986-01-01
When testing an affine hypothesis in an exponential family the 'ideal' procedure is to calculate the exact similar test, or an approximation to this, based on the conditional distribution given the minimal sufficient statistic under the null hypothesis. By contrast to this there is a 'primitive......' approach in which the marginal distribution of a test statistic considered and any nuisance parameter appearing in the test statistic is replaced by an estimate. We show here that when using standardized likelihood ratio statistics the 'primitive' procedure is in fact an 'ideal' procedure to order O(n -3...
A note on measurement scales and statistical testing
Meijer, R.R.; Oosterloo, Sebe J.
2008-01-01
In elementary books on applied statistics (e.g., Siegel, 1988; Agresti, 1990) and books on research methodology in psychology and personality assessment (e.g., Aiken, 1999), it is often suggested that the choice of a statistical test and the choice of statistical operations should be determined by
A note on measurement scales and statistical testing
Meijer, Rob R.; Oosterloo, Sebie J.
2008-01-01
In elementary books on applied statistics (e.g., Siegel, 1988; Agresti, 1990) and books on research methodology in psychology and personality assessment (e.g., Aiken, 1999), it is often suggested that the choice of a statistical test and the choice of statistical operations should be determined by t
A statistical procedure for testing financial contagion
Attilio Gardini
2013-05-01
Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to provide an analysis of contagion through the measurement of the risk premia disequilibria dynamics. In order to discriminate among several disequilibrium situations we propose to test contagion on the basis of a two-step procedure: in the first step we estimate the preference parameters of the consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM to control for fundamentals and to measure the equilibrium risk premia in different countries; in the second step we measure the differences among empirical risk premia and equilibrium risk premia in order to test cross-country disequilibrium situations due to contagion. Disequilibrium risk premium measures are modelled by the multivariate DCC-GARCH model including a deterministic crisis variable. The model describes simultaneously the risk premia dynamics due to endogenous amplifications of volatility and to exogenous idiosyncratic shocks (contagion, having controlled for fundamentals effects in the first step. Our approach allows us to achieve two goals: (i to identify the disequilibria generated by irrational behaviours of the agents, which cause increasing in volatility that is not explained by the economic fundamentals but is endogenous to financial markets, and (ii to assess the existence of contagion effect defined by exogenous shift in cross-country return correlations during crisis periods. Our results show evidence of contagion from the United States to United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Italy during the financial crisis which started in 2007-08.
Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments
Schneider, Jesper W
2011-01-01
This paper raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators. Statistical significance tests are highly controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice of such tests, their dichotomous application in decision making, the difference between statistical and substantive significance, the implausibility of most null hypotheses, the crucial assumption of randomness, as well as the utility of standard errors and confidence intervals for inferential purposes. We argue that applying statistical significance tests and mechanically adhering to their results is highly problematic and detrimental to critical thinki...
Distinguish Dynamic Basic Blocks by Structural Statistical Testing
Petit, Matthieu; Gotlieb, Arnaud
Statistical testing aims at generating random test data that respect selected probabilistic properties. A distribution probability is associated with the program input space in order to achieve statistical test purpose: to test the most frequent usage of software or to maximize the probability...... of satisfying a structural coverage criterion for instance. In this paper, we propose a new statistical testing method that generates sequences of random test data that respect the following probabilistic properties: 1) each sequence guarantees the uniform selection of feasible paths only and 2) the uniform...... control flow path) during the test data selection. We implemented this algorithm in a statistical test data generator for Java programs. A first experimental validation is presented...
Misuse of statistical test in three decades of psychotherapy research.
Dar, R; Serlin, R C; Omer, H
1994-02-01
This article reviews the misuse of statistical tests in psychotherapy research studies published in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology in the years 1967-1968, 1977-1978, and 1987-1988. It focuses on 3 major problems in statistical practice: inappropriate uses of null hypothesis tests and p values, neglect of effect size, and inflation of Type I error rate. The impressive frequency of these problems is documented, and changes in statistical practices over the past 3 decades are interpreted in light of trends in psychotherapy research. The article concludes with practical suggestions for rational application of statistical tests.
Quantum Hypothesis Testing and Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics
Jaksic, V; Pillet, C -A; Seiringer, R
2011-01-01
We extend the mathematical theory of quantum hypothesis testing to the general $W^*$-algebraic setting and explore its relation with recent developments in non-equilibrium quantum statistical mechanics. In particular, we relate the large deviation principle for the full counting statistics of entropy flow to quantum hypothesis testing of the arrow of time.
Hayslett, H T
1991-01-01
Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the
Global warming and local dimming. The statistical evidence
Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)
2011-01-15
Two effects largely determine global warming: the well-known greenhouse effect and the less well-known solar radiation effect. An increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributes to global warming: the greenhouse effect. In addition, small particles, called aerosols, reflect and absorb sunlight in the atmosphere. More pollution causes an increase in aerosols, so that less sunlight reaches the Earth (global dimming). Despite its name, global dimming is primarily a local (or regional) effect. Because of the dimming the Earth becomes cooler: the solar radiation effect. Global warming thus consists of two components: the (global) greenhouse effect and the (local) solar radiation effect, which work in opposite directions. Only the sum of the greenhouse effect and the solar radiation effect is observed, not the two effects separately. Our purpose is to identify the two effects. This is important, because the existence of the solar radiation effect obscures the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. We propose a simple climate model with a small number of parameters. We gather data from a large number of weather stations around the world for the period 1959-2002. We then estimate the parameters using dynamic panel data methods, and quantify the parameter uncertainty. Next, we decompose the estimated temperature change of 0.73C (averaged over the weather stations) into a greenhouse effect of 1.87C, a solar radiation effect of -1.09C, and a small remainder term. Finally, we subject our findings to extensive sensitivity analyses.
Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments
Schneider, Jesper Wiborg
2013-01-01
This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice...... of such tests, their dichotomous application in decision making, the difference between statistical and substantive significance, the implausibility of most null hypotheses, the crucial assumption of randomness, as well as the utility of standard errors and confidence intervals for inferential purposes. We...
Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments
Schneider, Jesper Wiborg
2013-01-01
This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice...... are important or not. On the contrary their use may be harmful. Like many other critics, we generally believe that statistical significance tests are over- and misused in the empirical sciences including scientometrics and we encourage a reform on these matters....
Kleibergen, F.R.
2002-01-01
We extend the novel pivotal statistics for testing the parameters in the instrumental variables regression model. We show that these statistics result from a decomposition of the Anderson-Rubin statistic into two independent pivotal statistics. The first statistic is a score statistic that tests loc
Sanabria, Federico; Killeen, Peter R.
2007-01-01
Despite being under challenge for the past 50 years, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) remains dominant in the scientific field for want of viable alternatives. NHST, along with its significance level "p," is inadequate for most of the uses to which it is put, a flaw that is of particular interest to educational practitioners…
Misuse of statistical tests in Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology publications.
Schatz, Philip; Jay, Kristin A; McComb, Jason; McLaughlin, Jason R
2005-12-01
This article reviews the (mis)use of statistical tests in neuropsychology research studies published in the Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology in the years 1990-1992 and 1996-2000, and 2001-2004, prior to, commensurate with the internet-based and paper-based release, and following the release of the American Psychological Association's Task Force on Statistical Inference. The authors focused on four statistical errors: inappropriate use of null hypothesis tests, inappropriate use of P-values, neglect of effect size, and inflation of Type I error rates. Despite the recommendations of the Task Force on Statistical Inference published in 1999, the present study recorded instances of these statistical errors both pre- and post-APA's report, with only the reporting of effect size increasing after the release of the report. Neuropsychologists involved in empirical research should be better aware of the limitations and boundaries of hypothesis testing as well as the theoretical aspects of research methodology.
Understanding data better with Bayesian and global statistical methods
Press, W H
1996-01-01
To understand their data better, astronomers need to use statistical tools that are more advanced than traditional ``freshman lab'' statistics. As an illustration, the problem of combining apparently incompatible measurements of a quantity is presented from both the traditional, and a more sophisticated Bayesian, perspective. Explicit formulas are given for both treatments. Results are shown for the value of the Hubble Constant, and a 95% confidence interval of 66 < H0 < 82 (km/s/Mpc) is obtained.
Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.
Catherine A Bliss
Full Text Available Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.
New Statistical PDFs: Predictions and Tests up to LHC Energies
Soffer, Jacques
2016-01-01
The quantum statistical parton distributions approach proposed more than one decade ago is revisited by considering a larger set of recent and accurate Deep Inelastic Scattering experimental results. It enables us to improve the description of the data by means of a new determination of the parton distributions. This global next-to-leading order QCD analysis leads to a good description of several structure functions, involving unpolarized parton distributions and helicity distributions, in a broad range of $x$ and $Q^2$ and in terms of a rather small number of free parameters. There are several challenging issues, in particular the behavior of $\\bar d(x) / \\bar u(x)$ at large $x$, a possible large positive gluon helicity distribution, etc.. The predictions of this theoretical approach will be tested for single-jet production and charge asymmetry in $W^{\\pm}$ production in $\\bar p p$ and $p p$ collisions up to LHC energies, using recent data and also for forthcoming experimental results.
The Use of Meta-Analytic Statistical Significance Testing
Polanin, Joshua R.; Pigott, Terri D.
2015-01-01
Meta-analysis multiplicity, the concept of conducting multiple tests of statistical significance within one review, is an underdeveloped literature. We address this issue by considering how Type I errors can impact meta-analytic results, suggest how statistical power may be affected through the use of multiplicity corrections, and propose how…
CUSUM-Based Person-Fit Statistics for Adaptive Testing.
van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.; Meijer, Rob R.
2001-01-01
Proposed person-fit statistics that are designed for use in a computerized adaptive test (CAT) and derived critical values for these statistics using cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedures so that item-score patterns can be classified as fitting or misfitting. Compared nominal Type I errors with empirical Type I errors through simulation studies. (SLD)
BIAZA statistics guidelines: toward a common application of statistical tests for zoo research.
Plowman, Amy B
2008-05-01
Zoo research presents many statistical challenges, mostly arising from the need to work with small sample sizes. Efforts to overcome these often lead to the misuse of statistics including pseudoreplication, inappropriate pooling, assumption violation or excessive Type II errors because of using tests with low power to avoid assumption violation. To tackle these issues and make some general statistical recommendations for zoo researchers, the Research Group of the British and Irish Association of Zoos and Aquariums (BIAZA) conducted a workshop. Participants included zoo-based researchers, university academics with zoo interests and three statistical experts. The result was a BIAZA publication Zoo Research Guidelines: Statistics for Typical Zoo Datasets (Plowman [2006] Zoo research guidelines: statistics for zoo datasets. London: BIAZA), which provides advice for zoo researchers on study design and analysis to ensure appropriate and rigorous use of statistics. The main recommendations are: (1) that many typical zoo investigations should be conducted as single case/small N randomized designs, analyzed with randomization tests, (2) that when comparing complete time budgets across conditions in behavioral studies, G tests and their derivatives are the most appropriate statistical tests and (3) that in studies involving multiple dependent and independent variables there are usually no satisfactory alternatives to traditional parametric tests and, despite some assumption violations, it is better to use these tests with careful interpretation, than to lose information through not testing at all. The BIAZA guidelines were recommended by American Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA) researchers at the AZA Annual Conference in Tampa, FL, September 2006, and are free to download from www.biaza.org.uk.
Statistical analysis of measured global insolation data for Pakistan
Raja, I.A. (Balochistan Univ., Quetta (Pakistan). Dept. of Physics); Twidell, J.W. (Strathclyde Univ., Glasgow (United Kingdom). Energy Studies Unit)
1994-01-01
The global insolation data for up to 15 years from six locations in Pakistan are analysed. In addition to simple arithmetic analysis, tables and figures of cumulative frequency distribution and number of consecutive days above certain threshold insolation values are constructed. Results are presented for monthly and annual periods for practical application when planning solar installation. (author)
Evaluation of Multi-parameter Test Statistics for Multiple Imputation.
Liu, Yu; Enders, Craig K
2017-01-01
In Ordinary Least Square regression, researchers often are interested in knowing whether a set of parameters is different from zero. With complete data, this could be achieved using the gain in prediction test, hierarchical multiple regression, or an omnibus F test. However, in substantive research scenarios, missing data often exist. In the context of multiple imputation, one of the current state-of-art missing data strategies, there are several different analogous multi-parameter tests of the joint significance of a set of parameters, and these multi-parameter test statistics can be referenced to various distributions to make statistical inferences. However, little is known about the performance of these tests, and virtually no research study has compared the Type 1 error rates and statistical power of these tests in scenarios that are typical of behavioral science data (e.g., small to moderate samples, etc.). This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to examine the performance of these multi-parameter test statistics for multiple imputation under a variety of realistic conditions. We provide a number of practical recommendations for substantive researchers based on the simulation results, and illustrate the calculation of these test statistics with an empirical example.
Ganju, Jitendra; Yu, Xinxin; Ma, Guoguang Julie
2013-01-01
Formal inference in randomized clinical trials is based on controlling the type I error rate associated with a single pre-specified statistic. The deficiency of using just one method of analysis is that it depends on assumptions that may not be met. For robust inference, we propose pre-specifying multiple test statistics and relying on the minimum p-value for testing the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. The null hypothesis associated with the various test statistics is that the treatment groups are indistinguishable. The critical value for hypothesis testing comes from permutation distributions. Rejection of the null hypothesis when the smallest p-value is less than the critical value controls the type I error rate at its designated value. Even if one of the candidate test statistics has low power, the adverse effect on the power of the minimum p-value statistic is not much. Its use is illustrated with examples. We conclude that it is better to rely on the minimum p-value rather than a single statistic particularly when that single statistic is the logrank test, because of the cost and complexity of many survival trials.
Statistical Evaluation of Molecular Contamination During Spacecraft Thermal Vacuum Test
Chen, Philip; Hedgeland, Randy; Montoya, Alex; Roman-Velazquez, Juan; Dunn, Jamie; Colony, Joe; Petitto, Joseph
1999-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the statistical molecular contamination data with a goal to improve spacecraft contamination control. The statistical data was generated in typical thermal vacuum tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The magnitude of material outgassing was measured using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCNO device during the test. A solvent rinse sample was taken at the conclusion of each test. Then detailed qualitative and quantitative measurements were obtained through chemical analyses. All data used in this study encompassed numerous spacecraft tests in recent years.
Generalized Correlation Coefficient Based on Log Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic
Liu Hsiang-Chuan
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, I point out that both Joe’s and Ding’s strength statistics can only be used for testing the pair-wise independence, and I propose a novel G-square based strength statistic, called Liu’s generalized correlation coefficient, it can be used to detect and compare the strength of not only the pair-wise independence but also the mutual independence of any multivariate variables. Furthermore, I proved that only Liu’s generalized correlation coefficient is strictly increasing on its number of variables, it is more sensitive and useful than Cramer’s V coefficient, in other words, Liu generalized correlation coefficient is not only the G-square based strength statistic, but also an improved statistic for detecting and comparing the strengths of deferent associations of any two or more sets of multivariate variables, moreover, this new strength statistic can also be tested by G2.
Statistical Inference and Patterns of Inequality in the Global North
Moran, Timothy Patrick
2006-01-01
Cross-national inequality trends have historically been a crucial field of inquiry across the social sciences, and new methodological techniques of statistical inference have recently improved the ability to analyze these trends over time. This paper applies Monte Carlo, bootstrap inference methods to the income surveys of the Luxembourg Income…
Rabinowitz, Daniel
2003-05-01
The focus of this work is the TDT-type and family-based test statistics used for adjusting for potential confounding due to population heterogeneity or misspecified allele frequencies. A variety of heuristics have been used to motivate and derive these statistics, and the statistics have been developed for a variety of analytic goals. There appears to be no general theoretical framework, however, that may be used to evaluate competing approaches. Furthermore, there is no framework to guide the development of efficient TDT-type and family-based methods for analytic goals for which methods have not yet been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical framework that serves both to identify the information which is available to methods that are immune to confounding due to population heterogeneity or misspecified allele frequencies, and to inform the construction of efficient unbiased tests in novel settings. The development relies on the existence of a characterization of the null hypothesis in terms of a completely specified conditional distribution of transmitted genotypes. An important observation is that, with such a characterization, when the conditioning event is unobserved or incomplete, there is statistical information that cannot be exploited by any exact conditional test. The main technical result of this work is an approach to computing test statistics for local alternatives that exploit all of the available statistical information. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing
An, Mark Yuing
1996-01-01
This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...
CUSUM-based person-fit statistics for adaptive testing
Krimpen-Stoop, van Edith M.L.A.; Meijer, Rob R.
2001-01-01
Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be inaccurately estimated. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT), t
Statistical Measures of Integrity in Online Testing: Empirical Study
Wielicki, Tom
2016-01-01
This paper reports on longitudinal study regarding integrity of testing in an online format as used by e-learning platforms. Specifically, this study explains whether online testing, which implies an open book format is compromising integrity of assessment by encouraging cheating among students. Statistical experiment designed for this study…
Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains
Vautard, Robert; Mo, Kingtse C.; Ghil, Michael
1990-01-01
Low-frequency variability of large-scale atmospheric dynamics can be represented schematically by a Markov chain of multiple flow regimes. This Markov chain contains useful information for the long-range forecaster, provided that the statistical significance of the associated transition matrix can be reliably tested. Monte Carlo simulation yields a very reliable significance test for the elements of this matrix. The results of this test agree with previously used empirical formulae when each cluster of maps identified as a distinct flow regime is sufficiently large and when they all contain a comparable number of maps. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable way to test the statistical significance of transitions to and from small clusters. It can determine the most likely transitions, as well as the most unlikely ones, with a prescribed level of statistical significance.
Detection of Invalid Test Scores on Admission Tests : A Simulation Study Using Person-Fit Statistics
Tendeiro, Jorge N.; Meijer, Rob R.; Albers, Casper J.
While an admission test may strongly predict success in university or law school programs for most test takers, there may be some test takers who are mismeasured. To address this issue, a class of statistics called person-fit statistics is used to check the validity of individual test scores.
Vrbos, L A; Lorenz, M A; Peabody, E H; McGregor, M
1993-06-15
An analysis of 300 randomly drawn orthopaedic spine articles, published between 1970 and 1990, was performed to assess the quality of biostatistical testing and research design reported in the literature. Of the 300 articles, 269 dealt with topics of an experimental nature, while 31 documented descriptive studies. Statistical deficiencies were identified in 54.0% of the total articles. Conclusions drawn as the result of misleading significance values occurred in 124 experimental studies (46%) while 96 failed to document the form of analysis chosen (35.7%). Statistical testing was not documented in 34 studies (12.6%), while 20 (7.4%) employed analyses considered inappropriate for the specific design structure.
Model of risk assessment under ballistic statistical tests
Gabrovski, Ivan; Karakaneva, Juliana
The material presents the application of a mathematical method for risk assessment under statistical determination of the ballistic limits of the protection equipment. The authors have implemented a mathematical model based on Pierson's criteria. The software accomplishment of the model allows to evaluate the V50 indicator and to assess the statistical hypothesis' reliability. The results supply the specialists with information about the interval valuations of the probability determined during the testing process.
Simplifying multivariate survival analysis using global score test methodology
Zain, Zakiyah; Aziz, Nazrina; Ahmad, Yuhaniz
2015-12-01
In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve multiple endpoints, and this situation further complicates the analysis of survival data. In the case of tumor patients, endpoints concerning survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For each patient, these endpoints are correlated, and the estimation of the correlation between two score statistics is fundamental in derivation of overall treatment advantage. In this paper, the bivariate survival analysis method using the global score test methodology is extended to multivariate setting.
Distributions of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test statistics.
Rohlfs, R V; Weir, B S
2008-11-01
It is well established that test statistics and P-values derived from discrete data, such as genetic markers, are also discrete. In most genetic applications, the null distribution for a discrete test statistic is approximated with a continuous distribution, but this approximation may not be reasonable. In some cases using the continuous approximation for the expected null distribution may cause truly null test statistics to appear nonnull. We explore the implications of using continuous distributions to approximate the discrete distributions of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test statistics and P-values. We derive exact P-value distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses, enabling a more accurate analysis than is possible with continuous approximations. We apply these methods to biological data and find that using continuous distribution theory with exact tests may underestimate the extent of Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium in a sample. The implications may be most important for the widespread use of whole-genome case-control association studies and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) testing for data quality control.
[Clinical research IV. Relevancy of the statistical test chosen].
Talavera, Juan O; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo
2011-01-01
When we look at the difference between two therapies or the association of a risk factor or prognostic indicator with its outcome, we need to evaluate the accuracy of the result. This assessment is based on a judgment that uses information about the study design and statistical management of the information. This paper specifically mentions the relevance of the statistical test selected. Statistical tests are chosen mainly from two characteristics: the objective of the study and type of variables. The objective can be divided into three test groups: a) those in which you want to show differences between groups or inside a group before and after a maneuver, b) those that seek to show the relationship (correlation) between variables, and c) those that aim to predict an outcome. The types of variables are divided in two: quantitative (continuous and discontinuous) and qualitative (ordinal and dichotomous). For example, if we seek to demonstrate differences in age (quantitative variable) among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with and without neurological disease (two groups), the appropriate test is the "Student t test for independent samples." But if the comparison is about the frequency of females (binomial variable), then the appropriate statistical test is the χ(2).
Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming
Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus
2017-04-01
Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.
On the Correct Use of Statistical Tests: Reply to "Lies, damned lies and statistics (in Geology)"
Sornette, D
2010-01-01
In a recent Forum in EOS entitled "Lies, damned lies and statistics (in Geology)", Vermeesch (2009) claims that "statistical significant is not the same as geological significant", in other words, statistical tests may be misleading. In complete contradiction, we affirm that statistical tests are always informative. We trace the erroneous claim of Vermeesch (2009) to a mistake in the interpretation of the chi-square test. Furthermore, using the same catalog of 118,415 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater and occurring between Friday 1st January 1999 and Thursday, 1 January 2009 (USGS, http://earthquake.usgs.gov), we show that the null hypothesis that "the occurrence of earthquakes does not depend on the day of the week" cannot be rejected (p-value equal to p=0.46), when taking into account the two well-known effects of (i) catalog incompleteness and (ii) aftershock clustering. This corrects the p-value p=4.5 10^{-18} found by P. Vermeesch (2009), whose implementation of the chi-square test assumes that the 1...
688,112 statistical results : Content mining psychology articles for statistical test results
Hartgerink, C.H.J.
2016-01-01
In this data deposit, I describe a dataset that is the result of content mining 167,318 published articles for statistical test results reported according to the standards prescribed by the American Psychological Association (APA). Articles published by the APA, Springer, Sage, and Taylor & Francis
Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza
2010-09-17
It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.
Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health
Martens Pim
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.
Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health
2010-01-01
It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all. PMID:20849605
ROTS: An R package for reproducibility-optimized statistical testing.
Suomi, Tomi; Seyednasrollah, Fatemeh; Jaakkola, Maria K; Faux, Thomas; Elo, Laura L
2017-05-01
Differential expression analysis is one of the most common types of analyses performed on various biological data (e.g. RNA-seq or mass spectrometry proteomics). It is the process that detects features, such as genes or proteins, showing statistically significant differences between the sample groups under comparison. A major challenge in the analysis is the choice of an appropriate test statistic, as different statistics have been shown to perform well in different datasets. To this end, the reproducibility-optimized test statistic (ROTS) adjusts a modified t-statistic according to the inherent properties of the data and provides a ranking of the features based on their statistical evidence for differential expression between two groups. ROTS has already been successfully applied in a range of different studies from transcriptomics to proteomics, showing competitive performance against other state-of-the-art methods. To promote its widespread use, we introduce here a Bioconductor R package for performing ROTS analysis conveniently on different types of omics data. To illustrate the benefits of ROTS in various applications, we present three case studies, involving proteomics and RNA-seq data from public repositories, including both bulk and single cell data. The package is freely available from Bioconductor (https://www.bioconductor.org/packages/ROTS).
Generalized Hypergeometric Ensembles: Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Complex Networks
Casiraghi, Giona; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank
2016-01-01
Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studyin...
Data revisions and the statistical relation of global mean sea-level and temperature
Hillebrand, Eric; Johansen, Søren; Schmith, Torben
We study the stability of the estimated statistical relation of global mean temperature and global mean sea-level with regard to data revisions. Using three different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and forecasts using two different vintages...
Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test
Chang, Mu Seong; Choi, Jong Sik; Choi, Byung Oh; Kim, Do Sik [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-12-15
A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles.
Interactive comparison of hypothesis tests for statistical model checking
de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Reijsbergen, D.P.; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.
2015-01-01
We present a web-based interactive comparison of hypothesis tests as are used in statistical model checking, providing users and tool developers with more insight into their characteristics. Parameters can be modified easily and their influence is visualized in real time; an integrated simulation
The performance of robust test statistics with categorical data
Savalei, V.; Rhemtulla, M.
2013-01-01
This paper reports on a simulation study that evaluated the performance of five structural equation model test statistics appropriate for categorical data. Both Type I error rate and power were investigated. Different model sizes, sample sizes, numbers of categories, and threshold distributions were
The performance of robust test statistics with categorical data
Savalei, V.; Rhemtulla, M.
2013-01-01
This paper reports on a simulation study that evaluated the performance of five structural equation model test statistics appropriate for categorical data. Both Type I error rate and power were investigated. Different model sizes, sample sizes, numbers of categories, and threshold distributions were
Evaluation of the Wishart test statistics for polarimetric SAR data
Skriver, Henning; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut
2003-01-01
A test statistic for equality of two covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution has previously been used in new algorithms for change detection, edge detection and segmentation in polarimetric SAR images. Previously, the results for change detection and edge detection have been...
Equivalence versus classical statistical tests in water quality assessments.
Ngatia, Murage; Gonzalez, David; San Julian, Steve; Conner, Arin
2010-01-01
To evaluate whether two unattended field organic carbon instruments could provide data comparable to laboratory-generated data, we needed a practical assessment. Null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST) is commonly utilized for such evaluations in environmental assessments, but researchers in other disciplines have identified weaknesses that may limit NHST's usefulness. For example, in NHST, large sample sizes change p-values and a statistically significant result can be obtained by merely increasing the sample size. In addition, p-values can indicate that observed results are statistically significantly different, but in reality the differences could be trivial in magnitude. Equivalence tests, on the other hand, allow the investigator to incorporate decision criteria that have practical relevance to the study. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential use of equivalence tests as an alternative to NHST. We first compare data between the two field instruments, and then compare the field instruments' data to laboratory-generated data using both NHST and equivalence tests. NHST indicated that the data between the two field instruments and the data between the field instruments and the laboratory were significantly different. Equivalence tests showed that the data were equivalent because they fell within a pre-determined equivalence interval based on our knowledge of laboratory precision. We conclude that equivalence tests provide more useful comparisons and interpretation of water quality data than NHST and should be more widely used in similar environmental assessments.
Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests.
Cazelles, Bernard; Cazelles, Kévin; Chavez, Mario
2014-02-06
Wavelet analysis is now frequently used to extract information from ecological and epidemiological time series. Statistical hypothesis tests are conducted on associated wavelet quantities to assess the likelihood that they are due to a random process. Such random processes represent null models and are generally based on synthetic data that share some statistical characteristics with the original time series. This allows the comparison of null statistics with those obtained from original time series. When creating synthetic datasets, different techniques of resampling result in different characteristics shared by the synthetic time series. Therefore, it becomes crucial to consider the impact of the resampling method on the results. We have addressed this point by comparing seven different statistical testing methods applied with different real and simulated data. Our results show that statistical assessment of periodic patterns is strongly affected by the choice of the resampling method, so two different resampling techniques could lead to two different conclusions about the same time series. Moreover, our results clearly show the inadequacy of resampling series generated by white noise and red noise that are nevertheless the methods currently used in the wide majority of wavelets applications. Our results highlight that the characteristics of a time series, namely its Fourier spectrum and autocorrelation, are important to consider when choosing the resampling technique. Results suggest that data-driven resampling methods should be used such as the hidden Markov model algorithm and the 'beta-surrogate' method.
Statistical tests for associations between two directed acyclic graphs.
Robert Hoehndorf
Full Text Available Biological data, and particularly annotation data, are increasingly being represented in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs. However, while relevant biological information is implicit in the links between multiple domains, annotations from these different domains are usually represented in distinct, unconnected DAGs, making links between the domains represented difficult to determine. We develop a novel family of general statistical tests for the discovery of strong associations between two directed acyclic graphs. Our method takes the topology of the input graphs and the specificity and relevance of associations between nodes into consideration. We apply our method to the extraction of associations between biomedical ontologies in an extensive use-case. Through a manual and an automatic evaluation, we show that our tests discover biologically relevant relations. The suite of statistical tests we develop for this purpose is implemented and freely available for download.
Mean-squared-displacement statistical test for fractional Brownian motion
Sikora, Grzegorz; Burnecki, Krzysztof; Wyłomańska, Agnieszka
2017-03-01
Anomalous diffusion in crowded fluids, e.g., in cytoplasm of living cells, is a frequent phenomenon. A common tool by which the anomalous diffusion of a single particle can be classified is the time-averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD). A classical mechanism leading to the anomalous diffusion is the fractional Brownian motion (FBM). A validation of such process for single-particle tracking data is of great interest for experimentalists. In this paper we propose a rigorous statistical test for FBM based on TAMSD. To this end we analyze the distribution of the TAMSD statistic, which is given by the generalized chi-squared distribution. Next, we study the power of the test by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the test is very sensitive for changes of the Hurst parameter. Moreover, it can easily distinguish between two models of subdiffusion: FBM and continuous-time random walk.
Fully Bayesian tests of neutrality using genealogical summary statistics
Drummond Alexei J
2008-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many data summary statistics have been developed to detect departures from neutral expectations of evolutionary models. However questions about the neutrality of the evolution of genetic loci within natural populations remain difficult to assess. One critical cause of this difficulty is that most methods for testing neutrality make simplifying assumptions simultaneously about the mutational model and the population size model. Consequentially, rejecting the null hypothesis of neutrality under these methods could result from violations of either or both assumptions, making interpretation troublesome. Results Here we harness posterior predictive simulation to exploit summary statistics of both the data and model parameters to test the goodness-of-fit of standard models of evolution. We apply the method to test the selective neutrality of molecular evolution in non-recombining gene genealogies and we demonstrate the utility of our method on four real data sets, identifying significant departures of neutrality in human influenza A virus, even after controlling for variation in population size. Conclusion Importantly, by employing a full model-based Bayesian analysis, our method separates the effects of demography from the effects of selection. The method also allows multiple summary statistics to be used in concert, thus potentially increasing sensitivity. Furthermore, our method remains useful in situations where analytical expectations and variances of summary statistics are not available. This aspect has great potential for the analysis of temporally spaced data, an expanding area previously ignored for limited availability of theory and methods.
Your Chi-Square Test Is Statistically Significant: Now What?
Donald Sharpe
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Applied researchers have employed chi-square tests for more than one hundred years. This paper addresses the question of how one should follow a statistically significant chi-square test result in order to determine the source of that result. Four approaches were evaluated: calculating residuals, comparing cells, ransacking, and partitioning. Data from two recent journal articles were used to illustrate these approaches. A call is made for greater consideration of foundational techniques such as the chi-square tests.
Asymptotics of Bonferroni for Dependent Normal Test Statistics.
Proschan, Michael A; Shaw, Pamela A
2011-07-01
The Bonferroni adjustment is sometimes used to control the familywise error rate (FWE) when the number of comparisons is huge. In genome wide association studies, researchers compare cases to controls with respect to thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms. It has been claimed that the Bonferroni adjustment is only slightly conservative if the comparisons are nearly independent. We show that the veracity of this claim depends on how one defines "nearly." Specifically, if the test statistics' pairwise correlations converge to 0 as the number of tests tend to ∞, the conservatism of the Bonferroni procedure depends on their rate of convergence. The type I error rate of Bonferroni can tend to 0 or 1 - exp(-α) ≈ α, depending on that rate. We show using elementary probability theory what happens to the distribution of the number of errors when using Bonferroni, as the number of dependent normal test statistics gets large. We also use the limiting behavior of Bonferroni to shed light on properties of other commonly used test statistics.
von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.
2009-04-01
Estimations of future global sea-level rise brought about by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin are based on simulations with coarse-resolution global climate models, which imposes some limitations on the skill of future projections because some of the processes that modulate the heat and fresh water flux into may not be adequately represented. To fill this gap, and until more complex climate models are available, some ad-hoc methods have been proposed that link the rise in global average temperature with the global mean sea-level rise. The statistical methods can be calibrated with observations and applied to the future global temperature rise simulated by climate models. This methods can be tested in the virtual reality simulated by global atmosphere.ocean models. Thereby, deficiencies can be identified and improvement suggested. The output of 1000-year long climate model simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G over the past millennium has been used to determine the skill of different predictors to describe the variations of the rate of sea-level change in the simulation. These predictor variables comprise the global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change with time and the heat-flux into the ocean. It is found that, in the framework of this climate simulation, global mean temperature is not a good predictor for the rate-of-change of sea-level. The correlation between both variables is not stable along the simulations and even its sign changes. A better predictor is the rate-of-change of temperature. Its correlation with the rate-of-change of sea-level is much more stable, it is always positive along the simulation, and there exists a lead-lag relationship between both that can be understood in simple physical terms. The best predictor among those tested is the heat-flux into the ocean. Its correlation is higher and there exists no time lag to the rate-of-change of sea-level, as expected
Statistical testing and distribution for lead chloride toxicity
John H. Lange
2005-01-01
@@ Dear Sir, Graca et al. [1] provided an interesting investigation on the toxicity of lead chloride and sperm development in mice. However, I would like to make a comment on the statistical analysis presented. Table 1 and its results suggest that a comparison of treated (experiment) and control mice were undertaken using the t-test. The authors indicate that they used the t-test along with complementation of ANOVA analysis. It appears that the t-test was used for analysis in Table 1 and ANOVA, as indicated,for Table 2. Use of t-test for comparing three of more groups is not appropriate since this may result in a multiple comparison problem (increasing the type I error rate)[2, 3]. Multiple comparisons can result in the reporting of a P value that is significant (or of lower value) when in actuality it is not. It is better to use, for example, a one-way ANOVA followed by a post-test (post-hoc)which can take into account all comparisons. Other statistical testing can also be employed to control the overall type I error, such as Tukey-HSD (honest significant difference), Scheffe's and Bonferroni-Dunn methods [2].
Shaikh, Masood Ali
2016-04-01
Statistical tests help infer meaningful conclusions from studies conducted and data collected. This descriptive study analyzed the type of statistical tests used and the statistical software utilized for analysis reported in the original articles published in 2014 by the three Medline-indexed journals of Pakistan. Cumulatively, 466 original articles were published in 2014. The most frequently reported statistical tests for original articles by all three journals were bivariate parametric and non-parametric tests i.e. involving comparisons between two groups e.g. Chi-square test, t-test, and various types of correlations. Cumulatively, 201 (43.1%) articles used these tests. SPSS was the primary choice for statistical analysis, as it was exclusively used in 374 (80.3%) original articles. There has been a substantial increase in the number of articles published, and in the sophistication of statistical tests used in the articles published in the Pakistani Medline indexed journals in 2014, compared to 2007.
Software testing and global industry future paradigms
Casey, Valentine; Richardson, Ita
2009-01-01
Today software development has truly become a globally sourced commodity. This trend has been facilitated by the availability of highly skilled software professionals in low cost locations in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Far East. Organisations
Probability and Statistics Questions and Tests : a critical analysis
Fabrizio Maturo
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In probability and statistics courses, a popular method for the evaluation of the students is to assess them using multiple choice tests. The use of these tests allows to evaluate certain types of skills such as fast response, short-term memory, mental clarity and ability to compete. In our opinion, the verification through testing can certainly be useful for the analysis of certain aspects, and to speed up the process of assessment, but we should be aware of the limitations of such a standardized procedure and then exclude that the assessments of pupils, classes and schools can be reduced to processing of test results. To prove this thesis, this article argues in detail the main test limits, presents some recent models which have been proposed in the literature and suggests some alternative valuation methods. Quesiti e test di Probabilità e Statistica: un'analisi critica Nei corsi di Probabilità e Statistica, un metodo molto diffuso per la valutazione degli studenti consiste nel sottoporli a quiz a risposta multipla. L'uso di questi test permette di valutare alcuni tipi di abilità come la rapidità di risposta, la memoria a breve termine, la lucidità mentale e l'attitudine a gareggiare. A nostro parere, la verifica attraverso i test può essere sicuramente utile per l'analisi di alcuni aspetti e per velocizzare il percorso di valutazione ma si deve essere consapevoli dei limiti di una tale procedura standardizzata e quindi escludere che le valutazioni di alunni, classi e scuole possano essere ridotte a elaborazioni di risultati di test. A dimostrazione di questa tesi, questo articolo argomenta in dettaglio i limiti principali dei test, presenta alcuni recenti modelli proposti in letteratura e propone alcuni metodi di valutazione alternativi. Parole Chiave: item responce theory, valutazione, test, probabilità
Laiacona, M; Inzaghi, M G; De Tanti, A; Capitani, E
2000-10-01
The Wisconsin card sorting test and the Weigl test are two neuropsychological tools widely used in clinical practice to assess frontal lobe functions. In this study we present norms useful for Italian subjects aged from 15 to 85 years, with 5-17 years of education. Concerning the Wisconsin card sorting test, a new measure of global efficiency (global score) is proposed as well as norms for some well known qualitative aspects of the performance, i.e. perseverative responses, failure to maintain the set and non-perseverative errors. In setting normative values, we followed a statistical methodology (equivalent scores) employed in Italy for other neuropsychological tests, in order to favour the possibility of comparison among these tests. A correlation study between the global score of the Wisconsin card sorting test and the score on the Weigl test was carried out and it emerges that some cognitive aspects are not overlapping in these two measures.
Teyssèdre Simon
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Spurious associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms and phenotypes are a major issue in genome-wide association studies and have led to underestimation of type 1 error rate and overestimation of the number of quantitative trait loci found. Many authors have investigated the influence of population structure on the robustness of methods by simulation. This paper is aimed at developing further the algebraic formalization of power and type 1 error rate for some of the classical statistical methods used: simple regression, two approximate methods of mixed models involving the effect of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP and a random polygenic effect (GRAMMAR and FASTA and the transmission/disequilibrium test for quantitative traits and nuclear families. Analytical formulae were derived using matrix algebra for the first and second moments of the statistical tests, assuming a true mixed model with a polygenic effect and SNP effects. Results The expectation and variance of the test statistics and their marginal expectations and variances according to the distribution of genotypes and estimators of variance components are given as a function of the relationship matrix and of the heritability of the polygenic effect. These formulae were used to compute type 1 error rate and power for any kind of relationship matrix between phenotyped and genotyped individuals for any level of heritability. For the regression method, type 1 error rate increased with the variability of relationships and with heritability, but decreased with the GRAMMAR method and was not affected with the FASTA and quantitative transmission/disequilibrium test methods. Conclusions The formulae can be easily used to provide the correct threshold of type 1 error rate and to calculate the power when designing experiments or data collection protocols. The results concerning the efficacy of each method agree with simulation results in the literature but were
Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator
Humble, Travis S [ORNL
2014-01-01
The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.
Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator
Humble, Travis S [ORNL
2014-01-01
The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.
Quantum statistical testing of a quantum random number generator
Humble, Travis S.
2014-10-01
The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the operation of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.
Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes.
Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H Eugene
2011-12-01
For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρ(DCCA)(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρ(DCCA)(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1 ≤ ρ(DCCA)(T,n) ≤ 1. Here we derive -1 ≤ ρ DCCA)(T,n) ≤ 1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρ(DCCA) within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine-and for nonoverlapping windows we derive--that the standard deviation of ρ(DCCA)(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρ(DCCA)(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.
Global health business: the production and performativity of statistics in Sierra Leone and Germany.
Erikson, Susan L
2012-01-01
The global push for health statistics and electronic digital health information systems is about more than tracking health incidence and prevalence. It is also experienced on the ground as means to develop and maintain particular norms of health business, knowledge, and decision- and profit-making that are not innocent. Statistics make possible audit and accountability logics that undergird the management of health at a distance and that are increasingly necessary to the business of health. Health statistics are inextricable from their social milieus, yet as business artifacts they operate as if they are freely formed, objectively originated, and accurate. This article explicates health statistics as cultural forms and shows how they have been produced and performed in two very different countries: Sierra Leone and Germany. In both familiar and surprising ways, this article shows how statistics and their pursuit organize and discipline human behavior, constitute subject positions, and reify existing relations of power.
Fast global convergence of gradient methods for high-dimensional statistical recovery
Agarwal, Alekh; Wainwright, Martin J
2011-01-01
Many statistical M-estimators are based on convex optimization problems formed by the combination of a data-dependent loss function with a norm-based regularizer. We analyze the convergence rates of projected gradient methods for solving such problems, working within a high-dimensional framework that allows the data dimension d to grow with (and possibly exceed) the sample size n. This high-dimensional structure precludes the usual global assumptions---namely, strong convexity and smoothness conditions---that underlie much of classical optimization analysis. We define appropriately restricted versions of these conditions, and show that they are satisfied with high probability for various statistical models. Under these conditions, our theory guarantees that projected gradient descent has a globally geometric rate of convergence up to the \\emph{statistical precision} of the model, meaning the typical distance between the true unknown parameter $\\theta^*$ and an optimal solution $\\hat{\\theta}$. This result is s...
Statistical Tests of the PTHA Poisson Assumption for Submarine Landslides
Geist, E. L.; Chaytor, J. D.; Parsons, T.; Ten Brink, U. S.
2012-12-01
We demonstrate that a sequence of dated mass transport deposits (MTDs) can provide information to statistically test whether or not submarine landslides associated with these deposits conform to a Poisson model of occurrence. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) most often assumes Poissonian occurrence for all sources, with an exponential distribution of return times. Using dates that define the bounds of individual MTDs, we first describe likelihood and Monte Carlo methods of parameter estimation for a suite of candidate occurrence models (Poisson, lognormal, gamma, Brownian Passage Time). In addition to age-dating uncertainty, both methods incorporate uncertainty caused by the open time intervals: i.e., before the first and after the last event to the present. Accounting for these open intervals is critical when there are a small number of observed events. The optimal occurrence model is selected according to both the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). In addition, the likelihood ratio test can be performed on occurrence models from the same family: e.g., the gamma model relative to the exponential model of return time distribution. Parameter estimation, model selection, and hypothesis testing are performed on data from two IODP holes in the northern Gulf of Mexico that penetrated a total of 14 MTDs, some of which are correlated between the two holes. Each of these events has been assigned an age based on microfossil zonations and magnetostratigraphic datums. Results from these sites indicate that the Poisson assumption is likely valid. However, parameter estimation results using the likelihood method for one of the sites suggest that the events may have occurred quasi-periodically. Methods developed in this study provide tools with which one can determine both the rate of occurrence and the statistical validity of the Poisson assumption when submarine landslides are included in PTHA.
Hanyuan Zhang; Xuemin Tian; Xiaogang Deng; Lianfang Cai
2015-01-01
Traditional principal component analysis (PCA) is a second-order method and lacks the ability to provide higher-order representations for data variables. Recently, a statistics pattern analysis (SPA) framework has been incor-porated into PCA model to make full use of various statistics of data variables effectively. However, these methods omit the local information, which is also important for process monitoring and fault diagnosis. In this paper, a local and global statistics pattern analysis (LGSPA) method, which integrates SPA framework and locality pre-serving projections within the PCA, is proposed to utilize various statistics and preserve both local and global in-formation in the observed data. For the purpose of fault detection, two monitoring indices are constructed based on the LGSPA model. In order to identify fault variables, an improved reconstruction based contribution (IRBC) plot based on LGSPA model is proposed to locate fault variables. The RBC of various statistics of original process variables to the monitoring indices is calculated with the proposed RBC method. Based on the calculated RBC of process variables' statistics, a new contribution of process variables is built to locate fault variables. The simula-tion results on a simple six-variable system and a continuous stirred tank reactor system demonstrate that the proposed fault diagnosis method can effectively detect fault and distinguish the fault variables from normal variables.
MODIS/Terra Clear Radiance Statistics Indexed to Global Grid 5-Min L2 Swath 10km V006
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Level 2 granule clear-sky radiance (thermal bands) and reflectance (visible bands) statistics are indexed to a global grid map. Separate statistics for day and night...
Testing Result Statistics-Based Rapid Testing Method for Safety-Critical System
Zhi-Yao Deng; Nan Sang
2008-01-01
Safety-critical system (SCS) has highly demand for dependability, which requires plenty of resource to ensure that the system under test (SUT) satisfies the dependability requirement. In this paper, a new SCS rapid testing method is proposed to improve SCS adaptive dependability testing. The result of each test execution is saved in calculation memory unit and evaluated as an algorithm model. Then the least quantity of scenario test case for next test execution will be calculated according to the promised SUT's confidence level. The feedback data are generated to weight controller as the guideline for the further testing. Finally, a compre- hensive experiment study demonstrates that this adaptive testing method can really work in practice. This rapid testing method, testing result statistics-based adaptive control, makes the SCS dependability testing much more effective.
Comparison of Statistical Methods for Detector Testing Programs
Rennie, John Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Abhold, Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-10-14
A typical goal for any detector testing program is to ascertain not only the performance of the detector systems under test, but also the confidence that systems accepted using that testing program’s acceptance criteria will exceed a minimum acceptable performance (which is usually expressed as the minimum acceptable success probability, p). A similar problem often arises in statistics, where we would like to ascertain the fraction, p, of a population of items that possess a property that may take one of two possible values. Typically, the problem is approached by drawing a fixed sample of size n, with the number of items out of n that possess the desired property, x, being termed successes. The sample mean gives an estimate of the population mean p ≈ x/n, although usually it is desirable to accompany such an estimate with a statement concerning the range within which p may fall and the confidence associated with that range. Procedures for establishing such ranges and confidence limits are described in detail by Clopper, Brown, and Agresti for two-sided symmetric confidence intervals.
A test statistic for the affected-sib-set method.
Lange, K
1986-07-01
This paper discusses generalizations of the affected-sib-pair method. First, the requirement that sib identity-by-descent relations be known unambiguously is relaxed by substituting sib identity-by-state relations. This permits affected sibs to be used even when their parents are unavailable for typing. In the limit of an infinite number of marker alleles each of infinitesimal population frequency, the identity-by-state relations coincide with the usual identity-by-descent relations. Second, a weighted pairs test statistic is proposed that covers affected sib sets of size greater than two. These generalizations make the affected-sib-pair method a more powerful technique for detecting departures from independent segregation of disease and marker phenotypes. A sample calculation suggests such a departure for tuberculoid leprosy and the HLA D locus.
A global test for gene-gene interactions based on random matrix theory.
Frost, H Robert; Amos, Christopher I; Moore, Jason H
2016-12-01
Statistical interactions between markers of genetic variation, or gene-gene interactions, are believed to play an important role in the etiology of many multifactorial diseases and other complex phenotypes. Unfortunately, detecting gene-gene interactions is extremely challenging due to the large number of potential interactions and ambiguity regarding marker coding and interaction scale. For many data sets, there is insufficient statistical power to evaluate all candidate gene-gene interactions. In these cases, a global test for gene-gene interactions may be the best option. Global tests have much greater power relative to multiple individual interaction tests and can be used on subsets of the markers as an initial filter prior to testing for specific interactions. In this paper, we describe a novel global test for gene-gene interactions, the global epistasis test (GET), that is based on results from random matrix theory. As we show via simulation studies based on previously proposed models for common diseases including rheumatoid arthritis, type 2 diabetes, and breast cancer, our proposed GET method has superior performance characteristics relative to existing global gene-gene interaction tests. A glaucoma GWAS data set is used to demonstrate the practical utility of the GET method.
A global test for gene‐gene interactions based on random matrix theory
Amos, Christopher I.; Moore, Jason H.
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Statistical interactions between markers of genetic variation, or gene‐gene interactions, are believed to play an important role in the etiology of many multifactorial diseases and other complex phenotypes. Unfortunately, detecting gene‐gene interactions is extremely challenging due to the large number of potential interactions and ambiguity regarding marker coding and interaction scale. For many data sets, there is insufficient statistical power to evaluate all candidate gene‐gene interactions. In these cases, a global test for gene‐gene interactions may be the best option. Global tests have much greater power relative to multiple individual interaction tests and can be used on subsets of the markers as an initial filter prior to testing for specific interactions. In this paper, we describe a novel global test for gene‐gene interactions, the global epistasis test (GET), that is based on results from random matrix theory. As we show via simulation studies based on previously proposed models for common diseases including rheumatoid arthritis, type 2 diabetes, and breast cancer, our proposed GET method has superior performance characteristics relative to existing global gene‐gene interaction tests. A glaucoma GWAS data set is used to demonstrate the practical utility of the GET method. PMID:27386793
A statistical design for testing apomictic diversification through linkage analysis.
Zeng, Yanru; Hou, Wei; Song, Shuang; Feng, Sisi; Shen, Lin; Xia, Guohua; Wu, Rongling
2014-03-01
The capacity of apomixis to generate maternal clones through seed reproduction has made it a useful characteristic for the fixation of heterosis in plant breeding. It has been observed that apomixis displays pronounced intra- and interspecific diversification, but the genetic mechanisms underlying this diversification remains elusive, obstructing the exploitation of this phenomenon in practical breeding programs. By capitalizing on molecular information in mapping populations, we describe and assess a statistical design that deploys linkage analysis to estimate and test the pattern and extent of apomictic differences at various levels from genotypes to species. The design is based on two reciprocal crosses between two individuals each chosen from a hermaphrodite or monoecious species. A multinomial distribution likelihood is constructed by combining marker information from two crosses. The EM algorithm is implemented to estimate the rate of apomixis and test its difference between two plant populations or species as the parents. The design is validated by computer simulation. A real data analysis of two reciprocal crosses between hickory (Carya cathayensis) and pecan (C. illinoensis) demonstrates the utilization and usefulness of the design in practice. The design provides a tool to address fundamental and applied questions related to the evolution and breeding of apomixis.
Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.
Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
2011-12-06
Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios
Testing Result Statistics-Based Rapid Testing Method for Safety-Critical System
Zhi-Yao Deng; Nan Sang
2008-01-01
Safety-critical system (SCS) has highlydemand for dependability, which requires plenty ofresource to ensure that the system under test (SUT)satisfies the dependability requirement. In this paper, anew SCS rapid testing method is proposed to improveSCS adaptive dependability testing. The result of each testexecution is saved in calculation memory unit andevaluated as an algorithm model. Then the least quantityof scenario test case for next test execution will becalculated according to the promised SUT's confidencelevel. The feedback data are generated to weightcontroller as the guideline for the further testing. Finally,a compre- hensive experiment study demonstrates thatthis adaptive testing method can really work in practice.This rapid testing method, testing result statistics-basedadaptive control, makes the SCS dependability testingmuch more effective.
Changes in Wave Climate from a Multi-model Global Statistical projection approach.
Camus, Paula; Menendez, Melisa; Perez, Jorge; Losada, Inigo
2016-04-01
Despite their outstanding relevance in coastal impacts related to climate change (i.e. inundation, global beach erosion), ensemble products of global wave climate projections from the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) described by the IPCC are rather limited. This work shows a global study of changes in wave climate under several scenarios in which a new statistical method is applied. The method is based on the statistical relationship between meteorological conditions over the geographical area of wave generation (predictor) and the resulting wave characteristics for a particular location (predictand). The atmospheric input variables used in the statistical method are sea level pressure anomalies and gradients over the spatial and time scales information characterized by ESTELA maps (Perez et al. 2014). ESTELA provides a characterization of the area of wave influence of any particular ocean location worldwide, which includes contour lines of wave energy and isochrones of travel time in that area. Principal components is then applied over the sea level pressure information of the ESTELA region in order to define a multi-regression statistical model based on several data mining techniques. Once the multi-regression technique is defined and validated from historical information of atmospheric reanalysis (predictor) and wave hindcast (predictand) this method has been applied by using more than 35 Global Climate Models from CMIP5 to estimate changes in several parameters of the sea state (e.g. significant wave height, peak period) at seasonal and annual scale during the last decades of 21st century. The uncertainty of the estimated wave climate changes in the ensemble is also provided and discussed.
Michael F. Wehner
2010-01-01
Full Text Available We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.
Statistical tools for weld defect evaluation in radiographic testing
Nacereddine, N.; Tridi, M. [LTSI, Centre de Recherche en Soudage et Controle, Alger (Algeria); Hamami, L. [Ecole National Polytechnique, Alger (Algeria). Dept. Electronique; Ziou, D. [Sherbrooke Univ., Quebec (Canada). DMI, Faculte des Sciences
2006-07-01
A reliable detection of defects in welded joints is one of the most important tasks in non-destructive testing by radiography, since the human factor still has a decisive influence on the evaluation of defects on the film. An incorrect classification may disapprove a piece in good conditions or approve a piece with discontinuities exceeding the limit established by the applicable standards. The progresses in computer science and the artificial intelligence techniques have allowed the welded joint quality interpretation to be carried out by using pattern recognition tools, making the system of the weld inspection more reliable, reproducible and faster. In this work, we develop and implement algorithms based on statistical approaches for segmentation and classification of the weld defects. Because of the complex nature of the considered images and so that the extracted defect area represents the most accurately possible the real defect, and that the detected defect corresponds as well as possible to its real class, the choice of the algorithms must be very judicious. In order to achieve this, a comparative study of the various segmentation and classification methods was performed to demonstrate the advantages of the ones in comparison with the others giving to the most optimal combinations. (orig.)
Global precedence, spatial frequency channels, and the statistics of natural images.
Hughes, H C; Nozawa, G; Kitterle, F
1996-01-01
that assume the channels are independent. In view of previous work showing that global precedence depends upon the low frequency content of the stimuli, we suggest that low spatial frequencies represent the sine qua non for the dominance of configurational cues in human pattern perception, and that this configurational dominance reflects the microgenesis of visual pattern perception. This general view of the temporal dynamics of visual pattern recognition is discussed, is considered from an evolutionary perspective, and is related to certain statistical regularities in natural scenes. Potential adaptive advantages of an interactive parallel architecture that confers an initial processing advantage to low resolution information are explored.
Statistical Modelling of Global Tectonic Activity and some Physical Consequences of its Results
Konstantin Statnikov
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Based on the analysis of global earthquake data bank for the last thirty years, a global tectonic activity indicator was proposed comprising a weekly globally averaged mean earthquake magnitude value. It was shown that 84% of indicator variability is a harmonic oscillation with a fundamental period of 37.2 years, twice the maximum period in the tidal oscillation spectrum (18.6 years. From this observation, a conclusion was drawn that parametric resonance (PR exists between global tectonic activity and low-frequency tides. The conclusion was also confirmed by the existence of the statistically significant PR response at the second lowest tidal frequency i.e. 182.6 days. It was shown that the global earthquake flow, with a determination factor 93%, is a sum of two Gaussian streams, nearly equally intense, with mean values of 23 and 83 events per week and standard deviations of 9 and 30 events per week, respectively. The Earth periphery to 'mean time interval between earthquakes' ratios in the first and the second flow modes described above match, by the order of magnitude, the sound velocity in the fluid (~1500 m/s and in elastic medium (5500 m/s.
Entrainment of visual steady-state responses is modulated by global spatial statistics.
Nguyen, Thomas; Kuntzelman, Karl; Miskovic, Vladimir
2017-07-01
The rhythmic delivery of visual stimuli evokes large-scale neuronal entrainment in the form of steady-state oscillatory field potentials. The spatiotemporal properties of stimulus drive appear to constrain the relative degrees of neuronal entrainment. Specific frequency ranges, for example, are uniquely suited for enhancing the strength of stimulus-driven brain oscillations. When it comes to the nature of the visual stimulus itself, studies have used a plethora of inputs ranging from spatially unstructured empty fields to simple contrast patterns (checkerboards, gratings, stripes) and complex arrays (human faces, houses, natural scenes). At present, little is known about how the global spatial statistics of the input stimulus influence entrainment of scalp-recorded electrophysiological signals. In this study, we used rhythmic entrainment source separation of scalp EEG to compare stimulus-driven phase alignment for distinct classes of visual inputs, including broadband spatial noise ensembles with varying second-order statistics, natural scenes, and narrowband sine-wave gratings delivered at a constant flicker frequency. The relative magnitude of visual entrainment was modulated by the global properties of the driving stimulus. Entrainment was strongest for pseudo-naturalistic broadband visual noise patterns in which luminance contrast is greatest at low spatial frequencies (a power spectrum slope characterized by 1/ƒ(-2)).NEW & NOTEWORTHY Rhythmically modulated visual stimuli entrain the activity of neuronal populations, but the effect of global stimulus statistics on this entrainment is unknown. We assessed entrainment evoked by 1) visual noise ensembles with different spectral slopes, 2) complex natural scenes, and 3) narrowband sinusoidal gratings. Entrainment was most effective for broadband noise with naturalistic luminance contrast. This reveals some global properties shaping stimulus-driven brain oscillations in the human visual system. Copyright © 2017
Policies of Global English Tests: Test-Takers' Perspectives on the IELTS Retake Policy
Hamid, M. Obaidul
2016-01-01
Globalized English proficiency tests such as the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) are increasingly playing the role of gatekeepers in a globalizing world. Although the use of the IELTS as a "policy tool" for making decisions in the areas of study, work and migration impacts on test-takers' lives and life chances, not…
Statistical tests for taxonomic distinctiveness from observations of monophyly.
Rosenberg, Noah A
2007-02-01
The observation of monophyly for a specified set of genealogical lineages is often used to place the lineages into a distinctive taxonomic entity. However, it is sometimes possible that monophyly of the lineages can occur by chance as an outcome of the random branching of lineages within a single taxon. Thus, especially for small samples, an observation of monophyly for a set of lineages--even if strongly supported statistically--does not necessarily indicate that the lineages are from a distinctive group. Here I develop a test of the null hypothesis that monophyly is a chance outcome of random branching. I also compute the sample size required so that the probability of chance occurrence of monophyly of a specified set of lineages lies below a prescribed tolerance. Under the null model of random branching, the probability that monophyly of the lineages in an index group occurs by chance is substantial if the sample is highly asymmetric, that is, if only a few of the sampled lineages are from the index group, or if only a few lineages are external to the group. If sample sizes are similar inside and outside the group of interest, however, chance occurrence of monophyly can be rejected at stringent significance levels (P < 10(-5)) even for quite small samples (approximately 20 total lineages). For a fixed total sample size, rejection of the null hypothesis of random branching in a single taxon occurs at the most stringent level if samples of nearly equal size inside and outside the index group--with a slightly greater size within the index group--are used. Similar results apply, with smaller sample sizes needed, when reciprocal monophyly of two groups, rather than monophyly of a single group, is of interest. The results suggest minimal sample sizes required for inferences to be made about taxonomic distinctiveness from observations of monophyly.
Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SOME EXPERIMENTAL FATIGUE TESTS RESULTS
Adrian Stere PARIS; Gheorghe AMZA; Claudiu BABIŞ; Dan Niţoi
2012-01-01
The paper details the results of processing the fatigue data experiments to find the regression function. Application software for statistical processing like ANOVA and regression calculi are properly utilized, with emphasis on popular software like MSExcel and CurveExpert
TESTS OF ELLIPTICAL SYMMETRY AND THE ASYMPTOTIC TAIL BEHAVIOR OF THE STATISTICS
JingPing; ZhuLixing
1999-01-01
In this paper, some test statistics Of Kolmogorov type and Cramervon Mises type based on projection pursuit technique are proposed for testing the sphericity problem of a high-dimensional distribution. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived under the null hypothesis. The asymptotic properties of Bootstrap approximation are investigated and the tail behaviors of the statistics are studied.
Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods
Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter
Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...
Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods
Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter
2012-01-01
Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...
Østvand, Lene; Rypdal, Martin
2013-01-01
Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation which can be separated from the background spectral continuum of long-range persistent climate noise. The emphasis in this paper is on the latter notion, and a general scheme is presented for testing a multi-parameter trend model against a null hypothesis which models the observed climate record as an autocorrelated noise. The scheme is employed to the instrumental global sea-surface temperature record and the global land-temperature record. A trend model comprising a linear plus an oscillatory trend with period of approximately 60 yr, and the statistical significance of the trends, are tested against three different null models: first-order autoregressive process, fractional Gaussian noise, and fractional Brownian motion. The linear trend is significant in all cases, but the o...
Decoding Beta-Decay Systematics: A Global Statistical Model for Beta^- Halflives
Costiris, N J; Gernoth, K A; Clark, J W
2008-01-01
Statistical modeling of nuclear data provides a novel approach to nuclear systematics complementary to established theoretical and phenomenological approaches based on quantum theory. Continuing previous studies in which global statistical modeling is pursued within the general framework of machine learning theory, we implement advances in training algorithms designed to improved generalization, in application to the problem of reproducing and predicting the halflives of nuclear ground states that decay 100% by the beta^- mode. More specifically, fully-connected, multilayer feedforward artificial neural network models are developed using the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm together with Bayesian regularization and cross-validation. The predictive performance of models emerging from extensive computer experiments is compared with that of traditional microscopic and phenomenological models as well as with the performance of other learning systems, including earlier neural network models as well as th...
Wilson, Robert M.
2007-01-01
Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.
HIV and Hepatitis Testing: Global Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions.
Easterbrook, Philippa; Johnson, Cheryl; Figueroa, Carmen; Baggaley, Rachel
2016-01-01
HIV infection and viral hepatitis due to HBV and HCV infection are major causes of chronic disease worldwide, and share some common routes of transmission, epidemiology, initial barriers faced in treatment access, and in strategies for a global public health response. Testing and diagnosis of HIV, HBV, and HCV infection is the gateway for access to both care and treatment and prevention services, and crucial for an effective HIV and hepatitis epidemic response. In this review article, we first summarize the common goals and guiding principles in a public health approach to HIV and hepatitis testing. We summarize the impressive global progress in HIV testing scale-up and evolution of approaches, with expansion of provider-initiated testing and counseling in clinical settings (particularly antenatal and tuberculosis clinics), the introduction of more community based testing services, and use of rapid diagnostic tests enabling provision of same-day test results. However, 46% of all people living with HIV are still unaware of their serostatus, and many continue to be diagnosed and start antiretroviral therapy late. As testing and treatment scale-up accelerates for an "treat all" approach, other challenges to address include how to better focus testing and reach those yet undiagnosed and most at risk, especially key populations, men, adolescents, and children. We summarize future directions in HIV testing to speed scale-up and close gaps that are addressed in the WHO 2015 consolidated HIV testing guidelines. In contrast to HIV, action in hepatitis testing and treatment has been fragmented and limited to a few countries, and there remains a large burden of undiagnosed cases globally. We summarize key challenges in the hepatitis testing response, including lack of simple, reliable, and low-cost diagnostic tests, laboratory capacity, and testing facilities; inadequate data to guide country specific hepatitis testing approaches and who to screen; stigmatization and social
Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation
Platnick, Steven E.
2011-01-01
The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.
A simple model to estimate deposition based on a statistical reassessment of global fallout data
Palsson, S.E.; Howard, B.J.; Bergan, T.D.
2013-01-01
Atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons began in 1945 and largely ceased in 1963. Monitoring of the resulting global fallout was carried out globally by the Environmental Measurements Laboratory and the UK Atomic Energy Research Establishment as well as at national level by some countries. A corre......, allowing comparison with time series of activity concentrations for different environmental compartments, which is important for model validation. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.......Atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons began in 1945 and largely ceased in 1963. Monitoring of the resulting global fallout was carried out globally by the Environmental Measurements Laboratory and the UK Atomic Energy Research Establishment as well as at national level by some countries...... relationship has been the outcome of some studies linking wash-out and rain-out coefficients with rain intensity. Our results showed that the precipitation rate was an important parameter, not just the total amount. The simple model presented here allows the recreation of the deposition history at a site...
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SOME EXPERIMENTAL FATIGUE TESTS RESULTS
Adrian Stere PARIS
2012-05-01
Full Text Available The paper details the results of processing the fatigue data experiments to find the regression function. Application software for statistical processing like ANOVA and regression calculi are properly utilized, with emphasis on popular software like MSExcel and CurveExpert
MODIS/Aqua Clear Sky Radiance Statistics Daily L3 Global 25km Equal Area V006
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS daily averaged clear-sky radiance (thermal bands) and reflectance (visible bands) statistics in selected MODIS bands are stored on a global grid map....
Understanding the Sampling Distribution and Its Use in Testing Statistical Significance.
Breunig, Nancy A.
Despite the increasing criticism of statistical significance testing by researchers, particularly in the publication of the 1994 American Psychological Association's style manual, statistical significance test results are still popular in journal articles. For this reason, it remains important to understand the logic of inferential statistics. A…
Coding and classification in drug statistics – From national to global application
Marit Rønning
2009-11-01
Full Text Available SUMMARYThe Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC classification system and the defined daily dose (DDDwas developed in Norway in the early seventies. The creation of the ATC/DDD methodology was animportant basis for presenting drug utilisation statistics in a sensible way. Norway was in 1977 also thefirst country to publish national drug utilisation statistics from wholesalers on an annual basis. Thecombination of these activities in Norway in the seventies made us a pioneer country in the area of drugutilisation research. Over the years, the use of the ATC/DDD methodology has gradually increased incountries outside Norway. Since 1996, the methodology has been recommended by WHO for use ininternational drug utilisation studies. The WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodologyin Oslo handles the maintenance and development of the ATC/DDD system. The Centre is now responsiblefor the global co-ordination. After nearly 30 years of experience with ATC/DDD, the methodologyhas demonstrated its suitability in drug use research. The main challenge in the coming years is toeducate the users worldwide in how to use the methodology properly.
Reply to 'Statistical testing and distribution for lead chloride toxicity'
Maria de Lourdes Pereira; J. Ramalho-Santos
2005-01-01
@@ Dear Sir, We are very grateful for the letter written by Dr Lange,and indeed apologize for the mistakes noted in the wording of our text regarding statistical analysis. This was due to changes carried out while revising the manuscript at the request of reviewers, whom we thank for, pointing out several issues that were actually similar to those noted by Dr. Lange. Unfortunately, we were unable to
Statistical Analysis for Test Papers with Software SPSS
张燕君
2012-01-01
Test paper evaluation is an important work for the management of tests, which results are significant bases for scientific summation of teaching and learning. Taking an English test paper of high students’monthly examination as the object, it focuses on the interpretation of SPSS output concerning item and whole quantitative analysis of papers. By analyzing and evaluating the papers, it can be a feedback for teachers to check the students’progress and adjust their teaching process.
A semiparametric Wald statistic for testing logistic regression models based on case-control data
2008-01-01
We propose a semiparametric Wald statistic to test the validity of logistic regression models based on case-control data. The test statistic is constructed using a semiparametric ROC curve estimator and a nonparametric ROC curve estimator. The statistic has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution and is an alternative to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistic proposed by Qin and Zhang in 1997, the chi-squared-type statistic proposed by Zhang in 1999 and the information matrix test statistic proposed by Zhang in 2001. The statistic is easy to compute in the sense that it requires none of the following methods: using a bootstrap method to find its critical values, partitioning the sample data or inverting a high-dimensional matrix. We present some results on simulation and on analysis of two real examples. Moreover, we discuss how to extend our statistic to a family of statistics and how to construct its Kolmogorov-Smirnov counterpart.
Statistics of sampling for microbiological testing of foodborne pathogens
Despite the many recent advances in protocols for testing for pathogens in foods, a number of challenges still exist. For example, the microbiological safety of food cannot be completely ensured by testing because microorganisms are not evenly distributed throughout the food. Therefore, since it i...
Kotliar, K E; Lanzl, I M
2016-10-01
The use and the understanding of statistics are very important for biomedical research and for the clinical practice. This is particularly true for estimation of the possibilities for different diagnostic and therapy options in the field of glaucoma. The apparent complexity and contraintuitiveness of statistics along with a cautious acceptance by many physicians, might be the cause of conscious and unconscious manipulation with data representation and interpretation. Comprehendable clarification of some typical errors in the handling of medical statistical data. Using two hypothetical examples from glaucoma diagnostics the presentation of the effect of a hypotensive drug and interpretation of the results of a diagnostic test and typical statistical applications and sources of error are analyzed in detail and discussed. Mechanisms of data manipulation and incorrect data interpretation are elucidated. Typical sources of error in the statistical analysis and data presentation are explained. The practical examples analyzed demonstrate the need to understand the basics of statistics and to be able to apply them correctly. The lack of basic knowledge or half-knowledge in medical statistics can lead to misunderstandings, confusion and wrong decisions in medical research and also in clinical practice.
Choosing statistical tests: part 12 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.
du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Röhrig, Bernd; Hommel, Gerhard; Blettner, Maria
2010-05-01
The interpretation of scientific articles often requires an understanding of the methods of inferential statistics. This article informs the reader about frequently used statistical tests and their correct application. The most commonly used statistical tests were identified through a selective literature search on the methodology of medical research publications. These tests are discussed in this article, along with a selection of other standard methods of inferential statistics. Readers who are acquainted not just with descriptive methods, but also with Pearson's chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and Student's t test will be able to interpret a large proportion of medical research articles. Criteria are presented for choosing the proper statistical test to be used out of the most frequently applied tests. An algorithm and a table are provided to facilitate the selection of the appropriate test.
Implications of Satellite Swath Width on Global Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics
Colarco, Peter; Kahn, Ralph; Remer, Lorraine; Levy, Robert; Welton, Ellsworth
2012-01-01
We assess the impact of swath width on the statistics of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieved by satellite as inferred from observations made by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We sub-sample the year 2009 MODIS data from both the Terra and Aqua spacecraft along several candidate swaths of various widths. We find that due to spatial sampling there is an uncertainty of approximately 0.01 in the global, annual mean AOT. The sub-sampled monthly mean gridded AOT are within +/- 0.01 of the full swath AOT about 20% of the time for the narrow swath sub-samples, about 30% of the time for the moderate width sub-samples, and about 45% of the time for the widest swath considered. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions with only a narrow swath view may not sample the true AOT distribution sufficiently to reduce significantly the uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.
Global and local statistics in turbulent convection at low Prandtl numbers
Scheel, Janet D
2016-01-01
Statistical properties of turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection at low Prandtl numbers (Pr), which are typical for liquid metals such as mercury, gallium or liquid sodium, are investigated in high-resolution three-dimensional spectral element simulations in a closed cylindrical cell with an aspect ratio of one and are compared to previous turbulent convection simulations in air. We compare the scaling of global momentum and heat transfer. The scaling exponents are found to be in agreement with experiments. Mean profiles of the root-mean-square velocity as well as the thermal and kinetic energy dissipation rates have growing amplitudes with decreasing Prandtl number which underlies a more vigorous bulk turbulence in the low-Pr regime. The skin-friction coefficient displays a Reynolds-number dependence that is close to that of an isothermal, intermittently turbulent velocity boundary layer. The thermal boundary layer thicknesses are larger as Pr decreases and conversely the velocity boundary layer thicknesses be...
GOSIM: A multi-scale iterative multiple-point statistics algorithm with global optimization
Yang, Liang; Hou, Weisheng; Cui, Chanjie; Cui, Jie
2016-04-01
Most current multiple-point statistics (MPS) algorithms are based on a sequential simulation procedure, during which grid values are updated according to the local data events. Because the realization is updated only once during the sequential process, errors that occur while updating data events cannot be corrected. Error accumulation during simulations decreases the realization quality. Aimed at improving simulation quality, this study presents an MPS algorithm based on global optimization, called GOSIM. An objective function is defined for representing the dissimilarity between a realization and the TI in GOSIM, which is minimized by a multi-scale EM-like iterative method that contains an E-step and M-step in each iteration. The E-step searches for TI patterns that are most similar to the realization and match the conditioning data. A modified PatchMatch algorithm is used to accelerate the search process in E-step. M-step updates the realization based on the most similar patterns found in E-step and matches the global statistics of TI. During categorical data simulation, k-means clustering is used for transforming the obtained continuous realization into a categorical realization. The qualitative and quantitative comparison results of GOSIM, MS-CCSIM and SNESIM suggest that GOSIM has a better pattern reproduction ability for both unconditional and conditional simulations. A sensitivity analysis illustrates that pattern size significantly impacts the time costs and simulation quality. In conditional simulations, the weights of conditioning data should be as small as possible to maintain a good simulation quality. The study shows that big iteration numbers at coarser scales increase simulation quality and small iteration numbers at finer scales significantly save simulation time.
Steffen, J.H.; Ford, E.B.; Rowe, J.F.
2012-01-01
We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify...
The 3DVar Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Impacts in the CPTEC/INPE Global Operational System
de Goncalves, L.
2013-05-01
A Global 3DVar (G3DVar) analysis cycle has become operacional since January 1st, 2013 at the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC - Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos) from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais). The G3DVar, based upon the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system produces every 6 hours analysis for the spectral T299L64 Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM/CPTEC/INPE) that runs at CPTEC/INPE to provide up to 168 hours forecasts. These analyses and forecasts were intercompared against the previous operational data assimilation scheme based on the Physical Space Assimilation System (PSAS) during two case studies for a typical South American summer meteorological system: the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). This work presents the formal implementation of the G3DVar at CPTEC/INPE with a review of the satellite, conventional data and model background configurations along with the major improvements in the model skill when compared with the previous PSAS data assimilation system. Preliminary results show improvements in systematic errors for 850 and 250 hPa temperature, umididty and wind fields in the G3DVar compared to that in PSAS.
Castruccio, Stefano
2015-04-02
One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.
A test on the statistics of derived intensities
de With, G.; Feil, D.
1976-01-01
Variances of X-ray reflexions calculated with the procedure as proposed by McCandlish, Stout & Andrews [Acta Cryst. (1975), A31, 245-249] have been tested against variances determined in an independent way. A satisfying agreement is obtained
The Statistical Assessment of Latent Trait Dimensionality in Psychological Testing
1984-06-01
an upcoming memorial volumn in memory of David Wechsler, (1984). Lamperti, J., Probability, W. A. Benjamin , New York, (1966). Lawley, D.N...Dr. R. Darreli Bock Departissrit ot Education University of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 » * 1 Dr. Robert Erennan • American CoiisgE Testing
Testing the DGP model with gravitational lensing statistics
Zhu, Zong-Hong; Sereno, M.
2008-09-01
Aims: The self-accelerating braneworld model (DGP) appears to provide a simple alternative to the standard ΛCDM cosmology to explain the current cosmic acceleration, which is strongly indicated by measurements of type Ia supernovae, as well as other concordant observations. Methods: We investigate observational constraints on this scenario provided by gravitational-lensing statistics using the Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey (CLASS) lensing sample. Results: We show that a substantial part of the parameter space of the DGP model agrees well with that of radio source gravitational lensing sample. Conclusions: In the flat case, Ω_K=0, the likelihood is maximized, L=L_max, for ΩM = 0.30-0.11+0.19. If we relax the prior on Ω_K, the likelihood peaks at Ω_M,Ωr_c ≃ 0.29, 0.12, slightly in the region of open models. The confidence contours are, however, elongated such that we are unable to discard any of the close, flat or open models.
Global hybrid forest mask: synergy of remote sensing, crowd sourcing and statistics
Shchepashchenko, D.; See, L. M.; Lesiv, M.; Fritz, S.; McCallum, I.; Shvidenko, A.; Kraxner, F.
2013-12-01
Many global and regional forest cover products have recently become available. The most advanced and comprehensive of these include the global land cover datasets (GLC2000, MODIS, GLOBCOVER), MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF), LANDSAT based (e.g. Sexton et al., 2013) and radar based (e.g. Saatchi et al., 2010; Baccini et al., 2012; Santoro et al., 2012) products. However, they often contradict each other and are typically inconsistent with forest statistics. In particular, global land cover datasets contradict each other in many areas, have limited information about forest density and are not consistent with forest statistics. VCF most likely provides the most comprehensive information about forest density with a spatial resolution of 230m during 2000-2010. However when observing VCF dynamics for individual pixels, one can see variation that cannot be explained by forest cover dynamics, but instead by unstable pixel geometry and clouds. Landsat based products also suffer from cloud cover and cannot recognize sparse forest with canopy closure of 30% or less. Space-based radar is free from cloud, but still cannot reliably delineate areas as forest/non forest (Santoro, 2012). We compare all of the above mentioned remote sensing products with a sample of high resolution imagery provided by Google Earth. We have applied the crowd sourcing platform Geo-Wiki (Fritz et al., 2010, 2012) to collect 22K training points where the percentage of forest cover was estimated for a 1km pixel size. We applied the method of geographically weighted regression to calculate the map of probability of forest cover and the map of forest share. This involved the use of the Geo-Wiki training points in combination with the land cover products, MODIS VCF and LANDSAT. The synergy of remote sensing, statistics and crowd sourcing approaches was investigated to better understand the spatial distribution of forests. Both calibrated (using FAO FRA statistics) and non-calibrated ('best guess
EDF Statistics for Testing for the Gamma Distribution, with Applications.
1982-08-13
coordinates and then dividing by the spectral density function , which is assumed known up to some unknown scale factor. This gives rise to scaled...periodogram values, xl , ... ,x, which have an approximate G(Ox,m) distribution function, when the correct spectral density function is used. The unknown...scale parameter 0 can be estimated using the technique of section 2.2 and the z I’s found. A test of the !i correctly specified spectral density function can
Testing the rate isomorphy hypothesis using five statistical methods
Xian-Ju Kuang; Megha N. Parajulee2+,; Pei-Jian Shi; Feng Ge; Fang-Sen Xue
2012-01-01
Organisms are said to be in developmental rate isomorphy when the proportions of developmental stage durations are unaffected by temperature.Comprehensive stage-specific developmental data were generated on the cabbage beetle,Colaphellus bowringi Baly (Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae),at eight temperatures ranging from 16℃ to 30℃ (in 2℃ increments) and five analytical methods were used to test the rate isomorphy hypothesis,including:(i) direct comparison of lower developmental thresholds with standard errors based on the traditional linear equation describing developmental rate as the linear function of temperature; (ii) analysis of covariance to compare the lower developmental thresholds of different stages based on the Ikemoto-Takai linear equation; (iii)testing the significance of the slope item in the regression line of arcsin(√P) versus temperature,where p is the ratio of the developmental duration of a particular developmental stage to the entire pre-imaginal developmental duration for one insect or mite species; (iv)analysis of variance to test for significant differences between the ratios of developmental stage durations to that of pre-imaginal development; and (v) checking whether there is an element less than a given level of significance in the p-value matrix of rotating regression line.The results revealed no significant difference among the lower developmental thresholds or among the aforementioned ratios,and thus convincingly confirmed the rate isomorphy hypothesis.
GROUNDWATER MONITORING: Statistical Methods for Testing Special Background Conditions
Chou, Charissa J.
2004-04-28
This chapter illustrates application of a powerful intra-well testing method referred as the combined Shewhart-CUSUM control chart approach, which can detect abrupt and gradual changes in groundwater parameter concentrations. This method is broadly applicable to groundwater monitoring situations where there is no clearly defined upgradient well or wells, where spatial variability exists in parameter concentrations, or when groundwater flow rate is extremely slow. Procedures for determining the minimum time needed to acquire independent groundwater samples and useful transformations for obtaining normally distributed data are also provided. The control chart method will be insensitive to detect real changes if a preexisting trend is observed in the background data set. A method and a case study describing how a trend observed in a background data set can be removed using a transformation suggested by Gibbons (1994) are presented to illustrate treatment of a preexisting trend.
Testing the dark energy with gravitational lensing statistics
Cao, Shuo; Zhu, Zong-Hong
2012-01-01
We study the redshift distribution of two samples of early-type gravitational lenses, extracted from a larger collection of 122 systems, to constrain the cosmological constant in the LCDM model and the parameters of a set of alternative dark energy models (XCDM, Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati and Ricci dark energy models), under a spatially flat universe. The likelihood is maximized for $\\Omega_\\Lambda= 0.70 \\pm 0.09$ when considering the sample excluding the SLACS systems (known to be biased towards large image-separation lenses) and no-evolution, and $\\Omega_\\Lambda= 0.81\\pm 0.05$ when limiting to gravitational lenses with image separation larger than 2" and no-evolution. In both cases, results accounting for galaxy evolution are consistent within 1$\\sigma$. The present test supports the accelerated expansion, by excluding the null-hypothesis (i.e., $\\Omega_\\Lambda = 0 $) at more than 4$\\sigma$, regardless of the chosen sample and assumptions on the galaxy evolution. A comparison between competitive world models i...
"What If" Analyses: Ways to Interpret Statistical Significance Test Results Using EXCEL or "R"
Ozturk, Elif
2012-01-01
The present paper aims to review two motivations to conduct "what if" analyses using Excel and "R" to understand the statistical significance tests through the sample size context. "What if" analyses can be used to teach students what statistical significance tests really do and in applied research either prospectively to estimate what sample size…
EVALUATION OF A NEW MEAN SCALED AND MOMENT ADJUSTED TEST STATISTIC FOR SEM.
Tong, Xiaoxiao; Bentler, Peter M
2013-01-01
Recently a new mean scaled and skewness adjusted test statistic was developed for evaluating structural equation models in small samples and with potentially nonnormal data, but this statistic has received only limited evaluation. The performance of this statistic is compared to normal theory maximum likelihood and two well-known robust test statistics. A modification to the Satorra-Bentler scaled statistic is developed for the condition that sample size is smaller than degrees of freedom. The behavior of the four test statistics is evaluated with a Monte Carlo confirmatory factor analysis study that varies seven sample sizes and three distributional conditions obtained using Headrick's fifth-order transformation to nonnormality. The new statistic performs badly in most conditions except under the normal distribution. The goodness-of-fit χ(2) test based on maximum-likelihood estimation performed well under normal distributions as well as under a condition of asymptotic robustness. The Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistic performed best overall, while the mean scaled and variance adjusted test statistic outperformed the others at small and moderate sample sizes under certain distributional conditions.
Nonparametric statistical tests for the continuous data: the basic concept and the practical use.
Nahm, Francis Sahngun
2016-02-01
Conventional statistical tests are usually called parametric tests. Parametric tests are used more frequently than nonparametric tests in many medical articles, because most of the medical researchers are familiar with and the statistical software packages strongly support parametric tests. Parametric tests require important assumption; assumption of normality which means that distribution of sample means is normally distributed. However, parametric test can be misleading when this assumption is not satisfied. In this circumstance, nonparametric tests are the alternative methods available, because they do not required the normality assumption. Nonparametric tests are the statistical methods based on signs and ranks. In this article, we will discuss about the basic concepts and practical use of nonparametric tests for the guide to the proper use.
Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability
Monnet Antoine
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on “geological environments”. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance, and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a repartition of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures.
The Effects of Repeated Cooperative Testing in an Introductory Statistics Course.
Giraud, Gerald; Enders, Craig
Cooperative testing seems a logical complement to cooperative learning, but it is counter to traditional testing procedures and is viewed by some as an opportunity for cheating and freeloading on the efforts of other test takers. This study examined the practice of cooperative testing in introductory statistics. Findings indicate that students had…
Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka
2015-01-01
The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.
Transient global amnesia: a complication of incremental exercise testing.
Richardson, R S; Leek, B T; Wagner, P D; Kritchevsky, M
1998-10-01
Incremental exercise testing is routinely used for diagnosis, rehabilitation, health screening, and research. We report the case of a 71-yr-old patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who suffered an episode of transient global amnesia (TGA) several minutes after successfully completing an incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer. TGA, which is known to be precipitated by physical or emotional stress in about one-third of cases, is a transient neurological disorder in which memory impairment is the prominent deficit. TGA has a benign course and requires no treatment although 24-h observation is recommended. Recognition of TGA as a potential complication of incremental graded exercise testing is important to both aid diagnosis of the amnesia and to spare a patient unnecessary evaluation.
J. Sunil Rao
2007-01-01
Full Text Available In gene selection for cancer classifi cation using microarray data, we define an eigenvalue-ratio statistic to measure a gene’s contribution to the joint discriminability when this gene is included into a set of genes. Based on this eigenvalueratio statistic, we define a novel hypothesis testing for gene statistical redundancy and propose two gene selection methods. Simulation studies illustrate the agreement between statistical redundancy testing and gene selection methods. Real data examples show the proposed gene selection methods can select a compact gene subset which can not only be used to build high quality cancer classifiers but also show biological relevance.
Steffen, Jason H.; Ford, Eric B.; Rowe, Jason F.; Fabrycky, Daniel C.; Holman, Matthew J.; Welsh, William F.; Borucki, William J.; Batalha, Natalie M.; Bryson, Steve; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Ciardi, David R.; Jenkins, Jon M.; Kjeldsen, Hans; Koch, David G.; Prsa, Andrej
2012-01-01
We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through Quarter six (Q6) of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the sy...
Xu, Kuan-Man
2006-01-01
A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.
Humane Society International's global campaign to end animal testing.
Seidle, Troy
2013-12-01
The Research & Toxicology Department of Humane Society International (HSI) operates a multifaceted and science-driven global programme aimed at ending the use of animals in toxicity testing and research. The key strategic objectives include: a) ending cosmetics animal testing worldwide, via the multinational Be Cruelty-Free campaign; b) achieving near-term reductions in animal testing requirements through revision of product sector regulations; and c) advancing humane science by exposing failing animal models of human disease and shifting science funding toward human biology-based research and testing tools fit for the 21st century. HSI was instrumental in ensuring the implementation of the March 2013 European sales ban for newly animal-tested cosmetics, in achieving the June 2013 cosmetics animal testing ban in India as well as major cosmetics regulatory policy shifts in China and South Korea, and in securing precedent-setting reductions in in vivo data requirements for pesticides in the EU through the revision of biocides and plant protection product regulations, among others. HSI is currently working to export these life-saving measures to more than a dozen industrial and emerging economies. 2013 FRAME.
Evidence for a Global Sampling Process in Extraction of Summary Statistics of Item Sizes in a Set.
Tokita, Midori; Ueda, Sachiyo; Ishiguchi, Akira
2016-01-01
Several studies have shown that our visual system may construct a "summary statistical representation" over groups of visual objects. Although there is a general understanding that human observers can accurately represent sets of a variety of features, many questions on how summary statistics, such as an average, are computed remain unanswered. This study investigated sampling properties of visual information used by human observers to extract two types of summary statistics of item sets, average and variance. We presented three models of ideal observers to extract the summary statistics: a global sampling model without sampling noise, global sampling model with sampling noise, and limited sampling model. We compared the performance of an ideal observer of each model with that of human observers using statistical efficiency analysis. Results suggest that summary statistics of items in a set may be computed without representing individual items, which makes it possible to discard the limited sampling account. Moreover, the extraction of summary statistics may not necessarily require the representation of individual objects with focused attention when the sets of items are larger than 4.
Rating global magnetosphere model simulations through statistical data-model comparisons
Ridley, A. J.; De Zeeuw, D. L.; Rastätter, L.
2016-10-01
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was created in 2000 to allow researchers to remotely run simulations and explore the results through online tools. Since that time, over 10,000 simulations have been conducted at CCMC through their runs-on-request service. Many of those simulations have been event studies using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the magnetosphere. All of these simulations are available to the general public to explore and utilize. Many of these simulations have had virtual satellites flown through the model to extract the simulation results at the satellite location as a function of time. This study used 662 of these magnetospheric simulations, with a total of 2503 satellite traces, to statistically compare the magnetic field simulated by models to the satellite data. Ratings for each satellite trace were created by comparing the root-mean-square error of the trace with all of the other traces for the given satellite and magnetic field component. The 1-5 ratings, with 5 being the best quality run, are termed "stars." From these star ratings, a few conclusions were made: (1) Simulations tend to have a lower rating for higher levels of activity; (2) there was a clear bias in the Bz component of the simulations at geosynchronous orbit, implying that the models were challenged in simulating the inner magnetospheric dynamics correctly; and (3) the highest performing model included a coupled ring current model, which was about 0.15 stars better on average than the same model without the ring current model coupling.
Testing for phylogenetic signal in biological traits: the ubiquity of cross-product statistics.
Pavoine, Sandrine; Ricotta, Carlo
2013-03-01
To evaluate rates of evolution, to establish tests of correlation between two traits, or to investigate to what degree the phylogeny of a species assemblage is predictive of a trait value so-called tests for phylogenetic signal are used. Being based on different approaches, these tests are generally thought to possess quite different statistical performances. In this article, we show that the Blomberg et al. K and K*, the Abouheif index, the Moran's I, and the Mantel correlation are all based on a cross-product statistic, and are thus all related to each other when they are associated to a permutation test of phylogenetic signal. What changes is only the way phylogenetic and trait similarities (or dissimilarities) among the tips of a phylogeny are computed. The definitions of the phylogenetic and trait-based (dis)similarities among tips thus determines the performance of the tests. We shortly discuss the biological and statistical consequences (in terms of power and type I error of the tests) of the observed relatedness among the statistics that allow tests for phylogenetic signal. Blomberg et al. K* statistic appears as one on the most efficient approaches to test for phylogenetic signal. When branch lengths are not available or not accurate, Abouheif's Cmean statistic is a powerful alternative to K*.
Hsu Li; Helmer Quinta; de Visser Marieke CH; Uitte de Willige Shirley; el Galta Rachid; Houwing-Duistermaat Jeanine J
2007-01-01
Abstract Background: In this paper, we propose a one degree of freedom test for association between a candidate gene and a binary trait. This method is a generalization of Terwilliger's likelihood ratio statistic and is especially powerful for the situation of one associated haplotype. As an alternative to the likelihood ratio statistic, we derive a score statistic, which has a tractable expression. For haplotype analysis, we assume that phase is known. Results: By means of a simulation study...
A semiparametric Wald statistic for testing logistic regression models based on case-control data
WAN ShuWen
2008-01-01
We propose a semiparametric Wald statistic to test the validity of logistic regression models based on case-control data.The test statistic is constructed using a semiparametric ROC curve estimator and a nonparametric ROC curve estimator.The statistic has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution and is an alternative to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistic proposed by Qin and Zhang in 1997,the chi-squared-type statistic proposed by Zhang in 1999 and the information matrix test statistic proposed by Zhang in 2001.The statistic is easy to compute in the sense that it requires none of the following methods:using a bootstrap method to find its critical values,partitioning the sample data or inverting a high-dimensional matrix.We present some results on simulation and on analysis of two real examples.Moreover,we discuss how to extend our statistic to a family of statistics and how to construct its Kolmogorov-Smirnov counterpart.
Mnemonic Aids during Tests: Worthless Frivolity or Effective Tool in Statistics Education?
Larwin, Karen H.; Larwin, David A.; Gorman, Jennifer
2012-01-01
Researchers have explored many pedagogical approaches in an effort to assist students in finding understanding and comfort in required statistics courses. This study investigates the impact of mnemonic aids used during tests on students' statistics course performance in particular. In addition, the present study explores several hypotheses that…
LeMire, Steven D.
2010-01-01
This paper proposes an argument framework for the teaching of null hypothesis statistical testing and its application in support of research. Elements of the Toulmin (1958) model of argument are used to illustrate the use of p values and Type I and Type II error rates in support of claims about statistical parameters and subject matter research…
Selecting the most appropriate inferential statistical test for your quantitative research study.
Bettany-Saltikov, Josette; Whittaker, Victoria Jane
2014-06-01
To discuss the issues and processes relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test. A review of the basic research concepts together with a number of clinical scenarios is used to illustrate this. Quantitative nursing research generally features the use of empirical data which necessitates the selection of both descriptive and statistical tests. Different types of research questions can be answered by different types of research designs, which in turn need to be matched to a specific statistical test(s). Discursive paper. This paper discusses the issues relating to the selection of the most appropriate statistical test and makes some recommendations as to how these might be dealt with. When conducting empirical quantitative studies, a number of key issues need to be considered. Considerations for selecting the most appropriate statistical tests are discussed and flow charts provided to facilitate this process. When nursing clinicians and researchers conduct quantitative research studies, it is crucial that the most appropriate statistical test is selected to enable valid conclusions to be made. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A Third Moment Adjusted Test Statistic for Small Sample Factor Analysis.
Lin, Johnny; Bentler, Peter M
2012-01-01
Goodness of fit testing in factor analysis is based on the assumption that the test statistic is asymptotically chi-square; but this property may not hold in small samples even when the factors and errors are normally distributed in the population. Robust methods such as Browne's asymptotically distribution-free method and Satorra Bentler's mean scaling statistic were developed under the presumption of non-normality in the factors and errors. This paper finds new application to the case where factors and errors are normally distributed in the population but the skewness of the obtained test statistic is still high due to sampling error in the observed indicators. An extension of Satorra Bentler's statistic is proposed that not only scales the mean but also adjusts the degrees of freedom based on the skewness of the obtained test statistic in order to improve its robustness under small samples. A simple simulation study shows that this third moment adjusted statistic asymptotically performs on par with previously proposed methods, and at a very small sample size offers superior Type I error rates under a properly specified model. Data from Mardia, Kent and Bibby's study of students tested for their ability in five content areas that were either open or closed book were used to illustrate the real-world performance of this statistic.
Shirin Iranfar
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Test anxiety is a common phenomenon among students and is one of the problems of educational system. The present study was conducted to investigate the test anxiety in vital statistics course and its association with academic performance of students at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. This study was descriptive-analytical and the study sample included the students studying in nursing and midwifery, paramedicine and health faculties that had taken vital statistics course and were selected through census method. Sarason questionnaire was used to analyze the test anxiety. Data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings indicated no significant correlation between test anxiety and score of vital statistics course.
Statistical Tests for the Reciprocal of a Normal Mean with a Known Coefficient of Variation
Wararit Panichkitkosolkul
2015-01-01
Full Text Available An asymptotic test and an approximate test for the reciprocal of a normal mean with a known coefficient of variation were proposed in this paper. The asymptotic test was based on the expectation and variance of the estimator of the reciprocal of a normal mean. The approximate test used the approximate expectation and variance of the estimator by Taylor series expansion. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the two statistical tests. Simulation results showed that the two proposed tests performed well in terms of empirical type I errors and power. Nevertheless, the approximate test was easier to compute than the asymptotic test.
A statistical test for drainage network recognition using MeanStreamDrop analysis
Corrado Cencetti
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This paper provides a new statistical test to evaluate the threshold of validity for the Mean Stream Drop analysis. In the case of a constant area threshold, the method aims to provide a unique threshold value to extract the drainage network through a statistical test more efficient than those widely used. The proposal starts from the assumption that a minimum threshold value exists suitable for drainage network extraction. Then, the method proceeds with Horton–Strahler ordering of the network and statistically analysing the network geometry. This procedure is repeated for all the threshold values in the set under investigation, using a statistical permutation test, called APTDTM (Adjusted Permutation Test based on the Difference between Trimmed Means. Statistical significance is evaluated by p-values adjusted to account for multiple comparisons. As a final result of the statistical analysis, the right threshold value for the specific basin is identified. Classical procedures are based on a set of two sample t-tests. However, this method relies on the assumptions of normality and homogeneity of variance, which are unlikely to hold in practice. The APTDTM test presented here provides accurate p-values even when the sampling distribution is not close to normal, or there is heteroskedasticity in the data.
STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF FITTING ACCURACY OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS IN IRAN
F. Alidoost
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs are one of the most important data for various applications such as hydrological studies, topography mapping and ortho image generation. There are well-known DEMs of the whole world that represent the terrain's surface at variable resolution and they are also freely available for 99% of the globe. However, it is necessary to assess the quality of the global DEMs for the regional scale applications.These models are evaluated by differencing with other reference DEMs or ground control points (GCPs in order to estimate the quality and accuracy parameters over different land cover types. In this paper, a comparison of ASTER GDEM ver2, SRTM DEM with more than 800 reference GCPs and also with a local elevation model over the area of Iran is presented. This study investigates DEM’s characteristics such as systematic error (bias, vertical accuracy and outliers for DEMs using both the usual (Mean error, Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation and the robust (Median, Normalized Median Absolute Deviation, Sample Quantiles descriptors. Also, the visual assessment tools are used to illustrate the quality of DEMs, such as normalized histograms and Q-Q plots. The results of the study confirmed that there is a negative elevation bias of approximately 5 meters of GDEM ver2. The measured RMSE and NMAD for elevation differences of GDEM-GCPs are 7.1 m and 3.2 m, respectively, while these values for SRTM and GCPs are 9.0 m and 4.4 m. On the other hand, in comparison with the local DEM, GDEM ver2 exhibits the RMSE of about 6.7 m, a little higher than the RMSE of SRTM (5.1 m.The results of height difference classification and other statistical analysis of GDEM ver2-local DEM and SRTM-local DEM reveal that SRTM is slightly more accurate than GDEM ver2. Accordingly, SRTM has no noticeable bias and shift from Local DEM and they have more consistency to each other, while GDEM ver2 has always a negative bias.
Spracklen, D. V.; Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Manktelow, P.; Heintzenberg, J.
2006-09-01
A statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP). We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10-30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the MBL. Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol, with typically 60-90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the observed and modelled particle persistence at Cape Grim in the Southern Ocean, does not
Mischke, Peggy
2013-01-01
for research and policy analysis. An improved understanding of the quality and reliability of Chinese economic and energy data is becoming more important to to understanding global energy markets and future greenhouse gas emissions. China’s national statistical system to track such changes is however still...... developing and, in some instances, energy data remain unavailable in the public domain. This working paper discusses China’s energy and economic statistics in view of identifying suitable indicators to develop a simplified regional energy systems for China from a variety of publicly available data. As China......’s national statistical system continuous to be debated and criticised in terms of data quality, comparability and reliability, an overview of the milestones, status and main issues of China’s energy statistics is given. In a next step, the energy balance format of the International Energy Agency is used...
Average projection type weighted Cramér-von Mises statistics for testing some distributions
CUI; Hengjian(崔恒建)
2002-01-01
This paper addresses the problem of testing goodness-of-fit for several important multivariate distributions: (Ⅰ) Uniform distribution on p-dimensional unit sphere; (Ⅱ) multivariate standard normal distribution; and (Ⅲ) multivariate normal distribution with unknown mean vector and covariance matrix. The average projection type weighted Cramér-yon Mises test statistic as well as estimated and weighted Cramér-von Mises statistics for testing distributions (Ⅰ), (Ⅱ) and (Ⅲ) are constructed via integrating projection direction on the unit sphere, and the asymptotic distributions and the expansions of those test statistics under the null hypothesis are also obtained. Furthermore, the approach of this paper can be applied to testing goodness-of-fit for elliptically contoured distributions.
Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery
2009-01-01
In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...... selection. The Hudson-Kreitman-Aguadé test is the most powerful test for detecting positive selection among the population genetic tests investigated, whereas McDonald-Kreitman test typically has more power to detect negative selection. We discuss our findings in the light of the discordant results obtained...
How well do test case prioritization techniques support statistical fault localization
Tse, TH; Jiang, B.; Zhang, Z; Chen, TY
2009-01-01
In continuous integration, a tight integration of test case prioritization techniques and fault-localization techniques may both expose failures faster and locate faults more effectively. Statistical fault-localization techniques use the execution information collected during testing to locate faults. Executing a small fraction of a prioritized test suite reduces the cost of testing, and yet the subsequent fault localization may suffer. This paper presents the first empirical study to examine...
Weighted pedigree-based statistics for testing the association of rare variants.
Shugart, Yin Yao; Zhu, Yun; Guo, Wei; Xiong, Momiao
2012-11-24
With the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, researchers are now generating a deluge of data on high dimensional genomic variations, whose analysis is likely to reveal rare variants involved in the complex etiology of disease. Standing in the way of such discoveries, however, is the fact that statistics for rare variants are currently designed for use with population-based data. In this paper, we introduce a pedigree-based statistic specifically designed to test for rare variants in family-based data. The additional power of pedigree-based statistics stems from the fact that while rare variants related to diseases or traits of interest occur only infrequently in populations, in families with multiple affected individuals, such variants are enriched. Note that while the proposed statistic can be applied with and without statistical weighting, our simulations show that its power increases when weighting (WSS and VT) are applied. Our working hypothesis was that, since rare variants are concentrated in families with multiple affected individuals, pedigree-based statistics should detect rare variants more powerfully than population-based statistics. To evaluate how well our new pedigree-based statistics perform in association studies, we develop a general framework for sequence-based association studies capable of handling data from pedigrees of various types and also from unrelated individuals. In short, we developed a procedure for transforming population-based statistics into tests for family-based associations. Furthermore, we modify two existing tests, the weighted sum-square test and the variable-threshold test, and apply both to our family-based collapsing methods. We demonstrate that the new family-based tests are more powerful than corresponding population-based test and they generate a reasonable type I error rate.To demonstrate feasibility, we apply the newly developed tests to a pedigree-based GWAS data set from the Framingham Heart
A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure
Paek, Insu
2012-01-01
Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…
CUSUM-Based Person-Fit Statistics for Adaptive Testing. Research Report 99-05.
van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.; Meijer, Rob R.
Item scores that do not fit an assumed item response theory model may cause the latent trait value to be estimated inaccurately. Several person-fit statistics for detecting nonfitting score patterns for paper-and-pencil tests have been proposed. In the context of computerized adaptive tests (CAT), the use of person-fit analysis has hardly been…
The Comparability of the Statistical Characteristics of Test Items Generated by Computer Algorithms.
Meisner, Richard; And Others
This paper presents a study on the generation of mathematics test items using algorithmic methods. The history of this approach is briefly reviewed and is followed by a survey of the research to date on the statistical parallelism of algorithmically generated mathematics items. Results are presented for 8 parallel test forms generated using 16…
White, Desley
2015-01-01
Two practical activities are described, which aim to support critical thinking about statistics as they concern multiple outcomes testing. Formulae are presented in Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, which are used to calculate the inflation of error associated with the quantity of tests performed. This is followed by a decision-making exercise, where…
What Are Null Hypotheses? The Reasoning Linking Scientific and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Lawson, Anton E.
2008-01-01
We should dispense with use of the confusing term "null hypothesis" in educational research reports. To explain why the term should be dropped, the nature of, and relationship between, scientific and statistical hypothesis testing is clarified by explication of (a) the scientific reasoning used by Gregor Mendel in testing specific…
A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure
Paek, Insu
2012-01-01
Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…
Steffen, Jason H.; /Fermilab; Ford, Eric B.; /Florida U.; Rowe, Jason F.; /NASA, Ames /SETI Inst., Mtn. View; Fabrycky, Daniel C.; /Lick Observ.; Holman, Matthew J.; /Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Welsh, William F.; /San Diego State U., Astron. Dept.; Borucki, William J.; /NASA, Ames; Batalha, Natalie M.; /San Jose State U.; Bryson, Steve; /NASA, Ames; Caldwell, Douglas A.; /NASA, Ames /SETI Inst., Mtn. View; Ciardi, David R.; /Caltech /NASA, Ames /SETI Inst., Mtn. View
2012-01-01
We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through Quarter six (Q6) of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.
Steffen, Jason H; Rowe, Jason F; Fabrycky, Daniel C; Holman, Matthew J; Welsh, William F; Borucki, William J; Batalha, Natalie M; Bryson, Steve; Caldwell, Douglas A; Ciardi, David R; Jenkins, Jon M; Kjeldsen, Hans; Koch, David G; Prsa, Andrej; Sanderfer, Dwight T; Seader, Shawn; Twicken, Joseph D
2012-01-01
We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through Quarter six (Q6) of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.
Steffen, Jason H. [Fermilab Center for Particle Astrophysics, P.O. Box 500, MS 127, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Ford, Eric B. [Astronomy Department, University of Florida, 211 Bryant Space Sciences Center, Gainesville, FL 32111 (United States); Rowe, Jason F.; Borucki, William J.; Bryson, Steve; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Jenkins, Jon M.; Koch, David G.; Sanderfer, Dwight T.; Seader, Shawn; Twicken, Joseph D. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [UCO/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Holman, Matthew J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Welsh, William F. [Astronomy Department, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182-1221 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Ciardi, David R. [NASA Exoplanet Science Institute/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Kjeldsen, Hans [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Prsa, Andrej, E-mail: jsteffen@fnal.gov [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Villanova University, 800 East Lancaster Avenue, Villanova, PA 19085 (United States)
2012-09-10
We analyze the deviations of transit times from a linear ephemeris for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) through quarter six of science data. We conduct two statistical tests for all KOIs and a related statistical test for all pairs of KOIs in multi-transiting systems. These tests identify several systems which show potentially interesting transit timing variations (TTVs). Strong TTV systems have been valuable for the confirmation of planets and their mass measurements. Many of the systems identified in this study should prove fruitful for detailed TTV studies.
Improved Test Planning and Analysis Through the Use of Advanced Statistical Methods
Green, Lawrence L.; Maxwell, Katherine A.; Glass, David E.; Vaughn, Wallace L.; Barger, Weston; Cook, Mylan
2016-01-01
The goal of this work is, through computational simulations, to provide statistically-based evidence to convince the testing community that a distributed testing approach is superior to a clustered testing approach for most situations. For clustered testing, numerous, repeated test points are acquired at a limited number of test conditions. For distributed testing, only one or a few test points are requested at many different conditions. The statistical techniques of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methods (RSM) are applied to enable distributed test planning, data analysis and test augmentation. The D-Optimal class of DOE is used to plan an optimally efficient single- and multi-factor test. The resulting simulated test data are analyzed via ANOVA and a parametric model is constructed using RSM. Finally, ANOVA can be used to plan a second round of testing to augment the existing data set with new data points. The use of these techniques is demonstrated through several illustrative examples. To date, many thousands of comparisons have been performed and the results strongly support the conclusion that the distributed testing approach outperforms the clustered testing approach.
Statistical alignment: computational properties, homology testing and goodness-of-fit
Hein, J; Wiuf, Carsten; Møller, Martin
2000-01-01
The model of insertions and deletions in biological sequences, first formulated by Thorne, Kishino, and Felsenstein in 1991 (the TKF91 model), provides a basis for performing alignment within a statistical framework. Here we investigate this model.Firstly, we show how to accelerate the statistical...... likelihood estimate. In addition, the recursions originally presented by Thorne, Kishino and Felsenstein can be simplified. Two proteins, about 1500 amino acids long, can be analysed with this method in less than five seconds on a fast desktop computer, which makes this method practical for actual data...... analysis.Secondly, we propose a new homology test based on this model, where homology means that an ancestor to a sequence pair can be found finitely far back in time. This test has statistical advantages relative to the traditional shuffle test for proteins.Finally, we describe a goodness-of-fit test...
Global test of seismic static stress triggering model
万永革; 吴忠良; 周公威; 黄静; 秦立新
2002-01-01
Seismic static stress triggering model is tested using Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution catalogue of 1976~2000 and concept of (earthquake doublet(. Result shows that seismic static stress triggering effect does exist in the view of global earthquakes, but the effect is very weak. Dividing the earthquakes into thrust focal mechanism, normal focal mechanism, strike-slip focal mechanism, we find that non-strike-slip focal mechanism earthquakes have significant triggering effect, whereas, the triggering effect in strike-slip focal mechanism earthquakes is not obvious. Divided the subsequent events delay time of (earthquake doublet( into 5 classes of t(1, t<1, t(10, t<10, 1(t(10 (t is in unit of d), then seismic static stress triggering effect does not change with delay time in short time period after earthquakes. The research on seismic static stress triggering in different regions of the world indicates that triggering effect is significant in subduction belts. Seismic static stress triggering model is tested by using (earthquake doublets( in China and its adjacent region. The result indicates that seismic static stress triggering effect cannot be observed easily in China and its adjacent region due to the seismic focal mechanism type (most of the earthquakes are strike-slip earthquakes).
Green, John; Wheeler, James R
2013-11-15
Solvents are often used to aid test item preparation in aquatic ecotoxicity experiments. This paper discusses the practical, statistical and regulatory considerations. The selection of the appropriate control (if a solvent is used) for statistical analysis is investigated using a database of 141 responses (endpoints) from 71 experiments. The advantages and disadvantages of basing the statistical analysis of treatment effects to the water control alone, solvent control alone, combined controls, or a conditional strategy of combining controls, when not statistically significantly different, are tested. The latter two approaches are shown to have distinct advantages. It is recommended that this approach continue to be the standard used for regulatory and research aquatic ecotoxicology studies. However, wherever technically feasible a solvent should not be employed or at least the concentration minimized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Statistical tests for differential expression in cDNA microarray experiments
Cui, Xiangqin; Churchill, Gary A.
2003-01-01
Extracting biological information from microarray data requires appropriate statistical methods. The simplest statistical method for detecting differential expression is the t test, which can be used to compare two conditions when there is replication of samples. With more than two conditions, analysis of variance (ANOVA) can be used, and the mixed ANOVA model is a general and powerful approach for microarray experiments with multiple factors and/or several sources of variation.
Price limits and stock market efficiency: Evidence from rolling bicorrelation test statistic
Lim, Kian-Ping [Labuan School of International Business and Finance, Universiti Malaysia Sabah (Malaysia); Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, P.O. Box 1071, Narre Warren, Victoria 3805 (Australia); Brooks, Robert D. [Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, P.O. Box 1071, Narre Warren, Victoria 3805 (Australia)], E-mail: Robert.brooks@buseco.monash.edu.au
2009-05-15
Using the rolling bicorrelation test statistic, the present paper compares the efficiency of stock markets from China, Korea and Taiwan in selected sub-periods with different price limits regimes. The statistical results do not support the claims that restrictive price limits and price limits per se are jeopardizing market efficiency. However, the evidence does not imply that price limits have no effect on the price discovery process but rather suggesting that market efficiency is not merely determined by price limits.
Statistical studies of animal response data from USF toxicity screening test method
Hilado, C. J.; Machado, A. M.
1978-01-01
Statistical examination of animal response data obtained using Procedure B of the USF toxicity screening test method indicates that the data deviate only slightly from a normal or Gaussian distribution. This slight departure from normality is not expected to invalidate conclusions based on theoretical statistics. Comparison of times to staggering, convulsions, collapse, and death as endpoints shows that time to death appears to be the most reliable endpoint because it offers the lowest probability of missed observations and premature judgements.
Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet
2005-01-01
The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented, s......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....
Theory, Methods and Tools for Statistical Testing of Pseudo and Quantum Random Number Generators
Jakobsson, Krister Sune
2014-01-01
Statistical random number testing is a well studied field focusing on pseudo-random number generators, that is to say algorithms that produce random-looking sequences of numbers. These generators tend to have certain kinds of flaws, which have been exploited through rigorous testing. Such testing has led to advancements, and today pseudo random number generators are both very high-speed and produce seemingly random numbers. Recent advancements in quantum physics have opened up new doors, wher...
An Improved Statistical Solution for Global Seismicity by the HIST-ETAS Approach
Chu, A.; Ogata, Y.; Katsura, K.
2010-12-01
For long-term global seismic model fitting, recent work by Chu et al. (2010) applied the spatial-temporal ETAS model (Ogata 1998) and analyzed global data partitioned into tectonic zones based on geophysical characteristics (Bird 2003), and it has shown tremendous improvements of model fitting compared with one overall global model. While the ordinary ETAS model assumes constant parameter values across the complete region analyzed, the hierarchical space-time ETAS model (HIST-ETAS, Ogata 2004) is a newly introduced approach by proposing regional distinctions of the parameters for more accurate seismic prediction. As the HIST-ETAS model has been fit to regional data of Japan (Ogata 2010), our work applies the model to describe global seismicity. Employing the Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) as an assessment method, we compare the MLE results with zone divisions considered to results obtained by an overall global model. Location dependent parameters of the model and Gutenberg-Richter b-values are optimized, and seismological interpretations are discussed.
t-tests, non-parametric tests, and large studies—a paradox of statistical practice?
Fagerland Morten W
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last 30 years, the median sample size of research studies published in high-impact medical journals has increased manyfold, while the use of non-parametric tests has increased at the expense of t-tests. This paper explores this paradoxical practice and illustrates its consequences. Methods A simulation study is used to compare the rejection rates of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW test and the two-sample t-test for increasing sample size. Samples are drawn from skewed distributions with equal means and medians but with a small difference in spread. A hypothetical case study is used for illustration and motivation. Results The WMW test produces, on average, smaller p-values than the t-test. This discrepancy increases with increasing sample size, skewness, and difference in spread. For heavily skewed data, the proportion of p Conclusions Non-parametric tests are most useful for small studies. Using non-parametric tests in large studies may provide answers to the wrong question, thus confusing readers. For studies with a large sample size, t-tests and their corresponding confidence intervals can and should be used even for heavily skewed data.
[Tests of statistical significance in three biomedical journals: a critical review].
Sarria Castro, Madelaine; Silva Ayçaguer, Luis Carlos
2004-05-01
To describe the use of conventional tests of statistical significance and the current trends shown by their use in three biomedical journals read in Spanish-speaking countries. All descriptive or explanatory original articles published in the five-year period of 1996 through 2000 were reviewed in three journals: Revista Cubana de Medicina General Integral [Cuban Journal of Comprehensive General Medicine], Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/Pan American Journal of Public Health, and Medicina Clínica [Clinical Medicine] (which is published in Spain). In the three journals that were reviewed various shortcomings were found in their use of hypothesis tests based on P values and in the limited use of new tools that have been suggested for use in their place: confidence intervals (CIs) and Bayesian inference. The basic findings of our research were: minimal use of CIs, as either a complement to significance tests or as the only statistical tool; mentions of a small sample size as a possible explanation for the lack of statistical significance; a predominant use of rigid alpha values; a lack of uniformity in the presentation of results; and improper reference in the research conclusions to the results of hypothesis tests. Our results indicate the lack of compliance by authors and editors with accepted standards for the use of tests of statistical significance. The findings also highlight that the stagnant use of these tests continues to be a common practice in the scientific literature.
Statistical tests of conditional independence between responses and/or response times on test items
van der Linden, Willem J.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.
2010-01-01
Three plausible assumptions of conditional independence in a hierarchical model for responses and response times on test items are identified. For each of the assumptions, a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of conditional independence against a parametric alternative is derived. The t
Gaviano, Marco; Lera, Daniela; Sergeyev, Yaroslav D
2011-01-01
A procedure for generating non-differentiable, continuously differentiable, and twice continuously differentiable classes of test functions for multiextremal multidimensional box-constrained global optimization and a corresponding package of C subroutines are presented. Each test class consists of 100 functions. Test functions are generated by defining a convex quadratic function systematically distorted by polynomials in order to introduce local minima. To determine a class, the user defines the following parameters: (i) problem dimension, (ii) number of local minima, (iii) value of the global minimum, (iv) radius of the attraction region of the global minimizer, (v) distance from the global minimizer to the vertex of the quadratic function. Then, all other necessary parameters are generated randomly for all 100 functions of the class. Full information about each test function including locations and values of all local minima is supplied to the user. Partial derivatives are also generated where possible.
shahriar Azizi
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Recent years marketing theories has been developed increasingly. This development needs paying attention to variables such as: moderator and mediator for extending marketing research models. Marketing and management researchers need to be informed about the meaning of mediator, moderator and intervening variables and accurate statistical procedures and tests for identification. By understanding the true meaning of mediator, moderator and intervening variables, providing more accurate marketing models that fits real word become easier. In this paper the meanings of those variables were presented and compared. In the next sections of the paper, statistical procedures and tests provided.
A new model test in high energy physics in frequentist and Bayesian statistical formalisms
Kamenshchikov, Andrey
2016-01-01
A problem of a new physical model test given observed experimental data is a typical one for modern experiments of high energy physics (HEP). A solution of the problem may be provided with two alternative statistical formalisms, namely frequentist and Bayesian, which are widely spread in contemporary HEP searches. A characteristic experimental situation is modeled from general considerations and both the approaches are utilized in order to test a new model. The results are juxtaposed, what demonstrates their consistency in this work. An effect of a systematic uncertainty treatment in the statistical analysis is also considered.
A new model test in high energy physics in frequentist and Bayesian statistical formalisms
Kamenshchikov, A.
2017-01-01
A problem of a new physical model test given observed experimental data is a typical one for modern experiments of high energy physics (HEP). A solution of the problem may be provided with two alternative statistical formalisms, namely frequentist and Bayesian, which are widely spread in contemporary HEP searches. A characteristic experimental situation is modeled from general considerations and both the approaches are utilized in order to test a new model. The results are juxtaposed, what demonstrates their consistency in this work. An effect of a systematic uncertainty treatment in the statistical analysis is also considered.
Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods
Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter
Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...
Schneider, Jesper Wiborg
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss and question the use of statistical significance tests in relation to university rankings as recently suggested. We outline the assumptions behind and interpretations of statistical significance tests and relate this to examples from the recent SCImago Institutions Ranking....... By use of statistical power analyses and demonstration of effect sizes, we emphasize that importance of empirical findings lies in “differences that make a difference” and not statistical significance tests per se. Finally we discuss the crucial assumption of randomness and question the presumption...... that randomness is present in the university ranking data. We conclude that the application of statistical significance tests in relation to university rankings, as recently advocated, is problematic and can be misleading....
Homogeneity and change-point detection tests for multivariate data using rank statistics
Lung-Yut-Fong, Alexandre; Cappé, Olivier
2011-01-01
Detecting and locating changes in highly multivariate data is a major concern in several current statistical applications. In this context, the first contribution of the paper is a novel non-parametric two-sample homogeneity test for multivariate data based on the well-known Wilcoxon rank statistic. The proposed two-sample homogeneity test statistic can be extended to deal with ordinal or censored data as well as to test for the homogeneity of more than two samples. The second contribution of the paper concerns the use of the proposed test statistic to perform retrospective change-point analysis. It is first shown that the approach is computationally feasible even when looking for a large number of change-points thanks to the use of dynamic programming. Computable asymptotic $p$-values for the test are then provided in the case where a single potential change-point is to be detected. Compared to available alternatives, the proposed approach appears to be very reliable and robust. This is particularly true in ...
Chaeyoung Lee
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Epistasis that may explain a large portion of the phenotypic variation for complex economic traits of animals has been ignored in many genetic association studies. A Baysian method was introduced to draw inferences about multilocus genotypic effects based on their marginal posterior distributions by a Gibbs sampler. A simulation study was conducted to provide statistical powers under various unbalanced designs by using this method. Data were simulated by combined designs of number of loci, within genotype variance, and sample size in unbalanced designs with or without null combined genotype cells. Mean empirical statistical power was estimated for testing posterior mean estimate of combined genotype effect. A practical example for obtaining empirical statistical power estimates with a given sample size was provided under unbalanced designs. The empirical statistical powers would be useful for determining an optimal design when interactive associations of multiple loci with complex phenotypes were examined.
Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schou, Jesper;
2003-01-01
. Based on this distribution, a test statistic for equality of two such matrices and an associated asymptotic probability for obtaining a smaller value of the test statistic are derived and applied successfully to change detection in polarimetric SAR data. In a case study, EMISAR L-band data from April 17...... to HH, VV, or HV data alone, the derived test statistic reduces to the well-known gamma likelihood-ratio test statistic. The derived test statistic and the associated significance value can be applied as a line or edge detector in fully polarimetric SAR data also....
Statistical Tests for the Gaussian Nature of Primordial Fluctuations Through CBR Experiments
Luo, X
1994-01-01
Information about the physical processes that generate the primordial fluctuations in the early universe can be gained by testing the Gaussian nature of the fluctuations through cosmic microwave background radiation (CBR) temperature anisotropy experiments. One of the crucial aspects of density perturbations that are produced by the standard inflation scenario is that they are Gaussian, whereas seeds produced by topological defects left over from an early cosmic phase transition tend to be non-Gaussian. To carry out this test, sophisticated statistical tools are required. In this paper, we will discuss several such statistical tools, including multivariant skewness and kurtosis, Euler-Poincare characteristics, the three point temperature correlation function, and the Hotelling's $T^{2}$ statistic defined through bispectral estimates of a one dimensional dataset. The effect of noise present in the current data is discussed in detail and the COBE 53 GHz dataset is analyzed. Our analysis shows that, on the large...
Ingber, L
1998-01-01
A series of papers has developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI), deriving aggregate behavior of experimentally observed columns of neurons from statistical electrical-chemical properties of synaptic interactions. While not useful to yield insights at the single neuron level, SMNI has demonstrated its capability in describing large-scale properties of short-term memory and electroencephalographic (EEG) systematics. The necessity of including nonlinear and stochastic structures in this development has been stressed. Sets of EEG and evoked potential data were fit, collected to investigate genetic predispositions to alcoholism and to extract brain signatures of short-term memory. Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), a global optimization algorithm, was used to perform maximum likelihood fits of Lagrangians defined by path integrals of multivariate conditional probabilities. Canonical momenta indicators (CMI) are thereby derived for individual's EEG data. The CMI give better signal recog...
Cho, Su Gil; Jang, Jun Yong; Kim, Ji Hoon; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Min Uk [Romax Technology Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Jong Su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-04-15
Sequential surrogate model-based global optimization algorithms, such as super-EGO, have been developed to increase the efficiency of commonly used global optimization technique as well as to ensure the accuracy of optimization. However, earlier studies have drawbacks because there are three phases in the optimization loop and empirical parameters. We propose a united sampling criterion to simplify the algorithm and to achieve the global optimum of problems with constraints without any empirical parameters. It is able to select the points located in a feasible region with high model uncertainty as well as the points along the boundary of constraint at the lowest objective value. The mean squared error determines which criterion is more dominant among the infill sampling criterion and boundary sampling criterion. Also, the method guarantees the accuracy of the surrogate model because the sample points are not located within extremely small regions like super-EGO. The performance of the proposed method, such as the solvability of a problem, convergence properties, and efficiency, are validated through nonlinear numerical examples with disconnected feasible regions.
An Algorithm to Improve Test Answer Copying Detection Using the Omega Statistic
Maeda, Hotaka; Zhang, Bo
2017-01-01
The omega (?) statistic is reputed to be one of the best indices for detecting answer copying on multiple choice tests, but its performance relies on the accurate estimation of copier ability, which is challenging because responses from the copiers may have been contaminated. We propose an algorithm that aims to identify and delete the suspected…
Statistical methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests
Sotaridona, Leonardo Sitchirita
2003-01-01
This thesis contains a collection of studies where statistical methods for the detection of answer copying on achievement tests in multiple-choice format are proposed and investigated. Although all methods are suited to detect answer copying, each method is designed to address specific characteristi
Interpreting Statistical Significance Test Results: A Proposed New "What If" Method.
Kieffer, Kevin M.; Thompson, Bruce
As the 1994 publication manual of the American Psychological Association emphasized, "p" values are affected by sample size. As a result, it can be helpful to interpret the results of statistical significant tests in a sample size context by conducting so-called "what if" analyses. However, these methods can be inaccurate…
Recent Literature on Whether Statistical Significance Tests Should or Should Not Be Banned.
Deegear, James
This paper summarizes the literature regarding statistical significant testing with an emphasis on recent literature in various discipline and literature exploring why researchers have demonstrably failed to be influenced by the American Psychological Association publication manual's encouragement to report effect sizes. Also considered are…
Bettonvil, B.W.M.; Del Castillo, E.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2007-01-01
This paper studies simulation-based optimization with multiple outputs. It assumes that the simulation model has one random objective function and must satisfy given constraints on the other random outputs. It presents a statistical procedure for test- ing whether a specific input combination
Bettonvil, B.W.M.; Del Castillo, E.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2007-01-01
This paper studies simulation-based optimization with multiple outputs. It assumes that the simulation model has one random objective function and must satisfy given constraints on the other random outputs. It presents a statistical procedure for test- ing whether a specific input combination (propo
Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo
2007-01-01
The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...
Connecting Science and Mathematics: The Nature of Scientific and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Lawson, Anton E.; Oehrtman, Michael; Jensen, Jamie
2008-01-01
Confusion persists concerning the roles played by scientific hypotheses and predictions in doing science. This confusion extends to the nature of scientific and statistical hypothesis testing. The present paper utilizes the "If/and/then/Therefore" pattern of hypothetico-deductive (HD) reasoning to explicate the nature of both scientific and…
NONE
2009-08-15
This comprehensive report made by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the statistics on total energy production and usage in Switzerland for the year 2008. First of all, an overview of Switzerland's energy consumption in 2008 is presented. Details are noted of the proportions of consumption of oil-fuels for heating, oil products for mobility, electricity, gas and various other fuels. The development of consumption over the years 1910 to 2008 is illustrated graphically. A second chapter takes a look at energy flow from production (and import) to the consumer and export. An extensive collection of illustrative flow diagrams, tables and graphical representations of energy flows, statistics for various energy carriers and of the various uses of energy in Switzerland is presented.
Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach
Messager, Mathis Loïc; Lehner, Bernhard; Grill, Günther; Nedeva, Irena; Schmitt, Oliver
2016-12-01
Lakes are key components of biogeochemical and ecological processes, thus knowledge about their distribution, volume and residence time is crucial in understanding their properties and interactions within the Earth system. However, global information is scarce and inconsistent across spatial scales and regions. Here we develop a geo-statistical model to estimate the volume of global lakes with a surface area of at least 10 ha based on the surrounding terrain information. Our spatially resolved database shows 1.42 million individual polygons of natural lakes with a total surface area of 2.67 × 106 km2 (1.8% of global land area), a total shoreline length of 7.2 × 106 km (about four times longer than the world's ocean coastline) and a total volume of 181.9 × 103 km3 (0.8% of total global non-frozen terrestrial water stocks). We also compute mean and median hydraulic residence times for all lakes to be 1,834 days and 456 days, respectively.
Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)
2011-11-15
In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)
Reproducibility-optimized test statistic for ranking genes in microarray studies.
Elo, Laura L; Filén, Sanna; Lahesmaa, Riitta; Aittokallio, Tero
2008-01-01
A principal goal of microarray studies is to identify the genes showing differential expression under distinct conditions. In such studies, the selection of an optimal test statistic is a crucial challenge, which depends on the type and amount of data under analysis. While previous studies on simulated or spike-in datasets do not provide practical guidance on how to choose the best method for a given real dataset, we introduce an enhanced reproducibility-optimization procedure, which enables the selection of a suitable gene- anking statistic directly from the data. In comparison with existing ranking methods, the reproducibilityoptimized statistic shows good performance consistently under various simulated conditions and on Affymetrix spike-in dataset. Further, the feasibility of the novel statistic is confirmed in a practical research setting using data from an in-house cDNA microarray study of asthma-related gene expression changes. These results suggest that the procedure facilitates the selection of an appropriate test statistic for a given dataset without relying on a priori assumptions, which may bias the findings and their interpretation. Moreover, the general reproducibilityoptimization procedure is not limited to detecting differential expression only but could be extended to a wide range of other applications as well.
Algeri, Sara; van Dyk, David A; Anderson, Brandon
2016-01-01
The search for new significant peaks over a energy spectrum often involves a statistical multiple hypothesis testing problem. Separate tests of hypothesis are conducted at different locations producing an ensemble of local p-values, the smallest of which is reported as evidence for the new resonance. Unfortunately, controlling the false detection rate (type I error rate) of such procedures may lead to excessively stringent acceptance criteria. In the recent physics literature, two promising statistical tools have been proposed to overcome these limitations. In 2005, a method to "find needles in haystacks" was introduced by Pilla et al. [1], and a second method was later proposed by Gross and Vitells [2] in the context of the "look elsewhere effect" and trial factors. We show that, for relatively small sample sizes, the former leads to an artificial inflation of statistical power that stems from an increase in the false detection rate, whereas the two methods exhibit similar performance for large sample sizes....
Direct Numerical Test of the Statistical Mechanical Theory of Hydrophobic Interactions
Chaudhari, M I; Ashbaugh, H S; Pratt, L R
2013-01-01
This work tests the statistical mechanical theory of hydrophobic interactions, isolates consequences of excluded volume interactions, and obtains B2 for those purposes. Cavity methods that are particularly appropriate for study of hydrophobic interactions between atomic-size hard spheres in liquid water are developed and applied to test aspects of the Pratt-Chandler (PC) theory that have not been tested. Contact hydrophobic interactions between Ar-size hard-spheres in water are significantly more attractive than predicted by the PC theory. The corresponding results for the osmotic second virial coefficient are attractive (B2 <0), and more attractive with increasing temperature (Delta B2/Delta T < 0) in the temperature range 300K < T < 360K. This information has not been available previously, but is essential for development of the molecular-scale statistical mechanical theory of hydrophobic interactions, particularly for better definition of the role of attractive intermolecular interactions assoc...
Boonstra, Philip S; Gruber, Stephen B; Raymond, Victoria M
2010-01-01
, and this right truncation effect is more pronounced in children than in parents. In this study, we first review different statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation in affected parent-child pairs that address the issue of bias due to right truncation. Using affected parent-child pair data, we compare......Anticipation, manifested through decreasing age of onset or increased severity in successive generations, has been noted in several genetic diseases. Statistical methods for genetic anticipation range from a simple use of the paired t-test for age of onset restricted to affected parent-child pairs...... to a recently proposed random effects model which includes extended pedigree data and unaffected family members [Larsen et al., 2009]. A naive use of the paired t-test is biased for the simple reason that age of onset has to be less than the age at ascertainment (interview) for both affected parent and child...
Boonstra, Philip S; Gruber, Stephen B; Raymond, Victoria M
2010-01-01
Anticipation, manifested through decreasing age of onset or increased severity in successive generations, has been noted in several genetic diseases. Statistical methods for genetic anticipation range from a simple use of the paired t-test for age of onset restricted to affected parent-child pairs......, and this right truncation effect is more pronounced in children than in parents. In this study, we first review different statistical methods for testing genetic anticipation in affected parent-child pairs that address the issue of bias due to right truncation. Using affected parent-child pair data, we compare...... to a recently proposed random effects model which includes extended pedigree data and unaffected family members [Larsen et al., 2009]. A naive use of the paired t-test is biased for the simple reason that age of onset has to be less than the age at ascertainment (interview) for both affected parent and child...
Vexler, Albert; Kim, Young Min; Yu, Jihnhee; Lazar, Nicole A; Hutson, Aland
2014-12-01
Various exact tests for statistical inference are available for powerful and accurate decision rules provided that corresponding critical values are tabulated or evaluated via Monte Carlo methods. This article introduces a novel hybrid method for computing p-values of exact tests by combining Monte Carlo simulations and statistical tables generated a priori. To use the data from Monte Carlo generations and tabulated critical values jointly, we employ kernel density estimation within Bayesian-type procedures. The p-values are linked to the posterior means of quantiles. In this framework, we present relevant information from the Monte Carlo experiments via likelihood-type functions, whereas tabulated critical values are used to reflect prior distributions. The local maximum likelihood technique is employed to compute functional forms of prior distributions from statistical tables. Empirical likelihood functions are proposed to replace parametric likelihood functions within the structure of the posterior mean calculations to provide a Bayesian-type procedure with a distribution-free set of assumptions. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed nonparametric posterior means of quantiles process. Using the theoretical propositions, we calculate the minimum number of needed Monte Carlo resamples for desired level of accuracy on the basis of distances between actual data characteristics (e.g. sample sizes) and characteristics of data used to present corresponding critical values in a table. The proposed approach makes practical applications of exact tests simple and rapid. Implementations of the proposed technique are easily carried out via the recently developed STATA and R statistical packages.
Rudd, James; Moore, Jason H; Urbanowicz, Ryan J
2013-11-01
Permutation-based statistics for evaluating the significance of class prediction, predictive attributes, and patterns of association have only appeared within the learning classifier system (LCS) literature since 2012. While still not widely utilized by the LCS research community, formal evaluations of test statistic confidence are imperative to large and complex real world applications such as genetic epidemiology where it is standard practice to quantify the likelihood that a seemingly meaningful statistic could have been obtained purely by chance. LCS algorithms are relatively computationally expensive on their own. The compounding requirements for generating permutation-based statistics may be a limiting factor for some researchers interested in applying LCS algorithms to real world problems. Technology has made LCS parallelization strategies more accessible and thus more popular in recent years. In the present study we examine the benefits of externally parallelizing a series of independent LCS runs such that permutation testing with cross validation becomes more feasible to complete on a single multi-core workstation. We test our python implementation of this strategy in the context of a simulated complex genetic epidemiological data mining problem. Our evaluations indicate that as long as the number of concurrent processes does not exceed the number of CPU cores, the speedup achieved is approximately linear.
Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo
2007-01-01
The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...
A Test by Any Other Name: P Values, Bayes Factors, and Statistical Inference.
Stern, Hal S
2016-01-01
Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.
Statistical power analysis a simple and general model for traditional and modern hypothesis tests
Murphy, Kevin R; Wolach, Allen
2014-01-01
Noted for its accessible approach, this text applies the latest approaches of power analysis to both null hypothesis and minimum-effect testing using the same basic unified model. Through the use of a few simple procedures and examples, the authors show readers with little expertise in statistical analysis how to obtain the values needed to carry out the power analysis for their research. Illustrations of how these analyses work and how they can be used to choose the appropriate criterion for defining statistically significant outcomes are sprinkled throughout. The book presents a simple and g
Halpin, Peter F; Stam, Henderikus J
2006-01-01
The application of statistical testing in psychological research over the period of 1940-1960 is examined in order to address psychologists' reconciliation of the extant controversy between the Fisher and Neyman-Pearson approaches. Textbooks of psychological statistics and the psychological journal literature are reviewed to examine the presence of what Gigerenzer (1993) called a hybrid model of statistical testing. Such a model is present in the textbooks, although the mathematically incomplete character of this model precludes the appearance of a similarly hybridized approach to statistical testing in the research literature. The implications of this hybrid model for psychological research and the statistical testing controversy are discussed.
NONE
2006-07-01
This comprehensive report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2005. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The report also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2005 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Also, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable forms of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power. The third chapter provides data on the individual energy carriers and the final chapter looks at economical and ecological aspects. An appendix provides information on the methodology used in collecting the statistics and on data available in the Swiss cantons.
NONE
2007-07-01
This comprehensive report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2006. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The report also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2006 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Also, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable forms of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power. The third chapter provides data on the individual energy carriers and the final chapter looks at economical and ecological aspects. An appendix provides information on the methodology used in collecting the statistics and on data available in the Swiss cantons.
NONE
2003-07-01
This comprehensive report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2002. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The report also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2002 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Also, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable forms of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power. The third chapter provides data on the individual energy carriers and the final chapter looks at economical and ecological aspects. An appendix provides information on the methodology used in collecting the statistics and on data available in the Swiss cantons.
NONE
2004-07-01
This comprehensive report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2003. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The report also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2003 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Also, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable forms of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power. The third chapter provides data on the individual energy carriers and the final chapter looks at economical and ecological aspects. An appendix provides information on the methodology used in collecting the statistics and on data available in the Swiss cantons.
NONE
2005-07-01
This comprehensive report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2004. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The report also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2004 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Also, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable forms of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power. The third chapter provides data on the individual energy carriers and the final chapter looks at economical and ecological aspects. An appendix provides information on the methodology used in collecting the statistics and on data available in the Swiss cantons.
Escalante, Agustín; Haas, Roy W; del Rincón, Inmaculada
2004-01-01
Outcome assessment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) includes measurement of physical function. We derived a scale to quantify global physical function in RA, using three performance-based rheumatology function tests (RFTs). We measured grip strength, walking velocity, and shirt button speed in consecutive RA patients attending scheduled appointments at six rheumatology clinics, repeating these measurements after a median interval of 1 year. We extracted the underlying latent variable using principal component factor analysis. We used the Bayesian information criterion to assess the global physical function scale's cross-sectional fit to criterion standards. The criteria were joint tenderness, swelling, and deformity, pain, physical disability, current work status, and vital status at 6 years after study enrolment. We computed Guyatt's responsiveness statistic for improvement according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) definition. Baseline functional performance data were available for 777 patients, and follow-up data were available for 681. Mean ± standard deviation for each RFT at baseline were: grip strength, 14 ± 10 kg; walking velocity, 194 ± 82 ft/min; and shirt button speed, 7.1 ± 3.8 buttons/min. Grip strength and walking velocity departed significantly from normality. The three RFTs loaded strongly on a single factor that explained ≥70% of their combined variance. We rescaled the factor to vary from 0 to 100. Its mean ± standard deviation was 41 ± 20, with a normal distribution. The new global scale had a stronger fit than the primary RFT to most of the criterion standards. It correlated more strongly with physical disability at follow-up and was more responsive to improvement defined according to the ACR20 and ACR50 definitions. We conclude that a performance-based physical function scale extracted from three RFTs has acceptable distributional and measurement properties and is responsive to clinically meaningful change. It
On the statistical nature of distinct cycles in global warming variables
Seip, Knut Lehre; Grøn, Øyvind
2017-01-01
Cycle times found in many oceanic time series have been explained with references to external mechanisms that act on the systems. Here we show that when we extract cycle times from 100 sets of paired random series, we find six distinct clusters of common cycle times ranging from about 3 years to about 32 years. Cycle times, CT, get shorter when one series in a pair is an increasingly stronger leading series to the other, CT ≈ -(minus) LL-strength. This may explain the frequent finding that many global warming time series, e.g., the Southern oscillation index and the Pacific decadal oscillation, show distinct cycle times (Power spectral analysis: 3-5, 7-8, 13-15, 22-24, and 29-30 years). An important implication of these findings is that processes that strengthen the impact of one ocean variable on another may cause more frequent adverse climate conditions.
Global Environmental Micro Sensors Test Operations in the Natural Environment
Adams, Mark L.; Buza, Matthew; Manobianco, John; Merceret, Francis J.
2007-01-01
ENSCO, Inc. is developing an innovative atmospheric observing system known as Global Environmental Micro Sensors (GEMS). The GEMS concept features an integrated system of miniaturized in situ, airborne probes measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and vector wind velocity. In order for the probes to remain airborne for long periods of time, their design is based on a helium-filled super-pressure balloon. The GEMS probes are neutrally buoyant and carried passively by the wind at predetermined levels. Each probe contains onboard satellite communication, power generation, processing, and geolocation capabilities. ENSCO has partnered with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for a project called GEMS Test Operations in the Natural Environment (GEMSTONE) that will culminate with limited prototype flights of the system in spring 2007. By leveraging current advances in micro and nanotechnology, the probe mass, size, cost, and complexity can be reduced substantially so that large numbers of probes could be deployed routinely to support ground, launch, and landing operations at KSC and other locations. A full-scale system will improve the data density for the local initialization of high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems by at least an order of magnitude and provide a significantly expanded in situ data base to evaluate launch commit criteria and flight rules. When applied to launch or landing sites, this capability will reduce both weather hazards and weather-related scrubs, thus enhancing both safety and cost-avoidance for vehicles processed by the Shuttle, Launch Services Program, and Constellation Directorates. The GEMSTONE project will conclude with a field experiment in which 10 to 15 probes are released over KSC in east central Florida. The probes will be neutrally buoyant at different altitudes from 500 to 3000 meters and will report their position, speed, heading, temperature, humidity, and
An Adaptive Association Test for Multiple Phenotypes with GWAS Summary Statistics.
Kim, Junghi; Bai, Yun; Pan, Wei
2015-12-01
We study the problem of testing for single marker-multiple phenotype associations based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics without access to individual-level genotype and phenotype data. For most published GWASs, because obtaining summary data is substantially easier than accessing individual-level phenotype and genotype data, while often multiple correlated traits have been collected, the problem studied here has become increasingly important. We propose a powerful adaptive test and compare its performance with some existing tests. We illustrate its applications to analyses of a meta-analyzed GWAS dataset with three blood lipid traits and another with sex-stratified anthropometric traits, and further demonstrate its potential power gain over some existing methods through realistic simulation studies. We start from the situation with only one set of (possibly meta-analyzed) genome-wide summary statistics, then extend the method to meta-analysis of multiple sets of genome-wide summary statistics, each from one GWAS. We expect the proposed test to be useful in practice as more powerful than or complementary to existing methods.
Xu Ke
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Tests for association between a haplotype and disease are commonly performed using a likelihood ratio test for heterogeneity between case and control haplotype frequencies. Using data from a study of association between heroin dependence and the DRD2 gene, we obtained estimated haplotype frequencies and the associated likelihood ratio statistic using two different computer programs, MLOCUS and GENECOUNTING. We also carried out permutation testing to assess the empirical significance of the results obtained. Results Both programs yielded similar, though not identical, estimates for the haplotype frequencies. MLOCUS produced a p value of 1.8*10-15 and GENECOUNTING produced a p value of 5.4*10-4. Permutation testing produced a p value 2.8*10-4. Conclusion The fact that very large differences occur between the likelihood ratio statistics from the two programs may reflect the fact that the haplotype frequencies for the combined group are not constrained to be equal to the weighted averages of the frequencies for the cases and controls, as they would be if they were directly observed rather than being estimated. Minor differences in haplotype frequency estimates can result in very large differences in the likelihood ratio statistic and associated p value.
Gofford, Jason; Reeves, James N.; Tombesi, Francesco; Braito, Valentina; Turner, T. Jane; Miller, Lance; Cappi, Massimo
2013-01-01
We present the results of a new spectroscopic study of Fe K-band absorption in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Using data obtained from the Suzaku public archive we have performed a statistically driven blind search for Fe XXV Healpha and/or Fe XXVI Lyalpha absorption lines in a large sample of 51 Type 1.0-1.9 AGN. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations we find that statistically significant absorption is detected at E greater than or approximately equal to 6.7 keV in 20/51 sources at the P(sub MC) greater than or equal tov 95 per cent level, which corresponds to approximately 40 per cent of the total sample. In all cases, individual absorption lines are detected independently and simultaneously amongst the two (or three) available X-ray imaging spectrometer detectors, which confirms the robustness of the line detections. The most frequently observed outflow phenomenology consists of two discrete absorption troughs corresponding to Fe XXV Healpha and Fe XXVI Lyalpha at a common velocity shift. From xstar fitting the mean column density and ionization parameter for the Fe K absorption components are log (N(sub H) per square centimeter)) is approximately equal to 23 and log (Xi/erg centimeter per second) is approximately equal to 4.5, respectively. Measured outflow velocities span a continuous range from less than1500 kilometers per second up to approximately100 000 kilometers per second, with mean and median values of approximately 0.1 c and approximately 0.056 c, respectively. The results of this work are consistent with those recently obtained using XMM-Newton and independently provides strong evidence for the existence of very highly ionized circumnuclear material in a significant fraction of both radio-quiet and radio-loud AGN in the local universe.
Test-Run of the Live Global Classroom
LI Xin-xin
2014-01-01
How can we make it possible for instructors and students from different countries and regions to meet“face-to-face”and experience live teaching and learning? The most economic and efficient solution is the“live global classroom”. This paper provides an example of the live global classroom approach conducted cooperatively by the American Alliance for International Education and the University of Science and Technology Beijing, which was aimed at educating undergraduate engineering stu-dents over the Internet. In this paper, we introduce the background for the live global classroom, the demands of the“Plan for Educating and Training Outstanding Engineers”in China, the operational model, the technical requirements for the project and its current organizational challenges. Internationalized e-learning is expected to lead the trend of remote teaching, not only in lan-guage learning but also in engineer educating in China.
Role of Statistical tests in Estimation of the Security of a New Encryption Algorithm
Krishna, Addepalli V N
2010-01-01
Encryption study basically deals with three levels of algorithms. The first algorithm deals with encryption mechanism, second deals with decryption Mechanism and the third discusses about the generation of keys and sub keys used in the encryption study. In the given study, a new algorithm is discussed. The algorithm executes a series of steps and generates a sequence. This sequence is being used as sub key to be mapped to plain text to generate cipher text. The strength of the encryption & Decryption process depends on the strength of sequence generated against crypto analysis.. In this part of work some statistical tests like Uniformity tests, Universal tests & Repetition tests are tried on the sequence generated to test the strength of it.
Holbech, Henrik
Since 2012, European experts work towards the development and validation of an OECD test guideline for mollusc reproductive toxicity with the freshwater gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis. A ring-test involving six laboratories allowed studying reproducibility of results, based on survival and reproduct......Since 2012, European experts work towards the development and validation of an OECD test guideline for mollusc reproductive toxicity with the freshwater gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis. A ring-test involving six laboratories allowed studying reproducibility of results, based on survival...... and reproduction data of snails monitored over 56 days exposure to cadmium. A classical statistical analysis of data was initially conducted by hypothesis tests and fit of parametric concentrationresponse models. However, as mortality occurred in exposed snails, these analyses require to be refined, particularly...... was twofold. First, we refined the statistical analyses of reproduction data accounting for mortality all along the test period. The variable “number of clutches/eggs produced per individual-day” was used for EC x modelling, as classically done in epidemiology in order to account for the time...
Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S
2016-02-01
Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.
Bringing a Global Perspective to Economics. Field Test Edition.
Woyach, Robert B.; And Others
Eight lessons on integrated global economics provide detailed instructional materials on world food and energy systems, international cartels, and the nature and process of foreign investments. The materials are designed to help high school social studies teachers develop student understanding of key economic systems and activities and reinforce…
Statistical analysis of the hen's egg test for micronucleus induction (HET-MN assay).
Hothorn, Ludwig A; Reisinger, Kerstin; Wolf, Thorsten; Poth, Albrecht; Fieblinger, Dagmar; Liebsch, Manfred; Pirow, Ralph
2013-09-18
The HET-MN assay (hen's egg test for micronucleus induction) is different from other in vitro genotoxicity assays in that it includes toxicologically important features such as absorption, distribution, metabolic activation, and excretion of the test compound. As a promising follow-up to complement existing in vitro test batteries for genotoxicity, the HET-MN is currently undergoing a formal validation. To optimize the validation, the present study describes a critical analysis of previously obtained HET-MN data to check the experimental design and to identify the most appropriate statistical procedure to evaluate treatment effects. Six statistical challenges (I-VI) of general relevance were identified, and remedies were provided which can be transferred to similarly designed test methods: a Williams-type trend test is proposed for overdispersed counts (II) by means of a square-root transformation which is robust for small sample sizes (I), variance heterogeneity (III), and possible downturn effects at high doses (IV). Due to near-to-zero or even zero-count data occurring in the negative control (V), a conditional comparison of the treatment groups against the mean of the historical controls (VI) instead of the concurrent control was proposed, which is in accordance with US-FDA recommendations. For the modified Williams-type tests, the power can be estimated depending on the magnitude and shape of the trend, the number of dose groups, and the magnitude of the MN counts in the negative control. The experimental design used previously (i.e. six eggs per dose group, scoring of 1000 cells per egg) was confirmed. The proposed approaches are easily available in the statistical computing environment R, and the corresponding R-codes are provided.
Love, Jeffrey J.; Coïsson, Pierdavide; Pulkkinen, Antti
2016-05-01
Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity ΔBh, the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S, and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold (nT/min) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and a site-to-site, proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1 σ, lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500, [350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nT/min. At 40°, we estimate once-per-century ΔBh, S, and R exceedances and 1 σ values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nT/min.
NONE
2002-07-01
This comprehensive report presents the Swiss Federal Office of Energy's statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2001. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The article also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2001 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Finally, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable sources of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power.
NONE
2008-07-01
This comprehensive report presents the Swiss Federal Office of Energy's statistics on energy production and consumption in Switzerland in 2007. Facts and figures are presented in tables and diagrams. First of all, a general overview of Swiss energy consumption is presented that includes details on the shares taken by the various energy carriers involved and their development during the period reviewed. The article also includes graphical representations of energy usage in various sectors such as households, trade and industry, transport and the services sector. Also, economic data on energy consumption is presented. A second chapter takes a look at energy flows from producers to consumers and presents an energy balance for Switzerland in the form of tables and an energy-flow diagram. The individual energy sources and the import, export and storage of energy carriers are discussed as is the conversion between various forms and categories of energy. Details on the consumption of energy, its growth over the years up to 2007 and energy use in various sectors are presented. Finally, the Swiss energy balance with reference to the use of renewable sources of energy such as solar energy, biomass, wastes and ambient heat is discussed and figures are presented on the contribution of renewables to heating and the generation of electrical power.
Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1: tests for correlation and regression analyses.
Faul, Franz; Erdfelder, Edgar; Buchner, Axel; Lang, Albert-Georg
2009-11-01
G*Power is a free power analysis program for a variety of statistical tests. We present extensions and improvements of the version introduced by Faul, Erdfelder, Lang, and Buchner (2007) in the domain of correlation and regression analyses. In the new version, we have added procedures to analyze the power of tests based on (1) single-sample tetrachoric correlations, (2) comparisons of dependent correlations, (3) bivariate linear regression, (4) multiple linear regression based on the random predictor model, (5) logistic regression, and (6) Poisson regression. We describe these new features and provide a brief introduction to their scope and handling.
Do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution? A new statistical test
Lunardi, Josè T; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N; Gallegati, Mauro
2011-01-01
We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functional forms belonging to the Subbotin family of distributions. While our hypotheses are rejected for the vast majority of sets at the sector level, we cannot rejected them at the subsector level, indicating that homogenous panels of firms could be described by a common functional form of growth rate distribution.
Case Studies for the Statistical Design of Experiments Applied to Powered Rotor Wind Tunnel Tests
Overmeyer, Austin D.; Tanner, Philip E.; Martin, Preston B.; Commo, Sean A.
2015-01-01
The application of statistical Design of Experiments (DOE) to helicopter wind tunnel testing was explored during two powered rotor wind tunnel entries during the summers of 2012 and 2013. These tests were performed jointly by the U.S. Army Aviation Development Directorate Joint Research Program Office and NASA Rotary Wing Project Office, currently the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Project, at NASA Langley Research Center located in Hampton, Virginia. Both entries were conducted in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel with a small portion of the overall tests devoted to developing case studies of the DOE approach as it applies to powered rotor testing. A 16-47 times reduction in the number of data points required was estimated by comparing the DOE approach to conventional testing methods. The average error for the DOE surface response model for the OH-58F test was 0.95 percent and 4.06 percent for drag and download, respectively. The DOE surface response model of the Active Flow Control test captured the drag within 4.1 percent of measured data. The operational differences between the two testing approaches are identified, but did not prevent the safe operation of the powered rotor model throughout the DOE test matrices.
Robust Statistical Tests of Dragon-Kings beyond Power Law Distributions
Pisarenko, V F
2011-01-01
We ask the question whether it is possible to diagnose the existence of "Dragon-Kings" (DK), namely anomalous observations compared to a power law background distribution of event sizes. We present two new statistical tests, the U-test and the DK-test, aimed at identifying the existence of even a single anomalous event in the tail of the distribution of just a few tens of observations. The DK-test in particular is derived such that the p-value of its statistic is independent of the exponent characterizing the null hypothesis. We demonstrate how to apply these two tests on the distributions of cities and of agglomerations in a number of countries. We find the following evidence for Dragon-Kings: London in the distribution of city sizes of Great Britain; Moscow and St-Petersburg in the distribution of city sizes in the Russian Federation; and Paris in the distribution of agglomeration sizes in France. True negatives are also reported, for instance the absence of Dragon-Kings in the distribution of cities in Ger...
Application of multiple statistical tests to enhance mass spectrometry-based biomarker discovery
Garner Harold R
2009-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Mass spectrometry-based biomarker discovery has long been hampered by the difficulty in reconciling lists of discriminatory peaks identified by different laboratories for the same diseases studied. We describe a multi-statistical analysis procedure that combines several independent computational methods. This approach capitalizes on the strengths of each to analyze the same high-resolution mass spectral data set to discover consensus differential mass peaks that should be robust biomarkers for distinguishing between disease states. Results The proposed methodology was applied to a pilot narcolepsy study using logistic regression, hierarchical clustering, t-test, and CART. Consensus, differential mass peaks with high predictive power were identified across three of the four statistical platforms. Based on the diagnostic accuracy measures investigated, the performance of the consensus-peak model was a compromise between logistic regression and CART, which produced better models than hierarchical clustering and t-test. However, consensus peaks confer a higher level of confidence in their ability to distinguish between disease states since they do not represent peaks that are a result of biases to a particular statistical algorithm. Instead, they were selected as differential across differing data distribution assumptions, demonstrating their true discriminatory potential. Conclusion The methodology described here is applicable to any high-resolution MALDI mass spectrometry-derived data set with minimal mass drift which is essential for peak-to-peak comparison studies. Four statistical approaches with differing data distribution assumptions were applied to the same raw data set to obtain consensus peaks that were found to be statistically differential between the two groups compared. These consensus peaks demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy when used to form a predictive model as evaluated by receiver operating characteristics
Cirrus clouds in a global climate model with a statistical cirrus cloud scheme
M. Wang
2010-06-01
Full Text Available A statistical cirrus cloud scheme that accounts for mesoscale temperature perturbations is implemented in a coupled aerosol and atmospheric circulation model to better represent both subgrid-scale supersaturation and cloud formation. This new scheme treats the effects of aerosol on cloud formation and ice freezing in an improved manner, and both homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are included. The scheme is able to better simulate the observed probability distribution of relative humidity compared to the scheme that was implemented in an older version of the model. Heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN are shown to decrease the frequency of occurrence of supersaturation, and improve the comparison with observations at 192 hPa. Homogeneous freezing alone can not reproduce observed ice crystal number concentrations at low temperatures (<205 K, but the addition of heterogeneous IN improves the comparison somewhat. Increases in heterogeneous IN affect both high level cirrus clouds and low level liquid clouds. Increases in cirrus clouds lead to a more cloudy and moist lower troposphere with less precipitation, effects which we associate with the decreased convective activity. The change in the net cloud forcing is not very sensitive to the change in ice crystal concentrations, but the change in the net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere is still large because of changes in water vapor. Changes in the magnitude of the assumed mesoscale temperature perturbations by 25% alter the ice crystal number concentrations and the net radiative fluxes by an amount that is comparable to that from a factor of 10 change in the heterogeneous IN number concentrations. Further improvements on the representation of mesoscale temperature perturbations, heterogeneous IN and the competition between homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are needed.
Zain, Zakiyah, E-mail: zac@uum.edu.my; Ahmad, Yuhaniz, E-mail: yuhaniz@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, UUM Sintok 06010, Kedah (Malaysia); Azwan, Zairul, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Raduan, Farhana, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com; Sagap, Ismail, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com [Surgery Department, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif, 56000 Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Aziz, Nazrina, E-mail: nazrina@uum.edu.my
2014-12-04
Colorectal cancer is the third and the second most common cancer worldwide in men and women respectively, and the second in Malaysia for both genders. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are among the options available for treatment of patients with colorectal cancer. In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve several responses or endpoints, and this situation complicates the analysis. In the case of colorectal cancer, sets of responses concerned with survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For a patient, the time to recurrence is correlated to the overall survival. In this study, global score test methodology is used in combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each survival endpoint into a single statistic. The data of tumor recurrence and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients are taken from a Malaysian hospital. The results are found to be similar to those computed using the established Wei, Lin and Weissfeld method. Key factors such as ethnic, gender, age and stage at diagnose are also reported.
COLOR IMAGE RETRIEVAL BASED ON NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS
R. Shekhar
2016-09-01
Full Text Available A novel method for color image retrieval, based on statistical non-parametric tests such as twosample Wald Test for equality of variance and Man-Whitney U test, is proposed in this paper. The proposed method tests the deviation, i.e. distance in terms of variance between the query and target images; if the images pass the test, then it is proceeded to test the spectrum of energy, i.e. distance between the mean values of the two images; otherwise, the test is dropped. If the query and target images pass the tests then it is inferred that the two images belong to the same class, i.e. both the images are same; otherwise, it is assumed that the images belong to different classes, i.e. both images are different. The proposed method is robust for scaling and rotation, since it adjusts itself and treats either the query image or the target image is the sample of other.
Coulson, Melissa; Healey, Michelle; Fidler, Fiona; Cumming, Geoff
2010-01-01
A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), or confidence intervals (CIs). Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.
Melissa Coulson
2010-07-01
Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.
2009-01-01
Ericsson is a global provider of telecommunications systems equipment and related services for mobile and fixed network operators. 3Gsim is a tool used by Ericsson in tests of the 3G RNC node. In order to validate the tests, statistics are constantly gathered within 3Gsim and users can use telnet to access the statistics using some system specific 3Gsim commands. The statistics can be retrieved but is unstructured for the human eye and needs parsing and arranging to be readable. The statist...
Stefano Caruson
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract The remarkable importance of a calibration of a test lies in the formalization of useful statistical norms. In particular, the determination of these norms is of key importance for the Rorschach Test because of it allows objectifying the estimates of the interpretations’ formal qualities, and help to characterize responses consistent with the common perception. The aim of this work is to communicate the new results provided by a study conducted on Rorschach protocols related to a sample of “non-clinical” subjects. The expert team in Psychodiagnostic of CIFRIC (Italian Center for training, research and clinic in medicine and psychology has carried out the following work identifying the rate at which the details of each card are interpreted by normative sample. The data obtained are systematized in new Location sheets, which refers to the next edition of the "Updated Manual of Locations and Coding of Responses to Rorschach Test". Considering the Rorschach Test one of the more effective means for the acquaintance of the personality, it appears therefore fundamental to provide the professional, who uses it, with the possibility of accessing updated statistical data that reflect the population of reference, in order to deduce from them reliable and objectively valid indications.
A Statistical Approach for Testing Cross-Phenotype Effects of Rare Variants
Broadaway, K. Alaine; Cutler, David J.; Duncan, Richard; Moore, Jacob L.; Ware, Erin B.; Jhun, Min A.; Bielak, Lawrence F.; Zhao, Wei; Smith, Jennifer A.; Peyser, Patricia A.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Ghosh, Debashis; Epstein, Michael P.
2016-01-01
Increasing empirical evidence suggests that many genetic variants influence multiple distinct phenotypes. When cross-phenotype effects exist, multivariate association methods that consider pleiotropy are often more powerful than univariate methods that model each phenotype separately. Although several statistical approaches exist for testing cross-phenotype effects for common variants, there is a lack of similar tests for gene-based analysis of rare variants. In order to fill this important gap, we introduce a statistical method for cross-phenotype analysis of rare variants using a nonparametric distance-covariance approach that compares similarity in multivariate phenotypes to similarity in rare-variant genotypes across a gene. The approach can accommodate both binary and continuous phenotypes and further can adjust for covariates. Our approach yields a closed-form test whose significance can be evaluated analytically, thereby improving computational efficiency and permitting application on a genome-wide scale. We use simulated data to demonstrate that our method, which we refer to as the Gene Association with Multiple Traits (GAMuT) test, provides increased power over competing approaches. We also illustrate our approach using exome-chip data from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy. PMID:26942286
LIU Yan-fang; ZHANG Jian-hua; L Bo; YANG Xiao-hong; LI Yan-gang; WANG Ye; WANG Jiang-min; ZHANG Hui; GUAN Jun-jiao
2013-01-01
Selection of quantitative characteristics, division of their expression ranges, and selection of example varieties are key issues on developing DUS Test Guidelines, which are more crucial for quantitative characteristics since their expressions vary in different degrees. Taking the development of DUS Test Guideline of Ranunculus asiaticus L. as an example, this paper applied statistic-based approaches for the analyses of quantitative characteristics. We selected 9 quantitative characteristics from 18 pre-selected characteristics, based on within-variety uniformity, stability between different growing cycles, and correlation among characteristics, by the analyses of coefficient of variation, paired-samples t-test and partial correlation. The expression ranges of the 9 selected quantitative characteristics were divided into different states using descriptive statistics and distribution frequency of varieties. Eight of the 9 selected quantitative characteristics were categorized as standard characteristics as they showed one peak in distribution frequency of 120 varieties in various expressions of the characteristics, whereas, plant height can be categorized as grouping characteristic since it gave two peaks, and can group the varieties into pot and cut varieties. Finally, box-plot was applied to visually select the example varieties, and varieties 7, 12, and 28 were determined as the example varieties for plant height. The methods described in this paper are effective for the selection of quantitative characteristics, division of expression ranges, and selection of example varieties in Ranunculus asiaticus L. for DUS test, and may also be interest for other plant genera.
Feyissa, Daniel D.; Aher, Yogesh D.; Engidawork, Ephrem; Höger, Harald; Lubec, Gert; Korz, Volker
2017-01-01
Animal models for anxiety, depressive-like and cognitive diseases or aging often involve testing of subjects in behavioral test batteries. The large number of test variables with different mean variations and within and between test correlations often constitute a significant problem in determining essential variables to assess behavioral patterns and their variation in individual animals as well as appropriate statistical treatment. Therefore, we applied a multivariate approach (principal component analysis) to analyse the behavioral data of 162 male adult Sprague-Dawley rats that underwent a behavioral test battery including commonly used tests for spatial learning and memory (holeboard) and different behavioral patterns (open field, elevated plus maze, forced swim test) as well as for motor abilities (Rota rod). The high dimensional behavioral results were reduced to fewer components associated with spatial cognition, general activity, anxiety-, and depression-like behavior and motor ability. The loading scores of individual rats on these different components allow an assessment and the distribution of individual features in a population of animals. The reduced number of components can be used also for statistical calculations like appropriate sample sizes for valid discriminations between experimental groups, which otherwise have to be done on each variable. Because the animals were intact, untreated and experimentally naïve the results reflect trait patterns of behavior and thus individuality. The distribution of animals with high or low levels of anxiety, depressive-like behavior, general activity and cognitive features in a local population provides information of the probability of their appeareance in experimental samples and thus may help to avoid biases. However, such an analysis initially requires a large cohort of animals in order to gain a valid assessment.
Kollias, Pavlos [McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Dept.
2017-02-09
This is a multi-institutional, collaborative project using a three-tier modeling approach to bridge field observations and global cloud-permitting models, with emphases on cloud population structural evolution through various large-scale environments. Our contribution was in data analysis for the generation of high value cloud and precipitation products and derive cloud statistics for model validation. There are two areas in data analysis that we contributed: the development of a synergistic cloud and precipitation cloud classification that identify different cloud (e.g. shallow cumulus, cirrus) and precipitation types (shallow, deep, convective, stratiform) using profiling ARM observations and the development of a quantitative precipitation rate retrieval algorithm using profiling ARM observations. Similar efforts have been developed in the past for precipitation (weather radars), but not for the millimeter-wavelength (cloud) radar deployed at the ARM sites.
Statistical auditing and randomness test of lotto k/N-type games
Coronel-Brizio, H F; Rapallo, Fabio; Scalas, Enrico
2008-01-01
One of the most popular lottery games worldwide is the so-called ``lotto k/N''. It considers N numbers 1,2,...,N from which k are drawn randomly, without replacement. A player selects k or more numbers and the first prize is shared amongst those players whose selected numbers match all of the k randomly drawn. Exact rules may vary in different countries. In this paper, mean values and covariances for the random variables representing the numbers drawn from this kind of game are presented, with the aim of using them to audit statistically the consistency of a given sample of historical results with theoretical values coming from a hypergeometric statistical model. The method can be adapted to test pseudorandom number generators.
Statistical test of Duane-Hunt's law and its comparison with an alternative law
Perkovac, Milan
2010-01-01
Using Pearson correlation coefficient a statistical analysis of Duane-Hunt and Kulenkampff's measurement results was performed. This analysis reveals that empirically based Duane-Hunt's law is not entirely consistent with the measurement data. The author has theoretically found the action of electromagnetic oscillators, which corresponds to Planck's constant, and also has found an alternative law based on the classical theory. Using the same statistical method, this alternative law is likewise tested, and it is proved that the alternative law is completely in accordance with the measurements. The alternative law gives a relativistic expression for the energy of electromagnetic wave emitted or absorbed by atoms and proves that the empirically derived Planck-Einstein's expression is only valid for relatively low frequencies. Wave equation, which is similar to the Schr\\"odinger equation, and wavelength of the standing electromagnetic wave are also established by the author's analysis. For a relatively low energy...
Statistical auditing and randomness test of lotto k/N-type games
Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Rapallo, F.; Scalas, E.
2008-11-01
One of the most popular lottery games worldwide is the so-called “lotto k/N”. It considers N numbers 1,2,…,N from which k are drawn randomly, without replacement. A player selects k or more numbers and the first prize is shared amongst those players whose selected numbers match all of the k randomly drawn. Exact rules may vary in different countries. In this paper, mean values and covariances for the random variables representing the numbers drawn from this kind of game are presented, with the aim of using them to audit statistically the consistency of a given sample of historical results with theoretical values coming from a hypergeometric statistical model. The method can be adapted to test pseudorandom number generators.
Mulcom: a multiple comparison statistical test for microarray data in Bioconductor
Renzulli Tommaso
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many microarray experiments search for genes with differential expression between a common "reference" group and multiple "test" groups. In such cases currently employed statistical approaches based on t-tests or close derivatives have limited efficacy, mainly because estimation of the standard error is done on only two groups at a time. Alternative approaches based on ANOVA correctly capture within-group variance from all the groups, but then do not confront single test groups with the reference. Ideally, a t-test better suited for this type of data would compare each test group with the reference, but use within-group variance calculated from all the groups. Results We implemented an R-Bioconductor package named Mulcom, with a statistical test derived from the Dunnett's t-test, designed to compare multiple test groups individually against a common reference. Interestingly, the Dunnett's test uses for the denominator of each comparison a within-group standard error aggregated from all the experimental groups. In addition to the basic Dunnett's t value, the package includes an optional minimal fold-change threshold, m. Due to the automated, permutation-based estimation of False Discovery Rate (FDR, the package also permits fast optimization of the test, to obtain the maximum number of significant genes at a given FDR value. When applied to a time-course experiment profiled in parallel on two microarray platforms, and compared with two commonly used tests, Mulcom displayed better concordance of significant genes in the two array platforms (39% vs. 26% or 15%, and higher enrichment in functional annotation to categories related to the biology of the experiment (p value Conclusions The Mulcom package provides a powerful tool for the identification of differentially expressed genes when several experimental conditions are compared against a common reference. The results of the practical example presented here show that lists of
Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed
2016-04-01
Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.
Drug-excipient compatibility testing using a high-throughput approach and statistical design.
Wyttenbach, Nicole; Birringer, Christian; Alsenz, Jochem; Kuentz, Martin
2005-01-01
The aim of our research was to develop a miniaturized high throughput drug-excipient compatibility test. Experiments were planned and evaluated using statistical experimental design. Binary mixtures of a drug, acetylsalicylic acid, or fluoxetine hydrochloride, and of excipients commonly used in solid dosage forms were prepared at a ratio of approximately 1:100 in 96-well microtiter plates. Samples were exposed to different temperature (40 degrees C/ 50 degrees C) and humidity (10%/75%) for different time (1 week/4 weeks), and chemical drug degradation was analyzed using a fast gradient high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC). Categorical statistical design was applied to identify the effects and interactions of time, temperature, humidity, and excipient on drug degradation. Acetylsalicylic acid was least stable in the presence of magnesium stearate, dibasic calcium phosphate, or sodium starch glycolate. Fluoxetine hydrochloride exhibited a marked degradation only with lactose. Factor-interaction plots revealed that the relative humidity had the strongest effect on the drug excipient blends tested. In conclusion, the developed technique enables fast drug-excipient compatibility testing and identification of interactions. Since only 0.1 mg of drug is needed per data point, fast rational preselection of the pharmaceutical additives can be performed early in solid dosage form development.
SNSequate: Standard and Nonstandard Statistical Models and Methods for Test Equating
Jorge González
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Equating is a family of statistical models and methods that are used to adjust scores on two or more versions of a test, so that the scores from different tests may be used interchangeably. In this paper we present the R package SNSequate which implements both standard and nonstandard statistical models and methods for test equating. The package construction was motivated by the need of having a modular, simple, yet comprehensive, and general software that carries out traditional and new equating methods. SNSequate currently implements the traditional mean, linear and equipercentile equating methods, as well as the mean-mean, mean-sigma, Haebara and Stocking-Lord item response theory linking methods. It also supports the newest methods such as local equating, kernel equating, and item response theory parameter linking methods based on asymmetric item characteristic functions. Practical examples are given to illustrate the capabilities of the software. A list of other programs for equating is presented, highlighting the main differences between them. Future directions for the package are also discussed.
Chu, Tsong-Lun [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Varuttamaseni, Athi [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Baek, Joo-Seok [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
2016-11-01
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRAs of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. This paper describes a statistical software testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applies it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).
Using Relative Statistics and Approximate Disease Prevalence to Compare Screening Tests.
Samuelson, Frank; Abbey, Craig
2016-11-01
Schatzkin et al. and other authors demonstrated that the ratios of some conditional statistics such as the true positive fraction are equal to the ratios of unconditional statistics, such as disease detection rates, and therefore we can calculate these ratios between two screening tests on the same population even if negative test patients are not followed with a reference procedure and the true and false negative rates are unknown. We demonstrate that this same property applies to an expected utility metric. We also demonstrate that while simple estimates of relative specificities and relative areas under ROC curves (AUC) do depend on the unknown negative rates, we can write these ratios in terms of disease prevalence, and the dependence of these ratios on a posited prevalence is often weak particularly if that prevalence is small or the performance of the two screening tests is similar. Therefore we can estimate relative specificity or AUC with little loss of accuracy, if we use an approximate value of disease prevalence.
Castruccio, Stefano
2016-01-01
One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific datasets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a nontrivial model to a dataset of 1 billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^{18} entries. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Statistical Diagnosis and Gross Error Test for Semiparametric Linear Model%半参数模型统计诊断与粗差检验
丁士俊; 张松林; 姜卫平; 王守春
2009-01-01
This paper systematically studies the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for the semiparametric linear re-gression model according to the theories and methods of the statistical diagnosis and hypothesis testing for parametric re-gression model.Several diagnostic measures and the methods for gross error testing are derived.Especially,the global and local influence analysis of the gross error on the parameter X and the nonparameter s are discussed in detail; at the same time,the paper proves that the data point deletion model is equivalent to the mean shift model for the semiparametric re-gression model.Finally,with one simulative computing example,some helpful conclusions are drawn.
Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning
2016-01-01
Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...
Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning
2016-01-01
Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...
A statistical test on the reliability of the non-coevality of stars in binary systems
Valle, G; Moroni, P G Prada; Degl'Innocenti, S
2016-01-01
We develop a statistical test on the expected difference in age estimates of two coeval stars in detached double-lined eclipsing binary systems that are only caused by observational uncertainties. We focus on stars in the mass range [0.8; 1.6] Msun, and on stars in the main-sequence phase. The ages were obtained by means of the maximum-likelihood SCEPtER technique. The observational constraints used in the recovery procedure are stellar mass, radius, effective temperature, and metallicity [Fe/H]. We defined the statistic W computed as the ratio of the absolute difference of estimated ages for the two stars over the age of the older one. We determined the critical values of this statistics above which coevality can be rejected. The median expected difference in the reconstructed age between the coeval stars of a binary system -- caused alone by the observational uncertainties -- shows a strong dependence on the evolutionary stage. This ranges from about 20% for an evolved primary star to about 75% for a near Z...
Application of a generalized likelihood ratio test statistic to MAGIC data
Klepser, S; 10.1063/1.4772359
2012-01-01
The commonly used detection test statistic for Cherenkov telescope data is Li & Ma (1983), Eq. 17. It evaluates the compatibility of event counts in an on-source region with those in a representative off-region. It does not exploit the typically known gamma-ray point spread function (PSF) of a system, and in practice its application requires either assumptions on the symmetry of the acceptance across the field of view, orMonte Carlo simulations.MAGIC has an azimuth-dependent, asymmetric acceptance which required a careful review of detection statistics. Besides an adapted Li & Ma based technique, the recently presented generalized LRT statistic of [1] is now in use. It is more flexible, more sensitive and less systematics-affected, because it is highly customized for multi-pointing Cherenkov telescope data with a known PSF. We present the application of this new method to archival MAGIC data and compare it to the other, Li&Ma-based method.
Statistical Testing of Dynamically Downscaled Rainfall Data for the East Coast of Australia
Parana Manage, Nadeeka; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George
2015-04-01
This study performs a validation of statistical properties of downscaled climate data, concentrating on the rainfall which is required for hydrology predictions used in reservoir simulations. The data sets used in this study have been produced by the NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling) project which provides a dynamically downscaled climate dataset for South-East Australia at 10km resolution. NARCliM has used three configurations of the Weather Research Forecasting Regional Climate Model and four different GCMs (MIROC-medres 3.2, ECHAM5, CCCMA 3.1 and CSIRO mk3.0) from CMIP3 to perform twelve ensembles of simulations for current and future climates. Additionally to the GCM-driven simulations, three control run simulations driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the entire period of 1950-2009 has also been performed by the project. The validation has been performed in the Upper Hunter region of Australia which is a semi-arid to arid region 200 kilometres North-West of Sydney. The analysis used the time series of downscaled rainfall data and ground based measurements for selected Bureau of Meteorology rainfall stations within the study area. The initial testing of the gridded rainfall was focused on the autoregressive characteristics of time series because the reservoir performance depends on long-term average runoffs. A correlation analysis was performed for fortnightly, monthly and annual averaged time resolutions showing a good statistical match between reanalysis and ground truth. The spatial variation of the statistics of gridded rainfall series were calculated and plotted at the catchment scale. The spatial correlation analysis shows a poor agreement between NARCliM data and ground truth at each time resolution. However, the spatial variability plots show a strong link between the statistics and orography at the catchment scale.
Sassenhagen, Jona; Alday, Phillip M
2016-11-01
Experimental research on behavior and cognition frequently rests on stimulus or subject selection where not all characteristics can be fully controlled, even when attempting strict matching. For example, when contrasting patients to controls, variables such as intelligence or socioeconomic status are often correlated with patient status. Similarly, when presenting word stimuli, variables such as word frequency are often correlated with primary variables of interest. One procedure very commonly employed to control for such nuisance effects is conducting inferential tests on confounding stimulus or subject characteristics. For example, if word length is not significantly different for two stimulus sets, they are considered as matched for word length. Such a test has high error rates and is conceptually misguided. It reflects a common misunderstanding of statistical tests: interpreting significance not to refer to inference about a particular population parameter, but about 1. the sample in question, 2. the practical relevance of a sample difference (so that a nonsignificant test is taken to indicate evidence for the absence of relevant differences). We show inferential testing for assessing nuisance effects to be inappropriate both pragmatically and philosophically, present a survey showing its high prevalence, and briefly discuss an alternative in the form of regression including nuisance variables.
Escott-Price, Valentina; Ghodsi, Mansoureh; Schmidt, Karl Michael
2014-04-01
We evaluate the effect of genotyping errors on the type-I error of a general association test based on genotypes, showing that, in the presence of errors in the case and control samples, the test statistic asymptotically follows a scaled non-central $\\chi ^2$ distribution. We give explicit formulae for the scaling factor and non-centrality parameter for the symmetric allele-based genotyping error model and for additive and recessive disease models. They show how genotyping errors can lead to a significantly higher false-positive rate, growing with sample size, compared with the nominal significance levels. The strength of this effect depends very strongly on the population distribution of the genotype, with a pronounced effect in the case of rare alleles, and a great robustness against error in the case of large minor allele frequency. We also show how these results can be used to correct $p$-values.
Observations in the statistical analysis of NBG-18 nuclear graphite strength tests
Hindley, Michael P.; Mitchell, Mark N.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Groenwold, Albert A.
2012-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to report on the selection of a statistical distribution chosen to represent the experimental material strength of NBG-18 nuclear graphite. Three large sets of samples were tested during the material characterisation of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor and Core Structure Ceramics materials. These sets of samples are tensile strength, flexural strength and compressive strength (CS) measurements. A relevant statistical fit is determined and the goodness of fit is also evaluated for each data set. The data sets are also normalised for ease of comparison, and combined into one representative data set. The validity of this approach is demonstrated. A second failure mode distribution is found on the CS test data. Identifying this failure mode supports the similar observations made in the past. The success of fitting the Weibull distribution through the normalised data sets allows us to improve the basis for the estimates of the variability. This could also imply that the variability on the graphite strength for the different strength measures is based on the same flaw distribution and thus a property of the material.
Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing
2016-01-08
A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost
2006-03-01
Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.
Real space tests of the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the three year WMAP data
Lew, Bartosz
2008-01-01
CONTEXT: Gaussianity will become a strong observational tool allowing to constrain viable inflationary models. AIMS: In this paper, we introduce and analyze a new method for testing SI and Gaussianity and apply it to the 3 years WMAP CMB data. METHODS: We use an original pixelization scheme to divide the sky into regions of varying size and shape. We then measure the first four moments of the one-point distribution within these regions and using their simulated spatial distributions we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity hypotheses. By randomly varying orientations of these regions, their angular size and shape, we sample the underlying CMB field in a new manner, that offers a richer exploration of data the content. In our analysis we account for all correlations between different regions and also show the impact on the results when these correlations are neglected. The statistical significance is assessed via comparison with realistic Monte-Carlo simulations of the observed data. RESULTS: We find t...
Nuclear weapons tests and environmental consequences: a global perspective.
Prăvălie, Remus
2014-10-01
The beginning of the atomic age marked the outset of nuclear weapons testing, which is responsible for the radioactive contamination of a large number of sites worldwide. The paper aims to analyze nuclear weapons tests conducted in the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the impact of radioactive pollution on the atmospheric, aquatic, and underground environments. Special attention was given to the concentration of main radioactive isotopes which were released, such as ¹⁴C, ¹³⁷Cs, and ⁹⁰Sr, generally stored in the atmosphere and marine environment. In addition, an attempt was made to trace the spatial delimitation of the most heavily contaminated sites worldwide, and to note the human exposure which has caused a significantly increased incidence of thyroidal cancer locally and regionally. The United States is one of the important examples of assessing the correlation between the increase in the thyroid cancer incidence rate and the continental-scale radioactive contamination with ¹³¹I, a radioactive isotope which was released in large amounts during the nuclear tests carried out in the main test site, Nevada.
Statistical analysis and conformity testing of concrete in port construction work
M. C. Larrossa
Full Text Available Conformity control of concrete is part of a range of control and standard methods which must be employed in all construction work to assure its compliance with quality requirements. The compressive strength of the concrete is considered as a random variable that must be controlled by standardized sampling and testing in order to ensure the structural safety. Therefore, the use of a large amount of compressive strength test results of concretes with similar characteristics has been seen as an important tool in the assessment of current standard norms. This paper describes an analysis based on the conformity control used in large port construction works which have recently been carried out in the Rio Grande Port, located in Rio Grande, RS, Brazil. Statistical analyses were performed and acceptance tests of the product were conducted. They were based on the acceptance criteria of different methodologies from different continents and showed the variations that can occur in the results of the conformity testing, depending on the adopted model. It is worth mentioning that the concrete used in port construction works in the region has been in accordance with current Brazilian norms.
Debate on GMOs health risks after statistical findings in regulatory tests.
de Vendômois, Joël Spiroux; Cellier, Dominique; Vélot, Christian; Clair, Emilie; Mesnage, Robin; Séralini, Gilles-Eric
2010-10-05
We summarize the major points of international debate on health risk studies for the main commercialized edible GMOs. These GMOs are soy, maize and oilseed rape designed to contain new pesticide residues since they have been modified to be herbicide-tolerant (mostly to Roundup) or to produce mutated Bt toxins. The debated alimentary chronic risks may come from unpredictable insertional mutagenesis effects, metabolic effects, or from the new pesticide residues. The most detailed regulatory tests on the GMOs are three-month long feeding trials of laboratory rats, which are biochemically assessed. The tests are not compulsory, and are not independently conducted. The test data and the corresponding results are kept in secret by the companies. Our previous analyses of regulatory raw data at these levels, taking the representative examples of three GM maize NK 603, MON 810, and MON 863 led us to conclude that hepatorenal toxicities were possible, and that longer testing was necessary. Our study was criticized by the company developing the GMOs in question and the regulatory bodies, mainly on the divergent biological interpretations of statistically significant biochemical and physiological effects. We present the scientific reasons for the crucially different biological interpretations and also highlight the shortcomings in the experimental protocols designed by the company. The debate implies an enormous responsibility towards public health and is essential due to nonexistent traceability or epidemiological studies in the GMO-producing countries.
Debate on GMOs Health Risks after Statistical Findings in Regulatory Tests
Joël Spiroux de Vendômois, Dominique Cellier, Christian Vélot, Emilie Clair, Robin Mesnage, Gilles-Eric Séralini
2010-01-01
Full Text Available We summarize the major points of international debate on health risk studies for the main commercialized edible GMOs. These GMOs are soy, maize and oilseed rape designed to contain new pesticide residues since they have been modified to be herbicide-tolerant (mostly to Roundup or to produce mutated Bt toxins. The debated alimentary chronic risks may come from unpredictable insertional mutagenesis effects, metabolic effects, or from the new pesticide residues. The most detailed regulatory tests on the GMOs are three-month long feeding trials of laboratory rats, which are biochemically assessed. The tests are not compulsory, and are not independently conducted. The test data and the corresponding results are kept in secret by the companies. Our previous analyses of regulatory raw data at these levels, taking the representative examples of three GM maize NK 603, MON 810, and MON 863 led us to conclude that hepatorenal toxicities were possible, and that longer testing was necessary. Our study was criticized by the company developing the GMOs in question and the regulatory bodies, mainly on the divergent biological interpretations of statistically significant biochemical and physiological effects. We present the scientific reasons for the crucially different biological interpretations and also highlight the shortcomings in the experimental protocols designed by the company. The debate implies an enormous responsibility towards public health and is essential due to nonexistent traceability or epidemiological studies in the GMO-producing countries.
范玮丽
2008-01-01
This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.
Apostolos, Batsidis; Leandro, Pardo; Konstantinos, Zografos
2011-01-01
Recently Batsidis et al. (2011) have presented a new procedure based on divergence measures for testing the hypothesis of the existence of a change point in exponential populations. A simulation study was carried out using the asymptotic critical points obtained from the asymptotic distribution of the new test statistics introduced. The main purpose of this paper is to use the behavior of the test statistics introduced in the cited paper of Batsidis et al. (2011) using simulated critical points.
Lancé, Marcus D
2015-01-01
Thrombosis and hemorrhage are major contributors to morbidity and mortality. The traditional laboratory tests do not supply enough information to diagnose and treat patients timely and according to their phenotype. Global hemostasis tests might improve this circumstance. The viscoelastic tests (ROTE
Tulio Rosembuj
2006-12-01
Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.
Basile L. AGBA
2008-06-01
Full Text Available Mobile ad hoc networks (MANET are very difficult to design in terms of scenarios specification and propagation modeling. All these aspects must be taken into account when designing MANET. For cost-effective designing, powerful and accurate simulation tools are needed. Our first contribution in this paper is to provide a global approach process (GAP in channel modeling combining scenarios and propagation in order to have a better analysis of the physical layer, and finally to improve performances of the whole network. The GAP is implemented in an integrated simulation tool, Ad-SMPro. Moreover, channel statistics, throughput and delay are some key points to be considered when studying a mobile wireless networks. A carefully analysis of mobility effects over second order channel statistics and system performances is made based on our optimized simulation tool, Ad-SMProl. The channel is modeled by large scale fading and small scale fading including Doppler spectrum due to the double mobility of the nodes. Level Cross Rate and Average Duration of Fade are simulated as function of double mobility degree, a defined to be the ratio of the nodes' speeds. These results are compared to the theoretical predictions. We demonstrate that, in mobile ad hoc networks, flat fading channels and frequency-selective fading channels are differently affected. In addition, Bit Error rate is analysed as function of the ratio of the average bit energy to thermal noise density. Other performances (such as throughput, delay and routing traffic are analysed and conclusions related to the proposed simulation model and the mobility effects are drawn.
Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.
2011-01-01
Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean thunderstorms is 1.7 A while the mean current for land thunderstorms is 1.0 A. The mean current for ocean ESCs 0.41 A and the mean current for land ESCs is 0.13 A. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal flash rate statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean) from thunderstorms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from ESCs, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Mean storm counts are 1100 for land
Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning
2016-01-01
Based on an omnibus likelihood ratio test statistic for the equality of several variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value and a factorization of this test statistic, change analysis in a short sequence of multilook, polarimetric SAR data...... in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...
A statistical design for testing transgenerational genomic imprinting in natural human populations.
Yao Li
Full Text Available Genomic imprinting is a phenomenon in which the same allele is expressed differently, depending on its parental origin. Such a phenomenon, also called the parent-of-origin effect, has been recognized to play a pivotal role in embryological development and pathogenesis in many species. Here we propose a statistical design for detecting imprinted loci that control quantitative traits based on a random set of three-generation families from a natural population in humans. This design provides a pathway for characterizing the effects of imprinted genes on a complex trait or disease at different generations and testing transgenerational changes of imprinted effects. The design is integrated with population and cytogenetic principles of gene segregation and transmission from a previous generation to next. The implementation of the EM algorithm within the design framework leads to the estimation of genetic parameters that define imprinted effects. A simulation study is used to investigate the statistical properties of the model and validate its utilization. This new design, coupled with increasingly used genome-wide association studies, should have an immediate implication for studying the genetic architecture of complex traits in humans.
A statistical design for testing transgenerational genomic imprinting in natural human populations.
Li, Yao; Guo, Yunqian; Wang, Jianxin; Hou, Wei; Chang, Myron N; Liao, Duanping; Wu, Rongling
2011-02-25
Genomic imprinting is a phenomenon in which the same allele is expressed differently, depending on its parental origin. Such a phenomenon, also called the parent-of-origin effect, has been recognized to play a pivotal role in embryological development and pathogenesis in many species. Here we propose a statistical design for detecting imprinted loci that control quantitative traits based on a random set of three-generation families from a natural population in humans. This design provides a pathway for characterizing the effects of imprinted genes on a complex trait or disease at different generations and testing transgenerational changes of imprinted effects. The design is integrated with population and cytogenetic principles of gene segregation and transmission from a previous generation to next. The implementation of the EM algorithm within the design framework leads to the estimation of genetic parameters that define imprinted effects. A simulation study is used to investigate the statistical properties of the model and validate its utilization. This new design, coupled with increasingly used genome-wide association studies, should have an immediate implication for studying the genetic architecture of complex traits in humans.
Noel, Jean; Prieto, Juan C.; Styner, Martin
2017-03-01
Functional Analysis of Diffusion Tensor Tract Statistics (FADTTS) is a toolbox for analysis of white matter (WM) fiber tracts. It allows associating diffusion properties along major WM bundles with a set of covariates of interest, such as age, diagnostic status and gender, and the structure of the variability of these WM tract properties. However, to use this toolbox, a user must have an intermediate knowledge in scripting languages (MATLAB). FADTTSter was created to overcome this issue and make the statistical analysis accessible to any non-technical researcher. FADTTSter is actively being used by researchers at the University of North Carolina. FADTTSter guides non-technical users through a series of steps including quality control of subjects and fibers in order to setup the necessary parameters to run FADTTS. Additionally, FADTTSter implements interactive charts for FADTTS' outputs. This interactive chart enhances the researcher experience and facilitates the analysis of the results. FADTTSter's motivation is to improve usability and provide a new analysis tool to the community that complements FADTTS. Ultimately, by enabling FADTTS to a broader audience, FADTTSter seeks to accelerate hypothesis testing in neuroimaging studies involving heterogeneous clinical data and diffusion tensor imaging. This work is submitted to the Biomedical Applications in Molecular, Structural, and Functional Imaging conference. The source code of this application is available in NITRC.
Tropospheric delay statistics measured by two site test interferometers at Goldstone, California
Morabito, David D.; D'Addario, Larry R.; Acosta, Roberto J.; Nessel, James A.
2013-12-01
Site test interferometers (STIs) have been deployed at two locations within the NASA Deep Space Network tracking complex in Goldstone, California. An STI measures the difference of atmospheric delay fluctuations over a distance comparable to the separations of microwave antennas that could be combined as phased arrays for communication and navigation. The purpose of the Goldstone STIs is to assess the suitability of Goldstone as an uplink array site and to statistically characterize atmosphere-induced phase delay fluctuations for application to future arrays. Each instrument consists of two ~1 m diameter antennas and associated electronics separated by ~200 m. The antennas continuously observe signals emitted by geostationary satellites and produce measurements of the phase difference between the received signals. The two locations at Goldstone are separated by 12.5 km and differ in elevation by 119 m. We find that their delay fluctuations are statistically similar but do not appear as shifted versions of each other, suggesting that the length scale for evolution of the turbulence pattern is shorter than the separation between instruments. We also find that the fluctuations are slightly weaker at the higher altitude site.
A global test of the pollination syndrome hypothesis.
Ollerton, Jeff; Alarcón, Ruben; Waser, Nickolas M; Price, Mary V; Watts, Stella; Cranmer, Louise; Hingston, Andrew; Peter, Craig I; Rotenberry, John
2009-06-01
'Pollination syndromes' are suites of phenotypic traits hypothesized to reflect convergent adaptations of flowers for pollination by specific types of animals. They were first developed in the 1870s and honed during the mid 20th Century. In spite of this long history and their central role in organizing research on plant-pollinator interactions, the pollination syndromes have rarely been subjected to test. The syndromes were tested here by asking whether they successfully capture patterns of covariance of floral traits and predict the most common pollinators of flowers. Flowers in six communities from three continents were scored for expression of floral traits used in published descriptions of the pollination syndromes, and simultaneously the pollinators of as many species as possible were characterized. Ordination of flowers in a multivariate 'phenotype space' defined by the syndromes showed that almost no plant species fall within the discrete syndrome clusters. Furthermore, in approximately two-thirds of plant species, the most common pollinator could not be successfully predicted by assuming that each plant species belongs to the syndrome closest to it in phenotype space. The pollination syndrome hypothesis as usually articulated does not successfully describe the diversity of floral phenotypes or predict the pollinators of most plant species. Caution is suggested when using pollination syndromes for organizing floral diversity, or for inferring agents of floral adaptation. A fresh look at how traits of flowers and pollinators relate to visitation and pollen transfer is recommended, in order to determine whether axes can be identified that describe floral functional diversity more successfully than the traditional syndromes.
Jha, Sumit Kumar [University of Central Florida, Orlando; Pullum, Laura L [ORNL; Ramanathan, Arvind [ORNL
2016-01-01
Embedded intelligent systems ranging from tiny im- plantable biomedical devices to large swarms of autonomous un- manned aerial systems are becoming pervasive in our daily lives. While we depend on the flawless functioning of such intelligent systems, and often take their behavioral correctness and safety for granted, it is notoriously difficult to generate test cases that expose subtle errors in the implementations of machine learning algorithms. Hence, the validation of intelligent systems is usually achieved by studying their behavior on representative data sets, using methods such as cross-validation and bootstrapping.In this paper, we present a new testing methodology for studying the correctness of intelligent systems. Our approach uses symbolic decision procedures coupled with statistical hypothesis testing to. We also use our algorithm to analyze the robustness of a human detection algorithm built using the OpenCV open-source computer vision library. We show that the human detection implementation can fail to detect humans in perturbed video frames even when the perturbations are so small that the corresponding frames look identical to the naked eye.
Statistical Degradation Models for Reliability Analysis in Non-Destructive Testing
Chetvertakova, E. S.; Chimitova, E. V.
2017-04-01
In this paper, we consider the application of the statistical degradation models for reliability analysis in non-destructive testing. Such models enable to estimate the reliability function (the dependence of non-failure probability on time) for the fixed critical level using the information of the degradation paths of tested items. The most widely used models are the gamma and Wiener degradation models, in which the gamma or normal distributions are assumed as the distribution of degradation increments, respectively. Using the computer simulation technique, we have analysed the accuracy of the reliability estimates, obtained for considered models. The number of increments can be enlarged by increasing the sample size (the number of tested items) or by increasing the frequency of measuring degradation. It has been shown, that the sample size has a greater influence on the accuracy of the reliability estimates in comparison with the measuring frequency. Moreover, it has been shown that another important factor, influencing the accuracy of reliability estimation, is the duration of observing degradation process.
2008-01-01
Pattern informatics (PI) model is one of the recently developed predictive models of earthquake phys- ics based on the statistical mechanics of complex systems. In this paper, retrospective forecast test of the PI model was conducted for the earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region since 1988, exploring the possibility to apply this model to the estimation of time-dependent seismic hazard in continental China. Regional earthquake catalogue down to ML3.0 from 1970 to 2007 was used. The ‘target magnitude’ for the forecast test was MS5.5. Fifteen-year long ‘sliding time window’ was used in the PI calculation, with ‘anomaly training time window’ being 5 years and ‘forecast time window’ being 5 years, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test was conducted for the evaluation of the forecast result, showing that the PI forecast outperforms not only random guess but also the simple number counting approach based on the clustering hypothesis of earthquakes (the RI forecast). If the ‘forecast time window’ was shortened to 3 years and 1 year, respectively, the forecast capability of the PI model de- creased significantly, albeit outperformed random forecast. For the one year ‘forecast time window’, the PI result was almost comparable to the RI result, indicating that clustering properties play a more important role at this time scale.
Ma, Cong
2016-01-01
We use cosmological luminosity distance ($d_L$) from the JLA Type Ia supernovae compilation and angular-diameter distance ($d_A$) based on BOSS and WiggleZ baryon acoustic oscillation measurements to test the distance-duality relation $\\eta \\equiv d_L / [ (1 + z)^2 d_A ] = 1$. The $d_L$ measurements are matched to $d_A$ redshift by a statistically-motivated compression procedure. By means of Monte Carlo methods, non-trivial and correlated distributions of $\\eta$ can be explored in a straightforward manner without resorting to a particular evolution template $\\eta(z)$. Assuming Planck cosmological parameter uncertainty, we find 5% constraints in favor of $\\eta = 1$, consistent with the weaker 7--10% constraints obtained using WiggleZ data. These results stand in contrast to previous claims that $\\eta < 1$ has been found close to or above $1\\sigma$ level.
Statistical Testing of Segment Homogeneity in Classification of Piecewise–Regular Objects
Savchenko Andrey V.
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The paper is focused on the problem of multi-class classification of composite (piecewise-regular objects (e.g., speech signals, complex images, etc.. We propose a mathematical model of composite object representation as a sequence of independent segments. Each segment is represented as a random sample of independent identically distributed feature vectors. Based on this model and a statistical approach, we reduce the task to a problem of composite hypothesis testing of segment homogeneity. Several nearest-neighbor criteria are implemented, and for some of them the well-known special cases (e.g., the Kullback–Leibler minimum information discrimination principle, the probabilistic neural network are highlighted. It is experimentally shown that the proposed approach improves the accuracy when compared with contemporary classifiers.
Palazón, L; Navas, A
2017-06-01
Information on sediment contribution and transport dynamics from the contributing catchments is needed to develop management plans to tackle environmental problems related with effects of fine sediment as reservoir siltation. In this respect, the fingerprinting technique is an indirect technique known to be valuable and effective for sediment source identification in river catchments. Large variability in sediment delivery was found in previous studies in the Barasona catchment (1509 km(2), Central Spanish Pyrenees). Simulation results with SWAT and fingerprinting approaches identified badlands and agricultural uses as the main contributors to sediment supply in the reservoir. In this study the catchment showed that the most reliable solution was achieved using #2, the two step process of Kruskal-Wallis H-test and discriminant function analysis. The assessment showed the importance of the statistical procedure used to define the optimum composite fingerprint for sediment fingerprinting applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Comparison of statistical models to estimate daily milk yield in single milking testing schemes
Marija Klopcˇic
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Different statistical models were compared to estimate daily milk yield from morning or evening milking test results. The experiment was conducted on 14 family farms with 325 recorded cows. The amount of explained variance was higher for models including the effects of partial milk yield, the interval between successive milking, the interaction between partial milk yield and the milking interval and the farm (R2 = 0.976 for AM, R2 = 0.956 for PM than for models including partial milk yield effect only (R2 = 0.957 for AM, R2 = 0.937 for PM. Estimates of daily milk yield from linear models were more accurate than those obtained by doubling single milking weights. The results show that more complex model gives the best fit to the data. Differences between models according to determination and correlation coefficient were minor. Further investigations on larger sets of data are needed to draw more general conclusion.
Experimental Test of Heisenberg's Measurement Uncertainty Relation Based on Statistical Distances
Ma, Wenchao; Ma, Zhihao; Wang, Hengyan; Chen, Zhihua; Liu, Ying; Kong, Fei; Li, Zhaokai; Peng, Xinhua; Shi, Mingjun; Shi, Fazhan; Fei, Shao-Ming; Du, Jiangfeng
2016-04-01
Incompatible observables can be approximated by compatible observables in joint measurement or measured sequentially, with constrained accuracy as implied by Heisenberg's original formulation of the uncertainty principle. Recently, Busch, Lahti, and Werner proposed inaccuracy trade-off relations based on statistical distances between probability distributions of measurement outcomes [P. Busch et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 160405 (2013); P. Busch et al., Phys. Rev. A 89, 012129 (2014)]. Here we reformulate their theoretical framework, derive an improved relation for qubit measurement, and perform an experimental test on a spin system. The relation reveals that the worst-case inaccuracy is tightly bounded from below by the incompatibility of target observables, and is verified by the experiment employing joint measurement in which two compatible observables designed to approximate two incompatible observables on one qubit are measured simultaneously.
A Statistical Framework for Testing the Causal Effects of Fetal Drive
Nianjun eLiu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Maternal genetic and phenotypic characteristics (e.g., metabolic and behavioral affect both the intrauterine milieu and lifelong health trajectories of their fetuses. Yet at the same time, fetal genotype may affect processes that alter pre and postnatal maternal physiology, and the subsequent health of both fetus and mother. We refer to these latter effects as ‘fetal drive.’ If fetal genotype is driving physiologic, metabolic, and behavioral phenotypic changes in the mother, there is a possibility of differential effects with different fetal genomes inducing different long-term effects on both maternal and fetal health, mediated through intrauterine environment. This proposed mechanistic path remains largely unexamined and untested. In this study, we offer a statistical method to rigorously test this hypothesis and make causal inferences in humans by relying on the (conditional randomization inherent in the process of meiosis. For illustration, we apply this method to a dataset from the Framingham Heart Study.
Colegrave, Nick; Ruxton, Graeme D
2017-03-29
A common approach to the analysis of experimental data across much of the biological sciences is test-qualified pooling. Here non-significant terms are dropped from a statistical model, effectively pooling the variation associated with each removed term with the error term used to test hypotheses (or estimate effect sizes). This pooling is only carried out if statistical testing on the basis of applying that data to a previous more complicated model provides motivation for this model simplification; hence the pooling is test-qualified. In pooling, the researcher increases the degrees of freedom of the error term with the aim of increasing statistical power to test their hypotheses of interest. Despite this approach being widely adopted and explicitly recommended by some of the most widely cited statistical textbooks aimed at biologists, here we argue that (except in highly specialized circumstances that we can identify) the hoped-for improvement in statistical power will be small or non-existent, and there is likely to be much reduced reliability of the statistical procedures through deviation of type I error rates from nominal levels. We thus call for greatly reduced use of test-qualified pooling across experimental biology, more careful justification of any use that continues, and a different philosophy for initial selection of statistical models in the light of this change in procedure.
Zheng, Yinggan; Gierl, Mark J.; Cui, Ying
2010-01-01
This study combined the kernel smoothing procedure and a nonparametric differential item functioning statistic--Cochran's Z--to statistically test the difference between the kernel-smoothed item response functions for reference and focal groups. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the Type I error and power of the proposed…
Use of Global Behavior Tree for Conformance Testing of OSPF Protocol LSDB Synchronization
李中杰; 尹霞; 吴建平
2004-01-01
Protocol formalization is one of a class of hard problems in testing routing protocols and characterized by dynamic, concurrent and distributed behavior. For the purpose of performing conformance testing of the open shortest path first protocol link-state database (LSDB) synchronization process, the authors propose a formal model called global behavior tree, which describes global interactions among routers. The model is capable of representing distributed and concurrent behavior and allows for easy test derivation. The corresponding test notation and test derivation algorithm are studied. A simple test method is developed and a software tester is implemented. The results show that this model easily facilitates the testing process and allows a good test coverage.
Gray, Alistair; Veale, Jaimie F.; Binson, Diane; Sell, Randell L.
2013-01-01
Objective. Effectively addressing health disparities experienced by sexual minority populations requires high-quality official data on sexual orientation. We developed a conceptual framework of sexual orientation to improve the quality of sexual orientation data in New Zealand's Official Statistics System. Methods. We reviewed conceptual and methodological literature, culminating in a draft framework. To improve the framework, we held focus groups and key-informant interviews with sexual minority stakeholders and producers and consumers of official statistics. An advisory board of experts provided additional guidance. Results. The framework proposes working definitions of the sexual orientation topic and measurement concepts, describes dimensions of the measurement concepts, discusses variables framing the measurement concepts, and outlines conceptual grey areas. Conclusion. The framework proposes standard definitions and concepts for the collection of official sexual orientation data in New Zealand. It presents a model for producers of official statistics in other countries, who wish to improve the quality of health data on their citizens. PMID:23840231
Hassani, Hossein; Huang, Xu; Gupta, Rangan; Ghodsi, Mansi
2016-10-01
In a recent paper, Gupta et al., (2015), analyzed whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures based on monthly data covering the period 1880:1-2013:9. The authors find that standard time domain Granger causality test fails to reject the null hypothesis that sunspot numbers do not cause global temperatures for both full and sub-samples, namely 1880:1-1936:2, 1936:3-1986:11 and 1986:12-2013:9 (identified based on tests of structural breaks). However, frequency domain causality test detects predictability for the full-sample at short (2-2.6 months) cycle lengths, but not the sub-samples. But since, full-sample causality cannot be relied upon due to structural breaks, Gupta et al., (2015) conclude that the evidence of causality running from sunspot numbers to global temperatures is weak and inconclusive. Given the importance of the issue of global warming, our current paper aims to revisit this issue of whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures, using the same data set and sub-samples used by Gupta et al., (2015), based on an nonparametric Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-based causality test. Based on this test, we however, show that sunspot numbers have predictive ability for global temperatures for the three sub-samples, over and above the full-sample. Thus, generally speaking, our non-parametric SSA-based causality test outperformed both time domain and frequency domain causality tests and highlighted that sunspot numbers have always been important in predicting global temperatures.
Statistical methods for the analysis of a screening test for chronic beryllium disease
Frome, E.L.; Neubert, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Mathematical Sciences Section; Smith, M.H.; Littlefield, L.G.; Colyer, S.P. [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, TN (United States). Medical Sciences Div.
1994-10-01
The lymphocyte proliferation test (LPT) is a noninvasive screening procedure used to identify persons who may have chronic beryllium disease. A practical problem in the analysis of LPT well counts is the occurrence of outlying data values (approximately 7% of the time). A log-linear regression model is used to describe the expected well counts for each set of test conditions. The variance of the well counts is proportional to the square of the expected counts, and two resistant regression methods are used to estimate the parameters of interest. The first approach uses least absolute values (LAV) on the log of the well counts to estimate beryllium stimulation indices (SIs) and the coefficient of variation. The second approach uses a resistant regression version of maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. A major advantage of the resistant regression methods is that it is not necessary to identify and delete outliers. These two new methods for the statistical analysis of the LPT data and the outlier rejection method that is currently being used are applied to 173 LPT assays. The authors strongly recommend the LAV method for routine analysis of the LPT.
Statistical testing of the full-range leadership theory in nursing.
Kanste, Outi; Kääriäinen, Maria; Kyngäs, Helvi
2009-12-01
The aim of this study is to test statistically the structure of the full-range leadership theory in nursing. The data were gathered by postal questionnaires from nurses and nurse leaders working in healthcare organizations in Finland. A follow-up study was performed 1 year later. The sample consisted of 601 nurses and nurse leaders, and the follow-up study had 78 respondents. Theory was tested through structural equation modelling, standard regression analysis and two-way anova. Rewarding transformational leadership seems to promote and passive laissez-faire leadership to reduce willingness to exert extra effort, perceptions of leader effectiveness and satisfaction with the leader. Active management-by-exception seems to reduce willingness to exert extra effort and perception of leader effectiveness. Rewarding transformational leadership remained as a strong explanatory factor of all outcome variables measured 1 year later. The data supported the main structure of the full-range leadership theory, lending support to the universal nature of the theory.
Konijn, Elly A.; van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D.; Ferguson, Christopher J.
2015-01-01
The present paper argues that an important cause of publication bias resides in traditional frequentist statistics forcing binary decisions. An alternative approach through Bayesian statistics provides various degrees of support for any hypothesis allowing balanced decisions and proper null hypothes
A statistical test on the reliability of the non-coevality of stars in binary systems
Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.
2016-03-01
Aims: We develop a statistical test on the expected difference in age estimates of two coeval stars in detached double-lined eclipsing binary systems that are only caused by observational uncertainties. We focus on stars in the mass range [0.8; 1.6] M⊙, with an initial metallicity [Fe/H] from -0.55 to 0.55 dex, and on stars in the main-sequence phase. Methods: The ages were obtained by means of the SCEPtER technique, a maximum-likelihood procedure relying on a pre-computed grid of stellar models. The observational constraints used in the recovery procedure are stellar mass, radius, effective temperature, and metallicity [Fe/H]. To check the effect of the uncertainties affecting observations on the (non-)coevality assessment, the chosen observational constraints were subjected to a Gaussian perturbation before applying the SCEPtER code. We defined the statistic W computed as the ratio of the absolute difference of estimated ages for the two stars over the age of the older one. We determined the critical values of this statistics above which coevality can be rejected in dependence on the mass of the two stars, on the initial metallicity [Fe/H], and on the evolutionary stage of the primary star. Results: The median expected difference in the reconstructed age between the coeval stars of a binary system - caused alone by the observational uncertainties - shows a strong dependence on the evolutionary stage. This ranges from about 20% for an evolved primary star to about 75% for a near ZAMS primary. The median difference also shows an increase with the mass of the primary star from 20% for 0.8 M⊙ stars to about 50% for 1.6 M⊙ stars. The reliability of these results was checked by repeating the process with a grid of stellar models computed by a different evolutionary code; the median difference in the critical values was only 0.01. We show that the W test is much more sensible to age differences in the binary system components than the alternative approach of
The use of person-fit statistics in computerized adaptive testing
Meijer, R.R.; van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith
2005-01-01
Several person-fit statistics have been proposed to detect item score patterns that do not fit an item response theory model. To classify response patterns as not fitting a model, a distribution of a person-fit statistic is needed. Recently, the null distributions of several fit statistics have been
Link System Performance at the First Global Test of the CMS Alignment System
Arce, P.; Calvo, E.; Figueroa, C.F.; Rodrigo, T.; Vila, I.; Virto, A.L. [Universidad de Cantabria (Spain); Barcala, J.M.; Fernandez, M.G.; Ferrando, A.; Josa, M.I.; Molinero, A.; Oller, J.C. [CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)
2001-07-01
A test of components and a global test of the CMS alignment system was performed at the 14 hall of the ISR tunnel at CERN along Summer 2000. Positions are reconstructed and compared to survey measurements. The obtained results from the measurements of the Link System are presented here. (Author) 12 refs.
Testing of a "smart-pebble" for measuring particle transport statistics
Kitsikoudis, Vasileios; Avgeris, Loukas; Valyrakis, Manousos
2017-04-01
This paper presents preliminary results from novel experiments aiming to assess coarse sediment transport statistics for a range of transport conditions, via the use of an innovative "smart-pebble" device. This device is a waterproof sphere, which has 7 cm diameter and is equipped with a number of sensors that provide information about the velocity, acceleration and positioning of the "smart-pebble" within the flow field. A series of specifically designed experiments are carried out to monitor the entrainment of a "smart-pebble" for fully developed, uniform, turbulent flow conditions over a hydraulically rough bed. Specifically, the bed surface is configured to three sections, each of them consisting of well packed glass beads of slightly increasing size at the downstream direction. The first section has a streamwise length of L1=150 cm and beads size of D1=15 mm, the second section has a length of L2=85 cm and beads size of D2=22 mm, and the third bed section has a length of L3=55 cm and beads size of D3=25.4 mm. Two cameras monitor the area of interest to provide additional information regarding the "smart-pebble" movement. Three-dimensional flow measurements are obtained with the aid of an acoustic Doppler velocimeter along a measurement grid to assess the flow forcing field. A wide range of flow rates near and above the threshold of entrainment is tested, while using four distinct densities for the "smart-pebble", which can affect its transport speed and total momentum. The acquired data are analyzed to derive Lagrangian transport statistics and the implications of such an important experiment for the transport of particles by rolling are discussed. The flow conditions for the initiation of motion, particle accelerations and equilibrium particle velocities (translating into transport rates), statistics of particle impact and its motion, can be extracted from the acquired data, which can be further compared to develop meaningful insights for sediment transport
Segou, M.; Parsons, T.; Ellsworth, W. L.
2012-12-01
We implement a retrospective forecast test specific to the 1989 Loma Prieta sequence and we focus on the comparison between two realizations of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and twenty-one models based on Coulomb stress change calculations and rate-and-state theory (CRS). We find that: (1) ETAS models forecast the spatial evolution of seismicity better in the near-source region, (2) CRS models can compete with ETAS models at off-fault regions and short-periods after the mainshock, (3) adopting optimally oriented planes as receivers could lead to better performance for short-time period up to a few days, whereas geologically specified planes should be implemented at long-term forecasting, and (4) CRS models based on shear stress have comparable performance with other CRS models, with the benefit of fewer free parameters involved in the stress calculations. The above results show that physics-based and statistical forecast models are complimentary, and that future forecasts should be combinations of ETAS and CRS models in space and time. We note that the realization in time and space of the CRS models involves a number of critical parameters ('learning' phase seismicity rates, regional stress field, loading rates on faults), which should be retrospectively tested to improve the predictive power of physics-based models.During our experiment the forecast covers Northern California [123.0-121.3°W in longitude 36.4-38.2°N in latitude] in a 2.5 km spatial grid within a 10-day interval following a mainshock, but here we focus on the results related with the post-seismic period of Loma Prieta earthquake. We consider for CRS models a common learning phase (1974-1980) to ensure consistency in our comparison, and we take into consideration stress perturbations imparted by 9 M>5.0 earthquakes between 1980-1989 in Northern California, including the 1988-1989 Lake Ellsman events. ETAS parameters correspond to the maximum likelihood estimations derived after
Frank Pega
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Objective. Effectively addressing health disparities experienced by sexual minority populations requires high-quality official data on sexual orientation. We developed a conceptual framework of sexual orientation to improve the quality of sexual orientation data in New Zealand’s Official Statistics System. Methods. We reviewed conceptual and methodological literature, culminating in a draft framework. To improve the framework, we held focus groups and key-informant interviews with sexual minority stakeholders and producers and consumers of official statistics. An advisory board of experts provided additional guidance. Results. The framework proposes working definitions of the sexual orientation topic and measurement concepts, describes dimensions of the measurement concepts, discusses variables framing the measurement concepts, and outlines conceptual grey areas. Conclusion. The framework proposes standard definitions and concepts for the collection of official sexual orientation data in New Zealand. It presents a model for producers of official statistics in other countries, who wish to improve the quality of health data on their citizens.
Chu, Tsong-Lun [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Varuttamaseni, Athi [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Baek, Joo-Seok [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
2016-11-01
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan1 for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRA's of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and, (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities. Under NRC?s sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware2, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure3, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods4 7044. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability.
Shiraishi, Maresuke; Namba, Ryo; Namikawa, Toshiya; Hazumi, Masashi
2016-01-01
The B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies at large angular scales provides a smoking-gun evidence for the primordial gravitational waves (GWs). It is often stated that a discovery of the GWs establishes the quantum fluctuation of vacuum during the cosmic inflation. Since the GWs could also be generated by source fields, however, we need to check if a sizable signal exists due to such source fields before reaching a firm conclusion when the B-mode is discovered. Source fields of particular types can generate non-Gaussianity (NG) in the GWs. Testing statistics of the B-mode is a powerful way of detecting such NG. As a concrete example, we show a model in which a gauge field sources chiral GWs via a pseudoscalar coupling, and forecast the detection significance at the future CMB satellite LiteBIRD. Effects of residual foregrounds and lensing B-mode are both taken into account. We find the B-mode bispectrum "BBB" is in particular sensitive to the source-field NG, which is detec...
Ramus, Claire; Hovasse, Agnès; Marcellin, Marlène; Hesse, Anne-Marie; Mouton-Barbosa, Emmanuelle; Bouyssié, David; Vaca, Sebastian; Carapito, Christine; Chaoui, Karima; Bruley, Christophe; Garin, Jérôme; Cianférani, Sarah; Ferro, Myriam; Dorssaeler, Alain Van; Burlet-Schiltz, Odile; Schaeffer, Christine; Couté, Yohann; Gonzalez de Peredo, Anne
2016-03-01
This data article describes a controlled, spiked proteomic dataset for which the "ground truth" of variant proteins is known. It is based on the LC-MS analysis of samples composed of a fixed background of yeast lysate and different spiked amounts of the UPS1 mixture of 48 recombinant proteins. It can be used to objectively evaluate bioinformatic pipelines for label-free quantitative analysis, and their ability to detect variant proteins with good sensitivity and low false discovery rate in large-scale proteomic studies. More specifically, it can be useful for tuning software tools parameters, but also testing new algorithms for label-free quantitative analysis, or for evaluation of downstream statistical methods. The raw MS files can be downloaded from ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD001819. Starting from some raw files of this dataset, we also provide here some processed data obtained through various bioinformatics tools (including MaxQuant, Skyline, MFPaQ, IRMa-hEIDI and Scaffold) in different workflows, to exemplify the use of such data in the context of software benchmarking, as discussed in details in the accompanying manuscript [1]. The experimental design used here for data processing takes advantage of the different spike levels introduced in the samples composing the dataset, and processed data are merged in a single file to facilitate the evaluation and illustration of software tools results for the detection of variant proteins with different absolute expression levels and fold change values.
Semenov, Alexander V; Elsas, Jan Dirk; Glandorf, Debora C M; Schilthuizen, Menno; Boer, Willem F
2013-08-01
To fulfill existing guidelines, applicants that aim to place their genetically modified (GM) insect-resistant crop plants on the market are required to provide data from field experiments that address the potential impacts of the GM plants on nontarget organisms (NTO's). Such data may be based on varied experimental designs. The recent EFSA guidance document for environmental risk assessment (2010) does not provide clear and structured suggestions that address the statistics of field trials on effects on NTO's. This review examines existing practices in GM plant field testing such as the way of randomization, replication, and pseudoreplication. Emphasis is placed on the importance of design features used for the field trials in which effects on NTO's are assessed. The importance of statistical power and the positive and negative aspects of various statistical models are discussed. Equivalence and difference testing are compared, and the importance of checking the distribution of experimental data is stressed to decide on the selection of the proper statistical model. While for continuous data (e.g., pH and temperature) classical statistical approaches - for example, analysis of variance (ANOVA) - are appropriate, for discontinuous data (counts) only generalized linear models (GLM) are shown to be efficient. There is no golden rule as to which statistical test is the most appropriate for any experimental situation. In particular, in experiments in which block designs are used and covariates play a role GLMs should be used. Generic advice is offered that will help in both the setting up of field testing and the interpretation and data analysis of the data obtained in this testing. The combination of decision trees and a checklist for field trials, which are provided, will help in the interpretation of the statistical analyses of field trials and to assess whether such analyses were correctly applied. We offer generic advice to risk assessors and applicants that will
Astroclimate at San Pedro M\\'artir I: 2004-2008 Seeing Statistics from the TMT Site Testing Data
Sánchez, L J; Echevarría, J; Ruelas-Mayorga, A; García, A M; Avila, R; Carrasco, E; Carramiñana, A; Nigoche-Netro, A
2012-01-01
We present comprehensive seeing statistics for the San Pedro M\\'artir site derived from the Thirty Meter Telescope site selection data. The observations were obtained between 2004 and 2008 with a Differential Image Motion Monitor (DIMM) and a Multi Aperture Scintillation Sensor (MASS) combined instrument (MASS--DIMM). The parameters that are statistically analised here are: whole atmosphere seeing -measured by the DIMM-; free atmosphere seeing --measured by the MASS--; and ground-layer seeing (GL) --difference between the total and free-atmosphere seeing--. We made a careful data coverage study along with statistical distributions of simultaneous MASS--DIMM seeing measurements, in order to investigate the nightly, monthly, seasonal, annual and global behaviour, as well as possible hourly seeing trends. Although this campaign covers five years, the sampling is uneven, being 2006 and 2007 the best sampled years in terms of seasonal coverage. The overall results yield a median seeing of 0.78 (DIMM), 0.37 (MASS) ...
Miecznikowski, Jeffrey C; Damodaran, Senthilkumar; Sellers, Kimberly F; Rabin, Richard A
2010-12-15
Numerous gel-based softwares exist to detect protein changes potentially associated with disease. The data, however, are abundant with technical and structural complexities, making statistical analysis a difficult task. A particularly important topic is how the various softwares handle missing data. To date, no one has extensively studied the impact that interpolating missing data has on subsequent analysis of protein spots. This work highlights the existing algorithms for handling missing data in two-dimensional gel analysis and performs a thorough comparison of the various algorithms and statistical tests on simulated and real datasets. For imputation methods, the best results in terms of root mean squared error are obtained using the least squares method of imputation along with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm approach to estimate missing values with an array covariance structure. The bootstrapped versions of the statistical tests offer the most liberal option for determining protein spot significance while the generalized family wise error rate (gFWER) should be considered for controlling the multiple testing error. In summary, we advocate for a three-step statistical analysis of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) data with a data imputation step, choice of statistical test, and lastly an error control method in light of multiple testing. When determining the choice of statistical test, it is worth considering whether the protein spots will be subjected to mass spectrometry. If this is the case a more liberal test such as the percentile-based bootstrap t can be employed. For error control in electrophoresis experiments, we advocate that gFWER be controlled for multiple testing rather than the false discovery rate.
Sellers Kimberly F
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous gel-based softwares exist to detect protein changes potentially associated with disease. The data, however, are abundant with technical and structural complexities, making statistical analysis a difficult task. A particularly important topic is how the various softwares handle missing data. To date, no one has extensively studied the impact that interpolating missing data has on subsequent analysis of protein spots. Results This work highlights the existing algorithms for handling missing data in two-dimensional gel analysis and performs a thorough comparison of the various algorithms and statistical tests on simulated and real datasets. For imputation methods, the best results in terms of root mean squared error are obtained using the least squares method of imputation along with the expectation maximization (EM algorithm approach to estimate missing values with an array covariance structure. The bootstrapped versions of the statistical tests offer the most liberal option for determining protein spot significance while the generalized family wise error rate (gFWER should be considered for controlling the multiple testing error. Conclusions In summary, we advocate for a three-step statistical analysis of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE data with a data imputation step, choice of statistical test, and lastly an error control method in light of multiple testing. When determining the choice of statistical test, it is worth considering whether the protein spots will be subjected to mass spectrometry. If this is the case a more liberal test such as the percentile-based bootstrap t can be employed. For error control in electrophoresis experiments, we advocate that gFWER be controlled for multiple testing rather than the false discovery rate.
Kang, Xiao-guang; Ma, Qing-Bin
2005-01-01
Within the global urban system, the statistical relationship between urban eco-environment (UE) and urban competitiveness (UC) (RUEC) is researched. Data showed that there is a statistically inverted-U relationship between UE and UC. Eco-environmental factor is put into the classification of industries, and gets six industrial types by two indexes viz. industries' eco-environmental demand and pressure. The statistical results showed that there is a strong relationship, for new industrial classification, between the changes of industrial structure and evolvement of UE. The drive mechanism of the evolvement of urban eco-environment, with human demand and global work division was analyzed. The conclusion is that the development stratege, industrial policies of cities, and environmental policies fo cities must be fit with their ranks among the global urban system. At the era of globalization, so far as the environmental policies, their rationality could not be assessed with the level of strictness, but it can enhance cities' competitiveness when they are fit with cities' capabilities to attract and control some sections of the industry's value-chain. None but these kinds of environmental policies can probably enhance the UC.
KANG Xiao-guang; MA Qing-bin
2005-01-01
Within the global urban system, the statistical relationship between urban eco-environment(UE) and urban competitiveness(UC) (RUEC) is researched. Data showed that there is a statistically inverted-U relationship between UE and UC. Eco-environmental factor is put into the classification of industries, and gets six industrial types by two indexes viz. industries' eco-environmental demand and pressure. The statistical results showed that there is a strong relationship, for new industrial classification, between the changes of industrial structure and evolvement of UE. The drive mechanism of the evolvement of urban eco-environment, with human demand and global work division was analyzed.The conclusion is that the development stratege, industrial policies of cities, and environmental policies fo cities must be fit with their ranks among the global urban system. At the era of globalization, so far as the environmental policies, their rationality could not be assessed with the level of strictness, but it can enhance cities' competitiveness when they are fit with cities' capabilities to attract and control some sections of the industry's value-chain. None but these kinds of environmental policies can probably enhance the UC.
D. V. Spracklen
2007-01-01
Full Text Available A statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP. We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed sub-micrometre size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10–30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the marine boundary layer (MBL. Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic MBL aerosol, with typically 60–90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles (at the emission size and quantity assumed here do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the
Spracklen, D. V.; Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Manktelow, P.; Heintzenberg, J.
2007-04-01
A statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP). We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed sub-micrometre size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10-30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the marine boundary layer (MBL). Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic MBL aerosol, with typically 60-90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles (at the emission size and quantity assumed here) do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the observed and modelled
Jones, Andrew T.
2011-01-01
Practitioners often depend on item analysis to select items for exam forms and have a variety of options available to them. These include the point-biserial correlation, the agreement statistic, the B index, and the phi coefficient. Although research has demonstrated that these statistics can be useful for item selection, no research as of yet has…
Sub-poissonian statistics as an experimental test for the contextuality of quantum theory
Arnoldus, H.F.; Dieks, Dennis; Nienhuis, G.
1984-01-01
It is argued that the phenomenon of sub-poissonian statistics can be regarded as experimental evidence for the contextual character of quantum theory. To this end, it is shown that the statistics predicted by non-contextual hidden-variable theories must satisfy certain inequalities which are a kind
The Effects of Pre-Lecture Quizzes on Test Anxiety and Performance in a Statistics Course
Brown, Michael J.; Tallon, Jennifer
2015-01-01
The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of pre-lecture quizzes in a statistics course. Students (N = 70) from 2 sections of an introductory statistics course served as participants in this study. One section completed pre-lecture quizzes whereas the other section did not. Completing pre-lecture quizzes was associated with improved exam…
The Effects of Pre-Lecture Quizzes on Test Anxiety and Performance in a Statistics Course
Brown, Michael J.; Tallon, Jennifer
2015-01-01
The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of pre-lecture quizzes in a statistics course. Students (N = 70) from 2 sections of an introductory statistics course served as participants in this study. One section completed pre-lecture quizzes whereas the other section did not. Completing pre-lecture quizzes was associated with improved exam…
Fidalgo, Angel M.; Alavi, Seyed Mohammad; Amirian, Seyed Mohammad Reza
2014-01-01
This study examines three controversial aspects in differential item functioning (DIF) detection by logistic regression (LR) models: first, the relative effectiveness of different analytical strategies for detecting DIF; second, the suitability of the Wald statistic for determining the statistical significance of the parameters of interest; and…
WANG Hanjie; SHI Weilai; CHEN Xiaohong
2006-01-01
The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are: (1) The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. (2) The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. (3) The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. (4) The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.
Shiraishi, Maresuke; Hikage, Chiaki; Namba, Ryo; Namikawa, Toshiya; Hazumi, Masashi
2016-08-01
The B -mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies at large angular scales provides compelling evidence for the primordial gravitational waves (GWs). It is often stated that a discovery of the GWs establishes the quantum fluctuation of vacuum during the cosmic inflation. Since the GWs could also be generated by source fields, however, we need to check if a sizable signal exists due to such source fields before reaching a firm conclusion when the B mode is discovered. Source fields of particular types can generate non-Gaussianity (NG) in the GWs. Testing statistics of the B mode is a powerful way of detecting such NG. As a concrete example, we show a model in which gauge field sources chiral GWs via a pseudoscalar coupling and forecast the detection significance at the future CMB satellite LiteBIRD. Effects of residual foregrounds and lensing B mode are both taken into account. We find the B -mode bispectrum "BBB" is in particular sensitive to the source-field NG, which is detectable at LiteBIRD with a >3 σ significance. Therefore the search for the BBB will be indispensable toward unambiguously establishing quantum fluctuation of vacuum when the B mode is discovered. We also introduced the Minkowski functional to detect the NGs. While we find that the Minkowski functional is less efficient than the harmonic-space bispectrum estimator, it still serves as a useful cross-check. Finally, we also discuss the possibility of extracting clean information on parity violation of GWs and new types of parity-violating observables induced by lensing.
Fang, Yongxiang; Wit, Ernst
2008-01-01
Fisher’s combined probability test is the most commonly used method to test the overall significance of a set independent p-values. However, it is very obviously that Fisher’s statistic is more sensitive to smaller p-values than to larger p-value and a small p-value may overrule the other p-values a
Plum, Maja
Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...
Evaluating Statistical Targets for Assembling Parallel Mixed-Format Test Forms
Debeer, Dries; Ali, Usama S.; van Rijn, Peter W.
2017-01-01
Test assembly is the process of selecting items from an item pool to form one or more new test forms. Often new test forms are constructed to be parallel with an existing (or an ideal) test. Within the context of item response theory, the test information function (TIF) or the test characteristic curve (TCC) are commonly used as statistical…
An objective statistical test for eccentricity forcing of Oligo-Miocene climate
Proistosescu, C.; Huybers, P.; Maloof, A. C.
2008-12-01
We seek a maximally objective test for the presence of orbital features in Oligocene and Miocene δ18O records from marine sediments. Changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity are thought to be an important control on the long term variability of climate during the Oligocene and Miocene Epochs. However, such an important control from eccentricity is surprising because eccentricity has relatively little influence on Earth's annual average insolation budget. Nevertheless, if significant eccentricity variability is present, it would provide important insight into the operation of the climate system at long timescales. Here we use previously published data, but using a chronology which is initially independent of orbital assumptions, to test for the presence of eccentricity period variability in the Oligocene/Miocene sediment records. In contrast to the sawtooth climate record of the Pleistocene, the Oligocene and Miocene climate record appears smooth and symmetric and does not reset itself every hundred thousand years. This smooth variation, as well as the time interval spanning many eccentricity periods makes Oligocene and Miocene paleorecords very suitable for evaluating the importance of eccentricity forcing. First, we construct time scales depending only upon the ages of geomagnetic reversals with intervening ages linearly interpolated with depth. Such a single age-depth relationship is, however, too uncertain to assess whether orbital features are present. Thus, we construct a second depth-derived age-model by averaging ages across multiple sediment cores which have, at least partly, independent accumulation rate histories. But ages are still too uncertain to permit unambiguous detection of orbital variability. Thus we employ limited tuning assumptions and measure the degree by orbital period variability increases using spectral power estimates. By tuning we know that we are biasing the record toward showing orbital variations, but we account for this bias in our
Pestman, Wiebe R
2009-01-01
This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.
Ploberger, W.; Bierens, H.J.
1995-01-01
In this paper we study further the asymptotic power properties of the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of Bierens (1982) and Bierens and Ploberger (1994). First, we establish the relation between consistency against global alternatives and nontrivial local power, using the concept of
Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Ennis, John M.; Ennis, Daniel M.
2014-01-01
of such norms is valuable for more complete interpretation of 2-Alternative Choice (2-AC) data. For instance, these norms can be used to indicate consumer segmentation even with non-replicated data. In this paper, we show that the statistical test suggested by Ennis and Ennis (2012a) behaves poorly and has too...... high a type I error rate if the identicality norm is not estimated from a very large sample size. We then compare five χ2 tests of paired preference data with a no preference option in terms of type I error and power in a series of scenarios. In particular, we identify two tests that are well behaved...... for sample sizes typical of recent research and have high statistical power. One of these tests has the advantage that it can be decomposed for more insightful analyses in a fashion similar to that of ANOVA F-tests. The benefits are important because they enable more informed business decisions, particularly...
Tests for, origins of, and corrections to non-Gaussian statistics. The dipole-flip model.
Schile, Addison J; Thompson, Ward H
2017-04-21
Linear response approximations are central to our understanding and simulations of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Despite the success of these approaches in predicting nonequilibrium dynamics, open questions remain. Laird and Thompson [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 211104 (2007)] previously formalized, in the context of solvation dynamics, the connection between the static linear-response approximation and the assumption of Gaussian statistics. The Gaussian statistics perspective is useful in understanding why linear response approximations are still accurate for perturbations much larger than thermal energies. In this paper, we use this approach to address three outstanding issues in the context of the "dipole-flip" model, which is known to exhibit nonlinear response. First, we demonstrate how non-Gaussian statistics can be predicted from purely equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (i.e., without resort to a full nonequilibrium MD as is the current practice). Second, we show that the Gaussian statistics approximation may also be used to identify the physical origins of nonlinear response residing in a small number of coordinates. Third, we explore an approach for correcting the Gaussian statistics approximation for nonlinear response effects using the same equilibrium simulation. The results are discussed in the context of several other examples of nonlinear responses throughout the literature.
Comparison of tests for spatial heterogeneity on data with global clustering patterns and outliers
Hachey Mark
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to evaluate geographic heterogeneity of cancer incidence and mortality is important in cancer surveillance. Many statistical methods for evaluating global clustering and local cluster patterns are developed and have been examined by many simulation studies. However, the performance of these methods on two extreme cases (global clustering evaluation and local anomaly (outlier detection has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods We compare methods for global clustering evaluation including Tango's Index, Moran's I, and Oden's I*pop; and cluster detection methods such as local Moran's I and SaTScan elliptic version on simulated count data that mimic global clustering patterns and outliers for cancer cases in the continental United States. We examine the power and precision of the selected methods in the purely spatial analysis. We illustrate Tango's MEET and SaTScan elliptic version on a 1987-2004 HIV and a 1950-1969 lung cancer mortality data in the United States. Results For simulated data with outlier patterns, Tango's MEET, Moran's I and I*pop had powers less than 0.2, and SaTScan had powers around 0.97. For simulated data with global clustering patterns, Tango's MEET and I*pop (with 50% of total population as the maximum search window had powers close to 1. SaTScan had powers around 0.7-0.8 and Moran's I has powers around 0.2-0.3. In the real data example, Tango's MEET indicated the existence of global clustering patterns in both the HIV and lung cancer mortality data. SaTScan found a large cluster for HIV mortality rates, which is consistent with the finding from Tango's MEET. SaTScan also found clusters and outliers in the lung cancer mortality data. Conclusion SaTScan elliptic version is more efficient for outlier detection compared with the other methods evaluated in this article. Tango's MEET and Oden's I*pop perform best in global clustering scenarios among the selected methods. The use of SaTScan for
Dopfer, D.D.V.; Maassen, C.B.M.; Achterberg, R.P.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.; Teunis, P.; Buist, W.G.; Molina, V.; Guarnera, E.; Gonzales, M.; Krivokapich, S.; Rodriguez, M.; Peralta, J.L.; Trabattoni, H.; Larrieu, E.; Engel, B.
2006-01-01
To evaluate the usefulness of serological tests applied to monitor Trichinella free herds, Bayesian methodology was used to estimate the diagnostic test parameters: sensitivity, specificity and prevalence in the absence of a Gold Standard test. In the absence of Dutch serum samples for positive pigs
Association testing for next-generation sequencing data using score statistics
Skotte, Line; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Albrechtsen, Anders
2012-01-01
of genotype calls into account have been proposed; most require numerical optimization which for large-scale data is not always computationally feasible. We show that using a score statistic for the joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed sequencing data provides an attractive approach...... computationally feasible due to the use of score statistics. As part of the joint likelihood, we model the distribution of the phenotypes using a generalized linear model framework, which works for both quantitative and discrete phenotypes. Thus, the method presented here is applicable to case-control studies...
Batsidis, Apostolos; Pardo, Leandro; Zografos, Konstantinos
2011-01-01
This paper studies the change point problem for a general parametric, univariate or multivariate family of distributions. An information theoretic procedure is developed which is based on general divergence measures for testing the hypothesis of the existence of a change. For comparing the accuracy of the new test-statistic a simulation study is performed for the special case of a univariate discrete model. Finally, the procedure proposed in this paper is illustrated through a classical change-point example.
Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning
2016-01-01
in the covariance matrix representation is carried out. The omnibus test statistic and its factorization detect if and when change(s) occur. The technique is demonstrated on airborne EMISAR L-band data but may be applied to Sentinel-1, Cosmo-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS and RadarSat-2 or other dual- and quad...
Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li
2015-01-01
This research is concerned with two topics in assessing model fit for categorical data analysis. The first topic involves the application of a limited-information overall test, introduced in the item response theory literature, to structural equation modeling (SEM) of categorical outcome variables. Most popular SEM test statistics assess how well the model reproduces estimated polychoric correlations. In contrast, limited-information test statistics assess how well the underlying categorical data are reproduced. Here, the recently introduced C2 statistic of Cai and Monroe (2014) is applied. The second topic concerns how the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) fit index can be affected by the number of categories in the outcome variable. This relationship creates challenges for interpreting RMSEA. While the two topics initially appear unrelated, they may conveniently be studied in tandem since RMSEA is based on an overall test statistic, such as C2. The results are illustrated with an empirical application to data from a large-scale educational survey.
Oshima, T. C.; Raju, Nambury S.; Nanda, Alice O.
2006-01-01
A new item parameter replication method is proposed for assessing the statistical significance of the noncompensatory differential item functioning (NCDIF) index associated with the differential functioning of items and tests framework. In this new method, a cutoff score for each item is determined by obtaining a (1-alpha ) percentile rank score…
Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard
reflects the parameter chosen to implement the test, and (iii) since the asymptotic distribution depends on d and the test remains consistent for all d > 0, it is possible to analyze the power of the test for different values of d. The usual Phillips-Perron or Dickey-Fuller type tests are indexed...... good size properties, with finite sample power that is higher than that of Breitung's (2002) test and even rivals the (nearly) optimal parametric GLS detrended augmented Dickey-Fuller test with lag length chosen by an information criterion....
Comment on a Wilcox Test Statistic for Comparing Means When Variances Are Unequal.
Hsiung, Tung-Hsing; And Others
1994-01-01
The alternative proposed by Wilcox (1989) to the James second-order statistic for comparing population means when variances are heterogeneous can sometimes be invalid. The degree to which the procedure is invalid depends on differences in sample size, the expected values of the observations, and population variances. (SLD)
Novick, Melvin R.
This project is concerned with the development and implementation of some new statistical techniques that will facilitate a continuing input of information about the student to the instructional manager so that individualization of instruction can be managed effectively. The source of this informational input is typically a short…
Testing statistical significance scores of sequence comparison methods with structure similarity
Hulsen, T.; Vlieg, J. de; Leunissen, J.A.M.; Groenen, P.M.
2006-01-01
BACKGROUND: In the past years the Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm has gained popularity due to improved implementations and rapidly increasing computing power. However, the quality and sensitivity of a database search is not only determined by the algorithm but also by the statistical s
Testing statistical significance scores of sequence comparison methods with structure similarity
Hulsen, T.; Vlieg, de J.; Leunissen, J.A.M.; Groenen, P.
2006-01-01
Background - In the past years the Smith-Waterman sequence comparison algorithm has gained popularity due to improved implementations and rapidly increasing computing power. However, the quality and sensitivity of a database search is not only determined by the algorithm but also by the statistical
Olbryś Joanna
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to explicitly test a research hypothesis that there was no integration effect among the U.S. and the eight Central and Eastern European (CEE stock markets during the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC. As growing international integration could lead to a progressive increase in cross-market correlations, the evaluation of integration was carried out by applying equality tests of correlation matrices computed over non-overlapping subsamples: the pre-crisis and crisis periods, in the group of investigated markets. The crisis periods are formally established based on a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. The sample period May 2004-April 2014 includes the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The robustness analysis of the integration tests with respect to various data frequencies is provided. The empirical results are not homogeneous and they depend both on the integration test and data frequency. Consequently, it is not possible to conclude whether integration between the investigated markets is present.
Michael F W Festing
Full Text Available The safety of chemicals, drugs, novel foods and genetically modified crops is often tested using repeat-dose sub-acute toxicity tests in rats or mice. It is important to avoid misinterpretations of the results as these tests are used to help determine safe exposure levels in humans. Treated and control groups are compared for a range of haematological, biochemical and other biomarkers which may indicate tissue damage or other adverse effects. However, the statistical analysis and presentation of such data poses problems due to the large number of statistical tests which are involved. Often, it is not clear whether a "statistically significant" effect is real or a false positive (type I error due to sampling variation. The author's conclusions appear to be reached somewhat subjectively by the pattern of statistical significances, discounting those which they judge to be type I errors and ignoring any biomarker where the p-value is greater than p = 0.05. However, by using standardised effect sizes (SESs a range of graphical methods and an over-all assessment of the mean absolute response can be made. The approach is an extension, not a replacement of existing methods. It is intended to assist toxicologists and regulators in the interpretation of the results. Here, the SES analysis has been applied to data from nine published sub-acute toxicity tests in order to compare the findings with those of the author's. Line plots, box plots and bar plots show the pattern of response. Dose-response relationships are easily seen. A "bootstrap" test compares the mean absolute differences across dose groups. In four out of seven papers where the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL was estimated by the authors, it was set too high according to the bootstrap test, suggesting that possible toxicity is under-estimated.
Using Cumulative Sum Statistics to Detect Inconsistencies in Unproctored Internet Testing
Tendeiro, Jorge N.; Meijer, Rob R.; Schakel, Lolle; Maij-de Meij, Annette M.
2013-01-01
Unproctored Internet Testing (UIT) is becoming more popular in personnel recruitment and selection. A drawback of UIT is that cheating is easy and, therefore, a proctored test is often administered after an UIT procedure. To detect inconsistent test scores from UIT, a cumulative sum procedure (CUSUM
Hilborn, Robert C.
1997-04-01
The connection between the spin of particles and the permutation symmetry ("statistics") of multiparticle states lies at the heart of much of atomic, molecular, condensed matter, and nuclear physics. The spin-statistics theorem of relativistic quantum field theory seems to provide a theoretical basis for this connection. There are, however, loopholes (O. W. Greenberg, Phys. Rev. D 43, 4111 (1991).) that allow for a field theory of identical particles whose statistics interpolate smoothly between that of bosons and fermions. Thus, it is up to experiment to reveal how closely nature follows the usual spin- statistics connection. After reviewing experiments that provide stringent limits on possible violations of the spin-statistics connection for electrons, I shall describe recent analogous experiments for spin-0 particles (R. C. Hilborn and C. L. Yuca, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 2844 (1996).) using diode laser spectroscopy of the A-band of molecular oxygen near 760 nm. These experiments show that the probability of finding two ^16O nuclei (spin-0 particles) in an antisymmetric state is less than 1ppm. I shall also discuss proposals to test the spin-statistics connection for photons.
Statistical tests with accurate size and power for balanced linear mixed models.
Muller, Keith E; Edwards, Lloyd J; Simpson, Sean L; Taylor, Douglas J
2007-08-30
The convenience of linear mixed models for Gaussian data has led to their widespread use. Unfortunately, standard mixed model tests often have greatly inflated test size in small samples. Many applications with correlated outcomes in medical imaging and other fields have simple properties which do not require the generality of a mixed model. Alternately, stating the special cases as a general linear multivariate model allows analysing them with either the univariate or multivariate approach to repeated measures (UNIREP, MULTIREP). Even in small samples, an appropriate UNIREP or MULTIREP test always controls test size and has a good power approximation, in sharp contrast to mixed model tests. Hence, mixed model tests should never be used when one of the UNIREP tests (uncorrected, Huynh-Feldt, Geisser-Greenhouse, Box conservative) or MULTIREP tests (Wilks, Hotelling-Lawley, Roy's, Pillai-Bartlett) apply. Convenient methods give exact power for the uncorrected and Box conservative tests. Simulations demonstrate that new power approximations for all four UNIREP tests eliminate most inaccuracy in existing methods. In turn, free software implements the approximations to give a better choice of sample size. Two repeated measures power analyses illustrate the methods. The examples highlight the advantages of examining the entire response surface of power as a function of sample size, mean differences, and variability.
Small, coded, pill-sized tracers embedded in grain are proposed as a method for grain traceability. A sampling process for a grain traceability system was designed and investigated by applying probability statistics using a science-based sampling approach to collect an adequate number of tracers fo...
Gastwirth, Joseph L.
1987-01-01
The increased use of screening tests for drug use or antibodies to the HTLV-III (AIDS) virus, as well as pre-employment polygraph testing, has raised concerns about the reliability of the results of these procedures. This paper reviews the mathematical model underlying the analysis of data from screening tests. In addition to the known formulas for the proportion of positive (negative) classifications that are correct, we provide a large sample approximation to their standard errors. The resu...
Sommer, Helle Mølgaard; Holst, Helle; Spliid, Henrik;
1995-01-01
and the growth of the biomass are described by the Monod model consisting of two nonlinear coupled first-order differential equations. The objective of this study was to estimate the kinetic parameters in the Monod model and to test whether the parameters from the three identical experiments have the same values....... Estimation of the parameters was obtained using an iterative maximum likelihood method and the test used was an approximative likelihood ratio test. The test showed that the three sets of parameters were identical only on a 4% alpha level....
2007-11-02
specification of one of the tests coming from the DIEHARD 69 [1] battery of tests. It is based on the result of Kovalenko (1972) and also formulated in Marsaglia ...References for Test [1] George Marsaglia , DIEHARD: a battery of tests of randomness. http://stat.fsu.edu/˜geo/diehard.html. [2] I. N. Kovalenko (1972...Distribution of the linear rank of a random ma- trix,” Theory of Probability and its Applications. 17, pp. 342-346. [3] G. Marsaglia and L. H. Tsay
Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric
2008-01-01
In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…
Shastri, Hiteshri; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar
2017-02-01
Forecasting of extreme precipitation events at a regional scale is of high importance due to their severe impacts on society. The impacts are stronger in urban regions due to high flood potential as well high population density leading to high vulnerability. Although significant scientific improvements took place in the global models for weather forecasting, they are still not adequate at a regional scale (e.g., for an urban region) with high false alarms and low detection. There has been a need to improve the weather forecast skill at a local scale with probabilistic outcome. Here we develop a methodology with quantile regression, where the reliably simulated variables from Global Forecast System are used as predictors and different quantiles of rainfall are generated corresponding to that set of predictors. We apply this method to a flood-prone coastal city of India, Mumbai, which has experienced severe floods in recent years. We find significant improvements in the forecast with high detection and skill scores. We apply the methodology to 10 ensemble members of Global Ensemble Forecast System and find a reduction in ensemble uncertainty of precipitation across realizations with respect to that of original precipitation forecasts. We validate our model for the monsoon season of 2006 and 2007, which are independent of the training/calibration data set used in the study. We find promising results and emphasize to implement such data-driven methods for a better probabilistic forecast at an urban scale primarily for an early flood warning.
Munshi, D; Melott, A L; Munshi, Dipak; Coles, Peter; Melott, Adrian L.
1999-01-01
We develop a diagrammatic technique to represent the multi-point cumulative probability density function (CPDF) of mass fluctuations in terms of the statistical properties of individual collapsed objects and relate this to other statistical descriptors such as cumulants, cumulant correlators and factorial moments. We use this approach to establish key scaling relations describing various measurable statistical quantities if clustering follows a simple general scaling ansatz, as expected in hierarchical models. We test these detailed predictions against high-resolution numerical simulations. We show that, when appropriate variables are used, the count probability distribution function (CPDF) and void probability distribution function (VPF) shows clear scaling properties in the non-linear regime. Generalising the results to the two-point count probability distribution function (2CPDF), and the bivariate void probability function (2VPF) we find good match with numerical simulations. We explore the behaviour of t...
Multilevel Factor Analysis by Model Segregation: New Applications for Robust Test Statistics
Schweig, Jonathan
2014-01-01
Measures of classroom environments have become central to policy efforts that assess school and teacher quality. This has sparked a wide interest in using multilevel factor analysis to test measurement hypotheses about classroom-level variables. One approach partitions the total covariance matrix and tests models separately on the…
WANG Ronghua; FEI Heliang
2004-01-01
In this note, the tampered failure rate model is generalized from the step-stress accelerated life testing setting to the progressive stress accelerated life testing for the first time. For the parametric setting where the scale parameter satisfying the equation of the inverse power law is Weibull, maximum likelihood estimation is investigated.
Hybrid Statistical Testing for Nuclear Material Accounting Data and/or Process Monitoring Data
Ticknor, Lawrence O. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hamada, Michael Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sprinkle, James K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Burr, Thomas Lee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-04-14
The two tests employed in the hybrid testing scheme are Page’s cumulative sums for all streams within a Balance Period (maximum of the maximums and average of the maximums) and Crosier’s multivariate cumulative sum applied to incremental cumulative sums across Balance Periods. The role of residuals for both kinds of data is discussed.
Deacon, S. Helene; Leung, Dilys
2013-01-01
This study tested the diverging predictions of recent theories of children's learning of spelling regularities. We asked younger (Grades 1 and 2) and older (Grades 3 and 4) elementary school-aged children to choose the correct endings for words that varied in their morphological structure. We tested the impacts of semantic frequency by…
El Korso Mohammed
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract The statistical resolution limit (SRL, which is defined as the minimal separation between parameters to allow a correct resolvability, is an important statistical tool to quantify the ultimate performance for parametric estimation problems. In this article, we generalize the concept of the SRL to the multidimensional SRL (MSRL applied to the multidimensional harmonic retrieval model. In this article, we derive the SRL for the so-called multidimensional harmonic retrieval model using a generalization of the previously introduced SRL concepts that we call multidimensional SRL (MSRL. We first derive the MSRL using an hypothesis test approach. This statistical test is shown to be asymptotically an uniformly most powerful test which is the strongest optimality statement that one could expect to obtain. Second, we link the proposed asymptotic MSRL based on the hypothesis test approach to a new extension of the SRL based on the Cramér-Rao Bound approach. Thus, a closed-form expression of the asymptotic MSRL is given and analyzed in the framework of the multidimensional harmonic retrieval model. Particularly, it is proved that the optimal MSRL is obtained for equi-powered sources and/or an equi-distributed number of sensors on each multi-way array.
De Meeûs, Thierry
2014-03-01
In population genetics data analysis, researchers are often faced to the problem of decision making from a series of tests of the same null hypothesis. This is the case when one wants to test differentiation between pathogens found on different host species sampled from different locations (as many tests as number of locations). Many procedures are available to date but not all apply to all situations. Finding which tests are significant or if the whole series is significant, when tests are independent or not do not require the same procedures. In this note I describe several procedures, among the simplest and easiest to undertake, that should allow decision making in most (if not all) situations population geneticists (or biologists) should meet, in particular in host-parasite systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Proïa, Frédéric
2012-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic for the general stable $p-$order autoregressive process when the driven noise is given by a first-order autoregressive process. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for both the least squares estimator of the unknown vector parameter of the autoregressive process as well as for the serial correlation estimator associated with the driven noise. In addition, the almost sure rates of convergence of our estimates are also provided. Then, we prove the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality for the Durbin-Watson statistic. Finally, we propose a new bilateral statistical procedure for testing the presence of a significative first-order residual autocorrelation and we also explain how our procedure performs better than the commonly used Box-Pierce and Ljung-Box statistical tests for white noise applied to the stable autoregressive process, even on small-sized samples.
Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen
2015-12-01
Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.
Dimitri, P. S.; Wall, C. 3rd; Oas, J. G.; Rauch, S. D.
2001-01-01
Meniere's disease (MD) and migraine associated dizziness (MAD) are two disorders that can have similar symptomatologies, but differ vastly in treatment. Vestibular testing is sometimes used to help differentiate between these disorders, but the inefficiency of a human interpreter analyzing a multitude of variables independently decreases its utility. Our hypothesis was that we could objectively discriminate between patients with MD and those with MAD using select variables from the vestibular test battery. Sinusoidal harmonic acceleration test variables were reduced to three vestibulo-ocular reflex physiologic parameters: gain, time constant, and asymmetry. A combination of these parameters plus a measurement of reduced vestibular response from caloric testing allowed us to achieve a joint classification rate of 91%, independent quadratic classification algorithm. Data from posturography were not useful for this type of differentiation. Overall, our classification function can be used as an unbiased assistant to discriminate between MD and MAD and gave us insight into the pathophysiologic differences between the two disorders.
Hughes, William O.; McNelis, Anne M.
2010-01-01
The Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft was launched on an Atlas IIAS launch vehicle on its mission to observe planet Earth in late 1999. Prior to launch, the new design of the spacecraft's pyroshock separation system was characterized by a series of 13 separation ground tests. The analysis methods used to evaluate this unusually large amount of shock data will be discussed in this paper, with particular emphasis on population distributions and finding statistically significant families of data, leading to an overall shock separation interface level. The wealth of ground test data also allowed a derivation of a Mission Assurance level for the flight. All of the flight shock measurements were below the EOS Terra Mission Assurance level thus contributing to the overall success of the EOS Terra mission. The effectiveness of the statistical methodology for characterizing the shock interface level and for developing a flight Mission Assurance level from a large sample size of shock data is demonstrated in this paper.
Drop-Weight Impact Test on U-Shape Concrete Specimens with Statistical and Regression Analyses
Xue-Chao Zhu
2015-09-01
Full Text Available According to the principle and method of drop-weight impact test, the impact resistance of concrete was measured using self-designed U-shape specimens and a newly designed drop-weight impact test apparatus. A series of drop-weight impact tests were carried out with four different masses of drop hammers (0.875, 0.8, 0.675 and 0.5 kg. The test results show that the impact resistance results fail to follow a normal distribution. As expected, U-shaped specimens can predetermine the location of the cracks very well. It is also easy to record the cracks propagation during the test. The maximum of coefficient of variation in this study is 31.2%; it is lower than the values obtained from the American Concrete Institute (ACI impact tests in the literature. By regression analysis, the linear relationship between the first-crack and ultimate failure impact resistance is good. It can suggested that a minimum number of specimens is required to reliably measure the properties of the material based on the observed levels of variation.
Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health
Eric Miller
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.
Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health.
Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D
Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.
Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health
Eric Miller
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of- care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.
Fujita, André; Takahashi, Daniel Y; Patriota, Alexandre G; Sato, João R
2014-12-10
Statistical inference of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is an important tool in neuroscience investigation. One major hypothesis in neuroscience is that the presence or not of a psychiatric disorder can be explained by the differences in how neurons cluster in the brain. Therefore, it is of interest to verify whether the properties of the clusters change between groups of patients and controls. The usual method to show group differences in brain imaging is to carry out a voxel-wise univariate analysis for a difference between the mean group responses using an appropriate test and to assemble the resulting 'significantly different voxels' into clusters, testing again at cluster level. In this approach, of course, the primary voxel-level test is blind to any cluster structure. Direct assessments of differences between groups at the cluster level seem to be missing in brain imaging. For this reason, we introduce a novel non-parametric statistical test called analysis of cluster structure variability (ANOCVA), which statistically tests whether two or more populations are equally clustered. The proposed method allows us to compare the clustering structure of multiple groups simultaneously and also to identify features that contribute to the differential clustering. We illustrate the performance of ANOCVA through simulations and an application to an fMRI dataset composed of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and controls. Results show that there are several differences in the clustering structure of the brain between them. Furthermore, we identify some brain regions previously not described to be involved in the ADHD pathophysiology, generating new hypotheses to be tested. The proposed method is general enough to be applied to other types of datasets, not limited to fMRI, where comparison of clustering structures is of interest. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A Statistical Test of Walrasian Equilibrium by Means of Complex Networks Theory
Bargigli, Leonardo; Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea
2016-09-01
We represent an exchange economy in terms of statistical ensembles for complex networks by introducing the concept of market configuration. This is defined as a sequence of nonnegative discrete random variables {w_{ij}} describing the flow of a given commodity from agent i to agent j. This sequence can be arranged in a nonnegative matrix W which we can regard as the representation of a weighted and directed network or digraph G. Our main result consists in showing that general equilibrium theory imposes highly restrictive conditions upon market configurations, which are in most cases not fulfilled by real markets. An explicit example with reference to the e-MID interbank credit market is provided.
A Statistical Test of Walrasian Equilibrium by Means of Complex Networks Theory
Bargigli, Leonardo; Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea
2016-10-01
We represent an exchange economy in terms of statistical ensembles for complex networks by introducing the concept of market configuration. This is defined as a sequence of nonnegative discrete random variables {w_{ij}} describing the flow of a given commodity from agent i to agent j. This sequence can be arranged in a nonnegative matrix W which we can regard as the representation of a weighted and directed network or digraph G. Our main result consists in showing that general equilibrium theory imposes highly restrictive conditions upon market configurations, which are in most cases not fulfilled by real markets. An explicit example with reference to the e-MID interbank credit market is provided.
Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: a test of climate feedback by water vapor.
Soden, Brian J; Wetherald, Richard T; Stenchikov, Georgiy L; Robock, Alan
2002-04-26
The sensitivity of Earth's climate to an external radiative forcing depends critically on the response of water vapor. We use the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere that was observed after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo to test model predictions of the climate feedback from water vapor. Here, we first highlight the success of the model in reproducing the observed drying after the volcanic eruption. Then, by comparing model simulations with and without water vapor feedback, we demonstrate the importance of the atmospheric drying in amplifying the temperature change and show that, without the strong positive feedback from water vapor, the model is unable to reproduce the observed cooling. These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.
Larsson, Peter; Burlin, Lennart; Jakobsson, Erkki; Henriksson-Larsén, Karin
2002-07-01
The aim of this study was to determine the physiological responses to orienteering by examining the interrelationships between the information provided by a differential global positioning system (dGPS) about an orienteer's route, speed and orienteering mistakes, portable metabolic gas analyser data during orienteering and data from incremental treadmill tests. Ten male orienteers completed a treadmill threshold test and a field test; the latter was performed on a 4.3 km course on mixed terrain with nine checkpoints. The anaerobic threshold, threshold of decompensated metabolic acidosis, respiratory exchange ratio, onset of blood lactate accumulation and peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) were determined from the treadmill test. Time to complete the course, total distance covered, mean speed, distance and timing of orienteering mistakes, mean oxygen uptake, mean relative heart rate, mean respiratory exchange ratio and mean running economy were computed from the dGPS data and metabolic gas analyser data. Correlation analyses showed a relationship between a high anaerobic threshold and few orienteering mistakes (r = - 0.64, P < 0.05). A high threshold of decompensated metabolic acidosis and VO2peak were related to a fast overall time (r = -0.70 to -0.72, P < 0.05) and high running speed (r = 0.64 to 0.79, P < 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively), and were thus the best predictors of performance.
Downward, L.; Booth, C.H.; Lukens, W.W.; Bridges, F.
2006-07-25
A general problem when fitting EXAFS data is determining whether particular parameters are statistically significant. The F-test is an excellent way of determining relevancy in EXAFS because it only relies on the ratio of the fit residual of two possible models, and therefore the data errors approximately cancel. Although this test is widely used in crystallography (there, it is often called a 'Hamilton test') and has been properly applied to EXAFS data in the past, it is very rarely applied in EXAFS analysis. We have implemented a variation of the F-test adapted for EXAFS data analysis in the RSXAP analysis package, and demonstrate its applicability with a few examples, including determining whether a particular scattering shell is warranted, and differentiating between two possible species or two possible structures in a given shell.
Gofford, Jason; Tombesi, Francesco; Braito, Valentina; Turner, T Jane; Miller, Lance; Cappi, Massimo
2012-01-01
We present the results of a new spectroscopic study of Fe K-band absorption in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Using data obtained from the Suzaku public archive we have performed a statistically driven blind search for Fe XXV Hea and/or Fe XXVI Lyb absorption lines in a large sample of 51 type 1.0-1.9 AGN. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations we find statistically significant absorption is detected at E>6.7 keV in 20/51 sources at the P(MC)>95% level, which corresponds to ~40% of the total sample. In all cases, individual absorption lines are detected independently and simultaneously amongst the two (or three) available XIS detectors which confirms the robustness of the line detections. The most frequently observed outflow phenomenology consists of two discrete absorption troughs corresponding to Fe XXV Hea and Fe XXVI Lyb at a common velocity shift. From xstar fitting the mean column density and ionisation parameter for the Fe K absorption components are log(NH/cm^{-2})~23 and log(xi/erg cm s^{-1})~4.5, ...
The dual process model of ideology and prejudice: a longitudinal test during a global recession.
Sibley, Chris G; Duckitt, John
2013-01-01
This study tested the pathways between personality, social worldviews, and ideology, predicted by the Dual Process Model (DPM) of ideology and prejudice. These paths were tested using a full cross-lagged panel design administered to a New Zealand community sample in early 2008 (before the effects of the global financial crisis reached New Zealand) and again in 2009 (when the crisis was near its peak; n = 247). As hypothesized, low openness to experience predicted residualized change in dangerous worldview, which in turn predicted right-wing authoritarianism (RWA). Low agreeableness predicted competitive worldview, which in turn predicted social dominance orientation (SDO). RWA and SDO also exerted unexpected reciprocal effects on worldviews. This study provides the most comprehensive longitudinal test of the DPM to date, and was conducted during a period of systemic instability when the causal effects predicted by the DPM should be, and were, readily apparent.
Lancé, Marcus D
2015-01-01
Thrombosis and hemorrhage are major contributors to morbidity and mortality. The traditional laboratory tests do not supply enough information to diagnose and treat patients timely and according to their phenotype. Global hemostasis tests might improve this circumstance. The viscoelastic tests (ROTEM/TEG) demonstrated to ameliorate treatment of acute hemorrhage in terms of decreased amount of transfusion and lowered costs. Thrombin generation measurement is indicative for thrombosis and might also become an important tool in managing hemorrhage. While the clot waveform analysis is less well known it could be of worth in staging sepsis patients, early detection of DIC and also in diagnosis and treatment monitoring of hemophiliac patients. Although in different degree all three methods still need more background, standardization and acceptance before a wide clinical application.
The Probability of Exceedance as a Nonparametric Person-Fit Statistic for Tests of Moderate Length
Tendeiro, Jorge N.; Meijer, Rob R.
2013-01-01
To classify an item score pattern as not fitting a nonparametric item response theory (NIRT) model, the probability of exceedance (PE) of an observed response vector x can be determined as the sum of the probabilities of all response vectors that are, at most, as likely as x, conditional on the test
Tests of Mediation: Paradoxical Decline in Statistical Power as a Function of Mediator Collinearity
Beasley, T. Mark
2014-01-01
Increasing the correlation between the independent variable and the mediator ("a" coefficient) increases the effect size ("ab") for mediation analysis; however, increasing a by definition increases collinearity in mediation models. As a result, the standard error of product tests increase. The variance inflation caused by…
Godleski, Stephanie A.; Ostrov, Jamie M.
2010-01-01
The present study used both categorical and dimensional approaches to test the association between relational and physical aggression and hostile intent attributions for both relational and instrumental provocation situations using the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development longitudinal Study of Early Child Care and Youth…
Paisley, Larry
2002-01-01
The evolution of monitoring and surveillance for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the phase of passive surveillance that began in the United Kingdom in 1988 until the present is described. Currently, surveillance for BSE in Europe consists of mass testing of cattle slaughtered for human...
Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhou, Chang-Song; Zhou, Tao; Zhu, Jun-Fang
2009-01-01
The pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) is a serious on-going global public crisis. Understanding its spreading dynamics is of fundamental importance for both public health and scientific researches. In this paper, we investigate the spreading patterns of influenza A and find the Zipf's law of the distributions of confirmed cases in different levels. Similar scaling properties are also observed for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and bird cases of avian influenza (H5N1). To explore the underlying mechanism, a model considering the control effects on both the local growth and transregional transmission is proposed, which shows that the strong control effects are responsible for the scaling properties. Although strict control measures for interregional travelers are helpful to delay the outbreak in the regions without local cases, our analysis suggests that the focus should be turned to local prevention after the outbreak of local cases. This work provides not only a deeper understanding of the generic mech...
Crandall, Philip G; Mauromoustakos, Andy; O'Bryan, Corliss A; Thompson, Kevin C; Yiannas, Frank; Bridges, Kerry; Francois, Catherine
2017-10-01
In 2000, the Consumer Goods Forum established the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI) to increase the safety of the world's food supply and to harmonize food safety regulations worldwide. In 2013, a university research team in conjunction with Diversey Consulting (Sealed Air), the Consumer Goods Forum, and officers of GFSI solicited input from more than 15,000 GFSI-certified food producers worldwide to determine whether GFSI certification had lived up to these expectations. A total of 828 usable questionnaires were analyzed, representing about 2,300 food manufacturing facilities and food suppliers in 21 countries, mainly across Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and North America. Nearly 90% of these certified suppliers perceived GFSI as being beneficial for addressing their food safety concerns, and respondents were eight times more likely to repeat the certification process knowing what it entailed. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of these food manufacturers would choose to go through the certification process again even if certification were not required by one of their current retail customers. Important drivers for becoming GFSI certified included continuing to do business with an existing customer, starting to do business with new customer, reducing the number of third-party food safety audits, and continuing improvement of their food safety program. Although 50% or fewer respondents stated that they saw actual increases in sales, customers, suppliers, or employees, significantly more companies agreed than disagreed that there was an increase in these key performance indicators in the year following GFSI certification. A majority of respondents (81%) agreed that there was a substantial investment in staff time since certification, and 50% agreed there was a significant capital investment. This survey is the largest and most representative of global food manufacturers conducted to date.
Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore
2014-04-01
Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.
Relationship between the COI test and other sensory profiles by statistical procedures
Calvente, J. J.
1994-04-01
Full Text Available Relationships between 139 sensory attributes evaluated on 32 samples of virgin olive oil have been analysed by a statistical sensory wheel that guarantees the objectiveness and prediction of its conclusions concerning the best clusters of attributes: green, bitter-pungent, ripe fruit, fruity, sweet fruit, undesirable attributes and two miscellanies. The procedure allows the sensory notes evaluated for potential consumers of this edible oil from the point of view of its habitual consumers to be understood with special reference to The European Communities Regulation n-2568/91. Five different panels: Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch and British, have been used to evaluate the samples. Analysis of the relationships between stimuli perceived by aroma, flavour, smell, mouthfeel and taste together with Linear Sensory Profiles based on Fuzzy Logic are provided. A 3-dimensional plot indicates the usefulness of the proposed procedure in the authentication of different varieties of virgin olive oil. An analysis of the volatile compounds responsible for most of the attributes gives weight to the conclusions. Directions which promise to improve the E.G. Regulation on the sensory quality of olive oil are also given.
An improved classification of foci for carcinogenicity testing by statistical descriptors.
Callegaro, Giulia; Stefanini, Federico Mattia; Colacci, Annamaria; Vaccari, Monica; Urani, Chiara
2015-10-01
Carcinogenesis is a multi-step process involving genetic alterations and non-genotoxic mechanisms. The in vitro cell transformation assay (CTA) is a promising tool for both genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogenesis. CTA relies on the ability of cells (e.g. BALB/c 3T3 mouse embryo fibroblasts) to develop a transformed phenotype after the treatment with suspected carcinogens. The classification of the transformed phenotype is based on coded morphological features, which are scored under a light microscope by trained experts. This procedure is time-consuming and somewhat prone to subjectivity. Herewith we provide a promising approach based on image analysis to support the scoring of malignant foci in BALB/c 3T3 CTA. The image analysis system is a quantitative approach, based on measuring features of malignant foci: dimension, multilayered growth, and invasivity into the surrounding monolayer of non-transformed cells. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate the probability for each focus to be transformed as a function of three statistical image descriptors. The estimated sensitivity of the derived classifier (untransformed against Type III) was 0.9, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value equal to 0.90 under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve.
Gannon, J.L.
2012-01-01
Statistics on geomagnetic storms with minima below -50 nanoTesla are compiled using a 25-year span of the 1-minute resolution disturbance index, U.S. Geological Survey Dst. A sudden commencement, main phase minimum, and time between the two has a magnitude of 35 nanoTesla, -100 nanoTesla, and 12 hours, respectively, at the 50th percentile level. The cumulative distribution functions for each of these features are presented. Correlation between sudden commencement magnitude and main phase magnitude is shown to be low. Small, medium, and large storm templates at the 33rd, 50th, and 90th percentile are presented and compared to real examples. In addition, the relative occurrence of rates of change in Dst are presented.
EEG-based Drowsiness Detection for Safe Driving Using Chaotic Features and Statistical Tests
Mardi, Zahra; Ashtiani, Seyedeh Naghmeh Miri; Mikaili, Mohammad
2011-01-01
Electro encephalography (EEG) is one of the most reliable sources to detect sleep onset while driving. In this study, we have tried to demonstrate that sleepiness and alertness signals are separable with an appropriate margin by extracting suitable features. So, first of all, we have recorded EEG signals from 10 volunteers. They were obliged to avoid sleeping for about 20 hours before the test. We recorded the signals while subjects did a virtual driving game. They tried to pass some barriers...
Pater, Liana; Miclea, Şerban; Izvercian, Monica
2016-06-01
This paper considers the impact of SMEs' annual turnover upon its marketing activities (in terms of marketing responsibility, strategic planning and budgeting). Empirical results and literature reviews unveil that SMEs managers incline to partake in planned and profitable marketing activities, depending on their turnover's level. Thus, using the collected data form 131 Romanian SMEs managers, we have applied the Chi-Square Test in order to validate or invalidate three research assumptions (hypotheses), created starting from the empirical and literature findings.
Statistical test for detecting community structure in real-valued edge-weighted graphs
Tokuda, Tomoki
2016-01-01
We propose a novel method to test the existence of community structure of undirected real-valued edge-weighted graph. The method is based on Wigner semicircular law on the asymptotic behavior of the random distribution for eigenvalues of a real symmetric matrix. We provide a theoretical foundation for this method and report on its performance in synthetic and real data, suggesting that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.
Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech
2011-10-01
Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.
Rafdzah Zaki
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Objective(s: Reliability measures precision or the extent to which test results can be replicated. This is the first ever systematic review to identify statistical methods used to measure reliability of equipment measuring continuous variables. This studyalso aims to highlight the inappropriate statistical method used in the reliability analysis and its implication in the medical practice. Materials and Methods: In 2010, five electronic databases were searched between 2007 and 2009 to look for reliability studies. A total of 5,795 titles were initially identified. Only 282 titles were potentially related, and finally 42 fitted the inclusion criteria. Results: The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC is the most popular method with 25 (60% studies having used this method followed by the comparing means (8 or 19%. Out of 25 studies using the ICC, only 7 (28% reported the confidence intervals and types of ICC used. Most studies (71% also tested the agreement of instruments. Conclusion: This study finds that the Intra-class Correlation Coefficient is the most popular method used to assess the reliability of medical instruments measuring continuous outcomes. There are also inappropriate applications and interpretations of statistical methods in some studies. It is important for medical researchers to be aware of this issue, and be able to correctly perform analysis in reliability studies.
Adams, Michael C; Barbano, David M
2015-06-01
Our objective was to develop a statistical approach that could be used to determine whether a handler's fat, protein, or other solids mid-infrared (MIR) spectrophotometer test values were different, on average, from a milk regulatory laboratory's MIR test values when split-sampling test values are not available. To accomplish this objective, the Proc GLM procedure of SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC) was used to develop a multiple linear regression model to evaluate 4 mo of MIR producer payment testing data (112 to 167 producers per month) from 2 different MIR instruments. For each of the 4 mo and each of the 2 components (fat or protein), the GLM model was Response=Instrument+Producer+Date+2-Way Interactions+3-Way Interaction. Instrument was significant in determining fat and protein tests for 3 of the 4 mo, and Producer was significant in determining fat and protein tests for all 4 mo. This model was also used to establish fat and protein least significant differences (LSD) between instruments. Fat LSD between instruments ranged from 0.0108 to 0.0144% (α=0.05) for the 4 mo studied, whereas protein LSD between instruments ranged from 0.0046 to 0.0085% (α=0.05). In addition, regression analysis was used to determine the effects of component concentration and date of sampling on fat and protein differences between 2 MIR instruments. This statistical approach could be performed monthly to document a regulatory laboratory's verification that a given handler's instrument has obtained a different test result, on average, from that of the regulatory laboratory's and that an adjustment to producer payment may be required.
Glas, C. A. W.
In a previous study (1998), how to evaluate whether adaptive testing data used for online calibration sufficiently fit the item response model used by C. Glas was studied. Three approaches were suggested, based on a Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistic, a Wald statistic, and a cumulative sum (CUMSUM) statistic respectively. For all these methods,…
State-Trait Decomposition of Name Letter Test Scores and Relationships With Global Self-Esteem.
Perinelli, Enrico; Alessandri, Guido; Donnellan, M Brent; Łaguna, Mariola
2017-01-09
The Name Letter Test (NLT) assesses the degree that participants show a preference for an individual's own initials. The NLT was often thought to measure implicit self-esteem, but recent literature reviews do not equivocally support this hypothesis. Several authors have argued that the NLT is most strongly associated with the state component of self-esteem. The current research uses a modified STARTS model to (a) estimate the percentage of stable and transient components of the NLT and (b) estimate the covariances between stable/transient components of the NLT and stable/transient components of self-esteem and positive and negative affect. Two longitudinal studies were conducted with different time lags: In Study 1, participants were assessed daily for 7 consecutive days, whereas in Study 2, participants were assessed weekly for 8 consecutive weeks. Participants also completed a battery of questionnaires including global self-esteem, positive affect, and negative affect. In both studies, the NLT showed (a) high stability across time, (b) a high percentage of stable variance, (c) no significant covariance with stable and transient factors for global self-esteem, and (d) a different pattern of correlations with stable and transient factors of affect than global self-esteem. Collectively, these results further undermine the claim that the NLT is a valid measure of implicit self-esteem. Future work is needed to identify theoretically grounded correlates of the NLT. (PsycINFO Database Record
Saccomani, Maria Pia; Audoly, Stefania; Bellu, Giuseppina; D'Angiò, Leontina
2010-04-01
DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems) is a recently developed computer algebra software tool which can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear dynamic models described by differential equations involving polynomial or rational functions. Global identifiability is a fundamental prerequisite for model identification which is important not only for biological or medical systems but also for many physical and engineering systems derived from first principles. Lack of identifiability implies that the parameter estimation techniques may not fail but any obtained numerical estimates will be meaningless. The software does not require understanding of the underlying mathematical principles and can be used by researchers in applied fields with a minimum of mathematical background. We illustrate the DAISY software by checking the a priori global identifiability of two benchmark nonlinear models taken from the literature. The analysis of these two examples includes comparison with other methods and demonstrates how identifiability analysis is simplified by this tool. Thus we illustrate the identifiability analysis of other two examples, by including discussion of some specific aspects related to the role of observability and knowledge of initial conditions in testing identifiability and to the computational complexity of the software. The main focus of this paper is not on the description of the mathematical background of the algorithm, which has been presented elsewhere, but on illustrating its use and on some of its more interesting features. DAISY is available on the web site http://www.dei.unipd.it/ approximately pia/.
Davis-Sharts, J
1986-10-01
Maslow's hierarchy of basic human needs provides a major theoretical framework in nursing science. The purpose of this study was to empirically test Maslow's need theory, specifically at the levels of physiological and security needs, using a hologeistic comparative method. Thirty cultures taken from the 60 cultural units in the Health Relations Area Files (HRAF) Probability Sample were found to have data available for examining hypotheses about thermoregulatory (physiological) and protective (security) behaviors practiced prior to sleep onset. The findings demonstrate there is initial worldwide empirical evidence to support Maslow's need hierarchy.
Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Larsen, Rasmus; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær
2002-01-01
This work deals with the analysis of the shape of the human ear canal. It is described how a dense surface point distribution model of the human ear canal is built based on a training set of laser scanned ear impressions and a sparse set of anatomical landmarks placed by an expert. The dense...... surface models are built by using the anatomical landmarks to warp a template mesh onto all shapes in the training set. Testing the gender related differences is done by initially reducing the dimensionality using principal component analysis of the vertices of the warped meshes. The number of components...
EEG-based Drowsiness Detection for Safe Driving Using Chaotic Features and Statistical Tests.
Mardi, Zahra; Ashtiani, Seyedeh Naghmeh Miri; Mikaili, Mohammad
2011-05-01
Electro encephalography (EEG) is one of the most reliable sources to detect sleep onset while driving. In this study, we have tried to demonstrate that sleepiness and alertness signals are separable with an appropriate margin by extracting suitable features. So, first of all, we have recorded EEG signals from 10 volunteers. They were obliged to avoid sleeping for about 20 hours before the test. We recorded the signals while subjects did a virtual driving game. They tried to pass some barriers that were shown on monitor. Process of recording was ended after 45 minutes. Then, after preprocessing of recorded signals, we labeled them by drowsiness and alertness by using times associated with pass times of the barriers or crash times to them. Then, we extracted some chaotic features (include Higuchi's fractal dimension and Petrosian's fractal dimension) and logarithm of energy of signal. By applying the two-tailed t-test, we have shown that these features can create 95% significance level of difference between drowsiness and alertness in each EEG channels. Ability of each feature has been evaluated by artificial neural network and accuracy of classification with all features was about 83.3% and this accuracy has been obtained without performing any optimization process on classifier.
Cohn, T.A.; England, J.F.; Berenbrock, C.E.; Mason, R.R.; Stedinger, J.R.; Lamontagne, J.R.
2013-01-01
he Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as “less-than” values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.
Rey deCastro, B; Neuberg, Donna
2007-05-30
Biological assays often utilize experimental designs where observations are replicated at multiple levels, and where each level represents a separate component of the assay's overall variance. Statistical analysis of such data usually ignores these design effects, whereas more sophisticated methods would improve the statistical power of assays. This report evaluates the statistical performance of an in vitro MCF-7 cell proliferation assay (E-SCREEN) by identifying the optimal generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) that accurately represents the assay's experimental design and variance components. Our statistical assessment found that 17beta-oestradiol cell culture assay data were best modelled with a GLMM configured with a reciprocal link function, a gamma error distribution, and three sources of design variation: plate-to-plate; well-to-well, and the interaction between plate-to-plate variation and dose. The gamma-distributed random error of the assay was estimated to have a coefficient of variation (COV) = 3.2 per cent, and a variance component score test described by X. Lin found that each of the three variance components were statistically significant. The optimal GLMM also confirmed the estrogenicity of five weakly oestrogenic polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 17, 49, 66, 74, and 128). Based on information criteria, the optimal gamma GLMM consistently out-performed equivalent naive normal and log-normal linear models, both with and without random effects terms. Because the gamma GLMM was by far the best model on conceptual and empirical grounds, and requires only trivially more effort to use, we encourage its use and suggest that naive models be avoided when possible. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Nielsen, Allan A.; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning
2016-10-01
Test statistics for comparison of real (as opposed to complex) variance-covariance matrices exist in the statistics literature [1]. In earlier publications we have described a test statistic for the equality of two variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated p-value [2]. We showed their application to bitemporal change detection and to edge detection [3] in multilook, polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data in the covariance matrix representation [4]. The test statistic and the associated p-value is described in [5] also. In [6] we focussed on the block-diagonal case, we elaborated on some computer implementation issues, and we gave examples on the application to change detection in both full and dual polarization bitemporal, bifrequency, multilook SAR data. In [7] we described an omnibus test statistic Q for the equality of k variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution. We also described a factorization of Q = R2 R3 … Rk where Q and Rj determine if and when a difference occurs. Additionally, we gave p-values for Q and Rj. Finally, we demonstrated the use of Q and Rj and the p-values to change detection in truly multitemporal, full polarization SAR data. Here we illustrate the methods by means of airborne L-band SAR data (EMISAR) [8,9]. The methods may be applied to other polarimetric SAR data also such as data from Sentinel-1, COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, ALOS, and RadarSat-2 and also to single-pol data. The account given here closely follows that given our recent IEEE TGRS paper [7]. Selected References [1] Anderson, T. W., An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis, John Wiley, New York, third ed. (2003). [2] Conradsen, K., Nielsen, A. A., Schou, J., and Skriver, H., "A test statistic in the complex Wishart distribution and its application to change detection in polarimetric SAR data," IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 41(1): 4-19, 2003. [3] Schou, J
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and Its Relevance for the Global Security
Dáša ADAŠKOVÁ
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT is one of important international nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament measures. One of its pillars is the verification mechanism that has been built as an international system of nuclear testing detection to enable the control of observance of the obligations anchored in the CTBT. Despite the great relevance to the global non-proliferation and disarmament efforts, the CTBT is still not in force. The main aim of the article is to summarize the importance of the CTBT and its entry into force not only from the international relations perspective but also from the perspective of the technical implementation of the monitoring system.
Fertitta, D. A.; Macdonald, A. M.; Rypina, I.
2015-12-01
In the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, it became critical to determine how radionuclides, both from atmospheric deposition and direct ocean discharge, were spreading in the ocean. One successful method used drifter observations from the Global Drifter Program (GDP) to predict the timing of the spread of surface contamination. U.S. coasts are home to a number of nuclear power plants as well as other industries capable of leaking contamination into the surface ocean. Here, the spread of surface contamination from a hypothetical accident at the existing Pilgrim nuclear power plant on the coast of Massachusetts is used as an example to show how the historical drifter dataset can be used as a prediction tool. Our investigation uses a combined dataset of drifter tracks from the GDP and the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center. Two scenarios are examined to estimate the spread of surface contamination: a local direct leakage scenario and a broader atmospheric deposition scenario that could result from an explosion. The local leakage scenario is used to study the spread of contamination within and beyond Cape Cod Bay, and the atmospheric deposition scenario is used to study the large-scale spread of contamination throughout the North Atlantic Basin. A multiple-iteration method of estimating probability makes best use of the available drifter data. This technique, which allows for direct observationally-based predictions, can be applied anywhere that drifter data are available to calculate estimates of the likelihood and general timing of the spread of surface contamination in the ocean.
Global Environmental Micro Sensors Test Operations in the Natural Environment (GEMSTONE
Mark ADAMS
2007-10-01
Full Text Available ENSCO, Inc. is developing an innovative atmospheric observing system known as Global Environmental Micro Sensors (GEMS. The GEMS concept features an integrated system of miniaturized in situ, airborne probes measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and vector wind velocity. In order for the probes to remain airborne for long periods of time, their design is based on a helium-filled super-pressure balloon. The GEMS probes are neutrally buoyant and carried passively by the wind at predetermined levels. Each probe contains on-board satellite communication, power generation, processing, and geolocation capabilities. ENSCO has partnered with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC Weather Office for a project called GEMS Test Operations in the Natural Environment (GEMSTONE. The goal of the GEMSTONE project was to build and field-test a small system of prototype probes in the Earth’s atmosphere. This paper summarizes the 9-month GEMSTONE project (Sep 2006 – May 2007 including probe and system engineering as well as experiment design and data analysis from laboratory and field tests. These tests revealed issues with reliability, sensor accuracy, electronics miniaturization, and sub-system optimization. Nevertheless, the success of the third and final free flight test provides a solid foundation to move forward in follow on projects addressing these issues as highlighted in the technology roadmap for future GEMS development.
Seismic waveform inversion best practices: regional, global and exploration test cases
Modrak, Ryan; Tromp, Jeroen
2016-09-01
Reaching the global minimum of a waveform misfit function requires careful choices about the nonlinear optimization, preconditioning and regularization methods underlying an inversion. Because waveform inversion problems are susceptible to erratic convergence associated with strong nonlinearity, one or two test cases are not enough to reliably inform such decisions. We identify best practices, instead, using four seismic near-surface problems, one regional problem and two global problems. To make meaningful quantitative comparisons between methods, we carry out hundreds of inversions, varying one aspect of the implementation at a time. Comparing nonlinear optimization algorithms, we find that limited-memory BFGS provides computational savings over nonlinear conjugate gradient methods in a wide range of test cases. Comparing preconditioners, we show that a new diagonal scaling derived from the adjoint of the forward operator provides better performance than two conventional preconditioning schemes. Comparing regularization strategies, we find that projection, convolution, Tikhonov regularization and total variation regularization are effective in different contexts. Besides questions of one strategy or another, reliability and efficiency in waveform inversion depend on close numerical attention and care. Implementation details involving the line search and restart conditions have a strong effect on computational cost, regardless of the chosen nonlinear optimization algorithm.
Mieth, Bettina; Kloft, Marius; Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Sonnenburg, Sören; Vobruba, Robin; Morcillo-Suárez, Carlos; Farré, Xavier; Marigorta, Urko M.; Fehr, Ernst; Dickhaus, Thorsten; Blanchard, Gilles; Schunk, Daniel; Navarro, Arcadi; Müller, Klaus-Robert
2016-11-01
The standard approach to the analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is based on testing each position in the genome individually for statistical significance of its association with the phenotype under investigation. To improve the analysis of GWAS, we propose a combination of machine learning and statistical testing that takes correlation structures within the set of SNPs under investigation in a mathematically well-controlled manner into account. The novel two-step algorithm, COMBI, first trains a support vector machine to determine a subset of candidate SNPs and then performs hypothesis tests for these SNPs together with an adequate threshold correction. Applying COMBI to data from a WTCCC study (2007) and measuring performance as replication by independent GWAS published within the 2008-2015 period, we show that our method outperforms ordinary raw p-value thresholding as well as other state-of-the-art methods. COMBI presents higher power and precision than the examined alternatives while yielding fewer false (i.e. non-replicated) and more true (i.e. replicated) discoveries when its results are validated on later GWAS studies. More than 80% of the discoveries made by COMBI upon WTCCC data have been validated by independent studies. Implementations of the COMBI method are available as a part of the GWASpi toolbox 2.0.
SHI Yukun; YANG Xiangning
2005-01-01
The rarefaction analysis has been conducted to test the species diversity changes of the Early and Middle Permian fusulinacean fauna in South China. The results reveal that the number of species dramatically increased since the earliest Permian and quickly reached the maximum value in the early Zisongian representing the highest species diversity for the whole Early and Middle Permian. The species diversity stabilized in the plateau through the Zisongian;however, it started to decline in the following Longlinian and sustained a longstanding low level during the mid-Early Permian. With the appearance of new fusulinacean taxa with septulum structures, the number of species raised again in the late-Early Permian, followed by a decline in the Middle Permian Neoschwagerina simplex zone. Although the species diversity increased apparently in the Kuhfengian, it never rebounded back to the same level as in the Early Permian.In the mid-Middle Permian, species diversity began to decrease continuously and led to the disappearance of most fusulinacean species by the end of the Middle Permian.
Statistical analysis on the fluence factor of surveillance test data of Korean nuclear power plants
Lee, Gyeong Geun; Kim, Min Chul; Yoon, Ji Hyun; Lee, Bong Sang; Lim, Sang Yeob; Kwon, Jun Hyun [Nuclear Materials Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2017-06-15
The transition temperature shift (TTS) of the reactor pressure vessel materials is an important factor that determines the lifetime of a nuclear power plant. The prediction of the TTS at the end of a plant’s lifespan is calculated based on the equation of Regulatory Guide 1.99 revision 2 (RG1.99/2) from the US. The fluence factor in the equation was expressed as a power function, and the exponent value was determined by the early surveillance data in the US. Recently, an advanced approach to estimate the TTS was proposed in various countries for nuclear power plants, and Korea is considering the development of a new TTS model. In this study, the TTS trend of the Korean surveillance test results was analyzed using a nonlinear regression model and a mixed-effect model based on the power function. The nonlinear regression model yielded a similar exponent as the power function in the fluence compared with RG1.99/2. The mixed-effect model had a higher value of the exponent and showed superior goodness of fit compared with the nonlinear regression model. Compared with RG1.99/2 and RG1.99/3, the mixed-effect model provided a more accurate prediction of the TTS.
Bjøntegaard, Øyvind; Krauss, Matias; Budelmann, Harald
2015-01-01
This report presents the Round-Robin (RR) program and test results including a statistical evaluation of the RILEM TC195-DTD committee named “Recommendation for test methods for autogenous deformation (AD) and thermal dilation (TD) of early age concrete”. The task of the committee was to investigate the linear test set-up for AD and TD measurements (Dilation Rigs) in the period from setting to the end of the hardening phase some weeks after. These are the stress-inducing deformations in a hardening concrete structure subjected to restraint conditions. The main task was to carry out an RR program on testing of AD of one concrete at 20 °C isothermal conditions in Dilation Rigs. The concrete part materials were distributed to 10 laboratories (Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and USA), and in total 30 tests on AD were carried out. Some supporting tests were also performed, as well as a smaller RR on cement paste. The committee has worked out a test procedure recommenda...
V R Durai; Rashmi Bhardwaj
2014-07-01
The output from Global Forecasting System (GFS) T574L64 operational at India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi is used for obtaining location specific quantitative forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures over India in the medium range time scale. In this study, a statistical bias correction algorithm has been introduced to reduce the systematic bias in the 24–120 hour GFS model location specific forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures for 98 selected synoptic stations, representing different geographical regions of India. The statistical bias correction algorithm used for minimizing the bias of the next forecast is Decaying Weighted Mean (DWM), as it is suitable for small samples. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the skill of Direct Model Output (DMO) and Bias Corrected (BC) GFS for location specific forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures over India. The performance skill of 24–120 hour DMO and BC forecast of GFS model is evaluated for all the 98 synoptic stations during summer (May–August 2012) and winter (November 2012–February 2013) seasons using different statistical evaluation skill measures. The magnitude of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for BC GFS forecast is lower than DMO during both summer and winter seasons. The BC GFS forecasts have higher skill score as compared to GFS DMO over most of the stations in all day-1 to day-5 forecasts during both summer and winter seasons. It is concluded from the study that the skill of GFS statistical BC forecast improves over the GFS DMO remarkably and hence can be used as an operational weather forecasting system for location specific forecast over India.
Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel
2016-07-01
A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of field and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.
Wang, Hong; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Dowd, Peter A.; Yang, Yongguo
2017-09-01
This paper provides a solution to the problem of estimating the mean value of near-land-surface temperature over a relatively large area (here, by way of example, applied to mainland Spain covering an area of around half a million square kilometres) from a limited number of weather stations covering a non-representative (biased) range of altitudes. As evidence mounts for altitude-dependent global warming, this bias is a significant problem when temperatures at high altitudes are under-represented. We correct this bias by using altitude as a secondary variable and using a novel clustering method for identifying geographical regions (clusters) that maximize the correlation between altitude and mean temperature. In addition, the paper provides an improved regression kriging estimator, which is optimally determined by the cluster analysis. The optimal areal values of near-land-surface temperature are used to generate time series of areal temperature averages in order to assess regional changes in temperature trends. The methodology is applied to records of annual mean temperatures over the period 1950-2011 across mainland Spain. The robust non-parametric Theil-Sen method is used to test for temperature trends in the regional temperature time series. Our analysis shows that, over the 62-year period of the study, 78% of mainland Spain has had a statistically significant increase in annual mean temperature.
Matney, M.
2012-01-01
A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth's equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.
Guillaume Brysbaert; Sebastian Noth; Arndt Benecke
2007-01-01
We have previously developed a combined signal/variance distribution model that accounts for the particular statistical properties of datasets generated on the Applied Biosystems AB1700 transcriptome system. Here we show that this model can be efficiently used to generate synthetic datasets with statistical properties virtually identical to those of the actual data by aid of the JAVA application ace.map creator 1.0 that we have developed. The fundamentally different structure of AB1700 transcriptome profiles requires re-evaluation, adaptation, or even redevelopment of many of the standard microarray analysis methods in order to avoid misinterpretation of the data on the one hand, and to draw full benefit from their increased specificity and sensitivity on the other hand. Our composite data model and the ace.map creator 1.0 application thereby not only present proof of the correctness of our parameter estimation, but also provide a tool for the generation of synthetic test data that will be useful for further development and testing of analysis methods.
Yang, Y.; Liu, W.
2017-09-01
To solve the problems of existing method of change detection using fully polarimetric SAR which not takes full advantage of polarimetric information and the result of false alarm rate of which is high, a method is proposed based on test statistic and Gaussian mixture model in this paper. In the case of the flood disaster in Wuhan city in 2016, difference image is obtained by the likelihoodratio parameter which is built using coherency matrix C3 or covariance matrix T3 of fully polarimetric SAR based on test statistic, and it becomes a reality that the change information is automatic extracted by the parameter of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) of difference image based on the expectation maximization (EM) iterative algorithm. The experimental results show that the overall accuracy of change detection results can be improved and false alarm rate can be reduced using this method by comparison with traditional constant false alarm rate (CFAR) method. Thus the validity and feasibility of the method is demonstrated.
Development and initial test of the University of Wisconsin global isentropic-sigma model
Zapotocny, Tom H.; Johnson, Donald R.; Reames, Fred M.
1994-01-01
The description of a global version of the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) model and the results from an initial numerical weather prediction experiment are presented in this paper. The main objectives of this initial test are to (1) discuss theta-sigma model development and computer requirements, (2) demonstrate the ability of the UW theta-sigma model for global numerical weather prediction using realistic orography and parameterized physical processes, and (3) compare the transport of an inert trace constituent against a nominally 'identical' sigma coordinate model. Initial and verifying data for the 5-day simulations presented in this work were supplied by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. The time period studied is 1-6 February 1985. This validation experiment demonstrates that the global UW theta-sigma model produces a realistic 5-day simulation of the mass and momentum distributions when compared to both the identical sigma model and GEOS-1 verification. Root-mean-square errors demonstrate that the theta-sigma model is slightly more accurate than the nominally identical sigma model with respect to standard synoptic variables. Of particular importance, the UW theta-sigma model displays a distinct advantage over the conventional sigma model with respect to the prognostic simulation of inert trace constituent transport in amplifying baroclinic waves of the extratropics. This is especially true in the upper troposphere and stratosphere where the spatial integrity and conservation of an inert trace constituent is severely compromised in the sigma model compared to the theta-sigma model.
Nacelle Chine Installation Based on Wind-Tunnel Test Using Efficient Global Optimization
Kanazaki, Masahiro; Yokokawa, Yuzuru; Murayama, Mitsuhiro; Ito, Takeshi; Jeong, Shinkyu; Yamamoto, Kazuomi
Design exploration of a nacelle chine installation was carried out. The nacelle chine improves stall performance when deploying multi-element high-lift devices. This study proposes an efficient design process using a Kriging surrogate model to determine the nacelle chine installation point in wind-tunnel tests. The design exploration was conducted in a wind-tunnel using the JAXA high-lift aircraft model at the JAXA Large-scale Low-speed Wind Tunnel. The objective was to maximize the maximum lift. The chine installation points were designed on the engine nacelle in the axial and chord-wise direction, while the geometry of the chine was fixed. In the design process, efficient global optimization (EGO) which includes Kriging model and genetic algorithm (GA) was employed. This method makes it possible both to improve the accuracy of the response surface and to explore the global optimum efficiently. Detailed observations of flowfields using the Particle Image Velocimetry method confirmed the chine effect and design results.
Pedretti, D.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Bolster, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Benson, D.
2012-04-01
For risk assessment and adequate decision making regarding remediation strategies in contaminated aquifers, solute fate in the subsurface must be modeled correctly. In practical situations, hydrodynamic transport parameters are obtained by fitting procedures, that aim to mathematically reproduce solute breakthrough (BTC) observed in the field during tracer tests. In recent years, several methods have been proposed (curve-types, moments, nonlocal formulations) but none of them combine the two main characteristic effects of convergent flow tracer tests (which are the most used tests in the practice): the intrinsic non-stationarity of the convergent flow to a well and the ubiquitous multiscale hydraulic heterogeneity of geological formations. These two effects separately have been accounted for by a lot of methods that appear to work well. Here, we investigate both effects at the same time via numerical analysis. We focus on the influence that measurable statistical properties of the aquifers (such as the variance and the statistical geometry of correlation scales) have on the shape of BTCs measured at the pumping well during convergent flow tracer tests. We built synthetic multigaussian 3D fields of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields with variable statistics. A well is located in the center of the domain to reproduce a forced gradient towards it. Constant-head values are imposed on the boundaries of the domains, which have 251x251x100 cells. Injections of solutes take place by releasing particles at different distances from the well and using a random walk particle tracking scheme with constant local coefficient of dispersivity. The results show that BTCs partially display the typical anomalous behavior that has been commonly referred to as the effect of heterogeneity and connectivity (early and late arrival times of solute differ from the one predicted by local formulations). Among the most salient features, the behaviors of BTCs after the peak (the slope
Nondestructive Testing of Metallic Cables Based on a Homogenized Model and Global Measurements
Valdemar Melicher
2010-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a simple, quick, and cost-effective method for nondestructive eddy-current testing of metallic cables. Inclusions in the cross section of the cable are detected on the basis of certain global data: hysteresis loop measurements for different frequencies. We detect air-gap inclusions inside the cross section using a homogenized model. The problem, which can be understood as an inverse spectral problem, is posed in two dimensions. We consider its reduction to one dimension. The identifiability is studied. We obtain a uniqueness result for a single inclusion in 1D by two measurements for sufficiently low frequency. We study the sensibility of the inverse problem numerically. A study case with real data is performed to confirm the usefulness.
Some tests of wet tropospheric calibration for the CASA Uno Global Positioning System experiment
Dixon, T. H.; Wolf, S. Kornreich
1990-01-01
Wet tropospheric path delay can be a major error source for Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic experiments. Strategies for minimizing this error are investigted using data from CASA Uno, the first major GPS experiment in Central and South America, where wet path delays may be both high and variable. Wet path delay calibration using water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and residual delay estimation is compared with strategies where the entire wet path delay is estimated stochastically without prior calibration, using data from a 270-km test baseline in Costa Rica. Both approaches yield centimeter-level baseline repeatability and similar tropospheric estimates, suggesting that WVR calibration is not critical for obtaining high precision results with GPS in the CASA region.
Teillet, Phil M.; Thome, Kurtis J.; Fox, Nigel P.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.
2001-12-01
Calibration is critical for useful long-term data records, as well as independent data quality control. However, in the context of Earth observation sensors, post-launch calibration and the associated quality assurance perspective are far from operational. This paper explores the possibility of establishing a global instrumented and automated network of test sites (GIANTS) for post-launch radiometric calibration of Earth observation sensors. It is proposed that a small number of well-instrumented benchmark test sites and data sets for calibration be supported. A core set of sensors, measurements, and protocols would be standardized across all participating test sites and the measurement data sets would undergo identical processing at a central secretariat. The network would provide calibration information to supplement or substitute for on-board calibration, would reduce the effort required by individual agencies, and would provide consistency for cross-platform studies. Central to the GIANTS concept is the use of automation, communication, coordination, visibility, and education, all of which can be facilitated by greater use of advanced in-situ sensor and telecommunication technologies. The goal is to help ensure that the resources devoted to remote sensing calibration benefit the intended user community and facilitate the development of new calibration methodologies (research and development) and future specialists (education and training).
Kawamura, Kunio; Abe, Hiroshi
2004-01-01
It is obvious that, in the media fill test and process simulation test, positive numbers in total fills should not have any significant difference from zero or asepsis. There are many reports concerning the definition of "sterility" or "asepsis." However, any scientific and practical methods to demonstrate "no significant difference from zero" have not been reported up to now. The existing criteria, such as "less than 0.1%," "less than 0.05%," and "less than two positives" are not appropriate to assure the integrity of processes, and sometimes lead to erroneous results. The purpose of this report is to demonstrate novel, reasonable and practical methods and criteria based on scientific and statistical consideration. According to the ISO 13408-1 Aseptic Processing of Health Care Products, Part 1 (1998), General Requirement for Aseptic Processing, the action level for the number of positive units in media fill tests is specified as 0.1%, and the alert level is 0.05%. In this paper it is shown that the existing ISO standard and other official methods are inappropriate in that zero contaminated units (sterile product) is outside the confidence range of probable distribution of contaminated units, even though the contaminated units are less than 0.1% in larger numbers of fills, and even less than 0.05%. This indicates that the limit of 0.1% or 0.05% is inappropriate in cases of larger numbers of fills. For sterile products, the number of contaminated units other than "zero" at the statistical confidence range must be judged to be contaminated units in process and as non-sterile. In order to harmonize this criteria-"no significant difference from zero"-with the existing criteria, the new criteria may be combined with only the existing criteria of 0.05% in smaller number of fills.
Lefebvre, Vincent; Servais, Thomas; François, Louis; Averbuch, Olivier
2010-05-01
The causes of the well-known Late Ordovician-Hirnantian glaciation remain largely debated. This global cooling event is generally attributed to a severe decrease of atmospheric pCO2 during a time of general greenhouse climate but its duration is not fully determined. The climate perturbation is synchronous with one of the biggest biotic crisis of the Earth history. Some authors have shown that, considering the Ashgillian paleogeography, a drop in pCO2 below a threshold of 8x to 10x PAL (Present Atmospheric Level) may induce a decrease in temperature in high latitudes so that the installation of an ice-sheet on Gondwana could be possible. Such a process requires an intensification of silicate weathering and/or organic carbon burial that are the two major processes potentially driving a decrease in atmospheric pCO2 at the geologic time scale. The Late Ordovician is known to be a period of high mantellic activity marked by a lack of reversal magnetic field and high volcanic activity. Barnes (2004) and Courtillot and Olson (2007) link this process to a superplume event that may give rise to continental basalt flooding. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis with a global carbon cycle numerical box-model coupled with an Energy Balance Climate Model. The Model is an upgrade of that used by Grard et al. (2005) to simulate the environmental impact of the Siberian traps at the P/T boundary. The configuration of the box-model has been set using the Late Ordovician paleogeography. In each oceanic box, the model calculates the evolution of carbon, phosphorus and oxygen concentrations and alkalinity. It also calculates atmospheric pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic δ13C. We tested different scenarios of Large Igneous Province (LIP) emplacements and organic carbon cycle interactions simulating atmospheric pCO2 drops of amplitude large enough to produce the Hirnantian glaciation. We show that the hypothesis of low latitude LIP well accounts for the Late Ordovician climate
Barbosa, Fabiano Timbó; de Souza, Diego Agra
2010-01-01
Statistical analysis is necessary for adequate evaluation of the original article by the reader allowing him/her to better visualize and comprehend the results. The objective of the present study was to determine the frequency of the adequate use of statistical tests in original articles published in the Revista Brasileira de Anestesiologia from January 2008 to December 2009. Original articles published in the Revista Brasileira de Anestesiologia between January 2008 and December 2009 were selected. The use of statistical tests was deemed appropriate when the selection of the tests was adequate for continuous and categorical variables and for parametric and non-parametric tests, the correction factor was described when the use of multiple comparisons was reported, and the specific use of a statistical test for analysis of one variable was mentioned. Seventy-six original articles from a total of 179 statistical tests were selected. The frequency of the statistical tests used more often was: Chi-square 20.11%, Student t test 19.55%, ANOVA 10.05%, and Fisher exact test 9.49%. The frequency of the adequate use of statistical tests was 56.42% (95% CI 49.16% to 63.68%), erroneous use in 13.41% (95% CI 8.42% to 18.40%), and an inconclusive result in 30.16% (95% CI 23.44% to 36.88%). The frequency of inadequate use of statistical tests in the articles published by the Revista Brasileira de Anestesiologia between January 2008 and December 2009 was 56.42%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
Validation of Global EO Biophysical Products at JECAM Test Site in Ukraine
Skakun, Sergii; Kussul, Nataliia; Kravchenko, Oleksiy; Basarab, Ruslan; Ostapenko, Vadym; Yailymov, Bohdan; Shelestov, Andrii; Kolotii, Andrii; Mironov, Andrii
Efficient global agriculture monitoring requires appropriate validation of Earth observation (EO) products for different regions and cropping system. This problem is addressed within the Joint Experiment of Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) initiative which aims to develop monitoring and reporting protocols and best practices for a variety of global agricultural systems. Ukraine is actively involved into JECAM, and a JECAM Ukraine test site was officially established in 2011. The following problems are being solved within JECAM Ukraine: (i) crop identification and crop area estimation [1]; (ii) crop yield forecasting [2]; (iii) EO products validation. The following case study regions were selected for these purposes: (i) the whole Kyiv oblast (28,000 sq. km) indented for crop mapping and acreage estimation; (ii) intensive observation sub-site in Pshenichne which is a research farm from the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine and indented for crop biophysical parameters estimation; (iii) Lviv region for rape-seed identification and crop rotation control; (iv) Crimea region for crop damage assessment due to droughts, and illegial field detection. In 2013, Ukrainian JECAM test site was selected as one of the “Champion User” for the ESA Sentinel-2 for Agriculture project. The test site was observed with SPOT-4 and RapidEye satellites every 5 days. The collected images are then used to simulate Sentinel-2 images for agriculture purposes. JECAM Ukraine is responsible for collecting ground observation data for validation purposes, and is involved in providing user requirements for Sentinel-2 agriculture related products. In particular, three field campaigns to characterize the vegetation biophysical parameters at the Pshenichne test site were carried out: First campaign - 14th to 17th of May 2013; second campaign - 12th to 15th of June 2013; third campaign - 14th to 17th of July 2013. Digital Hemispheric Photographs (DHP) images were
Anagnostopoulou, Kyriaki; Hatzinikita, Vassilia; Christidou, Vasilia; Dimopoulos, Kostas
2013-01-01
The paper explores the relationship of the global and the local assessment discourses as expressed by Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) test items and school-based examinations, respectively. To this end, the paper compares PISA test items related to living systems and the context of life, health, and environment, with Greek…
Carvajal, Scott C; Evans, Richard I; Nash, Susan G; Getz, J Greg
2002-06-01
Grounded in theories of global positive expectancies and social influences of behavior, this investigation posited a model in which global positive expectancies are related to substance use as mediated by attitudes, subjective norms, self-efficacy, and intentions. Using a cohort sample (n = 525), structural equation modeling was employed to test the hypothesized predictions of future substance use. The findings suggest that, relative to adolescents with lower global positive expectancies, adolescents with higher global positive expectancies use substances less frequently over time because of their protective attitudinal and control-oriented perceptions towards that behavior. Additionally, results from the current investigation also extend prior findings on the factor structure of global positive expectancies, suggesting these expectancies can be viewed as a second-order factor representing optimism and two components of hope-agency and pathways.
Evans, Mark
2016-12-01
A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.
Forbes, Valery E; Aufderheide, John; Warbritton, Ryan; van der Hoeven, Nelly; Caspers, Norbert
2007-03-01
This study presents results of the effects of bisphenol A (BPA) on adult egg production, egg hatchability, egg development rates and juvenile growth rates in the freshwater gastropod, Marisa cornuarietis. We observed no adult mortality, substantial inter-snail variability in reproductive output, and no effects of BPA on reproduction during 12 weeks of exposure to 0, 0.1, 1.0, 16, 160 or 640 microg/L BPA. We observed no effects of BPA on egg hatchability or timing of egg hatching. Juveniles showed good growth in the control and all treatments, and there were no significant effects of BPA on this endpoint. Our results do not support previous claims of enhanced reproduction in Marisa cornuarietis in response to exposure to BPA. Statistical power analysis indicated high levels of inter-snail variability in the measured endpoints and highlighted the need for sufficient replication when testing treatment effects on reproduction in M. cornuarietis with adequate power.
DeYoung, P.A.; Gelderloos, C.J.; Kortering, D.; Sarafa, J.; Zienert, K.; Gordon, M.S.; Fineman, B.J.; Gilfoyle, G.P.; Lu, X.; McGrath, R.L.; de Castro Rizzo, D.M.; Alexander, J.M.; Auger, G.; Kox, S.; Vaz, L.C.; Beck, C.; Henderson, D.J.; Kovar, D.G.; Vineyard, M.F. (Department of Physics, Hope College, Holland, Michigan 49423 (US) Department of Physics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794 Department of Chemistry, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794 Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439)
1990-05-01
We present data for small-angle particle-particle correlations from the reactions 80, 140, 215, and 250 MeV {sup 16}O+{sup 27}Al{r arrow}{ital p}-{ital p} or {ital p}-{ital d}. The main features of these data are anticorrelations for small relative momenta ({le}25 MeV/{ital c}) that strengthen with increasing bombarding energy. Statistical model calculations have been performed to predict the mean lifetimes for each step of evaporative decay, and then simulate the trajectories of the particle pairs and the resulting particle correlations. This simulation accounts very well for the trends of the data and can provide an important new test for the hypothesis of equilibration on which the model is built.
Yalcin, C; Rauscher, T; Kiss, G G; Özkan, N; Güray, R T; Halász, Z; Szücs, T; Fülöp, Zs; Korkulu, Z; Somorjai, E
2015-01-01
Astrophysical reaction rates, which are mostly derived from theoretical cross sections, are necessary input to nuclear reaction network simulations for studying the origin of $p$ nuclei. Past experiments have found a considerable difference between theoretical and experimental cross sections in some cases, especially for ($\\alpha$,$\\gamma$) reactions at low energy. Therefore, it is important to experimentally test theoretical cross section predictions at low, astrophysically relevant energies. The aim is to measure reaction cross sections of $^{107}$Ag($\\alpha$,$\\gamma$)$^{111}$In and $^{107}$Ag($\\alpha$,n)$^{110}$In at low energies in order to extend the experimental database for astrophysical reactions involving $\\alpha$ particles towards lower mass numbers. Reaction rate predictions are very sensitive to the optical model parameters and this introduces a large uncertainty into theoretical rates involving $\\alpha$ particles at low energy. We have also used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model calculations to s...
J. Q. Zhao
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Accurate and timely change detection of Earth’s surface features is extremely important for understanding relationships and interactions between people and natural phenomena. Many traditional methods of change detection only use a part of polarization information and the supervised threshold selection. Those methods are insufficiency and time-costing. In this paper, we present a novel unsupervised change-detection method based on quad-polarimetric SAR data and automatic threshold selection to solve the problem of change detection. First, speckle noise is removed for the two registered SAR images. Second, the similarity measure is calculated by the test statistic, and automatic threshold selection of KI is introduced to obtain the change map. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by the quad-pol SAR images acquired by Radarsat-2 over Wuhan of China.
Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James
2014-01-01
Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.
Andersen, C E; Ulbak, K; Damkjaer, A; Kirkegaard, P; Gravesen, P
2001-05-14
In Denmark, a new survey of indoor radon-222 has been carried out, 1-year alpha track measurements (CR-39) have been made in 3019 single-family houses. There are from 3 to 23 house measurements in each of the 275 municipalities. Within each municipality, houses have been selected randomly. One important outcome of the survey is the prediction of the fraction of houses in each municipality with an annual average radon concentration above 200 Bq m(-3). To obtain the most accurate estimate and to assess the associated uncertainties, a statistical model has been developed. The purpose of this paper is to describe the design of this model, and to report results of model tests. The model is based on a transformation of the data to normality and on analytical (conditionally) unbiased estimators of the quantities of interest. Bayesian statistics are used to minimize the effect of small sample size. In each municipality, the correction is dependent on the fraction of area where sand and gravel is a dominating surface geology. The uncertainty analysis is done with a Monte-Carlo technique. It is demonstrated that the weighted sum of all municipality model estimates of fractions above 200 Bq m(-3) (3.9% with 95%-confidence interval = [3.4,4.5]) is consistent with the weighted sum of the observations for Denmark taken as a whole (4.6% with 95%-confidence interval = [3.8,5.6]). The total number of single-family houses within each municipality is used as weight. Model estimates are also found to be consistent with observations at the level of individual counties. These typically include a few hundred house measurements. These tests indicate that the model is well suited for its purpose.
Evans, Paul; Wen, Frances K
2007-04-01
To investigate the extent to which Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) subscores predict the overall academic performance of osteopathic medical students. We examined the value of MCAT subscores in predicting students' global academic performance in osteopathic medical school, as defined by grade point average in basic science (basic GPA), clinical instruction (clinical GPA), cumulative grade point average (total GPA), and national licensing examination scores on the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination-USA (COMLEX-USA) Level 1 and Level 2. Subjects were 434 osteopathic medical students of the Oklahoma State University College of Osteopathic Medicine in Tulsa who either graduated or were expected to graduate between the years 1999 and 2003. Standard, multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted for each of the five performance variables to assess the relative importance of MCAT subtest scores and cumulative undergraduate GPA (total UGPA) in predicting academic performance. Total UGPA was the most important, significant predictor (beta=.13-.33) in overall student academic performance for all five analyzed variables. Less predictive of overall academic performance (beta=-.01-.21) were MCAT subcores. However, the MCAT biological sciences subscore was a significant predictor of basic GPA (beta=.14), the MCAT physical sciences subscore significantly predicted COMLEX-USA Level 1 scores (beta=.15), and the MCAT verbal reasoning subscore significantly predicted COMLEX-USA Level 2 scores (beta=.21). The subscore for the MCAT writing sample was not a significant predictor of overall academic performance. Total undergraduate GPA had the highest predictive value for academic performance as measured by basic GPA, clinical GPA, total GPA, and COMLEX-USA Level 1 and Level 2 scores. The present study found MCAT subscores to be of limited predictive value in determining global academic performance.
Meijer, Rob R.; van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.
In this study a cumulative-sum (CUSUM) procedure from the theory of Statistical Process Control was modified and applied in the context of person-fit analysis in a computerized adaptive testing (CAT) environment. Six person-fit statistics were proposed using the CUSUM procedure, and three of them could be used to investigate the CAT in online test…
Qasem, Mamun Ali Naji; Altrairy, Abdulrhman; Govil, Punita
2012-01-01
This research has aimed at constructing Criterion Referenced Test to measure the statistical competencies of the Post-graduate Students in Education Colleges in Yemeni Universities, at examining the validity of the test's grades (the descriptive validity and the Domain Selection Validity), at examining the test's grades Reliability according to…
Paek, Insu
2009-01-01
Three statistical testing procedures well-known in the maximum likelihood approach are the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests. Although well-known, the application of these three testing procedures in the logistic regression method to investigate differential item function (DIF) has not been rigorously made yet. Employing a variety of…
Weber, Benjamin; Lee, Sau L; Lionberger, Robert; Li, Bing V; Tsong, Yi; Hochhaus, Guenther
2013-04-01
Demonstration of equivalence in aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD) is one key component for establishing bioequivalence of orally inhaled drug products. We previously proposed a modified version of the Chi-square ratio statistic (mCSRS) for APSD equivalence testing and demonstrated that the median of the distribution of the mCSRS (MmCSRS) is a robust metric when test (T) and reference (R) cascade impactor (CI) profiles are identical. Here, we systematically evaluate the behavior of the MmCSRS when T and R CI profiles differ from each other in their mean deposition and variability on a single and multiple sites. All CI profiles were generated by Monte-Carlo simulations based upon modified actual CI data. Twenty thousand sets of 30 T and 30 R CI profiles were simulated for each scenario, and the behavior of the MmCSRS was correlated to metrics that characterize the difference between T and R product in mean deposition and variability. The two key findings were, first, that the MmCSRS is more sensitive to difference between T and R CI profiles on high deposition sites, and second, that a cut-off value for APSD equivalence testing based on the MmCSRS needs to be scaled on the variability of the R product. The former is considered as beneficial for equivalence testing of CI profiles as it decreases the likelihood of failing identical CI profiles by chance, in part, due to increasing analytical variability associated with lower deposition sites. The latter is expected to be important for consistently being able to discriminate equivalent from inequivalent CI profiles.
Horton, Pascal; Weingartner, Rolf; Obled, Charles; Jaboyedoff, Michel
2016-04-01
The Analogue Method (AM) aims at forecasting a local meteorological variable of interest (the predictand), often the daily precipitation total, on the basis of a statistical relationship with synoptic predictor variables. A certain number of similar situations are sampled in order to establish the empirical conditional distribution which is considered as the prediction for a given date. The method is used in operational medium-range forecasting in several hydropower companies or flood forecasting services, as well as in climate impact studies. The statistical relationship is usually established by means of a semi-automatic sequential procedure that has strong limitations: it is made of successive steps and thus cannot handle parameters dependencies, and it cannot automatically optimize certain parameters, such as the selection of the pressure levels and the temporal windows on which the predictors are compared. A global optimization technique based on Genetic Algorithms was introduced in order to surpass these limitations and to provide a fully automatic and objective determination of the AM parameters. The parameters that were previously assessed manually, such as the selection of the pressure levels and the temporal windows, on which the predictors are compared, are now automatically determined. The next question is: Are Genetic Algorithms able to select the meteorological variable, in a reanalysis dataset, that is the best predictor for the considered predictand, along with the analogy criteria itself? Even though we may not find better predictors for precipitation prediction that the ones often used in Europe, due to numerous other studies which consisted in systematic assessments, the ability of an automatic selection offers new perspectives in order to adapt the AM for new predictands or new regions under different meteorological influences.
Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.
2013-08-22
The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.
Aslan, B. [Universitaet Siegen, Holderlinstrasse 3, D-57068 Siegen (Germany)]. E-mail: aslan@physik.uni-siegen.de; Zech, G. [Universitaet Siegen, Holderlinstrasse 3, D-57068 Siegen (Germany)]. E-mail: zech@physik.uni-siegen.de
2005-02-01
We introduce the novel concept of statistical energy as a statistical tool. We define statistical energy of statistical distributions in a similar way as for electric charge distributions. Charges of opposite sign are in a state of minimum energy if they are equally distributed. This property is used to check whether two samples belong to the same parent distribution, to define goodness-of-fit tests and to unfold distributions distorted by measurement. The approach is binning-free and especially powerful in multidimensional applications.
Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Moltke, Ida; Albrechtsen, Anders
2013-01-01
A number of different statistics are used for detecting natural selection using DNA sequencing data, including statistics that are summaries of the frequency spectrum, such as Tajima's D. These statistics are now often being applied in the analysis of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data. However......, estimates of frequency spectra from NGS data are strongly affected by low sequencing coverage; the inherent technology dependent variation in sequencing depth causes systematic differences in the value of the statistic among genomic regions....
Biskaborn, B. K.; Lanckman, J.-P.; Lantuit, H.; Elger, K.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Cable, W. L.; Romanovsky, V. E.
2015-03-01
The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high
B. K. Biskaborn
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change
V C Vani; S Chatterjee
2008-05-01
Detection of periodic structures, hidden in random surfaces has been addressed by us for some time and the `extended matched filter' method, developed by us, has been shown to be effective in detecting the hidden periodic part from the light scattering data in circumstances where conventional data analysis methods cannot reveal the successive peaks due to scattering by the periodic part of the surface. It has been shown that if 0 is the coherence length of light on scattering from the rough part and is the wavelength of the periodic part of the surface, the extended matched filter method can detect hidden periodic structures for (0/) ≥ 0:11, while conventional methods are limited to much higher values ((0/) ≥ 0:33). In the method developed till now, the detection of periodic structures involves the detection of the central peak, first peak and second peak in the scattered intensity of light, located at scattering wave vectors = 0, , 2, respectively, where = 2/, their distinct identities being obfuscated by the fact that the peaks have width = 2/0 ≫ . The relative magnitudes of these peaks and the consequent problems associated in identifying them is discussed. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical goodness test is used to justify the identification of the peaks. This test is used to `reject' or `not reject' the null hypothesis which states that the successive peaks do exist. This test is repeated for various values of 0/, which leads to the conclusion that there is really a periodic structure hidden behind the random surface.
Zhan, Yimin; Mechefske, Chris K.
2007-07-01
Optimal maintenance decision analysis is heavily dependent on the accuracy of condition indicators. A condition indicator that is subject to such varying operating conditions as load is unable to provide precise condition information of the monitored object for making optimal operational maintenance decisions even if the maintenance program is established within a rigorous theoretical framework. For this reason, the performance of condition monitoring techniques applied to rotating machinery under varying load conditions has been a long-term concern and has attracted intensive research interest. Part I of this study proposed a novel technique based on adaptive autoregressive modeling and hypothesis tests. The method is able to automatically search for the optimal time-series model order and establish a compromised autoregressive model fitting based on the healthy gear motion residual signals under varying load conditions. The condition of the monitored gearbox is numerically represented by a modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic. Part II of this study is devoted to applications of the proposed technique to entire lifetime condition detection of three gearboxes with distinct physical specifications, distinct load conditions, and distinct failure modes. A comprehensive and thorough comparative study is conducted between the proposed technique and several counterparts. The detection technique is further enhanced by a proposed method to automatically identify and generate fault alerts with the aid of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and thus requires no supervision from maintenance personnel. Experimental analysis demonstrated that the proposed technique applied to automatic identification and generation of fault alerts also features two highly desirable properties, i.e. few false alerts and early alert for incipient faults. Furthermore, it is found that the proposed technique is able to identify two types of abnormalities, i.e. strong ghost components abruptly
Auchmann, Renate; Brönnimann, Stefan; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa
2016-04-01
For the correction of inhomogeneities in sub-daily temperature series, Auchmann and Brönnimann (2012) developed a physics-based model for one specific type of break, i.e. the transition from a Wild screen to a Stevenson screen at one specific station in Basel, Switzerland. The model is based solely on physical considerations, no relationships of the covariates to the differences between the parallel measurements have been investigated. The physics-based model requires detailed information on the screen geometry, the location, and includes a variety of covariates in the model. The model is mainly based on correcting the radiation error, including a modification by ambient wind. In this study we test the application of the model to another station, Zurich, experiencing the same type of transition. Furthermore we compare the performance of the physics based correction to purely statistical correction approaches (constant correction, correcting for annual cycle using spline). In Zurich the Wild screen was replaced in 1954 by the Stevenson screen, from 1954-1960 parallel temperature measurements in both screens were taken, which will be used to assess the performance of the applied corrections. For Zurich the required model input is available (i.e. three times daily observations of wind, cloud cover, pressure and humidity measurements, local times of sunset and sunrise). However, a large number of stations do not measure these additional input data required for the model, which hampers the transferability and applicability of the model to other stations. Hence, we test possible simplifications and generalizations of the model to make it more easily applicable to stations with the same type of inhomogeneity. In a last step we test whether other types of transitions (e.g., from a Stevenson screen to an automated weather system) can be corrected using the principle of a physics-based approach.
Accuracy tests of radiation schemes used in hot Jupiter Global Circulation Models
Amundsen, David Skålid; Tremblin, Pascal; Manners, James; Hayek, Wolfgang; Mayne, N J; Acreman, David M
2014-01-01
The treatment of radiation transport in global circulation models (GCMs) is crucial to correctly describe Earth and exoplanet atmospheric dynamics processes. The two-stream approximation and correlated-$k$ method are currently state-of-the-art approximations applied in both Earth and hot Jupiter GCM radiation schemes to facilitate rapid calculation of fluxes and heating rates. Their accuracy have been tested extensively for Earth-like conditions, but verification of the methods' applicability to hot Jupiter-like conditions is lacking in the literature. We are adapting the UK Met Office GCM, the Unified Model (UM), for the study of hot Jupiters, and present in this work the adaptation of the Edwards-Slingo radiation scheme based on the two-stream approximation and the correlated-$k$ method. We discuss the calculation of absorption coefficients from high temperature line lists and highlight the large uncertainty in the pressure-broadened line widths. We compare fluxes and heating rates obtained with our adapted...
McPherson, S; Buckwalter, G J; Tingus, K; Betz, B; Back, C
2000-10-01
Abbreviated versions of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) have been developed as time saving devices that provide accurate estimates of overall level of general intellectual functioning while decreasing test administration time. The Satz-Mogel short form of the WAIS-R has received substantial attention in the literature as an accurate measure of intellectual functions when compared with the Full WAIS-R. However, most studies comparing the Satz-Mogel version to the Full WAIS-R have only provided correlational analyses. Our study was an attempt to apply a more rigorous statistical methodology in determining if the Full WAIS-R and abbreviated versions are equivalent. We explored the impact of level of global mental status and age on the Satz-Mogel version. Although the two forms of the test correlated highly, repeated measures design indicated significant differences between Satz-Mogel and Full WAIS-R when participants were divided into groups based on level of global impairment and age. Our results suggest that the Satz-Mogel version of the test may not be equivalent to the full WAIS-R and is likely to misrepresent a patient's level of intellectual functioning, particularly for patients with progressive degenerative conditions. The implications of applying Satz-Mogel scoring to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-III (WAIS-III) are discussed.
Kudish, A.I. [Ben-Gurion Univ. of the Negev, Beersheba (Israel). Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Ianetz, A. [Israel Meteorological Service, Bet Dagan (Israel). Research and Development Div.
1996-04-01
The magnitude of the daily clearness index K{sub T} has been utilized to classify a day as either clear, partially cloudy or cloudy. The range of values for defining a day type was based upon a previous analysis of the Beer Sheva radiation database. These criteria were employed to partition the days according to type and the corresponding monthly average daily values for the clearness index, global, normal incidence and horizontal beam radiation were calculated. A statistical analysis was performed on each of the monthly average daily value subsets to help convey the shape of their respective distribution curves. The monthly average frequency of days according to type was also determined. Such an analysis of the solar radiation database for a particular site can be utilized to determine the relative merits of different types of solar energy conversion systems, e.g. concentrating vis-avis non-concentrating solar collector systems. The results of this analysis for Beer Sheva indicate that this region is very amenable to the utilization of non-concentrating solar energy conversion systems, since the combined frequency of both clear and partially cloudy days exceeds 80% annually. In addition, the Beer Sheva region is a prime candidate for the use of solar energy conversion systems utilizing concentrating collectors due to its relatively high frequency of clear day and the fact that the monthly average daily vales of the clearness index. (Author)
Global Testing under Sparse Alternatives: ANOVA, Multiple Comparisons and the Higher Criticism
Arias-Castro, Ery; Plan, Yaniv
2010-01-01
Testing for the significance of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear model, a staple of statistical analysis, goes back at least to the work of Fisher who introduced the analysis of variance (ANOVA). We study this problem under the assumption that the coefficient vector is sparse, a common situation in modern high-dimensional settings. Suppose the regression vector is of dimension p with S non-zero coefficients with S = p^{1 -alpha}. Under moderate sparsity levels, i.e. alpha 1/2. In such settings, a multiple comparison procedure is often preferred and we establish its optimality when alpha >= 3/4. However, these two very popular methods are suboptimal, and sometimes powerless, under moderately strong sparsity where 1/2 1/2. This optimality property is true for a variety of designs, including the classical (balanced) multi-way designs and more modern `p > n' designs arising in genetics and signal processing. In addition to the standard fixed effects model, we establish similar results for a rando...